Mixing in age-structured population models of infectious diseases.
Glasser, John; Feng, Zhilan; Moylan, Andrew; Del Valle, Sara; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
2012-01-01
Infectious diseases are controlled by reducing pathogen replication within or transmission between hosts. Models can reliably evaluate alternative strategies for curtailing transmission, but only if interpersonal mixing is represented realistically. Compartmental modelers commonly use convex combinations of contacts within and among groups of similarly aged individuals, respectively termed preferential and proportionate mixing. Recently published face-to-face conversation and time-use studies suggest that parents and children and co-workers also mix preferentially. As indirect effects arise from the off-diagonal elements of mixing matrices, these observations are exceedingly important. Accordingly, we refined the formula published by Jacquez et al. [19] to account for these newly-observed patterns and estimated age-specific fractions of contacts with each preferred group. As the ages of contemporaries need not be identical nor those of parents and children to differ by exactly the generation time, we also estimated the variances of the Gaussian distributions with which we replaced the Kronecker delta commonly used in theoretical studies. Our formulae reproduce observed patterns and can be used, given contacts, to estimate probabilities of infection on contact, infection rates, and reproduction numbers. As examples, we illustrate these calculations for influenza based on "attack rates" from a prospective household study during the 1957 pandemic and for varicella based on cumulative incidence estimated from a cross-sectional serological survey conducted from 1988-94, together with contact rates from the several face-to-face conversation and time-use studies. Susceptibility to infection on contact generally declines with age, but may be elevated among adolescents and adults with young children. PMID:22037144
An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.
2015-06-01
In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.
A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics
Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.
2013-01-01
The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.
Coggins, L.G., Jr.; Pine, William E., III; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.
2006-01-01
We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.
Sullivan, P.J.; Swartzman, G.L.
1984-03-01
The dynamics of the Hudson river striped bass (Morone saxatilis) stock were analyzed using a stochastic age structured model. The effect of river flow on recruitment was combined with the mortality due to fishing and power plant water uptake to obtain an overall effect of these variables on the fishery. Model equations and parameters were documented and their underlying assumptions presented. Preliminary model runs resulted in yields well below those actually observed. Calibration of model parameters brought these values closer to the observed yields, but stock values proved inexact. The influence of power plant mortality on fishery yield was evident, but the simulation results remain inconclusive. 11 references, 4 figures, 6 tables.
To fully understand the potential long-term ecological impacts a pollutant has on a species, population-level effects must be estimated. Since long-term field experiments are typically not feasible, vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction of individual organisms ar...
Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.
2015-01-01
We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.
Namazi-Rad, M; Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, P; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, P; Perez, Pascal
2014-01-01
Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522
Sweka, J.A.; Smith, D.R.; Millard, M.J.
2007-01-01
The objective of this simulation study was to create an age-structured population model for horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphenols) in the Delaware Bay region using best available estimates of age-specific mortality and recent harvest levels. Density dependence was incorporated using a spatial model relating egg mortality with abundance of spawning females. Combinations of annual female harvest (0, 50, 100, and 200 thousand), timing of female harvest (before or after spawning), and three levels of density-dependent egg mortality were simulated. The probability of the population increasing was high (> 80%) with low and medium egg mortality and harvest less than 200 thousand females per year. Under the high egg mortality case, the probability of the population increasing was < 50% regardless of harvest. Harvest occurring after spawning increased the probability of population growth. The number of eggs available to shorebirds was highest when egg mortality was lowest and female abundance was at its highest levels. Although harvest and egg mortality influenced population growth and food availability to shorebirds, sensitivity and elasticity analyses showed that early-life stage mortality, age 0 mortality in particular, was the most important parameter for population growth. Our modeling results indicate areas where further research is needed and suggest effective management will involve a combination of harvest management and actions to increase early juvenile survival. ?? 2007 Estuarine Research Federation.
Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population
Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, J.S.
2003-01-01
Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.
A Hierarchical Kinetic Theory of Birth, Death and Fission in Age-Structured Interacting Populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris D.
2016-07-01
We develop mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we formulate a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies.
A Hierarchical Kinetic Theory of Birth, Death and Fission in Age-Structured Interacting Populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris D.
2016-05-01
We develop mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we formulate a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies.
Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Addawe, Joel M.; Lope, Jose Ernie C.
2012-09-01
We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria.
Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.
2014-02-01
The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.
The contribution of age structure to cell population responses to targeted therapeutics
Gabriel, Pierre; Garbett, Shawn P.; Quaranta, Vito; Tyson, Darren R.; Webb, Glenn F.
2013-01-01
Cells grown in culture act as a model system for analyzing the effects of anticancer compounds, which may affect cell behavior in a cell cycle position-dependent manner. Cell synchronization techniques have been generally employed to minimize the variation in cell cycle position. However, synchronization techniques are cumbersome and imprecise and the agents used to synchronize the cells potentially have other unknown effects on the cells. An alternative approach is to determine the age structure in the population and account for the cell cycle positional effects post hoc. Here we provide a formalism to use quantifiable lifespans from live cell microscopy experiments to parameterize an age-structured model of cell population response. PMID:22796330
Definitions of fitness in age-structured populations: Comparison in the haploid case.
Lessard, Sabin; Soares, Cintia
2016-02-21
Fisher's (1930) Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection (FTNS), and in particular the development of an explicit age-structured version of the theorem, is of everlasting interest. In a recent paper, Grafen (2015a) argues that Fisher regarded his theorem as justifying individual rather than population fitness maximization. The argument relies on a new definition of fitness in age-structured populations in terms of individual birth and death rates and age-specific reproductive values in agreement with a principle of neutrality. The latter are frequency-dependent and defined without reference to genetic variation. In the same paper, it is shown that the rate of increase in the mean of the breeding values of fitness weighted by the reproductive values, but keeping the breeding values constant as in Price (1972) is equal to the additive genetic variance in fitness. Therefore, this partial change is obtained by keeping constant not only the genotypic birth and death rates but also the mean age-specific birth and death rates from which the age-specific reproductive values are defined. In this paper we reaffirm that the Malthusian parameter which measures the relative rate of increase or decrease in reproductive value of each genotype in a continuous-time age-structured population is the definition of fitness used in Fisher's (1930) FTNS. This is shown by considering an age-structured asexual haploid population with constant age-specific birth and death (or survival) parameters for each type. Although the original statement of the FTNS is for a diploid population, this simplified haploid model allows us to address the definition of fitness meant in this theorem without the complexities and effects of a changing genic environment. In this simplified framework, the rate of change in mean fitness in continuous time is expected to be exactly equal to the genetic variance in fitness (or to the genetic variance in fitness divided by the mean fitness in discrete time), which can
Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications
Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.
2015-01-01
The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540
Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.
Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J
2015-04-01
The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540
Optimal Harvesting in an Age-Structured Predator-Prey Model
Fister, K. Renee Lenhart, Suzanne
2006-06-15
We investigate optimal harvesting control in a predator-prey model in which the prey population is represented by a first-order partial differential equation with age-structure and the predator population is represented by an ordinary differential equation in time. The controls are the proportions of the populations to be harvested, and the objective functional represents the profit from harvesting. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal control pair are established.
The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.
Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark
2016-03-01
Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its
[Nonlinear effects on population dynamics related to age structure and fishery impact].
Frisman, E Ia; Last, E V
2005-01-01
Population dynamics of commercial fish populations with an age structure was studied by the example of salmons. The relationship between the amount of catch on fishing efforts and total abundance of a stock fished is described by a nonlinear "trophic" function. Special attention is given to the analysis of population dynamics stability under conditions for maximum profit. Simulation results are compared to statistical data on the catch of Pacific salmon species in the Bering Sea. PMID:16240747
Mathematical Model of Three Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus
Agusto, Folashade B.; Easley, Shamise; Freeman, Kenneth; Thomas, Madison
2016-01-01
We developed a new age-structured deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the stable disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes, in the presence of disease induced mortality, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the qualitative dynamics of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. This is further emphasized by the sensitivity analysis results, which shows that the dominant parameters of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. However, the numerical simulations show the flaw of the exclusion of age in the transmission dynamics of chikungunya with regard to control implementations. The exclusion of age structure fails to show the age distribution needed for an effective age based control strategy, leading to a one size fits all blanket control for the entire population. PMID:27190548
Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang
2014-11-01
Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase. PMID:25898607
Optimal control for an age-structured model for the transmission of hepatitis B.
Djidjou Demasse, Ramses; Tewa, Jean-Jules; Bowong, Samuel; Emvudu, Yves
2016-08-01
One of the characteristics of HBV transmission is the age structure of the host population and the vertical transmission of the disease. That is the infection is transmitted directly from infected mother to an embryo, fetus, or baby during pregnancy or childbirth (the perinatal infection). We formulated an age-structured model for the transmission dynamics of HBV with differential infectivity: symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The model without intervention strategies is completely analyzed. We compute the basic reproduction number which determines the outcome of the disease. We also compute equilibria and study their stability. The sensitivity analysis of the initial model parameters is performed (to determine the impact of control-related parameters on outbreak severity). Using optimal control theory, we determine the cost-effective balance of three interventions methods which minimizes HBV-related deaths as well as the costs associated with intervention. PMID:26676356
Continuous Age-Structured Model for Bovine Tuberculosis in African buffalo
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anguelov, R.; Kojouharov, H.
2009-10-01
The paper deals with a model of the spread of bovine tuberculosis in the buffalo population in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The model uses continuous age structure and it is formulated in terms of partial differential equations using eight epidemiological classes (compartments). More precisely, the age density for each class at time t satisfies a one way wave equation, where the age is the space variable. The continuous age model discussed here is derived from a 2006 age groups model by P. C. Cross and W. M. Getz.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Zhihua; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui
2014-08-01
Normal form theory is very important and useful in simplifying the forms of equations restricted on the center manifolds in studying nonlinear dynamical problems. In this paper, using the center manifold theorem associated with the integrated semigroup theory, we develop a normal form theory for semilinear Cauchy problems in which the linear operator is not densely defined and is not a Hille-Yosida operator and present procedures to compute the Taylor expansion and normal form of the reduced system restricted on the center manifold. We then apply the main results and computation procedures to determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions in a structured evolutionary epidemiological model of influenza A drift and an age structured population model.
Threshold behaviour of a SIR epidemic model with age structure and immigration.
Franceschetti, Andrea; Pugliese, Andrea
2008-07-01
We consider a SIR age-structured model with immigration of infectives in all epidemiological compartments; the population is assumed to be in demographic equilibrium between below-replacement fertility and immigration; the spread of the infection occurs through a general age-dependent kernel. We analyse the equations for steady states; because of immigration of infectives a steady state with a positive density of infectives always exists; however, a quasi-threshold theorem is proved, in the sense that, below the threshold, the density of infectives is close to 0, while it is away from 0, above the threshold; furthermore, conditions that guarantee uniqueness of steady states are obtained. Finally, we present some numerical examples, inspired by the Italian demographic situation, that illustrate the threshold-like behaviour, and other features of the stationary solutions and of the transient. PMID:17985131
White noise and synchronization shaping the age structure of the human population
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cebrat, Stanislaw; Biecek, Przemyslaw; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Kula, Mateusz
2007-06-01
We have modified the standard diploid Penna model of ageing in such a way that instead of threshold of defective loci resulting in genetic death of individuals, the fluctuation of environment and "personal" fluctuations of individuals were introduced. The sum of the both fluctuations describes the health status of the individual. While environmental fluctuations are the same for all individuals in the population, the personal component of fluctuations is composed of fluctuations corresponding to each physiological function (gene, genetic locus). It is rather accepted hypothesis that physiological parameters of any organism fluctuate highly nonlinearly. Transition to the synchronized behaviors could be a very strong diagnostic signal of the life threatening disorder. Thus, in our model, mutations of genes change the chaotic fluctuations representing the function of a wild gene to the synchronized signals generated by mutated genes. Genes are switched on chronologically, like in the standard Penna model. Accumulation of defective genes predicted by Medawar's theory of ageing leads to the replacement of uncorrelated white noise corresponding to the healthy organism by the correlated signals of defective functions. As a result we have got the age distribution of population corresponding to the human demographic data.
Barrett, Dominic A.; Leslie, David M., Jr.
2012-01-01
Examination of age structures and sex ratios is useful in the management of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis) and other furbearers. Reintroductions and subsequent recolonizations of river otters have been well documented, but changes in demographics between expanding and established populations have not been observed. As a result of reintroduction efforts, immigration from Arkansas and northeastern Texas, and other efforts, river otters have become partially reestablished throughout eastern and central Oklahoma. Our objective was to examine age structures of river otters in Oklahoma and identify trends that relate to space (watersheds, county) and time (USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service county trapping records). We predicted that river otters in western areas of the state were younger than river otters occurring farther east. From 2005–2007, we obtained salvaged river otter carcasses from federal and state agencies, and we live-captured other river otters using leg hold traps. Seventy-two river otters were sampled. Overall, sex ratios were skewed toward females (1F∶0.8M), but they did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Teeth were removed from salvaged and live-captured river otters (n = 63) for aging. One-year old river otters represented the largest age class (30.2%). Proportion of juveniles (<1 y old) in Oklahoma (19.0%) was less than other states. Mean age of river otters decreased from east-to-west in the Arkansas River and its tributaries. Mean age of river otters differed between the Canadian River Watershed (0.8 y) and the Arkansas River Watershed (2.9 y) and the Canadian River Watershed and the Red River Watershed (2.4 y). Proportion of juveniles did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Similar to age structure variations in other mammalian carnivores, colonizing or growing western populations of river otters in Oklahoma contained younger ages than more established eastern populations.
Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions.
Holmes, E E; Fritz, L W; York, A E; Sweeney, K
2007-12-01
Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska
Individual fitness and phenotypic selection in age-structured populations with constant growth rates
Moorad, Jacob A.
2013-01-01
Powerful multiple regression-based approaches are commonly used to measure the strength of phenotypic selection, which is the statistical association between individual fitness and trait values. Age structure and overlapping generations complicate determinations of individual fitness, contributing to the popularity of alternative methods for measuring natural selection that do not depend upon such measures. The application of regression-based techniques for measuring selection in these situations requires a demographically appropriate, conceptually sound, and observable measure of individual fitness. It has been suggested that Fisher’s reproductive value applied to an individual at its birth is such a definition. Here I offer support for this assertion by showing that multiple regression applied to this measure and vital rates (age-specific survival and fertility rates) yields the same selection gradients for vital rates as those inferred from Hamilton’s classical results. I discuss how multiple regressions, applied to individual reproductive value at birth, can be used efficiently to estimate measures of phenotypic selection that are problematic for sensitivity analyses. These include nonlinear selection, components of the opportunity for selection, and multi-level selection. PMID:24933826
Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J
2014-11-01
Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486
Garbutt, Jennie S.; O'Donoghue, Anna J. P.; McTaggart, Seanna J.; Wilson, Philip J.; Little, Tom J.
2014-01-01
Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host–pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen (‘priming’) persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486
Norman, R. A.; Chan, M. S.; Srividya, A.; Pani, S. P.; Ramaiah, K. D.; Vanamail, P.; Michael, E.; Das, P. K.; Bundy, D. A.
2000-01-01
Mathematical models of transmission dynamics of infectious diseases provide a useful tool for investigating the impact of community based control measures. Previously, we used a dynamic (constant force-of-infection) model for lymphatic filariasis to describe observed patterns of infection and disease in endemic communities. In this paper, we expand the model to examine the effects of control options against filariasis by incorporating the impact of age structure of the human community and by addressing explicitly the dynamics of parasite transmission from and to the vector population. This model is tested using data for Wuchereria bancrofti transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus in Pondicherry, South India. The results show that chemotherapy has a larger short-term impact than vector control but that the effects of vector control can last beyond the treatment period. In addition we compare rates of recrudescence for drugs with different macrofilaricidal effects. PMID:10982078
Politikos, D V; Tzanetis, D E; Nikolopoulos, C V; Maravelias, C D
2012-05-01
The objective of this paper is the integration of existing biological and fishery knowledge of anchovy into a unified modelling framework in order to advance our understanding of species' population dynamics under different fishing strategies. The model simulates the anchovy biomass by combining an age-specific growth equation and a continuous age-structured population model based on the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. Model predictions were compared to the biomass estimates and annual catches during the period 2003-2008. The present work provided direct evidence for the significance of the prespawning period as a critical life period for the management of anchovy stock in the Aegean Sea. It was found that the introduction of additional management measures could increase the profits in the long run for the fishery. However, for these to become apparent they will require a minimum of four years. Results also indicated that the reduction of fishing mortality directed at the spawning stock (recruitment overfishing) and the selective harvesting of younger individuals may be a plausible means of increasing stock's total anchovy biomass. Finally, as a criterion of long-term population survival, we have considered the mathematical notation of persistence. The numerical criteria of persistence in the present model indicated that the anchovy population could be considered viable. PMID:22426444
NOYMER, ANDREW
2009-01-01
This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in an age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entrenched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are modeled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to believe the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of former believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach to stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the model where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the model where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g., experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights. PMID:20351799
Phase Transition in a Sexual Age-Structured Model of Learning Foreign Languages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwämmle, V.
The understanding of language competition helps us to predict extinction and survival of languages spoken by minorities. A simple agent-based model of a sexual population, based on the Penna model, is built in order to find out under which circumstances one language dominates other ones. This model considers that only young people learn foreign languages. The simulations show a first order phase transition of the ratio between the number of speakers of different languages with the mutation rate as control parameter.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noda, Takashi
1997-05-01
Year-to-year changes in age structure, biomass ( B), annual secondary production ( P) and {P}/{overlineB} ratio are described of a population of the subtidal snail Umbonium costatum in Hakodate Bay, northern Japan, during a 6-y period (1982-1988). Population structure and values of biomass and production were highly variable from year to year; the ranges of the annual mean biomass, annual production and {P}/{overlineB} ratio were 3.71-9.22 g dry tissue m -2, 1.01-4.92 g dry tissue m -2 y -1 and 0.13-1.33 y -1 respectively. Change in the age structure was the most important single factor affecting temporal changes in annual production in this population. The annual production of the population was high when young individuals, which have a small body size and high growth rate, dominated the population. While annual {P}/{overlineB} ratios in 1983 and 1984 fell within the range of values reported for various other gastropods, those in 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1988 were markedly lower, if the relation between the population {P}/{overlineB} ratio and life span is taken into account. This demonstrates that production estimates from annual biomass and life-span values may lead to incorrect results in a recruitment-limited population.
Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics
Johnson, D.H.
1979-01-01
The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.
Gaubert, Stéphane; Lepoutre, Thomas
2015-12-01
We consider a cell population described by an age-structured partial differential equation with time periodic coefficients. We assume that division only occurs within certain time intervals at a rate [Formula: see text] for cells who have reached minimal positive age (maturation). We study the asymptotic behavior of the dominant Floquet eigenvalue, or Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue, representing the growth rate, as a function of the maturation age, when the division rate [Formula: see text] tends to infinity (divisions become instantaneous). We show that the dominant Floquet eigenvalue converges to a staircase function with an infinite number of steps, determined by a discrete dynamical system. This indicates that, in the limit, the growth rate is governed by synchronization phenomena between the maturation age and the length of the time intervals in which division may occur. As an intermediate result, we give a sufficient condition which guarantees that the dominant Floquet eigenvalue is a nondecreasing function of the division rate. We also give a counter example showing that the latter monotonicity property does not hold in general. PMID:25814336
Cooperation and age structure in spatial games
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.
2012-01-01
We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hibbard, K. A.; Law, B.; Thornton, P.
2003-12-01
Disturbance and management regimes in forested ecosystems have been recently highlighted as important factors contributing to quantification of carbon stocks and fluxes. Disturbance events, such as stand-replacing fires and current management regimes that emphasize understory and tree thinning are primary suspects influencing ecosystem processes, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests of the Pacific Northwest. Several recent analyses have compared simulated to measured component stocks and fluxes of carbon in Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa var. Laws) at 12 sites ranging from 9 to 300 years in central Oregon (Law et al. 2001, Law et al. 2003) using the BIOME-BGC model. Major emphases on ecosystem model developments include improving allocation logic, integrating ecosystem processes with disturbance such as fire and including nitrogen in biogeochemical cycling. In Law et al. (2001, 2003), field observations prompted BIOME-BGC improvements including dynamic allocation of carbon to fine root mass through the life of a stand. A sequence of simulations was also designed to represent both management and disturbance histories for each site, however, current age structure of each sites wasn't addressed. Age structure, or cohort management has largely been ignored by ecosystem models, however, some studies have sought to incorporate stand age with disturbance and management (e.g. Hibbard et al. 2003). In this analyses, we regressed tree ages against height (R2 = 0.67) to develop a proportional distribution of age structure for each site. To preserve the integrity of the comparison between Law et al. (2003) and this study, we maintained the same timing of harvest, however, based on the distribution of age structures, we manipulated the amount of removal. Harvest by Law et al. (2003) was set at stand-replacement (99%) levels to simulate clear-cutting and reflecting the average top 10% of the age in each plot. For the young sites, we set removal at 73%, 51% and
Modelling production per unit of food consumed in fish populations.
Wiff, Rodrigo; Barrientos, Mauricio A; Milessi, Andrés C; Quiroz, J C; Harwood, John
2015-01-21
The ratio of production-to-consumption (ρ) reflects how efficiently a population can transform ingested food into biomass. Usually this ratio is estimated by separately integrating cohort per-recruit production and consumption per unit of biomass. Estimates of ρ from cohort analysis differ from those that consider the whole population, because fish populations are usually composed of cohorts that differ in their relative abundance. Cohort models for ρ also assume a stable age-structure and a constant population size (stationary condition). This may preclude their application to harvested populations, in which variations in fishing mortality and recruitment will affect age-structure. In this paper, we propose a different framework for estimating (ρ) in which production and consumption are modelled simultaneously to produce a population estimator of ρ. Food consumption is inferred from the physiological concepts underpinning the generalised von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF). This general framework allows the effects of different age-structures to be explored, with a stationary population as a special case. Three models with different complexities, depending mostly on what assumptions are made about age-structure, are explored. The full data model requires knowledge about food assimilation efficiency, parameters of the VBGF and the relative proportion of individuals at age a at time y (Py(a)). A simpler model, which requires less data, is based on the stationary assumption. Model results are compared with estimates from cohort models for ρ using simulated fish populations of different lifespans. The models proposed here were also applied to three fish populations that are targets of commercial fisheries in the south-east Pacific. Uncertainty in the estimation of ρ was evaluated using a resampling approach. Simulation showed that cohort and population models produce different estimates for ρ and those differences depend on lifespan, fishing mortality and
Modeling Honey Bee Populations
Torres, David J.; Ricoy, Ulises M.; Roybal, Shanae
2015-01-01
Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population. PMID:26148010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Manore, C. A.; Moore, S.; Bokil, V. A.; Borer, E.; Hosseini, P.
2010-12-01
Barley yellow dwarf virus infects over 100 grass species in agricultural and natural systems, mitigating success of invasive species. We model BYDV transmission within a spatial framework incorporating the movement of aphid vectors between discrete host patches. We examine BYDV persistence and alteration of pathogen-mediated interactions between perennial and annual competitors across a range of host community and spatial configurations. A sensitivity analysis of the disease basic reproduction number identifies how key parameters influence the ability of the pathogen to invade a heterogeneous host community. Although high perennial abundance slows the initial spread of BYDV, numerical simulations of many patches demonstrate that increasing connectivity between patches tends to increase prevalence. The ability of competitively inferior annual grasses to coexistence with perennials depends on patch configuration, with annuals in patches further away from the source of infection going extinct before BYDV spreads to the patch.
Statistical validation of structured population models for Daphnia magna
Adoteye, Kaska; Banks, H.T.; Cross, Karissa; Eytcheson, Stephanie; Flores, Kevin B.; LeBlanc, Gerald A.; Nguyen, Timothy; Ross, Chelsea; Smith, Emmaline; Stemkovski, Michael; Stokely, Sarah
2016-01-01
In this study we use statistical validation techniques to verify density-dependent mechanisms hypothesized for populations of Daphnia magna. We develop structured population models that exemplify specific mechanisms, and use multi-scale experimental data in order to test their importance. We show that fecundity and survival rates are affected by both time-varying density-independent factors, such as age, and density-dependent factors, such as competition. We perform uncertainty analysis and show that our parameters are estimated with a high degree of confidence. Further, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in fecundity and survival rates affect population size and age-structure. PMID:26092608
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haywood, Misha; Di Matteo, Paola; Lehnert, Matthew D.; Katz, David; Gómez, Ana
2013-12-01
We analyze a sample of solar neighborhood stars that have high-quality abundance determinations and show that there are two distinct regimes of [α/Fe] versus age, which we identify as the epochs of the thick and thin disk formation. A tight correlation between metallicity and [α/Fe] versus age is clearly identifiable for thick disk stars, implying that this population formed from a well mixed interstellar medium, probably initially in starburst and then more quiescently, over a time scale of 4-5 Gyr. Thick disk stars have vertical velocity dispersions which correlate with age, with the youngest objects of this population having small scale heights similar to those of thin disk stars. A natural consequence of these two results is that a vertical metallicity gradient is expected in this population. We suggest that the youngest thick disk set the initial conditions from which the inner thin disk started to form about 8 Gyr ago, at [Fe/H] in the range of (-0.1, +0.1) dex and [α/Fe] ~ 0.1 dex. This also provides an explanation for the apparent coincidence between the existence of a step in metallicity at 7-10 kpc in the thin disk and the confinement of the thick disk within R < 10 kpc. We suggest that the outer thin disk developed outside the influence of the thick disk, giving rise to a separate structure, but also that the high alpha-enrichment of those regions may originate from a primordial pollution of the outer regions by the gas expelled from the forming thick disk. Metal-poor thin disk stars ([Fe/H] < -0.4 dex) in the solar vicinity, whose properties are best explained by them originating in the outer disk, are shown to be as old as the youngest thick disk (9-10 Gyr). This implies that the outer thin disk started to form while the thick disk was still forming stars in the inner parts of the Galaxy. Hence, while the overall inner (thick+thin) disk is comprised of two structures with different scale lengths and whose combination may give the impression of an
Modeling Exponential Population Growth
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McCormick, Bonnie
2009-01-01
The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…
Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McGranahan, David A.
1985-01-01
Whatever migration patterns evolve, changes in the age structure mean that rural communities in general can expect fairly stable elementary school population, reduced high school population, slower growth in new business and employment, and continued increase in the elderly population. (JHZ)
Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data
Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.
2014-01-01
It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.
Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data
Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter
2011-01-01
Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.
Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data.
Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter
2011-09-01
Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona. PMID:21155745
Modeling Population Growth and Extinction
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gordon, Sheldon P.
2009-01-01
The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…
Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes.
Greenman, Chris D; Chou, Tom
2016-01-01
Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. PMID:26871029
Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom
2016-01-01
Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.
Sustainability in single-species population models.
Quinn, Terrance J; Collie, Jeremy S
2005-01-29
In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods. The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, F(MSY), which results in MSY, and a higher value, F(ext), for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and F(ext), there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achieving sustainability is the control of fishing mortality. The neoclassical view of sustainability, developed in the 1980s, involved population models with depensation and stochasticity. This view point is in accord with the perception that a population at a low level is susceptible to collapse or to a lack of rebuilding regardless of fishing. Sustainability occurs in a more restricted range from that in the classical view and includes an abundance threshold. A variety of studies has suggested that fishing mortality should not let a population drop below a threshold at 10-20% of carrying capacity. The modern view of sustainability in the 1990s moves further in the direction of precaution. The fishing mortality limit is the former target of F(MSY) (or some proxy), and the target fishing mortality is set lower. This viewpoint further reduces the range of permissible fishing mortalities and resultant desired population sizes. The objective has shifted from optimizing long-term catch to
Modeling Chagas Disease at Population Level to Explain Venezuela's Real Data
González-Parra, Gilberto; Chen-Charpentier, Benito M.; Bermúdez, Moises
2015-01-01
Objectives In this paper we present an age-structured epidemiological model for Chagas disease. This model includes the interactions between human and vector populations that transmit Chagas disease. Methods The human population is divided into age groups since the proportion of infected individuals in this population changes with age as shown by real prevalence data. Moreover, the age-structured model allows more accurate information regarding the prevalence, which can help to design more specific control programs. We apply this proposed model to data from the country of Venezuela for two periods, 1961–1971, and 1961–1991 taking into account real demographic data for these periods. Results Numerical computer simulations are presented to show the suitability of the age-structured model to explain the real data regarding prevalence of Chagas disease in each of the age groups. In addition, a numerical simulation varying the death rate of the vector is done to illustrate prevention and control strategies against Chagas disease. Conclusion The proposed model can be used to determine the effect of control strategies in different age groups. PMID:26929912
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Billy, Frédérique; Clairambault, Jean; Fercoq, Olivier; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Lorz, Alexander; Perthame, Benoît
2012-09-01
The main two pitfalls of therapeutics in clinical oncology, that limit increasing drug doses, are unwanted toxic side effects on healthy cell populations and occurrence of resistance to drugs in cancer cell populations. Depending on the constraint considered in the control problem at stake, toxicity or drug resistance, we present two different ways to model the evolution of proliferating cell populations, healthy and cancer, under the control of anti-cancer drugs. In the first case, we use a McKendrick age-structured model of the cell cycle, whereas in the second case, we use a model of evolutionary dynamics, physiologically structured according to a continuous phenotype standing for drug resistance. In both cases, we mention how drug targets may be chosen so as to accurately represent the effects of cytotoxic and of cytostatic drugs, separately, and how one may consider the problem of optimisation of combined therapies.
Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang
2015-04-01
Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.
A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris
Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.
Delay equation models for populations that experience competition at immature life stages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong
2015-09-01
We consider stage-structured population models of intra- and inter-specific competition at immature life stages. A prototype delay model is derived for a single species that experiences larval competition. Its solutions are bounded for any birth function. Other ways of modelling the birth rate can lead to nonlinear integral equations. In some situations the technique of reducing an age-structured model to a system of delay equations applies. In the case of immature competition the delay equations cannot always be written down explicitly because their right hand sides depend on the solutions of the nonlinear ordinary differential equations that arise when one solves the nonlinear age-structured equations that determine the maturation rates in terms of the birth rates. This situation arises in the case of competition between two strains or species. However, in our two-strain competition model, vital properties of those right hand sides can be indirectly inferred using monotone systems theory.
Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David
2011-03-01
Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.
Modelling nova populations in galaxies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Hai-Liang; Woods, T. E.; Yungelson, L. R.; Gilfanov, M.; Han, Zhanwen
2016-05-01
Theoretical modelling of the evolution of classical and recurrent novae plays an important role in studies of binary evolution, nucleosynthesis and accretion physics. However, from a theoretical perspective the observed statistical properties of novae remain poorly understood. In this paper, we have produced model populations of novae using a hybrid binary population synthesis approach for differing star formation histories (SFHs): a starburst case (elliptical-like galaxies), a constant star formation rate case (spiral-like galaxies) and a composite case (in line with the inferred SFH for M31). We found that the nova rate at 10 Gyr in an elliptical-like galaxy is ˜10-20 times smaller than a spiral-like galaxy with the same mass. The majority of novae in elliptical-like galaxies at the present epoch are characterized by low-mass white dwarfs (WDs), long decay times, relatively faint absolute magnitudes and long recurrence periods. In contrast, the majority of novae in spiral-like galaxies at 10 Gyr have massive WDs, short decay times, are relatively bright and have short recurrence periods. The mass-loss time distribution for novae in our M31-like galaxy is in agreement with observational data for Andromeda. However, it is possible that we underestimate the number of bright novae in our model. This may arise in part due to the present uncertainties in the appropriate bolometric correction for novae.
He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Dobiesz, Norine E.; Fielder, David G.; Johnson, James E.; Ebener, Mark P.; Cottrill, Adam R.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Koproski, Scott R.
2015-01-01
We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.
Wiman, Nik G; Walton, Vaughn M; Dalton, Daniel T; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J; Chiu, Joanna C; Daane, Kent M; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio
2014-01-01
Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013
Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio
2014-01-01
Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013
Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations
Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.
2012-01-01
Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.
Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations
Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.
2012-01-01
Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.
Tsehaye, Iyob; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; Brenden, Travis O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.
2014-01-01
Using a Bayesian model fitting approach, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, focusing on the Lake Michigan pelagic fish community. We assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggest that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of historical fluctuations in prey abundance, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1980s and 2000s coinciding with estimated increases in predation mortalities. While Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were food limited during periods of low alewife abundance, other salmonines appeared to maintain a (near) maximum per-predator consumption across all observed prey densities, suggesting that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a balance between predator consumption and prey productivity in Lake Michigan. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach that combines stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator–prey interactions could provide the basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.
Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.
Chavas, Jean-Paul
2015-04-01
The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501
Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations
The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...
Population estimates for Bangladesh: The use of a specific transitional population model.
Gupta, A D; Roy, S G
1976-03-01
Summary The development of population in Bangladesh was affected by a succession of man-made and natural calamities, such as the Bengal Famine of 1943, refugee movements following the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, devastating floods and cyclones around 1970, and the military action during the war of liberation. Though there had been a tradition of census taking and vital registration in Bangladesh, as part of the Indian sub-continent, extending for over a century, vital registration was so deficient as to be almost valueless, and there were gross misstatements of age and under-enumeration in the censuses. In the census of 1941, on the other hand, political manoeuvring led to a substantial overcount of the population. In this paper, Bangladesh population trends are studied within the broader framework of the subcontinent, taking account of plausible differentials. A considerable element of uncertainty was introduced into growth trends as a result of variations in the completeness of census-taking and of unrecorded refugee and labour movements across open land borders. In this connection the substantial inflationary bias associated with techniques of population estimation using the dual record system is discussed. The application of stable population models is even less justified in Bangladesh with its history of declining mortality. A transitional age structure model was constructed on the basis of the information available on declining mortality and accelerating growth and the model was made even more specific by modifications which took care of the impact of recent calamities and of unrecorded migration. The population base of the census of 1961 was adjusted in accordance with this model. The local mortality age pattern was used in projecting the population by sex and age groups to the date at which the census was originally due to be taken in 1971, and to the date when it was actually taken in March 1974. The post-1970 calamities and their effect on
Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics
McGowan, Conor
2015-01-01
Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.
Logofet, D O; Svirezhev, Y M
1980-01-01
"A matrix model for an age structured population with 4 groups is presented.... The demography matrix is identified with data from global demographic statistics for the 1970s. When calibrating the matrix elements, a semi-formal procedure was used to calculate the dominant eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvector. This procedure was based essentially on the dialogue mode of computation provided by the programing language APL." The advantages of using APL are discussed PMID:12263236
[The population problem in global modeling].
Naidenova, P
1986-01-01
Developments during the past 15 years in population modeling are critically reviewed. The author notes that while population variables were treated as endogenous in earlier models developed by the Club of Rome, later models have treated such variables as exogenous. The need to link demographic factors to structural changes and economic growth, in accordance with Marxist-Leninist population theory, is noted. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) PMID:12280533
Margalida, Antoni; Oro, Daniel; Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Heredia, Rafael; Donázar, José A.
2011-01-01
Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements. PMID:22039550
Cohen, J E
1986-02-01
This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty. PMID:3484356
Modelling population change from time series data
Barker, R.J.; Sauer, J.R.
1992-01-01
Information on change in population size over time is among the most basic inputs for population management. Unfortunately, population changes are generally difficult to identify, and once identified difficult to explain. Sources of variald (patterns) in population data include: changes in environment that affect carrying capaciyy and produce trend, autocorrelative processes, irregular environmentally induced perturbations, and stochasticity arising from population processes. In addition. populations are almost never censused and many surveys (e.g., the North American Breeding Bird Survey) produce multiple, incomplete time series of population indices, providing further sampling complications. We suggest that each source of pattern should be used to address specific hypotheses regarding population change, but that failure to correctly model each source can lead to false conclusions about the dynamics of populations. We consider hypothesis tests based on each source of pattern, and the effects of autocorrelated observations and sampling error. We identify important constraints on analyses of time series that limit their use in identifying underlying relationships.
[The structure and dynamics of woodreed Calamagrostis canescens population: a modelling approach].
Ulanova, N G; Demidova, A N; Klochkova, I N; Logofet, D O
2002-01-01
A scale of ontogenetic states has been developed for woodreed Calamagrostis canescens, a perennial species dominating the grass layer of fell forest areas. The population structure is considered as a set of age-stage groups of individuals differing both in the ontogenetic stage and the chronological age measured in years. to describe the dynamics through years a special kind of matrix formalism has been proposed which is reducible neither to the classic Leslie matrix for an age-structured population, nor to the well-known Lefkovitch matrix for a stage-structured one, and which does not suffer from excessiveness of the "two-dimensional" representation for the structure implying the projection matrix of a block pattern. It has been shown however that the protection matrix corresponding to C. canescens life-history graph embodies the canonical features of matrix formalism for structured population dynamics, such as the exponential population growth or decline, the convergence to a stable equilibrium structure, the calculable indicator of growth/decline/equilibrium (i.e., a measure of the population reproductive potential) as well as possibility to determine the relative reproductive value of each group. On the other hand, "left-sidedness of the age spectrum", a property that is often observed in real populations and is inherent in Leslie models of growing populations, may fail in the age-stage-structured model. The aggregation of age-stage groups into the age classes is possible only under special strict relationship among the age-stage-specific vital rates of the population. The both circumstances serve a methodical indication that an additional dimension such as the stages, for example, ought to be introduced into the age structure of the model population. PMID:12510590
Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations.
Karev, G P; Kareva, I
2016-04-01
Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed of clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the "unobserved heterogeneity," i.e., the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of "internal population time" is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117
Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations
Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.
2016-01-01
Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117
Population Modelling with M&M's[R
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Winkel, Brian
2009-01-01
Several activities in which population dynamics can be modelled by tossing M&M's[R] candy are presented. Physical activities involving M&M's[R] can be modelled by difference equations and several population phenomena, including death and immigration, are studied. (Contains 1 note.)
Modeling wildlife populations with HexSim
HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications including population viability analysis for on...
Asymptotic distribution of stage-grouped population models.
Zetlaoui, M; Picard, N; Bar-Hen, A
2006-03-01
Matrix models are often used to predict the dynamics of size-structured or age-structured populations. The asymptotic behaviour of such models is defined by their malthusian growth rate lambda, and by their stationary distribution w that gives the asymptotic proportion of individuals in each stage. As the coefficients of the transition matrix are estimated from a sample of observations, lambda and w can be considered as random variables whose law depends on the distribution of the observations. The goal of this study is to specify the asymptotic law of lambda and w when using the maximum likelihood estimators of the coefficients of the transition matrix. We prove that lambda and w are asymptotically normal, and the expressions of the asymptotic variance of lambda and of the asymptotic covariance matrix of w are given. The convergence speed of lambda and w towards their asymptotic law is studied using simulations. The results are applied to a real case study that consists of a Usher model for a tropical rain forest in French Guiana. They permit to assess the number of trees to measure to get a given precision on the estimated asymptotic diameter distribution, which is an important information on tropical forest management. PMID:16427655
Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry
The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.
Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.
Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G
2015-06-01
We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. PMID:25494697
The Career Counseling with Underserved Populations Model
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pope, Mark
2011-01-01
Providing effective career counseling to culturally diverse individuals is not the same as helping those from majority cultures. The Career Counseling With Underserved Populations model aids career counselors in supporting underserved populations as they strive to address their important career counseling issues.
Investigating Population Heterogeneity With Factor Mixture Models
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lubke, Gitta H.; Muthen, Bengt
2005-01-01
Sources of population heterogeneity may or may not be observed. If the sources of heterogeneity are observed (e.g., gender), the sample can be split into groups and the data analyzed with methods for multiple groups. If the sources of population heterogeneity are unobserved, the data can be analyzed with latent class models. Factor mixture models…
A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models
Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.
2008-05-01
This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.
Modeling Small Stellar Populations Using Starburst99
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vazquez, Gerardo Arturo; Leitherer, Claus
2015-08-01
Stellar populations synthesis models have proven to be excellent tools to learn about galaxy evolution. However, modeling small stellar populations (lower than 105 M⊙) has been an intriguing and continuous to be a field of intensive research. In this work, we have developed a new approach to form stars from clusters first, where massive stars are formed from fractions of mass of small stellar clusters. This new approximation is based on the empirical power law (mc-2) for the mass function of clusters between 20-1100 M⊙ found in recent years and the maximum stellar mass that can be formed in a cluster. Incorporating this new approach to form clusters has made us upgrade the way we integrate the stellar properties and the way that the isochrone is produced with a new technique. To produce the new models we have used the most recent version of Starburst99 that incorporates the most recent stellar evolution models with rotation. On the verge of solving nearby stellar populations and observing small stellar populations across the universe, this new approach brings a new scope on trying to disentangle the nature of hyper and supermassive stars in small stellar populations. In this work we present this new approach and the results when these models are applied to very energetic stellar populations such as the cluster in NGC 3603. Our most important result is that we have modeled the ionizing power of this cluster and some others by forming enough supermassive stars in a cluster of ~104 M⊙.
Population-expression models of immune response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stromberg, Sean P.; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya
2013-06-01
The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher
2010-01-01
This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…
Simple models for reading neuronal population codes.
Seung, H S; Sompolinsky, H
1993-01-01
In many neural systems, sensory information is distributed throughout a population of neurons. We study simple neural network models for extracting this information. The inputs to the networks are the stochastic responses of a population of sensory neurons tuned to directional stimuli. The performance of each network model in psychophysical tasks is compared with that of the optimal maximum likelihood procedure. As a model of direction estimation in two dimensions, we consider a linear network that computes a population vector. Its performance depends on the width of the population tuning curves and is maximal for width, which increases with the level of background activity. Although for narrowly tuned neurons the performance of the population vector is significantly inferior to that of maximum likelihood estimation, the difference between the two is small when the tuning is broad. For direction discrimination, we consider two models: a perceptron with fully adaptive weights and a network made by adding an adaptive second layer to the population vector network. We calculate the error rates of these networks after exhaustive training to a particular direction. By testing on the full range of possible directions, the extent of transfer of training to novel stimuli can be calculated. It is found that for threshold linear networks the transfer of perceptual learning is nonmonotonic. Although performance deteriorates away from the training stimulus, it peaks again at an intermediate angle. This nonmonotonicity provides an important psychophysical test of these models. PMID:8248166
Population changes: contemporary models and theories.
Sauvy, A
1981-01-01
In many developing countries rapid population growth has promoted a renewed interest in the study of the effect of population growth on economic development. This research takes either the macroeconomic viewpoint, where the nation is the framework, or the microeconomic perspective, where the family is the framework. For expository purposes, the macroeconomic viewpoint is assumed, and an example of such an investment is presented. Attention is directed to the following: a simplified model--housing; the lessons learned from experience (primitive populations, Spain in the 17th and 18th centuries, comparing development in Spain and Italy, 19th century Western Europe, and underdeveloped countries); the positive factors of population growth; and the concept of the optimal rate of growth. Housing is the typical investment that an individual makes. Hence, the housing per person (roughly 1/3 of the necessary amount of housing per family) is taken as a unit, and the calculations are made using averages. The conclusion is that growth is expensive. A population decrease might be advantageous, for this decrease would enable the entire population to benefit from past capital accumulation. It is also believed, "a priori," that population growth is more expensive for a developed than for a developing country. This belief may be attributable to the fact that the capital per person tends to be high in the developed countries. Any further increase in the population requires additional capital investments, driving this ratio even higher. Yet, investment is not the only factor inhibiting economic development. The literature describes factors regarding population growth, yet this writer prefers to emphasize 2 other factors that have been the subject of less study: a growing population's ease of adaptation and the human factor--behavior. A growing population adapts better to new conditions than does a stationary or declining population, and contrary to "a priori" belief, a growing
AGE-STRUCTURAL TRANSITION IN INDONESIA
Kreager, Philip; Schröder-Butterfill, Elisabeth
2016-01-01
This paper responds to recent calls for empirical study of the impact of age-structural transition. It begins by reviewing evidence of cohort oscillations in twentieth-century Indonesia, which indicates that current older generations are likely to have smaller numbers of children on whom they may rely than generations before and after them. However, to assess whether the imbalances implied by this situation are actually influencing people’s lives, attention to further factors shaping the availability and reliability of younger generations, notably differences in socio-economic status and in patterns of inter-generational support flows, is required. Community-level Indonesian data confirm that elders in the lower social strata are child-poor. Social structural and family network patterns, however, have a greater influence on the availability of inter-generational support than cohort differentials. PMID:27158254
Design issues for population growth models
López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.
2010-01-01
We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244
Bivalves: From individual to population modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.
2014-11-01
An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.
Model for Mutation in Bacterial Populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donangelo, R.; Fort, H.
2002-07-01
We describe the evolution of E. coli populations through a Bak-Sneppen-type model which incorporates random mutations. We show that, for a value of the mutation level which coincides with the one estimated from experiments, this model reproduces the measures of mean fitness relative to that of a common ancestor, performed for over 10 000 bacterial generations.
PM POPULATION EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELS
The overall objective of this study is the development of a refined probabilistic exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) suitable for predicting PM10 and PM2.5 population exposures. This modeling research will be conducted both in-house by EPA scientists and through...
Globular Cluster Colors Versus Population Synthesis Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barmby, Pauline; Jalilian, F. F.
2011-05-01
Although the stellar populations of globular clusters are not as simple as we used to believe, they are still the simplest populations available in the nearby universe. As such, they are extremely useful for testing stellar population synthesis models. Using recent mass estimates for Local Group globular clusters, we have compiled a sample of clusters with masses large enough that stochastic effects on integrated photometry should be minimal. We have measured integrated colors in the Spitzer/IRAC bands for as many of these as possible, paying careful attention to systematics in order to get the most accurate colors. We present a comparison of the results with the predictions of the latest generation of population synthesis models, including GALEV and FSPS. Support for this work was provided by a Discovery Grant and an Undergraduate Summer Research Award from NSERC and by an Ontario Early Researcher Award.
Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata
2016-01-01
Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest
Daut, Elizabeth F; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J; Ivanek, Renata
2016-01-01
Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru's most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in
Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)
Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.
1999-01-01
We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.
Bayesian population modeling of drug dosing adherence.
Fellows, Kelly; Stoneking, Colin J; Ramanathan, Murali
2015-10-01
Adherence is a frequent contributing factor to variations in drug concentrations and efficacy. The purpose of this work was to develop an integrated population model to describe variation in adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence to dosing regimens. The hybrid Markov chain-von Mises method for modeling adherence in individual subjects was extended to the population setting using a Bayesian approach. Four integrated population models for overall adherence, the two-state Markov chain transition parameters, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were formulated and critically compared. The Markov chain-Monte Carlo algorithm was used for identifying distribution parameters and for simulations. The model was challenged with medication event monitoring system data for 207 hypertension patients. The four Bayesian models demonstrated good mixing and convergence characteristics. The distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were markedly non-normal and diverse. The models varied in complexity and the method used to incorporate inter-dependence with the preceding dose in the two-state Markov chain. The model that incorporated a cooperativity term for inter-dependence and a hyperbolic parameterization of the transition matrix probabilities was identified as the preferred model over the alternatives. The simulated probability densities from the model satisfactorily fit the observed probability distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence parameters in the sample patients. The model also adequately described the median and observed quartiles for these parameters. The Bayesian model for adherence provides a parsimonious, yet integrated, description of adherence in populations. It may find potential applications in clinical trial simulations and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. PMID:26319548
Expanding clinical applications of population pharmacodynamic modelling
Minto, Charles; Schnider, Thomas
1998-01-01
Population pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics is the study of the variability in drug concentration or pharmacological effect between individuals when standard dosage regimens are administered. We provide an overview of pharmacokinetic models, pharmacodynamic models, population models and residual error models. We outline how population modelling approaches seek to explain interpatient variability with covariate analysis, and, in some approaches, to characterize the unexplained interindividual variability. The interpretation of the results of population modelling approaches is facilitated by shifting the emphasis from the perspective of the modeller to the perspective of the clinician. Both the explained and unexplained interpatient variability should be presented in terms of their impact on the dose–response relationship. Clinically relevant questions relating to the explained and unexplained variability in the population can be posed to the model, and confidence intervals can be obtained for the fraction of the population that is estimated to fall within a specific therapeutic range given a certain dosing regimen. Such forecasting can be used to develop optimal initial dosing guidelines. The development of population models (with random effects) permits the application of Bayes’s formula to obtain improved estimates of an individual’s pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters in the light of observed responses. An important challenge to clinical pharmacology is to identify the drugs that might benefit from such adaptive-control-with-feedback dosing strategies. Drugs used for life threatening diseases with a proven pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationship, a small therapeutic range, large interindividual variability, small interoccasion variability and severe adverse effects are likely to be good candidates. Rapidly evolving changes in health care economics and consumer expectations make it unlikely that traditional drug development approaches
A Population Model of Integrative Cardiovascular Physiology
Pruett, William A.; Husband, Leland D.; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G.; Hester, Robert L.
2013-01-01
We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546
A population model of integrative cardiovascular physiology.
Pruett, William A; Husband, Leland D; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G; Hester, Robert L
2013-01-01
We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546
Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models
Jager, Yetta; King, Anthony Wayne; Schumaker, Nathan; Ashwood, Tom L; Jackson, Barbara L
2004-01-01
This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single reference map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species' habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum
EFFECTS OF CHRONIC STRESS ON WILDLIFE POPULATIONS: A POPULATION MODELING APPROACH AND CASE STUDY
This chapter describes a matrix modeling approach to characterize and project risks to wildlife populations subject to chronic stress. Population matrix modeling was used to estimate effects of one class of environmental contaminants, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), to populations ...
Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl
2008-12-01
Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.
Fitting population models from field data
Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.; Kirchhoff, M.D.; Alados, C.L.; Escos, J.; Duda, J.J.
2003-01-01
The application of population and community ecology to solving real-world problems requires population and community dynamics models that reflect the myriad patterns of interaction among organisms and between the biotic and physical environments. Appropriate models are not hard to construct, but the experimental manipulations needed to evaluate their defining coefficients are often both time consuming and costly, and sometimes environmentally destructive, as well. In this paper we present an empirical approach for finding the coefficients of broadly inclusive models without the need for environmental manipulation, demonstrate the approach with both an animal and a plant example, and suggest possible applications. Software has been developed, and is available from the senior author, with a manual describing both field and analytic procedures.
Adaptive dynamics for physiologically structured population models.
Durinx, Michel; Metz, J A J Hans; Meszéna, Géza
2008-05-01
We develop a systematic toolbox for analyzing the adaptive dynamics of multidimensional traits in physiologically structured population models with point equilibria (sensu Dieckmann et al. in Theor. Popul. Biol. 63:309-338, 2003). Firstly, we show how the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics (Dieckmann and Law in J. Math. Biol. 34:579-612, 1996), an approximation for the rate of evolutionary change in characters under directional selection, can be extended so as to apply to general physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states. Secondly, we show that the invasion fitness function (up to and including second order terms, in the distances of the trait vectors to the singularity) for a community of N coexisting types near an evolutionarily singular point has a rational form, which is model-independent in the following sense: the form depends on the strategies of the residents and the invader, and on the second order partial derivatives of the one-resident fitness function at the singular point. This normal form holds for Lotka-Volterra models as well as for physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states, in discrete as well as continuous time and can thus be considered universal for the evolutionary dynamics in the neighbourhood of singular points. Only in the case of one-dimensional trait spaces or when N = 1 can the normal form be reduced to a Taylor polynomial. Lastly we show, in the form of a stylized recipe, how these results can be combined into a systematic approach for the analysis of the (large) class of evolutionary models that satisfy the above restrictions. PMID:17943289
Stellar population models at high spectral resolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maraston, C.; Strömbäck, G.
2011-12-01
We present new, high-to-intermediate spectral resolution stellar population models, based on four popular libraries of empirical stellar spectra, namely Pickles, ELODIE, STELIB and MILES. These new models are the same as our previous models, but with higher resolution and based on empirical stellar spectra, while keeping other ingredients the same including the stellar energetics, the atmospheric parameters and the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch and the horizontal branch morphology. We further compute very high resolution (R= 20 000) models based on the theoretical stellar library MARCS which extends to the near-infrared. We therefore provide merged high-resolution stellar population models, extending from ˜1000 to 25 000 Å, using our previously published high-resolution theoretical models which extended to the ultraviolet. We compare how these libraries perform in stellar population models and highlight spectral regions where discrepancies are found. We confirm our previous findings that the flux around the V band is lower (in a normalized sense) in models based on empirical libraries than in those based on the BaSeL-Kurucz library, which results in a bluer B-V colour. Most noticeably the theoretical library MARCS gives results fully consistent with the empirical libraries. This same effect is also found in other models using MILES, namely Vazdekis et al. and Conroy & Gunn, even though the latter authors reach the opposite conclusion. The bluer predicted B-V colour (by 0.05 mag in our models) is in better agreement with both the colours of luminous red galaxies and globular cluster data. We test the models on their ability to reproduce, through full spectral fitting, the ages and metallicities of Galactic globular clusters as derived from colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) fitting and find overall good agreement. We also discuss extensively the Lick indices calculated directly on the integrated MILES-based spectral energy distributions
USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS
Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...
Age structure of owned dogs under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area.
Bortoletto, Danielly Vieira; Utsunomiya, Yuri Tani; Perri, Silvia Helena Venturoli; Ferreira, Fernando; Nunes, Cáris Maroni
2016-01-01
The age structure of the dog population is essential for planning and evaluating control programs for zoonotic diseases. We analyzed data of an owned-dog census in order to characterize, for the first time, the structure of a dog population under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area (Panorama, São Paulo State, Brazil) that recorded a dog-culling rate of 28% in the year of the study. Data on 1,329 households and 1,671 owned dogs revealed an owned dog:human ratio of 1:7. The mean age of dogs was estimated at 1.73 years; the age pyramid indicated high birth and mortality rates at the first year of age with an estimated cumulative mortality of 78% at the third year of age and expected life span of 2.75 years. In spite of the high mortality, a growth projection simulation suggested that the population has potential to grow in a logarithmic scale over the years. The estimated parameters can be further applied in models to maximize the impact and minimize financial inputs of visceral leishmaniasis control measures. PMID:27598014
Exploring Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling with Resampling Visualization
Zuo, Fenghua
2014-01-01
Background. In the last decade, population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modeling has spread its influence in the whole process of drug research and development. While targeting the construction of the dose-concentration of a drug based on a population of patients, it shows great flexibility in dealing with sparse samplings and unbalanced designs. The resampling approach has been considered an important statistical tool to assist in PopPK model validation by measuring the uncertainty of parameter estimates and evaluating the influence of individuals. Methods. The current work describes a graphical diagnostic approach for PopPK models by visualizing resampling statistics, such as case deletion and bootstrap. To examine resampling statistics, we adapted visual methods from multivariate analysis, parallel coordinate plots, and multidimensional scaling. Results. Multiple models were fitted, the information of parameter estimates and diagnostics were extracted, and the results were visualized. With careful scaling, the dependencies between different statistics are revealed. Using typical examples, the approach proved to have great capacity to identify influential outliers from the statistical perspective, which deserves special attention in a dosing regimen. Discussion. By combining static graphics with interactive graphics, we are able to explore the multidimensional data from an integrated and systematic perspective. Complementary to current approaches, our proposed method provides a new way for PopPK modeling analysis. PMID:24877118
Element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thomas, Daniel
2015-04-01
I review the implementation of the effects from varying chemical element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling, focusing on α- and Fe-peak elements. A brief overview of the development of such models over the past 30 years is provided, starting with early work on the identification of relevant absorption features in the spectra of early-type galaxies in the 1980s leading to the most recent developments of the past years. Recent highlights include the adoption of new flux calibrated libraries, the inclusion of a wide range of chemical elements, the calculation of error estimates on the model, and the consideration of element variation effects on full spectra. The calibration of such models with globular clusters and some key results on the element ratios measured in early-type galaxies are presented.
Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink.
Weegman, Mitch D; Bearhop, Stuart; Fox, Anthony D; Hilton, Geoff M; Walsh, Alyn J; McDonald, Jennifer L; Hodgson, David J
2016-03-01
Demographic links among fragmented populations are commonly studied as source-sink dynamics, whereby source populations exhibit net recruitment and net emigration, while sinks suffer net mortality but enjoy net immigration. It is commonly assumed that large, persistent aggregations of individuals must be sources, but this ignores the possibility that they are sinks instead, buoyed demographically by immigration. We tested this assumption using Bayesian integrated population modelling of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at their largest wintering site (Wexford, Ireland), combining capture-mark-recapture, census and recruitment data collected from 1982 to 2010. Management for this subspecies occurs largely on wintering areas; thus, study of source-sink dynamics of discrete regular wintering units provides unprecedented insights into population regulation and enables identification of likely processes influencing population dynamics at Wexford and among 70 other Greenland white-fronted goose wintering subpopulations. Using results from integrated population modelling, we parameterized an age-structured population projection matrix to determine the contribution of movement rates (emigration and immigration), recruitment and mortality to the dynamics of the Wexford subpopulation. Survival estimates for juvenile and adult birds at Wexford and adult birds elsewhere fluctuated over the 29-year study period, but were not identifiably different. However, per capita recruitment rates at Wexford in later years (post-1995) were identifiably lower than in earlier years (pre-1995). The observed persistence of the Wexford subpopulation was only possible with high rates of immigration, which exceeded emigration in each year. Thus, despite its apparent stability, Wexford has functioned as a sink over the entire study period. These results demonstrate that even large subpopulations can potentially be sinks, and that movement dynamics (e.g. immigration
Estimating population trends with a linear model
Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.
2003-01-01
We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.
Population momentum: Implications for wildlife management
Koons, D.N.; Rockwell, R.F.; Grand, J.B.
2006-01-01
Maintenance of sustainable wildlife populations is one of the primary purposes of wildlife management. Thus, it is important to monitor and manage population growth over time. Sensitivity analysis of the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) population growth rate to changes in the vital rates is commonly used in management to identify the vital rates that contribute most to population growth. Yet, dynamics associated with the long-term population growth rate only pertain to the special case when there is a stable age (or stage) distribution of individuals in the population. Frequently, this assumption is necessary because age structure is rarely estimated. However, management actions can greatly affect the age distribution of a population. For initially growing and declining populations, we instituted hypothetical management targeted at halting the growth or decline of the population, and measured the effects of a changing age structure on the population dynamics. When we changed vital rates, the age structure became unstable and population momentum caused populations to grow differently than that predicted by the long-term population growth rate. Interestingly, changes in fertility actually reversed the direction of short-term population growth, leading to long-term population sizes that were actually smaller or larger than that when fertility was changed. Population momentum can significantly affect population dynamics and will be an important factor in the use of population models for management.
Quota implementation of the maximum sustainable yield for age-structured fisheries.
Kanik, Zafer; Kucuksenel, Serkan
2016-06-01
One of the main goals stated in the proposals for the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) reform was achieving maximum sustainable yield (MSY) for all European fisheries. In this paper, we propose a fishing rights allocation mechanism or management system, which specifies catch limits for individual fishing fleets to implement MSY harvesting conditions in an age-structured bioeconomic model. An age-structured model in a single species fishery with two fleets having perfect or imperfect fishing selectivity is studied. If fishing technology or gear selectivity depends on the relative age composition of the mature fish stock, fixed harvest proportions, derived from catchability and bycatch coefficients, is not valid anymore. As a result, not only the age-structure and fishing technology but also the estimated level of MSY is steering the allocation of quota shares. The results also show that allocation of quota shares based on historical catches or auctioning may not provide viable solutions to achieve MSY. PMID:27018447
Population Models for Massive Globular Clusters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Young-Wook; Joo, Seok-Joo; Han, Sang-Il; Na, Chongsam; Lim, Dongwook; Roh, Dong-Goo
2015-03-01
Increasing number of massive globular clusters (GCs) in the Milky Way are now turned out to host multiple stellar populations having different heavy element abundances enriched by supernovae. Recent observations have further shown that [CNO/Fe] is also enhanced in metal-rich subpopulations in most of these GCs, including ω Cen and M22 (Marino et al. 2011, 2012). In order to reflect this in our population modeling, we have expanded the parameter space of Y 2 isochrones and horizontal-branch (HB) evolutionary tracks to include the cases of normal and enhanced nitrogen abundances ([N/Fe] = 0.0, 0.8, and 1.6). The observed variations in the total CNO content were reproduced by interpolating these nitrogen enhanced stellar models. Our test simulations with varying N and O abundances show that, once the total CNO sum ([CNO/Fe]) is held constant, both N and O have almost identical effects on the HR diagram (see Fig. 1).
Casillas, E.; Kardong, K.; Kagley, A.; Snider, R.G.; Stein, J.E.
1994-12-31
Age-length relationships, age structure, and reproductive status (fecundity, egg size) of Mytilus edulis from six sites in central Puget Sound and one site in the relatively pristine area of northern Puget Sound were measured. Mussels from urban-associated sites (areas with elevated sediment concentrations of PAHs, PCBs, and toxic and essential metals) exhibited high tissue burdens of these contaminants. Age length relationships, fitted to the von Bertalanffy equation, showed that the growth of mussels from urban-associated areas was similar, but was lower than in mussels from minimally-contaminated environments. Comparison of mussel population age-structure showed that at urban sites, mussels of comparable size were consistently older than mussels from minimally contaminated areas and the mean age of urban populations was higher than that of rural populations. In mussels from urban sites, gonad mass was lower while number of oocytes/g gonad was similar compared to mussels from minimally-contaminated areas of Puget Sound. Thus, in mussels from urban sites fecundity was reduced compared to mussels of comparable age from reference sites. The findings support the hypothesis that mussels from the urban areas exhibit impaired growth, altered population age-structure, and reproductive impairment as a result of accumulation of chemical contaminants.
A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...
Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.
2004-01-01
Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into
Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.
2002-03-01
We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.
Paths for Future Population Aging.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Grigsby, Jill S.
Population aging refers to an entire age structure becoming older. The age structure of a population is the result of three basic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Age structures reflect both past effects and current patterns of these processes. At the town, city, or regional level, migration becomes an important factor in raising…
Effects of Stand age Structure on Regional Carbon Budgets of Forest Ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Song, C.; Woodcock, C. E.
2002-12-01
This study has developed a two-stage modeling scheme to investigate the importance of age structure on regional carbon fluxes for the forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. In the first stage, an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon flux model (IntCarb) at stand scale is developed. IntCarb combines components from the ZELIG and CENTURY models to simulate forest growth and development, and heterotrophic respiration, respectively. Stand scale carbon fluxes simulated by IntCarb strongly depend on stand age. Due to its high variablity over large areas, forest age structure has to be taken into account for realistic estimation of carbon budgets. The RegCarb model is developed to estimate regional scale carbon fluxes based on forest age structure and adjusting for the nonrespiratory carbon losses, such as harvesting. Our initial estimate with RegCarb for the Pacific Northwest of the United States found that this region was a tremendous carbon source to the atmosphere from 1890 to 1990 due to intensive logging of old-growth forest, and is becoming a carbon sink since the last decade. Projections for the role of forests in this region in the global carbon cycle in the future strongly depend on the amount of timber to be harvested, i.e. how the age structure of forests in this region is to be altered.
Modeling populations of rotationally mixed massive stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brott, I.
2011-02-01
Massive stars can be considered as cosmic engines. With their high luminosities, strong stellar winds and violent deaths they drive the evolution of galaxies through-out the history of the universe. Despite the importance of massive stars, their evolution is still poorly understood. Two major issues have plagued evolutionary models of massive stars until today: mixing and mass loss On the main sequence, the effects of mass loss remain limited in the considered mass and metallicity range, this thesis concentrates on the role of mixing in massive stars. This thesis approaches this problem just on the cross road between observations and simulations. The main question: Do evolutionary models of single stars, accounting for the effects of rotation, reproduce the observed properties of real stars. In particular we are interested if the evolutionary models can reproduce the surface abundance changes during the main-sequence phase. To constrain our models we build a population synthesis model for the sample of the VLT-FLAMES Survey of Massive stars, for which star-formation history and rotational velocity distribution are well constrained. We consider the four main regions of the Hunter diagram. Nitrogen un-enriched slow rotators and nitrogen enriched fast rotators that are predicted by theory. Nitrogen enriched slow rotators and nitrogen unenriched fast rotators that are not predicted by our model. We conclude that currently these comparisons are not sufficient to verify the theory of rotational mixing. Physical processes in addition to rotational mixing appear necessary to explain the stars in the later two regions. The chapters of this Thesis have been published in the following Journals: Ch. 2: ``Rotating Massive Main-Sequence Stars I: Grids of Evolutionary Models and Isochrones'', I. Brott, S. E. de Mink, M. Cantiello, N. Langer, A. de Koter, C. J. Evans, I. Hunter, C. Trundle, J.S. Vink submitted to Astronomy & Astrop hysics Ch. 3: ``The VLT-FLAMES Survey of Massive
Landscape Modeling of Lygus hesperus Populations.
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Lygus is a key pest in several of the 200 crops grown in the geographically distinct San Joaquin Valley. Spring weather patterns drive population build-up on host-plants. Habitat maps were created from survey sites in cropping regions of Kern County, CA. Population simulations were used to predict a...
On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption
Hock, Heinrich
2013-01-01
We examine the effects of population aging due to declining fertility and rising elderly life expectancy on consumption possibilities in the presence of intergenerational transfers. Our analysis is based on a highly tractable continuous-time overlapping generations model in which the population is divided into three groups (youth dependents, workers, and elderly dependents) and lifecourse transitions take place in a probabilistic fashion. We show that the consumption-maximizing response to greater longevity in highly developed countries is an increase in fertility. However, with larger transfer payments, the actual fertility response will likely be the opposite, leading to further population aging. PMID:24353374
AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS
We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...
SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK
All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...
Population model for Alaska Peninsula sea otters. Final report
Eberhardt, L.L.; Siniff, D.B.
1988-12-31
This study was conducted to provide a basis for assessing risks of oil spills to sea otter populations along the Alaska Peninsula. The principal efforts were devoted to analyzing the available data on population dynamics. Curves characterizing survivorship and reproduction for sea otters were devised and fitted to several data sets. A detailed review was conducted of methods of assessing population dynamics data, and several new techniques (e.g., bootstrapping) were applied to available data. A simplified model for use with Alaska Peninsula sea otter populations was devised and implemented in a 'spreadsheet' format. Various aspects of model development and data on population size in Alaska Peninsula areas were reviewed.
Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline
2016-02-01
In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in
A linear model of population dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.
2016-08-01
The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).
PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL
PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...
PC BEEPOP - AN ECTOXICOLOGICAL SIMULATION MODEL FOR HONEY BEE POPULATIONS
PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee colony population dynamics. he model consists of a feedback system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, and contaminant exposures. t includes a mortality module (BEEKILL) and a ch...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu
2008-09-01
An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization
Credible ecological risk assessments often need to include analysis of population-level impacts. In the present study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) co...
Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.
2009-05-01
We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1
models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.
Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis
Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.
1992-01-01
Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.
Owen-Smith, Norman
2011-07-01
1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and
Sensitivity analysis of periodic matrix population models.
Caswell, Hal; Shyu, Esther
2012-12-01
Periodic matrix models are frequently used to describe cyclic temporal variation (seasonal or interannual) and to account for the operation of multiple processes (e.g., demography and dispersal) within a single projection interval. In either case, the models take the form of periodic matrix products. The perturbation analysis of periodic models must trace the effects of parameter changes, at each phase of the cycle, on output variables that are calculated over the entire cycle. Here, we apply matrix calculus to obtain the sensitivity and elasticity of scalar-, vector-, or matrix-valued output variables. We apply the method to linear models for periodic environments (including seasonal harvest models), to vec-permutation models in which individuals are classified by multiple criteria, and to nonlinear models including both immediate and delayed density dependence. The results can be used to evaluate management strategies and to study selection gradients in periodic environments. PMID:23316494
A general consumer-resource population model
Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.
2015-01-01
Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.
IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model
Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A.
2015-01-01
Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256
IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model.
Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A
2015-01-01
Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a 'wild' genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256
An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model
Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner; Richard B Chandler; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett
2015-01-01
Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.
A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics
Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.
2011-01-01
Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156
Numerical integration of population models satisfying conservation laws: NSFD methods.
Mickens, Ronald E
2007-10-01
Population models arising in ecology, epidemiology and mathematical biology may involve a conservation law, i.e. the total population is constant. In addition to these cases, other situations may occur for which the total population, asymptotically in time, approach a constant value. Since it is rarely the situation that the equations of motion can be analytically solved to obtain exact solutions, it follows that numerical techniques are needed to provide solutions. However, numerical procedures are only valid if they can reproduce fundamental properties of the differential equations modeling the phenomena of interest. We show that for population models, involving a dynamical conservation law the use of nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) methods allows the construction of discretization schemes such that they are dynamically consistent (DC) with the original differential equations. The paper will briefly discuss the NSFD methodology, the concept of DC, and illustrate their application to specific problems for population models. PMID:22876826
The effect of gender and age structure on municipal waste generation in Poland
Talalaj, Izabela Anna Walery, Maria
2015-06-15
Highlights: • An effect of gender and age structure on municipal waste generation was presented. • The waste accumulation index is influenced by a number of unemployed women. • Greater share of women in society contributes to greater waste production. • A model describing the analyzed dependences was determined. - Abstract: In this study the effect of gender and age structure on municipal waste generation was investigated. The data from 10-year period, from 2001 to 2010 year, were taken into consideration. The following parameters of gender and age structure were analyzed: men and woman quantity, female to male ratio, number of working, pre-working and post-working age men/women, number of unemployed men/women. The results have showed a strong correlation of annual per capita waste generation rate with number of unemployed women (r = 0.70) and female to male ratio (r = 0.81). This indicates that waste generation rate is more depended on ratio of men and women that on quantitative size of each group. Using the regression analysis a model describing the dependence between female to male ratio, number of unemployed woman and waste quantity was determined. The model explains 70% of waste quantity variation. Obtained results can be used both to improve waste management and to a fuller understanding of gender behavior.
A population growth model forced by random, episodic disturbances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peckham, S. D.
2011-12-01
As a first step to quantify and better understand the nature of thresholds in ecosystems, a prototype population dynamics model has been developed and analyzed for the case where a population is subjected to random, episodic disturbances. This model assumes that disturbances occur at random times (following a Poisson event process) and have random magnitudes that determine the fraction of the population that survives the disturbance. Disturbances may be events such as fire, drought, disease or infestation. Between disturbances, the model assumes that population growth is deterministic and can be modeled by an exponential or logistic equation. The model is characterized by time, t, and four other parameters: the initial population size, N0, the per capita growth rate, r, the expected number of disturbance events per unit time, λ , and μ = E(X), where X is the random fraction (between 0 and 1) of the population that survives a given disturbance. What is nice about this simple, stochastic model is that it is mathematically tractable and clearly exhibits threshold behavior that can be computed explicitly in terms of the model parameters. In particular, the long-term behavior of the model is characterized by an easily-computed indicator that is a function of the model parameters. Whenever the model parameters are such that this indicator is less than zero, the expected value of the random population size declines over time and is unsustainable. But whenever it is greater than zero, the expected population size grows, despite the random disturbances. The case where the indicator is zero therefore represents a type of critical threshold for this problem that determines whether or not the population is likely to survive the disturbances. A number of analytic results will be presented along with numerical results from a large number of simulations.
Models of plant populations and communities
Huston, M.
1990-01-01
This document is the overview of the plant section in the book, {und Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology}. A brief description of each of the chapters is provided, as well as a comparison of the models presented in each chapter. Four of the six chapters deal with single species interactions, one dealt with a two species system (plants and pollinators) and one deals with multispecies interactions. Both i-state distribution models and i-state configuration models are discussed. (MHB)
Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations.
Galam, Serge; Javarone, Marco Alberto
2016-01-01
The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated. It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration. PMID:27166677
Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations
2016-01-01
The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated. It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration. PMID:27166677
Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim
2016-06-01
We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.
Population extinction in an inhomogeneous host-pathogen model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bagarti, Trilochan
2016-01-01
We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the lake basin it spreads from one lake to another, eventually spreading to the entire lake basin system in a wave like pattern. The extinction time has been found to depend on the steady state host population and pathogen growth rate. Linear estimate of the extinction time is computed. The steady state host population shows a threshold behavior in the interaction strength for a given growth rate.
Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.
2016-03-01
Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.
Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes
Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad
2013-01-01
Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339
A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi
2006-01-01
Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…
Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds
Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.
2005-01-01
Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.
2013-01-01
Background Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. Results FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. Conclusions State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further
Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie
Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.
1998-01-01
Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.
PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population
Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie
2014-09-15
As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.
Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations.
Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J; Sgro, Allyson E; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj
2015-06-01
Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales-from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations. PMID:26172740
Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj
2015-06-01
Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.
A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.
Shestopaloff, Yuri K
2013-12-01
Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do. PMID:24057917
Defining priorities for dog population management through mathematical modeling.
Santos Baquero, O; Akamine, L A; Amaku, M; Ferreira, F
2016-01-01
We simulated dog population dynamics for a thirty-years period using a logistic growth model. Through sensitivity analyses, we determined the influence of the parameters used in the model. Carrying capacity was the most influential parameter in all simulations. In the owned-dog population, the influence of immigration, abandonment and births was 19%, 16% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity, respectively. In the sterilized owned-dog population, the influence of abandonment, female and male sterilization was 37%, 30% and 27% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the stray population, the influence of abandonment, carrying capacity of the owned-dog population and adoption was 10%, 9% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the sterilized stray population, the influence of births, female sterilization and male sterilization was 45%, 15% and 13% of the influence of the carrying capacity. Other parameters had lower influence values. Modification of the carrying capacity requires different interventions for the owned- and stray-dog populations. Dog trade control is a way to reduce immigration. The evaluation of sterilization effects must focus on the variations in the infertile population fraction. Adoption may improve the effects of the reduction in carrying capacity on the stray-dog population. PMID:26652574
Kagley, Anna N; Kardong, Kyle E; Snider, Robert G; Casillas, Edmundo
2014-07-01
Bivalves are used as sentinel species to detect chemical contaminants in the marine environment, but biological effects on indigenous populations that result from chemical exposure are largely unknown. We assessed age-weight, length-weight relationships, age structure, and reproductive status (i.e. fecundity, egg size) of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis complex from six sites in central Puget Sound, Washington, and one site in the relatively pristine area of northern Puget Sound. Results of this study suggest that mussels from urban areas of Puget Sound exhibit a lower growth rate, altered population age-structure, and potential reproductive impairment as a result of exposure to chemical contaminants. These findings support the use of mussels as sentinel species to assess the biological effects of contaminants on invertebrate populations. PMID:24852611
Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Winkel, Brian J.
2011-01-01
We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…
Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso
2015-01-01
This work deals with mathematical modeling through branching processes. We consider sexually reproducing animal populations where, in each generation, the number of progenitor couples is determined in a non-predictable environment. By using a class of two-sex branching processes, we describe their demographic dynamics and provide several probabilistic and inferential contributions. They include results about the extinction of the population and the estimation of the offspring distribution and its main moments. We also present an application to salmonid populations. PMID:24526259
Generalized population models and the nature of genetic drift.
Der, Ricky; Epstein, Charles L; Plotkin, Joshua B
2011-09-01
The Wright-Fisher model of allele dynamics forms the basis for most theoretical and applied research in population genetics. Our understanding of genetic drift, and its role in suppressing the deterministic forces of Darwinian selection has relied on the specific form of sampling inherent to the Wright-Fisher model and its diffusion limit. Here we introduce and analyze a broad class of forward-time population models that share the same mean and variance as the Wright-Fisher model, but may otherwise differ. The proposed class unifies and further generalizes a number of population-genetic processes of recent interest, including the Λ and Cannings processes. Even though these models all have the same variance effective population size, they encode a rich diversity of alternative forms of genetic drift, with significant consequences for allele dynamics. We characterize in detail the behavior of standard population-genetic quantities across this family of generalized models. Some quantities, such as heterozygosity, remain unchanged; but others, such as neutral absorption times and fixation probabilities under selection, deviate by orders of magnitude from the Wright-Fisher model. We show that generalized population models can produce startling phenomena that differ qualitatively from classical behavior - such as assured fixation of a new mutant despite the presence of genetic drift. We derive the forward-time continuum limits of the generalized processes, analogous to Kimura's diffusion limit of the Wright-Fisher process, and we discuss their relationships to the Kingman and non-Kingman coalescents. Finally, we demonstrate that some non-diffusive, generalized models are more likely, in certain respects, than the Wright-Fisher model itself, given empirical data from Drosophila populations. PMID:21718713
Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis
Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.
2013-01-01
Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.
Peter, Benjamin M; Wegmann, Daniel; Excoffier, Laurent
2010-11-01
Although most natural populations are genetically subdivided, they are often analysed as if they were panmictic units. In particular, signals of past demographic size changes are often inferred from genetic data by assuming that the analysed sample is drawn from a population without any internal subdivision. However, it has been shown that a bottleneck signal can result from the presence of some recent immigrants in a population. It thus appears important to contrast these two alternative scenarios in a model choice procedure to prevent wrong conclusions to be made. We use here an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to infer whether observed patterns of genetic diversity in a given sample are more compatible with it being drawn from a panmictic population having gone through some size change, or from one or several demes belonging to a recent finite island model. Simulations show that we can correctly identify samples drawn from a subdivided population in up to 95% of the cases for a wide range of parameters. We apply our model choice procedure to the case of the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and find conclusive evidence that Western and Eastern chimpanzee samples are drawn from a spatially subdivided population. PMID:20735743
A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate
Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.
1998-01-01
Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.
Simple model of population vulnerability during crisis relocation. Final report
Schmidt, L.A.
1983-01-01
The objective of the study is to estimate the cost in survivors of short warning leading to attack during full nationwide crises relocation. A simulation model of traffic flow over the national interstate road network was developed to predict population vulnerability during a crisis relocation. The model predicts large initial rates of reduction in nationwide vulnerability (half the at-risk population is evacuated in 21 hours) due to the large number of risk areas, reception areas, and over the road network to achieve the traffic plan assumptions of the model are discussed. No unreasonable problems are uncovered in achieving the major production of the model.
Statistical physics model of an evolving population
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sznajd-Weron, K.; Pȩkalski, A.
1999-12-01
There are many possible approaches by a theoretical physicist to problems of biological evolution. Some focus on physically interesting features, like the self-organized criticality (P. Bak, K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. Lett 71 (1993); N. Vadewalle, M. Ausloos, Physica D 90 (1996) 262). Others put on more effort taking into account factors considered by biologists to be important in determining one or another aspect of biological evolution (D. Derrida, P.G. Higgs, J. Phys. A 24 (1991) L985; I. Mróz, A. Pȩkalski, K. Sznajd-Weron, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76 (1996) 3025; A. Pȩkalski, Physica A 265 (1999) 255). The intrinsic complexity of the problem enforces nevertheless drastic simplifications. Certain consolation may come from the fact that the mathematical models used by biologists themselves are quite often even more “coarse grained”.
A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations
Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.
2008-01-01
The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.
Developing population models with data from marked individuals
Hae Yeong Ryu; Kevin T. Shoemaker; Eva Kneip; Anna Pidgeon; Patricia Heglund; Brooke Bateman; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya
2016-01-01
Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method
Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models
McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.
2001-01-01
One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.
Nedorezov, L V
2015-01-01
A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals. PMID:26606790
An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size
Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.
1999-01-01
Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.
Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals
Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew
2014-01-01
The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.
Student-Teacher Population Growth Model. Working Paper.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zabrowski, Edward K.; And Others
This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…
A POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER: SHEDS-PM
The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has developed a population exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) that will be publicly available in Fall 2002. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model uses a probabilistic approach ...
Linford, Robyn; Gardner, Preston; Coleman, Jennifer; Fine, Kari
2008-01-01
Honeybee colonies are highly integrated functional units characterized by a pronounced division of labor. Division of labor among workers is mainly age-based, with younger individuals focusing on in-hive tasks and older workers performing the more hazardous foraging activities. Thus, experimental disruption of the age composition of the worker hive population is expected to have profound consequences for colony function. Adaptive demography theory predicts that the natural hive age composition represents a colony-level adaptation and thus results in optimal hive performance. Alternatively, the hive age composition may be an epiphenomenon, resulting from individual life history optimization. We addressed these predictions by comparing individual worker longevity and brood production in hives that were composed of a single age cohort, two distinct age cohorts, and hives that had a continuous, natural age distribution. Four experimental replicates showed that colonies with a natural age composition did not consistently have a higher life expectancy and/or brood production than the single cohort or double cohort hives. Instead, a complex interplay of age structure, environmental conditions, colony size, brood production, and individual mortality emerged. A general trade-off between worker life expectancy and colony productivity was apparent, and the transition from in-hive tasks to foraging was the most significant predictor of worker lifespan irrespective of the colony age structure. We conclude that the natural age structure of honeybee hives is not a colony-level adaptation. Furthermore, our results show that honeybees exhibit pronounced demographic plasticity in addition to behavioral plasticity to react to demographic disturbances of their societies. PMID:18663386
Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.
Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay
2016-08-01
Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations. PMID:27154920
On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.
Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua
2013-09-01
Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. PMID:23865502
Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures
Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.
1991-01-01
The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.
Multistability in simplest models of the population dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhdanova, Oksana L.; Frisman, Efim Ya.
2016-06-01
The investigation of dynamics behavior of population number and genetic structure has been conducted for a homogeneous limited population influenced by density-dependent selection in single di-allelic genetic locus. The detailed investigation of the mechanisms of the loss of stability in the considered model is carried out. It is shown that coexistence of several different asymptotic dynamic regimes (with own attraction basins) is possible in numerous enough parametric regions which are meaningful biologically.
Mixture regression models for closed population capture-recapture data.
Tounkara, Fodé; Rivest, Louis-Paul
2015-09-01
In capture-recapture studies, the use of individual covariates has been recommended to get stable population estimates. However, some residual heterogeneity might still exist and ignoring such heterogeneity could lead to underestimating the population size (N). In this work, we explore two new models with capture probabilities depending on both covariates and unobserved random effects, to estimate the size of a population. Inference techniques including Horvitz-Thompson estimate and confidence intervals for the population size, are derived. The selection of a particular model is carried out using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). First, we extend the random effect model of Darroch et al. (1993, Journal of American Statistical Association 88, 1137-1148) to handle unit level covariates and discuss its limitations. The second approach is a generalization of the traditional zero-truncated binomial model that includes a random effect to account for an unobserved heterogeneity. This approach provides useful tools for inference about N, since key quantities such as moments, likelihood functions and estimates of N and their standard errors have closed form expressions. Several models for the unobserved heterogeneity are available and the marginal capture probability is expressed using the Logit and the complementary Log-Log link functions. The sensitivity of the inference to the specification of a model is also investigated through simulations. A numerical example is presented. We compare the performance of the proposed estimator with that obtained under model Mh of Huggins (1989 Biometrika 76, 130-140). PMID:25963047
Dynamical models of a sample of Population II stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Levison, H. F.; Richstone, D. O.
1986-09-01
Dynamical models are constructed in order to investigate the implications of recent kinematic data of distant Population II stars on the emissivity distribution of those stars. Models are constructed using a modified Schwarzschild method in two extreme scale-free potentials, spherical and E6 elliptical. Both potentials produce flat rotation curves and velocity dispersion profiles. In all models, the distribution of stars in this sample is flat. Moreover, it is not possible to construct a model with a strictly spheroidal emissivity distribution. Most models have dimples at the poles. The dynamics of the models indicate that the system is supported by both the third integral and z angular momentum.
Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model
Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.
2014-11-12
The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.
Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.
2014-11-01
The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.
Exploring the vertical age structure of the Galactic disc
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casagrande, Luca
While in external or high-redshift galaxies we can only measure integrated stellar properties at best, the Milky Way offers us the unique opportunity to study its individual baryonic components, including stars. We use oscillations measured in red giant stars by the Kepler satellite to derive stellar ages and explore the vertical age structure across few kpc of the Milky Way disc. We find that old stars dominate at increasing Galactic heights, whereas closer to the plane a rich zoology of ages exists. The age distribution of stars shows a smooth distribution over the last 10 Gyr, which together with a flat age-metallicity relation is consistent with a quiescent evolution for the Milky Way disc since a redshift of about two.
Exploring the vertical age structure of the Galactic disc
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casagrande, Luca; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Schlesinger, Katharine J.; Stello, Dennis; Huber, Daniel; Serenelli, Aldo; Schoenrich, Ralph; Asplund, Martin; Feltzing, Sofia
2015-08-01
While in external or high-redshift galaxies we can only measure integrated stellar properties at best, the Milky Way offers us the unique opportunity to study its individual baryonic components, including stars. We use oscillations measured in giant stars by the Kepler satellite to derive stellar ages and explore the vertical age structure across few kpc of the Milky Way disc. We find that old stars dominate at increasing Galactic heights, whereas closer to the plane a rich zoology of ages exists. The age distribution of stars shows a smooth decline over the last 10 Gyr, which together with a flat age-metallicity relation is consistent with a quiescent evolution for the Milky Way disc since a redshift of about two.
Model estimation of energy flow in Oregon coastal seabird populations
Wiens, J.A.; Scott, J.M.
1976-01-01
A computer simulation model was used to explore the patterns and magnitudes of population density changes and population energy demands in Oregon populations of Sooty Shear-waters, Leach?s Storm-Petrels, Brandt?s Cormorants, and Common Murres. The species differ in seasonal distribution and abundance, with shearwaters attaining high densities during their migratory movements through Oregon waters, and murres exhibiting the greatest seasonal stability in population numbers. On a unit area basis, annual energy flow is greatest through murre and cormorant populations. However, because shearwaters occupy a larger area during their transit, they dominate the total energy flow through the four-species seabird ?community.?.....Consumption of various prey types is estimated by coupling model output of energy demands with information on dietary habits. This analysis suggests that murres annually consume nearly twice as many herring as any other prey and consume approximately equal quantities of anchovy, smelt, cod, and rockfish. Cormorants consume a relatively small quantity of bottom-dwelling fish, while stormpetrels take roughly equal quantities of euphausiids and hydrozoans. Anchovies account for 43% of the 62,506 metric tons of prey the four species are estimated to consume annually; 86% of this anchovy consumption is by shearwaters. The consumption of pelagic fishes by these four populations within the neritic zone may represent as much as 22% of the annual production of these fish.
Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cáceres, Manuel O.
2014-08-01
This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.
Population based models of cortical drug response: insights from anaesthesia
Bojak, Ingo; Liley, David T. J.
2008-01-01
A great explanatory gap lies between the molecular pharmacology of psychoactive agents and the neurophysiological changes they induce, as recorded by neuroimaging modalities. Causally relating the cellular actions of psychoactive compounds to their influence on population activity is experimentally challenging. Recent developments in the dynamical modelling of neural tissue have attempted to span this explanatory gap between microscopic targets and their macroscopic neurophysiological effects via a range of biologically plausible dynamical models of cortical tissue. Such theoretical models allow exploration of neural dynamics, in particular their modification by drug action. The ability to theoretically bridge scales is due to a biologically plausible averaging of cortical tissue properties. In the resulting macroscopic neural field, individual neurons need not be explicitly represented (as in neural networks). The following paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction to the mean field population modelling of drug action and its recent successes in modelling anaesthesia. PMID:19003456
Modeling population access to New Zealand public hospitals
Brabyn, Lars; Skelly, Chris
2002-01-01
This paper demonstrates a method for estimating the geographical accessibility of public hospitals. Cost path analysis was used to determine the minimum travel time and distance to the closest hospital via a road network. This analysis was applied to 38,000 census enumeration district centroids in New Zealand allowing geographical access to be linked to local populations. Average time and distance statistics have been calculated for local populations by modeling the total travel of a population if everybody visited a hospital once. These types of statistics can be generated for different population groups and enable comparisons to be made between regions. This study has shown that the northern and southern parts of New Zealand have high average travel times to hospital services. PMID:12459048
The MIUSCAT stellar population models: constraints from optical photometry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ricciardelli, E.; Vazdekis, A.; Cenarro, A. J.; Falcón-Barroso, J.
2013-05-01
We present the spectral extension of our stellar population synthesis models based on the MILES and CaT empirical stellar spectral libraries. For this purpose we combine these two libraries with the Indo-US to construct composite stellar spectra to feed our models. The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) computed with these models and the originally published models are combined to construct composite SEDs for single-age, single-metallicity stellar populations (SSPs) covering the range λλ3465 -- 9469 Å at resolution FWHM =2.51 Å. We also show a comprehensive comparison of the MIUSCAT models with photometric data of globular clusters and early-type galaxies. The models compare remarkably well with the integrated colours of Milky Way globular clusters in the optical range. On the other hand we find that the colour relations of nearby early-type galaxies are still a challenge for present-day stellar population synthesis models. We investigate a number of possible explanations and establish the importance of α-enhanced models to bring down the discrepancy with observations.
GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes
Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.
1999-03-04
Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data.
Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models
McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.
2011-01-01
Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.
Birth-death branching models. Application to African elephant populations.
Corbacho, Casimiro; Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso
2013-09-01
Branching models have a long history of biological applications, particularly in population dynamics. In this work, our interest is the development of mathematical models to describe the demographic dynamics of socially structured animal populations, focusing our attention on lineages, usually matrilines, as the basic structure in the population. Significant efforts have been made to develop models based on the assumption that all individuals behave identically with respect to reproduction. However, the reproduction phase has a large random component that involves not only demographic but also environmental factors that change across range distribution of species. In the present work, we introduce new classes of birth-death branching models which take such factors into account. We assume that both, the offspring probability distribution and the death probabilities may be different in each generation, changing either predictably or unpredictably in relation to habitat features. We consider the genealogical tree generated by observation of the process until a pre-set generation. We determine the probability distributions of the random variables representing the number of dead or living individuals having at least one ancestor alive, living individuals whose ancestors are all dead, and dead individuals whose ancestors are all dead, explicitly obtaining their principal moments. Also, we derive the probability distributions corresponding to the partial and total numbers of such biological variables, obtaining in particular the distribution of the total number of matriarchs in the genealogical tree. We apply the proposed models to describe the demographic dynamics of African elephant populations living in different habitats. PMID:23648183
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook
2013-01-01
We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and α-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.
Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook
2013-01-15
We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and {alpha}-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.
Pharmacogenomic implications of population admixture: Brazil as a model case.
Suarez-Kurtz, Guilherme; Paula, Daniela Polessa; Struchiner, Claudio J
2014-02-01
The heterogeneous Brazilian population, with European, African and Amerindian ancestral roots is a model case for exploring the impact of population admixture on the frequency distribution of polymorphisms in pharmacogenes, and the design and interpretation of pharmacogenomics trials. Examples drawn from studies carried out by researchers of the Brazilian pharmacogenomics network, support the following conclusions: the distribution of polymorphisms varies across geographical regions and self-reported 'race/color' categories, and is best modeled as continuous functions of individual proportions of European and African ancestry; the differential frequency of polymorphisms impacts the calculations of sample sizes required for adequate statistical power in clinical trials performed in different segments of the Brazilian population; and extrapolation of pharmacogenomics data from well-defined ethnic groups to Brazilians is plagued with uncertainty. Data for warfarin and tacrolimus are reviewed to highlight the advantages and challenges of performing pharmacogenomic trials in Brazilians. PMID:24444410
Modeling Population Exposures to Silver Nanoparticles Present in Consumer Products
Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.
2014-01-01
Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (Geographic Information System) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human Life Stage Analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employs screening Microenvironmental Modeling and Intake Fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically-relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters. PMID:25745354
An Experimental Approach to Mathematical Modeling in Biology
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ledder, Glenn
2008-01-01
The simplest age-structured population models update a population vector via multiplication by a matrix. These linear models offer an opportunity to introduce mathematical modeling to students of limited mathematical sophistication and background. We begin with a detailed discussion of mathematical modeling, particularly in a biological context.…
Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new mod...
Age structure of refractory interstellar dust and isotopic consequences
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clayton, Donald D.; Scowen, Paul; Liffman, Kurt
1989-01-01
A sputtering and recycling Monte Carlo model, developed by Liffman and Clayton (1988) is used to calculate the distribution of existence times of the matter in interstellar dust composed of refractory metals. The mean age of each dust particle is defined not as the time it has existed but rather as the mass-weighted existence times of its parts at t = 6 Gyr of the modeled solar system formation. It is shown that Galactic evolution generates a mean correlation, applying to large numbers of particles binned according to size rather than according to individual particles, whose mean ages fluctuate statistically. The cosmochemical consequence is that if interstellar particles can be dynamically sorted into separate size populations during the aggregation history of solar system bodies, the collections of larger grains will constitute matter that is chemically older than collections of smaller grains. The macroscopic age difference generates isotopic anomalies by virtue of the time dependence of the secondary/primary nucleosynthesis yields. Results are compared with three different prescriptions for the sputtering of interstellar dust.
Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.
2008-12-01
Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are
A model agreement for genetic research in socially identifiable populations.
Foster, M W; Bernsten, D; Carter, T H
1998-09-01
Genetic research increasingly focuses on population-specific human genetic diversity. However, the naming of a human population in public databases and scientific publications entails collective risks for its members. Those collective risks can be evaluated and protections can be put in place by the establishment of a dialogue with the subject population, before a research study is initiated. Here we describe an agreement to undertake genetic research with a Native American tribe. We identified the culturally appropriate public and private social units within which community members are accustomed to make decisions about health. We then engaged those units in a process of communal discourse. In their discourses about our proposed study, community members expressed most concern about culturally specific implications. We also found that, in this population, private social units were more influential in communal decision making than were public authorities. An agreement was reached that defined the scope of research, provided options for naming the population in publications (including anonymity), and addressed the distribution of royalties from intellectual property, the future use of archival samples, and specific cultural concerns. We found that informed consent by individuals could not fully address these collective issues. This approach may serve as a general model for the undertaking of population-specific genetic studies. PMID:9718343
Can modeling improve estimation of desert tortoise population densities?
Nussear, K.E.; Tracy, C.R.
2007-01-01
The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of g0 due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.
Modelling Spread of Oncolytic Viruses in Heterogeneous Cell Populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ellis, Michael; Dobrovolny, Hana
2014-03-01
One of the most promising areas in current cancer research and treatment is the use of viruses to attack cancer cells. A number of oncolytic viruses have been identified to date that possess the ability to destroy or neutralize cancer cells while inflicting minimal damage upon healthy cells. Formulation of predictive models that correctly describe the evolution of infected tumor systems is critical to the successful application of oncolytic virus therapy. A number of different models have been proposed for analysis of the oncolytic virus-infected tumor system, with approaches ranging from traditional coupled differential equations such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models, to contemporary modeling frameworks based on neural networks and cellular automata. Existing models are focused on tumor cells and the effects of virus infection, and offer the potential for improvement by including effects upon normal cells. We have recently extended the traditional framework to a 2-cell model addressing the full cellular system including tumor cells, normal cells, and the impacts of viral infection upon both populations. Analysis of the new framework reveals complex interaction between the populations and potential inability to simultaneously eliminate the virus and tumor populations.
A frictional population model of seismicity rate change
Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.
2005-01-01
We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
The effect of gender and age structure on municipal waste generation in Poland.
Talalaj, Izabela Anna; Walery, Maria
2015-06-01
In this study the effect of gender and age structure on municipal waste generation was investigated. The data from 10-year period, from 2001 to 2010 year, were taken into consideration. The following parameters of gender and age structure were analyzed: men and woman quantity, female to male ratio, number of working, pre-working and post-working age men/women, number of unemployed men/women. The results have showed a strong correlation of annual per capita waste generation rate with number of unemployed women (r=0.70) and female to male ratio (r=0.81). This indicates that waste generation rate is more depended on ratio of men and women that on quantitative size of each group. Using the regression analysis a model describing the dependence between female to male ratio, number of unemployed woman and waste quantity was determined. The model explains 70% of waste quantity variation. Obtained results can be used both to improve waste management and to a fuller understanding of gender behavior. PMID:25843355
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
King, Pat; Landahl, John
This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…
Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations
Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.
2001-01-01
Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.
A mathematical model of syphilis transmission in an MSM population.
Saad-Roy, C M; Shuai, Zhisheng; van den Driessche, P
2016-07-01
Syphilis is caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum, and is a sexually transmitted disease with multiple stages. A model of transmission of syphilis in an MSM population (there has recently been a resurgence of syphilis in such populations) that includes infection stages and treatment is formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The control reproduction number is calculated, and it is proved that if this threshold parameter is below one, syphilis dies out; otherwise, if it is greater than one, it is shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and that for certain special cases, this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Using data from the literature on MSM populations, numerical methods are used to determine the variation and robustness of the control reproduction number with respect to the model parameters, and to determine adequate treatment rates for syphilis eradication. By assuming a closed population and no return to susceptibility, an epidemic model is obtained. Final outbreak sizes are numerically determined for various parameter values, and its variation and robustness to parameter value changes is also investigated. Results quantify the importance of early treatment for syphilis control. PMID:27071977
Two-population dynamics in a growing network model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan
2012-02-01
We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.
A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards
Koford, Rolf R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.
1992-01-01
We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.
ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.
2010-01-01
The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.
Computational models of populations of bacteria and lytic phage.
Krysiak-Baltyn, Konrad; Martin, Gregory J O; Stickland, Anthony D; Scales, Peter J; Gras, Sally L
2016-11-01
The use of phages to control and reduce numbers of unwanted bacteria can be traced back to the early 1900s, when phages were explored as a tool to treat infections before the wide scale use of antibiotics. Recently, phage therapy has received renewed interest as a method to treat multiresistant bacteria. Phages are also widely used in the food industry to prevent the growth of certain bacteria in foods, and are currently being explored as a tool for use in bioremediation and wastewater treatment. Despite the large body of biological research on phages, relatively little attention has been given to computational modeling of the population dynamics of phage and bacterial interactions. The earliest model was described by Campbell in the 1960s. Subsequent modifications to this model include partial or complete resistance, multiple phage binding sites, and spatial heterogeneity. This review provides a general introduction to modeling of the population dynamics of bacteria and phage. The review introduces the basic model and relevant concepts and evaluates more complex variations of the basic model published to date, including a model of disease epidemics caused by infectious bacteria. Finally, the shortcomings and potential ways to improve the models are discussed. PMID:26828960
Delayed population models with Allee effects and exploitation.
Liz, Eduardo; Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso
2015-02-01
Allee effects make populations more vulnerable to extinction, especially under severe harvesting or predation. Using a delay-differential equation modeling the evolution of a single-species population subject to constant effort harvesting, we show that the interplay between harvest strength and Allee effects leads not only to collapses due to overexploitation; large delays can interact with Allee effects to produce extinction at population densities that would survive for smaller time delays. In case of bistability, our estimations on the basins of attraction of the two coexisting attractors improve some recent results in this direction. Moreover, we show that the persistent attractor can exhibit bubbling: a stable equilibrium loses its stability as harvesting effort increases, giving rise to sustained oscillations, but higher mortality rates stabilize the equilibrium again. PMID:25811339
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Biermann, P.; Silk, J.
1976-01-01
Close encounters between two spherical galaxies of equal size and consisting of only one stellar population are calculated using models of elliptical galaxies constructed according to King's (1966) method. The mass loss and the change in internal energy are computed under the assumption that the stars do not change their velocity or density distributions during the encounters. The results for a specific case are compared with the calculations of Gallagher and Ostriker (1972), who employed the observed brightness distribution and the derived density distribution of the E1 galaxy NGC 3379. For models with one stellar population, the results suggest that the radius of a galactic halo would have to be at least 200 kpc for appreciable mass loss to occur over the history of a galaxy in a rich cluster. The calculations are then extended to include a halo population characterized by a high central velocity dispersion. In this case, it is found that the halo population of sufficiently large galaxies can be dispersed without appreciably affecting the main population. It is suggested that the missing mass of many clusters of galaxies may be located in an intergalactic sea of faint stars making up an envelope for the centrally located gE galaxies.
Internal models for interpreting neural population activity during sensorimotor control
Golub, Matthew D; Yu, Byron M; Chase, Steven M
2015-01-01
To successfully guide limb movements, the brain takes in sensory information about the limb, internally tracks the state of the limb, and produces appropriate motor commands. It is widely believed that this process uses an internal model, which describes our prior beliefs about how the limb responds to motor commands. Here, we leveraged a brain-machine interface (BMI) paradigm in rhesus monkeys and novel statistical analyses of neural population activity to gain insight into moment-by-moment internal model computations. We discovered that a mismatch between subjects’ internal models and the actual BMI explains roughly 65% of movement errors, as well as long-standing deficiencies in BMI speed control. We then used the internal models to characterize how the neural population activity changes during BMI learning. More broadly, this work provides an approach for interpreting neural population activity in the context of how prior beliefs guide the transformation of sensory input to motor output. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.10015.001 PMID:26646183
Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations
Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.
2013-01-01
The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.
A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics
Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.
2004-01-01
A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.
Bayesian Modeling of Haplotype Effects in Multiparent Populations
Zhang, Zhaojun; Wang, Wei; Valdar, William
2014-01-01
A general Bayesian model, Diploffect, is described for estimating the effects of founder haplotypes at quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected in multiparental genetic populations; such populations include the Collaborative Cross (CC), Heterogeneous Socks (HS), and many others for which local genetic variation is well described by an underlying, usually probabilistically inferred, haplotype mosaic. Our aim is to provide a framework for coherent estimation of haplotype and diplotype (haplotype pair) effects that takes into account the following: uncertainty in haplotype composition for each individual; uncertainty arising from small sample sizes and infrequently observed haplotype combinations; possible effects of dominance (for noninbred subjects); genetic background; and that provides a means to incorporate data that may be incomplete or has a hierarchical structure. Using the results of a probabilistic haplotype reconstruction as prior information, we obtain posterior distributions at the QTL for both haplotype effects and haplotype composition. Two alternative computational approaches are supplied: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and a procedure based on importance sampling of integrated nested Laplace approximations. Using simulations of QTL in the incipient CC (pre-CC) and Northport HS populations, we compare the accuracy of Diploffect, approximations to it, and more commonly used approaches based on Haley–Knott regression, describing trade-offs between these methods. We also estimate effects for three QTL previously identified in those populations, obtaining posterior intervals that describe how the phenotype might be affected by diplotype substitutions at the modeled locus. PMID:25236455
Efficient control of population structure in model organism association mapping.
Kang, Hyun Min; Zaitlen, Noah A; Wade, Claire M; Kirby, Andrew; Heckerman, David; Daly, Mark J; Eskin, Eleazar
2008-03-01
Genomewide association mapping in model organisms such as inbred mouse strains is a promising approach for the identification of risk factors related to human diseases. However, genetic association studies in inbred model organisms are confronted by the problem of complex population structure among strains. This induces inflated false positive rates, which cannot be corrected using standard approaches applied in human association studies such as genomic control or structured association. Recent studies demonstrated that mixed models successfully correct for the genetic relatedness in association mapping in maize and Arabidopsis panel data sets. However, the currently available mixed-model methods suffer from computational inefficiency. In this article, we propose a new method, efficient mixed-model association (EMMA), which corrects for population structure and genetic relatedness in model organism association mapping. Our method takes advantage of the specific nature of the optimization problem in applying mixed models for association mapping, which allows us to substantially increase the computational speed and reliability of the results. We applied EMMA to in silico whole-genome association mapping of inbred mouse strains involving hundreds of thousands of SNPs, in addition to Arabidopsis and maize data sets. We also performed extensive simulation studies to estimate the statistical power of EMMA under various SNP effects, varying degrees of population structure, and differing numbers of multiple measurements per strain. Despite the limited power of inbred mouse association mapping due to the limited number of available inbred strains, we are able to identify significantly associated SNPs, which fall into known QTL or genes identified through previous studies while avoiding an inflation of false positives. An R package implementation and webserver of our EMMA method are publicly available. PMID:18385116
Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.
1995-12-01
A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.
Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling
Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.
1995-01-01
Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee
Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry
2016-08-01
Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.
A paradox in individual-based models of populations
van der Meer, Jaap
2016-01-01
The standard dynamic energy budget model is widely used to describe the physiology of individual animals. It assumes that assimilation rate scales with body surface area, whereas maintenance rate scales with body volume. When the model is used as the building block of a population model, only limited dynamical behaviour, the so-called juvenile-driven cycles, emerges. The reason is that in the model juveniles are competitively superior over adults, because juveniles have a higher surface area-to-volume ratio. Maintenance requirements for adults are therefore relatively large, and a reduced assimilation rate as a result of lowered food levels will easily become insufficient. Here, an alternative dynamic energy budget model is introduced that gives rise to adult-driven cycles, which may be closer to what is often observed in reality. However, this comes at the price of a rather odd description of the individual, in that maintenance scales with body area and assimilation rate with body volume, resulting in unbounded exponential body growth. I make a plea to solve the paradox and come up with reliable descriptions at both the individual and the population level. PMID:27413533
A paradox in individual-based models of populations.
van der Meer, Jaap
2016-01-01
The standard dynamic energy budget model is widely used to describe the physiology of individual animals. It assumes that assimilation rate scales with body surface area, whereas maintenance rate scales with body volume. When the model is used as the building block of a population model, only limited dynamical behaviour, the so-called juvenile-driven cycles, emerges. The reason is that in the model juveniles are competitively superior over adults, because juveniles have a higher surface area-to-volume ratio. Maintenance requirements for adults are therefore relatively large, and a reduced assimilation rate as a result of lowered food levels will easily become insufficient. Here, an alternative dynamic energy budget model is introduced that gives rise to adult-driven cycles, which may be closer to what is often observed in reality. However, this comes at the price of a rather odd description of the individual, in that maintenance scales with body area and assimilation rate with body volume, resulting in unbounded exponential body growth. I make a plea to solve the paradox and come up with reliable descriptions at both the individual and the population level. PMID:27413533
CALIBRATING STELLAR POPULATION MODELS WITH MAGELLANIC CLOUD STAR CLUSTERS
Noeel, N. E. D.; Carollo, C. M.; Greggio, L.; Renzini, A.; Maraston, C.
2013-07-20
Stellar population models are commonly calculated using star clusters as calibrators for those evolutionary stages that depend on free parameters. However, discrepancies exist among different models, even if similar sets of calibration clusters are used. With the aim of understanding these discrepancies, and of improving the calibration procedure, we consider a set of 43 Magellanic Cloud (MC) clusters, taking age and photometric information from the literature. We carefully assign ages to each cluster based on up-to-date determinations, ensuring that these are as homogeneous as possible. To cope with statistical fluctuations, we stack the clusters in five age bins, deriving for each of them integrated luminosities and colors. We find that clusters become abruptly red in optical and optical-infrared colors as they age from {approx}0.6 to {approx}1 Gyr, which we interpret as due to the development of a well-populated thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB). We argue that other studies missed this detection because of coarser age binnings. Maraston and Girardi et al. models predict the presence of a populated TP-AGB at {approx}0.6 Gyr, with a correspondingly very red integrated color, at variance with the data; Bruzual and Charlot and Conroy models run within the error bars at all ages. The discrepancy between the synthetic colors of Maraston models and the average colors of MC clusters results from the now obsolete age scale adopted. Finally, our finding that the TP-AGB phase appears to develop between {approx}0.6 and 1 Gyr is dependent on the adopted age scale for the clusters and may have important implications for stellar evolution.
Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.
2014-07-01
Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.
Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.
Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V
2014-01-01
Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020
Genetic drift in an infinite population. The pseudohitchhiking model.
Gillespie, J H
2000-01-01
Selected substitutions at one locus can induce stochastic dynamics that resemble genetic drift at a closely linked neutral locus. The pseudohitchhiking model is a one-locus model that approximates these effects and can be used to describe the major consequences of linked selection. As the changes in neutral allele frequencies when hitchhiking are rapid, diffusion theory is not appropriate for studying neutral dynamics. A stationary distribution and some results on substitution processes are presented that use the theory of continuous-time Markov processes with discontinuous sample paths. The coalescent of the pseudohitchhiking model is shown to have a random number of branches at each node, which leads to a frequency spectrum that is different from that of the equilibrium neutral model. If genetic draft, the name given to these induced stochastic effects, is a more important stochastic force than genetic drift, then a number of paradoxes that have plagued population genetics disappear. PMID:10835409
Richards-like two species population dynamics model.
Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto
2014-12-01
The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794
Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations
Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.
2014-01-01
Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020
Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.
1998-01-01
Specification of an appropriate model is critical to valid stalistical inference. Given the "true model" for the data is unknown, the goal of model selection is to select a plausible approximating model that balances model bias and sampling variance. Model selection based on information criteria such as AIC or its variant AICc, or criteria like CAIC, has proven useful in a variety of contexts including the analysis of open-population capture-recapture data. These criteria have not been intensively evaluated for closed-population capture-recapture models, which are integer parameter models used to estimate population size (N), and there is concern that they will not perform well. To address this concern, we evaluated AIC, AICc, and CAIC model selection for closed-population capture-recapture models by empirically assessing the quality of inference for the population size parameter N. We found that AIC-, AICc-, and CAIC-selected models had smaller relative mean squared errors than randomly selected models, but that confidence interval coverage on N was poor unless unconditional variance estimates (which incorporate model uncertainty) were used to compute confidence intervals. Overall, AIC and AICc outperformed CAIC, and are preferred to CAIC for selection among the closed-population capture-recapture models we investigated. A model averaging approach to estimation, using AIC. AICc, or CAIC to estimate weights, was also investigated and proved superior to estimation using AIC-, AICc-, or CAIC-selected models. Our results suggested that, for model averaging, AIC or AICc. should be favored over CAIC for estimating weights.
MIUSCAT: extended MILES spectral coverage - I. Stellar population synthesis models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vazdekis, A.; Ricciardelli, E.; Cenarro, A. J.; Rivero-González, J. G.; Díaz-García, L. A.; Falcón-Barroso, J.
2012-07-01
We extend the spectral range of our stellar population synthesis models based on the MILES and CaT empirical stellar spectral libraries. For this purpose, we combine these two libraries with the Indo-U.S. to construct composite stellar spectra to feed our models. The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) computed with these models and the originally published models are combined to construct composite SEDs for single-age, single-metallicity stellar populations (SSPs) covering the range λλ3465-9469 Å at moderately high and uniform resolution (full width at half-maximum = 2.51 Å). The colours derived from these SSP SEDs provide good fits to Galactic globular cluster data. We find that the colours involving redder filters are very sensitive to the initial mass function (IMF), as well as a number of features and molecular bands throughout the spectra. To illustrate the potential use of these models, we focus on the Na I doublet at 8200 Å and with the aid of the newly synthesized SSP model SEDs, we define a new IMF-sensitive index that is based on this feature, which overcomes various limitations from previous index definitions for low-velocity dispersion stellar systems. We propose an index-index diagram based on this feature and the neighbouring Ca II triplet at 8600 Å, to constrain the IMF if the age and [Na/Fe] abundance are known. Finally we also show a survey-oriented spectrophotometric application which evidences the accurate flux calibration of these models for carrying out reliable spectral fitting techniques. These models are available through our user-friendly website.
Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations
Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing
2016-01-01
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512
Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations.
Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing
2016-04-01
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512
Predicting neonatal pharmacokinetics from prior data using population pharmacokinetic modeling.
Wang, Jian; Edginton, Andrea N; Avant, Debbie; Burckart, Gilbert J
2015-10-01
Selection of the first dose for neonates in clinical trials is very challenging. The objective of this analysis was to assess if a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model developed with data from infants to adults is predictive of neonatal clearance and to evaluate what age range of prior PK data is needed for informative modeling to predict neonate exposure. Two sources of pharmacokinetic data from 8 drugs were used to develop population models: (1) data from all patients > 2 years of age, and (2) data from all nonneonatal patients aged > 28 days. The prediction error based on the models using data from subjects > 2 years of age showed bias toward overprediction, with median average fold error (AFE) for CL predicted/CLobserved greater than 1.5. The bias for predicting neonatal PK was improved when using all prior PK data including infants as opposed to an assessment without infant PK data, with the median AFE 0.91. As an increased number of pediatric trials are conducted in neonates under the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act, dose selection should be based on the best estimates of neonatal pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics prior to conducting efficacy and safety studies in neonates. PMID:25907280
Optimization modeling to maximize population access to comprehensive stroke centers
Branas, Charles C.; Kasner, Scott E.; Wolff, Catherine; Williams, Justin C.; Albright, Karen C.; Carr, Brendan G.
2015-01-01
Objective: The location of comprehensive stroke centers (CSCs) is critical to ensuring rapid access to acute stroke therapies; we conducted a population-level virtual trial simulating change in access to CSCs using optimization modeling to selectively convert primary stroke centers (PSCs) to CSCs. Methods: Up to 20 certified PSCs per state were selected for conversion to maximize the population with 60-minute CSC access by ground and air. Access was compared across states based on region and the presence of state-level emergency medical service policies preferentially routing patients to stroke centers. Results: In 2010, there were 811 Joint Commission PSCs and 0 CSCs in the United States. Of the US population, 65.8% had 60-minute ground access to PSCs. After adding up to 20 optimally located CSCs per state, 63.1% of the US population had 60-minute ground access and 86.0% had 60-minute ground/air access to a CSC. Across states, median CSC access was 55.7% by ground (interquartile range 35.7%–71.5%) and 85.3% by ground/air (interquartile range 59.8%–92.1%). Ground access was lower in Stroke Belt states compared with non–Stroke Belt states (32.0% vs 58.6%, p = 0.02) and lower in states without emergency medical service routing policies (52.7% vs 68.3%, p = 0.04). Conclusion: Optimal system simulation can be used to develop efficient care systems that maximize accessibility. Under optimal conditions, a large proportion of the US population will be unable to access a CSC within 60 minutes. PMID:25740858
An integro-PDE model from population genetics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lou, Yuan; Nagylaki, Thomas; Su, Linlin
We investigate an integro-partial differential equation that models the evolution of the frequencies for two alleles at a single locus under the joint action of migration, selection, and partial panmixia (i.e., global random mating). We extend previous analyses [T. Nagylaki, Clines with partial panmixia, Theor. Popul. Biol. 81 (2012) 45-68] on the maintenance of both alleles from conservative to arbitrary migration and prove the uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the nontrivial equilibrium. For conservative migration, we show that increasing the rate of panmixia makes it harder to maintain the allele with the smaller average fitness in the population. In terms of the selection function, we estimate the dependence on the panmictic rate of the minimal value of the selection intensity for the persistence of the allele with the smaller average fitness. We also show that, at least in an average sense, increasing panmixia flattens the cline.
Exact Solution of Population Redistributions in a Migration Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Xue-Wen; Zhang, Li-Jie; Yang, Guo-Hong; Xu, Xin-Jian
2013-10-01
We study a migration model, in which individuals migrate from one community to another. The choices of the source community i and the destination one j are proportional to some power of the population of i (kαi) and j (kβj), respectively. Both analytical calculation and numerical simulation show that the population distribution of communities in stationary states is determined by the parameters α and β. The distribution is widely homogeneous with a characteristic size if α > β. Whereas, for α < β, the distribution is highly heterogeneous with the emergence of condensing phenomenon. Between the two regimes, α = β, the distribution gradually shifts from the nonmonotonous (α < 0) to scale-free (α > 0).