Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

2012-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

EPA Science Inventory

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

Relating health and climate impacts to grid-scale emissions using adjoint sensitivity modeling for the Climate and Clean Air Coalition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henze, D. K.; Lacey, F.; Seltzer, M.; Vallack, H.; Kuylenstierna, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Anenberg, S.; Sasser, E.; Lee, C. J.; Martin, R.

2013-12-01

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) was initiated in 2012 to develop, understand and promote measures to reduce short lived climate forcers such as aerosol, ozone and methane. The Coalition now includes over 30 nations, and as a service to these nations is committed to providing a decision support toolkit that allows member nations to explore the benefits of a range of emissions mitigation measures in terms of the combined impacts on air quality and climate and so help in the development of their National Action Plans. Here we will present recent modeling work to support the development of the CCAC National Action Plans toolkit. Adjoint sensitivity analysis is presented as a means of efficiently relating air quality, climate and crop impacts back to changes in emissions from each species, sector and location at the grid-scale resolution of typical global air quality model applications. The GEOS-Chem adjoint model is used to estimate the damages per ton of emissions of PM2.5 related mortality, the impacts of ozone precursors on crops and ozone-related health effects, and the combined impacts of these species on regional surface temperature changes. We show how the benefits-per-emission vary spatially as a function of the surrounding environment, and how this impacts the overall benefit of sector-specific control strategies. We present initial findings for Bangladesh, as well as Mexico, Ghana and Colombia, some of the first countries to join the CCAC, and discuss general issues related to adjoint-based metrics for quantifying air quality and climate co-benefits.

Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

2003-12-01

Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ) PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project will develop model-estimated impacts of global climate changes on ozone and particulate matter (PM) in direct support of the USEPA Global Change Research Program's (GCRP) national air quality assessment. EPA's urban/reg...

Modeling the impact of solid noise barriers on near road air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies based on field measurements, wind tunnel experiments, and controlled tracer gas releases indicate that solid, roadside noise barriers can lead to reductions in downwind near-road air pollutant concentrations. A tracer gas study showed that a solid barrier reduced pollutant concentrations as much as 80% next to the barrier relative to an open area under unstable meteorological conditions, which corresponds to typical daytime conditions when residents living or children going to school near roadways are most likely to be exposed to traffic emissions. The data from this tracer gas study and a wind tunnel simulation were used to develop a model to describe dispersion of traffic emissions near a highway in the presence of a solid noise barrier. The model is used to interpret real-world data collected during a field study conducted in a complex urban environment next to a large highway in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. We show that the analysis of the data with the model yields useful information on the emission factors and the mitigation impact of the barrier on near-road air quality. The estimated emission factors for the four species, ultrafine particles, CO, NO2, and black carbon, are consistent with data cited in the literature. The results suggest that the model accounted for reductions in pollutant concentrations from a 4.5 m high noise barrier, ranging from 40% next to the barrier to 10% at 300 m from the barrier. Highlights • Developed a dispersion model a

Reduced-form air quality modeling for community-scale ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Transportation plays an important role in modern society, but its impact on air quality has been shown to have significant adverse effects on public health. Numerous reviews (HEI, CDC, WHO) summarizing findings of hundreds of studies conducted mainly in the last decade, conclude that exposures to traffic emissions near roads are a public health concern. The Community LINE Source Model (C-LINE) is a web-based model designed to inform the community user of local air quality impacts due to roadway vehicles in their region of interest using a simplified modeling approach. Reduced-form air quality modeling is a useful tool for examining what-if scenarios of changes in emissions, such as those due to changes in traffic volume, fleet mix, or vehicle speed. Examining various scenarios of air quality impacts in this way can identify potentially at-risk populations located near roadways, and the effects that a change in traffic activity may have on them. C-LINE computes dispersion of primary mobile source pollutants using meteorological conditions for the region of interest and computes air-quality concentrations corresponding to these selected conditions. C-LINE functionality has been expanded to model emissions from port-related activities (e.g. ships, trucks, cranes, etc.) in a reduced-form modeling system for local-scale near-port air quality analysis. This presentation describes the Community modeling tools C-LINE and C-PORT that are intended to be used by local gove

Using statistical models to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent E. P.; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-03-01

Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, the computing cost of such methods requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training data set from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for eight regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows selecting the members of the EuroCordex ensemble of regional climate projections that should be used in priority for future air quality projections (CanESM2/RCA4; CNRM-CM5-LR/RCA4 and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0/RCA4 and MPI-ESM-LR/CCLM following the EuroCordex terminology). After having tested the validity of the statistical model in predictive mode, we can provide ranges of uncertainty attributed to the spread of the regional climate projection ensemble by the end of the century (2071-2100) for the RCP8.5. In the three regions where the statistical model of the impact of climate change on PM2.5 offers satisfactory performances, we find a climate benefit (a decrease of PM2.5 concentrations under future climate) of -1.08 (±0.21), -1.03 (±0.32), -0.83 (±0.14) µg m-3, for respectively Eastern Europe, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy. In the British-Irish Isles, Scandinavia, France, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, the statistical model is not considered skillful enough to draw any conclusion for PM2.5. In Eastern Europe, France, the Iberian Peninsula, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy, the statistical model of the impact of climate change

Air pollution: impact and prevention.

PubMed

Sierra-Vargas, Martha Patricia; Teran, Luis M

2012-10-01

Air pollution is becoming a major health problem that affects millions of people worldwide. In support of this observation, the World Health Organization estimates that every year, 2.4 million people die because of the effects of air pollution on health. Mitigation strategies such as changes in diesel engine technology could result in fewer premature mortalities, as suggested by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This review: (i) discusses the impact of air pollution on respiratory disease; (ii) provides evidence that reducing air pollution may have a positive impact on the prevention of disease; and (iii) demonstrates the impact concerted polices may have on population health when governments take actions to reduce air pollution. © 2012 The Authors. Respirology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Experiments with data assimilation in comprehensive air quality models: Impacts on model predictions and observation requirements (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.

2009-12-01

Emerging regional scale atmospheric simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions. Sophisticated air quality modeling systems are needed to develop effective abatement strategies that focus on simultaneously controlling multiple criteria pollutants as well as use in providing short term air quality forecasts. In recent years the applications of such models is continuously being extended to address atmospheric pollution phenomenon from local to hemispheric spatial scales over time scales ranging from episodic to annual. The need to represent interactions between physical and chemical atmospheric processes occurring at these disparate spatial and temporal scales requires the use of observation data beyond traditional in-situ networks so that the model simulations can be reasonably constrained. Preliminary applications of assimilation of remote sensing and aloft observations within a comprehensive regional scale atmospheric chemistry-transport modeling system will be presented: (1) A methodology is developed to assimilate MODIS aerosol optical depths in the model to represent the impacts long-range transport associated with the summer 2004 Alaskan fires on surface-level regional fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across the Eastern U.S. The episodic impact of this pollution transport event on PM2.5 concentrations over the eastern U.S. during mid-July 2004, is quantified through the complementary use of the model with remotely-sensed, aloft, and surface measurements; (2) Simple nudging experiments with limited aloft measurements are performed to identify uncertainties in model representations of physical processes and assess the potential use of such measurements in improving the predictive capability of atmospheric chemistry-transport models. The results from these early applications will be discussed in context of uncertainties in the model and in the remote sensing

Impacts of Lowered Urban Air Temperatures on Precursor Emission and Ozone Air Quality.

PubMed

Taha, Haider; Konopacki, Steven; Akbari, Hashem

1998-09-01

Meteorological, photochemical, building-energy, and power plant simulations were performed to assess the possible precursor emission and ozone air quality impacts of decreased air temperatures that could result from implementing the "cool communities" concept in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Two pathways are considered. In the direct pathway, a reduction in cooling energy use translates into reduced demand for generation capacity and, thus, reduced precursor emissions from electric utility power plants. In the indirect pathway, reduced air temperatures can slow the atmospheric production of ozone as well as precursor emission from anthropogenic and biogenic sources. The simulations suggest small impacts on emissions following implementation of cool communities in the SoCAB. In summer, for example, there can be reductions of up to 3% in NO x emissions from in-basin power plants. The photochemical simulations suggest that the air quality impacts of these direct emission reductions are small. However, the indirect atmospheric effects of cool communities can be significant. For example, ozone peak concentrations can decrease by up to 11% in summer and population-weighted exceedance exposure to ozone above the California and National Ambient Air Quality Standards can decrease by up to 11 and 17%, respectively. The modeling suggests that if these strategies are combined with others, such as mobile-source emission control, the improvements in ozone air quality can be substantial.

Impact of surface ozone interactions on indoor air chemistry: A modeling study.

PubMed

Kruza, M; Lewis, A C; Morrison, G C; Carslaw, N

2017-09-01

An INdoor air Detailed Chemical Model was developed to investigate the impact of ozone reactions with indoor surfaces (including occupants), on indoor air chemistry in simulated apartments subject to ambient air pollution. The results are consistent with experimental studies showing that approximately 80% of ozone indoors is lost through deposition to surfaces. The human body removes ozone most effectively from indoor air per square meter of surface, but the most significant surfaces for C 6 -C 10 aldehyde formation are soft furniture and painted walls owing to their large internal surfaces. Mixing ratios of between 8 and 11 ppb of C 6 -C 10 aldehydes are predicted to form in apartments in various locations in summer, the highest values are when ozone concentrations are enhanced outdoors. The most important aldehyde formed indoors is predicted to be nonanal (5-7 ppb), driven by oxidation-derived emissions from painted walls. In addition, ozone-derived emissions from human skin were estimated for a small bedroom at nighttime with concentrations of nonanal, decanal, and 4-oxopentanal predicted to be 0.5, 0.7, and 0.7 ppb, respectively. A detailed chemical analysis shows that ozone-derived surface aldehyde emissions from materials and people change chemical processing indoors, through enhanced formation of nitrated organic compounds and decreased levels of oxidants. © 2017 The Authors. Indoor Air Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of recirculating industrial air on aircraft painting operations.

PubMed

LaPuma, P T; Bolch, W E

1999-10-01

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments resulted in new environmental regulations for hazardous air pollutants. Industries such as painting facilities may have to treat large volumes of air, which increases the cost of an air control system. Recirculating a portion of the air back into the facility is an option to reduce the amount of air to be treated. The authors of this study developed a computer model written in Microsoft Excel 97 to analyze the impact of recirculation on worker safety and compliance costs. The model has a chemical database with over 1300 chemicals. The model will predict indoor air concentrations using mass balance calculations and results are compared to occupational exposure limits. A case study is performed on a C-130 aircraft painting facility at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The model predicts strontium chromate concentrations found in primer paints will reach 1000 times the exposure limit. Strontium chromate and other solid particulates are nearly unaffected by recirculation because the air is filtered during recirculation. The next highest chemical, hexamethylene diisocyanate, increases from 2.6 to 10.5 times the exposure limit at 0 percent and 75 percent recirculation, respectively. Due to the level of respiratory protection required for the strontium chromate, workers are well protected from the modest increases in concentrations caused by recirculating 75 percent of the air. The initial cost of an air control system is $4.5 million with no recirculation and $1.8 million at 75 percent recirculation. The model is an excellent tool to evaluate air control options with a focus on worker safety. In the case study, the model highlights strontium chromate primers as good candidates for substitution. The model shows that recirculating 75 percent of the air at the Hill painting facility has a negligible impact on safety and could save $2.7 million on the initial expenses of a thermal treatment system.

Urban airshed modeling of air quality impacts of alternative transportation fuel use in Los Angeles and Atlanta

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This report documents a photochemical modeling study of the potential impacts on air quality of future emissions from alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The main objective of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in supporting this study is ...

Maximizing sinter plant operating flexibility through emissions trading and air modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schewe, G.J.; Wagner, J.A.; Heron, T.

1998-12-31

This paper provides details on the dispersion modeling analysis performed to demonstrate air quality impacts associated with an emission trading scheme for a sintering operation in Youngstown, Ohio. The emission trade was proposed to allow the sinter plant to expand its current allowable sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions while being offset with SO{sub 2} emissions from boilers at a nearby shutdown steel mill. While the emission trade itself was feasible and the emissions required for the offset were available (the boiler shutdown and their subsequent SO{sub 2} emission credits were never claimed, banked, or used elsewhere), the second criteria for determiningmore » compliance was a demonstration of minimal air quality impact. The air analysis combined the increased ambient SO{sub 2} concentrations of the relaxed sinter plant emissions with the offsetting air quality of the shutdown boilers to yield the net air quality impacts. To test this net air impact, dispersion modeling was performed treating the sinter plant SO{sub 2} emissions as positive and the shutdown boiler SO{sub 2} emissions as negative. The results of the modeling indicated that the ambient air concentrations due to the proposed emissions increase will be offset by the nearby boiler emissions to levels acceptable under EPA`s offset policy Level 2 significant impact concentrations. Therefore, the dispersion modeling demonstrated that the emission trading scheme would not result in significant air quality impacts and maximum operating flexibility was provided to the sintering facility.« less

Exploring Air-Climate-Energy Impacts with GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change and energy (ACE) goals. My research focuseson integration of impact factors in GCAM-USA and a...

Urban-rural variations in air quality and health impacts in northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, A. N.; Holloway, T.; Fiore, A. M.; Kinney, P.; DeFries, R. S.; Kiesewetter, G.; Heyes, C.

2017-12-01

Ambient air pollution in India is a severe problem, contributing to negative health impacts and early death. Ground-based monitors often used to quantify health impacts are often located in urban regions, however approximately 70% of India's population resides in rural areas. We use high-resolution concentrations from the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over densely-populated northern India to estimate air quality and health impacts due to anthropogenic emission sectors separately for urban and rural regions. Modeled concentrations inform relative risk calculations and exposure estimates as performed in the Global Burden of Disease. Anthropogenic emissions from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model following version 5a of the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants project gridding structure are updated to reflect urban- and rural-specific activity information for transportation and residential combustion, and industrial and electrical generating unit location and magnitude information. We estimate 314,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 304,000—323,000) and 58,000 (CI: 39,000—70,000) adults (25 years or older) die prematurely each year from PM2.5 and O3 respectively in northern India, with the greatest impacts along the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Using urban and rural population distributions, we estimate that the majority of premature deaths resulting from PM2.5 and O3 are in rural (292,000) as opposed to urban (79,000) regions. These findings indicate the need for designing monitoring networks and ground-based health studies in rural areas of India to more accurately quantify the true health implications of ambient air pollution, in addition to supporting model evaluation. Using this urban-versus-rural emissions framework, we are assessing anthropogenic contributions to regional air quality and health impacts, and

A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

Drop impact on a solid surface at reduced air pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langley, Kenneth; Li, E. Q.; Tian, Y. S.; Hicks, P. D.; Thoroddsen, S. T.

2017-11-01

When a drop approaches a solid surface at atmospheric pressure, the lubrication pressure within the air forms a dimple in the bottom of the drop resulting in the entrainment of an air disc upon impact. Reducing the ambient air pressure below atmospheric has been shown to suppress splashing and the compression of the intervening air could be significant on the air disc formation; however, to date there have been no experimental studies showing how the entrainment of the air disc is affected by reducing the ambient pressure. Using ultra-high-speed interferometry, at up to 5 Mfps, we investigate droplet impacts onto dry solid surfaces in reduced ambient air pressures with particular interest in what happens as rarified gas effects become important, i.e. when the thickness of the air layer is of the same magnitude as the mean free path of the air molecules. Experimental data will be presented showing novel phenomena and comparisons will be drawn with theoretical models from the literature.

Cloud processing of gases and aerosols in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model: Impacts of extended chemistry

EPA Science Inventory

Clouds and fogs can significantly impact the concentration and distribution of atmospheric gases and aerosols through chemistry, scavenging, and transport. This presentation summarizes the representation of cloud processes in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling ...

Impacts of Residential Biofuel Emissions on Air Quality and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Storelvmo, T.

2016-12-01

The residential biofuel sector is defined as fuelwood, agricultural residues and dung used for household cooking and heating. Aerosol emissions from this human activity play an important role affecting local, regional and global air quality, climate and public health. However, there are only few studies available that evaluate the net impacts and large uncertainties persist. Here we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM v5.3) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2, to quantify the impacts of cook-stove biofuel emissions on air quality and climate. The model incorporates a novel advanced treatment of black carbon (BC) effects on mixed-phase/ice clouds. We update the global anthropogenic emission inventory in CAM v5.3 to a state-of-the-art emission inventory from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies integrated assessment model. Global in-situ and aircraft campaign observations for BC and organic carbon are used to evaluate and validate the model performance. Sensitivity simulations are employed to assess the impacts of residential biofuel emissions on regional and global direct and indirect radiative forcings in the contemporary world. We focus the analyses on several key regions including India, China and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Impact of Asian Dust on Climate and Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Tan, Qian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin

2010-01-01

Dust generated from Asian permanent desert and desertification areas can be efficiently transported around the globe, making significant radiative impact through their absorbing and scattering solar radiation and through their deposition on snow and ice to modify the surface albedo. Asian dust is also a major concern of surface air quality not only in the source and immediate downwind regions but also areas thousands of miles away across the Pacific. We present here a global model, GOCART, analysis of data from satellite remote sensing instrument (MODIS, MISR, CALIPSO, OMI) and other observations on Asian dust sources, transport, and deposition, and use the model to assess the Asian dust impact on global climate and air quality.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

Impacts of Energy Sector Emissions on PM2.5 Air Quality in Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, A. N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Heyes, C.; Holloway, T.

2015-12-01

India experiences high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and several Indian cities currently rank among the world's most polluted cities. With ongoing urbanization and a growing economy, emissions from different energy sectors remain major contributors to air pollution in India. Emission sectors impact ambient air quality differently due to spatial distribution (typical urban vs. typical rural sources) as well as source height characteristics (low-level vs. high stack sources). This study aims to assess the impacts of emissions from three distinct energy sectors—transportation, domestic, and electricity—on ambient PM2.5­­ in northern India using an advanced air quality analysis framework based on the U.S. EPA Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Present air quality conditions are simulated using 2010 emissions from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model. Modeled PM2.5 concentrations are compared with satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2010. Energy sector emissions impacts on future (2030) PM2.5 are evaluated with three sensitivity simulations, assuming maximum feasible reduction technologies for either transportation, domestic, or electricity sectors. These simulations are compared with a business as usual 2030 simulation to assess relative sectoral impacts spatially and temporally. CMAQ is modeled at 12km by 12km and include biogenic emissions from the Community Land Model coupled with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols in Nature (CLM-MEGAN), biomass burning emissions from the Global Fires Emissions Database (GFED), and ERA-Interim meteorology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for 2010 to quantify the impact of modified anthropogenic emissions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Energy sector emissions analysis supports decision-making to improve future air quality and public health in

Modeling study of biomass burning plumes and their impact on urban air quality; a case study of Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuchiara, G. C.; Rappenglück, B.; Rubio, M. A.; Lissi, E.; Gramsch, E.; Garreaud, R. D.

2017-10-01

On January 4, 2014, during the summer period in South America, an intense forest and dry pasture wildfire occurred nearby the city of Santiago de Chile. On that day the biomass-burning plume was transported by low-intensity winds towards the metropolitan area of Santiago and impacted the concentration of pollutants in this region. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is implemented to investigate the biomass-burning plume associated with these wildfires nearby Santiago, which impacted the ground-level ozone concentration and exacerbated Santiago's air quality. Meteorological variables simulated by WRF/Chem are compared against surface and radiosonde observations, and the results show that the model reproduces fairly well the observed wind speed, wind direction air temperature and relative humidity for the case studied. Based on an analysis of the transport of an inert tracer released over the locations, and at the time the wildfires were captured by the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the model reproduced reasonably well the transport of biomass burning plume towards the city of Santiago de Chile within a time delay of two hours as observed in ceilometer data. A six day air quality simulation was performed: the first three days were used to validate the anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and the last three days (during and after the wildfire event) to analyze the performance of WRF/Chem plume-rise model within FINNv1 fire emission estimations. The model presented a satisfactory performance on the first days of the simulation when contrasted against data from the well-established air quality network over the city of Santiago de Chile. These days represent the urban air quality base case for Santiago de Chile unimpacted by fire emissions. However, for the last three simulation days, which were impacted by the fire emissions, the statistical indices showed a decrease in

Modeling the impact of solid noise barriers on near road air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkatram, Akula; Isakov, Vlad; Deshmukh, Parikshit; Baldauf, Richard

2016-09-01

Studies based on field measurements, wind tunnel experiments, and controlled tracer gas releases indicate that solid, roadside noise barriers can lead to reductions in downwind near-road air pollutant concentrations. A tracer gas study showed that a solid barrier reduced pollutant concentrations as much as 80% next to the barrier relative to an open area under unstable meteorological conditions, which corresponds to typical daytime conditions when residents living or children going to school near roadways are most likely to be exposed to traffic emissions. The data from this tracer gas study and a wind tunnel simulation were used to develop a model to describe dispersion of traffic emissions near a highway in the presence of a solid noise barrier. The model is used to interpret real-world data collected during a field study conducted in a complex urban environment next to a large highway in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. We show that the analysis of the data with the model yields useful information on the emission factors and the mitigation impact of the barrier on near-road air quality. The estimated emission factors for the four species, ultrafine particles, CO, NO2, and black carbon, are consistent with data cited in the literature. The results suggest that the model accounted for reductions in pollutant concentrations from a 4.5 m high noise barrier, ranging from 40% next to the barrier to 10% at 300 m from the barrier.

A comparison of methods for the assessment of odor impacts on air quality: Field inspection (VDI 3940) and the air dispersion model CALPUFF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzato, Laura; Barausse, Alberto; Mantovani, Alice; Pittarello, Alberto; Benzo, Maurizio; Palmeri, Luca

2012-12-01

Unpleasant odors are a major cause of public complaints concerning air quality and represent a growing social problem in industrialized countries. However, the assessment of odor pollution is still regarded as a difficult task, because olfactory nuisance can be caused by many different chemical compounds, often found in hard-to-detect concentrations, and the perception of odors is influenced by subjective thresholds; moreover, the impact of odor sources on air quality is mediated by complex atmospheric dispersion processes. The development of standardized assessment approaches to odor pollution and proper international regulatory tools are urgently needed. In particular, comparisons of the methodologies commonly used nowadays to assess odor impacts on air quality are required. Here, we assess the olfactory nuisance caused by an anaerobic treatment plant for municipal solid waste by means of two alternative techniques: the field inspection procedure and the atmospheric dispersion model CALPUFF. Our goal was to compare rigorously their estimates of odor nuisance, both qualitatively (spatial extent of odor impact) and quantitatively (intensity of odor nuisance). To define the impact of odors, we referred to the German standards, based on the frequency of odor episodes in terms of odor hours. We report a satisfying, although not perfect agreement between the estimates provided by the two techniques. For example, they assessed similar spatial extents of odor pollution, but different frequencies of odor episodes in locations where the odor nuisance was highest. The comparison highlights strengths and weaknesses for both approaches. CALPUFF is a cheaper methodology which can be used predictively, but fugitive emissions are difficult to model reliably, because of uncertainty regarding timing, location and emission rate. Field inspection takes into account the role of human perception, but unlike the model it does not always characterize precisely the extent of the odor

Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

2017-11-01

This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

Smart climate ensemble exploring approaches: the example of climate impacts on air pollution in Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-04-01

Because of its sensitivity to weather patterns, climate change will have an impact on air pollution so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, at present, such impact assessment lack multi-model ensemble approaches to address uncertainties because of the substantial computing cost. Therefore, as a preliminary step towards exploring large climate ensembles with air quality models, we developed an ensemble exploration technique in order to point out the climate models that should be investigated in priority. By using a training dataset from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to estimate future air pollutant concentrations. Applying this statistical model to the whole EuroCordex ensemble of climate projection, we find a climate penalty for six subregions out of eight (Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). On the contrary, a climate benefit for PM2.5 was identified for three regions (Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). The uncertainty of this statistical model challenges limits however the confidence we can attribute to associated quantitative projections. This technique allows however selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections to propose an adequate coverage of uncertainties. We are thereby proposing a smart ensemble exploration strategy that can also be used for other impacts studies beyond air quality.

Modeling the weather impact on aviation in a global air traffic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Himmelsbach, S.; Hauf, T.; Rokitansky, C. H.

2009-09-01

Weather has a strong impact on aviation safety and efficiency. For a better understanding of that impact, especially of thunderstorms and similar other severe hazards, we pursued a modeling approach. We used the detailed simulation software (NAVSIM) of worldwide air traffic, developed by Rokitansky [Eurocontrol, 2005] and implemented a specific weather module. NAVSIM models each aircraft with its specific performance characteristics separately along preplanned and prescribed routes. The specific weather module in its current version simulates a thunderstorm as an impenetrable 3D object, which forces an aircraft to circumvent the latter. We refer to that object in general terms as a weather object. The Cb-weather object, as a specific weather object, is a heuristic model of a real thunderstorm, with its characteristics based on actually observed satellite and precipitation radar data. It is comprised of an upper volume, mostly the anvil, and a bottom volume, the up- and downdrafts and the lower outflow area [Tafferner and Forster, 2009; Kober and Tafferner 2009; Zinner et al, 2008]. The Cb-weather object is already implemented in NAVSIM, other weather objects like icing and turbulence will follow. This combination of NAVSIM with a weather object allows a detailed investigation of situations where conflicts exist between planned flight routes and adverse weather. The first objective is to simulate the observed circum-navigation in NAVSIM. Real occurring routes will be compared with simulated ones. Once this has successfully completed, NAVSIM offers a platform to assess existing rules and develop more efficient strategies to cope with adverse weather. An overview will be given over the implementation status of weather objects within NAVSIM and first results will be presented. Cb-object data provision by A. Tafferner, C. Forster, T. Zinner, K. Kober, M. Hagen (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen) is greatly acknowledged. References: Eurocontrol, VDL Mode 2 Capacity Analysis through

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated

Using RAND’s Military Career Model To Evaluate The Impact Of Institutional Requirements On The Air Force Space Officer Career Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

Using RAND’s Military Career Model to Evaluate the Impact of Institutional Requirements on the Air Force Space Officer Career Field...Military Career Model (MCM), a detailed personnel simulation model, to evaluate the impact of changes to IRs on the space officer (13S) career field. The...as well. We recommend that future work evaluate the impact of IRs on multiple career fields to determine which career fields have the most to gain

Regional and Global Impacts of Megacity Air Pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Renyi

2014-05-01

Air quality has deteriorated in many megacities of China because of their rapid economic developments. For example, as the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. In addition to the impacts of aerosols on air chemistry, visibility, and human health, intense aerosol pollution is believed to exert profound impacts on the regional and global atmosphere and climate. In the first part of the talk, perspectives are provided on formation and transformation of haze in China. In the second part the long-term impacts of aerosols on precipitation and lightning over a megacity area in China will be presented, on the basis of atmospheric observations and simulations using a cloud-resolving WRF model. Our results reveal that elevated aerosol loading suppresses light and moderate precipitation, but enhances heavy precipitation. Also, we demonstrate climatically modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over past three decades, using a novel hierarchical modeling approach and observational analysis. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

GIS Modeling of Air Toxics Releases from TRI-Reporting and Non-TRI-Reporting Facilities: Impacts for Environmental Justice

PubMed Central

Dolinoy, Dana C.; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2004-01-01

The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) requires facilities with 10 or more full-time employees that process > 25,000 pounds in aggregate or use > 10,000 pounds of any one TRI chemical to report releases annually. However, little is known about releases from non-TRI-reporting facilities, nor has attention been given to the very localized equity impacts associated with air toxics releases. Using geographic information systems and industrial source complex dispersion modeling, we developed methods for characterizing air releases from TRI-reporting as well as non-TRI-reporting facilities at four levels of geographic resolution. We characterized the spatial distribution and concentration of air releases from one representative industry in Durham County, North Carolina (USA). Inclusive modeling of all facilities rather than modeling of TRI sites alone significantly alters the magnitude and spatial distribution of modeled air concentrations. Modeling exposure receptors at more refined levels of geographic resolution reveals localized, neighborhood-level exposure hot spots that are not apparent at coarser geographic scales. Multivariate analysis indicates that inclusive facility modeling at fine levels of geographic resolution reveals exposure disparities by income and race. These new methods significantly enhance the ability to model air toxics, perform equity analysis, and clarify conflicts in the literature regarding environmental justice findings. This work has substantial implications for how to structure TRI reporting requirements, as well as methods and types of analysis that will successfully elucidate the spatial distribution of exposure potentials across geographic, income, and racial lines. PMID:15579419

IMPACT OF AN OZONE GENERATOR AIR CLEANER ON STYRENE CONCENTRATIONS IN AN INDOOR AIR QUALITY RESEARCH CHAMBER

EPA Science Inventory

The paper gives results of an investigation of the impact of an ozone generator air cleaner on vapor-phase styrene concentrations in a full-scale indoor air quality test chamber. The time history of the concentrations of styrene and ozone is well predicted by a simulation model u...

Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P. L.; Knowlton, K.; Rosenthal, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2003-12-01

Outdoor air pollution remains a serious public health problem in cities throughout the world. In the US, despite considerable progress in reducing emissions over the past 30 years, as many as 50,000 premature deaths each year have been attributed to airborne particulate matter alone. Tropospheric ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality and hospitalization rates, and with a variety of related respiratory problems. Weather plays an important role in the transport and transformation of air pollution. In particular, a warming climate is likely to promote the atmospheric reactions that are responsible for ozone and secondary aerosol production, as well as increasing emissions of many of their volatile precursors. Increasingly, efforts to address urban air pollution problems throughout the world will be complicated by trends and variability in climate. The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) is developing and applying tools for integrated assessment of health impacts from air pollution and heat associated with climate and land-use changes in the New York City metropolitan region. Global climate change is modeled over the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GCM). Meteorological fields are downscaled to a 36 km grid over the eastern US using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model. MM5 results are then used as input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality, with emissions based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). To date, simulations have been performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2050s. An evaluation of the present-day climate and air quality predictions indicates that the modeling system largely captures the observed climate-ozone system. Analysis of future-year predictions

The impact of changing technology on the demand for air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

1978-01-01

Demand models for air transportation that are sensitive to the impact of changing technology were developed. The models are responsive to potential changes in technology, and to changing economic, social, and political factors as well. In addition to anticipating the wide differences in the factors influencing the demand for long haul and short haul air travel, the models were designed to clearly distinguish among the unique features of these markets.

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying

Impacts of Air Pollution on Health in Eastern China: Implications for future air pollution and energy policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Mauzerall, D.

2004-12-01

Our objective is to establish the link between energy consumption and technologies, air pollution and resulting impacts on public health in eastern China. We quantify the impacts that air pollution in the Shandong region of eastern China has on public health in 2000 and quantify the benefits in improved air quality and health that could be obtained by 2020, relative to business-as-usual, through the implementation of new energy technology. We first develop a highly-resolved emission inventory for the year 2000 for the Shandong region of China including emissions from large point, area, mobile and biogenic sources. We use the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE) to process emissions from this inventory for use in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) which we drive with the NCAR/PSU MM5 meso-scale meteorology model. We evaluate the inventory by comparing CMAQ results with available measurements of PM10 and SO2 from air pollution indices (APIs) reported in various Chinese municipalities during 2002-2004. We use epidemiological dose-response functions to quantify health impacts and values of a statistical life (VSL) and years-of-life-lost (YLL) to establish a range for the monetary value of these impacts. To examine health impacts and their monetary value, we focus explicitly on Zaozhuang, a coal-intensive city in the Shandong region of eastern China, and quantify the mortalities and morbidities resulting from air pollutants emitted from this city in 2000, and in 2020 using business-as-usual, best-available control technology, and advanced coal gasification technology scenarios. In all scenarios most health damages arise from exposure to particulate matter. We find that total health damages due to year 2000 anthropogenic emissions from Zaozhuang accounted for 4-10% of its GDP. If all health damages resulting from coal use were internalized in the market price of coal, the year 2000 price would have doubled. With no new

Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

2013-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Global Air Quality and Climate Impacts of Mitigating Short-lived Climate Pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, K.; Unger, N.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, G.; Klimont, Z.; Schoepp, W.; Wagner, F.

2014-12-01

China is a major emitter of harmful air pollutants, including the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and their precursors. Implementation of pollution control technologies provides a mechanism for simultaneously protecting human and ecosystem health and achieving near-term climate co-benefits; however, predicting the outcomes of technical and policy interventions is challenging because the SLCPs participate in both climate warming and cooling and share many common emission sources. Here, we present the results of a combined regional integrated assessment and global climate modeling study aimed at quantifying the near-term climate and air quality co-benefits of selective control of Chinese air pollution emissions. Results from IIASA's Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model indicate that methane emission reductions make up > 75% of possible CO2-equivalent emission reductions of the SLCPs and their precursors in China in 2030. A multi-pollutant emission reduction scenario incorporating the 2030 Chinese pollution control measures with the highest potential for future climate impact is applied to the NASA ModelE2 - Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (NASA ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon - chemistry - climate model to assess the regional and long-range impacts of Chinese SLCP mitigation measures. Using model simulations that incorporate dynamic methane emissions and photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emissions, we quantify the impacts of Chinese reductions of the short-lived air pollutants on radiative forcing and on surface ozone and particulate air pollution. Present-day modeled methane mole fractions are evaluated against SCIAMACHY methane columns and NOAA ESRL/GMD surface flask measurements.

“Impact of CB6 and CB05TU chemical mechanisms on air quality”

EPA Science Inventory

“Impacts of CB6 and CB05TU chemical mechanisms on air quality”In this study, we incorporate the newly developed Carbon Bond chemical mechanism (CB6) into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQv5.0.1) and perform air quality model simulations with the CB6 and t...

An Observational and modeling strategy to investigate the impact of remote sources on local air quality: A Houston, Texas case study from the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TEXAQS II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMillan, W. W.; Pierce, R.; Sparling, L. C.

2010-01-05

Quantifying the impacts of remote sources on individual air quality exceedances remains a significant challenge for air quality forecasting. One goal of the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study (TEXAQS II) was to assess the impact of distant sources on air quality in east Texas. From 23-30 August 2006, retrievals of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) from NASA’s Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) reveal the transport of CO from fires in the United States Pacific Northwest to Houston, Texas. This transport occurred behind a cold front and contributed to the worst ozone exceedance period of the summer in the Houston area. We presentmore » supporting satellite observations from the NASA A-Train constellation of the vertical distribution of smoke aerosols and CO. Ground-based in situ CO measurements in Oklahoma and Texas track the CO plume as it moves south and indicate mixing of the aloft plume to the surface by turbulence in the nocturnal boundary layer and convection during the day. Ground-based aerosol speciation and lidar observations do not find appreciable smoke aerosol transport for this case. However, MODIS aerosol optical depths and model simulations indicate some smoke aerosols were transported from the Pacific Northwest through Texas to the Gulf of Mexico. Chemical transport and forward trajectory models confirm the three major observations: (1) the AIRS envisioned CO transport, (2) the satellite determined smoke plume height, and (3) the timing of the observed surface CO increases. Further, the forward trajectory simulations find two of the largest Pacific Northwest fires likely had the most significant impact.« less

Evaluating the Impacts of Transboundary Air pollution from China on Air Quality in the U.S. Using a Regression Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo, N. S.; Bao, X.; Zhong, N.

2014-12-01

China is the largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollution in the world and previous work has shown the environmental impacts of the long-range transport (LRT) of air pollution from China to the U.S. via chemical transport models, in situ observations, isentropic back trajectories, and to a lesser extent statistical models. However, these studies generally focus on a narrow time period due to data constraints. In this study, we build upon the literature using econometric techniques to isolate the impacts on U.S. air quality from the LRT of air pollution from China. We use a unique daily data set of China's air pollution index (API) and PM10 concentrations at the city level and merge these information with daily monitor data in California (CA) between 2000 and 2013. We first employ a distributed lag model to examine daily patterns, and then exploit a "natural experiment." In the latter methodology, since air pollution is rarely randomly assigned, we examine the impacts of specific events that affect air quality in China, but are plausibly uncorrelated to factors affecting air pollution in CA. For example, Chinese New Year (CNY) is a major week-long holiday and we show pollution levels in China decrease during this time period, likely from reductions in industrial production. CNY varies each calendar year since it is based off the lunar new year, so the timing of this pollution reduction could be considered "as good as random" or exogenous to factors affecting air quality in CA. Using a regression framework including weather, seasonal and geographic controls, we can potentially isolate the impact of the LRT of air pollution to CA. First, results from the distributed lag model suggest that in the Spring, when LRT peaks, a 1 μg/m3 increase in daily PM10 from China between 10 and 14 days ago is associated with an increase in today's PM2.5 in CA of 0.022 μg/m3 (mean daily PM2.5 in CA is 12 μg/m3). Second, we find that if CNY occurred 5 to 9 days ago, today's PM2.5 in

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin.

PubMed

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency's model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes.

Urban Air Quality Modelling with AURORA: Prague and Bratislava

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldeman, N.; Viaene, P.; De Ridder, K.; Peelaerts, W.; Lauwaet, D.; Muhammad, N.; Blyth, L.

2012-04-01

The European Commission, in its strategy to protect the health of the European citizens, states that in order to assess the impact of air pollution on public health, information on long-term exposure to air pollution should be available. Currently, indicators of air quality are often being generated using measured pollutant concentrations. While air quality monitoring stations data provide accurate time series information at specific locations, air quality models have the advantage of being able to assess the spatial variability of air quality (for different resolutions) and predict air quality in the future based on different scenarios. When running such air quality models at a high spatial and temporal resolution, one can simulate the actual situation as closely as possible, allowing for a detailed assessment of the risk of exposure to citizens from different pollutants. AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), a prognostic 3-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model, is designed to simulate urban- to regional-scale atmospheric pollutant concentration and exposure fields. The AURORA model also allows to calculate the impact of changes in land use (e.g. planting of trees) or of emission reduction scenario's on air quality. AURORA is currently being applied within the ESA atmospheric GMES service, PASODOBLE (http://www.myair-eu.org), that delivers information on air quality, greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone, … At present there are two operational AURORA services within PASODOBLE. Within the "Air quality forecast service" VITO delivers daily air quality forecasts for Belgium at a resolution of 5 km and for the major Belgian cities: Brussels, Ghent, Antwerp, Liege and Charleroi. Furthermore forecast services are provided for Prague, Czech Republic and Bratislava, Slovakia, both at a resolution of 1 km. The "Urban/regional air quality assessment service" provides urban- and regional-scale maps (hourly resolution

Air quality impacts from prescribed forest fires under different management practices.

PubMed

Tian, Di; Wang, Yuhang; Bergin, Michelle; Hu, Yongtao; Liu, Yongqiang; Russell, Armistead G

2008-04-15

Large amounts of air pollutants are emitted during prescribed forest fires. Such emissions and corresponding air quality impacts can be modulated by different forest management practices. The impacts of changing burning seasons and frequencies and of controlling emissions during smoldering on regional air quality in Georgia are quantified using source-oriented air quality modeling, with modified emissions from prescribed fires reflecting effects of each practice. Equivalent fires in the spring and winter are found to have a greater impact on PM2.5 than those in summer, though ozone impacts are larger from spring and summer fires. If prescribed fires are less frequent more biofuel is burnt in each fire, leading to larger emissions and air quality impacts per fire. For example, emissions from a fire with a 5-year fire return interval (FRI) are 72% larger than those from a fire of the same acreage with a 2-year FRI. However, corresponding long-term regional impacts are reduced with the longer FRI since the annual burned area is reduced. Total emissions for fires in Georgia with a 5-year FRI are 32% less than those with a 2-year FRI. Smoldering emissions can lead to approximately 1.0 or 1.9 microg/m3 of PM2.5 in the Atlanta PM2.5 nonattainment area during March 2002.

Air entrapment under an impacting drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoroddsen, S. T.; Etoh, T. G.; Takehara, K.

2003-03-01

When a drop impacts on a liquid surface it entraps a small amount of air under its centre as the two liquid surfaces meet. The contact occurs along a ring enclosing a thin disk of air. We use the next-generation ultra-high-speed video camera, capable of 1 million f.p.s. (Etoh et al. 2002), to study the dynamics of this air sheet as it contracts due to surface tension, to form a bubble or, more frequently, splits into two bubbles. During the contraction of the air disk an azimuthal undulation, resembling a pearl necklace, develops along its edge. The contraction speed of the sheet is accurately described by a balance between inertia and surface tension. The average initial thickness of the air sheet decreases with higher impact Reynolds numbers, becoming less than one micron. The total volume of air entrapped depends strongly on the bottom curvature of the drop at impact. A sheet of micro-bubbles is often observed along the original interface. Oguz Prosperetti bubble rings are also observed. For low Weber numbers (We<20) a variety of other entrapment phenomena appear.

Impact of noise and air pollution on pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Gehring, Ulrike; Tamburic, Lillian; Sbihi, Hind; Davies, Hugh W; Brauer, Michael

2014-05-01

Motorized traffic is an important source of both air pollution and community noise. While there is growing evidence for an adverse effect of ambient air pollution on reproductive health, little is known about the association between traffic noise and pregnancy outcomes. We evaluated the impact of residential noise exposure on small size for gestational age, preterm birth, term birth weight, and low birth weight at term in a population-based cohort study, for which we previously reported associations between air pollution and pregnancy outcomes. We also evaluated potential confounding of air pollution effects by noise and vice versa. Linked administrative health data sets were used to identify 68,238 singleton births (1999-2002) in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, with complete covariate data (sex, ethnicity, parity, birth month and year, income, and education) and maternal residential history. We estimated exposure to noise with a deterministic model (CadnaA) and exposure to air pollution using temporally adjusted land-use regression models and inverse distance weighting of stationary monitors for the entire pregnancy. Noise exposure was negatively associated with term birth weight (mean difference = -19 [95% confidence interval = -23 to -15] g per 6 dB(A)). In joint air pollution-noise models, associations between noise and term birth weight remained largely unchanged, whereas associations decreased for all air pollutants. Traffic may affect birth weight through exposure to both air pollution and noise.

Modeled Full-Flight Aircraft Emissions Impacts on Air Quality and Their Sensitivity to Grid Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vennam, L. P.; Vizuete, W.; Talgo, K.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F. S.; Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Arunachalam, S.

2017-12-01

Aviation is a unique anthropogenic source with four-dimensional varying emissions, peaking at cruise altitudes (9-12 km). Aircraft emission budgets in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere region and their potential impacts on upper troposphere and surface air quality are not well understood. Our key objective is to use chemical transport models (with prescribed meteorology) to predict aircraft emissions impacts on the troposphere and surface air quality. We quantified the importance of including full-flight intercontinental emissions and increased horizontal grid resolution. The full-flight aviation emissions in the Northern Hemisphere contributed 1.3% (mean, min-max: 0.46, 0.3-0.5 ppbv) and 0.2% (0.013, 0.004-0.02 μg/m3) of total O3 and PM2.5 concentrations at the surface, with Europe showing slightly higher impacts (1.9% (O3 0.69, 0.5-0.85 ppbv) and 0.5% (PM2.5 0.03, 0.01-0.05 μg/m3)) than North America (NA) and East Asia. We computed seasonal aviation-attributable mass flux vertical profiles and aviation perturbations along isentropic surfaces to quantify the transport of cruise altitude emissions at the hemispheric scale. The comparison of coarse (108 × 108 km2) and fine (36 × 36 km2) grid resolutions in NA showed 70 times and 13 times higher aviation impacts for O3 and PM2.5 in coarser domain. These differences are mainly due to the inability of the coarse resolution simulation to capture nonlinearities in chemical processes near airport locations and other urban areas. Future global studies quantifying aircraft contributions should consider model resolution and perhaps use finer scales near major aviation source regions.

Modeled Full-Flight Aircraft Emissions Impacts on Air Quality and Their Sensitivity to Grid Resolution

PubMed Central

Vennam, L. P.; Vizuete, W.; Talgo, K.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F. S.; Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Arunachalam, S.

2018-01-01

Aviation is a unique anthropogenic source with four-dimensional varying emissions, peaking at cruise altitudes (9–12 km). Aircraft emission budgets in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere region and their potential impacts on upper troposphere and surface air quality are not well understood. Our key objective is to use chemical transport models (with prescribed meteorology) to predict aircraft emissions impacts on the troposphere and surface air quality. We quantified the importance of including full-flight intercontinental emissions and increased horizontal grid resolution. The full-flight aviation emissions in the Northern Hemisphere contributed ~1.3% (mean, min–max: 0.46, 0.3–0.5 ppbv) and 0.2% (0.013, 0.004–0.02 μg/m3) of total O3 and PM2.5 concentrations at the surface, with Europe showing slightly higher impacts (1.9% (O3 0.69, 0.5–0.85 ppbv) and 0.5% (PM2.5 0.03, 0.01–0.05 μg/m3)) than North America (NA) and East Asia. We computed seasonal aviation-attributable mass flux vertical profiles and aviation perturbations along isentropic surfaces to quantify the transport of cruise altitude emissions at the hemispheric scale. The comparison of coarse (108 × 108 km2) and fine (36 × 36 km2) grid resolutions in NA showed ~70 times and ~13 times higher aviation impacts for O3 and PM2.5 in coarser domain. These differences are mainly due to the inability of the coarse resolution simulation to capture nonlinearities in chemical processes near airport locations and other urban areas. Future global studies quantifying aircraft contributions should consider model resolution and perhaps use finer scales near major aviation source regions. PMID:29707471

Modeled Full-Flight Aircraft Emissions Impacts on Air Quality and Their Sensitivity to Grid Resolution.

PubMed

Vennam, L P; Vizuete, W; Talgo, K; Omary, M; Binkowski, F S; Xing, J; Mathur, R; Arunachalam, S

2017-01-01

Aviation is a unique anthropogenic source with four-dimensional varying emissions, peaking at cruise altitudes (9-12 km). Aircraft emission budgets in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere region and their potential impacts on upper troposphere and surface air quality are not well understood. Our key objective is to use chemical transport models (with prescribed meteorology) to predict aircraft emissions impacts on the troposphere and surface air quality. We quantified the importance of including full-flight intercontinental emissions and increased horizontal grid resolution. The full-flight aviation emissions in the Northern Hemisphere contributed ~1.3% (mean, min-max: 0.46, 0.3-0.5 ppbv) and 0.2% (0.013, 0.004-0.02 μg/m 3 ) of total O 3 and PM 2.5 concentrations at the surface, with Europe showing slightly higher impacts (1.9% (O 3 0.69, 0.5-0.85 ppbv) and 0.5% (PM 2.5 0.03, 0.01-0.05 μg/m 3 )) than North America (NA) and East Asia. We computed seasonal aviation-attributable mass flux vertical profiles and aviation perturbations along isentropic surfaces to quantify the transport of cruise altitude emissions at the hemispheric scale. The comparison of coarse (108 × 108 km 2 ) and fine (36 × 36 km 2 ) grid resolutions in NA showed ~70 times and ~13 times higher aviation impacts for O 3 and PM 2.5 in coarser domain. These differences are mainly due to the inability of the coarse resolution simulation to capture nonlinearities in chemical processes near airport locations and other urban areas. Future global studies quantifying aircraft contributions should consider model resolution and perhaps use finer scales near major aviation source regions.

Health and cost impact of air pollution from biomass burning over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eslami, E.; Sadeghi, B.; Choi, Y.

2017-12-01

Effective assessment of health and cost effects of air pollution associated with wildfire events is critical for supporting sustainable management and policy analysis to reduce environmental damages. Since biomass burning events result in higher ozone, PM2.5, and NOx concentration values in urban regions due to long-range transport, preliminary results indicated that wildfire events cause a considerable increase in incident estimates and costs. This study aims to evaluate the health and cost impact of biomass burning events over the continental United States using combined air quality and health impact modeling. To meet this goal, a comprehensive air quality modeling scenarios containing biomass burning emissions were conducted using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system from 2011 to 2014 with a spatial resolution of 12 km. The modeling period includes fire seasons between April and October over the course of four years. By using modeled pollutants concentrations, the USEPA's GIS-based computer program Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) provides an inclusive figure of health and cost impact caused by changing gaseous and particulate air pollution due to fire events. The basis of BenMAP-CE is the use of a damage-function approach to estimate the health impact of an applied change in air quality by comparing a biomass burning scenario (the one that includes wildfire events) with a baseline scenario (without biomass emissions). This approach considers several factors containing population, exposure to the pollutants, adverse health effects of a particular pollutant, and economic costs. Hence, this study made it capable of showing how biomass burning across U.S. influences people's health in different months, seasons, and regions. Besides, the cost impact of the wildfire events during study periods has also been estimated at both national and regional levels. The results of this study demonstrate the

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horio, Brant M.; Kumar, Vivek; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2015-01-01

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Validation of a novel air toxic risk model with air monitoring.

PubMed

Pratt, Gregory C; Dymond, Mary; Ellickson, Kristie; Thé, Jesse

2012-01-01

Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state-wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via ingestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model-estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin

PubMed Central

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency’s model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes. PMID:29162976

40 CFR 93.160 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mitigation of air quality impacts. 93... quality impacts. (a) Any measures that are intended to mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and..., the revised text is set forth as follows: § 93.160 Mitigation of air quality impacts. (e) When...

Stochastic Lanchester Air-to-Air Campaign Model: Model Description and Users Guides

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

STOCHASTIC LANCHESTER AIR-TO-AIR CAMPAIGN MODEL MODEL DESCRIPTION AND USERS GUIDES—2009 REPORT PA702T1 Rober t V. Hemm Jr. Dav id A . Lee...LMI © 2009. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Stochastic Lanchester Air-to-Air Campaign Model: Model Description and Users Guides—2009 PA702T1/JANUARY...2009 Executive Summary This report documents the latest version of the Stochastic Lanchester Air-to-Air Campaign Model (SLAACM), developed by LMI for

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

Modeling to Evaluate Contribution of Oil and Gas Emissions to Air Pollution.

PubMed

Thompson, Tammy M; Shepherd, Donald; Stacy, Andrea; Barna, Michael G; Schichtel, Bret A

2017-04-01

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (Class I and II areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with a year-long modeling episode representing the best available representation of 2011 meteorology and emissions for the Western United States. The model inputs for the 2011 episodes were generated as part of the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). The study includes a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States. The year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the Class I and II areas in the Western United States. Modeling results suggest that emissions from O&G activity are having a negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in our National Parks and Class I areas. In this research, we use a modeling framework developed for oil and gas evaluation in the western United States to determine the modeled impacts of emissions associated with oil and gas production on air pollution metrics. We show that oil and gas production may have a significant negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in some national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States. Our findings are of particular interest to federal

Landing impact studies of a 0.3-scale model air cushion landing system for a Navy fighter airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leland, T. J. W.; Thompson, W. C.

1975-01-01

An experimental study was conducted in order to determine the landing-impact behavior of a 0.3-scale, dynamically (but not physically) similar model of a high-density Navy fighter equipped with an air cushion landing system. The model was tested over a range of landing contact attitudes at high forward speeds and sink rates on a specialized test fixture at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The investigation indicated that vertical acceleration at landing impact was highly dependent on the pitch angle at ground contact, the higher acceleration of approximately 5g occurring near zero body-pitch attitude. A limited number of low-speed taxi tests were made in order to determine model stability characteristics. The model was found to have good pitch-damping characteristics but stability in roll was marginal.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

Impact assessment of PM10 cement plants emissions on urban air quality using the SCIPUFF dispersion model.

PubMed

Leone, Vincenzo; Cervone, Guido; Iovino, Pasquale

2016-09-01

The Second-order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) model was used to study the impact on urban air quality caused by two cement plants emissions located near the city of Caserta, Italy, during the entire year of 2015. The simulated and observed PM10 concentrations were compared using three monitoring stations located in urban and sub-urban area of Caserta city. Both simulated and observed concentrations are shown to be highest in winter, lower in autumn and spring and lowest in summer. Model results generally follow the pattern of the observed concentrations but have a systematic under-prediction of the concentration values. Measures of the bias, NMSE and RMSE indicate a good correlation between observed and estimated values. The SCIPUFF model data analysis suggest that the cement plants are major sources for the measured PM10 values and are responsible for the deterioration of the urban air quality in the city of Caserta.

Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=1058), and constituents of PM2.5 from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) network (n=264) and use satellite image analysis from the NOAA Hazard Mapping System (HMS) to determine days on which visible smoke plumes are detected in the vertical column of the monitoring site. To examine the impact of smoke from these fires on regional air pollution we use a two stage approach, accounting for within site (1st stage) and between site (2nd stage) variations. At the first stage we estimate a monitor-specific plume day effect describing the relative change in pollutant concentrations on the days impacted by smoke plume while accounting for confounding effects of season and temperature_. At the second stage we combine monitor-specific plume day effects with a Bayesian hierarchical model and estimate a pooled nationally-averaged effect. HMS visible smoke plumes were detected on 6% of ozone, 8% of PM2.5 and 6% of IMPROVE network monitoring days. Our preliminary results indicate that the long range transport of air pollutants from wildfires and prescribed burns increase ozone concentration by 11% and PM2.5 mass by 34%. On all of the days where monitoring sites were AQI

40 CFR 93.160 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Mitigation of air quality impacts. 93.160 Section 93.160 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... quality impacts. (a) Any measures that are intended to mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and...

40 CFR 93.160 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mitigation of air quality impacts. 93.160 Section 93.160 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... quality impacts. (a) Any measures that are intended to mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and...

40 CFR 93.160 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation of air quality impacts. 93.160 Section 93.160 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... quality impacts. (a) Any measures that are intended to mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and...

40 CFR 93.160 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation of air quality impacts. 93.160 Section 93.160 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... quality impacts. (a) Any measures that are intended to mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and...

Recessions and Health: The Impact of Economic Trends on Air Pollution in California

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Objectives. I explored the hypothesis that economic activity has a significant impact on exposure to air pollution and ultimately human health. Methods. I used county-level employment statistics in California (1980–2000), along with major regulatory periods and other controlling factors, to estimate local concentrations of the coefficient of haze, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide using a mixed regression model approach. Results. The model explained between 33% and 48% of the variability in air pollution levels as estimated by the overall R2 values. The relationship between employment measures and air pollution was statistically significant, suggesting that air quality improves during economic downturns. Additionally, major air quality regulations played a significant role in reducing air pollution levels over the study period. Conclusions. This study provides important evidence of a role for the economy in understanding human exposure to environmental pollution. The evidence further suggests that the impact of environmental regulations are likely to be overstated when they occur during recessionary periods, and understated when they play out during periods of economic growth. PMID:22897522

Recessions and health: the impact of economic trends on air pollution in California.

PubMed

Davis, Mary E

2012-10-01

I explored the hypothesis that economic activity has a significant impact on exposure to air pollution and ultimately human health. I used county-level employment statistics in California (1980-2000), along with major regulatory periods and other controlling factors, to estimate local concentrations of the coefficient of haze, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide using a mixed regression model approach. The model explained between 33% and 48% of the variability in air pollution levels as estimated by the overall R(2) values. The relationship between employment measures and air pollution was statistically significant, suggesting that air quality improves during economic downturns. Additionally, major air quality regulations played a significant role in reducing air pollution levels over the study period. This study provides important evidence of a role for the economy in understanding human exposure to environmental pollution. The evidence further suggests that the impact of environmental regulations are likely to be overstated when they occur during recessionary periods, and understated when they play out during periods of economic growth.

40 CFR 51.860 - Mitigation of air quality impacts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mitigation of air quality impacts. 51... Federal Actions to State or Federal Implementation Plans § 51.860 Mitigation of air quality impacts. Link... mitigate air quality impacts must be identified and the process for implementation and enforcement of such...

On the validity of the incremental approach to estimate the impact of cities on air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thunis, Philippe

2018-01-01

The question of how much cities are the sources of their own air pollution is not only theoretical as it is critical to the design of effective strategies for urban air quality planning. In this work, we assess the validity of the commonly used incremental approach to estimate the likely impact of cities on their air pollution. With the incremental approach, the city impact (i.e. the concentration change generated by the city emissions) is estimated as the concentration difference between a rural background and an urban background location, also known as the urban increment. We show that the city impact is in reality made up of the urban increment and two additional components and consequently two assumptions need to be fulfilled for the urban increment to be representative of the urban impact. The first assumption is that the rural background location is not influenced by emissions from within the city whereas the second requires that background concentration levels, obtained with zero city emissions, are equal at both locations. Because the urban impact is not measurable, the SHERPA modelling approach, based on a full air quality modelling system, is used in this work to assess the validity of these assumptions for some European cities. Results indicate that for PM2.5, these two assumptions are far from being fulfilled for many large or medium city sizes. For this type of cities, urban increments are largely underestimating city impacts. Although results are in better agreement for NO2, similar issues are met. In many situations the incremental approach is therefore not an adequate estimate of the urban impact on air pollution. This poses issues in terms of interpretation when these increments are used to define strategic options in terms of air quality planning. We finally illustrate the interest of comparing modelled and measured increments to improve our confidence in the model results.

Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California.

PubMed

Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Williams, Robert; Dabdub, Donald

2016-02-01

It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state "technically" recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality. This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining

Air cushioning in drop impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Jolet; Oh, Jung; van den Ende, Dirk; Mugele, Frieder

2011-11-01

Liquid drops impacting on solid surfaces deform under the influence of the ambient gas that needs to be squeezed out before a true solid-liquid contact can be established. We demonstrate experimentally the existence of this theoretically predicted air layer and follow its evolution with time for moderate impact speeds (We ~ 1 ... 10) using reflection interference microscopy with a thickness resolution of approximately 10nm. For a wide range of fluid properties (ρ, γ, η) we find a very robust generic behavior that includes the predicted formation of a dimple in the center of the drop with a local minimum of the air film thickness at its boundary. Depending on We as well as the fluid properties, a skating layer of more or less constant thickness as well as a second local minimum of the air film thickness farther away from the drop center develop in time. Eventually, solid-liquid contact is generated via random nucleation event. The nucleation spot spreads across the drop-substrate interface within a few milliseconds. This process can lead to the entrapment of an air bubble.

Impact of WRF model PBL schemes on air quality simulations over Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Banks, R F; Baldasano, J M

2016-12-01

Here we analyze the impact of four planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrization schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model on simulations of meteorological variables and predicted pollutant concentrations from an air quality forecast system (AQFS). The current setup of the Spanish operational AQFS, CALIOPE, is composed of the WRF-ARW V3.5.1 meteorological model tied to the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme, HERMES v2 emissions model, CMAQ V5.0.2 chemical transport model, and dust outputs from BSC-DREAM8bv2. We test the performance of the YSU scheme against the Assymetric Convective Model Version 2 (ACM2), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Bougeault-Lacarrère (BouLac) schemes. The one-day diagnostic case study is selected to represent the most frequent synoptic condition in the northeast Iberian Peninsula during spring 2015; regional recirculations. It is shown that the ACM2 PBL scheme performs well with daytime PBL height, as validated against estimates retrieved using a micro-pulse lidar system (mean bias=-0.11km). In turn, the BouLac scheme showed WRF-simulated air and dew point temperature closer to METAR surface meteorological observations. Results are more ambiguous when simulated pollutant concentrations from CMAQ are validated against network urban, suburban, and rural background stations. The ACM2 scheme showed the lowest mean bias (-0.96μgm -3 ) with respect to surface ozone at urban stations, while the YSU scheme performed best with simulated nitrogen dioxide (-6.48μgm -3 ). The poorest results were with simulated particulate matter, with similar results found with all schemes tested. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of High Resolution Land-Use Data in Meteorology and Air Quality Modeling Systems

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate land use information is important in meteorology for land surface exchanges, in emission modeling for emission spatial allocation, and in air quality modeling for chemical surface fluxes. Currently, meteorology, emission, and air quality models often use outdated USGS Gl...

Source apportionment and air quality impact assessment studies in Beijing/China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suppan, P.; Schrader, S.; Shen, R.; Ling, H.; Schäfer, K.; Norra, S.; Vogel, B.; Wang, Y.

2012-04-01

More than 15 million people in the greater area of Beijing are still suffering from severe air pollution levels caused by sources within the city itself but also from external impacts like severe dust storms and long range advection from the southern and central part of China. Within this context particulate matter (PM) is the major air pollutant in the greater area of Beijing (Garland et al., 2009). PM did not serve only as lead substance for air quality levels and therefore for adverse health impact effects but also for a strong influence on the climate system by changing e.g. the radiative balance. Investigations on emission reductions during the Olympic Summer Games in 2008 have caused a strong reduction on coarser particles (PM10) but not on smaller particles (PM2.5). In order to discriminate the composition of the particulate matter levels, the different behavior of coarser and smaller particles investigations on source attribution, particle characteristics and external impacts on the PM levels of the city of Beijing by measurements and modeling are performed: Examples of long term measurements of PM2.5 filter sampling in 2005 with the objectives of detailed chemical (source attribution, carbon fraction, organic speciation and inorganic composition) and isotopic analyses as well as toxicological assessment in cooperation with several institutions (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (IfGG/IMG), Helmholtz Zentrum München (HMGU), University Rostock (UR), Chinese University of Mining and Technology Beijing, CUMTB) will be discussed. Further experimental studies include the operation of remote sensing systems to determine continuously the MLH (by a ceilometer) and gaseous air pollutants near the ground (by DOAS systems) as well as at the 320 m measurement tower (adhesive plates at different heights for passive particle collection) in cooperation with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The influence of the MLH on

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of

Inertial impaction air sampling device

DOEpatents

Dewhurst, Katharine H.

1990-01-01

An inertial impactor to be used in an air sampling device for collection of respirable size particles in ambient air which may include a graphite furnace as the impaction substrate in a small-size, portable, direct analysis structure that gives immediate results and is totally self-contained allowing for remote and/or personal sampling. The graphite furnace collects suspended particles transported through the housing by means of the air flow system, and these particles may be analyzed for elements, quantitatively and qualitatively, by atomic absorption spectrophotometry.

InMAP: a new model for air pollution interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

2015-10-01

Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations - the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages - attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) < 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3

Inertial impaction air sampling device

DOEpatents

Dewhurst, K.H.

1990-05-22

An inertial impactor is designed which is to be used in an air sampling device for collection of respirable size particles in ambient air. The device may include a graphite furnace as the impaction substrate in a small-size, portable, direct analysis structure that gives immediate results and is totally self-contained allowing for remote and/or personal sampling. The graphite furnace collects suspended particles transported through the housing by means of the air flow system, and these particles may be analyzed for elements, quantitatively and qualitatively, by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. 3 figs.

Inertial impaction air sampling device

DOEpatents

Dewhurst, K.H.

1987-12-10

An inertial impactor to be used in an air sampling device for collection of respirable size particles in ambient air which may include a graphite furnace as the impaction substrate in a small-size, portable, direct analysis structure that gives immediate results and is totally self-contained allowing for remote and/or personal sampling. The graphite furnace collects suspended particles transported through the housing by means of the air flow system, and these particles may be analyzed for elements, quantitatively and qualitatively, by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. 3 figs.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Init...

Quantifying regional consumption-based health impacts attributable to ambient air pollution in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanxia; Qu, Shen; Zhao, Jing; Zhu, Ge; Zhang, Yanxu; Lu, Xi; Sabel, Clive E; Wang, Haikun

2018-03-01

Serious air pollution has caused about one million premature deaths per year in China recently. Besides cross-border atmospheric transport of air pollution, trade also relocates pollution and related health impacts across China as a result of the spatial separation between consumption and production. This study proposes an approach for calculating the health impacts of emissions due to a region's consumption based on a multidisciplinary methodology coupling economic, atmospheric, and epidemiological models. These analyses were performed for China's Beijing and Hebei provinces. It was found that these provinces' consumption-based premature deaths attributable to ambient PM 2.5 were respectively 22,500 and 49,700, which were 23% higher and 37% lower than the numbers solely within their boundaries in 2007. The difference between the effects of trade and trade-related emissions on premature deaths attributable to air pollution in a region has also been clarified. The results illustrate the large and broad impact of domestic trade on regional air quality and the need for comprehensive consideration of supply chains in designing policy to mitigate the negative health impacts of air pollution across China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INDOOR AIR QUALITY MODEL VERSION 1.0 DOCUMENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents a multiroom model for estimating the impact of various sources on indoor air quality (IAQ). The model is written for use on IBM-PC and compatible microcomputers. It is easy to use with a menu-driven user interface. Data are entered using a fill-in-a-form inter...

Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary

2013-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Episodic air quality impacts of plug-in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razeghi, Ghazal; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Brown, Tim; Brouwer, Jack; Dabdub, Donald; Samuelsen, Scott

2016-07-01

In this paper, the Spatially and Temporally Resolved Energy and Environment Tool (STREET) is used in conjunction with University of California Irvine - California Institute of Technology (UCI-CIT) atmospheric chemistry and transport model to assess the impact of deploying plug-in electric vehicles and integrating wind energy into the electricity grid on urban air quality. STREET is used to generate emissions profiles associated with transportation and power generation sectors for different future cases. These profiles are then used as inputs to UCI-CIT to assess the impact of each case on urban air quality. The results show an overall improvement in 8-h averaged ozone and 24-h averaged particulate matter concentrations in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) with localized increases in some cases. The most significant reductions occur northeast of the region where baseline concentrations are highest (up to 6 ppb decrease in 8-h-averaged ozone and 6 μg/m3 decrease in 24-h-averaged PM2.5). The results also indicate that, without integration of wind energy into the electricity grid, the temporal vehicle charging profile has very little to no effect on urban air quality. With the addition of wind energy to the grid mix, improvement in air quality is observed while charging at off-peak hours compared to the business as usual scenario.

Mining Environmental Data from a Coupled Modelling System to Examine the Impact of Agricultural Management Practices on Groundwater and Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, V.; Cooter, E. J.; Hayes, B.; Murphy, M. S.; Bash, J. O.

2014-12-01

Excess nitrogen (N) resulting from current agricultural management practices can leach into sources of drinking water as nitrate, increasing human health risks of 'blue baby syndrome', hypertension, and some cancers and birth defects. Nitrogen also enters the atmosphere from land surfaces forming air pollution increasing human health risks of pulmonary and cardio-vascular disease. Characterizing and attributing nitrogen from agricultural management practices is difficult due to the complex and inter-related chemical and biological reactions associated with the nitrogen cascade. Coupled physical process-based models, however, present new opportunities to investigate relationships among environmental variables on new scales; particularly because they link emission sources with meteorology and the pollutant concentration ultimately found in the environment. In this study, we applied a coupled meteorology (NOAA-WRF), agricultural (USDA-EPIC) and air quality modelling system (EPA-CMAQ) to examine the impact of nitrogen inputs from corn production on ecosystem and human health and wellbeing. The coupled system accounts for the nitrogen flux between the land surface and air, and the soil surface and groundwater, providing a unique opportunity to examine the effect of management practices such as type and timing of fertilization, tilling and irrigation on both groundwater and air quality across the conterminous US. In conducting the study, we first determined expected relationships based on literature searches and then identified model variables as direct or surrogate variables. We performed extensive and methodical multi-variate regression modelling and variable selection to examine associations between agricultural management practices and environmental condition. We then applied the regression model to predict and contrast pollution levels between two corn production scenarios (Figure 1). Finally, we applied published health functions (e.g., spina bifida and cardio

Impact of wildfires on regional air pollution

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the impact of wildfires and agricultural/prescribed burning on regional air pollution and Air Quality Index (AQI) between 2006 and 2013. We define daily regional air pollution using monitoring sites for ozone (n=1595), PM2.5 collected by Federal Reference Method (n=10...

[Main indoor air pollutants and their health impacts].

PubMed

Xu, Zhen; Jin, Yinlong

2003-05-01

The quality of indoor air is a very important factor that may directly affect human health. There are many sources as well as a variety of indoor air pollutants. Therefore, the health impact is complicated, affecting different organs and systems of human being such as respiratory and immune system. The main indoor air pollutants are the combustion products from smoking, cooking and heating, the chemical pollutants from renovation materials and the biological contaminants. The kinds, sources and health impacts of these pollutants that affect the indoor air quality are reviewed in this paper.

Impact of traffic-related air pollution on health.

PubMed

Jakubiak-Lasocka, J; Lasocki, J; Siekmeier, R; Chłopek, Z

2015-01-01

Road transport contributes significantly to air quality problems through vehicle emissions, which have various detrimental impacts on public health and the environment. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on health of Warsaw citizens, following the basics of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) method, and evaluate its social cost. PM10 was chosen as an indicator of traffic-related air pollution. Exposure-response functions between air pollution and health impacts were employed. The value of statistical life (VSL) approach was used for the estimation of the cost of mortality attributable to traffic-related air pollution. Costs of hospitalizations and restricted activity days were assessed basing on the cost of illness (COI) method. According to the calculations, about 827 Warsaw citizens die in a year as a result of traffic-related air pollution. Also, about 566 and 250 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively, and more than 128,453 restricted activity days can be attributed to the traffic emissions. From the social perspective, these losses generate the cost of 1,604 million PLN (1 EUR-approx. 4.2 PLN). This cost is very high and, therefore, more attention should be paid for the integrated environmental health policy.

Indicators to support the dynamic evaluation of air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thunis, P.; Clappier, A.

2014-12-01

Air quality models are useful tools for the assessment and forecast of pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere. Most of the evaluation process relies on the “operational phase” or in other words the comparison of model results with available measurements which provides insight on the model capability to reproduce measured concentrations for a given application. But one of the key advantages of air quality models lies in their ability to assess the impact of precursor emission reductions on air quality levels. Models are then used in a dynamic mode (i.e. response to a change in a given model input data) for which evaluation of the model performances becomes a challenge. The objective of this work is to propose common indicators and diagrams to facilitate the understanding of model responses to emission changes when models are to be used for policy support. These indicators are shown to be useful to retrieve information on the magnitude of the locally produced impacts of emission reductions on concentrations with respect to the “external to the domain” contribution but also to identify, distinguish and quantify impacts arising from different factors (different precursors). In addition information about the robustness of the model results is provided. As such these indicators might reveal useful as first screening methodology to identify the feasibility of a given action as well as to prioritize the factors on which to act for an increased efficiency. Finally all indicators are made dimensionless to facilitate the comparison of results obtained with different models, different resolutions, or on different geographical areas.

Impacts of spectral nudging on the simulated surface air temperature in summer compared with the selection of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics parameterization in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jun; Hwang, Seung-On

2017-11-01

The impact of a spectral nudging technique for the dynamical downscaling of the summer surface air temperature in a high-resolution regional atmospheric model is assessed. The performance of this technique is measured by comparing 16 analysis-driven simulation sets of physical parameterization combinations of two shortwave radiation and four land surface model schemes of the model, which are known to be crucial for the simulation of the surface air temperature. It is found that the application of spectral nudging to the outermost domain has a greater impact on the regional climate than any combination of shortwave radiation and land surface model physics schemes. The optimal choice of two model physics parameterizations is helpful for obtaining more realistic spatiotemporal distributions of land surface variables such as the surface air temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, employing spectral nudging adds more value to the results; the improvement is greater than using sophisticated shortwave radiation and land surface model physical parameterizations. This result indicates that spectral nudging applied to the outermost domain provides a more accurate lateral boundary condition to the innermost domain when forced by analysis data by securing the consistency with large-scale forcing over a regional domain. This consequently indirectly helps two physical parameterizations to produce small-scale features closer to the observed values, leading to a better representation of the surface air temperature in a high-resolution downscaled climate.

Air Entrapment for Liquid Drops Impacting a Solid Substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Tan, Peng; Xu, Lei

2012-11-01

Using high-speed photography coupled with optical interference, we experimentally study the air entrapment during a liquid drop impacting a solid substrate. We observe the formation of a compressed air film before the liquid touches the substrate, with internal pressure considerably higher than the atmospheric value. The degree of compression highly depends on the impact velocity, as explained by balancing the liquid deceleration with the large pressure of compressed air. After contact, the air film expands vertically at the edge, reducing its pressure within a few tens of microseconds and producing a thick rim on the perimeter. This thick-rimmed air film subsequently contracts into an air bubble, governed by the complex interaction between surface tension, inertia and viscous drag. Such a process is universally observed for impacts above a few centimeters high. Hong Kong GRF grant CUHK404211 and direct grant 2060418.

Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

2018-02-01

A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

Impact of Clean Air Regulations on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in Neuse River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

We investigated impacts of Clean Air Act (CAA) nitrogen emissions regulations on the fate and transport of nitrogen for two watersheds in the Neuse River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used. Two scenar...

Quantifying Co-benefits of Renewable Energy through Integrated Electricity and Air Quality Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, D.

2016-12-01

This work focuses on the coordination of electricity sector changes with air quality and health improvement strategies through the integration of electricity and air quality models. Two energy models are used to calculate emission perturbations associated with changes in generation technology (20% generation from solar photovoltaics) and demand (future electricity use under a warmer climate). Impacts from increased solar PV penetration are simulated with the electricity model GridView, in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Generation results are used to scale power plant emissions from an inventory developed by the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO). Perturbed emissions and are used to calculate secondary particulate matter with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We find that electricity NOx and SO2 emissions decrease at a rate similar to the total fraction of electricity supplied by solar. Across the Eastern U.S. region, average PM2.5 is reduced 5% over the summer, with highest reduction in regions and on days of greater PM2.5. A similar approach evaluates the air quality impacts of elevated electricity demand under a warmer climate. Meteorology is selected from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and input to a building energy model, eQUEST, to assess electricity demand as a function of ambient temperature. The associated generation and emissions are calculated on a plant-by-plant basis by the MyPower power sector model. These emissions are referenced to the 2011 National Emissions Inventory to be modeled in CMAQ for the Eastern U.S. and extended to health impact evaluation with the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). All results focus on the air quality and health consequences of energy system changes, considering grid-level changes to meet climate and air quality goals.

Path Forward for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

EPA Science Inventory

This article lays out the objectives for Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The inhalation of air pollutants such as ozone and fine particles has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, and the atmospheric deposition of pollutan...

Distribution of Large Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Comparison with Free-Air Gravity, Crustal Thickness and Magnetization Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

A comparison of the distribution of visible and buried impact basins (Quasi-Circular Depressions or QCDs) on Mars > 200 km in diameter with free air gravity, crustal thickness and magnetization models shows some QCDs have coincident gravity anomalies but most do not. Very few QCDs have closely coincident magnetization anomalies, and only the oldest of the very large impact basins have strong magnetic anomalies within their main rings. Crustal thickness data show a large number of Circular Thinned Areas (CTAs). Some of these correspond to known impact basins, while others may represent buried impact basins not always recognized as QCDs in topography data alone. If true, the buried lowlands may be even older than we have previously estimated.

Modeling study of biomass burning plumes and their impact on urban air quality; a case study of Santiago de Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuchiara, Gustavo C.; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Angelica Rubio, Maria; Lissi, Eduardo; Gramsch, Ernesto; Garreaud, Rene D.

2017-04-01

Wildfires are a significant direct source of atmospheric pollutants; on a global scale biomass burning is believed to be the largest source of primary fine particles in the atmosphere and the second largest source of trace gases after anthropogenic emission sources. During the summer of 2014, an intense forest and dry pasture wildfire occurred nearby the city of Santiago de Chile. The biomass-burning plume was transported towards the metropolitan area of Santiago and exacerbated the air quality in this region. In this study, we investigated this wildfire event using a forward plume-rise and a chemistry (WRF/Chem) simulation. These data sets provided an opportunity to validate a regional air-quality simulation over Santiago, and a unique case to assess the performance of biomass burning plume modeling in complex topography and validated against an established air quality network. The results from both meteorological and air quality models provide insights about the transport of biomass-burning plumes from the wildfire region towards the metropolitan region of Santiago de Chile. We studied a seven-day period between January 01-07, 2014, and the impact of biomass burning plume emissions estimated by Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1 (FINNv1) on the air quality of Santiago de Chile.

Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

PubMed

Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

2009-07-01

The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

Hybrid Air Quality Modeling Approach For Use in the Near ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Near-road EXposures to Urban air pollutant Study (NEXUS) investigated whether children with asthma living in close proximity to major roadways in Detroit, MI, (particularly near roadways with high diesel traffic) have greater health impacts associated with exposure to air pollutants than those living farther away. A major challenge in such health and exposure studies is the lack of information regarding pollutant exposure characterization. Air quality modeling can provide spatially and temporally varying exposure estimates for examining relationships between traffic-related air pollutants and adverse health outcomes. This paper presents a hybrid air quality modeling approach and its application in NEXUS in order to provide spatial and temporally varying exposure estimates and identification of the mobile source contribution to the total pollutant exposure. Model-based exposure metrics, associated with local variations of emissions and meteorology, were estimated using a combination of the AERMOD and R-LINE dispersion models, local emission source information from the National Emissions Inventory, detailed road network locations and traffic activity, and meteorological data from the Detroit City Airport. The regional background contribution was estimated using a combination of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Space/Time Ordinary Kriging (STOK) model. To capture the near-road pollutant gradients, refined “mini-grids” of model recep

Application of Satellite and Ozonesonde Data to the Study of Nighttime Tropospheric Ozone Impacts and Relationship to Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterman, G. B.; Eldering, A.; Neu, J. L.; Tang, Y.; McQueen, J.; Pinder, R. W.

2011-12-01

To help protect human health and ecosystems, regional-scale atmospheric chemistry models are used to forecast high ozone events and to design emission control strategies to decrease the frequency and severity of ozone events. Despite the impact that nighttime aloft ozone can have on surface ozone, regional-scale atmospheric chemistry models often do not simulate the nighttime ozone concentrations well and nor do they sufficiently capture the ozone transport patterns. Fully characterizing the importance of the nighttime ozone has been hampered by limited measurements of the vertical distribution of ozone and ozone-precursors. The main focus of this work is to begin to utilize remote sensing data sets to characterize the impact of nighttime aloft ozone to air quality events. We will describe our plans to use NASA satellite data sets, transport models and air quality models to study ozone transport, focusing primarily on nighttime ozone and provide initial results. We will use satellite and ozonesonde data to help understand how well the air quality models are simulating ozone in the lower free troposphere and attempt to characterize the impact of nighttime ozone to air quality events. Our specific objectives are: 1) Characterize nighttime aloft ozone using remote sensing data and sondes. 2) Evaluate the ability of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) model to capture the nighttime aloft ozone and its relationship to air quality events. 3) Analyze a set of air quality events and determine the relationship of air quality events to the nighttime aloft ozone. We will achieve our objectives by utilizing the ozone profile data from the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and other sensors, ozonesonde data collected during the Aura mission (IONS), EPA AirNow ground station ozone data, the CMAQ continental-scale air quality model, and the National Air Quality

The Impact of Residential Combustion Emissions on Air Quality and Human Health in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer-Nicholls, S.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Baumgartner, J.; Brauer, M.; Cohen, A.; Carter, E.; Frostad, J.; Forouzanfar, M.; Xiao, Q.; Liu, Y.; Yang, X.; Hongjiang, N.; Kun, N.

2015-12-01

Solid fuel cookstoves are used heavily in rural China for both residential cooking and heating purposes. Their use contributes significantly to regional emissions of several key pollutants, including carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and aerosol particles. The residential sector was responsible for approximately 36%, 46% and 81% of China's total primary PM2.5, BC and OC emissions respectively in 2005 (Lei et al., 2011). These emissions have serious consequences for household air pollution, ambient air quality, tropospheric ozone formation, and the resulting population health and climate impacts. This paper presents initial findings from the modeling component of a multi-disciplinary energy intervention study currently being conducted in Sichuan, China. The purpose of this effort is to quantify the impact of residential cooking and heating emissions on regional air quality and human health. Simulations with varying levels of residential emissions have been carried out for the whole of 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), a fully-coupled, "online" regional chemical transport model. Model output is evaluated against surface air quality measurements across China and compared with seasonal (winter and summer) ambient air pollution measurements conducted at the Sichuan study site in 2014. The model output is applied to available exposure—response relationships between PM2.5 and cardiopulmonary health outcomes. The sensitivity in different regions across China to the different cookstove emission scenarios and seasonality of impacts are presented. By estimating the mortality and disease burden risk attributable to residential emissions we demonstrate the potential benefits from large-scale energy interventions. Lei Y, Zhang Q, He KB, Streets DG. 2011. Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990-2005. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11:931-954.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Geels, Camilla; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Solazzo, Efisio; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Alyuz, Ummugulsum; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baro, Rocio; Bellasio, Roberto; Bianconi, Roberto; Bieser, Johannes; Colette, Augustin; Curci, Gabriele; Farrow, Aidan; Flemming, Johannes; Fraser, Andrea; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Liang, Ciao-Kai; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Pirovano, Guido; Pozzoli, Luca; Prank, Marje; Rose, Rebecca; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Tuccella, Paolo; Unal, Alper; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; West, Jason; Yarwood, Greg; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2018-04-01

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ˜ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ˜ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the

Model Calculations of the Impact of NO(x) from Air Traffic, Lightning and Surface Emissions, Compared with Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meijer, E. W.; vanVelthoven, P. F. J.; Thompson, A. M.; Pfister, L.; Schlager, H.; Schulte, P.; Kelder, H.

1999-01-01

The impact of NO(x) from aircraft emissions, lightning and surface contributions on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone has been investigated with the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model TM3 by partitioning the nitrogen oxides and ozone according to source category. The results have been compared with POLINAT II and SONEX airborne measurements in the North Atlantic flight corridor in 1997. Various cases have been investigated: measurements during a stagnant anti-cyclone and an almost cut-off low, both with expected high aircraft contributions, a southward bound flight with an expected strong flight corridor gradient and lightning contributions in the South, and a transatlantic flight with expected boundary layer pollution near the U.S. coast. The agreement between modeled results and measurements is reasonably good for NO and ozone. Also, the calculated impact of the three defined sources were consistent with the estimated exposure of the sampled air to these sources, obtained by specialized back-trajectory model products.

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaier, Eric M.; Edlich, Alexander; Santmire, Tara S.; Wingrove, Earl R.., III

1999-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the

Modeling of lead air pollution. [Baton Rouge, Louisiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Monteith, C.S.; Henry, J.M.

1982-05-01

A study was performed to determine whether vehicular emissions should be included with industrial emissions when demonstrating attainment of the ambient air quality standard for lead. The impact on ambient lead concentrations of the phaseout of leaded gasoline and improved automobile fuel economy was examined by modeling vehicular emissions for 1972 and 1978. Results show that while automobiles in the Baton Rouge area were a significant source of lead in 1972, the phaseout of leaded gasoline and the increase in fuel economy have resulted in a lower contribution (0.20 ..mu..g/m/sup 3/) by automobiles to the ambient lead concentration in 1978.more » The areas having the greatest potential for exceeding the ambient air quality standard can be identified using CDM (EPA's Climatological Dispersion Model). This information can be used to determine the optimal location for an ambient air monitor to demonstrate compliance with the ambient air quality standard. 9 references, 4 figures, 5 tables. (JMT)« less

Modeling Air Traffic Management Technologies with a Queuing Network Model of the National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Johnson, Jesse; Gaier, Eric; Kostiuk, Peter

1999-01-01

This report describes an integrated model of air traffic management (ATM) tools under development in two National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs -Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) and Advanced Air Transport Technologies (AATT). The model is made by adjusting parameters of LMINET, a queuing network model of the National Airspace System (NAS), which the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) developed for NASA. Operating LMINET with models of various combinations of TAP and AATT will give quantitative information about the effects of the tools on operations of the NAS. The costs of delays under different scenarios are calculated. An extension of Air Carrier Investment Model (ACIM) under ASAC developed by the Institute for NASA maps the technologies' impacts on NASA operations into cross-comparable benefits estimates for technologies and sets of technologies.

Impacts of wildfire smoke plumes on regional air quality

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Recent trends in increased frequency and severity of large fires necessitate an improved understanding of smoke plume impacts on regional-scale air quality and public health. Objective: We examine the impact of fire smoke on regional air quality between 2006 and 2013 ...

Assessing air quality impacts of managed lanes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Impacts on transit bus performance and air quality were investigated for a case study high-occupancy / toll (HOT) lane project on a corridor of I-95 near Miami. Trends in air pollutant concentration monitoring data in the study area first were analyz...

Assessing air quality impacts of managed lanes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Impacts on transit bus performance and air quality were investigated for a case study high-occupancy / : toll (HOT) lane project on a corridor of I-95 near Miami. Trends in air pollutant concentration : monitoring data in the study area first were an...

ANALYSIS OF AIR QUALITY DATA NEAR ROADWAYS USING A DISPERSION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A dispersion model was used to analyze measurements made during a field study conducted by the U.S. EPA in July and August 2006, to estimate the impact of highway emissions on air quality at distances of tens of meters from an eight-lane highway. The air quality measurements con...

Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

“Modeling Trends in Air Pollutant Concentrations over the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional model calculations over annual cycles have pointed to the need for accurately representing impacts of long-range transport. Linking regional and global scale models have met with mixed success as biases in the global model can propagate and influence regional calculations and often confound interpretation of model results. Since transport is efficient in the free-troposphere and since simulations over Continental scales and annual cycles provide sufficient opportunity for “atmospheric turn-over”, i.e., exchange between the free-troposphere and the boundary-layer, a conceptual framework is needed wherein interactions between processes occurring at various spatial and temporal scales can be consistently examined. The coupled WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and model simulations over period spanning 1990-current are analyzed to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for pr

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

Investigating the Impact of Marine Ship Emissions on Regional Air Quality using OMI Satellite NO2 Observations and the CMAQ Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, A.; Canty, T. P.; He, H.; Vinciguerra, T.; Lamsal, L. N.; Dickerson, R. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Cohen, M.; Montgomery, L. N.; Dreessen, J.

2015-12-01

Commercial marine vessels (CMVs) emit significant amounts of NOx, an ozone precursor, which may contribute to negative health consequences for people living in areas near shipping lanes. In coastal US states, many metropolitan areas such as Baltimore and New York City are located near ports with CMVs. Many studies estimate that ships account for ~15-30% of the global anthropogenic NOx emissions. EPA developed emissions inventories are widely used by states to construct model scenarios for testing air quality attainment strategies. Currently, CMV emissions are generated by simply applying growth factors to aggregated emissions data from much earlier years. Satellite retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) have been successfully used to improve the veracity of marine emissions by incorporating observational data from the inventory year. In this study we use OMI NO2 observations and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model outputs to improve the EPA marine emission estimates for the Mid-Atlantic region. Back trajectories from the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT model are used to identify days with minimal continental influence on OMI tropospheric column NO2 over shipping lanes. We perform sensitivity analyses to quantify the impact of marine emissions on air quality and suggest strategies to better meet the EPA mandated ozone standard.

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

2016-04-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

Use of dispersion modelling for Environmental Impact Assessment of biological air pollution from composting: Progress, problems and prospects.

PubMed

Douglas, P; Hayes, E T; Williams, W B; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Walsh, K; O'Driscoll, M; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

2017-12-01

With the increase in composting asa sustainable waste management option, biological air pollution (bioaerosols) from composting facilities have become a cause of increasing concern due to their potential health impacts. Estimating community exposure to bioaerosols is problematic due to limitations in current monitoring methods. Atmospheric dispersion modelling can be used to estimate exposure concentrations, however several issues arise from the lack of appropriate bioaerosol data to use as inputs into models, and the complexity of the emission sources at composting facilities. This paper analyses current progress in using dispersion models for bioaerosols, examines the remaining problems and provides recommendations for future prospects in this area. A key finding is the urgent need for guidance for model users to ensure consistent bioaerosol modelling practices. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling prescribed fire impacts on local to regional air quality and potential climate effects

EPA Science Inventory

Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. The direct and indirect radiative forcings associated the particulate matter from biomass burning are also raising questions regarding the pot...

Air traffic simulation in chemistry-climate model EMAC 2.41: AirTraf 1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, Hiroshi; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Linke, Florian; Schaefer, Martin; Sasaki, Daisuke

2016-09-01

Mobility is becoming more and more important to society and hence air transportation is expected to grow further over the next decades. Reducing anthropogenic climate impact from aviation emissions and building a climate-friendly air transportation system are required for a sustainable development of commercial aviation. A climate optimized routing, which avoids climate-sensitive regions by re-routing horizontally and vertically, is an important measure for climate impact reduction. The idea includes a number of different routing strategies (routing options) and shows a great potential for the reduction. To evaluate this, the impact of not only CO2 but also non-CO2 emissions must be considered. CO2 is a long-lived gas, while non-CO2 emissions are short-lived and are inhomogeneously distributed. This study introduces AirTraf (version 1.0) that performs global air traffic simulations, including effects of local weather conditions on the emissions. AirTraf was developed as a new submodel of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Air traffic information comprises Eurocontrol's Base of Aircraft Data (BADA Revision 3.9) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine performance data. Fuel use and emissions are calculated by the total energy model based on the BADA methodology and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) fuel flow method. The flight trajectory optimization is performed by a genetic algorithm (GA) with respect to a selected routing option. In the model development phase, benchmark tests were performed for the great circle and flight time routing options. The first test showed that the great circle calculations were accurate to -0.004 %, compared to those calculated by the Movable Type script. The second test showed that the optimal solution found by the algorithm sufficiently converged to the theoretical true-optimal solution. The difference in flight time between the two solutions is less than 0.01 %. The dependence of

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, M.M.; Savage, W.Z.; Wieczorek, G.F.

1999-01-01

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108-120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10-20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105-107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (1010-1012 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt % dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ???220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (???220 m/s versus ???110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrissey, M. M.; Savage, W. Z.; Wieczorek, G. F.

1999-10-01

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108-120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10-20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105-107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (1010-1012 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt% dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ˜220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (˜220 m/s versus ˜110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations.

Potential future impacts on visual air quality for Class I areas

Treesearch

Gurule Nochumson; Mona J. Wecksung

1979-01-01

Visual air quality is most sensitive to degradation by air pollution in areas with good visibility. The protection of visual air quality in mandatory Class I Federal areas has been declared a national goal by Congress. Impacts on visual air quality are calculated for 154 Class I areas where visual air quality is considered an important value. These impacts are...

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Impact of air temperature on physically-based maximum precipitation estimation through change in moisture holding capacity of air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, K.; Ohara, N.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. Q.; Anderson, M. L.

2018-01-01

Impact of air temperature on the Maximum Precipitation (MP) estimation through change in moisture holding capacity of air was investigated. A series of previous studies have estimated the MP of 72-h basin-average precipitation over the American River watershed (ARW) in Northern California by means of the Maximum Precipitation (MP) estimation approach, which utilizes a physically-based regional atmospheric model. For the MP estimation, they have selected 61 severe storm events for the ARW, and have maximized them by means of the atmospheric boundary condition shifting (ABCS) and relative humidity maximization (RHM) methods. This study conducted two types of numerical experiments in addition to the MP estimation by the previous studies. First, the air temperature on the entire lateral boundaries of the outer model domain was increased uniformly by 0.0-8.0 °C with 0.5 °C increments for the two severest maximized historical storm events in addition to application of the ABCS + RHM method to investigate the sensitivity of the basin-average precipitation over the ARW to air temperature rise. In this investigation, a monotonous increase was found in the maximum 72-h basin-average precipitation over the ARW with air temperature rise for both of the storm events. The second numerical experiment used specific amounts of air temperature rise that is assumed to happen under future climate change conditions. Air temperature was increased by those specified amounts uniformly on the entire lateral boundaries in addition to application of the ABCS + RHM method to investigate the impact of air temperature on the MP estimate over the ARW under changing climate. The results in the second numerical experiment show that temperature increases in the future climate may amplify the MP estimate over the ARW. The MP estimate may increase by 14.6% in the middle of the 21st century and by 27.3% in the end of the 21st century compared to the historical period.

Public-health impact of outdoor air pollution for 2(nd) air pollution management policy in Seoul metropolitan area, Korea.

PubMed

Leem, Jong Han; Kim, Soon Tae; Kim, Hwan Cheol

2015-01-01

Air pollution contributes to mortality and morbidity. We estimated the impact of outdoor air pollution on public health in Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. Attributable cases of morbidity and mortality were estimated. Epidemiology-based exposure-response functions for a 10 μg/m3 increase in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) were used to quantify the effects of air pollution. Cases attributable to air pollution were estimated for mortality (adults ≥ 30 years), respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions (all ages), chronic bronchitis (all ages), and acute bronchitis episodes (≤18 years). Environmental exposure (PM2.5 and PM10) was modeled for each 3 km × 3 km. In 2010, air pollution caused 15.9% of total mortality or approximately 15,346 attributable cases per year. Particulate air pollution also accounted for: 12,511 hospitalized cases of respiratory disease; 20,490 new cases of chronic bronchitis (adults); 278,346 episodes of acute bronchitis (children). After performing the 2(nd) Seoul metropolitan air pollution management plan, the reducible death number associated with air pollution is 14,915 cases per year in 2024. We can reduce 57.9% of death associated with air pollution. This assessment estimates the public-health impacts of current patterns of air pollution. Although individual health risks of air pollution are relatively small, the public-health consequences are remarkable. Particulate air pollution remains a key target for public-health action in the Seoul metropolitan area. Our results, which have also been used for economic valuation, should guide decisions on the assessment of environmental health-policy options.

Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China.

PubMed

Wang, Haikun; Zhang, Yanxu; Zhao, Hongyan; Lu, Xi; Zhang, Yanxia; Zhu, Weimo; Nielsen, Chris P; Li, Xin; Zhang, Qiang; Bi, Jun; McElroy, Michael B

2017-09-29

Recent studies show that international trade affects global distributions of air pollution and public health. Domestic interprovincial trade has similar effects within countries, but has not been comprehensively investigated previously. Here we link four models to evaluate the effects of both international exports and interprovincial trade on PM 2.5 pollution and public health across China. We show that 50-60% of China's air pollutant emissions in 2007 were associated with goods and services consumed outside of the provinces where they were produced. Of an estimated 1.10 million premature deaths caused by PM 2.5 pollution throughout China, nearly 19% (208,500 deaths) are attributable to international exports. In contrast, interprovincial trade leads to improved air quality in developed coastal provinces with a net effect of 78,500 avoided deaths nationwide. However, both international export and interprovincial trade exacerbate the health burdens of air pollution in China's less developed interior provinces. Our results reveal trade to be a critical but largely overlooked consideration in effective regional air quality planning for China.International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.

Model study of the ship emissions impact on the air quality in the Adriatic/Ionian area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Poupkou, Anastasia; Liora, Natalia; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Giannaros, Christos; Melas, Dimitrios; Argiriou, Athanassios

2015-04-01

The increase of the ship traffic for touristic and commercial purposes is one of the EU Blue Growth targets. The Adriatic/Ionian is one of the sea-basin strategic areas for this target. The purpose of the study is the examination of the impact of the ship emissions on the gaseous and particulate pollutants concentrations in the Adriatic/Ionian area for which the current scientific knowledge is limited. The impact is simulated over a domain covering the Central and Eastern Mediterranean in 10 km resolution during a summer period (July) and a winter period (January) of the year 2012. The modeling system used consists of the photochemical model CAMx off line coupled with the meteorological model WRF. The zero-out modeling method is implemented involving CAMx simulations performed while including and omitting the ship emission data. The simulations are based on the European scale anthropogenic emission inventory of The Netherlands Organisation (TNO) for the reference year 2009. Natural emissions (NMVOCs from the vegetation, sea salt, wind-blown dust), estimated with the use of the Natural Emission MOdel (NEMO) developed by the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, are accounted for in the photochemical model runs. The spatial distribution of the resulting differences in the gaseous and particulate pollutant concentration fields for both emission scenarios are presented and discussed, providing an estimation of the contribution of ship emissions on the determination of the air quality in the Adriatic/Ionian countries

Assessment and prediction of air quality using fuzzy logic and autoregressive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbajal-Hernández, José Juan; Sánchez-Fernández, Luis P.; Carrasco-Ochoa, Jesús A.; Martínez-Trinidad, José Fco.

2012-12-01

In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been used for the treatment of environmental problems. This work, presents two models for assessment and prediction of air quality. First, we develop a new computational model for air quality assessment in order to evaluate toxic compounds that can harm sensitive people in urban areas, affecting their normal activities. In this model we propose to use a Sigma operator to statistically asses air quality parameters using their historical data information and determining their negative impact in air quality based on toxicity limits, frequency average and deviations of toxicological tests. We also introduce a fuzzy inference system to perform parameter classification using a reasoning process and integrating them in an air quality index describing the pollution levels in five stages: excellent, good, regular, bad and danger, respectively. The second model proposed in this work predicts air quality concentrations using an autoregressive model, providing a predicted air quality index based on the fuzzy inference system previously developed. Using data from Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System, we perform a comparison among air quality indices developed for environmental agencies and similar models. Our results show that our models are an appropriate tool for assessing site pollution and for providing guidance to improve contingency actions in urban areas.

Using proxies to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, V. E. P.; Colette, A.; Menut, L.

2015-10-01

Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projection. However, the computing cost of such method requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training dataset of deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed simple statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows concluding on the robustness of the climate impact on air quality. The climate benefit for PM2.5 was confirmed -0.96 (±0.18), -1.00 (±0.37), -1.16 ± (0.23) μg m-3, for resp. Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy and for the Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy regions a climate penalty on ozone was identified 10.11 (±3.22), 8.23 (±2.06), 9.23 (±1.13), 6.41 (±2.14), 7.43 (±2.02) μg m-3. This technique also allows selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections.

Evaluating impacts of air pollution in China on public health: Implications for future air pollution and energy policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoping; Mauzerall, Denise L.

Our objective is to establish the link between energy consumption and technologies, air pollution concentrations, and resulting impacts on public health in eastern China. We use Zaozhuang, a city in eastern China heavily dependent on coal, as a case study to quantify the impacts that air pollution in eastern China had on public health in 2000 and the benefits in improved air quality and health that could be obtained by 2020, relative to business-as-usual (BAU), through the implementation of best available emission control technology (BACT) and advanced coal gasification technologies (ACGT). We use an integrated assessment approach, utilizing state-of-the-science air quality and meteorological models, engineering, epidemiology, and economics, to achieve this objective. We find that total health damages due to year 2000 anthropogenic emissions from Zaozhuang, using the "willingness-to-pay" metric, was equivalent to 10% of Zaozhuang's GDP. If all health damages resulting from coal use were internalized in the market price of coal, the year 2000 price would have more than tripled. With no new air pollution controls implemented between 2000 and 2020 but with projected increases in energy use, we estimate health damages from air pollution exposure to be equivalent to 16% of Zaozhuang's projected 2020 GDP. BACT and ACGT (with only 24% penetration in Zaozhuang and providing 2% of energy needs in three surrounding municipalities) could reduce the potential health damage of air pollution in 2020 to 13% and 8% of projected GDP, respectively. Benefits to public health, of substantial monetary value, can be achieved through the use of BACT; health benefits from the use of ACGT could be even larger. Despite significant uncertainty associated with each element of the integrated assessment approach, we demonstrate that substantial benefits to public health could be achieved in this region of eastern China through the use of additional pollution controls and particularly from the

Local-Scale Exposure Assessment of Air Pollutants in Source-Impacted Neighborhoods in Detroit, MI (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vette, A. F.; Bereznicki, S.; Sobus, J.; Norris, G.; Williams, R.; Batterman, S.; Breen, M.; Isakov, V.; Perry, S.; Heist, D.; Community Action Against Asthma Steering Committee

2010-12-01

modeling techniques. Concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants will be measured and modeled indoors and outdoors of the children’s homes. Measurements will be made in a subset of homes each during fall 2010 and early spring 2011. High-time resolution measurements will be made of the chemical composition of traffic-related pollutants in the gas and particle phases adjacent to selected roadways. These data will be used to quantify the impact of traffic on the observed air quality data. Air pollutant dispersion and exposure models will be used in combination with measured data to estimate indoor/outdoor concentrations and personal exposures. Near-road spatial concentration patterns will be estimated at the children’s residences and schools across the study domain using dispersion modeling. These data will be used as input for an individual-level exposure model to estimate personal exposures from meteorology and questionnaire data on indoor sources, residential characteristics and operation, and time-location-activity patterns.

Impact of air pollutants on athletic performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierson, W.E.

Human controlled and observational studies both lead to the conclusion of air pollution adversely affecting athletic performance during training and competition. The dosage of various air pollutants during exercise is much higher due to the marked increase in ventilatory rate and concomitant nasal and oral breathing. This is particularly true for sulfur dioxide which is a highly water-soluble gas and is normally absorbed in the upper airway during nasal breathing. With heavy exercise, oral pharyngeal breathing is the predominant mode of breathing and much larger amounts of sulfur dioxide are delivered to the lower airway resulting in significant impact uponmore » the lower respiratory tract. More recently, several controlled human studies have shown that a combination of exercise and air pollutants such as ozone (O3) or sulfur dioxides (SO2) cause a significant increase in bronchoconstriction and air flow obstruction when compared to the same exposure at rest. In strenuous athletic competition such as the Olympic Games where small increments of time often determine the ultimate success of athletes, the impact of air pollutants and subsequent adverse ventilatory changes can affect athletic performance. 62 references.« less

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Min; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Jo, Duseong S.; Park, Rokjin J.; Flemming, Johannes; Emmons, Louisa K.; Bowman, Kevin W.; Henze, Daven K.; Davila, Yanko; Sudo, Kengo; Eiof Jonson, Jan; Tronstad Lund, Marianne; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank J.; Keating, Terry J.; Oetjen, Hilke; Payne, Vivienne H.

2017-05-01

those estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NOx emissions matter more than the other EAS O3 precursors to the North American O3, qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial-temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O3 exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O3 (TES, JPL-IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O3 intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O3 in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O3 during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O3 and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O3 by incorporating satellite O3 (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI-OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O3 source attribution still remains to be further explored.

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study.

PubMed

Huang, Min; Carmichael, Gregory R; Pierce, R Bradley; Jo, Duseong S; Park, Rokjin J; Flemming, Johannes; Emmons, Louisa K; Bowman, Kevin W; Henze, Daven K; Davila, Yanko; Sudo, Kengo; Jonson, Jan Eiof; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank J; Keating, Terry J; Oetjen, Hilke; Payne, Vivienne H

2017-05-08

estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NO x emissions matter more than the other EAS O 3 precursors to the North American O 3 , qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial-temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O 3 exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O 3 (TES, JPL-IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O 3 intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O 3 in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O 3 during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O 3 and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O 3 by incorporating satellite O 3 (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI-OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O 3 source attribution still remains to be further explored.

Factors influencing time-location patterns and their impact on estimates of exposure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air).

PubMed

Spalt, Elizabeth W; Curl, Cynthia L; Allen, Ryan W; Cohen, Martin; Williams, Kayleen; Hirsch, Jana A; Adar, Sara D; Kaufman, Joel D

2016-06-01

We assessed time-location patterns and the role of individual- and residential-level characteristics on these patterns within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) cohort and also investigated the impact of individual-level time-location patterns on individual-level estimates of exposure to outdoor air pollution. Reported time-location patterns varied significantly by demographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, and employment status. On average, Chinese participants reported spending significantly more time indoors and less time outdoors and in transit than White, Black, or Hispanic participants. Using a tiered linear regression approach, we predicted time indoors at home and total time indoors. Our model, developed using forward-selection procedures, explained 43% of the variability in time spent indoors at home, and incorporated demographic, health, lifestyle, and built environment factors. Time-weighted air pollution predictions calculated using recommended time indoors from USEPA overestimated exposures as compared with predictions made with MESA Air participant-specific information. These data fill an important gap in the literature by describing the impact of individual and residential characteristics on time-location patterns and by demonstrating the impact of population-specific data on exposure estimates.

The air quality and health impacts of domestic trans-boundary pollution in various regions of China.

PubMed

Gu, Y; Yim, S H L

2016-12-01

Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems in China. Literature has reported that outdoor air pollution leads to adverse health problems every year in China. Recent measurement studies found the important regional nature of particulates in China. Trans-boundary air pollution within China has yet to be fully understood. This study aimed to comprehensively understand the processes of domestic trans-boundary air pollution in China and to apportion the impacts of emissions in different regions on air quality and public health. We applied a state-of-the-art air quality model to simulate air quality in China and then adapted a form of integrated concentration-response function for China to estimate the resultant amount of premature mortality due to exposures to PM 2.5 . Our findings show that domestic trans-boundary impacts (TBI), on average, account for 27% of the total PM 2.5 in China. We estimated that outdoor air pollution caused ~870,000 (95% CI: 130,000-1500,000) premature mortalities in China in 2010, of which on average 18% are attributed to TBI. Among all the regions, North China is the largest contributor to TBI due to 41% of the health impacts of its emissions occurring in other regions. Taiwan (TW) is the smallest contributor to TBI occurring in China, contributing 2% of the national TBI, while TBI causes 22% of the premature mortalities due to outdoor air pollution in TW. Our findings pinpoint the significant impacts of TBI on public health in China, indicating the need for cross-region cooperation to mitigate the air quality impacts and the nation's resultant health problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Megacities on Regional Air Quality from MOPITT Observations and MOZART Model Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Hess, P. G.; Lamarque, J.; Pfister, G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Clerbaux, C.

2007-05-01

The emissions from large cities, such as Mexico City, Los Angeles and Tokyo, as well as densely populated regions in India, China, etc., can clearly be seen in the CO retrievals from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument on the Terra satellite and will be illustrated in this presentation. To assist in the flight planning and analysis of the MILAGRO field campaigns in Mexico during March 2006, MOPITT CO retrievals were assimilated in the global chemical transport model MOZART, using fire emissions based on satellite observations. To understand the impacts of Mexico City and other megacities on regional air quality, additional simulations of MOZART have been performed. The CO emissions from different types of sources (biomass burning, industry, etc.) are "tagged" in the model to show their relative contribution to the regional atmospheric composition. In addition, NO emissions from a single megacity or region are tagged to identify the contribution of ozone from a given source. The contribution from Mexico City pollution to the regional and global atmosphere will be compared to other megacities.

Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

PubMed

Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

2017-06-20

Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

INEEL AIR MODELING PROTOCOL ext

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. S. Staley; M. L. Abbott; P. D. Ritter

2004-12-01

Various laws stemming from the Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 require air emissions modeling. Modeling is used to ensure that air emissions from new projects and from modifications to existing facilities do not exceed certain standards. For radionuclides, any new airborne release must be modeled to show that downwind receptors do not receive exposures exceeding the dose limits and to determine the requirements for emissions monitoring. For criteria and toxic pollutants, emissions usually must first exceed threshold values before modeling of downwind concentrations is required. This document was prepared to provide guidancemore » for performing environmental compliance-driven air modeling of emissions from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory facilities. This document assumes that the user has experience in air modeling and dose and risk assessment. It is not intended to be a "cookbook," nor should all recommendations herein be construed as requirements. However, there are certain procedures that are required by law, and these are pointed out. It is also important to understand that air emissions modeling is a constantly evolving process. This document should, therefore, be reviewed periodically and revised as needed. The document is divided into two parts. Part A is the protocol for radiological assessments, and Part B is for nonradiological assessments. This document is an update of and supersedes document INEEL/INT-98-00236, Rev. 0, INEEL Air Modeling Protocol. This updated document incorporates changes in some of the rules, procedures, and air modeling codes that have occurred since the protocol was first published in 1998.« less

(AMD) ANALYSIS OF AIR QUALITY DATA NEAR ROADWAYS USING A DISPERSION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We used a dispersion model to analyze measurements made during a field study conducted by the U.S. EPA in July-August 2006, to estimate the impact of traffic emissions on air quality at distances of tens of meters from an 8 lane highway located in Raleigh, North Carolina. The air...

Impact of air pollutants from surface transport sources on human health: A modeling and epidemiological approach.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Preeti; Jain, Suresh

2015-10-01

This study adopted an integrated 'source-to-receptor' assessment paradigm in order to determine the effects of emissions from passenger transport on urban air quality and human health in the megacity, Delhi. The emission modeling was carried out for the base year 2007 and three alternate (ALT) policy scenarios along with a business as usual (BAU) scenario for the year 2021. An Activity-Structure-Emission Factor (ASF) framework was adapted for emission modeling, followed by a grid-wise air quality assessment using AERMOD and a health impact assessment using an epidemiological approach. It was observed that a 2021-ALT-III scenario resulted in a maximum concentration reduction of ~24%, ~42% and ~58% for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM), respectively, compared to a 2021-BAU scenario. Further, it results in significant reductions in respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) by 41% and 58% on exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations when compared to the 2021-BAU scenario, respectively. In other words, a mix of proposed policy interventions namely the full-phased introduction of the Integrated Mass Transit System, fixed bus speed, stringent vehicle emission norms and a hike in parking fees for private vehicles would help in strengthening the capability of passenger transport to cater to a growing transport demand with a minimum health burden in the Delhi region. Further, the study estimated that the transport of goods would be responsible for ~5.5% additional VKT in the 2021-BAU scenario; however, it will contribute ~49% and ~55% additional NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, in the Delhi region. Implementation of diesel particulate filters for goods vehicles in the 2021-ALT-IV-O scenario would help in the reduction of ~87% of PM2.5 concentration, compared to the 2021-BAU scenario; translating into a gain of 1267 and 505 DALY per million people from exposure to PM2.5 and NO

Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

Air Quality Modeling

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the Environmental Protection Agency’s Transport Rule proposal (now known as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule).

Aerosol Health Impact Source Attribution Studies with the CMAQ Adjoint Air Quality Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, M. D.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is an air pollutant consisting of a mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. Knowledge of the sources and distributions of PM2.5 is important for many reasons, two of which are that PM2.5 has an adverse effect on human health and also an effect on climate change. Recent studies have suggested that health benefits resulting from a unit decrease in black carbon (BC) are four to nine times larger than benefits resulting from an equivalent change in PM2.5 mass. The goal of this thesis is to quantify the role of emissions from different sectors and different locations in governing the total health impacts, risk, and maximum individual risk of exposure to BC both nationally and regionally in the US. We develop and use the CMAQ adjoint model to quantify the role of emissions from all modeled sectors, times, and locations on premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC. From a national analysis, we find that damages resulting from anthropogenic emissions of BC are strongly correlated with population and premature death. However, we find little correlation between damages and emission magnitude, suggesting that controls on the largest emissions may not be the most efficient means of reducing damages resulting from BC emissions. Rather, the best proxy for locations with damaging BC emissions is locations where premature deaths occur. Onroad diesel and nonroad vehicle emissions are the largest contributors to premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC, while onroad gasoline emissions cause the highest deaths per amount emitted. Additionally, emissions in fall and winter contribute to more premature deaths (and more per amount emitted) than emissions in spring and summer. From a regional analysis, we find that emissions from outside each of six urban areas account for 7% to 27% of the premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC within the region. Within the region encompassing New York City and Philadelphia

Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

The impact of the congestion charging scheme on air quality in London. Part 1. Emissions modeling and analysis of air pollution measurements.

PubMed

Kelly, Frank; Anderson, H Ross; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Barratt, Ben; Beevers, Sean; Derwent, Dick; Green, David; Mudway, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul

2011-04-01

provide a quantitative estimation of changes in pollution levels arising from the introduction of the CCS, the strong signals that were identified were considered in the context of other results from the study. The third method, bivariate polar plots, proved useful. The plots revealed important characteristics of the data from the only roadside monitoring site within the CCZ and highlighted the importance of considering prevailing weather conditions when positioning a roadside monitor. The technique would benefit from further development, however, in transforming the qualitative assessment of change into a quantitative assessment and including an estimate of uncertainty. Research is ongoing to develop this method in air-quality time-series studies. Overall, using a range of measurement and modeling approaches, we found evidence of small changes in air quality after introduction of the CCS. These include small decreases in PM10, NO, and CO. The possibility that some of these effects might reflect more general changes in London's air quality is suggested by the findings of somewhat similar changes in geometric means for weekends, when the CCS was not operating. However, since some evidence suggests that the CCS also had an impact on traffic volume on weekends, the CCS remains as one possible explanation for the observed pattern of changes in pollutant concentrations. In addition, the CCS was just one of a number of traffic and emission reduction schemes introduced in London over the 4-year study period; if the other measures had an impact in central London, they might partly explain our findings. Although not the aim of this study, it is important to consider how the trends we observed might be translated into health effects. For example, given that London already has NO2 concentrations in excess of the permitted limit value, we do not know what the effects of an increase in NO2 created by diesel-exhaust after-treatment for particles might mean for health. Further, although

Air Quality Modeling | Air Quality Planning & Standards | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2016-06-08

The basic mission of the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards is to preserve and improve the quality of our nation's air. One facet of accomplishing this goal requires that new and existing air pollution sources be modeled for compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

2015-05-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

Dosimetric impact of an air passage on intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer.

PubMed

Okamoto, Hiroyuki; Wakita, Akihisa; Nakamura, Satoshi; Nishioka, Shie; Aikawa, Ako; Kato, Toru; Abe, Yoshihisa; Kobayashi, Kazuma; Inaba, Koji; Murakami, Naoya; Itami, Jun

2016-11-01

The brachytherapy dose calculations used in treatment planning systems (TPSs) have conventionally been performed assuming homogeneous water. Using measurements and a Monte Carlo simulation, we evaluated the dosimetric impact of an air passage on brachytherapy for bronchus cancer. To obtain the geometrical characteristics of an air passage, we analyzed the anatomical information from CT images of patients who underwent intraluminal brachytherapy using a high-dose-rate 192 Ir source (MicroSelectron V2r®, Nucletron). Using an ionization chamber, we developed a measurement system capable of measuring the peripheral dose with or without an air cavity surrounding the catheter. Air cavities of five different radii (0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1.25 and 1.5 cm) were modeled by cylindrical tubes surrounding the catheter. A Monte Carlo code (GEANT4) was also used to evaluate the dosimetric impact of the air cavity. Compared with dose calculations in homogeneous water, the measurements and GEANT4 indicated a maximum overdose of 5-8% near the surface of the air cavity (with the maximum radius of 1.5 cm). Conversely, they indicated a minimum overdose of ~1% in the region 3-5 cm from the cavity surface for the smallest radius of 0.3 cm. The dosimetric impact depended on the size and the distance of the air passage, as well as the length of the treatment region. Based on dose calculations in water, the TPS for intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer had an unexpected overdose of 3-5% for a mean radius of 0.75 cm. This study indicates the need for improvement in dose calculation accuracy with respect to intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Dosimetric impact of an air passage on intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer

PubMed Central

Okamoto, Hiroyuki; Wakita, Akihisa; Nakamura, Satoshi; Nishioka, Shie; Aikawa, Ako; Kato, Toru; Abe, Yoshihisa; Kobayashi, Kazuma; Inaba, Koji; Murakami, Naoya; Itami, Jun

2016-01-01

The brachytherapy dose calculations used in treatment planning systems (TPSs) have conventionally been performed assuming homogeneous water. Using measurements and a Monte Carlo simulation, we evaluated the dosimetric impact of an air passage on brachytherapy for bronchus cancer. To obtain the geometrical characteristics of an air passage, we analyzed the anatomical information from CT images of patients who underwent intraluminal brachytherapy using a high-dose-rate 192Ir source (MicroSelectron V2r®, Nucletron). Using an ionization chamber, we developed a measurement system capable of measuring the peripheral dose with or without an air cavity surrounding the catheter. Air cavities of five different radii (0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1.25 and 1.5 cm) were modeled by cylindrical tubes surrounding the catheter. A Monte Carlo code (GEANT4) was also used to evaluate the dosimetric impact of the air cavity. Compared with dose calculations in homogeneous water, the measurements and GEANT4 indicated a maximum overdose of 5–8% near the surface of the air cavity (with the maximum radius of 1.5 cm). Conversely, they indicated a minimum overdose of ~1% in the region 3–5 cm from the cavity surface for the smallest radius of 0.3 cm. The dosimetric impact depended on the size and the distance of the air passage, as well as the length of the treatment region. Based on dose calculations in water, the TPS for intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer had an unexpected overdose of 3–5% for a mean radius of 0.75 cm. This study indicates the need for improvement in dose calculation accuracy with respect to intraluminal brachytherapy for bronchus cancer. PMID:27605630

Origin, extent and health impacts of air pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S.; Im, U.; Mezuman, K.

2017-12-01

Southern Africa produces about a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles, their origin, chemical composition and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. These research questions motivated the NASA field campaign ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS). ORACLES is a five year investigation with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP) designed to study key processes that determine the climate impacts of African biomass burning aerosols. The first IOP has been carried out in 2016. The main focus of the field campaign are aerosol-cloud interactions, however in our first study related to this area we will investigate the aerosol plume itself, its origin, extend and its resulting health impacts. Here we will discuss results using the global mesoscale model NASA GEOS-5 in conjunction with the NASA GISS-E2 climate model to investigate climate and health impacts that are directly related to the anthropogenic fire activities in Sub-Saharan Africa. Focus will be on the SH winter seasons biomass burning events, its contribution to Sub-Saharan air pollution in relationship to other air-pollution sources and its resulting premature mortality.

Modeled Full-Flight Aircraft Emissions Impacts on Air Quality and Their Sensitivity to Grid Resolution

EPA Science Inventory

Aviation is a unique anthropogenic source with four-dimensional varying emissions, peaking at cruise altitudes (9–12 km). Aircraft emission budgets in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere region and their potential impacts on upper troposphere and surface air quality ar...

Regional photochemical air quality modeling in the Mexico-US border area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendoza, A.; Russell, A.G.; Mejia, G.M.

1998-12-31

The Mexico-United States border area has become an increasingly important region due to its commercial, industrial and urban growth. As a result, environmental concerns have risen. Treaties like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have further motivated the development of environmental impact assessment in the area. Of particular concern are air quality, and how the activities on both sides of the border contribute to its degradation. This paper presents results of applying a three-dimensional photochemical airshed model to study air pollution dynamics along the Mexico-United States border. In addition, studies were conducted to assess how size resolution impacts themore » model performance. The model performed within acceptable statistic limits using 12.5 x 12.5 km{sup 2} grid cells, and the benefits using finer grids were limited. Results were further used to assess the influence of grid-cell size on the modeling of control strategies, where coarser grids lead to significant loss of information.« less

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study

PubMed Central

Huang, Min; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Jo, Duseong S.; Park, Rokjin J.; Flemming, Johannes; Emmons, Louisa K.; Bowman, Kevin W.; Henze, Daven K.; Davila, Yanko; Sudo, Kengo; Jonson, Jan Eiof; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank J.; Keating, Terry J.; Oetjen, Hilke; Payne, Vivienne H.

2018-01-01

than those estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NOx emissions matter more than the other EAS O3 precursors to the North American O3, qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial–temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O3 exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O3 (TES, JPL–IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O3 intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O3 in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O3 during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O3 and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O3 by incorporating satellite O3 (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute–Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI–OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O3 source attribution still remains to be further explored. PMID:29780406

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Impact of the air gap in nanowire array transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mativetsky, Jeffrey; Yang, Tong; Mehta, Jeremy

Organic and inorganic semiconducting nanowires are promising for flexible electronic, energy harvesting, and sensing applications. Nanowire arrays processed from solution are particularly attractive for their ease of processing coupled with their potential for high performance. Random stacking has been observed, however, to hinder the collective electrical performance of such nanowire arrays. Here, we employ solution-processed organic semiconducting nanowires as a model system to assess the impact of the air gap that exists under a large portion of the active material in nanowire array transistors. Confocal Raman spectroscopy is used to non-invasively quantify the average air gap thickness which is found to be unexpectedly large - two to three times the nanowire diameter. This substantial air gap acts as an additional dielectric layer that diminishes the buildup of charge carriers, and can affect the measured charge carrier mobility and current on/off ratio by more than one order of magnitude. These results establish the importance of taking the air gap into account when fabricating and analyzing the performance of transistors based on one-dimensional nanostructures, such as organic and inorganic nanowires, or carbon nanotubes. NSF CAREER award DMR-1555028, NSF CMMI-1537648 , NSF MRI CMMI-1429176.

A Modeling Investigation of Human Exposure to Select Traffic-Related Air Pollutants in the Tampa Area: Spatiotemporal Distributions of Concentrations, Social Distributions of Exposures, and Impacts of Urban Design on Both

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Haofei

Increasing vehicle dependence in the United States has resulted in substantial emissions of traffic-related air pollutants that contribute to the deterioration of urban air quality. Exposure to urban air pollutants trigger a number of public health concerns, including the potential of inequality of exposures and health effects among population subgroups. To better understand the impact of traffic-related pollutants on air quality, exposure, and exposure inequality, modeling methods that can appropriately characterize the spatiotemporally resolved concentration distributions of traffic-related pollutants need to be improved. These modeling methods can then be used to investigate the impacts of urban design and transportation management choices on air quality, pollution exposures, and related inequality. This work will address these needs with three objectives: 1) to improve modeling methods for investigating interactions between city and transportation design choices and air pollution exposures, 2) to characterize current exposures and the social distribution of exposures to traffic-related air pollutants for the case study area of Hillsborough County, Florida, and 3) to determine expected impacts of urban design and transportation management choices on air quality, air pollution exposures, and exposure inequality. To achieve these objectives, the impacts of a small-scale transportation management project, specifically the '95 Express' high occupancy toll lane project, on pollutant emissions and nearby air quality was investigated. Next, a modeling method capable of characterizing spatiotemporally resolved pollutant emissions, concentrations, and exposures was developed and applied to estimate the impact of traffic-related pollutants on exposure and exposure inequalities among several population subgroups in Hillsborough County, Florida. Finally, using these results as baseline, the impacts of sprawl and compact urban forms, as well as vehicle fleet electrification

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

China's Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model.

PubMed

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-09-18

Background : Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China's economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods : Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM 2.5 . Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results : It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM 2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions : Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables.

Health Impact Modelling of Active Travel Visions for England and Wales Using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM)

PubMed Central

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Background Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to

Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool (ITHIM).

PubMed

Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott

2013-01-01

Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications

A Method for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Air Traffic Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Bonesteel, Charles

1998-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety and operational impacts of emerging air traffic technologies. The approach integrates traditional reliability models of the system infrastructure with models that analyze the environment within which the system operates, and models of how the system responds to different scenarios. Products of the analysis include safety measures such as predicted incident rates, predicted accident statistics, and false alarm rates; and operational availability data. The report demonstrates the methodology with an analysis of the operation of the Center-TRACON Automation System at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

2013-04-01

Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

Impact of Air Pollution to Genome of Newborns.

PubMed

Šrám, Radim J; Rössner, Pavel; Rössnerová, Andrea; Dostál, Miroslav; Milcová, Alena; Švecová, Vlasta; Pulkrabová, Jana; Hajšlová, Jana; Velemínský, Miloš

2016-12-01

The Northern Moravia Region is the most polluted region in the Czech Republic by particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (c-PAHs) as benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) by heavy industry and local heating. This specific situation was used to study the impact of air pollution on newborns in the exposed Karviná district and control district of České Budějovice. Biological material from newborns and mothers was collected in summer and winter seasons. This project is highly detailed, analyzing the concentrations of PAHs in ambient air and diet, in human breast milk, in the urine of mothers and newborns, using biomarkers of genetic damage as DNA adducts and gene expression analysis, biomarkers of oxidative stress as 8-oxodG adducts and lipid peroxidation (15-F2t-isoprostane immunoassay). All 400 children, for whom the biomarker data at delivery were obtained, will be followed for morbidity up to 2 years of age. The Northern Moravia Region seems to be to be a model area for studying the long-term impact of human health exposure to c-PAHs. Our observations will indicate possible genetic and oxidative damage in newborns, which may significantly affect their morbidity. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2016.

Acute Health Impact of Air Pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, T.; Zhao, Y.; Zheng, M.

2014-12-01

Air pollution not only has long term health impact, but can affect health through acute exposure. This paper, using air pollution index (API) as overall evaluation of air quality, blood pressure and vital capacity as health outcomes, focuses on the acute health impact of air pollution in China. Current result suggests that after controlling smoking history, occupational exposure, income and education, API is positively associated with blood pressure and negatively associated with vital capacity. The associations became stronger for people with hypertension or pulmonary functional diseases, which indicates that these people are more sensitive to air pollution. Among three pollutants which API measures, that is inhalable particles (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), PM10 is most statistically associated with blood pressure increase and vital capacity decrease. Further study will focusing on the following two questions. The first question is how various time lags affect the associations among API, blood pressure and vital capacity. The second question is how differently people in various cohorts reacts to acute exposure to air pollution. The differences in reactions of blood pressure and vital capacity between people in urban and rural areas, genders, various age cohorts, distinct income and education groups will be further studied.

The Impacts of a 2-Degree Rise in Global Temperatures upon Gas-Phase Air Pollutants in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Laura; Josse, Béatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume

2014-05-01

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) in 2009 ratified the Copenhagen Accord, which "recognises the scientific view that" global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. Due to the fact that a 2-degree limit has been frequently referred to by policy makers in the context of the Copenhagen Accord and many other high-level policy statements, it is important that the impacts of this 2-degree increase in temperature are adequately analysed. To this end, the European Union sponsored the project IMPACT2C, which uses a multi-disciplinary international team to assess a wide variety of impacts of a 2-degree rise in global temperatures. For example, this future increase in temperature is expected to have a significant influence upon meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and wind direction and intensity; which will in turn affect the production, deposition, and distribution of air pollutants. For the first part of the air quality analysis within the IMPACT2C project, the impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe was studied using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2005 were used for all simulations in order to isolate the impact of meteorology and assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The differences between the simulations that use reanalysis of past observation data and the simulations that use global climate model output show how global climate models modify climate hindcasts by boundary conditions inputs: information that is necessary in order to interpret simulations of future climate. The baseline results were assessed by comparison with AirBase (Version 7) measurement data, and were

Air quality modeling of selected aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in the Houston urban and industrial airshed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coarfa, Violeta Florentina

2007-12-01

Air toxics, also called hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), pose a serious threat to human health and the environment. Their study is important in the Houston area, where point sources, mostly located along the Ship Channel, mobile and area sources contribute to large emissions of such toxic pollutants. Previous studies carried out in this area found dangerous levels of different HAPs in the atmosphere. This thesis presents several studies that were performed for the aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in the HGA. For these studies we developed several tools: (1) a refined chemical mechanism, which explicitly represents 18 aromatic air toxics that were lumped under two model species by the previous version, based on their reactivity with the hydroxyl radical; (2) an engineering version of an existing air toxics photochemical model that enables us to perform much faster long-term simulations compared to the original model, that leads to a 8--9 times improvement in the running time across different computing platforms; (3) a combined emission inventory based on the available emission databases. Using the developed tools, we quantified the mobile source impact on a few selected air toxics, and analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of selected aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in a few regions within the Houston area; these regions were characterized by different emissions and environmental conditions.

Modeling urban air pollution in Budapest using WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovács, Attila; Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Mészáros, Róbert

2017-04-01

Air pollution is a major problem for urban areas since the industrial revolution, including Budapest, the capital and largest city of Hungary. The main anthropogenic sources of air pollutants are industry, traffic and residential heating. In this study, we investigated the contribution of major industrial point sources to the urban air pollution in Budapest. We used the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather prediction system online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem, version 3.6).The model was configured with three nested domains with grid spacings of 15, 5 and 1 km, representing Central Europe, the Carpathian Basin and Budapest with its surrounding area. Emission data was obtained from the National Environmental Information System. The point source emissions were summed in their respective cells in the second nested domain according to latitude-longitude coordinates. The main examined air pollutants were carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), from which the secondary compound, ozone (O3) forms through chemical reactions. Simulations were performed under different weather conditions and compared to observations from the automatic monitoring site of the Hungarian Air Quality Network. Our results show that the industrial emissions have a relatively weak role in the urban background air pollution, confirming the effect of industrial developments and regulations in the recent decades. However, a few significant industrial sources and their impact area has been demonstrated.

Impact analysis of traffic-related air pollution based on real-time traffic and basic meteorological information.

PubMed

Pan, Long; Yao, Enjian; Yang, Yang

2016-12-01

With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China, traffic-related air pollution has become a major component of air pollution which constantly jeopardizes public health. This study proposes an integrated framework for estimating the concentration of traffic-related air pollution with real-time traffic and basic meteorological information and also for further evaluating the impact of traffic-related air pollution. First, based on the vehicle emission factor models sensitive to traffic status, traffic emissions are calculated according to the real-time link-based average traffic speed, traffic volume, and vehicular fleet composition. Then, based on differences in meteorological conditions, traffic pollution sources are divided into line sources and point sources, and the corresponding methods to determine the dynamic affecting areas are also proposed. Subsequently, with basic meteorological data, Gaussian dispersion model and puff integration model are applied respectively to estimate the concentration of traffic-related air pollution. Finally, the proposed estimating framework is applied to calculate the distribution of CO concentration in the main area of Beijing, and the population exposure is also calculated to evaluate the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health. Results show that there is a certain correlation between traffic indicators (i.e., traffic speed and traffic intensity) of the affecting area and traffic-related CO concentration of the target grid, which indicates the methods to determine the affecting areas are reliable. Furthermore, the reliability of the proposed estimating framework is verified by comparing the predicted and the observed ambient CO concentration. In addition, results also show that the traffic-related CO concentration is higher in morning and evening peak hours, and has a heavier impact on public health within the Fourth Ring Road of Beijing due to higher population density and higher CO

Immediate impact of smoke-free laws on indoor air quality.

PubMed

Lee, Kiyoung; Hahn, Ellen J; Riker, Carol; Head, Sara; Seithers, Peggy

2007-09-01

Smoke-free laws significantly impact indoor air quality. However, the temporal effects of these laws on indoor air pollution have not been determined. This paper assesses the temporal impact of one smoke-free law on indoor air quality. This quasi-experimental study compared the indoor air quality of nine hospitality venues and one bingo hall in Georgetown, Kentucky, before and after implementation of a 100% smoke-free workplace law. We made real-time measurements of particulate matter with 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter or smaller (PM2.5). Among the nine Georgetown hospitality venues, the average indoor PM2.5 concentration was 84 microg/m3 before the law took effect. The average indoor PM2.5 concentrations in nine compliant venues significantly decreased to 18 microg/m3 one week after the law took effect. Three venues having 82 microg/m3 before the law had significantly lower levels from the first day the law was implemented, and the low level was maintained. Compliance with the law is critical to achieving clean indoor air. Indoor air pollution in the bingo hall was not reduced until the establishment decided to comply with the law. The smoke-free law showed immediate impact on indoor air quality.

A Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A.; Martin, Randall V.; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D.; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

2017-01-01

Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the global distribution of NO2 exposure and associated impacts on global health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO2) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n=10,000) demonstrated robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R2 within 11%) where NO2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions but major roads within 100m and satellite-derived NO2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model will be made available and can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO2 monitoring data or models. PMID:28520422

Modeling and Impacts of Traffic Emissions on Air Toxics Concentrations near Roadways

EPA Science Inventory

The dispersion formulation incorporated in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s AERMOD regulatory dispersion model is used to estimate the contribution of traffic-generated emissions of select VOCs – benzene, 1,3-butadiene, toluene – to ambient air concentrations at downwin...

Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

2016-09-01

One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

Impacts of Transit-Oriented Compact-Growth on Air Pollutant Concentrations and Exposures in the Tampa Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-03-31

Amy L. Stuart (ORCID # 0000-0003-1229-493) The objective of this study was to model the potential impacts of alternative transit-oriented urban design scenarios on community exposures to roadway air pollution. We used a modeling framework developed p...

Modelling Hot Air Balloons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brimicombe, M. W.

1991-01-01

A macroscopic way of modeling hot air balloons using a Newtonian approach is presented. Misleading examples using a car tire and the concept of hot air rising are discussed. Pressure gradient changes in the atmosphere are used to explain how hot air balloons work. (KR)

Using aircraft and satellite observations to improve regulatory air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canty, T. P.; Vinciguerra, T.; Anderson, D. C.; Carpenter, S. F.; Goldberg, D. L.; Hembeck, L.; Montgomery, L.; Liu, X.; Salawitch, R. J.; Dickerson, R. R.

2014-12-01

Federal and state agencies rely on EPA approved models to develop attainment strategies that will bring states into compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We will describe modifications to the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) frameworks motivated by analysis of NASA satellite and aircraft measurements. Observations of tropospheric column NO2 from OMI have already led to the identification of an important deficiency in the chemical mechanisms used by models; data collected during the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign has been instrumental in devising an improved representation of the chemistry of nitrogen species. Our recent work has focused on the use of: OMI observations of tropospheric O3 to assess and improve the representation of boundary conditions used by AQ models, OMI NO2 to derive a top down NOx emission inventory from commercial shipping vessels that affect air quality in the Eastern U.S., and OMI HCHO to assess the C5H8 emission inventories provided by bioegenic emissions models. We will describe how these OMI-driven model improvements are being incorporated into the State Implementation Plans (SIPs) being prepared for submission to EPA in summer 2015 and how future modeling efforts may be impacted by our findings.

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.; Jiang, X.

2017-12-01

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiang; Jiang, Xujia; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven J; Zhao, Hongyan; Geng, Guannan; Feng, Tong; Zheng, Bo; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G; Ni, Ruijing; Brauer, Michael; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Huo, Hong; Liu, Zhu; Pan, Da; Kan, Haidong; Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Kebin; Guan, Dabo

2017-03-29

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM 2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM 2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM 2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Jiang, Xujia; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven J.; Zhao, Hongyan; Geng, Guannan; Feng, Tong; Zheng, Bo; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.; Ni, Ruijing; Brauer, Michael; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V.; Huo, Hong; Liu, Zhu; Pan, Da; Kan, Haidong; Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Kebin; Guan, Dabo

2017-03-01

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Urgency to Assess the Health Impact of Ambient Air Pollution in China.

PubMed

Yang, Bo-Yi; Liu, Yimin; Hu, Li-Wen; Zeng, Xiao-Wen; Dong, Guang-Hui

2017-01-01

As the world's second-largest economy, China is going on suffering from environmental pollution, especially for ambient air pollution, which has become a major threat to public health; public awareness of the detrimental effects of air pollution on health is increasing-particularly in relation to haze days. Considering the nonlinear relationship of ambient air pollution exposure and health impacts, and the differences in specific sources of air pollution with those in North America and Europe, conducting health impact assessments of ambient air pollution in China has thus become an urgent task for public health practitioners. Systematic review of the health effects of exposure to ambient air pollution from quantitative studies conducted in Chinese could provide vital information for epidemiology-based health impact assessments and the implementation of a national environmental protection policy.

Impact of aircraft emissions on air quality in the vicinity of airports. Volume II. An updated model assessment of aircraft generated air pollution at LAX, JFK, and ORD. Final report Jan 1978-Jul 1980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamartino, R.J.; Smith, D.G.; Bremer, S.A.

1980-07-01

This report documents the results of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality study which has been conducted to assess the impact of aircraft emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the vicinity of airports. This assessment includes the results of recent modeling and monitoring efforts at Washington National (DCA), Los Angeles International (LAX), Dulles International (IAD), and Lakeland, Florida airports and an updated modeling of aircraft generated pollution at LAX, John F. Kennedy (JFK) and Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airports. The Airport Vicinity Air Pollution (AVAP) model which was designed formore » use at civil airports was used in this assessment. In addition the results of the application of the military version of the AVAP model the Air Quality Assessment Model (AQAM), are summarized. Both the results of the pollution monitoring analyses in Volume I and the modeling studies in Volume II suggest that: maximum hourly average CO concentrations from aircraft are unlikely to exceed 5 parts per million (ppm) in areas of public exposure and are thus small in comparison to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35 ppm; maximum hourly HC concentrations from aircraft can exceed 0.25 ppm over an area several times the size of the airport; and annual average NO2 concentrations from aircraft are estimated to contribute only 10 to 20 percent of the NAAQS limit level.« less

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Pinder, R. W.

2015-11-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions and the rest of the world emissions are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in the future but result in positive radiative forcing. Surface PM2.5 is reduced by ~ 2 μg m-3 on average over the US, and surface ozone by ~ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the US, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (~ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduces the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) by both aerosols direct and indirect forcing: total RF is ~ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe; ~ 0.8 W m-2 over the US. Under the hypothetical climate policy, future US energy relies less on coal and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it leads to climate dis-benefits over the US. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m-2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multi-national efforts to reduce GHGs emissions and (2) to target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the

Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2005-01-01

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

The impact of European measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnock, S.; Butt, E. W.; Richardson, T.; Mann, G.; Forster, P.; Haywood, J. M.; Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Johnson, C.; Bellouin, N.; Spracklen, D. V.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C.

2015-12-01

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, resulting in improved air quality and benefits to human health but also an unintended impact on regional climate. Here we used a coupled chemistry-climate model and a new policy relevant emission scenario to determine the impact of air pollutant emission reductions over Europe. The emission scenario shows that a combination of technological improvements and end-of-pipe abatement measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors reduced European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon and organic carbon by 53%, 59% and 32% respectively. We estimate that these emission reductions decreased European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, black carbon (BC) by 56% and particulate organic matter (POM) by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 107,000 (40,000-172,000, 5-95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer across the EU member states. The decrease in aerosol concentrations caused a positive all-sky aerosol radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere over Europe of 2.3±0.06 W m-2 and a positive clear-sky forcing of 1.7±0.05 W m-2. Additionally, the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe increased by 3.3±0.07 W m-2 under all-sky and by 2.7±0.05 W m-2 under clear-sky conditions. Reductions in BC concentrations caused a 1 Wm-2 reduction in atmospheric absorption. We use an energy budget approximation to show that the aerosol induced radiative changes caused both temperature and precipitation to increase globally and over Europe. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as altered the regional radiative balance and climate.

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate public health impacts of PM2.5 from individual power plants.

PubMed

Buonocore, Jonathan J; Dong, Xinyi; Spengler, John D; Fu, Joshua S; Levy, Jonathan I

2014-07-01

We estimated PM2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM2.5, SO2, and NOx for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration-response functions for PM2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were $130,000/ton for primary PM2.5 (range: $22,000-230,000), $28,000/ton for SO2 (range: $19,000-33,000), and $16,000/ton for NOx (range: $7100-26,000). Impacts of NOx were a median of 34% (range: 20%-75%) from ammonium nitrate and 66% (range: 25%-79%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NOx enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Skating on a Film of Air: Drops Impacting on a Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolinski, John M.; Rubinstein, Shmuel M.; Mandre, Shreyas; Brenner, Michael P.; Weitz, David A.; Mahadevan, L.

2012-02-01

The commonly accepted description of drops impacting on a surface typically ignores the essential role of the air that is trapped between the impacting drop and the surface. Here we describe a new imaging modality that is sensitive to the behavior right at the surface. We show that a very thin film of air, only a few tens of nanometers thick, remains trapped between the falling drop and the surface as the drop spreads. The thin film of air serves to lubricate the drop enabling the fluid to skate on the air film laterally outward at surprisingly high velocities, consistent with theoretical predictions. Eventually this thin film of air breaks down as the fluid wets the surface via a spinodal-like mechanism. Our results show that the dynamics of impacting drops are much more complex than previously thought, with a rich array of unexpected phenomena that require rethinking classic paradigms.

Prediction of Indoor Air Exposure from Outdoor Air Quality Using an Artificial Neural Network Model for Inner City Commercial Buildings.

PubMed

Challoner, Avril; Pilla, Francesco; Gill, Laurence

2015-12-01

NO₂ and particulate matter are the air pollutants of most concern in Ireland, with possible links to the higher respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity rates found in the country compared to the rest of Europe. Currently, air quality limits in Europe only cover outdoor environments yet the quality of indoor air is an essential determinant of a person's well-being, especially since the average person spends more than 90% of their time indoors. The modelling conducted in this research aims to provide a framework for epidemiological studies by the use of publically available data from fixed outdoor monitoring stations to predict indoor air quality more accurately. Predictions are made using two modelling techniques, the Personal-exposure Activity Location Model (PALM), to predict outdoor air quality at a particular building, and Artificial Neural Networks, to model the indoor/outdoor relationship of the building. This joint approach has been used to predict indoor air concentrations for three inner city commercial buildings in Dublin, where parallel indoor and outdoor diurnal monitoring had been carried out on site. This modelling methodology has been shown to provide reasonable predictions of average NO₂ indoor air quality compared to the monitored data, but did not perform well in the prediction of indoor PM2.5 concentrations. Hence, this approach could be used to determine NO₂ exposures more rigorously of those who work and/or live in the city centre, which can then be linked to potential health impacts.

On the accuracy of the rate coefficients used in plasma fluid models for breakdown in air

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kourtzanidis, Konstantinos, E-mail: kkourt@utexas.edu; Raja, Laxminarayan L., E-mail: lraja@mail.utexas.edu

2016-07-15

The electrical breakdown of air depends on the balance between creation and loss of charged particles. In fluid models, datasets of the rate coefficients used are obtained either from fits to experimental data or by solutions of the Boltzmann equation. Here, we study the accuracy of the commonly used models for ionization and attachment frequencies and their impact on the prediction of the breakdown threshold for air. We show that large errors can occur depending on the model and propose the most accurate dataset available for modeling of air breakdown phenomena.

Comparison of Health Impact of Air Pollution Between China and Other Countries.

PubMed

Tian, Linwei; Sun, Shengzhi

2017-01-01

Air pollution is the world's largest single environmental risk according to the World Health Organization (WHO), which caused around seven million deaths in 2012. Extensive epidemiological studies have been carried out worldwide to examine the health impacts of ambient air pollution, consistently demonstrating significant health impacts of ambient air pollution. Air pollution problem in China is especially serious; it has become the fourth biggest threat to the health of the Chinese people. In this review, we summarized existing literature, compared health impact of air pollution between China and other countries, and found substantial heterogeneity in the risk estimates of air pollution. The effect heterogeneities may be due to the differences in the characteristics of populations (e.g., the proportion of the elder population and people with preexisting diseases), exposure profile (e.g., air pollution concentrations and composition), and regional climate. Although the magnitude of relative risk estimates of air pollution is generally similar with that in other parts of the world, air pollution is one of China's most serious environmental health problems given the huge number of people exposed to high concentration levels of air pollution in China.

Air pollution-induced health impacts on the national economy of China: demonstration of a computable general equilibrium approach.

PubMed

Wan, Yue; Yang, Hongwei; Masui, Toshihiko

2005-01-01

At the present time, ambient air pollution is a serious public health problem in China. Based on the concentration-response relationship provided by international and domestic epidemiologic studies, the authors estimated the mortality and morbidity induced by the ambient air pollution of 2000. To address the mechanism of the health impact on the national economy, the authors applied a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, named AIM/Material China, containing 39 production sectors and 32 commodities. AIM/Material analyzes changes of the gross domestic product (GDP), final demand, and production activity originating from health damages. If ambient air quality met Grade II of China's air quality standard in 2000, then the avoidable GDP loss would be 0.38%o of the national total, of which 95% was led by labor loss. Comparatively, medical expenditure had less impact on national economy, which is explained from the aspect of the final demand by commodities and the production activities by sectors. The authors conclude that the CGE model is a suitable tool for assessing health impacts from a point of view of national economy through the discussion about its applicability.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin with Intensive Oil and Gas Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matichuk, R.; Tonnesen, G.; Luecken, D.; Roselle, S. J.; Napelenok, S. L.; Baker, K. R.; Gilliam, R. C.; Misenis, C.; Murphy, B.; Schwede, D. B.

2015-12-01

The western United States is an important source of domestic energy resources. One of the primary environmental impacts associated with oil and natural gas production is related to air emission releases of a number of air pollutants. Some of these pollutants are important precursors to the formation of ground-level ozone. To better understand ozone impacts and other air quality issues, photochemical air quality models are used to simulate the changes in pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere on local, regional, and national spatial scales. These models are important for air quality management because they assist in identifying source contributions to air quality problems and designing effective strategies to reduce harmful air pollutants. The success of predicting oil and natural gas air quality impacts depends on the accuracy of the input information, including emissions inventories, meteorological information, and boundary conditions. The treatment of chemical and physical processes within these models is equally important. However, given the limited amount of data collected for oil and natural gas production emissions in the past and the complex terrain and meteorological conditions in western states, the ability of these models to accurately predict pollution concentrations from these sources is uncertain. Therefore, this presentation will focus on understanding the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model's ability to predict air quality impacts associated with oil and natural gas production and its sensitivity to input uncertainties. The results will focus on winter ozone issues in the Uinta Basin, Utah and identify the factors contributing to model performance issues. The results of this study will help support future air quality model development, policy and regulatory decisions for the oil and gas sector.

VERIFICATION AND USES OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (EPA) INDOOR AIR QUALITY MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The paper describes a set of experiments used to verify an indoor air quality (IAQ) model for estimating the impact of various pollution sources on IAQ in a multiroom building. he model treats each room as a well-mixed chamber that contains pollution sources and sinks. he model a...

Impact analysis of air gap motion with respect to parameters of mooring system for floating platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Zhong-xiang; Huo, Fa-li; Nie, Yan; Liu, Yin-dong

2017-04-01

In this paper, the impact analysis of air gap concerning the parameters of mooring system for the semi-submersible platform is conducted. It is challenging to simulate the wave, current and wind loads of a platform based on a model test simultaneously. Furthermore, the dynamic equivalence between the truncated and full-depth mooring system is still a tuff work. However, the wind and current loads can be tested accurately in wind tunnel model. Furthermore, the wave can be simulated accurately in wave tank test. The full-scale mooring system and the all environment loads can be simulated accurately by using the numerical model based on the model tests simultaneously. In this paper, the air gap response of a floating platform is calculated based on the results of tunnel test and wave tank. Meanwhile, full-scale mooring system, the wind, wave and current load can be considered simultaneously. In addition, a numerical model of the platform is tuned and validated by ANSYS AQWA according to the model test results. With the support of the tuned numerical model, seventeen simulation cases about the presented platform are considered to study the wave, wind, and current loads simultaneously. Then, the impact analysis studies of air gap motion regarding the length, elasticity, and type of the mooring line are performed in the time domain under the beam wave, head wave, and oblique wave conditions.

Impact of particulate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Canada.

PubMed

Coyle, Douglas; Stieb, Dave; Burnett, Richard T; DeCivita, Paul; Krewski, Daniel; Chen, Yue; Thun, Michael J

Air pollution and premature death are important public health concerns. Analyses have repeatedly demonstrated that airborne particles are associated with increased mortality and estimates have been used to forecast the impact on life expectancy. In this analysis, we draw upon data from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort and literature on utility-based measures of quality of life in relation to health status to more fully quantify the effects of air pollution on mortality in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy. The analysis was conducted within a decision analytic model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Outcomes were estimated based on projections of the Canadian population. A one-unit reduction in sulfate air pollution would yield a mean annual increase in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) of 20,960, with gains being greater for individuals with lower educational status and for males compared to females. This suggests that the impact of reductions in sulfate air pollution on quality-adjusted life expectancy is substantial. Interpretation of the results is unclear. However, the potential gains in QALYs from reduced air pollutants can be contrasted to the costs of policies to bring about such reductions. Based on a tentative threshold for the value of health benefits, analysis suggests that an investment in Canada of over 1 billion dollars per annum would be an efficient use of resources if it could be demonstrated that this would reduce sulfate concentrations in ambient air by 1 microg/m(3). Further analysis can assess the efficiency of targeting such initiatives to communities that are most likely to benefit.

P161 Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2012-01-01

For over 6 years, AIRS radiances have been assimilated operationally into National (e.g. Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)) and International (e.g. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)), operational centers; assimilated in the North American Mesoscale (NAM) since 2008. Due partly to data latency and operational constraints, hyperspectral radiance assimilation has had less impact on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used in the NAM and GFS. Objective of this project is to use AIRS retrieved profiles as a proxy for the AIRS radiances in situations where AIRS radiances are unable to be assimilated in the current operational system by evaluating location and magnitude of analysis increments.

Impact air quality by wildfire and agricultural fire in Mexico city 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza Campos, Alejandra; Agustín García Reynoso, José; Castro Romero, Telma Gloria; Carbajal Pérez, José Noel; Mar Morales, Bertha Eugenia; Gerardo Ruiz Suárez, Luis

2016-04-01

models were used, four scenarios were made, in the first forest fire emissions were included, in the second agricultural fire emissions were included, the third was the difference between agricultural burning and forest fire and the last stage model without fire emissions. In making the interpolation of the modeled scenarios forest and agricultural fires the impact of air quality in the Valley of Mexico was obtained by increasing the concentration of particles smaller than ten micrometers PM10, with the results of the modeling are obtained that the PM10 concentration is ten times higher in the wildfire regarding agricultural fire. By making interpolation between this difference and considering the fire scenario without emissions by that date, a maximum PM10 concentration was 170μg /m3 during the hours of the fires, which exceeds the Mexican standard NOM-025-SSA1-2014 that provides that the maximum allowable limit of exposure to particulate matter less than ten microns is 75μg/m3 on average 24 hours, forest and agricultural fires have an impact of 226% in the PM10 air quality affecting ecosystems and human health

3D Air Quality and the Clean Air Interstate Rule: Lagrangian Sampling of CMAQ Model Results to Aid Regional Accountability Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fairlie, T. D.; Szykman, Jim; Pierce, Robert B.; Gilliland, A. B.; Engel-Cox, Jill; Weber, Stephanie; Kittaka, Chieko; Al-Saadi, Jassim A.; Scheffe, Rich; Dimmick, Fred;

A review of air exchange rate models for air pollution exposure assessments.

PubMed

Breen, Michael S; Schultz, Bradley D; Sohn, Michael D; Long, Thomas; Langstaff, John; Williams, Ronald; Isaacs, Kristin; Meng, Qing Yu; Stallings, Casson; Smith, Luther

2014-11-01

A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessments is estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) for various buildings where people spend their time. The AER, which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for entry of outdoor air pollutants and for removal of indoor-emitted air pollutants. This paper presents an overview and critical analysis of the scientific literature on empirical and physically based AER models for residential and commercial buildings; the models highlighted here are feasible for exposure assessments as extensive inputs are not required. Models are included for the three types of airflows that can occur across building envelopes: leakage, natural ventilation, and mechanical ventilation. Guidance is provided to select the preferable AER model based on available data, desired temporal resolution, types of airflows, and types of buildings included in the exposure assessment. For exposure assessments with some limited building leakage or AER measurements, strategies are described to reduce AER model uncertainty. This review will facilitate the selection of AER models in support of air pollution exposure assessments.

Modelling climate impacts on the aviation sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Paul

2017-04-01

The climate is changing, not just where we live at ground level, but also where we fly at 35,000 feet. We have long known that air travel contributes to climate change through its emissions. However, we have only recently become aware that climate change could have significant consequences for air travel. This presentation will give an overview of the possible impacts of climate change on the aviation sector. The presentation will describe how the impacts are modelled and how their social and economic costs are estimated. The impacts are discussed in the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO's) latest Environmental Report (Puempel and Williams 2016). Some of the possible impacts are as follows. Rising sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal airports, such as La Guardia in New York, which was flooded by the remnants of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Warmer air at ground level reduces the lift force and makes it more difficult for planes to take-off (Coffel and Horton 2015). More extreme weather may cause flight disruptions and delays. Clear-air turbulence is expected to become up to 40% stronger and twice as common (Williams and Joshi 2013). Transatlantic flights may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year because of changes to the jet stream, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide (Williams 2016). These modelled impacts provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Coffel E and Horton R (2015) Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation. Weather, Climate, and Society, 7, 94-102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1 Puempel H and Williams PD (2016) The impacts of climate change on aviation: Scientific challenges and adaptation pathways. ICAO Environmental Report 2016: On Board A Sustainable Future, pp 205-207. http

NordicWelfAir - Understanding the link between Air pollution and Distribution of related Health Impacts and Welfare in the Nordic countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Jørgen

2017-04-01

Air pollution has serious impacts on human health, wellbeing and welfare. The main challenge is to understand how to regulate air pollution in an optimal way both on global and local scales. Linking the detailed information of the spatio-temporal distribution of air pollution levels and the chemical composition of the atmospheric particles with register data for mortality and morbidity, we have a unique opportunity in the Nordic countries to gain new understanding of the various health impacts from different kinds of air pollution from different kind of sources. This will provide the basic understanding needed for policy making of strategies to optimally reduce the air pollution challenge and to assess the related impacts on the distribution of health impacts and related societal costs and welfare. The large interdisciplinary NordicWelfAir project (http://nordicwelfair.au.dk), funded by NordForsk, will take advantage of the unique Nordic data. The results from the project will be used in both a Nordic as well as global perspective to improve the health and welfare by finding the optimal solutions to societal and public health challenges from air pollution through high-quality research. The results from the research in this project have the potential to act as new international standards in our understanding of health impacts from air pollution for different population groups due to the possibility to integrate the unique data and knowledge of air pollution, register, health, socio-economics, and welfare research in the Nordic countries in a highly interdisciplinary project. The study will provide a Nordic contribution to international research on the topics of environmental equality and justice within the area of air quality related risks, amenities and wellbeing. Acknowledgements This project is funded by NordForsk under the Nordic Programme on Health and Welfare. Project #75007: Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health

Evaluation of model-predicted hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) near a mid-sized U.S. airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vennam, Lakshmi Pradeepa; Vizuete, William; Arunachalam, Saravanan

2015-10-01

Accurate modeling of aircraft-emitted pollutants in the vicinity of airports is essential to study the impact on local air quality and to answer policy and health-impact related issues. To quantify air quality impacts of airport-related hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), we carried out a fine-scale (4 × 4 km horizontal resolution) Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) model simulation at the T.F. Green airport in Providence (PVD), Rhode Island. We considered temporally and spatially resolved aircraft emissions from the new Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). These model predictions were then evaluated with observations from a field campaign focused on assessing HAPs near the PVD airport. The annual normalized mean error (NME) was in the range of 36-70% normalized mean error for all HAPs except for acrolein (>70%). The addition of highly resolved aircraft emissions showed only marginally incremental improvements in performance (1-2% decrease in NME) of some HAPs (formaldehyde, xylene). When compared to a coarser 36 × 36 km grid resolution, the 4 × 4 km grid resolution did improve performance by up to 5-20% NME for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. The change in power setting (from traditional International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 7% to observation studies based 4%) doubled the aircraft idling emissions of HAPs, but led to only a 2% decrease in NME. Overall modeled aircraft-attributable contributions are in the range of 0.5-28% near a mid-sized airport grid-cell with maximum impacts seen only within 4-16 km from the airport grid-cell. Comparison of CMAQ predictions with HAP estimates from EPA's National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) did show similar annual mean concentrations and equally poor performance. Current estimates of HAPs for PVD are a challenge for modeling systems and refinements in our ability to simulate aircraft emissions have made only incremental improvements. Even with unrealistic increases in HAPs aviation emissions the model

Prediction of Indoor Air Exposure from Outdoor Air Quality Using an Artificial Neural Network Model for Inner City Commercial Buildings

PubMed Central

Challoner, Avril; Pilla, Francesco; Gill, Laurence

2015-01-01

NO2 and particulate matter are the air pollutants of most concern in Ireland, with possible links to the higher respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity rates found in the country compared to the rest of Europe. Currently, air quality limits in Europe only cover outdoor environments yet the quality of indoor air is an essential determinant of a person’s well-being, especially since the average person spends more than 90% of their time indoors. The modelling conducted in this research aims to provide a framework for epidemiological studies by the use of publically available data from fixed outdoor monitoring stations to predict indoor air quality more accurately. Predictions are made using two modelling techniques, the Personal-exposure Activity Location Model (PALM), to predict outdoor air quality at a particular building, and Artificial Neural Networks, to model the indoor/outdoor relationship of the building. This joint approach has been used to predict indoor air concentrations for three inner city commercial buildings in Dublin, where parallel indoor and outdoor diurnal monitoring had been carried out on site. This modelling methodology has been shown to provide reasonable predictions of average NO2 indoor air quality compared to the monitored data, but did not perform well in the prediction of indoor PM2.5 concentrations. Hence, this approach could be used to determine NO2 exposures more rigorously of those who work and/or live in the city centre, which can then be linked to potential health impacts. PMID:26633448

Impact of aircraft emissions on air quality in the vicinity of airports. Volume I. Recent airport measurement programs, data analyses, and sub-model development. Final report Jan78-Jul 80

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamartino, R.J.; Smith, D.G.; Bremer, S.A.

1980-07-01

This report documents the results of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air quality study which has been conducted to assess the impact of aircraft emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the vicinity of airports. This assessment includes the results of recent modeling and monitoring efforts at Washington National (DCA), Los Angeles International (LAX), Dulles International (IAD), and Lakeland, Florida airports and an updated modeling of aircraft generated pollution at LAX, John F. Kennedy (JFK) and Chicago O'Hare (ORD) airports. The Airport Vicinity Air Pollution (AVAP) model which was designed formore » use at civil airports was used in this assessment. In addition the results of the application of the military version of the AVAP model the Air Quality Assessment Model (AQAM), are summarized.« less

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namilae, Sirish; Derjany, Pierrot; Mubayi, Anuj; Scotch, Mathew; Srinivasan, Ashok

2017-05-01

In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.

The impacts of reactive terpene emissions from plants on air quality in Las Vegas, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papiez, Maria R.; Potosnak, Mark J.; Goliff, Wendy S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Matsunaga, Sou N.; Stockwell, William R.

A three-part study was conducted to quantify the impact of landscaped vegetation on air quality in a rapidly expanding urban area in the arid southeastern United States. The study combines in situ, plant-level measurements, a spatial emissions inventory, and a photochemical box model. Maximum plant-level basal emission rates were moderate: 18.1 μgC gdw -1 h -1 ( Washingtonia spp., palms) for isoprene and 9.56 μgC gdw -1 h -1 ( Fraxinus velutina, Arizona ash) for monoterpenes. Sesquiterpene emission rates were low for plant species selected in this study, with no measurement exceeding 0.1 μgC gdw -1 h -1. The high ambient temperatures combined with moderate plant-level emission factors resulted in landscape emission factors that were low (250-640 μgC m -2 h -1) compared to more mesic environments (e.g., the southeastern United States). The Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) was modified to include a new reaction pathway for ocimene. Using measured concentrations of anthropogenic hydrocarbons and other reactive air pollutants (NO x, ozone), the box model employing the RACM mechanism revealed that these modest emissions could have a significant impact on air quality. For a suburban location that was downwind of the urban core (high NO x; low anthropogenic hydrocarbons), biogenic terpenes increased time-dependent ozone production rates by a factor of 50. Our study demonstrates that low-biomass density landscapes emit sufficient biogenic terpenes to have a significant impact on regional air quality.

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

2010-01-01

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Air impacts of increased natural gas acquisition, processing, and use: a critical review.

PubMed

Moore, Christopher W; Zielinska, Barbara; Pétron, Gabrielle; Jackson, Robert B

2014-01-01

During the past decade, technological advancements in the United States and Canada have led to rapid and intensive development of many unconventional natural gas plays (e.g., shale gas, tight sand gas, coal-bed methane), raising concerns about environmental impacts. Here, we summarize the current understanding of local and regional air quality impacts of natural gas extraction, production, and use. Air emissions from the natural gas life cycle include greenhouse gases, ozone precursors (volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides), air toxics, and particulates. National and state regulators primarily use generic emission inventories to assess the climate, air quality, and health impacts of natural gas systems. These inventories rely on limited, incomplete, and sometimes outdated emission factors and activity data, based on few measurements. We discuss case studies for specific air impacts grouped by natural gas life cycle segment, summarize the potential benefits of using natural gas over other fossil fuels, and examine national and state emission regulations pertaining to natural gas systems. Finally, we highlight specific gaps in scientific knowledge and suggest that substantial additional measurements of air emissions from the natural gas life cycle are essential to understanding the impacts and benefits of this resource.

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Qiang; Jiang, Xujia; Tong, Dan

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade onmore » air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.« less

Evaluating Organic Aerosol Model Performance: Impact of two Embedded Assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, W.; Giroux, E.; Roth, H.; Yin, D.

2004-05-01

Organic aerosols are important due to their abundance in the polluted lower atmosphere and their impact on human health and vegetation. However, modeling organic aerosols is a very challenging task because of the complexity of aerosol composition, structure, and formation processes. Assumptions and their associated uncertainties in both models and measurement data make model performance evaluation a truly demanding job. Although some assumptions are obvious, others are hidden and embedded, and can significantly impact modeling results, possibly even changing conclusions about model performance. This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of two embedded assumptions on evaluation of organic aerosol model performance. One assumption is about the enthalpy of vaporization widely used in various secondary organic aerosol (SOA) algorithms. The other is about the conversion factor used to obtain ambient organic aerosol concentrations from measured organic carbon. These two assumptions reflect uncertainties in the model and in the ambient measurement data, respectively. For illustration purposes, various choices of the assumed values are implemented in the evaluation process for an air quality model based on CMAQ (the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model). Model simulations are conducted for the Lower Fraser Valley covering Southwest British Columbia, Canada, and Northwest Washington, United States, for a historical pollution episode in 1993. To understand the impact of the assumed enthalpy of vaporization on modeling results, its impact on instantaneous organic aerosol yields (IAY) through partitioning coefficients is analysed first. The analysis shows that utilizing different enthalpy of vaporization values causes changes in the shapes of IAY curves and in the response of SOA formation capability of reactive organic gases to temperature variations. These changes are then carried into the air quality model and cause substantial changes in the organic aerosol modeling

Photochemical model evaluation of 2013 California wild fire air quality impacts using surface, aircraft, and satellite data.

PubMed

Baker, K R; Woody, M C; Valin, L; Szykman, J; Yates, E L; Iraci, L T; Choi, H D; Soja, A J; Koplitz, S N; Zhou, L; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Jimenez, Jose L; Hair, J W

2018-10-01

The Rim Fire was one of the largest wildfires in California history, burning over 250,000 acres during August and September 2013 affecting air quality locally and regionally in the western U.S. Routine surface monitors, remotely sensed data, and aircraft based measurements were used to assess how well the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model applied at 4 and 12 km resolution represented regional plume transport and chemical evolution during this extreme wildland fire episode. Impacts were generally similar at both grid resolutions although notable differences were seen in some secondary pollutants (e.g., formaldehyde and peroxyacyl nitrate) near the Rim fire. The modeling system does well at capturing near-fire to regional scale smoke plume transport compared to remotely sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aircraft transect measurements. Plume rise for the Rim fire was well characterized as the modeled plume top was consistent with remotely sensed data and the altitude of aircraft measurements, which were typically made at the top edge of the plume. Aircraft-based lidar suggests O 3 downwind in the Rim fire plume was vertically stratified and tended to be higher at the plume top, while CMAQ estimated a more uniformly mixed column of O 3 . Predicted wildfire ozone (O 3 ) was overestimated both at the plume top and at nearby rural and urban surface monitors. Photolysis rates were well characterized by the model compared with aircraft measurements meaning aerosol attenuation was reasonably estimated and unlikely contributing to O 3 overestimates at the top of the plume. Organic carbon was underestimated close to the Rim fire compared to aircraft data, but was consistent with nearby surface measurements. Periods of elevated surface PM 2.5 at rural monitors near the Rim fire were not usually coincident with elevated O 3 . Published by Elsevier B.V.

EDITORIAL: Global impacts of particulate matter air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Michelle L.; Holloway, Tracey

2007-10-01

sulfate aerosol exposure (both domestically and on downwind continents), while presenting a new metric to quantify the impact of distance on health-relevant exposure: the 'influence potential'. Extending the scope of aerosol impacts from health to climate, Bond outlines the barriers to including aerosols in climate agreements, and proposes solutions to facilitate the integration of this key climate species in a policy context. Together, the articles scope out the state-of-the-science with respect to key issues in international air pollution. All four studies advance understanding the human health implications of air pollution, by drawing from worldwide data sources and considering a global perspective on key processes and impacts. To extend exposure estimates, like those of van Vliet and Kinney or Liu and Mauzerall, and to evaluate the induced physiological response of PM exposure, typically existing dose response relationships are applied. Unfortunately, the common practice of applying health response estimates from one location to another is problematic. In addition to potential differences in the chemical composition of particles, the underlying populations may differ with respect to their baseline health status, occupational exposures, age and gender distribution, and behavioral factors such as nutrition and smoking habits. Health response to a given stressor is affected by the quality of and access to health care, which varies widely, and can be almost non-existent in some regions of developing countries. Further, exposure to ambient PM is affected by the relative fraction of time spent in different settings (e.g., work, home, outside, in transit), the activities that affect ventilation rate (e.g., exercising heavily versus sitting still), and housing characteristics that alter the penetration of outdoor particles into indoor environments (e.g., housing materials, windows, air conditioning). To make the most of exposure estimates, the 'missing link' is the

Impact of varying area of polluting surface materials on perceived air quality.

PubMed

Sakr, W; Knudsen, H N; Gunnarsen, L; Haghighat, F

2003-06-01

A laboratory study was performed to investigate the impact of the concentration of pollutants in the air on emissions from building materials. Building materials were placed in ventilated test chambers. The experimental set-up allowed the concentration of pollution in the exhaust air to be changed either by diluting exhaust air with clean air (changing the dilution factor) or by varying the area of the material inside the chamber when keeping the ventilation rate constant (changing the area factor). Four different building materials and three combinations of two or three building materials were studied in ventilated small-scale test chambers. Each individual material and three of their combinations were examined at four different dilution factors and four different area factors. An untrained panel of 23 subjects assessed the air quality from the chambers. The results show that a certain increase in dilution improves the perceived air quality more than a similar decrease in area. The reason for this may be that the emission rate of odorous pollutants increases when the concentration in the chamber decreases. The results demonstrate that, in some cases the effect of increased ventilation on the air quality may be less than expected from a simple dilution model.

Meteorological and air quality impacts of increased urban albedo and vegetative cover in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taha, Haider; Hammer, Hillel; Akbari, Hashem

2002-04-30

The study described in this report is part of a project sponsored by the Toronto Atmospheric Fund, performed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, to assess the potential role of surface property modifications on energy, meteorology, and air quality in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. Numerical models were used to establish the possible meteorological and ozone air-quality impacts of increased urban albedo and vegetative fraction, i.e., ''cool-city'' strategies that can mitigate the urban heat island (UHI), significantly reduce urban energy consumption, and improve thermal comfort, particularly during periods of hot weather in summer. Mitigation is even more important duringmore » critical heat wave periods with possible increased heat-related hospitalization and mortality. The evidence suggests that on an annual basis cool-city strategies are beneficial, and the implementation of such measures is currently being investigated in the U.S. and Canada. We simulated possible scenari os for urban heat-island mitigation in the GTA and investigated consequent meteorological changes, and also performed limited air-quality analysis to assess related impacts. The study was based on a combination of mesoscale meteorological modeling, Lagrangian (trajectory), and photochemical trajectory modeling to assess the potential meteorological and ozone air-quality impacts of cool-city strategies. As available air-quality and emissions data are incompatible with models currently in use at LBNL, our air-quality analysis was based on photochemical trajectory modeling. Because of questions as to the accuracy and appropriateness of this approach, in our opinion this aspect of the study can be improved in the future, and the air-quality results discussed in this report should be viewed as relatively qualitative. The MM5 meteorological model predicts a UHI in the order of 2 to 3 degrees C in locations of maxima, and about 1 degree C as a typical value over most of the urban

China’s Air Quality and Respiratory Disease Mortality Based on the Spatial Panel Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Qilong; Liang, Ying; Niu, Xueting

2017-01-01

Background: Air pollution has become an important factor restricting China’s economic development and has subsequently brought a series of social problems, including the impact of air pollution on the health of residents, which is a topical issue in China. Methods: Taking into account this spatial imbalance, the paper is based on the spatial panel data model PM2.5. Respiratory disease mortality in 31 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2008 is taken as the main variable to study the spatial effect and impact of air quality and respiratory disease mortality on a large scale. Results: It was found that there is a spatial correlation between the mortality of respiratory diseases in Chinese provinces. The spatial correlation can be explained by the spatial effect of PM2.5 pollutions in the control of other variables. Conclusions: Compared with the traditional non-spatial model, the spatial model is better for describing the spatial relationship between variables, ensuring the conclusions are scientific and can measure the spatial effect between variables. PMID:28927016

Modeling multi-scale aerosol dynamics and micro-environmental air quality near a large highway intersection using the CTAG model.

PubMed

Wang, Yan Jason; Nguyen, Monica T; Steffens, Jonathan T; Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K; Zhang, K Max

2013-01-15

A new methodology, referred to as the multi-scale structure, integrates "tailpipe-to-road" (i.e., on-road domain) and "road-to-ambient" (i.e., near-road domain) simulations to elucidate the environmental impacts of particulate emissions from traffic sources. The multi-scale structure is implemented in the CTAG model to 1) generate process-based on-road emission rates of ultrafine particles (UFPs) by explicitly simulating the effects of exhaust properties, traffic conditions, and meteorological conditions and 2) to characterize the impacts of traffic-related emissions on micro-environmental air quality near a highway intersection in Rochester, NY. The performance of CTAG, evaluated against with the field measurements, shows adequate agreement in capturing the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and the number concentrations of UFPs in the near road micro-environment. As a proof-of-concept case study, we also apply CTAG to separate the relative impacts of the shutdown of a large coal-fired power plant (CFPP) and the adoption of the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) on UFP concentrations in the intersection micro-environment. Although CTAG is still computationally expensive compared to the widely-used parameterized dispersion models, it has the potential to advance our capability to predict the impacts of UFP emissions and spatial/temporal variations of air pollutants in complex environments. Furthermore, for the on-road simulations, CTAG can serve as a process-based emission model; Combining the on-road and near-road simulations, CTAG becomes a "plume-in-grid" model for mobile emissions. The processed emission profiles can potentially improve regional air quality and climate predictions accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Feasibility of Assessing Public Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reduction Programs on a Local Scale: New Haven Case Study

PubMed Central

Lobdell, Danelle T.; Isakov, Vlad; Baxter, Lisa; Touma, Jawad S.; Smuts, Mary Beth; Özkaynak, Halûk

2011-01-01

Background New approaches to link health surveillance data with environmental and population exposure information are needed to examine the health benefits of risk management decisions. Objective We examined the feasibility of conducting a local assessment of the public health impacts of cumulative air pollution reduction activities from federal, state, local, and voluntary actions in the City of New Haven, Connecticut (USA). Methods Using a hybrid modeling approach that combines regional and local-scale air quality data, we estimated ambient concentrations for multiple air pollutants [e.g., PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter), NOx (nitrogen oxides)] for baseline year 2001 and projected emissions for 2010, 2020, and 2030. We assessed the feasibility of detecting health improvements in relation to reductions in air pollution for 26 different pollutant–health outcome linkages using both sample size and exploratory epidemiological simulations to further inform decision-making needs. Results Model projections suggested decreases (~ 10–60%) in pollutant concentrations, mainly attributable to decreases in pollutants from local sources between 2001 and 2010. Models indicated considerable spatial variability in the concentrations of most pollutants. Sample size analyses supported the feasibility of identifying linkages between reductions in NOx and improvements in all-cause mortality, prevalence of asthma in children and adults, and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations. Conclusion Substantial reductions in air pollution (e.g., ~ 60% for NOx) are needed to detect health impacts of environmental actions using traditional epidemiological study designs in small communities like New Haven. In contrast, exploratory epidemiological simulations suggest that it may be possible to demonstrate the health impacts of PM reductions by predicting intraurban pollution gradients within New Haven using coupled models. PMID:21335318

Linking Global and Regional Models to Simulate U.S. Air Quality in the Year 2050

EPA Science Inventory

The potential impact of global climate change on future air quality in the United States is investigated with global and regional-scale models. Regional climate model scenarios are developed by dynamically downscaling the outputs from a global chemistry and climate model and are...

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10–20 ppb

Potential impacts of electric vehicles on air quality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Nan; Chen, Jen-Ping; Tsai, I-Chun; He, Qingyang; Chi, Szu-Yu; Lin, Yi-Chiu; Fu, Tzung-May

2016-10-01

The prospective impacts of electric vehicle (EV) penetration on the air quality in Taiwan were evaluated using an air quality model with the assumption of an ambitious replacement of current light-duty vehicles under different power generation scenarios. With full EV penetration (i.e., the replacement of all light-duty vehicles), CO, VOCs, NOx and PM2.5 emissions in Taiwan from a fleet of 20.6 million vehicles would be reduced by 1500, 165, 33.9 and 7.2Ggyr(-1), respectively, while electric sector NOx and SO2 emissions would be increased by up to 20.3 and 12.9Ggyr(-1), respectively, if the electricity to power EVs were provided by thermal power plants. The net impacts of these emission changes would be to reduce the annual mean surface concentrations of CO, VOCs, NOx and PM2.5 by about 260, 11.3, 3.3ppb and 2.1μgm(-3), respectively, but to increase SO2 by 0.1ppb. Larger reductions tend to occur at time and place of higher ambient concentrations and during high pollution events. Greater benefits would clearly be attained if clean energy sources were fully encouraged. EV penetration would also reduce the mean peak-time surface O3 concentrations by up to 7ppb across Taiwan with the exception of the center of metropolitan Taipei where the concentration increased by <2ppb. Furthermore, full EV penetration would reduce annual days of O3 pollution episodes by ~40% and PM2.5 pollution episodes by 6-10%. Our findings offer important insights into the air quality impacts of EV and can provide useful information for potential mitigation actions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Full-chain health impact assessment of traffic-related air pollution and childhood asthma.

PubMed

Khreis, Haneen; de Hoogh, Kees; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J

2018-05-01

Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children. Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) may be an important exposure contributing to its development. In the UK, Bradford is a deprived city suffering from childhood asthma rates higher than national and regional averages and TRAP is of particular concern to the local communities. We estimated the burden of childhood asthma attributable to air pollution and specifically TRAP in Bradford. Air pollution exposures were estimated using a newly developed full-chain exposure assessment model and an existing land-use regression model (LUR). We estimated childhood population exposure to NO x and, by conversion, NO 2 at the smallest census area level using a newly developed full-chain model knitting together distinct traffic (SATURN), vehicle emission (COPERT) and atmospheric dispersion (ADMS-Urban) models. We compared these estimates with measurements and estimates from ESCAPE's LUR model. Using the UK incidence rate for childhood asthma, meta-analytical exposure-response functions, and estimates from the two exposure models, we estimated annual number of asthma cases attributable to NO 2 and NO x in Bradford, and annual number of asthma cases specifically attributable to traffic. The annual average census tract levels of NO 2 and NO x estimated using the full-chain model were 15.41 and 25.68 μg/m 3 , respectively. On average, 2.75 μg/m 3 NO 2 and 4.59 μg/m 3 NO x were specifically contributed by traffic, without minor roads and cold starts. The annual average census tract levels of NO 2 and NO x estimated using the LUR model were 21.93 and 35.60 μg/m 3 , respectively. The results indicated that up to 687 (or 38% of all) annual childhood asthma cases in Bradford may be attributable to air pollution. Up to 109 cases (6%) and 219 cases (12%) may be specifically attributable to TRAP, with and without minor roads and cold starts, respectively. This is the first study undertaking full-chain health impact assessment

Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

Energy Impacts of Oversized Residential Air Conditioners -- Simulation Study of Retrofit Sequence Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booten, C.; Christensen, C.; Winkler, J.

2014-11-01

This research addresses the question of what are the energy consequences for oversizing of an air conditioner in a home. Conventional wisdom holds that oversizing the AC results in significant energy penalties. However, the reason for this was shown to be due to crankcase heaters and not due to cycling performance of the AC, and is only valid for a particular set of assumptions. Adding or removing individual characteristics, such as ducts or crankcase heaters, can have measurable impacts on energy use. However, with all other home characteristics held constant, oversizing the AC generally has a small effect on coolingmore » energy use, even if the cycling performance of the unit is poor. The relevant aspects of air conditioner modeling are discussed to illustrate the effects of the cycling loss coefficient, Cd, capacity, climate, ducts and parasitic losses such as crankcase heaters. A case study of a typical 1960's vintage home demonstrates results in the context of whole building simulations using EnergyPlus.« less

Implementation of a WRF-CMAQ Air Quality Modeling System in Bogotá, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedbor-Gross, R.; Henderson, B. H.; Pachon, J. E.; Davis, J. R.; Baublitz, C. B.; Rincón, A.

2014-12-01

Due to a continuous economic growth Bogotá, Colombia has experienced air pollution issues in recent years. The local environmental authority has implemented several strategies to curb air pollution that have resulted in the decrease of PM10 concentrations since 2010. However, more activities are necessary in order to meet international air quality standards in the city. The University of Florida Air Quality and Climate group is collaborating with the Universidad de La Salle to prioritize regulatory strategies for Bogotá using air pollution simulations. To simulate pollution, we developed a modeling platform that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), local emissions, and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ). This platform is the first of its kind to be implemented in the megacity of Bogota, Colombia. The presentation will discuss development and evaluation of the air quality modeling system, highlight initial results characterizing photochemical conditions in Bogotá, and characterize air pollution under proposed regulatory strategies. The WRF model has been configured and applied to Bogotá, which resides in a tropical climate with complex mountainous topography. Developing the configuration included incorporation of local topography and land-use data, a physics sensitivity analysis, review, and systematic evaluation. The threshold, however, was set based on synthesis of model performance under less mountainous conditions. We will evaluate the impact that differences in autocorrelation contribute to the non-ideal performance. Air pollution predictions are currently under way. CMAQ has been configured with WRF meteorology, global boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, and a locally produced emission inventory. Preliminary results from simulations show promising performance of CMAQ in Bogota. Anticipated results include a systematic performance evaluation of ozone and PM10, characterization of photochemical sensitivity, and air

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

2010-01-01

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Yan, Qinling; Shi, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Xiaodan; Yu, Pengbo; Wu, Jianhong; Xiao, Yanni

2018-01-01

China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution. Few studies have quantified the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. We conducted an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th, 2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behaviour change interventions. Our combined data and modelling analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programme is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Common faults and their impacts for rooftop air conditioners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breuker, M.S.; Braun, J.E.

This paper identifies important faults and their performance impacts for rooftop air conditioners. The frequencies of occurrence and the relative costs of service for different faults were estimated through analysis of service records. Several of the important and difficult to diagnose refrigeration cycle faults were simulated in the laboratory. Also, the impacts on several performance indices were quantified through transient testing for a range of conditions and fault levels. The transient test results indicated that fault detection and diagnostics could be performed using methods that incorporate steady-state assumptions and models. Furthermore, the fault testing led to a set of genericmore » rules for the impacts of faults on measurements that could be used for fault diagnoses. The average impacts of the faults on cooling capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) were also evaluated. Based upon the results, all of the faults are significant at the levels introduced, and should be detected and diagnosed by an FDD system. The data set obtained during this work was very comprehensive, and was used to design and evaluate the performance of an FDD method that will be reported in a future paper.« less

Air toxics and asthma: impacts and end points.

PubMed Central

Eschenbacher, W L; Holian, A; Campion, R J

1995-01-01

The National Urban Air Toxics Research Center (NUATRC) hosted a medical/scientific workshop focused on possible asthma/air toxics relationships, with the results of the NUATRC's first research contract with the University of Cincinnati as the point of discussion. The workshop was held at the Texas Medical Center on 4 February 1994 and featured presentations by distinguished academic, government, and industry scientists. This one-day session explored the impact of various environmental factors, including air toxics, on asthma incidence and exacerbation; an emphasis was placed on future research directions to be pursued in the asthma/air toxics area. A key research presentation on the association of air toxics and asthma, based on the study sponsored by NUATRC, was given by Dr. George Leikauf of the University of Cincinnati Medical Center. Additional presentations were made by H. A. Boushey, Jr., Cardiovascular Research Institute/University of California at San Francisco, who spoke on of the Basic Mechanisms of Asthma; K. Sexton, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, who spoke on hazardous air pollutants: science/policy interface; and D. V. Bates, Department of Health Care and Epidemiology at the University of British Columbia, who spoke on asthma epidemiology. H. Koren, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and M. Yeung, of the Respiratory Division/University of British Columbia, Vancouver General Hospital, discussed occupational health impacts on asthma. Doyle Pendleton, Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission, reviewed air quality measurements in Texas. The information presented at the workshop suggested a possible association of asthma exacerbations with ozone and particulate matter (PM10); however, direct relationships between worsening asthma and air toxic ambient levels were not established. Possible respiratory health effects associated with air toxics will require considerably more investigation, especially in the area of human exposure assessment

Variability in impact of air pollution on subjective well-being

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Guodong; Shin, Kong Joo; Managi, Shunsuke

2018-06-01

This paper examines the impact of variability in impact of air pollution on life satisfaction (LS). Previous studies have shown robust negative impact of air pollution on subjective well-being (SWB). However, empirical studies that consider variability in air pollution effects through comparative city study are limited. This study provides comparative evaluation of two major Chinese cities: Beijing and Shanghai. We apply a geo-statistical spatial interpolation technique on pollution data from monitoring sites to estimate the Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), coarse particles with a diameter between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM10) and fine particles with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) pollution exposure of respondents of a survey conducted in 2016. The results show that all pollutants have robust negative impacts on LS for Beijing residents, whereas only SO2 and NO2 have significant negative impacts on LS for Shanghai residents; Per unit impact of SO2 is greater in Shanghai, and that of NO2 is greater in Beijing. Beijing and Shanghai residents have almost same monetary valuation for SO2 reduction but Beijing residents place approximately 1.5 times valuation on NO2 reduction compared to Shanghai residents. Moreover, the LS of Beijing residents is sensitive to temporal changes in the pollution level, whereas Shanghai residents are unaffected by such changes.

Air Quality Impacts of Electrifying Vehicles and Equipment Across the United States.

PubMed

Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Grant, John; Knipping, Eladio; Alexander, Mark; Schurhoff, Rob; Young, David; Jung, Jaegun; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg

2017-03-07

U.S.-wide air quality impacts of electrifying vehicles and off-road equipment are estimated for 2030 using 3-D photochemical air quality model and detailed emissions inventories. Electrification reduces tailpipe emissions and emissions from petroleum refining, transport, and storage, but increases electricity demand. The Electrification Case assumes approximately 17% of light duty and 8% of heavy duty vehicle miles traveled and from 17% to 79% of various off-road equipment types considered good candidates for electrification is powered by electricity. The Electrification Case raises electricity demand by 5% over the 2030 Base Case but nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions decrease by 209 thousand tons (3%) overall. Emissions of other criteria pollutants also decrease. Air quality benefits of electrification are modest, mostly less than 1 ppb for ozone and 0.5 μg m -3 for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but widespread. The largest reductions for ozone and PM occur in urban areas due to lower mobile source emissions. Electrifying off-road equipment yields more benefits than electrifying on-road vehicles. Reduced crude oil imports and associated marine vessel emissions cause additional benefits in port cities. Changes in other gas and PM emissions, as well as impacts on acid and nutrient deposition, are discussed.

The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

2015-12-01

Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

Intrathoracic pressure variations in an anthropomorphic dummy exposed to air blast, blunt impact, and missiles.

PubMed

Jönsson, A; Arvebo, E; Schantz, B

1988-01-01

Experiments with an anthropomorphic dummy for blast research demonstrated that pressures recorded in the lung model of the dummy could be correlated to primary air blast effects on the lungs of experimental animals. The results presented here were obtained with a dummy of the type mentioned above, but with the lung model modified to improve geometric similarity to man. Blast experiments were performed in a shock tube, and impact experiments in a special impact machine. Experiments with nonpenetrating missiles were performed with small-caliber firearms and the dummy protected by body armor. Severity indices derived from the blast experiments were related to established criteria for primary lung injury in man. Impacts delivered in the impact machine and by nonpenetrating missiles are compared. Relationships between severity of impact based on experiments with animals and primary lung injury in man are discussed.

Modelling hot air balloons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brimicombe, N. W.

1991-07-01

Hot air balloons can be modelled in a number of different ways. The most satisfactory, but least useful model is at a microscopic level. Macroscopic models are easier to use but can be very misleading.

Atmospheric emissions and air quality impacts from natural gas production and use.

PubMed

Allen, David T

2014-01-01

The US Energy Information Administration projects that hydraulic fracturing of shale formations will become a dominant source of domestic natural gas supply over the next several decades, transforming the energy landscape in the United States. However, the environmental impacts associated with fracking for shale gas have made it controversial. This review examines emissions and impacts of air pollutants associated with shale gas production and use. Emissions and impacts of greenhouse gases, photochemically active air pollutants, and toxic air pollutants are described. In addition to the direct atmospheric impacts of expanded natural gas production, indirect effects are also described. Widespread availability of shale gas can drive down natural gas prices, which, in turn, can impact the use patterns for natural gas. Natural gas production and use in electricity generation are used as a case study for examining these indirect consequences of expanded natural gas availability.

Teplice Program--The Impact of Air Pollution on Human Health

EPA Science Inventory

The aim of the Teplice Program is to investigate and assess the impact of air pollution on the health of the population in the district of Teplice, Czech Republic. Characterization of the air pollutants demonstrated unusually high concentrations during winter inversions of fine p...

Impacts of flare emissions from an ethylene plant shutdown to regional air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziyuan; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

2016-08-01

Critical operations of chemical process industry (CPI) plants such as ethylene plant shutdowns could emit a huge amount of VOCs and NOx, which may result in localized and transient ozone pollution events. In this paper, a general methodology for studying dynamic ozone impacts associated with flare emissions from ethylene plant shutdowns has been developed. This multi-scale simulation study integrates process knowledge of plant shutdown emissions in terms of flow rate and speciation together with regional air-quality modeling to quantitatively investigate the sensitivity of ground-level ozone change due to an ethylene plant shutdown. The study shows the maximum hourly ozone increments can vary significantly by different plant locations and temporal factors including background ozone data and solar radiation intensity. It helps provide a cost-effective air-quality control strategy for industries by choosing the optimal starting time of plant shutdown operations in terms of minimizing the induced ozone impact (reduced from 34.1 ppb to 1.2 ppb in the performed case studies). This study provides valuable technical supports for both CPI and environmental policy makers on cost-effective air-quality controls in the future.

MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.

2009-09-01

major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate and global atmospheric chemistry. The project focuses on the multi-scale modelling of interacting meteorology and air quality, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. Some of the links between megacities, air quality and climate are reasonably well-understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links is the focus of MEGAPOLI. The current status and modeling results after the first project year on examples of Paris and other European megacities are discussed.

The impact of winter heating on air pollution in China.

PubMed

Xiao, Qingyang; Ma, Zongwei; Li, Shenshen; Liu, Yang

2015-01-01

Fossil-fuel combustion related winter heating has become a major air quality and public health concern in northern China recently. We analyzed the impact of winter heating on aerosol loadings over China using the MODIS-Aqua Collection 6 aerosol product from 2004-2012. Absolute humidity (AH) and planetary boundary layer height (PBL) -adjusted aerosol optical depth (AOD*) was constructed to reflect ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. GIS analysis, standard statistical tests, and statistical modeling indicate that winter heating is an important factor causing increased PM2.5 levels in more than three-quarters of central and eastern China. The heating season AOD* was more than five times higher as the non-heating season AOD*, and the increase in AOD* in the heating areas was greater than in the non-heating areas. Finally, central heating tend to contribute less to air pollution relative to other means of household heating.

Impact of Hypobarism During Simulated Transport on Critical Care Air Transport Team Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-26

AFRL-SA-WP-SR-2017-0008 Impact of Hypobarism During Simulated Transport on Critical Care Air Transport Team Performance Dina...July 2014 – November 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Impact of Hypobarism During Simulated Transport on Critical Care Air Transport Team Performance 5a...During Critical Care Air Transport Team Advanced Course validation, three-member teams consisting of a physician, nurse, and respiratory therapist

Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution at the National Level using the EVA Model System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Jørgen; Silver, Jeremy David; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Geels, Camilla; Gross, Allan; Buus Hansen, Ayoe; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Brandt Hedegaard, Gitte; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten

2010-05-01

Air pollution has significant negative impacts on human health and well-being, which entail substantial economic consequences. We have developed an integrated model system, EVA (External Valuation of Air pollution), to assess health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources/sectors. The EVA system was initially developed to assess externalities from power production, but in this study it is extended to evaluate costs at the national level. The EVA system integrates a regional-scale atmospheric chemistry transport model (DEHM), address-level population data, exposure-response functions and monetary values applicable for Danish/European conditions. Traditionally, systems that assess economic costs of health impacts from air pollution assume linear approximations in the source-receptor relationships. However, atmospheric chemistry is non-linear and therefore the uncertainty involved in the linear assumption can be large. The EVA system has been developed to take into account the non-linear processes by using a comprehensive, state-of-the-art chemical transport model when calculating how specific changes to emissions affect air pollution levels and the subsequent impacts on human health and cost. Furthermore, we present a new "tagging" method, developed to examine how specific emission sources influence air pollution levels without assuming linearity of the non-linear behaviour of atmospheric chemistry. This method is more precise than the traditional approach based on taking the difference between two concentration fields. Using the EVA system, we have estimated the total external costs from the main emission sectors in Denmark, representing the ten major SNAP codes. Finally, we assess the impacts and external costs of emissions from international ship traffic around Denmark, since there is a high volume of ship traffic in the region.

The impact of clean indoor-air laws and cigarette smuggling on demand for cigarettes: an empirical model.

PubMed

Yurekli, A A; Zhang, P

2000-03-01

This study examines the impact of clean indoor-air laws and smuggling activities on states' per capita cigarette consumption and revenues by using a static demand model. The analysis was based on data for 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) of the United Sates over the period 1970-1995. The estimated price elasticities of demand for cigarettes ranged from -0.48 to -0.62, indicating that a 10% increase in price would reduce consumption per capita by 4.8% to 6.2%. Anti-smoking laws had a significant negative impact on per capita consumption. In 1995, consumption was reduced by 4.7 packs per capita among states with anti-smoking laws, or 1.1 billion fewer packs of cigarettes consumed. Both short-distance smuggling between neighbouring states and long-distance smuggling from Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia existed and were significant. Smuggling activities from military bases and Indian reservations, however, were not significant. On average, 6% of states' tax revenues were lost due to smuggling activities in 1995. Results also showed that short-distance smuggling was less important than long-distance smuggling as a source of the revenue loss. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A simple semi-empirical technique for apportioning the impact of roadways on air quality in an urban neighbourhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elangasinghe, M. A.; Dirks, K. N.; Singhal, N.; Costello, S. B.; Longley, I.; Salmond, J. A.

2014-02-01

Air pollution from the transport sector has a marked effect on human health, so isolating the pollutant contribution from a roadway is important in understanding its impact on the local neighbourhood. This paper proposes a novel technique based on a semi-empirical air pollution model to quantify the impact from a roadway on the air quality of a local neighbourhood using ambient records of a single air pollution monitor. We demonstrate the proposed technique using a case study, in which we quantify the contribution from a major highway with respect to the local background concentration in Auckland, New Zealand. Comparing the diurnal variation of the model-separated background contribution with real measurements from a site upwind of the highway shows that the model estimates are reliable. Amongst all of the pollutants considered, the best estimations of the background were achieved for nitrogen oxides. Although the multi-pronged approach worked well for predominantly vehicle-related pollutants, it could not be used effectively to isolate emissions of PM10 due to the complex and less predictable influence of natural sources (such as marine aerosols). The proposed approach is useful in situations where ambient records from an upwind background station are not available (as required by other techniques) and is potentially transferable to situations such as intersections and arterial roads. Applying this technique to longer time series could help to understand the changes in pollutant concentrations from the road and background sources for different emission scenarios, for different years or seasons. Modelling results also show the potential of such a hybrid semi-empirical models to contribute to our understanding of the physical parameters determining air quality and to validate emissions inventory data.

Evaluation of US and UK Models in Simulating the Impact of Barriers on Near-Road Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

The possibility that roadside noise barriers can act to mitigate traffic-related air pollution exposures for people living and working near major roadways is being considered in the context of public health protection. Air pollution dispersion models that can accurately simulate ...

Impact of U.S. Smoke-free Air Laws on Restaurant and Bar Employment, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Shafer, Paul

2017-12-23

Secondhand smoke exposure is responsible for an estimated 50,000 deaths per year among nonsmokers in the U.S. Smoke-free air laws reduce secondhand smoke exposure but often encounter opposition over concerns about their economic impact. Expansion of these laws has stagnated and efforts to weaken existing laws may exacerbate existing disparities in exposure. Studies at the state and local levels have found that smoke-free air laws do not generally have an adverse effect, but there are no recent estimates of the impact of these laws nationally. Employment and sales are two measures commonly used to estimate the economic impact of smoke-free air laws. Sales data are gathered by state and local taxing authorities but not uniformly across jurisdictions. Dynamic panel models are used to estimate a population-weighted national average treatment effect of smoke-free air laws on restaurant and bar employment using data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for 1990 to 2015. A one-percentage point increase in population covered by a restaurant smoke-free air law is associated with a small increase (approximately 0.01%) in restaurant employment (b=0.0001, P<0.001). The percentage of state population covered by a bar smoke-free air law was not associated with bar employment. Smoke-free air laws are a powerful tool for protecting hospitality workers and patrons from the dangers of secondhand smoke. Using data over more than two decades, these results suggest that smoke-free air laws in the U.S. do not generally have any meaningful effect on restaurant and bar employment. Smoke-free air laws are associated with reductions in negative health outcomes and decreased smoking prevalence. Despite this clear public health argument and strong public support, passage of new laws has stagnated and exemptions are being used to weaken existing laws. The ability to make both a health and business case in support of existing laws may also bolster the case for expansion. This study

Importance and Challenges in Use and Uptake of Air Quality Modelling in Developing Countries: Use of CAMx for Air Quality Management in the City of Johannesburg.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garland, R. M.; Naidoo, M.; Sibiya, B.; Naidoo, S.; Bird, T.; von Gruenewaldt, R.; Liebenberg-Enslin, H.; Nekhwalivhe, M.; Netshandama, J.; Mahlatji, M.

2017-12-01

Ambient air pollution levels are regulated in South Africa; however in many areas pollution concentrations exceed these levels. The South African Air Quality Act also stipulates that government across all levels must have Air Quality Management Plans (AQMP) in place that outline the current state of air quality and emissions, as well as the implementable plan to manage, and where necessary improve, air quality. Historically, dispersion models have been used to support air quality management decisions, including in AQMPs. However, with the focus of air quality management shifting from focusing on industrial point sources to a more integrated and holistic management of all sources, chemical transport models are needed. CAMx was used in the review and development of the City of Johannesburg's AQMP to simulate hot spots of air pollution, as well as to model intervention scenarios. As the pollutants of concern in Johannesburg are ozone and particulate matter, it is critical to use a model that can simulate chemistry. CAMx was run at 1 km with a locally derived emissions inventory for 2014. The sources of pollution in the City are diverse (including, industrial, vehicles, domestic burning, natural), and many sources have large uncertainties in estimating emissions due to lack of necessary data and local emission factors. These uncertainties, together with a lack of measurements to validate the model against, hinder the performance of the model to simulate air quality and thus inform air quality management. However, as air quality worsens in Africa, it is critical for decision makers to have a strong evidence base on the state of air quality and impact of interventions in order to improve air quality effectively. This presentation will highlight the findings from using a chemical transport model for air quality management in the largest city in South Africa, the use and limitations of these for decision-makers, and proposed way forward.

Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

EPA Science Inventory

Sea spray aerosols (SSA) impact the particle mass concentration and gas-particle partitioning in coastal environments, with implications for human and ecosystem health. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is updated to enhance fine mode SSA emissions,...

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the firstmore » set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a

Examining the impact of nitryl chloride chemistry on summertime air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarwar, G.; Simon, H. A.; Bhave, P.; Hutzell, W. T.

2011-12-01

Results of recent field campaigns suggest that heterogeneous reactions can form nitryl chloride (ClNO2) at night. ClNO2 photodissociates into nitrogen dioxide and chlorine radicals during the day. Subsequent photolysis of nitrogen dioxide and reactions of chlorine radicals with volatile organic compounds increase ozone production. Thus, the presence of ClNO2 in the atmosphere can enhance ozone. In this study, the impact of the heterogeneous production of ClNO2 on summertime air quality in the United States is examined by using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Laboratory chamber experimental studies have parameterized the yield of ClNO2 and the heterogeneous uptake of dinitrogen pentoxide on aerosols. We implement these parameterizations into the CMAQ model. In addition to the typical emissions, the model also includes emissions of sea-salt, anthropogenic particulate chloride, anthropogenic hydrochloric acid and molecular chlorine from the National Emissions Inventory. Model simulations are conducted without and with the heterogeneous ClNO2 formation reaction for September 1-10, 2006. The results of the study suggest that the heterogeneous reaction produces ClNO2 in many coastal areas as well as inland locations in the United States. The ClNO2 increase in coastal areas is caused by chloride emissions from sea-salt and in inland-areas by chloride emissions from fire and anthropogenic sources. Predicted ClNO2 levels reach nighttime peaks of up to 4.0 ppb in the Los Angeles area and up to 1.2 ppb near Houston, similar to the measured values reported in the literature. The ClNO2 chemistry decreases nitric acid as well as particulate nitrate by a large margin; consequently it changes composition of NOz. It increases hourly and daily maximum 8-hr ozone by up to 9 ppbv and 6 ppbv, respectively. It increases aerosol sulfate while decreasing aerosol nitrate and ammonium. The accompanying presentation identifies predicted spatial patterns of ClNO2

Carcinogenic Air Toxics Exposure and Their Cancer-Related Health Impacts in the United States.

PubMed

Zhou, Ying; Li, Chaoyang; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Mumtaz, M Moiz

2015-01-01

Public health protection from air pollution can be achieved more effectively by shifting from a single-pollutant approach to a multi-pollutant approach. To develop such multi-pollutant approaches, identifying which air pollutants are present most frequently is essential. This study aims to determine the frequently found carcinogenic air toxics or hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) combinations across the United States as well as to analyze the health impacts of developing cancer due to exposure to these HAPs. To identify the most commonly found carcinogenic air toxics combinations, we first identified HAPs with cancer risk greater than one in a million in more than 5% of the census tracts across the United States, based on the National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) by the U.S. EPA for year 2005. We then calculated the frequencies of their two-component (binary), and three-component (ternary) combinations. To quantify the cancer-related health impacts, we focused on the 10 most frequently found HAPs with national average cancer risk greater than one in a million. Their cancer-related health impacts were calculated by converting lifetime cancer risk reported in NATA 2005 to years of healthy life lost or Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). We found that the most frequently found air toxics with cancer risk greater than one in a million are formaldehyde, carbon tetrachloride, acetaldehyde, and benzene. The most frequently occurring binary pairs and ternary mixtures are the various combinations of these four air toxics. Analysis of urban and rural HAPs did not reveal significant differences in the top combinations of these chemicals. The cumulative annual cancer-related health impacts of inhaling the top 10 carcinogenic air toxics included was about 1,600 DALYs in the United States or 0.6 DALYs per 100,000 people. Formaldehyde and benzene together contribute nearly 60 percent of the total cancer-related health impacts. Our study shows that although there are many

Separating the Air Quality Impact of a Major Highway and Nearby Sources by Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis (NTA), a receptor-oriented model, was used to assess the impact of local sources of air pollution at monitoring sites located adjacent to highway I-15 in Las Vegas, NV. Measurements of black carbon, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur di...

Assessing the short term impact of air pollution on mortality: a matching approach.

PubMed

Baccini, Michela; Mattei, Alessandra; Mealli, Fabrizia; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Carugno, Michele

2017-02-10

The opportunity to assess short term impact of air pollution relies on the causal interpretation of the exposure-response association. However, up to now few studies explicitly faced this issue within a causal inference framework. In this paper, we reformulated the problem of assessing the short term impact of air pollution on health using the potential outcome approach to causal inference. We considered the impact of high daily levels of particulate matter ≤10 μm in diameter (PM 10 ) on mortality within two days from the exposure in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy), during the period 2003-2006. Our research focus was the causal impact of a hypothetical intervention setting daily air pollution levels under a pre-fixed threshold. We applied a matching procedure based on propensity score to estimate the total number of attributable deaths (AD) during the study period. After defining the number of attributable deaths in terms of difference between potential outcomes, we used the estimated propensity score to match each high exposure day, namely each day with a level of exposure higher than 40 μg/m 3 , with a day with similar background characteristics but a level of exposure lower than 40 μg/m 3 . Then, we estimated the impact by comparing mortality between matched days. During the study period daily exposures larger than 40 μg/m 3 were responsible for 1079 deaths (90% CI: 116; 2042). The impact was more evident among the elderly than in the younger age classes. Exposures ≥ 40 μg/m 3 were responsible, among the elderly, for 1102 deaths (90% CI: 388, 1816), of which 797 from cardiovascular causes and 243 from respiratory causes. Clear evidence of an impact on respiratory mortality was found also in the age class 65-74, with 87 AD (90% CI: 11, 163). The propensity score matching turned out to be an appealing method to assess historical impacts in this field, which guarantees that the estimated total number of AD can be derived directly as sum

Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stenner, Robert D.; Hadley, Donald L.; Armstrong, Peter R.

2001-03-01

Indoor air quality effects on human health are of increasing concern to public health agencies and building owners. The prevention and treatment of 'sick building' syndrome and the spread of air-borne diseases in hospitals, for example, are well known priorities. However, increasing attention is being directed to the vulnerability of our public buildings/places, public security and national defense facilities to terrorist attack or the accidental release of air-borne biological pathogens, harmful chemicals, or radioactive contaminants. The Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System (IA-NBC-HMAS) was developed to serve as a health impact analysis tool for usemore » in addressing these concerns. The overall goal was to develop a user-friendly fully functional prototype Health Modeling and Assessment system, which will operate under the PNNL FRAMES system for ease of use and to maximize its integration with other modeling and assessment capabilities accessible within the FRAMES system (e.g., ambient air fate and transport models, water borne fate and transport models, Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic models, etc.). The prototype IA-NBC-HMAS is designed to serve as a functional Health Modeling and Assessment system that can be easily tailored to meet specific building analysis needs of a customer. The prototype system was developed and tested using an actual building (i.e., the Churchville Building located at the Aberdeen Proving Ground) and release scenario (i.e., the release and measurement of tracer materials within the building) to ensure realism and practicality in the design and development of the prototype system. A user-friendly "demo" accompanies this report to allow the reader the opportunity for a "hands on" review of the prototype system's capability.« less

Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic, air and stormwater modelling.

PubMed

Fallah Shorshani, Masoud; Bonhomme, Céline; Petrucci, Guido; André, Michel; Seigneur, Christian

2014-04-01

Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.

Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios

PubMed Central

Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M.

2016-01-01

There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures. PMID:28090133

Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios.

PubMed

Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M

2016-02-01

There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures.

Assessment of the Impact of The East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Nan; Ding, Aijun; Safieddine, Sarah; Valks, Pieter; Clerbaux, Cathy; Trautmann, Thomas

2016-04-01

Air pollution is one of the most important environmental problems in developing Asian countries like China. In this region, studies showed that the East Asian monsoon plays a significant role in characterizing the temporal variation and spatial patterns of air pollution, since monsoon is a major atmospheric system affecting air mass transport, convection, and precipitation. Knowledge gaps still exist in the understanding of Asian monsoon impact on the air quality in China under the background of global climate change. For the first time satellite observations of tropospheric ozone and its precursors will be integrated with the ground-based, aircraft measurements of air pollutants and model simulations to study the impact of the East Asian monsoon on air quality in China. We apply multi-platform satellite observations by the GOME-2, IASI, and MOPITT instruments to analyze tropospheric ozone and CO, precursors of ozone (NO2, HCHO and CHOCHO) and other related trace gases over China. Two years measurements of air pollutants including NO2, HONO, SO2, HCHO and CHOCHO at a regional back-ground site in the western part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in eastern China will be presented. The potential of using the current generation of satellite instruments, ground-based instruments and aircraft to monitor air quality changes caused by the East Asian monsoon circulation will be presented. Preliminary comparison results between satellite measurement and limited but valuable ground-based and aircraft measurements will also be showed.

IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON VEGETATION NEAR THE COLUMBIA GENERATING STATION - WISCONSIN POWER PLANT IMPACT STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of air pollution from the coal-fired Columbia Generating Station upon vegetation was investigated. Air monitoring of 03 and 02 documented levels that occurred before and with operation of the generating station. Field sampling of alfalfa, lichens, and white pines was u...

Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling.

Treesearch

Christine Wiedinmyer; Brad Quayle; Chris Geron; Angie Belote; Don McKenzie; Xiaoyang Zhang; Susan O' Neill; Kristina Klos Wynne

2006-01-01

Fires contribute substantial emissions of trace gases and particles to the atmosphere. These emissions can impact air quality and even climate. We have developed a modeling framework to estimate the emissions from fires in North and parts of Central America (10-71 ˚N and 55-175 ˚W) by taking advantage of a combination of complementary satellite and...

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnock, S. T.; Butt, E. W.; Richardson, T. B.; Mann, G. W.; Reddington, C. L.; Forster, P. M.; Haywood, J.; Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Johnson, C. E.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Spracklen, D. V.

2016-02-01

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000-116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr-1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human

Globalizing Air Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have revealed the issue of globalizing air pollution through complex coupling of atmospheric transport (physical route) and economic trade (socioeconomic route). Recognition of such globalizing air pollution has important implications for understanding the impacts of regional and global consumption (of goods and services) on air quality, public health, climate and the ecosystems. And addressing these questions often requires improved modeling, measurements and economic-emission statistics. This talk will introduce the concept and mechanism of globalizing air pollution, with following demonstrations based on recent works on modeling, satellite measurement and multi-disciplinary assessment.

Microscale air quality impacts of distributed power generation facilities.

PubMed

Olaguer, Eduardo P; Knipping, Eladio; Shaw, Stephanie; Ravindran, Satish

2016-08-01

The electric system is experiencing rapid growth in the adoption of a mix of distributed renewable and fossil fuel sources, along with increasing amounts of off-grid generation. New operational regimes may have unforeseen consequences for air quality. A three-dimensional microscale chemical transport model (CTM) driven by an urban wind model was used to assess gaseous air pollutant and particulate matter (PM) impacts within ~10 km of fossil-fueled distributed power generation (DG) facilities during the early afternoon of a typical summer day in Houston, TX. Three types of DG scenarios were considered in the presence of motor vehicle emissions and a realistic urban canopy: (1) a 25-MW natural gas turbine operating at steady state in either simple cycle or combined heating and power (CHP) mode; (2) a 25-MW simple cycle gas turbine undergoing a cold startup with either moderate or enhanced formaldehyde emissions; and (3) a data center generating 10 MW of emergency power with either diesel or natural gas-fired backup generators (BUGs) without pollution controls. Simulations of criteria pollutants (NO2, CO, O3, PM) and the toxic pollutant, formaldehyde (HCHO), were conducted assuming a 2-hr operational time period. In all cases, NOx titration dominated ozone production near the source. The turbine scenarios did not result in ambient concentration enhancements significantly exceeding 1 ppbv for gaseous pollutants or over 1 µg/m(3) for PM after 2 hr of emission, assuming realistic plume rise. In the case of the datacenter with diesel BUGs, ambient NO2 concentrations were enhanced by 10-50 ppbv within 2 km downwind of the source, while maximum PM impacts in the immediate vicinity of the datacenter were less than 5 µg/m(3). Plausible scenarios of distributed fossil generation consistent with the electricity grid's transformation to a more flexible and modernized system suggest that a substantial amount of deployment would be required to significantly affect air quality on

The Impact of Winter Heating on Air Pollution in China

PubMed Central

Xiao, Qingyang; Ma, Zongwei; Li, Shenshen; Liu, Yang

2015-01-01

Fossil-fuel combustion related winter heating has become a major air quality and public health concern in northern China recently. We analyzed the impact of winter heating on aerosol loadings over China using the MODIS-Aqua Collection 6 aerosol product from 2004–2012. Absolute humidity (AH) and planetary boundary layer height (PBL) -adjusted aerosol optical depth (AOD*) was constructed to reflect ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. GIS analysis, standard statistical tests, and statistical modeling indicate that winter heating is an important factor causing increased PM2.5 levels in more than three-quarters of central and eastern China. The heating season AOD* was more than five times higher as the non-heating season AOD*, and the increase in AOD* in the heating areas was greater than in the non-heating areas. Finally, central heating tend to contribute less to air pollution relative to other means of household heating. PMID:25629878

Impact of ambient air pollution on obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

An, Ruopeng; Ji, Mengmeng; Yan, Hai; Guan, Chenghua

2018-05-24

Over 80% of the global populations living in urban areas are exposed to air quality levels that exceed the World Health Organization limits. Air pollution may lead to unhealthy body weight through metabolic dysfunction, chronic disease onset, and disruption of regular physical activity. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed and Web of Science for peer-reviewed articles published until September 2017 that assessed the relationship between air pollution and body weight status. A standardized data extraction form was used to collect methodological and outcome variables from each eligible study. Sixteen studies met the selection criteria and were included in the review. They were conducted in seven countries, including the US (n = 9), China (n = 2), Canada (n = 1), Italy (n = 1), The Netherlands (n = 1), Serbia (n = 1), and South Korea (n = 1). Half of them adopted a longitudinal study design, and the rest adopted a cross-sectional study design. Commonly examined air pollutants included PM, NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 , and overall air quality index. Among a total of 66 reported associations between air pollution and body weight status, 29 (44%) found air pollution to be positively associated with body weight, 29 (44%) reported a null finding, and the remaining eight (12%) found air pollution to be negatively associated with body weight. The reported associations between air pollution and body weight status varied by sex, age group, and type of air pollutant. Three pathways hypothesized in the selected studies were through increased oxidative stress and adipose tissue inflammation, elevated risk for chronic comorbidities, and insufficient physical activity. Concurrent evidence regarding the impact of air pollution on body weight status remains mixed. Future studies should assess the impact of severe air pollution on obesity in developing countries, focus on a homogenous population subgroup, and elucidate the biomedical and psychosocial

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

PubMed

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CMAQ is a computational tool used for air quality management. It models air pollutants including ozone, particulate matter and other air toxics to help determine optimum air quality management scenarios.

Assessing air quality impacts of managed lanes : summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Researchers at the National Center for Transit Research, University of South Florida, recently studied a segment of I-95 between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami to investigate the impacts of high-occupancy/toll (HOT) lanes on air quality. The project simula...

Impact of aeroelasticity on propulsion and longitudinal flight dynamics of an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raney, David L.; Mcminn, John D.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Wooley, Christine L.

1993-01-01

Many air-breathing hypersonic aerospacecraft design concepts incorporate an elongated fuselage forebody acting as the aerodynamic compression surface for a hypersonic combustion module, or scram jet. This highly integrated design approach creates the potential for an unprecedented form of aero-propulsive-elastic interaction in which deflections of the vehicle fuselage give rise to propulsion transients, producing force and moment variations that may adversely impact the rigid body flight dynamics and/or further excite the fuselage bending modes. To investigate the potential for such interactions, a math model was developed which included the longitudinal flight dynamics, propulsion system, and first seven elastic modes of a hypersonic air-breathing vehicle. Perturbation time histories from a simulation incorporating this math model are presented that quantify the propulsive force and moment variations resulting from aeroelastic vehicle deflections. Root locus plots are presented to illustrate the effect of feeding the propulsive perturbations back into the aeroelastic model. A concluding section summarizes the implications of the observed effects for highly integrated hypersonic air-breathing vehicle concepts.

Impact of aeroelasticity on propulsion and longitudinal flight dynamics of an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raney, David L.; McMinn, John D.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Wooley, Christine L.

1993-04-01

Many air-breathing hypersonic aerospacecraft design concepts incorporate an elongated fuselage forebody acting as the aerodynamic compression surface for a hypersonic combustion module, or scram jet. This highly integrated design approach creates the potential for an unprecedented form of aero-propulsive-elastic interaction in which deflections of the vehicle fuselage give rise to propulsion transients, producing force and moment variations that may adversely impact the rigid body flight dynamics and/or further excite the fuselage bending modes. To investigate the potential for such interactions, a math model was developed which included the longitudinal flight dynamics, propulsion system, and first seven elastic modes of a hypersonic air-breathing vehicle. Perturbation time histories from a simulation incorporating this math model are presented that quantify the propulsive force and moment variations resulting from aeroelastic vehicle deflections. Root locus plots are presented to illustrate the effect of feeding the propulsive perturbations back into the aeroelastic model. A concluding section summarizes the implications of the observed effects for highly integrated hypersonic air-breathing vehicle concepts.

A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution.

PubMed

Nasari, Masoud M; Szyszkowicz, Mieczysław; Chen, Hong; Crouse, Daniel; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C Arden; Hubbell, Bryan; Fann, Neal; Cohen, Aaron; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W Ryan; Stieb, David; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T

2016-01-01

The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.

Analyzing the efficiency of short-term air quality plans in European cities, using the CHIMERE air quality model.

PubMed

Thunis, P; Degraeuwe, B; Pisoni, E; Meleux, F; Clappier, A

2017-01-01

Regional and local authorities have the obligation to design air quality plans and assess their impacts when concentration levels exceed the limit values. Because these limit values cover both short- (day) and long-term (year) effects, air quality plans also follow these two formats. In this work, we propose a methodology to analyze modeled air quality forecast results, looking at emission reduction for different sectors (residential, transport, agriculture, etc.) with the aim of supporting policy makers in assessing the impact of short-term action plans. Regarding PM 10 , results highlight the diversity of responses across European cities, in terms of magnitude and type that raises the necessity of designing area-specific air quality plans. Action plans extended from 1 to 3 days (i.e., emissions reductions applied for 24 and 72 h, respectively) point to the added value of trans-city coordinated actions. The largest benefits are seen in central Europe (Vienna, Prague) while major cities (e.g., Paris) already solve a large part of the problem on their own. Eastern Europe would particularly benefit from plans based on emission reduction in the residential sectors; while in northern cities, agriculture seems to be the key sector on which to focus attention. Transport is playing a key role in most cities whereas the impact of industry is limited to a few cities in south-eastern Europe. For NO 2 , short-term action plans focusing on traffic emission reductions are efficient in all cities. This is due to the local character of this type of pollution. It is important, however, to stress that these results remain dependent on the selected months available for this study.

Advances in Understanding Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Diseases: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Joel D.; Spalt, Elizabeth W.; Curl, Cynthia L.; Hajat, Anjum; Jones, Miranda R.; Kim, Sun-Young; Vedal, Sverre; Szpiro, Adam A.; Gassett, Amanda; Sheppard, Lianne; Daviglus, Martha L.; Adar, Sara D.

2016-01-01

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) leveraged the platform of the MESA cohort into a prospective longitudinal study of relationships between air pollution and cardiovascular health. MESA Air researchers developed fine-scale, state-of-the-art air pollution exposure models for the MESA Air communities, creating individual exposure estimates for each participant. These models combine cohort-specific exposure monitoring, existing monitoring systems, and an extensive database of geographic and meteorological information. Together with extensive phenotyping in MESA—and adding participants and health measurements to the cohort—MESA Air investigated environmental exposures on a wide range of outcomes. Advances by the MESA Air team included not only a new approach to exposure modeling but also biostatistical advances in addressing exposure measurement error and temporal confounding. The MESA Air study advanced our understanding of the impact of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease and provided a research platform for advances in environmental epidemiology. PMID:27741981

Managing air pollution impacted forests of California

Treesearch

Michael J. Arbaugh; Trent Proctor; Annie Esperanza

2009-01-01

Fuel treatments (prescribed fire and mechanical removal) on public lands in California are critical for reducing fuel accumulation and wildfire frequency and severity and protecting private property located in the wildland–urban interface. Treatments are especially needed in forests impacted by air pollution and subject to climate change. High ambient ozone (O

Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Cross-State Air Pollution Rule

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) presents the health and welfare benefits, costs, and other impacts of the Transport Rule, also called the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, focusing primarily on 2014.

A Multiple Agent Model of Human Performance in Automated Air Traffic Control and Flight Management Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corker, Kevin; Pisanich, Gregory; Condon, Gregory W. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

A predictive model of human operator performance (flight crew and air traffic control (ATC)) has been developed and applied in order to evaluate the impact of automation developments in flight management and air traffic control. The model is used to predict the performance of a two person flight crew and the ATC operators generating and responding to clearances aided by the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The purpose of the modeling is to support evaluation and design of automated aids for flight management and airspace management and to predict required changes in procedure both air and ground in response to advancing automation in both domains. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Modelling the emissions from ships in ports and their impact on air quality in the metropolitan area of Hamburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramacher, Martin; Karl, Matthias; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

2016-04-01

Exhaust emissions from shipping contribute significantly to the anthropogenic burden of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOX) and particulate matter (PM). Ships emit not only when sailing on open sea, but also when approaching harbors, during port manoeuvers and at berth to produce electricity and heat for the ship's operations. This affects the population of harbor cities because long-term exposure to PM and NOX has significant effects on human health. The European Union has therefore has set air quality standards for air pollutants. Many port cities have problems meeting these standards. The port of Hamburg with around 10.000 ship calls per year is Germany's largest seaport and Europe's second largest container port. Air quality standard reporting in Hamburg has revealed problems in meeting limits for NO2 and PM10. The amount and contribution of port related ship emissions (38% for NOx and 17% for PM10) to the overall emissions in the metropolitan area in 2005 [BSU Hamburg (2012): Luftreinhalteplan für Hamburg. 1. Fortschreibung 2012] has been modelled with a bottom up approach by using statistical data of ship activities in the harbor, technical vessel information and specific emission algorithms [GAUSS (2008): Quantifizierung von gasförmigen Emissionen durch Maschinenanlagen der Seeschiffart an der deutschen Küste]. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of the harbor ship emissions over the city area is crucial when it comes to air quality standards and policy decisions to protect human health. Hence, this model study examines the spatial distribution of harbor ship emissions (NOX, PM10) and their deposition in the Hamburg metropolitan area. The transport and chemical transformation of atmospheric pollutants is calculated with the well-established chemistry transport model TAPM (The Air Pollution Model). TAPM is a three-dimensional coupled prognostic meteorological and air pollution model with a condensed chemistry scheme including

Ambient air quality programmes for health impact assessment in the WHO European region.

PubMed

Mücke, H G

2000-06-01

An important aim of air quality assessment is to provide information about population exposure and health impact assessment. Numerous epidemiological studies have already shown that exposure to excessive levels of ambient air pollutants are associated with either acute or chronic health effects. Until recently, the adequacy of monitoring population exposure in relation to quantitative assessment of health effects of air pollution was rarely considered in ambient air monitoring strategies. This made the formulation of health-related recommendations to risk management difficult and weakens preventive and other measures to reduce adverse health effects of air pollution. To improve local and national capacities for health impact assessment, the European Centre for Environment and Health of the World Health Organization has prepared methodology guidelines concerning selected aspects of air monitoring. The WHO Collaborating Centre for Air Quality Management and Air Pollution Control support efforts in line with international programmes on quality assurance and control for Europe.

Simulation of air-bag impact on an eye with transsclerally fixated posterior chamber intraocular lens using finite element analysis.

PubMed

Uchio, Eiichi; Kadonosono, Kazuaki; Matsuoka, Yasuhiro; Goto, Satoru

2004-02-01

To determine the physical and mechanical conditions of an impacting air bag that would rupture an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber intraocular lens (IOL). Numerical simulation study on a computer. Simulations in a model human eye were performed with a computer using the finite element analysis program PAM-CRASH (Nihon ESI). The air bag was set to impact the surface of an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber IOL at various velocities. The tensile force limit of a 10-1 polypropylene suture was assumed to be 0.16 N, which is specified in the U.S. Pharmacopeia XXII. At the lowest velocity of 20.0 m/s, 10-0 polypropylene sutures were not likely to break. Sutures fixating the IOL might break and a corneoscleral incision was likely to open after 0.3 second at the medium impacting velocity (30 m/s). Suture rupture was very likely at the highest velocity (40 m/s) since the tensile force on the sutures continuously exceeded the breaking force after the impact. In an eye with a transsclerally fixated posterior chamber IOL, severe ocular trauma can be caused by an air bag at high velocity. Small individuals such as elderly women are at greater risk for air-bag ocular injury. Further research on modifying air-bag design and deployment is important to minimize the risk for ocular injury.

Air carrier operations system model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-01

Representatives from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and several 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121 air carriers met several times during 1999-2000 to develop a system engineering model of the generic functions of air carrier ope...

Separating the air quality impact of a major highway and nearby sources by nonparametric trajectory analysis.

PubMed

Henry, Ronald C; Vette, Alan; Norris, Gary; Vedantham, Ram; Kimbrough, Sue; Shores, Richard C

2011-12-15

Nonparametric Trajectory Analysis (NTA), a receptor-oriented model, was used to assess the impact of local sources of air pollution at monitoring sites located adjacent to highway I-15 in Las Vegas, NV. Measurements of black carbon, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide concentrations were collected from December 2008 to December 2009. The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of the highway at three downwind monitoring stations using an upwind station to measure background concentrations. NTA was used to precisely determine the contribution of the highway to the average concentrations measured at the monitoring stations accounting for the spatially heterogeneous contributions of other local urban sources. NTA uses short time average concentrations, 5 min in this case, and constructed local back-trajectories from similarly short time average wind speed and direction to locate and quantify contributions from local source regions. Averaged over an entire year, the decrease of concentrations with distance from the highway was found to be consistent with previous studies. For this study, the NTA model is shown to be a reliable approach to quantify the impact of the highway on local air quality in an urban area with other local sources.

Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality mana...

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately

Impacts of air pollution wave on years of life lost: A crucial way to communicate the health risks of air pollution to the public.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Pan, Xiaochuan; Guo, Xinbiao; Li, Guoxing

2018-04-01

Limited studies have explored the impacts of exposure to sustained high levels of air pollution (air pollution wave) on mortality. Given that the frequency, intensity and duration of air pollution wave has been increasing in highly polluted regions recently, understanding the impacts of air pollution wave is crucial. In this study, air pollution wave was defined as 2 or more consecutive days with air pollution index (API) > 100. The impacts of air pollution wave on years of life lost (YLL) due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory deaths were evaluated by considering both consecutive days with high levels of air pollution and daily air pollution levels in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. The results showed the durational effect of consecutive days with high levels of air pollution was substantial in addition to the effect of daily air pollution. For instance, the durational effect was related to an increase in YLL of 116.6 (95% CI: 4.8, 228.5) years from non-accidental deaths when the air pollution wave was sustained for 4 days, while the corresponding daily air pollution's effect was 121.2 (95% CI: 55.2, 187.1) years. A better interpretation of the health risks of air pollution wave is crucial for air pollution control policy making and public health interventions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Hongbin

2011-01-01

Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

Assessing the ability of mechanistic volatilization models to simulate soil surface conditions: a study with the Volt'Air model.

PubMed

Garcia, L; Bedos, C; Génermont, S; Braud, I; Cellier, P

2011-09-01

Ammonia and pesticide volatilization in the field is a surface phenomenon involving physical and chemical processes that depend on the soil surface temperature and water content. The water transfer, heat transfer and energy budget sub models of volatilization models are adapted from the most commonly accepted formalisms and parameterizations. They are less detailed than the dedicated models describing water and heat transfers and surface status. The aim of this work was to assess the ability of one of the available mechanistic volatilization models, Volt'Air, to accurately describe the pedo-climatic conditions of a soil surface at the required time and space resolution. The assessment involves: (i) a sensitivity analysis, (ii) an evaluation of Volt'Air outputs in the light of outputs from a reference Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model (SiSPAT) and three experimental datasets, and (iii) the study of three tests based on modifications of SiSPAT to establish the potential impact of the simplifying assumptions used in Volt'Air. The analysis confirmed that a 5 mm surface layer was well suited, and that Volt'Air surface temperature correlated well with the experimental measurements as well as with SiSPAT outputs. In terms of liquid water transfers, Volt'Air was overall consistent with SiSPAT, with discrepancies only during major rainfall events and dry weather conditions. The tests enabled us to identify the main source of the discrepancies between Volt'Air and SiSPAT: the lack of gaseous water transfer description in Volt'Air. They also helped to explain why neither Volt'Air nor SiSPAT was able to represent lower values of surface water content: current classical water retention and hydraulic conductivity models are not yet adapted to cases of very dry conditions. Given the outcomes of this study, we discuss to what extent the volatilization models can be improved and the questions they pose for current research in water transfer modeling and parameterization

Review of air pollution and health impacts in Malaysia.

PubMed

Afroz, Rafia; Hassan, Mohd Nasir; Ibrahim, Noor Akma

2003-06-01

In the early days of abundant resources and minimal development pressures, little attention was paid to growing environmental concerns in Malaysia. The haze episodes in Southeast Asia in 1983, 1984, 1991, 1994, and 1997 imposed threats to the environmental management of Malaysia and increased awareness of the environment. As a consequence, the government established Malaysian Air Quality Guidelines, the Air Pollution Index, and the Haze Action Plan to improve air quality. Air quality monitoring is part of the initial strategy in the pollution prevention program in Malaysia. Review of air pollution in Malaysia is based on the reports of the air quality monitoring in several large cities in Malaysia, which cover air pollutants such as Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3), and Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM). The results of the monitoring indicate that Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) are the predominant pollutants. Other pollutants such as CO, O(x), SO2, and Pb are also observed in several big cities in Malaysia. The air pollution comes mainly from land transportation, industrial emissions, and open burning sources. Among them, land transportation contributes the most to air pollution. This paper reviews the results of the ambient air quality monitoring and studies related to air pollution and health impacts.

Impact of National Ambient Air Quality Standards Nonattainment Designations on Particulate Pollution and Health.

PubMed

Zigler, Corwin M; Choirat, Christine; Dominici, Francesca

2018-03-01

Despite dramatic air quality improvement in the United States over the past decades, recent years have brought renewed scrutiny and uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of specific regulatory programs for continuing to improve air quality and public health outcomes. We employ causal inference methods and a spatial hierarchical regression model to characterize the extent to which a designation of "nonattainment" with the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in 2005 causally affected ambient PM2.5 and health outcomes among over 10 million Medicare beneficiaries in the Eastern United States in 2009-2012. We found that, on average across all retained study locations, reductions in ambient PM2.5 and Medicare health outcomes could not be conclusively attributed to the nonattainment designations against the backdrop of other regional strategies that impacted the entire Eastern United States. A more targeted principal stratification analysis indicates substantial health impacts of the nonattainment designations among the subset of areas where the designations are estimated to have actually reduced ambient PM2.5 beyond levels achieved by regional measures, with noteworthy reductions in all-cause mortality, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and respiratory tract infections. These findings provide targeted evidence of the effectiveness of local control measures after nonattainment designations for the 1997 PM2.5 air quality standard.

Impact of exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology: effect of error type in time-series studies.

PubMed

Goldman, Gretchen T; Mulholland, James A; Russell, Armistead G; Strickland, Matthew J; Klein, Mitchel; Waller, Lance A; Tolbert, Paige E

2011-06-22

Two distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta. Daily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits. Measurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed. For multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling

Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Helena

2012-07-01

Urban sprawl is altering the landscape, with current trends pointing to further changes in land use that will, in turn, lead to changes in population, energy consumption, atmospheric emissions and air quality. Urban planners have debated on the most sustainable urban structure, with arguments in favour and against urban compaction and dispersion. However, it is clear that other areas of expertise have to be involved. Urban air quality and human exposure to atmospheric pollutants as indicators of urban sustainability can contribute to the discussion, namely through the study of the relation between urban structure and air quality. This paper addresses the issue by analysing the impacts of alternative urban growth patterns on the air quality of Porto urban region in Portugal, through a 1-year simulation with the MM5-CAMx modelling system. This region has been experiencing one of the highest European rates of urban sprawl, and at the same time presents a poor air quality. As part of the modelling system setup, a sensitivity study was conducted regarding different land use datasets and spatial distribution of emissions. Two urban development scenarios were defined, SPRAWL and COMPACT, together with their new land use and emission datasets; then meteorological and air quality simulations were performed. Results reveal that SPRAWL land use changes resulted in an average temperature increase of 0.4 °C, with local increases reaching as high as 1.5 °C. SPRAWL results also show an aggravation of PM10 annual average values and an increase in the exceedances to the daily limit value. For ozone, differences between scenarios were smaller, with SPRAWL presenting larger concentration differences than COMPACT. Finally, despite the higher concentrations found in SPRAWL, population exposure to the pollutants is higher for COMPACT because more inhabitants are found in areas of highest concentration levels.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality over China: View from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Wang, Yuhang; Yang, Qing

2010-05-04

Tropospheric O3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, CO columns from MOPITT, and tropospheric O3 and CO concentrations from TES from May to August in 2006 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM) to investigate the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China. The observed and simulated migrations of O3 and CO are in good agreement, demonstrating that the summer monsoon significantly affects the air quality over southeastern China and this influence extends to central East China from June to July. Enhancements of CO and O3 over southeastern China disappearmore » after the onset of the summer monsoon and re-emerge in August after the monsoon wanes. The pre-monsoon high O3 concentrations over southern China are due to photochemical production from pollutant emissions and the O3 transport from the stratosphere. In the summer monsoon season, the O3 concentrations are relatively low over monsoon-affected regions because of the transport of marine air masses and weak photochemical activity. We find that the monsoon system strongly modulates the pollution problem over a large portion of East China in summer, depending on its strength and tempo-spatial extension. Model results also suggest that transport from the stratosphere and long-range transport from East China and South/Central Asia all make significant contributions to O3 enhancements over West China. Satellite observations provide valuable information for investigating the monsoon impact on air quality, particularly for the regions with limited in situ measurements.« less

[Applying temporally-adjusted land use regression models to estimate ambient air pollution exposure during pregnancy].

PubMed

Zhang, Y J; Xue, F X; Bai, Z P

2017-03-06

The impact of maternal air pollution exposure on offspring health has received much attention. Precise and feasible exposure estimation is particularly important for clarifying exposure-response relationships and reducing heterogeneity among studies. Temporally-adjusted land use regression (LUR) models are exposure assessment methods developed in recent years that have the advantage of having high spatial-temporal resolution. Studies on the health effects of outdoor air pollution exposure during pregnancy have been increasingly carried out using this model. In China, research applying LUR models was done mostly at the model construction stage, and findings from related epidemiological studies were rarely reported. In this paper, the sources of heterogeneity and research progress of meta-analysis research on the associations between air pollution and adverse pregnancy outcomes were analyzed. The methods of the characteristics of temporally-adjusted LUR models were introduced. The current epidemiological studies on adverse pregnancy outcomes that applied this model were systematically summarized. Recommendations for the development and application of LUR models in China are presented. This will encourage the implementation of more valid exposure predictions during pregnancy in large-scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of air pollution in China.

Air pollution impacts on avian species via inhalation exposure and associated outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderfoot, Olivia V.; Holloway, Tracey

2017-08-01

Despite the well-established links between air pollution and human health, vegetation, and aquatic ecosystems, less attention has been paid to the potential impact of reactive atmospheric gases and aerosols on avian species. In this literature review, we summarize findings published since 1950 regarding avian responses to air pollution and discuss knowledge gaps that could be addressed in future studies. We find consistent evidence for adverse health impacts on birds attributable to exposure to gas-phase and particulate air pollutants, including carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), smoke, and heavy metals, as well as mixtures of urban and industrial emissions. Avian responses to air pollution include respiratory distress and illness, increased detoxification effort, elevated stress levels, immunosuppression, behavioral changes, and impaired reproductive success. Exposure to air pollution may furthermore reduce population density, species diversity, and species richness in bird communities.

Binary logistic regression-Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits.

PubMed

Bucur, Elena; Danet, Andrei Florin; Lehr, Carol Blaziu; Lehr, Elena; Nita-Lazar, Mihai

2017-04-01

This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 and PM 2.5 ) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O 3 >PM 2.5 >NO 2 >humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO 2 and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space. The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive

STEMS-Air: a simple GIS-based air pollution dispersion model for city-wide exposure assessment.

PubMed

Gulliver, John; Briggs, David

2011-05-15

Current methods of air pollution modelling do not readily meet the needs of air pollution mapping for short-term (i.e. daily) exposure studies. The main limiting factor is that for those few models that couple with a GIS there are insufficient tools for directly mapping air pollution both at high spatial resolution and over large areas (e.g. city wide). A simple GIS-based air pollution model (STEMS-Air) has been developed for PM(10) to meet these needs with the option to choose different exposure averaging periods (e.g. daily and annual). STEMS-Air uses the grid-based FOCALSUM function in ArcGIS in conjunction with a fine grid of emission sources and basic information on meteorology to implement a simple Gaussian plume model of air pollution dispersion. STEMS-Air was developed and validated in London, UK, using data on concentrations of PM(10) from routinely available monitoring data. Results from the validation study show that STEMS-Air performs well in predicting both daily (at four sites) and annual (at 30 sites) concentrations of PM(10). For daily modelling, STEMS-Air achieved r(2) values in the range 0.19-0.43 (p<0.001) based solely on traffic-related emissions and r(2) values in the range 0.41-0.63 (p<0.001) when adding information on 'background' levels of PM(10). For annual modelling of PM(10), the model returned r(2) in the range 0.67-0.77 (P<0.001) when compared with monitored concentrations. The model can thus be used for rapid production of daily or annual city-wide air pollution maps either as a screening process in urban air quality planning and management, or as the basis for health risk assessment and epidemiological studies. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeled Oil and Gas Atmospheric Impacts in National Parks and Wilderness Areas in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. M.; Barna, M. G.; Schichtel, B. A.; Vimont, J.; Moore, C. T.

2014-12-01

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (class 1&2 areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with two year-long modeling episodes representing 2008 and 2011, meteorology and emissions. The model inputs for the 2008 and 2011 episodes were generated as part of the West-wide Jump-start Air Quality Modeling Study (WestJumpAQMS) and Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) respectively. Both studies included a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States for the respective years. Each year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the class 1&2 areas in the Western US. We also present temporal trends of O&G impacts, differentiating between trends in urban and rural areas.

Remote Sensing Characterization of the Urban Landscape for Improvement of Air Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Khan, Maudood

2005-01-01

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, in moderating ground-level ozone and air temperature, compared to "business as usual" simulations in which heat island mitigation strategies are not applied. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low densityhburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for fiture scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the state Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these

The Flight Track Noise Impact Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burn, Melissa; Carey, Jeffrey; Czech, Joseph; Wingrove, Earl R., III

1997-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The Flight Track Noise Impact Model (FTNIM) has been developed as part of the ASAC. Its primary purpose is to enable users to examine the impact that quieter aircraft technologies and/or operations might have on air carrier operating efficiency at any one of 8 selected U.S. airports. The analyst selects an airport and case year for study, chooses a set of flight tracks for use in the case, and has the option of reducing the noise of the aircraft by 3, 6, or 10 decibels. Two sets of flight tracks are available for each airport: one that represents actual current conditions, including noise abatement tracks, which avoid flying over noise-sensitive areas; and a second set that offers more efficient routing. FTNIM computes the resultant noise impact and the time and distance saved for each operation on the more efficient, alternate tracks. Noise impact is characterized in three ways: the size of the noise contour footprint, the number of people living within the contours, and the number of homes located in the same contours. Distance and time savings are calculated by comparing the noise abatement flight path length to the more efficient alternate routing.

Impact of reduced mass of light commercial vehicles on fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, air quality, and socio-economic costs.

PubMed

Cecchel, S; Chindamo, D; Turrini, E; Carnevale, C; Cornacchia, G; Gadola, M; Panvini, A; Volta, M; Ferrario, D; Golimbioschi, R

2018-02-01

This study presents a modelling system to evaluate the impact of weight reduction in light commercial vehicles with diesel engines on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. The PROPS model assesses the emissions of one vehicle in the aforementioned category and its corresponding reduced-weight version. The results serve as an input to the RIAT+ tool, an air quality integrated assessment modelling system. This paper applies the tools in a case study in the Lombardy region (Italy) and discusses the input data pre-processing, the PROPS-RIAT+ modelling system runs, and the results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

2016-11-01

Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual

The Impact of a Potential Shale Gas Development in Germany and the United Kingdom on Local and Regional Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weger, L.; Lupascu, A.; Cremonese, L.; Butler, T. M.

2017-12-01

Numerous countries in Europe that possess domestic shale gas reserves are considering exploiting this unconventional gas resource as part of their energy transition agenda. While natural gas generates less CO2 emissions upon combustion compared to coal or oil, making it attractive as a bridge in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, production of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and air pollutants such as NOx, VOCs and PM. These gases in turn influence the climate as well as air quality. In this study, we investigate the impact of a potential shale gas development in Germany and the United Kingdom on local and regional air quality. This work builds on our previous study in which we constructed emissions scenarios based on shale gas utilization in these counties. In order to explore the influence of shale gas production on air quality, we investigate emissions predicted from our shale gas scenarios with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. In order to do this, we first design a model set-up over Europe and evaluate its performance for the meteorological and chemical parameters. Subsequently we add shale gas emissions fluxes based on the scenarios over the area of the grid in which the shale gas activities are predicted to occur. Finally, we model these emissions and analyze the impact on air quality on both a local and regional scale. The aims of this work are to predict the range of adverse effects on air quality, highlight the importance of emissions control strategies in reducing air pollution, to promote further discussion, and to provide policy makers with information for decision making on a potential shale gas development in the two study countries.

The Regional Impacts of Cooking and Heating Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Disease Burden in China.

PubMed

Archer-Nicholls, Scott; Carter, Ellison; Kumar, Rajesh; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Frostad, Joseph; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Cohen, Aaron; Brauer, Michael; Baumgartner, Jill; Wiedinmyer, Christine

2016-09-06

Exposure to air pollution is a major risk factor globally and particularly in Asia. A large portion of air pollutants result from residential combustion of solid biomass and coal fuel for cooking and heating. This study presents a regional modeling sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact of residential emissions from cooking and heating activities on the burden of disease at a provincial level in China. Model surface PM2.5 fields are shown to compare well when evaluated against surface air quality measurements. Scenarios run without residential sector and residential heating emissions are used in conjunction with the Global Burden of Disease 2013 framework to calculate the proportion of deaths and disability adjusted life years attributable to PM2.5 exposure from residential emissions. Overall, we estimate that 341 000 (306 000-370 000; 95% confidence interval) premature deaths in China are attributable to residential combustion emissions, approximately a third of the deaths attributable to all ambient PM2.5 pollution, with 159 000 (142 000-172 000) and 182 000 (163 000-197 000) premature deaths from heating and cooking emissions, respectively. Our findings emphasize the need to mitigate emissions from both residential heating and cooking sources to reduce the health impacts of ambient air pollution in China.

Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background During the early stages of a new influenza pandemic, travel restriction is an immediate and non-pharmaceutical means of retarding incidence growth. It extends the time frame of effective mitigation, especially when the characteristics of the emerging virus are unknown. In the present study, we used the 2009 influenza A pandemic as a case study to evaluate the impact of regulating air, sea, and land transport. Other government strategies, namely, antivirals and hospitalizations, were also evaluated. Methods Hong Kong arrivals from 44 countries via air, sea, and land transports were imported into a discrete stochastic Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered (SEIR) host-flow model. The model allowed a number of latent and infectious cases to pass the border, which constitutes a source of local disease transmission. We also modeled antiviral and hospitalization prevention strategies to compare the effectiveness of these control measures. Baseline reproduction rate was estimated from routine surveillance data. Results Regarding air travel, the main route connected to the influenza source area should be targeted for travel restrictions; imposing a 99% air travel restriction delayed the epidemic peak by up to two weeks. Once the pandemic was established in China, the strong land connection between Hong Kong and China rendered Hong Kong vulnerable. Antivirals and hospitalization were found to be more effective on attack rate reductions than travel restrictions. Combined strategies (with 99% restriction on all transport modes) deferred the peak for long enough to establish a vaccination program. Conclusion The findings will assist policy-makers with decisions on handling similar future pandemics. We also suggest regulating the extent of restriction and the transport mode, once restriction has been deemed necessary for pandemic control. Although travel restrictions have yet to gain social acceptance, they allow time for mitigation response when a new and

AIR Model Preflight Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, H.; Wilson, J. W.; Maiden, D. L.

2003-01-01

The atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) ER-2 preflight analysis, one of the first attempts to obtain a relatively complete measurement set of the high-altitude radiation level environment, is described in this paper. The primary thrust is to characterize the atmospheric radiation and to define dose levels at high-altitude flight. A secondary thrust is to develop and validate dosimetric techniques and monitoring devices for protecting aircrews. With a few chosen routes, we can measure the experimental results and validate the AIR model predictions. Eventually, as more measurements are made, we gain more understanding about the hazardous radiation environment and acquire more confidence in the prediction models.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements.

PubMed

Vedrenne, Michel; Borge, Rafael; Lumbreras, Julio; Conlan, Beth; Rodríguez, María Encarnación; de Andrés, Juan Manuel; de la Paz, David; Pérez, Javier; Narros, Adolfo

2015-09-15

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

2010-01-01

Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

Air quality impacts of implementing emission reduction strategies at southern California airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benosa, Guillem; Zhu, Shupeng; Kinnon, Michael Mac; Dabdub, Donald

2018-07-01

Reducing aviation emissions will be a major concern in the coming years, as the relative contribution of aviation to overall emissions is projected to increase in the future. The South Coast Air Basin of California (SoCAB) is an extreme nonattainment area with many airports located upwind of the most polluted regions in the basin. Techniques to reduce aviation emissions have been studied in the past, and strategies that can be implemented at airports include taxi-out times reduction, ground support equipment electrification and aviation biofuel implementation. These strategies have been analyzed only at the national scale, their effectiveness to improve air quality within the SoCAB given the local meteorology and chemical regimes is unclear. This work studies how the adoption of the techniques at commercial SoCAB airports affect ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. In addition, potential impacts on public exposure to PM2.5 and O3 resulting from changes in the concentration of these pollutants are estimated. In addition, the work calculates aviation emissions for each scenario and simulate the transport and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The simultaneous application of all reduction strategies is projected to reduce the aviation-attributable population weighted ground-level PM2.5 by 36% in summer and 32% in winter. On the other hand, O3 increases by 16% in winter. Occurring mostly in densely populated areas, the decrease in ground-level PM2.5 would have a positive health impact and help the region achieve attainment of national ambient air quality standards.

Modeling Study on Air Quality Improvement due to Mobile Source Emission control Plan in Seoul Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y. J.; Sunwoo, Y.; Hwang, I.; Song, S.; Sin, J.; Kim, D.

2015-12-01

A very high population and corresponding high number of vehicles in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) are aggravating the air quality of this region. The Korean government continues to make concerted efforts to improve air quality. One of the major policies that the Ministry of Environment of Korea enforced is "The Special Act for Improvement of Air Quality in SMA" and "The 1st Air Quality Management Plan of SMA". Mobile Source emission controls are an important part of the policy. Thus, it is timely to evaluate the air quality improvement due to the controls. Therefore, we performed a quantitative analysis of the difference in air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and December, 2011 was set as the target period to capture the impact of the above control plans. We considered four fuel-type vehicle emission scenarios and compared the air quality improvement differences between them. The scenarios are as follows: no-control, gasoline vehicle control only, diesel vehicle control only, and control of both; utilizing the revised mobile source emissions from the Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS), which is the national emission inventory reflecting current policy.In order to improve the accuracy of the modeling data, we developed new temporal allocation coefficients based on traffic volume observation data and spatially reallocated the mobile source emissions using vehicle flow survey data. Furthermore, we calculated the PM10 and PM2.5 emissions of gasoline vehicles which is omitted in CAPSS.The results of the air quality modeling shows that vehicle control plans for both gasoline and diesel lead to a decrease of 0.65ppb~8.75ppb and 0.02㎍/㎥~7.09㎍/㎥ in NO2 and PM10 monthly average concentrations, respectively. The large percentage decreases mainly appear near the center of the metropolis. However, the largest NO2 decrease percentages are found in the northeast region of Gyeonggi-do, which is the province that surrounds the

Air quality and future energy system planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Dennis; Lupton, Rick

2016-04-01

Ambient air pollution has been linked to an increasing number of premature deaths throughout the world. Projected increases in demand for food, energy resources and manufactured products will likely contribute to exacerbate air pollution with an increasing impact on human health, agricultural productivity and climate change. Current events such as tampering emissions tests by VW car manufacturers, failure to comply with EU Air Quality directives and WHO guidelines by many EU countries, the problem of smog in Chinese cities and new industrial emissions regulations represent unique challenges but also opportunities for regulators, local authorities and industry. However current models and practices of energy and resource use do not consider ambient air impacts as an integral part of the planing process. Furthermore the analysis of drivers, sources and impacts of air pollution is often fragmented, difficult to understand and lacks effective visualization tools that bring all of these components together. This work aims to develop a model that links impacts of air quality on human health and ecosystems to current and future developments in the energy system, industrial and agricultural activity and patterns of land use. The model will be added to the ForeseerTM tool, which is an integrated resource analysis platform that has been developed at the University of Cambridge initially with funding from BP and more recently through the EPSRC funded Whole Systems Energy Modeling (WholeSEM) project. The basis of the tool is a set of linked physical models for energy, water and land, including the technologies that are used to transform these resources into final services such as housing, food, transport and household goods. The new air quality model will explore different feedback effects between energy, land and atmospheric systems with the overarching goal of supporting better communication about the drivers of air quality and to incorporate concerns about air quality into