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Sample records for alcohol marketing predicts

  1. Internet Alcohol Marketing and Underage Alcohol Use

    PubMed Central

    McClure, Auden C.; Tanski, Susanne E.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Internet alcohol marketing is not well studied despite its prevalence and potential accessibility and attractiveness to youth. The objective was to examine longitudinal associations between self-reported engagement with Internet alcohol marketing and alcohol use transitions in youth. METHODS A US sample of 2012 youths aged 15 to 20 was surveyed in 2011. An Internet alcohol marketing receptivity score was developed, based on number of positive responses to seeing alcohol advertising on the Internet, visiting alcohol brand Web sites, being an online alcohol brand fan, and cued recall of alcohol brand home page images. We assessed the association between baseline marketing receptivity and both ever drinking and binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at 1-year follow-up with multiple logistic regression, controlling for baseline drinking status, Internet use, sociodemographics, personality characteristics, and peer or parent drinking. RESULTS At baseline, ever-drinking and binge-drinking prevalence was 55% and 27%, respectively. Many (59%) reported seeing Internet alcohol advertising, but few reported going to an alcohol Web site (6%) or being an online fan (3%). Higher Internet use, sensation seeking, having family or peers who drank, and past alcohol use were associated with Internet alcohol marketing receptivity, and a score of 1 or 2 was independently associated with greater adjusted odds of initiating binge drinking (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–2.78 and odds ratio 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–4.37 respectively) but not with initiation of ever drinking. CONCLUSIONS Although high levels of engagement with Internet alcohol marketing were uncommon, most underage youths reported seeing it, and we found a prospective association between receptivity to this type of alcohol marketing and future problem drinking, making additional research and ongoing surveillance important. PMID:26738886

  2. Predicting Alcohol Treatment Outcome: Using Expectancy to Enhance Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Sandra A.; Berger, Barry

    Research in the field of alcohol abuse evidences a long history of attempts to predict outcome from alcohol treatment programs using situational and intrapsychic factors. To investigate whether alcohol reinforcement expectancies are related to drinking behavior, 42 male veteran graduates of an inpatient alcohol treatment program were interviewed 1…

  3. Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

    PubMed

    Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

    2005-09-01

    The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves. PMID:16167561

  4. MAOA EXPRESSION PREDICTS VULNERABILITY FOR ALCOHOL USE

    PubMed Central

    Cervera-Juanes, Rita; Wilhem, Larry J.; Park, Byung; Lee, Richard; Locke, Jason; Helms, Christa; Gonzales, Steven; Wand, Gary; Jones, Sara R.; Grant, Kathleen A.; Ferguson, Betsy

    2015-01-01

    The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12-months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol-access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naïve subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared to control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios amongst the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse. PMID:26148813

  5. MAOA expression predicts vulnerability for alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Cervera-Juanes, R; Wilhem, L J; Park, B; Lee, R; Locke, J; Helms, C; Gonzales, S; Wand, G; Jones, S R; Grant, K A; Ferguson, B

    2016-04-01

    The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12 months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naive subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared with control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios among the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse. PMID:26148813

  6. Blood alcohol concentrations: factors affecting predictions.

    PubMed

    Winek, C L; Esposito, F M

    1985-01-01

    As a result of extensive alcohol research conducted on both humans and animals, it is possible to predict a BAC, given pertinent data. In addition, it is possible to estimate from a given BAC the quantity of alcohol consumed. Caution must be used in these predictions, for certain factors will affect the final estimation. Absorption of alcohol is influenced by gastrointestinal contents and motility, and also the composition and quantity of the alcoholic beverage. The vascularity of tissues influences the distribution of alcohol, and their water content will determine the amount of alcohol present after equilibrium. Elimination of alcohol begins immediately after absorption. The elimination rate varies for individuals but falls between .015 percent to .020 percent per hour, with an average of .018 percent per hour. In addition to these factors, a BAC will depend on the subject's weight, percentage of alcohol in the beverage, and the rate of drinking. The principal effect of alcohol in the body is on the central nervous system. Its depressant effect consists of impairment to sensory, motor and learned functions. When combined with some other drugs, a more intoxicated state occurs. Although tolerance to alcohol at low blood concentrations is possible, the tolerance most noted is a learned tolerance among chronic drinkers. contamination of antemortem blood samples collected for alcohol analysis is minimal when swabbing with an ethanolic antiseptic is performed with routine clinical technique; sloppy swabbing has been shown to increase the BAC determination significantly. The alcoholic content of blood used for transfusion does not contribute significantly to the BAC of the recipient, since extensive dilution occurs; nor does the alcohol present in injectable medication contribute significantly. Although many factors may alter the concentration of alcohol present in autopsy specimens, postmortem synthesis of alcohol receives the most attention. The microorganisms that

  7. Pattern Prediction in Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaushik, Saroj; Singhal, Naman

    In this paper, we have presented a new approach to predict pattern of the financial time series in stock market for next 10 days and compared it with the existing method of exact value prediction [2, 3, and 4]. The proposed pattern prediction technique performs better than value prediction. It has been shown that the average for pattern prediction is 58.7% while that for value prediction is 51.3%. Similarly, maximum for pattern and value prediction are 100% and 88.9% respectively. It is of more practical significance if one can predict an approximate pattern that can be expected in the financial time series in the near future rather than the exact value. This way one can know the periods when the stock will be at a high or at a low and use the information to buy or sell accordingly. We have used Support Vector Machine based prediction system as a basis for predicting pattern. MATLAB has been used for implementation.

  8. Multinational Alcohol Market Development and Public Health: Diageo in India.

    PubMed

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2015-11-01

    Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India's changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India's alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo's strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India's younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo's responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo's strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets. PMID:26378848

  9. Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Methods Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. Results 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast - an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). Conclusions The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team - England - suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here. PMID:24885718

  10. Alcohol Marketing Receptivity, Marketing-specific Cognitions and Underage Binge Drinking

    PubMed Central

    McClure, Auden C.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Tanski, Susanne E.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Sargent, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Exposure to alcohol marketing is prevalent and is associated with both initiation and progression of alcohol use in underage youth. The mechanism of influence is not well understood, however. This study tests a model that proposes alcohol-specific cognitions as mediators of the relation between alcohol marketing and problematic drinking among experimental underage drinkers. Methods This paper describes a cross-sectional analysis of 1734 U.S. 15–20 year old underage drinkers, recruited for a national study of media and substance use. Subjects were queried about a number of alcohol marketing variables including television time, internet time, favorite alcohol ad, ownership of alcohol branded merchandise (ABM), and exposure to alcohol brands in movies. The relation between these exposures and current (30 day) binge drinking was assessed, as were proposed mediators of this relation, including marketing-specific cognitions (drinker identity and favorite brand to drink), favorable alcohol expectancies and alcohol norms. Paths were tested in a structural equation model that controlled for socio-demographics, personality and peer drinking. Results Almost one-third of this sample of ever drinkers had engaged in 30 day binge drinking. Correlations among mediators were all statistically significant (range 0.16 – 0.47) and all were significantly associated with binge drinking. Statistically significant mediation was found for the association between ABM ownership and binge drinking through both drinker identity and having a favorite brand, which also mediated the path between movie brand exposure and binge drinking. Peer drinking and sensation seeking were associated with binge drinking in paths through all mediators. Conclusions Associations between alcohol marketing and binge drinking were mediated through marketing-specific cognitions that assess drinker identity and brand allegiance, cognitions that marketers aim to cultivate in the consumer. PMID:23256927

  11. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  12. Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.

  13. Prediction of Alcohol Consumption among Fraternity Pledges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Kim Knox; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Investigated relationship between background characteristics of fraternity pledges (N=108) and alcohol consumption during first month of pledgeship. Found heavier alcohol consumption strongly correlated with positive view of its socialization value and with prior incidences of problems associated with alcohol use. Found lesser relationship between…

  14. An experiment on prediction markets in science.

    PubMed

    Almenberg, Johan; Kittlitz, Ken; Pfeiffer, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice. PMID:20041139

  15. An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

    PubMed Central

    Almenberg, Johan; Kittlitz, Ken; Pfeiffer, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice. PMID:20041139

  16. Subjective Responses to Alcohol Prime Event-Specific Alcohol Consumption and Predict Blackouts and Hangover*

    PubMed Central

    Wetherill, Reagan R.; Fromme, Kim

    2009-01-01

    Objective: Individual differences in subjective response to alcohol and the occurrence of blackouts and hangover are associated with the development of alcohol-use disorders. As such, subjective responses to alcohol, blackouts, and hangover may share a biological vulnerability to excessive alcohol consumption. The purpose of the current study was to examine subjective responses to alcohol as predictors of estimated blood alcohol concentration (BAC), blackouts, and hangover for a single heavy drinking event. Method: Data were collected on 150 (50% female) college students at a large, public university who reported consuming alcohol during their 21st birthday celebration. Using semi-structured interviews and self-report measures, subjective responses to alcohol (at midpoint of a 21st birthday celebration) were examined as predictors of final estimated BAC, blackouts, and hangover. Results: Stimulant effects reported for the midpoint of the drinking event predicted final estimated BAC. Both stimulant and sedative alcohol effects directly predicted blackouts during the drinking event and the occurrence of a hangover. Neither stimulant nor sedative effects were mediated by final estimated BAC. Conclusions: Retrospective reports of subjective responses to alcohol were associated with the level of intoxication, blackouts, and hangover during a heavy drinking event. Findings therefore suggest the utility of incorporating subjective responses to alcohol into event-specific interventions that are designed to reduce or prevent heavy episodic drinking. PMID:19515300

  17. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  18. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  19. Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

  20. Alcohol-Outcome Expectancies: Predicting Interest in Violence and Erotica.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, William H.; Marlatt, G. Alan

    Although research has examined the content of alcohol-outcome expectancies and also the role of alcohol use in aggressive and sexual behaviors, few studies have linked the two lines of inquiry. To examine the efficacy of outcome expectancies for predicting actual behavior, 64 male social drinkers, aged 21 to 25 years, completed questionnaires and,…

  1. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  2. Person-Environment Interaction in the Prediction of Alcohol Abuse and Alcohol Dependence in Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Karl G.; Hawkins, J. David; Bailey, Jennifer A.; Catalano, Richard F.; Abbott, Robert D.; Shapiro, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Background Behavioral disinhibition (externalizing/impulsivity) and behavioral inhibition (internalizing/anxiety) may contribute to the development of alcohol abuse and dependence. But tests of person-by-environment interactions in predicting alcohol use disorders are needed. This study examined the extent to which interactions between behavioral disinhibition, behavioral inhibition and family management during adolescence predict alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence at age 27. Methods This study used longitudinal data from a community sample of 808 men and women interviewed from age 10 to 27 in the Seattle Social Development Project. Zero-order correlations followed by a series of nested regressions examined the relationships between individual characteristics (behavioral disinhibition and behavioral inhibition/anxiety) and environment (good versus poor family management practices during adolescence) in predicting alcohol abuse and dependence criterion counts at age 27. Results Behavioral disinhibition and poor family management predicted increased likelihood of both alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence at age 27. Behavioral inhibition/anxiety was unrelated to both outcomes. Youths high in behavioral disinhibition were at increased risk for later alcohol abuse and dependence only in consistently poorly managed family environments. In consistently well-managed families, high levels of behavioral disinhibition did not increase risk for later alcohol abuse or dependence. Conclusions Behavioral disinhibition increases risk for alcohol abuse and dependence in early adulthood only for individuals who experience poor family management during adolescence. Interventions seeking to reduce environmental risks by strengthening consistent positive family management practices may prevent later alcohol abuse and dependence among individuals at risk due to behavioral disinhibition. PMID:20299164

  3. Alcohol Challenge Responses Predict Future Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms: A 6-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    King, Andrea C.; McNamara, Patrick J.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Cao, Dingcai

    2014-01-01

    Background Propensity for alcohol misuse may be linked to an individuals’ response to alcohol. This study examined the role of alcohol response phenotypes to future drinking problems. Methods One hundred four young heavy social drinkers participated in a within-subject, double-blind, placebo-controlled laboratory alcohol challenge study with 6-year follow-up. Participants were examined for subjective responses before and after receiving an intoxicating dose of alcohol (.8 g/kg) or a placebo beverage, given in random order. Follow-up was conducted in 5 waves over 6 years after the sessions to assess drinking behaviors and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. Retention was high with 98% (509 of 520) of possible follow-ups completed. Results Greater sensitivity to alcohol, in terms of stimulation and rewarding effects (like, want more) and lower sensitivity to alcohol sedation predicted greater number of AUD symptoms through 6 years of follow-up. Cluster analyses revealed that for half the sample, increasing levels of stimulation and liking were predictors of more AUD symptoms with the other half divided between those showing like and want more and want more alone as significant predictors. Conclusions The findings extend previous findings and offer new empirical insights into the propensity for excessive drinking and alcohol problems. Heightened alcohol stimulation and reward sensitivity robustly predicted more alcohol use disorder symptoms over time associated with greater binge-drinking frequency. These drinking problems were maintained and progressed as these participants were entering their third decade of life, a developmental interval when continued alcohol misuse becomes more deviant. PMID:24094754

  4. Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

    Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

  5. IDEM: A Prediction Market for Idea Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothos, Efthimios; Apostolou, Dimitris; Mentzas, Gregoris

    Collaborative systems and methods are used within corporate environments to support innovation and management of new ideas. The aggregation of innovation-related information from a community of users is a non-trivial task that requires the use of specialized collaborative systems and methods. In this paper we explore the use of Prediction Markets for community-based idea management and present IDEM, a software system that is used for generating and evaluating new ideas utilizing the concept of Prediction Markets. In addition to trading, IDEM supports users submit new ideas, rate and comment on them. Academic experiments and industrial pilots reveal the perceived usefulness of the system.

  6. PTSD-related alcohol expectancies and impulsivity interact to predict alcohol use severity in a substance dependent sample with PTSD

    PubMed Central

    Schaumberg, Katherine; Vinci, Christine; Raiker, Joseph S.; Mota, Natalie; Jackson, Michelle; Whalen, Diana; Schumacher, Julie A.; Coffey, Scott F.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Problematic alcohol use is highly comorbid with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and prior work has demonstrated that individuals with PTSD may self-medicate with alcohol in an effort to reduce their symptoms. The combination of impulsivity and alcohol-related expectancies influences the development of problematic drinking patterns. When examining individuals diagnosed with PTSD, PTSD-related alcohol expectancies may be particularly relevant to the etiology of problematic drinking. To date, no studies have specifically examined PTSD-specific alcohol expectancies as they relate to alcohol use severity in a clinical sample. Methods The current study examined the relationship between impulsivity, PTSD-related alcohol expectancies, and severity of alcohol use in a sample of 63 individuals diagnosed with comorbid PTSD and substance use disorders who were receiving treatment in a residential substance use treatment program. Results Results indicated that PTSD-related alcohol expectancies moderated the relationship between impulsivity and alcohol use severity. Specifically, at low to moderate levels of positive PTSD-related alcohol expectancies, impulsivity significantly predicted alcohol use severity, while impulsivity had no impact on the prediction of alcohol use severity when such expectancies were high. Additionally, the relationship between impulsivity, expectancies, and alcohol use severity was significant for positive, but not negative, PTSD-related alcohol expectancies. Conclusions Overall, these results suggest that impulsivity and PTSD-related alcohol expectancies interact to predict alcohol use severity in a comorbid PTSD and substance dependent sample. PMID:25299460

  7. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    PubMed

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

  8. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

  9. Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

    PubMed

    Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

    2014-02-01

    Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices. PMID:24284473

  10. Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Nan

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

  11. Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

    PubMed

    Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

    2016-05-01

    To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages. PMID:27128159

  12. Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations.

    PubMed

    Munafo, Marcus R; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

    2015-10-01

    The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014. PMID:26587243

  13. Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Munafo, Marcus R.; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, and enable individuals to trade ‘bets’ on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014. PMID:26587243

  14. Mood and Implicit Alcohol Expectancy Processes: Predicting Alcohol Consumption in the Laboratory

    PubMed Central

    Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.; Curtin, John J.; Merrill, Jennifer E.

    2011-01-01

    Background Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAEs) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli – including mood states – and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, the present study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. Method College students (N=146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. Results The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the lab, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the lab. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak BAC in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the lab for females. Conclusions The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs – as indicated by longer RTs – predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores

  15. Alcohol Prevention on College Campuses: The Moderating Effect of the Alcohol Environment on the Effectiveness of Social Norms Marketing Campaigns*

    PubMed Central

    Scribner, Richard A.; Theall, Katherine P.; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Method: Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N = 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. Results: There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets. PMID:21388596

  16. Predicting Heroin and Alcohol Usage Among Young Puerto Ricans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuttall, Ronald L.; Nuttall, Ena Vazquez

    Using 1968 data collected from junior and senior high school students in Bayamon, Puerto Rico, substance usage patterns for heroin and alcohol were predicted for 1975-6. A sample of 1,000 of the initial 5,000 students were selected for re-interview; half were selected to be at high risk of substance abuse and half were selected randomly. Some 657…

  17. Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowgill, Bo; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    Since 2005, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are not typical of Google’s workforce, and that market participation and success is skewed towards Google’s engineering and quantitatively oriented employees.

  18. Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or

  19. Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

    PubMed

    Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (p<.001). Additionally, listening to energetic music (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. PMID:26400900

  20. When What You See Isn’t What You Get: Alcohol Cues, Alcohol Administration, Prediction Error, and Human Striatal Dopamine

    PubMed Central

    Yoder, Karmen K.; Morris, Evan D.; Constantinescu, Cristian C.; Cheng, Tee-Ean; Normandin, Marc D.; O’Connor, Sean J.; Kareken, David A.

    2010-01-01

    Background The mesolimbic dopamine (DA) system is implicated in the development and maintenance of alcohol drinking; however, the exact mechanisms by which DA regulates human alcohol consumption are unclear. This study assessed the distinct effects of alcohol-related cues and alcohol administration on striatal DA release in healthy humans. Methods Subjects underwent 3 PET scans with [11C]raclopride (RAC). Subjects were informed that they would receive either an IV Ringer’s lactate infusion or an alcohol (EtOH) infusion during scanning, with naturalistic visual and olfactory cues indicating which infusion would occur. Scans were acquired in the following sequence: (1) Baseline Scan: Neutral cues predicting a Ringer’s lactate infusion, (2) CUES Scan: Alcohol-related cues predicting alcohol infusion in a Ringer’s lactate solution, but with alcohol infusion after scanning to isolate the effects of cues, and (3) EtOH Scan: Neutral cues predicting Ringer’s, but with alcohol infusion during scanning (to isolate the effects of alcohol without confounding expectation or craving). Results Relative to baseline, striatal DA concentration decreased during CUES, but increased during EtOH. Conclusion While the results appear inconsistent with some animal experiments showing dopaminergic responses to alcohol’s conditioned cues, they can be understood in the context of the hypothesized role of the striatum in reward prediction error, and of animal studies showing that midbrain dopamine neurons decrease and increase firing rates during negative and positive prediction errors, respectively. We believe that our data are the first in humans to demonstrate such changes in striatal DA during reward prediction error. PMID:18976347

  1. Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    PubMed

    McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

    2008-09-01

    Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption. PMID:18619720

  2. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television--25 markets, United States, 2010.

    PubMed

    2013-11-01

    Excessive alcohol consumption accounted for an estimated 4,700 deaths and 280,000 years of potential life lost among youths aged <21 years each year during 2001-2005. Exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood to varying degrees that youths will initiate drinking and drink at higher levels. By 2003, the alcohol industry voluntarily agreed not to advertise on television programs where >30% of the audience is reasonably expected to be aged <21 years. However, the National Research Council/Institute of Medicine (NRC/IOM) proposed in 2003 that "the industry standard should move toward a 15% threshold for television advertising". Because local media markets might have different age distributions, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, evaluated the proportion of advertisements that appeared on television programs in 25 local television markets* and resulting youth exposure that exceeded the industry standard (i.e., >30% aged 2-20 years) or the proposed NRC/IOM standard (i.e., >15% aged 12-20 years). Among national television programs with alcohol advertising, placements were assessed for the 10 programs with the largest number of youth viewers within each of four program categories: network sports, network nonsports, cable sports, and cable nonsports (40 total). Of the 196,494 alcohol advertisements that aired on television programs with the largest number of youth viewers in these local markets, placement of 23.7% exceeded the industry threshold and 35.4% exceeded the NRC/IOM threshold. These results indicate that the alcohol industry's self-regulation of its advertising could be improved, and youth exposure to alcohol advertising could be further reduced by adopting and complying with the NRC/IOM standard. In addition, continued public health surveillance would allow for sustained assessment of youth exposure to alcohol advertising and inform future interventions. PMID:24196664

  3. How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

  4. Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

    2012-01-01

    Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

  5. Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

    PubMed

    Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

    2000-12-01

    This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring. PMID:11218354

  6. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  7. Ecological Relevance of Memory Tests and the Prediction of Relapse in Alcoholics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sussman, Steve; And Others

    Recent research suggests that alcoholic inpatients' performance on neuropsychological tests is predictive of their drinking status following discharge from alcohol rehabilitation programs, although no single test itself has been predictive of relapse. This study seeks to develop a ecologically relevant memory test that would predict relapse and…

  8. Predicting repeat DUI offenses with the alcohol interlock recorder.

    PubMed

    Marques, P R; Tippetts, A S; Voas, R B; Beirness, D J

    2001-09-01

    The aim of this report has been to use information contained in the alcohol ignition interlock recorder to determine whether systematic analysis of it can be used to predict which DUI offenders will recidivate during the first 2 years after the interlock is removed. The interlock record was accumulated during a 4-year intervention study in Alberta, Canada. Data from more than 5.5 million breath tests collected during interlock use were analyzed retrospectively after allowing repeat DUI offenses to accumulate for up to 2 years post-interlock. The rate of interlock warns at low BAC (0.02-0.04%) and fails at higher BAC ( > 0.04%) were found to be predictive of later repeat DUI. The interlock record was used along with selected driver record variables and questionnaire data to identify predictor sets. CHAID segmentation analysis was used to identify combinations of predictor variables; these were joined with sensitivity analysis to compare different predictor combinations. Several variables, but primarily more prior DUIs and more interlock warns and fails logged during the first 5 months of interlock usage predict greater than 60% of repeat DUI with a false positive rate of less than 10%. PMID:11491241

  9. Predicting women's alcohol risk-taking while abroad.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah

    2010-05-01

    Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary. PMID:20512745

  10. Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling. PMID:24632944

  11. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling. PMID:24632944

  12. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... How Can I Help a Friend Who Cuts? Alcohol KidsHealth > For Teens > Alcohol Print A A A ... you can make an educated choice. What Is Alcohol? Alcohol is created when grains, fruits, or vegetables ...

  13. Alcohol Use Biomarkers Predicting Cognitive Performance: A Secondary Analysis in Veterans With Alcohol Dependence and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Kalapatapu, Raj K.; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Lasher, Brooke A.; Vinogradov, Sophia; Batki, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    Objective We conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data from a recently completed pharmacological pilot clinical trial among 30 veterans with alcohol dependence and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This trial included baseline measures of alcohol use biomarkers, both indirect (carbohydrate-deficient transferrin, GGT [γ-glutamyltransferase], mean corpuscular volume, AST [aspartate aminotransferase], alanine aminotransferase) and direct (ethyl glucuronide, ethyl sulfate), as well as neurocognitive measures (Trail Making Test parts A and B, Hopkins Verbal Learning Test—Revised, Balloon Analogue Risk Task, Delay Discounting Task). Methods Two regression models were estimated and tested for each neurocognitive measure (dependent measure). The first model included the alcohol use biomarker alone as the predictor. The second model included the alcohol use biomarker along with the following 3 additional predictors: Beck Depression Inventory, Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale, and receiving medications. Results In both models, the indirect biomarkers, such as GGT and AST, significantly predicted performance on the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test—Revised %Retention. GGT alone significantly predicted performance on the Trail Making Test part A. Conclusions Indirect alcohol use biomarkers may have a specific role in identifying those veterans with alcohol dependence and PTSD who have impaired cognitive performance. However, direct alcohol use biomarkers may not share such a role. PMID:24005546

  14. Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

    PubMed

    Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:21647354

  15. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  16. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  17. Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

    2005-09-01

    The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking. PMID:16167558

  18. One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

    2015-01-01

    Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

  19. Predicting early initiation of alcohol use: a prospective study of Australian children.

    PubMed

    Scholes-Balog, Kirsty Elizabeth; Hemphill, Sheryl; Reid, Sophie; Patton, George; Toumbourou, John

    2013-03-01

    This study explores the social, contextual and individual factors that predict early initiation of alcohol use. A state-wide representative sample of 927 fifth-grade students, in Victoria, Australia were surveyed. Students were resurveyed in the sixth and seventh grade. Risk and protective factors were measured with a modified version of the Communities That Care youth survey. Alcohol use was measured to assess transition from alcohol nonuse to use. Social contexts perceived to provide easier access to alcohol and drugs were found to be the clearest predictors of early onset alcohol use. The limitations and implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:23390887

  20. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

    PubMed

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-12-15

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  1. Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

    PubMed Central

    Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

  2. Social Marketing Strategies for Campus Prevention of Alcohol and Other Drug Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Robert

    This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…

  3. Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Symptoms Predict Alcohol Expectancy Development

    PubMed Central

    Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Brammer, Whitney A.; Ray, Lara A.; Lee, Steve S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Positive alcohol expectancies and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are independent risk factors for adolescent alcohol problems and substance use disorders. However, the association of early ADHD diagnostic status, as well as its separate dimensions of inattention and hyperactivity, with alcohol expectancies is essentially unknown. Method At baseline (i.e., Wave 1), parents of 139 6-to 9-year-old children (71% male) with (N = 77; 55%) and without (N = 62; 45%) ADHD completed structured diagnostic interviews of child psychopathology. Approximately two years later (i.e., Wave 2), children completed a Memory Model-Based Expectancy Questionnaire (MMBEQ) to ascertain their positive and negative expectancies regarding alcohol use. All children were alcohol naïve at both baseline and follow-up assessments. Results Controlling for age, sex, IQ, as well as the number of Wave 1 oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) symptoms, the number of baseline hyperactivity symptoms prospectively predicted more positive arousing (i.e., MMBEQ “wild and crazy” subscale) alcohol expectancies at Wave 2. No predictive association was observed for the number of Wave 1 inattention symptoms and alcohol expectancies. Conclusions Childhood hyperactivity prospectively and positively predicted expectancies regarding the arousing properties of alcohol, independent of inattention and ODD/CD symptoms, as well as other key covariates. Even in the absence of explicit alcohol engagement, youths with elevated hyperactivity may benefit from targeted intervention given its association with more positive arousing alcohol expectancies. PMID:27110089

  4. Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-07-01

    We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

  5. Predicting an Alcohol Use Disorder in Urban American Indian Youths

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Linda R.; Miller, Kimberly A.; Beauvais, Fred; Walker, Patricia Silk; Walker, R. Dale

    2014-01-01

    This study examines predictors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) among an urban American Indian cohort who were followed from approximately age 11 to age 20. Approximately 27% of the sample had a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol abuse or dependence. The results indicated that externalizing, but not internalizing, behaviors, family conflict, and school…

  6. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... Text Size: A A A Listen En Español Alcohol Wondering if alcohol is off limits with diabetes? Most people with diabetes can have a moderate amount of alcohol. Research has shown that there can be some ...

  7. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    If you are like many Americans, you drink alcohol at least occasionally. For many people, moderate drinking ... risky. Heavy drinking can lead to alcoholism and alcohol abuse, as well as injuries, liver disease, heart ...

  8. Mutual support groups to reduce alcohol consumption by pregnant women: marketing implications.

    PubMed

    Coleman, M A; Coleman, N C; Murray, J P

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on a study of social support and alcohol consumption of 153 women during pregnancy. The majority of women changed their alcohol intake patterns during pregnancy because of concern for the health of the fetus. Most women decreased the amount and frequency of drinking and changed their beverage of choice. Social support was found to be significantly related to reduction in alcohol use during pregnancy. Social support came from relationships with specific individuals and groups of individuals. Health care providers may be able to extend the range of their work by designing specific prevention strategies targeted toward the development and implementation of mutual support groups for pregnant women. The marketing discipline has identified certain characteristics of the mutual benefit association, an organization which exists exclusively for the benefit of its members. The authors propose that the mutual support group, often used to promote health-related behaviors, is a special case of the mutual benefit association; further, that appropriate application of established marketing principles and practices will be effective in promulgating the mutual support group. The authors offer a marketing strategy for the mutual support of pregnant women, a strategy which should be effective in further reducing the alcohol intake of pregnant women. PMID:10105907

  9. Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2015-12-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. PMID:25936585

  10. Parental Alcohol History Differentially Predicts Offspring Disorders in Distinct Subgroups in Israel

    PubMed Central

    Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Elliott, Jennifer C; Thompson, Ronald G; Aharonovich, Efrat; Spivak, Baruch; Weizman, Abraham; Frisch, Amos; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The association between alcoholism in parents and related disorders in their offspring is well established in cultures with intermediate/high alcohol consumption, but not in those with low consumption, such as Israel. This study investigated differences in parental transmission of alcohol problems and related psychopathology between immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Israel and other Israelis—two Israeli subgroups with differing alcohol consumption behaviors and social norms. Method: A total of 1,347 adults from a household sample were interviewed. Regression analyses were used to examine associations between parental alcohol problems and participant disorders: alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis use disorders (AUD, NUD, CUD); antisocial personality disorder (ASPD); major depressive disorder (MDD); and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We also examined the associations of parental alcohol problems with participant disorders characterized with two latent factors: externalizing (EXT: AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD) and internalizing (INT: MDD, PTSD). Differential parental transmission of alcohol problems in FSU (n = 315) and non-FSU (n = 1,032) Israelis was examined with statistical interaction. Results: Among emigrants from the FSU, parental alcohol problems predicted AUD, NUD, CUD, ASPD, PTSD, EXT, and INT (mean ratios = 1.38–4.83). In non-FSU Israelis, parental alcohol problems predicted only ASPD and PTSD (mean ratios = 1.08–4.09). Significant interactions were observed for AUD, CUD, PTSD, and EXT; each relationship was stronger in FSU Israelis and null (AUD, CUD, EXT) or less robust (PTSD) in other Israelis. Conclusions: Parental alcohol problems were related to substance use and psychiatric disorders differently in FSU and other Israelis, two groups with different alcohol consumption levels and drinking norms. We propose that, in social contexts that vary in the degree to which they constrain alcohol behavior, underlying genetic

  11. Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

    PubMed Central

    Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

  12. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Alcohol KidsHealth > For Kids > Alcohol Print A A A Text Size What's in ... What Is Alcoholism? Say No en español El alcohol Getting the Right Message "Hey, who wants a ...

  13. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    PubMed

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235

  14. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models

    PubMed Central

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235

  15. PREDICTING PATTERNS OF ADOLESCENT ALCOHOL USE: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Because most studies of adolescent alcohol use have focused primarily on the frequency and quantity of consumption, we know little about how adolescent drinking patterns change during the high school years. The purpose of this article is to provide such data, as well as to identify some of the indiv...

  16. Alcohol

    MedlinePlus

    ... as well as injuries, liver disease, heart disease, cancer, and other health problems. It can also cause problems at home, at work, and with friends. NIH: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism

  17. Alcoholism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caliguri, Joseph P., Ed.

    This extensive annotated bibliography provides a compilation of documents retreived from a computerized search of the ERIC, Social Science Citation Index, and Med-Line databases on the topic of alcoholism. The materials address the following areas of concern: (1) attitudes toward alcohol users and abusers; (2) characteristics of alcoholics and…

  18. Tests of executive functioning predict scores on the MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale.

    PubMed

    Deckel, A W

    1999-02-01

    1. Previous work reported that tests of executive functioning (EF) predict the risk of alcoholism in subject populations selected for a "high density" of a family history of alcoholism and/or the presence of sociopathic traits. The current experiment examined the ability of EF tests to predict the risk of alcoholism, as measured by the MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale (MAC), in outpatient subjects referred to a general neuropsychological testing service. 2. Sixty-eight male and female subjects referred for neuropsychological testing were assessed for their past drinking histories and administered the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised, the Trails (Part B) Test, and the MAC. Principal Components analysis (PCA) reduced the number of EF tests to two measures, including one that loaded on the WCST, and one that loaded on the Similarities, Picture Arrangement, and Trails tests. Multiple hierarchical regression first removed the variance from demographic variables, alcohol consumption, and verbal (i.e., Vocabulary) and non-verbal (i.e., Block Design) IQ, and then entered the executive functioning factors into the prediction of the MAC. 3. Seventy-six percent of the subjects were classified as either light, infrequent, or non-drinkers on the Quantity-Frequency-Variability scale. The factor derived from the WCST on PCA significantly added to the prediction of risk on the MAC (p = .0063), as did scores on Block Design (p = .033). Relatively more impaired scores on the WCST factor and Block Design were predictive of higher scores on the MAC. The other factors were not associated with MAC scores. 4. These results support the hypothesis that decrements in EF are associated with risk factors for alcoholism, even in populations where the density of alcoholic behaviors are not unusually high. When taken in conjunction with other findings, these results implicate EF test scores, and prefrontal brain functioning, in the neurobiology of the risk for

  19. General and Religious Coping Predict Drinking Outcomes for Alcohol Dependent Adults in Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Rosemarie A.; Ellingsen, Victor J.; Tzilos, Golfo K.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Religiosity is associated with improved treatment outcomes among adults with alcohol dependence; however, it is unknown whether religious coping predicts drinking outcomes above and beyond the effects of coping in general, and whether gender differences exist. Methods We assessed 116 alcohol-dependent adults (53% women; mean age = 37, SD = 8.6) for use of religious coping, general coping and alcohol use within two weeks of entering outpatient treatment, and again 6 months after treatment. Results Religious coping at 6 months predicted fewer heavy alcohol use days and fewer drinks per day. This relationship was no longer significant after controlling for general coping at 6 months. Conclusion The relationship between the use of religious coping strategies and drinking outcomes is not independent of general coping. Coping skills training that includes religious coping skills, as one of several coping methods, may be useful for a subset of adults early in recovery. PMID:25662479

  20. Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

    PubMed

    Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs. PMID:26087814

  1. Target marketing of tobacco and alcohol-related products to ethnic minority groups in the United States.

    PubMed

    Moore, D J; Williams, J D; Qualls, W J

    1996-01-01

    This paper examines whether increased consumption of tobacco and alcohol products by minority groups is a function of the target marketing campaigns directed at these groups by marketers, and whether such contributes to the perpetuation of racism. First, a description of the tobacco and alcohol consumption rates of blacks and Hispanics compared to whites is presented, including a comparative analysis of the health effects and mortality rates resulting from the consumption of tobacco and alcohol. Second, the paper examines specific marketing strategies of targeting tobacco and alcohol products to ethnic minority consumers. This is followed by a discussion of whether these practices are a deliberate strategy driven by racism or just the pursuit of profit. A framework for answering the question is provided. Finally, the paper assesses the prospects for change in the future, and analyzes specific needs for future research. PMID:8882838

  2. [Prediction of histological liver damage in asymptomatic alcoholic patients by means of clinical and laboratory data].

    PubMed

    Iturriaga, H; Hirsch, S; Bunout, D; Díaz, M; Kelly, M; Silva, G; de la Maza, M P; Petermann, M; Ugarte, G

    1993-04-01

    Looking for a noninvasive method to predict liver histologic alterations in alcoholic patients without clinical signs of liver failure, we studied 187 chronic alcoholics recently abstinent, divided in 2 series. In the model series (n = 94) several clinical variables and results of common laboratory tests were confronted to the findings of liver biopsies. These were classified in 3 groups: 1. Normal liver; 2. Moderate alterations; 3. Marked alterations, including alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Multivariate methods used were logistic regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART). Both methods entered gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), weight and age as significant and independent variables. Univariate analysis with GGT and AST at different cutoffs were also performed. To predict the presence of any kind of damage (Groups 2 and 3), CART and AST > 30 IU showed the higher sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction, both in the model and validation series. For prediction of marked liver damage, a score based on logistic regression and GGT > 110 IU had the higher efficiencies. It is concluded that GGT and AST are good markers of alcoholic liver damage and that, using sample cutoffs, histologic diagnosis can be correctly predicted in 80% of recently abstinent asymptomatic alcoholics. PMID:7903815

  3. Interactions between self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies and cognitive functioning in the prediction of alcohol use and associated problems: a further examination.

    PubMed

    Littlefield, Andrew K; Vergés, Alvaro; McCarthy, Denis M; Sher, Kenneth J

    2011-09-01

    A recent debate regarding the theoretical distinction between explicit and implicit cognitive processes relevant to alcohol-related behaviors was strongly shaped by empirical findings from dual-process models (Moss & Albery, 2009; Wiers & Stacy, 2010; Moss & Albery, 2010). Specifically, as part of a broader discussion, Wiers & Stacy (2010) contended that alcohol-related behaviors are better predicted by self-reported alcohol expectancies for individuals with good executive control and verbal abilities relative to those without such abilities. The purpose of the current paper is to further test whether self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies are moderated by measures of cognitive functioning. Using multiple indices of alcohol use, alcohol-related consequences, self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies, and cognitive functioning, both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted in a prospective sample of 489 individuals at varying risk for alcohol use disorders. Results from a series of regression analyses testing interactions between self-reported alcohol expectancies and cognitive functioning showed minimal support for the hypothesized pattern discussed by Wiers and Stacy, 2010 regarding self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies. The overall rates of significance were consistent with Type I error rates and a substantial proportion of the significant interactions were inconsistent with previous findings. Thus, the conclusion that cognitive measures consistently moderate the relation between self-reported alcohol expectancies and alcohol use and outcomes should be tempered. PMID:21443299

  4. Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

    PubMed

    Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

    2016-01-01

    High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26389625

  5. A social marketing approach to involving Afghans in community-level alcohol problem prevention.

    PubMed

    Cherry, L; Redmond, S P

    1994-06-01

    A program for preventing alcohol-related problems at the community level using environmentally-focused, public health approaches sought to involve a new segment of the community. That segment consisted of recently-immigrated Afghans from a traditionally abstinent culture. Social marketing research was employed to elicit value-based benefits to be used in promoting the product (involvement with environmental change efforts) to the target audience. While the channels of distribution for promotional messages were easily identified, special attention was required relative to effective spokespersons. Much was also learned about the immigration experience of Afghans in a San Francisco Bay Area community that has significance for other fields. PMID:24258928

  6. Predicting Head Start parent involvement in an alcohol and other drug prevention program.

    PubMed

    Hahn, E J

    1995-01-01

    This study examined Health Belief Model predictors of parent involvement with preschool children in an alcohol and other drug (AOD) prevention program. Over 300 Head Start parents were invited to participate in BABES (Beginning Alcohol and Addictions Basic Education Studies) with their children once a week for 7 weeks. Two hundred parents completed self-report instruments prior to participation in BABES. Previous classroom involvement, barriers, county, and race predicted high attendance (3 to 7 lessons). AOD use severity, benefits, and role modeling predicted low attendance (1 to 2 lessons). Further research involving manipulation of external cues, parent involvement in nonclassroom settings, and race-homogeneous samples is recommended. PMID:7862545

  7. Does adolescent alcohol and marijuana use predict suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among male juvenile offenders?

    PubMed Central

    Chassin, Laurie; Dmitrieva, Julia; Modecki, Kathryn; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Piquero, Alex R.; Knight, George P.; Losoya, Sandra H.

    2009-01-01

    Multiple theories suggest mechanisms by which the use of alcohol and drugs during adolescence could dampen growth in psychosocial maturity. However, scant empirical evidence exists to support this proposition. The current study tested whether alcohol and marijuana use predicted suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among a sample of male serious juvenile offenders (n = 1,170) who were followed from ages 15 to 21. Alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predicted lower maturity six months later. Moreover, boys with the greatest increases in marijuana use showed the smallest increases in psychosocial maturity. Finally, heterogeneity in the form of age-related alcohol and marijuana trajectories was related to growth in maturity, such that only boys who decreased their alcohol and marijuana use significantly increased in psychosocial maturity. Taken together, these findings suggest that patterns of elevated alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence may suppress age-typical growth in psychosocial maturity from adolescence to young adulthood, but that effects are not necessarily permanent, because decreasing use is associated with increases in maturity. PMID:20307112

  8. Does adolescent alcohol and marijuana use predict suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among male juvenile offenders?

    PubMed

    Chassin, Laurie; Dmitrieva, Julia; Modecki, Kathryn; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Piquero, Alex R; Knight, George P; Losoya, Sandra H

    2010-03-01

    Multiple theories suggest mechanisms by which the use of alcohol and drugs during adolescence could dampen growth in psychosocial maturity. However, scant empirical evidence exists to support this proposition. The current study tested whether alcohol and marijuana use predicted suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among a sample of male serious juvenile offenders (n = 1,170) who were followed from ages 15 to 21 years. Alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predicted lower maturity 6 months later. Moreover, boys with the greatest increases in marijuana use showed the smallest increases in psychosocial maturity. Finally, heterogeneity in the form of age-related alcohol and marijuana trajectories was related to growth in maturity, such that only boys who decreased their alcohol and marijuana use significantly increased in psychosocial maturity. Taken together, these findings suggest that patterns of elevated alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence may suppress age-typical growth in psychosocial maturity from adolescence to young adulthood, but that effects are not necessarily permanent, because decreasing use is associated with increases in maturity. PMID:20307112

  9. Polygenic Scores Predict Alcohol Problems in an Independent Sample and Show Moderation by the Environment

    PubMed Central

    Salvatore, Jessica E.; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C.; Evans, David M.; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M.

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems—derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)—predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07–0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes. PMID:24727307

  10. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  11. Predicting Perceptions of Date Rape Based on Individual Beliefs and Female Alcohol Consumption.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osman, Suzanne L.; Davis, Clive M.

    1999-01-01

    Investigates whether female alcohol consumption predicts perceptions of date rape based on two personality measures administered to 290 undergraduates. Results indicate that a stronger belief in token resistance to sex was related to weaker perceptions of rape. As hypothesized, participants scoring higher on sex-role stereotyping perceived fewer…

  12. Alcohol.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schibeci, Renato

    1996-01-01

    Describes the manufacturing of ethanol, the effects of ethanol on the body, the composition of alcoholic drinks, and some properties of ethanol. Presents some classroom experiments using ethanol. (JRH)

  13. Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

  14. Market forces predict grooming reciprocity in female baboons

    PubMed Central

    Barrett, L.; Henzi, S. P.; Weingrill, T.; Lycett, J. E.; Hill, R. A.

    1999-01-01

    We argue that grooming is a commodity that female primates can trade, either for itself or in exchange for other services (sensu biological markets theory) and that the decision to do either will depend on the degree of competition within a social group. We test this using data from four chacma baboon troops, living in two populations that differ markedly in the degree of contest competition. As predicted by the predominance of grooming dyads in which females are closely ranked there was, in all four troops, a positive correlation between the time invested by one partner and that by the other. In addition, as predicted, the allocation of time was more closely matched in troops where grooming could not be exchanged for anything else. In troops where resource competition was high, we found in one of two troops a positive relationship between rank distance and the discrepancy in time allocation, with the lower ranking of the partners contributing more grooming.

  15. Investigations on the predictability of the formation of glassy solid solutions of drugs in sugar alcohols.

    PubMed

    Langer, M; Höltje, M; Urbanetz, N A; Brandt, B; Höltje, H-D; Lippold, B C

    2003-02-18

    A prerequisite for the formation of glassy solid solutions prepared by the melting method is the miscibility of the respective drug and the carrier in the molten state. As could be shown experimentally, all investigated drug/sugar alcohol combinations miscible in the molten state form to some extent glassy solid solutions, dependent on their tendency to recrystallize during preparation. Therefore, the present study focuses on the evaluation of factors that govern the miscibility of molten drugs and sugar alcohols as carriers. In this context, solubility parameters are discussed as a means of predicting miscibility in comparison to a new approach, using calculated interaction parameters derived from molecular dynamics (MD) studies. There is evidence that a Coulomb interaction term C(SR), comprising short-range electrostatic interactions and hydrogen bonding energy is essential for the miscibility of drug and carrier in the molten state. To relate C(SR) to the molecular volume, a non-dimensional parameter P(i) is defined. For this parameter, a limiting value for miscibility exists. Contrary, calculated solubility parameter differences between drug and sugar alcohol in the range of 8-15 MPa(1/2) are not suitable for a prediction of miscibility or immiscibility, since the mixtures deviate from regular solution behavior. In irregular mixtures of drugs and sugar alcohols, an excess entropy and the formation of hydrogen bonds between unlike molecules favor miscibility, that cannot be predicted by regular solution theory. PMID:12550792

  16. The Predicted Impact of Reducing the Nicotine Content in Cigarettes on Alcohol Use

    PubMed Central

    Donny, Eric C.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Product standards reducing the level of nicotine in cigarettes could significantly improve public health by reducing smoking behavior and toxicant exposure. However, relatively little is known about how the regulatory strategy could impact alcohol use, a closely related health behavior that is also a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. The primary objective of this paper is to predict the effect of nicotine reduction on alcohol use, identify priorities for future research, and highlight areas for mitigating any adverse outcomes. Methods: We critically reviewed and integrated literatures examining the effects of very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes on smoking-related outcomes (nicotine exposure, nicotine withdrawal, and smoking as a cue to drink) and, in turn, the effects of those outcomes on alcohol use. Results: Current evidence suggests reducing the nicotine content of cigarettes may benefit public health by reducing alcohol use and problematic drinking over time as a consequence of reduced exposure to nicotine and the smoking cues associated with drinking. Nicotine withdrawal could increase risk of drinking, although these effects should be short-lived and could be mitigated by other sources of nicotine. Gender, hazardous drinking, and psychiatric comorbidities are likely to be important moderators of the effects of VLNC cigarettes. Conclusions: It is imperative to broadly assess the public health impact of potential tobacco product regulations by including measures of closely related health behaviors that could be impacted by these interventions. Nicotine reduction in cigarettes may contribute to improved public health through reductions in alcohol use.

  17. Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

    PubMed

    Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

    2006-11-01

    Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities. PMID:16893506

  18. A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

  19. Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

    2011-01-01

    Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual representations…

  20. Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? - Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Xiong, Wei; Li, Xinjie

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the predictive ability of the singular value decomposition entropy for the Shenzhen Component Index based on different scales. It is found that, the predictive ability of the entropy for the index is affected by the width of moving time windows and the structural break in stock market. By moving time windows with one year, the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy of Shenzhen stock market for its component index is found after the reform of non-tradable shares.

  1. The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

    2009-01-01

    Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising

  2. Joe Camel in a bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff brand, and the transformation of the youth alcohol market.

    PubMed

    Mosher, James F

    2012-01-01

    I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health. PMID:22095339

  3. Joe Camel in a Bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff Brand, and the Transformation of the Youth Alcohol Market

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health. PMID:22095339

  4. Predicting Post-Treatment-Initiation Alcohol Use among Patients with Severe Mental Illness and Alcohol Use Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradizza, Clara M.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Vincent, Paula C.; Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Connors, Gerard J.; Mercer, Nicole D.

    2009-01-01

    Few investigators studying alcohol abuse among individuals with a severe mental illness (SMI) have examined predictors of posttreatment alcohol outcomes. In the present study, a multivariate approach based on a theoretical model was used to study the relationship between psychosocial factors and post-treatment-initiation alcohol use. Predictors of…

  5. Longitudinal Associations of Alcohol Involvement with Subjective Well-Being in Adolescence and Prediction to Alcohol Problems in Early Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, W. Alex; Spoth, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Adolescent alcohol involvement is associated with numerous negative outcomes, but also appears to have positive correlates, including subjective well-being. Additional research is needed to understand these paradoxical findings. The current study examines alcohol use, adverse alcohol-related (and other substance-related) consequences, and…

  6. The Role of Peers and Parents in Predicting Alcohol Consumption among Chilean Youth.

    PubMed

    Han, Yoonsun; Grogan-Kaylor, Andrew; Delva, Jorge; Castillo, Marcela

    2012-01-01

    This study estimated marginal associations of parent- and peer-related measures to examine the different patterns of lifetime ever-use and frequency of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Santiago, Chile (N=918). Probit and negative binomial models were applied to predict the probability of ever-use and the average number of drinks consumed in the past 30 days. Results supported the profound role of peer-relationships in the development of youth drinking behavior. Particularly, peer pressure seemed more important in predicting alcohol ever-use than the frequency of drinking. Simultaneously, parents, especially fathers, played a crucial protective role. Policies aimed at preventing various drinking patterns may be more effective if they not only focus on the targeted adolescents, but also reach out to peers and parents. PMID:24489979

  7. Implicit prejudice toward injecting drug users predicts intentions to change jobs among drug and alcohol nurses.

    PubMed

    von Hippel, William; Brener, Loren; von Hippel, Courtney

    2008-01-01

    The meaning and importance of implicit prejudice is a source of considerable debate. One way to advance this debate is to assess whether implicit prejudice can predict independent variance, beyond that predicted by explicit prejudice, in meaningful and unambiguous behaviors or behavioral intentions. In the current research, drug and alcohol nurses reported their level of stress working with injecting drug users, their job satisfaction, their explicit prejudice toward injecting drug users, and their intentions to leave drug and alcohol nursing. The nurses also completed the Single Category Implicit Association Test, which measured their implicit prejudice toward injecting drug users. Analyses revealed that implicit prejudice was a significant mediator, beyond explicit prejudice and job satisfaction, of the relation between job stress and intention to change jobs. PMID:18181783

  8. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending

    PubMed Central

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-01-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample’s own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience’s potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior. PMID:26187248

  9. Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

  10. Estimating fatty alcohol contributions to the environment from laundry and personal care products using a market forensics approach.

    PubMed

    Mudge, Stephen M; DeLeo, Paul C

    2014-01-01

    Fatty alcohol-based surfactants are widely used in detergents and personal care products; they are typically disposed of down-the-drain and are degraded or removed during wastewater treatment. Analytical data had shown concentration and profile differences between regions of the United States. Market sales data were purchased relevant to the sampling dates. In combination with analysis of the fatty alcohol profiles in the top selling products, the influent profiles were reconstructed and compared to the whole U.S. sales data. The per capita usage rate for fatty alcohols through these 4000+ top selling products was 4.9 g per day, with 88% arising from liquid laundry detergents and hand dish detergents. This extrapolates to a national usage of 185,000 tonnes per year. There were significant differences in the purchasing habits of the inhabitants across the four regions sampled, although this had minimal impact on the fatty alcohol profile which was dominated by the C12 moiety. The U.S. market was also dominated by petrochemically-sourced chemicals. This market forensics approach using purchased sales data was able to extend our knowledge of the fate of these chemicals without a major (expensive) sampling and analytical campaign. PMID:24220601

  11. The drunk utilitarian: blood alcohol concentration predicts utilitarian responses in moral dilemmas.

    PubMed

    Duke, Aaron A; Bègue, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    The hypothetical moral dilemma known as the trolley problem has become a methodological cornerstone in the psychological study of moral reasoning and yet, there remains considerable debate as to the meaning of utilitarian responding in these scenarios. It is unclear whether utilitarian responding results primarily from increased deliberative reasoning capacity or from decreased aversion to harming others. In order to clarify this question, we conducted two field studies to examine the effects of alcohol intoxication on utilitarian responding. Alcohol holds promise in clarifying the above debate because it impairs both social cognition (i.e., empathy) and higher-order executive functioning. Hence, the direction of the association between alcohol and utilitarian vs. non-utilitarian responding should inform the relative importance of both deliberative and social processing systems in influencing utilitarian preference. In two field studies with a combined sample of 103 men and women recruited at two bars in Grenoble, France, participants were presented with a moral dilemma assessing their willingness to sacrifice one life to save five others. Participants' blood alcohol concentrations were found to positively correlate with utilitarian preferences (r=.31, p<.001) suggesting a stronger role for impaired social cognition than intact deliberative reasoning in predicting utilitarian responses in the trolley dilemma. Implications for Greene's dual-process model of moral reasoning are discussed. PMID:25460385

  12. Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

    2011-10-01

    The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed. PMID:22054026

  13. Neural activation during processing of aversive faces predicts treatment outcome in alcoholism.

    PubMed

    Charlet, Katrin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Richter, Anne; Naundorf, Karina; Dornhof, Lina; Weinfurtner, Christopher E J; König, Friederike; Walaszek, Bernadeta; Schubert, Florian; Müller, Christian A; Gutwinski, Stefan; Seissinger, Annette; Schmitz, Lioba; Walter, Henrik; Beck, Anne; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Neuropsychological studies reported decoding deficits of emotional facial expressions in alcohol-dependent patients, and imaging studies revealed reduced prefrontal and limbic activation during emotional face processing. However, it remains unclear whether this reduced neural activation is mediated by alcohol-associated volume reductions and whether it interacts with treatment outcome. We combined analyses of neural activation during an aversive face-cue-comparison task and local gray matter volumes (GM) using Biological Parametric Mapping in 33 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 33 matched healthy controls. Alcoholics displayed reduced activation toward aversive faces-neutral shapes in bilateral fusiform gyrus [FG; Brodmann areas (BA) 18/19], right middle frontal gyrus (BA46/47), right inferior parietal gyrus (BA7) and left cerebellum compared with controls, which were explained by GM differences (except for cerebellum). Enhanced functional activation in patients versus controls was found in left rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus (BA10/11), even after GM reduction control. Increased ACC activation correlated significantly with less (previous) lifetime alcohol intake [Lifetime Drinking History (LDH)], longer abstinence and less subsequent binge drinking in patients. High LDH appear to impair treatment outcome via its neurotoxicity on ACC integrity. Thus, high activation of the rostral ACC elicited by affective faces appears to be a resilience factor predicting better treatment outcome. Although no group differences were found, increased FG activation correlated with patients' higher LDH. Because high LDH correlated with worse task performance for facial stimuli in patients, elevated activation in the fusiform 'face' area may reflect inefficient compensatory activation. Therapeutic interventions (e.g. emotion evaluation training) may enable patients to cope with social stress and to decrease relapses after detoxification. PMID

  14. A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. Method and analysis The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). Primary outcomes: (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. Trial registration ACTRN12612000384853. PMID:23355674

  15. PREDICTING STEEP ESCALATIONS IN ALCOHOL USE OVER THE TEENAGE YEARS: AGE-RELATED VARIATIONS IN KEY SOCIAL INFLUENCES

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Gary C. K.; Kelly, Adrian B.; Toumbourou, John W.; Hemphill, Sheryl A.; Young, Ross McD.; Haynes, Michele A.; Catalano, Richard F.

    2013-01-01

    Aims This study examined how family, peer and school factors are related to different trajectories of adolescent alcohol use at key developmental periods. Design Latent Class Growth Analysis was used to identify trajectories based on five waves of data (from Grade 6 - age 12 to Grade 11 – age 17), with predictors at Grade 5, Grade 7, and Grade 9 included as covariates. Setting Adolescents completed surveys during school hours. Participants 808 students in Victoria, Australia. Measurements Alcohol use trajectories were based on self-reports of 30 day frequency of alcohol use. Predictors included sibling alcohol use, attachment to parents, parental supervision, parental attitudes favorable to adolescent alcohol use, peer alcohol use, and school commitment. Findings 8.2% showed steep escalation in alcohol use. Relative to non-users, steep escalators were predicted by age-specific effects for low school commitment at Grade 7 (p = .031) and parental attitudes at Grade 5 (p = .003), and age-generalized effects for sibling alcohol use (ps = .001/.012/.033 at Grade 5/7/9) and peer alcohol use (ps = .041/.001/.001 at Grade 5/7/9). Poor parental supervision was associated with steep escalators at Grade 9 (p < .001) but not the other grades. Attachment to parents was unrelated to alcohol trajectories. Conclusions Parental disapproval of alcohol use before transition to high school, low school commitment at transition to high school, and sibling and peer alcohol use during adolescence are associated with higher risk of steep escalations in alcohol use. PMID:23834266

  16. Deficits in Emotion-Regulation Skills Predict Alcohol Use during and after Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Alcohol Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berking, Matthias; Margraf, Matthias; Ebert, David; Wupperman, Peggilee; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Junghanns, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Objective: As emotion regulation is widely considered to be a primary motive in the misuse of alcohol, our aim in the study was to investigate whether deficits in adaptive emotion-regulation skills maintain alcohol dependence (AD). Method: A prospective study investigated whether emotion-regulation skills were associated with AD and whether these…

  17. Disease versus Social-Learning Models of Alcoholism in the Prediction of Alcohol Problem Recognition, Help-Seeking, and Stigma.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rather, Bruce C.

    1991-01-01

    Examined college students' (n=254) attitudes after they were presented with either a disease or social learning view of alcoholism. Presentation of a disease view strengthened endorsement of that model, but attitudes toward alcoholics, treatment effectiveness, problem recognition, and help-seeking were not significantly different between the…

  18. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  19. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

    2016-01-01

    While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

  20. Maternal Factors Predicting Cognitive and Behavioral Characteristics of Children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

    PubMed Central

    May, Philip A.; Tabachnick, Barbara G.; Gossage, J. Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K.; Manning, Melanie A.; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). Method Multivariate correlation techniques were employed with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and employed in structural equation models (SEM) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and non-verbal) and behavior. Results A first SEM utilizing only seven maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05), but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status (SES), and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model, and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Conclusions While other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly-controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD. PMID:23751886

  1. Interactions Between Drinking Motives and Friends in Predicting Young Adults' Alcohol Use.

    PubMed

    Thrul, Johannes; Kuntsche, Emmanuel

    2016-07-01

    While drinking motives are well-established proximal predictors of alcohol use, less is known about their role in event-level drinking behavior. The present study examines whether the interaction between individuals' drinking motives and the number of friends present at a given moment can predict alcohol consumption over the course of the evening. Using the Internet-based cell phone-optimized assessment technique (ICAT), 183 young adults (53.0 % female, mean age = 23.1) in French-speaking Switzerland completed cell phone questionnaires every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday evening over five weekends. A total of 7205 questionnaires completed on 1441 evenings were analyzed. Drinking motives and gender were assessed at baseline, while the hourly alcohol consumption rate and number of friends present were assessed at 8 p.m., 9 p.m., 10 p.m., 11 p.m., and midnight. Multilevel growth curve models with time-invariant and time-varying covariates were estimated for men and women separately. Among women, enhancement motives were associated with an increase in the hourly alcohol consumption rate over the course of the evening (b = .025; p < .05). The impact of the number of friends present on the hourly consumption rate was stronger among those women who scored high on coping motives at baseline (b = .028; p < .05). Among men, drinking motives were found to have no moderating effects. Results highlight the role of drinking motives and their interactions with situational characteristics in determining event-level drinking, especially among women. Strategies to prevent risky weekend drinking should focus on both the social environment in which drinking takes place (e.g., the drinking group) and individual drinking motives. PMID:27165112

  2. Adolescent Risk Factors for Adult Alcohol Use and Abuse: Stability and Change of Predictive Value across Early and Middle Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Merline, Alicia; Jager, Justin; Schulenberg, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Aims To examine age-18 risk factors for alcohol use and heavy drinking during early (ages 22 and 26) and middle (age 35) adulthood, and for symptoms of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in middle adulthood. Design Nationally representative samples of U.S. adolescents in their senior year of secondary school (age 18) were followed into middle adulthood. Structural equation models estimated the associations between age-18 characteristics and current drinking and heavy drinking at ages 22, 26 and 35 and symptoms of AUDs at age 35. Participants The sample consisted of 21,137 respondents from 11 senior year cohorts (1976–1986) from the Monitoring the Future study. Findings Many predictor variables had stable associations with alcohol use over time, although their ability to explain variance in alcohol use declined with increasing time lags. Being White predicted alcohol use, but not symptoms of AUDs. Parental drinking, risk taking, and use of cigarettes and marijuana predicted heavy drinking through age 35. Planning to attend college predicted more heavy drinking at age 22 and less frequent heavy drinking by midlife. High school theft and property damage predicted later AUD symptoms. Most associations were invariant across gender, with variations typically taking the form of stronger associations between predictors and alcohol use for men. Invariance in findings across cohorts indicates that results reflect general developmental trends rather than specific historically bounded ones. Conclusions Many adolescent individual and contextual characteristics remain important predictors of adult alcohol use and abuse, and their predictive impact varies as a function of age and type of alcohol outcome. These associations are largely equivalent across gender and cohort, thus reflecting robust developmental linkages. PMID:18426542

  3. PREDICTION OF SEROTONERGIC TREATMENT EFFICACY USING AGE OF ONSET AND TYPE A/B TYPOLOGIES OF ALCOHOLISM

    PubMed Central

    Roache, John D.; Wang, Yanmei; Ait-Daoud, Nassima; Johnson, Bankole A.

    2009-01-01

    Background Previously, we reported that ondansetron was efficacious at treating early-onset (≤25 years old) but not late-onset (≥26 years old) alcoholics in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial (n = 321 enrolled patients, 271 of them randomized). Randomized participants underwent 11 weeks of treatment with ondansetron (1, 4, or 16 µg/kg twice daily; n = 67, 77, and 71, respectively) or identical placebo (n = 56), plus weekly standardized group cognitive behavioral therapy. Methods For this study, we reanalyzed the original sample to determine whether the Type A/B typological classification predicts ondansetron treatment response. In this comparative analysis, k-means clustering was applied to 19 baseline measures of drinking behavior, psychopathology, and social functioning, similar to those used by Babor in the original typological derivation. A two-factor solution described robustly two groups phenomenologically consistent with Type A/B classification. Subjects were subdivided into early- and late-onset alcoholics. Results Seventy-two percent of Type B subjects had early-onset alcoholism; 67% of Type A subjects had late-onset alcoholism. The A/B typology better discriminated two clusters based upon baseline severity of alcoholism. There was a significant effect (p < 0.05) for Type B alcoholics to respond to ondansetron (4 µg/kg); however, Type A alcoholics receiving ondansetron showed no beneficial effect. Early-vs. late-onset classification predicted ondansetron response substantially better than Type A/B classification, which did not add to the prediction of treatment outcome. Further analyses showed that ondansetron was effective in the 33% of Type A alcoholics with early-onset alcoholism but ineffective in the 28% of Type B alcoholics with late-onset alcoholism. Conclusions Type A/B classification best discriminates alcoholic subtypes based upon baseline severity. Early- vs. late-onset classification is, however, a better

  4. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  5. Interaction between a functional MAOA locus and childhood sexual abuse predicts alcoholism and antisocial personality disorder in adult women.

    PubMed

    Ducci, F; Enoch, M-A; Hodgkinson, C; Xu, K; Catena, M; Robin, R W; Goldman, D

    2008-03-01

    Women who have experienced childhood sexual abuse (CSA) have an increased risk of alcoholism and antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Among male subjects, a functional polymorphism (MAOA-LPR, monoamine oxidase A linked polymorphic region) in the promoter region of the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) appears to moderate the effect of childhood maltreatment on antisocial behavior. Our aim was to test whether MAOA-LPR influences the impact of CSA on alcoholism and ASPD in a sample of 291 women, 50% of whom have experienced CSA; we also tested whether haplotypes covering the region where both MAOA and monoamine oxidase B (MAOB) genes are located predict risk of alcoholism and ASPD better than the MAOA-LPR locus alone. Participants included 168 alcoholics (39 with ASPD (antisocial alcoholics) and 123 controls (no alcoholics, no ASPD). Antisocial behavior was also modeled as a continuous trait: ASPD symptoms count. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was associated with alcoholism (P=0.005), particularly antisocial alcoholism (P=0.00009), only among sexually abused subjects. Sexually abused women who were homozygous for the low activity allele had higher rates of alcoholism and ASPD, and more ASPD symptoms, than abused women homozygous for the high activity allele. Heterozygous women displayed an intermediate risk pattern. In contrast, there was no relationship between alcoholism/antisocial behavior and MAOA-LPR genotype among non-abused women. The MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found on three different haplotypes. The most abundant MAOA haplotype containing the MAOA-LPR low activity allele was found in excess among alcoholics (P=0.008) and antisocial alcoholics (P=0.001). Finally, a MAOB haplotype, which we termed haplotype C, was significantly associated with alcoholism (P=0.006), and to a lesser extent with antisocial alcoholism (P=0.03). In conclusions, MAOA seems to moderate the impact of childhood trauma on adult psychopathology in female subjects in the same way

  6. Interpersonal Perception and Alcohol Expectancies Predict Beverage Selection in Opposite Sex Dyadic Interactions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corcoran, Kevin J.; Michels, Jennifer L.

    1999-01-01

    Examines cognitive-personality and situational factors which contribute to the decision to consume alcohol in a mixed sex interaction among college students. Reports that men were more likely to choose alcohol, as were those with positive alcohol expectancies and those who perceived their partner as anxious. Typical alcohol consumption and fear of…

  7. If you feed them, will they come? The use of social marketing to increase interest in attending a college alcohol program.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Rebekka S; Kilmer, Jason R; Larimer, Mary E

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior. PMID:16889315

  8. Predictive fuzzy reasoning method for time series stock market data mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khokhar, Rashid H.; Md Sap, Mohd Noor

    2005-03-01

    Data mining is able to uncover hidden patterns and predict future trends and behaviors in financial markets. In this research we approach quantitative time series stock selection as a data mining problem. We present another modification of extraction of weighted fuzzy production rules (WFPRs) from fuzzy decision tree by using proposed similarity-based fuzzy reasoning method called predictive reasoning (PR) method. In proposed predictive reasoning method weight parameter can be assigned to each proposition in the antecedent of a fuzzy production rule (FPR) and certainty factor (CF) to each rule. Certainty factors are calculated by using some important variables like effect of other companies, effect of other local stock market, effect of overall world situation, and effect of political situation from stock market. The predictive FDT has been tested using three data sets including KLSE, NYSE and LSE. The experimental results show that WFPRs rules have high learning accuracy and also better predictive accuracy of stock market time series data.

  9. It is pleasant and heavy: convergence of visual contents in tobacco, alcohol and food marketing in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Viacava, Keitiline R; Weydmann, Gibson J; de Vasconcelos, Mailton F; Jaboinski, Juliana; Batista, Graziele D; de Almeida, Rosa Maria M; Bizarro, Lisiane

    2016-09-01

    The tactical use of visuoperceptual content in marketing may encourage impulsive consumption of unhealthy products. In this study, the application of visuoperceptual content was compared in advertisements used by industries of tobacco, alcohol and food. The aim was to ascertain whether similarities exist in the strategies used as variables for the selection of commercial stimuli, such as color, position and size. Scion Image and Corel Draw Graphics Suite software were used to analyze the content of a non-probabilistic sample of advertising images (N = 150). Differences were identified in the use of the colors green (p = 0.04) and red (p = 0.01), but not in the use of the color blue (p = 0.64), suggesting that induction of feelings of pleasantness resulting from the use of the color blue may be associated with the advertising in the alcohol and tobacco industries. Regarding the position of the commercial stimuli, a predominance of the use of quadrants 'C' (p = 0.00) and 'D' (p = 0.01) was found in all three industries, indicating a similar use of areas perceived as being 'heavier'. As to the size, 78% of advertisements placed the commercial stimuli within a range of 0-25% of the total image. The results showed some similarities in the use of visuoperceptual content in advertisements for tobacco, alcohol and food, especially between tobacco and alcohol. The article offers a convergence analysis of these three industries altogether, providing additional subsidies for the formulation of protection policies. PMID:26069295

  10. Men's Behavior Predicts Women's Risks for HIV/AIDS: Multilevel Analysis of Alcohol-Serving Venues in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Pitpitan, Eileen V; Kalichman, Seth C; Eaton, Lisa A; Sikkema, Kathleen J; Watt, Melissa H; Skinner, Donald; Pieterse, Desiree

    2016-05-01

    South Africa has among the highest rates of HIV infection in the world, with women disproportionately affected. Alcohol-serving venues, where alcohol use and sexual risk often intersect, play an important role in HIV risk. Previous studies indicate alcohol use and gender inequity as drivers of this epidemic, yet these factors have largely been examined using person-level predictors. We sought to advance upon this literature by examining venue-level predictors, namely men's gender attitudes, alcohol, and sex behavior, to predict women's risks for HIV. We recruited a cohort of 554 women from 12 alcohol venues (6 primarily Black African, and 6 primarily Coloured [i.e., mixed race] venues) in Cape Town, who were followed for 1 year across four time points. In each of these venues, men's (N = 2216) attitudes, alcohol use, and sexual behaviors were also assessed. Men's attitudes and behaviors at the venue level were modeled using multilevel modeling to predict women's unprotected sex over time. We stratified analyses by venue race. As predicted, venue-level characteristics were significantly associated with women's unprotected sex. Stratified results varied between Black and Coloured venues. Among Black venues where men reported drinking alcohol more frequently, and among Coloured venues where men reported meeting sex partners more frequently, women reported more unprotected sex. This study adds to the growing literature on venues, context, and HIV risk. The results demonstrate that men's behavior at alcohol drinking venues relate to women's risks for HIV. This novel finding suggests a need for social-structural interventions that target both men and women to reduce women's risks. PMID:26768432

  11. Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

    2015-05-01

    Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

  12. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyne Farmer, J.; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-02-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

  13. Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

    PubMed

    Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

    2000-11-01

    Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group. PMID:11133118

  14. Self-Rating of the Effects of Alcohol (SRE): Predictive utility and reliability across interview and self-report administrations.

    PubMed

    Ray, Lara A; Hart, Eliza J; Chin, Pauline F

    2011-03-01

    The Self-Rating of the Effects of Alcohol (SRE) is a widely used and well-established measure of the level of response to alcohol. Although the SRE has been successfully used in studies of alcoholism etiology, including genetics, studies to date have not compared the self-report and interview formats. The objectives of this study are to: (a) test the predictive utility of the subscales of the SRE in relation to alcohol problems; and (b) test the reliability of the SRE in interview versus self-report formats. A sample of college drinkers (n=446) completed the SRE in a self-report format along with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). A subset of participants (n=34) returned to the laboratory and completed the SRE in a face-to-face interview format. All subscales of the SRE were robust predictors of alcohol problems accounting for as much as 25% of the variance in AUDIT scores. In addition, scores obtained via self-report and interview-based SRE were highly correlated (r=.70 to .80). Results support the predictive utility of the SRE and provide initial evidence that the self-report and interview formats produce reliable results and may be combined and/or used interchangeably. PMID:21095629

  15. Psychopathy and the Prediction of Alcohol-Related Physical Aggression: The Roles of Impulsive Antisociality and Fearless Dominance

    PubMed Central

    Birkley, Erica L.; Giancola, Peter R.; Lance, Charles E.

    2012-01-01

    Background It is well established that individual difference factors modulate aggression under the acute effects of alcohol. In this investigation, we tested the hypothesis that one core dimension of psychopathy, Impulsive Antisociality, would modulate intoxicated aggression, whereas another dimension, Fearless Dominance, would not. Methods Participants were 516 young social drinkers (253 men and 263 women). Psychopathy was measured using the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; Lilienfeld and Andrews, 1996). Following the consumption of either an alcohol or a placebo beverage, aggression was measured with a task in which participants administered and received electric shocks to/from a fictitious opponent under the guise of a competitive reaction-time task. Results Hierarchical regression analyses supported our hypothesis: Impulsive Antisociality predicted aggression under alcohol, whereas Fearless Dominance did not. Conclusions Persons who tend to endorse antisocial and impulsive externalizing behaviors appear to be at greater risk for aggression under the acute influence of alcohol. PMID:22959485

  16. Examining a social reaction model in the prediction of adolescent alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Litt, Dana M; Lewis, Melissa A

    2016-09-01

    The prototype willingness model (PWM; Gerrard et al., 2008) is a modified dual-processing model designed to improve the predictive value of existing health risk behavior by suggesting that there are two pathways to health risk behaviors: a reasoned path that is mediated by behavioral intention and a social reaction path that is mediated by behavioral willingness. Although there is evidence supporting the social reaction path to risk behavior among adolescents, most of this work has focused on specific components of the pathway such as prototypes or willingness rather than looking at the entire social reaction pathway as a whole. As such, the primary goal of the present study was to determine whether the social reaction pathway has acceptable fit for a sample of adolescents using a longitudinal design. Results from 835 adolescents support the social reaction pathway of the PWM model when applied to adolescent alcohol use. Specifically, prototypes, perceived vulnerability, and norms predicted willingness to drink, which in turn predicted drinking behavior (drinks per week and peak number of drinks) over a period of 12months. As such, these findings suggest that the social reaction pathway of the PWM is applicable to adolescent drinkers, meaning that adolescent drinking behavior is based on a less planned and socially based decision process. PMID:27155242

  17. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  18. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

  19. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

  20. Diabetes Mellitus Predicts Occurrence of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Cancer in Alcoholic Liver and Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Raff, Evan J.; Kakati, Donny; Bloomer, Joseph R.; Shoreibah, Mohamed; Rasheed, Khalid; Singal, Ashwani K.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Alcohol abuse and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are common causes of liver disease. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a common comorbidity among NAFLD patients. We performed this study with the specific aim to examine the impact of DM on progression of alcoholic liver disease (ALD) liver and NAFLD. Methods Medical charts of 480 patients with ALD or NAFLD (2004–2011) managed at a tertiary center were retrospectively reviewed. NAFLD was diagnosed based on exclusion of other causes of liver disease and alcohol use of <10 g/d. ALD was diagnosed based on alcohol use of >40 g/d in women or >60 g/d in men for >5 years. Results Of 480 patients (307 NAFLD), 200 diabetics differed from nondiabetics for: age (52±11 vs. 49±11 years; p=0.004); male gender (48% vs. 57%; p=0.03); metabolic syndrome (49% vs. 30%; p=0.0002); NAFLD (80% vs. 56%; p<0.0001); cirrhosis (70% vs. 59%; p=0.005); and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; 8% vs. 3%; p=0.009). Over a 3 year median follow-up period, diabetics relative to nondiabetics had a higher probability to develop cirrhosis (60% vs. 41%; p=0.022) and HCC (27% vs. 10%; p=0.045). There was a trend for increased development of hepatic encephalopathy in diabetics compared to nondiabetics (55% vs. 39%; p=0.053), and there was no difference between the two groups in survival or other liver disease complications. Conclusions DM increased risk for cirrhosis and HCC among patients with ALD and NAFLD. Prospective studies with longer follow-up periods are needed to examine the impact of DM on survival and the role of aggressive HCC screening in diabetic cirrhotics. PMID:26356325

  1. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

    2005-01-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. PMID:15687505

  2. The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

    PubMed

    Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

    2005-02-01

    Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. PMID:15687505

  3. Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

    2004-06-01

    We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (October 2002-October 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. Based on an analysis including data up to 2003/10/28, we have predicted that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004). Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding.

  4. Deposit subscribe Prediction using Data Mining Techniques based Real Marketing Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Safia

    2015-01-01

    Recently, economic depression, which scoured all over the world, affects business organizations and banking sectors. Such economic pose causes a severe attrition for banks and customer retention becomes impossible. Accordingly, marketing managers are in need to increase marketing campaigns, whereas organizations evade both expenses and business expansion. In order to solve such riddle, data mining techniques is used as an uttermost factor in data analysis, data summarizations, hidden pattern discovery, and data interpretation. In this paper, rough set theory and decision tree mining techniques have been implemented, using a real marketing data obtained from Portuguese marketing campaign related to bank deposit subscription [Moro et al., 2011]. The paper aims to improve the efficiency of the marketing campaigns and helping the decision makers by reducing the number of features, that describes the dataset and spotting on the most significant ones, and predict the deposit customer retention criteria based on potential predictive rules.

  5. Inhibition during Early Adolescence Predicts Alcohol and Marijuana Use by Late Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Jacobus, Joanna; Nguyen-Louie, Tam T.; Tapert, Susan F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Adolescent substance use has been associated with poorer neuropsychological functioning, but it is unclear if deficits predate or follow the onset of use. The goal of this prospective study was to understand how neuropsychological functioning during early adolescence could predict substance use by late adolescence. Method At baseline, participants were 175 substance use-naïve healthy 12–14 year-olds (41% female) recruited from local schools. Participants completed extensive interviews and neuropsychological tests. Each year, participants’ substance use was assessed. By late adolescence (ages 17–18), 105 participants transitioned into substance use, while 75 remained substance-naïve. Hierarchical linear regressions examined how baseline cognitive performance predicted subsequent substance use, controlling for common substance use risk factors (i.e., family history, externalizing behaviors, gender, pubertal development, and age). Results Poorer baseline performance on tests of cognitive inhibition-interference predicted higher follow-up peak drinks on an occasion (β=−.15; p<.001), more days of drinking (β=−.15; p<.001), and more marijuana use days (β=−.17; p<.001) by ages 17–18, above and beyond covariates. Performances on short term memory, sustained attention, verbal learning and memory, visuospatial functioning, and spatial planning did not predict subsequent substance involvement (ps > .05). Conclusions Compromised inhibitory functioning during early adolescence prior to the onset of substance use was related to more frequent and intense alcohol and marijuana use by late adolescence. Inhibition performance could help identify teens at risk for initiating heavy substance use during adolescence, and potentially could be modified to improve outcome. PMID:24749728

  6. The Utility of the Prototype/Willingness Model in Predicting Alcohol Use among North American Indigenous Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armenta, Brian E.; Hautala, Dane S.; Whitbeck, Les B.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we considered the utility of the prototype/willingness model in predicting alcohol use among North-American Indigenous adolescents. Specifically, using longitudinal data, we examined the associations among subjective drinking norms, positive drinker prototypes, drinking expectations (as a proxy of drinking willingness), and…

  7. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P

    2016-06-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours. PMID:25089611

  8. How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r + = .62), followed by subjective norms (r + = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r + = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r + = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r + = −.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r + = .54), followed by SE (r + = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r + = −.05 and −.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude–intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude–intention and SE–intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours. PMID:25089611

  9. Investigation of Aggravating Psychosocial Factors on Health and Predictability of Smoking and Alcohol Use in Post Adolescent Students

    PubMed Central

    Barmpagianni, Effrosyni; Travlos, Antonios; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sachlas, Athanasios; Zyga, Sofia

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual. PMID:26973900

  10. Investigation of Aggravating Psychosocial Factors on Health and Predictability of Smoking and Alcohol Use in Post Adolescent Students.

    PubMed

    Barmpagianni, Effrosyni; Travlos, Antonios; Kalokairinou, Athina; Sachlas, Athanasios; Zyga, Sofia

    2013-04-18

    Purpose of this study is to explore those factors which affect the health of students in postadolescent age, focusing on smoking and alcohol use, especially in regard to ways of predicting adoption of this behavior and its frequency to detect future users of tobacco and alcohol use but also high-risk groups, i.e. those people who are led to abuses. On the basis of the research part is the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the axes of which are to be investigated. Specifically, the factors evaluated, except for population parameters, behavioral attitudes, i.e. attitudes towards the behavior of tobacco use and alcohol regulations subjective perceptions and perceptions of control, perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy. Intention is explored to continue or start using tobacco and alcohol in the future and evaluate the behavior. The sample consisted of 138 students of postadolescent age, 18-25 years of both sexes, all of the University of Peloponnese and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Department of Sparta, Greece. The results of a series of statistical analysis, via SPSS 21.0 statistical program revealed the predictive power of perceived behavioral control and subjective norms to the intention of interpreting 64% of the variance of the latter, of the attitudes toward alcohol in relation to intention that interpret 69% of the variance, of the normative beliefs toward smoking with 69% range of interpretation to the dependent variable, of the perceived behavioral control of smoking with 72% and of the attitudes toward smoking with 77% of interpretation. The results demonstrate the significance and application in universities and technological educational institutes appropriate primary preventive interventions for students nonusers of tobacco and alcohol and appropriate programs of secondary and tertiary prevention in heavy users of tobacco and alcohol use and high-risk individual. PMID:26973900

  11. Prediction of alcohol drinking in adolescents: Personality-traits, behavior, brain responses, and genetic variations in the context of reward sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Heinrich, Angela; Müller, Kathrin U; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Fauth-Bühler, Mira; Papadopoulos, Dimitri; Gallinat, Jürgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paus, Tomáš; Pausova, Zdenka; Smolka, Michael; Ströhle, Andreas; Rietschel, Marcella; Flor, Herta; Schumann, Gunter; Nees, Frauke

    2016-07-01

    Adolescence is a time that can set the course of alcohol abuse later in life. Sensitivity to reward on multiple levels is a major factor in this development. We examined 736 adolescents from the IMAGEN longitudinal study for alcohol drinking during early (mean age=14.37) and again later (mean age=16.45) adolescence. Conducting structural equation modeling we evaluated the contribution of reward-related personality traits, behavior, brain responses and candidate genes. Personality seems to be most important in explaining alcohol drinking in early adolescence. However, genetic variations in ANKK1 (rs1800497) and HOMER1 (rs7713917) play an equal role in predicting alcohol drinking two years later and are most important in predicting the increase in alcohol consumption. We hypothesize that the initiation of alcohol use may be driven more strongly by personality while the transition to increased alcohol use is more genetically influenced. PMID:27180911

  12. Systemic Inflammatory Response and Serum Lipopolysaccharide Levels Predict Multiple Organ Failure and Death in Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G.; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z.; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P <0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P=0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. Conclusion In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. PMID:25761863

  13. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. PMID:20837097

  14. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  15. Alcohol-Related Incident Guardianship and Undergraduate College Parties: Enhancing the Social Norms Marketing Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilbertson, Troy A.

    2006-01-01

    This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking…

  16. Alcohol use longitudinally predicts adjustment and impairment in college students with ADHD: The role of executive functions.

    PubMed

    Langberg, Joshua M; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Kipperman, Kristen L; Molitor, Stephen J; Eddy, Laura D

    2015-06-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether alcohol consumption longitudinally predicts the adjustment, overall functioning, and grade point average (GPA) of college students with ADHD and to determine whether self-report of executive functioning (EF) mediates these relationships. Sixty-two college students comprehensively diagnosed with ADHD completed ratings at the beginning and end of the school year. Regression analyses revealed that alcohol consumption rated at the beginning of the year significantly predicted self-report of adjustment and overall impairment at the end of the year, above and beyond ADHD symptoms and baseline levels of adjustment/impairment but did not predict GPA. Exploratory multiple mediator analyses suggest that alcohol use impacts impairment primarily through EF deficits in self-motivation. EF deficits in the motivation to refrain from pursuing immediately rewarding behaviors in order to work toward long-term goals appear to be particularly important in understanding why college students with ADHD who consume alcohol have a higher likelihood of experiencing significant negative outcomes. The implications of these findings for the prevention of the negative functional outcomes often experienced by college students with ADHD are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:25347020

  17. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes.

    PubMed

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  18. Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes

    PubMed Central

    Bordino, Ilaria; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Cristelli, Matthieu; Ukkonen, Antti; Weber, Ingmar

    2012-01-01

    We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. PMID:22829871

  19. Parental problem drinking predicts implicit alcohol expectancy in adolescents and young adults.

    PubMed

    Belles, Stefan; Budde, Axel; Moesgen, Diana; Klein, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the influence of parental problem drinking on implicit and explicit alcohol expectancy of adolescents and young adults (12-24 years). The study was conducted via the Internet, employing a between-subjects design. We measured alcohol expectancy by means of an Implicit Association Test (IAT) and a self-report questionnaire. A short version of the Children of Alcoholics Screening Test (CAST) was used to measure alcohol-related parental problem behavior. Our results showed that increased CAST-scores were correlated with a stronger implicit association between the concepts alcohol and arousal. In contrast, no such relationship was observed between parental problem drinking and self-reported expectancy of alcohol arousal. These findings provide tentative evidence that an implicit cognitive processing bias is implicated in the intergenerational transmission of addictive behaviors. PMID:21802213

  20. Comparison of two locus of control scales in predicting relapse in an alcoholic population.

    PubMed

    Johnson, E E; Nora, R M; Tan, B; Bustos, N

    1991-02-01

    A 3-mo. follow-up was made of 64 male veterans who were discharged from a 21-day Alcohol Detoxification Treatment Program at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center at Lyons, NJ. Scores on the Rotter I-E and Alcohol Responsibility Scales were significantly correlated with tendencies toward a more external direction among the 13% who relapsed, significant on the I-E scale and nonsignificant on the Alcohol Responsibility Scale. When tests were compared as possible predictor variables of alcoholic relapse, the difference in favor of the I-E scale was statistically nonsignificant. PMID:2038534

  1. The Role of Personality in Predicting Drug and Alcohol Use Among Sexual Minorities

    PubMed Central

    Livingston, Nicholas A.; Oost, Kathryn M.; Heck, Nicholas C.; Cochran, Bryan N.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. Methods A sample of 704 sexual minority adults were recruited nationally from LGBTQQ community organizations and social networking websites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Results Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of Five-Factor personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Conclusion Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. PMID:25347022

  2. The role of personality in predicting drug and alcohol use among sexual minorities.

    PubMed

    Livingston, Nicholas A; Oost, Kathryn M; Heck, Nicholas C; Cochran, Bryan N

    2015-06-01

    Research consistently demonstrates that sexual minority status is associated with increased risk of problematic substance use. Existing literature in this area has focused on group-specific minority stress factors (e.g., victimization and internalized heterosexism). However, no known research has tested the incremental validity of personality traits as predictors of substance use beyond identified group-specific risk factors. A sample of 704 sexual minority adults was recruited nationally from lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning community organizations and social networking Web sites and asked to complete an online survey containing measures of personality, sexual minority stress, and substance use. Hierarchical regression models were constructed to test the incremental predictive validity of five-factor model personality traits over and above known sexual minority risk factors. Consistent with hypotheses, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with drug and alcohol use after accounting for minority stress factors, and all factors except agreeableness were associated with substance use at the bivariate level of analysis. Future research should seek to better understand the role of normal personality structures and processes conferring risk for substance use among sexual minorities. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:25347022

  3. Does sexual victimization predict subsequent alcohol consumption? A prospective study among a community sample of women.

    PubMed

    Testa, Maria; Livingston, Jennifer A; Hoffman, Joseph H

    2007-12-01

    Although rape and sexual victimization experiences have been hypothesized to contribute to subsequent heavy drinking and alcohol problems among women, little prospective evidence exists. The present prospective study examined whether sexual victimization contributes to subsequent heavy drinking among a community sample of women, 18-30 years of age (n=927). Using three waves of data, 12 months apart, we examined the impact of T1 sexual victimization on T2 heavy drinking, and of T2 sexual victimization on T3 heavy drinking. There were significant bivariate differences between sexually victimized and non-victimized women on heavy drinking both concurrently and prospectively. However, after controlling for prior heavy drinking and demographic variables, most differences disappeared. We also tested the hypothesis that Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Symptoms would mediate the relationship between T2 sexual victimization and T3 heavy drinking. Although T2 sexual victimization predicted T2 PTSD symptoms, PTSD did not contribute to subsequent heavy drinking. Findings suggest that heavy drinking is relatively stable over time and that sexual victimization does not make a substantial independent contribution to heavy drinking among women in the general population. PMID:17597304

  4. Comorbidities, Alcohol Use Disorder, and Age Predict Outcomes after Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Graf, Solomon A; Vaughn, Jennifer E; Chauncey, Thomas R; Storer, Barry E; Gopal, Ajay K; Holmberg, Leona A; McCune, Jeannine S; Bensinger, William I; Maloney, David G; Press, Oliver W; Storb, Rainer; Sorror, Mohamed L

    2016-09-01

    Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a treatment option for many patients diagnosed with lymphoma. The effects of patient-specific factors on outcomes after autologous HCT are not well characterized. Here, we studied a sequential cohort of 754 patients with lymphoma treated with autologous HCT between 2000 and 2010. In multivariate analysis, patient-specific factors that were statistically significantly associated with nonrelapse mortality (NRM) included HCT-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) scores  ≥ 3 (HR, 1.94; P = .05), a history of alcohol use disorder (AUD) (HR, 2.17; P = .004), and older age stratified by decade (HR, 1.29; P = .02). HCT-CI ≥ 3, a history of AUD, and age > 50 were combined into a composite risk model: NRM and overall mortality rates at 5 years increased from 6% to 30% and 32% to 58%, respectively, in patients with 0 versus all 3 risk factors. The HCT-CI is a valid tool in predicting mortality risks after autologous HCT for lymphoma. AUD and older age exert independent prognostic impact on outcomes. Whether AUD indicates additional organ dysfunction or sociobehavioral abnormality warrants further investigation. The composite model may improve risk stratification before autologous HCT. PMID:27311969

  5. Executive Function Predicts Adaptive Behavior in Children with Histories of Heavy Prenatal Alcohol Exposure and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Ware, Ashley L.; Crocker, Nicole; O’Brien, Jessica W.; Deweese, Benjamin N.; Roesch, Scott C.; Coles, Claire D.; Kable, Julie A.; May, Philip A.; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Sowell, Elizabeth R.; Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Riley, Edward P.; Mattson, Sarah N.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose of Study Prenatal exposure to alcohol often results in disruption to discrete cognitive and behavioral domains, including executive function (EF) and adaptive functioning. In the current study, the relation between these two domains was examined in children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure, non-exposed children with a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and typically developing controls. Methods As part of a multisite study, three groups of children (8-18y, M = 12.10) were tested: children with histories of heavy prenatal alcohol exposure (ALC, N=142), non-exposed children with ADHD (ADHD, N=82), and typically developing controls (CON, N=133) who did not have ADHD or a history of prenatal alcohol exposure. Children completed subtests of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) and their primary caregivers completed the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-II (VABS). Data were analyzed using regression analyses. Results Analyses showed that EF measures were predictive of adaptive abilities and significant interactions between D-KEFS measures and group were present. For the ADHD group, the relation between adaptive abilities and EF was more general, with three of the four EF measures showing a significant relation with adaptive score. In contrast, for the ALC group, this relation was specific to the nonverbal EF measures. In the CON group, performance on EF tasks did not predict adaptive scores over the influence of age. Conclusion These results support prior research in ADHD suggesting that EF deficits are predictive of poorer adaptive behavior and extend this finding to include children with heavy prenatal exposure to alcohol. However, the relation between EF and adaptive ability differed by group, suggesting unique patterns of abilities in these children. These results provide enhanced understanding of adaptive deficits in these populations, as well as demonstrate the ecological validity of laboratory

  6. The Role of Religious Beliefs and Behaviors in Predicting Underage Alcohol Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brechting, Emily H.; Brown, Tamara L.; Salsman, John M.; Sauer, Shannon E.; Holeman, Virginia T.; Carlson, Charles R.

    2010-01-01

    Religious beliefs have consistently emerged as significantly and inversely related to alcohol use. This article seeks further understanding of this relationship by exploring the role of religious behaviors in this relationship in three ways. First, we aim to determine whether the relationship between religious beliefs and alcohol use differs with…

  7. The Demographics of Alcohol Use among Young Americans: Results from the 1983 National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crowley, Joan E.

    This document gives results of research on alcohol use by young Americans from the 1983 National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth, a survey of a large, nationally representative sample supplemented by samples of blacks, Hispanics, and economically disadvantaged non-black, non-Hispanic youth and covering the entire range of…

  8. If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

    2006-01-01

    The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…

  9. Life stress in adolescence predicts early adult reward-related brain function and alcohol dependence

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Daniel S.; Sitnick, Stephanie L.; Musselman, Samuel C.; Forbes, Erika E.

    2015-01-01

    Stressful life events increase vulnerability to problematic alcohol use, and they may do this by disrupting reward-related neural circuitry. This is particularly relevant for adolescents because alcohol use rises sharply after mid-adolescence and alcohol abuse peaks at age 20. Adolescents also report more stressors compared with children, and neural reward circuitry may be especially vulnerable to stressors during adolescence because of prefrontal cortex remodeling. Using a large sample of male participants in a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging study (N = 157), we evaluated whether cumulative stressful life events between the ages of 15 and 18 were associated with reward-related brain function and problematic alcohol use at age 20 years. Higher cumulative stressful life events during adolescence were associated with decreased response in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) during monetary reward anticipation and following the receipt of monetary rewards. Stress-related decreases in mPFC response during reward anticipation and following rewarding outcomes were associated with the severity of alcohol dependence. Furthermore, mPFC response mediated the association between stressful life events and later symptoms of alcohol dependence. These data are consistent with neurobiological models of addiction that propose that stressors during adolescence increase risk for problematic alcohol use by disrupting reward circuit function. PMID:24795442

  10. Trauma and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Predict Alcohol and Other Drug Consequence Trajectories in the First Year of College

    PubMed Central

    Read, Jennifer P.; Colder, Craig R.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Ouimette, Paige; White, Jacquelyn; Swartout, Ashlyn

    2012-01-01

    Objective College matriculation begins a period of transition into adulthood, one that is marked by new freedoms and responsibilities. This transition also is marked by an escalation in heavy drinking and other drug use, and a variety of use-related negative consequences. Trauma and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may affect alcohol and drug problems, and thus may be a point of intervention. Yet no studies have examined trauma, PTSD, and alcohol and drug problem associations during this developmental period. The present study provides such an examination. Method Matriculating college students (N=997) completed surveys in September (T1) and at five subsequent time points (T2-T6) over their first year of college. With latent growth analysis, trajectories of alcohol and drug-related consequences were modeled to examine how trauma (No Criterion A Trauma, Criterion A Only, No PTSD symptoms) and PTSD (partial or full) symptom status predicted these trajectories. Results Results showed substantial risk for alcohol- and other drug-related negative consequences that is conferred by the presence of PTSD at matriculation. Those with both partial and full PTSD started the year with more alcohol and drug consequences. These individuals showed a steeper decrease in consequences in the first semester, which leveled off as the year progressed. Both alcohol and drug consequences remained higher for those in the PTSD group throughout the academic year. Hyper-arousal symptoms showed unique effects on substance consequence trajectories. Risk patterns were consistent for both partial and full PTSD symptom presentations. Trajectories did not vary by gender. Conclusions Interventions that offer support and resources to students entering college with PTSD may help to ameliorate problem substance use and may ultimately facilitate a stronger transition into college and beyond. PMID:22545739

  11. Stopping smoking during first year of substance use treatment predicted 9-year alcohol and drug treatment outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Tsoh, Janice Y.; Chi, Felicia W.; Mertens, Jennifer R.; Weisner, Constance M.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the association between stopping smoking at 1 year after substance use treatment intake and long-term substance use outcomes. Nine years of prospective data from 1,185 adults (39% female) in substance use treatment at a private health care setting were analyzed by multivariate logistic generalized estimating equation models. At 1 year, 14.1% of 716 participants who smoked cigarettes at intake reported stopping smoking, and 10.7% of the 469 non-smokers at intake reported smoking. After adjusting for sociodemographics, substance use severity and diagnosis at intake, length of stay in treatment, and substance use status at 1 year, those who stopped smoking at 1 year were more likely to be past-year abstinent from drugs, or in past-year remission of drugs and alcohol combined, at follow-ups than those who continued to smoke (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2 – 4.7 and OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1 – 2.4, respectively). Stopping smoking at 1 year also predicted past-year alcohol abstinence through 9 years after intake among those with drug-only dependence (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2 – 4.5). We found no association between past-year alcohol abstinence and change in smoking status at 1 year for those with alcohol dependence or other substance use diagnoses when controlling for alcohol use status at 1 year. Stopping smoking during the first year after substance use treatment intake predicted better long-term substance use outcomes through 9 years after intake. Findings support promoting smoking cessation among smoking clients in substance use treatment. PMID:21050681

  12. Differential Prediction of Alcohol vs. Hard Drug Use Levels in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Community Youth Program Impact Scales, Age, and Sex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Truckenmiller, James L.

    Recent national surveys have found marked increases in the use of illicit drugs and alcohol among adolescents. To investigate differential prediction of alcohol versus hard drug use amoung youths, 6% of the youths, aged 10-19, from a Pennsylvania county school system (N=1,689) were assessed on the HEW Community Youth Program Impact Scales. The 12…

  13. The Role of Feedback in the Assimilation of Information in Prediction Markets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolly, Richard Donald

    2011-01-01

    Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

  14. Southpoint: A Search for Predictive Variables for Determination of Success in Alcoholism Rehabilitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klein, John Paul

    1973-01-01

    Southpoint is a retrospective study of variables (age, marital status, education, work history, client's use of public assistance or compensation) involved in attempting to relate successful rehabilitation of alcoholics. (EA)

  15. The role of anxiety sensitivity and drinking motives in predicting alcohol use: a critical review.

    PubMed

    DeMartini, Kelly S; Carey, Kate B

    2011-02-01

    Anxiety sensitivity (AS) is a cognitive, individual difference variable that refers to the fear of arousal-related bodily sensations. Persons with high AS fear these sensations because they believe the sensations are signs of impending catastrophic events. AS has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and also risky drinking motives, including coping and conformity motives. This paper summarizes statistical modeling studies and experimental research on the functional relationships between AS and drinking motives and alcohol consumption. AS functions as a risk factor that sets the stage for negative reinforcement by alcohol use. Whether alcohol use becomes a method of coping with AS depends on multiple risk factors and motivations. We propose an integrated model to account for the observed relationships and to guide future research. In addition, we identify key methodological limitations and directions for future research. PMID:21074306

  16. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doyle, Peter

    1987-01-01

    Explores the role of marketing in the modern firm and the key tasks of marketing management. Defines the term "marketing" and discusses it as an economic concept. Discusses three key marketing principals. (RKM)

  17. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence.

    PubMed

    Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs. PMID:26968030

  18. The Combination of Marketed Antagonists of α1b-Adrenergic and 5-HT2A Receptors Inhibits Behavioral Sensitization and Preference to Alcohol in Mice: A Promising Approach for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence

    PubMed Central

    Trovero, Fabrice; David, Sabrina; Bernard, Philippe; Puech, Alain; Bizot, Jean-Charles; Tassin, Jean-Pol

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol-dependence is a chronic disease with a dramatic and expensive social impact. Previous studies have indicated that the blockade of two monoaminergic receptors, α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A, could inhibit the development of behavioral sensitization to drugs of abuse, a hallmark of drug-seeking and drug-taking behaviors in rodents. Here, in order to develop a potential therapeutic treatment of alcohol dependence in humans, we have blocked these two monoaminergic receptors by a combination of antagonists already approved by Health Agencies. We show that the association of ifenprodil (1 mg/kg) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) (α1-adrenergic and 5-HT2 receptor antagonists marketed as Vadilex ® and Periactine ® in France, respectively) blocks behavioral sensitization to amphetamine in C57Bl6 mice and to alcohol in DBA2 mice. Moreover, this combination of antagonists inhibits alcohol intake in mice habituated to alcohol (10% v/v) and reverses their alcohol preference. Finally, in order to verify that the effect of ifenprodil was not due to its anti-NMDA receptors property, we have shown that a combination of prazosin (0.5 mg/kg, an α1b-adrenergic antagonist, Mini-Press ® in France) and cyproheptadine (1 mg/kg) could also reverse alcohol preference. Altogether these findings strongly suggest that combined prazosin and cyproheptadine could be efficient as a therapy to treat alcoholism in humans. Finally, because α1b-adrenergic and 5-HT2A receptors blockade also inhibits behavioral sensitization to psychostimulants, opioids and tobacco, it cannot be excluded that this combination will exhibit some efficacy in the treatment of addiction to other abused drugs. PMID:26968030

  19. The Predictive Power of Family History Measures of Alcohol and Drug Problems and Internalizing Disorders In A College Population

    PubMed Central

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-01-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. PMID:25946510

  20. The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

    PubMed

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. PMID:25946510

  1. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  2. The interplay of trait anger, childhood physical abuse, and alcohol consumption in predicting intimate partner aggression.

    PubMed

    Maldonado, Rosalita C; Watkins, Laura E; DiLillo, David

    2015-04-01

    The current study examined three well-established risk factors for intimate partner aggression (IPA) within Finkel and Eckhardt's I(3) model, including two impellance factors-trait anger and childhood physical abuse history-and the disinhibiting factor of alcohol consumption. Participants were 236 male and female college students in a committed heterosexual dating relationship who completed a battery of self-report measures assessing childhood physical abuse, trait anger, alcohol consumption, and IPA perpetration. Results revealed a significant three-way interaction showing that as the disinhibition factor alcohol consumption increased, the interaction of the two impelling factors, trait anger and childhood physical abuse, became increasingly more positive. Individuals who had high levels of childhood physical abuse and alcohol consumption were at greater risk of IPA perpetration when trait anger was high. Consistent with the I(3) model, these findings suggest that trait anger and a history of childhood physical abuse may increase tendencies to aggress against one's partner, whereas alcohol consumption may reduce individuals' abilities to manage these aggressive tendencies. The importance of interplay among these risk factors in elevating IPA risk is discussed, as are the implications for clinicians working with male and female IPA perpetrators. PMID:25012954

  3. The predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy for stock market dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraiani, Petre

    2014-01-01

    We use a correlation-based approach to analyze financial data from the US stock market, both daily and monthly observations from the Dow Jones. We compute the entropy based on the singular value decomposition of the correlation matrix for the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Based on a moving window, we derive time varying measures of entropy for both daily and monthly data. We find that the entropy has a predictive ability with respect to stock market dynamics as indicated by the Granger causality tests.

  4. A generalized corresponding states method for predicting the limits of superheat of mixtures: application to the normal alcohols

    SciTech Connect

    Avedisian, C.T.; Sullivan, J.R.

    1983-07-01

    The limits of superheat of the normal alcohols from methanol to octanol and of ethanol/n-propanol, n-propanol/n-butanol, and n-butanol/n-pentanol mixtures were measured at atmospheric pressure. The results were correlated using a new method based on the generalized corresponding states principle in which the properties of two reference substances were used to predict the superheat limits of the liquids studied. Ethanol and n-butanol, and the two components of each mixture studied, were used as reference fluids for predicting the superheat limits of the pure alcohols and mixtures respectively. Results showed that it is possible to predict superheat limits to well within the accuracy of experimental measurements (< 1%). The method requires only accurate vapor pressure correlations and accentric factors of the reference fluids, and an accurate method for predicting the true critical temperature and pressure of the mixture. Considerable simplification using the present method over the approach based on classical homogeneous nucleation theory is derived from the fact that no mixture surface tension or bubble point pressure data are required.

  5. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    PubMed

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  6. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  7. Do Negative Emotions Predict Alcohol Consumption, Saturated Fat Intake, and Physical Activity in Older Adults?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anton, Stephen D.; Miller, Peter M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined anger, depression, and stress as related to alcohol consumption, saturated fat intake, and physical activity. Participants were 23 older adults enrolled in either an outpatient or in-residence executive health program. Participants completed (a) a health-risk appraisal assessing medical history and current health habits, (b)…

  8. Using "Bud World Party" Attendance to Predict Adolescent Alcohol Use and Beliefs about Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomsen, Steven R.; Rekve, Dag; Lindsay, Gordon B.

    2004-01-01

    This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where…

  9. High School Drinker Typologies Predict Alcohol Involvement and Psychosocial Adjustment during Acclimation to College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hersh, Matthew A.; Hussong, Andrea M.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined differences among distinct types of high school drinkers on their alcohol involvement and psychosocial adjustment during the first semester of college. Participants were 147 college freshmen (66% female; 86% Caucasian) from a large Southeastern public university who reported on high school drinking and college stress, affect,…

  10. Relational Aggression, Positive Urgency and Negative Urgency: Predicting Alcohol Use and Consequences among College Students

    PubMed Central

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; Napper, Lucy E.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g. acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions. PMID:25134025

  11. Prediction of breeding values for tenderness of market animals from measurements on bulls.

    PubMed

    Barkhouse, K L; Van Vleck, L D; Cundiff, L V; Koohmaraie, M; Lunstra, D D; Crouse, J D

    1996-11-01

    Data were tenderness measures on steaks from 237 bulls (Group II) slaughtered after producing freezable semen and on 1,431 related steers and heifers (market animals, Group I) from Angus, Hereford, Pinzgauer, Brahman, and Sahiwal crosses from the Germ Plasm Evaluation project at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center. Tenderness was assessed through Warner-Bratzler Shear Force (SF), taste panel tenderness (TPT), marbling score (MS), and myofibrillar fragmentation index (MFI). For all traits, as fraction Bos indicus inheritance increased, implied tenderness decreased. Heritability estimates were generally not significantly different from zero. Genetic correlations generally indicated favorable associations among the traits. The range in predicted breeding values of bulls for market animal tenderness was small and from -.34 to .32 kg for market animal shear force. Because of low estimates of heritability for SF or TPT, results from this experiment indicate that selection based on tenderness of steaks sampled from intact or late castrate males slaughtered following collection of freezable quality semen would not be very effective in improving average tenderness of steaks from steers of heifer progeny. If a mean of heritability estimates reported in the literature of .27 for shear value was assumed for market steer and heifer progeny instead of .02 as found in the present study, then selection based on estimates of shear force in young bulls would be relatively more effective in improving shear force of market progeny. PMID:8923175

  12. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    PubMed

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics. PMID:23004832

  13. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  14. Dispelling the myth of "smart drugs": cannabis and alcohol use problems predict nonmedical use of prescription stimulants for studying.

    PubMed

    Arria, Amelia M; Wilcox, Holly C; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Vincent, Kathryn B; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M; O'Grady, Kevin E

    2013-03-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that college students' substance use problems would predict increases in skipping classes and declining academic performance, and that nonmedical use of prescription stimulants (NPS) for studying would occur in association with this decline. A cohort of 984 students in the College Life Study at a large public university in the US participated in a longitudinal prospective study. Interviewers assessed NPS; Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) cannabis and alcohol use disorders; and frequency of skipping class. Semester grade point average (GPA) was obtained from the university. Control variables were race, sex, family income, high school GPA, and self-reported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis. Longitudinal growth curve modeling of four annual data waves estimated the associations among the rates of change of cannabis use disorder, percentage of classes skipped, and semester GPA. The associations between these trajectories and NPS for studying were then evaluated. A second structural model substituted alcohol use disorder for cannabis use disorder. More than one-third (38%) reported NPS for studying at least once by Year 4. Increases in skipping class were associated with both alcohol and cannabis use disorder, which were associated with declining GPA. The hypothesized relationships between these trajectories and NPS for studying were confirmed. These longitudinal findings suggest that escalation of substance use problems during college is related to increases in skipping class and to declining academic performance. NPS for studying is associated with academic difficulties. Although additional research is needed to investigate causal pathways, these results suggest that nonmedical users of prescription stimulants could benefit from a comprehensive drug and alcohol assessment to possibly mitigate future academic declines. PMID:23254212

  15. The dark side of optimism: unrealistic optimism about problems with alcohol predicts subsequent negative event experiences.

    PubMed

    Dillard, Amanda J; Midboe, Amanda M; Klein, William M P

    2009-11-01

    College students were identified who were unrealistically optimistic about the likelihood they would experience severe problems due to alcohol consumption. These individuals were then followed over a 2-year period to determine whether they were more likely to report experiencing a range of alcohol-related negative events. Unlike the majority of studies on unrealistic optimism, this study (a) assessed bias at the individual rather than group level and (b) used a prospective rather than cross-sectional design. Participants completed measures at four times, each separated by 4-6 months. Findings showed that unrealistic optimism at Time 1 was associated with a greater number of negative events at Times 2, 3, and 4. Similarly, unrealistic optimism at Time 2 was associated with more negative events at Times 3 and 4. In all cases, the relationships were significant when controlling for previous negative events, suggesting the effects of unrealistic optimism can mount over time. PMID:19721102

  16. Quality of alcohol-based hand disinfectants and their regulatory status. Development and marketing authorisation.

    PubMed

    Stengele, Michael

    2008-10-01

    A 2005 survey showed that there are at least four legal product classifications for hand disinfectants in the European Union: medicinal products, biocidal products, cosmetics and medical devices. An internationally harmonized classification does not exist. The regulatory status of those products is defined at national level. In order to assure compliance with the regulations these four classifications provide different levels of official surveillance varying from product-specific marketing authorisations and production site audits to the obligation to just work in accordance with certain general guidelines. Biocidal product regulations cover eco-toxicological and toxicological aspects, but do not very much address to the customers' quality and efficacy expectations. In contrast, the medicinal product legislation is the most ambitious one claiming quality, safety, efficacy, and an independent benefit risk-assessment by an authority. In respect of ambition, the two remaining product categories--cosmetics and medical devices--rank between the both classifications mentioned above. For medical devices, it is the responsibility of the manufacturer to make sure the products meet defined essential requirements regarding quality, safety and performance and to have an appropriate quality assurance system implemented under third party control. For cosmetics there are some legal restrictions, but within these it is the sole responsibility of the manufacturer to ensure that the products are safe and fulfil their claims. This paper describes one way out of this increasingly complex situation, the definition of a single quality standard meeting the users' expectations as well as all legal requirements regardless of the specific sales country. This international quality standard for products would take priority over any individual national standard, to the benefit of users. PMID:18994682

  17. Hangover Predicts Residual Alcohol Effects on Psychomotor Vigilance the Morning After Intoxication

    PubMed Central

    Howland, Jonathan; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; Bliss, Caleb A.; Almeida, Alissa B.; Calise, Tamara Vehige; Heeren, Timothy; Winter, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Both hangover and performance deficits have been documented the day after drinking to intoxication after breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) has returned to near zero. But few studies have examined the relationship between hangover and post-intoxication performance. Method We performed secondary analyses of data from a previously reported controlled cross-over laboratory study to assess the relationship of hangover incidence and severity to sustained attention/reaction time the morning after drinking to about 0.11 g% BrAC. Relationships were investigated while controlling for gender, type of alcoholic beverage (bourbon or vodka), and neurocognitive performance after placebo. Results Hangover severity and neurocognitive performance were significantly correlated. Participants reporting stronger hangover were more impaired than those reporting little or no hangover. Comparing any to no hangover showed a trend in the same direction of effect. Conclusions More intense hangover may indicate less fitness for duty in workers in certain safety-sensitive occupations, with implications for occupational alcohol policies. PMID:21643431

  18. Predicting alcohol consumption in adolescence from alcohol-specific and general externalizing genetic risk factors, key environmental exposures and their interaction

    PubMed Central

    Kendler, K. S.; Gardner, C.; Dick, D. M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Alcohol consumption is influenced by specific genetic risk factors for alcohol use disorders (AUDs), non-specific genetic risk factors for externalizing behaviors and various environmental experiences. We have limited knowledge of how these risk factors inter-relate through development. Method Retrospective assessments in 1796 adult male twins using a life history calendar of key environmental exposures and alcohol consumption from early adolescence to mid-adulthood. Analysis by linear mixed models. Results The importance of non-specific genetic risk factors on maximal alcohol consumption rose rapidly in early to mid-adolescence, peaked at ages 15–17 years and then declined slowly. Alcohol-specific genetic risk factors increased slowly in influence through mid-adulthood. We detected robust evidence for environmental moderation of genetic effects on alcohol consumption that was more pronounced in early and mid-adolescence than in later periods. Alcohol availability, peer deviance and low prosocial behaviors showing the strongest moderation effects. More interactions with environmental risk factors were seen for the non-specific externalizing disorder risk than for specific genetic risk for AUDs. Conclusions The impact of specific and non-specific genetic influences on alcohol consumption have different development trajectories. Genetic effects on alcohol use are more pronounced when social constraints are minimized (e.g. low prosocial behaviors or parental monitoring) or when the environment permits easy access to alcohol and/or encourages its use (e.g. high alcohol availability or peer deviance). Gene–environment interactions influencing alcohol intake may be more robust at younger ages, indicating greater plasticity of genetic influences early in the development of drinking patterns. PMID:20942993

  19. Flashpoint prediction for ternary mixtures of alcohols with water for CFD simulation of unsteady flame propagation during explosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skřínský, Jan; Vereš, Ján; Ševčíková, Silvie Petránková

    2016-06-01

    Aqueous solutions of binary and ternary mixtures of alcohols are of considerable interest for a wide range of scientists and technologists. Simple dimensionless experimental formulae based on rational reciprocal and polynomial functions are proposed for correlation of the flashpoint data of binary mixtures of two components. The formulae are based on data obtained from flashpoint experiments and predictions. The main results are the derived experimental flashpoint values for ternary mixtures of two aqueous-organic solutions and the model prediction of maximum explosion pressure values for the studied mixtures. Potential application for the results concerns the assessment of fire and explosion hazards, and the development of inherently safer designs for chemical processes containing binary and ternary partially miscible mixtures of an aqueous-organic system. The goal of this article is to present the results of modelling using these standard models and to demonstrate its importance in the area of CFD simulation.

  20. Predicting Short-term Mortality and Long-term Survival of Hospitalized U.S. Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A.; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W.; Shah, Jessica P.

    2014-01-01

    Background No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short- and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a U.S. population. Methods We reviewed electronic records for patients with ALD admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the prior DF threshold of > 32. Admission and theoretical peak scores using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were calculated. Analysis models compared 5 different scoring systems. Results INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r2 = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of data showed that survival at 28 days was significantly associated with admission values for white blood cell count (p = 0.006), a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status and creatinine (p < 0.001) as well as an elevated ammonia result within 2 days of admission (p = 0.006). When peak values for MELD were included, they were the most significant predictor of short-term mortality (p < 0.001) followed by INRdf (p = 0.006 Conclusion On admission, 2 scoring systems that identify a subset of patients with severe alcoholic liver disease are able to predict > 50% mortality at 4 weeks as well as > 80% mortality at 6 months without specific treatment. PMID:24445730

  1. Using genetic information from candidate gene and genome-wide association studies in risk prediction for alcohol dependence

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Jia; Aliev, Fazil; Webb, Bradley T; Kendler, Kenneth S; Williamson, Vernell S; Edenberg, Howard J; Agrawal, Arpana; Kos, Mark Z; Almasy, Laura; Nurnberger, John I; Schuckit, Marc A; Kramer, John R; Rice, John P; Kuperman, Samuel; Goate, Alison M; Tischfield, Jay A; Porjesz, Bernice; Dick, Danielle M

    2013-01-01

    Family-based and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of alcohol dependence (AD) have reported numerous associated variants. The clinical validity of these variants for predicting AD compared to family history information has not been reported. Using the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) and the Study of Addiction: Genes and Environment (SAGE) GWAS samples, we examined the aggregate impact of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on risk prediction. We created genetic sum scores by adding risk alleles associated in discovery samples, and then tested the scores for their ability to discriminate between cases and controls in validation samples. Genetic sum scores were assessed separately for SNPs associated with AD in candidate gene studies and SNPs from GWAS analyses that met varying p-value thresholds. Candidate gene sum scores did not exhibit significant predictive accuracy. Family history was a better classifier of case-control status, with a significant area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.686 in COGA and 0.614 in SAGE. SNPs that met less stringent p-value thresholds of 0.01 to 0.50 in GWAS analyses yielded significant AUC estimates, ranging from mean estimates of 0.549 for SNPs with p < 0.01 to 0.565 for SNPs with p < 0.50. This study suggests that SNPs currently have limited clinical utility, but there is potential for enhanced predictive ability with better understanding of the large number of variants that might contribute to risk. PMID:23362995

  2. Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse

    MedlinePlus

    ... This means that their drinking causes distress and harm. It includes alcoholism and alcohol abuse. Alcoholism, or ... brain, and other organs. Drinking during pregnancy can harm your baby. Alcohol also increases the risk of ...

  3. Diffuse-light absorption spectroscopy for beer classification and prediction of alcoholic content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciaccheri, L.; Samano Baca, E. E.; Russo, M. T.; Ottevaere, H.; Thienpont, H.; Mignani, A. G.

    2012-04-01

    A miscellaneous of 86 beers was characterized by non-destructive, fast and reagent-free optical measurements. Diffuselight absorption spectroscopy performed in the visible and near-infrared bands was used to gather a turbidity-free spectroscopic information. Also, conventional turbidity and refractive index measurements were added for completing the optical characterization. The near-infrared spectra provided a straightforward turbidity-free assessment of the alcoholic strength. Then, the entire optical data set was processed by means of multivariate analysis looking for a beer clustering according to the own character and identity. Good results were achieved, indicating that optical methods can be successfully used for beer authentication.

  4. Serum adipokines might predict liver histology findings in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Jamali, Raika; Razavizade, Mohsen; Arj, Abbas; Aarabi, Mohammad Hossein

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To assess significance of serum adipokines to determine the histological severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: Patients with persistent elevation in serum aminotransferase levels and well-defined characteristics of fatty liver at ultrasound were enrolled. Individuals with a history of alcohol consumption, hepatotoxic medication, viral hepatitis or known liver disease were excluded. Liver biopsy was performed to confirm non-alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD). The degrees of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis were determined based on the non-alcoholic fatty liver activity score (NAS) by a single expert pathologist. Patients with a NAS of five or higher were considered to have steatohepatitis. Those with a NAS of two or lower were defined as simple fatty liver. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the independent association of adipokines with histological findings. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to determine cut-off values of serum adipokines to discriminate the grades of liver steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis. RESULTS: Fifty-four participants aged 37.02 ± 9.82 were enrolled in the study. Higher serum levels of visfatin, IL-8, TNF-α levels were associated independently with steatosis grade of more than 33% [β = 1.08 (95%CI: 1.03-1.14), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.008-1.07), 1.04 (95%CI: 1.004-1.08), P < 0.05]. Elevated serum IL-6 and IL-8 levels were associated independently with advanced lobular inflammation [β = 1.4 (95%CI: 1.09-1.8), 1.07 (95%CI: 1.003-1.15), P < 0.05]. Similarly, higher TNF-α, resistin, and hepcidin levels were associated independently with advanced fibrosis stage [β = 1.06 (95%CI: 1.002-1.12), 19.86 (95%CI: 2.79-141.19), 560.72 (95%CI: 5.98-5255.33), P < 0.05]. Serum IL-8 and TNF-α values were associated independently with the NAS score, considering a NAS score of 5 as the reference value [β = 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01-1.1), 1.13 (95%CI: 1.04-1.22), P < 0

  5. The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers.

    PubMed

    Marques, Paul R; Tippetts, A Scott; Voas, Robert B

    2003-09-01

    This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking

  6. The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers.

    PubMed

    Marques, Paul R; Tippetts, A Scott; Voas, Robert B

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression (Marques et al., 2003) show that BAC elevations > .02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p < .0001) than even prior DUI (p < .006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec; .04

  7. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  8. Predicting utility of a model for end stage liver disease in alcoholic liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Soultati, Aspasia S; Dourakis, Spyridon P; Alexopoulou, Alexandra; Deutsch, Melanie; Vasilieva, Larissa; Archimandritis, Athanasios J

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To validate the statistic utility of both the Maddrey Discriminant Function score and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as predictors of short term (30 d and 90 d) mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis and to assess prognostic factors among clinical characteristics and laboratory variables of patients with alcoholic hepatitis. METHODS: Thirty-four patients with the diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis admitted to Hippokration University Hospital of Athens from 2000 to 2005 were assessed in the current retrospective study and a statistical analysis was conducted. RESULTS: 30- and 90-d mortality rates were reported at 5.9% (2/34) and 14.7% (5/34), respectively. Significant correlation was demonstrated for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (P30 = 0.094, P90 = 0.046) and the Maddrey Discriminant Function score (P30 = 0.033, P90 = 0.038) with 30- and 90-d mortality whereas a significant association was also established for alanine aminotransferase (P = 0.057), fibrin degradation products (P = 0.048) and C-reactive protein (P = 0.067) with 90-d mortality. For 30-d mortality the Area Under the Curve was 0.969 (95%CI: 0.902-1.036, P = 0.028) for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and 0.984 (95%CI: 0.942-1.027, P = 0.023) for the Maddrey Discriminant Function score with the optimal cut off point of 30.5 (sensitivity 1, specificity 0.937) and 108.68 (sensitivity 1, specificity 0.969), respectively. Accordingly, for 90-d mortality the Area Under the Curve was 0.762 (95%CI: 0.559-0.965, P = 0.065) for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and 0.752 (95%CI: 0.465-1.038, P = 0.076) for the Maddrey Discriminant Function score with the optimal cut off point of 19 (sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.6) and 92 (sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.946), respectively. The observed Kaplan Meier survival rates for different score-categories were compared with log-rank tests and higher score values were correlated with a lower survival. CONCLUSION: Equivalency of

  9. The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

    2011-06-01

    Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

  10. Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Tabak, Benjamin M.; Werneck, Filipe K.

    2009-04-01

    In this study we analyze Brazilian stock prices to detect the development of bubbles and crashes in individual stocks using a log-periodic equation. We implement a genetic algorithm to calibrate the parameters of the model and we test the methodology for the most liquid stocks traded on the Brazilian Stock Market (Bovespa). In order to evaluate whether this approach is useful we employ nonparametric statistics and test whether returns after the predicted crash are negative and lower than returns before the crash. Empirical results are consistent with the prediction hypothesis, e.g., the method applied can be used to forecast the end of asset bubbles or large corrections in stock prices.

  11. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    PubMed

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. PMID:24837965

  12. Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-12-01

    Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

  13. The string prediction models as invariants of time series in the forex market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincak, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we apply a new approach of string theory to the real financial market. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support vector machines (SVM) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on an artificial and a financial time series. A brief overview of the results and analysis is given. The first model is based on the correlation function as invariant and the second one is an application based on the deviations from the closed string/pattern form (PMBCS). We found the difference between these two approaches. The first model cannot predict the behavior of the forex market with good efficiency in comparison with the second one which is, in addition, able to make relevant profit per year. The presented string models could be useful for portfolio creation and financial risk management in the banking sector as well as for a nonlinear statistical approach to data optimization.

  14. Prediction-Market-Based Quantification of Climate Change Consensus and Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2012-12-01

    Intrade is an online trading exchange that includes climate prediction markets. One such family of contracts can be described as "Global temperature anomaly for 2012 to be greater than x °C or more," where the figure x ranges in increments of .05 from .30 to 1.10 (relative to the 1951-1980 base period), based on data published by NASA GISS. Each market will settle at 10.00 if the published global temperature anomaly for 2012 is equal to or greater than x, and will otherwise settle at 0.00. Similar contracts will be available for 2013. Global warming hypotheses can be cast as probabilistic predictions for future temperatures. The first modern such climate prediction is that of Broecker (1975), whose temperatures are easily separable from his CO2 growth scenario—which he overestimated—by interpolating his table of temperature as a function of CO2 concentration and projecting the current trend into the near future. For the current concentration of 395 ppm, Broecker's equilibrium temperature anomaly prediction relative to pre-industrial is 1.05 °C, or about 0.75 °C relative to the GISS base period. His neglect of lag in response to the changes in radiative forcing was partially compensated by his low sensitivity of 2.4 °C, leading to a slight overestimate. Simple linear extrapolation of the current trend since 1975 yields an estimate of .65 ± .09 °C (net warming of .95 °C) for anthropogenic global warming with a normal distribution of random natural variability. To evaluate an extreme case, we can estimate the prediction Broecker would have made if he had used the Lindzen & Choi (2009) climate sensitivity of 0.5 °C. The net post-industrial warming by 2012 would have been 0.21 °C, for an expected change of -0.09 from the GISS base period. This is the temperature to which the Earth would be expected to revert if the observed warming since the 19th century was merely due to random natural variability that coincidentally mimicked Broecker's anthropogenic

  15. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  16. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  17. A Market-Basket Approach to Predict the Acute Aquatic Toxicity of Munitions and Energetic Materials.

    PubMed

    Burgoon, Lyle D

    2016-06-01

    An ongoing challenge in chemical production, including the production of insensitive munitions and energetics, is the ability to make predictions about potential environmental hazards early in the process. To address this challenge, a quantitative structure activity relationship model was developed to predict acute fathead minnow toxicity of insensitive munitions and energetic materials. Computational predictive toxicology models like this one may be used to identify and prioritize environmentally safer materials early in their development. The developed model is based on the Apriori market-basket/frequent itemset mining approach to identify probabilistic prediction rules using chemical atom-pairs and the lethality data for 57 compounds from a fathead minnow acute toxicity assay. Lethality data were discretized into four categories based on the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals. Apriori identified toxicophores for categories two and three. The model classified 32 of the 57 compounds correctly, with a fivefold cross-validation classification rate of 74 %. A structure-based surrogate approach classified the remaining 25 chemicals correctly at 48 %. This result is unsurprising as these 25 chemicals were fairly unique within the larger set. PMID:27091326

  18. Alcohol Use Predicts Sexual Decision-Making: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Literature.

    PubMed

    Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J; Carey, Kate B; Cunningham, Karlene; Johnson, Blair T; Carey, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol is associated with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections through increased sexual risk-taking behavior. Establishing a causal link between alcohol and sexual behavior has been challenging due to methodological limitations (e.g., reliance on cross-sectional designs). Experimental methods can be used to establish causality. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of alcohol consumption on unprotected sex intentions. We searched electronic bibliographic databases for records with relevant keywords; 26 manuscripts (k = 30 studies) met inclusion criteria. Results indicate that alcohol consumption is associated with greater intentions to engage in unprotected sex (d +s = 0.24, 0.35). The effect of alcohol on unprotected sex intentions was greater when sexual arousal was heightened. Alcohol consumption is causally linked to theoretical antecedents of sexual risk behavior, consistent with the alcohol myopia model. Addressing alcohol consumption as a determinant of unprotected sex intentions may lead to more effective HIV interventions. PMID:26080689

  19. Tobacco and alcohol billboards in 50 Chicago neighborhoods: market segmentation to sell dangerous products to the poor.

    PubMed

    Hackbarth, D P; Silvestri, B; Cosper, W

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a study of billboard advertising of tobacco and alcohol products in the city of Chicago. All billboards were counted and their advertising themes noted. These data were matched with information on population and race from the 1990 census in order to document which geographic areas of the city, if any, had excess tobacco or alcohol billboards. The data revealed that minority wards were burdened with three times as many tobacco billboards and five times as many alcohol billboards when compared to white wards. The findings are congruent with studies conducted in other urban areas, which demonstrate a consistent pattern of tobacco and alcohol advertisers targeting poor and minority neighborhoods for outdoor advertising of their dangerous products. Chicago legislative initiatives based on the billboard study are described. PMID:7560056

  20. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appel, David L.

    This booklet suggests ways in which institutions--Catholic schools in particular--can move beyond public relations and advertising to engage in the broader arena of marketing with its focus on consumer satisfaction. The first of the book's three chapters reviews the concept of marketing, providing definitions of key terms, clarification of…

  1. Fatty liver index vs waist circumference for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Motamed, Nima; Sohrabi, Masoudreza; Ajdarkosh, Hossein; Hemmasi, Gholamreza; Maadi, Mansooreh; Sayeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Pirzad, Reza; Abedi, Khadijeh; Aghapour, Sivil; Fallahnezhad, Mojtaba; Zamani, Farhad

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To determine the discriminatory performance of fatty liver index (FLI) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: The data of 5052 subjects aged over 18 years were analyzed. FLI was calculated from body mass index, waist circumference (WC), triglyceride, and gamma glutamyl transferase data. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between FLI and NAFLD. The discriminatory performance of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curves (AUCs) and related confidence intervals were estimated. Optimal cutoff points of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD were determined based on the maximum values of Youden’s index. RESULTS: The mean age of men and women in the study population were 44.8 ± 16.8 and 43.78 ± 15.43, respectively (P = 0.0216). The prevalence of NAFLD was 40.1% in men and 44.2% in women (P < 0.0017). FLI was strongly associated with NAFLD, so that even a one unit increase in FLI increased the chance of developing NAFLD by 5.8% (OR = 1.058, 95%CI: 1.054-1.063, P < 0.0001). Although FLI showed good performance in the diagnosis of NAFLD (AUC = 0.8656 (95%CI: 0.8548-0.8764), there was no significant difference with regards to WC (AUC = 0.8533, 95%CI: 0.8419-0.8646). The performance of FLI was not significantly different between men (AUC = 0.8648, 95%CI: 0.8505-0.8791) and women (AUC = 0.8682, 95%CI: 0.8513-0.8851). The highest performance with regards to age was related to the 18-39 age group (AUC = 0.8930, 95%CI: 0.8766-0.9093). The optimal cutoff points of FLI were 46.9 in men (sensitivity = 0.8242, specificity = 0.7687, Youden’s index = 0.5929) and 53.8 in women (sensitivity = 0.8233, specificity = 0.7655, Youden’s index = 0.5888). CONCLUSION: Although FLI had acceptable discriminatory power in the diagnosis of NAFLD, WC was a simpler and more accessible index with a similar performance. PMID:26973398

  2. A comparison of the concurrent and predictive validity of three measures of readiness to change alcohol use in a clinical sample of adolescents.

    PubMed

    Maisto, Stephen A; Krenek, Marketa; Chung, Tammy; Martin, Christopher S; Clark, Duncan; Cornelius, Jack

    2011-12-01

    The authors compared 3 measures of readiness to change alcohol use commonly used in clinical research and practice with adolescents: the Readiness Ruler, the SOCRATES (subscales of Recognition and Taking Steps), and a Staging Algorithm. The analysis sample consisted of 161 male and female adolescents presenting for intensive outpatient alcohol-abuse treatment who reported current alcohol use at the initial assessment. Evidence for concurrent validity was assessed by computing simple correlations of each readiness measure with the other 3 and of each readiness measure with drinking behavior (percentage of days abstinent [PDA] and drinks per drinking day [DDD], respectively, in the last 30 days) at the start of treatment and at the 6-month follow-up assessment. Evidence for predictive validity was based on percentage of independent variance accounted for by each of the readiness measures in predicting drinking behavior at 6 months from the start of treatment, and then in predicting drinking behavior at 12 months from the readiness assessment at 6 months. The results showed that all but Recognition had good concurrent validity, the Readiness Ruler score showed consistent evidence for predictive validity, and the Staging Algorithm showed good predictive validity for DDD at 6 and 12 months. For the 82 participants with an alcohol-use disorder diagnosis, the findings for the Ruler and Recognition were similar, but the Staging Algorithm had poorer prediction of DDD at 12 months, and Taking Steps was a better predictor of 6- and 12-month PDA and DDD. Research and clinical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:21767028

  3. Declining Negative Consequences Related to Alcohol Misuse among Students Exposed to a Social Norms Marketing Intervention on a College Campus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, James; Perkins, H. Wesley; Bauerle, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The authors examined whether alcohol-related negative consequences decreased among students exposed to an intervention. Participants: Beginning in 1999, approximately 2,500 randomly selected undergraduates from a 4-year US university annually participated in a Web-based survey over 6 years. Methods: The educational intervention used…

  4. Peer Network Drinking Predicts Increased Alcohol Use From Adolescence to Early Adulthood After Controlling for Genetic and Shared Environmental Selection

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Jennifer E.; Emery, Robert E.; Turkheimer, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Research consistently links adolescents' and young adults' drinking with their peers' alcohol intake. In interpreting this correlation, 2 essential questions are often overlooked. First, which peers are more important, best friends or broader social networks? Second, do peers cause increased drinking, or do young people select friends whose drinking habits match their own? The present study combines social network analyses with family (twin and sibling) designs to answer these questions via data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Analysis of peer nomination data from 134 schools (n = 82,629) and 1,846 twin and sibling pairs shows that peer network substance use predicts changes in drinking from adolescence into young adult life even after controlling for genetic and shared environmental selection, as well as best friend substance use. This effect was particularly strong for high-intensity friendships. Although the peer-adolescent drinking correlation is partially explained by selection, the present finding offers powerful evidence that peers also cause increased drinking. PMID:22390657

  5. Ecotoxicity quantitative structure-activity relationships for alcohol ethoxylate mixtures based on substance-specific toxicity predictions.

    PubMed

    Boeije, G M; Cano, M L; Marshall, S J; Belanger, S E; Van Compernolle, R; Dorn, P B; Gümbel, H; Toy, R; Wind, T

    2006-05-01

    Traditionally, ecotoxicity quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for alcohol ethoxylate (AE) surfactants have been developed by assigning the measured ecotoxicity for commercial products to the average structures (alkyl chain length and ethoxylate chain length) of these materials. Acute Daphnia magna toxicity tests for binary mixtures indicate that mixtures are more toxic than the individual AE substances corresponding with their average structures (due to the nonlinear relation of toxicity with structure). Consequently, the ecotoxicity value (expressed as effects concentration) attributed to the average structures that are used to develop the existing QSARs is expected to be too low. A new QSAR technique for complex substances, which interprets the mixture toxicity with regard to the "ethoxymers" distribution (i.e., the individual AE components) rather than the average structure, was developed. This new technique was then applied to develop new AE ecotoxicity QSARs for invertebrates, fish, and mesocosms. Despite the higher complexity, the fit and accuracy of the new QSARs are at least as good as those for the existing QSARs based on the same data set. As expected from typical ethoxymer distributions of commercial AEs, the new QSAR generally predicts less toxicity than the QSARs based on average structure. PMID:16256196

  6. PER1 rs3027172 Genotype Interacts with Early Life Stress to Predict Problematic Alcohol Use, but Not Reward-Related Ventral Striatum Activity

    PubMed Central

    Baranger, David A. A.; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A.; Carey, Caitlin E.; Corral-Frías, Nadia S.; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R.; Bogdan, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929

  7. PER1 rs3027172 Genotype Interacts with Early Life Stress to Predict Problematic Alcohol Use, but Not Reward-Related Ventral Striatum Activity.

    PubMed

    Baranger, David A A; Ifrah, Chloé; Prather, Aric A; Carey, Caitlin E; Corral-Frías, Nadia S; Drabant Conley, Emily; Hariri, Ahmad R; Bogdan, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that the circadian and stress regulatory systems contribute to alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk, which may partially arise through effects on reward-related neural function. The C allele of the PER1 rs3027172 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reduces PER1 expression in cells incubated with cortisol and has been associated with increased risk for adult AUD and problematic drinking among adolescents exposed to high levels of familial psychosocial adversity. Using data from undergraduate students who completed the ongoing Duke Neurogenetics Study (DNS) (n = 665), we tested whether exposure to early life stress (ELS; Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) moderates the association between rs3027172 genotype and later problematic alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) as well as ventral striatum (VS) reactivity to reward (card-guessing task while functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired). Initial analyses found that PER1 rs3027172 genotype interacted with ELS to predict both problematic drinking and VS reactivity; minor C allele carriers, who were also exposed to elevated ELS reported greater problematic drinking and exhibited greater ventral striatum reactivity to reward-related stimuli. When gene × covariate and environment × covariate interactions were controlled for, the interaction predicting problematic alcohol use remained significant (p < 0.05, corrected) while the interaction predicting VS reactivity was no longer significant. These results extend our understanding of relationships between PER1 genotype, ELS, and problematic alcohol use, and serve as a cautionary tale on the importance of controlling for potential confounders in studies of moderation including gene × environment interactions. PMID:27065929

  8. Self-Efficacy for Refusal Mediated by Outcome Expectancies in the Prediction of Alcohol-Dependence amongst Young Adults.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Robert J.; Connor, Jason P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

    1998-01-01

    Examines the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy in the production of alcohol dependence and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. Results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking-related…

  9. Predicting Vocational Rehabilitation Outcomes for People with Alcohol Abuse/Dependence: An Application of Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brickham, Dana M.

    2012-01-01

    People with alcohol abuse/dependence disabilities are often faced with a complex recovery process due to the exacerbating and chronic aspects of their condition. Vocational rehabilitation for people with alcohol abuse/dependence can help individuals access and maintain employment, and through employment can enhance physical and psychological…

  10. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  11. Alcohol Alert

    MedlinePlus

    ... main content National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) Main Menu Search Search form Search Alcohol & ... on a single aspect of alcohol abuse and alcoholism. Please click on the desired publication for full ...

  12. Rationalization of the pKa values of alcohols and thiols using atomic charge descriptors and its application to the prediction of amino acid pKa's.

    PubMed

    Ugur, Ilke; Marion, Antoine; Parant, Stéphane; Jensen, Jan H; Monard, Gerald

    2014-08-25

    In a first step toward the development of an efficient and accurate protocol to estimate amino acids' pKa's in proteins, we present in this work how to reproduce the pKa's of alcohol and thiol based residues (namely tyrosine, serine, and cysteine) in aqueous solution from the knowledge of the experimental pKa's of phenols, alcohols, and thiols. Our protocol is based on the linear relationship between computed atomic charges of the anionic form of the molecules (being either phenolates, alkoxides, or thiolates) and their respective experimental pKa values. It is tested with different environment approaches (gas phase or continuum solvent-based approaches), with five distinct atomic charge models (Mulliken, Löwdin, NPA, Merz-Kollman, and CHelpG), and with nine different DFT functionals combined with 16 different basis sets. Moreover, the capability of semiempirical methods (AM1, RM1, PM3, and PM6) to also predict pKa's of thiols, phenols, and alcohols is analyzed. From our benchmarks, the best combination to reproduce experimental pKa's is to compute NPA atomic charge using the CPCM model at the B3LYP/3-21G and M062X/6-311G levels for alcohols (R(2) = 0.995) and thiols (R(2) = 0.986), respectively. The applicability of the suggested protocol is tested with tyrosine and cysteine amino acids, and precise pKa predictions are obtained. The stability of the amino acid pKa's with respect to geometrical changes is also tested by MM-MD and DFT-MD calculations. Considering its strong accuracy and its high computational efficiency, these pKa prediction calculations using atomic charges indicate a promising method for predicting amino acids' pKa in a protein environment. PMID:25089727

  13. Predicting project environmental performance under market uncertainties: case study of oil sands coke.

    PubMed

    McKellar, Jennifer M; Bergerson, Joule A; Kettunen, Janne; MacLean, Heather L

    2013-06-01

    A method combining life cycle assessment (LCA) and real options analyses is developed to predict project environmental and financial performance over time, under market uncertainties and decision-making flexibility. The method is applied to examine alternative uses for oil sands coke, a carbonaceous byproduct of processing the unconventional petroleum found in northern Alberta, Canada. Under uncertainties in natural gas price and the imposition of a carbon price, our method identifies that selling the coke to China for electricity generation by integrated gasification combined cycle is likely to be financially preferred initially, but eventually hydrogen production in Alberta is likely to be preferred. Compared to the results of a previous study that used life cycle costing to identify the financially preferred alternative, the inclusion of real options analysis adds value as it accounts for flexibility in decision-making (e.g., to delay investment), increasing the project's expected net present value by 25% and decreasing the expected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. Different formulations of the carbon pricing policy or changes to the natural gas price forecast alter these findings. The combined LCA/real options method provides researchers and decision-makers with more comprehensive information than can be provided by either technique alone. PMID:23675646

  14. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  15. Confronting the Impact of Alcohol Labeling and Marketing on Native American Health and Culture. Hearing before the Select Committee on Children, Youth and Families. House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, Second Session.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families.

    A congressional hearing examined the effects of alcohol labeling and marketing on Native American health and culture. The focus of the hearing was on "Crazy Horse" malt liquor, a product named for the spiritual and political leader of the Native American Sioux. Following opening remarks by presiding committee chairwoman, Patricia Schroeder, the…

  16. Alcoholism, Alcohol, and Drugs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubin, Emanuel; Lieber, Charles S.

    1971-01-01

    Describes research on synergistic effects of alcohol and other drugs, particularly barbiturates. Proposes biochemical mechanisms to explain alcoholics' tolerance of other drugs when sober, and increased sensitivity when drunk. (AL)

  17. Life Course Trajectories of Labour Market Participation among Young Adults Who Experienced Severe Alcohol-Related Health Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Paljärvi, Tapio; Martikainen, Pekka; Pensola, Tiina; Leinonen, Taina; Herttua, Kimmo; Mäkelä, Pia

    2015-01-01

    Background Long-term employment trajectories of young problem drinkers are poorly understood. Methods We constructed retrospective labour market participation histories at ages 18–34 of 64 342 persons born in 1969–1982. Beginning from the year of each subject’s 18th birthday, we extracted information from the records of Statistics Finland on educational attainment, main type of economic activity, months in employment, and months in unemployment for a minimum of seven years (range 7–16 years). We used information on the timing of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in the same period to define problem drinkers with early onset limited course, early onset persistent course, and late onset problem drinking. Results Early onset limited course problem drinkers improved their employment considerably by age, whereas early onset persistent problem drinkers experienced a constant decline in their employment by age. From the age of 18 to 34, early onset persistent problem drinkers were in employment merely 12% of the time, in comparison with 39% among the early onset limited course problem drinkers, and 58% among the general population. Conclusions These results indicate that young adults who were retrospectively defined as having early onset persistent course problem drinking were extensively marginalized from the labour market early on during their life course, and that their employment trajectory was significantly worse compared to other problem drinkers. PMID:25938764

  18. Market Powers Predict Reciprocal Grooming in Golden Snub-Nosed Monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Song-Tao; Zhao, Da-Peng; Zhang, Peng; Huang, Kang; Li, Bao-Guo

    2012-01-01

    Social grooming is a common form of affiliative behavior in primates. Biological market theory suggests that grooming can be traded either for grooming or other social commodities and services. When no other services are exchanged, grooming is predicted to be approximately reciprocated within a dyad. In contrast, the amount of reciprocal grooming should decrease as other offered services increase. We studied grooming patterns between polygamous male and female in golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) from the Qinling Mountains of central China and found that about 29.7% of grooming bouts were reciprocated. However, the durations of grooming bouts offered and returned was asymmetrical within dyads. In bisexual dyads, more grooming was initiated by females than males, which became more pronounced as the number of females per one-male unit increased. The rate of copulation per day for each female was positively correlated with the total duration of grooming time females invested in males.. Females without an infant (non-mothers) directed more grooming towards females with an infant (mothers) and were significantly more likely to be non-reciprocated. There was a significant negative relationship between non-mother and mother grooming duration and the rate of infants per female in each one-male unit. High-ranking females also received more grooming from low-ranking females than vice versa. The rate of food-related aggressive interactions was per day for low-ranking females was negatively correlated with the duration of grooming that low-ranking females gave to high-ranking females. Our results showed that grooming reciprocation in R. roxellana was discrepancy. This investment-reciprocity rate could be explained by the exchange of other social services in lieu of grooming. PMID:22590611

  19. Alcohol expectancy changes over a 12-week cognitive-behavioral therapy program are predictive of treatment success.

    PubMed

    Young, Ross McD; Connor, Jason P; Feeney, Gerald F X

    2011-01-01

    This study examines if outcome expectancies (perceived consequences of engaging in certain behavior) and self-efficacy expectancies (confidence in personal capacity to regulate behavior) contribute to treatment outcome for alcohol dependence. Few clinical studies have examined these constructs. The Drinking Expectancy Profile (DEP), a psychometric measure of alcohol expectancy and drinking refusal self-efficacy, was administered to 298 alcohol-dependent patients (207 males) at assessment and on completion of a 12-week cognitive-behavioral therapy alcohol abstinence program. Baseline measures of expectancy and self-efficacy were not strong predictors of outcome. However, for the 164 patients who completed treatment, all alcohol expectancy and self-efficacy factors of the DEP showed change over time. The DEP scores approximated community norms at the end of treatment. Discriminant analysis indicated that change in social pressure drinking refusal self-efficacy, sexual enhancement expectancies, and assertion expectancies successfully discriminated those who successfully completed treatment from those who did not. Future research should examine the basis of expectancies related to social functioning as a possible mechanism of treatment response and a means to enhance treatment outcome. PMID:20864294

  20. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G R William; Robinson, Timothy P; Tatem, Andrew J; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Farrar, Jeremy J; Hay, Simon I; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-01-01

    Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. PMID:24937647

  1. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, Marius; Golding, Nick; Zhou, Hang; Wint, G. R. William; Robinson, Timothy P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Sheng; Jiang, Hui; Guo, Danhuai; Huang, Zhi; Messina, Jane P.; Xiao, Xiangming; Linard, Catherine; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martin, Vincent; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Hay, Simon I.; Yu, Hongjie

    2014-01-01

    Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. PMID:24937647

  2. The derivation of a chiral substituent code for secondary alcohols and its application to the prediction of enantioselectivity.

    PubMed

    Suo, Jing-Jie; Zhang, Qing-You; Li, Jing-Ya; Zhou, Yan-Mei; Xu, Lu

    2013-06-01

    A chiral substituent code was proposed based on the features of secondary alcohols, in which a chiral center is attached to two substituents in addition to OH and H substituents. The new chirality code, which was generated by predefining positional information of four substituents attached to stereocenter, was applied to two datasets composed of secondary alcohols as the enantioselective products of asymmetric reactions. In the first dataset, the chemical reaction was catalyzed by a biocatalyst, lipase from Candida rugosa. The catalyst for the second dataset was (-)-diisopinocampheylchloroborane. The structure-enantioselectivity relationship models were constructed using random forests with the chiral substituent code as the input. The resulting models were assessed both in terms of single enantiomers and pairs of enantiomers. Satisfactory results were obtained for both datasets. Although the chiral substituent code was specifically developed for secondary alcohols, it can easily be extended to represent chiral compounds possessing a specific chiral center bonded to two variable substituents. PMID:23666031

  3. Predicting alcohol use across adolescence: Relative strength of individual, family, peer, and contextual risk and protective factors

    PubMed Central

    Cleveland, Michael J.; Feinberg, Mark E.; Jones, Damon E.

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined developmental changes in the relative influence of risk and protective factors (RPFs) across individual, family, peer, school, and community domains on adolescent alcohol use. Using longitudinal data from two independent samples, multivariate cross-lagged models were used to estimate the unique influence of each RPF on subsequent changes in recent alcohol use between early to late adolescence. The results supported the hypothesis that the influence of Individual Risk would increase during this developmental period. However, less consistent evidence was found concerning developmental changes among the other domains. Whereas the influence arising from Family Protection diminished during adolescence, the influence of Family Risk, School Protection, and Community Protection did not vary. The influence of Peer Risk showed a nonlinear pattern across adolescence, peaking during the middle adolescent years. The results of this study support a developmental approach to adolescent alcohol use and emphasize the need for prevention strategies that account for these developmental changes. PMID:22390336

  4. DETERMINATION OF GENOTYPE COMBINATIONS THAT CAN PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE TREATMENT OF ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE USING THE 5-HT3 ANTAGONIST ONDANSETRON

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Bankole A.; Seneviratne, Chamindi; Wang, Xin-Qun; Ait-Daoud, Nassima; Li, Ming D.

    2013-01-01

    Objective Previously, we reported that the 5′-HTTLPR-LL and rs1042173-TT (SLC6A4-LL/TT) genotypes in the serotonin transporter gene predicted a significant reduction in the severity of alcohol consumption among alcoholics receiving the 5-HT3 antagonist ondansetron. In this study, we explored additional markers of ondansetron treatment response in alcoholics by examining polymorphisms in the HTR3A and HTR3B genes, which regulate directly the function and binding of 5-HT3 receptors to ondansetron. Method We genotyped 1 rare and 18 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms in HTR3A and HTR3B in the same sample that we had genotyped for SLC6A4-LL/TT in the previous randomized, double-blind, 11-week clinical trial. Participants were 283 European Americans who received oral ondansetron (4 μg/kg twice daily) or placebo along with weekly cognitive behavioral therapy. Associations of individual and combined genotypes with treatment response on drinking outcomes were analyzed. Results Individuals carrying one or more of genotypes rs1150226-AG and rs1176713-GG in HTR3A and rs17614942-AC in HTR3B showed a significant overall mean difference between ondansetron and placebo in drinks per drinking day (−2.50; effect size (ES)=0.867), percentage of heavy drinking days (−20.58%; ES=0.780), and percentage of days abstinent (18.18%; ES=0.683). Combining these HTR3A/HTR3B and SLC6A4-LL/TT genotypes increased the target cohort from approaching 20% (identified in our previous study) to 34%. Conclusions We present initial evidence suggesting that a combined 5-marker genotype panel can be used to predict the outcome of treatment of alcohol dependence with ondansetron. Additional, larger pharmacogenetic studies would help to validate our results. PMID:23897038

  5. Increased mesolimbic cue-reactivity in carriers of the mu-opioid-receptor gene OPRM1 A118G polymorphism predicts drinking outcome: a functional imaging study in alcohol dependent subjects.

    PubMed

    Bach, Patrick; Vollsta Dt-Klein, Sabine; Kirsch, Martina; Hoffmann, Sabine; Jorde, Anne; Frank, Josef; Charlet, Katrin; Beck, Anne; Heinz, Andreas; Walter, Henrik; Sommer, Wolfgang H; Spanagel, Rainer; Rietschel, Marcella; Kiefer, Falk

    2015-08-01

    The endogenous opioid system is involved in the pathophysiology of alcohol-use disorders. Genetic variants of the opioid system alter neural and behavioral responses to alcohol. In particular, a single nucleotide polymorphism rs1799971 (A118G) in the mu-opioid receptor gene (OPRM1) is suggested to modulate alcohol-related phenotypes and neural response in the mesocorticolimbic dopaminergic system. Little is known about the clinical implications of these changes. The current study investigated the relationship of genotype effects on subjective and neural responses to alcohol cues and relapse in a sample of abstinent alcohol-dependent patients. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to investigate alcohol cue-reactivity and drinking outcome of 81 abstinent alcohol-dependent patients. G-allele carriers displayed increased fMRI cue-reactivity in the left dorsal striatum and bilateral insulae. Neural responses to alcohol cues in these brain regions correlated positively with subjective craving for alcohol and positive expectations of alcohol׳s effects. Moreover, alcohol cue-reactivity in the left dorsal striatum predicted time to first severe relapse. Current results show that alcohol-dependent G-allele carriers׳ increased cue-reactivity is associated with an increased relapse risk. This suggests that genotype effects on cue-reactivity might link the OPRM1 A118G risk allele with an increased relapse risk that was reported in earlier studies. From a clinical perspective, risk-allele carriers might benefit from treatments, such as neuro-feedback or extinction-based therapy that are suggested to reduce mesolimbic reactivity. PMID:25937240

  6. Alcoholism - resources

    MedlinePlus

    Resources - alcoholism ... The following organizations are good resources for information on alcoholism : Alcoholics Anonymous -- www.aa.org Al-Anon/Alateen -- www.al-anon.org/home National Institute on Alcohol ...

  7. Alcohol Alert

    MedlinePlus

    ... Us You are here Home » Alcohol Alert Alcohol Alert The NIAAA Alcohol Alert is a quarterly bulletin that disseminates important research ... text. To order single copies of select Alcohol Alerts, see ordering Information . To view publications in PDF ...

  8. Alcoholic neuropathy

    MedlinePlus

    Neuropathy - alcoholic; Alcoholic polyneuropathy ... The exact cause of alcoholic neuropathy is unknown. It likely includes both a direct poisoning of the nerve by the alcohol and the effect of poor nutrition ...

  9. Alcoholic ketoacidosis

    MedlinePlus

    Ketoacidosis - alcoholic ... Alcoholic ketoacidosis is caused by very heavy alcohol use. It most often occurs in a malnourished person ... Symptoms of alcoholic ketoacidosis include: Nausea and vomiting ... Changed level of alertness, which may lead to coma Confusion ...

  10. Alcohol Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... raquo Alcohol Facts Alcohol Facts Listen Drinks like beer, malt liquor, wine, and hard liquor contain alcohol. Alcohol is the ingredient that gets you drunk. Hard liquor—such as whiskey, rum, or gin—has more ...