45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Compliance with risk adjustment standards. 153.620 Section 153.620 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

Orthostatic hypertension as a risk factor for age-related macular degeneration: Evidence from the Irish longitudinal study on ageing.

PubMed

Bhuachalla, Bláithín Ní; McGarrigle, Christine A; O'Leary, Neil; Akuffo, Kwadwo Owusu; Peto, Tunde; Beatty, Stephen; Kenny, Rose Anne

2018-06-01

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of irreversible visual loss in developed countries. It is associated with vascular risk factors including hypertension. Dysregulated blood pressure (BP) behaviour including orthostatic hypertension (OHTN), hypotension (OH) and BP variability (BPV) are associated with end-organ damage, particularly in the brain. We investigated if abnormal orthostatic BP (OBP) was a risk factor for AMD, for which a vascular aetiology is implicated. A nationally representative, cross-sectional study was carried out 2009/2010 in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Beat-to-beat BP data, measured by digital photoplethysmography during active stand, was used to characterise OBP behaviour in the 30-110 s after standing. OH, OHTN, BPV and normal stabilisation recovery phenotypes were defined. AMD was identified following masked grading of 45° monoscopic colour retinal photographs, which were centred on the macula and taken with a NIDEK AFC-210 non-mydriatic auto-fundus camera. The relationship between OBP recovery phenotypes and AMD in 3750 adults aged ≥50 years was investigated using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusted for traditional AMD risk factors. From 30 to 110 s post active stand, systolic and diastolic OHTN was associated with increased odds of AMD after adjustment for demographics, health behaviours including smoking, family history of AMD, self-report (SR) diabetes, SR cataracts, objective hypertension and prescribed antihypertensives. No evidence of heterogeneity of OHTN effect was found between those who were hypertensive to those who were normotensive. This study provides evidence that OHTN may be an independent cardiovascular risk factor for AMD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: findings from the Andhra Pradesh eye disease study in South India.

PubMed

Krishnaiah, Sannapaneni; Das, Taraprasad; Nirmalan, Praveen K; Nutheti, Rishita; Shamanna, Bindiganavale R; Rao, Gullapalli N; Thomas, Ravi

2005-12-01

To assess prevalence, potential risk factors, and population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. A population-based study, using a stratified, random, cluster, systematic sampling strategy, was conducted in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India from 1996 to 2000. Participants from 94 clusters in one urban and three rural areas representative of the population of Andhra Pradesh underwent a detailed interview and a detailed dilated ocular evaluation by trained professionals. In this report, the authors present the prevalence estimates of AMD and examine the association of AMD with potential risk factors in persons aged 40 to 102 years (n = 3723). AMD was defined according to the international classification and grading system. Standard bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the potential risk factors for AMD. PAR% was calculated by Levin's formula. AMD was present in 71 subjects--an age-gender-area-adjusted prevalence of 1.82% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39%-2.25%). Risk factors that were significant in bivariate analyses were considered for multivariate logistic regression analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that the adjusted prevalence of AMD was significantly higher in those 60 years of age or older (odds ratio [OR], 3.55; 95% CI, 1.61-7.82) and history of prior cigar smoking (OR, 3.29; 95%CI, 1.42-7.57). Presence of cortical cataract and prior cataract surgery were significantly associated with increased prevalence of AMD (adjusted OR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.57-5.26 and 3.79; 95% CI, 2.1-6.78), respectively. The prevalence of AMD was significantly lower in light alcohol drinkers (adjusted OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.19-0.76) compared with nondrinkers. The PAR% for hypertension and heavy cigar smoking was 10% and 14%, respectively, in this population. The prevalence of AMD in this south Indian population is similar to those reported in other developed countries

Risk and Protective Factors for Psychological Adjustment and Grades among Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voydanoff, Patricia; Donnelly, Brenda W.

1999-01-01

Examines the ways in which two risk factors: negative peer behavior and time spent without an adult, and two protective factors: adolescent resources and parental behavior influence psychological adjustment and grades among adolescents ages 10 to 17 (N=745). Results indicate that negative peer behavior is inversely related to adolescent well…

Risk Adjustment for a Children's Capitation Rate

PubMed Central

Newhouse, Joseph P.; Sloss, Elizabeth M.; Manning, Willard G.; Keeler, Emmett B.

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual outpatient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping. PMID:10133708

Risk adjustment for a children's capitation rate.

PubMed

Newhouse, J P; Sloss, E M; Manning, W G; Keeler, E B

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual out-patient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping.

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Risk of obstetric anal sphincter injury increases with maternal age irrespective of parity: a population-based register study.

PubMed

Waldenström, Ulla; Ekéus, Cecilia

2017-09-15

Obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) is a rare but serious outcome of vaginal birth. Based on concerns about the increasing number of women who commence childbearing later than previous generation, this study aimed at investigating age-related risk of OASI in women of different parity. A population-based register study including 959,559 live singleton vaginal births recorded in the Swedish Medical Birth Register 1999 to 2011. In each parity group risks of OASI at age 25-29 years, 30-34 years, and ≥35 years compared with age < 25 years were investigated by logistic regression analyses, adjusted for year of birth, education, region of birth, smoking, Body Mass Index, infant birthweight and fetal presentation; and in parous women, history of OASI and cesarean section. Additional analyses also adjusted for mediating factors, such as epidural analgesia, episiotomy, and instrumental delivery, and maternal age-related morbidity. Rates of OASI were 6.6%, 2.3% and 0.9% in first, second and third births respectively. Age-related risk increased from 25-29 years in first births (Adjusted OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.59-1.72) and second births (Adjusted OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.58-2.01), and from 30-34 years in third births (Adjusted OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.00-2.56). In all parity groups the risk was doubled at age ≥ 35 years, compared with the respective reference group of women under 25 years. Adding mediating factors and maternal age-related morbidity only marginally reduced these risk estimates. Maternal age is an independent risk factor for OASI in first, second and third births. Although age-related risks by parity are relatively similar, more nulliparous than parous women will be exposed to OASI due to the higher baseline rate.

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to

The Association of Statin Use with Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression The Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 9

PubMed Central

Al-Holou, Shaza N.; Tucker, William R.; Agrón, Elvira; Clemons, Traci E.; Cukras, Catherine; Ferris, Frederick L.; Chew, Emily Y.

2015-01-01

Objective/purpose To evaluate the association of statin use with progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Design Preplanned, prospective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial of oral supplementation for age-related eye diseases. Subjects Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 participants, aged 50 to 85 years. Methods Factors, including age, gender, smoking status, aspirin use, and history of diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, angina, and stroke, all known to be associated with statin use, were included in a logistic regression model to estimate propensity scores for each participant. Age-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, with and without propensity score matching, were performed to evaluate the association of statin use with progression to late AMD. Analyses were also performed adjusting for the competing risk of death. Main Outcome Measures Baseline and annual stereoscopic fundus photographs were assessed centrally by masked graders for the development of late AMD, either neovascular AMD or geographic atrophy (GA). Results Of the 3791 participants (2462 with bilateral large drusen and 1329 with unilateral late AMD at baseline), 1659 (43.8%) were statin users. The overall analysis, with no matching of propensity scores and no adjustment for death as a competing risk, showed that statin use was not associated with progression to late AMD (hazard ratios [HR] of 1.08, 95% confidence intervals [CI] of 0.83–1.41, P=0.56). When matched for propensity scores and adjusted for death as a competing risk, the result was not statistically significant with HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.55–1.20, P=0.29. Further subgroup analyses of persons with or without late AMD at baseline to the various components of late AMD (neovascular, central geographic atrophy, or any geographic atrophy) also showed no statistically significant association of statin use with progression to AMD. Conclusions Statin use was not statistically significantly associated with the

The Association of Statin Use with Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression: The Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 9.

PubMed

Al-Holou, Shaza N; Tucker, William R; Agrón, Elvira; Clemons, Traci E; Cukras, Catherine; Ferris, Frederick L; Chew, Emily Y

2015-12-01

To evaluate the association of statin use with progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Preplanned, prospective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial of oral supplementation for age-related eye diseases. Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, aged 50 to 85 years. Factors, including age, gender, smoking status, aspirin use, and history of diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, angina, and stroke-all known to be associated with statin use-were included in a logistic regression model to estimate propensity scores for each participant. Age-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, with and without propensity score matching, were performed to evaluate the association of statin use with progression to late AMD. Analyses adjusting for the competing risk of death were also performed. Baseline and annual stereoscopic fundus photographs were assessed centrally by masked graders for the development of late AMD, either neovascular AMD or geographic atrophy (GA). Of the 3791 participants (2462 with bilateral large drusen and 1329 with unilateral late AMD at baseline), 1659 (43.8%) were statin users. The overall analysis, with no matching of propensity scores and no adjustment for death as a competing risk, showed that statin use was not associated with progression to late AMD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.41; P = 0.56). When matched for propensity scores and adjusted for death as a competing risk, the result was not statistically significant (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.55-1.20; P = 0.29). Furthermore, subgroup analyses of persons with or without late AMD at baseline and the various components of late AMD (neovascular AMD, central GA, or any GA) also showed no statistically significant association of statin use with progression to AMD. Statin use was not statistically significantly associated with progression to late AMD in the AREDS2 participants, and these findings are consistent with findings in the

45 CFR 153.365 - General oversight requirements for State-operated risk adjustment programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... risk adjustment programs. 153.365 Section 153.365 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program...

Risk Factors Associated with Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Objective: To investigate possible risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). Design: Case-control study. Participants: Of the 4757 persons enrolled in AREDS, 4519 persons aged 60 to 80 years were included in this study. The lesions associated with AMD ranged from absent in both eyes to advanced in one eye. Main Outcome Measures: Stereoscopic color fundus photographs of the macula were used to place participants into one of five groups, based on the frequency and severity of lesions associated with AMD. Participants with fewer than 15 small drusen served as the control group. Results: Staged model building techniques were used to compare each of the four case groups with the control group. Increased age was a consistent finding of all four of the case groups compared with the control group, and all the following associations were age adjusted. Persons with either intermediate drusen, extensive small drusen, or the pigment abnormalities associated with AMD (group 2) were more likely to be female, more likely to have a history of arthritis, and less likely to have a history of angina. Persons with one or more large drusen or extensive intermediate drusen (group 3) were more likely to use hydrochlorothiazide diuretics and more likely to have arthritis. Hypertension, hyperopia, presence of lens opacities, and white race were also found more frequently in this group as well as in persons with neovascular AMD (group 5). Only persons in group 5 were more likely to have an increased body mass index, whereas persons with geographic atrophy (group 4) as well as those in groups 3 and 5 were more likely to have completed fewer years in school or to be smokers. Those with geographic atrophy were also more likely to use thyroid hormones and antacids. Conclusions: Our findings for smoking and hypertension, which have been noted in previous studies, suggest that two important public health recommendations

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

2013-01-01

Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

Needs for further improvement: risk adjustment in the German health insurance system.

PubMed

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen

2003-07-01

The German risk adjustment mechanism is used only within the public system. It was introduced in two steps, 1994 and 1995. Because of the income-related contribution, which the insured pay directly to their sickness fund, income of the insured is equalized by the mechanism and causes the biggest part of the payments among the sickness funds. On the expenditure side age, gender, disability and entitlement for sickness allowances are used as risk adjusters. The mechanism is retrospective, calculating average costs for each of the 670 risk cells defined by the risk adjusters and using these "standardized expenditures" as a base for the payment a single sickness fund gets because of its risk structure. There do still exist incentives for risk selection. The experience shows that mostly the young and healthy are willing to change sickness funds motivated by lower contribution rates. This can be used and is used for self-selection. Another cause of risk selection is regional differences. The central suggestion of an expertise on behalf of the German Ministry of Health on experiences and improvement proposals is the change to a direct modeling of morbidity.

A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Rose, Sherri

2016-12-01

To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... program, the State may vary the amount and type of data collected, but the State must collect or calculate... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

[Risk-adjusted assessment: late-onset infection in neonates].

PubMed

Gmyrek, Dieter; Koch, Rainer; Vogtmann, Christoph; Kaiser, Annette; Friedrich, Annette

2011-01-01

The weak point of the countrywide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case mix of patients. As a result, this approach does not produce reliable benchmarking. The objective of this study was to adjust the result of the late-onset infection incidence of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal database of 41,055 newborns of the Saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2004 was analysed. Based on 18 possible risk factors, a logistic regression model was used to develop a specific risk predictor for the quality indicator "late-onset infection". The developed risk predictor for the incidence of late-onset infection could be described by 4 of the 18 analysed risk factors, namely gestational age, admission from home, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and B-streptococcal infection. The AUC(ROC) value of this quality indicator was 83.3%, which demonstrates its reliability. The hospital ranking based on the adjusted risk assessment was very different from hospital rankings before this adjustment. The average correction of ranking position was 4.96 for 35 clinics. The application of the risk adjustment method proposed here allows for a more objective comparison of the incidence of the quality indicator "late onset infection" among different hospitals. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

Age-Adjustment and Related Epidemiology Rates in Education and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, John D.; Kruckman, Laurence; George, Joyce

2006-01-01

A quick review of introductory textbooks reveals that while gerontology authors and instructors introduce some aspect of demography and epidemiology data, there is limited focus on age adjustment or other important epidemiology rates. The goal of this paper is to reintroduce a variety of basic epidemiology strategies such as incidence, prevalence,…

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Dietary compound score and risk of age-related macular degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...

Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

PubMed

Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

2006-08-01

We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

Dietary quality indices in relation to cardiometabolic risk among Finnish children aged 6-8 years - The PANIC study.

PubMed

Eloranta, A M; Schwab, U; Venäläinen, T; Kiiskinen, S; Lakka, H M; Laaksonen, D E; Lakka, T A; Lindi, V

2016-09-01

There are no studies on the relationships of dietary quality indices to the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors in children. We therefore investigated the associations of four dietary quality indices with cardiometabolic risk score and cardiometabolic risk factors in Finnish children. Subjects were a population sample of 204 boys and 198 girls aged 6-8 years. We assessed diet by 4-day food records and calculated Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Score, Baltic Sea Diet Score (BSDS), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Finnish Children Healthy Eating Index (FCHEI). We calculated the age- and sex-adjusted cardiometabolic risk score summing up Z-scores for waist circumference, mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and concentrations of fasting serum insulin and fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol, the last multiplying by -1. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk score among boys (standardised regression coefficient β = -0.14, P = 0.044) adjusted for age, physical activity, electronic media time and household income. Higher DASH Score was related to a lower serum insulin in boys (β = -0.15, P = 0.028). Higher DASH Score (β = -0.16, P = 0.023) and FCHEI (β = -0.17, P = 0.014) were related to lower triglyceride concentration in boys. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower triglyceride concentration in girls (β = -0.16, P = 0.033). Higher DASH Score (β = -0.19, P = 0.011) and BSDS (β = -0.23, P = 0.001) were associated with lower plasma HDL cholesterol concentration in girls. Higher FCHEI was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk among boys, whereas DASH Score, BSDS or MDS were not associated with cardiometabolic risk in children. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups

PubMed Central

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-01-01

Background The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Methods Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Results Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. Conclusion It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running

Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

PubMed

Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

2009-04-30

The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

Risk-adjusted models for adverse obstetric outcomes and variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals.

PubMed

Bailit, Jennifer L; Grobman, William A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Spong, Catherine Y; Wapner, Ronald J; Varner, Michael W; Thorp, John M; Leveno, Kenneth J; Caritis, Steve N; Shubert, Phillip J; Tita, Alan T; Saade, George; Sorokin, Yoram; Rouse, Dwight J; Blackwell, Sean C; Tolosa, Jorge E; Van Dorsten, J Peter

2013-11-01

Regulatory bodies and insurers evaluate hospital quality using obstetrical outcomes, however meaningful comparisons should take preexisting patient characteristics into account. Furthermore, if risk-adjusted outcomes are consistent within a hospital, fewer measures and resources would be needed to assess obstetrical quality. Our objective was to establish risk-adjusted models for 5 obstetric outcomes and assess hospital performance across these outcomes. We studied a cohort of 115,502 women and their neonates born in 25 hospitals in the United States from March 2008 through February 2011. Hospitals were ranked according to their unadjusted and risk-adjusted frequency of venous thromboembolism, postpartum hemorrhage, peripartum infection, severe perineal laceration, and a composite neonatal adverse outcome. Correlations between hospital risk-adjusted outcome frequencies were assessed. Venous thromboembolism occurred too infrequently (0.03%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02-0.04%) for meaningful assessment. Other outcomes occurred frequently enough for assessment (postpartum hemorrhage, 2.29%; 95% CI, 2.20-2.38, peripartum infection, 5.06%; 95% CI, 4.93-5.19, severe perineal laceration at spontaneous vaginal delivery, 2.16%; 95% CI, 2.06-2.27, neonatal composite, 2.73%; 95% CI, 2.63-2.84). Although there was high concordance between unadjusted and adjusted hospital rankings, several individual hospitals had an adjusted rank that was substantially different (as much as 12 rank tiers) than their unadjusted rank. None of the correlations between hospital-adjusted outcome frequencies was significant. For example, the hospital with the lowest adjusted frequency of peripartum infection had the highest adjusted frequency of severe perineal laceration. Evaluations based on a single risk-adjusted outcome cannot be generalized to overall hospital obstetric performance. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

PubMed

Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

2004-06-01

Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

Appraisal and coping as mediators of the effects of cumulative risk on preadolescent adjustment

PubMed Central

Thompson, Stephanie F.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Garcia, Connie Meza

2016-01-01

This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relations among cumulative risk, appraisal, coping, and adjustment. Longitudinal path models were tested in a community sample of 316 children in preadolescence to examine hypotheses that threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediate the effects of cumulative risk on child adjustment, whereas positive appraisal and active coping were hypothesized to predict better adjustment independently. Children and their mothers were assessed during in-home interviews at three time points at one-year intervals. Children reported on appraisal and coping strategies. Mothers and children reported on child adjustment problems and positive adjustment. Rank-order changes in appraisal and coping predicted rank-order changes in adjustment. Cumulative risk was concurrently related to higher threat appraisal and avoidant coping at each time point. Threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediated the relations of cumulative risk to rank-order changes in adjustment. There is specificity in the relations of cumulative risk to threat appraisal and avoidant coping, whereas positive appraisal and active coping are independent of risk and operate as individual resource factors. PMID:27110087

Prevalence and risk factors for age-related macular degeneration in Indians: a comparative study in Singapore and India.

PubMed

Gemmy Cheung, Chui Ming; Li, Xiang; Cheng, Ching-Yu; Zheng, Yingfeng; Mitchell, Paul; Wang, Jie Jin; Jonas, Jost B; Nangia, Vinay; Wong, Tien Yin

2013-04-01

To compare the prevalence and risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in 2 Indian populations, 1 living in urban Singapore and 1 in rural central India. Population-based, cross-sectional studies of Indians aged 40+ years. Our analysis included 3337 Singapore-residing participants and 3422 India-residing participants. All participants underwent comprehensive systemic and ocular examinations and retinal photography. AMD was graded from retinal photographs according to the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. Systemic and ocular risk factors were assessed for association with AMD. Singapore-residing participants were older (mean age 57.8 years vs 53.8 years) and, after adjusting for age and sex, were more likely to have previous cataract surgery, higher body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, higher cholesterol, and lower creatinine levels, but less likely to be current smokers, than India-residing participants. The age-standardized prevalence of early and late AMD was 4.45% and 0.34%, respectively, in Singapore and 5.80% and 0.16%, respectively, in India. Shorter axial length was associated with early AMD in both Singapore and India, whereas previous cataract surgery, higher body mass index, hypertension, and lower cholesterol were associated with early AMD in Singapore but not in India. The prevalence of AMD was similar among Indian adults living in urban Singapore and rural India, despite differences in cardiovascular risk factor profile and demographics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risks of newly onset hemorrhagic stroke in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Lee, Wan-Ju Annabelle; Cheng, Ching-Lan; Lee, Cheng-Han; Kao Yang, Yea-Huei; Lin, Swu-Jane; Hsieh, Cheng-Yang

2017-10-01

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is an eye disease causing blindness in the elderly. It shares many common possible pathogenic mechanisms with cardiovascular diseases. Many studies have discussed the association between AMD and stroke, but the results were inconsistent. Our aim was to determine the associations between neovascular AMD and the risk of stroke in the Taiwanese population. This is a retrospective cohort study. We used claims data from National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients aged more than 45 years without stroke, myocardial infarction, or any AMD were selected from 2001 to 2008 and followed until 2010. The index date was defined as the date of nAMD diagnosis (ICD-9 code, 362.52). The comparison group was patients without an nAMD diagnosis with age- and sex-matched to nAMD subjects at a ratio of up to 10 to 1. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were used. The incidence of stroke events (ICD-9 codes, 430-434) and their subtypes (hemorrhagic and ischemic) were primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included acute myocardial infarction (AMI), composite AMI/stroke, and all-cause mortality. Patients with nAMD had a higher risk of developing stroke, with an adjusted HR of 1.30 (95% CI, 1.01-1.68). A higher risk for hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 1.70, 95% CI, 1.03-2.83) was also found. No significant differences were observed in ischemic stroke, the composite of AMI/stroke, and all-cause mortality. Patients with nAMD had a significantly higher risk of developing stroke, which was driven mainly by the increased risk of developing the hemorrhagic subtype. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk of endometrial cancer in relation to medical conditions and medication use.

PubMed

Fortuny, Joan; Sima, Camelia; Bayuga, Sharon; Wilcox, Homer; Pulick, Katherine; Faulkner, Shameka; Zauber, Ann G; Olson, Sara H

2009-05-01

We studied the relation of medical conditions related to obesity and medications used for these conditions with endometrial cancer. We also investigated the association of other medical conditions and medications with risk. This U.S. population-based case-control study included 469 endometrial cancer cases and 467 controls. Information on putative risk factors for endometrial cancer was collected through personal interviews. We asked women about their medical history and medications used for six months or longer and the number of years each medication was taken. Risk was strongly associated with increasing obesity (P for trend < 0.001). Among the conditions related to obesity, and after adjustment for age, body mass index, and other risk factors and conditions, uterine fibroids were independently related to an increased cancer risk [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 1.8; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.2-2.5]. Although hypertension was not significantly related to endometrial cancer after adjustment for age and body mass index, the use of thiazide diuretics was independently associated with increased risk (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). Anemia was associated with decreased risk (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9). Use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was related to a decreased risk (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.97). To our knowledge, the observation about thiazide diuretics is novel and requires confirmation in other studies and populations.

Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

PubMed

Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

2001-01-01

In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

The association of aspirin use with age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Liew, Gerald; Mitchell, Paul; Wong, Tien Yin; Rochtchina, Elena; Wang, Jie Jin

2013-02-25

To determine whether regular aspirin use is associated with a higher risk for developing age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by using analyzed data from a 15-year prospective cohort. A prospective analysis was conducted of data from an Australian population-based cohort with 4 examinations during a 15-year period (1992-1994 to 2007-2009). Participants completed a detailed questionnaire at baseline assessing aspirin use, cardiovascular disease status, and AMD risk factors. Age-related macular degeneration was graded side-by-side from retinal photographs taken at each study visit to assess the incidence of neovascular (wet) AMD and geographic atrophy (dry AMD) according to the international AMD classification. Of 2389 baseline participants with follow-up data available, 257 individuals (10.8%) were regular aspirin users and 63 of the 2389 developed neovascular AMD. Persons who were regular aspirin users were more likely to have incident neovascular AMD: the 15-year cumulative incidence was 9.3% in users and 3.7% in nonusers. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, history of cardiovascular disease, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index, persons who were regular aspirin users had a higher risk of developing neovascular AMD (odds ratio [OR], 2.46; 95% CI, 1.25-4.83). The association showed a dose-response effect (multivariate-adjusted P = .01 for trend). Aspirin use was not associated with the incidence of geographic atrophy (multivariate-adjusted OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.59-1.65). Regular aspirin use is associated with increased risk of incident neovascular AMD, independent of a history of cardiovascular disease and smoking.

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

PubMed

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study.

PubMed

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41-0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. © The Author(s), 2015.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk after adjustment for known risk factors: The EnvIMS study

PubMed Central

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Cortese, Marianna; Holmøy, Trygve; Kampman, Margitta T; Magalhaes, Sandra; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Wolfson, Christina; Pugliatti, Maura

2016-01-01

Background: Several recent studies have found a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) among people with a low level of education. This has been suggested to reflect an effect of smoking and lower vitamin D status in the social class associated with lower levels of education. Objective: The objective of this paper is to investigate the association between level of education and MS risk adjusting for the known risk factors smoking, infectious mononucleosis, indicators of vitamin D levels and body size. Methods: Within the case-control study on Environmental Factors In MS (EnvIMS), 953 MS patients and 1717 healthy controls from Norway reported educational level and history of exposure to putative environmental risk factors. Results: Higher level of education were associated with decreased MS risk (p trend = 0.001) with an OR of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.68) when comparing those with the highest and lowest level of education. This association was only moderately reduced after adjusting for known risk factors (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.83). The estimates remained similar when cases with disease onset before age 28 were excluded. Conclusion: These findings suggest that factors related to lower socioeconomic status other than established risk factors are associated with MS risk. PMID:26014605

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

45 CFR 153.360 - Application of risk adjustment to the small group market.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Application of risk adjustment to the small group market. 153.360 Section 153.360 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER...

Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

1996-01-01

Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Social relations, depressive symptoms, and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Laursen, Karin Rosenkilde; Hulman, Adam; Witte, Daniel R; Terkildsen Maindal, Helle

2017-04-01

We examined whether social relations are associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and furthermore, whether social relations modify the association between depressive symptoms and incident T2DM. We hypothesized that the risk of developing T2DM would be lower for individuals with stronger social relations compared to those with weaker social relations, and that the association between depressive symptoms and incident T2DM would be attenuated for those with stronger social relations. Non-diabetic participants (n=7662) of the "English Longitudinal Study of Ageing" (3398 men) aged 50-91years were followed until 2012/2013, after baseline assessment of depressive symptoms, social support, relational strain, and network size. Hazard ratios (HR) for incident diabetes were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for relevant confounders. Age and sex adjusted HRs showed that social relations were associated with incident diabetes (Support: HR 0.98 95% CI 0.97; 0.99, Strain: HR 1.02 95% CI 1.01; 1.04, Network limited : HR 1.19 95% CI 0.98; 1.44), however, when adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, household wealth, health behaviour, and body mass index the associations were attenuated and were no longer statistically significant. Depressive symptoms were associated with higher diabetes risk. This effect was not modified by any of the social variables. People with stronger social relations are at lower risk of developing T2DM; however, this effect is largely explained by known diabetes risk factors. No evidence was found that stronger social relations reduce the association between depressive symptoms and incident T2DM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adjustment of Children Born to Teenage Mothers: The Contribution of Risk and Protective Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Luster, Tom

1990-01-01

Examined contribution of risk and protective factors in adjustment of 721 children, age 8-15, born to teenage mothers. Results showed that exposure to increasing number of risk factors (poverty, urban residence, mother's self-esteem) was associated with greater vulnerability to adjustment problems, while protective factors (intelligence,…

Distinct age-related differences in temporal discounting and risk taking in adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

de Water, Erik; Cillessen, Antonius H N; Scheres, Anouk

2014-01-01

Age-related differences in temporal discounting (TD) and risk taking, and their association, were examined in adolescents and young adults (n = 337) aged 12-27 years. Since monetary rewards are typically used in TD and risk-taking tasks, the association between monetary reward valuation and age and decision making in these tasks was explored as well. TD declined linearly with age, with a particularly sharp decline from 15 to 16 years. In contrast, risk taking was not correlated with age and TD. Reward valuation was not associated with TD and risk taking, and age-related differences in TD remained significant after controlling for reward valuation. Together, these findings suggest that risk taking and TD are two separate constructs with distinct age-related differences in adolescence and young adulthood. © 2014 The Authors. Child Development © 2014 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Association of Anticholinergic Drug Use With Risk for Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Aldebert, Gauthier; Faillie, Jean-Luc; Hillaire-Buys, Dominique; Mura, Thibault; Carrière, Isabelle; Delcourt, Cécile; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Villain, Max; Daien, Vincent

2018-05-24

Amyloid-β is a major component of retinal drusen, the primary lesions of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and autopsy and animal models suggested that anticholinergic drug (ACD) use increased brain amyloid-β deposition. To investigate the association between exposure to ACDs and late AMD (features of neovascular AMD or geographic atrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium in at least 1 eye). A multicenter case-control study in 4 French ophthalmologic centers comprising 200 cases with late AMD and 200 controls enrolled from July 2016 to June 2017. Exposure to at least 3 months of ACDs started before AMD diagnosis was recorded during a specific interview. A dose-effect association with cumulative exposure duration and Anticholinergic Burden Score was explored. The association between ACD exposure and AMD was assessed by multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, family history of AMD, alcohol consumption, and use of anticoagulant and anti-inflammatory drugs. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Association between exposure to ACDs and late AMD. Among case participants, the mean (SD) age was 74.8 (9.2) years, 129 (64.5%) were women, 192 (96%) were white, 65 (32.5%) had geographic atrophy, 135 (67.5%) had neovascular AMD, 116 (58%) had unilateral AMD, and 84 (42%) had bilateral AMD. Among control participants, the mean (SD) age was 75.5 (7.2) years, with 116 (58%) women and 187 (93.5%) white participants. Twenty-six cases (13%) and 10 controls (5%) were exposed to ACDs throughout life for at least 3 months before AMD onset. Risk of AMD was increased with ever exposure to ACDs (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.84; 95% CI, 1.33-6.06; P = .007), high Anticholinergic Burden Score (≥3) (aOR, 6.42; 95% CI, 1.38-29.92; P = .02), and longest cumulative exposure to ACD (≥15 years) (aOR, 5.88; 95% CI, 1.22-28.31; P = .03). Risk of late AMD may be increased with at least 3 months' use of ACDs. A dose

Relative risk of listeriosis in Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) sites according to age, pregnancy, and ethnicity.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Jackson, Kelly A; Henao, Olga L; Silk, Benjamin J

2012-06-01

Quantitative estimates of the relative risk (RR) of listeriosis among higher-risk populations and a nuanced understanding of the age-specific risks are crucial for risk assessments, targeted interventions, and policy decisions. The RR of invasive listeriosis was evaluated by age, pregnancy status, and ethnicity using 2004-2009 data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). Nonparametric logistic regression was used to characterize changes in risk with age and ethnicity. Adjusted RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were evaluated using negative binomial generalized linear models. Among non-pregnancy-associated cases, listeriosis incidence rates increased gradually with age (45-59 years: RR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.3-6.8; >85 years: RR, 53.8; 95% CI, 37.3-78.9; reference: 15-44 years). The RR was significantly higher for Hispanics than for non-Hispanics (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5). Among women of reproductive age (15-44 years), pregnant women had a markedly higher listeriosis risk (RR, 114.6; 95% CI, 68.9-205.1) than nonpregnant women. The RR was higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic women, regardless of pregnancy status, and this increased during the study period (2004-2006: RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.3; 2007-2009: RR, 4.8; 95% CI, 3.1-7.1). This study quantifies the increases in risk of listeriosis among older persons, pregnant women, and Hispanics in the United States. Additional research is needed to better describe the independent effects of age on risk while accounting for underlying conditions. These estimates are needed both to optimize risk assessment models and to inform targeted interventions and policy decisions.

Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Socioeconomic Status on Risk-Adjusted Hospital Readmission Rates Following Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Martsolf, Grant R; Barrett, Marguerite L; Weiss, Audrey J; Kandrack, Ryan; Washington, Raynard; Steiner, Claudia A; Mehrotra, Ateev; SooHoo, Nelson F; Coffey, Rosanna

2016-08-17

Readmission rates following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are increasingly used to measure hospital performance. Readmission rates that are not adjusted for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status, patient risk factors beyond a hospital's control, may not accurately reflect a hospital's performance. In this study, we examined the extent to which risk-adjusting for race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status affected hospital performance in terms of readmission rates following THA and TKA. We calculated 2 sets of risk-adjusted readmission rates by (1) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services standard risk-adjustment algorithm that incorporates patient age, sex, comorbidities, and hospital effects and (2) adding race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the model. Using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, 2011 State Inpatient Databases, we compared the relative performances of 1,194 hospitals across the 2 methods. Addition of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status to the risk-adjustment algorithm resulted in (1) little or no change in the risk-adjusted readmission rates at nearly all hospitals; (2) no change in the designation of the readmission rate as better, worse, or not different from the population mean at >99% of the hospitals; and (3) no change in the excess readmission ratio at >97% of the hospitals. Inclusion of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the risk-adjustment algorithm led to a relative-performance change in readmission rates following THA and TKA at <3% of the hospitals. We believe that policymakers and payers should consider this result when deciding whether to include race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status in risk-adjusted THA and TKA readmission rates used for hospital accountability, payment, and public reporting. Prognostic Level III. See instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery

Difficulties with Regression Analysis of Age-Adjusted Rates.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

variables used in those analyses, such as death rates in various states, have been age adjusted, whereas the predictor variables have not been age adjusted...The use of crude state death rates as the outcome variable with crude covariates and age as predictors can avoid the problem, at least under some...should be regressed on age-adjusted exposure Z+B+ Although age-specific death rates , Yas+’ may be available, it is often difficult to obtain age

Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis With Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

PubMed Central

Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

2012-01-01

The health disparities literature identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative SES risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A Latent Profile Analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence. PMID:22709130

Income differentials in functional disability in old age: relative risks of onset, recovery, decline, attrition and mortality.

PubMed

Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Deeg, Dorly J H; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2003-04-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in health decline in late life may be underestimated, because the relatively higher risks of attrition of lower-SES persons are seldom taken into account. This longitudinal study aimed at comparing income differences in the course of disability, non-mortality attrition and mortality in older adults. A sample population of 3107 older adults who participated in the 1992/1993 baseline of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam was examined regarding changes in functional disability in 1998/1999. SES was indicated by household income. Multinomial regression analyses revealed that, for men without disability at baseline, the relative rate for attrition was four times higher and the mortality rate was twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For non-disabled women, the relative risk for the onset of disability was nearly twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For both men and women, these risks decreased only slightly when behavioral and psychosocial risk factors were taken into account. Among persons with disability at baseline, the relative risks for attrition (for women) and mortality (for men) were twice as high for low-income persons, but no income differences were found with respect to recovery and decline. Adjustment for risk factors decreased the relative risks for attrition and mortality to a non-significant level. Income inequality in health in late life is to a large degree explained by the higher incidence of disability among lower-status women and by the higher attrition and mortality risks among lower-status men.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Use of Prolonged Travel to Improve Pediatric Risk-Adjustment Models

PubMed Central

Lorch, Scott A; Silber, Jeffrey H; Even-Shoshan, Orit; Millman, Andrea

2009-01-01

Objective To determine whether travel variables could explain previously reported differences in lengths of stay (LOS), readmission, or death at children's hospitals versus other hospital types. Data Source Hospital discharge data from Pennsylvania between 1996 and 1998. Study Design A population cohort of children aged 1–17 years with one of 19 common pediatric conditions was created (N=51,855). Regression models were constructed to determine difference for LOS, readmission, or death between children's hospitals and other types of hospitals after including five types of additional illness severity variables to a traditional risk-adjustment model. Principal Findings With the traditional risk-adjustment model, children traveling longer to children's or rural hospitals had longer adjusted LOS and higher readmission rates. Inclusion of either a geocoded travel time variable or a nongeocoded travel distance variable provided the largest reduction in adjusted LOS, adjusted readmission rates, and adjusted mortality rates for children's hospitals and rural hospitals compared with other types of hospitals. Conclusions Adding a travel variable to traditional severity adjustment models may improve the assessment of an individual hospital's pediatric care by reducing systematic differences between different types of hospitals. PMID:19207591

Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

2009-02-26

We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is moremore » efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.« less

Association of surgical care improvement project infection-related process measure compliance with risk-adjusted outcomes: implications for quality measurement.

PubMed

Ingraham, Angela M; Cohen, Mark E; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Dimick, Justin B; Richards, Karen E; Raval, Mehul V; Fleisher, Lee A; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y

2010-12-01

Facility-level process measure adherence is being publicly reported. However, the association between measure adherence and surgical outcomes is not well-established. Our objective was to determine the degree to which Surgical Care Improvement Project (SCIP) process measures are associated with American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) risk-adjusted outcomes. This cross-sectional study included hospitals participating in the ACS NSQIP and SCIP (n = 200). ACS NSQIP outcomes (30-day overall morbidity, serious morbidity, surgical site infections [SSI], and mortality) and adherence to SCIP SSI-related process measures (from the Hospital Compare database) were collected from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2008. Hospital-level correlation coefficients between compliance with 4 process measures (ie, antibiotic administration within 1 hour before incision [SCIP-1]; appropriate antibiotic prophylaxis [SCIP-2]; antibiotic discontinuation within 24 hours after surgery [SCIP-3]; and appropriate hair removal [SCIP 6]) and 4 risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated. Regression analyses estimated the contribution of process measure adherence to risk-adjusted outcomes. Of 211 ACS NSQIP hospitals, 95% had data reported by Hospital Compare. Depending on the measure, hospital-level compliance ranged from 60% to 100%. Of the 16 correlations, 15 demonstrated nonsignificant associations with risk-adjusted outcomes. The exception was the relationship between SCIP-2 and SSI (p = 0.004). SCIP-1 demonstrated an intriguing but nonsignificant relationship with SSI (p = 0.08) and overall morbidity (p = 0.08). Although adherence to SCIP-2 was a significant predictor of risk-adjusted SSI (p < 0.0001) and overall morbidity (p < 0.0001), inclusion of compliance for SCIP-1 and SCIP-2 caused only slight improvement in model quality. Better adherence to infection-related process measures over the observed range was not significantly associated with

Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

PubMed

Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

2018-05-01

Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age-related functional limitations, countermeasures, and crash risks : traffic tech.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

This study updates and extends our understanding of how : age-related functional deficits, including changes in vision, : cognition, strength, and flexibility can increase older drivers : crash risks. The report discusses the potential of a variet...

Emotion recognition and social adjustment in school-aged girls and boys.

PubMed

Leppänen, J M; Hietanen, J K

2001-12-01

The present study investigated emotion recognition accuracy and its relation to social adjustment in 7-10 year-old children. The ability to recognize basic emotions from facial and vocal expressions was measured and compared to peer popularity and to teacher-rated social competence. The results showed that emotion recognition was related to these measures of social adjustment, but the gender of a child and emotion category affected this relationship. Emotion recognition accuracy was significantly related to social adjustment for the girls, but not for the boys. For the girls, especially the recognition of surprise was related to social adjustment. Together, these results suggest that the ability to recognize others' emotional states from nonverbal cues is an important socio-cognitive ability for school-aged girls.

Assessing risk-adjustment approaches under non-random selection.

PubMed

Luft, Harold S; Dudley, R Adams

2004-01-01

Various approaches have been proposed to adjust for differences in enrollee risk in health plans. Because risk-selection strategies may have different effects on enrollment, we simulated three types of selection--dumping, skimming, and stinting. Concurrent diagnosis-based risk adjustment, and a hybrid using concurrent adjustment for about 8% of the cases and prospective adjustment for the rest, perform markedly better than prospective or demographic adjustments, both in terms of R2 and the extent to which plans experience unwarranted gains or losses. The simulation approach offers a valuable tool for analysts in assessing various risk-adjustment strategies under different selection situations.

Risk adjustment alternatives in paying for behavioral health care under Medicaid.

PubMed Central

Ettner, S L; Frank, R G; McGuire, T G; Hermann, R C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of various risk adjustment models in behavioral health applications such as setting mental health and substance abuse (MH/SA) capitation payments or overall capitation payments for populations including MH/SA users. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: The 1991-93 administrative data from the Michigan Medicaid program were used. We compared mean absolute prediction error for several risk adjustment models and simulated the profits and losses that behavioral health care carve outs and integrated health plans would experience under risk adjustment if they enrolled beneficiaries with a history of MH/SA problems. Models included basic demographic adjustment, Adjusted Diagnostic Groups, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and specifications designed for behavioral health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Differences in predictive ability among risk adjustment models were small and generally insignificant. Specifications based on relatively few MH/SA diagnostic categories did as well as or better than models controlling for additional variables such as medical diagnoses at predicting MH/SA expenditures among adults. Simulation analyses revealed that among both adults and minors considerable scope remained for behavioral health care carve outs to make profits or losses after risk adjustment based on differential enrollment of severely ill patients. Similarly, integrated health plans have strong financial incentives to avoid MH/SA users even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk adjustment methodologies do not eliminate the financial incentives for integrated health plans and behavioral health care carve-out plans to avoid high-utilizing patients with psychiatric disorders. PMID:11508640

Optimizing ACS NSQIP modeling for evaluation of surgical quality and risk: patient risk adjustment, procedure mix adjustment, shrinkage adjustment, and surgical focus.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Zhou, Lynn; Huffman, Kristopher; Wang, Xue; Liu, Yaoming; Kraemer, Kari; Meng, Xiangju; Merkow, Ryan; Chow, Warren; Matel, Brian; Richards, Karen; Hart, Amy J; Dimick, Justin B; Hall, Bruce L

2013-08-01

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) collects detailed clinical data from participating hospitals using standardized data definitions, analyzes these data, and provides participating hospitals with reports that permit risk-adjusted comparisons with a surgical quality standard. Since its inception, the ACS NSQIP has worked to refine surgical outcomes measurements and enhance statistical methods to improve the reliability and validity of this hospital profiling. From an original focus on controlling for between-hospital differences in patient risk factors with logistic regression, ACS NSQIP has added a variable to better adjust for the complexity and risk profile of surgical procedures (procedure mix adjustment) and stabilized estimates derived from small samples by using a hierarchical model with shrinkage adjustment. New models have been developed focusing on specific surgical procedures (eg, "Procedure Targeted" models), which provide opportunities to incorporate indication and other procedure-specific variables and outcomes to improve risk adjustment. In addition, comparative benchmark reports given to participating hospitals have been expanded considerably to allow more detailed evaluations of performance. Finally, procedures have been developed to estimate surgical risk for individual patients. This article describes the development of, and justification for, these new statistical methods and reporting strategies in ACS NSQIP. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15May2012 - 31Aug2016 Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment...deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison groups of civilain single parent families (N=200) and civilian dual parent

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Prospective study of plasma homocysteine level and risk of age-related macular degeneration in women.

PubMed

Christen, William G; Cook, Nancy R; Ridker, Paul M; Buring, Julie E

2015-04-01

Prospective data to examine the association of homocysteine with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are limited. We examined the prospective relation of plasma homocysteine level and AMD in a large cohort of apparently healthy women. We evaluated the relationship between baseline levels of plasma homocysteine and incident AMD among 27,479 female health professionals aged 40 years or older. Main outcome measures were total AMD, defined as self-report documented by medical record evidence of an initial diagnosis after randomization, and visually significant AMD, defined as confirmed incident AMD with visual acuity 20/30 or worse attributable to this condition. During an average 10 years of follow-up, a total of 452 cases of AMD, including 182 cases of visually significant AMD, were documented. Women in the highest versus lowest quartile of plasma homocysteine had modestly, but statistically non-significant, increased risks of total AMD (hazard ratio, HR, 1.24, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.95-1.63; p for trend 0.07) and visually significant AMD (HR 1.41, 95% CI 0.92-2.17; p for trend 0.052) in age- and treatment-adjusted analyses. These prospective data from a large cohort of apparently healthy women do not support a strong role for homocysteine in AMD occurrence.

Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio tests: applications to Bristol, Shipman and adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, David; Grigg, Olivia; Kinsman, Robin; Treasure, Tom

2003-02-01

To investigate the use of the risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio test in monitoring the cumulative occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Retrospective analysis of three longitudinal datasets. Patients aged 65 years and over under the care of Harold Shipman between 1979 and 1997, patients under 1 year of age undergoing paediatric heart surgery in Bristol Royal Infirmary between 1984 and 1995, adult patients receiving cardiac surgery from a team of cardiac surgeons in London,UK. Annual and 30-day mortality rates. Using reasonable boundaries, the procedure could have indicated an 'alarm' in Bristol after publication of the 1991 Cardiac Surgical Register, and in 1985 or 1997 for Harold Shipman depending on the data source and the comparator. The cardiac surgeons showed no significant deviation from expected performance. The risk-adjusted sequential probability test is simple to implement, can be applied in a variety of contexts, and might have been useful to detect specific instances of past divergent performance. The use of this and related techniques deserves further attention in the context of prospectively monitoring adverse clinical outcomes.

Risk of labor dystocia increases with maternal age irrespective of parity: a population-based register study.

PubMed

Waldenström, Ulla; Ekéus, Cecilia

2017-09-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with labor dystocia (LD) in nulliparous women. This study investigates the age-related risk of LD in first, second and third births. All live singleton cephalic births at term (≥ 37 gestational weeks) recorded in the Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1999 to 2011, except elective cesarean sections and fourth births and more, in total 998 675 pregnancies, were included in the study. LD was defined by International Classification of Diseases, version 10 codes (O620, O621, O622, O629, O630, O631 and O639). In each parity group risks of LD at age 25-29 years, 30-34 years, 35-39 years and ≥ 40 years compared with age < 25 years were investigated by logistic regression analyses. Analyses were adjusted for year of delivery, education, country/region of birth, smoking in early pregnancy, maternal height, body mass index, week of gestation, fetal presentation and infant birthweight. Rates of LD were 22.5%, 6.1% and 4% in first, second and third births, respectively. Adjusted odd ratios (OR) for LD increased progressively from the youngest to the oldest age group, irrespective of parity. At age 35-39 years the adjusted OR (95% CI) was approximately doubled compared with age 25 and younger: 2.13 (2.06-2.20) in first birth; 2.05 (1.91-2.19) in second births; and 1.81 (1.49-2.21) in third births. Maternal age is an independent risk factor for LD in first, second and third births. Although age-related risks by parity are relatively similar, more nulliparous than parous women will be exposed to LD due to the higher rate. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Relative risk of fatal crash involvement by BAC, age, and gender

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

The objective of this study was to re-examine and refine estimates for alcohol-related relative risk of driver involvement in fatal crashes by age and gender as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) using recent data. The method of study wa...

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

PubMed

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

Long-term physical activity and risk of age-related cataract: a population-based prospective study of male and female cohorts.

PubMed

Zheng Selin, Jinjin; Orsini, Nicola; Ejdervik Lindblad, Birgitta; Wolk, Alicja

2015-02-01

To examine the association of total and specific types of physical activity, including walking or bicycling, exercising, work or occupational activity, home or housework, and leisure time inactivity with the risk of age-related cataract in women and men. Population-based prospective cohort study. A total of 52 660 participants (23 853 women and 28 807 men) 45 to 83 years of age from the Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men. Physical activity was assessed using a self-administered questionnaire at baseline. Cataract diagnosis and extraction were identified through linkage to registers. Incident age-related cataract diagnosis and cataract extraction. During a mean 12.1 years of follow-up (between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2011; 634 631 person-years), 11 580 incident age-related cataract cases were identified. After adjusting for potential confounders, the highest quartile of total physical activity was statistically significantly associated with 13% decreased risk of cataract compared with the lowest (hazard ratio [HR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.92). Walking or bicycling (>60 minutes/day vs. hardly ever; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95) and work or occupational activity (heavy manual labor vs. mostly sitting; HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.78-0.91) also were associated with decreased risk of cataract. Exercise training and home or housework were not associated with cataract risk. Leisure time inactivity was associated with increased risk of cataract (>6 vs. <1 hours/day; HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.50). The HR for high long-term total physical activity compared with low levels both at 30 years of age and at baseline was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.85). Our findings indicate that high total physical activity, especially in the long term, and such specific types of physical activity as walking or bicycling and work or occupational activity, may be associated with decreased risk of age-related cataract. Conversely, high inactivity levels may be

Association between age-related reductions in testosterone and risk of prostate cancer-An analysis of patients' data with prostatic diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinguang; Bird, Victoria Y; Gerke, Travis A; Manini, Todd M; Prosperi, Mattia

2017-11-01

The relationship between serum total testosterone and prostate cancer (PCa) risk is controversial. The hypothesis that faster age-related reduction in testosterone is linked with increased PCa risk remains untested. We conducted our study at a tertiary-level hospital in southeast of the USA, and derived data from the Medical Registry Database of individuals that were diagnosed of any prostate-related disease from 2001 to 2015. Cases were those diagnosed of PCa and had one or more measurements of testosterone prior to PCa diagnosis. Controls were those without PCa and had one or more testosterone measurements. Multivariable logistic regression models for PCa risk of absolute levels (one-time measure and 5-year average) and annual change in testosterone were respectively constructed. Among a total of 1,559 patients, 217 were PCa cases, and neither one-time measure nor 5-year average of testosterone was found to be significantly associated with PCa risk. Among the 379 patients with two or more testosterone measurements, 27 were PCa cases. For every 10 ng/dL increment in annual reduction of testosterone, the risk of PCa would increase by 14% [adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.25]. Compared to patients with a relatively stable testosterone, patients with an annual testosterone reduction of more than 30 ng/dL had 5.03 [95% CI: 1.53, 16.55] fold increase in PCa risk. This implies a faster age-related reduction in, but not absolute level of serum total testosterone as a risk factor for PCa. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm this finding. © 2017 UICC.

Childhood obesity patterns and relation to middle-age sleep apnoea risk: the Bogalusa Heart Study.

PubMed

Bazzano, L A; Hu, T; Bertisch, S M; Yao, L; Harville, E W; Gustat, J; Chen, W; Webber, L S; Shu, T; Redline, S

2016-12-01

Obese adults have a higher risk of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA); however, the relationship between childhood obesity and adult OSA risk is unclear. Objectives This study aimed to examine overweight/obesity (OW) in childhood and risk of OSA in middle age. Childhood OW status was classified as never OW, weight cycling, persistent OW and incident OW. After 35 years of follow-up, high risk for OSA was determined by a positive score in ≥2 domains on the Berlin Questionnaire with obesity removed from scoring. At initial assessment, mean (SD) age was 9.9 (2.9) years, and 23.9% were OW. Overall, 25.7% had scores indicating a high risk for OSA. Compared with participants who were never OW, those with persistent OW and incident OW were 1.36 (95%CI: 1.04-1.77) and 1.47 (1.11-1.96) times more likely to be high risk for OSA, after adjustment for multiple risk factors and adult OW status. Participants with an OW duration of 1-4 years, 5-8 years, and 8+ years were 0.96 (0.44-2.09), 1.20 (0.70-2.04) and 1.52 (1.22-1.90) times more likely to be high risk for OSA compared with those who were never OW (P for trend: 0.0002). These results suggest that childhood OW is associated with a high risk of OSA in middle age. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

Anticipatory postural adjustments contribute to age-related changes in compensatory steps associated with unilateral perturbations.

PubMed

Hyodo, Masaki; Saito, Mayumi; Ushiba, Junichi; Tomita, Yutaka; Minami, Mihoko; Masakado, Yoshihisa

2012-07-01

Compensatory steps are essential for preventing falls following perturbations. This study aimed to explore age-related changes in compensatory steps to unilateral perturbations, specifically in terms of whether anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) play a role in stabilizing lateral balance. Five young and five elderly male adults participated. The split-belt treadmill was used to provide bi- and unilateral perturbations, as forward or backward transitions, applied 10 times in random order. Backward steps evoked by unilateral forward perturbations were evaluated. We measured temporal characteristics, mediolateral (ML) center of mass (COM) motion, and ML step length of compensatory steps. Compensatory steps to unexpected perturbations showed delayed onset of foot-off (FO) and expanded lateral swing length in elderly compared to young subjects. Differences in COM motions and step width arose related to APAs. Elderly subjects showing APAs exhibited no significant differences in ML COM, ML COM velocity, or ML swing length compared to young subjects. However, elderly subjects without APAs showed significant changes toward instability in these parameters. The fact that APAs play a notable role, particularly in the elderly, in stability offers a new insight into preventing falls. However, APAs occurred in 29% of the steps of young and 35% of the steps of elderly subjects. If the occurrence of APAs in elderly people in response to compensatory steps was more frequent, fall risk would be reduced. Further studies, particularly into APA frequency, might contribute to improved intervention to prevent falls. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

PubMed

Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

2018-02-21

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p < 0.01). Younger age was also associated with higher payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p < 0.01). Most comorbidities were associated with higher reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p < 0.01). Twenty-two procedure codes are included in the bundle, and patients with the 3 most common codes accounted for 98% of the cases, with average reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p < 0.01). DRGs also showed significant differences in reimbursement (p < 0.01); e.g., DRG 480 was reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied

Psychosocial Adjustment and Perceived Risk Among Adolescent Girls From Families With BRCA1/2 or Breast Cancer History

PubMed Central

Patrick-Miller, Linda; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Egleston, Brian L.; Henry-Moss, Dare; Domchek, Susan M.; Daly, Mary B.; Tuchman, Lisa; Moore, Cynthia; Rauch, Paula K.; Shorter, Rebecca; Karpink, Kelsey; Sands, Colleen Burke

2016-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the impact of breast cancer family history and maternal BRCA1/2 mutation on the psychosocial adjustment and perceived risk in girls age 11 to 19 years old. Materials and Methods Girls age 11 to 19 years old with one or more relatives with breast cancer or a familial BRCA1/2 mutation (breast cancer family history [BCFH] positive, n = 208; n = 69 with BRCA1/2-positive mother), peers (BCFH negative, n = 112), and their mothers completed assessments of psychosocial adjustment, breast cancer–specific distress, and perceived risk of breast cancer. Results General psychosocial adjustment did not differ significantly between BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative girls, either by self-report or mother report, except for higher self-esteem among BCFH-positive girls (P = .01). BCFH-positive girls had higher breast cancer–specific distress than BCFH-negative girls (P < .001), but girls from BRCA1/2-positive families did not differ from other BCFH-positive peers. BCFH-positive girls were more likely to report themselves at increased self-risk for breast cancer in adulthood than BCFH-negative peers (74% v 33%, respectively; P ≤ .001). Girls from BRCA1/2-positive families were more likely than other BCFH-positive and BCFH-negative peers to report themselves at increased risk (P < .001). In all groups, perceived risk of breast cancer was associated with older age. Higher breast cancer–specific distress among adolescent girls was associated with higher self-perceived risk of breast cancer and higher maternal breast cancer–specific distress. Conclusion Adolescent girls from BRCA1/2-positive and breast cancer families have higher self-esteem and do not have poorer psychosocial adjustment than peers. However, they do experience greater breast cancer–specific distress and perceived risk of breast cancer, particularly among older girls. Understanding the impact is important to optimize responses to growing up in families at familial and genetic risk for breast

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Conclusion Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. PMID:24721838

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-sectional relations of race and poverty status to cardiovascular risk factors in the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Lifespan (HANDLS) study.

PubMed

Waldstein, Shari R; Moody, Danielle L Beatty; McNeely, Jessica M; Allen, Allyssa J; Sprung, Mollie R; Shah, Mauli T; Al'Najjar, Elias; Evans, Michele K; Zonderman, Alan B

2016-03-14

Examine interactive relations of race and poverty status with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in a socioeconomically diverse sample of urban-dwelling African American (AA) and White adults. Participants were 2,270 AAs and Whites (57% AA; 57% female; ages 30-64 years) who completed the first wave of the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span (HANDLS) study. CVD risk factors assessed included body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), and systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure (SBP, DBP, PP). Interactive and independent relations of race, poverty status, and sex were examined for each outcome via ordinary least squares regression adjusted for age, education, literacy, substance use, depressive symptoms, perceived health care barriers, medical co-morbidities, and medications. Significant interactions of race and poverty status (p's < .05) indicated that AAs living in poverty had lower BMI and WC and higher HDL-C than non-poverty AAs, whereas Whites living in poverty had higher BMI and WC and lower HDL-C than non-poverty Whites. Main effects of race revealed that AAs had higher levels of HbA1c, SBP, and PP, and Whites had higher levels of TC, LDL-C and TG (p's < .05). Poverty status moderated race differences for BMI, WC, and HDL-C, conveying increased risk among Whites living in poverty, but reduced risk in their AA counterparts. Race differences for six additional risk factors withstood extensive statistical adjustments including SES indicators.

[Health-based risk adjustment. Effects and side effects].

PubMed

Jahn, R; Schillo, S; Wasem, J

2012-05-01

Numerous health systems have introduced competition between health plans while banning risk-rated premiums. Risk adjustment for health plans is introduced to reduce incentives for risk selection and to create incentives for health plans to permanently invest in care for the chronically ill. According to the international health economics state of the art, risk adjustment in the German social health insurance system has used information on health status (measured by diagnoses and drug prescriptions) on top of demographic information since 2009. In non-competitive health care systems similar mechanisms are sometimes established, e.g. to achieve an equitable distribution of resources between regions. An evaluation of the first year of health-based risk adjustment demonstrates a superior performance in comparison to the old, demographic risk adjustment. The old risk adjustment formula (without ex post high-cost pooling) showed R(2) of 5.8%, CPM of 10.4% and MAPE of 2,226 €, in contrast to the new health status-based risk adjustment formula (without cash benefit for sick allowance) which reaches R(2) 20.2%, CPM 22.5% and MAPE 1,817 €. However, to make competition between health plans functional for improvement of quality and efficiency of health care, health plans must be granted additional instruments to act as prudent buyers of health care.

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Retinal vascular caliber, iris color, and age-related macular degeneration in the Irish Nun Eye Study.

PubMed

McGowan, Amy; Silvestri, Giuliana; Moore, Evelyn; Silvestri, Vittorio; Patterson, Christopher C; Maxwell, Alexander P; McKay, Gareth J

2014-12-18

To evaluate the relationship between retinal vascular caliber (RVC), iris color, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in elderly Irish nuns. Data from 1233 participants in the cross-sectional observational Irish Nun Eye Study were assessed from digital photographs with a standardized protocol using computer-assisted software. Macular images were graded according to the modified Wisconsin Age-related Maculopathy Grading System. Regression models were used to assess associations, adjusting for age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index, refraction, and fellow RVC. In total, 1122 (91%) participants had gradable retinal images of sufficient quality for vessel assessment (mean age: 76.3 years [range, 56-100 years]). In an unadjusted analysis, we found some support for a previous finding that individuals with blue iris color had narrower retinal venules compared to those with brown iris color (P < 0.05), but this was no longer significant after adjustment. Age-related macular degeneration status was categorized as no AMD, any AMD, and late AMD only. Individuals with any AMD (early or late AMD) had significantly narrower arterioles and venules compared to those with no AMD in an unadjusted analysis, but this was no longer significant after adjustment. A nonsignificant reduced risk of any AMD or late AMD only was observed in association with brown compared to blue iris color, in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Retinal vascular caliber was not significantly associated with iris color or early/late AMD after adjustment for confounders. A lower but nonsignificant AMD risk was observed in those with brown compared to blue iris color. Copyright 2015 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of... respect to implementation of risk adjustment software or as a result of data validation conducted pursuant... implementation of risk adjustment software or data validation. ...

Relative age-related participation and dropout trends in German youth sports clubs.

PubMed

Wattie, Nick; Tietjens, Maike; Cobley, Stephen; Schorer, Jörg; Baker, Joseph; Kurz, Dietrich

2014-01-01

Relative age describes a youth's age within their age group cohort. Compared to relatively younger peers, relatively older youth in an annual age group cohort have been found more likely to be selected to sports teams, and to receive higher grades in education. This study examined the influence of youth sport participants' relative age on participation and dropout. Using data from the 1995 German Youth Sport Survey (N total=2612), comparisons (stratified by gender and sport type) were made between the relative age of current and former participants. Analyses also considered the type of school youths were enrolled in while exploring the influence of relative age on sport participations. No relative age effects for dropout emerged among males in team or individual sport contexts. Female dropouts were more likely to be relatively older (Q1, OR adjusted: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.34-0.80; Q2, OR adjusted: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.36-0.84; Q3, OR adjusted: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.39-0.89), an effect that was mirrored among 'artistic' sport participants. Boys and girls in schools that were for children of higher academic proficiency were more likely to be currently participating in sport. Findings suggest that relative age-related dropout effects may be context sensitive and different for males and females. For the most part, relative age did not appear to have any relationship with dropout in this sample, with some notable exceptions for females. Overall, factors such as the type of school youths were enrolled in appear to be a more salient influence on sport participation than relative age.

Quantifying risk over the life course - latency, age-related susceptibility, and other time-varying exposure metrics.

PubMed

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-06-15

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional, and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prevalence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

PubMed

Jabs, Douglas A; Van Natta, Mark L; Sezgin, Efe; Pak, Jeong Won; Danis, Ronald

2015-06-01

To evaluate the prevalence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Cross-sectional study of patients with AIDS enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS. Intermediate-stage AMD was determined from enrollment retinal photographs by graders at a centralized Reading Center, using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study grading system. Graders were masked as to clinical data. Of 1825 participants with AIDS and no ocular opportunistic infections, 9.9% had intermediate-stage AMD. Risk factors included age, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6, 2.3, P < .001) for every decade of age; the prevalence of AMD ranged from 4.0% for participants 30-39 years old to 24.3% for participants ≥60 years old. Other risk factors included the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk groups of injection drug use (OR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5, 3.9, P < .001) or heterosexual contact (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3, 2.8, P = .001). Compared with the HIV-uninfected population in the Beaver Dam Offspring Study, there was an approximate 4-fold increased age-adjusted prevalence of intermediate-stage AMD. Patients with AIDS have an increased age-adjusted prevalence of intermediate-stage AMD compared with that found in a non-HIV-infected cohort evaluated with similar methods. This increased prevalence is consistent with the increased prevalence of other age-related diseases in antiretroviral-treated, immune-restored, HIV-infected persons when compared to non-HIV-infected persons. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk Factors of Atrophic Gastritis and Intestinal Metaplasia in First-Degree Relatives of Gastric Cancer Patients Compared with Age-Sex Matched Controls

PubMed Central

Oh, Sooyeon; Kim, Nayoung; Yoon, Hyuk; Choi, Yun Jin; Lee, Ju Yup; Park, Kyoung Jun; Kim, Hee Jin; Kang, Kyu Keun; Oh, Dong Hyun; Seo, A Young; Lee, Jae Woo; Shin, Cheol Min; Park, Young Soo; Oh, Jane C.; Lee, Dong Ho; Jung, Hyun Chae

2013-01-01

Background: To identify whether first-degree relatives (FDRs) of gastric cancer (GC) patients have increased risk for atrophic gastritis (AG) and intestinal metaplasia (IM) in relation to other risk factors of GC. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 224 pairs of age-sex matched controls and FDRs. AG and IM in the gastric mucosa were scored histologically using the updated Sydney classification. Risk of having AG and IM was studied by comparing FDRs to controls. Impacts of age, H. pylori infection, smoking, dietary and socioeconomic factors on the presence of AG and IM were studied. Results: In multivariate regression analysis, FDRs had adjusted OR of 2.69 (95% CI 1.06–6.80, P=0.037) for antral IM in male population. Adjusted OR for antral AG and IM were 9.28 (95% CI 4.73–18.18, P<0.001) and 7.81 (95% CI 3.72–16.40, P<0.001) for the H. pylori infected subjects in total population. Getting old by 5 years increased the ORs of having AG and IM by approximately 1.25 fold (P<0.001). Spicy food increased the OR of antral IM by 2.28 fold (95% CI 1.36–3.84, P=0.002). Conclusions: Family history of GC was an independent risk factor for antral IM in male in our study, which could be one reason for the increase of gastric cancer in the family member of gastric cancer. It could be an evidence for the necessity of frequent endoscopy in the presence of family history of GC compared to general population in male. PMID:25337541

Comparison of clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer and age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation to exclude venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Julian, Jim A; Linkins, Lori-Ann; Bates, Shannon; Kearon, Clive

2017-10-05

Two new strategies for interpreting D-dimer results have been proposed: i) using a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age (age-adjusted strategy) and ii) using a D-dimer threshold in patients with low clinical probability that is twice the threshold used in patients with moderate clinical probability (clinical probability-adjusted strategy). Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of age-adjusted and clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation in patients with a low or moderate clinical probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical data and blood samples from two prospective studies. We compared the negative predictive value (NPV) for VTE, and the proportion of patients with a negative D-dimer result, using two D-dimer interpretation strategies: the age-adjusted strategy, which uses a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age over 50 years (age in years × 10 µg/L FEU); and the clinical probability-adjusted strategy which uses a D-dimer threshold of 1000 µg/L FEU in patients with low clinical probability and 500 µg/L FEU in patients with moderate clinical probability. A total of 1649 outpatients with low or moderate clinical probability for a first suspected deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were included. The NPV of both the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (99.7 %) and the age-adjusted strategy (99.6 %) were similar. However, the proportion of patients with a negative result was greater with the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (56.1 % vs, 50.9 %; difference 5.2 %; 95 % CI 3.5 % to 6.8 %). These findings suggest that clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation is a better way of interpreting D-dimer results compared to age-adjusted interpretation.

Twins' risk of childhood asthma mediated by gestational age and birthweight.

PubMed

Ullemar, V; Lundholm, C; Almqvist, C

2015-08-01

Children born with low gestational age (GA) or low birthweight (BW) are at increased risk of asthma. Twins as compared to singletons are on average more likely to be born with lower GA and BW and have been hypothesized to comprise a high-risk population for asthma. Many previous studies have not accounted for potential confounders or mediators. To investigate the association between twinship and childhood asthma or early life wheeze and identify potential mediators, such as GA/BW. The study population consisted of two cohorts including all children born in Sweden from 1 January 1993 to 1 June 2001 (n = 756,363 singletons, n = 22,478 twins) and 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2009 (n = 456,239 singletons, n = 12,872 twins). Asthma was defined using validated register-based outcomes of diagnosis or medication. The data were analysed using logistic (older cohort) and Cox regression (younger cohort). Adjusted models incorporated potential confounding or mediating factors including gestational age and birthweight. In the younger cohort, the crude hazard ratio (HR) of asthma medication after 1.5 years of age was 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.23), and fully adjusted HR was 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.89. Crude HR of asthma diagnosis in the same age group was 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.30), fully adjusted 0.78 (0.68-0.98). Adjusted analyses in the older group yielded similar results. Twins were at significantly higher unadjusted risk of asthma or early life wheeze compared to singletons in the younger, but not in the older cohort. Associations attenuated following adjustment for GA/BW, suggesting that GA/BW mediates the effect of twinship on asthma risk. After adjustments, twins were at lower risk of asthma outcomes, possibly due to unmeasured confounding. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Mental Health Risk Adjustment with Clinical Categories and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Shrestha, Akritee; Bergquist, Savannah; Montz, Ellen; Rose, Sherri

2017-12-15

To propose nonparametric ensemble machine learning for mental health and substance use disorders (MHSUD) spending risk adjustment formulas, including considering Clinical Classification Software (CCS) categories as diagnostic covariates over the commonly used Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) system. 2012-2013 Truven MarketScan database. We implement 21 algorithms to predict MHSUD spending, as well as a weighted combination of these algorithms called super learning. The algorithm collection included seven unique algorithms that were supplied with three differing sets of MHSUD-related predictors alongside demographic covariates: HCC, CCS, and HCC + CCS diagnostic variables. Performance was evaluated based on cross-validated R 2 and predictive ratios. Results show that super learning had the best performance based on both metrics. The top single algorithm was random forests, which improved on ordinary least squares regression by 10 percent with respect to relative efficiency. CCS categories-based formulas were generally more predictive of MHSUD spending compared to HCC-based formulas. Literature supports the potential benefit of implementing a separate MHSUD spending risk adjustment formula. Our results suggest there is an incentive to explore machine learning for MHSUD-specific risk adjustment, as well as considering CCS categories over HCCs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

The HHS-HCC Risk Adjustment Model for Individual and Small Group Markets under the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Ingber, Melvin; Freeman, Sara; Patterson, Lindsey; Cohen, Michael; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses are able to purchase private health insurance through competitive Marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge. The risk adjustment methodology includes the risk adjustment model and the risk transfer formula. This article is the second of three in this issue of the Review that describe the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) risk adjustment methodology and focuses on the risk adjustment model. In our first companion article, we discuss the key issues and choices in developing the methodology. In this article, we present the risk adjustment model, which is named the HHS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) risk adjustment model. We first summarize the HHS-HCC diagnostic classification, which is the key element of the risk adjustment model. Then the data and methods, results, and evaluation of the risk adjustment model are presented. Fifteen separate models are developed. For each age group (adult, child, and infant), a model is developed for each cost sharing level (platinum, gold, silver, and bronze metal levels, as well as catastrophic plans). Evaluation of the risk adjustment models shows good predictive accuracy, both for individuals and for groups. Lastly, this article provides examples of how the model output is used to calculate risk scores, which are an input into the risk transfer formula. Our third companion paper describes the risk transfer formula. PMID:25360387

Independent association of clustered metabolic risk factors with cardiorespiratory fitness in youth aged 11-17 years.

PubMed

Machado-Rodrigues, Aristides M; Leite, Neiva; Coelho-e-Silva, Manuel J; Martins, Raul A; Valente-dos-Santos, João; Mascarenhas, Luís P G; Boguszewski, Margaret C S; Padez, Cristina; Malina, Robert M

2014-01-01

Although the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) has increased in youth, the potential independent contribution of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) to the clustering of metabolic risk factors has received relatively little attention. This study evaluated associations between the clustering of metabolic risk factors and CRF in a sample of youth. Height, weight, BMI, fasting glucose, insulin, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and blood pressures were measured in a cross-sectional sample of 924 youth (402 males, 522 females) of 11-17 years. CRF was assessed using the 20-metre shuttle run test. Physical activity (PA) was measured with a 3-day diary. Outcome variables were statistically normalized and expressed as Z-scores. A MetS risk score was computed as the mean of the Z-scores. Multiple linear regression was used to test associations between CRF and metabolic risk, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, PA and parental education. CRF was inversely associated with MetS after adjustment for potential confounders. After adjusting for BMI, the relationship between CRF and metabolic risk has substantially improved. CRF was independently associated with the clustering of metabolic risk factors in youth of 11-17 years of age.

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

Affordable Care Act risk adjustment: overview, context, and challenges.

PubMed

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses will be able to purchase private health insurance through competitive marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge and the incentive for plans to avoid sicker enrollees. This article--the first of three in the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review--describes the key program goal and issues in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk adjustment methodology, and identifies key choices in how the methodology responds to these issues. The goal of the HHS risk adjustment methodology is to compensate health insurance plans for differences in enrollee health mix so that plan premiums reflect differences in scope of coverage and other plan factors, but not differences in health status. The methodology includes a risk adjustment model and a risk transfer formula that together address this program goal as well as three issues specific to ACA risk adjustment: 1) new population; 2) cost and rating factors; and 3) balanced transfers within state/market. The risk adjustment model, described in the second article, estimates differences in health risks taking into account the new population and scope of coverage (actuarial value level). The transfer formula, described in the third article, calculates balanced transfers that are intended to account for health risk differences while preserving permissible premium differences.

Cumulative pain-related stress and developmental outcomes among low-risk preterm infants at one year corrected age.

PubMed

Morag, Iris; Rotem, Ifat; Frisch, Mor; Hendler, Israel; Simchen, Michal J; Leibovitz, Leah; Maayan-Metzger, Ayala; Strauss, Tzipora

2017-06-01

Extensive exposure of preterm infants to pain-related stress (PRS) at a time of physiological immaturity and rapid brain development may contribute to altered neurodevelopment. To examine the relationship between early PRS and neurodevelopmental outcomes among low-risk very preterm infants at the age of one year corrected age (CA). Participants included 107 infants born <32weeks gestational age (GA) and monitored prospectively at 12.5months CA. Excluded were infants with severe neonatal morbidities associated with impaired neurodevelopment. PRS documentation was performed via the number of skin-breaking procedures (SBP) and by the use of the neonatal infant stressor scale (NISS). Adjustment was made for early neonatal morbidities. Developmental outcomes among the study infants were within the norm (mean 100±11.03). Infants who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (n=31) were exposed to significantly more PRS than non-IMV infants (n=76) (p<0.000). Developmental outcomes were similar in both groups (99.7±11.1 vs. 100.8±11 p=0.63). Among IMV infants, increased exposure to PRS was associated with lower developmental scores independent of GA, gender or other sociodemographic factors. Increased exposure to PRS among low-risk preterm infants who underwent IMV is associated with lower developmental scores at 12.5month CA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

1994-01-01

The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

Quantifying Risk Over the Life Course – Latency, Age-Related Susceptibility, and Other Time-Varying Exposure Metrics

PubMed Central

Wang, Molin; Liao, Xiaomei; Laden, Francine; Spiegelman, Donna

2016-01-01

Identification of the latency period and age-related susceptibility, if any, is an important aspect of assessing risks of environmental, nutritional and occupational exposures. We consider estimation and inference for latency and age-related susceptibility in relative risk and excess risk models. We focus on likelihood-based methods for point and interval estimation of the latency period and age-related windows of susceptibility coupled with several commonly considered exposure metrics. The method is illustrated in a study of the timing of the effects of constituents of air pollution on mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study. PMID:26750582

Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

PubMed

Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

Pigmentary characteristics and moles in relation to melanoma risk.

PubMed

Titus-Ernstoff, Linda; Perry, Ann E; Spencer, Steven K; Gibson, Jennifer J; Cole, Bernard F; Ernstoff, Marc S

2005-08-10

Although benign and atypical moles are considered key melanoma risk factors, previous studies of their influence were small and/or institution-based. We conducted a population-based case-control study in the state of New Hampshire. Individuals of ages 20-69 with an incident diagnosis of first primary cutaneous melanoma were ascertained through the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry. Controls were identified through New Hampshire driver's license lists and frequency-matched by age and gender to cases. We interviewed 423 eligible cases and 678 eligible controls. Host characteristics, including mole counts, were evaluated using logistic regression analyses. Our results showed that pigmentary factors, including eye color (OR = 1.57 for blue eyes compared to brown), hair color (OR = 1.85 for blonde/red hair color compared to brown/black), freckles before age 15 (OR = 2.39 for freckles present compared to absent) and sun sensitivity (OR = 2.25 for peeling sunburn followed by no tan or a light tan and 2.42 for sunburn followed by tan compared to tanning immediately), were related to melanoma risk; these associations held after adjustment for sun-related factors and for moles. In analyses confined to skin examination participants, the covariate-adjusted effects of benign and atypical moles were moderately strong. Compared to 0-4 benign moles, risk increased steadily for 5-14 moles (OR = 1.71), 15-24 moles (OR = 3.55) and >or= 25 moles (OR = 4.33). Risk also increased with the number of atypical moles; compared to none, the ORs for having 1, 2-3, or >or= 4 atypical moles were 2.08, 1.84 and 3.80, respectively. Although risk was highest for those with multiple benign and atypical moles, the interaction was not of statistical significance. Our findings, arising from the first population- and incidence-based study to evaluate atypical moles in relation to melanoma risk, confirm the importance of host susceptibility, represented by pigmentary factors and the tendency to

Racial differences and other risk factors for incidence and progression of age-related macular degeneration: Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) Project.

PubMed

Chang, Margaret A; Bressler, Susan B; Munoz, Beatriz; West, Sheila K

2008-06-01

To evaluate risk factors for the incidence and progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a racially heterogeneous, geriatric population. Subjects (n = 2240) aged 65 to 84 years underwent 2 examinations separated by 2 years, of which 1937 subjects (85%) were included in this report. Fundus photographs were performed at each examination and were graded by trained readers. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, and clustering between eyes were used to evaluate risk factors for AMD incidence and progression. Smoking was a strong, dose-dependent, risk factor for progression from medium size drusen to large drusen or pigmentary abnormalities within the central 1500-microm macular zone. Smoking was also a strong risk factor for development of incident focal pigmentation within 3000 microm of the foveal center. White participants were significantly more likely than blacks to develop large drusen and focal pigmentation and to progress from medium- to large-sized drusen or pigment abnormalities within the central 1500 microm macular zone. However, whites did not have an increased risk of progression from large drusen or pigment abnormalities within the central 1500-microm perimacular zone to foveal GA or CNV when compared with blacks. Smoking and race are important risk factors for progression from medium to large drusen or to pigment abnormalities within the central 1500-microm macular zone. Limitations in the power of this study preclude assessment of the roles of smoking and race on the ultimate progression to foveal GA or CNV once central large drusen or pigment abnormalities are present.

Motivational reserve: motivation-related occupational abilities and risk of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Forstmeier, Simon; Maercker, Andreas; Maier, Wolfgang; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Riedel-Heller, Steffi; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Pentzek, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Bickel, Horst; Tebarth, Franziska; Luppa, Melanie; Wollny, Anja; Wiese, Birgitt; Wagner, Michael

2012-06-01

Midlife motivational abilities, that is, skills to initiate and persevere in the implementation of goals, have been related to mental and physical health, but their association with risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) has not yet been directly investigated. This relation was examined with data from the German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe). A total of 3,327 nondemented participants (50.3% of a randomly selected sample) aged 75-89 years were recruited in primary care and followed up twice (after 1.5 and 3 years). Motivation-related occupational abilities were estimated on the basis of the main occupation (assessed at follow-up II) using the Occupational Information Network (O* NET) database, which provides detailed information on worker characteristics and abilities. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relative risk of developing MCI and AD in relation to motivation-related occupational abilities, adjusting for various covariates. Over the 3 years of follow-up, 15.2% participants developed MCI and 3.0% developed AD. In a fully adjusted model, motivation-related occupational abilities were found to be associated with a reduced risk of MCI (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.64-0.92). Motivation-related occupational abilities were associated with reduced risk of AD in ApoE ε4 carriers (HR: 0.48; CI: 0.25-0.91), but not in noncarriers (HR: 0.99; CI: 0.65-1.53). These results suggest that midlife motivational abilities are associated with reduced risk of MCI in general and with reduced risk of AD in ApoE ε4 carriers. Revealing the mechanisms underlying this association may inform novel prevention strategies for decelerating cognitive decline in old age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Infection-related and -unrelated malignancies, HIV and the aging population.

PubMed

Shepherd, L; Borges, Áh; Ledergerber, B; Domingo, P; Castagna, A; Rockstroh, J; Knysz, B; Tomazic, J; Karpov, I; Kirk, O; Lundgren, J; Mocroft, A

2016-09-01

HIV-positive people have increased risk of infection-related malignancies (IRMs) and infection-unrelated malignancies (IURMs). The aim of the study was to determine the impact of aging on future IRM and IURM incidence. People enrolled in EuroSIDA and followed from the latest of the first visit or 1 January 2001 until the last visit or death were included in the study. Poisson regression was used to investigate the impact of aging on the incidence of IRMs and IURMs, adjusting for demographic, clinical and laboratory confounders. Linear exponential smoothing models forecasted future incidence. A total of 15 648 people contributed 95 033 person-years of follow-up, of whom 610 developed 643 malignancies [IRMs: 388 (60%); IURMs: 255 (40%)]. After adjustment, a higher IRM incidence was associated with a lower CD4 count [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) CD4 count < 200 cells/μL: 3.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.59, 5.51; compared with ≥ 500 cells/μL], independent of age, while a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL was associated with IURMs in people aged < 50 years only (aIRR: 2.51; 95% CI 1.40-4.54). Smoking was associated with IURMs (aIRR: 1.75; 95% CI 1.23, 2.49) compared with never smokers in people aged ≥ 50 years only, and not with IRMs. The incidences of both IURMs and IRMs increased with older age. It was projected that the incidence of IRMs would decrease by 29% over a 5-year period from 3.1 (95% CI 1.5-5.9) per 1000 person-years in 2011, whereas the IURM incidence would increase by 44% from 4.1 (95% CI 2.2-7.2) per 1000 person-years over the same period. Demographic and HIV-related risk factors for IURMs (aging and smoking) and IRMs (immunodeficiency and ongoing viral replication) differ markedly and the contribution from IURMs relative to IRMs will continue to increase as a result of aging of the HIV-infected population, high smoking and lung cancer prevalence and a low prevalence of untreated HIV infection. These findings suggest the need for targeted

Risk Factors for Falls and Fall-Related Injuries in Adults 85 Years of Age and Older

PubMed Central

Grundstrom, Anna C.; Guse, Clare E.; Layde, Peter M.

2011-01-01

Background Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. No previous studies on risk factors for falls have focused on adults 85 years and older, the most rapidly growing segment of adults. Methods We examined demographic, health, and behavioral risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 65 years and older, with a particular focus on adults 85 years and older. We analyzed self-reported information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2008. Results Data was available for 120,923 people aged 65 or older and 12,684 people aged 85 or older. Of those aged 85 or older, 21.3% reported at least one fall in the past 3 months and 7.2% reported at least one fall related injury requiring medical care or limiting activity for a day or longer. Below average general health, male sex, perceived insufficient sleep, health problems requiring assistive devices, alcohol consumption, increasing body mass index and history of stroke were all independently associated with a greater risk of falls or fall related injuries. The greater risk of falling in those 85 years and older appeared to be due to the deterioration of overall health status with age; among those with excellent overall health status, there was no greater risk of falling in adults 85 years and older compared to those 65–84 years of age. Conclusions Our results suggest that those with risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries may be appropriate targets for evidence-based fall prevention programs. PMID:21862143

Risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 85 years of age and older.

PubMed

Grundstrom, Anna C; Guse, Clare E; Layde, Peter M

2012-01-01

Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. No previous studies on risk factors for falls have focused on adults 85 years and older, the most rapidly growing segment of adults. We examined demographic, health, and behavioral risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries in adults 65 years and older, with a particular focus on adults 85 years and older. We analyzed self-reported information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2008. Data was available for 120,923 people aged 65 or older and 12,684 people aged 85 or older. Of those aged 85 or older, 21.3% reported at least one fall in the past 3 months and 7.2% reported at least one fall related injury requiring medical care or limiting activity for a day or longer. Below average general health, male sex, perceived insufficient sleep, health problems requiring assistive devices, alcohol consumption, increasing body mass index and history of stroke were all independently associated with a greater risk of falls or fall related injuries. The greater risk of falling in those 85 years and older appeared to be due to the deterioration of overall health status with age; among those with excellent overall health status, there was no greater risk of falling in adults 85 years and older compared to those 65-84 years of age. Our results suggest that those with risk factors for falls and fall-related injuries may be appropriate targets for evidence-based fall prevention programs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

School-related adjustment in children and adolescents with CHD.

PubMed

Im, Yu-Mi; Lee, Sunhee; Yun, Tae-Jin; Choi, Jae Young

2017-09-01

Advancements in medical and surgical treatment have increased the life expectancy of patients with CHD. Many patients with CHD, however, struggle with the medical, psychosocial, and behavioural challenges as they transition from childhood to adulthood. Specifically, the environmental and lifestyle challenges in school are very important factors that affect children and adolescents with CHD. This study aimed to evaluate school-related adjustments depending on school level and disclosure of disease in children and adolescents with CHD. This was a descriptive and exploratory study with 205 children and adolescents, aged 7-18 years, who were recruited from two congenital heart clinics from 5 January to 27 February, 2015. Data were analysed using the Student's t-test, analysis of variance, and a univariate general linear model. School-related adjustment scores were significantly different according to school level and disclosure of disease (p<0.001) when age, religion, experience being bullied, and parents' educational levels were assigned as covariates. The school-related adjustment score of patients who did not disclose their disease dropped significantly in high school. This indicated that it is important for healthcare providers to plan developmentally appropriate educational transition programmes for middle-school students with CHD in order for students to prepare themselves before entering high school.

Genetic Risk for Age-Related Cognitive Impairment Does Not Predict Cognitive Performance in Middle Age.

PubMed

Korthauer, Laura E; Awe, Elizabeth; Frahmand, Marijam; Driscoll, Ira

2018-05-26

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by memory loss and executive dysfunction, which correspond to structural changes to the medial temporal lobes (MTL) and prefrontal cortex (PFC), respectively. Given the overlap in cognitive deficits between healthy aging and the earliest stages of AD, early detection of AD remains a challenge. The goal of the present study was to study MTL- and PFC-dependent cognitive functioning in middle-aged individuals at genetic risk for AD or cognitive impairment who do not currently manifest any clinical symptoms. Participants (N = 150; aged 40-60 years) underwent genotyping of 47 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in six genes previously associated with memory or executive functioning: APOE, SORL1, BDNF, TOMM40, KIBRA, and COMT. They completed two MTL-dependent tasks, the virtual Morris Water Task (vMWT) and transverse patterning discriminations task (TPDT), and the PFC-dependent reversal learning task. Although age was associated with poorer performance on the vMWT and TPDT within this middle-aged sample, there were no genotype-associated differences in cognitive performance. Although the vMWT and TPDT may be sensitive to age-related changes in cognition, carriers of APOE, SORL1, BDNF, TOMM40, KIBRA, and COMT risk alleles do not exhibit alteration in MTL- and PFC-dependent functioning in middle age compared to non-carriers.

Managing loss adjustment expenses: strategies for health care risk managers.

PubMed

Quinley, K M

1991-01-01

Like most businesses, adjusting companies are not charitable organizations. They are entitled to a reasonable profit, which the risk manager should not begrudge. As a buyer of adjusting services, a risk manager with an inordinate obsession with slashing adjusting bills can destroy the goal of high-quality service. It is best for risk managers to pick and choose the areas for cutting adjusting expenses. To an extent, health care risk managers should view payment of high-quality adjusting services as an investment, with the payback being money saved by fighting fraudulent, exaggerated, and questionable claims.

Iris colour, ethnic origin and progression of age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Nicolas, Caroline M; Robman, Luba D; Tikellis, Gabriella; Dimitrov, Peter N; Dowrick, Adam; Guymer, Robyn H; McCarty, Catherine A

2003-12-01

To investigate the relationship between iris colour, ethnic origin and the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Participants were recruited from the population-based Melbourne Visual Impairment Project or the prospective, randomized, double-masked Vitamin E, Cataract and Age-Related Macular Degeneration study. From these two cohorts, 171 participants aged between 52 and 93 years who were identified as having early AMD features at their baseline examination (1992-1995) were followed for an average of 6.8 years (until 2001) to determine the progression rate of early AMD. The participants' iris colour was categorized as light, intermediate or dark. Ethnic origin was categorized as Anglo-Saxon or non-Anglo-Saxon, according to the participants' grandparents' country of birth. In total, 53 (31%) of the 171 participants showed signs of AMD progression. Participants with light iris colour had twofold the risk of AMD progression of those with dark or intermediate iris colours, although the age-adjusted and multivariate-adjusted associations were not significant (both P = 0.13). Age-adjusted and multivariate comparisons of Anglo-Saxon ethnic origin to non-Anglo-Saxon ethnic origin showed a noticeable but non-significant association with progression of AMD (P= 0.22 and P= 0.14, respectively). Individuals with light iris colour or of Anglo-Saxon ethnic origin had a strong tendency to greater progression of AMD. A larger sample is required to confirm these clinically important, but statistically non-significant, associations.

Uncertainty Orientation in Chinese Children: Relations with School and Psychological Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Zhengyan; Chen, Xinyin; Sorrentino, Richard; Szeto, Andrew C. H.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine uncertainty orientation and its relations with school and psychological adjustment in Chinese children. A sample of elementary school children in P.R. China, aged 10 to 12 years, participated in the study. Data concerning uncertainty orientation, academic performance and socio-emotional adjustment were…

Age-related differences in postural adjustments in connection with different tasks involving weight transfer while standing.

PubMed

Jonsson, Erika; Henriksson, Marketta; Hirschfeld, Helga

2007-10-01

Weight transfer designed to change the area of the supportive base during the performance of three different motor tasks (one-leg stance, tandem stance and gait initiation) was examined both in healthy, physically active elderly people and younger adults. The former two tasks are balance tests used clinically. Our hypothesis was that the elderly subjects would demonstrate age-related changes in their postural adjustments that could be detected by analysis of the ground reaction forces. While 24 healthy elderly adults (65-77 years of age) and 26 younger adults (24-40 years of age) performed these three tasks, the ground reaction forces were recorded from two force plates. Prior to the onset of all three tasks, the elderly placed significantly more weight on the leg that was to provide support (the stance leg), than did the younger individuals. The analyses revealed two distinct phases of weight transfer, i.e., an initial thrust and a subsequent unloading phase. The elderly individuals exhibited a significantly longer unloading phase, as well as a higher frequency of peaks of vertical and lateral forces during this phase. Moreover, the maximal force rate during this phase was achieved at an earlier time point by the elderly. However, both groups generated forces of similar magnitudes and force rates. In conclusion, our findings indicate the presence of age-related differences in the temporal phasing of the ground reaction forces in all three of these tasks involving weight transfer, whereas the magnitude and rates of change of these forces are independent of age.

Risk Factors and Biomarkers of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PubMed Central

Lambert, Nathan G.; Singh, Malkit K.; ElShelmani, Hanan; Mansergh, Fiona C.; Wride, Michael A.; Padilla, Maximilian; Keegan, David; Hogg, Ruth E.; Ambati, Balamurali K.

2016-01-01

A biomarker can be a substance or structure measured in body parts, fluids or products that can affect or predict disease incidence. As age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, much research and effort has been invested in the identification of different biomarkers to predict disease incidence, identify at risk individuals, elucidate causative pathophysiological etiologies, guide screening, monitoring and treatment parameters, and predict disease outcomes. To date, a host of genetic, environmental, proteomic, and cellular targets have been identified as both risk factors and potential biomarkers for AMD. Despite this, their use has been confined to research settings and has not yet crossed into the clinical arena. A greater understanding of these factors and their use as potential biomarkers for AMD can guide future research and clinical practice. This article will discuss known risk factors and novel, potential biomarkers of AMD in addition to their application in both academic and clinical settings. PMID:27156982

Autism risk associated with parental age and with increasing difference in age between the parents.

PubMed

Sandin, S; Schendel, D; Magnusson, P; Hultman, C; Surén, P; Susser, E; Grønborg, T; Gissler, M; Gunnes, N; Gross, R; Henning, M; Bresnahan, M; Sourander, A; Hornig, M; Carter, K; Francis, R; Parner, E; Leonard, H; Rosanoff, M; Stoltenberg, C; Reichenberg, A

2016-05-01

Advancing paternal and maternal age have both been associated with risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASD). However, the shape of the association remains unclear, and results on the joint associations is lacking. This study tests if advancing paternal and maternal ages are independently associated with ASD risk and estimates the functional form of the associations. In a population-based cohort study from five countries (Denmark, Israel, Norway, Sweden and Western Australia) comprising 5 766 794 children born 1985-2004 and followed up to the end of 2004-2009, the relative risk (RR) of ASD was estimated by using logistic regression and splines. Our analyses included 30 902 cases of ASD. Advancing paternal and maternal age were each associated with increased RR of ASD after adjusting for confounding and the other parent's age (mothers 40-49 years vs 20-29 years, RR=1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.24), P-value<0.001; fathers⩾50 years vs 20-29 years, RR=1.66 (95% CI: 1.49-1.85), P-value<0.001). Younger maternal age was also associated with increased risk for ASD (mothers <20 years vs 20-29 years, RR=1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29), P-value<0.001). There was a joint effect of maternal and paternal age with increasing risk of ASD for couples with increasing differences in parental ages. We did not find any support for a modifying effect by the sex of the offspring. In conclusion, as shown in multiple geographic regions, increases in ASD was not only limited to advancing paternal or maternal age alone but also to differences parental age including younger or older similarly aged parents as well as disparately aged parents.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

PubMed Central

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Immediate Antiretroviral Therapy Reduces Risk of Infection-Related Cancer During Early HIV Infection.

PubMed

Borges, Álvaro H; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Babiker, Abdel G; Henry, Keith; Jain, Mamta K; Palfreeman, Adrian; Mugyenyi, Peter; Domingo, Pere; Hoffmann, Christian; Read, Tim R H; Pujari, Sanjay; Meulbroek, Michael; Johnson, Margaret; Wilkin, Timothy; Mitsuyasu, Ronald

2016-12-15

 In the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment (START) study, immediate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation reduced cancer risk by 64%. We hypothesized that risk reduction was higher for infection-related cancer and determined by differences in CD4 cell counts and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA between the study arms.  Incident malignancies in START were categorized into infection-related and infection-unrelated cancer. We used Cox models to assess factors associated with both cancer categories. We used sequential adjustment for baseline covariates, cancer risk factors, and HIV-specific variables to investigate potential mediators of cancer risk reduction with immediate cART.  There were 14 cancers among persons randomized to immediate cART (6 infection-related and 8 infection-unrelated) and 39 cancers in the deferred arm (23 infection-related and 16 infection-unrelated); hazard ratios of immediate vs deferred cART initiation were 0.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], .11-.64) for infection-related and 0.49 (95% CI, .21-1.15) for infection-unrelated cancer. Independent predictors of infection-related cancer were older age, higher body mass index, low- to middle-income region, HIV RNA, and baseline CD8 cell count. Older age and baseline CD8 cell count were independent predictors of infection-unrelated cancer. Adjustment for latest HIV RNA level had little impact on the protective effect of immediate cART on infection-related cancer. Adjustment for latest HIV RNA level, but not for CD4 cell count or cancer risk factors, attenuated the effect of immediate cART on infection-unrelated cancer.  Immediate cART initiation significantly reduces risk of cancer. Although limited by small sample size, this benefit does not appear to be solely attributable to HIV RNA suppression and may be also mediated by other mechanisms. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights

Aldosterone dysregulation with aging predicts renal vascular function and cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Brown, Jenifer M; Underwood, Patricia C; Ferri, Claudio; Hopkins, Paul N; Williams, Gordon H; Adler, Gail K; Vaidya, Anand

2014-06-01

Aging and abnormal aldosterone regulation are both associated with vascular disease. We hypothesized that aldosterone dysregulation influences the age-related risk of renal vascular and cardiovascular disease. We conducted an analysis of 562 subjects who underwent detailed investigations under conditions of liberal and restricted dietary sodium intake (1124 visits) in the General Clinical Research Center. Aldosterone regulation was characterized by the ratio of maximal suppression to stimulation (supine serum aldosterone on a liberal sodium diet divided by the same measure on a restricted sodium diet). We previously demonstrated that higher levels of this Sodium-modulated Aldosterone Suppression-Stimulation Index (SASSI) indicate greater aldosterone dysregulation. Renal plasma flow (RPF) was determined via p-aminohippurate clearance to assess basal renal hemodynamics and the renal vascular responses to dietary sodium manipulation and angiotensin II infusion. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score. In univariate linear regression, older age (β=-4.60; P<0.0001) and higher SASSI (β=-58.63; P=0.001) predicted lower RPF and a blunted RPF response to sodium loading and angiotensin II infusion. We observed a continuous, independent, multivariate-adjusted interaction between age and SASSI, where the inverse relationship between SASSI and RPF was most apparent with older age (P<0.05). Higher SASSI and lower RPF independently predicted higher Framingham Risk Score (P<0.0001) and together displayed an additive effect. Aldosterone regulation and age may interact to mediate renal vascular disease. Our findings suggest that the combination of aldosterone dysregulation and renal vascular dysfunction could additively increase the risk of future cardiovascular outcomes; therefore, aldosterone dysregulation may represent a modifiable mechanism of age-related vascular disease.

Age at Last Birth in Relation to Risk of Endometrial Cancer: Pooled Analysis in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium

PubMed Central

Setiawan, Veronica Wendy; Pike, Malcolm C.; Karageorgi, Stalo; Deming, Sandra L.; Anderson, Kristin; Bernstein, Leslie; Brinton, Louise A.; Cai, Hui; Cerhan, James R.; Cozen, Wendy; Chen, Chu; Doherty, Jennifer; Freudenheim, Jo L.; Goodman, Marc T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Lacey, James V.; Liang, Xiaolin; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Lingeng; Lurie, Galina; Mack, Thomas; Matsuno, Rayna K.; McCann, Susan; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Rastogi, Radhai; Rebbeck, Timothy R.; Risch, Harvey; Robien, Kim; Schairer, Catherine; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Strom, Brian L.; Thompson, Pamela J.; Ursin, Giske; Webb, Penelope M.; Weiss, Noel S.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Yang, Hannah P.; Yu, Herbert; Horn-Ross, Pamela L.; De Vivo, Immaculata

2012-01-01

Childbearing at an older age has been associated with a lower risk of endometrial cancer, but whether the association is independent of the number of births or other factors remains unclear. Individual-level data from 4 cohort and 13 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium were pooled. A total of 8,671 cases of endometrial cancer and 16,562 controls were included in the analysis. After adjustment for known risk factors, endometrial cancer risk declined with increasing age at last birth (Ptrend < 0.0001). The pooled odds ratio per 5-year increase in age at last birth was 0.87 (95% confidence interval: 0.85, 0.90). Women who last gave birth at 40 years of age or older had a 44% decreased risk compared with women who had their last birth under the age of 25 years (95% confidence interval: 47, 66). The protective association was similar across the different age-at-diagnosis groups and for the 2 major tumor histologic subtypes (type I and type II). No effect modification was observed by body mass index, parity, or exogenous hormone use. In this large pooled analysis, late age at last birth was independently associated with a reduced risk of endometrial cancer, and the reduced risk persisted for many years. PMID:22831825

Relations between Political Violence and Child Adjustment: A Four-Wave Test of the Role of Emotional Insecurity about Community

PubMed Central

Cummings, E. Mark; Taylor, Laura K.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

2015-01-01

This study further explored the impact of sectarian violence and children’s emotional insecurity about community on child maladjustment using a four-wave longitudinal design. The study included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast, Northern Ireland (482 boys, 517 girls). Across the four-waves, child mean age was 12.19 (SD = 1.82), 13.24 (SD = 1.83), 13.61 (SD = 1.99), and 14.66 years (SD = 1.96), respectively. Building on previous studies of the role of emotional insecurity in child adjustment, the current study examines within-person change in emotional insecurity using latent growth curve analyses. The results showed that children’s trajectories of emotional insecurity about community were related to risk for developing conduct and emotion problems. These findings controlled for earlier adjustment problems, age and gender, and took into account the time-varying nature of experience with sectarian violence. Discussion considers the implications for children’s emotional insecurity about community for relations between political violence and children’s adjustment, including the significance of trajectories of emotional insecurity over time. PMID:23527495

School-age outcomes of infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Miller, Meghan; Iosif, Ana-Maria; Young, Gregory S; Hill, Monique; Phelps Hanzel, Elise; Hutman, Ted; Johnson, Scott; Ozonoff, Sally

2016-06-01

Studies of infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have proliferated, but few of these samples have been followed longer-term. We conducted a follow-up study, at age 5.5-9 years, of younger siblings of children with ASD (high-risk group, n = 79) or typical development (low-risk group, n = 60), originally recruited as infants. Children with ASD were excluded because of the focus on understanding the range of non-ASD outcomes among high-risk siblings. Using examiner ratings, parent ratings, and standardized assessments, we evaluated differences in clinical outcomes, psychopathology symptoms, autism symptoms, language skills, and nonverbal cognitive abilities. After adjusting for covariates, the high-risk group had increased odds of any clinically elevated/impaired score across measures relative to the low-risk group (43% vs. 12%, respectively). The high-risk group also had increased odds of examiner-rated Clinical Concerns (CC) outcomes (e.g., ADHD concerns, broader autism phenotype, speech-language difficulties, anxiety/mood problems, learning problems) relative to the low-risk group (38% vs. 13%, respectively). The high-risk group with CC outcomes had higher parent-reported psychopathology and autism symptoms, and lower directly-assessed language skills, than the Low-Risk Typically Developing (TD) and High-Risk TD groups, which did not differ. There were no differences in nonverbal cognitive skills. For some in the high-risk group, clinical concerns persisted from early childhood, whereas for others clinical concerns were first evident at school-age. Results suggest continued vulnerability in at least a subgroup of school-age children with a family history of ASD and suggest that this population may benefit from continued screening and monitoring into the school-age years. Autism Res 2016, 9: 632-642. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals

Longitudinal Associations Between Sibling Relational Aggression and Adolescent Adjustment.

PubMed

Gallagher, Annabella M; Updegraff, Kimberly A; Padilla, Jenny; McHale, Susan M

2018-06-20

Sibling relational aggression is an important but understudied dimension of sibling relationships that has potential implications for adolescents' adjustment. This study examined the longitudinal associations between being the target of sibling relational aggression and adolescent adjustment (i.e., depressive symptoms, risky behavior, self-worth, and romantic competence) among younger and older siblings over a three-year period in adolescence. The moderating roles of birth order, sibling gender, and sibling dyad gender constellation also were tested. Participants were 196 European American adolescent (firstborn-secondborn) sibling pairs who were 16.47 years (SD = 0.80) and 13.88 years (SD = 1.15) of age, respectively, at the onset of this study. Data were collected separately from each sibling during home interviews. Multilevel models revealed that being the target of sibling relational aggression was associated with all four adjustment outcomes at the between-person level, and with risky behavior and romantic competence at the within-person level. However, some of these effects were moderated by sibling dyad characteristics. Although often overlooked in the literature on adolescence, sibling relationship dynamics play a key role in youth development and adjustment.

Age at onset and persistence of eczema are related to subsequent risk of asthma and hay fever from birth to 18 years of age.

PubMed

Lowe, Adrian J; Angelica, Bianca; Su, John; Lodge, Caroline J; Hill, David J; Erbas, Bircan; Bennett, Catherine M; Gurrin, Lyle C; Axelrad, Christine; Abramson, Michael J; Allen, Katrina J; Dharmage, Shyamali C

2017-06-01

Few studies have simultaneously addressed the importance of age of onset and persistence of eczema for the subsequent development of asthma and hay fever, particularly into early adulthood. A high-risk birth cohort was recruited comprising 620 infants, who were then followed up frequently until 2 years of age, annually from age 3 to 7, then at 12 and 18 years, to document any episodes of eczema, current asthma, and hay fever. The generalized estimation equation technique was used to examine asthma and hay fever outcomes at 6 (n = 325), 12 (n = 248) and 18 (n = 240) years, when there was consistency of associations across the follow-ups. Very early-onset persistent (onset <6 months, still present from 2 to 5 years) eczema was related to current asthma (adjusted OR = 3.2 [95% CI = 1.7-6.1]), as was very early-onset remitting eczema (onset <6 months but not present from 2-5 years, OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.0-7.2) and early-onset persistent eczema (onset from 6-24 months, OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.2-4.7). Late-onset eczema (commenced from 2-5 years) was associated with increased risk of asthma at 12 years (OR = 3.0, 95% CI=1.1-8.2) but not at age 6 years. Only very early-onset persistent eczema was associated with increased risk of hay fever (aOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.4-4.1). Eczema which commences in early infancy and persists into toddler years is strongly associated with asthma, and to a lesser extent hay fever, in high-risk children. If these associations are causal, prevention of early-life eczema might reduce the risk of respiratory allergy. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

HISTORY OF SUNLIGHT EXPOSURE IS A RISK FACTOR FOR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION.

PubMed

Schick, Tina; Ersoy, Lebriz; Lechanteur, Yara T E; Saksens, Nicole T M; Hoyng, Carel B; den Hollander, Anneke I; Kirchhof, Bernd; Fauser, Sascha

2016-04-01

To evaluate effects of current and past sunlight exposure and iris color on early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Of 3,701 individuals from the EUGENDA database, 752 (20.3%) showed early AMD, 1,179 (31.9%) late AMD, and 1,770 (47.8%) were controls. Information about current and past sunlight exposure, former occupation type, subdivided in indoor working and outdoor working, and iris color were obtained by standardized interviewer-assisted questionnaires. Associations between environmental factors adjusted for age, gender, and smoking and early and late AMD were performed by multivariate regression analysis. Current sunlight exposure showed no association with early AMD or late AMD, but past sunlight exposure (≥8 hours outside daily) was significantly associated with early AMD (odds ratio: 5.54, 95% confidence interval 1.25-24.58, P = 0.02) and late AMD (odds ratio: 2.77, 95% confidence interval 1.25-6.16, P = 0.01). Outside working was found to be associated with late AMD (odds ratio: 2.57, 95% confidence interval 1.89-3.48, P = 1.58 × 10). No association was observed between iris color and early or late AMD. Sunlight exposure during working life is an important risk factor for AMD, whereas sunlight exposure after retirement seems to have less influence on the disease development. Therefore, preventive measures, for example, wearing sunglasses to minimize sunlight exposure, should start early to prevent development of AMD later in life.

Kinship Support, Family Relations, and Psychological Adjustment among Low-Income African American Mothers and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Ronald D.; Seaton, Eleanor; Dominguez, Antonio

2008-01-01

The association of kin social support with mothers' adjustment and family relations was assessed among 204 African American mothers and adolescents who were on average 14.45 years of age. Also examined was the association of mothers' adjustment with family relations and adolescents' adjustment. Findings revealed that kin social and emotional…

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Relation of Parental Transitions to Boys' Adjustment Problems: I.A. Linear Hypothesis II. Mothers at Risk for Transitions and Unskilled Parenting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capaldi, D. M.; Patterson, G. R.

1991-01-01

Examined the adjustment of boys from intact, single-mother, stepfather, and multiple-transition families. Boys who had experienced multiple transitions showed the poorest adjustment. The antisocial mother was most at risk for transitions and unskilled parenting practices, which in turn placed her son at risk for poor adjustment. (BC)

Risk Adjustment for Medicare Total Knee Arthroplasty Bundled Payments.

PubMed

Clement, R Carter; Derman, Peter B; Kheir, Michael M; Soo, Adrianne E; Flynn, David N; Levin, L Scott; Fleisher, Lee

2016-09-01

The use of bundled payments is growing because of their potential to align providers and hospitals on the goal of cost reduction. However, such gain sharing could incentivize providers to "cherry-pick" more profitable patients. Risk adjustment can prevent this unintended consequence, yet most bundling programs include minimal adjustment techniques. This study was conducted to determine how bundled payments for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) should be adjusted for risk. The authors collected financial data for all Medicare patients (age≥65 years) undergoing primary unilateral TKA at an academic center over a period of 2 years (n=941). Multivariate regression was performed to assess the effect of patient factors on the costs of acute inpatient care, including unplanned 30-day readmissions. This analysis mirrors a bundling model used in the Medicare Bundled Payments for Care Improvement initiative. Increased age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, and the presence of a Medicare Major Complications/Comorbid Conditions (MCC) modifier (typically representing major complications) were associated with increased costs (regression coefficients, $57 per year; $729 per ASA class beyond I; and $3122 for patients meeting MCC criteria; P=.003, P=.001, and P<.001, respectively). Differences in costs were not associated with body mass index, sex, or race. If the results are generalizable, Medicare bundled payments for TKA encompassing acute inpatient care should be adjusted upward by the stated amounts for older patients, those with elevated ASA class, and patients meeting MCC criteria. This is likely an underestimate for many bundling models, including the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement program, incorporating varying degrees of postacute care. Failure to adjust for factors that affect costs may create adverse incentives, creating barriers to care for certain patient populations. [Orthopedics. 2016; 39(5):e911-e916.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

20 CFR 229.51 - Adjustment of age reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Adjustment of age reduction. 229.51 Section... age reduction. (a) General. If an age reduced employee or spouse overall minimum benefit is not paid for certain months before the employee or spouse attains retirement age, or the employee becomes...

Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors

PubMed Central

Ramin, Cody; Devore, Elizabeth E; Wang, Weike; Pierre-Paul, Jeffrey; Wegrzyn, Lani R; Schernhammer, Eva S

2014-01-01

Objectives We examined the association of night shift work history and age when night shift work was performed with cancer and cardiovascular disease risk factors among 54 724 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) II. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and socioeconomic status-adjusted means and percentages for cancer and cardiovascular risk factors in 2009 across categories of night shift work history. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for key risk factors among 54 724 participants (72% ever shift workers). We further examined these associations by age (20–25, 26–35, 36– 45 and 46+ years) at which shift work was performed. Results Ever night shift workers had increased odds of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2; OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.43); higher caffeine intake (≥131 mg/day; OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22) and total calorie intake (≥1715 kcal/day; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); current smoking (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.42); and shorter sleep durations (≤7 h of sleep/day; OR=1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.24) compared to never night shift workers. These estimates varied depending on age at which night work was performed, with a suggestion that night shift work before age 25 was associated with fewer risk factors compared to night shift work at older ages. Conclusions Our results indicate that night shift work may contribute to an adverse chronic disease risk profile, and that risk factors may vary depending on the age at which night shift work was performed. PMID:25261528

Effects of autistic traits on social and school adjustment in children and adolescents: the moderating roles of age and gender.

PubMed

Hsiao, Mei-Ni; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Huang, Hui-Yi; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

2013-01-01

This study examined the associations between children's and adolescents' autistic-like social deficits and school and social adjustment as well as the moderating roles of age and gender in these associations. The sample consisted of 1321 students (48.7% boys) in Grade 1 to Grade 8 from northern Taiwan. Children's and adolescents' autistic-like social deficits were assessed using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), and their school and social adjustment (i.e., academic performance, negative attitudes toward schoolwork/teachers/classmates, behavioral problems at schools, negative peer relationships, and problems with peers) were assessed using the Social Adjustment Inventory for Children and Adolescents (SAICA). Both measures were completed by the mothers of the participants. Results from the linear mixed models demonstrated that autistic-like social deficits were associated with poor academic performance, negative attitudes toward schoolwork, teachers, and classmates, behavioral problems at schools, negative peer relationships, and problematic peer interactions. Moreover, gender and/or age moderated the associations between autistic-like social deficits and school and social adjustment problems. For example, autistic-like social deficits were more strongly related to negative school attitude, school social problems, and negative peer relationships in boys than in girls. Further, autistic-like social deficits were more strongly related to problems with peers in older girls than in older boys or younger children (regardless of gender). In conclusion, the present study suggests that autistic-like social deficits may place children and adolescents at increased risk for social and school maladjustment and that the extent of maladjustment may vary with the child's age and gender and the domains of adjustment under discussion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

PubMed

Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

2015-11-01

To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P < .001), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (r = 0.34, P < .001), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (r = 0.26, P < .001), triglycerides (r = 0.19, P = .01), and insulin sensitivity (r = 0.22, P = .02) as well as CSs (r = 0.15, P = .02). After adjustment for BMI all parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for exudative age-related macular degeneration in a large French case-control study.

PubMed

Zerbib, Jennyfer; Delcourt, Cécile; Puche, Nathalie; Querques, Giuseppe; Cohen, Salomon Yves; Sahel, José; Korobelnik, Jean-François; Le Goff, Mélanie; Souied, Eric H

2014-06-01

The purpose of the CAP (Creteil AMD PHRC-funded) Study was to analyze risk factors of exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a large French case-control population. One thousand and twenty-four patients with exudative AMD and 275 controls were recruited. Information about lifestyle, medical history, and dietary intake were collected. Associations of risk factors were estimated using logistic regression. After multivariate adjustment, CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S polymorphisms were associated with very high risk for exudative AMD (OR = 6.21 and OR = 11.7, respectively, p < 0.0001). Risk for exudative AMD was increased in current smokers (OR = 3.79, p = 0.0003) and former smokers having quitted since less than 20 years ago (OR = 2.30, p = 0.002), but not in former smokers having quitted since 20 years or more ago (OR = 0.81, p = 0.43). Heavy smokers (at least 25 pack-years) were particularly at risk (OR = 3.61, p < 0.0001). Use of cooking oils rich in omega 3 fatty acids was significantly associated with a reduced risk of exudative AMD (OR = 0.55, 95 % CI: 0.36-0.84, p = 0.006), as well as a high consumption of fruits (OR = 0.60, 95 % CI: 0.37-0.98, p = 0.04), but not the consumption of fish, vegetables or oils rich in omega 6. High waist circumference was associated with increased risk for exudative AMD (OR = 2.53, p < 0.0001), but not hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, or body mass index. The CAP Study confirms major genetic risk factors for exudative AMD. It further documents the high risk in heavy smokers and the long persistence of risk after smoking cessation, and the associations with waist circumference and fruit consumption. Furthermore, we observed an inverse correlation between AMD and cooking oils harboring a beneficial omega-3 fatty acid profile.

78 FR 32255 - HHS-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-29

...-Operated Risk Adjustment Data Validation Stakeholder Meeting AGENCY: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid... Act HHS-operated risk adjustment data validation process. The purpose of this public meeting is to... interested parties about key HHS policy considerations pertaining to the HHS-operated risk adjustment data...

ALDOSTERONE DYSREGULATION WITH AGING PREDICTS RENAL-VASCULAR FUNCTION AND CARDIO-VASCULAR RISK

PubMed Central

Brown, Jenifer M.; Underwood, Patricia C.; Ferri, Claudio; Hopkins, Paul N.; Williams, Gordon H.; Adler, Gail K.; Vaidya, Anand

2014-01-01

Aging and abnormal aldosterone regulation are both associated with vascular disease. We hypothesized that aldosterone dysregulation influences the age-related risk of renal- and cardio-vascular disease. We conducted an analysis of 562 subjects who underwent detailed investigations under conditions of liberal and restricted dietary sodium intake (1,124 visits) in a Clinical Research Center. Aldosterone regulation was characterized by the ratio of maximal suppression-to-stimulation (supine serum aldosterone on a liberal sodium diet divided by the same measure on a restricted sodium diet). We previously demonstrated that higher levels of this Sodium-modulated Aldosterone Suppression-Stimulation Index (SASSI) indicate greater aldosterone dysregulation. Renal plasma flow (RPF) was determined via p-aminohippurate clearance to assess basal renal hemodynamics, and the renal-vascular responses to dietary sodium manipulation and angiotensin II (AngII) infusion. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score. In univariate linear regression, older age (β= -4.60, p<0.0001) and higher SASSI (β= -58.63, p=0.001) predicted lower RPF and a blunted RPF response to sodium loading and AngII infusion. We observed a continuous, independent, multivariate-adjusted interaction between age and SASSI, where the inverse relationship between SASSI and RPF was most apparent with older age (p<0.05). Higher SASSI and lower RPF independently predicted higher Framingham Risk Score (p<0.0001) and together displayed an additive effect. Aldosterone regulation and age may interact to mediate renal-vascular disease. Our findings suggest that the combination of aldosterone dysregulation and renal-vascular dysfunction could additively increase the risk of future cardiovascular outcomes; therefore, aldosterone dysregulation may represent a modifiable mechanism of age-related vascular disease. PMID:24664291

Comparison of the predictive validity of diagnosis-based risk adjusters for clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Petersen, Laura A; Pietz, Kenneth; Woodard, LeChauncy D; Byrne, Margaret

2005-01-01

Many possible methods of risk adjustment exist, but there is a dearth of comparative data on their performance. We compared the predictive validity of 2 widely used methods (Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs] and Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs]) for 2 clinical outcomes using a large national sample of patients. We studied all patients who used Veterans Health Administration (VA) medical services in fiscal year (FY) 2001 (n = 3,069,168) and assigned both a DCG and an ACG to each. We used logistic regression analyses to compare predictive ability for death or long-term care (LTC) hospitalization for age/gender models, DCG models, and ACG models. We also assessed the effect of adding age to the DCG and ACG models. Patients in the highest DCG categories, indicating higher severity of illness, were more likely to die or to require LTC hospitalization. Surprisingly, the age/gender model predicted death slightly more accurately than the ACG model (c-statistic of 0.710 versus 0.700, respectively). The addition of age to the ACG model improved the c-statistic to 0.768. The highest c-statistic for prediction of death was obtained with a DCG/age model (0.830). The lowest c-statistics were obtained for age/gender models for LTC hospitalization (c-statistic 0.593). The c-statistic for use of ACGs to predict LTC hospitalization was 0.783, and improved to 0.792 with the addition of age. The c-statistics for use of DCGs and DCG/age to predict LTC hospitalization were 0.885 and 0.890, respectively, indicating the best prediction. We found that risk adjusters based upon diagnoses predicted an increased likelihood of death or LTC hospitalization, exhibiting good predictive validity. In this comparative analysis using VA data, DCG models were generally superior to ACG models in predicting clinical outcomes, although ACG model performance was enhanced by the addition of age.

HIV-Related Stigma, Shame, and Avoidant Coping: Risk Factors for Internalizing Symptoms Among Youth Living with HIV?

PubMed

Bennett, David S; Hersh, Jill; Herres, Joanna; Foster, Jill

2016-08-01

Youth living with HIV (YLH) are at elevated risk of internalizing symptoms, although there is substantial individual variability in adjustment. We examined perceived HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping as risk factors of internalizing symptoms among YLH. Participants (N = 88; ages 12-24) completed self-report measures of these potential risk factors and three domains of internalizing symptoms (depressive, anxiety, and PTSD) during a regularly scheduled HIV clinic visit. Hierarchical regressions were conducted for each internalizing symptoms domain, examining the effects of age, gender, and maternal education (step 1), HIV-related stigma (step 2), shame- and guilt-proneness (step 3), and avoidant coping (step 4). HIV-related stigma, shame-proneness, and avoidant coping were each correlated with greater depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms. Specificity was observed in that shame-proneness, but not guilt-proneness, was associated with greater internalizing symptoms. In multivariable analyses, HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness were each related to greater depressive and PTSD symptoms. Controlling for the effects of HIV-related stigma and shame-proneness, avoidant coping was associated with PTSD symptoms. The current findings highlight the potential importance of HIV-related stigma, shame, and avoidant coping on the adjustment of YLH, as interventions addressing these risk factors could lead to decreased internalizing symptoms among YLH.

Risk factors for chronic undernutrition among children in India: Estimating relative importance, population attributable risk and fractions.

PubMed

Corsi, Daniel J; Mejía-Guevara, Iván; Subramanian, S V

2016-05-01

Nearly 40% of the world's stunted children live in India and the prevalence of undernutrition has been persistently high in recent decades. Given numerous available interventions for reducing undernutrition in children, it is not clear of the relative importance of each within a multifactorial framework. We assess the simultaneous contribution of 15 known risk factors for child chronic undernutrition in India. Data are from the 3rd Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey undertaken in 2005-2006. The study population consisted of children aged 6-59 months [n = 26,842 (stunting/low height-for-age), n = 27,483 (underweight/low weight-for-age)]. Risk factors examined for their association with undernutrition were: vitamin A supplementation, vaccination, use of iodized salt, household air quality, improved sanitary facilities, safe disposal of stools, improved drinking water, prevalence of infectious disease, initiation of breastfeeding, dietary diversity, age at marriage, maternal BMI, height, education, and household wealth. Age/sex-adjusted and multivariable adjusted effect sizes (odds ratios) were calculated for risk factors along with Population Attributable Risks (PAR) and Fractions (PAF) using logistic regression. In the mutually adjusted models, the five most important predictors of childhood stunting/underweight were short maternal stature, mother having no education, households in lowest wealth quintile, poor dietary diversity, and maternal underweight. These five factors had a combined PAR of 67.2% (95% CI: 63.3-70.7) and 69.7% (95% CI: 66.3-72.8) for stunting and underweight, respectively. The remaining factors were associated with a combined PAR of 11.7% (95% CI: 6.0-17.4) and 15.1% (95% CI: 8.9-21.3) for stunting and underweight, respectively. Implementing strategies focused on broader progress on social circumstances and infrastructural domains as well as investments in nutrition specific

Association between Variants in Atopy-Related Immunologic Candidate Genes and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Cotterchio, Michelle; Lowcock, Elizabeth; Bider-Canfield, Zoe; Lemire, Mathieu; Greenwood, Celia; Gallinger, Steven; Hudson, Thomas

2015-01-01

Many epidemiology studies report that atopic conditions such as allergies are associated with reduced pancreas cancer risk. The reason for this relationship is not yet understood. This is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the association between variants in atopy-related candidate genes and pancreatic cancer risk. A population-based case-control study of pancreas cancer cases diagnosed during 2011-2012 (via Ontario Cancer Registry), and controls recruited using random digit dialing utilized DNA from 179 cases and 566 controls. Following an exhaustive literature review, SNPs in 180 candidate genes were pre-screened using dbGaP pancreas cancer GWAS data; 147 SNPs in 56 allergy-related immunologic genes were retained and genotyped. Logistic regression was used to estimate age-adjusted odd ratio (AOR) for each variant and false discovery rate was used to adjust Wald p-values for multiple testing. Subsequently, a risk allele score was derived based on statistically significant variants. 18 SNPs in 14 candidate genes (CSF2, DENND1B, DPP10, FLG, IL13, IL13RA2, LRP1B, NOD1, NPSR1, ORMDL3, RORA, STAT4, TLR6, TRA) were significantly associated with pancreas cancer risk. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, two LRP1B SNPs remained statistically significant; for example, LRP1B rs1449477 (AA vs. CC: AOR=0.37, 95% CI: 0.22-0.62; p (adjusted)=0.04). Furthermore, the risk allele score was associated with a significant reduction in pancreas cancer risk (p=0.0007). Preliminary findings suggest certain atopy-related variants may be associated with pancreas cancer risk. Further studies are needed to replicate this, and to elucidate the biology behind the growing body of epidemiologic evidence suggesting allergies may reduce pancreatic cancer risk.

Marital adjustment, marital discord over childrearing, and child behavior problems: moderating effects of child age.

PubMed

Mahoney, A; Jouriles, E N; Scavone, J

1997-12-01

Examined whether marital discord over childrearing contributes to child behavior problems after taking into account general marital adjustment, and if child age moderates associations between child behavior problems and either general marital adjustment or marital discord over childrearing. Participants were 146 two-parent families seeking services for their child's (4 to 9 years of age) conduct problems. Data on marital functioning and child behavior problems were collected from both parents. Mothers' and fathers' reports of marital discord over childrearing related positively to child externalizing problems after accounting for general marital adjustment. Child age moderated associations between fathers' reports of general marital adjustment and both internalizing and externalizing child problems, with associations being stronger in families with younger children. The discussion highlights the role that developmental factors may play in understanding the link between marital and child behavior problems in clinic-referred families.

Incidence of Intermediate-stage Age-related Macular Degeneration in Patients With Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome.

PubMed

Jabs, Douglas A; Van Natta, Mark L; Pak, Jeong Won; Danis, Ronald P; Hunt, Peter W

2017-07-01

To evaluate the incidence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Cohort study. Patients enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS (LSOCA) underwent 5- and 10-year follow-up retinal photographs. Intermediate-stage AMD (AREDS stage 3) was determined from these photographs by graders at a centralized Reading Center, using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study-2 grading system. The incidence of AMD in LSOCA was compared with that in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-uninfected cohort, which used a similar photographic methodology. The incidence of AMD in LSOCA was 0.65/100 person-years (PY). In a multivariate analysis the only significant risk factor for AMD in LSOCA was smoking; the relative risk vs never-smokers was 3.4 for former smokers (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3, 9.5; P = .02) and 3.3 for current smokers (95% CI 1.1, 9.7; P = .03). Compared with the MESA cohort, the race/ethnicity- and sex-adjusted risk of AMD in LSOCA was 1.75 (95% CI 1.16, 2.64; P = .008), despite the fact that the mean age of the MESA cohort was 17 years greater than the LSOCA cohort (61 ± 9 years vs 44 ± 8 years). Patients with AIDS have a 1.75-fold increased race- and sex-adjusted incidence of intermediate-stage AMD compared with that found in an HIV-uninfected cohort. This increased incidence is consistent with the increased incidence of other age-related diseases in antiretroviral-treated, immune-restored, HIV-infected persons when compared with HIV-uninfected persons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

PubMed Central

Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

2004-01-01

This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

20 CFR 228.16 - Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF... RETIREMENT ACT COMPUTATION OF SURVIVOR ANNUITIES The Tier I Annuity Component § 228.16 Adjustments in the age reduction factor (ARF). Upon the attainment of retirement age, the previously-computed age reduction factor...

Age adjustment in ecological studies: using a study on arsenic ingestion and bladder cancer as an example.

PubMed

Guo, How-Ran

2011-10-20

Despite its limitations, ecological study design is widely applied in epidemiology. In most cases, adjustment for age is necessary, but different methods may lead to different conclusions. To compare three methods of age adjustment, a study on the associations between arsenic in drinking water and incidence of bladder cancer in 243 townships in Taiwan was used as an example. A total of 3068 cases of bladder cancer, including 2276 men and 792 women, were identified during a ten-year study period in the study townships. Three methods were applied to analyze the same data set on the ten-year study period. The first (Direct Method) applied direct standardization to obtain standardized incidence rate and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis. The second (Indirect Method) applied indirect standardization to obtain standardized incidence ratio and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis instead. The third (Variable Method) used proportions of residents in different age groups as a part of the independent variables in the multiple regression models. All three methods showed a statistically significant positive association between arsenic exposure above 0.64 mg/L and incidence of bladder cancer in men and women, but different results were observed for the other exposure categories. In addition, the risk estimates obtained by different methods for the same exposure category were all different. Using an empirical example, the current study confirmed the argument made by other researchers previously that whereas the three different methods of age adjustment may lead to different conclusions, only the third approach can obtain unbiased estimates of the risks. The third method can also generate estimates of the risk associated with each age group, but the other two are unable to evaluate the effects of age directly.

Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 May - 2013 - 14 May 2014. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child ...parents (N=200) whose spouse/partner is currently in a “low perceived risk” deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison

Cancer Risk in Relatives of Testicular Cancer Patients by Histology Type and Age at Diagnosis: A Joint Study from Five Nordic Countries.

PubMed

Kharazmi, Elham; Hemminki, Kari; Pukkala, Eero; Sundquist, Kristina; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Tretli, Steinar; Olsen, Jörgen H; Fallah, Mahdi

2015-08-01

None of the population-based epidemiologic studies to date has had a large enough sample size to show the familial risk of testicular cancer (TC) by age at diagnosis for patients and their relatives or for rare histologic subtypes. To estimate absolute and relative risks of TC in relatives of TC patients by age at diagnosis in patients and their relatives and histological subtypes. In a joint population-based cohort study, 97 402 first-degree relatives of 21 254 TC patients who were diagnosed between 1955 and 2010 in five European countries were followed for cancer incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated using histology-, age-, period-, and country-specific incidence rates as references. Lifetime cumulative risks were also calculated. The lifetime cumulative risk of TC in brothers of a patient with TC was 2.3%, which represents a fourfold increase in risk (SIR 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6-4.6) compared to the general population. TC in a father increased the risk by up to twofold in his son (95% CI 1.7-2.4; lifetime risk 1.2%) and vice versa. When there were two or more TC patients diagnosed in a family, the lifetime TC risk for relatives was 10-11%. Depending on age at diagnosis, twins had a 9-74% lifetime risk of TC. Family history of most of the histologic subtypes of TC increased the risk of concordant and most discordant subtypes. There was a tendency toward concordant age at diagnosis of TC among relatives. This study provides clinically relevant age-specific cancer risk estimates for relatives of TC patients. Familial TC patients tended to develop TC at an age close to the age at diagnosis of TC among their relatives, which is a novel finding of this study. This joint European population study showed that sons and brothers of testicular cancer patients are at higher risk of developing this cancer at an age close to the age at diagnosis of their relatives. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Immigrant generation and diabetes risk among Mexican Americans: the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging].

PubMed

Afable-Munsuz, Aimee; Mayeda, Elizabeth Rose; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J; Haan, Mary N

2013-08-01

We examined whether acculturation and immigrant generation, a marker for assimilation, are associated with diabetes risk in an aging Mexican origin population. We analyzed data on 1789 adults aged 60 to 101 years from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging. We ascertained type 2 diabetes on the basis of diabetic medication use, self-report of physician diagnosis, or a fasting glucose of 126 milligrams/deciliter or greater. Logistic regression modeled prevalent diabetes. Adjusting for age and gender, we observed significant but divergent associations between immigrant generation, acculturation, and diabetes risk. Relative to first-generation adults, second-generation adults had an odds ratio (OR) of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4, 2.4) and third-generation adults had an OR of 2.1 (95% CI = 1.4, 3.1) of having diabetes. Greater US acculturation, however, was associated with a slightly decreased diabetes rate. In the full model adjusting for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, the association between generation (but not acculturation) and diabetes remained significant. Our study lends support to the previously contested notion that assimilation is associated with an increased diabetes risk in Mexican immigrants. Researchers should examine the presence of a causal link between assimilation and health more closely.

Global risk factor rankings: the importance of age-based health loss inequities caused by alcohol and other risk factors.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-06-09

Achieving health equity is a priority of the World Health Organization; however, there is a scant amount of literature on this topic. As the underlying influences that determine health loss caused by risk factors are age-dependent, the aim of this paper is to examine how the risk factor rankings for health loss differ by age. Rankings were based on data obtained from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. Health loss (as measured by Disability Adjusted Life Years lost) by risk factor was estimated using Population-Attributable Fractions, years of life lost due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability, which were calculated for 187 countries, 20 age groups and both sexes. Uncertainties of the risk factor rankings were estimated using 1,000 simulations taken from posterior distributions The top risk factors by age were: household air pollution for neonates 0-6 days of age [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1 to 1]; suboptimal breast feeding for children 7-27 days of age (95% UI: 1-1); childhood underweight for children 28 days to less than 1 year of age and 1-4 years of age (95% UI: 1-2 and 1-1, respectively); iron deficiency for children and youth 5-14 years of age (95% UI: 1-1); alcohol use for people 15-49 years of age (95% UI: 1-2); and dietary risks for people 50 years of age and older (95% UI: 1-1). Rankings of risk factors varied by sex among the older age groups. Alcohol and smoking were the most important risk factors among men 15 years of age and older, and high body mass and intimate partner violence were some of the most important risk factors among women 15 years of age and older. Our analyses confirm that the relative importance of risk factors is age-dependent. Therefore, preventing harms caused by various modifiable risk factors using interventions that target people of different ages should be a priority, especially since easily implemented and cost-effective public health interventions exist.

Triiodothyronine and free thyroxine levels are differentially associated with metabolic profile and adiposity-related cardiovascular risk markers in euthyroid middle-aged subjects.

PubMed

Roef, Greet L; Rietzschel, Ernst R; Van Daele, Caroline M; Taes, Youri E; De Buyzere, Marc L; Gillebert, Thierry C; Kaufman, Jean-Marc

2014-02-01

We have previously shown that in healthy young men, a less favorable body composition is associated with higher free triiodothyronine (fT3) levels within the euthyroid range. Besides, a higher free-triiodothyronine-to-free-thyroxin (fT3-to-fT4) ratio has been related to a less favorable metabolic phenotype and more placental growth in pregnant women. In the present study, we therefore investigated whether serum thyrotropin (TSH), thyroid hormone levels, and the fT3-to-fT4 ratio are associated with metabolic and adiposity-related cardiovascular risk markers in a healthy population of middle-aged euthyroid men and women. Thyroid parameters were measured in 2524 generally healthy subjects from the Asklepios Study (35-55 years, mean age 46 years). Analyses were restricted to 2315 subjects (1138 women and 1177 men), not using thyroid medication, not having anti-TPO levels above clinical cutoff values or TSH levels outside the reference range (0.27-4.2 mU/L). Twenty-seven percent of the women and 47.5% of the men were overweight, while 13% of women and 17% of men were obese. Twenty percent of the subjects were active smokers. Serum thyroid function parameters were determined by electrochemiluminescence. fT3 and the fT3-to-fT4 ratio were positively related to body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and components of metabolic syndrome, that is, triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose, and negatively with HDL-cholesterol levels, whereas fT4 was negatively associated with BMI, waist circumference, and triglycerides (p<0.001). TSH related positively with total cholesterol levels (p<0.01), triglycerides, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p<0.001). The fT3-to-fT4 ratio was further positively associated with the adiposity-related inflammation markers interleukin-6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and to pulse wave velocity. All associations were adjusted for sex, age, height, and smoking, and most associations

A longitudinal study of DNA methylation as a potential mediator of age-related diabetes risk.

PubMed

Grant, Crystal D; Jafari, Nadereh; Hou, Lifang; Li, Yun; Stewart, James D; Zhang, Guosheng; Lamichhane, Archana; Manson, JoAnn E; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Whitsel, Eric A; Conneely, Karen N

2017-12-01

DNA methylation (DNAm) has been found to show robust and widespread age-related changes across the genome. DNAm profiles from whole blood can be used to predict human aging rates with great accuracy. We sought to test whether DNAm-based predictions of age are related to phenotypes associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with the goal of identifying risk factors potentially mediated by DNAm. Our participants were 43 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. We obtained methylation data via the Illumina 450K Methylation array on whole blood samples from participants at three timepoints, covering on average 16 years per participant. We employed the method and software of Horvath, which uses DNAm at 353 CpGs to form a DNAm-based estimate of chronological age. We then calculated the epigenetic age acceleration, or Δ age , at each timepoint. We fit linear mixed models to characterize how Δ age contributed to a longitudinal model of aging and diabetes-related phenotypes and risk factors. For most participants, Δ age remained constant, indicating that age acceleration is generally stable over time. We found that Δ age associated with body mass index (p = 0.0012), waist circumference (p = 0.033), and fasting glucose (p = 0.0073), with the relationship with BMI maintaining significance after correction for multiple testing. Replication in a larger cohort of 157 WHI participants spanning 3 years was unsuccessful, possibly due to the shorter time frame covered. Our results suggest that DNAm has the potential to act as a mediator between aging and diabetes-related phenotypes, or alternatively, may serve as a biomarker of these phenotypes.

Cumulative Lead Exposure and Age-related Hearing Loss: The VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Park, Sung Kyun; Elmarsafawy, Sahar; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Nie, Huiling; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

2010-01-01

Although lead has been associated with hearing loss in occupational settings and in children, little epidemiologic research has been conducted on the impact of cumulative lead exposure on age-related hearing loss in the general population. We determined whether bone lead levels, a marker of cumulative lead exposure, are associated with decreased hearing ability in 448 men from the Normative Aging Study, seen between 1962 and 1996 (2,264 total observations). Air conduction hearing thresholds were measured at 0.25 to 8 kHz and pure tone averages (PTA) (mean of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz) were computed. Tibia and patella lead levels were measured using K x-ray fluorescence between 1991 and 1996. In cross-sectional analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders including occupational noise, patella lead levels were significantly associated with poorer hearing thresholds at 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 kHz and PTA. The odds of hearing loss significantly increased with patella lead levels. We also found significant positive associations between tibia lead and the rate change in hearing thresholds at 1, 2, and 8 kHz and PTA in longitudinal analyses. Our results suggest that chronic low-level lead exposure may be an important risk factor for age-related hearing loss and reduction of lead exposure could help prevent or delay development of age-related hearing loss. PMID:20638461

Birthweight below the tenth percentile: the relative and attributable risks of maternal tobacco consumption and other factors.

PubMed

Morrison, J; Williams, G M; Najman, J M; Andersen, M J; Keeping, J D

1993-10-01

Analysis of 7776 singleton births defined a cohort of babies with birthweight below the 10th percentile after adjusting for gestational age and sex. The relative risk of a baby being small for gestational age in respect to a number of factors, such as parental anthropometry, demographic factors, behavior patterns (tobacco, cannabis, alcohol, and caffeine consumption), maternal pathology, and fetal abnormality, was calculated. The highest relative risks are associated with severe antepartum hemorrhage, severe pre-eclampsia, and severe fetal abnormality. As these are relatively rare events, a more accurate calculation of overall risk to the population as opposed to the individual can be obtained by studying the percent attributable risk of each of the factors. This demonstrates that maternal tobacco consumption is the major environmental risk factor in our population.

Impact of age on the importance of systolic and diastolic blood pressures for stroke risk: the MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project.

PubMed

Vishram, Julie K K; Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Ibsen, Hans; Jørgensen, Torben; Broda, Grazyna; Palmieri, Luigi; Giampaoli, Simona; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Kee, Frank; Mancia, Giuseppe; Cesana, Giancarlo; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Sans, Susana; Olsen, Michael H

2012-11-01

This study investigates age-related shifts in the relative importance of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressures as predictors of stroke and whether these relations are influenced by other cardiovascular risk factors. Using 34 European cohorts from the MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project with baseline between 1982 and 1997, 68 551 subjects aged 19 to 78 years, without cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive treatment, were included. During a mean of 13.2 years of follow-up, stroke incidence was 2.8%. Stroke risk was analyzed using hazard ratios per 10-mm Hg/5-mm Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, DBP was analyzed separately for DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg and DBP <71 mm Hg. Stroke risk was associated positively with SBP and DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg (SBP/DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg; hazard ratios: 1.15/1.06 [95% CI: 1.12-1.18/1.03-1.09]) and negatively with DBP <71 mm Hg (0.88[0.79-0.98]). The hazard ratio for DBP decreased with age (P<0.001) and was not influenced by other cardiovascular risk factors. Taking into account the age × DBP interaction, both SBP and DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg were significantly associated with stroke risk until age 62 years, but in subjects older than 46 years the superiority of SBP for stroke risk exceeded that of DBP ≥ 71 mm Hg and remained significant until age 78 years. DBP <71 mm Hg became significant at age 50 years with an inverse relation to stroke risk. In Europeans, stroke risk should be assessed by both SBP and DBP until age 62 years with increased focus on SBP from age 47 years. From age 62 years, emphasis should be on SBP without neglecting the potential harm of very low DBP.

Why people do what they do to protect against earthquake risk: perceptions of hazard adjustment attributes.

PubMed

Lindell, Michael K; Arlikatti, Sudha; Prater, Carla S

2009-08-01

This study examined respondents' self-reported adoption of 16 hazard adjustments (preimpact actions to reduce danger to persons and property), their perceptions of those adjustments' attributes, and the correlations of those perceived attributes with respondents' demographic characteristics. The sample comprised 561 randomly selected residents from three cities in Southern California prone to high seismic risk and three cities from Western Washington prone to moderate seismic risks. The results show that the hazard adjustment perceptions were defined by hazard-related attributes and resource-related attributes. More significantly, the respondents had a significant degree of consensus in their ratings of those attributes and used them to differentiate among the hazard adjustments, as indicated by statistically significant differences among the hazard adjustment profiles. Finally, there were many significant correlations between respondents' demographic characteristics and the perceived characteristics of hazard adjustments, but there were few consistent patterns among these correlations.

Age- and Sex-Related Influences on Left Ventricular Mechanics in Elderly Individuals Free of Prevalent Heart Failure: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).

PubMed

Hung, Chung-Lieh; Gonçalves, Alexandra; Shah, Amil M; Cheng, Susan; Kitzman, Dalane; Solomon, Scott D

2017-01-01

Advanced age is related to left ventricular (LV) remodeling. We sought to investigate the relationships between aging, elevated hemodynamic load, cardiac mechanics, and LV remodeling in an elderly community-based population. We studied 1105 subjects (76±5 years, 61% women) without prevalent heart failure, who attended the visit 5 of the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). LV global longitudinal strain, global circumferential strain, and torsion indices were analyzed using 3-dimensional echocardiography. Advanced age was associated with greater LV concentricity, lower myocardial diastolic relaxation, reduced global longitudinal strain (adjusted estimate, 0.39±0.19% (SE)/decade; P=0.038), borderline greater global circumferential strain (adjusted estimate, -0.59±0.36% (SE)/decade; P=0.08), and higher torsion indices (adjusted estimate for torsion, 0.33±0.04° (SE)/decade; P<0.001). In addition, greater concentricity was associated with decreased global longitudinal strain and greater torsion in multivariable models (all P<0.001). Women showed smaller LV cavity size, greater concentricity, lower myocardial relaxation velocity E', though demonstrated greater global longitudinal strain, global circumferential strain, and torsion than men (all P<0.05). Overall, subjects with hypertension and increasing age were more likely to have higher torsion, though the association between advanced age and greater torsion was more pronounced in women than in men (both interaction P<0.05). In an asymptomatic, senescent community-dwelling population, we observed a distinct, sex-specific pattern of cardiac remodeling. Although we observed worse diastolic and longitudinal function with advanced age or elevated load in both sexes, a significant increase of torsion was more pronounced in women. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction: impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment on cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Melnikow, Joy; Birch, Stephen; Slee, Christina; McCarthy, Theodore J; Helms, L Jay; Kuppermann, Miriam

2008-09-01

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the effects of health-care interventions on multiple health dimensions typically require consideration of both quantity and quality of life. To explore the impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment using patient preferences (utilities) on the outcome of a CEA on use of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. A state transition Markov model tracked hypothetical cohorts of women who did or did not take 5 years of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. Incremental quality-adjusted effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for models including and excluding a utility adjustment for menopausal symptoms were compared with each other and to a global utility model. Two hundred fifty-five women aged 50 and over with estimated 5-year breast cancer risk >or=1.67% participated in utility assessment interviews. Standard gamble utilities were assessed for specified tamoxifen-related health outcomes, current health, and for a global assessment of possible outcomes of tamoxifen use. Inclusion of a utility for menopausal symptoms in the outcome-specific models substantially increased the ICER; at the threshold 5-year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, tamoxifen was dominated. When a global utility for tamoxifen was used in place of outcome-specific utilities, tamoxifen was dominated under all circumstances. CEAs may be profoundly affected by the types of outcomes considered for quality-of-life adjustment and how these outcomes are grouped for utility assessment. Comparisons of ICERs across analyses must consider effects of different approaches to using utilities for quality-of-life adjustment.

Statistical analyses of the relative risk.

PubMed Central

Gart, J J

1979-01-01

Let P1 be the probability of a disease in one population and P2 be the probability of a disease in a second population. The ratio of these quantities, R = P1/P2, is termed the relative risk. We consider first the analyses of the relative risk from retrospective studies. The relation between the relative risk and the odds ratio (or cross-product ratio) is developed. The odds ratio can be considered a parameter of an exponential model possessing sufficient statistics. This permits the development of exact significance tests and confidence intervals in the conditional space. Unconditional tests and intervals are also considered briefly. The consequences of misclassification errors and ignoring matching or stratifying are also considered. The various methods are extended to combination of results over the strata. Examples of case-control studies testing the association between HL-A frequencies and cancer illustrate the techniques. The parallel analyses of prospective studies are given. If P1 and P2 are small with large samples sizes the appropriate model is a Poisson distribution. This yields a exponential model with sufficient statistics. Exact conditional tests and confidence intervals can then be developed. Here we consider the case where two populations are compared adjusting for sex differences as well as for the strata (or covariate) differences such as age. The methods are applied to two examples: (1) testing in the two sexes the ratio of relative risks of skin cancer in people living in different latitudes, and (2) testing over time the ratio of the relative risks of cancer in two cities, one of which fluoridated its drinking water and one which did not. PMID:540589

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

45 CFR 153.350 - Risk adjustment data validation standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment data validation standards. 153.350... validation standards. (a) General requirement. The State, or HHS on behalf of the State, must ensure proper implementation of any risk adjustment software and ensure proper validation of a statistically valid sample of...

Age-Adjusted Percentage of Adults Aged 18 Years or Older with Diagnosed Diabetes Performing Daily Self-Monitoring of ...

MedlinePlus

... Share Compartir Age-Adjusted Percentage of Adults Aged 18 Years or Older with Diagnosed Diabetes Performing Daily ... 2010, the age-adjusted percentage of adults aged 18 years or older with diagnosed diabetes performing daily ...

Refractive Error and the Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the South Korean Population.

PubMed

Lin, Shuai-Chun; Singh, Kuldev; Chao, Daniel L; Lin, Shan C

2016-01-01

We investigated the association between refractive error and the prevalence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a population-based study. This was a cross-sectional study. Right eyes were included from 14,067 participants aged 40 years and older with gradable fundus photographs and refraction data from the fourth and the fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2008 to 2011. Early and late AMD was graded based on the International Age-Related Maculopathy Epidemiological Study Group grading system. Autorefraction data were collected to calculate spherical equivalent refraction in diopters (D) and classified into 4 groups: hyperopia (≥1.0 D), emmetropia (-0.99 to 0.99 D), mild myopia (-1.0 to -2.99 D), and moderate to high myopia (≤-3.0 D). After adjustment for potential confounders, each diopter increase in spherical equivalent was associated with a 16% [odds ratio (OR), 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-1.25] and 18% (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10-1.27) increased risk of any (early + late) and early AMD, respectively. Mild and moderate to high myopia were associated with lower odds of any and early AMD compared with hyperopia (any AMD: OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.4-0.95 for mild myopia; OR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.21-0.81 for moderate to high myopia; early AMD: OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.4-0.99 for mild myopia; OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.16-0.77 for moderate to high myopia group). There was no association between refractive status and the likelihood of late AMD (P = 0.91). Myopia is associated with lower odds of any and early AMD, but not with late AMD in the South Korean population.

Frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between second-hand smoke exposure and menopausal symptoms among middle-aged women in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Ye, X; Yao, Z; Xu, Y; Zhou, S; Gao, Y; Chen, S; Yang, Y

2015-04-01

Tobacco smoking and menopausal symptoms are strongly associated, but the possible effects of second-hand smoke (SHS) have not been evaluated. This study aimed to explore the possible frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms among non-smoking, middle-aged women. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guangzhou, China using a stratified three-stage sampling method. Menopausal symptoms were measured by the modified Kupperman Index with a cut-off point of 7. The frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms were examined using logistic regression models. Compared with non-exposure, SHS exposure was associated with increased menopausal symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-2.33 for exposure in any of the venues). The trend analysis showed that there were frequency-risk (OR = 1.43 for occasional exposure; OR = 2.30 for regular exposure; p for linear trend < 0.001) and duration-risk (OR = 1.09 for 1-15 years; OR = 1.99 for > 15 years; p for linear trend < 0.001) relations. When examining the frequency-risk and duration-risk relations by source of exposure (in homes or in workplaces), there was still evidence of increasing trend for risk of menopausal symptoms. Findings from the present study suggest that SHS exposure is positively associated with menopausal symptoms in middle-aged women in a dose-response manner and highlight the need for further research to establish the mechanisms of the association.

Age-related macular degeneration in Portugal: prevalence and risk factors in a coastal and an inland town. The Coimbra Eye Study - Report 2.

PubMed

Cachulo, Maria da Luz; Laíns, Inês; Lobo, Conceição; Figueira, João; Ribeiro, Luísa; Marques, João P; Costa, José; Vieira, António; Rodrigues, João; Alves, Dalila; Nunes, Sandrina; Costa, Miguel; Rodrigues, Victor; Cunha-Vaz, José; Delcourt, Cecile; Silva, Rufino

2016-09-01

To determine the age- and sex-specific prevalence of early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in two Portuguese population-based samples and to identify its risk factors. A population of 6023 adults aged ≥55 years was recruited from two Portuguese primary healthcare units in the central region of Portugal - one from a coastal (n = 3000) and another from an inland town (n = 3023). Cross-sectional population-based study. Participants were enrolled in the two locations between August 2009 and October 2013. Responders underwent standardized interviews and ophthalmologic examination, including digital fundus imaging. All fundus photographs were graded according to an International Classification and Grading System. The main outcome measures consisted of age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of early and late AMD. Potential epidemiologic risk factors were also evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Of the 6023 subjects enrolled, 5996 had gradable fundus images and were included in the analysis. The crude prevalence of early and late AMD was 6.99 and 0.67%, respectively, for the coastal town and 15.39 and 1.29% for the inland town. Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of any AMD for the Portuguese population was 12.48% (95% CI: 11.61-13.33) with late AMD accounting for 1.16% (95% CI: 0.85-1.46). Neovascular AMD (NV-AMD) and geographic atrophy (GA) accounted for 0.55% (95% CI: 0.36-0.75) and 0.61% (95% CI: 0.37-0.84) of individuals, respectively. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, prevalence of early and late AMD increased with increasing age (OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.23-1.49 for early and OR = 3.01; 95% CI: 2.22-4.08 for late AMD, per each decade of age increase, p < 0.001). After adjustment for age, sex, family history, smoking history, hypertension, diabetes and BMI, subjects from the inland town presented a significantly higher OR of early and late AMD than subjects from the coastal town (OR = 2.57, 95% CI: 2.12-3.12, p < 0

Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors.

PubMed

Ramin, Cody; Devore, Elizabeth E; Wang, Weike; Pierre-Paul, Jeffrey; Wegrzyn, Lani R; Schernhammer, Eva S

2015-02-01

We examined the association of night shift work history and age when night shift work was performed with cancer and cardiovascular disease risk factors among 54 724 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) II. We calculated age-adjusted and socioeconomic status-adjusted means and percentages for cancer and cardiovascular risk factors in 2009 across categories of night shift work history. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for key risk factors among 54 724 participants (72% ever shift workers). We further examined these associations by age (20-25, 26-35, 36-45 and 46+ years) at which shift work was performed. Ever night shift workers had increased odds of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2); OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.43); higher caffeine intake (≥131 mg/day; OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22) and total calorie intake (≥1715 kcal/day; OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13); current smoking (OR=1.30, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.42); and shorter sleep durations (≤7 h of sleep/day; OR=1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.24) compared to never night shift workers. These estimates varied depending on age at which night work was performed, with a suggestion that night shift work before age 25 was associated with fewer risk factors compared to night shift work at older ages. Our results indicate that night shift work may contribute to an adverse chronic disease risk profile, and that risk factors may vary depending on the age at which night shift work was performed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

EPHA2 Polymorphisms in Estonian Patients with Age-Related Cataract.

PubMed

Celojevic, Dragana; Abramsson, Alexandra; Seibt Palmér, Mona; Tasa, Gunnar; Juronen, Erkki; Zetterberg, Henrik; Zetterberg, Madeleine

2016-01-01

Ephrin receptors (Ephs) are tyrosine kinases that together with their ligands, ephrins, are considered important in cell-cell communication, especially during embryogenesis but also for epithelium homeostasis. Studies have demonstrated the involvement of mutations or common variants of the gene encoding Eph receptor A2 (EPHA2), in congenital cataract and in age-related cataract. This study investigated a number of disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in EPHA2 in patients with age-related cataract. The study included 491 Estonian patients who had surgery for age-related cataract, classified as nuclear, cortical, posterior subcapsular and mixed lens opacities, and 185 controls of the same ethnical origin. Seven SNPs in EPHA2 (rs7543472, rs11260867, rs7548209, rs3768293, rs6603867, rs6678616, rs477558) were genotyped using TaqMan Allelic Discrimination. Statistical analyses for single factor associations used χ(2)-test and logistic regression was performed including relevant covariates (age, sex and smoking). In single-SNP allele analysis, only the rs7543472 showed a borderline significant association with risk of cataract (p = 0.048). Regression analysis with known risk factors for cataract showed no significant associations of the studied SNPs with cataract. Stratification by cataract subtype did not alter the results. Adjusted odds ratios were between 0.82 and 1.16 (95% confidence interval 0.61-1.60). The present study does not support a major role of EphA2 in cataractogenesis in an Estonian population.

Potential host-related risk factors for recurrent urinary tract infection in Saudi women of childbearing age.

PubMed

Ahmed, Abul-Fotouh Abdel-Maguid; Solyman, Awatif Abdel-Karim; Kamal, Sanaa Moharram

2016-08-01

Risk factors for recurrent urinary tract infection (rUTI) in women may differ between individuals, age, and the community. This study aimed to evaluate host related risk factors for rUTI in sexually active Saudi women during the childbearing period. A case-control study was conducted in five healthcare centers and included married, nonpregnant women aged 18-40 years. A total of 217 women had rUTI (cases) and 252 did not (controls). A validated questionnaire, with a face-to-face interview, was applied to assess various demographic, behavioral, medical, and sexual data. Additionally, a thorough physical examination, saliva and blood analyses, uroflowmetry, and genitourinary ultrasonography were performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the significant host related risk factors associated with rUTI. In multivariate analysis, attributable risks for rUTI were a history of childhood UTI [odds ratio (OR) = 6.8)] back-to-front douching/wiping after bowel movement (OR = 2.6), younger age at first intercourse (OR = 6.3), increased frequency of sexual intercourse (OR = 4.8), obstructed urinary flow (OR = 1.9), and genital prolapse (OR = 3.4). A total of 9.68 % of cases and none of the controls had high postvoid residual urine (positive predictive value for rUTI = 100 %). This is the first reported study to evaluate host related risk factors for rUTI in childbearing-age women in Saudi Arabia. Study findings indicate the association between rUTI and various factors that have been already established, with addition of improper rectal hygiene as a potential risk for recurrence.

Survival Bias When Assessing Risk Factors for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Tutorial with Application to the Exposure of Smoking.

PubMed

McGuinness, Myra B; Karahalios, Amalia; Kasza, Jessica; Guymer, Robyn H; Finger, Robert P; Simpson, Julie A

2017-08-01

We illustrate the effect of survival bias when investigating risk factors for eye disease in elderly populations for whom death is a competing risk. Our investigation focuses on the relationship between smoking and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in an observational study impacted by censoring due to death. Statistical methodology to calculate the survivor average causal effect (SACE) as a sensitivity analysis is described, including example statistical computing code for Stata and R. To demonstrate this method, we examine the causal effect of smoking history at baseline (1990-1994) on the presence of late AMD at the third study wave (2003-2007) using data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Of the 40,506 participants eligible for inclusion, 38,092 (94%) survived until the start of the third study wave, 20,752 (51%) were graded for AMD (60% female, aged 47-85 years, mean 65 ± 8.7 years). Late AMD was detected in 122 participants. Logistic regression showed strong evidence of an increased risk of late AMD for current smokers compared to non-smokers (adjusted naïve odds ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.74-5.13). Among participants expected to be alive at the start of follow-up regardless of their smoking status, the estimated SACE odds ratio comparing current smokers to non-smokers was at least 3.42 (95% CI 1.57-5.15). Survival bias can attenuate associations between harmful exposures and diseases of aging. Estimation of the SACE using a sensitivity analysis approach should be considered when conducting epidemiological research within elderly populations.

Parental reactions to children's negative emotions: prospective relations to Chinese children's psychological adjustment.

PubMed

Tao, Annie; Zhou, Qing; Wang, Yun

2010-04-01

The prospective relations between five types of parental reactions to children's negative emotions (PRCNE) and children's psychological adjustment (behavioral problems and social competence) were examined in a two-wave longitudinal study of 425 school-age children in China. Parents (mostly mothers) reported their own PRCNE. Parents, teachers, and children or peers reported on children's adjustment. Parental punitive reactions positively predicted externalizing problems (controlling for baseline), whereas emotion- and problem-focused reactions were negatively related to internalizing problems. Parental minimizing and encouragement of emotion expression were unrelated to adjustment. Concurrent relations were found between PRCNE and parents' authoritative and authoritarian parenting dimensions. However, PRCNE did not uniquely predict adjustment controlling for global parenting dimensions. The findings have implications for cultural adaptation of parent-focused interventions for families of Chinese origin. 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Risk Adjustment, Reinsurance Improved Financial Outcomes For Individual Market Insurers With The Highest Claims.

PubMed

Jacobs, Paul D; Cohen, Michael L; Keenan, Patricia

2017-04-01

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) reformed the individual health insurance market. Because insurers can no longer vary their offers of coverage based on applicants' health status, the ACA established a risk adjustment program to equalize health-related cost differences across plans. The ACA also established a temporary reinsurance program to subsidize high-cost claims. To assess the impact of these programs, we compared revenues to claims costs for insurers in the individual market during the first two years of ACA implementation (2014 and 2015), before and after the inclusion of risk adjustment and reinsurance payments. Before these payments were included, for the 30 percent of insurers with the highest claims costs, claims (not including administrative expenses) exceeded premium revenues by $90-$397 per enrollee per month. The effect was reversed after these payments were included, with revenues exceeding claims costs by $0-$49 per month. The risk adjustment and reinsurance programs were relatively well targeted in the first two years. While there is ongoing discussion regarding the future of the ACA, our findings can shed light on how risk-sharing programs can address risk selection among insurers-a pervasive issue in all health insurance markets. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Risk Adjustment and Primary Health Care in Chile

PubMed Central

Vargas, Veronica; Wasem, Juergen

2006-01-01

Aim To offer a capitation formula with greater capacity for guiding resource spending on population with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status in the context of financing and equity in primary health care. Methods We collected two years of data on a sample of 10 000 individuals from a region in Chile, Valdivia and Temuco and evaluated three models to estimate utilization and expenditures per capita. The first model included age and sex; the second one included age, sex, and the presence of two key diagnoses; and the third model included age, sex, and the presence of seven key diagnoses. Regression results were evaluated by R2 and predictive ratios to select the best specifications. Results Per-capita expenditures by age and sex confirmed international trends, where children under five, women, and the elderly were the main users of primary health care services. Women sought health advice twice as much as men. Clear differences by socioeconomic status were observed for the indigent population aged ≥65 years who under-utilized primary health care services. From the three models, major improvement in the predictive power occurred from the demographic (adjusted R2, 9%) to the demographic plus two diagnoses model (adjusted R2, 27%). Improvements were modest when five other diagnoses were added (adjusted R2, 28%). Conclusion The current formula that uses municipality’s financial power and geographic location of health centers to adjust capitation payments provides little incentive to appropriate care for the indigent and people with chronic conditions. A capitation payment that adjusts for age, sex, and the presence of diabetes and hypertension will better guide resource allocation to those with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status. PMID:16758525

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Woodall, William H

2015-11-10

The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, the use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to a quite variable in-control average run length performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, we determine simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, our risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Our simulation results demonstrate that our method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. Methods A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR) and/or relative risk (RR) outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Conclusions Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD. PMID:21144031

Advanced paternal age increases the risk of schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive disorder in a Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Wu, Yuejing; Liu, Xiang; Luo, Hongrong; Deng, Wei; Zhao, Gaofeng; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Lan; Ma, Xiaohong; Liu, Xiehe; Murray, Robin A; Collier, David A; Li, Tao

2012-08-15

Using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, patient and non-patient version (SCID-P/NP), this study investigated 351 patients with schizophrenia, 122 with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and 238 unrelated healthy volunteers in a Chinese Han population. The relative risks posed by advanced paternal age for schizophrenia and OCD in offspring were computed under logistic regression analyses and adjusted for the participant's sex, age and co-parent age at birth. Compared to the offspring with paternal age of 25-29 years old, the relative risks rose from 2.660 to 10.183 in the paternal age range of 30-34 and ≥35. The relative risks for OCD increased from 2.225 to 5.413 in 30-34 and ≥35. For offspring with paternal age of <25, the odds ratios of developing schizophrenia and OCD were 0.628 and 0.289 respectively, whereas an association between increased maternal age and risk for schizophrenia/OCD was not seen. Interaction analysis showed an interaction effect between paternal age and maternal age at birth. Such a tendency of risk affected by parental age for schizophrenia and OCD existed after splitting out the data of early onset patients. Sex-specific analyses found that the relative risks for schizophrenia with paternal age of 30-34 and ≥35 in male offspring were 2.407 and 10.893, and in female offspring were 3.080 and 9.659. The relative risks for OCD with paternal age of 30-34 and ≥35 in male offspring were 3.493 and 7.373, and in female offspring 2.005 and 4.404. The mean paternal age of schizophrenia/OCD patients born before the early 1980s was much greater than that of patients who were born after then. The findings illustrated that advanced paternal age is associated with increased risk for both schizophrenia and OCD in a Chinese Han population, prominently when paternal age is over 35. Biological and non-biological mechanisms may both be involved in the effects of advanced paternal age on schizophrenia and OCD. Copyright © 2012. Published

RISK FACTORS AND CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF PRECHOROIDAL CLEFT IN NEOVASCULAR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION.

PubMed

Kim, Jong Min; Kang, Se Woong; Son, Dae Yong; Bae, Kunho

2017-11-01

To investigate the risk factors associated with prechoroidal cleft occurrence after treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) and to elucidate its clinical significance. Two hundred thirty-four subjects who were treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration were assessed to identify prechoroidal cleft on optical coherence tomography. Clinical variables were compared between patients manifesting a cleft (cleft group) and patients who did not (control group). Prechoroidal cleft was detected in 29 of 234 patients (8.1%). Although the baseline visual acuity was not different between the 2 groups, logMAR visual acuity at final visit was 0.89 ± 0.74 (with approximate Snellen equivalent of 20/160) in the cleft group and 0.65 ± 0.69 (with approximate Snellen equivalent of 20/100) in controls (P < 0.05). Within cleft group, the early-onset (<6 months) subgroup had even worse visual outcomes than the late-onset subgroup (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that the incidence of prechoroidal cleft was positively correlated with having received intravitreal gas injection to displace a submacular hemorrhage and a diagnosis of retinal angiomatous proliferation and typical neovascular age-related macular degeneration (P < 0.05). Diagnosis of retinal angiomatous proliferation and typical neovascular age-related macular degeneration, and a submacular hemorrhage treated by pneumatic displacement were the independent risk factors for development of prechoroidal cleft. Eyes with a cleft, especially clefts that develop early, generally had worse prognoses than eyes without clefts.

Association of vitamin C with the risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wei, Lin; Liang, Ge; Cai, Chunmei; Lv, Jin

2016-05-01

Whether vitamin C is a protective factor for age-related cataract remains unclear. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of vitamin C and the risk of age-related cataract. Pertinent studies were identified by searching in PubMed and in Webscience. The random effect model was used to combine the results. Meta-regression and subgroups analyses were used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's regression asymmetry test. Finally, 15 articles with 20 studies for vitamin C intake and eight articles with 10 studies for serum ascorbate were included in this meta-analysis. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval of cataract for the highest versus the lowest category of vitamin C intake was 0.814 (0.707-0.938), and the associations were significant in America and Asia. Significant association of cataract risk with highest versus the lowest category of serum ascorbate was found in general [0.704 (0.564-0.879)]. Inverse associations were also found between serum ascorbate and nuclear cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract. Higher vitamin C intake and serum ascorbate might be inversely associated with risk of cataract. Vitamin C intake should be advocated for the primary prevention of cataract. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Opposite differential risks for autism and schizophrenia based on maternal age, paternal age, and parental age differences

PubMed Central

Boomsma, Jacobus J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background and objectives: Effects of maternal and paternal age on offspring autism and schizophrenia risks have been studied for over three decades, but inconsistent risks have often been found, precluding well-informed speculation on why these age-related risks might exist. Methodology: To help clarify this situation we analysed a massive single population sample from Denmark including the full spectrum of autistic and schizophrenic disorders (eliminating between-study confounding), used up to 30 follow-up years, controlled for over 20 potentially confounding factors and interpret the ultimate causation of the observed risk patterns using generally accepted principles of parent-offspring conflict and life-history theory. Results: We evaluated the effects of paternal age, maternal age and parental age difference on offspring mental disorders and found consistently similar risk patterns for related disorders and markedly different patterns between autistic and schizophrenic disorders. Older fathers and mothers both conferred increased risk for autistic but not schizophrenic disorders, but autism risk was reduced in younger parents and offspring of younger mothers had increased risk for many schizophrenic disorders. Risk for most disorders also increased when parents were more dissimilarly aged. Monotonically increasing autism risk is consistent with mutation accumulation as fathers’ age, but this explanation is invalid for schizophrenic disorders, which were not related to paternal age and were negatively correlated with maternal age. Conclusions and implications: We propose that the observed maternally induced risk patterns ultimately reflect a shifting ancestral life-history trade-off between current and future reproduction, mediated by an initially high but subsequently decreasing tendency to constrain foetal provisioning as women proceed from first to final pregnancy. PMID:27637201

Psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in old age: a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Nurminen, Janne; Puustinen, Juha; Piirtola, Maarit; Vahlberg, Tero; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa

2010-07-06

There is evidence that the use of any psychotropic and the concomitant use of two or more benzodiazepines are related to an increased risk of fractures in old age. However, also controversial results exist. The aim was to describe associations between the use of a psychotropic drug, or the concomitant use of two or more of these drugs and the risk of fractures in a population aged 65 years or over. This study was a part of a prospective longitudinal population-based study carried out in the municipality of Lieto, South-Western Finland. The objective was to describe gender-specific associations between the use of one psychotropic drug [benzodiazepine (BZD), antipsychotic (AP) or antidepressant (AD)] or the concomitant use of two or more psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in a population 65 years or over. Subjects were participants in the first wave of the Lieto study in 1990-1991, and they were followed up until the end of 1996. Information about fractures confirmed with radiology reports in 1,177 subjects (482 men and 695 women) during the follow-up was collected from medical records. Two follow-up periods (three and six years) were used, and previously found risk factors of fractures were adjusted as confounding factors separately for men and women. The Poisson regression model was used in the analyses. The concomitant use of two or more BZDs and the concomitant use of two or more APs were related to an increased risk of fractures during both follow-up periods after adjusting for confounding factors in men. No similar associations were found in women. The concomitant use of several BZDs and that of several APs are associated with an increase in the risk of fractures in older men. Our findings show only risk relations. We cannot draw the conclusion that these drug combinations are causes of fractures.

Midlife Work-Related Stress Increases Dementia Risk in Later Life: The CAIDE 30-Year Study.

PubMed

Sindi, Shireen; Hagman, Göran; Håkansson, Krister; Kulmala, Jenni; Nilsen, Charlotta; Kåreholt, Ingemar; Soininen, Hilkka; Solomon, Alina; Kivipelto, Miia

2017-10-01

To investigate the associations between midlife work-related stress and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), dementia, and Alzheimer's disease later in life, in a large representative population. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study participants were randomly selected from independent population-based surveys (mean age 50 years). A random sample of 2,000 individuals was invited for two reexaminations including cognitive tests (at mean age 71 and mean age 78), and 1,511 subjects participated in at least one reexamination (mean follow-up 28.5 years). Work-related stress was measured using two questions on work demands that were administered in midlife. Analyses adjusted for important confounders. Higher levels of midlife work-related stress were associated with higher risk of MCI (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.76), dementia (OR, 1.53; CI, 1.13-2.07), and Alzheimer's disease (OR, 1.55; CI, 1.19-2.36) at the first follow-up among the CAIDE participants. Results remained significant after adjusting for several possible confounders. Work-related stress was not associated with MCI and dementia during the extended follow-up. Midlife work-related stress increases the risk for MCI, dementia, and Alzheimer's disease in later life. The association was not seen after the extended follow-up possibly reflecting selective survival/participation, heterogeneity in dementia among the oldest old, and a critical time window for the effects of midlife stress. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Natural history of age-related lobular involution and impact on breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Radisky, Derek C; Visscher, Daniel W; Frank, Ryan D; Vierkant, Robert A; Winham, Stacey; Stallings-Mann, Melody; Hoskin, Tanya L; Nassar, Aziza; Vachon, Celine M; Denison, Lori A; Hartmann, Lynn C; Frost, Marlene H; Degnim, Amy C

2016-02-01

Age-related lobular involution (LI) is a physiological process in which the terminal duct lobular units of the breast regress as a woman ages. Analyses of breast biopsies from women with benign breast disease (BBD) have found that extent of LI is negatively associated with subsequent breast cancer development. Here we assess the natural course of LI within individual women, and the impact of progressive LI on breast cancer risk. The Mayo Clinic BBD cohort consists of 13,455 women with BBD from 1967 to 2001. The BBD cohort includes 1115 women who had multiple benign biopsies, 106 of whom had developed breast cancer. Within this multiple biopsy cohort, the progression of the LI process was examined by age at initial biopsy and time between biopsies. The relationship between LI progression and breast cancer risk was assessed using standardized incidence ratios and by Cox proportional hazards analysis. Women who had multiple biopsies were younger age and had a slightly higher family history of breast cancer as compared with the overall BBD cohort. Extent of LI at subsequent biopsy was greater with increasing time between biopsies and for women age 55 + at initial biopsy. Among women with multiple biopsies, there was a significant association of higher breast cancer risk among those with involution stasis (lack of progression, HR 1.63) as compared with those with involution progression, p = 0.036. The multiple biopsy BBD cohort allows for a longitudinal study of the natural progression of LI. The majority of women in the multiple biopsy cohort showed progression of LI status between benign biopsies, and extent of progression was highest for women who were in the perimenopausal age range at initial biopsy. Progression of LI status between initial and subsequent biopsy was associated with decreased breast cancer risk.

Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

PubMed

Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

2012-08-01

Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

Age at migration and future risk of psychotic disorders among immigrants in the Netherlands: a 7-year incidence study.

PubMed

Veling, Wim; Hoek, Hans W; Selten, Jean-Paul; Susser, Ezra

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the increased risk for developing a psychotic disorder among immigrants is related to their age at the time of migration. In a 7-year first-contact incidence study, immigrants to the Netherlands and Dutch citizens, ages 15-54 years, who made a first contact with a physician for a suspected psychotic disorder were identified. Diagnostic interviews were administered, and DSM-IV diagnoses were determined by consensus between two psychiatrists. A comprehensive municipal registration system provided the denominator, including information on ethnicity and age at the time of migration. Lower age at the time of migration was associated with a higher incidence of psychotic disorders among immigrants. People who migrated between the ages of 0 and 4 years had the most elevated risk for psychotic disorders compared with the risk among Dutch citizens (age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratio=2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.10-4.17), and the risk gradually decreased with older age at migration (adjusted incidence rate ratio for migration at 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and >29 years, respectively: 2.31 [CI=1.61-3.29], 1.51 [CI=1.02-2.25], and 1.00 [CI=0.58-1.72]). The adverse influence of migration on the risk for psychotic disorders is most prominent in early life, suggesting that this is an important period in the etiology of the illness.

Diminishing Risk for Age-Related Macular Degeneration with Nutrition: A Current View

PubMed Central

Schleicher, Molly; Weikel, Karen; Garber, Caren; Taylor, Allen

2013-01-01

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Clinical hallmarks of AMD are observed in one third of the elderly in industrialized countries. Preventative interventions through dietary modification are attractive strategies, because they are more affordable than clinical therapies, do not require specialists for administration and many studies suggest a benefit of micro- and macro-nutrients with respect to AMD with few, if any, adverse effects. The goal of this review is to provide information from recent literature on the value of various nutrients, particularly omega-3 fatty acids, lower glycemic index diets and, perhaps, some carotenoids, with regard to diminishing risk for onset or progression of AMD. Results from the upcoming Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) II intervention trial should be particularly informative. PMID:23820727

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

HIV-Related Sexual Risk among African American Men Preceding Incarceration: Associations with Support from Significant Others, Family, and Friends.

PubMed

Coatsworth, Ashley M; Scheidell, Joy D; Wohl, David A; Whitehead, Nicole E; Golin, Carol E; Judon-Monk, Selena; Khan, Maria R

2017-02-01

We evaluated the association between social support received from significant others, family, and friends and HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among African American men involved in the criminal justice system. Project DISRUPT is a cohort study among African American men released from prison in North Carolina (N = 189). During the baseline (in-prison) survey, we assessed the amount of support men perceived they had received from significant others, family, and friends. We measured associations between low support from each source (risk in the 6 months before incarceration. Low levels of social support from significant others, family, or friends were associated with poverty and homelessness, mental disorders, and substance use. Adjusting for age, poverty, and other sources of support, perceiving low support from significant others was strongly associated with multiple partnerships (fully adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-5.42). Low significant other support also was strongly associated with sex trade involvement when adjusting for age and poverty status (adjusted OR 3.51, 95% CI 1.25-9.85) but further adjustment for low family and friend support weakened the association (fully adjusted OR 2.81, 95% CI 0.92-8.55). Significant other support was not associated with other sex risk outcomes including concurrent partnerships, anal sex, or sex with an STI/HIV-infected partner. Low family support was associated with multiple partnerships in analyses adjusting for age and poverty (adjusted OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.05-3.76) but the association weakened and was no longer significant after adjusting for other sources of support (fully adjusted OR 1.40, 95% CI 0.65-3.00); family support was not correlated with other risk behaviors. Friend support was not significantly associated with sex risk outcomes. Indicators of overall support from any source were not associated with sex risk outcomes. Helping inmates

Risk adjustment for health care financing in chronic disease: what are we missing by failing to account for disease severity?

PubMed

Omachi, Theodore A; Gregorich, Steven E; Eisner, Mark D; Penaloza, Renee A; Tolstykh, Irina V; Yelin, Edward H; Iribarren, Carlos; Dudley, R Adams; Blanc, Paul D

2013-08-01

Adjustment for differing risks among patients is usually incorporated into newer payment approaches, and current risk models rely on age, sex, and diagnosis codes. It is unknown the extent to which controlling additionally for disease severity improves cost prediction. Failure to adjust for within-disease variation may create incentives to avoid sicker patients. We address this issue among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cost and clinical data were collected prospectively from 1202 COPD patients at Kaiser Permanente. Baseline analysis included age, sex, and diagnosis codes (using the Diagnostic Cost Group Relative Risk Score) in a general linear model predicting total medical costs in the following year. We determined whether adding COPD severity measures-forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 6-Minute Walk Test, dyspnea score, body mass index, and BODE Index (composite of the other 4 measures)-improved predictions. Separately, we examined household income as a cost predictor. Mean costs were $12,334/y. Controlling for Relative Risk Score, each ½ SD worsening in COPD severity factor was associated with $629 to $1135 in increased annual costs (all P<0.01). The lowest stratum of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (<30% normal) predicted $4098 (95% confidence interval, $576-$8773) additional costs. Household income predicted excess costs when added to the baseline model (P=0.038), but this became nonsignificant when also incorporating the BODE Index. Disease severity measures explain significant cost variations beyond current risk models, and adding them to such models appears important to fairly compensate organizations that accept responsibility for sicker COPD patients. Appropriately controlling for disease severity also accounts for costs otherwise associated with lower socioeconomic status.

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at older ages: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2016-08-01

Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Longitudinal cohort study of 1964 community-dwelling adults aged 65-79 years. The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% CI 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and gender. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Calculating summary statistics for population chemical biomonitoring in women of childbearing age with adjustment for age-specific natality.

PubMed

Axelrad, Daniel A; Cohen, Jonathan

2011-01-01

The effects of chemical exposures during pregnancy on children's health have been an increasing focus of environmental health research in recent years, leading to greater interest in biomonitoring of chemicals in women of childbearing age in the general population. Measurements of mercury in blood from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are frequently reported for "women of childbearing age," defined to be of ages 16-49 years. The intent is to represent prenatal chemical exposure, but blood mercury levels increase with age. Furthermore, women of different ages have different probabilities of giving birth. We evaluated options to address potential bias in biomonitoring summary statistics for women of childbearing age by accounting for age-specific probabilities of giving birth. We calculated median and 95th percentile levels of mercury, PCBs, and cotinine using these approaches: option 1: women aged 16-49 years without natality adjustment; option 2: women aged 16-39 years without natality adjustment; option 3: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age; option 4: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age and race/ethnicity. Among the three chemicals examined, the choice of option has the greatest impact on estimated levels of serum PCBs, which are strongly associated with age. Serum cotinine levels among Black non-Hispanic women of childbearing age are understated when age-specific natality is not considered. For characterizing in utero exposures, adjustment using age-specific natality provides a substantial improvement in estimation of biomonitoring summary statistics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learned Helplessness and Psychological Adjustment: Effects of Age, Gender and Academic Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valas, Harald

2001-01-01

Studied the relationships among academic achievement, learned helplessness, and psychological adjustment (self-esteem and depression), controlled for gender and age, for 1,580 students with data collected in grades 3 and 4, 6 and 7, and 8 and 9. Results show that academic achievement is directly and indirectly related to the pattern of…

Age at Natural Menopause and Risk of Ischemic Stroke: The Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Lisabeth, Lynda D; Beiser, Alexa S; Brown, Devin L; Murabito, Joanne M; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Wolf, Philip A

2009-01-01

Background Women have increased lifetime stroke risk and more disabling strokes compared with men. Insights into the association between menopause and stroke could lead to new prevention strategies for women. The objective of this study was to examine the association of age at natural menopause with ischemic stroke risk in the Framingham Heart Study. Methods Participants included women who survived stroke-free until age 60, experienced natural menopause, did not use estrogen prior to menopause, and who had complete data (n=1,430). Participants were followed until first ischemic stroke, death, or end of follow-up (2006). Age at natural menopause was self-reported. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between age at natural menopause (<42, 42-54, ≥55) and ischemic stroke risk adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, current smoking, cardiovascular disease and estrogen use. Results There were 234 ischemic strokes identified. Average age at menopause was 49 years (sd=4). Women with menopause at ages 42-54 (HR=0.50; 95% CI:0.29-0.89) and at ages ≥55 (HR=0.31; 95% CI:0.13-0.76) had lower stroke risk compared with those with menopause <42 years adjusted for covariates. Women with menopause before age 42 had twice the stroke risk compared to all other women (HR=2.03; 95% CI: 1.16-3.56). Conclusion In this prospective study, age at natural menopause before age 42 was associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. Future stroke studies with measures of endogenous hormones are needed to inform the underlying mechanisms so that novel prevention strategies for mid-life women can be considered. PMID:19233935

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

Association of urinary melatonin levels and aging-related outcomes in older men.

PubMed

Devore, Elizabeth E; Harrison, Stephanie L; Stone, Katie L; Holton, Kathleen F; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Ancoli-Israel, Sonia; Yaffe, Kristine; Ensrud, Kristine; Cawthon, Peggy M; Redline, Susan; Orwoll, Eric; Schernhammer, Eva S

2016-07-01

Circadian disruptions can contribute to accelerated aging, and the circadian system regulates cognitive and physical functions; therefore, circadian markers (eg, melatonin) may be associated with key aspects of healthy aging and longevity. To evaluate urinary melatonin levels in relation to cognitive function, physical function, and mortality among 2,821 older men in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study DESIGN: Cohort study. In 2003-2005, participants provided first-morning spot urine samples, which were assayed for 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (the primary melatonin metabolite in urine); cognitive and physical function assessments were completed twice, at baseline and an average of 6.5 years later. Participant deaths were confirmed by central review of death certificates over a mean of 9.2 years of follow up. In multivariable-adjusted regression models, we observed a significant trend of better Digit Vigilance Test scores (ie, decreased time to completion) at baseline across increasing melatonin quartiles (p-trend = 0.01); however, mean time-to-completion scores did not significantly differ comparing extreme quartiles (group means: 547.1 seconds (95% CI: 533.6, 560.6) versus 561.3 seconds (95% CI: 547.8, 574.9)), and there were no associations of urinary melatonin levels with other cognitive test scores, or any cognitive change scores over time. Furthermore, melatonin levels were not related to physical function scores (p-trends = 0.4 for walking speed, 0.7 for chair stands, and 0.6 for grip strength in fully-adjusted models) or mortality risk (p-trend = 0.3 in the fully-adjusted model). We found little evidence of associations between urinary melatonin levels and key measures of healthy aging and mortality in this cohort of older men. Further research should explore the relation of melatonin, particularly if assessed earlier in life, and other circadian markers with healthy aging outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in Shanghai

PubMed Central

Xu, W-H; Dai, Q; Xiang, Y-B; Zhao, G-M; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Ruan, Z-X; Cheng, J-R; Shu, X-O

2006-01-01

We evaluated animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in a population-based case–control study in Shanghai, China. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to collect the usual dietary habits of 1204 cases and 1212 controls aged 30–69 years between 1997 and 2003. Statistical analyses were based on an unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for potential confounders. High intake of meat and fish was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, with adjusted odds ratios for the highest vs the lowest quartile groups being 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.2) and 2.4 (1.8–3.1), respectively. The elevated risk was observed for all types of meat and fish intake. Intake of eggs and milk was not related to risk. Cooking methods and doneness levels for meat and fish were not associated with risk, nor did they modify the association with meat and fish consumption. Our study suggests that animal food consumption may play an important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer, but cooking methods have minimal influence on risk among Chinese women. PMID:17060930

Normal breast tissue DNA methylation differences at regulatory elements are associated with the cancer risk factor age.

PubMed

Johnson, Kevin C; Houseman, E Andres; King, Jessica E; Christensen, Brock C

2017-07-10

The underlying biological mechanisms through which epidemiologically defined breast cancer risk factors contribute to disease risk remain poorly understood. Identification of the molecular changes associated with cancer risk factors in normal tissues may aid in determining the earliest events of carcinogenesis and informing cancer prevention strategies. Here we investigated the impact cancer risk factors have on the normal breast epigenome by analyzing DNA methylation genome-wide (Infinium 450 K array) in cancer-free women from the Susan G. Komen Tissue Bank (n = 100). We tested the relation of established breast cancer risk factors, age, body mass index, parity, and family history of disease, with DNA methylation adjusting for potential variation in cell-type proportions. We identified 787 cytosine-guanine dinucleotide (CpG) sites that demonstrated significant associations (Q value <0.01) with subject age. Notably, DNA methylation was not strongly associated with the other evaluated breast cancer risk factors. Age-related DNA methylation changes are primarily increases in methylation enriched at breast epithelial cell enhancer regions (P = 7.1E-20), and binding sites of chromatin remodelers (MYC and CTCF). We validated the age-related associations in two independent populations, using normal breast tissue samples (n = 18) and samples of normal tissue adjacent to tumor tissue (n = 97). The genomic regions classified as age-related were more likely to be regions altered in both pre-invasive (n = 40, P = 3.0E-03) and invasive breast tumors (n = 731, P = 1.1E-13). DNA methylation changes with age occur at regulatory regions, and are further exacerbated in cancer, suggesting that age influences breast cancer risk in part through its contribution to epigenetic dysregulation in normal breast tissue.

Molecular inflammation: underpinnings of aging and age-related diseases.

PubMed

Chung, Hae Young; Cesari, Matteo; Anton, Stephen; Marzetti, Emanuele; Giovannini, Silvia; Seo, Arnold Young; Carter, Christy; Yu, Byung Pal; Leeuwenburgh, Christiaan

2009-01-01

Recent scientific studies have advanced the notion of chronic inflammation as a major risk factor underlying aging and age-related diseases. In this review, low-grade, unresolved, molecular inflammation is described as an underlying mechanism of aging and age-related diseases, which may serve as a bridge between normal aging and age-related pathological processes. Accumulated data strongly suggest that continuous (chronic) upregulation of pro-inflammatory mediators (e.g., TNF-alpha, IL-1beta, IL-6, COX-2, iNOS) are induced during the aging process due to an age-related redox imbalance that activates many pro-inflammatory signaling pathways, including the NF-kappaB signaling pathway. These pro-inflammatory molecular events are discussed in relation to their role as basic mechanisms underlying aging and age-related diseases. Further, the anti-inflammatory actions of aging-retarding caloric restriction and exercise are reviewed. Thus, the purpose of this review is to describe the molecular roles of age-related physiological functional declines and the accompanying chronic diseases associated with aging. This new view on the role of molecular inflammation as a mechanism of aging and age-related pathogenesis can provide insights into potential interventions that may affect the aging process and reduce age-related diseases, thereby promoting healthy longevity.

Molecular Inflammation: Underpinnings of Aging and Age-related Diseases

PubMed Central

Chung, Hae Young; Cesari, Matteo; Anton, Stephen; Marzetti, Emanuele; Giovannini, Silvia; Seo, Arnold Young; Carter, Christy; Yu, Byung Pal; Leeuwenburgh, Christiaan

2013-01-01

Recent scientific studies have advanced the notion of chronic inflammation as a major risk factor underlying aging and age-related diseases. In this review, low-grade, unresolved, molecular inflammation is described as an underlying mechanism of aging and age-related diseases, which may serve as a bridge between normal aging and age-related pathological processes. Accumulated data strongly suggest that continuous (chronic) up-regulation of pro-inflammatory mediators (e.g., TNF-α, IL-1β, 6, COX-2, iNOS) are induced during the aging process due to an age-related redox imbalance that activates many pro-inflammatory signaling pathways, including the NF-κB signaling pathway. These pro-inflammatory molecular events are discussed in relation to their role as basic mechanisms underlying aging and age-related diseases. Further, the anti-inflammatory actions of aging-retarding caloric restriction and exercise are reviewed. Thus, the purpose of this review is to describe the molecular roles of age-related physiological functional declines and the accompanying chronic diseases associated with aging. This new view on the role of molecular inflammation as a mechanism of aging and age-related pathogenesis can provide insights into potential interventions that may affect the aging process and reduce age-related diseases, thereby promoting healthy longevity. PMID:18692159

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed Central

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate. PMID:2269245

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-07-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate.

Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: <20 (n = 350, 11.9%), 20-39 (n = 254, 8.6%), 40-59 (n = 1860, 63.3%), and ≥60 (n = 474, 16.1%) years. In the total population, 428 deaths occurred after liver transplantation, and the median follow-up period was 2.85 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.5 years). Dialysis patients showed the highest risk of mortality irrespective of age. Further, the risk of death increased with an increase in the age at transplantation. Older liver transplant recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

Early Developmental and Psychosocial Risks and Longitudinal Behavioral Adjustment Outcomes for Preschool-Age Girls Adopted from China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Tony Xing; Marfo, Kofi; Dedrick, Robert F.

2010-01-01

The central goal of this longitudinal study was to examine behavioral adjustment outcomes in a sample of preschool-age adopted Chinese girls. Research examining the effects of institutional deprivation on post-adoption behavioral outcomes for internationally adopted children has been constrained by the frequent unavailability of data on the…

Children's Adjustment Following Divorce: Risk and Resilience Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Joan B.; Emery, Robert E.

2003-01-01

Reviews the empirical literature on the longer-term adjustment of children of divorce from the perspective of (a) the stressors and elevated risks that divorce presents for children and (b) protective factors associated with better adjustment. The resiliency demonstrated by the majority of children is discussed, as are controversies regarding the…

Five-year progression of unilateral age-related macular degeneration to bilateral involvement: the Three Continent AMD Consortium report

PubMed Central

Joachim, Nichole; Colijn, Johanna Maria; Kifley, Annette; Lee, Kristine E; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Klein, Barbara E K; Myers, Chelsea E; Meuer, Stacy M; Tan, Ava G; Holliday, Elizabeth G; Attia, John; Liew, Gerald; Iyengar, Sudha K; de Jong, Paulus T V M; Hofman, Albert; Vingerling, Johannes R; Mitchell, Paul; Klaver, Caroline C W; Klein, Ronald; Wang, Jie Jin

2018-01-01

Purpose To assess the 5-year progression from unilateral to bilateral age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and associated risk factors. Design Pooled data analyses of three prospective population-based cohorts, the Blue Mountains Eye Study, Beaver Dam Eye Study and Rotterdam Study. Methods Retinal photography and interview with comprehensive questionnaires were conducted at each visit of three studies. AMD was assessed following the modified Wisconsin AMD grading protocol. Progression to bilateral any (early and late) or late AMD was assessed among participants with unilateral involvement only. Factors associated with the progression were assessed using logistic regression models while simultaneously adjusting for other significant risk factors. Results In any 5-year duration, 19–28% of unilateral any AMD cases became bilateral and 27–68% of unilateral late AMD became bilateral. Factors associated with the progression to bilateral involvement of any AMD were age (per year increase, adjusted OR 1.07), carrying risk alleles of the complement factor H and age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 genes (compared with none, OR 1.76 for 1 risk allele and OR 3.34 for 2+ risk alleles), smoking (compared with non-smokers, OR 1.64 for past and OR 1.67 for current smokers), and the presence of large drusen area or retinal pigmentary abnormalities in the first eye. Conclusion One in four to one in five unilateral any AMD cases, and up to one in two unilateral late AMD cases, progressed to bilateral in 5 years. Known AMD risk factors, including smoking, are significantly associated with the progression to bilateral involvement. PMID:28108569

Comparative study of the Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores.

PubMed

Bojan, Mirela; Gerelli, Sébastien; Gioanni, Simone; Pouard, Philippe; Vouhé, Pascal

2011-09-01

The Aristotle Comprehensive Complexity (ACC) and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) scores have been proposed for complexity adjustment in the analysis of outcome after congenital heart surgery. Previous studies found RACHS-1 to be a better predictor of outcome than the Aristotle Basic Complexity score. We compared the ability to predict operative mortality and morbidity between ACC, the latest update of the Aristotle method and RACHS-1. Morbidity was assessed by length of intensive care unit stay. We retrospectively enrolled patients undergoing congenital heart surgery. We modeled each score as a continuous variable, mortality as a binary variable, and length of stay as a censored variable. We compared performance between mortality and morbidity models using likelihood ratio tests for nested models and paired concordance statistics. Among all 1,384 patients enrolled, 30-day mortality rate was 3.5% and median length of intensive care unit stay was 3 days. Both scores strongly related to mortality, but ACC made better prediction than RACHS-1; c-indexes 0.87 (0.84, 0.91) vs 0.75 (0.65, 0.82). Both scores related to overall length of stay only during the first postoperative week, but ACC made better predictions than RACHS-1; U statistic=0.22, p<0.001. No significant difference was noted after adjusting RACHS-1 models on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. The ACC was a better predictor of operative mortality and length of intensive care unit stay than RACHS-1. In order to achieve similar performance, regression models including RACHS-1 need to be further adjusted on age, prematurity, and major extracardiac abnormalities. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age and Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

White, Mary C.; Holman, Dawn M.; Boehm, Jennifer E.; Peipins, Lucy A.; Grossman, Melissa; Henley, S. Jane

2015-01-01

This article challenges the idea that cancer cannot be prevented among older adults by examining different aspects of the relationship between age and cancer. Although the sequential patterns of aging cannot be changed, several age-related factors that contribute to disease risk can be. For most adults, age is coincidentally associated with preventable chronic conditions, avoidable exposures, and modifiable risk behaviors that are causally associated with cancer. Midlife is a period of life when the prevalence of multiple cancer risk factors is high and incidence rates begin to increase for many types of cancer. However, current evidence suggests that for most adults, cancer does not have to be an inevitable consequence of growing older. Interventions that support healthy environments, help people manage chronic conditions, and promote healthy behaviors may help people make a healthier transition from midlife to older age and reduce the likelihood of developing cancer. Because the number of adults reaching older ages is increasing rapidly, the number of new cancer cases will also increase if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Thus, the need to translate the available research into practice to promote cancer prevention, especially for adults at midlife, has never been greater. PMID:24512933

Cancer risks after radiation exposure in middle age.

PubMed

Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K; Brenner, David J

2010-11-03

Epidemiological data show that radiation exposure during childhood is associated with larger cancer risks compared with exposure at older ages. For exposures in adulthood, however, the relative risks of radiation-induced cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors generally do not decrease monotonically with increasing age of adult exposure. These observations are inconsistent with most standard models of radiation-induced cancer, which predict that relative risks decrease monotonically with increasing age at exposure, at all ages. We analyzed observed cancer risk patterns as a function of age at exposure in Japanese atomic bomb survivors by using a biologically based quantitative model of radiation carcinogenesis that incorporates both radiation induction of premalignant cells (initiation) and radiation-induced promotion of premalignant damage. This approach emphasizes the kinetics of radiation-induced initiation and promotion, and tracks the yields of premalignant cells before, during, shortly after, and long after radiation exposure. Radiation risks after exposure in younger individuals are dominated by initiation processes, whereas radiation risks after exposure at later ages are more influenced by promotion of preexisting premalignant cells. Thus, the cancer site-dependent balance between initiation and promotion determines the dependence of cancer risk on age at radiation exposure. For example, in terms of radiation induction of premalignant cells, a quantitative measure of the relative contribution of initiation vs promotion is 10-fold larger for breast cancer than for lung cancer. Reflecting this difference, radiation-induced breast cancer risks decrease with age at exposure at all ages, whereas radiation-induced lung cancer risks do not. For radiation exposure in middle age, most radiation-induced cancer risks do not, as often assumed, decrease with increasing age at exposure. This observation suggests that promotional processes in radiation carcinogenesis

Who Moved My Cheese? Adjusting to Age-Related Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langer, Nieli

2012-01-01

The popular book, Who Moved My Cheese? (Johnson, 1998) is a metaphor for change. This parable-like story has particular resonance with older adults who face many potential life-altering changes. The four characters in the book are looking for their cheese in a maze. Cheese represents whatever makes people happy. How each character adjusts to the…

Coffee, tea and caffeine intake and the risk of severe depression in middle-aged Finnish men: the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study.

PubMed

Ruusunen, Anu; Lehto, Soili M; Tolmunen, Tommi; Mursu, Jaakko; Kaplan, George A; Voutilainen, Sari

2010-08-01

Only a few cross-sectional studies have assessed the association between coffee, tea and caffeine and the risk of depression. Our aim was to determine the association in a population-based cohort study. The population-based Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study cohort was recruited between 1984 and 1989 and followed until the end of 2006. We investigated the association between the intake of coffee, tea and caffeine and depression. Eastern Finland. Middle-aged men (n 2232). Altogether, forty-nine men received a discharge diagnosis of depression. We classified subjects into quartiles according to their mean daily coffee intake: non-drinkers (n 82), light drinkers (<375 ml/d, n 517), moderate drinkers (375-813 ml/d, n 1243) and heavy drinkers (>813 ml/d, n 390). Heavy drinkers had a decreased risk (RR = 0.28, 95 % CI 0.08, 0.98) for depression when compared with non-drinkers, after adjustment for age and examination years. Further adjustment for socio-economic status, alcohol consumption, smoking, maximal oxygen uptake, BMI and the energy-adjusted daily intakes of folate and PUFA did not attenuate this association (relative risk (RR) = 0.23, 95 % CI 0.06, 0.83). No associations were observed between depression and intake of tea (drinkers v. non-drinkers; RR = 1.19, 95 % CI 0.54, 2.23) or caffeine (highest quartile v. lowest quartile; RR = 0.99, 95 % CI 0.40, 2.45). Coffee consumption may decrease the risk of depression, whereas no association was found for tea and caffeine intake.

Incidence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in a Multi-Ethnic United States Population: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Fisher, Diana E; Klein, Barbara E K; Wong, Tien Y; Rotter, Jerome I; Li, Xiaohui; Shrager, Sandi; Burke, Gregory L; Klein, Ronald; Cotch, Mary Frances

2016-06-01

To describe the incidence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and associated risk factors in 4 racial/ethnic groups (white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese) residing in the United States. Prospective cohort study. A total of 3811 participants, aged 46 to 86 years, from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort, with retinal data collected twice, on average, 8 years apart. Fundus images, taken using a digital camera through dark-adapted pupils using a standard protocol and the same equipment at both study visits, were graded centrally for early and late AMD on the basis of drusen size, type and area, increased retinal pigment, retinal pigment epithelial depigmentation, neovascular lesions, and geographic atrophy using the modified Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory measures were included in multivariable regression models to determine their impact on the variation in AMD incidence among racial/ethnic groups. Incident early and late AMD. The overall 8-year age- and sex-standardized incidence of early and late AMD were 4.1% and 2.3%, respectively, with incidence of early and late AMD highest in whites (5.3% and 4.1%, respectively), intermediate in Chinese (4.5% and 2.2%, respectively) and Hispanics (3.3% and 0.8%, respectively), and lowest in blacks (1.6% and 0.4%, respectively). By adjusting for age and sex, blacks had a 70% lower risk of developing early AMD than whites, and this decreased only slightly to a 67% lower risk after multivariable adjustment. By adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, hyperopia was associated with early AMD (odds ratio [OR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-2.20), as was astigmatism (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.00-2.16), but not myopia (P = 0.29). Age, race/ethnicity, current smoking, hyperopia, and AMD-susceptibility genotypes Complement Factor H (CFH) RS1061170 and Age Related Maculopathy Susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) RS3793917 were independently associated with

Ageing opioid users' increased risk of methadone-specific death in the UK.

PubMed

Pierce, Matthias; Millar, Tim; Robertson, J Roy; Bird, Sheila M

2018-05-01

The first evidence that the hazard ratio (HR) for methadone-specific death rises more steeply with age-group than for all drug-related deaths (DRDs) came from Scotland's cohort of 33,000 methadone-prescription clients. We aim to examine, for England, whether illicit opioid users' risk of methadone-specific death increases with age; and to pool age-related HRs for methadone-specific deaths with those for Scotland's methadone-prescription clients. The setting is all services in England that provide publicly-funded, structured treatment for illicit opioid users, the methodology linkage of the English National Drug Treatment Monitoring System and mortality database, and key measurements are DRDs, methadone-specific DRDs, or heroin-specific DRDs, by age-group and gender, with proportional hazards adjustment for substances used, injecting status and periods in/out of treatment. Linkage was achieved for 129,979 adults receiving prescribing treatment modalities for opioid dependence during April 2005 to March 2009 and followed-up for 378,009 person-years (pys). There were 1,266 DRDs: 271 methadone-specific (7 per 10,000 pys: irrespective of gender) and 473 heroin-specific (15 per 10,000 pys for males, 7 for females). Methadone-specific DRD-rate per 10,000 person-years was 3.5 (95% CI: 2.7-4.4) at 18-34 years, 8.9 (CI: 7.3-10.5) at 35-44 years and 18 (CI: 13.8-21.2) at 45+ years; heroin-specific DRD-rate was unchanged with age. Relative to 25-34 years, pooled HRs for UK clients' methadone-specific deaths were: 0.87 at <25 years (95% CI: 0.56-1.35); 2.14 at 35-44 years (95% CI: 1.76-2.60); 3.75 at 45+ years (95% CI: 2.99-4.70). International testing and explanation are needed of UK's sharp age-related increase in the risk of methadone-specific death. Clients should be alerted that their risk of methadone-specific death increases as they age. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

School-age adopted Chinese girls' behavioral adjustment, academic performance, and social skills: longitudinal results.

PubMed

Tan, Tony Xing

2009-04-01

Longitudinal data on 177 school-age adopted Chinese girls (Time 1: mean age = 8.92 years, SD = 1.76; Time 2: mean age = 11.18 years, SD = 1.79) were analyzed to determine their long-term outcomes in behavioral adjustment, academic performance (measured with the Child Behavior Checklist/6-18), and social skills (measured with the Social Skills Rating System) and how these outcomes were related to preadoption adversity. More than 90% of the girls were adopted at 24 months or younger (M = 19.25, SD = 21.67). Results revealed that over a 2-year period, there was a moderate to strong stability in the children's behavioral adjustment and academic performance. However, there was a significant increase in the number of children with deviant internalizing problems. At both times, higher degrees of preadoption adversity were related to more internalizing problems and poorer academic performance. Children who were adopted at older ages had poorer academic performance. Children who were older had a lower level of assertion and a higher level of responsibility. Children's attention problems at Time 1 mediated the effect of preadoption adversity on academic performance at Time 2. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Associations between genetic polymorphisms of insulin-like growth factor axis genes and risk for age-related macular degeneration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose: Our objective was to investigate if insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis genes affect the risk for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: 864 Caucasian non-diabetic participants from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) Genetic Repository were used in this case control st...

A longitudinal high-risk study of adolescent anxiety, depression and parent-severity on the developmental course of risk-adjustment.

PubMed

Rawal, Adhip; Riglin, Lucy; Ng-Knight, Terry; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2014-11-01

Adolescence is associated with developments in the reward system and increased rates of emotional disorders. Familial risk for depression may be associated with disruptions in the reward system. However, it is unclear how symptoms of depression and anxiety influence the development of reward-processing over adolescence and whether variation in the severity of parental depression is associated with hyposensitivity to reward in a high-risk sample. We focused on risk-adjustment (adjusting decisions about reward according to the probability of obtaining reward) as this was hypothesized to improve over adolescence. In a one-year longitudinal sample (N = 197) of adolescent offspring of depressed parents, we examined how symptoms of depression and anxiety (generalized anxiety and social anxiety) influenced the development of risk-adjustment. We also examined how parental depression severity influenced adolescent risk-adjustment. Risk-adjustment improved over the course of the study indicating improved adjustment of reward-seeking to shifting contingencies. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreases in risk-adjustment over time while social anxiety symptoms were associated with increases in risk-adjustment over time. Specifically, depression was associated with reductions in reward-seeking at favourable reward probabilities only, whereas social anxiety (but not generalized anxiety) led to reductions in reward-seeking at low reward probabilities only. Parent depression severity was associated with lowered risk-adjustment in offspring and also influenced the longitudinal relationship between risk-adjustment and offspring depression. Anxiety and depression distinctly alter the pattern of longitudinal change in reward-processing. Severity of parent depression was associated with alterations in adolescent offspring reward-processing in a high-risk sample. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of

Low Vision Rehabilitation, Age-Related Vision Loss, and Risk: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis

PubMed Central

Laliberte Rudman, Debbie; Egan, Mary Y.; McGrath, Colleen E.; Kessler, Dorothy; Gardner, Paula; King, Judy; Ceci, Christine

2016-01-01

Purpose: Given the centrality of risk in geriatric rehabilitation, it is critically important to attend to how conceptualizations of risk shape research, policies, and rehabilitation practices. This paper presents a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) of literature addressing risk and low vision rehabilitation for older adults with age-related vision loss (ARVL) to identify key guiding assumptions regarding risk and discuss implications for what gets attended to, and not attended to, within research and rehabilitation. Design and Methods: This CIS combined guidelines proposed by Dixon-Woods and colleagues (2006—Conducting a critical interpretive synthesis of the literature on access to healthcare by vulnerable groups. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 6, 35) and Alvesson and Sandberg (2011—Generating research questions through problematization. Academy of Management Review, 36, 247–271; 2013—Constructing research questions: Doing interesting research. London: Sage). The iterative review process involved 3 steps: literature search and selection, data extraction, and syntheses to identify boundary assumptions. The dataset included 83 research and practice description articles. Results: Older adults with ARVL were constructed as “at risk” for various adverse outcomes, particularly dependency and self-harm, and as posing risks to others. An epidemiological approach to risk based in assumptions aligned with a technico-scientific perspective was dominant, with risk conceptualized as an embodied, individual-level phenomenon that is to be determined and managed through objective screening and expert monitoring. Implications: Key concerns include a lack of: attention to the tensions created when rehabilitation research and practice attempt to promote independence while simultaneously reducing risk, incorporation of aging adults’ perspectives on risk, and analysis of environmental factors that shape risks. Research that starts by valuing older adults�

[Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

PubMed

Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

2017-11-01

The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-01-01

Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

PubMed

Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

2003-07-01

Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

Differential DNA Methylation in Relation to Age and Health Risks of Obesity.

PubMed

Mansego, María Luisa; Milagro, Fermín I; Zulet, María Ángeles; Moreno-Aliaga, María J; Martínez, José Alfredo

2015-07-24

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether genome-wide levels of DNA methylation are associated with age and the health risks of obesity (HRO); defined according to BMI categories as "Low HRO" (overweight and class 1 obesity) versus "High HRO" (class 2 and class 3 obesity). Anthropometric measurements were assessed in a subsample of 48 volunteers from the Metabolic Syndrome Reduction in Navarra (RESMENA) study and 24 women from another independent study, Effects of Lipoic Acid and Eicosapentaenoic Acid in Human Obesity (OBEPALIP study). In the pooled population; the methylation levels of 55 CpG sites were significantly associated with age after Benjamini-Hochberg correction. In addition, DNA methylation of three CpG sites located in ELOVL2; HOXC4 and PI4KB were further negatively associated with their mRNA levels. Although no differentially methylated CpG sites were identified in relation to HRO after multiple testing correction; several nominally significant CpG sites were identified in genes related to insulin signaling; energy and lipid metabolism. Moreover, statistically significant associations between BMI or mRNA levels and two HRO-related CpG sites located in GPR133 and ITGB5 are reported. As a conclusion, these findings from two Spanish cohorts add knowledge about the important role of DNA methylation in the age-related regulation of gene expression. In addition; a relevant influence of age on DNA methylation in white blood cells was found, as well as, on a trend level, novel associations between DNA methylation and obesity.

IQ in late adolescence/early adulthood, risk factors in middle age, and later cancer mortality in men: the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Mortensen, Laust H; Gale, Catharine R; Shipley, Martin J; Roberts, Beverly A; Deary, Ian J

2009-10-01

(i) examine the relation, if any, of pre-morbid IQ scores at 20 years of age with the risk of later cancer mortality; and (ii) explore the role, if any, of potential mediating factors (e.g. smoking, obesity), assessed in middle age, in explaining the IQ-cancer relation. Cohort study of 14, 491 male, Vietnam-era, former US army personnel with IQ test scores at around 20 years of age (1965-71), who participated in a risk factor survey at around age 38 years of age (1985-6), who were then followed up for mortality experience for 15 years. There were 176 cancer deaths during mortality surveillance. We found an inverse association of IQ with later mortality from all cancers combined (age-adjusted HR(per one SD decrease in IQ); 95% confidence interval: 1.27; 1.10, 1.46) and smoking-related malignancies (1.37; 1.14, 1.64). There was some attenuation following control for mediating variables, particularly smoking and income, but the gradients generally held at conventional levels of statistical significance. Higher scores on pre-morbid IQ tests are associated with lower risk of later cancer morality. The strength of the relation was partially mediated by established risk factors.

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Childhood Cognitive Ability and Age-Related Changes in Physical Capability From Midlife: Findings From a British Birth Cohort Study.

PubMed

Cooper, Rachel; Richards, Marcus; Kuh, Diana

2017-09-01

The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that higher childhood cognitive ability is associated with reduced risk of decline in physical capability in late midlife. Participants were 1954 men and women from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development with complete data on cognitive ability at age of 15 years and measures of grip strength and chair rise speed at ages of 53 and 60 to 64 years. Using multinomial logistic regression, associations of childhood cognitive ability with categories of change in grip strength and chair rise speed (i.e., decline, stable high, stable low, reference) were investigated. Adjustments were made for potential confounders from early life and adult mediators including health behaviors, educational level, and cognitive ability at age of 53 years. Higher childhood cognitive scores were associated with reduced risks of decline in grip strength and chair rise speed, for example, the sex-adjusted relative-risk ratio of decline (versus reference) in grip strength per 1SD increase in childhood cognitive score was 0.82 (95% confidence interval = 0.73-0.92). Higher childhood cognitive scores were also associated with reduced risk of stable low and increased likelihood of stable high chair rise speed. These findings suggest that childhood cognitive ability may be related to decline in physical capability in late midlife. A number of life course pathways are implicated, including those linking childhood and adult cognitive ability. Future research aiming to identify new opportunities to prevent or minimize age-related declines in physical capability may benefit from considering the potential role of neurodevelopmental as well as neurodegenerative pathways.

Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

PubMed

Wintemute, Garen J

2011-12-01

Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Police-related experiences and HIV risk among female sex workers in Andhra Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Erausquin, Jennifer Toller; Reed, Elizabeth; Blankenship, Kim M

2011-12-01

Research suggests experiences with police are related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sexual risk among women working as sex workers. However, little is known about the links between specific police-related behaviors and HIV vulnerability. We examine whether 5 police-related experiences are associated with measures of HIV risk and violence among a sample of female sex workers (FSWs) in Andhra Pradesh, India, and consider the implications for HIV prevention. FSWs at least 18 years of age (n = 835) were recruited through respondent-driven sampling for a cross-sectional survey conducted as part of Avahan, the India AIDS Initiative. Using logistic regression models adjusted for age, age at start of sex work, and sex work venue, we assessed police-related experiences reported by FSWs in relation to HIV risk behaviors and violence. Results showed having sex with police to avoid trouble, giving gifts to police to avoid trouble, having police take condoms away, experiencing a workplace raid, and being arrested were associated with sexually transmitted infection symptoms, inconsistent condom use, acceptance of more money for sex without a condom, and experience of client violence. These findings suggest a need for interventions targeting police-FSW interactions to reduce HIV vulnerability among FSWs.

Police-Related Experiences and HIV Risk Among Female Sex Workers in Andhra Pradesh, India

PubMed Central

Reed, Elizabeth; Blankenship, Kim M.

2011-01-01

Research suggests experiences with police are related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sexual risk among women working as sex workers. However, little is known about the links between specific police-related behaviors and HIV vulnerability. We examine whether 5 police-related experiences are associated with measures of HIV risk and violence among a sample of female sex workers (FSWs) in Andhra Pradesh, India, and consider the implications for HIV prevention. FSWs at least 18 years of age (n = 835) were recruited through respondent-driven sampling for a cross-sectional survey conducted as part of Avahan, the India AIDS Initiative. Using logistic regression models adjusted for age, age at start of sex work, and sex work venue, we assessed police-related experiences reported by FSWs in relation to HIV risk behaviors and violence. Results showed having sex with police to avoid trouble, giving gifts to police to avoid trouble, having police take condoms away, experiencing a workplace raid, and being arrested were associated with sexually transmitted infection symptoms, inconsistent condom use, acceptance of more money for sex without a condom, and experience of client violence. These findings suggest a need for interventions targeting police–FSW interactions to reduce HIV vulnerability among FSWs. PMID:22043036

When methods meet politics: how risk adjustment became part of Medicare managed care.

PubMed

Weissman, Joel S; Wachterman, Melissa; Blumenthal, David

2005-06-01

Health-based risk adjustment has long been touted as key to the success of competitive models of health care. Because it decreases the incentive to enroll only healthy patients in insurance plans, risk adjustment was incorporated into Medicare policy via the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. However, full implementation of risk adjustment was delayed due to clashes with the managed care industry over payment policy, concerns over perverse incentives, and problems of data burden. We review the history of risk adjustment leading up to the Balanced Budget Act and examine the controversies surrounding attempts to stop or delay its implementation during the years that followed. The article provides lessons for the future of health-based risk adjustment and possible alternatives.

Are Lung Disease and Function Related to Age-related Macular Degeneration?

PubMed Central

Moorthy, Sonia; Cheung, Ning; Klein, Ronald; Shahar, E; Wong, Tien Y

2010-01-01

Purpose To describe the relationship of lung disease and function with early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a population-based study. Design A population-based, cross-sectional study of 12,596 middle-aged participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Methods Lung function was assessed by spirometry. Physician diagnosis of asthma and lung disease was ascertained from a standardized questionnaire. AMD signs were graded from fundus photographs according to the Wisconsin grading protocol. Results Of our study population, 587 (4.7%) had early AMD, 638 (5.1%) had asthma and 581 (4.6%) had lung disease. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking and hypertension, each litre increase in predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) (odds ratio [OR]: 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 1.80), forced vital capacity (FVC) (OR 1.18; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.51) and peak expiratory flow rate (OR 1.12; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.33) were not significantly associated with early AMD. FEV1/FVC ratio (second quartile OR 1.61; 95%CI 0.88–2.93, third quartile OR 1.65; CI 0.90–3.03, fourth quartile OR 1.28; 95%CI 0.68–2.40) was not significantly associated with early AMD. Similarly, asthma (OR 1.06; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.27) and other lung diseases (OR 1.08; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.29) were not associated with early AMD. Conclusion Our data do not support a cross-sectional association between lung disease and risk of early AMD. PMID:21168814

The relation between maternal schizophrenia and low birth weight is modified by paternal age.

PubMed

Lin, Herng-Ching; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Tang, Chao-Hsuin; Chen, Yi-Hua

2010-06-01

Paternal characteristics have never been considered in the relation between maternal schizophrenia and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The aim of our study was to consider different paternal ages while investigating the relation between maternal schizophrenia and low birth weight (LBW), using a nationwide population-based dataset. Our study used data from the 2001 to 2003 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Dataset and birth certificate registry. A total of 543 394 singleton live births were included. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses to explore the relation between maternal schizophrenia and the risk of LBW, taking different paternal age groups into account (aged 29 years or younger, 30 to 39 years, and 40 years and older), and after adjusting for other characteristics of infant, mother, and father as well as the difference between the parent's ages. Mothers with schizophrenia had a higher percentage of LBW infants than mothers who did not (11.8%, compared with 6.8%). For infants whose mothers had schizophrenia, the adjusted odds ratios of LBW were 1.47 (95% CI 1.02 to 2.27, P < 0.05) and 2.80 (95% CI 1.42 to 5.51, P < 0.01) times greater than for infants whose mothers did not have schizophrenia, for paternal age groups of 30 to 39 years and 40 years or older, respectively. However, maternal schizophrenia was not a significant predictor of LBW for infants whose fathers were aged 29 years and younger. The relation between LBW and maternal schizophrenia is modified by paternal age. More attention should be paid to the interaction of paternal characteristics and maternal psychiatric disorders in producing adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Parental influences on cardiovascular risk factors in Swedish children aged 5-14 years.

PubMed

Khanolkar, Amal R; Byberg, Liisa; Koupil, Ilona

2012-12-01

Precursors of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) originate in childhood. We investigated relationships of children's CVD risk factors with parent's socio-economic position (SEP) and lifestyle and how CVD risk factors correlate within families. We studied 602 families with 2141 individuals comprising two full sibs; aged 5-14 years, and their biological parents (Uppsala Family Study). Parental SEP (occupational class and education) and lifestyle habits [smoking, physical activity (PA), alcohol consumption] were taken from questionnaires. Associations with cholesterol, ApoB/ApoA1, leptin, adiponectin, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and overweight/obesity (OW/OB) were analysed by linear/logistic regression. Results were adjusted for child's age, gender, pubertal stage and family clustering. We observed no consistent associations between parental SEP and children's CVD risk factors. Parental lifestyle had stronger effects, independent of parental SEP. Children of smoking fathers had higher BMI (4%, 95% CI 1-7%) and leptin levels (27%, 95% CI 1.00-61.60%). Children of mothers reporting vigorous PA had lower BMI, cholesterol and decreased odds for OW/OB with a possible dose effect. Compared with mothers reporting no vigorous activity, mothers with ≤75 min and 76-150 min/week of vigorous activity had 43% (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.22-0.89) and 72% (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.14-0.60) lower risk of having an OW/OB child, respectively, after adjustment for confounders. Independent, consistently stronger and significant associations were found between all studied parents' and children's CVD risk factors. Parental behaviours: smoking, alcohol consumption, low PA are associated with higher levels of CVD risk factors (BMI, OW/OB, cholesterol) in children. Strong correlations in CVD risk factors within families not related to parental SEP/lifestyle suggest a role of genetics in influencing children's CVD risk factors. Public health policies should target families with unhealthy lifestyles.

Physical activity attenuates age-related biomarker alterations in preclinical AD

PubMed Central

Schultz, Stephanie A.; Oh, Jennifer M.; Larson, Jordan; Edwards, Dorothy; Cook, Dane; Koscik, Rebecca; Gallagher, Catherine L.; Dowling, N.M.; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Bendlin, Barbara B.; LaRue, Asenath; Rowley, Howard A.; Christian, Brad T.; Asthana, Sanjay; Hermann, Bruce P.; Johnson, Sterling C.; Sager, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine whether engagement in physical activity might favorably alter the age-dependent evolution of Alzheimer disease (AD)-related brain and cognitive changes in a cohort of at-risk, late-middle-aged adults. Methods: Three hundred seventeen enrollees in the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention underwent T1 MRI; a subset also underwent 11C-Pittsburgh compound B–PET (n = 186) and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose–PET (n = 152) imaging. Participants' responses on a self-report measure of current physical activity were used to classify them as either physically active or physically inactive based on American Heart Association guidelines. They also completed a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. Covariate-adjusted regression analyses were used to test whether the adverse effect of age on imaging and cognitive biomarkers was modified by physical activity. Results: There were significant age × physical activity interactions for β-amyloid burden (p = 0.014), glucose metabolism (p = 0.015), and hippocampal volume (p = 0.025) such that, with advancing age, physically active individuals exhibited a lesser degree of biomarker alterations compared with the physically inactive. Similar age × physical activity interactions were also observed on cognitive domains of Immediate Memory (p = 0.042) and Visuospatial Ability (p = 0.016). In addition, the physically active group had higher scores on Speed and Flexibility (p = 0.002) compared with the inactive group. Conclusions: In a middle-aged, at-risk cohort, a physically active lifestyle is associated with an attenuation of the deleterious influence of age on key biomarkers of AD pathophysiology. However, because our observational, cross-sectional design cannot establish causality, randomized controlled trials/longitudinal studies will be necessary for determining whether midlife participation in structured physical exercise forestalls the development of AD and related disorders in later life. PMID:25298312

Physical activity attenuates age-related biomarker alterations in preclinical AD.

PubMed

Okonkwo, Ozioma C; Schultz, Stephanie A; Oh, Jennifer M; Larson, Jordan; Edwards, Dorothy; Cook, Dane; Koscik, Rebecca; Gallagher, Catherine L; Dowling, N M; Carlsson, Cynthia M; Bendlin, Barbara B; LaRue, Asenath; Rowley, Howard A; Christian, Brad T; Asthana, Sanjay; Hermann, Bruce P; Johnson, Sterling C; Sager, Mark A

2014-11-04

To examine whether engagement in physical activity might favorably alter the age-dependent evolution of Alzheimer disease (AD)-related brain and cognitive changes in a cohort of at-risk, late-middle-aged adults. Three hundred seventeen enrollees in the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention underwent T1 MRI; a subset also underwent (11)C-Pittsburgh compound B-PET (n = 186) and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose-PET (n = 152) imaging. Participants' responses on a self-report measure of current physical activity were used to classify them as either physically active or physically inactive based on American Heart Association guidelines. They also completed a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. Covariate-adjusted regression analyses were used to test whether the adverse effect of age on imaging and cognitive biomarkers was modified by physical activity. There were significant age × physical activity interactions for β-amyloid burden (p = 0.014), glucose metabolism (p = 0.015), and hippocampal volume (p = 0.025) such that, with advancing age, physically active individuals exhibited a lesser degree of biomarker alterations compared with the physically inactive. Similar age × physical activity interactions were also observed on cognitive domains of Immediate Memory (p = 0.042) and Visuospatial Ability (p = 0.016). In addition, the physically active group had higher scores on Speed and Flexibility (p = 0.002) compared with the inactive group. In a middle-aged, at-risk cohort, a physically active lifestyle is associated with an attenuation of the deleterious influence of age on key biomarkers of AD pathophysiology. However, because our observational, cross-sectional design cannot establish causality, randomized controlled trials/longitudinal studies will be necessary for determining whether midlife participation in structured physical exercise forestalls the development of AD and related disorders in later life. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

The prevalence of and risk factors for prostatitis-like symptoms and its relation to erectile dysfunction in Chinese men.

PubMed

Zhang, Z; Li, Z; Yu, Q; Wu, C; Lu, Z; Zhu, F; Zhang, H; Liao, M; Li, T; Chen, W; Xian, X; Tan, A; Mo, Z

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of and risk factors for prostatitis-like symptoms and its relation to erectile dysfunction (ED) among southern Chinese men. Data were collected from 2790 men attending the Fangchenggang Area Male Healthy and Examination Survey from September 2009 to December 2009. The prostatitis-like symptoms were assessed by the NIH Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index and ED was assessed using the 5-item International Index of Erectile Function. Lifestyle and demographic characteristics were obtained through a questionnaire. Prevalence of prostatitis-like symptoms was 12.4% among 2790 Chinese men aged 20-84 years. In smokers who smoked ≥20 cigarettes per day (age-adjusted OR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.00-1.66; p = 0.04), physical inactivity (age-adjusted OR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.03-1.66; p = 0.02) was a significant risk factor for prostatitis-like symptoms. Alcohol consumption (daily drinking) also was a risk factor for prostatitis-like symptoms, although the differences were not statistically significant (age-adjusted OR = 1.36; 95% CI = 0.96-1.92; p = 0.07). Those with diabetes may also be at higher risk for prostatitis-like symptoms (age-adjusted OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 0.85-2.21; p = 0.19). In addition, men with ED were more likely to have had prostatitis-like symptoms (age-adjusted OR = 1.86; 95% CI = 0.47-2.36; p < 0.0001), and the ORs increased with increasing severity of ED status (mild ED, mild to moderate ED, and moderate to severe ED were 1.57, 2.62, and 3.24, respectively. Test for trend, p = 0.0001). Our results show that prostatitis-like symptoms are prevalent in Southern China affecting men of all ages. Smoking, drinking, lack of physical activity, and elevated plasma glucose level were associated with an increased risk of prostatitis-like symptoms. In addition, our results reveal that ED accounted for a large proportion (61.5%) among men with prostatitis-like symptoms; we also confirm the magnitude of ED associated with

Obesity Risk Knowledge, Weight Misperception, and Diet and Health-Related Attitudes among Women Intending to Become Pregnant.

PubMed

Berenson, Abbey B; Pohlmeier, Ali M; Laz, Tabassum H; Rahman, Mahbubur; Saade, George

2016-01-01

Our aim was to evaluate obesity risk knowledge, weight misperception, and diet and health-related attitudes among women intending to become pregnant compared to those not intending to become pregnant. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of health behaviors, including obesity risk knowledge, weight misperception, and diet and health-related attitudes among women (aged 16 to 40 years) attending reproductive health clinics in southeast Texas. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaires and chart review. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between pregnancy intention and obesity risk knowledge, weight misperception, and health-related attitudes after adjusting for age, race, income, and gravidity. Overall, 1,726 women completed the survey, of which 1,420 responded to a question on pregnancy intention. Of these, 126 stated they were intending to become pregnant. Obesity risk knowledge (adjusted odds ratio=1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74 to 1.77) and weight misperception (adjusted odds ratio=1.17; 95% CI 0.75 to 1.83) did not differ between women intending and not intending to become pregnant. In addition, diet and health-related attitudes did not differ between these two groups (P>0.05 for all). Among women intending to become pregnant, 51% had low obesity risk knowledge and 31% misperceived their body weight. Further, 76% of these women felt confused about what constitutes a healthy diet, although 47% believed that their current diet was healthy and saw no reason to change their current eating patterns. While weight misperception did not differ significantly between the two groups, overweight women intending to become pregnant were more likely to misperceive their weight than obese women intending to become pregnant (71% vs 10%; P<0.001). There is a need for improved preconception counseling, especially for women intending to become pregnant, regarding the risks associated with being overweight

Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

2013-01-01

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

Polymorphisms in ARMS2/HTRA1 and Complement Genes and Age-Related Macular Degeneration in India: Findings from the INDEYE Study

PubMed Central

Sundaresan, Periasamy; Vashist, Praveen; Ravindran, Ravilla D.; Shanker, Ashwini; Nitsch, Dorothea; Nonyane, Bareng A. S.; Smeeth, Liam; Chakravarthy, Usha; Fletcher, Astrid E.

2012-01-01

Purpose. Association between genetic variants in complement factor H (CFH), factor B (CFB), component 2 (C2), and in the ARMS2/HTRA1 region with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) comes mainly from studies of European ancestry and case-control studies of late-stage disease. We investigated associations of both early and late AMD with these variants in a population-based study of people aged 60 years and older in India. Methods. Fundus images were graded using the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System and participants assigned to one of four mutually exclusive stages based on the worse affected eye (0 = no AMD, 1–3 = early AMD, 4 = late AMD). Multinomial logistic regression was used to derive risk ratios (RR) accounting for sampling method and adjusting for age, sex, and study center. Results. Of 3569 participants, 53.2% had no signs of AMD, 45.6% had features of early AMD, and 1.2% had late AMD. CFH (rs1061170), C2 (rs547154), or CFB (rs438999) was not associated with early or late AMD. In the ARMS2 locus, rs10490924 was associated with both early (adjusted RR 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13–1.33, P < 0.0001) and late AMD (adjusted RR 1.81, 95% CI: 1.15–2.86; P = 0.01); rs2672598 was associated only with early AMD (adjusted RR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02–1.23; P = 0.02); rs10490923 was not associated with early or late AMD. Conclusions. Two variants in ARMS2/HTRA1 were associated with increased risk of early AMD, and for one of these, the increased risk was also evident for late AMD. The study provides new insights into the role of these variants in early stages of AMD in India. PMID:23060141

Is complexity of work associated with risk of dementia? The Canadian Study of Health And Aging.

PubMed

Kröger, Edeltraut; Andel, Ross; Lindsay, Joan; Benounissa, Zohra; Verreault, René; Laurin, Danielle

2008-04-01

The authors evaluated the association of complexity of work with data, people, and things with the incidence of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, while adjusting for work-related physical activity. The Canadian Study of Health and Aging is a 10-year population study, from 1991 to 2001, of a representative sample of persons aged 65 years or older. Lifetime job history allowed application of complexity scores and classification of work-related physical activity. Analyses included 3,557 subjects, of whom 400 were incident dementia cases, including 299 with Alzheimer's disease and 93 with vascular dementia. In fully adjusted Cox regression models, high complexity of work with people or things reduced risk of dementia (hazard ratios were 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.98) and 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.99), respectively) but not Alzheimer's disease. For vascular dementia, hazard ratios were 0.36 (95% confidence interval: 0.15, 0.90) for high complexity of work with people and 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.25, 1.00) for high complexity of work with things. Subgroup analyses according to median duration (23 years) of principal occupation showed that associations with complexity varied according to duration of employment. High complexity of work appears to be associated with risk of dementia, but effects may vary according to subtype.

Maternal prepregnancy obesity is an independent risk factor for frequent wheezing in infants by age 14 months.

PubMed

Guerra, Stefano; Sartini, Claudio; Mendez, Michelle; Morales, Eva; Guxens, Mònica; Basterrechea, Mikel; Arranz, Leonor; Sunyer, Jordi

2013-01-01

Maternal prepregnancy obesity has been linked to the offspring's risk for subsequent asthma. We determined whether maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of wheezing phenotypes early in life. We used data on 1107 mother-child pairs from two birth cohorts from the INMA-INfancia y Medio Ambiente project. Maternal height was measured and prepregnancy weight self-reported at enrolment (on average at 13.7 ± 2 weeks of gestation). Maternal prepregnancy body mass index was categorised as underweight, normal, overweight and obese according to WHO recommendations. Information on child's wheezing was obtained through questionnaires up to the age of 14 (± 1) months. Wheezing was classified as infrequent (<4 reported wheezing episodes) or frequent (≥ 4 episodes). Weight and length of infants were measured by trained study staff at 14.6 (± 1) months of age and weight-for-length z-scores computed. Although maternal obesity did not increase the risk of the child to have any or infrequent wheezing, children of obese mothers were more likely to have frequent wheezing than children of normal-weight mothers (11.8% vs. 3.8%; P = 0.002). In fully adjusted multinomial logistic regression models, including infants' weight-for-length z-scores and other covariates, maternal prepregnancy obesity was associated with increased risk of frequent [adjusted relative risk (RR) 4.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.55, 11.3] but not infrequent (RR 1.05 [95% CI 0.55, 2.01]) wheezing in their children. Maternal prepregnancy obesity is independently associated with an increased risk of frequent wheezing in the infant by the age of 14 months. These findings add evidence on the potential effects of in utero exposures on asthma-related phenotypes. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Risk of breast cancer in young women in relation to body size and weight gain in adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Coates, R J; Uhler, R J; Hall, H I; Potischman, N; Brinton, L A; Ballard-Barbash, R; Gammon, M D; Brogan, D R; Daling, J R; Malone, K E; Schoenberg, J B; Swanson, C A

1999-09-01

Findings have been inconsistent on effects of adolescent body size and adult weight gain on risk of breast cancer in young women. These relations were examined in a population-based case control study of 1590 women less than 45 years of age newly diagnosed with breast cancer during 1990-1992 in three areas of the US and an age-matched control group of 1390 women. Height and weight were measured at interview and participants asked to recall information about earlier body size. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer adjusted for other risk factors. Women who were either much heavier or lighter than average in adolescence or at age 20 were at reduced risk. Weight gain after age 20 resulted in reduced risk, but the effect was confined to early-stage and, more specifically, lower grade breast cancer. Neither the risk reduction nor the variation by breast cancer stage or grade was explained by the method of cancer detection or by prior mammography history. These findings suggest that relations between breast cancer risk in young women and body weight at different ages is complex and that the risk reduction with adult weight gain is confined to less aggressive cancers.

Physical activity and the 15-year incidence of age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Gopinath, Bamini; Liew, Gerald; Burlutsky, George; Mitchell, Paul

2014-11-11

There is uncertainty in the published literature as to whether physical activity should be advocated for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) prevention. We aimed to assess prospectively the association between physical activity and the 15-year incidence of AMD in older adults. We assessed AMD from retinal photographs. Participants provided details of walking exercise and the performance of moderate or vigorous activities, which were used to calculate metabolic equivalents (METs). After adjusting for age, adults aged ≥ 75 years in the highest tertile (the most physically active) compared to those in the lowest tertile (least physically active) were 79% less likely to have incident late AMD over the 15 years (odds ratio [OR], 0.21; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 0.05-0.95). However, after further adjusting for sex, body mass index, smoking, fish consumption, and white cell count, this association was no longer statistically significant (OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.06-1.28). Significant associations were not found in those aged <75 or with the 15-year cumulative incidence of early AMD. Physical activity did not influence the risk of AMD over 15 years in older adults, independent of diet, smoking, white cell count, and body mass index. Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

Prediagnostic Sex Steroid Hormones in Relation to Male Breast Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Brinton, Louise A.; Key, Tim J.; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Michels, Karin B.; Sesso, Howard D.; Ursin, Giske; Van Den Eeden, Stephen K.; Wood, Shannon N.; Falk, Roni T.; Parisi, Dominick; Guillemette, Chantal; Caron, Patrick; Turcotte, Véronique; Habel, Laurel A.; Isaacs, Claudine J.; Riboli, Elio; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Cook, Michael B.

2015-01-01

Purpose Although previous studies have implicated a variety of hormone-related risk factors in the etiology of male breast cancers, no previous studies have examined the effects of endogenous hormones. Patients and Methods Within the Male Breast Cancer Pooling Project, an international consortium comprising 21 case-control and cohort investigations, a subset of seven prospective cohort studies were able to contribute prediagnostic serum or plasma samples for hormone quantitation. Using a nested case-control design, multivariable unconditional logistic regression analyses estimated odds ratios and 95% CIs for associations between male breast cancer risk and 11 individual estrogens and androgens, as well as selected ratios of these analytes. Results Data from 101 cases and 217 matched controls were analyzed. After adjustment for age and date of blood draw, race, and body mass index, androgens were found to be largely unrelated to risk, but circulating estradiol levels showed a significant association. Men in the highest quartile had an odds ratio of 2.47 (95% CI, 1.10 to 5.58) compared with those in the lowest quartile (trend P = .06). Assessment of estradiol as a ratio to various individual androgens or sum of androgens showed no further enhancement of risk. These relations were not significantly modified by either age or body mass index, although estradiol was slightly more strongly related to breast cancers occurring among younger (age < 67 years) than older men. Conclusion Our results support the notion of an important role for estradiol in the etiology of male breast cancers, similar to female breast cancers. PMID:25964249

COGNITIVELY NORMAL INDIVIDUALS WITH AD PARENTS MAY BE AT RISK FOR DEVELOPING AGING-RELATED CORTICAL THINNING PATTERNS CHARACTERISTIC OF AD

PubMed Central

Reiter, Katherine; Alpert, Kathryn I.; Cobia, Derin J.; Kwasny, Mary J.; Morris, John C.; Csernansky, John C.; Wang, Lei

2012-01-01

Children of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) patients are at heightened risk of developing AD due to genetic influences, including the apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) allele. In this study, we assessed the earliest cortical changes associated with AD in 71 cognitively healthy, adult children of AD patients (AD offspring) as compared with 69 with no family history of AD (non-AD offspring). Cortical thickness measures were obtained using FreeSurfer from 1.5T magnetic resonance (MR) scans. ApoE genotyping was obtained. Primary analyses examined family history and ApoeE4 effects on cortical thickness. Secondary analyses examined age effects within groups. All comparisons were adjusted using False Discovery Rate at a significance threshold of p < 0.05. There were no statistically significant differences between family history and ApoE4 groups. Within AD offspring, increasing age was related to reduced cortical thickness (atrophy) over large areas of the precuneus, superior frontal and superior temporal gyri, starting at around age 60. Further, these patterns existed within female and maternal AD offspring, but were absent in male and paternal AD offspring. Within non-AD offspring, negative correlations existed over small regions of the superior temporal, insula and lingual cortices. These results suggest that as AD offspring age, cortical atrophy is more prominent, particularly if the parent with AD is mother or if the AD offspring is female. PMID:22503937

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

PubMed

McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2013-12-01

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gestational age-dependent risk factors for preterm birth: associations with maternal education and age early in gestation.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Wynant, Willy; Lo, Ernest

2014-05-01

Preterm birth (PTB) before 37 weeks can occur over a wide range of gestational ages, but few studies have assessed if associations between risk factors and PTB vary over the duration of gestation. We sought to evaluate if associations between two major risk factors (maternal education and age) and PTB depend on gestational age at delivery. We estimated hazard ratios of PTB for education and age in a time-to-event analysis using a retrospective cohort of 223,756 live singleton births from the province of Québec, Canada for the years 2001-2005. Differences in hazards of maternal education and age with PTB were assessed over gestational age in a Cox proportional hazards model using linear and nonlinear time interaction terms, adjusting for maternal characteristics. Associations of PTB with lower (vs. higher) education and older (vs. younger) age strengthened progressively at earlier gestational ages, such that the risk of PTB for maternal education and age was not constant over the course of gestation. Associations of PTB with risk factors such as maternal low education and older age may be stronger early in gestation. Models that capture the time-dependent nature of PTB may be useful when the goal is to assess associations at low gestational ages, and to avoid masked or biased associations early in gestation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

PubMed

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

[Family characteristics, organic risk factors, psychopathological picture and premorbid adjustment of hospitalized adolescent patients].

PubMed

Małkiewicz-Borkowska, M; Namysłowska, I; Siewierska, A; Puzyńska, E; Sredniawa, H; Zechowski, C; Iwanek, A; Ruszkowska, E

1996-01-01

The relation of some family characteristics such as cohesion and adaptability with organic risk factors, developmental psychopathology, clinical picture and premorbid adjustment was assessed in the group of 100 hospitalized adolescent patients and families. We found correlation between: some of organic risk factors (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood), some of indicators of developmental psychopathology (eating disorders, conduct disorders), some of clinical signs (mannerism, grandiosity, hostility, suspciousness, disturbances of content of thinking), premorbid adjustment, and variables related to families, described before. We think that biological variables characterizing child (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood) have an influence on some family characteristics as independent variable. General system theory and circular thinking support these conclusions. In order to verify them, it is necessary to undertake further investigations, based on other methodology, using this results as preliminary findings.

Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

PubMed

Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

2000-02-01

In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

Nature Versus Nurture: Does Proteostasis Imbalance Underlie the Genetic, Environmental, and Age-Related Risk Factors for Alzheimer's Disease?

PubMed

Kikis, Elise A

2017-08-22

Aging is a risk factor for a number of "age-related diseases", including Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD affects more than a third of all people over the age of 85, and is the leading cause of dementia worldwide. Symptoms include forgetfulness, memory loss, and cognitive decline, ultimately resulting in the need for full-time care. While there is no cure for AD, pharmacological approaches to alleviate symptoms and target underlying causes of the disease have been developed, albeit with limited success. This review presents the age-related, genetic, and environmental risk factors for AD and proposes a hypothesis for the mechanistic link between genetics and the environment. In short, much is known about the genetics of early-onset familial AD (EO-FAD) and the central role played by the Aβ peptide and protein misfolding, but late-onset AD (LOAD) is not thought to have direct genetic causes. Nonetheless, genetic risk factors such as isoforms of the protein ApoE have been identified. Additional findings suggest that air pollution caused by the combustion of fossil fuels may be an important environmental risk factor for AD. A hypothesis suggesting that poor air quality might act by disrupting protein folding homeostasis (proteostasis) is presented.

A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

2016-01-06

Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

Mentally stimulating activities at work during midlife and dementia risk after age 75: follow-up study from the Kungsholmen Project.

PubMed

Karp, Anita; Andel, Ross; Parker, Marti G; Wang, Hui-Xin; Winblad, Bengt; Fratiglioni, Laura

2009-03-01

Previous research has suggested that mental stimulation in different life periods may protect against dementia or delay disease onset. This study aimed to explore the association between work complexity factors at midlife and dementia risk in late life under the hypothesis that high work complexity may modulate the increased dementia risk due to low education. Population-based follow-up study. Urban. A cohort of 931 nondemented subjects, aged 75+ years from the Kungsholmen Project, Stockholm, examined twice over 6 years. Incident dementia cases were identified using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd-Edition Revised criteria. Primary occupations were assigned into categories according to the Nordic Occupational Classification and matched to the 1970 U.S. Census to score the level of work complexity with data, people, and things by using a preformed matrix. Lower dementia risk was associated with complexity of work with both data (age and gender adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75-0.95) and with people (aRR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97). Adjusting for education led to similar results, although no longer statistically significant. Further, the highest degrees of complexity of work with data that involves analyzing, coordinating, and synthesizing data were associated with lower dementia risk even among lower educated subjects (relative risk: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.95). No gender differences were detected. This study suggests that work complexity with data and people is related to lower risk of dementia and that the highest levels of work complexity may modulate the higher dementia risk due to low education.

Adjusted poor weight gain for birth weight and gestational age as a predictor of severe ROP in VLBW infants.

PubMed

Aydemir, O; Sarikabadayi, Y U; Aydemir, C; Tunay, Z O; Tok, L; Erdeve, O; Oguz, S S; Uras, N; Dilmen, U

2011-06-01

To analyze relative weight gain by 2-week intervals up to 6 weeks after birth in order to predict the development of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) requiring treatment among very low birth weight (BW) infants. A prospective study including infants with BW ≤1500 g born in a single tertiary intensive care unit over 1-year period was conducted. Body weight measurements were recorded weekly and relative weight gains (g/kg/day) were calculated. The main outcome was development of ROP requiring treatment. Mean BW and gestational age (GA) of the whole cohort were 1165±223 g and 29.3±2.3 weeks, respectively. Relative weight gain at 2 weeks and 4 weeks postnatal age were significantly lower in infants with severe ROP (P=0.041 and P=0.017, respectively). Relative weight gain at 6 weeks was not different between groups. Infants with severe ROP gained 6.7±4 g/kg/day in the first 4 weeks of life, compared with 9.3±4.5 g/kg/day for those with mild or no ROP. After adjusted for BW and GA in logistic regression poor relative weight gain in the first 4 weeks was found to be related to severe ROP (P=0.015). When all the other risk factors significant for severe ROP were included in the logistic regression poor weight gain did not arise as an independent risk factor. Poor postnatal weight gain in the first 4 weeks of life is the end result of several comorbidities rather than being an independent risk factor. Poor weight gain can be an additional predictor of severe ROP in very low BW infants.

The risk of cataract in relation to metal arc welding.

PubMed

Slagor, Rebekka Michaelsen; La Cour, Morten; Bonde, Jens Peter

2016-09-01

There are indications that solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) increases the risk of cataract, but there is only circumstantial evidence that metal welding, an important occupational source of UVR exposure, is a risk factor. The objective of this study is to unravel if metal welding increases the risk of cataract. We compared the risk of being diagnosed with cataract from 1987-2012 in a historic cohort of 4288 male metal arc welders against a reference group comprised of Danish skilled and unskilled male workers with similar age distribution. For the welders' cohort, information on welding was collected from questionnaires and, for both cohorts, information about cataract diagnosis and operation was gathered from Danish national registers. Using Cox regression analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) for cataract diagnosis and/or operation was calculated in the follow-up period adjusted for baseline data regarding age, diabetes, and social group. There were 266 welders and 29 007 referents with a diagnosis and/or operation for cataract. The unadjusted HR for cataract comparing ever-welders with referents was 1.07 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.95-1.21] and the adjusted HR was 1.08 (95% CI 0.95-1.22). Age and diabetes were as expected strong risk factors. We found no increased risk of developing cataract among Danish metal welders who worked with arc welding from 1950-1985. This may be attributed to the effectiveness of personal safety equipment.

[Risk factors of small for the gestational age neonates in a hospital of Lima, Peru].

PubMed

Tejeda-Mariaca, J Eduardo; Pizango-Mallqui, Orion; Alburquerque-Duglio, Miguel; Mayta-Tristán, Percy

2015-01-01

Identify risk factors for at-term small for gestational age newborns. Retrospective cohort study using data from the Maternal Perinatal Information System of the Maria Auxiliadora Hospital of Lima, from the period 2000-2010. Maternal age, parity, education level, marital status, pregestational body mass index, number of prenatal care visits, presence of conditions such as preeclampsia, eclampsia, urinary tract infection and gestational diabetes as risk factors in small for gestational age newborns were evaluated. The weight for gestational age was calculated based on Peruvian percentiles. Crude relative risk (RR) and adjusted (ARR) were calculated with confidence intervals of 95% using log-binomial generalized linear models. 64,670 pregnant women were included. The incidence for small for gestational age was 7.2%. Preeclampsia (ARR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.86 to 2.15), eclampsia (ARR 3.22, 95% CI: 2.38 to 4.35), low maternal weight (ARR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.54), nulliparity (ARR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.42), age ≥35 years (ARR 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04 -1.29), having prenatal care visits from 0 to 2 (ARR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.32 to 1.55) and 3 to 5 (ARR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.32) were risk factors for small for gestational age. It is necessary to identify pregnant women with risk factors such as those found to decrease the condition of small for gestational age. Actions should emphasize modifiable factors, such as the frequency of prenatal care visits.

Birthweight, parental age, birth order and breast cancer risk in African-American and white women: a population-based case–control study

PubMed Central

Hodgson, M Elizabeth; Newman, Beth; Millikan, Robert C

2004-01-01

Introduction Much recent work has focused on hypotheses that very early life exposures influence adult cancer risk. For breast cancer it has been hypothesized that high in utero estrogen exposure may increase risk. Methods We used data from the Carolina Breast Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study of incident breast cancer in North Carolina, to examine associations for three possible surrogates of high prenatal estrogen exposure: weight at birth, maternal age, and birth order. We also examined paternal age. Birthweight analyses were conducted for white and African-American women born in North Carolina on or after 1949 (196 cases, 167 controls). Maternal age was analyzed for US born participants younger than 49 years of age (280 cases, 236 controls). Results There was a weak inverse association between birthweight in the highest tertile and breast cancer overall (odds ratio [OR] 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4–1.2), although associations differed by race (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2–1.0, and OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.5–2.1 for African-American and white women, respectively). For maternal age there was an approximately threefold increase in risk in women whose mothers were older than 22 years of age, relative to 19–22 years of age, when the women were born. After adjustment for maternal age, older paternal age increased risk in the oldest and youngest age categories (relative to 23–27 years of age at the woman's birth: OR 1.6, 95% CI 0.8–3.1 for age 15–22 years; OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7–2.2 for age 28–34 years; and OR 1.5, 95% CI 0.7–3.2 for age 35–56 years). There was no association with older paternal age for white women alone. After adjustment for maternal age (265 cases, 224 controls), a birth order of fifth or higher relative to first had an inverse association with breast cancer for women younger than 49 years old (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.3–1.3). Conclusion Although the CIs are wide, these results lend support to the possibility that the prenatal

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid

PubMed Central

Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-01-01

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment. PMID:29084621

Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid.

PubMed

Bartlett, Michael J; Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

2017-10-31

In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment.

Neonatal Pain-Related Stress Predicts Cortical Thickness at Age 7 Years in Children Born Very Preterm

PubMed Central

Ranger, Manon; Chau, Cecil M. Y.; Garg, Amanmeet; Woodward, Todd S.; Beg, Mirza Faisal; Bjornson, Bruce; Poskitt, Kenneth; Fitzpatrick, Kevin; Synnes, Anne R.; Miller, Steven P.; Grunau, Ruth E.

2013-01-01

Background Altered brain development is evident in children born very preterm (24–32 weeks gestational age), including reduction in gray and white matter volumes, and thinner cortex, from infancy to adolescence compared to term-born peers. However, many questions remain regarding the etiology. Infants born very preterm are exposed to repeated procedural pain-related stress during a period of very rapid brain development. In this vulnerable population, we have previously found that neonatal pain-related stress is associated with atypical brain development from birth to term-equivalent age. Our present aim was to evaluate whether neonatal pain-related stress (adjusted for clinical confounders of prematurity) is associated with altered cortical thickness in very preterm children at school age. Methods 42 right-handed children born very preterm (24–32 weeks gestational age) followed longitudinally from birth underwent 3-D T1 MRI neuroimaging at mean age 7.9 yrs. Children with severe brain injury and major motor/sensory/cognitive impairment were excluded. Regional cortical thickness was calculated using custom developed software utilizing FreeSurfer segmentation data. The association between neonatal pain-related stress (defined as the number of skin-breaking procedures) accounting for clinical confounders (gestational age, illness severity, infection, mechanical ventilation, surgeries, and morphine exposure), was examined in relation to cortical thickness using constrained principal component analysis followed by generalized linear modeling. Results After correcting for multiple comparisons and adjusting for neonatal clinical factors, greater neonatal pain-related stress was associated with significantly thinner cortex in 21/66 cerebral regions (p-values ranged from 0.00001 to 0.014), predominately in the frontal and parietal lobes. Conclusions In very preterm children without major sensory, motor or cognitive impairments, neonatal pain-related stress appears to be

A new prognostic score for AIDS-related lymphomas in the rituximab-era

PubMed Central

Barta, Stefan K.; Xue, Xiaonan; Wang, Dan; Lee, Jeannette Y.; Kaplan, Lawrence D.; Ribera, Josep-Maria; Oriol, Albert; Spina, Michele; Tirelli, Umberto; Boue, Francois; Wilson, Wyndham H.; Wyen, Christoph; Dunleavy, Kieron; Noy, Ariela; Sparano, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

While the International Prognostic Index is commonly used to predict outcomes in immunocompetent patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas, HIV-infection is an important competing risk for death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We investigated whether a newly created prognostic score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) could better assess risk of death in patients with AIDS-related lymphomas. We randomly divided a dataset of 487 patients newly diagnosed with AIDS-related lymphomas and treated with rituximab-containing chemoimmunotherapy into a training (n=244) and validation (n=243) set. We examined the association of HIV-related and other known risk factors with overall survival in both sets independently. We defined a new score (AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index) by assigning weights to each significant predictor [age-adjusted International Prognostic Index, extranodal sites, HIV-score (composed of CD4 count, viral load, and prior history of AIDS)] with three risk categories similar to the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (low, intermediate and high risk). We compared the prognostic value for overall survival between AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index and age-adjusted International Prognostic Index in the validation set and found that the AIDS-related lymphoma International Prognostic Index performed significantly better in predicting risk of death than the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (P=0.004) and better discriminated risk of death between each risk category (P=0.015 vs. P=0.13). Twenty-eight percent of patients were defined as low risk by the ARL-IPI and had an estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) of 78% (52% intermediate risk, 5-year OS 60%; 20% high risk, 5-year OS 50%). PMID:25150257

Joint Associations of Diet, Lifestyle, and Genes with Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Meyers, Kristin J; Liu, Zhe; Millen, Amy E; Iyengar, Sudha K; Blodi, Barbara A; Johnson, Elizabeth; Snodderly, D Max; Klein, Michael L; Gehrs, Karen M; Tinker, Lesley; Sarto, Gloria E; Robinson, Jennifer; Wallace, Robert B; Mares, Julie A

2015-11-01

Unhealthy lifestyles have been associated with increased odds for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Whether this association is modified by genetic risk for AMD is unknown and was investigated. Interactions between healthy lifestyles AMD risk genotypes were studied in relation to the prevalence of AMD, assessed 6 years later. Women 50 to 79 years of age in the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study with exposure and AMD data (n=1663). Healthy lifestyle scores (0-6 points) were assigned based on Healthy Eating Index scores, physical activity (metabolic equivalent of task hours/week), and smoking pack years assessed in 1994 and 1998. Genetic risk was based on Y402H in complement factor H (CFH) and A69S in age-related maculopathy susceptibility locus 2 (ARMS2). Additive and multiplicative interactions in odds ratios were assessed using the synergy index and a multiplicative interaction term, respectively. AMD presence and severity were assessed from grading of stereoscopic fundus photographs taken in 2001-2004. AMD was present in 337 women, 91% of whom had early AMD. The odds of AMD were 3.3 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-6.1) in women with both low healthy lifestyle score (0-2) and high-risk CFH genotype (CC), relative to those who had low genetic risk (TT) and high healthy lifestyle scores (4-6). There were no significant additive (synergy index [SI], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.70-1.67) or multiplicative (Pinteraction=0.94) interactions in the full sample. However, when limiting the sample to women with stable diets before AMD assessment (n=728) the odds for AMD associated with low healthy lifestyle scores and high-risk CFH genotype were strengthened (odds ratio, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.8-11.6) and the synergy index was significant (SI, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05-1.70). Adjusting for dietary lutein and zeaxanthin attenuated, and therefore partially explained, the joint association. There were no significant additive or multiplicative interactions for ARMS2 and

Strength training in the elderly: effects on risk factors for age-related diseases.

PubMed

Hurley, B F; Roth, S M

2000-10-01

Strength training (ST) is considered a promising intervention for reversing the loss of muscle function and the deterioration of muscle structure that is associated with advanced age. This reversal is thought to result in improvements in functional abilities and health status in the elderly by increasing muscle mass, strength and power and by increasing bone mineral density (BMD). In the past couple of decades, many studies have examined the effects of ST on risk factors for age-related diseases or disabilities. Collectively, these studies indicate that ST in the elderly: (i) is an effective intervention against sarcopenia because it produces substantial increases in the strength, mass, power and quality of skeletal muscle; (ii) can increase endurance performance; (iii) normalises blood pressure in those with high normal values; (iv) reduces insulin resistance; (v) decreases both total and intra-abdominal fat; (vi) increases resting metabolic rate in older men; (vii) prevents the loss of BMD with age; (viii) reduces risk factors for falls; and (ix) may reduce pain and improve function in those with osteoarthritis in the knee region. However, contrary to popular belief, ST does not increase maximal oxygen uptake beyond normal variations, improve lipoprotein or lipid profiles, or improve flexibility in the elderly.

Young Children’s Adjustment as a Function of Maltreatment, Shame, and Anger

PubMed Central

Bennett, David S.; Sullivan, Margaret Wolan; Lewis, Michael

2007-01-01

Maltreated children are at increased risk for behavior problems. This study examines a model in which shame mediates the potential relation between maltreatment and anger, and anger mediates the potential relation between shame and behavior problems. Participants were 177 children (ages 3 to 7 years) and their mothers, 90 of whom had histories of perpetrating neglect and/or physical abuse. Physical abuse, but not neglect, was related to increased shame during an evaluative task; shame was related to increased anger; and anger to teacher ratings of total behavior problems and externalizing problems. Age moderated the relation between physical abuse and adjustment, as abuse was related to more total problems only among the younger children. Anger was a significant mediator of shame and both behavior problems and externalizing problems. Shame, anger, age, and type of maltreatment appear to be important factors in explaining variance in behavioral adjustment following a history of maltreatment. PMID:16204734

The Relation of Age, Gender, Ethnicity, and Risk Behaviors to Self-Esteem among Students in Nonmainstream Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connor, Jennifer M.; Poyrazli, Senel; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Grahame, Kamini Maraj

2004-01-01

This cross-sectional study investigated self-esteem in relation to age, gender, ethnicity, and risk behaviors among a sample of nonmainstream students. Participants were 149 students in the 6th to 12th grades from two non-mainstream schools (one charter and one alternative school). Self-esteem and youth risk behaviors were determined by using a…

Socioeconomic status inconsistency and risk of stroke among Japanese middle-aged women.

PubMed

Honjo, Kaori; Iso, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Manami; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2014-09-01

Little research has been conducted to examine the effect of inconsistencies in socioeconomic status on cardiovascular health. In particular, no studies have been reported in Asian countries, including Japan, which is thought to have high socioeconomic status inconsistency among women. We examined the effect of status inconsistency between education level and occupation on stroke risk in a prospective 20-year study of 14 742 middle-aged Japanese women included in the prospective Japan Public Health Center-based (JPHC) Study Cohort I in 1990. Status inconsistency between education level and occupation was determined (qualified, overqualified, and underqualified), and the association with risk of stroke was examined. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to determine hazard ratios, which were adjusted for age, marital status, and geographical area. Adjusted hazard ratio for stroke in overqualified compared with qualified women was 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-3.78). Adjusted hazard ratios for stroke among highly educated manual workers and workers in service industry were 3.47 (95% confidence interval, 1.54-7.84) and 3.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.49-6.90), respectively, when compared with highly educated professionals/managers. High academic qualifications without an appropriate job could be a risk factor for stroke among Japanese women. Our result suggests that status inconsistency could be a potential explanation for the increased stroke risk among highly educated women. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Occupational exposure and ovarian cancer risk.

PubMed

Le, Nhu D; Leung, Andy; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Gallagher, Richard P; Swenerton, Kenneth D; Demers, Paul A; Cook, Linda S

2014-07-01

Relatively little work has been done concerning occupational risk factors in ovarian cancer. Although studies conducted in occupational settings have reported positive associations, their usefulness is generally limited by the lack of information on important confounders. In a population-based case-control study, we assessed risk for developing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) associated with occupational exposure while accounting for important confounders. Participants were identified through provincial population-based registries. Lifetime occupational history and information on potential confounding factors were obtained through a self-administered questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression and the likelihood ratio test were used to assess EOC risk with each occupation (or industry), relative to all other occupations (or industries), adjusting for potential confounders including body mass index, oral contraceptive use, menopausal hormone therapy, parity, age at first childbirth, age at menarche, age at menopause, family history of breast and ovarian cancer in mother and sister(s), tubal ligation, partial oophorectomy, and hysterectomy. Occupations and industries were coded according to the Canadian Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Significant excess risk was observed for several groups of teaching occupations, including SOC 27, teaching and related (adjusted OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.81) and SOC 279, other teaching and related (adjusted OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.35-8.49). Significant excess was also seen for a four-digit occupational group SOC 4131, bookkeepers and accounting clerks (adjusted OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.30-6.80). Industrial sub-groups showing significant excess risk included SIC 65, other retail stores (adjusted OR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.16-4.38); SIC 85, educational service (adjusted OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.00-2.13); and SIC 863, non-institutional health services (adjusted OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.13-6.52). Our study found

Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation: Comparing Strengths of Associations for Risk Factors Measured on Different Scales and Across Diseases and Populations

PubMed Central

Hopper, John L.

2015-01-01

How can the “strengths” of risk factors, in the sense of how well they discriminate cases from controls, be compared when they are measured on different scales such as continuous, binary, and integer? Given that risk estimates take into account other fitted and design-related factors—and that is how risk gradients are interpreted—so should the presentation of risk gradients. Therefore, for each risk factor X0, I propose using appropriate regression techniques to derive from appropriate population data the best fitting relationship between the mean of X0 and all the other covariates fitted in the model or adjusted for by design (X1, X2, … , Xn). The odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) presents the risk association for X0 in terms of the change in risk per s = standard deviation of X0 adjusted for X1, X2, … , Xn, rather than the unadjusted standard deviation of X0 itself. If the increased risk is relative risk (RR)-fold over A adjusted standard deviations, then OPERA = exp[ln(RR)/A] = RRs. This unifying approach is illustrated by considering breast cancer and published risk estimates. OPERA estimates are by definition independent and can be used to compare the predictive strengths of risk factors across diseases and populations. PMID:26520360

Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Maczuga, Steven

2009-01-01

We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk…

Telomere Length and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: Insights into the Role of Biological versus Chronological Aging

PubMed Central

Roberts, Jason D.; Dewland, Thomas A.; Longoria, James; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Ziv, Elad; Hu, Donglei; Lin, Jue; Glidden, David V.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Burchard, Esteban G.; Blackburn, Elizabeth H.; Olgin, Jeffrey E.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Marcus, Gregory M.

2014-01-01

Background Advanced age is the most important risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), however the mechanism remains unknown. Telomeres, regions of DNA that shorten with cell division, are considered reliable markers of biological aging. We sought to examine the association between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and incident AF in a large population-based cohort using direct LTL measurements and genetic data. To further explore our findings, we compared atrial cell telomere length (ATL) and LTL in cardiac surgery patients. Methods and Results Mean LTL and the TERT rs2736100 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were assessed as predictors of incident AF in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Among the surgical patients, within subject comparison of ATL versus LTL was assessed. Among 1639 CHS participants, we observed no relationship between mean LTL and incident AF prior to and after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.09; 95% CI: 0.92–1.29, p=0.299); chronologic age remained strongly associated with AF in the same model. No association was observed between the TERT rs2736100 SNP and incident AF (adjusted HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88–1.04, p=0.265). In 35 cardiac surgery patients (26 with AF), ATL was longer than LTL (1.19 ± 0.20 versus 1.02 ± 0.25 [T/S ratio], p< 0.001), a finding that remained consistent within the AF subgroup. Conclusions Our study revealed no evidence of an association between LTL and incident AF and no evidence of relative atrial cell telomere shortening in AF. Chronological aging independent of biological markers of aging is the primary risk factor for AF. PMID:25381796

Advanced age, anticoagulation intensity, and risk for intracranial hemorrhage among patients taking warfarin for atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Fang, Margaret C; Chang, Yuchiao; Hylek, Elaine M; Rosand, Jonathan; Greenberg, Steven M; Go, Alan S; Singer, Daniel E

2004-11-16

The risk for atrial fibrillation-associated stroke increases at low anticoagulation intensities. However, higher intensities increase hemorrhage risk. Optimal use of warfarin for atrial fibrillation requires precise information on the risk for intracranial hemorrhage as a function of patient age and anticoagulation intensity. To examine the relationship of age, anticoagulation intensity, and risk for intracranial hemorrhage. Case-control study. Academic medical center. 170 case-patients who developed intracranial hemorrhage during warfarin therapy and 1020 matched controls who did not; both case-patients and controls were taking warfarin for atrial fibrillation. The authors performed multivariable conditional logistic regression to determine the odds of intracranial hemorrhage with regard to age and international normalized ratio (INR), controlling for comorbid conditions and aspirin use. Case-patients were older than controls (median age, 78 years vs. 75 years; P < 0.001) and had higher median INRs (2.7 vs. 2.3; P < 0.001). The risk for intracranial hemorrhage increased at 85 years of age or older (adjusted odds ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.3 to 4.7]; referent age, 70 to 74 years) and at an INR range of 3.5 to 3.9 (adjusted odds ratio, 4.6 [CI, 2.3 to 9.4]; referent INR, 2.0 to 3.0). The risk for intracranial hemorrhage at INRs less than 2.0 did not differ statistically from the risk at INRs of 2.0 to 3.0 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.3 [CI, 0.8 to 2.2]). Although duration of anticoagulation has been associated with hemorrhage in other studies, the current study could not control for this potential confounder. The risk for intracranial hemorrhage increases at age 85 years. International normalized ratios less than 2.0 were not associated with lower risk for intracranial hemorrhage compared with INRs between 2.0 and 3.0. Therefore, anticoagulation management should focus on maintaining INRs in the 2.0 to 3.0 range, even in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation, rather than

Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases.

PubMed

Pinsent, Amy; Read, Jonathan M; Griffin, Jamie T; Smith, Valerie; Gething, Peter W; Ghani, Azra C; Pasvol, Geoffrey; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

2014-08-04

An increasing proportion of malaria cases diagnosed in UK residents with a history of travel to malaria endemic areas are due to Plasmodium falciparum. In order to identify travellers at most risk of acquiring malaria a proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of acquiring malaria stratified by purpose of travel and age whilst adjusting for entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and duration of stay in endemic countries. Travellers visiting friends and relatives and business travellers were found to have significantly higher hazard of acquiring malaria (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) relative to that of holiday makers 7.4, 95% CI 6.4-8.5, p < 0. 0001 and HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.9-3.8, p < 0. 0001, respectively). All age-groups were at lower risk than children aged 0-15 years. These estimates of the increased risk for business travellers and those visiting friends and relatives should be used to inform programmes to improve awareness of the risks of malaria when travelling.

Cognitively normal individuals with AD parents may be at risk for developing aging-related cortical thinning patterns characteristic of AD.

PubMed

Reiter, Katherine; Alpert, Kathryn I; Cobia, Derin J; Kwasny, Mary J; Morris, John C; Csernansky, John C; Wang, Lei

2012-07-02

Children of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients are at heightened risk of developing AD due to genetic influences, including the apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) allele. In this study, we assessed the earliest cortical changes associated with AD in 71 cognitively healthy, adult children of AD patients (AD offspring) as compared with 69 with no family history of AD (non-AD offspring). Cortical thickness measures were obtained using FreeSurfer from 1.5T magnetic resonance (MR) scans. ApoE genotyping was obtained. Primary analyses examined family history and ApoeE4 effects on cortical thickness. Secondary analyses examined age effects within groups. All comparisons were adjusted using False Discovery Rate at a significance threshold of p<0.05. There were no statistically significant differences between family history and ApoE4 groups. Within AD offspring, increasing age was related to reduced cortical thickness (atrophy) over large areas of the precuneus, superior frontal and superior temporal gyri, starting at around age 60. Further, these patterns existed within female and maternal AD offspring, but were absent in male and paternal AD offspring. Within non-AD offspring, negative correlations existed over small regions of the superior temporal, insula and lingual cortices. These results suggest that as AD offspring age, cortical atrophy is more prominent, particularly if the parent with AD is mother or if the AD offspring is female. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

77 FR 21775 - Risk Adjustment Meeting-May 7, 2012 and May 8, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-11

... notice announces a meeting on the risk adjustment program, which is open to the public. The purpose of... plan average actuarial risk, calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the..., calculation of payments and charges, data collection approach, and the schedule for running risk adjustment...

Childhood socio-economic position and risk of coronary heart disease in middle age: a study of 49,321 male conscripts.

PubMed

Falkstedt, Daniel; Lundberg, Ingvar; Hemmingsson, Tomas

2011-12-01

Poor social circumstances in childhood are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). In previous studies, social circumstances and risk factors in adulthood have been suggested to explain this association. In the present study, we included potential explanatory factors from childhood and adolescence. We investigated the association between childhood socio-economic position (SEP) and CHD in middle age among 49,321 Swedish males, born during 1949-51, who were conscripted for military service at 18-20 years of age. Register-based data on childhood social circumstances, educational attainment and occupational class in adulthood were used in combination with information on cognitive ability, smoking, body mass index and body height in late adolescence obtained from a compulsory conscription examination. Incidence of CHD from 1991 to 2007 (between 40 and 58 years of age) was followed in national registers. We demonstrated an inverse association between childhood SEP and CHD in middle age: among men with the lowest childhood SEP the crude hazard ratio of CHD was 1.47 (95% CI = 1.30-1.67). Adjustment for crowded housing in childhood, body height, cognitive ability, smoking and BMI in late adolescence attenuated relative risks of CHD considerably. Additional adjustment for educational level had a further, although limited, attenuating effect on associations, but additional adjustment for occupational class had no such effect. Results showed that social, cognitive and behavioural factors evident prior to adulthood may be of greater importance in explaining the association between childhood SEP and CHD later in life than socio-economic indicators in adulthood.

Childhood Cigarette and Alcohol Use: Negative Links with Adjustment

PubMed Central

Staff, Jeremy; Maggs, Jennifer; Cundiff, Kelsey; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J.

2016-01-01

Children who initiate cigarette or alcohol use early—during childhood or early adolescence—experience a heightened risk of nicotine and alcohol dependence in later life as well as school failure, crime, injury, and mortality. Using prospective intergenerational data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), we investigate the association between early substance use initiation (cigarettes or alcohol) and age 11 school engagement, academic achievement, and wellbeing. The ongoing MCS tracks the development of a nationally representative sample of children in the United Kingdom (born 2000–2002) from infancy through adolescence. At age 11, MCS children (n=13,221) indicated whether they had ever used cigarettes or alcohol; at age 7 and 11 they reported on school engagement and wellbeing and completed investigator-assessed tests of academic achievement. Using propensity score methods, children who had initiated cigarette or alcohol use by age 11 were matched to abstaining children with similar risks (or propensities) of early substance use, based on numerous early life risk and protective factors assessed from infancy to age 7. We then examined whether early initiators differed from non-initiators in age 11 adjustment and achievement. Results show that substance use by age 11 was uncommon (3% cigarettes; 13% alcohol). After matching for propensity for early initiation, school engagement and wellbeing were significantly lower among initiators compared to non-initiators. Academic achievement was not consistently related to early initiation. We conclude that initiation of smoking and drinking in childhood is associated with poorer adjustment. PMID:27347653

The association between statin use and risk of age-related macular degeneration

PubMed Central

Ma, Le; Wang, Yafeng; Du, Junhui; Wang, Mingxu; Zhang, Rui; Fu, Yihao

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between statin use and the risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). A systematic search of the PubMed, EMBASE and ISI web of science databases was used to identify eligible published literatures without language restrictions up to April 2015. Summary relative ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using a fixed-effect or random-effects model. A total of 14 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. No significant association was observed between statin use and the risk of any AMD (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.74–1.15); and stratified analysis showed that statins had a significantly different effects on early and late stages of AMD. For early AMD, statin use significantly reduced the risk approximately 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.66–0.99). At the late stage, we observed a significant protective association of statin use with exudative AMD (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80–0.99), in contrast with the absent association between statins and geographic atrophy (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77–1.56). These results demonstrated that statin use was protective for early and exudative AMD. Additional large prospective cohort studies and RCTs are required to determine the potential effect of statins on AMD prevention. PMID:26658620

Clinical Trials Targeting Aging and Age-Related Multimorbidity

PubMed Central

Crimmins, Eileen M; Grossardt, Brandon R; Crandall, Jill P; Gelfond, Jonathan A L; Harris, Tamara B; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Manson, JoAnn E; Robinson, Jennifer G; Rocca, Walter A; Temprosa, Marinella; Thomas, Fridtjof; Wallace, Robert; Barzilai, Nir

2017-01-01

Abstract Background There is growing interest in identifying interventions that may increase health span by targeting biological processes underlying aging. The design of efficient and rigorous clinical trials to assess these interventions requires careful consideration of eligibility criteria, outcomes, sample size, and monitoring plans. Methods Experienced geriatrics researchers and clinical trialists collaborated to provide advice on clinical trial design. Results Outcomes based on the accumulation and incidence of age-related chronic diseases are attractive for clinical trials targeting aging. Accumulation and incidence rates of multimorbidity outcomes were developed by selecting at-risk subsets of individuals from three large cohort studies of older individuals. These provide representative benchmark data for decisions on eligibility, duration, and assessment protocols. Monitoring rules should be sensitive to targeting aging-related, rather than disease-specific, outcomes. Conclusions Clinical trials targeting aging are feasible, but require careful design consideration and monitoring rules. PMID:28364543

Age-related impairments of mobility associated with cobalt and other heavy metals: Data from NHANES 1999-2004

PubMed Central

Lang, Iain A; Scarlett, Alan; Guralnik, Jack; Depledge, Michael H; Melzer, David; Galloway, Tamara S

2012-01-01

Introduction Exposure to heavy metals can promote oxidative stress and damage to cellular components, and may accelerate age-related disease and disability.. Physical mobility is a validated biomarker of age-related disability and is predictive of hospitalization and mortality. Aim To examine associations between selected heavy metals and impaired lower limb mobility in a representative older human population. Methods Data for 1615 adults aged ≥60 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2004 were used to identify associations between urinary concentrations of 10 metals with self-reported and measured walking impairments (at p<0.01). Models were adjusted for confounding factors, including smoking. Results In models adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, elevated levels of cadmium, cobalt and uranium were associated with impairment of the ability to walk a quarter mile. In fully adjusted models, cobalt was the only metal that remained associated: the odds ratio for reporting walking problems with a 1-unit increase in logged cobalt concentration (μg L-1) was 1.43 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.84). Cobalt was also the only metal associated with an increased measured time to walk a 20 foot course (p=0.008). In analyses of disease categories to explain the mobility finding, cobalt was associated with physician diagnosed arthritis (1-unit increase OR=1.22 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.49, p=0.045). Conclusions Low level cobalt exposure, assessed through urinary concentrations of this essential heavy metal may be a risk factor for age-related physical impairments. Independent replication is needed to confirm this association. PMID:19199147

Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

PubMed

van Helden, Svenhjalmar; van Geel, Antonia C M; Geusens, Piet P; Kessels, Alfons; Nieuwenhuijzen Kruseman, Arie C; Brink, Peter R G

2008-02-01

Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of related risk factors were present irrespective of the fracture location, patient age, or gender. An overlap between bone and fall-related risk factors was found in 50% of the patients. After adjusting for age, weight, and height, we found that women with a fracture more frequently had a diagnosis of osteoporosis (odds ratio = 2.9; 95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 4.1) and had a more extensive history of falls (odds ratio = 4.0; 95% confidence interval = 2.7 to 5.9) than did the postmenopausal women without a fracture history. Men and women over fifty years of age who had recently sustained a clinical fracture had, at the time of that fracture, bone and fall-related risk factors that were greater than the risk predicted by

Is the Risk of Autism in Younger Siblings of Affected Children Moderated by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, or Gestational Age?

PubMed

Xie, Fagen; Peltier, Morgan; Getahun, Darios

2016-10-01

To evaluate the recurrence risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in younger siblings of affected children and determine how it is modified by race/ethnicity and sex. Medical records of children born in a large health maintenance organization (Kaiser Permanent Southern California) hospitals from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2010, and who remained in our system until 2 to 11 years of age were used to assess the risk of recurrence of ASD in younger siblings. Children born at <28 or >42 weeks gestation, multiple births, or those who were not active members for ≥3 months were excluded. ASD diagnosis was ascertained from DSM-IV codes, and the magnitude of the association was estimated using adjusted relative risks (aRRs). Among eligible younger siblings, 592 (1.11%) had the diagnosis of ASD. The ASD rates were 11.30% and 0.92% for younger siblings of older affected and unaffected siblings, respectively (aRR: 14.27; 95% confidence interval, 11.41-17.83). This association remained after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Race/ethnicity- and gestational age-specific analyses revealed a positive association of similar magnitude across groups. Risk remained higher in younger boys than girls regardless of the sex of affected older siblings. The findings of this study suggest that the risk of ASD in younger siblings is higher if the older sibling has ASD. The risk of ASD in younger siblings of older affected siblings was comparable across gestational age at birth and child's race/ethnicity groups. However, risk remains higher for boys. This study contributes to a better understanding of the influence of race/ethnicity, sex, and gestational age at birth in identifying children at higher risk of ASD.

A methodological approach to identify external factors for indicator-based risk adjustment illustrated by a cataract surgery register

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk adjustment is crucial for comparison of outcome in medical care. Knowledge of the external factors that impact measured outcome but that cannot be influenced by the physician is a prerequisite for this adjustment. To date, a universal and reproducible method for identification of the relevant external factors has not been published. The selection of external factors in current quality assurance programmes is mainly based on expert opinion. We propose and demonstrate a methodology for identification of external factors requiring risk adjustment of outcome indicators and we apply it to a cataract surgery register. Methods Defined test criteria to determine the relevance for risk adjustment are “clinical relevance” and “statistical significance”. Clinical relevance of the association is presumed when observed success rates of the indicator in the presence and absence of the external factor exceed a pre-specified range of 10%. Statistical significance of the association between the external factor and outcome indicators is assessed by univariate stratification and multivariate logistic regression adjustment. The cataract surgery register was set up as part of a German multi-centre register trial for out-patient cataract surgery in three high-volume surgical sites. A total of 14,924 patient follow-ups have been documented since 2005. Eight external factors potentially relevant for risk adjustment were related to the outcome indicators “refractive accuracy” and “visual rehabilitation” 2–5 weeks after surgery. Results The clinical relevance criterion confirmed 2 (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) external factors. The significance criterion was verified in two ways. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed almost identical external factors: 4 were related to “refractive accuracy” and 7 (6) to “visual rehabilitation”. Two (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) factors

Age-related risk factors for bacterial aetiology in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Sahuquillo-Arce, José M; Menéndez, Rosario; Méndez, Raúl; Amara-Elori, Isabel; Zalacain, Rafael; Capelastegui, Alberto; Aspa, Javier; Borderías, Luis; Martín-Villasclaras, Juan J; Bello, Salvador; Alfageme, Inmaculada; de Castro, Felipe Rodriguez; Rello, Jordi; Molinos, Luis; Ruiz-Manzano, Juan; Torres, Antoni

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of age and comorbidities, smoking and alcohol use on microorganisms in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective multicentre study was performed with 4304 patients. We compared microbiological results, bacterial aetiology, smoking, alcohol abuse and comorbidities in three age groups: young adults (<45 years), adults (45-64 years) and seniors (>65 years). Bacterial aetiology was identified in 1522 (35.4%) patients. In seniors, liver disease was independently associated with Gram-negative bacteria (Haemophilus influenzae and Enterobacteriaceae), COPD with Pseudomonas aeruginosa (OR = 2.69 (1.46-4.97)) and Staphylococcus aureus (OR = 2.8 (1.24-6.3)) and neurological diseases with S. aureus. In adults, diabetes mellitus (DM) was a risk factor for Streptococcus pneumoniae and S. aureus, and COPD for H. influenzae (OR = 3.39 (1.06-10.83)). In young adults, DM was associated with S. aureus. Smoking was a risk factor for Legionella pneumophila regardless of age. Alcohol intake was associated with mixed aetiology and Coxiella burnetii in seniors, and with S. pneumoniae in young adults. It should be considered that the bacterial aetiology may differ according to the patient's age, comorbidities, smoking and alcohol abuse. More extensive microbiological testing is warranted in those with risk factors for infrequent microorganisms. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

"When you get old like this … you don't run those risks anymore": influence of age on sexual risk behaviors and condom use attitudes among methamphetamine-using heterosexual women with a history of partner violence.

PubMed

Ludwig-Barron, Natasha; Wagner, Karla D; Syvertsen, Jennifer L; Ewald, Ivy J; Patterson, Thomas L; Semple, Shirley J; Stockman, Jamila K

2014-01-01

Drug use and partner violence affect older women, yet few studies highlight age-specific HIV risks and prevention strategies. This study compares sexual risk behaviors, condom use attitudes, and HIV knowledge between midlife/older women (ages 45+) and younger women (ages 18-44) reporting methamphetamine use and partner violence in San Diego, California. Our mixed methods study used themes from a qualitative substudy (n = 18) to inform logistic regression analysis of baseline data from an HIV behavioral intervention trial (n = 154). Age-related qualitative themes included physiologic determinants, HIV knowledge, and "dodging the bullet," referring to a lifetime of uncertainty surrounding HIV serostatus after engaging in unsafe drug and sex practices. Midlife/older age was associated with never being married (24.2% vs. 51.2; p = .03), having less than a high school education/GED (12.1% vs. 34.7%; p = .04), lower condom use self-efficacy (2.87 vs. 3.19; p = .03), lower positive outcome expectancies (1.9 vs. 2.1; p = .04), and lower HIV knowledge (85.3% vs. 89.7%; p = .04); however, sexual risk behaviors were not associated with age group. In the multivariate analysis, midlife/older age remained independently associated with lower condom use self-efficacy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27-0.87) and lower HIV knowledge (adjusted odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99). Midlife/older methamphetamine-using women with experiences of partner violence present similar sexual risk profiles, but possess different HIV-related knowledge and attitudes toward prevention methods compared with their younger counterparts. Clinicians and public health practitioners can have a positive impact on this overlooked population by assessing HIV risks during routine screenings, encouraging HIV testing, and providing age-appropriate HIV prevention education. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring risk-adjusted medical outcomes allowing for changes over time.

PubMed

Steiner, Stefan H; Mackay, R Jock

2014-10-01

We consider the problem of monitoring and comparing medical outcomes, such as surgical performance, over time. Performance is subject to change due to a variety of reasons including patient heterogeneity, learning, deteriorating skills due to aging, etc. For instance, we expect inexperienced surgeons to improve their skills with practice. We propose a graphical method to monitor surgical performance that incorporates risk adjustment to account for patient heterogeneity. The procedure gives more weight to recent outcomes and down-weights the influence of outcomes further in the past. The chart is clinically interpretable as it plots an estimate of the failure rate for a "standard" patient. The chart also includes a measure of uncertainty in this estimate. We can implement the method using historical data or start from scratch. As the monitoring proceeds, we can base the estimated failure rate on a known risk model or use the observed outcomes to update the risk model as time passes. We illustrate the proposed method with an example from cardiac surgery. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

45 CFR 153.630 - Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data validation requirements when HHS operates... Program § 153.630 Data validation requirements when HHS operates risk adjustment. (a) General requirement... performed on its risk adjustment data as described in this section. (b) Initial validation audit. (1) An...

An Online Tool for Global Benchmarking of Risk-Adjusted Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Spence, Richard T; Chang, David C; Chu, Kathryn; Panieri, Eugenio; Mueller, Jessica L; Hutter, Matthew M

2017-01-01

Increasing evidence demonstrates significant variation in adverse outcomes following surgery between countries. In order to better quantify these variations, we hypothesize that freely available online risk calculators can be used as a tool to generate global benchmarking of risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. This is a prospective cohort study conducted at an academic teaching hospital in South Africa (GSH). Consecutive adult patients undergoing major general or vascular surgery who met the ACS-NSQIP inclusion criteria for a 3-month period were included. Data variables required by the ACS risk calculator were prospectively collected, and patients were followed for 30 days post-surgery for the occurrence of endpoints. Calculating observed-to-expected ratios for ten outcome measures of interest generated risk-adjusted outcomes benchmarked against the ACS-NSQIP consortium. A total of 373 major general and vascular surgery procedures met the inclusion criteria. The GSH operative cohort varied significantly compared to the 2012 ACS-NSQIP database. The risk-adjusted O/E ratios were significant for any complication O/E 1.91 (95 % CI 1.57-2.31), surgical site infections O/E 4.76 (95 % CI 3.71-6.01), renal failure O/E 3.29 (95 % CI 1.50-6.24), death O/E 3.43 (95 % CI 2.19-5.11), and total length of stay (LOS) O/E 3.43 (95 % CI 2.19-5.11). Freely available online risk calculators can be utilized as tools for global benchmarking of risk-adjusted surgical outcomes.

Statin use and the incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration in the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial.

PubMed

Maguire, Maureen G; Ying, Gui-shuang; McCannel, Colin A; Liu, Chengcheng; Dai, Yang

2009-12-01

To evaluate the impact of statin use on the incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its components, choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and geographic atrophy (GA), among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter, randomized, clinical trial. Patients enrolled in the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial (CAPT). Eligibility criteria for the clinical trial required that participants have >or=10 large (>125 microm) drusen and visual acuity >or=20/40 in each eye. Patients scheduled for their final CAPT visit after May 2005 were interviewed on their history of use of cholesterol-lowering medications, including statins. Trained readers identified CNV and end point GA (>1 Macular Photocoagulation Study disc area of GA) based on review of fluorescein angiograms and fundus photographs taken at annual follow-up visits and when patients reported symptoms. The risk ratio for participants developing CNV or developing GA associated with statin use was estimated with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Development of advanced AMD, CNV, and end point GA. Among 764 patients eligible for the interview, 744 (97.4%) patients completed the interview on medication use. Statin use was reported by 296 (39.8%) of those interviewed, with the majority, 187 (63.2%) of the 296, beginning use after enrollment in CAPT. Among 744 patients, advanced AMD developed in 332 (22.5%) eyes of 242 (32.5%) patients, CNV in 222 (15%) eyes of 176 (23.7%) patients, and GA in 114 (7.7%) eyes of 80 (10.8%) patients. With adjustment for other risk factors, the estimated risk ratio for eyes (95% confidence interval) associated with statin use was 1.15 (0.87-1.52) for advanced AMD, 1.35 (0.99-1.83) for CNV, and 0.80 (0.46-1.39) for GA. The CAPT data are not consistent with a strong protective effect (risk ratio,

Vitamin D Status and Early Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Millen, Amy E.; Voland, Rick; Sondel, Sherie A.; Parekh, Niyati; Horst, Ronald L.; Wallace, Robert B.; Hageman, Gregory S.; Chappell, Rick; Blodi, Barbara A.; Klein, Michael L.; Gehrs, Karen M.; Sarto, Gloria E.; Mares, Julie A.

2010-01-01

Objective The relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations (nmol/L) and the prevalence of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) was investigated among participants of the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study. Methods Stereoscopic fundus photographs, taken from 2001–2004, assessed AMD status. Baseline (1994–1998) serum samples were available for 25(OH)D assays in 1,313 women with complete ocular and risk factor data. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for early AMD (n=241), among 1,287 without advanced disease, were estimated with logistic regression and adjusted for age, smoking, iris pigmentation, family history of AMD, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hormone therapy use. Results In multivariate models, no significant relationship was observed between early AMD and 25(OH)D (OR for quintile 5 vs. 1=0.79, 95% CI=0.50–1.24; p for trend=0.47). A significant age interaction (p=0.0025) suggested selective mortality bias in women ≥75 years: serum 25(OH)D was associated with decreased odds of early AMD in women <75 years (n=968) and increased odds in women ≥75 years (n=319) (OR for quintile 5 vs. 1=0.52, 95% CI=0.29–0.91; p for trend=0.02 and 1.76, 95% CI=0.77–4.13; p for trend=0.05, respectively). Further adjustment for body mass index and recreational physical activity, predictors of 25(OH)D, attenuated the observed association in women <75 years. Additionally, among women <75 years, intake of vitamin D from foods and supplements was related to decreased odds of early AMD in multivariate models; no relationship was observed with self-reported time spent in direct sunlight. Conclusions High serum 25(OH)D concentrations may protect against early AMD in women <75 years. PMID:21482873

Association between local inflammation and breast tissue age-related lobular involution among premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

Hanna, Mirette; Dumas, Isabelle; Orain, Michèle; Jacob, Simon; Têtu, Bernard; Sanschagrin, François; Bureau, Alexandre; Poirier, Brigitte; Diorio, Caroline

2017-01-01

Increased levels of pro-inflammatory markers and decreased levels of anti-inflammatory markers in the breast tissue can result in local inflammation. We aimed to investigate whether local inflammation in the breast tissue is associated with age-related lobular involution, a process inversely related to breast cancer risk. Levels of eleven pro- and anti-inflammatory markers were assessed by immunohistochemistry in normal breast tissue obtained from 164 pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer patients. Involution status of the breast (degree of lobular involution and the predominant lobule type) was microscopically assessed in normal breast tissue on hematoxylin-eosin stained mastectomy slides. Multivariate generalized linear models were used to assess the associations. In age-adjusted analyses, higher levels of pro-inflammatory markers IL-6, TNF-α, CRP, COX-2, leptin, SAA1 and IL-8; and anti-inflammatory marker IL-10, were inversely associated with the prevalence of complete lobular involution (all P≤0.04). Higher levels of the pro-inflammatory marker COX-2 were also associated with lower prevalence of predominant type 1/no type 3 lobules in the breast, an indicator of complete involution, in age-adjusted analysis (P = 0.017). Higher tissue levels of inflammatory markers, mainly the pro-inflammatory ones, are associated with less involuted breasts and may consequently be associated with an increased risk of developing breast cancer. PMID:28846716

Violence toward a family member, angry adult conflict, and child adjustment difficulties: relations in families with 1- to 3-year-old children.

PubMed

McDonald, Renee; Jouriles, Ernest N; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J; Rosenfield, David; Carter, Alice S

2007-06-01

In this study, the authors examined whether witnessing violence toward a family member increases the risk for adjustment difficulties among children in the 1- to 3-year age range, beyond the risk attributable to witnessing nonviolent, angry adult conflict. Participants were 1,152 caregivers of 1- to 3-year-old children, randomly selected from birth records and recruited from the community. Caregivers indicated whether their children had witnessed violence toward a family member and/or angry adult conflict. They also completed a comprehensive measure of child adjustment difficulties. Exposure to violence toward a family member and exposure to angry adult conflict were each uniquely associated with increased risk for adjustment problems. These results emerged after accounting for pertinent demographic variables and for caregiver distress variables.

A risk-adjusted definition of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Morgan, T M; Meng, M V; Cooperberg, M R; Cowan, J E; Weinberg, V; Carroll, P R; Lin, D W

2014-06-01

To determine whether a variable definition of biochemical recurrence (BCR) based on clincopathologic features facilitates early identification of patients likely to suffer from disease progression. The definition of BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP) bears important implications for patient counseling and management; however, there remains a significant debate regarding the appropriate definition. The study cohort consisted of 3619 men who underwent RP for localized prostate cancer from 1989 to 2007, with data abstracted from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry. Patients were stratified into three risk groups according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment post-Surgical (CAPRA-S) score. Three single threshold PSA cut-points for BCR were evaluated (PSA > or =0.05, > or =0.2 and > or =0.4 ng ml(-1)) as well as a variable cut-point defined by risk group. After reaching the cut-points, patients were followed for further PSA progression. The proportion of patients with BCR differed by cut-point and risk group, ranging from 7 to 37% (low risk), 22 to 58% (intermediate risk) and 60 to 86% (high risk). The positive-predictive value (PPV) for predicting further PSA progression was 49% for the PSA > or =0.05 ng ml(-1), 62% for the PSA > or =0.2 ng ml(-1), 65% for the PSA > or =0.4 ng ml(-1) and 68% for the risk-adjusted definition. Five-year progression-free survival was 39% for the risk-adjusted definition compared with 45-52% for the other definitions of BCR. These data suggest that a variable definition of BCR determined by clinicopathologic risk may improve the identification of early recurrence after RP without increasing the overdiagnosis of BCR. By using a risk-adjusted BCR definition, clinicians can better predict future PSA progression and more appropriately counsel patients regarding salvage therapies.

Symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and social and school adjustment: the moderating roles of age and parenting.

PubMed

Kawabata, Yoshito; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

2012-02-01

This study examined the associations between symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and social and school adjustment (academic performance, peer relationships, school social problems) and the moderating roles of children's age and maternal parenting (affection and overprotection) in these associations. The sample consisted of 2,463 students who were in the first to ninth grade in northern Taiwan. Results from the linear mixed models demonstrated that ADHD symptoms were inversely associated with academic performance and positively associated with social adjustment problems. Further, children's age and maternal parenting moderated the associations between ADHD symptoms and school and social adjustment. For example, maternal overprotection moderated the relation between hyperactivity and negative peer relationships (i.e., difficulty forming and maintaining friendships), such that this relation was stronger for children who experienced higher levels of overprotection than children who did not. Moreover, children's age moderated the association between attention problems and decreased academic performance, such that this association was stronger for older children and adolescents than for younger children. Furthermore, children's age and maternal affection interacted to influence the association between attention problems and school social problems (i.e., bullying, aggression, and peer rejection) with maternal affection acting as a buffer for older children (grades 4-6) only. These findings are discussed from a developmental psychopathology perspective.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-12-01

HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J