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Sample records for assessing earthquake hazards

  1. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment for Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betul Demircioglu, Mine; Sesetyan, Karin; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-05-01

    Using a GIS-environment to present the results, seismic risk analysis is considered as a helpful tool to support the decision making for planning and prioritizing seismic retrofit intervention programs at large scale. The main ingredients of seismic risk analysis consist of seismic hazard, regional inventory of buildings and vulnerability analysis. In this study, the assessment of the national earthquake hazard based on the NGA ground motion prediction models and the comparisons of the results with the previous models have been considered, respectively. An evaluation of seismic risk based on the probabilistic intensity ground motion prediction for Turkey has been investigated. According to the Macroseismic approach of Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2005), two alternative vulnerability models have been used to estimate building damage. The vulnerability and ductility indices for Turkey have been taken from the study of Giovinazzi (2005). These two vulnerability models have been compared with the observed earthquake damage database. A good agreement between curves has been clearly observed. In additional to the building damage, casualty estimations based on three different methods for each return period and for each vulnerability model have been presented to evaluate the earthquake loss. Using three different models of building replacement costs, the average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss ratio (PMLR) due to regional earthquake hazard have been provided to form a basis for the improvement of the parametric insurance model and the determination of premium rates for the compulsory earthquake insurance in Turkey.

  2. Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Peninsular India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashish; Lindholm, C.; Parvez, I. A.; Kühn, D.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is presented for Peninsular India. The PSHA has been performed using three different recurrence models: a classical seismic zonation model, a fault model, and a grid model. The development of a grid model based on a non-parameterized recurrence model using an adaptation of the Kernel-based method that has not been applied to this region before. The results obtained from the three models have been combined in a logic tree structure in order to investigate the impact of different weights of the models. Three suitable attenuation relations have been considered in terms of spectral acceleration for the stable continental crust as well as for the active crust within the Gujarat region. While Peninsular India has experienced large earthquakes, e.g., Latur and Jabalpur, it represents in general a stable continental region with little earthquake activity, as also confirmed in our hazard results. On the other hand, our study demonstrates that both the Gujarat and the Koyna regions are exposed to a high seismic hazard. The peak ground acceleration for 10 % exceedance in 50 years observed in Koyna is 0.4 g and in the Kutch region of Gujarat up to 0.3 g. With respect to spectral acceleration at 1 Hz, estimated ground motion amplitudes are higher in Gujarat than in the Koyna region due to the higher frequency of occurrence of larger earthquakes. We discuss the higher PGA levels for Koyna compared Gujarat and do not accept them uncritically.

  3. Assessing the earthquake hazards in urban areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hays, W.W.; Gori, P.L.; Kockelman, W.J.

    1988-01-01

    Major urban areas in widely scattered geographic locations across the United States are a t varying degrees of risk from earthquakes. the locations of these urban areas include Charleston, South Carolina; Memphis Tennessee; St.Louis, Missouri; Salt Lake City, Utah; Seattle-Tacoma, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Anchorage, Alaska; even Boston, Massachusetts, and Buffalo New York, have a history of large earthquakes. Cooperative research during the past decade has focused on assessing the nature and degree of the risk or seismic hazard i nthe broad geographic regions around each urban area. The strategy since the 1970's has been to bring together local, State, and Federal resources to solve the problem of assessing seismic risk. Successfl sooperative programs have been launched in the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles regions in California and the Wasatch Front region in Utah. 

  4. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

  5. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

  6. Spatial earthquake hazard assessment of Evansville, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rockaway, T.D.; Frost, J.D.; Eggert, D.L.; Luna, R.

    1997-01-01

    The earthquake hazard has been evaluated for a 150-square-kilometer area around Evansville, Indiana. GIS-QUAKE, a system that combines liquefaction and ground motion analysis routines with site-specific geological, geotechnical, and seismological information, was used for the analysis. The hazard potential was determined by using 586 SPT borings, 27 CPT sounding, 39 shear-wave velocity profiles and synthesized acceleration records for body-wave magnitude 6.5 and 7.3 mid-continental earthquakes, occurring at distances of 50 km and 250 km, respectively. The results of the GIS-QUAKE hazard analyses for Evansville identify areas with a high hazard potential that had not previously been identified in earthquake zonation studies. The Pigeon Creek area specifically is identified as having significant potential for liquefaction-induced damage. Damage as a result of ground motion amplification is determined to be a moderate concern throughout the area. Differences in the findings of this zonation study and previous work are attributed to the size and range of the database, the hazard evaluation methodologies, and the geostatistical interpolation techniques used to estimate the hazard potential. Further, assumptions regarding the groundwater elevations made in previous studies are also considered to have had a significant effect on the results.

  7. Shaky grounds of earthquake hazard assessment, forecasting, and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2012-12-01

    The quality of the fit of a trivial or, conversely, delicately-designed model to the observed natural phenomena is the fundamental pillar stone of any forecasting, including seismic hazard assessment, earthquake forecasting, and prediction. Using precise mathematical and logical systems outside their range of applicability can mislead to scientifically groundless conclusions, which unwise application can be extremely dangerous in assessing expected risk and losses. Are the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard enough valid to qualify for being useful laws describing earthquake sequences? Seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical statistical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, are clustered displaying behaviors that are far from independent. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single fault zone. Evidently, such a situation complicates design of reliable methodologies for earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. The situation is not hopeless due to available geological evidences and deterministic pattern recognition approaches, specifically, when intending to predict predictable, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades.

  8. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  9. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: State of Gujarat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Parvez, Imtiyaz

    2016-04-01

    The Gujarat state of India is one of the most seismically active intercontinental regions of the world. Historically, it has experienced many damaging earthquakes including the devastating 1819 Rann of Kutch and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The effect of the later one is grossly underestimated by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP). To assess a more adequate earthquake hazard for the state of Gujarat, we apply Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation taking into account naturally fractal distribution of earthquake loci. USLE has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of the territory considered and, therefore, may differ dramatically from the actual one when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. of a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. We cross compare the seismic hazard maps compiled for the same standard regular grid 0.2°×0.2° (i) in terms of design ground acceleration (DGA) based on the neo-deterministic approach, (ii) in terms of probabilistic exceedance of peak ground acceleration (PGA) by GSHAP, and (iii) the one resulted from the USLE application. Finally, we present the maps of seismic risks for the state of Gujarat integrating the obtained seismic hazard, population density based on 2011 census data, and a few model assumptions of vulnerability.

  10. Remote sensing hazard monitoring and assessment in Yushu earthquake disaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Qi; Xu, Feng; Chen, Shirong

    2011-12-01

    Yushu Earthquake of magnitude 7.1 Richter in 2010 has brought a huge loss of personal lives and properties to China. National Disaster Reduction Center of China implemented the disaster assessment by using remote sensing images and field investigation. Preliminary judgment of disaster scope and damage extent was acquired by change detection. And the building region of hard-hit area Jiegu town was partitioned into 3-level grids in airborne remote sensing images by street, type of use, structure, and about 685 girds were numbered. Hazard assessment expert group were sent to implement field investigation according to each grid. The housing damage scope and extent of loss were defined again integrated field investigation data and local government reported information. Though remote sensing technology has played an important role in huge disaster monitoring and assessment, the automatic capability of disaster information extraction flow, three-dimensional disaster monitoring mode and bidirectional feedback mechanism of products and services should still be further improved.

  11. Earthquake Hazards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donovan, Neville

    1979-01-01

    Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)

  12. Seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar: Earthquake model database, ground-motion scenarios, and probabilistic assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Thant, M.; Maung Maung, P.; Sieh, K.

    2015-12-01

    We have constructed an earthquake and fault database, conducted a series of ground-shaking scenarios, and proposed seismic hazard maps for all of Myanmar and hazard curves for selected cities. Our earthquake database integrates the ISC, ISC-GEM and global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, and includes harmonized magnitude scales without duplicate events. Our active fault database includes active fault data from previous studies. Using the parameters from these updated databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and the elapse time of last events), we have determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the modelled ground motions to the felt intensities of earthquakes. Through the case of the 1975 Bagan earthquake, we determined that Atkinson and Moore's (2003) scenario using the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) fits the behaviours of the subduction events best. Also, the 2011 Tarlay and 2012 Thabeikkyin events suggested the GMPEs of Akkar and Cagnan (2010) fit crustal earthquakes best. We thus incorporated the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions based on Vs30 (the average shear-velocity down to 30 m depth) from analysis of topographic slope and microtremor array measurements to assess seismic hazard. The hazard is highest in regions close to the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar as seismic sources there have earthquakes occur at short intervals and/or last events occurred a long time ago. The hazard curves for the cities of Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or with a low Vs30, e.g., the downtown of Sagaing and Shwemawdaw Pagoda in Bago.

  13. Stability assessment of structures under earthquake hazard through GRID technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prieto Castrillo, F.; Boton Fernandez, M.

    2009-04-01

    This work presents a GRID framework to estimate the vulnerability of structures under earthquake hazard. The tool has been designed to cover the needs of a typical earthquake engineering stability analysis; preparation of input data (pre-processing), response computation and stability analysis (post-processing). In order to validate the application over GRID, a simplified model of structure under artificially generated earthquake records has been implemented. To achieve this goal, the proposed scheme exploits the GRID technology and its main advantages (parallel intensive computing, huge storage capacity and collaboration analysis among institutions) through intensive interaction among the GRID elements (Computing Element, Storage Element, LHC File Catalogue, federated database etc.) The dynamical model is described by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE's) and by a set of parameters. Both elements, along with the integration engine, are encapsulated into Java classes. With this high level design, subsequent improvements/changes of the model can be addressed with little effort. In the procedure, an earthquake record database is prepared and stored (pre-processing) in the GRID Storage Element (SE). The Metadata of these records is also stored in the GRID federated database. This Metadata contains both relevant information about the earthquake (as it is usual in a seismic repository) and also the Logical File Name (LFN) of the record for its later retrieval. Then, from the available set of accelerograms in the SE, the user can specify a range of earthquake parameters to carry out a dynamic analysis. This way, a GRID job is created for each selected accelerogram in the database. At the GRID Computing Element (CE), displacements are then obtained by numerical integration of the ODE's over time. The resulting response for that configuration is stored in the GRID Storage Element (SE) and the maximum structure displacement is computed. Then, the corresponding

  14. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

  15. International Collaboration for Strengthening Capacity to Assess Earthquake Hazard in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cummins, P. R.; Hidayati, S.; Suhardjono, S.; Meilano, I.; Natawidjaja, D.

    2012-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced a dramatic increase in earthquake risk due to rapid population growth in the 20th century, much of it occurring in areas near the subduction zone plate boundaries that are prone to earthquake occurrence. While recent seismic hazard assessments have resulted in better building codes that can inform safer building practices, many of the fundamental parameters controlling earthquake occurrence and ground shaking - e.g., fault slip rates, earthquake scaling relations, ground motion prediction equations, and site response - could still be better constrained. In recognition of the need to improve the level of information on which seismic hazard assessments are based, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and Indonesia's National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, have initiated a 4-year project designed to strengthen the Government of Indonesia's capacity to reliably assess earthquake hazard. This project is a collaboration of Australian institutions including Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, with Indonesian government agencies and universities including the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, the Geological Agency, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, and Bandung Institute of Technology. Effective earthquake hazard assessment requires input from many different types of research, ranging from geological studies of active faults, seismological studies of crustal structure, earthquake sources and ground motion, PSHA methodology, and geodetic studies of crustal strain rates. The project is a large and diverse one that spans all these components, and these will be briefly reviewed in this presentation

  16. Improving earthquake hazard assessments in Italy: An alternative to “Texas sharpshooting”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2012-12-01

    The 20 May 2012 M = 6.1 earthquake that struck the Emilia region of northern Italy illustrates a common problem afflicting earthquake hazard assessment. It occurred in an area classified as "low seismic hazard" based on the current national seismic hazard map (Gruppo di Lavoro, Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica, rapporto conclusivo, 2004, http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/mappa_ps_apr04/italia.html) adopted in 2006. That revision of the seismic code was motivated by the 2002 M = 5.7 earthquake that struck S. Giuliano di Puglia in central Italy, also a previously classified low-hazard area, resulting in damage and casualties. Previous code was updated in 1981-1984 after earlier maps missed the 1980 M = 6.5 Irpinia earthquake.

  17. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  18. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  19. Earthquake Cluster Analysis for Turkey and its Application for Seismic Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake clusters are an important element in general seismology and also for the application in seismic hazard assessment. In probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, the occurrence of earthquakes is often linked to an independent Monte Carlo process, following a stationary Poisson model. But earthquakes are dependent and constrained, especially in terms of earthquake swarms, fore- and aftershocks or even larger sequences as observed for the Landers sequence in California or the Darfield-Christchurch sequence in New Zealand. For earthquake catalogues, the element of declustering is an important step to capture earthquake frequencies by avoiding a bias towards small magnitudes due to aftershocks. On the other hand, declustered catalogues for independent probabilistic seismic activity will underestimate the total number of earthquakes by neglecting dependent seismicity. In this study, the effect of clusters on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is investigated in detail. To capture the features of earthquake clusters, a uniform framework for earthquake cluster analysis is introduced using methodologies of geostatistics and machine learning. These features represent important cluster characteristics like cluster b-values, temporal decay, rupture orientations and many more. Cluster parameters are mapped in space using kriging. Furthermore, a detailed data analysis is undertaken to provide magnitude-dependent relations for various cluster parameters. The acquired features are used to introduce dependent seismicity within stochastic earthquake catalogues. In addition, the development of smooth seismicity maps based on historic databases is in general biased to the more complete recent decades. A filling methodology is introduced which will add dependent seismicity in catalogues where none has been recorded to avoid the above mentioned bias. As a case study, Turkey has been chosen due to its inherent seismic activity and well-recorded data coverage. Clustering

  20. Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

  1. Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment.

    PubMed

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian

    2009-11-01

    One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere. PMID:19890328

  2. Recent destructive earthquakes and international collaboration for seismic hazard assessment in the East Asia region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, K.; Fujiwara, H.

    2013-12-01

    Recent destructive earthquakes in East-Asia claimed one third of million of people's lives. People learned from the lessons but forgotten after generations even one sculpted on stones. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is considered as a scientific way to define earthquake zones and to guide urban plan and construction. NIED promoted SHA as a national mission of Japan over 10 years and as an international cooperation to neighbor countries since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We initiated China-Japan-Korea SHA strategic cooperative program for the next generation map supported by MOST-JST-NRF in 2010. We also initiated cooperative program with Taiwan Earthquake Model from 2012, as well many other parties in the world. Consequently NIED proudly joined Global Earthquake Model (GEM) since its SHA's methodologies and technologies were highly valuated. As a representative of Japan, NIED will continue to work closely with all members of GEM not only for the GEM global components, also for its regional programs. Seismic hazard assessment has to be carrying out under existed information with epistemic uncertainty. We routinely improve the existed models to carefully treat active faults, earthquake records, and magnitudes under the newest authorized information provided by Earthquake Research Committee, Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we have been re-considering the national SHA maps in even long-term and low probabilities. We have setup a platform of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/en to exchange the SHA information and share our experiences, lessons and knowledge internationally. Some probabilistic SHA concepts, seismic risk mitigation issues need constantly to be promoted internationally through outreach and media. Major earthquakes in East Asian region which claimed one third of million of people's lives (slab depth with contour (Hayes et al., 2011)).

  3. Understanding and responding to earthquake hazards

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raymond, C. A.; Lundgren, P. R.; Madsen, S. N.; Rundle, J. B.

    2002-01-01

    Advances in understanding of the earthquake cycle and in assessing earthquake hazards is a topic of great importance. Dynamic earthquake hazard assessments resolved for a range of spatial scales and time scales will allow a more systematic approach to prioritizing the retrofitting of vulnerable structures, relocating populations at risk, protecting lifelines, preparing for disasters, and educating the public.

  4. Field-based assessment of landslide hazards resulting from the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, B. D.; Jibson, R.

    2015-12-01

    The M7.8 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence caused thousands of fatalities, destroyed entire villages, and displaced millions of residents. The earthquake sequence also triggered thousands of landslides in the steep Himalayan topography of Nepal and China; these landslides were responsible for hundreds of fatalities and blocked vital roads, trails, and rivers. With the support of USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, the U.S. Geological Survey responded to this crisis by providing landslide-hazard expertise to Nepalese agencies and affected villages. Assessments of landslide hazards following earthquakes are essential to identify vulnerable populations and infrastructure, and inform government agencies working on rebuilding and mitigation efforts. However, assessing landslide hazards over an entire earthquake-affected region (in Nepal, estimated to be ~30,000 km2), and in exceedingly steep, inaccessible topography presents a number of logistical challenges. We focused the scope of our assessment by conducting helicopter- and ground-based landslide assessments in 12 priority areas in central Nepal identified a priori from satellite photo interpretation performed in conjunction with an international consortium of remote sensing experts. Our reconnaissance covered 3,200 km of helicopter flight path, extending over an approximate area of 8,000 km2. During our field work, we made 17 site-specific assessments and provided landslide hazard information to both villages and in-country agencies. Upon returning from the field, we compiled our observations and further identified and assessed 74 river-blocking landslide dams, 12% of which formed impoundments larger than 1,000 m2 in surface area. These assessments, along with more than 11 hours of helicopter-based video, and an overview of hazards expected during the 2015 summer monsoon have been publically released (http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151142) for use by in-country and international agencies.

  5. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Erdem; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  6. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

  7. Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2012-12-01

    . Tsunami hazard assessments or long-term forecast of earthquakes have not considered such a triggering or simultaneous occurrence of different types of earthquakes. The large tsunami at the Fukushima nuclear power station was due to the combination of the deep and shallow slip. Disaster prevention for low-frequency but large-scale hazard must be considered. The Japanese government established a general policy to for two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, but cause devastating disaster once they occur. For such events, saving people's lives is the first priority and soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education will be prepared. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared to protect lives and properties of residents as well as economic and industrial activities.

  8. Seismic hazard assessment in the Tibet-Himalayan region based on observed and modeled extreme earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Sokolov, V. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Ground shaking due to recent catastrophic earthquakes are estimated to be significantly higher than that predicted by a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). A reason is that extreme (large magnitude and rare) seismic events are not accounted in PSHA in the most cases due to the lack of information and unknown reoccurrence time of the extremes. We present a new approach to assessment of regional seismic hazard, which incorporates observed (recorded and historic) seismicity and modeled extreme events. We apply this approach to PSHA of the Tibet-Himalayan region. The large magnitude events simulated for several thousand years in models of lithospheric block-and-fault dynamics and consistent with the regional geophysical and geodetic data are employed together with the observed earthquakes for the Monte-Carlo PSHA. Earthquake scenarios are generated stochastically to sample the magnitude and spatial distribution of seismicity (observed and modeled) as well as the distribution of ground motion for each seismic event. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values (that is, ground shaking at a site), which are expected to be exceeded at least once in 50 years with a probability of 10%, are mapped and compared to those PGA values observed and predicted earlier. The results show that the PGA values predicted by our assessment fit much better the observed ground shaking due to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake than those predicted by conventional PSHA. Our approach to seismic hazard assessment provides a better understanding of ground shaking due to possible large-magnitude events and could be useful for risk assessment, earthquake engineering purposes, and emergency planning.

  9. Assessment of the Relative Largest Earthquake Hazard Level in the NW Himalaya and its Adjacent Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsapanos, Theodoros M.; Yadav, R. B. S.; Olasoglou, Efthalia M.; Singh, Mayshree

    2016-04-01

    In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of Mmax, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K(K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a "very high" K index which is 6.

  10. From Earthquake Prediction Research to Time-Variable Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of

  11. Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

  12. Magnitude Problems in Historical Earthquake Catalogs and Their Impact on Seismic Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rong, Y.; Mahdyiar, M.; Shen-Tu, B.; Shabestari, K.; Guin, J.

    2010-12-01

    A reliable historical earthquake catalog is a critical component for any regional seismic hazard analysis. In Europe, a number of historical earthquake catalogs have been compiled and used in constructing national or regional seismic hazard maps, for instance, Switzerland ECOS catalog by Swiss Seismological Service (2002), Italy CPTI catalog by CPTI Working Group (2004), Greece catalog by Papazachos et al. (2007), and CENEC (central, northern and northwestern Europe) catalog by Grünthal et al. (2009), Turkey catalog by Kalafat et al. (2007), and GSHAP catalog by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (1999). These catalogs spatially overlap with each other to a large extent and employed a uniform magnitude scale (Mw). A careful review of these catalogs has revealed significant magnitude problems which can substantially impact regional seismic hazard assessment: 1) Magnitudes for the same earthquakes in different catalogs are discrepant. Such discrepancies are mainly driven by different regression relationships used to convert other magnitude scales or intensity into Mw. One of the consequences is magnitudes of many events in one catalog are systematically biased higher or lower with respect to those in another catalog. For example, the magnitudes of large historical earthquakes in the Italy CPTI catalog are systematically higher than those in Switzerland ECOS catalog. 2) Abnormally high frequency of large magnitude events is observed for some time period that intensities are the main available data. This phenomenon is observed in Italy CPTI catalog for the time period of 1870 to 1930. This may be due to biased conversion from intensity to magnitude. 3) A systematic bias in magnitude resulted in biased estimations for a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationships. It also affected the determination of upper bound magnitudes for various seismic source zones. All of these issues can lead to skewed seismic hazard results, or inconsistent

  13. Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasari, Sumanta; Dikshit, Onkar

    2014-07-01

    This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog ( Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331-1342, 2010) of 20 events ( M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north-east India and its surrounding region (20°-32°N and 87°-100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.

  14. Assessing the Utility of and Improving USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J. S.; Scott, M.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Bailey, D.; Gibbons, D.

    2010-12-01

    A major focus of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) has been the development and implementation of products and information meant to improve earthquake hazard assessment, mitigation and response for a myriad of users. Many of these products rely on the data and efforts of the EHP and its partner scientists who are building the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). We report on a project meant to assess the utility of many of these products and information, conducted collaboratively by EHP scientists and Pierce County Department of Emergency Management staff. We have conducted focus group listening sessions with members of the engineering, business, medical, media, risk management, and emergency response communities as well as participated in the planning and implementation of earthquake exercises in the Pacific Northwest. Thus far we have learned that EHP and ANSS products satisfy many of the needs of engineers and some planners, and information is widely used by media and the general public. However, some important communities do not use these products despite their intended application for their purposes, particularly county and local emergency management and business communities. We have learned that products need to convey more clearly the impact of earthquakes, in everyday terms. Users also want products (e.g. maps, forecasts, etc.) that can be incorporated into tools and systems they use regularly. Rather than simply building products and posting them on websites, products need to be actively marketed and training provided. We suggest that engaging users prior to and during product development will enhance their usage and effectiveness.

  15. Sustainable Urban Planning and Risk Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarhan, C.; Deniz, D.

    2013-05-01

    Cities in the developing world are facing increased risk of disasters and the potential of economic and human losses from natural hazards is being exacerbated by the rate of unplanned urban expansion and influenced by the quality of urban management. Risk assessment has come to be regarded by many analysts as a critical part of the development of sustainable communities. The risk assessment function has been linked to issues such as environmental stewardship and community planning. The crucial point is the linkage between hazard mitigation efforts and urban planning in the context of building sustainable communities. But this conceptual linkage has been difficult to implement in practice. The resolution of this difficulty and a clarification of the essential linkage of hazard mitigation to urban planning will require a broader definition and a reformulation of the risk assessment function. Turkey is one of the countries that support the international sustainability. However, it is hardly related urban planning with sustainability in Turkey. At this point, this paper aims to introduce the integration of sustainability and risk assessment in Turkey. The components of the sustainable communities have been discussed and earthquake risk in Turkey has been explained with the recent past examples. At the end of the study, the relationship between risk assessment and the sustainable urban planning in Turkey has been examined in terms of Turkish urban planning system.

  16. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (1) An assessment based on the information of the forthcoming earthquake that Earthquake Research Committee(2013) evaluated

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

    2015-12-01

    The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence

  17. The 1843 earthquake: a maximising scenario for tsunami hazard assessment in the Northern Lesser Antilles?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann

    2013-04-01

    The French Caribbean Islands are located over the Lesser Antilles active subduction zone where a handful of earthquakes historically reached magnitude Mw=6.0 and more. According to available catalogs these earthquakes have been sometimes able to trigger devastating local or regional tsunamis, either directly by the shake or indirectly by induced landslides. For example, these islands have severely suffered during the Mw~7.5 Virgin Islands earthquake (1867) triggering several meters high waves in the whole Lesser Antilles Arc and, more recently, during the Mw=6.3 Les Saintes earthquake (2004) followed by a local 1 m high tsunami. However, in 1839 a Mw~7.5 subduction earthquake occured offshore Martinica followed a few years after by the more famous 1843 Mw~8.5 megathrust event, with an epicenter located approximately between Guadeloupe and Antigua, but both without any catastrophic tsunami being reported. In this study we discuss the potential impact of a maximum credible scenario of tsunami generation with such a Mw=8.5 rupture at the subduction interface using available geological information, numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation and high resolution bathymetric data within the framework of tsunami hazard assessment for the French West Indies. Despite the fact that the mystery remains unresolved concerning the lack of historical tsunami data especially for the 1843 event, modeling results show that the tsunami impact is not uniformly distributed in the whole archipelago and could show important heterogeneities in terms of maximum wave heights for specific places. This is easily explained by the bathymetry and the presence of several islands around the mainland leading to resonance phenomena, and because of the existence of a fringing coral reef surrounding partially those islands.

  18. Historical Earthquake Records and their Application for Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Tianshui, Gansu Province, Northwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Wang, Z.

    2009-12-01

    Tianshui, located in southeastern Gansu Province of northwestern China, was a center of early Chinese civilization and the birthplace of “Ba Gua” or “eight symbols.” It has a long history of earthquakes and many strong and large earthquakes have occurred there. Earthquakes, ancient or modern ones, have not only been well recorded, but also left marks on many historical landmarks and buildings that can still be seen today. For example, major damage by the 1654 Tianshui earthquake (M8.0) and some minor damage by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake can be seen in the Maiji Grotto. A new effort to investigate and reexamine the historical macroseismic records is under way, with the aim of better seismic hazard and risk assessment for the Tianshui area. Seismic hazard and risk will be assessed for the Tianshui area using the 2,500 years of intensity observations (records). The results will be used by local governments and communities for developing more effective mitigation policies in the aftermath of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The results will also be compared to hazard and risk assessments derived from other approaches, such as probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses.

  19. Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, B.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake Hazard Assessment Based on Geological Data: An approach from Crystalline Terrain of Peninsular India Biju John National Institute of Rock Mechanics b_johnp@yahoo.co.in Peninsular India was for long considered as seismically stable. But the recent earthquake sequence of Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997), Bhuj (2001) suggests this region is among one of the active Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) of the world, where the recurrence intervals is of the order of tens of thousands of years. In such areas, earthquake may happen at unexpected locations, devoid of any previous seismicity or dramatic geomorphic features. Even moderate earthquakes will lead to heavy loss of life and property in the present scenario. So it is imperative to map suspected areas to identify active faults and evaluate its activities, which will be a vital input to seismic hazard assessment of SCR area. The region around Wadakkanchery, Kerala, South India has been experiencing micro seismic activities since 1989. Subsequent studies, by the author, identified a 30 km long WNW-ESE trending reverse fault, dipping south (45°), that influenced the drainage system of the area. The macroscopic and microscopic studies of the fault rocks from the exposures near Desamangalam show an episodic nature of faulting. Dislocations of pegmatitic veins across the fault indicate a cumulative dip displacement of 2.1m in the reverse direction. A minimum of four episodes of faulting were identified in this fault based on the cross cutting relations of different structural elements and from the mineralogic changes of different generations of gouge zones. This suggests that an average displacement of 52cm per event might have occurred for each event. A cyclic nature of faulting is identified in this fault zone in which the inter-seismic period is characterized by gouge induration and fracture sealing aided by the prevailing fluids. Available empirical relations connecting magnitude with displacement and rupture

  20. Metrics, Bayes, and BOGSAT: Recognizing and Assessing Uncertainties in Earthquake Hazard Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S. A.; Brooks, E. M.; Spencer, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recent damaging earthquakes in areas predicted to be relatively safe illustrate the need to assess how seismic hazard maps perform. At present, there is no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed. The metric implicit in current maps, that during a time interval predicted shaking will be exceeded only at a specific fraction of sites, is useful but permits maps to be nominally successful although they significantly underpredict or overpredict shaking, or nominally unsuccessful but predict shaking well. We explore metrics that measure the effects of overprediction and underprediction. Although no single metric fully characterizes map behavior, using several metrics can provide useful insight for comparing and improving maps. A related question is whether to regard larger-than-expected shaking as a low-probability event allowed by a map, or to revise the map to show increased hazard. Whether and how much to revise a map is complicated, because a new map that better describes the past may or may not better predict the future. The issue is like deciding after a coin has come up heads a number of times whether to continue assuming that the coin is fair and the run is a low-probability event, or to change to a model in which the coin is assumed to be biased. This decision can be addressed using Bayes' Rule, so that how much to change depends on the degree of one's belief in the prior model. Uncertainties are difficult to assess for hazard maps, which require subjective assessments and choices among many poorly known or unknown parameters. However, even rough uncertainty measures for estimates/predictions from such models, sometimes termed BOGSATs (Bunch Of Guys Sitting Around Table) by risk analysts, can give users useful information to make better decisions. We explore the extent of uncertainty via sensitivity experiments on how the predicted hazard depends on model parameters.

  1. Assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gori, Paula L., (Edited By); Hays, Walter W.

    2000-01-01

    This report--the second of two volumes--represents an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to transfer accurate Earth science information about earthquake hazards along Utah's Wasatch Front to researchers, public officials, design professionals, land-use planners, and emergency managers in an effort to mitigate the effects of these hazards. This volume contains eight chapters on ground-shaking hazards and aspects of loss estimation.

  2. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  3. Some Contributions of the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment Approach to Earthquake Risk Assessment for the City of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paskaleva, Ivanka; Kouteva-Guentcheva, Mihaela; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes the outcome of the advanced seismic hazard and seismic risk estimates recently performed for the city of Sofia, based on the state-of-the-art of knowledge for this site. Some major results of the neo-deterministic, scenario-based, seismic hazard assessment approach (NDSHA) to the earthquake hazard assessment for the city of Sofia are considered. Further validations of the recently constructed synthetic strong motion database, containing site and seismic source-specific ground motion time histories are performed and discussed. Displacement and acceleration response spectra are considered. The elastic displacement response spectra and displacement demand are discussed with regard to earthquake magnitude, seismic source-to-site distance, seismic source mechanism, and local geological site conditions. The elastic response design spectrum from the standard pseudo-acceleration, versus natural period, T n, format, converted to a capacity diagram in S a - S d format is discussed in the perspective of the Eurocode 8 provisions. A brief overview of the engineering applications of the seismic demand obtained making use of the NDSHA is supplied. Some applications of the outcome of NDSHA procedure for engineering purposes are shown. The obtained database of ground shaking waveforms and time-histories, computed for city of Sofia is used to: (1) extract maximum particle velocities; (2) calculate the space distribution of the horizontal strain factor Log10 ɛ; (3) estimate liquefaction susceptibility in terms of standard penetration test, N values, and initial over burden stress; (4) estimate damage index distribution; and (5) map the distribution of the expected pipe breaks and red-tagged buildings for given scenario earthquakes, etc. The theoretically obtained database, based on the simultaneous treatment of the data from many disciplines, contains data fully suitable for practical use. The proper use of this database can lead to a significant seismic

  4. Assessment of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake: Implications on attenuation functions for seismic hazard analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K. )

    1991-09-01

    This study investigates the earthquake records from the 1988 Saguenay earthquake and examines the implications of these records with respect to ground-motion models used in seismic-hazard studies in eastern North America (ENA), specifically, to what extent the ground motions from this earthquake support or reject the various attenuation functions used in the EPRI and LLNL seismic-hazard calculations. Section 2 provides a brief description of the EPRI and LLNL attenuation functions for peak acceleration and for spectral velocities. Section 2 compares these attenuation functions the ground motions from the Saguenay earthquake and from other relevant earthquakes. Section 4 reviews available seismological studies about the Saguenay earthquake, in order to understand its seismological characteristics and why some observations may differ from predictions. Section 5 examines the assumptions and methodology used in the development of the attenuation functions selected by LLNL ground-motion expert 5. Finally, Section 6 draws conclusions about the validity of the various sets of attenuation functions, in light of the Saguenay data and of other evidence presented here. 50 refs., 37 figs., 7 tabs.

  5. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

  6. Can Apparent Stress be Used to Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment or Earthquake Forecast? An Ongoing Approach in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zhongliang; Jiang, Changsheng; Zhang, Shengfeng

    2016-08-01

    The approach in China since the last 1.5 decade for using apparent stress in time-dependent seismic hazard assessment or earthquake forecast is summarized. Retrospective case studies observe that apparent stress exhibits short-term increase, with time scale of several months, before moderate to strong earthquakes in a large area surrounding the `target earthquake'. Apparent stress is also used to estimate the tendency of aftershock activity. The concept relating apparent stress indirectly to stress level is used to understand the properties of some `precursory' anomalies. Meanwhile, different opinions were reported. Problems in the calculation also existed for some cases. Moreover, retrospective studies have the limitation in their significance as compared to forward forecast test. Nevertheless, this approach, seemingly uniquely carried out in a large scale in mainland China, provides the earthquake catalogs for the predictive analysis of seismicity with an additional degree of freedom, deserving a systematic review and reflection.

  7. A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orhan, A.; Seyrek, E.; Tosun, H.

    2007-10-01

    The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with Ms=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered. This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.

  8. New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico Trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian D.; Llanes Estrada, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-01-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

  9. New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brink, Uri ten; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian; Llanes, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-09-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

  10. The Effects on Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Chile of Assuming Earthquake Scenarios with Spatially Uniform Slip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvajal, Matías; Gubler, Alejandra

    2016-06-01

    We investigated the effect that along-dip slip distribution has on the near-shore tsunami amplitudes and on coastal land-level changes in the region of central Chile (29°-37°S). Here and all along the Chilean megathrust, the seismogenic zone extends beneath dry land, and thus, tsunami generation and propagation is limited to its seaward portion, where the sensitivity of the initial tsunami waveform to dislocation model inputs, such as slip distribution, is greater. We considered four distributions of earthquake slip in the dip direction, including a spatially uniform slip source and three others with typical bell-shaped slip patterns that differ in the depth range of slip concentration. We found that a uniform slip scenario predicts much lower tsunami amplitudes and generally less coastal subsidence than scenarios that assume bell-shaped distributions of slip. Although the finding that uniform slip scenarios underestimate tsunami amplitudes is not new, it has been largely ignored for tsunami hazard assessment in Chile. Our simulations results also suggest that uniform slip scenarios tend to predict later arrival times of the leading wave than bell-shaped sources. The time occurrence of the largest wave at a specific site is also dependent on how the slip is distributed in the dip direction; however, other factors, such as local bathymetric configurations and standing edge waves, are also expected to play a role. Arrival time differences are especially critical in Chile, where tsunamis arrive earlier than elsewhere. We believe that the results of this study will be useful to both public and private organizations for mapping tsunami hazard in coastal areas along the Chilean coast, and, therefore, help reduce the risk of loss and damage caused by future tsunamis.

  11. Rapid field-based landslide hazard assessment in response to post-earthquake emergency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frattini, Paolo; Gambini, Stefano; Cancelliere, Giorgio

    2016-04-01

    On April 25, 2015 a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred 80 km to the northwest of Kathmandu (Nepal). The largest aftershock, occurred on May 12, 2015, was the Mw 7.3 Nepal earthquake (SE of Zham, China), 80 km to the east of Kathmandu. . The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 10,000 sqkm region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Several thousands of landslides have been triggered during the event, causing widespread damages to mountain villages and the evacuation of thousands of people. Rasuwa was one of the most damaged districts. This contribution describes landslide hazard analysis of the Saramthali, Yarsa and Bhorle VDCs (122 km2, Rasuwa district). Hazard is expressed in terms of qualitative classes (low, medium, high), through a simple matrix approach that combines frequency classes and magnitude classes. The hazard analysis is based primarily on the experience gained during a field survey conducted in September 2014. During the survey, local knowledge has been systematically exploited through interviews with local people that have experienced the earthquake and the coseismic landslides. People helped us to recognize fractures and active deformations, and allowed to reconstruct a correct chronicle of landslide events, in order to assign the landslide events to the first shock, the second shock, or the post-earthquake 2015 monsoon. The field experience was complemented with a standard analysis of the relationship between potential controlling factors and the distribution of landslides reported in Kargel et al (2016). This analysis allowed recognizing the most important controlling factor. This information was integrated with the field observations to verify the mapped units and to complete the mapping in area not accessible for field activity. Finally, the work was completed with the analysis and the use of a detailed landslide inventory produced by the University of Milano Bicocca that covers most of the area affected by coseismic landslides in

  12. FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.

    1985-01-01

    The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

  13. Earthquake hazards: a national threat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2006-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.

  14. Assessment of existing and potential landslide hazards resulting from the April 25, 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collins, Brian D.; Jibson, Randall W.

    2015-01-01

    This report provides a detailed account of assessments performed in May and June 2015 and focuses on valley-blocking landslides because they have the potential to pose considerable hazard to many villages in Nepal. First, we provide a seismological background of Nepal and then detail the methods used for both external and in-country data collection and interpretation. Our results consist of an overview of landsliding extent, a characterization of all valley-blocking landslides identified during our work, and a description of video resources that provide high resolution coverage of approximately 1,000 kilometers (km) of river valleys and surrounding terrain affected by the Gorkha earthquake sequence. This is followed by a description of site-specific landslide-hazard assessments conducted while in Nepal and includes detailed descriptions of five noteworthy case studies. Finally, we assess the expectation for additional landslide hazards during the 2015 summer monsoon season.

  15. Hazard assessment of long-period ground motions for the Nankai Trough earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Aoi, S.; Fujiwara, H.

    2013-12-01

    We evaluate a seismic hazard for long-period ground motions associated with the Nankai Trough earthquakes (M8~9) in southwest Japan. Large interplate earthquakes occurring around the Nankai Trough have caused serious damages due to strong ground motions and tsunami; most recent events were in 1944 and 1946. Such large interplate earthquake potentially causes damages to high-rise and large-scale structures due to long-period ground motions (e.g., 1985 Michoacan earthquake in Mexico, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake in Japan). The long-period ground motions are amplified particularly on basins. Because major cities along the Nankai Trough have developed on alluvial plains, it is therefore important to evaluate long-period ground motions as well as strong motions and tsunami for the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquakes. The long-period ground motions are evaluated by the finite difference method (FDM) using 'characterized source models' and the 3-D underground structure model. The 'characterized source model' refers to a source model including the source parameters necessary for reproducing the strong ground motions. The parameters are determined based on a 'recipe' for predicting strong ground motion (Earthquake Research Committee (ERC), 2009). We construct various source models (~100 scenarios) giving the various case of source parameters such as source region, asperity configuration, and hypocenter location. Each source region is determined by 'the long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough' published by ERC. The asperity configuration and hypocenter location control the rupture directivity effects. These parameters are important because our preliminary simulations are strongly affected by the rupture directivity. We apply the system called GMS (Ground Motion Simulator) for simulating the seismic wave propagation based on 3-D FDM scheme using discontinuous grids (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) to our study. The grid spacing for the shallow region is 200 m and

  16. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Türker, Tuǧba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn't been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, MS=7.3 and 1897, MS=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for MS magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boǧazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake

  17. Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

    2010-10-01

    The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

  18. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, Max

    2013-04-01

    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

  19. Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Seismic hazard and risk assessment for Himalayas, Lake Baikal, and Central China regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Parvez, Imtiyaz; Tao, Xiaxin

    2015-04-01

    The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation, has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of the territory that is used for investigation, averaging, and extrapolation into the future. Therefore, the hazard may differ dramatically when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. territory occupied by a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. In fact, given the observed patterns of distributed seismic activity the results of multi-scale analysis embedded in USLE approach demonstrate that traditional estimations of seismic hazard and risks for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. Moreover, the USLE approach provides a significant improvement when compared to the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, e.g. the maps resulted from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP). We apply the USLE approach to evaluating seismic hazard and risks to population of the three territories of different size representing a sub-continental and two different regional scales of analysis, i.e. the Himalayas and surroundings, Lake Baikal, and Central China regions.

  20. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ameer, A. S.; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.; Alsinawi, S. A.

    2005-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29° 38.5° N and longitude 39° 50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905 2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate λ, b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin ≥ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

  1. New Seafloor Map of the Puerto Rico Trench Helps Assess Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Brink, Uri; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian; Llanes, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-09-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure 1). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico, although their ages are unknown. The Puerto Rico Trench is atypical of oceanic trenches. Subduction is highly oblique (10°-20°) to the trench axis with a large component of left-lateral strike-slip motion. Similar convergence geometry is observed at the Challenger Deep in the Mariana Trench, the deepest point on Earth. In addition to its extremely deep seafloor, the Puerto Rico Trench is also characterized by the most negative free-air gravity anomaly on Earth, -380 mGal, located 50 km south of the trench, where water depth is 7950 m (Figure 2). A tilted carbonate platform provides evidence for extreme vertical tectonism in the region. This platform was horizontally deposited over Cretaceous to Paleocene arc rocks starting in the Late Oligocene. Then, at 3.5 Ma, the carbonate platform was tilted by 4° toward the trench over a time period of less than 40 kyr, such that its northern edge is at a depth of 4000 m and its reconstructed elevation on land in Puerto Rico is at +1300 m (Figures 1 and 2).

  2. A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Console, Rodolfo; Nardi, Anna; Carluccio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The characteristic earthquake hypothesis is not strongly supported by observational data because of the relatively short duration of historical and even paleoseismological records. For instance, for the Calabria (Southern Italy) region, historical information on strong earthquakes exist for at least two thousand years, but they can be considered complete for M > 6.0 only for the latest few centuries. As a consequence, characteristic earthquakes are seldom reported for individual fault segments, and hazard assessment is not reliably estimated by means of only minor seismicity reported in the historical catalogs. Even if they cannot substitute the information contained in a good historical catalog, physics-based earthquake simulators have become popular in the recent literature, and their application has been justified by a number of reasons. In particular, earthquake simulators can provide interesting information on which renewal models can better describe the recurrence statistics, and how this is affected by features as local fault geometry and kinematics. The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100,000 years and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥ 4.5. The algorithm on which this simulator is based is constrained by several physical elements, as an average slip rate due to tectonic loading for every single segment in the investigated fault system, the process of rupture growth and termination, and interaction between earthquake sources, including small magnitude events. Events nucleated in one segment are allowed to expand into neighboring segments, if they are separated by a given maximum range of distance. The application of our simulation algorithm to Calabria region provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term periodicity of strong earthquakes, short

  3. A new earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard assessment of the NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) Jaslovske Bohunice, Slovakia, site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysel, Robert; Kristek, Jozef; Moczo, Peter; Csicsay, Kristian; Cipciar, Andrej; Srbecky, Miroslav

    2014-05-01

    According to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Safety Guide No. SSG-9, an earthquake catalogue should comprise all information on pre-historical, historical and seismometrically recorded earthquakes in the region which should cover geographic area not smaller than a circle with radius of 300 km around the site. Jaslovske Bohunice is an important economic site. Several nuclear facilities are located in Jaslovske Bohunice - either in operation (NPP V2, national radioactive waste repository) or in decommissioning (NPP A1, NPP V1). Moreover, a new reactor unit is being planned for the site. Jaslovske Bohunice site is not far from the Dobra Voda seismic source zone which has been the most active seismic zone at territory of Slovakia since the beginning of 20th century. Relatively small distances to Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak capital Bratislava make the site a prominent priority in terms of seismic hazard assessment. We compiled a new earthquake catalogue for the NPP Jaslovske Bohunice region following the recommendations of the IAEA Safety Guide. The region includes parts of the territories of Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland, and it partly extends up to Germany, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. The catalogue is based on data from six national earthquake catalogues, two regional earthquake catalogues (ACORN, CENEC) and a catalogue from the local NPP network. The primarily compiled catalogue for the time period 350 - 2011 consists of 9 142 events. We then homogenized and declustered the catalogue. Eventually we checked the catalogue for time completeness. For homogenization, we divided the catalogue into preseismometric (350 - 1900) and seismometric (1901-2011) periods. For earthquakes characterized by the epicentral intensity and local magnitude we adopted relations proposed for homogenization of the CENEC catalogue (Grünthal et al. 2009). Instead of assuming the equivalency between local magnitudes reported by the

  4. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

  5. Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Aagaard, B; Dost, B; Ellsworth, W L; Hardebeck, J L; Harris, R A; Ji, C; Johnston, M J S; Langbein, J; Lienkaemper, J J; Michael, A J; Murray, J R; Nadeau, R M; Reasenberg, P A; Reichle, M S; Roeloffs, E A; Shakal, A; Simpson, R W; Waldhauser, F

    2005-10-13

    Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking. PMID:16222291

  6. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  7. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  8. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  9. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  10. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  11. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

  12. Foreshocks and short-term hazard assessment of large earthquakes using complex networks: the case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalaki, Eleni; Spiliotis, Konstantinos; Siettos, Constantinos; Minadakis, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

    2016-08-01

    The monitoring of statistical network properties could be useful for the short-term hazard assessment of the occurrence of mainshocks in the presence of foreshocks. Using successive connections between events acquired from the earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the case of the L'Aquila (Italy) mainshock (Mw = 6.3) of 6 April 2009, we provide evidence that network measures, both global (average clustering coefficient, small-world index) and local (betweenness centrality) ones, could potentially be exploited for forecasting purposes both in time and space. Our results reveal statistically significant increases in the topological measures and a nucleation of the betweenness centrality around the location of the epicenter about 2 months before the mainshock. The results of the analysis are robust even when considering either large or off-centered the main event space windows.

  13. Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-04-01

    Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

  14. Multicomponent Body and Surface Wave Seismic Analysis using an Urban Land Streamer System: An Integrative Earthquake Hazards Assessment Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gribler, G.; Liberty, L. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present earthquake site response results from a 48-channel multicomponent seismic land streamer and large weight drop system. We acquired data along a grid of city streets in western Idaho at a rate of a few km per day where we derived shear wave velocity profiles to a depth of 40-50 m by incorporating vertical and radial geophone signals to capture the complete elliptical Rayleigh wave motion. We also obtained robust p-wave reflection and refraction results by capturing the returned signals that arrive at non-vertical incidence angles that result from the high-velocity road surface layer. By integrating the derived shear wave velocity profiles with p-wave reflection results, we include depositional and tectonic boundaries from the upper few hundred meters into our analysis to help assess whether ground motions may be amplified by shallow bedrock. By including p-wave refraction information into the analysis, we can identify zones of high liquefaction potential by comparing shear wave and p-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) measurements relative to refraction-derived water table depths. The utilization of multicomponent land streamer data improves signal-noise levels over single component data with no additional field effort. The added multicomponent data processing step can be as simple as calculating the magnitude of the vector for surface wave and refraction arrivals or rotating the reflected signals to the maximum emergence angle based on near surface p-wave velocity information. We show example data from a number of Idaho communities where historical earthquakes have been recorded. We also present numerical models and systematic field tests that show the effects of a high velocity road surface layer in surface and body wave measurements. We conclude that multicomponent seismic information derived from seismic land streamers can provide a significant improvement in earthquake hazard assessment over a standard single component approach with only a small addition in

  15. What to do given that earthquake hazard maps often fail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Geller, R.; Liu, M.

    2012-04-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is another striking example - after the 2008 Wenchuan and 2010 Haiti earthquakes - of highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in areas predicted by earthquake hazard maps to have significantly lower hazard than nearby supposedly high-risk areas which have been essentially quiescent. Given the limited seismic record available and limited understanding of earthquake mechanics, hazard maps have to depend heavily on poorly constrained parameters and the mapmakers' preconceptions. These preconceptions are often incorrect. The Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami were much larger than "expected" by the mappers because of the presumed absence of such large earthquakes in the seismological record. This assumption seemed consistent with a model based on the convergence rate and age of the subducting lithosphere, which predicted at most a low M 8 earthquake. Although this model was invalidated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and paleotsunami deposits showed evidence of three large past earthquakes in the Tohoku region in the past 3000 years, these facts were not incorporated in the hazard mapping. The failure to anticipate the Tohoku and other recent large earthquakes suggests two changes to current hazard mapping practices. First, the uncertainties in hazard map predictions should be assessed and communicated clearly to potential users. Communication of uncertainties would make the maps more useful by letting users decide how much credence to place in the maps. Second, hazard maps should undergo objective testing to compare their predictions to those of null hypotheses based on random regional seismicity. Such testing, which is common and useful in other fields, will hopefully produce measurable improvements. There are likely, however, to be limits on how well hazard maps can ever be made due to the intrinsic variability of earthquake processes.

  16. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Strategy in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Anderson, R.; Pramumijoyo, S.

    2008-05-01

    Because of the active tectonic setting of the region, the risks of geological hazards inevitably increase in Indonesian Archipelagoes and other ASIAN countries. Encouraging community living in the vulnerable area to adapt with the nature of geology will be the most appropriate strategy for earthquake risk reduction. Updating the Earthquake Hazard Maps, enhancement ofthe existing landuse management , establishment of public education strategy and method, strengthening linkages among stake holders of disaster mitigation institutions as well as establishement of continues public consultation are the main strategic programs for community resilience in earthquake vulnerable areas. This paper highlights some important achievements of Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Programs in Indonesia, together with the difficulties in implementing such programs. Case examples of Yogyakarta and Bengkulu Earthquake Mitigation efforts will also be discussed as the lesson learned. The new approach for developing earthquake hazard map which is innitiating by mapping the psychological aspect of the people living in vulnerable area will be addressed as well.

  17. 75 FR 18787 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-13

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100...

  18. 75 FR 75457 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-03

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100...

  19. 77 FR 18792 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-28

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100...

  20. 76 FR 64325 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-18

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will meet... Directive/PPD-8: National Preparedness to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)...

  1. 77 FR 64314 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-19

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will meet... needs for existing buildings, to review the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)...

  2. 76 FR 18165 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-01

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. ] SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold... be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of...

  3. 77 FR 27439 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-10

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100...

  4. 75 FR 8042 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-23

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a.... Jack Hayes, National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  5. 77 FR 19224 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-30

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100...

  6. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN THE OFFSHORE ENVIRONMENT.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, Robert A.; Basham, Peter W.

    1985-01-01

    This report discusses earthquake effects and potential hazards in the marine environment, describes and illustrates methods for the evaluation of earthquake hazards, and briefly reviews strategies for mitigating hazards. The report is broadly directed toward engineers, scientists, and others engaged in developing offshore resources. The continental shelves have become a major frontier in the search for new petroleum resources. Much of the current exploration is in areas of moderate to high earthquake activity. If the resources in these areas are to be developed economically and safely, potential earthquake hazards must be identified and mitigated both in planning and regulating activities and in designing, constructing, and operating facilities. Geologic earthquake effects that can be hazardous to marine facilities and operations include surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, seismic shaking, sea-floor failures, turbidity currents, and tsunamis.

  7. Stochastic ground-motion simulation of two Himalayan earthquakes: seismic hazard assessment perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbindu, Ashish; Sharma, Mukat Lal; Kamal

    2012-04-01

    The earthquakes in Uttarkashi (October 20, 1991, M w 6.8) and Chamoli (March 8, 1999, M w 6.4) are among the recent well-documented earthquakes that occurred in the Garhwal region of India and that caused extensive damage as well as loss of life. Using strong-motion data of these two earthquakes, we estimate their source, path, and site parameters. The quality factor ( Q β ) as a function of frequency is derived as Q β ( f) = 140 f 1.018. The site amplification functions are evaluated using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The ground motions of the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes are simulated using the stochastic method of Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865-1894, 1983). The estimated source, path, and site parameters are used as input for the simulation. The simulated time histories are generated for a few stations and compared with the observed data. The simulated response spectra at 5% damping are in fair agreement with the observed response spectra for most of the stations over a wide range of frequencies. Residual trends closely match the observed and simulated response spectra. The synthetic data are in rough agreement with the ground-motion attenuation equation available for the Himalayas (Sharma, Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1063-1069, 1998).

  8. A preliminary assessment of earthquake ground shaking hazard at Yucca Mountain, Nevada and implications to the Las Vegas region

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, I.G.; Green, R.K.; Sun, J.I.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Abrahamson, N.A.; Quittmeyer, R.C.

    1996-12-31

    As part of early design studies for the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, the authors have performed a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of ground shaking. A total of 88 Quaternary faults within 100 km of the site were considered in the hazard analysis. They were characterized in terms of their probability o being seismogenic, and their geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, recurrence model, and slip rate. Individual faults were characterized by maximum earthquakes that ranged from moment magnitude (M{sub w}) 5.1 to 7.6. Fault slip rates ranged from a very low 0.00001 mm/yr to as much as 4 mm/yr. An areal source zone representing background earthquakes up to M{sub w} 6 1/4 = 1/4 was also included in the analysis. Recurrence for these background events was based on the 1904--1994 historical record, which contains events up to M{sub w} 5.6. Based on this analysis, the peak horizontal rock accelerations are 0.16, 0.21, 0.28, and 0.50 g for return periods of 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 10,000 years, respectively. In general, the dominant contributor to the ground shaking hazard at Yucca Mountain are background earthquakes because of the low slip rates of the Basin and Range faults. A significant effect on the probabilistic ground motions is due to the inclusion of a new attenuation relation developed specifically for earthquakes in extensional tectonic regimes. This relation gives significantly lower peak accelerations than five other predominantly California-based relations used in the analysis, possibly due to the lower stress drops of extensional earthquakes compared to California events. Because Las Vegas is located within the same tectonic regime as Yucca Mountain, the seismic sources and path and site factors affecting the seismic hazard at Yucca Mountain also have implications to Las Vegas. These implications are discussed in this paper.

  9. Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border

  10. Review of earthquake hazard assessments of plant sites at Paducah, Kentucky and Portsmouth, Ohio

    SciTech Connect

    1997-03-01

    Members of the US Geological Survey staff in Golden, Colorado, have reviewed the submissions of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) staff and of Risk Engineering, Inc. (REI) (Golden, Colorado) for seismic hazard estimates for Department of Energy facilities at Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky. We reviewed the historical seismicity and seismotectonics near the two sites, and general features of the LLNL and EPRI/SOG methodologies used by LLNL and Risk Engineering respectively, and also the separate Risk Engineering methodology used at Paducah. We discussed generic issues that affect the modeling of both sites, and performed alternative calculations to determine sensitivities of seismic hazard results to various assumptions and models in an attempt to assign reasonable bounding values of the hazard. In our studies we find that peak acceleration values of 0.08 g for Portsmouth and 0.32 g for Paducah represent central values of the, ground motions obtained at 1000-year return periods. Peak accelerations obtained in the LLNL and Risk Engineering studies have medians near these values (results obtained using the EPRI/SOG methodology appear low at both sites), and we believe that these medians are appropriate values for use in the evaluation of systems, structures, and components for seismic structural integrity and for the seismic design of new and improved systems, structures, and components at Portsmouth and Paducah.

  11. Review of earthquake hazard assessments of plant sites at Paducah, Kentucky, and Portsmouth, Ohio

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-03-01

    Members of the US Geological Survey staff in Golden, Colorado, have reviewed the submissions of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) staff and of Risk Engineering, Inc. (REI) (Golden, Colorado) for seismic hazard estimates for Department of Energy facilities at Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky. We reviewed the historical seismicity and seismotectonics near the two sites, and general features of the LLNL and EPRI/SOG methodologies used by LLNL and Risk Engineering respectively, and also the separate Risk Engineering methodology used at Paducah. We discussed generic issues that affect the modeling of both sites, and performed alternative calculations to determine sensitivities of seismic hazard results to various assumptions and models in an attempt to assign reasonable bounding values of the hazard. In our studies we find that peak acceleration values of 0.08 g for Portsmouth and 0.32 g for Paducah represent central values of the ground motions obtained at 1000-year return periods. Peak accelerations obtained in the LLNL and Risk Engineering studies have medians near these values (results obtained using the EPRI/SOG methodology appear low at both sites), and we believe that these medians are appropriate values for use in the evaluation of systems, structures, and components for seismic structural integrity and for the seismic design of new and improved systems, structures, and components at Portsmouth and Paducah.

  12. Quantifying the Seismic Hazard From Natural and Induced Earthquakes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, J. L.; Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; McGarr, A.; Michael, A. J.; Mueller, C. S.; Petersen, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    In the past 12 years, seismicity rates in portions of the central and eastern United States (CEUS) have increased. In 2011, the year of peak activity, three M ≥ 5 earthquakes occurred, causing millions of dollars in damage. Much of the increase in seismicity is believed to have been induced by wastewater from oil and gas activity that is injected deep underground. This includes damaging earthquakes in southern Colorado, central Arkansas, and central Oklahoma in 2011. Earthquakes related to oil and gas activities contribute significantly to the total seismic hazard in some areas of the CEUS, but most of the tens of thousands of wastewater disposal wells in the CEUS do not cause damaging earthquakes. The challenge is to better understand this contribution to the hazard in a realistic way for those wells that are inducing earthquakes or wells that may induce earthquakes in the future. We propose a logic-tree approach to estimate the hazard posed by the change in seismicity that deemphasizes the need to evaluate whether the seismicity is natural or man-made. We first compile a list of areas of increased seismicity, including areas of known induced earthquakes. Using areas of increased seismicity (instead of just induced earthquakes) allows us to assess the hazard over a broader region, avoiding the often-difficult task of judging whether an earthquake sequence is induced. With the zones of increased seismicity defined, we then estimate the earthquake hazard for each zone using a four-branch logic tree: (1) The increased seismicity rate is natural, short-term variation within the longer-term background seismicity rate. Thus, these earthquakes would be added to the catalog when computing the background seismicity rate. (2) The increased seismicity rate represents a new and permanent addition to the background seismicity. In this branch, a new background seismicity rate begins at the time of the change in earthquake rate. (3) Induced earthquakes account for the

  13. Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake forced the policy of counter-measurements to earthquake disasters, including earthquake hazard evaluations, to be changed in Japan. Before the March 11, Japanese earthquake hazard evaluation was based on the history of earthquakes that repeatedly occurs and the characteristic earthquake model. The source region of an earthquake was identified and its occurrence history was revealed. Then the conditional probability was estimated using the renewal model. However, the Japanese authorities changed the policy after the megathrust earthquake in 2011 such that the largest earthquake in a specific seismic zone should be assumed on the basis of available scientific knowledge. According to this policy, three important reports were issued during these two years. First, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a new estimate of damages by a hypothetical Mw9 earthquake along the Nankai trough during 2011 and 2012. The model predicts a 34 m high tsunami on the southern Shikoku coast and intensity 6 or higher on the JMA scale in most area of Southwest Japan as the maximum. Next, the Earthquake Research Council revised the long-term earthquake hazard evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai trough in May 2013, which discarded the characteristic earthquake model and put much emphasis on the diversity of earthquakes. The so-called 'Tokai' earthquake was negated in this evaluation. Finally, another report by the CDMC concluded that, with the current knowledge, it is hard to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai trough using the present techniques, based on the diversity of earthquake phenomena. These reports created sensations throughout the country and local governments are struggling to prepare counter-measurements. These reports commented on large uncertainty in their evaluation near their ends, but are these messages transmitted properly to the public? Earthquake scientists, including authors, are involved in

  14. Landslide Hazards After the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony; Roshan, Masud; Akhtar, Sadar Saeed; Wahla, Sajjad Karamat

    2007-01-01

    The 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake killed 87,300 people and disrupted the lives of several million more. By current estimates, 30,000 still live in camps sited more in accordance with short term expedience than with freedom from risk of natural hazards. In December 2006, the international aid community expressed fears that 50,000 people in Northwest Frontier Province may leave their mountain homes this winter as landslides and avalanches block access roads. As the focus of humanitarian assistance shifts toward restoration of Kashmir's infrastructure, it is important that the persistent hazard of landslides within the earthquake affected region be understood and recognized.

  15. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone

    SciTech Connect

    Heaton, T.H.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M/sub w/) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M/sub w/ 8) or a giant earthquake (M/sub w/ 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M/sub w/ less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M/sub w/ up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. 35 references, 6 figures.

  16. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. PMID:17789780

  17. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

  18. 76 FR 8712 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-15

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will meet... Effectiveness of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). The agenda may change to...

  19. 76 FR 72905 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-28

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold a... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of...

  20. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  1. Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.

    2015-10-01

    The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.

  2. Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.

    2016-05-01

    The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.

  3. Tsunami Hazards From Strike-Slip Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legg, M. R.; Borrero, J. C.; Synolakis, C. E.

    2003-12-01

    Strike-slip faulting is often considered unfavorable for tsunami generation during large earthquakes. Although large strike-slip earthquakes triggering landslides and then generating substantial tsunamis are now recognized hazards, many continue to ignore the threat from submarine tectonic displacement during strike-slip earthquakes. Historical data record the occurrence of tsunamis from strike-slip earthquakes, for example, 1906 San Francisco, California, 1994 Mindoro, Philippines, and 1999 Izmit, Turkey. Recognizing that strike-slip fault zones are often curved and comprise numerous en echelon step-overs, we model tsunami generation from realistic strike-slip faulting scenarios. We find that tectonic seafloor uplift, at a restraining bend or"pop-up" structure, provides an efficient mechanism to generate destructive local tsunamis; likewise for subsidence at divergent pull-apart basin structures. Large earthquakes on complex strike-slip fault systems may involve both types of structures. The California Continental Borderland is a high-relief submarine part of the active Pacific-North America transform plate boundary. Natural harbors and bays created by long term vertical motion associated with strike-slip structural irregularities are now sites of burgeoning population and major coastal infrastructure. Significant local tsunamis generated by large strike-slip earthquakes pose a serious, and previously unrecognized threat. We model several restraining bend pop-up structures offshore southern California to quantify the local tsunami hazard. Maximum runup derived in our scenarios ranges from one to several meters, similar to runup observed from the 1994 Mindoro, Philippines, (M=7.1) earthquake. The runup pattern is highly variable, with local extremes along the coast. We only model the static displacement field for the strike-slip earthquake source; dynamic effects of moving large island or submerged banks laterally during strike-slip events remains to be examined

  4. Assessing earthquake hazards with fault trench and LiDAR maps in the Puget Lowland, Washington, USA (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, A. R.; Bradley, L.; Personius, S. F.; Johnson, S. Y.

    2010-12-01

    Deciphering the earthquake histories of faults over the past few thousands of years in tectonically complex forearc regions relies on detailed site-specific as well as regional geologic maps. Here we present examples of site-specific USGS maps used to reconstruct earthquake histories for faults in the Puget Lowland. Near-surface faults and folds in the Puget Lowland accommodate 4-7 mm/yr of north-south shortening resulting from northward migration of forearc blocks along the Cascadia convergent margin. The shortening has produced east-trending uplifts, basins, and associated reverse faults that traverse urban areas. Near the eastern and northern flanks of the Olympic Mountains, complex interactions between north-south shortening and mountain uplift are reflected by normal, oblique-slip, and reverse surface faults. Holocene oblique-slip movement has also been mapped on Whidbey Island and on faults in the foothills of the Cascade Mountains in the northeastern lowland. The close proximity of lowland faults to urban areas may pose a greater earthquake hazard there than do much longer but more distant plate-boundary faults. LiDAR imagery of the densely forested lowland flown over the past 12 years revealed many previously unknown 0.5-m to 6-m-high scarps showing Holocene movement on upper-plate faults. This imagery uses two-way traveltimes of laser light pulses to detect as little as 0.2 m of relative relief on the forest floor. The returns of laser pulses with the longest travel times yield digital elevation models of the ground surface, which we vertically exaggerate and digitally shade from multiple directions at variable transparencies to enhance identification of scarps. Our maps include imagery at scales of 1:40,000 to 1:2500 with contour spacings of 100 m to 0.5 m. Maps of the vertical walls of fault-scarp trenches show complex stratigraphies and structural relations used to decipher the histories of large surface-rupturing earthquakes. These logs (field mapping

  5. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  6. National Earthquake Hazards Program at a Crossroads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    The U.S.National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, which turns 25 years old on 1 October 2003, is passing through two major transitions, which experts said either could weaken or strengthen the program. On 1 March, a federal government reorganization placed NEHRP's lead agency,the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),within the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS). A number of earthquake scientists and engineers expressed concern that NEHRP, which already faces budgetary and organizational challenges, and lacks visibility,could end up being marginalized in the bureaucratic shuffle. Some experts, though,as well as agency officials, said they hope DHS will recognize synergies between dealing with earthquakes and terrorist attacks.

  7. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gori, Paula L., (Edited By)

    1993-01-01

    INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and

  8. Earthquakes Pose a Serious Hazard in Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crone, Anthony J.

    2007-01-01

    This report is USGS Afghanistan Project No. 155. This study was funded by an Interagency Agreement between the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. Geological Survey. Afghanistan is located in the geologically active part of the world where the northward-moving Indian plate is colliding with the southern part of the Eurasian plate at a rate of about 1.7 inches per year. This collision has created the world's highest mountains and causes slips on major faults that generate large, often devastating earthquakes. Every few years a powerful earthquake causes significant damage or fatalities. New construction needs to be designed to accommodate the hazards posed by strong earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a preliminary seismic-hazard map of Afghanistan. Although the map is generalized, it provides government officials, engineers, and private companies who are interested in participating in Afghanistan's growth with crucial information about the location and nature of seismic hazards.

  9. Evaluating fault rupture hazard for strike-slip earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, M.; Cao, T.; Dawson, Tim; Frankel, A.; Wills, C.; Schwartz, D.

    2004-01-01

    We present fault displacement data, regressions, and a methodology to calculate in both a probabilistic and deterministic framework the fault rupture hazard for strike-slip faults. To assess this hazard we consider: (1) the size of the earthquake and probability that it will rupture to the surface, (2) the rate of all potential earthquakes on the fault (3) the distance of the site along and from the mapped fault, (4) the complexity of the fault and quality of the fault mapping, (5) the size of the structure that will be placed at the site, and (6) the potential and size of displacements along or near the fault. Probabilistic fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in design of structures or lifelines that are located within about 50m of well-mapped active faults.

  10. 75 FR 50749 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-17

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will meet....m. The primary purpose of this meeting is to receive information on NEHRP earthquake...

  11. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the

  12. Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ten Brink, U.S.; Lee, H.J.; Geist, E.L.; Twichell, D.

    2009-01-01

    Submarine landslides along the continental slope of the U.S. Atlantic margin are potential sources for tsunamis along the U.S. East coast. The magnitude of potential tsunamis depends on the volume and location of the landslides, and tsunami frequency depends on their recurrence interval. However, the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin is poorly known. Well-studied landslide-generated tsunamis in other parts of the world have been shown to be associated with earthquakes. Because the size distribution and recurrence interval of earthquakes is generally better known than those for submarine landslides, we propose here to estimate the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides from the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes in the near vicinity of the said landslides. To do so, we calculate maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude, use recurrence interval of earthquakes to estimate recurrence interval of landslide, and assume a threshold landslide size that can generate a destructive tsunami. The maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude is calculated in 3 ways: by slope stability analysis for catastrophic slope failure on the Atlantic continental margin, by using land-based compilation of maximum observed distance from earthquake to liquefaction, and by using land-based compilation of maximum observed area of earthquake-induced landslides. We find that the calculated distances and failure areas from the slope stability analysis is similar or slightly smaller than the maximum triggering distances and failure areas in subaerial observations. The results from all three methods compare well with the slope failure observations of the Mw = 7.2, 1929 Grand Banks earthquake, the only historical tsunamigenic earthquake along the North American Atlantic margin. The results further suggest that a Mw = 7.5 earthquake (the largest expected earthquake in the eastern U

  13. A Procedure for Rapid Localized Earthquake Hazard Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

    2010-12-01

    In this presentation, we introduce various ground shaking and building response models. We then discuss the forecasting capabilities of different models submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and show how they can be used as inputs for these models. Finally, we discuss how outputs from such multi- tiered calculations would prove invaluable for real-time and scenario-based hazard assessment and for cost-benefit analysis of possible mitigation actions.

  14. Late Holocene liquefaction features in the Dominican Republic: A powerful tool for earthquake hazard assessment in the northeastern Caribbean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tuttle, M.P.; Prentice, C.S.; Dyer-Williams, K.; Pena, L.R.; Burr, G.

    2003-01-01

    Several generations of sand blows and sand dikes, indicative of significant and recurrent liquefaction, are preserved in the late Holocene alluvial deposits of the Cibao Valley in northern Dominican Republic. The Cibao Valley is structurally controlled by the Septentrional fault, an onshore section of the North American-Caribbean strike-slip plate boundary. The Septentrional fault was previously studied in the central part of the valley, where it sinistrally offsets Holocene terrace risers and soil horizons. In the eastern and western parts of the valley, the Septentrional fault is buried by Holocene alluvial deposits, making direct study of the structure difficult. Liquefaction features that formed in these Holocene deposits as a result of strong ground shaking provide a record of earthquakes in these areas. Liquefaction features in the eastern Cibao Valley indicate that at least one historic earthquake, probably the moment magnitude, M 8, 4 August 1946 event, and two to four prehistoric earthquakes of M 7 to 8 struck this area during the past 1100 yr. The prehistoric earthquakes appear to cluster in time and could have resulted from rupture of the central and eastern sections of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200. Liquefaction features in the western Cibao Valley indicate that one historic earthquake, probably the M 8, 7 May 1842 event, and two prehistoric earthquakes of M 7-8 struck this area during the past 1600 yr. Our findings suggest that rupture of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200 may have extended beyond the central Cibao Valley and generated an earthquake of M 8. Additional information regarding the age and size distribution of liquefaction features is needed to reconstruct the prehistoric earthquake history of Hispaniola and to define the long-term behavior and earthquake potential of faults associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary.

  15. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

  16. Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Awad

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

  17. 77 FR 75610 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-21

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold... Director. Any draft meeting materials will be posted prior to the meeting on the National...

  18. 78 FR 8109 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-05

    ... National Institute of Standards and Technology Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting... meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR or Committee), will hold... Director. Any draft meeting materials will be posted prior to the meeting on the National...

  19. Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck: Tohoku's embarrassing lessons for earthquake hazard mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S. A.; Geller, R. J.; Liu, M.

    2011-12-01

    Important tools in preparation for natural disasters include long term forecasts, short term predictions, and real time warnings. How well these can be done for different disasters - earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, storms, and floods - differ dramatically, calling for careful analysis. The challenge is illustrated by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. This was another striking example - after the 2008 Wenchuan and 2010 Haiti earthquakes - of destructive earthquakes that occurred in areas predicted by hazard maps to have significantly lower hazard than nearby supposedly high-risk areas which have been essentially quiescent. Given the limited seismic record available and limited understanding of earthquake mechanics, hazard maps often have to depend heavily on poorly constrained parameters and the mapmakers' preconceptions. When these prove incorrect, maps do poorly. The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami were much larger than "expected" by mappers because of the presumed absence of such large earthquakes in the seismological record. This assumption seemed consistent with a model based on the convergence rate and age of the subducting lithosphere, which predicted at most a low M 8 earthquake. Although this model was invalidated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and paleotsunami deposits showed evidence of three large past earthquakes in the Tohoku region in the past 3000 years, these facts were not incorporated in the hazard mapping. The failure to anticipate the Tohoku and other recent large earthquakes suggests two changes to current hazard mapping practices. First, uncertainties in hazard map predictions should be assessed and communicated clearly to users. Communication of uncertainties would make the maps more useful by letting users decide how much credence to place in the maps. Second, maps should undergo objective testing to compare their predictions to those of null hypotheses based on random regional seismicity. Such testing, which is common and useful in other fields

  20. Comprehensive Seismic Monitoring for Emergency Response and Hazards Assessment: Recent Developments at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buland, R. P.; Guy, M.; Kragness, D.; Patton, J.; Erickson, B.; Morrison, M.; Bryon, C.; Ketchum, D.; Benz, H.

    2009-12-01

    The USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) has put into operation a new generation of seismic acquisition, processing and distribution subsystems that seamlessly integrate regional, national and global seismic network data for routine monitoring of earthquake activity and response to large, damaging earthquakes. The system, Bulletin Hydra, was designed to meet Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) design goals to handle thousands of channels of real-time seismic data, compute and distribute time-critical seismic information for emergency response applications, and manage the integration of contributed earthquake products and information, arriving from near-real-time up to six weeks after an event. Bulletin Hydra is able meet these goals due to a modular, scalable, and flexible architecture that supports on-the-fly consumption of new data, readily allows for the addition of new scientific processing modules, and provides distributed client workflow management displays. Through the Edge subsystem, Bulletin Hydra accepts waveforms in half a dozen formats. In addition, Bulletin Hydra accepts contributed seismic information including hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, unassociated and associated picks, and amplitudes in a variety of formats including earthworm import/export pairs and EIDS. Bulletin Hydra has state-driven algorithms for computing all IASPEI standard magnitudes (e.g. mb, mb_BB, ML, mb_LG, Ms_20, and Ms_BB) as well as Md, Ms(VMAX), moment tensor algorithms for modeling different portions of the wave-field at different distances (e.g. teleseismic body-wave, centroid, and regional moment tensors), and broadband depth. All contributed and derived data are centrally managed in an Oracle database. To improve on single station observations, Bulletin Hydra also does continuous real-time beam forming of high-frequency arrays. Finally, workflow management displays are used to assist NEIC analysts in their day-to-day duties. All combined

  1. Active Fault Mapping of Naga-Disang Thrust (Belt of Schuppen) for Assessing Future Earthquake Hazards in NE India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, A.

    2014-12-01

    We observe the geodynamic appraisal of Naga-Disang Thrust North East India. The Disang thrust extends NE-SW over a length of 480 km and it defines the eastern margin of Neogene basin. It branches out from Haflong-Naga thrust and in the NE at Bulbulia in the right bank of Noa Dihing River, it is terminated by Mishmi thrust, which extends into Myanmar as 'Sagaing fault,which dip generally towards SE. It extends between Dauki fault in the SW and Mishmi thrust in the NE. When the SW end of 'Belt of Schuppen' moved upwards and towards east along the Dauki fault, the NE end moved downwards and towards west along the Mishmi thrust, causing its 'S' shaped bending. The SRTM generated DEM is used to map the topographic expression of the schuppen belt, where these thrusts are significantly marked by topographic break. Satellite imagery map also shows presence lineaments supporting the post tectonic activities along Naga-Disang Thrusts. The southern part of 'Belt of Schuppen' extends along the sheared western limb of southerly plunging Kohima synform, a part of Indo Burma Ranges (IBR) and it is seismically active.The crustal velocity at SE of Schuppen is 39.90 mm/yr with a azimuth of 70.780 at Lumami, 38.84 mm/yr (Azimuth 54.09) at Senapati and 36.85 mm/yr (Azimuth 54.09) at Imphal. The crustal velocity at NW of Schuppen belt is 52.67 mm/yr (Azimuth 57.66) near Dhauki Fault in Meghalaya. It becomes 43.60 mm/yr (Azimuth76.50) - 44.25 (Azimuth 73.27) at Tiding and Kamlang Nagar around Mishmi thrust. The presence of Schuppen is marked by a change in high crustal velocity from Indian plate to low crustal velocity in Mishmi Suture as well as Indo Burma Ranges. The difference in crustal velocities results in building up of strain along the Schuppen which may trigger a large earthquake in the NE India in future. The belt of schuppean seems to be seismically active, however, the enough number of large earthquakes are not recorded. These observations are significant on Naga

  2. Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Can, Ceren; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2014-09-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.

  3. Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Can, Ceren Eda; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2014-09-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes ( M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.

  4. Tsunami Hazards Along the Chinese Coast from Potential Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Santos, A.; Shi, Y.; Wang, M.; Yuen, D. A.

    2006-12-01

    The recent Indonesian earthquake has awakened great concerns about destructive hazards along the Chinese coast. Scientists have provided a clear record of past tsunamis along East China that clearly indicate the potential for future tsunami damage to China. In this work we will assess from analyzing the probability for tsunami waves to hit the Chinese coast in the next century from large earthquakes coming from the neighboring subducting plate boundaries. This analysis is important because of the sharp increase in coastal population density in China, the intense development of harbors and the exploitation of mineral resources in coastal areas, ranging from Xiamen in the north to Hainan in the south. The probability seismic studies for the South China Sea and adjacent field were based on the relationship of Gutenberg- Richter (G-R) relationship between the number of local earthquake and magnitude. We studied the earthquakes of the global subduction belt. We found the earthquakes of the global subduction belt follow the G-R relationship. The plate boundary model came from P. Bird (2002). According to the historical earthquakes of South China Sea and adjacent field (From NEIC), and the tectonic and focal mechanism (HCMT), the studied field is divided two partitions. The latitude of the first partition is N (12-19 deg.); the second is N(19-23 deg.). There are twelve large earthquakes in the two partitions. Their magnitudes are bigger than 6. The probabilities of earthquakes in the South China Sea are computed by the local G-R relationship. They would determine the seismically-induced tsunami probability. In our study the linear shallow water equation is used for integrating the twelve earthquake induced tsunamis. The numerical scheme for the linear equations is the staggered leap-frog method. The code has been provided by Dr. Fumihiko Imamura, Tokohu University, Japan. We combined the probability of three segments of wave height, 2.0 to 1.0 meter, 1.0 to 0.5 meters

  5. Nationwide tsunami hazard assessment project in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

    2014-12-01

    In 2012, we began a project of nationwide Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) in Japan to support various measures (Fujiwara et al., 2013, JpGU; Hirata et al., 2014, AOGS). The most important strategy in the nationwide PTHA is predominance of aleatory uncertainty in the assessment but use of epistemic uncertainty is limited to the minimum, because the number of all possible combinations among epistemic uncertainties diverges quickly when the number of epistemic uncertainties in the assessment increases ; we consider only a type of earthquake occurrence probability distribution as epistemic uncertainty. We briefly show outlines of the nationwide PTHA as follows; (i) we consider all possible earthquakes in the future, including those that the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japanese Government, already assessed. (ii) We construct a set of simplified earthquake fault models, called "Characterized Earthquake Fault Models (CEFMs)", for all of the earthquakes by following prescribed rules (Toyama et al., 2014, JpGU; Korenaga et al., 2014, JpGU). (iii) For all of initial water surface distributions caused by a number of the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. (iv) Finally, we integrate information about the tsunamis calculated from the numerous CEFMs to get nationwide tsunami hazard assessments. One of the most popular representations of the integrated information is a tsunami hazard curve for coastal tsunami heights, incorporating uncertainties inherent in tsunami simulation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU). We will show a PTHA along the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan, based on approximately 1,800 tsunami sources located within the subduction zone along the Japan Trench, as a prototype of the nationwide PTHA. This study is supported by part of the research

  6. The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

  7. Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

  8. Fault Imaging with High-Resolution Seismic Reflection for Earthquake Hazard and Geothermal Resource Assessment in Reno, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Frary, Roxanna

    2012-05-05

    The Truckee Meadows basin is situated adjacent to the Sierra Nevada microplate, on the western boundary of the Walker Lane. Being in the transition zone between a range-front normal fault on the west and northwest-striking right-lateral strike slip faults to the east, there is no absence of faulting in this basin. The Reno- Sparks metropolitan area is located in this basin, and with a signi cant population living here, it is important to know where these faults are. High-resolution seismic reflection surveys are used for the imaging of these faults along the Truckee River, across which only one fault was previously mapped, and in southern Reno near and along Manzanita Lane, where a swarm of short faults has been mapped. The reflection profiles constrain the geometries of these faults, and suggest additional faults not seen before. Used in conjunction with depth to bedrock calculations and gravity measurements, the seismic reflection surveys provide de nitive locations of faults, as well as their orientations. O sets on these faults indicate how active they are, and this in turn has implications for seismic hazard in the area. In addition to seismic hazard, the faults imaged here tell us something about the conduits for geothermal fluid resources in Reno.

  9. California Earthquakes: Science, Risks, and the Politics of Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shedlock, Kaye M.

    "Politics" should be the lead word in the sub-title of this engrossing study of the emergence and growth of the California and federal earthquake hazard reduction infrastructures. Beginning primarily with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, scientists, engineers, and other professionals cooperated and clashed with state and federal officials, the business community, " boosters," and the general public to create programs, agencies, and commissions to support earthquake research and hazards mitigation. Moreover, they created a "regulatory-state" apparatus that governs human behavior without sustained public support for its creation. The public readily accepts that earthquake research and mitigation are government responsibilities. The government employs or funds the scientists, engineers, emergency response personnel, safety officials, building inspectors, and others who are instrumental in reducing earthquake hazards. This book clearly illustrates how, and why all of this came to pass.

  10. Workshop on evaluation of earthquake hazards and risk in the Puget Sound and Portland areas

    SciTech Connect

    Hays, W.W.; Kitzmiller, C.

    1988-01-01

    Three tasks were undertaken in the forum provided by the workshop: (1) assessing the present state-of-knowledge of earthquake hazards in Washington and Oregon including scientific, engineering, and hazard-reduction components; (2) determining the need for additional scientific, engineering, and societal response information to implement an effective earthquake-hazard reduction program; and (3) developing a strategy for implementing programs to reduce potential earthquake losses and to foster preparedness and mitigation. Thirty-five papers were given at the workshop and each of these has been abstracted for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Data Base (EDB). In addition, the volume includes a glossary of technical terms used in earthquake engineering in Appendix A.

  11. Seismic hazard from instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes: Application to the Tibet-Himalayan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Vladimir; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik

    2015-08-01

    We present a new approach to assessment of regional seismic hazard, which accounts for observed (instrumentally recorded and historic) earthquakes, as well as for seismic events simulated for a significantly longer period of time than that of observations. We apply this approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Tibet-Himalayan region. The large magnitude synthetic events, which are consistent with the geophysical and geodetic data, together with the observed earthquakes are employed for the Monte-Carlo PSHA. Earthquake scenarios for hazard assessment are generated stochastically to sample the magnitude and spatial distribution of seismicity, as well as the distribution of ground motion for each seismic event. The peak ground acceleration values, which are estimated for the return period of 475 yr, show that the hazard level associated with large events in the Tibet-Himalayan region significantly increases if the long record of simulated seismicity is considered in the PSHA. The magnitude and the source location of the 2008 Wenchuan M = 7.9 earthquake are among the range of those described by the seismic source model accepted in our analysis. We analyze the relationship between the ground motion data obtained in the earthquake's epicentral area and the obtained PSHA estimations using a deaggregation technique. The proposed approach provides a better understanding of ground shaking due to possible large-magnitude events and could be useful for risk assessment, earthquake engineering purposes, and emergency planning.

  12. Guide and Checklist for Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2003

    The recommendations included in this document are intended to reduce seismic hazards associated with the non-structural components of schools buildings, including mechanical systems, ceiling systems, partitions, light fixtures, furnishings, and other building contents. It identifies potential earthquake hazards and provides recommendations for…

  13. Earthquake probabilities: theoretical assessments and reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    It is of common knowledge that earthquakes are complex phenomena which classification and sizing remain serious problems of the contemporary seismology. In general, their frequency-magnitude distribution exhibit power law scaling. This scaling differs significantly when different time and/or space domains are considered. At the scale of a particular earthquake rupture zone the frequency of similar size events is usually estimated to be about once in several hundred years. Evidently, contemporary seismology does not possess enough reported instrumental data for any reliable quantification of an earthquake probability at a given place of expected event. Regretfully, most of the state-of-the-art theoretical approaches to assess probability of seismic events are based on trivial (e.g. Poisson, periodic, etc) or, conversely, delicately-designed (e.g. STEP, ETAS, etc) models of earthquake sequences. Some of these models are evidently erroneous, some can be rejected by the existing statistics, and some are hardly testable in our life-time. Nevertheless such probabilistic counts including seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting when used on practice eventually mislead to scientifically groundless advices communicated to decision makers and inappropriate decisions. As a result, the population of seismic regions continues facing unexpected risk and losses. The international project Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard, mainly probabilistic, methodology to assess seismic hazard. It is generally accepted that earthquakes are infrequent, low-probability events. However, they keep occurring at earthquake-prone areas with 100% certainty. Given the expectation of seismic event once per hundred years, the daily probability of occurrence on a certain date may range from 0 to 100% depending on a choice of probability space (which is yet unknown and, therefore, made by a subjective lucky chance

  14. Tank farms hazards assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Broz, R.E.

    1994-09-30

    Hanford contractors are writing new facility specific emergency procedures in response to new and revised US Department of Energy (DOE) Orders on emergency preparedness. Emergency procedures are required for each Hanford facility that has the potential to exceed the criteria for the lowest level emergency, an Alert. The set includes: (1) a facility specific procedure on Recognition and Classification of Emergencies, (2) area procedures on Initial Emergency Response and, (3) an area procedure on Protective Action Guidance. The first steps in developing these procedures are to identify the hazards at each facility, identify the conditions that could release the hazardous material, and calculate the consequences of the releases. These steps are called a Hazards Assessment. The final product is a document that is similar in some respects to a Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The document could br produced in a month for a simple facility but could take much longer for a complex facility. Hanford has both types of facilities. A strategy has been adopted to permit completion of the first version of the new emergency procedures before all the facility hazards Assessments are complete. The procedures will initially be based on input from a task group for each facility. This strategy will but improved emergency procedures in place sooner and therefore enhance Hanford emergency preparedness. The purpose of this document is to summarize the applicable information contained within the Waste Tank Facility ``Interim Safety Basis Document, WHC-SD-WM-ISB-001`` as a resource, since the SARs covering Waste Tank Operations are not current in all cases. This hazards assessment serves to collect, organize, document and present the information utilized during the determination process.

  15. Development of Earthquake Hazard Maps in Managua, Nicaragua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishii, O.; Katayama, I.; Strauch, W.; Guzman, C.; Chávez, G.

    2007-05-01

    We developed 1/50,000 scale earthquake hazard maps in Managua by deterministic and probabilistic approach, compiling available data. This is a part of the result obtained by the technical cooperation - The Study for Establishment of Base Maps for GIS in the Republic of Nicaragua - during the year from 2004 to 2006 executed by Japan International Cooperation Agency with INETER as a counterpart agency upon the request by the government of the Republic of Nicaragua. We firstly collected and studied available earthquake catalogues. Among these catalogues, the historical earthquake catalogue by INETER (1505 - 1992) and instrumental earthquake catalogue by INETER (1993 - 2001) are the most comprehensive. Therefore these catalogs are selected as the base catalog and corrected and improved using other catalogues. Finally, these catalogs are unified, and then separated into two new catalogs namely Volcanic Catalogs and Non-volcanic Catalog. Then we considered three types of scenario earthquakes. For earthquake scenario from active fault, we used Aeropuerto Fault and Cofradia Fault. The location and magnitude of each fault are determined using USGS fault map and empirical formula on its length and magnitude. For earthquake scenario by volcanic earthquake, we used earthquake from Masaya volcano (M=6.0) and the one from Apyoque volcano (M=6.0). Magnitudes of these earthquakes are estimated from the past reports of the hazards. As for the probabilistic approach, based on the newly improved the Non-volcanic Catalog, hazard curve analysis is performed at the Center of Managua City. As a result, the 100-years-return period earthquake is obtained as 110 gal with the standard deviation of 28 gal. For the ground motion attenuation, three types of attenuation laws were tested to estimate maximum accelerations and MM Intensities at Managua by major earthquakes. As a result, we found that combined law of Joyner-Boore (1981) and Young et al. (1997) are appropriately applicable to the

  16. Reinvestigating the Mission Creek Fault: Holocene slip rates in the northern Coachella Valley and implications for southern California earthquake hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wersan, Louis Samuel

    Coachella Valley. Constraining active slip on the Mission Creek fault has significant implications for southern California fault modeling and earthquake hazard assessment, and allows quantification of maximum strain transfer in the Coachella Valley from the Mission Creek fault to the Eastern California Shear Zone (˜9 mm/yr).

  17. Unacceptable Risk: Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in One California School District. Hazard Mitigation Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

    Earthquakes are a perpetual threat to California's school buildings. School administrators must be aware that hazard mitigation means much more than simply having a supply of water bottles in the school; it means getting everyone involved in efforts to prevent tragedies from occurring in school building in the event of an earthquake. The PTA in…

  18. Deterministic and Nondeterministic Behavior of Earthquakes and Hazard Mitigation Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanamori, H.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes exhibit both deterministic and nondeterministic behavior. Deterministic behavior is controlled by length and time scales such as the dimension of seismogenic zones and plate-motion speed. Nondeterministic behavior is controlled by the interaction of many elements, such as asperities, in the system. Some subduction zones have strong deterministic elements which allow forecasts of future seismicity. For example, the forecasts of the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake and the 2012 Mw=7.6, Costa Rica, earthquake are good examples in which useful forecasts were made within a solid scientific framework using GPS. However, even in these cases, because of the nondeterministic elements uncertainties are difficult to quantify. In some subduction zones, nondeterministic behavior dominates because of complex plate boundary structures and defies useful forecasts. The 2011 Mw=9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake may be an example in which the physical framework was reasonably well understood, but complex interactions of asperities and insufficient knowledge about the subduction-zone structures led to the unexpected tragic consequence. Despite these difficulties, broadband seismology, GPS, and rapid data processing-telemetry technology can contribute to effective hazard mitigation through scenario earthquake approach and real-time warning. A scale-independent relation between M0 (seismic moment) and the source duration, t, can be used for the design of average scenario earthquakes. However, outliers caused by the variation of stress drop, radiation efficiency, and aspect ratio of the rupture plane are often the most hazardous and need to be included in scenario earthquakes. The recent development in real-time technology would help seismologists to cope with, and prepare for, devastating tsunamis and earthquakes. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity and modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices.

  19. PUREX facility hazards assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sutton, L.N.

    1994-09-23

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (PUREX) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. Operation of PUREX is the responsibility of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for PUREX. DOE Order 5500.3A requires an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification. In October of 1990, WHC was directed to place PUREX in standby. In December of 1992 the DOE Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management authorized the termination of PUREX and directed DOE-RL to proceed with shutdown planning and terminal clean out activities. Prior to this action, its mission was to reprocess irradiated fuels for the recovery of uranium and plutonium. The present mission is to establish a passively safe and environmentally secure configuration at the PUREX facility and to preserve that condition for 10 years. The ten year time frame represents the typical duration expended to define, authorize and initiate follow-on decommissioning and decontamination activities.

  20. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  1. Seismic survey probes urban earthquake hazards in Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, M. A.; Brocher, T. M.; Hyndman, R. D.; Trehu, A. M.; Weaver, C. S.; Creager, K. C.; Crosson, R. S.; Parsons, T.; Cooper, A. K.; Mosher, D.; Spence, G.; Zelt, B. C.; Hammer, P. T.; ten Brink, U.; Pratt, T. L.; Miller, K. C.; Childs, J. R.; Cochrane, G. R.; Chopra, S.; Walia, R.

    A multidisciplinary seismic survey earlier this year in the Pacific Northwest is expected to reveal much new information about the earthquake threat to U.S. and Canadian urban areas there. A disastrous earthquake is a very real possibility in the region.The survey, known as the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS), engendered close cooperation among geologists, biologists, environmental groups, and government agencies. It also succeeded in striking a fine balance between the need to prepare for a great earthquake and the requirement to protect a coveted marine environment while operating a large airgun array.

  2. Seismic survey probes urban earthquake hazards in Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Brocher, T.M.; Hyndman, R.D.; Trehu, A.M.; Weaver, C.S.; Creager, K.C.; Crosson, R.S.; Parsons, T.; Cooper, A. K.; Mosher, D.; Spence, G.; Zelt, B.C.; Hammer, P.T.; Childs, J. R.; Cochrane, G.R.; Chopra, S.; Walia, R.

    1999-01-01

    A multidisciplinary seismic survey earlier this year in the Pacific Northwest is expected to reveal much new information about the earthquake threat to U.S. and Canadian urban areas there. A disastrous earthquake is a very real possibility in the region. The survey, known as the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS), engendered close cooperation among geologists, biologists, environmental groups, and government agencies. It also succeeded in striking a fine balance between the need to prepare for a great earthquake and the requirement to protect a coveted marine environment while operating a large airgun array.

  3. The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

  4. Comprehensive baseline hazard assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, S.B.; Amundson, T.M.

    1994-10-01

    Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) has developed and implemented a cost effective/value-added program/process that assists in fulfilling key elements of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration`s (OSHA) voluntary Protection Program (VPP) requirements. WHC is the prime contractor for the US Department of Energy (US DOE) at the Hanford site, located in Richland, Washington. The site consists of over 560 square miles, contains over 1100 facilities and has an employment of approximately 18,000. WHC is currently in the application review phase for the US DOE equivalent of OSHA-VPP ``merit`` program status. The program involves setting up a team consisting of industrial safety and health (industrial hygienists) professionals, members of the maintenance and operations work force, and facility management. This team performs a workplace hazard characterization/analysis and then applies a risk assessment approach to prioritize observed and potential hazards in need of abatement. The process involves using checklists that serve as a guide for evaluation/inspection criteria. Forms are used to document meetings, field observations, instrument calibration and performance testing. Survey maps are generated to document quality records of measurement results. A risk assessment code matrix with a keyword index was developed to facilitate consistency. The end product is useful in communicating hazards to facility management, health and safety professionals, audit/appraisal groups, and most importantly, facility workers.

  5. Central US earthquake catalog for hazard maps of Memphis, Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, R.L.; Mueller, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    An updated version of the catalog that was used for the current national probabilistic seismic-hazard maps would suffice for production of large-scale hazard maps of the Memphis urban area. Deaggregation maps provide guidance as to the area that a catalog for calculating Memphis hazard should cover. For the future, the Nuttli and local network catalogs could be examined for earthquakes not presently included in the catalog. Additional work on aftershock removal might reduce hazard uncertainty. Graphs of decadal and annual earthquake rates suggest completeness at and above magnitude 3 for the last three or four decades. Any additional work on completeness should consider the effects of rapid, local population changes during the Nation's westward expansion. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Seismic hazard assessments at Islamic Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, A. E.; Deif, A.; Abdel Hafiez, H. E.

    2015-12-01

    Islamic Cairo is one of the important Islamic monumental complexes in Egypt, near the center of present-day metropolitan Cairo. The age of these buildings is up to one thousand years. Unfortunately, many of the buildings are suffering from huge mishandling that may lead to mass damage. Many buildings and masjids were partially and totally collapsed because of 12th October 1992 Cairo earthquake that took place at some 25 km from the study area with a magnitude Mw = 5.8. Henceforth, potential damage assessments there are compulsory. The deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to predict the expected future large earthquakes' strong-motion characteristics in the study area. The current study started with compiling the available studies concerned with the distribution of the seismogenic sources and earthquake catalogs. The deterministic method is used to provide a description of the largest earthquake effect on the area of interest, while the probabilistic method, on the other hand, is used to define the uniform hazard curves at three time periods 475, 950, 2475 years. Both deterministic and probabilistic results were obtained for bedrock conditions and the resulted hazard levels were deaggregated to identify the contribution of each seismic source to the total hazard. Moreover, the results obtained show that the expected seismic activities combined with the present situation of the buildings pose high alert to rescue both the cultural heritage and expected human losses.

  7. Earthquake induced landslide hazard field observatory in the Avcilar peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigarre, Pascal; Coccia, Stella; Theoleyre, Fiona; Ergintav, Semih; Özel, Oguz; Yalçinkaya, Esref; Lenti, Luca; Martino, Salvatore; Gamba, Paolo; Zucca, Francesco; Moro, Marco

    2015-04-01

    SAR temporal series has been undertaken, providing global but accurate Identification and characterization of gravitational phenomena covering the aera. Evaluation of the resolution and identification of landslide hazard-related features using space multispectral/hyperspectral image data has been realized. Profit has been gained from a vast drilling and geological - geotechnical survey program undertaken by the Istanbul Metropolitan Area, to get important data to complete the geological model of the landslide as well as one deep borehole to set up permanent instrumentation on a quite large slow landslide, fully encircled by a dense building environment. The selected landslide was instrumented in 2014 with a real-time observational system including GPS, rainfall, piezometer and seismic monitoring. Objective of this permanent monitoring system is three folds: first to detect and quantify interaction between seismic motion, rainfall and mass movement, building a database opened to the scientific community in the future, second to help to calibrate dynamic numerical geomechanical simulations intending to study the sensitivity to seismic loading, and last but not least. Last but not least important geophysical field work has been conducted to assess seismic site effects already noticed during the 1999 earthquake .Data, metadata and main results are from now progressively compiled and formatted for appropriate integration in the cloud monitoring infrastructure for data sharing.

  8. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-11-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  9. 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes

  10. 2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes

  11. Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Earthquake Hazards in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratliff, J.; Wood, N. J.; Weaver, C. S.

    2011-12-01

    Communities in Washington State are potentially threatened by earthquakes from many sources, including the Cascadia Subduction zone and myriad inland faults (Seattle fault, Tacoma fault, etc.). The USGS Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the State of Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division, has been working to identify Washington community vulnerability to twenty-one earthquake scenarios to provide assistance for mitigation, preparedness, and outreach. We calculate community earthquake exposure and sensitivity by overlaying demographic and economic data with peak ground acceleration values of each scenario in a geographic information system. We summarize community and county earthquake vulnerability to assist emergency managers by the number of earthquake scenarios affecting each area, as well as the number of residents, occupied households, businesses (individual and sector), and employees in each predicted Modified Mercalli Intensity value (ranging from V to IX). Percentages based on community, county, and scenario totals also provide emergency managers insight to community sensitivity to the earthquake scenarios. Results indicate significant spatial and temporal residential variations as well as spatial economic variations in exposure and sensitivity to earthquake hazards in the State of Washington, especially for communities west of the Cascade Range.

  12. An intelligent simulation system for earthquake disaster assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Aiping; Wen, Aihua

    2009-05-01

    This paper presents an intelligent simulation system for an earthquake disaster assessment system based on a development platform of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). This system is designed to identify the weakness of the structure and infrastructure system in pre-earthquake conditions, quickly assess earthquake damage and make an intelligent emergency response for the public and government during the earthquake and post-earthquake. The system includes the following functions: intelligent seismic hazard assessment, earthquake damage and loss evaluation, optimizing emergency response and post-earthquake recovering plan. The principle, design criteria, structure, functions and test results of this system are described in this paper. Based on its functional characteristics, this system is composed of four parts: an information database, analytical modules, an intelligent decision-making sub-system and a friendly user interface. There are 132 coverages and 78 analytical modules included in the information database and analytical modules. With this system, seismic disaster mitigation strategies can be verified during a pre-earthquake, and be executed at the time of an earthquake and post-earthquake; the earthquake resisting capacities for an entire city and all of its communities can be greatly enhanced. To check its reliability and its efficiency, this system has been tested based on a scenario earthquake event in one city, and the related results have also been given in this paper. At the present, this system has been installed and used in Daqing City, China. After running for almost 10 years, this system has successfully been used in rehearsing of seismic disaster mitigation and post-earthquake emergency response. Simultaneously, an optimizing aseismic retrofitting plan in Daqing City has been executed based on results from this system.

  13. Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Sheki-Ismayilli Region, Azerbaijan

    SciTech Connect

    Ayyubova, Leyla J.

    2006-03-23

    Seismic hazard assessment is an important factor in disaster management of Azerbaijan Republic. The Shaki-Ismayilli region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Azerbaijan. According to the seismic zoning map, the region is located in intensity IX zone. Large earthquakes in the region take place along the active faults. The seismic activity of the Shaki-Ismayilli region is studied using macroseismic and instrumental data, which cover the period between 1250 and 2003. Several principal parameters of earthquakes are analyzed: maximal magnitude, energetic class, intensity, depth of earthquake hypocenter, and occurrence. The geological structures prone to large earthquakes are determined, and the dependence of magnitude on the fault length is shown. The large earthquakes take place mainly along the active faults. A map of earthquake intensity has been developed for the region, and the potential seismic activity of the Shaki-Ismayilli region has been estimated.

  14. Geophysical variables and behavior: LX. Lonquimay and Alhué, Chile: tension from volcanic and earthquake hazard.

    PubMed

    Larraín, P; Simpson-Housley, P

    1990-02-01

    This study assesses the effect of trait anxiety scores on subjects' responses to volcanic eruption hazard and earthquake hazard in Lonquimay and Alhué, respectively. Lonquimay is located in the southern Chilean Andes and Alhué is located in central Chile in the Coastal Range. The former was afflicted by a volcanic eruption which commenced on Christmas Day 1988 and the latter by an earthquake on March 3, 1985. Expectations of high damage and fear from a radio hazard prediction were associated with high trait-anxiety scores in the Alhué sample while positive adjustments to extenuate the hazard effect reached significance for the Lonquimay sample. PMID:2326130

  15. Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sauber, J.

    2006-01-01

    In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on

  16. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude Assessments by Japanese Government Committees (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history and such a gigantic earthquake was not foreseen around Japan. After the 2011 disaster, various government committees in Japan have discussed and assessed the maximum credible earthquake size around Japan, but their values vary without definite consensus. I will review them with earthquakes along the Nankai Trough as an example. The Central Disaster Management Council, under Cabinet Office, set up a policy for the future tsunami disaster mitigation. The possible future tsunamis are classified into two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, for which saving people's lives is the first priority with soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared. The assessments of L1 and L2 events are left to local governments. The CDMC also assigned M 9.1 as the maximum size of earthquake along the Nankai trough, then computed the ground shaking and tsunami inundation for several scenario earthquakes. The estimated loss is about ten times the 2011 disaster, with maximum casualties of 320,000 and economic loss of 2 trillion dollars. The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion, under MEXT, was set up after the 1995 Kobe earthquake and has made long-term forecast of large earthquakes and published national seismic hazard maps. The future probability of earthquake occurrence, for example in the next 30 years, was calculated from the past data of large earthquakes, on the basis of characteristic earthquake model. The HERP recently revised the long-term forecast of Naknai trough earthquake; while the 30 year probability (60 - 70 %) is similar to the previous estimate, they noted the size can be M 8 to 9, considering the variability of past

  17. Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

    2001-12-01

    Natural hazard courses are playing an increasingly important role in college and university earth science curricula. Students' intrinsic curiosity about the subject and the potential to make the course relevant to the interests of both science and non-science students make natural hazards courses popular additions to a department's offerings. However, one vital aspect of "real-life" natural hazard management that has not translated well into the classroom is the real-time nature of both events and response. The lack of a way to entrain students into the event/response mode has made implementing such real-time activities into classroom activities problematic. Although a variety of web sites provide near real-time postings of natural hazards, students essentially learn of the event after the fact. This is particularly true for earthquakes and other events with few precursors. As a result, the "time factor" and personal responsibility associated with natural hazard response is lost to the students. We have integrated the real-time aspects of earthquake response into two natural hazard courses at Penn State (a 'general education' course for non-science majors, and an upper-level course for science majors) by implementing a modification of the USGS Earthworm system. The Earthworm Database Management System (E-DBMS) catalogs current global seismic activity. It provides earthquake professionals with real-time email/cell phone alerts of global seismic activity and access to the data for review/revision purposes. We have modified this system so that real-time response can be used to address specific scientific, policy, and social questions in our classes. As a prototype of using the E-DBMS in courses, we have established an Earthworm server at Penn State. This server receives national and global seismic network data and, in turn, transmits the tailored alerts to "on-duty" students (e-mail, pager/cell phone notification). These students are responsible to react to the alarm

  18. Mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic base isolation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, C.Y.

    1994-06-01

    This paper deals with mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic base-isolation systems. A numerical algorithm is described for system response analysis of isolated structures with laminated elastomer bearings. The focus of this paper is on the adaptation of a nonlinear constitutive equation for the isolation bearing, and the treatment of foundation embedment for the soil-structure-interaction analysis. Sample problems are presented to illustrate the mitigating effect of using base-isolation systems.

  19. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami hazard assessments for nuclear power stations (NPS) in Japan had been conducted by a deterministic method, but probabilistic methods are being adopted following the accident of Fukushima Daiichi NPS. The deterministic tsunami hazard assessment (DTHA), proposed by Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2002 (Yanagisawa et al., 2007, Pageoph) considers various uncertainties by parameter studies. The design tsunami height at Fukushima NPS was set as 6.1 m, based on parameter studies by varying location, depth, and strike, dip and slip angles of the 1938 off-Fukushima earthquake (M 7.4). The maximum tsunami height for a hypothetical "tsunami earthquake" off Fukushima, similar to the 1896 Sanriku earthquake (Mt 8.2), and that for the 869 Jogan earthquake model (Mw 8.4) were estimated as 15.7 m and 8.9 m, respectively, before the 2011 accident (TEPCO report, 2012). The actual tsunami height at the Fukushima NPS on March 11, 2011 was 12 to 16 m. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been also proposed by JSCE (An'naka et al., 2007, Pageoph), and recently adopted in "Implementation Standard of Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NPPs" published in 2012 by Atomic Energy Society of Japan. In PTHA, tsunami hazard curves, or probability of exeedance for tsunami heights, are constructed by integrating over aleatory uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainties are treated as branches of logic trees. The logic-tree branches for the earthquake source include the earthquake type, magnitude range, recurrence interval and the parameters of BPT distribution for the recurrent earthquakes. Because no "tsunami earthquake" was recorded off the Fukushima NPS, whether or not a "tsunami earthquake" occurs along the Japan trench off Fukushima, was a one of logic-tree branches, and the weight was determined by experts' opinions. Possibilities for multi-segment earthquakes are now added as logic-tree branches, after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which is considered as

  20. Urban Earthquake Shaking and Loss Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Zulfikar, C.; Durukal, E.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    This study, conducted under the JRA-3 component of the EU NERIES Project, develops a methodology and software (ELER) for the rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses the Euro-Mediterranean region. This multi-level methodology developed together with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. GRM Risk Management, Inc. of Istanbul serves as sub-contractor tor the coding of the ELER software. The methodology encompasses the following general steps: 1. Finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic data base and basic source parameters, and if and when possible, by the estimation of fault rupture parameters from rapid inversion of data from on-line stations. 2. Estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters through region specific ground motion attenuation relationships and using shear wave velocity distributions.(Shake Mapping) 4. Incorporation of strong ground motion and other empirical macroseismic data for the improvement of Shake Map 5. Estimation of the losses (damage, casualty and economic) at different levels of sophistication (0, 1 and 2) that commensurate with the availability of inventory of human built environment (Loss Mapping) Level 2 analysis of the ELER Software (similar to HAZUS and SELENA) is essentially intended for earthquake risk assessment (building damage, consequential human casualties and macro economic loss quantifiers) in urban areas. The basic Shake Mapping is similar to the Level 0 and Level 1 analysis however, options are available for more sophisticated treatment of site response through externally entered data and improvement of the shake map through incorporation

  1. Awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards at school

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraò, Angela; Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi

    2014-05-01

    Schools have a fundamental role in broadening the understanding of natural hazard and risks and in building the awareness in the community. Recent earthquakes in Italy and worldwide, have clearly demonstrated that the poor perception of seismic hazards diminishes the effectiveness of mitigation countermeasures. Since years the Seismology's department of OGS is involved in education projects and public activities to raise awareness about earthquakes. Working together with teachers we aim at developing age-appropriate curricula to improve the student's knowledge about earthquakes, seismic safety, and seismic risk reduction. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last years are here presented. We show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects to kids, but we illustrate also some teaching interventions for high school students. During the past years we lectured classes, we led laboratory and field activities, and we organized summer stages for selected students. In the current year we are leading a project aimed at training high school students on seismic safety through a multidisciplinary approach that involves seismologists, engineers and experts of safety procedures. To combine the objective of dissemination of earthquake culture, also through the knowledge of the past seismicity, with that of a safety culture, we use innovative educational techniques and multimedia resources. Students and teachers, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, organize a combination of hands-on activities for understanding earthquakes in the lab through cheap tools and instrumentations At selected schools we provided the low cost seismometers of the QuakeCatcher network (http://qcn.stanford.edu) for recording earthquakes, and we trained teachers to use such instruments in the lab and to analyze recorded data. Within the same project we are going to train

  2. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  3. Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

    2014-05-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum

  4. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

  5. Seismic hazard assessment in Aswan, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deif, A.; Hamed, H.; Ibrahim, H. A.; Abou Elenean, K.; El-Amin, E.

    2011-12-01

    The study of earthquake activity and seismic hazard assessment around Aswan is very important due to the proximity of the Aswan High Dam. The Aswan High Dam is based on hard Precambrian bedrock and is considered to be the most important project in Egypt from the social, agricultural and electrical energy production points of view. The seismotectonic settings around Aswan strongly suggest that medium to large earthquakes are possible, particularly along the Kalabsha, Seiyal and Khor El-Ramla faults. The seismic hazard for Aswan is calculated utilizing the probabilistic approach within a logic-tree framework. Alternative seismogenic models and ground motion scaling relationships are selected to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard values on rock were calculated to create contour maps for eight ground motion spectral periods and for a return period of 475 years, which is deemed appropriate for structural design standards in the Egyptian building codes. The results were also displayed in terms of uniform hazard spectra for rock sites at the Aswan High Dam for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. In addition, the ground-motion levels are also deaggregated at the dam site, in order to provide insight into which events are the most important for hazard estimation. The peak ground acceleration ranges between 36 and 152 cm s-2 for return periods of 475 years (equivalent to 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years). Spectral hazard values clearly indicate that compared with countries of high seismic risk, the seismicity in the Aswan region can be described as low at most sites to moderate in the area between the Kalabsha and Seyial faults.

  6. Nationwide Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Mumladze, T.

    2014-12-01

    The work presents a framework for assessment of seismic hazards on national level for the Georgia. Based on a historical review of the compilation of seismic hazard zoning maps for the Georgia became evident that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation. The methodology for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard used here includes the following steps: produce comprehensive catalogue of historical earthquakes (up to 1900) and the period of instrumental observations with uniform scale of magnitudes; produce models of seismic source zones (SSZ) and their parameterization; develop appropriate ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) models; develop seismic hazard curves for spectral amplitudes at each period and maps in digital format. Firstly, the new seismic catalog of Georgia was created, with 1700 eqs from ancient times on 2012, Mw³4.0. Secondly, were allocated seismic source zones (SSZ). The identification of area SSZ was obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. In constructing the SSZ, the slope of the appropriate active fault plane, the width of the dynamic influence of the fault, power of seismoactive layer are taken into account. Finally each SSZ was defined with the parameters: the geometry, the percentage of focal mechanism, predominant azimuth and dip angle values, activity rates, maximum magnitude, hypocenter depth distribution, lower and upper seismogenic depth values. Thirdly, seismic hazard maps were calculated based on modern approach of selecting and ranking global and regional ground motion prediction equation for region. Finally, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of ground acceleration were calculated for the territory of Georgia. On the basis of obtained area seismic sources probabilistic seismic hazard maps were calculated showing peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA) at

  7. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  8. Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

    1997-01-01

    Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

  9. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment in Albania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muco, B.; Kiratzi, A.; Sulstarova, E.; Kociu, S.; Peci, V.; Scordilis, E.

    2002-12-01

    Albania is one of the coutries with highest sesimicity in Europe.The history of instrumental monitoring of seismicity in this country started since 1968 with the setting up of the first seismographic station of Tirana and more effectively after the beginning of the operation of the Albanian Seismological Network in 1976. There is a rich evidence that during two thousands years Albania has been hit by many disastrous earthquakes. The highest magnitude estimated is 7.2. After the end of Communist era and opening of the country, a boom of constructions started in Albania continuing even now. It makes more indispensabile the producing of accurate seismic hazard maps for preventing the damages of future probable earthquakes. Some efforts have already been done in seismic hazard assessment(Sulstarova et al., 1980; Kociu, 2000; Muco et al., 2002). In this approach, the probabilistic technique has been used in one joint work between Seismological Institute of Tirana, Albania and Department of Geophysics of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, into the framework of NATO SfP project "SeisAlbania". The earthquake catalogue adopted was specifically conceived for this seismic hazard analysis and contains 530 events with magnitude M>4.5 from the year 58 up to 2000. We divided the country in 8 seismotectonic zones giving for them the most representative fault characteristics. The computer code used for hazard calculation was OHAZ, developed from the Geophysical Survey of Slovenia and the attenuation models used were Ambraseys et al., 1996; Sabetta and Pugliese, 1996 and Margaris et al., 2001. The hazard maps are obtained for 100, 475, 2375 and 4746 return periods, for rock soil condition. Analyzing the map of PGA values for a return period of 475 years, there are separated 5 zones with different escalation of PGA values: 1)the zone with PGA (0.20 - 0.24 g) 1.8 percent of Albanian territory, 2)the zone with PGA (0.16 - 0.20 g) 22.6 percent of Albanian territory, 3)the

  10. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-02-28

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

  11. Lessons on Seismic Hazard Estimation from the 2003 Bingol, Turkey Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalbant, S. S.; Steacy, S.; McCloskey, J.

    2003-12-01

    In a 2002 paper the stress state along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) was estimated by the addition of long term tectonic loading to the static stressing effect of a series of large historical earthquakes. The results clearly indicated two areas of particular concern. The first extended along the EAFZ between the cities of Kahraman Maras and Malatya and the second along the trend of the EAFZ between the cities of Elazig and Bingol. The Bingol (M6.4, 1 May 2003) earthquake occurred within this second area with a focal mechanism which was consistent with left lateral rupture of a buried segment of the EAFZ, prompting suggestions that this represented a success for the idea of using Coulomb Stress Modelling to assess seismic hazard. This success, however, depended on the confirmation of the orientation of the earthquake fault; in the event, and in the absence of surface ruptures, aftershock distributions unambiguously showed that the event was a right lateral failure on an unmapped structure conjugate to the EAFZ. The Bingol earthquake was, therefore, not encouraged by the stress field modelled in the 2002 study. Here we reflect on the lessons learned from this case. We identify three possible reasons for the discrepancy between the calculations and the occurrence of the Bingol earthquake. Firstly, historical earthquakes used in the 2002 study may have been incorrectly modelled in either size or location. Secondly, earthquakes not included in the study, due to either their size or occurrence time, may have had a significant effect on the stress field. Or, finally, the secular stress used to load the faults was inappropriate. We argue that it is through a combination of historical seismology guided and constrained by structural geology, directed paleoseismology and coupled with stress modelling which has been informed by detailed GPS data that an integrated seismic hazard program might have the best chance of success.

  12. Assessing Earthquake Risks in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2014-10-01

    Megaquakes, which are subduction earthquakes with magnitudes of 8 or greater, occur about every 500 years on average along the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. The earthquakes and related tsunamis can cause enormous damage. However, they may not be the most urgent seismic threat in the region, according to John Clague, a professor and expert on natural hazards at Simon Fraser University (SFU) in British Columbia.

  13. How Can Museum Exhibits Enhance Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Resiliency?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olds, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Creating a natural disaster-ready community requires interoperating scientific, technical, and social systems. In addition to the technical elements that need to be in place, communities and individuals need to be prepared to react when a natural hazard event occurs. Natural hazard awareness and preparedness training and education often takes place through informal learning at science centers and formal k-12 education programs as well as through awareness raising via strategically placed informational tsunami warning signs and placards. Museums and science centers are influential in raising science literacy within a community, however can science centers enhance earthquake and tsunami resiliency by providing hazard science content and preparedness exhibits? Museum docents and informal educators are uniquely situated within the community. They are transmitters and translators of science information to broad audiences. Through interaction with the public, docents are well positioned to be informants of the knowledge beliefs, and feelings of science center visitors. They themselves are life-long learners, both constantly learning from the museum content around them and sharing this content with visitors. They are also members of a community where they live. In-depth interviews with museum informal educators and docents were conducted at a science center in coastal Pacific Northwest. This region has a potential to be struck by a great 9+ Mw earthquake and subsequent tsunami. During the interviews, docents described how they applied learning from natural hazard exhibits at a science visitor center to their daily lives. During the individual interviews, the museum docents described their awareness (knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors) of natural hazards where they live and work, the feelings evoked as they learned about their hazard vulnerability, the extent to which they applied this learning and awareness to their lives, such as creating an evacuation plan, whether

  14. Using a physics-based earthquake simulator to evaluate seismic hazard in NW Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    khodaverdian, A.; Zafarani, H.; Rahimian, M.

    2016-04-01

    NW Iran is a region of active deformation in the Eurasia-Arabia collision zone. This high strain field has caused intensive faulting accompanied by several major (M 6> 6.5) earthquakes as it is evident from historical records. Whereas seismic data (i.e. instrumental and historical catalogs) are either short, or inaccurate and inhomogeneous, physics-based long-term simulations are beneficial to better assess seismic hazard. In the present study, a deterministic seismicity model, which consists of major active faults, is first constructed, and used to generate a synthetic catalog of large-magnitude (M 6> 5.5) earthquakes. The frequency-magnitude distribution of the synthetic earthquake catalog, which is based on the physical characteristic and slip rate of the mapped faults, is consistent with the empirical distribution evaluated using record of instrumental and historical events. The obtained results are also in accordance with paleoseismic studies and other independent kinematic deformation models of the Iranian Plateau. Using the synthetic catalog, characteristic magnitude for all 16 active faults in the study area is determined. Magnitude and epicenter of these earthquakes are comparable with the historical records. Large earthquake recurrence times and their variations are evaluated, either for an individual fault or for the region as a whole. Goodness-of-fitness tests revealed that recurrence times can be well described by the Weibull distribution. Time-dependent conditional probabilities for large earthquakes in the study area are also estimated for different time intervals The resulting synthetic catalog can be utilized as a useful dataset for hazard and risk assessment instead of short, incomplete, and inhomogeneous available catalogs.

  15. Using a physics-based earthquake simulator to evaluate seismic hazard in NW Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodaverdian, A.; Zafarani, H.; Rahimian, M.

    2016-07-01

    NW Iran is a region of active deformation in the Eurasia-Arabia collision zone. This high strain field has caused intensive faulting accompanied by several major (M > 6.5) earthquakes as it is evident from historical records. Whereas seismic data (i.e. instrumental and historical catalogues) are either short, or inaccurate and inhomogeneous, physics-based long-term simulations are beneficial to better assess seismic hazard. In this study, a deterministic seismicity model, which consists of major active faults, is first constructed, and used to generate a synthetic catalogue of large-magnitude (M > 5.5) earthquakes. The frequency-magnitude distribution of the synthetic earthquake catalogue, which is based on the physical characteristic and slip rate of the mapped faults, is consistent with the empirical distribution evaluated using record of instrumental and historical events. The obtained results are also in accordance with palaeoseismic studies and other independent kinematic deformation models of the Iranian Plateau. Using the synthetic catalogue, characteristic magnitude for all 16 active faults in the study area is determined. Magnitude and epicentre of these earthquakes are comparable with the historical records. Large earthquake recurrence times and their variations are evaluated, either for an individual fault or for the region as a whole. Goodness-of-fitness tests revealed that recurrence times can be well described by the Weibull distribution. Time-dependent conditional probabilities for large earthquakes in the study area are also estimated for different time intervals. The resulting synthetic catalogue can be utilized as a useful data set for hazard and risk assessment instead of short, incomplete and inhomogeneous available catalogues.

  16. Cruise report for 01-99-SC: southern California earthquake hazards project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Reid, Jane A.; Sliter, Ray W.; Holton, David; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Fisher, Michael A.; Childs, Jonathan R.

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes occurring in the offshore areas that have significant potential to impact the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region. The project activity is supported through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the Geologic Division of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is a component of the Geologic Division's Science Strategy under Goal 1—Conduct Geologic Hazard Assessments for Mitigation Planning (Bohlen et al., 1998). The project research is specifically stated under Activity 1.1.2 of the Science Strategy: Earthquake Hazard Assessments and Loss Reduction Products in Urban Regions. This activity involves "research, seismic and geodetic monitoring, field studies, geologic mapping, and analyses needed to provide seismic hazard assessments of major urban centers in earthquake-prone regions including adjoining coastal and offshore areas." The southern California urban areas, which form the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin, are among a few specifically designated for special emphasis under the Division's science strategy (Bohlen et al., 1998). The primary objective of the project is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this objective, we are conducting field investigations to observe the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (Fig. 1). In addition, acoustic imaging should help determine the subsurface dimensions of the faults and identify the size and frequency of submarine landslides, both of which are necessary for evaluating the potential for

  17. Numerical earthquake model of the 20 April 2015 southern Ryukyu subduction zone M6.4 event and its impact on seismic hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Shiann-Jong

    2015-10-01

    The M6.4 earthquake that took place on the 20 April 2015 off the shore of eastern Taiwan was the largest event in the vicinity of Taiwan during 2015. The mainshock was located in the southern Ryukyu subduction zone, which is the interface between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. People in Taipei experienced strong ground shaking for more than 40 s, even though the epicenter was located more than 150 km away. In order to understand the origin of ground motions from this earthquake and how it caused such strong shaking in Taipei, a numerical earthquake model is analyzed, including models of source rupture and wave propagation. First, a joint source inversion was performed using teleseismic body wave and local ground motion data. Source inversion results show that a large slip occurred near the hypocenter, which rapidly released seismic energy in the first 2 s. Then, the rupture propagated toward the shallow fault plane. A large amount of seismic energy was released during this rupture stage that slipped for more than 8 s before the end of the rupture. The estimated stress drop is 2.48 MPa, which is consistent with values for subduction zone earthquakes. Forward simulation using this inverted source rupture model and a 3D seismic velocity model based on the spectral-element method was then performed. Results indicate that the strong ground motion in Taipei resulted from two factors: (1) the Taipei basin amplification effect and (2) the specific source radiation pattern. The results of this numerical earthquake model imply that future subduction zone events that occur in offshore eastern Taiwan are likely to cause relatively strong ground shaking in northern Taiwan, especially in the Taipei metropolitan area.

  18. Lower-bound magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    SciTech Connect

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W. and Associates, Inc., Mountain View, CA )

    1989-10-01

    This report provides technical information to determine the lower-bound earthquake magnitude (LBM) for use in probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) computations that are applied to nuclear plant applications. The evaluations consider the seismologic characteristics of earthquake experience at similar facilities and insights from probabilistic risk analysis. The recommendations for LBM satisfy the two basic precepts: (1) there is a reasonable engineering assurance that the likelihood of damage due to earthquakes smaller than the LBM is negligible, and (2) any small risk due to earthquakes smaller than the LBM is compensated by conservatisms in PSH results for larger earthquakes. Theoretical and empirical ground motion studies demonstrate that ground shaking duration and spectral shape are a strong function of earthquake magnitude. Small earthquakes have short duration and spectral shapes centered at high frequencies as compared to nuclear power plant design spectra which are typical of moderate and large earthquakes. Analysis of earthquake experience data shows damage to heavy industrial facilities, taken as analogs to nuclear plant structures and components, occurs for earthquakes having moment magnitude M larger than 5.1. Probabilistic seismic risk and margins studies show nuclear plant structures and adequately anchored ductile components to be rugged for moderate-size earthquakes with broad design-type spectral shapes. They may, therefore, be considered rugged for small earthquakes. Finally, nonlinear analysis of the damage effectiveness of strong-motion recordings shows that potential damage does not occur for earthquakes smaller than about M5.6. These results support a conservative LBM of M5.0 for application to nuclear power plant PSH assessments. 144 refs., 78 figs., 34 tabs.

  19. Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness.

    PubMed

    Becker, Julia S; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M; Ronan, Kevin R

    2013-09-01

    Prior research has found little or no direct link between beliefs about earthquake risk and household preparedness. Furthermore, only limited work has been conducted on how people's beliefs influence the nature and number of preparedness measures adopted. To address this gap, 48 qualitative interviews were undertaken with residents in three urban locations in New Zealand subject to seismic risk. The study aimed to identify the diverse hazard and preparedness-related beliefs people hold and to articulate how these are influenced by public education to encourage preparedness. The study also explored how beliefs and competencies at personal, social, and environmental levels interact to influence people's risk management choices. Three main categories of beliefs were found: hazard beliefs; preparedness beliefs; and personal beliefs. Several salient beliefs found previously to influence the preparedness process were confirmed by this study, including beliefs related to earthquakes being an inevitable and imminent threat, self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, personal responsibility, responsibility for others, and beliefs related to denial, fatalism, normalization bias, and optimistic bias. New salient beliefs were also identified (e.g., preparedness being a "way of life"), as well as insight into how some of these beliefs interact within the wider informational and societal context. PMID:23339741

  20. Earthquake Scaling and Development of Ground Motion Prediction for Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, K.; Yen, Y.

    2011-12-01

    For earthquake hazard mitigation toward risk management, integration study from development of source model to ground motion prediction is crucial. The simulation for high frequency component ( > 1 Hz) of strong ground motions in the near field was not well resolved due to the insufficient resolution in velocity structure. Using the small events as Green's functions (i.e. empirical Green's function (EGF) method) can resolve the problem of lack of precise velocity structure to replace the path effect evaluation. If the EGF is not available, a stochastic Green's function (SGF) method can be employed. Through characterizing the slip models derived from the waveform inversion, we directly extract the parameters needed for the ground motion prediction in the EGF method or the SGF method. The slip models had been investigated from Taiwan dense strong motion and global teleseismic data. In addition, the low frequency ( < 1 Hz) can obtained numerically by the Frequency-Wavenumber (FK) method. Thus, broadband frequency strong ground motion can be calculated by a hybrid method that combining a deterministic FK method for the low frequency simulation and the EGF or SGF method for high frequency simulation. Characterizing the definitive source parameters from the empirical scaling study can provide directly to the ground motion simulation. To give the ground motion prediction for a scenario earthquake, we compiled the earthquake scaling relationship from the inverted finite-fault models of moderate to large earthquakes in Taiwan. The studies show the significant involvement of the seismogenic depth to the development of rupture width. In addition to that, several earthquakes from blind fault show distinct large stress drop, which yield regional high PGA. According to the developing scaling relationship and the possible high stress drops for earthquake from blind faults, we further deploy the hybrid method mentioned above to give the simulation of the strong motion in

  1. Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) - Progress Report, 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Haase, Jennifer L.; Moore, David W.

    2009-01-01

    Maps of surficial geology, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard, and liquefaction potential index have been prepared by various members of the Evansville Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project for seven quadrangles in the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, metropolitan areas. The surficial geologic maps feature 23 types of surficial geologic deposits, artificial fill, and undifferentiated bedrock outcrop and include alluvial and lake deposits of the Ohio River valley. Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard and liquefaction hazard mapping is made possible by drawing on a wealth of information including surficial geologic maps, water well logs, and in-situ testing profiles using the cone penetration test, standard penetration test, down-hole shear wave velocity tests, and seismic refraction tests. These data were compiled and collected with contributions from the Indiana Geological Survey, Kentucky Geological Survey, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey, and Purdue University. Hazard map products are in progress and are expected to be completed by the end of 2009, with a public roll out in early 2010. Preliminary results suggest that there is a 2 percent probability that peak ground accelerations of about 0.3 g will be exceeded in much of the study area within 50 years, which is similar to the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for a firm rock site value. Accelerations as high as 0.4-0.5 g may be exceeded along the edge of the Ohio River basin. Most of the region outside of the river basin has a low liquefaction potential index (LPI), where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 (that is, there is a high potential for liquefaction) for a M7.7 New Madrid type event is only 20-30 percent. Within the river basin, most of the region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 for a New Madrid type event is 80-100 percent.

  2. Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bela, J.

    2015-12-01

    The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the

  3. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  4. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  5. Secondary impact hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-06-01

    A series of light gas gun shots (4 to 7 km/sec) were performed with 5 mg nylon and aluminum projectiles to determine the size, mass, velocity, and spatial distribution of spall and ejecta from a number of graphite/epoxy targets. Similar determinations were also performed on a few aluminum targets. Target thickness and material were chosen to be representative of proposed Space Station structure. The data from these shots and other information were used to predict the hazard to Space Station elements from secondary particles resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids and orbital debris on the Space Station. This hazard was quantified as an additional flux over and above the primary micrometeoroid and orbital debris flux that must be considered in the design process. In order to simplify the calculations, eject and spall mass were assumed to scale directly with the energy of the projectile. Other scaling systems may be closer to reality. The secondary particles considered are only those particles that may impact other structure immediately after the primary impact. The addition to the orbital debris problem from these primary impacts was not addressed. Data from this study should be fed into the orbital debris model to see if Space Station secondaries make a significant contribution to orbital debris. The hazard to a Space Station element from secondary particles above and beyond the micrometeoroid and orbital debris hazard is categorized in terms of two factors: (1) the 'view factor' of the element to other Space Station structure or the geometry of placement of the element, and (2) the sensitivity to damage, stated in terms of energy. Several example cases were chosen, the Space Station module windows, windows of a Shuttle docked to the Space Station, the habitat module walls, and the photovoltaic solar cell arrays. For the examples chosen the secondary flux contributed no more than 10 percent to the total flux (primary and secondary) above a given calculated

  6. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation and Real-Time Warnings of Tsunamis and Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanamori, Hiroo

    2015-09-01

    With better understanding of earthquake physics and the advent of broadband seismology and GPS, seismologists can forecast the future activity of large earthquakes on a sound scientific basis. Such forecasts are critically important for long-term hazard mitigation, but because stochastic fracture processes are complex, the forecasts are inevitably subject to large uncertainties, and unexpected events will inevitably occur. Recent developments in real-time seismology helps seismologists cope with and prepare for such unexpected events, including tsunamis and earthquakes. For a tsunami warning, the required warning time is fairly long (usually 5 min or longer) and enables use of a rigorous method for this purpose. Significant advances have already been made. In contrast, early warning of earthquakes is far more challenging because the required warning time is very short (as short as three seconds). Despite this difficulty the methods used for regional warnings have advanced substantially, and several systems have been already developed and implemented. A future strategy for more challenging, rapid (a few second) warnings, which are critically important for saving properties and lives, is discussed.

  7. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smit, Ansie; Kijko, Andrzej

    2016-04-01

    A question that frequently arises with seismic hazard assessment is why are our assessments so poor? Often the answer is that in many cases the standard applied methodologies do not take into account the nature of seismic event catalogs. In reality these catalogues are incomplete with uncertain magnitude estimates and a significant discrepancy between the empirical data and applied occurrence model. Most probabilistic seismic hazard analysis procedures require knowledge of at least three seismic source parameters: the mean seismic activity rate λ, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, and the area-characteristic (seismogenic source) maximum possible earthquake magnitude Mmax. In almost all currently used seismic hazard assessment procedures utilizing these three parameters, it's explicitly assumed that all three remain constant over a specified time and space. However, closer examination of most earthquake catalogues indicates that there are significant spatial and temporal variations in the seismic activity rate λ as well as the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. In the proposed methodology the maximum likelihood estimation of these earthquake hazard parameters takes into account the incompleteness of catalogues, uncertainty in the earthquake magnitude determination as well as the uncertainty associated with the applied earthquake occurrence models. The uncertainty in the earthquake occurrence models are introduced by assuming that both, the mean, seismic activity rate λ and the b-value of Gutenberg-Richter are random variables, each described by the Gamma distribution. The approach results in the extension of the classic frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relation and the Poisson distribution of number of earthquakes, with their compounded counterparts. The proposed procedure is applied in the estimation of the seismic parameters for the area of Ceres-Tulbagh, South Africa, which experienced the strongest earthquake in the country's recorded history. In this example it is

  8. Large Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said

    2010-05-01

    The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large earthquakes in the past. Most of these earthquakes are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic earthquake occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The earthquake provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic earthquakes (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the modelling of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.

  9. Earthquake and Flood Risk Assessments for Europe and Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murnane, R. J.; Daniell, J. E.; Ward, P.; Winsemius, H.; Tijssen, A.; Toro, J.

    2015-12-01

    We report on a flood and earthquake risk assessment for 32 countries in Europe and Central Asia with a focus on how current flood and earthquake risk might evolve in the future due to changes in climate, population, and GDP. The future hazard and exposure conditions used for the risk assessment are consistent with selected IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Estimates of 2030 and 2080 population and GDP are derived using the IMAGE model forced by the socioeconomic conditions associated with the SSPs. Flood risk is modeled using the probabilistic GLOFRIS global flood risk modeling cascade which starts with meteorological fields derived from reanalysis data or climate models. For 2030 and 2080 climate conditions, the meteorological fields are generated from five climate models forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future flood risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with the SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by a flood when a grid cell receives any depth of flood inundation. The earthquake hazard is quantified using a 10,000-year stochastic catalog of over 15.8 million synthetic earthquake events of at least magnitude 5. Ground motion prediction and estimates of local site conditions are used to determine PGA. Future earthquake risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with all five SSPs. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by an earthquake when a grid cell experiences ground motion equaling or exceeding MMI VI. For most countries, changes in exposure alter flood risk to a greater extent than changes in climate. For both flood and earthquake, the spread in risk grows over time. There are large uncertainties due to the methodology; however, the results are not meant to be definitive. Instead they will be used to initiate discussions with governments regarding efforts to manage disaster risk.

  10. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  11. Hazard maps of earthquake induced permanent displacements validated by site numerical simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vessia, Giovanna; Pisano, Luca; Parise, Mario; Tromba, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    Hazard maps of seismically induced instability at the urban scale can be drawn by means of GIS spatial interpolation tools starting from (1) a Digital terrain model (DTM) and (2) geological and geotechnical hydro-mechanical site characterization. These maps are commonly related to a fixed return period of the natural phenomenon under study, or to a particular hazard scenario from the most significant past events. The maps could be used to guide the planning activity as well as the emergency actions, but the main limit of such maps is that typically no reliability analyses is performed. Spatial variability and uncertainties in subsoil properties, poor description of geomorphological evidence of active instability, and geometrical approximations and simplifications in DTMs, among the others, could be responsible for inaccurate maps. In this study, a possible method is proposed to control and increase the overall reliability of an hazard scenario map for earthquake-induced slope instability. The procedure can be summarized as follows: (1) GIS Statistical tools are used to improve the spatial distribution of the hydro-mechanical properties of the surface lithologies; (2) Hazard maps are drawn from the preceding information layer on both groundwater and mechanical properties of surficial deposits combined with seismic parameters propagated by means of Ground Motion Propagation Equations; (3) Point numerical stability analyses carried out by means of the Finite Element Method (e.g. Geostudio 2004) are performed to anchor hazard maps prediction to point quantitative analyses. These numerical analyses are used to generate a conversion scale from urban to point estimates in terms of permanent displacements. Although this conversion scale differs from case to case, it could be suggested as a general method to convert the results of large scale map analyses to site hazard assessment. In this study, the procedure is applied to the urban area of Castelfranci (Avellino province

  12. Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

  13. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status of the Global Earthquake model (GEM) initiative in the region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray

    2013-04-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga earthquake (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 earthquake (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall earthquake hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other earthquake prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest earthquake hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard model in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate earthquake risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.

  14. Regional liquefaction hazard evaluation following the 2010-2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Begg, John; Brackley, Hannah; Irwin, Marion; Grant, Helen; Berryman, Kelvin; Dellow, Grant; Scott, David; Jones, Katie; Barrell, David; Lee, Julie; Townsend, Dougal; Jacka, Mike; Harwood, Nick; McCahon, Ian; Christensen, Steve

    2013-04-01

    Following the damaging 4 Sept 2010 Mw7.1 Darfield Earthquake, the 22 Feb 2011 Christchurch Earthquake and subsequent damaging aftershocks, we completed a liquefaction hazard evaluation for c. 2700 km2 of the coastal Canterbury region. Its purpose was to distinguish at a regional scale areas of land that, in the event of strong ground shaking, may be susceptible to damaging liquefaction from areas where damaging liquefaction is unlikely. This information will be used by local government for defining liquefaction-related geotechnical investigation requirements for consent applications. Following a review of historic records of liquefaction and existing liquefaction assessment maps, we undertook comprehensive new work that included: a geologic context from existing geologic maps; geomorphic mapping using LiDAR and integrating existing soil map data; compilation of lithological data for the surficial 10 m from an extensive drillhole database; modelling of depth to unconfined groundwater from existing subsurface and surface water data. Integrating and honouring all these sources of information, we mapped areas underlain by materials susceptible to liquefaction (liquefaction-prone lithologies present, or likely, in the near-surface, with shallow unconfined groundwater) from areas unlikely to suffer widespread liquefaction damage. Comparison of this work with more detailed liquefaction susceptibility assessment based on closely spaced geotechnical probes in Christchurch City provides a level of confidence in these results. We tested our susceptibility map by assigning a matrix of liquefaction susceptibility rankings to lithologies recorded in drillhole logs and local groundwater depths, then applying peak ground accelerations for four earthquake scenarios from the regional probabilistic seismic hazard model (25 year return = 0.13g; 100 year return = 0.22g; 500 year return = 0.38g and 2500 year return = 0.6g). Our mapped boundary between liquefaction-prone areas and areas

  15. Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitharam, T. G.; Sil, Arjun

    2014-06-01

    Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G-R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.

  16. A New Proposal for Tsunami Hazard Map Explicitly Indicating Uncertainty of Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukutani, Y.; Suppasri, A.; Imamura, F.

    2014-12-01

    The tsunami caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake mainly inundated the Tohoku coastal areas, most of which exceeded inundation area specified in tsunami hazard maps. A report by the Japanese government for the IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety clearly stated that there is difficulty of quantitatively assessing natural disaster risk associated with a rare event such as tsunami because of uncertainty, and sufficient efforts have not been made so far to enhance the public confidence in the risk assessment by explicitly indicating the uncertinty of the assessment. Based on the statement, we propose a new method for explicitly indicating the uncertainty of tsunami hazard assessment in the tsunami hazard map. Firstly, we estimated stochastic wave height along the Tohoku coastal areas using a method for probabilistic tsuami hazard assessment in order to quantitatively assess the uncertainty of coastal wave heights. We selected eleven earthquake-generic areas along the Japan trench as the areas that could generate tsunamis. Secondly, in order to calculate tsunami inundation area due to the average coastal wave height for one return period, we identified the earthquake fault that generate the target wave height and conducted numerical simulation using non-linear long-wave equations with inputting their fault parameters. On the other hand, in order to calculate tsunami inundation area due to fractile coastal wave height that consider the uncertainty of the assessment, we generated a hypothetical earthquake fault that the dislocation of which was uniformly increased or decreased by multiplying a constant number according to the change of each fractile wave height, and conducted numerical simulation in the same way. As a result, there were big differences among tsunami inudation areas due to 0.05 fractile, simple average and 0.95 fractile wave height at coastal points even though the assumed wave height generate by one target return period. A preliminary

  17. Tsunami hazard warning and risk prediction based on inaccurate earthquake source parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Abilova, Kamilla

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the issues related to underestimation of the earthquake source parameters in the context of tsunami early warning and tsunami risk assessment. The magnitude of a very large event may be underestimated significantly during the early stage of the disaster, resulting in the issuance of incorrect tsunami warnings. Tsunamigenic events in the Tohoku region of Japan, where the 2011 tsunami occurred, are focused on as a case study to illustrate the significance of the problems. The effects of biases in the estimated earthquake magnitude on tsunami loss are investigated using a rigorous probabilistic tsunami loss calculation tool that can be applied to a range of earthquake magnitudes by accounting for uncertainties of earthquake source parameters (e.g., geometry, mean slip, and spatial slip distribution). The quantitative tsunami loss results provide valuable insights regarding the importance of deriving accurate seismic information as well as the potential biases of the anticipated tsunami consequences. Finally, the usefulness of rigorous tsunami risk assessment is discussed in defining critical hazard scenarios based on the potential consequences due to tsunami disasters.

  18. Echo-sounding method aids earthquake hazard studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    1995-01-01

    Dramatic examples of catastrophic damage from an earthquake occurred in 1989, when the M 7.1 Lorna Prieta rocked the San Francisco Bay area, and in 1994, when the M 6.6 Northridge earthquake jolted southern California. The surprising amount and distribution of damage to private property and infrastructure emphasizes the importance of seismic-hazard research in urbanized areas, where the potential for damage and loss of life is greatest. During April 1995, a group of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Tennessee, using an echo-sounding method described below, is collecting data in San Antonio Park, California, to examine the Monte Vista fault which runs through this park. The Monte Vista fault in this vicinity shows evidence of movement within the last 10,000 years or so. The data will give them a "picture" of the subsurface rock deformation near this fault. The data will also be used to help locate a trench that will be dug across the fault by scientists from William Lettis & Associates.

  19. Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Guam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arcas, D.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.

    2008-12-01

    The island of Guam is located approximately 1500 miles south of Japan, in the vicinity of the Mariana Trench. It is surrounded in close proximity by three subduction zones, Nankai-Taiwan, East Philippines and Mariana Trench that pose a considerable near to intermediate field tsunami threat. Tsunami catalogues list 14 tsunamigenic earthquake with Mw≥8.0 since 1900 only in this region, (Soloviev and Go, 1974; Lander, 1993; Iida, 1984; Lander and Lowell, 2002), however the island has not been significantly affected by some of the largest far-field events of the past century, such as the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Chile, and the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. An assessment of the tsunami threat to the island from both near and far field sources, using forecast tools originally developed at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for real-time forecasting of tsunamis is presented here. Tide gauge records from 1952 Kamchatka, 1964 Alaska, and 1960 Chile earthquakes at Apra Harbor are used to validate our model set up, and to explain the limited impact of these historical events on Guam. Identification of worst-case scenarios, and determination of tsunamigenic effective source regions are presented for five vulnerable locations on the island via a tsunami sensitivity study. Apra Harbor is the site of a National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge and the biggest harbor on the island. Tumon Bay, Pago Bay, Agana Bay and Inarajan Bay are densely populated areas that require careful investigation. The sensitivity study shows that earthquakes from Eastern Philippines present a major threat to west coast facing sites, whereas the Marina Trench poses the biggest concern to the east coast facing sites.

  20. A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Hiwa; Türker, Tügba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we used the program for seismic hazard Bayesian estimate which was elaborated by Alexey Lyubushin. Our study is the next in the sequence of applications of this software to seismic hazard assessment in different regions of the world. However, earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (M_{ max }), β value and seismic activity rate or intensity ( λ) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Iranian Plateau have been evaluated with the help of a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue during the period 1900-2014 with M_{{w}} ≥4.0. The estimated M_{ max } values varies between 6.25 and 8.37. Lowest value is observed in the Zagros foredeep whereas highest value is observed in the Makran. Also, it is observed that there is a strong relationship between the estimated maximum earthquake magnitudes estimated by Bayesian approach and maximum observed magnitudes. Moreover, in this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in 15 different source regions. Based on computed earthquake hazard parameters, the prerequisite guides to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Iranian Plateau. The Makran and East Iran show earthquake magnitude greater than 8.0 in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other regions, which declares that these regions are more susceptible to occurrence of large earthquakes. The outcomes which obtained in the study may have useful implications in the probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Iranian Plateau.

  1. A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Hiwa; Türker, Tügba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-03-01

    In this study, we used the program for seismic hazard Bayesian estimate which was elaborated by Alexey Lyubushin. Our study is the next in the sequence of applications of this software to seismic hazard assessment in different regions of the world. However, earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (M_{ max }), β value and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Iranian Plateau have been evaluated with the help of a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue during the period 1900-2014 with M_{w} ≥4.0. The estimated M_{ max } values varies between 6.25 and 8.37. Lowest value is observed in the Zagros foredeep whereas highest value is observed in the Makran. Also, it is observed that there is a strong relationship between the estimated maximum earthquake magnitudes estimated by Bayesian approach and maximum observed magnitudes. Moreover, in this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in 15 different source regions. Based on computed earthquake hazard parameters, the prerequisite guides to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Iranian Plateau. The Makran and East Iran show earthquake magnitude greater than 8.0 in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other regions, which declares that these regions are more susceptible to occurrence of large earthquakes. The outcomes which obtained in the study may have useful implications in the probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Iranian Plateau.

  2. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-06-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake (M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake (M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  3. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  4. Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslide in Wenchuan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Shu; Hu, Deyong; Zhao, Wenji

    2010-11-01

    The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, collapsed a great many houses and injured hundreds of thousands of people. Undoubtedly, it can be predicted that secondary earthquake landslides will draw much attention during a long time after the earthquake due to the severe geological hazard. In order to remove threat from the secondary disasters effectively, this study used techniques of remote sensing and GIS to generate susceptibility maps, taking the case of Wenchuan County. Seven factors controlling landslide occurrence have been taken account into the susceptibility assessment, including elevation, slop, aspect, lithology, seismic intensity, distance to faults and rivers. According to the probability that predicts the possibility of landslide occurrence calculated applying information value method and logistic regression separately, the study zone was ultimately categorized into five classes, specifically, "extremely low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high". These results have been proved to reflect closely the spatial distributions of landslides in the study area.

  5. Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslide in Wenchuan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Shu; Hu, Deyong; Zhao, Wenji

    2009-09-01

    The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, collapsed a great many houses and injured hundreds of thousands of people. Undoubtedly, it can be predicted that secondary earthquake landslides will draw much attention during a long time after the earthquake due to the severe geological hazard. In order to remove threat from the secondary disasters effectively, this study used techniques of remote sensing and GIS to generate susceptibility maps, taking the case of Wenchuan County. Seven factors controlling landslide occurrence have been taken account into the susceptibility assessment, including elevation, slop, aspect, lithology, seismic intensity, distance to faults and rivers. According to the probability that predicts the possibility of landslide occurrence calculated applying information value method and logistic regression separately, the study zone was ultimately categorized into five classes, specifically, "extremely low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high". These results have been proved to reflect closely the spatial distributions of landslides in the study area.

  6. Tsunami Hazard in Crescent City, California from Kuril Islands earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.

    2007-12-01

    On November 15, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a series of tsunami surges generated by the M = 8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake causing an estimated 9.7 million (US dollars) in damages to the small boat basin. This was the first significant tsunami loss on US territory since the 1964 Alaska tsunami. The damage occurred nearly 8 hours after the official tsunami alert bulletins had been cancelled. The tsunami caused no flooding and did not exceed the ambient high tide level. All of the damage was caused by strong currents, estimated at 12 to 15 knots, causing the floating docks to be pinned against the pilings and water to flow over them. The event highlighted problems in warning criteria and communications for a marginal event with the potential for only localized impacts, the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami, and the particular exposure of the Crescent City harbor area to tsunamis. It also illustrated the poor understanding of local officials of the duration of tsunami hazard. As a result of the November tsunami, interim changes were made by WCATWC to address localized hazards in areas like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 when a M = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the Kuril Islands, a formal procedure was in place for hourly conference calls between WCATWC, California State Office of Emergency Services officials, local weather Service Offices and local emergency officials, significantly improving the decision making process and the communication among the federal, state and local officials. Kuril Island tsunamis are relatively common at Crescent City. Since 1963, five tsunamis generated by Kuril Island earthquakes have been recorded on the Crescent City tide gauge, two with amplitudes greater than 0.5 m. We use the MOST model to simulate the 2006, 2007 and 1994 events and to examine the difference between damaging and non-damaging events at Crescent City. Small changes in the angle of the rupture zone results can result

  7. The OPAL Project: Open source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James

    2010-05-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS

  8. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    headquarters until 9 p.m.: families, school classes with and without teachers, civil protection groups, journalists. This initiative, built up in a few weeks, had a very large feedback, also due to the media highlighting the presumed prediction. Although we could not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake in central Italy (with effects in Rome) we tried to explain the meaning of short term earthquake prediction vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Despite many people remained with the fear (many decided to take a day off and leave the town or stay in public parks), we contributed to reduce this feeling and therefore the social cost of this strange Roman day. Moreover, another lesson learned is that these (fortunately sporadic) circumstances, when people's attention is high, are important opportunities for science communication. We thank all the INGV colleagues who contributed to the May 11 Open Day, in particular the Press Office, the Educational and Outreach laboratory, the Graphics Laboratory and SissaMedialab. P.S. no large earthquake happened

  9. Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

    2013-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

  10. Initial steps to the early warning systems in Bulgaria - earthquakes, tsunamis, marine hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranguelov, Boyko

    2013-04-01

    Several projects on the early warning systems in Bulgaria are presented - some of them in phase of execution, some - in preparation and assessment. The work presents these projects related to the early warning systems (EWS). They are under execution in Bulgaria with wide participation of the international teams. The projects' parameters - partners involved, coordinators, main tasks and objectives, time duration, intended equipment, specific objectives and beneficiaries are discussed. The progress of these projects is presented. The projects themselves - according their acronyms are: MARINEGEOHAZARDS (mainly focused on marine hazards in the Black Sea - earthquakes and tsunamis). DACEA (about possibility of Vrancea seismic source earthquakes to be warned in Bulgaria and Romania). ESNET (about support of decision makers in case of earthquakes and other coastal hazards). SIMORA (about a local monitoring system of strong ground motions and its relevancy to the EWS). A comparison study about the level of reliability and security, as well as, some legislation issues are under investigations. The web-sites and other dissemination tools (like newsletters,webs,etc.) are also under presentation. The goal is to show the specific objectives, their effective execution and the research support to the society and decision makers.

  11. Earthquake and tsunami hazard in West Sumatra: integrating science, outreach, and local stakeholder needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaughey, J.; Lubis, A. M.; Huang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Hill, E. M.; Eriksson, S.; Sieh, K.

    2012-04-01

    The Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) is building partnerships with local to provincial government agencies, NGOs, and educators in West Sumatra to inform their policymaking, disaster-risk-reduction, and education efforts. Geodetic and paleoseismic studies show that an earthquake as large as M 8.8 is likely sometime in the coming decades on the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust. This earthquake and its tsunami would be devastating for the Mentawai Islands and neighboring areas of the western Sumatra coast. The low-lying coastal Sumatran city of Padang (pop. ~800,000) has been the object of many research and outreach efforts, especially since 2004. Padang experienced deadly earthquakes in 2007 and 2009 that, though tragedies in their own right, served also as wake-up calls for a larger earthquake to come. However, there remain significant barriers to linking science to policy: extant hazard information is sometimes contradictory or confusing for non-scientists, while turnover of agency leadership and staff means that, in the words of one local advocate, "we keep having to start from zero." Both better hazard knowledge and major infrastructure changes are necessary for risk reduction in Padang. In contrast, the small, isolated villages on the outlying Mentawai Islands have received relatively fewer outreach efforts, yet many villages have the potential for timely evacuation with existing infrastructure. Therefore, knowledge alone can go far toward risk reduction. The tragic October 2010 Mentawai tsunami has inspired further disaster-risk reduction work by local stakeholders. In both locations, we are engaging policymakers and local NGOs, providing science to help inform their work. Through outreach contacts, the Mentawai government requested that we produce the first-ever tsunami hazard map for their islands; this aligns well with scientific interests at EOS. We will work with the Mentawai government on the presentation and explanation of the hazard map, as

  12. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  13. Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

  14. Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

    SciTech Connect

    Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

    2008-07-08

    In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.

  15. Sedimentary Basins: A Deeper Look at Seattle and Portland's Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, M.; Frankel, A. D.; Wirth, E. A.; Vidale, J. E.; Han, J.

    2015-12-01

    to assess the shaking hazards for Portland due to local earthquakes and great earthquakes on the CSZ.

  16. Extending the quantitative assessment of industrial risks to earthquake effects.

    PubMed

    Campedel, Michela; Cozzani, Valerio; Garcia-Agreda, Anita; Salzano, Ernesto

    2008-10-01

    In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural-technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold-up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes. PMID:18657068

  17. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  18. Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

    2014-05-01

    The development of effective mitigation strategies requires scientifically consistent estimates of seismic ground motion; recent analysis, however, showed that the performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) are very unsatisfactory in anticipating ground shaking from future large earthquakes. Moreover, due to their basic heuristic limitations, the standard PSHA estimates are by far unsuitable when dealing with the protection of critical structures (e.g. nuclear power plants) and cultural heritage, where it is necessary to consider extremely long time intervals. Nonetheless, the persistence in resorting to PSHA is often explained by the need to deal with uncertainties related with ground shaking and earthquakes recurrence. We show that current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data, allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of PSHA. The advanced approach considered in this study, namely the NDSHA (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), is based on the physically sound definition of a wide set of credible scenario events and accounts for uncertainties and earthquakes recurrence in a substantially different way. The expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes is defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves. The efficiency of the NDSHA computational codes allows for the fast generation of hazard maps at the regional scale even on a modern laptop computer. At the scenario scale, quick parametric studies can be easily

  19. Monogenetic volcanic hazards and assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connor, C.; Connor, L. J.; Richardson, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Many of the Earth's major cities are build on the products of monogenetic volcanic eruptions and within geologically active basaltic volcanic fields. These cities include Mexico City (Mexico), Auckland (New Zealand), Melbourne (Australia), and Portland (USA) to name a few. Volcanic hazards in these areas are complex, and involve the potential formation of new volcanic vents and associated hazards, such as lava flows, tephra fallout, and ballistic hazards. Hazard assessment is complicated by the low recurrence rate of volcanism in most volcanic fields. We have developed a two-stage process for probabilistic modeling monogenetic volcanic hazards. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents based on kernel density estimation and recurrence rate of volcanism using Monte Carlo simulation and accounting for uncertainties in age determinations. The second step is convolution of this spatial density / recurrence rate model with hazard codes for modeling lava inundation, tephra fallout, and ballistic impacts. A methodology is presented using this two-stage approach to estimate lava flow hazard in several monogenetic volcanic fields, including at a nuclear power plant site near the Shamiram Plateau, a Quaternary volcanic field in Armenia. The location of possible future vents is determined by estimating spatial density from a distribution of 18 mapped vents using a 2-D elliptical Gaussian kernel function. The SAMSE method, a modified asymptotic mean squared error approach, uses the distribution of known eruptive vents to optimally determine a smoothing bandwidth for the Gaussian kernel function. The result is a probability map of vent density. A large random sample (N=10000) of vent locations is drawn from this probability map. For each randomly sampled vent location, a lava flow inundation model is executed. Lava flow input parameters (volume and average thickness) are determined from distributions fit to field observations of the low

  20. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mourabit, T.; Abou Elenean, K. M.; Ayadi, A.; Benouar, D.; Ben Suleman, A.; Bezzeghoud, M.; Cheddadi, A.; Chourak, M.; ElGabry, M. N.; Harbi, A.; Hfaiedh, M.; Hussein, H. M.; Kacem, J.; Ksentini, A.; Jabour, N.; Magrin, A.; Maouche, S.; Meghraoui, M.; Ousadou, F.; Panza, G. F.; Peresan, A.; Romdhane, N.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.

    2014-04-01

    North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2 × 0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement ( D max), maximum velocity ( V max), and design ground acceleration.

  1. Earthquake stress triggers, stress shadows, and seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    Many aspects of earthquake mechanics remain an enigma at the beginning of the twenty-first century. One potential bright spot is the realization that simple calculations of stress changes may explain some earthquake interactions, just as previous and ongoing studies of stress changes have begun to explain human- induced seismicity. This paper, which is an update of Harris1, reviews many published works and presents a compilation of quantitative earthquake-interaction studies from a stress change perspective. This synthesis supplies some clues about certain aspects of earthquake mechanics. It also demonstrates that much work remains to be done before we have a complete story of how earthquakes work.

  2. Examples of Communicating Uncertainty Applied to Earthquake Hazard and Risk Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    When is communicating scientific modeling uncertainty effective? One viewpoint is that the answer depends on whether one is communicating hazard or risk: hazards have quantifiable uncertainties (which, granted, are often ignored), yet risk uncertainties compound uncertainties inherent in the hazard with those of the risk calculations, and are thus often larger. Larger, yet more meaningful: since risk entails societal impact of some form, consumers of such information tend to have a better grasp of the potential uncertainty ranges for loss information than they do for less-tangible hazard values (like magnitude, peak acceleration, or stream flow). I present two examples that compare and contrast communicating uncertainty for earthquake hazard and risk products. The first example is the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) ShakeMap system, which portrays the uncertain, best estimate of the distribution and intensity of shaking over the potentially impacted region. The shaking intensity is well constrained at seismograph locations yet is uncertain elsewhere, so shaking uncertainties are quantified and presented spatially. However, with ShakeMap, it seems that users tend to believe what they see is accurate in part because (1) considering the shaking uncertainty complicates the picture, and (2) it would not necessarily alter their decision-making. In contrast, when it comes to making earthquake-response decisions based on uncertain loss estimates, actions tend to be made only after analysis of the confidence in (or source of) such estimates. Uncertain ranges of loss estimates instill tangible images for users, and when such uncertainties become large, intuitive reality-check alarms go off, for example, when the range of losses presented become too wide to be useful. The USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which in near-real time alerts users to the likelihood of ranges of potential fatalities and economic impact, is aimed at

  3. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS TO DOMESTIC WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS IN SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Highland, Lynn M.

    1985-01-01

    A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

  4. ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

    2010-12-01

    Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and

  5. NGNP SITE 2 HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect

    Wayne Moe

    2011-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project initiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) by the U.S. Department of Energy pursuant to the 2005 Energy Policy Act, is based on research and development activities supported by the Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems Initiative. The principal objective of the NGNP Project is to support commercialization of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technology. The HTGR is a helium-cooled and graphite-moderated reactor that can operate at temperatures much higher than those of conventional light water reactor (LWR) technologies. Accordingly, it can be applied in many industrial applications as a substitute for burning fossil fuels, such as natural gas, to generate process heat in addition to producing electricity, which is the principal application of current LWRs. Nuclear energy in the form of LWRs has been used in the U.S. and internationally principally for the generation of electricity. However, because the HTGR operates at higher temperatures than LWRs, it can be used to displace the use of fossil fuels in many industrial applications. It also provides a carbon emission-free energy supply. For example, the energy needs for the recovery and refining of petroleum, for the petrochemical industry and for production of transportation fuels and feedstocks using coal conversion processes require process heat provided at temperatures approaching 800 C. This temperature range is readily achieved by the HTGR technology. This report summarizes a site assessment authorized by INL under the NGNP Project to determine hazards and potential challenges that site owners and HTGR designers need to be aware of when developing the HTGR design for co-location at industrial facilities, and to evaluate the site for suitability considering certain site characteristics. The objectives of the NGNP site hazard assessments are to do an initial screening of representative sites in order to identify potential challenges and restraints

  6. Hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. The area surrounding HWSF, the buildings and structures at HWSF, and the processes used at HWSF are described in this report. All nonradiological hazardous materials at the HWSF were identified (radiological hazardous materials are not stored at HWSF) and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Two of the identified hazardous materials exceeded their specified threshold quantity. This report discusses the potential release scenarios and consequences associated with an accidental release for each of the two identified hazardous materials, lead and mercury. Emergency considerations, such as emergency planning zones, emergency classes, protective actions, and emergency action levels, are also discussed based on the analysis of potential consequences. Evaluation of the potential consequences indicated that the highest emergency class for operational emergencies at the HWSF would be a Site Area Emergency.

  7. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  8. Tectonic Origin of the 1899 Yakutat Bay Earthquakes, Alaska, and Insights into Future Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulick, S. S.; LeVoir, M. A.; Haeussler, P. J.; Saustrup, S.

    2012-12-01

    On September 10th the largest of four earthquakes (Mw 8.2) that occurred in southeast Alaska on 1899 produced a 6 m tsunami and may have produced as much as 14 m of co-seismic uplift. This earthquake had an epicenter somewhere near Yakutat or Disenchantment Bays. These bays lie at the transition between the Fairweather Fault (the Pacific-North American strike-slip plate boundary), and the Yakutat Terrane-North American subduction zone. The deformation front of this subduction zone is thought to include the eastern fault in the Pamplona Zone offshore, the Malaspina Fault onshore, and the Esker Creek Fault near Yakutat Bay. The 10 September 1899 event could have taken place on a Yakutat-North American megathrust that daylights in Yakutat or Disenchantment Bay. Alternatively, the 10 September 1899 earthquake could have originated from the Fairweather-Boundary and Yakutat faults, transpressive components of the Fairweather strike-slip system present in the Yakutat Bay region, or from thrusting along the Yakutat and Otemaloi Faults on the southeast flank of Yakutat Bay. Characterizing fault slip during the Alaskan earthquakes of 1899 is vital to assessing both subduction zone structure and seismic hazards in the Yakutat Bay area. Each possible fault model has a different implication for modern hazards. These results will be used to update seismic hazard and fault maps and assess future risk to the Yakutat Bay and surrounding communities. During Aug. 6-17th, we anticipate acquiring high-resolution, marine multichannel seismic data aboard the USGS vessel Alaskan Gyre in Yakutat and Disenchantment Bays to search for evidence of recent faulting and directly test these competing theories for the 10 September 1899 event. This survey uses the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics' mini-GI gun, 24-channel seismic streamer, portable seismic compressor system, and associated gun control and data acquisition system to acquire the data. The profiles have a nominal common

  9. A fractal approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, D. L.

    1989-01-01

    The definition of a fractal distribution is that the number of objects (events) N with a characteristic size greater than r satisfies the relation N proportional to r exp - D is the fractal dimension. The applicability of a fractal relation implies that the underlying physical process is scale-invariant over the range of applicability of the relation. The empirical frequency-magnitude relation for earthquakes defining a b-value is a fractal relation with D = 2b. Accepting the fractal distribution, the level of regional seismicity can be related to the rate of regional strain and the magnitude of the largest characteristic earthquake. High levels of seismic activity indicate either a large regional strain or a low-magnitude maximum characteristic earthquake (or both). If the regional seismicity has a weak time dependence, the approach can be used to make probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

  10. Earthquake Hazard in the Heart of the Homeland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Evidence that earthquakes threaten the Mississippi, Ohio, and Wabash River valleys of the Central United States abounds. In fact, several of the largest historical earthquakes to strike the continental United States occurred in the winter of 1811-1812 along the New Madrid seismic zone, which stretches from just west of Memphis, Tenn., into southern Illinois. Several times in the past century, moderate earthquakes have been widely felt in the Wabash Valley seismic zone along the southern border of Illinois and Indiana. Throughout the region, between 150 and 200 earthquakes are recorded annually by a network of monitoring instruments, although most are too small to be felt by people. Geologic evidence for prehistoric earthquakes throughout the region has been mounting since the late 1970s. But how significant is the threat? How likely are large earthquakes and, more importantly, what is the chance that the shaking they cause will be damaging?

  11. The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

    2012-10-01

    Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

  12. Seismic hazard assessment in Central Asia using smoothed seismicity approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ullah, Shahid; Bindi, Dino; Zuccolo, Elisa; Mikhailova, Natalia; Danciu, Laurentiu; Parolai, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Central Asia has a long history of large to moderate frequent seismicity and is therefore considered one of the most seismically active regions with a high hazard level in the world. In the hazard map produced at global scale by GSHAP project in 1999( Giardini, 1999), Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations with return period of 475 years as high as 4.8 m/s2. Therefore Central Asia was selected as a target area for EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia), a regional project of GEM (Global Earthquake Model) for this area. In the framework of EMCA, a new generation of seismic hazard maps are foreseen in terms of macro-seismic intensity, in turn to be used to obtain seismic risk maps for the region. Therefore Intensity Prediction Equation (IPE) had been developed for the region based on the distribution of intensity data for different earthquakes occurred in Central Asia since the end of 19th century (Bindi et al. 2011). The same observed intensity distribution had been used to assess the seismic hazard following the site approach (Bindi et al. 2012). In this study, we present the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Central Asia in terms of MSK-64 based on two kernel estimation methods. We consider the smoothed seismicity approaches of Frankel (1995), modified for considering the adaptive kernel proposed by Stock and Smith (2002), and of Woo (1996), modified for considering a grid of sites and estimating a separate bandwidth for each site. The activity rate maps are shown from Frankel approach showing the effects of fixed and adaptive kernel. The hazard is estimated for rock site condition based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Maximum intensity of about 9 is observed in the Hindukush region.

  13. Role of WEGENER (World Earthquake GEodesy Network for Environmental Hazard Research) in monitoring natural hazards (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozener, H.; Zerbini, S.; Bastos, M. L.; Becker, M. H.; Meghraoui, M.; Reilinger, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    anthropogenic climate change (sea level, ice degradation). In addition, expanded applications of space geodesy to atmospheric studies will remain a major focus with emphasis on ionospheric and tropospheric monitoring to support forecasting extreme events. Towards these ends, we will encourage and foster interdisciplinary, integrated initiatives to develop a range of case studies for these critical problems. Geological studies are needed to extend geodetic deformation studies to geologic time scales, and new modeling approaches will facilitate full exploitation of expanding geodetic databases. In light of this new focus, the WEGENER acronym now represents, 'World Earthquake GEodesy Network for Environmental Hazard Research.

  14. Multiple-site estimations in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Vladimir; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik

    2016-04-01

    We analyze specific features of multiple-site probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), i.e. annual rate of ground motion level exceedance in at least one site of several sites of interest located within in an area or along a linear extended object. The relation between the multiple-scale hazard estimations and strong ground-motion records obtained during the 2008 Wenchuan (China) Mw 7.9 earthquake is discussed. The ground-motion records may be considered as an example of ground motion exceeding the design level estimated using the classical point-wise PSHA. We showed that the multiple-site hazard (MSH) assessment, when being performed for standard return period 475 years, provide reasonable estimations of the ground motions that may occur during the earthquake, parameters of which are close to maximum possible events accepted in PSHA for the region. Thus the MSH may be useful in estimation of maximum considered earthquake ground motion for the considered territory taking into account its extent.

  15. Challenges in Assessing Seismic Hazard in Intraplate Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hintersberger, E.; Kuebler, S.; Landgraf, A.; Stein, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    Intraplate regions are often characterized by scattered, clustered and migrating seismicity and the occurrence of low-strain areas next to high-strain ones. Increasing evidence for large paleoearthquakes in such regions together with population growth and development of critical facilities, call for better assessments of earthquake hazards. Existing seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe is based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past 1000 years, as well some active fault data. These observations face important limitations due to the quantity and quality of the available data bases. Even considering the long record of historical events in some populated areas of Europe, this time-span of thousand years likely fails to capture some faults' typical large-event recurrence intervals that are in the order of tens of thousands of years. Paleoseismology helps lengthen the observation window, but only produces point measurements, and preferentially in regions suspected to be seismically active. As a result, the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are quite uncertain, likely to be underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues in particular arise in the heavily populated Rhine Graben and Vienna Basin areas, and in considering the hazard to critical facilities like nuclear power plants posed by low-probability events.

  16. The Diversity of Large Earthquakes and Its Implications for Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanamori, Hiroo

    2014-05-01

    With the advent of broadband seismology and GPS, significant diversity in the source radiation spectra of large earthquakes has been clearly demonstrated. This diversity requires different approaches to mitigate hazards. In certain tectonic environments, seismologists can forecast the future occurrence of large earthquakes within a solid scientific framework using the results from seismology and GPS. Such forecasts are critically important for long-term hazard mitigation practices, but because stochastic fracture processes are complex, the forecasts are inevitably subject to large uncertainty, and unexpected events will continue to surprise seismologists. Recent developments in real-time seismology will help seismologists to cope with and prepare for tsunamis and earthquakes. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity with modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices.

  17. Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Very High Resolution Satelliteimagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiroiu, L.; André, G.; Bahoken, F.; Guillande, R.

    Various studies using satellite imagery were applied in the last years in order to assess natural hazard damages, most of them analyzing the case of floods, hurricanes or landslides. For the case of earthquakes, the medium or small spatial resolution data available in the recent past did not allow a reliable identification of damages, due to the size of the elements (e.g. buildings or other structures), too small compared with the pixel size. The recent progresses of remote sensing in terms of spatial resolution and data processing makes possible a reliable damage detection to the elements at risk. Remote sensing techniques applied to IKONOS (1 meter resolution) and IRS (5 meters resolution) imagery were used in order to evaluate seismic vulnerability and post earthquake damages. A fast estimation of losses was performed using a multidisciplinary approach based on earthquake engineering and geospatial analysis. The results, integrated into a GIS database, could be transferred via satellite networks to the rescue teams deployed on the affected zone, in order to better coordinate the emergency operations. The methodology was applied to the city of Bhuj and Anjar after the 2001 Gujarat (India) Earthquake.

  18. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment for Sultanate of Oman

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Hussain, I. W.; Deif, A.; El-Hady, S.; Toksoz, M. N.; Al-Jabri, K.; Al-Hashmi, S.; Al-Toubi, K. I.; Al-Shijbi, Y.; Al-Saifi, M.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic hazard assessment for Oman is conducted utilizing probabilistic approach. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed within a logic tree framework. An earthquake catalogue for Oman was compiled and declustered to include only independent earthquakes. The declustered catalogue was used to define seismotectonic source model with 26 source zones that characterize earthquakes in the tectonic environments in and around Oman. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones are determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the seismogenic zones of Makran subduction zone which were modeled using the characteristic distribution. The maximum earthquakes on known faults were determined geologically and the remaining zones were determined statistically from the compiled catalogue. Horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships that were developed from seismic data obtained from the shallow active environment, stable craton environment, and from subduction earthquakes. In this analysis, we have used alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation models and weighted them to account for the epistemic uncertainty. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of 5% damped seismic hazard maps at rock sites for 72, 475, and 2475 year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0.0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 sec. Mean and 84th percentile acceleration contour maps were represented. The results also were displayed as uniform hazard spectra for rock sites in the cities of Khasab, Diba, Sohar, Muscat, Nizwa, Sur, and Salalah in Oman and the cities of Abu Dhabi and Dubai in UAE. The PGA across Oman ranges from 20 cm/sec2 in the Mid-West and 115 cm/sec2 at the northern part for 475 years return period and between 40 cm/sec2 and 180 cm/sec2 for 2475 years

  19. Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software (OPAL)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, J. E.

    2011-07-01

    This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.

  20. Damage-consistent hazard assessment - the revival of intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klügel, Jens-Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Proposed key-note speech (Introduction of session). Current civil engineering standards for residential buildings in many countries are based on (frequently probabilistic) seismic hazard assessments using ground motion parameters like peak ground accelerations or pseudo displacements as hazard parameters. This approach has its roots in the still wide spread force-based design of structures using simplified methods like linear response spectra in combination with equivalent static forces procedures for the design of structures. In the engineering practice this has led to practical problems because it's not economic to design structures against the maximum forces of earthquakes. Furthermore, a completely linear-elastic response of structures is seldom required. Different types of reduction factors (performance-dependent response factors) considering for example overstrength, structural redundancy and structural ductility have been developed in different countries for compensating the use of simplified and conservative design methods. This has the practical consequence that the methods used in engineering as well as the output results of hazard assessment studies are poorly related to the physics of damaging. Reliable predictions for the response of structures under earthquake loading using such simplified design methods are not feasible. In dependence of the type of structures damage may be controlled by hazard parameters that are different from ground motion accelerations. Furthermore, a realistic risk assessment has to be based on reliable predictions of damage. This is crucial for effective decision-making. This opens the space for a return to the use of intensities as the key output parameter of seismic hazard assessment. Site intensities (e.g. EMS-98) are very well correlated to the damage of structures. They can easily be converted into the required set of engineering parameters or even directly into earthquake time-histories suitable for structural analysis

  1. Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic)

    SciTech Connect

    Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.; Sullivan, Robin S.

    2010-09-24

    The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. The review includes all natural phenomena hazards with the exception of seismic/earthquake hazards, which are being addressed under a separate effort. It was determined that existing non-seismic NPH assessments are consistent with current design methodology and site specific data.

  2. Satellite remote sensing of earthquake, volcano, flood, landslide and coastal inundation hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tralli, David M.; Blom, Ronald G.; Zlotnicki, Victor; Donnellan, Andrea; Evans, Diane L.

    Satellite remote sensing is providing a systematic, synoptic framework for advancing scientific knowledge of the Earth as a complex system of geophysical phenomena that, directly and through interacting processes, often lead to natural hazards. Improved and integrated measurements along with numerical modeling are enabling a greater understanding of where and when a particular hazard event is most likely to occur and result in significant socioeconomic impact. Geospatial information products derived from this research increasingly are addressing the operational requirements of decision support systems used by policy makers, emergency managers and responders from international and federal to regional, state and local jurisdictions. This forms the basis for comprehensive risk assessments and better-informed mitigation planning, disaster assessment and response prioritization. Space-based geodetic measurements of the solid Earth with the Global Positioning System, for example, combined with ground-based seismological measurements, are yielding the principal data for modeling lithospheric processes and for accurately estimating the distribution of potentially damaging strong ground motions which is critical for earthquake engineering applications. Moreover, integrated with interferometric synthetic aperture radar, these measurements provide spatially continuous observations of deformation with sub-centimeter accuracy. Seismic and in situ monitoring, geodetic measurements, high-resolution digital elevation models (e.g. from InSAR, Lidar and digital photogrammetry) and imaging spectroscopy (e.g. using ASTER, MODIS and Hyperion) are contributing significantly to volcanic hazard risk assessment, with the potential to aid land use planning in developing countries where the impact of volcanic hazards to populations and lifelines is continually increasing. Remotely sensed data play an integral role in reconstructing the recent history of the land surface and in predicting

  3. Assessing volcanic hazards with Vhub

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palma, J. L.; Charbonnier, S.; Courtland, L.; Valentine, G.; Connor, C.; Connor, L.

    2012-04-01

    Vhub (online at vhub.org) is a virtual organization and community cyberinfrastructure designed for collaboration in volcanology research, education, and outreach. One of the core objectives of this project is to accelerate the transfer of research tools to organizations and stakeholders charged with volcano hazard and risk mitigation (such as volcano observatories). Vhub offers a clearinghouse for computational models of volcanic processes and data analysis, documentation of those models, and capabilities for online collaborative groups focused on issues such as code development, configuration management, benchmarking, and validation. Vhub supports computer simulations and numerical modeling at two levels: (1) some models can be executed online via Vhub, without needing to download code and compile on the user's local machine; (2) other models are not available for online execution but for offline use in the user's computer. VHub also has wikis, blogs and group functions around specific topics to encourage collaboration, communication and discussion. Some of the simulation tools currently available to Vhub users are: Energy Cone (rapid delineation of the impact zone by pyroclastic density currents), Tephra2 (tephra dispersion forecast tool), Bent (atmospheric plume analysis), Hazmap (simulate sedimentation of volcanic particles) and TITAN2D (mass flow simulation tool). The list of online simulations available on Vhub is expected to expand considerably as the volcanological community becomes more involved in the project. This presentation focuses on the implementation of online simulation tools, and other Vhub's features, for assessing volcanic hazards following approaches similar to those reported in the literature. Attention is drawn to the minimum computational resources needed by the user to carry out such analyses, and to the tools and media provided to facilitate the effective use of Vhub's infrastructure for hazard and risk assessment. Currently the project

  4. 10 CFR 850.21 - Hazard assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Hazard assessment. 850.21 Section 850.21 Energy DEPARTMENT... assessment. (a) If the baseline inventory establishes the presence of beryllium, the responsible employer must conduct a beryllium hazard assessment that includes an analysis of existing conditions,...

  5. 10 CFR 850.21 - Hazard assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Hazard assessment. 850.21 Section 850.21 Energy DEPARTMENT... assessment. (a) If the baseline inventory establishes the presence of beryllium, the responsible employer must conduct a beryllium hazard assessment that includes an analysis of existing conditions,...

  6. Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faenza, Licia; Hainzl, Sebastian; Scherbaum, Frank; Beauval, Céline

    2007-11-01

    The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5-10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.

  7. Hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex

    SciTech Connect

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-02-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex (LC) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and the DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes the hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. The area surrounding the LC, the buildings and structures at the LC, and the processes that are used at the LC are described in this report. All hazardous materials, both radiological and nonradiological, at the LC were identified and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Asbestos at the Asbestos Pit was the only hazardous material that exceeded its specified threshold quantity. However, the type of asbestos received and the packaging practices used are believed to limit the potential for an airborne release of asbestos fibers. Therefore, in accordance with DOE Order 5500.3A guidance, no further hazardous material characterization or analysis was required for this hazards assessment.

  8. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

    2009-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the

  9. Natural Hazard Assessment and Communication in the Central United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Lynch, M. J.

    2009-12-01

    In the central United States, natural hazards, such as floods, tornados, ice storms, droughts, and earthquakes, result in significant damages and losses of life every year. For example, the February 5-6, 2008 tornado touched down in nine states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee), killing 57, injuring 350, and causing more than 1.0 billion in damages. The January 2009 ice storm struck Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia, killing 36 and causing more than 1.0 billion in damages. It is a great challenge for the society to develop an effective policy for mitigating these natural hazards in the central United States. However, the development of an effective policy starts with a good assessment of the natural hazards. Scientists play a key role in assessing the natural hazards. Therefore, scientists play an important role in the development of an effective policy for the natural hazard mitigation. It is critical for scientists to clearly define, quantify, and communicate the hazard assessments, including the associated uncertainties which are a key factor in policy decision making, to end-users. Otherwise, end-users will have difficulty understanding and using the information provided. For example, ground motion hazard maps with 2, 5, and 10 percent probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years in the central United States have been produced for seismic hazard mitigation purpose. End-users have difficulty understanding and using the maps, however, which has led to either indecision or ineffective policy for seismic hazard mitigation in many communities in the central United States.

  10. The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program Website: Summary of Recent and Ongoing Developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, L. A.; Zirbes, M.; Robert, S.; Wald, D.; Presgrace, B.; Earle, P.; Schwarz, S.; Haefner, S.; Haller, K.; Rhea, S.

    2003-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) website (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/) focuses on 1) earthquake reporting for informed decisions after an earthquake, 2) hazards information for informed decisions and planning before an earthquake, and 3) the basics of earthquake science to help the users of the information understand what is presented. The majority of website visitors are looking for information about current earthquakes in the U.S. and around the world, and the second most visited portion of the website are the education-related pages. People are eager for information, and they are most interested in "what's in my backyard?" Recent and future web developments are aimed at answering this question, making the information more relevant to users, and enabling users to more quickly and easily find the information they are looking for. Recent and/or current web developments include the new enhanced Recent Global Earthquakes and U.S. Earthquakes webpages, the Earthquake in the News system, the Rapid Accurate Tectonic Summaries (RATS), online Significant Earthquake Summary Posters (ESP's), and the U.S. Quaternary Fault & Fold Database, the details of which are covered individually in greater detail in this or other sessions. Future planned developments include a consistent look across all EHP webpages, an integrated one-stop-shopping earthquake notification (EQMail) subscription webpage, new navigation tabs, and a backend database allowing the user to search for earthquake information across all the various EHP websites (on different webservers) based on a topic or region. Another goal is to eventually allow a user to input their address (Zip Code?) and in return receive all the relevant EHP information (and links to more detailed information) such as closest fault, the last significant nearby earthquake, a local seismicity map, and a local hazard map, for example. This would essentially be a dynamic report based on the entered location