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Sample records for anthropogenically enhanced global

  1. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  2. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, H.; Ribes, A.; Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

  3. Global Climate Responses to Anthropogenic Groundwater Exploitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Y.; Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, a groundwater exploitation scheme is incorporated into the earth system model, Community Earth System Model 1.2.0 (CESM1.2.0), which is called CESM1.2_GW, and the climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal are then investigated on global scale. The scheme models anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption, which are then divided into agricultural irrigation, industrial use and domestic use. A group of 41-year ensemble groundwater exploitation simulations with six different initial conditions, and a group of ensemble control simulations without exploitation are conducted using the developed model CESM1.2_GW with water supplies and demands estimated. The results reveal that the groundwater exploitation and water consumption cause drying effects on soil moisture in deep layers and wetting effects in upper layers, along with a rapidly declining groundwater table in Central US, Haihe River Basin in China and Northern India and Pakistan where groundwater extraction are most severe in the world. The atmosphere also responds to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation. Cooling effects on lower troposphere appear in large areas of North China Plain and of Northern India and Pakistan. Increased precipitation occurs in Haihe River Basin due to increased evapotranspiration from irrigation. Decreased precipitation occurs in Northern India because water vapor here is taken away by monsoon anomalies induced by anthropogenic alteration of groundwater. The local reducing effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on total terrestrial water storage evinces that water resource is unsustainable with the current high exploitation rate. Therefore, a balance between slow groundwater withdrawal and rapid human economic development must be achieved to maintain a sustainable water resource, especially in over-exploitation regions such as Central US, Northern China, India and Pakistan.

  4. Anthropogenic global warming threatens world cultural heritage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cazenave, Anny

    2014-05-01

    Numerous cultural sites of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world cultural Heritage are located in low-lying coastal regions. Because of anthropogenic global warming and induced sea level rise, many of these sites will be partially or totally flooded in the coming centuries/millennia. This is shown in a recent study by Marzeion and Levermann (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034001). Projecting future sea level rise and associated regional variability, these authors investigate which sites will be at risk. Because UNESCO cultural sites represent the common heritage of human beings and reflect the Earth and humanity history, they need to be protected for future generations.

  5. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    SciTech Connect

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Kaicun; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Tian, Hanqin; Mu, Mingquan; Arain, Altaf; Ciais, Philippe; Cook, Robert; Dai, Yongjiu; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Huang, Suo; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Michalak, Anna M.; Parazoo, Nicholas; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Schaefer, Kevin; Jafarov, Elchin; Wang, Weile; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhao, Fang; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhu, Zaichun

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

  6. Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatiwala, S.; Tanhua, T.; Mikaloff Fletcher, S.; Gerber, M.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H. D.; Gruber, N.; McKinley, G. A.; Murata, A.; Ríos, A. F.; Sabine, C. L.

    2013-04-01

    The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data-based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air-sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on forward ocean models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 ± 31 PgC (±20% uncertainty). This estimate includes a broad range of

  7. Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatiwala, S.; Tanhua, T.; Mikaloff Fletcher, S.; Gerber, M.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H. D.; Gruber, N.; McKinley, G. A.; Murata, A.; Ríos, A. F.; Sabine, C. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

    2012-07-01

    The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data-assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air-sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on ocean forward models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 Pg C with an uncertainty of ±20%. This estimate includes a broad range of

  8. Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

    This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1°×1° latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg emissions and its three main chemical species: elemental gaseous Hg, divalent gaseous Hg, and particle-associated Hg are presented. The main emissions occur in southeast Asia (particularly in China), South Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Eastern United States. These are the regions where coal combustion is the main source of electricity and heat production. Waste incineration adds to these emissions in the Eastern United States. Emissions of total Hg and its three species are quite similar in terms of their (global) spatial distributions. They reflect the worldwide distribution of coal consumption in large power plants, industrial burners, and small combustion units, such as residential and commercial furnaces.

  9. Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wei, Yaxing; Thornton, Peter E.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fu, Wenting; Fisher, Joshua B.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Shem, Willis; et al

    2015-09-08

    Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified globalmore » ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.« less

  10. Estimation of global anthropogenic dust aerosol using CALIOP satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, B.; Huang, J.; Liu, J.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic dust aerosols are those produced by human activity, which mainly come from cropland, pasture, and urban in this paper. Because understanding of the emissions of anthropogenic dust is still very limited, a new technique for separating anthropogenic dust from natural dustusing CALIPSO dust and planetary boundary layer height retrievalsalong with a land use dataset is introduced. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 22.3% of the global continentaldust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 52.5% come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. On the whole, anthropogenic dust emissions from East China and India are higher than other regions.

  11. GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper discusses the development of a global inventory of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. t includes VOC estimates for seven classes of VOCs: paraffins, olefins, aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene), formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and ...

  12. GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FORM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes a global inventory anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions that includes a separate inventory for each of seven pollutant groups--paraffins, olefins, aromatics, formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and marginally reactive compounds....

  13. GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes a global inventory anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions that includes a separate inventory for each of seven pollutant groups--paraffins, olefins, aromatics, formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and marginally reactive compounds....

  14. Investigating the Climatic Impacts of Globally Shifted Anthropogenic Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

    2014-12-01

    With a quasi-exponential growth in industrialization since the mid-1990s, Asia has undergone a dramatic increase in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol and precursor gases to the atmosphere. Meanwhile, such emissions have been stabilized or reduced over North America and Europe. This geographical shift of global emission sources could potentially perturb the regional and global climate due to impact of aerosols on cloud properties, precipitation, and large-scale circulation. We use an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with different aerosol scenarios to investigate the radiative and microphysical effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale circulation and regional climate over the globe. We conduct experiments to simulate the continental shift of aerosol distribution by contrasting two simulations using 1970 and 2010 anthropogenic emission sources. We found the elevation of aerosol concentrations in East and South Asia results in regional surface temperature cooling of -0.10° to -0.17°C, respectively, due to the enhanced solar extinction by aerosols and cloud reflectivity. The reduction of the local aerosol loadings in Europe causes a significant warming of +0.4°C. However, despite recent decreasing in aerosol emission, North America shows a cooling of -0.13°C, likely caused by increasing of cloudiness under the influence of modulated general circulation. These aerosol induced temperature changes are consistent with the observed temperature trends from 1980 to 2013 in the reanalysis data. Our study also predicts weaker East/South Asia summer monsoons due to strong regional aerosol forcing. Moreover, the ascending motion in the northern tropics is found to be weakened by asymmetrical aerosol forcing, resulting in the cross-equatorial shift of Hadley Circulation.

  15. Global inventory of volatile organic compound emissions from anthropogenic sources

    SciTech Connect

    Piccot, S.D.; Watson, J.J.; Jones, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    The paper discusses the development of a global inventory of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. It includes VOC estimates for seven classes of VOCs: paraffins, olefins, aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene), formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and marginally reactive compounds. These classes represent general classes of VOC compounds that possess different chemical reactivities in the atmosphere. The inventory shows total global anthropogenic VOC emissions of about 110,000 Gg/yr, about 10% lower than global VOC inventories developed by other researchers. The study identifies the U.S. as the largest emitter (21% of the total global VOC), followed by the USSR, China, India, and Japan. Globally, fuel wood combustion and savanna burning were among the largest VOC emission sources, accounting for over 35% of the total global VOC emissions. The production and use of gasoline, refuse disposal activities, and organic chemical and rubber manufacturing were also found to be significant sources of global VOC emissions.

  16. Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing.

    PubMed

    Horton, Daniel E; Harshvardhan; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2012-01-01

    Stagnant atmospheric conditions can lead to hazardous air quality by allowing ozone and particulate matter to accumulate and persist in the near-surface environment. By changing atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, global warming could alter the meteorological factors that regulate air stagnation frequency. We analyze the response of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Air Stagnation Index (ASI) to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing using global climate model projections of late-21(st) century climate change (SRES A1B scenario). Our results indicate that the atmospheric conditions over the highly populated, highly industrialized regions of the eastern United States, Mediterranean Europe, and eastern China are particularly sensitive to global warming, with the occurrence of stagnant conditions projected to increase 12-to-25% relative to late-20(th) century stagnation frequencies (3-18+ days/year). Changes in the position/strength of the polar jet, in the occurrence of light surface winds, and in the number of precipitation-free days all contribute to more frequent late-21(st) century air mass stagnation over these high-population regions. In addition, we find substantial inter-model spread in the simulated response of stagnation conditions over some regions using either native or bias corrected global climate model simulations, suggesting that changes in the atmospheric circulation and/or the distribution of precipitation represent important sources of uncertainty in the response of air quality to global warming. PMID:23284587

  17. Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon (GOSAC)

    SciTech Connect

    Orr, J C

    2002-04-02

    GOSAC was an EC-funded project (1998-2001) focused on improving the predictive capacity and accelerating development of global-scale, three-dimensional, ocean carbon-cycle models by means of standardized model evaluation and model intercomparison. Through the EC Environment and Climate Programme, GOSAC supported the participation of seven European modeling groups in the second phase of the larger international effort OCMIP (the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project). OCMIP included model comparison and validation for both CO{sub 2} and other ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers. Beyond the international OCMIP effort, GOSAC also supported the same EC ocean carbon cycle modeling groups to make simulations to evaluate the efficiency of purposeful sequestration of CO{sub 2} in the ocean. Such sequestration, below the thermocline has been proposed as a strategy to help mitigate the increase of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Some technical and scientific highlights of GOSAC are given.

  18. Do anthropogenic aerosols enhance CO2 uptake by plants?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strada, S.; Unger, N.

    2013-12-01

    Plant productivity (photosynthesis) is tightly connected to the supply of solar radiation and water and to surface temperature. Solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface and the water cycle are strongly modified by anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosols reduce the amount of global radiation and surface temperature, and they modify the partitioning between direct and diffuse radiation. Moreover, they modify cloud radiative properties and lifetime. These aerosols effects may influence Gross Primary Productivity (GPP): (1) by intensifying the diffuse-radiation fertilization effect (i.e. plant productivity is more efficient under diffuse light whose amount may increase due to aerosol loading); (2) by modifying water supply through suppression/enhancement of rainfall; (3) by reducing surface temperature. Among aerosol impacts on GPP, it is unclear if there exists a prevailing one, or if the prevailing impact varies across ecosystems. Feedbacks to GPP from the effects of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) formed from vegetation reactive carbon emissions have not been investigated. Moreover, human-made pollution and biomass burning induce high ozone concentrations that simultaneously reduce plant productivity. We apply satellite observations and global model simulations to investigate the spatial pattern in the relationship between aerosols and plant productivity across different ecosystems, and whether plants control their diffuse radiation environment through the reactive carbon emissions. We quantify the correlation between MODIS GPP and: (1) fine-fraction Aerosol Optical Depth from MODIS (fAOD); (2) ozone levels in the middle troposphere from TES. The analysis of satellite data reveals strong positive correlation between GPP and fAOD in temperate and boreal ecosystems, and strong negative correlation in tropical ecosystems. The tropical ecosystem also presents strong negative correlation between GPP and O3. Simulations using Yale-E2 global carbon

  19. The GEIA global gridded inventory of anthropogenic VOCs

    SciTech Connect

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Berdowski, J.J.M.; Veldt, C.

    1995-04-01

    Modeling assessments of the atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climatic conditions of the past, present and future require as input inventories of emissions of the appropriate chemical species constructed on appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The task of the Global Emissions Inventories Activity (GEIA) of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC) is the production of global inventories suitable for a range of research applications. Current GEIA programs are generally based on addressing emissions by species; an international working group of interested participants cooperates in the work needed to compile each inventory. The work of the GEIA program addressing the compilation of a global inventory of anthropogenic emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) gridded with 1{degree} resolution is presented. Past studies were used to identify anthropogenic activities according to their contribution to global VOC emissions, based on results of these initial studies, activity and species groupings for emissions reporting have been selected. Current status of the work of the committee is discussed. Detailed information on available activity rates, emission factors, and speciation profiles for each defined sector is being compiled. Links to investigators working on the compilation of VOC emissions on a regional level have been established.

  20. Observational and modeling constraints on global anthropogenic enrichment of mercury.

    PubMed

    Amos, Helen M; Sonke, Jeroen E; Obrist, Daniel; Robins, Nicholas; Hagan, Nicole; Horowitz, Hannah M; Mason, Robert P; Witt, Melanie; Hedgecock, Ian M; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Sunderland, Elsie M

    2015-04-01

    Centuries of anthropogenic releases have resulted in a global legacy of mercury (Hg) contamination. Here we use a global model to quantify the impact of uncertainty in Hg atmospheric emissions and cycling on anthropogenic enrichment and discuss implications for future Hg levels. The plausibility of sensitivity simulations is evaluated against multiple independent lines of observation, including natural archives and direct measurements of present-day environmental Hg concentrations. It has been previously reported that pre-industrial enrichment recorded in sediment and peat disagree by more than a factor of 10. We find this difference is largely erroneous and caused by comparing peat and sediment against different reference time periods. After correcting this inconsistency, median enrichment in Hg accumulation since pre-industrial 1760 to 1880 is a factor of 4.3 for peat and 3.0 for sediment. Pre-industrial accumulation in peat and sediment is a factor of ∼ 5 greater than the precolonial era (3000 BC to 1550 AD). Model scenarios that omit atmospheric emissions of Hg from early mining are inconsistent with observational constraints on the present-day atmospheric, oceanic, and soil Hg reservoirs, as well as the magnitude of enrichment in archives. Future reductions in anthropogenic emissions will initiate a decline in atmospheric concentrations within 1 year, but stabilization of subsurface and deep ocean Hg levels requires aggressive controls. These findings are robust to the ranges of uncertainty in past emissions and Hg cycling. PMID:25750991

  1. Global analysis of anthropogenic debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    PubMed

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-02-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. PMID:23914794

  2. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide source areas observed from space: assessment of regional enhancements and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneising, O.; Heymann, J.; Buchwitz, M.; Reuter, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Urban areas, which are home to the majority of today's world population, are responsible for more than two-thirds of the global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Given the ongoing demographic growth and rising energy consumption in metropolitan regions particularly in the developing world, urban-based emissions are expected to further increase in the future. As a consequence, monitoring and independent verification of reported anthropogenic emissions is becoming more and more important. It is demonstrated using SCIAMACHY nadir measurements that anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be detected from space and that emission trends might be tracked using satellite observations. This is promising with regard to future satellite missions with high spatial resolution and wide swath imaging capability aiming at constraining anthropogenic emissions down to the point-source scale. By subtracting retrieved background values from those retrieved over urban areas we find significant CO2 enhancements for several anthropogenic source regions, namely 1.3 ± 0.7 ppm for the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region and the Benelux, 1.1 ± 0.5 ppm for the East Coast of the United States, and 2.4 ± 0.9 ppm for the Yangtze River Delta. The order of magnitude of the enhancements is in agreement with what is expected for anthropogenic CO2 signals. The larger standard deviation of the retrieved Yangtze River Delta enhancement is due to a distinct positive trend of 0.3 ± 0.2 ppm yr-1, which is quantitatively consistent with anthropogenic emissions from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) in terms of percentual increase per year. Potential contributions to the retrieved CO2 enhancement by several error sources, e.g. aerosols, albedo, and residual biospheric signals due to heterogeneous seasonal sampling, are discussed and can be ruled out to a large extent.

  3. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide source areas observed from space: assessment of regional enhancements and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneising, O.; Heymann, J.; Buchwitz, M.; Reuter, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.

    2013-03-01

    Urban areas, which are home to the majority of today's world population, are responsible for more than two-thirds of the global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Given the ongoing demographic growth and rising energy consumption in metropolitan regions particularly in the developing world, urban-based emissions are expected to further increase in the future. As a consequence, monitoring and independent verification of reported anthropogenic emissions is becoming more and more important. It is demonstrated using SCIAMACHY nadir measurements that anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be detected from space and that emission trends might be tracked using satellite observations. This is promising with regard to future satellite missions with high spatial resolution and wide swath imaging capability aiming at constraining anthropogenic emissions down to the point-source scale. By subtracting retrieved background values from those retrieved over urban areas we find significant CO2 enhancements for several anthropogenic source regions, namely 1.3 ± 0.7 ppm for the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region and the Benelux, 1.1 ± 0.5 ppm for the East Coast of the United States, and 2.4 ± 0.9 ppm for the Yangtze River Delta. The order of magnitude of the enhancements is in agreement with what is expected for anthropogenic CO2 signals. The larger standard deviation of the retrieved Yangtze River Delta enhancement is due to a distinct positive trend of 0.3 ± 0.2 ppm yr-1, which is quantitatively consistent with anthropogenic emissions from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) in terms of percentual increase per year. Potential contributions to the retrieved CO2 enhancement by several error sources, e.g. aerosols, albedo, and residual biospheric signals due to heterogeneous seasonal sampling, are discussed and can be ruled out to a large extent.

  4. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition enhances carbon sequestration in boreal soils.

    PubMed

    Maaroufi, Nadia I; Nordin, Annika; Hasselquist, Niles J; Bach, Lisbet H; Palmqvist, Kristin; Gundale, Michael J

    2015-08-01

    It is proposed that carbon (C) sequestration in response to reactive nitrogen (Nr ) deposition in boreal forests accounts for a large portion of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. While studies have helped clarify the magnitude by which Nr deposition enhances C sequestration by forest vegetation, there remains a paucity of long-term experimental studies evaluating how soil C pools respond. We conducted a long-term experiment, maintained since 1996, consisting of three N addition levels (0, 12.5, and 50 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) ) in the boreal zone of northern Sweden to understand how atmospheric Nr deposition affects soil C accumulation, soil microbial communities, and soil respiration. We hypothesized that soil C sequestration will increase, and soil microbial biomass and soil respiration will decrease, with disproportionately large changes expected compared to low levels of N addition. Our data showed that the low N addition treatment caused a non-significant increase in the organic horizon C pool of ~15% and a significant increase of ~30% in response to the high N treatment relative to the control. The relationship between C sequestration and N addition in the organic horizon was linear, with a slope of 10 kg C kg(-1) N. We also found a concomitant decrease in total microbial and fungal biomasses and a ~11% reduction in soil respiration in response to the high N treatment. Our data complement previous data from the same study system describing aboveground C sequestration, indicating a total ecosystem sequestration rate of 26 kg C kg(-1) N. These estimates are far lower than suggested by some previous modeling studies, and thus will help improve and validate current modeling efforts aimed at separating the effect of multiple global change factors on the C balance of the boreal region. PMID:25711504

  5. Global Analysis of Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    PubMed Central

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. Análisis Global de la Ingesta de Residuos Antropogénicos por Tortugas Marinas La ingesta de residuos marinos puede tener efectos letales y subletales sobre las tortugas marinas y otros animales. Aunque hay investigadores que han reportado la ingesta de residuos antropogénicos por tortugas marinas y la incidencia de la ingesta de residuos ha incrementado con el tiempo, no ha habido una síntesis global del fenómeno desde 1985. Por esto analizamos 37 estudios publicados, desde

  6. Global Survey of Anthropogenic Neighborhood Threats to Conservation of Grass-Shrub and Forest Vegetation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The ecological functions of natural vegetation are threatened when it is subsumed in anthropogenic landscapes. We report the first comparative global survey of anthropogenic landscape threats to forest and grass-shrub vegetation. Using a global land-cover map derived from remote...

  7. Effects of future anthropogenic pollution emissions on global air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U.; van Aardenne, J.; Dentener, F.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC is used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecision inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (around 100 km). To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI) has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Arabian Gulf regions represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and particulate matter (PM2.5) are projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels will increase strongly. By extending the MPI definition, we calculated a Per Capita MPI (PCMPI) in which we combined population projections with those of pollution emissions. It thus appears that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. It is projected that air quality for the global average citizen in 2050 will be comparable to the average in East Asia in the year 2005.

  8. The relationship between anthropogenic dust and population over global semi-arid regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Zhang, Yanting; Xie, Yongkun; Liu, Jingjing

    2016-04-01

    Although anthropogenic dust has received more attention from the climate research community, its dominant role in the production process is still not identified. In this study, we analysed the relationship between anthropogenic dust and population density/change over global semi-arid regions and found that semi-arid regions are major source regions in producing anthropogenic dust. The results showed that the relationship between anthropogenic dust and population is more obvious in cropland than in other land cover types (crop mosaics, grassland, and urbanized regions) and that the production of anthropogenic dust increases as the population density grows to more than 90 persons km-2. Four selected semi-arid regions, namely East China, India, North America, and North Africa, were used to explore the relationship between anthropogenic dust production and regional population. The most significant relationship between anthropogenic dust and population occurred in an Indian semi-arid region that had a greater portion of cropland, and the high peak of anthropogenic dust probability appeared with 220 persons km-2 of population density and 60 persons km-2 of population change. These results suggest that the influence of population on production of anthropogenic dust in semi-arid regions is obvious in cropland regions. However, the impact does not always have a positive contribution to the production of anthropogenic dust, and overly excessive population will suppress the increase of anthropogenic dust. Moreover, radiative and climate effects of increasing anthropogenic dust need more investigation.

  9. Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

    PubMed

    Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David

    2014-08-22

    The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%. PMID:25123485

  10. Anthropogenics: human influence on global and genetic homogenization of parasite populations.

    PubMed

    Zarlenga, Dante S; Hoberg, Eric; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Mattiucci, Simonetta; Nascetti, Giuseppe

    2014-12-01

    The distribution, abundance, and diversity of life on Earth have been greatly shaped by human activities. This includes the geographic expansion of parasites; however, measuring the extent to which humans have influenced the dissemination and population structure of parasites has been challenging. In-depth comparisons among parasite populations extending to landscape-level processes affecting disease emergence have remained elusive. New research methods have enhanced our capacity to discern human impact, where the tools of population genetics and molecular epidemiology have begun to shed light on our historical and ongoing influence. Only since the 1990s have parasitologists coupled morphological diagnosis, long considered the basis of surveillance and biodiversity studies, with state-of-the-art tools enabling variation to be examined among, and within, parasite populations. Prior to this time, populations were characterized only by phenotypic attributes such as virulence, infectivity, host range, and geographical location. The advent of genetic/molecular methodologies (multilocus allozyme electrophoresis, polymerase chain reaction-DNA [PCR-DNA] fragments analysis, DNA sequencing, DNA microsatellites, single nucleotide polymorphisms, etc.) have transformed our abilities to reveal variation among, and within, populations at local, regional, landscape, and global scales, and thereby enhanced our understanding of the biosphere. Numerous factors can affect population structure among parasites, e.g., evolutionary and ecological history, mode of reproduction and transmission, host dispersal, and life-cycle complexity. Although such influences can vary considerably among parasite taxa, anthropogenic factors are demonstrably perturbing parasite fauna. Minimal genetic structure among many geographically distinct (isolated) populations is a hallmark of human activity, hastened by geographic introductions, environmental perturbation, and global warming. Accelerating

  11. Formation of nanoparticles of blue haze enhanced by anthropogenic pollution

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Renyi; Wang, Lin; Khalizov, Alexei F.; Zhao, Jun; Zheng, Jun; McGraw, Robert L.; Molina, Luisa T.

    2009-01-01

    The molecular processes leading to formation of nanoparticles of blue haze over forested areas are highly complex and not fully understood. We show that the interaction between biogenic organic acids and sulfuric acid enhances nucleation and initial growth of those nanoparticles. With one cis-pinonic acid and three to five sulfuric acid molecules in the critical nucleus, the hydrophobic organic acid part enhances the stability and growth on the hydrophilic sulfuric acid counterpart. Dimers or heterodimers of biogenic organic acids alone are unfavorable for new particle formation and growth because of their hydrophobicity. Condensation of low-volatility organic acids is hindered on nano-sized particles, whereas ammonia contributes negligibly to particle growth in the size range of 3–30 nm. The results suggest that initial growth from the critical nucleus to the detectable size of 2–3 nm most likely occurs by condensation of sulfuric acid and water, implying that anthropogenic sulfur emissions (mainly from power plants) strongly influence formation of terrestrial biogenic particles and exert larger direct and indirect climate forcing than previously recognized. PMID:19815498

  12. A dynamic model for the global cycling of anthropogenic vanadium - article no. GB4021

    SciTech Connect

    Hope, B.K.

    2008-12-15

    Vanadium is a major trace metal in fossil fuels. Combustion of residual fuel oils and coal in industrialized economies is recognized as the major source of anthropogenic vanadium. A dynamic mass balance model assessed the influence of anthropogenic inputs on the global distribution and cycling of vanadium between 1700 and 2100 assuming different fossil fuel consumption and V production (mining) scenarios. Anthropogenic V sources were divided into fossil fuel combustion, industrial, and domestic (nonindustrial human activity). By 2050, inputs of anthropogenic V could comprise approximate to 75-85% of those to the atmosphere, approximate to 21-33% to ocean dissolved, approximate to 9-13% to ocean particulate, and approximate to 28-43% of inputs to land; with between approximate to 61-64% of all anthropogenic inputs attributable to fossil fuel combustion. Contributions from combustion and industrial sources, although dominant relative to contributions from domestic sources between 1900 and 2100, were estimated to peak between 2000 and 2050. Accumulation of anthropogenic V on land and in the ocean apparently occurs because natural removal processes are unable to cope with increasing amounts and rates of anthropogenic contributions. Impacts or hazards associated with anthropogenic inputs are unlikely to be discernible or significant on a global scale, but may be measurable and meaningful at smaller scales (coastal waters, continental shelves, and bays), in the locality of specific sources, or given an unfavorable exposure scenario.

  13. Enhanced SOA formation from mixed anthropogenic and biogenic emissions during the CARES campaign

    SciTech Connect

    Shilling, John E.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Fast, Jerome D.; Kleinman, Lawrence I.; Alexander, M. L.; Canagaratna, Manjula R.; Fortner, Edward; Hubbe, John M.; Jayne, John T.; Sedlacek, Art; Setyan, Ari; Springston, S.; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zhang, Qi

    2013-02-21

    The CARES campaign was conducted during June, 2010 in the vicinity of Sacramento, California to study aerosol formation and aging in a region where anthropogenic and biogenic emissions regularly mix. Here, we describe measurements from an Aerodyne High Resolution Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS), an Ionicon Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), and trace gas detectors (CO, NO, NOx) deployed on the G-1 research aircraft to investigate ambient gas- and particle-phase chemical composition. AMS measurements showed that the particle phase is dominated by organic aerosol (OA) (85% on average) with smaller concentrations of sulfate (5%), nitrate (6%) and ammonium (3%) observed. PTR-MS data showed that isoprene dominated the biogenic volatile organic compound concentrations (BVOCs), with monoterpene concentrations generally below the detection limit. Using two different metrics, median OA concentrations and the slope of plots of OA vs. CO concentrations (i.e., ΔOA/ΔCO), we contrast organic aerosol evolution on flight days with different prevailing meteorological conditions to elucidate the role of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on OA formation. Airmasses influenced predominantly by biogenic emissions had median OA concentrations of 2.9 μg/m3 and near zero ΔOA/ΔCO. Those influenced predominantly by anthropogenic emissions had median OA concentrations of 4.7 μg/m3 and ΔOA/ΔCO ratios of 35 - 44 μg/m3ppmv. When biogenic and anthropogenic emissions mix, OA levels are dramatically enhanced with median OA concentrations of 11.4 μg/m3 and ΔOA/ΔCO ratios of 77 - 157 μg/m3ppmv. Taken together, our observations show that production of OA is enhanced when anthropogenic emissions from Sacramento mix with isoprene-rich air from the foothills. A strong, non-linear dependence of SOA yield from isoprene is the mechanistic explanation for this enhancement most consistent with both the gas- and particle-phase data. If these observations are found to be robust

  14. Anthropogenically enhanced chemical weathering and carbon evasion in the Yangtze Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jingheng; Wang, Fushun; Vogt, Rolf David; Zhang, Yuhang; Liu, Cong-Qiang

    2015-07-01

    Chemical weathering is a fundamental geochemical process regulating the atmosphere-land-ocean fluxes and earth’s climate. It is under natural conditions driven primarily by weak carbonic acid that originates from atmosphere CO2 or soil respiration. Chemical weathering is therefore assumed as positively coupled with its CO2 consumption in contemporary geochemistry. Strong acids (i.e. sulfuric- and nitric acid) from anthropogenic sources have been found to influence the weathering rate and CO2 consumption, but their integrated effects remain absent in the world largest river basins. By interpreting the water chemistry and overall proton budget in the Yangtze Basin, we found that anthropogenic acidification had enhanced the chemical weathering by 40% during the past three decades, leading to an increase of 30% in solute discharged to the ocean. Moreover, substitution of carbonic acid by strong acids increased inorganic carbon evasion, offsetting 30% of the CO2 consumption by carbonic weathering. Our assessments show that anthropogenic loadings of sulfuric and nitrogen compounds accelerate chemical weathering but lower its CO2 sequestration. These findings have significant relevance to improving our contemporary global biogeochemical budgets.

  15. Anthropogenically enhanced chemical weathering and carbon evasion in the Yangtze Basin

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Jingheng; Wang, Fushun; Vogt, Rolf David; Zhang, Yuhang; Liu, Cong-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Chemical weathering is a fundamental geochemical process regulating the atmosphere-land-ocean fluxes and earth’s climate. It is under natural conditions driven primarily by weak carbonic acid that originates from atmosphere CO2 or soil respiration. Chemical weathering is therefore assumed as positively coupled with its CO2 consumption in contemporary geochemistry. Strong acids (i.e. sulfuric- and nitric acid) from anthropogenic sources have been found to influence the weathering rate and CO2 consumption, but their integrated effects remain absent in the world largest river basins. By interpreting the water chemistry and overall proton budget in the Yangtze Basin, we found that anthropogenic acidification had enhanced the chemical weathering by 40% during the past three decades, leading to an increase of 30% in solute discharged to the ocean. Moreover, substitution of carbonic acid by strong acids increased inorganic carbon evasion, offsetting 30% of the CO2 consumption by carbonic weathering. Our assessments show that anthropogenic loadings of sulfuric and nitrogen compounds accelerate chemical weathering but lower its CO2 sequestration. These findings have significant relevance to improving our contemporary global biogeochemical budgets. PMID:26150000

  16. The Role of Anthropogenic-Induced Surface Temperature Change on Regional Enhanced Warming over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, X.; Huang, J.; Guo, R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, the long-term trend and decadal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) are studied by using observation data from 1901-2009. We found that the warming trends of the semi-arid regions are higher than other lands, which have increased 2.42°C as compared to the global annual mean temperature increase of 1.13°C over land. To investigate the causes of Enhanced Semi-Arid Warming (ESAW), we used an advanced dynamic-adjusted method proposed by Wallace et al. (2012) to analyse the contribution of dynamically-induced and anthropogenic-induced SAT changes to ESAW. In the process of dynamic adjustment, the temperature has been divided into two parts, one for the dynamic forcing induced temperature, and the other for the temperature associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases and the other various radiative forcing. The results show that the anthropogenic-warming peak over semi-arid region plays the main role in the ESAW. Such anthropogenic warming peak may be related to reduction of snow cover due to black carbon (BC) emission by fuels for winter residential heating. Besides the impact of BC in snow, the agricultural mulch creation, wind farms and other types of human activities may also make attribution to local SAT changes that need to be further studied.

  17. Global Change in Earth's Atmosphere: Natural and Anthropogenic Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lean, J.

    2013-12-01

    To what extent is human activity, such as the emission of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse' gases, influencing Earth's atmosphere, compared with natural variations driven by, for example, the Sun or volcanoes? Why has Earth's surface warmed barely, if at all, in the last decade? Why is the atmosphere at just 20 km above the surface cooling instead of warming? When - and will - the ozone layer recover from its two-decade decline due to chlorofluorocarbon depletion? Natural and anthropogenic factors are changing Earth's atmosphere, each with distinct temporal, geographical and altitudinal signatures. Increasing greenhouse gases, for example, warm the surface but cool the stratosphere and upper atmosphere. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during a volcanic eruption warm the stratosphere but cool the surface. Increases in the Sun's brightness warm Earth's atmosphere, throughout. This talk will quantify and compare a variety of natural and human influences on the Earth's atmosphere, extracted statistically from multiple datasets with the goal of understanding how and why Earth's atmosphere is changing. The extent to which responses to natural influences are presently masking or exacerbating ongoing responses to human activity is examined. Scenarios for future levels of anthropogenic gases and solar activity are then used to speculate how Earth's atmosphere might evolve in future decades, according to both statistical models of the databases and physical general circulation models.

  18. On the role of plant volatiles in anthropogenic global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, Nadine

    2014-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems undergo rapid oxidation in the atmosphere that affects multiple warming and cooling climate pollutants. Since the preindustrial, BVOC-chemistry-climate interactions have been strongly influenced by anthropogenic changes in land cover, pollution emissions, and the physical climate state. Here, an Earth system model is applied to quantify the effects of BVOC emissions on the global radiation balance in the 1850s and 2000s including changes to tropospheric ozone, methane, and direct aerosol-radiation interactions. The net chemical forcing of global climate due to all known anthropogenic influences on BVOC emissions is -0.17 Wm-2 (cooling) that offsets the +0.10 Wm-2 (warming) due to anthropogenic VOC emissions from fossil fuel use and industry for this time period. BVOC emissions need to be included in assessments of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  19. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-07-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report.

  20. Anthropogenic effects on global riverine sediment and water discharge - a spatially explicit analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A. J.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in global riverine water discharge and suspended sediment flux over a 50-year period, 1960-2010 are studied, applying a new version of the WBMsed (WBMsed v.2.0) global hydrological water balance model. A new floodplain component is introduced to better represent water and sediment dynamics during periods of overbank discharge. Validated against data from 16 globally distributed stations, WBMsed v.2.0 simulation results show considerable improvement over the original model. Anthropogenic impact on sediment and water discharge is evaluated by comparing global scale simulations with and without human drivers and parameters (agricultural land use, water intake form aquifers and rivers, sediment trapping in reservoirs, and human-induced soil erosion). The results show that, on average, global riverine sediment flux is reduced by approximately 25% by anthropogenic activities (almost exclusively due to trapping in reservoirs) while water discharge is reduced by about 2%. These results correspond to previous analysis by other research groups. Substantial global and intra-basin variability is observed (see Figure 1) for the first time. In some regions an opposite anthropogenic effect on sediment and water discharge was predicted (e.g. west Mississippi Basin, Rio Grande River, Indian subcontinent). We discuss the western part of the Mississippi Basin as an example of this intriguing anthropogenic impact. Figure 1. Percent change between disturbed and pristine simulations (with and without human footprint respectively) for sediment flux (top) and water discharge (bottom).

  1. Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

  2. Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Okumura, Yuko M.

    2016-01-01

    The Earth's energy budget for the past four decades can now be closed, and it supports anthropogenic greenhouse forcing as the cause for climate warming. However, closure depends on invoking an unrealistically large increase in aerosol cooling during the so-called global warming hiatus since the late 1990s (refs ,) that was due partly to tropical Pacific Ocean cooling. The difficulty with this closure lies in the assumption that the same climate feedback applies to both anthropogenic warming and natural cooling. Here we analyse climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, and show that top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature are much less tightly coupled for natural decadal variability than for the greenhouse-gas-induced response, implying distinct climate feedback between anthropogenic warming and natural variability. In addition, we identify a phase difference between top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature such that ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during the surface warming hiatus. This result deviates from existing energy theory but we find that it is broadly consistent with observations. Our study highlights the importance of developing metrics that distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variations to attribute climate variability and to estimate climate sensitivity from observations.

  3. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

    2013-01-31

    As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes. PMID:23364744

  4. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lean, Judith L.; Rind, David H.

    2008-09-01

    To distinguish between simultaneous natural and anthropogenic impacts on surface temperature, regionally as well as globally, we perform a robust multivariate analysis using the best available estimates of each together with the observed surface temperature record from 1889 to 2006. The results enable us to compare, for the first time from observations, the geographical distributions of responses to individual influences consistent with their global impacts. We find a response to solar forcing quite different from that reported in several papers published recently in this journal, and zonally averaged responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings that differ distinctly from those indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose conclusions depended on model simulations. Anthropogenic warming estimated directly from the historical observations is more pronounced between 45°S and 50°N than at higher latitudes whereas the model-simulated trends have minimum values in the tropics and increase steadily from 30 to 70°N.

  5. Global inventory of volatile organic compound emissions from anthropogenic sources. Final report, March 1988-September 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, J.J.; Probert, J.A.; Piccot, S.D.

    1991-01-01

    The report describes a global inventory of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions that includes a separate inventory for each of seven pollutant groups--paraffins, olefins, aromatics, formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and marginally reactive compounds. The inventory, one input to atmospheric chemistry models required to estimate the global atmospheric concentration of ozone, is part of an assessment of the potential environmental impacts associated with global climate change. Study results show total global anthropogenic emissions of about 121 million short tons of VOCs per year. The U.S. is the largest emitter with 21% of the total. Globally, fuelwood combustion and savanna burning are the largest sources, together accounting for over 35% of global VOC emissions. The approach used to develop the inventory involved: (1) identifying the major anthropogenic sources of VOC emissions in the U.S. and grouping them into categories; (2) developing emission factors by dividing the U.S. emissions by the amount of production or consumption of the related commodity in the U.S.; (3) multiplying the U.S. emission factors by production/consumption statistics for other countries to yield global VOC emission estimates; and (4) geographically distributing the emissions.

  6. GLOBAL METHANE EMISSIONS FROM MINOR ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES AND BIOFUEL COMBUSTION IN RESIDENTIAL STOVES (JOURNAL)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Most global methane (CH4) budgets have failed to include emissions from a diverse group of minor anthropogenic sources. Individually, these minor sources emit small quantities of CH4, but collectively, their contributions to the budget may be significant. In this paper, CH4 emiss...

  7. A global ocean inventory of anthropogenic mercury based on water column measurements.

    PubMed

    Lamborg, Carl H; Hammerschmidt, Chad R; Bowman, Katlin L; Swarr, Gretchen J; Munson, Kathleen M; Ohnemus, Daniel C; Lam, Phoebe J; Heimbürger, Lars-Eric; Rijkenberg, Micha J A; Saito, Mak A

    2014-08-01

    Mercury is a toxic, bioaccumulating trace metal whose emissions to the environment have increased significantly as a result of anthropogenic activities such as mining and fossil fuel combustion. Several recent models have estimated that these emissions have increased the oceanic mercury inventory by 36-1,313 million moles since the 1500s. Such predictions have remained largely untested owing to a lack of appropriate historical data and natural archives. Here we report oceanographic measurements of total dissolved mercury and related parameters from several recent expeditions to the Atlantic, Pacific, Southern and Arctic oceans. We find that deep North Atlantic waters and most intermediate waters are anomalously enriched in mercury relative to the deep waters of the South Atlantic, Southern and Pacific oceans, probably as a result of the incorporation of anthropogenic mercury. We estimate the total amount of anthropogenic mercury present in the global ocean to be 290 ± 80 million moles, with almost two-thirds residing in water shallower than a thousand metres. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic perturbations to the global mercury cycle have led to an approximately 150 per cent increase in the amount of mercury in thermocline waters and have tripled the mercury content of surface waters compared to pre-anthropogenic conditions. This information may aid our understanding of the processes and the depths at which inorganic mercury species are converted into toxic methyl mercury and subsequently bioaccumulated in marine food webs. PMID:25100482

  8. Enhanced shortwave cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, S.E.; Slingo, A.

    1995-05-01

    It has been suggested that anthropogenic aerosols in the troposphere can influence the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their reflectivity, thereby exerting a radiative influence on climate. This article presents the theoretical basis for of this so-called indirect forcing and reviews pertinent observational evidence and climate model calculations of its magnitude and geographical distribution. We restrict consideration to liquid-water clouds.

  9. COMPILATION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

    SciTech Connect

    BENKOVITZ,C.M.

    2002-11-01

    The mathematical modeling of the transport and transformation of trace species in the atmosphere is one of the scientific tools currently used to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions. From the scientific but also from the management perspectives accurate inventories of emissions of the trace species at the appropriate spatial, temporal, and species resolution are required. There are two general methodologies used to estimate regional to global emissions: bottom-up and top-down (also known as inverse modeling). Bottom-up methodologies to estimate industrial emissions are based on activity data, emission factors (amount of emissions per unit activity), and for some inventories additional parameters (such as sulfur content of fuels). Generally these emissions estimates must be given finer sectoral, spatial (usually gridded), temporal, and for some inventories species resolution. Temporal and spatial resolution are obtained via the use of surrogate information, such as population, land use, traffic counts, etc. which already exists in or can directly be converted to gridded form. Speciation factors have been and are being developed to speciate inventories of NO{sub x}, particulate matter, and hydrocarbons. Top-down (inverse modeling) methodologies directly invert air quality measurements in terms of poorly known but critical parameters to constrain the emissions needed to explain these measurements; values of these parameters are usually computed using atmospheric transport models. Currently there are several strong limitations of inverse modeling, but the continued evolution of top-down estimates will be facilitated by the development of denser monitoring networks and by the massive amounts of data from satellite observations.

  10. Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirrone, N.; Cinnirella, S.; Feng, X.; Finkelman, R. B.; Friedli, H. R.; Leaner, J.; Mason, R.; Mukherjee, A. B.; Stracher, G. B.; Streets, D. G.; Telmer, K.

    2010-02-01

    This paper provides an up-to-date assessment of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. On an annual basis, natural sources account for 5207 Mg of mercury released to the global atmosphere, including the contribution from re-emission processes, which are emissions of previously deposited mercury originating from anthropogenic and natural sources, and primary emissions from natural reservoirs. Anthropogenic sources, which include a large number of industrial point sources, are estimated to account for 2320 Mg of mercury emitted annually. The major contributions are from fossil-fuel fired power plants (810 Mg yr-1), artisanal small scale gold mining (400 Mg yr-1), non-ferrous metals manufacturing (310 Mg yr-1), cement production (236 Mg yr-1), waste disposal (187 Mg yr-1) and caustic soda production (163 Mg yr-1). Therefore, our current estimate of global mercury emissions suggests that the overall contribution from natural sources (primary emissions+re-emissions) and anthropogenic sources is nearly 7527 Mg per year, the uncertainty associated with these estimates are related to the typology of emission sources and source regions.

  11. Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirrone, N.; Cinnirella, S.; Feng, X.; Finkelman, R. B.; Friedli, H. R.; Leaner, J.; Mason, R.; Mukherjee, A. B.; Stracher, G. B.; Streets, D. G.; Telmer, K.

    2010-07-01

    This paper provides an up-to-date assessment of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. On an annual basis, natural sources account for 5207 Mg of mercury released to the global atmosphere, including the contribution from re-emission processes, which are emissions of previously deposited mercury originating from anthropogenic and natural sources, and primary emissions from natural reservoirs. Anthropogenic sources, which include a large number of industrial point sources, are estimated to account for 2320 Mg of mercury emitted annually. The major contributions are from fossil-fuel fired power plants (810 Mg yr-1), artisanal small scale gold mining (400 Mg yr-1), non-ferrous metals manufacturing (310 Mg yr-1), cement production (236 Mg yr-1), waste disposal (187 Mg yr-1) and caustic soda production (163 Mg yr-1). Therefore, our current estimate of global mercury emissions suggests that the overall contribution from natural sources (primary emissions + re-emissions) and anthropogenic sources is nearly 7527 Mg per year, the uncertainty associated with these estimates are related to the typology of emission sources and source regions.

  12. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Page, Y.; Morton, D.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Pereira, J. M. C.; Hurtt, G.

    2015-02-01

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human-Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  13. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  14. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Joos, F.; Stocker, T.

    1996-11-01

    The major emphasis of our DOE funded research was to study the redistribution of anthropogenic carbon in the climate system and to constrain the global budgets of anthropogenic carbon and the carbon isotopes {sup 13}C and {sup 14}C for the historical period. We have continued the development of box models of the ocean carbon cycle (HILDA model) and the land biota. The coupled model (Bern model) was chosen as the reference model for scenario calculations and the calculations of global warming potential by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These models were applied (1) to estimate the uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean and the land biosphere for the last 200 years; (2) to investigate uncertainties in deconvolved fertilization fluxes into the land biota due to uncertainties in ice core CO{sub 2} data; (3) to study the relationship between future atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels and carbon emissions; (4) to investigate the budgets of bomb-produced radiocarbon and fossil {sup 13}C. We assessed the utility of bomb-produced and natural {sup 13}C observations to validate ocean models of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} uptake and tested the eddy diffusion parameterization of large-scale vertical transport in ocean box models. For this, vertical tracer transport in box-diffusion models and the 3-D ocean general circulation model from GFDL/Princeton was compared. We analyzed the distribution of the conservative property {Delta}C* to obtain a direct estimate based on marine measurements of the uptake of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} by the North Atlantic. We contribute to the missing sink debate by using atmospheric CO{sub 2} and {sup 13}C levels to disentangle the net carbon fluxes into the land biota and the ocean. A simplified representation for 4 different ocean models of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} uptake based on mixed-layer pulse response functions was developed.

  15. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  16. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  17. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  18. Global Gray Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels Related to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Loads to Fresh Water.

    PubMed

    Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2015-11-01

    This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater, calculate the resultant gray water footprints (GWFs), and relate the GWFs per river basin to runoff to calculate the N-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment. The accumulated global GWF related to anthropogenic N loads in the period 2002-2010 was 13×10(12) m3/y. China contributed about 45% to the global total. Three quarters of the GWF related to N loads came from diffuse sources (agriculture), 23% from domestic point sources and 2% from industrial point sources. Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the N-related GWF (18%), followed by vegetables (15%) and oil crops (11%). The river basins with WPL>1 (where the N load exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity), cover about 17% of the global land area, contribute about 9% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to 48% of the global population. PMID:26440220

  19. Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours.

    PubMed

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial. PMID:24567746

  20. Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours

    PubMed Central

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial. PMID:24567746

  1. Modeling anthropogenically controlled secondary organic aerosols in a megacity: a simplified framework for global and climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodzic, A.; Jimenez, J. L.

    2011-10-01

    with observations. The potential enhancement of biogenic SOA by anthropogenic pollution, which has been suggested to play a major role in global SOA formation, is also tested using two simple parameterizations. Our results suggest that the pollution enhancement of biogenic SOA could provide additional SOA, but does not however explain the concentrations or the spatial and temporal variations of measured SOA mass in the vicinity of Mexico City, which appears to be controlled by anthropogenic sources. The contribution of the biomass burning to the predicted SOA is less than 10% during the studied period.

  2. Assembling the Anthropocene: The global significance of anthropogenic sediment flux through the creation of artificial ground

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, S.; Ford, J. R.; Waters, C. N.; Cooper, A. H.

    2012-12-01

    Deliberate, current and historical modification of the landscape and its subsurface by humans creates novel sediments and landforms in the form of artificial ground. The rate and magnitude of artificial ground created through the excavation, transport and deposition of mixtures of rock and soil has varied through time, but it is now significant on a global scale. It is estimated that the annual deliberate anthropogenic movement of rock and soil exceeds that of sediment transfer to the oceans by a factor of three (Douglas & Lawson 2001). In the UK alone, it is estimated that 66 530 M (Million) tonnes (ca. 40 km3) of material has been moved in response to mineral exploitation and processing over ca. 200 years (Price et al. 2011). This compares to an estimated global annual 57 000 M tonnes of material being moved deliberately by humans (Douglas & Lawson 2001). The scale of early mineral workings and land domestication for food production rapidly expanded as human population grew. Subsequent industrialisation, burning of fossil fuels and increased urbanisation in developed countries escalated the demand for diverse natural resources and the scale of land transformation. Mineral extraction and processing make up a significant proportion of the global anthropogenic sediment cycle. Mineral production offers a key indicator of the magnitude and rate of anthropogenic change and its impact on global sediment flux. Wastes from mineral production constitute 'hidden flows' when accounting for anthropogenic sediment flux (Douglas & Lawson 2001) but are often significant. The amount of waste produced during mineral exploitation often exceeds the amount of ore won by up to, and sometimes exceeding, a factor of 30. Using key commodity indicators, including coal and iron ore, distinct trends in the rates and volumes of mineral production are calculated and observed. The volume of production and associated hidden flows of anthropogenic sediments is observed to increase rapidly ca

  3. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  4. A Global inventory of volatile organic compound emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccot, Stephen D.; Watson, Joel J.; Jones, Julian W.

    1992-06-01

    As part of an effort to assess the potential impacts associated with global climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development is supporting global atmospheric chemistry research by developing global scale estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (excluding methane). Atmospheric chemistry models require, as one input, an emissions inventory of VOCs. Consequently, a global inventory of anthropogenic VOC emissions has been developed. The inventory includes VOC estimates for seven classes of VOCs: paraffins, olefins, aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene), formaldehyde, other aldehydes, other aromatics, and marginally reactive compounds. These classes represent general classes of VOC compounds which possess different chemical reactivities in the atmosphere. The technical approach used to develop this inventory involved four major steps. The first step was to identify the major anthropogenic sources of VOC emissions in the United States and to group these sources into 28 general source groups. Source groups were developed to represent general categories such as "sources associated with oil and natural gas production" and more specific categories such as savanna buming. Emission factors for these source groups were then developed using different techniques and data bases. For example, emission factors for oil and natural gas production were estimated by dividing the United States' emissions from oil and gas production operations by the amount of oil and natural gas produced in the United States. Multiplication of these emission factors by production/consumption statistics for other countries yielded global VOC emission estimates for specific source groups within those countries. The final step in development of the VOC inventory was to distribute emissions into 10° by 10° grid cells using detailed maps of population and industrial activity. The results of this study show total global anthropogenic VOC emissions of

  5. Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle as a result of agricultural carbon erosion and burial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Govers, Gerard; Kaplan, Jed; Hoffmann, Thomas; Doetterl, Sebastian; Six, Johan; Van Oost, Kristof

    2016-04-01

    Changes in terrestrial carbon storage exert a strong control over atmospheric CO2 concentrations but the underlying mechanisms are not fully constrained. Anthropogenic land cover change is considered to represent an important carbon loss mechanism, but current assessments do not consider the associated acceleration of carbon erosion and burial in sediments. We evaluated the role of anthropogenic soil erosion and the resulting carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere from the onset of agriculture to the present day. We show, here, that agricultural erosion induced a significant cumulative net uptake of 198±57 Pg carbon on terrestrial ecosystems. This erosion-induced soil carbon sink is estimated to have offset 74±21% of carbon emissions. Since 1850, erosion fluxes have increased 3-fold. As a result, the erosion and lateral transfer of organic carbon in relation to human activities is an important driver of the global carbon cycle at millennial timescales.

  6. Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Through Vegetation Clearance for Agriculture During the Last 6000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hickler, T.; Olofsson, J.; Miller, P. A.; Sykes, M. T.

    2008-12-01

    The mechanisms underlying the development of atmospheric CO2 over the Holocene and the potential role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing in pre-industrial times are still highly debated. We developed a global gridded data set of human land use for the last 6000 years, including permanent and shifting cultivation. The data set was mainly based on archaeological evidence on the global distribution of different types of human societies (empires and agricultural groups), the HYDE data base of land use since 1700, global population estimates, and assumptions concerning cultivation area per person. A dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ) was run with and without human land-use, and the difference in terrestrial carbon storage was assumed to represent the total anthropogenic carbon release to the atmosphere. Modeled total carbon release during the industrial period (A.D. 1850-1990) was 148 gigatons of carbon (GtC), of which 33 GtC originated from non-permanent agriculture. For pre-industrial times (4000 B.C. - A.D. 1850), the net carbon release was 79 GtC from permanent agriculture and 35 GtC from non-permanent agriculture. Modeled carbon release between 4000 and 0 B.C. was considerably lower than would be required for a substantial influence on the climate system. However, the extent of vegetation clearing before the year 1700 is highly uncertain. We suggest that various lines of evidence, and pollen analyses in particular, should be explored in order to test the hypothesis that many areas that were forested at the beginning of the industrial revolution had been cleared earlier. Even though the carbon storage in vegetation might have been restored in such areas, soil carbon storage could have been negatively affected. In summary, our results suggest that a substantial early anthropogenic impact on atmospheric CO2 is unlikely, but important uncertainties remain. We are currently addressing some of the uncertainties through a sensitivity analyses of the modeling

  7. Global emission of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in 2005 and projections to 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacyna, E. G.; Pacyna, J. M.; Sundseth, K.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.; Wilson, S.; Steenhuisen, F.; Maxson, P.

    2010-07-01

    This paper presents the 2005 global inventory of anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere component of the work that was prepared by UNEP and AMAP as a contribution to the UNEP report Global Atmospheric Mercury Assessment: Sources, Emissions and Transport ( UNEP Chemicals Branch, 2008). It describes the methodology applied to compile emissions data on the two main components of the inventory - the 'by-product' emissions and the 'intentional use' emissions - and to geospatially distribute these emissions estimates to produce a gridded dataset for use by modelers, and the results of this work. It also presents some initial results of work to develop (simplified) scenario emissions inventories for 2020 that can be used to investigate the possible implications of actions to reduce mercury emissions at the global scale.

  8. Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Previous estimates of the strength and the uncertainty of the observed Antarctic temperature trends assumed that the natural annual temperature fluctuations can be represented by an auto-regressive process of first order [AR(1)]. Here we find that this hypothesis is inadequate. We consider the longest observational temperature records in Antarctica and show that their variability is better represented by a long-term persistent process that has a propensity of large and enduring natural excursions from the mean. As a consequence, the statistical significance of the recent (presumably anthropogenic) Antarctic warming trend is lower than hitherto reported, while the uncertainty about its magnitude is enhanced. Indeed, all records except for one (Faraday/Vernadsky) fail to show a significant trend. When increasing the signal-to-noise ratio by considering appropriate averages of the local temperature series, we find that the warming trend is still not significant in East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. In West Antarctica, however, the significance of the trend is above 97.4 %, and its magnitude is between 0.08 and 0.96 °C per decade. We argue that the persistent temperature fluctuations not only have a larger impact on regional warming uncertainties than previously thought but also may provide a potential mechanism for understanding the transient weakening ("hiatus") of the regional and global temperature trends.

  9. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  10. Mapping the global journey of anthropogenic aluminum: a trade-linked multilevel material flow analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Gang; Müller, Daniel B

    2013-10-15

    Material cycles have become increasingly coupled and interconnected in a globalizing era. While material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely used to characterize stocks and flows along technological life cycle within a specific geographical area, trade networks among individual cycles have remained largely unexplored. Here we developed a trade-linked multilevel MFA model to map the contemporary global journey of anthropogenic aluminum. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic aluminum cycle depends substantially on international trade of aluminum in all forms and becomes highly interconnected in nature. While the Southern hemisphere is the main primary resource supplier, aluminum production and consumption concentrate in the Northern hemisphere, where we also find the largest potential for recycling. The more developed countries tend to have a substantial and increasing presence throughout the stages after bauxite refining and possess highly consumption-based cycles, thus maintaining advantages both economically and environmentally. A small group of countries plays a key role in the global redistribution of aluminum and in the connectivity of the network, which may render some countries vulnerable to supply disruption. The model provides potential insights to inform government and industry policies in resource criticality, supply chain security, value chain management, and cross-boundary environmental impacts mitigation. PMID:24025046

  11. The influence of natural and anthropogenic secondary sources on the glyoxal global distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Vrekoussis, M.; Tsigaridis, K.; Wittrock, F.; Richter, A.; Brühl, C.; Volkamer, R.; Burrows, J. P.; Kanakidou, M.

    2008-08-01

    Glyoxal, the smallest dicarbonyl, which has recently been observed from space, is expected to provide indications on volatile organic compounds (VOC) oxidation and secondary aerosol formation in the troposphere. Glyoxal (CHOCHO) is known to be mostly of natural origin and is produced during biogenic VOC oxidation. However, a number of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, like acetylene and aromatics, have been positively identified as CHOCHO precursors. The present study investigates the contribution of pollution to the CHOCHO levels by taking into account the secondary chemical formation of CHOCHO from precursors emitted from biogenic, anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. The impact of potential primary land emissions of CHOCHO is also investigated. A global 3-dimensional chemistry transport model of the troposphere (TM4-ECPL) able to simulate the gas phase chemistry coupled with all major aerosol components is used. The secondary anthropogenic contribution from fossil fuel and industrial VOCs emissions oxidation to the CHOCHO columns is found to reach 20 70% in the industrialized areas of the Northern Hemisphere and 3 20% in the tropics. This secondary CHOCHO source is on average three times larger than that from oxidation of VOCs from biomass burning sources. The chemical production of CHOCHO is calculated to equal to about 56 Tg y-1 with 70% being produced from biogenic hydrocarbons oxidation, 17% from acetylene, 11% from aromatic chemistry and 2% from ethene and propene. CHOCHO is destroyed in the troposphere primarily by reaction with OH radicals (23%) and by photolysis (63%), but it is also removed from the atmosphere through wet (8%) and dry deposition (6%). Potential formation of secondary organic aerosol through CHOCHO losses on/in aerosols and clouds is neglected here due to the significant uncertainties associated with the underlying chemistry. The global annual mean CHOCHO burden and lifetime in the model domain are estimated to be 0.02 Tg

  12. Global scale precipitation from monthly to centennial scales: empirical space-time scaling analysis, anthropogenic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    The characterization of precipitation scaling regimes represents a key contribution to the improved understanding of space-time precipitation variability, which is the focus here. We conduct space-time scaling analyses of spectra and Haar fluctuations in precipitation, using three global scale precipitation products (one instrument based, one reanalysis based, one satellite and gauge based), from monthly to centennial scales and planetary down to several hundred kilometers in spatial scale. Results show the presence - similarly to other atmospheric fields - of an intermediate "macroweather" regime between the familiar weather and climate regimes: we characterize systematically the macroweather precipitation temporal and spatial, and joint space-time statistics and variability, and the outer scale limit of temporal scaling. These regimes qualitatively and quantitatively alternate in the way fluctuations vary with scale. In the macroweather regime, the fluctuations diminish with time scale (this is important for seasonal, annual, and decadal forecasts) while anthropogenic effects increase with time scale. Our approach determines the time scale at which the anthropogenic signal can be detected above the natural variability noise: the critical scale is about 20 - 40 yrs (depending on the product, on the spatial scale). This explains for example why studies that use data covering only a few decades do not easily give evidence of anthropogenic changes in precipitation, as a consequence of warming: the period is too short. Overall, while showing that precipitation can be modeled with space-time scaling processes, our results clarify the different precipitation scaling regimes and further allow us to quantify the agreement (and lack of agreement) of the precipitation products as a function of space and time scales. Moreover, this work contributes to clarify a basic problem in hydro-climatology, which is to measure precipitation trends at decadal and longer scales and to

  13. Global-scale patterns in anthropogenic Pb contamination reconstructed from natural archives.

    PubMed

    Marx, Samuel K; Rashid, Shaqer; Stromsoe, Nicola

    2016-06-01

    During the past two centuries metal loads in the Earth's atmosphere and ecosystems have increased significantly over pre-industrial levels. This has been associated with deleterious effects to ecosystem processes and human health. The magnitude of this toxic metal burden, as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of metal enrichment, is recorded in sedimentary archives across the globe. This paper presents a compilation of selected Pb contamination records from lakes (n = 10), peat mires (n = 10) and ice fields (n = 7) from Europe, North and South America, Asia, Australia and the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar regions. These records quantify changes in Pb enrichment in remote from source environments. The presence of anthropogenic Pb in the environment has a long history, extending as far back as the early to mid-Holocene in North America, Europe and East Asia. However, results show that Pb contamination in the Earth's environment became globally ubiquitous at the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution (c.1850-1890 CE), after which the magnitude of Pb contamination increased significantly. This date therefore serves as an effective global marker for the onset of the Anthropocene. Current global average Pb enrichment rates are between 6 and 35 times background, however Pb contamination loads are spatially variable. For example, they are >100 times background in Europe and North America and 5-15 times background in Antarctica. Despite a recent decline in Pb loads in some regions, most notably Europe and North America, anthropogenic Pb remains highly enriched and universally present in global ecosystems, while concentrations are increasing in some regions (Australia, Asia and parts of South America and Antarctica). There is, however, a paucity of Pb enrichment records outside of Europe, which limits assessments of global contamination. PMID:26924757

  14. Global direct radiative forcing due to multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2001-01-01

    Global simulations of the composition of and direct forcing due to aerosols containing natural and/or anthropogenic sulfate, nitrate, chloride, carbonate, ammonium, sodium, calcium, magnesium, potassium, black carbon, organic matter, silica, ferrous oxide, and aluminum oxide were carried out. Chloride and natural sulfate were found to be the most important natural aerosol constituents in the atmosphere in terms of solar plus thermal-infrared forcing. Sea spray was the most important natural aerosol type, indicating that it should be accounted for in weather and climate calculations. Ammonium was found to have a positive direct forcing, since it reduces water uptake in sulfate-containing solutions; thus, anthropogenic ammonium contributes to global warming. The magnitudes of ammonium and nitrate forcing were smaller than those of chloride or sulfate forcing. When organics were divided into three groups with different assumed UV absorption characteristics, total aerosol direct forcing at the tropopause increased by about +0.03 to +0.05 W m-2 (direct forcing by organics remained negative), suggesting that UV absorption by organics is a nontrivial component of the global energy balance. Gypsum [CaSO4-2H2O], sal ammoniac [NH4Cl], halite [NaCl], halite, and nitrum [KNO3] were estimated to be the most common sulfate-, ammonium-, sodium-, chloride-, and nitrate-containing solid-phase aerosol constituents, respectively, in the global atmosphere. Solid formation in aerosols was found to increase total-aerosol direct forcing by +0.03 to +0.05 W m-2. Spatial and vertical forcing estimates, sensitivities of forcing to relative humidity and concentration, and estimates of global aerosol liquid water content are given. Modeled aerosol optical properties are compared with satellite and field measurements.

  15. Modeling anthropogenically-controled secondary organic aerosols in a megacity: a simplified framework for global and climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodzic, A.; Jimenez, J. L.

    2011-04-01

    A simplified parameterization for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in polluted air and biomass burning smoke is tested and optimized in this work, towards the goal of a computationally inexpensive method to calculate pollution and biomass burning SOA in global and climate models. A regional chemistry-transport model is used as the testbed for the parameterization, which is compared against observations from the Mexico City metropolitan area during the MILAGRO 2006 field experiment. The empirical parameterization is based on the observed proportionality of SOA concentrations to excess CO and photochemical age of the airmass. The approach consists in emitting an organic gas as lumped SOA precursor surrogate proportional to anthropogenic or biomass burning CO emissions according to the observed ratio between SOA and CO in aged air, and reacting this surrogate with OH into a single non-volatile species that condenses to form SOA. An emission factor of 0.08 g of the lumped SOA precursor per g of CO and a rate constant with OH of 1.25 × 10-11 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 reproduce the observed average SOA mass within 30% in the urban area and downwind. When a 2.5 times slower rate is used (5 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1) the predicted SOA amount and temporal evolution is nearly identical to the results obtained with SOA formation from semi-volatile and intermediate volatility primary organic vapors according to the Robinson et al. (2007) formulation. Our simplified method has the advantage of being much less computationally expensive than Robinson-type methods, and can be used in regions where the emissions of SOA precursors are not yet available. As the aged pollution SOA/ΔCO ratios are rather consistent globally, this parameterization could be reasonably tested in and applied to other regions. The potential enhancement of biogenic SOA by anthropogenic pollution, which has been suggested to play a major role in global SOA formation, is also tested using two simple

  16. A comprehensive global inventory of atmospheric Antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities, 1995-2010.

    PubMed

    Tian, Hezhong; Zhou, JunRui; Zhu, Chuanyong; Zhao, Dan; Gao, Jiajia; Hao, Jiming; He, Mengchang; Liu, Kaiyun; Wang, Kun; Hua, Shenbing

    2014-09-01

    Antimony (Sb) and its compounds are considered as global pollutants due to their health risks and long-range transport characteristics. A comprehensive global inventory of atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities during the period of 1995-2010 has been developed with specific estimation methods based on the relevant data available for different continents and countries. Our results indicate that the global antimony emissions have increased to a peak at about 2232 t (t) in 2005 and then declined gradually. Global antimony emissions in 2010 are estimated at about 1904 t (uncertainty of a 95% confidence interval (CI): -30% ∼ 67%), with fuel combustion as the major source category. Asia and Europe account for about 57% and 24%, respectively, of the global total emissions, and China, the United States, and Japan rank as the top three emitting countries. Furthermore, global antimony emissions are distributed into gridded cells with a resolution of 1° × 1°. Regions with high Sb emissions are generally concentrated in the Southeastern Asia and Western Europe, while South Africa, economically developed regions in the eastern U.S., and Mexico are also responsible for the high antimony emission intensity. PMID:25110938

  17. Anthropogenic impacts on the global water cycle - a multi model approach.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, F.; haddeland, I.; Biemans, H.; Clark, D.; Fransen, W.; Voss, F.; Floerke, M.; Heinke, J.; Hagemann, S.; Hanasakki, N.; Gerten, D.; Kabat, P.

    2012-04-01

    Humans activities have a large impact on the global water cycle. Through the building of dams and irrigation schemes large amounts of water are diverted from river systems. Through the emission of greenhouse gases causing global warming, also the rainfall and evaporation patterns are changed across the globe. It is, however, still difficult to quantify current and future impacts on the global water cycle due to limited data availability, model imperfections and large uncertainties in climate change projections. To partly overcome these limitations we used a multi-model approach to study anthropogenic impacts on the global water cycle. Four different global hydrological models (H08, VIC, WaterGAP and LPJml) were forced with an historical climate dataset (Watch Forcing Data) and bias corrected output of three different global climate models (Echam, IPSL and CNRM) using two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). In addition the LPJml model was also run with two different land use change scenarios. Combining the water availability simulations with the water demand scenarios developed within the Watch project we also analyzed current and future water scarcity. The analyses show that current human impacts and on the water cycle are especially high in Central Asia, parts of Europe, the Southwestern US and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. The model comparison of agricultural water use and demand showed that the differences in total global agricultural demand and water use were relatively smaller than the differences in simulated water availability. All models showed agricultural water extractions are high in South and East Asia in particular in Northern India and Pakistan and in Northeast China. The most important spatial differences between the different models was observed for Northern China where H08 showed much higher water demands than VIC. Future analyses showed that climate change impacts on the global water cycle are potentially high especially in the semi

  18. The negative feedback between anthropogenic ozone pollution and enhanced ocean emissions of iodine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuevas, Carlos A.; Prados-Roman, Cristina; Fernandez, Rafael P.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso

    2015-04-01

    Natural emissions of iodine compounds from the oceans efficiently destroy atmospheric ozone reducing its positive radiative forcing effects in the troposphere. Emissions of inorganic iodine have been experimentally shown to depend on the deposition to the oceans of tropospheric ozone, whose concentrations have significantly increased (40%) since 1850 as a result of human activities. In this work a chemistry-climate model is used to quantify the current ocean emissions of inorganic iodine and evaluate the impact that the anthropogenic increase of tropospheric ozone has had on the natural cycle of iodine in the marine environment since pre-industrial times. Our results indicate that the human driven enhancement of tropospheric ozone has doubled the oceanic inorganic iodine emissions following the reaction of ozone with iodide at the sea surface. The consequent build-up of atmospheric iodine, with maximum enhancements of up to 70% with respect to preindustrial times in continental pollution outflow regions, has in turn accelerated the ozone chemical loss over the oceans with strong spatial patterns. We suggest that this ocean-atmosphere interaction represents a negative geochemical feedback loop by which current ocean emissions of iodine act as a natural buffer for ozone pollution and its radiative forcing in the global marine environment. This feedback represents a potentially important link between climate change and tropospheric O3 since the oceanic emissions of iodine are not only linked to surface O3, but also to SST and wind speed and might also be linked to climatically driven changes in the state of the world oceans.

  19. The influence of natural and anthropogenic secondary sources on the glyoxal global distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Vrekoussis, M.; Tsigaridis, K.; Wittrock, F.; Richter, A.; Brühl, C.; Volkamer, R.; Burrows, J. P.; Kanakidou, M.

    2008-01-01

    Glyoxal, the smallest dicarbonyl, which has recently been observed from space, is expected to provide indications on VOC oxidation and secondary aerosol formation in the troposphere. Glyoxal is known to be mostly of natural origin and is produced during biogenic VOC oxidation. However, a number of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, like acetylene and aromatics, have been positively identified as glyoxal precursors. The present study investigates the contribution of pollution emissions to the glyoxal levels by taking into account only the secondary chemical formation of glyoxal from precursors emitted from biogenic, anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. For this purpose, a global 3-dimensional chemistry transport model of the troposphere (TM4) able to simulate the gas phase chemistry coupled with all major aerosol components is used. The model results are compared with satellite observations of glyoxal columns over hot spot areas. According to TM4 model results, the anthropogenic contribution to the glyoxal columns is found to reach 70% in the industrialized areas of the northern hemisphere and up to 20% in the tropics. It is on average three times larger than the secondary production of glyoxal from biomass burning sources. The chemical production of glyoxal is calculated to equal about 56 Tg y-1 with 70% produced from biogenic hydrocarbons oxidation, 17% from acetylene, 11% from aromatic chemistry, and 2% from ethene and propene. Glyoxal is destroyed by reactions mainly with OH radicals (22%) and by photolysis (65%), but it is also removed from the atmosphere through wet (11%) and dry deposition (6%). Secondary organic aerosol potential formation through glyoxal losses on/in aerosols and clouds was neglected here due to the significant uncertainties associated with the underlying chemistry. The global annual mean glyoxal burden and lifetime in the model domain are estimated at 0.02 Tg and 3 h, respectively.

  20. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

    PubMed

    Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

    2016-06-01

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences. PMID:27274046

  1. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions

    PubMed Central

    Boivin, Nicole L.; Zeder, Melinda A.; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M.; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens. A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity—the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences. PMID:27274046

  2. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regions of the world where surface water quality is expected to deteriorate under climate change and anthropogenic developments. Our approach integrates global hydrological-water quality modelling, climate and socio-economic scenarios and relations of water quality with physical and socio-economic drivers.

  3. Using scaling fluctuation analysis to quantify global and regional precipitation and to estimate anthropogenic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, L.; Lovejoy, S.; de Lima, I. P.

    2013-12-01

    A basic problem in hydro-climatology is to measure trends at decadal and longer scales and to distinguish anthropogenic and natural variability in the precipitation record and to quantify both as functions of scale. The fundamental framework for understanding this problem has been clarified using scaling analyses of Haar fluctuations defined by the differences of the averages of the first and second halves of an interval. This technique has shown that at scales beyond about ten days, positive fluctuations in atmospheric variables - including rain - tend to be followed by (partially) cancelling negative ones. The converging regime is called 'macroweather'; however, at long enough time scales - if only from paleodata and because of the existence of ice ages - we know that macroweather gives way to climate variations where on the contrary, fluctuations increase once again with scale. Anthropogenic changes over the last century also increase the low frequency variability so that it is hard to disentangle them from natural variability. However, as long as we are still in the scaling macroweather regime the natural variability is dominant. For precipitation, this is true for scales at least up 20 - 40 yrs: we must search for anthropogenic influences only at longer scales. This explains why the usual approaches estimating precipitation trends using only 10 year segments are statistically significant. Similarly, the usual approach uses precipitation data on grids (e.g. the Global Historical Climate Network, GHCN at 5ox5o, from 1900) estimated from station precipitation series with much higher resolutions. From the space-time scaling properties of precipitation, this leads to a serious mismatch in scales; and can explain the large difference in monthly precipitation fluctuation amplitudes (a factor 2.228) for the GHCN estimates compared to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR, at 2ox2o, since 1871). We establish the global statistical framework of precipitation fluctuations

  4. Fingerprints of anthropogenic and natural variability in global-mean surface temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, J.M.; Zhang, Yuan

    1997-11-01

    This paper presents an analysis designed to detect greenhouse warming by distinguishing between temperature rises induced by increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and those induced by background variability that are present without changes in atmospheric composition. The strategy is based on the surface temperature field. At each observation time, the projection of the anomalous temperature field on the presumed anthropogenic fingerprint is removed in order to obtain a temperature deviation field; i.e., the temperature anomalies in the phase space orthogonal to the anthropogenic fingerprint, which are presumed to be entirely natural. The time series of the expansion coefficients of the fingerprint a(t) is then regressed on this temperature deviation field to identify the axis in the orthogonal phase space along which the variations are most strongly correlated, and an index n(t) of the temporal variations along that axis is generated. The index a(t) is then regressed upon n(t) and the resulting least squares fit is regarded as the component of a(t) that can be ascribed to natural causes. The analysis was performed for monthly global surface temperature anomaly fields for the period 1900-95. Results indicate that two well defined patterns of natural variability contribute to variations in global mean temperature: the synthetic cold ocean-warm land (COWL) pattern and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In domains that include surface air temperature over Eurasia and North America, the COWL pattern tends to be dominant. The ENSO signature emerges as the pattern most strongly linearly correlated with global sea surface temperature and with tropospheric layer-averaged temperatures. 24 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

  6. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  7. Estimation of global and regional precipitation and anthropogenic climate change using scaling fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bussy, Augustin; Lovejoy, Shaun; de Lima, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    A basic problem in hydro-climatology is to measure trends at decadal and longer scales and to distinguish anthropogenic and natural variability in the precipitation record and to quantify both as functions of scale. The fundamental framework for understanding this problem has been clarified using scaling analyses of Haar fluctuations defined by the differences of the averages of the first and second halves of an interval. This technique has shown that at scales beyond about ten days, positive fluctuations in atmospheric variables - including rain - tend to be followed by (partially) cancelling negative ones. The converging regime is called "macroweather"; however, at long enough time scales - if only from paleodata and because of the existence of ice ages - we know that macroweather gives way to climate variations where on the contrary, fluctuations increase once again with scale. Anthropogenic changes over the last century also increase the low frequency variability so that it is hard to disentangle them from natural variability. However, as long as we are still in the scaling macroweather regime the natural variability is dominant. For precipitation, this is true for scales at least up 20 - 40 yrs: we must search for anthropogenic influences only at longer scales. This explains why the usual approaches estimating precipitation trends using only 10 year segments are statistically significant. Similarly, the usual approach uses precipitation data on grids (e.g. the Global Historical Climate Network, GHCN at 5ºx5º, from 1900) estimated from station precipitation series with much higher resolutions. From the space-time scaling properties of precipitation, this leads to a serious mismatch in scales; and can explain the large difference in monthly precipitation fluctuation amplitudes (a factor 2.228) for the GHCN estimates compared to the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR, at 2ºx2º, since 1871). We have recently shown that anthropogenic effects can be estimated by

  8. Evaluation of Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Indirect Effects in the GISS Model III

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; Nenes, A.; Liao, H.; Adams, P. J.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2008-12-01

    In this study the implementation of the aerosol indirect effect in the 23-layer Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model III is described. Explicit dependence on cloud droplet number concentrations (Nc) is introduced in the calculations of cloud optical depths and autoconversion rates in liquid-phase stratiform clouds to account for both first and second indirect effects. To diagnose Nc, correlation with concentrations of aerosol soluble ions is developed separately for each model grid and in each month, to reflect seasonal and spatial variations in aerosol-cloud interactions. Based on estimates of pre-industrial, present-day (year 2000), and future (year 2100) concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sea salt, and organic aerosols from the fully coupled Caltech unified model, corresponding offline, monthly averaged Nc were derived and applied to equilibrium climate simulations. Modeled present-day global distributions of Nc, droplet size, cloud cover, and radiative balance are in good agreement with satellite-retrieved climatology. A global anthropogenic indirect forcing of -1.7 W m-2, with a decrease in mean droplet radius of 0.8 μm, and an increase in total liquid water path of 0.2 g cm-2, from pre-industrial to year 2000 is estimated. Future climate responses to aerosol direct and indirect effects are also analyzed and compared to previous studies that consider chemistry- aerosol-climate coupling, revealing the influences of this coupling on climate predictions.

  9. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-06-01

    Climate change includes not only changes in mean climate but also in weather extremes. For a few prominent heatwaves and heavy precipitation events a human contribution to their occurrence has been demonstrated. Here we apply a similar framework but estimate what fraction of all globally occurring heavy precipitation and hot extremes is attributable to warming. We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 °C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases nonlinearly with further warming. The approach introduced here is robust owing to its global perspective, less sensitive to model biases than alternative methods and informative for mitigation policy, and thereby complementary to single-event attribution. Combined with information on vulnerability and exposure, it serves as a scientific basis for assessment of global risk from extreme weather, the discussion of mitigation targets, and liability considerations.

  10. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  11. Artificial breakwaters as garbage bins: Structural complexity enhances anthropogenic litter accumulation in marine intertidal habitats.

    PubMed

    Aguilera, Moisés A; Broitman, Bernardo R; Thiel, Martin

    2016-07-01

    Coastal urban infrastructures are proliferating across the world, but knowledge about their emergent impacts is still limited. Here, we provide evidence that urban artificial reefs have a high potential to accumulate the diverse forms of litter originating from anthropogenic activities around cities. We test the hypothesis that the structural complexity of urban breakwaters, when compared with adjacent natural rocky intertidal habitats, is a driver of anthropogenic litter accumulation. We determined litter abundances at seven sites (cities) and estimated the structural complexity in both urban breakwaters and adjacent natural habitats from northern to central Chile, spanning a latitudinal gradient of ∼15° (18°S to 33°S). Anthropogenic litter density was significantly higher in coastal breakwaters when compared to natural habitats (∼15.1 items m(-2) on artificial reefs versus 7.4 items m(-2) in natural habitats) at all study sites, a pattern that was temporally persistent. Different litter categories were more abundant on the artificial reefs than in natural habitats, with local human population density and breakwater extension contributing to increase the probabilities of litter occurrence by ∼10%. In addition, structural complexity was about two-fold higher on artificial reefs, with anthropogenic litter density being highest at intermediate levels of structural complexity. Therefore, the spatial structure characteristic of artificial reefs seems to enhance anthropogenic litter accumulation, also leading to higher residence time and degradation potential. Our study highlights the interaction between coastal urban habitat modification by establishment of artificial reefs, and pollution. This emergent phenomenon is an important issue to be considered in future management plans and the engineering of coastal ecosystems. PMID:27149151

  12. The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Klimont, Z.; Smith, Steven J.; Cofala, Janusz

    2013-01-09

    Evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation for recent years. After a strong increase in emissions that peaked about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is a strong spatial variability with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in significant decline in emissions from energy sector and stabilization of Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following agreed reduction of sulfur content of fuel oil. Estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of RCP projections and uncertainty calculated for the year 2005.

  13. The global anthropogenic gallium system: determinants of demand, supply and efficiency improvements.

    PubMed

    Løvik, Amund N; Restrepo, Eliette; Müller, Daniel B

    2015-05-01

    Gallium has been labeled as a critical metal due to rapidly growing consumption, importance for low-carbon technologies such as solid state lighting and photovoltaics, and being produced only as a byproduct of other metals (mainly aluminum). The global system of primary production, manufacturing, use and recycling has not yet been described or quantified in the literature. This prevents predictions of future demand, supply and possibilities for efficiency improvements on a system level. We present a description of the global anthropogenic gallium system and quantify the system using a combination of statistical data and technical parameters. We estimated that gallium was produced from 8 to 21% of alumina plants in 2011. The most important applications of gallium are NdFeB permanent magnets, integrated circuits and GaAs/GaP-based light-emitting diodes, demanding 22-37%, 16-27%, and 11-21% of primary metal production, respectively. GaN-based light-emitting diodes and photovoltaics are less important, both with 2-6%. We estimated that 120-170 tons, corresponding to 40-60% of primary production, ended up in production wastes that were either disposed of or stored. While demand for gallium is expected to rise in the future, our results indicated that it is possible to increase primary production substantially with conventional technology, as well as improve the system-wide material efficiency. PMID:25884251

  14. Simulation of in-stream water quality on global scale under changing climate and anthropogenic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, Anja; Bärlund, Ilona; Punzet, Manuel; Williams, Richard; Teichert, Ellen; Malve, Olli; Voß, Frank

    2010-05-01

    Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide a description of the new continental-scale model of water quality WorldQual and the analysis of model simulations under changed climate and anthropogenic conditions with respect to changes in diffuse and point loading as well as surface water quality. BOD is used as an indicator of the level of organic pollution and its oxygen-depleting potential, and for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. The first application of this new water quality model is to river systems of Europe. The model itself is being developed as part of the EU-funded SCENES Project which has the principal goal of developing new scenarios of the future of freshwater resources in Europe. The aim of the model is to determine chemical fluxes in different pathways combining analysis of water quantity with water quality. Simple equations, consistent with the availability of data on the continental scale, are used to simulate the response of in-stream BOD concentrations to diffuse and anthropogenic point loadings as well as flow dilution. Point sources are divided into manufacturing, domestic and urban loadings, whereas diffuse loadings come from scattered settlements, agricultural input (for instance livestock farming), and also from natural background sources. The model is tested against measured longitudinal gradients and time series data at specific river locations with different loading characteristics like the Thames that is driven by domestic loading and Ebro with relative high share of diffuse loading. With scenario studies the influence of climate and anthropogenic changes on European water resources shall be investigated with the following questions: 1. What percentage of river systems will have

  15. Human threats to sandy beaches: A meta-analysis of ghost crabs illustrates global anthropogenic impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlacher, Thomas A.; Lucrezi, Serena; Connolly, Rod M.; Peterson, Charles H.; Gilby, Ben L.; Maslo, Brooke; Olds, Andrew D.; Walker, Simon J.; Leon, Javier X.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Weston, Michael A.; Turra, Alexander; Hyndes, Glenn A.; Holt, Rebecca A.; Schoeman, David S.

    2016-02-01

    Beach and coastal dune systems are increasingly subjected to a broad range of anthropogenic pressures that on many shorelines require significant conservation and mitigation interventions. But these interventions require reliable data on the severity and frequency of adverse ecological impacts. Such evidence is often obtained by measuring the response of 'indicator species'. Ghost crabs are the largest invertebrates inhabiting tropical and subtropical sandy shores and are frequently used to assess human impacts on ocean beaches. Here we present the first global meta-analysis of these impacts, and analyse the design properties and metrics of studies using ghost-crabs in their assessment. This was complemented by a gap analysis to identify thematic areas of anthropogenic pressures on sandy beach ecosystems that are under-represented in the published literature. Our meta-analysis demonstrates a broad geographic reach, encompassing studies on shores of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the South China Sea. It also reveals what are, arguably, two major limitations: i) the near-universal use of proxies (i.e. burrow counts to estimate abundance) at the cost of directly measuring biological traits and bio-markers in the organism itself; and ii) descriptive or correlative study designs that rarely extend beyond a simple 'compare and contrast approach', and hence fail to identify the mechanistic cause(s) of observed contrasts. Evidence for a historically narrow range of assessed pressures (i.e., chiefly urbanisation, vehicles, beach nourishment, and recreation) is juxtaposed with rich opportunities for the broader integration of ghost crabs as a model taxon in studies of disturbance and impact assessments on ocean beaches. Tangible advances will most likely occur where ghost crabs provide foci for experiments that test specific hypotheses associated with effects of chemical, light and acoustic pollution, as well as the consequences of climate change (e

  16. Role of natural and anthropogenic factors in global and regional climate transformations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovalenko, Vladimir A.; Zherebtsov, Gelii A.

    2003-04-01

    Presented is the evidence for the actual manifestation of solar variability in climatic characteristics of the Prebaikalye. This influence on surface air temperature was quantified. A high degree of correlation was established between the mean power of a solar activity cycle and the surface air temperature in the Prebaikalye, averaged over a solar cycle period. It is shown that the main meaningful air temperature variations in the region for the period 1881-1960 were caused by solar activity. The temperature variation amplitude for that period was 1°C. Since the 1960s until the present, with the influence of solar variability persisting, there has been an obvious forcing of another factor whose role was steadily increasing so that as recently as in the last decade it exceeded the contribution from solar variability. For the period 1960-1997, the temperature rise that was not associated with solar variability, was 1.7°C. This new factor is most likely to be the global variations of the thermal regime of the atmosphere that are caused by the anthropogenic factor. This assumption is in agreement with model calculations, pointing to the fact that the most significant manifestation of a global warming should be expected in inland regions of Eurasia. An analysis of the seasonal variations in ground temperature showed that the variations that are taking place to date are most clearly pronounced in the winter-spring period and are associated with a reduction of the stationary period of the Siberian anticyclone. This suggests that the mechanism responsible for the realization of variability factors of regional climate is the global atmospheric circulation rather than a local change of the energy balance of the atmosphere.

  17. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Horowitz, Hannah M.; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Slemr, Franz; St. Louis, Vincent L.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2016-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y−1). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. PMID:26729866

  18. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J; Horowitz, Hannah M; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M; Krabbenhoft, David P; Slemr, Franz; St Louis, Vincent L; Sunderland, Elsie M

    2016-01-19

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. PMID:26729866

  19. Natural and Anthropogenic Controls over Global Terrestrial N2O Emission Growth at a Century-Long Time Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Kamaljit, K.; Zhang, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 20% relative to pre-industrial level. It has attracted growing attention since N2O has long life time and radiative forcing 265 times higher than CO2 at 100-year time horizon. Global N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystem is among the most important contributors to the increase of atmospheric N2O. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, less intensive studies have been performed in assessing the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial N2O emission and attributing its changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances across the globe. Here we integrated gridded time-series data of climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) to a process-based land ecosystem model, DLEM, for answering the above questions. During 1900-2010, the inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes have been examined. Through this, we distinguished and quantified the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities to N2O emission growth at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. The impacts of climate variability, and increasing nitrogen input, particularly nitrogen fertilizer use along with enhanced food production, have been paid special attention. Hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission are identified in this study. It provides clue for scientific community and policy makers to develop potential management strategies for mitigating atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  20. Model sensitivity to MACC anthropogenic and biogenic emissions: Global simulations and evaluation for reactive gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, O.; Schultz, M. G.; Bouarar, I.; Clark, H.; Katragkou, E.; Leitao, J.; Heil, A.

    2012-04-01

    The EU projects MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate, 2009-2011) and MACC-II (2011-2014) prepare for the operational Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) atmospheric core service which is envisaged to start in 2014. Besides global service lines for greenhouse gases and aerosols, emphasis is put also on global monitoring and forecasting of reactive gases. The MACC reanalysis and forecast simulations benefit from the multi-sensor approach for data assimilation of ozone, CO and NO2 observations. Currently the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is coupled to the chemical transport model MOZART-3 to represent in detail the chemical conversion as well as major source and sink processes. A global emission inventory for reactive gases has been developed as part of the MACC project. Based upon the ACCMIP emissions for the year 2000 these emissions are extrapolated for years after 2000 with the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario and extended for VOCs and several other species. This inventory composes the MACCity anthropogenic emission inventory (Granier et al. 2011). During the MACC project it became apparent that using the MACCity emissions in reanalysis simulations for recent years led to an underestimation of CO concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere when compared to independent observations. In order to give insight into the reasons for this behavior we conducted MOZART offline simulations for the year 2008 to test the sensitivity of the chemical transport model to the varying emissions. Therefore we ran MOZART with different sets of emissions: 1. MACCity emissions, 2. The GEMS/RETRO emission inventory, 3. MACCity emissions, but with increased traffic CO emissions. While using the emission inventory developed in the RETRO and GEMS projects gives quite reasonable tropospheric concentrations for the key species, the MACCity emissions are too low

  1. Global methane emissions from minor anthropogenic sources and biofuel combustion in residential stoves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccot, Stephen D.; Beck, Lee; Srinivasan, Sridhar; Kersteter, Sharon L.

    1996-10-01

    Most global methane (CH4) budgets have failed to include emissions from a diverse group of minor anthropogenic sources. Individually, these minor sources emit small quantities of CH4, but collectively, their contributions to the budget may be significant. In this paper, CH4 emissions are estimated for a wide variety of individual minor emissions sources on a country-specific basis. Emissions from biomass combustion in the residential sector are also examined. The minor sources examined include fuel combustion in furnaces, vehicles, aircraft, ship, rail systems, industrial waste treatment and combustion processes, various industrial manufacturing processes (e.g., chemical manufacturing), on-site residential waste burning, forest wildfires, and prescribed burning activities, oil refining, and the storage/distribution of oil-derived products, coke production, and charcoal production. Country-specific emissions associated with residential wood, charcoal, and dung combustion are also estimated. The total annual CH4 emissions from all sources examined here are estimated to be about 40 Tg. Almost half of this total is due to residential fossil fuel and biofuels combustion.

  2. Simulation Of Anthropogenic Climate Change Over The Mediterranean Region Using A Global Variable Resolution Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibelin, A. L.; Déqué, M.

    Regional anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region has been sim- ulated by the global spectral AGCM ARPEGE-Climat developed by Météo-France- CNRM. The variable resolution version of the model is used with a maximum horizontal reso- lution of 0.5 over the Mediterranean Sea. Two 30-year time-slice experiments, corre- sponding to 1960-1989 and 2070-2099, have been performed. Simulations are driven by IPCC-B2 scenario radiative forcing. Sea surface temperatures are prescribed from monthly observations for the present climate simulation, and from a blend of observa- tions and coupled simulations for the scenario. Present climate simulation has been compared with observations to validate the model. Then the impact on simulated temperature, precipitation and soil moisture to an in- crease of greenhouse gases concentrations has been analysed. The robustness of the response has been verified by comparing the forced model response to that of a cou- pled lower resolution simulation.

  3. Phosphorus accumulates faster than nitrogen globally in freshwater ecosystems under anthropogenic impacts.

    PubMed

    Yan, Zhengbing; Han, Wenxuan; Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Elser, James J; Du, Enzai; Reich, Peter B; Fang, Jingyun

    2016-10-01

    Combined effects of cumulative nutrient inputs and biogeochemical processes that occur in freshwater under anthropogenic eutrophication could lead to myriad shifts in nitrogen (N):phosphorus (P) stoichiometry in global freshwater ecosystems, but this is not yet well-assessed. Here we evaluated the characteristics of N and P stoichiometries in bodies of freshwater and their herbaceous macrophytes across human-impact levels, regions and periods. Freshwater and its macrophytes had higher N and P concentrations and lower N : P ratios in heavily than lightly human-impacted environments, further evidenced by spatiotemporal comparisons across eutrophication gradients. N and P concentrations in freshwater ecosystems were positively correlated and N : P was negatively correlated with population density in China. These results indicate a faster accumulation of P than N in human-impacted freshwater ecosystems, which could have large effects on the trophic webs and biogeochemical cycles of estuaries and coastal areas by freshwater loadings, and reinforce the importance of rehabilitating these ecosystems. PMID:27501082

  4. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  5. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  6. Mixing of Dust and NH3 Observed Globally over Anthropogenic Dust Sources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ginoux, P.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.-F.; Dubovik, O.; Hsu, N. C.; Van Damme, M.

    2012-01-01

    The global distribution of dust column burden derived from MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products is compared to NH3 column burden retrieved from IASI infrared spectra. We found similarities in their spatial distributions, in particular their hot spots are often collocated over croplands and to a lesser extent pastures. Globally, we found 22% of dust burden collocated with NH3, with only 1% difference between land-use databases. This confirms the importance of anthropogenic dust from agriculture. Regionally, the Indian subcontinent has the highest amount of dust mixed with NH3 (26 %), mostly over cropland and during the pre-monsoon season. North Africa represents 50% of total dust burden but accounts for only 4% of mixed dust, which is found over croplands and pastures in Sahel and the coastal region of the Mediterranean. In order to evaluate the radiative effect of this mixing on dust optical properties, we derive the mass extinction efficiency for various mixtures of dust and NH3, using AERONET sunphotometers data. We found that for dusty days the coarse mode mass extinction efficiency decreases from 0.62 to 0.48 square meters per gram as NH3 burden increases from 0 to 40 milligrams per square meter. The fine mode extinction efficiency, ranging from 4 to 16 square mters per gram, does not appear to depend on NH3 concentration or relative humidity but rather on mineralogical composition and mixing with other aerosols. Our results imply that a significant amount of dust is already mixed with ammonium salt before its long range transport. This in turn will affect dust lifetime, and its interactions with radiation and cloud properties

  7. Impact of anthropogenic emissions from major population centers on global and regional aerosol budgets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, Daniel; Tost, Holger; Lawrence, Mark

    2013-04-01

    In urban areas, in particular in major population centers (MPCs), anthropogenic pollutants can dominate over natural emissions and cause severe air quality problems. We used emission annihilation scenario simulations in the atmospheric chemistry global circulation model EMAC to study the individual and cumulative impact of four major aerosol species from MPCs on the global and regional aerosol budgets. Black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulphur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were used to represent emissions of primary aerosols and of precursors gases for secondary aerosols sulphate and nitrate, respectively. Moreover, feedbacks resulting from changed emissions on other atmospheric constituents were assessed and the linearity in the burden changes due to the emission changes was discussed. Aerosol sulphate showed the strongest decrease in the global budget and also the most widespread changes in the tropospheric column density, whereas the smallest global decrease with only local changes was found for particulate organic matter. The maximum reduction was found around the emission sources and in downwind regions. The primary emitted aerosols showed almost no feedback on other species. In contrast, many gas-aerosol equilibria were affected when the SO2 and NOx emissions were reduced. In the case with the reduced MPC-NOx emissions, many species participating in the NOx-ozone (O3) chemistry showed a response in their concentrations. In particular, ozone changed differently in extra-tropical and tropical cities, which is in accordance with findings of Butler and Lawrence (2009). Moreover, the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere was changed. The hydroxyl radical concentration changed similarly to O3, which lead to an increase in the tropospheric carbon monoxide concentration and to locally greater SO2 concentrations. Changes in the emissions for black carbon, particulate organic matter, and SO2 resulted in almost linear responses of the corresponding

  8. Weekly cycles of global fires—Associations with religion, wealth and culture, and insights into anthropogenic influences on global climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian; Tapper, Nigel

    2015-11-01

    One approach to quantifying anthropogenic influences on the environment and the consequences of those is to examine weekly cycles (WCs). No long-term natural process occurs on a WC so any such signal can be considered anthropogenic. There is much ongoing scientific debate as to whether regional-scale WCs exist above the statistical noise level, with most significant studies claiming that anthropogenic aerosols and their interaction with solar radiation and clouds (direct/indirect effect) is the controlling factor. A major source of anthropogenic aerosol, underrepresented in the literature, is active fire (AF) from anthropogenic burning for land clearance/management. WCs in AF have not been analyzed heretofore, and these can provide a mechanism for observed regional-scale WCs in several meteorological variables. We show that WCs in AFs are highly pronounced for many parts of the world, strongly influenced by the working week and particularly the day(s) of rest, associated with religious practices.

  9. An estimate of monthly global emissions of anthropogenic CO2: Impact on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson, D; Mills, R; Gregg, J; Blasing, T J; Hoffman, F; Andres, Robert Joseph; Devries, M; Zhu, Z; Kawa, S

    2008-01-01

    Monthly estimates of the global emissions of anthropogenic CO2 are presented. Approximating the seasonal CO2 emission cycle using a 2-harmonic Fourier series with coefficients as a function of latitude, the annual fluxes are decomposed into monthly flux estimates based on data for the United States and applied globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are then used to model atmospheric CO2 concentrations using meteorological fields from the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. We find that the use of monthly resolved fluxes makes a significant difference in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in and near those regions where anthropogenic CO2 is released to the atmosphere. Local variations of 2-6 ppmv CO2 in the seasonal cycle amplitude are simulated; larger variations would be expected if smaller source-receptor distances could be more precisely specified using a more refined spatial resolution. We also find that in the midlatitudes near the sources, synoptic scale atmospheric circulations are important in the winter and that boundary layer venting and diurnal rectifier effects are more important in the summer. These findings have implications for inverse-modeling efforts that attempt to estimate surface source/sink regions especially when the surface sinks are colocated with regions of strong anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

  10. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  11. Polychaete Richness and Abundance Enhanced in Anthropogenically Modified Estuaries Despite High Concentrations of Toxic Contaminants

    PubMed Central

    Dafforn, Katherine A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.; Simpson, Stuart L.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Hutchings, Pat A.; Clark, Graeme F.; Knott, Nathan A.; Doblin, Martina A.; Johnston, Emma L.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple chemical and physical stressors, but distinguishing anthropogenic impacts from other environmental drivers remains challenging. Rarely are multiple stressors investigated in replicated studies over large spatial scales (>1000 kms) or supported with manipulations that are necessary to interpret ecological patterns. We measured the composition of sediment infaunal communities in relation to anthropogenic and natural stressors at multiple sites within seven estuaries. We observed increases in the richness and abundance of polychaete worms in heavily modified estuaries with severe metal contamination, but no changes in the diversity or abundance of other taxa. Estuaries in which toxic contaminants were elevated also showed evidence of organic enrichment. We hypothesised that the observed response of polychaetes was not a ‘positive’ response to toxic contamination or a reduction in biotic competition, but due to high levels of nutrients in heavily modified estuaries driving productivity in the water column and enriching the sediment over large spatial scales. We deployed defaunated field-collected sediments from the surveyed estuaries in a small scale experiment, but observed no effects of sediment characteristics (toxic or enriching). Furthermore, invertebrate recruitment instead reflected the low diversity and abundance observed during field surveys of this relatively ‘pristine’ estuary. This suggests that differences observed in the survey are not a direct consequence of sediment characteristics (even severe metal contamination) but are related to parameters that covary with estuary modification such as enhanced productivity from nutrient inputs and the diversity of the local species pool. This has implications for the interpretation of diversity measures in large-scale monitoring studies in which the observed patterns may be strongly influenced by many factors that covary with anthropogenic

  12. The Runaway Greenhouse - Towards a Quantitative Assessment of the Risk from Anthropogenic Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldblatt, C.

    2011-12-01

    The most extreme climate change that Earth could face is the "Runaway Greenhouse", which would cause extreme heating and make Earth's surface inhospitable to life. Could anthropogenic global change cause a runaway greenhouse, as has recently been suggested [J. Hansen, 'Storms of my Grandchildren', 2009]? Here I review the theory of the runaway greenhouse and present new, high accuracy line-by-line, calculations of the runaway greenhouse limits. It is a common misconception that the runaway greenhouse is simply a stronger version of the familiar water vapour positive feedback on climate. In fact, different physics characterises the runaway greenhouse: a warm and water vapour saturated atmosphere would be optically thick in the thermal infra-red region, and consequently there would be a fixed upper limit on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). In the classical theory originating from the planetary sciences, the runaway greenhouse is triggered when the net energy received from the evolving sun exceeds the limit on OLR (this happened to Venus in the past). The OLR limit is insensitive to carbon dioxide concentrations. Our new calculations put the OLR limit at 285Wm-2, less than the classical value of 310Wm-2 [J. Kasting, Icarus, 74, 472-494, 1988] but still in excess of the net solar absorption of 240Wm-2. This suggests that a runaway greenhouse is not likely. However, the limit on OLR is less than the total energy incident on Earth, 342Wm-2, so a reduction in planetary albedo could in fact trigger a runaway greenhouse. Our new calculations indicate that a hot moist atmosphere will absorb much more incoming solar radiation than previously thought, reducing albedo. How clouds will change is poorly understood, but the potential exists for a further reduction in albedo. Thus, whilst human actions causing a true runaway greenhouse seems unlikely, it cannot be entirely ruled out.

  13. Going Global: Utilizing Instructional Geocaching to Enhance Students' Global Competency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Szolosi, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Within contemporary society, technology has taken on an integral role in the way we come to know and understand the world. In recognition of that reality, an increasing number of educators have begun to utilize an emerging technology resource, GPS devices, and a GPS-based activity, geocaching, to help enhance students' global competency. The…

  14. Why do anthropogenic global warming skeptics have poorer scientific credentials than their opponents?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, N. L.

    2010-12-01

    A paper published in PNAS (1) analyzed the scientific credentials of two groups of activist scientists. The unconvinced by the evidence group included ~500 scientists and technologists who signed various public documents protesting against various aspects of programs to prevent or mitigate anthropogenic global warming. The convinced by the evidence group (~1200 persons) signed public appeals to implement programs to prevent or mitigate AGW. Scientific credentials were measured by publications and citations. The unspoken message of the paper is that we should have confidence in the canonical program of climate change as outlined by, for example, the IPCC, because those who support the program have better scientific credentials than those that don’t. One of the authors of the paper, James Prall, made available on his website lists of several thousand persons, mostly scientists and technologists, who are in one group or the other. The lists include considerable detail, such as publications, citations and education that relates to scientific qualifications. Using Prall’s lists and relevant anecdotal statements by prominent advocates on both sides of the issue I suggest an alternate reason for the disparity in scientific credentials. The PNAS paper in testing scientific credentials counted the number of publications and citations in the area of climate science. There is a certain circularity in using such a test because persons who are professionally employed as climate scientists will naturally have many publications and citations - that is their professional goal. Professional employment in climate science implies adherence to group standards and to some extent beliefs. To give an analogy, if you are a professional freudian psychoanalyst you can’t say that Freud is a crackpot and retain your professional standing. I’m not saying that climate scientists are crackpots, but that there is surely some sort of shared belief and value system whether or not it is

  15. Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2005-01-01

    We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os

  16. Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990-2030

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report provides information on historical and projected estimates of emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources. It includes over 20 individual source categories from the energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste sectors. It covers 92 countr...

  17. A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers

    PubMed Central

    Aronson, Myla F. J.; La Sorte, Frank A.; Nilon, Charles H.; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A.; Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Warren, Paige S.; Williams, Nicholas S. G.; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; MacGregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pyšek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km2) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education. PMID:24523278

  18. A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers.

    PubMed

    Aronson, Myla F J; La Sorte, Frank A; Nilon, Charles H; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Warren, Paige S; Williams, Nicholas S G; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; Macgregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pysek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

    2014-04-01

    Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km(2)) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education. PMID:24523278

  19. The Impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming on the Wind Power Resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Barrie, D.

    2009-12-01

    The growing need for low-carbon emitting electricity sources has resulted in rapid growth in the wind power industry. The size and steadiness of the offshore wind resource has attracted growing investment in the planning of offshore wind turbine installations. Decisions about the location and character of wind farms should be made with an eye not only to present but also future wind resource, which may change as increasing carbon dioxide forces reductions in the poleward temperature gradient, and thus potentially in the mean tropospheric westerly winds. Analysis of the IPCC AR4 SRESa1b model projections shows a consistent pattern of enhanced wind power resource over the U.S. south central plains, and reduced wind power over the Atlantic. Over the crucial near-shore region, the multi-model ensemble mean shows reduced winds, but there is significant model disagreement here. In this presentation we diagnose the relative roles of mass rearrangement and momentum flux changes in driving surface wind changes in response to global warming. In addition, results from high-resolution downscaled projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) are analyzed. Preliminary results show agreement with the large scale model projections at large scale. However, regional details show important deviations from the large scale patterns, including enhanced wind resource in the Gulf of Maine, and off the Delmarva Penninsula. Multimodel ensemble estimate of change in wind power resource (percentage change in monthly mean of cube of surface wind) from the decade 1990-2000 to the decade 2090-2100, across seven of the IPCC AR4 SRESA1B models runs (BCCR, CNRM, CSIRO, GFDL, MIROC (medium resolution), ECHAM2, and MRI). Models chosen are those which provided daily surface wind data on the WCRP CMIP3 data archive. Colors in indicate the mean percentage increase, while thatching indicates that this mean change exceeds the standard deviation among the model

  20. A GLOBAL INVENTORY OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of an effort to assess the potential impacts associated with global climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development is supporting global atmospheric chemistry research by developing global scale estimates of volatile organic c...

  1. Anthropogenic Water Augmentation in Major American River Basins through Cloud Seeding to Enhance Snowpack

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, D.; Brilly, M.

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid depletions of glaciers and intense droughts throughout the world have created a need to reexamine modern water augmentation technologies for enhancing snowpack in mountainous regions. Today's reliance on clean efficient hydroelectric power in the Alps from France to Hungary poses a critical need for sustainable snow packs and high elevation water supplies through out the year. Hence, the need to make natural cloud systems more efficient precipitators during the cold season through anthropogenic weather modification techniques. The Bureau of Reclamation, US Department of the Interior, has spent over 39M in research from 1963 to 1990 to develop the scientific basis for snowpack augmentation in the headwaters of the Colorado, American, and Columbia River Basins in the western United States, and through USAID in Morocco. This paper presents a brief summary of the research findings and shows that even during drought conditions potential exists for significant, cost-effective enhancement of water supplies. Examples of ground based propane and AgI seeding generators, cloud physics studies of supercooled cloud droplets and ice crystal characteristics that indicate seeding potential will be shown. Hypothetical analyses of seeding potential in 17 western states from Montana to California will be presented based on observed SNOTEL snow water equivalent measurements, elevation and observed winter precipitation. Early studies indicated from 5 to 20% increases in snow pack were possible, if winter storm systems were seeded effectively. If this potential was realized in drought conditions observed in 2003, over 1.08 million acre feet (1.33 x 10x9 m3) of additional water could be captured by seeding efficiently and effectively in just 10 storms. Results from recent projects sponsored by the National Science Foundation, NOAA, and the States of Wyoming, Utah and Nevada, and conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research will be discussed briefly. Examples of

  2. Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-09-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1°) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  3. Global anthropogenic aerosol effects on convective clouds in ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, U.

    2007-10-01

    Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics in many ways. They act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei and may have an influence on the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate aerosol effects on convective clouds by extending the double moment cloud microphysics scheme developed for stratiform clouds to convective clouds in the ECHAM5 general circulation model. This increases the liquid water path in the tropics and reduces the sensitivity of the liquid water path with increasing aerosol optical depth in better agreement with observations and large-eddy simulation studies. In simulations in which greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions are increased since pre-industrial times, accounting for microphysics in convective clouds matches most closely the observed increase in precipitation. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect since pre-industrial time is slightly reduced from -1.6 to -1.9 W m-2 when microphysics are only included in stratiform clouds to -1.5 W m-2 when microphysics are included both in stratiform and convective clouds.

  4. Vegetation sensitivity to global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in a topographically complex region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diffenbaugh, N.S.; Sloan, L.C.; Snyder, M.A.; Bell, J.L.; Kaplan, J.; Shafer, S.L.; Bartlein, P.J.

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may affect vegetation distribution both directly through changes in photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, and indirectly through CO2-induced climate change. Using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4) driven by a regional climate model (RegCM2.5), we tested the sensitivity of vegetation in the western United States, a topographically complex region, to the direct, indirect, and combined effects of doubled preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Those sensitivities were quantified using the kappa statistic. Simulated vegetation in the western United States was sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with woody biome types replacing less woody types throughout the domain. The simulated vegetation was also sensitive to climatic effects, particularly at high elevations, due to both warming throughout the domain and decreased precipitation in key mountain regions such as the Sierra Nevada of California and the Cascade and Blue Mountains of Oregon. Significantly, when the direct effects of CO2 on vegetation were tested in combination with the indirect effects of CO2-induced climate change, new vegetation patterns were created that were not seen in either of the individual cases. This result indicates that climatic and nonclimatic effects must be considered in tandem when assessing the potential impacts of elevated CO2 levels.

  5. Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from a Global Land Surface Model Simulation with the Anthropogenic Impacts on Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, P. J.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Koirala, S.

    2013-12-01

    Among global water cycle components, Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is one of the most difficult to estimate. In this study, basin-scale regional TWS variations simulated by a global-scale land surface model, after validating with GRACE data and observed streamflow, are used to investigate the dominant TWS components as well as the interactions among TWS components over some largest river basins. The analysis is based on an integrated water resources assessment modelling framework developed by incorporating human impact schemes (i.e., reservoir operation, irrigation, withdrawal, groundwater pumping, and environmental flow requirements) into a land surface model - the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). MATSIRO simulates the majority of land hydrologic processes on a physical basis at the global 1° × 1° resolution. The terrestrial water storage (TWS) simulated consists of soil moisture, groundwater, river water, snow and ice, and the human impact components such as reservoir storage. The effects of irrigation and groundwater pumping on TWS variations are also considered in certain regions where their impacts are known to be significant (e.g. The High Plains Aquifer, US). Moreover, a comparison on the TWS components is made with the MATSIRO simulation without considering human impact. The difference between them is a direct measure on the extent to which human anthropogenic impacts affect regional hydrology.

  6. Global Genetic Differentiation in a Cosmopolitan Pest of Stored Beans: Effects of Geography, Host-Plant Usage and Anthropogenic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Tuda, Midori; Kagoshima, Kumiko; Toquenaga, Yukihiko; Arnqvist, Göran

    2014-01-01

    Genetic differentiation can be promoted allopatrically by geographic isolation of populations due to limited dispersal ability and diversification over time or sympatrically through, for example, host-race formation. In crop pests, the trading of crops across the world can lead to intermixing of genetically distinct pest populations. However, our understanding of the importance of allopatric and sympatric genetic differentiation in the face of anthropogenic genetic intermixing is limited. Here, we examined global sequence variation in two mitochondrial and one nuclear genes in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus that uses different legumes as hosts. We analyzed 180 samples from 42 populations of this stored bean pest from tropical and subtropical continents and archipelagos: Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, Oceania and South America. For the mitochondrial genes, there was weak but significant genetic differentiation across continents/archipelagos. Further, we found pronounced differentiation among subregions within continents/archipelagos both globally and within Africa but not within Asia. We suggest that multiple introductions into Asia and subsequent intermixing within Asia have generated this pattern. The isolation by distance hypothesis was supported globally (with or without continents controlled) but not when host species was restricted to cowpeas Vigna unguiculata, the ancestral host of C. maculatus. We also document significant among-host differentiation both globally and within Asia, but not within Africa. We failed to reject a scenario of a constant population size in the recent past combined with selective neutrality for the mitochondrial genes. We conclude that mitochondrial DNA differentiation is primarily due to geographic isolation within Africa and to multiple invasions by different alleles, followed by host shifts, within Asia. The weak inter-continental differentiation is most likely due to frequent inter-continental gene

  7. Global genetic differentiation in a cosmopolitan pest of stored beans: effects of geography, host-plant usage and anthropogenic factors.

    PubMed

    Tuda, Midori; Kagoshima, Kumiko; Toquenaga, Yukihiko; Arnqvist, Göran

    2014-01-01

    Genetic differentiation can be promoted allopatrically by geographic isolation of populations due to limited dispersal ability and diversification over time or sympatrically through, for example, host-race formation. In crop pests, the trading of crops across the world can lead to intermixing of genetically distinct pest populations. However, our understanding of the importance of allopatric and sympatric genetic differentiation in the face of anthropogenic genetic intermixing is limited. Here, we examined global sequence variation in two mitochondrial and one nuclear genes in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus that uses different legumes as hosts. We analyzed 180 samples from 42 populations of this stored bean pest from tropical and subtropical continents and archipelagos: Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, Oceania and South America. For the mitochondrial genes, there was weak but significant genetic differentiation across continents/archipelagos. Further, we found pronounced differentiation among subregions within continents/archipelagos both globally and within Africa but not within Asia. We suggest that multiple introductions into Asia and subsequent intermixing within Asia have generated this pattern. The isolation by distance hypothesis was supported globally (with or without continents controlled) but not when host species was restricted to cowpeas Vigna unguiculata, the ancestral host of C. maculatus. We also document significant among-host differentiation both globally and within Asia, but not within Africa. We failed to reject a scenario of a constant population size in the recent past combined with selective neutrality for the mitochondrial genes. We conclude that mitochondrial DNA differentiation is primarily due to geographic isolation within Africa and to multiple invasions by different alleles, followed by host shifts, within Asia. The weak inter-continental differentiation is most likely due to frequent inter-continental gene

  8. Anthropogenic and natural disturbances of carbon, nitrogen and water cycles and their global effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, H.; Melillo, J.; Virji, H.; Fu, C.; Dickinson, R.; Running, S.; Liu, J.; Wang, Q.; Reilly, J.

    2006-05-01

    Monsoon Asia includes the Indian sub-continent, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Monsoon Asia is home to more than one-half of the world population, but the total land area in this region is only about 16% of earth's land surface. This region is covered by a range of ecosystems from tropical forests in Southeast Asia to boreal forests in the northern Asia, and from temperate forests in Eastern Asia to deserts in western Asia and tundra in the Himalayan Mountains. These ecosystems account for about one fourth of the potential global terrestrial net primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems are being affected by a complex set of multiple human-induced stresses including air pollution and land transformation. The unprecedented combination of economic and population growth has led to a dramatic land transformation and air pollution across monsoon Asia. The large-scale land transformation and air pollution have important implications for the cycles of carbon, nitrogen and water at regional and global scales. Clearly, monsoon Asia is of critical importance to the understanding of how changing climates and human impacts interact to influence the structure and functioning of ecosystems and the biosphere. In this study, we have reviewed recent advances in the understanding of human-induced changes in biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in Monsoon Asia, including the human-monsoon interactions and the linkage of Asian monsoon to global climate. Finally we have discussed gaps and limitations in existing information that need to be investigated in the future to improve our understanding of human/nature dynamics in monsoon Asia and its linkage to the Earth system.

  9. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land-cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land-use harmonization and radiative kernels

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Widespread anthropogenic land-cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion have been partially offset if not outweigh...

  10. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions.

    PubMed

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E; Olivier, Jos G J; Guizzardi, Diego; Maas, Rob; Dentener, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1,287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg(0)) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg(2+)) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg(0), has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg(0) emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1°×0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The model can generally

  11. Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milliman, John D.; Farnsworth, K.L.; Jones, P.D.; Xu, K.H.; Smith, L.C.

    2008-01-01

    During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 ?? 103??km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric-oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these "normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these "excess" rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Anthropogenic osmium in rain and snow reveals global-scale atmospheric contamination

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Cynthia; Sedwick, Peter N.; Sharma, Mukul

    2009-01-01

    Osmium is one of the rarer elements in seawater, with typical concentration of ≈10 × 10−15 g g−1 (5.3 × 10−14 mol kg−1). The osmium isotope composition (187Os/188Os ratio) of deep oceans is 1.05, reflecting a balance between inputs from continental crust (≈1.3) and mantle/cosmic dust (≈0.13). Here, we show that the 187Os/188Os ratios measured in rain and snow collected around the world range from 0.16 to 0.48, much lower than expected (>1), but similar to the isotope composition of ores (≈0.2) that are processed to extract platinum and other metals to be used primarily in automobile catalytic converters. Present-day surface seawater has a lower 187Os/188Os ratio (≈0.95) than deep waters, suggesting that human activities have altered the isotope composition of the world's oceans and impacted the global geochemical cycle of osmium. The contamination of the surface ocean is particularly remarkable given that osmium has few industrial uses. The pollution may increase with growing demand for platinum-based catalysts. PMID:19416862

  13. Enhancing Polyhedral Relaxations for Global Optimization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bao, Xiaowei

    2009-01-01

    During the last decade, global optimization has attracted a lot of attention due to the increased practical need for obtaining global solutions and the success in solving many global optimization problems that were previously considered intractable. In general, the central question of global optimization is to find an optimal solution to a given…

  14. Anthropogenic impacts on continental margins: New frontiers and engagement arena for global sustainability research and action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, K. K.; Glavovic, B.; Limburg, K.; Emeis, K. C.; Thomas, H.; Kremer, H.; Avril, B.; Zhang, J.; Mulholland, M. R.; Glaser, M.; Swaney, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    There is an urgent need to design and implement transformative governance strategies that safeguard Earth's life-support systems essential for long-term human well-being. From a series of meetings of the Continental Margins Working Group co-sponsored by IMBER and LOICZ of IGBP, we conclude that the greatest urgency exists at the ocean-land interface - the continental margins or the Margin - which extends from coastlands over continental shelves and slopes bordering the deep ocean. The Margin is enduring quadruple squeeze from (i) Population growth and rising demands for resources; (ii) Ecosystem degradation and loss; (iii) Rising CO2, climate change and alteration of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems; and (iv) Rapid and irreversible changes in social-ecological systems. Some areas of the Margin that are subject to the greatest pressures (e.g. the Arctic) are also those for which knowledge of fundamental processes remains most limited. Aside from improving our basic understanding of the nature and variability of the Margin, priority issues include: (i) investment reform to prevent lethal but profitable activities; (ii) risk reduction; and (iii) jurisdiction, equity and fiscal responsibility. However, governance deficits or mismatches are particularly pronounced at the ocean-edge of the Margin and the prevailing Law of the Sea is incapable of resolving these challenges. The "gold rush" of accelerating demands for space and resources, and variability in how this domain is regulated, move the Margin to the forefront of global sustainability research and action. We outline a research strategy in 3 engagement arenas: (a) knowledge and understanding of dynamic Margin processes; (b) development, innovation and risk at the Margin; and (c) governance for sustainability on the Margin. The goals are (1) to better understand Margin social-ecological systems, including their physical and biogeochemical components; (2) to develop practical guidance for sustainable development

  15. Central Asian supra-glacier snow melt enhanced by anthropogenic black carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmale, Julia; Flanner, Mark; Kang, Shichang; Sprenger, Michael; Farinotti, Daniel; Zhang, Qianggong; Guo, Junming; Li, Yang; Lawrence, Mark; Schwikowski, Margit

    2016-04-01

    In Central Asia, more than 60 % of the population depends on water stored in glaciers and mountain snow. Densely populated areas near lower-lying mountain ranges are particularly vulnerable and a recent study showed that the region might lose 50 % of its glacier mass by 2050. While temperature, precipitation and dynamic processes are key drivers of glacial change, deposition of light absorbing impurities such as mineral dust and black carbon can lead to accelerated melting through surface albedo reduction. Here, we discuss the origin of deposited mineral dust and black carbon and their impacts on albedo change and snow melt. 218 snow samples were taken on 4 glaciers, Abramov (Pamir), Suek, Glacier No. 354 and Golubin (Tien Shan), representing deposition between summer 2012 and 2014. They were analyzed for elemental carbon, mineral dust and iron among other parameters. We find the elemental carbon concentration to be at the higher end of the range reported for neighboring mountain ranges between 70 and 502 ng g-1 (interquartile range). To investigate the origin of the snow impurities, we used a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, LAGRANTO. Back trajectory ensembles of 40 members with varied starting points to capture the meteorological spread were released every 6 hours for the covered period at all sites. "Footprints" were calculated and combined with emission inventories to estimate the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural BC to deposited aerosol on the glaciers. We find that more than 94 % of BC is of anthropogenic origin and the major source region is Central Asia followed by the Middle East. Further exploring the implications of mineral dust and BC deposition, we calculate the snow albedo reduction with the Snow-Ice-Aerosol-Radiative model (SNICAR). Even though mineral dust concentrations were up to a factor of 50 higher than BC concentrations, BC dominates the albedo reduction. Using these results we calculate the snow melt induced by

  16. The Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Global and Regional Climate in the Preindustrial Holocene: A Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, J. O.

    2014-12-01

    The recent development of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) scenarios that cover all or part of the preindustrial Holocene (11,700 BP to ~AD 1850) has led to a number of modelling studies on the impacts of land cover change on climate, using both GCMs and regional climate models. Because most ALCC scenarios arrive at similar estimates of anthropogenic deforestation by the late preindustrial, most models agree that the net biogeophysical effect of ALCC by AD 1850 is regional cooling at mid- to high-latitudes and warming and drying over the tropics and subtropics. In particular, tropical deforestation appears to lead to local amplification of externally forced drought cycles, e.g., from ENSO. The spatial extent of these climate changes varies between models because the choice of ALCC scenario leads to large differences in the initial forcing. Those model studies that considered biogeochemical feedbacks show that the importance of preindustrial CO2 emissions ranges from being insignificant to larger than the global biogeophysical feedback, depending on assumptions made about potential natural atmospheric CO2 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. While the net magnitude of deforestation is similar among ALCC scenarios at AD 1850, the timing of deforestation varies widely, which, in addition to affecting the inferred importance of biogeochemical feedbacks, leads to large differences in the estimated importance of ALCC on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed on Europe and the Mediterranean representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire or in Mesoamerica for the Classic Maya period show large differences in the estimated importance of the biogeophysical feedback to regional climate depending on the ALCC scenario used. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the

  17. Enhancing Student Collaboration in Global Virtual Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kohut, Gary F.

    2012-01-01

    With the growth in the global economy and the rapid development of communication and information technologies, global virtual teams are quickly becoming the norm in the workplace. Research indicates, however, that many students have little or no experience working in such teams. Students who learn through these experiences benefit from higher task…

  18. Enhancing Global Understanding: A Call for Cooperation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naylor, David T.

    Social studies education will improve if educators favoring global education and law-related education replace counterproductive competition with mutual respect and cooperation. As two of the many curricular approaches clamoring for a just share of elementary and secondary school social studies programs, global education and law-related education…

  19. Anthropogenic Environments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Aerosols or airborne dust can originate from sources unrelated to anthropogenic activity but may also be initiated or exacerbated by anthropogenic actions. Anthropogenic dust refers to dust activity (emission and suppression) that is present due to human activity. Wind erosion in the U.S. is a sign...

  20. Influence of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on ozone, carbon monoxide and black carbon at the Mt. Cimone GAW-WMO global station (Italy, 2165 m a.s.l.)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cristofanelli, P.; Fierli, F.; Marinoni, A.; Calzolari, F.; Duchi, R.; Burkhart, J.; Stohl, A.; Maione, M.; Arduini, J.; Bonasoni, P.

    2013-01-01

    This work investigates the variability of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and equivalent black carbon (BC) at the Italian Climate Observatory "O. Vittori" (ICO-OV), part of the Mt. Cimone global GAW-WMO station (Italy). For this purpose, ICO-OV observations carried out in the period January 2007-June 2009, have been analyzed and correlated with the outputs of the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model to specifically evaluate the influence of biomass burning (BB) and anthropogenic emissions younger than 20 days. During the investigation period, the average O3, CO and BC at ICO-OV were 54 ± 3 ppb, 122 ± 7 ppb and 213 ± 34 ng m-3 (mean ± expanded uncertainty with p < 95%), with clear seasonal cycles characterized by summer maxima and winter minima for O3 and BC and spring maximum and summer minimum for CO. According to FLEXPART outputs, BB impact is maximized during the warm months from July to September but appeared to have a significant contribution to the observed tracers only during specific transport events. We characterised in detail five "representative" events with respect to transport scales (i.e. global, regional and local), source regions and O3, CO and BC variations. For these events, very large variability of enhancement ratios O3/CO (from -0.22 to 0.71) and BC/CO (from 2.69 to 29.83 ng m-3 ppb-1) were observed. CO contributions related with anthropogenic emissions (COant) contributed to 17.4% of the mean CO value observed at ICO-OV, with the warm months appearing particularly affected by transport events of air-masses rich in anthropogenic pollution. The proportion of tracer variability that is described by FLEXPART COant peaked to 37% (in May-September) for CO, 19% (in May-September) for O3 and 32% (in January-April) for BC. During May-September, the analysis of the correlation among CO, O3 and BC as a function of the COant indicated that ICO-OV was influenced by air-masses rich in anthropogenic pollution transported from the regional to the global

  1. Influence of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on ozone, carbon monoxide and black carbon concentrations at the Mt. Cimone GAW-WMO global station (Italy, 2165 m a.s.l.)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cristofanelli, P.; Fierli, F.; Marinoni, A.; Duchi, R.; Burkhart, J.; Stohl, A.; Maione, M.; Arduini, J.; Bonasoni, P.

    2012-08-01

    This work investigates the variability of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and equivalent black carbon (BC) concentrations at the Italian Climate Observatory "O. Vittori" (ICO-OV), part of the Mt. Cimone global GAW-WMO station (Italy). For this purpose, ICO-OV observations carried out in the period January 2007-June 2009, have been analysed and correlated with the output of the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model to specifically evaluate the influence of biomass burning (BB) and anthropogenic emissions younger than 20 days. During the investigation period, the average O3, CO and BC concentrations at ICO-OV were 54 ± 3 ppbv, 122 ± 7 ppbv and 213 ± 34 ng m-3 (mean ± expanded uncertainty with p<95%), with clear seasonal cycles characterized by summer maxima and winter minima for O3 and BC and spring maximum and summer minimum for CO. According to FLEXPART output, BB impact is maximized during the warm months from July to September but appeared to have a significant contribution to the observed tracer concentrations only during specific transport events. We characterised in detail five major events with respect to transport scales (i.e. global, regional and local), source regions and O3, CO and BC variations. For these events, very large variability of enhancement ratios O3/CO (from -0.22 to 0.71) and BC/CO (from 2.69 to 29.83 ng m-3 ppbv-1) were observed. CO related with anthropogenic emissions (COant) contributed to 17.4% of the mean CO value observed at ICO-OV, with the warm months appearing particularly affected by transport events of air-masses rich in anthropogenic pollution. The proportion of tracer variability that is described by FLEXPART COant peaked to 37% (in May-September) for CO, 19% (in May-September) for O3 and 32% (in January-April) for BC. During May-September, the analysis of the correlation among CO, O3 and BC as a function of the COant indicated that ICO-OV was influenced by air-masses rich in anthropogenic pollution transported from the

  2. Pathways of sulfate enhancement by natural and anthropogenic mineral aerosols in China

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Xin; Song, Yu; Zhao, Chun; Li, Mengmeng; Zhu, Tong; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2014-12-27

    China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, emits approximately 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) per year. SO₂ is subsequently oxidized to sulfate in the atmosphere. However, large gaps exist between model-predicted and measured sulfate levels in China. Long-term field observations and numerical simulations were integrated to investigate the effect of mineral aerosols on sulfate formation. We found that mineral aerosols contributed a nationwide average of approximately 22% to sulfate production in 2006. The increased sulfate concentration was approximately 2 μg m⁻³ in the entire China. In East China and the Sichuan Basin, the increments reached 6.3 μg m⁻³ and 7.3 μg m⁻³, respectively. Mineral aerosols led to faster SO₂ oxidation through three pathways. First, more SO₂ was dissolved as cloud water alkalinity increased due to water-soluble mineral cations. Sulfate production was then enhanced through the aqueous-phase oxidation of S(IV) (dissolved sulfur in oxidation state +4). The contribution to the national sulfate production was 5%. Second, sulfate was enhanced through S(IV) catalyzed oxidation by transition metals. The contribution to the annual sulfate production was 8%, with 19% during the winter that decreased to 2% during the summer. Third, SO₂ reacts on the surface of mineral aerosols to produce sulfate. The contribution to the national average sulfate concentration was 9% with 16% during the winter and a negligible effect during the summer. The inclusion of mineral aerosols does resolve model discrepancies with sulfate observations in China, especially during the winter. These three pathways, which are not fully considered in most current chemistry-climate models, will significantly impact assessments regarding the effects of aerosol on climate change in China.

  3. Enhanced acidification of global coral reefs driven by regional biogeochemical feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cyronak, Tyler; Schulz, Kai G.; Santos, Isaac R.; Eyre, Bradley D.

    2014-08-01

    Physical uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is the dominant driver of ocean acidification (OA) in the open ocean. Due to expected decreases in calcification and increased dissolution of CaCO3 framework, coral reefs are thought to be highly susceptible to OA. However, biogeochemical processes can influence the pCO2 and pH of coastal ecosystems on diel and seasonal time scales, potentially modifying the long-term effects of increasing atmospheric CO2. By compiling data from the literature and removing the effects of short-term variability, we show that the average pCO2 of coral reefs throughout the globe has increased ~3.5-fold faster than in the open ocean over the past 20 years. This rapid increase in pCO2 has the potential to enhance the acidification and predicted effects of OA on coral reef ecosystems. A simple model demonstrates that potential drivers of elevated pCO2 include additional anthropogenic disturbances beyond increasing global atmospheric CO2 such as enhanced nutrient and organic matter inputs.

  4. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide source regions observed from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneising, Oliver; Heymann, Jens; Buchwitz, Michael; Reuter, Maximilian; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Burrows, John P.

    2013-04-01

    Urban areas, which are home to the majority of today's world population, are responsible for more than two-thirds of the global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Given the ongoing demographic growth and rising energy consumption in metropolitan regions particularly in the developing world, urban-based emissions are expected to further increase in the future. As a consequence, monitoring and independent verification of reported anthropogenic emissions is becoming more and more important. It is demonstrated using CO2 column-averaged mole fraction data retrieved from the SCIAMACHY instrument onboard ENVISAT that anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be detected from space and that emission trends might be tracked using satellite observations. This is promising with regard to future satellite missions with high spatial resolution and wide swath imaging capability aiming at constraining anthropogenic emissions down to the point-source scale. By subtracting retrieved background values from those retrieved over urban areas the regional contrasts are quantified and significant CO2 enhancements are found for several anthropogenic source regions around the world. The order of magnitude of the enhancements is in agreement with what is expected for anthropogenic CO2 signals. The validity of the retrieved spatial enhancement patterns and of the temporal trends of the retrieved enhancements is assessed by comparison with anthropogenic emissions from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR).

  5. Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980-2010 period

    SciTech Connect

    Granier, Claire; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Bond, Tami C.; D'Angiola, Ariela; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Frost, G. J.; Heil, Angelika; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Kinne, Stefan; Klimont, Z.; Kloster, Jean; Lamarque, J.-F.; Liousse, Catherine; Masui, Toshihiko; Meleux, Frederik; Mieville, Aude; Ohara, Toshimasa; Raut, Jean-Christophe; Riahi, Keywan; Schultz, Martin; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.; van Aardenne, John; van der Werf, Guido R.; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2011-08-08

    Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980-2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and SO2 show the best agreement in most years. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NOx emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need a better quantification in the USA for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO2 emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50-80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burnt.

  6. A solar process to end anthropogenic global warming; STEP (Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo) generation of energetic molecules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Licht, Stuart

    2010-02-01

    An alternate process to convert solar energy is derived which captures sunlight with conversion efficiency greater than that of photovoltaics. In this STEP process, rather than electrical generation, solar energy directly provides the chemical products needed by society. This original process is derived for the solar generation of energetically rich chemicals, including chlorine, metals, hydrogen and to proactively convert anthropogenic carbon dioxide generated in burning fossil fuels. The STEP process distinguishes radiation that is energy sufficient to drive photovoltaic charge transfer, and applies all excess energy to heat and decrease the energy of enodothermic electrolysis reactions. Energy sufficient, visible, sunlight drives photovoltaic charge transfer, and available heat, infrared sunlight, and excess visible sunlight, heats, and decreases the energy of, an electrolysis reaction. For example, from the STEP conversion theory, sunlight will recycle and remove carbon dioxide at 50% solar efficiency. Details at: ``STEP generation of energetic molecules,'' J. Phys. Chem., C, 113, 16283 (2009). )

  7. Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably <1 Tg N2O-N/yr). Assuming that the changes in atmospheric concentrations from 1850 to the present are entirely anthropogenic, the top-down methodology yields an estimate of 5.3 Tg N2O-N/yr (range 5.2 - 5.5) net anthropogenic emissions for the period 2000-2007. Based on a review of bottom-up inventories, we estimate total net anthropogenic N2O emissions of 6.0 Tg N2O-N/yr (5.4-8.4 Tg N2O-N/yr). Estimates (and ranges) by sector (in Tg N2O-N/yr) are: agriculture 4.1 Tg (3.8-6.8); biomass burning 0.7 (0

  8. Partnership to Enhance Diversity in Marine Geosciences: Holocene Climate and Anthropogenic Changes from Long Island Sound, NY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McHugh, C. M.; Zheng, Y.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Marchese, P.; Cormier, M.; Warkentine, B.

    2005-12-01

    This project, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Opportunities to Enhance Diversity in the Geosciences Division, will develop a program based on multidisciplinary investigations of Long Island Sound, as a vehicle to enhance diversity in geosciences. The program includes a curriculum centered on geosciences with a substantial field and laboratory component. Students will participate in a one-week oceanographic expedition to Long Island Sound aboard the R/V Cape Henlopen and in day trips using SUNY Maritime College's R/V Alexanderson. The goal is to illustrate the dominant physical processes in an urban coastal area by using a variety of oceanographic mapping techniques, such as multibeam bathymetric mapping, sediment and water sampling, and current profiling. The working hypothesis is that New York City students will be attracted to geosciences through an integrated field and research experience which familiarizes them with their own environment. Furthermore, they will be introduced to solving geoscience problems in a hands-on manner while receiving one-on-one mentoring in a supportive environment. Strong support exists from the City University of New York (CUNY) at the graduate level through MAGNET fellowships. At the undergraduate level, the geoscience curriculum fulfills a science requirement for completion of a BA in geosciences. Support also exists from the "Alliance for Minority Participation" (AMP), a program supported by the National Science Foundation and in which Queens College (QC) and CUNY participate, and the "Search for Education, Elevation, and Knowledge" (SEEK), a QC program designed to provide educational opportunities for academically motivated students who need substantial financial assistance to attend college. The main scientific objectives are 1) to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic activities through studies of the waters, plankton, and sediments and to propose measures for their remediation, and 2) to begin to assess long

  9. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Final report, September 15, 1993--September 14, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Sarmiento, J.L.; Pacala, S.W.

    1998-06-01

    The primary accomplishment of this research was the development of an ocean biogeochemistry model for the carbon cycle, and the application of this model to studies of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} uptake and the global carbon cycle. The model has been used to study the oceanic uptake that would occur if future atmospheric CO{sub 2} were to be stabilized with the ocean circulation remaining constant. The authors also modeled how oceanic uptake would be affected by changes in ocean circulation that are predicted to occur due to global warming. The research resulted in 21 publications, and an additional 5 papers either in press or in preparation. The accomplishments of this research served as the foundation on which the Carbon Modeling Consortium was built. The CMC is a NOAA funded collaborative program involving principal investigators from various NOAA laboratories and universities. It has the goal of developing techniques to monitor the global carbon cycle on land as well as the ocean, and to predict its future course.

  10. Assessment of Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Constrained by Atmospheric Measurements and Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, Stephen C.

    2001-01-01

    This grant aimed to establish how the global carbon cycle has responded and will respond to global change. We proposed to use models to predict measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration and C-13/C-12 isotopic ratio, and thereby to establish how sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 have been influenced by climatic change and human activities. As the work progressed we developed strategies involving finding regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 by an inverse approach, and studying their seasonal and interannual variability.

  11. Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development

    PubMed Central

    Magnusson, Roger S

    2007-01-01

    This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control), but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health). The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy. PMID:17519005

  12. Non-communicable diseases and global health governance: enhancing global processes to improve health development.

    PubMed

    Magnusson, Roger S

    2007-01-01

    This paper assesses progress in the development of a global framework for responding to non-communicable diseases, as reflected in the policies and initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and the UN: the institutions most capable of shaping a coherent global policy. Responding to the global burden of chronic disease requires a strategic assessment of the global processes that are likely to be most effective in generating commitment to policy change at country level, and in influencing industry behaviour. WHO has adopted a legal process with tobacco (the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control), but a non-legal, advocacy-based approach with diet and physical activity (the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health). The paper assesses the merits of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the FCTC as distinct global processes for advancing health development, before considering what lessons might be learned for enhancing the implementation of the Global Strategy on Diet. While global partnerships, economic incentives, and international legal instruments could each contribute to a more effective global response to chronic diseases, the paper makes a special case for the development of international legal standards in select areas of diet and nutrition, as a strategy for ensuring that the health of future generations does not become dependent on corporate charity and voluntary commitments. A broader frame of reference for lifestyle-related chronic diseases is needed: one that draws together WHO's work in tobacco, nutrition and physical activity, and that envisages selective use of international legal obligations, non-binding recommendations, advocacy and policy advice as tools of choice for promoting different elements of the strategy. PMID:17519005

  13. Impact of anthropogenic and climatic changes on biomass and diversity of the Central African forests, from local to global scale: original methods for new results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie; Ouédraogo, Dakis; Picard, Nicolas; Rossi, Vivien

    2014-05-01

    Forests of the Congo Basin, the second most important remaining block of tropical moist forest in the world, are facing increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Understanding the biomass and diversity dynamics under these pressures is one major challenge for African nations and international communities. This talk aims to present original methods to model, infer, and predict growth, biomass and diversity of Central African forests, as well as new results on the impacts of global change on those forests, at various scales. With respect to methods, we will present theoretical frameworks allowing (i) to model growth processes in species-rich ecosystems like tropical rain forests, (ii) to take into account uncertainties in biomass estimation. In terms of results, we will highlight at a local scale, how human activities as well as climatic variations would impact (i) the composition and diversity of forests, (ii) the dynamics of biomass and growth processes. At a global scale, we will demonstrate how environmental filtering controls the above ground biomass. The number of studies are currently increasing over the Congo Basin through several research projects led by our team (CoForTips, DynAfFor) and contributing to various international organization's programs (Cifor, FAO, Comifac, Ofac).

  14. Evolutionary genomics of Culex pipiens: global and local adaptations associated with climate, life-history traits and anthropogenic factors

    PubMed Central

    Asgharian, Hosseinali; Chang, Peter L.; Lysenkov, Sergey; Scobeyeva, Victoria A.; Reisen, William K.; Nuzhdin, Sergey V.

    2015-01-01

    We present the first genome-wide study of recent evolution in Culex pipiens species complex focusing on the genomic extent, functional targets and likely causes of global and local adaptations. We resequenced pooled samples of six populations of C. pipiens and two populations of the outgroup Culex torrentium. We used principal component analysis to systematically study differential natural selection across populations and developed a phylogenetic scanning method to analyse admixture without haplotype data. We found evidence for the prominent role of geographical distribution in shaping population structure and specifying patterns of genomic selection. Multiple adaptive events, involving genes implicated with autogeny, diapause and insecticide resistance were limited to specific populations. We estimate that about 5–20% of the genes (including several histone genes) and almost half of the annotated pathways were undergoing selective sweeps in each population. The high occurrence of sweeps in non-genic regions and in chromatin remodelling genes indicated the adaptive importance of gene expression changes. We hypothesize that global adaptive processes in the C. pipiens complex are potentially associated with South to North range expansion, requiring adjustments in chromatin conformation. Strong local signature of adaptation and emergence of hybrid bridge vectors necessitate genomic assessment of populations before specifying control agents. PMID:26085592

  15. Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

    PubMed

    Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

    2006-03-01

    Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates. PMID:16512865

  16. The Geophysical, Anthropogenic, and Social Dimensions of Delta Risk: Estimating Contemporary and Future Risks at the Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Grossberg, M.; Gladkova, I.; Aizenman, H.; Syvitski, J. P.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2015-12-01

    Deltas are highly sensitive to increasing risks arising from local humanactivities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise,and climate extremes. We extended a delta risk framework to include the impactof relative sea-level rise on exposure to flood conditions. We apply thisframework to an integrated set of global environmental, geophysical, and socialindicators over 48 major deltas to quantify how delta flood risk due to extremeevents is changing over time. Although geophysical and relative sea-level risederived risks are distributed across all levels of economic development, wealthycountries effectively limit their present-day threat by gross domesticproduct-enabled infrastructure and coastal defense investments. However, wheninvestments do not address the long-term drivers of land subsidence and relativesea-level rise, overall risk can be very sensitive to changes in protectivecapability. For instance, we show how in an energy-constrained future scenario,such protections will probably prove to be unsustainable, raising relative risksby four to eight times in the Mississippi and Rhine deltas and by one-and-a-halfto four times in the Chao Phraya and Yangtze deltas. The current emphasis onshort-term solutions on the world's deltas will greatly constrain options fordesigning sustainable solutions in the long term.

  17. Evolutionary genomics of Culex pipiens: global and local adaptations associated with climate, life-history traits and anthropogenic factors.

    PubMed

    Asgharian, Hosseinali; Chang, Peter L; Lysenkov, Sergey; Scobeyeva, Victoria A; Reisen, William K; Nuzhdin, Sergey V

    2015-07-01

    We present the first genome-wide study of recent evolution in Culex pipiens species complex focusing on the genomic extent, functional targets and likely causes of global and local adaptations. We resequenced pooled samples of six populations of C. pipiens and two populations of the outgroup Culex torrentium. We used principal component analysis to systematically study differential natural selection across populations and developed a phylogenetic scanning method to analyse admixture without haplotype data. We found evidence for the prominent role of geographical distribution in shaping population structure and specifying patterns of genomic selection. Multiple adaptive events, involving genes implicated with autogeny, diapause and insecticide resistance were limited to specific populations. We estimate that about 5-20% of the genes (including several histone genes) and almost half of the annotated pathways were undergoing selective sweeps in each population. The high occurrence of sweeps in non-genic regions and in chromatin remodelling genes indicated the adaptive importance of gene expression changes. We hypothesize that global adaptive processes in the C. pipiens complex are potentially associated with South to North range expansion, requiring adjustments in chromatin conformation. Strong local signature of adaptation and emergence of hybrid bridge vectors necessitate genomic assessment of populations before specifying control agents. PMID:26085592

  18. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise

    PubMed Central

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ∼1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin. PMID:26220773

  19. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ∼1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin. PMID:26220773

  20. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-07-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ~1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.

  1. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Bouwman, Lex; Smith, Steven J.; Dentener, Frank

    2011-09-17

    Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.

  2. The influence of climate change on the global distribution and fate processes of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants.

    PubMed

    Kallenborn, Roland; Halsall, Crispin; Dellong, Maud; Carlsson, Pernilla

    2012-11-01

    The effect of climate change on the global distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of growing interest to both scientists and policy makers alike. The impact of warmer temperatures and the resulting changes to earth system processes on chemical fate are, however, unclear, although there are a growing number of studies that are beginning to examine these impacts and changes in a quantitative way. In this review, we examine broad areas where changes are occurring or are likely to occur with regard to the environmental cycling and fate of chemical contaminants. For this purpose we are examining scientific information from long-term monitoring data with particular emphasis on the Arctic, to show apparent changes in chemical patterns and behaviour. In addition, we examine evidence of changing chemical processes for a number of environmental compartments and indirect effects of climate change on contaminant emissions and behaviour. We also recommend areas of research to address knowledge gaps. In general, our findings indicate that the indirect consequences of climate change (i.e. shifts in agriculture, resource exploitation opportunities, etc.) will have a more marked impact on contaminants distribution and fate than direct climate change. PMID:23014859

  3. 5-dim superconformal index with enhanced E n global symmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hee-Cheol; Kim, Sung-Soo; Lee, Kimyeong

    2012-10-01

    The five-dimensional {N}=1 supersymmetric gauge theory with Sp( N) gauge group and SO(2 N f ) flavor symmetry describes the physics on N D4-branes with N f D8-branes on top of a single O8 orientifold plane in Type I' theory. This theory is known to be superconformal at the strong coupling limit with the enhanced global symmetry {E_{{N_f +1}}} for N f ≤ 7. In this work we calculate the superconformal index on S 1 × S 4 for the Sp(1) gauge theory by the localization method and confirm such enhancement of the global symmetry at the superconformal limit for N f ≤ 5 to a few leading orders in the chemical potential. Both perturbative and (anti)instanton contributions are present in this calculation. For N f = 6, 7 cases some issues related the pole structure of the instanton calculation could not be resolved and here we could provide only some suggestive answer for the leading contributions to the index. For the Sp( N) case, similar issues related to the pole structure appear.

  4. GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2015-09-01

    Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg - Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas- and aqueous-phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatiotemporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of 2, and within a factor of 5 for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of surface Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24 % in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62 % of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively

  5. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  6. Global wild annual Lens collection: a potential resource for lentil genetic base broadening and yield enhancement.

    PubMed

    Singh, Mohar; Bisht, Ishwari Singh; Kumar, Sandeep; Dutta, Manoranjan; Bansal, Kailash Chander; Karale, Moreshwar; Sarker, Ashutosh; Amri, Ahmad; Kumar, Shiv; Datta, Swapan Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are invaluable gene sources for various traits of interest, yet these potential resources are themselves increasingly threatened by the impact of climate change as well as other anthropogenic and socio-economic factors. The prime goal of our research was to cover all aspects of wild Lens genetic resource management like species characterization, agro-morphological evaluation, diversity assessment, and development of representative sets for its enhanced utilization in lentil base broadening and yield improvement initiatives. We characterized and evaluated extensively, the global wild annual Lens taxa, originating from twenty seven counties under two agro-climatic conditions of India consecutively for three cropping seasons. Results on various qualitative and quantitative characters including two foliar diseases showed wide variations for almost all yield attributing traits including multiple disease resistance in the wild species, L. nigricans and L. ervoides accessions. The core set developed from the entire Lens taxa had maximum representation from Turkey and Syria, indicating rich diversity in accessions originating from these regions. Diversity analysis also indicated wide geographical variations across genepool as was reflected in the core set. Potential use of core set, as an initial starting material, for genetic base broadening of cultivated lentil was also suggested. PMID:25254552

  7. Global Wild Annual Lens Collection: A Potential Resource for Lentil Genetic Base Broadening and Yield Enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Mohar; Bisht, Ishwari Singh; Kumar, Sandeep; Dutta, Manoranjan; Bansal, Kailash Chander; Karale, Moreshwar; Sarker, Ashutosh; Amri, Ahmad; Kumar, Shiv; Datta, Swapan Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are invaluable gene sources for various traits of interest, yet these potential resources are themselves increasingly threatened by the impact of climate change as well as other anthropogenic and socio-economic factors. The prime goal of our research was to cover all aspects of wild Lens genetic resource management like species characterization, agro-morphological evaluation, diversity assessment, and development of representative sets for its enhanced utilization in lentil base broadening and yield improvement initiatives. We characterized and evaluated extensively, the global wild annual Lens taxa, originating from twenty seven counties under two agro-climatic conditions of India consecutively for three cropping seasons. Results on various qualitative and quantitative characters including two foliar diseases showed wide variations for almost all yield attributing traits including multiple disease resistance in the wild species, L. nigricans and L. ervoides accessions. The core set developed from the entire Lens taxa had maximum representation from Turkey and Syria, indicating rich diversity in accessions originating from these regions. Diversity analysis also indicated wide geographical variations across genepool as was reflected in the core set. Potential use of core set, as an initial starting material, for genetic base broadening of cultivated lentil was also suggested. PMID:25254552

  8. Past and Future of the Anthropogenic Biosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Human populations and their use of land have now transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes). As anthromes have emerged as the dominant global forms of ecological pattern and process, human interactions with terrestrial ecosystems have become a key earth system process, determining the structure and functioning of the biosphere. This presentation explores Ester Boserup’s land use intensification theories as models for understanding the emergence and dynamics of anthromes and their ecological processes, including their biogeochemistry and community structure, from the mostly wild biosphere of the Holocene to the primarily anthropogenic biosphere of the present and future. Existing global models and data for human population growth and land use over the Holocene differ in their portrayal of the global transition to a mostly anthropogenic biosphere. Yet there is little doubt that human populations have continued to grow over the long term and that anthromes have been increasingly important global ecological systems for millennia. This is conclusive evidence that human interactions with ecosystems can be sustained over the long-term, albeit under conditions that may no longer be realizable by either Earth or human systems. The classic Malthusian paradigm, in which human population growth outstrips natural resources leading to population collapse is unsupported by historical observations at global scale. Boserupian intensification is the better model, providing a robust theoretical foundation in which socio-ecological systems evolve as human populations increase, towards increasingly efficient use of limiting natural resources and enhanced production of anthropogenic ecological services such as food. This is not a story of technical advance, but rather of the forced adoption of ever more energy-intensive technical solutions in support of ever increasing population demands. And it does explain historical changes in the biosphere

  9. GNAQPMS-Hg v1.0, a global nested atmospheric mercury transport model: model description, evaluation and application to trans-boundary transport of Chinese anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H. S.; Wang, Z. F.; Li, J.; Tang, X.; Ge, B. Z.; Wu, X. L.; Wild, O.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2014-10-01

    Atmospheric mercury (Hg) is a toxic pollutant and can be transported over the whole globe due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. For the purpose of assessing Hg hemispheric transport and better characterizing regional Hg pollution, a global nested atmospheric Hg transport model (GNAQPMS-Hg) has been developed. In GNAQPMS-Hg, the gas and aqueous phase Hg chemistry representing the transformation among three forms of Hg: elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)), and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) are calculated. A detailed description of the model, including mercury emissions, gas and aqueous phase chemistry, and dry and wet deposition is given in this study. Worldwide observations including extensive data in China have been collected for model evaluation. Comparison results show that the model reasonably simulates the global mercury budget and the spatial-temporal variation of surface mercury concentrations and deposition. Overall, model predictions of annual total gaseous mercury (TGM) and wet deposition agree with observations within a factor of two, and within a factor of five for oxidized mercury and dry deposition. The model performs significantly better in North America and Europe than in East Asia. This can probably be attributed to the large uncertainties in emission inventories, coarse model resolution and to the inconsistency between the simulation and observation periods in East Asia. Compared to the global simulation, the nested simulation shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial variability of Hg concentrations and deposition over East Asia. In particular, the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated Hg wet deposition over East Asia is reduced by 24% in the nested simulation. Model sensitivity studies indicate that Chinese primary anthropogenic emissions account for 30 and 62% of surface mercury concentrations and deposition over China, respectively. Along the rim of the western Pacific, the contributions from Chinese

  10. Enhancement of Global Communication Skill at the School of Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morimura, Kumiko

    Globalization is one of the most important challenges for universities. Especially for the School of Engineering, it is crucial to foster researchers or engineers with broader perspective. International communication competency is essential for them in order to deal with other professionals from overseas. Center for Innovation in Engineering Education established in the School of Engineering at the University of Tokyo in 2005 started two programs for graduate and undergraduate students to enhance their international communication competency and to increase international competitiveness. ‘English for Scientists and Engineers A, B’ are for the graduate students to learn how to write papers in English and how to make good presentations. Special English Lessons are for the undergraduate students to have a chance to practice English conversation or prepare for TOEFL test. In this paper, the authors discuss the details of the programs, their purpose and the future tasks.

  11. Enhancing Global Competitiveness through Experiential Learning: Insights into Successful Programming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghose, Nabarun

    2010-01-01

    International exposure of students is very essential in today's globalized world. Experiential learning, such as study abroad, plays a major role in developing global competencies in students, making them more marketable globally. This paper highlights one experiential activity that injects global competencies in students, thereby making them more…

  12. Global View of Io (Natural and False/Enhanced Color)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    Global view of Jupiter's volcanic moon Io obtained on 07 September, 1996 Universal Time using the near-infrared, green, and violet filters of the Solid State Imaging system aboard NASA/JPL's Galileo spacecraft. The top disk is intended to show the satellite in natural color, similar to what the human eye would see (but colors will vary with display devices), while the bottom disk shows enhanced color to highlight surface details. The reddest and blackest areas are closely associated with active volcanic regions and recent surface deposits. Io was imaged here against the clouds of Jupiter. North is to the top of the frames. The finest details that can discerned in these frames are about 4.9 km across.

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC. JPL is an operating division of California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

    This image and other images and data received from Galileo are posted on the World Wide Web, on the Galileo mission home page at URL http://galileo.jpl.nasa.gov. Background information and educational context for the images can be found at URL http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/galileo/sepo

  13. Using reconstructions of the global peat C balance over the Holocene to constrain the timing and magnitude of anthropogenic land use emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocker, Benjamin; Yu, Zicheng; Massa, Charly; Spahni, Renato; Prentice, Colin; Joos, Fortunat

    2016-04-01

    Major circumpolar peatlands of the northern hemisphere have established over the last 14 kyr, with the majority of peat C sequestered during the Holocene. Today, this C storage amounts to 500-600 GtC. In spite of this substantial impact on the C cycle, independent records of the total terrestrial C balance suggest a small long-term trend over the last 6 kyr. The advent of agriculture, associated land use change, and resulting cumulative CO2 emissions of 50-350 GtC have occurred during a period of continued C sequestration in peatlands. Relatively small variations in the total terrestrial C balance have thus been interpreted to indicate a coincidental timing and a similar magnitude of these compensating fluxes and to lend support for upper-end estimates of preindustrial land use emissions. Here, we test this hypothesis by combining observation-based reconstructions of the terrestrial C balance (ΔC) and peat storage (ΔCpeat) with new results from process-based global land C cycle models that hindcast peat C dynamics and CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use change (ΔCLUC) following a set of contrasting land use reconstructions. Recent data compilations of peat C accumulation histories allow us to provide an improved temporal resolution of observation-based ΔCpeat. We assess the terrestrial C budget ΔC = ΔCpeat+ δ for different periods in the Holocene and in the last millennium and confront ΔCLUC with the budget residual δ. We find that the combination of ΔCpeat and ΔC and their temporal variations provide additional constraints on ΔCLUC estimates that have thus far not been taken into account. Between 11-7 kyr BP, ΔCpeat alone accounts for the majority of ΔC, incompatible with upper-end ΔCLUC estimates. Between 7-5 kyr BP and 5-2 kyr BP, the budget reveals a substantial land C source, but all model-based estimates of ΔCLUC fall short of explaining the magnitude of δ. ΔC reveals a relatively stable overall C balance during the last millennium

  14. Launch vehicle tracking enhancement through Global Positioning System Metric Tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, T. C.; Li, Hanchu; Gray, T.; Doran, A.

    United Launch Alliance (ULA) initiated operational flights of both the Atlas V and Delta IV launch vehicle families in 2002. The Atlas V and Delta IV launch vehicles were developed jointly with the US Air Force (USAF) as part of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program. Both Launch Vehicle (LV) families have provided 100% mission success since their respective inaugural launches and demonstrated launch capability from both Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the Western Test Range and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) on the Eastern Test Range. However, the current EELV fleet communications, tracking, & control architecture & technology, which date back to the origins of the space launch business, require support by a large and high cost ground footprint. The USAF has embarked on an initiative known as Future Flight Safety System (FFSS) that will significantly reduce Test Range Operations and Maintenance (O& M) cost by closing facilities and decommissioning ground assets. In support of the FFSS, a Global Positioning System Metric Tracking (GPS MT) System based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation has been developed for EELV which will allow both Ranges to divest some of their radar assets. The Air Force, ULA and Space Vector have flown the first 2 Atlas Certification vehicles demonstrating the successful operation of the GPS MT System. The first Atlas V certification flight was completed in February 2012 from CCAFS, the second Atlas V certification flight from VAFB was completed in September 2012 and the third certification flight on a Delta IV was completed October 2012 from CCAFS. The GPS MT System will provide precise LV position, velocity and timing information that can replace ground radar tracking resource functionality. The GPS MT system will provide an independent position/velocity S-Band telemetry downlink to support the current man-in-the-loop ground-based commanded destruct of an anomalous flight- The system

  15. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    PubMed

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. PMID:17842894

  16. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1992-01-01

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  17. The new geospatial tools: global transparency enhancing safeguards verification

    SciTech Connect

    Pabian, Frank Vincent

    2010-09-16

    This paper focuses on the importance and potential role of the new, freely available, geospatial tools for enhancing IAEA safeguards and how, together with commercial satellite imagery, they can be used to promote 'all-source synergy'. As additional 'open sources', these new geospatial tools have heralded a new era of 'global transparency' and they can be used to substantially augment existing information-driven safeguards gathering techniques, procedures, and analyses in the remote detection of undeclared facilities, as well as support ongoing monitoring and verification of various treaty (e.g., NPT, FMCT) relevant activities and programs. As an illustration of how these new geospatial tools may be applied, an original exemplar case study provides how it is possible to derive value-added follow-up information on some recent public media reporting of a former clandestine underground plutonium production complex (now being converted to a 'Tourist Attraction' given the site's abandonment by China in the early 1980s). That open source media reporting, when combined with subsequent commentary found in various Internet-based Blogs and Wikis, led to independent verification of the reporting with additional ground truth via 'crowdsourcing' (tourist photos as found on 'social networking' venues like Google Earth's Panoramio layer and Twitter). Confirmation of the precise geospatial location of the site (along with a more complete facility characterization incorporating 3-D Modeling and visualization) was only made possible following the acquisition of higher resolution commercial satellite imagery that could be correlated with the reporting, ground photos, and an interior diagram, through original imagery analysis of the overhead imagery.

  18. Europa Global Views in Natural and Enhanced Colors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This color composite view combines violet, green, and infrared images of Jupiter's intriguing moon, Europa, for a view of the moon in natural color (left) and in enhanced color designed to bring out subtle color differences in the surface (right). The bright white and bluish part of Europa's surface is composed mostly of water ice, with very few non-ice materials. In contrast, the brownish mottled regions on the right side of the image may be covered by hydrated salts and an unknown red component. The yellowish mottled terrain on the left side of the image is caused by some other unknown component. Long, dark lines are fractures in the crust, some of which are more than 3,000 kilometers (1,850 miles) long.

    North is to the top of the picture and the sun fully illuminates the surface. Europa is about 3,160 kilometers (1,950 miles) in diameter, or about the size of Earth's moon. The finest details that can be discerned are 25 kilometers across. The images in this global view were taken in June 1997 at a range of 1.25 million kilometers by the Solid State Imaging (SSI) system on NASA's Galileo spacecraft, during its ninth orbit of Jupiter.

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC. JPL is an operating division of California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

    This image and other images and data received from Galileo are posted on the World Wide Web, on the Galileo mission home page at URL http://galileo.jpl.nasa.gov. Background information and educational context for the images can be found at URL http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/galileo/sepo

  19. Release of Pleurotus ostreatus Versatile-Peroxidase from Mn2+ Repression Enhances Anthropogenic and Natural Substrate Degradation

    PubMed Central

    Salame, Tomer M.; Knop, Doriv; Levinson, Dana; Mabjeesh, Sameer J.; Yarden, Oded; Hadar, Yitzhak

    2012-01-01

    The versatile-peroxidase (VP) encoded by mnp4 is one of the nine members of the manganese-peroxidase (MnP) gene family that constitutes part of the ligninolytic system of the white-rot basidiomycete Pleurotus ostreatus (oyster mushroom). VP enzymes exhibit dual activity on a wide range of substrates. As Mn2+ supplement to P. ostreatus cultures results in enhanced degradation of recalcitrant compounds and lignin, we examined the effect of Mn2+ on the expression profile of the MnP gene family. In P. ostreatus (monokaryon PC9), mnp4 was found to be the predominantly expressed mnp in Mn2+-deficient media, whereas strongly repressed (to approximately 1%) in Mn2+-supplemented media. Accordingly, in-vitro Mn2+-independent activity was found to be negligible. We tested whether release of mnp4 from Mn2+ repression alters the activity of the ligninolytic system. A transformant over-expressing mnp4 (designated OEmnp4) under the control of the β-tubulin promoter was produced. Now, despite the presence of Mn2+ in the medium, OEmnp4 produced mnp4 transcript as well as VP activity as early as 4 days after inoculation. The level of expression was constant throughout 10 days of incubation (about 0.4-fold relative to β-tubulin) and the activity was comparable to the typical activity of PC9 in Mn2+-deficient media. In-vivo decolorization of the azo dyes Orange II, Reactive Black 5, and Amaranth by OEmnp4 preceded that of PC9. OEmnp4 and PC9 were grown for 2 weeks under solid-state fermentation conditions on cotton stalks as a lignocellulosic substrate. [14C]-lignin mineralization, in-vitro dry matter digestibility, and neutral detergent fiber digestibility were found to be significantly higher (about 25%) in OEmnp4-fermented substrate, relative to PC9. We conclude that releasing Mn2+ suppression of VP4 by over-expression of the mnp4 gene in P. ostreatus improved its ligninolytic functionality. PMID:23285046

  20. Enhancing the Global Perspective of Middle School Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peters, Richard

    1990-01-01

    Provides eight lesson plans for grades five through eight designed to foster a global perspective and understanding of cultural and environmental diversity. Includes lesson objectives, suggested class activities, and teacher assessment suggestions. (RW)

  1. On the fate of anthropogenic nitrogen

    PubMed Central

    Schlesinger, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This article provides a synthesis of literature values to trace the fate of 150 Tg/yr anthropogenic nitrogen applied by humans to the Earth's land surface. Approximately 9 TgN/yr may be accumulating in the terrestrial biosphere in pools with residence times of ten to several hundred years. Enhanced fluvial transport of nitrogen in rivers and percolation to groundwater accounts for ≈35 and 15 TgN/yr, respectively. Greater denitrification in terrestrial soils and wetlands may account for the loss of ≈17 TgN/yr from the land surface, calculated by a compilation of data on the fraction of N2O emitted to the atmosphere and the current global rise of this gas in the atmosphere. A recent estimate of atmospheric transport of reactive nitrogen from land to sea (NOx and NHx) accounts for 48 TgN/yr. The total of these enhanced sinks, 124 TgN/yr, is less than the human-enhanced inputs to the land surface, indicating areas of needed additional attention to global nitrogen biogeochemistry. Policy makers should focus on increasing nitrogen-use efficiency in fertilization, reducing transport of reactive N to rivers and groundwater, and maximizing denitrification to its N2 endproduct. PMID:19118195

  2. Focusing on the Interfaces, Estuaries and Redox Transition Zones, for Understanding the Microbial Processes and Biogeochemical Cycling of Carbon under the Looming Influence of Global Warming and Anthropogenic Perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dang, H.; Jiao, N.

    2013-12-01

    Estuaries are the natural interface between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. These are also the zones where human activities exert the strongest impact on the earth and ocean environments. Due to high pressure from the effects of global warming and anthropogenic activities, many estuaries are deteriorating and experiencing significant change of the ecological processes and environmental functions. Certain fundamental microbial processes, including carbon fixation and respiration, have been changing as responses to and consequences of the altered estuarine environment and geochemistry. Increased inputs of terrigenous and anthropogenic organic materials and nutrients and elevated temperature make estuaries easy to be subjected to harmful algal blooms and hypoxic and even anoxic events. The change of the redox status of the estuarine and coastal waters and the increased nutrient loads such as that from terrestrial nitrate stimulate anaerobic respiration processes, such as nitrate reduction and denitrification. This may have strong negative impact on the marine environment, ecosystem and even climate, such as those caused by greenhouse gas production (N2O, CH4) by anaerobic microbial processes. In addition, some nutrients may be consumed by anaerobically respiring heterotrophic microorganisms, instead of being utilized by phytoplankton for carbon fixation. In this regard, the ecological function of the estuarine ecosystem may be altered and the ecological efficiency may be lowered, as less energy is produced by the microbial respiration process and less carbon is fixed by phytoplankton. However, on the other side, in hypoxic and anoxic waters, inorganic carbon fixation by anaerobic microorganisms may happen, such as those via the chemolithoautotrophic denitrifying sulfur oxidizing process and the anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) process. Global warming and anthropogenic perturbations may have lowered the diversity, complexity, stability and sustainability of

  3. Influence of Dynamic Land Use and Land Cover Change on Simulated Global Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles, Climate-carbon Cycle Feedbacks, and Interactions with Rising CO2 and Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition

    SciTech Connect

    Thornton, Peter E; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hurtt, George C

    2009-12-01

    Previous work has demonstrated the sensitivity of terrestrial net carbon exchange to disturbance history and land use patterns at the scale of individual sites or regions. Here we show the influence of land use and land cover dynamics over the historical period 1850-present on global-scale carbon, nutrient, water, and energy fluxes. We also explore the spatial and temporal details of interactions among land use and disturbance history, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide consentation, and increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Our simulations show that these interactions are significant, and that their importance grows over time, expressed as a fraction of the independent forcing terms. We conclude with an analysis of the influence of these interactions on the sign and magnitude of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

  4. Web-Based Exchange of Views Enhances "Global Studies"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahamer, Gilbert; Kumpfmuller, Karl A.; Hohenwarter, Michaela

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to present the development-oriented Master's curriculum "Global Studies" (GS) at the University of Graz, Austria, as an example of interdisciplinary academic training with the purpose of fostering inter-"cultural" understanding. It aims to show that scientific disciplines can be understood as "cultures of…

  5. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  6. Three Methods of Enhancing Global Educational Awareness for Future Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haapanen, Iris

    2013-01-01

    Teachers can echo the ethnic diversity of students in simulation trips to achieve an appreciation of globally indigenous education practices for future teachers. This article explores the three methods of achieving this, consisting of technology, acting out, and simulated trips, as they may be used by teachers to blend the more salient…

  7. Distance Learning Technology for Enhancing Pedagogy: The Global Connection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, David E.

    1997-01-01

    The global connection is a business education project undertaken at three diverse institutions located in Denmark (Copenhagen Business School) and California (National University, Coastline Community College). The project incorporates video teleconferencing technology to provide six guest speakers for teaching purposes within one academic year…

  8. Telecommunications: Working To Enhance Global Understanding and Peace Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schrum, Lynne M.

    This paper describes educational activities that make use of microcomputers and information networks to link elementary and secondary students electronically using telecommunications, i.e., communication across distances using personal computers, modems, telephone lines, and computer networks. Efforts to promote global understanding and awareness…

  9. Anthropogenic forcings on the surficial osmium cycle.

    PubMed

    Rauch, Sebastien; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, Bernhard; Kylander, Malin E; Weiss, Dominik J; Martinez-Cortizas, Antonio; Heslop, David; Olid, Carolina; Mighall, Tim M; Hemond, Harold F

    2010-02-01

    Osmium is among the least abundant elements in the Earth's continental crust. Recent anthropogenic Os contamination of the environment from mining and smelting activities, automotive catalytic converter use, and hospital discharges has been documented. Here we present evidence for anthropogenic overprinting of the natural Os cycle using a ca. 7000-year record of atmospheric Os deposition and isotopic composition from an ombrotrophic peat bog in NW Spain. Preanthropogenic Os accumulation in this area is 0.10 +/- 0.04 ng m(-2) y(-1). The oldest strata showing human influence correspond to early metal mining and processing on the Iberian Peninsula (ca. 4700-2500 cal. BP). Elevated Os accumulation rates are found thereafter with a local maximum of 1.1 ng m(-2) y(-1) during the Roman occupation of the Iberian Peninsula (ca. 1930 cal. BP) and a further increase starting in 1750 AD with Os accumulation reaching 30 ng m(-2) y(-1) in the most recent samples. Osmium isotopic composition ((187)Os/(188)Os) indicates that recent elevated Os accumulation results from increased input of unradiogenic Os from industrial and automotive sources as well as from enhanced deposition of radiogenic Os through increased fossil fuel combustion and soil erosion. We posit that the rapid increase in catalyst-equipped vehicles, increased fossil fuel combustion, and changes in land-use make the changes observed in NW Spain globally relevant. PMID:19995091

  10. Enhanced global integration of closed contours in individuals with high levels of autistic-like traits.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Renita A; Dickinson, J Edwin; Maybery, Murray T; Badcock, Johanna C; Badcock, David R

    2014-10-01

    Individuals with autistic traits (measured with Autism-spectrum Quotient, AQ) often excel in detecting shapes hidden within complex structures (e.g. on the Embedded Figures Test, EFT). This facility has been attributed to either weaker global integration of scene elements or enhanced local processing, but 'local' and 'global' have various meanings in the literature. The function of specific global visual mechanisms involved in integrating contours, similar to EFT targets was examined. High AQ scorers produced enhanced performance on the EFT and an alternative Radial Frequency Search Task. Contrary to 'generic' interpretations of weaker global pooling, this group displayed stronger pooling of contour components that was correlated with search ability. This study therefore shows a global contour integration advantage in high AQ observers. PMID:25175114

  11. GenMin: An enhanced genetic algorithm for global optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsoulos, Ioannis G.; Lagaris, I. E.

    2008-06-01

    A new method that employs grammatical evolution and a stopping rule for finding the global minimum of a continuous multidimensional, multimodal function is considered. The genetic algorithm used is a hybrid genetic algorithm in conjunction with a local search procedure. We list results from numerical experiments with a series of test functions and we compare with other established global optimization methods. The accompanying software accepts objective functions coded either in Fortran 77 or in C++. Program summaryProgram title: GenMin Catalogue identifier: AEAR_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEAR_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 35 810 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 436 613 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: GNU-C++, GNU-C, GNU Fortran 77 Computer: The tool is designed to be portable in all systems running the GNU C++ compiler Operating system: The tool is designed to be portable in all systems running the GNU C++ compiler RAM: 200 KB Word size: 32 bits Classification: 4.9 Nature of problem: A multitude of problems in science and engineering are often reduced to minimizing a function of many variables. There are instances that a local optimum does not correspond to the desired physical solution and hence the search for a better solution is required. Local optimization techniques are frequently trapped in local minima. Global optimization is hence the appropriate tool. For example, solving a nonlinear system of equations via optimization, employing a least squares type of objective, one may encounter many local minima that do not correspond to solutions (i.e. they are far from zero). Solution method: Grammatical evolution and a stopping rule. Running time: Depending on the

  12. An Enhanced Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Validation Network Prototype

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwaller, Matthew R.; Morris, K. Robert

    2009-01-01

    A Validation Network (VN) prototype is currently underway that compares data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to similar measurements from the U.S. national network of operational weather radars. This prototype is being conducted as part of the ground validation activities of NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. GPM will carry a Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar instrument (DPR) with similar characteristics to the TRMM PR. The purpose of the VN is to identify and resolve significant discrepancies between the U.S. national network of ground radar (GR) observations and satellite observations. The ultimate goal of such comparisons is to understand and resolve the first order variability and bias of precipitation retrievals in different meteorological/hydrological regimes at large scales. This paper presents a description of, and results from, an improved algorithm for volume matching and comparison of PR and ground radar observations.

  13. Global Change Master Directory enhances search for Earth science data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, Lola

    The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) offers an on-line search and retrieval system for those interested in identifying Earth science data sets for educational and research needs. At the heart of the directory is a database of 3400 Earth science entries.It includes references to data held at many federal agencies, universities, and foreign countries. Content is updated and software is upgraded continuously by the GCMD staff. Earth science data set descriptions in the GCMD are written in the Directory Interchange Format (DIF). The DIF has gained interagency and international acceptance in documenting directory-level information for the Earth sciences. New fields have recently been added to bring the DIF into compliance with the Federal Geographic Data Committee's Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata. These additional new fields allow more complete documentation for all data sets, including those held in Geographic Information Systems.

  14. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    PubMed

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  15. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-08-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  16. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    PubMed Central

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

  17. The study to enhance the mask global CD uniformity by removing local CD variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Yongkyoo; Kim, Munsik; Han, Oscar

    2007-03-01

    As pattern size is shrinking, required mask CD specification is tighter and its effect on wafer patterning is more severe. Recent study showed that the effect of mask local CD variation of mask on wafer is much smaller than that of global CD variation.[1] To enhance the device performance, wafer CD uniformity should be enhanced and controlled by mask global CD uniformity. Mask global CD uniformity usually can be enhanced by mask process and optimal fogging effect correction. To enhance the mask global CD uniformity on mask, resist process and FEC (Fogging Effect Correction), reliable CD measurement tool and methods are necessary. Recently, group CD using OCD(Spectroscopic Ellipsometer) or AIMS(Aerial Image Measurement and Simulation) or polynomial fitting method is introduced to represent global CD variation on mask.[2][3][4] These methods are removing local CD variation on mask. The local CD variation will be remained as residual CD after approximation. In this paper, local CD variation of mask and wafer is evaluated and 2 kinds of methods are used to measure CD on mask and wafer, and the correlation of global CD of mask and field CD of wafer are evaluated. And the repeatability of field to field CD uniformity of wafer is evaluated to correct the fields CD uniformity of wafer by controlling the selective changing of transmittance of mask or to feed back to mask process. Higher correlation between fields of wafer, more accurate correction can be possible.

  18. Enhanced global mathematical model for studying cerebral venous blood flow.

    PubMed

    Müller, Lucas O; Toro, Eleuterio F

    2014-10-17

    Here we extend the global, closed-loop, mathematical model for the cardiovascular system in Müller and Toro (2014) to account for fundamental mechanisms affecting cerebral venous haemodynamics: the interaction between intracranial pressure and cerebral vasculature and the Starling-resistor like behaviour of intracranial veins. Computational results are compared with flow measurements obtained from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), showing overall satisfactory agreement. The role played by each model component in shaping cerebral venous flow waveforms is investigated. Our results are discussed in light of current physiological concepts and model-driven considerations, indicating that the Starling-resistor like behaviour of intracranial veins at the point where they join dural sinuses is the leading mechanism. Moreover, we present preliminary results on the impact of neck vein strictures on cerebral venous hemodynamics. These results show that such anomalies cause a pressure increment in intracranial cerebral veins, even if the shielding effect of the Starling-resistor like behaviour of cerebral veins is taken into account. PMID:25169660

  19. EMISSIONS AND COST ESTIMATES FOR GLOBALLY SIGNIFICANT ANTHROPOGENIC COMBUSTION SOURCES OF NOX, N2O, CH4, CO AND CO2

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report discusses the development of emission factors for CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and N2O for about 80 globally significant combustion sources in seven source categories: utility, industrial, fuel production, transportation, residential, commercial, and kilns/ovens/dryers. ecause o...

  20. Assessment of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Using a 3-D Model Constrained by Isotopic Carbon Measurements and Remote Sensing of Vegetation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, S. C.

    1998-01-01

    Our original proposal called for improved modeling of the terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle, specifically using biome-specific process models to account for both the energy and water budgets of plant growth, to facilitate investigations into recent changes in global atmospheric CO2 abundance and regional distribution. The carbon fluxes predicted by these models were to be incorporated into a global model of CO2 transport to establish large-scale regional fluxes of CO2 to and from the terrestrial biosphere subject to constraints imposed by direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio. Our work was coordinated with a NASA project (NASA NAGW-3151) at the University of Montana under the direction of Steven Running, and was partially funded by the Electric Power Research Institute. The primary objective of this project was to develop and test the Biome-BGC model, a global biological process model with a daily time step which simulates the water, energy and carbon budgets of plant growth. The primary product, the unique global gridded daily land temperature, and the precipitation data set which was used to drive the process model is described. The Biome-BGC model was tested by comparison with a simpler biological model driven by satellite-derived (NDVI) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and (PAR) Photosynthetically Active Radiation data and by comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations. The simple NDVI model is also described. To facilitate the comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations, a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model was used to produce predictions of atmospheric CO2 variations given CO2 fluxes owing to (NPP) Net Primary Productivity and heterotrophic respiration that were produced by the Biome-BGC model and by the NDVI model. The transport model that we used in this project, and errors associated with transport simulations, were characterized by a comparison of 12 transport models.

  1. Coastal-ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgeois, Timothée; Orr, James C.; Resplandy, Laure; Terhaar, Jens; Ethé, Christian; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-07-01

    Anthropogenic changes in atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land CO2 fluxes have been quantified extensively, but few studies have addressed the connection between land and ocean. In this transition zone, the coastal ocean, spatial and temporal data coverage is inadequate to assess its global budget. Thus we use a global ocean biogeochemical model to assess the coastal ocean's global inventory of anthropogenic CO2 and its spatial variability. We used an intermediate resolution, eddying version of the NEMO-PISCES model (ORCA05), varying from 20 to 50 km horizontally, i.e. coarse enough to allow multiple century-scale simulations but finer than coarse-resolution models (˜ 200 km) to better resolve coastal bathymetry and complex coastal currents. Here we define the coastal zone as the continental shelf area, excluding the proximal zone. Evaluation of the simulated air-sea fluxes of total CO2 for 45 coastal regions gave a correlation coefficient R of 0.8 when compared to observation-based estimates. Simulated global uptake of anthropogenic carbon results averaged 2.3 Pg C yr-1 during the years 1993-2012, consistent with previous estimates. Yet only 0.1 Pg C yr-1 of that is absorbed by the global coastal ocean. That represents 4.5 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake of the global ocean, less than the 7.5 % proportion of coastal-to-global-ocean surface areas. Coastal uptake is weakened due to a bottleneck in offshore transport, which is inadequate to reduce the mean anthropogenic carbon concentration of coastal waters to the mean level found in the open-ocean mixed layer.

  2. Tectonic earthquakes of anthropogenic origin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adushkin, V. V.

    2016-03-01

    The enhancement of seismicity induced by industrial activity in Russia in the conditions of present-day anthropization is noted. In particular, the growth in the intensity and number of strong tectonic earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3 (seismic energy 109 J) due to human activity is revealed. These man-made tectonic earthquakes have started to occur in the regions of the East European Platform which were previously aseismic. The development of such seismicity is noted in the areas of intense long-term mineral extraction due to the increasing production depth and extended mining and production. The mechanisms and generation conditions of man-made tectonic earthquakes in the anthropogenically disturbed medium with the changed geodynamical and fluid regime is discussed. The source zones of these shallow-focus tectonic earthquakes of anthropogenic origin are formed in the setting of stress state rearrangement under anthropogenic loading both near these zones and at a significant distance from them. This distance is determined by the tectonic structure of the rock mass and the character of its energy saturation, in particular, by the level of the formation pressure or pore pressure. These earthquakes occur at any time of the day, have a triggered character, and are frequently accompanied by catastrophic phenomena in the underground mines and on the surface due to the closeness to the source zones.

  3. Impacts of anthropogenic and natural sources on free tropospheric ozone over the Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Zhe; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Worden, John R.; Liu, Jane J.; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Henze, Daven K.

    2016-05-01

    Significant progress has been made in identifying the influence of different processes and emissions on the summertime enhancements of free tropospheric ozone (O3) at northern midlatitude regions. However, the exact contribution of regional emissions, chemical and transport processes to these summertime enhancements is still not well quantified. Here we focus on quantifying the influence of regional emissions on the summertime O3 enhancements over the Middle East, using updated reactive nitrogen (NOx) emissions. We then use the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model with these updated NOx emissions to show that the global total contribution of lightning NOx on middle free tropospheric O3 over the Middle East is about 2 times larger than that from global anthropogenic sources. The summertime middle free tropospheric O3 enhancement is primarily due to Asian NOx emissions, with approximately equivalent contributions from Asian anthropogenic activities and lightning. In the Middle Eastern lower free troposphere, lightning NOx from Europe and North America and anthropogenic NOx from Middle Eastern local emissions are the primary sources of O3. This work highlights the critical role of lightning NOx on northern midlatitude free tropospheric O3 and the important effect of the Asian summer monsoon on the export of Asian pollutants.

  4. Impacts of anthropogenic and natural sources on free tropospheric ozone over the Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Z.; Miyazaki, K.; Worden, J. R.; Liu, J. J.; Jones, D. B. A.; Henze, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    Significant progress has been made in identifying the influence of different processes and emissions on the summertime enhancements of free tropospheric ozone (O3) at northern mid-latitude regions. However, the exact contribution of regional emissions and chemical processing to these summertime enhancements is still not well quantified. Here we focus on quantifying the influence of regional emissions on the summertime O3 enhancements over the Middle East. We use updated reactive nitrogen (NOx) emissions from an ensemble Kalman Filter that assimilates satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), O3, and carbon monoxide (CO) to provide an improved estimate of O3 precursor emissions. We then use the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model with these updated NOx emissions to show that the global total contribution of lightning NOx on middle free tropospheric O3 over the Middle East is about three times larger than that from global anthropogenic sources. The summertime free tropospheric O3 enhancement is primarily due to Asian NOx emissions, with approximately equivalent contributions from Asian anthropogenic activities and lightning. In the Middle Eastern lower free troposphere, emissions from European and North American anthropogenic activities and from lightning NOx are the primary sources of O3. This work highlights the critical role of lightning NOx on northern mid-latitude free tropospheric O3 and the important effect of the Asian summer monsoon on the export of Asian pollutants.

  5. Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

    2008-01-01

    The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

  6. Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.; Liu, J.; Chen, B.; Nasiri, S. L.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic dusts are those produced by human activities on disturbed soils, which are mainly cropland, pasture, and urbanized regions and are a subset of the total dust load which includes natural sources from desert regions. Our knowledge of anthropogenic dusts is still very limited due to a lack of data on source distribution and magnitude, and on their effect on radiative forcing which may be comparable to other anthropogenic aerosols. To understand the contribution of anthropogenic dust to the total global dust load and its effect on radiative transfer and climate, it is important to identify them from total dust. In this study, a new technique for distinguishing anthropogenic dust from natural dust is proposed by using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) dust and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height retrievals along with a land use dataset. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Results reveal that local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 25% of the global continental dust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 53% come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. Annual mean anthropogenic dust column burden (DCB) values range from 0.42 g m-2 with a maximum in India to 0.12 g m-2 with a minimum in North America. A better understanding of anthropogenic dust emission will enable us to focus on human activities in these critical regions and with such knowledge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to explore the effects of anthropogenic emission on radiative forcing, climate change and air quality in the future.

  7. The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2

    SciTech Connect

    Sabine, Chris; Feely, R. A.; Gruber, N.; Key, Robert; Lee, K.; Bullister, J.L.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wong, C. S.; Wallace, D.W.R.; Tilbrook, B.; Millero, F. J.; Peng, T.-H.; Kozyr, Alexander; Ono, Tsueno

    2004-01-01

    Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for ~48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.

  8. Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J. P.; Liu, J. J.; Chen, B.; Nasiri, S. L.

    2015-10-01

    Anthropogenic dusts are those produced by human activities on disturbed soils, which are mainly cropland, pastureland, and urbanized regions, and are a subset of the total dust load which includes natural sources from desert regions. Our knowledge of anthropogenic dusts is still very limited due to a lack of data. To understand the contribution of anthropogenic dust to the total global dust load, it is important to identify it apart from total dust. In this study, a new technique for distinguishing anthropogenic dust from natural dust is proposed by using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) dust and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height retrievals along with a land use data set. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Results reveal that local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 25 % of the global continental dust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 53 % come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. Annual mean anthropogenic dust column burden (DCB) values range from 0.42 g m-2, with a maximum in India, to 0.12 g m-2, with a minimum in North America. A better understanding of anthropogenic dust emission will enable us to focus on human activities in these critical regions and with such knowledge we will be more able to improve global dust models and to explore the effects of anthropogenic emission on radiative forcing, climate change, and air quality in the future.

  9. Improved Global Soft Decision Incorporating Second-Order Conditional MAP in Speech Enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kum, Jong-Mo; Chang, Joon-Hyuk

    In this paper, we propose a novel method based on the second-order conditional maximum a posteriori (CMAP) to improve the performance of the global soft decision in speech enhancement. The conventional global soft decision scheme is found through investigation to have a disadvantage in that the global speech absence probability (GSAP) in that scheme is adjusted by a fixed parameter, which could be a restrictive assumption in the consecutive occurrences of speech frames. To address this problem, we devise a method to incorporate the second-order CMAP in determining the GSAP, which is clearly different from the previous approach in that not only current observation but also the speech activity decisions of the previous two frames are exploited. Performances of the proposed method are evaluated by a number of tests in various environments and show better results than previous work.

  10. Ozone recovery may enhance global warming in the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Y.; Hu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Observations show a stabilization or weak increasing of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with global mean magnitudes of about 0.41 K for A1B scenario and about 0.2 K for A2 and B1 scenarios over the period of 2001-2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K, 0.08 K and 0.13 K for A1B, A2, and B1 over 2001-2050, respectively.

  11. Enhancing the resolution of sea ice in a global ocean GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stössel, Achim; Kim, Joong-Tae

    Open water in sea ice, such as leads and polynyas, has a considerable impact on the long-term global deep-ocean properties and circulation. Its representation in ocean general circulation models (GCMs) that are designed for studies of the long-term thermohaline circulation, however, bears large uncertainties. Here, an attempt has been made to reduce such uncertainties by enhancing the resolution of the sea-ice component, while keeping the ocean component at coarse resolution to preserve the necessary efficiency of the GCM. In this study, the higher-resolved sea-ice component has been restricted to the Southern Ocean. Compared to the original model, the new version yields more detailed structures, such as a more detailed representation of coastal polynyas, a realistically sharp ice edge, and an overall enhanced lead fraction. The latter gives rise to a somewhat enhanced rate of Antarctic Bottom Water formation through enhanced near-boundary convection, which is reflected in slightly cooler and fresher global deep-ocean properties and a reduced Antarctic Circumpolar Current as a result of reduced open-ocean convection. Sensitivity studies reveal that it is not the overall enhanced lead fraction but rather the coastal katabatic winds that lead to this behaviour of the higher-resolution model. Artifacts resulting from the coarse-grid coastline were minimized in a separate model version where fine surface grid cells of fast ice were introduced following the fine-grid land/ice-shelf—sea-ice/ocean boundary of satellite-derived microwave data. This study represents an intermediate step toward resolving the sea-ice component of a global coarse-resolution ocean GCM on a scale of about 30 km.

  12. Geomorphology of anthropogenic landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofia, Giulia; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    The construction of urban areas and the development of road networks leave a significant signature on the Earth surface, providing a geomorphological evidence to support the idea that humans are nowadays a geomorphic agent having deep effects on the morphological organization of the landscape. The reconstruction or identification of anthropogenic topographies, therefore, provides a mechanism for quantifying anthropogenic changes to the landscape systems in the Anthropocene. Following this research line, the present study tests the effectiveness of a recently published topographic index, the Slope Local Length of Autocorrelation (SLLAC, Sofia et al. 2014) to portrait anthropogenic geomorphology, focusing in particular on road network density, and urban complexity (UCI). At first, the research considers the increasing of anthropic structures and the resulting changes in the SLLAC and in two derived parameters (mean SLLAC per km2 and SLLAC roughness, or Surface Peak Curvature -Spc). As a second step, considering the SLLAC derived indices, the anthropogenic geomorphology is automatically depicted using a k-means clustering algorithm. In general, the increasing of road network density or of the UCI is positively correlated to the mean SLLAC per km2, while the Spc is negatively correlated to the increasing of the anthropic structures. Areas presenting different road network organization are effectively captured considering multiple combinations of the defined parameters. Landscapes with small scattered towns, and a network with long roads in a dendritic shape (with hierarchical branching) are characterized simultaneously by high mean SLLAC and low Spc. Large and complex urban areas served by rectilinear networks with numerous short straight lines and right angles, have either a maximized mean SLLAC or a minimized Spc or both. In all cases, the anthropogenic landscape identified by the procedure is comparable to the ones identified manually from orthophoto, with the

  13. Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Benchmarking Airline Operational Performance in Highly Regulated Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowen, Brent D.; Headley, Dean E.; Kane, Karisa D.

    1998-01-01

    Enhancing competitiveness in the global airline industry is at the forefront of attention with airlines, government, and the flying public. The seemingly unchecked growth of major airline alliances is heralded as an enhancement to global competition. However, like many mega-conglomerates, mega-airlines will face complications driven by size regardless of the many recitations of enhanced efficiency. Outlined herein is a conceptual model to serve as a decision tool for policy-makers, managers, and consumers of airline services. This model is developed using public data for the United States (U.S.) major airline industry available from the U/S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and other public and private sector sources. Data points include number of accidents, pilot deviations, operational performance indicators, flight problems, and other factors. Data from these sources provide opportunity to develop a model based on a complex dot product equation of two vectors. A row vector is weighted for importance by a key informant panel of government, industry, and consumer experts, while a column vector is established with the factor value. The resulting equation, known as the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR), where Q is quality, C is weight, and V is the value of the variables, is stated Q=C[i1-19] x V[i1-19]. Looking at historical patterns of AQR results provides the basis for establishment of an industry benchmark for the purpose of enhancing airline operational performance. A 7 year average of overall operational performance provides the resulting benchmark indicator. Applications from this example can be applied to the many competitive environments of the global industry and assist policy-makers faced with rapidly changing regulatory challenges.

  14. Histone Modifications at Human Enhancers Reflect Global Cell Type-Specific Gene Expression

    PubMed Central

    Heintzman, Nathaniel D.; Hon, Gary C.; Hawkins, R. David; Kheradpour, Pouya; Stark, Alexander; Harp, Lindsey F.; Ye, Zhen; Lee, Leonard K.; Stuart, Rhona K.; Ching, Christina W.; Ching, Keith A.; Antosiewicz, Jessica E.; Liu, Hui; Zhang, Xinmin; Green, Roland D.; Stewart, Ron; Thomson, James A.; Crawford, Gregory E.; Kellis, Manolis; Ren, Bing

    2010-01-01

    The human body is composed of diverse cell types with distinct functions. While it is known that lineage specification depends on cell specific gene expression, which in turn is driven by promoters, enhancers, insulators and other cis-regulatory DNA sequences for each gene1–3, the relative roles of these regulatory elements in this process is not clear. We have previously developed a chromatin immunoprecipitation-based microarray method (ChIP-chip) to locate promoters, enhancers, and insulators in the human genome4–6. Here, we use the same approach to identify these elements in multiple cell types and investigated their roles in cell type-specific gene expression. We observed that chromatin state at promoters and CTCF-binding at insulators are largely invariant across diverse cell types. By contrast, enhancers are marked with highly cell type-specific histone modification patterns, strongly correlate to cell type-specific gene expression programs on a global scale, and are functionally active in a cell type-specific manner. Our results defined over 55,000 potential transcriptional enhancers in the human genome, significantly expanding the current catalog of human enhancers and highlighting the role of these elements in cell type-specific gene expression. PMID:19295514

  15. Enhanced or Weakened Western North Pacific Subtropical High under Global Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chao; Zhou, Tianjun; Lin, Ailan; Wu, Bo; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin

    2015-11-01

    The Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) regulates East Asian climate in summer. Anomalous WNPSH causes floods, droughts and heat waves in China, Japan and Korea. The potential change of the WNPSH under global warming is concerned by Asian people, but whether the WNPSH would be enhanced or weakened remains inconclusive. Based on the multi-model climate change projection from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidences that the WNPSH tends to weaken and retreat eastward in the mid-troposphere in response to global warming, accompanied by an eastward expansion of East Asian rain belt along the northwestern flank of WNPSH. Weakened meridional temperature gradient on the northern flank of WNPSH and the associated thermal wind account for the weakened WNPSH in the mid troposphere. We recommend the WNPSH be measured by eddy geopotential height (He) instead of traditionally used geopotential height, especially in climate change studies.

  16. The nonlinear thermodynamics of meteors, noctilucent clouds, enhanced airglow and global atmospheric circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajchl, J.

    1987-01-01

    Two types of fundamental topological junctions of elements are deduced from a nonlinear thermodynamical model. Using this scheme, the possibility of a causal relation between fireballs and faint meteors as nonlinear sources on the one hand, and noctilucent clouds (NC) and Hoffmeister's enhanced airglow (EA) as complementary formative processes in the middle atmosphere and ionosphere, on the other hand, is examined. The principal role of the global atmospheric circulation in this relation is demonstrated. Such circulation in the mesosphere appears to prevent the neutral dust dissipated by fireballs from becoming an efficient agent in NLC generation. In this case, the behavior of ionized material deposited by both the bright and faint meteors is more probably controlled, as shown from the annual variation of the E sub s layer by the darkness of lunar eclipses and the global circulation of the lower thermosphere. The role of fireballs and neutral dust might be more significant as a source of EA phenomenon.

  17. Enhanced or Weakened Western North Pacific Subtropical High under Global Warming?

    PubMed

    He, Chao; Zhou, Tianjun; Lin, Ailan; Wu, Bo; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin

    2015-01-01

    The Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) regulates East Asian climate in summer. Anomalous WNPSH causes floods, droughts and heat waves in China, Japan and Korea. The potential change of the WNPSH under global warming is concerned by Asian people, but whether the WNPSH would be enhanced or weakened remains inconclusive. Based on the multi-model climate change projection from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidences that the WNPSH tends to weaken and retreat eastward in the mid-troposphere in response to global warming, accompanied by an eastward expansion of East Asian rain belt along the northwestern flank of WNPSH. Weakened meridional temperature gradient on the northern flank of WNPSH and the associated thermal wind account for the weakened WNPSH in the mid troposphere. We recommend the WNPSH be measured by eddy geopotential height (He) instead of traditionally used geopotential height, especially in climate change studies. PMID:26608354

  18. The enhanced NOAA global land dataset from the advanced very high resolution radiometer

    SciTech Connect

    Gutman, G.; Tarpley, D.; Ignatov, A.

    1995-07-01

    Global mapped data of reflected radiation in the visible (0.63 {mu}m) and near-infrared (0.85 {mu}m) wavebands on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites have been collected as the global vegetation index (GVI) dataset since 1982. Its primary objective has been vegetation studies (hence its title) using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculated from the visible and near-IR data. The second-generation GVI, which started in April 1985, has also included brightness temperatures in the thermal IR (11 and 12 {mu}m) and the associated observation-illumination geometry. This multiyear, multispectral, multisatellite dataset is a unique tool for global land studies. At the same time, it raises challenging remote sensing and data management problems with respect to uniformity in time, enhancement of signal-to-noise ratio, retrieval of geophysical parameters from satellite radiances, and large data volumes. The authors explored a four-level generic structure for processing AVHRR data-the first two levels being remote sensing oriented and the other two directed at environmental studies-and will describe the present status of each level. The uniformity of GVI data was improved by applying an updated calibration, and noise was reduced by applying a more accurate cloud-screening procedure. In addition to the enhanced weekly data (recalibrated with appended quality/cloud flags), the available land environmental products include monthly 0-15{degrees}-resolution global maps of top-of-the-atmosphere visible and near-IR reflectances, NDVI, brightness temperatures, and a precipitable water index for April 1985-September 1994. For the first time, a 5-yr monthly climatology (means and standard deviations) of each quantity was produced. These products show strong potential for detecting and analyzing large-scale spatial and seasonal land variability. 57 refs., 8 figs.

  19. The Global Nitrogen Story

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galloway, J. N.

    2001-05-01

    In the absence of human activities, biotic nitrogen fixation is the primary source of reactive N to the environment. Over the last few decades, human activity has surpassed natural terrestrial nitrogen fixation rates by energy production (fossil fuel combustion) and food production (Haber-Bosch based fertilizer production and crop cultivation). An amount equivalent to over half of the anthropogenic N fixed each year is emitted to the atmosphere or discharged to rivers, for dispersion to environmental systems. An unknown amount of this anthropogenic N is accumulating in the environment resulting in a enhanced greenhouse effect, acid deposition, photochemical smog, stratospheric ozone depletion and eutrophication of fresh and marine waters. This paper will assess the state of knowledge on the global N cycle and present a context in which to place the impacts of humans on nitrogen cycling at regional scales.

  20. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  1. Geoheritage, Geodiversity and natural landscape enhanced and protected through anthropogenic activity: a case study using the Chaîne des Puys and Limagne Fault, Afar and Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Hagos, Miruts; Guilbaud, Marie-Noelle

    2015-04-01

    The UNESCO World Heritage (WH) committee called in 2014 for all thematic geological and volcanological studies to be revised in light of a widening gap between current dogma and the progressive geoheritage science views. We discuss question of natural sites and anthropogenic activity. The Chaîne des Puys and Limagne fault UNESCO WH project is the basis of this presentation, but we also the Afar Region of Ethiopia and UNAM campus, Mexico City. It is now difficult to find any totally 'natural' (devoid of human influence) landscape. This very definition of natural ignores that humankind is a geological force, and humans are part of the natural process. The UNESCO WH guidelines recognise this in paragraph 90: 'it is recognized that no area is totally pristine and that all natural areas are in a dynamic state, and to some extent involve contact with people'. A geological landscape, may be large enough to accommodate human occupation without significantly changing landforms: this is the case of the Chaîne des Puys and Limagne fault. Human activity works in some ways to protect geological landscape: regulating vegetation and erosion. The aesthetic nature of humans may work to enhance the landscape's visibility by organisation of land use, and ceremonial use based on the sense of place. Humans also exercise economic activity such as quarrying and mining, which if uncontrolled can seriously modify a landscape. However, isolated works may not have an impact, or may even enhance the value of the site by uncovering geological features that would not naturally be seen. In the Chaîne des Puys only 0,3% of the land surface has been worked by artisanal methods and certain sites, like the Lemptégy volcano have been extracted with the view of enhancing the landscape's scientific value without detracting from the aesthetic. The site preserves its natural, scientific and aesthetic qualities, because of the human presence. The local population have always been and continue to be

  2. Modification of global precipitation data for enhanced hydrologic modeling of tropical montane watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauch, Michael; Kumar, Rohini; Eisner, Stephanie; Mulligan, Mark; Reinhardt, Julia; Samaniego, Luis; Santini, William; Vetter, Tobias; Friesen, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Global gridded precipitation is an essential driving input for hydrologic models to simulate runoff dynamics in large river basins. However, the data often fail to adequately represent precipitation variability in mountainous regions due to orographic effects and sparse and highly uncertain gauge data. Water balance simulations in tropical montane regions covered by cloud forests are especially challenging because of the additional water input from cloud water interception. The ISI-MIP2 hydrologic model ensemble encountered these problems for Andean sub-basins of the Upper Amazon Basin, where all models significantly underestimated observed runoff. In this paper, we propose simple yet plausible ways to adjust global precipitation data provided by WFDEI, the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis, for tropical montane watersheds. The modifications were based on plausible reasoning and freely available tropics-wide data: (i) a high-resolution climatology of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and (ii) the percentage of tropical montane cloud forest cover. Using the modified precipitation data, runoff predictions significantly improved for all hydrologic models considered. The precipitation adjustment methods presented here have the potential to enhance other global precipitation products for hydrologic model applications in the Upper Amazon Basin as well as in other tropical montane watersheds.

  3. Anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Budyko, M.I.; Izreal, Yu.A.

    1991-01-01

    The climate modeling community would agree that the present generation of theoretical models cannot adequately answer important question about the climatic implications of increasing concentrations of CO[sub 2] and other greenhouse gases. Society, however, is presently deciding by its action, or inaction, the policies that will deal with the extent and results of our collective flatulence. In this situation, an engineering approach to estimating the developing pattern of anthropogenic climate change is appropriate. For example, Budyko has argued that, while scientists may have made great advances in modelling the flow around an airfoil, engineers make extensive use of empirical equations and measurements to design airplanes that fly. Budyko and Izreal have produced an encyclopedic treatise summarizing the results of Soviet researchers in applying empirical and semiempirical methods to estimating future climatic patterns, and some of their ensuring effects. These techniques consist mainly of statistical relationships derived from 1850-1950 network data and of patterns revealed by analysis of paleoclimatic data. An important part of the Soviet effort in anthropogenic climate-change studies is empirical techniques that represent independent verification of the results of theoretical climate models.

  4. Enhancing the Emotional Wellbeing of Perinatally HIV Infected Youth across Global Contexts

    PubMed Central

    Small, Latoya; Mercado, Micaela; Gopalan, Priya; Pardo, Gisselle; Ann Mellins, Claude; McKay, Mary McKernan

    2014-01-01

    Increased access to antiretroviral treatment worldwide makes it more possible for children diagnosed with HIV before their 15th birthday to age into adolescence and beyond. Many HIV+ youth navigate stressors including poverty and resource scarcity, which may converge to produce emotional distress. For over a decade, CHAMP (Collaborative HIV Prevention and Adolescent Mental Health Project) investigators partnered with youth, caregivers, providers and community stakeholders to address the health, mental health and risk taking behaviors of perinatally HIV-infected youth. This paper explores the mental health needs of aging cohorts of HIV+ youth, across three global contexts, New York (U.S.), Buenos Aires (Argentina), and KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), to inform the development and implementation of combination HIV care and prevention supports for HIV+ youth. Methods Analysis of data pooled across three countries involving HIV+ early adolescents and their caregivers over time (baseline and three month follow-up) was conducted. Univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to data from standardized measures used across sites to identify mental health needs of youth participants. The impact of the site specific versions of a family-strengthening intervention, CHAMP+U.S., CHAMP+Argentina, CHAMP+SA, was also examined relative to a randomized standard of care (SOC) comparison condition. Results Analyses revealed mental health resilience in a large proportion of HIV+ youth, particularly behavioral functioning and overall mental health. Yet, significant numbers of caregivers across country contexts reported impaired child emotional and prosocial wellbeing. Significant site differences emerged at baseline. Involvement in the CHAMP+ Family Program was related to significant improvement in emotional wellbeing and a trend towards enhanced prosocial behavior relative to SOC across global sites. Conclusions Ongoing partnerships with youth, family and provider stakeholders across

  5. Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850-2005

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S. J.; Van Aardenne, J.; Klimont, Z.; Andres, Robert Joseph; Volke, A.; Delgado Arias, S

    2011-01-01

    Sulfur aerosols impact human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and global and regional climate. A new annual estimate of anthropogenic global and regional sulfur dioxide emissions has been constructed spanning the period 1850 2005 using a bottom-up mass balance method, calibrated to country-level inventory data. Global emissions peaked in the early 1970s and decreased until 2000, with an increase in recent years due to increased emissions in China, international shipping, and developing countries in general. An uncertainty analysis was conducted including both random and systemic uncertainties. The overall global uncertainty in sulfur dioxide emissions is relatively small, but regional uncertainties ranged up to 30%. The largest contributors to uncertainty at present are emissions from China and international shipping. Emissions were distributed on a 0.5 grid by sector for use in coordinated climate model experiments.

  6. Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: 1850-2005

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; van Aardenne, John; Klimont, Z.; Andres, Robert; Volke, April C.; Delgado Arias, Sabrina

    2011-01-02

    Sulfur aerosols impact human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and global and regional climate. A new annual estimate of anthropogenic global and regional sulfur dioxide emissions has been constructed spanning the period 1850 - 2005. A combination of mass balance and best available inventory data was used in order to achieve the most accurate estimate possible. Global emissions peaked in the early 1970s and decreased until 2000, with an increase in recent years due to increased emissions in China, international shipping, and developing countries in general. An uncertainty analysis was conducted including both random and systemic uncertainties. The overall global uncertainty in sulfur dioxide emissions is relatively small, but regional uncertainties of up to 30% were found. The largest contributors to uncertainty at present are emissions from China and international shipping.

  7. Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Erle C

    2011-03-13

    Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve. PMID:21282158

  8. Inadvertent Climate Modification Due to Anthropogenic Lead

    SciTech Connect

    Cziczo, Daniel J.; Stetzer, Olaf; Worringen, Annette; Ebert, Martin; Weinbruch, Stephan; Kamphus, M.; Gallavardin, S. J.; Curtius, J.; Borrmann, S.; Froyd, Karl D.; Mertes, S.; Mohler, Ottmar; Lohmann, U.

    2009-05-01

    The relationship between atmospheric particulate matter and the formation of clouds is among the most uncertain aspects of our current understanding of climate change1. One specific question that remains unanswered is how anthropogenic particulate emissions are affecting the nucleation of ice crystals. Satellites show ice clouds cover more than a third of the globe2 and models suggest that ice nucleation initiates the majority of terrestrial precipitation3. It is therefore not possible to adequately understand either climate change or the global water cycle without understanding ice nucleation. Here we show that lead-containing particles are among the most efficient ice nucleating substances commonly found in the atmosphere. Field observations were conducted with mass spectrometry and electron microscopy at two remote stations on different continents, far removed from local emissions. Laboratory studies within two cloud chambers using controlled experimental conditions support the field data. Because the dominate sources of particulate lead are anthropogenic emissions such as aviation fuel, power generation, smelting, and the re-suspension of residue from tetra-ethyl leaded gasoline4, it is likely that cloud formation and precipitation have been affected when compared to pre-industrial times. A global climate model comparing pre-industrial and anthropogenically perturbed conditions shows that lead-containing particles may be increasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 0.2 to 0.8 W m-2, thereby offsetting a portion of the warming attributed to greenhouse gases1.

  9. Identification of anthropogenic and natural dust sources using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue level 2 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ginoux, Paul; Garbuzov, Dmitri; Hsu, N. Christina

    2010-03-01

    Mineral dust interacts with radiation and impacts both the regional and global climate. The relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic dust sources, however, remains largely uncertain. Although human activities disturb soils and therefore enhance wind erosion, their contribution to global dust emission has never been directly evaluated because of a lack of data. The retrieval of aerosol properties over land, including deserts, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Deep Blue algorithm makes the first direct characterization of the origin of individual sources possible. In order to separate freshly emitted dust from other aerosol types and aged dust particles, the spectral dependence of the single scattering albedo and the Angstrom wavelength exponent are used. Four years of data from the eastern part of West Africa, which includes one of the most active natural dust sources and the highest population density on the continent, are processed. Sources are identified on the basis of the persistence of significant aerosol optical depth from freshly emitted dust, and the origin is characterized as natural or anthropogenic on the basis of a land use data set. Our results indicate that although anthropogenic dust is observed less frequently and with lower optical depth than dust from natural sources in this particular region, it occupies a large area covering most of northern Nigeria and southern Chad, around Lake Chad. In addition, smaller anthropogenic sources are found as far south as 5° of latitude north, well outside the domain of most dust source inventories.

  10. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2.

    PubMed

    Sabine, Christopher L; Feely, Richard A; Gruber, Nicolas; Key, Robert M; Lee, Kitack; Bullister, John L; Wanninkhof, Rik; Wong, C S; Wallace, Douglas W R; Tilbrook, Bronte; Millero, Frank J; Peng, Tsung-Hung; Kozyr, Alexander; Ono, Tsueno; Rios, Aida F

    2004-07-16

    Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 +/- 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for approximately 48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 +/- 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential. PMID:15256665

  11. Using support vector machine and dynamic parameter encoding to enhance global optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Z.; Chen, X.; Liu, C.; Huang, K.

    2016-05-01

    This study presents an approach which combines support vector machine (SVM) and dynamic parameter encoding (DPE) to enhance the run-time performance of global optimization with time-consuming fitness function evaluations. SVMs are used as surrogate models to partly substitute for fitness evaluations. To reduce the computation time and guarantee correct convergence, this work proposes a novel strategy to adaptively adjust the number of fitness evaluations needed according to the approximate error of the surrogate model. Meanwhile, DPE is employed to compress the solution space, so that it not only accelerates the convergence but also decreases the approximate error. Numerical results of optimizing a few benchmark functions and an antenna in a practical application are presented, which verify the feasibility, efficiency and robustness of the proposed approach.

  12. Global electrosensory oscillations enhance directional responses of midbrain neurons in eigenmannia.

    PubMed

    Ramcharitar, J U; Tan, E W; Fortune, E S

    2006-11-01

    Eigenmannia, a genus of weakly electric fish, exhibits a specialized behavior known as the jamming avoidance response (JAR). The JAR results in a categorical difference between Eigenmannia that are in groups of conspecifics and those that are alone. Fish in groups exhibit the JAR behavior and thereby experience ongoing, global synchronous 20- to 50-Hz electrosensory oscillations, whereas solitary fish do not. Although previous work has shown that these ongoing signals do not significantly degrade electrosensory behavior, these oscillations nevertheless elicit short-term synaptic depression in midbrain circuits. Because short-term synaptic depression can have profound effects on the transmission of information through synapses, we examined the differences in intracellularly recorded responses of midbrain neurons in awake, behaving fish to moving electrosensory images under electrosensory conditions that mimic solitary fish and fish in groups. In solitary conditions, moving objects elicited Gaussian or sinusoidal postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) that commonly exhibited preferential responses to a direction of motion. Surprisingly, when the same stimulus was presented in the presence of the global oscillations, directional selectivity was increased in all neurons tested. The magnitudes of the differences in PSP amplitude for preferred and nonpreferred directions were correlated with a measure of short-term synaptic depression in both conditions. The electrosensory consequences of the JAR appear to result in an enhancement of the representation of direction of motion in midbrain neurons. The data also support a role for short-term synaptic depression in the generation and modulation of directional responses. PMID:16790600

  13. Global transcription engineering of brewer's yeast enhances the fermentation performance under high-gravity conditions.

    PubMed

    Gao, Cuijuan; Wang, Zhikun; Liang, Quanfeng; Qi, Qingsheng

    2010-08-01

    Global transcription engineering was developed as a tool to reprogram gene transcription for eliciting new phenotypes important for technological applications (Science 2006, 314(5805):1565-1568). A recent report indicated that the beneficial growth advantage of yeast cells expressing the SPT15-300 mutation is the result of enhanced uptake and/or improved utilization of leucine and thus was seen only on defined media with low concentrations of leucine (Appl Environ Microbiol 2009, 75(19):6055-6061). Further investigation towards a leucine-prototrophic strain of industrial lager brewer's yeast indicated that integration one copy of SPT15-300 in SPT15 allele, however, did lead to an increased ethanol tolerance on complex rich medium at high gravity fermentation condition. Under brewing conditions, the SPT15-300 mutant produced 80.78 g/L ethanol from 200 g/L carbohydrates after 384 h, almost twice as much as that of the wild-type strain. The results convinced us that the effect of global regulator modification of yeast is at multi-genes level and is extremely complicated. PMID:20461507

  14. Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

  15. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

    PubMed Central

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

    2011-01-01

    Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

  16. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

    PubMed

    Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

    2011-07-19

    Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

  17. Variational contrast enhancement guided by global and local contrast measurements for single-image defogging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Li; Bi, Du-Yan; He, Lin-Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The visibility of images captured in foggy conditions is impaired severely by a decrease in the contrasts of objects and veiling with a characteristic gray hue, which may limit the performance of visual applications out of doors. Contrast enhancement together with color restoration is a challenging mission for conventional fog-removal methods, as the degrading effect of fog is largely dependent on scene depth information. Nowadays, people change their minds by establishing a variational framework for contrast enhancement based on a physically based analytical model, unexpectedly resulting in color distortion, dark-patch distortion, or fuzzy features of local regions. Unlike previous work, our method treats an atmospheric veil as a scattering disturbance and formulates a foggy image as an energy functional minimization to estimate direct attenuation, originating from the work of image denoising. In addition to a global contrast measurement based on a total variation norm, an additional local measurement is designed in that optimal problem for the purpose of digging out more local details as well as suppressing dark-patch distortion. Moreover, we estimate the airlight precisely by maximization with a geometric constraint and a natural image prior in order to protect the faithfulness of the scene color. With the estimated direct attenuation and airlight, the fog-free image can be restored. Finally, our method is tested on several benchmark and realistic images evaluated by two assessment approaches. The experimental results imply that our proposed method works well compared with the state-of-the-art defogging methods.

  18. Enhancement of the Feature Extraction Capability in Global Damage Detection Using Wavelet Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saleeb, Atef F.; Ponnaluru, Gopi Krishna

    2006-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to assess the specific capabilities of the defect energy parameter technique for global damage detection developed by Saleeb and coworkers. The feature extraction is the most important capability in any damage-detection technique. Features are any parameters extracted from the processed measurement data in order to enhance damage detection. The damage feature extraction capability was studied extensively by analyzing various simulation results. The practical significance in structural health monitoring is that the detection at early stages of small-size defects is always desirable. The amount of changes in the structure's response due to these small defects was determined to show the needed level of accuracy in the experimental methods. The arrangement of fine/extensive sensor network to measure required data for the detection is an "unlimited" ability, but there is a difficulty to place extensive number of sensors on a structure. Therefore, an investigation was conducted using the measurements of coarse sensor network. The white and the pink noises, which cover most of the frequency ranges that are typically encountered in the many measuring devices used (e.g., accelerometers, strain gauges, etc.) are added to the displacements to investigate the effect of noisy measurements in the detection technique. The noisy displacements and the noisy damage parameter values are used to study the signal feature reconstruction using wavelets. The enhancement of the feature extraction capability was successfully achieved by the wavelet theory.

  19. Dopaminergic enhancement of local food seeking is under global homeostatic control

    PubMed Central

    Beeler, Jeff A.; Frazier, Cristianne R.M.; Zhuang, Xiaoxi

    2011-01-01

    Recent work has implicated dopaminergic mechanisms in overeating and obesity with some researchers suggesting parallels between the dopamine dysregulation associated with addiction and an analogous dysregulation in obesity. The precise role of dopamine in mediating reward and reinforcement, however, remains controversial. In contrast to drugs of abuse, pursuit of a natural reward, such as food, is regulated by homeostatic processes that putatively maintain a stable energy balance keeping unrestrained consumption and reward pursuit in check. Understanding how the reward system is constrained by or escapes homeostatic regulation is a critical question. The widespread use of food restriction to motivate animal subjects in behavior paradigms precludes investigation of this relationship as the homeostatic system is locked into deficit mode. In the present study, we examine the role of dopamine in modulating adaptive feeding behavior in semi-naturalistic home cage paradigms where mice earn all their food from lever pressing. We compared consumption and meal patterning between hyperdopaminergic dopamine transporter knock-down mice (DATkd) with wild-type (WT) in two paradigms that introduce escalating costs for procuring food. We found that hyperdopaminergic mice exhibited similar demand elasticity, weight loss and energy balance in response to cost. However, the DATkd show clear differences in meal patterning. Consistent with expectations of enhanced motivation, elevated dopamine increased meal size and reduced intrameal cost sensitivity. Nonetheless, this did not alter overall energy balance. We conclude that elevated dopamine enhances incentive or willingness to work locally within meals without shifting energy balance, enhancing global food-seeking or generating an energy surplus. PMID:22118191

  20. Using message brokering and data mediation on earth science data to enhance global maritime situational awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delaney, C.; Alessandrini, A.; Greidanus, H.

    2016-04-01

    Maritime Situational Awareness is the understanding of anything associated with the maritime domain that could impact the security, safety, economy, or environment. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has developed an in-house data collection, data analysis and data visualiztion facility, known as the Blue Hub. The Blue Hub operates as a research and development platform for integrated maritime surveillance and maritime situational awareness. It has global coverage and has been applied, for example, to support counter-piracy around Africa, to investigate fishing activity and to monitor the growing ship traffic in the Arctic. In order to improve maritime awareness and support risk assessment, the JRC has started to integrate data from the marine and atmosheric science community. In particular the JRC is interested in using forecasts from operational ocean models and weather models. For the Blue Hub a new type of data server, called ERDDAP, that performs message brokering and data mediation has become an essential tool for the accessing of ocean forecast data as quickly as possible in easy to use formats. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA) is making global oceanography and weather data available through the Environmental Research Division's Data Access Program (ERDDAP) data broker. ERDDAP provides RESTful machine to machine communication, data brokering and data mediation by converting data to a number of standard and developer friendly formats, including some Open Geospatial Consortium formats. In this paper, we demonstrate how data brokering and mediation is making complex scientific data accessible. We show how such data is being integrated into the Blue Hub system to enhance maritime situational awareness.

  1. Challenging, Eye-Opening, and Changing U.S. Teacher Training in Korea: Creating Experiences That Will Enhance Global Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oh, Kevin; Nussli, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    This case study explored the short-term international experience of pre-service teachers to create and enhance global perspectives. These teachers (n = 5), all female graduate students at a university in the U.S., were fully immersed in a foreign culture for three weeks while teaching English to primary and secondary students in Korea. Pre-,…

  2. Massive Sorghum Collection Genotyped with SSR Markers to Enhance Use of Global Genetic Resources

    PubMed Central

    Bouchet, Sophie; Chantereau, Jacques; Deu, Monique; Gardes, Laetitia; Noyer, Jean-Louis; Rami, Jean-François; Rivallan, Ronan; Li, Yu; Lu, Ping; Wang, Tianyu; Folkertsma, Rolf T.; Arnaud, Elizabeth; Upadhyaya, Hari D.; Glaszmann, Jean-Christophe; Hash, C. Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Large ex situ collections require approaches for sampling manageable amounts of germplasm for in-depth characterization and use. We present here a large diversity survey in sorghum with 3367 accessions and 41 reference nuclear SSR markers. Of 19 alleles on average per locus, the largest numbers of alleles were concentrated in central and eastern Africa. Cultivated sorghum appeared structured according to geographic regions and race within region. A total of 13 groups of variable size were distinguished. The peripheral groups in western Africa, southern Africa and eastern Asia were the most homogeneous and clearly differentiated. Except for Kafir, there was little correspondence between races and marker-based groups. Bicolor, Caudatum, Durra and Guinea types were each dispersed in three groups or more. Races should therefore better be referred to as morphotypes. Wild and weedy accessions were very diverse and scattered among cultivated samples, reinforcing the idea that large gene-flow exists between the different compartments. Our study provides an entry to global sorghum germplasm collections. Our reference marker kit can serve to aggregate additional studies and enhance international collaboration. We propose a core reference set in order to facilitate integrated phenotyping experiments towards refined functional understanding of sorghum diversity. PMID:23565161

  3. Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Duo; Wu, Qigang

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic forcings have contributed to global and regional warming in the last few decades and likely affected terrestrial precipitation. Here we examine changes in major Köppen climate classes from gridded observed data and their uncertainties due to internal climate variability using control simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950–2010, and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones, shrinkage in polar and midlatitude continental climates, poleward shifts in temperate, continental and polar climates, and increasing average elevation of tropical and polar climates. Using CMIP5 multi-model averaged historical simulations forced by observed anthropogenic and natural, or natural only, forcing components, we find that these changes of climate types since 1950 cannot be explained as natural variations but are driven by anthropogenic factors. PMID:26316255

  4. Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kartika Lestari, R.; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Kimoto, Masahide

    2014-10-01

    Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960-2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ˜25% increase in severe drought events from 1951-2000 to 2001-2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention.

  5. An updated anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Atlantic Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, K.; Choi, S.-D.; Park, G.-H.; Peng, T.-H.; Key, Robert; Sabine, Chris; Feely, R. A.; Bullister, J.L.; Millero, F. J.; Kozyr, Alexander

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the basin-wide inventory of anthropogenic CO2 in the Atlantic Ocean based on high-quality inorganic carbon, alkalinity, chlorofluorocarbon, and nutrient data collected during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program, the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), and the Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Study (OACES) surveys of the Atlantic Ocean between 1990 and 1998. Anthropogenic CO2 was separated from the large pool of dissolved inorganic carbon using an extended version of the DC* method originally developed by Gruber et al. [1996]. The extension of the method includes the use of an optimum multiparameter analysis to determine the relative contributions from various source water types to the sample on an isopycnal surface. Total inventories of anthropogenic CO2 in the Atlantic Ocean are highest in the subtropical regions at 20 40, whereas anthropogenic CO2 penetrates the deepest in high-latitude regions (>40N). The deeper penetration at high northern latitudes is largely due to the formation of deep water that feeds the Deep Western Boundary Current, which transports anthropogenic CO2 into the interior. In contrast, waters south of 50S in the Southern Ocean contain little anthropogenic CO2. Analysis of the data collected during the 1990 1998 period yielded a total anthropogenic CO2 inventory of 28.4 4.7 Pg C in the North Atlantic (equator-70N) and of 18.5 3.9 Pg C in the South Atlantic (equator-70S). These estimated basin-wide inventories of anthropogenic CO2 are in good agreement with previous estimates obtained by Gruber [1998], after accounting for the difference in observational periods. Our calculation of the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Atlantic Ocean, in conjunction with the inventories calculated previously for the Indian Ocean [Sabine et al., 1999] and for the Pacific Ocean [Sabine et al., 2002], yields a global anthropogenic CO2 inventory of 112 17 Pg C that has accumulated

  6. Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

    2015-03-31

    California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

  7. Anthropogenic Warming Has Increased Drought Risk In California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ˜100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

  8. Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

    PubMed Central

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

    2015-01-01

    California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

  9. Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Evolution of U.S. Droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Cazavilan, E. J.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols interact with solar radiation to influence regional to global climate. Trends in aerosol concentrations have impacted the evolution of surface air temperatures and the hydrological cycle over the last 150 years, but the magnitude of influence and any role in shaping extreme events remains uncertain. We use a general circulation model (GISS GCM ModelE) to study the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the formation of two potential U.S. droughts. Two periods are analyzed, the 1930s Dust Bowl and the 1970s "missed drought". Each period realized ocean conditions ripe for the formation of central U.S. drought, but experienced differing composition and amounts of anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Simulations forced solely by observed sea surface temperature and sea ice distributions reveal drier and warmer conditions in the central U.S. (annual decreases of up to 0.5 mm/day and warming of 0.5°C). We find that anthropogenic aerosols of the 1930s, containing a significant warming component from U.S. black carbon, exacerbated the warm conditions (0.2°C) and provided slightly drier conditions. In contrast, anthropogenic aerosols of the 1970s, containing a large cooling component from U.S. sulfate, reduced annual precipitation deficits and lowered temperatures by up to 0.4°C. Our results showcase the importance of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the evolution of U.S. droughts.

  10. Contemporary anthropogenic silver cycle: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Jeremiah; Jirikowic, Julie; Bertram, Marlen; van Beers, D; Gordon, R B; Henderson, Kathryn; Klee, R J; Lanzano, Ted; Lifset, R; Oetjen, Lucia; Graedel, T E

    2005-06-15

    Anthropogenic cycling of silver in 1997 is presented using three discrete governmental units: 64 countries encompassing what we believe to be over 90% of global silver flows, 9 world regions, and the entire planet. Using material flow analysis (MFA) techniques, the country level cycles are aggregated to produce the regional cycles, which are used to form a "best estimate" global cycle. Interesting findings include the following: (1) several silver-mining countries export ore and concentrate but also import silver-containing semiproducts and products; (2) the level of development for a country, as indicated by the gross domestic product, is a fair indicator of silver use, but several significant outliers exist; (3) the countries with the greatest mine production include Mexico, the United States, Peru, and China, whereas the United States, Japan, India, Germany, and Italy lead in the fabrication and manufacture of products; (4) North America and Europe's use of silver products exceed that of other regions on a per capita basis; (5) global silver discards, including tailings and separation waste, totaled approximately 57% of the silver mined; (6) approximately 57% of the silver entering waste management globally is recycled; and (7) the amount of silver entering landfills globally is comparable to the amount found in tailings. The results of this MFA lay the basis for further analysis, which in turn can offer insight into natural resource policy, the characterization of environmental impact, and better resource management. PMID:16047806