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Sample records for algal population dynamics

  1. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. PMID:26625979

  2. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Kulacki, Konrad J.; Cardinale, Bradley J.

    2012-01-01

    To make predictions about the possible effects of nanomaterials across environments and taxa, toxicity testing must incorporate not only a variety of organisms and endpoints, but also an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie nanoparticle toxicity. Here, we report the results of a laboratory experiment in which we examined how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across a range of freshwater algae. We exposed 10 of the most common species of North American freshwater pelagic algae (phytoplankton) to five increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 (ranging from controls to 300 mg n-TiO2 L−1). We then examined the effects of n-TiO2 on the population growth rates and biomass production of each algal species over a period of 25 days. On average, increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 had no significant effects on algal growth rates (p = 0.376), even though there was considerable species-specific variation in responses. In contrast, exposure to n-TiO2 tended to increase maximum biomass achieved by species in culture (p = 0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles could influence certain aspects of population growth of freshwater phytoplankton, though effects are unlikely at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:23071735

  3. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    PubMed Central

    Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

    2008-01-01

    Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

  4. Population dynamics of an algal bacterial cenosis in closed ecological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisman, T. I.; Galayda, Ya. V.; Loginova, N. S.

    The paper deals with microalgae-bacteria interrelationships in the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle. Explanations of why and how algal-bacterial ecosystems are formed still remain controversial. The paper presents results of experimental and theoretical investigations of the functioning of the algal-bacterial cenosis (the microalga Chlorella vulgaris and concomitant microflora). The Chlorella microbial community is dominated by representatives of the genus Pseudomonas. Experiments with non-sterile batch cultures of Chlorella on Tamiya medium showed that the biomass of microorganisms increases simultaneously with the increase in microalgal biomass. The microflora of Chlorella can grow on organic substances released by photosynthesizing Chlorella. Microorganisms can also use dying Chlorella cells, i.e. form a "producer-reducer" biocycle. To get a better insight into the cenosis-forming role of microalgae, a mathematical model of the "autotroph-heterotroph" aquatic biotic cycle has been constructed, taking into account the utilization of Chlorella photosynthates and dead cells by microorganisms and the contribution of the components to the nitrogen cycle. A theoretical study showed that the biomass of concomitant bacteria grown on glucose and detritus is larger than the biomass of bacteria utilizing only microalgal photosynthates, which agrees well with the experimental data.

  5. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FUNGA, NEMATODE, BACTERIA AND ALGAL POPULATION IN A SOIL OF MAZON REGION OF PERU

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil microbes are mainly responsible for litter decomposition and nutrient cycling in the forest ecosystems. Population dynamics of soil microbes (fungus, bacteria, nematodes, algae) under secondary forest in tropical region is not well understood. An experiment was implemented at Tropical Crop Rese...

  6. Effects of four rice paddy herbicides on algal cell viability and the relationship with population recovery.

    PubMed

    Nagai, Takashi; Ishihara, Satoru; Yokoyama, Atsushi; Iwafune, Takashi

    2011-08-01

    Paddy herbicides are a high-risk concern for aquatic plants, including algae, because they easily flow out from paddy fields into rivers, with toxic effects. The effect on algal population dynamics, including population recovery after timed exposure, must be assessed. Therefore, we demonstrated concentration-response relationships of four paddy herbicides for algal growth inhibition and mortality, and the relationship between the effect on algal cell viability and population recovery following exposure. We used SYTOX Green dye assay and flow cytometry to assess cell viability of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. Live cells could be clearly distinguished from dead cells during herbicide exposure. Our results showed that pretilachlor and quinoclamine had both algicidal and algistatic effects, whereas bensulfuron-methyl only had an algistatic effect, and pentoxazone only had an algicidal effect. Then, a population recovery test following a 72-h exposure was conducted. The algal population recovered in all tests, but the periods required for recovery differed among exposure concentrations and herbicides. The periods required for recovery were inconsistent with the dead cell ratio at the beginning of the recovery test; that is, population recovery could not be described only by cell viability. Consequently, the temporal effect of herbicides and subsequent recovery of the algal population could be described not only by the toxicity characteristics but also by toxicokinetics, such as rate of uptake, transport to the target site, and elimination of the substance from algal cells. PMID:21590715

  7. The use of turbidostat culture in investigation of algal heavy-metal toxicity and rotifer population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, W.N.

    1989-01-01

    Using the green alga Chlorella pyrenoidosa Chick, the heavy metals selenium as selenate, cadmium, cadmium + manganese and cadmium + zinc were investigated to assess their toxicity in terms of changes in {mu}{sub max}. It was shown that increases of sublethal concentrations of Se produced a near linear decrease in {mu}{sub max}. A {mu}{sub max}IC{sub 50} was calculated to be 10.1 {mu}M Se. A concentration of 1.8 {mu}M Cd produced a 62% decrease in {mu}{sub max} after 2 generating lag. A recovery of {mu}{sub max} was observed when MnCl{sub 2} or ZnCl{sub 2} was added to the medium in which populations were experiencing sublethal Cd toxicity. The amelioration responses were incomplete with regard to full recovery of {mu}{sub max} and last 20 generations for the Cd-Mn exposure and 7 generations for the Cd-Zn exposure. Measurement of {mu}{sub max} is turbidostat culture was shown to provide a very sensitive measure of toxicity. For the first time, a metazoan, the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus Pallas, was grown in turbidostat culture and maintained near its {mu}{sub max} for many generations. It was discovered that {mu}{sub max} was subject to selection in this species and increased 51% from 0.053 h{sup {minus}1} to 0.080 h{sup {minus}1} over 8 mo at 25{degree}C.

  8. Combined effects of algal (Chlorella vulgaris) density and ammonia concentration on the population dynamics of Ceriodaphnia dubia and Moina macrocopa (Cladocera).

    PubMed

    Mangas-Ramírez, Ernesto; Sarma, S S S; Nandini, S

    2002-03-01

    Ammonia is a natural variable in ponds and lakes. Although an important source of nitrogen for microalgae, at high concentrations ammonia can affect the density and diversity of cladocerans. Using the cladocerans Ceriodaphnia dubia, and Moina macrocopa, the effect of nominal concentrations of ammonium chloride under acute and chronic exposures at different levels of algal food was tested. Regardless of food level, C. dubia was more sensitive than M. macrocopa to ammonia. In the absence of food, the median lethal concentration of ammonia (LC(50) 24 h) for C. dubia was (112 mg L(-1)) less than half that of M. macrocopa (232 mg L(-1)). When algal food (0.5 x 10(6) and 1.5 x 10(6) cells ml(-1) of Chlorella) was used, the LC(50) values were much higher for both cladoceran species. Based on the population growth studies, it was found that in controls of M. macrocopa an increase in the availability of Chlorella from 0.5 to 1.5 x 10(6) cells mL(-1) led to an increase in the maximum density from 4.7 +/- 0.2 to 16.4 +/- 1.2 ind.mL(-1), while in C. dubia the peak population density decreased from 7.9 +/- 0.6 to 5.0 +/- l.0 ind.mL(-1). An increase in ammonia concentration (10 to 40 mg L(-1) for C. dubia and 20 to 120 mg L(-1) for M. macrocopa) resulted in a corresponding decrease in peak population densities of the tested cladocerans. The rate of population increase (r) values for M. macrocopa in the controls ranged from 0.21 +/- 0.001 and 0.25 +/- 0.02 at 0.5 and 1.5 x 10(6) cells mL(-1) of Chlorella, respectively. The corresponding values of C. dubia in controls were 0.21 +/- 0.004 and 0.18 +/- 0.01. At 0.5 x 10(6) cells mL(-1) of algal food, the r values became negative under 40 and 120 mg L(-1) of ammonia for C. dubia and M. macrocopa, respectively. The role of algal food in ammonia toxicity to cladocerans was discussed. (c) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). PMID:11971644

  9. Algal populations controlled by fish herbivory across a wave exposure gradient on southern temperate shores.

    PubMed

    Taylor, David I; Schiel, David R

    2010-01-01

    Consumers that forage across habitats can affect communities by altering the abundance and distribution of key species. In marine communities, studies of trophic interactions have generally focused on the effects of herbivorous and predatory invertebrates on benthic algae and mussel populations. However, large mobile consumers that move across habitats, such as fishes, can strongly affect community dynamics through consumption of habitat-dominating species, but their effects often vary over environmental gradients. On temperate rocky shores, herbivorous fishes are generally a small part of the fish fauna compared to the tropics, and there is sparse evidence that they play a major direct role in algal community dynamics, particularly of large brown algae that dominate many reefs. In New Zealand, however, a wide-ranging herbivorous fish, Odax pullus, feeds exclusively on macroalgae, including Durvillaea antarctica, a large low-intertidal fucoid reaching 10 m in length and 70 kg in mass. In four experiments we tested the extent of fish herbivory and how it was affected by algal canopy structure across a gradient of wave exposure at multiple sites. Exclusion experiments showed that fish impacts greatly reduced the cover and biomass of Durvillaea and that these effects decreased with increasing wave stress and algal canopy cover, effectively restricting the alga to exposed conditions. Almost all plants were entirely removed by fish where there was a sparse algal canopy in sheltered and semi-exposed sites, but there was significantly less grazing in exposed sites. Recruit Durvillaea beneath canopies were less affected by fish grazing, but they grew slowly. Successful natural recruitment, therefore, occurred almost exclusively on exposed shores outside canopies where many plants escaped severe grazing, and growth to maturity was far greater than elsewhere. Such large and direct impacts on the local and regional distribution of large brown algal populations by mobile

  10. Disturbance frequency influences patch dynamics in stream benthic algal communities.

    PubMed

    Ledger, Mark E; Harris, Rebecca M L; Armitage, Patrick D; Milner, Alexander M

    2008-04-01

    Disturbance is integral to the organisation of riverine ecosystems. Fluctuating low flows caused by supra-seasonal drought and water management periodically dewater habitat patches, potentially creating heterogeneity in the taxonomic composition and successional dynamics of benthic communities. The frequency of disturbance induced by low flows is contingent upon the topography of the river bed and thus varies among patches. We investigated whether the frequency of patch dewatering influenced the structure and temporal dynamics of benthic algal communities attached to the upper surfaces of stones in stream mesocosms (4 m2). In a 693-day disturbance experiment, we applied short dewatering disturbances (6 days) at high (33-day cycles) and low frequencies (99-day cycles) and compared algal assemblages with undisturbed controls at 21 endpoints. In the absence of disturbance, epilithic space was dominated by the green encrusting alga Gongrosira incrustans. However, drying disturbances consistently reduced the dominance of the green alga, and crust abundance decreased with increasing disturbance frequency, thereby opening space for a diversity of mat-forming diatoms. The response of mat diatoms to disturbance varied markedly during the experiment, from strong reductions in the abundance of loosely attached mats in mid-late 2000 to the exploitation of open space by closely adhering mats in 2001. Contrary responses were attributed to changes in the species composition of mat diatoms, which influenced the physiognomy and hence stress-resistance and resilience of the assemblage. Our results indicate that patchy dewatering of habitat patches during periods of low flow influences the successional dynamics of algae, thereby creating distinctive mosaics on the stream bed. PMID:18193289

  11. Excitation Energy-Transfer Dynamics of Brown Algal Photosynthetic Antennas.

    PubMed

    Kosumi, D; Kita, M; Fujii, R; Sugisaki, M; Oka, N; Takaesu, Y; Taira, T; Iha, M; Hashimoto, H

    2012-09-20

    Fucoxanthin-chlorophyll-a/c protein (FCP) complexes from brown algae Cladosiphon okamuranus TOKIDA (Okinawa Mozuku in Japanese) contain the only species of carbonyl carotenoid, fucoxanthin, which exhibits spectral characteristics attributed to an intramolecular charge-transfer (ICT) property that arises in polar environments due to the presence of the carbonyl group in its polyene backbone. Here, we investigated the role of the ICT property of fucoxanthin in ultrafast energy transfer to chlorophyll-a/c in brown algal photosynthesis using femtosecond pump-probe spectroscopic measurements. The observed excited-state dynamics show that the ICT character of fucoxanthin in FCP extends its absorption band to longer wavelengths and enhances its electronic interaction with chlorophyll-a molecules, leading to efficient energy transfer from fucoxanthin to chlorophyll-a. PMID:26295888

  12. [Parametric control of the yield characteristics and species composition dynamics of algal poly-culture].

    PubMed

    Nefedova, E L; Levinskikh, M A; Sychev, V N

    2006-01-01

    There are several experimental models of biological life support systems (BLSS) designed to incorporate a chlorella pool. These BLSS can be optimized if populated by algal associations that could take up more functions within the closed cycling system than a single alga species. Introduction of a Spirulina and Chlamydomonas poly-culture with differing in gas exchange and biochemical composition resulted in a tighter closure of linkages within the system. The factors determining the size of a species population in intensive continuous poly-cultures are, first and foremost, pH and suspension flow rate. Experimental testing of this supposition brought us to the conclusion that parametric control of alga productivity and species composition dynamics makes it possible to create a steady intensive poly-culture as part of the LSS for humans. Flow rate and pH can be the parameters for control of the Spirulina and Chlamydomonas populations during continuous cultivation of this poly-culture. PMID:17357628

  13. Effect of Algal Inoculation on COD and Nitrogen Removal, and Indigenous Bacterial Dynamics in Municipal Wastewater.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jangho; Lee, Jaejin; Shukla, Sudheer Kumar; Park, Joonhong; Lee, Tae Kwon

    2016-05-28

    The effects of algal inoculation on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) removal, and indigenous bacterial dynamics were investigated in municipal wastewater. Experiments were conducted with municipal wastewater inoculated with either Chlorella vulgaris AG10032, Selenastrum gracile UTEX 325, or Scenedesmus quadricauda AG 10308. C. vulgaris and S. gracile as fast growing algae in municipal wastewater, performed high COD and TN removal in contrast to Sc. quadricauda. The indigenous bacterial dynamics revealed by 16S rRNA gene amplification showed different bacterial shifts in response to different algal inoculations. The dominant bacterial genera of either algal case were characterized as heterotrophic nitrifying bacteria. Our results suggest that selection of indigenous bacteria that symbiotically interact with algal species is important for better performance of wastewater treatment. PMID:26930350

  14. From benchtop to raceway : spectroscopic signatures of dynamic biological processes in algal communities.

    SciTech Connect

    Trahan, Christine Alexandra; Garcia, Omar Fidel; Martino, Anthony A.; Raymer, Michelle; Collins, Aaron M.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-08-01

    The search is on for new renewable energy and algal-derived biofuel is a critical piece in the multi-faceted renewable energy puzzle. It has 30x more oil than any terrestrial oilseed crop, ideal composition for biodiesel, no competition with food crops, can be grown in waste water, and is cleaner than petroleum based fuels. This project discusses these three goals: (1) Conduct fundamental research into the effects that dynamic biotic and abiotic stressors have on algal growth and lipid production - Genomics/Transcriptomics, Bioanalytical spectroscopy/Chemical imaging; (2) Discover spectral signatures for algal health at the benchtop and greenhouse scale - Remote sensing, Bioanalytical spectroscopy; and (3) Develop computational model for algal growth and productivity at the raceway scale - Computational modeling.

  15. Carbon conversion efficiency and population dynamics of a marine algae-bacteria consortium growing on simplified synthetic digestate: first step in a bioprocess coupling algal production and anaerobic digestion.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Christophe; Bougaran, Gaël; Garnier, Matthieu; Hamelin, Jérôme; Leboulanger, Christophe; Le Chevanton, Myriam; Mostajir, Behzad; Sialve, Bruno; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Fouilland, Eric

    2012-09-01

    Association of microalgae culture and anaerobic digestion seems a promising technology for sustainable algal biomass and biogas production. The use of digestates for sustaining the growth of microalgae reduces the costs and the environmental impacts associated with the substantial algal nutrient requirements. A natural marine algae-bacteria consortium was selected by growing on a medium containing macro nutrients (ammonia, phosphate and acetate) specific of a digestate, and was submitted to a factorial experimental design with different levels of temperature, light and pH. The microalgal consortium reached a maximum C conversion efficiency (i.e. ratio between carbon content produced and carbon supplied through light photosynthetic C conversion and acetate) of 3.6%. The presence of bacteria increased this maximum C conversion efficiency up to 6.3%. The associated bacterial community was considered beneficial to the total biomass production by recycling the carbon lost during photosynthesis and assimilating organic by-products from anaerobic digestion. PMID:22728186

  16. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs Using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Coleman, Andre M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Cafferty, Kara G.; Newby, Deborah T.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an important mechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio, which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduction of foreign energy supplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth, and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associated with algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which helps to address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments of multiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tier were sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algae biomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary significantly depending on location and biomass

  17. Assessment of Algal Farm Designs using a Dynamic Modular Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared M.; Stevens, Daniel M.; Ray, Allison E.; Newby, Deborah T.; Coleman, Andre M.; Cafferty, Kara G.

    2014-07-01

    The notion of renewable energy provides an importantmechanism for diversifying an energy portfolio,which ultimately would have numerous benefits including increased energy resilience, reduced reliance on foreign energysupplies, reduced GHG emissions, development of a green energy sector that contributes to economic growth,and providing a sustainable energy supply. The conversion of autotrophic algae to liquid transportation fuels is the basis of several decades of research to competitively bring energy-scale production into reality; however, many challenges still remain for making algal biofuels economically viable. Addressing current challenges associatedwith algal production systems, in part, requires the ability to assess spatial and temporal variability, rapidly evaluate alternative algal production system designs, and perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. We introduce the development and application of the Algae Logistics Model (ALM) which is tailored to help address these challenges. The flexible nature of the ALM architecture allows the model to: 1) interface with external biomass production and resource assessment models, as well as other relevant datasets including those with spatiotemporal granularity; 2) interchange design processes to enable operational and economic assessments ofmultiple design configurations, including the integration of current and new innovative technologies; and 3) conduct trade-off analysis to help understand the site-specific techno-economic trade-offs and inform technology decisions. This study uses the ALM to investigate a baseline open-pond production system determined by model harmonization efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Six sites in the U.S. southern-tierwere sub-selected and assessed using daily site-specific algaebiomass productivity data to determine the economic viability of large-scale open-pond systems. Results show that costs can vary

  18. Virophage control of antarctic algal host-virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yau, Sheree; Lauro, Federico M; DeMaere, Matthew Z; Brown, Mark V; Thomas, Torsten; Raftery, Mark J; Andrews-Pfannkoch, Cynthia; Lewis, Matthew; Hoffman, Jeffrey M; Gibson, John A; Cavicchioli, Ricardo

    2011-04-12

    Viruses are abundant ubiquitous members of microbial communities and in the marine environment affect population structure and nutrient cycling by infecting and lysing primary producers. Antarctic lakes are microbially dominated ecosystems supporting truncated food webs in which viruses exert a major influence on the microbial loop. Here we report the discovery of a virophage (relative of the recently described Sputnik virophage) that preys on phycodnaviruses that infect prasinophytes (phototrophic algae). By performing metaproteogenomic analysis on samples from Organic Lake, a hypersaline meromictic lake in Antarctica, complete virophage and near-complete phycodnavirus genomes were obtained. By introducing the virophage as an additional predator of a predator-prey dynamic model we determined that the virophage stimulates secondary production through the microbial loop by reducing overall mortality of the host and increasing the frequency of blooms during polar summer light periods. Virophages remained abundant in the lake 2 y later and were represented by populations with a high level of major capsid protein sequence variation (25-100% identity). Virophage signatures were also found in neighboring Ace Lake (in abundance) and in two tropical lakes (hypersaline and fresh), an estuary, and an ocean upwelling site. These findings indicate that virophages regulate host-virus interactions, influence overall carbon flux in Organic Lake, and play previously unrecognized roles in diverse aquatic ecosystems. PMID:21444812

  19. In Situ Oxygen Dynamics in Coral-Algal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Wangpraseurt, Daniel; Weber, Miriam; Røy, Hans; Polerecky, Lubos; de Beer, Dirk; Suharsono; Nugues, Maggy M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Coral reefs degrade globally at an alarming rate, with benthic algae often replacing corals. However, the extent to which benthic algae contribute to coral mortality, and the potential mechanisms involved, remain disputed. Recent laboratory studies suggested that algae kill corals by inducing hypoxia on the coral surface, through stimulated microbial respiration. Methods/Findings We examined the main premise of this hypothesis by measuring in situ oxygen microenvironments at the contact interface between the massive coral Porites spp. and turf algae, and between Porites spp. and crustose coralline algae (CCA). Oxygen levels at the interface were similar to healthy coral tissue and ranged between 300–400 µM during the day. At night, the interface was hypoxic (∼70 µM) in coral-turf interactions and close to anoxic (∼2 µM) in coral-CCA interactions, but these values were not significantly different from healthy tissue. The diffusive boundary layer (DBL) was about three times thicker at the interface than above healthy tissue, due to a depression in the local topography. A numerical model, developed to analyze the oxygen profiles above the irregular interface, revealed strongly reduced net photosynthesis and dark respiration rates at the coral-algal interface compared to unaffected tissue during the day and at night, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our results showed that hypoxia was not a consistent feature in the microenvironment of the coral-algal interface under in situ conditions. Therefore, hypoxia alone is unlikely to be the cause of coral mortality. Due to the modified topography, the interaction zone is distinguished by a thicker diffusive boundary layer, which limits the local metabolic activity and likely promotes accumulation of potentially harmful metabolic products (e.g., allelochemicals and protons). Our study highlights the importance of mass transfer phenomena and the need for direct in situ measurements of microenvironmental

  20. Dynamic mathematical model of high rate algal ponds (HRAP).

    PubMed

    Jupsin, H; Praet, E; Vasel, J L

    2003-01-01

    This article presents a mathematical model to describe High-Rate Algal Ponds (HRAPs). The hydrodynamic behavior of the reactor is described as completely mixed tanks in series with recirculation. The hydrodynamic pattern is combined with a subset of River Water Quality Model 1 (RWQM1), including the main processes in liquid phase. Our aim is to develop models for WSPs and aerated lagoons, too, but we focused on HRAPs first for several reasons: Sediments are usually less abundant in HRAP and can be neglected, Stratification is not observed and state variables are constant in a reactor cross section, Due to the system's geometry, the reactor is quite similar to a plugflow type reactor with recirculation, with a simple advection term. The model is based on mass balances and includes the following processes: *Phytoplankton growth with NO3-, NO2- and death, *Aerobic growth of heterotrophs with NO3-, NH4+ and respiration, *Anoxic growth of heterotrophs with NO3-, NO2- and anoxic respiration, *Growth of nitrifiers (two stages) and respiration. The differences with regard to RWQM1 are that we included a limiting term associated with inorganic carbon on the growth rate of algae and nitrifiers, gas transfers are taken into account by the familiar Adeney equation, and a subroutine calculates light intensity at the water surface. This article presents our first simulations. PMID:14510211

  1. Effects of algal concentration and initial density on the population growth of Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin (Crustacea, Cladocera)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan; Xie, Ningxia; Wang, Weiliang

    2009-09-01

    The effects of algal concentration and initial density on the population growth of the estuarine cladocera, Diaphanosoma celebensis Stingelin, were evaluated in an indoor experiment. A 2 × 4 layout that included two algal concentrations ( Chlorella pyrenoidosa, 1 × 106 and 3 × 106 cell/mL) and four inoculation densities (100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L) were established. Diaphanosoma celebensis were reared in 150 mL flasks containing 50 mL of algal medium at 22°C, under salinity of 10 and a photoperiod of 12 h L: 12 h D. The lag phase required to initiate continuous population growth following inoculation was shorter for D. celebensis fed 1 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 300 or 400 ind./L than that for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100 or 200 ind./L. However, D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100 or 200 ind./L exhibited longer periods of positive population growth. The maximum population densities were 5 875 ± 324, 6 690 ± 691, 7 735 ± 1,121 and 6 365 ± 691 ind./L for D. celebensis fed 1 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively, and 15 070 ± 379, 12 215 ± 648, 11 960 ± 2,551 and 16 130 ± 880 ind./L for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively. The average daily increasing rates of population were 0.076 ± 0.001, 0.065 ± 0.002, 0.055 ± 0.002 and 0.048 ± 0.003 for D. celebensis fed 1×106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively, and 0.098 ± 0.001, 0.078 ± 0.002, 0.072 ± 0.003 and 0.067 ± 0.003 for D. celebensis fed 3 × 106 cell/mL and inoculated at 100, 200, 300 and 400 ind./L, respectively. The maximum population density and average daily increasing rate of population increased as the algal concentration increased, whereas an increase in the inoculation density led to a linear decrease in the daily increasing rate of population under both algal concentrations. The results of the present

  2. Metal toxicity inferred from algal population density, heterotrophic substrate use, and fatty acid profile in a small stream

    SciTech Connect

    Genter, R.B.; Lehman, R.M.

    2000-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine relations between metal concentrations in periphyton and the abundance of algal species, heterotrophic use of 95 carbon sources, and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of the periphyton in a small stream spanning a mine in Lemhi County, Idaho, USA. Two upstream two mine, and two downstream sites were examined. Elevated concentrations of As and Cu at the mine sites were associated with communities that were depleted of diatoms and filamentous blue-green algae and characterized by a low-diversity community dominated by a single blue-green alga and patchy populations of the diatom Achnanthidium minutissimum and a filamentous green alga. Carbon source use and PLFA profiles provided a rapid assessment of stream conditions that were consistent with algal taxonomy and with the hypotheses constructed from previous reports on periphyton responses to metal stress.

  3. Differentiating the degradation dynamics of algal and terrestrial carbon within complex natural dissolved organic carbon in temperate lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemette, François; McCallister, S. Leigh; Giorgio, Paul A.

    2013-07-01

    It has often been hypothesized that the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool of algal origin in lakes is more bioavailable than its terrestrial counterpart, but this hypothesis has seldom been directly tested. Here we test this hypothesis by tracking the production and isotopic signature of bacterial respiratory CO2 in 2 week lake water incubations and use the resulting data to reconstruct and model the bacterial consumption dynamics of algal and terrestrial DOC. The proportion of algal DOC respired decreased systematically over time in all experiments, suggesting a rapid consumption and depletion of this substrate. Our results further show that the algal DOC pool was used in proportions and at rates twice and 10 times as high as the terrestrial DOC pool, respectively. On the other hand, the absolute amount of labile terrestrial DOC was on average four times higher than labile algal DOC, accounting for almost the entire long-term residual C metabolism, but also contributing to short-term bacterial C consumption. The absolute amount of labile algal DOC increased with chlorophyll a concentrations, whereas total phosphorus appeared to enhance the amount of terrestrial DOC that bacteria could consume, suggesting that the degradation of these pools is not solely governed by their respective chemical properties, but also by interactions with nutrients. Our study shows that there is a highly reactive pool of terrestrial DOC that is processed in parallel to algal DOC, and because of interactions with nutrients, terrestrial DOC likely supports high levels of bacterial metabolism and CO2 production even in more productive lakes.

  4. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  5. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    PubMed

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes. PMID:27145611

  6. Discreteness effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-05-01

    We analyse numerically the effects of small population size in the initial transient regime of a simple example population dynamics. These effects play an important role for the numerical determination of large deviation functions of additive observables for stochastic processes. A method commonly used in order to determine such functions is the so-called cloning algorithm which in its non-constant population version essentially reduces to the determination of the growth rate of a population, averaged over many realizations of the dynamics. However, the averaging of populations is highly dependent not only on the number of realizations of the population dynamics, and on the initial population size but also on the cut-off time (or population) considered to stop their numerical evolution. This may result in an over-influence of discreteness effects at initial times, caused by small population size. We overcome these effects by introducing a (realization-dependent) time delay in the evolution of populations, additional to the discarding of the initial transient regime of the population growth where these discreteness effects are strong. We show that the improvement in the estimation of the large deviation function comes precisely from these two main contributions.

  7. Influence of Diadema antillarum populations (Echinodermata: Diadematidae) on algal community structure in Jardines de la Reina, Cuba.

    PubMed

    Martín Blanco, Félix; Clero Alonso, Lídice; González Sansón, Gaspar; Amargós Fabián, Pina

    2011-09-01

    The 1983-1984 mass mortality of Diadema antillarum produced severe damages on Caribbean reefs contributing to substantial changes in community structure that still persist. Despite the importance of Diadema grazing in structuring coral reefs, available information on current abundances and algal-urchin interactions in Cuba is scarce. We analyzed spatial variations in Diadema abundance and its influence on algal community structure in 22 reef sites in Jardines de la Reina, in June/2004 and April/2005. Urchins were counted in five 30 x 2m transects per site, and algal coverage was estimated in randomly located 0.25m side quadrats (15 per site). Abundances of Diadema were higher at reef crests (0.013-1.553 ind/m2), while reef slope populations showed values up to three orders of magnitude lower and were overgrown by macroalgae (up to 87%, local values). Algal community structure at reef slopes were dominated by macroalgae, especially Dictyota, Lobophora and Halimeda while the most abundant macroalgae at reef crests were Halimeda and Amphiroa. Urchin densities were negatively and positively correlated with mean coverage of macroalgae and crustose coralline algae, respectively, when analyzing data pooled across all sites, but not with data from separate habitats (specially reef crest), suggesting, along with historical fish biomass, that shallow reef community structure is being shaped by the synergistic action of other factors (e.g. fish grazing) rather than the influence of Diadema alone. However, we observed clear signs of Diadema grazing at reef crests and decreased macroalgal cover according to 2001 data, what suggest that grazing intensity at this habitat increased at the same time that Diadema recruitment began to be noticeable. Furthermore, the excessive abundance of macroalgae at reef slopes and the scarcity of crustose coralline algae seems to be due by the almost complete absence of D. antillarum at mid depth reefs, where local densities of this urchin were

  8. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  9. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  10. Optimizing algal cultivation & productivity : an innovative, multidiscipline, and multiscale approach.

    SciTech Connect

    Murton, Jaclyn K.; Hanson, David T.; Turner, Tom; Powell, Amy Jo; James, Scott Carlton; Timlin, Jerilyn Ann; Scholle, Steven; August, Andrew; Dwyer, Brian P.; Ruffing, Anne; Jones, Howland D. T.; Ricken, James Bryce; Reichardt, Thomas A.

    2010-04-01

    Progress in algal biofuels has been limited by significant knowledge gaps in algal biology, particularly as they relate to scale-up. To address this we are investigating how culture composition dynamics (light as well as biotic and abiotic stressors) describe key biochemical indicators of algal health: growth rate, photosynthetic electron transport, and lipid production. Our approach combines traditional algal physiology with genomics, bioanalytical spectroscopy, chemical imaging, remote sensing, and computational modeling to provide an improved fundamental understanding of algal cell biology across multiple cultures scales. This work spans investigations from the single-cell level to ensemble measurements of algal cell cultures at the laboratory benchtop to large greenhouse scale (175 gal). We will discuss the advantages of this novel, multidisciplinary strategy and emphasize the importance of developing an integrated toolkit to provide sensitive, selective methods for detecting early fluctuations in algal health, productivity, and population diversity. Progress in several areas will be summarized including identification of spectroscopic signatures for algal culture composition, stress level, and lipid production enabled by non-invasive spectroscopic monitoring of the photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments at the single-cell and bulk-culture scales. Early experiments compare and contrast the well-studied green algae chlamydomonas with two potential production strains of microalgae, nannochloropsis and dunnaliella, under optimal and stressed conditions. This integrated approach has the potential for broad impact on algal biofuels and bioenergy and several of these opportunities will be discussed.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics on interdependent populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Gracia-Lázaro, Carlos; Floría, Luis Mario; Moreno, Yamir

    2012-11-01

    Although several mechanisms can promote cooperative behavior, there is no general consensus about why cooperation survives when the most profitable action for an individual is to defect, especially when the population is well mixed. Here we show that when a replicator such as evolutionary game dynamics takes place on interdependent networks, cooperative behavior is fixed on the system. Remarkably, we analytically and numerically show that this is even the case for well-mixed populations. Our results open the path to mechanisms able to sustain cooperation and can provide hints for controlling its rise and fall in a variety of biological and social systems.

  12. Harmful algal blooms (HABs), dissolved organic matter (DOM), and planktonic microbial community dynamics at a near-shore and a harbour station influenced by upwelling (SW Iberian Peninsula)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loureiro, Sofia; Reñé, Albert; Garcés, Esther; Camp, Jordi; Vaqué, Dolors

    2011-05-01

    The surface microalgal community, including harmful species, dissolved organic matter (DOM), and bacterial and viral populations were studied during an annual cycle (November 2007-October 2008) in a Near-shore (NS) and a Harbour (H) station located in an upwelling area (Sagres, SW Iberian Peninsula). The higher water residence time, water stability and shallowness of harbours in comparison with open waters likely contributed to the differences found between stations regarding chemical variables, statistical correlations and harmful algal proliferations. Also, several differences were noticed from a previous assessment ( Loureiro et al., 2005) including higher SST, lower nitrate and chlorophyll a concentrations, along with a shift in the microplankton community structure from diatom to nanoflagellate predominance. These variations feasibly reflect the response of this dynamic system to regional environmental modifications contributing to the understanding of common patterns in environmental change trends. The division of the sampling period into (1) non-upwelling (Non-Uw), (2) "spin-up" of upwelling (SU-Uw), and (3) "spin-down" and relaxation-downwelling (SD-Rel) stages allowed the identification of natural groupings of microplankton samples by Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis. Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and viruses were the most significant abiotic and biotic variables, respectively, contributing to the dissimilarities between these stages (SIMPER analysis) and, therefore, potentially affecting the microplankton community structure. Harmful algal species and a stable viral community appeared to be favoured by SD-Rel conditions. Data seem to indicate that both Gymnodinium catenatum and Heterosigma akashiwo, the most abundant potentially harmful species, have been imported into the sampling area. Also, the H location, together with potential retention sites developing around the Cabo de São Vicente upwelling centre, may contribute to the local

  13. Analysis of green algal growth via dynamic model simulation and process optimization.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dongda; Chanona, Ehecatl Antonio Del-Rio; Vassiliadis, Vassilios S; Tamburic, Bojan

    2015-10-01

    Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is a green microalga with the potential to generate sustainable biofuels for the future. Process simulation models are required to predict the impact of laboratory-scale growth experiments on future scaled-up system operation. Two dynamic models were constructed to simulate C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic and photo-mixotrophic growth. A novel parameter estimation methodology was applied to determine the values of key parameters in both models, which were then verified using experimental results. The photo-mixotrophic model was used to accurately predict C. reinhardtii growth under different light intensities and in different photobioreactor configurations. The optimal dissolved CO2 concentration for C. reinhardtii photo-autotrophic growth was determined to be 0.0643 g·L(-1) , and the optimal light intensity for algal growth was 47 W·m(-2) . Sensitivity analysis revealed that the primary factor limiting C. reinhardtii growth was its intrinsic cell decay rate rather than light attenuation, regardless of the growth mode. The photo-mixotrophic growth model was also applied to predict the maximum biomass concentration at different flat-plate photobioreactors scales. A double-exposure-surface photobioreactor with a lower light intensity (less than 50 W·m(-2) ) was the best configuration for scaled-up C. reinhardtii cultivation. Three different short-term (30-day) C. reinhardtii photo-mixotrophic cultivation processes were simulated and optimised. The maximum biomass productivity was 0.053 g·L(-1) ·hr(-1) , achieved under continuous photobioreactor operation. The continuous stirred-tank reactor was the best operating mode, as it provides both the highest biomass productivity and lowest electricity cost of pump operation. PMID:25855209

  14. Dynamic evolution of telomeric sequences in the green algal order Chlamydomonadales.

    PubMed

    Fulnečková, Jana; Hasíková, Tereza; Fajkus, Jiří; Lukešová, Alena; Eliáš, Marek; Sýkorová, Eva

    2012-01-01

    Telomeres, which form the protective ends of eukaryotic chromosomes, are a ubiquitous and conserved structure of eukaryotic genomes but the basic structural unit of most telomeres, a repeated minisatellite motif with the general consensus sequence T(n)A(m)G(o), may vary between eukaryotic groups. Previous studies on several species of green algae revealed that this group exhibits at least two types of telomeric sequences, a presumably ancestral type shared with land plants (Arabidopsis type, TTTAGGG) and conserved in, for example, Ostreococcus and Chlorella species, and a novel type (Chlamydomonas type, TTTTAGGG) identified in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We have employed several methodical approaches to survey the diversity of telomeric sequences in a phylogenetically wide array of green algal species, focusing on the order Chlamydomonadales. Our results support the view that the Arabidopsis-type telomeric sequence is ancestral for green algae and has been conserved in most lineages, including Mamiellophyceae, Chlorodendrophyceae, Trebouxiophyceae, Sphaeropleales, and most Chlamydomonadales. However, within the Chlamydomonadales, at least two independent evolutionary changes to the Chlamydomonas type occurred, specifically in a subgroup of the Reinhardtinia clade (including C. reinhardtii and Volvox carteri) and in the Chloromonadinia clade. Furthermore, a complex structure of telomeric repeats, including a mix of the ancestral Arabidopsis-type motifs and derived motifs identical to the human-type telomeric repeats (TTAGGG), was found in the chlamydomonadalean clades Dunaliellinia and Stephanosphaeria. Our results indicate that telomere evolution in green algae, particularly in the order Chlamydomonadales, is far more dynamic and complex than thought before. General implications of our findings for the mode of telomere evolution are discussed. PMID:22247428

  15. Remote sensing of ALGAL pigments to determine coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Florida Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, L.L.; Ambrosia, V.G.

    1997-06-01

    An important component of remote sensing of marine and coastal environments is the detection of phytoplankton to estimate biological activity. Traditionally the focus has been on detection of chlorophyll a, a photosynthetic pigment common to all algal groups. Recent advances in remote sensing instrumentation, in particular the development of hyperspectral imaging sensors, allow detection of additional algal pigments that include taxonomically significant photosynthetic and photoprotective accessory pigments. We are working with the hyperspectral imaging sensor AVIRIS (the Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) to characterize phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay. Our data analysis focuses on intersection of image data (and image-derived spectral data) with our in-house library of algal pigment signatures.

  16. Diversity and dynamics of algal Megaviridae members during a harmful brown tide caused by the pelagophyte, Aureococcus anophagefferens.

    PubMed

    Moniruzzaman, Mohammad; Gann, Eric R; LeCleir, Gary R; Kang, Yoonja; Gobler, Christopher J; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2016-05-01

    Many giant dsDNA algal viruses share a common ancestor with Mimivirus--one of the largest viruses, in terms of genetic content. Together, these viruses form the proposed 'Megaviridae' clade of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses. To gauge Megaviridae diversity, we designed degenerate primers targeting the major capsid protein genes of algae-infecting viruses within this group and probed the clade's diversity during the course of a brown tide bloom caused by the harmful pelagophyte,Aureococcus anophagefferens We amplified target sequences in water samples from two distinct locations (Weesuck Creek and Quantuck Bay, NY) covering 12 weeks concurrent with the proliferation and demise of a bloom. In total, 475 amplicons clustered into 145 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at 97% identity. One OTU contained 19 sequences with ≥97% identity to AaV, a member of the Megaviridae clade that infects A. anophagefferens, suggesting AaV was present during the bloom. Unifrac analysis showed clear temporal patterns in algal Megaviridae dynamics, with a shift in the virus community structure that corresponded to the Aureococcus bloom decline in both locations. Our data provide insights regarding the environmental relevance of algal Megaviridae members and raise important questions regarding their phylodynamics across different environmental gradients. PMID:26985013

  17. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Melinda P.; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J.; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z.

    2015-01-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence–absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica—a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of

  18. Intron Invasions Trace Algal Speciation and Reveal Nearly Identical Arctic and Antarctic Micromonas Populations.

    PubMed

    Simmons, Melinda P; Bachy, Charles; Sudek, Sebastian; van Baren, Marijke J; Sudek, Lisa; Ares, Manuel; Worden, Alexandra Z

    2015-09-01

    Spliceosomal introns are a hallmark of eukaryotic genes that are hypothesized to play important roles in genome evolution but have poorly understood origins. Although most introns lack sequence homology to each other, new families of spliceosomal introns that are repeated hundreds of times in individual genomes have recently been discovered in a few organisms. The prevalence and conservation of these introner elements (IEs) or introner-like elements in other taxa, as well as their evolutionary relationships to regular spliceosomal introns, are still unknown. Here, we systematically investigate introns in the widespread marine green alga Micromonas and report new families of IEs, numerous intron presence-absence polymorphisms, and potential intron insertion hot-spots. The new families enabled identification of conserved IE secondary structure features and establishment of a novel general model for repetitive intron proliferation across genomes. Despite shared secondary structure, the IE families from each Micromonas lineage bear no obvious sequence similarity to those in the other lineages, suggesting that their appearance is intimately linked with the process of speciation. Two of the new IE families come from an Arctic culture (Micromonas Clade E2) isolated from a polar region where abundance of this alga is increasing due to climate induced changes. The same two families were detected in metagenomic data from Antarctica--a system where Micromonas has never before been reported. Strikingly high identity between the Arctic isolate and Antarctic coding sequences that flank the IEs suggests connectivity between populations in the two polar systems that we postulate occurs through deep-sea currents. Recovery of Clade E2 sequences in North Atlantic Deep Waters beneath the Gulf Stream supports this hypothesis. Our research illuminates the dynamic relationships between an unusual class of repetitive introns, genome evolution, speciation, and global distribution of this

  19. Freshwater benthic algal population and community changes due to acidity and aluminum-acid mixtures in artificial streams

    SciTech Connect

    Genter, R.B.; Amyot, D.J. )

    1994-03-01

    Communities of freshwater benthic algae were exposed to water acidified daily to pH 4.8 along and in mixtures with 50, 100, or 500 [mu]g L[sup [minus]1] Al. Daily acidification to nominal pH 4.8 in acidified treatments exposed algae to a range of pHs that led to a variety of Al species of different toxicity. Calcium concentrations in stream were higher in acidified and Al treatments on day 1, and dissolved Al in stream water was higher in the highest Al treatment on days 1, 7, and 28; otherwise acid and Al treatments did not significantly alter Al and Ca in the exposure water. Calcium bioaccumulation by periphyton was lower in acidified and Al treatments on all sampling days. Concentrations of Mg in water and periphyton did not differ between treatments. The artificial stream system generated alkalinity to buffer acidified water; the amount of generated alkalinity returned to approximately the same levels for the first week, but the amount of alkalinity generated during the second week appeared to decline, and acid-only and acid-Al mixtures diverged in their ability to generate alkalinity during the third and fourth weeks. Aluminum in acidified water inhibited abundance of diatoms and green and blue-green algae more than the effects of acid stress alone. The green filamentous alga Mougeotia showed a slight increase in abundance in the acid-only treatment. The middle-Al treatment generated more alkalinity and had higher abundance of some algal taxa on days 14 and 28, even though measured Al concentrations in water and periphyton fell between low- and high-Al-treatment levels. Community-level tests, combining a taxonomic analysis of algal population abundance with chemical analysis of water and bioaccumulation, provide valuable insight to assess anthropogenic stress.

  20. Flood trends and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  1. Simulation of algal bloom dynamics in a river with the ensemble Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyunghyun; Park, Minji; Min, Joong-Hyuk; Ryu, Ingu; Kang, Mi-Ri; Park, Lan Joo

    2014-11-01

    A simulation framework of algal bloom in a river channel with data assimilation (DA) was developed by employing two numerical models coupled to simulate a watershed and the embedded river channel. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model simulates flow discharge and water quality from the subwatersheds and the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model takes the subwatershed model outputs at the watershed-river confluence points as boundary forcing to simulate river hydrodynamics and water quality. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was used for assimilation of water quality variables in the framework, linking uncertainty of model simulation and observation. The simulation uncertainty of the HSPF was quantified at the confluence points as simple stochastic error models developed by comparing the model simulation and the observation. The error models reflect uncertainty of both hydrologic and water quality simulation, including uncertainty associated with point and non-point pollution sources in the watershed. The outputs of the HSPF at the confluence points were perturbed with the error models before used in the following ensemble simulation of the EFDC for the main river. DA was conducted with weekly chlorophyll-a data observed along the river to update chlorophyll-a concentrations of the EFDC model grids. The results showed that the model performance was improved by the assimilation: the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean continuous probability rank score (CPRS) significantly decreased compared to the open-loop simulation. The updated spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration along the river channel was in reasonable agreement with the observation. Although only chlorophyll-a data was involved in the assimilation, phosphate was selected among other water quality variables for update in order to evaluate the effect of chlorophyll-a assimilation on those variables. It turned out that the phosphate simulation was not much

  2. Population Growth of the Cladoceran, Daphnia magna: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Different Algal Food

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jong-Yun; Kim, Seong-Ki; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon; Kim, Myoung-Chul; La, Geung-Hwan; Joo, Gea-Jae; Jeong, Kwang-Seuk

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we examined the effects of two phytoplankton species, Chlorella vulgaris and Stephanodiscus hantzschii, on growth of the zooplankton Daphnia magna. Our experimental approach utilized stable isotopes to determine the contribution of food algae to offspring characteristics and to the size of adult D. magna individuals. When equal amounts of food algae were provided (in terms of carbon content), the size of individuals, adult zooplankton, and their offspring increased significantly following the provision of S. hantzschii, but not after the provision of C. vulgaris or of a combination of the two species. Offspring size was unaffected when C. vulgaris or a mixture of the two algal species was delivered, whereas providing only S. hantzschii increased the production of larger-sized offspring. Stable isotope analysis revealed significant assimilation of diatom-derived materials that was important for the growth of D. magna populations. Our results confirm the applicability of stable isotope approaches for clarifying the contribution of different food algae and elucidate the importance of food quality for growth of D. magna individuals and populations. Furthermore, we expect that stable isotope analysis will help to further precisely examine the contribution of prey to predators or grazers in controlled experiments. PMID:24752042

  3. Dynamic clustering of bacterial population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, Elizabeth P.; Yomo, Tetsuya; Urabe, Itaru

    1994-08-01

    Bacterial cells having the same genotype were observed to split into a few clusters of phenotypes with various levels of enzyme activity. When the mixture of these phenotypically heterogeneous but genotypically homogeneous cells was cultivated in a liquid medium, the distribution of the population size of each cluster of phenotypes showed various kinds of dynamic oscillations. In addition, when this dynamic behavior was examined for the cells of the single colony, various patterns of shifting of homogeneous to heterogeneous lineage and vice versa were observed in the population. The results imply that differentiation of the cells with the same genotype can occur without spatial information and even under the same environment where the cells interact globally without spatial constrait. This interesting phenomenon totally contradicts the conventional biology that the genotype of a cell uniquely determines the phenotype of the cell and its progeny, but is consistent with the theoretical model of cell differentiation presented in the following paper. The sources of discrepancy between the existing theory in molecular biology and our results were discussed and it is concluded that in understanding a complex living system, a simple model consisting of the essence of the complex system can be constructed justifying the observed properties of the molecules in the system which provide free interactions.

  4. Structural Changes and Adaptation of Algal Population under Different Regimens of Toxic Exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ipatova, Valentina; Prokhotskaya, Valeria; Dmitrieva, Aida

    Algae are the principal primary producers of aquatic ecosystems. Modern chemical residues from water pollution (such as pesticides in surface and ground waters, antibiotics, chemical substances of military use, heavy metals, oil, oil products, etc.) are a challenge to survival of microagal populations. Growth of many species was restricted even by micromolar concentrations of such xenobiotics.

  5. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  6. Implications of nutrient removal and biomass production by native and augmented algal populations at a municipal wastewater treatment plant.

    PubMed

    Drexler, Ivy L C; Bekaan, Sascha; Eskandari, Yasmin; Yeh, Daniel H

    2014-01-01

    Algal monocultures (Chlorella sorokiniana and Botryococcus braunii) and algal communities native to clarifiers of a wastewater treatment plant were batch cultivated in (1) clarified effluent following a biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) removal reactor post-BOD removal clarified effluent (PBCE), (2) clarified effluent following a nitrification reactor post-nitrification clarified effluent (PNCE), and (3) a reference media (RM). After 12 days, all algal species achieved nitrogen removal between 68 and 82% in PBCE and 37 and 99% in PNCE, and phosphorus removal between 91 and 100% in PBCE and 60 and 100% in PNCE. The pH of the wastewater samples increased above 9.8 after cultivation of each species, which likely aided ammonia volatilization and phosphorus adsorption. Both monocultures grew readily with wastewater as a feedstock, but B. braunii experienced significant crowding from endemic fauna. In most cases, native algal species' nutrient removal efficiency was competitive with augmented algal monocultures, and in some cases achieved a higher biomass yield, demonstrating the potential to utilize native species for nutrient polishing and algal biomass production. PMID:25325538

  7. Atrazine does not affect algal biomass or snail populations in microcosm communities at environmentally relevant concentrations.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Leilan R; Moore, Dana L; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R; Hanson, Mark L

    2011-07-01

    The herbicide atrazine is a photosynthetic inhibitor used around the world in agricultural applications. Contamination of surface waters adjacent to treated areas can directly reduce growth of nontarget aquatic autotrophs, but the severity of impacts is highly dependent on species sensitivity and exposure concentration. Secondary effects resulting from macrophyte or phytoplankton decline may include an expansion of the more tolerant periphyton community. Recently, this shift in the autotrophic community has been proposed as a mechanism for increased rates of parasite infections in amphibians via augmented populations of aquatic snails which act as intermediate hosts to larval trematodes. To further clarify this relationship, an outdoor microcosm study was conducted to examine the effects of atrazine on primary production and snail populations over a range of environmentally relevant concentrations. In July 2009, 15 experimental ponds were treated to achieve initial concentrations of 0, 1, 10, 30, and 100 µg/L atrazine. Over a period of 73 d, measures were taken of macrophyte, phytoplankton, and periphyton biomass, growth, and fecundity of caged snails (Physella spp. and Stagnicola elodes) and free-living snails (Physella spp.). Except for declines in macrophyte biomass at the highest treatment level, no consistent relationships were found between atrazine concentration and any measured parameter. Comparison of these results with previous findings highlights the variability of responses to atrazine exposure between similarly constructed freshwater communities, even at concentrations up to 20 times higher than sustained environmental levels. PMID:21567448

  8. High Resolution Monitoring of Algal Growth Dynamics in a Hypereutrophic River in the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, S. S.; Dahlgren, R.; van Nieuwenhuyse, E.; O'Geen, A. T.; Gallo, E. L.; Ahearn, D. S.

    2005-05-01

    The lower San Joaquin River in California's Central Valley experiences periods of hypoxia during the late summer and fall that is detrimental to aquatic organisms and migration of fall-run chinook salmon and steelhead trout. Hypoxia is attributable, in part, to excess nutrients from urban waste water and agricultural runoff, which contribute to growth of high concentrations of phytoplankton. This study examined spatial and temporal growth patterns that control algal loading using continuous fluorescence measurements at three sites along a 50 km section of the lower San Joaquin River between April and October. A strong diel fluorescence signal was observed and associated grab samples verified that fluorescence was an accurate measure of chlorophyll. Peak chlorophyll concentrations occurred between 18:00 and 20:00 and minimum concentrations between 10:00 and 12:00. Maximum concentrations were nearly two times greater than minimum concentrations although this ratio varied temporally and spatially. Although the mechanism for the diel chlorophyll signal is not very well understood several parameters including temperature, irradiance, turbidity, residence time, stream depth, and zooplankton grazing were considered within the scope of this study. This study highlights the importance of considering high resolution sampling on algal loading rates within heavily impacted riverine systems.

  9. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics in set structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Nowak, Martin A.

    2009-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics are strongly affected by population structure. The outcome of an evolutionary process in a well-mixed population can be very different from that in a structured population. We introduce a powerful method to study dynamical population structure: evolutionary set theory. The individuals of a population are distributed over sets. Individuals interact with others who are in the same set. Any 2 individuals can have several sets in common. Some sets can be empty, whereas others have many members. Interactions occur in terms of an evolutionary game. The payoff of the game is interpreted as fitness. Both the strategy and the set memberships change under evolutionary updating. Therefore, the population structure itself is a consequence of evolutionary dynamics. We construct a general mathematical approach for studying any evolutionary game in set structured populations. As a particular example, we study the evolution of cooperation and derive precise conditions for cooperators to be selected over defectors. PMID:19433793

  11. Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Erez

    2005-03-01

    Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

  12. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  13. Dynamic Random Networks in Dynamic Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britton, Tom; Lindholm, Mathias

    2010-05-01

    We consider a random network evolving in continuous time in which new nodes are born and old may die, and where undirected edges between nodes are created randomly and may also disappear. The node population is Markovian and so is the creation and deletion of edges, given the node population. Each node is equipped with a random social index and the intensity at which a node creates new edges is proportional to the social index, and the neighbour is either chosen uniformly or proportional to its social index in a modification of the model. We derive properties of the network as time and the node population tends to infinity. In particular, the degree-distribution is shown to be a mixed Poisson distribution which may exhibit a heavy tail (e.g. power-law) if the social index distribution has a heavy tail. The limiting results are verified by means of simulations, and the model is fitted to a network of sexual contacts.

  14. Phytoplankton dynamics with a special emphasis on harmful algal blooms in the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Italy).

    PubMed

    Caroppo, Carmela; Cerino, Federica; Auriemma, Rocco; Cibic, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    The response of phytoplankton assemblages to the closure of urban sewage outfalls (USOs) was examined for the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Mediterranean Sea), a productive semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem devoted to shellfish farming. Phytoplankton dynamics were investigated in relation to environmental variables, with a particular emphasis on harmful algal blooms (HABs). Recent analyses evidenced a general reduction of the inorganic nutrient loads, except for nitrates and silicates. Also phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and abundances were characterized by a decrease of the values, except for the inner area of the basin (second inlet). The phytoplankton composition changed, with nano-sized species, indicators of oligotrophic conditions, becoming dominant over micro-sized species. If the closure of the USOs affected phytoplankton dynamics, however, it did not preserve the Mar Piccolo from HABs and anoxia crises. About 25 harmful species have been detected throughout the years, such as the potentially domoic acid producers Pseudo-nitzschia cf. galaxiae and P seudo-nitzschia cf. multistriata, identified for the first time in these waters. The presence of HABs represents a threat for human health and aquaculture. Urgent initiatives are needed to improve the communication with authorities responsible for environmental protection, economic development, and public health for a sustainable mussel culture in the Mar Piccolo. PMID:26206123

  15. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  16. Population dynamics with and without selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pȩkalski, Andrzej; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2001-03-01

    A model describing population dynamics is presented. We study the effect of selection pressure and inbreeding on the time evolution of the population and the chances of survival. We find that the selection is in general beneficial, enabling survival of a population whose size is declining. Inbreeding reduces the survival chances since it leads to clustering of individuals. We have also found, in agreement with biological data, that there is a threshold value of the initial size of the population, as well as of the habitat, below which the population will almost certainly become extinct. We present analytical and computer simulation approaches.

  17. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  18. Travelling waves in vole population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo

    1997-12-01

    Spatial self-organization patterns in population dynamics have been anticipated, but demonstrating their existence requires sampling over long periods of time at a range of sites. Voles cause severe economic damage and are therefore extensively monitored, providing a source of the required data. Using two long-term data sets we now report the existence of travelling waves in vole population numbers.

  19. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics. PMID:26807744

  20. Deterministic evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Altrock, Philipp M; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-07-01

    Evolutionary game dynamics describes the spreading of successful strategies in a population of reproducing individuals. Typically, the microscopic definition of strategy spreading is stochastic such that the dynamics becomes deterministic only in infinitely large populations. Here, we present a microscopic birth-death process that has a fully deterministic strong selection limit in well-mixed populations of any size. Additionally, under weak selection, from this process the frequency-dependent Moran process is recovered. This makes it a natural extension of the usual evolutionary dynamics under weak selection. We find simple expressions for the fixation probabilities and average fixation times of the process in evolutionary games with two players and two strategies. For cyclic games with two players and three strategies, we show that the resulting deterministic dynamics crucially depends on the initial condition in a nontrivial way. PMID:19658731

  1. Combined effect of concentrations of algal food (Chlorella vulgaris) and salt (sodium chloride) on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus patulus (Rotifera).

    PubMed

    Peredo-Alvarez, Víctor M; Sarma, S S; Nandini, S

    2003-06-01

    Salinity is an important variable influencing the density and diversity of rotifers. Studies on salt tolerance of rotifers have so far concentrated on euryhaline species while very little information is available on non-euryhaline taxa. In the present work, we have evaluated the combined effects of Chlorella vulgaris and sodium chloride on the population growth of two freshwater rotifers B. calyciflorus and B. patulus. A 24 hr acute tolerance test using NaCl revealed that B. calyciflorus was more resistant (LC50 = 3.75 +/- 0.04 g l-1) than B. patulus (2.14 +/- 0.09 g l-1). The maximal population density (mean +/- standard error) for B. calyciflorus in the control at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 (algal level) was 80 +/- 5 ind. ml-1, which was nearly a fifth of the one for B. patulus (397 +/- 7 ind. ml-1) under comparable conditions. Data on population growth revealed that regardless of salt concentration, the density of B. calyciflorus increased with increasing food levels, while for B. patulus, this trend was evident only in the controls. Regardless of salt concentration and algal food level, the day of maximal population density was lower (4 +/- 0.5 days) for B. calyciflorus than for B. patulus (11 +/- 1 day). The highest rates of population increase (r values) for B. calyciflorus and B. patulus were 0.429 +/- 0.012 and 0.367 +/- 0.004, respectively, recorded at 4.5 x 10(6) cells ml-1 of Chlorella in the controls. The protective role of algae in reducing the effect of salt stress was more evident in B. calyciflorus than B. patulus. PMID:15162733

  2. Structural dynamics and ecology of flatfish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, Kevin M.

    1997-11-01

    The concept of structure in populations of marine fishes is fundamental to how we manage and conduct research on these resources. The degree of population structure ranges widely among flatfishes. Although we know that large populations tend to be subdivided into local populations, based on morphological, meristic and reproductive characteristics, these data often conflict with evidence on genetic stock structure, due to the scale and organization of movement within the metapopulation. Movement of individuals between local subpopulations and colonization events on a macroecological scale are probably important to some flatfish populations. Dispersal of larvae is known to be a major factor affecting population mixing. Some flatfishes have planktonic stages of long duration and for these species there is often, but not always, little population structure; gene flow sometimes may be limited by oceanographic features, such as eddies and fronts. At the juvenile stage dispersal can result in colonization of under-utilized habitats; however, for flatfishes with strong habitat requirements, this type of event may be less likely when suitable habitats are fragmented. Complex population structure has major implications for management, e.g. lumping harvested populations with little gene flow can have detrimental local effects. Moreover, the issue of population structure and movement influences the interpretation of research data, where populations are generally treated as closed systems. There is currently a strong need for a multidisciplinary approach to study fish population dynamics and the structure of their populations. This research should involve molecular geneticists, population geneticists, animal behaviourists and ecologists. Migration mechanisms, colonization and extinction events, gene flow and density-dependent movements are subject areas of great importance to managing large harvested populations, but our understanding of them at ecological scales, at least for

  3. Bayesian Modeling of the Effects of Extreme Flooding and the Grazer Community on Algal Biomass Dynamics in a Monsoonal Taiwan Stream.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Ming-Chih; Kuo, Mei-Hwa; Chang, Hao-Yen; Lin, Hsing-Juh

    2016-08-01

    The effects of grazing and climate change on primary production have been studied widely, but seldom with mechanistic models. We used a Bayesian model to examine the effects of extreme weather and the invertebrate grazer community on epilithic algal biomass dynamics over 10 years (from January 2004 to August 2013). Algal biomass and the invertebrate grazer community were monitored in the upstream drainage of the Dajia River in Taiwan, where extreme floods have been becoming more frequent. The biomass of epilithic algae changed, both seasonally and annually, and extreme flooding changed the growth and resistance to flow detachment of the algae. Invertebrate grazing pressure changes with the structure of the invertebrate grazer community, which, in turn, is affected by the flow regime. Invertebrate grazer community structure and extreme flooding both affected the dynamics of epilithic algae, but in different ways. Awareness of the interactions between algal communities and grazers/abiotic factors can help with the design of future studies and could facilitate the development of management programs for stream ecosystems. PMID:27273089

  4. Multispecies population dynamics of prebiotic compositional assemblies.

    PubMed

    Markovitch, Omer; Lancet, Doron

    2014-09-21

    Present life portrays a two-tier phenomenology: molecules compose supramolecular structures, such as cells or organisms, which in turn portray population behaviors, including selection, evolution and ecological dynamics. Prebiotic models have often focused on evolution in populations of self-replicating molecules, without explicitly invoking the intermediate molecular-to-supramolecular transition. Here, we explore a prebiotic model that allows one to relate parameters of chemical interaction networks within molecular assemblies to emergent population dynamics. We use the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, which simulates the network dynamics within amphiphile-containing molecular assemblies, and exhibits quasi-stationary compositional states termed compotype species. These grow by catalyzed accretion, divide and propagate their compositional information to progeny in a replication-like manner. The model allows us to ask how molecular network parameters influence assembly evolution and population dynamics parameters. In 1000 computer simulations, each embodying different parameter set of the global chemical interaction network parameters, we observed a wide range of behaviors. These were analyzed by a multi species logistic model often used for analyzing population ecology (r-K or Lotka-Volterra competition model). We found that compotypes with a larger intrinsic molecular repertoire show a higher intrinsic growth (r) and lower carrying capacity (K), as well as lower replication fidelity. This supports a prebiotic scenario initiated by fast-replicating assemblies with a high molecular diversity, evolving into more faithful replicators with narrower molecular repertoires. PMID:24831416

  5. Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

  6. [Development and testing of theories of population dynamics]. First annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Murdoch, W.W.; Bence, J.R.; McCauley, E.; Nisbet, R.M.

    1990-03-15

    We report new analyses to test competing models of the Daphnia/algal interaction. Our model is good at predicting equilibrium algal densities, and if our new insights can account for stability in this system across a wide range of natural environments, this may contribute to understanding predator-prey dynamics in general.

  7. The color of mass culture: spectral characteristics of a shallow water column through shade-limited algal growth dynamics(1).

    PubMed

    Hewes, Christopher D

    2016-04-01

    It is envisioned that mass algal cultivation for commercial biofuels production will entail the use of large raceway pond systems, which typically have shade-limited photosynthetic growth within depths of 20-30 cm. The attenuation of light and spectral qualities of red, green, and blue wavelengths in a 20-cm water column as a function of Chl-a concentration during exponential and linear phases of growth dynamics for the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana was examined under laboratory conditions. While photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) was in excess throughout the water column during the phase of exponential growth, PAR became rate limiting differently for red, green, and blue wavelengths during the phase of linear growth. The transition from exponential to linear growth occurred at 1-2 mg Chl-a · L-1, whereby a scalar ~5 μmol photons · m-2 · s-1 at 20-cm depth was found to occur as would be anticipated having the compensation point for where rates of photosynthesis and respiration are equal. During the phase of linear growth, red wavelengths became increasingly dominant at depth as Chl-a concentrations increased, being contrary to the optical conditions for those natural bodies of water that forced the evolution of phytoplankton photosynthesis. It is hypothesized this dramatic difference in water column optics between natural and synthetic environments could influence a variety of biological reactions, importantly non-photochemical quenching capacities, which could negatively impact crop yield. PMID:27037590

  8. Sequence of the Gonium pectorale Mating Locus Reveals a Complex and Dynamic History of Changes in Volvocine Algal Mating Haplotypes.

    PubMed

    Hamaji, Takashi; Mogi, Yuko; Ferris, Patrick J; Mori, Toshiyuki; Miyagishima, Shinya; Kabeya, Yukihiro; Nishimura, Yoshiki; Toyoda, Atsushi; Noguchi, Hideki; Fujiyama, Asao; Olson, Bradley J S C; Marriage, Tara N; Nishii, Ichiro; Umen, James G; Nozaki, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Sex-determining regions (SDRs) or mating-type (MT) loci in two sequenced volvocine algal species, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Volvox carteri, exhibit major differences in size, structure, gene content, and gametolog differentiation. Understanding the origin of these differences requires investigation of MT loci from related species. Here, we determined the sequences of the minus and plus MT haplotypes of the isogamous 16-celled volvocine alga, Gonium pectorale, which is more closely related to the multicellular V. carteri than to C. reinhardtii Compared to C. reinhardtii MT, G. pectorale MT is moderately larger in size, and has a less complex structure, with only two major syntenic blocs of collinear gametologs. However, the gametolog content of G. pectorale MT has more overlap with that of V. carteri MT than with C. reinhardtii MT, while the allelic divergence between gametologs in G. pectorale is even lower than that in C. reinhardtii Three key sex-related genes are conserved in G. pectorale MT: GpMID and GpMTD1 in MT-, and GpFUS1 in MT+. GpFUS1 protein exhibited specific localization at the plus-gametic mating structure, indicating a conserved function in fertilization. Our results suggest that the G. pectorale-V. carteri common ancestral MT experienced at least one major reformation after the split from C. reinhardtii, and that the V. carteri ancestral MT underwent a subsequent expansion and loss of recombination after the divergence from G. pectorale These data begin to polarize important changes that occurred in volvocine MT loci, and highlight the potential for discontinuous and dynamic evolution in SDRs. PMID:26921294

  9. Sequence of the Gonium pectorale Mating Locus Reveals a Complex and Dynamic History of Changes in Volvocine Algal Mating Haplotypes

    PubMed Central

    Hamaji, Takashi; Mogi, Yuko; Ferris, Patrick J.; Mori, Toshiyuki; Miyagishima, Shinya; Kabeya, Yukihiro; Nishimura, Yoshiki; Toyoda, Atsushi; Noguchi, Hideki; Fujiyama, Asao; Olson, Bradley J. S. C.; Marriage, Tara N.; Nishii, Ichiro; Umen, James G.; Nozaki, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Sex-determining regions (SDRs) or mating-type (MT) loci in two sequenced volvocine algal species, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Volvox carteri, exhibit major differences in size, structure, gene content, and gametolog differentiation. Understanding the origin of these differences requires investigation of MT loci from related species. Here, we determined the sequences of the minus and plus MT haplotypes of the isogamous 16-celled volvocine alga, Gonium pectorale, which is more closely related to the multicellular V. carteri than to C. reinhardtii. Compared to C. reinhardtii MT, G. pectorale MT is moderately larger in size, and has a less complex structure, with only two major syntenic blocs of collinear gametologs. However, the gametolog content of G. pectorale MT has more overlap with that of V. carteri MT than with C. reinhardtii MT, while the allelic divergence between gametologs in G. pectorale is even lower than that in C. reinhardtii. Three key sex-related genes are conserved in G. pectorale MT: GpMID and GpMTD1 in MT–, and GpFUS1 in MT+. GpFUS1 protein exhibited specific localization at the plus-gametic mating structure, indicating a conserved function in fertilization. Our results suggest that the G. pectorale–V. carteri common ancestral MT experienced at least one major reformation after the split from C. reinhardtii, and that the V. carteri ancestral MT underwent a subsequent expansion and loss of recombination after the divergence from G. pectorale. These data begin to polarize important changes that occurred in volvocine MT loci, and highlight the potential for discontinuous and dynamic evolution in SDRs. PMID:26921294

  10. Mapping Coral-Algal Dynamics in a Seasonal Upwelling Area Using Spaceborne High Resolution Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauly, Klaas; Goossens, Rudi; De Clerck, Olivier

    2010-12-01

    PROBA/CHRIS is one of the first satellite sensors to offer both high spatial and spectral resolutions. We explored the potential of this sensor to map the dynamics of seaweed and coral cover in an area influenced by seasonal upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Quantitative field assessments coincided with image acquisitions. After removal of sensor noise and atmospheric effects, maximum likelihood supervised classification yielded a tau accuracy of 64.09 for the summer monsoon dataset. Clearer waters and a lower spatial heterogeneity in the winter monsoon dataset resulted in a tau accuracy of 71.45. Post-classification comparison and vegetation indices illustrated the conspicuous turnover from dense macroalgal stands covering nearly all coral communities during summer to bare rock or turf communities during winter, with coral becoming the predominant bottom type. These results were further analysed using a novel maximum entropy sub-pixel approach and were shown to consistently outperform results from Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery.

  11. Stability, complexity and robustness in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Demongeot, J; Hazgui, H; Ben Amor, H; Waku, J

    2014-09-01

    The problem of stability in population dynamics concerns many domains of application in demography, biology, mechanics and mathematics. The problem is highly generic and independent of the population considered (human, animals, molecules,…). We give in this paper some examples of population dynamics concerning nucleic acids interacting through direct nucleic binding with small or cyclic RNAs acting on mRNAs or tRNAs as translation factors or through protein complexes expressed by genes and linked to DNA as transcription factors. The networks made of these interactions between nucleic acids (considered respectively as edges and nodes of their interaction graph) are complex, but exhibit simple emergent asymptotic behaviours, when time tends to infinity, called attractors. We show that the quantity called attractor entropy plays a crucial role in the study of the stability and robustness of such genetic networks. PMID:25107273

  12. Dynamical inference of hidden biological populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luchinsky, D. G.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Millonas, M.; McClintock, P. V. E.

    2008-10-01

    Population fluctuations in a predator-prey system are analyzed for the case where the number of prey could be determined, subject to measurement noise, but the number of predators was unknown. The problem of how to infer the unmeasured predator dynamics, as well as the model parameters, is addressed. Two solutions are suggested. In the first of these, measurement noise and the dynamical noise in the equation for predator population are neglected; the problem is reduced to a one-dimensional case, and a Bayesian dynamical inference algorithm is employed to reconstruct the model parameters. In the second solution a full-scale Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to infer both the unknown predator trajectory, and also the model parameters, using the one-dimensional solution as an initial guess.

  13. Dynamics of newly established elk populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W., Sr.

    2007-01-01

    The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

  14. Algal functional annotation tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2012-07-12

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Progress in genome sequencing is proceeding at an exponential pace, and several new algal genomes are becoming available every year. One of the challenges facing the community is the association of protein sequences encoded in the genomes with biological function. While most genome assembly projects generate annotations for predicted protein sequences, they are usually limited and integrate functional terms from a limited number of databases. Another challenge is the use of annotations tomore » interpret large lists of 'interesting' genes generated by genome-scale datasets. Previously, these gene lists had to be analyzed across several independent biological databases, often on a gene-by-gene basis. In contrast, several annotation databases, such as DAVID, integrate data from multiple functional databases and reveal underlying biological themes of large gene lists. While several such databases have been constructed for animals, none is currently available for the study of algae. Due to renewed interest in algae as potential sources of biofuels and the emergence of multiple algal genome sequences, a significant need has arisen for such a database to process the growing compendiums of algal genomic data. DESCRIPTION: The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on

  15. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-12

    Abstract BACKGROUND: Progress in genome sequencing is proceeding at an exponential pace, and several new algal genomes are becoming available every year. One of the challenges facing the community is the association of protein sequences encoded in the genomes with biological function. While most genome assembly projects generate annotations for predicted protein sequences, they are usually limited and integrate functional terms from a limited number of databases. Another challenge is the use of annotations to interpret large lists of 'interesting' genes generated by genome-scale datasets. Previously, these gene lists had to be analyzed across several independent biological databases, often on a gene-by-gene basis. In contrast, several annotation databases, such as DAVID, integrate data from multiple functional databases and reveal underlying biological themes of large gene lists. While several such databases have been constructed for animals, none is currently available for the study of algae. Due to renewed interest in algae as potential sources of biofuels and the emergence of multiple algal genome sequences, a significant need has arisen for such a database to process the growing compendiums of algal genomic data. DESCRIPTION: The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG

  16. Dynamic Evolution of the Chloroplast Genome in the Green Algal Classes Pedinophyceae and Trebouxiophyceae

    PubMed Central

    Turmel, Monique; Otis, Christian; Lemieux, Claude

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies of trebouxiophycean chloroplast genomes revealed little information regarding the evolutionary dynamics of this genome because taxon sampling was too sparse and the relationships between the sampled taxa were unknown. We recently sequenced the chloroplast genomes of 27 trebouxiophycean and 2 pedinophycean green algae to resolve the relationships among the main lineages recognized for the Trebouxiophyceae. These taxa and the previously sampled members of the Pedinophyceae and Trebouxiophyceae are included in the comparative chloroplast genome analysis we report here. The 38 genomes examined display considerable variability at all levels, except gene content. Our results highlight the high propensity of the rDNA-containing large inverted repeat (IR) to vary in size, gene content and gene order as well as the repeated losses it experienced during trebouxiophycean evolution. Of the seven predicted IR losses, one event demarcates a superclade of 11 taxa representing 5 late-diverging lineages. IR expansions/contractions account not only for changes in gene content in this region but also for changes in gene order and gene duplications. Inversions also led to gene rearrangements within the IR, including the reversal or disruption of the rDNA operon in some lineages. Most of the 20 IR-less genomes are more rearranged compared with their IR-containing homologs and tend to show an accelerated rate of sequence evolution. In the IR-less superclade, several ancestral operons were disrupted, a few genes were fragmented, and a subgroup of taxa features a G+C-biased nucleotide composition. Our analyses also unveiled putative cases of gene acquisitions through horizontal transfer. PMID:26139832

  17. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  18. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  19. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  20. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal...

  1. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal...

  2. 40 CFR 797.1050 - Algal acute toxicity test.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) Algistatic means having the property of inhibiting algal growth. (3) ECx means the experimentally derived chemical concentration that is calculated to effect X percent of the test criterion. (4) Growth means a relative measure of the viability of an algal population based on the number and/or weight of algal...

  3. Population clocks: motor timing with neural dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buonomano, Dean V.; Laje, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    An understanding of sensory and motor processing will require elucidation of the mechanisms by which the brain tells time. Open questions relate to whether timing relies on dedicated or intrinsic mechanisms and whether distinct mechanisms underlie timing across scales and modalities. Although experimental and theoretical studies support the notion that neural circuits are intrinsically capable of sensory timing on short scales, few general models of motor timing have been proposed. For one class of models, population clocks, it is proposed that time is encoded in the time-varying patterns of activity of a population of neurons. We argue that population clocks emerge from the internal dynamics of recurrently connected networks, are biologically realistic and account for many aspects of motor timing. PMID:20889368

  4. Computer Assisted Instruction of Population Dynamics: A New Approach to Population Education. Report No. T-19.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klaff, Vivian; Handler, Paul

    Available on the University of Illinois PLATO IV Computer system, the Population Dynamic Group computer-aided instruction program for teaching population dynamics is described and explained. The computer-generated visual graphics enable fast and intuitive understanding of the dynamics of population and of the concepts and data of population. The…

  5. Adaptive dynamics for physiologically structured population models.

    PubMed

    Durinx, Michel; Metz, J A J Hans; Meszéna, Géza

    2008-05-01

    We develop a systematic toolbox for analyzing the adaptive dynamics of multidimensional traits in physiologically structured population models with point equilibria (sensu Dieckmann et al. in Theor. Popul. Biol. 63:309-338, 2003). Firstly, we show how the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics (Dieckmann and Law in J. Math. Biol. 34:579-612, 1996), an approximation for the rate of evolutionary change in characters under directional selection, can be extended so as to apply to general physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states. Secondly, we show that the invasion fitness function (up to and including second order terms, in the distances of the trait vectors to the singularity) for a community of N coexisting types near an evolutionarily singular point has a rational form, which is model-independent in the following sense: the form depends on the strategies of the residents and the invader, and on the second order partial derivatives of the one-resident fitness function at the singular point. This normal form holds for Lotka-Volterra models as well as for physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states, in discrete as well as continuous time and can thus be considered universal for the evolutionary dynamics in the neighbourhood of singular points. Only in the case of one-dimensional trait spaces or when N = 1 can the normal form be reduced to a Taylor polynomial. Lastly we show, in the form of a stylized recipe, how these results can be combined into a systematic approach for the analysis of the (large) class of evolutionary models that satisfy the above restrictions. PMID:17943289

  6. Identification of physical parameters controlling the dominance of algal species in a subtropical reservoir.

    PubMed

    Chien, Y C; Wu, S C; Wu, J T

    2009-01-01

    Eutrophication is a serious problem of water resource management in Taiwan. The occurrence of annoying algal species as well as abnormally abundant algal mass threatens the quality of water supply. The growth and decline of a specific phytoplankton species are affected by environmental factors, including light, nutrients, temperature, etc. There have been many investigations on the effects of individual factors on the abundance and composition of algal populations. However, many analyses on the effects of environmental factors, especially the concentration of nutrients, on phytoplankton failed to identify the controlling factors on the dynamic change of the phytoplankton species. This study used statistical methods to isolate the effect of seasons on the phytoplankton growth and searched for the relationships between the nutrient concentrations and the abundance of different algal species in Feitsui Reservoir based on the data obtained from 1995 to 2003. We found that the dynamic change of dominance of some species of phytoplankton was strongly related to the seasonal factors. The controlling factors of the survival of an algal species were the settling and mobility of the phytoplankton, the mixing depth and the vertical mixing strength of the water bodies. According to our preliminary findings, the influence of physical factors, varying seasonally, outweighs the influence of nutrients on the algal species composition in Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan. PMID:19809140

  7. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception

    PubMed Central

    Tajima, Chihiro I.; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-01-01

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment. PMID:26935275

  8. Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations with zealots.

    PubMed

    Nakajima, Yohei; Masuda, Naoki

    2015-02-01

    We investigate evolutionary dynamics of two-strategy matrix games with zealots in finite populations. Zealots are assumed to take either strategy regardless of the fitness. When the strategy selected by the zealots is the same, the fixation of the strategy selected by the zealots is a trivial outcome. We study fixation time in this scenario. We show that the fixation time is divided into three main regimes, in one of which the fixation time is short, and in the other two the fixation time is exponentially long in terms of the population size. Different from the case without zealots, there is a threshold selection intensity below which the fixation is fast for an arbitrary payoff matrix. We illustrate our results with examples of various social dilemma games. PMID:24610380

  9. Assessing the dynamics of wild populations

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Lotka's equations summarizing population dynamics can be approximated by functional models of the survivorship and reproductive curves, incorporating three stages of survival and reproduction, respectively. An abbreviated form uses a single reproductive parameter and two survival values. Survivorship and reproductive curves were fitted to data on northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), domestic and feral sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), free-ranging horses, and fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus). Data for 10 species suggest a useful relationship between senescence parameters. A bias due to senescence may lead to serious underestimation of survival rates. Observed annual rates of increase of 18-20% for feral horses, 16% for southern fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and 60% for white-tailed deer are compatible with observed population parameters. 43 references, 11 figures, 3 tables.

  10. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  11. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  12. Patterns and localized structures in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clerc, M. G.; Escaff, D.; Kenkre, V. M.

    2005-11-01

    Patterns, fronts, and localized structures of a prototypical model for population dynamics interaction are studied. The physical content of the model is the coexistence of a simple random walk for the motion of the individuals with a nonlinearity in the competitive struggle for resources which simultaneously stresses the Allee effect and interaction at a distance. Mathematically, the model is variational and exhibits coexistence between different stable extended states. Solutions are obtained, the phase diagram is constructed, and the emergence of localized structures is investigated.

  13. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  14. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    PubMed

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  15. Automatic identification of algal community from microscopic images.

    PubMed

    Santhi, Natchimuthu; Pradeepa, Chinnaraj; Subashini, Parthasarathy; Kalaiselvi, Senthil

    2013-01-01

    A good understanding of the population dynamics of algal communities is crucial in several ecological and pollution studies of freshwater and oceanic systems. This paper reviews the subsequent introduction to the automatic identification of the algal communities using image processing techniques from microscope images. The diverse techniques of image preprocessing, segmentation, feature extraction and recognition are considered one by one and their parameters are summarized. Automatic identification and classification of algal community are very difficult due to various factors such as change in size and shape with climatic changes, various growth periods, and the presence of other microbes. Therefore, the significance, uniqueness, and various approaches are discussed and the analyses in image processing methods are evaluated. Algal identification and associated problems in water organisms have been projected as challenges in image processing application. Various image processing approaches based on textures, shapes, and an object boundary, as well as some segmentation methods like, edge detection and color segmentations, are highlighted. Finally, artificial neural networks and some machine learning algorithms were used to classify and identifying the algae. Further, some of the benefits and drawbacks of schemes are examined. PMID:24151424

  16. Population dynamics of interacting spiking neurons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattia, Maurizio; del Giudice, Paolo

    2002-11-01

    A dynamical equation is derived for the spike emission rate ν(t) of a homogeneous network of integrate-and-fire (IF) neurons in a mean-field theoretical framework, where the activity of the single cell depends both on the mean afferent current (the ``field'') and on its fluctuations. Finite-size effects are taken into account, by a stochastic extension of the dynamical equation for the ν their effect on the collective activity is studied in detail. Conditions for the local stability of the collective activity are shown to be naturally and simply expressed in terms of (the slope of) the single neuron, static, current-to-rate transfer function. In the framework of the local analysis, we studied the spectral properties of the time-dependent collective activity of the finite network in an asynchronous state; finite-size fluctuations act as an ongoing self-stimulation, which probes the spectral structure of the system on a wide frequency range. The power spectrum of ν exhibits modes ranging from very high frequency (depending on spike transmission delays), which are responsible for instability, to oscillations at a few Hz, direct expression of the diffusion process describing the population dynamics. The latter ``diffusion'' slow modes do not contribute to the stability conditions. Their characteristic times govern the transient response of the network; these reaction times also exhibit a simple dependence on the slope of the neuron transfer function. We speculate on the possible relevance of our results for the change in the characteristic response time of a neural population during the learning process which shapes the synaptic couplings, thereby affecting the slope of the transfer function. There is remarkable agreement of the theoretical predictions with simulations of a network of IF neurons with a constant leakage term for the membrane potential.

  17. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  18. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  19. When Should Harvest Evolution Matter to Population Dynamics?

    PubMed

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Hendry, Andrew P; Carlson, Stephanie M

    2016-07-01

    The potential for evolution to influence fishery sustainability remains a controversial topic. We highlight new modeling research from Dunlop et al. that explores when and how fisheries-induced evolution matters for population dynamics, while also emphasizing transient dynamics in population growth and life history-dependent responses that influence population stability and resiliency. PMID:27095380

  20. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis

    PubMed Central

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A.; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  1. Occupation Dynamics and Impacts of Damselfish Territoriality on Recovering Populations of the Threatened Staghorn Coral, Acropora cervicornis.

    PubMed

    Schopmeyer, Stephanie A; Lirman, Diego

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale coral reef restoration is needed to help recover structure and function of degraded coral reef ecosystems and mitigate continued coral declines. In situ coral propagation and reef restoration efforts have scaled up significantly in past decades, particularly for the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis, but little is known about the role that native competitors and predators, such as farming damselfishes, have on the success of restoration. Steep declines in A. cervicornis abundance may have concentrated the negative impacts of damselfish algal farming on a much lower number of coral prey/colonies, thus creating a significant threat to the persistence and recovery of depleted coral populations. This is the first study to document the prevalence of resident damselfishes and negative effects of algal lawns on A. cervicornis along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT). Impacts of damselfish lawns on A. cervicornis colonies were more prevalent (21.6% of colonies) than those of other sources of mortality (i.e., disease (1.6%), algal/sponge overgrowth (5.6%), and corallivore predation (7.9%)), and damselfish activities caused the highest levels of tissue mortality (34.6%) among all coral stressors evaluated. The probability of damselfish occupation increased as coral colony size and complexity increased and coral growth rates were significantly lower in colonies with damselfish lawns (15.4 vs. 29.6 cm per year). Reduced growth and mortality of existing A. cervicornis populations may have a significant effect on population dynamics by potentially reducing important genetic diversity and the reproductive potential of depleted populations. On a positive note, however, the presence of resident damselfishes decreased predation by other corallivores, such as Coralliophila and Hermodice, and may offset some negative impacts caused by algal farming. While most negative impacts of damselfishes identified in this study affected large individual colonies and

  2. Algal functional annotation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, D.; Casero, D.; Cokus, S. J.; Merchant, S. S.; Pellegrini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The Algal Functional Annotation Tool is a web-based comprehensive analysis suite integrating annotation data from several pathway, ontology, and protein family databases. The current version provides annotation for the model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, and in the future will include additional genomes. The site allows users to interpret large gene lists by identifying associated functional terms, and their enrichment. Additionally, expression data for several experimental conditions were compiled and analyzed to provide an expression-based enrichment search. A tool to search for functionally-related genes based on gene expression across these conditions is also provided. Other features include dynamic visualization of genes on KEGG pathway maps and batch gene identifier conversion.

  3. Dynamics of Genome Rearrangement in Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    Darling, Aaron E.; Miklós, István; Ragan, Mark A.

    2008-01-01

    first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes. PMID:18650965

  4. Ecological risk assessment of herbicides in Japan: Integrating spatiotemporal variation in exposure and effects using a multimedia model and algal density dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Takehiko I; Imaizumi, Yoshitaka; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Tatarazako, Norihisa; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    2016-01-01

    Application of herbicides to paddy fields in Japan has strong seasonality, and their environmental concentrations exhibit clear spatiotemporal variation. The authors developed an approach that combines a multimedia environmental exposure model (Grid-Catchment Integrated Modeling System) and density dynamics models for algae. This approach enabled assessment of ecological risk when the exposure concentration shows spatiotemporal variation. First, risk maps of 5 herbicides (pretilachlor, butachlor, simetryn, mefenacet, and esprocarb) were created from the spatial predictions of environmental concentrations and 50% inhibitory concentrations of the herbicides. Simulations of algal density dynamics at high-risk sites were then conducted by incorporating the predicted temporal dynamics of the environmental concentration of each herbicide at the sites. The results suggested that the risk of pretilachlor was clearly the highest of the 5 herbicides, in terms of both the spatial distributions and the temporal durations. The present study highlights the importance of integrating exposure models and effect models to clarify spatial and temporal risk and to develop management plans for chemical exposure that shows high spatiotemporal variation. PMID:26183805

  5. Biological control of harmful algal blooms: A modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solé, Jordi; Estrada, Marta; Garcia-Ladona, Emilio

    2006-07-01

    A multispecies dynamic simulation model (ERSEM) was used to examine the influence of allelopathic and trophic interactions causing feeding avoidance by predators, on the formation of harmful algal blooms, under environmental scenarios typical of a Mediterranean harbour (Barcelona). The biological state variables of the model included four functional groups of phytoplankton (diatoms, toxic and non-toxic flagellates and picophytoplankton), heterotrophic flagellates, micro- and mesozooplankton and bacteria. The physical-chemical forcing (irradiance, temperature and major nutrient concentrations) was based on an actual series of measurements taken along a year cycle in the Barcelona harbour. In order to evaluate potential effects of advection, some runs were repeated after introducing a biomass loss term. Numerical simulations showed that allelopathic effects of a toxic alga on a non-toxic but otherwise similar competitor did not have appreciable influence on the dynamics of the system. However, induction of avoidance of the toxic alga by predators, which resulted on increased predation pressure on other algal groups had a significant effect on the development of algal and predator populations. The presence of advection overrided the effect of these interactions and only allowed organisms with sufficiently high potential growth rates to thrive.

  6. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knight, Richard R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review and further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population.

  7. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few topics have attracted the attention of ecologists more than fluctuations in the numbers of plants and animals through time and their variation in abundance through space. nderstanding population fluctuations, and thus population conservation, requires understanding the links ...

  8. Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, S. Moss

    1999-12-01

    We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

  9. Experimental evidence of antiphase population dynamics in lasers

    SciTech Connect

    Cabrera, Eduardo; Calderon, Oscar G.; Guerra, J.M.

    2005-10-15

    We report a direct experimental observation of antiphase oscillations in population dynamics in lasers. We show that these population oscillations are intrinsically related to the well-known antiphase polarization dynamics, i.e., the antiphase oscillations of two orthogonal polarization laser field states. We have used a class B Nd:YAG (yttrium aluminum garnet) laser.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  12. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    PubMed

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted. PMID:12314273

  13. Population dynamics of Yellowstone grizzly bears

    SciTech Connect

    Knight, R.R.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1985-04-01

    Data on the population of grizzly bears in the environs of Yellowstone National Park suggest that the population has not recovered from the reductions following closure of garbage dumps in 1970 and 1971, and may continue to decline. A computer simulation model indicates that the risk of extirpation over the next 30 yr is small, if the present population parameters continue to prevail. A review an further analysis of the available data brings out the importance of enhancing adult female survival if the population is to recover, and assesses various research needs. In particular, a reliable index of population trend is needed to augment available data on the population. 12 references, 9 figures, 6 tables.

  14. [Population dynamics and education in Paraguay].

    PubMed

    1977-01-01

    Formulation of development plans and of demographic policies for Paraguay must take into consideration the national reality as a whole, with its cultural, moral, religious, and political values. Other factors to be considered are: 1) the relatively low density of the population; 2) the low mortality, which influences a rather rapid population growth; 3) the predominance of a population in young age; and, 4) the new tendency to urbanzation. PMID:12309623

  15. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  16. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks.

    PubMed

    Matter, Stephen F; Roland, Jens

    2010-03-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics. PMID:19889700

  17. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay

    2016-08-01

    Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations. PMID:27154920

  18. Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

    1981-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

  19. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  20. Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

    2013-03-21

    We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. PMID:23306058

  1. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  2. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations. PMID:26172687

  3. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  4. Dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, algal biomass, and suspended solids in an artificial lentic ecosystem and significant implications of regional hydrology on trophic status.

    PubMed

    An, Kwang-Guk; Park, Seok Soon; Ahn, Kyu-Hong; Urchin, Christopher G

    2003-01-01

    Chemical and biological parameters were analyzed to examine how regional hydrological fluctuations influence water quality of a artificial lentic ecosystem over a two-year period The intensity of seasonal monsoon rain accounted for most of annual inflow and discharge and influenced flow pathway (interflow vs. overflow), resulting in a modification of chemical and biological conditions. Sharp contrasting interannual hydrology of intense vs. weak monsoon occurred during the study. The intense monsoon disrupted thermal stratification and resulted in ionic dilution, high TP and high inorganic solids (NVSS) in the headwater reach. The variation of NVSS accounted 75% of TP variation (slope = 4.14, p < 0.01, n = 48). Regression analysis of residual chlorophyll-a (Chl) versus flushing rate indicated that short hydraulic retention time and high mineral turbidity affected algal growth in the headwater reach during summer monsoon. In contrast, severe drought during weak monsoon produced strong thermal stratification, low inorganic solids, high total dissolved solids (TDS), and low TP in the entire system. In addition, Chl concentrations were controlled by phosphorus. Based on the physical, chemical and biological parameters, riverine conditions, dominated during the intense monsoon, but lacustrine conditions were evident during the weak monsoon. The interannual dynamics suggest that monsoon seasonality is considered the main forcing factor regulating overall functions and processes of the waterbody and this characteristic has an important implication to eutrophication of the system. PMID:12974409

  5. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

    PubMed

    Deville, Pierre; Linard, Catherine; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R; Gaughan, Andrea E; Blondel, Vincent D; Tatem, Andrew J

    2014-11-11

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  6. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

    PubMed Central

    Deville, Pierre; Martin, Samuel; Gilbert, Marius; Stevens, Forrest R.; Gaughan, Andrea E.; Blondel, Vincent D.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. PMID:25349388

  7. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  8. Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Beasley, James C; Olson, Zachary H; Beatty, William S; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008-2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow repopulation

  9. Effects of Culling on Mesopredator Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beasley, James C.; Olson, Zachary H.; Beatty, William S.; Dharmarajan, Guha; Rhodes, Olin E.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor) from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008–2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given the slow

  10. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  11. A linear model of population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  12. PHYTOPLANKTON DYNAMICS IN A GULF OF MEXICO ESTUARY: TIME SERIES OF SIZE STRUCTURE, NUTRIENTS, VARIABLE FLUORESCENCE AND ALGAL PHOSPHATASE ACTIVITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Relationships between phytoplankton dynamics and physiology, and environmental conditions were studied in Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, USA, at near-weekly intervals during 2001. Santa Rosa Sound is a component of the Pensacola Bay estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Parameters ...

  13. Multistability in simplest models of the population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhdanova, Oksana L.; Frisman, Efim Ya.

    2016-06-01

    The investigation of dynamics behavior of population number and genetic structure has been conducted for a homogeneous limited population influenced by density-dependent selection in single di-allelic genetic locus. The detailed investigation of the mechanisms of the loss of stability in the considered model is carried out. It is shown that coexistence of several different asymptotic dynamic regimes (with own attraction basins) is possible in numerous enough parametric regions which are meaningful biologically.

  14. Algal Supply System Design - Harmonized Version

    SciTech Connect

    Abodeely, Jared; Stevens, Daniel; Ray, Allison; Newby, Deborah; Schaller, Kastli

    2013-03-01

    The objective of this design report is to provide an assessment of current technologies used for production, dewatering, and converting microalgae cultivated in open-pond systems to biofuel. The original draft design was created in 2011 and has subsequently been brought into agreement with the DOE harmonized model. The design report extends beyond this harmonized model to discuss some of the challenges with assessing algal production systems, including the ability to (1) quickly assess alternative algal production system designs, (2) assess spatial and temporal variability, and (3) perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. The Algae Logistics Model (ALM) was developed to address each of these limitations of current modeling efforts to enable assessment of the economic feasibility of algal production systems across the United States. The (ALM) enables (1) dynamic assessments using spatiotemporal conditions, (2) exploration of algal production system design configurations, (3) investigation of algal production system operating assumptions, and (4) trade-off assessments with technology decisions and operating assumptions. The report discusses results from the ALM, which is used to assess the baseline design determined by harmonization efforts between U.S. DOE national laboratories. Productivity and resource assessment data is provided by coupling the ALM with the Biomass Assessment Tool developed at PNNL. This high-fidelity data is dynamically passed to the ALM and used to help better understand the impacts of spatial and temporal constraints on algal production systems by providing a cost for producing extracted algal lipids annually for each potential site.

  15. Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Topics Eighth Annual National Conference on Health Communication, Marketing & Media August 19-21, 2014 Atlanta, GA Harmful Algal Blooms Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On this Page What's the ...

  16. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  17. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-07-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  18. The 5:1 Neptune Resonance: Dynamics and Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Gladman, Brett; Petit, Jean-Marc; Alexandersen, Mike

    2014-11-01

    Based on 4 objects detected with semi-major axes near the 5:1 external resonance with Neptune, we estimate a substantial and previously unrecognized population of objects, perhaps more significant than the 3:2 (Plutino) resonance population. These external resonances are largely unexplored in both observations and dynamical simulations. However, understanding the characteristics and trapping history for objects in these populations is critical for constraining the dynamical history of the solar system. The 4 objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) were classified using dynamical integrations. Three are resonant, and the last appears to be a resonant drop-off. The 3 objects are taken to be representative of the steady-state population, so by using these detections and the CFEPS characterization (pointings and detection limits) we calculate a population estimate for this resonance at ~3000(+5000 -2000) with Hg<8. This is at least as large as the Plutinos (3:2 resonance) at 90% confidence. The small number of detected objects results in such a large population estimate due to the numerous biases against detecting objects with semimajor axes at 88AU. Based on the dynamical behavior of the known objects, the trapping mechanism for the 5:1 resonance appears to be resonance sticking from the scattering objects. The long resonance lifetimes of some dynamical clones suggests that a steady state population could be maintained through periodic sticking.

  19. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  20. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  1. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  2. Multiple Cancer Cell Population Dynamics in a Complex Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ke-Chih; Targa, Gonzalo; Pienta, Kenneth; Sturm, James; Austin, Robert

    We have developed a technology for study of complex ecology cancer population dynamics. The technology includes complex drug gradients, full bright field/dark field/fluorescence imaging of areas of several square millimeters and thin gas-permable membranes which allow single cell extraction and analysis. We will present results of studies of prostate cancer cell dynamics.

  3. A Particle Population Control Method for Dynamic Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweezy, Jeremy; Nolen, Steve; Adams, Terry; Zukaitis, Anthony

    2014-06-01

    A general particle population control method has been derived from splitting and Russian Roulette for dynamic Monte Carlo particle transport. A well-known particle population control method, known as the particle population comb, has been shown to be a special case of this general method. This general method has been incorporated in Los Alamos National Laboratory's Monte Carlo Application Toolkit (MCATK) and examples of it's use are shown for both super-critical and sub-critical systems.

  4. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    PubMed

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  5. Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvidio, Sebastiano

    2007-05-01

    Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993 2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

  6. Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

    2012-02-01

    Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

  7. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  8. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  9. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford. PMID:26655354

  10. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  11. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  12. Autecological properties of 3-chlorobenzoate-degrading bacteria and their population dynamics when introduced into sediments.

    PubMed

    Bott, T L; Kaplan, L A

    2002-03-01

    Ecologically significant properties of wild-type and genetically engineered bacteria capable of degrading 3-chlorobenzoate (3-CB) were compared in the laboratory, and isolates were introduced into streambed sediments in microcosms to observe their population dynamics. 3-CB metabolism, growth on algal extract, temperature optima, and ingestion by protozoa were ecological properties considered relevant to the persistence of these bacteria if introduced into nature. Cell-specific Vmax for 3-CB metabolism and cell-specific mineralization rates each spanned approximately 2 orders of magnitude, but isolates did not rank consistently. The Ks for 3-CB metabolism for Alcaligenes sp. BR60 was approximately 40-fold lower than the mean value for the other isolates, which differed only approximately 4-fold among themselves. All isolates grew on an algal extract nearly as well as on tryptone-yeast extract, implying potential for survival on natural metabolic substrates in situ. Most isolates had temperature optima that were 3-15 degrees C higher than maximum stream water temperature (22 degrees C). Ciliates preferentially ingested P. acidovorans M3GY, and either P. putida RC-4(pSI30) or its parent strain were least preferred, but microflagellates did not exhibit consistent preferences. Fluorescent antibodies were prepared against isolates to permit detection of target cells in natural communities. In three different microcosm experiments the cell densities of introduced isolates declined over a period of days. In one experiment, 3-CB additions (100 mg/L) led to increases of P. alcaligenes C-0 and P. acidovorans M3GY cell densities within 1 day, although P. putida RC-4(pSI30) took 4 days. In a second experiment, the persistence of P. putida RC-4(pSI30) and its parent strain P. putida RC-4 were compared and rates of initial population decline were not statistically different. 3-CB addition stimulated the growth of other organisms while densities of the P. putida strains further

  13. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Leibler, Stanislas

    2015-10-01

    Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES) as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  14. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  15. Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

    2008-01-01

    Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

  16. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    PubMed

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do. PMID:24057917

  17. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions. PMID:26986362

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

    2016-02-01

    The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

  19. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aravind, Nisha P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K. K. C.; Achuthankutty, C. T.

    2007-08-01

    The life cycle of the gammarid amphipod Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton from the Cochin estuary, south west coast of India, has been studied for the first time under laboratory conditions. Amphipods, especially gammarids, are used as potential live feed in fish culture. Eriopisa chilkensis can withstand wide variations in salinity (5-35) and temperature (27.5-34 °C) of the medium. It was cultured in un-aerated finger bowls using dried algal matter ( Chara sp.) as food. The life span of females was found to be higher (maximum: 220 days) than males (maximum: 175 days). Females were iteroparous and attained sexual maturity within 39.3 ± 6 days (mean ± SD), whereas males matured within 26.5 ± 5.6 days. Number of broods in a life span ranged from 4 to 7. The maximum number of juveniles produced in a single brood was 29 and the maximum number of juveniles produced by a single female over a lifetime was 139. The duration of embryonic development was 12 ± 2.45 days. The population dynamics of E. chilkensis was studied based on monthly sampling, over one year from the mangrove swamps of Puduvypin. It occurred in varying densities in the epifaunal community (21-1583 ind. m -2). Extrapolation of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle.

  20. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  1. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  2. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  3. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  4. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t < t1 = κb) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t_1\\lt t\\lt t_2\\propto \\kappa_a and for which θ0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  5. Population Dynamics with Global Regulation: The Conserved Fisher Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, T. J.; Kolomeisky, E. B.; Antonovics, J.

    2004-06-01

    We introduce and study a conserved version of the Fisher equation. Within a population biology context, this model describes spatially extended populations in which the total number of individuals is fixed due to either biotic or environmental factors. We find a rich spectrum of dynamical phases including a pseudotraveling wave and, in the presence of the Allee effect, a phase transition from a locally constrained high density state to a low density fragmented state.

  6. Evolutionary History and Population Dynamics of Hepatitis E Virus

    PubMed Central

    Purdy, Michael A.; Khudyakov, Yury E.

    2010-01-01

    Background Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an enterically transmitted hepatropic virus. It segregates as four genotypes. All genotypes infect humans while only genotypes 3 and 4 also infect several animal species. It has been suggested that hepatitis E is zoonotic, but no study has analyzed the evolutionary history of HEV. We present here an analysis of the evolutionary history of HEV. Methods and Findings The times to the most recent common ancestors for all four genotypes of HEV were calculated using BEAST to conduct a Bayesian analysis of HEV. The population dynamics for genotypes 1, 3 and 4 were analyzed using skyline plots. Bayesian analysis showed that the most recent common ancestor for modern HEV existed between 536 and 1344 years ago. The progenitor of HEV appears to have given rise to anthropotropic and enzootic forms of HEV, which evolved into genotypes 1 and 2 and genotypes 3 and 4, respectively. Population dynamics suggest that genotypes 1, 3 and 4 experienced a population expansion during the 20th century. Genotype 1 has increased in infected population size ∼30–35 years ago. Genotype 3 and 4 have experienced an increase in population size starting late in the 19th century until ca.1940-45, with genotype 3 having undergone additional rapid expansion until ca.1960. The effective population size for both genotype 3 and 4 rapidly declined to pre-expansion levels starting in ca.1990. Genotype 4 was further examined as Chinese and Japanese sequences, which exhibited different population dynamics, suggesting that this genotype experienced different evolutionary history in these two countries. Conclusions HEV appears to have evolved through a series of steps, in which the ancestors of HEV may have adapted to a succession of animal hosts leading to humans. Analysis of the population dynamics of HEV suggests a substantial temporal variation in the rate of transmission among HEV genotypes in different geographic regions late in the 20th Century. PMID:21203540

  7. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  8. Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

    2016-06-01

    We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

  9. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. PMID:25403576

  10. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K J; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21(st) century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  11. Bacterial associations reveal spatial population dynamics in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Buck, Moritz; Nilsson, Louise K. J.; Brunius, Carl; Dabiré, Roch K.; Hopkins, Richard; Terenius, Olle

    2016-01-01

    The intolerable burden of malaria has for too long plagued humanity and the prospect of eradicating malaria is an optimistic, but reachable, target in the 21st century. However, extensive knowledge is needed about the spatial structure of mosquito populations in order to develop effective interventions against malaria transmission. We hypothesized that the microbiota associated with a mosquito reflects acquisition of bacteria in different environments. By analyzing the whole-body bacterial flora of An. gambiae mosquitoes from Burkina Faso by 16 S amplicon sequencing, we found that the different environments gave each mosquito a specific bacterial profile. In addition, the bacterial profiles provided precise and predicting information on the spatial dynamics of the mosquito population as a whole and showed that the mosquitoes formed clear local populations within a meta-population network. We believe that using microbiotas as proxies for population structures will greatly aid improving the performance of vector interventions around the world. PMID:26960555

  12. Dynamics of Two Populations with Different Birth Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Julia; Pekalski, Andrzej

    We propose a simple model describing the dynamics of a system of two populations — more numerous natives and less numerous immigrants. The immigrants' birth rate is higher than that of the natives. Several modifications of this model taking into account changes of the birth rates due to external factors and/or possibility of contacts between the populations, are also introduced. The model is studied within two approaches — by solving a set of differential equations and through a Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the question of which population will eventually dominate depends on such factors as the probability of producing offsprings of mixed origin, assimilation of the immigrants, the ratio of the birth rates, initial numbers of the populations and the average age of an individual. In all, but two extreme cases, both populations will survive.

  13. Algal Biofuels Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    2009-10-27

    This fact sheet provides information on algal biofuels, which are generating considerable interest around the world. They may represent a sustainable pathway for helping to meet the U.S. biofuel production targets set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

  14. Algal Bloom Detection from HICO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amin, Ruhul; Gould, Richard

    2014-05-01

    Ocean color satellites provide daily, global views of marine bio-optical properties in the upper ocean at various spatial scales. The most productive area of the global ocean is the coastal zone which is heavily impacted by urban and agricultural runoff, transportation, recreation, and oil and gas production. In recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) have become one of the serious environmental problems in the coastal areas on a global scale. The global nature of the problem has expanded in its frequency, severity, and extent over the last several decades. Human activities and population increases have contributed to an increase in various toxic and noxious algal species in the coastal regions worldwide. Eutrophication in estuaries and coastal waters is believed to be the major factor causing HABs. In this study, we assess the applicability of the Red Band Difference (RBD) HAB detection algorithm on data from the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO). Our preliminary results show that due to various uncertainties such as atmospheric correction, calibration and possibly also the relatively low signal-to-noise ratio of HICO for fluorescence detection, it is difficult to extract the fluorescence portion of the reflectance spectrum that RBD uses for bloom detection. We propose an improved bloom detection technique for HICO using red and NIR bands. Our results are validated using other space-borne and ground based measurements.

  15. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  16. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  17. Population Dynamics, Demography, Dispersal and Spread of Bemisia tabaci

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bemisia tabaci is an insect pest of global significance. It attacks multiple crops and causes damage through feeding and transmission of plant viruses. This review focuses on the current state of knowledge of the population dynamics, demography and dispersal of this important pest. Sampling metho...

  18. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  19. Evolution of complex dynamics in spatially structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Johst, K.; Doebeli, M.; Brandl, R.

    1999-01-01

    Dynamics of populations depend on demographic parameters which may change during evolution. In simple ecological models given by one-dimensional difference equations, the evolution of demographic parameters generally leads to equilibrium population dynamics. Here we show that this is not true in spatially structured ecological models. Using a multi-patch metapopulation model, we study the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypes that differ both in their response to local crowding, i.e. in their competitive behaviour within a habitat, and in their rate of dispersal between habitats. Our simulation results show that evolution can favour phenotypes that have the intrinsic potential for very complex dynamics provided that the environment is spatially structured and temporally variable. These phenotypes owe their evolutionary persistence to their large dispersal rates. They typically coexist with phenotypes that have low dispersal rates and that exhibit equilibrium dynamics when alone. This coexistence is brought about through the phenomenon of evolutionary branching, during which an initially uniform population splits into the two phenotypic classes.

  20. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

    PubMed Central

    Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

  1. Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

    PubMed Central

    Winkler, Manuela; Hülber, Karl; Hietz, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization. Methods Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function. Key Results Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity. Conclusions For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single

  2. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  3. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

  4. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  5. Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-01

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies. PMID:26367172

  6. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  7. Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

  8. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  9. The influence of a toxic cyanobacterial bloom and water hydrology on algal populations and macroinvertebrate abundance in the upper littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift, South Africa.

    PubMed

    Oberholster, Paul J; Botha, Anna-Maria; Ashton, Peter J

    2009-01-01

    The biological interactions and the physical and chemical properties of the littoral zone of Lake Krugersdrift were studied for a 4-month period when a dense, toxic cyanobacterial bloom dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa was present in the main lake basin. The presence of a toxic strain of M. aeruginosa was confirmed through the use of ELISA and molecular markers that detect the presence of the mcyB and mcyD genes of the mcy gene cluster that synthesizes microcystin. An increase in Microcystis toxicity at sites dominated by the cyanobacterial scum was accompanied by an increase in total abundance of the macroinvertebrate families Hirudinae, Chironomidae, and Tubificidae. Sites located away from the cyanobacterial scum had a lower abundance but a higher diversity of macroinvertebrates. The water quality under the Microcystis scum was characterized by low pH values, low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and lower total alkalinity values. The periphytic alga Ulothrix zonata was absent in areas dominated by the cyanobacterial scum, possibly as a result of overshadowing by the scum or direct toxic allelopathic effects on growth and photosynthesis. The diatom Diatoma vulgare dominated the benthic algal flora beneath the cyanobacterial scum. PMID:18802748

  10. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  11. Spreading dynamics on heterogeneous populations: Multitype network approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazquez, Alexei

    2006-12-01

    I study the spreading of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. The population structure is described by a contact graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population heterogeneity is taken into account by the agent’s subdivision in types and the mixing matrix among them. I introduce a type-network representation for the mixing matrix, allowing an intuitive understanding of the mixing patterns and the calculations. Using an iterative approach I obtain recursive equations for the probability distribution of the outbreak size as a function of time. I demonstrate that the expected outbreak size and its progression in time are determined by the largest eigenvalue of the reproductive number matrix and the characteristic distance between agents on the contact graph. Finally, I discuss the impact of intervention strategies to halt epidemic outbreaks. This work provides both a qualitative understanding and tools to obtain quantitative predictions for the spreading dynamics of heterogeneous populations.

  12. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

  13. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.

    2011-01-01

    Background Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the

  14. Structural Drift: The Population Dynamics of Sequential Learning

    PubMed Central

    Crutchfield, James P.; Whalen, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream “teacher” and then pass samples from the model to their downstream “student”. It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory. PMID:22685387

  15. Evolutionary dynamics of a multigroup fluctuating-population system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatia, D. P.; Arora, D.; Prasad, M. A.

    1993-03-01

    We studied the evolutionary dynamics of a population undergoing asexual reproduction in a flat-fitness landscape. The quantity of interest is the distribution of the overlap function q which is a measure of the similarity in the genome structure between two individuals. We obtain analytical expressions for , , and p(q) in a model with the following features: continuous time, fluctuating population divided into many compartments, and a finite number of genes per genome. A few special cases of interest are also discussed.

  16. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P.; Strogatz, Steven H.

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  17. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  18. Dynamical models of a sample of Population II stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levison, H. F.; Richstone, D. O.

    1986-09-01

    Dynamical models are constructed in order to investigate the implications of recent kinematic data of distant Population II stars on the emissivity distribution of those stars. Models are constructed using a modified Schwarzschild method in two extreme scale-free potentials, spherical and E6 elliptical. Both potentials produce flat rotation curves and velocity dispersion profiles. In all models, the distribution of stars in this sample is flat. Moreover, it is not possible to construct a model with a strictly spheroidal emissivity distribution. Most models have dimples at the poles. The dynamics of the models indicate that the system is supported by both the third integral and z angular momentum.

  19. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  20. Raman spectroscopy for the characterization of algal cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samek, Ota; Jonáš, Alexandr; Pilát, Zdeněk; Zemánek, Pavel; Nedbal, Ladislav; Tříska, Jan; Kotas, Petr; Trtílek, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Raman spectroscopy can elucidate fundamental questions about intercellular variability and what governs it. Moreover, knowing the metabolic response on single cell level this can significantly contribute to the study and use of microalgae in systems biology and biofuel technology. Raman spectroscopy is capable to measure nutrient dynamics and metabolism in vivo, in real-time, label free making it possible to monitor/evaluate population variability. Also, degree of unsaturation of the algae oil (iodine value) can be measured using Raman spectra obtained from single microalgae. The iodine value is the determination of the amount of unsaturation contained in fatty acids (in the form of double bonds). Here we demonstrate the capacity of the spatially resolved Raman microspectroscopy to determine the effective iodine value in lipid storage bodies of individual living algal cells. We employed the characteristic peaks in the Raman scattering spectra at 1,656 cm-1 (cis C=C stretching mode) and 1,445 cm-1 (CH2 scissoring mode) as the markers defining the ratio of unsaturated-to-saturated carbon-carbon bonds of the fatty acids in the algal lipids.

  1. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    PubMed

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. PMID:27271946

  2. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Sabes, Philip N.

    2015-01-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  3. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  4. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    PubMed

    Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

    2015-11-01

    Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

  5. Continuous probabilistic analysis to evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations.

    PubMed

    Gao, Meng

    2009-07-01

    Evolutionary game dynamics of two strategies in finite population is studied by continuous probabilistic approach. Besides frequency dependent selection, mutation was also included in this study. The equilibrium probability density functions of abundance, expected time to extinction or fixation were derived and their numerical solutions are calculated as illustrations. Meanwhile, individual-based computer simulations are also done. A comparison reveals the consistency between theoretical analysis and simulations. PMID:19219510

  6. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gårdmark, Anna

    2011-07-01

    Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue. Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) also was evident, these factors were less important than resource availability and interspecific competition. Understanding key ecological processes and interactions is fundamental to ecosystem-based management practices necessary to promote sustainable exploitation of small pelagic fish. PMID:21870614

  7. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Juan M.; Moorcroft, Paul R.; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Kie, John G.; Powell, Roger A.; Merrill, Evelyn H.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2010-01-01

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through ‘spatially informed’ movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission–fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction. PMID:20566505

  8. National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrell, John; Sarisky-Reed, Valerie

    2010-05-01

    The framework for National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap was constructed at the Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap Workshop, held December 9-10, 2008, at the University of Maryland-College Park. The Workshop was organized by the Biomass Program to discuss and identify the critical challenges currently hindering the development of a domestic, commercial-scale algal biofuels industry. This Roadmap presents information from a scientific, economic, and policy perspectives that can support and guide RD&D investment in algal biofuels. While addressing the potential economic and environmental benefits of using algal biomass for the production of liquid transportation fuels, the Roadmap describes the current status of algae RD&D. In doing so, it lays the groundwork for identifying challenges that likely need to be overcome for algal biomass to be used in the production of economically viable biofuels.

  9. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes.

    PubMed

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  10. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDermid, Richard M.

    2015-04-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the ATLAS3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future work.

  11. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  12. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations

    PubMed Central

    Santos, F. C.; Pacheco, J. M.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-01-01

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  13. Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

    PubMed

    Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

    2006-02-28

    Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations. PMID:16484371

  14. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  15. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  16. Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

  17. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  18. Population dynamics in Asia and the Pacific: implications for development.

    PubMed

    1994-03-01

    This article is an excerpt from a recently published article on interactions between population and development in the "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, 1993." Topics include the dynamics of change (growth, age structure, sex composition, migration); implications for specific development issues (population and education, population and health, population and employment, and population and the environment); and policy approaches (slowing growth, spatial distribution, and the role of women). The Asian focus is on population policy and fertility declines. Different conditions specific to each country and varying degrees of program success give rise to country-specific differences in rates of growth and declines in fertility. Population compositions and pressures on spatial distribution differ among countries. Development demands differ for education, health, employment, and environmental controls. A common feature is that population is integrated into social and economic development policies. The links between population and the environment are recognized and will be integrated into policy as knowledge emerges. The ESCAP region has about 58% of world population, and fertility has declined to 3.1 children per woman. Fertility declines do not result in demonstrable changes in the rate of population growth, because the proportion of reproductive age women has increased and will continue to do so until 2010. Reductions in fertility are balanced by mortality declines. The annual rate of increase has gradually slowed, however the absolute size is still huge. The goal of the Bali Declaration of 1992 is to reach replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per woman by 2010 in the ESCAP region. The UN median variant projects 2.4 children per woman by 2010. The countries unlikely to reach replacement level fertility are India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Age structure will determine the need for services. For example, South Asia will

  19. Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassell, Michael P.; Comins, Hugh N.; Mayt, Robert M.

    1991-09-01

    MOST environments are spatially subdivided, or patchy, and there has been much interest in the relationship between the dynamics of populations at the local and regional (metapopulation) scales1. Here we study mathematical models for host-parasitoid interactions, where in each generation specified fractions (µN and µp, respectively) of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in each patch move to adjacent patches; in most previous work, the movement is not localized but is to any other patch2. These simple and biologically sensible models with limited diffusive dispersal exhibit a remarkable range of dynamic behaviour: the density of the host and parasitoid subpopulations in a two-dimensional array of patches may exhibit complex patterns of spiral waves or spatially chaotic variation, they may show static 'crystal lattice' patterns, or they may become extinct. This range of behaviour is obtained with the local dynamics being deterministically unstable, with a constant host reproductive rate and no density dependence in the movement patterns. The dynamics depend on the host reproductive rate, and on the values of the parameters µN and µp. The results are relatively insensitive to the details of the interactions; we get essentially the same results from the mathematically-explicit Nicholon-Bailey model of host-parasitoid interactions, and from a very general 'cellular automaton' model in which only qualitative rules are specified. We conclude that local movement in a patchy environment can help otherwise unstable host and parasitoid populations to persist together, but that the deterministically generated spatial patterns in population density can be exceedingly complex (and sometimes indistinguishable from random environmental fluctuations).

  20. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  1. Algal biofuels from wastewater treatment high rate algal ponds.

    PubMed

    Craggs, R J; Heubeck, S; Lundquist, T J; Benemann, J R

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the potential of algae biofuel production in conjunction with wastewater treatment. Current technology for algal wastewater treatment uses facultative ponds, however, these ponds have low productivity (∼10 tonnes/ha.y), are not amenable to cultivating single algal species, require chemical flocculation or other expensive processes for algal harvest, and do not provide consistent nutrient removal. Shallow, paddlewheel-mixed high rate algal ponds (HRAPs) have much higher productivities (∼30 tonnes/ha.y) and promote bioflocculation settling which may provide low-cost algal harvest. Moreover, HRAP algae are carbon-limited and daytime addition of CO(2) has, under suitable climatic conditions, the potential to double production (to ∼60 tonnes/ha.y), improve bioflocculation algal harvest, and enhance wastewater nutrient removal. Algae biofuels (e.g. biogas, ethanol, biodiesel and crude bio-oil), could be produced from the algae harvested from wastewater HRAPs, The wastewater treatment function would cover the capital and operation costs of algal production, with biofuel and recovered nutrient fertilizer being by-products. Greenhouse gas abatement results from both the production of the biofuels and the savings in energy consumption compared to electromechanical treatment processes. However, to achieve these benefits, further research is required, particularly the large-scale demonstration of wastewater treatment HRAP algal production and harvest. PMID:21330711

  2. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  3. A seasnake's colour affects its susceptibility to algal fouling

    PubMed Central

    Shine, R.; Brischoux, F.; Pile, A. J.

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary transitions from terrestrial to aquatic life modify selective forces on an animal's coloration. For example, light penetrates differently through water than air, and a new suite of predators and visual backgrounds changes the targets of selection. We suggest that an aquatic animal's coloration may also affect its susceptibility to algal fouling. In a colour-polymorphic field population of seasnakes (Emydocephalus annulatus) in New Caledonia, black individuals supported higher algal cover than did banded conspecifics. In experimental tests, black snake models (plastic tubes) accumulated more algae than did banded models. Algal cover substantially reduced snake activity (in the field) and swimming speeds (in the laboratory). Effects of algal cover on a snake's hydrodynamic efficiency and/or its rate of cutaneous gas exchange thus may impose selection on the colours of aquatic organisms. PMID:20375055

  4. Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, A R E

    2003-01-01

    The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

  5. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  6. Slicing and dicing globular clusters: dynamically evolved single stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sippel, Anna C.; Hurley, Jarrod R.

    2016-04-01

    We utilize direct N-body models of globular clusters including stellar evolution to calculate magnitudes for each star in the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys 555, 606 and 814 filters. This enables us to analyse the colour of dynamically evolved single stellar populations over time in colour-magnitude diagrams of both, resolved and integrated globular clusters. We find that the change of integrated cluster colour is driven predominantly by the colour of the brightest stars available and hence by stellar evolution, but not by the removal of low-mass stars. We show that even in mass-segregated clusters, different stellar populations are distributed over the entire cluster. This implies that evolved stars also exist within and outside the half-mass radius.

  7. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations. PMID:25117688

  8. The island syndrome and population dynamics of introduced rats.

    PubMed

    Russell, James C; Ringler, David; Trombini, Aurélien; Le Corre, Matthieu

    2011-11-01

    The island syndrome predicts directional changes in the morphology and demography of insular vertebrates, due to changes in trophic complexity and migration rates caused by island size and isolation. However, the high rate of human-mediated species introductions to some islands also increases trophic complexity, and this will reduce the perceived insularity on any such island. We test four hypotheses on the role of increased trophic complexity on the island syndrome, using introduced black rats (Rattus rattus) on two isolated coral atolls in the Mozambique Channel. Europa Island has remained relatively pristine and insular, with few species introductions, whereas Juan de Nova Island has had many species introductions, including predators and competitors of rats, anthropogenically increasing its trophic complexity. In the most insular environments, the island syndrome is expected to generate increases in body size and densities of rodents but decreases in the rates of reproduction and population cycling. Morphology and reproduction were compared using linear regression and canonical discriminant analysis, while density and population cycling were compared using spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis. Results were compared to other insular black rat populations in the Mozambique Channel and were consistent with predictions from the island syndrome. The manifestation of an island syndrome in rodents depends upon the trophic composition of a community, and may not relate to island size alone when many species additions, such as invasions, have occurred. The differing patterns of rodent population dynamics on each island provide information for future rodent eradication operations. PMID:21643994

  9. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with different learners

    PubMed Central

    Chatterjee, Krishnendu; Zufferey, Damien; Nowak, Martin A.

    2012-01-01

    We study evolutionary game theory in a setting where individuals learn from each other. We extend the traditional approach by assuming that a population contains individuals with different learning abilities. In particular we explore the situation where individuals have different search spaces, when attempting to learn the strategies of others. The search space of an individual specifies the set of strategies learnable by that individual. The search space is genetically given and does not change under social evolutionary dynamics. We introduce a general framework and study a specific example in the context of direct reciprocity. For this example we obtain the counter intuitive result that cooperation can only evolve for intermediate benefit-to-cost ratios, while small and large benefit-to-cost ratios favor defection. Our paper is a step toward making a connection between computational learning theory and evolutionary game dynamics. PMID:22394652

  10. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment.

    PubMed

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  11. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Leilei; Pan, Qiuhui; Gao, Xubin; He, Mingfeng

    2016-01-01

    During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1) have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings. PMID:26904150

  12. Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Said, Maher

    We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

  13. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  14. Population-dynamics method with a multicanonical feedback control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemoto, Takahiro; Bouchet, Freddy; Jack, Robert L.; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-06-01

    We discuss the Giardinà-Kurchan-Peliti population dynamics method for evaluating large deviations of time-averaged quantities in Markov processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 120603 (2006), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.120603]. This method exhibits systematic errors which can be large in some circumstances, particularly for systems with weak noise, with many degrees of freedom, or close to dynamical phase transitions. We show how these errors can be mitigated by introducing control forces within the algorithm. These forces are determined by an iteration-and-feedback scheme, inspired by multicanonical methods in equilibrium sampling. We demonstrate substantially improved results in a simple model, and we discuss potential applications to more complex systems.

  15. Population-dynamics method with a multicanonical feedback control.

    PubMed

    Nemoto, Takahiro; Bouchet, Freddy; Jack, Robert L; Lecomte, Vivien

    2016-06-01

    We discuss the Giardinà-Kurchan-Peliti population dynamics method for evaluating large deviations of time-averaged quantities in Markov processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 120603 (2006)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.96.120603]. This method exhibits systematic errors which can be large in some circumstances, particularly for systems with weak noise, with many degrees of freedom, or close to dynamical phase transitions. We show how these errors can be mitigated by introducing control forces within the algorithm. These forces are determined by an iteration-and-feedback scheme, inspired by multicanonical methods in equilibrium sampling. We demonstrate substantially improved results in a simple model, and we discuss potential applications to more complex systems. PMID:27415224

  16. Front acceleration by dynamic selection in Fisher population waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bénichou, O.; Calvez, V.; Meunier, N.; Voituriez, R.

    2012-10-01

    We introduce a minimal model of population range expansion in which the phenotypes of individuals present no selective advantage and differ only in their diffusion rate. We show that such neutral phenotypic variability (i.e., that does not modify the growth rate) alone can yield phenotype segregation at the front edge, even in absence of genetic noise, and significantly impact the dynamical properties of the expansion wave. We present an exact asymptotic traveling wave solution and show analytically that phenotype segregation accelerates the front propagation. The results are compatible with field observations such as invasions of cane toads in Australia or bush crickets in Britain.

  17. Periodically varying externally imposed environmental effects on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, M.; Kenkre, V. M.; Kuperman, M. N.

    2004-09-01

    Effects of externally imposed periodic changes in the environment on population dynamics are studied with the help of a simple model. The environmental changes are represented by the temporal and spatial dependence of the competition terms in a standard equation of evolution. Possible applications of the analysis are on the one hand to bacteria in Petri dishes and on the other to rodents in the context of the spread of the Hantavirus epidemic. The analysis shows that spatiotemporal structures emerge, with interesting features which depend on the interplay of separately controllable aspects of the externally imposed environmental changes.

  18. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  19. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  20. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals. PMID:26606790

  1. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  2. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  3. Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Rudicell, Rebecca S; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E; Learn, Gerald H; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D Anthony; Keele, Brandon F; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H; Pusey, Anne E; Wilson, Michael L

    2010-01-01

    Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected

  4. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  5. [Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

    PubMed

    Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

    2014-01-01

    We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices. PMID:25786310

  6. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2011-07-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  7. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  8. Population dynamics of microbial communities in the zebrafish gut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemielita, Matthew; Taormina, Michael; Burns, Adam; Hampton, Jennifer; Rolig, Annah; Wiles, Travis; Guillemin, Karen; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    2015-03-01

    The vertebrate intestine is home to a diverse microbial community, which plays a crucial role in the development and health of its host. Little is known about the population dynamics and spatial structure of this ecosystem, including mechanisms of growth and interactions between species. We have constructed an experimental model system with which to explore these issues, using initially germ-free larval zebrafish inoculated with defined communities of fluorescently tagged bacteria. Using light sheet fluorescence microscopy combined with computational image analysis we observe and quantify the entire bacterial community of the intestine during the first 24 hours of colonization, during which time the bacterial population grows from tens to tens of thousands of bacteria. We identify both individual bacteria and clusters of bacteria, and quantify the growth rate and spatial distribution of these distinct subpopulations. We find that clusters of bacteria grow considerably faster than individuals and are located in specific regions of the intestine. Imaging colonization by two species reveals spatial segregation and competition. These data and their analysis highlight the importance of spatial organization in the establishment of gut microbial communities, and can provide inputs to physical models of real-world ecological dynamics.

  9. Inferring Network Dynamics and Neuron Properties from Population Recordings

    PubMed Central

    Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to “identify” its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input–output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices. PMID:22016731

  10. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics. PMID:26201216

  11. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are

  12. Algal Biofuels; Algal Biofuels R&D at NREL (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2010-09-01

    An overview of NREL's algal biofuels projects, including U.S. Department of Energy-funded work, projects with U.S. and international partners, and Laboratory Directed Research and Development projects.

  13. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  14. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M

    2014-06-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  15. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

  16. Urban aerosols harbor diverse and dynamic bacterial populations

    PubMed Central

    Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Parker, Jordan P. Moberg; Zubietta, Ingrid X.; Piceno, Yvette M.; Andersen, Gary L.

    2007-01-01

    Considering the importance of its potential implications for human health, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability, surprisingly little is known regarding the composition or dynamics of the atmosphere's microbial inhabitants. Using a custom high-density DNA microarray, we detected and monitored bacterial populations in two U.S. cities over 17 weeks. These urban aerosols contained at least 1,800 diverse bacterial types, a richness approaching that of some soil bacterial communities. We also reveal the consistent presence of bacterial families with pathogenic members including environmental relatives of select agents of bioterrorism significance. Finally, using multivariate regression techniques, we demonstrate that temporal and meteorological influences can be stronger factors than location in shaping the biological composition of the air we breathe. PMID:17182744

  17. "Population dynamics of crustaceans": introduction to the symposium.

    PubMed

    Buhay, Jennifer E

    2011-10-01

    Crustaceans are a globally-distributed faunal group, found across all habitats from the equator to the poles. They are an ideal focal assemblage for assessment of the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbance on nonmodel systems, such as how sea currents influence the movements of zooplankton communities in the open ocean, or how ecosystem processes affect phytoplanktonic species with restricted geographic distributions across a cluster of island lakes that could be a new model system for studies of speciation. This symposium introduced early-career researchers working in the fields of phylogeography, ecogenomics, fisheries management, and ecosystem processes with the aim of highlighting the different genetic and ecological approaches to the study of population dynamics of freshwater, estuarine, and marine crustacean species. PMID:21856734

  18. Neural Population Dynamics Modeled by Mean-Field Graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozma, Robert; Puljic, Marko

    2011-09-01

    In this work we apply random graph theory approach to describe neural population dynamics. There are important advantages of using random graph theory approach in addition to ordinary and partial differential equations. The mathematical theory of large-scale random graphs provides an efficient tool to describe transitions between high- and low-dimensional spaces. Recent advances in studying neural correlates of higher cognition indicate the significance of sudden changes in space-time neurodynamics, which can be efficiently described as phase transitions in the neuropil medium. Phase transitions are rigorously defined mathematically on random graph sequences and they can be naturally generalized to a class of percolation processes called neuropercolation. In this work we employ mean-field graphs with given vertex degree distribution and edge strength distribution. We demonstrate the emergence of collective oscillations in the style of brains.

  19. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  20. [Phlebotomines of Senegal (Diptera: Psychodidae): population and population dynamics of the Mont-Rolland region].

    PubMed

    Ba, Y; Trouillet, J; Thonnon, J; Fontenille, D

    1998-06-01

    Phlebotomine sandflies were captured on a monthly basis from May 1995 to April 1996 in the Mont-Rolland district in Western Senegal. The objectives were to study the population dynamics of sandflies and to make an inventory of the viruses they transmit. Among 10,315 specimens captured, belonging to 14 species, Sergentomyia dubia (35.9%), S. schwetzi (27.7%) and S. buxtoni (24.5%) were the most abundant. Species from the genus Sergentomyia accounted for 99.6% versus 0.4% for the genus Phlebotomus. The sandflies population was observed to peak in February. The most populated resting sites of the captured insects were in decreasing order tree-holes, termite-hills and burrows. S. dubia was the most abundant species captured in tree-holes. It was S. buxtoni in termite-hills, while S. schwetzi was found to dwell most often in burrows. No virus was isolated from 2,114 specimens tested. PMID:9754310

  1. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

    2016-03-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population, there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

  2. Population dynamics in a metastable neon magneto-optical trap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glover, R. D.; Calvert, J. E.; Sang, R. T.

    2013-02-01

    We observe the population dynamics within a metastable neon magneto-optical trap (MOT) through the measurement of the average squared Clebsch-Gordan coefficient C2 over a range of laser detunings. The magnitude of C2 is dependent on the internal quantum state of an atom interacting with the light field and is found to show a strong dependence on the applied laser detuning. Previously it has been reported [Townsend , Phys. Rev. APLRAAN1050-294710.1103/PhysRevA.52.1423 52, 1423 (1995)] that trapped atoms in a MOT are pumped towards the states that interact most strongly with the local field and therefore the measured value of C2 is larger than the average over all possible transitions. For the 3P2-to-3D3 cooling transition in metastable neon the average C2 value is equal to 0.46; however, we have measured 0.29±0.03populations are measured via fluorescence in a MOT.

  3. Environmental Feedbacks and Engineered Nanoparticles: Mitigation of Silver Nanoparticle Toxicity to Chlamydomonas reinhardtii by Algal-Produced Organic Compounds

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson, Louise M.; Dickson, Helen; Klanjscek, Tin; Keller, Arturo A.; McCauley, Edward; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2013-01-01

    The vast majority of nanotoxicity studies measures the effect of exposure to a toxicant on an organism and ignores the potentially important effects of the organism on the toxicant. We investigated the effect of citrate-coated silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) on populations of the freshwater alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii at different phases of batch culture growth and show that the AgNPs are most toxic to cultures in the early phases of growth. We offer strong evidence that reduced toxicity occurs because extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compounds produced by the algal cells themselves mitigate the toxicity of AgNPs. We analyzed this feedback with a dynamic model incorporating algal growth, nanoparticle dissolution, bioaccumulation of silver, DOC production and DOC-mediated inactivation of nanoparticles and ionic silver. Our findings demonstrate how the feedback between aquatic organisms and their environment may impact the toxicity and ecological effects of engineered nanoparticles. PMID:24086348

  4. Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey.

    PubMed

    Barraquand, Frédéric; New, Leslie F; Redpath, Stephen; Matthiopoulos, Jason

    2015-08-01

    We develop a theory of generalist predation showing how alternative prey species are affected by changes in both mean abundance and variability (coefficient of variation) of their predator's primary prey. The theory is motivated by the indirect effects of cyclic rodent populations on ground-breeding birds, and developed through progressive analytic simplifications of an empirically-based model. It applies nonetheless to many other systems where primary prey have fast life-histories and can become superabundant, thus facilitating impact on alternative prey species and generating highly asymmetric interactions. Our results suggest that predator effects on alternative prey should generally decrease with mean primary prey abundance, and increase with primary prey variability (low to high CV)-unless predators have strong aggregative responses, in which case these results can be reversed. Approximations of models including predator dynamics (general numerical response with possible delays) confirm these results but further suggest that negative temporal correlation between predator and primary prey is harmful to alternative prey. Finally, we find that measurements of predator numerical responses are crucial to predict-even qualitatively-the response of ecosystems to changes in the dynamics of outbreaking prey species. PMID:25930160

  5. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

    PubMed Central

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E.

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts—suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics. PMID:26308448

  6. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  7. Seasonal and annual dynamics of harmful algae and algal toxins revealed through weekly monitoring at two coastal ocean sites off southern California, USA.

    PubMed

    Seubert, Erica L; Gellene, Alyssa G; Howard, Meredith D A; Connell, Paige; Ragan, Matthew; Jones, Burton H; Runyan, Jennifer; Caron, David A

    2013-10-01

    Reports of toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) attributed to the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia spp. have been increasing in California during the last several decades. Whether this increase can be attributed to enhanced awareness and monitoring or to a dramatic upswing in the development of HAB events remains unresolved. Given these uncertainties, the ability to accurately and rapidly identify an emerging HAB event is of high importance. Monitoring of HAB species and other pertinent chemical/physical parameters at two piers in southern California, Newport and Redondo Beach, was used to investigate the development of a site-specific bloom definition for identifying emerging domoic acid (DA) events. Emphasis was given to abundances of the Pseudo-nitzschia seriata size category of Pseudo-nitzschia due to the prevalence of this size class in the region. P. seriata bloom thresholds were established for each location based on deviations from their respective long-term mean abundances, allowing the identification of major and minor blooms. Sixty-five percent of blooms identified at Newport Beach coincided with measurable DA concentrations, while 36 % of blooms at Redondo Beach coincided with measurable DA. Bloom definitions allowed for increased specificity in multiple regression analysis of environmental forcing factors significant to the presence of DA and P. seriata. The strongest relationship identified was between P. seriata abundances 2 weeks following upwelling events at Newport Beach. PMID:23288675

  8. Dynamical evolution and spatial mixing of multiple population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesperini, Enrico; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; D'Antona, Francesca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2013-03-01

    Numerous spectroscopic and photometric observational studies have provided strong evidence for the widespread presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of multiple population clusters, focusing on the evolution of the spatial distributions of the first- (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars. In previous studies, we have suggested that SG stars formed from the ejecta of FG AGB stars are expected initially to be concentrated in the cluster inner regions. Here, by means of N-body simulations, we explore the time-scales and the dynamics of the spatial mixing of the FG and the SG populations and their dependence on the SG initial concentration. Our simulations show that, as the evolution proceeds, the radial profile of the SG/FG number ratio, NSG/NFG, is characterized by three regions: (1) a flat inner part; (2) a declining part in which FG stars are increasingly dominant and (3) an outer region where the NSG/NFG profile flattens again (the NSG/NFG profile may rise slightly again in the outermost cluster regions). Until mixing is complete and the NSG/NFG profile is flat over the entire cluster, the radial variation of NSG/NFG implies that the fraction of SG stars determined by observations covering a limited range of radial distances is not, in general, equal to the SG global fraction, (NSG/NFG)glob. The distance at which NSG/NFG equals (NSG/NFG)glob is approximately between 1 and 2 cluster half-mass radii. The time-scale for complete mixing depends on the SG initial concentration, but in all cases complete mixing is expected only for clusters in advanced evolutionary phases, having lost at least 60-70 per cent of their mass due to two-body relaxation (in addition to the early FG loss due to the cluster expansion triggered by SNII ejecta and gas expulsion).The results of our simulations suggest that in many Galactic globular clusters the SG should still be more spatially concentrated than the

  9. Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

    PubMed

    Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

    2015-11-01

    Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be

  10. Fueling Future with Algal Genomics

    SciTech Connect

    Grigoriev, Igor

    2012-07-05

    Algae constitute a major component of fundamental eukaryotic diversity, play profound roles in the carbon cycle, and are prominent candidates for biofuel production. The US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (JGI) is leading the world in algal genome sequencing (http://jgi.doe.gov/Algae) and contributes of the algal genome projects worldwide (GOLD database, 2012). The sequenced algal genomes offer catalogs of genes, networks, and pathways. The sequenced first of its kind genomes of a haptophyte E.huxleyii, chlorarachniophyte B.natans, and cryptophyte G.theta fill the gaps in the eukaryotic tree of life and carry unique genes and pathways as well as molecular fossils of secondary endosymbiosis. Natural adaptation to conditions critical for industrial production is encoded in algal genomes, for example, growth of A.anophagefferens at very high cell densities during the harmful algae blooms or a global distribution across diverse environments of E.huxleyii, able to live on sparse nutrients due to its expanded pan-genome. Communications and signaling pathways can be derived from simple symbiotic systems like lichens or complex marine algae metagenomes. Collectively these datasets derived from algal genomics contribute to building a comprehensive parts list essential for algal biofuel development.

  11. The effect of light direction and suspended cell concentrations on algal biofilm growth rates.

    PubMed

    Schnurr, Peter J; Espie, George S; Allen, D Grant

    2014-10-01

    Algae biofilms were grown in a semicontinuous flat plate biofilm photobioreactor to study the effects of light direction and suspended algal cell populations on algal biofilm growth. It was determined that, under the growth conditions and biofilm thicknesses studied, light direction had no effect on long-term algal biofilm growth (26 days); however, light direction did affect the concentration of suspended algal cells by influencing the photon flux density in the growth medium in the photobioreactors. This suspended algal cell population affected short-term (7 days) algae cell recruitment and algal biofilm growth, but additional studies showed that enhanced suspended algal cell populations did not affect biofilm growth rates over the long term (26 days). Studying profiles of light transmittance through biofilms as they grew showed that most of the light became attenuated by the biomass after just a few days of growth (88 % after 3 days). The estimated biofilm thicknesses after these few days of growth were approximately 150 μm. The light attenuation data suggests that, although the biofilms grew to 700-900 μm, under these light intensities, only the first few hundred micrometers of the biofilm is receiving enough light to be photosynthetically active. We postulate that this photosynthetically active layer of the biofilm grows adjacent to the light source, while the rest of the biofilm is in a stationary growth phase. The results of this study have implications for algal biofilm photobioreactor design and operation. PMID:25149444

  12. Dynamics of Populations of Planetary Systems (IAU C197)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

    2005-05-01

    population of asteroids in the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter revised Miroslav Broz, D. Vokrouhlicky, F. Roig, D. Nesvorny, W. F. Bottke and A. Morbidelli; 22. On the reliability of computation of maximum Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents for asteroids Zoran Knezevic and Slobodan Ninkovic; 23. Nekhoroshev stability estimates for different models of the Trojan asteroids Christos Efthymiopoulos; 24. The role of the resonant 'stickiness' in the dynamical evolution of Jupiter family comets A. Alvarez-Canda and F. Roig; 25. Regimes of stability and scaling relations for the removal time in the asteroid belt: a simple kinetic model and numerical tests Mihailo Cubrovic; 26. Virtual asteroids and virtual impactors Andrea Milani; 27. Asteroid population models Alessandro Morbidelli; 28. Linking Very Large Telescope asteroid observations M. Granvik, K. Muinonen, J. Virtanen, M. Delbó, L. Saba, G. De Sanctis, R. Morbidelli, A. Cellino and E. Tedesco; 29. Collision orbits and phase transition for 2004 AS1 at discovery Jenni Virtanen, K. Muinonen, M. Granvik and T. Laakso; 30. The size of collision solutions in orbital elements space G. B. Valsecchi, A. Rossi, A. Milani and S. R. Chesley; 31. Very short arc orbit determination: the case of asteroid 2004 FU162 Steven R. Chesley; 32. Nonlinear impact monitoring: 2-dimensional sampling Giacomo Tommei; 33. Searching for gravity assisted trajectories to accessible near-Earth asteroids Stefan Berinde; 34. KLENOT - Near Earth and other unusual objects observations Michal Kocer, Jana Tichá and M. Tichy; 35. Transport of comets to the Inner Solar System Hans Rickman; 36. Nongravitational Accelerations on Comets Steven R. Chesley and Donald K. Yeomans; 37. Interaction of planetesimals with the giant planets and the shaping of the trans-Neptunian belt Harold F. Levison and Alessandro Morbidelli; 38. Transport of comets to the outer p

  13. Short-term temporal dynamics of algal species in a subtidal kelp bed in relation to changes in environmental conditions and canopy biomass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Goldberg, Nisse

    2008-01-01

    Understanding temporal variation at the scale of weeks to months is critical to understanding broad temporal patterns in diversity in the same way as understanding diversity across landscapes relies on understanding variation at the scale of meters. However, whereas small-scale spatial variation in temperate reef algal assemblages has been extensively studied, fine-scale temporal changes have not been well addressed. By sampling the macroalgae of a subtidal reef near Perth (Australia), dominated by the small kelp Ecklonia radiata, every ˜40 days over a 2-year period, we were able to test whether temporal changes in species richness, assemblage structure and species turn-over were related to seasonal changes in surface temperature, solar radiation and wave height. A total of 93 macroalgal taxa were identified, and species richness per sampling time ranged from 25 to 64 taxa 1.25 m -2. Biomass of E. radiata was positively correlated with changes in sea surface temperature and light, and negatively correlated with wave height. Species richness, assemblage structure and turn-over of other macroalgae were more associated with seasonal changes in kelp biomass than environmental variables per se. We conclude that seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive changes in the kelp canopy, which in turn drive changes in species richness and assemblage structure. This suggests that habitat-formers such as kelps can exert a strong temporal influence on associated communities, analogous to well-described spatial influences. Thus, as kelp canopy biomass expands and retracts over time-scales of weeks to months, so does available space for colonization and growth, resulting in a high species turn-over. Species richness is therefore increased and maintained through time, in the same way as canopy-gap mosaics increase and maintain species richness across spatial landscapes.

  14. Theoretical lessons for increasing algal biofuel: Evolution of oil accumulation to avert carbon starvation in microalgae.

    PubMed

    Akita, Tetsuya; Kamo, Masashi

    2015-09-01

    Microalgae-derived oil is considered as a feasible alternative to fossil-derived oil. To produce more algal biomass, both algal population size and oil accumulation in algae must be maximized. Most of the previous studies have concentrated on only one of these issues, and relatively little attention has been devoted to considering the tradeoff between them. In this paper, we first theoretically investigated evolutionary reasons for oil accumulation and then by coupling population and evolutionary dynamics, we searched for conditions that may provide better yields. Using our model, we assume that algae allocate assimilated carbon to growth, maintenance, and carbon accumulation as biofuel and that the amount of essential materials (carbon and nitrate) are strongly linked in fixed proportions. Such stoichiometrically explicit models showed that (i) algae with more oil show slower population growth; therefore, the use of such algae results in lower total yields of biofuel and (ii) oil accumulation in algae is caused by carbon and not nitrate starvation. The latter can be interpreted as a strategy for avoiding the risk of increased death rate by carbon starvation. Our model also showed that both strong carbon starvation and moderately limited nitrate will promote total biofuel production. Our results highlight considering the life-history traits for a higher total yields of biofuel, which leads to insight into both establishing a prolonged culture and collection of desired strains from a natural environment. PMID:26047852

  15. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  16. Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida, Takehito; Ellner, Stephen P; Jones, Laura E; Bohannan, Brendan J. M; Lenski, Richard E; Hairston, Nelson G

    2007-01-01

    Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution. PMID:17803356

  17. Comparative Population Dynamics of Two Closely Related Species Differing in Ploidy Level

    PubMed Central

    Černá, Lucie; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2013-01-01

    Background Many studies compare the population dynamics of single species within multiple habitat types, while much less is known about the differences in population dynamics in closely related species in the same habitat. Additionally, comparisons of the effect of habitat types and species are largely missing. Methodology and Principal Findings We estimated the importance of the habitat type and species for population dynamics of plants. Specifically, we compared the dynamics of two closely related species, the allotetraploid species Anthericum liliago and the diploid species Anthericum ramosum, occurring in the same habitat type. We also compared the dynamics of A. ramosum in two contrasting habitats. We examined three populations per species and habitat type. The results showed that single life history traits as well as the mean population dynamics of A. liliago and A. ramosum from the same habitat type were more similar than the population dynamics of A. ramosum from the two contrasting habitats. Conclusions Our findings suggest that when transferring knowledge regarding population dynamics between populations, we need to take habitat conditions into account, as these conditions appear to be more important than the species involved (ploidy level). However, the two species differ significantly in their overall population growth rates, indicating that the ploidy level has an effect on species performance. In contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies, we observed a higher population growth rate in the diploid species. This is in agreement with the wider range of habitats occupied by the diploid species. PMID:24116057

  18. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  19. Population dynamics of Cyathura carinata (Isopoda) in a eutrophic temperate estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, S. M.; Pardal, M. A.; Lillebø, A. I.; Cardoso, P. G.; Marques, J. C.

    2004-12-01

    From January 1993 to September 1995, Cyathura carinata was a target species of a monitoring programme carried in the Mondego Estuary (Portugal). Being one of the key species of the intertidal mud flats, this isopod was found to be most abundant in a eutrophic area, where seasonal macroalgal blooms usually occur. Its density decreased towards downstream areas, where some Zostera noltii beds exist. At the Mondego Estuary, the present work stated that C. carinata: (a) had a 2-year life span, even though, 80-90% of the individuals died when 1 year old, revealing a strong post-reproduction mortality; (b) produced a single cohort per year; (c) showed continuous growth (with lower rates during winter); (d) evidenced protogynous hermaphroditism and (e) presented a high growth production and a low turnover ratio. A latitudinal gradient reflected in the life features of C. carinata was described. Except for the life span and the frequency of reproduction, which are generally valid for all populations, C. carinata from the Mondego Estuary fitted the characteristics of other populations from the south of Europe. The effects of macroalgal blooms were assessed. Cyathura carinata seemed to temporarily benefit from the presence of macroalgae, due to higher energy resources and more efficient protection against predators. In a long term, algal blooms had negative consequences. It was particularly evident on the recruitment success, which had repercussions in population abundance, and on the secondary production. Therefore, repeated events of algal blooms embracing the distribution areas of C. carinata represent a threat to this species in eutrophic estuaries.

  20. Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria.

    PubMed

    McQueen, Philip G

    2010-08-01

    Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12551-010-0034-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20730124

  1. Spatiotemporal dynamics of insect pest population under viral infection.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Suma; Bhattacharyya, Samit

    2013-07-01

    The interrelationship between pathogen infection and host mobility is of great importance for successful spread of disease in spatial pest population. As spread of infection depends on horizontal transmission of pathogen, there are numerous factors like susceptibility, latent period, host movement that influence overall effectiveness of the control policy. Initiation of new infection cycle depends on density of infected inoculum in the site. So, spatial movement of infected hosts during the course of infection influence the dynamics. Also, infected individuals are more vulnerable to predators and hence production of virus particles in the site depends on predation to some extent. We derive a four dimensional delayed reaction-diffusion model in one spatial dimension and compute the minimum travelling speed of transmission of infection. We show that the minimum speed is sensitive to several parameters of the system. For example, the minimum speed decreases only with increase in delay in lysis process, but otherwise it increases with increase in force of infection, diffusivity of infectives or per capita virus production. A concluding discussion with numerical simulation is presented in the end. PMID:23562890

  2. Fluctuation Relations of Fitness and Information in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Sughiyama, Yuki

    2015-12-01

    Phenotype switching with and without sensing environment is a common strategy of organisms to survive in a fluctuating environment. Understanding the evolutionary advantages of switching and sensing requires a quantitative evaluation of their fitness gain and its fluctuation together with the conditions for the switching and sensing strategies being adapted to a given environment. In this work, by using a pathwise formulation of the population dynamics, we show that the optimal switching strategy is characterized by a consistency condition for time-forward and backward path probabilities. The formulation also clarifies the underlying information-theoretic aspect of selection as a passive information compression. The loss of fitness by a suboptimal strategy is also shown to satisfy a fluctuation relation, which provides us with the information on how environmental fluctuation impacts the advantages of the optimal strategy. These results are naturally extended to the situation that organisms can use an environmental signal by actively sensing the environment. The fluctuation relations of the fitness gain by sensing are derived in which the multivariate mutual information among the phenotype, the environment, and the signal plays the role to quantify the relevant information in the signal for the fitness gain.

  3. Algal culture studies for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radmer, R.; Behrens, P.; Arnett, K.; Gladue, R.; Cox, J.; Lieberman, D.

    1987-01-01

    Microalgae are well-suited as a component of a Closed Environmental Life Support System (CELSS), since they can couple the closely related functions of food production and atmospheric regeneration. The objective was to provide a basis for predicting the response of CELSS algal cultures, and thus the food supply and air regeneration system, to changes in the culture parameters. Scenedesmus growth was measured as a function of light intensity, and the spectral dependence of light absorption by the algae as well as algal respiration in the light were determined as a function of cell concentration. These results were used to test and confirm a mathematical model that describes the productivity of an algal culture in terms of the competing processes of photosynthesis and respiration. The relationship of algal productivity to cell concentration was determined at different carbon dioxide concentrations, temperatures, and light intensities. The maximum productivity achieved by an air-grown culture was found to be within 10% of the computed maximum productivity, indicating that CO2 was very efficiently removed from the gas stream by the algal culture. Measurements of biomass productivity as a function of cell concentration at different light intensities indicated that both the productivity and efficiency of light utilization were greater at higher light intensities.

  4. Evolutionary Game Dynamics in Finite Populations with Strong Selection and Weak Mutation

    PubMed Central

    Fudenberg, Drew; Nowak, Martin A.; Taylor, Christine

    2011-01-01

    We study stochastic game dynamics in finite populations. To this end we extend the classical Moran process to incorporate frequency-dependent selection and mutation. For 2 × 2 games, we give a complete analysis of the long-run behavior when mutation rates are small. For 3 × 3 coordination games, we provide a simple rule to determine which strategy will be selected in large populations. The expected motion in our model resembles the standard replicator dynamics when the population is large, but is qualitatively different when the population is small. Our analysis shows that even in large finite populations the behavior of a replicator-like system can be different from that of the standard replicator dynamics. As an application, we consider selective language dynamics. We determine which language will be spoken in finite large populations. The results have an intuitive interpretation but would not be expected from an analysis of the replicator dynamics. PMID:16987535

  5. Algicidal bacteria in the sea and their impact on algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Mayali, Xavier; Azam, Farooq

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, many reports have revealed the existence of bacteria capable of killing phytoplankton. These algicidal bacteria sometimes increase in abundance concurrently with the decline of algal blooms, suggesting that they may affect algal bloom dynamics. Here, we synthesize the existing knowledge on algicidal bacteria interactions with marine eukaryotic microalgae. We discuss the effectiveness of the current methods to characterize the algicidal phenotype in an ecosystem context. We briefly consider the literature on the phylogenetic identification of algicidal bacteria, their interaction with their algal prey, the characterization of algicidal molecules, and the enumeration of algicidal bacteria during algal blooms. We conclude that, due to limitations of current methods, the evidence for algicidal bacteria causing algal bloom decline is circumstantial. New methods and an ecosystem approach are needed to test hypotheses on the impact of algicidal bacteria in algal bloom dynamics. This will require enlarging the scope of inquiry from its current focus on the potential utility of algicidal bacteria in the control of harmful algal blooms. We suggest conceptualizing bacterial algicidy within the general problem of bacterial regulation of algal community structure in the ocean. PMID:15134248

  6. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  7. DYNAMICS OF NEMATODE POPULATIONS IN CACAO GROWN UNDER TRADIONALLY SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT IN PERUVIAN AMAZON

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Nature of crops and management systems greatly influences population dynamics of parasitic and nonparasitic nematodes in soil. An experiment was undertaken at Tropical Crop Research institute (ICT), Tarapoto, Peru to assess the population dynamics of nematodes in a Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)-Banana ...

  8. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  9. Dynamics of a feline retrovirus (FeLV) in host populations with variable spatial structure.

    PubMed Central

    Fromont, E; Pontier, D; Langlais, M

    1998-01-01

    The predictions of epidemic models are remarkably affected by the underlying assumptions concerning host population dynamics and the relation between host density and disease transmission. Furthermore, hypotheses underlying distinct models are rarely tested. Domestic cats (Felis catus) can be used to compare models and test their predictions, because cat populations show variable spatial structure that probably results in variability in the relation between density and disease transmission. Cat populations also exhibit various dynamics. We compare four epidemiological models of Feline Leukaemia Virus (FeLV). We use two different incidence terms, i.e. proportionate mixing and pseudo-mass action. Population dynamics are modelled as logistic or exponential growth. Compared with proportionate mixing, mass action incidence with logistic growth results in a threshold population size under which the virus cannot persist in the population. Exponential growth of host populations results in systems where FeLV persistence at a steady prevalence and depression of host population growth are biologically unlikely to occur. Predictions of our models account for presently available data on FeLV dynamics in various populations of cats. Thus, host population dynamics and spatial structure can be determinant parameters in parasite transmission, host population depression, and disease control. PMID:9684375

  10. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  11. [Nonlinear effects on population dynamics related to age structure and fishery impact].

    PubMed

    Frisman, E Ia; Last, E V

    2005-01-01

    Population dynamics of commercial fish populations with an age structure was studied by the example of salmons. The relationship between the amount of catch on fishing efforts and total abundance of a stock fished is described by a nonlinear "trophic" function. Special attention is given to the analysis of population dynamics stability under conditions for maximum profit. Simulation results are compared to statistical data on the catch of Pacific salmon species in the Bering Sea. PMID:16240747

  12. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  13. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  14. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination. PMID:23923503

  15. Population dynamics of the estuarine isopod Sphaeroma rugicauda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heath, David J.; Khazaeli, Aziz A.

    1985-01-01

    Population density, spatial distribution, size distribution, sex ratio and fecundity were studied in a population over a three-year period. Young are produced in the summer, overwinter, reproduce and then die. Population densities decrease due to mortality from March to June and increase due to natality from July to September. Climate has a significant effect on population density. An abnormally warm summer (1976) led to earlier breeding, reduced fecundity, faster growth and higher mortality of juveniles. This led to fewer, larger, breeding adults in 1977. Two years which were climatically similar showed similar population trends. Egg and offspring number were positively correlated with female size but differed between years. Brood pouch mortality was estimated at 17%. Marked changes in population sex ratio were shown to be artefacts due to differences in swimming activity of the sexes.

  16. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  17. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  18. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  19. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COMPARISON OF ALGAL BIODIVERSITY AND BENTHIC COVER AT GARDNER PINNACLES, NORTHWESTERN HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS(1).

    PubMed

    Vroom, Peter S; Timmers, Molly A V

    2009-04-01

    Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument in the Northwestern Hawai`ian Islands is the second largest marine protected area in the world, providing an opportunity for scientists to understand natural ecosystem fluctuations in subtropical marine communities with little anthropogenic impact. Gardner Pinnacles is composed of two emergent basaltic rocks and has the smallest land area of any island in the Northwestern Hawai`ian Island chain but has among the largest submerged reef area. Gardner Pinnacles is also among the least anthropogenically impacted island in the Hawai`ian Archipelago, although a thriving lobster and bottomfish industry existed in the area for many years. This study assesses nearshore algal biodiversity and percent cover at Gardner Pinnacles to examine interannual differences in community dynamics and places them in an ecosystem context by also examining associated invertebrate and fish communities. Biodiversity surveys increased the number of known eukaryotic algal species occurring in marine environments immediately adjacent to the emergent portion of Gardner Pinnacles from 31 to 77. Algal percent cover, specifically populations of the green alga Microdictyon setchellianum M. Howe, varied dramatically between sampling years, possibly in response to seasonal differences. Towed-diver surveys revealed that macroalgae covered >90% of the substrate during the 2003 sampling period but returned to 2000 levels (1%-35% cover) by 2004 without any detectable damage to other reef organisms. Fish communities remained statistically similar between sampling years, and percent cover of live coral around the island did not exceed 7%. PMID:27033812

  20. A BASIC Program for Use in Teaching Population Dynamics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kidd, N. A. C.

    1984-01-01

    Describes an interactive simulation model which can be used to demonstrate population growth with discrete or overlapping populations and the effects of random, constant, or density-dependent mortality. The program listing (for Commodore PET 4032 microcomputer) is included. (Author/DH)

  1. q-deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, J.

    2014-07-01

    The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized.

  2. An Application of Lagrangian Coherent Structures to Harmful Algal Blooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Kocak, H.

    2009-04-01

    Karenia brevis is present in low concentrations in vast areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). This toxic dinoflagellate sporadically develops blooms anywhere in the GoM, except in the southern portion of West Florida Shelf (WFS). There, these harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent events whose frequency and intensity are increasing. HABs on the WFS are usually only evident once they have achieved high concentrations that can be detected by observation of discolored water, which may be apparent in satellite imagery; by ecological problems such as fish kills; or human health problems. Because the early development stages of HABs are usually not detected, there is limited understanding of the environmental conditions that lead to their development. Analysis of simulated surface ocean currents reveals the presence of a persistent large-scale Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS) on the southern portion of the WFS. A LCS can be regarded as a distinguished material line which divides immiscible fluid regions with distinct advection properties. Consistent with satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, this LCS on the WFS constitutes a cross-shelf barrier for the lateral transport of passive tracers. We hypothesize that such a LCS provides favorable conditions for the development of HABs. LCSs are also employed to trace the early location of an observed HAB on the WFS. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of this HAB. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by simulated surface ocean currents. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located near shore and likely due to land runoff.

  3. Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Gunther Sebastian; Johannesen, Jes; Griebeler, Eva Maria

    2016-05-01

    Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200-year-old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813-1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923-1940) during the mid-19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant-sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D-loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population. PMID:27096075

  4. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  5. [The relationship between population dynamics and the process of development: an interdependence requiring the definition of population policies].

    PubMed

    1989-01-01

    The case of Senegal is used to illustrate the impact of population dynamics on the economic development of a country and the process of creating a population policy. 1 of the 6 principles of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action concerning African population and autonomous development was the interdependence between population and development, but interest in the problem was only sporadic until the deepening of the economic crisis. Population growth is now regarded as a major constraint on improvement of welfare for the population. The population of the Sahel countries has almost doubled in the past 2 decades as a consequence of very high fertility rates and declining mortality rates. About 44% of the Sahel population is under 15 years old and only about 53% is aged 15-64. The population is unequally distributed and the proportion urban increased from 18 to 23% between 1982-85. The general opinion is that the African population is increasing more rapidly than available resources. From 1973-83, Senegal's gross national product increased by 2.2%/year on average, less than the population increase of 2.5%. Cereal production increased by 1%/year between 1973-81. Investments in agriculture have declined continuously since 1973. Cereal needs are on the order of 6.69 million tons, while production is only 4.4 million tons. According to the World Bank the literacy rate for 5 Sahel countries was only 15% in 1982, and only 35% of school aged children are enrolled. The constant increase of population is also putting pressure on health services. In response to these problems, Senegal developed its population policy in 3 phases. In the 1st phase, 3 commissions and a working group carried out research and documentation around the country, producing sectorial documents. In the 2nd phase, workshops and seminars were held for the critical examination of the sectorial documents, culminating in presentation of a synthesis to the National Commission on Population and to the

  6. Algal taxonomy forum: Algal Taxonomist, Let Serendipity Reign!

    PubMed

    Druehl, Louis

    2013-04-01

    The publication of a mini-review by Olivier De Clerck et al. in this issue of the Journal of Phycology presented an opportunity to open a dialogue on challenges faced by contemporary algal taxonomists. The Editorial Office solicited the following two additional contributions in response to De Clerck et al.'s paper; the responses were edited solely for clarity, space and format. PMID:27008510

  7. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  8. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir.

    PubMed

    Freitas, J R; Bedê, L C; De Marco Júnior, P; Rocha, L A; Santos, M B

    1987-01-01

    An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/m2; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line); monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species. PMID:3509186

  9. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  10. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    SciTech Connect

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  11. Population dynamics of the endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curnutt, J.L.; Mayer, A.L.; Brooks, T.M.; Manne, L.; Bass, O.L., Jr.; Fleming, D.M.; Philip, Nott M.; Pimm, S.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Cape Sable seaside-sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) has disappeared from its only known breeding areas episodically since its discovery early this century. Systematic surveys across its range in the southern Everglades find the sparrow's range to be fragmented into six subpopulations. The sparrow population decreased by 58% between 1992 and 1995, with the near extinction of the western half of the population and the temporary local extinction of some eastern populations. Other similar grassland sparrows have populations that vary considerably from year to year. Yet the decline in the western subpopulation and the local extinction of some of the peripheral populations cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Hurricane Andrew passed over several subpopulations prior to the particularly poor year of 1993. However, the geographical and temporal patterns of subpopulation decline are not consistent with what would be expected following a hurricane. Frequent fires prevent successful breeding as does flooding during the breeding season. Better management can prevent frequent fires and episodic flooding. However, the long-term survival of the sparrow depends on managing the unanticipated risks that attend its small, fragmented population.

  12. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  13. Algal biofuels: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Leite, Gustavo B; Abdelaziz, Ahmed E M; Hallenbeck, Patrick C

    2013-10-01

    Biodiesel production using microalgae is attractive in a number of respects. Here a number of pros and cons to using microalgae for biofuels production are reviewed. Algal cultivation can be carried out using non-arable land and non-potable water with simple nutrient supply. In addition, algal biomass productivities are much higher than those of vascular plants and the extractable content of lipids that can be usefully converted to biodiesel, triacylglycerols (TAGs) can be much higher than that of the oil seeds now used for first generation biodiesel. On the other hand, practical, cost-effective production of biofuels from microalgae requires that a number of obstacles be overcome. These include the development of low-cost, effective growth systems, efficient and energy saving harvesting techniques, and methods for oil extraction and conversion that are environmentally benign and cost-effective. Promising recent advances in these areas are highlighted. PMID:23499181

  14. Algal blooms and public health

    SciTech Connect

    Epstein, P.R. . Harvard Medical School)

    1993-06-01

    Alterations in coastal ecology are expanding the geographic extent, frequency, magnitude, and species complexity'' of algal blooms throughout the world, increasing the threat of fish and shellfish poisonings, anoxia in marine nurseries, and of cholera. The World Health Organization and members of the medical profession have described the potential health effects of global climate change. They warn of the consequences of increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) rays and of warming: the possible damage to agriculture and nutrition, and the impact on habitats which may alter the distribution of vector-borne and water-based infectious diseases. Algal growth due to increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) and warming are already affecting marine microflora and aquatic plants; and there is now clear evidence that marine organisms are a reservoir for enteric pathogens. The pattern of cholera in the Western Hemisphere suggests that environmental changes have already begun to influence the epidemiology of this infectious disease. 106 refs.

  15. An overview of the population dynamics in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Arshat, H; Tey Nai Peng

    1988-06-01

    Between 1900 and 1985 the population of Malaysia has increased from 2 million to 16 million. Before World War II most of the growth was due to immigration from China and India; after World War II it was due to natural increase. The crude birth rate appears to be leveling off at about 31.3 and the crude death rate at 5.3. At the current rate of growth the total population will be about 32 million by 2015. The proportion of urban population increased from 27% in 1979 to 34% in 1980. In 1980 83% of the population lived in Peninsular Malaysia (39% of the land area), and 17% lived in Sabah and Sarawak (61% of the land area). Population density ranges from 12 persons per square kilometer in Sarawak to 4521 in the Federal Republic of Kuala Lumpur. The median age of the population is 17.4 years; 40% are under 14, and 3.6% are over 65. In most age groups there are more women than men. The annual growth rate for Malays is higher than for Chinese and Indians, and Malays constituted 55% of the population in 1980. 34% are Chinese and 10% are Indian. Total fertility rate declined from 68/1000 in 1957 to 39/1000 in 1985. Malay fertility (4.8 children) is higher than either Indian (2.9) or Chinese (2.7) Malay fertility has been increasing while that of Indians and Chinese is decreasing due to contraception. Also, among all 3 groups age at marriage has increased. Data from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey show that the differential fertility of the 3 groups is due largely to rural/urban distribution, education, and work patterns. Ideal family size, according to the survey, is 4.8. The National Population and Family Development Program would like to achieve a growth rate of 2%/year, and family planning knowledge has become virtually universal. KAP surveys show that by 1984 contraceptive prevalence was 51%; however 42% of all eligible women were using unreliable methods. In terms of efficient methods, contraceptive prevalence rate was 16% for Malays, 47% for Chinese

  16. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Lian-Ao; Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul; Egusquiza, Inigo L.

    2010-09-15

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time {tau}.

  17. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    PubMed

    Loughry, William J; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M; Oli, Madan K

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current, reproduction

  18. Population Dynamics and Range Expansion in Nine-Banded Armadillos

    PubMed Central

    Loughry, William J.; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; McDonough, Colleen M.; Oli, Madan K.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992–2006) of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years) was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current

  19. A Quantative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population Dynamics

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathway Linking Aromatase Inhibition in Fathead Minnows with Population DynamicsAn adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a qualitative description linking a molecular initiating event (MIE) with measureable key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). ...

  20. Population dynamics of flaviviruses revealed by molecular phylogenies.

    PubMed Central

    Zanotto, P M; Gould, E A; Gao, G F; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

    1996-01-01

    The phylogeny of 123 complete envelope gene sequences was reconstructed in order to understand the evolution of tick- and mosquito-borne flaviviruses. An analysis of phylogenetic tree structure reveals a continual and asymmetric branching process in the tick-borne flaviviruses, compared with an explosive radiation in the last 200 years in viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. The distinction between these two viral groups probably reflects differences in modes of dispersal, propagation, and changes in the size of host populations. The most serious implication of this work is that growing human populations are being exposed to an expanding range of increasingly diverse viral strains. PMID:8570593

  1. Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krehbiel, Joel David

    Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

  2. Fragmentation and groundwater supply as major drivers of algal and plant diversity and relative cover dynamics along a highly modified lowland river.

    PubMed

    Bolpagni, Rossano; Racchetti, Erica; Laini, Alex

    2016-10-15

    Algae and aquatic vascular plants were investigated along a highly modified medium-sized lowland river (Oglio River, northern Italy). We focused on the role of fragmentation and groundwater supply in driving macrophyte assemblages, paying particular attention to soft-bodied benthic algae. Four different a priori stretch types (dammed, groundwater-dependent, potamal and rhithral) were identified along the river longitudinal gradient as proxies of river hydrology and relative human-induced flow alterations. Over three years (2009-2011), taxa diversity, cover data, spatial and temporal dynamics and indicator and detector species were compared with physical, chemical and hydrological variables at 30 different river sites. Data was explored by indicator species analysis, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and PROTEST. A total of 88 taxa, of which 36 were algae (equal to 40.9% of the total diversity), 3 bryophytes (3.4%) and 49 vascular plants (55.7%), were recorded. Taxa diversity peaked at the groundwater-dependent sites for both algae and vascular plants (with a mean of 12.8±2.7 and 12.7±4.8 taxa per site, respectively). Algae cover values were one order of magnitude higher than those of vascular plants (with an overall mean of 37.0±24.2% per site). The vascular plants counterbalanced the algae coverage values exclusively at the dammed sites (27.6±23.2% vs 28.2±13.9%, respectively). A clear zonation of communities emerged from the multivariate analysis, which revealed taxa rearrangements that largely overlapped the river stretch types. Inter-annual comparisons confirmed the strong stability of the primary producer communities in the short term (three years). Our work substantiates the pivotal role played by fragmentation and hydrology, in addition to groundwater, in structuring riverine macrophyte communities. Further investigations are needed to resolve the uncertainty surrounding the non-linear responses of macrophytes to the physical and chemical conditions

  3. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  4. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  5. Demographic heterogeneity and the dynamics of open populations.

    PubMed

    Noonburg, Erik G; Chen, Adam; Shima, Jeffrey S; Swearer, Stephen E

    2015-05-01

    Individuals vary in their phenotype and propensity for growth and survival, but the demographic consequences of this remain poorly understood. We extend previous theoretical work on benthic marine populations and formulate a new model to evaluate how demographic heterogeneity among newly settled reef fish affects population stability. We simulated settlement, growth, and mortality of a small reef fish, the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillurn) in an open "subpopulation" using a delay-differential equation model framework. We modeled demographic heterogeneity with a discrete number of "quality" types, motivated by our previous empirical observations: individuals were either "high quality" (immigrants from nearby subpopulations) or "low quality" (immigrants from distant subpopulations); in our model, quality influences how quickly individuals develop at a given competitor density. Our results demonstrate how demographic heterogeneity and juvenile competition interact to qualitatively alter the effects of settlement on population stability. Specifically, our model suggests that a mixture of quality types can stabilize the equilibrium even when equal settlement of either type alone would result in an unstable equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of among-individual variation in a metapopulation context, and suggest that in systems where dispersal influences individual quality, connectivity may serve to stabilize local populations. PMID:26236830

  6. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  7. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE CACTUS MOTH, CACTOBLASTIS CACTORUM IN FLORIDA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Field populations of the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum were surveyed weekly beginning in July 2006. We sampled the native cactus, Opuntia stricta visually to determine the densities and development of immature stages. Adult males were collected using a synthetic pheromone and a sticky wing trap...

  8. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    PubMed

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  9. Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Edmund M.; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  10. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  11. Mechanical algal disruption for efficient biodiesel extraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krehbiel, Joel David

    Biodiesel from algae provides several benefits over current biodiesel feedstocks, but the energy requirements of processing algae into a useable fuel are currently so high as to be prohibitive. One route to improving this is via disruption of the cells prior to lipid extraction, which can significantly increase energy recovery. Unfortunately, several obvious disruption techniques require more energy than can be gained. This dissertation examines the use of microbubbles to improve mechanical disruption of algal cells using experimental, theoretical, and computational methods. New laboratory experiments show that effective ultrasonic disruption of algae is achieved by adding microbubbles to an algal solution. The configuration studied flows the solution through a tube and insonifies a small section with a high-pressure ultrasound wave. Previous biomedical research has shown effective cell membrane damage on animal cells with similar methods, but the present research is the first to extend such study to algal cells. Results indicate that disruption increases with peak negative pressure between 1.90 and 3.07 MPa and with microbubble concentration up to 12.5 x 107 bubbles/ml. Energy estimates of this process suggest that it requires only one-fourth the currently most-efficient laboratory-scale disruption process. Estimates of the radius near each bubble that causes disruption (i.e. the disruption radius) suggest that it increases with peak negative pressure and is near 9--20 microm for all cases tested. It is anticipated that these procedures can be designed for better efficiency and efficacy, which will be facilitated by identifying the root mechanisms of the bubble-induced disruption. We therefore examine whether bubble expansion alone creates sufficient cell deformation for cell rupture. The spherically-symmetric Marmottant model for bubble dynamics allows estimation of the flow regime under experimental conditions. Bubble expansion is modeled as a point source of

  12. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  13. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis. PMID:27508413

  14. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Porčić, Marko; Blagojević, Tamara; Stefanović, Sofija

    2016-01-01

    The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis. PMID:27508413

  15. When stable-stage equilibrium is unlikely: integrating transient population dynamics improves asymptotic methods

    PubMed Central

    Tremblay, Raymond L.; Raventos, Josep; Ackerman, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. Methods Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. Key Results It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. Conclusions Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics

  16. A life-history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Koons, David N; Iles, David T; Schaub, Michael; Caswell, Hal

    2016-09-01

    Current understanding of life-history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non-stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics. PMID:27401966

  17. Quantitative high-throughput population dynamics in continuous-culture by automated microscopy.

    PubMed

    Merritt, Jason; Kuehn, Seppe

    2016-01-01

    We present a high-throughput method to measure abundance dynamics in microbial communities sustained in continuous-culture. Our method uses custom epi-fluorescence microscopes to automatically image single cells drawn from a continuously-cultured population while precisely controlling culture conditions. For clonal populations of Escherichia coli our instrument reveals history-dependent resilience and growth rate dependent aggregation. PMID:27616752

  18. Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Aims: To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Methods and Results: Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa, and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population stru...

  19. Mortality and Population Dynamics of Bemisia tabaci within a Multi-Crop System

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The population dynamics of mobile polyphagous pests is governed by a complex set of interacting factors that involve multiple host-plants, seasonality, movement and demography. Bemisia tabaci is a multivoltine insect with no diapause that maintains population continuity by moving from one host to a...

  20. Bacterial population structure and dynamics during the development of almond drupes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Aims: To describe the bacterial populations and their dynamics during the development of almond drupes. Methods and Results: We examined 16S rRNA gene libraries derived from the bacterial populations on almond drupes at three stages of development: 1) when the drupes were full sized, but before embr...

  1. Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

  2. The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

  3. Grazing effects by Nereis diversicolor on development and growth of green algal mats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engelsen, Anna; Pihl, Leif

    2008-08-01

    Nereis diversicolor is generally considered to be a predator and deposit feeder, but have also been found to graze on benthic algae in shallow coastal areas. In this study we investigated the grazing effects on the development and growth of green algae, Ulva spp. Algal growth was studied in an experiment including two levels of sediment thickness; 100 mm sediment including macrofauna and 5 mm sediment without macrofauna, and three treatments of varying algal biomass; sediment with propagules, sediment with low algal biomass (120 g dry weight (dwt) m - 2 ) and sediment with high algal biomass (240 g dwt m - 2 ). In the 100 mm sediment, with a natural population of macrofauna, N. diversicolor was the dominating (60% of total biomass) species. After three weeks of experimentation the result showed that N. diversicolor was able to prevent initial algal growth, affect growth capacity and also partly reduce full-grown algal mats. The weight of N. diversicolor was significantly higher for polychaetes in treatments with algae added compared to non-algal treatments. There were also indications that a rich nutrient supply per algae biomass counteracted the grazing capacity of N. diversicolor.

  4. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

  5. Self-organized populations interacting under pursuit-evasion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goudon, Thierry; Nkonga, Boniface; Rascle, Michel; Ribot, Magali

    2015-06-01

    We discuss the modeling of interacting populations through pursuit-evasion-or attraction-repulsion-principles : preys try to escape chasers, chasers are attracted by the presence of preys. We construct a hierarchy of models, ranging from ODEs systems with finite numbers of individuals of each population, to hydrodynamic systems. First-order macroscopic models look like generalized "two-species Keller-Segel equations". But, due to cross-interactions, we can show that the system does not exhibit any blow up phenomena in finite time. We also obtain second-order models, that have the form of systems of balance laws, derived from kinetic models. We bring out a few remarkable features of the models based either on mathematical analysis or numerical simulations.

  6. Two-population dynamics in a growing network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan

    2012-02-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  7. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    SciTech Connect

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy; Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S.; Shara, Michael M.; Dotter, Aaron; Fahlman, Gregory G.; Rich, R. Michael E-mail: heyl@phas.ubc.ca E-mail: jkalarai@stsci.edu E-mail: aaron.dotter@gmail.com E-mail: rmr@astro.ucla.edu

    2013-07-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  8. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Maria L.; Gómez, Beatriz L.; Theodoro, Raquel C.; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M.; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M.; Felipe, Maria S. S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Methodology/Principal Findings Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. Conclusions/Significance At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this

  9. Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

  10. Air pollutant production by algal cell cultures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fong, F.; Funkhouser, E. A.

    1982-01-01

    The production of phytotoxic air pollutants by cultures of Chlorella vulgaris and Euglena gracilis is considered. Algal and plant culture systems, a fumigation system, and ethylene, ethane, cyanide, and nitrogen oxides assays are discussed. Bean, tobacco, mustard green, cantaloupe and wheat plants all showed injury when fumigated with algal gases for 4 hours. Only coleus plants showed any resistance to the gases. It is found that a closed or recycled air effluent system does not produce plant injury from algal air pollutants.

  11. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  12. [The population of Latin America: population dynamics from 1990 to 2050].

    PubMed

    Chackiel, J

    1992-01-01

    Past population projections have proven deficient in predicting demographic changes and their intensity. Projections did not envision a decline of nearly 40% in Latin American fertility in two decades. The projections in this work are cautious and based primarily on past trends and the expected continuation of a process leading eventually to replacement level fertility. The economic crisis of the 1980s has generated pessimism regarding the continuation of fertility declines based on economic progress. For the projection, the Latin American countries were classified into four stages of demographic transition. Most Latin American countries, including the three most populated, were considered to be in the third stage, characterized by fertility and mortality in full transition. A table of demographic indicators contains projections for the years 2010, 2025, and 2050 for all of Latin America and for Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, which are considered to represent the four stages of transition. Latin America as a whole in 1990 had a population of 430,182,000, with a total fertility rate of 3.1, life expectancy at birth of 69 years, and natural increase rate of 2.1%. 36% of the population was under 15 years old. In 2010, 2025, and 2050, respectively, the population is projected to increase to 587 million, 686 million, and 785 million; the total fertility rate to decline to 2.3, 2.1, and 2.1; life expectancy at birth to increase to 72 years, 74 years, and 74 years, and the natural increase rate to decline to 1.2, 0.8, and 0.3%. The proportion of the population under 15 will decline to 28% in 2010, 24% in 2025, and 21% in 2050. PMID:12158077

  13. Estimation of statistical binding properties of ligand population during in vitro selection based on population dynamics theory.

    PubMed

    Aita, Takuyo; Nishigaki, Koichi; Husimi, Yuzuru

    2014-01-01

    During in vitro selection process, it is very valuable to monitor the binding properties of the ligand population in real time, particularly the population average of the association constant in the population. If this monitoring can be realized, the selection process can be controlled in a rational way. In this paper, we present a simple method to estimate the binding properties of the ligand population during in vitro selection. The framework of the method is as follows. First, the number of all the collected ligand molecules, which are eluted after incubation and washing, is measured. Ideally, this number corresponds to the number of all the ligand molecules bound with the target-receptor or other materials in a test tube. This measurement is performed through several successive rounds of selection. Second, the measured numbers of molecules are subjected to a theoretical analysis, based on the mathematical theory of population dynamics in the selection process. Then, we can estimate the probability density of the binding free energy in the ligand population. The validity of our method was confirmed by several computer simulations based on a physicochemical model. PMID:24239675

  14. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Christopher N.; Brook, Barry W.

    2011-01-01

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  15. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene. PMID:21561972

  16. Species with more volatile population dynamics are differentially impacted by weather

    PubMed Central

    Harrison, Joshua G.; Shapiro, Arthur M.; Espeset, Anne E.; Nice, Christopher C.; Jahner, Joshua P.; Forister, Matthew L.

    2015-01-01

    Climatic variation has been invoked as an explanation of population dynamics for a variety of taxa. Much work investigating the link between climatic forcings and population fluctuation uses single-taxon case studies. Here, we conduct comparative analyses of a multi-decadal dataset describing population dynamics of 50 co-occurring butterfly species at 10 sites in Northern California. Specifically, we explore the potential commonality of response to weather among species that encompass a gradient of population dynamics via a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework. Results of this analysis demonstrate that certain weather conditions impact volatile, or irruptive, species differently as compared with relatively stable species. Notably, precipitation-related variables, including indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have a more pronounced impact on the most volatile species. We hypothesize that these variables influence vegetation resource availability, and thus indirectly influence population dynamics of volatile taxa. As one of the first studies to show a common influence of weather among taxa with similar population dynamics, the results presented here suggest new lines of research in the field of biotic–abiotic interactions. PMID:25672998

  17. Species with more volatile population dynamics are differentially impacted by weather.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Joshua G; Shapiro, Arthur M; Espeset, Anne E; Nice, Christopher C; Jahner, Joshua P; Forister, Matthew L

    2015-02-01

    Climatic variation has been invoked as an explanation of population dynamics for a variety of taxa. Much work investigating the link between climatic forcings and population fluctuation uses single-taxon case studies. Here, we conduct comparative analyses of a multi-decadal dataset describing population dynamics of 50 co-occurring butterfly species at 10 sites in Northern California. Specifically, we explore the potential commonality of response to weather among species that encompass a gradient of population dynamics via a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework. Results of this analysis demonstrate that certain weather conditions impact volatile, or irruptive, species differently as compared with relatively stable species. Notably, precipitation-related variables, including indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have a more pronounced impact on the most volatile species. We hypothesize that these variables influence vegetation resource availability, and thus indirectly influence population dynamics of volatile taxa. As one of the first studies to show a common influence of weather among taxa with similar population dynamics, the results presented here suggest new lines of research in the field of biotic-abiotic interactions. PMID:25672998

  18. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  19. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  20. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. PMID:26747638

  1. Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action. PMID:26151588

  2. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable. PMID:22812118

  3. Generating a dynamic synthetic population--using an age-structured two-sex model for household dynamics.

    PubMed

    Namazi-Rad, M; Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, P; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, P; Perez, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

  4. Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

    PubMed Central

    Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

  5. Role of seasonality on predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Levy, Dorian; Harrington, Heather A; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The role of seasonality on predator-prey interactions in the presence of a resource subsidy is examined using a system of non-autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The problem is motivated by the Arctic, inhabited by the ecological system of arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carrion (subsidy). We construct two nonlinear, nonautonomous systems of ODEs named the Primary Model, and the n-Patch Model. The Primary Model considers spatial factors implicitly, and the n-Patch Model considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We establish the boundedness of the dynamics, as well as the necessity of sufficiently nutritional food for the survival of the predator. We investigate the importance of including the resource subsidy explicitly in the model, and the importance of accounting for predator mortality during migration. We find a variety of non-equilibrium dynamics for both systems, obtaining both limit cycles and chaotic oscillations. We were then able to discuss relevant implications for biologically interesting predator-prey systems including subsidy under seasonal effects. Notably, we can observe the extinction or persistence of a species when the corresponding autonomous system might predict the opposite. PMID:26916622

  6. Simulating pH effects in an algal-growth hydrodynamics model(1).

    PubMed

    James, Scott C; Janardhanam, Vijayasarathi; Hanson, David T

    2013-06-01

    Models and numerical simulations are relatively inexpensive tools that can be used to enhance economic competitiveness through operation and system optimization to minimize energy and resource consumption, while maximizing algal oil yield. This work uses modified versions of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) in conjunction with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers' water-quality code (CE-QUAL) to simulate flow hydrodynamics coupled to algal growth kinetics. The model allows the flexibility of manipulating a host of variables associated with algal growth such as temperature, light intensity, and nutrient availability. pH of the medium is a newly added operational parameter governing algal growth that affects algal photosynthesis, differential availability of inorganic forms of carbon, enzyme activity in algae cell walls, and oil production rates. A single-layer algal-growth/hydrodynamic model without pH limitation was verified by comparing solution curves of algal biomass and phosphorus concentrations to an analytical solution. Media pH, now included in the model as a growth-limiting factor, can be entered as a measured value or calculated based on CO2 concentrations. Upon adding the ability to limit growth due to pH, physically reasonable results have been obtained from the model both with and without pH limitation. When the model was used to simulate algal growth from a pond experiment in the greenhouse, a least-squares fitting technique yielded a maximum algal production (subsequently modulated by limitation factors) of 1.05 d(-1) . Overall, the measured and simulated biomass concentrations in the greenhouse pond were in close agreement. PMID:27007048

  7. Exploitation of chemical signaling by parasitoids: impact on host population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lof, Marjolein E; De Gee, Maarten; Dicke, Marcel; Gort, Gerrit; Hemerik, Lia

    2013-06-01

    Chemical information mediates species interactions in a wide range of organisms. Yet, the effect of chemical information on population dynamics is rarely addressed. We designed a spatio-temporal parasitoid--host model to investigate the population dynamics when both the insect host and the parasitic wasp that attacks it can respond to chemical information. The host species, Drosophila melanogaster, uses food odors and aggregation pheromone to find a suitable resource for reproduction. The larval parasitoid, Leptopilina heterotoma, uses these same odors to find its hosts. We show that when parasitoids can respond to food odors, this negatively affects fruit fly population growth. However, extra parasitoid responsiveness to aggregation pheromone does not affect fruit fly population growth. Our results indicate that the use of the aggregation pheromone by D. melanogaster does not lead to an increased risk of parasitism. Moreover, the use of aggregation pheromone by the host enhances its population growth and enables it to persist at higher parasitoid densities. PMID:23689875

  8. Optimum survival strategies against zombie infestations - a population dynamics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mota, Bruno

    2014-03-01

    We model a zombie infestation by three coupled ODEs that jointly describe the time evolution of three populations: regular humans, zombies, and survivors (humans that have survived at least one zombie encounter). This can be generalized to take into account more levels of expertise and/or skill degradation. We compute the fixed points, and stability thereof, that correspond to one of three possible outcomes: human extinction, zombie extermination or, if one allows for a human non-zero birth-rate, co-habitation. We obtain analytically the optimum strategy for humans in terms of the model's parameters (essentially, whether to flee and hide, or fight). Zombies notwithstanding, this can also be seen as a toy model for infections of immune system cells, such as CD4+ T cells in AIDS, and macrophages in tuberculosis, whereby cells are both the target of infection, and mediate the acquired immunity response against the same infection. I thank FAPERJ for financial support.

  9. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  10. Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.

    PubMed

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  11. Effects of egg oiling on larid productivity and population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, S.J.; Malecki, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    In this study, oil was applied to naturally incubated great black-backed gull (Larus marinus) and herring gull (L. argentatus) eggs, and its effects on reproductive success were assessed. Embryo survival was inversely proportional to the quantity of petroleum applied to eggshell surfaces. Dose responses, however, were dependent on embryonic age at the time of treatment. Eggs of either species, treated with 10-20 mu l of No. 2 fuel oil 4-8 days after laying, experienced significant reductions in hatching success. Embryos oiled past the midpoint of the 28-day incubation period were insensitive to as much as 100 mu l of petroleum. Fuel oil weathered outdoors for several weeks was as toxic as fresh oil to larid embryos. Only under severe conditions (e.g., large doses of petroleum contaminating young embryos) could egg oiling have a significant impact upon populations of the herring gull and species with similar life-history characteristics.

  12. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  13. Efficient solution of an inverse problem in cell population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groh, Andreas; Krebs, Jochen; Wagner, Mathias

    2011-06-01

    In this paper, a size-structured model for cell division is examined and the question of determining the division (birth) rate from a measurable stable size distribution of the population is addressed. This inverse problem can be formulated as a differential-dilation equation. We propose a novel solution scheme based on mollification. The method of approximate inverse allows us to shift the derivative from the data to a precomputable reconstruction kernel. To comprise all available a priori information, a presmoothing step based on regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces is introduced. We establish an error theory for the emerging algorithm, prove convergence and deduce a parameter strategy. The results are substantiated with extensive numerical tests both for artificial and real data based on proliferating tumor cells.

  14. Bursting dynamics in a population of oscillatory and excitable Josephson junctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hens, Chittaranjan; Pal, Pinaki; Dana, Syamal K.

    2015-08-01

    We report an emergent bursting dynamics in a globally coupled network of mixed population of oscillatory and excitable Josephson junctions. The resistive-capacitive shunted junction (RCSJ) model of the superconducting device is considered for this study. We focus on the parameter regime of the junction where its dynamics is governed by the saddle-node on invariant circle (SNIC) bifurcation. For a coupling value above a threshold, the network splits into two clusters when a reductionism approach is applied to reproduce the bursting behavior of the large network. The excitable junctions effectively induce a slow dynamics on the oscillatory units to generate parabolic bursting in a broad parameter space. We reproduce the bursting dynamics in a mixed population of dynamical nodes of the Morris-Lecar model.

  15. Population dynamics and ecology of Arcobacter in sewage

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Jenny C.; Levican, Arturo; Figueras, María J.; McLellan, Sandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Arcobacter species are highly abundant in sewage where they often comprise approximately 5–11% of the bacterial community. Oligotyping of sequences amplified from the V4V5 region of the 16S rRNA gene revealed Arcobacter populations from different cities were similar and dominated by 1–3 members, with extremely high microdiversity in the minor members. Overall, nine subgroups within the Arcobacter genus accounted for >80% of the total Arcobacter sequences in all samples analyzed. The distribution of oligotypes varied by both sample site and temperature, with samples from the same site generally being more similar to each other than other sites. Seven oligotypes matched with 100% identity to characterized Arcobacter species, but the remaining 19 abundant oligotypes appear to be unknown species. Sequences representing the two most abundant oligotypes matched exactly to the reference strains for A. cryaerophilus group 1B (CCUG 17802) and group 1A (CCUG 17801T), respectively. Oligotype 1 showed generally lower relative abundance in colder samples and higher relative abundance in warmer samples; the converse was true for Oligotype 2. Ten other oligotypes had significant positive or negative correlations between temperature and proportion in samples as well. The oligotype that corresponded to A. butzleri, the Arcobacter species most commonly isolated by culturing in sewage studies, was only the eleventh most abundant oligotype. This work suggests that Arcobacter populations within sewer infrastructure are modulated by temperature. Furthermore, current culturing methods used for identification of Arcobacter fail to identify some abundant members of the community and may underestimate the presence of species with affinities for growth at lower temperatures. Understanding the ecological factors that affect the survival and growth of Arcobacter spp. in sewer infrastructure may better inform the risks associated with these emerging pathogens. PMID:25426103

  16. Effects of Infection on Honey Bee Population Dynamics: A Model

    PubMed Central

    Betti, Matt I.; Wahl, Lindi M.; Zamir, Mair

    2014-01-01

    We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees. PMID:25329468

  17. Enhancement of Chlorophyll Concentration and Growing Harmful Algal Bloom Along the California Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aceves, Joselyn; Singh, Ramesh

    2016-07-01

    We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data at different locations, Cal Poly, Goleta, Newport, Santa Monica, and Scripps piers and Monterey, Stearns and Santa Cruz wharfs along the California coast for the period 2008-2015. The sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentrations derived from satellite data are analyzed together with ground observations of nitrogen, phosphorus, domoic acids and harmful algal blooms. The frequency of harmful algal blooms are found to increase in recent years depending upon the enhancement of chlorophyll concentrations and the discharges along the coast and dynamics of the sea surface temperature. The frequency of harmful algal blooms is higher in the northern California compared to southern California. The anthropogenic activities along the coast have increased which are associated with the forest fires and long range transport of dusts from Asia. The aerosol optical depth derived from satellite data during summer months seems to play an important role in the frequency of harmful algal blooms.

  18. Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris

    2008-12-01

    Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected. PMID:19192801

  19. Repeatable Population Dynamics among Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Lineages Evolved under High Co-infection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Elizabeth S C P; Morales, Nadya M; Wasik, Brian R; Brusic, Vesna; Whelan, Sean P J; Turner, Paul E

    2016-01-01

    Parasites and hosts can experience oscillatory cycles, where the densities of these interacting species dynamically fluctuate through time. Viruses with different replication strategies can also interact to produce cyclical dynamics. Frequent cellular co-infection can select for defective-interfering particles (DIPs): "cheater" viruses with shortened genomes that interfere with intracellular replication of full-length (ordinary) viruses. DIPs are positively selected when rare because they out-replicate ordinary viruses during co-infection, but DIPs are negatively selected when common because ordinary viruses become unavailable for intracellular exploitation via cheating. Here, we tested whether oscillatory dynamics of ordinary viruses were similar across independently evolved populations of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Results showed identical cyclical dynamics across populations in the first 10 experimental passages, which transitioned to repeatable dampened oscillations by passage 20. Genomic analyses revealed parallel molecular substitutions across populations, particularly novel mutations that became dominant by passage 10. Our study showed that oscillatory dynamics and molecular evolution of interacting viruses were highly repeatable in VSV populations passaged under frequent co-infection. Furthermore, our data suggested that frequent co-infection with DIPs caused lowered performance of full-length viruses, by reducing their population densities by orders of magnitude compared to reproduction of ordinary viruses during strictly clonal infections. PMID:27065953

  20. Repeatable Population Dynamics among Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Lineages Evolved under High Co-infection

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Elizabeth S. C. P.; Morales, Nadya M.; Wasik, Brian R.; Brusic, Vesna; Whelan, Sean P. J.; Turner, Paul E.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites and hosts can experience oscillatory cycles, where the densities of these interacting species dynamically fluctuate through time. Viruses with different replication strategies can also interact to produce cyclical dynamics. Frequent cellular co-infection can select for defective-interfering particles (DIPs): “cheater” viruses with shortened genomes that interfere with intracellular replication of full-length (ordinary) viruses. DIPs are positively selected when rare because they out-replicate ordinary viruses during co-infection, but DIPs are negatively selected when common because ordinary viruses become unavailable for intracellular exploitation via cheating. Here, we tested whether oscillatory dynamics of ordinary viruses were similar across independently evolved populations of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Results showed identical cyclical dynamics across populations in the first 10 experimental passages, which transitioned to repeatable dampened oscillations by passage 20. Genomic analyses revealed parallel molecular substitutions across populations, particularly novel mutations that became dominant by passage 10. Our study showed that oscillatory dynamics and molecular evolution of interacting viruses were highly repeatable in VSV populations passaged under frequent co-infection. Furthermore, our data suggested that frequent co-infection with DIPs caused lowered performance of full-length viruses, by reducing their population densities by orders of magnitude compared to reproduction of ordinary viruses during strictly clonal infections. PMID:27065953

  1. Single-cell variation leads to population invariance in NF-κB signaling dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Hughey, Jacob J.; Gutschow, Miriam V.; Bajar, Bryce T.; Covert, Markus W.

    2015-01-01

    The activation dynamics of nuclear factor (NF)-κB have been shown to affect downstream gene expression. On activation, NF-κB shuttles back and forth across the nuclear envelope. Many dynamic features of this shuttling have been characterized, and most features vary significantly with respect to ligand type and concentration. Here, we report an invariant feature with regard to NF-κB dynamics in cellular populations: the distribution—the average, as well as the variance—of the time between two nuclear entries (the period). We find that this period is conserved, regardless of concentration and across several different ligands. Intriguingly, the distributions observed at the population level are not observed in individual cells over 20-h time courses. Instead, the average period of NF-κB nuclear translocation varies considerably among single cells, and the variance is much smaller within a cell than that of the population. Finally, analysis of daughter-cell pairs and isogenic populations indicates that the dynamics of the NF-κB response is heritable but diverges over multiple divisions, on the time scale of weeks to months. These observations are contrary to the existing theory of NF-κB dynamics and suggest an additional level of control that regulates the overall distribution of translocation timing at the population level. PMID:25473117

  2. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics based on Predator-Prey Relationships in a 3D Physical Simulation.

    PubMed

    Ito, Takashi; Pilat, Marcin L; Suzuki, Reiji; Arita, Takaya

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have reported that population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics, occurring at different time scales, can be affected by each other. Our purpose is to explore the interaction between population and evolutionary dynamics using an artificial life approach based on a 3D physically simulated environment in the context of predator-prey and morphology-behavior coevolution. The morphologies and behaviors of virtual prey creatures are evolved using a genetic algorithm based on the predation interactions between predators and prey. Both population sizes are also changed, depending on the fitness. We observe two types of cyclic behaviors, corresponding to short-term and long-term dynamics. The former can be interpreted as a simple population dynamics of Lotka-Volterra type. It is shown that the latter cycle is based on the interaction between the changes in the prey strategy against predators and the long-term change in both population sizes, resulting partly from a tradeoff between their defensive success and the cost of defense. PMID:26934093

  3. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii.

    PubMed

    Ahumada, Jorge A; Lapointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D

    2004-11-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere. PMID:15605655

  4. Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

    PubMed

    Horreo, Jose Luis; Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto; Fitze, Patrick S

    2016-05-01

    While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation. PMID:26666533

  5. Population-Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Horizontal Gene Transfer by Natural Transformation.

    PubMed

    Mao, Junwen; Lu, Ting

    2016-01-01

    Natural transformation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and plays an essential role in bacterial adaptation, evolution, and speciation. Although its molecular underpinnings have been increasingly revealed, natural transformation is not well characterized in terms of its quantitative ecological roles. Here, by using Neisseria gonorrhoeae as an example, we developed a population-dynamic model for natural transformation and analyzed its dynamic characteristics with nonlinear tools and simulations. Our study showed that bacteria capable of natural transformation can display distinct population behaviors ranging from extinction to coexistence and to bistability, depending on their HGT rate and selection coefficient. With the model, we also illustrated the roles of environmental DNA sources-active secretion and passive release-in impacting population dynamics. Additionally, by constructing and utilizing a stochastic version of the model, we examined how noise shapes the steady and dynamic behaviors of the system. Notably, we found that distinct waiting time statistics for HGT events, namely a power-law distribution, an exponential distribution, and a mix of the both, are associated with the dynamics in the regimes of extinction, coexistence, and bistability accordingly. This work offers a quantitative illustration of natural transformation by revealing its complex population dynamics and associated characteristics, therefore advancing our ecological understanding of natural transformation as well as HGT in general. PMID:26745428

  6. Relative importance of natural disturbances and habitat degradation on snail kite population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Oli, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Natural disturbances and habitat degradation are major factors influencing the dynamics and persistence of many wildlife populations, yet few large-scale studies have explored the relative influence of these factors on the dynamics and persistence of animal populations. We used longterm demographic data and matrix population models to examine the potential effects of habitat degradation and natural disturbances on the dynamics of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA. We found that estimates of stochastic population growth rate were low (0.90). Population growth rate (??) during the first half or our study period (1992 to 1998) was substantially greater than during the second half (1999 to 2005). These 2 periods were characterized by contrasting hydrological conditions. Although ?? was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, the analysis of life table response experiments revealed that a reduction in fertility of kites accounted for >80% of the observed decline in population growth rate. We examined the possibility that the reduction in ?? was caused by (1) habitat degradation due to management, (2) an increase in frequency of moderate drying events in recent years, and (3) both habitat degradation and an increase in frequency of moderate drying events. Our results suggest that both factors could potentially contribute to a large decrease in population growth rate. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering short- and long-term effects of disturbances when modeling population dynamics. Indeed, focusing exclusively on one type of effect may be misleading to both our understanding of the ecological dynamics of the system and to management. The relevance of our results to management is heightened because the snail kite has been selected as a key performance measure of one of the most ambitious ecosystem restoration projects ever undertaken. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

  7. Modelling the Dynamics of Feral Alfalfa Populations and Its Management Implications

    PubMed Central

    Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V.; Begg, Graham S.; Gulden, Robert H.; Van Acker, Rene C.

    2012-01-01

    Background Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Conclusions/Significance Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific

  8. Algal Flocculation with Synthetic Organic Polyelectrolytes

    PubMed Central

    Tenney, Mark W.; Echelberger, Wayne F.; Schuessler, Ronald G.; Pavoni, Joseph L.

    1969-01-01

    The feasibility of removing algae from water and wastewater by chemical flocculation techniques was investigated. Mixed cultures of algae were obtained from both continuous- and batch-fed laboratory reactors. Representative cationic, anionic, and nonionic synthetic organic polyelectrolytes were used as flocculants. Under the experimental conditions, chemically induced algal flocculation occurred with the addition of cationic polyelectrolyte, but not with anionic or nonionic polymers, although attachment of all polyelectrolyte species to the algal surface is shown. The mechanism of chemically induced algal flocculation is interpreted in terms of bridging phenomena between the discrete algal cells and the linearly extended polymer chains, forming a three-dimensional matrix that is capable of subsiding under quiescent conditions. The degree of flocculation is shown to be a direct function of the extent of polymer coverage of the active sites on the algal surface, although to induce flocculation by this method requires that the algal surface charge must concurrently be reduced to a level at which the extended polymers can bridge the minimal distance of separation imposed by electrostatic repulsion. The influence of pH, algal concentration, and algal growth phase on the requisite cationic flocculant dose is also reported. PMID:5370666

  9. Algal biosensor array on a single electrode.

    PubMed

    Tatsuma, Tetsu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Shitanda, Isao; Notsu, Hideo

    2009-02-01

    An algal array was prepared on a single transparent electrode, and photosynthetic activity of each algal channel and its inhibition by a toxin were monitored with a single-channel potentiostat by successive light irradiation with a LED array. PMID:19173040

  10. TEXAS HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM COORDINATION MX964014

    EPA Science Inventory

    Harmful algal blooms (HAB) are an expanding problem in coastal Texas. Nearly � of the known harmful algal blooms along the Texas coast have occurred in the past ten years and have led to significant resource and tourism losses. For example, there are at least two types of toxic...

  11. The Influence of Synaptic Weight Distribution on Neuronal Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Buice, Michael; Koch, Christof; Mihalas, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    The manner in which different distributions of synaptic weights onto cortical neurons shape their spiking activity remains open. To characterize a homogeneous neuronal population, we use the master equation for generalized leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with shot-noise synapses. We develop fast semi-analytic numerical methods to solve this equation for either current or conductance synapses, with and without synaptic depression. We show that its solutions match simulations of equivalent neuronal networks better than those of the Fokker-Planck equation and we compute bounds on the network response to non-instantaneous synapses. We apply these methods to study different synaptic weight distributions in feed-forward networks. We characterize the synaptic amplitude distributions using a set of measures, called tail weight numbers, designed to quantify the preponderance of very strong synapses. Even if synaptic amplitude distributions are equated for both the total current and average synaptic weight, distributions with sparse but strong synapses produce higher responses for small inputs, leading to a larger operating range. Furthermore, despite their small number, such synapses enable the network to respond faster and with more stability in the face of external fluctuations. PMID:24204219

  12. POPULATION PHARMACOKINETIC/DYNAMIC MODEL OF LYMPHOSUPPRESSION AFTER FLUDARABINE ADMINISTRATION

    PubMed Central

    McCune, Jeannine S.; Vicini, Paolo; Salinger, David H.; O’Donnell, Paul V.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Anasetti, Claudio; Mager, Donald E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Quantitative relationships between 9-β-D-arabinofuranosyl-2-fluoroadenine (F-ara-A) concentrations and lymphosuppression have not been reported, but would be useful for regimen design. A population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model was constructed in this study using data from 41 hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients conditioned with busulfan in combination with fludarabine (total dose 120 mg/m2, Protocol 1519) or with fludarabine (total dose 250 mg/m2) with rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rATG, Protocol 2041). Methods Individual pharmacokinetic parameters were fixed to post-hoc Bayesian estimates, and circulating absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) were obtained during the three weeks prior to graft infusion. A semi-physiological cell kill model with three lymphocyte transit compartments was applied and aptly characterized the time-course of suppression of circulating ALC by fludarabine administration. Drug and system-specific parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood expectation maximization algorithm, and the final model was qualified using an internal visual predictive check. Results The final model successfully characterized the time-course and variability in ALC. Pharmacodynamic parameters exhibited considerable between subject variability (38.9-211%). The HCT protocol was the only covariate associated with the pharmacodynamic parameters, specifically the lymphocyte kill rate, the transit rate between lymphocyte compartments, and the baseline ALC. Conclusions This model can be used to simulate the degree of lymphosuppression for design of future fludarabine-based conditioning regimens. PMID:25374408

  13. Phylogeography and Population Dynamics of Dengue Viruses in the Americas

    PubMed Central

    Allicock, Orchid M.; Lemey, Philippe; Tatem, Andrew J.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Bennett, Shannon N.; Mueller, Brandi A.; Suchard, Marc A.; Foster, Jerome E.; Rambaut, Andrew; Carrington, Christine V. F.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Dengue virus (DENV) disease patterns in the Americas over recent decades have been attributed, at least in part, to repeated introduction of DENV strains from other regions, resulting in a shift from hypoendemicity to hyperendemicity. Using newly sequenced DENV-1 and DENV-3 envelope (E) gene isolates from 11 Caribbean countries, along with sequences available on GenBank, we sought to document the population genetic and spatiotemporal transmission histories of the four main invading DENV genotypes within the Americas and investigate factors that influence the rate and intensity of DENV transmission. For all genotypes, there was an initial invasion phase characterized by rapid increases in genetic diversity, which coincided with the first confirmed cases of each genotype in the region. Rapid geographic dispersal occurred upon each genotype's introduction, after which individual lineages were locally maintained, and gene flow was primarily observed among neighboring and nearby countries. There were, however, centers of viral diversity (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Suriname, Venezuela, and Brazil) that were repeatedly involved in gene flow with more distant locations. For DENV-1 and DENV-2, we found that a “distance-informed” model, which posits that the intensity of virus movement between locations is inversely proportional to the distance between them, provided a better fit than a model assuming equal rates of movement between all pairs of countries. However, for DENV-3 and DENV-4, the more stochastic “equal rates” model was preferred. PMID:22319149

  14. Phylogeography and population dynamics of dengue viruses in the Americas.

    PubMed

    Allicock, Orchid M; Lemey, Philippe; Tatem, Andrew J; Pybus, Oliver G; Bennett, Shannon N; Mueller, Brandi A; Suchard, Marc A; Foster, Jerome E; Rambaut, Andrew; Carrington, Christine V F

    2012-06-01

    Changes in Dengue virus (DENV) disease patterns in the Americas over recent decades have been attributed, at least in part, to repeated introduction of DENV strains from other regions, resulting in a shift from hypoendemicity to hyperendemicity. Using newly sequenced DENV-1 and DENV-3 envelope (E) gene isolates from 11 Caribbean countries, along with sequences available on GenBank, we sought to document the population genetic and spatiotemporal transmission histories of the four main invading DENV genotypes within the Americas and investigate factors that influence the rate and intensity of DENV transmission. For all genotypes, there was an initial invasion phase characterized by rapid increases in genetic diversity, which coincided with the first confirmed cases of each genotype in the region. Rapid geographic dispersal occurred upon each genotype's introduction, after which individual lineages were locally maintained, and gene flow was primarily observed among neighboring and nearby countries. There were, however, centers of viral diversity (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Suriname, Venezuela, and Brazil) that were repeatedly involved in gene flow with more distant locations. For DENV-1 and DENV-2, we found that a "distance-informed" model, which posits that the intensity of virus movement between locations is inversely proportional to the distance between them, provided a better fit than a model assuming equal rates of movement between all pairs of countries. However, for DENV-3 and DENV-4, the more stochastic "equal rates" model was preferred. PMID:22319149

  15. Dynamics of Pleistocene population extinctions in Beringian brown bears.

    PubMed

    Barnes, I; Matheus, P; Shapiro, B; Jensen, D; Cooper, A

    2002-03-22

    The climatic and environmental changes associated with the last glaciation (90,000 to 10,000 years before the present; 90 to 10 ka B.P.) are an important example of the effects of global climate change on biological diversity. These effects were particularly marked in Beringia (northeastern Siberia, northwestern North America, and the exposed Bering Strait) during the late Pleistocene. To investigate the evolutionary impact of these events, we studied genetic change in the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in eastern Beringia over the past 60,000 years using DNA preserved in permafrost remains. A marked degree of genetic structure is observed in populations throughout this period despite local extinctions, reinvasions, and potential interspecies competition with the short-faced bear, Arctodus simus. The major phylogeographic changes occurred 35 to 21 ka B.P., before the glacial maximum, and little change is observed after this time. Late Pleistocene histories of mammalian taxa may be more complex than those that might be inferred from the fossil record or contemporary DNA sequences alone. PMID:11910112

  16. Population dynamics of intraguild predation in a lattice gas system.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

    2015-01-01

    In the system of intraguild predation (IGP) we are concerned with, species that are in a predator-prey relationship, also compete for shared resources (space or food). While several models have been established to characterize IGP, mechanisms by which IG prey and IG predator can coexist in IGP systems with spatial competition, have not been shown. This paper considers an IGP model, which is derived from reactions on lattice and has a form similar to that of Lotka-Volterra equations. Dynamics of the model demonstrate properties of IGP and mechanisms by which the IGP leads to coexistence of species and occurrence of alternative states. Intermediate predation is shown to lead to persistence of the predator, while extremely big predation can lead to extinction of one/both species and extremely small predation can lead to extinction of the predator. Numerical computations confirm and extend our results. While empirical observations typically exhibit coexistence of IG predator and IG prey, theoretical analysis in this work demonstrates exact conditions under which this coexistence can occur. PMID:25447811

  17. FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenna, James E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

  18. Remotely Sensing Larval Population Dynamics of Rice Field Anophelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Dister, Sheri W.; Wood, Byron L.; Washino, Robert K.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of both studies was to determine if RS and GIS techniques could be used to distinguish between high and low larval-producing rice fields in California. Results of the first study suggested that early-season green-up and proximity to livestock pastures were positively correlated with high larval abundance. Based on the early-season spectral differences between high and low larval-producing fields, it appeared that canopy development and tillering influenced mosquito habitat quality. At that time, rice fields consisted of a mixture of plants and water, a combination that allowed An. freeborni females to lay eggs in partial sunlight, protected from both predators and wind. This established a population earlier in the season than in other, 'less-green' fields where tillering and plant emergence was too minimal for ovipositioning. The study also indicated the importance of the distance that a mosquito would have to fly in order to take a bloodmeal prior to ovipositing. These associations were fully explored in an expanded study two years later. The second study confirmed the positive relationship between early season canopy development and larval abundance, and also demonstrated the relationship between abundance and distance-to-pasture. The association between greenness (as measured using NDVI), distance-to-pasture, and abundance is illustrated. The second study also indicated the siginificance of the landscape context of rice fields for larval production. Fields that included opportunities for feeding and resting within the flight range of the mosquito had higher abundances than did fields that were in a homogeneous rice area.

  19. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term. PMID:27031571

  20. Complex Population Dynamics in Mussels Arising from Density-Linked Stochasticity

    PubMed Central

    Wootton, J. Timothy; Forester, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Population fluctuations are generally attributed to the deterministic consequences of strong non-linear interactions among organisms, or the effects of random stochastic environmental variation superimposed upon the deterministic skeleton describing population change. Analysis of the population dynamics of the mussel Mytilus californianus taken in 16 plots over 18-years found no evidence that these processes explained observed strong fluctuations. Instead, population fluctuations arose because environmental stochasticity varied with abundance, which we term density-linked stochasticity. This phenomenon arises from biologically relevant mechanisms: recruitment variation and transmission of disturbance among neighboring individuals. Density-linked stochasticity is probably present frequently in populations, as it arises naturally from several general ecological processes, including stage structure variation with density, ontogenetic niche shifts, and local transmission of stochastic perturbations. More thoroughly characterizing and interpreting deviations from the mean behavior of a system will lead to better ecological prediction and improved insight into the important processes affecting populations and ecosystems. PMID:24086617

  1. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  2. Constraints to commercialization of algal fuels.

    PubMed

    Chisti, Yusuf

    2013-09-10

    Production of algal crude oil has been achieved in various pilot scale facilities, but whether algal fuels can be produced in sufficient quantity to meaningfully displace petroleum fuels, has been largely overlooked. Limitations to commercialization of algal fuels need to be understood and addressed for any future commercialization. This review identifies the major constraints to commercialization of transport fuels from microalgae. Algae derived fuels are expensive compared to petroleum derived fuels, but this could change. Unfortunately, improved economics of production are not sufficient for an environmentally sustainable production, or its large scale feasibility. A low-cost point supply of concentrated carbon dioxide colocated with the other essential resources is necessary for producing algal fuels. An insufficiency of concentrated carbon dioxide is actually a major impediment to any substantial production of algal fuels. Sustainability of production requires the development of an ability to almost fully recycle the phosphorous and nitrogen nutrients that are necessary for algae culture. Development of a nitrogen biofixation ability to support production of algal fuels ought to be an important long term objective. At sufficiently large scale, a limited supply of freshwater will pose a significant limitation to production even if marine algae are used. Processes for recovering energy from the algal biomass left after the extraction of oil, are required for achieving a net positive energy balance in the algal fuel oil. The near term outlook for widespread use of algal fuels appears bleak, but fuels for niche applications such as in aviation may be likely in the medium term. Genetic and metabolic engineering of microalgae to boost production of fuel oil and ease its recovery, are essential for commercialization of algal fuels. Algae will need to be genetically modified for improved photosynthetic efficiency in the long term. PMID:23886651

  3. Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

    PubMed

    Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

    2013-12-01

    Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. PMID:24033503

  4. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 μg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants. PMID:22851126

  5. Demographic variability and density-dependent dynamics of a free-ranging rhesus macaque population

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Pacheco, Raisa; Rawlins, Richard G.; Kessler, Matthew J.; Williams, Lawrence E.; Ruiz-Maldonado, Tagrid M.; González-Martínez, Janis; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V.; Sabat, Alberto M.

    2014-01-01

    Density-dependence is hypothesized as the major mechanism of population regulation. However, the lack of long-term demographic data has hampered the use of density-dependent models in nonhuman primates. In this study, we make use of the long-term demographic data from Cayo Santiago’s rhesus macaques to parameterize and analyze both a density-independent and a density-dependent population matrix model, and compare their projections with the observed population changes. We also employ a retrospective analysis to determine how variance in vital rates, and covariance among them, contributed to the observed variation in long-term fitness across different levels of population density. The population exhibited negative density-dependence in fertility and the model incorporating this relationship accounted for 98% of the observed population dynamics. Variation in survival and fertility of sexually active individuals contributed the most to the variation in long-term fitness, while vital rates displaying high temporal variability exhibited lower sensitivities. Our findings are novel in describing density-dependent dynamics in a provisioned primate population, and in suggesting that selection is acting to lower the variance in the population growth rate by minimizing the variation in adult survival at high density. Because density-dependent mechanisms may become stronger in wild primate populations due to increasing habitat loss and food scarcity, our study demonstrates it is important to incorporate variation in population size, as well as demographic variability into population viability analyses for a better understanding of the mechanisms regulating the growth of primate populations. PMID:23847126

  6. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    SciTech Connect

    Yunger, John A.; /Northern Illinois U. /Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus Pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers wer 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in dits. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for P. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on P. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. Pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  7. Population dynamics of the brown alga Himanthalia elongata under harvesting pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagnol, Doriane; Michel, Renaud; Davoult, Dominique

    2016-06-01

    Through experimental harvesting, followed by a 12-month monitoring of demographic attributes, we tested the influence of harvesting on the population dynamics of Himanthalia elongata. We further explore the data to test the hypothesis that the canopy would exert a negative effect on the other developmental stages (intraspecific competition) throughout the recovery cycle of the population. This showed that the H. elongata canopy plays a marked seasonal role not by precluding the presence of other developmental stages but by delaying or preventing their growth and development. The removal of the canopy facilitates the transition from one developmental stage to another, eventually permitting a fast recovery of size structure in the population. This study allows us to integrate population dynamics and intraspecific relationships in our understanding of macroalgal recovery patterns.

  8. Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

  9. Propagation dynamics of an epidemic model with infective media connecting two separated networks of populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Zhang, Haifeng; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-01-01

    Based on the fact that most human pathogens originate from animals, this paper attempts to illustrate the propagation dynamics of some zoonotic infections, which spread in two separated networks of populations (human network I and animal network II) and cross-species (vectors, or infective media). An epidemic time-evolution model is proposed via mean-field approximation and its global dynamics are investigated. It is found that the basic reproduction number in terms of epidemiological parameters and the network structure is the threshold condition determining the propagation dynamics. Further, the influences of various infection rates and contact patterns are verified. Numerical results show that the heterogeneity in connection patterns and inner infection in network I can easily trigger endemic dynamics, but when a pathogen, such as H7N9, has weak infectivity in humans, the effects of animal-animal interactions and the contacts with vectors tend to induce endemic states and enhance the prevalence in all the populations.

  10. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  11. The adaptive potential of maternal stress exposure in regulating population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sheriff, Michael J

    2015-03-01

    Ecologists, evolutionary biologists and biomedical researchers are investing great effort in understanding the impact maternal stress may have on offspring phenotypes. Bian et al. advance this field by providing evidence that density-induced maternal stress programs offspring phenotypes, resulting in direct consequences on their fitness and population dynamics, but doing so in a context-dependent manner. They suggest that intrinsic state alterations induced by maternal stress may be one ecological factor generating delayed density-dependent effects. This research highlights the connection between maternal stress and population dynamics, and the importance of understanding the adaptive potential of such effects in a context-dependent manner. PMID:26247815

  12. Transient processes under dynamic excitation of a coherent population trapping resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khripunov, S. A.; Radnatarov, D. A.; Kobtsev, S. M.; Yudin, V. I.; Taichenachev, A. V.; Basalaev, M. Yu; Balabas, M. V.; Andryushkov, V. A.; Popkov, I. D.

    2016-07-01

    It is shown for the first time that under dynamic excitation of a coherent population trapping resonance in Rb vapours at different bichromatic pump modulation frequencies from a few tens of hertz and higher, the resonance is dramatically deformed as a result of emerging intensity oscillations of radiation transmitted through an Rb vapour cell. A significant change in the shape of the resonance under its dynamic excitation is confirmed experimentally and theoretically. A possible impact of the identified changes in the shape of the coherent population trapping resonance on the stability of an atomic clock is qualitatively discussed.

  13. Exploring dynamical systems and chaos using the logistic map model of population change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groff, Jeffrey R.

    2013-10-01

    The logistic map difference equation is encountered in the theoretical ecology literature as a mathematical model of population change for organisms with non-overlapping generations and density-dependent dynamics influenced solely by intraspecific interactions. This article presents the logistic map as a simple model suitable for introducing students to the properties of dynamical systems including periodic orbits, bifurcations, and deterministic chaos. After a brief historical and mathematical introduction to models of population change and the logistic map, the article summarizes the logistic map activities I teach in my introductory physics laboratories for non-physics majors. The logistic map laboratory introduces the many bioscience students in my courses to a foundational model in population ecology that has inspired ecologists to recognize the importance of nonlinear dynamics in real populations. Although I use this activity in courses for non-majors, the logistic map model of population change could also be taught to physics majors to introduce properties of dynamical systems while demonstrating an application of mathematical modeling outside of traditional physics.

  14. Time-lag in extinction dynamics in experimental populations: evidence for a genetic Allee effect?

    PubMed

    Vercken, Elodie; Vincent, Flora; Mailleret, Ludovic; Ris, Nicolas; Tabone, Elisabeth; Fauvergue, Xavier

    2013-05-01

    1. Propagule pressure, i.e. the number of individuals introduced, is thought to be a major predictor of the establishment success of introduced populations in the field. Its influence in laboratory experimental systems has however been questioned. In fact, other factors involved in long-term population persistence, like habitat size, were usually found to explain most of the dynamics of experimental populations. 2. To better understand the respective influence of short- and long-term factors and their potential interaction on extinction dynamics in experimental systems, we investigated the influence of propagule pressure, habitat size and genetic background on the early dynamics of laboratory-based populations of a hymenopteran parasitoid. 3. The amount of demographic variance differed between establishment and persistence phase and was influenced by habitat size and genetic background (geographic strain), but independent of propagule pressure. In contrast, the probability of extinction within five generations depended on the genetic background and on the interaction between propagule pressure and habitat size. Vulnerability to extinction in small size habitats was increased when populations were founded with a small number of individuals, but this effect was delayed until the third to fifth generations. 4. These results indicate that demographic stochasticity is influential during population establishment, but is not affected by the genetic variability of propagules. On the other hand, extinction might be influenced by a genetic Allee effect triggered by the combination of low propagule pressure and genetic drift. Finally, we documented consistent differences between genetic backgrounds in both deterministic and stochastic population dynamics patterns, with major consequences on extinction risk and ultimately population establishment. PMID:23398653

  15. Strong dispersal in a parasitoid wasp overwhelms habitat fragmentation and host population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Couchoux, C; Seppä, P; van Nouhuys, S

    2016-07-01

    The population dynamics of a parasite depend on species traits, host dynamics and the environment. Those dynamics are reflected in the genetic structure of the population. Habitat fragmentation has a greater impact on parasites than on their hosts because resource distribution is increasingly fragmented for species at higher trophic levels. This could lead to either more or less genetic structure than the host, depending on the relative dispersal rates of species. We examined the spatial genetic structure of the parasitoid wasp Hyposoter horticola, and how it was influenced by dispersal, host population dynamics and habitat fragmentation. The host, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, lives as a metapopulation in a fragmented landscape in the Åland Islands, Finland. We collected wasps throughout the 50 by 70 km archipelago and determined the genetic diversity, spatial population structure and genetic differentiation using 14 neutral DNA microsatellite loci. We compared the genetic structure of the wasp with that of the host butterfly using published genetic data collected over the shared landscape. Using maternity assignment, we also identified full-siblings among the sampled parasitoids to estimate the dispersal range of individual females. We found that because the parasitoid is dispersive, it has low genetic structure, is not very sensitive to habitat fragmentation and has less spatial genetic structure than its butterfly host. The wasp is sensitive to regional rather than local host dynamics, and there is a geographic mosaic landscape for antagonistic co-evolution of host resistance and parasite virulence. PMID:27159020

  16. Remote Sensing Marine Ecology: Wind-driven algal blooms in the open oceans and their ecological impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, DanLing

    2016-07-01

    Algal bloom not only can increase the primary production but also could result in negative ecological consequence, e.g., Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). According to the classic theory for the formation of algal blooms "critical depth" and "eutrophication", oligotrophic sea area is usually difficult to form a large area of algal blooms, and actually the traditional observation is only sporadic capture to the existence of algal blooms. Taking full advantage of multiple data of satellite remote sensing, this study: 1), introduces "Wind-driven algal blooms in open oceans: observation and mechanisms" It explained except classic coastal Ekman transport, the wind through a variety of mechanisms affecting the formation of algal blooms. Proposed a conceptual model of "Strong wind -upwelling-nutrient-phytoplankton blooms" in Western South China Sea (SCS) to assess role of wind-induced advection transport in phytoplankton bloom formation. It illustrates the nutrient resources that support long-term offshore phytoplankton blooms in the western SCS; 2), Proposal of the theory that "typhoons cause vertical mixing, induce phytoplankton blooms", and quantify their important contribution to marine primary production; Proposal a new ecological index for typhoon. Proposed remote sensing inversion models. 3), Finding of the spatial and temporaldistributions pattern of harmful algal bloom (HAB)and species variations of HAB in the South Yellow Sea and East China Sea, and in the Pearl River estuary, and their oceanic dynamic mechanisms related with monsoon; The project developed new techniques and generated new knowledge, which significantly improved understanding of the formation mechanisms of algal blooms. 1), It proposed "wind-pump" mechanism integrates theoretical system combing "ocean dynamics, development of algal blooms, and impact on primary production", which will benefit fisheries management. 2), A new interdisciplinary subject "Remote Sensing Marine Ecology"(RSME) has been

  17. Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

    PubMed Central

    Valdiosera, Cristina E.; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G.; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

    2008-01-01

    The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history. PMID:18347332

  18. Spatial and spatiotemporal variation in metapopulation structure affects population dynamics in a passively dispersing arthropod.

    PubMed

    De Roissart, Annelies; Wang, Shaopeng; Bonte, Dries

    2015-11-01

    The spatial and temporal variation in the availability of suitable habitat within metapopulations determines colonization-extinction events, regulates local population sizes and eventually affects local population and metapopulation stability. Insights into the impact of such a spatiotemporal variation on the local population and metapopulation dynamics are principally derived from classical metapopulation theory and have not been experimentally validated. By manipulating spatial structure in artificial metapopulations of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, we test to which degree spatial (mainland-island metapopulations) and spatiotemporal variation (classical metapopulations) in habitat availability affects the dynamics of the metapopulations relative to systems where habitat is constantly available in time and space (patchy metapopulations). Our experiment demonstrates that (i) spatial variation in habitat availability decreases variance in metapopulation size and decreases density-dependent dispersal at the metapopulation level, while (ii) spatiotemporal variation in habitat availability increases patch extinction rates, decreases local population and metapopulation sizes and decreases density dependence in population growth rates. We found dispersal to be negatively density dependent and overall low in the spatial variable mainland-island metapopulation. This demographic variation subsequently impacts local and regional population dynamics and determines patterns of metapopulation stability. Both local and metapopulation-level variabilities are minimized in mainland-island metapopulations relative to classical and patchy ones. PMID:25988264

  19. Interaction between stocking density and settlement on population dynamics in suspended mussel culture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cubillo, Alhambra M.; Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío

    2015-01-01

    Population dynamics on mussels growing on suspended culture depend mainly on the balance of several processes: mortality and/or dislodgements from the ropes, recruitment and growth. The negative effect of overcrowding on mussel growth and survival has been widely studied. Other works have addressed the effect of population size on recruitment on bottom beds. This study aims to provide insight into the processes underlying population dynamics. To this purpose, we analyzed the effect of stocking density on mussel growth, survival and seed settlement, and the post-settlement interaction between adults and recruits in suspended culture. The temporal pattern of the variables involved in population dynamics was fitted by GAM models, which in contrast with parametric models does not assume any prior relationships between variables. Our results show that mussel growth and survival depend on a trade-off between competition for resources at high densities and the risk of great settlements in less crowded adult mussel populations. Intracohort competition increased with stocking density, while seed settlement, which increases the risk of mussel dislodgements and leads to intercohort competition, was higher at moderate stocking densities. Post-settlement competitive pressures were driven by total population density and size composition. Both intracohort competition in adults and asymmetric competition between adults and recruits increase with higher adult-recruit ratios. All these density-dependent processes should be considered in future management strategies and research experimental designs.

  20. Simultaneous effects of food limitation and inducible resistance on herbivore population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Karen C; Morris, William F; Gross, Kevin

    2008-02-01

    Many herbivore populations fluctuate temporally, but the causes of those fluctuations remain unclear. Plant inducible resistance can theoretically cause herbivore population fluctuations, because herbivory may induce plant changes that reduce the survival or reproduction of later-feeding herbivores. Herbivory can also simply reduce the quantity of food available for later feeders and this, too, can cause population fluctuations. Inducible resistance and food limitation often occur simultaneously, yet whether they jointly facilitate or suppress herbivore fluctuations remains largely unexplored. We present models that suggest that food limitation and inducible resistance may have synergistic effects on herbivore population dynamics. The population-level response of the food plant to herbivory and the details of how inducible resistance affects herbivore performance both influence the resulting herbivore dynamics. Our results identify some biological properties of plant-herbivore systems that might determine whether or not cycles occur, and suggest that future empirical and theoretical population dynamics studies should account for the effects of both food limitation and inducible resistance. PMID:17991500

  1. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more

  2. Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

    2013-01-01

    An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

  3. Connecting Florida Bay algal blooms to freshwater nutrient sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakey, T.; Melesse, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    factors influencing the nutrient circulation that is pertinent to observed patterns in Florida Bay algal blooms. These results point to the utility of regional hydrogeologic characterizations at fine spatial and temporal resolutions in tracking seasonally variable hydrologic inputs in complex and dynamic systems.

  4. A Geospatial Analysis of Harmful Algal Blooms along the California Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, C.; Rothwell, R.; Johnson, E.; Condamoor, M.; Patil, M.; Largier, J. L.; Schmidt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Algal blooms are natural phenomena consisting of the rapid growth of phytoplankton populations. Some blooms have negative ecological or public health effects due to toxin production and removal of oxygen from the water column. In recent years, such "harmful algal blooms" (HABs) have been linked to human illness, economic loss from decreased fishing, and ecological damage related to marine life mortality as well as eutrophication. A notable HAB event occurred along the coast of northern California in August 2011, resulting in economic and ecological impacts of approximately $82 million. This was one of several algal blooms that occurred in fall 2011, with similar northward propagating algal blooms occurring in autumn of other years. Although the scale of the bloom impact is well-known, the spatial and temporal extent of the bloom boundary is still unclear. This study tracked the space-time pattern of numerous blooms during August-October 2011 using multiple NASA Earth observing systems in an effort to quantify and understand the structure of these recurrent bloom events. Aqua MODIS images were used to quantify surface chlorophyll-α levels, and thus to map the extent and development of all autumn algal blooms. The relation between sea surface temperature, ocean surface topography, and algal blooms was further explored with AVHRR and Jason-2 satellite data. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to identify the environmental factors most statistically influential in algal blooms and specifically in HAB events. Results from this study will assist California's Departments of Public Health and Fish & Game in mitigating and managing the impact of future harmful algal blooms.

  5. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

    2015-06-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning. PMID:26465036

  6. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant.

    PubMed

    Dahlgren, Johan P; Bengtsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes. PMID:27220206

  7. Temporal dynamics of linkage disequilibrium in two populations of bighorn sheep

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Joshua M; Poissant, Jocelyn; Malenfant, René M; Hogg, John T; Coltman, David W

    2015-01-01

    Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the nonrandom association of alleles at two markers. Patterns of LD have biological implications as well as practical ones when designing association studies or conservation programs aimed at identifying the genetic basis of fitness differences within and among populations. However, the temporal dynamics of LD in wild populations has received little empirical attention. In this study, we examined the overall extent of LD, the effect of sample size on the accuracy and precision of LD estimates, and the temporal dynamics of LD in two populations of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) with different demographic histories. Using over 200 microsatellite loci, we assessed two metrics of multi-allelic LD, D′, and χ′2. We found that both populations exhibited high levels of LD, although the extent was much shorter in a native population than one that was founded via translocation, experienced a prolonged bottleneck post founding, followed by recent admixture. In addition, we observed significant variation in LD in relation to the sample size used, with small sample sizes leading to depressed estimates of the extent of LD but inflated estimates of background levels of LD. In contrast, there was not much variation in LD among yearly cross-sections within either population once sample size was accounted for. Lack of pronounced interannual variability suggests that researchers may not have to worry about interannual variation when estimating LD in a population and can instead focus on obtaining the largest sample size possible. PMID:26380673

  8. Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

    2014-01-01

    Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

  9. Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

    2016-02-01

    Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

  10. The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Michael

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum. PMID:27294474

  11. Raman microspectroscopy based sensor of algal lipid unsaturation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samek, Ota; Pilát, Zdeněk; Jonáš, Alexandr; Zemánek, Pavel; Šerý, Mojmír; Ježek, Jan; Bernatová, Silvie; Nedbal, Ladislav; Trtílek, Martin

    2011-05-01

    Raman spectroscopy is a powerful tool for chemical analysis. This technique can elucidate fundamental questions about the metabolic processes and intercellular variability on a single cell level. Therefore, Raman spectroscopy can significantly contribute to the study and use of microalgae in systems biology and biofuel technology. Raman spectroscopy can be combined with optical tweezers. We have employed microfluidic system to deliver the sampled microalgae to the Raman-tweezers. This instrument is able to measure chemical composition of cells and to track metabolic processes in vivo, in real-time and label-free making it possible to detect population variability in a wide array of traits. Moreover, employing an active sorting switch, cells can be separated depending on input parameters obtained from Raman spectra. We focus on algal lipids which are promising potential products for biofuel as well as for nutrition. Important parameter characterizing the algal lipids is the degree of unsaturation of the constituent fatty acids. We demonstrate the capacity of our Raman tweezers based sensor to sort cells according to the degree of unsaturation in lipid storage bodies of individual living algal cells.

  12. Promotion of harmful algal blooms by zooplankton predatory activity

    PubMed Central

    Mitra, Aditee; Flynn, Kevin J

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between algae and their zooplanktonic predators typically involves consumption of nutrients by algae, grazing of the algae by zooplankton which in turn enhances predator biomass, controls algal growth and regenerates nutrients. Eutrophication raises nutrient levels, but does not simply increase normal predator–prey activity; rather, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events develop often with serious ecological and aesthetic implications. Generally, HAB species are outwardly poor competitors for nutrients, while their development of grazing deterrents during nutrient stress ostensibly occurs too late, after the nutrients have largely been consumed already by fast-growing non-HAB species. A new mechanism is presented to explain HAB dynamics under these circumstances. Using a multi-nutrient predator–prey model, it is demonstrated that these blooms can develop through the self-propagating failure of normal predator–prey activity, resulting in the transfer of nutrients into HAB growth at the expense of competing algal species. Rate limitation of this transfer provides a continual level of nutrient stress that results in HAB species exhibiting grazing deterrents protecting them from top-down control. This process is self-stabilizing as long as nutrient demand exceeds supply, maintaining the unpalatable status of HABs; such events are most likely under eutrophic conditions with skewed nutrient ratios. PMID:17148360

  13. Dynamics of recruitment-subsidized populations. Final report, 15 July 1989--14 July 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Caswell, H.

    1992-10-31

    This final report briefly describes progress gained in four areas. These are the development of a frequency-response model for the density-independent dynamics of stage classified recruitment-subsidized populations; effects of density on growth rates in benthic invertebrates; larval subsidy; and consideration of individual-based models.

  14. Western Corn Rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) Population Dynamics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Much has been learned about the population dynamics of the western corn rootworm over the last half-century of intensive study, and this knowledge has helped humans manage this destructive pest of corn relatively successfully. However, this insect is something of a moving target when it comes to un...

  15. Stable fly population dynamics in Eastern Nebraska in relation to climatic variables

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Stable flies, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), are among the most economically important arthropod pests of livestock in North America. In this study, we monitored the seasonal dynamics of a stable fly population in eastern Nebraska for five years. Models based upon temperature and precipitation were devel...

  16. MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF WILDLIFE HABITAT AND POPULATIONS AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE

    EPA Science Inventory

    A forest dynamics model (FORCLIM) was linked to a spatial wildlife population model (PATCH) to assess the effects of habitat change in a landscape on selected wildlife species. The habitat changes included forest responses to harvesting, development, and climate change on a west...

  17. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Draeculacephala minerva (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) and Transmission Efficiency of Xylella fastidiosa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The green sharpshooter, Draeculacephala minerva Ball, is a very common and often abundant grass-feeding leafhopper in California. Its population dynamics and ability to transmit Xylella fastidiosa were monitored over a 2-year period in California’s San Joaquin Valley. Collections of individuals fr...

  18. Bacterial population dynamics in diary waste during aerobic and anaerobic treatment and subsequent storage.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this study was to model a typical dairy waste stream and monitor the chemical and bacterial population dynamics that occur during aerobic or anaerobic treatment and subsequent storage in a simulated lagoon, and compare them to waste held without treatment in a simulated lagoon. Both...

  19. Seasonal Population Dynamics and Kernel Damage of the Brown Stink Bug (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) in Corn

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Seasonal population dynamics of the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) in corn was monitored weekly using pheromone traps between May and September in 2005 and 2006. Ten traps were used per field (ca. one acre), and three fields were used each year. The number of ...

  20. Exploring the Utilization of Complex Algal Communities to Address Algal Pond Crash and Increase Annual Biomass Production for Algal Biofuels

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, Cyd E.

    2014-03-25

    This white paper briefly reviews the research literature exploring complex algal communities as a means of increasing algal biomass production via increased tolerance, resilience, and resistance to a variety of abiotic and biotic perturbations occurring within harvesting timescales. This paper identifies what data are available and whether more research utilizing complex communities is needed to explore the potential of complex algal community stability (CACS) approach as a plausible means to increase biomass yields regardless of ecological context and resulting in decreased algal-based fuel prices by reducing operations costs. By reviewing the literature for what we do and do not know, in terms of CACS methodologies, this report will provide guidance for future research addressing pond crash phenomena.

  1. Density-dependent birth rate, birth pulses and their population dynamic consequences.

    PubMed

    Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

    2002-02-01

    In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose a single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a wild animal population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain an exact periodic solution of systems which are with Ricker functions or Beverton-Holt functions, and obtain the threshold conditions for their stability. Above this threshold, there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the single species model with birth pulses are very complex, including small-amplitude annual oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles, and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that allows for a period-doubling route to chaos. PMID:11942532

  2. Dynamics of primordial binary stars in multiple-population globular clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Jongsuk; Vesperini, Enrico; Sollima, Antonio; McMillan, Steve; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

    2016-02-01

    We have performed a survey of N-body simulations to explore the dynamics of primordial binaries in multiple-population globular clusters. We show that, as a consequence of the initial differences between the spatial distribution of first-generation (FG) and second-generation (SG) stars, SG binaries are disrupted more efficiently than FG binaries. The effects of dynamical evolution on the surviving binaries produces a difference between the SG and the FG binary binding energy distribution with the SG population characterized by a larger fraction of high binding energy (more bound) binaries. We also explore the evolution of the radial variation of the SG-to-FG binary number ratio and find that although the global binary fraction decreases more rapidly for the SG population, the local binary fraction measured in the cluster inner regions may still be dominated by SG binaries.

  3. PSO-based multiobjective optimization with dynamic population size and adaptive local archives.

    PubMed

    Leong, Wen-Fung; Yen, Gary G

    2008-10-01

    Recently, various multiobjective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithms have been developed to efficiently and effectively solve multiobjective optimization problems. However, the existing MOPSO designs generally adopt a notion to "estimate" a fixed population size sufficiently to explore the search space without incurring excessive computational complexity. To address the issue, this paper proposes the integration of a dynamic population strategy within the multiple-swarm MOPSO. The proposed algorithm is named dynamic population multiple-swarm MOPSO. An additional feature, adaptive local archives, is designed to improve the diversity within each swarm. Performance metrics and benchmark test functions are used to examine the performance of the proposed algorithm compared with that of five selected MOPSOs and two selected multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. In addition, the computational cost of the proposed algorithm is quantified and compared with that of the selected MOPSOs. The proposed algorithm shows competitive results with improved diversity and convergence and demands less computational cost. PMID:18784011

  4. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  5. [The structure and dynamics of woodreed Calamagrostis canescens population: a modelling approach].

    PubMed

    Ulanova, N G; Demidova, A N; Klochkova, I N; Logofet, D O

    2002-01-01

    A scale of ontogenetic states has been developed for woodreed Calamagrostis canescens, a perennial species dominating the grass layer of fell forest areas. The population structure is considered as a set of age-stage groups of individuals differing both in the ontogenetic stage and the chronological age measured in years. to describe the dynamics through years a special kind of matrix formalism has been proposed which is reducible neither to the classic Leslie matrix for an age-structured population, nor to the well-known Lefkovitch matrix for a stage-structured one, and which does not suffer from excessiveness of the "two-dimensional" representation for the structure implying the projection matrix of a block pattern. It has been shown however that the protection matrix corresponding to C. canescens life-history graph embodies the canonical features of matrix formalism for structured population dynamics, such as the exponential population growth or decline, the convergence to a stable equilibrium structure, the calculable indicator of growth/decline/equilibrium (i.e., a measure of the population reproductive potential) as well as possibility to determine the relative reproductive value of each group. On the other hand, "left-sidedness of the age spectrum", a property that is often observed in real populations and is inherent in Leslie models of growing populations, may fail in the age-stage-structured model. The aggregation of age-stage groups into the age classes is possible only under special strict relationship among the age-stage-specific vital rates of the population. The both circumstances serve a methodical indication that an additional dimension such as the stages, for example, ought to be introduced into the age structure of the model population. PMID:12510590

  6. A hyperparasite affects the population dynamics of a wild plant pathogen

    PubMed Central

    Tollenaere, C; Pernechele, B; Mäkinen, H S; Parratt, S R; Németh, M Z; Kovács, G M; Kiss, L; Tack, A J M; Laine, A-L

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the impact of natural enemies of plant and animal pathogens on their host's population dynamics is needed to determine the role of hyperparasites in affecting disease dynamics, and their potential for use in efficient control strategies of pathogens. Here, we focus on the long-term study describing metapopulation dynamics of an obligate pathogen, the powdery mildew (Podosphaera plantaginis) naturally infecting its wild host plant (Plantago lanceolata) in the fragmented landscape of the Åland archipelago (southwest Finland). Regionally, the pathogen persists through a balance of extinctions and colonizations, yet factors affecting extinction rates remain poorly understood. Mycoparasites of the genus Ampelomyces appear as good candidates for testing the role of a hyperparasite, i.e. a parasite of other parasites, in the regulation of their fungal hosts' population dynamics. For this purpose, we first designed a quantitative PCR assay for detection of Ampelomyces spp. in field-collected samples. This newly developed molecular test was then applied to a large-scale sampling within the Åland archipelago, revealing that Ampelomyces is a widespread hyperparasite in this system, with high variability in prevalence among populations. We found that the hyperparasite was more common on leaves where multiple powdery mildew strains coexist, a pattern that may be attributed to differential exposure. Moreover, the prevalence of Ampelomyces at the plant level negatively affected the overwinter survival of its fungal host. We conclude that this hyperparasite may likely impact on its host population dynamics and argue for increased focus on the role of hyperparasites in disease dynamics. PMID:25204419

  7. A hyperparasite affects the population dynamics of a wild plant pathogen.

    PubMed

    Tollenaere, C; Pernechele, B; Mäkinen, H S; Parratt, S R; Németh, M Z; Kovács, G M; Kiss, L; Tack, A J M; Laine, A-L

    2014-12-01

    Assessing the impact of natural enemies of plant and animal pathogens on their host's population dynamics is needed to determine the role of hyperparasites in affecting disease dynamics, and their potential for use in efficient control strategies of pathogens. Here, we focus on the long-term study describing metapopulation dynamics of an obligate pathogen, the powdery mildew (Podosphaera plantaginis) naturally infecting its wild host plant (Plantago lanceolata) in the fragmented landscape of the Åland archipelago (southwest Finland). Regionally, the pathogen persists through a balance of extinctions and colonizations, yet factors affecting extinction rates remain poorly understood. Mycoparasites of the genus Ampelomyces appear as good candidates for testing the role of a hyperparasite, i.e. a parasite of other parasites, in the regulation of their fungal hosts' population dynamics. For this purpose, we first designed a quantitative PCR assay for detection of Ampelomyces spp. in field-collected samples. This newly developed molecular test was then applied to a large-scale sampling within the Åland archipelago, revealing that Ampelomyces is a widespread hyperparasite in this system, with high variability in prevalence among populations. We found that the hyperparasite was more common on leaves where multiple powdery mildew strains coexist, a pattern that may be attributed to differential exposure. Moreover, the prevalence of Ampelomyces at the plant level negatively affected the overwinter survival of its fungal host. We conclude that this hyperparasite may likely impact on its host population dynamics and argue for increased focus on the role of hyperparasites in disease dynamics. PMID:25204419

  8. A shift from exploitation to interference competition with increasing density affects population and community dynamics.

    PubMed

    Holdridge, Erica M; Cuellar-Gempeler, Catalina; terHorst, Casey P

    2016-08-01

    Intraspecific competition influences population and community dynamics and occurs via two mechanisms. Exploitative competition is an indirect effect that occurs through use of a shared resource and depends on resource availability. Interference competition occurs by obstructing access to a resource and may not depend on resource availability. Our study tested whether the strength of interference competition changes with protozoa population density. We grew experimental microcosms of protozoa and bacteria under different combinations of protozoan density and basal resource availability. We then solved a dynamic predator-prey model for parameters of the functional response using population growth rates measured in our experiment. As population density increased, competition shifted from exploitation to interference, and competition was less dependent on resource levels. Surprisingly, the effect of resources was weakest when competition was the most intense. We found that at low population densities, competition was largely exploitative and resource availability had a large effect on population growth rates, but the effect of resources was much weaker at high densities. This shift in competitive mechanism could have implications for interspecific competition, trophic interactions, community diversity, and natural selection. We also tested whether this shift in the mechanism of competition with protozoa density affected the structure of the bacterial prey community. We found that both resources and protozoa density affected the structure of the bacterial prey community, suggesting that competitive mechanism may also affect trophic interactions. PMID:27551386

  9. Inverse dynamical population synthesis. Constraining the initial conditions of young stellar clusters by studying their binary populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marks, M.; Kroupa, P.

    2012-07-01

    Binary populations in young star clusters show multiplicity fractions both lower and up to twice as high as those observed in the Galactic field. We follow the evolution of a population of binary stars in dense and loose star clusters starting with an invariant initial binary population and a formal multiplicity fraction of unity, and demonstrate that these models can explain the observed binary properties in Taurus, ρ Ophiuchus, Chamaeleon, Orion, IC 348, Upper Scorpius A, Praesepe, and the Pleiades. The model needs to consider solely different birth densities for these regions. The evolved theoretical orbital-parameter distributions are highly probable parent distributions for the observed ones. We constrain the birth conditions (stellar mass, Mecl, and half-mass radius, rh) for the derived progenitors of the star clusters and the overall present-day binary fractions allowed by the present model. The results compare very well with properties of molecular cloud clumps on the verge of star formation. Combining these with previously and independently obtained constraints on the birth densities of globular clusters, we identify a weak stellar mass - half-mass radius correlation for cluster-forming cloud clumps, rh/pc ∝ (Mecl/M⊙)0.13 ± 0.04. The ability of the model to reproduce the binary properties in all the investigated young objects, covering present-day densities from 1-10 stars pc-3 (Taurus) to 2 × 104 stars pc-3 (Orion), suggests that environment-dependent dynamical evolution plays an important role in shaping the present-day properties of binary populations in star clusters, and that the initial binary properties may not vary dramatically between different environments.

  10. Population Dynamics of Aphids on Cereals: Digging in the Time-Series Data to Reveal Population Regulation Caused by Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Brabec, Marek; Honěk, Alois; Pekár, Stano; Martinková, Zdenka

    2014-01-01

    Aphid populations show periodic fluctuations and many causes are attributed to their dynamic. We investigated the regulation by temperature of the aphid populations composed of Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae, and Rhopalosiphum padi on winter wheat using a 24 years long time series data. We computed the sum of daily temperatures above 5°C, the threshold temperature for aphid development, and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0(threshold for wheat development),5] °C interval. Applying Generalised Additive Model framework we tested influences of temperature history expressed via degree days before the start of the aphid immigration on the length of their occurrence. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and direction of this influence, and how far to the past before the start of the aphid season the temperature effect goes and then identify processes responsible for the effect. We fitted four models that differed in the way of correcting for abundance in the previous year and in specification of temperature effects. Abundance in the previous year did not affect the length of period of aphid population growth on wheat. The temperature effect on the period length increased up to 123 days before the start of the current season, i.e. when wheat completed vernalization. Increased sum of daily temperatures above 5°C and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0,5] °C interval both shortened the length of period of aphid population growth. Stronger effect of the latter suggests that wheat can escape from aphid attacks if during winter temperatures range from 0 to 5°C. The temperature influence was not homogeneous in time. The strongest effect of past temperature was about 50 to 80 and 90 to 110 days before the beginning of the current aphid season indicating important role of termination of aphid egg dormancy and egg hatching. PMID:25184219

  11. Interactive effects of prey and p,p'-DDE on burrowing owl population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Gervais, Jennifer A; Hunter, Christine M; Anthony, Robert G

    2006-04-01

    We used population models to explore the effects of the organochlorine contaminant p,p'-DDE and fluctuations in vole availability on the population dynamics of Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia). Previous work indicated an interaction between low biomass of voles in the diet and moderate levels of p,p'-DDE in Burrowing Owl eggs that led to reproductive impairment. We constructed periodic and stochastic matrix models that incorporated three vole population states observed in the field: average, peak, and crash years. We modeled varying frequencies of vole crash years and a range of impairment of owl demographic rates in vole crash years. Vole availability had a greater impact on owl population growth rate than did reproductive impairment if vole populations peaked and crashed frequently. However, this difference disappeared as the frequency of vole crash years declined to once per decade. Fecundity, the demographic rate most affected by p,p'-DDE, had less impact on population growth rate than adult or juvenile survival. A life table response experiment of time-invariant matrices for average, peak, and crash vole conditions showed that low population growth under vole crash conditions was due to low adult and juvenile survival rates, whereas the extremely high population growth under vole peak conditions was due to increased fecundity. Our results suggest that even simple models can provide useful insights into complex ecological interactions. This is particularly valuable when temporal or spatial scales preclude manipulative experimental work in the field or laboratory. PMID:16711053

  12. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

  13. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

    PubMed

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population. PMID:23503752

  14. High Frequency Monitoring for Harmful Algal Blooms

    EPA Science Inventory

    Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasingly becoming a significant ecologic, economic, and social driver in the use of water resources. Cyanobacteria and their toxins play an important role in management decisions for drinking water utilities and public health officials. Online ...

  15. Eukaryotic algal phytochromes span the visible spectrum.

    PubMed

    Rockwell, Nathan C; Duanmu, Deqiang; Martin, Shelley S; Bachy, Charles; Price, Dana C; Bhattacharya, Debashish; Worden, Alexandra Z; Lagarias, J Clark

    2014-03-11

    Plant phytochromes are photoswitchable red/far-red photoreceptors that allow competition with neighboring plants for photosynthetically active red light. In aquatic environments, red and far-red light are rapidly attenuated with depth; therefore, photosynthetic species must use shorter wavelengths of light. Nevertheless, phytochrome-related proteins are found in recently sequenced genomes of many eukaryotic algae from aquatic environments. We examined the photosensory properties of seven phytochromes from diverse algae: four prasinophyte (green algal) species, the heterokont (brown algal) Ectocarpus siliculosus, and two glaucophyte species. We demonstrate that algal phytochromes are not limited to red and far-red responses. Instead, different algal phytochromes can sense orange, green, and even blue light. Characterization of these previously undescribed photosensors using CD spectroscopy supports a structurally heterogeneous chromophore in the far-red-absorbing photostate. Our study thus demonstrates that extensive spectral tuning of phytochromes has evolved in phylogenetically distinct lineages of aquatic photosynthetic eukaryotes. PMID:24567382

  16. Direct conversion of algal biomass to biofuel

    DOEpatents

    Deng, Shuguang; Patil, Prafulla D; Gude, Veera Gnaneswar

    2014-10-14

    A method and system for providing direct conversion of algal biomass. Optionally, the method and system can be used to directly convert dry algal biomass to biodiesels under microwave irradiation by combining the reaction and combining steps. Alternatively, wet algae can be directly processed and converted to fatty acid methyl esters, which have the major components of biodiesels, by reacting with methanol at predetermined pressure and temperature ranges.

  17. Two coexisting tank bromeliads host distinct algal communities on a tropical inselberg.

    PubMed

    Carrias, J-F; Céréghino, R; Brouard, O; Pélozuelo, L; Dejean, A; Couté, A; Corbara, B; Leroy, C

    2014-09-01

    The tank bromeliads Aechmea aquilega (Salisb.) and Catopsis berteroniana (Schultes f.) coexist on a sun-exposed Neotropical inselberg in French Guiana, where they permit conspicuous freshwater pools to form that differ in size, complexity and detritus content. We sampled the algal communities (both eukaryotic and cyanobacterial taxa, including colourless forms) inhabiting either A. aquilega (n = 31) or C. berteroniana (n = 30) and examined differences in community composition and biomass patterns in relation to several biotic and abiotic variables. Chlorella sp. and Bumilleriopsis sp. were the most common taxa and dominated the algal biomass in A. aquilega and C. berteroniana, respectively. Using a redundancy analysis, we found that water volume, habitat complexity and the density of phagotrophic protozoa and collector-gatherer invertebrates were the main factors explaining the distribution of the algal taxa among the samples. Hierarchical clustering procedures based on abundance and presence/absence data clearly segregated the samples according to bromeliad species, revealing that the algal communities in the smaller bromeliad species were not a subset of the communities found in the larger bromeliad species. We conclude that, even though two coexisting tank bromeliad populations create adjacent aquatic habitats, each population hosts a distinct algal community. Hence, bromeliad diversity is thought to promote the local diversity of freshwater algae in the Neotropics. PMID:24400863

  18. Population dynamics of bloaters Coregonus hoyi in Lake Huron, 1980-1998

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2004-01-01

    I investigated population dynamics of bloaters Coregonus hoyi in Lake Huron using data collected during 1980-1998 from fixed-site trawl surveys. Bloaters were uncommon in 1980, but abundance increased during 1980-1992 through a series of strong year classes. High adult abundance appeared to suppress recruitment after 1992, and the population subsequently declined. Growth was similar between sexes up to age-5, thereafter females grew faster than males. Both sexes lived to age-9, but females tended to live longer than males. A Ricker least-squares stock-recruitment relationship defined the relationship between adults and age-3 recruits, and may have been due to egg predation by adult bloaters. Higher female survival and shift in age structure toward older ages after 1990 led to female predominance in the population during 1995-1998. Female predominance appeared to be a consequence and not a cause of the observed population cycle.

  19. [Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

    2014-11-01

    Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase. PMID:25898607

  20. The importance of effective sampling for exploring the population dynamics of haploid-diploid seaweeds.

    PubMed

    Krueger-Hadfield, Stacy A; Hoban, Sean M

    2016-02-01

    The mating system partitions genetic diversity within and among populations and the links between life history traits and mating systems have been extensively studied in diploid organisms. As such most evolutionary theory is focused on species for which sexual reproduction occurs between diploid male and diploid female individuals. However, there are many multicellular organisms with biphasic life cycles in which the haploid stage is prolonged and undergoes substantial somatic development. In particular, biphasic life cycles are found across green, brown and red macroalgae. Yet, few studies have addressed the population structure and genetic diversity in both the haploid and diploid stages in these life cycles. We have developed some broad guidelines with which to develop population genetic studies of haploid-diploid macroalgae and to quantify the relationship between power and sampling strategy. We address three common goals for studying macroalgal population dynamics, including haploid-diploid ratios, genetic structure and paternity analyses. PMID:26987084

  1. Algal and fungal diversity in Antarctic lichens.

    PubMed

    Park, Chae Haeng; Kim, Kyung Mo; Elvebakk, Arve; Kim, Ok-Sun; Jeong, Gajin; Hong, Soon Gyu

    2015-01-01

    The composition of lichen ecosystems except mycobiont and photobiont has not been evaluated intensively. In addition, recent studies to identify algal genotypes have raised questions about the specific relationship between mycobiont and photobiont. In the current study, we analyzed algal and fungal community structures in lichen species from King George Island, Antarctica, by pyrosequencing of eukaryotic large subunit (LSU) and algal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) domains of the nuclear rRNA gene. The sequencing results of LSU and ITS regions indicated that each lichen thallus contained diverse algal species. The major algal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) defined at a 99% similarity cutoff of LSU sequences accounted for 78.7-100% of the total algal community in each sample. In several cases, the major OTUs defined by LSU sequences were represented by two closely related OTUs defined by 98% sequence similarity of ITS domain. The results of LSU sequences indicated that lichen-associated fungi belonged to the Arthoniomycetes, Eurotiomycetes, Lecanoromycetes, Leotiomycetes, and Sordariomycetes of the Ascomycota, and Tremellomycetes and Cystobasidiomycetes of the Basidiomycota. The composition of major photobiont species and lichen-associated fungal community were mostly related to the mycobiont species. The contribution of growth forms or substrates on composition of photobiont and lichen-associated fungi was not evident. PMID:25105247

  2. Low-Dimensional Dynamics of Populations of Pulse-Coupled Oscillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazó, Diego; Montbrió, Ernest

    2014-01-01

    Large communities of biological oscillators show a prevalent tendency to self-organize in time. This cooperative phenomenon inspired Winfree to formulate a mathematical model that originated the theory of macroscopic synchronization. Despite its fundamental importance, a complete mathematical analysis of the model proposed by Winfree—consisting of a large population of all-to-all pulse-coupled oscillators—is still missing. Here, we show that the dynamics of the Winfree model evolves into the so-called Ott-Antonsen manifold. This important property allows for an exact description of this high-dimensional system in terms of a few macroscopic variables, and also allows for the full investigation of its dynamics. We find that brief pulses are capable of synchronizing heterogeneous ensembles that fail to synchronize with broad pulses, especially for certain phase-response curves. Finally, to further illustrate the potential of our results, we investigate the possibility of "chimera" states in populations of identical pulse-coupled oscillators. Chimeras are self-organized states in which the symmetry of a population is broken into a synchronous and an asynchronous part. Here, we derive three ordinary differential equations describing two coupled populations and uncover a variety of chimera states, including a new class with chaotic dynamics.

  3. Evolutionary dynamics of synergistic and discounted group interactions in structured populations.

    PubMed

    Li, Aming; Wang, Long

    2015-07-21

    The emergence of cooperation between unrelated individuals enables researchers to study how the collective cooperative behavior survives in a world where egoists could get more short-term benefits. The spatial multi-player games, which invoke interactions between individuals who are not directly linked by the interactive networks, are drawing more and more attention in exploring the evolution of cooperation. Here we address the evolutionary dynamics in infinite structured populations with discounted, linear, and synergistic group interactions. The five classical scenarios are recovered from the dynamics: (i) dominating defection, (ii) dominating cooperation, (iii) co-existence, (iv) bi-stability, and (v) neutral variants. For linear interactions, the evolutionary dynamics is equivalent to that in finite as well as the well-mixed counterparts, which can be achieved by a payoff matrix transformation, and it illustrates that the more neighbors there are, the harder the cooperators survive. Yet both cooperation and defection emerge easier in finite populations than in infinite for discounted and synergistic interactions. Counterintuitively, we find that the synergistic group interactions always raise cooperators׳ barriers to occupy the population with the increase of the number of neighbors in infinite structured populations. Our results go against the common belief that synergistic interactions are necessarily beneficial for the cooperative behavior. PMID:25890033

  4. Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system.

    PubMed

    Castorani, Max C N; Reed, Daniel C; Alberto, Filipe; Bell, Tom W; Simons, Rachel D; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Siegel, David A; Raimondi, Peter T

    2015-12-01

    Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment. PMID:26909421

  5. Diet shifts and population dynamics of estuarine foraminifera during ecosystem recovery after experimentally induced hypoxia crises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brouwer, G. M.; Duijnstee, I. A. P.; Hazeleger, J. H.; Rossi, F.; Lourens, L. J.; Middelburg, J. J.; Wolthers, M.

    2016-03-01

    This study shows foraminiferal dynamics after experimentally induced hypoxia within the wider context of ecosystem recovery. 13C-labeled bicarbonate and glucose were added to the sediments to examine foraminiferal diet shifts during ecosystem recovery and test-size measurements were used to deduce population dynamics. Hypoxia-treated and undisturbed patches were compared to distinguish natural (seasonal) fluctuations from hypoxia-induced responses. The effect of timing of disturbance and duration of recovery were investigated. The foraminiferal diets and population dynamics showed higher fluctuations in the recovering patches compared to the controls. The foraminiferal diet and population structure of Haynesina germanica and Ammonia beccarii responded differentially and generally inversely to progressive stages of ecosystem recovery. Tracer inferred diet estimates in April and June and the two distinctly visible cohorts in the test-size distribution, discussed to reflect reproduction in June, strongly suggest that the ample availability of diatoms during the first month of ecosystem recovery after the winter hypoxia was likely profitable to A. beccarii. Enhanced reproduction itself was strongly linked to the subsequent dietary shift to bacteria. The distribution of the test dimensions of H. germanica indicated that this species had less fluctuation in population structure during ecosystem recovery but possibly reproduced in response to the induced winter hypoxia. Bacteria seemed to consistently contribute more to the diet of H. germanica than diatoms. For the diet and test-size distribution of both species, the timing of disturbance seemed to have a higher impact than the duration of the subsequent recovery period.

  6. Population dynamics of red-backed voles (Myodes) in North America.

    PubMed

    Boonstra, Rudy; Krebs, Charles J

    2012-03-01

    We review the population dynamics of red-backed voles (Myodes species) in North America, the main deciduous and coniferous forest-dwelling microtines on this continent, and compare and contrast their pattern with that of the same or similar species in Eurasia. We identify 7 long-term studies of population changes in Myodes in North America. Using autoregressive and spectral analysis, we found that only 2 of the 7 show 3- to 5-year cycles like those found in some Eurasian populations. There was no relationship between latitude and cycling. The general lack of cyclicity is associated with two key aspects of their demography that act in tandem: first, poor overwinter survival in most years; second, chronically low densities, with irregular outbreak years. Eight factors might explain why some Myodes populations fluctuate in cycles and others fluctuate irregularly, and we review the evidence for each factor: food supplies, nutrients, predation, interspecific competition, disease, weather, spacing behavior and interactive effects. Of these eight, only food supplies appear to be sufficient to explain the differences between cyclic and non-cyclic populations. Irregular fluctuations are the result of pulsed food supplies in the form of berry crops (M. rutilus) or tree seeds (M. gapperi) linked to weather patterns. We argue that, to understand the cause for the patterns in the respective hemispheres, we must know the mechanism(s) driving population change and this must be linked to rigorous field tests. We suggest that a large-scale, year-round feeding experiment should improve overwintering survival, increase standing densities, and flip non-cyclic Myodes populations into cyclic dynamics that would mimic the patterns seen in the cyclic populations found in parts of Eurasia. PMID:21947547

  7. Wasting disease regulates long-term population dynamics in a threatened seagrass.

    PubMed

    Bull, James C; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J

    2012-05-01

    The role of disease in the long-term dynamics of threatened species is poorly quantified, as well as being under-represented in ecology and conservation management. To understand persistent host-pathogen interaction operating in a vulnerable habitat, we quantified dynamics driving patterns of seagrass density using a longitudinal study in a relatively pristine site (Isles of Scilly, UK). Replicated samples of eelgrass (Zostera marina) density and wasting disease prevalence, presumably caused by Labyrinthula zosterae, were taken from five meadows at the height of the growing season, over the years 1997-2010. Data were used to parameterise a population dynamic model, incorporating density-dependent factors and sea temperature records. We found that direct density and disease-mediated feedback operate within a network of local populations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the strength of limitation to seagrass growth by disease was increased at higher temperatures. This modification of the coupled host-pathogen dynamics forms a novel hypothesis to account for dramatic die-backs of Z. marina widely reported elsewhere. Our findings highlight the importance of disease in structuring distributions of vulnerable species, as well as the application of population modelling in order to reveal ecological processes and prioritize future mechanistic investigation. PMID:22076311

  8. a Simple Probabilistic, Biologically Informed Model of the Population Dynamics of Desert Shrubs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worman, S.; Furbish, D. J.; Clarke, J. H.; Roberts, A. S.

    2010-12-01

    In arid environments, spatiotemporal variations in the processes of erosion and deposition are strongly coupled with the structure and dynamics of plant communities as well as the specific life behavior of individual plants. Understanding how physical transport processes affect the evolution of the land surface on geomorphic time-scales therefore requires considering how long-term changes in plant dynamics may in turn impact such processes. The development of this desert shrub population dynamics model is therefore motivated by the need to link rain-splash induced mound building at the shrub-scale with the unfolding ‘biological play’ occurring on a hillslope. Using the Master Equation to conserve shrub age, probabilistic and biologically informed statements for recruitment and mortality are formulated to function as source and sink terms respectively. This simple accounting framework, by tracking the number of individuals entering and leaving a population, captures the changes in shrub count that can be expected in time as the key variables driving the dynamics of these plant communities (i.e. precipitation) also change in time. The result is a tool through which it is possible to statistically describe the aggregate spatiotemporal behavior of different shrub populations, with their own characteristic life-cycles and physical dimensions, under different external forcing scenarios. This model features inputs that have a solid biophysical basis and insofar as it has the capacity to mimic key features of real processes, leads to outputs which appear consistent with findings reported in the literature.

  9. Chimera states in population dynamics: Networks with fragmented and hierarchical connectivities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hizanidis, Johanne; Panagakou, Evangelia; Omelchenko, Iryna; Schöll, Eckehard; Hövel, Philipp; Provata, Astero

    2015-07-01

    We study numerically the development of chimera states in networks of nonlocally coupled oscillators whose limit cycles emerge from a Hopf bifurcation. This dynamical system is inspired from population dynamics and consists of three interacting species in cyclic reactions. The complexity of the dynamics arises from the presence of a limit cycle and four fixed points. When the bifurcation parameter increases away from the Hopf bifurcation the trajectory approaches the heteroclinic invariant manifolds of the fixed points producing spikes, followed by long resting periods. We observe chimera states in this spiking regime as a coexistence of coherence (synchronization) and incoherence (desynchronization) in a one-dimensional ring with nonlocal coupling and demonstrate that their multiplicity depends on both the system and the coupling parameters. We also show that hierarchical (fractal) coupling topologies induce traveling multichimera states. The speed of motion of the coherent and incoherent parts along the ring is computed through the Fourier spectra of the corresponding dynamics.

  10. The contribution of germination functional traits to population dynamics of a desert plant community.

    PubMed

    Huang, Zhenying; Liu, Shuangshuang; Bradford, Kent J; Huxman, Travis E; Venable, D Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    Early life-cycle events play critical roles in determining the population and community dynamics of plants. The ecology of seeds and their germination patterns can determine range limits, adaptation to environmental variation, species diversity, and community responses to climate change. Understanding the adaptive consequences and environmental filtering of such functional traits will allow us to explain and predict ecological dynamics. Here we quantify key functional aspects of germination physiology and relate them to an existing functional ecology framework to explain long-term population dynamics for 13 species of desert annuals near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Our goal was to assess the extent to which germination functional biology contributes to long-term population processes in nature. Some of the species differences in base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for germination, thermal times to germination, and base water potentials for germination were strongly related to 20-yr mean germination fractions, 25-yr average germination dates, seed size, and long-term demographic variation. Comparisons of germination fraction, survival, and fecundity vs. yearly changes in population size found significant roles for all three factors, although in varying proportions for different species. Relationships between species' germination physiologies and relative germination fractions varied across years, with fast-germinating species being favored in years with warm temperatures during rainfall events in the germination season. Species with low germination fractions and high demographic variance have low integrated water-use efficiency, higher vegetative growth rates, and smaller, slower-germinating seeds. We have identified and quantified a number of functional traits associated with germination biology that play critical roles in ecological population dynamics. PMID:27008793

  11. Long-term disease dynamics in lakes: causes and consequences of chytrid infections in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Ives, Anthony R; Lathrop, Richard C; Carpenter, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the drivers and consequences of disease epidemics is an important frontier in ecology. However, long-term data on hosts, their parasites, and the corresponding environmental conditions necessary to explore these interactions are often unavailable. We examined the dynamics of Daphnia pulicaria, a keystone zooplankter in lake ecosystems, to explore the long-term causes and consequences of infection by a chytridiomycete parasitoid (Polycaryum laeve). After quantifying host-pathogen dynamics from vouchered samples collected over 15 years, we used autoregressive models to evaluate (1) hypothesized drivers of infection, including host density, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, host-food availability, and lake mixing; and (2) the effects of epidemics on host populations. Infection was present in most years but varied widely in prevalence, from < 1% to 34%, with seasonal peaks in early spring and late fall. Within years, lake stratification strongly inhibited P. laeve transmission, such that epidemics occurred primarily during periods of water mixing. Development of the thermocline likely reduced transmission by spatially separating susceptible hosts from infectious zoospores. Among years, ice duration and cumulative snowfall correlated negatively with infection prevalence, likely because of reductions in spring phytoplankton and D. pulicaria density in years with extended winters. Epidemics also influenced dynamics of the host population. Infected D. pulicaria rarely (< 1%) contained eggs, and P. laeve prevalence was positively correlated with sexual reproduction in D. pulicaria. Analyses of D. pulicaria density-dependent population dynamics predicted that, in the absence of P. laeve infection, host abundance would be 11-50% higher than what was observed. By underscoring the importance of complex physical processes in controlling host-parasite interactions and of epidemic disease in influencing host populations, our results highlight the value of long

  12. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Pat; Landahl, John

    This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…

  13. Population Dynamics of Soil Pseudomonads in the Rhizosphere of Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.).

    PubMed

    Loper, J E; Haack, C; Schroth, M N

    1985-02-01

    Rhizosphere population dynamics of seven Pseudomonas fluorescens and Pseudomonas putida strains isolated from rhizospheres of various agricultural plants were studied on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in field soil under controlled environmental conditions. Rhizosphere populations of two strains (B10 and B4) were quantitatively related to initial seed piece inoculum levels when plants were grown at -0.3 bar matric potential. At a given inoculum level, rhizosphere populations of strain B4 were consistently greater than those of strain B10. In vivo growth curves on 4-cm root tip-proximal segments indicated that both strains grew at similar rates in the potato rhizosphere, but large populations of strain B10 were not maintained at 24 degrees C after 7 h, whereas those of strain B4 were maintained for at least 40 h. Although both strains grew more rapidly in the rhizosphere at 24 degrees C than at 12 degrees C, their rhizosphere populations after seed piece inoculation were generally greater at 12 or 18 degrees C, indicating that in vivo growth did not solely determine rhizosphere populations in these studies. In vitro osmotolerance of seven Pseudomonas strains (including strains B4 and B10) was correlated with their abilities to establish stable populations in the rhizosphere of potato. Stability of rhizosphere populations of the Pseudomonas strains studied here was maximized at low (i.e., 12 degrees C) soil temperatures. These results indicate that Pseudomonas strains differ in their capacity to maintain stable rhizosphere populations in association with potato. This capacity, distinct from the ability to grow in the rhizosphere, may limit the establishment of rhizosphere populations under some environmental conditions. PMID:16346729

  14. Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

    PubMed

    Coron, Camille

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches. PMID:25840519

  15. Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

  16. Dynamics of the double-crested cormorant population on Lake Ontario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blackwell, Bradley F.; Stapanian, Martin A.; Weseloh, D.V. Chip

    2002-01-01

    After nearly 30 years of recolonization and expansion across North America, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) occupies the role of a perceived and, in some situations, realized threat to fish stocks and other resources. However, population data necessary to plan, defend, and implement management of this species are few. Our purpose was to gain insight into the relative contribution of various population parameters to the overall rate of population growth and identify data needs critical to improving our understanding of the dynamics of double-crested cormorant populations. We demonstrated the construction of a biologically reasonable representation of cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario (1979-2000) by referencing literature values for fertility, age at first breeding, and survival. These parameters were incorporated into a deterministic stage-classified matrix model. By calculating the elasticity of matrix elements (i.e., statgspecific fertility and survival), we found that cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario was most sensitive to survival of birds about to turn age 3 and older. Finally, we demonstrated how this information could be used to evaluate management scenarios and direct future research by simulating potential environmental effects on fertility and survival, as well as a 5-year egg-oiling program. We also demonstrated that survival of older birds exerts more effective population control than changes in fertility.

  17. Temporal variation in the synchrony of weather and its consequences for spatiotemporal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Allstadt, Andrew J; Liebhold, Andrew M; Johnson, Derek M; Davis, Robert E; Haynes, Kyle J

    2015-11-01

    Over large areas, synchronous fluctuations in population density are often attributed to environmental stochasticity (e.g., weather) shared among local populations. This concept was first advanced by Patrick Moran who showed, based on several assumptions, that long-term population synchrony will equal the synchrony of environmental stochasticity among locations. We examine the consequences of violating one of Moran's assumptions, namely that environmental synchrony is constant through time. We demonstrate that the synchrony of weather conditions from regions across the United States varied considerably from 1895 to 2010. Using a simulation model modified from Moran's original study, we show that temporal variation in environmental synchrony can cause changes in population synchrony, which in turn can temporarily increase or decrease the amplitude of regional-scale population fluctuations. A case study using the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) provides empirical support for these predictions. This study provides theoretical and empirical evidence that temporal variation in environmental synchrony can be used to identify factors that synchronize population fluctuations and highlights a previously underappreciated cause of variability in population dynamics. PMID:27070013

  18. Inferring population and metapopulation dynamics of Liparis loeselii from single-census and inventory data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oostermeijer, J. G. B.; Hartman, Y.

    2014-10-01

    To conserve endangered species, information is needed on (meta)population responses to habitat quality and management. As possibilities for long-term studies are generally limited, it is important to obtain as much information as possible in a single field season. We obtained such single-census data for the orchid Liparis loeselii, a European Habitat Directive species. Stage structures of 15 Dutch dune and fen populations were related to vegetation structure, environmental indicators, and management. Botanical inventory records from 1930 to 2003 were used to infer population life spans. Cluster analysis did not reveal successional stage structure types. Dense populations with high recruitment mainly occurred in open, young-successional vegetation with high soil pH. High soil humidity and acidification negatively affected orchid densities. Early mowing was preferable over late mowing in dune slacks, because the latter reduced juvenile densities. The predominant population life span was three to eight years, and similar for dune slacks and fens. Longer life spans were occasionally observed at mown sites with influx of base-rich water. Our results suggest high metapopulation dynamics. Long-term metapopulation viability requires the formation of new habitat by dune slack formation in dunes and peat removal in fens. Population persistence can be prolonged to some extent by mowing, extensive grazing, or sod removal if natural habitat formation is impossible. Our study demonstrates that useful information on (meta)population ecology and viability can be obtained in a single field season.

  19. Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forster, Robert Burke

    2006-12-01

    This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

  20. Population spatiotemporal dynamics of spinal intermediate zone interneurons during air-stepping in adult spinal cats

    PubMed Central

    AuYong, Nicholas; Ollivier-Lanvin, Karen

    2011-01-01

    The lumbar spinal cord circuitry can autonomously generate locomotion, but it remains to be determined which types of neurons constitute the locomotor generator and how their population activity is organized spatially in the mammalian spinal cord. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of the spinal interneuronal population activity in the intermediate zone of the adult mammalian cord. Segmental interneuronal population activity was examined via multiunit activity (MUA) during air-stepping initiated by perineal stimulation in subchronic spinal cats. In contrast to single-unit activity, MUA provides a continuous measure of neuronal activity within a ∼100-μm volume around the recording electrode. MUA was recorded during air-stepping, along with hindlimb muscle activity, from segments L3 to L7 with two multichannel electrode arrays placed into the left and right hemicord intermediate zones (lamina V–VII). The phasic modulation and spatial organization of MUA dynamics were examined in relation to the locomotor cycle. Our results show that segmental population activity is modulated with respect to the ipsilateral step cycle during air-stepping, with maximal activity occurring near the ipsilateral swing to stance transition period. The phase difference between the population activity within the left and right hemicords was also found to correlate to the left-right alternation of the step cycle. Furthermore, examination of MUA throughout the rostrocaudal extent showed no differences in population dynamics between segmental levels, suggesting that the spinal interneurons targeted in this study may operate as part of a distributed “clock” mechanism rather than a rostrocaudal oscillation as seen with motoneuronal activity. PMID:21775722

  1. Microflotation performance for algal separation.

    PubMed

    Hanotu, James; Bandulasena, H C Hemaka; Zimmerman, William B

    2012-07-01

    The performance of microflotation, dispersed air flotation with microbubble clouds with bubble size about 50 µm, for algae separation using fluidic oscillation for microbubble generation is investigated. This fluidic oscillator converts continuous air supply into oscillatory flow with a regular frequency to generate bubbles of the scale of the exit pore. Bubble characterization results showed that average bubble size generated under oscillatory air flow state was 86 µm, approximately twice the size of the diffuser pore size of 38 µm. In contrast, continuous air flow at the same rate through the same diffusers yielded an average bubble size of 1,059 µm, 28 times larger than the pore size. Following microbubble generation, the separation of algal cells under fluidic oscillator generated microbubbles was investigated by varying metallic coagulant types, concentration and pH. Best performances were recorded at the highest coagulant dose (150 mg/L) applied under acidic conditions (pH 5). Amongst the three metallic coagulants studied, ferric chloride yielded the overall best result of 99.2% under the optimum conditions followed closely by ferric sulfate (98.1%) and aluminum sulfate with 95.2%. This compares well with conventional dissolved air flotation (DAF) benchmarks, but has a highly turbulent flow, whereas microflotation is laminar with several orders of magnitude lower energy density. PMID:22290221

  2. Sterol phylogenesis and algal evolution

    SciTech Connect

    Nes, W.D.; Norton, R.A.; Crumley, F.G. ); Madigan, S.J.; Katz, E.R. )

    1990-10-01

    The stereochemistry of several sterol precursors and end products synthesized by two fungal-like microorganisms Prototheca wickerhamii (I) and Dictyostelium discoideum (II) have been determined by chromatographic (TLC, GLC, and HPLC) and spectral (UV, MS, and {sup 1}H NMR) methods. From I and II the following sterols were isolated from the cells: cycloartenol, cyclolaudenol, 24(28)-methylenecy-cloartanol, ergosterol, protothecasterol, 4{alpha}-methylergostanol, 4{alpha}-methylclionastanol, clionastanol, 24{beta}-ethylcholesta-8,22-enol, and dictyosterol. In addition, the mechanism of C-24 methylation was investigated in both organisms by feeding to I (2-{sup 3}H)lanosterol, (2-{sup 3}H)cycloartenol, (24{sup 3}H)lanosterol, and (methyl-{sup 2}H{sub 3})methionine and by feeding to II (methyl-{sup 2}H{sub 3})methionine. The results demonstrate that the 24{beta} configuration is formed by different alkylation routes in I and II. The authors conclude that Prototheca is an apoplastic Chlorella (i.e., an alga) and that Dictyostelium as well as the other soil amoebae that synthesize cycloartenol evolved from algal rather than fungal ancestors.

  3. Towards developing algal synthetic biology.

    PubMed

    Scaife, Mark Aden; Smith, Alison Gail

    2016-06-15

    The genetic, physiological and metabolic diversity of microalgae has driven fundamental research into photosynthesis, flagella structure and function, and eukaryotic evolution. Within the last 10 years these organisms have also been investigated as potential biotechnology platforms, for example to produce high value compounds such as long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, pigments and antioxidants, and for biodiesel precursors, in particular triacylglycerols (TAGs). Transformation protocols, molecular tools and genome sequences are available for a number of model species including the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum, although for both species there are bottlenecks to be overcome to allow rapid and predictable genetic manipulation. One approach to do this would be to apply the principles of synthetic biology to microalgae, namely the cycle of Design-Build-Test, which requires more robust, predictable and high throughput methods. In this mini-review we highlight recent progress in the areas of improving transgene expression, genome editing, identification and design of standard genetic elements (parts), and the use of microfluidics to increase throughput. We suggest that combining these approaches will provide the means to establish algal synthetic biology, and that application of standard parts and workflows will avoid parallel development and capitalize on lessons learned from other systems. PMID:27284033

  4. Effects of an organophosphate on Daphnia magna at suborganismal and organismal levels: implications for population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Duquesne, Sabine

    2006-10-01

    The effects and recovery of 24 h pulse exposure to paraoxon-methyl on Daphnia magna were recorded for various endpoints to study the propagation of effects through various biological levels of organization. Above a threshold concentration (2.2 microgL(-1)), all selected endpoints were affected. Thus, effects at the suborganismal level (e.g., the biomarker response: transient inhibition of cholinesterase (ChE) activity) were accompanied by effects at the organismal (survival, reduction in reproductive performance, decrease in body size) and population (reduced population growth rate) levels. At intermediate and sublethal concentrations, exposure induced a transient ChE inhibition that was also accompanied by effects at the organismal level and that exerted long-term effects on population dynamics. At lower concentrations, although ChE activity was affected, there was no propagation of effects to higher biological levels. This study shows that effects of pulse exposure to organophosphates propagate from the suborganismal level toward the population level and demonstrates the significance of transient ChE inhibition on population dynamics. PMID:16545452

  5. Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neher, Richard

    2010-03-01

    Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

  6. Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

    The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

  7. Dynamical analysis of seasonal migrating population; the effect of regular hunting to the coexistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sambas, T. J. M.; Khaliq, B. F.; Waluyo, D. S. Y. S.; Putra, P. S.; Soewono, E.

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal migration among wild populations is commonly seen especially in the wild life region. The migration takes place during a certain season where logistical condition and the existing territory can no longer support the life of the whole population. In this case portion of the population migrate to the better place as part of their survival, and returning back to the home place when the logistical condition is improved. Here we model the dynamic of North-South annual migration of Impala population in Zimbabwe, where portion of population in the Southern part move to the North in the beginning of the dry season and portion of them return back to the South in the wet season. Here the North area has a better environmental carrying capacity than the South. Different processes take place during the year, partial migration to the south (during the month of December and January), partial migration to the north (during the month of June and July), and birth process (during the month of November and December). We construct a discrete dynamical model for simulating the annual migrating process. It is found that a stable co-existence always occurs when no hunting takes place in all season. When hunting is allowed, the co-existence could be severely affected. We obtain here a threshold condition for co-existence and show numerical simulations for different hunting scenarios.

  8. Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scor