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Sample records for analysis risk spar

  1. Simplified plant analysis risk (SPAR) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology: Comparisons with other HRA methods

    SciTech Connect

    J. C. Byers; D. I. Gertman; S. G. Hill; H. S. Blackman; C. D. Gentillon; B. P. Hallbert; L. N. Haney

    2000-07-31

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  2. Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Methodology: Comparisons with other HRA Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan

    2000-08-01

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  3. SPAR improved structure/fluid dynamic analysis capability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oden, J. T.; Pearson, M. L.

    1983-01-01

    The capability of analyzing a coupled dynamic system of flowing fluid and elastic structure was added to the SPAR computer code. A method, developed and adopted for use in SPAR utilizes the existing assumed stress hybrid plan element in SPAR. An operational mode was incorporated in SPAR which provides the capability for analyzing the flaw of a two dimensional, incompressible, viscous fluid within rigid boundaries. Equations were developed to provide for the eventual analysis of the interaction of such fluids with an elastic solid.

  4. Development of Standardized Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Shutdown Operations Integrated in SPAR Level 1 Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; J. Mitman

    2008-05-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during Modes 4, 5, and 6 at pressurized water reactors and Modes 4 and 5 at boiling water reactors can be significant. This paper describes using the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s full-power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development of risk evaluation models for commercial nuclear power plants. The shutdown models are integrated with their respective internal event at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the SPAR full-power model with shutdown event tree logic. Preliminary human reliability analysis results indicate that risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to correctly diagnose events and initiate systems.

  5. SPAR improved structure-fluid dynamic analysis capability, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pearson, M. L.

    1984-01-01

    An efficient and general method of analyzing a coupled dynamic system of fluid flow and elastic structures is investigated. The improvement of Structural Performance Analysis and Redesign (SPAR) code is summarized. All error codes are documented and the SPAR processor/subroutine cross reference is included.

  6. SPAR data set contents. [finite element structural analysis system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, S. W.

    1981-01-01

    The contents of the stored data sets of the SPAR (space processing applications rocket) finite element structural analysis system are documented. The data generated by each of the system's processors are stored in a data file organized as a library. Each data set, containing a two-dimensional table or matrix, is identified by a four-word name listed in a table of contents. The creating SPAR processor, number of rows and columns, and definitions of each of the data items are listed for each data set. An example SPAR problem using these data sets is also presented.

  7. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  8. I&C Modeling in SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2012-06-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently have very limited instrumentation and control (I&C) modeling [1]. Most of the I&C components in the operating plant SPAR models are related to the reactor protection system. This was identified as a finding during the industry peer review of SPAR models. While the Emergency Safeguard Features (ESF) actuation and control system was incorporated into the Peach Bottom Unit 2 SPAR model in a recent effort [2], various approaches to expend resources for detailed I&C modeling in other SPAR models are investigated.

  9. Inspection of spar-core bond in helicopter rotor blades using finite element analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chakrapani, Sunil Kishore; Barnard, Daniel J.; Dayal, Vinay

    2015-03-01

    This work focuses on inspection of spar-core bond of a helicopter rotor blade using finite element analysis. Structures which have high density, high stiffness cores can be very difficult to inspect due to various mode conversions. FEM was used to capture these mode conversions effectively. The structure consists of a thin spar section followed by a spar-core half space and another thin spar section. A Lamb wave excited in the spar section can mode convert into a Rayleigh wave in the spar-core section due to the coupling of the core material. This in turn mode converts back into a Lamb wave upon interacting with the next spar section. This work focuses solely on capturing the mode conversions between Rayleigh and Lamb modes at different discontinuities in the geometry.

  10. Analysis of SPAR 8 single-axis levitation experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rush, J. E.; Schafer, C. F.; Holland, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    The melting and resolidification of SPAR 8 payload melting and resolidification of a glass specimen from the in a containerless condition and the retrieval and examination of the specimen from the. The absence of container contact was assured by use of a single-axis acoustic levitation system. However, the sample contacted a wire cage after being held without container contact by the acoustic field for only approximately 87 seconds. At this time, the sample was still molten and, therefore, flowed aroung the wire and continued to adhere to it. An analysis of why the sample did not remain levitated free of container contact is presented. The experiment is described, and experimental observations are discussed and analyzed.

  11. SPAR improved structural-fluid dynamic analysis capability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pearson, M. L.

    1985-01-01

    The results of a study whose objective was to improve the operation of the SPAR computer code by improving efficiency, user features, and documentation is presented. Additional capability was added to the SPAR arithmetic utility system, including trigonometric functions, numerical integration, interpolation, and matrix combinations. Improvements were made in the EIG processor. A processor was created to compute and store principal stresses in table-format data sets. An additional capability was developed and incorporated into the plot processor which permits plotting directly from table-format data sets. Documentation of all these features is provided in the form of updates to the SPAR users manual.

  12. Analytical model and stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a passively morphing ornithopter wing.

    PubMed

    Wissa, Aimy; Calogero, Joseph; Wereley, Norman; Hubbard, James E; Frecker, Mary

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of the leading edge spar of a flapping wing unmanned air vehicle with a compliant spine inserted in it. The compliant spine is a mechanism that was designed to be flexible during the upstroke and stiff during the downstroke. Inserting a variable stiffness mechanism into the leading edge spar affects its structural stability. The model for the spar-spine system was formulated in terms of the well-known Mathieu's equation, in which the compliant spine was modeled as a torsional spring with a sinusoidal stiffness function. Experimental data was used to validate the model and results show agreement within 11%. The structural stability of the leading edge spar-spine system was determined analytically and graphically using a phase plane plot and Strutt diagrams. Lastly, a torsional viscous damper was added to the leading edge spar-spine model to investigate the effect of damping on stability. Results show that for the un-damped case, the leading edge spar-spine response was stable and bounded; however, there were areas of instability that appear for a range of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. Results also show that there exist a damping ratio between 0.2 and 0.5, for which the leading edge spar-spine system was stable for all values of spine upstroke and downstroke stiffnesses. PMID:26502210

  13. Vibration analysis of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) using SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edighoffer, H.

    1980-01-01

    The structural modeling of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) utilizing the SPAR system of computer programs for vibration analysis is discussed. The technical areas of interest were: (1) development of the LDEF finite element model; (2) derivation of tray effective panel stiffness matrix using finite element tray models; (3) assessment of attachment conditions and end fitting flexibility by comparing SPAR with test static displacements; (4) SPAR grouping; and (5) derivation of the LDEF frequencies and mode shapes and comparing them with tests. Special detailed finite element modeling was required to obtain good agreement between analytical and test vibration modes. An orthotropic panel in the overall model was developed. Orthotropic stiffness for this panel were obtained from finely detailed statically loaded SPAR models which included stiffness and allowed for partial relative sliding of the tray clamping attachments. Sensitivity to LDEF joint boundary conditions was determined, and static test data proved valuable in assessing modeling of local end fittings.

  14. SPAR Model Structural Efficiencies

    SciTech Connect

    John Schroeder; Dan Henry

    2013-04-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are supporting initiatives aimed at improving the quality of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Included in these initiatives are the resolution of key technical issues that are have been judged to have the most significant influence on the baseline core damage frequency of the NRC’s Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models and licensee PRA models. Previous work addressed issues associated with support system initiating event analysis and loss of off-site power/station blackout analysis. The key technical issues were: • Development of a standard methodology and implementation of support system initiating events • Treatment of loss of offsite power • Development of standard approach for emergency core cooling following containment failure Some of the related issues were not fully resolved. This project continues the effort to resolve outstanding issues. The work scope was intended to include substantial collaboration with EPRI; however, EPRI has had other higher priority initiatives to support. Therefore this project has addressed SPAR modeling issues. The issues addressed are • SPAR model transparency • Common cause failure modeling deficiencies and approaches • Ac and dc modeling deficiencies and approaches • Instrumentation and control system modeling deficiencies and approaches

  15. Analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings with special reference to torsion and load transference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhn, Paul

    1936-01-01

    This report deals with the analysis of 2-spar cantilever wings in torsion, taking cognizance of the fact that the spars are not independent, but are interconnected by ribs and other structural members. The principles of interaction are briefly explained, showing that the mutual relief action occurring depends on the "pure torsional stiffness" of the wing cross section. Various practical methods of analysis are outlined. The "Friedrichs-Von Karman equations" are shown to require the least amount of labor. Numerical examples by the several methods of analysis are given and the agreement between the calculation and experiment is shown.

  16. SPAR data handling utilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giles, G. L.; Haftka, R. T.

    1978-01-01

    The SPAR computer software system is a collection of processors that perform particular steps in the finite-element structural analysis procedure. The data generated by each processor are stored on a data base complex residing on an auxiliary storage device, and these data are then used by subsequent processors. The SPAR data handling utilities use routines to transfer data between the processors and the data base complex. A detailed description of the data base complex organization is presented. A discussion of how these SPAR data handling utilities are used in an application program to perform desired user functions is given with the steps necessary to convert an existing program to a SPAR processor by incorporating these utilities. Finally, a sample SPAR processor is included to illustrate the use of the data handling utilities.

  17. Aeroelastic airfoil smart spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Skott; Pastore, Christopher M.; Garfinkle, Moishe

    1993-01-01

    Aircraft wings and rotor-blades are subject to undesirable bending and twisting excursions that arise from unsteady aerodynamic forces during high speed flight, abrupt maneuvers, or hard landings. These bending excursions can range in amplitude from wing-tip flutter to failure. A continuous-filament construction 'smart' laminated composite box-beam spar is described which corrects itself when subject to undesirable bending excursions or flutter. The load-bearing spar is constructed so that any tendency for the wing or rotor-blade to bend from its normal position is met by opposite twisting of the spar to restore the wing to its normal position. Experimental and theoretical characterization of these spars was made to evaluate the torsion-flexure coupling associated with symmetric lay-ups. The materials used were uniweave AS-4 graphite and a matrix comprised of Shell 8132 resin and U-40 hardener. Experimental tests were conducted on five spars to determine spar twist and bend as a function of load for 0, 17, 30, 45 and 60 deg fiber angle lay-ups. Symmetric fiber lay-ups do exhibit torsion-flexure couplings. Predictions of the twist and bend versus load were made for different fiber orientations in laminated spars using a spline function structural analysis. The analytical results were compared with experimental results for validation. Excellent correlation between experimental and analytical values was found.

  18. An integrated structural strength analysis method for Spar type floating wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhi-qiang; Liu, Yi; Wang, Jin

    2016-04-01

    An integrated structural strength analysis method for a Spar type floating wind turbine is proposed in this paper, and technical issues related to turbine structure modeling and stress combination are also addressed. The NREL-5MW "Hywind" Spar type wind turbine is adopted as study object. Time-domain dynamic coupled simulations are performed by a fully-coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool, FAST, on the purpose of obtaining the dynamic characteristics of the floating wind turbine, and determining parameters for design load cases of finite element calculation. Then design load cases are identified, and finite element analyses are performed for these design load cases. The structural stresses due to wave-induced loads and wind-induced loads are calculated, and then combined to assess the structural strength of the floating wind turbine. The feasibility of the proposed structural strength analysis method for floating wind turbines is then validated.

  19. The NRC's SPAR Models: Current Status, Future Development, and Modeling Issues

    SciTech Connect

    Robert F. Buell

    2008-09-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) play an increasingly important role in the regulatory framework of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relies on a set of plant-specific Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models to provide critical risk-based input to the regulatory process. The Significance Determination Process (SDP), Management Directive 8.3 - NRC Incident Investigation Program, Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) and Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) programs are among the regulatory initiatives that receive significant input from the SPAR models. Other uses of the SPAR models include: Screening & Resolution of Generic Safety Issues, License Amendment reviews and Notice of Enforcement Discretion (NOEDs). This paper presents the current status of SPAR model development activities, future development objectives, and issues related to the development, verification and maintenance of the SPAR models.

  20. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  1. Dynamic testing and analysis of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izapanah, Amir P.; Baucon, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist elastic coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars, representative of the primary load carrying structure within a helicopter rotor blade, was manufactured using four plies of woven graphite/epoxy cloth 'prepreg.' These spars were non-circular in cross section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three cross-sectional geometries were developed: square, D-shape, and flattened ellipse. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models developed in MSC/NASTRAN. Five global or 'non-shell' modes were identified within the 0-2000 Hz range for each spar. The frequencies and associated mode shapes for the D-shape spar were correlated with analytical results, showing agreement within 13.8 percent. Frequencies corresponding to the five global mode shapes for the square spar agreed within 9.5 percent of the analytical results. Five global modes were similarly identified for the elliptical spar and agreed within 4.9 percent of the respective analytical results.

  2. Substructure analysis using NICE/SPAR and applications of force to linear and nonlinear structures. [spacecraft masts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Razzaq, Zia; Prasad, Venkatesh; Darbhamulla, Siva Prasad; Bhati, Ravinder; Lin, Cai

    1987-01-01

    Parallel computing studies are presented for a variety of structural analysis problems. Included are the substructure planar analysis of rectangular panels with and without a hole, the static analysis of space mast, using NICE/SPAR and FORCE, and substructure analysis of plane rigid-jointed frames using FORCE. The computations are carried out on the Flex/32 MultiComputer using one to eighteen processors. The NICE/SPAR runstream samples are documented for the panel problem. For the substructure analysis of plane frames, a computer program is developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of a substructuring technique when FORCE is enforced. Ongoing research activities for an elasto-plastic stability analysis problem using FORCE, and stability analysis of the focus problem using NICE/SPAR are briefly summarized. Speedup curves for the panel, the mast, and the frame problems provide a basic understanding of the effectiveness of parallel computing procedures utilized or developed, within the domain of the parameters considered. Although the speedup curves obtained exhibit various levels of computational efficiency, they clearly demonstrate the excellent promise which parallel computing holds for the structural analysis problem. Source code is given for the elasto-plastic stability problem and the FORCE program.

  3. Piezoelectric energy harvesting from multifunctional wing spars for UAVs: Part 1. Coupled modeling and preliminary analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erturk, A.; Anton, S. R.; Inman, D. J.

    2009-03-01

    This paper discusses the basic design factors for modifying an original wing spar to a multifunctional load-bearing - energy harvester wing spar. A distributed-parameter electromechanical formulation is given for modeling of a multilayer piezoelectric power generator beam for different combinations of the electrical outputs of piezoceramic layers. In addition to the coupled vibration response and voltage response expressions for a multimorph, strength formulations are given in order to estimate the maximum load input that can be sustained by the cantilevered structure without failure for a given safety factor. Embedding piezoceramics into an original wing spar for power generation tends to reduce the maximum load that can be sustained without failure and increase the total mass due to the brittle nature and large mass densities of typical piezoelectric ceramics. Two case studies are presented for demonstration. The theoretical case study discusses modification of a rectangular wing spar to a 3-layer generator wing spar with a certain restriction on mass addition for fixed dimensions. Power generation and strength analyses are provided using the electromechanical model. The experimental case study considers a 9-layer generator beam with aluminum, piezoceramic, Kapton and epoxy layers and investigates its power generation and load-bearing performances experimentally and analytically. This structure constitutes the main body of the multifunctional self-charging structure concept proposed by the authors. The second part of this work (experiments and storage applications) employs this multi-layer generator along with the thin-film battery layers in order to charge the battery layers using the electrical outputs of the piezoceramic layers.

  4. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  5. Study of composite wind turbine spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Syed Shahrukh

    This report presents a theoretical, numerical and experimental study of composite wind turbine spars under bending loads. Spars were made from commercially available glass/ carbon fiber material. The spars were composed of uniaxial (0°) flanges and biaxial (+/-45°) shear webs. Items of particular study were co-block polymer additives in vinyl ester resins, a presumably new spar design, and using carbon fiber pultrusions for spar caps (flanges). Composites are very strong and thus tend to be thin, which exacerbates the problem of buckling. Further, fibers also buckle at the micro level, leading to lower effective compression strength than tensile strength of a composite. Many structures tend to buckle in out of plane direction which can cause early and abrupt failure. A 3-point bend test rig was manufactured in-house for experimentally testing composite spars. The experiments indicated abrupt failure without any sign or other form of damage. Limited number of spars was made with slightly different construction. All spars were subjected to same testing environment. Finite element analyses were performed in order to shed light on the failure mechanisms leading to catastrophic failure. The FE code Ansys was used for the analyses. 3D models were developed, loads were applied, and linear elastic static as well as buckling analyses were performed. The results obtained from analysis were in reasonable agreement with the experimental tests.

  6. The Origins of the SPAR-H Method's Performance Shaping Factor Multipliers

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Harold S. Blackman

    2007-08-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method has proved to be a reliable, easy-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor (PSF) multipliers upon those nominal error rates. SPAR-H uses eight PSFs with multipliers typically corresponding to nominal, degraded, and severely degraded human performance for individual PSFs. Additionally, some PSFs feature multipliers to reflect enhanced performance. Although SPAR-H enjoys widespread use among industry and regulators, current source documents on SPAR-H such as NUREG/CR-6883 do not provide a clear account of the origin of these multipliers. The present paper redresses this shortcoming and documents the historic development of the SPAR-H PSF multipliers, from the initial use of nominal error rates, to the selection of the eight PSFs, to the mapping of multipliers to available data sources such as a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). Where error rates were not readily derived from THERP and other sources, expert judgment was used to extrapolate appropriate values. In documenting key background information on the multipliers, this paper provides a much needed cross-reference for human reliability practitioners and researchers of SPAR-H to validate analyses and research findings.

  7. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley; Dana L. Kelly; Ronald L. Boring; William J. Galyean

    2012-06-01

    Step-by-step guidance was developed recently at Idaho National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the use of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This work was done to address SPAR-H user needs, specifically requests for additional guidance on the proper application of various aspects of the methodology. This paper overviews the steps of the SPAR-H analysis process and highlights some of the most important insights gained during the development of the step-by-step directions. This supplemental guidance for analysts is applicable when plant-specific information is available, and goes beyond the general guidance provided in existing SPAR-H documentation. The steps highlighted in this paper are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff.

  8. SPAR thermal analysis processors reference manual, system level 16. Volume 1: Program executive. Volume 2: Theory. Volume 3: Demonstration problems. Volume 4: Experimental thermal element capability. Volume 5: Programmer reference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlowe, M. B.; Moore, R. A.; Whetstone, W. D.

    1979-01-01

    User instructions are given for performing linear and nonlinear steady state and transient thermal analyses with SPAR thermal analysis processors TGEO, SSTA, and TRTA. It is assumed that the user is familiar with basic SPAR operations and basic heat transfer theory.

  9. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  10. Analysis of genetic variation in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) genotypes with various agronomical traits using SPAR methods.

    PubMed

    Satish, Lakkakula; Shilpha, Jayabalan; Pandian, Subramani; Rency, Arockiam Sagina; Rathinapriya, Periyasamy; Ceasar, Stanislaus Antony; Largia, Muthiah Joe Virgin; Kumar, Are Ashok; Ramesh, Manikandan

    2016-01-15

    Genetic variation among 45 genotypes of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) representing seven subpopulations was assessed using three single primer amplification reaction (SPAR) methods viz., inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR), random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and directed amplification of minisatellite-region DNA (DAMD). Totally 15 ISSR, 8 RAPD and 7 DAMD primers generated 263 amplification products, accounting for 84.6% polymorphism across all the genotypes. The Mantel's test of correlation revealed the best correlation between ISSR and cumulative data with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84. Assessment of population diversity indicated that the maximum intra population genetic diversity was recorded among high FeZn lines (HFL) having maximum values of Nei's genetic diversity (h) (0.244), Shannon information index (I) (0.368) and the percentage of polymorphic loci (Pp) (72.65%) while the corresponding lowest values of 0.074, 0.109 and 17.95% respectively were observed among the members of MDT subpopulation. The mean coefficient of gene differentiation (GST) and the gene flow (Nm) between populations were observed to be 0.396 and 0.7680 respectively. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggested that maximum genetic variation exists within populations (95%) than among populations (5%). Thus the information obtained from this study could be utilized in sorghum breeding programmes for the development of varieties with improved nutrition and agronomic values in future. PMID:26515517

  11. Sparring and neurological function in professional boxers.

    PubMed

    Stiller, John W; Yu, Steven S; Brenner, Lisa A; Langenberg, Patricia; Scrofani, Phillip; Pannella, Patrick; Hsu, Edbert B; Roberts, Darryl W; Monsell, Ray M T; Binks, Sidney W; Guzman, Alvaro; Postolache, Teodor T

    2014-01-01

    Despite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury, limited research has been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., training under the tutelage of an experienced boxing coach for the purpose of improving skills and/or fitness) and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237) who competed in Maryland between 2003 and 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index, CSI) and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT) and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test, SRT). Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure) were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT) and balance (SRT). A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer's physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety. PMID:25101253

  12. Sparring and Neurological Function in Professional Boxers

    PubMed Central

    Stiller, John W.; Yu, Steven S.; Brenner, Lisa A.; Langenberg, Patricia; Scrofani, Phillip; Pannella, Patrick; Hsu, Edbert B.; Roberts, Darryl W.; Monsell, Ray M. T.; Binks, Sidney W.; Guzman, Alvaro; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2014-01-01

    Despite increased interest regarding the potentially long-term negative impact of chronic traumatic brain injury, limited research has been conducted regarding such injuries and neurological outcomes in real world settings. To increase understanding regarding the relationship between sparring (e.g., training under the tutelage of an experienced boxing coach for the purpose of improving skills and/or fitness) and neurological functioning, professional boxers (n = 237) who competed in Maryland between 2003 and 2008 completed measures regarding sparring exposure (Cumulative Sparring Index, CSI) and performance on tests of cognition (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT) and balance (Sharpened Romberg Test, SRT). Measures were completed prior to boxing matches. Higher scores on the CSI (increased sparring exposure) were associated with poorer performance on both tests of cognition (SDMT) and balance (SRT). A threshold effect was noted regarding performance on the SDMT, with those reporting CSI values greater than about 150 experiencing a decline in cognition. A history of frequent and/or intense sparring may pose a significant risk for developing boxing associated neurological sequelae. Implementing administration of clinically meaningful tests before bouts, such as the CSI, SDMT, and/or the SRT, as well as documentation of results into the boxer’s physicals or medical profiles may be an important step for improving boxing safety. PMID:25101253

  13. Postflight analysis of the single-axis acoustic system on SPAR VI and recommendations for future flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naumann, R. J.; Oran, W. A.; Whymark, R. R.; Rey, C.

    1981-01-01

    The single axis acoustic levitator that was flown on SPAR VI malfunctioned. The results of a series of tests, analyses, and investigation of hypotheses that were undertaken to determine the probable cause of failure are presented, together with recommendations for future flights of the apparatus. The most probable causes of the SPAR VI failure were lower than expected sound intensity due to mechanical degradation of the sound source, and an unexpected external force that caused the experiment sample to move radially and eventually be lost from the acoustic energy well.

  14. SPAR reference manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1976-01-01

    The functions and operating rules of the SPAR system, which is a group of computer programs used primarily to perform stress, buckling, and vibrational analyses of linear finite element systems, were given. The following subject areas were discussed: basic information, structure definition, format system matrix processors, utility programs, static solutions, stresses, sparse matrix eigensolver, dynamic response, graphics, and substructure processors.

  15. Guidance on Dependence Assessment in SPAR-H

    SciTech Connect

    April M. Whaley

    2012-06-01

    As part of the effort to develop the SPAR-H user guidance, particular attention was paid to the assessment of dependence in order to address user questions about proper application of dependence. This paper presents a discussion of dependence from a psychological perspective and provides guidance on applying this information during the qualitative analysis of dependence to ensure more realistic and appropriate dependence assessments with the SPAR-H method. While this guidance was developed with SPAR-H in mind, it may be informative to other human reliability analysis methods that also use a THERP-based dependence approach, particularly if applied at the human failure event level.

  16. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project: SPAR 10

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1986-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) X Final Report contains the compilation of the post-flight reports from each of the Principal Investigators (PIs) on the four selected science payloads, in addition to the engineering report as documented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This combined effort also describes pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication and testing, all of which are expected to contribute to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. The SPAR project was coordinated and managed by MSFC as part of the Microgravity Science and Applications (MSA) program of the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) of NASA Headquarters. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the tenth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled, Containerless Processing Technology, SPAR Experiment 76-20/3; Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites, SPAR Experiment 76-22/3; Comparative Alloy Solidification, SPAR Experiment 76-36/3; and Foam Copper, SPAR Experiment 77-9/1R.

  17. Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) project, SPAR 9

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poorman, R. (Compiler)

    1984-01-01

    SPAR 9 (R-17) payload configuration, rocket performance, payload support, science payload instrumentation, and payload recovery are discussed. Directional solidification of magnetic composites, directional solidification of immiscible aluminum-indium alloys, and comparative alloy solidification experiments are reported.

  18. HUMAN ERROR QUANTIFICATION USING PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN THE SPAR-H METHOD

    SciTech Connect

    Harold S. Blackman; David I. Gertman; Ronald L. Boring

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes a cognitively based human reliability analysis (HRA) quantification technique for estimating the human error probabilities (HEPs) associated with operator and crew actions at nuclear power plants. The method described here, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method, was developed to aid in characterizing and quantifying human performance at nuclear power plants. The intent was to develop a defensible method that would consider all factors that may influence performance. In the SPAR-H approach, calculation of HEP rates is especially straightforward, starting with pre-defined nominal error rates for cognitive vs. action-oriented tasks, and incorporating performance shaping factor multipliers upon those nominal error rates.

  19. Space Processing Application Rocket project, SPAR 5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Schaefer, D. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    Post flight results and analysis are presented on the following experiments: 'Agglomeration in Immiscible Liquids', 'Contained Polycrystalline Solidification in Low G', 'The Direct Observation of Dendrite Remelting and Macrosegregation in Casting', and 'Uniform Dispersion by Crystallization'. An engineering report on the performance of the SPAR Black Brant rocket is also included. Much useful data and information were accumulated for directing and developing experimental techniques and investigations toward an expanding commercially beneficial program of materials processing in the coming shuttle era.

  20. SPAR reference manual update SPAR level 15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whetstone, W. D.

    1980-01-01

    Command runstream elements are presented for analyzing structural systems that are composed of a number of cyclically symmetrical sectors. Provisions are included for systems in which each cyclically symmetrical sector also possesses a plane of reflective symmetry. The following types of analysis may be performed: static analysis with and without preload, vibrational analysis with and without preload, and buckling analysis with and without preload.

  1. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  2. Nonlinear random motion analysis of a spar platform's coupled heave-pitch considering second-order wave loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shuxiao; Tang, Yougang; Li, Wei

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we consider first- and second-order random wave loads and the effects of time-varying displacement volume and transient wave elevation to establish motion equations of the Spar platform's coupled heave-pitch. We generated random wave loads based on frequency-domain wave load transfer functions and the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) wave spectrum, designed program codes to solve the motion equations, and then simulated the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform in the time domain. We then calculated and compared the motion responses in different sea conditions and separately investigated the effects of second-order random wave loads and transient wave elevation. The results show that the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform are primarily dominated by wave height and the characteristic wave period, the latter of which has a greater impact. Second-order mean wave loads mainly affect the average heave value. The platform's pitch increases after the second-order low frequency wave loads are taken into account. The platform's heave is underestimated if the transient wave elevation term in the motion equations is neglected.

  3. A New Approach to Quantify Level 2 SPAR Models in SAPHIRE 8

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma; John Schroeder; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood; Martin Sattison

    2012-11-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (USNRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Level 2 models for U.S. commercial nuclear power plants has historically used a partitioning approach for plant damage state (PDS) binning and model quantification since late 1990s [1]. While this approach has the advantage to be able to identify the details of the severe accident sequences with one or more individual PDS vector characters, the Level 2 model quantification process is tedious and error-prone with multiple steps involved. A new approach to quantify Level 2 SPAR models was recently developed and implemented in the latest SAPHIRE Version 8 [2]. The new approach removes the partition rules and greatly simplifies the quantification process.

  4. A concept study of a carbon spar cap design for a 80m wind turbine blade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosemeier, M.; Bätge, M.

    2014-06-01

    The buckling resistance is a key design driver for large wind turbine blades with a significant influence on the material costs. During the structural design process the choice was made for carbon spar caps and two shear webs, which were set relatively far apart in order to stabilize the panels. This design presented a major challenge for the stability of the spar caps. The topology of these spar caps has been modified with regard to stability, comparing a continuous spar cap with split spar cap concepts and considering both lay-ups with hybrid carbon glass spar caps or sandwich concepts. Within those concepts, parametric studies were conducted varying different geometrical parameters of the spar caps and its layups. In order to determine the buckling resistance of the spar cap, an analytical model considering a 2D cross section discretized blade model was utilized to select the basic concept, after which a 3D numerical finite element model taking the whole blade into account was used to evaluate the chosen design concepts. The stability limit state analysis was conducted according to the certification scheme of GL guideline 2012. The various concepts were evaluated based on the blade's mass, tip deflection and modal properties. The results of this design process of the spar caps and the evaluation of the used analysis tools are presented within the paper.

  5. Turbine blade with spar and shell

    DOEpatents

    Davies, Daniel O.; Peterson, Ross H.

    2012-04-24

    A turbine blade with a spar and shell construction in which the spar and the shell are both secured within two platform halves. The spar and the shell each include outward extending ledges on the bottom ends that fit within grooves formed on the inner sides of the platform halves to secure the spar and the shell against radial movement when the two platform halves are joined. The shell is also secured to the spar by hooks extending from the shell that slide into grooves formed on the outer surface of the spar. The hooks form a serpentine flow cooling passage between the shell and the spar. The spar includes cooling holes on the lower end in the leading edge region to discharge cooling air supplied through the platform root and into the leading edge cooling channel.

  6. Elimination sequence optimization for SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hogan, Harry A.

    1986-01-01

    SPAR is a large-scale computer program for finite element structural analysis. The program allows user specification of the order in which the joints of a structure are to be eliminated since this order can have significant influence over solution performance, in terms of both storage requirements and computer time. An efficient elimination sequence can improve performance by over 50% for some problems. Obtaining such sequences, however, requires the expertise of an experienced user and can take hours of tedious effort to affect. Thus, an automatic elimination sequence optimizer would enhance productivity by reducing the analysts' problem definition time and by lowering computer costs. Two possible methods for automating the elimination sequence specifications were examined. Several algorithms based on the graph theory representations of sparse matrices were studied with mixed results. Significant improvement in the program performance was achieved, but sequencing by an experienced user still yields substantially better results. The initial results provide encouraging evidence that the potential benefits of such an automatic sequencer would be well worth the effort.

  7. Full time-domain nonlinear coupled dynamic analysis of a truss spar and its mooring/riser system in irregular wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, MinDong; Teng, Bin; Xiao, LongFei; Ning, DeZhi; Shi, ZhongMin; Qu, Yan

    2014-01-01

    A new full time-domain nonlinear coupled method has been established and then applied to predict the responses of a Truss Spar in irregular wave. For the coupled analysis, a second-order time-domain approach is developed to calculate the wave forces, and a finite element model based on rod theory is established in three dimensions in a global coordinate system. In numerical implementation, the higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) is employed to solve the velocity potential, and the 4th-order Adams-Bashforth-Moultn scheme is used to update the second-order wave surface. In deriving convergent solutions, the hull displacements and mooring tensions are kept consistent at the fairlead and the motion equations of platform and mooring-lines/risers are solved simultaneously using Newmark- β integration scheme including Newton-Raphson iteration. Both the coupled quasi-static analysis and the coupled dynamic analysis are performed. The numerical simulation results are also compared with the model test results, and they coincide very well as a whole. The slow-drift responses can be clearly observed in the time histories of displacements and mooring tensions. Some important characteristics of the coupled responses are concluded.

  8. Pulsed eddy current inspection of CF-188 inner wing spar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horan, Peter Francis

    Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CF-188 Hornet aircraft engineering authorities have stated a requirement for a Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technique to detect Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) in the inner wing spars without fastener or composite wing skin removal. Current radiographic inspections involve significant aircraft downtime, and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) inspection is proposed as a solution. The aluminum inner wing spars of CF-188 Hornet aircraft may undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) along the spar between the fasteners that secure carbon-fiber/ epoxy composite skin to the wing. Inspection of the spar through the wing skin is required to avoid wing disassembly. The thickness of the wing skin varies between 8 and 20 mm (0.3 to 0.8 inch) and fasteners may be either titanium or ferrous. PEC generated by a probe centered over a fastener, demonstrates capability of detecting simulated cracks within spars with the wing skin present. Comparison of signals from separate sensors, mounted to either side of the excitation coil, is used to detect differences in induced eddy current fields, which arise in the presence of cracks. To overcome variability in PEC signal response due to variation in 1) skin thickness, 2) fastener material and size, and 3) centering over fasteners, a large calibration data set is acquired. Multi-dimensional scores from a Modified Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of the data are reduced to one dimension (1D) using a Discriminant Analysis method. Under inspection conditions, calibrated PCA scores combined with discriminant analysis permit rapid real time go/no-go PEC detection of cracks in CF-188 inner wing spar. Probe designs using both pickup coils and Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) sensors were tested on samples with the same ferrous and titanium fasteners found on the CF-188. Flaws were correctly detected at lift-offs of up to 21mm utilizing a variety of insulating skin materials simulating the carbon-fibre reinforced polymer

  9. Space processing applications rocket project. SPAR 8

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chassay, R. P. (Editor)

    1984-01-01

    The Space Processing Applications Rocket Project (SPAR) VIII Final Report contains the engineering report prepared at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as well as the three reports from the principal investigators. These reports also describe pertinent portions of ground-based research leading to the ultimate selection of the flight sample composition, including design, fabrication, and testing, all of which are expected to contribute immeasurably to an improved comprehension of materials processing in space. This technical memorandum is directed entirely to the payload manifest flown in the eighth of a series of SPAR flights conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and includes the experiments entitled Glass Formation Experiment SPAR 74-42/1R, Glass Fining Experiment in Low-Gravity SPAR 77-13/1, and Dynamics of Liquid Bubbles SPAR Experiment 77-18/2.

  10. Buckling Tests with a Spar-rib Grill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinhold, Josef

    1940-01-01

    The present report deals with a comparison of mathematically and experimentally defined buckling loads of a spar-rib grill, on the assumption of constant spar section, and infinitely closely spaced ribs with rigidity symmetrical to the grill center. The loads are applied as equal bending moments at both spar ends, as compression in the line connecting the joints, and in the spar center line as the assumedly uniformly distributed spar weight.

  11. Design, Manufacture and Testing of A Bend-Twist D-Spar

    SciTech Connect

    Ong, Cheng-Huat; Tsai, Stephen W.

    1999-06-01

    Studies have indicated that an adaptive wind turbine blade design can significantly enhance the performance of the wind turbine blade on energy capture and load mitigation. In order to realize the potential benefits of aeroelastic tailoring, a bend-twist D-spar, which is the backbone of a blade, was designed and fabricated to achieve the objectives of having maximum bend-twist coupling and fulfilling desirable structural properties (031 & GJ). Two bend-twist D-spars, a hybrid of glass and carbon fibers and an all-carbon D-spar, were fabricated using a bladder process. One of the D-spars, the hybrid D-spar, was subjected to a cantilever static test and modal testing. Various parameters such as materials, laminate schedule, thickness and internal rib were examined in designing a bend-twist D-spar. The fabrication tooling, the lay-up process and the joint design for two symmetric clamshells are described in this report. Finally, comparisons between the experimental test results and numerical results are presented. The comparisons indicate that the numerical analysis (static and modal analysis) agrees well with test results.

  12. Drilling and production from a floating spar

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, I.H.; Carroll, J.P.

    1994-12-31

    A deepwater drilling and production platform has been designed based on a floating spar. The spar is a catenary-moored cylindrical vessel having a deep draft which minimizes heave motions. The concept is an economic competitor with other deep water designs such as compliant towers and tension leg platforms. The spar`s oil storage capacity makes it particularly applicable for remote areas where pipeline infrastructure is unavailable and production is primarily from oil reservoirs. Without the need for a swivel, offloading of oil can be accomplished either directly from the spar, by use of a floating hose and support vessel, or by transfer to an offloading buoy. The concept is compatible with early production or phased development scenarios, permits surface completions of producing and injection wells, and allows for direct well intervention. The ability to reposition the spar by manipulations of the mooring lines favors a system of individual wellheads on the seafloor. Wells can be drilled, completed, and produced without pulling the drilling riser. When production from the field reaches its economic limit, the entire system can be towed to a new location and reused.

  13. SPAR-H Step-by-Step Guidance

    SciTech Connect

    W. J. Galyean; A. M. Whaley; D. L. Kelly; R. L. Boring

    2011-05-01

    This guide provides step-by-step guidance on the use of the SPAR-H method for quantifying Human Failure Events (HFEs). This guide is intended to be used with the worksheets provided in: 'The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method,' NUREG/CR-6883, dated August 2005. Each step in the process of producing a Human Error Probability (HEP) is discussed. These steps are: Step-1, Categorizing the HFE as Diagnosis and/or Action; Step-2, Rate the Performance Shaping Factors; Step-3, Calculate PSF-Modified HEP; Step-4, Accounting for Dependence, and; Step-5, Minimum Value Cutoff. The discussions on dependence are extensive and include an appendix that describes insights obtained from the psychology literature.

  14. Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  15. Design study of prestressed rotor spar concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleich, D.

    1980-01-01

    Studies on the Bell Helicopter 540 Rotor System of the AH-1G helicopter were performed. The stiffness, mass and geometric configurations of the Bell blade were matched to give a dynamically similar prestressed composite blade. A multi-tube, prestressed composite spar blade configuration was designed for superior ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost. The composite spar prestresses, imparted during fabrication, are chosen to maintain compression in the high strength cryogenically stretchformed 304-L stainless steel liner and tension in the overwrapped HTS graphite fibers under operating loads. This prestressing results in greatly improved crack propagation and fatigue resistance as well as enhanced fiber stiffness properties. Advantages projected for the prestressed composite rotor spar concept include increased operational life and improved ballistic survivability at low life cycle cost.

  16. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  17. Nonlinear random motion analysis of coupled heave-pitch motions of a spar platform considering 1st-order and 2nd-order wave loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shuxiao; Tang, Yougang; Li, Wei

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we consider first- and second-order random wave loads and the effects of time-varying displacement volume and transient wave elevation to establish motion equations of the Spar platform's coupled heave-pitch. We generated random wave loads based on frequency-domain wave load transfer functions and the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) wave spectrum, designed program codes to solve the motion equations, and then simulated the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform in the time domain. We then calculated and compared the motion responses in different sea conditions and separately investigated the effects of second-order random wave loads and transient wave elevation. The results show that the coupled heave-pitch motion responses of the platform are primarily dominated by wave height and the characteristic wave period, the latter of which has a greater impact. Second-order mean wave loads mainly affect the average heave value. The platform's pitch increases after the second-order low frequency wave loads are taken into account. The platform's heave is underestimated if the transient wave elevation term in the motion equations is neglected.

  18. Space Processing Applications Rocket project, SPAR 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler); Chassay, R. (Compiler)

    1976-01-01

    The experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of nine scientific experiments conducted during the first Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight are summarized. The nine individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: solidification of Pb-Sb eutectic, feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams, characterization of rocket vibration environment by measurement of mixing of two liquids, uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, direct observation of solidification as a function of gravity levels, casting thoria dispersion-strengthened interfaces, contained polycrystalline solidification, and preparation of a special alloy for manufacturing of magnetic hard superconductor under zero-g environment.

  19. Space Processing Applications Rocket project SPAR III

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F.

    1978-01-01

    This document presented the engineering report and science payload III test report and summarized the experiment objectives, design/operational concepts, and final results of each of five scientific experiments conducted during the third Space Processing Applications Rocket (SPAR) flight flown by NASA in December 1976. The five individual SPAR experiments, covering a wide and varied range of scientific materials processing objectives, were entitled: Liquid Mixing, Interaction of Bubbles with Solidification Interfaces, Epitaxial Growth of Single Crystal Film, Containerless Processing of Beryllium, and Contact and Coalescence of Viscous Bodies.

  20. Sparring and Cognitive Function in Professional Boxers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Barry D.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Professional boxers provided information about their careers and training practices and completed neuropsychological testing. Test performance did not relate to age, boxing record, career length, or knockout history. The amount of sparring inversely related to performance on several of the tests, with impairment in the areas of attention,…

  1. Diffusion bonded boron/aluminum spar-shell fan blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, C. E. K.; Cutler, J. L.; Fisher, W. J.; Memmott, J. V. W.

    1980-01-01

    Design and process development tasks intended to demonstrate composite blade application in large high by-pass ratio turbofan engines are described. Studies on a 3.0 aspect radio space and shell construction fan blade indicate a potential weight savings for a first stage fan rotor of 39% when a hollow titanium spar is employed. An alternate design which featured substantial blade internal volume filled with titanium honeycomb inserts achieved a 14% potential weight savings over the B/M rotor system. This second configuration requires a smaller development effort and entails less risk to translate a design into a successful product. The feasibility of metal joining large subsonic spar and shell fan blades was demonstrated. Initial aluminum alloy screening indicates a distinct preference for AA6061 aluminum alloy for use as a joint material. The simulated airfoil pressings established the necessity of rigid air surfaces when joining materials of different compressive rigidities. The two aluminum alloy matrix choices both were successfully formed into blade shells.

  2. SPAR electrophoretic separation experiments, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cosmi, F. M.

    1978-01-01

    The opportunity to use a sounding rocket for separation experiments is a logical continuation of earlier electrophoresis demonstrations and experiments. A free-flow electrophoresis system, developed under the Advanced Applications Flight Experiment (AAFE) Program, was designed so that it would fit into a rocket payload. The SPAR program provides a unique opportunity to complete the intial stages of microgravity testing prior to any Shuttle applications. The objective of the work described in this report was to ensure proper operating parameters for the defined experimental samples to be used in the SPAR Electrophoretic Separation Experiment. Ground based experiments were undertaken not only to define flight parameters but also to serve as a point of comparison for flight results. Possible flight experiment problem areas were also studied such as sample interaction due to sedimentation, concentration effects and storage effects. Late in the program anomalies of field strengths and buffer conductivities were also investigated.

  3. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe; Julie L. Marble

    2005-09-01

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.

  4. Approximations for column effect in airplane wing spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warner, Edward P; Short, Mac

    1927-01-01

    The significance attaching to "column effect" in airplane wing spars has been increasingly realized with the passage of time, but exact computations of the corrections to bending moment curves resulting from the existence of end loads are frequently omitted because of the additional labor involved in an analysis by rigorously correct methods. The present report represents an attempt to provide for approximate column effect corrections that can be graphically or otherwise expressed so as to be applied with a minimum of labor. Curves are plotted giving approximate values of the correction factors for single and two bay trusses of varying proportions and with various relationships between axial and lateral loads. It is further shown from an analysis of those curves that rough but useful approximations can be obtained from Perry's formula for corrected bending moment, with the assumed distance between points of inflection arbitrarily modified in accordance with rules given in the report. The discussion of general rules of variation of bending stress with axial load is accompanied by a study of the best distribution of the points of support along a spar for various conditions of loading.

  5. Preform spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade

    DOEpatents

    Livingston, Jamie T.; Driver, Howard D.; van Breugel, Sjef; Jenkins, Thomas B.; Bakhuis, Jan Willem; Billen, Andrew J.; Riahi, Amir

    2011-07-12

    A spar cap for a wind turbine rotor blade. The spar cap may include multiple preform components. The multiple preform components may be planar sheets having a swept shape with a first end and a second end. The multiple preform components may be joined by mating the first end of a first preform component to the second end of a next preform component, forming the spar cap.

  6. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  7. Quantitative environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Klovning, J.; Nilsen, E.F.

    1995-12-31

    According to regulations relating to implementation and rise of risk analysis in the petroleum activities issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, it is mandatory for an operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to establish acceptance criteria for environmental risk in the activities and carry out environmental risk analysis. This paper presents a {open_quotes}new{close_quotes} method for environmental risk analysis developed by the company. The objective has been to assist the company to meet rules and regulations and to assess and describe the environmental risk in a systematic manner. In the environmental risk analysis the most sensitive biological resource in the affected area is used to assess the environmental damage. The analytical method is based on the methodology for quantitative risk analysis related to loss of life. In addition it incorporates the effect of seasonal fluctuations in the environmental risk evaluations. The paper is describing the function of the main analytical sequences exemplified through an analysis of environmental risk related to exploration drilling in an environmental sensitive area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

  8. Risk analysis methodology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  9. 33 CFR 147.831 - Holstein Truss Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Holstein Truss Spar safety zone. 147.831 Section 147.831 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.831 Holstein Truss Spar safety zone....

  10. 33 CFR 147.831 - Holstein Truss Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Holstein Truss Spar safety zone. 147.831 Section 147.831 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.831 Holstein Truss Spar safety zone....

  11. 33 CFR 147.831 - Holstein Truss Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Holstein Truss Spar safety zone. 147.831 Section 147.831 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.831 Holstein Truss Spar safety zone....

  12. 33 CFR 147.831 - Holstein Truss Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Holstein Truss Spar safety zone. 147.831 Section 147.831 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.831 Holstein Truss Spar safety zone....

  13. 33 CFR 147.831 - Holstein Truss Spar safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Holstein Truss Spar safety zone. 147.831 Section 147.831 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.831 Holstein Truss Spar safety zone....

  14. An improved nutrient delivery system for SPAR chambers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The USDA-ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory (CSGCL), located at Beltsville, MD, maintains and operates 18 outdoor, natural sunlit plant growth chambers referred to as soil-plant-atmosphere research (SPAR) growth chambers. Each state-of-the-art SPAR chamber provides precise control over a...

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    PubMed

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). PMID:24919396

  16. Risk/Stress Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwerdtfeger, Don; Howell, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    Identifies stress as a definite health hazard and risk factor involved in a variety of health situations. Proposes that stress identification efforts be considered in environmental analysis so that a more complete approach to risk assessment and management and health hazard prevention can occur. (ML)

  17. Iceland spar and its legacy in science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristjánsson, L.

    2012-05-01

    In the late 17th century, Rasmus Bartholin and Christiaan Huygens investigated a curious optical property of crystals found at Helgustaðir in Eastern Iceland. This property which has been called double refraction, revealed in the 19th century a new aspect of light which turned out to be very useful as a probe of the internal structure of matter. Clear specimens of these crystals, an unusually pure variety of calcite, have since around 1780 been known as ''Iceland spar''. Few if any other localities yielding calcite crystals of comparable size and quality were discovered before 1900, and no alternatives for use in precision optical instrumentation were developed until the 1930s. Hundreds of tons of calcite were exported from Helgustaðir, mostly between 1850 and 1925. However, little information has been found on trading routes for the material of optical quality, so that some enigmas remain regarding its supply-demand situation. A study of the scientific literature in the period up to 1930 has revealed that results obtained with the aid of Iceland spar accelerated progress within the earth sciences (in mineralogy and petrology), physics, chemistry, and biology, even by decades. This has also influenced the development of technology and of medicine in various direct and indirect ways.

  18. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  19. Program risk analysis handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, R. G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

  20. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians. PMID:23615063

  1. ER-20037 LLNL eternal pathfinder wing spar design study report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This document outlines the results of a design study performed by EDO-FSD on the LLNL Eternal Pathfinder Wing Spar/Fuel Tank. The main focus of the design study was the weight minimization of the composite wall of the mid span spar section of the aircraft. The torque, shear, moment and pressure loading requirements, as well as LLNL`s preliminary drawings, were used to develop a reduced weight mid-span spar design. The design study also encompassed details such as the pressure bulkheads, wing rod connectors, and attachment flanges.

  2. Fabrication and testing of prestressed composite rotor blade spar specimens

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gleich, D.

    1974-01-01

    Prestressed composite spar specimens were fabricated and evaluated by crack propagation and ballistic penetration tests. The crack propagation tests on flawed specimens showed that the prestressed composite spar construction significantly suppresses crack growth. Damage from three high velocity 30 caliber projectile hits was confined to three small holes in the ballistic test specimen. No fragmentation or crack propagation was observed indicating good ballistic damage resistance. Rotor attachment approaches and improved structural performance configurations were identified. Design theory was verified by tests. The prestressed composite spar configuration consisted of a compressively prestressed high strength ARDEFORM 301 stainless steel liner overwrapped with pretensioned S-994 fiberglass.

  3. DWPF risk analysis summary

    SciTech Connect

    Shedrow, C.B.

    1990-10-01

    This document contains selected risk analysis data from Chapter 9 (Safety Analysis) of the Defense Waste Processing Facility Safety Analysis Report DWPF SAR and draft Addendum 1 to the Waste Tank Farms SAR. Although these data may be revised prior to finalization of the draft SAR and the draft addendum, they are presently the best available information and were therefore used in preparing the risk analysis portion of the DWPF Environmental Analysis (DWPF EA). This information has been extracted from those draft documents an approved under separate cover so that it can be used as reference material for the DWPF EA when it is placed in the public reading rooms. 9 refs., 4 tabs.

  4. DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    DETAIL VIEW OF INTERIOR MAIN SPACE WITH SPAR MILL EQUIPMENT IN FOREGROUND, FACING NORTH. - Douglas Aircraft Company Long Beach Plant, Aircraft Parts Sub-Assembly Building, 3855 Lakewood Boulevard, Long Beach, Los Angeles County, CA

  5. Metal spar/superhybrid shell composite fan blades. [for application to turbofan engins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salemme, C. T.; Murphy, G. C.

    1979-01-01

    The use of superhybrid materials in the manufacture and testing of large fan blades is analyzed. The FOD resistance of large metal spar/superhybrid fan blades is investigated. The technical effort reported was comprised of: (1) preliminary blade design; (2) detailed analysis of two selected superhybrid blade designs; (3) manufacture of two process evaluation blades and destructive evaluation; and (4) manufacture and whirligig testing of six prototype superhybrid blades.

  6. SPAR: a random forest-based predictor for self-interacting proteins with fine-grained domain information.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuhan; Yang, Shiping; Li, Chen; Zhang, Ziding; Song, Jiangning

    2016-07-01

    Protein self-interaction, i.e. the interaction between two or more identical proteins expressed by one gene, plays an important role in the regulation of cellular functions. Considering the limitations of experimental self-interaction identification, it is necessary to design specific bioinformatics tools for self-interacting protein (SIP) prediction from protein sequence information. In this study, we proposed an improved computational approach for SIP prediction, termed SPAR (Self-interacting Protein Analysis serveR). Firstly, we developed an improved encoding scheme named critical residues substitution (CRS), in which the fine-grained domain-domain interaction information was taken into account. Then, by employing the Random Forest algorithm, the performance of CRS was evaluated and compared with several other encoding schemes commonly used for sequence-based protein-protein interaction prediction. Through the tenfold cross-validation tests on a balanced training dataset, CRS performed the best, with the average accuracy up to 72.01 %. We further integrated CRS with other encoding schemes and identified the most important features using the mRMR (the minimum redundancy maximum relevance) feature selection method. Our SPAR model with selected features achieved an average accuracy of 92.09 % on the human-independent test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:11). Besides, we also evaluated the performance of SPAR on an independent yeast test set (the ratio of positives to negatives was about 1:8) and obtained an average accuracy of 76.96 %. The results demonstrate that SPAR is capable of achieving a reasonable performance in cross-species application. The SPAR server is freely available for academic use at http://systbio.cau.edu.cn/zzdlab/spar/ . PMID:27074717

  7. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant statusmore » are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.« less

  8. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  9. Wind blade spar cap and method of making

    DOEpatents

    Mohamed, Mansour H.

    2008-05-27

    A wind blade spar cap for strengthening a wind blade including an integral, unitary three-dimensional woven material having a first end and a second end, corresponding to a root end of the blade and a tip end of the blade, wherein the material tapers in width from the first to the second end while maintaining a constant thickness and decreasing weight therebetween, the cap being capable of being affixed to the blade for providing increased strength with controlled variation in weight from the root end to the tip end based upon the tapered width of the material thereof. The present inventions also include the method of making the wind blade spar cap and a wind blade including the wind blade spar cap.

  10. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  11. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  12. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  13. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  14. 33 CFR 147.839 - Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform... SECURITY (CONTINUED) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ACTIVITIES SAFETY ZONES § 147.839 Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform safety zone. (a) Description. Mad Dog Truss Spar Platform, Green Canyon 782 (GC 782), located at...

  15. Space processing applications rocket project SPAR 4, engineering report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, F. (Compiler)

    1980-01-01

    The materials processing experiments in space, conducted on the SPAR 4 Black Brant VC rocket, are described and discussed. The SPAR 4 payload configuration, the rocket performance, and the flight sequence are reported. The results, analyses, and anomalies of the four experiments are discussed. The experiments conducted were the uniform dispersions of crystallization processing, the contained polycrstalline solidification in low gravity, the containerless processing of ferromagnetic materials, and the containerless processing technology. The instrumentation operations, payload power relay anomaly, relay postflight operational test, and relay postflight shock test are reported.

  16. Multiple piece turbine engine airfoil with a structural spar

    DOEpatents

    Vance, Steven J.

    2011-10-11

    A multiple piece turbine airfoil having an outer shell with an airfoil tip that is attached to a root with an internal structural spar is disclosed. The root may be formed from first and second sections that include an internal cavity configured to receive and secure the one or more components forming the generally elongated airfoil. The internal structural spar may be attached to an airfoil tip and place the generally elongated airfoil in compression. The configuration enables each component to be formed from different materials to reduce the cost of the materials and to optimize the choice of material for each component.

  17. Analytical support for SPAR experiment 76-36. [thermal, convective and rotational fluid flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bourgeois, S. V.; Grodzka, P. G.; Pond, J. E.; Spradley, L. W.

    1977-01-01

    The apparatus, materials, and procedures used in an analysis of thermal, convective, and rotational fluid flow for a second series of rocket experiments of dendrite growth are described. A constitutive supercooling criterion was calculated from the thermal data. A convection analysis was made of the various cases to ensure that convective velocities will not exceed about .01 cm/sec in the low-g tests. Damping times for fluid flow generated by rocket spin-up and spin-down were also determined, so that the conditions for this experiment are generally the same as those for the SPAR experiment 74-21 study of ammonium chloride low-g crystallizations.

  18. Advanced grid-stiffened composite shells for applications in heavy-lift helicopter rotor blade spars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayanan Nampy, Sreenivas

    Modern rotor blades are constructed using composite materials to exploit their superior structural performance compared to metals. Helicopter rotor blade spars are conventionally designed as monocoque structures. Blades of the proposed Heavy Lift Helicopter are envisioned to be as heavy as 800 lbs when designed using the monocoque spar design. A new and innovative design is proposed to replace the conventional spar designs with light weight grid-stiffened composite shell. Composite stiffened shells have been known to provide excellent strength to weight ratio and damage tolerance with an excellent potential to reduce weight. Conventional stringer--rib stiffened construction is not suitable for rotor blade spars since they are limited in generating high torsion stiffness that is required for aeroelastic stability of the rotor. As a result, off-axis (helical) stiffeners must be provided. This is a new design space where innovative modeling techniques are needed. The structural behavior of grid-stiffened structures under axial, bending, and torsion loads, typically experienced by rotor blades need to be accurately predicted. The overall objective of the present research is to develop and integrate the necessary design analysis tools to conduct a feasibility study in employing grid-stiffened shells for heavy-lift rotor blade spars. Upon evaluating the limitations in state-of-the-art analytical models in predicting the axial, bending, and torsion stiffness coefficients of grid and grid-stiffened structures, a new analytical model was developed. The new analytical model based on the smeared stiffness approach was developed employing the stiffness matrices of the constituent members of the grid structure such as an arch, helical, or straight beam representing circumferential, helical, and longitudinal stiffeners. This analysis has the capability to model various stiffening configurations such as angle-grid, ortho-grid, and general-grid. Analyses were performed using an

  19. Determining aerodynamic conductance of spar chambers from energy balance measurements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The aerodynamic conductance (gA) of SPAR chambers was determined from measurements of energy balance and canopy temperature over a peanut canopy. gA was calculated from the slope of sensible heat flux (H) versus canopy-to-air temperature difference. H and the canopy-to-air temperature were varied by...

  20. Graphics and composite material computer program enhancements for SPAR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farley, G. L.; Baker, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    User documentation is provided for additional computer programs developed for use in conjunction with SPAR. These programs plot digital data, simplify input for composite material section properties, and compute lamina stresses and strains. Sample problems are presented including execution procedures, program input, and graphical output.

  1. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  2. Time-Motion and Biological Responses in Simulated Mixed Martial Arts Sparring Matches.

    PubMed

    Coswig, Victor S; Ramos, Solange de P; Del Vecchio, Fabrício B

    2016-08-01

    Coswig, VS, Ramos, SdP, and Del Vecchio, FB. Time-motion and biological responses in simulated mixed martial arts sparring matches. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2156-2163, 2016-Simulated matches are a relevant component of training for mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. This study aimed to characterize time-motion responses and investigate physiological stress and neuromuscular changes related to MMA sparring matches. Thirteen athletes with an average age of 25 ± 5 years, body mass of 81.3 ± 9.5 kg, height of 176.2 ± 5.5 cm, and time of practice in MMA of 39 ± 25 months participated in the study. The fighters executed three 5-minute rounds with 1-minute intervals. Blood and salivary samples were collected and physical tests and psychometric questionnaires administered at 3 time points: before (PRE), immediately after (POST), and 48 hours after the combat (48 h). Statistical analysis applied analysis of variance for repeated measurements. In biochemical analysis, significant changes (p ≤ 0.05) were identified between PRE and POST (glucose: 80.3 ± 12.7 to 156.5 ± 19.1 mg·ml; lactate: 4 ± 1.7 to 15.6 ± 4.8 mmol·dl), POST and 48 hours (glucose: 156.5 ± 19.1 to 87.6 ± 15.5 mg·ml; lactate: 15.6 ± 4.8 to 2.9 ± 3.5 mmol·dl; urea: 44.1 ± 8.9 to 36.3 ± 7.8 mg·ml), and PRE and 48 hours (creatine kinase [CK]: 255.8 ± 137.4 to 395.9 ± 188.7 U/L). In addition, time-motion analyses showed a total high:low intensity of 1:2 and an effort:pause ratio of 1:3. In conclusion, simulated MMA sparring matches feature moderate to high intensity and a low degree of musculoskeletal damage, which can be seen by absence of physical performance and decrease in CK. Results of the study indicate that sparring training could be introduced into competitive microcycles to improve technical and tactical aspects of MMA matches, due to the high motor specificity and low muscle damage. PMID:26817739

  3. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  4. Risk analysis and management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  5. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  6. Application of shape memory alloy (SMA) spars for aircraft maneuver enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nam, Changho; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Kim, Youdan

    2002-07-01

    Modern combat aircraft are required to achieve aggressive maneuverability and high agility performance, while maintaining handling qualities over a wide range of flight conditions. Recently, a new adaptive-structural concept called variable stiffness spar is proposed in order to increase the maneuverability of the flexible aircraft. The variable stiffness spar controls wing torsional stiffness to enhance roll performance in the complete flight envelope. However, variable stiffness spar requires the mechanical actuation system in order to rotate the Variable stiffness spar during flight. The mechanical actuation system to rotate variable stiffness spar may cause an additional weight increase. In this paper, we will apply Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) spars for aeroelastic performance enhancement. In order to explore the potential of SMA spar design, roll performance of the composite smart wings will be investigated using ASTROS. Parametric study will be conducted to investigate the SMA spar effects by changing the spar locations and geometry. The results show that with activation of the SMA spar, the roll effectiveness can be increased up to 61% compared with the baseline model.

  7. Impact resistance of spar-shell composite fan blades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graff, J.; Stoltze, L.; Varholak, E. M.

    1973-01-01

    Composite spar-shell fan blades for a 1.83 meter (6 feet) diameter fan stage were fabricated and tested in a whirling arm facility to evaluate foreign object damage (FOD) resistance. The blades were made by adhesively bonding boron-epoxy shells on titanium spars and then adhesively bonding an Inconel 625 sheath on the leading edge. The rotating blades were individually tested at a tip speed of 800 feet per second. Impacting media used were gravel, rivets, bolt, nut, ice balls, simulated birds, and a real bird. Incidence angles were typical of those which might be experienced by STOL aircraft. The tests showed that blades of the design tested in this program have satisfactory impact resistance to small objects such as gravel, rivets, nuts, bolts, and two inch diameter ice balls. The blades suffered nominal damage when impacted with one-pound birds (9 to 10 ounce slice size). However, the shell was removed from the spar for a larger slice size.

  8. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  9. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Through selection of resistance to sparfloxacin, an attenuated Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar was obtained from its virulent parent strain S. agalactiae 138P. The full genome of S. agalactiae 138spar is 1,838,126 bp. The availability of this genome will allow comparative genomics to identi...

  10. Experimental and analytical investigation of dynamic characteristics of extension-twist-coupled composite tubular spars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lake, Renee C.; Izadpanah, Amir P.; Baucom, Robert M.

    1993-01-01

    The results from a study aimed at improving the dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of composite rotor blades through the use of extension-twist coupling are presented. A set of extension-twist-coupled composite spars was manufactured with four plies of graphite-epoxy cloth prepreg. These spars were noncircular in cross-section design and were therefore subject to warping deformations. Three different cross-sectional geometries were developed: D-shape, square, and flattened ellipse. Three spars of each type were fabricated to assess the degree of repeatability in the manufacturing process of extension-twist-coupled structures. Results from free-free vibration tests of the spars were compared with results from normal modes and frequency analyses of companion shell-finite-element models. Five global modes were identified within the frequency range from 0 to 2000 Hz for each spar. The experimental results for only one D-shape spar could be determined, however, and agreed within 13.8 percent of the analytical results. Frequencies corresponding to the five global modes for the three square spars agreed within 9.5, 11.6, and 8.5 percent of the respective analytical results and for the three elliptical spars agreed within 4.9, 7.7, and 9.6 percent of the respective analytical results.

  11. Effects of carbon dioxide and temperature on crops: Lessons from SPAR growth chambers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sunlit growth chambers, known as Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research (SPAR) chambers, provide a unique environment for studying and quantifying the effects of environmental variables, either alone or in combination, on plant growth and development. SPAR chambers are appropriate for short-term or entire g...

  12. GROWING NEED FOR RISK ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk analysis has been increasingly receiving attention in making environmental decisions. or example, in its May 18, 1993 Combustion Strategy announcement, EPA required that any issuance of a new hazardous waste combustion permit be preceded by the performance of a complete (dir...

  13. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. PMID:20002893

  14. Risk analysis of spent fuel transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    This book discusses the kinds of judgments that must go into a technical analysis of risk and moves on to the sociopolitical aspects of risk analysis where the same set of facts can be honestly but differently interpreted. Also outlines options available in risk management and reviews courts' involvement with risk analysis.

  15. Contests with deadly weapons: telson sparring in mantis shrimp (Stomatopoda)

    PubMed Central

    Green, P. A.; Patek, S. N.

    2015-01-01

    Mantis shrimp strike with extreme impact forces that are deadly to prey. They also strike conspecifics during territorial contests, yet theoretical and empirical findings in aggressive behaviour research suggest competitors should resolve conflicts using signals before escalating to dangerous combat. We tested how Neogonodactylus bredini uses two ritualized behaviours to resolve size-matched contests: meral spread visual displays and telson (tailplate) strikes. We predicted that (i) most contests would be resolved by meral spreads, (ii) meral spreads would reliably signal strike force and (iii) strike force would predict contest success. The results were unexpected for each prediction. Contests were not resolved by meral spreads, instead escalating to striking in 33 of 34 experiments. The size of meral spread components did not strongly correlate with strike force. Strike force did not predict contest success; instead, winners delivered more strikes. Size-matched N. bredini avoid deadly combat not by visual displays, but by ritualistically and repeatedly striking each other's telsons until the loser retreats. We term this behaviour ‘telson sparring', analogous to sparring in other weapon systems. We present an alternative framework for mantis shrimp contests in which the fight itself is the signal, serving as a non-lethal indicator of aggressive persistence or endurance. PMID:26399976

  16. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  17. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  18. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  19. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  20. Advanced cooled-engine shell/spar turbine vanes and blades. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-08-01

    The objectives of the Advanced Cooling Full-Scale Engine Demonstration Program, Phase II (EPRI Contract RP1319-5), were to develop and to demonstrate an advanced aircraft cooling technology for use in the vanes, blades, and associated hot-section components of a utility-sized combustion turbine. Use of such technology would provide reduced metal-surface temperatures for improved reliability or the potential for increasing turbine inlet temperatures for improved thermal efficiency. In the shell/spar cooling technology chosen for the vane and blade construction, cooling air flows through channels between a thin metal external sheet (shell) and a hollow-cast internal support member (spar). The shell and spar are joined by diffusion bonding. The results of first-stage shell/spar blade and vane design studies are reported, and heat transfer and stress analyses of the blade and vane designs are featured. The progress made on the development of the vane fabrication technology, up to the early termination at the end of 1984, is fully delineated. The successful development of an ultrasonic inspection technique to indicate unbonded areas between the shell and spar is reported. The results of heat transfer testing with shell/spar specimens and low-cycle fatigue testing of IN617 sheet are described. Problem areas in the determination of the low-cycle fatigue life expectancy of the designs are identified. Recommendations are given for continuing the blade and vane shell/spar advanced cooling technology development.

  1. North energy system risk analysis features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokhorov, V. A.; Prokhorov, D. V.

    2015-12-01

    Risk indicator analysis for a decentralized energy system of the North was carried out. Based on analysis of damages caused by accidents at energy systems, their structure is selected, and a North energy system risk determination method was proposed.

  2. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-05-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  3. An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sinpyo; Lee, Inwon; Park, Seong Hyeon; Lee, Cheolmin; Chun, Ho-Hwan; Lim, Hee Chang

    2015-09-01

    An experimental study of the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of a SPAR buoy-type floating offshore wind turbine is presented. The effects of the Center of Gravity (COG), mooring line spring constant, and fair-lead location on the turbine's motion in response to regular waves are investigated. Experimental results show that for a typical mooring system of a SPAR buoy-type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT), the effect of mooring systems on the dynamics of the turbine can be considered negligible. However, the pitch decreases notably as the COG increases. The COG and spring constant of the mooring line have a negligible effect on the fairlead displacement. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that the wind turbine motion and its sensitivity to changes in the mooring system and COG are very large near resonant frequencies. The test results can be used to validate numerical simulation tools for FOWTs.

  4. A guided-wave system for monitoring the wing skin-to-spar bond in unmanned aerial vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matt, Howard; Bartoli, Ivan; Lanza di Scalea, Francesco; Marzani, Alessandro; Coccia, Stefano; Oliver, Joseph; Kosmatka, John; Rizzo, Piervincenzo; Restivo, Gaetano

    2005-05-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are being increasingly used in military as well as civil applications. A critical part of the structure is the adhesive bond between the wing skin and the supporting spar. If not detected early, bond defects originating during manufacturing or in service flight can lead to inefficient flight performance and eventual global failure. This paper will present results from a bond inspection system based on attached piezoelectric disks probing the skin-to-spar bondline with ultrasonic guided waves in the hundreds of kilohertz range. The test components were CFRP composite panels of two different fiber layups bonded to a CFRP composite tube using epoxy adhesive. Three types of bond conditions were simulated, namely regions of poor cohesive strength, regions with localized disbonds and well bonded regions. The root mean square and variance of the received time-domain signals and their discrete wavelet decompositions were computed for the dominant modes propagating through the various bond regions in two different inspection configurations. Semi-analytical finite element analysis of the bonded multilayer joint was also carried out to identify and predict the sensitivity of the predominant carrier modes to the different bond defects. Emphasis of this research is based upon designing a built-in system for monitoring the structural integrity of bonded joints in UAVs and other aerospace structures.

  5. East Spar development: NCC buoy--The vertical submarine

    SciTech Connect

    Boyle, E.C.

    1998-02-01

    The remote East Spar gas/condensate field has been developed using a subsea production system operated by an unmanned navigation, communication, and control (NCC) buoy. The use of this type of system allows control of the field from any convenient location, with the command-response time and the cost of the facility almost completely independent of the distance to the shore or host facility. Successes during the project (such as using model tests to prove the concept and using a tension-leg mooring system to reduce the motion response of the buoy) are discussed and compared to failures, like the weight and size growth of the structure, caused as the design requirements were finalized and external factors changed. The operation and layout of this facility is summarized, showing why it was described as a vertical submarine. Conclusions are drawn about the use of an NCC buoy to develop this field, showing that the main objectives have been achieved. The limited operating experience to date is also considered in the review of the design objectives. The paper concludes with the possibilities for the future of this type of concept.

  6. Variable Stiffness Spar Wind-Tunnel Model Development and Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Florance, James R.; Heeg, Jennifer; Spain, Charles V.; Ivanco, Thomas G.; Wieseman, Carol D.; Lively, Peter S.

    2004-01-01

    The concept of exploiting wing flexibility to improve aerodynamic performance was investigated in the wind tunnel by employing multiple control surfaces and by varying wing structural stiffness via a Variable Stiffness Spar (VSS) mechanism. High design loads compromised the VSS effectiveness because the aerodynamic wind-tunnel model was much stiffer than desired in order to meet the strength requirements. Results from tests of the model include stiffness and modal data, model deformation data, aerodynamic loads, static control surface derivatives, and fuselage standoff pressure data. Effects of the VSS on the stiffness and modal characteristics, lift curve slope, and control surface effectiveness are discussed. The VSS had the most effect on the rolling moment generated by the leading-edge outboard flap at subsonic speeds. The effects of the VSS for the other control surfaces and speed regimes were less. The difficulties encountered and the ability of the VSS to alter the aeroelastic characteristics of the wing emphasize the need for the development of improved design and construction methods for static aeroelastic models. The data collected and presented is valuable in terms of understanding static aeroelastic wind-tunnel model development.

  7. RISK ANALYSIS: CASE HISTORY OF PUCCINIA JACEAE ON YELLOW STARTHISTLE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Risk analysis has five components: Risk awareness, Risk perception, Risk assessment, Risk management, and Risk communication. Using the case with the foreign plant pathogen, Puccinia jaceae, under evaluation for biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis, YST), approaches and...

  8. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chueng, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

  9. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed...

  10. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed...

  11. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  12. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis. [conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The scope and status of the effort to assess the risks associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers from civil aircraft is presented. Vulnerability of electrical and electronic equipment to carbon fibers, dispersal of carbon fibers, effectiveness of filtering systems, impact of fiber induced failures, and risk methodology are among the topics covered.

  13. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  14. SPAR 5 experiment no. 74-30 agglomeration in immiscible liquids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelles, S.; Markworth, A. J.

    1979-01-01

    The influence of gravity, cooling rate, and composition on the macro-and microstructure of liquid phase immiscible alloys were researched. Aluminum indium alloys of compositions 30, 40, 70, and 90 weight percent indium were processed aboard two sounding rocket flights, SPAR 2 and SPAR 5. Radiographic and metallographic examination of the SPAR 2 flight and ground base samples showed the expected separation at lg of the ground base alloys into indium rich and aluminum rich layers. The flight alloys produced an aluminum rich core surrounding by indium rich metal. The results obtained from the SPAR 5 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys were essentially identical to those from SPAR 2. The 30 and 90 weight percent indium alloys also showed massive separation into configuration similar to the 40 and 70 weight percent indium alloys. The 90 weight percent indium alloy showed additional evidence that surface tension induced droplet migration had occurred in this alloy which could at least in part account for the observed structures.

  15. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis: Conclusions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    It was concluded that preliminary estimates indicate that the public risk due to accidental release of carbon fiber from air transport aircraft is small. It was also concluded that further work is required to increase confidence in these estimates.

  16. Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jasanoff, S. )

    1993-04-01

    During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topics include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.

  17. Direct Adaptive Rejection of Vortex-Induced Disturbances for a Powered SPAR Platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanZwieten, Tannen S.; Balas, Mark J.; VanZwieten, James H.; Driscoll, Frederick R.

    2009-01-01

    The Rapidly Deployable Stable Platform (RDSP) is a novel vessel designed to be a reconfigurable, stable at-sea platform. It consists of a detachable catamaran and spar, performing missions with the spar extending vertically below the catamaran and hoisting it completely out of the water. Multiple thrusters located along the spar allow it to be actively controlled in this configuration. A controller is presented in this work that uses an adaptive feedback algorithm in conjunction with Direct Adaptive Disturbance Rejection (DADR) to mitigate persistent, vortex-induced disturbances. Given the frequency of a disturbance, the nominal DADR scheme adaptively compensates for its unknown amplitude and phase. This algorithm is extended to adapt to a disturbance frequency that is only coarsely known by including a Phase Locked Loop (PLL). The PLL improves the frequency estimate on-line, allowing the modified controller to reduce vortex-induced motions by more than 95% using achievable thrust inputs.

  18. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  19. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  20. Risk analysis of computer system designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallone, A.

    1981-01-01

    Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

  1. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  2. DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT ENDPOINTS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk analyses, both human health and ecological, will be important factors in determining which DOE sites should be cleaned up and in deciding if acceptable performance standards have been met. Risk analysis procedures for humans use the individual as the 'unit' of observation, a...

  3. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  4. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    PubMed

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  5. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  6. Failure risk assessment by analysis and testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N.; Ebbeler, D.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    The sources of information on which to base an evaluation of reliability or failure risk of an aerospace flight system are (1) experience from tests and flights and (2) engineering analysis. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace systems or components. Moreover, failure prediction by conventional, deterministic methods of engineering analysis can become arbitrary and subject to serious misinterpretation when uncertain or approximate information is used to establish analysis parameter values and to calibrate the accuracy of engineering models. The limitations of testing to evaluate failure risk are discussed, and a statistical approach which incorporates both engineering analysis and testing is presented.

  7. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  8. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  9. Role of the SNK-SPAR pathway in the development of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Gong, Xiaoyang; Lu, Xiaoguang; Zhan, Libin; Sui, Hua; Qi, Xin; Ji, Zhenghong; Niu, Xinping; Liu, Li

    2010-03-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the presence of senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain. The beta-amyloid peptide (Abeta) is the primary constituent of the senile plaques, and has been proposed to be a key contributor to the neurodegeneration observed in AD. The molecular mechanisms underlying dendritic spine damage that is induced by Abeta toxicity in AD patients remain largely unknown. It has been suggested previously that the SNK-SPAR signaling pathway is involved in activity-dependent remodeling of synapses. The relationship between the SNK-SPAR pathway and Abeta-induced excitotoxicity, however, is poorly understood. The present study investigated the effects of bilateral intrahippocampal injection of Abeta peptide 1-40 (Abeta(1-40)) on learning and memory in the rat, and explored the mechanisms underlying the effects of this injection. We reported that bilateral injection of Abeta(1-40) in rats resulted in impaired performance in the step-down passive avoidance and Morris water maze tasks. Then we examined mRNA and protein expression levels in the different brain regions one week after injection with Abeta(1-40) and found that the SNK-SPAR signaling pathway was possibly involved in dendritic spine damage in the different brain regions of Abeta-treated rats. These results demonstrate that the SNK-SPAR pathway may possibly play a crucial role in Abeta-induced excitotoxic damage in the central nervous system by regulating synaptic stability. PMID:20146300

  10. Evaluation Between Existing and Improved CCF Modeling Using the NRC SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    James K. Knudsen

    2010-06-01

    Abstract: The NRC SPAR models currently employ the alpha factor common cause failure (CCF) methodology and model CCF for a group of redundant components as a single “rolled-up” basic event. These SPAR models will be updated to employ a more computationally intensive and accurate approach by expanding the CCF basic events for all active components to include all terms that appear in the Basic Parameter Model (BPM). A discussion is provided to detail the differences between the rolled-up common cause group (CCG) and expanded BPM adjustment concepts based on differences in core damage frequency and individual component importance measures. Lastly, a hypothetical condition is evaluated with a SPAR model to show the difference in results between the current adjustment method (rolled-up CCF events) and the newer method employing all of the expanded terms in the BPM. The event evaluation on the SPAR model employing the expanded terms will be solved using the graphical evaluation module (GEM) and the proposed method discussed in Reference 1.

  11. Complete genome sequence of an attenuated Sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae strain 138spar

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The complete genome of a sparfloxacin-resistant Streptococcus agalactiae vaccine strain 138spar is 1,838,126 bp in size. The genome has 1892 coding sequences and 82 RNAs. The annotation of the genome is added by the NCBI Prokaryotic Genome Annotation Pipeline. The publishing of this genome will allo...

  12. Stresses in single-spar wing constructions with incompletely built-up ribs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reinitzhuber, F

    1940-01-01

    It is shown that the force distribution resulting from incomplete ribs in single spar wing structures may be determined with the aid of the shear field method by a statistically indeterminate computation. A numerical computation is given of the force distribution of a wing structure whose two neighboring incomplete ribs with web missing in half the section are torsionally loaded.

  13. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted. PMID:11781159

  14. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

    PubMed

    Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

    2000-08-01

    Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful. PMID:11051070

  15. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  16. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  17. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces. PMID:21571428

  18. SHRIMP U-Pb ages of xenotime and monazite from the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana: Implications for ore genesis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aleinikoff, John N.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Evans, Karl V.; Mazdab, Frank K.; Pillers, Renee M.; Fanning, C. Mark

    2012-01-01

    Xenotime occurs as epitaxial overgrowths on detrital zircons in the Mesoproterozoic Revett Formation (Belt Supergroup) at the Spar Lake red bed-associated Cu-Ag deposit, western Montana. The deposit formed during diagenesis of Revett strata, where oxidizing metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids encountered a reducing zone. Samples for geochronology were collected from several mineral zones. Xenotime overgrowths (1–30 μm wide) were found in polished thin sections from five ore and near-ore zones (chalcocite-chlorite, bornite-calcite, galena-calcite, chalcopyrite-ankerite, and pyrite-calcite), but not in more distant zones across the region. Thirty-two in situ SHRIMP U-Pb analyses on xenotime overgrowths yield a weighted average of 207Pb/206Pb ages of 1409 ± 8 Ma, interpreted as the time of mineralization. This age is about 40 to 60 m.y. after deposition of the Revett Formation. Six other xenotime overgrowths formed during a younger event at 1304 ± 19 Ma. Several isolated grains of xenotime have 207Pb/206Pb ages in the range of 1.67 to 1.51 Ga, and thus are considered detrital in origin. Trace element data can distinguish Spar Lake xenotimes of different origins. Based on in situ SHRIMP analysis, detrital xenotime has heavy rare earth elements-enriched patterns similar to those of igneous xenotime, whereas xenotime overgrowths of inferred hydrothermal origin have hump-shaped (i.e., middle rare earth elements-enriched) patterns. The two ages of hydrothermal xenotime can be distinguished by slightly different rare earth elements patterns. In addition, 1409 Ma xenotime overgrowths have higher Eu and Gd contents than the 1304 Ma overgrowths. Most xenotime overgrowths from the Spar Lake deposit have elevated As concentrations, further suggesting a genetic relationship between the xenotime formation and Cu-Ag mineralization.

  19. Risk analysis for critical asset protection.

    PubMed

    McGill, William L; Ayyub, Bilal M; Kaminskiy, Mark

    2007-10-01

    This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested. PMID:18076495

  20. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here. PMID:11761126

  1. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  2. Effect of element density on the NASTRAN calculated mechanical and thermal stresses of a spar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A NASTRAN model of a spar was examined to determine the sensitivity of calculated axial thermal stresses and bending stresses to changes in element density of the model. The thermal stresses calculated with three different element densities resulted in drastically differing values. The position of the constraint also significantly affected the value of the calculated thermal stresses. Mechanical stresses calculated from an applied loading were insensitive to element density.

  3. Program for impact testing of spar-shell fan blades, test report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ravenhall, R.; Salemme, C. T.

    1978-01-01

    Six filament-wound, composite spar-shell fan blades were impact tested in a whirligig relative to foreign object damage resulting from ingestion of birds into the fan blades of a QCSEE-type engine. Four of the blades were tested by injecting a simulated two pound bird into the path of the rotating blade and two were tested by injecting a starling into the path of the blade.

  4. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  5. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  6. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  7. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  8. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  9. Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

  10. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  11. The nonlinear bifurcation and chaos of coupled heave and pitch motions of a truss spar platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Lei; Liu, Liqin; Liu, Chunyuan; Tang, Yougang

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents the results from a numerical study on the nonlinear dynamic behaviors including bifurcation and chaos of a truss spar platform. In view of the mutual influences between the heave and the pitch modes, the coupled heave and pitch motion equations of the spar platform hull were established in the regular waves. In order to analyze the nonlinear motions of the platform, three-dimensional maximum Lyapunov exponent graphs and the bifurcation graphs were constructed, the Poincaré maps and the power spectrums of the platform response were calculated. It was found that the platform motions are sensitive to wave frequency. With changing wave frequency, the platform undergoes complicated nonlinear motions, including 1/2 sub-harmonic motion, quasi-periodic motion and chaotic motion. When the wave frequency approaches the natural frequency of the heave mode of the platform, the platform moves with quasi-periodic motion and chaotic motional ternately. For a certain range of wave frequencies, the platform moves with totally chaotic motion. The range of wave frequencies which leads to chaotic motion of the platform increases with increasing wave height. The three-dimensional maximum Lyapunov exponent graphs and the bifurcation graphs reveal the nonlinear motions of the spar platform under different wave conditions.

  12. SPAR X Technical Report for Experiment 76-22 Directional Solidification of Magnetic Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bethin, J.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of gravity on Bridgman-Stockbarger directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi were studied in reduced gravity aboard the SPAR X flight and compared to normal-gravity investigations and previous eutectic Bi/MnBi SPAR flight experiments. The directional solidification of off-eutectic Bi/MnBi results in either a dendritic structure connected with local cooperative growth or a coupled low volume fraction faceted/non faceted aligned rod eutectic whose Mn macrosegregation, MnBi rod size, interrod spacing, and thermal and magnetic properties are sensitive functions of the solidification processing conditions. Two hypoeutectic and two hypereutectic samples were solidified during 605 sec of furnace travel, with an initial 265 sec low-gravity interval. Comparison Earth-gravity samples were solidified in the same furance assembly under identical processing conditions. Macrosegregation in the low-g samples was consistent with a metastable increase in Mn solubility in the Bi matrix, in partial agreement with previous Bi/MnBi SPAR findings of MnBi volume reduction.

  13. Demonstration of Enabling Spar-Shell Cooling Technology in Gas Turbines

    SciTech Connect

    Downs, James

    2014-12-29

    In this Advanced Turbine Program-funded Phase III project, Florida Turbine Technologies, Inc. (FTT) has developed and tested, at a pre-commercial prototypescale, spar-shell turbine airfoils in a commercial gas turbine. The airfoil development is based upon FTT’s research and development to date in Phases I and II of Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants. During this program, FTT has partnered with an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Siemens Energy, to produce sparshell turbine components for the first pre-commercial prototype test in an F-Class industrial gas turbine engine and has successfully completed validation testing. This project will further the commercialization of this new technology in F-frame and other highly cooled turbine airfoil applications. FTT, in cooperation with Siemens, intends to offer the spar-shell vane as a first-tier supplier for retrofit applications and new large frame industrial gas turbines. The market for the spar-shell vane for these machines is huge. According to Forecast International, 3,211 new gas turbines units (in the >50MW capacity size range) will be ordered in ten years from 2007 to 2016. FTT intends to enter the market in a low rate initial production. After one year of successful extended use, FTT will quickly ramp up production and sales, with a target to capture 1% of the market within the first year and 10% within 5 years (2020).

  14. Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

    1973-01-01

    A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

  15. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  16. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  17. Risk and value analysis of SETI.

    PubMed

    Billingham, J

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking. PMID:11538075

  18. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  19. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  20. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  1. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  2. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  3. Landsafe: Landing Site Risk Analysis Software Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, R.; Bostelmann, J.; Cornet, Y.; Heipke, C.; Philippe, C.; Poncelet, N.; de Rosa, D.; Vandeloise, Y.

    2012-08-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe) is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs), hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  4. Fire Risk Analysis for Armenian NPP Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Poghosyan, Shahen; Malkhasyan, Albert; Bznuni, Surik; Amirjanyan, Armen

    2006-07-01

    Major fire occurred at Armenian NPP (ANPP) in October 1982 showed that fire-induced initiating events (IE) can have dominant contribution in overall risk of core damage. Probabilistic Safety Assessment study for fire-induced initiating events for ANPP was initiated in 2002. Analysis was performed for compartments fires in which could result in failure of components which are necessary for reactor cold shutdown. Analysis shows that main risk from fire at ANPP is conditioned by fire in cable tunnels 61-64. Meanwhile fire in confinement compartments don't have significant contribution to overall risk of core damage. The exception is so called 'confinement valves compartment' (room no.A-013/2) fire (more than 7.5% of CDF) in which fire could result in the loss of coolant accident with unavailability of primary makeup system, which directly leads to core damage. Detailed analysis of this problem that is common for typical WWER-440/230 reactors with no hermetic MCPs and recommendations for solution are presented in this paper. (authors)

  5. Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks.

    PubMed

    Blinkin, V L

    1998-04-01

    A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate Dij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as Dij = Aj + BiCj, and unknown quantities Aj, Bi, and Cj were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term Aj can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term BiCj as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components Aj can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(tau) = gamma + beta x e alpha tau, where gamma, beta, and alpha are constants, tau is age, A(tau) [symbol: see text] tau = tau j identical to A(tau j) identical to Aj and tau j is the value of age tau in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980-1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population. PMID:9637078

  6. Conceptual issues with risk analysis in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Lévy, Sébastien

    2015-04-01

    Risk analysis is a tricky procedure, where one can easily make mistakes. Indeed, although risk equations are rather general, transferring a methodology to another context or hazard type can often lead to inaccuracies or even significant errors. To illustrate this, common mistakes made with the Swiss methodology are presented, together with possible solutions. This includes the following: Risk analysis for moving objects only takes the process dimension into account (e.g. the length of a road section potentially affected by a landslide), but not the object dimension (e.g. the cars length). This is a fair simplification as long as the object dimension is considerably smaller than the process dimension. However, when the object is large compared to the process (e.g. rockfalls on a train), the results will be wrong. This problem can be illustrated by considering two blocs. According to this methodology a 1 m diameter bloc will be twice more susceptible to reach a train than a 50 cm bloc. This is obviously not correct. When it comes to rockfalls risk analysis on roads or railway found in the literature, the bloc dimension is usually neglected, in favour of the object dimension, which is a fair assumption in this context. However, it is possible to include both dimensions by using the sum of the lengths instead of one of them. Risk analysis is usually performed using 3 different scenarios, for 3 different ranges of return periods, namely 1-30, 30-100 and 100-300 years. In order to be conservative, the operator commonly considers the magnitude of the worst event that happens with a return period included between the class bounds, which means that the operator evaluates the magnitude reached or overpassed with a return period of 30, 100 and 300 years respectively. Then, since the magnitude corresponds to the upper bounds of the classes, risk is calculated using the frequency corresponding to these return periods and not to the middle of the class (and also subtracting the

  7. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R. ); Englehart, D.R.W. )

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

  8. Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. PMID:26133501

  9. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  10. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  11. Feasibility of producing closed-cell metal foams in a zero-gravity environment from sputter deposited inert gas-bearing metals and alloys. Post-flight technical report, SPAR flight 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patten, J. W.; Greenwell, E. N.

    1976-01-01

    Metallography from experiment 24-10 obtained on the second space processing applications rocket (SPAR) flight is discussed. Results are considered along with results from the related experiments on the first SPAR flight. Conclusions are presented.

  12. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design.

    PubMed

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-02-28

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  13. Efficient preliminary floating offshore wind turbine design and testing methodologies and application to a concrete spar design

    PubMed Central

    Matha, Denis; Sandner, Frank; Molins, Climent; Campos, Alexis; Cheng, Po Wen

    2015-01-01

    The current key challenge in the floating offshore wind turbine industry and research is on designing economic floating systems that can compete with fixed-bottom offshore turbines in terms of levelized cost of energy. The preliminary platform design, as well as early experimental design assessments, are critical elements in the overall design process. In this contribution, a brief review of current floating offshore wind turbine platform pre-design and scaled testing methodologies is provided, with a focus on their ability to accommodate the coupled dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind systems. The exemplary design and testing methodology for a monolithic concrete spar platform as performed within the European KIC AFOSP project is presented. Results from the experimental tests compared to numerical simulations are presented and analysed and show very good agreement for relevant basic dynamic platform properties. Extreme and fatigue loads and cost analysis of the AFOSP system confirm the viability of the presented design process. In summary, the exemplary application of the reduced design and testing methodology for AFOSP confirms that it represents a viable procedure during pre-design of floating offshore wind turbine platforms. PMID:25583870

  14. Topographic Avalanche Risk: DEM Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarkulova, Ainura; Strobl, Josef

    2015-04-01

    GIS-based models are frequently used to assess the risk and trigger probabilities of (snow) avalanche releases, based on parameters and geomorphometric derivatives like elevation, exposure, slope, proximity to ridges and local relief energy. Numerous models, and model-based specific applications and project results have been published based on a variety of approaches and parametrizations as well as calibrations. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) come with many different resolution (scale) and quality (accuracy) properties, some of these resulting from sensor characteristics and DEM generation algorithms, others from different DEM processing workflows and analysis strategies. This paper explores the impact of using different types and characteristics of DEMs for avalanche risk modeling approaches, and aims at establishing a framework for assessing the uncertainty of results. The research question is derived from simply demonstrating the differences in release risk areas and intensities by applying identical models to DEMs with different properties, and then extending this into a broader sensitivity analysis. For the quantification and calibration of uncertainty parameters different metrics are established, based on simple value ranges, probabilities, as well as fuzzy expressions and fractal metrics. As a specific approach the work on DEM resolution-dependent 'slope spectra' is being considered and linked with the specific application of geomorphometry-base risk assessment. For the purpose of this study focusing on DEM characteristics, factors like land cover, meteorological recordings and snowpack structure and transformation are kept constant, i.e. not considered explicitly. Key aims of the research presented here are the development of a multi-resolution and multi-scale framework supporting the consistent combination of large area basic risk assessment with local mitigation-oriented studies, and the transferability of the latter into areas without availability of

  15. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  16. Optimal Topology of Aircraft Rib and Spar Structures under Aeroelastic Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanford, Bret K.; Dunning, Peter D.

    2014-01-01

    Several topology optimization problems are conducted within the ribs and spars of a wing box. It is desired to locate the best position of lightening holes, truss/cross-bracing, etc. A variety of aeroelastic metrics are isolated for each of these problems: elastic wing compliance under trim loads and taxi loads, stress distribution, and crushing loads. Aileron effectiveness under a constant roll rate is considered, as are dynamic metrics: natural vibration frequency and flutter. This approach helps uncover the relationship between topology and aeroelasticity in subsonic transport wings, and can therefore aid in understanding the complex aircraft design process which must eventually consider all these metrics and load cases simultaneously.

  17. Criteria for representing circular arc and sine wave spar webs by non-curved elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    The basic problem of how to simply represent a curved web of a spar in a finite element structural model was addressed. The ratio of flat web to curved web axial deformations and longitudinal rotations were calculated using NASTRAN models. Multiplying factors were developed from these calculations for various web thicknesses. These multiplying factors can be applied directly to the area and moment of inertia inputs of the finite element model. This allows the thermal stress relieving configurations of sine wave and circular arc webs to be simply accounted for in finite element structural models.

  18. 2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. Spar, bramble, and the larger cutters storis (W38) make their way through arctic ice during the first transit of the northwest passage by a U.S. vessel. The lead 180 has a weight suspended over its starboard side. By swinging this weight back and forth across the centerline, the vessel can rock to free herself from ice. - U.S. Coast Guard Buoy Tenders, 180' Class, U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, 2100 Second Street Southwest, Washington, District of Columbia, DC

  19. Calibration and Validation of a Spar-Type Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Model using the FAST Dynamic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2012-11-01

    In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states.

  20. A comparison of measured and calculated thermal stresses in a hybrid metal matrix composite spar cap element

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.; Taylor, A. H.; Sakata, I. F.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid spar of titanium with an integrally brazed composite, consisting of an aluminum matrix reinforced with boron-carbide-coated fibers, was heated in an oven and the resulting thermal stresses were measured. Uniform heating of the spar in an oven resulted in thermal stresses arising from the effects of dissimilar materials and anisotropy of the metal matrix composite. Thermal stresses were calculated from a finite element structural model using anisotropic material properties deduced from constituent properties and rules of mixtures. Comparisons of calculated thermal stresses with measured thermal stresses on the spar are presented. It was shown that failure to account for anisotropy in the metal matrix composite elements would result in large errors in correlating measured and calculated thermal stresses. It was concluded that very strong material characterization efforts are required to predict accurate thermal stresses in anisotropic composite structures.

  1. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  2. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  3. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  4. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  5. OVERVIEW: MYCOTOXIN RISK ANALYSIS IN THE USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of the risk assessment process is to provide the basis for decisions that will allow successful management of the risk. Poor risk management decisions that result from inadequate risk assessment can be enormousely costly, both economically and in terms of human or animal health. Accco...

  6. [Irrationality and risk--a problem analysis].

    PubMed

    Bergler, R

    1995-04-01

    The way one experiences risks and one's risk behaviour is not centrally the result of rational considerations and decisions. Contradictions and incompatibilities can be proved empirically: (1) General paranoiac hysterical fear of risks, (2) complete repression of health risks, (3) unsureness and inability in dealing with risks, (4) prejudice against risks, (5) admiring risk behaviour, (6) seeking dangerous ways to test one's own limits, (7) readiness for aggression by not subjectively being able to control the risk, (8) naively assessing a risk positively thus intensifying pleasurable sensation, (9) increased preparedness to take risks in groups, (10) increased preparedness to take risk in anonymity, (11) accepting risks as a creative challenge for achievement motivation, (12) loss of innovation when avoiding risks. The awareness and assessment of risk factors is dependent on (1) personality factors (achievement-motivated persons experience risk as a creative challenge; risk behaviour being a variation in stimulus and exploration of one's environment), (2) the social back-ground (booster function), (3) the culture-related assessment of being able to control risks and (4) age (youthful risk behaviour being a way of coping with developmental exercises, e.g. purposely breaking parent's rules, provocatively demonstrating adult behaviour, a means to solve frustrating performance failures, advantages through social acceptance). The way one copes with risk factors is based on subjective estimation of risk; this assessment is made anew for each area of behaviour according to the specific situation. Making a decision and acting upon it is the result of simultaneously assessing the possible psychological benefit-cost factors of taking risks. The extent, to which the threat of risk factors is felt, depends on the importance one attaches to certain needs and benefits of quality of life and, in addition to this, what the subjective probabilities are that one is likely to be

  7. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups. PMID:23160540

  8. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  9. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  10. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  11. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  12. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  13. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  14. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  15. Heat-pipe development for the SPAR space-power system. [100 kW(e)

    SciTech Connect

    Ranken, W.A.

    1981-01-01

    The SPAR space power system design is based on a high temperature fast spectrum nuclear reactor that furnishes heat to a thermoelectric conversion system to generate an electrical power output of 100 kW/sub (e)/. An important feature of this design is the use of alkali metal heat pipes to provide redundant, reliable, and low-loss heat transfer at high temperature. Three sets of heat pipes are used in the system. These include sodium/molybdenum heat pipes to transfer heat from the reactor core to the conversion system, potassium/niobium heat pipes to couple the conversion system to the radiator in a redundant manner, and potassium/titanium heat pipes to distribute rejected heat throughout the radiator surface. The designs of these units are discussed and fabrication methods and testing results are described. 12 figures.

  16. CFD simulation of the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid for the truss spar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Liqin; Tang, Yougang

    2014-03-01

    The research purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of the parameters of the guide plate on the vertical motion characteristics of the moonpool fluid. With the volume of fluid (VOF) method, three-dimensional models of the moonpool fluid motions of the truss spar platform are established. Simulation results are then presented for the moonpool forced oscillation by employing the dynamic mesh method and user-defined functions in FLUENT. The motions of the moonpool fluid and the loads on the guide plates are obtained for both cases of square-ring and crisscross. The results show that the shape and area of the guide plate at the bottom of the moonpool have a significant impact on the physical parameters of the moonpool, including the load on the moonpool guide plate, motion form of the moonpool fluid and the mass flow rate.

  17. Mixed siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentation within Spar Mountain Member of Ste. Genevieve Limestone, Hamilton County, Illinois

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, M.J.; Pryor, W.A.

    1985-02-01

    The Spar Mountain Member of the Ste. Genevieve Limestone (middle Mississippian) in Hamilton County, Illinois, consists of 40-60 ft (12-18 m) of interbedded limestones, shales, and sandstones. Five cores and 1400 electric logs were used to delineate two shallowing-upward carbonate cycles and 2 major clastic pulses within the Spar Mountain. Eight lithofacies representing 6 depositional environments were identified. They are: (A) echinoderm-brachiopod dolostone to packstone (outer ramp), (B) ooid-peloidal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (C) skeletal grainstone (intermediate ramp), (D) ooid-molluscan-intraclastic wackestone to grainstone (inner ramp), (E) pelletal-skeletal wackestone (inner ramp), (F) quartzarenite (channelized nearshore), (G) quartz-sublithic arenite to wacke (delta platform), and (H) quartz mudstone (prodelta, delta platform). Deposition occurred on a southwest-dipping carbonate ramp, with siliciclastic sediments originating from the northeast. The sequence of facies and their inferred depositional environments record 2 major progradational episodes. Oolitic facies are interpreted to be of tidal-bar belt origin and quartzarenite facies are interpreted to be of delta-distributary channel origin. Their distribution is partially controlled by antecedent and syndepositional topography. Many of these paleotopographic highes are positive features today and yield pinch-out stratigraphic relationships. Paleogeographic reconstructions demonstrate that the primary control on facies distribution was the position of the delta proper along strike. However, depositional topography also influenced sedimentation, particularly in the sand-sized fraction. Using this concept, better prediction of underlying porous buildups (ooid shoals) is possible if thickness of the overlying siliciclastic is known. Within buildups, a complex diagenetic history complicates the distribution of porosity.

  18. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are...

  19. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  20. ANALYSIS OF LAMB MORTALITY USING COMPETING RISKS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A competing risks model was used to describe lamb mortality up to four weeks of age in a composite sheep flock with 8,642 lamb records. Discrete survival methods were applied using sire and animal models. The results indicated that substantial variation exists in the risk of lambs dying from diffe...

  1. Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

    1992-05-01

    Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

  2. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  3. Risk Analysis and the Construction of News.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkins, Lee; Patterson, Philip

    1987-01-01

    Explains that the news media commit fundamental errors of attribution in covering risk situations by (1) treating them as novelties, (2) failing to analyze the entire system, and (3) using insufficiently analytical language. (NKA)

  4. Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

    1988-01-01

    Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

  5. The role of risk analysis in understanding bioterrorism.

    PubMed

    Haas, Charles N

    2002-08-01

    Recent events have made the domestic risk from bioterrorism more tangible. The risk management process so far, however, has not benefited from many of the contributions that analysts, communicators, and managers can make to the public discourse. Risk professionals can contribute much to the understanding of and solutions to bioterrorist events and threats. This article will provide an overview of the bioterrorism problem and outline a number of areas to which members of the Society for Risk Analysis, and other risk practitioners, could usefully contribute. PMID:12224741

  6. Risk analysis of an RTG on the Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, Michael V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show tht INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low.

  7. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    PubMed

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future. PMID:15876212

  8. Oil shale health and environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gratt, L.B.

    1983-04-01

    The potential human health and environmental risks of hypothetical one-million-barrels-per-day oil shale industry have been analyzed to serve as an aid in the formulation and management of a program of environmental research. The largest uncertainties for expected fatalities are in the public sector from air pollutants although the occupational sector is estimated to have 60% more expected fatalities than the public sector. Occupational safety and illness have been analyzed for the oil shale fuel cycle from extraction to delivery of products for end use. Pneumoconiosis from the dust environment is the worker disease resulting in the greatest number of fatalities, followed by chronic bronchitis, internal cancer, and skin cancers, respectively. Research recommendations are presented for reducing the uncertainties in the risks analyzed and to fill data gaps to estimate other risks.

  9. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  10. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  11. Risk analysis: Wet weather flows in S.E. Michigan

    SciTech Connect

    Bulkley, J.W.

    1994-12-31

    Institutional aspects of risk analysis are examined in two separate activities in the state of Michigan. The state of Michigan`s relative risk project, patterned after the US EPA`s risk reduction report, provided an institutional mechanism to rank environmental issues facing the state of Michigan in terms of relative risk in 1991--92. This project identified 24 important environmental issues facing the state. These were categorized into four primary groups ranging from highest priority to medium priority. Seventeen of the identified issues are directly related to water resources, including water pollution in the Great Lakes. Combined sewer overflows are identified as the primary focus remaining for point-source discharges. The second institutional aspect of risk analysis considered in this paper is the development of a demonstration program for combined sewer overflow in the Rouge River Basin, which will help establish the trade-off between increased and risk reduction from such overflows.

  12. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  13. Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

  14. Analysis of driver casualty risk for different work zone types.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    Using driver casualty data from the Fatality Analysis Report System, this study examines driver casualty risk and investigates the risk contributing factors in the construction, maintenance and utility work zones. The multiple t-tests results show that the driver casualty risk is statistically different depending on the work zone type. Moreover, construction work zones have the largest driver casualty risk, followed by maintenance and utility work zones. Three separate logistic regression models are developed to predict driver casualty risk for the three work zone types because of their unique features. Finally, the effects of risk factors on driver casualty risk for each work zone type are examined and compared. For all three work zone types, five significant risk factors including road alignment, truck involvement, most harmful event, vehicle age and notification time are associated with increased driver casualty risk while traffic control devices and restraint use are associated with reduced driver casualty risk. However, one finding is that three risk factors (light condition, gender and day of week) exhibit opposing effects on the driver casualty risk in different types of work zones. This may largely be due to different work zone features and driver behavior in different types of work zones. PMID:21658509

  15. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    BPA's operating environment is filled with numerous uncertainties, and thus the rate-setting process must take into account a wide spectrum of risks. The objective of the Risk Analysis is to identify, model, and analyze the impacts that key risks have on BPA's net revenue (total revenues less total expenses). This is carried out in two distinct steps: a risk analysis step, in which the distributions, or profiles, of operating and non operating risks are defined, and a risk mitigation step, in which different rate tools are tested to assess their ability to recover BPA's costs in the face of this uncertainty. Two statistical models are used in the risk analysis step for this rate proposal, the Risk Analysis Model (RiskMod), and the Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM), while a third model, the ToolKit, is used to test the effectiveness of rate tools options in the risk mitigation step. RiskMod is discussed in Sections 2.1 through 2.4, the NORM is discussed in Section 2.5, and the ToolKit is discussed in Section 3. The models function together so that BPA can develop rates that cover all of its costs and provide a high probability of making its Treasury payments on time and in full during the rate period. By law, BPA's payments to Treasury are the lowest priority for revenue application, meaning that payments to Treasury are the first to be missed if financial reserves are insufficient to pay all bills on time. For this reason, BPA measures its potential for recovering costs in terms of probability of being able to make Treasury payments on time (also known as Treasury Payment Probability or TPP).

  16. Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

    PubMed

    Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. PMID:26010201

  17. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1986-01-01

    The risks, values, and costs of the SETI project are evaluated and compared with those of the Viking project. Examination of the scientific values, side benefits, and costs of the two projects reveal that both projects provide equal benefits at equal costs. The probability of scientific and technical success is analyzed.

  18. Harding Iceland spar: a new delta 18O-delta 13C carbonate standard for hydrothermal minerals.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Landis, G.P.

    1983-01-01

    An isotopically homogenous calcite, Iceland spar from the Iceberg claim, near the Harding pegmatite of N New Mexico, has delta 18O +11.78 + or - 0.07per mille (=+22.15per mille for CO2) and delta 13C -4.80 + or - 0.02per mille and has been prepared in quantities suitable for use as a working standard in MS.-R.A.H.

  19. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    SciTech Connect

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  20. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    High-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.

  1. Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Goupee, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50th scale inmore » a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less

  2. A risk analysis model in concurrent engineering product development.

    PubMed

    Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui

    2010-09-01

    Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company. PMID:20840492

  3. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  4. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  5. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  6. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  7. SARA (System Analysis and Risk Assessment): An NRC risk management tool

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Robinson, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system is being developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction and guidance of the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this project is to provide a personal computer (PC)-based, user-friendly system for the computation and analysis of information on nuclear power plant risk characteristics. The latest released version of SARA (Version 2.0) contains the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) results from four of the five plants included in the NUREG-1150 study. These plants are: Surry;Peach Bottom;Sequoyah;and Grand Gulf.

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  9. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  10. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).