Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

Expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Haeusler, Karl Georg; Gröschel, Klaus; Köhrmann, Martin; Anker, Stefan D; Brachmann, Johannes; Böhm, Michael; Diener, Hans-Christoph; Doehner, Wolfram; Endres, Matthias; Gerloff, Christian; Huttner, Hagen B; Kaps, Manfred; Kirchhof, Paulus; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Nolte, Christian H; Pfeilschifter, Waltraud; Pieske, Burkert; Poli, Sven; Schäbitz, Wolf Rüdiger; Thomalla, Götz; Veltkamp, Roland; Steiner, Thorsten; Laufs, Ulrich; Röther, Joachim; Wachter, Rolf; Schnabel, Renate

2018-04-27

This expert opinion paper on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke includes a statement of the "Heart and Brain" consortium of the German Cardiac Society and the German Stroke Society. This paper was endorsed by the Stroke Unit-Commission of the German Stroke Society and the German Atrial Fibrillation NETwork. In patients with ischemic stroke, detection of atrial fibrillation should usually lead to a change in secondary stroke prevention, since oral anticoagulation is superior to antiplatelet drugs. The detection of previously undiagnosed atrial fibrillation can be improved in patients with ischemic stroke to optimize stroke prevention. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on atrial fibrillation detection after ischemic stroke. We propose an interdisciplinary standard for a "structured analysis of ECG monitoring" on the stroke unit as well as a staged diagnostic scheme for the detection of atrial fibrillation. Since the optimal duration and mode of ECG monitoring has not yet been finally established, this paper is intended to give advice to physicians who are involved in stroke care. In line with the nature of an expert opinion paper, labeling of classes of recommendations is not provided, since many statements are based on the expert opinion, reported case series and clinical experience. Therefore, this paper is not intended as a guideline.

Using expert opinion to quantify unmeasured confounding bias parameters.

PubMed

Navadeh, Soodabeh; Mirzazadeh, Ali; McFarland, Willi; Woolf-King, Sarah; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-06-27

To develop and apply a method to quantify bias parameters in the case example of the association between alcohol use and HIV-serodiscordant condomless anal sex with potential confounding by sensation seeking among men who have sex with men (MSM), using expert opinion as an external data source. Through an online survey, we sought the input of 41 epidemiologist and behavioural scientists to quantify six parameters in the population of MSM: the proportion of high sensation seeking among heavy-drinking MSM, the proportion of sensation seeking among low-level drinking MSM, and the risk ratio (RR) of the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex, for HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM. Eleven experts responded. For HIV-positive heavy drinkers, the proportion of high sensation seeking was 53.6% (beta distribution [α=5.50, β=4.78]), and 41.1% (beta distribution [α=3.10, β=4.46]) in HIV-negative heavy drinkers. In HIV-positive low-level alcohol drinkers, high sensation seeking was 26.9% (beta distribution [α=1.81, β=4.92]), similar to high sensation seeking among HIV-negative low-level alcohol drinkers (25.3%) (beta distribution [α=2.00, β=5.89]). The lnRR for the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex was ln(2.4) (normal distribution [μ=0.889, σ=0.438]) in HIV-positive and ln(1.5) (normal distribution [μ=0.625, σ=0.391]) in HIV-negative MSM. Expert opinion can be a simple and efficient method for deriving bias parameters to quantify and adjust for hypothesized confounding. In this test case, expert opinion confirmed sensation seeking as a confounder for the effect of alcohol on condomless anal sex and provided the parameters necessary for probabilistic bias analysis.

Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests

PubMed Central

Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

Studies of Opinion Stability for Small Dynamic Networks with Opportunistic Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobkowicz, Pawel

There are numerous examples of societies with extremely stable mix of contrasting opinions. We argue that this stability is a result of an interplay between society network topology adjustment and opinion changing processes. To support this position we present a computer model of opinion formation based on some novel assumptions, designed to bring the model closer to social reality. In our model, the agents, in addition to changing their opinions due to influence of the rest of society and external propaganda, have the ability to modify their social network, forming links with agents sharing the same opinions and cutting the links with those they disagree with. To improve the model further we divide the agents into "fanatics" and "opportunists," depending on how easy it is to change their opinions. The simulations show significant differences compared to traditional models, where network links are static. In particular, for the dynamical model where inter-agent links are adjustable, the final network structure and opinion distribution is shown to resemble real world observations, such as social structures and persistence of minority groups even when most of the society is against them and the propaganda is strong.

Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

PubMed

Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

2018-02-01

Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

PubMed

Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

2013-10-15

The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and verification of an agent-based model of opinion leadership.

PubMed

Anderson, Christine A; Titler, Marita G

2014-09-27

The use of opinion leaders is a strategy used to speed the process of translating research into practice. Much is still unknown about opinion leader attributes and activities and the context in which they are most effective. Agent-based modeling is a methodological tool that enables demonstration of the interactive and dynamic effects of individuals and their behaviors on other individuals in the environment. The purpose of this study was to develop and test an agent-based model of opinion leadership. The details of the design and verification of the model are presented. The agent-based model was developed by using a software development platform to translate an underlying conceptual model of opinion leadership into a computer model. Individual agent attributes (for example, motives and credibility) and behaviors (seeking or providing an opinion) were specified as variables in the model in the context of a fictitious patient care unit. The verification process was designed to test whether or not the agent-based model was capable of reproducing the conditions of the preliminary conceptual model. The verification methods included iterative programmatic testing ('debugging') and exploratory analysis of simulated data obtained from execution of the model. The simulation tests included a parameter sweep, in which the model input variables were adjusted systematically followed by an individual time series experiment. Statistical analysis of model output for the 288 possible simulation scenarios in the parameter sweep revealed that the agent-based model was performing, consistent with the posited relationships in the underlying model. Nurse opinion leaders act on the strength of their beliefs and as a result, become an opinion resource for their uncertain colleagues, depending on their perceived credibility. Over time, some nurses consistently act as this type of resource and have the potential to emerge as opinion leaders in a context where uncertainty exists. The

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limitedmore » in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.« less

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

PubMed

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Keenan, Jeremy D; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul M; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M

2015-08-01

Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts' opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic. Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher's information. Each individual expert's forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

[Legal quality criteria of expert opinions in liability for medical malpractice].

PubMed

Neu, Johann

2017-09-01

In litigation regarding to liability for medical malpractice the court itself for lack of medical expert knowledge cannot judge a claimed error in treatment. That applies too for the question if there is causation between the error in treatment and claimed damage to patient's health. In this respect, the court is dependent on a medical expert and is bound to his assessment, unless there is no quality deficit in respect of medical and/or legal criteria. The more the medical expert knows the legal background of physician's liability for medical malpractice, the less is the risk of legal quality deficits in his expert opinion and thereby also of judicial errors by court. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

6 CFR 5.49 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony. 5.49 Section 5.49 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY DISCLOSURE OF RECORDS AND INFORMATION Disclosure of Information in Litigation § 5.49 Prohibition on providing...

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

2015-01-01

Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.

This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…

Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

PubMed

Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

2012-12-01

We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD.

Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

2015-01-01

Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

PubMed

Koehler, Derek J

2016-03-01

Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Causality Assessment in Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using a Structured Expert Opinion Process: Comparison to the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Rockey, Don C.; Seeff, Leonard B.; Rochon, James; Freston, James; Chalasani, Naga; Bonacini, Maurizio; Fontana, Robert J.; Hayashi, Paul H.

2011-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is largely a diagnosis of exclusion and is therefore challenging. The US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) prospective study used two methods to assess DILI causality: a structured expert opinion process and the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). Causality assessment focused on detailed clinical and laboratory data from patients with suspected DILI. The adjudication process used standardized numerical and descriptive definitions and scored cases as definite, highly likely, probable, possible, or unlikely. Results of the structured expert opinion procedure were compared with those derived by the RUCAM approach. Among 250 patients with suspected DILI, the expert opinion adjudication process scored 78 patients (31%) as definite, 102 (41%) as highly likely, 37 (15%) as probable, 25 (10%) as possible, and 8 (3%) as unlikely. Among 187 enrollees who had received a single implicated drug, initial complete agreement was reached for 50 (27%) with the expert opinion process and for 34 (19%) with a five-category RUCAM scale (P = 0.08), and the two methods demonstrated a modest correlation with each other (Spearman's r = 0.42, P = 0.0001). Importantly, the RUCAM approach substantially shifted the causality likelihood toward lower probabilities in comparison with the DILIN expert opinion process. Conclusion The structured DILIN expert opinion process produced higher agreement rates and likelihood scores than RUCAM in assessing causality, but there was still considerable interobserver variability in both. Accordingly, a more objective, reliable, and reproducible means of assessing DILI causality is still needed. PMID:20512999

Expert opinions on success factors for upper-limb prostheses.

PubMed

Schultz, Aimee E; Baade, Susan P; Kuiken, Todd A

2007-01-01

The goal of this study was to gather the opinions of prosthetics experts on the most important factors for the successful use of upper-limb (UL) prostheses, compare them with those of prosthesis users, and ultimately direct research efforts in this field. UL prosthetics experts were asked to compare the importance of the comfort, function, and cosmesis of a prosthetic device for a transhumeral amputee. Categories were subdivided into weight, socket-interface comfort, power, agility, color, and shape. The majority of those who responded viewed comfort as the most important factor for a unilateral amputee and considered socket-interface comfort to be more important than weight. Function was considered to be the most important factor for a bilateral amputee, with agility considered more important than power. Cosmesis was consistently reported as being less important than comfort and function, and shape was considered more important than color.

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

PubMed

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

Drug exposure in register-based research—An expert-opinion based evaluation of methods

PubMed Central

Taipale, Heidi; Koponen, Marjaana; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Ahonen, Riitta; Tiihonen, Jari

2017-01-01

Background In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, construction of drug exposure periods from drug purchases is a major methodological challenge. Various methods have been applied but their validity is rarely evaluated. Our objective was to conduct an expert-opinion based evaluation of the correctness of drug use periods produced by different methods. Methods Drug use periods were calculated with three fixed methods: time windows, assumption of one Defined Daily Dose (DDD) per day and one tablet per day, and with PRE2DUP that is based on modelling of individual drug purchasing behavior. Expert-opinion based evaluation was conducted with 200 randomly selected purchase histories of warfarin, bisoprolol, simvastatin, risperidone and mirtazapine in the MEDALZ-2005 cohort (28,093 persons with Alzheimer’s disease). Two experts reviewed purchase histories and judged which methods had joined correct purchases and gave correct duration for each of 1000 drug exposure periods. Results The evaluated correctness of drug use periods was 70–94% for PRE2DUP, and depending on grace periods and time window lengths 0–73% for tablet methods, 0–41% for DDD methods and 0–11% for time window methods. The highest rate of evaluated correct solutions for each method class were observed for 1 tablet per day with 180 days grace period (TAB_1_180, 43–73%), and 1 DDD per day with 180 days grace period (1–41%). Time window methods produced at maximum only 11% correct solutions. The best performing fixed method TAB_1_180 reached highest correctness for simvastatin 73% (95% CI 65–81%) whereas 89% (95% CI 84–94%) of PRE2DUP periods were judged as correct. Conclusions This study shows inaccuracy of fixed methods and the urgent need for new data-driven methods. In the expert-opinion based evaluation, the lowest error rates were observed with data-driven method PRE2DUP. PMID:28886089

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

PubMed

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Expert opinion on "best practices" in the delivery of health care services to immigrants in Denmark.

PubMed

Jensen, Natasja Koitzsch; Nielsen, Signe Smith; Krasnik, Allan

2010-08-01

Delivery of health care to immigrants is an emerging field of interest. Immigrants are frequently characterised by health outcomes that are inferior to those of other groups with regard to morbidity and mortality. In addition, health professionals report difficulties associated with the encounter with immigrant patients. A Delphi process with eight Danish experts from the field of immigrant health was performed as part of an EU project. The objective of the Delphi process was to investigate expert opinion on "best practice in the delivery of healthcare to immigrants". Initially, 60 factors were suggested by the experts. Next, these factors were summarised into 32 factors that the experts were invited to rate and, if possible, agree on. The top 11 factors identified in the Delphi process were access to interpreters, quality of interpretation, ensuring medication compliance, having sufficient consultation time, coherence of offers, interdisciplinary collaboration, allocation of resources, the role of the practitioner, acknowledgement of the individual patient, education of health professionals and students and access to telephone interpretation to supplement other services. The Delphi process can be a valuable tool in the investigation of expert opinion and may thereby help to guide future policy directives. In the light of the importance experts placed on access to interpreters and on the quality of the interpretation services offered, it seems as an untenable strategy to introduce as from June 2011 self-payment for interpretation services provided to immigrants who have stayed in the country for more than seven years.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

PubMed

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

2015-08-18

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

PubMed Central

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

Management of cytotoxic extravasation - ASORS expert opinion for diagnosis, prevention and treatment.

PubMed

de Wit, Maike; Ortner, Petra; Lipp, Hans-Peter; Sehouli, Jalid; Untch, Michael; Ruhnke, Markus; Mayer-Steinacker, Regine; Bokemeyer, Carsten; Jordan, Karin

2013-01-01

Cytotoxic extravasation is a rare but potentially serious and painful complication of intravenous drug administration in oncology. Literature is anecdotal, and systematic clinical trials are scarce. The German working group for Supportive Care in Cancer (ASORS) has prepared an expert opinion for the diagnosis, prophylaxis and management of cytotoxic extravasation based on an interdisciplinary expert panel. A Pubmed search was conducted for diagnosis, risk factors, symptoms, prophylaxis, and treatment of extravasation by the respective responsible expert. A writing committee compiled the manuscript and proposed the level of recommendation. In a consensus meeting, 13 experts reviewed and discussed the current practice in diagnosis and management of cytotoxic extravasation. In a telephone voting among the experts, the level of recommendation by ASORS was determined. Every effort should be made to reduce the risk of extravasation. Staff training, patient education, usage of right materials and infusion techniques have been identified to be mandatory to minimalize the risk of extravasation. Extravasation must be diagnosed as soon as possible, and specific therapy including antidotes dependent on the extravasated drug should be initiated immediately. An extravasation emergency set should be available wherever intravenous cytotoxics are applied. Documentation and post-treatment follow-up are recommended. We have developed a literature- and expert-based consensus recommendation to avoid cytotoxic extravasation. It also provides practical management instructions which should help to avoid surgery and serious late effects. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Experts' opinions on terminology for complementary and integrative medicine - a qualitative study with leading experts.

PubMed

Holmberg, Christine; Brinkhaus, Benno; Witt, Claudia

2012-11-14

Integrative medicine (IM) is currently the most commonly used term to describe the integration of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) into conventional medicine. In the definitions of IM the most important feature is the focus on evidence as crucial factor for therapeutic decision-making. However, there are discussions on the term "integrative medicine" with the most notable critique from within CAM that it describes the integration of complementary methods into conventional institutions and into a "conventional framework of thinking". The aim of this qualitative study was to understand the thoughts of leading experts on IM and on the scientific debate in the field as well as their personal opinions about terminology in general. We have conducted semi-standardized interviews with ten leading experts in the field of CAM and integrative medicine in the USA, England, and Germany, who have had leading positions at medical schools or the NIH in 2010 and 2011. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed using content analysis with the qualitative analysis software maxqda. Overall the current terminology was seen as a problem, although most experts agreed that the term "integrative medicine" (IM) described well what they do or they think is useful for medical care. The terminology debate was discussed from four perspectives: 1) from the perspective of medical practice, 2) from the perspective of research, 3) from the perspective of public relations, and 4) from the perspective of health care delivery. These perspectives may be used to evaluate the appropriateness of different terms in use in the field. When interviewees discussed the terminology question, they also discussed the type of health care system they envisioned. Such reflections led the interviewees to caution about too narrow a focus on the terminology question. The question of naming was one about influencing and changing medicine. The discussion of the experts demonstrated that the discussion

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

PubMed

Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

2016-01-01

Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

The Peace Mediator effect: Heterogeneous agents can foster consensus in continuous opinion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilone, Daniele; Carletti, Timoteo; Bagnoli, Franco; Guazzini, Andrea

2016-11-01

Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. In this context, we propose a particular model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named ;cognitive dissonance;. Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each bearing only two dynamical variables (respectively ;opinion; and ;affinity;) self-consistently adjusted during time evolution. We also define two special classes of interacting entities, both acting for a peace mediation process but via different course of action: ;diplomats; and ;auctoritates;. The behavior of the system with and without peace mediators (PMs) is investigated and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological and social implications.

Expert opinion as 'validation' of risk assessment applied to calf welfare.

PubMed

Bracke, Marc B M; Edwards, Sandra A; Engel, Bas; Buist, Willem G; Algers, Bo

2008-07-14

Recently, a Risk Assessment methodology was applied to animal welfare issues in a report of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) on intensively housed calves. Because this is a new and potentially influential approach to derive conclusions on animal welfare issues, a so-called semantic-modelling type 'validation' study was conducted by asking expert scientists, who had been involved or quoted in the report, to give welfare scores for housing systems and for welfare hazards. Kendall's coefficient of concordance among experts (n = 24) was highly significant (P < 0.001), but low (0.29 and 0.18 for housing systems and hazards respectively). Overall correlations with EFSA scores were significant only for experts with a veterinary or mixed (veterinary and applied ethological) background. Significant differences in welfare scores were found between housing systems, between hazards, and between experts with different backgrounds. For example, veterinarians gave higher overall welfare scores for housing systems than ethologists did, probably reflecting a difference in their perception of animal welfare. Systems with the lowest scores were veal calves kept individually in so-called "baby boxes" (veal crates) or in small groups, and feedlots. A suckler herd on pasture was rated as the best for calf welfare. The main hazards were related to underfeeding, inadequate colostrum intake, poor stockperson education, insufficient space, inadequate roughage, iron deficiency, inadequate ventilation, poor floor conditions and no bedding. Points for improvement of the Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare include linking information, reporting uncertainty and transparency about underlying values. The study provides novel information on expert opinion in relation to calf welfare and shows that Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare can benefit from a semantic modelling approach.

The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

PubMed

Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

2018-02-01

This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

PubMed

Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

2017-10-01

This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

Respiratory support in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Chiumello, Davide; Brochard, Laurent; Marini, John J; Slutsky, Arthur S; Mancebo, Jordi; Ranieri, V Marco; Thompson, B Taylor; Papazian, Laurent; Schultz, Marcus J; Amato, Marcelo; Gattinoni, Luciano; Mercat, Alain; Pesenti, Antonio; Talmor, Daniel; Vincent, Jean-Louis

2017-09-12

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common condition in intensive care unit patients and remains a major concern, with mortality rates of around 30-45% and considerable long-term morbidity. Respiratory support in these patients must be optimized to ensure adequate gas exchange while minimizing the risks of ventilator-induced lung injury. The aim of this expert opinion document is to review the available clinical evidence related to ventilator support and adjuvant therapies in order to provide evidence-based and experience-based clinical recommendations for the management of patients with ARDS.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

[Study on expert system of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible smoke agent].

PubMed

Song, Dong-ming; Guan, Hua; Hou, Wei; Pan, Gong-pei

2009-05-01

The present paper studied the application of expert system in prediction of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible anti-infrared smoke agent. The construction of the expert system was founded, based on the theory of minimum free energy and infrared spectral addition. After the direction of smoke agent was input, the expert system could figure out the final combustion products. Then infrared spectrogram of smoke could also be simulated by adding the spectra of all of the combustion products. Meanwhile, the screening index of smoke was provided in the wave bands of 3-5 im and 8-14 microm. FTIR spectroscope was used to investigate the performance of one kind of HC smoke. The combustion products calculated by the expert system were coincident with the actual data, and the simulant infrared spectrum was also similar to the real one of the smoke. The screening index given by the system was consistent with the known facts. It was showed that a new approach was offered for the fast discrimination of varieties of directions of smoke agent.

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

PubMed Central

Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stoeckl, Heidi

2016-01-01

Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

[A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years].

PubMed

Uhlenbrock, Judith; Hinrichs, Jens; Heuft, Gereon

2017-09-01

A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years Objectives: Both the public and the legislative have developed an increasingly critical awareness for the fact that expert witnesses need to be independent. In contrast, to date there have been few studies concerning the quantity and the results of psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic expert opinions for public and private clients. In a retrospective study design, 285 expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital stemming from consecutive, unselected random sampling over a 12-year time period (1990-2011) were analyzed using a predefined list of criteria. Besides client data, the study also noted the type and the objectives of the expertise, the sociodemographic data of the subjects, the biographic data of the subjects, the size of records, the particular psychopathological findings including conflict and structural diagnostics via the Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics (OPD-2, Research Group 2006), syndromic diagnostics according to ICD-10 (WHO) including the related Impairment Scale Score (ISS, Schepank 1995), and the Global Assessment of Functioning-Scale (GAF, Heuft 2016). 54% of the subjects were men. All subjects were 46 years old at the time of examination; on average symptomatology had existed for 7 years, which made assessment of causality difficult. Most assignments referred to the effects of diseases or accidents in private contexts, followed by pension reports. Among the expert opinions related to possible implications of acts of violence, 95% were women. In 43.2% (n = 123) of the cases, the assessment had occurred in the context of legal action. In 65 cases at least one party had requested a supplemental written report during further procedure. In 17.8% (n = 22) of the cases sought by the courts, the expert witness was requested by at least one party to present the

Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

PubMed

Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

2017-06-01

To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying deficiencies in national and foreign medical team responses through expert opinion surveys: implications for education and training.

PubMed

Djalali, Ahmadreza; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Corte, Francesco Della; Foletti, Marco; Gallardo, Alba Ripoll; Ragazzoni, Luca; Kaptan, Kubilay; Lupescu, Olivera; Arculeo, Chris; von Arnim, Gotz; Friedl, Tom; Ashkenazi, Michael; Heselmann, Deike; Hreckovski, Boris; Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Khorrram-Manesh, Amir; Komadina, Radko; Lechner, Kostanze; Patru, Cristina; Burkle, Frederick M; Fisher, Philipp

2014-08-01

Unacceptable practices in the delivery of international medical assistance are reported after every major international disaster; this raises concerns about the clinical competence and practice of some foreign medical teams (FMTs). The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the opinions of disaster management experts about potential deficiencies in the art and science of national and FMTs during disasters and the impact these opinions might have on competency-based education and training. This qualitative study was performed in 2013. A questionnaire-based evaluation of experts' opinions and experiences in responding to disasters was conducted. The selection of the experts was done using the purposeful sampling method, and the sample size was considered by data saturation. Content analysis was used to explore the implications of the data. This study shows that there is a lack of competency-based training for disaster responders. Developing and performing standardized training courses is influenced by shortcomings in budget, expertise, and standards. There is a lack of both coordination and integration among teams and their activities during disasters. The participants of this study emphasized problems concerning access to relevant resources during disasters. The major findings of this study suggest that teams often are not competent during the response phase because of education and training deficiencies. Foreign medical teams and medically related nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) do not always provide expected capabilities and services. Failures in leadership and in coordination among teams are also a problem. All deficiencies need to be applied to competency-based curricula.

Paediatric expert witness.

PubMed

Johnson, Sandra L J

2013-08-01

Paediatricians may be asked to provide expert opinion in paediatric cases that come under legal consideration. This article provides suggestions to assist paediatricians in this role and emphasises their duty to the court when giving expert opinion. © 2013 The Author. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

A framework to start the debate on neonatal screening policies in the EU: an Expert Opinion Document.

PubMed

Cornel, Martina C; Rigter, Tessel; Weinreich, Stephanie S; Burgard, Peter; Hoffmann, Georg F; Lindner, Martin; Gerard Loeber, J; Rupp, Kathrin; Taruscio, Domenica; Vittozzi, Luciano

2014-01-01

The European Union (EU) Council Recommendation on rare diseases urged the member states to implement national and EU collaborative actions to improve the health care of rare disease patients. Following this recommendation, the European Commission launched a tender on newborn screening (NBS) to report on current practices of laboratory testing, form a network of experts and provide guidance on how to further implement NBS screening in a responsible way, the latter of which was provided in an Expert Opinion document. After consultation of experts from EU member states, (potential) candidate member states and European Free Trade Association countries, in a consensus meeting in June 2011, 70 expert opinions were finalized. They included the need to develop case definitions for all disorders screened for to facilitate assessment and international outcome studies. Decision whether a screening program should be performed can be based on screening criteria updated from the traditional Wilson and Jungner (1968) criteria, relating to disease, treatment, test and cost. The interest of the child should be central in the assessment of pros and cons. A European NBS body should assess evidence on (new) screening candidate disorders. For rare conditions, best level evidence should be used. The health system should ensure treatment to cases diagnosed by screening, controlled and revised by follow-up outcome studies. Screening methodology should aim to avoid unintended findings, such as mild forms and carrier status information, as much as possible. Activities to improve NBS in Europe, such as training and scientific evaluation, could benefit from collaboration at EU level and beyond.

Weighing In: The Taste-Engineering Frame in Obesity Expert Discourse

PubMed Central

Zimmerman, Frederick J.; Gilliam, Franklin D.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We sought expert opinion on the problems with 2 dominant obesity-prevention discourse frames—personal responsibility and the environment—and examined alternative frames for understanding and addressing obesity. Methods. We conducted 60-minute, semistructured interviews with 15 US-based obesity experts. We manually coded and entered interview transcripts into software, generating themes and subthematic areas that captured the debate’s essence. Results. Although the environmental frame is the dominant model used in communications with the public and policymakers, several experts found that communicating key messages within this frame was difficult because of the enormity of the obesity problem. A subframe of the environmental frame—the taste-engineering frame—identifies food industry strategies to influence the overconsumption of certain foods and beverages. This emerging frame deconstructs the environmental frame so that causal attributes and responsible agents are more easily identifiable and proposed policies and public health interventions more salient. Conclusions. Expert interviews are an invaluable resource for understanding how experts use frames in discussing their work and in conversations with the public and policymakers. Future empirical studies testing the effectiveness of the taste-engineering frame on public opinion and support for structural-level health policies are needed. PMID:25602888

Weighing in: the taste-engineering frame in obesity expert discourse.

PubMed

Ortiz, Selena E; Zimmerman, Frederick J; Gilliam, Franklin D

2015-03-01

We sought expert opinion on the problems with 2 dominant obesity-prevention discourse frames-personal responsibility and the environment-and examined alternative frames for understanding and addressing obesity. We conducted 60-minute, semistructured interviews with 15 US-based obesity experts. We manually coded and entered interview transcripts into software, generating themes and subthematic areas that captured the debate's essence. Although the environmental frame is the dominant model used in communications with the public and policymakers, several experts found that communicating key messages within this frame was difficult because of the enormity of the obesity problem. A subframe of the environmental frame--the taste-engineering frame--identifies food industry strategies to influence the overconsumption of certain foods and beverages. This emerging frame deconstructs the environmental frame so that causal attributes and responsible agents are more easily identifiable and proposed policies and public health interventions more salient. Expert interviews are an invaluable resource for understanding how experts use frames in discussing their work and in conversations with the public and policymakers. Future empirical studies testing the effectiveness of the taste-engineering frame on public opinion and support for structural-level health policies are needed.

The Effects of Peer-Like and Expert-Like Pedagogical Agents on Learners' Agent Perceptions, Task-Related Attitudes, and Learning Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liew, Tze Wei; Tan, Su-Mae; Jayothisa, Chandrika

2013-01-01

The present study examined the impact of peer-like and expert-like agent stereotypes, as operationalized by agent's image and voice, on learners' agent perceptions, task-related attitudes, and learning achievement. 56 university freshmen (23 males and 33 females) interacted with either the peer-like agent (female college student) or the…

Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

PubMed

Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

2016-05-01

Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

[Deontology of the medical expert].

PubMed

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

The CHESS method of forensic opinion formulation: striving to checkmate bias.

PubMed

Wills, Cheryl D

2008-01-01

Expert witnesses use various methods to render dispassionate opinions. Some forensic psychiatrists acknowledge bias up front; other experts use principles endorsed by the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law or other professional organizations. This article introduces CHESS, a systematic method for reducing bias in expert opinions. The CHESS method involves identifying a Claim or preliminary opinion; developing a Hierarchy of supporting evidence; examining the evidence for weaknesses or areas of Exposure; Studying and revising the claim and supporting evidence; and Synthesizing a revised opinion. Case examples illustrate how the CHESS method may help experts reduce bias while strengthening opinions. The method also helps experts prepare for court by reminding them to anticipate questions that may be asked during cross-examination. The CHESS method provides a framework for formulating, revising, and identifying limitations of opinions, which allows experts to incorporate neutrality into forensic opinions.

[Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake. part 2. Expert evidence in cases with suspicion of medical mistake - expectations, possibilities, threats…].

PubMed

Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

Problems of medical mistake and therapeutic failure are inextricably linked with realization of medical services. In recent years, mostly by the media and increasing demanding attitude, a rapid increase of initiated cases opened by judicial body in conjunction with medical mistake made by medical staff is observed. Making medico-legal opinions is not easy task and often face many difficulties. These consist of lacks in medical documentation, time rigor, formal tightening and need to create team that consist of both forensic medicine specialist and clinicians, who together shall write complex medico-legal opinion. This article touches the essence of the opinion-making problem in the aspect of medical mistake. It shows specifics of the role of forensic medicine specialist, his challenges and difficulties in creating opinions. The article confronts real possibilities of court experts with expectations of judicial body, outlining new challenges and dangers which court experts have to face.

Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2016-01-01

We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

Exploring expert opinion on the practicality and effectiveness of biosecurity measures on dairy farms in the United Kingdom using choice modeling.

PubMed

Shortall, Orla; Green, Martin; Brennan, Marnie; Wapenaar, Wendela; Kaler, Jasmeet

2017-03-01

Biosecurity, defined as a series of measures aiming to stop disease-causing agents entering or leaving an area where farm animals are present, is very important for the continuing economic viability of the United Kingdom dairy sector, and for animal welfare. This study gathered expert opinion from farmers, veterinarians, consultants, academics, and government and industry representatives on the practicality and effectiveness of different biosecurity measures on dairy farms. The study used best-worst scaling, a technique that allows for greater discrimination between choices and avoids the variability in interpretation associated with other methods, such as Likert scales and ranking methods. Keeping a closed herd was rated as the most effective measure overall, and maintaining regular contact with the veterinarian was the most practical measure. Measures relating to knowledge, planning, and veterinary involvement; buying-in practices; and quarantine and treatment scored highly for effectiveness overall. Measures relating to visitors, equipment, pest control, and hygiene scored much lower for effectiveness. Overall, measures relating to direct animal-to-animal contact scored much higher for effectiveness than measures relating to indirect disease transmission. Some of the most effective measures were also rated as the least practical, such as keeping a closed herd and avoiding nose-to-nose contact between contiguous animals, suggesting that real barriers exist for farmers when implementing biosecurity measures on dairy farms. We observed heterogeneity in expert opinion on biosecurity measures; for example, veterinarians rated the effectiveness of consulting the veterinarian on biosecurity significantly more highly than dairy farmers, suggesting a greater need for veterinarians to promote their services on-farm. Still, both groups rated it as a practical measure, suggesting that the farmer-veterinarian relationship holds some advantages for the promotion of

39 CFR 230.23 - May an Office of Inspector General employee testify as an expert or opinion witness?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false May an Office of Inspector General employee testify as an expert or opinion witness? 230.23 Section 230.23 Postal Service UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL Rules Governing Compliance With Subpoenas, Summonses, and Court Orders by Postal...

Biology Teacher and Expert Opinions about Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Materials: A Software Entitled Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasenekoglu, Ismet; Timucin, Melih

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is to collect and evaluate opinions of CAI experts and biology teachers about a high school level Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Material presenting computer-made modelling and simulations. It is a case study. A material covering "Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis" topic was developed as the…

Treatment of severe psoriasis in children: recommendations of an Italian expert group.

PubMed

Fortina, Anna Belloni; Bardazzi, Federico; Berti, Samantha; Carnevale, Claudia; Di Lernia, Vito; El Hachem, Maya; Neri, Iria; Gelmetti, Carlo Mario; Lora, Viviana; Mazzatenta, Carlo; Milioto, Mirella; Moretta, Gaia; Patrizi, Annalisa; Peris, Ketty; Villani, Alberto

2017-10-01

This article provides comprehensive recommendations for the systemic treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis based on evidence obtained from a systematic review of the literature and the consensus opinion of expert dermatologists and pediatricians. For each systemic treatment, the grade of recommendation (A, B, C) based on the treatment's approval by the European Medicines Agency for childhood psoriasis and the experts' opinions is discussed. The grade of recommendation for narrow-band-ultraviolet B phototherapy, cyclosporine, and retinoids is C, while that for methotrexate is C/B. The use of adalimumab, etanercept, and ustekinumab has a grade A recommendation. No conventional systemic treatments are approved for pediatric psoriasis. Adalimumab is approved by the European Medicines Agency as a first-line treatment for severe chronic plaque psoriasis in children (≥ 4 years old) and adolescents. Etanercept and ustekinumab are approved as second-line therapy in children ≥ 6 and ≥ 12 years, respectively. A treatment algorithm as well as practical tools (i.e., tabular summaries of differential diagnoses, treatment mechanism of actions, dosing regimens, control parameters) are provided to assist in therapeutic reasoning and decision-making for individual patients. These treatment recommendations are endorsed by major Italian Pediatric and Dermatology Societies. What is Known: • Guidelines for the treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis are lacking and most traditional systemic treatments are not approved for use in young patients. Although there has been decades of experience with some of the traditional agents such as phototherapy, acitretin, and cyclosporine in children, there are no RCTs on their pediatric use while RCTs investigating new biologic agents have been performed. What is New: • In this manuscript, an Italian multidisciplinary team of experts focused on treatment recommendations for severe forms of psoriasis in children based on an up

[Health insurance companies and medical genetics, what do they want to know? Expert opinions concerning medical genetic services].

PubMed

Nippert, Reinhart Peter; Schmidtke, J

2012-03-01

Based on the compilation of medical opinions delivered by a medical genetic expert between 2002 and 2010, solicited by private health insurance companies in Germany, an analysis of the main issues raised was made to identify the information needs of company employees with respect to human and medical genetics. The findings are discussed and recommendations for improvement and further training are suggested.

Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

PubMed

D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

2013-10-01

Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

Active Surveillance for Low and Intermediate Risk Prostate Cancer: Opinions of North American Genitourinary Oncology Expert Radiation Oncologists.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

2018-04-01

The ProtecT trial has provided level 1 evidence supporting active surveillance for prostate cancer patients with low-risk and intermediate-risk disease. The effect of these findings on the opinions of North American genitourinary (GU) experts regarding the role of active surveillance for these patients has not been previously examined. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to appropriateness of active surveillance in patients with low-risk and intermediate-risk (Gleason 3+4) disease. Opinions regarding active surveillance were correlated with practice patterns using Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey. Forty percent had been in practice for more than 20 years; 90% practice at an academic center. Forty-five percent see ≥ 20 patients per month in consultation. More than 95% (40 of 42) recommended active surveillance for Gleason 6 disease, whereas only 17% recommended active surveillance for Gleason 3+4 disease. There were no demographic differences between supporters or opponents regarding active surveillance with regard to monthly patient volume, practice type, likelihood of self-identifying as an expert brachytherapist, belief in advanced imaging techniques, or preferred default external beam radiation therapy dose/fractionation for either low-risk or intermediate-risk disease. However, there was a trend toward greater support of active surveillance for Gleason 3+4 disease among experts having practiced < 10 years versus ≥ 10 years (P = .085). Active surveillance is almost universally supported by North American GU expert radiation oncologists for low-risk prostate cancer. However, there is very weak support for this strategy in Gleason 3+4 disease despite the ProtecT trial providing level 1 evidentiary support in both risk groups. There were no significant differences between experts

[Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

PubMed

Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

2001-02-01

Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

Anisotropic opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neirotti, Juan

2016-07-01

We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Katy

2004-01-01

Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

DOEpatents

Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

2004-11-30

A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

The Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W.; Sanchez, Javier

2012-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations. PMID:22848536

Opinion strength influences the spatial dynamics of opinion formation

PubMed Central

Baumgaertner, Bert O.; Tyson, Rebecca T.; Krone, Stephen M.

2016-01-01

Opinions are rarely binary; they can be held with different degrees of conviction, and this expanded attitude spectrum can affect the influence one opinion has on others. Our goal is to understand how different aspects of influence lead to recognizable spatio-temporal patterns of opinions and their strengths. To do this, we introduce a stochastic spatial agent-based model of opinion dynamics that includes a spectrum of opinion strengths and various possible rules for how the opinion strength of one individual affects the influence that this individual has on others. Through simulations, we find that even a small amount of amplification of opinion strength through interaction with like-minded neighbors can tip the scales in favor of polarization and deadlock. PMID:28529381

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment

PubMed Central

Wang, Lihong

2017-01-01

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert’s individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert’s overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment. PMID:28869570

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

PubMed

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or opinion...

Use of glucocorticoids in rheumatoid arthritis - pratical modalities of glucocorticoid therapy: recommendations for clinical practice based on data from the literature and expert opinion.

PubMed

Dernis, Emmanuelle; Ruyssen-Witrand, Adeline; Mouterde, Gaël; Maillefert, Jean-Francis; Tebib, Jacques; Cantagrel, Alain; Claudepierre, Pascal; Fautrel, Bruno; Gaudin, Philippe; Pham, Thao; Schaeverbeke, Thierry; Wendling, Daniel; Saraux, Alain; Loët, Xavier Le

2010-10-01

To develop recommendations about the use of glucocorticoids in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis (RA) managed in everyday practice, using the evidence-based approach and expert opinion. A three-step procedure was used: a scientific committee used a Delphi procedure to select five questions, which formed the basis for developing the recommendations; a systematic literature review was conducted by searching the Medline and Embase databases and the abstracts of meetings held by the Société Française de Rhumatologie (SFR), American College of Rheumatology (ACR), and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR); and recommendations were developed and validated by a panel of experts based on the data from the literature review and on their experience. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and extent of agreement among experts were determined. The five questions pertained to the use of glucocorticoids in RA patients: role for intravenous glucocorticoid bolus therapy, role for intraarticular injections, and practical modalities of glucocorticoid administration and discontinuation. From the literature search, 93 articles were selected based on their titles and abstracts. Of these, 50 were selected for the literature review. Eight recommendations about the use of glucocorticoid therapy in everyday practice in patients with established RA were validated by a vote among all participating experts: bolus glucocorticoid therapy should be reserved for highly selected situations; triamcinolone hexacetonide is the preferred glucocorticoid for intraarticular therapy, and the joint should be rested for about 24h after the injection; for oral glucocorticoid therapy, agents with a short half-life taken once daily should be preferred; and when discontinuing glucocorticoid therapy, the patient and usual physician should be informed of the risk of adrenal insufficiency. Copyright © 2010 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights

Future Challenges in Higher Education--Bologna Experts' Community Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yemini, Miri

2012-01-01

This work presents results from systematic analysis of the challenges for the future of higher education in European and neighboring countries as it was extracted from the Bologna experts and Higher Education Reform experts' opinions. Opinions of more than 100 experts from 35 countries were documented and analyzed. Significant differences in the…

Phase Transition in Opinion Diffusion in Social Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

the opinions of social agents diffuse in a network under a so-called hard-interaction model, in which the agents inter- act more strongly with...gent behavior. Index Terms— opinion diffusion , opinion dynamics, social net- works, phase transition, herding. 1. INTRODUCTION The study of the

Expert opinion in the management of aqueous Deficient Dry Eye Disease (DED).

PubMed

Sy, Aileen; O'Brien, Kieran S; Liu, Margaret P; Cuddapah, Puja A; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer

2015-10-13

Dry eye disease (DED) affects millions of people worldwide. There are a variety of new treatments beyond traditional therapies such as preservative free artificial tears. Here, we conduct a survey to identify the most common treatments used among specialists and assess their interest in newer therapies. An international survey was distributed to dry eye researchers and expert practitioners via an internet survey. The survey data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics. One hundred and fifteen respondents completed the survey; of these, 66 % were cornea specialists. The most commonly prescribed topical treatments included cyclosporine A (CSA) 0.05 % (71/104, 68 %), fluorometholone (FML) 0.1 % (59/99, 60 %), loteprednol etabonate 0.5 % (50/99, 51 %), and autologous serum eye drops (ASD; 48/97, 49 %). The most commonly prescribed non-topical medications included essential fatty acid supplements (72/104, 69 %), low-dose doxycycline (oral; 61/100, 61 %), and flaxseed supplements (32/96, 33 %) as well as punctal plugs (76/102, 75 %). Respondents reported treatment with topical corticosteroids for 2 to 8 weeks (46/86, 53 %), followed by less than 2 weeks (24/86, 28 %) and with topical CSA between 2 to 8 weeks (45/85, 53 %) followed by 2 to 6 months (24/85, 28 %). The top three signs and symptoms reported to indicate treatment response were, in order, fluorescein staining of the cornea, reduction in foreign body sensation, and reduction in burning sensation. This survey offers insight into current expert opinion in the treatment of DED. The results of this survey are hypothesis generating and will aid in the design of future clinical studies.

Dramatically Polarized Opinion on the Role of Brachytherapy Boost in Management of High-risk Prostate Cancer: A Survey of North American Genitourinary Expert Radiation Oncologists.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

2018-06-01

Three randomized clinical trials have established brachytherapy (BT) boost in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) as superior to definitive EBRT and ADT alone in terms of biochemical control (but not overall survival) at the expense of increased toxicity in men with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa). The current view regarding these 2 treatment algorithms among North American genitourinary (GU) experts is not known. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to opinions regarding BT as monotherapy for low-risk PCa and BT boost for HR PCa. Responders were asked to self-identify as BT experts versus non-experts. Treatment recommendations were correlated with practice patterns using the Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey, of whom 23 (55%) recommend EBRT and ADT alone and 19 (45%) recommend addition of BT boost. Twenty-five participants (60%) identified themselves as BT experts. Nearly 90% of those recommending BT boost were BT experts versus approximately 10% of non-BT experts (P < .001). Responders who recommended BT monotherapy as first-choice treatment for low-risk PCa were more likely to recommend BT boost for HR PCa (P < .0001). There is a dramatic polarization in opinions regarding incorporation of BT boost into EBRT + ADT therapy for patients with HR PCa among North American GU radiation oncology experts, who serve on decision-making committees and influence the national treatment guidelines and future clinical trials. Those who identify themselves as BT experts are significantly more likely to recommend BT boost. These findings are likely to influence the national guidelines and implementation of BT boost in current and future North American PCa clinical studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opinion formation of free speech on the directed social network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Jiongming; Ma, Hongxu; Liu, Baohong; Li, Qi

2014-12-01

A dynamical model with continuous opinion is proposed to study how the speech order and the topology of directed social network affect the opinion formation of free speech. In the model, agents express their opinions one by one with random order (RO) or probability order (PO), other agents paying attentions to the speaking agent, receive provider's opinion, update their opinions and then express their new opinions in their turns. It is proved that with the same agent j repeats its opinion more, other agents who pay their attentions to j and include j's opinion in their confidence level at initial time, will continue approaching j's opinion. Simulation results reveal that on directed scale-free network: (1) the model for PO forms fewer opinion clusters, larger maximum cluster (MC), smaller standard deviation (SD), and needs less waiting time to reach a middle level of consensus than RO; (2) as the parameter of scale-free degree distribution decreases or the confidence level increases, the results often get better for both speech orders; (3) the differences between PO and RO get smaller as the size of network decreases.

Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbay, Michael

Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

PubMed

Stevenson-Holt, Claire D; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C; Nevin, Owen T; Ramsey, Andrew D

2014-01-01

Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Jan

Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Seah, Chin

2009-01-01

During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

2014-12-01

Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate.

Expert opinion and key recommendations for the physical therapy and rehabilitation of patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

PubMed

Ozgocmen, Salih; Akgul, Ozgur; Altay, Zuhal; Altindag, Ozlem; Baysal, Ozlem; Calis, Mustafa; Capkin, Erhan; Cevik, Remzi; Durmus, Bekir; Gur, Ali; Kamanli, Ayhan; Karkucak, Murat; Madenci, Ercan; Melikoglu, Meltem A; Nas, Kemal; Senel, Kazim; Ugur, Mahir

2012-06-01

  Physiotherapy is an integral part of the management of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and there is a need for recommendations which focus on the rehabilitation of patients with AS. We aimed to develop recommendations for the physical therapy and rehabilitation of patients with AS based on the evidence and expertise.   The Anatolian Group for the Assessment in Rheumatic Diseases (ANGARD) is a scientific group of Turkish academicians (physiatrists and rheumatologists) who are experts in the rehabilitation of patients with AS. A systematic literature search summarizing the current available physiotherapy and rehabilitation trials in AS were presented to the experts before a special 2-day meeting. Experts attending this meeting first defined a framework based on the main principles and thereafter collectively constructed six major recommendations on physiotherapy and rehabilitation in AS. After the meeting an email survey was conducted to rate the strength of the recommendations.   Six key recommendations which cover the general principles of rehabilitation in AS in terms of early intervention, initial and follow-up assessments and monitoring, contraindications and precautions, key advice for physiotherapy methods and exercise were constructed.   These recommendations were developed using evidence-based data and expert opinion. The implementation of these recommendations should encourage a more comprehensive and methodical approach in the rehabilitation of patients with AS. Regular lifelong exercise is the mainstay of rehabilitation and there is a considerable need for well-designed studies which will enlighten the role of physical therapy in the management of AS. © 2011 The Authors International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases © 2011 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

PubMed

Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

2015-01-01

The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

2017-12-01

Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams-Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

2014-03-01

Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

PubMed

Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

2017-01-01

Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

PubMed Central

Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

2017-01-01

Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters. PMID:28293678

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

PubMed

Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

Interictal epileptiform discharge characteristics underlying expert interrater agreement.

PubMed

Bagheri, Elham; Dauwels, Justin; Dean, Brian C; Waters, Chad G; Westover, M Brandon; Halford, Jonathan J

2017-10-01

The presence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IED) in the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a key finding in the medical workup of a patient with suspected epilepsy. However, inter-rater agreement (IRA) regarding the presence of IED is imperfect, leading to incorrect and delayed diagnoses. An improved understanding of which IED attributes mediate expert IRA might help in developing automatic methods for IED detection able to emulate the abilities of experts. Therefore, using a set of IED scored by a large number of experts, we set out to determine which attributes of IED predict expert agreement regarding the presence of IED. IED were annotated on a 5-point scale by 18 clinical neurophysiologists within 200 30-s EEG segments from recordings of 200 patients. 5538 signal analysis features were extracted from the waveforms, including wavelet coefficients, morphological features, signal energy, nonlinear energy operator response, electrode location, and spectrogram features. Feature selection was performed by applying elastic net regression and support vector regression (SVR) was applied to predict expert opinion, with and without the feature selection procedure and with and without several types of signal normalization. Multiple types of features were useful for predicting expert annotations, but particular types of wavelet features performed best. Local EEG normalization also enhanced best model performance. As the size of the group of EEGers used to train the models was increased, the performance of the models leveled off at a group size of around 11. The features that best predict inter-rater agreement among experts regarding the presence of IED are wavelet features, using locally standardized EEG. Our models for predicting expert opinion based on EEGer's scores perform best with a large group of EEGers (more than 10). By examining a large group of EEG signal analysis features we found that wavelet features with certain wavelet basis functions performed best to

Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

PubMed

Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

2014-12-01

Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

EXPLICIT: a feasibility study of remote expert elicitation in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

2017-09-04

Expert opinion is often sought to complement available information needed to inform model-based economic evaluations in health technology assessments. In this context, we define expert elicitation as the process of encoding expert opinion on a quantity of interest, together with associated uncertainty, as a probability distribution. When availability for face-to-face expert elicitation with a facilitator is limited, elicitation can be conducted remotely, overcoming challenges of finding an appropriate time to meet the expert and allowing access to experts situated too far away for practical face-to-face sessions. However, distance elicitation is associated with reduced response rates and limited assistance for the expert during the elicitation session. The aim of this study was to inform the development of a remote elicitation tool by exploring the influence of mode of elicitation on elicited beliefs. An Excel-based tool (EXPLICIT) was developed to assist the elicitation session, including the preparation of the expert and recording of their responses. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to provide expert opinion about population alcohol consumption behaviours. They were randomised to complete the elicitation by either a face-to-face meeting or email. EXPLICIT was used in the elicitation sessions for both arms. Fifteen GPs completed the elicitation session. Those conducted by email were longer than the face-to-face sessions (13 min 30 s vs 10 min 26 s, p = 0.1) and the email-elicited estimates contained less uncertainty. However, the resulting aggregated distributions were comparable. EXPLICIT was useful in both facilitating the elicitation task and in obtaining expert opinion from experts via email. The findings support the opinion that remote, self-administered elicitation is a viable approach within the constraints of HTA to inform policy making, although poor response rates may be observed and additional time for individual sessions may be required.

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health.

Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

2011-08-01

Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

2016-08-01

This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

PubMed

Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

2016-08-01

This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

PubMed

Freckelton, Ian

2007-12-01

A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey

PubMed Central

Deiner, Michael S.; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F.; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health. PMID:28813531

The why, the how and the when of PGS 2.0: current practices and expert opinions of fertility specialists, molecular biologists, and embryologists

PubMed Central

Sermon, Karen; Capalbo, Antonio; Cohen, Jacques; Coonen, Edith; De Rycke, Martine; De Vos, Anick; Delhanty, Joy; Fiorentino, Francesco; Gleicher, Norbert; Griesinger, Georg; Grifo, Jamie; Handyside, Alan; Harper, Joyce; Kokkali, Georgia; Mastenbroek, Sebastiaan; Meldrum, David; Meseguer, Marcos; Montag, Markus; Munné, Santiago; Rienzi, Laura; Rubio, Carmen; Scott, Katherine; Scott, Richard; Simon, Carlos; Swain, Jason; Treff, Nathan; Ubaldi, Filippo; Vassena, Rita; Vermeesch, Joris Robert; Verpoest, Willem; Wells, Dagan; Geraedts, Joep

2016-01-01

STUDY QUESTION We wanted to probe the opinions and current practices on preimplantation genetic screening (PGS), and more specifically on PGS in its newest form: PGS 2.0? STUDY FINDING Consensus is lacking on which patient groups, if any at all, can benefit from PGS 2.0 and, a fortiori, whether all IVF patients should be offered PGS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY It is clear from all experts that PGS 2.0 can be defined as biopsy at the blastocyst stage followed by comprehensive chromosome screening and possibly combined with vitrification. Most agree that mosaicism is less of an issue at the blastocyst stage than at the cleavage stage but whether mosaicism is no issue at all at the blastocyst stage is currently called into question. STUDY DESIGN, SAMPLES/MATERIALS, METHODS A questionnaire was developed on the three major aspects of PGS 2.0: the Why, with general questions such as PGS 2.0 indications; the How, specifically on genetic analysis methods; the When, on the ideal method and timing of embryo biopsy. Thirty-five colleagues have been selected to address these questions on the basis of their experience with PGS, and demonstrated by peer-reviewed publications, presentations at meetings and participation in the discussion. The first group of experts who were asked about ‘The Why’ comprised fertility experts, the second group of molecular biologists were asked about ‘The How’ and the third group of embryologists were asked about ‘The When’. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of the experts has been taken into account. Thirty have filled in the questionnaire as well as actively participated in the redaction of the current paper. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The 30 participants were from Europe (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK) and the USA. Array comparative genome hybridization is the most widely used method amongst the participants, but it is slowly being replaced by massive parallel sequencing. Most participants

Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

PubMed

Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

2013-04-01

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lafferty, Larry; Taylor, Greg; Schumann, Robin; Evans, Randy; Koller, Albert M., Jr.

1990-01-01

The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p1 and p2, respectively, p1+p2=1 . Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p3, 0 ≤p3≤1 , of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p1 of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p3.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange.

PubMed

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p_{1} and p_{2}, respectively, p_{1}+p_{2}=1. Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p_{3}, 0≤p_{3}≤1, of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p_{1} of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p_{3}.

Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

PubMed

Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

2013-05-01

What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

PubMed

Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

2009-04-01

Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p < .01, except for the breaststroke), participants considered overall that undulatory stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists.

Opinion evolution in open community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Qiuhui; Qin, Yao; Xu, Yiqun; Tong, Mengfei; He, Mingfeng

We consider a dynamic group composed with a constant number of people and the people will change periodically. Every member in the community owns a value of confidence — a mechanism that measures the agent’s coherence to his or her own attitude. Based on Cellular Automata, the opinions of all agents are synchronously updated. As long as the updating frequency and updating proportion are appropriate, the open system can reach a democracy-like steady state. The majority of agents in the community will hold the same opinion.

Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weed, Roger O.

2000-01-01

This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

PubMed Central

Cheung, William W.L.; Bruno, John F.

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets. PMID:29379692

Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion.

PubMed

Eddy, Tyler D; Cheung, William W L; Bruno, John F

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the 'shifting baseline syndrome'. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

Experts' opinions on the management of medically unexplained symptoms in primary care. A qualitative analysis of narrative reviews and scientific editorials.

PubMed

Heijmans, Mieke; Olde Hartman, Tim C; van Weel-Baumgarten, Evelyn; Dowrick, Christopher; Lucassen, Peter L B J; van Weel, Chris

2011-08-01

The feasibility as well as the suitability of several therapies for medically unexplained symptoms (MUS) in primary care applied by the family physician (FP) appeared to be low. FPs need effective and acceptable strategies to manage these functionally impaired patients. To review important and effective elements in the treatment of patients with MUS in primary care according to experts in MUS research. We performed a systematic search of narrative reviews and scientific editorials in Medline and PsycINFO and triangulated our findings by conducting a focus group with MUS experts. We included 7 scientific editorials and 23 narrative reviews. According to MUS experts, the most important elements in the treatment of MUS are creating a safe therapeutic environment, generic interventions (such as motivational interviewing, giving tangible explanations, reassurance and regularly scheduled appointments) and specific interventions (such as cognitive approaches and pharmacotherapy). Furthermore, MUS experts indicate that a multi-component approach in which these three important elements are combined are most helpful for patients with MUS. In contrast to most specific interventions, opinions of MUS experts regarding generic interventions and creating a safe therapeutic relationship seem to be more based on theory and experience than on quantitative research. MUS experts highlight the importance of generic interventions and doctor-patient communication and relationship. However, studies showing the effectiveness of these elements in the management of MUS in primary care is still scarce. Research as well as medical practice should focus more on these non-specific aspects of the medical consultation.

Pharmacotherapeutic agents in the treatment of methamphetamine dependence.

PubMed

Morley, Kirsten C; Cornish, Jennifer L; Faingold, Alon; Wood, Katie; Haber, Paul S

2017-05-01

Methamphetamine use is a serious public health concern in many countries and is second to cannabis as the most widely abused illicit drug in the world. Effective management for methamphetamine dependence remains elusive and the large majority of methamphetamine users relapse following treatment. Areas covered: Progression in the understanding of the pharmacological basis of methamphetamine use has provided us with innovative opportunities to develop agents to treat dependence. The current review summarizes relevant literature on the neurobiological and clinical correlates associated with methamphetamine use. We then outline agents that have been explored for potential treatments in preclinical studies, human laboratory phase I and phase II trials over the last ten years. Expert opinion: No agent has demonstrated a broad and strong effect in achieving MA abstinence in Phase II trials. Agents with novel therapeutic targets appear promising. Advancement in MA treatment, including translation into practice, faces several clinical challenges.

The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Rocca, C. E.; Braunstein, L. A.; Vazquez, F.

2014-05-01

We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number k that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against k=-M to totally in favor k = M. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability p, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability q. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for r=p/q\\gt 1 , where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values k=+/- M , or (b) a centralized state for r < 1, with most opinions around k=+/- 1 . When r \\gg 1 , polarization lasts for a time that diverges as r^M \\ln N , where N is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus (k = M or -M ) is reached in a time that scales as r^{-1} for r \\ll 1 .

Interplay between consensus and coherence in a model of interacting opinions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battiston, Federico; Cairoli, Andrea; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Baule, Adrian; Latora, Vito

2016-06-01

The formation of agents' opinions in a social system is the result of an intricate equilibrium among several driving forces. On the one hand, the social pressure exerted by peers favors the emergence of local consensus. On the other hand, the concurrent participation of agents to discussions on different topics induces each agent to develop a coherent set of opinions across all the topics in which he/she is active. Moreover, the pervasive action of external stimuli, such as mass media, pulls the entire population towards a specific configuration of opinions on different topics. Here we propose a model in which agents with interrelated opinions, interacting on several layers representing different topics, tend to spread their own ideas to their neighborhood, strive to maintain internal coherence, due to the fact that each agent identifies meaningful relationships among its opinions on the different topics, and are at the same time subject to external fields, resembling the pressure of mass media. We show that the presence of heterogeneity in the internal coupling assigned by agents to their different opinions allows to obtain states with mixed levels of consensus, still ensuring that all the agents attain a coherent set of opinions. Furthermore, we show that all the observed features of the model are preserved in the presence of thermal noise up to a critical temperature, after which global consensus is no longer attainable. This suggests the relevance of our results for real social systems, where noise is inevitably present in the form of information uncertainty and misunderstandings. The model also demonstrates how mass media can be effectively used to favor the propagation of a chosen set of opinions, thus polarizing the consensus of an entire population.

A hybrid model for opinion formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borra, Domenica; Lorenzi, Tommaso

2013-06-01

This paper presents a hybrid model for opinion formation in a large group of agents exposed to the persuasive action of a small number of strong opinion leaders. The model is defined by coupling a finite difference equation for the dynamics of leaders opinion with a continuous integro-differential equation for the dynamics of the others. Such a definition stems from the idea that the leaders are few and tend to retain original opinions, so that their dynamics occur on a longer time scale with respect to the one of the other agents. A general well-posedness result is established for the initial value problem linked to the model. The asymptotic behavior in time of the related solution is characterized for some general parameter settings, which mimic distinct social scenarios, where different emerging behaviors can be observed. Analytical results are illustrated and extended through numerical simulations.

Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

2017-08-01

Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation

PubMed Central

Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia. PMID:29494696

Evolution of public opinions in closed societies influenced by broadcast media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Kangqi; Pedrycz, Witold

2017-04-01

Studies on opinion evolution in a closed society can help people design strategies to emancipate from the control of public opinions and prevent the diffusion of extremism. In this work, the social judgment based opinion (SJBO) dynamics model is extended to explore the collective debates in a closed system that consists of a social network and a broadcast network. The broadcast network is a group of channels through which the so-called broadcast media or mainstream media transmit the same opinion to social agents. Numerical experiments show that the broadcast media can assimilate most of the agents when contrarians are absent. Including agents' diverse attitudes toward the broadcast media, although downsizes the supporters of broadcast media, fails to make contrarians outnumber the supporters. The dominance of broadcast media in a closed system can be overturned by introducing a small number of inflexible contrarians. Influenced by the competition between contrarians and broadcast media, few centrists survive the collective debates. The scale of supporters is maximized when agents neither have their own initial opinions nor have access to the contrarians, whereas the development of contrarians can be boosted when agents start with non-zero opinions and the repulsion to broadcast media is taken into consideration.

Field testing of the ICHD-3β and expert opinion criteria for chronic migraine.

PubMed

Jiang, Huahua; Deng, Yong; Zhang, Yixin; Jin, Jieli; Kong, Xueying; Zhu, Qiuwen; Wang, Kuiyun; Zhou, Jiying

2016-12-01

Chronic headache (CrH) occurs commonly in the population, and chronic migraine (CM) accounts for much of the CrH. Diagnostic criteria for CM remain controversial, and this could lead to undertreatment of CM. The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical profiles of CM and to field test the International Classification of Headache Disorders-3β criteria (ICHD-3β) and Expert Opinion criteria (EO) for CM application. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of CrH patients in our headache clinic during the period. Eligible patients were selected from CrH population based on Silberstein and Lipton criteria (S-L) for CM, and meanwhile fulfilled with migraine days at least 8 days/month. Then we evaluated the characteristics of clinic profiles and outcomes between patients diagnosed CM using ICHD-3β and EO criteria. Field tested the CM criteria Of ICHD-3β and EO. In a total of 710 CrH patients , 261 (36.8 %) were recruited with CM based on both S-L criteria and fulfilled at least 8 migraine days/month. Be understandable, all the 261 patients met the EO criteria, and only 185 (70.9 %) met ICHD-3β for CM. For the 76 patients who met EO but not ICHD-3β, 70 had atypical migraine attacks (probable migraine, PM), and another 6 had typical migraine attacks but less than a total history of 5 attacks. Although 173 (66.3 %) were concurrent with medication overuse, just one patient overused triptans and none used ergot agents. Clinical features were not significantly different between the ICHD-3β and EO criteria groups (P > 0.05), and neither were outcomes of prophylaxis (P = 0.966). Total migraine prophylaxis effectiveness was 73 %. Migraine-specific analgesics are rarely used in China, permitting patients with PM to avail themselves of "migraine days" is a reasonable accommodation for this difficult condition. In our hands, use of the new EO criteria for diagnosis of CM increases the sensitivity and maintains the specificity of decision making

Damage spreading and opinion dynamics on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortunato, Santo

2005-03-01

We study damage spreading among the opinions of a system of agents, subjected to the dynamics of the Krause-Hegselmann consensus model. The damage consists in a sharp change of the opinion of one or more agents in the initial random opinion configuration, supposedly due to some external factors and/or events. This may help to understand for instance under which conditions special shocking events or targeted propaganda are able to influence the results of elections. For agents lying on the nodes of a Barabási-Albert network, there is a damage spreading transition at a low value εd of the confidence bound parameter. Interestingly, we find as well that there is some critical value εs above which the initial perturbation manages to propagate to all other agents.

An opinion formation based binary optimization approach for feature selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Jalili, Mahdi; Yu, Xinghuo

2018-02-01

This paper proposed a novel optimization method based on opinion formation in complex network systems. The proposed optimization technique mimics human-human interaction mechanism based on a mathematical model derived from social sciences. Our method encodes a subset of selected features to the opinion of an artificial agent and simulates the opinion formation process among a population of agents to solve the feature selection problem. The agents interact using an underlying interaction network structure and get into consensus in their opinions, while finding better solutions to the problem. A number of mechanisms are employed to avoid getting trapped in local minima. We compare the performance of the proposed method with a number of classical population-based optimization methods and a state-of-the-art opinion formation based method. Our experiments on a number of high dimensional datasets reveal outperformance of the proposed algorithm over others.

A consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Han-Xin

2016-08-01

We propose a consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game. In our model, both of the two connected agents receive a benefit if they have the same opinion, otherwise they both pay a cost. Agents update their opinions by comparing payoffs with neighbors. The opinion of an agent with higher payoff is more likely to be imitated. We apply this model in scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal ratio of cost to benefit, leading to the shortest consensus time. Qualitative analysis is obtained by examining the evolution of the opinion clusters. Moreover, we find that the consensus time decreases as the average degree of the network increases, but increases with the noise introduced to permit irrational choices. The dependence of the consensus time on the network size is found to be a power-law form. For small or larger ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time decreases as the degree exponent increases. However, for moderate ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time increases with the degree exponent. Our results may provide new insights into opinion dynamics driven by the evolutionary game theory.

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care

PubMed Central

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. Design and intervention A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Setting Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Participants Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Primary outcome measures Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70–80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70–80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Results Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the ‘already dispensed here’ pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an ‘action taken’ documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. Conclusions This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. PMID:28478398

Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

PubMed Central

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

2014-01-01

Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

Expert Statement on the Single-Agent Use of Inhaled Bronchodilator in the Treatment of Stable Mild-Moderate Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

PubMed

Riesco Miranda, Juan Antonio; Alcázar, Bernardino; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Casanova, Ciro; Celli, Bartolomé; de-Torres, Juan P; Jiménez Ruiz, Carlos A

2017-10-01

To describe the evidence- and experience-based expert consensus on the use of single-agent bronchodilators in patients with stable mild-moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using Delphi methodology, a panel of 7 respiratory medicine experts was established, who, in the first nominal group meeting defined the scope, users, and document sections. The panel drew up 14 questions on the use of single-agent bronchodilators in patients with mild-moderate stable COPD to be answered with a systematic review of the literature. The results of the review were discussed in a second nominal group meeting and 17 statements were generated. Agreement/disagreement with the statements was tested among16 different experts including respiratory medicine experts and primary care physicians. Statements were scored from1 (total disagreement) to10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation of the systematic literature review was assessed using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine levels. A total of 12 of the 17 statements were selected. Specific statements were generated on different profiles of patients with stable mild-moderate COPD in whom single-agent bronchodilators could be prescribed. These statements on the use of single-agent bronchodilators might improve the outcomes and prognosis of patients with stable mild-moderate COPD. Copyright © 2017 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion.

PubMed

Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

2017-01-01

Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30-40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion

PubMed Central

Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

2017-01-01

Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30–40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention. PMID:28634579

29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony...

Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2012-01-01

We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. PMID:22984516

Discrete model of opinion changes using knowledge and emotions as control variables.

PubMed

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2012-01-01

We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda.

Stochastic opinion formation in scale-free networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. Bartolozzi; D. B. Leinweber; A. W. Thomas

2005-10-01

The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex nonlinear phenomenon whose investigation is just beginning. Both collective behavior and personal views play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two states 1, as a stochastic response of each agent to the opinion of his/her neighbors in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabsi-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of themore » interactions. A turbulent-like dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behavior, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three-state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow-Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.« less

Physical examination and laboratory tests in the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis: development of recommendations for clinical practice based on published evidence and expert opinion.

PubMed

Pham, Thao; Gossec, Laure; Fautrel, Bruno; Combe, Bernard; Flipo, René-Marc; Goupille, Philippe; Le Loët, Xavier; Mariette, Xavier; Puéchal, Xavier; Wendling, Daniel; Schaeverbeke, Thierry; Sibilia, Jean; Sany, Jacques; Dougados, Maxime

2005-05-01

To develop recommendations for the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) seen in everyday practice, using evidence from the literature, supplemented with expert opinion when needed. A scientific committee selected 7-10 questions using the Delphi consensus procedure. Evidence-based responses to each question were sought in the literature and were then used by a panel to develop recommendations. To fill in gaps in knowledge from the literature, the panelists relied on their personal opinion. The seven questions dealt with the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of RA and the factors predicting disease severity. The literature review identified 799 articles whose title and abstract suggested relevance to the study. Elimination of articles that provided no data on the study topic left 128 original articles. The panel developed seven recommendations, one for each question, which were accepted by consensus. Recommendations about the physical and laboratory-test follow-up of patients with RA seen in everyday practice were developed. Because they constitute an objective foundation built by consensus among experts, should improve the uniformity and quality of care provided to RA patients in everyday practice.

The formation of continuous opinion dynamics based on a gambling mechanism and its sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yueying; Alexandre Wang, Qiuping; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

2017-09-01

The formation of continuous opinion dynamics is investigated based on a virtual gambling mechanism where agents fight for a limited resource. We propose a model with agents holding opinions between -1 and 1. Agents are segregated into two cliques according to the sign of their opinions. Local communication happens only when the opinion distance between corresponding agents is no larger than a pre-defined confidence threshold. Theoretical analysis regarding special cases provides a deep understanding of the roles of both the resource allocation parameter and confidence threshold in the formation of opinion dynamics. For a sparse network, the evolution of opinion dynamics is negligible in the region of low confidence threshold when the mindless agents are absent. Numerical results also imply that, in the presence of economic agents, high confidence threshold is required for apparent clustering of agents in opinion. Moreover, a consensus state is generated only when the following three conditions are satisfied simultaneously: mindless agents are absent, the resource is concentrated in one clique, and confidence threshold tends to a critical value(=1.25+2/ka ; k_a>8/3 , the average number of friends of individual agents). For fixed a confidence threshold and resource allocation parameter, the most chaotic steady state of the dynamics happens when the fraction of mindless agents is about 0.7. It is also demonstrated that economic agents are more likely to win at gambling, compared to mindless ones. Finally, the importance of three involved parameters in establishing the uncertainty of model response is quantified in terms of Latin hypercube sampling-based sensitivity analysis.

Expert opinions of the first italian consensus conference on the management of malignant pleural mesothelioma.

PubMed

Pinto, Carmine; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Betta, Pier Giacomo; Facciolo, Francesco; Tassi, Gianfranco; Tonoli, Sandro; Zompatori, Maurizio; Alessandrini, Gabriele; Magrini, Stefano Maria; Tiseo, Marcello; Mutri, Vita

2011-02-01

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a very important public health issue. A large amount of data indicates a relationship between mesothelioma and asbestos exposure. The incidence has both considerably and constantly increased over the past 2 decades in the industrialized countries and is expected to peak in 2010-2020. In Italy, a standardized-rate incidence in 2002 among men was 2.98 per 100,000 and 0.98 per 100,000 among women, with wide differences from one region to another. Stage diagnosis and definition may be difficult. Management of patients with MPM remains complex, so an optimal treatment strategy has not yet been clearly defined. The First Italian Consensus Conference on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma was held Bologna (Italy) in May 20, 2008. The Consensus Conference was given the patronage of the Italian scientific societies AIOM, AIRO, AIPO, SIC, SICO, SICT, SIAPEC-IAP, AIOT, GOAM, and GIME. This Consensus did not answer all of the unresolved questions in MPM management, but the Expert Opinions have nonetheless provided recommendations, presented in this report, on MPM management for clinicians and patients.

Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

1990-01-01

A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

38 CFR 3.328 - lndependent medical opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... would be harmful to the physical or mental health of the claimant, disclosure shall be subject to the... experts who are not employees of VA. Opinions shall be obtained from recognized medical schools...

Rise of an alternative majority against opinion leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci, K.; González-Avella, J. C.; Cosenza, M. G.

2016-03-01

We investigate the role of opinion leaders or influentials in the collective behavior of a social system. Opinion leaders are characterized by their unidirectional influence on other agents. We employ a model based on Axelrod's dynamics for cultural interaction among social agents that allows for non-interacting states. We find three collective phases in the space of parameters of the system, given by the fraction of opinion leaders and a quantity representing the number of available states: one ordered phase having the state imposed by the leaders; another nontrivial ordered phase consisting of a majority group in a state orthogonal or alternative to that of the opinion leaders, and a disordered phase, where many small groups coexist. We show that the spontaneous rise of an alternative group in the presence of opinion leaders depends on the existence of a minimum number of long-range connections in the underlying network. This phenomenon challenges the common idea that influentials are fundamental to propagation processes in society, such as the formation of public opinion.

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

PubMed

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-05-06

This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Political opinion formation: Initial opinion distribution and individual heterogeneity of tolerance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Cheng; Li, Yifu; Jin, Xiaogang

2017-02-01

Opinion dynamics on networks have received serious attention for its profound prospects in social behaviours and self-organized systems. However, political opinion formation, as one typical and significant case, remains lacking in discussion. Previous agent-based simulations propose various models that are based on different mechanisms like the coevolution between network topology and status transition. Nonetheless, even under the same network topology and with the same simple mechanism, forming opinions can still be uncertain. In this work, we propose two features, the initial distribution of opinions and the individual heterogeneity of tolerances on opinion changing, in political opinion formation. These two features are imbedded in the network construction phase of a classical model. By comparing multi simple-party systems, along with a detailed analysis on the two-party system, we capture the critical phenomenon of fragmentation, polarization and consensus both in the persistent stable stage and in-process. We further introduce the average ratio of nearest neighbours to characterize the stage of opinion formation. The results show that the initial distribution of opinions leads to different evolution results on similar random networks. In addition, the existence of stubborn nodes plays a special role: only nodes that are extremely stubborn can cause the change of final opinion distribution while in other cases they only delay the time to reach stability. If stubborn nodes are small in number, their effects are confined within a small range. This theoretical work goes deeper on an existing model, it is an early exploration on qualitative and quantitative simulation of party competition.

Impact of memory on opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jędrzejewski, Arkadiusz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

2018-09-01

We investigate an agent-based model of opinion dynamics with two types of social response: conformity and independence. Conformity is introduced to the model analogously as in the Sznajd model or q-voter model, which means that only unanimous group exerts peer pressure on individuals. The novelty, in relation to previous versions of the q-voter model, is memory possessed by each agent and external noise T, which plays the role of social temperature. Each agent has its own memories of past experiences related to the social costs and benefits of being independent or conformist. If an agent was awarded in past more for being independent, it will have a greater tendency to be independent than conformist and vice versa. We will show that depending on the social temperature T the system spontaneously organizes into one of two regimes. Below a certain critical social temperature Tc, all agents in the society acquire personal traits (so called person state). Some of them become permanent conformists and others start to behave forever independently. This means that initially homogeneous population becomes heterogeneous, and agents respond differently to social influence. For T >Tc, all agents with equal probabilities behave independently or conform to peer pressure (so called situation state). This regime change between person and situation state, which reminds the idea of an annealed vs. quenched disorder, affects also public opinion. Particularly interesting results are obtained for individualistic societies, in which public opinion is non-monotonic function of T, which means that there is an optimal social temperature for which an agreement in the society is the highest.

Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

PubMed

Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines

PubMed Central

Rath, Ehud; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

2017-01-01

Abstract The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3–8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions. PMID:28630722

Analysis and application of opinion model with multiple topic interactions.

PubMed

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ximeng

2017-08-01

To reveal heterogeneous behaviors of opinion evolution in different scenarios, we propose an opinion model with topic interactions. Individual opinions and topic features are represented by a multidimensional vector. We measure an agent's action towards a specific topic by the product of opinion and topic feature. When pairs of agents interact for a topic, their actions are introduced to opinion updates with bounded confidence. Simulation results show that a transition from a disordered state to a consensus state occurs at a critical point of the tolerance threshold, which depends on the opinion dimension. The critical point increases as the dimension of opinions increases. Multiple topics promote opinion interactions and lead to the formation of macroscopic opinion clusters. In addition, more topics accelerate the evolutionary process and weaken the effect of network topology. We use two sets of large-scale real data to evaluate the model, and the results prove its effectiveness in characterizing a real evolutionary process. Our model achieves high performance in individual action prediction and even outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Meanwhile, our model has much smaller computational complexity. This paper provides a demonstration for possible practical applications of theoretical opinion dynamics.

School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fickes, Michael

2001-01-01

Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

PubMed

Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

2015-01-01

Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

Effects of convincing power and neutrality on minority opinion spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yue; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Yi

2017-02-01

The dynamics evolution of the minority opinion in public debates is studied using a convincing power (CP) model with neutrality. In a given group, an agent with a definite standpoint (yes or no) can be persuaded to be a neutral agent, if its capacity of persuasion is lower than the average CP of its opponents. Besides that a neutral agent will change its state and follow a more persuasive opinion. Starting from two opposite opinions with different rates, repeated local discussions are found to drive the minority reversal. It reveals that in addition to the initial minority, the number of neutral agents is also an important factor to the eventual winners. During the process of consensus, there exists a threshold of initial fraction to guarantee one side win. The results have a guiding significance for designing strategies to win a public debate.

[Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

PubMed

Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

2005-01-01

Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

PubMed

Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

2017-06-01

There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

Social judgment theory based model on opinion formation, polarization and evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chau, H. F.; Wong, C. Y.; Chow, F. K.; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

2014-12-01

The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic that physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on microscopic opinion change. Here we introduce a generic model of opinion formation with homogeneous agents based on the well-known social judgment theory in social psychology by extending a similar model proposed by Jager and Amblard. The agents’ opinions will eventually cluster around extreme and/or moderate opinions forming three phases in a two-dimensional parameter space that describes the microscopic opinion response of the agents. The dynamics of this model can be qualitatively understood by mean-field analysis. More importantly, first-order phase transition in opinion distribution is observed by evolving the system under a slow change in the system parameters, showing that punctuated equilibria in public opinion can occur even in a fully connected social network.

[The criteria for appointing experts in forensic medicine].

PubMed

Vojtíšek, Tomáš

In the Czech Republic, forensic medicine is an independent medical field, in which physicians with the appropriate attestation perform expert activities, especially in criminal proceedings, after being formally appointed by a regional court. In order to improve the quality of the activities provided by these experts, the Ministry of Justice is endeavouring to tighten up the general conditions for the appointment of new forensic experts. The individual criteria do not, however, take into account the special nature of forensic medicine as a medical field, the very essence of which involves the specialist qualifications which are necessary for the provision of expert opinions, most frequently to the police. In particular, the introduction of a strict requirement for ten-years of work experience after leaving medical school has hindered and stalled the entrance of young physicians with completed post-graduate studies into the area of forensic medicine. An inquiry sent to the regional courts has discovered that the average length of work experience for newly appointed experts in the period from 2004 to 2013 was 8.2 years, that half of them had work experience of seven years or less and that 75 percent of the newly appointed experts did not meet any set requirements for the length of their work experience at the time of their appointment. The new conditions may have a negative impact on attracting qualified graduates to forensic medicine after the completion of their medical studies and in the long term it may endanger the ability of the field of forensic medicine to provide expert opinions in criminal proceedings. In conclusion, it is the authors opinion that the appointment conditions should be set in cooperation with the professional medical associations and that they should take into account the specific characteristics of the individual medical fields, especially if they are to be set directly by means of a legal regulation within the framework of the recodification

[Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

PubMed

Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

2018-04-01

Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Voter models with contrarian agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Naoki

2013-11-01

In the voter and many other opinion formation models, agents are assumed to behave as congregators (also called the conformists); they are attracted to the opinions of others. In this study I investigate linear extensions of the voter model with contrarian agents. An agent is either congregator or contrarian and assumes a binary opinion. I investigate three models that differ in the behavior of the contrarian toward other agents. In model 1, contrarians mimic the opinions of other contrarians and oppose (i.e., try to select the opinion opposite to) those of congregators. In model 2, contrarians mimic the opinions of congregators and oppose those of other contrarians. In model 3, contrarians oppose anybody. In all models, congregators are assumed to like anybody. I show that even a small number of contrarians prohibits the consensus in the entire population to be reached in all three models. I also obtain the equilibrium distributions using the van Kampen small-fluctuation approximation and the Fokker-Planck equation for the case of many contrarians and a single contrarian, respectively. I show that the fluctuation around the symmetric coexistence equilibrium is much larger in model 2 than in models 1 and 3 when contrarians are rare.

A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. Daniel

1990-01-01

We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-10-01

Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

Efficiency and factors influencing efficiency of Community Health Strategy in providing Maternal and Child Health services in Mwingi District, Kenya: an expert opinion perspective

PubMed Central

Nzioki, Japheth Mativo; Onyango, Rosebella Ogutu; Ombaka, James Herbert

2015-01-01

Introduction Community Health Strategy (CHS) is a new Primary Health Care (PHC) model in Kenya, designed to provide PHC services in Kenya. In 2011, CHS was initiated in Mwingi district as one of the components of APHIA plus kamili program. The objectives of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in Mwingi district and to establish the factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in the district. Methods This was a qualitative study. Fifteen Key informants were sampled from key stakeholders. Sampling was done using purposive and maximum variation sampling methods. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used for data collection. Data was managed and analyzed using NVIVO. Framework analysis and quasi statistics were used in data analysis. Results Expert opinion data indicated that the CHS was efficient in providing MCH services. Factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in provision of MCH services were: challenges facing Community Health Workers (CHWs), Social cultural and economic factors influencing MCH in the district, and motivation among CHWs. Conclusion Though CHS was found to be efficient in providing MCH services, this was an expert opinion perspective, a quantitative Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) to confirm these findings is recommended. To improve efficiency of the CHS in the district, challenges facing CHWs and Social cultural and economic factors that influence efficiency of the CHS in the district need to be addressed. PMID:26090046

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

PubMed

Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

2016-01-01

The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

PubMed Central

Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

2016-01-01

The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results

Opinions, Conflicts, and Consensus: Modeling Social Dynamics in a Collaborative Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2013-02-01

Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia.

Opinions, conflicts, and consensus: modeling social dynamics in a collaborative environment.

PubMed

Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2013-02-22

Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

Range of interaction in an opinion evolution model of ideological self-positioning: Contagion, hesitance and polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimenez, M. Cecilia; Paz García, Ana Pamela; Burgos Paci, Maxi A.; Reinaudi, Luis

2016-04-01

The evolution of public opinion using tools and concepts borrowed from Statistical Physics is an emerging area within the field of Sociophysics. In the present paper, a Statistical Physics model was developed to study the evolution of the ideological self-positioning of an ensemble of agents. The model consists of an array of L components, each one of which represents the ideology of an agent. The proposed mechanism is based on the ;voter model;, in which one agent can adopt the opinion of another one if the difference of their opinions lies within a certain range. The existence of ;undecided; agents (i.e. agents with no definite opinion) was implemented in the model. The possibility of radicalization of an agent's opinion upon interaction with another one was also implemented. The results of our simulations are compared to statistical data taken from the Latinobarómetro databank for the cases of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay in the last decade. Among other results, the effect of taking into account the undecided agents is the formation of a single peak at the middle of the ideological spectrum (which corresponds to a centrist ideological position), in agreement with the real cases studied.

Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence and Aptitude Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyderman, Mark; Rothman, Stanley

1987-01-01

Psychologists and educational specialists with expertise in areas related to intelligence testing responded to a questionnaire dealing with possible racial and socioeconomic bias of IQ tests. Overall, experts hold positive attitudes about the validity and usefulness of intelligence and aptitude tests. (Author/LHW)

Opinion dynamics on an adaptive random network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benczik, I. J.; Benczik, S. Z.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

2009-04-01

We revisit the classical model for voter dynamics in a two-party system with two basic modifications. In contrast to the original voter model studied in regular lattices, we implement the opinion formation process in a random network of agents in which interactions are no longer restricted by geographical distance. In addition, we incorporate the rapidly changing nature of the interpersonal relations in the model. At each time step, agents can update their relationships. This update is determined by their own opinion, and by their preference to make connections with individuals sharing the same opinion, or rather with opponents. In this way, the network is built in an adaptive manner, in the sense that its structure is correlated and evolves with the dynamics of the agents. The simplicity of the model allows us to examine several issues analytically. We establish criteria to determine whether consensus or polarization will be the outcome of the dynamics and on what time scales these states will be reached. In finite systems consensus is typical, while in infinite systems a disordered metastable state can emerge and persist for infinitely long time before consensus is reached.

Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

PubMed

MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

2008-08-01

This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

PubMed Central

Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

2016-01-01

Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely�

Role of conviction in nonequilibrium models of opinion formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno; Anteneodo, Celia

2012-12-01

We analyze the critical behavior of a class of discrete opinion models in the presence of disorder. Within this class, each agent opinion takes a discrete value (±1 or 0) and its time evolution is ruled by two terms, one representing agent-agent interactions and the other the degree of conviction or persuasion (a self-interaction). The mean-field limit, where each agent can interact evenly with any other, is considered. Disorder is introduced in the strength of both interactions, with either quenched or annealed random variables. With probability p (1-p), a pairwise interaction reflects a negative (positive) coupling, while the degree of conviction also follows a binary probability distribution (two different discrete probability distributions are considered). Numerical simulations show that a nonequilibrium continuous phase transition, from a disordered state to a state with a prevailing opinion, occurs at a critical point pc that depends on the distribution of the convictions, with the transition being spoiled in some cases. We also show how the critical line, for each model, is affected by the update scheme (either parallel or sequential) as well as by the kind of disorder (either quenched or annealed).

Legal Decisions and Opinions in Pollution Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hills, John P.

1976-01-01

When dealing with the "frontier of scientific knowledge" and questions of public health, United States courts are waiving traditional burdens of proof, giving increased weight to expert opinions and/or lowering their standard of necessary proof. Recent cases involving asbestos, pesticides, lead in gasoline, and vinyl chlorides are discussed. (BT)

Entropic determination of the phase transition in a coevolving opinion-formation model.

PubMed

Burgos, E; Hernández, Laura; Ceva, H; Perazzo, R P J

2015-03-01

We study an opinion formation model by the means of a coevolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterized by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics, based on a global majority rule, depends on an external parameter that controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to the distribution of group sizes allows us to locate the phase transition between a phase of full consensus and another, where different opinions coexist. We also determine the minimum size of the most informative sampling. At the transition the distribution of the sizes of groups holding the same opinion is scale free.

Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

PubMed

West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

2017-09-01

The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors Influencing Continuing Professional Development: A Delphi Study among Nursing Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brekelmans, Gerard; Poell, Rob F.; van Wijk, Kees

2013-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach: A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing employers, managers, education institutions, and…

Sznajd Opinion Dynamics with Global and Local Neighborhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulze, Christian

In this modification of the Sznajd consensus model on the square lattice, two people of arbitrary distance who agree in their opinions convince their nearest neighbors of this opinion. Similarly to the mean field theory of Slanina and Lavicka, the times needed to reach consensus are distributed exponentially and are quite small. The width of the phase transition vanishes reciprocally to the linear lattice dimension. Advertising has effects independent of the system size. For more than two opinions, three opinions reach a consensus in roughly half of the samples, and four only rarely and only for small lattices. Up to 109 agents were simulated.

Nursing opinion leadership: a preliminary model derived from philosophic theories of rational belief.

PubMed

Anderson, Christine A; Whall, Ann L

2013-10-01

Opinion leaders are informal leaders who have the ability to influence others' decisions about adopting new products, practices or ideas. In the healthcare setting, the importance of translating new research evidence into practice has led to interest in understanding how opinion leaders could be used to speed this process. Despite continued interest, gaps in understanding opinion leadership remain. Agent-based models are computer models that have proven to be useful for representing dynamic and contextual phenomena such as opinion leadership. The purpose of this paper is to describe the work conducted in preparation for the development of an agent-based model of nursing opinion leadership. The aim of this phase of the model development project was to clarify basic assumptions about opinions, the individual attributes of opinion leaders and characteristics of the context in which they are effective. The process used to clarify these assumptions was the construction of a preliminary nursing opinion leader model, derived from philosophical theories about belief formation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

2016-08-01

Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world.

Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2013-04-01

only within single networks but also between networks, and because the rules of opinion formation within a network may differ from those between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in coupled networks. Each network represents a social group or community and the interdependent links joining individuals from different networks may be social ties that are unusually strong, e.g., married couples. We apply the non-consensus opinion (NCO) rule on each individual network and the global majority rule on interdependent pairs such that two interdependent agents with different opinions will, due to the influence of mass media, follow the majority opinion of the entire population. The opinion interactions within each network and the interdependent links across networks interlace periodically until a steady state is reached. We find that the interdependent links effectively force the system from a second order phase transition, which is characteristic of the NCO model on a single network, to a hybrid phase transition, i.e., a mix of second-order and abrupt jump-like transitions that ultimately becomes, as we increase the percentage of interdependent agents, a pure abrupt transition. We conclude that for the NCO model on coupled networks, interactions through interdependent links could push the non-consensus opinion model to a consensus opinion model, which mimics the reality that increased mass communication causes people to hold opinions that are increasingly similar. We also find that the effect of interdependent links is more pronounced in interdependent scale free networks than in interdependent Erdős Rényi networks.

Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

2009-01-01

Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains.

PubMed

Rohde, Christine; Resch, Grégory; Pirnay, Jean-Paul; Blasdel, Bob G; Debarbieux, Laurent; Gelman, Daniel; Górski, Andrzej; Hazan, Ronen; Huys, Isabelle; Kakabadze, Elene; Łobocka, Małgorzata; Maestri, Alice; Almeida, Gabriel Magno de Freitas; Makalatia, Khatuna; Malik, Danish J; Mašlaňová, Ivana; Merabishvili, Maia; Pantucek, Roman; Rose, Thomas; Štveráková, Dana; Van Raemdonck, Hilde; Verbeken, Gilbert; Chanishvili, Nina

2018-04-05

Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a "new" potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the "Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research" conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26-29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application.

Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains

PubMed Central

Rohde, Christine; Resch, Grégory; Blasdel, Bob G.; Gelman, Daniel; Górski, Andrzej; Hazan, Ronen; Huys, Isabelle; Kakabadze, Elene; Łobocka, Małgorzata; Maestri, Alice; Makalatia, Khatuna; Malik, Danish J.; Mašlaňová, Ivana; Merabishvili, Maia; Rose, Thomas; Štveráková, Dana; Van Raemdonck, Hilde; Verbeken, Gilbert; Chanishvili, Nina

2018-01-01

Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a “new” potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the “Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research” conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26–29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application. PMID:29621199

Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

2016-08-01

Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel

PubMed Central

Estey, Elihu; Grimwade, David; Amadori, Sergio; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Büchner, Thomas; Dombret, Hervé; Ebert, Benjamin L.; Fenaux, Pierre; Larson, Richard A.; Levine, Ross L.; Lo-Coco, Francesco; Naoe, Tomoki; Niederwieser, Dietger; Ossenkoppele, Gert J.; Sanz, Miguel; Sierra, Jorge; Tallman, Martin S.; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Wei, Andrew H.; Löwenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D.

2017-01-01

The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease. PMID:27895058

Identification, prevention and management of cardiovascular risk in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients candidate to ponatinib: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Breccia, Massimo; Pregno, Patrizia; Spallarossa, Paolo; Arboscello, Eleonora; Ciceri, Fabio; Giorgi, Mauro; Grossi, Alberto; Mallardo, Mario; Nodari, Savina; Ottolini, Stefano; Sala, Carla; Tortorella, Giovanni; Rosti, Gianantonio; Pane, Fabrizio; Minotti, Giorgio; Baccarani, Michele

2017-04-01

Ponatinib (Iclusig, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals-Incyte Co.) is a third-generation structure-guided tyrosine kinase inhibitor that is approved for treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive leukaemias resistant or intolerant to other inhibitors. The clinical use of ponatinib is complicated by the possible development of cardiovascular events, primarily hypertension and arterial or venous thrombotic events. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicine Agency recommend that the cardiovascular profile of patients candidate for ponatinib should be carefully evaluated. For patients deemed to carry a high risk of cardiovascular events, other life-saving therapeutic options should be considered. When alternative options are not available, treatment with ponatinib is indicated but requires that haematologists and cardiologists collaborate and identify modalities of surveillance and risk mitigation in the best interest of the patient. This article reports on the expert opinion provided by a panel of Italian haematologists, cardiologists and clinical pharmacologists. It summarises suggestions that may help to improve the therapeutic index of ponatinib, primarily in the settings of chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia.

[Quality of genetic services--analysis of medical genetic expert opinions solicited by private health insurance companies].

PubMed

Nippert, Reinhardt Peter; Schmidtke, Jörg

2012-01-01

Service quality for patients with genetic conditions can be assessed through the analysis of clinical genetic data sets, as was the case in this study. It represents a secondary analysis of a compilation of a single genetic expert's medical opinions covering the years 2000 to 2009, solicited by private health insurance companies with the intention of probing into medical necessity and adequacy of genetic testing ordered by physicians. Genetic testing has become an increasingly important part of clinical diagnostic services. Controlling these services does not only reduce costs but also saves patients from unwarranted over-utilisation. Therefore, the reasons given by doctors when ordering genetic tests are part of the quality of service delivery. The study revealed that more than 30% of the molecular genetic tests ordered lack sound medical reasoning and 30% of the cases studied show violation or neglect of guidelines and recommendations for diagnostic procedures with respect to genetic testing. In essence, the findings indicate a need for human genetic information among physicians. Their professional organisations are called upon to design and offer CME/CPD programmes in medical genetics to maintain and continually improve the quality of medical genetic care for patients with genetic conditions. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Comparative effectiveness research: what to do when experts disagree about risks.

PubMed

Lie, Reidar K; Chan, Francis K L; Grady, Christine; Ng, Vincent H; Wendler, David

2017-06-19

Ethical issues related to comparative effectiveness research, or research that compares existing standards of care, have recently received considerable attention. In this paper we focus on how Ethics Review Committees (ERCs) should evaluate the risks of comparative effectiveness research. We discuss what has been a prominent focus in the debate about comparative effectiveness research, namely that it is justified when "nothing is known" about the comparative effectiveness of the available alternatives. We argue that this focus may be misleading. Rather, we should focus on the fact that some experts believe that the evidence points in favor of one intervention, whereas other experts believe that the evidence favors the alternative(s). We will then introduce a case that illustrates this point, and based on that, discuss how ERCs should deal with such cases of expert disagreement. We argue that ERCs have a duty to assess the range of expert opinions and based on that assessment arrive at a risk judgment about the study under consideration. We also argue that assessment of expert disagreement is important for the assignment of risk level to a clinical trial: what is the basis for expert opinions, how strong is the evidence appealed to by various experts, and how can clinical trial monitoring affect the possible increased risk of clinical trial participation.

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

PubMed

Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

2016-07-26

When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30

Expert Concept Mapping Study on Mobile Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borner, Dirk; Glahn, Christian; Stoyanov, Slavi; Kalz, Marco; Specht, Marcus

2010-01-01

Purpose: The present paper introduces concept mapping as a structured participative conceptualization approach to identify clusters of ideas and opinions generated by experts within the domain of mobile learning. Utilizing this approach, the paper aims to contribute to a definition of key domain characteristics by identifying the main educational…

Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackiewicz, Jo

2008-01-01

Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

PubMed

Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

Radiation countermeasure agents: an update (2011 – 2014)

PubMed Central

Newman, Victoria L; Romaine, Patricia LP; Wise, Stephen Y; Seed, Thomas M

2014-01-01

Introduction Despite significant scientific advances over the past 60 years towards the development of a safe, nontoxic and effective radiation countermeasure for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS), no drug has been approved by the US FDA. A radiation countermeasure to protect the population at large from the effects of lethal radiation exposure remains a significant unmet medical need of the US citizenry and, thus, has been recognized as a high priority area by the government. Area covered This article reviews relevant publications and patents for recent developments and progress for potential ARS treatments in the area of radiation countermeasures. Emphasis is placed on the advanced development of existing agents since 2011 and new agents identified as radiation countermeasure for ARS during this period. Expert opinion A number of promising radiation countermeasures are currently under development, seven of which have received US FDA investigational new drug status for clinical investigation. Four of these agents, CBLB502, Ex-RAD, HemaMax and OrbeShield, are progressing with large animal studies and clinical trials. G-CSF has high potential and well-documented therapeutic effects in countering myelosuppression and may receive full licensing approval by the US FDA in the future. PMID:25315070

Mental illness and legal fitness (competence) to stand trial in New York State: expert opinion and criminal defendants' psychiatric symptoms.

PubMed

Lee, Eugene; Rosner, Richard; Harmon, Ronnie

2014-07-01

Fitness to Stand Trial is a critical concept in the adjudication of justice-involved persons. A retrospective study was conducted to examine criminal defendants' specific psychiatric symptoms and those symptoms' associations with expert opinions on Competence to Stand Trial. One hundred charts were reviewed: 50 Cases (opined as Not Fit) were compared against 50 Controls (opined as Fit) with respect to ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). A significance level of 0.001 was selected a priori. Statistically significant differences were found in seven of the eighteen BPRS symptom constructs (with the highest differences in Conceptual Disorganization and Unusual Thought Content) and two of the four BPRS higher-order syndrome factors (Thinking Disorder and Hostile-Suspiciousness). Consistent with previous reports, psychotic symptoms are found in this study to be inversely associated with Fitness. Validity, reliability, and limitations of this study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed herein. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

2008-01-01

The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

Opinion dynamics in two dimensions: domain coarsening leads to stable bi-polarization and anomalous scaling exponents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez-Rojas, F.; Vazquez, F.

2018-04-01

We study an opinion dynamics model that explores the competition between persuasion and compromise in a population of agents with nearest-neighbor interactions on a two-dimensional square lattice. Each agent can hold either a positive or a negative opinion orientation, and can have two levels of intensity—moderate and extremist. When two interacting agents have the same orientation they become extremists with persuasion probability p, while if they have opposite orientations they become moderate with compromise probability q. These updating rules lead to the formation of same-opinion domains with a coarsening dynamics that depends on the ratio r  =  p/q. The population initially evolves to a centralized state for small r, where domains are composed of moderate agents and coarsening is without surface tension, and to a bi-polarized state for large r, where domains are formed by extremist agents and coarsening is driven by curvature. Consensus in an extreme opinion is finally reached in a time that scales with the population size N and r as for small r and as for large r. Bi-polarization could be quite stable when the system falls into a striped state where agents organize into single-opinion horizontal, vertical or diagonal bands. An analysis of the stripe dynamics towards consensus allows us to obtain an approximate expression for τ, which shows that the exponent 1.64 is a result of the diffusion of the stripe interfaces combined with their roughness properties.

Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

Treesearch

Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

2011-01-01

REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

[Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake.part 1. between medicine and justice.

PubMed

Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

2017-01-01

Creating medico-legal opinion is a sophisticated investigative, analytical, decision-making and creative process. Forensic medicine specialist in cooperation with clinical medicine consultants, on the basis of evidence analysis, which was gathered during procedures and contained in the acts has to create an objective and essential opinion. This opinion is a vital, very important and irreplaceable proof in every case. Judicial body consults with forensic medicine specialist or specialists if there are circumstances for settlement of which there is a need of classified informations - art. 193 of Penalty Code. Forensic medicine specialists face many difficulties which may have effect on quality, positiveness of opinion, compliance with the deadline, increasing expectancy of judicial body or sides. It is very difficult to find clinical specialists which except their clinical knowledge have basic knowledge about law, the role and duties of an court expert. In this article we discuss creating-opinion problems, role and position of court expert in confrontation with expectations of judicial body and the Justice with particular emphasis on medical mistakes and assessment of medical proceedings. We show the complexity of creating of medical opinions, especially these institutional.

The influence of local majority opinions on the dynamics of the Sznajd model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno

2014-03-01

In this work we study a Sznajd-like opinion dynamics on a square lattice of linear size L. For this purpose, we consider that each agent has a convincing power C, that is a time-dependent quantity. Each high convincing power group of four agents sharing the same opinion may convince its neighbors to follow the group opinion, which induces an increase of the group's convincing power. In addition, we have considered that a group with a local majority opinion (3 up/1 down spins or 1 up/3 down spins) can persuade the agents neighboring the group with probability p, since the group's convincing power is high enough. The two mechanisms (convincing powers and probability p) lead to an increase of the competition among the opinions, which avoids dictatorship (full consensus, all spins parallel) for a wide range of model's parameters, and favors the occurrence of democratic states (partial order, the majority of spins pointing in one direction). We have found that the relaxation times of the model follow log-normal distributions, and that the average relaxation time τ grows with system size as τ ~ L5/2, independent of p. We also discuss the occurrence of the usual phase transition of the Sznajd model.

Opinion data mining based on DNA method and ORA software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Ru-Ya; Wu, Lei; Liang, Xiao-He; Zhang, Xue-Fu

2018-01-01

Public opinion, especially the online public opinion is a critical issue when it comes to mining its characteristics. Because it can be formed directly and intensely in a short time, and may lead to the outbreak of online group events, and the formation of online public opinion crisis. This may become the pushing hand of a public crisis event, or even have negative social impacts, which brings great challenges to the government management. Data from the mass media which reveal implicit, previously unknown, and potentially valuable information, can effectively help us to understand the evolution law of public opinion, and provide a useful reference for rumor intervention. Based on the Dynamic Network Analysis method, this paper uses ORA software to mine characteristics of public opinion information, opinion topics, and public opinion agents through a series of indicators, and quantitatively analyzed the relationships between them. The results show that through the analysis of the 8 indexes associating with opinion data mining, we can have a basic understanding of the public opinion characteristics of an opinion event, such as who is important in the opinion spreading process, the information grasping condition, and the opinion topics release situation.

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

PubMed

Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2010-02-01

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel.

PubMed

Döhner, Hartmut; Estey, Elihu; Grimwade, David; Amadori, Sergio; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Büchner, Thomas; Dombret, Hervé; Ebert, Benjamin L; Fenaux, Pierre; Larson, Richard A; Levine, Ross L; Lo-Coco, Francesco; Naoe, Tomoki; Niederwieser, Dietger; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Sanz, Miguel; Sierra, Jorge; Tallman, Martin S; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Wei, Andrew H; Löwenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D

2017-01-26

The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease. © 2017 by The American Society of Hematology.

Value-Added Models: What the Experts Say

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amrein-Beardsley, Audrey; Pivovarova, Margarita; Geiger, Tray J.

2016-01-01

Being an expert involves explaining how things are supposed to work, and, perhaps more important, why things might not work as supposed. In this study, researchers surveyed scholars with expertise in value-added models (VAMs) to solicit their opinions about the uses and potential of VAMs for teacher-level accountability purposes (for example, in…

Emergence of Opinion Leaders Based on Agent Model and Its Impact to Stock Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misawa, Tadanobu; Suzuki, Kyoko; Okano, Yoshitaka; Shimokawa, Tetsuya

Recently, we can be able to get a lot of information easily because information technology has been developed. Therefore, it is thought that the impact to a society by communication of information such as word of mouth has been growing. In this paper, we propose a model of emergence of opinion leader based on word of mouth in artificial stock market. Moreover, the process of emergence of opinion leader and impact to stock prices by opinion leader are verified by simulation.

Expert scientific judgment and cancer risk assessment: a pilot study of pharmacokinetic data.

PubMed

Hawkins, N C; Graham, J D

1988-12-01

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.

Consensus statement: appropriate consumer education and communication programs for weight- loss agents in Asia.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Pheng; Chui, William C; Lo, Kwok Wing; Huang, Kuo-Chin; Leyesa, Normita D; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Mirasol, Roberto C; Robles, Yolanda R; Tey, Beng Hea; Paraidathathu, Thomas

2012-07-01

The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity worldwide demands increased efforts in the prevention and management of obesity. This article aims to present consensus statements promoting appropriate consumer education and communication programs for weight-loss agents in Asia. Panel members from various disciplines developed consensus statements based on an expert meeting on the benefits of consumer education and communication programs for over-the-counter weight-loss agents. Key opinion leaders discussed relevant data that served as the basis of the recommendations. Obesity is a growing epidemic in Asia, turning the region into a potential market for weight-loss products and services. Current trends in direct-to-consumer advertising demonstrate the pervasiveness of false representations lacking adequate substantiation. Relevant issues and recommendations were established. Public education on weight management is a shared responsibility; there is a need to raise public awareness of obesity and its health-related consequences. Advertising guidelines should ensure responsible direct-to-consumer advertising of weight-loss agents.

[Recommendations for terminating child custody--reasons and grounds in 30 expert decisions].

PubMed

Klosinski, G; Karle, M

1996-11-01

In a retrospective analysis 30 expert opinions on the right of visitation, which recommend the exclusion of this right for the non-custodial parent, are evaluated. These cases represent 23% of the expert opinions concerning the right of visitation that have been given by the department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry of the University of Tübingen between 1991 and 1994. Focusing on the decisive argument for the expert to exclude the right of visitation, it became apparent that in 40% of the cases the will of the child was the determining factor, followed by sustained tension between the parents in 33% of the cases. Emotional neglect, (continuous) abuse and maltreatment (12%) as well as offences against the clause of good behaviour (Wohlverhaltensklausel) were of significant smaller influence on the decision. And although 61% of the children have been classified as psychological disturbed, only in 5% of the cases this diagnosis was of importance.

Are opinions based on science: modelling social response to scientific facts.

PubMed

Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K; Barrio, Rafael A

2012-01-01

As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus.

Opinion Dynamics with Disagreement and Modulated Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sîrbu, Alina; Loreto, Vittorio; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca

2013-04-01

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents get closer. Only rarely the possibility of explicit disagreement has been taken into account (i.e., the possibility for a repulsive interaction among individuals' opinions), and mostly for discrete or 1-dimensional opinions, through the introduction of additional model parameters. Here we introduce a new model of opinion formation, which focuses on the interplay between the possibility of explicit disagreement, modulated in a self-consistent way by the existing opinions' overlaps between the interacting individuals, and the effect of external information on the system. Opinions are modelled as a vector of continuous variables related to multiple possible choices for an issue. Information can be modulated to account for promoting multiple possible choices. Numerical results show that extreme information results in segregation and has a limited effect on the population, while milder messages have better success and a cohesion effect. Additionally, the initial condition plays an important role, with the population forming one or multiple clusters based on the initial average similarity between individuals, with a transition point depending on the number of opinion choices.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

PubMed

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

PubMed

Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

2001-05-01

In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

Contemporary management of paraesophaegeal hernias: establishing a European expert consensus.

PubMed

Bonrath, E M; Grantcharov, T P

2015-08-01

The surgical treatment of paraesophageal hernias remains a challenge due to the lack of consensus regarding principles of operative treatment. The objectives of this study were to achieve consensus on key topics through expert opinion using a Delphi methodology. A Delphi survey combined with a face-to-face meeting was conducted. A panel of European experts in foregut surgery from high-volume centres generated items in the first survey round. In subsequent rounds, the panel rated agreement with statements on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Internal consistency (consensus) was predefined as Cronbach's α > .80. Items that >70 % of the panel either rated as irrelevant/unimportant, or relevant/important were selected as consensus items, while topics that did not reach this cut-off were termed "undecided/controversial". Three survey rounds were completed: 19 experts from 10 countries completed round one, 18 continued through rounds two and three. Internal consistency was high in rounds two and three (α > .90). Fifty-eight additional/revised items derived from comments and free-text entries were included in round three. In total, 118 items were rated; consensus agreement was achieved for 70 of these. Examples of consensus topics are the relevance of the disease profile for assessing surgical urgency and complexity, the role of clinical history as the mainstay of patient follow-up, indications for revision surgery, and training and credentialing recommendations. Topics with the most "undecided/controversial" items were follow-up, postoperative care and surgical technique. This Delphi study achieved expert consensus on key topics in the operative management of paraesophageal hernias, providing an overview of the current opinion among European foregut surgeons. Moreover, areas with substantial variability in opinions were identified reflecting the current lack of empirical evidence and opportunities for future research.

Issues and controversies of hepatocellular carcinoma-targeted therapy clinical trials in Asia: experts' opinion.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Jer; Furuse, Junji; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Hsu, Chiun; Lim, Ho-Yeong; Moon, Hanlim; Qin, Shukui; Ye, Sheng-Long; Yeoh, Ee-Min; Yeo, Winnie

2010-11-01

Asia has a disproportionate share of the world's burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the highly regarded clinical practice guidelines and recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials for HCC largely reflect Western practice. In order to design mutually beneficial international clinical trials of promising targeted therapies, it is imperative to understand how the aetiology, staging and treatment of HCC differ between Asian and Western countries. Our group, comprising experts in oncology and hepatology from countries that constitute the Eastern Asian region, convened to compare and contrast our current practices, evaluate potential compliance with the clinical trial recommendations, and offer suggestions for modifications that would enhance international collaboration. Here, we describe the results of our discussions, including recommendations for appropriate patient stratification based on potentially important differences in HCC aetiology, identification of practices that may confound interpretation of clinical trial outcomes (traditional Chinese medicine; antivirals that target hepatitis B virus; heterogeneous embolization procedures), suggestions for utilizing a common staging system in study protocols, recognition that sorafenib usage is limited by financial constraints and potentially increased toxicity in Asian patients, and expansion of patient populations that should be eligible for initial clinical trials with new agents. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual’s agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents’ persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

Expert Systems for Civilian Personnel Administration,

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

Test results of demonstration module vs. human classifier 2. Summary of data concerning Army experts 2 The findings, recommendations, and opinions...to the field of personnel administration. This report is the results of my investigation. . There are many who deserve thanks for assistance and...prompts the doctor for information about the patient, results of tests conducted on specimens from the patient, and observations made of r 3 "I the

Impact of contrarians and intransigents in a kinetic model of opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno; Blanco, Victor H.; Anteneodo, Celia

2014-01-01

In this work we study opinion formation on a fully connected population participating of a public debate with two distinct choices, where the agents may adopt three different attitudes (favorable to either one choice or to the other, or undecided). The interactions between agents occur by pairs and are competitive, with couplings that are either negative with probability p or positive with probability 1-p. This bimodal probability distribution of couplings produces a behavior similar to the one resulting from the introduction of Galam's contrarians in the population. In addition, we consider that a fraction d of the individuals are intransigent, that is, reluctant to change their opinions. The consequences of the presence of contrarians and intransigents are studied by means of computer simulations. Our results suggest that the presence of inflexible agents affects the critical behavior of the system, causing either the shift of the critical point or the suppression of the ordering phase transition, depending on the groups of opinions to which the intransigents belong. We also discuss the relevance of the model for real social systems.

On deception detection in multi-agent systems and deception intent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Li, Deqing; Yuan, Xiuqing

2008-04-01

Deception detection plays an important role in the military decision-making process, but detecting deception is a challenging task. The deception planning process involves a number of human factors. It is intent-driven where intentions are usually hidden or not easily observable. As a result, in order to detect deception, any adversary model must have the capability to capture the adversary's intent. This paper discusses deception detection in multi-agent systems and in adversary modeling. We examined psychological and cognitive science research on deception and implemented various theories of deception within our approach. First, in multi-agent expert systems, one detection method uses correlations between agents to predict reasonable opinions/responses of other agents (Santos & Johnson, 2004). We further explore this idea and present studies that show the impact of different factors on detection success rate. Second, from adversary modeling, our detection method focuses on inferring adversary intent. By combining deception "branches" with intent inference models, we can estimate an adversary's deceptive activities and at the same time enhance intent inference. Two major kinds of deceptions are developed in this approach in different fashions. Simulative deception attempts to find inconsistency in observables, while dissimulative deception emphasizes the inference of enemy intentions.

A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

PubMed

Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

2014-01-01

In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline.

Ask the experts how to treat individuals with spatial neglect: a survey study.

PubMed

Chen, Peii; Pitteri, Marco; Gillen, Glen; Ayyala, Harsha

2017-07-11

Spatial neglect (SN) impedes rehabilitation success and leaves long-term consequences. We asked experts to provide their opinions in addressing SN by scenario (ideal vs. reality) and by recovery phase (earliest, acute, subacute, and chronic). Experts were individuals who have assessed or treated patients with SN clinically. This study was conducted using an anonymous survey on the Internet with 189 responders over 3 months. Located in 23 different countries, 127 experts of seven disciplines were included (occupational therapy, physical therapy, nursing, speech and language pathology or therapy, neurology, physical medicine and rehabilitation, and psychology or neuropsychology). Comparing the two scenarios, more treatments were selected in the ideal than in the reality scenario for all recovery phases except for the chronic phase. In both scenarios, (1) more treatments were selected in acute and subacute phases than in earliest or chronic phases, (2) less experienced experts selected diverse treatment options more often, and (3) highly experienced experts were more likely to provide their reasons of treatment selection, suggestions of treatment delivery methods, and other insights. Finally, 83.7% reported obstacles in treating SN. Experts' treatment selections are consistent with current evidence and practice guidelines. Recognizing the limitation of evidence, their opinions may help generate ideas in various topics (e.g., dosing, integrative intervention, and treatment implementation) to be examined in future studies. Implications for Rehabilitation Clinicians with experience in treating people with spatial neglect (i.e., experts as defined in the present study) recognized the limitation of evidence but nonetheless suggested specific treatments by recovery phase. In both the reality and ideal scenarios, experts included visual scanning, active limb activation, and sustained attention training in the top-five selections. Prism adaptation was in the top

Interplay between social debate and propaganda in an opinion formation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimenez, M. C.; Revelli, J. A.; Lama, M. S. de la; Lopez, J. M.; Wio, H. S.

2013-01-01

We introduce a simple model of opinion dynamics in which a two-state agent modified Sznajd model evolves due to the simultaneous action of stochastic driving and a periodic signal. The stochastic effect mimics a social temperature, so the agents may adopt decisions in support for or against some opinion or position, according to a modified Sznajd rule with a varying probability. The external force represents a simplified picture by which society feels the influence of the external effects of propaganda. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we have shown the dynamical interplay between the social condition or mood and the external influence, finding a stochastic resonance-like phenomenon when we depict the noise-to-signal ratio as a function of the social temperature. In addition, we have also studied the effects of the system size and the external signal strength on the opinion formation dynamics.

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial.

PubMed

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-08-01

The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient's outcome, and so the data are 'missing at random' . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in these elicited values. The missing at

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial

PubMed Central

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-01-01

Background/aims: The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient’s outcome, and so the data are ‘missing at random’ . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. Methods: We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. Results: A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in

Seeking better topical delivery technologies of moisturizing agents for enhanced skin moisturization.

PubMed

Kim, Hyeongmin; Kim, Jeong Tae; Barua, Sonia; Yoo, Seung-Yup; Hong, Seong-Chul; Lee, Kyung Bin; Lee, Jaehwi

2018-01-01

An adequate hydration level is essential to maintain epidermal barrier functions and normal physiological activities of skin tissues. Diverse moisturizing agents and pharmaceutical formulations for dermal deliveries have thus extensively been investigated. This review comprehensively discusses scientific outcomes of moisturizing agents and pharmaceutical vehicles for skin moisturization, thereby providing insight into designing innovative pharmaceutical formulations for effective skin moisturization. Areas covered: We discussed the functions of various moisturizing agents ranging from conventional creams to novel moisturizers which has recently been explored. In addition, novel pharmaceutical formulations for efficient dermal delivery of the moisturizers, in particular, nanocarriers, were discussed along with their uses in commercial products. Expert opinion: Although various moisturizing agents have demonstrated their promising effects, exploitation of pharmaceutical formulations for their dermal delivery have been limited to few commonly used moisturizing agents. Thus, combinatorial investigation of novel moisturizers and pharmaceutical vehicles should be further conducted. As a new concept for improving skin moisturization, skin regeneration technologies using therapeutic cells have recently shown great promise for skin moisturization, but major challenges remain, such as efficient delivery and prolonged survival of such cells. Thus, novel approaches for improving skin moisturization require continuous efforts of pharmaceutical scientists to address the remaining problems.

Are Opinions Based on Science: Modelling Social Response to Scientific Facts

PubMed Central

Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K.; Barrio, Rafael A.

2012-01-01

As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus. PMID:22905117

Non-consensus opinion model with a neutral view on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Zihao; Dong, Gaogao; Du, Ruijin; Ma, Jing

2016-05-01

A nonconsensus opinion (NCO) model was introduced recently, which allows the stable coexistence of minority and majority opinions. However, due ​to disparities in the knowledge, experiences, and personality or self-protection of agents, they often remain ​neutral when faced with some opinions in real scenarios. ​To address this issue, we propose a general non-consensus opinion model with neutral view (NCON) ​and we define the dynamic opinion ​change process. We applied the NCON model to different topological networks and studied the formation of opinion clusters. In the case of random graphs, random regular networks, and scale-free (SF) networks, we found that the system moved from a continuous phase transition to a discontinuous phase transition as the connectivity density and exponent of the SF network λ ​decreased and increased in the steady state, respectively. Moreover, the initial proportions of neutral opinions were found to have little effect on the proportional structure of opinions at the steady state. These results suggest that the majority choice between positive and negative opinions depends on the initial proportion of each opinion. The NCON model may have potential applications for decision makers.

Pattern Selection and Super-Patterns in Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Naim, Eli; Scheel, Arnd

We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. The spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children.

PubMed

Lança, Carla

2013-09-01

Screening programs to detect visual abnormalities in children vary among countries. The aim of this study is to describe experts' perception of best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. A qualitative focus group technique was applied during the Portuguese national orthoptic congress to obtain the perception of an expert panel of 5 orthoptists and 2 ophthalmologists with experience in visual screening for children (mean age 53.43 years, SD ± 9.40). The panel received in advance a script with the description of three tuning competencies dimensions (instrumental, systemic, and interpersonal) for visual screening. The session was recorded in video and audio. Qualitative data were analyzed using a categorical technique. According to experts' views, six tests (35.29%) have to be included in a visual screening: distance visual acuity test, cover test, bi-prism or 4/6(Δ) prism, fusion, ocular movements, and refraction. Screening should be performed according to the child age before and after 3 years of age (17.65%). The expert panel highlighted the influence of the professional experience in the application of a screening protocol (23.53%). They also showed concern about the false negatives control (23.53%). Instrumental competencies were the most cited (54.09%), followed by interpersonal (29.51%) and systemic (16.4%). Orthoptists should have professional experience before starting to apply a screening protocol. False negative results are a concern that has to be more thoroughly investigated. The proposed framework focuses on core competencies highlighted by the expert panel. Competencies programs could be important do develop better screening programs.

Bias, belief, and consensus: Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg J.

2016-11-01

With the advent of online networks, societies have become substantially more interconnected with individual members able to easily both maintain and modify their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this bias affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex, fluctuating network with stochastic rewiring and we analyze these dynamics in the mean-field limit of large networks and fast link rewiring. We show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions and stabilizes the consensus state. We further show that bias can have an unusual, nonmonotonic effect on the time to consensus and this suggests a novel avenue for large-scale opinion manipulation.

Bias, belief, and consensus: Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks.

PubMed

Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg J

2016-11-01

With the advent of online networks, societies have become substantially more interconnected with individual members able to easily both maintain and modify their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this bias affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex, fluctuating network with stochastic rewiring and we analyze these dynamics in the mean-field limit of large networks and fast link rewiring. We show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions and stabilizes the consensus state. We further show that bias can have an unusual, nonmonotonic effect on the time to consensus and this suggests a novel avenue for large-scale opinion manipulation.

Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

PubMed

Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

1995-02-01

Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishi, Ryosuke; Masuda, Naoki

2013-06-01

We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ.0033-553310.1162/003355399555945 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions.

Management of Clostridium difficile Infection in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Expert Review from the Clinical Practice Updates Committee of the AGA Institute.

PubMed

Khanna, Sahil; Shin, Andrea; Kelly, Ciarán P

2017-02-01

The purpose of this expert review is to synthesize the existing evidence on the management of Clostridium difficile infection in patients with underlying inflammatory bowel disease. The evidence reviewed in this article is a summation of relevant scientific publications, expert opinion statements, and current practice guidelines. This review is a summary of expert opinion in the field without a formal systematic review of evidence. Best Practice Advice 1: Clinicians should test patients who present with a flare of underlying inflammatory bowel disease for Clostridium difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 2: Clinicians should screen for recurrent C difficile infection if diarrhea or other symptoms of colitis persist or return after antibiotic treatment for C difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 3: Clinicians should consider treating C difficile infection in inflammatory bowel disease patients with vancomycin instead of metronidazole. Best Practice Advice 4: Clinicians strongly should consider hospitalization for close monitoring and aggressive management for inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection who have profuse diarrhea, severe abdominal pain, a markedly increased peripheral blood leukocyte count, or other evidence of sepsis. Best Practice Advice 5: Clinicians may postpone escalation of steroids and other immunosuppression agents during acute C difficile infection until therapy for C difficile infection has been initiated. However, the decision to withhold or continue immunosuppression in inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection should be individualized because there is insufficient existing robust literature on which to develop firm recommendations. Best Practice Advice 6: Clinicians should offer a referral for fecal microbiota transplantation to inflammatory bowel disease patients with recurrent C difficile infection. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

2013-08-01

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts ( N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

Updated clinical indications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe aortic stenosis: expert opinion of the Italian Society of Cardiology and GISE.

PubMed

Indolfi, Ciro; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Berti, Sergio; Golino, Paolo; Esposito, Giovanni; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Petronio, Sonia; Tamburino, Corrado; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Ussia, Gianpaolo; Vassanelli, Corrado; Spaccarotella, Carmen; Violini, Roberto; Mercuro, Giuseppe; Romeo, Francesco

2018-05-01

: The introduction of percutaneous treatment of severe aortic stenosis with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains one of the greatest achievements of interventional cardiology. In fact, TAVI emerged as a better option than either medical therapy or balloon aortic valvuloplasty for patients who cannot undergo surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or are at high surgical risk. Recently, increased operator experience and improved device systems have led to a worldwide trend toward the extension of TAVI to low-risk or intermediate-risk patients. In this expert opinion paper, we first discuss the basic pathophysiology of aortic stenosis in different settings then the key results of recent clinical investigations on TAVI in intermediate-risk aortic stenosis patients are summarized. Particular emphasis is placed on the results of the nordic aortic valve intervention, placement of aortic transcatheter valves (PARTNER) 2 and Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Randomized trials. The PARTNER 2 was the first large randomized trial that evaluated the outcome of TAVI in patients at intermediate risk. The PARTNER 2 data demonstrated that TAVI is a feasible and reasonable alternative to surgery in intermediate-risk patients (Society of Thoracic Surgeons 4-8%), especially if they are elderly or frail. There was a significant interaction between TAVI approach and mortality, with transfemoral TAVI showing superiority over SAVR. Moreover, we examine the complementary results of the recently concluded Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation trial. This prospective randomized trial demonstrated that TAVI is comparable with surgery (primary end point 12.6% in the TAVI group vs. 14.0% in the SAVR group) in severe aortic stenosis patients deemed to be at intermediate risk. We review the most relevant clinical evidence deriving from nonrandomized studies and meta-analyses. Altogether, clinical outcome available data

Complex fuzzy soft expert sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvachandran, Ganeshsree; Hafeed, Nisren A.; Salleh, Abdul Razak

2017-04-01

Complex fuzzy sets and its accompanying theory although at its infancy, has proven to be superior to classical type-1 fuzzy sets, due its ability in representing time-periodic problem parameters and capturing the seasonality of the fuzziness that exists in the elements of a set. These are important characteristics that are pervasive in most real world problems. However, there are two major problems that are inherent in complex fuzzy sets: it lacks a sufficient parameterization tool and it does not have a mechanism to validate the values assigned to the membership functions of the elements in a set. To overcome these problems, we propose the notion of complex fuzzy soft expert sets which is a hybrid model of complex fuzzy sets and soft expert sets. This model incorporates the advantages of complex fuzzy sets and soft sets, besides having the added advantage of allowing the users to know the opinion of all the experts in a single model without the need for any additional cumbersome operations. As such, this model effectively improves the accuracy of representation of problem parameters that are periodic in nature, besides having a higher level of computational efficiency compared to similar models in literature.

Role of noise and agents’ convictions on opinion spreading in a three-state voter-like model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno

2013-07-01

In this work we study opinion formation in a voter-like model defined on a square lattice of linear size L. The agents may be in three different states, representing any public debate with three choices (yes, no, undecided). We consider heterogeneous agents that have different convictions about their opinions. These convictions limit the capacity of persuasion of the individuals during the interactions. Moreover, there is a noise p that represents the probability of an individual spontaneously changing his opinion to the undecided state. Our simulations suggest that the system reaches stationary states for all values of p, with consensus states occurring only for the noiseless case p = 0. In this case, the relaxation times are distributed according to a log-normal function, with the average value τ growing with the lattice size as τ ∼ Lα, where α ≈ 0.9. We found a threshold value p* ≈ 0.9 above which the stationary fraction of undecided agents is greater than the fraction of decided ones. We also study the consequences of the presence of external effects in the system, which models the influence of mass media on opinion formation.

The safety of antiangiogenic agents and PARP inhibitors in platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Lorusso, Domenica; Fontanella, Caterina; Maltese, Giuseppa; Lepori, Stefano; Tripodi, Elisa; Bogani, Giorgio; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2017-06-01

Recurrence is a common event in endothelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients, and the choice of the most appropriate treatment is driven by the platinum-free interval, molecular characteristics of the disease such as BRCA mutational status, previous treatments and toxicity. Areas covered: This review focuses on the main hematologic and non-hematologic toxicities correlated with the use of licensed antiangiogenic agents and PARP inhibitors in recurrent platinum-sensitive EOC, providing recommendations for their management. Expert opinion: The clinical research over the next years will be focused on a more precise characterization of molecular pathways underlying tumorigenesis of the five ovarian tumors, to improve the decision-making process in these rare diseases. For this purpose, new study designs and international collaborations will become mandatory. Immunotherapy, antiangiogenic agents and PARP inhibitors will be combined to build a treatment strategy algorithm which will allow patients to receive all the available treatment option, in the more appropriate sequence.

Functioning and disability in autism spectrum disorder: A worldwide survey of experts

PubMed Central

de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; de Vries, Petrus; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Almodayfer, Omar; Shulman, Cory; Tonge, Bruce; Wong, Virginia V.C.N.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

2016-01-01

Objective: This study is the second of four to prepare International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF; and Children and Youth version, ICF(‐CY)) Core Sets for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).The objective of this study was to survey the opinions and experiences of international experts on functioning and disability in ASD. Methods: Using a protocol stipulated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and monitored by the ICF Research Branch, an email‐based questionnaire was circulated worldwide among ASD experts, and meaningful functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses. These concepts were then linked to the ICF(‐CY) by two independent researchers using a standardized linking procedure. Results: N = 225 experts from 10 different disciplines and all six WHO‐regions completed the survey. Meaningful concepts from the responses were linked to 210 ICF(‐CY) categories. Of these, 103 categories were considered most relevant to ASD (i.e., identified by at least 5% of the experts), of which 37 were related to Activities and Participation, 35 to Body functions, 22 to Environmental factors, and 9 to Body structures. A variety of personal characteristics and ASD‐related functioning skills were provided by experts, including honesty, loyalty, attention to detail and creative talents. Reported gender differences in ASD comprised more externalizing behaviors among males and more internalizing behaviors in females. Conclusion: The ICF(‐CY) categories derived from international expert opinions indicate that the impact of ASD on functioning extends far beyond core symptom domains. Autism Res 2016, 9: 959–969. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:26749373

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas.

PubMed

Askitas, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of "birds of a feather" to "flock together". The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions.

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of “birds of a feather” to “flock together”. The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions. PMID:28829802

The expert consensus guideline series. Optimizing pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders. Introduction: methods, commentary, and summary.

PubMed

Kane, John M; Leucht, Stefan; Carpenter, Daniel; Docherty, John P

2003-01-01

A growing number of atypical antipsychotics are available for clinicians to choose from in the treatment of psychotic disorders. However, a number of important questions concerning medication selection, dosing and dose equivalence, and the management of inadequate response, compliance problems, and relapse have not been adequately addressed by clinical trials. To aid clinical decision-making, a consensus survey of expert opinion on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders was undertaken to address questions not definitively answered in the research literature. Based on a literature review, a written survey was developed with 60 questions and 994 options. Approximately half of the options were scored using a modified version of the RAND 9-point scale for rating the appropriateness of medical decisions. For the other options, the experts were asked to write in answers (e.g., average doses) or check a box to indicate their preferred answer. The survey was sent to 50 national experts on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders, 47 (94%) of whom completed it. In analyzing the responses to items rated on the 9-point scale, consensus on each option was defined as a non random distribution of scores by chi-square "goodness-of-fit"test. We assigned a categorical rank (first line/preferred choice,second line/alternate choice, third line/usually inappropriate) to each option based on the 95% confidence interval around the mean rating. Guideline tables indicating preferred treatment strategies were then developed for key clinical situations. The expert panel reached consensus on 88% of the options rated on the 9-point scale. The experts overwhelmingly endorsed the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of psychotic disorders. Risperidone was the top choice for first-episode and multi-episode patients, with the other newer atypicals rated first line or high second line depending on the clinical situation. Clozapine and a long-acting injectable atypical

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

The weighted priors approach for combining expert opinions in logistic regression experiments

DOE PAGES

Quinlan, Kevin R.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Myers, Kary L.

2017-04-24

When modeling the reliability of a system or component, it is not uncommon for more than one expert to provide very different prior estimates of the expected reliability as a function of an explanatory variable such as age or temperature. Our goal in this paper is to incorporate all information from the experts when choosing a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been shown to be very successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. We use this approach to develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially non-overlapping priors under consideration.more » While multiple priors have been used for analysis in the past, they have never been used in a design context. The Weighted Priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other reasonable design choices. Finally, we illustrate the method through multiple scenarios and a motivating example. Additional figures for this article are available in the online supplementary information.« less

The weighted priors approach for combining expert opinions in logistic regression experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinlan, Kevin R.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Myers, Kary L.

When modeling the reliability of a system or component, it is not uncommon for more than one expert to provide very different prior estimates of the expected reliability as a function of an explanatory variable such as age or temperature. Our goal in this paper is to incorporate all information from the experts when choosing a design about which units to test. Bayesian design of experiments has been shown to be very successful for generalized linear models, including logistic regression models. We use this approach to develop methodology for the case where there are several potentially non-overlapping priors under consideration.more » While multiple priors have been used for analysis in the past, they have never been used in a design context. The Weighted Priors method performs well for a broad range of true underlying model parameter choices and is more robust when compared to other reasonable design choices. Finally, we illustrate the method through multiple scenarios and a motivating example. Additional figures for this article are available in the online supplementary information.« less

Neuropsychologist experts and neurolaw: cases, controversies, and admissibility challenges.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Paul M

2013-01-01

Clinical neuropsychologists engage increasingly in forensic consulting activities because such expert opinions are generally relevant, reliable and helpful in resolving certain legal claims, especially those related to traumatic brain injury. Consequently, practitioners of law, medicine and psychology would benefit from understanding the nature of neuropsychological evidence, the standards for its admissibility, and its expanding role in neurolaw. This article reviews important evidentiary rules regulating relevance, preliminary questions, and expert testimony, while tracing federal key court decisions and progeny. Civil and criminal cases are detailed to illustrate the application of these rules and case law to neuropsychological evidence, with suggestions for overcoming motions to exclude such evidence. Expert neuropsychologists have a role in forensic consultation on brain trauma cases, even as the interdisciplinary dialog and understanding among law, medicine, and psychology continues to expand. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling

PubMed Central

Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H.

2015-01-01

Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject’s confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions. PMID:26517825

Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

PubMed

Randolph, Sarah E

2013-12-01

Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.

[Expert assessment of hearing loss within the scope of the social compensation law and the law regarding severely handicapped patients].

PubMed

Plath, P

1992-10-01

Special problems are described concerning expert opinions on hearing disability and hearing loss with regard to the German Social Rights for Compensation and the laws for handicapped persons. In some aspects there are similarities to the rights of accident insurance, but disability programs question only the degree of handicap present and not the source of the hearing loss. The expert opinion on the subject's ability to work in his or any other profession must only determine the patient's ability to hear and the tasks needed to fulfill the profession. Special attention is given to the problems arising from tinnitus.

Dynamical systems approach to the study of a sociophysics agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2011-03-01

The Sznajd model is a Potts-like model that has been studied in the context of sociophysics [1,2] (where spins are interpreted as opinions). In a recent work [3], we generalized the Sznajd model to include assymetric interactions between the spins (interpreted as biases towards opinions) and used dynamical systems techniques to tackle its mean-field version, given by the flow: ησ = ∑ σ' = 1Mησησ'(ησρσ'→σ-σ'ρσ→σ'). Where hs is the proportion of agents with opinion (spin) σ', M is the number of opinions and σ'→σ' is the probability weight for an agent with opinion σ being convinced by another agent with opinion σ'. We made Monte Carlo simulations of the model in a complex network (using Barabási-Albert networks [4]) and they displayed the same attractors than the mean-field. Using linear stability analysis, we were able to determine the mean-field attractor structure analytically and to show that it has connections with well known graph theory problems (maximal independent sets and positive fluxes in directed graphs). Our dynamical systems approach is quite simple and can be used also in other models, like the voter model.

Effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus in opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Changwei; Dai, Qionglin; Han, Wenchen; Feng, Yuee; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong

2018-06-01

The Deffuant model has attracted much attention in the study of opinion dynamics. Here, we propose a modified version by introducing into the model a heterogeneous convergence rate which is dependent on the opinion difference between interacting agents and a tunable parameter κ. We study the effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus by investigating the probability of complete consensus, the size of the largest opinion cluster, the number of opinion clusters, and the relaxation time. We find that the decrease of the convergence rate is favorable to decreasing the confidence threshold for the population to always reach complete consensus, and there exists optimal κ resulting in the minimal bounded confidence threshold. Moreover, we find that there exists a window before the threshold of confidence in which complete consensus may be reached with a nonzero probability when κ is not too large. We also find that, within a certain confidence range, decreasing the convergence rate will reduce the relaxation time, which is somewhat counterintuitive.

The Hunt Opinion Model—An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

PubMed Central

Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

2016-01-01

We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: “snobs” and “followers” (or “opinion hunters”, hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model—quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf’s bifurcation. PMID:27835679

The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

PubMed

Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

2016-01-01

We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

PubMed

Blaser, Jeremie; Cornuz, Jacques

2015-04-15

In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. 40 Swiss experts from across the country. We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA

Treesearch

Sean N. Gordon; Gallo Kirsten

2011-01-01

Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a...

Small molecules as therapy for uveitis: a selected perspective of new and developing agents.

PubMed

Pleyer, Uwe; Algharably, Engi Abdel-Hady; Feist, Eugen; Kreutz, Reinhold

2017-09-01

Intraocular inflammation (uveitis) remains a significant burden of legal blindness. Because of its immune mediated and chronic recurrent nature, common therapy includes corticosteroids, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs and more recently biologics as immune modulatory agents. The purpose of this article is to identify the role of new treatment approaches focusing on small molecules as therapeutic option in uveitis. Areas covered: A MEDLINE database search was conducted through February 2017 using the terms 'uveitis' and 'small molecule'. To provide ongoing and future perspectives in treatment options, also clinical trials as registered at ClinicalTrials.gov were included. Both, results from experimental as well as clinical research in this field were included. Since this field is rapidly evolving, a selection of promising agents had to be made. Expert opinion: Small molecules may interfere at different steps of the inflammatory cascade and appear as an interesting option in the treatment algorithm of uveitis. Because of their highly targeted molecular effects and their favorable bioavailability with the potential of topical application small molecules hold great promise. Nevertheless, a careful evaluation of these agents has to be made, since current experience is almost exclusively based on experimental uveitis models and few registered trials.

Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuncay, Çağlar

Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

PubMed

Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

2014-12-01

It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

Role of chemotherapy and molecularly targeted agents in the treatment of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland.

PubMed

Le Tourneau, Christophe; Razak, Albiruni R A; Levy, Christine; Calugaru, Valentin; Galatoire, Olivier; Dendale, Rémi; Desjardins, Laurence; Gan, Hui K

2011-11-01

Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is the most common malignant epithelial cancer of the lacrimal gland. Despite a slow rate of growth, ACCs are ultimately associated with poor clinical outcome. Given the rarity of this disease, most recommendations regarding therapy are guided by expert opinion and retrospective data rather than level 1 evidence. Surgery and postoperative radiation therapy are commonly used as initial local treatment. In patients at high risk of recurrence, concomitant platinum-based chemotherapy may be added to postoperative radiotherapy in an attempt to enhance radio-sensitivity. While encouraging responses have been reported with intra-arterial neoadjuvant chemotherapy, this strategy is associated with substantial toxicity and should be considered investigational. For patients with metastatic disease not amenable to surgery or radiotherapy, chemotherapy may have a role based on its modest efficacy in non-lacrimal ACC. Similarly, molecular targeted agents may have a role, although the agents tested to date in non-lacrimal ACC have been disappointing. A better understanding of the biology of ACC will be crucial to the future success of developing targeted agents for this disease.

Modelling the public opinion transmission on social networks under opinion leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zuozhi; Li, Meng; Ji, Wanwan

2017-06-01

In this paper, based on Social Network Analysis (SNA), the social network model of opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission is explored. The hot event, A Female Driver Was Beaten Due To Lane Change, has characteristics of individual short-term and non-government intervention, which is used to data extraction, and formed of the network structure on opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission. And the evolution mechanism are analyzed in the three evolutionary situations. Opinion leaders influence micro-blogging public opinion on social network evolution model shows that this type of network public opinion transmission is largely constrained by opinion leaders, so the opinion leaders behavior supervising on the spread of this public opinion is pivotal, and which has a guiding significance.

THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

PubMed

Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

Expert Recommended Strategies for Classroom Management for Beginning Teachers Placed in Hard-to-Staff Schools in Urban School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexis, Chelly C.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to get the opinion of a panel of experts as to which classroom management strategies should be implemented in urban school district mentoring programs to help beginning teachers who are placed in hard-to-staff schools in Los Angeles County, California. Methodology: This Delphi study included 20 expert mentors…

Ultrasound-mediated ocular delivery of therapeutic agents: a review.

PubMed

Lafond, Maxime; Aptel, Florent; Mestas, Jean-Louis; Lafon, Cyril

2017-04-01

Due to numerous anatomical and physiological barriers, ocular drug delivery remains a major limitation in the treatment of diseases such as glaucoma, macular degeneration or inflammatory diseases. To date, only invasive approaches provide clinically effective results. Ultrasound can be defined as the propagation of a high-frequency sound wave exposing the propagation media to mechanical and thermal effects. Ultrasound has been proposed as a non-invasive physical agent for increasing therapeutic agent delivery in various fields of medicine. Areas covered: An update on recent advances in transscleral and transcorneal ultrasound-mediated drug delivery is presented. Efficient drug delivery is achieved in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo for various types of materials. Numerous studies indicate that efficacy is related to cavitation. Although slight reversible effects can be observed on the corneal epithelium, efficient drug delivery can be performed without causing damage to the cornea. Expert opinion: Recent developments prove the potential of ultrasound-mediated ocular drug delivery. Cavitation appears to be a preponderant mechanism, opening a way to treatment monitoring by cavitation measurement. Even if no clinical studies have yet been performed, the promising results summarized here are promoting developments toward clinical applications, particularly in assessing the safety of the technique.

Interacting opinion and disease dynamics in multiplex networks: Discontinuous phase transition and nonmonotonic consensus times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez-Rojas, Fátima; Vazquez, Federico

2017-05-01

Opinion formation and disease spreading are among the most studied dynamical processes on complex networks. In real societies, it is expected that these two processes depend on and affect each other. However, little is known about the effects of opinion dynamics over disease dynamics and vice versa, since most studies treat them separately. In this work we study the dynamics of the voter model for opinion formation intertwined with that of the contact process for disease spreading, in a population of agents that interact via two types of connections, social and contact. These two interacting dynamics take place on two layers of networks, coupled through a fraction q of links present in both networks. The probability that an agent updates its state depends on both the opinion and disease states of the interacting partner. We find that the opinion dynamics has striking consequences on the statistical properties of disease spreading. The most important is that the smooth (continuous) transition from a healthy to an endemic phase observed in the contact process, as the infection probability increases beyond a threshold, becomes abrupt (discontinuous) in the two-layer system. Therefore, disregarding the effects of social dynamics on epidemics propagation may lead to a misestimation of the real magnitude of the spreading. Also, an endemic-healthy discontinuous transition is found when the coupling q overcomes a threshold value. Furthermore, we show that the disease dynamics delays the opinion consensus, leading to a consensus time that varies nonmonotonically with q in a large range of the model's parameters. A mean-field approach reveals that the coupled dynamics of opinions and disease can be approximately described by the dynamics of the voter model decoupled from that of the contact process, with effective probabilities of opinion and disease transmission.

Co-Evolution of Opinion and Strategy in Persuasion Dynamics:. AN Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun; Li, Yong

In this paper, a new model of opinion formation within the framework of evolutionary game theory is presented. The model simulates strategic situations when people are in opinion discussion. Heterogeneous agents adjust their behaviors to the environment during discussions, and their interacting strategies evolve together with opinions. In the proposed game, we take into account payoff discount to join a discussion, and the situation that people might drop out of an unpromising game. Analytical and emulational results show that evolution of opinion and strategy always tend to converge, with utility threshold, memory length, and decision uncertainty parameters influencing the convergence time. The model displays different dynamical regimes when we set differently the rule when people are at a loss in strategy.

Opinions of University Music Teachers on the Musical Competencies Necessary for Primary Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Begic, Jasna Šulentic; Begic, Amir; Škojo, Tihana

2017-01-01

This paper describes the research conducted in the Republic of Croatia during the 2012/13 academic year. We have gathered opinions from experts, i.e. teaching methods teachers from seven faculties of teacher education, regarding the music teaching competencies necessary for primary education teachers teaching music in the first several grades of…

[Definition of endometriosis expert centres].

PubMed

Chanavaz-Lacheray, I; Darai, E; Descamps, P; Agostini, A; Poilblanc, M; Rousset, P; Bolze, P-A; Panel, P; Collinet, P; Hebert, T; Graesslin, O; Martigny, H; Brun, J-L; Dechaud, H; Mezan De Malartic, C; Piechon, L; Wattiez, A; Chapron, C; Golfier, F

2018-03-01

The Collège national des gynécologues obstétriciens français (CNGOF), in agreement with the Société de chirurgie gynécologique et pelvienne (SCGP), has set up a commission in 2017 to define endometriosis expert centres, with the aim of optimizing endometriosis care in France. The committee included members from university and general hospitals as well as private facilities, representing medical, surgical and radiological aspects of endometriosis care. Opinion of endometriosis patients' associations was obtained prior to writing this work. The final text was presented and unanimously validated by the members of the CNGOF Board of Directors at its meeting of October 13, 2017. Based on analysis of current management of endometriosis and the last ten years opportunities in France, the committee has been able to define the contours of endometriosis expert centres. The objectives, production specifications, mode of operation, missions and funding for these centres were described. The following missions have been specifically defined: territorial organization, global and referral care, communication and teaching as well as research and evaluation. Because of its daily impact for women and its economic burden in France, endometriosis justifies launching of expert centres throughout the country with formal accreditation by health authorities, ideally as part of the National Health Plan. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A DELPHI STUDY OF RISK FACTORS FOR ACHILLES TENDINOPATHY- OPINIONS OF WORLD TENDON EXPERTS

PubMed Central

Watson, Paul J.; Barry, Simon

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Achilles tendinopathy can be a debilitating chronic condition for both active and inactive individuals. The identification of risk facors is important both in preventing but also treating tendinopathy, many factors have been proposed but there is a lack of primary epidemiological data. The purpose of this study was to develop a statement of expert consensus on risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in active and sedentary patient populations to inform a primary epidemiological study. Study design Delphi study Methods and Measures An online Delphi study was completed inviting participation from world tendon experts. The consensus was developed using three rounds of the Delphi technique. The first round developed a complete list of potential risk factors, the second round refined this list but also separated the factors into two population groups – active/athletic and inactive/sedentary. The third round ranked this list in order of perceived importance. Results Forty-four experts were invited to participate, 16 participated in the first round (response rate 40%) and two dropped out in the second round (resulting in a response rate of 35%). A total of 27 intrinsic and eight extrinsic risk factors were identified during round one. During round two only 12 intrinsic and five extrinsic risk factors were identified as important in active/athletic tendinopathy while 14 intrinsic and three extrinsic factors were identified as important for inactive/sedentary tendinopathy. Conclusions Risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy were identified based on expert consensus, and these factors provide a basis for primary epidemiological studies. Plantarflexor strength was identified as the primary modifiable factor in the active/athletic group while systemic factors were identified as important in the inactive/sedentary group, many of the potential factors suggested for either group were non-modifiable. Non-modifiable factors include: previous tendinopathy

Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

2014-01-01

Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

Ask the experts.

PubMed

Pecoul, Bernard; Pollastri, Michael; McKerrow, James; Bueno-Calderon, Jose Maria

2012-07-01

The Uniting to Combat Neglected Tropical Diseases partners, including the US, UK, UAE and other national governments, along with 13 pharmaceutical industry businesses, the World Bank, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and other neglected tropical disease-endemic countries, announced that they are to join together to drive research and innovation for the treatment of neglected tropical diseases. The collaboration will see neglected tropical disease-endemic countries work alongside these organizations with the goal of fueling R&D of treatments for ten neglected tropical diseases in support of WHO's 2020 goals. Isaac Bruce, Commissioning Editor, spoke to four experts in the field from academia, not-for-profit organizations and the pharmaceutical industry, and asked their opinions on the partnerships announced and what the status of neglected tropical disease research will be at the end of this decade.

The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management - expert opinion.

PubMed

Kuna, Piotr; Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

2016-12-01

Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient's life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies.

The role of communication in breast cancer screening: a qualitative study with Australian experts.

PubMed

Parker, Lisa M; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy M

2015-10-19

One well-accepted strategy for optimising outcomes in mammographic breast cancer screening is to improve communication with women about screening. It is not always clear, however, what it is that communication should be expected to achieve, and why or how this is so. We investigated Australian experts' opinions on breast screening communication. Our research questions were: 1 What are the views of Australian experts about communicating with consumers on breast screening? 2 How do experts reason about this topic? We used a qualitative methodology, interviewing 33 breast screening experts across Australia with recognisable influence in the Australian mammographic breast cancer screening setting. We used purposive and theoretical sampling to identify experts from different professional roles (including clinicians, program managers, policy makers, advocates and researchers) with a range of opinions about communication in breast screening. Experts discussed the topic of communication with consumers by focusing on two main questions: how strongly to guide consumers' breast cancer screening choices, and what to communicate about overdiagnosis. Each expert adopted one of three approaches to consumer communication depending on their views about these topics. We labelled these approaches: Be screened; Be screened and here's why; Screening is available please consider whether it's right for you. There was a similar level of support for all three approaches. Experts' reasoning was grounded in how they conceived of and prioritised their underlying values including: delivering benefits, avoiding harms, delivering more benefits than harms, respecting autonomy and transparency. There is disagreement between experts regarding communication with breast screening consumers. Our study provides some insights into this persisting lack of consensus, highlighting the different meanings that experts give to values, and different ways that values are prioritised. We suggest that explicit

Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

2012-01-01

Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

Social power and opinion formation in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalili, Mahdi

2013-02-01

In this paper we investigate the effects of social power on the evolution of opinions in model networks as well as in a number of real social networks. A continuous opinion formation model is considered and the analysis is performed through numerical simulation. Social power is given to a proportion of agents selected either randomly or based on their degrees. As artificial network structures, we consider scale-free networks constructed through preferential attachment and Watts-Strogatz networks. Numerical simulations show that scale-free networks with degree-based social power on the hub nodes have an optimal case where the largest number of the nodes reaches a consensus. However, given power to a random selection of nodes could not improve consensus properties. Introducing social power in Watts-Strogatz networks could not significantly change the consensus profile.

The necessity of repeated assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records in medico-legal opinions.

PubMed

Borowska-Solonynko, A

The paper presents two case reports of living victims, in which imaging studies of the chest conducted at a medical facility were an essential part of the medico-legal opinion. The first case was that of a young male hospitalized due to CT evidence of bilateral rib fractions, who claimed to have been assaulted by police officers. The other case was that of a six week old baby hospitalized due to chest X-ray evidence of right hand side rib fractions. The chest X-ray was performed due to one bruise found on the baby's forehead and two small bruises on the back, which gave rise to suspicions of child abuse. In both cases, expert witnesses in radiology definitively excluded the presence of any fractures. These cases indicate that a new assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records is needed. Expert opinions based solely on the description of imaging studies may result in grave consequences.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

PubMed

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

An application of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to adolescent smoking initiation.

PubMed

Sun, Ruoyan; Mendez, David

2017-01-01

We investigated the impact of peers' opinions on the smoking initiation process among adolescents. We applied the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model to study how social interactions change adolescents' opinions and behaviors about smoking. Through agent-based modeling (ABM), we simulated a population of 2500 adolescents and compared smoking prevalence to data from 9 cohorts of adolescents in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from year 2001 till 2014. Our model adjusts well for NSDUH data according to pseudo R2 values, which are at least 96%. Optimal parameter values indicate that adolescents exhibit imitator characteristics with regard to smoking opinions. The imitator characteristics suggests that teenagers tend to update their opinions consistently according to what others do, and these opinions later translate into smoking behaviors. As a result, peer influence from social networks plays a big role in the smoking initiation process and should be an important driver in policy formulation.

The development of targeted new agents to improve the outcome for children with leukemia.

PubMed

Bautista, Francisco; Van der Lugt, Jasper; Kearns, Pamela R; Mussai, Francis J; Zwaan, C Michel; Moreno, Lucas

2016-11-01

Survival rates in pediatric leukemia have greatly improved in the last decades but still a substantial number of patients will relapse and die. New agents are necessary to overcome the limitations of conventional chemotherapy and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and to reduce their undesirable long-term toxicities. The identification of driving molecular alterations of leukemogenesis in subsets of patients will allow the incorporation of new-targeted therapies. Areas covered: In this article the authors present a detailed review of the most recent advances in targeted therapies for pediatric leukemias. A comprehensive description of the biological background, adult data and early clinical trials in pediatrics is provided. Expert opinion: Clinical trials are the way to evaluate new agents in pediatric cancer. The development of new drugs in pediatric leukemia must be preceded by a solid biological rationale. Agents in development exploit all possible vulnerabilities of leukemic cells. Drugs targeting cell surface antigens, intracellular signaling pathways and cell cycle inhibitors or epigenetic regulators are most prominent. Major advances have occurred thanks to new developments in engineering leading to optimized molecules such as anti-CD19 bi-specific T-cell engagers (e.g. blinatumomab) and antibody-drug conjugates. The integration of new-targeted therapies in pediatric chemotherapy-based regimens will lead to improved outcomes.

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

[The role of the physician in expert testimony leading to an arrest].

PubMed

Marek, Z; Baran, E

1989-01-01

The authors have offered several problems related to a topic of medical professional activities of physicians being in contact with the administration of justice. There are presented opinions based on existent regulations and experiences associated with juridical expert activities of the authors. These opinions are about two problems that, according to obtained data, are made of controversies which stand between first-aid or ambulance doctors and law officers. The first problem deals with differences of opinion on obligations of physicians to examine drunk patients and to meet the requirements to put them into a sober room or--if there are any for a temporary stay into a prison. There has been also stated an opinion that this activity of physicians is included in a normal range of their professional duties. The second matter is concerned with the correctness of physicians' proceedings dealing with individuals arrested by militia and giving medical evidences that faces a problem whether stay in prison can or cannot constitute a threat for their life or health. It's been also founded that--in those cases--a physician has to be called a medicolegal opinion. The professional obligations of physicians still don't include this function and therefore it has to be granted separately.

[Medico-legal opinion in establishing "exposure to direct danger of death or grave detriment to health"].

PubMed

Jurek, Tomasz; Maksymowicz, Krzysztof

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the problem of competence of the forensic expert opinions on the exposure to "direct danger of death or grave detriment to health". According to the analysis of judicial verdicts and the comments of lawyers "direct danger" depends closely on the probability, time and number of occurrences between the behavior of the perpetrator and the threatening act. The competence of the forensic expert does not allow for the legal qualification of the act but for the assessment of from the medicolegal point of view, defining the threat and possible outcomes in a descriptive fashion. The assessment of "direct danger" should be the result of close cooperation between the judicial representative and forensic expert.

The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures. [probabilistic failure models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

1975-01-01

The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

PubMed

Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

2016-04-01

While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

2017-10-01

The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

Clinical experience with drug delivery systems as tools to decrease the toxicity of anticancer chemotherapeutic agents.

PubMed

Maranhão, Raul C; Vital, Carolina G; Tavoni, Thauany M; Graziani, Silvia R

2017-10-01

The toxicity of chemotherapeutic agents, resulting from their low pharmacological index, introduces considerable discomfort and risk to cancer patients. Among several strategies to reduce the toxicity of chemotherapeutic agents, targeted drug delivery is the most promising one. Areas covered: Liposomes, micelles, albumin-based, polymeric, dendritic and lipid core nanoparticles have been used as carriers to concentrate anticancer drugs in neoplastic tissues, and clinical studies of those preparations are reviewed. In most clinical studies, drug delivery systems reduced drug toxicity. Lipid core nanoparticles (LDE) that bind to cell lipoprotein receptors have the ability to concentrate in neoplastic tissues and were the first artificial non-liposomal system shown in in vivo studies to possess targeting properties. The toxicity reduction achieved by LDE as vehicle of carmustine, etoposide and paclitaxel was singularly strong. Expert opinion: The reduced toxicity offered by drug delivery systems has expanded treatment population that may benefit from chemotherapy including feeble, overtreated and elderly patients that would otherwise be offered palliative therapy. Drug delivery systems may either prolong the duration of treatments or allow increases in drug dose.

Building an adaptive agent to monitor and repair the electrical power system of an orbital satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tecuci, Gheorghe; Hieb, Michael R.; Dybala, Tomasz

1995-01-01

Over several years we have developed a multistrategy apprenticeship learning methodology for building knowledge-based systems. Recently we have developed and applied our methodology to building intelligent agents. This methodology allows a subject matter expert to build an agent in the same way in which the expert would teach a human apprentice. The expert will give the agent specific examples of problems and solutions, explanations of these solutions, or supervise the agent as it solves new problems. During such interactions, the agent learns general rules and concepts, continuously extending and improving its knowledge base. In this paper we present initial results on applying this methodology to build an intelligent adaptive agent for monitoring and repair of the electrical power system of an orbital satellite, stressing the interaction with the expert during apprenticeship learning.

Drug-drug interactions as a result of co-administering Δ9-THC and CBD with other psychotropic agents.

PubMed

Rong, Carola; Carmona, Nicole E; Lee, Yena L; Ragguett, Renee-Marie; Pan, Zihang; Rosenblat, Joshua D; Subramaniapillai, Mehala; Shekotikhina, Margarita; Almatham, Fahad; Alageel, Asem; Mansur, Rodrigo; Ho, Roger C; McIntyre, Roger S

2018-01-01

To determine, via narrative, non-systematic review of pre-clinical and clinical studies, whether the effect of cannabis on hepatic biotransformation pathways would be predicted to result in clinically significant drug-drug interactions (DDIs) with commonly prescribed psychotropic agents. Areas covered: A non-systematic literature search was conducted using the following databases: PubMed, PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception to January 2017. The search term cannabis was cross-referenced with the terms drug interactions, cytochrome, cannabinoids, cannabidiol, and medical marijuana. Pharmacological, molecular, and physiologic studies evaluating the pharmacokinetics of Δ 9 -tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ 9 -THC) and cannabidiol (CBD), both in vitro and in vivo, were included. Bibliographies were also manually searched for additional citations that were relevant to the overarching aim of this paper. Expert opinion: Δ 9 -Tetrahydrocannabinol and CBD are substrates and inhibitors of cytochrome P450 enzymatic pathways relevant to the biotransformation of commonly prescribed psychotropic agents. The high frequency and increasing use of cannabis invites the need for healthcare providers to familiarize themselves with potential DDIs in persons receiving select psychotropic agents, and additionally consuming medical marijuana and/or recreational marijuana.

Quantitative Agent Based Model of User Behavior in an Internet Discussion Forum

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2013-01-01

The paper presents an agent based simulation of opinion evolution, based on a nonlinear emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) individual dynamics, to an actual Internet discussion forum. The goal is to reproduce the results of two-year long observations and analyses of the user communication behavior and of the expressed opinions and emotions, via simulations using an agent based model. The model allowed to derive various characteristics of the forum, including the distribution of user activity and popularity (outdegree and indegree), the distribution of length of dialogs between the participants, their political sympathies and the emotional content and purpose of the comments. The parameters used in the model have intuitive meanings, and can be translated into psychological observables. PMID:24324606

A Combinatorial Auction among Versatile Experts and Amateurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Takayuki; Yokoo, Makoto; Matsubara, Shigeo

Auctions have become an integral part of electronic commerce and a promising field for applying multi-agent technologies. Correctly judging the quality of auctioned goods is often difficult for amateurs, in particular, in Internet auctions. However, experts can correctly judge the quality of goods. In this situation, it is difficult to make experts tell the truth and attain an efficient allocation, since experts have a clear advantage over amateurs and they would not reveal their valuable information without some reward. In our previous work, we have succeeded in developing such auction protocols under the following two cases: (1) the case of a single-unit auction among experts and amateurs, and (2) the case of a combinatorial auction among single-skilled experts and amateurs. In this paper, we focus on versatile experts. Versatile experts have an interest in, and expert knowledge on the qualities of several goods. In the case of versatile experts, there would be several problems, e.g., free riding problems, if we simply extended the previous VCG-style auction protocol. Thus, in this paper, we employ PORF (price-oriented, rationing-free) protocol for designing our new protocol to realize a strategy-proof auction protocol for experts. In the protocol, the dominant strategy for experts is truth-telling. Also, for amateurs, truth-telling is the best response when two or more experts select the dominant strategy. Furthermore, the protocol is false-name-proof.

Expert opinions on optimal enforcement of minimum purchase age laws for tobacco.

PubMed

Levy, D T; Chaloupka, F; Slater, S

2000-05-01

A questionnaire on how youth access laws should be enforced was sent to 20 experts who had administered and/or evaluated a youth access enforcement program. Respondents agreed on the need for a high level of retail compliance, checkers representative of the community, checks at least twice per year, a graduated penalty structure with license revocation, and bans on self-service and vending machines. Respondents indicated the need for research on the effects of ID use, frequency of checks, penalty structures, and the effects on smoking rates of youth access policies alone and in conjunction with other tobacco control policies.

a New Method for Fmeca Based on Fuzzy Theory and Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byeon, Yoong-Tae; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.

2008-10-01

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectively. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering in deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

Expert opinion survey on the impacts of air pollutants on forests of the USA

Treesearch

J.M. Pye; J.E. de Steiguer; C. Love

1988-01-01

A panel of experts was surveyed to obtain five air pollutants (SO2 NO2, O3, H2SO4, and HNO3) on growth, mortality, and leaf area of forests of the continental U.S. for later input to economic analysis. Results from the first two of three...

Who are the opinion leaders? The physicians, pharmacists, patients, and direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

PubMed

Lee, Annisa Lai

2010-09-01

A popular perception holds that physicians prescribe requested drugs to patients influenced by mass mediated direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising. The phenomenon poses a serious challenge to the two-step flow model, which emphasizes the influence of opinion leaders on their followers and their legitimating power over the informing power of the mass media. This study investigates a 2002 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) survey and finds that patients searching for drug information through mass and hybrid media in newspapers and magazines' small print, the Internet, and toll-free numbers are more likely to seek information through interpersonal communication channels like health care providers. Patients using small print, toll-free numbers, one's own physician, and other physicians are associated with influencing their physicians with various drug-requesting behaviors. But physicians only prescribe requested drugs to patients who are influenced by other health care providers, such as pharmacists and other physicians, not the mass media. The influence of expert opinion leaders of drugs is so strong that the patients even would switch from their own unyielding physicians who do not prescribe drugs as advised by the pharmacists. Physicians and patients all are influenced more by other expert opinion leaders of drugs than by the mass media and therefore still uphold the basic tenet of the two-step model.

Professional opinion concerning the effectiveness of bracing relative to observation in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

PubMed

Dolan, Lori A; Donnelly, Melanie J; Spratt, Kevin F; Weinstein, Stuart L

2007-01-01

To determine if community equipoise exists concerning the effectiveness of bracing in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Bracing is the standard of care for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis despite the lack of strong reasearch evidence concerning its effectiveness. Thus, some researchers support the idea of a randomized trial, whereas others think that randomization in the face of a standard of care would be unethical. A random of Scoliosis Research Society and Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America members were asked to consider 12 clinical profiles and to give their opinion concerning the radiographic outcomes after observation and bracing. An expert panel was created from the respondents. They expressed a wide array of opinions concerning the percentage of patients within each scenario who would benefit from bracing. Agreement was noted concerning the risk due to bracing for post-menarchal patients only. : This study found a high degree of variability in opinion among clinicians concerning the effectiveness of bracing, suggesting that a randomized trial of bracing would be ethical.

Dynamical systems approach to the study of a sociophysics agent-based model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timpanaro, Andre M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2011-03-24

The Sznajd model is a Potts-like model that has been studied in the context of sociophysics [1,2](where spins are interpreted as opinions). In a recent work [3], we generalized the Sznajd model to include assymetric interactions between the spins (interpreted as biases towards opinions) and used dynamical systems techniques to tackle its mean-field version, given by the flow: {eta}{sub {sigma}} = {Sigma}{sub {sigma}}'{sup M} = 1{eta}{sub {sigma}}{eta}{sigma}'({eta}{sub {sigma}}{rho}{sigma}'{yields}{sigma}-{sigma}'{rho}{sigma}{yields}{sigma}').Where hs is the proportion of agents with opinion (spin){sigma}', M is the number of opinions and {sigma}'{yields}{sigma}' is the probability weight for an agent with opinion {sigma} being convinced by another agentmore » with opinion {sigma}'. We made Monte Carlo simulations of the model in a complex network (using Barabasi-Albert networks [4]) and they displayed the same attractors than the mean-field. Using linear stability analysis, we were able to determine the mean-field attractor structure analytically and to show that it has connections with well known graph theory problems (maximal independent sets and positive fluxes in directed graphs). Our dynamical systems approach is quite simple and can be used also in other models, like the voter model.« less

Immunotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer: report from an international experts panel meeting of the Italian association of thoracic oncology.

PubMed

Gridelli, Cesare; Ascierto, Paolo A; Barberis, Massimo C P; Felip, Enriqueta; Garon, Edward B; O'brien, Mary; Senan, Suresh; Casaluce, Francesca; Sgambato, Assunta; Papadimitrakopoulou, Vali; De Marinis, Filippo

2016-12-01

The potential long term survival gain, related to immune adaptability and memory, the potential activity across multiple tumour types through targeting the immune system, and the opportunity for combinations offered by the unique mechanism of actions and safety profile of these new agents, all support the role of immunotherapy in the cancer treatment pathway or paradigm. Areas covered: The authors discuss the recent advances in the understanding of immunology and antitumor immune responses that have led to the development of new immunotherapies, including monoclonal antibodies that inhibit immune checkpoint pathways, such as Programmed Death-1 (PD-1) and Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte-Associated Antigen 4 (CTLA-4). Currently, two PD-1 inhibitors are available in clinical practice for treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): nivolumab and pembrolizumab. Expert opinion: Ongoing research will dictate future strategies, including the potential incorporation of immunotherapy in stage dependent treatment settings (early stage locally advanced disease and first line therapy for metastatic disease). Immunotherapy combinations are promising avenues, and careful selection of patients, doses of each agent and information supporting strategies (i.e. concomitant or sequential) is still needed.

Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

PubMed

Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

2015-01-01

Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

2004-01-01

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

12 CFR 911.7 - Availability of unpublished information by testimony.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... not authorize a current employee or agent to provide expert or opinion testimony for a private party... testimony of a former or current employee or agent available only through written interrogatories or... hearing. (2) If the Finance Board has authorized testimony in connection with a legal proceeding, the...

The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management – expert opinion

PubMed Central

Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M.; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

2016-01-01

Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient’s life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies. PMID:28035215

Kinetic models of opinion formation in the presence of personal conviction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugna, Carlo; Toscani, Giuseppe

2015-11-01

We consider a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type, which takes into account the influence of conviction during the formation of opinion in a system of agents, which interact through the binary exchanges, introduced by Toscani [G. Toscani, Commun. Math. Sci. 4, 481 (2006), 10.4310/CMS.2006.v4.n3.a1]. The original exchange mechanism, which is based on the human tendency to compromise and change of opinion through self-thinking, is here modified in the parameters of the compromise and diffusion terms, which now are assumed to depend on the personal degree of conviction. The numerical simulations show that the presence of conviction has the potential to break symmetry, and to produce clusters of opinions. The model is partially inspired by the recent work [L. Pareschi and G. Toscani, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372, 20130396 (2014), 10.1098/rsta.2013.0396], in which the role of knowledge in the formation of wealth distribution has been investigated.

Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

2010-12-01

In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

2016-04-01

The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

[Possibilities of medical opinionating in cases associated with "exposure to direct danger of death or serious health damage"].

PubMed

Konopka, Tomasz; Skupień, Elzbieta

2008-01-01

In the opinion of some forensic medicine experts, assessment of potential consequences in keeping with Article 160 of the Polish Penal code, which refers to the crime of "exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage", lies within the competence of medicolegal specialists. This view is accepted by courts and prosecution offices. However, the knowledge of physicians in the field of predicting consequences which did not occur is only somewhat better than that of lawyers. In simple cases, e.g. in trauma involving a sensitive area of the body, passing an opinion confirming a serious danger is not associated with any major problems. Similarly, no problems arise when passing an opinion on the lack of such a danger e.g. in the case of traumawithout any injuries. In complex cases, however, which include the majority of medical error cases, passing an opinion on exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage may be not feasible.

Executing CLIPS expert systems in a distributed environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, James; Myers, Leonard

1990-01-01

This paper describes a framework for running cooperating agents in a distributed environment to support the Intelligent Computer Aided Design System (ICADS), a project in progress at the CAD Research Unit of the Design Institute at the California Polytechnic State University. Currently, the systems aids an architectural designer in creating a floor plan that satisfies some general architectural constraints and project specific requirements. At the core of ICADS is the Blackboard Control System. Connected to the blackboard are any number of domain experts called Intelligent Design Tools (IDT). The Blackboard Control System monitors the evolving design as it is being drawn and helps resolve conflicts from the domain experts. The user serves as a partner in this system by manipulating the floor plan in the CAD system and validating recommendations made by the domain experts. The primary components of the Blackboard Control System are two expert systems executed by a modified CLIPS shell. The first is the Message Handler. The second is the Conflict Resolver. The Conflict Resolver synthesizes the suggestions made by the domain experts, which can be either CLIPS expert systems, or compiled C programs. In DEMO1, the current ICADS prototype, the CLIPS domain expert systems are Acoustics, Lighting, Structural, and Thermal; the compiled C domain experts are the CAD system and the User Interface.

Taxane anticancer agents: a patent perspective

PubMed Central

Ojima, Iwao; Lichtenthal, Brendan; Lee, Siyeon; Wang, Changwei; Wang, Xin

2016-01-01

Introduction Paclitaxel and docetaxel were two epoch-making anticancer drugs and have been successfully used in chemotherapy for a variety of cancer types. In 2010, a new taxane, cabazitaxel, was approved by FDA for use in combination with prednisone for the treatment of metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer. Albumin-bound paclitaxel (nab™-paclitaxel; abraxane) nanodroplet formulation was another notable invention (FDA approval 2005 for refractory, metastatic, or relapsed breast cancer). Abraxane in combination with gemcitabine for the treatment of pancreatic cancer was approved by FDA in 2013. Accordingly, there have been a huge number of patent applications dealing with taxane anticancer agents in the last five years. Thus, it is a good time to review the progress in this area and find the next wave for new developments. Area covered This review article covers the patent literature from 2010 to early 2015 on various aspects of taxane-based chemotherapies and drug developments. Expert opinion Three FDA-approved taxane anticancer drugs will continue to expand their therapeutic applications, especially through drug combinations and new formulations. Inspired by the success of abraxane, new nano-formulations are emerging. Highly potent new-generation taxanes will play a key role in the development of efficacious tumor-targeted drug delivery systems. PMID:26651178

An expert opinion on PANDAS/PANS: highlights and controversies.

PubMed

Chiarello, Francesca; Spitoni, Silvia; Hollander, Eric; Matucci Cerinic, Marco; Pallanti, Stefano

2017-06-01

'Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Disorders Associated with Streptococcal Infections' (PANDAS) identified a unique subgroup of patients with abrupt onset of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms clinically related to Streptococcus infection and accompanied by neuropsychological and motor symptoms. After almost 20 years, PANDAS has not been accepted as distinct disorder and new criteria for paediatric acute-onset neuropsychiatric syndrome (PANS) have been replaced it, highlighting the fact that several agents rather than only Streptococcus might be involved. Extensive review of the PANDAS/PANS literature was performed on PubMed. Although antibiotics have been reported to be effective for acute and prophylactic phases in several uncontrolled studies and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) are used during exacerbations, clinical multicenter trials are still missing. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) are still the first line of recommendation for acute onset OCD spectrum. Immunological therapies should be restricted to a few cases. While PANDAS has found no confirmation as a distinct syndrome, and it is not presented in DSM-5, patients with acute onset OCD spectrum, neurocognitive and motor symptoms should be evaluated for inflammatory, infective, immunological and metabolic abnormalities with a comprehensive diagnostic algorithm.

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

PubMed

Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

2018-05-29

Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

Survival of extreme opinions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

2009-12-01

We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

Expert consensus for performing right heart catheterisation for suspected pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis: a Delphi consensus study with cluster analysis.

PubMed

Avouac, Jérôme; Huscher, Dörte; Furst, Daniel E; Opitz, Christian F; Distler, Oliver; Allanore, Yannick

2014-01-01

To establish an expert consensus on which criteria are the most appropriate in clinical practice to refer patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) for right heart catheterisation (RHC) when pulmonary hypertension (PH) is suspected. A three stage internet based Delphi consensus exercise involving worldwide PH experts was designed. In the first stage, a comprehensive list of domains and items combining evidence based indications and expert opinions were obtained. In the second and third stages, experts were asked to rate each item selected in the list. After each of stages 2 and 3, the number of items and criteria were reduced according to a cluster analysis. A literature search and the opinions of 47 experts participating in Delphi stage 1 provided a list of seven domains containing 142 criteria. After stages 2 and 3, these domains and tools were reduced to three domains containing eight tools: clinical (progressive dyspnoea over the past 3 months, unexplained dyspnoea, worsening of WHO dyspnoea functional class, any finding on physical examination suggestive of elevated right heart pressures and any sign of right heart failure), echocardiography (systolic pulmonary artery pressure >45 mm Hg and right ventricle dilation) and pulmonary function tests (diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide <50% without pulmonary fibrosis). Among experts in pulmonary arterial hypertension-SSc, a core set of criteria for clinical practice to refer SSc patients for RHC has been defined by Delphi consensus methods. Although these indications are recommended by this expert group to be used as an interim tool, it will be necessary to formally validate the present tools in further studies.

Quantifying catchment water balances and their uncertainties by expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebok, Eva; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Warmink, Jord J.; Stisen, Simon; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2017-04-01

The increasing demand on water resources necessitates a more responsible and sustainable water management requiring a thorough understanding of hydrological processes both on small scale and on catchment scale. On catchment scale, the characterization of hydrological processes is often carried out by calculating a water balance based on the principle of mass conservation in hydrological fluxes. Assuming a perfect water balance closure and estimating one of these fluxes as a residual of the water balance is a common practice although this estimate will contain uncertainties related to uncertainties in the other components. Water balance closure on the catchment scale is also an issue in Denmark, thus, it was one of the research objectives of the HOBE hydrological observatory, that has been collecting data in the Skjern river catchment since 2008. Water balance components in the 1050 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and the nested 120 km2 Holtum catchment, located in the glacial outwash plan of the Skjern catchment, were estimated using a multitude of methods. As the collected data enables the complex assessment of uncertainty of both the individual water balance components and catchment-scale water balances, the expert elicitation approach was chosen to integrate the results of the hydrological observatory. This approach relies on the subjective opinion of experts whose available knowledge and experience about the subject allows to integrate complex information from multiple sources. In this study 35 experts were involved in a multi-step elicitation process with the aim of (1) eliciting average annual values of water balance components for two nested catchments and quantifying the contribution of different sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty in these average annual estimates; (2) calculating water balances for two catchments by reaching consensus among experts interacting in form of group discussions. To address the complex problem of water balance closure

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

PubMed Central

Morgan, M. Granger

2014-01-01

The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

PubMed

Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-15

A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

Professional Opinion Concerning the Effectiveness of Bracing Relative to Observation in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

PubMed Central

Dolan, Lori A.; Donnelly, Melanie J.; Spratt, Kevin F.; Weinstein, Stuart L.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine if community equipoise exists concerning the effectiveness of bracing in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Background Data Bracing is the standard of care for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis despite the lack of strong reasearch evidence concerning its effectiveness. Thus, some researchers support the idea of a randomized trial, whereas others think that randomization in the face of a standard of care would be unethical. Methods A random of Scoliosis Research Society and Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America members were asked to consider 12 clinical profiles and to give their opinion concerning the radiographic outcomes after observation and bracing. Results An expert panel was created from the respondents. They expressed a wide array of opinions concerning the percentage of patients within each scenario who would benefit from bracing. Agreement was noted concerning the risk due to bracing for post-menarchal patients only. Conclusions This study found a high degree of variability in opinion among clinicians concerning the effectiveness of bracing, suggesting that a randomized trial of bracing would be ethical. PMID:17414008

“Can It Read My Mind?” – What Do the Public and Experts Think of the Current (Mis)Uses of Neuroimaging?

PubMed Central

Wardlaw, Joanna M.; O'Connell, Garret; Shuler, Kirsten; DeWilde, Janet; Haley, Jane; Escobar, Oliver; Murray, Shaun; Rae, Robert; Jarvie, Donald; Sandercock, Peter; Schafer, Burkhard

2011-01-01

Emerging applications of neuroimaging outside medicine and science have received intense public exposure through the media. Media misrepresentations can create a gulf between public and scientific understanding of the capabilities of neuroimaging and raise false expectations. To determine the extent of this effect and determine public opinions on acceptable uses and the need for regulation, we designed an electronic survey to obtain anonymous opinions from as wide a range of members of the public and neuroimaging experts as possible. The surveys ran from 1st June to 30 September 2010, asked 10 and 21 questions, respectively, about uses of neuroimaging outside traditional medical diagnosis, data storage, science communication and potential methods of regulation. We analysed the responses using descriptive statistics; 660 individuals responded to the public and 303 individuals responded to the expert survey. We found evidence of public skepticism about the use of neuroimaging for applications such as lie detection or to determine consumer preferences and considerable disquiet about use by employers or government and about how their data would be stored and used. While also somewhat skeptical about new applications of neuroimaging, experts grossly underestimated how often neuroimaging had been used as evidence in court. Although both the public and the experts rated highly the importance of a better informed public in limiting the inappropriate uses to which neuroimaging might be put, opinions differed on the need for, and mechanism of, actual regulation. Neuroscientists recognized the risks of inaccurate reporting of neuroimaging capabilities in the media but showed little motivation to engage with the public. The present study also emphasizes the need for better frameworks for scientific engagement with media and public education. PMID:21991367

The Future of Forest Management on NIPF Lands in the South: Results of an Expert Opinion Survey

Treesearch

Steverson O. Moffat; Frederick W. Cubbage; Anthony J. Cascio; Raymond M. Sheffield

1998-01-01

A survey was sent to each state forester in the 13 states in the Southeast and South Central Regions to ask their opinions regarding the future of forest management on NIPF lands in their state. The results indicate that changes are in store for NIPF lands between now and 2020. Planted pine is projected to increase 7% in area in the South, largely at the expense of...

Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion.

PubMed

Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

2016-06-01

Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank

Bioethics governance in Israel: an expert regime.

PubMed

Shalev, Carmel; Hashiloni-Dolev, Yael

2011-01-01

This paper provides an overview of bioethics governance in Israel through an analytical description of the legal framework for the interface between individuals and biomedical practices. There is no national agency with general oversight of bioethics policy and decision making, and the rules that apply to individual usage of biomedical technologies are laid down in a multitude of different statutes, regulations and administrative directives. Expert committees play a central role in this regulatory system in two capacities: as governmental advisory bodies that recommend policy; and as decision-making bodies that resolve conflicts around patients' rights or grant individual access to biomedical technologies. This decentralised system of governance through expert committees allows for adaptation to dynamic technological developments and flexibility in accommodating creative societal usage. At the same time the experts are the agents of the state's bio-power at the expense of personal autonomy and open public deliberation. The paper is part of a larger study investigating Israel's bioethics governance and its regime of experts, which includes an examination of the normative level of regulation, and an analysis of the composition of the expert committees. Our findings suggest that Israel has a decentralised system of governance with piecemeal regulation that has established a bioethics technocracy, governed by the ministry of health and dominated by the medical profession. The present paper is confined to a description and discussion of the legal framework of Israel's expert bioethics regime. Here, our major conclusion is that Israel has established a technocracy of official expert ethics committees, which controls life and death decisions.

[The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

PubMed

Stojer, Joanna

2011-01-01

The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

Collaborative Information Agents on the World Wide Web

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, James R.; Mathe, Nathalie; Wolfe, Shawn; Koga, Dennis J. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

In this paper, we present DIAMS, a system of distributed, collaborative information agents which help users access, collect, organize, and exchange information on the World Wide Web. Personal agents provide their owners dynamic displays of well organized information collections, as well as friendly information management utilities. Personal agents exchange information with one another. They also work with other types of information agents such as matchmakers and knowledge experts to facilitate collaboration and communication.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R H; van der Lans, Ivo A; Frewer, Lynn J

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11051-012-0857-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A cost-effectiveness comparison of the use of antimicrobial agents for treatment or prophylaxis of travelers' diarrhea.

PubMed

Reves, R R; Johnson, P C; Ericsson, C D; DuPont, H L

1988-11-01

We conducted a decision analysis to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial agents used for treatment with their use for prophylaxis of travelers' diarrhea. Estimates of the likelihood and the cost of various outcomes were obtained from a panel of experts using the Delphi group opinion technique. Treatment with sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim for three days was compared with daily prophylaxis with sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim or doxycycline. The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis with either agent (75% to 83%) was greater than that of treatment (38%). Treatment would become more cost-effective than prophylaxis when the cumulative risk of acquiring travelers' diarrhea was less than 0.05 episodes per person per week or if the effectiveness of prophylaxis fell below 35% for doxycycline and 46% for sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim. The most important contributor to the mean cost of travelers' diarrhea in this analysis was the cost associated with a day of incapacitation due to illness. On the basis of the results of this decision analysis, we conclude that prophylaxis of travelers' diarrhea is an option that should be considered for individual situations and recommend further studies of its cost-effectiveness.

Public Opinion as Collective Coorientation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tipton, Leonard; And Others

To conceptualize public opinion as something other than "mere aggregation" of individual opinions requires systemic models that identify component parts of public opinion and their structural/functional relationships. Operationalization requires asking respondents not only their individual opinion, but also their perception of public…

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

Current challenges in optimizing systemic therapy for patients with pancreatic cancer: expert perspectives from the Australasian Gastrointestinal Trials Group (AGITG) with invited international faculty.

PubMed

Segelov, Eva; Lordick, Florian; Goldstein, David; Chantrill, Lorraine A; Croagh, Daniel; Lawrence, Ben; Arnold, Dirk; Chau, Ian; Obermannova, Radka; Price, Timothy Jay

2017-10-01

Despite recent progress, the outlook for most patients with pancreatic cancer remains poor. There is variation in how patients are managed globally due to differing interpretations of the evidence, partly because studies in this disease are challenging to undertake. This article collates the evidence upon which current best practice is based and offers an expert opinion from an international faculty on how latest developments should influence current treatment paradigms. Areas covered: Optimal chemotherapy for first and subsequent lines of therapy; optimal management of locally advanced, non-metastatic cancer including the role of neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy, current evidence for adjuvant chemotherapy, major advances in pancreatic cancer genomics and challenges in supportive care particularly relevant to patients with pancreatic cancer. For each section, literature was reviewed by comprehensive search techniques, including clinical trial websites and abstracts from international cancer meetings. Expert commentary: For each section, a commentary is provided. Overall the challenges identified were: difficulties in diagnosing pancreatic cancer early, challenges for performing randomised clinical trials in all stages of the disease, some progress in systemic therapy with new agents and in identifying molecular subtypes that may be clinically relevant and move towards personalized therapy, but still, pancreatic cancer remains a very poor prognosis cancer with significant palliative care needs.

Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study

PubMed Central

Tosteson, Anna NA; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology. Design Simulation study. Setting 12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions. Participants Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus. Main outcome measures Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists’ clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice. Results Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for

No meaningful association between suicidal behavior and the use of IL-17A-neutralizing or IL-17RA-blocking agents.

PubMed

Chiricozzi, Andrea; Romanelli, Marco; Saraceno, Rosita; Torres, Tiago

2016-12-01

An emerging class of agents blocking IL-17 signaling represents a very promising therapeutic approach. One of these agents, brodalumab, has been associated with an increased risk of suicide behavior. Areas covered: This review sought to provide an overview strictly focused on suicide behavior signals related to the use of IL-17 agents. Data collection regarding this peculiar safety aspect was primarily based on: (i) a revision of safety outcomes belonging to phase II and phase III trials; (ii) a systematic search using the Pubmed Medline database; and (iii) collecting recent data issued as posters or communications in eminent international meetings. Expert opinion: Whilst secukinumab and ixekizumab were not associated with increased signal of suicidal behavior, being recently approved for the treatment of psoriasis by EMA and FDA, brodalumab raised concern because of suicide behavior cases that led to pause momentarily its development program during pre-marketing stage before obtaining the positive recommendation by an FDA advisory panel for its approval. Indeed, a careful re-evaluation of brodalumab safety profile is being performed and no evidence clarified a significant association or a pathogenic mechanism linking brodalumab treatment to the risk of suicidal behavior, suggesting that cases of suicidal behavior accidentally occurred during brodalumab trials.

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

PubMed Central

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014.

PubMed

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-06-01

One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students' and experts' performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members' performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts' viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don't know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0.01. It showed 86.7% student and 33.3% of experts is satisfied with the

Engaging Experts: Science-Policy Interactions and the Introduction of Congestion Charging in Stockholm.

PubMed

Broström, Anders; McKelvey, Maureen

2018-01-01

This article analyzes the conditions for mobilizing the science base for development of public policy. It does so by focusing upon the science-policy interface, specifically the processes of direct interaction between scientists and scientifically trained experts, on the one hand, and agents of policymaking organizations, on the other. The article defines two dimensions - cognitive distance and expert autonomy - which are argued to influence knowledge exchange, in such a way as to shape the outcome. A case study on the implementation of congestion charges in Stockholm, Sweden, illustrates how the proposed framework pinpoints three central issues for understanding these processes: (1) Differentiating the roles of, e.g., a science-based consultancy firm and an academic environment in policy formation; (2) Examining the fit between the organizational form of the science-policy interface and the intended goals; and (3) Increasing our understanding of when policymaker agents themselves need to develop scientific competence in order to interact effectively with scientific experts.

Educator of the Court: The Role of the Expert Witness in Cases Involving Autism Spectrum Disorder

PubMed Central

Berryessa, Colleen M.

2017-01-01

The role of the expert witness in legal contexts is to educate fact finders of the court who may have no background in the expert’s area. This role can be especially difficult for those who assist in cases involving individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). As expert assistance on ASD is crucial to ensuring just outcomes for individuals diagnosed with ASD, knowledge on how expert witnesses perceive and approach their roles, and what factors may influence these perceptions, is essential. This qualitative research utilizes semi-structured interviews with a sample of expert witnesses in cases involving ASD, analyzed using a grounded-theory constant comparative analytic approach. Data reveal that experts appear to view their roles in court as reconstructionists, educators, myth-dispellers, and most of all, communicators, actively using their testimony to fill these roles in cases. These results also allow for the development of a model that illustrates two areas that coalesce to affect how experts view their roles in court: (1) personal experiences of experts in cases in which they have been involved; and (2) influences outside experts’ personal experiences, such as their general opinions or observations regarding ASD and its relationship to the criminal justice system. PMID:28943746

A three-state kinetic agent-based model to analyze tax evasion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno

2014-11-01

In this work we study the problem of tax evasion on a fully-connected population. For this purpose, we consider that the agents may be in three different states, namely honest tax payers, tax evaders and undecided, that are individuals in an intermediate class among honests and evaders. Every individual can change his/her state following a kinetic exchange opinion dynamics, where the agents interact by pairs with competitive negative (with probability q) and positive (with probability 1-q) couplings, representing agreement/disagreement between pairs of agents. In addition, we consider the punishment rules of the Zaklan econophysics model, for which there is a probability pa of an audit each agent is subject to in every period and a length of time k detected tax evaders remain honest. Our results suggest that below the critical point qc=1/4 of the opinion dynamics the compliance is high, and the punishment rules have a small effect in the population. On the other hand, for q>qc the tax evasion can be considerably reduced by the enforcement mechanism. We also discuss the impact of the presence of the undecided agents in the evolution of the system.

Agent-Based Models in Social Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quang, Le Anh; Jung, Nam; Cho, Eun Sung; Choi, Jae Han; Lee, Jae Woo

2018-06-01

We review the agent-based models (ABM) on social physics including econophysics. The ABM consists of agent, system space, and external environment. The agent is autonomous and decides his/her behavior by interacting with the neighbors or the external environment with the rules of behavior. Agents are irrational because they have only limited information when they make decisions. They adapt using learning from past memories. Agents have various attributes and are heterogeneous. ABM is a non-equilibrium complex system that exhibits various emergence phenomena. The social complexity ABM describes human behavioral characteristics. In ABMs of econophysics, we introduce the Sugarscape model and the artificial market models. We review minority games and majority games in ABMs of game theory. Social flow ABM introduces crowding, evacuation, traffic congestion, and pedestrian dynamics. We also review ABM for opinion dynamics and voter model. We discuss features and advantages and disadvantages of Netlogo, Repast, Swarm, and Mason, which are representative platforms for implementing ABM.

RRx-001: a systemically non-toxic M2-to-M1 macrophage stimulating and prosensitizing agent in Phase II clinical trials.

PubMed

Oronsky, Bryan; Paulmurugan, Ramasamy; Foygel, Kira; Scicinski, Jan; Knox, Susan J; Peehl, Donna; Zhao, Hongjuan; Ning, Shoucheng; Cabrales, Pedro; Summers, Thomas A; Reid, Tony R; Fitch, William L; Kim, Michelle M; Trepel, Jane B; Lee, Min-Jung; Kesari, Santosh; Abrouk, Nacer D; Day, Regina M; Oronsky, Arnold; Ray, Carolyn M; Carter, Corey A

2017-01-01

According to Hanahan and Weinberg, cancer manifests as six essential physiologic hallmarks: (1) self-sufficiency in growth signals, (2) insensitivity to growth-inhibitory signals, (3) evasion of programmed cell death, (4) limitless replicative potential, (5) sustained angiogenesis, and (6) invasion and metastasis. As a facilitator of these traits as well as immunosuppression and chemoresistance, the presence of tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) may serve as the seventh hallmark of cancer. Anticancer agents that successfully reprogram TAMs to target rather than support tumor cells may hold the key to better therapeutic outcomes. Areas covered: This article summarizes the characteristics of the macrophage-stimulating agent RRx-001, a molecular iconoclast, sourced from the aerospace industry, with a particular emphasis on the cell-to-cell transfer mechanism of action (RBCs to TAMs) underlying its antitumor activity as well as its chemo and radioprotective properties, consolidated from various preclinical and clinical studies. Expert opinion: RRx-001 is macrophage-stimulating agent with the potential to synergize with chemotherapy, radiotherapy and immunotherapy while simultaneously protecting normal tissues from their cytotoxic effects. Given the promising indications of activity in multiple tumor types and these normal tissue protective properties, RRx-001 may be used to treat a broad spectrum of malignancies, if it is approved in the future.

Opinion Integration and Summarization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Yue

2011-01-01

As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, Steven

This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

Fuselets: an agent based architecture for fusion of heterogeneous information and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyerer, Jürgen; Heizmann, Michael; Sander, Jennifer

2006-04-01

A new architecture for fusing information and data from heterogeneous sources is proposed. The approach takes criminalistics as a model. In analogy to the work of detectives, who attempt to investigate crimes, software agents are initiated that pursue clues and try to consolidate or to dismiss hypotheses. Like their human pendants, they can, if questions beyond their competences arise, consult expert agents. Within the context of a certain task, region, and time interval, specialized operations are applied to each relevant information source, e.g. IMINT, SIGINT, ACINT,..., HUMINT, data bases etc. in order to establish hit lists of first clues. Each clue is described by its pertaining facts, uncertainties, and dependencies in form of a local degree-of-belief (DoB) distribution in a Bayesian sense. For each clue an agent is initiated which cooperates with other agents and experts. Expert agents support to make use of different information sources. Consultations of experts, capable to access certain information sources, result in changes of the DoB of the pertaining clue. According to the significance of concentration of their DoB distribution clues are abandoned or pursued further to formulate task specific hypotheses. Communications between the agents serve to find out whether different clues belong to the same cause and thus can be put together. At the end of the investigation process, the different hypotheses are evaluated by a jury and a final report is created that constitutes the fusion result. The approach proposed avoids calculating global DoB distributions by adopting a local Bayesian approximation and thus reduces the complexity of the exact problem essentially. Different information sources are transformed into DoB distributions using the maximum entropy paradigm and considering known facts as constraints. Nominal, ordinal and cardinal quantities can be treated within this framework equally. The architecture is scalable by tailoring the number of agents

An expert review of the scientific literature on independent wheelchair transfers.

PubMed

Koontz, Alicia; Toro, Maria; Kankipati, Padmaja; Naber, Megan; Cooper, Rory

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to perform a literature review and seek expert opinion on the relevance and strength of the evidence concerning setup and transfer performance. Scientific literature databases were searched until June 2009 using 43 keywords resulting in 339 articles. These were internally reviewed and narrowed to 41 articles which were formally assessed by 13 external experts. Articles that 80% or more of the reviewers scored as moderately or highly relevant were included in the final results. Nineteen articles met the relevancy criteria. The aspects of setup that experts felt were addressed to some degree included vertical transfer distance, transferring across a gap and position of the mobility device relative to target destination. None of the 19 articles were scored as having strong to very strong resulting evidence. There is a consensus among studies that transferring to a higher surface implies greater exertion of the upper limb. However, there is no evidence concerning how high or low, how close, and how much space is needed next to the target surface so it can be accessible by a majority of wheelchair users.

Expert guidelines for the management of Alport syndrome and thin basement membrane nephropathy.

PubMed

Savige, Judy; Gregory, Martin; Gross, Oliver; Kashtan, Clifford; Ding, Jie; Flinter, Frances

2013-02-01

Few prospective, randomized controlled clinical trials address the diagnosis and management of patients with Alport syndrome or thin basement membrane nephropathy. Adult and pediatric nephrologists and geneticists from four continents whose clinical practice focuses on these conditions have developed the following guidelines. The 18 recommendations are based on Level D (Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research, or first principles-National Health Service category) or Level III (Opinions of respected authorities, based on clinical experience, descriptive studies, or reports of expert committees-U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) evidence. The recommendations include the use of genetic testing as the gold standard for the diagnosis of Alport syndrome and the demonstration of its mode of inheritance; the need to identify and follow all affected members of a family with X-linked Alport syndrome, including most mothers of affected males; the treatment of males with X-linked Alport syndrome and individuals with autosomal recessive disease with renin-angiotensin system blockade, possibly even before the onset of proteinuria; discouraging the affected mothers of males with X-linked Alport syndrome from renal donation because of their own risk of kidney failure; and consideration of genetic testing to exclude X-linked Alport syndrome in some individuals with thin basement membrane nephropathy. The authors recognize that as evidence emerges, including data from patient registries, these guidelines will evolve further.

Behavioural Signs of Pain in Cats: An Expert Consensus

PubMed Central

Merola, Isabella; Mills, Daniel S.

2016-01-01

Objectives To identify where a consensus can be reached between veterinary experts in feline medicine on the core signs sufficient for pain (sufficient to indicate pain when they occur, but not necessarily present in all painful conditions) and necessary for pain (necessary in the presence of pain, but not always indicative of pain). Methods A modified Delphi technique was used, consisting of four rounds of questions and evaluation using nineteen participants during the period December 2014 and May 2015. Agreement was considered to be established when 80% of the experts concurred with the same opinion. Results Twenty-five signs were considered sufficient to indicate pain, but no single sign was considered necessary for it. Discussion Further studies are needed to evaluate the validity of these 25 behavioural signs if a specific pain assessment tool is to be developed that is capable of assessing pain in cats based on observational methods alone. The signs reported here may nonetheless help both vets and owners form an initial evaluation of the pain status of cats in their care. PMID:26909809

Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

PubMed

Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

2016-11-01

There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A framework for building real-time expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. Daniel

1991-01-01

The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

2016-01-01

Introduction Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems – from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. Methods We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. Results The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14–16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size

Opinion formation in time-varying social networks: The case of the naming game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maity, Suman Kalyan; Manoj, T. Venkat; Mukherjee, Animesh

2012-09-01

We study the dynamics of the naming game as an opinion formation model on time-varying social networks. This agent-based model captures the essential features of the agreement dynamics by means of a memory-based negotiation process. Our study focuses on the impact of time-varying properties of the social network of the agents on the naming game dynamics. In particular, we perform a computational exploration of this model using simulations on top of real networks. We investigate the outcomes of the dynamics on two different types of time-varying data: (1) the networks vary on a day-to-day basis and (2) the networks vary within very short intervals of time (20 sec). In the first case, we find that networks with strong community structure hinder the system from reaching global agreement; the evolution of the naming game in these networks maintains clusters of coexisting opinions indefinitely leading to metastability. In the second case, we investigate the evolution of the naming game in perfect synchronization with the time evolution of the underlying social network shedding new light on the traditional emergent properties of the game that differ largely from what has been reported in the existing literature.

Opinion survey: materials management and purchasing habits.

PubMed

1988-01-01

This opinion survey was undertaken to gauge the current status of materials management and purchasing departments at hospitals throughout the southern and southeastern United States. The survey was based on lengthy telephone interviews (from 30 to 60 minutes) and followup discussions with materials managers, purchasing agents and administrators. Interviews covered a variety of topics, including: cost-containment strategies; group purchasing and consignment purchasing; and current and anticipated trends in materials management. Many questions were left open-ended, so the survey could gauge attitudes, as well as determine contemporary practices and procedures. (In some cases, respondents were also given the opportunity to comment on the statements of their peers, in order to corroborate and substantiate data.)

Agent-based computational models to explore diffusion of medical innovations among cardiologists.

PubMed

Borracci, Raul A; Giorgi, Mariano A

2018-04-01

Diffusion of medical innovations among physicians rests on a set of theoretical assumptions, including learning and decision-making under uncertainty, social-normative pressures, medical expert knowledge, competitive concerns, network performance effects, professional autonomy or individualism and scientific evidence. The aim of this study was to develop and test four real data-based, agent-based computational models (ABM) to qualitatively and quantitatively explore the factors associated with diffusion and application of innovations among cardiologists. Four ABM were developed to study diffusion and application of medical innovations among cardiologists, considering physicians' network connections, leaders' opinions, "adopters' categories", physicians' autonomy, scientific evidence, patients' pressure, affordability for the end-user population, and promotion from companies. Simulations demonstrated that social imitation among local cardiologists was sufficient for innovation diffusion, as long as opinion leaders did not act as detractors of the innovation. Even in the absence of full scientific evidence to support innovation, up to one-fifth of cardiologists could accept it when local leaders acted as promoters. Patients' pressure showed a large effect size (Cohen's d > 1.2) on the proportion of cardiologists applying an innovation. Two qualitative patterns (speckled and granular) appeared associated to traditional Gompertz and sigmoid cumulative distributions. These computational models provided a semiquantitative insight on the emergent collective behavior of a physician population facing the acceptance or refusal of medical innovations. Inclusion in the models of factors related to patients' pressure and accesibility to medical coverage revealed the contrast between accepting and effectively adopting a new product or technology for population health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Treatment Guidelines for Preoperative Radiation Therapy for Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Preliminary Consensus of an International Expert Panel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org; Wang, Dian; Haas, Rick L.M.

Purpose: Evidence for external beam radiation therapy (RT) as part of treatment for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) is limited. Preoperative RT is the subject of a current randomized trial, but the results will not be available for many years. In the meantime, many practitioners use preoperative RT for RPS, and although this approach is used in practice, there are no radiation treatment guidelines. An international expert panel was convened to develop consensus treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Methods and Materials: An expert panel of 15 academic radiation oncologists who specialize in the treatment of sarcoma was assembled. A systematicmore » review of reports related to RT for RPS, RT for extremity sarcoma, and RT-related toxicities for organs at risk was performed. Due to the paucity of high-quality published data on the subject of RT for RPS, consensus recommendations were based largely on expert opinion derived from clinical experience and extrapolation of relevant published reports. It is intended that these clinical practice guidelines be updated as pertinent data become available. Results: Treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS are presented. Conclusions: An international panel of radiation oncologists who specialize in sarcoma reached consensus guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Many of the recommendations are based on expert opinion because of the absence of higher level evidence and, thus, are best regarded as preliminary. We emphasize that the role of preoperative RT for RPS has not been proven, and we await data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) study of preoperative radiotherapy plus surgery versus surgery alone for patients with RPS. Further data are also anticipated pertaining to normal tissue dose constraints, particularly for bowel tolerance. Nonetheless, as we await these data, the guidelines herein can be used to establish treatment uniformity to aid future assessments of

[Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

PubMed

Burggraf, H

1979-02-01

German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

Design a Fuzzy Rule-based Expert System to Aid Earlier Diagnosis of Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Arpanahi, Hadi Kazemi; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Ghazisaiedi, Marjan; Dargahi, Hossein; Zendehdel, Kazem

2018-01-01

Screening and health check-up programs are most important sanitary priorities, that should be undertaken to control dangerous diseases such as gastric cancer that affected by different factors. More than 50% of gastric cancer diagnoses are made during the advanced stage. Currently, there is no systematic approach for early diagnosis of gastric cancer. to develop a fuzzy expert system that can identify gastric cancer risk levels in individuals. This system was implemented in MATLAB software, Mamdani inference technique applied to simulate reasoning of experts in the field, a total of 67 fuzzy rules extracted as a rule-base based on medical expert's opinion. 50 case scenarios were used to evaluate the system, the information of case reports is given to the system to find risk level of each case report then obtained results were compared with expert's diagnosis. Results revealed that sensitivity was 92.1% and the specificity was 83.1%. The results show that is possible to develop a system that can identify High risk individuals for gastric cancer. The system can lead to earlier diagnosis, this may facilitate early treatment and reduce gastric cancer mortality rate.

Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

2004-01-01

A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study.

PubMed

Elmore, Joann G; Tosteson, Anna Na; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

2016-06-22

 To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology.  Simulation study.  12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions.  Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus.  Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists' clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice.  Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for cases with initial interpretations of atypia, DCIS, or invasive

Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

PubMed

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2015-10-01

This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

Patient engagement in the process of planning and designing outpatient care improvements at the Veterans Administration Health-care System: findings from an online expert panel.

PubMed

Khodyakov, Dmitry; Stockdale, Susan E; Smith, Nina; Booth, Marika; Altman, Lisa; Rubenstein, Lisa V

2017-02-01

There is a strong interest in the Veterans Administration (VA) Health-care System in promoting patient engagement to improve patient care. We solicited expert opinion using an online expert panel system with a modified Delphi structure called ExpertLens ™ . Experts reviewed, rated and discussed eight scenarios, representing four patient engagement roles in designing and improving VA outpatient care (consultant, implementation advisor, equal stakeholder and lead stakeholder) and two VA levels (local and regional). Rating criteria included desirability, feasibility, patient ability, physician/staff acceptance and impact on patient-centredness and care quality. Data were analysed using the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method for determining consensus. Experts rated consulting with patients at the local level as the most desirable and feasible patient engagement approach. Engagement at the local level was considered more desirable than engagement at the regional level. Being an equal stakeholder at the local level received the highest ratings on the patient-centredness and health-care quality criteria. Our findings illustrate expert opinion about different approaches to patient engagement and highlight the benefits and challenges posed by each. Although experts rated local consultations with patients on an as-needed basis as most desirable and feasible, they rated being an equal stakeholder at the local level as having the highest potential impact on patient-centredness and care quality. This result highlights a perceived discrepancy between what is most desirable and what is potentially most effective, but suggests that routine local engagement of patients as equal stakeholders may be a desirable first step for promoting high-quality, patient-centred care. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Medical expert consensus in AH on the clinical use of triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in Spain].

PubMed

Mazón, P; Galve, E; Gómez, J; Gorostidi, M; Górriz, J L; Mediavilla, J D

The opinion of experts (different specialties) on the triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in clinical practice may differ. Online questionnaire with controversial aspects of the triple therapy answered by panel of experts in hypertension (HT) using two-round modified Delphi method. The questionnaire was completed by 158 experts: Internal Medicine (49), Nephrology (26), Cardiology (83). Consensus was reached (agreement) on 27/45 items (60%); 7 items showed differences statistically significant. Consensus was reached regarding: Predictive factors in the need for combination therapy and its efficacy vs. increasing the dose of a pretreatment, and advantage of triple therapy (prescription/adherence/cost/pressure control) vs. free combination. This consensus provides an overview of the clinical use of triple therapy in moderate-severe and resistant/difficult to control HT. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

PubMed Central

Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

2014-01-01

Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Hasan, Shahab; Rosenbaum, Rebecca L.; Smith, Jeremy C.

2014-01-01

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice-versa?

PubMed

Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Szwabiński, Janusz; Weron, Rafał

2014-01-01

Agent-based models (ABM) are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not. Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks) and analytic calculations (for a complete graph) we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature. This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.

Novel epigallocatechin gallate analogs as potential anticancer agents: a patent review (2009 – present)

PubMed Central

Landis-Piwowar, Kristin; Chen, Di; Foldes, Robert; Chan, Tak-Hang; Dou, Qing Ping

2013-01-01

Introduction Over the past three years numerous patents and patent applications have been published relating to scientific advances in the use of the green tea polyphenol epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) (the most abundant, and bioactive compound in green tea) and its analogs as anticancer agents. EGCG affects multiple molecular targets involved in cancer cell proliferation and survival; however, polyphenolic catechins, such as EGCG, generally exhibit poor oral bioavailability. Since the anticancer activity of polyphenols largely depends on their susceptibility to biotransformation reactions, numerous EGCG derivatives, analogs and prodrugs have been designed to improve the stability, bioavailability and anticancer potency of the native compound. Areas covered This review focuses on the applications of EGCG and its analogs, derivatives and prodrugs in the prevention and treatment of human cancers. A comprehensive description of patents related to EGCG and its derivatives, analogs and prodrugs and their uses as anticancer agents is included. Expert opinion EGCG targets multiple essential survival proteins and pathways in human cancer cells. Because it is unstable physiologically, numerous alterations to the EGCG molecule have been patented, either to improve the integrity of the native compound or to generate a more stable yet similarly efficacious molecule. EGCG and its derivatives, analogs and prodrugs could be developed into future drugs for chemoprevention, chemosensitization, radiosensitization and/or cancer interception. PMID:23230990

Considerations on long-term immuno-intervention in the treatment of multiple sclerosis: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Grigoriadis, Nikolaos; Linnebank, Michael; Alexandri, Nektaria; Muehl, Sarah; Hofbauer, Günther F L

2016-10-01

As management of multiple sclerosis (MS) requires life-long treatment with disease-modifying agents, any risks associated with long-term use should be considered when evaluating therapeutic options. Immune cells of the innate and adaptive immune systems play various roles in the pathogenesis of MS. MS therapies affect the immune system, each with a unique mode of action, and consequently possess different long-term safety profiles. Rare, but serious safety concerns, including an increased risk of infection and cancer, have been associated with immunosuppressant use. The risks associated with newer immunosuppressive agents, which target specific elements of MS disease pathophysiology, are not yet fully established as the duration of clinical trials is relatively short and post-marketing experience is limited. Non-immunosuppressants used to treat MS have well-defined safety profiles established over a large number of patient-years demonstrating them to be well-tolerated long-term treatment options. When considering the long-term use of disease-modifying agents for treating MS, classification as immunosuppressants or non-immunosuppressants can be useful when evaluating potential risks associated with chronic use. A successful therapeutic strategy for any serious, chronic disease such as MS should weigh effectiveness versus long-term safety of available treatments.

'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

PubMed

Herzog-Evans, Martine

2016-01-01

Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

PubMed Central

Dadgar, Elham; Janati, Ali; Tabrizi, Jafar Sadegh; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Barati, Omid

2012-01-01

Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view. Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo¬cus Group Discussions (FGD). Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par¬ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data. Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators. Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor¬tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions. PMID:24688938

Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

PubMed

Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

2017-10-02

Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

Lymphedema and employability - Review and results of a survey of Austrian experts.

PubMed

Neubauer, Markus; Schoberwalter, Dieter; Cenik, Fadime; Keilani, Mohammad; Crevenna, Richard

2017-03-01

Literature about lymphedema and its influence on the ability to work and employability is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the opinion of Austrian experts on factors influencing the ability to work and employability in patients suffering from lymphedema. A self-administered questionnaire consisting of 6 questions was sent to 12 Austrian lymphedema experts with 6 different specializations from May to August 2016. These experts were asked about suitable and unsuitable professions, the possible influence of lymphedema on the ability to work and employability as well as about existing and additional measures to improve the return to work. The reply rate was 100% (12 out of 12). All experts agreed that lymphedema can restrict the ability to work and employability. The leading reason for limited ability to work and employability was restricted mobility or function of the affected limb along with time-consuming therapeutic modalities, pain and psychological stress. The most suitable job named was teacher and the most unsuitable job named was cook. As easements for return to work, early rehabilitation, self-management, coping strategies, patient education, employer's goodwill and employer's cooperation were reported. Furthermore, experts stressed the need for an adjustment of the legal framework as well as low-barrier and more therapy offers. Adjusted work demands seem to be of greater importance to support the ability to work and employability than recommendations for specific job profiles alone. Experts suggest an adjustment of the legal framework for affected patients, claiming a right for early rehabilitation as well as for life-long therapy. Even though some clinically useful conclusions may be drawn from this article, further research in the field is warranted.

Will biofilm disassembly agents make it to market?

PubMed Central

Romero, Diego; Kolter, Roberto

2013-01-01

Nearly twelve years after promising results suggested that anti-biofilm agents might be developed into novel therapeutics, there are no such products on the market. In our opinion, the reasons for this have been predominantly economic. Recent developments, however, suggest that there may still be emerging opportunities for the developments of such products. PMID:21458996

Anti-HER2 Therapy Beyond Second-Line for HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer: A Short Review and Recommendations for Several Clinical Scenarios from a Spanish Expert Panel

PubMed Central

Martínez-Jañez, Noelia; Chacón, Ignacio; de Juan, Ana; Cruz-Merino, Luis; del Barco, Sònia; Fernández, Isaura; García-Teijido, Paula; Gómez-Bernal, Amalia; Plazaola, Arrate; Ponce, José; Servitja, Sonia; Zamora, Pilar

2016-01-01

Summary Background The aim of this project was to provide an expert opinion regarding anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) therapy beyond second-line treatment of metastatic breast cancer (mBC). Methods A group of experts discussed specific issues concerning anti-HER2 therapy in late-line settings in mBC. Results Trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) or dual HER2 blockade appeared to be good options for HER2-positive mBC after ≥ 2 HER2-targeted therapies. Once an objective response has been achieved with anti-HER2-containing therapy, the anti-HER2 agent can be continued until progression of the disease, unacceptable toxicity or patient decision. mBC treated with ≥ 3 consecutive lines of anti-HER therapy, ≥ 1 being a dual HER2 blockade and with early progression of disease during a fourth or later-line treatment, are clinically resistant to anti-HER therapy. For progression of metastasis in the brain after anti-HER2 therapy, lapatinib and chemotherapy appear to be a good alternative after best local treatment. Conclusions Further clinical trials are needed to provide valuable knowledge about the best treatment options in the later settings of mBC. PMID:27239176

Substitution of Assisted Living Services by Assistive Technology - Experts Opinions and Technical Feasibility.

PubMed

Schwartze, Jonas; Prekazi, Arianit; Schrom, Harald; Marschollek, Michael

2017-01-01

Ambient assisted living (AAL) may support ageing in place but is primarily driven by technology. The aim of this work is, to identifying reasons to move into assisted living institutions, their range of service and possible substitutability. We did semi-structured interviews with five experts from assisted living institutions and used results to design and implement assistive technologies in an AAL environment using BASIS, a cross domain bus system for smart buildings. Reasons for moving to assisted living institutions are expected benefits for chronic health problems, safety, social isolation and carefree living. We implemented six application systems for inactivity monitoring, stove shutdown, air quality monitoring, medication and appointment reminders, detection of unwanted situations before leaving and optical ringing of the doorbell. Substitution of selected assisted living services is feasible and has potential to delay necessity to move into assisted living institution if complement social services are installed.

Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

PubMed

Hu, Haibo

2017-11-01

Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

PubMed

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

The adversarial court system and the expert medical witness: 'The truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth?'.

PubMed

Ryan, Matthew

2003-06-01

This discussion aims to provide the occasional medical expert witness with background knowledge of the adversarial court system and the role of the medical expert witness within it. The parallel evolution of the adversarial and inquisitorial legal systems has been more out of tradition rather than any systematic review of the effectiveness of one system or the other. Both legal systems have their merits and limitations. Witnesses within the adversarial system are required to present evidence in a structured and highly stylized format consisting of 'evidence in chief' followed by 'cross-examination'. This format is an attempt to exclude unreliable evidence. The medical witness is an 'expert' by means of specialized knowledge not possessed by the general public. This distinction allows the expert medical witness to offer his or her opinion as evidence. There remain several limitations to the expert's evidence and these relate to common knowledge, field of expertise and the 'ultimate issue'. The current practice of selection of expert medical witnesses is seriously flawed with several pressures operating to maximise bias and inaccurate testimony. Doctors should not only anticipate change in this area they should lead reform in this area.

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

PubMed Central

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-01-01

Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0

When do we believe experts? The power of the unorthodox view.

PubMed

Alison, Laurence; Almond, Louise; Christiansen, Paul; Waring, Sara; Power, Nicola; Villejoubert, Gaëlle

2012-01-01

This paper examines the extent to which orthodoxy (degree of typicality) and congruence (degree of similarity with own opinion) mediate the influence of expert advice on decision makers' judgments. Overall, 227 members of the public and 60 police officers completed an online questionnaire involving an investigation into a child sex offence. Participants were asked to first (i) formulate their own "profile" of a likely offender then (ii) estimate the guilt of two presented suspect descriptions (orthodox vs. unorthodox), and, following the presentation of an "expert's" profile that matched either the orthodox or the unorthodox suspect, (iii) re-evaluate their guilt judgments of the two suspects based on this new advice. Finally, (iv) the perceived similarity (congruence) between the participants' own and the expert profile was assessed. Results revealed two key findings. First, expert profiles that matched a suspect's description elevated perceptions of guilt in that suspect, whilst also, simultaneously, very significantly decreasing the perception of guilt of the alternative suspect. This suggests a powerful rejection and downward revision of the other suspect. Second, perceived similarity of the profile (to one's own profile) was only a significant factor in increasing guilt judgments when assigning guilt to the unorthodox (as opposed to orthodox) suspect. Comparisons of lay judgments with those of police officers revealed few significant differences in effects. The finding that advice is most influential when unorthodox and incongruent suggests that decision makers are more likely to reevaluate judgments when expert advice contributes novel information that contradicts their beliefs. The practical implications of these findings are discussed for profilers, police, and decision research in general. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

PubMed

Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

2011-01-01

Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

Competing opinion diffusion on social networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people’s opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world. PMID:29291101

The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

Finding shared decisions in stakeholder networks: An agent-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pira, Michela; Inturri, Giuseppe; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2017-01-01

We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

Complex dynamics of a nonlinear voter model with contrarian agents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanabe, Shoma; Masuda, Naoki, E-mail: masuda@mist.i.u-tokyo.ac.jp

2013-12-15

We investigate mean-field dynamics of a nonlinear opinion formation model with congregator and contrarian agents. Each agent assumes one of the two possible states. Congregators imitate the state of other agents with a rate that increases with the number of other agents in the opposite state, as in the linear voter model and nonlinear majority voting models. Contrarians flip the state with a rate that increases with the number of other agents in the same state. The nonlinearity controls the strength of the majority voting and is used as a main bifurcation parameter. We show that the model undergoes amore » rich bifurcation scenario comprising the egalitarian equilibrium, two symmetric lopsided equilibria, limit cycle, and coexistence of different types of stable equilibria with intertwining attractive basins.« less

Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Paul M

2016-09-01

Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Who is more efficient: Teacher or pedagogical agents?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Tien; Mustapha, Nur Hanani

2017-05-01

The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of pedagogical agent's and teacher's role on students' understanding and motivation in the learning of Electrochemistry. Interactive Multimedia Module with Pedagogical Agents, EC Lab (IMMPA EC Lab) was used in this study. IMMPA EC Lab consists of five subunits in Electrochemistry topic. The research was a non-equivalent control group quasi experimental design involving two treatment groups and one control group. The first treatment group studied Electrochemistry with expert agent (Professor T) while the second treatment group studied Electrochemistry with learning companion agent (Lisa). On the other hand, the control group learned Electrochemistry with their Chemistry teacher using the material in the IMMPA EC Lab. The study was conducted at a secondary science school in the Pasir Puteh district involving 74 form four students. The instruments used in this research were the Electrochemistry achievement tests in the form of pre-test and post-test, IMMPA EC Lab and motivation questionnaire. ANCOVA results found that there was no significant difference among the three groups in post-test. On the other hand, One-way ANOVA test proved that there were significant differences for the post-motivation scores between the control group and the treatment groups. Post motivation mean scores for expert agent treatment group and learning companion treatment group surpassed the control group. The study focus on the impact of pedagogical agents with different roles on students' learning and motivation should be promoted. Various versions of pedagogical agents that fulfil the good characteristics should be designed to enhance students' learning and motivation.

Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

PubMed

Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

2017-08-01

The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

PubMed

van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

2014-04-01

The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version

PubMed Central

Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin

2016-01-01

Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias. PMID:27627114

Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version.

PubMed

Vallejo-Medina, Pablo; Marchal-Bertrand, Laurent; Gómez-Lugo, Mayra; Espada, José Pedro; Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin; Morales, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias.

A Child’s Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts

PubMed Central

Hush, Julia M.; Hancock, Mark J.; Moseley, G. Lorimer; Butler, David S.; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-01

A child’s ‘concept of pain’ refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts’ opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child’s concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child’s concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child’s concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child’s concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8–12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child’s concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child’s concept of pain. PMID:29342976

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

A review of Agent Orange and its associated oncologic risk of genitourinary cancers.

PubMed

Chang, Chrystal; Benson, Michael; Fam, Mina M

2017-11-01

Agent Orange is an herbicide sprayed widely in Vietnam that is linked to a variety of malignancies in as early as 1991.Since then, there has been concern for, and subsequent interest in studying, the potential connection between Agent Orange and other malignancies. In the past 2 decades, there have been significant changes in the opinion of the National Academy of Science regarding Agent Orange and certain genitourinary malignancies. Herein, we review the literature regarding the potential link between Agent Orange and various urological cancers, including prostate, bladder, testicular, and renal cancers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

"America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role…

Will biofilm disassembly agents make it to market?

PubMed

Romero, Diego; Kolter, Roberto

2011-07-01

Nearly 12 years after promising results suggested that antibiofilm agents might be developed into novel therapeutics, there are no such products on the market. In our opinion, the reasons for this have been predominantly economic. Recent developments, however, suggest that there could still be emerging opportunities for the developments of such products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

....313 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS GOVERNMENT ETHICS OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application of...

Care management of the agitation or aggressiveness crisis in patients with TBI. Systematic review of the literature and practice recommendations.

PubMed

Luauté, Jacques; Plantier, David; Wiart, Laurent; Tell, Laurence

2016-02-01

The agitation crisis in the awakening phase after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the most difficult behavioral disorders to alleviate. Current treatment options are heterogeneous and may involve excessive sedation. Practice guidelines are required by professionals in charge of TBI patients. Few reviews were published but those are old and based on expert opinions. The purpose of this work is to propose evidence-based guidelines to treat the agitation crisis. The elaboration of these guidelines followed the procedure validated by the French health authority for good practice recommendations, close to the Prisma statement. Guidelines were elaborated on the basis of a systematic and critical review of the literature. Twenty-eight articles concerning 376 patients were analyzed. Recommendations are: when faced with an agitation crisis, the management strategy implies to search for an underlying factor that should be treated such as pain, acute sepsis, and drug adverse effect (expert opinion). Physical restraints should be discarded when possible (expert opinion). Neuroleptic agent with a marketing authorization can be used in order to obtain a quick sedation so as to protect the patient from himself, closed ones or the healthcare team but the duration should be as short as possible (expert opinion). The efficacy of beta-blockers and antiepileptics with mood regulation effects like carbamazepine and valproate yield the most compelling evidence and should be preferably used when a background regimen is envisioned (grade B for beta-blocker and C for antiepileptics). Neuroleptics, antidepressants, benzodiazepines, buspirone may be prescribed but are considered second-line treatments (expert opinion). This study provides a strategy for treating the agitation crisis based on scientific data and expert opinion. The level of evidence remains low and published data are often old. New studies are essential to validate results from previous studies and test new drugs and

Seeking a second medical opinion: composition, reasons and perceived outcomes in Israel.

PubMed

Shmueli, Liora; Davidovitch, Nadav; Pliskin, Joseph S; Balicer, Ran D; Hekselman, Igal; Greenfield, Geva

2017-12-08

Seeking a second-opinion (SO) is a common clinical practice that can optimize treatment and reduce unnecessary procedures and risks. We aim to characterize the composition of the population of SO seekers, their reasons for seeking a SO and choosing a specific physician, and their perceived outcomes following the SO. A cross-sectional national telephone survey, using a representative sample of the general Israeli population (n = 848, response rate = 62%). SO utilization was defined as seeking an additional clinical opinion from a specialist within the same specialty, for the same medical concern. We describe the characteristics of respondents who obtained SOs, their reasons for doing so and their perceived outcomes: (1) Satisfaction with the SO; (2) Experiencing health improvement after receiving a SO; (3) A difference in the diagnosis or treatment suggested in the first opinions and the second opinions; (4) Preference of the SO over the first one. Most of the respondents who sought a SO (n = 344) were above 60 years old, secular, living with a partner, perceived their income to be above average and their health status to be not so good. For the patients who utilized SOs, orthopedic surgeons were sought out more than any other medical professional.Reasons for seeking a SO included doubts about diagnosis or treatment (38%), search for a sub-specialty expert (19%) and dissatisfaction with communication (19%). SO seekers most frequently chose a specific specialist based on a recommendation from a friend or a relative (33%). About half of the SO seekers also searched for information on the internet. Most of the respondents who sought a SO mentioned that they were satisfied with it (84%), felt health improvement (77%), mentioned that there was a difference between the diagnosis or treatment between the first opinion and the SO (56%) and preferred the SO over the first one (91%). Clinical uncertainty or dissatisfaction with patient-physician communication

A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

Patients' reflections on communication in the second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation.

PubMed

Goldman, Roberta E; Sullivan, Amy; Back, Anthony L; Alexander, Stewart C; Matsuyama, Robin K; Lee, Stephanie J

2009-07-01

The nature of communication between patients and their second-opinion hematology consultants may be very different in these one-time consultations than for those that are within long-term relationships. This study explored patients' perceptions of their second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation to investigate physician-patient communication in malignant disease at a critical juncture in cancer patients' care and decision-making. In-depth telephone interviews with a subset of 20 patients from a larger study, following their subspecialty hematology consultations. Most patients wanted to contribute to the consultation agenda, but were unable to do so. Patients sought expert and honest advice delivered with empathy, though most did not expect the consultant to directly address their emotions. They wanted the physician to apply his/her knowledge to the specifics of their individual cases, and were disappointed and distrustful when physicians cited only general prognostic statistics. In contrast, physicians' consideration of the unique elements of patients' cases, and demonstrations of empathy and respect made patients' feel positively about the encounter, regardless of the prognosis. Patients provided concrete recommendations for physician and patient behaviors to enhance the consultation. Consideration of these recommendations may result in more effective communication and increased patient satisfaction with medical visits.

Impacts of opinion leaders on social contagions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Quan-Hui; Lü, Feng-Mao; Zhang, Qian; Tang, Ming; Zhou, Tao

2018-05-01

Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here, we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find that the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specifically, the existence of opinion leaders reduces the lowest mean degree of the network required for the global behavior adoption and increases the highest mean degree of the network that the global behavior adoption can occur. Besides, the introduction of opinion leaders accelerates the behavior adoption but does not change the adoption order of individuals. The developed theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results. Second, we randomly choose the opinion leaders from the top h % of the highest degree individuals and find an optimal h % for the network with the lowest mean degree that the global behavior adoption can occur. Meanwhile, the influences of opinion leaders on accelerating the adoption of behaviors become less significant and can even be ignored when reducing the value of h % .

OpinionSeer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback.

PubMed

Wu, Yingcai; Wei, Furu; Liu, Shixia; Au, Norman; Cui, Weiwei; Zhou, Hong; Qu, Huamin

2010-01-01

The rapid development of Web technology has resulted in an increasing number of hotel customers sharing their opinions on the hotel services. Effective visual analysis of online customer opinions is needed, as it has a significant impact on building a successful business. In this paper, we present OpinionSeer, an interactive visualization system that could visually analyze a large collection of online hotel customer reviews. The system is built on a new visualization-centric opinion mining technique that considers uncertainty for faithfully modeling and analyzing customer opinions. A new visual representation is developed to convey customer opinions by augmenting well-established scatterplots and radial visualization. To provide multiple-level exploration, we introduce subjective logic to handle and organize subjective opinions with degrees of uncertainty. Several case studies illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of OpinionSeer on analyzing relationships among multiple data dimensions and comparing opinions of different groups. Aside from data on hotel customer feedback, OpinionSeer could also be applied to visually analyze customer opinions on other products or services.

Opinion Formation Models on a Gradient

PubMed Central

Gastner, Michael T.; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

2014-01-01

Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales , not as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation. PMID:25474528

Characteristics of Teachers as Change Agents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Heijden, H. R. M. A.; Geldens, J. J. M.; Beijaard, D.; Popeijus, H. L.

2015-01-01

Teachers play a key role in realizing successful changes in education. Among them are real "change agents" at both classroom and school level. To obtain insights into what characterizes these teachers, an exploratory study has been conducted by interviewing external experts, principals, and teachers (n = 20). An analysis of data resulted…

[The picture of malingered symptom presentation in public opinion].

PubMed

Schlicht, D; Merten, Thomas

2014-09-01

The views held by health experts on certain topics may differ drastically from what appears to be obvious from observations in daily living or public opinion. This is true for a number of myths which continue to haunt the literature with respect to feigned health problems. Such myths tend to ignore or to distort the results of modern research. We performed two pilot studies: first a content analysis of 67 German- and English-language articles from newspapers, magazines or internet journals, and second, a survey on the experience of, and beliefs related to, exaggeration and symptom invention in health care and forensic assessment. A non-representative sample of 15 adults from the general population was interviewed. Most of them reported their own experiences or incidents in their social networks involving feigned health problems. Base rate estimates of malingering in five prototypical contexts ranged between 46 and 67 percent of cases. While the participants showed a preference for an adaptational explanatory model of malingering (selected for about 53% of cases of malingering), journalistic sources often employed pejorative language and combat rhetoric, aiming to arouse indignation or outrage in the readership. The majority of articles were classified to adhere to a criminological explanatory model. While the pilot character of the studies limits their generalisability, the results may be suited to question the validity of some long-held expert beliefs.

Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sei-Hill

This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

Attitudes of Agricultural Experts Toward Genetically Modified Crops: A Case Study in Southwest Iran.

PubMed

Ghanian, Mansour; Ghoochani, Omid M; Kitterlin, Miranda; Jahangiry, Sheida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Van Passel, Steven; Azadi, Hossein

2016-04-01

The production of genetically modified (GM) crops is growing around the world, and with it possible opportunities to combat food insecurity and hunger, as well as solutions to current problems facing conventional agriculture. In this regard the use of GMOs in food and agricultural applications has increased greatly over the past decade. However, the development of GM crops has been a matter of considerable interest and worldwide public controversy. This, in addition to skepticism, has stifled the use of this practice on a large scale in many areas, including Iran. It stands to reason that a greater understanding of this practice could be formed after a review of the existing expert opinions surrounding GM crops. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors that influence agricultural experts' attitudes toward the development of and policies related to GM crops. Using a descriptive correlational research method, questionnaire data was collected from 65 experts from the Agricultural Organization in the Gotvand district in Southwest Iran. Results indicated that agricultural experts were aware of the environmental benefits and possible risks associated with GM crops. The majority of participants agreed that GM crops could improve food security and accelerate rural development, and were proponents of labeling practices for GM crops. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the perception of benefits and attitudes towards GM crops.

Expert and non-expert knowledge in medical practice.

PubMed

Nordin, I

2000-01-01

One problematic aspect of the rationality of medical practice concerns the relation between expert knowledge and non-expert knowledge. In medical practice it is important to match medical knowledge with the self-knowledge of the individual patient. This paper tries to study the problem of such matching by describing a model for technological paradigms and comparing it with an ideal of technological rationality. The professionalised experts tend to base their decisions and actions mostly on medical knowledge while the rationality of medicine also involves just as important elements of the personal evaluation and knowledge of the patients. Since both types of knowledge are necessary for rational decisions, the gap between the expert and the non-expert has to be bridged in some way. A solution to the problem is suggested in terms of pluralism, with the patient as ultimate decision-maker.

Including the online feedback site, Patient Opinion, in the nursing curriculum: Exploratory study.

PubMed

Jones, Ray; Young, Kim; Munro, James; Miller, Heather; Brelsford, Stephanie; Aronsson, Jennie; Goodman, Benny; Peters, Jane

2017-10-01

Globally, universities aim to involve people who use health services to enrich the nursing curriculum for students, but there can be barriers to this involvement. Many also want students to contribute to local communities. Online communication can help connect students to service users to achieve these aims. The online British patient feedback site, Patient Opinion, gathers comments from service users about services and encourages service responses to the comments. To explore the feasibility and acceptability of five ways of including Patient Opinion in the undergraduate nursing curriculum. Five case studies using mixed data collection methods. British University with nursing students across two campuses, accustomed to using webinars, video presentations and social media. Students from different years participated in the five approaches of making use of Patient Opinion in the curriculum; 18 students took part in an online forum to discuss Patient Opinion in the curriculum. We trialled timetabled webinars, video-linked lectures, optional enhanced access for self-study, optional audit of service user comments for two local hospitals, and optional Twitter and Tweetchat. Students discussed the aims and approaches in an online forum. Of the five approaches trialled, webinars seemed effective in ensuring that all nursing students engaged with the topic. Video-linked lectures provided an alternative when timetabling did not allow webinars, but were less interactive. The three optional approaches (Tweetchats, audit exercise, self-directed study) provided opportunities for some students to enhance their learning but students needed guidance. Sending a summary of student reviews of patients' feedback to local hospitals illustrated how students might be agents of change in local health services. Experience from these case studies suggests that webinars followed by use of Patient Opinion preparing for placements may be a sustainable way of embedding feedback sites in the

An Expert Opinion on Advanced Insulin Pump Use in Youth with Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Bode, Bruce W; Kaufman, Francine R; Vint, Nan

2017-03-01

Among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus, the use of insulin pump therapy has increased since its introduction in the early 1980s. Optimal management of type 1 diabetes mellitus depends on sufficient understanding by patients, their families, and healthcare providers on how to use pump technology. The goal for the use of insulin pump therapy should be to advance proficiency over time from the basics taught at the initiation of pump therapy to utilizing advanced settings to obtain optimal glycemic control. However, this goal is often not met, and appropriate understanding of the full features of pump technology can be lacking. The objective of this review is to provide an expert perspective on the advanced features and use of insulin pump therapy, including practical guidelines for the successful use of insulin pump technology, and other considerations specific to patients and healthcare providers.

Application of Delphi expert panel in joint venture projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adnan, H.; Rosman, M. R.; Rashid, Z. Z. Ahmad; Mohamad Yusuwan, N.; Bakhary, N. A.

2018-02-01

This study was conducted with the aim to identify the application of the Delphi Technique in validating findings obtained from questionnaire surveys and interviews done in- depth on the subject of joint venture projects in Malaysia. The Delphi technique aims to achieve a consensus of opinion amongst expert panellist that were selected on the primary factors in JV projects. To achieve research objectives, a progressive series of questions was designed where a selected panel of expert to confirm and validate the final findings. The rationale, benefits, limitations and recommendations for the use of Delphi were given in this study. From the literature review done, twenty-one factors were identified as critical factors to the making any joint venture project successful. Detail information from contractors were obtained by using the questionnaire survey method and forty-three in-depth interviews were carried out. Trust between partners, mutual understanding, partner selection criteria, agreement of contract, objective compatibility, conflict, and commitment were confirmed by the Delphi panel to be the critical success factors besides another fourteen factors which were found to be the Failure Reduction Criteria. Delphi techniques has proven to successfully assist in recognising the main factors and would be beneficial in supplementing the success of joint venture arrangements application for construction projects in Malaysia.

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

PubMed

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving Five-level Triage Form According to the Experts Viewpoint; A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Bazm, Ali; Khorasani, Elahe; Etemadi, Manal; Nadeali, Hadi

2015-01-01

Objectives: This study is a qualitative study being conducted in five stages at Vali-Asr Hospital of Qom in 2013. After two surveys, the experts were interviewed using focus group discussion (FDG) and study was continuing with. Data were analyzed through studying the opinions of the specialized teams’ members, summarizing and classifying the data in qualitative phase. Results: Changes proposed in the triage form communicated by Iran’s emergency department according to the participants’ opinions include informing all the patients in the emergency department of some necessary information. Therefore, three parts of medical and medicinal history, vital signs and level of consciousness were added to the first part of the form and necessary emergency facilities were also added to the third level of triage. Conclusion: Measuring each item added to the general part of the triage form provides more precise diagnosis and more scientific classification, since the level to which the patient belongs should be identified based on medical history, clinical signs and level of consciousness. PMID:27162895

Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

2017-11-01

Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

A Comparison of Defense and Plaintiff Expert Witnesses in Orthopaedic Surgery Malpractice Litigation.

PubMed

Park, Howard Y; Zoller, Stephen D; Sheppard, William L; Hegde, Vishal; Smith, Ryan A; Borthwell, Rachel M; Clarkson, Samuel J; Hamad, Christopher D; Proal, Joshua D; Bernthal, Nicholas M

2018-06-06

According to the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) Standards of Professionalism, the responsible testimony of expert witnesses in orthopaedic surgery malpractice lawsuits is important to the public interest. However, these expert witnesses are recruited and compensated without established standards, and their testimony can potentially sway court opinion, with substantial consequences. The objective of this study was to characterize defense and plaintiff expert orthopaedic surgeon witnesses in orthopaedic surgery malpractice litigation. Utilizing the WestlawNext legal database, defense and plaintiff expert witnesses involved in orthopaedic surgery malpractice lawsuits from 2013 to 2017 were identified. Each witness's subspecialty, mean years of experience, involvement in academic or private practice, fellowship training, and scholarly impact, as measured by the Hirsch index (h-index), were determined through a query of professional profiles, the Scopus database, and a PubMed search. Statistical comparisons were made for each parameter among defense and plaintiff expert witnesses. Between 2013 and 2017, 306 expert medical witnesses for orthopaedic cases were identified; 174 (56.9%) testified on behalf of the plaintiff, and 132 (43.1%) testified on behalf of the defense. Orthopaedic surgeons who identified themselves as general orthopaedists comprised the largest share of expert witnesses on both the plaintiff (n = 61) and defense (n = 25) sides. The plaintiff witnesses averaged 36 years of experience versus 31 years for the defense witnesses (p < 0.001); 26% of the plaintiff witnesses held an academic position versus 43% of the defense witnesses (p = 0.013). Defense witnesses exhibited a higher proportion of fellowship training in comparison to plaintiff expert witnesses (80.5% versus 64.5%, respectively, p = 0.003). The h-index for the plaintiff group was 6.6 versus 9.1 for the defense group (p = 0.04). Two witnesses testified for both the plaintiff

Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

PubMed

Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

2016-11-01

Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The learning continuum of ecology based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramesti, Indah Cahaya; Subali, Bambang

2017-08-01

This study aims at designing learning continuum for developing a curriculum based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material on ecological aspect targeted for students of Primary and Secondary Education. This research is a descriptive research using survey methods. The researchers conducted a census by distributing questionnaires that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements to 147 natural science teachers at junior high school and 134 Biology teachers at senior high school as a population throughout 4 regencies and 1 city in Yogyakarta Special Region.. Data analysis techniques used descriptive analysis. In conclusion, teacher's opinion is influenced by curriculum that exist today. According to the opinions of Natural Science teachers at Junior High School, most of the ecological aspects such as characteristics of biomes, characteristics of ecosystems, characteristics of communities, characteristics of populations, etc. should be taught in grade VII with the level of competence: to understand (C2), while Biology teachers at Senior High School state that the ecological aspect should be taught in class X with the level of competence: to understand (C2), apply (C3) and analyze (C4). Teachers should be a privy in the formulation of the curriculum, so they're not only accept and apply the existing curriculum but also give opinions to improve the curriculum, especially in terms of ecology.

Suitability of Agent Technology for Military Command and Control in the Future Combat System Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-06-01

and Multi-Agent Systems 1 no. 1 (1998): 7-38. [23] K. Sycara, A. Pannu , M. Williamson, and D. Zeng, “Distributed Intelligent Agents,” IEEE Expert 11...services that include support for mobility, security, management, persistence, and naming of agents. [i] K. Sycara, A. Pannu , M. Williamson, and D

Surgeon-industry conflict of interest: survey of opinions regarding industry-sponsored educational events and surgeon teaching: clinical article.

PubMed

DiPaola, Christian P; Dea, Nicolas; Dvorak, Marcel F; Lee, Robert S; Hartig, Dennis; Fisher, Charles G

2014-03-01

Conflict of interest (COI) as it applies to medical education and training has become a source of considerable interest, debate, and regulation in the last decade. Companies often pay surgeons as faculty for educational events and often sponsor and give financial support to major professional society meetings. Professional medical societies, industry, and legislators have attempted to regulate potential COI without consideration for public opinion. The practice of evidence-based medicine requires the inclusion of patient opinion along with best available evidence and expert opinion. The primary goal of this study was to assess the opinion of the general population regarding surgeon-industry COI for education-related events. A Web-based survey was administered, with special emphasis on the surgeon's role in industry-sponsored education and support of professional societies. A survey was constructed to sample opinions on reimbursement, disclosure, and funding sources for educational events. There were 501 completed surveys available for analysis. More than 90% of respondents believed that industry funding for surgeons' tuition and travel for either industry-sponsored or professional society educational meetings would either not affect the quality of care delivered or would cause it to improve. Similar results were generated for opinions on surgeons being paid by industry to teach other surgeons. Moreover, the majority of respondents believed it was ethical or had no opinion if surgeons had such a relationship with industry. Respondents were also generally in favor of educational conferences for surgeons regardless of funding source. Disclosures of a surgeon-industry relationship, especially if it involves specific devices that may be used in their surgery, appears to be important to respondents. The vast majority of respondents in this study do not believe that the quality of their care will be diminished due to industry funding of educational events, for surgeon

Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

Similarities and differences of systematic consensus on disaster mental health services between Japanese and European experts.

PubMed

Fukasawa, Maiko; Suzuki, Yuriko; Nakajima, Satomi; Narisawa, Tomomi; Kim, Yoshiharu

2013-04-01

We recently developed new disaster mental health guidelines in Japan through the Delphi process, a method for building consensus among experts, using as a reference the guidelines developed by The European Network for Traumatic Stress (TENTS) in Europe. We included in our survey 30 items used in the TENTS survey, 20 of which achieved positive consensus in that survey. Here we report on the extent of agreement of 95 Japanese experts on each of these 30 items and examine the reasons for disagreements with the TENTS survey results based on the comments obtained from the participants of our survey. Of the 20 items, 12 also gained consensus in our survey and 1 additional item achieved consensus that did not achieve it in the TENTS survey. Items that did not gain consensus in our survey, but did in the TENTS survey, were recommendations for close collaboration with the media, screening volunteers for their suitability, and withholding formal screening of the affected population. The need for specialist care for specific populations was endorsed in our survey, but not in the TENTS survey. Overall, the opinion of Japanese experts was congruent with that of Western experts, but some guideline amendments would be beneficial. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Effect of clinical vignettes on senior medical students' opinions of climate change.

PubMed

Prasad, Vinay; Thistlethwaite, William; Dale, William

2011-06-01

The consequences of climate change directly threaten human health. Some have argued that, as such, doctors have a special duty to solve climate change. Despite such recommendations, to our knowledge, there has been no previous work documenting physician attitudes on climate change, or the stability of those opinions. We invited 523 fourth-year medical students to a survey asking their opinion on climate change and their opinion regarding one of two fictional medical vignettes. In the vignettes, which are analogous to the climate change issue, students decide whether to discontinue a drug that may be adversely affecting laboratory values. In the climate change question, students are asked whether the United States should take efforts to discontinue the use of fossil fuels. Students are randomized to the order in which they receive the questions. Ninety-five percent (95% CI 89.1%-100%) of students initially asked about climate change feel the United States should take steps to curb carbon dioxide emissions, while only 73% (95% CI 57.5%-89.2%) of students respond similarly if first given an analogous patient vignette. Conversely, in all cases where a fictional medical vignette follows the climate change question, students are more likely to cease using a potentially harmful agent (66% CI 53.5%-71.8% vs. 52% CI 43.3%-67.1%). Our results suggest that student physician attitudes to climate change are mutable. Priming students into "medical mode" may alter their opinions on the scientific merit of nonmedical issues, and may be a vestige of a hidden medical curriculum. Further studies should explore the interrelationship between other sociopolitical beliefs and medical decision making.

Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

Training Laparoscopic Skills at Home: Residents' Opinion of a New Portable Tablet Box Trainer.

PubMed

van der Aa, Jessica E; Schreuder, Henk W R

2016-04-01

To determine residents' opinion about a new portable box trainer, to see if they would be interested in using this for training at home, and to give an overview of the box trainers that could be used at home. An expert opinion study was performed among 27 gynecology residents to determine the value of the portable box trainer in training their laparoscopic skills and the value of using it at home. Their opinions were scored on a 5-point Likert scale. Gynecology residents very much appreciated the portable box trainer in its design, size, visualization, light source, ability to record, and instruments (all median 4). They felt that the portable box trainer would be effective in training laparoscopic skills in general; in training hand-eye coordination, 3D perception, and tying knots (all median 4); and especially in training basic skills (median 5). Almost all residents would use the portable box trainer if they had one at home (median 5). The literature supports the hypothesis that training laparoscopic skills at home using a box trainer may be effective in acquiring and maintaining laparoscopic skills. Training laparoscopic skills at home using a portable box trainer may be of added value in the laparoscopic training of surgical residents. Residents feel positive about using the new portable box trainer that is presented and appreciate the possibility of training at home. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Sznajd model with limited persuasion: competition between high-reputation and hesitant agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno; Murilo Castro de Oliveira, Paulo

2011-11-01

In this work we study a modified version of the two-dimensional Sznajd sociophysics model. In particular, we consider the effects of agents' reputations in the persuasion rules. In other words, a high-reputation group with a common opinion may convince its neighbors with probability p, which induces an increase of the group's reputation. On the other hand, there is always a probability q = 1 - p of the neighbors keeping their opinions, which induces a decrease of the group's reputation. These rules describe a competition between groups with high-reputation and hesitant agents, which makes the full-consensus states (with all spins pointing in one direction) more difficult to reach. As consequences, the usual phase transition does not occur for p < pc ~ 0.69 and the system presents realistic democracy-like situations, where the majority of spins are aligned in a certain direction, for a wide range of parameters.

The impact of competing zealots on opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Gunjan; Swami, Ananthram; Chan, Kevin

2014-02-01

An individual’s opinion on an issue is greatly impacted by others in his or her social network. Most people are open-minded and ready to change their opinion when presented evidence; however, some are zealots or inflexibles, that is, individuals who refuse to change their opinion while staunchly advocating an opinion in hopes of convincing others. Zealotry is present in opinions of significant personal investment, such as political, religious or corporate affiliation; it tends to be less commonplace in opinions involving rumors or fashion trends. In this paper, we examine the effect that zealots have in a population whose opinion dynamics obey the naming game model. We present numerical and analytical results about the number and nature of steady state solutions, demonstrating the existence of a bifurcation in the space of zealot fractions. Our analysis indicates conditions under which a minority zealot opinion ultimately prevails, and conditions under which neither opinion attains a majority. We also present numerical and simulation analysis of finite populations and on networks with partial connectivity.

Glaucoma progression detection: agreement, sensitivity, and specificity of expert visual field evaluation, event analysis, and trend analysis.

PubMed

Antón, Alfonso; Pazos, Marta; Martín, Belén; Navero, José Manuel; Ayala, Miriam Eleonora; Castany, Marta; Martínez, Patricia; Bardavío, Javier

2013-01-01

To assess sensitivity, specificity, and agreement among automated event analysis, automated trend analysis, and expert evaluation to detect glaucoma progression. This was a prospective study that included 37 eyes with a follow-up of 36 months. All had glaucomatous disks and fields and performed reliable visual fields every 6 months. Each series of fields was assessed with 3 different methods: subjective assessment by 2 independent teams of glaucoma experts, glaucoma/guided progression analysis (GPA) event analysis, and GPA (visual field index-based) trend analysis. Kappa agreement coefficient between methods and sensitivity and specificity for each method using expert opinion as gold standard were calculated. The incidence of glaucoma progression was 16% to 18% in 3 years but only 3 cases showed progression with all 3 methods. Kappa agreement coefficient was high (k=0.82) between subjective expert assessment and GPA event analysis, and only moderate between these two and GPA trend analysis (k=0.57). Sensitivity and specificity for GPA event and GPA trend analysis were 71% and 96%, and 57% and 93%, respectively. The 3 methods detected similar numbers of progressing cases. The GPA event analysis and expert subjective assessment showed high agreement between them and moderate agreement with GPA trend analysis. In a period of 3 years, both methods of GPA analysis offered high specificity, event analysis showed 83% sensitivity, and trend analysis had a 66% sensitivity.

International survey on the management of Chiari 1 malformation and syringomyelia: evolving worldwide opinions.

PubMed

Singhal, Ash; Cheong, Alexander; Steinbok, Paul

2018-03-12

In 2003, pediatric neurosurgeons were surveyed under the auspices of the education committee of the International Society for Pediatric Neurosurgery (ISPN) to determine prevailing opinions regarding the management of Chiari I malformation (C1M) with and without associated syringomyelia. In the ensuing years, there has been further information from multiple C1M studies, with regards to indications, success rates of different surgical interventions, and complications. The purpose of this study was to re-evaluate current opinions and practices in pediatric C1M. Pediatric neurosurgeons worldwide were surveyed, using an e-mail list provided by the ISPN communication committee chairperson. Respondents were given scenarios similar to the 2003 C1M survey in order to determine opinions regarding whether to surgically intervene, and if so, with which operations. Of 300 surveys electronically distributed, 122 responses were received (40.6% response rate)-an improvement over the 30.8% response rate in 2003. Pediatric neurosurgeons from 34 different countries responded. There was broad consensus that non-operative management is appropriate in asymptomatic C1M (> 90%) as well as asymptomatic C1M with a small syrinx (> 65%). With a large syrinx, a majority (almost 80%) recommended surgical intervention. Scoliotic patients with CIM were generally offered surgery only when there was a large syrinx. There has been a shift in the surgical management over the past decade, with a bone-only decompression now being offered more commonly. There remains, however, great variability in the operation offered. This survey, with a relatively strong response rate, and with broad geographic representation, summarizes current worldwide expert opinion regarding management of pediatric C1M. Asymptomatic C1M and C1M with a small syrinx are generally managed non-operatively. When an operation is indicated, there has been a shift towards less invasive surgical approaches.

Ranking experts' preferences regarding measures and methods of assessment of welfare in dairy herds using Adaptive Conjoint Analysis.