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Sample records for atlantic climate region

  1. Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

  2. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  3. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

  5. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

  6. VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, USA, TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubl...

  7. Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2012-12-01

    The Brazilian Atlantic Forest was a large and important forest due to its high biodiversity, endemism, range in climate, and complex geography. The original Atlantic Forest was estimated to cover 150 million hectares, spanning large latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation gradients. This unique environment helped contribute to a diverse assemblage of plants, mammals, birds, and reptiles. Unfortunately, due to land conversion into agriculture, pasture, urban areas, and increased forest fragmentation, only ~8-10% of the original Atlantic Forest remains. Tropical deforestation in the Americas can have considerable effects on local to global climates, and surrounding vegetation growth and survival. This study uses a fully coupled, global climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM v.1.0.1) to simulate the full removal of the historical Atlantic Forest, and evaluate the regional climatic and vegetation responses due to deforestation. We used the fully coupled atmosphere and land surface components in CESM, and a partially interacting ocean component. The vegetated grid cell portion of the land surface component, the Community Landscape Model (CLM), is divided into 4 of 16 plant functional types (PFTs) with vertical layers of canopy, leaf area index, soil physical properties, and interacting hydrological features all tracking energy, water, and carbon state and flux variables, making CLM highly capable in predicting the complex nature and outcomes of large-scale deforestation. The Atlantic Forest removal (i.e. deforestation) was conducted my converting all woody stem PFTs to grasses in CLM, creating a land-use change from forest to pasture. By comparing the simulated historical Atlantic Forest (pre human alteration) to a deforested Atlantic Forest (close to current conditions) in CLM and CESM we found that live stem carbon, NPP (gC m-2 yr-1), and other vegetation dynamics inside and outside the Atlantic Forest region were largely altered. In addition to vegetation

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential managemen...

  9. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  10. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  11. Phase Variability of the Recent Climate in the North Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri; Sidorova, Alexandra

    2014-05-01

    The atmospheric pressure and near-surface temperature differences between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low for the period of 1900-2012 within the spatial-temporal average-out (20º latitude, 20º longitude and 12 years) were considered. The secular term of phase states of the system under consideration was found to divide into three non-intersecting subsets. Each of that was put in consequence with one of three climatic scenarios related to the periods of 1905-1935 (relatively warm phase), 1940-1970 (colder phase) and 1980-2000 (warmer phase). A life time of such a scenario lasted about 20-35 years, and the transition from one scenario to another covered 4-6 years, i.e. it run comparatively quickly. The revealed non-overlapping sub-aggregates of the thermodynamic indices related to each particular climate scenario gave an idea to follow the circulation peculiarities and the interrelated temperature differences within the limits of the Northern Atlantic ocean-atmosphere regional system. The results of this analysis bear evidence that the most probable intermittent strengthening and weakening of Hadley and Ferrell circulations occurred there in coincided phase. The analogous character of the climate system behavior was also detected in some other regional atmospheric activity centers that can be considered as a witness on the global nature of the detected phase type of modern climate inter-decadal variability. Hence, we have the grounds to suppose that mentioned above the short-period inter-decadal excitations of the modern climate have a global nature and appears everywhere. Finally, the attention was paid to the fact that at the early XXI century the thermodynamic state of the Northern Atlantic regional climate system has shown a tendency to face towards the situation, similar to the cooler scenario of the 1940-1970. We used the heat content of upper 700m Atlantic Ocean layer data from NODC to calculate its anomalies for the periods of 1955-1970, 1980-2000 and

  12. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #34: PUBLICATION OF FACT SHEET BY EPA REGION 3, "HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION?"

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Global Change Research Program is pleased to announce the publication of a fact sheet entitled, "How Will Climate Change Affect the Mid-Atlantic Region?." This information sheet was prepared and published by EPA's Region 3 office. It summarizes key findings from the Mid-Atl...

  13. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone

  14. Weather Regimes and cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic European region: present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Tiago; Rocha, Alfredo; Melo-Gonçalves, Paulo; Santos, João A.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Damages associated with extratropical storms are amongst the most important natural hazards on Western Europe. Thus, in this work we analyse: (i) the relationships between several cyclone characteristics: intensity, depth, radius, cyclogenesis, cyclolysis, and total number of cyclones (identified by applying the Murray and Simmonds method to 6-hourly 850 hPa geopotential height); (ii) their links to four large-scale weather regimes (WRs) over a North Atlantic-European sector (NAE, 90W-30E, 20N-80N); and (iii) the projected changes for future climates under emission scenarios. Four WRs are identified by a 4-means clustering of the daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields (Blocking, Zonal or NAO+, Atlantic Ridge, and Greenland Anticyclonic). Furthermore, daily 500 hPa geopotential height from four CMIP3 simulations are clustered using the ERA centroids, for both the recent-past climate (1961-1990) and two future climates: 2021-2050 and 2069-2098. The impact of anthropogenic forcing on the cyclonic activity over the NAE sector is thereby quantified for each of the four weather regimes. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project CLIPE (PTDC/AAC-CLI/111733/2009).

  15. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  16. Abrupt climate variability in the North Atlantic region: Did the icebergs do it?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, S.; Chen, J.; Gong, X.; Jonkers, L.; Knorr, G.; Thornalley, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    We present high resolution records of temperature and ice rafted debris over the last ~440Kyr from a sediment core retrieved from the NE Atlantic. Our records reveal that episodes of ice rafting typically occurred after abrupt cooling at the site. Because the site is sensitive to the earliest phases of ice rafting as recorded by other sites across the wider Atlantic, this suggests that icebergs were not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events. Moreover we find a different relationship between cooling and the arrival of rafted ice at a site ~750km to the SE of ours. We suggest that asynchronous cooling between these locations can be explained by the more gradual southward migration of the North Atlantic polar front. We describe a mechanism that can explain the occurrence of abrupt stadial events over Greenland as a non-linear response as regional cooling continues beyond the threshold necessary for sustaining ocean circulation in its 'warm' mode with active convection north of Iceland. Thus while the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and prolonging stadial conditions, it is probably not the trigger for northern stadial events.

  17. Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, Jorge; Menendez, Melisa; Mendez, Fernando J.; Losada, Inigo J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating climate projections affected by global warming is the choice of the global climate model (GCM). The aim of this study is to evaluate the skill of GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region. It is well known that the seasonal and interannual variability of surface inland variables (e.g. precipitation and snow) and ocean variables (e.g. wave height and storm surge) are linked to the atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, an automatic synoptic classification, based on weather types, has been used to assess whether GCMs are able to reproduce spatial patterns and climate variability. Three important factors have been analyzed: the skill of GCMs to reproduce the synoptic situations, the skill of GCMs to reproduce the historical inter-annual variability and the consistency of GCMs experiments during twenty-first century projections. The results of this analysis indicate that the most skilled GCMs in the study region are UKMO-HadGEM2, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) for CMIP3 scenarios and ACCESS1.0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and CMCC-CM for CMIP5 scenarios. These models are therefore recommended for the estimation of future regional multi-model projections of surface variables driven by the atmospheric circulation in the north-east Atlantic Ocean region.

  18. Holocene sea surface temperatures in the East African Coastal Current region and their relationship with North Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhnert, Henning; Kuhlmann, Holger; Mohtadi, Mahyar; Pätzold, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The East African Coastal Current (EACC) is one of the western boundary currents of the Indian Ocean and represents the only pathway for southern water masses to enter the Arabian Sea. Today, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the western boundary currents region covary with those in large parts of the central tropical Indian Ocean. The latter play an important role in global climate by influencing the mean state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and associated Atlantic SST anomalies (Hoerling et al., 2001). In the EACC region paleoclimate data are sparse and its Holocene temperature history is unexplored. We present data from a 5 m long sediment core retrieved off northern Tanzania where the EACC flows northward year-round. Proximity to the Pangani River mouth provides a steady sediment supply. We have reconstructed SST from Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotope ratios (^18O) of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera species Globigerinoides ruber (sensu stricto). Our record spans the time period from 9700 to 1400 years BP at an average temporal resolution of 40 years. The Holocene is characterized by a sequence of intervals representing cool, warm, cool, and intermediate SST, with boundaries at 7.8, 5.6, and 4.4 ka BP. SST anomalies relative to the series mean range from -0.6 to +0.75 ° C. This pattern strikingly resembles a Northwest Atlantic foraminiferal ^18O record (Cléroux et al., 2012), with warm Indian SST corresponding to low Atlantic foraminiferal ^18O (indicating low sea surface density). This matches the modern situation on the interdecadal time-scale, where a warm Indian Ocean leads to a shift of the NAO towards a positive mean state, which is accompanied by SST warming over much of the low- and mid-latitude western Atlantic and a displacement of the Gulf Stream path. We hypothesize that this mechanism also operates on millennial time-scales to explain the obvious similarities in the SST patterns observed in the Northwest Atlantic and western

  19. An evaluation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system for regional climate studies: extreme events in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mooney, Priscilla A.; Mulligan, Frank J.

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the ability of a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean modelling system to simulate two extreme events in the North Atlantic. In this study we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST; Warner et al.) modelling system with only the atmosphere and ocean models activated. COAWST couples the atmosphere model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF) to the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System; ROMS) with the Model Coupling Toolkit. Results from the coupled system are compared with atmosphere only simulations of North Atlantic storms to evaluate the performance of the coupled modelling system. Two extreme events (Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Irene) were chosen to assess the level of improvement (or otherwise) arising from coupling WRF with ROMS. These two hurricanes involve different dynamics and present different challenges to the modeling system. This provides a robust assessment of the advantages or disadvantages of coupling WRF with ROMS for regional climate modelling studies of extreme events in the North Atlantic. We examine the ability of the coupled modelling system to simulate these two extreme events by comparing modelled storm tracks, storm intensities, wind speeds and sea surface temperatures with observations in all cases. The effect of domain size, and two different planetary boundary layers used in WRF are also reported.

  20. Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, Ramalingam

    2011-10-30

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

  1. Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

    2012-10-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

  2. The Atlantic Climate Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Molinari, R.L. ); Battisti, D. ); Bryan, K. ); Walsh, J. )

    1994-07-01

    The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Climatic Trends in the Triassic to Early Jurassic Lacustrine Succession of East Greenland: Implications for Correlation in the North Atlantic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Steven

    2013-04-01

    The Triassic continental successions of the North Atlantic region are poorly age constrained and therefore regional correlation is problematic. Climatic trends offer potential as the basis of regional correlation. The Triassic of East Greenland lies in the northern continuation of the northern North Sea Rift and, following reconstruction, aligns with the Viking Graben. This position, between the northern North Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Barents Shelf successions, means it is key in constructing regional correlations and understanding both tectonic and climatic evolution throughout the Triassic of the North Atlantic region. Detailed sedimentological study of exceptional exposures through the largely lacustrine Mid-Late Triassic succession of East Greenland has provided the basis for a palaeoclimatic reconstruction. This has highlighted the occurrence of significant periods of increased aridity during the Late Ladinian and the Late Carnian which bracket the more humid conditions of the Early Carnian (the 'Carnian Pluvial Event'). Following the Late Carnian arid phase a gradual cooling through the Late Triassic and Early Jurassic is recorded. Comparisons and correlations are made with Triassic successions throughout the North Atlantic. Understanding climatic trends and the response of sedimentary systems to these has important implications for the construction of facies models and therefore the prediction of both reservoir and seal distribution in the prospective North Atlantic petroleum provinces.

  4. Climatic trends in the North Atlantic region during the last 2,000 years in an orbitally forced AOGCM simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2013-12-01

    The global coverage of temporal highly resolved proxy-based climate reconstructions is extending to cover the last 2,000 years. It is thus important to fully understand the effect of the orbital forcing at these time scales, as the imprint of the orbital forcing becomes clearer when analyzing climate on time scales longer than the last 1,000 years. The slow-varying orbital parameters affect the seasonal distribution of the incoming solar radiation. Although changes are not as pronounced compared to the mid-Holocene, still distinct differences exist, with lower insolation between February and May and higher insolation between July and October over the mid- and high northern latitudes 2,000 years ago compared to present. Here, we analyze a simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G forced only with changes in orbital variations for the last 2,000 years. Other factors such as solar activity and greenhouse gas changes are set to constant pre-industrial values. The modeled near-surface temperature trends reflect the expected orbitally induced insolation trends over the northern hemispheric continents and the Arctic, with increased temperatures during May and reduced temperatures during October. Over the North Atlantic Ocean, however SST trends are not directly consistent to changes in orbital forcing throughout the year, mostly showing little or slight uniform cooling trends. The strength of the maximum overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean also shows no clear-cut trends that can be linked to changes in external forcings. Other variables related to oceanic convection and surface heat fluxes indicate, however, spatially heterogeneous trend patterns. For example, regions south of Greenland and off Labrador show increases in convection that compensate the decreases over the Labrador and the Norwegian Sea. This pattern varies in intensity and spatial extent between the different winter half year months. Changes in oceanic convection and surface heat

  5. North Atlantic, ITCZ, and Monsoonal Climate Links

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haug, G. H.; Deplazes, G.; Peterson, L. C.; Brauer, A.; Mingram, J.; Dulski, P.; Sigman, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Major element chemistry and color data from sediment cores in the anoxic Cariaco Basin off Venezuela record with (sub)annual resolution large and abrupt shifts in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last 80 ka. These data suggest a direct connection between the position of the ITCZ over northern South America, the strength of trade winds, and the temperature gradient to the high northern latitudes, ENSO, and monsoonal climate in Asia. The mechanisms behind these decadal-scale ITCZ-monsoon swings can be further explored at major climate transitions such as the onset of Younger Dryas cooling at ~12.7 ka, one of the most abrupt climate changes observed in ice core, lake and marine records in the North Atlantic realm and much of the Northern Hemisphere. Annually laminated sediments from ideally record the dynamics of abrupt climate changes since seasonal deposition immediately responds to climate and varve counts accurately estimate the time of change. We compare sub-annual geochemical data from a lake in Western Germany, which provides one of the best-dated records currently available for this climate transition, with the new the Cariaco Basin record and a new and higher resolution record from Lake Huguang Maar in China, and the Greenland ice core record. The Lake Meerfelder Maar record indicates an abrupt increase in storminess, occurring from one year to the next at 12,678 ka BP, coincident with other observed climate changes in the region. We interpret this shift of the wintertime winds to signify an abrupt change in the North Atlantic westerlies to a stronger and more zonal jet. The observed wind shift provides the atmospheric mechanism for the strong temporal link between North Atlantic overturning and European climate during the last deglaciation, tightly coupled to ITCZ migrations observed in the Cariaco Basin sediments, and a stronger east Asian Monsoon winter monsoon as seen in lake Huguang Maar, when cave stalagmite oxygen isotope data

  6. Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Jin, Jiming

    2015-07-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the

  7. Contribution of the North Atlantic Subtropical High to Regional Climate Model (RCM) Skill in Simulating Southeastern United States Summer Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, L.; Li, W.; Jin, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating Southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show large biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge. In WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7-deg northwestward compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated precipitation according to the "NASH western ridge - Southeast summer precipitation" relationship. Experiments utilizing the Four Dimensional Data Assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. The changes in tropical convecton induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the precipitation biases over the SE US

  8. Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes

  9. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #17: PUBLICATION OF MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report, "Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - Mid-Atlantic Overview", summarizes the findings of the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment was led by a team from The Pennsylvani...

  10. Correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity biases in the Kiel Climate Model: influences on ocean circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2016-01-01

    A long-standing problem in climate models is the large sea surface salinity (SSS) biases in the North Atlantic. In this study, we describe the influences of correcting these SSS biases on the circulation of the North Atlantic as well as on North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal to multidecadal variability. We performed integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with and without applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  11. Hydrographic observations in the western tropical and subtropical north atlantic ocean: Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) and western tropical atlantic experiment (WESTRAX) during 1990. Data report

    SciTech Connect

    Johns, E.; Wilburn, A.M.

    1993-03-01

    Data collected during the 1990 Atlantic Climate Change Program and the Western Tropical Atlantic Experiment were presented. The goals of the programs were to increase the understanding of the roles of the regional circulation and ocean circulation in global climate. Salinity, ocean temperature as a function of depth, and other hydrographic data were collected from shipborne platforms.

  12. Hydrographic observations in the western tropical and subtropical north atlantic ocean: Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) and western tropical atlantic experiment (WESTRAX) during 1991. Data report

    SciTech Connect

    Johns, E.; Wilburn, A.M.

    1993-03-01

    Data collected during the 1991 Atlantic Climate Change Program and the Western Tropical Atlantic Experiment were presented. The goals of the programs were to increase the understanding of the roles of regional circulation and ocean circulation in global climate. Salinity, ocean temperature as a function depth and other hydrographic data were collected from shipborne platforms.

  13. Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Anderson, Whit G.; Winton, Michael; Alexander, Michael A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (˜100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (˜10 km ocean, ˜50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

  14. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into “coastal Niño/Niña” in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible.

  15. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña

    PubMed Central

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into “coastal Niño/Niña” in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible. PMID:26739121

  16. A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña.

    PubMed

    Oettli, Pascal; Morioka, Yushi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2016-01-01

    The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into "coastal Niño/Niña" in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible. PMID:26739121

  17. Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets, ERA Interim reanalysis, and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skok, Gregor; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Honzak, Luka; Žabkar, Rahela; Rakovec, Jože; Ceglar, Andrej

    2016-01-01

    The study presents a precipitation intercomparison based on two satellite-derived datasets (TRMM 3B42, CMORPH), four raingauge-based datasets (GPCC, E-OBS, Willmott & Matsuura, CRU), ERA Interim reanalysis (ERAInt), and a single climate simulation using the WRF model. The comparison was performed for a domain encompassing parts of Europe and the North Atlantic over the 11-year period of 2000-2010. The four raingauge-based datasets are similar to the TRMM dataset with biases over Europe ranging from -7 % to +4 %. The spread among the raingauge-based datasets is relatively small over most of Europe, although areas with greater uncertainty (more than 30 %) exist, especially near the Alps and other mountainous regions. There are distinct differences between the datasets over the European land area and the Atlantic Ocean in comparison to the TRMM dataset. ERAInt has a small dry bias over the land; the WRF simulation has a large wet bias (+30 %), whereas CMORPH is characterized by a large and spatially consistent dry bias (-21 %). Over the ocean, both ERAInt and CMORPH have a small wet bias (+8 %) while the wet bias in WRF is significantly larger (+47 %). ERAInt has the highest frequency of low-intensity precipitation while the frequency of high-intensity precipitation is the lowest due to its lower native resolution. Both satellite-derived datasets have more low-intensity precipitation over the ocean than over the land, while the frequency of higher-intensity precipitation is similar or larger over the land. This result is likely related to orography, which triggers more intense convective precipitation, while the Atlantic Ocean is characterized by more homogenous large-scale precipitation systems which are associated with larger areas of lower intensity precipitation. However, this is not observed in ERAInt and WRF, indicating the insufficient representation of convective processes in the models. Finally, the Fraction Skill Score confirmed that both models perform

  18. Impacts of Sea Surface Salinity Bias Correction on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Climate Variability in the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    We investigated impacts of correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) biases on the ocean circulation of the North Atlantic and on North Atlantic sector mean climate and climate variability in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Bias reduction was achieved by applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  19. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan T; Hodson, Daniel L R

    2005-07-01

    Recent extreme events such as the devastating 2003 European summer heat wave raise important questions about the possible causes of any underlying trends, or low-frequency variations, in regional climates. Here, we present new evidence that basin-scale changes in the Atlantic Ocean, probably related to the thermohaline circulation, have been an important driver of multidecadal variations in the summertime climate of both North America and western Europe. Our findings advance understanding of past climate changes and also have implications for decadal climate predictions. PMID:15994552

  20. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: OVERVIEW REPORT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This peer-reviewed report summarizes the findings of the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment was led by a team from The Pennsylvania State University. The assessment was sponsored by and conducted in partnership with the U.S. Environmental...

  1. Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.

    2007-11-01

    Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.

  2. MIDDLE TO UPPER ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (PHASE II)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this assessment activity is to enhance the ability of decision-makers and other stakeholders in the Middle to Upper Atlantic Region who are vulnerable to land use change and climate change to access and use the best scientific information when making decisions th...

  3. Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Mochizuki, T.; Timmermann, A.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.

    2016-07-01

    The tropical Pacific cooling from the early 1990s to 2013 has contributed to the slowdown of globally averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The origin of this regional cooling trend still remains elusive. Here we demonstrate that the remote impact of Atlantic SST anomalies, as well as local atmosphere-ocean interactions, contributed to the eastern Pacific cooling during this period. By assimilating observed three-dimensional Atlantic temperature and salinity anomalies into a coupled general circulation model, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the observed Pacific decadal trends of SST and sea level pressure (SLP), albeit with reduced amplitude. Although a major part of the Pacific SLP trend can be explained by equatorial Pacific SST forcing only, the origin of this low-frequency variability can be traced back further to the remote impacts of equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic SST trends. Atlantic SST impacts on the atmospheric circulation can also be detected for the Northeastern Pacific, thus providing a linkage between Atlantic climate and Western North American drought conditions.

  4. Tephra constraints on Rapid Climate Events (TRACE): precise correlation of marine and ice-core records during the last glacial period in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, S. M.; Griggs, A. J.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Purcell, C. S.; Hall, I. R.; Scourse, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Little has challenged our understanding of climate change more so than the abruptness with which large-scale shifts in temperature occurred during the last glacial period. Atmospheric temperature jumps occurring within decades over Greenland were closely matched by rapid changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and major re-organisation of the deep ocean circulation. Although these climatic instabilities are well-documented in various proxy records, the causal mechanisms of such short-lived oscillations remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Synchronisation of palaeoclimate records on a common timescale is inherently problematic, and unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is currently beyond our reach. TRACE - a 5 year project funded by the European Research Council - exploits the use of microscopic traces of tephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. Here we draw upon examples of how these time-lines can be used to constrain the lead/lag responses between the atmospheric and oceanic systems during the last glacial period. High-resolution proxy data from North Atlantic marine cores MD04-2829CQ from the Rosemary Bank and MD04 2820CQ from the Goban Spur are integrated with the Greenland ice-cores according to the position of common tephra isochrons. These direct tie-lines allow us to focus in detail on the relative timing of rapid warming transitions between Greenland and the North Atlantic ocean during the last glacial period.

  5. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pinkney, Alfred E.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Evers, David C.; Hooper, Michael J.; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W.; Lazarus, Rebecca; Marshall, Harold G.; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A.; Schmerfeld, John J.; Sparling, Donald W.

    2015-01-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures

  6. Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.

    PubMed

    Pinkney, Alfred E; Driscoll, Charles T; Evers, David C; Hooper, Michael J; Horan, Jeffrey; Jones, Jess W; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Marshall, Harold G; Milliken, Andrew; Rattner, Barnett A; Schmerfeld, John; Sparling, Donald W

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and

  7. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

    2011-06-01

    Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as

  8. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steig, E.J.; Brook, E.J.; White, J.W.C.; Sucher, C.M.; Bender, M.L.; Lehman, S.J.; Morse, D.L.; Waddington, E.D.; Clow, G.D.

    1998-01-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events - the rapid warming that makes the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation - are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  9. Synchronous climate changes in antarctica and the north atlantic

    PubMed

    Steig; Brook; White; Sucher; Bender; Lehman; Morse; Waddington; Clow

    1998-10-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events-the rapid warming that marks the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation-are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. PMID:9756484

  10. Combining model simulations and paleoceanographic reconstructions for a process-based understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic/Arctic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jungclaus, Johann; Lohmann, Katja; Kleiven, Helga

    2013-04-01

    Climate variations on multi-decadal to centennial time scales in the North Atlantic sector are often postulated to result from changes in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation and the associated heat and fresh water transports. Testing this mainly model-based hypothesis for the historically recorded climate change over the last millennium requires at least decadally-resolved constrains on the state of the ocean and its circulation. Such records have become increasingly available in recent years. For example, the European Union FP7 project THOR (Thermohaline Overturning - at Risk?), delivered the first combined assessment of water mass exchange between the Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Coeval changes in both kinetic and chemical deep water proxies characterize variability in intensity and properties of North Atlantic Deep Water. Other recently published reconstructions provide information on variations of the oceanic heat transfer into the Arctic or the sea-ice extent in the Arcticover the last millennium. Here we show that high-resolution geological archives and model simulations over the last millennium can be combined to achieve a quantified, process-based understanding of ocean circulation variability and its impact on climate. On the one hand, reconstructions are necessary to evaluate the models' representation of hydrography, circulation and variability time-scales. On the other hand, the simulations provide the large-scale context to interpret the observed changes at discrete locations. Specifically, we address the dynamics of variations of the deep overflows across the Greenland Scotland Ridge, the coupling between deep flow and surface properties south of Greenland and the mechanisms leading to heat transport variations into the Arctic. We focus on internally-generated and externally forced variations in the ocean-atmosphere system over the last millennium and address also aspects of model uncertainty.

  11. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #6: PUBLICATION OF FIRST REPORT FROM MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research news edition announces the publication of the first report from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). The report is entitled, *Climate Change Impacts in the Mid-Atlantic Region -- A Workshop Report.* MARA is being conducted as part of the USGCRP First Nation...

  12. Cenozoic climates: evidence from the North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Berggren, W.A.

    1985-01-01

    Cenozoic biostratigraphy and climatology of the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas reflects the continuing fragmentation of Eurasia and concomitant changes on ocean-continent geometry. A latitudinal (zonal) Mesozoic circulation pattern evolved into a predominantly longitudinal (meridional) pattern during the Cenozoic in which the development of oceanic gateways and barriers gradually decreased the efficiency of poleward heat transfer resulting in the progressive climatic change which has taken place over the past 50 million years. Cenozoic distributional data from the North Atlantic and adjacent land areas will be reviewed from the following fields: a) terrestrial vertebrates and floras: b) marine calcareous microplankton and benthic foraminifera; c) other marine invertebrates. Available data suggests that the present climate in the northern hemisphere has resulted from a gradual, but inexorable, strengthening of latitudinal and vertical temperature gradients punctuated by several brief intervals of accelerated change. The absence of evidence for northern hemisphere polar glaciation prior to the late Neogene does not preclude seasonal cooling near the freezing point in post-Eocene time. Evidence for early Paleogene cold climates is not reflected in the fossil record.

  13. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  14. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  15. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: PROJECT DESCRIPTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of the USGCRP's First National Assessment effort, EPA's Global Change Research Program sponsored the first Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment. A multi-disciplinary team of 14 Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) faculty members led this regional assessment effort.

  16. Aerosol interactions with African/Atlantic climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Mechanistic relationships exist between variability of dust in the oceanic Saharan air layer (OSAL) and transient changes in the dynamics of Western Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This study provides evidence of possible interactions between dust in the OSAL region and African easterly jet-African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system in the climatology of boreal summer, when easterly wave activity peaks. Synoptic-scale changes in instability and precipitation in the African/Atlantic intertropical convergence zone are correlated with enhanced aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the OSAL region in response to anomalous 3D overturning circulations and upstream/downstream thermal anomalies at above and below the mean-AEJ level. Upstream and downstream anomalies are referred to the daily thermal/dynamical changes over the West African monsoon region and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Our hypothesis is that AOD in the OSAL is positively correlated with the downstream AEWs and negatively correlated with the upstream waves from climatological perspective. The similarity between the 3D pattern of thermal/dynamical anomalies correlated with dust outbreaks and those of AEWs provides a mechanism for dust radiative heating in the atmosphere to reinforce AEW activity. We proposed that the interactions of OSAL dust with regional climate mainly occur through coupling of dust with the AEWs.

  17. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...

  18. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  19. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  20. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  1. Impact of the atmospheric climate modes on wave climate in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Asensio, Adrián; Tsimplis, Michael N.; Marcos, Marta; Feng, Xiangbo; Gomis, Damià; Jordà, Gabriel; Josey, Simon

    2014-05-01

    This study establishes the relationships between the mean modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and present wave climate. The modes considered, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic Western Russian pattern (EA/WR) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAN), are obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre. The wave data sets used consist of buoy records and two high-resolution simulations of significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) forced with ERA-40 (1958-2002) and ERA-INTERIM (1989-2008) wind fields. The results show the winter impact of each mode on wave parameters which are discussed regionally. The NAO and EA pattern increase winter SWH up to 1 m per unit index at the Scottish and Spanish coasts, respectively, during their positive phase; while EA pattern causes clockwise changes of winter MWD up to more than 60 degrees per unit index at the Bay of Biscay during its negative phase. EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impact.

  2. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  3. Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute

    SciTech Connect

    Courtney Lane

    2011-12-20

    As the Department of Energy stated in its 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report, there will need to be enhanced outreach efforts on a national, state, regional, and local level to communicate wind development opportunities, benefits and challenges to a diverse set of stakeholders. To help address this need, PennFuture was awarded funding to create the Mid-Atlantic Regional Wind Energy Institute to provide general education and outreach on wind energy development across Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Over the course of the two-year grant period, PennFuture used its expertise on wind energy policy and development in Pennsylvania and expanded it to other states in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture accomplished this through reaching out and establishing connections with policy makers, local environmental groups, health and economic development organizations, and educational institutions and wind energy developers throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture conducted two regional wind educational forums that brought together wind industry representatives and public interest organizations from across the region to discuss and address wind development in the Mid-Atlantic region. PennFuture developed the agenda and speakers in collaboration with experts on the ground in each state to help determine the critical issue to wind energy in each location. The sessions focused on topics ranging from the basics of wind development; model ordinance and tax issues; anti-wind arguments and counter points; wildlife issues and coalition building. In addition to in-person events, PennFuture held three webinars on (1) Generating Jobs with Wind Energy; (2) Reviving American Manufacturing with Wind Power; and (3) Wind and Transmission. PennFuture also created a web page for the institute (http://www.midatlanticwind.org) that contains an online database of fact sheets, research reports, sample advocacy letters, top anti-wind claims and information on how to

  4. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming. PMID:18451859

  5. Cyclic growth in Atlantic region continental crust

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodwin, A. M.

    1986-01-01

    Atlantic region continental crust evolved in successive stages under the influence of regular, approximately 400 Ma-long tectonic cycles. Data point to a variety of operative tectonic processes ranging from widespread ocean floor consumption (Wilson cycle) to entirely ensialic (Ampferer-style subduction or simple crustal attenuation-compression). Different processes may have operated concurrently in some or different belts. Resolving this remains the major challenge.

  6. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  7. Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic Atlantic Region Over the Last 2,000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhola, A.; Hanhijarvi, S.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend.

  8. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Robinson, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

  9. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate.

    PubMed

    Dowsett, Harry J; Chandler, Mark A; Robinson, Marci M

    2009-01-13

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative. PMID:18852090

  10. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between ~1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

  11. Atlantic forcing of Amazonian climates in the last ice age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bush, M. B.; Mosblech, N.; Valencia, B. G.; Hodell, D. A.; Gosling, W. D.; Van Calsteren, P. W.; Thomas, L. E.; Curtis, J. H.

    2011-12-01

    An absence of study sites means that the relative influence of orbitally driven presession cycles and millenial scale variability upon ice-age Amazonian precipitation is unknown. Here we present a continuous isotopic (δO18 and C13) record spanning the period from ~93-8 ka, from the aseasonal forests of Amazonian Ecuador. The variability in δO18 depletion is probably related to the relative strength of evapotranspired moisture (less depleted) and tropical Atlantic moisture carried across the basin by the South American Low Level Jet (more depleted). Times of strengthened South American Low Level Jet probably correspond to increased overall moisture availability and hence elevated precipitation. The occurrence of markedly depleted δO18 signatures during Heinrich events suggests a strong influence of the Atlantic Ocean on this system, and that these northern hemispheric stadials induced wet episodes in western Amazonia. Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been suggested to strengthen the South American Low Level Jet. The isotopic records reveal strong cohesion with previously published records from southern Brazil. A precessional influence amplifies the north Atlantic signal between c. 93 ka and 50 ka. However, after c. 50 ka the precessional signal weakens, perhaps sugesting that at a critical size the Laurentide ice mass exerted a strong influence on Neotropical climates suppressing the weaker forcing associated with precession. Contrary to long-standing expectation, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ± 2 ka) does not stand out as time of aridity in this record. However, between c. 35 ka and 18 ka there is a drift toward less depleted rainfall. One hypothesis to account for this observation is that the climate was becoming more seasonal as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) formed further south than its modern location. The resulting weakened influence of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) would probably reduce wet

  12. Using Three Global Climate Indices to Forecast Hurricane Activity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative relationships between global climate indices and hurricane activity in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have not been widely studied. A few studies have explored qualitative relationships between hurricane activity and such climate indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea-surface temperatures, among others. The current work presents the most comprehensive analysis of the potential relationships between 39 different climate indices and hurricane activity using regression and frequency analysis. Attempts are made to develop statistical relationships between any one of these indices and hurricane activity in the eastern and western Pacific as well as the Atlantic Oceans. There were three climate indices, one per region, showing significantly higher correlation in each region. They were the ENSO Precipitation Index (EPI) in the western Pacific, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in the eastern Pacific, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) in the Atlantic. The linear relationships between each index and hurricane numbers resulted in Pearson-R values of near 0.65 or greater. In addition, the Madden-Julian Oscillation showed some correlation with hurricane activity in each region and therefore was included in the analysis. Several important results were found during these analyses. For instance, the relationship between the AMM index and hurricane numbers in the Atlantic Ocean revealed that the average July - October AMM index was greater than -0.5 within a range of -5.0 to 5.0 for years within the last 70 years when the number of hurricanes during that same period was greater than 7. It is also shown that the number of hurricanes expected to be exceeded or not exceeded at frequencies of 50- to 100-years, for example, varies substantially depending on the range of AMM index values being analyzed. Similar results are shown for the eastern and western Pacific Ocean as well. Such relationships provide forecasters with a simple tool using only

  13. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  14. Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2015-10-01

    The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

  15. Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balascio, N. L.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Bradley, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations, and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher-frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial-scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansion during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a normal feature of

  16. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  17. North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Oppo, Delia W; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Merkel, Ute; Zhang, Xiao; Steinke, Stephan; Lückge, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells. PMID:24784218

  18. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lifland, Jonathan

    A new AGU book, The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, edited by James W. Hurrell, Yochanan Kushnir, Geir Ottersen, and Martin Visbeck, investigates the current theories, models, and observations of the NAO and assesses future directions for research. The book is the first on this important phenomenon, the most prominent and recurring weather pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. In this issue, Eos talks with lead editor, James Hurrell. Hurrell is deputy section head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, where he has contributed to the International Panel on Climate Change assessments, and works with the international research program on climate variability and predictability.

  19. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J.-M.; Grist, Jeremy P.; Smeed, David A.

    2015-05-01

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

  20. Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

    2015-05-28

    Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States. PMID:26017453

  1. INDICATORS OF CHANGE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERSHEDS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE IN UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric temperature in the past century relative to the preceding millennium strongly suggests that we are in a period of rapid global climate change. The mid-Atlantic region is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which...

  2. Cryptotephrochronology in the North Atlantic Region : Linking Greenland Ice and North Atlantic Marine Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, P. M.; Davies, S. M.; Bourne, A.; Meara, R.; Cook, E.; Griggs, A.

    2012-12-01

    Tephrochronology is a powerful technique that can be utilised for the correlation and synchronisation of disparate palaeoclimatic records. Thus, this technique has considerable potential for addressing key questions relating to rapid climatic events that characterised the last glacial period. In particular, our search for microscopic tephra layers or cryptotephras within the Greenland ice-cores and marine cores from the North Atlantic Ocean has the potential to test the phase relationships between the atmospheric and oceanic responses to these high-magnitude and abrupt climatic events. Here we report on results of investigations of the MIS 5 to 2 time period drawing on examples from several North Atlantic marine cores from various sites within the North Atlantic including the Rockall Trough, Faroe Islands region, Goban Spur, Gardar Drift and Irminger Basin. These investigations fall within the context of the SMART and TRACE projects. Several cryptotephra horizons have been identified by applying techniques first developed for terrestrial sedimentary material. The two main challenges associated with cryptotephra work in the glacial North Atlantic are i) determining the dominant transportation processes and ii) assessing the influence of secondary reworking processes and the integrity of the isochrons. The potential influence of these processes is investigated by assessing shard size, geochemical (major and trace element) heterogeneity and co-variance of IRD input and sortable silt for some cores. High-resolution investigations of the Greenland ice-cores of NGRIP, GRIP and NEEM over the same time period have identified cryptotephras from numerous previously unrecognised eruptions. The principal source of horizons is Iceland, with some correlated to specific volcanic systems such as Katla, Grimsvötn, Hekla and Veidivötn-Bardabunga. An overarching aspect of this work is the robust geochemical fingerprinting of the small glass shards within these cryptotephras using

  3. The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

  4. 77 FR 35357 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-13

    ...-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.). On January 24, 2012 (77 FR 3393... rule implementing the Atlantic HMS electronic dealer ] reporting system (76 FR 37750; June 28, 2011) or...; Commercial Atlantic Region Non-Sandbar Large Coastal Shark Fishery Opening Date AGENCY: National...

  5. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  6. Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes.

    PubMed

    McManus, J F; Francois, R; Gherardi, J-M; Keigwin, L D; Brown-Leger, S

    2004-04-22

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes. PMID:15103371

  7. Salt transport in the Subpolar Gyre amplifies North Atlantic climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Born, Andreas; Stocker, Thomas F.; Britt Sandø, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Transport of salt in the Irminger Current, the northern branch of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre coupling the eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic, plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward, which would weaken deep convection in the Labrador Sea and thus the gyre itself. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with large implications for climate variability and predictability.

  8. Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

    2016-06-01

    We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between ~1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian

  9. Building International Research Partnerships in the North Atlantic-Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benway, Heather M.; Hofmann, Eileen; St. John, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The North Atlantic-Arctic region, which is critical to the health and socioeconomic well being of North America and Europe, is susceptible to climate-driven changes in circulation, biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems. The need for strong investment in the study of biogeochemical and ecosystem processes and interactions with physical processes over a range of time and space scales in this region was clearly stated in the 2013 Galway Declaration, an intergovernmental statement on Atlantic Ocean cooperation (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-459_en.htm). Subsequently, a workshop was held to bring together researchers from the United States, Canada, and Europe with expertise across multiple disciplines to discuss an international research initiative focused on key features, processes, and ecosystem services (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, spring bloom dynamics, fisheries, etc.) and associated sensitivities to climate changes.

  10. Short-term Holocene climate variability in coastal mid-Norway - the terrestrial response to the North Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klug, M.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Piotrowski, J. A.; Heinemeier, J.; Rubensdotter, L.; Faust, J.; Knies, J.

    2012-04-01

    Coastal areas are known to be susceptible to maritime climate variations, especially where prevailing wind directions provide humidity and latent heat to the land masses. Temperature reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic, and from northern and western Norway show simultaneous changes on millennial to centennial scales during the Holocene. However also latitudinal climatic differences occur during the Holocene. These indicate a more complex system along the Norwegian coast with regional temperature variations depending on more than only North Atlantic's climate. Climate sensitive archives such as lake sediments in coastal mid-Norway provide the opportunity to study the influence of and the terrestrial response to climate variations mediated by the North Atlantic and allow the extension of our knowledge about regional peculiarities along the Norwegian coast. Lake Blomstertjønna, a small lake outside Trondheim at 427 m a.s.l., enables a detailed study of climatic and environmental variations during the Holocene. The entire succession is 590 cm long and is composed of minerogenic sediments at the bottom and dominating biogenic sediments in the upper 495 cm. Radiocarbon dating of macrofossils aided by tephra identification reveal a lake history that started after deglaciation at about 12 kyr BP and shifted to a biogenic productive lake with overall uniform sedimentation rates at about 11 kyr BP. Biogeochemical proxies like total organic carbon and total sulphur and geophysical parameters show a weak, i.e. more even response to climatic variations in the gyttja-rich section and indicate that temperature was not a limiting factor for the lake productivity. In contrast, geochemical elemental ratios from XRF scanning reveal a pronounced long- and short-term variability of elemental composition. The long-term trend of selected elemental ratios reflects the general Holocene temperature evolution with higher values during the Holocene Thermal Maximum and a

  11. North Atlantic overturning and climate response to meltwater forcing during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muschitiello, Francesco; Dokken, Trond; Väliranta, Minna; Björck, Svante; Davies, Siwan; Luoto, Tomi; Schenk, Frederik; Smittenberg, Rienk; Reimer, Paula; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The last deglaciation (˜18-11 kyr BP) is an important analog to investigate the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to future ice-sheet melting and its impact on regional climate change. In this study we present synchronised terrestrial and marine proxy records that provide insight into freshwater run-off and climate variability in the eastern North Atlantic during the last deglaciation. The reconstructions show that atmospheric circulation rather than freshwater forcing primarily controls the stability of the AMOC. However, catastrophic meltwater drainage from the Scandinavian continent may have solicited complex feedbacks necessary to account for the rapid large-scale hydro-climate shifts and the major weakening of the overturning circulation system at the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial.

  12. The Relationship between Atlantic Overturning and Climate in the Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howe, J. N. W.; Piotrowski, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation play an important role in modulating global climate by controlling northward heat transport in the surface ocean and carbon storage in the deep ocean. We present a new high resolution 1.2 Myr record of neodymium isotopes (ɛNd) - a proxy for water mass mixing - measured on foraminifera and fish debris from site ODP 929 [6.0°N, 43.7°W, 4356 m] on the Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean. This record reveals a fundamental step-change in the nature of glacial Atlantic overturning across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as well as providing new insight into the relationship between ocean circulation and greenhouse gas forcing during the period known as the "lukewarm" interglacials.Comparison with benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopes from the same core reveals periods of significant decoupling between ɛNd and δ13C, demonstrating that deep Atlantic water mass mixing proportions and nutrient chemistry can vary independently of one another. In contrast, comparison of the ɛNd record with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes reveals a tight coupling, exhibiting the control of Northern Hemisphere climate on both ice volume and Atlantic overturning. The high resolution of the records allows cross spectral analysis of the phasing between authigenic ɛNd and both benthic foraminiferal δ13C and δ18O. This reveals that the different proxy records are coherent at time periods of 100-, 40- and 23-kyr which correlate with orbital forcing. However, the changes in each variable at these periods are not always in phase, indicating that the proxies exhibit different temporal responses to climatic forcings.

  13. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  14. Ocean-atmosphere interaction in the seasonal to decadal variations of tropical Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okumura, Yuko

    The tropical Atlantic ocean and atmosphere display distinct seasonal cycles with considerable year-to-year variations superimposed. The present study investigates processes and mechanisms important for tropical Atlantic climate and its variability, using numerical models and observational data, with an emphasis on ocean-atmosphere interaction. For the seasonal cycle, topics of particular interest are the rapid development of the monsoon-cold tongue complex in boreal summer and the oceanic response to the secondary acceleration of equatorial easterly winds in November; for interannual-to-decadal variability, they are the effect of the November thermocline shoaling on the equatorial zonal mode and the atmospheric response to the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) dipole mode. Atmospheric model experiments indicate that interaction between the equatorial cold tongue and the West African monsoon is essential for the rapid seasonal transition from boreal spring to summer. Mechanisms are identified for the summertime acceleration of equatorial easterly wind, which contributes to rapid equatorial cooling by forcing upwelling and thermocline shoaling. Analysis of high-resolution satellite/in-situ data reveals the equatorial SST change associated with the November easterly wind acceleration and thermocline shoaling. This overlooked climatic feature is further shown to give rise to a new mode of tropical Atlantic variability---Atlantic Nino II---which resembles the boreal summer zonal mode but peaks in November--December, and is statistically independent of the preceding summer events. Atlantic Nino II significantly affects interannual rainfall variations in the coastal Congo-Angola region, and evolves into the meridional mode in the following spring, affecting rainfall variations in northeast Brazil. It thus fills an important climate predictability gap in time, during the season for which the local variability was otherwise poorly understood. The atmospheric model

  15. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.

    PubMed

    Ferro, Viviane G; Lemes, Priscila; Melo, Adriano S; Loyola, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future. PMID:25229422

  16. Multi-decadal-scale records of North Atlantic climate variability during the last and present interglacials and preceding glacial terminations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Amat, Patricia; Zahn, Rainer

    2013-04-01

    High-resolution records of natural interglacial climate variability can provide knowledge if the currently ongoing climate change and variability are part of or are already beyond the natural state. Warmer-than-present climatic conditions, a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet and higher sea level are some of the features the Last Interglacial (LIG, MIS5e; 129-115 kyr) climate has in common with numerous model projections of our future climate (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006; Koop et al., 2009). Establishing multi-decadal resolution records of past North Atlantic climate variability hence contributes to a better understanding of the ocean and climate sensitivity of the wider North Atlantic region. We present palaeoceanographic time series of surface ocean climatology from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 976 in the Alboran Sea, westernmost Mediterranean that span the LIG and Present Interglacial (PIG, Holocene, 11-0 kyr). The site receives North Atlantic climate signals through the atmosphere and with the advection of Atlantic inflow waters which in connection with the high rate of sediment deposition underscores the exceptional quality of the site to monitor North Atlantic climate variability at multi-decadal resolution (60-90 yrs). Sea surface temperature (SST) time series derived from Mg/Ca ratios and stable isotope records (δ18O, δ13C) of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides are presented. Mg/Ca data display similar SST for the climatic optima PIG and LIG. The records compare well with speleothem and ice core palaeoclimatic profiles, confirming that Site 976 palaeo-profiles reflect climate of the North Atlantic region. The close link between SSTMg-Caand the LIG δ18O record from the Antro del Corchia speleothem in northern Italy highlights the strong connection between marine and terrestrial climatology during that time indicating a farfield contribution of atmospheric signals. Comparison with SST and benthic δ13C records at North Atlantic sites instructs

  17. Linking North Atlantic Teleconnections to Latitudinal Variability of Wave Climate Along the North American Atlantic Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provancha, C.; Adams, P. N.; Hegermiller, C.; Storlazzi, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Shoreline change via coastal erosion and accretion is largely influenced by variations in ocean wave climate. Identifying the sources of these variations is challenging because the timing of wave energy delivery varies over multiple timescales within ocean basins. We present the results of an investigation of USACE Wave Information Studies hindcast hourly wave heights, periods, and directions along the North American Atlantic coast from 1980-2012, designed to explore links between wave climate and teleconnection patterns. Trends in median and extreme significant wave heights (SWHs) demonstrate that mean monthly SWHs increased from 1 to 5 cm/yr along the roughly 3000 km reach of study area, with changes in hurricane season waves appearing to be most influential in producing the overall trends. Distributions of SWHs categorized by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, show that positive-period NAO SWHs are greater than negative-period NAO SWHs along the entire eastern seaboard (25°N to 45°N). The most prominent wave direction off Cape Cod, MA during positive-period NAO is approximately 105°, as compared to approximately 75° during negative-period NAO. Prominent wave directions between Cape Canaveral, FL, and Savannah, GA exhibit a similar shift but during opposite phases of the NAO. The results of this analysis suggest that the atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with contrasting NAO phases can significantly change the wave climate observed offshore along the North American Atlantic coast, altering alongshore wave energy fluxes and sediment transport patterns along the coast.

  18. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  19. Prediction skill of monthly SST in the North Atlantic Ocean in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhu, Jieshun; Wen, Caihong

    2013-06-01

    This work evaluates the skill of retrospective predictions of the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and investigates the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the prediction skill over this region. It is shown that the CFSv2 prediction skill with 0-8 month lead displays a "tripole"-like pattern with areas of higher skills in the high latitude and tropical North Atlantic, surrounding the area of lower skills in the mid-latitude western North Atlantic. This "tripole"-like prediction skill pattern is mainly due to the persistency of SST anomalies (SSTAs), which is related to the influence of ENSO and NAO over the North Atlantic. The influences of ENSO and NAO, and their seasonality, result in the prediction skill in the tropical North Atlantic the highest in spring and the lowest in summer. In CFSv2, the ENSO influence over the North Atlantic is overestimated but the impact of NAO over the North Atlantic is not well simulated. However, compared with CFSv1, the overall skills of CFSv2 are slightly higher over the whole North Atlantic, particularly in the high latitudes and the northwest North Atlantic. The model prediction skill beyond the persistency initially presents in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and extends to the low latitudes with time. That might suggest that the model captures the associated air-sea interaction in the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 prediction is less skillful than that of SSTA persistency in the high latitudes, implying that over this region the persistency is even better than CFSv2 predictions. Also, both persistent and CFSv2 predictions have relatively low skills along the Gulf Stream.

  20. The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Iraqi climate 1982-2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khidher, Salar Ali; Pilesjö, Petter

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the climate in Iraq, with a focus on precipitation, temperature, and number of Mediterranean cyclones. It was found that the influence of the NAO varies per climate indicator. For example, the influence is greater on precipitation than on temperature. One conclusion of the study is that the mean annual precipitation in Iraq increases during a negative phase of the NAO and decreases during a positive phase. In addition, the correlation between NAO and precipitation is more pronounced in the south of the country than in the middle and northern regions.

  1. Climate Forcing on the Sedimentary Pb Isotope Record of the Equatorial Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abouchami, W.; Zabel, M.

    2001-12-01

    glacial-interglacial isotopic contrast along the arrays indicates that changes in the relative proportions of the contributing Pb source(s) occurred, with predominance of the unradiogenic sources during glacial times and vice-versa. This switch in Pb provenance also correlates with variations in terrigenous fluxes in the two basins. In the Eastern Atlantic, we suggest that this reflects the seasonal influence of the NE Trades and Saharan Air Layer which transport material of different origin and nature. In the Western Atlantic, glacial sea level lowering led to exposure of continental shelves and, consequently enhanced detrital fluxes, which may explain the variability of Pb sources. Altogether, these records hint at a climate feedback on Pb provenance in the Tropical Atlantic over the past 200 ka. The seasonality of surface ocean circulation and wind patterns in this region, the terrestrial climate of surrounding lands (South America and Africa), and the mode of terrigenous inputs to the two basins acted in conjunction to produce the glacial-interglacial Pb isotope cyclicity.

  2. Pliocene pre-glacial North Atlantic: A coupled sea surface-deep ocean circulation climate response

    SciTech Connect

    Ishman, S.E.; Dowsett, H.J. . National Center)

    1992-01-01

    A latitudinal transect of North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project Holes from the equatorial region to 56 N in the 2,300- to 3,000-meter depth range was designed for a high-resolution study of coupled sea surface and deep ocean response to climate change. Precise age control was provided using magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data from the cores to identify the 4.0 to 2.2 Ma interval, a period of warm-to-cool climatic transitions in the North Atlantic. The objective is to evaluate incremental (10 kyr) changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and deep North Atlantic circulation patterns between 4.0 and 2.2 Ma to develop a coupled sea surface-deep ocean circulation response model. Sea surface temperature (SST) estimates are based on planktic foraminifer-based factor-analytic transfer functions. Oxygen isotopic data from paired samples provide tests of the estimated temperature gradients between localities. Benthic foraminifer assemblage data and [partial derivative]O-18 and [partial derivative]C-13 Isotopic data are used to quantitatively determine changes in deep North Atlantic circulation. These data are used to determine changes in source area (North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) or Antarctic Bottom Water) and (or) in the components of NADW that were present (Upper or Lower NADW). These paired paleoceanographic sea surface and deep circulation interpretations over a 1.8 my interval form the basis for a coupled sea surface-deep circulation response model for the Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean.

  3. Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

    2014-05-01

    A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides

  4. Cod Collapse and the Climate in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, K. C.; Oremus, K. L.; Gaines, S.

    2014-12-01

    Effective fisheries management requires forecasting population changes. We find a negative relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and subsequently surveyed biomass and catch of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, off the New England coast. A 1-unit NAO increase is associated with a 17% decrease in surveyed biomass of age-1 cod the following year. This relationship persists as the cod mature, such that observed NAO can be used to forecast future adult biomass. We also document that an NAO event lowers catch for up to 15 years afterward. In contrast to forecasts by existing stock assessment models, our NAO-driven statistical model successfully hindcasts the recent collapse of New England cod fisheries following strong NAO events in 2007 and 2008 (see figure). This finding can serve as a template for forecasting other fisheries affected by climatic conditions.

  5. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

    PubMed

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Ottersen, Geir; Hurrell, James W; Mysterud, Atle; Lima, Mauricio; Chan, Kung-Sik; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Adlandsvik, Bjørn

    2003-10-22

    Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet. PMID:14561270

  6. Influence of the Amazon/Orinoco Plume on the summertime Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

    2010-11-01

    A plume of fresh water forms in the Atlantic due to discharge from the Amazon and Orinoco rivers and creates a stable barrier layer near the surface that is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The boreal summer atmospheric response to this sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is investigated using a regional atmospheric model. Results from two ensembles, one with the plume SSTA removed, and the other with an idealized plume SSTA imposed, reveal that the scale of the SSTA forcing is large enough to influence the summer climate over the tropical western Atlantic and Central America. Rainfall increases over the SSTAs and downstream over the Caribbean Sea and Central America, as sensible and latent heating associated with the plume SSTAs force a Rossby/Kelvin wave dynamical response. The result is westward shift by 12° of longitude of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, a northward repositioning of the summertime subtropical anticyclone extension over the Gulf of Mexico, and increased moisture convergence into Central America. Warm SSTAs associated with the plume also influence simulated summer tropical Atlantic storms. The presence of the plume increases the number of Atlantic basin storms by 60% (i.e., 4.66 more storms). An increase in storm intensity also occurs, with a 61% increase of the number of storms that reach tropical storm and hurricane strength. However, these storms tend to be shorter lived and are associated with a 12% decrease in the number of tropical storm days. Storm trajectories also shift westward over the western Atlantic associated with the presence of the plume, bringing them closer to the U.S. coast as both the steering winds and vertical wind shear over the Atlantic are modified. These results suggest that the August storm systems may be more likely to track closer to the U.S. coast and/or over the Gulf of Mexico. Since the Amazon and Orinoco rivers are fed primarily by rainfall in the Amazon Basin during

  7. Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kageyama, M.; Mignot, J.; Swingedouw, D.; Marzin, C.; Alkama, R.; Marti, O.

    2009-09-01

    Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv) resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv) AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv) are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon

  8. Reversed North Atlantic gyre dynamics in present and glacial climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montoya, Marisa; Born, Andreas; Levermann, Anders

    2011-03-01

    The dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) are assessed under present and glacial boundary conditions by investigating the SPG sensitivity to surface wind-stress changes in a coupled climate model. To this end, the gyre transport is decomposed in Ekman, thermohaline, and bottom transports. Surface wind-stress variations are found to play an important indirect role in SPG dynamics through their effect on water-mass densities. Our results suggest the existence of two dynamically distinct regimes of the SPG, depending on the absence or presence of deep water formation (DWF) in the Nordic Seas and a vigorous Greenland-Scotland ridge (GSR) overflow. In the first regime, the GSR overflow is weak and the SPG strength increases with wind-stress as a result of enhanced outcropping of isopycnals in the centre of the SPG. As soon as a vigorous GSR overflow is established, its associated positive density anomalies on the southern GSR slope reduce the SPG strength. This has implications for past glacial abrupt climate changes, insofar as these can be explained through latitudinal shifts in North Atlantic DWF sites and strengthening of the North Atlantic current. Regardless of the ultimate trigger, an abrupt shift of DWF into the Nordic Seas could result both in a drastic reduction of the SPG strength and a sudden reversal in its sensitivity to wind-stress variations. Our results could provide insight into changes in the horizontal ocean circulation during abrupt glacial climate changes, which have been largely neglected up to now in model studies.

  9. The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabbatelli, Thomas A.; Mann, Michael E.

    2007-09-01

    We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or `ASO') Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main development region (`MDR': 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season.

  10. Multi-model ensemble analysis of Pacific and Atlantic SST variability in unperturbed climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.

  11. Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

    2016-04-01

    Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is

  12. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  13. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  14. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  15. Climate history in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre over the last 4 Ma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wojcieszek, D. E.; Dekens, P. S.

    2010-12-01

    The early Pliocene (3-5 Ma) is the most recent time in the Earth’s history when climate was significantly warmer than today. Even though the climatic boundary conditions (i.e. incoming solar radiation, distribution of continents, atmospheric pCO2) were similar to today, the average global temperature was about 3-4°C warmer, ice sheets were smaller, and the sea level was about 35 m higher. Previous studies show that in the early Pliocene, in both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, sea surface temperatures (SST) of the eastern equatorial and coastal upwelling regions were warmer than today (by ~2-9°C), while western equatorial warm pools had SST similar to today. As a consequence, zonal and meridional SST gradients were reduced. According to atmospheric modeling studies, the reduced gradients played a role in sustaining Pliocene warmth and the increasing gradients, caused by the cooling of the upwelling regions, favored the northern hemisphere glaciation. However, the lack of data from non-upwelling regions forces these models to interpolate SSTs based on the gradients in the modern ocean. This research is the first to provide data from a non-upwelling region in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. We present G.sacculifer Mg/Ca and δ18O records at the ODP site 1264 (28.53°S; 2.85°E, 2505 m water depth), located on the Walvis Ridge in the south Atlantic subtropical gyre. The Mg/Ca SST record displays no long-term trend over the past 4 Ma. The south Atlantic subtropical gyre was not affected by the forcing that caused the 8-9°C cooling of the Benguela upwelling, as recorded at ODP sites 1082 and 1084. The difference between SST trends at ODP sites 1082 and 1084 and the ODP site 1264 indicate a significant change in SST gradients between south Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Benguela upwelling region. The complementary δ18O record will provide information about local salinity changes due to ice volume changes. The combined records will give us a thorough picture of

  16. Influences of North Atlantic climate variability on low-flows in the Connecticut River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinschneider, Scott; Brown, Casey

    2011-10-01

    SummaryConnections between summertime, ecologically relevant low-flow indicators and both winter and spring climate phenomena are explored for the Connecticut River Basin, with an emphasis on assessing forecast potential. Low-flow streamflow statistics deemed important for ecological health, including minimum 1-day mean flows, minimum 7-day mean flows, and monthly streamflow averages from June to September, are derived from 61 years of continuous, daily streamflow data at 15 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauging stations across the basin. Relationships between the ecological flow indicators with leading sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure are investigated using correlation and composite analysis. Results suggest lagged relationships of up to 5 months between summer streamflow and the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, springtime east coast pressure trough, and springtime North Atlantic Tripole. These climate states have been linked to shifts between zonal and meridonal airflow as well as sea-surface temperature anomalies off the coast of the eastern US, both of which have implications for the movement of moisture systems over the study region. This study suggests that residual influences on airflow and sea-surface temperature persist into the summer following these earlier climate states, influencing low-flow hydrology in the region. As eco-hydrologic flow targets often conflict with other stakeholder objectives within a watershed, reservoir operators may utilize such lagged teleconnection patterns to predict annual low-flow characteristics in the region and help negotiate tradeoffs between traditional water management objectives and those emphasizing ecological conservation.

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  18. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  20. Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanhijärvi, Sami; Tingley, Martin P.; Korhola, Atte

    2013-10-01

    Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset

  1. Tropical Rain Forest and Climate Dynamics of the Atlantic Lowland, Southern Brazil, during the Late Quaternary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behling, Hermann; Negrelle, Raquel R. B.

    2001-11-01

    Palynological analysis of a core from the Atlantic rain forest region in Brazil provides unprecedented insight into late Quaternary vegetational and climate dynamics within this southern tropical lowland. The 576-cm-long sediment core is from a former beach-ridge "valley," located 3 km inland from the Atlantic Ocean. Radio-carbon dates suggest that sediment deposition began prior to 35,000 14C yr B.P. Between ca. 37,500 and ca. 27,500 14C yr B.P. and during the last glacial maximum (LGM; ca. 27,500 to ca. 14,500 14C yr B.P.), the coastal rain forest was replaced by grassland and patches of cold-adapted forest. Tropical trees, such as Alchornea, Moraceae/Urticaceae, and Arecaceae, were almost completely absent during the LGM. Furthermore, their distributions were shifted at least 750 km further north, suggesting a cooling between 3°C and 7°C and a strengthening of Antarctic cold fronts during full-glacial times. A depauperate tropical rain forest developed as part of a successional sequence after ca. 12,300 14C yr B.P. There is no evidence that Araucaria trees occurred in the Atlantic lowland during glacial times. The rain forest was disturbed by marine incursions during the early Holocene period until ca. 6100 14C yr B.P., as indicated by the presence of microforaminifera. A closed Atlantic rain forest then developed at the study site.

  2. Quasi-periodic Climate Teleconnections via the North Atlantic Oscillation: A New Perspective From Tree Rings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyers, S. R.; Pagani, M.

    2004-12-01

    Internal modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly contribute to regional weather patterns on an inter-annual basis. Changes in the behavior of these modes over decadal and/or centennial timescales may represent an important driver of past climate events and future climate change. Importantly, if the internal modes express band-limited (periodic to quasi-periodic) variability, they provide a useful template for climate forecasting. Unfortunately, our ability to directly quantify the periodic/quasi-periodic nature of climate response to the internal modes is constrained by the limited temporal extent of instrumental records. In this study we present a novel approach toward recognition of band-limited climatic effects of the NAO in proxy records that span the past 400 years. The spatial climatic response of the NAO between northern and southern Europe provides a framework for detecting the influence of the NAO in proxy climate records. Specifically, if the NAO-forced climate signal is present it should be strongly correlated and anti-phased between the northern and southern regions of western Europe. To prospect for the NAO signal in paleoclimate data we employ independent networks of tree ring width series from Scandinavia and the Mediterranean. These locations were selected because modern instrumental records of the NAO and precipitation are significantly correlated in these regions, and tree ring width sensitivity to climate variability is maximized. The tree-ring width data from western Europe reveals a distinct 25-year quasi-periodic synchronization of climate change between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean during the 17th-20th centuries. Based on the dipole character of this signal, we propose that it is representative of climate forcing via the NAO. On this timescale of climate variability, dry/cold climate events in northern Europe are closely tied to wet events in

  3. Influence of the North Atlantic on climate change in the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glok, Natalia; Alekseev, Genrikh; Smirnov, Aleksander; Vyasilova, Anastasia

    2015-04-01

    This study is based on the observations taken from the meteorological archives, satellite and historic visual observations of sea ice, global SST, data of water temperature in the upper layer on the section in the Barents Sea. For processing data was used factor analysis, calculation of correlation matrices with different delay between the Barents Sea and selected areas in North Atlantic. It is shown that the inflow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea has a major influence on the climate of the region and its changes affect the variations of all climate characteristics. Decadal and interannual changes of air temperature in the Barents Sea are closely related (correlation over 0.8) with temperature of water, coming from the Norwegian Sea. The effect of these changes is seen in the air temperature in the Kara Sea. Atlantic water inflow especially impact on winter sea ice in the Barents Sea. The correlation between the average water temperature at section along the Kola meridian and sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in May reaches values of -0.86. To enhance the predictive capability established dependence, the study was extended to the area of the North Atlantic, where temperature anomalies are formed. In the North Atlantic from the equator to 80 ° N were identified 6 areas where the average annual SST anomalies are associated with SST anomalies and sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea. Detailed analysis with monthly SST from HadISST for 1951 - 2013 identified two areas with the greatest influence on the Barents Sea. One area is the northern region of the Gulf Stream and other is the equatorial region. The corresponding delays amounted to 26 months and 4-5 years. The relationship between changes AMO index, averaged over August-October, and SIE in the Barents Sea in January is evaluated. Correlation coefficient between them with 3 year delay is -0.54. Implemented study revealed the importance of teleconnection between SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and SST

  4. Causes of Ocean Surface temperature Changes in Atlantic andPacific Topical Cyclogenesis Regions

    SciTech Connect

    Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Gleckler, P.J.; Bonfils, C.; Wehner, M.F.; AchutaRao, K.; Barnett, T.P.; Boyle, J.S.; Bruggemann, W.; Fiorino, M.; Gillett, N.; Hansen, J.E.; Jones, P.D.; Klein, S.A.; Meehl,G.A.; Raper, S.C.B.; Reynolds, R.W.; Stott, P.A.; Taylor, K.E.; Washington, W.M.

    2006-01-31

    Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 to 0.67 C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system, even under conservative assumptions regarding the magnitude of this variability. Model simulations that include external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors are generally capable of replicating observed SST changes in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

  5. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  6. Low-frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hengstum, Peter J.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Kingston, Andrew W.; Williams, Bruce E.; Scott, David B.; Reinhardt, Eduard G.; Little, Shawna N.; Patterson, William P.

    2015-02-01

    North Atlantic climate archives provide evidence for increased storm activity during the Little Ice Age (150 to 600 calibrated years (cal years) B.P.) and centered at 1700 and 3000 cal years B.P., typically in centennial-scale sedimentary records. Meteorological (tropical versus extratropical storms) and climate forcings of this signal remain poorly understood, although variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are frequently hypothesized to be involved. Here we present records of late Holocene storminess and coastal temperature change from a Bermudian submarine cave that is hydrographically circulated with the coastal ocean. Thermal variability in the cave is documented by stable oxygen isotope values of cave benthic foraminifera, which document a close linkage between regional temperature change and NAO phasing during the late Holocene. However, erosion of terrestrial sediment into the submarine cave provides a "storminess signal" that correlates with higher-latitude storminess archives and broader North Atlantic cooling events. Understanding the driver of this storminess signal will require higher-resolution storm records to disentangle the contribution of tropical versus extratropical cyclones and a better understanding of cyclone activity during hemispheric cooling periods. Most importantly, however, the signal in Bermuda appears more closely correlated with proxy-based evidence for subtle AMOC reductions than NAO phasing.

  7. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  8. Exploring the interannual variability of extreme wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izaguirre, Cristina; Menéndez, Melisa; Camus, Paula; Méndez, Fernando J.; Mínguez, Roberto; Losada, Inigo J.

    2012-12-01

    The extreme wave climate is of paramount importance for: (i) off-shore and coastal engineering design, (ii) ship design and maritime transportation, or (iii) analysis of coastal processes. Identifying the synoptic patterns that produce extreme waves is necessary to understand the wave climate for a specific location. Thus, a characterization of these weather patterns may allow the study of the relationships between the magnitude and occurrence of extreme wave events and the climate system. The aim of this paper is to analyze the interannual variability of extreme wave heights. For this purpose, we present a methodological framework and its application to an area over the North East (NE) Atlantic Ocean. The climatology in the NE Atlantic is analyzed using the self-organizing maps (SOMs). The application of this clustering technique to monthly mean sea level pressure fields provides a continuum of synoptic categorizations compared with discrete realizations produced through most traditional methods. The extreme wave climate has been analyzed by means of monthly maxima of the significant wave height (SWH) in several locations over the NE Atlantic. A statistical approach based on a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has been applied. The seasonal variation was characterized and, afterwards, the interannual variability was studied throughout regional pressure patterns. The anomalies of the 50-year return level estimates of SWH, due to interannual variability have been projected into the weather types of SOM. It provides a comprehensive visual representation, which relates the weather type with the positive or negative contribution to extreme waves over the selected locations.

  9. Effects of orbital-scale ITCZ fluctuations on the mid Cretaceous tropical Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, P.; Beckmann, B.; Flögel, S.; Wagner, T.

    2009-04-01

    Shifts of the Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on Milankovitch time scales have profound effects on the climate-ocean system of tropical regions. Changes in wind systems, regional hydrology and continental runoff linked to past fluctuations of the ITCZ are well known to have triggered a complex chain of forcing and feedback mechanisms between the regional biosphere and geosphere. In our study we explore these relationships for the mid-Cretaceous super-greenhouse. We present proxy records from two regions of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 959 (West Africa off Ivory Coast) and ODP Site 1261 (Northern South America off Suriname) and compare them with results of GENESIS Atmospheric General Circulation modeling. Our data suggest that bioproductivity in the eastern tropical Atlantic mainly followed a precession controlled cyclic pattern which was closely linked to changes in nutrient and freshwater supply via continental runoff from the African continent. Different from that bioproductivity in the western tropical Atlantic shows a strong obliquity and eccentricity cycle pattern. We propose that these differences in the west were mainly caused by fluctuations in wind-driven upwelling off northern South America with a constant and high supply of nutrients from the continent maintaining the ocean redox system anoxic without interruption. Bioproductivity from wind-driven upwelling in the west would have pushed the water column into repetitive sulfidic conditions (euxinia), as confirmed by geochemical evidence. Overall bioproductivity east and west of the tropical Atlantic was high supporting deposition of extensive black shale deposits. The observed differences in depositional patterns on both sides of the Coniacian tropical Atlantic support that (orbital-driven) fluctuations of the ITCZ were mainly responsible, with strong contrasts in regional moisture distribution over Africa and South America and local strengthening of the trade wind system causing

  10. Climate impacts on multidecadal pCO2 variability in the North Atlantic: 1948-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breeden, Melissa L.; McKinley, Galen A.

    2016-06-01

    The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake in term of units per area. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle, using a regional model forced with realistic climate and preindustrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948-2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Positive AMO is also associated with a significant reduction in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the subpolar gyre, due primarily to reduced vertical mixing; the net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net effect of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

  11. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Climate Impact - Zonal and Meridional Coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Kirillov, Andrey; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  12. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

  13. The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hand, Ralf; Nour-Eddine, Omrani; Keenlyside Noel, S.; Richard, Greatbatch

    2015-04-01

    Here, we present an analysis of North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interaction in a warming climate, based on a long-term coupled general circulation model experiment forced by the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario. In addition to globally strongly increased SSTs as a direct response to the radiative forcing, the model run shows a distinct change of the local sea surface temperature (SST hereafter) pattern in the Gulf Stream region. This includes changes of the SST gradients in the region of the Gulf Stream SST front, likely as a response of the wind-driven part of the oceanic surface circulation. As a consequence of a massive slow-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the northern North Atlantic furthermore shows a much weaker warming than the other oceans. The feedback of these changes on the atmosphere was studied in a set of sensitivity experiments based on the SST climatology of the coupled runs. The set consists of four runs: a control experiment based on the historical run, a run using the full SST from coupled RCP 8.5 run and two runs, where where we deconstructed the SST signal into a homogenous mean warming part and a local SST pattern change. In the region of the precipitation maximum in the historical run the future scenario shows an increase of absolute SSTs, but a a significant decrease in local precipitation. We show evidence that the local response in that region is connected to the (with respect to the historical run) weakened SST gradients rather than to the absolute SST. Consistently, the model shows enhanced precipitation north of this region, where the SST gradients are enhanced. The warming causes a decreased low-level convergence and upward motion in the region with reduced SST gradient. However, the signal restricts to the low and mid-troposphere and does not reach the higher model levels. There is little evidence for a large-scale response to the SST pattern changes in the Gulf Stream region

  14. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  15. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  16. Wave power variability and trends across the North Atlantic influenced by decadal climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bromirski, Peter D.; Cayan, Daniel R.

    2015-05-01

    Climate variations influence North Atlantic winter storm intensity and resultant variations in wave energy levels. A 60 year hindcast allows investigation of the influence of decadal climate variability on long-term trends of North Atlantic wave power, PW, spanning the 1948-2008 epoch. PW variations over much of the eastern North Atlantic are strongly influenced by the fluctuating North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric circulation pattern, consistent with previous studies of significant wave height, Hs. Wave activity in the western Atlantic also responds to fluctuations in Pacific climate modes, including the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The magnitude of upward long-term trends during winter over the northeast Atlantic is strongly influenced by heightened storm activity under the extreme positive phase of winter NAO in the early 1990s. In contrast, PW along the United States East Coast shows no increasing trend, with wave activity there most closely associated with the PNA. Strong wave power "events" exhibit significant upward trends along the Atlantic coasts of Iceland and Europe during winter months. Importantly, in opposition to the long-term increase of PW, a recent general decrease in PW across the North Atlantic from 2000 to 2008 occurred. The 2000-2008 decrease was associated with a general shift of winter NAO to its negative phase, underscoring the control exerted by fluctuating North Atlantic atmospheric circulation on PW trends.

  17. European warming linked to Greenland melting during the Last Interglacial North Atlantic climate optimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez Goni, M.; Michel, E.; Desprat, S.; Carlson, A. E.; Naughton, F.; Fletcher, W. J.; Rossignol, L.

    2010-12-01

    Recent models and data synthesis suggest that the Last Interglacial North Atlantic warm optimum, ~130 ±2 ka, corresponded with a sea level stand of 4-9 m higher than that of the present-day implying that a substantial part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melted at that time. This makes this interglacial a good analogue for understanding the impact of the ongoing global warming and GIS melting on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and adjacent landmasses. Here we provide new insights on the impact of insolation and AMOC changes on western European ecosystems and climate and their regional transmission during an episode of GIS melting that can be considered somehow similar to that predicted for 2100 C.E. from IPCC projections. We have revisited three pollen-rich western European margin sequences distributed from 37 to 45°N, MD04-2845, MD95-2042 and MD99-2331, which span all of MIS 5 and are directly affected by the descending branch of the North Atlantic Drift. The analysis of these sequences allows us to directly correlate marine tracers of AMOC variability and changes in ice volume, sea surface temperature (SST), iceberg discharges and pollen-derived European vegetation and climate. The comparison of these observations with those inferred from other locations in the North Atlantic region directly affected by the AMOC and records from the Eirik Drift off southern Greenland document the response of North Atlantic climate to GIS melting during the Last Interglacial. Large and rapid increase in the Western European forest cover and mid-latitude North Atlantic SST at the beginning of MIS 5e benthic isotopic plateau following the YD-like event coincide with strong GIS melting. Despite continued GIS melting during this interval, AMOC strength gradually increases. The dramatic expansion of western European forest could be the result of both AMOC and insolation increase. Subsequently sustained warm SSTs and strong AMOC do not preclude the long term

  18. Southern Ocean forcing of the North Atlantic at multi-centennial time scales in the Kiel Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Torge; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2015-04-01

    Internal multi-centennial variability of open ocean deep convection in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean impacts the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Kiel Climate Model. The northward extent of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) strongly depends on the state of Weddell Sea deep convection. The retreat of AABW results in an enhanced meridional density gradient that drives an increase in the strength and vertical extent of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) cell. This shows, for instance, as a peak in AMOC strength at 30°N about a century after Weddell Sea deep convection has ceased. The stronger southward flow of NADW is compensated by an expansion of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and an acceleration of the North Atlantic Current, indicating greater deep water formation. Contractions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre enable warm water anomalies, which evolved in response to deep convection events in the Southern Ocean, to penetrate farther to the north, eventually weakening the AMOC and closing a quasi-centennial cycle. Gyre contractions are accompanied by increases in sea level of up to 20 cm/century in some areas of the North Atlantic. In the Southern Ocean itself, the heat loss during the convective regime results in a sea surface height decrease on the order of 10 cm/century, with a maximum of 30 cm/century in the Weddell Sea. Hence, the impact of the Southern Ocean Centennial Variability (SOCV) on regional as well as North Atlantic sea level is of the same order of magnitude as the rise of global average sea level during the 20th century, which amounts to about 15-20 cm. This suggests that internal variability on a centennial time scale cannot be neglected a priori in assessments of 20th and 21st century AMOC and regional sea level change.

  19. Global scale climate trends associated with variable Atlantic thermohaline transport as inferred from changes in intense hurricane activity

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, W.M.; Sheaffer, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents a review of the most recent 100 years of data of hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic, and proposes that decadal variations of hurricane activity are but one of a host of observed concurrent global climate trends which may all link to multi-decadal scale variations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The data reviews shows that long term multi-decadal variations in hurricane activity appear to be linked (1) to mode-like variations of regional and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (2) to concurrent trends in global air temperature, pressure anomalies, and atmospheric circulations. Many of these effects extend well beyond the tropical Atlantic. The pre-eminent effect which seems to dominate all others as a unifying process for these multi-decadal changes is variations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A synthesis process is suggested for specifying physically consistent global interactions linking the Atlantic conveyor and decadal trend associations in global climate data. In this way, some of the global data may yield factors which are useful for forecasting the onset and termination of new decadal trends of hurricane activity. 30 refs., 4 figs.

  20. The impact of mean state errors on equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Wahl, Sebastian

    2015-02-01

    Observations show that the Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode (ZM) obeys similar physics to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. This implies the ZM may be predictable on seasonal timescales, but models demonstrate little prediction skill in this region. In this study using different configurations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) exhibiting different levels of systematic error, we show that a reasonable simulation of the ZM depends on realistic representation of the mean state, i.e., surface easterlies along the equator, upward sloping thermocline to the east, with an equatorial SST cold tongue in the east. We further attribute the differences in interannual variability among the simulations to the individual components of the positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. Differences in the seasonality of the variability are similarly related to the impact of seasonal biases on the Bjerknes feedback. Our results suggest that model physics must be enhanced to enable skillful seasonal predictions in the Tropical Atlantic Sector, although some improvement with regard to the simulation of Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability may be achieved by momentum flux correction. This pertains especially to the seasonal phase locking of interannual SST variability.

  1. Rapid Climate Change Over The North Atlantic In A Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, N.

    An episode of rapid climate change is observed in a 300-year control integration of the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model [CSM; Boville and Gent (1998), Journal of Climate, 11, 1115-1130 and articles in the same edition]. The changes are associated with the formation of sea ice over the Labrador sea and expansion into the North Atlantic south of Greenland. The sea ice expan- sion begins approximately 110 years into the simulation, and is accompanied by ma- jor changes in regional climate and more modest changes in the far field. Over the Labrador Sea winter surface temperature decline more than 10C in 8 years with total decreases of up to 15C. Over Greenland winter temperatures decrease by approxi- mately 6C, over the British Isles by 1C and over Northern Europe by approximately 0.75C. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced but are particularly clear (in- creases) over the British Isles. The cooling is also marked by changes in the winter circulation over the western North Atlantic, where sea level pressure rises of more than 10 hPa occurred markedly change the configuration of the Icelandic Low. Be- yond northern Europe associated climate changes are in some cases detectable but muted. The climate system recovers after approximately 90 years and over a period of about 10 years returns to a state similar to that of the initial 100 years. The causes of the rapid appearance of ice have not year been investigated, however summer SSTs in the Labrador Sea are cooling in the years prior to the appearance of winter sea ice suggesting that changes in ocean circulation may be involved. The rapid expansion of the sea ice once it began to appear suggests some degree of local positive feedback, possibly due to the lack of recovery of summer SSTs after the sea- sonal melting. The simulated climate shift shares features similar to those seen in the cooling episode of 8.2 kyrs ago [Alley, R.B. et al (1997), Geology, 25, 483-486; Von

  2. Impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability on Arctic Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, S.; Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L.

    2009-12-01

    Observations show a rapid decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness, and a rapid warming in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT) in the past decade. Recent observational studies confirm the amplification of SAT anomalies over the Arctic region, as previously suggested by several modeling studies. While climate model projections clearly show that increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases lead to a warming trend over the Arctic, a recent study finds multidecadal variations of Arctic climate that are strongly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMOC is often thought to be a major source of decadal/multidecadal variability in the climate system, and contributes to the observed AMO. The focus of this study is to evaluate the role of low frequency AMOC variability on Arctic climate in a 1000 years control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 coupled climate model. Simulated Arctic sea-ice extent anomaly is found to be highly anti-correlated with Arctic SAT anomaly, similar to observations. The coupled climate model also simulates the amplification of Arctic SAT anomalies by a factor of 4 of global SAT anomalies. A strong correlation is also found between the simulated AMO and Arctic SAT and sea-ice extent anomalies on decadal time-scales. The AMO is mainly induced by low frequency AMOC variations in the control simulation. Spatially, the AMO demonstrates the largest influence on the Bering, Labrador and Nordic Seas sea-ice concentration anomalies, similar to the observed spatial pattern of the Arctic sea-ice declining trend since 1979. Both observations and climate model simulations suggest a strong role of AMOC on decadal Arctic climate variability. Our model results suggest that the intensifying AMOC, in addition to anthropogenic greenhouse gases induced global warming, might have also contributed to the recent decline in Arctic sea-ice.

  3. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (mesoscale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in the course of the 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar and/or volcanic eruptions).

  4. Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

    2015-10-01

    The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 turbidites, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The deposit thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of these events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

  5. Evidence for multiple drivers of North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability using CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terray, L.

    2012-12-01

    Observed North Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures have changed in a non-monotonic and non-uniform fashion over the last century. While future North Atlantic decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change will be driven by a combination of internal variability and anthropogenic as well as natural forcings, the relative importance of these effects is still unclear for the 20th century [Ting et al., 2009; Knight 2009; Ottera et al. 2010; DelSole et al., 2011; Booth et al. 2012]. Here we assess the relative roles of greenhouses gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcings and internal variability to the North Atlantic surface temperature decadal fluctuations using CMIP5 multi-model historical simulations driven by estimates of observed external forcings. While the latter are the main source of decadal variability in the tropics and subtropics, there is a large contribution from the unforced component to subpolar Atlantic variations. Reconstruction of forced response patterns suggests that anthropogenic forcings are the main causes of the accelerated warming of the last three decades while internal variability has a dominant contribution to the early 20th-century temperature multi-decadal swings and recent abrupt changes in the subpolar Atlantic. Significant inter-model spread with regard to the spatial response patterns to anthropogenic forcing leads to substantial uncertainty as to robust attribution statements for the mid-to-late 20th century North Atlantic warm and cold periods. Comparing internal variability from preindustrial simulations with that estimated from the observed residual after removing the best estimate of the total forced response leads to a consistency metric which allows to identify models with a biased forced response.; CMIP5 multi-model ratio (ρ_LF) of the externally forced -natural and anthropogenic- variance, σ_EF to the total variance, σ_T, of fluctuations with a period greater than 10 years. Stippling indicates regions where the null

  6. The influence of solar variability past, present and future, on North Atlantic climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunstone, Nick; Scaife, Adam; Ineson, Sarah; Gray, Lesley; Knight, Jeff; Lockwood, Mike; Maycock, Amanda

    2014-05-01

    There has long existed observational evidence for a link between solar activity (both the semi-regular 11-yr cycle and longer term variability) and regional climate variability. In the last few years progress is starting to be made in understanding such observational correlations from physical mechanistic viewpoint. Firstly, new observations of solar spectral irradiance from the SORCE satellite have raised the possibility of much larger variability in the UV than previously appreciated. Secondly, state of the art computer climate models now explicitly resolve the Earth's stratosphere allowing the influence of solar variability to be simulated here. By driving such climate models with the larger solar UV variability implied by the latest satellite observations, surface climate impacts have been shown in the Northern Hemisphere winter that are consistent with late 20th century climate data. Low solar activity is associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hence colder winters over northern Europe and the USA. We discuss the implications for seasonal/decadal climate prediction. Further work has examined the role of ocean feedbacks in amplifying this tropospheric response. There is robust statistical evidence that such a feedback operates in the observations and gives a lag of 3-4 years for the maximum tropospheric response after the maximum solar forcing. This lag does not generally appear to be reproduced by current climate models. We discuss how this observational evidence may be a valuable way of assessing the relative strength of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the present generation of climate models. The prolonged solar minimum during the transition between solar cycles 23 & 24, combined with the relatively low maximum activity of cycle 24, have increased suggestions that we may be coming to the end of the grand solar maximum which dominated the 20th century. A return to Maunder Minimum like solar activity is therefore a possible

  7. A simple coupled model of tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard; Miller, Jennifer; Chiang, John C. H.

    2002-12-01

    A linear, zonally averaged model of the interaction between the tropical Atlantic (TA) atmosphere and ocean is presented. A balance between evaporation and meridional heat advection in the mixed layer determines the sea surface temperature tendency. The atmosphere is a fixed-depth, sub-cloud layer in which the specific humidity anomaly is determined by a steady-state balance between evaporation, meridional advection, and a parameterized humidity exchange with the free atmosphere. When the model is integrated, forced with observed surface wind anomalies from 1965 to the present, its simulation of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is realistic and comparable to a simulation with a full ocean GCM. A statistical representation of surface winds and their relationship to the SST gradient across the equator is used to formulate and test a coupled model of their regional variability. Forced on both sides of the equator, in the trade-wind regions, with ``white-noise'' windspeed perturbations, the SST-wind relationship in the near-equatorial region feeds back positively on existing SST anomalies and gives rise to decadal variability.

  8. Mid-Cretaceous cooling in the North and South Atlantic: Climate instability and marine biotic crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mcanena, A.; Wagner, T.; Herrle, J. O.; Talbot, H. M.; Hofmann, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    New evidence from both the North and South Atlantic suggests that during the Late Aptian, significant periods of global cooling associated with short-term climate instability resulted in a severe biotic crisis affecting nannofossils, foraminifera and reef builders. We observe Late Aptian long term cooling at the Mazagan Plateau (DSDP Site 545) over a period of 1.5 million years characterised by decreasing sea surface temperatures from ~32.5 to ~27.5°C (based on TEX86 estimates) and a long term positive isotope excursion (1‰ to 2.5‰). Cooling is concurrent to a dramatic decrease in the abundance of Nannoconus spp. and planktic foraminifera at Site 545 and also a dramatic decline of reef builders in the Caribbean and Western Tethys region. We note a number of short term temperature and carbon excursions including several hyperthermal events superimposed on the long term cooling. We associate the trigger of the observed climate shifts in the western North Atlantic to both increased global carbon burial and fluctuations in the flow of warm Tethyan waters through the Proto-Gibraltar Strait. Preliminary data from DSDP Site 511 (Falkland Plateau) also reveal a Late Aptian decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 4°C (ranging ~31 to 27°C) associated with a positive organic carbon isotope excursion (-24 to -22 ‰) and a concurrent extinction of planktic foraminifera. We conclude that Late Aptian cooling was a global phenomenon linked to increased global carbon burial with superimposed regional forcing mechanisms. The new data from Site 545 and 511 support a causal connection between cooling and biotic crises, although the role of short-term climate instability remains to be explored further.

  9. How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

  10. Uncertainties in freshwater and MOC predictions in the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, T.; Latif, M.; Reintges, A.

    2012-04-01

    Future changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) will result from processes both internal and external to the climate system. Global warming leads to an amplified hydrological cycle, which affects the vertical salinity and temperature profiles. The meridional changes in the ocean-atmosphere interaction diminish the meridional oceanic density contrast. In the North Atlantic sinking regions, these changes are strongly related to salinity anomalies at the surface. Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) during the twenty-first century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. However, large uncertainty exists in comparing different climate model predictions, even under identical forcing. Individual studies suggest that multidecadal changes in the MOC are strongly related to large-scale salinity anomalies and therefore probably to changes in the surface freshwater fluxes and freshwater transport. We derived the general relationship between the MOC and freshwater budget of the Northern Hemisphere analyzing the CMIP3 20th century simulations and the A1B scenario prediction. A quantification of the different sources of uncertainty (external, internal and model uncertainties) indicates the model error as the largest component. The internal variability is significant during the first decades, while scenario uncertainty is almost negligible. The different contributions to model uncertainty like surface wind and density, salinity versus temperature has been analyzed additionally. Overall, the strongest MOC changes have been predicted in the models around 40°N, whereas the strongest signal-to-noise ratio is located south of 40°N. Uncertainties in meridional ocean density profiles are dominated by model uncertainties in the salinity distribution. The local signal-to-noise ratio of the ocean freshwater flux is low in the arctic and subpolar region. First analyses of

  11. A link between North Atlantic cooling and dry events in the core SW monsoon region in Lonar Lake, central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, Philip; Gaye, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Plessen, Birgit; Stebich, Martina; Anoop, Ambili; Riedel, Nils; Basavaiah, Nathani

    2014-05-01

    A sediment core from Lonar Lake in central India covers the complete Holocene and was used to reconstruct the monsoon history of the core SW-monsoon region. We compare C/N ratios, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, grain size, as well as amino acid derived degradation proxies with climatically sensitive proxies of other records from South Asia and the North Atlantic region. The comparison reveals some more or less contemporaneous climate shifts. At Lonar Lake, a general long term climate transition from wet conditions during the early Holocene to drier conditions during the late Holocene, delineating the insolation curve, can be reconstructed. Several phases of shorter term climate alteration that superimpose the general climate trend correlate with cold phases in the North Atlantic region. The most pronounced climate deteriorations indicated by our data occurred between 6.2 - 5.2, 4.65 - 3.9, and 2.05 - 0.55 cal ka BP. The strong dry phase between 4.65 - 3.9 cal ka BP at Lonar Lake corroborates the hypothesis that severe climate deterioration contributed to the decline of the Indus Civilisation about 3.9 ka BP.

  12. Land use and environmental assessment in the central Atlantic region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, R. H.; Fitzpatrick, K.; Lins, H. F., Jr.; Mcginty, H. K., III

    1975-01-01

    Data from high altitude aircraft, LANDSAT and Skylab were used in a comprehensive regional survey of land use and its associated environmental impact in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). Each sensor system has advantages that were demonstrated by producing experimental land use maps and other data products, applying them to typical problems encountered in regional planning and environmental impact assessment, and presenting the results to prospective users for evaluation. An archival collection of imagery, maps, data summaries, and technical reports was assembled, constituting an environmental profile of the central Atlantic region. The investigation was organized into four closely-related modules, a land use information module, an environmental impact module, a user interaction and evaluation module, and a geographic information systems module. Results revealed a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs, tending, however, definitely toward the higher-resolution sensor data and the larger-scale land use maps and related information products. Among project recommendations are greater efforts toward improving compatibility of federal, state, and local land use information programs, and greater efforts toward a broader exchange of imagery, computer tapes, and land use information derived therefrom.

  13. Particulate Matter Pollution and its Regional Transport in the Mid-Atlantic States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Goldberg, D. L.; Hembeck, L.; Canty, T. P.; Vinciguerra, T.; Ring, A.; Salawitch, R. J.; Dickerson, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes negative effects on human health, impair visibility in scenic areas, and affect regional/global climate. PM can be formed through chemical changes of precursors, including biogenic VOCs and anthropogenic SO2 and NOx often from fossil fuel combustion. In the past decades, PM pollution in the US has improved substantially. However, some areas in the Mid-Atlantic States are still designated as 'moderate' nonattainment by EPA. We utilize datasets obtained during the NASA 2011 DISCOVER-AQ campaign to characterize the composition and distribution of summertime PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States. Aircraft measurements and OMI satellite retrieval of major anthropogenic precursors (NO2 and SO2) are analyzed to investigate the regional transport of PM precursors from upwind sources. We compare PM concentration and chemical composition observed during the field campaign to CMAQ simulations with the latest EPA emission inventory. Specifically, we focus on the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry in CMAQ simulations using various biogenic VOCs estimates from the MEGAN and BEIS models. Airborne PM observations including PILS measurements from DISCOVER-AQ campaign and OMI retrievals of HCHO are also used to validate and improve the representation of SOA chemistry and PM pollution within CMAQ. The comparison reveals the source and evolution of PM pollution in the Mid-Atlantic States.

  14. The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delworth, Thomas L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Rong

    2016-07-01

    Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, large-scale warming and increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.

  15. Millennial-scale climate instabilities in the subtropical Atlantic during MIS 6 and 7

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheinwald, A.; Billups, K.

    2012-12-01

    We have constructed a high resolution (~200 year) planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope record spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6 and 7 in the subtropical Atlantic (ODP Site 1059). The record fills a gap in a ~1 million year long time series of millennial-scale surface ocean hydrography in this region. Our ultimate goal is to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale climate signals in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic are linked to external driving factors such as the harmonics of precession. Results show that longer-term trends in the oxygen isotope data spanning MIS 6-7 closely follow precessional forcing allowing us to refine the original age model of Grützner et al. (2002). High frequency variations are superimposed on the long-term trend during both the glacial MIS 6 and the interglacial MIS 7. Spectral analyses indicate high concentration of power at millennial-scale periodicities of 10.9 kyr, 5.2 kyr, and 2.8 kyr. These periodicities are close to those expected from harmonics of precessional forcing during this interval of time (11.5 kyr, 5.8 kyr, 2.8 kyr). We will show the evolution of the millennial-scale periodicities in this region over the past 1 million years by splicing the record into published ones and unifying the age model.

  16. Imprint of Late Quaternary Climate Change on the Mid-Atlantic Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavich, M.; Markewich, H.; Newell, W. L.; Litwin, R.; Smoot, J.; Brook, G.

    2009-12-01

    Recent geomorphic, lithostratigraphic, palynologic and chronostratigraphic investigations of the mid-Atlantic region show that much of the modern landscape flanking the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River is developed on late Quaternary sediments. These deposits, dated by OSL and 14C, include transgressive marine and estuarine sediments deposited between 120ka and 32ka, and parabolic dunes formed between 32ka and 15ka. The stacked estuarine units were deposited in a subsiding basin as eustatic sea level fell from +7m to -60m. The estuarine units contain pollen that provides evidence for millennial scale climate fluctuations. The dunes formed during the period of rapid expansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet as sea level fell to -120m. Permafrost features such as frost wedges and periglacial “pots” formed during cold intervals associated with marine oxygen isotope stages 4 and 2. This periglacial climate, along with glacioisostatic adjustments to growth and decay of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, affected landscape processes at least as far south as the Potomac River valley. While many of these features were recognized in earlier mapping and stratigraphic investigations, OSL dating has greatly extended the range of available dates and significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of highly variable periglacial climate on this region.

  17. Pliocene planktic foraminifer census data from the North Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    PRISM Project Members

    1996-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a long-term study of the climatic and oceanographic conditions of the Pliocene known as PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping). One of the major elements of the study involves the use of quantitative composition of planktic foraminifer assemblages to estimate seasurface temperatures and identify major oceanographic boundaries and water masses (Dowsett, 1991; Dowsett and Poore, 1991; Dowsett et al., 1992; Dowsett et al., 1994). We have analyzed more than 900 samples from 19 core sites in the North Atlantic Basin (Fig. 1) resulting in a large volume of raw census data. These data are presented here together to facilitate comparison of North Atlantic faunal assemblages. Latitude, longitude, water depth, source of faunal data and source of data used to construct age model (or publication from which age model was taken) are provided for each locality in Table 1. All ages refer to the geomagnetic polarity time scale of Berggren et al. (1985). Counts of species tabulated in each sample are given in Tables 2-20. DSDP and ODP sample designations are abbreviated in Tables 2-20 as core-section, depth within section in centimeters (eg. 10-5, 34 = core 10, section 5, 34 cm below top of section 5).

  18. Understanding long-term (1982-2013) multi-decadal change in the equatorial and subtropical South Atlantic climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

    2016-04-01

    High-resolution observations along with atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are diagnosed to understand how and why southeastern Atlantic SSTs have changed over the 1982-2013 period. Multiple datasets are used to evaluate confidence. Results indicate significant SST warming trends (0.5-1.5 K per 32-years) along the Guinean and Angolan/Namibian Coasts, and a cooling trend (-0.10 to -0.60 K per 32-years) over the subtropical South Atlantic between 18°S and 28°S. SST trends are shown to vary over the annual cycle with the greatest changes occurring during November-January. Analysis of the ocean surface heat balance reveals that the austral summer SST warming trend along the Angolan/Namibian Coast is associated with an increase in the net downward atmospheric heat flux. In addition, there is a decrease in coastal upwelling due to circulation changes related to a poleward shift of the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and an intensification of the southwestern African thermal low. The cooling trend over the subtropical South Atlantic is also associated with the poleward shift of the South Atlantic anticyclone, as stronger surface winds enhance latent heat loss from the ocean over this region. Positive SST trends along the Guinean coast are found to be primarily associated with changes internal to the ocean, specifically, reduced coastal upwelling, diffusion, and enhanced horizontal transport of warmer water. These results highlight the need to better understand South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and the continental thermal low interactions and their implications for present day climate variability and future climate change.

  19. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  20. Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemming, Sidney R.

    2004-03-01

    Millennial climate oscillations of the glacial interval are interrupted by extreme events, the so-called Heinrich events of the North Atlantic. Their near-global footprint is a testament to coherent interactions among Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere on millennial timescales. Heinrich detritus appears to have been derived from the region around Hudson Strait. It was deposited over approximately 500 ± 250 years. Several mechanisms have been proposed for the origin of the layers: binge-purge cycle of the Laurentide ice sheet, jökulhlaup activity from a Hudson Bay lake, and an ice shelf buildup/collapse fed by Hudson Strait. To determine the origin of the Heinrich events, I recommend (1) further studies of the timing and duration of the events, (2) further sedimentology study near the Hudson Strait, and (3) greater spatial and temporal resolution studies of the layers as well as their precursory intervals. Studies of previous glacial intervals may also provide important constraints.

  1. Stability Behaviour of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Under Different Climate Conditions: The Thermal Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Eichinger, R.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.

    2010-05-01

    During the Last Glacial Maximum the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) was characterized by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW- overturning cell, compared to the present mode of operation. Furthermore, abrupt climate events during the last glacial are associated with rapid changes in the THC and accompanying changes of the inter-hemispheric northward oceanic heat transport. Using an interhemispheric box model of the Atlantic THC, coupled to a moist energy balance model of the atmosphere we present a new approach, which is based on the assumption that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic would inhibit the generation of deep water. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. The transition from the present day climate to a colder climate forces the Atlantic THC to collapse in an intermediate climate state. This change in the stability behaviour is a consequence of the model response to gradual changes in the outgoing infra-red radiation at the top of the atmosphere. At cooler climate states the increasing atmosphere-ocean temperature contrast and associated ocean heat loss dominates the insulating effect of sea ice on North Atlantic temperature and promotes a sea ice growth. This effect is amplified by a weaker overturning circulation and decreased northward oceanic heat transport, which leads to a positive feedback loop and the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. Based on the reduction of the system to key variables governing the stability, we will also discuss the internal and structural stability of the system with the aid of numerical and analytical solutions to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics. A comparison with

  2. Using Pacific and Atlantic Ocean Climate Variability for Improving Streamflow Estimates in the Rio Grande River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2013-12-01

    Over the years, hydrologist and climatologist have been engaged in developing relationship between oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and hydroclimatology within a region. Several modes of oceanic-atmospheric climate phenomena are available that have periodicity ranging from annual-to decadal-to multidecadal and can provide predictive information that can be used to improve forecast lead time of hydrologic variables. The most commonly understood and studied oceanic-atmospheric oscillations representing the variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Although, these climate patterns are indicative of SST variability, spatial bias is introduced as these oscillations represent specific predetermined regions. The exploitation of entire Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST eliminates the ocean or region specific bias impacting the hydroclimatology. With this motivation, we propose a time lagged analyses between the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500) values with spring-summer streamflow volume for improving the forecast lead time. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) statistical technique is used to identify coupled regions of SST/Z500 and six unimpaired streamflow gages in Rio Grande River Basin, located in the western United States, for a 63-year period (1949-2011). The significant SST/ Z500 regions are utilized as predictors in non-parametric model to develop continuous exceedance probability forecasts for 3-6 months lead times. The SST/Z500 1st mode temporal expansion series explained 90% of the variability in streamflow. Additionally, the results indicated improved streamflow forecasts using only significant SST/Z500 regions compared to using predefine climate indices. The improved skill found over basic climatology forecasts will be useful to water managers when trying to predict and manage expected streamflow volumes

  3. Cooling Induced Instability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation as a Cause for Rapid Climate Transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.; Laepple, T.

    2009-04-01

    Although there is considerable debate about differences between the modern and the glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) it is commonly agreed that at peak glacial times the AMOC was characterised by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW-cell. Recently the Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP) has shown that state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models can successfully reproduce such changes. Interestingly, the AMOC response to glacial conditions in the PMIP has revealed that a southward shift of the downward branch and a shoaling of the NADW overturning cell is accompanied by a reduced overturning. Here we present a conceptual approach using an interhemipheric box model of the Atlantic overturning circulation. We assume that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic box would inhibit the formation of NADW by its insulating effect of surface heat fluxes at the ocean surface. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. Using this concept we show that the transition from a modern climate state to a colder climate forces the system into millennial-scale oscillations at a threshold. The oscillations are activated by a southward migration of the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The southward migration of the sea ice margin also provides a positive feedback on a weakening of the overturning by climate cooling, which leads to the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. The stability behaviour in our model suggests that changes in the North Atlantic sea-ice cover may have played a dominant role for Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations by determining the available surface area for deep water formation and the

  4. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Henderson, Naomi; Kim, Daehyun; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  5. Interannual to decadal predictability in the North Atlantic Europe region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouzeau, A.; Terray, L.

    2003-04-01

    A 200-year control experiment is performed with the third version of the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric model coupled to the ORCALIM2 (ORCA/Louvain Ice Model) sea-ice/ocean model. This study takes place in the framework of the PREDICATE project. The simulation shows low frequency fluctuations (period of 30-50 years) in the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) of about 15% of the mean transport. Two 25-year long ensemble experiments are then conducted, contrasting opposite phases of the THC: the first ensemble starts at a maximum of the intensity of the THC, the second one at a minimum. For each ensemble, the different members (6 members for each ensemble) only differ by infinitesimal perturbations of their initial atmospheric conditions. We use these ensembles to study the potential predictability at interannual to decadal time scales. The preliminary results suggest the existence of predictability up to several years in the THC and SST in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, there seems to be very little predictability (beyond one year) arising from atmospheric variables. These results are obtained using a simple predictability index introduced by Collins and Allen (2001) which measures the rate of spread of the ensembles of simulations against climatology. A cluster analysis will then be performed to investigate the modification of the frequency of occurrence of the main climatic regimes and their links with the THC states.

  6. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  7. North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Climate Change in Pliocene Simulations Using the GISS ModelE2-R GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J.; Kelley, M.; Rind, D.

    2013-12-01

    As part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2, twelve research groups simulated the middle Pliocene climate using fully coupled versions of their ocean-atmosphere GCMs. Under the conditions prescribed by PlioMIP Experiment 2 (especially 25 meters of sea level rise, 405 ppm CO2, and reduced ice sheets) most coupled GCMs still underestimate ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean regions. The GISS ModelE (AR5-version) originally produced the coolest results in these regions out of all the Pliocene simulations, with a greatly decreased AMOC and colder temperatures than modern in a large portion of the North Atlantic. However, improvements in the formulation of mesoscale mixing in the GISS ModelE, which have been incorporated in a more recent model update, led to significant changes in the simulation of the Pliocene (Chandler et al., 2013), including a warmer North Atlantic ocean, decreased Arctic sea ice, increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) relative to the control run, and generally a more favorable comparison to proxy data. Despite these results, the relative role of the various forcings and the numerous boundary condition changes was not analyzed. Zhang et al. (2013) did show that the increase in ocean heat transport is small compared to the change in the AMOC and was not likely to be the direct cause of the North Atlantic warming. Furthermore, using a subset of the PlioMIP models they showed that the role of ocean heat flux in the models, in general, is not strongly correlated to either the strengthening of the Pliocene AMOC or the warming of the North Atlantic. We have now run a series of sensitivity tests with the newer version of the GISS model and will discuss the relative effects of Pliocene CO2, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica separately), orbit, vegetation and the change in the mesoscale mixing parameterization as a means of better understanding the role of various factors that

  8. Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilova, N.

    2010-09-01

    The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

  9. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  10. Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Wu, Xingren; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Lu, Jian; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kinter, James L., III

    2015-01-01

    There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability.

  11. On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servain, Jacques; Arnault, Sabine

    1995-09-01

    Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964-1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful to Prof. A. K. Sen of the Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, University of Calcutta for valuable discussions. One of

  12. Passive margin uplift around the North Atlantic region and its role in Northern Hemisphere late Cenozoic glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyles, Nicholas

    1996-02-01

    Tectonic-climatic models of late Cenozoic global cooling emphasize the importance of middle latitude uplifts (e.g., Tibetan Plateau and the American west) but ignore widespread tectonic events on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean. Pleistocene glaciations, after 2.5 Ma, are characterized by circum North Atlantic continental ice sheets that formed by the coalescence of perennial snow fields on extensive plateau surfaces in eastern Canada, northwest Britain, and Scandinavia. Plateaus record Cenozoic uplift of peneplains in response to semisynchronous magmatic underplating and thermal buoyancy of rifted continental margins. High-standing plateaus are very sensitive to small reductions in summer temperature. As late Cenozoic climate cooling proceeded, driven by uplift in regions external to the North Atlantic region, elevated plateaus became sites for extensive snow fields and ultimately ice sheets. Circum-Atlantic uplift took place in the key latitudinal belt that is most sensitive to orbitally forced changes in solar irradiation; this, together with albedo effects from large snow fields, could have amplified the relatively weak Milankovitch signal.

  13. Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaugrand, Grégory

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is unambiguous and its effects are clearly detected in all functional units of the Earth system. This study presents new analyses of sea-surface temperature changes and show that climate change is affecting ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Changes are seen from phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish and are modifying the dominance of species and the structure, the diversity and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Changes also range from phenological to biogeographical shifts and have involved in some regions of the Atlantic abrupt ecosystem shifts. These alterations reflect a response of pelagic ecosystems to a warmer temperature regime. Mechanisms are complex because they are nonlinear exhibiting tipping points and varying in space and time. Sensitivity of organisms to temperature changes is high, implicating that a small temperature modification can have sustained ecosystem effects. Implications of these changes for biogeochemical cycles are discussed. Two observed changes detected in the North Sea that could have opposite effects on carbon cycle are discussed. Increase in phytoplankton, as inferred from the phytoplankton colour index derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, has been detected in the North Sea. This pattern has been accompanied by a reduction in the abundance of the herbivorous species Calanus finmarchicus. This might have reduced the grazing pressure and increase diatomaceous 'fluff', therefore carbon export in the North Sea. Therefore, it could be argued that the biological carbon pump might increase in this region with sea warming. In the meantime, however, the mean size of organisms (calanoid copepods) has dropped. Such changes have implications for the turnover time of biogenic carbon in plankton organisms and the mean residence time of particulate carbon they produce. The system characterising the warmer period is more based on recycling and less on export. The increase in the minimum turnover time

  14. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  15. Impact of fluctuation of hydro-physical regime in the North Atlantic on the climate of Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2015-04-01

    In the mid-1970s a heat content in the North Atlantic Ocean has substantially changed. Because of its high energy value the event appears to have a significant impact on the regional environment. To verify this suggestion we analyzed the global ocean-atmosphere data related to the negative (1950-1970) and positive (1980-1999) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The analysis of these data have shown the existence of a thermal dipole in the North Atlantic upper layer which can be interpreted in a sense as an oceanic counterpart of atmospheric NAO. To identify this North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) its index was considered as the ocean 0-100-m layer temperature difference between regions (20°-40°N; 80°-30°W) and (50°-70°N; 60°-10°W). Then the NAD index was suggested a possible physical mechanism factor of the regional ocean-atmosphere system variability which in turn could produce a draw effect on the recent climate of Eurasia. The study showed that the current phase (2000-2013) of the climate in the North Atlantic region becomes qualitatively similar to the situation, typical for period 1950-1970, when the index of continentality in the Eurasian region was a very high. There is a reason to believe that in the coming decades this index is likely to increase, that would be primarily manifested by relatively cold weather in winters and by hot-dry summer seasons. To assess the variability of ocean heat content it was used a General Ocean Circulation model developed at the Institute of numerical mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences. This model belongs to the class of σ-models, and its distinguishing feature is the splitting of the physical processes and spatial coordinates. By using the model there were performed numerical experiments for the evolution of hydrophysical regime of the North Atlantic Ocean at the period of 1958-2006, with a spatial resolution of 0.25°x0.25° for 25 horizons with time window of 1 hour. As initial conditions for the

  16. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  17. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  18. Impact of freshwater release in the North Atlantic under different climate conditions in an OAGCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Braconnot, Pascale; Mosquet, Eloi; Kageyama, Masa; Alkama, Ramdane

    2010-05-01

    The response of climate to freshwater input in the North Atlantic (NA) has raised a lot of concern about the issue of climate stability since the discovery of abrupt coolings during the last glacial period. Such coolings have usually been related to a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), probably associated with massive iceberg surges or meltwater pulses. Additionally, the recent increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also raised the possibility of a melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which may impact the future AMOC, and thereby the climate. In this study, the extent to which the mean climate influences the freshwater release linked to ice sheet melting in the NA and the associated climatic response is explored. For this purpose the simulations of several climatic states (last interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, preindustrial, and future (2×CO2) are considered, and the climatic response to a freshwater input computed interactively according to a surface heat flux budget over the ice sheets is analyzed. It is shown that the AMOC response is not linear with the freshwater input and depends on the mean climate state. The climatic responses to these different AMOC changes share qualitative similarities for the general picture, notably a cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic and across the Panama Isthmus. The cooling in the Northern Hemisphere is related to the sea ice cover response, which strongly depends on the responses of the atmospheric circulation, the local oceanic heat transport, and the density threshold of the oceanic convection sites. These feedbacks and the magnitude of temperature and precipitation changes outside the North Atlantic depend on the mean climate.

  19. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  20. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  1. Challenges in Modeling Regional Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    Precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff are vital to ecosystems and human activities. Predicting changes in the space-time characteristics of these water cycle processes has been a longstanding challenge in climate modeling. Different modeling approaches have been developed to allow high resolution to be achieved using available computing resources. Although high resolution is necessary to better resolve regional forcing and processes, improvements in simulating water cycle response are difficult to demonstrate and climate models have so far shown irreducible sensitivity to model resolution, dynamical framework, and physics parameterizations that confounds reliable predictions of regional climate change. Additionally, regional climate responds to both regional and global forcing but predicting changes in regional and global forcing such as related to land use/land cover and aerosol requires improved understanding and modeling of the dynamics of human-earth system interactions. Furthermore, regional response and regional forcing may be related through complex interactions that are dependent on the regional climate regimes, making decisions on regional mitigation and adaptation more challenging. Examples of the aforementioned challenges from on-going research and possible future directions will be discussed.

  2. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  3. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual

  4. Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.; Cai, Wenju

    2016-06-01

    Complex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air-sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.

  5. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH, MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA Region 3 to implement a long-term research, monitoring, and assessment program in the Mid-Atlantic region - the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The MAIA mission is to develop a broad-based partnership to integrate scientific knowledge into the decision-making proc...

  6. Use of regional climate models in climate based ecosystem studies

    SciTech Connect

    Hostetler, S.

    1995-09-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) use horizontal grid spacings on the order of tens of kilometers and thus are able to simulate the climate of a limited area at resolutions much higher than can be attained by general circulation models (horizontal scales of several degrees of hundreds of kilometers). The fine mesh of RCMs allows regional scale features that exert forcings on climate (e.g., lakes, mountains, coastlines) to be resolved. As a result, RCM simulations begin to reflect the heterogeneity of climate that supports the spatially diverse distribution of ecosystems in western North American. Examples of model simulations and comparisons with reconstructions of vegetation during the last glacial maximum (21 K CAL) will be presented.

  7. The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

  8. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  9. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  10. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  11. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  12. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  13. Pesticides in surface water of the Mid-Atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ferrari, Matthew J.; Ator, Scott W.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Dysart, Joel E.

    1997-01-01

    Water-quality data from 463 surface-water sites were compiled and analyzed to document the occurrence and distribution of pesticides in surface water of the Mid-Atlantic region as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Those data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from October 1973 through March 1997 were used in the analyses. Data are available for a large part of the Mid-Atlantic region, but large spatial gaps in the data do exist. USGS data bases contained analyses of surface-water samples for 127 pesticide compounds, including 12 degradates, but only 16 of the compounds were commonly detected. Atrazine, metolachlor, simazine, prometon, alachlor, tebuthiuron, cyanazine, diazinon, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, pendimethalin, 2,4-D, dieldrin, DCPA, metribuzin, and desethylatrazine (an atrazine degradate) were detected in more than 100 of the samples analyzed. At least one pesticide was detected in about 75 percent of the samples collected and at more than 90 percent of the sites sampled. Concentrations greater than the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for drinking water of 3 micrograms per liter (ug/L) for atrazine were found in 67 of 2,076 samples analyzed; concentrations greater than the MCL of 2ug/L for alachlor were found in 13 of 1,693 samples analyzed, and concentrations greater than the MCL of 4 ug/L for simazine were found in 17 of 1,995 samples analyzed. Concentrations of four pesticides were greater than Federal Health Advisory levels for drinking water, and concentrations of nine pesticides were greater than Federal Ambient Water-Quality Criteria for the Protection of Aquatic Organisms. Streams draining basins with different land uses tend to have different pesticide detection frequencies and median concentrations. Median concentrations of herbicides tend to be highest in streams draining basins in which the major land use is agriculture, whereas median concentrations of insecticides

  14. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Andy; C. Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F. J.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-06-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe.

  15. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia.

    PubMed

    Baker, Andy; C Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F J; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-01-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe. PMID:26068805

  16. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. PMID:27365315

  17. Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    PubMed

    Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

    2009-04-01

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA. PMID:19342585

  18. A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Andy; C. Hellstrom, John; Kelly, Bryce F. J.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Trouet, Valerie

    2015-01-01

    Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe. PMID:26068805

  19. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  20. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  1. Investigation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate model North Atlantic mode water formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carman, Jessie C.; McClean, Julie L.

    The formation of mode waters in the North Atlantic was examined in the suite of ocean models that comprise the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). We constructed model climatologies for 1980-1999 from the 20th century simulations, and compared their mode water properties (temperature, salinity, formation rate, volume, turnover time, heat content) with data. In these models, we found biases in both the properties of the mode waters and their formation rates. For Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), property biases principally involved salinity errors; additionally, some models form SPMW in an anomalous region west of the British Isles, shifting the source location of waters entering the overturning cell and altering the Nordic Seas' involvement in the Meridional Overturning Circulation. For Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), property biases involved both salinity and temperature errors, while positioning of heat and water fluxes relative to the Gulf Stream and northwest Sargasso Sea influenced STMW formation rate. Deficiencies in STMW formation rate and volume produced a turnover time of 1-2 years, approximately half of that observed; these variations in mode water bulk properties imply variation in ocean heat storage and advection, and hence deficiencies in all the models' abilities to adequately respond to changes in climatic forcing.

  2. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  3. Climatic Forcing of Intense North Atlantic Hurricane Activity over the Last Two Millennia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Toomey, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Hawkes, A. D.; van Henstum, P. J.; Wallace, D. J.; MacDonald, D.

    2013-12-01

    in the strength in the Labrador Current, likely increased tropical cyclone intensities during this time interval. Further, the southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone at this time, possibly related to increasing northern hemisphere ice at the onset of the Little Ice Age, may have led to increased tropical cyclone genesis off the southeastern United States. Given that this variability is observed only in the most intense storms, anti-phasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts is likely not simply a function of changing hurricane tracks. Thus, in addition to climatic forcing of basin wide changes in intense hurricane activity, regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., Loop Current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico and increased Gulf Stream transport along the eastern seaboard of the US), and shifting areas in tropical cyclone genesis likely also have driven variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records over the last two millennia.

  4. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

    PubMed

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-05-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

  5. Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

    2011-01-01

    The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

  6. Climate Change Projections Using Regional Regression Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffis, V. W.; Gyawali, R.; Watkins, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    A typical approach to project climate change impacts on water resources systems is to downscale general circulation model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) outputs as forcing data for a watershed model. With downscaled climate model outputs becoming readily available, multi-model ensemble approaches incorporating mutliple GCMs, multiple emissions scenarios and multiple initializations are increasingly being used. While these multi-model climate ensembles represent a range of plausible futures, different hydrologic models and methods may complicate impact assessment. In particular, associated loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods can markedly increase hydrological modeling uncertainty. Other challenges include properly calibrating and verifying the watershed model and maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to directly predict selected streamflow quantiles from regional regression equations that include physical basin characteristics as well as meteorological variables output by climate models (Fennessey 2011). Two sets of regional regression models are developed for the Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares regression. The regional regression modeling approach is compared with physically based hydrologic modeling approaches for selected Great Lakes watersheds using downscaled outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) as inputs to the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) and the U.S. Army Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS).

  7. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  8. Assessing the Likelihood of Human-Induced-Greenhouse Changes in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlesinger, M.

    2005-12-01

    We have performed several 'hosing' simulations with our coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model wherein we have purposefully added freshwater onto the North Atlantic Ocean between 50°N and 70°N to slowdown and collapse the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATHC). We have found that there is large uncertainty in the future behavior of the ATHC due to uncertainty in how much transport there is by the non-THC motion relative to that by the ATHC, how much fresh water is added to the North Atlantic per degree of global warming, and the climate sensitivity - the global warming for a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration. One way to reduce this uncertainty is to simulate past slowdown/collapse of the ATHC with the AOGCMs and compare their simulated changes in the ATHC and global climate with paleoclimate reconstructions thereof. The presenter has proposed to the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project II (PMIIP) and Worldwide Universities Network (WUN) Arctic Climates & Environments initiative (ACE) that a systematic program be initiated to simulate the change in ATHC and global climate during the Younger Dryas, 13,000 years ago (ka), and the '8.2 ka event', both of which were likely due to the addition of freshwater to the North Atlantic Ocean, and both of which caused cooling in Greenland, the North Atlantic and Europe. This proposal has been accepted by PMIIP and WUN-ACE. Fifteen AOGCM groups have agreed to perform hosing simulations for one or both of the YD and 8.2 ka changes in ATHC and climate.

  9. Glacial Atlantic overturning increased by wind stress in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muglia, Juan; Schmittner, Andreas

    2015-11-01

    Previous Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) showed dissimilar results on transports and structure. Here we analyze the most recent PMIP3 models, which show a consistent increase (on average by 41 ± 26%) and deepening (663 ± 550 m) of the AMOC with respect to preindustrial simulations, in contrast to some reconstructions from proxy data. Simulations run with the University of Victoria (UVic) ocean circulation model suggest that this is caused by changes in the Northern Hemisphere wind stress, brought about by the presence of ice sheets over North America in the LGM. When forced with LGM wind stress anomalies from PMIP3 models, the UVic model responds with an increase of the northward salt transport in the North Atlantic, which strengthens North Atlantic Deep Water formation and the AMOC. These results improve our understanding of the LGM AMOC's driving forces and suggest that some ocean mechanisms may not be correctly represented in PMIP3 models or some proxy data may need reinterpretation.

  10. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  11. Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

    2016-03-01

    During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

  12. Links between tropical rainfall and North Atlantic climate during the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deplazes, Gaudenz; Lückge, Andreas; Peterson, Larry C.; Timmermann, Axel; Hamann, Yvonne; Hughen, Konrad A.; Röhl, Ursula; Laj, Carlo; Cane, Mark A.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Haug, Gerald H.

    2013-03-01

    During the last glacial period, the North Atlantic regionexperienced pronounced, millennial-scale alternations between cold, stadial conditions and milder interstadial conditions--commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations--as well as periods of massive iceberg discharge known as Heinrich events. Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature, as recorded in Greenland, are thought to have affected the location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon. Here we use high-resolution records of sediment colour--a measure of terrigenous versus biogenic content--from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela and the Arabian Sea to assess teleconnections with the North Atlantic climate system during the last glacial period. The Cariaco record indicates that the intertropical convergence zone migrated seasonally over the site during mild stadial conditions, but was permanently displaced south of the basin during peak stadials and Heinrich events. In the Arabian Sea, we find evidence of a weak Indian summer monsoon during the stadial events. The tropical records show a more variable response to North Atlantic cooling than the Greenland temperature records. We therefore suggest that Greenland climate is especially sensitive to variations in the North Atlantic system--in particular sea-ice extent--whereas the intertropical convergence zone and Indian monsoon system respond primarily to variations in mean Northern Hemisphere temperature.

  13. Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on

  14. A Subtropical North Atlantic Regional Atmospheric Moisture Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bingham, F.; D'Addezio, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    The synergistic effects of evaporation (E), precipitation (P), and Ekman transport make the SPURS (Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study) region in the subtropical North Atlantic (15-30°N, 30-45°W) the ideal location for the world's highest open ocean sea surface salinity. Using the MERRA and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses, we reproduce the mean hydrologic state of the atmosphere over the SPURS region since 1979 and roughly deduce the change in salinity across the meridional domain due solely to interactions between E-P and Ekman transport. Our findings suggest a region that is highly evaporative at a mean rate of 4.87 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.2 mm/day and little seasonality. Precipitation is much more variable with an annual fall maximum around 3 mm/day but only a mean rate of 1.37 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.46 mm/day. The resulting E-P variable has a mean rate of 3.50 mm/day with a standard deviation of 1.92 mm/day and matches well with the moisture flux divergence term although the former is typically larger by a small margin. Strong prevailing easterly trade winds generate northward Ekman transports that advect water northward to the salinity maximum around 25°N. A short calculation shows that atmospheric moisture dynamics could potentially account for almost half of the change in salinity between 15°N and 25°N giving an estimate of the role that surface freshwater flux plays in the maintenance of the salinity maximum.

  15. A subtropical North Atlantic regional atmospheric moisture budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Addezio, Joseph M.; Bingham, Frederick M.

    2014-12-01

    The synergistic effects of evaporation (E), precipitation (P), and Ekman transport make the Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study (SPURS-1) region in the subtropical North Atlantic (15-30°N, 30-45°W) the natural location for the world's highest open ocean SSS maximum. Using the MERRA and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses, we reproduce the mean hydrologic state of the atmosphere over the SPURS-1 region since 1979 and roughly deduce the change in salinity across the meridional domain due solely to interactions between E-P and Ekman transport. Our findings suggest a region that is highly evaporative at a mean rate of 4.87 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.2 mm/d and little seasonality. Precipitation is much more variable with an annual fall maximum around 3 mm/d but only a mean rate of 1.37 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.46 mm/d. The resulting E-P variable has a mean rate of 3.50 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.92 mm/d and matches well with the moisture flux divergence term although the former is typically larger by a small margin. Strong prevailing easterly trade winds generate northward Ekman transports that advect water toward the salinity maximum around 25°N. A short calculation shows that atmospheric moisture dynamics could potentially account for about one third of the change in salinity between 15°N and 25°N giving an estimate of the role that surface freshwater flux plays in the maintenance of the salinity maximum.

  16. The Opening of the Arctic-Atlantic Gateway: Tectonic, Oceanographic and Climatic Dynamics - an IODP Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geissler, Wolfram; Knies, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    The modern polar cryosphere reflects an extreme climate state with profound temperature gradients towards high-latitudes. It developed in association with stepwise Cenozoic cooling, beginning with ephemeral glaciations and the appearance of sea ice in the late middle Eocene. The polar ocean gateways played a pivotal role in changing the polar and global climate, along with declining greenhouse gas levels. The opening of the Drake Passage finalized the oceanographic isolation of Antarctica, some 40 Ma ago. The Arctic Ocean was an isolated basin until the early Miocene when rifting and subsequent sea-floor spreading started between Greenland and Svalbard, initiating the opening of the Fram Strait / Arctic-Atlantic Gateway (AAG). Although this gateway is known to be important in Earth's past and modern climate, little is known about its Cenozoic development. However, the opening history and AAG's consecutive widening and deepening must have had a strong impact on circulation and water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. To study the AAG's complete history, ocean drilling at two primary sites and one alternate site located between 73°N and 78°N in the Boreas Basin and along the East Greenland continental margin are proposed. These sites will provide unprecedented sedimentary records that will unveil (1) the history of shallow-water exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, and (2) the development of the AAG to a deep-water connection and its influence on the global climate system. The specific overarching goals of our proposal are to study: (1) the influence of distinct tectonic events in the development of the AAG and the formation of deep water passage on the North Atlantic and Arctic paleoceanography, and (2) the role of the AAG in the climate transition from the Paleogene greenhouse to the Neogene icehouse for the long-term (~50 Ma) climate history of the northern North Atlantic. Getting a continuous record of the

  17. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  18. Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Pahnke, Katharina; Zahn, Rainer

    2005-03-18

    Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability. PMID:15774752

  19. The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Parages, Jorge; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    The so-called "climate shift" (CS) was defined at the beginning of the nineties as a dramatic change between 1976-77 in the basic state of the tropical Pacific and in the ENSO dynamics. Nowadays, the 1976-1977 shift is interpreted as a phase change in a decadal scale oscillation (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO, Mantua et al. 1997) lasting from about 1976 to 1988 (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Miller et al. 1994). However, several changes in the global climate have been reported after the CS; as changes in the air-sea interactions and in the tropical and extratropical teleconnection patterns. The climate variability of the Mediterranean area is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Hurrell, 2003), which frequency and positive phase intensity has suffered an increase after the CS unprecedented in the instrumental period, in coincidence with extreme drought conditions in the Mediterranean region. This results remark the non-stationary variability of the NAO (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008b) and the existence of changes in the underlying dynamics. In addition, Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and ENSO have also shown to exhibit a strong and non- stationary influence in the Mediterranean basin, with maximum correlations at the beginning of the twenty century and since the CS (Mariotti et al. 2002), in concordance with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) evolution. A recent singular discovery show the influence of the Atlantic Niño on its Pacific counterpart (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2009), a relation that was statistically pointed out in Polo et al. (2008a). These results remark the increasing importance of the TAV on the global climate and on the observed change, from the late 70's, in the global teleconnections. Although some studies point out the seasonal dependence of the leading modes of precipitation variability over Europe (Zveryaev, 2006), in this work, a gridded monthly terrestrial gauge

  20. Warm water events in the southeast Atlantic and their impact on regional and large-scale atmospheric conditions in the CMIP5 model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2013-04-01

    Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni

  1. Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.

    2010-12-01

    Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (P<0.05) with a 600

  2. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  3. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  4. Reversed North Atlantic subpolar gyre dynamics in present and glacial climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montoya, M.; Born, A.; Levermann, A.

    2009-04-01

    The dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) are assessed under present and glacial boundary conditions by investigating its sensitivity to surface wind-stress changes using an intermediate complexity coupled climate model. The SPG is found to be stronger in present than in glacial climates and shows an opposite sensitivity to wind-stress changes in both climates. While in the present it decreases with increasing surface wind-stress, in glacial times it rather increases. Both features result from density changes produced by wind-induced circulation changes. Our results suggest the existence of two dynamically distinct regimes of the SPG, depending on the absence or presence of deep water formation (DWF) in the Nordic Seas and a vigorous Greenland-Scotland ridge (GSR) overflow. In the first regime, the GSR overflow is weak and the SPG strength increases with the wind-stress as a result of a basin-scale reduction in stratification. As soon as a vigorous GSR overflow is established, its associated positive density anomalies in the southern GSR slope contribute to reduce the SPG strength. Our results have implications for past glacial abrupt climate changes, which are explained through latitudinal shifts in North Atlantic DWF sites and strengthening of the North Atlantic current. Regardless of the ultimate trigger, an abrupt shift of DWF into the Nordic Seas could result both in a drastic reduction of the SPG strength and a sudden change in its sensitivity to wind-stress variations.

  5. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN GLOBAL SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERNS, MID-ATLANTIC CLIMATE STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT FLUXES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rate of change in Northern Hemisphere temperature in the past century strongly suggests that we are now in a period of rapid global climate change. Also, the climate in the mid-Atlantic is quite sensitive to larger scale climate variation, which affects the frequency and seve...

  6. 600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

    2016-04-01

    A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time

  7. Regional and inter-annual variability in Atlantic zooplankton en route to the Arctic Ocean: potential effects of multi-path Atlantic water advection through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Ormanczyk, Mateusz; Walczowski, Waldemar; Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is among the regions where the climate change effects on ecosystem will be the most rapid and consequential, with Arctic amplification recognized as an integral part of the process. Great part of the changes are forced by advection of warm waters from the North Atlantic and the expected modifications of Arctic marine ecosystem will be induced not only by changing environmental conditions but also as a result of introducing Atlantic biota. Thus, the knowledge of physical and biological heterogeneity of Atlantic inflow is requisite for understanding the effects of climate change on biological diversity and ecosystem functioning in the Arctic. The complex and variable two-branched structure of the Atlantic Water flow via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea most likely has a strong influence on the ocean biology in these regions, especially in the pelagic realm. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems which form essential links between primary producers and grazer/predator consumers, thus they are important for functioning of the biological carbon pump. Changes in zooplankton distribution and abundance may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning, with regulatory effects on climate. Based on data collected in summers of 2012-2014, within the scope of the Polish-Norwegian PAVE research project, we investigate zooplankton distribution, abundance and selected structural characteristics of communities, in relation to water mass properties in the Atlantic Water complex flow to the Arctic Ocean. The main questions addressed here are: what are the differences in zooplankton patterns between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches, and how does the inter-annual variability of Atlantic Water advection relate to changes in zooplankton? The results of the investigation are precondition for foreseeing changes in the pelagic realm in the Arctic Ocean and are necessary for constructing and tuning plankton components of ecosystem models.

  8. Environmental changes in the North Atlantic Region: SCANNET as a collaborative approach for documenting, understanding and predicting changes.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Johansson, M; Heal, O W; Saelthun, N R; Barkved, L J; Bayfield, N; Brandt, O; Brooker, R; Christiansen, H H; Forchhammer, M; Høye, T T; Humlum, O; Järvinen, A; Jonasson, C; Kohler, J; Magnusson, B; Meltofte, H; Mortensen, L; Neuvonen, S; Pearce, I; Rasch, M; Turner, L; Hasholt, B; Huhta, E; Leskinen, E; Nielsen, N; Siikamäki, P

    2004-11-01

    The lands surrounding the North Atlantic Region (the SCANNET Region) cover a wide range of climate regimes, physical environments and availability of natural resources. Except in the extreme North, they have supported human populations and various cultures since at least the end of the last ice age. However, the region is also important at a wider geographical scale in that it influences the global climate and supports animals that migrate between the Arctic and all the other continents of the world. Climate, environment and land use in the region are changing rapidly and projections suggest that global warming will be amplified there while increasing land use might dramatically reduce the remaining wilderness areas. Because much of the region is sparsely populated--if populated at all--observational records of past environmental changes and their impacts are both few and of short duration. However, it is becoming very important to record the changes that are now in progress, to understand the drivers of these changes, and to predict future consequences of the changes. To facilitate research into understanding impacts of global change on the lands of the North Atlantic Regions, and also to monitor changes in real time, an EU-funded network of research sites and infrastructures was formed in 2000: this was called SCANNET--SCANdinavian/North European NETwork of Terrestrial Field Bases. SCANNET currently consists of 9 core sites and 5 sites within local networks that together cover the broad range of current climate and predicted change in the region. Climate observations are well replicated across the network, whereas each site has tended to select particular environmental and ecological subjects for intensive observation. This provides diversity of both subject coverage and expertise. In this paper, we summarize the findings of SCANNET to-date and outline its information bases in order to increase awareness of data on environmental change in the North Atlantic

  9. Little Ice Age wintertime climate cooling linked to N-Atlantic subpolar gyre warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuijpers, Antoon; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Andresen, Camilla S.; Staines-Urías, Francisca

    2015-04-01

    Traditionally, the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the North Atlantic is believed to have been marked by negative Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. In apparent contrast, we present evidence from sediment core records from the N-Atlantic Subpolar Gyre showing prevalence of warm SST conditions. Our proxy data include both alkenone-based SST reconstructions and results from faunal and geochemical foraminiferal studies. Subpolar Gyre SST warming after the Medieval Climate Anomaly is observed in the Labrador Current close to the Gulf Stream boundary off Newfoundland, which agrees with previously reported increased influence of warmer, Gulf Stream-derived Slope Water off southern Newfoundland(1). Our core records from the West- and East Greenland Current realm off southern Greenland, as well as sites in Faroese waters, correspondingly indicate increased influence of warm, saline North Atlantic / Irminger Current waters. Other recently published studies also report LIA SST warming in the northern subpolar North Atlantic(2) as well as increased heat transport into the Arctic via the West Spitsbergen Current(3). Growing evidence indicates that positive SST anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean can promote negative NAO conditions, thus be linked with cold wintertime conditions in Northwestern Europe. A published modeling study using ensemble simulations with an atmospheric GCM forced with reconstructed SST data for the period 1871-1999 shows weakening of the westerly winds around 60o N with SST anomalies that have the same sign across the North Atlantic(4). Six other climate models show that with some years of delay, an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation leads to a weak negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during winter(5). Furthermore, it was recently found that the stratosphere is a key element of extra-tropical response to ocean variability. Observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments indicate that large-scale Atlantic Ocean

  10. Origin of millennial-scale climate signals in the subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.

    2011-12-01

    In this study, I am testing the hypothesis that millennial-scale climate signals in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic are linked to external driving factors such as the harmonics of precession. The test is based on the observation that the precession period is not stationary through time. For example, between 900 and 340 Ka the time interval between successive precession minima (or maxima) ranges primarily from 17 kyr to 21 kyr with discrete intervals lasting up to ~30 kyr (spectral power centered on the 23 kyr and 19 kyr periodicities). After 340 Ka, however, precession minima (or maxima) consistently occur at longer intervals, between 21 kyr and 25 kyr (spectral power focused at the 23 kyr period). If in proxy records millennial-scale variations reflect the harmonics of precession, I expect that the millennial-scale periodicity associated with the 19 kyr precession period (e.g., the 4.8 kyr peak) loses power as the primary orbital peak loses power at 340 Ka. First order tests of this idea can be made using published planktic foraminiferal δ18O records from ODP Site 1059 (Hagen and Keigwin, 2002; Oppo et al., 2001) in the northwestern subtropical Atlantic spanning Marine Isotope Stages 2-6 (~20-150 Ka) and Site 1058 spanning MIS 12-22 (~450-900 Ka, Weirauch et al., 2008). After filtering the records to remove the 100 kyr cycle, the older time slice contains both precession peaks (23 and 19 kyr). Significant (95% confidence interval) suborbital peaks occur at 12 kyr, 5.7 kyr and 5.0 kyr, which are close to the periodicities of the expected harmonics. The younger time slice shows only one precession peak centered at ~23 kyr and significant (95% confidence interval) sub-orbital peaks at 11.2 kyr, and 5 kyr. Only the 11.2 kyr peak agrees with the expected period of the second harmonic of the 23 kyr precession peak. We are currently generating high resolution planktic foraminiferal stable isotope records in this region to span MIS 7, which, together with data from

  11. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 2000 years: Patterns, Consequences and Potential Climatic Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Lane, P.; Hawkes, A.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Ranasinghe, P. N.; Toomey, M.; MacDonald, D.

    2011-12-01

    1300 years ago. A reconstruction of intense hurricane landfalls from the Gulf coast documents some similar patterns that likely point to large scale climate forcing; however, some significant differences are evident. For example, the Gulf frequently experienced intense hurricanes during the 13th and 14th centuries, but a subsequent decline in activity has persisted through the historic period. This antiphasing of intense hurricane activity between the East and Gulf coasts may point to basin-wide changes in hurricane tracks, but regional controls on the frequency of intense hurricanes (e.g., loop current penetration in the Gulf of Mexico) may also have driven spatial variability in Atlantic paleohurricane records.

  12. Last Glacial - Holocene climate variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Wenshen; Esper, Oliver; Gersonde, Rainer

    2016-03-01

    The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the glacial/interglacial global carbon cycle. However, there is a substantial lack of information from its Antarctic Zone south of the Polar Front (PF) to understand key climate processes (e.g., sea ice variability, productivity changes, CO2 source region, shifts of the Southern Westerly Wind) active in this region during the glacial/interglacial transition, due to the limited high-resolution sediment records from this area. To close this gap, we investigated high resolution diatom records from a series of sediment cores from the Atlantic and Western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean between the modern PF and the Winter Sea Ice (WSI) edge. Summer Sea Surface Temperature (SSST) and sea ice information spanning the past 30 thousand years were derived from diatom transfer functions and indicators, which augment comprehensive information on past surface ocean conditions and related ocean and atmospheric circulation, as well as opal deposition. These complementary lines of evidences also provide important environmental boundary conditions for climate simulations understanding the past climate development in the high latitudes Southern Ocean. Our reconstructions show that the Last Glacial (LG) SSSTs south of the modern PF are 1-3 °C colder than modern conditions, WSI expanded to the modern PF. Our data suggests effective carbon export in the Antarctic Zone during the LG. Deglacial two steps of warming support the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Antarctic Zone is an important source region for the CO2 deglacial increase. The warming was more suppressed towards south, due to continuous ice discharge from Antarctica. The SSSTs exceeded modern values during the early Holocene optimum, when WSI extent probably retreated south of its modern position. The southern boundary of maximum opal deposition zone may have shifted to south of 55°S in the Bouvet Island area at this time. The mid-late Holocene cooling with WSI re-expanding to the

  13. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    PubMed

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research. PMID:15264594

  14. A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increased sediments, nutrients, and other contaminants in the Mid-Atlantic region contribute to environmental problems ranging from stream degradation to possibly Pfiesteria attacks in Chesapeake Bay. Restoring riparian areas - the filters between terrestrial watersheds and aquat...

  15. A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robson, Jon; Ortega, Pablo; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-07-01

    In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts such as increased hurricane numbers and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately 0.45 °C or 1.5 × 1022 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.

  16. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  17. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Vita, P.; Allocca, V.; Manna, F.; Fabbrocino, S.

    2012-05-01

    Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results

  18. Simulating Regional Climate Change in New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komurcu, M.; Acosta, R. P.; Huber, M.

    2014-12-01

    Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulated future projections using smaller scale, higher resolution models is widely used to assess the regional impacts of climate change on weather, ecosystems and economy. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale Community Earth System Model (CESM) future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to simulate the possible effects of climate change in New Hampshire (NH). The first step to ensure that the downscaled model output is representative of the NH region is to find the correct WRF model set up for the region. This task is accomplished using CESM simulations of the historical period as forcing for WRF simulations and performing multiple sensitivity tests with different options for WRF physics parameterizations such as boundary layer, cloud microphysics and convection parameterizations. Simulated precipitation, temperature and other variables are compared with observations to obtain the more suitable model setup for NH. WRF simulations are performed on nested grids with 36, 12 and 4 km grid spacing, and the smallest grid sized nest is focused over NH. Furthermore, to prevent the drift of regional model from global model simulated climatology, WRF is reinitialized from GCM output every five days. Previous studies have shown that future regional climate model predictions of precipitation and snow water equivalent depend on the re-initialization interval of WRF from GCM forcing specifically over the western U.S, where topography is high. This problem is mainly because re-initialization erases the simulated memory for certain variables such as soil moisture. To evaluate whether re-initialization time-scale is also important in the Eastern US, in this study, the effects of 5-daily versus monthly re-initialization of WRF using CESM output on model simulated precipitation are also investigated. The obtained WRF model setup is

  19. Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gu, Guojun

    2005-01-01

    Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

  20. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  1. Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Ni

  2. North Atlantic Holocene climate evolution recorded by high-resolution terrestrial and marine biomarker records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moossen, Heiko; Bendle, James; Seki, Osamu; Quillmann, Ursula; Kawamura, Kimitaka

    2015-12-01

    Holocene climatic change is driven by a plethora of forcing mechanisms acting on different time scales, including: insolation, internal ocean (e.g. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; AMOC) and atmospheric (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO) variability. However, it is unclear how these driving mechanisms interact with each other. Here we present five, biomarker based, paleoclimate records (air-, sea surface temperature and precipitation), from a fjordic sediment core, revealing North Atlantic terrestrial and marine climate in unprecedented detail. The Early Holocene (10.7-7.8 kyrs BP) is characterised by relatively high air temperatures while SSTs are dampened by melt water events, and relatively low precipitation. The Middle Holocene (7.8-3.2 kyrs BP) is characterised by peak SSTs, declining air temperatures and high precipitation. A pronounced marine thermal maximum occurs between ∼7-5.5 kyrs BP, 3000 years after the terrestrial thermal maximum, driven by melt water cessation and an accelerating AMOC. The neoglacial cooling, between 5.8 and 3.2 kyrs BP leads into the late Holocene. We demonstrate that an observed modern link between Icelandic precipitation variability during different NAO phases, may have existed from ∼7.5 kyrs BP. A simultaneous decoupling of both air, and sea surface temperature records from declining insolation at ∼3.2 kyrs BP may indicate a threshold, after which internal feedback mechanisms, namely the NAO evolved to be the primary drivers of Icelandic climate on centennial time-scales.

  3. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

  4. Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning.

    PubMed

    Villela, D M; Mattos, E A de; Pinto, A S; Vieira, S A; Martinelli, L A

    2012-08-01

    The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km², today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions. PMID:23011294

  5. A regime shift in the subpolar gyre strength due to a sudden transition in the North Atlantic climate during the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann

    2015-04-01

    investigate the role of the external forcing and of the background state on this climate shift. Preliminary results from an experiment initialized before the climate transition and excluding the volcanic cluster do not show such a rapid change in the subpolar gyre strength and, more generally, in the climate of the North Atlantic/Arctic region. Relatively small but very close volcanic eruptions can thus exert a cooling influence on the North Atlantic/Arctic climate similar to that found for much stronger but indeed rarer eruptions.

  6. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  7. The Plio-Pleistocene development of Atlantic deep-water circulation and its influence on climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, David B.; Jung, Simon J. A.; Kroon, Dick

    2015-09-01

    Using benthic stable isotope records from 10 sites in the Atlantic Ocean, including two new records from Walvis Ridge in the Southeast Atlantic (Sites 1264 and 1267), we review changes in Atlantic deep-water circulation in the context of Plio-Pleistocene climate. Overall, we find non-linear responses of Atlantic deep-water circulation to a cooling climate, with differently evolving glacial and interglacial states. Our main conclusion is that peak North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production was reached between ˜2.0 and 1.5 Ma, most prominently seen by a maximum in ventilated (high δ13C) conditions in the mid-depth Southeast Atlantic (Site 1264). We infer that a major source of NADW at this time was the export of dense overflow water from the Nordic Seas into the abyssal East Atlantic. Sea surface temperature records from the North and South Atlantic support this notion and indicate that the peak NADW production between ˜2.0 and 1.5 Ma was compensated by a stronger warm surface-water return flow (i.e. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was enhanced), causing long-term (>105 year) heat piracy from the South to the North Atlantic. In the wider picture of Plio-Pleistocene climate evolution, we find that a long-term enhancement in the average state of AMOC (˜2.4-1.3 Ma) coincides with the "41-kyr world". Hence, we speculate that the transitory negative feedback response of enhanced AMOC to a cooling climate supplied heat to key areas of ice-sheet growth, acting to limit their size and maintain the "41-kyr world". Once a threshold in global cooling was reached, the strength of AMOC lessened, providing a positive feedback for the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition and the associated build-up of northern hemisphere ice-sheets.

  8. Providing Western Regional Climate Services - Perspectives from the Western Regional Climate Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The western United States faces distinct challenges such as persistent drought, dwindling water resources amidst an expanding population, and climate-sensitive alpine environments. The complex terrain of the region compounds these challenges. The Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), one of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) university-based regional climate centers, has been providing climate services since 1986 that support the unique needs of stakeholders in the mountainous region of the western U.S. This includes meteorological data, tools, and products for thousands of stations across the West, and gridded data products, such as based on PRISM for example, that are used for drought assessment among other needs. WRCC and partners have developed numerous web-based tools and products to support decision-making and research pertinent to the West. Changing climate and variability along with the diverse physical and human geographies of the western U.S. require continuous advancements in climate knowledge and applications development. Examples include the need for tools and model downscaling that support and inform adaptation, mitigation and resiliency planning; web-based analytics that would allow users to interact and explore temporal and spatial data and relationships, and products from new satellite sensors that can provide higher resolution information on soil moisture and vegetation health given the sparseness of in-situ observations for the vastness of the West. This presentation provides an overview of some insights, opportunities and challenges of providing current and future climate services in the West.

  9. Ocean circulation in the southern Benguela region from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene: tracking Agulhas leakage into the SE Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; Felder, Sojna; Leng, Melanie

    2013-04-01

    The transition from the warmth of the middle Pliocene to the large amplitude, 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene provides a way to understand the forcings and impacts of regional and global climate change. Here, we investigate changes in ocean circulation over the period from 3.5 Ma to present using a marine sediment core, ODP Site 1087 (31o28'S, 15o19'E, 1374m water depth). ODP 1087 is located in the South-east Atlantic Ocean, outside the Benguela upwelling region. Its location allows investigation of the history of the heat and salt transfer to the Atlantic Ocean from the Indian Ocean ("Agulhas leakage"), which plays an important part in the global thermohaline circulation. It is not known how this transfer reacted to generally warmer global temperatures during the mid-Pliocene, nor to the transition to a globally cooler climate in the early Pleistocene. Our approach is to apply several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the history of ODP 1087. These include the U37K' index to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, pigment analysis for understanding productivity changes, and foraminifera assemblage analysis to detect the presence of different water masses at the site. We have identified changes in SSTs and biological productivity that we argue to reflect shifts in the position of the Benguela upwelling cells, and a changing influence of Agulhas leakage. Our new data reveal a different organization in the Southeast Atlantic. It shows that during the Pliocene ODP 1087 was dominated by Benguela upwelling which had shifted south. We find no evidence for Agulhas leakage during the mid Pliocene, which could mean that Agulhas Leakage was severely reduced during the mid Pliocene. The implications of these results for understanding Plio-Pleistocene climate changes will be explored here.

  10. Regional Feedbacks Between the Ocean and the Atmosphere in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L.; Garcia, M.; Kelly, K. A.; Booth, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    The ocean acts to buffer changes in the climate system with the upper 800m of the ocean taking up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system. On interannual time scales, surface heat fluxes damp the low-frequency heat content anomalies in some areas of the ocean where heat anomalies can be released back to the atmosphere. Analysis of satellite altimetry observations of SSH (sea surface height) as a proxy for upper ocean heat content and net suface heat flux from OAFlux (Objectively Analyzed air-sea fluxes) 993-2009 allows the identification of the times of the year and the locations in the North Atlantic where heat content anomalies are driving surface fluxes. Heat content has six month persistence while surface flux has at most one month persistence. Times series for each month of the year at each location are created to examine the lagged correlation between upper ocean heat content and the net surface heat fluxes. The heat content anomalies south of the Gulf Stream in June through November are negatively correlated with surface fluxes in November with a warmer ocean leading to surface fluxes out of the ocean. In this region, the mixed-layer by November reaches 100 m and the previous summer's stored heat is accessible to the atmosphere. The high correlations continue into December and January. By February, the correlation is no longer significant. In the region between 15N and 40N off the coast of Africa, January through May heat content are anti-correlated with surface fluxes in May. In May at this location, the climatological sensible heat flux is into the ocean, the planetary boundary layer is stable and stratocumulus clouds are common. Significant correlations in the summer are also found in the central subpolar North Atlantic. This analysis suggests that locally ocean heat content anomalies can feedback to the atmosphere, but only during certain times of the year. The impact on the atmosphere in late fall and early winter can influence of the