Alcohol marketing in televised international football: frequency analysis.

PubMed

Adams, Jean; Coleman, James; White, Martin

2014-05-20

Alcohol marketing includes sponsorship of individuals, organisations and sporting events. Football (soccer) is one of the most popular spectator sports worldwide. No previous studies have quantified the frequency of alcohol marketing in a high profile international football tournament. The aims were to determine: the frequency and nature of visual references to alcohol in a representative sample of EURO2012 matches broadcast in the UK; and if frequency or nature varied between matches broadcast on public service and commercial channels, or between matches that did and did not feature England. Eight matches selected by stratified random sampling were recorded. All visual references to alcohol were identified using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. 1846 visual references to alcohol were identified over 1487 minutes of broadcast--an average of 1.24 references per minute. The mean number of references per minute was higher in matches that did vs did not feature England (p = 0.004), but did not differ between matches broadcast on public service vs commercial channels (p = 0.92). The frequency of visual references to alcohol was universally high and higher in matches featuring the only UK home team--England--suggesting that there may be targeting of particularly highly viewed matches. References were embedded in broadcasts, and not particular to commercial channels including paid-for advertising. New UK codes-of-conduct on alcohol marketing at sporting events will not reduce the level of marketing reported here.

Intoxigenic digital spaces? Youth, social networking sites and alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Griffiths, Richard; Casswell, Sally

2010-09-01

To examine how young people in New Zealand engage with alcohol and reproduce alcohol marketing messages and alcohol-related branding in 'Bebo', a popular social networking site (SNS) on the Internet. Data are drawn from information posted on approximately 150 Bebo Web pages and analysed by way of textual analysis and cyberspace ethnography. Social networking sites, such as Bebo, provide young people with a digital space in which to share a range of alcohol marketing messages via peer-to-peer transmission. Bebo also enables youth to communicate to one another how they consume alcohol and their views of alcohol marketing messages. The information being shared by young people who use Bebo is openly provided in the form of personal information, forum comments, digital photographs and answering quizzes about their engagement with alcohol. Through this sharing of information in the digital Internet environment, young people are creating 'intoxigenic social identities' as well as 'intoxigenic digital spaces' that further contribute towards the normalisation of youth consumption of alcohol. A better understanding of how youth are using the Internet to share their experiences with alcohol and engagement with alcohol-related messages is crucial to public health research as alcohol marketing practices rapidly evolve.

Culture clash: alcohol marketing and public health aspirations.

PubMed

Munro, Geoffrey; de Wever, Johanna

2008-03-01

It is of no coincidence that a number of recent Harm Reduction Digests have addressed the issue of the reduction of alcohol-related harm. Despite the dominant focus on illicit drug use in the popular discourse, alcohol remains Australia's number one drug problem, as it is in many other developed countries. In this Digest Munro and de Wever use the 'four Ps' of marketing: product, price, place and promotion, to critique the two decades industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing. They conclude that if we are going to develop policies which effectively change Australian drinking culture to reduce alcohol-related harm, we need first to accept that the alcohol industry and the health field have separate and conflicting interests.

Current status of alcohol marketing policy--an urgent challenge for global governance.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally

2012-03-01

To review research literature and available information on the extent and impacts of marketing, current policy response and the interests engaged in the policy debate in order to inform recommendations for policy change on alcohol marketing. Relevant literature, including systematic reviews and publicly available information (websites and participant observation) is reviewed and synthesized. Alcohol marketing has expanded markedly in the past 50 years and, while there remains uncertainty about the impact across the population, there is now clear evidence of its impact on the consumption of young people. Few countries have effective policy in place restricting alcohol marketing, and there is a lack of an international response to alcohol marketing which crosses national boundaries. The protection of alcohol marketing has been a major focus for vested interest groups and this has affected governmental response at national and international levels. There has been a lack of non-governmental organization engagement. The policy response to tobacco marketing provides a clear contrast to that of alcohol marketing policy and provides a model for alcohol marketing policy. The global exposure of young people to alcohol marketing requires an urgent policy response. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provides an appropriate model for global governance to control alcohol marketing. There are extant examples of national level legislation achieving comprehensive bans with France's Loi Evin providing a feasible model. Resources from philanthropic organizations to allow non-governmental organization engagement are urgently required, as is engagement by the governmental sector independent of commercial influence. © 2012 The Author, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The association between exposure to social media alcohol marketing and youth alcohol use behaviors in India and Australia.

PubMed

Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

2018-06-13

Alcohol marketing on social networking sites (SNS) is associated with alcohol use among young people. Alcohol companies adapt their online marketing content to specific national contexts and responses to such content differ by national settings. However, there exists very little academic work comparing the association between alcohol marketing on SNS and alcohol use among young people in different national settings and across different SNS. Therefore, we aimed to extend the limited existing work by investigating and comparing the association between self-reported exposure to alcohol marketing on three leading SNS (Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter) and alcohol use among young people in diverse national contexts (India and Australia). Cross-sectional, self-report data were obtained from a convenience sample of 631 respondents (330 in India; 301 in Australia) aged 13-25 years via online surveys. Respondents answered questions on their drinking behaviors and involvement with alcohol marketing on SNS. Many respondents from both countries reported interacting with alcohol content online, predominantly on Facebook, followed by YouTube and then Twitter. The interaction was primarily in the forms of posting/liking/sharing/commenting on items posted on alcohol companies' social media accounts, viewing the event page/attending the event advertised by an alcohol company via social media, and/or accessing an alcohol website. Multivariate analyses demonstrated significant associations between respondents' interaction with alcohol content and drinking levels, with effects differing by SNS, demographic group, and country. For example, having friends who shared alcohol-related content was an important predictor of usual alcohol consumption for Indian respondents (p < .001), whereas posting alcohol-related information themselves was a stronger predictor among Australians (p < .001). The results suggest that interaction with alcohol-related content on SNS is associated with

Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

2017-01-01

The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Parental Alcohol Involvement and Adolescent Alcohol Expectancies Predict Alcohol Involvement in Male Adolescents

PubMed Central

Cranford, James A.; Zucker, Robert A.; Jester, Jennifer M.; Puttler, Leon I.; Fitzgerald, Hiram E.

2010-01-01

Current models of adolescent drinking behavior hypothesize that alcohol expectancies mediate the effects of other proximal and distal risk factors. This longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that the effects of parental alcohol involvement on their children’s drinking behavior in mid-adolescence are mediated by the children’s alcohol expectancies in early adolescence. A sample of 148 initially 9–11 year old boys and their parents from a high-risk population and a contrast group of community families completed measures of drinking behavior and alcohol expectancies over a 6-year interval. We analyzed data from middle childhood (M age = 10.4 years), early adolescence (M age = 13.5 years), and mid-adolescence (M age = 16.5 years). The sample was restricted only to adolescents who had begun to drink by mid-adolescence. Results from zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses showed that 1) maternal drinking during their children’s middle childhood predicted number of drinking days in middle adolescence; 2) negative and positive alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted odds of any intoxication in middle adolescence; and 3) paternal alcoholism during their children’s middle childhood and adolescents’ alcohol expectancies in early adolescence predicted frequency of intoxication in middle adolescence. Contrary to predictions, child alcohol expectancies did not mediate the effects of parental alcohol involvement in this high-risk sample. Different aspects of parental alcohol involvement, along with early adolescent alcohol expectancies, independently predicted adolescent drinking behavior in middle adolescence. Alternative pathways for the influence of maternal and paternal alcohol involvement and implications for expectancy models of adolescent drinking behavior were discussed. PMID:20853923

Flavored alcoholic beverages: an international marketing campaign that targets youth.

PubMed

Mosher, James F; Johnsson, Diane

2005-09-01

Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) were first introduced into the alcohol market in the early I980s in the form of wine coolers. FABs are sweet, relatively low alcohol content beverages that are designed for "entry-level" drinkers. The alcohol industry has introduced new products and production methods to expand the category's popularity. Research suggests that they are popular with underage drinkers, particularly teenage girls, and that the industry uses marketing practices that appear to target youth. FABs are now marketed globally, and their production and marketing vary by country based on national regulatory restraints. In the United States, industry representations that the products are malt beverages for regulatory purposes appears to violate many state laws because the alcohol in the FABs is derived from distilled spirits. Recommendations for regulatory reform, including new legal definitions of FABs, increased taxes, and restrictions on availability, are applicable at both national and state levels.

Peer, social media, and alcohol marketing influences on college student drinking.

PubMed

Roberson, Angela A; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

2018-07-01

To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as well as moderation by gender and race. Drinking behavior was directly related to perceived norms and attitudes toward alcohol that develop, in part, from direct and indirect interactions with their online and offline peers, as well as engagement with alcohol-related content on social media. Gender and ethnicity moderated some effects. College student drinking is influenced by friends' alcohol-related content posted on social networking sites and by greater engagement with traditional and online alcohol marketing. College campus alcohol misuse interventions should include components to counter peer influences and alcohol marketing on social media.

Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardiner, W.H.

1986-01-01

Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed withmore » the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.« less

Profits or people? The informative case of alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally

2014-11-28

To analyse influence on alcohol marketing policy in New Zealand. Document and literature review. There is a powerful argument and popular support for restricting alcohol marketing but no significant policy action taken. Greater priority has been placed on the profits of influential corporations compared with protecting the health of future generations of New Zealanders.

Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis.

PubMed

Purves, Richard I; Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

2017-06-29

This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect "alibi marketing". To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people.

Multinational Alcohol Market Development and Public Health: Diageo in India.

PubMed

Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

2015-11-01

Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India's changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India's alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo's strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India's younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo's responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo's strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets.

Alcohol marketing research: the need for a new agenda.

PubMed

Meier, Petra S

2011-03-01

This paper aims to contribute to a rethink of marketing research priorities to address policy makers' evidence needs in relation to alcohol marketing. Discussion paper reviewing evidence gaps identified during an appraisal of policy options to restrict alcohol marketing. Evidence requirements can be categorized as follows: (i) the size of marketing effects for the whole population and for policy-relevant population subgroups, (ii) the balance between immediate and long-term effects and the time lag, duration and cumulative build-up of effects and (iii) comparative effects of partial versus comprehensive marketing restrictions on consumption and harm. These knowledge gaps impede the appraisal and evaluation of existing and new interventions, because without understanding the size and timing of expected effects, researchers may choose inadequate time-frames, samples or sample sizes. To date, research has tended to rely on simplified models of marketing and has focused disproportionately on youth populations. The effects of cumulative exposure across multiple marketing channels, targeting of messages at certain population groups and indirect effects of advertising on consumption remain unclear. It is essential that studies into marketing effect sizes are geared towards informing policy decision-makers, anchored strongly in theory, use measures of effect that are well-justified and recognize fully the complexities of alcohol marketing efforts. © 2010 The Author, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Multinational Alcohol Market Development and Public Health: Diageo in India

PubMed Central

Jernigan, David H.

2015-01-01

Alcohol is a risk factor for communicable and noncommunicable diseases, and alcohol consumption is rising steadily in India. The growth of multinational alcohol corporations, such as Diageo, contributes to India’s changing alcohol environment. We provide a brief history of India’s alcohol regulation for context and examine Diageo’s strategies for expansion in India in 2013 and 2014. Diageo is attracted to India’s younger generation, women, and emerging middle class for growth opportunities. Components of Diageo’s responsibility strategy conflict with evidence-based public health recommendations for reducing harmful alcohol consumption. Diageo’s strategies for achieving market dominance in India are at odds with public health evidence. We conclude with recommendations for protecting public health in emerging markets. PMID:26378848

Alcohol Marketing during the UEFA EURO 2016 Football Tournament: A Frequency Analysis

PubMed Central

Critchlow, Nathan; Stead, Martine; Adams, Jean; Brown, Katherine

2017-01-01

This study examined the frequency and nature of alcohol marketing references in broadcasts of the 2016 UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) European Championships football tournament in the United Kingdom (UK). Eighteen matches from across the tournament were recorded in full as broadcast in the UK, including all four matches featuring the English national team and all seven featuring the French national team. All visual and verbal references to alcohol marketing were recorded using a tool with high inter-rater reliability. A total of 2213 alcohol marketing references were recorded, an average of 122.94 per broadcast and 0.65 per broadcast minute (0.52 per minute in-play and 0.80 per minute out-of-play). Almost all references were visual (97.5%), with 77.9% occurring around the pitch border. Almost all (90.6%) were indirect references to alcohol brands (e.g., references to well-known slogans), compared to only 9.4% direct references to brands (e.g., brand names). The frequency of references to alcohol marketing was high. Although the overall proportion of direct brand references was low, the high proportion of indirect references demonstrates that alcohol producers were able to circumvent the French national law governing alcohol marketing (the Loi Évin) using indirect “alibi marketing”. To ensure the spirit of the Loi Évin regulations are achieved, stricter enforcement may be required to limit exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly for young people. PMID:28661462

Measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing on social networking sites: challenges and prospects.

PubMed

Jernigan, David H; Rushman, Anne E

2014-02-01

Youth exposure to alcohol marketing has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and problems. On relatively new and highly interactive social networking sites (SNS) that are popular with youth, tools for measuring youth exposure to alcohol marketing in traditional media are inadequate. We critically review the existing policies of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube designed to keep branded alcohol content away from underage youth. Looking at brand and user activity on Facebook for the 15 alcohol brands most popular among US youth, we found activity has grown dramatically in the past 3 years, and underage users may be accounting for some of this activity. Surveys of youth and adult participation in alcohol marketing on SNS will be needed to inform debate over these marketing practices.

Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program.

PubMed

Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Schuster, Lisa; Drennan, Judy; Russell-Bennett, Rebekah; Leo, Cheryl; Gullo, Matthew J; Connor, Jason P

2015-10-01

This study seeks to establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the GOKA program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2,114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral, and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking refusal self-efficacy of identified segments were subsequently examined. Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers, (2) Bingers, and (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post-participation were observed for Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting the application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments will extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Policy Approaches for Regulating Alcohol Marketing in a Global Context: A Public Health Perspective.

PubMed

Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

2018-04-01

Alcohol consumption is responsible for 3.3 million deaths globally or nearly 6% of all deaths. Alcohol use contributes to both communicable and noncommunicable diseases, as well as violence and injuries. The purpose of this review is to discuss, in the context of the expansion of transnational alcohol corporations and harms associated with alcohol use, policy options for regulating exposure to alcohol marketing. We first provide an overview of the public health problem of harmful alcohol consumption and describe the association between exposure to alcohol marketing and alcohol consumption. We then discuss the growth and concentration of global alcohol corporations and their marketing practices in low- and middle-income countries, as well as in higher-income societies. We review the use and effectiveness of various approaches for regulating alcohol marketing in various countries before discussing challenges and opportunities to protect public health.

Marketing of alcohol to young people: a comparison of the UK and Poland.

PubMed

Cooke, Emma; Hastings, Gerard; Wheeler, Colin; Eadie, Douglas; Moskalewicz, Jacek; Dabrowska, Katarzyna

2004-01-01

This paper takes an international perspective on the marketing of alcohol to young people by examining case studies of the marketing of alcohol in the UK and Poland. It is suggested that marketing is a powerful mechanism for attracting young consumers. The alcohol industry is an innovative industry able to use a wide variety of marketing tools to achieve success in the market-place. It is important to recognise that the marketing activities of the industry are becoming increasingly transnational and that policy response has to be equally transnational. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

Industry self-regulation of alcohol marketing: a systematic review of content and exposure research.

PubMed

Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine

2017-01-01

With governments relying increasingly upon the alcohol industry's self-regulated marketing codes to restrict alcohol marketing activity, there is a need to summarize the findings of research relevant to alcohol marketing controls. This paper provides a systematic review of studies investigating the content of, and exposure to, alcohol marketing in relation to self-regulated guidelines. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: SCOPUS, Web of Science, PubMed and PsychINFO. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations and government research centers were also identified. Ninety-six publications met the inclusion criteria. Of the 19 studies evaluating a specific marketing code and 25 content analysis studies reviewed, all detected content that could be considered potentially harmful to children and adolescents, including themes that appeal strongly to young men. Of the 57 studies of alcohol advertising exposure, high levels of youth exposure and high awareness of alcohol advertising were found for television, radio, print, digital and outdoor advertisements. Youth exposure to alcohol advertising has increased over time, even as greater compliance with exposure thresholds has been documented. Violations of the content guidelines within self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are highly prevalent in certain media. Exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly among youth, is also prevalent. Taken together, the findings suggest that the current self-regulatory systems that govern alcohol marketing practices are not meeting their intended goal of protecting vulnerable populations. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Children's exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets: An objective analysis using GPS technology and wearable cameras.

PubMed

Chambers, T; Pearson, A L; Stanley, J; Smith, M; Barr, M; Ni Mhurchu, C; Signal, L

2017-07-01

Exposure to alcohol marketing within alcohol retailers has been associated with higher rates of childhood drinking, brand recognition, and marketing recall. This study aimed to objectively measure children's everyday exposure to alcohol marketing within supermarkets. Children aged 11-13 (n = 167) each wore a wearable camera and GPS device for four consecutive days. Micro-spatial analyses were used to examine exposures within supermarkets. In alcohol retailing supermarkets (n = 30), children encountered alcohol marketing on 85% of their visits (n = 78). Alcohol marketing was frequently near everyday goods (bread and milk) or entrance/exit. Alcohol sales in supermarkets should be banned in order to protect children from alcohol marketing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Point-of-purchase alcohol marketing and promotion by store type--United States, 2000-2001.

PubMed

2003-04-11

Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States, accounting for approximately 100,000 deaths annually. Efforts to reduce the adverse health and social consequences from alcohol use include policies to restrict access to alcohol among underaged persons (i.e., persons aged <21 years) and to reduce alcohol-impaired driving among persons of all ages. Recent studies have focused on alcohol marketing as a potentially important contributor to alcohol consumption, particularly among underage drinkers. Point-of-purchase (POP) (i.e., on-site) marketing, including alcohol advertising and placement, can increase alcohol sales and consumption substantially, thereby increasing the risk for various alcohol-related health outcomes, including alcohol-impaired driving and interpersonal violence. To assess the type and frequency of POP alcohol marketing, researchers with the ImpacTeen Project collected and analyzed store observation data during 2000-2001 from 3,961 alcohol retailers in 329 communities throughout the United States. This report summarizes the results of the study, which indicate that POP alcohol marketing is extensive in certain store types frequented by teenagers and young adults. Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce POP marketing that could promote risky or underage drinking.

Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation.

PubMed

Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the 'regulatory pyramid', alcohol being less regulated than tobacco.

Analysis of Alcohol Industry Submissions against Marketing Regulation

PubMed Central

Martino, Florentine Petronella; Miller, Peter Graeme; Coomber, Kerri; Hancock, Linda; Kypri, Kypros

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature points to the role of vested interests as a barrier to the implementation of effective public health policies. Corporate political activity by the alcohol industry is commonly used to influence policy and regulation. It is important for policy makers to be able to critique alcohol industry claims opposed to improved alcohol marketing regulation. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency reviewed alcohol marketing regulations in 2012 and stakeholders were invited to comment on them. In this study we used thematic analysis to examine submissions from the Australian alcohol industry, based on a system previously developed in relation to tobacco industry corporate political activity. The results show that submissions were a direct lobbying tactic, making claims to government that were contrary to the evidence-base. Five main frames were identified, in which the alcohol industry claimed that increased regulation: (1) is unnecessary; (2) is not backed up by sufficient evidence; (3) will lead to unintended negative consequences; and (4) faces legal barriers to implementation; underpinned by the view (5) that the industry consists of socially responsible companies working toward reducing harmful drinking. In contrast with tobacco industry submissions on public policy, which often focused on legal and economic barriers, the Australian alcohol industry placed a heavier emphasis on notions of regulatory redundancy and insufficient evidence. This may reflect differences in where these industries sit on the ‘regulatory pyramid’, alcohol being less regulated than tobacco. PMID:28118411

The commercial use of digital media to market alcohol products: a narrative review.

PubMed

Lobstein, Tim; Landon, Jane; Thornton, Nicole; Jernigan, David

2017-01-01

The rising use of digital media in the last decade, including social networking media and downloadable applications, has created new opportunities for marketing a wide range of goods and services, including alcohol products. This paper aims to review the evidence in order to answer a series of policy-relevant questions: does alcohol marketing through digital media influence drinking behaviour or increases consumption; what methods of promotional marketing are used, and to what extent; and what is the evidence of marketing code violations and especially of marketing to children? A search of scientific, medical and social journals and authoritative grey literature identified 47 relevant papers (including 14 grey literature documents). The evidence indicated (i) that exposure to marketing through digital media was associated with higher levels of drinking behaviour; (ii) that the marketing activities make use of materials and approaches that are attractive to young people and encourage interactive engagement with branded messaging; and (iii) there is evidence that current alcohol marketing codes are being undermined by alcohol producers using digital media. There is evidence to support public health interventions to restrict the commercial promotion of alcohol in digital media, especially measures to protect children and youth. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

PubMed Central

Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B.

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Methods Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990–2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second‐reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Results Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self‐regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non‐regulatory initiatives. Conclusions The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. PMID:26173765

Framing a public health debate over alcohol advertising: the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth 2002-2008.

PubMed

Jernigan, David H

2011-05-01

The experiences of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth from 2002 to 2008 in re-framing a major public health issue and influencing public policy offer lessons for other public health movements. The Center pioneered new ways to use commercial market research data in public health surveillance and public debate. Combining a steady stream of reports and peer-reviewed articles with state and federal organizing and media advocacy, the Center re-framed a policy debate over alcohol marketing and youth, enabling measurable progress.

Regulation of alcohol marketing: a global view.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Maxwell, Anna

2005-09-01

The marketing of alcohol produces a new challenge for policy development internationally, in part because of the increase in the use of new, unmeasured technologies. Many of these new developments are, as yet, relatively invisible in the policy arena. New approaches in branding, the utilization of marketing opportunities via branded events and new products provide additional complexity to attempts to monitor and to restrict the impact of marketing on young people and other vulnerable groups. Current attempts to restrict marketing globally, which rely primarily on voluntary codes and focus on traditional media, are inadequate to these challenges. A new statutory framework is required to enable the monitoring and control of the full marketing mix in ways which match the sophistication of the marketing efforts themselves.

Youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television--25 markets, United States, 2010.

PubMed

2013-11-08

Excessive alcohol consumption accounted for an estimated 4,700 deaths and 280,000 years of potential life lost among youths aged <21 years each year during 2001-2005. Exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood to varying degrees that youths will initiate drinking and drink at higher levels. By 2003, the alcohol industry voluntarily agreed not to advertise on television programs where >30% of the audience is reasonably expected to be aged <21 years. However, the National Research Council/Institute of Medicine (NRC/IOM) proposed in 2003 that "the industry standard should move toward a 15% threshold for television advertising". Because local media markets might have different age distributions, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, evaluated the proportion of advertisements that appeared on television programs in 25 local television markets* and resulting youth exposure that exceeded the industry standard (i.e., >30% aged 2-20 years) or the proposed NRC/IOM standard (i.e., >15% aged 12-20 years). Among national television programs with alcohol advertising, placements were assessed for the 10 programs with the largest number of youth viewers within each of four program categories: network sports, network nonsports, cable sports, and cable nonsports (40 total). Of the 196,494 alcohol advertisements that aired on television programs with the largest number of youth viewers in these local markets, placement of 23.7% exceeded the industry threshold and 35.4% exceeded the NRC/IOM threshold. These results indicate that the alcohol industry's self-regulation of its advertising could be improved, and youth exposure to alcohol advertising could be further reduced by adopting and complying with the NRC/IOM standard. In addition, continued public health surveillance would allow for sustained assessment of youth exposure to alcohol advertising and inform future interventions.

Examining How Media Literacy and Personality Factors Predict Skepticism Toward Alcohol Advertising.

PubMed

Austin, Erica Weintraub; Muldrow, Adrienne; Austin, Bruce W

2016-05-01

To examine the potential effectiveness of media literacy education in the context of well-established personality factors, a survey of 472 young adults, focused on the issue of alcohol marketing messages, examined how individual differences in personality associate with constructs representing aspects of media literacy. The results showed that need for cognition predicted social expectancies and wishful identification with media portrayals in alcohol advertising only through critical thinking about media sources and media content, which are foci of media literacy education. Need for affect did not associate with increased or diminished levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking about sources and messages affected skepticism, represented by expectancies through wishful identification, consistent with the message interpretation process model. The results support the view that critical thinking about media sources is an important precursor to critical thinking about media messages. The results also suggest that critical thinking about media (i.e., media literacy) reflects more than personality characteristics and can affect wishful identification with role models observed in media, which appears to be a key influence on decision making. This adds support to the view that media literacy education can improve decision making across personality types regarding alcohol use by decreasing the potential influence of alcohol marketing messages.

Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. Method A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Conclusion Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or

Effectiveness of alcohol prevention interventions based on the principles of social marketing: a systematic review.

PubMed

Janssen, Meriam M; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; van Bon-Martens, Marja J H; van Oers, Hans A M; Garretsen, Henk F L

2013-06-01

Alcohol education aims to increase knowledge on the harm related to alcohol, and to change attitudes and drinking behaviour. However, little (lasting) evidence has been found for alcohol education, in changing alcohol-related attitudes and behaviour. Social marketing uses marketing techniques to achieve a social or healthy goal, and can be used in alcohol education. Social marketing consists of eight principles: customer orientation, insight, segmentation, behavioural goals, exchange, competition, methods mix, and is theory based. This review investigates the application of social marketing in alcohol prevention interventions, and whether application of social marketing influences alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, PsychInfo, Cochrane and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were that original papers had to describe the effects of an alcohol prevention intervention developed according to one or more principles of social marketing. No limits were set on the age of the participants or on the kind of alcohol prevention intervention. The abstracts of the 274 retrieved studies were reviewed and the full texts of potentially relevant studies were screened. Six studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. These six studies showed associations for the application of social marketing techniques on alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour; one study relates to participation in a drinking event, four to alcohol drinking behaviour, two to driving a car while under the influence of alcohol, two to recognition of campaign messages or campaign logo, and one to awareness of the campaign. However, no associations were also found. In addition, the studies had several limitations related to a control group, response rate and study methodology. Based on this review, the effect of applying the principles of social marketing in alcohol prevention in changing alcohol-related attitudes or behaviour could not be assessed. More

When evidence is not enough: a case study on alcohol marketing legislation in Brazil.

PubMed

Vendrame, Alan

2017-01-01

This case study identifies the influence and mechanisms that the alcohol industry in Brazil has been able to bring to bear to maintain self-regulation in the marketing of beer and many wines set against a trend of increasing alcohol consumption in Brazil, particularly among young people and women. It identifies the forms of power and strategies used by the alcohol industry in Brazil that may be useful for other countries to consider in seeking to move from self-regulation to state regulation of alcohol marketing. A review was conducted of recent legal documents and court cases, as well as the activities of alcoholic beverage industries. Because of an exemption, Brazilian law had established that both beer and many wines are not alcoholic beverages for marketing purposes. These beverages are subjected to industry self-regulation codes. Research shows that beer and wine marketing often violates industry codes, with little or no enforcement of penalties for non-compliance. Attempts to include beer and wine in the legal definition of alcohol have been opposed by the alcohol industry, and the courts have delegated responsibility to the legislature. The recent legal activities surrounding alcohol sales during the 2014 World Cup games in Brazil provide evidence of the alcohol industry's influence on the legislative process. The alcohol industry in Brazil plays a significant role in the formulation of public policies on alcohol, especially regarding the regulation of marketing. This power is exercised by strong lobbying of government officials responsible for public policies. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review.

PubMed

Savell, Emily; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B

2016-01-01

To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry. Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria. Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives. The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of

Creating intoxigenic environments: marketing alcohol to young people in Aotearoa New Zealand.

PubMed

McCreanor, Tim; Barnes, Helen Moewaka; Kaiwai, Hector; Borell, Suaree; Gregory, Amanda

2008-09-01

Alcohol consumption among young people in New Zealand is on the rise. Given the broad array of acute and chronic harms that arise from this trend, it is a major cause for alarm and it is imperative that we improve our knowledge of key drivers of youth drinking. Changes wrought by the neoliberal political climate of deregulation that characterised the last two decades in many countries including Aotearoa (Aotearoa is a Maori name for New Zealand) New Zealand have transformed the availability of alcohol to young people. Commercial development of youth alcohol markets has seen the emergence of new environments, cultures and practices around drinking and intoxication but the ways in which these changes are interpreted and taken up are not well understood. This paper reports findings from a qualitative research project investigating the meaning-making practices of young people in New Zealand in response to alcohol marketing. Research data included group interviews with a range of Maori and Pakeha young people at three time periods. Thematic analyses of the youth data on usages of marketing materials indicate naturalisation of tropes of alcohol intoxication. We show how marketing is used and enjoyed in youth discourses creating and maintaining what we refer to as intoxigenic social environments. The implications are considered in light of the growing exposure of young people to alcohol marketing in a discussion of strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts on behaviour and consumption.

Marketing alcohol to young people: implications for industry regulation and research policy.

PubMed

Jackson, M C; Hastings, G; Wheeler, C; Eadie, D; Mackintosh, A M

2000-12-01

This paper focuses on the marketing of alcohol to young people in the United Kingdom, but the lessons that emerge have international significance. Alcohol is a global enterprise and recent consolidation means that it is controlled by a decreasing number of expanding multi-nationals. Alcohol companies are able to allocate significant resources to researching consumer preferences, developing new products and promoting them on an international level. Recent years have seen a growth in the value that youth culture attaches to brand labels and symbols and a move away from the healthy-living ethos. The alcohol industry's response to these trends has been to design alcoholic beverages that appeal to young people, using well-informed and precisely targeted marketing strategies. This has led to growing concerns about the implications for public health and a demand for tighter controls to regulate alcohol marketing practices. In the United Kingdom, controls on alcohol are piecemeal and reactive and the current system of voluntary regulation appears ineffective. This paper argues for more research to establish current industry practice and inform the development of a comprehensive regulatory structure and system of monitoring.

Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

Automatic Avoidance Tendencies for Alcohol Cues Predict Drinking After Detoxification Treatment in Alcohol Dependence

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. PMID:27935726

Underage access to online alcohol marketing content: a YouTube case study.

PubMed

Barry, Adam E; Johnson, Emily; Rabre, Alexander; Darville, Gabrielle; Donovan, Kristin M; Efunbumi, Orisatalabi

2015-01-01

With the proliferation of the Internet and online social media use, alcohol advertisers are now marketing their products through social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. As a result, new recommendations have been made by the Federal Trade Commission concerning the self-regulation of digital marketing strategies, including content management on social and digital media sites. The current study sought to determine whether alcohol companies were implementing the self-imposed mandates that they have developed for online marketing. Specifically, we examined whether alcohol companies were implementing effective strategies that would prevent persons under the minimum legal drinking age in the USA from accessing their content on YouTube. We assessed 16 alcohol brands (beer and liquor) associated with the highest prevalence of past 30 day underage alcohol consumption in the USA. Fictitious YouTube user profiles were created and assigned the ages of 14, 17 and 19. These profiles then attempted to access and view the brewer-sponsored YouTube channels for each of the 16 selected brands. Every underage profile, regardless of age, was able to successfully subscribe to each of the 16 (100%) official YouTube channels. On average, two-thirds of the brands' channels were successfully viewed (66.67%). Alcohol industry provided online marketing content is predominantly accessible to underage adolescents. Thus, brewers are not following some of the self-developed and self-imposed mandates for online advertising by failing to implement effective age-restriction measures (i.e. age gates). © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Reinforcement of smoking and drinking: tobacco marketing strategies linked with alcohol in the United States.

PubMed

Jiang, Nan; Ling, Pamela M

2011-10-01

We investigated tobacco companies' knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Tobacco companies' numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use.

Exploring college students' use of general and alcohol-related social media and their associations with alcohol-related behaviors.

PubMed

Hoffman, Eric W; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

2014-01-01

Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors. Public and private university students (N = 637) participated November and December 2011 and April 2012. College students completed online surveys to measure their exposure to social and online media generally, as well as their alcohol-related digital media use and alcohol use. Use of social media related to alcohol marketing predicted alcohol consumption and engaging in risky behaviors, whereas the use of social media more generally did not. Students' use of alcohol-related social media-marketing content associates with their problem drinking. Results have implications for alcohol abuse reduction efforts targeted at college students and suggest the importance of considering social, cultural, and cognitive factors in campaign planning and design.

Automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues predict drinking after detoxification treatment in alcohol dependence.

PubMed

Field, Matt; Di Lemma, Lisa; Christiansen, Paul; Dickson, Joanne

2017-03-01

Alcohol dependence is characterized by conflict between approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol that operate in automatic and controlled processes. This article describes the first study to investigate the predictive validity of these motivational orientations for relapse to drinking after discharge from alcohol detoxification treatment in alcohol-dependent patients. One hundred twenty alcohol-dependent patients who were nearing the end of inpatient detoxification treatment completed measures of self-reported (Approach and Avoidance of Alcohol Questionnaire; AAAQ) and automatic (modified Stimulus-Response Compatibility task) approach and avoidance motivational orientations for alcohol. Their drinking behavior was assessed via telephone follow-ups at 2, 4, and 6 months after discharge from treatment. Results indicated that, after controlling for the severity of alcohol dependence, strong automatic avoidance tendencies for alcohol cues were predictive of higher percentage of heavy drinking days (PHDD) at 4-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.07, 0.43]) and 6-month (β = 0.22, 95% CI [0.01, 0.42]) follow-ups. We failed to replicate previous demonstrations of the predictive validity of approach subscales of the AAAQ for relapse to drinking, and there were no significant predictors of PHDD at 2-month follow-up. In conclusion, strong automatic avoidance tendencies predicted relapse to drinking after inpatient detoxification treatment, but automatic approach tendencies and self-reported approach and avoidance tendencies were not predictive in this study. Our results extend previous findings and help to resolve ambiguities with earlier studies that investigated the roles of automatic and controlled cognitive processes in recovery from alcohol dependence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

PubMed

Scribner, Richard A; Theall, Katherine P; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

2011-03-01

Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

Alcohol Prevention on College Campuses: The Moderating Effect of the Alcohol Environment on the Effectiveness of Social Norms Marketing Campaigns*

PubMed Central

Scribner, Richard A.; Theall, Katherine P.; Mason, Karen; Simonsen, Neal; Schneider, Shari Kessel; Towvim, Laura Gomberg; DeJong, William

2011-01-01

Objective: Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. Method: Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N = 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. Results: There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets. PMID:21388596

Exposure to Online Alcohol Marketing and Adolescents' Drinking: A Cross-sectional Study in Four European Countries.

PubMed

de Bruijn, Avalon; Engels, Rutger; Anderson, Peter; Bujalski, Michal; Gosselt, Jordy; Schreckenberg, Dirk; Wohtge, Jördis; de Leeuw, Rebecca

2016-09-01

The Internet is the leading medium among European adolescents in contemporary times; even more time is spent on the Internet than watching television. This study investigates associations between online alcohol marketing exposure and onset of drinking and binge drinking among adolescents in four European countries. A total of 9038 students with a mean age of 14.05 (SD 0.82) participated in a school-based survey in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional cross-country survey data were undertaken. Exposure to online alcohol marketing, televised alcohol advertising and ownership of alcohol-branded items was estimated to be controlled for relevant confounders. Onset of drinking and binge drinking in the past 30 days were included in the study as outcome variables. Adjusted for relevant confounders, higher exposure to (online) alcohol marketing exposure was found to be related to the odds of starting to drink (p < 0.001) and the odds of binge drinking in the past 30 days (p < 0.001). This effect was found to be consistent in all four countries. Active engagement with online alcohol marketing was found to interact more strongly with drinking outcomes than passive exposure to online alcohol marketing. Youngsters in the four European countries report frequent exposure to online alcohol marketing. The association between this exposure and adolescents' drinking was robust and seems consistent across national contexts. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Reinforcement of Smoking and Drinking: Tobacco Marketing Strategies Linked With Alcohol in the United States

PubMed Central

Jiang, Nan

2011-01-01

Objectives. We investigated tobacco companies’ knowledge about concurrent use of tobacco and alcohol, their marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol, and the benefits tobacco companies sought from these marketing activities. Methods. We performed systematic searches on previously secret tobacco industry documents, and we summarized the themes and contexts of relevant search results. Results. Tobacco company research confirmed the association between tobacco use and alcohol use. Tobacco companies explored promotional strategies linking cigarettes and alcohol, such as jointly sponsoring special events with alcohol companies to lower the cost of sponsorships, increase consumer appeal, reinforce brand identity, and generate increased cigarette sales. They also pursued promotions that tied cigarette sales to alcohol purchases, and cigarette promotional events frequently featured alcohol discounts or encouraged alcohol use. Conclusions. Tobacco companies’ numerous marketing strategies linking cigarettes with alcohol may have reinforced the use of both substances. Because using tobacco and alcohol together makes it harder to quit smoking, policies prohibiting tobacco sales and promotion in establishments where alcohol is served and sold might mitigate this effect. Smoking cessation programs should address the effect that alcohol consumption has on tobacco use. PMID:21852637

The relationship between labour market categories and alcohol use trajectories in midlife.

PubMed

Colell, Esther; Bell, Steven; Britton, Annie

2014-11-01

Studies on the role of labour market position and change in alcohol use during midlife are scarce and their results are inconclusive mainly due to their failure to define comprehensive and distinct labour market groups and the short periods of time studied. In this study we used different activity categories for men and women to examine alcohol use trajectories in midlife covering a period of 17 years. Using data from four sweeps of the National Child Development Study covering ages 33-50 (N=9960), we used multilevel growth models to study the association between labour market categories and longitudinal changes in weekly units of alcohol consumed. In the reference group of full-time employed men alcohol trajectory decreased over the follow-up period (β=-0.14; 95% CI -0.18 to -0.11) while in the reference group of employed women it increased (β=0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.08). Men and women who were 'mainly sick' had significantly steeper declines in their alcohol consumption trajectory. Women who became employed after being homemakers had the steepest increase in alcohol use (β=0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). Being employed is a strong determinant of alcohol use for men and women in midlife, making the workplace a good target for health promotion programmes and policies aimed at reducing alcohol use. Caution is needed when interpreting the health effects of alcohol consumption as low alcohol users may have previously been heavy drinkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Red flags on pinkwashed drinks: contradictions and dangers in marketing alcohol to prevent cancer.

PubMed

Mart, Sarah; Giesbrecht, Norman

2015-10-01

To document alcohol products and promotions that use the pink ribbon symbol and related marketing materials that associate alcohol brands with breast cancer charities, awareness and survivors. We conducted a basic Boolean public internet search for alcohol products with pink ribbon/breast cancer awareness marketing campaigns. There is strong and growing evidence of alcohol as a contributing cause of several types of cancer, including breast cancer. There is no U-shaped curve for cancer, and threshold of elevated relative risk is as low as one drink a day for certain cancers. We found 17 examples of alcohol product campaigns with websites, press releases and social media posts, along with news articles and blog posts from industry and non-profit organizations regarding alcohol products associated with breast cancer causes and charities. Various cancer charities have entered into alliances with sectors of the alcohol industry that raise funds for breast cancer research, treatment or prevention by promoting the purchase of certain alcoholic beverages. Some alcohol corporations use pink ribbons and other breast cancer-related images, messages and user-generated media to market a product that contributes to cancer disease and death. Therefore, cancer charities should adopt policies to separate them from alliances with the alcohol industry. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Development of a Climate Prediction Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.

2017-12-01

Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

Alcohol-Related Facebook Activity Predicts Alcohol Use Patterns in College Students

PubMed Central

Marczinski, Cecile A.; Hertzenberg, Heather; Goddard, Perilou; Maloney, Sarah F.; Stamates, Amy L.; O’Connor, Kathleen

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if a brief 10-item alcohol-related Facebook® activity (ARFA) questionnaire would predict alcohol use patterns in college students (N = 146). During a single laboratory session, participants first privately logged on to their Facebook® profiles while they completed the ARFA measure, which queries past 30 day postings related to alcohol use and intoxication. Participants were then asked to complete five additional questionnaires: three measures of alcohol use (the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT], the Timeline Follow-Back [TLFB], and the Personal Drinking Habits Questionnaire [PDHQ]), the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC-SDS). Regression analyses revealed that total ARFA scores were significant predictors of recent drinking behaviors, as assessed by the AUDIT, TLFB, and PDHQ measures. Moreover, impulsivity (BIS-11) and social desirability (MC-SDS) did not predict recent drinking behaviors when ARFA total scores were included in the regressions. The findings suggest that social media activity measured via the ARFA scale may be useful as a research tool for identifying risky alcohol use. PMID:28138317

Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

PubMed

Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

2014-11-01

The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents.

PubMed

Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

2014-01-01

to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users.

Alcohol Marketing, Drunkenness, and Problem Drinking among Zambian Youth: Findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey

PubMed Central

Swahn, Monica H.; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B.; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

2011-01-01

This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09–2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06–1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:21647354

Alcohol marketing, drunkenness, and problem drinking among Zambian youth: findings from the 2004 Global School-Based Student Health Survey.

PubMed

Swahn, Monica H; Ali, Bina; Palmier, Jane B; Sikazwe, George; Mayeya, John

2011-01-01

This study examines the associations between alcohol marketing strategies, alcohol education including knowledge about dangers of alcohol and refusal of alcohol, and drinking prevalence, problem drinking, and drunkenness. Analyses are based on the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Zambia (2004) of students primarily 11 to 16 years of age (N = 2257). Four statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and education and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.09-2.02) and problem drinking (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.06-1.87) among youth after controlling for demographic characteristics, risky behaviors, and alcohol education. However, alcohol education was not associated with drunkenness or problem drinking. These findings underscore the importance of restricting alcohol marketing practices as an important policy strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

Adverse Childhood Experiences Predict Alcohol Consumption Patterns Among Kenyan Mothers.

PubMed

Goodman, Michael L; Grouls, Astrid; Chen, Catherine X; Keiser, Philip H; Gitari, Stanley

2017-04-16

We analyze whether adverse childhood experiences predict weekly alcohol consumption patterns of Kenyan mothers and their partners. Randomly selected respondents (n = 1,976) were asked about adverse childhood experiences and alcohol consumption patterns for themselves and their partners. Fixed effect models were used to determine odds of reporting weekly alcohol consumption and the number of beverages typically consumed, controlling for wealth, age, education, and partner alcohol consumption. Cumulative adverse childhood experiences predicted higher odds of weekly alcohol consumption of the respondent and her partner. Childhood exposure to physical abuse, emotional neglect, and mental illness in the household significantly increased odds of weekly alcohol consumption by the respondent. More drinks consumed per typical session were higher among respondents with more cumulative adversities. Physical and emotional abuse significantly predicted number of drinks typically consumed by the respondent. To our knowledge, this is the first study to explore and find associations between adverse childhood experiences and alcohol consumption in Kenya. Consistent with high-income settings, exposure to childhood adversities predicted greater alcohol consumption among Kenyan women.

Predictive factors of alcohol and tobacco use in adolescents

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Aguirre, Alicia; Alonso-Castillo, María Magdalena; Zanetti, Ana Carolina Guidorizzi

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the effect of self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency on alcohol and tobacco consumption in adolescents. METHOD: a descriptive and correlational study was undertaken with 575 adolescents in 2010. The Self-Esteem Scale, the Situational Confidence Scale, the Assertiveness Questionnaire and the Resiliency Scale were used. RESULTS: the adjustment of the logistic regression model, considering age, sex, self-esteem, assertiveness, self-efficacy and resiliency, demonstrates significance in the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Age, resiliency and assertiveness predict alcohol consumption in the lifetime and assertiveness predicts alcohol consumption in the last year. Similarly, age and sex predict tobacco consumption in the lifetime and age in the last year. CONCLUSION: this study can offer important information to plan nursing interventions involving adolescent alcohol and tobacco users. PMID:25591103

Peer, Social Media, and Alcohol Marketing Influences on College Student Drinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberson, Angela A.; McKinney, Cliff; Walker, Courtney; Coleman, Ashley

2018-01-01

Objective: To investigate how alcohol marketing and peers may promote college students' alcohol use through social media. Participants: College students (N = 682) aged 18 to 22 years from a large Southern university completed paper surveys in April 2014. Methods: Structural equation modeling was used to investigate relationships among variables as…

Factors predictive of alcohol abstention after resident detoxication among alcoholics followed in an hospital outpatient center.

PubMed

Gelsi, Eve; Vanbiervliet, Geoffroy; Chérikh, Faredj; Mariné-Barjoan, Eugénia; Truchi, Régine; Arab, Kamel; Delmont, Jean-Marie; Tran, Albert

2007-01-01

A cohort of patient hospitalized for alcohol detoxification between January 2004 and January 2005 were followed prospectively to search for factors predictive factors of sustained abstinence. One hundred and fifteen patients (79 males, 36 females, median age 45.9+/-10.7 years), were hospitalized for alcohol detoxification. Demographic, social, and medical data including daily alcohol intake and co-addictions were noted at inclusion and six months later. Patients who did not attend their six-month visit were contacted by phone. Among the 115 included patients, six month follow-up data could be collected for 73. Abstinence rate was 54.8%. Factors predictive of unsuccessful cessation were homelessness (P=0.004), duration of alcohol consumption (P=0.004), smoking (P=0.02), drug substitution (P=0.04) and multiple addictions (P=0.04). At multivariate analysis, multiple addictions was the only independent factor predictive of unsuccessful detoxification. Naltrexone or acamprosate treatments were not associated with a better rate of alcohol detoxification. Patient follow-up is problematic due to the large number of dropouts among alcoholics. Early screening in search for factors predictive of unsuccessful detoxification (long duration of alcohol consumption, multiple addiction) would be helpful in elaborating appropriate pluridisciplinary management.

A pre-marketing ALT signal predicts post-marketing liver safety.

PubMed

Moylan, Cynthia A; Suzuki, Ayako; Papay, Julie I; Yuen, Nancy A; Ames, Michael; Hunt, Christine M

2012-08-01

Drug induced liver injury during drug development is evidenced by a higher incidence of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations in treated versus placebo populations and termed an "ALT signal". We sought to quantify whether an ALT signal in pre-marketing clinical trials predicted post-marketing hepatotoxicity. Incidence of ALT elevations (ALT ≥ 3 times upper limits normal [× ULN]) for drug and placebo of new chemical entities and approved drugs associated with hepatotoxicity was calculated using the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website. Post-marketing liver safety events were identified using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS). The association of FDA AERS signal score (EB05 ≥ 2) and excess risk of pre-marketing ALT elevation (difference in incidence of ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo) was examined. An ALT signal of ≥ 1.2% was significantly associated with a post-marketing liver safety signal (p ≤ 0.013) and a 71.4% positive predictive value. An absent ALT signal was associated with a high likelihood of post-marketing liver safety; negative predictive value of 89.7%. Daily drug dose information improved the prediction of post-marketing liver safety. A cut-off of 1.2% increase in ALT ≥ 3× ULN in treated versus placebo groups provides an easily calculated method for predicting post-marketing liver safety. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

PubMed

Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

2005-09-01

The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking.

Alcohol marketing in the Americas and Spain during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

PubMed

Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Feulner, Melissa; Vendrame, Alan; Monteiro, Maristela

2017-01-01

To identify the nature of visual alcohol references in alcohol advertisements during televised broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament matches and to evaluate cross-national differences according to alcohol marketing policy restrictiveness. Content analysis using the Delphi method and identification of in-game sponsorships. Television broadcasts of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Mexico, Spain and the United States. Eighty-seven alcohol advertisements; 20 matches. Quantitative rating scales, combined with the Delphi rating technique, were used to determine compliance of the alcohol advertisements with the International Alliance for Responsible Drinking's (IARD) Guiding Principles. Recordings of five matches from four countries were also used to identify the number of in- and out-of-game alcohol brand appearances. A total of 86.2% of all unique alcohol advertisements contained at least one violation of IARD's Guiding Principles, with violation rates ranging from 72.7% (Mexico) to 100% (Brazil). Countries with the least restrictive marketing policies had a higher prevalence of violations in guidelines designed to protect minors. There were 2.76 in-game alcohol brand appearances and 0.83 out-of-game alcohol brand appearances per minute. Brand appearances did not differ across countries or according to a country's marketing policy restrictiveness. Self-regulation and statutory policies were ineffective at limiting alcohol advertising during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Tournament television broadcasts. Most advertisements contained content that violated the self-regulation codes, and there were high levels of within-broadcast brand appearances. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Exposure of children and adolescents to alcohol marketing on social media websites.

PubMed

Winpenny, Eleanor M; Marteau, Theresa M; Nolte, Ellen

2014-01-01

In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6-14 years; 15-24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15-24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation.

Exposure of Children and Adolescents to Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites

PubMed Central

Winpenny, Eleanor M.; Marteau, Theresa M.; Nolte, Ellen

2014-01-01

Aims: In 2011, online marketing became the largest marketing channel in the UK, overtaking television for the first time. This study aimed to describe the exposure of children and young adults to alcohol marketing on social media websites in the UK. Methods: We used commercially available data on the three most used social media websites among young people in the UK, from December 2010 to May 2011. We analysed by age (6–14 years; 15–24 years) and gender the reach (proportion of internet users who used the site in each month) and impressions (number of individual pages viewed on the site in each month) for Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. We further analysed case studies of five alcohol brands to assess the marketer-generated brand content available on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter in February and March 2012. Results: Facebook was the social media site with the highest reach, with an average monthly reach of 89% of males and 91% of females aged 15–24. YouTube had a similar average monthly reach while Twitter had a considerably lower usage in the age groups studied. All five of the alcohol brands studied maintained a Facebook page, Twitter page and YouTube channel, with varying levels of user engagement. Facebook pages could not be accessed by an under-18 user, but in most cases YouTube content and Twitter content could be accessed by those of all ages. Conclusion: The rise in online marketing of alcohol and the high use of social media websites by young people suggests that this is an area requiring further monitoring and regulation. PMID:24293506

Do marketing and alcohol treatment/public health experts think televised alcohol advertisements abide by regulatory guidelines?

PubMed

Lloyd, Kelly; Cameron, Elaine; Williams, Hannah; Banister, Emma; Donmall, Michael; Higgins, Alan; French, David P

2018-04-01

Televised alcohol advertisements in the United Kingdom must abide by the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code, which provides guidelines concerning advertisements not implying, condoning or encouraging immoderate, irresponsible or antisocial drinking. Previously, 75 per cent of 373 general public respondents were shown one of seven advertisements rated a breach of at least one guideline. This study assessed whether experts in marketing ( n = 25) and alcohol treatment/public health ( n = 25) perceived the same seven television alcohol advertisements as complying with the Broadcast Committee of Advertising Practice Code. Overall, 83 per cent of advertisements were rated as breaching at least one guideline. This provides further proof that self-regulatory alcohol guidelines are not fit for purpose.

Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey.

PubMed

Swahn, Monica H; Palmier, Jane B; Benegas-Segarra, Agnes; Sinson, Fe A

2013-12-10

A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths' drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5,290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI=1.06-3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI=1.05-2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI =1.06-2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth.

Alcohol marketing in televised English professional football: a frequency analysis.

PubMed

Graham, Andrew; Adams, Jean

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to explore the frequency of alcohol marketing (both formal commercials and otherwise) in televised top-class English professional football matches. A purposive sample of six broadcasts (total = 1101 min) of televised top-class English club football matches were identified and recorded in full. A customized coding framework was used to identify and categorize all verbal and visual alcohol references in non-commercial broadcasting. The number and the duration of all formal alcohol commercials were also noted. A mean of 111 visual references and 2 verbal references to alcohol per hour of broadcast were identified. Nearly all visual references were to beer products and were primarily simple logos or branding. The majority of verbal alcohol references were related to title-sponsorship of competitions. A total of 17 formal alcohol commercials were identified, accounting for <1% of total broadcast time. Visual alcohol references in televised top-class English football matches are common with an average of nearly two per minute. Verbal references are rare and formal alcohol commercials account for <1% of broadcast time. Restriction of all alcohol sports sponsorship, as seen for tobacco, may be justified.

Drinking without thinking: an implicit measure of alcohol motivation predicts failure to control alcohol use.

PubMed

Ostafin, Brian D; Marlatt, G Alan; Greenwald, Anthony G

2008-11-01

Addiction is characterized by dyscontrol - substance use despite intentions to restrain. Using a sample of at-risk drinkers, the present study examined whether an implicit measure of alcohol motivation (the Implicit Association Test [IAT]; Greenwald, A.G., McGhee, D.E., & Schwartz, J.L.K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464-1480) would predict dyscontrol of alcohol use. Participants completed an IAT and, to elicit motivation to restrain alcohol use, were instructed that greater consumption in a taste test would impair performance on a later task for which they could win a prize. All participants viewed aversive slides and then completed a thought-listing task. Participants either exerted self-control by suppressing negative affect and thoughts regarding the slides or did not exert self-control. Post-manipulation, the groups did not differ in mood, urge to drink or motivation to restrain consumption. During the subsequent taste test, participants whose self-control resources were depleted consumed more alcohol than did those in the control group. Additionally, the IAT, but not an explicit measure of alcohol motivation, more strongly predicted alcohol use when self-control resources were depleted. The results indicate that the IAT may have utility in predicting dyscontrolled alcohol use.

Importance of alcohol-related expectations and emotional expressivity for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol in alcohol-dependent patients.

PubMed

Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of alcohol-dependent patients' emotional expressivity, alcohol-related expectations and socio-demographic factors for prediction of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. The study sample consisted of 136 alcohol-dependent patients (100 men and 36 women) undergoing treatment in Kaunas center for addictive disorders. Only higher expression of negative alcohol-related expectations (std. beta=0.192, P=0.023), higher emotional impulse intensity (std. beta=0.229, P=0.021) and higher expression of positive emotional expressiveness (std. beta=0.021, P=0.020) as well as gender (std. beta=0.180, P=0.049), education (std. beta=-0.137, P=0.038) and alcohol dependency treatment conditions (members of support group after rehabilitation program) (std. beta=0.288, P=0.001; std. beta=0.608, P=0.001) were significant factors for predicting the different level of alcohol-dependent patients motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. Negative alcohol-related expectations, emotional impulse intensity and positive emotional expressiveness were significant even though quite weak triggers for alcohol-dependent patients' different level of motivation to refuse alcohol consumption. An assumption could be made that by changing these triggers it is possible to change addictive behavior. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

PubMed

Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

2015-04-01

According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

2017-01-01

To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9-17. MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

Alcohol marketing and drunkenness among students in the Philippines: findings from the nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A largely unaddressed issue in lower income countries and the Philippines, in particular, is the role of alcohol marketing and its potential link to early alcohol use among youth. This study examines the associations between exposures to alcohol marketing and Filipino youths’ drinking prevalence and drunkenness. Methods Cross-sectional analyses were used to examine the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Philippines (2011). The self-administered questionnaires were completed by students primarily 13 to 16 years of age (N = 5290). Three statistical models were computed to test the associations between alcohol marketing and alcohol use, while controlling for possible confounding factors. Results Alcohol marketing, specifically through providing free alcohol through a company representative, was associated with drunkenness (AOR: 1.84; 95% CI = 1.06–3.21) among youths after controlling for demographic and psychosocial characteristics, peer environment, and risky behaviors. In addition, seeing alcohol ads in newspapers and magazines (AOR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.05–2.58) and seeing ads at sports events, concerts or fairs (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI = 1.06–2.12) were significantly associated with increased reports of drunkenness. Conclusions There are significant associations between alcohol marketing exposure and increased alcohol use and drunkenness among youth in the Philippines. These findings highlight the need to put policies into effect that restrict alcohol marketing practices as an important prevention strategy for reducing alcohol use and its dire consequences among vulnerable youth. PMID:24325264

Alcohol marketing on YouTube: exploratory analysis of content adaptation to enhance user engagement in different national contexts.

PubMed

Gupta, Himanshu; Lam, Tina; Pettigrew, Simone; Tait, Robert J

2018-01-16

We know little about how social media alcohol marketing is utilized for alcohol promotion in different national contexts. There does not appear to be any academic work on online exposure to alcohol marketing via social media in India, and most of the limited research in Australia has focused on Facebook. Hence, the present study extends previous research by investigating alcohol promotion conducted on an under-researched form of social media (YouTube) in two contrasting geographic contexts. This study examines and compares the types of strategies used by marketers on Indian and Australian alcohol brands with the greatest YouTube presence, and the extent to which users engage with these strategies. The 10 alcohol brands per country with the greatest YouTube presence were identified based on the number of 'subscriptions'. The number of videos, views per video, and the type of content within the videos were collected for each brand. The data were analyzed using an inductive coding approach, using NVivo 10. The targeted brands had gathered 98,881 subscriptions (Indian brands: n = 13,868; Australian brands: n = 85,013). The type of marketing strategies utilized by brands were a mix of those that differed by country (e.g. sexually suggestive content in India and posts related to the brand's tradition or heritage in Australia) and generic approaches (e.g. encouraging time- and event-specific drinking; demonstrations of food/cocktail recipes; camaraderie; competitions and prize draws; and brand sponsorship at music, sports, and fashion events). This cross-national comparison demonstrates that YouTube provides alcohol marketers with an advertising platform where they utilize tailored marketing approaches to cater to specific national contexts and develop content on the cultural meanings users invoke in their interactions with these strategies. Those exposed to alcohol marketing on YouTube are likely to include those under the legal drinking age.

Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Creswell, Kasey G.; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.

2015-01-01

Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12–18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems. PMID:25977842

Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

PubMed

Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

2014-09-01

Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

Habit Doesn’t Make the Predictions Stronger: Implicit Alcohol Associations and Habitualness Predict Drinking Uniquely

PubMed Central

Lindgren, Kristen P.; Neighbors, Clayton; Teachman, Bethany A.; Gasser, Melissa L.; Kaysen, Debra; Norris, Jeanette; Wiers, Reinout W.

2015-01-01

Introduction As research on implicit (in the sense of fast/reflexive/impulsive) alcohol associations and alcohol advances, there is increasing emphasis on understanding the circumstances under which implicit alcohol associations predict drinking. In this study, we investigated habitualness of drinking (i.e., the extent to which drinking is automatic or occurs without thinking) as a moderator of the relations between several measures of implicit alcohol associations and key drinking outcomes. Method A sample of 506 participants (57% female) completed web-based measures of implicit alcohol associations (drinking identity, alcohol approach, and alcohol excitement), along with indicators of habitualness, and typical alcohol consumption, alcohol problems, and risk of alcohol use disorders. Results As expected, implicit alcohol associations, especially drinking identity, were positively associated with, and predicted unique variance in, drinking outcomes. Further, habitualness emerged as a consistent, positive predictor of drinking outcomes. Contrary to expectations, habitualness rarely moderated the relation between implicit alcohol associations and drinking outcomes. Conclusions Although moderation was rarely observed, findings indicated that even mild levels of habitualness are risky. Findings also continue to support implicit alcohol associations, particularly drinking identity, as a risk factor for hazardous drinking. Collectively, this suggests the importance of targeting both in prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:25665917

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

PubMed

Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

2015-12-01

Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Alcohol expectancies longitudinally predict drinking and the alcohol myopia effects of relief, self-inflation, and excess.

PubMed

Lac, Andrew; Brack, Nathaniel

2018-02-01

Alcohol myopia theory posits that alcohol consumption attenuates information processing capacity, and that expectancy beliefs together with intake level are responsible for experiences in myopic effects (relief, self-inflation, and excess). Adults (N=413) averaging 36.39 (SD=13.02) years of age completed the Comprehensive Effects of Alcohol questionnaire at baseline, followed by alcohol use measures (frequency and quantity) and the Alcohol Myopia Scale one month later. Three structural equation models based on differing construct manifestations of alcohol expectancies served to longitudinally forecast alcohol use and myopia. In Model 1, overall expectancy predicted greater alcohol use and higher levels of all three myopic effects. In Model 2, specifying separate positive and negative expectancy factors, positive but not negative expectancy predicted greater use. Furthermore, positive expectancy and use explained higher myopic relief and higher self-inflation, whereas positive expectancy, negative expectancy, and use explained higher myopic excess. In Model 3, the seven specific expectancy subscales (sociability, tension reduction, liquid courage, sexuality, cognitive and behavioral impairment, risk and aggression, and self-perception) were simultaneously specified as predictors. Tension reduction expectancy, sexuality expectancy, and use contributed to higher myopic relief; sexuality expectancy and use explained higher myopic self-inflation; and risk and aggression expectancy and use accounted for higher myopic excess. Across all three predictive models, the total variance explained ranged from 12 to 19% for alcohol use, 50 to 51% for relief, 29 to 34% for self-inflation, and 32 to 35% for excess. Findings support that the type of alcohol myopia experienced is a concurrent function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels. The interpreted measurement manifestation of expectancy yielded different prevention implications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

PubMed

Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

2014-05-20

We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) were used to generate a Genetic Risk Prediction Score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating alcohol-dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress

Context Effects of Alcohol Availability at Home: Implicit Alcohol Associations and the Prediction of Adolescents' Drinking Behavior.

PubMed

Peeters, Margot; Koning, Ina; Monshouwer, Karin; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Wiers, Reinout W

2016-09-01

Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcohol-associated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this reasoning, we hypothesized that alcohol availability at home might moderate the relationship between implicit alcohol associations and future drinking behavior of adolescents. Participants were 262 at-risk adolescents (235 boys, 27 girls, adolescents with externalizing behavioral problems) with a mean age of 14.11 years (SD = 0.86, age range: 12-16 years) at baseline. Adolescents completed a questionnaire and a modified version of the Implicit Association Test (i.e., Single Category Implicit Association Test; SC-IAT). Stronger implicit alcohol associations predicted increase in frequency of alcohol use, only in adolescents who indicated that alcohol was available at home. No moderating effects were found for increase in quantity of alcohol use and problematic alcohol use, suggesting that implicit alcohol associations particularly influence the decision of whether to drink in adolescence. The findings illustrate that the availability of alcohol in the home setting influences adolescents' implicit alcohol associations and consequently affects the frequency of alcohol use. In this way, alcohol availability at home may be an important contextual factor to consider when examining the effect of implicit alcohol associations on the future drinking behavior of adolescents.

Predictive models of alcohol use based on attitudes and individual values.

PubMed

García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J

2013-01-01

Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.

Does Industry-Driven Alcohol Marketing Influence Adolescent Drinking Behaviour? A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Scott, Stephanie; Muirhead, Colin; Shucksmith, Janet; Tyrrell, Rachel; Kaner, Eileen

2017-01-01

Aim To systematically review evidence on the influence of specific marketing components (Price, Promotion, Product attributes and Place of sale/availability) on key drinking outcomes (initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity) in young people aged 9–17. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ProQuest were searched from inception to July 2015, supplemented with searches of Google Scholar, hand searches of key journals and backward and forward citation searches of reference lists of identified papers. Results Forty-eight papers covering 35 unique studies met inclusion criteria. Authors tended to report that greater exposure to alcohol marketing impacted on drinking initiation, continuation, frequency and intensity during adolescence. Nevertheless, 23 (66%) studies reported null results or negative associations, often in combination with positive associations, resulting in mixed findings within and across studies. Heterogeneity in study design, content and outcomes prevented estimation of effect sizes or exploration of variation between countries or age subgroups. The strength of the evidence base differed according to type of marketing exposure and drinking outcome studied, with support for an association between alcohol promotion (mainly advertising) and drinking outcomes in adolescence, whilst only two studies examined the relationship between alcohol price and the drinking behaviour of those under the age of 18. Conclusion Despite the volume of work, evidence is inconclusive in all four areas of marketing but strongest for promotional activity. Future research with standardized measures is needed to build on this work and better inform interventions and policy responses. PMID:27864186

An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

PubMed Central

Almenberg, Johan; Kittlitz, Ken; Pfeiffer, Thomas

2009-01-01

Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice. PMID:20041139

Reducing alcohol consumption among university students: recruitment and program design strategies based on Social Marketing Theory.

PubMed

Black, D R; Smith, M A

1994-09-01

Recruitment of program participants and development of appealing comprehensive alcohol abuse prevention programs is an exigent priority for university campuses due to the serious physical and emotional consequences related to alcohol consumption. A sample of 67 students from a large midwestern university completed a survey based on Social Marketing Theory (SMT) which was developed to improve recruitment and enhance the design of comprehensive alcohol abuse prevention programs. The results indicate that recruitment may be optimized by providing a flexible, convenient, low-cost program that encourages friends' participation, communicates alcohol-related risks and offers university credit or refund as participation incentives. The design of alcohol abuse prevention programs may be enhanced by emphasizing the positive outcomes of reducing alcohol consumption, improving the quality and quantity of alternatives to the social atmosphere connected with drinking, and soliciting respected opinion leaders (physicians and parents) to communicate alcohol reduction messages. This project is a first initiative to 'fill the gap' in the social marketing research literature by providing formative information pertinent to recruitment and design of alcohol reduction programs specifically for college students.

Price dynamics in political prediction markets

PubMed Central

Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

2009-01-01

Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

Mood and implicit alcohol expectancy processes: predicting alcohol consumption in the laboratory.

PubMed

Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P; Curtin, John J; Merrill, Jennifer E

2012-01-01

Implicit positive alcohol expectancy (PAE) processes are thought to respond phasically to external and internal stimuli-including mood states-and so they may exert powerful proximal influences over drinking behavior. Although social learning theory contends that mood states activate mood-congruent implicit PAEs, which in turn lead to alcohol use, there is a dearth of experimental research examining this mediation model relative to observable drinking. Moreover, an expectancy theory perspective might suggest that, rather than influencing PAEs directly, mood may moderate the association between PAEs and drinking. To test these models, this study examined the role of mood in the association between implicitly measured PAE processes (i.e., latency to endorse PAEs) and immediate alcohol consumption in the laboratory. Gender differences in these processes also were examined. College students (N = 146) were exposed to either a positive, negative, or neutral mood induction procedure, completed a computerized PAE reaction time (RT) task, and subsequently consumed alcohol ad libitum. The mood manipulation had no direct effects on drinking in the laboratory, making the mediation hypothesis irrelevant. Instead, gender and mood condition moderated the association between RT to endorse PAEs and drinking in the laboratory. For males, RT to tension reduction PAEs was a stronger predictor of volume of beer consumed and peak blood alcohol concentration in the context of general arousal (i.e., positive and negative mood) relative to neutral mood. RT to PAEs did not predict drinking in the laboratory for females. The results show that PAE processes are important determinants of immediate drinking behavior in men, suggesting that biased attention to mood-relevant PAEs-as indicated by longer RTs-predicts greater alcohol consumption in the appropriate mood context. The findings also highlight the need to consider gender differences in PAE processes. This study underscores the need for

Early adolescent exposure to alcohol advertising and its relationship to underage drinking.

PubMed

Collins, Rebecca L; Ellickson, Phyllis L; McCaffrey, Daniel; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

2007-06-01

To determine whether early adolescents who are exposed to alcohol marketing are subsequently more likely to drink. Recent studies suggest that exposure to alcohol ads has a limited influence on drinking in mid-adolescence. Early adolescents may be more vulnerable to alcohol advertising effects. Two in-school surveys of 1786 South Dakota youth measured exposure to television beer advertisements, alcohol ads in magazines, in-store beer displays and beer concessions, radio-listening time, and ownership of beer promotional items during 6th grade, and drinking intentions and behavior at 7th grade. Multivariate regression equations predicted the two drinking outcomes using the advertising exposure variables and controlling for psychosocial factors and prior drinking. After adjusting for covariates, the joint effect of exposure to advertising from all six sources at grade 6 was strongly predictive of grade 7 drinking and grade 7 intentions to drink. Youth in the 75th percentile of alcohol marketing exposure had a predicted probability of drinking that was 50% greater than that of youth in the 25th percentile. Although causal effects are uncertain, policy makers should consider limiting a variety of marketing practices that could contribute to drinking in early adolescence.

Can Twitter be used to predict county excessive alcohol consumption rates?

PubMed Central

Ashford, Robert D.; Hemmons, Jessie; Summers, Dan; Hamilton, Casey

2018-01-01

Objectives The current study analyzes a large set of Twitter data from 1,384 US counties to determine whether excessive alcohol consumption rates can be predicted by the words being posted from each county. Methods Data from over 138 million county-level tweets were analyzed using predictive modeling, differential language analysis, and mediating language analysis. Results Twitter language data captures cross-sectional patterns of excessive alcohol consumption beyond that of sociodemographic factors (e.g. age, gender, race, income, education), and can be used to accurately predict rates of excessive alcohol consumption. Additionally, mediation analysis found that Twitter topics (e.g. ‘ready gettin leave’) can explain much of the variance associated between socioeconomics and excessive alcohol consumption. Conclusions Twitter data can be used to predict public health concerns such as excessive drinking. Using mediation analysis in conjunction with predictive modeling allows for a high portion of the variance associated with socioeconomic status to be explained. PMID:29617408

Alcohol Marketing on Twitter and Instagram: Evidence of Directly Advertising to Youth/Adolescents.

PubMed

Barry, Adam E; Bates, Austin M; Olusanya, Olufunto; Vinal, Cystal E; Martin, Emily; Peoples, Janiene E; Jackson, Zachary A; Billinger, Shanaisa A; Yusuf, Aishatu; Cauley, Daunte A; Montano, Javier R

2016-07-01

Assess whether alcohol companies restrict youth/adolescent access, interaction, and exposure to their marketing on Twitter and Instagram. Employed five fictitious male and female Twitter (n = 10) and Instagram (n = 10) user profiles aged 13, 15, 17, 19 and/or 21. Using cellular smartphones, we determined whether profiles could (a) interact with advertising content-e.g. retweet, view video or picture content, comment, share URL; and/or (b) follow and directly receive advertising material updates from the official Instagram and Twitter pages of 22 alcohol brands for 30 days. All user profiles could fully access, view, and interact with alcohol industry content posted on Instagram and Twitter. Twitter's age-gate, which restricts access for those under 21, successfully prevented underage profiles from following and subsequently receiving promotional material/updates. The two 21+ profiles collectively received 1836 alcohol-related tweets within 30 days. All Instagram profiles, however, were able to follow all alcohol brand pages and received an average of 362 advertisements within 30 days. The quantity of promotional updates increased throughout the week, reaching their peak on Thursday and Friday. Representatives/controllers of alcohol brand Instagram pages would respond directly to our underage user's comments. The alcohol industry is in violation of their proposed self-regulation guidelines for digital marketing communications on Instagram. While Twitter's age-gate effectively blocked direct to phone updates, unhindered access to post was possible. Everyday our fictitious profiles, even those as young as 13, were bombarded with alcohol industry messages and promotional material directly to their smartphones. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

MAOA expression predicts vulnerability for alcohol use.

PubMed

Cervera-Juanes, R; Wilhem, L J; Park, B; Lee, R; Locke, J; Helms, C; Gonzales, S; Wand, G; Jones, S R; Grant, K A; Ferguson, B

2016-04-01

The role of the monoamines dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5HT) and the monoamine-metabolizing enzyme monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) have been repeatedly implicated in studies of alcohol use and dependence. Genetic investigations of MAOA have yielded conflicting associations between a common polymorphism (MAOA-LPR) and risk for alcohol abuse. The present study provides direct comparison of tissue-specific MAOA expression and the level of alcohol consumption. We analyzed rhesus macaque MAOA (rhMAOA) expression in blood from males before and after 12 months of alcohol self-administration. In addition, nucleus accumbens core (NAc core) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were collected from alcohol access and control (no alcohol access) subjects at the 12-month time point for comparison. The rhMAOA expression level in the blood of alcohol-naive subjects was negatively correlated with subsequent alcohol consumption level. The mRNA expression was independent of rhMAOA-LPR genotype and global promoter methylation. After 12 months of alcohol use, blood rhMAOA expression had decreased in an alcohol dose-dependent manner. Also after 12 months, rhMAOA expression in the NAc core was significantly lower in the heavy drinkers, as compared with control subjects. The CSF measured higher levels of DA and lower DOPAC/DA ratios among the heavy drinkers at the same time point. These results provide novel evidence that blood MAOA expression predicts alcohol consumption and that heavy alcohol use is linked to low MAOA expression in both the blood and NAc core. Together, the findings suggest a mechanistic link between dampened MAOA expression, elevated DA and alcohol abuse.

Adolescent Alcohol Use: Protective and Predictive Parent, Peer, and Self-Related Factors

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Candice D.; Crano, William D.

2018-01-01

Adolescent alcohol use has been linked with a multitude of problems and a trajectory predictive of problematic use in adulthood. Thus, targeting factors that enhance early prevention efforts is vital. The current study highlights variables that mitigate or predict alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking. Using Monitoring the Future (MTF) data, multiple path analytic models revealed links between parental involvement and alcohol abstinence and initiation. Parental involvement predicted enhanced self-esteem and less self-derogation and was negatively associated with peer alcohol norms for each MTF grade sampled, with stronger associations for 8th and 10th graders than 12th graders. For younger groups, self-esteem predicted increased perceptions of alcohol risk and reduced drinking. Self-derogation was associated with peers’ pro-alcohol norms, which was linked to lower risk perceptions, lower personal disapproval of use, and increased drinking. Peer influence had a stronger association with consumption for 8th and 10th graders, whereas 12th graders’ drinking was related to personal factors of alcohol risk perception and disapproval. In all grades, general alcohol use had a strong connection to heavy episodic drinking within the past 2 weeks. Across-grade variations in association of parent, peer, and personal factors suggest the desirability of tailored interventions focused on specific factors for each grade level, with the overall goal of attenuating adolescent alcohol use. PMID:27562038

A behavioral economic measure of demand for alcohol predicts brief intervention outcomes.

PubMed

MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G

2007-07-10

Considerable basic and clinical research supports a behavioral economic conceptualization of alcohol and drug dependence. One behavioral economic approach to assess motivation for a drug is the use of demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption and drug-reinforced responding across a range of prices. This study used a hypothetical alcohol purchase task to generate demand curves, and examined whether the resulting demand curve parameters predicted drinking outcomes following a brief intervention. Participants were 51 college student drinkers (67% female; 94% Caucasian; drinks/week: M=24.57, S.D.=8.77) who completed a brief alcohol intervention. Consistent with predictions, a number of demand curve indices significantly predicted post-intervention alcohol use and frequency of heavy drinking episodes, even after controlling for baseline drinking and other pertinent covariates. Most prominently, O(max) (i.e., maximum alcohol expenditure) and breakpoint (i.e., sensitivity of consumption to increasing price) predicted greater drinking at 6-month post-intervention follow-up. These results indicate that a behavioral economic measure of alcohol demand may have utility in characterizing the malleability of alcohol consumption. Moreover, these results support the utility of translating experimental assays of reinforcement into clinical research.

Emotion dysregulation and peer drinking norms uniquely predict alcohol-related problems via motives.

PubMed

Simons, Raluca M; Hahn, Austin M; Simons, Jeffrey S; Murase, Hanako

2017-08-01

This study examined the relationships between emotion dysregulation, peer drinking norms, drinking motives, and alcohol-related outcomes among 435 college students. We examined the mediating roles of drinking motives when predicting alcohol consumption and related problems from the subscales of the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS; Gratz and Roemer, 2004) via negative and positive reinforcement models. First, we hypothesized that individuals who lack in emotion regulation strategies or have difficulties in accepting negative emotions are more likely to drink to cope. Additionally, we hypothesized that individuals who act impulsively or become distracted when upset as well as those with higher peer drinking norms are more likely to drink for social and enhancement motives. The results of the path model indicated that limited access to emotion regulation strategies significantly predicted alcohol-related problems via both depression and anxiety coping motives, but did not predict alcohol consumption. Nonacceptance of emotional responses was not significantly associated with coping motives. Impulsivity had a significant direct relationship with alcohol problems. Difficulty in engaging in goal-directed behaviors predicted both enhancement and social motives, but only enhancement motives in turn predicted consumption. Norms indirectly predicted problems via enhancement motives and consumption. The results indicated that using alcohol to reduce negative or to increase positive emotions increases alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Overall, results advance our understanding of the mechanisms of increased alcohol use and problems among college students. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interrelationship between family history of alcoholism and generational status in the prediction of alcohol dependence in US Hispanics.

PubMed

Chartier, K G; Thomas, N S; Kendler, K S

2017-01-01

Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like US v. foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the United States. Data were from the waves 1 and 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4122; n = 1784 first, n = 1169 second, and n = 1169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming ⩾12 drinks in a 1-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first- and second-degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the United States, more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in US Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher-order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking.

One Size (Never) Fits All: Segment Differences Observed Following a School-Based Alcohol Social Marketing Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

2015-01-01

Background: According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methods: A sample of 371 year 10 students…

Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

PubMed Central

Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

2014-01-01

We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value SNPs in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG  (n=135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic  risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P=0.053) in separating  alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n=11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P=0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse

Internet filters and entry pages do not protect children from online alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Jones, Sandra C; Thom, Jeffrey A; Davoren, Sondra; Barrie, Lance

2014-02-01

We review programs and policies to prevent children from accessing alcohol marketing online. To update the literature, we present our recent studies that assess (i) in-built barriers to underage access to alcohol brand websites and (ii) commercial internet filters. Alcohol websites typically had poor filter systems for preventing entry of underage persons; only half of the sites required the user to provide a date of birth, and none had any means of preventing users from trying again. Even the most effective commercial internet filters allowed access to one-third of the sites we examined.

Early Adolescent Exposure to Alcohol Advertising and Its Relationship to Underage Drinking

PubMed Central

Collins, Rebecca L.; Ellickson, Phyllis L.; McCaffrey, Daniel; Hambarsoomians, Katrin

2009-01-01

Purpose To determine whether early adolescents who are exposed to alcohol marketing are subsequently more likely to drink. Recent studies suggest that exposure to alcohol ads has a limited influence on drinking in mid-adolescence. Early adolescents may be more vulnerable to alcohol advertising effects. Methods Two in-school surveys of 1,786 South Dakota youth measured exposure to television beer advertisements, alcohol ads in magazines, in-store beer displays and beer concessions, radio-listening time, and ownership of beer promotional items during sixth grade, and drinking intentions and behavior at seventh grade. Multivariate regression equations predicted the two drinking outcomes using the advertising exposure variables and controlling for psychosocial factors and prior drinking. Results After adjusting for covariates, the joint effect of exposure to advertising from all six sources at Grade 6 was strongly predictive of Grade 7 drinking and Grade 7 intentions to drink. Youth in the 75th percentile of alcohol marketing exposure had a predicted probability of drinking that was 50% greater than that of youth in the 25th percentile. Conclusions Although causal effects are uncertain, policy makers should consider limiting a variety of marketing practices that could contribute to drinking in early adolescence. PMID:17531759

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Alcohols Reduce Lateral Membrane Pressures: Predictions from Molecular Theory

PubMed Central

Frischknecht, Amalie L.; Frink, Laura J. Douglas

2006-01-01

We explore the effects of alcohols on fluid lipid bilayers using a molecular theory with a coarse-grained model. We show that the trends predicted from the theory in the changes in area per lipid, alcohol concentration in the bilayer, and area compressibility modulus, as a function of alcohol chain length and of the alcohol concentration in the solvent far from the bilayer, follow those found experimentally. We then use the theory to study the effect of added alcohol on the lateral pressure profile across the membrane, and find that added alcohol reduces the surface tensions at both the headgroup/solvent and headgroup/tailgroup interfaces, as well as the lateral pressures in the headgroup and tailgroup regions. These changes in lateral pressures could affect the conformations of membrane proteins, providing a nonspecific mechanism for the biological effects of alcohols on cells. PMID:16980354

Alcohol sponsorship of a summer of sport: a frequency analysis of alcohol marketing during major sports events on New Zealand television.

PubMed

Chambers, Tim; Signal, Louise; Carter, Mary-Ann; McConville, Samuel; Wong, Rebecca; Zhu, Wendy

2017-01-13

This research aims to assess the nature and extent of alcohol marketing through sport sponsorship over a summer of televised sport in New Zealand. Frequency analysis of New Zealand television broadcasts of five international sporting events during the summer of 2014-2015. Broadcasts were analysed to identify the percentage of time when alcohol brands were visible during game-play. The number of independent alcohol brand exposures was recorded. Alcohol brands were observed during every televised event. Audiences were exposed to between 1.6 and 3.8 alcohol brand exposures per minute. Alcohol brands were visible between 42 and 777 times across the games examined. For three out of the five events alcohol brands were visible for almost half of the game. Alcohol sponsorship was prevalent in international sport on New Zealand television. Given the popularity of broadcast sport, especially with children, there is an urgent need for regulation of alcohol sponsorship of sport. There are viable models of alcohol sponsorship replacement but their implementation requires the will of both sporting organisations and politicians. This research adds weight to arguments to implement recommendations to remove all alcohol sponsorship of sport.

A simple risk scoring system for prediction of relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mads Uffe; Hesse, Morten

2009-01-01

Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist. Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment. The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment. The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.

Alcohol-related incident guardianship and undergraduate college parties: enhancing the social norms marketing approach.

PubMed

Gilbertson, Troy A

2006-01-01

This randomized experiment examines the effects of contextual information on undergraduate college student's levels of alcohol-related incident guardianship at college parties. The research is conceptualized using routine activities theory and the theory of planned behavior. The experiment examines attitudinal variations about heavy drinking differentiated by sex, athletic status, and location of the drinking event. The sex and athletic status variables produce statistically effects on the dependent variables, while location of the drinking event is not significant. The article concludes by discussing the importance of context as it pertains to the social norms marketing strategy utilized in much college alcohol programming, and suggests a more directed marketing approach.

Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

2018-04-01

Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

Immediate effects of alcohol marketing communications and media portrayals on consumption and cognition: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies.

PubMed

Stautz, Kaidy; Brown, Kyle G; King, Sarah E; Shemilt, Ian; Marteau, Theresa M

2016-06-09

Restricting marketing of alcoholic products is purported to be a cost-effective intervention to reduce alcohol consumption. The strength of evidence supporting this claim is contested. This systematic review aimed to assess immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing on alcoholic beverage consumption and related cognitions. Electronic searches of nine databases, supplemented with reference list searches and forward citation tracking, were used to identify randomised, experimental studies assessing immediate effects of exposure to alcohol marketing communications on objective alcohol consumption (primary outcome), explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions, or selection without purchasing (secondary outcomes). Study limitations were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate effect sizes. Twenty four studies met the eligibility criteria. A meta-analysis integrating seven studies (758 participants, all students) found that viewing alcohol advertisements increased immediate alcohol consumption relative to viewing non-alcohol advertisements (SMD = 0.20, 95 % CI = 0.05, 0.34). A meta-analysis integrating six studies (631 participants, all students) did not find that viewing alcohol portrayals in television programmes or films increased consumption (SMD = 0.16, 95 % CI = -0.05, 0.37). Meta-analyses of secondary outcome data found that exposure to alcohol portrayals increased explicit alcohol-related cognitions, but did not find that exposure to alcohol advertisements influenced explicit or implicit alcohol-related cognitions. Confidence in results is diminished by underpowered analyses and unclear risk of bias. Viewing alcohol advertisements (but not alcohol portrayals) may increase immediate alcohol consumption by small amounts, equivalent to between 0.39 and 2.67 alcohol units for males and between 0.25 and 1.69 units for females. The generalizability of this finding

Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

PubMed

Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2014-01-01

Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2014-01-01

Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling. PMID:24632944

Alcohol Consumption and Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes.

PubMed

Böckerman, Petri; Hyytinen, Ari; Maczulskij, Terhi

2017-03-01

This paper examines whether alcohol consumption is related to long-term labor market outcomes. We use twin data for Finnish men and women matched to register-based individual information on employment and earnings. The twin data allow us to account for the shared environmental and genetic factors. The quantity of alcohol consumption was measured by weekly average consumption using self-reported data from three surveys (1975, 1981 and 1990). The average of an individual's employment months and earnings were measured in adulthood over the period 1990-2009. The models that account for the shared environmental and genetic factors reveal that former drinkers and heavy drinkers both have almost 20% lower earnings compared with moderate drinkers. On average, former drinkers work annually approx. 1 month less over the 20-year observation period. These associations are robust to the use of covariates, such as education, pre-existing health endowment and smoking. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FAMILY HISTORY OF ALCOHOLISM AND GENERATIONAL STATUS IN THE PREDICTION OF ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE IN U.S. HISPANICS

PubMed Central

Chartier, Karen G.; Thomas, Nathaniel S.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

Background Both a family history of alcoholism and migration-related factors like U.S. versus foreign nativity increase the risk for developing alcohol use disorders in Hispanic Americans. For this study, we integrated these two lines of research to test whether the relationship between familial alcoholism and alcohol dependence changes with successive generations in the U.S. Methods Data were from the wave 1 and wave 2 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Subjects self-identified Hispanic ethnicity (N = 4,122; n = 1,784 first, n = 1,169 second, and n = 1,169 third or later generation) and reported ever consuming 12 or more drinks in a one-year period. A family history of alcoholism was assessed in first and second degree relatives. Analyses predicting the number of alcohol dependence symptoms were path models. Results Alcohol dependence symptoms were associated with a stronger family history of alcoholism and later generational status. There was a significant interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status; the relationship of familial alcoholism with alcohol dependence symptoms increased significantly with successive generations in the U.S., more strongly in women than men. Acculturation partially mediated the interaction effect between familial alcoholism and generational status on alcohol dependence, although not in the expected direction. Conclusions Familial alcoholism interacted with generational status in predicting alcohol dependence symptoms in U.S. Hispanic drinkers. This relationship suggests that heritability for alcoholism is influenced by a higher order environmental factor, likely characterized by a relaxing of social restrictions on drinking. PMID:27681653

Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

2008-07-01

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

Does industry self-regulation protect young people from exposure to alcohol marketing? A review of compliance and complaint studies.

PubMed

Noel, Jonathan K; Babor, Thomas F

2017-01-01

Exposure to alcohol marketing is considered to be potentially harmful to adolescents. In addition to statutory regulation, industry self-regulation is a common way to protect adolescents from alcohol marketing exposures. This paper critically reviews research designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the alcohol industry's compliance procedures to manage complaints when alcohol marketing is considered to have violated a self-regulatory code. Peer-reviewed papers were identified through four literature search engines: PubMed, SCOPUS, PsychINFO and CINAHL. Non-peer-reviewed reports produced by public health agencies, alcohol research centers, non-governmental organizations, government research centers and national industry advertising associations were also included. The search process yielded three peer-reviewed papers, seven non-peer reviewed reports published by academic institutes and non-profit organizations and 20 industry reports. The evidence indicates that the complaint process lacks standardization across countries, industry adjudicators may be trained inadequately or biased and few complaints are upheld against advertisements pre-determined to contain violations of a self-regulatory code. The current alcohol industry marketing complaint process used in a wide variety of countries may be ineffective at removing potentially harmful content from the market-place. The process of determining the validity of complaints employed by most industry groups appears to suffer from serious conflict of interest and procedural weaknesses that could compromise objective adjudication of even well-documented complaints. In our opinion the current system of self-regulation needs major modifications if it is to serve public health objectives, and more systematic evaluations of the complaint process are needed. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

PubMed

Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

2017-05-31

Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among College Students in the US and South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Sang-Yeon; Ahn, Seokhoon; Lim, Tae-Seop

2015-01-01

This study examines contributing factors of alcohol misuse among college students in South Korea and the U.S. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) on measurements of alcohol expectancy, alcohol efficacy, and accommodation resulted in social and personal causes for alcohol misuse. Social causes alone predicted alcohol misuse for both countries. Social factors constituted a much stronger predictor of alcohol misuse among South Korean students than among American students. Practical implications for effective deterrence of student binge drinking are discussed.

The sales and marketing practices of English-language internet alcohol vendors.

PubMed

Williams, Rebecca S; Schmidt, Allison

2014-03-01

This study aimed to fill information gaps about the sales and marketing practices of internet alcohol vendors and their implications for addressing youth access and other legal violations. Further, it aimed to expand the limited scientific literature on internet alcohol sales using systematic survey methods to inform future efforts to regulate this industry and prevent sales to minors. The design was a cross-sectional website content analysis survey. [Not applicable]. A total of 105 internet alcohol vendor websites. Six key content analysis topics were explored: products offered, average prices and proportions of vendors using different promotions, policy statements and methods for age verification, payment and delivery. Websites sell and promote a variety of alcohol products, offered as cheaply as $1.93 for a 750-ml bottle. Vendors rely heavily upon age verification methods that are unlikely to prevent sales to minors. Many vendors advertise shipping of products via methods through which it is illegal or against delivery company policies to transport alcohol, and 99% of vendors accept credit cards. Limiting and enforcing delivery and payment options are types of policy interventions that have been used successfully with internet cigarette vendors that may be applicable to internet alcohol vendors as well. Internet alcohol vendor practices are insufficient to prevent sales to minors, and need further regulation and enforcement of existing policies. Their sales practices are similar to those of internet cigarette vendors prior to regulation, and similar regulatory approaches may be effective in reducing internet alcohol sales to minors. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Self-Reported Youth and Adult Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Traditional and Digital Media: Results of a Pilot Survey.

PubMed

Jernigan, David H; Padon, Alisa; Ross, Craig; Borzekowski, Dina

2017-03-01

Alcohol marketing is known to be a significant risk factor for underage drinking. However, little is known about youth and adult exposure to alcohol advertising in digital and social media. This study piloted a comparative assessment of youth and adult recall of exposure to online marketing of alcohol. From September to October 2013, a pilot survey of past 30-day exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content in traditional and digital media was administered to a national sample of 1,192 youth (ages 13 to 20) and 1,124 adults (ages ≥21) using a prerecruited Internet panel maintained by GfK Custom Research. The weighted proportions of youth and adults who reported this exposure were compared by media type and by advertising and promotional content. Youth were more likely than adults to recall exposure to alcohol advertising on television (69.2% vs. 61.9%), radio (24.8% vs. 16.7%), billboards (54.8% vs. 35.4%), and the Internet (29.7% vs. 16.8%), but less likely to recall seeing advertising in magazines (35.7% vs. 36.4%). Youth were also more likely to recall seeing advertisements and pictures on the Internet of celebrities using alcohol (36.1% vs. 20.8%) or wearing clothing promoting alcohol (27.7% vs. 15.9%), and actively respond (i.e., like, share, or post) to alcohol-related content online. Youth report greater exposure to alcohol advertising and promotional content than adults in most media, including on the Internet. These findings emphasize the need to assure compliance with voluntary industry standards on the placement of alcohol advertising and the importance of developing better tools for monitoring youth exposure to alcohol marketing, particularly on the Internet. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Evaluating the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts.

PubMed

Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M; Adkins, Amy

2018-04-01

To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science Study, a longitudinal study of students' substance use and emotional health. Participants were e-mailed an online survey that queried campaign readership, perception of peer alcohol use, alcohol consumption, frequency of consumption, and frequency of blackouts. Associations between variables were evaluated using path analysis. We found that campaign readership was associated with more accurate perceptions of peer alcohol use, which, in turn, was associated with self-reported lower number of drinks per sitting and experiencing fewer blackouts. This evaluation supports the use of social norms marketing as a population-level intervention to correct alcohol-use misperceptions and reduce blackouts.

Alcohol operant self-administration: Investigating how alcohol-seeking behaviors predict drinking in mice using two operant approaches

PubMed Central

Blegen, Mariah B.; Silva, Daniel da Silva E; Bock, Roland; Morisot, Nadege; Ron, Dorit; Alvarez, Veronica A.

2018-01-01

Alcohol operant self-administration paradigms are critical tools for studying the neural circuits implicated in both alcohol-seeking and consummatory behaviors and for understanding the neural basis underlying alcohol-use disorders. In this study, we investigate the predictive value of two operant models of oral alcohol self-administration in mice, one in which alcohol is delivered into a cup following nose-poke responses with no accurate measurement of consumed alcohol solution, and another paradigm that provides access to alcohol via a sipper tube following lever presses and where lick rate and consumed alcohol volume can be measured. The goal was to identify a paradigm where operant behaviors such as lever presses and nose pokes, as well as other tracked behavior such as licks and head entries, can be used to reliably predict blood alcohol concentration (BAC). All mice were first exposed to alcohol in the home cage using the “drinking in the dark” (DID) procedure for 3 weeks and then were trained in alcohol self-administration using either of the operant paradigms for several weeks. Even without sucrose fading or food pre-training, mice acquired alcohol self-administration with both paradigms. However, neither lever press nor nose-poke rates were good predictors of alcohol intake or BAC. Only the lick rate and consumed alcohol were consistently and significantly correlated with BAC. Using this paradigm that accurately measures alcohol intake, unsupervised cluster analysis revealed three groups of mice: high-drinking (43%), low-drinking (37%), and non-drinking mice (20%). High-drinking mice showed faster acquisition of operant responding and achieved higher BACs than low-drinking mice. Lick rate and volume consumed varied with the alcohol concentration made available only for high- and low-drinking mice, but not for non-drinking mice. In addition, high- and low-drinking mice showed similar patterns during extinction and significant cue-induced reinstatement

Alcoholism and alcohol drinking habits predicted from alcohol dehydrogenase genes.

PubMed

Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Nordestgaard, Børge Grønne; Rasmussen, Søren; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Grønbaek, Morten

2008-06-01

Alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism are partly genetically determined. Alcohol is degraded primarily by alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) wherein genetic variation that affects the rate of alcohol degradation is found in ADH1B and ADH1C. It is biologically plausible that these variations may be associated with alcohol drinking habits and alcoholism. By genotyping 9080 white men and women from the general population, we found that men and women with ADH1B slow vs fast alcohol degradation drank more alcohol and had a higher risk of everyday drinking, heavy drinking, excessive drinking and of alcoholism. For example, the weekly alcohol intake was 9.8 drinks (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1-11) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to 7.5 drinks (95% CI: 6.4-8.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype, and the odds ratio (OR) for heavy drinking was 3.1 (95% CI: 1.7-5.7) among men with the ADH1B.1/1 genotype compared to men with the ADH1B.1/2 genotype. Furthermore, individuals with ADH1C slow vs fast alcohol degradation had a higher risk of heavy and excessive drinking. For example, the OR for heavy drinking was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.8) among men with the ADH1C.1/2 genotype and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0-1.9) among men with the ADH1B.2/2 genotype, compared with men with the ADH1C.1/1 genotype. Results for ADH1B and ADH1C genotypes among men and women were similar. Finally, because slow ADH1B alcohol degradation is found in more than 90% of the white population compared to less than 10% of East Asians, the population attributable risk of heavy drinking and alcoholism by ADH1B.1/1 genotype was 67 and 62% among the white population compared with 9 and 24% among the East Asian population.

Reward System Activation in Response to Alcohol Advertisements Predicts College Drinking.

PubMed

Courtney, Andrea L; Rapuano, Kristina M; Sargent, James D; Heatherton, Todd F; Kelley, William M

2018-01-01

In this study, we assess whether activation of the brain's reward system in response to alcohol advertisements is associated with college drinking. Previous research has established a relationship between exposure to alcohol marketing and underage drinking. Within other appetitive domains, the relationship between cue exposure and behavioral enactment is known to rely on activation of the brain's reward system. However, the relationship between neural activation to alcohol advertisements and alcohol consumption has not been studied in a nondisordered population. In this cross-sectional study, 53 college students (32 women) completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan while viewing alcohol, food, and control (car and technology) advertisements. Afterward, they completed a survey about their alcohol consumption (including frequency of drinking, typical number of drinks consumed, and frequency of binge drinking) over the previous month. In 43 participants (24 women) meeting inclusion criteria, viewing alcohol advertisements elicited activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex and bilateral ventral striatum-regions of the reward system that typically activate to other appetitive rewards and relate to consumption behaviors. Moreover, the level of self-reported drinking correlated with the magnitude of activation in the left orbitofrontal cortex. Results suggest that alcohol cues are processed within the reward system in a way that may motivate drinking behavior.

Stock market index prediction using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

1994-03-01

A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

Global alcohol policy and the alcohol industry.

PubMed

Anderson, Peter

2009-05-01

The WHO is preparing its global strategy on alcohol, and, in so doing, has been asked to consult with the alcohol industry on ways it could contribute in reducing the harm done by alcohol. This review asks which is more effective in reducing harm: the regulatory approaches that the industry does not favour; or the educational approaches that it does favour. The current literature overwhelmingly finds that regulatory approaches (including those that manage the price, availability, and marketing of alcohol) reduce the risk of and the experience of alcohol-related harm, whereas educational approaches (including school-based education and public education campaigns) do not, with industry-funded education actually increasing the risk of harm. The alcohol industry should not be involved in making alcohol policy. Its involvement in implementing policy should be restricted to its role as a producer, distributor, and marketer of alcohol. In particular, the alcohol industry should not be involved in educational programmes, as such involvement could actually lead to an increase in harm.

The geography of violence, alcohol outlets, and drug arrests in Boston.

PubMed

Lipton, Robert; Yang, Xiaowen; Braga, Anthony A; Goldstick, Jason; Newton, Manya; Rura, Melissa

2013-04-01

We examined the relationship between alcohol outlets, drug markets (approximated by arrests for possession and trafficking), and violence in Boston, Massachusetts, in 2006. We analyzed geographic and environmental versus individual factors related to violence and identified areas high in violent crime. We used data from the Boston Police Department, US Census, and Massachusetts State Alcohol Beverage Control Commission. Spatial modeling was employed at the block group level, and violent crime, alcohol outlets, and drug markets were mapped. Relative to other block groups, block groups in the highest decile of violent crime (n = 55) were found to be poorer (e.g., lower incomes, higher percentages of vacant homes), and they had greater numbers of alcohol outlets and higher drug arrest rates. Alcohol outlets and drug possession and trafficking arrests were predictive of violent crime. Also, spatial effects resulting from neighboring block groups were related to violent crime. Both alcohol outlet density and type were associated with violent crime in a differentiated and complex way. With drug possession and trafficking arrests as a proxy for drug markets, spatial relationships between alcohol outlets and violence were found in addition to typical sociodemographic predictors.

The Geography of Violence, Alcohol Outlets, and Drug Arrests in Boston

PubMed Central

Yang, Xiaowen; A. Braga, Anthony; Goldstick, Jason; Newton, Manya; Rura, Melissa

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the relationship between alcohol outlets, drug markets (approximated by arrests for possession and trafficking), and violence in Boston, Massachusetts, in 2006. We analyzed geographic and environmental versus individual factors related to violence and identified areas high in violent crime. Methods. We used data from the Boston Police Department, US Census, and Massachusetts State Alcohol Beverage Control Commission. Spatial modeling was employed at the block group level, and violent crime, alcohol outlets, and drug markets were mapped. Results. Relative to other block groups, block groups in the highest decile of violent crime (n = 55) were found to be poorer (e.g., lower incomes, higher percentages of vacant homes), and they had greater numbers of alcohol outlets and higher drug arrest rates. Alcohol outlets and drug possession and trafficking arrests were predictive of violent crime. Also, spatial effects resulting from neighboring block groups were related to violent crime. Both alcohol outlet density and type were associated with violent crime in a differentiated and complex way. Conclusions. With drug possession and trafficking arrests as a proxy for drug markets, spatial relationships between alcohol outlets and violence were found in addition to typical sociodemographic predictors. PMID:23409885

Heart rate variability predicts alcohol craving in alcohol dependent outpatients: further evidence for HRV as a psychophysiological marker of self-regulation.

PubMed

Quintana, Daniel S; Guastella, Adam J; McGregor, Iain S; Hickie, Ian B; Kemp, Andrew H

2013-09-01

Past research has highlighted an important role of the autonomic nervous system in alcohol dependence and capacity for self-regulation. While previous studies have examined alcohol dependent inpatients, it remains unclear whether resting-state HRV, a potential psychophysiological marker of ones capacity for self-regulation, is related to craving in patients who currently consume alcohol. Thus, the aim of the present study was to determine whether HRV predicts alcohol craving in dependent individuals in the community. Resting-state HRV and alcohol craving, as indexed by the obsessive compulsive drinking scale, were assessed in 26 alcohol dependent outpatients. Results supported hypotheses indicating that HRV accounts for an additional 12.1% of the variance in craving after controlling for age, anxiety and levels of alcohol consumption. Here we show for the first time that resting-state HRV predicts craving in alcohol dependent outpatients. Results provide important new evidence for a role of the autonomic nervous system in the maintenance of dependence disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social Marketing Strategies for Campus Prevention of Alcohol and Other Drug Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Robert

This document sets out one segment of a comprehensive approach intended to assist institutions of higher education in developing and carrying out alcohol abuse and other drug prevention programs. Social marketing is described as a tool of environmental management, that seeks to produce a specified behavior in a target audience. Intended for a…

Predicting Alcohol-Impaired Driving among Spanish Youth with the Theory of Reasoned Action.

PubMed

Espada, José P; Griffin, Kenneth W; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia

2015-06-19

Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for motor vehicle accidents in young drivers. Crashes associated with alcohol consumption typically have greater severity. This study examines the prevalence of driving under the influence among Spanish youth and tests the theory of reasoned action as a model for predicting driving under the influence. Participants included 478 Spanish university students aged 17-26 years. Findings indicated that alcohol was the substance most associated with impaired driving, and was involved in more traffic crashes. Men engage in higher levels of alcohol and other drug use, and perceived less risk in drunk driving (p < .01). The study confirms that alcohol use and driving under the influence of alcohol are highly prevalent in Spanish young people, and some gender differences exist in these behaviors (p < .01). Furthermore, the study confirms the validity of theory of reasoned action as a predictive model of driving under the influence of alcohol among youth in Spain (p < .001) and can help in the design of prevention programs.

An Exploration of the Associations of Alcohol-Related Social Media Use and Message Interpretation Outcomes to Problem Drinking Among College Students.

PubMed

Hoffman, Eric W; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E; Austin, Bruce W

2017-07-01

College students' use of digital communication technology has led to a rapid expansion of digital alcohol marketing efforts. Two surveys (total usable n = 637) were conducted to explore college students' experiences with alcohol-related social media, their decision making related to alcohol use, and their problematic drinking behaviors. Study results indicated that students' use of alcohol-related social media predicted their problem drinking behaviors. In addition, students' wishful identification, perceived desirability, perceived similarity, and normative beliefs predicted their expectancies for drinking alcohol. Finally, students' expectancies for drinking alcohol predicted their problematic drinking behaviors.

Development and Validation of a Risk Model for Prediction of Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in General Practice Attendees: The PredictAL Study

PubMed Central

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I.; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Background Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. Results 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse. PMID:21853028

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

PubMed

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

volume helps management set production levels, but if management increases advertising it will undermine the market . This becomes critical for the DoD...34 Corporate Strategy Board. Gaspoz, C. (2008). "Prediction markets as an innovative way to manage R&D portfolios." CAiSE Doctoral Consortium. Montpellier...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

PubMed Central

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

Behavioral Impulsivity Does Not Predict Naturalistic Alcohol Consumption or Treatment Outcomes

PubMed Central

Mullen, Jillian; Mathias, Charles W.; Karns, Tara E.; Liang, Yuanyuan; Hill-Kapturczak, Nathalie; Roache, John D.; Lamb, Richard J.; Dougherty, Donald M.

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to determine if behavioral impulsivity under multiple conditions (baseline, after alcohol consumption or after serotonin depletion) predicted naturalistic alcohol use or treatment outcomes from a moderation-based contingency management intervention. Method The current data analysis pulls information from three phases of a large study: 1) Phase 1 examined baseline and the effects of alcohol use and serotonin depletion on three types of behavioral impulsivity: response initiation (IMT task), response inhibition (GoStop task), and delay discounting (SKIP task); 2) Phase 2 involved 28 days of naturalistic drinking; and 3) Phase 3 involved 3 months of contingency management. During phases 2 and 3 alcohol use was measured objectively using transdermal alcohol monitors. The results of each individual phase has been previously published showing that at a group level the effects of alcohol consumption on impulsivity were dependent on the component of impulsivity being measured and the dose of alcohol consumed but serotonin depletion had no effect on impulsivity, and that a moderation-based contingency management intervention reduced heavy drinking. Results The current analysis combining data from those who completed all three phases (n = 67) showed that impulsivity measured at baseline, after alcohol consumption, or after serotonin depletion did not predict naturalistic drinking or treatment outcomes from a moderation-based CM treatment. Conclusions Contingency management interventions may prove to be an effective intervention for impulsive individuals, however, normal variations in measured impulsivity do not seem to relate to normal variations in drinking pattern or response to moderation-based contingency management. PMID:27746702

Participant-Predicted, Observed, and Calculated Peak Blood Alcohol Levels: A Gender-Specific Analysis

PubMed Central

Van Tassel, W.E.; Manser, M.P.

2000-01-01

In recent years there has been a push by federal and state governments to lower the maximum blood alcohol level at which drivers are considered intoxicated. Many states have lowered the maximum blood alcohol level to .08%. This paper offers insight into drinkers’ ability to predict their level of impairment prior to consuming a given amount of alcohol. It addresses the problem of drinkers not knowing how many drinks they can consume before becoming legally impaired. Results indicate males and females differ in their ability to predict impairment levels. PMID:11558094

The Alcohol Environment Protocol: A new tool for alcohol policy.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Morojele, Neo; Williams, Petal Petersen; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Gordon, Ross; Gray-Philip, Gaile; Viet Cuong, Pham; MacKintosh, Anne-Marie; Halliday, Sharon; Railton, Renee; Randerson, Steve; Parry, Charles D H

2018-01-04

To report data on the implementation of alcohol policies regarding availability and marketing, and drink driving, along with ratings of enforcement from two small high-income to three high-middle income countries, and one low-middle income country. This study uses the Alcohol Environment Protocol, an International Alcohol Control study research tool, which documents the alcohol policy environment by standardised collection of data from administrative sources, observational studies and interviews with key informants to allow for cross-country comparison and change over time. All countries showed adoption to varying extents of key effective policy approaches outlined in the World Health Organization Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol (2010). High-income countries were more likely to allocate resources to enforcement. However, where enforcement and implementation were high, policy on availability was fairly liberal. Key Informants judged alcohol to be very available in both high- and middle-income countries, reflecting liberal policy in the former and less implementation and enforcement and informal (unlicensed) sale of alcohol in the latter. Marketing was largely unrestricted in all countries and while drink-driving legislation was in place, it was less well enforced in middle-income countries. In countries with fewer resources, alcohol policies are less effective because of lack of implementation and enforcement and, in the case of marketing, lack of regulation. This has implications for the increase in consumption taking place as a result of the expanding distribution and marketing of commercial alcohol and consequent increases in alcohol-related harm. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Predicting Heavy Alcohol Use in College Students: Interactions Among Socialization of Coping, Alcohol Use Onset, and Physiological Reactivity.

PubMed

Stanger, Sarah; Abaied, Jamie; Wagner, Caitlin

2016-05-01

Early age at onset of alcohol use is a risk factor for later heavy alcohol use, but some individuals are buffered from this risk. To better understand this process, this study investigated the interactive contributions of parental coping suggestions, skin conductance level reactivity (SCLR), and age at onset of alcohol use on heavy alcohol use in college students. College students (N = 146, 77% female) reported their age at onset of alcohol use, frequency of recent heavy alcohol use, and their parents' coping suggestions; SCLR was monitored as participants completed a laboratory challenge task. In addition, students' parents (N = 73, 77% mothers) reported on their coping suggestions. Results indicated that in the presence of physiological risk only (blunted SCLR, late age at onset of alcohol use), higher frequencies of engagement and disengagement parental coping suggestions were protective against heavy alcohol use in college students. However, if both risk factors were present (blunted SCLR, early age at onset of alcohol use), more engagement suggestions predicted more heavy alcohol use among college students. These findings extend previous findings on the impact of parenting on heavy alcohol use among college students and provide novel evidence for the moderating role of sympathetic stress reactivity.

Implicit identification with drug and alcohol use predicts retention in residential rehabilitation programs.

PubMed

Wolff, Nathan; von Hippel, Courtney; Brener, Loren; von Hippel, William

2015-03-01

Research has identified numerous factors associated with successful treatment in alcohol and drug rehabilitation programs, yet treatment completion rates are often low and subsequent relapse rates very high. We propose that people's implicit identification with drugs and alcohol may be an additional factor that impacts their ability to complete abstinence-based rehabilitation programs. In the current research, we measured implicit identification with drugs and alcohol using the Implicit Association Test (Greenwald, McGhee, & Schwartz, 1998) among 137 members of a residential rehabilitation program for drugs and alcohol (104 men; mean age = 35 years old, 47 of whom were court-ordered to attend). Implicit identification with drugs and alcohol was measured within 1 week of arrival and again 3 weeks later, prior to the onset of the treatment phase of the program. Duration in rehabilitation was assessed 1 year later. Consistent with predictions, implicit identification with drugs and alcohol predicted the duration that people remained in residential rehabilitation even though a self-report measure of identification with drugs and alcohol did not. These results suggest that implicit identification with drugs and alcohol might be an important predictor of treatment outcomes, even among those with serious problems with drug and alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The marketing potential of corporate social responsibility activities: the case of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed

Pantani, Daniela; Peltzer, Raquel; Cremonte, Mariana; Robaina, Katherine; Babor, Thomas; Pinsky, Ilana

2017-01-01

The aims were to: (1) identify, monitor and analyse the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of the alcohol industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and (2) examine whether the alcohol industry is using these actions to market their products and brands. Nine health experts from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay conducted a content analysis of 218 CSR activities using a standardized protocol. A content rating procedure was used to evaluate the marketing potential of CSR activities as well as their probable population reach and effectiveness. The LEAD procedure (longitudinal, expert and all data) was applied to verify the accuracy of industry-reported descriptions. A total of 55.8% of the actions were found to have a marketing potential, based on evidence that they are likely to promote brands and products. Actions with marketing potential were more likely to reach a larger audience than actions classified with no marketing potential. Most actions did not fit into any category recommended by the World Health Organization; 50% of the actions involving classroom and college education for young people were found to have marketing potential; 62.3% were classified as meeting the definition of risk management CSR. Alcohol industry Corporate Social Responsibility activities in Latin America and the Caribbean appear to have a strategic marketing role beyond their stated philanthropic and public health purpose. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Marketing messages in food and alcohol magazine advertisements, variations across type and nutritional content of promoted products: a content analysis.

PubMed

Pitts, A; Burke, W; Adams, J

2014-09-01

'Marketing messages' are the themes used in advertisements to promote products. We explored the frequency of different marketing messages used in food and alcohol advertisements in UK women's magazines and associations with the type and nutritional content of products promoted. All advertisements for food and alcohol in 108 issues of popular UK monthly women's magazines were identified and text-based marketing messages classified using a bespoke coding framework. This information was linked to existing data on the type (i.e. food group) and nutritional content of advertised products. A total of 2 687 marketing messages were identified in 726 advertisements. Consumer messages such as 'taste' and 'quality' were most frequently found. Marketing messages used in advertisements for food and alcohol were notably different. The relationship between type and nutritional content of products advertised and marketing messages used was not intuitive from a consumer perspective: advertisements for foods 'high in fat and/or sugar' were less likely to use messages related to health, but more likely to use messages emphasizing reduced amounts of specific nutrients. Almost all advertisements included consumer-related marketing messages. Marketing messages used were not always congruent with the type or nutritional content of advertised products. These findings should be considered when developing policy. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Composition and Nutrient Information of Non-Alcoholic Beverages in the Spanish Market: An Update

PubMed Central

Serrano Iglesias, María; de Lourdes Samaniego Vaesken, María; Varela Moreiras, Gregorio

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to draw an updated map of the nutrition facts in the different categories of non-alcoholic beverages in the Spanish market based on the information declared on the labels of these products; we expect this first step to justify the need for the coordination and harmonization of food composition tables in Spain so that there will be an updated database available to produce realistic scientific nutrient intake estimates in accordance with the actual market scenario. Materials and Methods: The nutrition facts declared on the labels of non-alcoholic beverages by manufacturers in Spain were compiled and studied. Results: The database included 211 beverages classified in 7 groups with energy/carbohydrate content per 100 mL ranging from 0–55 kcal/0–13 g for soft drinks; 2–60 kcal/0–14.5 g for energy drinks; 24–31 kcal/5.8–7.5 g for sports drinks; 1–32 kcal/0–7.3 g for drinks containing mineral salts in their composition; 14–69 kcal/2.6–17 g for fruit juice, nectar, and grape musts; 43–78 kcal/6.1–14.4 g for vegetable drinks; and 33–88 kcal/3.6–14 g for dairy drinks. Conclusion: The current non-alcoholic beverage market is a dynamic, growing, and highly innovative one, allowing consumers to choose according to their preferences, needs, or level of physical activity at any moment of the day. PMID:27740599

A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents.

PubMed

Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

2013-01-24

Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. ACTRN12612000384853.

A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents

PubMed Central

Rowland, Bosco; Toumbourou, John Winston; Osborn, Amber; Smith, Rachel; Hall, Jessica Kate; Kremer, Peter; Kelly, Adrian B; Williams, Joanne; Leslie, Eva

2013-01-01

Introduction Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption. Method and analysis The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). Primary outcomes: (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members. Trial registration ACTRN12612000384853. PMID:23355674

Reinforcer pathologies: Predicting alcohol related problems in college drinking men and women.

PubMed

Lemley, Shea M; Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Darden, Alexandria C; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-10-01

Alcohol use in college is common, and problematic consequences of alcohol may affect college men and women differently. Approaches within behavioral economics have been used to improve our understanding of alcohol use in college students. The current study assessed relations between college students' delay discounting, demand for alcohol, and alcohol problems as measured by the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (YAACQ). In this study, 80 college drinkers completed a monetary choice questionnaire that assessed delay discounting of money, a novel beer choice questionnaire that evaluated delay discounting of beer, and an alcohol purchase task that measured demand for alcohol. Behavioral economic measures associated with the reinforcer pathologies model (i.e., demand and discounting) predicted alcohol consequences as measured by the YAACQ. For men, these significant predictor variables included money discounting, beer discounting, and intensity of alcohol demand, whereas for women money discounting and essential value were significant predictors. These findings highlight the utility of the reinforcer pathologies approach for the study of alcohol use and the importance of considering gender differences in examining college drinking. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Factors predicting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

PubMed

Tasneem, Abbas Ali; Luck, Nasir Hassan; Majid, Zain

2018-04-01

Introduction To determine the factors predicting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and advanced fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methodology All patients aged >18 years and having a fatty liver on abdominal ultrasound (US), presenting from January 2011 to January 2017, were included. A liver biopsy was performed on all the patients. Results Of 96 patients undergoing liver biopsy for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 76 (79.2%) were men. On liver US, diffuse fatty liver (DFL) was noted in 68 (70.8%) patients. Liver biopsy showed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in 78 (81.3%) patients. Factors associated with NASH were male gender, body mass index (BMI) > 27 kg/m 2 , DFL and raised alanine aminotransferase (ALT). A GULAB score (based on gender, US liver findings, lipid (fasting) levels, ALT level and BMI) of ≥5 predicted NASH with 82.05% sensitivity. Factors associated with advanced fibrosis in NAFLD were age >40 years, diabetes mellitus, AST/ALT ratio > 1 and raised GGT. Conclusion NASH is common in patients with male gender, high BMI, DFL on liver US, raised ALT and GULAB score ≥5.

Tackling alcohol misuse: purchasing patterns affected by minimum pricing for alcohol.

PubMed

Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis; McKenzie, Lynda; Farrar, Shelley

2012-01-01

Alcohol consumption is associated with a range of health and social harms that increase with the level of consumption. Policy makers are interested in effective and cost-effective interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and associated harms. Economic theory and research evidence demonstrate that increasing price is effective at the population level. Price interventions that target heavier consumers of alcohol may be more effective at reducing alcohol-related harms with less impact on moderate consumers. Minimum pricing per unit of alcohol has been proposed on this basis but concerns have been expressed that 'moderate drinkers of modest means' will be unfairly penalized. If those on low incomes are disproportionately affected by a policy that removes very cheap alcohol from the market, the policy could be regressive. The effect on households' budgets will depend on who currently purchases cheaper products and the extent to which the resulting changes in prices will impact on their demand for alcohol. This paper focuses on the first of these points. This paper aims to identify patterns of purchasing of cheap off-trade alcohol products, focusing on income and the level of all alcohol purchased. Three years (2006-08) of UK household survey data were used. The Expenditure and Food Survey provides comprehensive 2-week data on household expenditure. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between the purchase of cheap off-trade alcohol, household income levels and whether the household level of alcohol purchasing is categorized as moderate, hazardous or harmful, while controlling for other household and non-household characteristics. Predicted probabilities and quantities for cheap alcohol purchasing patterns were generated for all households. The descriptive statistics and regression analyses indicate that low-income households are not the predominant purchasers of any alcohol or even of cheap alcohol. Of those who do purchase off-trade alcohol

Impulsive suicide attempts predict post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patients.

PubMed

Wojnar, Marcin; Ilgen, Mark A; Jakubczyk, Andrzej; Wnorowska, Anna; Klimkiewicz, Anna; Brower, Kirk J

2008-10-01

The present study was designed to examine the influence of suicidality on relapse in alcohol-dependent patients. Specifically, a lifetime suicide attempt at baseline was used to predict relapse in the year after treatment. Also, the unique contribution of impulsive suicide attempts was examined. A total of 154 patients with alcohol dependence, consecutively admitted to four addiction treatment facilities in Warsaw, Poland participated in the study. Of the 154 eligible patients, 118 (76.6%) completed a standardized follow-up assessment at 12 months. Previous suicide attempts were common in adults treated for alcohol dependence with 43% patients in the present sample reporting an attempt at some point during their lifetime. Additionally, more than 62% of those with a lifetime suicide attempt reported making an impulsive attempt. Lifetime suicide attempts were not associated with post-treatment relapse (chi-square=2.37, d.f.=1, p=0.124). However, impulsive suicide attempts strongly predicted relapse (OR=2.81, 95% CI=1.13-6.95, p=0.026) and time to relapse (OR=2.10, 95% CI=1.18-3.74, p=0.012) even after adjusting for other measures of baseline psychopathology, depression, impulsivity, hopelessness and alcohol use severity. This study is the first to document the relationship between pre-treatment impulsive suicide attempts and higher likelihood of post-treatment relapse in alcohol-dependent patents. Clinicians should routinely conduct an assessment for previous suicide attempts in patients with alcohol use disorders, and when impulsive suicidality is reported, they should recognize the increased risk for relapse and formulate their patients' treatment plans accordingly with the goals of reducing both alcoholic relapse and suicide rates.

Toward Predicting Popularity of Social Marketing Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bei; Chen, Miao; Kwok, Linchi

Popularity of social marketing messages indicates the effectiveness of the corresponding marketing strategies. This research aims to discover the characteristics of social marketing messages that contribute to different level of popularity. Using messages posted by a sample of restaurants on Facebook as a case study, we measured the message popularity by the number of "likes" voted by fans, and examined the relationship between the message popularity and two properties of the messages: (1) content, and (2) media type. Combining a number of text mining and statistics methods, we have discovered some interesting patterns correlated to "more popular" and "less popular" social marketing messages. This work lays foundation for building computational models to predict the popularity of social marketing messages in the future.

If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

PubMed Central

Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

2010-01-01

The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students’ interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior. PMID:16889315

If you feed them, will they come? The use of social marketing to increase interest in attending a college alcohol program.

PubMed

Palmer, Rebekka S; Kilmer, Jason R; Larimer, Mary E

2006-01-01

The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires included measures assessing demographic information, alcohol use and negative consequences, and interest in attending an alcohol program in response to exposure to 1 of 12 systematically varied advertisements. The authors found that approximately 20% of participants across all ad types indicated some level of interest in attending the alcohol program. Students who use alcohol reported more interest in attending when an informational message was used. Of the participants offered food, 41.9% indicated the food offered in the advertisement impacted their interest in attending. Results suggest market segmentation plays a role in developing effective advertisements to recruit different groups of students based on their reported drinking behavior.

Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

2010-01-01

Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

When are they old enough to drink? Outcomes of an Australian social marketing intervention targeting alcohol initiation.

PubMed

Jones, Sandra C; Andrews, Kelly; Francis, Kate L; Akram, Muhammad

2018-04-01

This paper reports on the evaluation of an Australian whole-of-community social marketing intervention targeting social norms, which aimed to reduce inflated perceptions of the prevalence of underage drinking and increase the age at which alcohol initiation is considered acceptable. A community-wide intervention was delivered in a single community over a period of 2 years, targeting adolescents, parents and community members. Pre-and post-intervention computer-assisted telephone interview surveys were conducted in the intervention and a matched comparison (control) community. A total of 417 respondents completed both surveys (215 in the intervention community and 202 in the control community). The intervention community saw an increase of 6 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable for young people to have a sip/taste of alcohol and 5 months in the average age at which it is perceived to be acceptable to have weak/watered down alcohol. Furthermore, there was a reduction in the perception of the prevalence of alcohol consumption by young people to a level consistent with actual underage drinking rates. In comparison, the control community saw no change in any of these variables. This study provides preliminary evidence that a whole-of-community social marketing intervention can change perceptions of the prevalence, and acceptability, of underage drinking. Given the central role of social norms in decisions regarding alcohol consumption, these changes have the potential to reduce parental supply and thus underage drinking. © 2018 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Joe Camel in a bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff brand, and the transformation of the youth alcohol market.

PubMed

Mosher, James F

2012-01-01

I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health.

Learning Political Science with Prediction Markets: An Experimental Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Cali Mortenson; Sami, Rahul

2012-01-01

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class…

Trait Mindfulness Predicts Attentional and Autonomic Regulation of Alcohol Cue-Reactivity

PubMed Central

Garland, Eric L.

2013-01-01

Background The trait of mindfulness varies among meditation-naïve individuals and is associated with attentional and autonomic regulation, two neurocognitive functions that become impaired in addiction. It was hypothesized that alcohol dependent inpatients with comparatively high levels of trait mindfulness would exhibit significant autonomic recovery from stress-primed alcohol cues mediated by greater attentional disengagement from such cues. Methods 58 alcohol dependent inpatients participated in affect-modulated psychophysiological cue-reactivity protocol and a spatial cueing task designed to assess alcohol attentional bias (AB). Associations between trait mindfulness, alcohol AB, and an index of autonomic activity, high-frequency heart rate variability (HFHRV), were examined via multivariate path analysis. Results Higher trait mindfulness was significantly associated with less difficulty resisting the urge to drink and greater HFHRV recovery from stress-primed alcohol cues. After statistically controlling for the correlation of mindfulness and perceived difficulty resisting drinking urges, the association between mindfulness and HFHRV recovery was partially mediated by attentional disengagement from alcohol cues (model R2 = .30). Discussion Alcohol dependent inpatients higher in mindfulness are better able to disengage attention from alcohol cues, which in turn predicts the degree of HFHRV recovery from such cues. Trait mindfulness may index cognitive control over appetitive responses reflected in superior attentional and autonomic regulation of stress-primed alcohol cue-reactivity. PMID:23976814

Cigarette Smoking Predicts Differential Benefit from Naltrexone for Alcohol Dependence

PubMed Central

Fucito, Lisa M.; Park, Aesoon; Gulliver, Suzy Bird; Mattson, Margaret E.; Gueorguieva, Ralitza V.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.

2012-01-01

Background Identifying factors that modify responsiveness to pharmacotherapies for alcohol dependence is important for treatment planning. Cigarette smoking predicts more severe alcohol dependence and poorer treatment response in general. Nevertheless, there is limited research on cigarette smoking as a potential predictor of differential response to pharmacological treatment of alcoholism. Methods We examined the association between cigarette smoking and drinking outcomes in the COMBINE study, a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled 16-week trial comparing combinations of medications (i.e., acamprosate and naltrexone) and behavioral interventions (i.e., medical management (MM), combined behavioral therapy (CBI)) in 1383 alcohol dependent individuals. Results Smokers (i.e., more than half the sample) significantly differed from nonsmokers on several demographic and drinking-related variables at baseline and generally had poorer treatment outcomes than nonsmokers. However, smokers who received naltrexone had better drinking outcomes than smokers who received placebo, whereas alcohol use among nonsmokers did not vary by naltrexone assignment. This pattern of findings occurred independent of whether patients received CBI or MM and remained after controlling for alcoholism typology and baseline demographic differences. Approximately 9% of smokers quit smoking and an additional 10% reduced their cigarette intake during treatment. Reductions in smoking did not vary by treatment assignment. Conclusions These results suggest that naltrexone may be particularly beneficial for improving alcohol use outcomes in alcohol dependent smokers. Trial Registration The COMBINE Study, NCT000626, http://www.cscc.unc.edu/combine/. PMID:22541040

Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

PubMed

Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

2017-03-01

Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps < .01). Non-procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

PubMed Central

Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

2017-01-01

Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps < .01). Non-procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

[Prediction of histological liver damage in asymptomatic alcoholic patients by means of clinical and laboratory data].

PubMed

Iturriaga, H; Hirsch, S; Bunout, D; Díaz, M; Kelly, M; Silva, G; de la Maza, M P; Petermann, M; Ugarte, G

1993-04-01

Looking for a noninvasive method to predict liver histologic alterations in alcoholic patients without clinical signs of liver failure, we studied 187 chronic alcoholics recently abstinent, divided in 2 series. In the model series (n = 94) several clinical variables and results of common laboratory tests were confronted to the findings of liver biopsies. These were classified in 3 groups: 1. Normal liver; 2. Moderate alterations; 3. Marked alterations, including alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Multivariate methods used were logistic regression analysis and a classification and regression tree (CART). Both methods entered gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), aspartate-aminotransferase (AST), weight and age as significant and independent variables. Univariate analysis with GGT and AST at different cutoffs were also performed. To predict the presence of any kind of damage (Groups 2 and 3), CART and AST > 30 IU showed the higher sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction, both in the model and validation series. For prediction of marked liver damage, a score based on logistic regression and GGT > 110 IU had the higher efficiencies. It is concluded that GGT and AST are good markers of alcoholic liver damage and that, using sample cutoffs, histologic diagnosis can be correctly predicted in 80% of recently abstinent asymptomatic alcoholics.

Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2004-06-01

We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (October 2002-October 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. Based on an analysis including data up to 2003/10/28, we have predicted that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004). Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding.

Drinking Motives in the Prospective Prediction of Unique Alcohol-Related Consequences in College Students

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Wardell, Jeffrey D.; Read, Jennifer P.

2014-01-01

Objective: Although college students experience a diverse range of alcohol consequences, most studies focus on global, rather than distinct, consequence types. One predictor of unique consequences—drinking motives—has been studied only cross-sectionally. We aimed to examine the prediction of unique alcohol consequence domains (social/interpersonal, academic/occupational, risky behavior, impaired control, poor self-care, diminished self-perception, blackout drinking, and physiological dependence) by coping and enhancement motives over the course of one year. We hypothesized that coping motives would directly predict and that enhancement motives would indirectly (through alcohol use) predict unique consequences. Method: Web surveys were administered to a sample of college students (n = 552, 62% female) at the beginning of the fall semester for 2 consecutive academic years. Structural equation modeling was used to test direct and indirect paths from motives to consequences. Results: The data supported hypothesized direct, prospective paths from coping motives to several alcohol consequences (impaired control, diminished self-perception, poor self-care, risky behaviors, academic/occupational, and physiological dependence). These associations were not mediated by alcohol consumption. Enhancement motives were indirectly associated with all eight consequence domains by way of increased alcohol use at follow-up. Models were invariant across gender, year in school, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress. Conclusions: Findings suggest that whether motives act as a final common pathway to problem drinking may depend on which motives and which drinking outcomes are examined. As coping motives demonstrate a direct link to unique alcohol problem types over time, individuals endorsing these motives may need to be prioritized for intervention. PMID:24411801

Joe Camel in a Bottle: Diageo, the Smirnoff Brand, and the Transformation of the Youth Alcohol Market

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

I have documented the shift in youth alcoholic beverage preference from beer to distilled spirits between 2001 and 2009. I have assessed the role of distilled spirits industry marketing strategies to promote this shift using the Smirnoff brand marketing campaign as a case example. I conclude with a discussion of the similarities in corporate tactics across consumer products with adverse public health impacts, the importance of studying corporate marketing and public relations practices, and the implications of those practices for public health. PMID:22095339

Predicting functional outcomes among college drinkers: reliability and predictive validity of the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire.

PubMed

Read, Jennifer P; Merrill, Jennifer E; Kahler, Christopher W; Strong, David R

2007-11-01

Heavy drinking and associated consequences are widespread among U.S. college students. Recently, Read et al. (Read, J. P., Kahler, C. W., Strong, D., & Colder, C. R. (2006). Development and preliminary validation of the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 67, 169-178) developed the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (YAACQ) to assess the broad range of consequences that may result from heavy drinking in the college milieu. In the present study, we sought to add to the psychometric validation of this measure by employing a prospective design to examine the test-retest reliability, concurrent validity, and predictive validity of the YAACQ. We also sought to examine the utility of the YAACQ administered early in the semester in the prediction of functional outcomes later in the semester, including the persistence of heavy drinking, and academic functioning. Ninety-two college students (48 females) completed a self-report assessment battery during the first weeks of the Fall semester, and approximately one week later. Additionally, 64 subjects (37 females) participated at an optional third time point at the end of the semester. Overall, the YAACQ demonstrated strong internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and concurrent and predictive validity. YAACQ scores also were predictive of both drinking frequency, and "binge" drinking frequency. YAACQ total scores at baseline were an early indicator of academic performance later in the semester, with greater number of total consequences experienced being negatively associated with end-of-semester grade point average. Specific YAACQ subscale scores (Impaired Control, Dependence Symptoms, Blackout Drinking) showed unique prediction of persistent drinking and academic outcomes.

Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations.

PubMed

Munafo, Marcus R; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

2015-10-01

The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

PubMed

Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Validity of Integrity Tests for Predicting Drug and Alcohol Abuse

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-31

Wiinkler and Sheridan (1989) found that employees who entered employee assistance programs for treating drug addiction were more likely be absent...August 31, 1993 Final 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS Validity of Integrity Tests for Predicting Drug and Alcohol Abuse C No. N00014-92-J...words) This research used psychometric meta-analysis (Hunter & Schmidt, 1990b) to examine the validity of integrity tests for predicting drug and

Polygenic scores predict alcohol problems in an independent sample and show moderation by the environment.

PubMed

Salvatore, Jessica E; Aliev, Fazil; Edwards, Alexis C; Evans, David M; Macleod, John; Hickman, Matthew; Lewis, Glyn; Kendler, Kenneth S; Loukola, Anu; Korhonen, Tellervo; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kaprio, Jaakko; Dick, Danielle M

2014-04-10

Alcohol problems represent a classic example of a complex behavioral outcome that is likely influenced by many genes of small effect. A polygenic approach, which examines aggregate measured genetic effects, can have predictive power in cases where individual genes or genetic variants do not. In the current study, we first tested whether polygenic risk for alcohol problems-derived from genome-wide association estimates of an alcohol problems factor score from the age 18 assessment of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4304 individuals of European descent; 57% female)-predicted alcohol problems earlier in development (age 14) in an independent sample (FinnTwin12; n = 1162; 53% female). We then tested whether environmental factors (parental knowledge and peer deviance) moderated polygenic risk to predict alcohol problems in the FinnTwin12 sample. We found evidence for both polygenic association and for additive polygene-environment interaction. Higher polygenic scores predicted a greater number of alcohol problems (range of Pearson partial correlations 0.07-0.08, all p-values ≤ 0.01). Moreover, genetic influences were significantly more pronounced under conditions of low parental knowledge or high peer deviance (unstandardized regression coefficients (b), p-values (p), and percent of variance (R2) accounted for by interaction terms: b = 1.54, p = 0.02, R2 = 0.33%; b = 0.94, p = 0.04, R2 = 0.30%, respectively). Supplementary set-based analyses indicated that the individual top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the polygenic scores were not individually enriched for gene-environment interaction. Although the magnitude of the observed effects are small, this study illustrates the usefulness of polygenic approaches for understanding the pathways by which measured genetic predispositions come together with environmental factors to predict complex behavioral outcomes.

Patient and practitioner characteristics predict brief alcohol intervention in primary care.

PubMed

Kaner, E F; Heather, N; Brodie, J; Lock, C A; McAvoy, B R

2001-10-01

The effectiveness of an evidence-based health care intervention depends on it being delivered consistently to appropriate patients. Brief alcohol intervention is known to be effective at reducing excessive drinking and its concomitant health and social problems. However, a recent implementation trial reported partial delivery of brief alcohol intervention by general practitioners (GPs) which is likely to have reduced its impact. To investigate patient-practitioner characteristics influencing brief alcohol intervention in primary care. Cross-sectional analysis of 12,814 completed Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaires. Eighty-four GPs who had implemented a brief alcohol intervention programme in a previous trial based in the Northeast of England. GPs were requested to screen all adults (aged over 16 years) presenting to their surgery and follow a structured protocol to give a brief intervention (five minutes of advice plus an information booklet) to all 'risk' drinkers. Anonymized carbon copies of the screening questionnaire were collected from all practices after a three-month implementation period. Although AUDIT identified 4080 'risk' drinkers, only 2043 (50%) received brief intervention. Risk drinkers that were most likely to receive brief intervention were males (58%), unemployed (61%), and technically-trained patients (55%). Risk drinkers that were least likely to receive brief intervention were females (44%), students (38%), and university educated patients (46%). Logistic regression modelling showed that patients' risk status was the most influential predictor of brief intervention. Also, GPs' experience of relevant training and longer average practice consultations predicted brief intervention. However, personal characteristics relating to patients and GPs also predicted brief intervention in routine practice. Interpersonal factors relating to patients and practitioners contributed to the selective provision of brief

Effects of alcohol advertising exposure on drinking among youth.

PubMed

Snyder, Leslie B; Milici, Frances Fleming; Slater, Michael; Sun, Helen; Strizhakova, Yuliya

2006-01-01

To test whether alcohol advertising expenditures and the degree of exposure to alcohol advertisements affect alcohol consumption by youth. Longitudinal panel using telephone surveys. Households in 24 US media markets, April 1999 to February 2001. Individuals aged 15 to 26 years were randomly sampled within households and households within media markets. Markets were systematically selected from the top 75 media markets, representing 79% of the US population. The baseline refusal rate was 24%. Sample sizes per wave were 1872, 1173, 787, and 588. Data on alcohol advertising expenditures on television, radio, billboards, and newspapers were collected. Market alcohol advertising expenditures per capita and self-reported alcohol advertising exposure in the prior month. Self-reported number of alcoholic drinks consumed in the prior month. Youth who saw more alcohol advertisements on average drank more (each additional advertisement seen increased the number of drinks consumed by 1% [event rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.02]). Youth in markets with greater alcohol advertising expenditures drank more (each additional dollar spent per capita raised the number of drinks consumed by 3% [event rate ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.05]). Examining only youth younger than the legal drinking age of 21 years, alcohol advertisement exposure and expenditures still related to drinking. Youth in markets with more alcohol advertisements showed increases in drinking levels into their late 20s, but drinking plateaued in the early 20s for youth in markets with fewer advertisements. Control variables included age, gender, ethnicity, high school or college enrollment, and alcohol sales. Alcohol advertising contributes to increased drinking among youth.

The global alcohol industry: an overview.

PubMed

Jernigan, David H

2009-02-01

To describe the globalized sector of the alcoholic beverage industry, including its size, principal actors and activities. Market research firms and business journalism are the primary sources for information about the global alcohol industry, and are used to profile the size and membership of the three main industry sectors of beer, distilled spirits and wine. Branded alcoholic beverages are approximately 38% of recorded alcohol consumption world-wide. Producers of these beverages tend to be large multi-national corporations reliant on marketing for their survival. Marketing activities include traditional advertising as well as numerous other activities, such as new product development, product placement and the creation and promotion of social responsibility programs, messages and organizations. The global alcohol industry is highly concentrated and innovative. There is relatively little public health research evaluating the impact of its many marketing activities.

Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

2015-12-01

Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowgill, Bo; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

Since 2005, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are not typical of Google’s workforce, and that market participation and success is skewed towards Google’s engineering and quantitatively oriented employees.

Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models

PubMed Central

Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

2016-01-01

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance. PMID:26926235

The evolution of U.S. temperance movements since repeal: a comparison of two campaigns to control alcoholic beverage marketing, 1950s and 1980s.

PubMed

Pennock, Penny

2005-01-01

This paper compares the politics of a failed religious movement to ban alcohol advertising in the 1950s with the politics of a more secular, and partially successful, movement to regulate alcohol marketing in the 1970s and 1980s. Although the contexts of the two marketing control movements were quite different, the continuities were equally striking. Both employed arguments about youth, social order, and the power of mass media.

International codes and agreements to restrict the promotion of harmful products can hold lessons for the control of alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Landon, Jane; Lobstein, Tim; Godfrey, Fiona; Johns, Paula; Brookes, Chris; Jernigan, David

2017-01-01

Background and aims The 2011 UN Summit on Non-Communicable Disease failed to call for global action on alcohol marketing despite calls in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-20 to restrict or ban alcohol advertising. In this paper we ask what it might take to match the global approach to tobacco enshrined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and suggest that public health advocates can learn from the development of the FCTC and the Code of Marketing on infant formula milks and the recent recommendations on restricting food marketing to children. Methods Narrative review of qualitative accounts of the processes that created and monitor existing codes and treaties to restrict the marketing of consumer products, specifically breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco. Findings The development of treaties and codes for market restrictions include: (i) evidence of a public health crisis; (ii) the cost of inaction; (iii) civil society advocacy; (iv) the building of capacity; (v) the management of conflicting interests in policy development; and (vi) the need to consider monitoring and accountability to ensure compliance. Conclusion International public health treaties and codes provide an umbrella under which national governments can strengthen their own legislation, assisted by technical support from international agencies and non-governmental organizations. Three examples of international agreements, those for breast milk substitutes, unhealthy foods and tobacco, can provide lessons for the public health community to make progress on alcohol controls. Lessons include stronger alliances of advocates and health professionals and better tools and capacity to monitor and report current marketing practices and trends. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use from Preferential Music Consumption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oberle, Crystal D.; Garcia, Javier A.

2015-01-01

This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that…

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

2009-01-01

Background The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. Methods studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. Results seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. Conclusion data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley A; Foxcroft, David R

2009-02-06

The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies. studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed. seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies. data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and

Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina

2018-02-21

To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Factors Predictive Of Alcohol Consumption Among Elderly People In A Rural Community: A Case Study In Phayao Province Thailand.

PubMed

Hongthong, Donnapa; Somrongthong, Ratana; Wongchaiya, Pimpimon; Kumar, Ramesh

2016-01-01

Alcohol consumption is recognized as a public health issue. Study objectives were to identify factors predictive of alcohol consumption among elderly people in Phayao province Thailand, where there was high prevalence of alcohol consumption. This was a cross-sectional study. Four hundred elderly people participated in a survey. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the factors predictive of alcohol consumption among the study subjects. One thirds of elderly (31.7%) had consumed alcohol in their lifetime, and (15.7%) of them were current drinkers. Following univariate analysis, seven factors included gender, working, sickness, smoking, quality of life (QOL), daily activities and economic recession - were identified as being significantly associated with drinking (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed four factors to be predictive of alcohol among elderly people: gender (OR=6.02, 95% CI=3.58-10.13), smoking (OR=4.34, 95% CI=2.57-7.34), economic recession (OR=2.79, 95%, CI=1.66-4.71), and QOL (OR=1.86, 95%, CI=1.09-3.16). Gender (male) and smoking were strongly predictive factors of elderly alcohol consumption. Hence, an effort to reduce alcohol consumption should be placed on male elderly and those who smoke.

Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations

PubMed Central

Munafo, Marcus R.; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Altmejd, Adam; Heikensten, Emma; Almenberg, Johan; Bird, Alexander; Chen, Yiling; Wilson, Brad; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna

2015-01-01

The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, and enable individuals to trade ‘bets’ on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014. PMID:26587243

Can We Envision a Bettor's Guide to Climate Prediction Markets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trexler, M.

2017-12-01

It's one thing to set up a climate prediction market, it's another to find enough informed traders to make the market work. Climate bets could range widely, from purely scientific or atmospheric metrics, to bets that involve the interplay of science, policy, economic, and behavioral outcomes. For a topic as complex and politicized as climate change, a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions could substantially expand and diversify the pool of individuals trading in the market, increasing both its liquidity and decision-support value. The Climate Web is an on-line and publically accessible Beta version of such a Bettor's Guide, implementing the knowledge management adage: "if only we knew what we know." The Climate Web not only curates the key literature, news coverage, and websites relating to more than 100 climate topics, from extreme event exceedance curves to climate economics to climate risk scenarios, it extracts and links together thousands of ideas and graphics across all of those topics. The Climate Web integrates the many disciplinary silos that characterize today's often dysfunctional climate policy conversations, allowing rapid cross-silo exploration and understanding. As a Bettor's Guide it would allow prediction market traders to better research and understand their potential bets, and to quickly survey key thinking and uncertainties relating to those bets. The availability of such a Bettor's Guide to Climate Predictions should make traders willing to place more bets than they otherwise would, and should facilitate higher quality betting. The presentation will introduce the knowledge management dimensions and challenges of climate prediction markets, and introduce the Climate Web as one solution to those challenges.

Predicting Drinking Behavior and Alcohol-Related Problems Among Fraternity and Sorority Members: Examining the Role of Descriptive and Injunctive Norms

PubMed Central

Larimer, Mary E.; Turner, Aaron P.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Geisner, Irene Markman

2010-01-01

The authors examined the relation between Greek students’ perceptions of alcohol consumption in their pledge classes (descriptive norms) and acceptability of drinking (injunctive norms) and the ability of these normative influences to predict drinking behavior, alcohol-related negative consequences, and symptoms of alcohol dependence concurrently and prospectively over 1 year. Participants were 279 men and 303 women recruited from incoming pledge classes of 12 fraternities and 6 sororities, who completed measures of descriptive and injunctive norms, alcohol use, and consequences. Results revealed that descriptive norms significantly predicted concurrent drinking. After controlling for baseline drinking, injunctive norms significantly predicted drinking 1 year later and predicted alcohol-related consequences and dependency symptoms at baseline and follow-up. The potential to incorporate injunctive norms into preventive interventions is discussed. PMID:15482075

The Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS):Predictive invariance of Demographic Characteristics on Attitudes towards Alcohol across Hispanic National Groups#

PubMed Central

Mills, Britain A.; Caetano, Raul; Bernstein, Ira H.

2011-01-01

This study compares the demographic predictors of items assessing attitudes towards drinking across Hispanic national groups. Data were from the 2006 Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS), which used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals randomly selected from the household population in Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. Predictive invariance of demographic predictors of alcohol attitudes over four Hispanic national groups (Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexican, and South/Central Americans) was examined using multiple-group seemingly unrelated probit regression. The analyses examined whether the influence of various demographic predictors varied across the Hispanic national groups in their regression coefficients, item intercepts, and error correlations. The hypothesis of predictive invariance was supported. Hispanic groups did not differ in how demographic predictors related to individual attitudinal items (regression slopes were invariant). In addition, the groups did not differ in attitudinal endorsement rates once demographic covariates were taken into account (item intercepts were invariant). Although Hispanic groups have different attitudes about alcohol, the influence of multiple demographic characteristics on alcohol attitudes operates similarly across Hispanic groups. Future models of drinking behavior in adult Hispanics need not posit moderating effects of group on the relation between these background characteristics and attitudes. PMID:25379120

Marketing and alcohol-related traffic fatalities: impact of alcohol advertising targeting minors.

PubMed

Smith, Ryan C; Geller, E Scott

2009-10-01

Alcohol-related youth traffic fatalities continue as a major public-health concern. While state and federal laws can be useful in tackling this problem, the efficacy of many laws has not been empirically demonstrated. We examined the impact of state laws prohibiting alcohol advertising to target minors. Using statistics obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), youth alcohol-related, single-vehicle, driver traffic fatalities were compared by state as a function of whether the state has a law prohibiting alcohol advertising that targets minors. Overall, states possessing this law experienced 32.9% fewer of the above specified traffic fatalities. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that not only are youth drinking rates affected by alcohol advertisements targeting youth, but also drink-driving behaviors. Indeed, we estimate that if this type of legislation were adopted in the 26 states that do not prohibit targeting of minors with alcohol advertising, then 400 youth lives could be saved annually.

Prediction of alcohol and gambling problems in young adults by using a measure of decision making.

PubMed

Harvanko, Arit M; Schreiber, Liana R N; Grant, Jon E

2013-01-01

Individuals who regularly gamble, regularly consume alcohol, or meet criteria for an alcohol-use disorder or pathological gambling may make riskier decisions on cognitive tasks. What remains unclear in the literature is whether these decision-making deficits precede or result from these addictive behaviors. This study aimed to determine whether risky decision making on a cognitive task is predictive of increasing gambling behaviors and alcohol use. Fifty-eight young adults (aged 18-29 years) free from Axis I disorders and reporting no symptoms of at-risk gambling behavior or alcohol consumption, who were participating in a longitudinal study of impulsivity, were grouped as either high-risk decision makers (n = 29) or low-risk decision makers (n = 29) by using the Cambridge Gamble Task. Subjects were assessed at 1-year follow-up to examine gambling frequency, alcohol consumption, at-risk alcohol-use criteria, alcohol-use disorder criteria, at-risk gambling criteria, and pathological gambling criteria. High-risk decision makers were found to be more likely to meet at-risk criteria for alcohol use after 1 year. Decision-making group membership was not significantly correlated with frequency of gambling or development of pathological gambling or alcohol-use disorder over 1 year. A variable measuring risky decision making on the Cambridge Gambling Task may be able to predict who is more likely to increase alcohol use per session later in life.

Exploring College Students' Use of General and Alcohol-Related Social Media and Their Associations with Alcohol-Related Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Eric W.; Pinkleton, Bruce E.; Weintraub Austin, Erica; Reyes-Velázquez, Wanda

2014-01-01

Objective: Alcohol marketers have increasingly moved their advertising efforts into digital and social media venues. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate associations between students' use of social media, their exposure to alcohol marketing messages through social media, and their alcohol-related beliefs and behaviors.…

Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Tyng; Cooper, Hannah L F; Windle, Michael; Haardörfer, Regine; Crawford, Natalie D; Chen, Wei J; Chen, Chuan-Yu

2016-12-01

Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old) and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old) from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source) compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT) and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the relationship between district-level violent

Alcohol industry self-regulation: who is it really protecting?

PubMed

Noel, Jonathan; Lazzarini, Zita; Robaina, Katherine; Vendrame, Alan

2017-01-01

Self-regulation has been promoted by the alcohol industry as a sufficient means of regulating alcohol marketing activities. However, evidence suggests that the guidelines of self-regulated alcohol marketing codes are violated routinely, resulting in excessive alcohol marketing exposure to youth and the use of content that is potentially harmful to youth and other vulnerable populations. If the alcohol industry does not adhere to its own regulations the purpose and design of these codes should be questioned. Indeed, implementation of alcohol marketing self-regulation in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States was likely to delay statutory regulation rather than to promote public health. Moreover, current self-regulation codes suffer from vague language that may allow the industry to circumvent the guidelines, loopholes that may obstruct the implementation of the codes, lax exposure guidelines that can allow excessive youth exposure, even if properly followed, and a standard of review that may be inappropriate for protecting vulnerable populations. Greater public health benefits may be realized if legislative restrictions were applied to alcohol marketing, and strict statutory alcohol marketing regulations have been implemented and defended successfully in the European Union, with European courts declaring that restrictions on alcohol marketing are proportional to the benefits to public health. In contrast, attempts to restrict alcohol marketing activities in the United States have occurred through private litigation and have been unsuccessful. None the less, repeated violations of industry codes may provide legislators with sufficient justification to pass new legislation and for such legislation to withstand constitutional review in the United States and elsewhere. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant.

PubMed

Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P

2013-12-01

Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

The economics of alcohol abuse and alcohol-control policies.

PubMed

Cook, Philip J; Moore, Michael J

2002-01-01

Economic research has contributed to the evaluation of alcohol policy through empirical analysis of the effects of alcohol-control measures on alcohol consumption and its consequences. It has also provided an accounting framework for defining and comparing costs and benefits of alcohol consumption and related policy interventions, including excise taxes. The most important finding from the economics literature is that consumers tend to drink less ethanol, and have fewer alcohol-related problems, when alcoholic beverage prices are increased or alcohol availability is restricted. That set of findings is relevant for policy purposes because alcohol abuse imposes large "external" costs on others. Important challenges remain, including developing a better understanding of the effects of drinking on labor-market productivity.

Friends' Alcohol-Related Social Networking Site Activity Predicts Escalations in Adolescent Drinking: Mediation by Peer Norms.

PubMed

Nesi, Jacqueline; Rothenberg, W Andrew; Hussong, Andrea M; Jackson, Kristina M

2017-06-01

Adolescents' increased use of social networking sites (SNS) coincides with a developmental period of heightened risk for alcohol use initiation. However, little is known regarding associations between adolescents' SNS use and drinking initiation nor the mechanisms of this association. This study examined longitudinal associations among adolescents' exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS postings, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms, and initiation of drinking behaviors. Participants were 658 high-school students who reported on posting of alcohol-related SNS content by self and friends, alcohol-related injunctive norms, and other developmental risk factors for alcohol use at two time points, 1 year apart. Participants also reported on initiation of three drinking behaviors: consuming a full drink, becoming drunk, and heavy episodic drinking (three or more drinks per occasion). Probit regression analyses were used to predict initiation of drinking behaviors from exposure to alcohol-related SNS content. Path analyses examined mediation of this association by peer injunctive norms. Exposure to friends' alcohol-related SNS content predicted adolescents' initiation of drinking and heavy episodic drinking 1 year later, controlling for demographic and known developmental risk factors for alcohol use (i.e., parental monitoring and peer orientation). In addition, alcohol-favorable peer injunctive norms statistically mediated the relationship between alcohol-related SNS exposure and each drinking milestone. Results suggest that social media plays a unique role in contributing to peer influence processes surrounding alcohol use and highlight the need for future investigative and preventive efforts to account for adolescents' changing social environments. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abusive alcohol consumption among adolescents: a predictive model for maximizing early detection and responses.

PubMed

de Freitas Ferreira, M; de Moraes, C L; Braga, J U; Reichenheim, M E; da Veiga, G V

2018-06-01

To present a predictive model of alcohol abuse among adolescents based on prevalence projections in various population subgroups. Cross-sectional study. The sample consisted of 785 adolescents enrolled in the second year of high school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Alcohol consumption was assessed using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Socio-economic, demographic, family, individuals, and school-related variables were examined as potential predictors. The logit model was used to estimate the prevalence projections. Model fitting was examined in relation to the observed data set, and in a subset, that was generated from 200 subsamples of individuals via a bootstrap process using general fit estimators, discrimination, and calibration measures. About 25.5% of the adolescents were classified as positive for alcohol abuse. Being male, being 17-19 years old, not living with mothers, presenting symptoms suggestive of binge eating, having used a strategy of weight reduction in the last 3 months, and, especially, being a victim of family violence were important predictors of abusive consumption of alcohol. While the model's prevalence projection in the absence of these features was 8%, it reaches 68% in the presence of all predictors. Knowledge of predictive characteristics of alcohol abuse is essential for screening, early detection of positive cases, and establishing interventions to reduce consumption among adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does adolescent alcohol and marijuana use predict suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among male juvenile offenders?

PubMed

Chassin, Laurie; Dmitrieva, Julia; Modecki, Kathryn; Steinberg, Laurence; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Piquero, Alex R; Knight, George P; Losoya, Sandra H

2010-03-01

Multiple theories suggest mechanisms by which the use of alcohol and drugs during adolescence could dampen growth in psychosocial maturity. However, scant empirical evidence exists to support this proposition. The current study tested whether alcohol and marijuana use predicted suppressed growth in psychosocial maturity among a sample of male serious juvenile offenders (n = 1,170) who were followed from ages 15 to 21 years. Alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predicted lower maturity 6 months later. Moreover, boys with the greatest increases in marijuana use showed the smallest increases in psychosocial maturity. Finally, heterogeneity in the form of age-related alcohol and marijuana trajectories was related to growth in maturity, such that only boys who decreased their alcohol and marijuana use significantly increased in psychosocial maturity. Taken together, these findings suggest that patterns of elevated alcohol and marijuana use in adolescence may suppress age-typical growth in psychosocial maturity from adolescence to young adulthood, but that effects are not necessarily permanent, because decreasing use is associated with increases in maturity.

Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

PubMed

Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

2017-12-15

The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

PubMed

Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

2017-04-01

Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

Interactions between self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies and cognitive functioning in the prediction of alcohol use and associated problems: a further examination.

PubMed

Littlefield, Andrew K; Vergés, Alvaro; McCarthy, Denis M; Sher, Kenneth J

2011-09-01

A recent debate regarding the theoretical distinction between explicit and implicit cognitive processes relevant to alcohol-related behaviors was strongly shaped by empirical findings from dual-process models (Moss & Albery, 2009; Wiers & Stacy, 2010; Moss & Albery, 2010). Specifically, as part of a broader discussion, Wiers & Stacy (2010) contended that alcohol-related behaviors are better predicted by self-reported alcohol expectancies for individuals with good executive control and verbal abilities relative to those without such abilities. The purpose of the current paper is to further test whether self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies are moderated by measures of cognitive functioning. Using multiple indices of alcohol use, alcohol-related consequences, self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies, and cognitive functioning, both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted in a prospective sample of 489 individuals at varying risk for alcohol use disorders. Results from a series of regression analyses testing interactions between self-reported alcohol expectancies and cognitive functioning showed minimal support for the hypothesized pattern discussed by Wiers and Stacy, 2010 regarding self-reported alcohol outcome expectancies. The overall rates of significance were consistent with Type I error rates and a substantial proportion of the significant interactions were inconsistent with previous findings. Thus, the conclusion that cognitive measures consistently moderate the relation between self-reported alcohol expectancies and alcohol use and outcomes should be tempered. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

2015-08-11

The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

Do community characteristics predict alcohol-related crime?

PubMed

Breen, Courtney; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Slade, Tim; Love, Stephanie; D'Este, Catherine; Mattick, Richard P

2011-01-01

Alcohol-related crime is a substantial community problem. There is evidence to suggest that certain geographic areas experience higher rates of alcohol-related crime and that both individual and community factors are associated with alcohol-related crime. There is limited research at the community level despite communities being the target of interventions designed to reduce alcohol-related harm. This study aims to determine whether there are differences in alcohol-related crime at the community level and examines whether certain community characteristics are associated with increased alcohol-related crime. Routinely collected police data from 20 rural communities in New South Wales, Australia were analysed. The ratio of alcohol to non-alcohol-related criminal incidents was used as a proxy for alcohol-related crime. Predictor variables were population-adjusted community characteristics, including demographic and resource variables. Regression analyses suggest that there are differences between communities in alcohol-related crime. Less socioeconomic disadvantage and more GPs and licensed premises (pubs and clubs) are associated with greater alcohol-related crime at the community level. Decreasing the socioeconomic well-being of a community is not appropriate; however, introducing additional taxes to increase the cost of alcohol may decrease consumption and therefore alcohol-related crime. Reducing or capping the number of licensed premises, specifically the number of pubs and clubs, may be an appropriate strategy to reduce alcohol-related crime in rural communities.

Alcohol promotions in Australian supermarket catalogues.

PubMed

Johnston, Robyn; Stafford, Julia; Pierce, Hannah; Daube, Mike

2017-07-01

In Australia, most alcohol is sold as packaged liquor from off-premises retailers, a market increasingly dominated by supermarket chains. Competition between retailers may encourage marketing approaches, for example, discounting, that evidence indicates contribute to alcohol-related harms. This research documented the nature and variety of promotional methods used by two major supermarket retailers to promote alcohol products in their supermarket catalogues. Weekly catalogues from the two largest Australian supermarket chains were reviewed for alcohol-related content over 12 months. Alcohol promotions were assessed for promotion type, product type, number of standard drinks, purchase price and price/standard drink. Each store catalogue included, on average, 13 alcohol promotions/week, with price-based promotions most common. Forty-five percent of promotions required the purchase of multiple alcohol items. Wine was the most frequently promoted product (44%), followed by beer (24%) and spirits (18%). Most (99%) wine cask (2-5 L container) promotions required multiple (two to three) casks to be purchased. The average number of standard drinks required to be purchased to participate in catalogue promotions was 31.7 (SD = 24.9; median = 23.1). The median price per standard drink was $1.49 (range $0.19-$9.81). Cask wines had the lowest cost per standard drink across all product types. Supermarket catalogues' emphasis on low prices/high volumes of alcohol reflects that retailers are taking advantage of limited restrictions on off-premise sales and promotion, which allow them to approach market competition in ways that may increase alcohol-related harms in consumers. Regulation of alcohol marketing should address retailer catalogue promotions. [Johnston R, Stafford J, Pierce H, Daube M. Alcohol promotions in Australian supermarket catalogues. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:456-463]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Quantifying alcohol consumption: Self-report, transdermal assessment, and prediction of dependence symptoms.

PubMed

Simons, Jeffrey S; Wills, Thomas A; Emery, Noah N; Marks, Russell M

2015-11-01

Research on alcohol use depends heavily on the validity of self-reported drinking. The present paper presents data from 647 days of self-monitoring with a transdermal alcohol sensor by 60 young adults. We utilized a biochemical measure, transdermal alcohol assessment with the WrisTAS, to examine the convergent validity of three approaches to collecting daily self-report drinking data: experience sampling, daily morning reports of the previous night, and 1-week timeline follow-back (TLFB) assessments. We tested associations between three pharmacokinetic indices (peak concentration, area under the curve (AUC), and time to reach peak concentration) derived from the transdermal alcohol signal and within- and between- person variation in alcohol dependence symptoms. The WrisTAS data corroborated 85.74% of self-reported drinking days based on the experience sampling data. The TLFB assessment and combined experience sampling and morning reports agreed on 87.27% of drinking days. Drinks per drinking day did not vary as a function of wearing or not wearing the sensor; this indicates that participants provided consistent reports of their drinking regardless of biochemical verification. In respect to self-reported alcohol dependence symptoms, the AUC of the WrisTAS alcohol signal was associated with dependence symptoms at both the within- and between- person level. Furthermore, alcohol dependence symptoms at baseline predicted drinking episodes characterized in biochemical data by both higher peak alcohol concentration and faster time to reach peak concentration. The results support the validity of self-report alcohol data, provide empirical data useful for optimal design of daily process sampling, and provide an initial demonstration of the use of transdermal alcohol assessment to characterize drinking dynamics associated with risk for alcohol dependence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying alcohol consumption: Self-report, transdermal assessment, and prediction of dependence symptoms☆

PubMed Central

Simons, Jeffrey S.; Wills, Thomas A.; Emery, Noah N.; Marks, Russell M.

2015-01-01

Research on alcohol use depends heavily on the validity of self-reported drinking. The present paper presents data from 647 days of self-monitoring with a transdermal alcohol sensor by 60 young adults. We utilized a bio chemical measure, transdermal alcohol assessment with the WrisTAS, to examine the convergent validity of three approaches to collecting daily self-report drinking data: experience sampling, daily morning reports of the previous night, and 1-week timeline follow-back (TLFB) assessments. We tested associations between three pharmacokinetic indices (peak concentration, area under the curve (AUC), and time to reach peak concentration) derived from the transdermal alcohol signal and within- and between-person variation in alcohol dependence symptoms. The WrisTAS data corroborated 85.74% of self-reported drinking days based on the experience sampling data. The TLFB assessment and combined experience sampling and morning reports agreed on 87.27% of drinking days. Drinks per drinking day did not vary as a function of wearing or not wearing the sensor; this indicates that participants provided consistent reports of their drinking regardless of biochemical verification. In respect to self-reported alcohol dependence symptoms, the AUC of the WrisTAS alcohol signal was associated with dependence symptoms at both the within- and between-person level. Furthermore, alcohol dependence symptoms at baseline predicted drinking episodes characterized in biochemical data by both higher peak alcohol concentration and faster time to reach peak concentration. The results support the validity of self-report alcohol data, provide empirical data useful for optimal design of daily process sampling, and provide an initial demon stration of the use of transdermal alcohol assessment to characterize drinking dynamics associated with risk for alcohol dependence. PMID:26160523

Cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary health care physicians in brief intervention techniques for hazardous alcohol use.

PubMed

Gomel, M K; Wutzke, S E; Hardcastle, D M; Lapsley, H; Reznik, R B

1998-07-01

The cost-effectiveness of strategies to market and train primary care physicians in brief intervention for hazardous alcohol consumption was examined. Physicians were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies designed to promote the "uptake" of a brief intervention package for hazardous and harmful alcohol consumption. The strategies were direct mail, tele-marketing, or academic detailing. One hundred and twenty-seven of those physicians who requested the package during the marketing phase (phase 1) and who also agreed to participate in the training and support phase of the project (phase 2) were matched into one of three training and support conditions: training and no support, training and minimal support, training and maximal support. An additional 34 physicians were randomly selected and assigned to a control condition. The ultimate aim of training and support was to maximise physician screening and counselling rates. Tele-marketing was found to be more cost-effective than academic detailing and direct mail in promoting the uptake of the package. For the training and support phase costs and effects increased with the level of support, hence the issue to be considered is whether the additional cost incurred in moving from one strategy to another is warranted given the increase in the level of outcome.

Predicting women's alcohol risk-taking while abroad.

PubMed

Smith, Gabie; Klein, Sarah

2010-05-01

Numerous studies have examined risk factors that are associated with heavy alcohol use; however, much of this research has not addressed factors that specifically relate to women's alcohol use. The current study has extended the previous literature on women's alcohol-use behavior by examining factors associated with risky drinking in young women traveling abroad (n = 55). Using a pretest-posttest design, we examined the influence of disinhibition sensation-seeking and endorsement of social enhancement alcohol expectancies in relation to participation in risky alcohol use while abroad for three weeks. Analyses confirmed that disinhibition sensation-seeking and social enhancement alcohol expectancies were associated with participation in risky alcohol-use behaviors while abroad (controlling for alcohol-use at the pretest). Analysis of qualitative data reinforced the importance of social facilitation in women's alcohol risk-taking. Participants' qualitative data also emphasized characteristics of situational disinhibition relating to travel as well as culturally-specific motivations for alcohol-use behaviors. Further research examining women's personal need for disinhibition and the role of situational disinhibition in motivating alcohol risk-taking is warranted. In addition, the current findings suggest that interventions focusing on the connections between alcohol use and enhancement of social relationships and the potential isolating effects of non-use are necessary.

Alcohol outlet densities and alcohol price: the British Columbia experiment in the partial privatization of alcohol sales off-premise.

PubMed

Treno, Andrew J; Ponicki, William R; Stockwell, Tim; Macdonald, Scott; Gruenewald, Paul J; Zhao, Jinhui; Martin, Gina; Greer, Alissa

2013-05-01

Alcohol beverage prices or taxes have been shown to be related to alcohol sales and use and related problems. What is not clear are the mechanisms underlying these relationships. This study examines the relationship between alcohol outlet density under conditions of the partial privatization of off-premise consumption in British Columbia (BC) occurring over the past decade. Two hypotheses are tested. First, reflecting basic supply-demand principles, greater geographic densities of alcohol outlets will be directly related to reductions in beverage prices in response to greater competition. Second, reflecting the effects of niche marketing and resulting market stratification, increased densities of private liquor stores will be especially related to reductions in beverage prices within this outlet category. Data were collected from: (i) a survey of BC private store prices and practices, (ii) alcohol outlet location information, and (iii) data on demographic characteristics. Multilevel models examine the relationships between prices at individual private liquor stores and the densities of government liquor stores, private liquor stores, bars, and restaurants, controlling for background demographics and geographic unit level effects. Spatial dependencies were also examined. Increased densities of private liquor stores were associated with lower mean prices of beer and all alcohol aggregated across brands at the store level. There appeared to be no outlet level effect on discounting patterns, however, with the mean price differences apparently reflecting differences in the quality of brands carried rather than unequal prices for any given brand. Increased densities of private off-sale alcohol outlets appear to result in lower prices charged at said establishments independently of other types of alcohol outlets suggesting that they represent an emerging marketing niche in the context of off-sale outlet privatization. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on

Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm

PubMed Central

Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

2017-01-01

Background Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. Aim To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Design and setting Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Method Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. Results From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The ‘predictAL-10’ risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the ‘predictAL-9’), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. Conclusion The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. PMID:28360074

The marketing of alcohol to college students: the role of low prices and special promotions.

PubMed

Kuo, Meichun; Wechsler, Henry; Greenberg, Patty; Lee, Hang

2003-10-01

Heavy episodic or binge drinking has been recognized as a major problem on American college campuses affecting the health, safety, and education of students. The present study examines the alcohol environment surrounding college campuses and assesses the impact on students' drinking. This environment includes alcohol promotions, price specials, and advertising at drinking establishments that serve beer for on-premise consumption as well as retail outlets that sell beer for off-premise consumption. The study used student self-report data from the 2001 College Alcohol Study (CAS) and direct observational assessments by trained observers who visited alcohol establishments in communities where the participating colleges were located. The analytic sample included more than 10,000 students as well as 830 on-premise and 1684 off-premise establishments at 118 colleges. Alcohol specials, promotions, and advertisements were prevalent in the alcohol outlets around college campuses. Almost three quarters of on-premise establishments offered specials on weekends, and almost one half of the on-premise establishments and more than 60% of off-premise establishments provided at least one type of beer promotion. The availability of large volumes of alcohol (24- and 30-can cases of beer, kegs, party balls), low sale prices, and frequent promotions and advertisements at both on- and off-premise establishments were associated with higher binge drinking rates on the college campuses. In addition, an overall measure of on- and off-premise establishments was positively associated with the total number of drinks consumed. The regulation of marketing practices such as sale prices, promotions, and advertisements may be important strategies to reduce binge drinking and its accompanying problems.

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P < 0.001), serum sodium level (OR, 0.939; P = 0.029), and neutrophil count (OR, 1.000; P = 0.021). For prediction of mortality at predefined time points (28-day and 90-day) in patients with ACLF, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic were significantly greater for the CLIF-C ACLFs than for Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-sodium scores. Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome play an important role in the development of alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Response Inhibition Impairments Predict Alcohol-Induced Sedation

PubMed Central

Shannon, Erin E.; Staniforth, Elizabeth R.; McNamara, Juliette; Bernosky-Smith, Kimberly A.; Liguori, Anthony

2011-01-01

Aims: The aim of this study was to probe the relationship between the subjective effects of alcohol and impulsive behavior in social drinkers. Methods: Fifty social drinkers performed a response-inhibition task before consuming alcohol. A 0.8-g/kg dose of alcohol was administered in a binge-like fashion (0.2 g/kg every 30 min) to the participants over a 2-h time period. Participants then completed questionnaires measuring stimulation, sedation and mood following consumption of alcohol. Linear regression analyses were performed by examining the relationship between performance on the response inhibition impulsivity task and subjective responses to alcohol (i.e. stimulation, sedation and arousal). Results: There was a significant positive relationship found between impulsive responding and self-reported sedation following alcohol consumption. Additionally, there was a significant negative relationship between behavioral impulsivity and self-reported stimulation and arousal following alcohol consumption. Conclusion: These results suggest that higher levels of impulsivity are associated with experiencing greater sedating than stimulating effects of alcohol. Individuals with high levels of impulsivity may be less sensitive to the stimulating effects of a specified dose of alcohol, which could lead to these individuals consuming more alcohol to experience the stimulating effects of alcohol. PMID:21127353

Segmenting and targeting American university students to promote responsible alcohol use: a case for applying social marketing principles.

PubMed

Deshpande, Sameer; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn

2011-10-01

The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by "values" and "expectancies" sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed.

Do labour market status transitions predict changes in psychological well-being?

PubMed

Flint, Ellen; Bartley, Mel; Shelton, Nicola; Sacker, Amanda

2013-09-01

The objective of this study was to establish the direction of causality in the relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being by investigating how transitions between secure employment, insecure employment, unemployment, permanent sickness and other economic inactivity predict changes in psychological well-being over a 16-year period. This study used data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2007). Psychological well-being was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Fixed effects models were utilised to investigate how transitions between labour market statuses predicted GHQ-12 score, adjusting for current labour market status and a range of covariates. After taking account of the contemporaneous effects of joblessness on psychological well-being, and the impact of a range of confounding factors, experiencing a transition from employment to joblessness was significantly predictive of poorer psychological well-being. Transitions into employment were not found to have equal and opposite effects: the positive effects of moving into work from unemployment were not as large as the negative effects of job loss. Transitions between secure and insecure employment did not independently predict changes in psychological well-being. A causal relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being is indicated.

Predicting Problematic Alcohol Use with the DSM-5 Alternative Model of Personality Pathology

PubMed Central

Creswell, Kasey G.; Bachrach, Rachel L.; Wright, Aidan G.C.; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

2015-01-01

There is high comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders, which appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. Very little is known about how the DSM-5 Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems, however, or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Further, two of the five higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these two specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. PMID:26389625

Alcohol-flavoured tobacco products.

PubMed

Jackler, Robert K; VanWinkle, Callie K; Bumanlag, Isabela M; Ramamurthi, Divya

2018-05-01

In 2009, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) banned characterising flavours in cigarettes (except for menthol) due to their appeal to teen starter smokers. In August 2016, the agency deemed all tobacco products to be under its authority and a more comprehensive flavour ban is under consideration. To determine the scope and scale of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products among cigars & cigarillos, hookahs and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Alcohol-flavoured tobacco products were identified by online search of tobacco purveyors' product lines and via Google search cross-referencing the various tobacco product types versus a list of alcoholic beverage flavours (eg, wine, beer, appletini, margarita). 48 types of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products marketed by 409 tobacco brands were identified. Alcohol flavours included mixed drinks (n=25), spirits (11), liqueurs (7) and wine/beer (5). Sweet and fruity tropical mixed drink flavours were marketed by the most brands: piña colada (96), mojito (66) and margarita (50). Wine flavours were common with 104 brands. Among the tobacco product categories, brands offering alcohol-flavoured e-cigarettes (280) were most numerous, but alcohol-flavoured products were also marketed by cigars & cigarillos (88) and hookah brands (41). Brands by major tobacco companies (eg, Philip Morris, Imperial Tobacco) were well represented among alcohol-flavoured cigars & cigarillos with five companies offering a total of 17 brands. The widespread availability of alcohol-flavoured tobacco products illustrates the need to regulate characterising flavours on all tobacco products. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use From Preferential Music Consumption.

PubMed

Oberle, Crystal D; Garcia, Javier A

2015-01-01

This study investigated whether use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana may be predicted from preferential consumption of particular music genres. Undergraduates (257 women and 78 men) completed a questionnaire assessing these variables. Partial correlation analyses, controlling for sensation-seeking tendencies and behaviors, revealed that listening to conventional music (pop, country, and religious genres) was negatively correlated with cigarette smoking (p=.001) and marijuana use (p<.001). Additionally, listening to energetic music (rap or hip-hop and soul or funk genres) was positively correlated with marijuana use (p=.004). The only significant predictor of alcohol use was country music, with which it was positively correlated (p=.04). This research suggests an especially harmful influence of energetic music on marijuana use. © The Author(s) 2015.

Prediction of stock market characteristics using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Shah, Trupti U.; Gandhi, Viraf R.

1999-03-01

International stocks trading, currency and derivative contracts play an increasingly important role for many investors. Neural network is playing a dominant role in predicting the trends in stock markets and in currency speculation. In most economic applications, the success rate using neural networks is limited to 70 - 80%. By means of the new approach of GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) neural network predictions can be improved further by 10 - 15%. It was observed in our study, that using GMDH for short, noisy or inaccurate data sample resulted in the best-simplified model. In the GMDH model accuracy of prediction is higher and the structure is simpler than that of the usual full physical model. As an example, prediction of the activity on the stock exchange in New York was considered. On the basis of observations in the period of Jan '95 to July '98, several variables of the stock market (S&P 500, Small Cap, Dow Jones, etc.) were predicted. A model portfolio using various stocks (Amgen, Merck, Office Depot, etc.) was built and its performance was evaluated based on neural network forecasting of the closing prices. Comparison of results was made with various neural network models such as Multilayer Perceptrons with Back Propagation, and the GMDH neural network. Variations of GMDH were studied and analysis of their performance is reported in the paper.

Predictive Utility of Brief Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) for human immunodeficiency virus antiretroviral medication nonadherence.

PubMed

Broyles, Lauren Matukaitis; Gordon, Adam J; Sereika, Susan M; Ryan, Christopher M; Erlen, Judith A

2011-10-01

Alcohol use negatively affects adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), thus human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) care providers need accurate, efficient assessments of alcohol use. Using existing data from an efficacy trial of 2 cognitive-behavioral ART adherence interventions, the authors sought to determine if results on 2 common alcohol screening tests (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test--Consumption [AUDIT-C] and its binge-related question [AUDIT-3]) predict ART nonadherence. Twenty-seven percent of the sample (n = 308) were positive on the AUDIT-C and 34% were positive on the AUDIT-3. In multivariate analyses, AUDIT-C-positive status predicted ART nonadherence after controlling for race, age, conscientiousness, and self-efficacy (P = .036). Although AUDIT-3-positive status was associated with ART nonadherence in unadjusted analyses, this relationship was not maintained in the final multivariate model. The AUDIT-C shows potential as an indirect screening tool for both at-risk drinking and ART nonadherence, underscoring the relationship between alcohol and chronic disease management.

Alcohol-Approach Inclinations and Drinking Identity as Predictors of Behavioral Economic Demand for Alcohol

PubMed Central

Ramirez, Jason J.; Dennhardt, Ashley A.; Baldwin, Scott A.; Murphy, James G.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

2016-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curve indices of alcohol consumption reflect decisions to consume alcohol at varying costs. Although these indices predict alcohol-related problems beyond established predictors, little is known about the determinants of elevated demand. Two cognitive constructs that may underlie alcohol demand are alcohol-approach inclinations and drinking identity. The aim of this study was to evaluate implicit and explicit measures of these constructs as predictors of alcohol demand curve indices. College student drinkers (N = 223, 59% female) completed implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations at three timepoints separated by three-month intervals, and completed the Alcohol Purchase Task to assess demand at Time 3. Given no change in our alcohol-approach inclinations and drinking identity measures over time, random intercept-only models were used to predict two demand indices: Amplitude, which represents maximum hypothetical alcohol consumption and expenditures, and Persistence, which represents sensitivity to increasing prices. When modeled separately, implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations positively predicted demand indices. When implicit and explicit measures were included in the same model, both measures of drinking identity predicted Amplitude, but only explicit drinking identity predicted Persistence. In contrast, explicit measures of alcohol-approach inclinations, but not implicit measures, predicted both demand indices. Therefore, there was more support for explicit, versus implicit, measures as unique predictors of alcohol demand. Overall, drinking identity and alcohol-approach inclinations both exhibit positive associations with alcohol demand and represent potentially modifiable cognitive constructs that may underlie elevated demand in college student drinkers. PMID:27379444

Six-Month Changes in Spirituality and Religiousness in Alcoholics Predict Drinking Outcomes at Nine Months*

PubMed Central

Robinson, Elizabeth A. R.; Krentzman, Amy R.; Webb, Jon R.; Brower, Kirk J.

2011-01-01

Objective: Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Method: Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Results: Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. Conclusions: SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self. PMID:21683048

A Case Study on Using Prediction Markets as a Rich Environment for Active Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buckley, Patrick; Garvey, John; McGrath, Fergal

2011-01-01

In this paper, prediction markets are presented as an innovative pedagogical tool which can be used to create a Rich Environment for Active Learning (REAL). Prediction markets are designed to make forecasts about specific future events by using a market mechanism to aggregate the information held by a large group of traders about that event into a…

Caffeinated alcohol beverages: a public health concern.

PubMed

Attwood, Angela S

2012-01-01

Consumption of alcohol mixed with caffeinated energy drinks is becoming popular, and the number of pre-mixed caffeinated alcohol products on the worldwide market is increasing. There is public health concern and even occasional legal restriction relating to these drinks, due to associations with increased intoxication and harms. The precise nature and degree of the pharmacological relationship between caffeine and alcohol is not yet elucidated, but it is proposed that caffeine attenuates the sedative effects of alcohol intoxication while leaving motor and cognitive impairment unaffected. This creates a potentially precarious scenario for users who may underestimate their level of intoxication and impairment. While legislation in some countries has restricted production or marketing of pre-mixed products, many individuals mix their own energy drink-alcohol 'cocktails'. Wider dissemination of the risks might help balance marketing strategies that over-emphasize putative positive effects.

Predicting problematic alcohol use with the DSM-5 alternative model of personality pathology.

PubMed

Creswell, Kasey G; Bachrach, Rachel L; Wright, Aidan G C; Pinto, Anthony; Ansell, Emily

2016-01-01

High comorbidity between personality disorders and alcohol use disorders appears related to individual differences in underlying personality dimensions of behavioral undercontrol and affective dysregulation. However, very little is known about how the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th edition; DSM-5) Section III trait model of personality pathology relates to alcohol problems or how the strength of the relationship between personality pathology and alcohol problems changes with age and across gender. The current study examined these questions in a sample of 877 participants using the General Assessment of Personality Disorder to assess general personality dysfunction, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 to measure specific traits, and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess problematic alcohol use. Results demonstrated that general personality pathology (Criterion A) was significantly related to problematic alcohol use after controlling for age and gender effects. Furthermore, 2 of the 5 higher-order personality trait domains (Criterion B), Antagonism and Disinhibition, remained significant predictors of problematic alcohol use after accounting for the influence of general personality pathology; however, general personality pathology no longer predicted hazardous alcohol use once Antagonism and Disinhibition were added into the model. Finally, these 2 specific traits interacted with age, such that Antagonism was a stronger predictor of AUDIT scores among older individuals and Disinhibition was a stronger predictor of alcohol problems among younger individuals. Findings support the general validity of this new personality disorder diagnostic system and suggest important age effects in the relationship between traits and problematic alcohol use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Maternal risk factors predicting child physical characteristics and dysmorphology in fetal alcohol syndrome and partial fetal alcohol syndrome.

PubMed

May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene

2011-12-01

Previous research in South Africa revealed very high rates of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), of 46-89 per 1000 among young children. Maternal and child data from studies in this community summarize the multiple predictors of FAS and partial fetal alcohol syndrome (PFAS). Sequential regression was employed to examine influences on child physical characteristics and dysmorphology from four categories of maternal traits: physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to predict influences on child physical characteristics. Individual sequential regressions revealed that maternal drinking measures were the most powerful predictors of a child's physical anomalies (R² = .30, p < .001), followed by maternal demographics (R² = .24, p < .001), maternal physical characteristics (R²=.15, p < .001), and childbearing variables (R² = .06, p < .001). The SEM utilized both individual variables and the four composite categories of maternal traits to predict a set of child physical characteristics, including a total dysmorphology score. As predicted, drinking behavior is a relatively strong predictor of child physical characteristics (β = 0.61, p < .001), even when all other maternal risk variables are included; higher levels of drinking predict child physical anomalies. Overall, the SEM model explains 62% of the variance in child physical anomalies. As expected, drinking variables explain the most variance. But this highly controlled estimation of multiple effects also reveals a significant contribution played by maternal demographics and, to a lesser degree, maternal physical and childbearing variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Targeted intervention: Computational approaches to elucidate and predict relapse in alcoholism.

PubMed

Heinz, Andreas; Deserno, Lorenz; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Smolka, Michael N; Beck, Anne; Schlagenhauf, Florian

2017-05-01

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and addiction in general is characterized by failures of choice resulting in repeated drug intake despite severe negative consequences. Behavioral change is hard to accomplish and relapse after detoxification is common and can be promoted by consumption of small amounts of alcohol as well as exposure to alcohol-associated cues or stress. While those environmental factors contributing to relapse have long been identified, the underlying psychological and neurobiological mechanism on which those factors act are to date incompletely understood. Based on the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse, animal experiments showed that drug, cue and stress exposure affect Pavlovian and instrumental learning processes, which can increase salience of drug cues and promote habitual drug intake. In humans, computational approaches can help to quantify changes in key learning mechanisms during the development and maintenance of alcohol dependence, e.g. by using sequential decision making in combination with computational modeling to elucidate individual differences in model-free versus more complex, model-based learning strategies and their neurobiological correlates such as prediction error signaling in fronto-striatal circuits. Computational models can also help to explain how alcohol-associated cues trigger relapse: mechanisms such as Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer can quantify to which degree Pavlovian conditioned stimuli can facilitate approach behavior including alcohol seeking and intake. By using generative models of behavioral and neural data, computational approaches can help to quantify individual differences in psychophysiological mechanisms that underlie the development and maintenance of AUD and thus promote targeted intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attention to advertising and memory for brands under alcohol intoxication.

PubMed

Orquin, Jacob L; Jeppesen, Heine B; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis

2014-01-01

In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%.

Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2015-12-01

In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

Reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes through the use of social marketing.

PubMed

Rothschild, Michael L; Mastin, Beth; Miller, Thomas W

2006-11-01

Over the past decade there has been little decrease in the number of alcohol-related driving fatalities. During this time most interventions have been educational or legal. This paper presents the results of a field experiment that used social marketing to introduce a new ride program into three rural communities. Almost all people in the 21-34-year-old target know that they should not drive while impaired, and most agree it is not a good thing to do, but for many the opportunity to behave properly does not exist. The Road Crew program was developed using new product development techniques and implemented by developing broad coalitions within the communities. A key feature of the program included rides to, between, and home from bars in older luxury vehicles. Results showed a significant shift in riding/driving behavior, especially among 21-34-year olds, a projected 17% decline in alcohol-related crashes in the first year, no increase in drinking behavior, and large savings between the reactive cost of cleaning up after a crash and the proactive cost of avoiding a crash. Programs have become self-sustaining based on fares and tavern contributions, and have become part of the life style in the treatment communities.

Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Eddie Chi-Man; Wang, Ziyou

2015-05-01

Academia takes interest in cyclicality of real estate market. Compared to various findings on housing cycles, no literature takes insight into the cycles of securitized property markets. To address the issue, a nonlinear model is developed to probe into the characteristics of cycles in global markets (US, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) over the last 23 years. The findings suggest that (a) cointegrating relationships influence the six markets in the long term and become stronger during bullish markets. (b) The short-term dynamics of each market is more likely to have a regime-switching structure. (c) The cyclical pattern shows differences between securitized property and housing markets, as well as between securitized property and general stock markets. Meanwhile, the cyclical pattern in developed markets is also different from that in developing markets. (d) The duration dependence shows a weak effect of the boom on predicting the occurrence of the upcoming bust. Instead, the magnitude of boom growth plays a significant role in predicting the duration of following bust. (e) The asymmetric analysis brings forward the "paralleling effect" which indicates that the asymmetry in returns is parallel with the movements of r. The methodology shall serve in providing detailed implications on the characters of cycle and duration forecast in securitized property markets for investors and governments.

Perceived sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies and behavior predict substance-related sexual revictimization.

PubMed

Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B; Denardi, Kathleen A; Walker, Dave P

2013-05-01

Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

PubMed Central

Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

2013-01-01

Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

Alcohol Dehydrogenase Activities of Wine Yeasts in Relation to Higher Alcohol Formation

PubMed Central

Singh, Rajendra; Kunkee, Ralph E.

1976-01-01

Alcohol dehydrogenase activities were examined in cell-free extracts of 10 representative wine yeast strains having various productivities of higher alcohols (fusel oil). The amount of fusel alcohols (n-propanol, isobutanol, active pentanol, and isopentanol) produced by the different yeasts and the specific alcohol dehydrogenase activities with the corresponding alcohols as substrates were found to be significantly related. No such relationship was found for ethanol. The amounts of higher alcohols formed during vinification could be predicted from the specific activities of the alcohol dehydrogenases with high accuracy. The results suggest a close relationship between the control of the activities of alcohol dehydrogenase and the formation of fusel oil alcohols. Also, new procedures for the prediction of higher alcohol formation during alcoholic beverage fermentation are suggested. PMID:16345179

The Role of Specific Alcohol-Related Problems in Predicting Depressive Experiences in a Cross-Sectional National Household Survey.

PubMed

McBride, Orla; Cheng, Hui G; Slade, Tim; Lynskey, Michael T

2016-11-01

This study examines the type of alcohol-related problems that commonly occur before the onset of depressive experiences to shed light on the mechanisms underlying the alcohol-depression comorbidity relationship. Data were from the 1992 USA National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey. Analytical sample comprised of drinkers with a prior to past year (PPY) history of alcohol-related problems with or without any experiences of depressed mood in the past year (PY). The prevalence of PPY alcohol-related problems was examined, as well as the ability of specific alcohol problems to predict PY experiences of depressed mood. The type of depressed mood experienced by drinkers with PPY history of alcohol-related problems was compared to those without. All but one alcohol-related problem PPY was more frequently endorsed among drinkers with PY experiences of depressed mood. Controlling for confounders, five alcohol-related problems experienced PPY were significantly predictive of depressed mood PY: tolerance, drinking longer than intended, inability to perform important social and occupational roles/obligations, as well as drinking in physically hazardous situations. Drinkers with alcohol-related problems PPY more frequently experienced difficulties with concentration, energy, and thoughts of death, than those without. Alcohol-related problems are likely associated with depressive experiences through a complex network, whereby experiences of physical dependence and negative consequences increase the likelihood of negative affect. Novel study designs are necessary to fully understand the complex mechanisms underlying this comorbidity. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Determinants of underage college student drinking: implications for four major alcohol reduction strategies.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Hove, Thomas

2012-01-01

Guided by the assumptions of the social ecological model and the social marketing approach, this study provides a simultaneous and comprehensive assessment of 4 major alcohol reduction strategies for college campuses: school education programs, social norms campaigns, alcohol counter-marketing, and alcohol control policies. Analysis of nationally representative secondary survey data among 5,472 underage students reveals that alcohol marketing seems to be the most formidable risk factor for underage drinking, followed by perceived drinking norms (injunctive norm) and lax policy enforcement. This analysis suggests that, to make social norms campaigns and alcohol control policies more effective, alcohol reduction strategies should be developed to counter the powerful influence of alcohol marketing and promotions.

Alcohol consumption in early adulthood and schooling completed and labor market outcomes at midlife by race and gender.

PubMed

Sloan, Frank A; Grossman, Daniel S

2011-11-01

We assessed the relation of alcohol consumption in young adulthood to problem alcohol consumption 10 years later and to educational attainment and labor market outcomes at midlife. We considered whether these relations differ between Blacks and Whites. We classified individuals on the basis of their drinking frequency patterns with data from the 1982 to 1984 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (respondents aged 19-27 years). We assessed alcohol consumption from the 1991 reinterview (respondents aged 26-34 years) and midlife outcomes from the 2006 reinterview (respondents aged 41-49 years). Black men who consumed 12 or more drinks per week at baseline had lower earnings at midlife, but no corresponding relation for Black women or Whites was found. Black men and Black women who consumed 12 or more drinks per week at baseline had lower occupational attainment than did White male non-drinkers and White female non-drinkers, respectively, but this result was not statistically significant. The relation between alcohol consumption in young adulthood and important outcomes at midlife differed between Blacks and Whites and between Black men and Black women, although Blacks' alcohol consumption at baseline was lower on average than was that of Whites.

Evaluating the Effect of a Campus-Wide Social Norms Marketing Intervention on Alcohol-Use Perceptions, Consumption, and Blackouts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Jinni; Hancock, Linda; Wattenmaker McGann, Amanda; Alshagra, Mariam; Ericson, Rhianna; Niazi, Zackaria; Dick, Danielle M.; Adkins, Amy

2018-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a campus-wide social norms marketing intervention on alcohol-use perceptions, consumption, and blackouts at a large, urban, public university. Participants: 4,172 college students (1,208 freshmen, 1,159 sophomores, 953 juniors, and 852 seniors) who completed surveys in Spring 2015 for the Spit for Science…

How the alcohol industry relies on harmful use of alcohol and works to protect its profits.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Callinan, Sarah; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Cuong, Pham Viet; Kazantseva, Elena; Bayandorj, Tsogzolmaa; Huckle, Taisia; Parker, Karl; Railton, Renee; Wall, Martin

2016-11-01

The alcohol industry have attempted to position themselves as collaborators in alcohol policy making as a way of influencing policies away from a focus on the drivers of the harmful use of alcohol (marketing, over availability and affordability). Their framings of alcohol consumption and harms allow them to argue for ineffective measures, largely targeting heavier consumers, and against population wide measures as the latter will affect moderate drinkers. The goal of their public relations organisations is to 'promote responsible drinking'. However, analysis of data collected in the International Alcohol Control study and used to estimate how much heavier drinking occasions contribute to the alcohol market in five different countries shows the alcohol industry's reliance on the harmful use of alcohol. In higher income countries heavier drinking occasions make up approximately 50% of sales and in middle income countries it is closer to two-thirds. It is this reliance on the harmful use of alcohol which underpins the conflicting interests between the transnational alcohol corporations and public health and which militates against their involvement in the alcohol policy arena. [Caswell S, Callinan S, Chaiyasong S, Cuong PV, Kazantseva E, Bayandorj T, Huckle T, Parker K, Railton R, Wall M. How the alcohol industry relies on harmful use of alcohol and works to protect its profits. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:661-664]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Health, alcohol and EU law: understanding the impact of European single market law on alcohol policies.

PubMed

Baumberg, Ben; Anderson, Peter

2008-08-01

Many professionals in the alcohol field see the role of the the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as negative for health. This review examines ECJ and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) case law in the context of two broader debates: firstly the extension of European Union (EU) law into alcohol policy (the 'juridification' of alcohol policy), and secondly the extent to which alcohol policy is an example of the dominance of 'negative integration' (the removal of trade-distorting policy) over 'positive integration' (the creation of European alcohol policies). A comprehensive review of all ECJ/EFTA Court cases on alcohol, with interpretation aided by a secondary review on alcohol and EU law and the broader health and trade field. From looking at taxation, minimum pricing, advertising and monopoly policies, the extension of the scope of the these courts over alcohol policy is unquestionable. However, the ECJ and EFTA Court have been prepared to prioritize health over trade concerns when considering alcohol policies, providing certain conditions have been met. While a partial juridification of alcohol policy has led to the negative integration of alcohol policies, this effect is not as strong as sometimes thought; EU law is more health friendly than it is perceived to be, and its impact on levels of alcohol-related harm appears low. Nevertheless, lessons emerge for policymakers concerned about the legality of alcohol policies under EU law. More generally, those concerned with alcohol and health should pay close attention to developments in EU law given their importance for public health policy on alcohol.

Social distance, perceived drinking by peers, and alcohol use by college students.

PubMed

Yanovitzky, Itzhak; Stewart, Lea P; Lederman, Linda C

2006-01-01

Many colleges in the United States are employing social norms marketing campaigns with the goal of reducing college students' alcohol use by correcting misperceptions about their peers' alcohol use. Although the typical message used in these campaigns describes the quantity and frequency of alcohol use by the average student on campus, many students may find such a vague comparison to others to be socially irrelevant. This study compares the relative weight of perceptions about alcohol use by distant versus proximate peers in the prediction of college students' personal drinking behavior. The results of analyzing data collected from a sample of college students at a large public northeastern university (N=276) show that, as hypothesized, perceived alcohol use by proximate peers (best friends and friends) was a stronger predictor of students' personal alcohol use than perceived alcohol use by more distant peers (such as students in general), controlling for other strong predictors of alcohol use by college students (age, gender, race, off-campus residency, and sensation-seeking tendencies). The implications of these findings for the design of more effective social norms messages are discussed.

Prediction of alcohol drinking in adolescents: Personality-traits, behavior, brain responses, and genetic variations in the context of reward sensitivity.

PubMed

Heinrich, Angela; Müller, Kathrin U; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Fauth-Bühler, Mira; Papadopoulos, Dimitri; Gallinat, Jürgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paus, Tomáš; Pausova, Zdenka; Smolka, Michael; Ströhle, Andreas; Rietschel, Marcella; Flor, Herta; Schumann, Gunter; Nees, Frauke

2016-07-01

Adolescence is a time that can set the course of alcohol abuse later in life. Sensitivity to reward on multiple levels is a major factor in this development. We examined 736 adolescents from the IMAGEN longitudinal study for alcohol drinking during early (mean age=14.37) and again later (mean age=16.45) adolescence. Conducting structural equation modeling we evaluated the contribution of reward-related personality traits, behavior, brain responses and candidate genes. Personality seems to be most important in explaining alcohol drinking in early adolescence. However, genetic variations in ANKK1 (rs1800497) and HOMER1 (rs7713917) play an equal role in predicting alcohol drinking two years later and are most important in predicting the increase in alcohol consumption. We hypothesize that the initiation of alcohol use may be driven more strongly by personality while the transition to increased alcohol use is more genetically influenced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

PubMed

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

PubMed Central

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

Alcohol advertising and youth: a measured approach.

PubMed

Jernigan, David H; Ostroff, Joshua; Ross, Craig

2005-09-01

Where alcohol industry self-regulation is the primary protection against youth exposure to alcohol advertising, independent, systematic monitoring of youth exposure can promote public awareness of and greater accountability in the industry's practices. Using commercially available databases, the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth has combined occurrence and audience data to calculate youth (aged 12-20 years) and adult (above the United States legal drinking age of 21 years) exposure to alcohol advertising on television and radio, in magazines and on the Internet. This research in the United States shows that alcohol companies have placed significant amounts of advertising where youth are more likely per capita to be exposed to it than adults. Further analyses by the Center have demonstrated that much of this excess exposure of youth to alcohol advertising in the United States could be eliminated if alcohol companies would adopt a threshold of 15% (roughly the proportion of 12-20-years-old in the population 12 and above) as the maximum youth audience composition for their advertising. Although adoption of such a threshold would still leave much youth exposure to alcohol marketing in such "unmeasured" activities as sponsorships, on-premise promotions and campus marketing, it would assist alcohol companies in reaching their intended audiences more efficiently while reducing overall youth exposure to their advertising.

Techniques for predicting high-risk drivers for alcohol countermeasures. Volume 1, Technical report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-05-01

This technical report, a companion to the Volume II User Manual by the same name describes the development and testing of predictive models for identifying individual with a high risk of alcohol/related (A/R) crash involvement. From a literature revi...

A conceptual model predicting internalizing problems in middle childhood among children of alcoholic and nonalcoholic fathers: the role of marital aggression.

PubMed

Eiden, Rina D; Molnar, Danielle S; Colder, Craig; Edwards, Ellen P; Leonard, Kenneth E

2009-09-01

The purpose of this study was to test a conceptual model predicting children's anxiety/depression in middle childhood in a community sample of children with parents who had alcohol problems (n = 112) and those without alcohol problems (n = 101). The conceptual model examined the role of parents' alcohol diagnoses, depression, and antisocial behavior among parents of children ages 12 months to kindergarten age in predicting marital aggression and parental aggravation. Higher levels of marital aggression and parental aggravation were hypothesized to predict children's depression/anxiety within time (18 months to kindergarten age and, prospectively, to age during fourth grade). The sample was recruited from New York State birth records when the children were 12 months old. Assessments were conducted at 12, 18, 24, and 36 months; at kindergarten age; and during fourth grade. Children with alcoholic fathers had higher depression/anxiety scores according to parental reports but not self-reports. Structural equations modeling was largely supportive of the conceptual model. Fathers' alcoholism was associated with higher child anxiety via greater levels of marital aggression among families with alcohol problems. Results also indicated that there was a significant indirect association between parents' depression symptoms and child anxiety via marital aggression. The results highlight the nested nature of risk characteristics in alcoholic families and the important role of marital aggression in predicting children's anxiety/depression. Interventions targeting both parents' alcohol problems and associated marital aggression are likely to provide the dual benefits of improving family interactions and lowering risk of children's internalizing behavior problems.

Cued recall of alcohol advertising on television and underage drinking behavior.

PubMed

Tanski, Susanne E; McClure, Auden C; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D

2015-03-01

Alcohol is the most common drug among youth and a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Billions of dollars are spent annually marketing alcohol. To examine the reach of television alcohol advertising and its effect on drinking among underage youth. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013 involving 2541 US adolescents 15 to 23 years of age at baseline, with 1596 of these adolescents completing the follow-up survey. Cued recall of television advertising images for top beer and distilled spirits brands that aired nationally in 2010-2011 (n = 351). Images were digitally edited to remove branding, and the respondents were queried about 20 randomly selected images. An alcohol advertising receptivity score was derived (1 point each for having seen the ad and for liking it, and 2 points for correct brand identification). Fast-food ads that aired nationally in 2010-2011 (n = 535) were similarly queried to evaluate message specificity. Among the underage youth at baseline, we determined (1) the onset of drinking among those who never drank, (2) the onset of binge drinking among those who were never binge drinkers, and (3) the onset of hazardous drinking among those with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test consumption subscore of less than 4. Multivariate regressions were used to predict each outcome, controlling for covariates (demographics, drinking among friends and parents, and sensation seeking), weighting to the US population, and using multiple imputation to address loss to follow-up. Underage participants were only slightly less likely than participants of legal drinking age to have seen alcohol ads (the mean percentage of ads seen were 23.4%, 22.7%, and 25.6%, respectively, for youth 15-17, 18-20, and 21-23 years of age; P < .005). The transition to binge and hazardous drinking occurred for 29% and 18% of youth 15 to 17 years of age and for 29% and 19% of youth 18 to 20 years years of age, respectively

Alcohol and alcohol-related harm in China: policy changes needed

PubMed Central

Tang, Yi-lang; Xiang, Xiao-jun; Wang, Xu-yi; Cubells, Joseph F; Babor, Thomas F

2013-01-01

Abstract In China, alcohol consumption is increasing faster than anywhere else in the world. A steady increase in alcohol production has also been observed in the country, together with a rise in alcohol-related harm. Despite these trends, China’s policies on the sale and consumption of alcoholic beverages are weak compared with those of other countries in Asia. Weakest of all are its policies on taxation, drink driving laws, alcohol sale to minors and marketing licenses. The authors of this descriptive paper draw attention to the urgent need for public health professionals and government officials in China to prioritize population surveillance, research and interventions designed to reduce alcohol use disorders. They describe China’s current alcohol policies and recent trends in alcohol-related harm and highlight the need for health officials to conduct a thorough policy review from a public health perspective, using as a model the World Health Organization’s global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol. PMID:23599550

Carlsberg alibi marketing in the UEFA euro 2016 football finals: implications of Probably inappropriate alcohol advertising.

PubMed

Murray, Rachael; Breton, Magdalena Opazo; Britton, John; Cranwell, Jo; Grant-Braham, Bruce

2018-04-25

Alcohol advertising is a key driver of alcohol consumption, and is prohibited in France by the Loi Evin. In 2016 the Danish brewer Carlsberg sponsored the UEFA Euro 2016 finals, held in France, and used the alibis 'Probably' and '…the best in the world' in place of Carlsberg in pitch-side advertising. We have quantified the advertising exposure achieved during the final seven games in the UEFA Euro 2016 championship. Appearances of the Carlsberg alibis 'Probably' and 'the best in the world' were counted and timed to the nearest second during all active play in live coverage of quarter final, semi-final and final matches broadcast in the UK. We used census data and viewing figures from Kantar Media to estimate gross and per capita impressions of these advertisements in the UK population. In 796 min, 29 s of active play there were 746 alibi appearances, totalling 68 min 35 s duration and representing 8.6% of active playing time. Appearances were particularly frequent at the end of normal time, extra time and penalties. The seven matches delivered up to 7.43 billion Carlsberg alibi impressions to UK adults and 163.3 million to children. In the only match involving a second country with laws prohibiting alcohol advertising (France versus Iceland), exposure occurred for only 1.8% of playing time. Alibi marketing achieved significant advertising coverage during the final seven EURO 2016 championship games, particularly to children. Since 'Probably' is registered by Carlsberg as a wordmark this advertising appears to contravene the Loi Evin, though Carlsberg have defended their marketing actions.

Combined alcohol and energy drink use: hedonistic motives, adenosine, and alcohol dependence.

PubMed

Marczinski, Cecile A

2014-07-01

Consumption of alcohol mixed with energy drinks (AmED) has been associated with both short- and long-term risks beyond those observed with alcohol alone. AmED use has been associated with heavy episodic (binge) drinking, risky behaviors, and risk of alcohol dependence. Laboratory research has demonstrated that AmED beverages lead to greater motivation to drink versus the same amount of alcohol consumed alone. However, the reason consumers find AmED beverages particularly appealing has been unclear. A recent report by Droste and colleagues (Alcohol Clin Exp Res 2014; 38:2087-2095) is the first study to investigate motivations related to AmED consumption and to determine which motives predict AmED consumption patterns, experience of drinking-related harms, and risk of alcohol dependence. The findings of this study significantly enhance our understanding of why AmED consumption is related to the risk of alcohol dependence and change our understanding of why consumers choose AmED beverages. The authors report that hedonistic motives strongly predicted AmED use and the harms associated with use. While intoxication-reduction motives predicted self-reported accidents and injuries, these motives did not predict AmED consumption patterns and risk of dependence. The risk of alcohol dependence may arise from repeated experiences when drinking alcohol is more pleasurable when energy drinks are consumed with the alcohol. This commentary will focus on why energy drinks might increase the rewarding properties of alcohol in social drinkers. In addition, discussion is provided explaining why more research on the neurotransmitter, adenosine, may actually inform us about the mechanisms contributing to the development of alcohol dependence. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Workplace responsibility, stress, alcohol availability and norms as predictors of alcohol consumption-related problems among employed workers.

PubMed

Hodgins, David C; Williams, Robert; Munro, Gordon

2009-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of alcohol use and problems among employed individuals in Alberta, Canada (N = 1,890), and to conduct a multivariate examination of predictors of alcohol consumption-related problems. General alcohol problems were identified by 10%, although very few workers described any specific work-related alcohol problems (1%). Structural equation modeling revealed that, as hypothesized, workplace alcohol availability predicted general alcohol problems. Job responsibility and workplace norms also predicted alcohol problems but only for men. Perceived work stress did not predict alcohol problems. Results support the development of interventions that focus on re-shaping alcohol use norms.

The role of parental alcohol-specific communication in early adolescents' alcohol use.

PubMed

Van Der Vorst, Haske; Burk, William J; Engels, Rutger C M E

2010-10-01

Many alcohol prevention programs advocate conversations about alcohol between parents and children because verbal communication is the most direct way for parents to express their thoughts, rules, and concerns about alcohol to their children, so called alcohol-specific communication. Nevertheless, research on the effects of alcohol-specific communication has produced inconsistent findings. This study examined the bidirectional links between frequency of alcohol-specific communication and early adolescents' alcohol use, and the moderating effects on these links of gender and experience with alcohol. The longitudinal sample consisted of 428 Dutch early adolescents who were followed over 3 years. Results of structural equation models indicated that more frequent alcohol-specific communication at time two predicted more adolescent alcohol use at time three. Follow-up multiple-group analyses clearly show that prospective links between alcohol-specific communication and adolescent alcohol use were limited to adolescent males reporting the highest levels of drinking. For this group of drinking males, alcohol use predicted less parent-child communication, and more frequency of alcohol-specific communication predicted an increase in drinking. Alcohol-specific communication and adolescent alcohol use were not prospectively linked for males reporting lower levels of alcohol use or for adolescent females. These findings highlight the need for future research that examines both quantitative and qualitative aspects of how parents communicate with their adolescent children about alcohol. Advocation of specific parent-child communication skills meant to reduce youth alcohol use may be somewhat premature until additional studies refine our understanding of how specific parenting strategies are linked to different patterns of adolescent alcohol use. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can human rights standards help protect children and youth from the detrimental impact of alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities?

PubMed

Chapman, Audrey R

2017-01-01

The alcohol industry in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region promotes demand for alcohol products actively through a number of channels, including advertising and sponsorship of sports and other events. This paper evaluates whether human rights instruments that Latin American countries have ratified can be used to limit children's exposure to alcohol advertising and promotion. A review was conducted of the text of, and interpretative documents related to, a series of international and regional human rights instruments ratified by most countries in the LAC region that enumerate the right to health. The Convention on the Rights of the Child has the most relevant provisions to protect children and youth from alcohol promotion and advertising. Related interpretive documents by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child affirm that corporations hold duties to respect and protect children's right to health. Human rights norms and law can be used to regulate or eliminate alcohol beverage marketing and promotional activities in the Latin American region. The paper recommends developing a human rights based Framework Convention on Alcohol Control to provide guidance. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Race, Ethnicity, and Exposure to Alcohol Outlets.

PubMed

Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J; Ponicki, William R

2016-01-01

Prior studies suggest that Black and Hispanic minority populations are exposed to greater concentrations of alcohol outlets, potentially contributing to health disparities between these populations and the White majority. We tested the alternative hypothesis that urban economic systems cause outlets to concentrate in low-income areas and, controlling for these effects, lower demand among minority populations leads to fewer outlets. Market potential for alcohol sales, a surrogate for demand, was estimated from survey and census data across census block groups for 50 California cities. Hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models then estimated relationships between observed geographic distributions of outlets and the market potential for alcohol, income, population size, and racial and ethnic composition. Market potentials were significantly smaller among lower income Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Block groups with greater market potential and lower income had greater concentrations of outlets. When we controlled for these effects, the racial and ethnic group composition of block groups was mostly unrelated to outlet concentrations. Health disparities related to exposure to alcohol outlets are primarily driven by distributions of income and population density across neighborhoods.

Comparing media and family predictors of alcohol use: a cohort study of US adolescents

PubMed Central

Stoolmiller, Mike; Wills, Thomas A; McClure, Auden C; Tanski, Susanne E; Worth, Keilah A; Gerrard, Meg

2012-01-01

Objective To compare media/marketing exposures and family factors in predicting adolescent alcohol use. Design Cohort study. Setting Confidential telephone survey of adolescents in their homes. Participants Representative sample of 6522 US adolescents, aged 10–14 years at baseline and surveyed four times over 2 years. Primary outcome measure Time to alcohol onset and progression to binge drinking were assessed with two survival models. Predictors were movie alcohol exposure (MAE), ownership of alcohol-branded merchandise and characteristics of the family (parental alcohol use, home availability of alcohol and parenting). Covariates included sociodemographics, peer drinking and personality factors. Results Over the study period, the prevalence of adolescent ever use and binge drinking increased from 11% to 25% and from 4% to 13%, respectively. At baseline, the median estimated MAE from a population of 532 movies was 4.5 h and 11% owned alcohol-branded merchandise at time 2. Parental alcohol use (greater than or equal to weekly) was reported by 23% and 29% of adolescents could obtain alcohol from home. Peer drinking, MAE, alcohol-branded merchandise, age and rebelliousness were associated with both alcohol onset and progression to binge drinking. The adjusted hazard ratios for alcohol onset and binge drinking transition for high versus low MAE exposure were 2.13 (95% CI 1.76 to 2.57) and 1.63 (1.20 to 2.21), respectively, and MAE accounted for 28% and 20% of these transitions, respectively. Characteristics of the family were associated with alcohol onset but not with progression. Conclusion The results suggest that family focused interventions would have a larger impact on alcohol onset while limiting media and marketing exposure could help prevent both onset and progression. PMID:22349939

International alcohol control study: pricing data and hours of purchase predict heavier drinking.

PubMed

Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Yeh, Li Chia

2014-05-01

This study reports findings from the International Alcohol Control (IAC) study that assesses the impact of alcohol control policy on consumption and policy-related behaviors. Modeled on the International Tobacco Control study that uses longitudinal surveys with comparison between countries, the baseline survey was carried out in New Zealand. This study reports analysis of the purchasing behavior respondents report separately for on- and off-premise outlets, providing validation data for both alcohol consumption and reported prices. New Zealand is a high-income country with an adult per capita alcohol consumption (as of 2011) of 9.5 l. The survey was carried out among a nationally representative sample of drinkers. Interview data on place and time of purchase, amounts purchased, price paid, and consumption (beverage and location specific) was collected. Relationships between policy relevant variables and consumption were modeled taking into account demographic variables. Validation was provided by government data on alcohol available for consumption, aggregate expenditure and prices from the Consumer Price Index. Drinkers paying low prices at on- or off-licensed premises had higher odds of consuming 6+ drinks on a typical occasion, as did drinkers purchasing alcohol at later times. Regarding frequency, drinkers purchasing at later times were more likely to be daily drinkers. Lower price in off licenses but not on licenses predicted daily drinking. The data collected accounted for approximately 96% of alcohol available for consumption and the prices accounted for 98% of aggregate expenditure. Valid survey data were collected to give an accurate picture of alcohol consumption and prices paid by drinkers. Heavy drinkers were more likely to buy cheaper alcohol and purchase at later times; 2 policy issues under discussion in many settings. This analysis suggests the IAC study that has the potential to provide data to contribute to the debate on appropriate policy

Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

Using the AUDIT-PC to predict alcohol withdrawal in hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Pecoraro, Anna; Ewen, Edward; Horton, Terry; Mooney, Ruth; Kolm, Paul; McGraw, Patty; Woody, George

2014-01-01

Alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) occurs when alcohol-dependent individuals abruptly reduce or stop drinking. Hospitalized alcohol-dependent patients are at risk. Hospitals need a validated screening tool to assess withdrawal risk, but no validated tools are currently available. To examine the admission Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-(Piccinelli) Consumption (AUDIT-PC) ability to predict the subsequent development of AWS among hospitalized medical-surgical patients admitted to a non-intensive care setting. Retrospective case–control study of patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of AWS. All patients with AWS were classified as presenting with AWS or developing AWS later during admission. Patients admitted to an intensive care setting and those missing AUDIT-PC scores were excluded from analysis. A hierarchical (by hospital unit) logistic regression was performed and receiver-operating characteristics were examined on those developing AWS after admission and randomly selected controls. Because those diagnosing AWS were not blinded to the AUDIT-PC scores, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The study cohort included all patients age ≥18 years admitted to any medical or surgical units in a single health care system from 6 October 2009 to 7 October 2010. After exclusions, 414 patients were identified with AWS. The 223 (53.9 %) who developed AWS after admission were compared to 466 randomly selected controls without AWS. An AUDIT-PC score ≥4 at admission provides 91.0 % sensitivity and 89.7 % specificity (AUC=0.95; 95 % CI, 0.94–0.97) for AWS, and maximizes the correct classification while resulting in 17 false positives for every true positive identified. Performance remained excellent on sensitivity analysis (AUC=0.92; 95 % CI, 0.90–0.93). Increasing AUDIT-PC scores were associated with an increased risk of AWS (OR=1.68, 95 % CI 1.55–1.82, p<0.001). The admission AUDIT-PC score is an excellent discriminator of AWS and could be

Disclosure and Exposure of Alcohol on Social Media and Later Alcohol Use: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Erevik, Eilin K; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Andreassen, Cecilie S; Vedaa, Øystein; Pallesen, Ståle

2017-01-01

This article aims to investigate whether alcohol-related disclosure and exposure on social media can predict later alcohol use, and to identify covariates in these relationships. Data were collected by online surveys (two waves) among students in Bergen, Norway. The first survey was administered in fall 2015. The follow-up took place during fall 2016. A total of 5,217 students participated in both waves. The surveys included questions about demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions (e.g., attitudes and norms), social media use, and disclosure and exposure of alcohol on social media. Bivariate comparisons were conducted to assess differences in alcohol use between the frequent (i.e., monthly or more often) disclosure and exposure groups and low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups. Crude and adjusted linear regressions were employed to investigate if disclosure and exposure of alcohol could predict later alcohol use, when controlling for a range of covariates. Compared to the low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups, participants which frequently disclosed or were frequently exposed to alcohol-related content had higher alcohol use at baseline and 1 year later ( p < 0.001), when no covariates were controlled for. Frequent disclosure of content reflecting positive aspects of alcohol predicted stable or slightly increased alcohol use at Time 2 ( p < 0.01), even when all covariates (i.e., demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions, and social media use) were controlled for. In conclusion, frequent disclosure and/or exposure to alcohol-related content predicted alcohol use over time. Alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media could for the most part not predict later alcohol use when baseline alcohol use was controlled for. High alcohol use and alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media appear to be strongly intertwined, which hampers identification of directionality between alcohol use and disclosure

Disclosure and Exposure of Alcohol on Social Media and Later Alcohol Use: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Erevik, Eilin K.; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Andreassen, Cecilie S.; Vedaa, Øystein; Pallesen, Ståle

2017-01-01

This article aims to investigate whether alcohol-related disclosure and exposure on social media can predict later alcohol use, and to identify covariates in these relationships. Data were collected by online surveys (two waves) among students in Bergen, Norway. The first survey was administered in fall 2015. The follow-up took place during fall 2016. A total of 5,217 students participated in both waves. The surveys included questions about demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions (e.g., attitudes and norms), social media use, and disclosure and exposure of alcohol on social media. Bivariate comparisons were conducted to assess differences in alcohol use between the frequent (i.e., monthly or more often) disclosure and exposure groups and low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups. Crude and adjusted linear regressions were employed to investigate if disclosure and exposure of alcohol could predict later alcohol use, when controlling for a range of covariates. Compared to the low-frequent disclosure and exposure groups, participants which frequently disclosed or were frequently exposed to alcohol-related content had higher alcohol use at baseline and 1 year later (p < 0.001), when no covariates were controlled for. Frequent disclosure of content reflecting positive aspects of alcohol predicted stable or slightly increased alcohol use at Time 2 (p < 0.01), even when all covariates (i.e., demographics, personality, alcohol use, alcohol-related cognitions, and social media use) were controlled for. In conclusion, frequent disclosure and/or exposure to alcohol-related content predicted alcohol use over time. Alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media could for the most part not predict later alcohol use when baseline alcohol use was controlled for. High alcohol use and alcohol disclosure/exposure on social media appear to be strongly intertwined, which hampers identification of directionality between alcohol use and disclosure

Attention to advertising and memory for brands under alcohol intoxication

PubMed Central

Orquin, Jacob L.; Jeppesen, Heine B.; Scholderer, Joachim; Haugtvedt, Curtis

2014-01-01

In an attempt to discover new possibilities for advertising in uncluttered environments marketers have recently begun using ambient advertising in, for instance, bars and pubs. However, advertising in such licensed premises have to deal with the fact that many consumers are under the influence of alcohol while viewing the ad. This paper examines the effect of alcohol intoxication on attention to and memory for advertisements in two experiments. Study 1 used a forced exposure manipulation and revealed increased attention to logos under alcohol intoxication consistent with the psychopharmacological prediction that alcohol intoxication narrows attention to the more salient features in the visual environment. Study 2 used a voluntary exposure manipulation in which ads were embedded in a magazine. The experiment revealed that alcohol intoxication reduces voluntary attention to ads and leads to a significant reduction in memory for the viewed ads. In popular terms consuming one or two beers reduces brand recall from 40 to 36% while being heavily intoxicated further reduces brand recall to 17%. PMID:24723899

Establishing a Real-Money Prediction Market for Climate on Decadal Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.; Hand, D. J.; Harding, D. W.

2016-12-01

A plan to establish a not-for-profit prediction market that will allow participants to bet on the value of selected climate variables decades into the future will be presented. It is hoped that this market will provide an objective measure of the consensus view on climate change, including information concerning the uncertainty of climate projections. The proposed design of the market and the definition of the climate variables underlying the contracts will be discussed, as well as relevant regulatory and legal issues.

The predictive utility of drinking refusal self-efficacy and alcohol expectancy: a diary-based study of tension reduction.

PubMed

Young, R M; Oei, T P

2000-01-01

The potential tension reduction effects of alcohol may be most appropriately tested by examining the role of alcohol related beliefs regarding alcohol's anxiolytic properties. The relationship between affective change drinking refusal self-efficacy, tension reduction alcohol expectancies, and ongoing drinking behavior was examined amongst 57 regular drinkers. Alcohol consumption, antecedent, and consequent mood states were monitored prospectively by diary, Social learning theory hypothesizes that low drinking refusal self-efficacy when experiencing a negative mood state should be associated with more frequent drinking when tense. Strong alcohol expectancies of tension reduction were hypothesized to predict subsequent tension reduction. Contrary to this hypothesis, the present study found that alcohol expectancies were more strongly related to antecedent mood states. Only a weak relationship between drinking refusal self-efficacy and predrinking tension, and between alcohol expectancy and subsequent tension reduction, was evident.

Socioeconomic determinants of exposure to alcohol outlets.

PubMed

Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J; Ponicki, William R

2015-05-01

Alcohol outlets tend to be located in lower income areas, exposing lower income populations to excess risks associated with alcohol sales through these establishments. The objective of this study was to test two hypotheses about the etiology of these differential exposures based on theories of the economic geography of retail markets: (a) outlets will locate within or near areas of high alcohol demand, and (b) outlets will be excluded from areas with high land and structure rents. Data from the 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used to develop a surrogate for alcohol demand (i.e., market potential) at two census geographies for the city of Melbourne, Australia. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated multilevel spatial relationships between counts of bars, restaurants, and off-premise outlets and market potential, income, and zoning ordinances (Level 1: n = 8,914). Market potentials were greatest in areas with larger older age, male, English-speaking, high-income populations. Independent of zoning characteristics, greater numbers of outlets appeared in areas with greater market potentials and the immediately surrounding areas. Greater income excluded outlets in local and surrounding areas. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that alcohol outlets are located in areas with high demand and are excluded from high-income areas. These processes appear to take place at relatively small geographic scales, encourage the concentration of outlets in specific low-income areas, and represent a very general economic process likely to take place in communities throughout the world.

Performance of non-invasive models of fibrosis in predicting mild to moderate fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Mohammad S; Patidar, Kavish R; Boyett, Sherry; Luketic, Velimir A; Puri, Puneet; Sanyal, Arun J

2016-04-01

In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, presence of fibrosis is predictive of long-term liver-related complications. Currently, there are no reliable and non-invasive means of quantifying fibrosis in those with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of a panel of non-invasive models in predicting fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The accuracy of FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, fibrosis 4 and four other non-invasive models in predicting fibrosis in those with biopsy proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was compared. These models were constructed post hoc in patients who had necessary clinical information collected within 2 months of a liver biopsy. The areas under receiver operating characteristics curves were compared for each model using Delong analysis. Optimum cut-off for each model and fibrosis stage were calculated using the Youden index. The area under receiver operating characteristics curves for F ≥ 1 fibrosis for fibrosis 4 and FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was 0.821 and 0.801 respectively. For F ≥ 3, the area under receiver operating characteristics curves was 0.866 for fibrosis 4 and 0.862 for FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Delong analysis showed the area under receiver operating characteristics curves was statistically different for fibrosis 4 and FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease compared with BARD, BAAT and aspartate aminotransferase:alanine aminotransferase ratio for F ≥ 1 and F ≥ 3. Area under receiver operating characteristics curves were significantly different for fibrosis 4 and FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease for F ≥ 3 compared with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score. At a fixed sensitivity of 90%, FibroMeter non-alcoholic fatty liver disease had the highest specificity for F ≥ 1 (52.4%) and F ≥ 3 (63.8%). In contrast, at a fixed specificity of 90%, fibrosis 4 outperformed other models with a

Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

PubMed

Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

2016-01-01

Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

PubMed

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Exposure of African-American Youth to Alcohol Advertising.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2003

The marketing of alcohol products in African-American communities has, on occasion, stirred national controversy and met with fierce resistance from African Americans and others. Despite occasional media and community spotlights on the marketing of alcohol products in the African-American community, there has been no systematic review of the…

Physiological Response to Reward and Extinction Predicts Alcohol, Marijuana, and Cigarette Use Two Years Later

PubMed Central

Derefinko, Karen J.; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A.; Peters, Jessica R.; Roberts, Walter; Walsh, Erin C.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.

2017-01-01

Background Physiological responses to reward and extinction are believed to represent the Behavioral Activation System (BAS) and Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory and underlie externalizing behaviors, including substance use. However, little research has examined these relations directly. Methods We assessed individuals’ cardiac pre-ejection periods (PEP) and electrodermal responses (EDR) during reward and extinction trials through the “Number Elimination Game” paradigm. Responses represented BAS and BIS, respectively. We then examined whether these responses provided incremental utility in the prediction of future alcohol, marijuana, and cigarette use. Results Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression models were used to examine the predictive utility of physiological BAS and BIS responses above and beyond previous substance use. Physiological responses accounted for incremental variance over previous use. Low BAS responses during reward predicted frequency of alcohol use at year 3. Low BAS responses during reward and extinction and high BIS responses during extinction predicted frequency of marijuana use at year 3. For cigarette use, low BAS response during extinction predicted use at year 3. Conclusions These findings suggest that the constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, as assessed through physiology, contribute to the longitudinal maintenance of substance use. PMID:27306728

Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

PubMed

Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

2016-06-14

to investigate the ability to predict the outcome of alcohol use disorders through Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R). this is a prospective study consisting of 237 outpatients with alcohol use disorders who underwent follow-up treatment for 6 months and whose personality traits were studied using TCI-R. At the end of that period, the scores of each TCI-R trait were analyzed in terms of those who remained in treatment and those who dropped out. The whole group scored highly in novelty seeking (NS) and harm avoidance (HA) and produced low scores in self-directedness (SD), these last traits are considered prominent. The drop-out group scored significantly (p=.004) higher in novelty seeking (NS) than the follow-up group. Also, when the score was higher than the 67 percentile the likelihood of abandoning the treatment was 1.07 times higher. Cloninger's temperament and character inventory is a good instrument to predict the outcome of treatment of patients with alcohol use disorders and the novelty seeking (NS) dimension is strongly related to therapeutic drop-out.

Economic issues and public alcohol abuse prevention policies in France

PubMed

Spach, Miléna

2016-10-19

Objective: To analyse the impact of the alcohol market on the implementation of strong-willed public alcohol abuse prevention policies based on a critical review of the literature. Method: Documentary research and analysis of the alcohol market economic data were performed. An overview of public alcohol abuse prevention policies was conducted from a historical perspective by distinguishing drunkenness control policies, protection of vulnerable populations, and the fight against drink driving and drinking in the workplace. Results: Public alcohol abuse prevention policies are primarily designed to reduce the harmful consequences of alcohol occurring as a result of a drinking episode (motor vehicle accident, highway accidents, etc.), while neglecting the long-term consequences (cancer, cirrhosis, etc.). Moreover, while taxation is one of the major public health tools used to reduce the costs of alcohol-related damage on society, the State exercises legislative and tax protection for alcoholic beverages produced in France. In particular, wine benefits from a lower tax rate than other stronger forms of alcohol (spirits, liquors, etc.). The economic weight of the alcohol market can provide an explanation for these public alcohol abuse prevention policies. Conclusion: In view of the mortality caused by alcohol abuse, France must implement a proactive public policy. An alcohol taxation policy based on the alcohol content, a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, or higher taxes on alcohol are public policies that could be considered in order to reduce alcohol-related mortality.

Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

PubMed

Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

2017-06-01

An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing

Strengthening the Canadian alcohol advertising regulatory system.

PubMed

Heung, Carly M; Rempel, Benjamin; Krank, Marvin

2012-05-24

Research evidence points to harmful effects from alcohol advertising among children and youth. In particular, exposure to alcohol advertising has been associated with adolescents drinking both earlier and heavier. Although current federal and provincial guidelines have addressed advertising practices to prevent underage drinking, practice has not been supported by existing policy. While protective measures such as social marketing campaigns have the potential for counteracting the effects from alcohol advertising, the effectiveness of such measures can be easily drowned out with increasing advertising activities from the alcohol industry, especially without effective regulation. Research reviewed by the European Focus on Alcohol Safe Environment (FASE) Project has identified a set of key elements that are necessary to make alcohol advertising policy measures effective at protecting children and youth from the harmful effects of alcohol marketing. Using these key elements as an evaluation framework, there are critical components in the Canadian alcohol advertising regulatory system that clearly require strengthening. To protect impressionable children and youth against the harmful effects of alcohol advertising, 13 recommendations to strengthen current alcohol advertising regulations in Canada are provided for Canadian policy-makers, advertising standard agencies, and public health groups.

Depictions of Alcohol Use in a UK Government Partnered Online Social Marketing Campaign: "Hollyoaks" "The Morning after the Night before"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atkinson, Amanda Marie; Sumnall, Harry; Measham, Fiona

2011-01-01

Aims: This study analysed the depiction of alcohol in an online government partnered social marketing campaign: Hollyoaks "The Morning After the Night Before". This was a new initiative, providing Internet-delivered episodes of a popular terrestrial drama targeted at young people. Methods: All the 12 episodes were coded for "visual…

Race, Ethnicity, and Exposure to Alcohol Outlets

PubMed Central

Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Ponicki, William R.

2016-01-01

Objective: Prior studies suggest that Black and Hispanic minority populations are exposed to greater concentrations of alcohol outlets, potentially contributing to health disparities between these populations and the White majority. We tested the alternative hypothesis that urban economic systems cause outlets to concentrate in low-income areas and, controlling for these effects, lower demand among minority populations leads to fewer outlets. Method: Market potential for alcohol sales, a surrogate for demand, was estimated from survey and census data across census block groups for 50 California cities. Hierarchical Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models then estimated relationships between observed geographic distributions of outlets and the market potential for alcohol, income, population size, and racial and ethnic composition. Results: Market potentials were significantly smaller among lower income Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Block groups with greater market potential and lower income had greater concentrations of outlets. When we controlled for these effects, the racial and ethnic group composition of block groups was mostly unrelated to outlet concentrations. Conclusions: Health disparities related to exposure to alcohol outlets are primarily driven by distributions of income and population density across neighborhoods. PMID:26751356

Differences in the subjective and motivational properties of alcohol across alcohol use severity: application of a novel translational human laboratory paradigm.

PubMed

Bujarski, Spencer; Jentsch, J David; Roche, Daniel J O; Ramchandani, Vijay A; Miotto, Karen; Ray, Lara A

2018-05-08

The Allostatic Model proposes that Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) is associated with a transition in the motivational structure of alcohol drinking: from positive reinforcement in early-stage drinking to negative reinforcement in late-stage dependence. However, direct empirical support for this preclinical model from human experiments is limited. This study tests predictions derived from the Allostatic Model in humans. Specifically, this study tested whether alcohol use severity (1) independently predicts subjective responses to alcohol (SR; comprised of stimulation/hedonia, negative affect, sedation and craving domains), and alcohol self-administration and 2) moderates associations between domains of SR and alcohol self-administration. Heavy drinking participants ranging in severity of alcohol use and problems (N = 67) completed an intravenous alcohol administration paradigm combining an alcohol challenge (target BrAC = 60 mg%), with progressive ratio self-administration. Alcohol use severity was associated with greater baseline negative affect, sedation, and craving but did not predict changes in any SR domain during the alcohol challenge. Alcohol use severity also predicted greater self-administration. Craving during the alcohol challenge strongly predicted self-administration and sedation predicted lower self-administration. Neither stimulation, nor negative affect predicted self-administration. This study represents a novel approach to translating preclinical neuroscientific theories to the human laboratory. As expected, craving predicted self-administration and sedation was protective. Contrary to the predictions of the Allostatic Model, however, these results were inconsistent with a transition from positively to negatively reinforced alcohol consumption in severe AUD. Future studies that assess negative reinforcement in the context of an acute stressor are warranted.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

PubMed Central

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

Prediction Markets: Another Tool in the Intelligence Kitbag

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-20

the eminent British anthropologist and statistician, Francis Galton . He was passing by an English county fair when he noticed an advertisement for a...available from http://libnt4.lib.tcu.edu/staff/bellinger/essays/ untruth.htm; Internet; accessed 14 December 2006. 18 Francis Galton , Memories of My Life...USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT PREDICTION MARKETS: ANOTHER TOOL IN THE INTELLIGENCE KITBAG by Colonel

Socioeconomic Determinants of Exposure to Alcohol Outlets

PubMed Central

Morrison, Christopher; Gruenewald, Paul J.; Ponicki, William R.

2015-01-01

Objective: Alcohol outlets tend to be located in lower income areas, exposing lower income populations to excess risks associated with alcohol sales through these establishments. The objective of this study was to test two hypotheses about the etiology of these differential exposures based on theories of the economic geography of retail markets: (a) outlets will locate within or near areas of high alcohol demand, and (b) outlets will be excluded from areas with high land and structure rents. Method: Data from the 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey were used to develop a surrogate for alcohol demand (i.e., market potential) at two census geographies for the city of Melbourne, Australia. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated multilevel spatial relationships between counts of bars, restaurants, and off-premise outlets and market potential, income, and zoning ordinances (Level 1: n = 8,914). Results: Market potentials were greatest in areas with larger older age, male, English-speaking, high-income populations. Independent of zoning characteristics, greater numbers of outlets appeared in areas with greater market potentials and the immediately surrounding areas. Greater income excluded outlets in local and surrounding areas. Conclusions: These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that alcohol outlets are located in areas with high demand and are excluded from high-income areas. These processes appear to take place at relatively small geographic scales, encourage the concentration of outlets in specific low-income areas, and represent a very general economic process likely to take place in communities throughout the world. PMID:25978830

Litigation and alcohol policy: lessons from the US Tobacco Wars.

PubMed

Mosher, James F

2009-02-01

This paper explores the role of litigation in preventing alcohol-related harms, identifying lessons from the use of litigation in tobacco control policy in the United States. It analyzes the key components of litigation in an international context, provides a case study of its potential use in addressing the marketing of alcopops to youth and offers recommendations for pursuing litigation strategies in future alcohol policy efforts. The paper's analyses are based on both original and secondary legal research. State and federal case law and secondary sources are reviewed in assessing lessons learned from tobacco litigation in the United States and the potential role of litigation in alcohol policy, both in the United States and internationally. Assessment of alcohol litigation cases and state and federal laws and regulations provides the foundation for the alcopops case study. The tobacco litigation experience demonstrates that litigation is a powerful tool in addressing aggressive marketing by purveyors of addictive products such as alcohol. To be effective at both national and international levels, litigation should encompass a broad array of legal tactics designed to identify and restrict unfair, deceptive and misleading alcohol marketing tactics and should be utilized in conjunction with complementary prevention strategies. Research conducted on the impact of alcohol marketing on youth alcohol consumption and problems is needed to support potential litigation claims. Developing litigation expertise within the alcohol policy field and building collaboration with litigation specialists in tobacco control should also be considered a high priority.

Cued Recall of Alcohol Advertising on Television and Underage Drinking Behavior

PubMed Central

Tanski, Susanne E.; McClure, Auden C.; Li, Zhigang; Jackson, Kristina; Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Sargent, James D.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Alcohol is the most common drug among youth and a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Billions of dollars are spent annually marketing alcohol. OBJECTIVE To examine the reach of television alcohol advertising and its effect on drinking among underage youth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013 involving 2541 US adolescents 15 to 23 years of age at baseline, with 1596 of these adolescents completing the follow-up survey. Cued recall of television advertising images for top beer and distilled spirits brands that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 351). Images were digitally edited to remove branding, and the respondents were queried about 20 randomly selected images. An alcohol advertising receptivity score was derived (1 point each for having seen the ad and for liking it, and 2 points for correct brand identification). Fast-food ads that aired nationally in 2010–2011 (n = 535) were similarly queried to evaluate message specificity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Among the underage youth at baseline, we determined (1) the onset of drinking among those who never drank, (2) the onset of binge drinking among those who were never binge drinkers, and (3) the onset of hazardous drinking among those with an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test consumption subscore of less than 4. Multivariate regressions were used to predict each outcome, controlling for covariates (demographics, drinking among friends and parents, and sensation seeking), weighting to the US population, and using multiple imputation to address loss to follow-up. RESULTS Underage participants were only slightly less likely than participants of legal drinking age to have seen alcohol ads (the mean percentage of ads seen were 23.4%, 22.7%, and 25.6%, respectively, for youth 15–17, 18–20, and 21–23 years of age; P < .005). The transition to binge and hazardous drinking occurred for 29% and 18% of

If You Feed Them, Will They Come? The Use of Social Marketing to Increase Interest in Attending a College Alcohol Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Rebekka S.; Kilmer, Jason R.; Larimer, Mary E.

2006-01-01

The authors used social marketing to design and test advertisement components aimed at increasing students' interest in attending an alcohol program focused on reaching students who drink heavily, although the authors offered no such program. Participants were undergraduate students in introductory psychology courses (N = 551). Questionnaires…

Developmental trends in alcohol use initiation and escalation from early- to middle-adolescence: Prediction by urgency and trait affect

PubMed Central

Spillane, Nichea S.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

2016-01-01

Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency towards rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency); and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n=944; age: M=12.16, SD=.96; 52% female) completed 6 semi-annual assessments of trait urgency and affect (wave-1) and alcohol use (waves 2–6). A two-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use vs. escalation in the volume of use amongst initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use amongst initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:27031086

Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013.

PubMed

Khaltourina, Daria; Korotayev, Andrey

2015-09-01

To elucidate the possible effects of alcohol control policy measures on alcohol-related mortality in Russia between 1998 and 2013. Trends in mortality, alcohol production and sales were analyzed in conjunction with alcohol control legislative measures. Correlation analysis of health and alcohol market indicators was performed. Ethyl alcohol production was the strongest correlate of alcohol-related mortality, which is probably due to the fact that ethyl alcohol is used for both recorded and unrecorded alcohol production. Measures producing greatest mortality reduction effect included provisions which reduced ethyl alcohol production (introduction of minimum authorized capital for ethyl alcohol and liquor producers in 2006 and the requirement for distillery dreg processing), as well as measures to tax and denaturize ethanol-containing liquids in 2006. Liquor tax decrease in real terms was associated with rising mortality in 1998-1999, while excise tax increase was associated with mortality reduction in 2004 and since 2012. Conventional alcohol control measures may also have played a moderately positive role. Countries with high alcohol-related mortality should aim for a reduction in spirits consumption as a major health policy. Alcohol market centralization and reduction of the number of producers can have immediate strong effects on mortality. These measures should be combined with an increase in alcohol taxes and prices, as well as other established alcohol policy measures. In 2015 in Russia, this is not being implemented. In Russia, legislation enforcement including excise tax collection remains the major challenge. Another challenge will be the integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Alcohol use patterns, problems and policies in Malaysia.

PubMed

Jernigan, D H; Indran, S K

1997-12-01

The roots of Malaysia's drinking patterns lie in the introduction of most forms of alcohol by Europeans. Although Malaysia today has relatively low per capita alcohol consumption, available studies and interviews with alcohol industry officials point to a small segment of the population that drinks heavily and causes and experiences substantial alcohol related-problems. Indians are over-represented in this sub-population, but studies also reveal substantial drinking problems among Chinese and Malays. Government officials categorize alcohol as an Indian problem. The government devotes little resources to monitoring drinking patterns, use or problems; or to preventing, treating or educating the public about alcohol-related problems. Alcohol-producing transnational corporations own shares of all of Malaysia's major alcohol producers. In the face of high alcohol taxes and a ban on broadcast advertising of alcoholic beverages, these companies market alcohol aggressively, making health claims, targeting heavy drinkers and encouraging heavy drinking, employing indirect advertising, and using women in seductive poses and occupations to attract the mostly male drinking population. Monitoring of the country's alcohol problems is greatly needed in order to establish alcohol consumption more clearly as a national health and safety issue, while stronger controls and greater corporate responsibility are required to control alcohol marketing.

Low alcohol alternatives: a promising strategy for reducing alcohol related harm.

PubMed

Segal, David S; Stockwell, Tim

2009-03-01

Less than 1% of the beer market in British Columbia comprises beers with an alcohol content below 4%, despite the success of low alcohol beers in other countries, e.g. Australia. A small experimental study is described in which male students were given either unmarked low alcohol beer (3.8%) or regular strength beer (5.3%) to investigate their enjoyment and subjective intoxication. Thirty-four male students who reported drinking 5 or more beers in 1 day at least once in the last month volunteered for the study. In each drinking session, small groups of between 6 and 10 students consumed two servings of beer while playing dominoes. Each subject was his own control in the experiment by attending two group-drinking sessions, drinking a different beverage each time. The different beers were given in balanced order with half the subjects in each group drinking each type of beer. Standard measures of subjective intoxication and enjoyment were used. Blood alcohol levels were tested before, during and after drinking. Although significantly higher blood alcohol levels were obtained with the higher strength beer (means of 0.026 versus 0.033 mg/100 ml at the end of the study, p < 0.001), (i) most participants reported enjoying the two sessions equally or preferred the low alcohol beer session, (ii) most did not report feeling different between the two sessions and (iii) only about half correctly guessed which was the higher alcohol content beer. There was a preference, however, for the taste of the stronger beer. We conclude beer drinkers cannot readily distinguish low and regular strength beers and can enjoy socializing equally with either. We recommend taxation strategies to create incentives for the manufacture, marketing and consumption of low alcohol alternatives.

Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

PubMed

Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

2014-04-01

The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders: gene-environment interactions, predictive biomarkers, and the relationship between structural alterations in the brain and functional outcomes.

PubMed

Reynolds, James N; Weinberg, Joanne; Clarren, Sterling; Beaulieu, Christian; Rasmussen, Carmen; Kobor, Michael; Dube, Marie-Pierre; Goldowitz, Daniel

2011-03-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure is a major, preventable cause of behavioral and cognitive deficits in children. Despite extensive research, a unique neurobehavioral profile for children affected by prenatal alcohol exposure remains elusive. A fundamental question that must be addressed is how genetic and environmental factors interact with gestational alcohol exposure to produce neurobehavioral and neurobiological deficits in children. The core objectives of the NeuroDevNet team in fetal alcohol spectrum disorders is to create an integrated research program of basic and clinical investigations that will (1) identify genetic and epigenetic modifications that may be predictive of the neurobehavioral and neurobiological dysfunctions in offspring induced by gestational alcohol exposure and (2) determine the relationship between structural alterations in the brain induced by gestational alcohol exposure and functional outcomes in offspring. The overarching hypothesis to be tested is that neurobehavioral and neurobiological dysfunctions induced by gestational alcohol exposure are correlated with the genetic background of the affected child and/or epigenetic modifications in gene expression. The identification of genetic and/or epigenetic markers that are predictive of the severity of behavioral and cognitive deficits in children affected by gestational alcohol exposure will have a profound impact on our ability to identify children at risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders: Gene-Environment Interactions, Predictive Biomarkers, and the Relationship Between Structural Alterations in the Brain and Functional Outcomes

PubMed Central

Reynolds, James N.; Weinberg, Joanne; Clarren, Sterling; Beaulieu, Christian; Rasmussen, Carmen; Kobor, Michael; Dube, Marie-Pierre; Goldowitz, Daniel

2016-01-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure is a major, preventable cause of behavioral and cognitive deficits in children. Despite extensive research, a unique neurobehavioral profile for children affected by prenatal alcohol exposure remains elusive. A fundamental question that must be addressed is how genetic and environmental factors interact with gestational alcohol exposure to produce neurobehavioral and neurobiological deficits in children. The core objectives of the NeuroDevNet team in fetal alcohol spectrum disorders is to create an integrated research program of basic and clinical investigations that will (1) identify genetic and epigenetic modifications that may be predictive of the neurobehavioral and neurobiological dysfunctions in offspring induced by gestational alcohol exposure and (2) determine the relationship between structural alterations in the brain induced by gestational alcohol exposure and functional outcomes in offspring. The overarching hypothesis to be tested is that neurobehavioral and neurobiological dysfunctions induced by gestational alcohol exposure are correlated with the genetic background of the affected child and/or epigenetic modifications in gene expression. The identification of genetic and/or epigenetic markers that are predictive of the severity of behavioral and cognitive deficits in children affected by gestational alcohol exposure will have a profound impact on our ability to identify children at risk. PMID:21575841

Alcohol in the city: wherever and whenever.

PubMed

Sureda, Xisca; Carreño, Víctor; Espelt, Albert; Villalbí, Joan R; Pearce, Jamie; Franco, Manuel

Alcohol urban environment has been associated with individual alcohol behaviors. We are constantly exposed to a wide variety of alcohol products, its marketing and promotion and signs of alcohol consumption that may influence alcohol-drinking behaviors. In this photo-essay, we include photographs that visually explain the exposure to alcohol in the urban streetscape of Madrid. These photographs show the pervasiveness of alcohol products in this city, which can be found everywhere at any time. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Youth exposure to alcohol advertising on radio--United States, June-August 2004.

PubMed

2006-09-01

In the United States, more underage youth drink alcohol than smoke tobacco or use illicit drugs. Excessive alcohol consumption leads to many adverse health and social consequences and results in approximately 4,500 deaths among underage youth each year. Recent studies have emphasized the contribution of alcohol marketing to underage drinking and have demonstrated that a substantial proportion of alcohol advertising appears in media for which the audience composition is youth-oriented (i.e., composed disproportionately of persons aged 12-20 years). To determine the proportion of radio advertisements that occurred on radio programs with audiences composed disproportionately of underage youth and the proportion of total youth exposure to alcohol advertising that occurs as a result of such advertising, researchers at the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth (Health Policy Institute, Georgetown University, District of Columbia) evaluated the placement of individual radio advertisements for the most advertised U.S. alcohol brands and the composition of audiences in the largest 104 markets in the United States. This report summarizes the results of that study, which indicate that alcohol advertising is common on radio programs which have disproportionately large youth audiences and that this advertising accounts for a substantial proportion of all alcohol radio advertising heard by underage youth. These results further indicate that 1) the current voluntary standards limiting alcohol marketing to youth should be enforced and ultimately strengthened, and 2) ongoing monitoring of youth exposure to alcohol advertising should continue.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

Alcohol and labor supply: the case of Iceland.

PubMed

Asgeirsdottir, Tinna Laufey; McGeary, Kerry Anne

2009-10-01

At a time when the government of Iceland is considering privatization of alcohol sales and a reduction of its governmental fees, it is timely to estimate the potential effects of this policy change. Given that the privatization of sales coupled with a tax reduction should lead to a decrease in the unit price of alcohol, one would expect the quantity consumed to increase. While it is of interest to project the impact of the proposed bill on the market for alcohol, another important consideration is the impact that increased alcohol consumption and, more specifically, probable alcohol misuse would have on other markets in Iceland. The only available study on this subject using Icelandic data yields surprising results. Tómasson et al. (Scand J Public Health 32:47-52, 2004) unexpectedly found no effect of probable alcohol abuse on sick leave. A logical next step would be to examine the effect of probable alcohol abuse on other important labor-market outcomes. Nationally representative survey data from 2002 allow for an analysis of probable misuse of alcohol and labor-supply choices. Labor-supply choices are considered with reference to possible effects of policies already in force, as well as proposed changes to current policies. Contrary to intuition, but in agreement with the previously mentioned Icelandic study, the adverse effects of probable misuse of alcohol on employment status or hours worked are not confirmed within this sample. The reasons for the results are unclear, although some suggestions are hypothesized. Currently, data to test those theories convincingly are not available.

Media alcohol advertising with drinking behaviors among young adolescents in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Chuan-Yu; Huang, Hsueh-Yu; Tseng, Fang-Yi; Chiu, Yu-Chan; Chen, Wei J

2017-08-01

To investigate potential effects of alcohol ads in six major marketing channels on drinking behaviors among young adolescents in Taiwan. The data were derived from the Alcohol-Related Experiences among Children study. The baseline sample was comprised of 1926 seventh-eighth graders from 11 public middle schools in Taipei in 2010; follow-up was conducted one year later (follow-up rate=97%). Information concerning individual sociodemographics, family characteristics, exposure to media portrayals of drinking and alcohol ads on major marketing channels, and drinking experience was collected through web-based self-administered questionnaires. Complex survey analyses were used to evaluate the association estimates, with stratification by prior drinking experiences in childhood. Television, in-store displays, and websites are the three most common marketing channels for young adolescents to report past-month alcohol advertising exposure. With statistical adjustment for potential confounders and six market channels, exposure to alcohol ads on television was associated with subsequent increased drinking initiation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.62; 95% CI=1.14-6.02). For those who have initiated alcohol use in childhood, the exposure to ads on the web (aOR=1.50; 95% CI=1.04-2.15) and radio (aOR=2.58; 95% CI=1.60-4.15) may elevate subsequent risk of occasional drinking. Exposure to media drinking portrayals was not related to subsequent drinking behaviors in this sample. Our results demonstrated that the effects of alcohol advertising on drinking behaviors in early adolescence may differ by marketing channels. Preventive strategies targeting underage drinking should consider restraining marketing channels (e.g., websites and radio) from certain advertising content and placement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developmental Relations between Alcohol Expectancies and Social Norms in Predicting Alcohol Onset

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

2018-01-01

Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent…

Pharmacologically induced alcohol craving in treatment seeking alcoholics correlates with alcoholism severity, but is insensitive to acamprosate

PubMed Central

Umhau, John C; Schwandt, Melanie L; Usala, Julie; Geyer, Christopher; Singley, Erick; George, David T; Heilig, Markus

2011-01-01

Modulation of alcohol craving induced by challenge stimuli may predict the efficacy of new pharmacotherapies for alcoholism. We evaluated two pharmacological challenges, the α2-adrenergic antagonist yohimbine, which reinstates alcohol seeking in rats, and the serotonergic compound meta-chlorophenylpiperazine (mCPP), previously reported to increase alcohol craving in alcoholics. To assess the predictive validity of this approach, the approved alcoholism medication acamprosate was evaluated for its ability to modulate challenge-induced cravings. A total of 35 treatment seeking alcohol dependent inpatients in early abstinence were randomized to placebo or acamprosate (2997 mg daily). Following two weeks of medication, subjects underwent three challenge sessions with yohimbine, mCPP or saline infusion under double blind conditions, carried out in counterbalanced order, and separated by at least 5 days. Ratings of cravings and anxiety, as well as biochemical measures were obtained. In all, 25 subjects completed all three sessions and were included in the analysis. Cravings were modestly, but significantly higher following both yohimbine and mCPP challenge compared with saline infusion. The mCPP, but not yohimbine significantly increased anxiety ratings. Both challenges produced robust ACTH, cortisol and prolactin responses. There was a significant correlation between craving and the degree of alcoholism severity. Acamprosate administration did not influence craving. Both yohimbine and mCPP challenges lead to elevated alcohol craving in a clinical population of alcoholics, and these cravings correlate with alcoholism severity. Under the experimental conditions used, alcohol cravings induced by these two stimuli are not sensitive to acamprosate at clinically used doses. PMID:21289601

The Demographics of Alcohol Use among Young Americans: Results from the 1983 National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crowley, Joan E.

This document gives results of research on alcohol use by young Americans from the 1983 National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth, a survey of a large, nationally representative sample supplemented by samples of blacks, Hispanics, and economically disadvantaged non-black, non-Hispanic youth and covering the entire range of…

The emerging marijuana retail environment: Key lessons learned from tobacco and alcohol retail research.

PubMed

Berg, Carla J; Henriksen, Lisa; Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Haardoerfer, Regine; Freisthler, Bridget

2018-06-01

The emerging retail market for recreational marijuana use warrants research and surveillance as such markets are established in more US states. This research can be informed by the existing literature regarding tobacco and alcohol, which highlights the impact of spatial access to tobacco and alcohol retailers and exposure to tobacco and alcohol marketing on smoking and drinking among youth and young adults. Prior research indicates that tobacco and alcohol retailers, as well as medical marijuana dispensaries, are disproportionately located in neighborhoods characterized by socioeconomic disadvantage and by higher proportions of racial/ethnic minorities and young adults. Moreover, retail marketing or point-of-sale practices may differentially target subpopulations and differ by neighborhood demography and local policy. This literature and the methods employed for studying the tobacco and alcohol market could inform research on the retail environment for marijuana, as current gaps exist. In particular, much of the existing literature involves cross-sectional research designs; longitudinal studies are needed. Moreover, standardized measures are needed for systematic monitoring of industry marketing practices and to conduct research examining neighborhood differences in exposure to retail marketing for marijuana and its contribution to use modality and frequency, alone and in combination with nicotine and alcohol. The use of standardized measures for tobacco and alcohol marketing have been critical to develop an evidence base from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies that document the impact of retail marketing on substance use by adolescents and adults. Similar research is needed to establish an evidence base to inform federal, state, and local regulations of marijuana. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol-Specific Parenting as a Mechanism of Parental Drinking and Alcohol Use Disorder Risk on Adolescent Alcohol Use Onset

PubMed Central

Handley, Elizabeth D.; Chassin, Laurie

2013-01-01

Objective: The primary aim of the current study was to examine three dimensions of alcohol-specific parenting (anti-alcohol parenting strategies, parental legitimacy in regulating adolescent drinking, and parental disclosure of negative alcohol experiences) as mechanisms in the prospective relations between parental drinking and alcohol use disorder (recovered, current, and never diagnosed) and adolescent alcohol use initiation. Method: Participants were from an ongoing longitudinal study of the intergenerational transmission of alcoholism. Structural equation modeling was used to test a maternal model (n = 268 adolescents and their mothers) and a paternal model (n = 204 adolescents and their fathers) of alcohol-specific parenting. Results: Results indicated that higher levels of drinking among mothers and current alcohol use disorder among fathers were related to more frequent parental disclosure of personal negative experiences with alcohol. Maternal disclosure of negative alcohol experiences mediated the effect of maternal drinking on adolescent onset of alcohol use such that more disclosure predicted a greater likelihood of adolescent drinking initiation at follow-up over and above general parenting. In addition, currently alcoholic mothers were perceived as having less legitimate authority to regulate adolescent drinking, and low levels of legitimacy among fathers was predictive of drinking onset among adolescents. Conclusions: Alcohol-specific parenting is a distinct and influential predictor of adolescent alcohol use initiation that is partially shaped by parents’ own drinking experiences. Moreover, parental conversations about their own personal experiences with alcohol may not represent a form of parent–child communication about drinking that deters adolescent drinking. PMID:23948527

Alcohol Advertising on Social Media: Examining the Content of Popular Alcohol Brands on Instagram.

PubMed

Barry, Adam E; Padon, Alisa A; Whiteman, Shawn D; Hicks, Kristen K; Carreon, Amie K; Crowell, Jarrett R; Willingham, Kristen L; Merianos, Ashley L

2018-06-11

There is considerable evidence that exposure to alcohol marketing increases the likelihood of adolescents initiating and engaging in alcohol consumption. There is a paucity of research, however, specifically examining industry generated alcohol marketing occurring on social media/networking platforms. The purpose of this investigation was to analyze the content of promotional advertisements by alcohol brands on Instagram. For a 30-day period, Instagram profiles of 15 distinct alcohol brands were examined. Pictorial posts/updates from each profile were screen captured and individually documented. Approximately 184 distinct posts constituted our final sample. The Content Appealing to Youth Index was independently employed by two raters to assess each post. For each characteristic, Cohen's Kappa measures, and associated 95% confidence intervals, were calculated. Descriptive statistics were performed. Posts increased throughout the week and peaked on Thursday and Friday. The production value of the posts examined was generally high, frequently featuring color, texture, shine, contrast, faces, and action. Character appeals and use of youth-oriented genres were uncommon. Many of the posts used product appeals and physical benefits to consumption. The posts also emphasized the following rewarding appeal characteristics: positive emotional experiences, achievement, individuality, and camaraderie. The most commonly coded risk-related feature was inappropriate use. Conclusions/Importance: This investigation represents an initial attempt to provide insights into the content alcohol brands are including in their promotional materials on social networking sites.

The party effect: Prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content

PubMed Central

Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D.

2016-01-01

Aims To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Design Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. Setting All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. Participants A sample of 2541 respondents with a mean age of 18.1 years (51.6% female) of which 1053 (41%) never had a whole drink of alcohol and 1727 (67%) never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion. Measurements Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all ads as “party” or “non-party” ads. Sociodemographics, sensation seeking, alcohol expectancies, and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Findings Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, about half (M = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were “party” ads. If both types of exposures (“party” and “non-party”) were included in the regression model, only “party” exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset (AOR=19.17; 95%CI 3.72–98.79) and binge drinking onset (AOR=3.87; 95%CI 1.07–13.99) after covariate control. Conclusions Adolescents and young adults with higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme had higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset, even after control of exposure to other types of alcohol advertisements. PMID:27343140

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) response to alcohol pictures predicts subsequent transition to heavy drinking in college students.

PubMed

Dager, Alecia D; Anderson, Beth M; Rosen, Rivkah; Khadka, Sabin; Sawyer, Broderick; Jiantonio-Kelly, Rachel E; Austad, Carol S; Raskin, Sarah A; Tennen, Howard; Wood, Rebecca M; Fallahi, Carolyn R; Pearlson, Godfrey D

2014-04-01

Young adults show the highest rates of escalating drinking, yet the neural risk mechanisms remain unclear. Heavy drinkers show variant functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response to alcohol cues, which may presage increasing drinking. In this longitudinal study, we ascertained whether BOLD response to alcohol pictures predicted subsequent heavy drinking among college students. Participants were 43 18-21-year-olds in the United States who underwent BOLD scanning and completed monthly substance use surveys over the following year. Participants were categorized according to baseline and follow-up drinking into 13 continuously moderate drinkers, 16 continuously heavy drinkers and 14 transitioners who drank moderately at baseline but heavily by follow-up. During fMRI scanning at baseline, participants viewed alcohol and matched non-alcohol beverage images. We observed group differences in alcohol cue-elicited BOLD response in bilateral caudate, orbitofrontal cortex, medial frontal cortex/anterior cingulate and left insula (clusters > 2619 ml, voxelwise F(2,40)  > 3.23, P < 0.05, whole-brain corrected P < 0.05), where transitioners hyperactivated compared with moderate and heavy drinkers (all Tukey P < 0.05). Exploratory factor analysis revealed a single brain network differentiating those who subsequently increased drinking. Exploratory regressions showed that, compared with other risk factors (e.g., alcoholism family history, impulsivity), BOLD response best predicted escalating drinking amount and alcohol-related problems. Neural response to pictures of alcohol is substantially enhanced among United States college students who subsequently escalate drinking. Greater cue-reactivity is associated with larger increases in drinking and alcohol-related problems, regardless of other baseline factors. Thus, neural cue-reactivity could uniquely facilitate identifying individuals at greatest risk for future

A randomized trial of three marketing strategies to disseminate a screening and brief alcohol intervention programme to general practitioners.

PubMed

Lock, C A; Kaner, E F; Heather, N; McAvoy, B R; Gilvarry, E

1999-09-01

Research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. A dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different marketing strategies for the dissemination of a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). Seven hundred and twenty-nine GPs, one per practice, from the former Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority were randomly assigned to one of three marketing strategies: postal marketing (mailing a promotional brochure to GPs), telemarketing (following a script to market the programme over the telephone), and personal marketing (following the same script during face-to-face marketing at GPs' practices). GPs who took up the programme were asked if they would agree to use it. Outcome measures included the proportions of GPs who took up the programme and agreement to use it. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, 321 (52%) took the programme. There was a significant difference in the proportions of GPs from the three marketing strategies who took the programme (82% telemarketing, 68% personal marketing, and 22% postal marketing). Of the 315 GPs who took the programme and were eligible to use it, 128 (41%) agreed to use the programme for three months. GPs in the postal marketing group were more likely to agree to use the programme (55% postal marketing, 44% personal marketing, and 34% telemarketing). Personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination strategy; however, economic analysis revealed that telemarketing was the most cost-effective strategy. Costs for dissemination per GP were: 13 Pounds telemarketing, 15 Pounds postal marketing, and 88 Pounds personal marketing. Telemarketing appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for dissemination of SBI to GPs.

Network of listed companies based on common shareholders and the prediction of market volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jie; Ren, Da; Feng, Xu; Zhang, Yongjie

2016-11-01

In this paper, we build a network of listed companies in the Chinese stock market based on common shareholding data from 2003 to 2013. We analyze the evolution of topological characteristics of the network (e.g., average degree, diameter, average path length and clustering coefficient) with respect to the time sequence. Additionally, we consider the economic implications of topological characteristic changes on market volatility and use them to make future predictions. Our study finds that the network diameter significantly predicts volatility. After adding control variables used in traditional financial studies (volume, turnover and previous volatility), network topology still significantly influences volatility and improves the predictive ability of the model.

Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions.

PubMed

Kelly, Peter J; Leung, Joanne; Deane, Frank P; Lyons, Geoffrey C B

2016-11-01

Despite clinical recommendations that further treatment is critical for successful recovery following drug and alcohol detoxification, a large proportion of clients fail to attend treatment after detoxification. In this study, individual factors and constructs based on motivational and volitional models of health behaviour were examined as predictors of post-detoxification treatment attendance. The sample consisted of 220 substance-dependent individuals participating in short-term detoxification programs provided by The Australian Salvation Army. The Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions were used to predict attendance at subsequent treatment. Follow-up data were collected for 177 participants (81%), with 104 (80%) of those participants reporting that they had either attended further formal treatment (e.g. residential rehabilitation programs, outpatient counselling) or mutual support groups in the 2 weeks after leaving the detoxification program. Logistic regression examined the predictors of further treatment attendance. The full model accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment attendance, with attitude and Implementation Intentions contributing significantly to the prediction. Findings from the present study would suggest that assisting clients to develop a specific treatment plan, as well as helping clients to build positive perceptions about subsequent treatment, will promote greater attendance at further treatment following detoxification. [Kelly PJ, Leung J, Deane FP, Lyons GCB. Predicting client attendance at further treatment following drug and alcohol detoxification: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Implementation Intentions. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:678-685]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Use of marketing to disseminate brief alcohol intervention to general practitioners: promoting health care interventions to health promoters.

PubMed

Lock, C A; Kaner, E F

2000-11-01

Health research findings are of little benefit to patients or society if they do not reach the audience they are intended to influence. Thus, a dissemination strategy is needed to target new findings at its user group and encourage a process of consideration and adoption or rejection. Social marketing techniques can be utilized to aid successful dissemination of research findings and to speed the process by which new information reaches practice. Principles of social marketing include manipulating the marketing mix of product, price, place and promotion. This paper describes the development of a marketing approach and the outcomes from a trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of manipulating promotional strategies to disseminate actively a screening and brief alcohol intervention (SBI) programme to general practitioners (GPs). The promotional strategies consisted of postal marketing, telemarketing and personal marketing. The study took place in general practices across the Northern and Yorkshire Regional Health Authority. Of the 614 GPs eligible for the study, one per practice, 321 (52%) took the programme and of those available to use it for 3 months (315), 128 (41%) actively considered doing so, 73 (23%) actually went on to use it. Analysis of the specific impact of the three different promotional strategies revealed that while personal marketing was the most effective overall dissemination and implementation strategy, telemarketing was more cost-effective. The findings of our work show that using a marketing approach is promising for conveying research findings to GPs and in particular a focus on promotional strategies can facilitate high levels of uptake and consideration in this target group.

The party effect: prediction of future alcohol use based on exposure to specific alcohol advertising content.

PubMed

Morgenstern, Matthis; Li, Zhongze; Li, Zhigang; Sargent, James D

2017-01-01

To test whether exposure to party-related alcohol advertising is associated with drinking behavior in a national US sample of adolescents and young adults, independently of exposure to other alcohol advertising. Longitudinal telephone- and web-based surveys conducted in 2011 and 2013. All regions of the United States, participants selected via mixed-mode random-digit-dial landline and cellphone frames. A sample of 705 respondents who never had a whole drink of alcohol at baseline (mean age 16.9 years, 53.3% female) and a sample of 1036 who never had six or more drinks during one drinking occasion (mean age 17.4 years, 55.8% female). Outcome measures were onset of alcohol use and binge drinking during the study interval. Primary predictor was exposure to television alcohol advertising, operationalized as contact frequency and brand recall for 20 randomly selected alcohol advertisements. Independent post-hoc analyses classified all advertisements as 'party' or 'non-party' advertisements. Socio-demographics, sensation-seeking, alcohol expectancies and alcohol use of friends and family were assessed as covariates. Onset rates for having the first whole drink of alcohol and for first binge drinking were 49.2% and 29.5%, respectively. On average, approximately half (median = 10.2) of the 20 alcohol advertisements in each individual survey were 'party' advertisements. If both types of exposures ('party' and 'non-party') were included in the regression model, only 'party' exposure remained a significant predictor of alcohol use onset [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 19.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.72-98.79] and binge drinking onset (AOR = 3.87; 95% CI = 1.07-13.99) after covariate control. Adolescents and young adults in the United States appear to have higher rates of alcohol use and binge drinking onset if they have higher exposure to alcohol advertisements using a partying theme, independently of the amount of exposure to alcohol advertisements with non

Alcohol Industry Sponsorship of University Student Sports Clubs in Brazil.

PubMed

Pinsky, Ilana; Noto, Ana Regina; Botéquio de Moraes, Maria Carolina; Lucas Dos Santos, Elaine; Sparks, Robert; O'Brien, Kerry

2017-03-01

The university sport environment represents an important target for alcohol industry marketing. This study investigated the nature of relationships between the alcohol industry and university student sports clubs (USSCs). Semi-structured interviews were conducted with board members from 60 active USSCs in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Interviews were transcribed and subjected to content analysis using NVivo10. All invited USSCs participated in the study. Most (n = 53; 88%) reported having signed contracts with the alcohol industry (breweries, in every case) to have their sports events and parties sponsored. The most common sponsorship arrangement involved the supply of discounted beer for sport and student events. T-shirts, beer freezers, and stereo systems were also frequently provided by the alcohol industry to support alcohol-related sports events. In addition, the alcohol industry event promoters helped market the events and products. In return, the USSCs agreed to exclusively sell the sponsors' brand of beer and/or order and sell a quota of beer at their events. Forty-nine interviewees (81%) reported agreements with alcohol companies whereby open bars (free alcohol events) would also be provided. Despite reporting a range of alcohol harms, participants did not perceive there to be a high risk of harm from the alcohol sponsorship arrangements. Most USSCs in São Paulo, Brazil, have formalized contracts with the alcohol industry that promote the marketing, sale, and consumption of alcohol at parties and university games. A critical review of the impacts of these practices and university policies on alcohol industry sponsorship that can take account of the role of such arrangements in student drinking is warranted.

Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending

PubMed Central

Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

2015-01-01

Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample’s own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience’s potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior. PMID:26187248

Defective monocyte oxidative burst predicts infection in alcoholic hepatitis and is associated with reduced expression of NADPH oxidase.

PubMed

Vergis, Nikhil; Khamri, Wafa; Beale, Kylie; Sadiq, Fouzia; Aletrari, Mina O; Moore, Celia; Atkinson, Stephen R; Bernsmeier, Christine; Possamai, Lucia A; Petts, Gemma; Ryan, Jennifer M; Abeles, Robin D; James, Sarah; Foxton, Matthew; Hogan, Brian; Foster, Graham R; O'Brien, Alastair J; Ma, Yun; Shawcross, Debbie L; Wendon, Julia A; Antoniades, Charalambos G; Thursz, Mark R

2017-03-01

In order to explain the increased susceptibility to serious infection in alcoholic hepatitis, we evaluated monocyte phagocytosis, aberrations of associated signalling pathways and their reversibility, and whether phagocytic defects could predict subsequent infection. Monocytes were identified from blood samples of 42 patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis using monoclonal antibody to CD14. Phagocytosis and monocyte oxidative burst (MOB) were measured ex vivo using flow cytometry, luminometry and bacterial killing assays. Defects were related to the subsequent development of infection. Intracellular signalling pathways were investigated using western blotting and PCR. Interferon-γ (IFN-γ) was evaluated for its therapeutic potential in reversing phagocytic defects. Paired longitudinal samples were used to evaluate the effect of in vivo prednisolone therapy. MOB, production of superoxide and bacterial killing in response to Escherichia coli were markedly impaired in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Pretreatment MOB predicted development of infection within two weeks with sensitivity and specificity that were superior to available clinical markers. Accordingly, defective MOB was associated with death at 28 and 90 days. Expression of the gp91 phox subunit of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase was reduced in patients with alcoholic hepatitis demonstrating defective MOB. Monocytes were refractory to IFN-γ stimulation and showed high levels of a negative regulator of cytokine signalling, suppressor of cytokine signalling-1. MOB was unaffected by 7 days in vivo prednisolone therapy. Monocyte oxidative burst and bacterial killing is impaired in alcoholic hepatitis while bacterial uptake by phagocytosis is preserved. Defective MOB is associated with reduced expression of NADPH oxidase in these patients and predicts the development of infection and death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already

Post-treatment Stage of Change Predicts 12-month Outcome of Treatment for Alcohol Problems

PubMed Central

Heather, Nick; McCambridge, Jim

2013-01-01

Aims: To evaluate relationships between clients' self-reported ‘stage of change’ and outcomes after treatment for alcohol problems. Methods: Using data from the ‘United Kingdom Alcohol Treatment Trial’, clients who had received at least one session of treatment and who had complete data (n = 392) entered the analysis. Two continuous measures of drinking behaviour (% days abstinent (PDA) and drinks per drinking day (DDD)) and categorical outcomes at the 12-month follow-up were compared between clients in Pre-action and Action stages of change at either pre- or post-treatment assessment. Multiple and logistic regression analyses examined the relationships between stage of change and treatment outcomes, evaluating the strength of these relationships by controlling for likely confounders. Results: Pre-treatment stage of change did not predict outcome but post-treatment stage of change predicted PDA and DDD at the 12-month follow-up. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, clients in Action at post-treatment were two to three times more likely to show a favourable categorical outcome, variously defined, than those in Pre-action. There were no differences between clients who had received Motivational Enhancement Therapy and those who had received Social Behaviour and Network Therapy in proportions maintaining or moving towards Action from before to after treatment. Conclusions: These findings confirm previous reports that motivational variables predict outcome of treatment but add that such a relationship is seen for post-treatment stage of change. For therapists, it would seem important to monitor the client's stage of change—which in good clinical practice often occurs in informal ways—and have strategies to deal with low motivation to change whenever it occurs throughout treatment. The findings are also consistent with a ‘common factors’ perspective on effective treatment for alcohol problems. PMID:23408241

DFT-based prediction of reactivity of short-chain alcohol dehydrogenase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stawoska, I.; Dudzik, A.; Wasylewski, M.; Jemioła-Rzemińska, M.; Skoczowski, A.; Strzałka, K.; Szaleniec, M.

2017-06-01

The reaction mechanism of ketone reduction by short chain dehydrogenase/reductase, ( S)-1-phenylethanol dehydrogenase from Aromatoleum aromaticum, was studied with DFT methods using cluster model approach. The characteristics of the hydride transfer process were investigated based on reaction of acetophenone and its eight structural analogues. The results confirmed previously suggested concomitant transfer of hydride from NADH to carbonyl C atom of the substrate with proton transfer from Tyr to carbonyl O atom. However, additional coupled motion of the next proton in the proton-relay system, between O2' ribose hydroxyl and Tyr154 was observed. The protonation of Lys158 seems not to affect the pKa of Tyr154, as the stable tyrosyl anion was observed only for a neutral Lys158 in the high pH model. The calculated reaction energies and reaction barriers were calibrated by calorimetric and kinetic methods. This allowed an excellent prediction of the reaction enthalpies (R2 = 0.93) and a good prediction of the reaction kinetics (R2 = 0.89). The observed relations were validated in prediction of log K eq obtained for real whole-cell reactor systems that modelled industrial synthesis of S-alcohols.

How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P

2016-06-01

This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = -.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = -.05 and -.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude-intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude-intention and SE-intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Cooke, Richard; Dahdah, Mary; Norman, Paul; French, David P.