Science.gov

Sample records for australia monitoring prediction

  1. Using a multi-parameter monitoring methodology to predict failures in the cryogenic plant of the cold neutron source at Australia's OPAL reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Weijian; Thiering, Russell

    2012-06-01

    A 5 kW Brayton-cycle helium refrigeration plant provides cooling at 20 K to the Cold Neutron Source (CNS) at Australia's OPAL Reactor. During several years of operation to the present day, the plant has experienced an unusually high number of turbine and compressor failures. The root cause for some of the failures is known, but for others remains to be determined. All of the failures were catastrophic without any prior warning from standard industrial monitoring based on singular process variables such as temperature, pressure and vibration. The failures and the down time they caused have been very costly. As the operator of the plant, we have developed a multi-parameter monitoring (MPM) methodology to track the performance of the plant. The methodology utilises indicators obtained from a combination of process variables based on their thermodynamic relations. By studying the historical trends of appropriate indicators, especially during the past failures, we have found some indicators that would be able to improve our predictive capability so that we can avoid similar failures in the future.

  2. Predicting the course of AIDS in Australia.

    PubMed

    Solomon, P J; Wilson, S R; Swanson, C E; Cooper, D A

    1990-10-01

    There have been urgent demands for knowledge about the epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Australia. Accurate predictions are important for efficient allocation and planning of limited health-care resources. Ideal data for this purpose would be reliable knowledge of the past and present incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. However, since the incidence of the infection is unknown predictions can only be based on historical data of the incidence of AIDS. In this article, we show the limitations of such predictions by examining a broad range of mathematical models that successfully track the observed data (1187 cases diagnosed to December 31, 1988). In addition, we describe a simple method for prediction in subgroups where the numbers of cases observed so far are small. Four models representing different forms of departure from the simple exponential model provide the best fits to the Australian AIDS data. Regional variability and a possible effect resulting from the introduction of zidovudine were incorporated into the models. Significant regional variability in the course of the epidemic was observed between New South Wales, Victoria and the rest of the country. For Australia as a whole, the doubling time changed from less than one year before mid 1987 to more than two years after this time. Model fits were improved by fitting the models to just the four years of data from 1985. The models give comparable predictions for the first year (1989) of around 600 new cases. However, by 1993 the predictions vary considerably, ranging from 500 to 2300 new cases. It is predicted that between 3100 and 6700 cases are likely to be diagnosed in Australia between 1989 and 1993. The results from the subgroup prediction demonstrate that when the observed number of cases is small, then the range of predictions for a future time interval is very wide. For reliable long-term predictions that are necessary for public health planning, basic

  3. Building a Continental Scale Land Cover Monitoring Framework for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thankappan, Medhavy; Lymburner, Leo; Tan, Peter; McIntyre, Alexis; Curnow, Steven; Lewis, Adam

    2012-04-01

    Land cover information is critical for national reporting and decision making in Australia. A review of information requirements for reporting on national environmental indicators identified the need for consistent land cover information to be compared against a baseline. A Dynamic Land Cover Dataset (DLCD) for Australia has been developed by Geoscience Australia and the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently, to provide a comprehensive and consistent land cover information baseline to enable monitoring and reporting for sustainable farming practices, water resource management, soil erosion, and forests at national and regional scales. The DLCD was produced from the analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data at 250-metre resolution derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period from 2000 to 2008. The EVI time series data for each pixel was modelled as 12 coefficients based on the statistical, phenological and seasonal characteristics. The time series were then clustered in coefficients spaces and labelled using ancillary information on vegetation and land use at the catchment scale. The accuracy of the DLCD was assessed using field survey data over 25,000 locations provided by vegetation and land management agencies in State and Territory jurisdictions, and by ABARES. The DLCD is seen as the first in a series of steps to build a framework for national land cover monitoring in Australia. A robust methodology to provide annual updates to the DLCD is currently being developed at Geoscience Australia. There is also a growing demand from the user community for land cover information at better spatial resolution than currently available through the DLCD. Global land cover mapping initiatives that rely on Earth observation data offer many opportunities for national and international programs to work in concert and deliver better outcomes by streamlining efforts on development and

  4. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  5. Australia.

    PubMed

    1984-05-01

    This discussion of Australia covers the following: the people, geography, history, government, political conditions, economy, foreign relations and defense, and relations between the US and Australia. In 1983 the population of Australia totaled 15.3 million with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. The infant mortality rate is 9.9/1000 live births with a life expectancy of 74 years. The people of Australia are predominantly of British origin, and their culture and outlook are similar to those of the US. The aboriginal population is estimated to be 1% of the total. Much of Australia's culture is derived from European roots, but distinctive Australian trends have evolved from the environment, aboriginal culture, and the influence of Australia's neighbors. Australia, the world's smallest continent but 1 of the largest nations, is located below the Southeast Asian archipelago and is bounded on the east by the Pacific Ocean and on the west by the Indian Ocean. Most of the continent is a low, irregular plateau. Little is known of Australia before its discovery by Dutch explorers in the 17th century. On January 26, 1788 the Colony of New South Wales was founded and formal proclamation on the site of Sydney followed on February 7. Many of the 1st settlers were convicts. The mid-19th century began a policy of emancipation of convicts and assisted immigration of free people. The 1st federal Parliament was opened at Melbourne in May 1901. Australia passed the Statute of Westminster Adoption Act in 1942, which officially established Australia's complete autonomy in both internal and external affairs. The Commonwealth government was created with a constitution patterned partly on the US constitution. Australia is a fully independent nation within the Commonwealth. The federal Parliament is bicameral, consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives. At the apex of the court system is the High Court of Australia. The 3 main political groups in Australia are the Liberal Party, the

  6. On predicting monitoring system effectiveness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cappello, Carlo; Sigurdardottir, Dorotea; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo

    2015-03-01

    While the objective of structural design is to achieve stability with an appropriate level of reliability, the design of systems for structural health monitoring is performed to identify a configuration that enables acquisition of data with an appropriate level of accuracy in order to understand the performance of a structure or its condition state. However, a rational standardized approach for monitoring system design is not fully available. Hence, when engineers design a monitoring system, their approach is often heuristic with performance evaluation based on experience, rather than on quantitative analysis. In this contribution, we propose a probabilistic model for the estimation of monitoring system effectiveness based on information available in prior condition, i.e. before acquiring empirical data. The presented model is developed considering the analogy between structural design and monitoring system design. We assume that the effectiveness can be evaluated based on the prediction of the posterior variance or covariance matrix of the state parameters, which we assume to be defined in a continuous space. Since the empirical measurements are not available in prior condition, the estimation of the posterior variance or covariance matrix is performed considering the measurements as a stochastic variable. Moreover, the model takes into account the effects of nuisance parameters, which are stochastic parameters that affect the observations but cannot be estimated using monitoring data. Finally, we present an application of the proposed model to a real structure. The results show how the model enables engineers to predict whether a sensor configuration satisfies the required performance.

  7. Predicting milk yield in sheep used for dairying in Australia.

    PubMed

    Morrissey, A D; Cameron, A W N; Caddy, D J; Tilbrook, A J

    2007-11-01

    It is necessary to identify traits that are simple to measure and correlated with milk yield to select ewes for dairying from existing populations of sheep in Australia. We studied 217 primiparous and 113 multiparous (second parity, n = 51; third parity, n = 40; and fourth parity, n = 22) East Friesian crossbred ewes, for 2 consecutive lactations, that were milked by machine following a period of suckling (24 to 28 d). We measured lamb growth, milk production, milk yield, and residual milk during early lactation (predicts milk yield. Milk production at weaning, or the amount of residual milk, or both, predict milk yield within lactations. These measures also predict milk yield between lactations. Lambs were weighed at birth and weaning and milk production in ewes was measured using a 4-h milk production test at d 5 of lactation and at weaning. Following weaning, ewes were milked twice daily and milk yield was recorded weekly for 8 wk and once a month thereafter. Milk production (using a 16-h milk production test) and residual milk were measured at weaning, and again 1 wk and 4 wk later. Milk yield to 120 d was correlated (r2 = 0.39) between lactations, and 120-d milk yield (primiparous 82.7 +/- 2.0 L; multiparous 107.1 +/- 4.2 L; second lactation 146 +/- 3.7 L) can be predicted after 4 wk of machine milking using a single measurement of either daily milk yield (primiparous 770 +/- 25 mL/d; multiparous 940 +/- 44 mL/d; second lactation 1,372 +/- 46 mL/d, r2 = 0.60 to 0.65) or daily milk production (primiparous 1,197 +/- 27 mL/d; multiparous 1,396 +/- 62 mL/d; second lactation 1,707 +/- 45 mL/d, r2 = 0.50 to 0.53). Residual milk in primiparous ewes (38%) and multiparous ewes (34%) was high (292 +/- 11 and 321 +/- 20 mL, respectively) in the first lactation, but lower (17%) in the second lactation (238 +/- 17 mL). Residual milk and 120-d milk yield were not

  8. Australia.

    PubMed

    1989-03-01

    The smallest continent and one of the largest countries, Australia is a country of diverse geographical conditions and differing cultures of people unified by one predominant language and political system. Mountains, desert and rivers are some of the varying landscape features of Australia, although the climate and condition for most of the country is tropical. Original Australians, a hunting-gathering people called Aborigines, came to Australia over 38,000 years ago. Today the Aborigines compose about 1% of the population and live in traditional tribal areas as well as cities. The 1st European settlement came in 1788 from Great Britain. After World War II, the population doubled. Although the population is primarily composed of British and Irish immigrants, immigrants from other European countries such as Italy and Greece as well as refugees from Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are a significant factor to the growing Australian population. Australian and Aboriginal culture has took hold and took notice in the areas of opera, art, literature and film. The Australian Commonwealth is based on a constitution similar to that of the United States government. The National Parliament is bicameral with both the Senate and the House of Representatives having a select number of elected officials from each state and territory. The Australian economy is predominantly reliant on the sale of mineral and agricultural exports. History, economic changes, defense, international relations and notes to the traveler are also discussed in this overview of Australia. PMID:12177993

  9. Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Inglis, Christine

    1986-01-01

    Examines educational provisions for ethnic and racial groups in Australia, comprised primarily of the aborigines and the migrants or non-English speaking immigrants. Discussion of the official policies of "self determination" and "multiculturalism" emphasizes the important differences between the two and the considerations given them by the…

  10. Monitoring the Galactic Centre with the Australia Telescope Compact Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkar, A.; Eckart, A.; Straubmeier, C.; Kunneriath, D.; Jalali, B.; Sabha, N.; Shahzamanian, B.; García-Marín, M.; Valencia-S, M.; Sjouwerman, L.; Britzen, S.; Karas, V.; Dovčiak, M.; Donea, A.; Zensus, A.

    2016-05-01

    The supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at the centre of the Milky Way undergoes regular flaring activity, which is thought to arise from the innermost region of the accretion flow. Between 2010 and 2014, we performed monitoring observations of the Galactic Centre to study the flux-density variations at 3 mm using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We obtain light curves of Sgr A* by subtracting the contributions from the extended emission around it, and the elevation and time-dependent gains of the telescope. We perform structure function analysis and the Bayesian blocks representation to detect flare events. The observations detect six instances of significant variability in the flux density of Sgr A* in three observations, with variations between 0.5 and 1.0 Jy, which last for 1.5-3 h. We use the adiabatically expanding plasmon model to explain the short time-scale variations in the flux density. We derive the physical quantities of the modelled flare emission, such as the source expansion speed vexp, source sizes, spectral indices and the turnover frequency. These parameters imply that the expanding source components are either confined to the immediate vicinity of Sgr A* by contributing to the corona or the disc, or have a bulk motion greater than vexp. No exceptional flux-density variation on short flare time-scales was observed during the approach and the flyby of the dusty S-cluster object (DSO/G2). This is consistent with its compactness and the absence of a large bow shock.

  11. Seasonal Dynamical Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-05-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events. Coral bleaching occurs during times of stress, particularly when SSTs exceed the coral colony's tolerance level. Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of the world's reef systems with predictions by the international community that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity. Advance warning of anomalous sea surface temperatures, and thus potential bleaching events, would allow for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. Seasonal SST forecasts from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model POAMA (Bureau of Meteorology) have skill in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) several months into the future. We will present model forecasts and probabilistic products for use in reef management, and assess model skill in the region. These products will revolutionise the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Australian region.

  12. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff looking at potential moves to higher education institutions in Australia. By establishing a web-based portal, attracting interested parties from around the world with information about Australian universities and subsequent career opportunities, web analytics are…

  13. The appropriateness of opt-out consent for monitoring childhood obesity in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lacy, K; Kremer, P; de Silva-Sanigorski, A; Allender, S; Leslie, E; Jones, L; Fornaro, S; Swinburn, B

    2012-10-01

    Childhood obesity monitoring is a fundamental component of obesity prevention but is poorly done in Australia. Monitoring obesity prevalence in children provides important population health data that can be used to track trends over time, identify areas at greatest risk of obesity, determine the effectiveness of interventions and policies, raise awareness and stimulate action. High participation rates are essential for effective monitoring because these provide more representative data. Passive ('opt-out') consent has been shown to provide high participation rates in international childhood obesity monitoring programs and in a recent Australian federal initiative monitoring early child development. A federal initiative structured like existing child development monitoring programs, but with the authority to collect height and weight measurements using opt-out consent, is recommended to monitor rates of childhood obesity in Australia. PMID:22888020

  14. Prediction and monitoring of volcanic activities

    SciTech Connect

    Sudradjat, A.

    1986-07-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the art for predicting and monitoring volcanic activities, and it emphasizes the experience obtained by the Volcanological Survey Indonesia for active volcanoes. The limited available funds, the large number of active volcanoes to monitor, and the high population density of the volcanic area are the main problems encountered. Seven methods of volcano monitoring are applied to the active volcanoes of Indonesia: seismicity, ground deformation, gravity and magnetic studies, self-potential studies, petrochemistry, gas monitoring, and visual observation. Seismic monitoring augmented by gas monitoring has proven to be effective, particularly for predicting individual eruptions at the after-initial phase. However, the success of the prediction depends on the characteristics of each volcano. In general, the initial eruption phase is the most difficult phenomenon to predict. The preparation of hazard maps and the continuous awareness of the volcanic eruption are the most practical ways to mitigate volcanic danger.

  15. Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziehn, T.; Law, R. M.; Rayner, P. J.; Roff, G.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric transport inversion is commonly used to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) flux estimates from concentration measurements. The optimal location of ground-based observing stations that supply these measurements can be determined by network design. Here, we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to derive optimal GHG observing networks for Australia. This extends the network design for carbon dioxide (CO2) performed by Ziehn et al. (2014) to also minimise the uncertainty on the flux estimates for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both individually and in a combined network using multiple objectives. Optimal networks are generated by adding up to five new stations to the base network, which is defined as two existing stations, Cape Grim and Gunn Point, in southern and northern Australia respectively. The individual networks for CO2, CH4 and N2O and the combined observing network show large similarities because the flux uncertainties for each GHG are dominated by regions of biologically productive land. There is little penalty, in terms of flux uncertainty reduction, for the combined network compared to individually designed networks. The location of the stations in the combined network is sensitive to variations in the assumed data uncertainty across locations. A simple assessment of economic costs has been included in our network design approach, considering both establishment and maintenance costs. Our results suggest that, while site logistics change the optimal network, there is only a small impact on the flux uncertainty reductions achieved with increasing network size.

  16. Perceived coping & concern predict terrorism preparedness in Australia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the aftermath of major terrorist incidents research shows population shifts towards protective behaviours, including specific preparedness and avoidance responses. Less is known about individual preparedness in populations with high assumed threat but limited direct exposure, such as Australia. In this study we aimed to determine whether individuals with high perceived coping and higher concern would show greater preparedness to respond to terrorism threats. Methods Adults in New South Wales (NSW) completed terrorism perception and response questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2010 (N=2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between personal coping/concern factors and terrorism-related preparedness and avoidance behaviours, and to control for potential confounders such as socio-demographic and threat perception factors. Results Increased vigilance for suspicious behaviours was the most commonly reported behavioural response to perceived terrorism threat. Multivariate analyses showed that the factor combination of high perceived coping and higher concern was the most consistent predictor of terrorism preparedness behaviours and evacuation intentions, including increased vigilance (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR)=2.07, p=0.001) learning evacuation plans (AOR=1.61, p=0.05), establishing emergency contact plans (AOR=2.73, p<0.001), willingness to evacuate homes (AOR=2.20, p=0.039), and willingness to evacuate workplaces or public facilities (AOR=6.19, p=0.015) during potential future incidents. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that terrorism preparedness behaviours are strongly associated with perceived high coping but that this relationship is also mediated by personal concerns relating to this threat. Cognitive variables such as coping self-efficacy are increasingly targeted as part of natural hazard preparedness

  17. Predicting adolescent breakfast consumption in the UK and Australia using an extended theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Mullan, Barbara; Wong, Cara; Kothe, Emily

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) with the addition of risk awareness could predict breakfast consumption in a sample of adolescents from the UK and Australia. It was hypothesised that the TPB variables of attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control (PBC) would significantly predict intentions, and that inclusion of risk perception would increase the proportion of variance explained. Secondly it was hypothesised that intention and PBC would predict behaviour. Participants were recruited from secondary schools in Australia and the UK. A total of 613 participants completed the study (448 females, 165 males; mean=14years ±1.1). The TPB predicted 42.2% of the variance in intentions to eat breakfast. All variables significantly predicted intention with PBC as the strongest component. The addition of risk made a small but significant contribution to the prediction of intention. Together intention and PBC predicted 57.8% of the variance in breakfast consumption. PMID:23219456

  18. Improving Climate Prediction By Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leroy, S. S.; Redaelli, G.; Grassi, B.

    2014-12-01

    Various climate agencies are pursuing concepts of space-based atmospheric monitoring based on ideas of empirically verifiable accuracy in observations. Anticipating that atmospheric monitoring systems based in observing the emitted longwave spectrum, the reflected shortwave spectrum, and radio occultation are implemented, we seek to discover how long-term records in these quantities might be used to improve our ability to predict climate change. This is a follow-up to a previous study that found that climate monitoring by remote sensing better informs climate prediction than does climate monitoring in situ. We have used the output of a CMIP5 historical scenario to hind-cast observation types being considered for space-based atmospheric monitoring to modify ensemble prediction of multi-decadal climate change produced by a CMIP5 future scenario. Specifically, we have considered spatial fingerprints of 1970­-2005 averages and trends in hind-cast observations to improve global average surface air temperature change from 2005 to 2100. Correlations between hind-cast observations at individual locations on the globe and multi-decadal change are generally consistent with a null-correlation distribution. We have found that the modes in inter-model differences in hind-casts are clearly identified with tropical clouds, but only Arctic warming as can be identified in radio occultation observations correlates with multi-decadal change, but only with 80% confidence. Understanding how long-term monitoring can be used to improve climate prediction remains an unsolved problem, but it is anticipated that improving climate prediction will depend strongly on an ability to distinguish between climate forcing and climate response in remotely sensed observables.

  19. Long-term marine litter monitoring in the remote Great Australian Bight, South Australia.

    PubMed

    Edyvane, K S; Dalgetty, A; Hone, P W; Higham, J S; Wace, N M

    2004-06-01

    The Anxious Bay beach litter clearance is the longest running annual survey of ocean-based litter in Australia. It's remoteness from centres of human population and location (with respect to prevailing winds and currents) make it an ideal place for monitoring ocean or ship-based litter in Australia's southern oceans and particularly, the Great Australian Bight. Over the 1991-1999 period, a large but gradual decline in the amount of beach washed litter was recorded (with minor peaks recorded during the 1992 and 1994 surveys). Beach washed litter decreased by approximately 86%, from 344 kg recorded in 1991 (13.2 kg/km) to 49 kg in 1999 (i.e. 1.9 kg/km), reaching a maximum of 390 kg in 1992 (or 15 kg/km of beach). However, a sharp increase in litter was recorded in 2000 (i.e. 252 kg or 9.7 kg/km). This increase in litter yield in 2000 is probably due to stronger than average onshore surface flow (or Ekman Transport) in the western Eyre Peninsula and Bight region. Prior to the survey in 2000, the results appeared to indicate that ocean litter on Anxious Bay beach was beginning to level out at around 50-70 kg/year (i.e. 2-3 kg/km). As the beach surveys involve the assumption that the beach is completely cleared of litter, this may represent a baseline level for ocean-based litter in the region. The yields and type of litter collected from the annual survey indicates that the majority of litter washed ashore originates from commercial fishing activities within the Great Australian Bight. Most of the fishing-related litter was directly sourced to the Southern Rock Lobster Fishery (i.e. bait buckets, baskets, pots), the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery (i.e. codends, trawl nets) and the Southern Shark Fishery (i.e. monofilament gillnets and longlines). Between 1994 and 1999, large reductions were observed in the amount of bait straps (77% reduction), lobster bait baskets/buckets (86% reduction), nets/ropes (62% reduction) and floats/buoys (83% reduction). Significantly

  20. Monitoring and adaptive resistance management in Australia for Bt-cotton: current status and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rod; Olsen, Karen

    2007-07-01

    In the mid-1990 s the Australian Cotton industry adopted an insect-resistant variety of cotton (Ingard) which expresses the Bt toxin Cry1Ac that is specific to a group of insects including the target Helicoverpa armigera. A conservative resistance management plan (RMP), that restricted the area planted to Ingard, was implemented to preserve the efficacy of Cry1Ac until two-gene transgenic cotton was available. In 2004/05 Bollgard II replaced Ingard as the transgenic cotton available in Australia. It improves on Ingard by incorporating an additional insecticidal protein (Cry2Ab). If an appropriate refuge is grown, there is no restriction on the area planted to Bollgard II. In 2004/05 and 2005/06 the Bollgard II acreage represented approximately 80 of the total area planted to cotton in Australia. The sensitivity of field-collected populations of H. armigera to Bt products was assayed before and subsequent to the widespread deployment of Ingard cotton. In 2002 screens against Cry2Ab were developed in preparation for replacement of Ingard with Bollgard II. There have been no reported field failures of Bollgard II due to resistance. However, while alleles that confer resistance to H. armigera in the field are rare for Cry1Ac, they are surprisingly common for Cry2Ab. We present an overview of the current approach adopted in Australia to monitor and adaptively manage resistance to Bt-cotton in field populations of H. armigera and discuss the implications of our findings to date. We also highlight future challenges for resistance management in Australia, many of which extend to other Bt-crop and pest systems. PMID:17470372

  1. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  2. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    PubMed

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

  3. Predicting asthma exacerbations employing remotely monitored adherence.

    PubMed

    Killane, Isabelle; Sulaiman, Imran; MacHale, Elaine; Breathnach, Aoife; Taylor, Terence E; Holmes, Martin S; Reilly, Richard B; Costello, Richard W

    2016-03-01

    This Letter investigated the efficacy of a decision-support system, designed for respiratory medicine, at predicting asthma exacerbations in a multi-site longitudinal randomised control trial. Adherence to inhaler medication was acquired over 3 months from patients with asthma employing a dose counter and a remote monitoring adherence device which recorded participant's inhaler use: n = 184 (23,656 audio files), 61% women, age (mean ± sd) 49.3 ± 16.4. Data on occurrence of exacerbations was collected at three clinical visits, 1 month apart. The relative risk of an asthma exacerbation for those with good and poor adherence was examined employing a univariate and multivariate modified Poisson regression approach; adjusting for age, gender and body mass index. For all months dose counter adherence was significantly (p < 0.01) higher than remote monitoring adherence. Overall, those with poor adherence had a 1.38 ± 0.34 and 1.42 ± 0.39 (remotely monitored) and 1.25 ± 0.32 and 1.18 ± 0.31 (dose counter) higher relative risk of an exacerbation in model 1 and model 2, respectively. However, this was not found to be statistically significantly different. Remotely monitored adherence holds important clinical information and future research should focus on refining adherence and exacerbation measures. Decision-support systems based on remote monitoring may enhance patient-physician communication, possibly reducing preventable adverse events. PMID:27222733

  4. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  5. Predictive risk modelling in health: options for New Zealand and Australia.

    PubMed

    Panattoni, Laura E; Vaithianathan, Rhema; Ashton, Toni; Lewis, Geraint H

    2011-02-01

    Predictive risk models (PRMs) are case-finding tools that enable health care systems to identify patients at risk of expensive and potentially avoidable events such as emergency hospitalisation. Examples include the PARR (Patients-at-Risk-of-Rehospitalisation) tool and Combined Predictive Model used by the National Health Service in England. When such models are coupled with an appropriate preventive intervention designed to avert the adverse event, they represent a useful strategy for improving the cost-effectiveness of preventive health care. This article reviews the current knowledge about PRMs and explores some of the issues surrounding the potential introduction of a PRM to a public health system. We make a particular case for New Zealand, but also consider issues that are relevant to Australia. PMID:21367330

  6. Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Thai, Phong K; Lai, Foon Yin; Edirisinghe, Methsiri; Hall, Wayne; Bruno, Raimondo; O'Brien, Jake W; Prichard, Jeremy; Kirkbride, K Paul; Mueller, Jochen F

    2016-03-01

    Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population. PMID:26747989

  7. Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

    2016-07-01

    Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

  8. Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

    2015-05-01

    Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

  9. A future geodetic monitoring system for vertical land motion in the Perth basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filmer, Mick; Featherstone, Will; Morgan, Linda; Schenk, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    SAR imagery. The InSAR component is necessary to avoid reliance on discrete monitoring stations and to provide larger scale mapping of the subsidence. As the framework for an ongoing monitoring programme, images are being acquired from the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR's) TerraSAR-X satellite mission under a collaborative science project among Geoscience Australia, Curtin University of Technology, Landgate and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. This programme initially covers ~13 months (up to 30 images) and will provide sufficient data to lay the foundation for ongoing monitoring. This monitoring programme will be used to determine linear and non-linear VLM in Perth at time scales ranging from seasonal to long term over multiple years.

  10. Are High-Impact Species Predictable? An Analysis of Naturalised Grasses in Northern Australia

    PubMed Central

    van Klinken, Rieks D.; Panetta, F. Dane; Coutts, Shaun R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of

  11. Validation of satellite-based operational flood monitoring in Southern Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouweleeuw, Ben; Ticehurst, Catherine; Lerat, Julien; Thew, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The integration of remote sensing observations with stage data and flood modeling has the potential to provide improved support to a number of disciplines, such as flood warning emergency response and operational water resources management. The ability of remote sensing technology to monitor the dynamics of hydrological events lies in its capacity to map surface water. For flood monitoring, remote sensing imagery needs to be available sufficiently frequently to capture subsequent inundation stages. MODIS optical data are available at a moderately high spatial and temporal resolution (250m-1km, twice daily), but are affected by cloud cover. AMSR-E passive microwave observations are available at comparable temporal resolution, but coarse spatial resolution (5-70km), where the smaller footprints corresponds with the higher frequency bands, which are affected by precipitating clouds. A novel operational technique to monitor flood extent combines MODIS reflectance and AMSR-E passive microwave imagery to optimize data continuity. Flood extent is subsequently combined with a DEM to obtain total flood water volume. The flood extent and volume product is operational for the lower-Balonne floodplain in Southern Queensland, Australia. For validation purposes, two moderate flood events coinciding with the MODIS and AMSR-E sensor lifetime are evaluated. The flood volume estimated from MODIS/AMSR-E images gives an accurate indication of both the timing and the magnitude of the flood peak compared to the net volume from recorded flow. In the flood recession, however, satellite-derived water volume declines rapidly, while the net flow volume remains level. This may be explained by a combination of ungauged outflows, soil infiltration, evaporation and diversion of flood water into many large open reservoirs for irrigation purposes. The open water storage extent unchanged, the water volume product is not sensitive enough to capture the change in storage water level. Additional

  12. Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Cook, David C.; Liu, Shuang; Edwards, Jacqueline; Villalta, Oscar N.; Aurambout, Jean-Philippe; Kriticos, Darren J.; Drenth, Andre; De Barro, Paul J.

    2012-01-01

    Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response. PMID:22879960

  13. Monitoring Contrasting Land Management in the Savanna Landscapes of Northern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklin, Donald C.; Petty, Aaron M.; Williamson, Grant J.; Brook, Barry W.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2008-04-01

    We compared measures of ecosystem state across six adjacent land-tenure groups in the intact tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. Tenure groups include two managed by Aboriginal owners, two national parks, a cluster of pastoral leases, and a military training area. This information is of relevance to the debate about the role of indigenous lands in the Australian conservation estate. The timing and frequency of fire was determined by satellite imagery; the biomass and composition of the herb-layer and the abundance of large feral herbivores by field surveys; and weediness by analysis of a Herbarium database. European tenures varied greatly in fire frequencies but were consistently burnt earlier in the dry season than the two Aboriginal tenures, the latter having intermediate fire frequencies. Weeds were more frequent in the European tenures, whilst feral animals were most abundant in the Aboriginal tenures. This variation strongly implies a signature of current management and/or recent environmental history. We identify indices suitable for monitoring of management outcomes in an extensive and sparsely populated landscape. Aboriginal land offers a unique opportunity for the conservation of biodiversity through the maintenance of traditional fire regimes. However, without financial support, traditional practices may prove unsustainable both economically and because exotic weeds and feral animals will alter fire regimes. An additional return on investment in Aboriginal land management is likely to be improved livelihoods and health outcomes for these disadvantaged communities.

  14. Radon monitoring and hazard prediction in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elio, Javier; Crowley, Quentin; Scanlon, Ray; Hodgson, Jim; Cooper, Mark; Long, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas which forms as a decay product from uranium. It is the largest source of natural ionizing radiation affecting the global population. When radon is inhaled, its short-lived decay products can interact with lung tissue leading to DNA damage and development of lung cancer. Ireland has among the highest levels of radon in Europe and eighth highest of an OECD survey of 29 countries. Every year some two hundred and fifty cases of lung cancer in Ireland are linked to radon exposure. This new research project will build upon previous efforts of radon monitoring in Ireland to construct a high-resolution radon hazard map. This will be achieved using recently available high-resolution airborne gamma-ray spectrometry (radiometric) and soil geochemistry data (http://www.tellus.ie/), indoor radon concentrations (http://www.epa.ie/radiation), and new direct measurement of soil radon. In this regard, legacy indoor radon concentrations will be correlated with soil U and Th concentrations and other geogenic data. This is a new approach since the vast majority of countries with a national radon monitoring programme rely on indoor radon measurements, or have a spatially limited dataset of soil radon measurements. Careful attention will be given to areas where an indicative high radon hazard based on geogenic factors does not match high indoor radon concentrations. Where such areas exist, it may imply that some parameter(s) in the predictive model does not match that of the environment. These areas will be subjected to measurement of radon soil gas using a combination of time averaged (passive) and time dependant (active) measurements in order to better understand factors affecting production, transport and accumulation of radon in the natural environment. Such mapping of radon-prone areas will ultimately help to inform when prevention and remediation measures are necessary, reducing the radon exposure of the population. Therefore, given

  15. Real Time Monitoring of an Injection Test for an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir, Paralana, South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peacock, J.; Thiel, S.; Heinson, G. S.; Reid, P.

    2011-12-01

    Real-time monitoring of changes in subsurface material properties proves valuable in many geophysical aplications where fluids are present, including ground water, geothermal, CO2 sequestration, unconventional gas, and more. Reservoir stimulation typically includes pumping high pressure fluids into tight lithology with the intention of creating or extending the reservior. Unfortunately, the fracturing process and reservoir extension is not always predictable. Therefore, real time monitoring needs to be employed to better understand the system. Electromagnetic methods can exploit the large dynamic range of electrical conductivity from the surface, specifically the magnetotelluric (MT) can measure conductivity contrasts as a function of depth and time. Presented is an example of real-time monitoring of an enhanced geothermal system injection test at around 4~km depth using 11 MT stations with a remote reference. Its found that changes in the MT response are small, on the order of a few percent, but correlate with earthquake clusters measured by a micro-seismic array.

  16. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  17. Predicting Cereal Root Disease in Western Australia Using Soil DNA and Environmental Parameters.

    PubMed

    Poole, Grant J; Harries, Martin; Hüberli, D; Miyan, S; MacLeod, W J; Lawes, Roger; McKay, A

    2015-08-01

    Root diseases have long been prevalent in Australian grain-growing regions, and most management decisions to reduce the risk of yield loss need to be implemented before the crop is sown. The levels of pathogens that cause the major root diseases can be measured using DNA-based services such as PreDicta B. Although these pathogens are often studied individually, in the field they often occur as mixed populations and their combined effect on crop production is likely to vary across diverse cropping environments. A 3-year survey was conducted covering most cropping regions in Western Australia, utilizing PreDicta B to determine soilborne pathogen levels and visual assessments to score root health and incidence of individual crop root diseases caused by the major root pathogens, including Rhizoctonia solani (anastomosis group [AG]-8), Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici (take-all), Fusarium pseudograminearum, and Pratylenchus spp. (root-lesion nematodes) on wheat roots for 115, 50, and 94 fields during 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. A predictive model was developed for root health utilizing autumn and summer rainfall and soil temperature parameters. The model showed that pathogen DNA explained 16, 5, and 2% of the variation in root health whereas environmental parameters explained 22, 11, and 1% of the variation in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. Results showed that R. solani AG-8 soil pathogen DNA, environmental soil temperature, and rainfall parameters explained most of the variation in the root health. This research shows that interactions between environment and pathogen levels before seeding can be utilized in predictive models to improve assessment of risk from root diseases to assist growers to plan more profitable cropping programs. PMID:25822184

  18. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations the CSIRO (Australia) monitoring program from aircraft 1972 - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Beardsmore, D.J.; Pearman, G.I.

    1984-09-01

    Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations were measured in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Australia-New Zealand region and as far south as Antarctica for the period 1972-1981. The samples were collected from aircraft over a large range of latitudes and altitudes. The sampling program has been based on the cooperation of the Australia Department of Transport, Quantas Airways, Trans Australia Airlines, the United States, New Zealand and Australian Air Forces and occasional chartering of light aircraft for special purposes.

  19. A model to predict CWD residence times in tropical forests along an altitudinal gradient in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torello-Raventos, Mireia; Ford, Andrew; Saiz, Gus; Bloomfield, Keith; Lloyd, Jon; Bird, Michael

    2014-05-01

    More reliable knowledge on the complex responses of vegetation to climate change is one of the most urgent needs for tropical forest preservation and recent data models indicate an increase of tree mortality in tropical forests as a consequence of climate change1. Coarse woody debris dynamics in tropical forests remain poorly understood2. Tropical forests are known for possessing a wide range of wood densities- with different wood traits and secondary wood chemical components-, adding complexity to the accurate estimations of coarse woody debris residence times (τ). Quantifying τ in these ecosystems along an altitudinal gradient provides a way to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics in the face of climate change. This study examines τ from different tree tropical forest species -ranging from soft to hardwoods- and under different decay status, to understand the effects of climate on the chemical and physical decay of CWD on an elevation gradient from 102 m above sea level (MAT = 23.7° C) to 1500 m above sea level (MAT = 16.7° C) in Australia. Wood density together with Carbon:Nitrogen ratio enabled prediction of the variation in τ between decay classes within tree species, between tree species and along the elevation gradient. τ increased with decreasing the decay status, increasing wood density and temperature also played an important role as τ increased with increasing site elevation. The study also highlighted the importance of including seasonal variation of climate in short term field studies, as a single wet season reduced the τ of the CWD compared to τ after a year of exposure. Intraspecific variation of plant traits and secondary wood chemicals explained the observed range in τ for species with similar wood densities, decreasing with increasing decayed status of the samples. This study will aid in the development of predictive relationships between wood density and environmental variables to infer carbon dynamics at local and global scale

  20. Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

  1. Developing a new Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA-3.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Xiaobing; Alves, Oscar; Okely, Patricia; Tseitkin, Faina; Marshall, Andrew; Luo, Jing-Jia; Hudson, Debra; Zhao, Maggie; Yin, Yonghong; Hendon, Harry

    2013-04-01

    The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is a state-of-the-art intra-seasonal to seasonal forecast system based on a coupled climate model and ocean/atmosphere/land observations assimilation system. Several versions of the POAMA system have been developed over the past decade, including 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.4. The development of a new POAMA system, POAMA-3.0, is currently underway. The model components in POAMA-3.0 are totally different from its previous versions. The POAMA-3.0 model is based on ACCESS-1.3 coupled model (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator) developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR). The ACCESS-1.3 model is comprised of the UK Met Office atmospheric model UM7.3, GFDL ocean model MOM4p1, Los Alamos sea ice model CICE4.1, the Australian land model CABLE1.8 and the CERFACS coupler OASIS3.25. The model configuration used for seasonal forecasting has some different configurations compared to the model used for the IPCC AR5 contributions in several aspects, such as an improved shortwave penetration scheme in the ocean model, enhanced entrainment and detrainment rates in deep convection, an improved cloud overlap scheme and better representation of the boundary layer in the atmospheric model. A 100-yr run is conducted and the model's biases and interannual variability are validated. At the current stage of POAMA-3.0 development, a simple data assimilation approach is applied to produce initial conditions for intra-seasonal/seasonal forecasts during the period of 1980-2010. The atmospheric model is nudged to ECMWF ERA-interim data and the ocean model is driven by the surface fluxes while the atmosphere is being nudged. Seasonal hindcasts are performed during the period 1982-2010 and each hindcast goes out to lead time of 5 months. The prediction skill for El Nino indices, Indian Ocean dipole, Madden-Julian Oscillation and Australian rainfall are evaluated. The retrospective results of

  2. Time-lapse Geophysical Monitoring of the Subsurface Hydrology at Kings Park, Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adekoya, Tunde; McGrath, Gavan; Leopold, Matthias; Shragge, Jeffrey; Challis, Anthea; Stevens, Jason; Miller, Ben

    2015-04-01

    The increasing occurrence of drought stress throughout Southwestern Western Australia is postulated to have contributed to the decline of Banksia populations both in Kings Park, Perth, and in the Banksia woodlands in the greater Swan Coastal Plain region. To help quantify these assertions, there is an urgent need to better understand the base levels of soil moisture content - as well as seasonal variations thereof - in these geographical regions. We conducted time-lapse (TL) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods on a monthly basis (May-August 2014). In addition, at each site we hand-augured test holes to a depth of 3-4 m and collected samples at 20-cm intervals to enable grain-size analysis, soil moisture content and water retention tests. PR2 capacitance probe measurements were also acquired when augering to enable a moisture content comparison study. The acquired TL ERT datasets were inverted using 2D EarthImager software and the temporal variations in resistivity were interpreted in terms of changes in moisture content. The TL ERT data reveal significant calendar variations in the spatial distribution of moisture content. The TL ERT inversions also detected isolated less resistive lithologies and the depth to groundwater. Processed TL GPR data were interpreted to show vertical variations in the vadose zone moisture content. The water content variations were consistent with the rainfall data. The grain-size distributions of the samples were analysed statistically. The apparent resistivity values from the analysed samples and observed volumetric water content are strongly correlated (R2=0.84) as may be expected from Archie's law. Soil moisture content analysis results including the PR2 probe measurements were plotted as a function of depth, the result shows vertical variations in moisture content with depth. The hydrological tests indicated the properties of the subsurface lithologies and confirm the responses of the

  3. Monitoring International Interest in Transnational Academic Mobility to Australia: A Mixed-Method Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, John L.

    2013-01-01

    In a recent study, the issue of transnational academic mobility of academic staff, considering moves to higher education institutions in Australia, was examined using a web-based portal that attracted interested parties from around the world with information about Australian academic career opportunities. Web analytics were used as the research…

  4. Monitoring and modelling walking track impacts in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Grant; Hawes, Martin; McPherson, Glen

    2004-07-01

    A program has been developed for monitoring the condition of unimproved walking tracks on a 1000-km track system in Western Tasmania, and it has been used as the basis of an eight-year study of track-impact development. The monitoring technique involves measuring track depth and two track-width indicators at permanently marked and widely dispersed sites, each site comprising ten transects located at 2-m intervals. Sites have been 'typed' on the basis of track slope, drainage and substrate characteristics, and the typing scheme has been tested and refined by assessing the relationship between type-usage groups and observed impacts. Analysis reveals that track depth and rates of erosion are strongly influenced by track type and to a lesser extent by usage, while track width is influenced mainly by usage and track bogginess. The time-invariant variable 'usage gradient' was introduced to compensate for the fact that usage levels on most walking tracks in Western Tasmania have varied over time. Data derived from multiple inspections at 2-3 year intervals since 1994 from over 250 sites have been used to derive impact/time curves for different type-'usage gradient' groups. Each of the impact variables can be approximated by the formula m = alphatBeta, where m is the expected value of the impact variable, t is chronological time, and alpha and Beta are constants characteristic of the impact variable and type-'usage gradient' group in question. The typing scheme and impact-development model have the potential to be used for systematically describing and predicting impacts over extensive systems of 'typed' tracks. The implications of these findings for the ongoing monitoring, sitting and management of walking tracks are discussed. PMID:15217719

  5. Micro-Seismic Monitoring During Stimulation at Paralana-2 South Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasting, M. A.; Albaric, J.; Oye, V.; Reid, P.; Messeiller, M.; Llanos, E.

    2011-12-01

    In 2009 the Paralana JV, drilled the Paralana-2 (P2) Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) borehole east of the Flinders Range in South Australia. Drilling started on 30 Jun and reached a total depth of 4,003m (G.L AHD) on 9 Nov. A 7- inch casing was set and cemented to a depth of 3,725m and P2 was officially completed on the 9th Dec 2009. On 2 Jan 2011 a six meter zone was perforated between 3,679 and 3,685mRT. A stimulation of P2 was carried out on 3 Jan by injecting approximately 14,668l of fluid at pressure of up to 8.7kpsi and various rates up to 2bpm. During the stimulation 125 micro-earthquakes (MEQ) were triggered in the formation. Most MEQ events occurred in an area about 100m wide and 220m deep at an average depth of 3,850m. The largest event, ML1.4, occurred after the shut-in. Between 11 and 15 July 2011, the main fracture stimulation was carried out with ~3M litres injected at pressures up to 9kpsi and rates up to 10bpm. Over 10,000 MEQ were detected by the seismic monitoring network. This network consisted of 12 surface and 8 borehole stations with sensor depths of 40m, 200m and 1,800m. Four accelerometers were also installed to record ground motions near key facilities in the case of a larger seismic event. MEQ were automatically triggered and located in near-real-time with the software MIMO provided by NORSAR. A traffic light system was in operation and none of the detected events came close to the threshold value. More than 1/2 of the detected events could be processed and located reliably in the full automatic mode. Selected MEQ events were manually picked on site in order to improve the location accuracy. A total of 1,875 events were located to form the final picture of the stimulation fracture. Results show that fracturing occurred in three swarms. The 1st swarm occurs near the well and deepened with time from 3.7km to over 4.1km. The 2nd swarm occurred a few days in and shows as a circular patch extending a few hundred meters east of the 1st one. The

  6. Epsilon Aur monitoring during predicted pulsation phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waagen, Elizabeth O.; Templeton, Matthew R.

    2014-09-01

    Dr. Robert Stencel (University of Denver Astronomy Program) has requested that AAVSO observers monitor epsilon Aurigae from now through the end of the observing season. "Studies of the long-term, out-of-eclipse photometry of this enigmatic binary suggest that intervals of coherent pulsation occur at roughly 1/3 of the 27.1-year orbital period. Kloppenborg, et al. noted that stable variation patterns develop at 3,200-day intervals' implying that 'the next span of dates when such events might happen are circa JD ~2457000 (2014 December)'. "These out-of-eclipse light variations often have amplitudes of ~0.1 magnitude in U, and ~0.05 in V, with characteristic timescales of 60-100 days. The AAVSO light curve data to the present may indicate that this coherent phenomenon has begun, but we encourage renewed efforts by observers...to help deduce whether these events are internal to the F star, or externally-driven by tidal interaction with the companion star." Nightly observations or one observation every few days (CCD/PEP/DSLR, VUBR (amplitude too small for visual)) are requested. Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (http://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. Epsilon Aur was the subject of major international campaigns and the AAVSO's Citizen Sky project as it went through its 27.1-year eclipse in 2009-2011. Over 700 observers worldwide submitted over 20,000 multicolor observations to the AAVSO International Database for this project. Much information on eps Aur is available from the AAVSO, including material on the Citizen Sky website (http://www.aavso.org/epsilon-aurigae and http://www.citizensky.org/content/star-our-project). The Journal of the AAVSO, Volume 40, No. 2 (2012) was devoted to discussion of and research results from this event. See full Alert Notice for more details and observations.

  7. The Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network: Supporting CEOP, GEWEX and Hydrological Research in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellett, K. M.; Western, A. W.; Walker, J. P.; Sirawardena, L.; Young, R. I.; Smith, A. B.; Flint, A. L.; Summerell, G.

    2006-12-01

    In 2001 a network of 18 soil moisture monitoring sites were installed across the 80,000 square km Murrumbidgee River catchment in Australia with the aim of evaluating the land surface component of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational weather forecasting model. Since that time the Murrumbidgee Monitoring Network (MMN) has evolved to include 46 sites for continuous measurement of root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature and precipitation, as well as observations of deep soil moisture and ground water variability. Much of these data will soon be incorporated into the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) database (www.ceop.net) marking a substantial new contribution from the Australian continent. This paper provides an overview of the MMN and presents current results from applications in a number of regional-scale research projects including the Murray-Darling Basin GEWEX study and the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE'06) aimed at improving the retrieval of soil moisture and vegetation parameters from airborne and satellite platforms. The MMN also plays an integral role in the HYDROGRACE project with the objectives of (1) providing the first in-situ based validation of terrestrial water storage observations from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission and (2) improving regional-scale model simulations through data assimilation of GRACE observations. The MMN is part of the broader OzNet hydrological monitoring network throughout eastern Australia. Details on OzNet and the projects mentioned above are provided at www.oznet.unimelb.edu.au.

  8. Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Tom; Beaman, Robin; Done, Terry; Webster, Jody

    2012-01-01

    Aim Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef. Location Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Methods Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR. Results Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs. Main Conclusion Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used

  9. Social/Ethical Issues in Predictive Insider Threat Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Zabriskie, Mariah

    2011-01-01

    Combining traditionally monitored cybersecurity data with other kinds of organizational data is one option for inferring the motivations of individuals, which may in turn allow early prediction and mitigation of insider threats. While unproven, some researchers believe that this combination of data may yield better results than either cybersecurity or organizational data would in isolation. However, this nontraditional approach creates a potential conflict between goals, such as conflicts between organizational security improvements and individual privacy considerations. There are many facets to debate. Should warning signs of a potential malicious insider be addressed before a malicious event has occurred to prevent harm to the organization and discourage the insider from violating the organization’s rules? Would intervention violate employee trust or legal guidelines? What about the possibilities of misuse? Predictive approaches cannot be validated a priori; false accusations can affect the career of the accused; and collection/monitoring of certain types of data may affect employee morale. In this chapter, we explore some of the social and ethical issues stemming from predictive insider threat monitoring and discuss ways that a predictive modeling approach brings to the forefront social and ethical issues that should be considered and resolved by stakeholders and communities of interest.

  10. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  11. Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the prediction of monthly Effective Drought Index in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-02-01

    The prediction of future drought is an effective mitigation tool for assessing adverse consequences of drought events on vital water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology. Data-driven model predictions using machine learning algorithms are promising tenets for these purposes as they require less developmental time, minimal inputs and are relatively less complex than the dynamic or physical model. This paper authenticates a computationally simple, fast and efficient non-linear algorithm known as extreme learning machine (ELM) for the prediction of Effective Drought Index (EDI) in eastern Australia using input data trained from 1957-2008 and the monthly EDI predicted over the period 2009-2011. The predictive variables for the ELM model were the rainfall and mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures, supplemented by the large-scale climate mode indices of interest as regression covariates, namely the Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole moment. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven model a performance comparison in terms of the prediction capabilities and learning speeds was conducted between the proposed ELM algorithm and the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm trained with Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation. The prediction metrics certified an excellent performance of the ELM over the ANN model for the overall test sites, thus yielding Mean Absolute Errors, Root-Mean Square Errors, Coefficients of Determination and Willmott's Indices of Agreement of 0.277, 0.008, 0.892 and 0.93 (for ELM) and 0.602, 0.172, 0.578 and 0.92 (for ANN) models. Moreover, the ELM model was executed with learning speed 32 times faster and training speed 6.1 times faster than the ANN model. An improvement in the prediction capability of the drought duration and severity by the ELM model was achieved. Based on these results we aver that out of the two machine learning

  12. Water utilization, evapotranspiration and soil moisture monitoring in the south east region of south Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccloy, K. R.; Shepherd, K. J.; Mcintosh, G. F. (Principal Investigator)

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. It was established that reliable estimates of sand and coastal scrub areas can be determined from LANDSAT image classification by the Vec classifier more economically than by conventional means from a map of the coastal zone produced by photointerpretation using 1:10,000 aerial photography. Current LANDSAT imagery is also suitable for monitoring for large scale storm damage to the zone, but the normal change in sand areas extent due to man's activity or other reasons, is about 5 to 10 m per year, occasionally being as great as 30 m per year, so that it is considered that LANDSAT D will have the resolution necessary to monitor these changes but not current imagery.

  13. Field Validation of a Transcriptional Assay for the Prediction of Age of Uncaged Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes in Northern Australia

    PubMed Central

    Hugo, Leon E.; Cook, Peter E.; Johnson, Petrina H.; Rapley, Luke P.; Kay, Brian H.; Ryan, Peter A.; Ritchie, Scott A.; O'Neill, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    Background New strategies to eliminate dengue have been proposed that specifically target older Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the proportion of the vector population that is potentially capable of transmitting dengue viruses. Evaluation of these strategies will require accurate and high-throughput methods of predicting mosquito age. We previously developed an age prediction assay for individual Ae. aegypti females based on the transcriptional profiles of a selection of age responsive genes. Here we conducted field testing of the method on Ae. aegypti that were entirely uncaged and free to engage in natural behavior. Methodology/Principal Findings We produced “free-range” test specimens by releasing 8007 adult Ae. aegypti inside and around an isolated homestead in north Queensland, Australia, and recapturing females at two day intervals. We applied a TaqMan probe-based assay design that enabled high-throughput quantitative RT-PCR of four transcripts from three age-responsive genes and a reference gene. An age prediction model was calibrated on mosquitoes maintained in small sentinel cages, in which 68.8% of the variance in gene transcription measures was explained by age. The model was then used to predict the ages of the free-range females. The relationship between the predicted and actual ages achieved an R2 value of 0.62 for predictions of females up to 29 days old. Transcriptional profiles and age predictions were not affected by physiological variation associated with the blood feeding/egg development cycle and we show that the age grading method could be applied to differentiate between two populations of mosquitoes having a two-fold difference in mean life expectancy. Conclusions/Significance The transcriptional profiles of age responsive genes facilitated age estimates of near-wild Ae. aegypti females. Our age prediction assay for Ae. aegypti provides a useful tool for the evaluation of mosquito control interventions against dengue where mosquito

  14. Imaging proteomics for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Nazeri, Arash; Ganjgahi, Habib; Roostaei, Tina; Nichols, Thomas; Zarei, Mojtaba

    2014-11-15

    Proteomic and imaging markers have been widely studied as potential biomarkers for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease. In this study, we used Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and performed parallel independent component analysis on cross sectional and longitudinal proteomic and imaging data in order to identify the best proteomic model for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD). We used plasma proteins measurement and imaging data from AD and healthy controls (HC) at the baseline and 1 year follow-up. Group comparisons at baseline and changes over 1 year were calculated for proteomic and imaging data. The results were fed into parallel independent component analysis in order to identify proteins that were associated with structural brain changes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Regression model was used to find the best model that can discriminate AD from HC, monitor AD and to predict MCI converters from non-converters. We showed that five proteins are associated with structural brain changes in the brain. These proteins could discriminate AD from HC with 57% specificity and 89% sensitivity. Four proteins whose change over 1 year were associated with brain structural changes could discriminate AD from HC with sensitivity of 93%, and specificity of 92%. This model predicted MCI conversion to AD in 2 years with 94% accuracy. This model has the highest accuracy in prediction of MCI conversion to AD within the ADNI-1 dataset. This study shows that combination of selected plasma protein levels and MR imaging is a useful method in identifying potential biomarker. PMID:25173418

  15. Climate Predictions Accelerate Decline for Threatened Macrozamia Cycads from Queensland, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Laidlaw, Melinda J.; Forster, Paul I.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes. PMID:24832522

  16. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  17. Monitoring of wild birds for Newcastle disease virus in north Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Hoque, M A; Burgess, G W; Karo-Karo, D; Cheam, A L; Skerratt, L F

    2012-01-01

    surveillance programs for NDVs in northern Australia. PMID:21945812

  18. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    PubMed

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  19. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  20. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  1. Causal simulation and sensor planning in predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.

    1989-01-01

    Two issues are addressed which arise in the task of detecting anomalous behavior in complex systems with numerous sensor channels: how to adjust alarm thresholds dynamically, within the changing operating context of the system, and how to utilize sensors selectively, so that nominal operation can be verified reliably without processing a prohibitive amount of sensor data. The approach involves simulation of a causal model of the system, which provides information on expected sensor values, and on dependencies between predicted events, useful in assessing the relative importance of events so that sensor resources can be allocated effectively. The potential applicability of this work to the execution monitoring of robot task plans is briefly discussed.

  2. Models for predicting enteric methane emissions from dairy cows in North America, Europe, and Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Appuhamy, Jayasooriya A D R N; France, James; Kebreab, Ermias

    2016-09-01

    There are several models in the literature for predicting enteric methane (CH4 ) emissions. These models were often developed on region or country-specific data and may not be able to predict the emissions successfully in every region. The majority of extant models require dry matter intake (DMI) of individual animals, which is not routinely measured. The objectives of this study were to (i) evaluate performance of extant models in predicting enteric CH4 emissions from dairy cows in North America (NA), Europe (EU), and Australia and New Zealand (AUNZ) and (ii) explore the performance using estimated DMI. Forty extant models were challenged on 55, 105, and 52 enteric CH4 measurements (g per lactating cow per day) from NA, EU, and AUNZ, respectively. The models were ranked using root mean square prediction error as a percentage of the average observed value (RMSPE) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A modified model of Nielsen et al. (Acta Agriculturae Scand Section A, 63, 2013 and 126) using DMI, and dietary digestible neutral detergent fiber and fatty acid contents as predictor variables, were ranked highest in NA (RMSPE = 13.1% and CCC = 0.78). The gross energy intake-based model of Yan et al. (Livestock Production Science, 64, 2000 and 253) and the updated IPCC Tier 2 model were ranked highest in EU (RMSPE = 11.0% and CCC = 0.66) and AUNZ (RMSPE = 15.6% and CCC = 0.75), respectively. DMI of cows in NA and EU was estimated satisfactorily with body weight and fat-corrected milk yield data (RMSPE < 12.0% and CCC > 0.60). Using estimated DMI, the Nielsen et al. (2013) (RMSPE = 12.7 and CCC = 0.79) and Yan et al. (2000) (RMSPE = 13.7 and CCC = 0.50) models still predicted emissions in respective regions well. Enteric CH4 emissions from dairy cows can be predicted successfully (i.e., RMSPE < 15%), if DMI can be estimated with reasonable accuracy (i.e., RMSPE < 10%). PMID:27148862

  3. Predicting career development in hard-of-hearing adolescents in Australia.

    PubMed

    Punch, Renée; Creed, Peter A; Hyde, Merv

    2005-01-01

    This article reports on a study investigating the career development of hard-of-hearing high school students attending regular classes with itinerant teacher support. We compared 65 hard-of-hearing students with a matched group of normally hearing peers on measures of career maturity, career indecision, perceived career barriers, and three variables associated with social cognitive career theory career decision-making self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals. In addition, the predictors of career maturity and career indecision were tested in both groups. Results indicated that (a) the two groups did not differ on measures of career maturity, (b) the SCCT variables were less predictive of career behaviors for the hard-of-hearing students than for the normally hearing students, and (c) perceived career barriers related to hearing loss predicted lower scores on career maturity attitude for the hard-of-hearing students. These findings are discussed in the context of career education and counseling interventions that may benefit young people who are hard of hearing. PMID:15778211

  4. Remotely Monitoring Change in Vegetation Cover on the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, in Response to Introduced Rodent Eradication

    PubMed Central

    Lohr, Cheryl; Van Dongen, Ricky; Huntley, Bart; Gibson, Lesley; Morris, Keith

    2014-01-01

    The Montebello archipelago consists of 218 islands; 80 km from the north-west coast of Western Australia. Before 1912 the islands had a diverse terrestrial fauna. By 1952 several species were locally extinct. Between 1996 and 2011 rodents and cats were eradicated, and 5 mammal and 2 bird species were translocated to the islands. Monitoring of the broader terrestrial ecosystem over time has been limited. We used 20 dry-season Landsat images from 1988 to 2013 and estimation of green fraction cover in nadir photographs taken at 27 sites within the Montebello islands and six sites on Thevenard Island to assess change in vegetation density over time. Analysis of data averaged across the 26-year period suggests that 719 ha out of 2169 ha have increased in vegetation cover by up to 32%, 955 ha have remained stable and 0.6 ha have declined in vegetation cover. Over 492 ha (22%) had no vegetation cover at any time during the period analysed. Chronological clustering analysis identified two breakpoints in the average vegetation cover data occurring in 1997 and 2003, near the beginning and end of the rodent eradication activities. On many islands vegetation cover was declining prior to 1996 but increased after rodents were eradicated from the islands. Data for North West and Trimouille islands were analysed independently because of the potential confounding effect of native fauna being introduced to these islands. Mala (Lagorchestes hirsutus) and Shark Bay mice (Pseudomys fieldi) both appear to suppress native plant recruitment but not to the same degree as introduced rodents. Future research should assess whether the increase in vegetation cover on the Montebello islands is due to an increase in native or introduced plants. PMID:25436454

  5. Improving Flood Prediction By the Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture in Poorly Monitored Catchments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Crow, W. T.; Su, C. H.; Robertson, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particular, is the assimilation of satellite soil moisture (SM-DA) into rainfall-runoff models. The rationale is that satellite soil moisture (SSM) can be used to correct model soil water states, enabling more accurate prediction of catchment response to precipitation and thus better streamflow. However, there is still no consensus on the most effective SM-DA scheme and how this might depend on catchment scale, climate characteristics, runoff mechanisms, model and SSM products used, etc. In this work, an operational SM-DA scheme was set up in the poorly monitored, large (>40,000 km2), semi-arid Warrego catchment situated in eastern Australia. We assimilated passive and active SSM products into the probability distributed model (PDM) using an ensemble Kalman filter. We explored factors influencing the SM-DA framework, including relatively new techniques to remove model-observation bias, estimate observation errors and represent model errors. Furthermore, we explored the advantages of accounting for the spatial distribution of forcing and channel routing processes within the catchment by implementing and comparing lumped and semi-distributed model setups. Flood prediction is improved by SM-DA (Figure), with a 30% reduction of the average root-mean-squared difference of the ensemble prediction, a 20% reduction of the false alarm ratio and a 40% increase of the ensemble mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. SM-DA skill does not significantly change with different observation error assumptions, but the skill strongly depends on the observational bias correction technique used, and more importantly, on the performance of the open-loop model before assimilation. Our findings imply that proper

  6. Assessing the repeatability of terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring gully topography: A case study from Aratula, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, Nicholas Robert; Armston, John; Stiller, Isaac; Muir, Jasmine

    2016-06-01

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technology is a powerful tool for quantifying gully morphology and monitoring change over time. This is due to the high sampling density, sub-centimetre positional accuracies (x, y, z), flexibility of survey configurations and ability to link multiple TLS scans together. However, to ensure correct interpretation of results, research is needed to test the repeatability of TLS derived products to quantify the accuracy and separate 'false' from 'true' geomorphic change. In this study, we use the RIEGL VZ400 scanner to test the repeatability of TLS datasets for mapping gully morphology. We then quantify change following a rainfall event of approximately 100 mm. Our study site, located in south-east Queensland, Australia was chosen to be challenging from a repeatability perspective with high topographic variability. The TLS data capture involved three sets of linked scans: one survey pre-rainfall, to be compared to two surveys post-rainfall acquired on consecutive days. Change is considered negligible in the two post-rainfall scans to test survey repeatability. To verify TLS accuracy, an independent dataset of gully extent and spot heights were acquired using traditional total station techniques. Results confirm that the TLS datasets can be registered multi-temporally at sub-centimetre levels of accuracy in three dimensions. Total station and TLS elevation samples showed strong agreement with a mean error and standard deviation (SD) of residuals equal to 0.052 and 0.047 m, respectively (n = 889). Significantly, our repeatability tests found that return type and pulse deviation influence the accuracy and repeatability of DEMs in gully environments. Analysis of consecutive day datasets showed that DEMs derived from first return data recorded 40% higher SD of residual error than DEMs using multiple return data. A significant empirical relationship between pulse deviation and the variance of residuals for repeat DEMs is also shown (r2 = 0

  7. Ischemic placental syndrome - prediction and new disease monitoring.

    PubMed

    Kwiatkowski, Sebastian; Kwiatkowska, Ewa; Rzepka, Rafał; Torbe, Andrzej; Dolegowska, Barbara

    2016-06-01

    The last decade has seen an improved understanding of the cause of the development of pathologies such as gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, intrauterine fetal death or placental abruption. Nowadays, we know that most conditions within this group share the same pathogenesis, the cause of which is placental ischemia. The following review is an attempt to propose a new method for prediction, diagnosis and - above all - appropriate monitoring of pregnant women and fetuses developing the ischemic placental syndrome with the use of tests that are new but yet widely available in clinical diagnosis. They are closely related to the condition's pathogenesis, therefore their elevated levels may predate clinical symptoms, and - most importantly - they correlate with syndrome aggravation and the occurrence of complications. Perhaps, the new look will allow us to improve perinatal results by reducing mortality and severe complications in pregnant women and fetal deaths resulting from sudden intrauterine fetal death or placental abruption. PMID:26444581

  8. A novel bridge scour monitoring and prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Michalis, Panagiotis; Zhang, Hanqing

    2015-04-01

    obtaining real time data, via novel electromagnetic sensors monitoring scour depth. Once the model is trained with data representative of the new system, bridge scour prediction can be performed for high/design flows or floods.

  9. Effectiveness of impedance monitoring during radiofrequency ablation for predicting popping

    PubMed Central

    Iida, Hiroya; Aihara, Tsukasa; Ikuta, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    AIM: To retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of impedance monitoring for predicting popping during radiofrequency ablation (RFA) using internally cooled electrodes. METHODS: We reviewed 140 patients (94 males, 46 females; age range 73.0 ± 11.1 year) who underwent RFA between February 2006 and November 2008 with a modified protocol using a limited power delivery rather than a conventional one to avoid popping. All the patients provided their written informed consent, and the study was approved by the institutional review board. Intraprocedural impedances were measured for the study subjects, and the tumors were classified into three types according to the characteristics of their impedance curves: increasing, flat, or decreasing. The tumors were further sorted into seven subtypes (A-G) depending on the curvature of the impedance curve’s increase or decrease. Relative popping rates were determined for the three types and seven subtypes. A chi-square test was performed to estimate statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 148 nodules treated by RFA were analyzed. The study samples included 132 nodules of hepatocellular carcinoma, 14 nodules of metastatic liver cancer, and two nodules of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. The numbers of nodules with each impedance curve type were as follows: 37 increasing-type nodules, 43 flat-type nodules, and 68 decreasing-type nodules. Popping occurrence rates were 24.3%, 46.5% and 64.7%, respectively. Flat-type nodules exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to increasing-type nodules (P = 0.039). Decreasing-type nodules exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to increasing-type nodules (P < 0.0001). Notably, nodules that showed a sharp decrease in impedance in the latter ablation period (subtype E) exhibited a significantly higher rate of popping compared to other subtypes. CONCLUSION: Intraprocedural impedance monitoring can be a useful tool to predict the occurrence of popping

  10. The SupraThermal Ion Monitor for space weather predictions.

    PubMed

    Allegrini, F; Desai, M I; Livi, S; McComas, D J; Ho, G C

    2014-05-01

    Measurement of suprathermal energy ions in the heliosphere has always been challenging because (1) these ions are situated in the energy regime only a few times higher than the solar wind plasma, where intensities are orders of magnitude higher and (2) ion energies are below or close to the threshold of state-of-art solid-state detectors. Suprathermal ions accelerated at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks propagate out ahead of the shocks. These shocks can cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's magnetosphere that can affect spacecraft and ground-based power and communication systems. An instrument with sufficient sensitivity to measure these ions can be used to predict the arrival of the shocks and provide an advance warning for potentially geo-effective space weather. In this paper, we present a novel energy analyzer concept, the Suprathermal Ion Monitor (STIM) that is designed to measure suprathermal ions with high sensitivity. We show results from a laboratory prototype and demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. A list of key performances is given, as well as a discussion of various possible detectors at the back end. STIM is an ideal candidate for a future space weather monitor in orbit upstream of the near-earth environment, for example, around L1. A scaled-down version is suitable for a CubeSat mission. Such a platform allows proofing the concept and demonstrating its performance in the space environment. PMID:24880387

  11. Predictive NO x emission monitoring on board a passenger ferry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, D. A.; Andreasson, K.

    NO x emissions from a medium speed diesel engine on board a servicing passenger ferry have been indirectly measured using a predictive emission monitoring system (PEMS) over a 1-yr period. Conventional NO x measurements were carried out with a continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) at the start of the study to provide historical data for the empirical PEMS function. On three other occasions during the year the CEMS was also used to verify the PEMS and follow any changes in emission signature of the engine. The PEMS consisted of monitoring exhaust O 2 concentrations (in situ electrochemical probe), engine load, combustion air temperature and humidity, and barometric pressure. Practical experiences with the PEMS equipment were positive and measurement data were transferred to a land-based office by using a modem data communication system. The initial PEMS function (PEMS1) gave systematic differences of 1.1-6.9% of the calibration domain (0-1725 ppm) and a relative accuracy of 6.7% when compared with CEMS for whole journeys and varying load situations. Further improvements on the performance could be obtained by updating this function. The calculated yearly emission for a total engine running time of 4618 h was 316 t NO x±38 t and the average NO x emission corrected for ambient conditions 14.3 g kWh corr-1. The exhaust profile of the engine in terms of NO x, CO and CO 2 emissions as determined by CEMS was similar for most of the year. Towards the end of the study period, a significantly lower NO x emission was detected which was probably caused by replacement of fuel injector nozzles. The study suggests that PEMS can be a viable option for continuous, long-term NO x measurements on board ships.

  12. Potential wildlife sentinels for monitoring the endemic spread of human buruli ulcer in South-East australia.

    PubMed

    Carson, Connor; Lavender, Caroline J; Handasyde, Kathrine A; O'Brien, Carolyn R; Hewitt, Nick; Johnson, Paul D R; Fyfe, Janet A M

    2014-01-01

    The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥10(6) organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by

  13. Potential Wildlife Sentinels for Monitoring the Endemic Spread of Human Buruli Ulcer in South-East Australia

    PubMed Central

    Carson, Connor; Lavender, Caroline J.; Handasyde, Kathrine A.; O'Brien, Carolyn R.; Hewitt, Nick; Johnson, Paul D. R.; Fyfe, Janet A. M.

    2014-01-01

    The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥106 organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by which

  14. Is predictive emission monitoring an acceptable low cost alternative to continuous emission monitoring for complying with enhanced monitoring requirements?

    SciTech Connect

    Jernigan, J.R.

    1995-12-01

    Title VII of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (the {open_quotes}Act{close_quotes}) expanded and clarified the Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA) enforcement capabilities under the Act. Section 702 of the 1990 Amendments clarified EPA`s ability to require sources to provide information. Additionally, Section 702(b) required EPA to promulgate rules on enhanced monitoring and compliance certifications by adding a new section 114(a)(3) of the Act which states in part: {open_quotes}The Administrator shall in the case of any person which is the owner or operator of a major stationary source, and any in the case of any other person, require enhanced monitoring and submission of compliance certifications. Compliance certifications shall include (A) identification of the applicable requirement that is the basis of the certification, (B) the method used for determining the compliance status of the source, (C) the compliance status, (D) whether compliance is continuous or intermittent, (E) such other facts as the Administrator may require...{close_quotes} The 1990 Amendments contained several other changes that either relate directly to section 114(a)(3) or provide additional indications of the intent behind the new section. First, section 504(b) of the Amendments permits the Administrator to promulgate appropriate tests methods and monitoring requirements for determining compliance. That section states that {open_quotes}continuous emissions monitoring need not be required if alternative methods are available that provide sufficiently reliable and timely information for determining compliance.{close_quotes} This paper will describe Predictive Emission Systems (PEMS) and how the applications of PEMS may be a low cost, accurate, and acceptable alternative to Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS) for complying with Enhanced Monitoring requirements.

  15. Short range prediction and monitoring of downbursts over Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johny, C. J.; Prasad, V. S.; Singh, S. K.; Basu, Swati

    2016-05-01

    Convective downdraft motions and related outflow wind considered as an eventual source of potential damage which can be more severe in the aviation sector. A great variety of atmospheric environments can produce these downdraft motions. These events are not easily detectable using conventional weather radar or wind shear alert systems, while Doppler radars are useful for identifying these Downbursts. In order to identify the situations that can cause these downdraft events different diagnostic tools are designed. Recently launched Indian satellite INSAT-3D, with atmospheric sounder and imager on board, is capable of identifying regions of downburst occurrence and can help in monitoring them in real time. Some Downburst events reported over different parts of India, during January-April period is investigated using Microburst Wind Speed Potential Index (MWPI) and thermodynamic characteristics derived from the NCMRWF GFS (NGFS) model. An attempt is made to make a short range prediction of these events using MWPI computed from NGFS model forecasts. The results are validated with in-situ observations and also by employing INSAT-3D data and it is shown that the method has a reasonable success. All the investigated downdraft events are associated with the hybrid Microburst environment.

  16. Optimal characterization of pollutant sources in contaminated aquifers by integrating sequential-monitoring-network design and source identification: methodology and an application in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prakash, Om; Datta, Bithin

    2015-09-01

    Often, when pollution is first detected in groundwater, very few spatiotemporal pollutant concentration measurements are available. The contaminant concentration measurement data initially available are generally sparse and insufficient for accurate source characterization. This requires development of a contaminant monitoring plan and its field implementation to collect more data. The location of scientifically chosen monitoring points and the number of measurements are important considerations in improving the source-characterization process, especially in a complex contamination scenario. In order to improve the efficiency of source characterization, a feedback-based methodology is implemented, integrating sequential-monitoring-network design and a source identification method. The simulated annealing (SA) optimization algorithm is used to solve the models for optimal source identification and the monitoring-network-design optimization. This sequence is repeated a few times to improve the accuracy of source characterization. The methodology is based on the premise that concentration measurements from a sequence of implemented monitoring networks provide feedback information on the actual concentration in the site. This additional information, obtained as feedback from monitoring networks designed and implemented based on intermediate source characterization, can result in sequential improvement in the resulting source characterization. The performance of this methodology is evaluated by application to a contaminated aquifer site in New South Wales, Australia, where source location, source-activity initiation time and source-flux (mass per unit time) release history are considered as unknown variables. The performance evaluation results demonstrate potential applicability of the proposed sequential methodology.

  17. A summary of fault modelling and predictive health monitoring of rolling element bearings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Thalji, Idriss; Jantunen, Erkki

    2015-08-01

    The rolling element bearing is one of the most critical components that determine the machinery health and its remaining lifetime in modern production machinery. Robust Predictive Health Monitoring tools are needed to guarantee the healthy state of rolling element bearing s during the operation. A Predictive Health Monitoring tool indicates the upcoming failures which provide sufficient lead time for maintenance planning. The Predictive Health Monitoring tool aims to monitor the deterioration i.e. wear evolution rather than just detecting the defects. The Predictive Health Monitoring procedures contain detection, diagnosis and prognosis analysis, which are required to extract the features related to the faulty rolling element bearing and estimate the remaining useful lifetime. The purpose of this study is to review the Predictive Health Monitoring methods and explore their capabilities, advantages and disadvantage in monitoring rolling element bearings. Therefore, the study provides a critical review of the Predictive Health Monitoring methods of the entire defect evolution process i.e. over the whole lifetime and suggests enhancements for rolling element bearing monitoring.

  18. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K.; Durrant, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia`s most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  19. Application of GNSS-RTK derived topographical maps for rapid environmental monitoring: a case study of Jack Finnery Lake (Perth, Australia).

    PubMed

    Schloderer, Glen; Bingham, Matthew; Awange, Joseph L; Fleming, Kevin M

    2011-09-01

    In environmental monitoring, environmental impact assessments and environmental audits, topographical maps play an essential role in providing a means by which the locations of sampling sites may be selected, in assisting with the interpretation of physical features, and in indicating the impact or potential impact on an area due to changes in the system being monitored (e.g., spatially changing features such as wetlands). Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are hereby presented as a rapid method for monitoring spatial changes to support environmental monitoring decisions and policies. To validate the GNSS-based method, a comparison is made of results from a small-scale topographic survey using radio-based real-time kinematic GNSS (GNSS-RTK) and total station survey methods at Jack Finnery Lake, Perth, Australia. The accuracies achieved by the total station in this study were 2 cm horizontally and 6 cm vertically, while the GNSS-RTK also achieved an accuracy of 2 cm horizontally, but only 28 cm vertically. While the GNSS-RTK measurements were less accurate in the height component compared to those from the total station method, it is still capable of achieving accuracies sufficient for a topographic map at a scale of 1:1,750 that could support environmental monitoring tasks such as identifying spatial changes in small water bodies or wetlands. The time taken to perform the survey using GNSS-RTK, however, was much shorter compared to the total station method, thereby making it quite suitable for monitoring spatial changes within an environmental context, e.g., dynamic mining activities that require rapid surveys and the updating of the monitored data at regular intervals. PMID:21136293

  20. Privatizing Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, M.T.

    1995-07-01

    The sun is setting on Australia`s long tradition of state involvement in business. As part of efforts begun in the late-1980`s to stem the tide of debt rising within Australian federal and state treasuries, government-owned entities are being corporatized and privatized, and private companies are sponsoring a large share of the country`s new infrastructure projects.

  1. The monitoring and prediction of solar particle events--an experience report.

    PubMed

    Heckman, G; Hirman, J; Kunches, J; Balch, C

    1984-01-01

    The routine monitoring and prediction of solar proton events that may be a hazard to personnel and materials in space are a routine service of the Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. The services provided are made available to the space centers in the United States for use in their operations. The real time monitoring consists primarily of Space Environment Monitors on both geosynchronous and polar orbiting weather satellites. The monitoring emphasizes proton fluxes but alpha particles, electrons, and in one case, heavier particles, are included. The predictions are of two types; a general outlook made 1 to 3 days in advance, and specific prediction of event size and probability of occurrence made after a solar flare occurs. The accuracy of the prediction made for solar cycle 21 are assessed. PMID:11539624

  2. FUSE - Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    South Australian Science Teachers Journal, 1974

    1974-01-01

    Announces the establishment of a division of FUSE in Australia, at Sturt College of Advanced Education, for the purpose of disseminating the concept of unified science and to facilitate the development of unified science programs. (BR)

  3. EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

  4. Predicting Activity Energy Expenditure Using the Actical[R] Activity Monitor

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heil, Daniel P.

    2006-01-01

    This study developed algorithms for predicting activity energy expenditure (AEE) in children (n = 24) and adults (n = 24) from the Actical[R] activity monitor. Each participant performed 10 activities (supine resting, three sitting, three house cleaning, and three locomotion) while wearing monitors on the ankle, hip, and wrist; AEE was computed…

  5. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  6. Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Sellers, Suzanne M.; Atkinson, David J.

    1987-01-01

    Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.

  7. Accelerometry-based prediction of movement dynamics for balance monitoring.

    PubMed

    Fuschillo, Valeria Lucia; Bagalà, Fabio; Chiari, Lorenzo; Cappello, Angelo

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a 2D functional evaluation tool for estimating subject-specific body segment parameters, which uses a simple motor task (repeated sit-to-stand, rSTS), recorded with one single-axis accelerometer (SAA) per segment and a force plate (FP). After this preliminary estimation, the accelerometer alone is used to make quasi-real-time predictions of ground reaction force (anterior/posterior, F ( X ), and vertical, F ( Z ), components), center of pressure (CoP) and center of mass (CoM), during rSTS and postural oscillation in the sagittal plane. These predicted dynamic variables, as well as those obtained using anthropometric parameters derived from De Leva, were compared to actual FP outputs in terms of root mean-squared errors (RMSEs). Using De Leva's parameters in place of those estimated, RMSEs increase from 12 to 21 N (F ( X )), from 21 to 24 N (F ( Z )), and from 21.1 to 55.6 mm (CoP) in rSTS; similarly, RMSEs increase from 3.1 to 3.3 N (F ( X )) and from 5.5 to 6.6 mm (CoP) in oscillatory trials. A telescopic inverted pendulum model was adopted to analyze the balance control in rSTS using only predicted CoP and CoM. Results suggest that one SAA per segment is sufficient to predict the dynamics of a biomechanical model of any degrees of freedom. PMID:22802142

  8. Evaluation of Wheat Growth Monitoring Methods Based on Hyperspectral Data of Later Grain Filling and Heading Stages in Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakanishi, T.; Imai, Y.; Morita, T.; Akamatsu, Y.; Odagawa, S.; Takeda, T.; Kashimura, O.

    2012-07-01

    This study estimated the wheat yield, quality, and growth conditions using hyperspectral data of the later grain filling and heading stages. The study area is located in the suburbs of Mullewa, Western Australia. Various data used included spectral reflectance of wheat measured from the ground and those measured using airborne sensors, wheat growth conditions data, such as LAI, SPAD values, and wheat height, and sample analysis data, including biomass, grain nitrogen content rate, leaf nitrogen content rate, and ash content, of the later grain filling and heading stages. This study consisted of (1) selection of estimation items regarding the wheat yield, quality, and growth conditions by correlation analysis of sample data, (2) definition of estimate equations for selected items, (3) verification of estimation accuracy, and (4) development of estimation maps. As a result, head moisture, which is related to the wheat growth conditions, was well estimated using hyperspectral data of the later grain filling stage. At the same time, grain weight, which is related to the wheat yield, and grain nitrogen content rate and ash content, which are related to the wheat quality, were well estimated using hyperspectral data of the heading stage. This study implies that it is possible to visualize the wheat yield, quality, and growth conditions on a regional scale using hyperspectral data.

  9. Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia.

    PubMed

    McNaught, Melinda K; Wylie, F Ross; Harris, Evan J; Alston, Clair L; Burwell, Chris J; Jennings, Craig

    2014-08-01

    In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta. PMID:25195416

  10. In Brief: Unlocking Australia's oil and gas reserves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-11-01

    A collaboration to unlock stranded offshore oil and gas reserves through improved underwater pipeline design was launched in Perth, Australia, on 31 October. Called the Wealth From Oceans National Research Flagship's Collaboration Cluster on Subsea Pipelines, the A$11 million program brings together the research capabilities of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and six universities. With more than 80% of Australia's gas resources likely lying as far as 300 kilometers offshore at a depth greater than 1 kilometer, Flagship director Kate Wilson said that realizing the full potential of these resources requires developing economically viable and environmentally sound transportation technologies. ``Projects will investigate seabed characterization and morphology, structural integrity, pipeline monitoring, geohazards, and full-life reliability. This will involve everything from sophisticated computer modeling and seafloor movement prediction to understanding tsunami effects and exploring the use of autonomous underwater and remotely operated vehicles.''

  11. Continuous metabolic monitoring based on multi-analyte biomarkers to predict exhaustion.

    PubMed

    Kastellorizios, Michail; Burgess, Diane J

    2015-01-01

    This work introduces the concept of multi-analyte biomarkers for continuous metabolic monitoring. The importance of using more than one marker lies in the ability to obtain a holistic understanding of the metabolism. This is showcased for the detection and prediction of exhaustion during intense physical exercise. The findings presented here indicate that when glucose and lactate changes over time are combined into multi-analyte biomarkers, their monitoring trends are more sensitive in the subcutaneous tissue, an implantation-friendly peripheral tissue, compared to the blood. This unexpected observation was confirmed in normal as well as type 1 diabetic rats. This study was designed to be of direct value to continuous monitoring biosensor research, where single analytes are typically monitored. These findings can be implemented in new multi-analyte continuous monitoring technologies for more accurate insulin dosing, as well as for exhaustion prediction studies based on objective data rather than the subject's perception. PMID:26028477

  12. Continuous Metabolic Monitoring Based on Multi-Analyte Biomarkers to Predict Exhaustion

    PubMed Central

    Kastellorizios, Michail; Burgess, Diane J.

    2015-01-01

    This work introduces the concept of multi-analyte biomarkers for continuous metabolic monitoring. The importance of using more than one marker lies in the ability to obtain a holistic understanding of the metabolism. This is showcased for the detection and prediction of exhaustion during intense physical exercise. The findings presented here indicate that when glucose and lactate changes over time are combined into multi-analyte biomarkers, their monitoring trends are more sensitive in the subcutaneous tissue, an implantation-friendly peripheral tissue, compared to the blood. This unexpected observation was confirmed in normal as well as type 1 diabetic rats. This study was designed to be of direct value to continuous monitoring biosensor research, where single analytes are typically monitored. These findings can be implemented in new multi-analyte continuous monitoring technologies for more accurate insulin dosing, as well as for exhaustion prediction studies based on objective data rather than the subject’s perception. PMID:26028477

  13. Predicting and Monitoring Cancer Treatment Response with DW-MRI

    PubMed Central

    Thoeny, Harriet C.; Ross, Brian D.

    2010-01-01

    An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, non-image based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical and laboratory parameters however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of a many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pre-treatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response. PMID:20575076

  14. Coronas-F Orbit Monitoring and Re-Entry Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ivanov, N. M.; Kolyuka, Yu. F.; Afanasieva, T. I.; Gridchina, T. A.

    2007-01-01

    Russian scientific satellite CORONAS-F was launched on July, 31, 2001. The object was inserted in near-circular orbit with the inclination 82.5deg and a mean altitude approx. 520 km. Due to the upper atmosphere drag CORONAS-F was permanently descended and as a result on December, 6, 2005 it has finished the earth-orbital flight, having lifetime in space approx. 4.5 years. The satellite structural features and its flight attitude control led to the significant variations of its ballistic coefficient during the flight. It was a cause of some specific difficulties in the fulfillment of the ballistic and navigation support of this space vehicle flight. Besides the main mission objective CORONAS-F also has been selected by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) as a target object for the next regular international re-entry test campaign on a program of surveillance and re-entry prediction for the hazard space objects within their de-orbiting phases. Spacecraft (S/C) CORONAS-F kept its working state right up to the end of the flight - down to the atmosphere entry. This fact enabled to realization of the additional research experiments, concerning with an estimation of the atmospheric density within the low earth orbits (LEO) of the artificial satellites, and made possible to continue track the S/C during final phase of its flight by means of Russian regular command & tracking system, used for it control. Thus there appeared a unique possibility of using for tracking S/C at its de-orbiting phase not only passive radar facilities, belonging to the space surveillance systems and traditionally used for support of the IADC re-entry test campaigns, but also more precise active trajectory radio-tracking facilities from the ground control complex (GCC) applied for this object. Under the corresponding decision of the Russian side such capability of additional high-precise tracking control of the CORONAS-F flight in this period of time has been implemented

  15. Reducing the predictive uncertainty associated with groundwater management decision-making in the Perth regional aquifer system of Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Perth Regional Aquifer Model (PRAMS) framework has been used for about a decade now to evaluate the potential anthropogenic impacts associated with management decisions that affect Perth's groundwater resources. A great wealth of data, expertise and numerical analysis have gone into the development of PRAMS over the years. However, there has been little quantitative work conducted on systemically addressing the uncertainty in the model's structure and predictions. PRAMS is designed to make a variety of regional and local-scale predictions and, both the nature and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with these predictions can vary significantly. A primary prediction to be addressed using the PRAMS framework, will be the effects of various deep-aquifer groundwater management scenarios on both the environmental and social concerns surrounding the superficial aquifer, which supports sensitive wetlands, and the negative impacts of seawater intrusion into the deep aquifers. A particular model-structure component that greatly affects the predictions associated with deep-aquifer groundwater extraction is the characterization of the local fault structure, i.e., whether or not faults are acting as barriers to groundwater flow. Therefore, uncertainty in fault characterization can subsequently lead to significant predictive uncertainty. However, new observation data can be obtained to reduce this uncertainty. In this study, an experimental design methodology is employed to optimally acquire new observations of state in such a way as to maximize the information obtained about the hydraulic properties of faults. Various information criteria are employed to develop optimal locations of new observation wells. The A-optimality criterion was found to be the most effective for comparing sampling strategies given the design assumptions, which include the parameter sets employed, hydraulic forcing, temporal considerations, and the use of the existing observation network. A

  16. Tectonic events, sequence stratigraphy and prediction of petroleum play elements in the Cretaceous and Tertiary of the northern Carnarvon Basin, north west shelf, Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Romine, K.K. ); Durrant, J.D. )

    1996-01-01

    The Carnarvon Basin is one of Australia's most prolific oil and gas provinces. A recent Paleocene discovery has initiated a shift in exploration interest from traditional Jurassic/Triassic plays to the younger Cretaceous and Tertiary section. To improve play element prediction, a sequence stratigraphic study has been completed, utilizing newly acquired, regional high-resolution seismic data and 80 wells. The occurrence and distribution of the key play elements, reservoir, source and seal, is controlled by the interaction of tectonic subsidence, eustasy and paleogeography, with traps and migration pathways set up and modified by regional tectonic events. For example, a major rifting event commenced in the latest Kimmeridgian-Tithonian that resulted in structuring of older Jurassic sediments and initiation of seafloor spreading in the adjacent Cuvier-Gascoyne Abyssal Plain in the Valanginian. This event was accompanied by a dramatic fall in eustasy that initiated the deposition of high-quality reservoir sandstones of the Tithonian-Valanginian age Barrow Delta. The post-rift phase of thermal cooling and rapid subsidence resulted in transgression, accompanied by deposition of backstepping parasequences of the Mardie Greensand, a potential thief zone and reservoir, and culminated in maximum transgression and deposition of seal and source facies of the Muclerong Shale. The improved sequence stratigraphic framework established in this study provides a predictive tool for the development and assessment of new plays.

  17. Prediction of coronary heart disease mortality in Busselton, Western Australia: an evaluation of the Framingham, national health epidemiologic follow up study, and WHO ERICA risk scores.

    PubMed Central

    Knuiman, M W; Vu, H T

    1997-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the Framingham, national health epidemiologic follow up study, and the WHO ERICA risk scores in predicting death from coronary heart disease (CHD) in an Australian population. DESIGN: Cohort follow up study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The cohort consisted of 1923 men and 1968 women who participated in health surveys in the town of Busselton in Western Australia over the period 1966-81. Baseline assessment included cardiovascular risk factor measurement. Mortality follow up to 31 December 1994 was used. MAIN RESULTS: Risk scores for death from CHD within 10 years based on age, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, and BMI were derived from the Busselton study data using logistic regression analysis. Similar risk scores developed from the Framingham, the national health epidemiologic follow up study, and the WHO ERICA cohorts were found to perform just as well in Busselton as the Busselton-derived scores, both before and after controlling the effect of age. There was considerable overlap across the different risk scores in the identification of individuals in the highest quintile of risk. Those in the top 20% of scores included about 41% of deaths from CHD among men and about 63% of deaths from CHD among women. CONCLUSION: Although there is variation in risk score coefficients across the studies, the relative risk predictive performance of the scores is similar. The use of Framingham and other similar risk scores will not be misleading in white Australian populations. PMID:9425461

  18. Predicting reading outcomes with progress monitoring slopes among middle grade students.

    PubMed

    Tolar, Tammy D; Barth, Amy E; Fletcher, Jack M; Francis, David J; Vaughn, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Effective implementation of response-to-intervention (RTI) frameworks depends on efficient tools for monitoring progress. Evaluations of growth (i.e., slope) may be less efficient than evaluations of status at a single time point, especially if slopes do not add to predictions of outcomes over status. We examined progress monitoring slope validity for predicting reading outcomes among middle school students by evaluating latent growth models for different progress monitoring measure-outcome combinations. We used multi-group modeling to evaluate the effects of reading ability, reading intervention, and progress monitoring administration condition on slope validity. Slope validity was greatest when progress monitoring was aligned with the outcome (i.e., word reading fluency slope was used to predict fluency outcomes in contrast to comprehension outcomes), but effects varied across administration conditions (viz., repeated reading of familiar vs. novel passages). Unless the progress monitoring measure is highly aligned with outcome, slope may be an inefficient method for evaluating progress in an RTI context. PMID:24659899

  19. Monitoring Central Venous Catheter Resistance to Predict Imminent Occlusion: A Prospective Pilot Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Joshua; Tang, Li; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E.; Brennan, Rachel C.; Shook, David R.; Stokes, Dennis C.; Monagle, Paul; Curtis, Nigel; Worth, Leon J.; Allison, Kim; Sun, Yilun; Flynn, Patricia M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Long-term central venous catheters are essential for the management of chronic medical conditions, including childhood cancer. Catheter occlusion is associated with an increased risk of subsequent complications, including bloodstream infection, venous thrombosis, and catheter fracture. Therefore, predicting and pre-emptively treating occlusions should prevent complications, but no method for predicting such occlusions has been developed. Methods We conducted a prospective trial to determine the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of catheter-resistance monitoring, a novel approach to predicting central venous catheter occlusion in pediatric patients. Participants who had tunneled catheters and were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation underwent weekly catheter-resistance monitoring for up to 12 weeks. Resistance was assessed by measuring the inline pressure at multiple flow-rates via a syringe pump system fitted with a pressure-sensing transducer. When turbulent flow through the device was evident, resistance was not estimated, and the result was noted as “non-laminar.” Results Ten patients attended 113 catheter-resistance monitoring visits. Elevated catheter resistance (>8.8% increase) was strongly associated with the subsequent development of acute catheter occlusion within 10 days (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8–21.5; p <0.01; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 67%). A combined prediction model comprising either change in resistance greater than 8.8% or a non-laminar result predicted subsequent occlusion (odds ratio = 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.0–22.8; p = 0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 63%). Participants rated catheter-resistance monitoring as highly acceptable. Conclusions In this pediatric hematology and oncology population, catheter-resistance monitoring is feasible, acceptable, and predicts imminent catheter occlusion. Larger studies are required to validate

  20. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  1. Efficacy of monitoring and empirical predictive modeling at improving public health protection at Chicago beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to improve public health protection in recreational swimming waters have focused on obtaining real-time estimates of water quality. Current monitoring techniques rely on the time-intensive culturing of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) from water samples, but rapidly changing FIB concentrations result in management errors that lead to the public being exposed to high FIB concentrations (type II error) or beaches being closed despite acceptable water quality (type I error). Empirical predictive models may provide a rapid solution, but their effectiveness at improving health protection has not been adequately assessed. We sought to determine if emerging monitoring approaches could effectively reduce risk of illness exposure by minimizing management errors. We examined four monitoring approaches (inactive, current protocol, a single predictive model for all beaches, and individual models for each beach) with increasing refinement at 14 Chicago beaches using historical monitoring and hydrometeorological data and compared management outcomes using different standards for decision-making. Predictability (R2) of FIB concentration improved with model refinement at all beaches but one. Predictive models did not always reduce the number of management errors and therefore the overall illness burden. Use of a Chicago-specific single-sample standard-rather than the default 235 E. coli CFU/100 ml widely used-together with predictive modeling resulted in the greatest number of open beach days without any increase in public health risk. These results emphasize that emerging monitoring approaches such as empirical models are not equally applicable at all beaches, and combining monitoring approaches may expand beach access.

  2. Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

    2015-04-01

    Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

  3. MINErosion 3: A user friendly hillslope model for predicting erosion from steep post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    So, Hwat-Bing; Khalifa, Ashraf; Carroll, Chris; Yu, Bofu

    2010-05-01

    Open-cut coal mining in Central Queensland involves the breaking up of overburden that overlies the coal seams using explosives, followed by removal with draglines which results in the formation of extensive overburden spoil-piles with steep slopes at the angle of repose (approximately 75 % or 37o). These spoil-piles are found in long multiple rows, with heights of up to 60 or 70 m above the original landscapes. They are generally highly saline and dispersive and hence highly erosive. Legislation requires that these spoil-piles be rehabilitated into a stable self sustaining ecosystem with no off-site pollution. The first stage in the rehabilitation of these landscapes is the lowering of slopes to create a landscape that is stable against geotechnical failure and erosion. This is followed by revegetation generally with grasses as pioneer vegetation to further reduce erosion and a mixture of native shrubs and trees. Minimizing erosion and excessive on-site discharges of sediment into the working areas may result in the temporary cessation of mining operation with significant financial consequences, while off site discharges may breach the mining lease conditions. The average cost of rehabilitation is around 22,000 per ha. With more than 50,000 ha of such spoil-piles in Queensland at present, the total cost of rehabilitation facing the industry is very high. Most of this comprised the cost of reshaping the landscape, largely associated with the amount of material movement necessary to achieve the desired landscape. Since soil and spoil-piles vary greatly in their erodibilities, a reliable and accurate method is required to determine a cost effective combination of slope length, slope gradient and vegetation that will result in acceptable rates of erosion. A user friendly hillslope computer package MINErosion 3, was developed to predict potential erosion to select suitable combinations of landscape design parameters (slope gradient, slope length and vegetation cover

  4. Predicting Kindergarteners' Response to Early Reading Intervention: An Examination of Progress-Monitoring Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Taylor, Aaron B.; Simmons, Deborah C.; Simmons, Leslie; Kwok, Oi-Man; Johnson, Caitlin; Coyne, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of combinations of progress-monitoring measures: (a) curriculum-embedded phonemic awareness and alphabetic/decoding measures, and (b) Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good & Kaminski, 2002) nonsense word fluency and phoneme segmentation fluency on reading outcomes of…

  5. Predicting High Risk Adolescents' Substance Use over Time: The Role of Parental Monitoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Heddy Kovach; Shamblen, Stephen R.; Ringwalt, Chris L.; Hanley, Sean

    2012-01-01

    We examined whether parental monitoring at baseline predicted subsequent substance use in a high-risk youth population. Students in 14 alternative high schools in Washington State completed self-report surveys at three time points over the course of 2 years. Primary analyses included 1,423 students aged 14-20 who lived with at least one parent or…

  6. Improving flood prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture in poorly monitored catchments

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particula...

  7. Development of a catchment/landscape erosion prediction model (MINErosion 4) for post-mining landscapes in Central Queensland, Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalifa, Ashraf; Yu, Bofu; Ghadiri, Hossain; Carroll, Chris; So, Hwat-Bing

    2010-05-01

    industry further require a tool that enables them to predict and manage the impact of on-site and offsite discharges from storm events and to identify the areas of high erosion risk. Work is in progress to develop a user friendly package MINErosion 4 by combining the hillslope model MINErosion 3 with ARC-GIS 9, which allows the prediction of sediment losses and deposition from proposed post-mining landscapes (designed based on criteria derived from MINErosion3) subjected to rainstorms with known recurrence intervals for selected locations. An option is provided to derive mean annual soil loss from these catchments and landscapes. Soil samples were collected from various locations on 6 minesites to provide a measure of variability in erodibilities across a minesite. The model was validated against 9 years of catchment data collected from previous projects and the agreement between predicted (Y) and measured (X) soil losses are good with regression equations of Y = 0.919 X (R2 = 0.81) for individual rainstorms, and Y= 1.473 X (R2 = 0.726) for average annual soil loss.

  8. Research Progress of Farmland Drought Monitoring and Prediction Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Guijun; Yang, Hao; Jin, Xiuliang; Pignatti, Stefano; Casa, Raffaele; Pascucci, Simone; Silvesrtro, Paolo Cosmo

    2014-11-01

    Since the Kick-off of the Dragon-3 project Farmland Drought Monitoring and Prediction Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data (ID: 10448), our research focuses on three points including 1) the monitoring of key biophysical variables of crop and soil in farmland drought by optical and radar remote sensing data, 2) the risk assessment of farmland drought by time series remote sensing and meteorological data, and 3) the crop loss evaluation under farmland drought mainly based on AquaCrop crop model. Our study area is mainly located in Beijing, and Shaanxi Province (semi-arid region), China. Experiment campaign and data analysis were carried out and some new methods aiming at farmland drought monitoring and prediction were developed, which highlighting the importance of ESA-NRSCC Dragon cooperation.

  9. Predictive based monitoring of nuclear plant component degradation using support vector regression

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

    2015-02-01

    Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are large installations comprised of many active and passive assets. Degradation monitoring of all these assets is expensive (labor cost) and highly demanding task. In this paper a framework based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for online surveillance of critical parameter degradation of NPP components is proposed. In this case, on time replacement or maintenance of components will prevent potential plant malfunctions, and reduce the overall operational cost. In the current work, we apply SVR equipped with a Gaussian kernel function to monitor components. Monitoring includes the one-step-ahead prediction of the component’s respective operational quantity using the SVR model, while the SVR model is trained using a set of previous recorded degradation histories of similar components. Predictive capability of the model is evaluated upon arrival of a sensor measurement, which is compared to the component failure threshold. A maintenance decision is based on a fuzzy inference system that utilizes three parameters: (i) prediction evaluation in the previous steps, (ii) predicted value of the current step, (iii) and difference of current predicted value with components failure thresholds. The proposed framework will be tested on turbine blade degradation data.

  10. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    The forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute

  11. A Study Protocol for the Australasian Oncofertility Registry: Monitoring Referral Patterns and the Uptake, Quality, and Complications of Fertility Preservation Strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Anazodo, Antoinette C; Stern, Catharyn J; McLachlan, Robert I; Gerstl, Brigitte; Agresta, Franca; Cohn, Richard J; Jayasinghe, Yasmin; Wakefield, Claire E; Daly, Genevieve; Chan, Daisy; Gilbert, Lorrae; Kemertzis, Matthew; Orme, Lisa M; Wand, Handan; Viney, Rosalie; Gillam, Lynn; Deans, Rebecca; Jetti, Murali; Wu, John; Chapman, Michael; Ledger, William; Sullivan, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    Improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment in patients of a reproductive age have led to significant improvements in survival rates; however, a patient's fertility can be affected by both cancer and its treatment. As survival rates improve, there is an expectation by clinicians and patients that patient's reproductive potential should be considered and protected as much as possible. However, there is a lack of data about current fertility preservation (FP) uptake as well as accurate data on the acute or permanent reproductive risks of cancer treatment, complications of FP in cancer patients, and the use and success of assisted reproductive technology by cancer survivors. FP remains a major gap in acute cancer management with lifelong implications for cancer survivors. The FUTuRE Fertility research team has established the first binational multisite Australasian Oncofertility Registry, which is collecting a complete oncofertility data set from cancer and fertility centers in Australia and New Zealand. Outcomes from the research study will monitor referral, uptake, and complications of FP, document patient's reproductive potential after treatment, and collect data on the use of assisted reproductive technology following cancer treatment. The data will be linked to other routine health and administrative data sets to allow for other research projects to be carried out. The changes in oncofertility care will be benchmarked against the Australasian Oncofertility Charter. The data will be used to develop evidence-based guidelines and resources, including development of accurate risk projections for patients' risk of infertility, allowing clinicians to make recommendations for FP or assisted reproductive technology. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Number-12615000221550. PMID:26981848

  12. Computational studies of a strain-based deformation shape prediction algorithm for control and monitoring applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derkevorkian, Armen; Alvarenga, Jessica; Masri, Sami F.; Boussalis, Helen; Richards, W. Lance

    2012-04-01

    A modal approach is investigated for real-time deformation shape prediction of lightweight unmanned flying aerospace structures, for the purposes of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) and condition assessment. The deformation prediction algorithm depends on the modal properties of the structure and uses high-resolution fiber-optic sensors to obtain strain data from a representative aerospace structure (e.g., flying wing) in order to predict the associated real-time deflection shape. The method is based on the use of fiber-optic sensors such as optical Fiber Bragg Gratings (FBGs) which are known for their accuracy and light weight. In this study, the modal method is examined through computational models involving Finite-Element Analysis (FEA). Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the effects of several external factors such as sensor locations and noise pollution on the performance of the algorithm. This work analyzes the numerous complications and difficulties that might potentially arise from combining the state-of-the-art advancements in sensing technology, deformation shape prediction, and structural health monitoring, to achieve a robust way of monitoring ultra lightweight flying wings or next-generation commercial airplanes.

  13. Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropoulos, G. P.; North, M. R.; Ireland, G.; Srivastava, P. K.; Rendall, D. V.

    2015-10-01

    This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (Rg), net radiation (Rnet), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), air temperature at 1.3 m (Tair 1.3 m) and air temperature at 50 m (Tair 50 m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the Rg, Rnet, Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m parameters. The simulated Rg parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ~ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the Rnet parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m-2). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (mean bias error (MBE) = -19.48 and -16.46 W m-2) was also found. Simulations for the Tair 1.3 m and Tair 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 °C (within ~ 15 and ~ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m-2, ~ 34 and ~ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting

  14. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia.

    PubMed

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I J M; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-05-15

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  15. Evaluation of the predicted error of the soil moisture retrieval from C-band SAR by comparison against modelled soil moisture estimates over Australia

    PubMed Central

    Doubková, Marcela; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Sabel, Daniel; Wagner, Wolfgang; Blöschl, Günter

    2012-01-01

    The Sentinel-1 will carry onboard a C-band radar instrument that will map the European continent once every four days and the global land surface at least once every twelve days with finest 5 × 20 m spatial resolution. The high temporal sampling rate and operational configuration make Sentinel-1 of interest for operational soil moisture monitoring. Currently, updated soil moisture data are made available at 1 km spatial resolution as a demonstration service using Global Mode (GM) measurements from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) onboard ENVISAT. The service demonstrates the potential of the C-band observations to monitor variations in soil moisture. Importantly, a retrieval error estimate is also available; these are needed to assimilate observations into models. The retrieval error is estimated by propagating sensor errors through the retrieval model. In this work, the existing ASAR GM retrieval error product is evaluated using independent top soil moisture estimates produced by the grid-based landscape hydrological model (AWRA-L) developed within the Australian Water Resources Assessment system (AWRA). The ASAR GM retrieval error estimate, an assumed prior AWRA-L error estimate and the variance in the respective datasets were used to spatially predict the root mean square error (RMSE) and the Pearson's correlation coefficient R between the two datasets. These were compared with the RMSE calculated directly from the two datasets. The predicted and computed RMSE showed a very high level of agreement in spatial patterns as well as good quantitative agreement; the RMSE was predicted within accuracy of 4% of saturated soil moisture over 89% of the Australian land mass. Predicted and calculated R maps corresponded within accuracy of 10% over 61% of the continent. The strong correspondence between the predicted and calculated RMSE and R builds confidence in the retrieval error model and derived ASAR GM error estimates. The ASAR GM and Sentinel-1 have

  16. Southern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    South-central Australia is home to several deserts, including the Simpson Desert, whose reddish-orange sands are seen in the upper left quadrant of this Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from July 1, 2002. Several impermanent, salty, lakes stand whitely out against the arid terrain. The largest is North Lake Eyre, southwest of center. At bottom center, Spencer Gulf separates the triangular Eyre Peninsula from the Yorke Peninsula. The Gulf of St. Vincent separates Yorke Peninsula from the mainland. In Spencer Gulf, colorful blue-green swirls indicate the presence of a bloom of marine plants called phytoplankton, whose brightly colored photosynthetic pigments stain the water. Water quality in the Gulf is an ongoing problem for Australia, as irrigation projects have diverted the already small flow of freshwater that empties into the Gulf. Other problems include contamination with pesticides and agricultural and residential fertilizer. On both the Eyre Peninsula and in the Victoria Territory to the east of Spencer Gulf, dark-colored rectangles show the boundaries of parks and nature preserves where the natural, drought-tolerant vegetation thrives.

  17. Integrating monitor alarms with laboratory test results to enhance patient deterioration prediction.

    PubMed

    Bai, Yong; Do, Duc H; Harris, Patricia Rae Eileen; Schindler, Daniel; Boyle, Noel G; Drew, Barbara J; Hu, Xiao

    2015-02-01

    Patient monitors in modern hospitals have become ubiquitous but they generate an excessive number of false alarms causing alarm fatigue. Our previous work showed that combinations of frequently co-occurring monitor alarms, called SuperAlarm patterns, were capable of predicting in-hospital code blue events at a lower alarm frequency. In the present study, we extend the conceptual domain of a SuperAlarm to incorporate laboratory test results along with monitor alarms so as to build an integrated data set to mine SuperAlarm patterns. We propose two approaches to integrate monitor alarms with laboratory test results and use a maximal frequent itemsets mining algorithm to find SuperAlarm patterns. Under an acceptable false positive rate FPRmax, optimal parameters including the minimum support threshold and the length of time window for the algorithm to find the combinations of monitor alarms and laboratory test results are determined based on a 10-fold cross-validation set. SuperAlarm candidates are generated under these optimal parameters. The final SuperAlarm patterns are obtained by further removing the candidates with false positive rate>FPRmax. The performance of SuperAlarm patterns are assessed using an independent test data set. First, we calculate the sensitivity with respect to prediction window and the sensitivity with respect to lead time. Second, we calculate the false SuperAlarm ratio (ratio of the hourly number of SuperAlarm triggers for control patients to that of the monitor alarms, or that of regular monitor alarms plus laboratory test results if the SuperAlarm patterns contain laboratory test results) and the work-up to detection ratio, WDR (ratio of the number of patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns to that of code blue patients triggering any SuperAlarm patterns). The experiment results demonstrate that when varying FPRmax between 0.02 and 0.15, the SuperAlarm patterns composed of monitor alarms along with the last two laboratory test results

  18. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Harben, P E

    2007-07-09

    The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large

  19. Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2010-12-01

    The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST

  20. Interactions of team mental models and monitoring behaviors predict team performance in simulated anesthesia inductions.

    PubMed

    Burtscher, Michael J; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-09-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team mental model properties. Thirty-one two-person teams consisting of anesthesia resident and anesthesia nurse were videotaped during a simulated anesthesia induction of general anesthesia. Team mental models were assessed with a newly developed measurement tool based on the concept-mapping technique. Monitoring behavior was coded by two organizational psychologists using a structured observation system. Team performance was rated by two expert anesthetists using a performance-checklist. Moderated multiple regression analysis revealed that team mental model similarity moderated the relationship between team monitoring and performance; a higher level of team monitoring in the absence of a similar team mental model had a negative effect on performance. Furthermore, team mental model similarity and accuracy interacted to predict team performance. Our findings provide new insights on factors influencing the relationship between team processes and team performance in health care. When investigating the effectiveness of a specific team coordination behavior, team cognition has to be taken into account. This represents a necessary and compelling extension of the popular process-outcome relationship on which previous teamwork research in health care has focused. Moreover, the current study adds further external validity to the concept of team mental models by highlighting its usefulness in health care. PMID:21942315

  1. Absent otoacoustic emissions predict otitis media in young Aboriginal children: A birth cohort study in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children in an arid zone of Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Lehmann, Deborah; Weeks, Sharon; Jacoby, Peter; Elsbury, Dimity; Finucane, Janine; Stokes, Annette; Monck, Ruth; Coates, Harvey

    2008-01-01

    Background Otitis media (OM) is the most common paediatric illness for which antibiotics are prescribed. In Australian Aboriginal children OM is frequently asymptomatic and starts at a younger age, is more common and more likely to result in hearing loss than in non-Aboriginal children. Absent transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) may predict subsequent risk of OM. Methods 100 Aboriginal and 180 non-Aboriginal children in a semi-arid zone of Western Australia were followed regularly from birth to age 2 years. Tympanometry was conducted at routine field follow-up from age 3 months. Routine clinical examination by an ENT specialist was to be done 3 times and hearing assessment by an audiologist twice. TEOAEs were measured at ages <1 and 1–2 months. Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the association between absent TEOAEs and subsequent risk of OM. Results At routine ENT specialist clinics, OM was detected in 55% of 184 examinations in Aboriginal children and 26% of 392 examinations in non-Aboriginal children; peak prevalence was 72% at age 5–9 months in Aboriginal children and 40% at 10–14 months in non-Aboriginal children. Moderate-severe hearing loss was present in 32% of 47 Aboriginal children and 7% of 120 non-Aboriginal children aged 12 months or more. TEOAE responses were present in 90% (46/51) of Aboriginal children and 99% (120/121) of non-Aboriginal children aged <1 month and in 62% (21/34) and 93% (108/116), respectively, in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children at age 1–2 months. Aboriginal children who failed TEOAE at age 1–2 months were 2.6 times more likely to develop OM subsequently than those who passed. Overall prevalence of type B tympanograms at field follow-up was 50% (n = 78) in Aboriginal children and 20% (n = 95) in non-Aboriginal children. Conclusion The burden of middle ear disease is high in all children, but particularly in Aboriginal children, one-third of whom suffer from moderate-severe hearing

  2. Accuracy of continuous noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring for the prediction of blood transfusions in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Galvagno, Samuel M; Hu, Peter; Yang, Shiming; Gao, Cheng; Hanna, David; Shackelford, Stacy; Mackenzie, Colin

    2015-12-01

    Early detection of hemorrhagic shock is required to facilitate prompt coordination of blood component therapy delivery to the bedside and to expedite performance of lifesaving interventions. Standard physical findings and vital signs are difficult to measure during the acute resuscitation stage, and these measures are often inaccurate until patients deteriorate to a state of decompensated shock. The aim of this study is to examine a severely injured trauma patient population to determine whether a noninvasive SpHb monitor can predict the need for urgent blood transfusion (universal donor or additional urgent blood transfusion) during the first 12 h of trauma patient resuscitation. We hypothesize that trends in continuous SpHb, combined with easily derived patient-specific factors, can identify the immediate need for transfusion in trauma patients. Subjects were enrolled if directly admitted to the trauma center, >17 years of age, and with a shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) >0.62. Upon admission, a Masimo Radical-7 co-oximeter sensor (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) was applied, providing measurement of continuous non-invasive hemoglobin (SpHb) levels. Blood was drawn and hemoglobin concentration analyzed and conventional pulse oximetry photopletysmograph signals were continuously recorded. Demographic information and both prehospital and admission vital signs were collected. The primary outcome was transfusion of at least one unit of packed red blood cells within 24 h of admission. Eight regression models (C1-C8) were evaluated for the prediction of blood use by comparing area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) at different time intervals after admission. 711 subjects had continuous vital signs waveforms available, to include heart rate (HR), SpHb and SpO2 trends. When SpHb was monitored for 15 min, SpHb did not increase AUROC for prediction of transfusion. The highest ROC was recorded for model C8 (age, sex, prehospital shock index, admission

  3. Becoming a Woman Teacher: Memories of Learning to Be a Monitor in Western Australia in the 1920s and 1930s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trotman, Janina; O'Donoghue, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Oral testimonies generated in a research project involving a group of women graduates of Western Australia's state teachers' college indicate that contradictions existed between competing discourses of femininity and teaching in the State in the early decades of the twentieth century, and that these opened up new possibilities for women teachers.…

  4. NOAA Drought Task Force: A Coordinated Research Initiative to Advance Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, A.; Barrie, D.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was first established in October 2011 and renewed in October 2014 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. The Drought Task Force also represents an important research contribution to efforts to develop an international Global Drought Information System (GDIS). The Drought Task Force brings together leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities and plans to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS and synergy with GDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  5. Advancing the understanding, monitoring and prediction of North American drought in support of NIDIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Pulwarty, Roger

    2014-05-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. It brings together over thirty-five leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. In this presentation we will show how a coordinated, sustained multidisciplinary effort to assess understanding of both past droughts and emergent events contributes to the effectiveness of early warning systems. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  6. Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

  7. Comparison of tunnel ventilation emissions monitoring data against predicted modeling results

    SciTech Connect

    Kasprak, A.; Schattanek, G.

    1997-12-31

    On December 15, 1995, the new Ted Williams Tunnel (TWT) opened for commercial and taxi traffic between South and East Boston. This opening of the TWT constitutes the Early Opening Phase which will extend until the completion of the Central Artery/Tunnel (CA/T) Project, when the connection between the TWT, the Massachusetts Turnpike (I-90), and the Central Artery (I-93) will be completed and fully opened for general public use. The ventilation system for the TWT is a fully transverse ventilation system that is comprised of numerous supply and exhaust fans and ancillary equipment housed in two separate ventilation buildings. Emissions from vehicles are ventilated to the outside atmosphere through a series of exhaust stacks, housed on each ventilation building. During the Early Opening Phase of the TWT, a monitoring program is being conducted to determine if the emissions from each ventilation building are within the ranges of the projected emissions used in the design of the tunnel`s ventilation system. This paper presents the results of the emissions monitoring program and compares projected emissions data with the actual emissions data recorded during the monitoring program. In addition, a comparison is made regarding monitoring emissions data within the tunnel with predicted emission data using the current Mobile 5a Emission Factor Model.

  8. Research-Based Monitoring, Prediction, and Analysis Tools of the Spacecraft Charging Environment for Spacecraft Users

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Maddox, Marlo M.; Mays, Mona Leila

    2015-01-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (http://swrc. gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard, part of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), is committed to providing research-based forecasts and notifications to address NASA's space weather needs, in addition to its critical role in space weather education. It provides a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, tailored space weather alerts and products, and weekly summaries and reports. In this paper, we focus on how (near) real-time data (both in space and on ground), in combination with modeling capabilities and an innovative dissemination system called the integrated Space Weather Analysis system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), enable monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the spacecraft charging environment for spacecraft users. Relevant tools and resources are discussed.

  9. Sydney, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2002 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER will image Earth for the next 6 years to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18,1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. Dr. Anne Kahle at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, is the U.S. Science team leader; Bjorn Eng of JPL is the project manager. ASTER is the only high resolution imaging sensor on Terra. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, along-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth's land, oceans, atmosphere, ice and life as a total integrated system.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance.

    Size: 42 x 32 km (25.1 x 19.2 miles) Location: 33.7 deg. South lat., 151.4 deg. East long. Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER bands 1,2, and 3. Original Data Resolution: 15 m Date Acquired: October 12, 2001

  10. Individual Differences in Fifth Graders' Literacy and Academic Language Predict Comprehension Monitoring Development: An Eye-Movement Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth graders' (n = 52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task,…

  11. Ocean currents influence the genetic structure of an intertidal mollusc in southeastern Australia – implications for predicting the movement of passive dispersers across a marine biogeographic barrier

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Adam D; Versace, Vincent L; Matthews, Ty G; Montgomery, Steven; Bowie, Kate C

    2013-01-01

    Major disjunctions among marine communities in southeastern Australia have been well documented, although explanations for biogeographic structuring remain uncertain. Converging ocean currents, environmental gradients, and habitat discontinuities have been hypothesized as likely drivers of structuring in many species, although the extent to which species are affected appears largely dependent on specific life histories and ecologies. Understanding these relationships is critical to the management of native and invasive species, and the preservation of evolutionary processes that shape biodiversity in this region. In this study we test the direct influence of ocean currents on the genetic structure of a passive disperser across a major biogeographic barrier. Donax deltoides (Veneroida: Donacidae) is an intertidal, soft-sediment mollusc and an ideal surrogate for testing this relationship, given its lack of habitat constraints in this region, and its immense dispersal potential driven by year-long spawning and long-lived planktonic larvae. We assessed allele frequencies at 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci across 11 sample locations spanning the barrier region and identified genetic structure consistent with the major ocean currents of southeastern Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequence data indicated no evidence of genetic structuring, but signatures of a species range expansion corresponding with historical inundations of the Bassian Isthmus. Our results indicate that ocean currents are likely to be the most influential factor affecting the genetic structure of D. deltoides and a likely physical barrier for passive dispersing marine fauna generally in southeastern Australia. PMID:23762511

  12. Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

    PubMed

    Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

    2014-09-01

    Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology. PMID:25083792

  13. Internet-based monitoring and prediction system of coal stockpile behaviors under atmospheric conditions.

    PubMed

    Yilmaz, Nihat; Ozdeniz, A Hadi

    2010-03-01

    Spontaneous combustion on industrial-scale stockpiles causes environmental problems and economic losses for the companies consuming large amounts of coal. In this study, an effective monitoring and prediction system based on internet was developed and implemented to prevent losses and environmental problems. The system was performed in a coal stockpile with 5 m width, 10 m length, 3 m height, and having 120 t of weight. The inner temperature data of the stockpile was recorded by 17 temperature sensors placed inside the stockpile at certain points. Additionally, the data relating to the air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and wind direction that are the parameters affecting the coal stockpile were also recorded. The recorded values were analyzed with artificial neural network and Statistical modeling methods for prediction of spontaneous combustion. Real-time measurement values and model outputs were published with a web page on internet. The internet-based system can also provide real-time monitoring (combustion alarms, system status) and tele-controlling (Parameter adjusting, system control) through internet exclusively with a standard web browser without the need of any additional software. PMID:19238568

  14. Monitor units are not predictive of neutron dose for high-energy IMRT

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Due to the substantial increase in beam-on time of high energy intensity-modulated radiotherapy (>10 MV) techniques to deliver the same target dose compared to conventional treatment techniques, an increased dose of scatter radiation, including neutrons, is delivered to the patient. As a consequence, an increase in second malignancies may be expected in the future with the application of intensity-modulated radiotherapy. It is commonly assumed that the neutron dose equivalent scales with the number of monitor units. Methods Measurements of neutron dose equivalent were performed for an open and an intensity-modulated field at four positions: inside and outside of the treatment field at 0.2 cm and 15 cm depth, respectively. Results It was shown that the neutron dose equivalent, which a patient receives during an intensity-modulated radiotherapy treatment, does not scale with the ratio of applied monitor units relative to an open field irradiation. Outside the treatment volume at larger depth 35% less neutron dose equivalent is delivered than expected. Conclusions The predicted increase of second cancer induction rates from intensity-modulated treatment techniques can be overestimated when the neutron dose is simply scaled with monitor units. PMID:22883384

  15. Network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories for earthquake prediction research in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, Hirok; Barman, Chiranjib; Iyengar, A.; Ghose, Debasis; Sen, Prasanta; Sinha, Bikash

    2013-08-01

    Present paper deals with a brief review of the research carried out to develop multi-parametric gas-geochemical monitoring facilities dedicated to earthquake prediction research in India by installing a network of seismo-geochemical monitoring observatories at different regions of the country. In an attempt to detect earthquake precursors, the concentrations of helium, argon, nitrogen, methane, radon-222 (222Rn), polonium-218 (218Po), and polonium-214 (214Po) emanating from hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously and round the clock at these observatories. In this paper, we make a cross correlation study of a number of geochemical anomalies recorded at these observatories. With the data received from each of the above observatories we attempt to make a time series analysis to relate magnitude and epicentral distance locations through statistical methods, empirical formulations that relate the area of influence to earthquake scale. Application of the linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in the recorded geochemical data sets reveal a clear signature of long-range correlation in the data sets.

  16. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This detailed view of the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia (19.5S, 149.5E) shows several small patch reefs within the overall reef system. The Great Barrier Reef, largest in the world, comprises thousands of individual reefs of great variety and are closely monitored by marine ecologists. These reefs are about 6000 years old and sit on top of much older reefs. The most rapid coral growth occurs on the landward side of the reefs.

  17. Prediction of Tumor Recurrence and Therapy Monitoring Using Ultrasound-Guided Photoacoustic Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Mallidi, Srivalleesha; Watanabe, Kohei; Timerman, Dmitriy; Schoenfeld, David; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2015-01-01

    Selection and design of individualized treatments remains a key goal in cancer therapeutics; prediction of response and tumor recurrence following a given therapy provides a basis for subsequent personalized treatment design. We demonstrate an approach towards this goal with the example of photodynamic therapy (PDT) as the treatment modality and photoacoustic imaging (PAI) as a non-invasive, response and disease recurrence monitor in a murine model of glioblastoma (GBM). PDT is a photochemistry-based, clinically-used technique that consumes oxygen to generate cytotoxic species, thus causing changes in blood oxygen saturation (StO2). We hypothesize that this change in StO2 can be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment efficacy and tumor recurrence. PAI is a technique that can provide a 3D atlas of tumor StO2 by measuring oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. We demonstrate that tumors responding to PDT undergo approximately 85% change in StO2 by 24-hrs post-therapy while there is no significant change in StO2 values in the non-responding group. Furthermore, the 3D tumor StO2 maps predicted whether a tumor was likely to regrow at a later time point post-therapy. Information on the likelihood of tumor regrowth that normally would have been available only upon actual regrowth (10-30 days post treatment) in a xenograft tumor model, was available within 24-hrs of treatment using PAI, thus making early intervention a possibility. Given the advances and push towards availability of PAI in the clinical settings, the results of this study encourage applicability of PAI as an important step to guide and monitor therapies (e.g. PDT, radiation, anti-angiogenic) involving a change in StO2. PMID:25553116

  18. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2005-12-01

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, was re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for coal/IGCC powerplants. The new program was re-titled ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants''. This final report summarizes the work accomplished from March 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 on the four original tasks, and the work accomplished from April 1, 2004 to July 30, 2005 on the two re-directed tasks. The program Tasks are summarized below: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: The first task was refocused to address IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials used in gas turbines. This task screened material performance and quantified the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in coal/IGCC applications. The materials of interest included those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: The second task was reduced in scope to demonstrate new technologies to determine the inservice health of advanced technology coal/IGCC powerplants. The task focused on two critical sensing needs for advanced coal/IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation. (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware. Task 3--Advanced Methods for Combustion Monitoring and Control: The third task was originally to develop and validate advanced monitoring and control methods for coal/IGCC gas turbine combustion systems. This task was

  19. Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

    PubMed

    Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

    2014-02-01

    We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events. PMID:23949111

  20. Lumped Parameter Modeling as a Predictive Tool for a Battery Status Monitor

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Chester G. Motloch; Chinh D. Ho; John L. Morrison; Ronald C. Fenton; Vincent S. Battaglia; Tien Q. Duong

    2003-10-01

    The Advanced Technology Development Program is currently evaluating the performance of the second generation of lithium-ion cells (i.e., Gen 2 cells). Both the Gen 2 Baseline and Variant C cells are tested in accordance with the cell-specific test plan, and are removed at roughly equal power fade increments and sent for destructive diagnostic analysis. The diagnostic laboratories did not need all test cells for analysis, and returned five spare cells to the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). INEEL used these cells for special pulse testing at various duty cycles, amplitudes, and durations to investigate the usefulness of the lumped parameter model (LPM) as a predictive tool in a battery status monitor (BSM). The LPM is a simplified linear model that accurately predicts the voltage response during certain pulse conditions. A database of parameter trends should enable dynamic predictions of state-of-charge and state-of-health conditions during in-vehicle pulsing. This information could be used by the BSM to provide accurate information to the vehicle control system.

  1. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  2. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  3. Monitoring, mapping and prediction of ionospheric scintillation over the Brazilian equatorial and low latitude regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker-Guedes, Fabio; de Paula, E. R.; de Rezende, L. F. C.; Stephany, S.; Kantor, I. J.; Muella, M. T. A. H.; Siqueira, P. M.; Correa, K. S.; Dutra, A. P.; Guedes, C.; Takahashi, H.; Silva, J. D. S.

    It is well known, today, that equatorial ionospheric scintillations affect performance of GPS receivers. Scintillation occurs when a radio wave crosses the ionosphere and suffers distortion in phase and amplitude. It also contributes to loss of lock of GPS receivers, resulting decrease of the number of available satellites and consequently yielding poor satellite geometry. Therefore, the required accuracy and positioning precision for aerial navigation are affected. Among other activities, EMBRACE, the space weather program of INPE, is monitoring and mapping the ionospheric scintillation over the South American equatorial and low latitude region in real time. This mapping is available in the internet by means of computer programs that retrieve data from a network of GPS receivers distributed in Brazil. These data are also being used to survey and predict the occurrence of ionospheric scintillation through data mining techniques.

  4. Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stähli, M.; Sättele, M.; Huggel, C.; McArdell, B. W.; Lehmann, P.; Van Herwijnen, A.; Berne, A.; Schleiss, M.; Ferrari, A.; Kos, A.; Or, D.; Springman, S. M.

    2015-04-01

    Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential.

  5. Usefulness of mycophenolic acid monitoring with PETINIA for prediction of adverse events in kidney transplant recipients.

    PubMed

    Ham, Ji Yeon; Jung, Hee-Yeon; Choi, Ji-Young; Park, Sun-Hee; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Hyung-Kee; Huh, Seung; Kim, Chan-Duck; Won, Dong Il; Song, Kyung Eun; Cho, Jang-Hee

    2016-07-01

    Background Therapeutic drug monitoring of mycophenolic acid (MPA) is required to optimize the immunosuppressive effect and minimize toxicity. We validated a new particle-enhanced turbidimetric inhibition immunoassay (PETINIA) for the determination of MPA levels and evaluated the relationship of MPA trough level with drug-related adverse events. Methods PETENIA and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) were used to determine MPA concentrations from 54 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Agreement between PETINIA and LC-MS results was assessed by Passing-Bablok regression and the Bland-Altman plot method. The association of adverse events with MPA trough level obtained by PETINIA was analyzed. Results PETINIA revealed a good agreement with the LC-MS; Regression analysis gave an equation of y = 1.27x - 0.12 (r(2) = 0.975, p < 0.001). PETINIA showed a systemic positive bias with a mean difference of 0.66 mg/L compared to LC-MS. However, the magnitude of the positive bias decreased to 0.44 mg/L within the therapeutic range of MPA. Multiple logistic regression showed that MPA trough level determined by PETINIA was an independent risk factor for adverse events (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.25-4.16, p = 0.007). MPA trough level predicted adverse events with a sensitivity of 77.8% and a specificity of 86.7% using a cut-off level of 5.25 mg/L. Conclusions Good correlation between the two methods indicates that PETINIA is an acceptable method for the monitoring of MPA therapeutic levels. Furthermore, MPA trough level obtained by PETINIA is a useful monitoring tool to minimize toxicity in KTRs. PMID:26981890

  6. Direct Pressure Monitoring Accurately Predicts Pulmonary Vein Occlusion During Cryoballoon Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Kosmidou, Ioanna; Wooden, Shannnon; Jones, Brian; Deering, Thomas; Wickliffe, Andrew; Dan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) is an established therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). Pulmonary vein (PV) occlusion is essential for achieving antral contact and PV isolation and is typically assessed by contrast injection. We present a novel method of direct pressure monitoring for assessment of PV occlusion. Transcatheter pressure is monitored during balloon advancement to the PV antrum. Pressure is recorded via a single pressure transducer connected to the inner lumen of the cryoballoon. Pressure curve characteristics are used to assess occlusion in conjunction with fluoroscopic or intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) guidance. PV occlusion is confirmed when loss of typical left atrial (LA) pressure waveform is observed with recordings of PA pressure characteristics (no A wave and rapid V wave upstroke). Complete pulmonary vein occlusion as assessed with this technique has been confirmed with concurrent contrast utilization during the initial testing of the technique and has been shown to be highly accurate and readily reproducible. We evaluated the efficacy of this novel technique in 35 patients. A total of 128 veins were assessed for occlusion with the cryoballoon utilizing the pressure monitoring technique; occlusive pressure was demonstrated in 113 veins with resultant successful pulmonary vein isolation in 111 veins (98.2%). Occlusion was confirmed with subsequent contrast injection during the initial ten procedures, after which contrast utilization was rapidly reduced or eliminated given the highly accurate identification of occlusive pressure waveform with limited initial training. Verification of PV occlusive pressure during CBA is a novel approach to assessing effective PV occlusion and it accurately predicts electrical isolation. Utilization of this method results in significant decrease in fluoroscopy time and volume of contrast. PMID:23485956

  7. Direct pressure monitoring accurately predicts pulmonary vein occlusion during cryoballoon ablation.

    PubMed

    Kosmidou, Ioanna; Wooden, Shannnon; Jones, Brian; Deering, Thomas; Wickliffe, Andrew; Dan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) is an established therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). Pulmonary vein (PV) occlusion is essential for achieving antral contact and PV isolation and is typically assessed by contrast injection. We present a novel method of direct pressure monitoring for assessment of PV occlusion. Transcatheter pressure is monitored during balloon advancement to the PV antrum. Pressure is recorded via a single pressure transducer connected to the inner lumen of the cryoballoon. Pressure curve characteristics are used to assess occlusion in conjunction with fluoroscopic or intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) guidance. PV occlusion is confirmed when loss of typical left atrial (LA) pressure waveform is observed with recordings of PA pressure characteristics (no A wave and rapid V wave upstroke). Complete pulmonary vein occlusion as assessed with this technique has been confirmed with concurrent contrast utilization during the initial testing of the technique and has been shown to be highly accurate and readily reproducible. We evaluated the efficacy of this novel technique in 35 patients. A total of 128 veins were assessed for occlusion with the cryoballoon utilizing the pressure monitoring technique; occlusive pressure was demonstrated in 113 veins with resultant successful pulmonary vein isolation in 111 veins (98.2%). Occlusion was confirmed with subsequent contrast injection during the initial ten procedures, after which contrast utilization was rapidly reduced or eliminated given the highly accurate identification of occlusive pressure waveform with limited initial training. Verification of PV occlusive pressure during CBA is a novel approach to assessing effective PV occlusion and it accurately predicts electrical isolation. Utilization of this method results in significant decrease in fluoroscopy time and volume of contrast. PMID:23485956

  8. FBG Sensor for Contact Level Monitoring and Prediction of Perforation in Cardiac Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Nazeri, Alireza; Song, Gangbing

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia, and is characterized by a disordered contractile activity of the atria (top chambers of the heart). A popular treatment for AF is radiofrequency (RF) ablation. In about 2.4% of cardiac RF ablation procedures, the catheter is accidently pushed through the heart wall due to the application of excessive force. Despite the various capabilities of currently available technology, there has yet to be any data establishing how cardiac perforation can be reliably predicted. Thus, two new FBG based sensor prototypes were developed to monitor contact levels and predict perforation. Two live sheep were utilized during the study. It was observed during operation that peaks appeared in rhythm with the heart rate whenever firm contact was made between the sensor and the endocardial wall. The magnitude of these peaks varied with pressure applied by the operator. Lastly, transmural perforation of the left atrial wall was characterized by a visible loading phase and a rapid signal drop-off correlating to perforation. A possible pre-perforation signal was observed for the epoxy-based sensor in the form of a slight signal reversal (12–26% of loading phase magnitude) prior to perforation (occurring over 8 s). PMID:22368507

  9. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  10. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success. PMID:25570321

  11. FBG sensor for contact level monitoring and prediction of perforation in cardiac ablation.

    PubMed

    Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Nazeri, Alireza; Song, Gangbing

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia, and is characterized by a disordered contractile activity of the atria (top chambers of the heart). A popular treatment for AF is radiofrequency (RF) ablation. In about 2.4% of cardiac RF ablation procedures, the catheter is accidently pushed through the heart wall due to the application of excessive force. Despite the various capabilities of currently available technology, there has yet to be any data establishing how cardiac perforation can be reliably predicted. Thus, two new FBG based sensor prototypes were developed to monitor contact levels and predict perforation. Two live sheep were utilized during the study. It was observed during operation that peaks appeared in rhythm with the heart rate whenever firm contact was made between the sensor and the endocardial wall. The magnitude of these peaks varied with pressure applied by the operator. Lastly, transmural perforation of the left atrial wall was characterized by a visible loading phase and a rapid signal drop-off correlating to perforation. A possible pre-perforation signal was observed for the epoxy-based sensor in the form of a slight signal reversal (12-26% of loading phase magnitude) prior to perforation (occurring over 8 s). PMID:22368507

  12. Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

    PubMed Central

    Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

  13. Remote infrasound monitoring of Mount Etna: Observed and predicted network detection capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tailpied, Dorianne; Le Pichon, Alexis; Marchetti, Emanuele; Ripepe, Maurizio; Kallel, Mohamed; Ceranna, Lars

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are unique and valuable calibrating sources of infrasonic waves worldwide detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and other experimental stations. Building a comprehensive database of volcanic signals is likely to help the scientific community to better characterize eruptive sequences and may help to prevent eruption disasters while on a longer term mitigate the impact of ash clouds on aviation. In this study, we assess the detection capability of the existing infrasound network to remotely detect the eruptive activity of Mount Etna with a high level of confidence, and predict the performance of the future ARISE infrastructure network (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe). This well-instrumented volcano offers a unique opportunity to validate attenuation models using multiyear near-and-far field recordings. The seasonal trend in the number of detections of Etna at the IS48 IMS station (Tunisia) is correlated to fine temporal fluctuations of the stratospheric waveguide structure. The modeling results are consistent with the observed detection capability of the existing network. In summer, during the downwind season, a minimum detectable amplitude of ~10 Pa at a reference distance of 1 km from the source is predicted. In winter, when upwind propagation occurs, detection thresholds increase up to ~100 Pa. When adding four experimental arrays to the existing IMS network, thresholds decrease down to ~20 Pa in winter. The simulation results provide here a realistic description of long-range infrasound propagation and allow predicting fine temporal fluctuations in the European infrasound network performance with potential application for civil aviation safety.

  14. Is the incidence of heart attack still decreasing in Australia? Developing reliable methods for monitoring trends in myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (AUS-MOCHA): a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Hung, Joseph; Mathur, Sushma; Beilby, John; Reynolds, Anna; Briffa, Tom G; Lopez, Derrick

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Accurate monitoring of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) is essential for understanding the effects of primary and secondary prevention and for planning of healthcare services. The ability to reliably monitor acute CHD has been affected by new diagnostic tests for myocardial infarction (MI) and changing clinical classifications and management of CHD. Our study will develop new and reliable methods for monitoring population trends in incidence, outcomes and health service usage for acute CHD and chest pain. Methods and analysis The study cohort of all CHD will be identified from the Western Australian Data Linkage System using state-wide data sets for emergency department presentation, hospitalisations and mortality data for 2002–2014. This core linked data set will be supplemented with data from hospital medical record reviews, pathology data and hospital pharmacy dispensing databases. The consistency over time of the coding of the different subgroups of CHD/chest pain (ST-elevation MI, non-ST elevation MI, unstable angina, stable angina, other CHD, non-CHD chest pain) in linked data will be assessed using these data sources, and an algorithm developed detailing groups in which temporal trends can be reliably measured. This algorithm will be used for measurement of trends in incidence and outcomes of acute CHD, and to develop further methods for monitoring acute CHD using unlinked and linked data with varying availability of hospitalisation history. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of the WA Department of Health (#2016/23) and The University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/7230). Findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, and presentation at national and international conferences. There will also be a strong platform for dissemination of new monitoring methods via collaboration with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare which will assist with

  15. WIFIRE: A Scalable Data-Driven Monitoring, Dynamic Prediction and Resilience Cyberinfrastructure for Wildfires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altintas, I.; Block, J.; Braun, H.; de Callafon, R. A.; Gollner, M. J.; Smarr, L.; Trouve, A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent studies confirm that climate change will cause wildfires to increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades especially for California and in much of the North American West. The most critical sustainability issue in the midst of these ever-changing dynamics is how to achieve a new social-ecological equilibrium of this fire ecology. Wildfire wind speeds and directions change in an instant, and first responders can only be effective when they take action as quickly as the conditions change. To deliver information needed for sustainable policy and management in this dynamically changing fire regime, we must capture these details to understand the environmental processes. We are building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WIFIRE, for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. The WIFIRE integrated CI system supports social-ecological resilience to the changing fire ecology regime in the face of urban dynamics and climate change. Networked observations, e.g., heterogeneous satellite data and real-time remote sensor data is integrated with computational techniques in signal processing, visualization, modeling and data assimilation to provide a scalable, technological, and educational solution to monitor weather patterns to predict a wildfire's Rate of Spread. Our collaborative WIFIRE team of scientists, engineers, technologists, government policy managers, private industry, and firefighters architects implement CI pathways that enable joint innovation for wildfire management. Scientific workflows are used as an integrative distributed programming model and simplify the implementation of engineering modules for data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization while allowing integration with large-scale computing facilities. WIFIRE will be scalable to users with different skill-levels via specialized web interfaces and user-specified alerts for environmental events broadcasted to receivers before

  16. Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; De, S.; Goswami, B. N.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  17. Monitoring and predicting cognitive state and performance via physiological correlates of neuronal signals.

    PubMed

    Russo, Michael B; Stetz, Melba C; Thomas, Maria L

    2005-07-01

    Judgment, decision making, and situational awareness are higher-order mental abilities critically important to operational cognitive performance. Higher-order mental abilities rely on intact functioning of multiple brain regions, including the prefrontal, thalamus, and parietal areas. Real-time monitoring of individuals for cognitive performance capacity via an approach based on sampling multiple neurophysiologic signals and integrating those signals with performance prediction models potentially provides a method of supporting warfighters' and commanders' decision making and other operationally relevant mental processes and is consistent with the goals of augmented cognition. Cognitive neurophysiological assessments that directly measure brain function and subsequent cognition include positron emission tomography, functional magnetic resonance imaging, mass spectroscopy, near-infrared spectroscopy, magnetoencephalography, and electroencephalography (EEG); however, most direct measures are not practical to use in operational environments. More practical, albeit indirect measures that are generated by, but removed from the actual neural sources, are movement activity, oculometrics, heart rate, and voice stress signals. The goal of the papers in this section is to describe advances in selected direct and indirect cognitive neurophysiologic monitoring techniques as applied for the ultimate purpose of preventing operational performance failures. These papers present data acquired in a wide variety of environments, including laboratory, simulator, and clinical arenas. The papers discuss cognitive neurophysiologic measures such as digital signal processing wrist-mounted actigraphy; oculometrics including blinks, saccadic eye movements, pupillary movements, the pupil light reflex; and high-frequency EEG. These neurophysiological indices are related to cognitive performance as measured through standard test batteries and simulators with conditions including sleep loss

  18. Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in COAL IGCC Powerplants

    SciTech Connect

    Kenneth A. Yackly

    2004-09-30

    The ''Enabling & Information Technology To Increase RAM for Advanced Powerplants'' program, by DOE request, has been re-directed, de-scoped to two tasks, shortened to a 2-year period of performance, and refocused to develop, validate and accelerate the commercial use of enabling materials technologies and sensors for Coal IGCC powerplants. The new program has been re-titled as ''Enabling Technology for Monitoring & Predicting Gas Turbine Health & Performance in IGCC Powerplants'' to better match the new scope. This technical progress report summarizes the work accomplished in the reporting period April 1, 2004 to August 31, 2004 on the revised Re-Directed and De-Scoped program activity. The program Tasks are: Task 1--IGCC Environmental Impact on high Temperature Materials: This first materials task has been refocused to address Coal IGCC environmental impacts on high temperature materials use in gas turbines and remains in the program. This task will screen material performance and quantify the effects of high temperature erosion and corrosion of hot gas path materials in Coal IGCC applications. The materials of interest will include those in current service as well as advanced, high-performance alloys and coatings. Task 2--Material In-Service Health Monitoring: This second task develops and demonstrates new sensor technologies to determine the in-service health of advanced technology Coal IGCC powerplants, and remains in the program with a reduced scope. Its focus is now on only two critical sensor need areas for advanced Coal IGCC gas turbines: (1) Fuel Quality Sensor for detection of fuel impurities that could lead to rapid component degradation, and a Fuel Heating Value Sensor to rapidly determine the fuel heating value for more precise control of the gas turbine, and (2) Infra-Red Pyrometer to continuously measure the temperature of gas turbine buckets, nozzles, and combustor hardware.

  19. A Cloud Based Framework For Monitoring And Predicting Subsurface System Behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versteeg, R. J.; Rodzianko, A.; Johnson, D. V.; Soltanian, M. R.; Dwivedi, D.; Dafflon, B.; Tran, A. P.; Versteeg, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Subsurface system behavior is driven and controlled by the interplay of physical, chemical, and biological processes which occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Capabilities to monitor, understand and predict this behavior in an effective and timely manner are needed for both scientific purposes and for effective subsurface system management. Such capabilities require three elements: Models, Data and an enabling cyberinfrastructure, which allow users to use these models and data in an effective manner. Under a DOE Office of Science funded STTR award Subsurface Insights and LBNL have designed and implemented a cloud based predictive assimilation framework (PAF) which automatically ingests, controls quality and stores heterogeneous physical and chemical subsurface data and processes these data using different inversion and modeling codes to provide information on the current state and evolution of subsurface systems. PAF is implemented as a modular cloud based software application with five components: (1) data acquisition, (2) data management, (3) data assimilation and processing, (4) visualization and result delivery and (5) orchestration. Serverside PAF uses ZF2 (a PHP web application framework) and Python and both open source (ODM2) and in house developed data models. Clientside PAF uses CSS and JS to allow for interactive data visualization and analysis. Client side modularity (which allows for a responsive interface) of the system is achieved by implementing each core capability of PAF (such as data visualization, user configuration and control, electrical geophysical monitoring and email/SMS alerts on data streams) as a SPA (Single Page Application). One of the recent enhancements is the full integration of a number of flow and mass transport and parameter estimation codes (e.g., MODFLOW, MT3DMS, PHT3D, TOUGH, PFLOTRAN) in this framework. This integration allows for autonomous and user controlled modeling of hydrological and geochemical processes. In

  20. Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Endo, E.T.; Murray, T.

    1991-01-01

    Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to

  1. Quantitative electroencephalographic monitoring during myocardial revascularization predicts postoperative disorientation and improves outcome.

    PubMed

    Edmonds, H L; Griffiths, L K; van der Laken, J; Slater, A D; Shields, C B

    1992-03-01

    We evaluated computerized quantitative electroencephalography for the intraoperative detection of cerebral dysfunction. The quantitative electroencephalogram was recorded continuously during 96 myocardial revascularizations involving hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass using Cerebrovascular Intraoperative MONitor (CIMON) software. CIMON relies on an adaptive statistical approach to detect subtle, but clinically relevant, changes in electroencephalographic activity indicative of cerebrocortical dysfunction. Relative (percent of total) low-frequency (1.5 to 3.5 Hz) power was chosen as the single quantitative electroencephalographic descriptor because it is an established hallmark of cortical dysfunction and is surprisingly insensitive to moderate changes in body temperature and level of opioid anesthesia. Reference values for this measure were established for each patient after anesthetic induction before sternotomy. The large sample variance often seen in low-frequency power was dramatically decreased by using log-transformed data and allowing each patient to serve as his own control. Quantitative electroencephalographic changes in standard deviation units or z-scores were determined from the individualized reference self-norm. Prolonged (greater than 5 minutes) and statistically significant (greater than 3 standard deviation) focal increases in relative low-frequency power were temperature-corrected to determine a standardized cerebrocortical dysfunction time at 37 degrees C. (CDT37). In phase I (n = 48), this objective quantitative electroencephalogram-based numeric descriptor was used to predict neuropsychologic outcome. These CDT37 greater than 5-minute episodes occurred 38 times in 19 patients. The quantitative electroencephalogram-based descriptor predicted the occurrence of such disorientation (n = 14 or 29%) with a 68% false positive rate but only an 8% false negative rate. Since these intraoperative quantitative electroencephalographic episodes were often

  2. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, N.; Abhilash, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Sharmila, S.; de, S.; Goswami, B.; Kumar, A.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  3. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  4. Prediction of self-monitoring compliance: application of the theory of planned behaviour to chronic illness sufferers.

    PubMed

    McGuckin, Conor; Prentice, Garry R; McLaughlin, Christopher G; Harkin, Emma

    2012-01-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes and asthma are chronic illnesses that affect a substantial number of people. The continued high cost of clinic- and hospital-based care provision in these areas could be reduced by patients self-monitoring their condition more effectively. Such a move requires an understanding of how to predict self-monitoring compliance. Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB) makes it possible to predict those clients who will comply with medical guidelines, prescription drug intake and self-monitoring behaviours (peak flow or blood sugar levels). Ninety-seven clients attending a medical centre located in a large urbanised area of Northern Ireland completed TPB questionnaires. Significant amounts of variance explained by the TPB model indicated its usefulness as a predictor of self-monitoring behaviour intentions in the sample. The results also highlighted the importance of subjective norm and perceived behavioural control within the TPB in predicting intentions. The utility of the TPB in this study also provides evidence for health promotion professionals that costly clinic/hospital treatment provision can be reduced, whilst also being satisfied with ongoing client self-monitoring of their condition. PMID:22111866

  5. Multi-Scale Monitoring and Prediction of System Responses to Biostimulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hubbard, Susan; Williams, Ken; Steefel, Carl; Long, Phil; Kinsong Chen, Slater, Lee; Banfield, Jill

    2006-04-05

    To advance solutions needed for remediation of DOE contaminated sites, approaches are needed that can elucidate and predict reactions associated with coupled biological, geochemical, and hydrological processes over a variety of spatial scales and in heterogeneous environments. Our laboratory experimental experiments, which were conducted under controlled conditions, suggest that geophysical methods have the potential for elucidating system transformations that often occur during remediation, such as the generation of gases and precipitates. In this new ERSP project, we will Integrate hydrological, biogeochemical, and geophysical expertise and approaches to: (1) Explore the potential of geophysical methods for detecting changes in physical, chemical, and biological properties at the field scale; and (2) Explore the joint use of reactive transport modeling and geophysical monitoring information for improvements in both methods. A brief review of our previously-conducted laboratory results are given in Section II. Section III describes the approach for our new project, which will have both laboratory and field-scale components. The field scale component will be conducted at the Rifle, CO. site, which is described in Section IV.

  6. Future clinical uses of neurophysiological biomarkers to predict and monitor treatment response for schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Light, Gregory A.; Swerdlow, Neal R.

    2015-01-01

    Advances in psychiatric neuroscience have transformed our understanding of impaired and spared brain functions in psychotic illnesses. Despite substantial progress, few if any laboratory tests have graduated to clinics to inform diagnoses, guide treatments, and monitor treatment response. Providers must rely on careful behavioral observation and interview techniques to make inferences about patients’ inner experiences and then secondary deductions about impacted neural systems. Development of more effective treatments has also been hindered by a lack of translational quantitative biomarkers that can span the brain–behavior–treatment knowledge gap. Here, we describe an example of a simple, low-cost, and translatable electroencephalography (EEG) measure that offers promise for improving our understanding and treatment of psychotic illnesses: mismatch negativity (MMN). MMN is sensitive to and/or predicts response to some pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions and accounts for substantial portions of variance in clinical, cognitive, and psychosocial functioning in schizophrenia. This measure has recently been validated for use in large-scale multisite clinical studies of schizophrenia. Lastly, MMN greatly improves our ability to forecast which individuals at high clinical risk actually develop a psychotic illness. These attributes suggest that MMN can contribute to personalized biomarker-guided treatment strategies aimed at ameliorating or even preventing the onset of psychosis. PMID:25752648

  7. The Source Physics Experiments and Advances in Seismic Explosion Monitoring Predictive Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Antoun, T.; Pitarka, A.; Xu, H.; Vorobiev, O.; Rodgers, A.; Pyle, M. L.

    2012-12-01

    Despite many years of study, a number of seismic explosion phenomena remain incompletely understood. These include the generation of S-waves, the variation of absolute amplitudes with emplacement media differences, and the occasional generation of reversed Rayleigh waves. Advances in numerical methods and increased computational power have improved the physics contained in the modeling software and it is possible to couple non-linear source-region effects to far-field propagation codes to predict seismic observables, thereby allowing end-to-end modeling. However, despite the many sensor records from prior nuclear tests, the data available to develop and validate the simulation codes remain limited in important ways. This is particularly the case for the range of both scaled depths of burial and of source media, especially where full near-field to far-field records are available along with key quantitative parameter data such as depth, material properties and yield. For example, two of the most widely used seismic source models, both derived from the best empirical data, Mueller and Murphy (1971) and Denny and Johnson (1989), predict very different amplitudes for greatly overburied explosions. To provide new data to advance predictive explosion modeling capabilities, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is carrying out a series of seven chemical explosions over a range of depths and sizes in the Source Physics Experiments (SPE). These shots are taking place in the Climax Stock granite at the Nevada National Security Site, the location where reversed Rayleigh waves from a nuclear test were first observed in the 1962 HARDHAT event (e.g. Brune and Pomeroy, 1963). Three of the SPE shots have successfully occurred so far, and were well-recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation including seismic, acoustic, EM, and remote sensing. In parallel, detailed site characterization has been conducted using geologic mapping and sampling, borehole geophysics

  8. DoD-GEIS Rift Valley Fever Monitoring and Prediction System as a Tool for Defense and US Diplomacy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Witt, Clara J.; Gaydos, Joel C.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 10 years the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) partnering with NASA'S Goddard Space Flight Center and USDA's USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology established and have operated the Rift Valley fever Monitoring and Prediction System to monitor, predict and assess the risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks and other vector-borne diseases over Africa and the Middle East. This system is built on legacy DoD basic research conducted by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research overseas laboratory (US Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya) and the operational satellite environmental monitoring by NASA GSFC. Over the last 10 years of operation the system has predicted outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, South Africa and Mauritania. The ability to predict an outbreak several months before it occurs provides early warning to protect deployed forces, enhance public health in concerned countries and is a valuable tool use.d by the State Department in US Diplomacy. At the international level the system has been used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to support their monitoring, surveillance and response programs in the livestock sector and human health. This project is a successful testament of leveraging resources of different federal agencies to achieve objectives of force health protection, health and diplomacy.

  9. Testing a Multi-Stage Screening System: Predicting Performance on Australia's National Achievement Test Using Teachers' Ratings of Academic and Social Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kettler, Ryan J.; Elliott, Stephen N.; Davies, Michael; Griffin, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This study addresses the predictive validity of results from a screening system of academic enablers, with a sample of Australian elementary school students, when the criterion variable is end-of-year achievement. The investigation included (a) comparing the predictive validity of a brief criterion-referenced nomination system with more…

  10. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. I. Natural occurrence of myxomatosis.

    PubMed

    Merchant, J C; Kerr, P J; Simms, N G; Robinson, A J

    2003-02-01

    A survey of rabbit populations in the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, was carried out to establish the pattern of occurrence of myxomatosis in preparation for a deliberate release of myxoma virus. Myxomatosis was first detected in December and cases were found on most sites through to May. The serological profiles of rabbit populations suggested that their susceptibility to myxoma virus was generally low in winter and highest in spring and summer reflecting the presence of increasing numbers of susceptible young rabbits. This was consistent with the pattern of rabbit breeding, as determined from the distribution of births and reproductive activity in females and males, which occurred maximally in spring and early summer. The serology and age structure of rabbit populations on sites suggested that some rabbit populations can escape an annual myxomatosis epizootic. Although fleas were present on rabbits throughout the year and therefore not considered to be a limiting factor in the spread of myxomatosis, their numbers peaked at times coincident with peak rabbit breeding. It was concluded that mid to late spring was an optimal time for a deliberate release. PMID:12613753

  11. Plant functional types are more efficient than climate in predicting spectrums of trait variation in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Togashi, H. F.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Atkin, O. K.; Bloomfield, K. J.; Bradford, M.; Weerasinghe, L. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Evans, B. J.; Liddell, M. J.; Wang, H.; Cao, K. F.; Fan, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The representation of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) in current generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) is excessively simplistically. Key ecophysiological properties, such as photosynthesis biochemistry, are most times merely averaged and trade-off with other plant traits is often neglected. Validation of a PFT framework based in photosynthetic process is crucial to improve reliability of DGVMs. We present 431 leaf-biochemical and wood level measurements in evergreen angiosperm trees of tropical forests in Australia and China that were divided in four spectrums of plant trait variation: metabolic, structural, hydraulic and height dimensions. Plant traits divided in each of these dimensions adopt survival strategies reflected more clearly by trade-off within each spectrum, and in some extent across spectrums. Co-ordination theory (that Rubisco- and electron-transport limited rates of photosynthesis are co-limiting) and least-coast theory (that intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration minimizes the combined costs per unit carbon assimilation, regulating maximum height and wood density) expectations matched PFT (which takes in account canopy position and light access, and life spam) variation. Our findings suggest that climate (air moisture, air temperature, light) has lower power representing these dimensions, in comparison to the PFT framework.

  12. Monitors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, David

    1984-01-01

    Provides guidelines for selecting a monitor to suit specific applications, explains the process by which graphics images are produced on a CRT monitor, and describes four types of flat-panel displays being used in the newest lap-sized portable computers. A comparison chart provides prices and specifications for over 80 monitors. (MBR)

  13. Predictive Value of Somatosensory Evoked Potential Monitoring during Resection of Intraparenchymal and Intraventricular Tumors Using an Endoscopic Port

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Daniel; Engh, Jonathan; Habeych, Miguel; Crammond, Donald; Balzer, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Background and Purpose Intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) using upper and lower somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) is an established technique used to predict and prevent neurologic injury during intracranial tumor resections. Endoscopic port surgery (EPS) is a minimally-invasive approach to deep intraparenchymal and intraventricular brain tumors. The authors intended to evaluate the predictive value of SSEP monitoring during resection of intracranial brain tumors using a parallel endoscopic technique. Methods A retrospective review was conducted of patients operated on from 2007-2010 utilizing IONM in whom endoscopic ports were used to remove either intraparenchymal or intraventricular tumors. Cases were eligible for review if an endoscopic port was used to resect an intracranial tumor and the electronic chart included all intraoperative monitoring data as well as pre- and post-operative neurologic exams. Results 139 EPS cases met criteria for inclusion. Eighty five patients (61%) had intraparenchymal and fifty four (39%) had intraventricular tumors or colloid cysts. SSEP changes were seen in eleven cases (7.9%), being irreversible in three (2.2%) and reversible in eight cases (5.8%). Seven patients (5.0%) with intraparenchymal tumors had SSEP changes which met our criterea for significant changes while there were four (2.9%) with intraventricular (p-value=0.25). Five patients suffered post operative deficits, two reversible and two irreversible SSEP changes. Only one case exhibited post operative hemiparesis with no SSEP changes. The positive predictive value of SSEP was 45.4% and the negative predictive value was 99.2%. Conclusions Based on the high negative and low positive predictive values, the utility of SSEP monitoring for cylindrical port resections may be limited. However, the use of SSEP monitoring can be helpful in reducing the impact of endoscopic port manipulation when the tumor is closer to the somatosensory pathway. PMID

  14. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes : Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student's to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation's prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  15. An Analysis of Predicted vs. Monitored Space Heat Energy Use in 120 Homes :Residential Construction Demonstration Project Cycle II.

    SciTech Connect

    Douglass, John G.; Young, Marvin; Washington State Energy Office.

    1991-10-01

    The SUNDAY thermal simulation program was used to predict space heat energy consumption for 120 energy efficient homes. The predicted data were found to explain 43.8 percent of the variation in monitored space heat consumption. Using a paired Student`s to test, no statistically significant difference could be found between mean predicted space heat and monitored space heat for the entire sample of homes. The homes were grouped into seven classes, sub-samples by total heat loss coefficient. An intermediate class (UA = 300--350 Btu/{degrees}F) was found to significantly over-predict space heat by 25 percent. The same class was over-predicted by 16 percent in the analogous Cycle 1 research, but the sample size was smaller and this was not found to be statistically significant. Several variables that were not directly included as inputs to the simulation were examined with an analysis of covariance model for their ability to improve the simulation`s prediction of space heat. The variables having the greatest effect were conditioned floor area, heating system type, and foundation type. The model was able to increase the coefficient of determination from 0.438 to 0.670; a 54 percent increase. While the SUNDAY simulation program to aggregate is able to predict space heat consumption, it should be noted that there is a considerable amount of variation in both the monitored space heat consumption and the SUNDAY predictions. The ability of the program to accurately model an individual house will be constrained by both the quality of input variables and the range of occupant behavior. These constraints apply to any building model.

  16. Space weather activities in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, D.

    Space Weather Plan Australia has a draft space weather plan to drive and focus appropriate research into services that meet future industry and social needs. The Plan has three main platforms, space weather monitoring and service delivery, support for priority research, and outreach to the community. The details of monitoring, service, research and outreach activities are summarised. A ground-based network of 14 monitoring stations from Antarctica to Papua New Guinea is operated by IPS, a government agency. These sites monitor ionospheric and geomagnetic characteristics, while two of them also monitor the sun at radio and optical wavelengths. Services provided through the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) include real-time information on the solar, space, ionospheric and geomagnetic environments. Data are gathered automatically from monitoring sites and integrated with data exchanged internationally to create snapshots of current space weather conditions and forecasts of conditions up to several days ahead. IPS also hosts the WDC for Solar-Terrestrial Science and specialises in ground-based solar, ionospheric, and geomagnetic data sets, although recent in-situ magnetospheric measurements are also included. Space weather activities A research consortium operates the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER), an HF southward pointing auroral radar operating from Hobart (Tasmania). A second cooperative radar (Unwin radar) is being constructed in the South Island of New Zealand. This will intersect with TIGER over the auroral zone and enhance the ability of the radar to image the surge of currents that herald space environment changes entering the Polar Regions. Launched in November 2002, the micro satellite FEDSAT, operated by the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems, has led to successful space science programs and data streams. FEDSAT is making measurements of the magnetic field over Australia and higher latitudes. It also carries a

  17. Integrating Real-time and Manual Monitored Soil Moisture Data to Predict Hillslope Soil Moisture Variations with High Temporal Resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Qing; Lv, Ligang; Zhou, Zhiwen; Liao, Kaihua

    2016-04-01

    Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture 15 has been remaining an challenge to be better understood. A trade-off exists between spatial coverage and temporal resolution when using the manual and real-time soil moisture monitoring methods. This restricted the comprehensive and intensive examination of soil moisture dynamics. In this study, we aimed to integrate the manual and real-time monitored soil moisture to depict the hillslope dynamics of soil moisture with good spatial coverage and temporal resolution. Linear (stepwise multiple linear regression-SMLR) and non-linear models (support vector machines-SVM) were used to predict soil moisture at 38 manual sites (collected 1-2 times per month) with soil moisture automatically collected at three real-time monitoring sites (collected every 5 mins). By comparing the accuracies of SMLR and SVM for each manual site, optimal soil moisture prediction model of this site was then determined. Results show that soil moisture at these 38 manual sites can be reliably predicted (root mean square errors<0.035 m3 m-3) using this approach. Absence or occurrence of subsurface flow can probably influence the choosing of SMLR or SVM in the prediction, respectively. Depth to bedrock, elevation, topographic wetness index, profile curvature, and relative difference of soil moisture and its standard deviation influenced the selection of prediction model since they related to the dynamics of soil water distribution and movement. By using this approach, hillslope soil moisture spatial distributions at un-sampled times and dates were predicted after a typical rainfall event. Missing information of hillslope soil moisture dynamics was then acquired successfully. This can be benefit for determining the hot spots and moments of soil water movement, as well as designing the proper soil moisture monitoring plan at the field scale.

  18. Coping with drought: A High Resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System for the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest (PNW) region in North America (defined here as the Columbia and Klamath River basins plus the coastal drainages) is a diverse geographic region with complex topography and a variety of climates. Agriculture (dryland and irrigated), forestry, fisheries, and hydropower provide significant economic benefit to the region and are directly dependent on the availability of sufficient water at the right time. Additional demands are made on water supplies by recreation, ecosystem services and emerging needs such as hydropower generation in support of wind energy integration. Several major droughts have occurred over the region in recent decades (notably 1977, 2001, and 2004), which have had significant consequences for the region's agricultural, hydropower production, and environment. An emerging need for the region is the coordination of existing regional climate activities, including a better awareness of the current water availability conditions across the region. The University of Washington has operated a surface water monitor for the continental United States since 2005, which provides near real-time estimates of surface water conditions at a spatial resolution of 1/2 degree in terms of soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and total moisture based on a suite of land surface models. A higher resolution Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (DMPS) for Washington State was originally implemented at 1/8 degree and later increased to 1/16 degree. This presentation describes the extension of this system to the entire PNW region at 1/16 degree. The expanded system provides daily updates of three primary drought-related indices based on near real-time station observations in the region: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMP). To make the drought measures relevant to water managers, surface water conditions are not only reported on a gridded map, but watershed-level drought summary

  19. Heron Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Heron Island is located at the sourthern end of Australia's 2,050 km-long Great Barrier Reef. Surrounded by coral reef and home to over 1000 species of fish, scuba divers and scientists alike are drawn to the island's resort and research station. The true-color image above was taken by Space Imaging's Ikonos satellite with a resolution of 4 meters per pixel-high enough to see individual boats tied up at the small marina. The narrow channel leading from the marina to the ocean was blasted and dredged decades ago, before the island became a national park. Since then the Australian government has implemented conservation measures, such as limiting the number of tourists and removing or recycling, instead of incinerating, all trash. One of the applications of remote sensing data from Ikonos is environmental monitoring, including studies of coral reef health. For more information about the island, read Heron Island. Image by Robert Simmon, based on data copyright Space Imaging

  20. Model-based evaluation of subsurface monitoring networks for improved efficiency and predictive certainty of regional groundwater models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosses, M. J.; Wöhling, Th.; Moore, C. R.; Dann, R.; Scott, D. M.; Close, M.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater resources worldwide are increasingly under pressure. Demands from different local stakeholders add to the challenge of managing this resource. In response, groundwater models have become popular to make predictions about the impact of different management strategies and to estimate possible impacts of changes in climatic conditions. These models can assist to find optimal management strategies that comply with the various stakeholder needs. Observations of the states of the groundwater system are essential for the calibration and evaluation of groundwater flow models, particularly when they are used to guide the decision making process. On the other hand, installation and maintenance of observation networks are costly. Therefore it is important to design monitoring networks carefully and cost-efficiently. In this study, we analyse the Central Plains groundwater aquifer (~ 4000 km2) between the Rakaia and Waimakariri rivers on the Eastern side of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. The large sedimentary groundwater aquifer is fed by the two alpine rivers and by recharge from the land surface. The area is mainly under agricultural land use and large areas of the land are irrigated. The other major water use is the drinking water supply for the city of Christchurch. The local authority in the region, Environment Canterbury, maintains an extensive groundwater quantity and quality monitoring programme to monitor the effects of land use and discharges on groundwater quality, and the suitability of the groundwater for various uses, especially drinking-water supply. Current and projected irrigation water demand has raised concerns about possible impacts on groundwater-dependent lowland streams. We use predictive uncertainty analysis and the Central Plains steady-state groundwater flow model to evaluate the worth of pressure head observations in the existing groundwater well monitoring network. The data worth of particular observations is dependent on the problem

  1. A model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Jaby, Ali

    A CANDU fuel element becomes defective when the Zircaloy-4 sheath is breached, allowing high pressure heavy water (D2O) coolant to enter the fuel-to-sheath gap, thereby creating a direct path for fission products (mainly volatile species of iodine and noble gases) and fuel debris to escape into the primary heat transport system (PHTS). In addition, the entry of D 2O coolant into the fuel-to-sheath gap may cause the UO2 fuel to oxidize, which in turn can augment the rate of fission product release into the PHTS. The release of fission products and fuel debris into the PHTS will elevate circuit contamination levels, consequently increasing radiation exposure to station personnel during maintenance tasks. Moreover, the continued operation of a defective fuel element may diminish its thermal performance due to fuel oxidation effects. It is therefore desirable to discharge defective fuel as soon as possible. Hence, a better understanding of defective fuel behaviour is required in order to develop an improved methodology for fuel-failure monitoring and PHTS coolant activity prediction. A mathematical model has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and PHTS coolant as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operations including steady-state operation as well as reactor shutdown, startup, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the PHTS coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. Moreover, a method to approximate both the burnup and the amount of the tramp uranium deposits in-core, as well as the tramp uranium fission rate is proposed. The model has been implemented as the STAR (Steady-state and Transient Activity Release) stand-alone code written in the C++ programming language using a custom developed finite-difference variable-mesh (FDVM) numerical

  2. Three Conservation Applications of Astronaut Photographs of Earth: Tidal Flat Loss (Japan), Elephant Impacts on Vegetation (Botswana), and Seagrass and Mangrove Monitoring (Australia)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Robinson, Julie A.; Minorukashiwagi; Maggiesuzuki; Duanenellis, M.; Bussing, Charles E.; Leelong, W. J.; McKenzie, Andlen J.

    2000-01-01

    NASA photographs taken from low Earth orbit can provide information relevant to conservation biology. This data source is now more accessible due to improvements in digitizing technology, Internet file transfer, and availability of image processing software. We present three examples of conservation-related projects that benefited from using orbital photographs. (1) A time series of photographs from the Space Shuttle showing wetland conversion in Japan was used as a tool for communicating about the impacts of tidal flat loss. Real-time communication with astronauts about a newsworthy event resulted in acquiring current imagery. These images and the availability of other high resolution digital images from NASA provided timely public information on the observed changes. (2) A Space Shuttle photograph of Chobe National Park in Botswana was digitally classified and analyzed to identify the locations of elephant-impacted woodland. Field validation later confirmed that areas identified on the image showed evidence of elephant impacts. (3) A summary map from intensive field surveys of seagrasses in Shoalwater Bay, Australia was used as reference data for a supervised classification of a digitized photograph taken from orbit. The classification was able to distinguish seagrasses, sediments and mangroves with accuracy approximating that in studies using other satellite remote sensing data. Orbital photographs are in the public domain and the database of nearly 400,000 photographs from the late 1960s to the present is available at a single searchable location on the Internet. These photographs can be used by conservation biologists for general information about the landscape and in quantitative applications.

  3. Monitoring the incidence and causes of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia: Annual report of the OzFoodNet network, 2011.

    PubMed

    2015-06-01

    This report summarises the incidence of diseases potentially transmitted by food in Australia and details outbreaks associated with food in 2011. OzFoodNet sites reported 30,957 notifications of 9 diseases or conditions that may be transmitted by food. The most commonly notified infections were Campylobacter (17,733 notifications) followed by Salmonella (12,271 notifications). The most frequently notified Salmonella serotype was Salmonella Typhimurium, accounting for 48% of all Salmonella notifications. OzFoodNet sites also reported 1,719 outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness affecting 29,839 people and resulting in 872 people being hospitalised and 103 associated deaths. The majority of outbreaks (79% 1,352/1,719) were due to person-to-person transmission, 9% (151/1,719) were suspected or confirmed to be foodborne, 11% (192/1,719) were due to an unknown mode of transmission, 19 were due to community based Salmonella clusters, four were due to waterborne or suspected waterborne transmission and 1 outbreak was due to animal-to-person transmission. Foodborne and suspected foodborne outbreaks affected 2,104 persons and included 231 hospitalisations. There were 5 deaths reported during these outbreaks. Salmonella was the most common aetiological agent identified in foodborne outbreaks and restaurants were the most frequently reported food preparation setting. A single food source of infection was identified for 49 outbreaks, 26 of which were associated with the consumption of dishes containing raw or minimally cooked eggs and all of these outbreaks were due to S. Typhimurium. These data assist agencies to document sources of foodborne disease, develop food safety policies, and prevent foodborne illness. PMID:26234259

  4. Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  5. Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has

  6. Community Music in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Gillian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a historical perspective to the development of community music in Australia. Finding political support in Australia's progressive arts policies of the late 1970s, community music is discussed as embracing the principles of access and equity and supporting the development of musical skills in the context of social change and…

  7. Online Training in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuzic, Joze

    2013-01-01

    On-line training is becoming an interesting phenomenon in Australia and has attracted a lot of interest across many industries and businesses (Chan and Ngai, 2007). The research reported here looks at the use of online training in corporations in Australia. It focuses on two aspects of online training, the factors that "warrant" its…

  8. Lake Eyre, Simpson Desert, South Australia, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Lake Eyre, Simpson Desert, South Australia, Australia (27.0S, 136.0E) is normally a dry lakebed for years on end. However on rare occasions small amounts of rainfall are recorded and ponding can be seen in low parts of the lake, as in this image, where an algae bloom in the water is seen as a dark pink area on the lakebed. The Finke Riverbed intersects Lake Eyre but it is normally a dry wash and seldom contributes water to the lake.

  9. Women Astronomers: Australia: Women astronomers in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhathal, Ragbir

    2001-08-01

    Ragbir Bhathal summarizes the role played by women astronomers in Australia's astronomy, now and in the past. Australia has a great tradition in astronomy, from the early observations of Aboriginal people through the colonial drive to explore and understand, culminating in the established excellence of research there today. Women have contributed to this achievement in no small way, yet their contribution has been unremarked, if not ignored. Here I summarize the historical and present state of affairs and look forward to a brighter and more equitable future.

  10. Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks: Example applications from the Great Lakes water availability pilot project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Reeves, Howard W.

    2010-01-01

    The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

  11. Comparison of model predictions with the data of an urban air quality monitoring network in Izmir, Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elbir, Tolga

    The CALMET meteorological model and its puff dispersion model CALPUFF were used to predict dispersion of the sulfur dioxide emissions from industrial and domestic heating sources in Izmir, the third biggest province in Turkey. The modeling domain covered an area of 80×100 km centered at the metropolitan area of Izmir with grid spacing of 1000 m. Statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate the model performance by comparing the predicted and measured time series of sulfur dioxide concentrations at four monitoring stations using two main methods: root of the mean square error (RMSE) and an index of agreement (d). The index of agreement varied from 0.51 to 0.77 at four monitoring stations and the total RMSE ranged from 0.36 to 0.66 for the year 2000. The overall model performance for four monitoring stations was found good with an accuracy of about 68%. The agreement of model predictions and measurements was better for two urban monitoring stations (Karsiyaka and Bornova), compared with the other urban stations (Alsancak and Konak).

  12. Tritium monitoring in groundwater and evaluation of model predictions for the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Barnett, D.B.; Bergeron, M.P.; Cole, C.R.; Freshley, M.D.; Wurstner, S.K.

    1997-08-01

    The Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) disposal site, also known as the State-Approved Land Disposal Site (SALDS), receives treated effluent containing tritium, which is allowed to infiltrate through the soil column to the water table. Tritium was first detected in groundwater monitoring wells around the facility in July 1996. The SALDS groundwater monitoring plan requires revision of a predictive groundwater model and reevaluation of the monitoring well network one year from the first detection of tritium in groundwater. This document is written primarily to satisfy these requirements and to report on analytical results for tritium in the SALDS groundwater monitoring network through April 1997. The document also recommends an approach to continued groundwater monitoring for tritium at the SALDS. Comparison of numerical groundwater models applied over the last several years indicate that earlier predictions, which show tritium from the SALDS approaching the Columbia River, were too simplified or overly robust in source assumptions. The most recent modeling indicates that concentrations of tritium above 500 pCi/L will extend, at most, no further than {approximately}1.5 km from the facility, using the most reasonable projections of ETF operation. This extent encompasses only the wells in the current SALDS tritium-tracking network.

  13. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  14. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  15. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-01-01

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  16. Predicted decline of protected whales based on molecular genetic monitoring of Japanese and Korean markets.

    PubMed

    Baker, C S; Lento, G M; Cipriano, F; Palumbi, S R

    2000-06-22

    the International Whaling Commission. For the range of exploitation consistent with the market sample, this protected stock was predicted to decline towards extinction over the next few decades. These results confirmed the power of molecular methods in monitoring retail markets and pointed to the inadequacy of the current moratorium for ensuring the recovery of protected species. More importantly, the integration of genetic evidence with a model of population dynamics identified an urgent need for actions to limit undocumented exploitation of a 'protected' stock of whales. PMID:10902685

  17. Monitoring and restabilizing structures under external excitations through detection and prediction of changes in structural properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebastijanovic, Nebojsa

    The primary goal of this dissertation is the development of methods for prediction and detection of damage in structures under external excitations through the use of sensors and actuators. The first example involves developing an active flutter suppression algorithm for a flat panel in flight and space vehicles using embedded piezoceramic actuators. A basic eigenvector orientation approach is used to evaluate the possibility of controlling the onset of panel flutter. Eigenvectors for two consecutive modes are usually orthogonal and the onset of flutter condition can be observed earlier as they start to lose their orthogonality. Piezoelectric layers are assumed to be bonded to the top and bottom surfaces of the panel in order to provide counter-bending moments at joints between elements. The controllers are designed to modify the stiffness of the structure and re-stabilize the system; as a result, flutter occurrence can be offset to a higher flutter speed. To illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed method, several simple wide beam examples using piezoelectric layers as actuators are studied and presented. Controllers based on different control objectives are considered and the effects of control moment locations are studied. Potential applications of this basic method may be straightforwardly applied to plate and shell structures of laminated composites. The second example includes developing a method for detecting, locating, and quantifying structural damage using acceleration measurements as feedback. This method directly uses time domain structural vibration measurements and the effects of different damages are decoupled in the controller design. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with illustrative examples of a three and an eight-story model as well as a single story steel frame model with changes in joint flexibility. Finally, the progress on developing a hybrid structural health monitoring system is presented through

  18. On the identification of representative in situ soil moisture monitoring stations for the validation of SMAP soil moisture products in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yee, Mei Sun; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Monerris, Alessandra; Rüdiger, Christoph; Jackson, Thomas J.

    2016-06-01

    The high spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture complicates the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture products using in situ monitoring stations. Therefore, a standard methodology for selecting the most representative stations for the purpose of validating satellites and land surface models is essential. Based on temporal stability and geostatistical studies using long-term soil moisture records, intensive ground measurements and airborne soil moisture products, this study investigates the representativeness of soil moisture monitoring stations within the Yanco study area for the validation of NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products at 3 km for radar, 9 km for radar-radiometer and 36 km for radiometer pixels. This resulted in the identification of a number of representative stations according to the different scales. Although the temporal stability method was found to be suitable for identifying representative stations, stations based on the mean relative difference (MRD) were not necessarily the most representative of the areal average. Moreover, those identified from standard deviation of the relative difference (SDRD) may be dry-biased. It was also found that in the presence of heterogeneous land use, stations should be weighted based on proportions of agricultural land. Airborne soil moisture products were also shown to provide useful a priori information for identifying representative locations. Finally, recommendations are made regarding the design of future networks for satellite validation, and specifically the most representative stations for the Yanco area.

  19. Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco

    PubMed Central

    Scollo, Michelle; Zacher, Meghan; Durkin, Sarah; Wakefield, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To test for early evidence whether, following the standardisation of tobacco packaging, smokers in Australia were—as predicted by the tobacco industry—less likely to purchase from small mixed business retailers, more likely to purchase cheap brands imported from Asia and more likely to use illicit tobacco. Design Serial cross-sectional population telephone surveys in November 2011 (a year prior to implementation), 2012 (during roll-out) and 2013 (a year after implementation). Setting/participants Smokers aged 18 years and over identified in an annual population survey in the Australian state of Victoria (2011: n=754; 2012: n=590; 2013: n=601). Main outcome measures Changes between 2011 and 2013 in: proportions of current smokers who purchased their last cigarette from discount outlets such as supermarkets compared with small mixed business retail outlets; prevalence of regular use of low-cost brands imported from Asia and use of unbranded tobacco. Results The proportion of smokers purchasing from supermarkets did not increase between 2011 (65.4%) and 2013 (65.7%; p=0.98), and the percentage purchasing from small mixed business outlets did not decline (2011: 9.2%; 2012: 11.2%; p=0.32). The prevalence of low-cost Asian brands was low and did not increase between 2011 (1.1%) and 2013 (0.9%; p=0.98). The proportion reporting current use of unbranded illicit tobacco was 2.3% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2013 (p=0.46). In 2013, 2.6% of cigarette smokers reported having purchased one or more packets of cigarettes in non-compliant packaging in the past 3 months; 1.7% had purchased one or more packets from an informal seller in the past year. Conclusions One year after implementation, this study found no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker patrons from small retail outlets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco predicted by opponents of plain packaging in Australia. PMID:25168041

  20. Incorporating remote sensing data in crop model to monitor crop growth and predict yield in regional area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jianmao; Lu, Weisong; Zhang, Guoping; Qian, Yonglan; Yu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiahua

    2006-12-01

    Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield predicting is very important to food security and agricultural sustainable development. Crop models can be forceful tools for monitoring crop growth status and predicting yield over homogeneous areas, however, their application to a larger spatial domains is hampered by lack of sufficient spatial information about model inputs, such as the value of some of their parameters and initial conditions, which may have great difference between regions even fields. The use of remote sensing data helps to overcome this problem. By incorporating remote sensing data into the WOFOST crop model (through LAI), it is possible to incorporate remote sensing variables (vegetation index) for each point of the spatial domain, and it is possible for this point to re-estimate new values of the parameters or initial conditions, to which the model is particularly sensitive. This paper describes the use of such a method on a local scale, for winter wheat, focusing on the parameters describing emergence and early crop growth. These processes vary greatly depending on the soil, climate and seedbed preparation, and affect yield significantly. The WOFOST crop model is calibrated under standard conditions and then evaluated under test conditions to which the emergence and early growth parameters of the WOFOST model are adjusted by incorporating remote sensing data. The inversion of the combined model allows us to accurately monitoring crop growth status and predicting yield on a regional scale.

  1. Drought monitoring through parallel computing

    SciTech Connect

    Burrage, K.; Belward, J.; Lau, L.; Rezny, M.; Young, R.

    1993-12-31

    One area where high performance computing can make a significant social and economic impact in Australia (especially in view of the recent El-Nino) is in the accurate and efficient monitoring and prediction of drought conditions - both in terms of speed of calculation and in high quality visualization. As a consequence, the Queensland Department of Primary Industries (DPI) is developing a spatial model of pasture growth and utilization for monitoring, assessment and prediction of the future of the state`s rangeloads. This system incorporates soil class, pasture type, tree cover, herbivore density and meterological data. DPI`s drought research program aims to predict the occurrence of feed deficits and land condition alerts on a quarter to half shire basis over Queensland. This will provide a basis for large-scale management decisions by graziers and politicians alike.

  2. MOBILESAT: Australia's own

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagg, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Australia will be introducing a dedicated Mobile Satellite Communications System following the launch of the AUSSAT-B satellites late in 1991. The Mobile Satellite System, MOBILESAT, will provide circuit switched voice/data services and packet-switched data services for land, aeronautical and maritime users. Here, an overview is given of the development program being undertaken within Australia to enable a fully commercial service to be introduced in 1992.

  3. Monitoring and modeling the multi-time-scale seismic hazard of the southern Longmenshan fault: an experimental design of the `monitoring and modeling for prediction' system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Z.; Li, L.; Liu, G.; Jiang, C.; Ma, H.

    2010-12-01

    To the southwest of the WFSD-I and WFSD-II is the southern part of the Longmenshan fault, which has been keeping quiet since the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan earthquake which ruptured the middle and the northern part of the Longmenshan fault zone. The seismic hazard in this reason is one of the concerns not only in the WFSD project but also in the regional sustainability. This presentation tries to discuss the following three major problems related to the seismic hazard of this fault segment: 1) If there were a major earthquake rupturing this fault segment, what would be the ‘scenario rupture’ preparing and occurring; 2) Based on this concept of ‘scenario rupture’, how to design the ‘monitoring and modeling for prediction’ system in this region, for the effective constraint of geodynamic models for earthquake preparation, the effective monitoring of potentially pre-seismic changes of geophysical fields, and the effective test of the predictive models and/or algorithms; and 3) what will be the potential contribution of the WFSD project, in both long-term sense and short-term sense, to the monitoring and modeling of seismic hazard in this region. In considering these three questions, lessons and experiences from the Wenchuan earthquake plays an important role, and the relation between the Xianshuihe fault and the Longmenshan fault is one of the critical issues subject to consideration. Considering the state-of-the-art of earthquake science and social needs, the monitoring and modeling endeavor should be dealing with different time scales considering both scientific issues and decision-making issues. Taking the lessons and experiences of the previously-conducted earthquake prediction experiment sites, we propose a concept ‘seismological engineering’ (which is different from either ‘earthquake engineering’ or ‘engineering seismology’) dealing with the design of the operational multi-disciplinary observation system oriented at the monitoring and

  4. Predictable pollution: an assessment of weather balloons and associated impacts on the marine environment--an example for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Owen R; Hamann, Mark; Smith, Walter; Taylor, Heidi

    2014-02-15

    Efforts to curb pollution in the marine environment are covered by national and international legislation, yet weather balloons are released into the environment with no salvage agenda. Here, we assess impacts associated with weather balloons in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). We use modeling to assess the probability of ocean endpoints for released weather balloons and predict pathways post-release. In addition, we use 21 months of data from beach cleanup events to validate our results and assess the abundance and frequency of weather balloon fragments in the GBRWHA. We found between 65% and 70% of balloons land in the ocean and ocean currents largely determine final endpoints. Beach cleanup data revealed 2460 weather balloon fragments were recovered from 24 sites within the GBRWHA. This is the first attempt to quantify this problem and these data will add support to a much-needed mitigation strategy for weather balloon waste. PMID:24434000

  5. Prediction of landslide activation at locations in Beskidy Mountains using standard and real-time monitoring methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The paper presents landslide monitoring methods used for prediction of landslide activity at locations in the Carpathian Mountains (SE Poland). Different types of monitoring methods included standard and real-time early warning measurement with use of hourly data transfer to the Internet were used. Project financed from the EU funds was carried out for the purpose of public road reconstruction. Landslides with low displacement rates (varying from few mm to over 5cm/year) had size of 0.4-2.2mln m3. Flysch layers involved in mass movements represented mixture of clayey soils and sandstones of high moisture content and plasticity. Core sampling and GPR scanning were used for recognition of landslide size and depths. Laboratory research included index, IL oedometer, triaxial and direct shear laboratory tests. GPS-RTK mapping was employed for actualization of landslide morphology. Instrumentation consisted of standard inclinometers, piezometers and pore pressure transducers. Measurements were carried 2006-2011, every month. In May 2010 the first in Poland real-time monitoring system was installed at landslide complex over the Szymark-Bystra public road. It included in-place uniaxial sensors and 3D continuous inclinometers installed to the depths of 12-16m with tilt sensors every 0.5m. Vibrating wire pore pressure and groundwater level transducers together with automatic meteorological station analyzed groundwater and weather conditions. Obtained monitoring and field investigations data provided parameters for LEM and FEM slope stability analysis. They enabled prediction and control of landslide behaviour before, during and after stabilization or partly stabilization works. In May 2010 after the maximum precipitation (100mm/3hours) the rates of observed displacements accelerated to over 11cm in a few days and damaged few standard inclinometer installations. However permanent control of the road area was possible by continuous inclinometer installations. Comprehensive

  6. Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Correa, John B; Apolzan, John W; Shepard, Desti N; Heil, Daniel P; Rood, Jennifer C; Martin, Corby K

    2016-07-01

    Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland-Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity. PMID:27270210

  7. Analysis of long-term water quality for effective river health monitoring in peri-urban landscapes--a case study of the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system in NSW, Australia.

    PubMed

    Pinto, U; Maheshwari, B L; Ollerton, R L

    2013-06-01

    The Hawkesbury-Nepean River (HNR) system in South-Eastern Australia is the main source of water supply for the Sydney Metropolitan area and is one of the more complex river systems due to the influence of urbanisation and other activities in the peri-urban landscape through which it flows. The long-term monitoring of river water quality is likely to suffer from data gaps due to funding cuts, changes in priority and related reasons. Nevertheless, we need to assess river health based on the available information. In this study, we demonstrated how the Factor Analysis (FA), Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA) and Trend Analysis (TA) can be applied to evaluate long-term historic data sets. Six water quality parameters, viz., temperature, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, oxides of nitrogen, suspended solids and reactive silicates, measured at weekly intervals between 1985 and 2008 at 12 monitoring stations located along the 300 km length of the HNR system were evaluated to understand the human and natural influences on the river system in a peri-urban landscape. The application of FA extracted three latent factors which explained more than 70 % of the total variance of the data and related to the 'bio-geographical', 'natural' and 'nutrient pollutant' dimensions of the HNR system. The bio-geographical and nutrient pollution factors more likely related to the direct influence of changes and activities of peri-urban natures and accounted for approximately 50 % of variability in water quality. The application of HACA indicated two major clusters representing clean and polluted zones of the river. On the spatial scale, one cluster was represented by the upper and lower sections of the river (clean zone) and accounted for approximately 158 km of the river. The other cluster was represented by the middle section (polluted zone) with a length of approximately 98 km. Trend Analysis indicated how the point sources influence river water quality on spatio

  8. Autonomous monitoring of control hardware to predict off-normal conditions using NIF automatic Alignment Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Awwal, A; Wilhelmsen, K; Leach, R; Kamm, V M; Burkhart, S; Lowe-Webb, R; Cohen, S

    2011-07-20

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a high power laser system capable of supporting high-energy-density experimentation as a user facility for the next 30 years. In order to maximize the facility availability, preventive maintenance enhancements are being introduced into the system. An example of such an enhancement is a camera-based health monitoring system, integrated into the automated alignment system, which provides an opportunity to monitor trends in measurements such as average beam intensity, size of the beam, and pixel saturation. The monitoring system will generate alerts based on observed trends in measurements to allow scheduled pro-active maintenance before routine off-normal detection stops system operations requiring unscheduled intervention.

  9. Monitoring

    DOEpatents

    Orr, Christopher Henry; Luff, Craig Janson; Dockray, Thomas; Macarthur, Duncan Whittemore

    2004-11-23

    The invention provides apparatus and methods which facilitate movement of an instrument relative to an item or location being monitored and/or the item or location relative to the instrument, whilst successfully excluding extraneous ions from the detection location. Thus, ions generated by emissions from the item or location can successfully be monitored during movement. The technique employs sealing to exclude such ions, for instance, through an electro-field which attracts and discharges the ions prior to their entering the detecting location and/or using a magnetic field configured to repel the ions away from the detecting location.

  10. Decision analyses for optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

    2011-12-01

    Model-based decision making related to environmental management problems is a challenging problem. There has been substantial theoretical research and practical applications related to this problem. However, there are very few cases in which the actual decision analyses have been tested in the field to evaluate their adequacy. Over the last several years, we have performed a series of decision analyses to support optimization of a monitoring network at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) site. The problem deals with contaminant transport in the regional aquifer beneath the LANL site. At three separate stages, the existing monitoring network was augmented based on analyses of the existing uncertainties; in total, five new monitoring wells were proposed. At each stage, the data collected at the new monitoring wells demonstrated the adequacy of the prior uncertainty and decision analyses. The decision analyses required a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties, including measurement errors and uncertainties in the conceptualization and model parameters, contributed to the uncertainties in the model predictions. The decision analyses were computationally intensive requiring on the order of one million model simulations; computational efficiency is achieved using (1) high-performance computing (LANL multiprocessor clusters), (2) novel computational techniques for model analysis, and (3) a simple analytical 3D simulator to simulate contaminant transport. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks required optimization of the proposed new monitoring well locations in order to reduce existing model-prediction uncertainties and environmental risk. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of novel techniques for optimization (SQUADS based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods; Vesselinov & Harp, 2011) and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS: Agent

  11. Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity Predict Action Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, A. Eve; Watson, Jason M.; Strayer, David L.

    2012-01-01

    Neuroscience suggests that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is responsible for conflict monitoring and the detection of errors in cognitive tasks, thereby contributing to the implementation of attentional control. Though individual differences in frontally mediated goal maintenance have clearly been shown to influence outward behavior in…

  12. Environmental sampling to predict fecal prevalence of Salmonella in an intensively monitored dairy herd

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Although dairy cattle are known reservoirs for salmonellae, cattle that are shedding this organism are often asymptomatic and difficult to identify. A dairy herd that was experiencing an outbreak of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica Cerro was monitored for two years. Fecal samples from the lacta...

  13. A predictive model for anti-degradation monitoring of the Delaware River mainstem

    EPA Science Inventory

    The non-tidal portion of the Delaware River can be considered to be in minimally disturbed condition, but there is increasing pressure on the watershed. Thus, the primary goal of this research was to develop a monitoring tool that can be used by the Delaware River Basin Commissi...

  14. Monitoring and predicting shrink potential and future processing quality of potato tubers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long-term storage of potato tubers increases risks, which are often attributed to shrink and quality loss. To minimize shrink and ensure high quality tubers, producers must closely monitor the condition of the crop during storage and make necessary adjustments to management plans. Evaluation procedu...

  15. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2010.

    PubMed

    Bareja, Christina; Waring, Justin; Stapledon, Richard

    2014-03-01

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,353 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2010, representing a rate of 6.1 cases per 100,000 population. While rates of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 population for TB have been maintained in Australia, since first achieved in the mid-1980s, there has been a steady increase in incidence over the past decade. The incidence in the Australian-born Indigenous population was 7.5 per 100,000 population, which is 11 times the incidence reported in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population of 0.7 per 100,000 population. Overseas-born people accounted for 90% of all cases notified in 2010 and represented a rate of 24 per 100,000 population. International students have been recognised as an increasingly important group, representing 25% of all overseas-born cases notified in 2010, and are a focus of this report. Household or other close contact with TB or past residence in a high risk country were the most commonly reported risk factors for TB infection. Outcome data for the 2009 TB cohort indicate that treatment success was attained in more than 95% of cases. As Australia continues to contribute to global TB control it is important to maintain good centralised national reporting of TB to identify populations at risk and monitor trends in TB. PMID:25409354

  16. Routine outcome measurement in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Philip; Pirkis, Jane; Coombs, Tim

    2015-08-01

    Australia has been implementing routine outcome measurement in its specialized public sector mental health services for over a decade. It uses a range of clinician-rated and consumer-rated measures that are administered at set times during episodes of inpatient, ambulatory and community residential episodes of care. Routine outcome measurement is now embedded in service delivery, and data are made available in a variety of ways to different audiences. These data are used by policy-makers and planners to inform decisions about system-wide reforms, by service managers to monitor quality and effectiveness, and by clinicians to guide clinical decision-making and to promote dialogue with consumers. Consumers, carers and the general community can use these data to ensure that services are accountable for the care they deliver. This paper describes the status quo in Australia with respect to routine outcome measurement, discusses the factors that led to its successful implementation, and considers the steps that are necessary for its continued development. PMID:25768326

  17. Model-Based Hookload Monitoring and Prediction at Drilling Rigs using Neural Networks and Forward-Selection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaout, A.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.; Esmael, B.; Thonhauser, G.

    2012-04-01

    The use of neural networks and advanced machine learning techniques in the oil & gas industry is a growing trend in the market. Especially in drilling oil & gas wells, prediction and monitoring different drilling parameters is an essential task to prevent serious problems like "Kick", "Lost Circulation" or "Stuck Pipe" among others. The hookload represents the weight load of the drill string at the crane hook. It is one of the most important parameters. During drilling the parameter "Weight on Bit" is controlled by the driller whereby the hookload is the only measure to monitor how much weight on bit is applied to the bit to generate the hole. Any changes in weight on bit will be directly reflected at the hookload. Furthermore any unwanted contact between the drill string and the wellbore - potentially leading to stuck pipe problem - will appear directly in the measurements of the hookload. Therefore comparison of the measured to the predicted hookload will not only give a clear idea on what is happening down-hole, it also enables the prediction of a number of important events that may cause problems in the borehole and yield in some - fortunately rare - cases in catastrophes like blow-outs. Heuristic models using highly sophisticated neural networks were designed for the hookload prediction; the training data sets were prepared in cooperation with drilling experts. Sensor measurements as well as a set of derived feature channels were used as input to the models. The contents of the final data set can be separated into (1) features based on rig operation states, (2) real-time sensors features and (3) features based on physics. A combination of novel neural network architecture - the Completely Connected Perceptron and parallel learning techniques which avoid trapping into local error minima - was used for building the models. In addition automatic network growing algorithms and highly sophisticated stopping criterions offer robust and efficient estimation of the

  18. Individual differences in fifth graders’ reading and language predict their comprehension monitoring development: An eye-movement study

    PubMed Central

    Connor, Carol McDonald; Radach, Ralph; Vorstius, Christian; Day, Stephanie L.; McLean, Leigh; Morrison, Frederick J.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we investigated fifth-graders’ (n=52) fall literacy, academic language, and motivation, and how these skills predicted fall and spring comprehension monitoring on an eye movement task. Comprehension monitoring was defined as the identification and repair of misunderstandings when reading text. In the eye movement task, children read two sentences; the second included either a plausible or implausible word in the context of the first sentence. Stronger readers had shorter reading times overall suggesting faster processing of text. Generally fifth-graders reacted to the implausible word (i.e., longer gaze duration on the implausible v. the plausible word, which reflects lexical access). Students with stronger academic language, compared to those with weaker academic language, generally spent more time re-reading the implausible target compared to the plausible target. This difference increased from fall to spring. Results support the centrality of academic language for meaning integration, setting standards of coherence, and utilizing comprehension repair strategies. PMID:27065721

  19. An Integrated System for Vadose Zone Monitoring, Model Calibration, Performance Assessment, and Prediction (MCAP) in Hanford's T Tank Farm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Z. F.; Keller, J. M.; Myers, D. A.; Sydnor, H. A.

    2006-12-01

    The Hanford Site has 149 underground single-shell tanks that store hazardous radioactive waste. Many of these tanks and their associated infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, diversion boxes) have leaked. Some of the leaked waste is projected to have entered the groundwater. The largest known leak occurred from the T-106 Tank in 1973. Most of the contaminants from that leak still reside within the vadose zone beneath the T Tank Farm. To minimize movement of this residual contaminant plume, an interim infiltration barrier will be constructed on the ground surface. This barrier is expected to prevent infiltrating water from reaching the plume and moving it further towards groundwater. An integrated system will be used for vadose zone moisture monitoring, model calibration, performance assessment, and prediction (MCAP). The system is to be broadly- designed so that the data can be used for multiple purposes. In addition to monitoring soil water movement both under the proposed barrier and adjacent to it, the collected data can also be used to characterize vadose zone hydraulic properties and to calibrate a numerical model. The calibrated model can then be used to assess the performance of the infiltration barrier and to predict water flow and contaminant transport under conditions with and/or without a barrier. A MCAP system is being applied to the Hanford's T Tank Farm. Soil water content is to be monitored using both neutron and capacitance probes; soil water pressure and soil temperature will be monitored with heat dissipation sensors; and water flux will be measured using water fluxmeters. These instruments will be installed in direct push probe holes advanced by a hydraulic hammer unit. Excluding neutron probe measurements, all data collection and data transmittal will be sent to an automated central server. This design allows measurements to be taken continually and reduces the need for personnel to enter the farm thereby increasing worker safety. It is expected that

  20. A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera

    PubMed Central

    JUTLA, ANTARPREET; AKANDA, ALI SHAFQAT; HUQ, ANWAR; FARUQUE, ABU SYED GOLAM; COLWELL, RITA; ISLAM, SHAFIQUL

    2013-01-01

    The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions. PMID:23878762

  1. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Jaby, A.; Lewis, B. J.; Thompson, W. T.; Iglesias, F.; Ip, M.

    2010-04-01

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor.

  2. Epileptic Seizure Detection and Prediction Based on Continuous Cerebral Blood Flow Monitoring--a Review.

    PubMed

    Tewolde, Senay; Oommen, Kalarickal; Lie, Donald Y C; Zhang, Yuanlin; Chyu, Ming-Chien

    2015-01-01

    Epilepsy is the third most common neurological illness, affecting 1% of the world's population. Despite advances in medicine, about 25 to 30% of the patients do not respond to or cannot tolerate the severe side effects of medical treatment, and surgery is not an option for the majority of patients with epilepsy. The objective of this article is to review the current state of research on seizure detection based on cerebral blood flow (CBF) data acquired by thermal diffusion flowmetry (TDF), and CBF-based seizure prediction. A discussion is provided on the applications, advantages, and disadvantages of TDF in detecting and localizing seizure foci, as well as its role in seizure prediction. Also presented are an overview of the present challenges and possible future research directions (along with methodological guidelines) of the CBF-based seizure detection and prediction methods. PMID:26288885

  3. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  4. The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes Predicts Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Maxwell T.; Cho, Sungkun; Heiby, Elaine M.; Lee, Chun-I; Lahtela, Adrienne L.

    2006-01-01

    The Health Behavior Schedule-II for Diabetes (HBS-IID) is a 27-item questionnaire that was evaluated as a predictor of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). The HBS-IID was completed by 96 adults with Type 2 diabetes. Recent glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c and fasting blood glucose results were taken from participants' medical records. Only 31.3%…

  5. The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Eric F.

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

  6. Intensity of Territorial Marking Predicts Wolf Reproduction: Implications for Wolf Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    García, Emilio J.

    2014-01-01

    Background The implementation of intensive and complex approaches to monitor large carnivores is resource demanding, restricted to endangered species, small populations, or small distribution ranges. Wolf monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult, but the management of such contentious species requires regular estimations of abundance to guide decision-makers. The integration of wolf marking behaviour with simple sign counts may offer a cost-effective alternative to monitor the status of wolf populations over large spatial scales. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a multi-sampling approach, based on the collection of visual and scent wolf marks (faeces and ground scratching) and the assessment of wolf reproduction using howling and observation points, to test whether the intensity of marking behaviour around the pup-rearing period (summer-autumn) could reflect wolf reproduction. Between 1994 and 2007 we collected 1,964 wolf marks in a total of 1,877 km surveyed and we searched for the pups' presence (1,497 howling and 307 observations points) in 42 sampling sites with a regular presence of wolves (120 sampling sites/year). The number of wolf marks was ca. 3 times higher in sites with a confirmed presence of pups (20.3 vs. 7.2 marks). We found a significant relationship between the number of wolf marks (mean and maximum relative abundance index) and the probability of wolf reproduction. Conclusions/Significance This research establishes a real-time relationship between the intensity of wolf marking behaviour and wolf reproduction. We suggest a conservative cutting point of 0.60 for the probability of wolf reproduction to monitor wolves on a regional scale combined with the use of the mean relative abundance index of wolf marks in a given area. We show how the integration of wolf behaviour with simple sampling procedures permit rapid, real-time, and cost-effective assessments of the breeding status of wolf packs with substantial implications to monitor

  7. COMPLEMENTARY CO-KRIGING: SPATIAL PREDICTION USING DATA COMBINED FROM, SEVERAL POLLUTION MONITORING NETWORKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We consider the problem of optimal spatial prediction of an environmental variable using data from more than one sampling network. A model incorporating spatial dependence and measurement errors with network-specific biases and variances serves as the basis for the analysis of th...

  8. Healthcare in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    No single issue has dominated health practitioners' ethical debates in 2014 in Australia, but a controversial decision on gene patenting and the media focus on "Dr. Death," euthanasia campaigner Dr. Philip Nitschke, have given new life to these two familiar (and global) debates. Currently a dying with dignity bill, drafted by the Australian Green Party, is under examination. The Senate inquiry into the bill received more than 663 submissions, with 57% opposed and 43% in support of the bill, which has now been referred to a Senate committee. Will this be another of Australia's failed attempts to legalize euthanasia? The trial of Dr. Nitschke begins on November 10, 2014. PMID:27348826

  9. Surgery in Australia.

    PubMed

    Clunie, G J

    1994-01-01

    More than 4000 surgeons in Australia provide services to 17.6 million people living in the world's driest continent, with a land mass comparable to that of the United States. The problem of distance has been overcome in large part for the 17% of the population who live in remote areas by modern communication systems and by the Flying Doctor and Flying Surgeon services. For the remaining population, largely clustered on the fertile eastern seaboard, surgical services rival the best in the world, and surgical training, under the control of The Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, has set an example for which Australia can be justifiably proud. PMID:8279935

  10. Near-infrared diffuse optical monitoring of cerebral blood flow and oxygenation for the prediction of vasovagal syncope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ran; Shang, Yu; Wang, Siqi; Evans, Joyce M.; Rayapati, Abner; Randall, David C.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Significant drops in arterial blood pressure and cerebral hemodynamics have been previously observed during vasovagal syncope (VVS). Continuous and simultaneous monitoring of these physiological variables during VVS is rare, but critical for determining which variable is the most sensitive parameter to predict VVS. The present study used a novel custom-designed diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow-oximeter and a finger plethysmograph to simultaneously monitor relative changes of cerebral blood flow (rCBF), cerebral oxygenation (i.e., oxygenated/deoxygenated/total hemoglobin concentration: r[HbO2]/r[Hb]/rTHC), and mean arterial pressure (rMAP) during 70 deg head-up tilt (HUT) in 14 healthy adults. Six subjects developed presyncope during HUT. Two-stage physiological responses during HUT were observed in the presyncopal group: slow and small changes in measured variables (i.e., Stage I), followed by rapid and dramatic decreases in rMAP, rCBF, r[HbO2], and rTHC (i.e., Stage II). Compared to other physiological variables, rCBF reached its breakpoint between the two stages earliest and had the largest decrease (76±8%) during presyncope. Our results suggest that rCBF has the best sensitivity for the assessment of VVS. Most importantly, a threshold of ˜50% rCBF decline completely separated the subjects from those without presyncope, suggesting its potential for predicting VVS.

  11. Near-infrared diffuse optical monitoring of cerebral blood flow and oxygenation for the prediction of vasovagal syncope

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Ran; Shang, Yu; Wang, Siqi; Evans, Joyce M.; Rayapati, Abner; Randall, David C.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Abstract. Significant drops in arterial blood pressure and cerebral hemodynamics have been previously observed during vasovagal syncope (VVS). Continuous and simultaneous monitoring of these physiological variables during VVS is rare, but critical for determining which variable is the most sensitive parameter to predict VVS. The present study used a novel custom-designed diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow-oximeter and a finger plethysmograph to simultaneously monitor relative changes of cerebral blood flow (rCBF), cerebral oxygenation (i.e., oxygenated/deoxygenated/total hemoglobin concentration: r[HbO2]/r[Hb]/rTHC), and mean arterial pressure (rMAP) during 70 deg head-up tilt (HUT) in 14 healthy adults. Six subjects developed presyncope during HUT. Two-stage physiological responses during HUT were observed in the presyncopal group: slow and small changes in measured variables (i.e., Stage I), followed by rapid and dramatic decreases in rMAP, rCBF, r[HbO2], and rTHC (i.e., Stage II). Compared to other physiological variables, rCBF reached its breakpoint between the two stages earliest and had the largest decrease (76±8%) during presyncope. Our results suggest that rCBF has the best sensitivity for the assessment of VVS. Most importantly, a threshold of ∼50% rCBF decline completely separated the subjects from those without presyncope, suggesting its potential for predicting VVS. PMID:24402372

  12. Monitoring the film coating unit operation and predicting drug dissolution using terahertz pulsed imaging.

    PubMed

    Ho, Louise; Müller, Ronny; Gordon, Keith C; Kleinebudde, Peter; Pepper, Michael; Rades, Thomas; Shen, Yaochun; Taday, Philip F; Zeitler, J Axel

    2009-12-01

    Understanding the coating unit operation is imperative to improve product quality and reduce output risks for coated solid dosage forms. Three batches of sustained-release tablets coated with the same process parameters (pan speed, spray rate, etc.) were subjected to terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI) analysis followed by dissolution testing. Mean dissolution times (MDT) from conventional dissolution testing were correlated with terahertz waveforms, which yielded a multivariate, partial least squares regression (PLS) model with an R(2) of 0.92 for the calibration set and 0.91 for the validation set. This two-component, PLS model was built from batch I that was coated in the same environmental conditions (air temperature, humidity, etc.) to that of batch II but at different environmental conditions from batch III. The MDTs of batch II was predicted in a nondestructive manner with the developed PLS model and the accuracy of the predicted values were subsequently validated with conventional dissolution testing and found to be in good agreement. The terahertz PLS model was also shown to be sensitive to changes in the coating conditions, successfully identifying the larger coating variability in batch III. In this study, we demonstrated that TPI in conjunction with PLS analysis could be employed to assist with film coating process understanding and provide predictions on drug dissolution. PMID:19367620

  13. Using remote sensing and grid-based meteorological datasets for regional soybean crop yield prediction and crop monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mali, Preeti

    Regional crop yield estimations using crop models is a national priority due to its contributions to crop security assessment and food pricing policies. Many of these crop yield assessments are performed using time-consuming, intensive field surveys. This research was initiated to test the applicability of remote sensing and grid-based meteorological model data for providing improved and efficient predictive capabilities for crop bio-productivity. The soybean prediction model (Sinclair model) used in this research, requires daily data inputs to simulate yield which are temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, day length initialization of certain soil moisture parameters for each model run. The traditional meteorological datasets were compared with simulated South American Land Data Assimilation System (SALDAS) meteorological datasets for Sinclair model runs and for initializing soil moisture inputs. Considering the fact that grid-based meteorological data has the resolution of 1/8th of a degree, the estimations demonstrated a reasonable accuracy level and showed promise for increase in efficiency for regional level yield predictions. The research tested daily composited Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor (both AQUA and TERRA platform) and simulated Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor product (a new sensor planned to be launched in the near future) for crop growth and development based on phenological events. The AQUA and TERRA fusion based daily MODIS NDVI was utilized to develop a planting date estimation method. The results have shown that daily MODIS composited NDVI values have the capability for enhanced monitoring of soybean crop growth and development. The method was able to predict planting date within +/-3.4 days. A geoprocessing framework for extracting data from the grid data sources was developed. Overall, this study was able to demonstrate the utility of

  14. Teaching about Australia. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prior, Warren R.

    Many reasons can be offered for teaching about Australia. The field of Australian studies offers many opportunities for U.S. teachers and students to critically analyze aspects of their own culture, for there are many experiences in the history of Australia that parallel the U.S. experience. Australia and the United States have strong ongoing…

  15. Media Matters in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daniels, Kell

    1998-01-01

    Describes how a teacher helped transform a K-12 Christian school near Sydney, Australia, from a book-bound media studies program into a hands-on learning experience for students. Various projects allow students to operate advanced equipment, evaluate their own and their peers' work, present research results to the class, and produce live media…

  16. Agricultural Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, R. N.

    This document is an English-language abstract (approximately 1,500 words) of a comprehensive survey of education and training for agriculture in Australia. The present facilities are described, and then set against estimates of present and future needs. Constructive proposals are made as to how these needs can best be met by agricultural…

  17. Children's Books in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horn, Vida

    This report, given at a special meeting held in Tehran, describes children's literature in Australia, discussing specifically the background of this literature (the country and early children's books); various influences on the literature, such as the Children's Book Council and children's and school libraries; present-day publishing, including…

  18. Australia: a continuing genocide?

    PubMed

    Short, Damien

    2010-01-01

    Debates about genocide in Australia have for the most part focussed on past frontier killings and child removal practices. This article, however, focuses on contemporary culturally destructive policies, and the colonial structures that produce them, through the analytical lens of the concept of genocide. The article begins with a discussion of the meaning of cultural genocide, locating the idea firmly in Lemkin's work before moving on to engage with the debates around Lemkin's distinction between genocide and cultural 'diffusion.' In contrast to those scholars who prefer the word 'ethnocide,' the underlying conceptual contention is that the term 'cultural genocide' simply describes a key method of genocide and should be viewed, without the need for qualification, as genocide. While direct physical killing and genocidal child removal practices may have ceased in Australia, some indigenous activists persuasively contend that genocide is a continuing process in an Australia that has failed to decolonise. Concurring with these views the article argues that the contemporary expression of continuing genocidal relations in Australia can be seen principally, and perversely, in the colonial state's official reconciliation process, native title land rights regime and the recent interventionist 'solutions' to indigenous 'problems' in the Northern Territory. PMID:20941881

  19. Networking in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peake, Dorothy G.

    1976-01-01

    The last few years have seen increasing interest in library networking in Australia from a number of different groups. All the projects have concerned networks of similar libraries and no parallel to U.S.A. developments of networks encompassing a variety of types of libraries has yet appeared. (Author)

  20. Classification in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinlay, John

    Despite some inroads by the Library of Congress Classification and short-lived experimentation with Universal Decimal Classification and Bliss Classification, Dewey Decimal Classification, with its ability in recent editions to be hospitable to local needs, remains the most widely used classification system in Australia. Although supplemented at…

  1. English in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jernudd, Bjorn H.

    This paper provides a review of "English Transported: Essays on Australasian English," edited by W. S. Ramson. The book is a collection of articles on the various types of English spoken mainly in Australia and New Zealand. Articles discuss such varieties as nineteenth and twentieth century Australian English, New Zealand English, Pidgin English…

  2. Evaluation of calving indicators measured by automated monitoring devices to predict the onset of calving in Holstein dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Ouellet, V; Vasseur, E; Heuwieser, W; Burfeind, O; Maldague, X; Charbonneau, É

    2016-02-01

    Dystocias are common in dairy cows and often adversely affect production, reproduction, animal welfare, labor, and economics within the dairy industry. An automated device that accurately predicts the onset of calving could potentially minimize the effect of dystocias by enabling producers to intervene early. Although many well-documented indicators can detect the imminence of calving, research is limited on their effectiveness to predict calving when measured by automated devices. The objective of this experiment was to determine if a decrease in vaginal temperature (VT), rumination (RT), and lying time (LT), or an increase in lying bouts (LB), as measured by 3 automated devices, could accurately predict the onset of calving within 24, 12, and 6 h. The combination of these 4 calving indicators was also evaluated. Forty-two multiparous Holstein cows housed in tie-stalls were fitted with a temperature logger inserted in the vaginal cavity 7±2 d before their expected calving date; VT was recorded at 1-min intervals. An ear-attached sensor recorded rumination time every hour based on ear movement while an accelerometer fitted to the right hind leg recorded cow position at 1-min intervals. On average, VT were 0.3±0.03°C lower, and RT and LT were 41±17 and 52±28 min lower, respectively, on the calving day compared with the previous 4 d. Cows had 2±1 more LB on the calving day. Of the 4 indicators, a decrease in VT≥0.1°C was best able to predict calving within the next 24 h with a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 74%, positive and negative predictive values of 51 and 89%, and area under the curve of 0.80. Combining the indicators enhanced the performance to predict calving within the next 24, 12, and 6 h with best overall results obtained by combining the 3 devices for prediction within the next 24 h (sensitivity: 77%, specificity: 77%, positive and negative predictive values: 56 and 90%, area under the curve: 0.82). These results indicate that a device that

  3. Australia: a full house.

    PubMed

    Short, R

    1994-01-01

    Australia had a population of 17.6 million in 1991. In 1992, Australia's population grew at the rate of 1.06%, 0.8% due to natural increase and 0.26% from immigration. The recent Australian Bureau of Statistics Report estimates that it will grow to 18.9 million by the end of the century and 23.1 million by 2025, assuming fertility remains at current levels and net migration stabilizes at 70,000 per annum from the year 2000. The World Bank estimates that Australia's population will stabilize at 25 million some time in the future. Since Australia's politicians and economists fail to understand that the country already has a large enough population, no national population policy has been declared. The Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs, responsible for all population issues, gives no thought to the long-term environmental consequences of the rapidly growing population and determines the annual migrant intake simply on the basis of the nation's economic needs, demands from new immigrants for admission of their next of kin, and humanitarian considerations with regard to refugees. Population growth in Australia needs to be checked as soon as possible. Reducing the annual migrant intake to below 50,000, Australia could achieve a stable population of approximately 23 million by 2040; the annual intake of 150,000 immigrants will grow the population to 37 million. The total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level since 1976, but the population's skewed age distribution will cause it to continue to grow through natural increase at the current rate of approximately 0.8% per year for some time to come. Improving educational opportunities for women and ensuring that all have ready access to modern contraception could help produce a further decline in TFR. Moreover, education about contraception must be made a part of every school curriculum. Steps taken now may avert any future flood of millions of ecological refugees from Southeast Asia, particularly

  4. Investigation of Bearing Fatigue Damage Life Prediction Using Oil Debris Monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Toms, Allison M.

    2011-01-01

    Research was performed to determine if a diagnostic tool for detecting fatigue damage of helicopter tapered roller bearings can be used to determine remaining useful life (RUL). The taper roller bearings under study were installed on the tail gearbox (TGB) output shaft of UH- 60M helicopters, removed from the helicopters and subsequently installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. The diagnostic tool was developed and evaluated experimentally by collecting oil debris data during spall progression tests on four bearings. During each test, data from an on-line, in-line, inductance type oil debris sensor was monitored and recorded for the occurrence of pitting damage. Results from the four bearings tested indicate that measuring the debris generated when a bearing outer race begins to spall can be used to indicate bearing damage progression and remaining bearing life.

  5. In situ damage monitoring in vibration mechanics: diagnostics and predictive maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basseville, M.; Benveniste, A.; Gach-Devauchelle, B.; Goursat, M.; Bonnecase, D.; Dorey, P.; Prevosto, M.; Olagnon, M.

    1993-09-01

    A system identification approach is presented for damage monitoring in vibration mechanics. Identification, detection, and diagnostics are performed using accelerometer measurements from the system at work so that the excitation is not controlled, usually not observed and may involve turbulent phenomena. Targeted applications include power engineering (rotating machines, core and pipes of nuclear power plants), civil engineering (large buildings subject to hurricanes or earthquakes, bridges, dams, offshore structures), aeronautics (wings and other structures subject to strength), automobile, rail transportation etc. The method is illustrated by a laboratory example, and the results of 3 years industrial usage. This paper is a progress report on a 10 year project involving three people almost permanently. We describe here the whole approach but omit the technical details which are available in previous papers.

  6. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  7. Radon exhalation of hardening concrete: monitoring cement hydration and prediction of radon concentration in construction site.

    PubMed

    Kovler, Konstantin

    2006-01-01

    The unique properties of radon as a noble gas are used for monitoring cement hydration and microstructural transformations in cementitious system. It is found that the radon concentration curve for hydrating cement paste enclosed in the chamber increases from zero (more accurately - background) concentrations, similar to unhydrated cement. However, radon concentrations developed within 3 days in the test chamber containing cement paste were approximately 20 times higher than those of unhydrated cement. This fact proves the importance of microstructural transformations taking place in the process of cement hydration, in comparison with cement grain, which is a time-stable material. It is concluded that monitoring cement hydration by means of radon exhalation method makes it possible to distinguish between three main stages, which are readily seen in the time dependence of radon concentration: stage I (dormant period), stage II (setting and intensive microstructural transformations) and stage III (densification of the structure and drying). The information presented improves our understanding of the main physical mechanisms resulting in the characteristic behavior of radon exhalation in the course of cement hydration. The maximum value of radon exhalation rate observed, when cement sets, can reach 0.6 mBq kg(-1) s(-1) and sometimes exceeds 1.0 mBq kg(-1) s(-1). These values exceed significantly to those known before for cementitious materials. At the same time, the minimum ventilation rate accepted in the design practice (0.5 h(-1)), guarantees that the concentrations in most of the cases will not exceed the action level and that they are not of any radiological concern for construction workers employed in concreting in closed spaces. PMID:16356604

  8. Potential of the Thermal Infrared Wavelength Region to predict semi-arid Soil Surface Properties for Remote Sensing Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisele, Andreas; Chabrillat, Sabine; Lau, Ian; Hecker, Christoph; Hewson, Robert; Carter, Dan; Wheaton, Buddy; Ong, Cindy; Cudahy, Thomas John; Kaufmann, Hermann

    2014-05-01

    Digital soil mapping with the means of passive remote sensing basically relies on the soils' spectral characteristics and an appropriate atmospheric window, where electromagnetic radiation transmits without significant attenuation. Traditionally the atmospheric window in the solar-reflective wavelength region (visible, VIS: 0.4 - 0.7 μm; near infrared, NIR: 0.7 - 1.1 μm; shortwave infrared, SWIR: 1.1 - 2.5 μm) has been used to quantify soil surface properties. However, spectral characteristics of semi-arid soils, typically have a coarse quartz rich texture and iron coatings that can limit the prediction of soil surface properties. In this study we investigated the potential of the atmospheric window in the thermal wavelength region (long wave infrared, LWIR: 8 - 14 μm) to predict soil surface properties such as the grain size distribution (texture) and the organic carbon content (SOC) for coarse-textured soils from the Australian wheat belt region. This region suffers soil loss due to wind erosion processes and large scale monitoring techniques, such as remote sensing, is urgently required to observe the dynamic changes of such soil properties. The coarse textured sandy soils of the investigated area require methods, which can measure the special spectral response of the quartz dominated mineralogy with iron oxide enriched grain coatings. By comparison, the spectroscopy using the solar-reflective region has limitations to discriminate such arid soil mineralogy and associated coatings. Such monitoring is important for observing potential desertification trends associated with coarsening of topsoil texture and reduction in SOC. In this laboratory study we identified the relevant LWIR wavelengths to predict these soil surface properties. The results showed the ability of multivariate analyses methods (PLSR) to predict these soil properties from the soil's spectral signature, where the texture parameters (clay and sand content) could be predicted well in the models

  9. Presepsin is an early monitoring biomarker for predicting clinical outcome in patients with sepsis.

    PubMed

    Ali, Fahmy T; Ali, Mohamed A M; Elnakeeb, Mostafa M; Bendary, Heba N M

    2016-09-01

    Despite their undoubted helpfulness in diagnosing sepsis, increased blood C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels have been described in many noninfectious conditions. Presepsin is a soluble fragment of the cluster of differentiation 14 involved in pathogen recognition by innate immunity. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic and prognostic performance of presepsin in comparison to PCT and CRP in patients presenting with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and suspected sepsis. Seventy-six subjects were enrolled in this study, including 51 patients with SIRS as well as 25 healthy subjects. Plasma presepsin, PCT and CRP levels were serially measured on admission and at days 1, 3, 7 and 15. Presepsin and PCT yielded similar diagnostic accuracy, whereas presepsin performed significantly better than CRP. Presepsin and PCT showed comparable performance for predicting 28-day mortality, and both biomarkers performed significantly better than CRP. In septic patients, presepsin revealed earlier concentration changes over time when compared to PCT and CRP. Presepsin and PCT could differentiate between septic and non-septic patients with comparable accuracy and both biomarkers showed similar performance for predicting 28-day mortality. Early changes in presepsin concentrations might reflect the appropriateness of the therapeutic modality and could be useful for making effective treatment decisions. PMID:27353646

  10. Implantable microelectromechanical sensors for diagnostic monitoring and post-surgical prediction of bone fracture healing.

    PubMed

    McGilvray, Kirk C; Unal, Emre; Troyer, Kevin L; Santoni, Brandon G; Palmer, Ross H; Easley, Jeremiah T; Demir, Hilmi Volkan; Puttlitz, Christian M

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between modern clinical diagnostic data, such as from radiographs or computed tomography, and the temporal biomechanical integrity of bone fracture healing has not been well-established. A diagnostic tool that could quantitatively describe the biomechanical stability of the fracture site in order to predict the course of healing would represent a paradigm shift in the way fracture healing is evaluated. This paper describes the development and evaluation of a wireless, biocompatible, implantable, microelectromechanical system (bioMEMS) sensor, and its implementation in a large animal (ovine) model, that utilized both normal and delayed healing variants. The in vivo data indicated that the bioMEMS sensor was capable of detecting statistically significant differences (p-value <0.04) between the two fracture healing groups as early as 21 days post-fracture. In addition, post-sacrifice micro-computed tomography, and histology data demonstrated that the two model variants represented significantly different fracture healing outcomes, providing explicit supporting evidence that the sensor has the ability to predict differential healing cascades. These data verify that the bioMEMS sensor can be used as a diagnostic tool for detecting the in vivo course of fracture healing in the acute post-treatment period. PMID:26174472

  11. Vegetation monitoring and yield prediction from NOAA-AVHRR GAC data in the Argentinean Pampa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kerdiles, Herve; Magrin, G.; Rebella, Cesar M.; Seguin, B.

    1995-01-01

    Ten years of NOAA GAC data over the Argentinean Pampa were analyzed in relation with climate and crop production. Correlations between crop yield and monthly NDVI (cumulated or not, weighted by the global radiation or not) reached 0.87 for wheat, 0.85 for soybean and 0.83 for corn, despite the classical limitations of AVHRR data (mixed response, atmospheric and directional noise, sensor calibration), the monthly frequency and the size of the test areas (10,000 km2). The quality of these results was partly due to the extensive character of the Pampa's cropping system since the correlation between final yield and NDVI relies on the following two hypothesis: NDVI can predict biomass and biomass is a good indicator of final grain yield. The best correlations were observed with the NDVI sensed at maximum green biomass, hence permitting yield estimations one to two months before harvest. Standard errors of regression were of 0.22, 0.17, and 0.63 t/ha for wheat, soybean, and maize respectively, for a mean yield around 1.7, 2.2, and 3.8 t/ha, respectively. Last, the complement between NDVI data and crop physiologically based models was examined. Despite the data related limitations, the relationship between CERES wheat predicted LAI and NOAA monthly GAC NDVI appeared as promising.

  12. Temporal epilepsy seizures monitoring and prediction using cross-correlation and chaos theory

    PubMed Central

    Ben-Hamida, Naim; Talbi, Larbi; Lakhssassi, Ahmed; Aouini, Sadok

    2014-01-01

    Temporal seizures due to hippocampal origins are very common among epileptic patients. Presented is a novel seizure prediction approach employing correlation and chaos theories. The early identification of seizure signature allows for various preventive measures to be undertaken. Electro-encephalography signals are spectrally broken down into the following sub-bands: delta; theta; alpha; beta; and gamma. The proposed approach consists of observing a high correlation level between any pair of electrodes for the lower frequencies and a decrease in the Lyapunov index (chaos or entropy) for the higher frequencies. Power spectral density and statistical analysis tools were used to determine threshold levels for the lower frequencies. After studying all five sub-bands, the analysis has revealed that the seizure signature can be extracted from the delta band and the high frequencies. High frequencies are defined as both the gamma band and the ripples occurring within the 60–120 Hz sub-band. To validate the proposed approach, six patients from both sexes and various age groups with temporal epilepsies originating from the hippocampal area were studied using the Freiburg database. An average seizure prediction of 30 min, an anticipation accuracy of 72%, and a false-positive rate of 0% were accomplished throughout 200 h of recording time. PMID:26609376

  13. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with М~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with М ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with М=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines

  14. Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millard, J. P.; Jackson, R. D.; Reginato, R. J.; Idso, S. B.; Goettelman, R. C.; Lapado, R. L.

    1977-01-01

    The aim of the program discussed was to develop techniques for remotely measuring crop irrigation needs and predicting crop yields, with emphasis on wheat. Airborne measurements, using an IR line scanner and color IR photography, were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring minimum and maximum (dawn and afternoon) crop temperatures to compute a parameter, termed 'stress degree day' (SDD) - a valuable indicator of crop water needs, which can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. Crop canopy temperature measurements by airborne IR techniques revealed the superiority of thermal IR data over color IR photography. Water stress undetected in the latter technique was clearly detected in thermal imagery. Color IR photography, however, is valuable in discerning vegetation. The pseudo-colored temperature-difference images (and pseudo-colored images, reading directly in daily SDD increments) are shown to be well suited for assessing plant water status and, thus, for determining the irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

  15. Monitoring and Predicting Wildfire Using Fire Indices and CIMP5 Data (Case study: Golestan National Park)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirzadeh, S. J.; Salehnia, N.; Banezhad, B.; Bannayan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Fire occurrence in fields and forest, is quite high in Iran which has intensified recently and it may be due to climate changes. Golestan National Park, is the first national park in Iran which is registered in the list of UNESCO World Heritage as one of the 50 Earth ecological reserves. In 2014, a number of fire occurred in this park. In this study, attempt to monitor Angstrom and Nestrov indexes in order to forecast future fire in the study area. For this purpose, Atmosphere General Circulation model data; Miroc4h, in 0.562*0.562 scale in CIMP5, are used for fire occurred during 4 days in this area. Calculations show that these indicators provide suitable results in fire forecasting, generally. Angstrom index, decreases to 1 or lower almost in 3 fire, in the starting day or one day before; while critical index values is lower than 2. In recent days before first fire, Nestrov index increases above 10000, which is the critical value. It also increases to 25000 during the other fires. Nestrov index increases during the happening of 4 fire without any decrease. The results show that Angstrom index can forecast the day of starting fires better than Nestrov. Conclusively, the results showed that outputs of CIMP5 can be used in forecasting fire, well. It seems that the value index better not to be dependent on daily precipitation but on consecutive and continues precipitations during serial days.

  16. Chemiluminescence as a condition monitoring method for thermal aging and lifetime prediction of an HTPB elastomer.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth Todd; Minier, Leanna M. G.; Celina, Mathias Christopher; Trujillo, Ana B.

    2007-03-01

    Chemiluminescence (CL) has been applied as a condition monitoring technique to assess aging related changes in a hydroxyl-terminated-polybutadiene based polyurethane elastomer. Initial thermal aging of this polymer was conducted between 110 and 50 C. Two CL methods were applied to examine the degradative changes that had occurred in these aged samples: isothermal 'wear-out' experiments under oxygen yielding initial CL intensity and 'wear-out' time data, and temperature ramp experiments under inert conditions as a measure of previously accumulated hydroperoxides or other reactive species. The sensitivities of these CL features to prior aging exposure of the polymer were evaluated on the basis of qualifying this method as a quick screening technique for quantification of degradation levels. Both the techniques yielded data representing the aging trends in this material via correlation with mechanical property changes. Initial CL rates from the isothermal experiments are the most sensitive and suitable approach for documenting material changes during the early part of thermal aging.

  17. Predicting the timing of first generation egg hatch for the pest redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae).

    PubMed

    McDonald, Garrick; Umina, Paul A; Macfadyen, Sarina; Mangano, Peter; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2015-03-01

    Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectrum pesticides. We developed a simple model to predict the median emergence in autumn of pest populations of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, a major field crop and pasture pest in southern Australia. Previous data and observations suggest that rainfall and temperature are critical for post-diapause egg hatch. We evaluated seven models that combined rainfall and temperature thresholds derived using three approaches against previously recorded hatch dates and 2013 field records. The performance of the models varied between Western Australia and south-eastern Australian States. In Western Australia, the key attributes of the best fitting model were more than 5 mm rain followed by mean day temperatures of below 20.5 °C for 10 days. In south-eastern Australia, the most effective model involved a temperature threshold reduced to 16 °C. These regional differences may reflect adaptation of H. destructor in south-eastern Australia to varied and uncertain temperature and rainfall regimes of late summer and autumn, relative to the hot and dry Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia. Field sampling in 2013 revealed a spread of early hatch dates in isolated patches of habitat, ahead of predicted paddock scale hatchings. These regional models should assist in monitoring and subsequent management of H. destructor at the paddock scale. PMID:25528452

  18. Monitoring and predicting eutrophication of Sri Lankan inland waters using ASTER satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahanayaka, D. D. G. L.; Wijeyaratne, M. J. S.; Tonooka, H.; Minato, A.; Ozawa, S.; Perera, B. D. C.

    2014-10-01

    This study focused on determining the past changes and predicting the future trends in eutrophication of the Bolgoda North lake, Sri Lanka using in situ Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data. This Lake is located in a mixed land use area with industries, some agricultural lands, middle income and high income housing, tourist hotels and low income housing. From March to October 2013, water samples from five sampling sites were collected once a month parallel to ASTER overpass and Chl-a, nitrate and phosphate contents of each sample were measured using standard laboratory methods. Cloud-free ASTER scenes over the lake during the 2000-2013 periods were acquired for Chl-a estimation and trend analysis. All ASTER images were atmospherically corrected using FLAASH software and in-situ Chl-a data were regressed with atmospherically corrected three ASTER VNIR band ratios of the same date. The regression equation of the band ratio and Chl-a content with the highest correlation, which was the green/red band ratio was used to develop algorithm for generation of 15-m resolution Chl-a distribution maps. According to the ASTER based Chl-a distribution maps it was evident that eutrophication of this lake has gradually increased from 2008-2011. Results also indicated that there had been significantly high eutrophic conditions throughout the year 2013 in several regions, especially in water stagnant areas and adjacent to freshwater outlets. Field observations showed that this lake is receiving various discharges from factories. Unplanned urbanization and inadequacy of proper facilities in the nearby industries for waste management have resulted in the eutrophication of the water body. If the present trends of waste disposal and unplanned urbanization continue, enormous environmental problems would be resulted in future. Results of the present study showed that information from satellite remote

  19. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  20. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    PubMed

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models. PMID:26895037

  1. An integrated modeling approach for monitoring and predicting common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed South Carolina estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Samuel Peter

    Recently, research efforts have focused on the development and testing of geographic information processing (GIP) techniques to more effectively identify and monitor invasive plant species in coastal ecosystems. While these efforts are progressing, particularly with refinements in hyperspectral image processing, there remains a lack of practical, science-based tools for decision-making with respect to the monitoring and mitigation of invasive plant species. Therefore, a geographic information systems (GIS) model is proposed to quantify the probability of a future exotic plant invasion in a user-defined area of interest. The primary objective of this investigation is to present conceptual and technical descriptions of a proposed modeling approach for prediction of common reed (Phragmites australis) colonization in a managed coastal wetland environment. Successful validation and adoption of the model will promote continued discourse regarding the impact of invasive species in coastal ecosystems, while providing the management community with a valuable decision support tool. Three main chapters comprise this manuscript; Chapter 1 focuses on the evaluation of remote sensing data and techniques for directly identifying Phragmites australis in a coastal ecosystem; Chapter 2 describes proposed, GIS-based models for predicting Phragmites colonization and future growth projections; and Chapter 3 discusses the results of the compiled relative suitability index (RSI) compilation and growth models, and considers the key management implications of the investigation. In the absence of a universal eradication solution for the invasive species Phragmites australis, an integrated management approach that utilizes a suite of dynamic, geo-spatial techniques in concert with more traditional practices is ultimately recommended. Keywords. Invasive species, estuary, NERRS, Phragmites, GIS-based models, remote sensing, coastal resource management, geographic information processing.

  2. Geothermal development in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.L.; Creelman, R.A.; Buckingham, N.W.; Harrington, H.J. |

    1995-03-01

    In Australia, natural hot springs and hot artesian bores have been developed for recreational and therapeutic purposes. A district heating system at Portland, in the Otway Basin of western Victoria, has provided uninterrupted service for 12 Sears without significant problems, is servicing a building area of 18 990 m{sup 2}, and has prospects of expansion to manufacturing uses. A geothermal well has provided hot water for paper manufacture at Traralgon, in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. Power production from hot water aquifers was tested at Mulka in South Australia, and is undergoing a four-year production trial at Birdsville in Queensland. An important Hot Dry Rock resource has been confirmed in the Cooper Basin. It has been proposed to build an HDR experimental facility to test power production from deep conductive resources in the Sydney Basin near Muswellbrook.

  3. Predicted versus monitored performance of energy-efficiency measures in new commercial buildings from energy edge

    SciTech Connect

    Piette, M.A.; Nordman, B.; deBuen, O.; Diamond, R.

    1993-08-01

    Energy Edge is a research-oriented demonstration program involving 28 new commercial buildings in the Pacific Northwest. This paper discusses the energy savings and cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency measures for the first 12 buildings evaluated using simulation models calibrated with measured end-use data. Average energy savings per building from the simulated code baseline building was 19%, less than the 30% target. The most important factor for the lower savings is that many of the installed measures differ from the measures specified in the design predictions. Only one of the first 12 buildings met the project objective of reducing energy use by more than 30% at a cost below the target of 56 mills/kWh (in 1991 dollars). Based on results from the first 12 calibrated simulation models, 29 of the 66 energy-efficiency measures, or 44%, met the levelized cost criterion. Despite the lower energy savings from individual measures, the energy-use intensities of the buildings are lower than other regional comparison data for new buildings. The authors review factors that contribute to the uncertainty regarding measured savings and suggest methods to improve future evaluations.

  4. Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

  5. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  6. Predictive modeling in Clostridium acetobutylicum fermentations employing Raman spectroscopy and multivariate data analysis for real-time culture monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zu, Theresah N. K.; Liu, Sanchao; Germane, Katherine L.; Servinsky, Matthew D.; Gerlach, Elliot S.; Mackie, David M.; Sund, Christian J.

    2016-05-01

    The coupling of optical fibers with Raman instrumentation has proven to be effective for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions and fermentations when combined with multivariate statistical data analysis. Raman spectroscopy is relatively fast, with little interference from the water peak present in fermentation media. Medical research has explored this technique for analysis of mammalian cultures for potential diagnosis of some cancers. Other organisms studied via this route include Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and some Bacillus sp., though very little work has been performed on Clostridium acetobutylicum cultures. C. acetobutylicum is a gram-positive anaerobic bacterium, which is highly sought after due to its ability to use a broad spectrum of substrates and produce useful byproducts through the well-known Acetone-Butanol-Ethanol (ABE) fermentation. In this work, real-time Raman data was acquired from C. acetobutylicum cultures grown on glucose. Samples were collected concurrently for comparative off-line product analysis. Partial-least squares (PLS) models were built both for agitated cultures and for static cultures from both datasets. Media components and metabolites monitored include glucose, butyric acid, acetic acid, and butanol. Models were cross-validated with independent datasets. Experiments with agitation were more favorable for modeling with goodness of fit (QY) values of 0.99 and goodness of prediction (Q2Y) values of 0.98. Static experiments did not model as well as agitated experiments. Raman results showed the static experiments were chaotic, especially during and shortly after manual sampling.

  7. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment. PMID:26874469

  8. Melville Island, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    Melville Island, just off the coast of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia (11.5S, 131.0E) is a sparsely inhabited tropical island with heavy woodland concentrations. The widespread and prominant smoke plumes were most likely set to renew pasture under open canopy woodland. Soil erosion is almost non- existant as can be seen by the clear and clean river flow. The offshore sediments are coastal current borne deposits from King Sound to the west.

  9. Global Monitoring of Tropical Forest Fires Using A New Predictive Modeling Approach for Rare Classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mithal, V.; Nayak, G.; Khandelwal, A.; Kumar, V.; Oza, N.; Nemani, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The traditional classification approaches use labeled training data to select the best classification model from a family of models. Since collecting labeled samples is often tedious and sometimes even infeasible, recent research in machine learning has focused on developing algorithms to train classification models in scarcity of labeled training samples. In contrast, the focus of our research is to address problem settings where acquiring even a small number of expert-annotated labeled samples for supervision is infeasible. I will present RAPT, a new predictive modeling framework for identifying rare classes when there is a complete absence of labeled data. The RAPT framework is designed to use imperfectly annotated training data to learn classification models in the absence of expert-annotated training samples. Our results show that, under some reasonable assumptions, the classifiers trained from imperfectly labeled training data using the RAPT approach have performance comparable to the classification models trained using expert-annotated training data. This capability of learning from imperfect supervision is advantageous in a wide range of applications where the target class of interest is relatively rare and obtaining a precise labeling of even a small number of training samples is infeasible. I will also present the application of the RAPT framework for creating historical maps of forest fires from satellite data for the tropical forests. This new forest fire product identifies approximately 1 million sq. km. of burned areas in the tropical forests in South America and South-east Asia during years 2001-2014, which is more than three times the total burned area reported by the state-of-art NASA products. We show validation of these results using burn-scars visible in satellite images, including high resolution Landsat images, to confirm the veracity of the previously unreported forest fires.

  10. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  11. Co-evolution of Plant Biodiversity and Pedogeochemistry in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bui, E. N.; Gonzalez-Orozco, C.; Miller, J.

    2013-12-01

    With the geostatistical package geoR (Ribeiro and Diggle 2001), we used the National Geochemical Survey of Australia's 1315 reported total elemental concentrations for aluminium (Al), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), phosphorus (P), all in mg kg-1, for the fine earth (<2 mm) fraction as determined by X-ray fluorescence, and pH1:5 (soil:water) and EC1:5 (soil:water) (de Caritat and Cooper 2011) to predict pedogeochemistry at 127,259 sites, representing presence data for 1020 Acacia species across Australia. Species in the genus Acacia are widely distributed across Australia. Here we show that strong associations exist between plant communities, individual species, and pedogeochemistry. Acacia communities in southern Australia are associated with high pH and high electrical conductivity, high total Mg on greenstone-derived soils, and high total Ca and Mg concentrations on calcareous and saline soils. Many species that tolerate extreme pedogeochemical conditions are range restricted. Both Acacia distribution and pedogeochemistry reflect climatic conditions. Species with strong correlation to local edaphic conditions present a higher potential for loss resulting from climate change, due to abiotic constraints. References de Caritat, P. & Cooper, M. (2011). National Geochemical Survey of Australia: The Geochemical Atlas of Australia. Geoscience Australia, Record 2011/20 (2 Volumes), 557 pp. Ribeiro, P.J. & Diggle, P.J. (2001). geoR: A package for geostatistical analysis. R-News Vol 1, No 2. Available at: http://cran.r-project.org/.

  12. Monitoring of fluid-rock interaction in active fault zones: a new method of earthquake prediction/forecasting?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claesson, L.; Skelton, A.; Graham, C.; Dietl, C.; Morth, M.; Torssander, P.

    2003-12-01

    We propose a new method for earthquake forecasting based on the "prediction in hindsight" of a Mw 5.8 earthquake on Iceland, on September 16, 2002. The "prediction in hindsight" is based on geochemical monitoring of geothermal water at site HU-01 located within the Tj”rnes Fracture Zone, northern Iceland, before and after the earthquake. During the 4 weeks before the earthquake exponential (<800%) increases in the concentration of Cu, Zn and Fe in the fluid, was measured, together with a linear increase of Na/Ca and a slight increase of δ 18O. We relate the hydrogeochemical changes before the earthquake to influx of fluid which interacted with the host rock at higher temperatures and suggest that fluid flow was facilitated by stress-induced modification of rock permeability, which enabled more rapid fluid-rock interaction. Stepwise increases (13-35 %) in the concentration of, Ba, Ca, K, Li, Na, Rb, S, Si, Sr, Cl, Br and SO4 and negative shifts in δ 18O and δ D was detected in the fluid immediately after the earthquake, which we relate to seismically-induced source switching and consequent influx of older (or purer) ice age meteoric waters. The newly tapped source reservoir has a chemically and isotopically distinct ice-age meteoric water signature, which is the result of a longer residence in the crust. The immediancy of these changes is consistent with experimentally-derived timescales of fault-sealing in response to coupled deformation and fluid flow, interpreted as source-switching. These precursory changes may be used to "predict" the earthquake up to 2 weeks before it occurs.

  13. Clinical Evaluation of an Automated Artificial Pancreas Using Zone-Model Predictive Control and Health Monitoring System

    PubMed Central

    Harvey, Rebecca A.; Dassau, Eyal; Bevier, Wendy C.; Seborg, Dale E.; Jovanovič, Lois; Doyle, Francis J.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: This study was performed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a fully automated artificial pancreas using zone-model predictive control (zone-MPC) with the health monitoring system (HMS) during unannounced meals and overnight and exercise periods. Subjects and Methods: A fully automated closed-loop artificial pancreas was evaluated in 12 subjects (eight women, four men) with type 1 diabetes (mean±SD age, 49.4±10.4 years; diabetes duration, 32.7±16.0 years; glycosylated hemoglobin, 7.3±1.2%). The zone-MPC controller used an a priori model that was initialized using the subject's total daily insulin. The controller was designed to keep glucose levels between 80 and 140 mg/dL. A hypoglycemia prediction algorithm, a module of the HMS, was used in conjunction with the zone controller to alert the user to consume carbohydrates if the glucose level was predicted to fall below 70 mg/dL in the next 15 min. Results: The average time spent in the 70–180 mg/dL range, measured by the YSI glucose and lactate analyzer (Yellow Springs Instruments, Yellow Springs, OH), was 80% for the entire session, 92% overnight from 12 a.m. to 7 a.m., and 69% and 61% for the 5-h period after dinner and breakfast, respectively. The time spent <60 mg/dL for the entire session by YSI was 0%, with no safety events. The HMS sent appropriate warnings to prevent hypoglycemia via short and multimedia message services, at an average of 3.8 treatments per subject. Conclusions: The combination of the zone-MPC controller and the HMS hypoglycemia prevention algorithm was able to safely regulate glucose in a tight range with no adverse events despite the challenges of unannounced meals and moderate exercise. PMID:24471561

  14. The 2011 marine heat wave in Cockburn Sound, southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, T. H.; Smale, D. A.; Botting, G.

    2012-07-01

    Over 2000 km of Western Australian coastline experienced a significant marine heat wave in February and March 2011. Seawater temperature anomalies of +2-4 °C were recorded at a number of locations, and satellite-derived SSTs (sea surface temperatures) were the highest on record. Here, we present seawater temperatures from southwestern Australia and describe, in detail, the marine climatology of Cockburn Sound, a large, multiple-use coastal embayment. We compared temperature and dissolved oxygen levels in 2011 with data from routine monitoring conducted from 2002-2010. A significant warming event, 2-4 °C in magnitude, persisted for > 8 weeks, and seawater temperatures at 10 to 20 m depth were significantly higher than those recorded in the previous 9 yr. Dissolved oxygen levels were depressed at most monitoring sites, being ~ 2 mg l-1 lower than usual in early March 2011. Ecological responses to short-term extreme events are poorly understood, but evidence from elsewhere along the Western Australian coastline suggests that the heat wave was associated with high rates of coral bleaching; fish, invertebrate and macroalgae mortalities; and algal blooms. However, there is a paucity of historical information on ecologically-sensitive habitats and taxa in Cockburn Sound, so that formal examinations of biological responses to the heat wave were not possible. The 2011 heat wave provided insights into conditions that may become more prevalent in Cockburn Sound, and elsewhere, if the intensity and frequency of short-term extreme events increases as predicted.

  15. The 2011 marine heat wave off southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, T. H.; Smale, D. A.; Botting, G.

    2012-04-01

    Over 2000 km of Western Australian coastline experienced a significant marine heat wave in February and March 2011. Seawater temperature anomalies of +2-4 °C were recorded at a number of locations and satellite-derived SSTs were the highest on record. Here, we present seawater temperatures from southwestern Australia and describe, in detail, the marine climatology of Cockburn Sound; a large, multiple-use coastal embayment. We compared temperature and dissolved oxygen levels in 2011 with data from routine monitoring conducted from 2002-2010. A significant warming event, 2-4 °C in magnitude, persisted for >8 weeks, and seawater temperatures at 10 to 20 m depth were significantly higher than those recorded in the previous 9 yr. Dissolved oxygen levels were depressed at most monitoring sites, being ~2 mg l-1 lower than usual in early March 2011. Ecological responses to short-term extreme events are poorly understood, but evidence from elsewhere along the Western Australian coastline suggests that the heat wave was associated with high rates of coral bleaching, fish, invertebrate and macroalgae mortalities, and algal blooms. However, more ecological information from Cockburn Sound and other multiple-use embayments is urgently needed. The 2011 heat wave provided insights into conditions that may become more prevalent in Cockburn Sound, and elsewhere, if the intensity and frequency of short-term extreme events increases as predicted.

  16. Methods Developed by the Tools for Engine Diagnostics Task to Monitor and Predict Rotor Damage in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baaklini, George Y.; Smith, Kevin; Raulerson, David; Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.; Sawicki, Jerzy T.; Brasche, Lisa

    2003-01-01

    Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.

  17. Fires in Northern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Several fires were detected in Northern Australia by MODIS. The fires show up as red dots, superimposed on a surface reflectance product. The image also shows the Clarence Strait, which separates the mainland from Melville Island to the northwest and the smaller Bathurst Island to its west. The Strait connects the more confined, bowl-shaped Van Diemen Gulf to the Beagle Gulf. To the right of the image at the top is the Gulf of Carpentaria, which appears to be full of phytoplankton, as evidenced by the blue-green swirls in the waters

  18. Australia and Gondwanaland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Teichert, C.

    1959-01-01

    Along the western margin of the Australian continent there exist four major sedimentary basins, filled with predominantly marine rocks from Cambrian to Tertiary in age, and up to 40,000 feet thick. Seaward these basins continue into depressions recognizable in the continental shelf and even the continental slope. Their very presence, the nature of their sediments and the composition and relationships of their fossil faunas indicate the existence of an open ocean to the west of Australia since early Paleozoic time. Composition of the Australian fossil land vertebrate faunas suggests isolation of the Australian continent since at least Permian time. ?? 1959 Ferdinand Enke Verlag Stuttgart.

  19. Earth - India and Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This color image of the Earth was obtained by the Galileo spacecraft on Dec. 11, 1990, when the spacecraft was about 1.5 million miles from the Earth. The color composite used images taken through the red, green and violet filters. India is near the top of the picture, and Australia is to the right of center. The white, sunlit continent of Antarctica is below. Picturesque weather fronts are visible in the South Pacific, lower right. This is a frame of the Galileo Earth spin movie, a 500-frame time-lapse motion picture showing a 25-hour period of Earth's rotation and atmospheric dynamics.

  20. Home hemodialysis in Australia: current perspective.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Peter G; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; McDonald, Stephen P

    2008-07-01

    Home hemodialysis (HD) in Australia represents 11% of the dialysis population. This percentage has declined over the last 20 years but the absolute number of home HD patients has increased since 2001. The major reason for this resurgence has been the institution of nocturnal HD at home. Predominantly, this has been as a strictly alternate day exercise, although 5-6 times per week dialysis is also practised. Short-daily HD is uncommon in Australia. Nocturnal HD now comprises 30% or more of all home HD. Most home HD in Australia is practiced without remote monitoring, using simple machines with separate reverse osmosis units. Patients tend to self-needle and not all have a "partner." The enthusiasm for nocturnal HD in particular has been fuelled by ANZDATA Registry data demonstrating a survival advantage for patients dialyzing alternate days compared with 3 times per week; and for patients dialyzing for >18 hours per week compared with 12 or 15 hours per week. PMID:18638244

  1. Development of a decision support system for crop disease monitoring, surveillance and prediction in Bomet county, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otieno, O. M.

    2015-12-01

    The study proposes to use Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques to spatially model Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) disease in maize growing areas in Kenya. Results from this work will be used for prediction, monitoring and to guide intervention on MLN. This will minimize maize yield losses resulting from MLN infestation and thus safeguard the livelihoods of maize farmers in Kenya. MLN was first reported in Kenya in September 2011 in Bomet county. It then subsequently spread to other parts in Kenya. Maize crops are susceptible to MLN at all growth stages. Once infected the only option left for the farmers is to burn their maize plantations. Infection rate and damage is very high affecting yields and sometimes causing complete loss of maize yield.The modelling exercise will cover the period prior to and after the incidence of MLN. Specifically, the analysis will integrate spatio-temporal information on maize phenology and field surveys with the intention of delineating the extent of MLN infestation and the degree of damage as a result of MLN. Additionally, the task will identify potential predisposing factors leading to MLN resurgence and spread and to predict potential areas where MLN is likely to spread and to estimate the potential impact of MLN on the farm holders. The area of study for this task will be Bomet County. Historical and current environmental and spatial indicators including temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation health and crop cover will be fed into a model in order to determine the main factors that aide the occurrence and the spread of MLN. Multi-spectral image processing will be used to produce indices to study maize crop health whilst image classification techniques will be used to identify crop cover clusters by differentiating the variations in spectral signatures in the area of study and hence distinguish infected, unaffected maize crops and other crop cover classes. Variables from these indicators will then be

  2. Lithium-ion battery state of health monitoring and remaining useful life prediction based on support vector regression-particle filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Hancheng; Jin, Xiaoning; Lou, Yangbing; Wang, Changhong

    2014-12-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are used as the main power source in many electronic and electrical devices. In particular, with the growth in battery-powered electric vehicle development, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle systems. In order to provide timely maintenance and replacement of battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable and accurate battery health diagnostic that takes a prognostic approach. Therefore, this paper focuses on two main methods to determine a battery's health: (1) Battery State-of-Health (SOH) monitoring and (2) Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Both of these are calculated by using a filter algorithm known as the Support Vector Regression-Particle Filter (SVR-PF). Models for battery SOH monitoring based on SVR-PF are developed with novel capacity degradation parameters introduced to determine battery health in real time. Moreover, the RUL prediction model is proposed, which is able to provide the RUL value and update the RUL probability distribution to the End-of-Life cycle. Results for both methods are presented, showing that the proposed SOH monitoring and RUL prediction methods have good performance and that the SVR-PF has better monitoring and prediction capability than the standard particle filter (PF).

  3. AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO ADDRESSING NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS: THE INTEGRATION OF GIS, URBAN MORPHOLOGY, PREDICTIVE METEOROLOGY, AND AIR QUALITY MONITORING TOOLS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a project that combines the capabilities of urban geography, raster-based GIS, predictive meteorological and air pollutant diffusion modeling, to support a neighborhood-scale air quality monitoring pilot study under the U.S. EPA EMPACT Program. The study ha...

  4. Australia's marine virtual laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proctor, Roger; Gillibrand, Philip; Oke, Peter; Rosebrock, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In all modelling studies of realistic scenarios, a researcher has to go through a number of steps to set up a model in order to produce a model simulation of value. The steps are generally the same, independent of the modelling system chosen. These steps include determining the time and space scales and processes of the required simulation; obtaining data for the initial set up and for input during the simulation time; obtaining observation data for validation or data assimilation; implementing scripts to run the simulation(s); and running utilities or custom-built software to extract results. These steps are time consuming and resource hungry, and have to be done every time irrespective of the simulation - the more complex the processes, the more effort is required to set up the simulation. The Australian Marine Virtual Laboratory (MARVL) is a new development in modelling frameworks for researchers in Australia. MARVL uses the TRIKE framework, a java-based control system developed by CSIRO that allows a non-specialist user configure and run a model, to automate many of the modelling preparation steps needed to bring the researcher faster to the stage of simulation and analysis. The tool is seen as enhancing the efficiency of researchers and marine managers, and is being considered as an educational aid in teaching. In MARVL we are developing a web-based open source application which provides a number of model choices and provides search and recovery of relevant observations, allowing researchers to: a) efficiently configure a range of different community ocean and wave models for any region, for any historical time period, with model specifications of their choice, through a user-friendly web application, b) access data sets to force a model and nest a model into, c) discover and assemble ocean observations from the Australian Ocean Data Network (AODN, http://portal.aodn.org.au/webportal/) in a format that is suitable for model evaluation or data assimilation, and

  5. Tele-dermatology in Australia.

    PubMed

    Muir, Jim; Lucas, Lex

    2008-01-01

    Australia is a large country with a small and scattered population. Specialist dermatology services are concentrated in the capital cities and larger urban centers on the coast. This has meant access to these services for Australians in rural and remote areas has been limited to those able to travel the often long distances to their nearest dermatologist. Due to a considerable shortage of dermatologists, waiting times to see one are more than six months. The challenge was to provide a dermatology service that overcame these twin obstacles of distance and demand. Telecommunication infrastructure in Australia is good and most towns have at least one general practitioner. More than 75% of all general practices are equipped with computers and have broadband internet access.Dermatology is a specialty with few life threatening disorders. However short delays in diagnosis and management of a skin condition rarely have any serious impact on a patient's long-term health. At the same time many skin problems are distressing, and difficult to diagnose and treat. Many skin conditions last for considerable periods of time and patients need ongoing care. Due to the highly visual nature of the specialty, most skin conditions can be diagnosed from an image especially if there is some history available. This often requires a trained specialist. Paradoxically, any needed investigations such as skin biopsy or blood tests can be performed by any qualified doctor. Dermatological treatments can be instituted and monitored by these same practitioners without any specialist training. These factors make tele-medicine an ideal solution to the problems of isolation from and excess demand for specialist dermatological services. In 2004 the Australian College of Rural and Remote Medicine (ACRRM) in a joint initiative with Queensland Divisions of General Practice (QDGP) set up Tele-Derm with funding from the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing under the Medical Specialist Outreach

  6. MISR Views Northern Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    MISR images of tropical northern Australia acquired on June 1, 2000 (Terra orbit 2413) during the long dry season. Left: color composite of vertical (nadir) camera blue, green, and red band data. Right: multi-angle composite of red band data only from the cameras viewing 60 degrees aft, 60 degrees forward, and nadir. Color and contrast have been enhanced to accentuate subtle details. In the left image, color variations indicate how different parts of the scene reflect light differently at blue, green, and red wavelengths; in the right image color variations show how these same scene elements reflect light differently at different angles of view. Water appears in blue shades in the right image, for example, because glitter makes the water look brighter at the aft camera's view angle. The prominent inland water body is Lake Argyle, the largest human-made lake in Australia, which supplies water for the Ord River Irrigation Area and the town of Kununurra (pop. 6500) just to the north. At the top is the southern edge of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf; the major inlet at the left is Cambridge Gulf, the location of the town of Wyndham (pop. 850), the port for this region. This area is sparsely populated, and is known for its remote, spectacular mountains and gorges. Visible along much of the coastline are intertidal mudflats of mangroves and low shrubs; to the south the terrain is covered by open woodland merging into open grassland in the lower half of the pictures.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  7. Australia's Great Barrier Reef

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    The Great Barrier Reef extends for 2,000 kilometers along the northeastern coast of Australia. It is not a single reef, but a vast maze of reefs, passages, and coral cays (islands that are part of the reef). This nadir true-color image was acquired by the MISR instrument on August 26, 2000 (Terra orbit 3679), and shows part of the southern portion of the reef adjacent to the central Queensland coast. The width of the MISR swath is approximately 380 kilometers, with the reef clearly visible up to approximately 200 kilometers from the coast. It may be difficult to see the myriad details in the browse image, but if you retrieve the higher resolution version, a zoomed display reveals the spectacular structure of the many reefs.

    The more northerly coastal area in this image shows the vast extent of sugar cane cultivation, this being the largest sugar producing area in Australia, centered on the city of Mackay. Other industries in the area include coal, cattle, dairying, timber, grain, seafood, and fruit. The large island off the most northerly part of the coast visible in this image is Whitsunday Island, with smaller islands and reefs extending southeast, parallel to the coast. These include some of the better known resort islands such as Hayman, Lindeman, Hamilton, and Brampton Islands.

    Further south, just inland of the small semicircular bay near the right of the image, is Rockhampton, the largest city along the central Queensland coast, and the regional center for much of central Queensland. Rockhampton is just north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Its hinterland is a rich pastoral, agricultural, and mining region.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology.

  8. A feasibility study of a predictive emissions monitoring system applied to taipower's nanpu and hsinta power plants.

    PubMed

    Chien, Tsung-Wen; Hsueh, Hsin-Ta; Chu, Hsin; Hsu, Wei-Chieh; Tu, Yueh-Yuan; Tsai, Hsien-Shiou; Chen, Kuo-Yi

    2010-08-01

    The Hsinta and Nanpu Power Stations are located in southern Taiwan. The Hsinta Power Station consists of five combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), whereas the Nanpu Power Station consists of four. A project was undertaken to develop and deploy a predictive emissions monitoring system (PEMS) on CCGT unit 3 of Hsinta Power Station (HT-3) and CCGT unit 1 of Nanpu Power Station (NP-1) with the long-term goal of developing a universal model for this kind of power plant. After the first-year PEMS project at the Hsinta power plant, one goal of the second-year PEMS project was to set up a second PEMS at the Nanpu power plant and compare the PEM models applied the to two gas-fired combined cycle power generation units. Consequently, the second and third PEMS of Taiwan at CCGT HT-3 and NP-1 were finished. After comparing the differences among HT-1, HT-3, and NP-1 PEMS models, the pattern of model functionality indicated that this model could be applied to the other units of the same type and size. However, the PEMS function constant or parameter coefficients must be modified on a case-by-case basis. With regard to the PEMS model developed for HT-3, the relative accuracy (RA) of the 15-variable model with start-up mode is only 7.43% and met the criteria of draft PS-16. With regard to the PEMS model developed for NP-1, the RA of the 10-variable model with start-up mode was only 7.76% and also met the criteria of draft PS-16. PMID:20842930

  9. Derivation of baseline lung impedance in chronic heart failure patients: use for monitoring pulmonary congestion and predicting admissions for decompensation.

    PubMed

    Shochat, Michael; Shotan, Avraham; Blondheim, David S; Kazatsker, Mark; Dahan, Iris; Asif, Aya; Shochat, Ilia; Frimerman, Aaron; Rozenman, Yoseph; Meisel, Simcha R

    2015-06-01

    The instantaneous lung impedance (ILI) is one of the methods to assess pulmonary congestion or edema (PCE) in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. Due to usually existing PCE in CHF patients when evaluated, baseline lung impedance (BLI) is unknown. Therefore, the relation of ILI to BLI is unknown. Our aim was to evaluate methods to calculate and appraise BLI or its derivative as reflecting the clinical status of CHF patients. ILI and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class were assessed in 222 patients (67 ± 11 years, LVEF <35 %) during 32 months of frequent outpatient clinic visits. ILI, measured in 120 asymptomatic patients at NYHA class I, with no congestion on the chest X-ray and a low-normal 6-min walk, was defined as BLI. Using measured BLI and ILI values in these patients, formulas for BLI calculation were derived based on logistic regression analysis or on the disparity between BLI and ILI values at different NYHA stages. Both models were equally reliable with <3 % difference between measured and calculated BLI (p = NS). ΔLIR = (ILI/BLI - 1) × 100 % reflected the degree of PCE, or deviation from baseline, correlated with NYHA class (r = -0.9, p < 0.001) and could serve for monitoring. Of study patients, 123 were re-hospitalized for PCE during follow up. Their ΔLIR decreased gradually from -21.7 ± 8.2 % 4 weeks pre-admission to -37.8 ± 9.3 % on admission (p < 0.001). Patients improved during hospital stay (NYHA 3.7 ± 0.5 to 2.9 ± 0.8, p < 0.0001) with ΔLIR increasing to -29.1 ± 12.0 % (p < 0.001). ΔLIR based on calculated BLI correlated with the clinical status of CHF patients and allowed the prediction of hospitalizations for PCE. PMID:25193676

  10. Comparative assessment of glucose prediction models for patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus applying sensors for glucose and physical activity monitoring.

    PubMed

    Zarkogianni, K; Mitsis, K; Litsa, E; Arredondo, M-T; Ficο, G; Fioravanti, A; Nikita, K S

    2015-12-01

    The present work presents the comparative assessment of four glucose prediction models for patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) using data from sensors monitoring blood glucose concentration. The four models are based on a feedforward neural network (FNN), a self-organizing map (SOM), a neuro-fuzzy network with wavelets as activation functions (WFNN), and a linear regression model (LRM), respectively. For the development and evaluation of the models, data from 10 patients with T1DM for a 6-day observation period have been used. The models' predictive performance is evaluated considering a 30-, 60- and 120-min prediction horizon, using both mathematical and clinical criteria. Furthermore, the addition of input data from sensors monitoring physical activity is considered and its effect on the models' predictive performance is investigated. The continuous glucose-error grid analysis indicates that the models' predictive performance benefits mainly in the hypoglycemic range when additional information related to physical activity is fed into the models. The obtained results demonstrate the superiority of SOM over FNN, WFNN, and LRM with SOM leading to better predictive performance in terms of both mathematical and clinical evaluation criteria. PMID:26049412

  11. Asian student migration to Australia.

    PubMed

    Shu, J; Hawthorne, L

    1996-01-01

    "This paper presents an overview of Asian student migration to Australia, together with an analysis of political and educational aspects of the overseas student programme. It focuses on some significant consequences of this flow for Australia. The characteristics of key student groups are contrasted to provide some perspective of the diversity of historical and cultural backgrounds, with the source countries of Malaysia, Indonesia and PRC [China] selected as case studies. Since the issue of PRC students in Australia has attracted considerable public attention and policy consideration, particular focus is placed on their experience." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) PMID:12291796

  12. Algae Reefs in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Numerous algae reefs are seen in Shark Bay, Western Australia, Australia (26.0S, 113.5E) especially in the southern portions of the bay. The south end is more saline because tidal flow in and out of the bay is restricted by sediment deposited at the north and central end of the bay opposite the mouth of the Wooramel River. This extremely arid region produces little sediment runoff so that the waters are very clear, saline and rich in algae.

  13. Adolescent suicide in Australia: rates, risk and resilience.

    PubMed

    McNamara, Patricia M

    2013-07-01

    Adolescent suicide rates in Australia have fallen significantly during recent years. The incidence, however, clearly remains a serious concern for young people, parents, professionals and policy makers. Some groups of Australian youth appear to be at heightened risk. Adolescents within the welfare system, indigenous, rural and refugee youth, along with same sex attracted young people often need very careful monitoring and support. Young men continue to take their lives more frequently than young women. Prevention programmes in Australia aim to develop resilience in young people, families and communities that can serve as protection against self harm and suicide. The improvement of mental health literacy, a fostering of adolescent self-efficacy and better access to early intervention strategies are currently privileged in national and state policies related to young people in Australia. More work is needed, however, to achieve a well integrated mental health framework capable of effectively addressing adolescent suicide prevention into the twenty-first century. PMID:23118313

  14. Sustainability: Australia at the crossroads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander

    2015-11-01

    A modelling study argues that comprehensive policy change could limit Australia's environmental pollution while maintaining a materials-intensive path to economic growth. But other paths are worth considering. See Article p.49

  15. Australia's Next Top Fraction Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peter Gould suggests Australia's next top fraction model should be a linear model rather than an area model. He provides a convincing argument and gives examples of ways to introduce a linear model in primary classrooms.

  16. Novel approaches to effects-based monitoring: 21st century tools for bio-effects prediction and surveillance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effects-based monitoring (EBM) has been employed as a complement to chemical monitoring to help address knowledge gaps between chemical occurrence and biological effects. We have piloted several pathway-based approaches to EBM, that utilize modern bioinformatic and high throughpu...

  17. Rethinking "Commercial" Surrogacy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Millbank, Jenni

    2015-09-01

    This article proposes reconsideration of laws prohibiting paid surrogacy in Australia in light of increasing transnational commercial surrogacy. The social science evidence base concerning domestic surrogacy in developed economies demonstrates that payment alone cannot be used to differentiate "good" surrogacy arrangements from "bad" ones. Compensated domestic surrogacy and the introduction of professional intermediaries and mechanisms such as advertising are proposed as a feasible harm-minimisation approach. I contend that Australia can learn from commercial surrogacy practices elsewhere, without replicating them. PMID:25015592

  18. Indigenous actinorhizal plants of Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganguli, Nishath K; Kennedy, Ivan R

    2013-11-01

    Indigenous species of actinorhizal plants of Casuarinaceae, Elaeagnaceae and Rhamnaceae are found in specific regions of Australia. Most of these plants belong to Casuarinaceae, the dominant actinorhizal family in Australia. Many of them have significant environmental and economical value. The other two families with their indigenous actinorhizal plants have only a minor presence in Australia. Most Australian actinorhizal plants have their native range only in Australia, whereas two of these plants are also found indigenously elsewhere. The nitrogen-fixing ability of these plants varies between species. This ability needs to be investigated in some of these plants. Casuarinas form a distinctive but declining part of the Australian landscape. Their potential has rarely been applied in forestry in Australia despite their well-known uses, which are being judiciously exploited elsewhere. To remedy this oversight, a programme has been proposed for increasing and improving casuarinas that would aid in greening more regions of Australia, increasing the soil fertility and the area of wild life habitat (including endangered species). Whether these improved clones would be productive with local strains of Frankia or they need an external inoculum of Frankia should be determined and the influence of mycorrhizal fungi on these clones also should be investigated. PMID:24287655

  19. Neutron scattering in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Knott, R.B.

    1994-12-31

    Neutron scattering techniques have been part of the Australian scientific research community for the past three decades. The High Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR) is a multi-use facility of modest performance that provides the only neutron source in the country suitable for neutron scattering. The limitations of HIFAR have been recognized and recently a Government initiated inquiry sought to evaluate the future needs of a neutron source. In essence, the inquiry suggested that a delay of several years would enable a number of key issues to be resolved, and therefore a more appropriate decision made. In the meantime, use of the present source is being optimized, and where necessary research is being undertaken at major overseas neutron facilities either on a formal or informal basis. Australia has, at present, a formal agreement with the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK) for access to the spallation source ISIS. Various aspects of neutron scattering have been implemented on HIFAR, including investigations of the structure of biological relevant molecules. One aspect of these investigations will be presented. Preliminary results from a study of the interaction of the immunosuppressant drug, cyclosporin-A, with reconstituted membranes suggest that the hydrophobic drug interdigitated with lipid chains.

  20. Chemometrics and in-line near infrared spectroscopic monitoring of a biopharmaceutical Chinese hamster ovary cell culture: prediction of multiple cultivation variables.

    PubMed

    Clavaud, Matthieu; Roggo, Yves; Von Daeniken, Ralph; Liebler, André; Schwabe, Jan-Oliver

    2013-07-15

    In the present study near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used to monitor the cultivation of mammalian Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells producing a monoclonal antibody in a fed-batch cell culture process. A temperature shift was applied during the cultivation. The cells were incubated at 37 °C and 33 °C. The Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) multiplex process analyzer spectroscopy was investigated to monitor cultivation variables of the CHO cell culture from 10 independent batches using two channels of the FT-NIR. The measurements were performed on production scale bioreactors of 12,500 L. The cell cultures were analyzed with the spectrometer coupled to a transflection sterilizable fiber optic probe inserted into the bioreactors. Multivariate data analysis (MVDA) employing unsupervised principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression methods (PLS) were applied. PCA demonstrated that 96% of the observed variability was explained by the process trajectory and the inter-batch variability. PCA was found to be a significant tool in identifying batch homogeneity between lots and in detecting abnormal fermentation runs. Seven different cell culture parameters such as osmolality, glucose concentration, product titer, packed cell volume (PCV), integrated viable packed cell volume (ivPCV), viable cell density (VCD), and integrated viable cell count (iVCC) were monitored inline and predicted by NIR. NIR spectra and reference analytics data were computed using control charts to evaluate the monitoring abilities. Control charts of each media component were under control by NIR spectroscopy. The PLS calibration plots offered accurate predictive capabilities for each media. This paper underlines the capability for inline prediction of multiple cultivation variables during bioprocess monitoring. PMID:23622522

  1. Nighttime assaults: using a national emergency department monitoring system to predict occurrence, target prevention and plan services

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Emergency department (ED) data have the potential to provide critical intelligence on when violence is most likely to occur and the characteristics of those who suffer the greatest health impacts. We use a national experimental ED monitoring system to examine how it could target violence prevention interventions towards at risk communities and optimise acute responses to calendar, holiday and other celebration-related changes in nighttime assaults. Methods A cross-sectional examination of nighttime assault presentations (6.01 pm to 6.00 am; n = 330,172) over a three-year period (31st March 2008 to 30th March 2011) to English EDs analysing changes by weekday, month, holidays, major sporting events, and demographics of those presenting. Results Males are at greater risk of assault presentation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.14, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 3.11-3.16; P < 0.001); with male:female ratios increasing on more violent nights. Risks peak at age 18 years. Deprived individuals have greater risks of presenting across all ages (AOR 3.87, 95% CIs 3.82-3.92; P < 0.001). Proportions of assaults from deprived communities increase midweek. Female presentations in affluent areas peak aged 20 years. By age 13, females from deprived communities exceed this peak. Presentations peak on Friday and Saturday nights and the eves of public holidays; the largest peak is on New Year’s Eve. Assaults increase over summer with a nadir in January. Impacts of annual celebrations without holidays vary. Some (Halloween, Guy Fawkes and St Patrick’s nights) see increased assaults while others (St George’s and Valentine’s Day nights) do not. Home nation World Cup football matches are associated with nearly a three times increase in midweek assault presentation. Other football and rugby events examined show no impact. The 2008 Olympics saw assaults fall. The overall calendar model strongly predicts observed presentations (R2 = 0.918; P < 0

  2. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2016-04-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  3. Implementation of two new resource management information systems in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kessell, Stephen R.; Good, Roger B.; Hopkins, Angas J. M.

    1984-05-01

    This paper describes the development and implementation of PREPLAN, A Pristine Environment Planning Language and Simulator, for two conservation areas in Australia, Kosciusko National Park (New South Wales) and Tutanning Nature Reserve (Western Australia). PREPLAN was derived from the North American gradient modeling systems and the Forest Planning Language and Simulator (FORPLAN), but includes unique characteristics not previously available. PREPLAN includes an integrated resource management data base, modules for predicting site-specific vegetation, fuels, animals, fire behavior, and fire effects, and an English language instruction set. PREPLAN was developed specifically to provide available information and understanding of ecosystems to managers in a readily accessible and usable form, and to provide the motivation to conduct additional required research projects. An evaluation of the system's advantages and limitations is presented, and the way the utilization of such systems is improving natural area decision making throughout Australia is discussed.

  4. Australia Viewed by NIMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    This multispectral map of Australia and surrounding seas was obtained by the Galileo spacecraft's Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer shortly after closest approach on Dec. 8, 1990 from an altitude of about 50,000 miles. The image shows various ocean, land and atmospheric cloud features as they appear in three of the 408 infrared colors or wavelengths sensed by the instrument. The wavelength of 0.873 micron, represented as blue in the photo, shows regions of enhanced liquid water absorption, i.e. the Pacific and Indian oceans. The 0.984- micron band, represented as red, shows areas of enhanced ground reflection as on the Australian continent. This wavelength is also sensitive to the reflectivity of relatively thick clouds. The 0.939- micron wavelength, shown as green, is a strong water-vapor-absorbing band, and is used to accentuate clouds lying above the strongly absorbing lower atmosphere. When mixed with the red indicator of cloud reflection, the green produces a yellowish hue; this indicates thick clouds. The distinctive purplish color off the northeast coast marks the unusually shallow waters of the Great Barrier Reef and the Coral Sea. Here the blue denoting water absorption combines with the red denoting reflection from coral and surface marine organisms to produce this unusual color. The Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) on the Galileo spacecraft is a combined mapping (imaging) and spectral instrument. It can sense 408 contiguous wavelengths from 0.7 micron (deep red) to 5.2 microns, and can construct a map or image by mechanical scanning. It can spectroscopically analyze atmospheres and surfaces and construct thermal and chemical maps.

  5. The statistical evaluation and comparison of ADMS-Urban model for the prediction of nitrogen dioxide with air quality monitoring network.

    PubMed

    Dėdelė, Audrius; Miškinytė, Auksė

    2015-09-01

    In many countries, road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollution associated with adverse effects on human health and environment. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is considered to be a measure of traffic-related air pollution, with concentrations tending to be higher near highways, along busy roads, and in the city centers, and the exceedances are mainly observed at measurement stations located close to traffic. In order to assess the air quality in the city and the air pollution impact on public health, air quality models are used. However, firstly, before the model can be used for these purposes, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of the dispersion modelling as one of the most widely used method. The monitoring and dispersion modelling are two components of air quality monitoring system (AQMS), in which statistical comparison was made in this research. The evaluation of the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System (ADMS-Urban) was made by comparing monthly modelled NO2 concentrations with the data of continuous air quality monitoring stations in Kaunas city. The statistical measures of model performance were calculated for annual and monthly concentrations of NO2 for each monitoring station site. The spatial analysis was made using geographic information systems (GIS). The calculation of statistical parameters indicated a good ADMS-Urban model performance for the prediction of NO2. The results of this study showed that the agreement of modelled values and observations was better for traffic monitoring stations compared to the background and residential stations. PMID:26293894

  6. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  7. First ceratosaurian dinosaur from Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzgerald, Erich M. G.; Carrano, Matthew T.; Holland, Timothy; Wagstaff, Barbara E.; Pickering, David; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia

    2012-05-01

    The basal theropod dinosaur clade Ceratosauria, and its subclade Abelisauroidea, is characteristic of late Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas in western Gondwana (South America, Africa, Madagascar, and India) and Europe. Yet unambiguous records of ceratosaurs have hitherto been absent from Australia, where the theropod assemblage appears to include several typically Laurasian clades. Here, we report the first evidence of ceratosaurs (and potentially abelisauroids) from eastern Gondwana--a diagnostic astragalocalcaneum from the Aptian (121-125 Ma) of Victoria, Australia. Ceratosauria thus occurred in both western and eastern Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous. This fossil adds to the poorly known dinosaur fauna of Australia, a major clade of basal theropods, emphasising that its mid-Cretaceous theropod diversity was surprisingly cosmopolitan despite relative geographic isolation, including clades that have been thought to be typical of both Gondwana and Laurasia--Ceratosauria, Spinosauridae, Carcharodontosauria, Tyrannosauroidea, and Deinonychosauria. Such a contemporaneous association of theropod clades is unknown from other Gondwanan continents and questions the views that the late Mesozoic dinosaur fauna of Australia was dominated by Gondwanan or Laurasian elements, extreme isolation, relictualism, and/or novelty as a `centre of origin'. The cosmopolitan theropod fauna of Australia probably reflects the global distribution of these clades early in their history, prior to significant continental breakup.

  8. Australia`s southeastern Bonaparte basin has plenty of potential

    SciTech Connect

    Miyazaki, S.

    1997-04-21

    Situated in the Timor Sea and Joseph Bonaparte Gulf regions, the Bonaparte basin is one of the Phanerozoic basins of what is now called the North West Shelf of Australia. This basin consists of a number of Paleozoic and Mesozoic synclines and horsts. Drilling success rate for this basin is one of the highest in Australia in the last 5 years. New opportunities are available in the southeastern Bonaparte basin, where seven vacant tracts have just been released for application for exploration permits. The paper discusses the regional geology, previous exploration activities, and potentials of the southern Petrel sub-basin and Darwin shelf.

  9. Broad-spectrum monitoring strategies for predicting occult precipitation contribution to water balance in a coastal watershed in California: Ground-truthing, areal monitoring and isotopic analysis of fog in the San Francisco Bay region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koohafkan, M.; Thompson, S. E.; Leonardson, R.; Dufour, A.

    2013-12-01

    We showcase a fog monitoring study designed to quantitatively estimate the contribution of summer fog events to the water balance of a coastal watershed managed by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Two decades of research now clearly show that fog and occult precipitation can be major contributors to the water balance of watersheds worldwide. Monitoring, understanding and predicting occult precipitation is therefore as hydrologically compelling as forecasting precipitation or evaporation, particularly in the face of climate variability. We combine ground-based monitoring and collection strategies with remote sensing technologies, time-lapse imagery, and isotope analysis to trace the ';signature' of fog in physical and ecological processes. Spatial coverage and duration of fog events in the watershed is monitored using time-lapse cameras and leaf wetness sensors strategically positioned to provide estimates of the fog bank extent and cloud base elevation, and this fine-scale data is used to estimate transpiration suppression by fog and is examined in the context of regional climate through the use of satellite imagery. Soil moisture sensors, throughfall collectors and advective fog collectors deployed throughout the watershed provide quantitative estimates of fog drip contribution to soil moisture and plants. Fog incidence records and streamflow monitoring provide daily estimates of fog contribution to streamflow. Isotope analysis of soil water, fog drip, stream water and vegetation samples are used to probe for evidence of direct root and leaf uptake of fog drip by plants. Using this diversity of fog monitoring methods, we develop an empirical framework for the inclusion of fog processes in water balance models.

  10. POPs monitoring in Australia and New Zealand using plastic resin pellets, and International Pellet Watch as a tool for education and raising public awareness on plastic debris and POPs.

    PubMed

    Yeo, Bee Geok; Takada, Hideshige; Taylor, Heidi; Ito, Maki; Hosoda, Junki; Allinson, Mayumi; Connell, Sharnie; Greaves, Laura; McGrath, John

    2015-12-15

    Persistent organic pollutants (i.e. PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs) were analyzed along Australia and New Zealand North Island coastlines. PCB concentrations were high in urban areas (107-294 ng/g-pellet), with Sydney Harbour the most polluted. Hepta-chlorinated PCB was abundant, with ~30% in urban areas suggesting legacy pollution. DDT concentrations showed similar pattern except in rural agricultural sites, Taupo Bay and Ahipara, New Zealand (23 and 47 ng/g-pellet). p,p'-DDE predominance at these 2 sites suggested historical input; they also had high HCH concentrations (17 and 29 ng/g-pellet). The role of International Pellet Watch (IPW) in science communication was studied through feedbacks from IPW volunteers, case studies and examples. IPW data were categorized into understandable terms and tailored reports based on volunteers' backgrounds complemented with pollution maps. The effectiveness of IPW science communication has led to its use in awareness and education activities focusing on both POPs and plastic debris issues. PMID:26586511

  11. Energy expenditure prediction via a footwear-based physical activity monitor: Accuracy and comparison to other devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dannecker, Kathryn

    2011-12-01

    Accurately estimating free-living energy expenditure (EE) is important for monitoring or altering energy balance and quantifying levels of physical activity. The use of accelerometers to monitor physical activity and estimate physical activity EE is common in both research and consumer settings. Recent advances in physical activity monitors include the ability to identify specific activities (e.g. stand vs. walk) which has resulted in improved EE estimation accuracy. Recently, a multi-sensor footwear-based physical activity monitor that is capable of achieving 98% activity identification accuracy has been developed. However, no study has compared the EE estimation accuracy for this monitor and compared this accuracy to other similar devices. Purpose . To determine the accuracy of physical activity EE estimation of a footwear-based physical activity monitor that uses an embedded accelerometer and insole pressure sensors and to compare this accuracy against a variety of research and consumer physical activity monitors. Methods. Nineteen adults (10 male, 9 female), mass: 75.14 (17.1) kg, BMI: 25.07(4.6) kg/m2 (mean (SD)), completed a four hour stay in a room calorimeter. Participants wore a footwear-based physical activity monitor, as well as three physical activity monitoring devices used in research: hip-mounted Actical and Actigraph accelerometers and a multi-accelerometer IDEEA device with sensors secured to the limb and chest. In addition, participants wore two consumer devices: Philips DirectLife and Fitbit. Each individual performed a series of randomly assigned and ordered postures/activities including lying, sitting (quietly and using a computer), standing, walking, stepping, cycling, sweeping, as well as a period of self-selected activities. We developed branched (i.e. activity specific) linear regression models to estimate EE from the footwear-based device, and we used the manufacturer's software to estimate EE for all other devices. Results. The shoe

  12. Clavadoce (Annelida: Phyllodocidae) from Australia.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Robin S; Greaves, Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    The first records of the phyllodocid genus Clavadoce are provided from Australia, where the fifth species in the genus is now known: Clavadoce dorsolobata (Hartmann-Schröder, 1987) comb. nov. which is widely distributed in intertidal habitats in southeastern Australia. Clavadoce dorsolobata was described as Eumida (Sige) dorsolobata Hartmann-Schröder, 1987 and herein transferred to Clavadoce. Five species of Clavadoce are now known world wide, four of which are from different regions on the Pacific Ocean margin, while Clavadoce cristata is from the North Atlantic. The Australian species is the first record of Clavadoce for the southern hemisphere. PMID:27395480

  13. Nursing around the world: Australia.

    PubMed

    Stein-Parbury, J

    2000-01-01

    Early nursing in Australia was influenced strongly by the British nursing tradition, characterized by an apprenticeship style of nurse education. However, this influence has been replaced by the transfer of all registered nursing education into the higher education sector. This article will discuss the development of the discipline of nursing in Australia as well as the Australian health care system and nursing work force. Nursing educational programs, registration, organizations, and research will be will be described. Finally current issues in Australian nursing and health care will be presented. PMID:11453843

  14. Predicting Risk-Taking With and Without Substance Use: The Effects of Parental Monitoring, School Bonding, and Sports Participation

    PubMed Central

    Dever, Bridget V.; Schulenberg, John E.; Dworkin, Jodi B.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Kloska, Deborah D.; Bachman, Jerald G.

    2013-01-01

    Risk-taking is statistically normative during adolescence, yet is associated with adverse outcomes including substance use. The present study draws the distinction between protective factors (effective for those identified as high risk takers) and promotive factors (effective for all) against substance use, focusing on parental monitoring, school bonding, and sports participation. A total of 36,514 8th and 10th grade participants in the national Monitoring the Future study were included. Although parental monitoring was associated with lower alcohol and marijuana use among all adolescents (i.e., promotive effect), these effects were strongest among the highest risk takers (i.e., protective effect) and females. School bonding was associated with lower levels of both alcohol and marijuana use among all groups of adolescents, but these promotive effects were weak. Sports participation was associated with higher levels of alcohol use among all males and among 8th grade females who did not identify as high risk takers. Despite being a risk factor for alcohol use, sports participation did demonstrate a promotive effect against marijuana use among 10th grade females only, and especially so for high risk-taking females (i.e., protective effect). Overall, these findings suggest that of the three mechanisms studied, parental monitoring emerged as the most promising entry point for substance use prevention and intervention across groups, particularly for females and high risk-taking adolescents. PMID:22960940

  15. Prediction of antiarthritic drug efficacies by monitoring active matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) levels in collagen-induced arthritic mice using the MMP-3 probe.

    PubMed

    Lee, Aeju; Park, Kyeongsoon; Choi, Sung-Jae; Seo, Dong-Hyun; Kim, Kwangmeyung; Kim, Han Sung; Choi, Kuiwon; Kwon, Ick Chan; Yoon, Soo-Young; Youn, Inchan

    2014-05-01

    Active matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) is a prognostic marker of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We recently developed an MMP-3 probe that can specifically detect the active form of MMP-3. The aim of this study was to investigate whether detection and monitoring of active MMP-3 could be useful to predict therapeutic drug responses in a collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) model. During the period of treatment with drugs such as methotrexate (MTX) or infliximab (IFX), MMP-3 mRNA and protein levels were correlated with fluorescence signals in arthritic joint tissues and in the serum of CIA mice. Also, bone volume density and erosion in the knee joints and the paws of CIA mice were measured with microcomputed tomography (micro-CT), X-ray, and histology to confirm drug responses. In joint tissues and serum of CIA mice, strong fluorescence signals induced by the action of active MMP-3 were significantly decreased when drugs were applied. The decrease in RA scores in drug-treated CIA mice led to fluorescence reductions, mainly as a result of down-regulation of MMP-3 mRNA or protein. The micro-CT, X-ray, and histology results clearly showed marked decreases in bone and cartilage destruction, which were consistent with the reduction of fluorescence by down-regulation of active MMP-3 in drug-treated CIA mice. We suggest that the MMP-3 diagnostic kit could be used to detect and monitor the active form of MMP-3 in CIA mice serum during a treatment course and thereby used to predict the drug response or resistance to RA therapies at an earlier stage. We hope that monitoring of active MMP-3 levels in arthritis patients using the MMP-3 diagnostic kit will be a promising tool for drug discovery, drug development, and monitoring of drug responses in RA therapy. PMID:24673659

  16. High Technology in Australia: Rhetoric or Reality?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sekhon, J. G.; Shannon, A. G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper outlines the imbalance in Australia's intellectual and high technology trade, and argues that if Australia is to move beyond being a high technology colony, a new attitude toward research and development needs to be engendered, particularly in the private sector of industry. It is noted that Australia supplies a small number of the…

  17. Contextualising Multilingualism in Australia Today

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper will begin by looking at globalisation, education and transnationalism in the context of Australia's post-war immigration history leading to a brief examination of the international literature surrounding second and third generation immigration. A brief review of international educational trends in English language teaching in recent…

  18. Hepatitis E Infections, Victoria, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Adamopoulos, Jim; Carter, Karen; Kelly, Heath

    2005-01-01

    In the first half of 2004, acute hepatitis E virus infections diagnosed in Victoria, Australia, increased 7-fold. Of the interviewed patients with highly reactive serologic results, 90% reported recent clinically compatible illness and overseas travel. The increase is compared with a background of exposure in countries in which hepatitis E is endemic. PMID:15757573

  19. Afrikaans Language Maintenance in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatoss, Aniko; Starks, Donna; van Rensburg, Henriette Janse

    2011-01-01

    Changes in the political climate in the home country have resulted in the emigration of South Africans to English speaking countries such as Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Despite the scale of movement of the South African population, language maintenance in these diasporic contexts has received little consideration. This paper…

  20. Rural Adult Education in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Hew

    Adult education in rural areas in Australia provides a contrast both in its general mood and intentions and in its organization with that in the United States. Particularly in rural areas, there seems to be less of the compulsion to organize groups (there are usually no school boards, no chambers of commerce, no women's clubs, no youth centers)…

  1. Early College Entrance in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jung, Jae Yup; Young, Marie; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2015-01-01

    Early college entry is an educational intervention that is being increasingly used in Australia. Following a review of the current Australian literature on early college entry, an overview is provided of the characteristics of, and the procedures associated with, one formal Australian early college entry program (the Early Admission for…

  2. Fleximode: Within Western Australia TAFE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toussaint, Dorothy

    After fleximode was introduced into the Western Australian TAFE system, its cost and effectiveness compared with traditional delivery systems were evaluated. Fleximode, as practiced in Australia, was adapted from a mode of study pioneered in England. It offered students the independence of off-campus study in combination with access to college…

  3. Serious Incident Management in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Ike; Thorley-Smith, Sara

    2007-01-01

    As part of its efforts to ensure school safety, the government of New South Wales, Australia, has developed simulation exercises to better prepare principals to manage serious incidents, in collaboration with police. This article describes two initiatives implemented across NSW. The exercises provide principals in both secondary and primary…

  4. Improving Reading in Australia's Outback

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharratt, Lyn; Hayes, Peter; Coutts, James

    2015-01-01

    Ten years ago, six teachers established a program of literacy intervention and professional learning in remote northwestern Australia based on the Reading Recovery principles. This group of teachers was determined to learn what had to happen in order for them to make a difference with students and then to make it happen. Their work led to getting…

  5. Women and Literacy in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Macrae, Helen; Agostinelli, Jacinta

    The experiences, attitudes, and needs of three literacy learners and one paid literacy teacher in Melbourne, Australia, were examined. The analysis was framed by the following principles: (1) literacy is a feminist issue; (2) adult literacy education is best defined as broad, general education that is grounded in language and fosters depth and…

  6. Terminology Planning in Aboriginal Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Troy, Jakelin; Walsh, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Australia, as far as Aboriginal languages are concerned, is not yet engaged in systematic language planning exercises. This is in contrast to other parts of the world where language planning is institutionalised and enforced. In this paper we chronicle some of the language planning exercises we have observed, been involved in, or have studied of…

  7. Monitoring the Dusty S-cluster object (DSO/G2) near the Galactic center black hole: model predictions for Br-gamma energy shift during the passage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karas, V.; Zajacek, M.; Kunneriath, D.; Valencia-S., M.; Eckart, A.

    2015-07-01

    Dusty S-cluster Object (DSO/G2) has approached the supermassive black hole at the center of the Galaxy and its passage through the peribothron was monitored by the ESO VLT/SINFONI observations taken in the near-infrared K-band. The profile and the energy shift of Br-gamma spectral line can be employed to further constrain the nature of this event. We update and discuss the model predictions for different scenarios: a core-less cloud versus an enshrouded star with a partially disintegrating envelope, potentially forming a bow shock due to stellar outflow. A comparison of observations with model predictions shows that the DSO is a star rather than a core-less cloud.

  8. “Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part I, Monitoring Results

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of model-predicted “transference ratios” is currently under consideration by the US EPA in the formulation of a Secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standard for oxidized nitrogen and oxidized sulfur. This term is an empirical parameter defined for oxidized sulfur (TS)as th...

  9. Petroleum system of the Gippsland Basin, Australia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bishop, Michele G.

    2000-01-01

    The Gippsland Basin Province 3930, located on the southeastern coast of Australia, is formed from two successive failed rifts that developed into a passive margin during the Cretaceous. Formation of this basin is related to the break up of Gondwana, which resulted in the separation of Antarctica from Australia, and the separation of the New Zealand and Lord Howe Rise continental crust from Australia. Coals and coaly shales of Late Cretaceous through Eocene age are the source rocks for oil and gas that accumulated predominantly in anticlinal traps. The basin was Australia?s major producing basin until 1996 when daily oil/condensate production from the North West Shelf surpassed it.

  10. Land use change detection with LANDSAT-2 data for monitoring and predicting regional water quality degradation. [Arkansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, H.; Steele, K. (Principal Investigator); Waite, W.; Rice, R.; Shinn, M.; Dillard, T.; Petersen, C.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Comparison between LANDSAT 1 and 2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing LANDSAT change detection analyses.

  11. Integrating the probability integral method for subsidence prediction and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry for monitoring mining subsidence in Fengfeng, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diao, Xinpeng; Wu, Kan; Zhou, Dawei; Li, Liang

    2016-01-01

    Differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (D-InSAR) is characterized mainly by high spatial resolution and high accuracy over a wide coverage range. Because of its unique advantages, the technology is widely used for monitoring ground surface deformations. However, in coal mining areas, the ground surface can suffer large-scale collapses in short periods of time, leading to inaccuracies in D-InSAR results and limiting its use for monitoring mining subsidence. We propose a data-processing method that overcomes these disadvantages by combining D-InSAR with the probability integral method used for predicting mining subsidence. Five RadarSat-2 images over Fengfeng coal mine, China, were used to demonstrate the proposed method and assess its effectiveness. Using this method, surface deformation could be monitored over an area of thousands of square kilometers, and more than 50 regions affected by subsidence were identified. For Jiulong mine, nonlinear subsidence cumulative results were obtained for a time period from January 2011 to April 2011, and the maximum subsidence value reached up to 299 mm. Finally, the efficiency and applicability of the proposed method were verified by comparing with data from leveling surveying.

  12. Hydrologic monitoring in 1-km2 headwater catchments in Sierra Nevada forests for predictive modeling of hydrologic response to forest treatments across 140-km2 firesheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saksa, P. C.; Bales, R. C.; Conklin, M. H.; Martin, S. E.; Rice, R.

    2010-12-01

    As part of the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, an eight-year study designed to measure the impacts of forest treatments (thinning, mastication, controlled burns) on multiple forest attributes, four headwater catchments were established to provide data on hydrologic response to treatments. These 1-km2 study catchments are each sited within 40-100 km2 firesheds, which in this case largely follow watershed boundaries, and which are the larger study areas for informing adaptive management of approximately 3,000 km2 of mixed-conifer forest in California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada. The aim of the hydrologic design was to put in place a ground-based monitoring network that would measure hydrologic attributes at representative locations, and when combined with remotely sensed data, provide a basis for predictive modeling of the larger study area. The selected locations employ instrument clusters, or groupings of instruments in a compact arrangement, to maximize the number of measurements possible and accessibility to the monitoring sites. The two study firesheds , located in the Tahoe and Sierra National Forests, cover a total of about 140-km2. Within each fireshed, two meteorological stations were placed near 1650-m and 2150-m, spanning the precipitation gradient from lower-elevation rain-dominated to higher-elevation snow-dominated systems. Two headwater streams draining approximately 1-km2 are monitored for stage, discharge, electrical conductivity, and sediment movement. Additionally, instrument nodes to monitor temperature, snow depth and soil moisture are installed within 0.5-1 km of the outlet and meterological stations. These nodes were placed to monitor end members of aspect, slope, elevation and canopy cover, which set the boundaries for the model outputs. High-resolution LiDAR provides the topographic and distributed vegetation characteristics, which are combined with field surveys and standard soils information to define the modeling

  13. Monitoring the source monitoring.

    PubMed

    Luna, Karlos; Martín-Luengo, Beatriz

    2013-11-01

    The hypothesis that the retrieval of correct source memory cues, those leading to a correct source attribution, increases confidence, whereas the retrieval of incorrect source memory cues, those leading to a source misattribution, decreases confidence was tested. Four predictions were derived from this hypothesis: (1) confidence should be higher for correct than incorrect source attribution except; (2) when no source cues are retrieved; (3) only the source misattributions inferred from the retrieval of incorrect source cues will be rated with low confidence; and (4) the number of source cues retrieved, either correct or incorrect, will affect the confidence in the source attributions. To test these predictions, participants read two narratives from two witnesses to a bank robbery, a customer and a teller. Then, participants completed a source monitoring test with four alternatives, customer, teller, both, or neither, and rated their confidence in their source attribution. Results supported the first three predictions, but they also suggested that the number of correct source monitoring cues retrieved did not play a role in the monitoring of the accuracy of the source attributions. Attributions made from the recovery of incorrect source cues could be tagged as dubious or uncertain, thus leading to lowered confidence irrespective of the number of incorrect source cues or whether another correct source cue was also recovered. This research has potential applications for eyewitness memory because it shows that confidence can be an indicator of the accuracy of a source attribution. PMID:23553316

  14. Temporal overlap of humans and giant lizards (Varanidae; Squamata) in Pleistocene Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Gilbert J.; Louys, Julien; Cramb, Jonathan; Feng, Yue-xing; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hocknull, Scott A.; Webb, Gregory E.; Nguyen, Ai Duc; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud

    2015-10-01

    An obvious but key prerequisite to testing hypotheses concerning the role of humans in the extinction of late Quaternary 'megafauna' is demonstrating that humans and the extinct taxa overlapped, both temporally and spatially. In many regions, a paucity of reliably dated fossil occurrences of megafauna makes it challenging, if not impossible, to test many of the leading extinction hypotheses. The giant monitor lizards of Australia are a case in point. Despite commonly being argued to have suffered extinction at the hands of the first human colonisers (who arrived by 50 ka), it has never been reliably demonstrated that giant monitors and humans temporally overlapped in Australia. Here we present the results of an integrated U-Th and 14C dating study of a late Pleistocene fossil deposit that has yielded the youngest dated remains of giant monitor lizards in Australia. The site, Colosseum Chamber, is a cave deposit in the Mt Etna region, central eastern Australia. Sixteen new dates were generated and demonstrate that the bulk of the material in the deposit accumulated since ca. 50 ka. The new monitor fossil is, minimally, 30 ky younger than the previous youngest reliably dated record for giant lizards in Australia and for the first time, demonstrates that on a continental scale, humans and giant lizards overlapped in time. The new record brings the existing geochronological dataset for Australian giant monitor lizards to seven dated occurrences. With such sparse data, we are hesitant to argue that our new date represents the time of their extinction from the continent. Rather, we suspect that future fossil collecting will yield new samples both older and younger than 50 ka. Nevertheless, we unequivocally demonstrate that humans and giant monitor lizards overlapped temporally in Australia, and thus, humans can only now be considered potential drivers for their extinction.

  15. Evaluation of the utility of water quality based indicators of estuarine lagoon condition in NSW, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanes, Peter; Coade, Geoff; Doherty, Maria; Hill, Ross

    2007-08-01

    Environmental indicators must have a predictable relationship with stressors to be of value in ecological assessments. We evaluated the information provided by commonly implemented monitoring indicators as a means of assessing of the level of ecological impact experienced by coastal lagoons in New South Wales, Australia. Existing data for environmental variables in coastal lagoons were correlated with independent estimates of catchment disturbance. There were few relationships between the monitoring variables (particularly water chemistry) and nutrient loads and catchment land use. Data from NSW catchments and lagoons were compared to analogous data from published northern hemisphere studies and it was clear that stressor variables were up to one to two orders of magnitude smaller in NSW, potentially explaining the lack of relationships with recognised indicators. Our study has highlighted the importance of using a range of indicators to assess trends in ecological condition of an estuarine ecosystem, particularly where stressor levels are not great. Using water quality as the sole means of determining lagoon condition was simply inadequate in NSW lagoons. We recommended that ecological outcome indicators such as algal abundance (macro and micro) and turbidity were most likely to show interpretable patterns at low to moderate nitrogen loadings (<40 kg Ha -1 yr -1) and that these should form the basis of estuarine trend monitoring in NSW lagoons. The demonstrated value of seagrass and macroalgal monitoring in estuaries with moderate to high nutrient loadings suggests that these indicators should not be overlooked when planning monitoring programs, recognising, however, they will not have strong discrimination at lower catchment loadings.

  16. Adaptive management of pest resistance by Helicoverpa species (Noctuidae) in Australia to the Cry2Ab Bt toxin in Bollgard II® cotton

    PubMed Central

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rodney J; Rossiter, Louise; Kauter, Greg; Leven, Tracey; Fitt, Gary; Baker, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    In Australia, monitoring Helicoverpa species for resistance to the Cry2Ab toxin in second generation Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton has precisely fulfilled its intended function: to warn of increases in resistance frequencies that may lead to field failures of the technology. Prior to the widespread adoption of two-gene Bt cotton, the frequency of Cry2Ab resistance alleles was at least 0.001 in H. armigera and H. punctigera. In the 5 years hence, there has been a significant and apparently exponential increase in the frequency of alleles conferring Cry2Ab resistance in field populations of H. punctigera. Herein we review the history of deploying and managing resistance to Bt cotton in Australia, outline the characteristics of the isolated resistance that likely impact on resistance evolution, and use a simple model to predict likely imminent resistance frequencies. We then discuss potential strategies to mitigate further increases in resistance frequencies, until the release of a third generation product. These include mandating larger structured refuges, applying insecticide to crops late in the season, and restricting the area of Bollgard II® cotton. The area planted to Bt-crops is anticipated to continue to rise worldwide; therefore the strategies being considered in Australia are likely to relate to other situations. PMID:25567948

  17. Adaptive management of pest resistance by Helicoverpa species (Noctuidae) in Australia to the Cry2Ab Bt toxin in Bollgard II® cotton.

    PubMed

    Downes, Sharon; Mahon, Rodney J; Rossiter, Louise; Kauter, Greg; Leven, Tracey; Fitt, Gary; Baker, Geoff

    2010-09-01

    In Australia, monitoring Helicoverpa species for resistance to the Cry2Ab toxin in second generation Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton has precisely fulfilled its intended function: to warn of increases in resistance frequencies that may lead to field failures of the technology. Prior to the widespread adoption of two-gene Bt cotton, the frequency of Cry2Ab resistance alleles was at least 0.001 in H. armigera and H. punctigera. In the 5 years hence, there has been a significant and apparently exponential increase in the frequency of alleles conferring Cry2Ab resistance in field populations of H. punctigera. Herein we review the history of deploying and managing resistance to Bt cotton in Australia, outline the characteristics of the isolated resistance that likely impact on resistance evolution, and use a simple model to predict likely imminent resistance frequencies. We then discuss potential strategies to mitigate further increases in resistance frequencies, until the release of a third generation product. These include mandating larger structured refuges, applying insecticide to crops late in the season, and restricting the area of Bollgard II® cotton. The area planted to Bt-crops is anticipated to continue to rise worldwide; therefore the strategies being considered in Australia are likely to relate to other situations. PMID:25567948

  18. The rise of new psychoactive substance use in Australia.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lucy; Roxburgh, Amanda; Matthews, Allison; Bruno, Raimondo; Lenton, Simon; Van Buskirk, Joe

    2014-01-01

    New Psychoactive Substances are now a feature of Australia's recreational drug market. Little is known, however, about the prevalence of use, the characteristics of people who use them and the relationship between the NPS and ecstasy markets. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of NPS use amongst a group of regular ecstasy users in Australia. Participants were recruited if they had used ecstasy at least six times in the previous six months, lived in a capital city and were over 16 years of age. Purposive sampling was used, recruiting through universities and colleges, word of mouth and street press. 654 participants were recruited in 2013. Respondents who had used an NPS in the past six months were compared to those who had not. NPS were used by 44% of the total sample. In 2013 2C-I (14%) and 2C-B (8%) were the most prevalent NPS. Respondents in the NPS group were younger and reported more frequent use of more types of drugs. They were also more likely to rate the purity of ecstasy as low relative to those in the no NPS group. NPS are now an established part of Australia's recreational drug scene and NPS with hallucinogenic effects are now used most commonly. Monitoring systems need to develop capacity to monitor this highly dynamic market. PMID:24599890

  19. The impact of invasive cane toads on native wildlife in southern Australia.

    PubMed

    Jolly, Christopher J; Shine, Richard; Greenlees, Matthew J

    2015-09-01

    Commonly, invaders have different impacts in different places. The spread of cane toads (Rhinella marina: Bufonidae) has been devastating for native fauna in tropical Australia, but the toads' impact remains unstudied in temperate-zone Australia. We surveyed habitat characteristics and fauna in campgrounds along the central eastern coast of Australia, in eight sites that have been colonized by cane toads and another eight that have not. The presence of cane toads was associated with lower faunal abundance and species richness, and a difference in species composition. Populations of three species of large lizards (land mullets Bellatorias major, eastern water dragons Intellagama lesueurii, and lace monitors Varanus varius) and a snake (red-bellied blacksnake Pseudechis porphyriacus) were lower (by 84 to 100%) in areas with toads. The scarcity of scavenging lace monitors in toad-invaded areas translated into a 52% decrease in rates of carrion removal (based on camera traps at bait stations) and an increase (by 61%) in numbers of brush turkeys (Alectura lathami). The invasion of cane toads through temperate-zone Australia appears to have reduced populations of at least four anurophagous predators, facilitated other taxa, and decreased rates of scavenging. Our data identify a paradox: The impacts of cane toads are at least as devastating in southern Australia as in the tropics, yet we know far more about toad invasion in the sparsely populated wilderness areas of tropical Australia than in the densely populated southeastern seaboard. PMID:26445649

  20. A Label-free Selected Reaction Monitoring Workflow Identifies a Subset of Pregnancy Specific Glycoproteins as Potential Predictive Markers of Early-onset Pre-eclampsia*

    PubMed Central

    Blankley, Richard T.; Fisher, Christal; Westwood, Melissa; North, Robyn; Baker, Philip N.; Walker, Michael J.; Williamson, Andrew; Whetton, Anthony D.; Lin, Wanchang; McCowan, Lesley; Roberts, Claire T.; Cooper, Garth J. S.; Unwin, Richard D.; Myers, Jenny E.

    2013-01-01

    Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious complication of pregnancy with potentially life threatening consequences for both mother and baby. Presently there is no test with the required performance to predict which healthy first-time mothers will go on to develop PE. The high specificity, sensitivity, and multiplexed nature of selected reaction monitoring holds great potential as a tool for the verification and validation of putative candidate biomarkersfor disease states. Realization of this potential involves establishing a high throughput, cost effective, reproducible sample preparation workflow. We have developed a semi-automated HPLC-based sample preparation workflow before a label-free selected reaction monitoring approach. This workflow has been applied to the search for novel predictive biomarkers for PE. To discover novel candidate biomarkers for PE, we used isobaric tagging to identify several potential biomarker proteins in plasma obtained at 15 weeks gestation from nulliparous women who later developed PE compared with pregnant women who remained healthy. Such a study generates a number of “candidate” biomarkers that require further testing in larger patient cohorts. As proof-of-principle, two of these proteins were taken forward for verification in a 100 women (58 PE, 42 controls) using label-free SRM. We obtained reproducible protein quantitation across the 100 samples and demonstrated significant changes in protein levels, even with as little as 20% change in protein concentration. The SRM data correlated with a commercial ELISA, suggesting that this is a robust workflow suitable for rapid, affordable, label-free verification of which candidate biomarkers should be taken forward for thorough investigation. A subset of pregnancy-specific glycoproteins (PSGs) had value as novel predictive markers for PE. PMID:23897580

  1. Monitoring the spread of myxoma virus in rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus populations on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. III. Release, persistence and rate of spread of an identifiable strain of myxoma virus.

    PubMed

    Merchant, J C; Kerr, P J; Simms, N G; Hood, G M; Pech, R P; Robinson, A J

    2003-02-01

    An identifiable strain of myxoma virus was introduced into four local populations of wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus on the southern tablelands of New South Wales (NSW) and its spread in the presence of other field strains was monitored for 6 months. The main vector in this region was considered to be the European rabbit flea Spilopsyllis cuniculi. Each population of rabbits was of a high density and living in groups of warrens covering areas from 59 to 87 hectares. Rabbits occupying centrally located warrens were inoculated with the virus in late September or early October (spring) and the subsequent appearance of myxomatosis across the sites monitored by trapping, shooting and visual observations. Samples, taken from rabbits with myxomatosis, were examined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) that allowed identification of the introduced strain. On all four sites the introduced virus spread from the inoculated rabbits in the centrally located warrens to rabbits in surrounding warrens. On Sites 1 and 3, this spread continued across the entire site persisting for at least 118 and 174 days respectively. On Sites 2 and 4, the virus was detected for 78 and 62 days respectively and the subsequent inability to detect the introduced virus correlated with the appearance of an unrelated field strain. Using three different methods of calculation, rates of spread ranged from 3.7 to 17.8 m d(-1). PMID:12613755

  2. Monitoring and Predicting the Long Distance Transport of Fusarium graminearum, Causal Agent of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat and Barley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prussin, Aaron Justin, II

    Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Fusarium graminearum , is a serious disease of wheat and barley that has caused several billion dollars in crop losses over the last decade in the United States. Spores of F. graminearum are released from corn and small grain residues left-over from the previous growing season and are transported long distances in the atmosphere before being deposited. Current risk assessment tools consider environmental conditions favorable for disease development, but do not include spore transport. Long distance transport models have been proposed for a number of plant pathogens, but many of these models have not been experimentally validated. In order to predict the atmospheric transport of F. graminearum, the potential source strength ( Qpot) of inoculum must be known. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to estimate Qpot from a field-scale source of inoculum of F. graminearum. Perithecia were generated on artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates. Artificial substrate (carrot agar) produced 15+/-0.4 perithecia cm-2, and natural substrate (corn stalk) produced 44+/-2 perithecia cm-2. Individual perithecia were excised from both substrate types and allowed to release ascospores every 24 hours. Perithecia generated from artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates released a mean of 104+/-5 and 276+/-16 ascospores, respectively. A volumetric spore trap was placed inside a 3,716 m2 clonal source of inoculum in 2011 and 2012. Results indicated that ascospores were released under field conditions predominantly (>90%) during the night (1900 to 0700 hours). Estimates of Qpot for our field-scale sources of inoculum were approximately 4 billion ascospores per 3,716 m 2. Release-recapture studies were conducted from a clonal field-scale source of F. graminearum in 2011 and 2012. Microsatellites were used to identify the released clone of F. graminearum at distances up to 1 km from the source

  3. Frost monitoring and forecasting using MODIS Land Surface Temperature data and a Numerical Weather Prediction model forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, A. S.; Kabuchanga, E. S.; Flores, A.; Mungai, J.; Sakwa, V. N.; Shaka, A.; Malaso, S.; Irwin, D.

    2014-12-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agriculture. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  4. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  5. A Distributed Web-based Solution for Ionospheric Model Real-time Management, Monitoring, and Short-term Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulchitsky, A.; Maurits, S.; Watkins, B.

    2006-12-01

    With the widespread availability of the Internet today, many people can monitor various scientific research activities. It is important to accommodate this interest providing on-line access to dynamic and illustrative Web-resources, which could demonstrate different aspects of ongoing research. It is especially important to explain and these research activities for high school and undergraduate students, thereby providing more information for making decisions concerning their future studies. Such Web resources are also important to clarify scientific research for the general public, in order to achieve better awareness of research progress in various fields. Particularly rewarding is dissemination of information about ongoing projects within Universities and research centers to their local communities. The benefits of this type of scientific outreach are mutual, since development of Web-based automatic systems is prerequisite for many research projects targeting real-time monitoring and/or modeling of natural conditions. Continuous operation of such systems provide ongoing research opportunities for the statistically massive validation of the models, as well. We have developed a Web-based system to run the University of Alaska Fairbanks Polar Ionospheric Model in real-time. This model makes use of networking and computational resources at the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center. This system was designed to be portable among various operating systems and computational resources. Its components can be installed across different computers, separating Web servers and computational engines. The core of the system is a Real-Time Management module (RMM) written Python, which facilitates interactions of remote input data transfers, the ionospheric model runs, MySQL database filling, and PHP scripts for the Web-page preparations. The RMM downloads current geophysical inputs as soon as they become available at different on-line depositories. This information is processed to

  6. Monitoring and Predicting the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Field Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exports Science Definition Team

    2016-04-01

    Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth's carbon cycle and its quantification on global scales remains one of the greatest challenges in global ocean biogeochemistry. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS) science plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean primary production and its implications for the Earth's carbon cycle in present and future climates. NASA's satellite ocean-color data record has revolutionized our understanding of global marine systems. EXPORTS is designed to advance the utility of NASA ocean color assets to predict how changes in ocean primary production will impact the global carbon cycle. EXPORTS will create a predictive understanding of both the export of organic carbon from the euphotic zone and its fate in the underlying "twilight zone" (depths of 500 m or more) where variable fractions of exported organic carbon are respired back to CO2. Ultimately, it is the sequestration of deep organic carbon transport that defines the impact of ocean biota on atmospheric CO2 levels and hence climate. EXPORTS will generate a new, detailed understanding of ocean carbon transport processes and pathways linking upper ocean phytoplankton processes to the export and fate of organic matter in the underlying twilight zone using a combination of field campaigns, remote sensing and numerical modeling. The overarching objective for EXPORTS is to ensure the success of future satellite missions by establishing mechanistic relationships between remotely sensed signals and carbon cycle processes. Through a process-oriented approach, EXPORTS will foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that will maximize its societal relevance and be a key component in the U.S. investment to understand Earth as an integrated system.

  7. Methods and Tools for Monitoring and Prediction of the Large-Scale Environmental Impact of Railway Noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ELBERS, F. B. J.

    2000-03-01

    Due to environmental impact regulations there is a demand for methods and tools to determine noise reception levels near railway lines. Currently, a wide variety of methods and tools is available. Fast computers now enable us to develop powerful tools that combine simplified prediction methods with GIS systems. These new systems allow the study of noise reception levels and environmental impact on a large-scale (complete network, national or international), while more detailed and labour-intensive methods and tools are used when demanded by law. This paper presents a brief overview of the noise prediction methods and tools used in the Netherlands. The focus is on the advantages and restrictions of the different methods. Finally, the paper gives an overview of the actual advantages and restrictions of the recently extended Gerano method Gerano98 (Geographic Railway Noise). Gerano was originally based on the “basic Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. Gerano98 was extended using simplified prediction schemes for the most relevant parts of the “detailed Dutch calculation rules for railway noise”. This most recent calculation method, combined with geographic input features, provides the possibility of determining noise impact and the noise measures to be taken on both the medium and large scale. Examples of the application of the methods and tools to specific (medium- and large-scale) projects are provided. The medium-scale project presents the results of a selection of the prefered line between Amsterdam and Zwolle. The large-scale project (the complete Dutch railway network) shows the results of the comparison of noise measures at source with noise barriers or housing insulation. For both projects the applicability and the usefulness of the methods in these situations is discussed. In conclusion four developments of the Gerano concept are described which have recently been finished or will be so in the near future.

  8. Prediction and Monitoring Systems of Creep-Fracture Behavior of 9Cr-1Mo Steels for Teactor Pressure Vessels

    SciTech Connect

    Potirniche, Gabriel; Barlow, Fred D.; Charit, Indrajit; Rink, Karl

    2013-11-26

    A recent workshop on next-generation nuclear plant (NGNP) topics underscored the need for research studies on the creep fracture behavior of two materials under consideration for reactor pressure vessel (RPV) applications: 9Cr-1Mo and SA-5XX steels. This research project will provide a fundamental understanding of creep fracture behavior of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel welds for through modeling and experimentation and will recommend a design for an RPV structural health monitoring system. Following are the specific objectives of this research project: Characterize metallurgical degradation in welded modified 9Cr-1Mo steel resulting from aging processes and creep service conditions; Perform creep tests and characterize the mechanisms of creep fracture process; Quantify how the microstructure degradation controls the creep strength of welded steel specimens; Perform finite element (FE) simulations using polycrystal plasticity to understand how grain texture affects the creep fracture properties of welds; Develop a microstructure-based creep fracture model to estimate RPVs service life; Manufacture small, prototypic, cylindrical pressure vessels, subject them to degradation by aging, and measure their leak rates; Simulate damage evolution in creep specimens by FE analyses; Develop a model that correlates gas leak rates from welded pressure vessels with the amount of microstructural damage; Perform large-scale FE simulations with a realistic microstructure to evaluate RPV performance at elevated temperatures and creep strength; Develop a fracture model for the structural integrity of RPVs subjected to creep loads; and Develop a plan for a non-destructive structural health monitoring technique and damage detection device for RPVs.

  9. Super learner analysis of electronic adherence data improves viral prediction and may provide strategies for selective HIV RNA monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Petersen, Maya L.; LeDell, Erin; Schwab, Joshua; Sarovar, Varada; Gross, Robert; Reynolds, Nancy; Haberer, Jessica E.; Goggin, Kathy; Golin, Carol; Arnsten, Julia; Rosen, Marc; Remien, Robert; Etoori, David; Wilson, Ira; Simoni, Jane M.; Erlen, Judith A.; van der Laan, Mark J.; Liu, Honghu; Bangsberg, David R

    2015-01-01

    Objective Regular HIV RNA testing for all HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expensive and has low yield since most tests are undetectable. Selective testing of those at higher risk of failure may improve efficiency. We investigated whether a novel analysis of adherence data could correctly classify virological failure and potentially inform a selective testing strategy. Design Multisite prospective cohort consortium. Methods We evaluated longitudinal data on 1478 adult patients treated with ART and monitored using the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS) in 16 United States cohorts contributing to the MACH14 consortium. Since the relationship between adherence and virological failure is complex and heterogeneous, we applied a machine-learning algorithm (Super Learner) to build a model for classifying failure and evaluated its performance using cross-validation. Results Application of the Super Learner algorithm to MEMS data, combined with data on CD4+ T cell counts and ART regimen, significantly improved classification of virological failure over a single MEMS adherence measure. Area under the ROC curve, evaluated on data not used in model fitting, was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.81) for failure defined as single HIV RNA level >1000 copies/ml or >400 copies/ml, respectively. Our results suggest 25–31% of viral load tests could be avoided while maintaining sensitivity for failure detection at or above 95%, for a cost savings of $16–$29 per person-month. Conclusions Our findings provide initial proof-of-concept for the potential use of electronic medication adherence data to reduce costs through behavior-driven HIV RNA testing. PMID:25942462

  10. Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Along the coast of Queensland, Australia (18.0S, 147.5E), timbered foothills of the Great Dividing Range separate the semi-arid interior of Queensland from the farmlands of the coastal plains. Prominent cleared areas in the forest indicate deforestation for farm and pasture lands. Offshore, islands and the Great Barrier Reef display sand banks along the southern sides of the structures indicating a dominant southerly wind and current direction.

  11. Evolving telehealth reimbursement in Australia.

    PubMed

    Bursell, S-E; Zang, S; Keech, A C; Jenkins, A J

    2016-08-01

    Video-based consultation is the only telehealth service reimbursed by the Medicare Benefits Schedule in Australia, but the uptake of telehealth is still low and inconsistent. There is a clear need for the development of appropriate medical evidence to support implementation of telehealth services. With the ubiquitous use of mobile phones, mobile health becomes important in facilitating health services and impacting clinical outcomes anywhere. PMID:27553999

  12. Gosses Bluff impact structure, Australia.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milton, D. J.; Barlow, B. C.; Brown, A. R.; Glikson, A. Y.; Manwaring, E. A.; Moss, F. J.; Sedmik, E. C. E.; Van Son, J.; Brett, R.; Young, G. A.

    1972-01-01

    A comprehensive study has been carried out of the Gosses Bluff structure in Central Australia, which is a typical cryptoexplosion structure. The study included detailed geologic mapping, and seismic reflection and refraction, gravity, aeromagnetic, and ground magnetic surveys. It is concluded that the structure is an eroded crater formed by a single nearly instantaneous shock event, and that the event can be explained only by impact.

  13. A Survey Study of Significent Achievements Accomplished By Snon-mainstreamt Seismologists In ¸ Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Science In China Since 1970

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, I. W.

    -direction abnormality monitoring instrument, and data processing with an effective network of instruments in China, active seismic areas and their main parameters can be intersected and calculated. (5) Impending earthquake prediction using the characteristic dynamic changes of the satellite infrared impending earthquake precursors. (6) Analysis and calculations of the power source of the global crustal movement. The paper summarizes the authorSs findings in these respects most 1 that are still unknown to seismologists in the west. Key Words: earthquake prediction, imminent earthquake prediction, occurrence time, epicenter location, magnitude, pre- cursors, sensors, instrument, astronomy-seismology, planet positions, magnetic storm. 2

  14. Designing Hydroecologic - Geomorphic Monitoring Networks to Capture Heterogeneity and Predict the Influence of Climate Change on Hydrologic, Ecologic and Geomorphic Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tennant, C. J.; Crosby, B. T.

    2010-12-01

    Regional differences in topography and climate in mountainous catchments cause heterogeneity in hydrologic and geomorphic processes and complicate the prediction of climate change impacts on anthropogenic and ecologic systems. To elucidate these complexities and provide measurements that strengthen our predictive power of the influence of climate change on hydrologic, ecologic and geomorphic processes we have designed and implemented a monitoring network that encompasses large elevation, climatic and orographic gradients in the Salmon River basin, central Idaho. Our methodology places strong influence on understanding and characterizing the range and distribution of physical elements across a landscape. Elevation is a characteristic of landscapes that can vary a great deal within a single drainage and exerts strong control on precipitation phase and magnitude, affecting hydroecologic and geomorphic processes. We use hypsometry to characterize elevation distributions and provide a novel method to assess the sensitivity of a landscape to rising snowlines. For example, hypsometry can be used to identify landscape features such as large plateaus or valleys that make up a significant percentage of a watershed’s total land area yet are confined within a small elevation range. These types of landscape elements that are close to freezing line elevations can be thought of as thresholds that will yield non-linear responses to rising snowlines. They will produce disproportionate affects on the percentage of a basin that transitions from snow, to rain domination. In addition, we have used hypsometry to identify sub-basins of the Salmon River that are contained entirely within distinct elevation zones. The low (400 - 1800 m), mid (1000 - 2200 m) and high (2200 - 3200 m) elevation ranges correspond to distinct precipitation regimes (liquid, mixed-phase, and solid phase respectively). From our hydrologic monitoring network we have learned that the frequency, duration and

  15. Monitoring and modeling to predict Escherichia coli at Presque Isle Beach 2, City of Erie, Erie County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2006-01-01

    The Lake Erie shoreline in Pennsylvania spans nearly 40 miles and is a valuable recreational resource for Erie County. Nearly 7 miles of the Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria at permitted Presque Isle beaches occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard, resulting in unsafe swimming conditions and closure of the beaches. E. coli concentrations and other water-quality and environmental data collected at Presque Isle Beach 2 during the 2004 and 2005 recreational seasons were used to develop models using tobit regression analyses to predict E. coli concentrations. All variables statistically related to E. coli concentrations were included in the initial regression analyses, and after several iterations, only those explanatory variables that made the models significantly better at predicting E. coli concentrations were included in the final models. Regression models were developed using data from 2004, 2005, and the combined 2-year dataset. Variables in the 2004 model and the combined 2004-2005 model were log10 turbidity, rain weight, wave height (calculated), and wind direction. Variables in the 2005 model were log10 turbidity and wind direction. Explanatory variables not included in the final models were water temperature, streamflow, wind speed, and current speed; model results indicated these variables did not meet significance criteria at the 95-percent confidence level (probabilities were greater than 0.05). The predicted E. coli concentrations produced by the models were used to develop probabilities that concentrations would exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters. Analysis of the exceedence probabilities helped determine a threshold probability for each model, chosen such that the correct number of exceedences and nonexceedences was maximized and the number of false positives and false negatives was

  16. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagium. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatological characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  17. A remote sensing tool to monitor and predict epidemiologic outbreaks of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrios, M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Amipour, S.; Wambacq, J.; Aerts, J.-M.; Maes, P.; Berckmans, D.; Lagrou, K.; van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.

    2009-04-01

    Lyme disease and Hanta virus infection are the result of the conjunction of several climatic and ecological conditions. Although both affections have different causal agents, they share an important characteristic which is the fact that rodents play an important role in the contagion. One of the most important agents in the dispersion of these diseases is the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareoulus). The bank vole is a common host for both, the Borrelia bacteria which via the ticks (Ixodes ricinus) reaches the human body and causes the Lyme disease, and the Nephropatia epidemica which is caused by Puumala Hantavirus and affects kidneys in humans. The prefered habitat of bank voles is broad-leaf forests with an important presence of beeches (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus sp.) and a relatively dense low vegetation layer. These vegetation systems are common in West-Europe and their dynamics have a great influence in the bank voles population and, therefore, in the spreading of the infections this study is concerned about. The fact that the annual seed production is not stable in time has an important effect in bank voles population and, as it has been described in other studies, in the number of reported cases of Hanta virus infections and Lyme disease. The years in which an abundant production of seeds is observed are referred to as mast years which are believed to obey to cyclic patterns and to certain climatologically characteristics of the preceding years. Statistical analysis have confirmed the correlation in the behaviour of the number of infected cases and the presence of mast years. This project aims at the design of a remote sensing based system (INFOPRESS - INFectious disease Outbreak Prediction REmote Sensing based System) that should enable local and national health care instances to predict and locate the occurrence of infection outbreaks and design policies to counteract undesired effects. The predictive capabilities of the system are based on the

  18. Use of predictive algorithms in-home monitoring of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Morillo, Daniel; Fernandez-Granero, Miguel A; Leon-Jimenez, Antonio

    2016-08-01

    Major reported factors associated with the limited effectiveness of home telemonitoring interventions in chronic respiratory conditions include the lack of useful early predictors, poor patient compliance and the poor performance of conventional algorithms for detecting deteriorations. This article provides a systematic review of existing algorithms and the factors associated with their performance in detecting exacerbations and supporting clinical decisions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. An electronic literature search in Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Cochrane library was conducted to identify relevant articles published between 2005 and July 2015. A total of 20 studies (16 COPD, 4 asthma) that included research about the use of algorithms in telemonitoring interventions in asthma and COPD were selected. Differences on the applied definition of exacerbation, telemonitoring duration, acquired physiological signals and symptoms, type of technology deployed and algorithms used were found. Predictive models with good clinically reliability have yet to be defined, and are an important goal for the future development of telehealth in chronic respiratory conditions. New predictive models incorporating both symptoms and physiological signals are being tested in telemonitoring interventions with positive outcomes. However, the underpinning algorithms behind these models need be validated in larger samples of patients, for longer periods of time and with well-established protocols. In addition, further research is needed to identify novel predictors that enable the early detection of deteriorations, especially in COPD. Only then will telemonitoring achieve the aim of preventing hospital admissions, contributing to the reduction of health resource utilization and improving the quality of life of patients. PMID:27097638

  19. Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs.

    PubMed

    Sparkes, J; Fleming, P J S; Ballard, G; Scott-Orr, H; Durr, S; Ward, M P

    2015-06-01

    Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia. PMID:24934203

  20. Monitoring and Predicting Railway Noise and its Large-Scale Impact on the Environment; a Tool for Policy-Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, G.

    1996-05-01

    The social pressure to decrease noise nuisance caused by rail transport lines is growing rapidly. The solutions realized by the railway companies are often only effective locally and are specified without taking note of future European transport flows. In order to evolve their new policy the Dutch Railway company (NS) is developing a special purpose Geographical Information System. By means of this system it is possible to calculate the acoustic consequences of different future plans on a national or international scale. The input parameters of the system are the number of trains to be expected on the different lines, train speeds, train types, the noise nuisance law concerned, and the amount of sound reduction on specific trains and tracks. The acoustic consequences are quantified either as costs for noise barriers and sound-insulating measures in houses or as the area or number of people living within one specific equal noise level contour. The system gives policy-makers insight into the effects of certain sound reduction measures, of changes in the noise nuisance law and future transport flows. Results of studies show that the system can be a useful aid when making choices between investing in certain acoustic measures to be taken at the source or taking measures along the propagation path. In addition the system is useful as a monitoring system. Thus it is possible to quantify the effects of policy implementation and independent developments.

  1. The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

    PubMed

    Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale. PMID:24988222

  2. Prediction of Meteorological Conditions for the Mars Science Laboratory Rover Curiosity and comparisons with the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pla-García, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot; Martín-Torres, Javier; Elvira-Gómez, Javier; Lepinette, Alain; Kahanpää, Henrik; Rodríguez-Manfredi, Jose; Navarro, Sara; Sebastián, Eduardo

    2013-04-01

    The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is applied to the Gale Crater region, the landing site of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover Curiosity. The landing site within Gale Crater is at one of the lowest elevation locations between the crater rim and the ~4 km high central mound known as Mt. Sharp. As Curiosity heads toward its long term target of Mt. Sharp, the meteorological conditions are expected to change due to the increasing influence of topographically-induced thermal circulations that have been predicted by numerous previous studies [1, 2 ,3, 4]. For the first time ever, these mesoscale model predictions of slope flows can be validated against the meteorological data that is currently being collected by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) [5]. We first provide a comparison of MRAMS predictions (pressure, temperature, winds, and ground temperature) to the REMS data available near the season of landing (~LS 150-200) in order to provide a baseline of model performance, and then we provide predictions of the meteorological conditions as a function of season and expected location of the rover as a function of time. Acknowledgements: JP-G and FJM-T are supported by Economy and Competitivity Ministry (AYA2011-25720). S. R. is supported by the MSL Project at JPL. References: [1] Rafkin, S. C. R., and T. I. Michaels (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12), 8091. [2] Michaels, T. I., and S. C. R. Rafkin (2008), J. Geophys. Res.-Planets, 113. [3] Toigo, A. D., and M. I. Richardson (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12), 8092. [4] Tyler, D., J. R. Barnes, and E. D. Skyllingstad (2008), J. Geophys. Res.-Planets, 113(E8). [5] Gómez-Elvira, J., et al. (2012), Space Science Reviews, 170(1-4), 583-640.

  3. Pilot study on the short-term prediction of symptoms in children with hay fever monitored with e-Health technology.

    PubMed

    Costa, C; Menesatti, P; Brighetti, M A; Travaglini, A; Rimatori, V; Di Rienzo Businco, A; Pelosi, S; Bianchi, A; Matricardi, P M; Tripodi, S

    2014-11-01

    Forecasting symptoms of pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis at the level of individual patients would be useful to improve disease control and plan pharmacological intervention. Information Technology nowadays facilitates a more efficient and easier monitoring of patients with chronic diseases. We aimed this study at testing the efficiency of a model to short-term forecast symptoms of pollen-AR at the "individual" patient level. We analysed the data prospectively acquired from a group of 21 Italian children affected by pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and recorded their symptoms and medication "Average Combined Score" (ACS) on a daily basis during April-June 2010-2011 through an informatics platform (Allergymonitor™). The dataset used for prediction included 15 variables in four categories: (A) date, (B) meteo-climatic, (C) atmospheric concentration of 5 pollen taxa, and (D) intensity of the patient's IgE sensitization. A Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis approach was used in order to predict ACS values above a fixed threshold value (0.5). The best performing predicting model correctly classified 77.8% ± 10.3% and 75.5% ± 13.2% of the recorded days in the model and test years, respectively. In this model, 9/21 patients showed ≥ 80% correct classification of the recorded days in both years. A better performance was associated with a higher degree of patient's atopic sensitization and a time lag > 1. Symptom forecasts of seasonal allergic rhinitis are possible in highly polysensitised patients in areas with complex pollen exposure. However, only predictive models tailored to the individual patient's allergic susceptibility are accurate enough. Multicenter studies in large population samples adopting the same acquisition data system on smart phones are now needed to confirm this encouraging outcome. PMID:25398165

  4. Spatiotemporal fuzzy based climate forecasting for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montazerolghaem, M.; Vervoort, R. W.; Minasny, B.; McBratney, A.

    2012-12-01

    Variation in weather and climate events impacts agriculture production processes, and profits across years. Therefore, seasonal rainfall prediction is an important factor for strategic and tactical decision making in agricultural, land and water resource management. This study aims to apply optimal data-driven techniques for fine resolution climate classification and forecasting over South-eastern Australia. Data were used in this study were included daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data collected over 40 years from 107 weather stations in Southeast Australia acquired from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Fuzzy-k means clustering techniques (FKM) were applied on one year weekly time series. Cluster centroids and memberships of rainfall and temperature weekly time series for one year period provide meaningful and insight into weather variability in time and space over the study. Stations are grouped based on their memberships in rainfall and temperature classes. The result showed that FKM is a useful method for trend analysis and pattern discovery in space and time. Outcomes indicate improvement in the climate classification of the area at the station level. An associate project is gathering higher spatial density on-farm data. This high-resolution climate data collected at the farm scale will be analyzed similarly in the future to improve spatial resolution of our classification. The second stage of this study consists of development of a fine-resolution forecasting model for predicting rainfall. FKM was applied on a metrics which included input and output time series to extract rules and relationships between them. After classification, rules were extracted within each class based on forecasting time, space and extreme climate events followed by effective sea surface temperature anomalies. These rules and a lookup table of input and output centroids were used for rainfall prediction in the form of weekly time series for the next six months. One

  5. Effect-Based Tools for Monitoring and Predicting the Ecotoxicological Effects of Chemicals in the Aquatic Environment

    PubMed Central

    Connon, Richard E.; Geist, Juergen; Werner, Inge

    2012-01-01

    Ecotoxicology faces the challenge of assessing and predicting the effects of an increasing number of chemical stressors on aquatic species and ecosystems. Herein we review currently applied tools in ecological risk assessment, combining information on exposure with expected biological effects or environmental water quality standards; currently applied effect-based tools are presented based on whether exposure occurs in a controlled laboratory environment or in the field. With increasing ecological relevance the reproducibility, specificity and thus suitability for standardisation of methods tends to diminish. We discuss the use of biomarkers in ecotoxicology including ecotoxicogenomics-based endpoints, which are becoming increasingly important for the detection of sublethal effects. Carefully selected sets of biomarkers allow an assessment of exposure to and effects of toxic chemicals, as well as the health status of organisms and, when combined with chemical analysis, identification of toxicant(s). The promising concept of “adverse outcome pathways (AOP)” links mechanistic responses on the cellular level with whole organism, population, community and potentially ecosystem effects and services. For most toxic mechanisms, however, practical application of AOPs will require more information and the identification of key links between responses, as well as key indicators, at different levels of biological organization, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. PMID:23112741

  6. Evaluation of Non-Viral Surrogate Markers as Predictive Indicators for Monitoring Progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection: An Eight-Year Analysis in a Regional Center.

    PubMed

    Rafatpanah, Houshang; Essmailian, Leila; Hedayati-Moghaddam, Mohammad Reza; Vakili, Rosita; Norouzi, Mehdi; Sarvghad, Mohammad Reza; Hosseinpour, Ali Mohammad; Sharebiani, Hiva; Rezaee, S A Rahim

    2016-01-01

    Suitable methods for clinical monitoring of HIV-infected patients are crucial in resource-poor settings. Demographic data, clinical staging, and laboratory findings for 112 asymptomatic subjects positive for HIV were assessed at the first admission and the last visit from 2002 to 2010. Cox regression analysis showed hemoglobin (Hb) (HR = 0.643, P = 0.021) to be a predictive indicator for disease progression, while CD4, CD8, and platelet counts showed low HRs, despite having significant probability values. Hb and total lymphocyte count (TLC) rapidly declined from stage II to III (10.9 and 29.6%, respectively). Reduced CD4 and platelet counts and Hb during stage I were associated with disease progression, and TLC was correlated with CD4 counts at the last follow-up (P < 0.001). However, WHO TLC cutoff of 1,200 cell/mm(3) had 26.1% sensitivity and 98.6% specificity. ROC curve analysis suggested that a TLC cutoff of 1,800 cell/mm(3) was more reliable in this region. Statistical analysis and data mining findings showed that Hb and TLC, and their rapid decline from stage II to III, in addition to reduced platelet count, could be valuable markers for a surrogate algorithm for monitoring of HIV-infected subjects and starting anti-viral therapy in the absence of sophisticated detection assays. PMID:25971319

  7. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for improved regional weather prediction and monitoring of greenhouse gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-12-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on MetOp) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast1. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  8. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  9. Ten years of publicly funded biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, Ashley M; Proudman, Susanna M; Vitry, Agnes I; Sorich, Michael J; Cleland, Leslie G; Wiese, Michael D

    2016-02-01

    Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment were among the first high-cost medicines to be subsidised in Australia. High-cost medicines pose several challenges to the Australian National Medicines Policy, which aims to provide timely access to effective medicines at a cost individuals and the community can afford. Thus, novel restriction criteria were developed to encourage cost-effective use of bDMARDs. Government expenditure on bDMARD subsidies for RA treatment grew to about $383 million in 2014. Evidence that initiation and continuation criteria for bDMARDs meet usually applied cost-benefit criteria is lacking. The combined expenditure on tocilizumab, certolizumab pegol and golimumab (added to the Australian Government's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in 2010) was $93 million in 2014, which is 210% over the initial estimate. Present and future challenges with regard to bDMARDs for RA and other high-cost drugs include improved expenditure predictions, monitoring of cost-effectiveness in relation to actual use and strategic development, regulation and use of biosimilars. Ten years of documentation on clinical and laboratory findings indicating eligibility to initiate and continue on bDMARDs remains un-used. These data represent an untapped opportunity to promote quality of use of bDMARDs and biosimilars and to improve cost predictions for high-cost drugs. PMID:26821102

  10. Analysis of the mixing processes in the subtropical Advancetown Lake, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertone, Edoardo; Stewart, Rodney A.; Zhang, Hong; O'Halloran, Kelvin

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents an extensive investigation of the mixing processes occurring in the subtropical monomictic Advancetown Lake, which is the main water body supplying the Gold Coast City in Australia. Meteorological, chemical and physical data were collected from weather stations, laboratory analysis of grab samples and an in-situ Vertical Profiling System (VPS), for the period 2008-2012. This comprehensive, high frequency dataset was utilised to develop a one-dimensional model of the vertical transport and mixing processes occurring along the water column. Multivariate analysis revealed that air temperature and rain forecasts enabled a reliable prediction of the strength of the lake stratification. Vertical diffusion is the main process driving vertical mixing, particularly during winter circulation. However, a high reservoir volume and warm winters can limit the degree of winter mixing, causing only partial circulation to occur, as was the case in 2013. This research study provides a comprehensive approach for understanding and predicting mixing processes for similar lakes, whenever high-frequency data are available from VPS or other autonomous water monitoring systems.

  11. A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Marlon Moraes; de Angelis, Rafael; Lima, Acacio Souza; Viana de Carvalho, Glauco Dreyer; Ibrahim, Fuad Moraes; Malki, Leonardo Tannus; de Paula Bichuete, Marina; de Paula Martins, Wellington; Rocha, Eduardo Melani

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil. Methods Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008. Results A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p<0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R2 = 0.17,p<0.01). Conclusions Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects. PMID:22457787

  12. Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany. Australia Centre Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, Gerald, Ed.; Reuling, Jochen, Ed.

    This document contains 17 papers on vocational training and lifelong learning in Australia and Germany. The following papers are included: "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia and Germany: Background" (Gerald Burke); "Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Australia: Observations and Conclusions from a German Perspective"…

  13. The MAGSAT project in Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    The first version of the MAGSAT selection and reduction software was completed as well as a major enhancement to support geomagnetic vector data selection and reduction. All MAGSAT data over an area between 90 E and 180 E and between 0 and 50 S were reduced. This area includes the Australasian region and surrounding oceans. Nearly 200 profiles across Australia satisfied the criteria for data. The reduced geomagnetic field inferred to be caused by sources within the lithosphere was interpreted. During reduction, magnetic effects caused by all other causes were eliminated. Some possible correlation with major tectonic structures and known continental scale heat flow anomalies were noted.

  14. [Mental health services in Australia].

    PubMed

    Kisely, Steve; Lesage, Alain

    2014-01-01

    Canada is 1.5 times the size of Australia. Australia's population of 20 million is located principally on the east coast. Like Canada, the Australia has a federal system of Government with 5 States and two territories. Each State and territory has its own legislation on mental health. The federal (Commonwealth) Government is responsible for health care planning. In addition, the federal Government subsidizes an insurance program (Medicare) that covers visits to specialists and family physicians, while provincial governments are involved in the provision of hospital care and community mental health services. The Commonwealth government also subsidises the cost of medication through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. These funds are supplemented by private health insurance. Mental health costs account for 6.5 per cent of all health care costs. Primary care treats the majority of common psychological disorders such as anxiety or depression, while specialist mental health services concentrate on those with severe mental illness. There have been 4 national mental health plans since 1992 with the long term aims of promoting mental health, increasing the quality and responsiveness of services, and creating a consistent approach to mental health service system reform among Australian states and territories. These systematic cycles of planning have first allowed a shift from psychiatric hospitals to community services, from reliance on psychiatric hospitals as pivotal to psychiatric care system. Community care budgets have increased, but overall have decreased with money not following patients; but recent deployment of federally funded through Medicare access to psychotherapy by psychologists for common mental disorders in primary care have increased overall budget. Concerns remain that shift to youth first onset psychosis clinics may come from older long-term psychotic patients, a form of discrimination whilst evidence amount of excess mortality by cardio

  15. Immigration and unemployment in Australia.

    PubMed

    Tsokhas, K

    1994-01-01

    "This article is presented in two parts. The first contains a discussion of Australia's migration programme, its different categories and changes in intakes. It also deals with the contribution made by immigration to the size of the labour force.... The second part deals with the effect of immigration on the unemployment rate and concludes that its effect is negligible or, at best, slightly positive.... Against this background the paper discusses factors contributing to the employment and unemployment experience of migrants, for whom English language proficiency and the possession of recognized skills and qualifications are important in determining employability." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) PMID:12289763

  16. A Survey Study of Significent Achievements Accomplished By Snon-mainstreamt Seismologists In ¸ Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Science In China Since 1970

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, I. W.

    -direction abnormality monitoring instrument, and data processing with an effective network of instruments in China, active seismic areas and their main parameters can be intersected and calculated. (5) Impending earthquake prediction using the characteristic dynamic changes of the satellite infrared impending earthquake precursors. (6) Analysis and calculations of the power source of the global crustal movement. The paper summarizes the authorSs findings in these respects most 1 that are still unknown to seismologists in the west. 2

  17. Prediction of back-scatter radiations to a beam monitor chamber of medical linear accelerators by use of the digitized target-current-pulse analysis method.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Yusuke; Hayashi, Naoki; Kato, Hideki; Fukuma, Hiroshi; Hirose, Yasujiro; Kawano, Makoto; Nishii, Yoshio; Nakamura, Masaru; Mukouyama, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    In small-field irradiation, the back-scattered radiation (BSR) affects the counts measured with a beam monitor chamber (BMC). In general, the effect of the BSR depends on the opened-jaw size. The effect is significantly large in small-field irradiation. Our purpose in this study was to predict the effect of BSR on LINAC output accurately with an improved target-current-pulse (TCP) technique. The pulse signals were measured with a system consisting of a personal computer and a digitizer. The pulse signals were analyzed with in-house software. The measured parameters were the number of pulses, the change in the waveform and the integrated signal values of the TCPs. The TCPs were measured for various field sizes with four linear accelerators. For comparison, Yu's method in which a universal counter was used was re-examined. The results showed that the variance of the measurements by the new method was reduced to approximately 1/10 of the variance by the previous method. There was no significant variation in the number of pulses due to a change in the field size in the Varian Clinac series. However, a change in the integrated signal value was observed. This tendency was different from the result of other investigations in the past. Our prediction method is able to define the cutoff voltage for the TCP acquired by digitizer. This functionality provides the capability of clearly classifying TCPs into signals and noise. In conclusion, our TCP analysis method can predict the effect of BSR on the BMC even for small-field irradiations. PMID:23096002

  18. Hydrocarbon-related diagenesis: The key to understanding trap integrity and hydrocarbon charge history in Australia`s Timor Sea?

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, G.W.; Woods, E.P.; Lisk, M.; Fellows, M.

    1996-12-31

    In the Late Miocene, the effects of continental collision partially to completely breached many charged, Mesozoic traps in Australia`s Timor Sea. An integrated geophysical and geochemical study has shown that the biodegradation of hydrocarbons leaking from these Mesozoic traps produced hydrocarbon-related diagenetic zones or HRDZs within overlying, Eocene aquifer sands. These HRDZs, which are principally defined by zones of intense carbonate cementation, are seismically-resolvable, with both their size and velocity being directly related to the amount of hydrocarbons that have passed through the aquifer sands. Consequently, the integration of observations on the seismic, velocity and isotopic characteristics of the HRDZs, the nature of present-day hydrocarbon seepage (as defined by sniffer and ALF data), and geometric relationships between the reactivation (Miocene) and trap (Jurassic) fault geometries, can provide a powerful predictive tool for evaluating and ranking undrilled structures and prospects within the Timor Sea.

  19. Genetic epidemiology of Sarcoptes scabiei (Acari: Sarcoptidae) in northern Australia.

    PubMed

    Walton, S F; Dougall, A; Pizzutto, S; Holt, D; Taplin, D; Arlian, L G; Morgan, M; Currie, B J; Kemp, D J

    2004-06-01

    Utilising three hypervariable microsatellite markers we have previously shown that scabies mites on people are genetically distinct from those on dogs in sympatric populations in northern Australia. This had important ramifications on the formulation of public health control policies. In contrast phylogenetic analyses using mitochondrial markers on scabies mites infecting multiple animal hosts elsewhere in the world could not differentiate any genetic variation between mite haplotype and host species. Here we further analyse the intra-specific relationship of Sarcoptes scabiei var. hominis with S. scabiei var. canis by using both mitochondrial DNA and an expanded nuclear microsatellite marker system. Phylogenetic studies using sequences from the mitochondrial genes coding for 16S rRNA and Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I demonstrated significant relationships between S. scabiei MtDNA haplotypes, host species and geographical location. Multi-locus genotyping using 15 microsatellite markers substantiated previous data that gene flow between scabies mite populations on human and dog hosts is extremely rare in northern Australia. These data clearly support our previous contention that control programs for human scabies in endemic areas with sympatric S. scabiei var. hominis and var. canis populations must focus on human-to-human transmission. The genetic division of dog and human derived scabies mites also has important implications in vaccine and diagnostic test development as well as the emergence and monitoring of drug resistance in S. scabiei in northern Australia. PMID:15157767

  20. Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Ray

    1993-01-01

    Presents an annotated bibliography of 25 items published by the Australian Government Publications Service in 1992-93 that deal with a wide variety of issues, including trade performance, indigenous Australians, multiculturalism, the environment, aging, privacy versus law enforcement, urban life, health, violence against women, cultural tourism,…

  1. Predicting tuberculosis among migrant groups.

    PubMed

    Watkins, R E; Plant, A J

    2002-12-01

    In industrialized countries migrants remain a high-risk group for tuberculosis (TB). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the ability of indicators of TB incidence in the country of birth to predict the incidence of TB among migrants in Australia during 1997. World Health Organization total case notifications, new smear-positive case notifications and the estimated incidence of TB by country of birth explained 55, 69 and 87% of the variance in TB incidence in Australia, respectively. Gross national income of the country of birth and unemployment level in Australia were also significant predictors of TB in migrant groups. Indicators of the incidence of TB in the country of birth are the most important group-level predictors of the rate of TB among migrants in Australia. PMID:12558347

  2. Recent trends in cyclist fatalities in Australia.

    PubMed

    Boufous, Soufiane; Olivier, Jake

    2016-08-01

    The study examines trends in bicycling fatalities reported to the Australian police between 1991 and 2013. Trends were estimated using Poisson regression modelling. Overall, cycling fatalities decreased by 1.9% annually between 1991 and 2013. However, while deaths following multivehicle crashes decreased at a rate of 2.9% per annum (95% CI -4.0% to -1.8%), deaths from single vehicle crashes increased by 5.8% per annum (95% CI 4.1% to 7.5%). Over the study period, the average age of cyclists who died in single vehicle crashes (45.3 years, 95% CI 41.5 to 49.1) was significantly higher than cyclists who died in multivehicle crashes (36.2 years, 95% CI 34.7 to 37.7). The average age of deceased cyclists increased significantly for both types of crashes. The observed increase in single vehicle crashes need to be closely monitored in Australia and internationally. In-depth studies are needed to investigate the circumstances of fatal single bicycle crashes in order to develop appropriate countermeasures. PMID:26180104

  3. Improving satellite rainfall accumulation using multiple microwave satellite soil moisture products is Australia

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Real-time satellite precipitation product is important input information for streamflow forecasting and for understanding hydrological cycles in ungauged basins. The inner basins of Australia are monitored by a very sparse gauge network and rainfall estimation in the regions does not capture the var...

  4. Vehicle crashworthiness ratings in Australia.

    PubMed

    Cameron, M; Mach, T; Neiger, D; Graham, A; Ramsay, R; Pappas, M; Haley, J

    1994-08-01

    The paper reviews the published vehicle safety ratings based on mass crash data from the United States, Sweden, and Great Britain. It then describes the development of vehicle crashworthiness ratings based on injury compensation claims and police accident reports from Victoria and New South Wales, the two most populous states in Australia. Crashworthiness was measured by a combination of injury severity (of injured drivers) and injury risk (of drivers involved in crashes). Injury severity was based on 22,600 drivers injured in crashes in the two states. Injury risk was based on 70,900 drivers in New South Wales involved in crashes after which a vehicle was towed away. Injury risk measured in this way was compared with the "relative injury risk" of particular model cars involved in two car crashes in Victoria (where essentially only casualty crashes are reported), which was based on the method developed by Folksam Insurance in Sweden from Evans' double-pair comparison method. The results include crashworthiness ratings for the makes and models crashing in Australia in sufficient numbers to measure their crash performance adequately. The ratings were normalised for the driver sex and speed limit at the crash location, the two factors found to be strongly related to injury risk and/or severity and to vary substantially across makes and models of Australian crash-involved cars. This allows differences in crashworthiness of individual models to be seen, uncontaminated by major crash exposure differences. PMID:7916859

  5. Australia's First Public Private Partnership School Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peter

    2004-01-01

    The design and construction of nine schools has commenced in Australia using a Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) methodology. This is the first project in Australia where social infrastructure has been acquired in this way. The Australian project is being managed by the New South Wales (NSW) State Government through its Department of Education…

  6. Geography in Higher Education in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibson, Chris

    2007-01-01

    This article discusses the current state of the geography discipline in higher education institutions in Australia. Geography in Australia is vulnerable--and perhaps more so than in many of the other countries covered in this special issue. Reasons for this are discussed. Amidst description of a series of struggles, this article also seeks to…

  7. Language Planning and Placenaming in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodges, Flavia

    2007-01-01

    Before colonisation Australia was fully named by its Indigenous population, but that complex network of naming was largely overlooked as Europeans introduced their own names for features and settlements. Each of Australia's states and territories now has a nomenclature authority, whose activities are coordinated through the Committee for…

  8. Compulsory Arbitration and Conciliation in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Randles, Harry E.

    The responsibility for education in Australia rests with the states. Teachers in the state of New South Wales, as in other Australian states, are employed by the Public Service Board, which determines working conditions. Teachers are administered, however, under the Department of Education. Labor disputes in Australia are settled not by formal…

  9. Skilled Migration: Australia. Working Paper No. 63

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shah, Chandra; Burke, Gerald

    2005-01-01

    Migration patterns to and from Australia are becoming complex with migration programmes increasingly targeted towards meeting the needs of the labour market and regional development. This paper provides an analysis of the permanent and temporary movements of people to and from Australia in the last three years and their impact on the skilled…

  10. Focus on: Hendra virus in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Kristopher

    2014-11-29

    Cases of Hendra virus infection in horses in Australia have been seen regularly since the virus was first isolated in 1994. Kristopher Hughes, associate professor of equine medicine at Charles Sturt University in Australia, gives an overview of how knowledge of the virus has developed in the past 20 years. PMID:25431383

  11. Policy and Indigenous Languages in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKay, Graham

    2011-01-01

    The use of Indigenous languages has been declining over the period of non-Aboriginal settlement in Australia as a result of repressive policies, both explicit and implicit. The National Policy on Languages (Lo Bianco, 1987) was the high point of language policy in Australia, given its national scope and status and its attempt to encompass all…

  12. Longitudinal monitoring of EGFR mutations in plasma predicts outcomes of NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKIs: Korean Lung Cancer Consortium (KLCC-12-02).

    PubMed

    Lee, Ji Yun; Qing, Xu; Xiumin, Wei; Yali, Bai; Chi, Sangah; Bak, So Hyeon; Lee, Ho Yun; Sun, Jong-Mu; Lee, Se-Hoon; Ahn, Jin Seok; Cho, Eun Kyung; Kim, Dong-Wan; Kim, Hye Ryun; Min, Young Joo; Jung, Sin-Ho; Park, Keunchil; Mao, Mao; Ahn, Myung-Ju

    2016-02-01

    We hypothesized that plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis for NSCLC may be feasible for monitoring treatment response to EGFR TKIs and also predict drug resistance.Clinically relevant mutations including exon 19 deletion (ex19del), L858R and T790M were analyzed using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) in longitudinally collected plasma samples (n = 367) from 81 NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKI. Of a total 58 baseline cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples available for ddPCR analysis, 43 (74.1%) had the same mutation in the matched tumors (clinical sensitivity: 70.8% [17/24] for L858R and 76.5% [26/34] for ex19del). The concordance rates of plasma with tissue-based results of EGFR mutations were 87.9% for L858R and 86.2% for ex19del. All 40 patients who were detected EGFR mutations at baseline showed a dramatic decrease of mutant copies (>50%) in plasma during the first two months after treatment. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 10.1 months for patients with undetectable EGFR v 6.3 months for detectable EGFR mutations in blood after two-month treatment (HR 3.88, 95% CI 1.48-10.19, P = 0.006). We observed emerging resistance with early detection of T790M as a secondary mutation in 14 (28.6%) of 49 patients. Plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis using ddPCR can monitor treatment response to EGFR TKIs and can lead to early detection of EGFR TKIs resistance. Further studies confirming clinical implications of EGFR mutation in plasma are warranted to guide optimal therapeutic strategies upon knowledge of treatment response and resistance. PMID:26755650

  13. Longitudinal monitoring of EGFR mutations in plasma predicts outcomes of NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKIs: Korean Lung Cancer Consortium (KLCC-12-02)

    PubMed Central

    Xiumin, Wei; Yali, Bai; Chi, Sangah; Bak, So Hyeon; Lee, Ho Yun; Sun, Jong-Mu; Lee, Se-Hoon; Ahn, Jin Seok; Cho, Eun Kyung; Kim, Dong-Wan; Kim, Hye Ryun; Min, Young Joo; Jung, Sin-Ho; Park, Keunchil; Mao, Mao; Ahn, Myung-Ju

    2016-01-01

    We hypothesized that plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis for NSCLC may be feasible for monitoring treatment response to EGFR TKIs and also predict drug resistance. Clinically relevant mutations including exon 19 deletion (ex19del), L858R and T790M were analyzed using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) in longitudinally collected plasma samples (n = 367) from 81 NSCLC patients treated with EGFR TKI. Of a total 58 baseline cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples available for ddPCR analysis, 43 (74.1%) had the same mutation in the matched tumors (clinical sensitivity: 70.8% [17/24] for L858R and 76.5% [26/34] for ex19del). The concordance rates of plasma with tissue-based results of EGFR mutations were 87.9% for L858R and 86.2% for ex19del. All 40 patients who were detected EGFR mutations at baseline showed a dramatic decrease of mutant copies (>50%) in plasma during the first two months after treatment. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 10.1 months for patients with undetectable EGFR v 6.3 months for detectable EGFR mutations in blood after two-month treatment (HR 3.88, 95% CI 1.48-10.19, P = 0.006). We observed emerging resistance with early detection of T790M as a secondary mutation in 14 (28.6%) of 49 patients. Plasma-based EGFR mutation analysis using ddPCR can monitor treatment response to EGFR TKIs and can lead to early detection of EGFR TKIs resistance. Further studies confirming clinical implications of EGFR mutation in plasma are warranted to guide optimal therapeutic strategies upon knowledge of treatment response and resistance. PMID:26755650

  14. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  15. The Protective Function of Meaning of Life on Life Satisfaction among Chinese Students in Australia and Hong Kong: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pan, Jia-Yan; Wong, Daniel Fu Keung; Joubert, Lynette; Chan, Cecilia Lai Wan

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The authors compared the predictive effects of acculturative stressors and meaning of life on life satisfaction between Chinese students in Australia and in Hong Kong. Participants: In 2006, the researchers recruited 606 Chinese students studying abroad at the University of Melbourne in Australia and at 6 universities in Hong Kong.…

  16. The remittances of migrant Tongan and Samoan nurses from Australia

    PubMed Central

    Connell, John; Brown, Richard PC

    2004-01-01

    Background Migration and remittances are of considerable importance in the small Pacific island states. There has been a significant migration of skilled health workers in recent decades to metropolitan fringe states, including Australia and New Zealand. This paper reports the findings of a re-analysis of survey of Samoan and Tongan migrants in Australia where the sample is split between nurse households and others. Methods The study analyzes the survey data with a view to comparing the remittance behaviour and determinants of remittances for nurses and other migrant households, using both descriptive, cross-tabulations and appropriate econometric methods. Results It is found that a significantly higher proportion of nurse households sent remittances home, and, on average remitted more. Remittances of nurse households did not decline significantly over time contrary to what has generally been predicted. This was in contrast to other migrant households in the sample, for whom remittances showed a sharp decline after 15 years absence. Remittances contribute much more to the income of migrant sending countries, than the cost of the additional human capital in nurse training. Conclusions Given the shortage of nurses in Australia and New Zealand, and therefore the high demand for immigrant nurses, investment by Pacific island governments and families in nurse training constitutes a rational use of economic resources. Policies encouraging investment in home countries may be more effective than policies directly discouraging brain drain in contributing to national development. PMID:15078577

  17. The remittances of migrant Tongan and Samoan nurses from Australia.

    PubMed

    Connell, John; Brown, Richard PC

    2004-04-13

    BACKGROUND: Migration and remittances are of considerable importance in the small Pacific island states. There has been a significant migration of skilled health workers in recent decades to metropolitan fringe states, including Australia and New Zealand. This paper reports the findings of a re-analysis of survey of Samoan and Tongan migrants in Australia where the sample is split between nurse households and others. METHODS: The study analyzes the survey data with a view to comparing the remittance behaviour and determinants of remittances for nurses and other migrant households, using both descriptive, cross-tabulations and appropriate econometric methods. RESULTS: It is found that a significantly higher proportion of nurse households sent remittances home, and, on average remitted more. Remittances of nurse households did not decline significantly over time contrary to what has generally been predicted. This was in contrast to other migrant households in the sample, for whom remittances showed a sharp decline after 15 years absence. Remittances contribute much more to the income of migrant sending countries, than the cost of the additional human capital in nurse training. CONCLUSIONS: Given the shortage of nurses in Australia and New Zealand, and therefore the high demand for immigrant nurses, investment by Pacific island governments and families in nurse training constitutes a rational use of economic resources. Policies encouraging investment in home countries may be more effective than policies directly discouraging brain drain in contributing to national development. PMID:15078577

  18. Significance of different carbon forms and carbonic anhydrase activity in monitoring and prediction of algal blooms in the urban section of Jialing River, Chongqing, China.

    PubMed

    Nie, Yudong; Zhang, Zhi; Shen, Qian; Gao, Wenjin; Li, Yingfan

    2016-05-18

    The Three Gorges Dam is one of the largest hydroelectric power plants worldwide; its reservoir was preliminarily impounded in 2003 and finally impounded to 175 m in 2012. The impoundment caused some environmental problems, such as algal blooms. Carbonic anhydrase (CA) is an important biocatalyst in the carbon utilization by algae and plays an important role in algal blooms. CA has received considerable attention for its role in red tides in oceans, but less investigation has been focused on its role in algal blooms in fresh water. In this study, the seasonal variation of water quality parameters, different carbon forms, carbonic anhydrase activity (CAA), and the algal cell density of four sampling sites in the urban section of the Jialing River were investigated from November 1, 2013 to October 31, 2014. Results indicated that CAA exhibited a positive correlation with dissoluble organic carbon (DOC), pH, and temperature, but a negative correlation with CO2 and dissoluble inorganic carbon (DIC). Algal cell density exhibited a positive correlation with flow velocity (V), pH, particulate organic carbon (POC), and CAA, a negative correlation with CO2, and a negative partial correlation with DIC. The relationship between CAA and algal cell density for the entire year can be described as cells = 23.278CAA - 42.666POC + 139.547pH - 1057.106. The algal bloom prediction model for the key control period can be described as cells = -45.895CAA + 776.103V- 29.523DOC + 14.219PIC + 35.060POC + 19.181 (2 weeks in advance) and cells = 69.200CAA + 203.213V + 4.184CO2 + 38.911DOC + 40.770POC - 189.567 (4 weeks in advance). The findings in this study demonstrate that the carbon utilization by algae is conducted by CA and provide a new method of monitoring algal cell density and predicting algal blooms. PMID:27142237

  19. The ability of stroke volume variation measured by a noninvasive cardiac output monitor to predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated children.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ji Yeon; Kim, Ji Young; Choi, Chang Hyu; Kim, Hong Soon; Lee, Kyung Cheon; Kwak, Hyun Jeong

    2014-02-01

    Continuous noninvasive cardiac output monitoring (NICOM) is a clinically useful tool in the pediatric setting. This study compared the ability of stroke volume variation (SVV) measured by NICOM with that of respiratory variations in the velocity of aortic blood flow (△Vpeak) and central venous pressure (CVP) to predict of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated children after ventricular septal defect repair. The study investigated 26 mechanically ventilated children after the completion of surgery. At 30 min after their arrival in an intensive care unit, a colloid solution of 10 ml/kg was administrated for volume expansion. Hemodynamic variables, including CVP, stroke volume, and △Vpeak in addition to cardiac output and SVV in NICOM were measured before and 10 min after volume expansion. The patients with a stroke volume increase of more than 15 % after volume expansion were defined as responders. The 26 patients in the study consisted of 13 responders and 13 nonresponders. Before volume expansion, △Vpeak and SVV were higher in the responders (both p values <0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of △Vpeak, SVV, and CVP were respectively 0.956 (95 % CI 0.885-1.00), 0.888 (95 % CI 0.764-1.00), and 0.331 (95 % CI 0.123-0.540). This study showed that SVV by NICOM and △Vpeak by echocardiography, but not CVP, reliably predicted fluid responsiveness during mechanical ventilation after ventricular septal defect repair in children. PMID:23963186

  20. Sound Symbolism in the Languages of Australia

    PubMed Central

    Haynie, Hannah; Bowern, Claire; LaPalombara, Hannah

    2014-01-01

    The notion that linguistic forms and meanings are related only by convention and not by any direct relationship between sounds and semantic concepts is a foundational principle of modern linguistics. Though the principle generally holds across the lexicon, systematic exceptions have been identified. These “sound symbolic” forms have been identified in lexical items and linguistic processes in many individual languages. This paper examines sound symbolism in the languages of Australia. We conduct a statistical investigation of the evidence for several common patterns of sound symbolism, using data from a sample of 120 languages. The patterns examined here include the association of meanings denoting “smallness” or “nearness” with front vowels or palatal consonants, and the association of meanings denoting “largeness” or “distance” with back vowels or velar consonants. Our results provide evidence for the expected associations of vowels and consonants with meanings of “smallness” and “proximity” in Australian languages. However, the patterns uncovered in this region are more complicated than predicted. Several sound-meaning relationships are only significant for segments in prominent positions in the word, and the prevailing mapping between vowel quality and magnitude meaning cannot be characterized by a simple link between gradients of magnitude and vowel F2, contrary to the claims of previous studies. PMID:24752356

  1. Correlates of hysterectomy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Santow, G; Bracher, M

    1992-04-01

    With around one in five women undergoing hysterectomy by the age of 50, the prevalence of hysterectomy in Australia is greater than in Europe but less than in the United States. In this paper, data from a nationally representative sample survey of 2547 Australian women aged 20-59 years are employed to identify correlates of hysterectomy and tubal sterilization over the last 30 years. Physiological, socio-economic and supply-side factors all influence the propensity to undergo hysterectomy, and a comparison with the correlates of tubal sterilization reveals parallels and contrasts between the determinants of the two operations. Age and parity are important predictors of hysterectomy. In addition, use of oral contraceptives for at least five years reduces the risk of hysterectomy, as do tubal sterilization, tertiary education and birthplace in Southern Europe. Conversely, risk increases after experiencing side effects with the IUD or repeated foetal losses, or after bearing a third child before the age of 25. PMID:1604382

  2. Coal mining methods in Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-09-01

    Continuous miner methods dominate underground while dragline stripping is today's and tomorrow's favored method on surface. Poor roof conditions in Australian underground mines and the need to operate more efficient surface mines in view of rising fuel costs are key factors in determining the mining methods for the country's premier cash commodity - coal. These and other new developments in underground and surface mining in Australia were discussed in detail at the Australian Coal Association's 1980 coal conference which was held last April in Surfers Paradise, Queensland. Two papers presented at the conference form the basis of this article; H.L. Pearce, general superintendent of the Steel Division Collieries of the Broken Hill Proprietary Company, described underground mining and K.J. Foots, manager of the Utah Development Company's Blackwater mine, talked about surface mining.

  3. The abortion debate in Australia.

    PubMed

    Read, Christine Margaret

    2006-09-01

    I recently watched a fascinating documentary about the crusade of Dr Bertram Wainer in the 1960s to bring the practice of illegal abortion in Victoria to an end. It documented the profound horror of the backyard abortion that so often ended in infection, sterility or death, and served as a potent reminder of a practice to which we must never return. Of course that cant happen again, abortion is legal now, isnt it? In Victoria in 1969 a Supreme Court judge ruled that an abortion is not unlawful if a doctor believed that: the abortion is necessary to preserve the woman from serious danger to her life or physical or mental health (Menhennit ruling). In Australia today however, abortion law remains conditional, unclear and inconsistent and, except in the ACT, is still part of criminal statutes. PMID:16969440

  4. Northwest Australia's Saladin crude assayed

    SciTech Connect

    Rhodes, A.K.

    1993-10-18

    High-quality Saladin crude oil from offshore Western Australia has been assayed. The 48.2[degree] API, 0.02 wt % sulfur crude's characteristics--determined in 1990--are presented here for the first time. The estimated 30--40 million bbl field, south of Barrow Island, is produced from two platforms in 58 ft of water in block TP 3. Production began in late 1989 from three platforms with three wells each and from two wells drilled directionally from Thevenard Island. The paper lists data on the following properties: API gravity, density, sulfur content, pour point, flash point, viscosity, salinity, heat of combustion, ash content, asphaltene content, wax content, and metal content for the whole crude and various fractions.

  5. Ageing Holocaust survivors in Australia.

    PubMed

    Paratz, Elizabeth D; Katz, Benny

    2011-02-21

    In recent years, a phenomenon of "late effects of the Holocaust" has emerged, with impacts on the psychological and physical health of ageing Holocaust survivors. As Holocaust survivors age, they may experience heightened anxiety around normal processes of ageing, worsened post-traumatic stress disorder with cognitive decline, and fear of the medical system. Holocaust survivors are at increased risk of osteoporosis, cardiometabolic disease due to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysfunction, cancer, and sequelae of Nazi medical experiments. From existing medical literature on this topic, practical principles of management are derived to create a framework for sensitive medical management of Holocaust survivors in Australia. The issues discussed are also relevant to the wider geriatric refugee or prisoner-of-war experience. PMID:21401461

  6. Treatment Success in Trypanosoma cruzi Infection Is Predicted by Early Changes in Serially Monitored Parasite-Specific T and B Cell Responses

    PubMed Central

    Cooley, Gretchen; Albareda, María C.; Viotti, Rodolfo; Perez-Mazliah, Damián E.; Lococo, Bruno; Castro Eiro, Melisa; Laucella, Susana A.; Tarleton, Rick L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is the highest impact parasitic disease in Latin America. We have proposed that changes in Trypanosoma cruzi-specific immune responses might serve as surrogate indicators of treatment success. Herein, we addressed in a long-term follow-up study whether cure achieved after treatment can be predicted by changes in non-conventional indexes of anti-parasite serological and T cell activities. Methodology/Principal Findings T. cruzi-specific T cell responses, as measured by interferon-γ ELISPOT and T. cruzi-specific antibodies assessed by ELISA, hemagglutination and immunofluorescence tests as well as by a multiplex assay incorporating 14 recombinant T. cruzi proteins were measured in 33 patients at 48–150 months post-benznidazole treatment. Cure — as assessed by conventional serological tests — was associated with an early decline in T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells and in antibody titers measured by the multiplex serological assay. Changes in the functional status and potential of T. cruzi-specific T cells, indicative of reduced antigen stimulation, provided further evidence of parasitological cure following benznidazole treatment. Patients showing a significant reduction in T. cruzi-specific antibodies had higher pre-therapy levels of T. cruzi-specific IFN-γ- producing T cells compared to those with unaltered humoral responses post-treatment. Conclusions/Significance Monitoring of appropriate immunological responses can provide earlier and robust measures of treatment success in T. cruzi infection. PMID:27128444

  7. Differences in grass pollen allergen exposure across Australia

    PubMed Central

    Beggs, Paul J.; Katelaris, Constance H.; Medek, Danielle; Johnston, Fay H.; Burton, Pamela K.; Campbell, Bradley; Jaggard, Alison K.; Vicendese, Don; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Godwin, Ian; Huete, Alfredo R.; Erbas, Bircan; Green, Brett J.; Newnham, Rewi M.; Newbigin, Ed; Haberle, Simon G.; Davies, Janet M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma are important chronic diseases posing serious public health issues in Australia with associated medical, economic, and societal burdens. Pollen are significant sources of clinically relevant outdoor aeroallergens, recognised as both a major trigger for, and cause of, allergic respiratory diseases. This study aimed to provide a national, and indeed international, perspective on the state of Australian pollen data using a large representative sample. Methods Atmospheric grass pollen concentration is examined over a number of years within the period 1995 to 2013 for Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney, including determination of the ‘clinical’ grass pollen season and grass pollen peak. Results The results of this study describe, for the first time, a striking spatial and temporal variability in grass pollen seasons in Australia, with important implications for clinicians and public health professionals, and the Australian grass pollen-allergic community. Conclusions These results demonstrate that static pollen calendars are of limited utility and in some cases misleading. This study also highlights significant deficiencies and limitations in the existing Australian pollen monitoring and data. Implications Establishment of an Australian national pollen monitoring network would help facilitate advances in the clinical and public health management of the millions of Australians with asthma and allergic rhinitis. PMID:25648730

  8. Australia's TERN: Advancing Ecosystem Data Management in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phinn, S. R.; Christensen, R.; Guru, S.

    2013-12-01

    Globally, there is a consistent movement towards more open, collaborative and transparent science, where the publication and citation of data is considered standard practice. Australia's Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) is a national research infrastructure investment designed to support the ecosystem science community through all stages of the data lifecycle. TERN has developed and implemented a comprehensive network of ';hard' and ';soft' infrastructure that enables Australia's ecosystem scientists to collect, publish, store, share, discover and re-use data in ways not previously possible. The aim of this poster is to demonstrate how TERN has successfully delivered infrastructure that is enabling a significant cultural and practical shift in Australia's ecosystem science community towards consistent approaches for data collection, meta-data, data licensing, and data publishing. TERN enables multiple disciplines, within the ecosystem sciences to more effectively and efficiently collect, store and publish their data. A critical part of TERN's approach has been to build on existing data collection activities, networks and skilled people to enable further coordination and collaboration to build each data collection facility and coordinate data publishing. Data collection in TERN is through discipline based facilities, covering long term collection of: (1) systematic plot based measurements of vegetation structure, composition and faunal biodiversity; (2) instrumented towers making systematic measurements of solar, water and gas fluxes; and (3) satellite and airborne maps of biophysical properties of vegetation, soils and the atmosphere. Several other facilities collect and integrate environmental data to produce national products for fauna and vegetation surveys, soils and coastal data, as well as integrated or synthesised products for modelling applications. Data management, publishing and sharing in TERN are implemented through a tailored data

  9. Mesozoic/Cenozoic tectonic events around Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, R. Dietmar; Gaina, Carmen; Tikku, Anahita; Mihut, Dona; Cande, Steven C.; Stock, Joann M.

    We use an absolute and relative plate motion model for the plates around Australia to identify major plate tectonic events, evaluate their causes, and investigate their effects on anomalous intraplate subsidence or uplift and on the history of oceanic crustal accretion. An event at ˜136 Ma is marked by the onset of sea floor spreading between Greater India and Australia. At about this time long-lived subduction east of Australia ceased, probably due to subduction of the Phoenix-Pacific spreading ridge, changing this plate boundary to a transform margin. Between 130 and 80 Ma, Australia and East Antarctica moved eastward in the Atlantic-Indian mantle hotspot reference frame. This can be plausibly linked to ridge push from the NW-SE oriented spreading center NW of Australia and to the inferred geometry and continued subduction of the Phoenix plate beneath the West Antarctic margin. A drastic change in spreading direction between the Indian and Australian plates from NE-SW to N-S occurred at about 99 Ma, possibly caused by a change in absolute motion of the Pacific Plate. Chron 27 (˜61 Ma) marks the onset of relative motion between East and West Antarctica, and a change in the relative motion between Australia and Antarctica. It may be linked to the subduction of a segment of the Neo-Tethyan Ridge. Both events caused anomalous subsidence on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. The almost stationary position of Australia w.r.t. the mantle from ˜80 Ma to ˜40 Ma may reflect the progressive subduction of the Pacific-Phoenix ridge to the east of New Zealand preceding 80 Ma, resulting in a diminished trench suction force east of Australia. Preliminary reconstructions to close the Pacific-Australian plate circuit based on recently collected geophysical data indicate that a tectonic event at 43 Ma may mark the onset of renewed subduction east of Australia. At the same time spreading in the Wharton Basin between India and Australia ceased, and tectonic reactivation is

  10. An Assessment of Policies Guiding School Emergency Disaster Management for Students with Disabilities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen Joanna; Pagliano, Paul; Brown, Lawrence; Tsey, Komla

    2012-01-01

    Recent weather-related disasters (i.e., floods, fires) impacting Australia may potentially increase in frequency and severity as a result of predicted climate variability. The dearth of literature pertaining to school emergency response planning for vulnerable students with disabilities (including those with intellectual disabilities) when such…

  11. Limited sensitivity analysis of ARAIM availability for LPV-200 over Australia using real data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Mowafy, A.; Yang, C.

    2016-01-01

    Current availability of Advanced Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (ARAIM) for LPV-200 in aviation is experimentally investigated using real navigation data and GPS measurements collected at 60 stations across Australia. ARAIM algorithm and fault probabilities were first discussed. Availability sensitivity analysis due to changes in the elevation mask angle and the error model parameters URA, URE, and nominal biases for integrity and accuracy used for computation of the protection level is presented. It is shown that incorporation of other GNSS constellation with GPS in ARAIM is needed to achieve LPV-200 Australia wide. The inclusion of BeiDou with GPS at two tests sites in Western and Eastern Australia demonstrates the promising potential of achieving this goal.

  12. The Efficacy of Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring Using Transcranial Electrically Stimulated Muscle-evoked Potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for Predicting Postoperative Segmental Upper Extremity Motor Paresis After Cervical Laminoplasty

    PubMed Central

    Manabe, Hideki; Izumi, Bunichiro; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Kawai, Kazumi; Tanaka, Nobuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Study Design: Prospective study. Objective: To investigate the efficacy of transcranial electrically stimulated muscle-evoked potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for predicting postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy following cervical laminoplasty. Summary of Background Data: Postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy, especially in the deltoid and biceps (so-called C5 palsy), is the most common complication following cervical laminoplasty. Some papers have reported that postoperative C5 palsy cannot be predicted by TcE-MsEPs, although others have reported that it can be predicted. Methods: This study included 160 consecutive cases that underwent open-door laminoplasty, and TcE-MsEP monitoring was performed in the biceps brachii, triceps brachii, abductor digiti minimi, tibialis anterior, and abductor hallucis. A >50% decrease in the wave amplitude was defined as an alarm point. According to the monitoring alarm, interventions were performed, which include steroid administration, foraminotomies, etc. Results: Postoperative deltoid and biceps palsy occurred in 5 cases. Among the 155 cases without segmental upper extremity palsy, there were no monitoring alarms. Among the 5 deltoid and biceps palsy cases, 3 had significant wave amplitude decreases in the biceps during surgery, and palsy occurred when the patients awoke from anesthesia (acute type). In the other 2 cases in which the palsy occurred 2 days after the operation (delayed type), there were no significant wave decreases. In all of the cases, the palsy was completely resolved within 6 months. Discussion: The majority of C5 palsies have been reported to occur several days after surgery, but some of them have been reported to occur immediately after surgery. Our results demonstrated that TcE-MsEPs can predict the acute type, whereas the delayed type cannot be predicted. Conclusions: A >50% wave amplitude decrease in the biceps is useful to predict acute-type segmental upper extremity palsy. Further examination

  13. Seasonal drivers of the epidemiology of arthropod-borne viruses in Australia.

    PubMed

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Walker, Peter J; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Jeanne, Isabelle; Holmes, Edward C

    2014-11-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses are a major cause of emerging disease with significant public health and economic impacts. However, the factors that determine their activity and seasonality are not well understood. In Australia, a network of sentinel cattle herds is used to monitor the distribution of several such viruses and to define virus-free regions. Herein, we utilize these serological data to describe the seasonality, and its drivers, of three economically important animal arboviruses: bluetongue virus, Akabane virus and bovine ephemeral fever virus. Through epidemiological time-series analyses of sero-surveillance data of 180 sentinel herds between 2004-2012, we compared seasonal parameters across latitudes, ranging from the tropical north (-10°S) to the more temperate south (-40°S). This analysis revealed marked differences in seasonality between distinct geographic regions and climates: seasonality was most pronounced in southern regions and gradually decreased as latitude decreased toward the Equator. Further, we show that both the timing of epidemics and the average number of seroconversions have a strong geographical component, which likely reflect patterns of vector abundance through co-varying climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall. Notably, despite their differences in biology, including insect vector species, all three viruses exhibited very similar seasonality. By revealing the factors that shape spatial and temporal distributions, our study provides a more complete understanding of arbovirus seasonality that will enable better risk predictions. PMID:25412443

  14. Seasonal Drivers of the Epidemiology of Arthropod-Borne Viruses in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Geoghegan, Jemma L.; Walker, Peter J.; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Jeanne, Isabelle; Holmes, Edward C.

    2014-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses are a major cause of emerging disease with significant public health and economic impacts. However, the factors that determine their activity and seasonality are not well understood. In Australia, a network of sentinel cattle herds is used to monitor the distribution of several such viruses and to define virus-free regions. Herein, we utilize these serological data to describe the seasonality, and its drivers, of three economically important animal arboviruses: bluetongue virus, Akabane virus and bovine ephemeral fever virus. Through epidemiological time-series analyses of sero-surveillance data of 180 sentinel herds between 2004–2012, we compared seasonal parameters across latitudes, ranging from the tropical north (−10°S) to the more temperate south (−40°S). This analysis revealed marked differences in seasonality between distinct geographic regions and climates: seasonality was most pronounced in southern regions and gradually decreased as latitude decreased toward the Equator. Further, we show that both the timing of epidemics and the average number of seroconversions have a strong geographical component, which likely reflect patterns of vector abundance through co-varying climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall. Notably, despite their differences in biology, including insect vector species, all three viruses exhibited very similar seasonality. By revealing the factors that shape spatial and temporal distributions, our study provides a more complete understanding of arbovirus seasonality that will enable better risk predictions. PMID:25412443

  15. Data Quality Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Has It Been Worth It? An Evaluation and Prediction of the Future by All Stakeholders

    PubMed Central

    Kalali, Amir; West, Mark; Walling, David; Hilt, Dana; Engelhardt, Nina; Alphs, Larry; Loebel, Antony; Vanover, Kim; Atkinson, Sarah; Opler, Mark; Sachs, Gary; Nations, Kari; Brady, Chris

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the CNS Summit Data Quality Monitoring Workgroup analysis of current data quality monitoring techniques used in central nervous system (CNS) clinical trials. Based on audience polls conducted at the CNS Summit 2014, the panel determined that current techniques used to monitor data and quality in clinical trials are broad, uncontrolled, and lack independent verification. The majority of those polled endorse the value of monitoring data. Case examples of current data quality methodology are presented and discussed. Perspectives of pharmaceutical companies and trial sites regarding data quality monitoring are presented. Potential future developments in CNS data quality monitoring are described. Increased utilization of biomarkers as objective outcomes and for patient selection is considered to be the most impactful development in data quality monitoring over the next 10 years. Additional future outcome measures and patient selection approaches are discussed. PMID:27413584

  16. Coral reproduction in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, James; Speed, Conrad W; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia's remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of the

  17. Total Solar Eclipse Australia - Nov. 13, 2012

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Nov. 13, 2012, a narrow corridor in the southern hemisphere experienced a total solar eclipse. The corridor lay mostly over the ocean but also cut across the northern tip of Australia where both...

  18. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Meyers, Gary A.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.

    2009-02-01

    Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called ``Big Dry''. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the ``Big Dry'' and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the ``Big Dry'', its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

  19. Salt reduction in Australia: from advocacy to action

    PubMed Central

    Trieu, Kathy; Dunford, Elizabeth; Nowson, Caryl; Jolly, Kellie-Ann; Greenland, Rohan; Reimers, Jenny; Bolam, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    , both are voluntary and the extent of industry uptake is not yet clear. There is also no parallel public awareness campaign to try and influence consumer behaviour relating to salt and no agreed mechanism for monitoring national changes in salt intake. The Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth) has recently instigated a State-level partnership to advance action and will launch its strategy in 2015. Conclusions In conclusion, salt reduction activities are currently being implemented through a variety of different programs but additional efforts and more robust national monitoring mechanisms are required to ensure that Australia is on track to achieve the proposed 30% reduction in salt intake within the next decade. PMID:26090332

  20. Evaluation of the anti-HER2 C6.5 diabody as a PET radiotracer to monitor HER2 status and predict response to trastuzumab treatment

    PubMed Central

    Reddy, Smitha; Shaller, Calvin C.; Doss, Mohan; Shchaveleva, Irina; Marks, James D.; Yu, Jian Q.; Robinson, Matthew K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The rapid tumor targeting and pharmacokinetic properties of engineered antibodies make them potentially suitable for use in imaging strategies to predict and monitor response to targeted therapies. This study aims to evaluate C6.5 diabody (C6.5db), a non-covalent anti-HER2 single chain-Fv dimer, as a radiotracer for predicting response to HER2-targeted therapies such as trastuzumab. Experimental Design Immunodeficient mice bearing established HER2-positive tumor xenografts were injected with radioiodinated C6.5db and imaged using PET/CT. Radiotracer biodistribution was quantified using biopsied tumor and normal tissues. Potential competition between trastuzumab and C6.5db was examined in vitro by flow cytometry and co-immunoprecipitations. Results Biodistribution analysis of mice bearing xenografts with varying HER2 density revealed that the tumor uptake of 125I-C6.5db correlates with HER2 tumor density. In vitro competition experiments suggest that the C6.5db targets an epitope on HER2 that is distinct from that bound by trastuzumab. Treatment of SK-OV-3-tumored mice with trastuzumab for 3 d caused a 42% (P=0.002) decrease in tumor uptake of 125I-C6.5db. This is consistent with a dramatic decrease in the tumor PET signal of 124I-C6.5db after trastuzumab treatment. Furthermore, BT-474-tumored mice showed a ∼60% decrease (P=0.0026) in C6.5db uptake after 6 d of trastuzumab treatment. Immunohistochemistry of excised xenograft sections and in vitro flow cytometry revealed that the decreased C6.5db uptake upon trastuzumab treatment is not associated with HER2 downregulation. Conclusions These studies suggest that 124I-C6.5db-based imaging can be used to evaluate HER2 levels as a predictor of respone to HER2-directed therapies. PMID:21177408

  1. Migrant Families in Australia. Working Paper 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storer, Des

    Since 1947, some 3.5 million migrants have entered Australia, giving birth to 2.2 million children. Whereas, in 1947 only 9.8% of Australia's populace were of overseas birth and less than 3% were of non-Anglo Saxon origin, by 1976, some 20% were of overseas birth, some 39% had been born overseas or had a parent born overseas, and some 25% had been…

  2. Home haemodialysis in remote Australia.

    PubMed

    Villarba, Angelina; Warr, Kevin

    2004-12-01

    The Royal Perth Hospital provides access to dialysis treatment to Indigenous Australians living in remote areas of Western Australia who are suffering from end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The Remote Area Dialysis Programme (RADP), established in 1989, relocated traditional hospital services to remote communities and introduced home or community-based therapy. This unique state-wide programme was developed in cooperation with tribal elders in Aboriginal communities, and regional medical, nursing and community health staff. Prior to RADP's establishment, these patients faced the choice of permanent relocation to Perth for dialysis treatment or death from renal failure. Development of the RADP allowed Indigenous patients with ESRD to receive dialysis treatment in their own home/community. Requirements for home haemodialysis include establishing the suitability and capability of patients, the availability of carers and an appropriate home or community environment for dialysis machine installation. This has required novel strategies to address cultural and language impediments to home therapy. The remoteness of some isolated communities has been a technical challenge for the dialysis technicians due to the uncertainty of power supply, climatic extremes and inadequate supply or poor quality of water. A specific training program has been developed to adapt to the needs of Aboriginal patients. Patients undertaking home haemodialysis face many challenges and a number of initiatives will need to be implemented to ensure the ongoing success of the programme. PMID:15601405

  3. Soil respiration dynamics under reduced rainfall in a eucalypt forest ecosystem in SE-Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinko-Najera, N.; Arndt, S. K.; Livesley, S. J.; Fest, B.

    2011-12-01

    Soil respiration is the major pathway by which CO2 is released from a forest ecosystem to the atmosphere. Hence it is a central part of the carbon balance and carbon sink strengths of forests. Soil respiration shows high spatial and temporal variability and is dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. Its component fluxes are controlled by different carbon sources: decomposition of soil organic matter or litter (heterotrophic respiration) or allocation of assimilated carbon belowground (autotrophic respiration). As such, these processes may respond differently to environmental change. Heatwaves, fires and reduced rainfall are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity in south-eastern Australia. It is not clear how soil respiration processes will respond to this changing climate and the implications for Australia's forest carbon balance. Soil respiration has been measured under reduced rainfall treatments and control plots using closed-dynamic manual chambers linked to a Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer in a temperate dry eucalypt forest. In addition soil greenhouse gas dynamics are monitored using automated chambers linked to a Fourier Transform Infra Red spectrometer. Forest net carbon exchange is determined using eddy-covariance measurements as part of a long-term ecosystem research project. This presentation focuses on data collected using manual chambers where soil respiration and its component heterotrophic (root exclusion), autotrophic (indirectly) and litter decomposition (indirectly) fluxes have been measured for 1.5 years with regards to their 1) spatial variability, 2) environmental drivers and 3) response to reduced rainfall (40%). First results show total soil respiration (TSR) decreased on average by 16% under reduced rainfall treatment and varied with season according to soil temperature with lowest rates during winter/autumn and highest rates during spring/summer. The contribution of heterotrophic respiration (RH) was on average 28% and

  4. Dryland salinity in Western Australia: managing a changing water cycle.

    PubMed

    Taylor, R J; Hoxley, G

    2003-01-01

    Clearing of agricultural land has resulted in significant changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology. Currently about 10% of agricultural land in Western Australia is affected by dryland salinity and between a quarter and a third of the area is predicted to be lost to salinity before a new hydrological equilibrium is reached. This paper develops a general statement describing the changes to the surface and groundwater hydrology of the wheatbelt of Western Australia between preclearing, the year 2000 and into the future. For typical catchments in the wheatbelt it is estimated that average groundwater recharge and surface runoff have increased about tenfold when comparing the current hydrology to that preclearing. Saline groundwater discharge and flood volumes have also increased significantly. Saline groundwater discharge and associated salt load will probably double in the future in line with the predicted increase in the area of dryland salinity. In addition, future increases in the area of dryland salinity/permanent waterlogging will probably double the volumes in flood events and further increase surface runoff in average years. The outcomes of surface and groundwater management trials have been briefly described to estimate how the hydrology would be modified if the trials were implemented at a catchment scale. These results have been used to formulate possible integrated revegetation and drainage management strategies. The future hydrology and impacts with and without integrated management strategies have been compared. PMID:12793681

  5. Immigration in two federations: Canada and Australia.

    PubMed

    Atchison, J

    1988-03-01

    The need for increasingly widespread application of a policy or program, settlement, and multiculturalism is urgent in both Canada and Australia. For both countries there is a clear pattern of coalescence and divergence and the distinct growth of immigration as a federal function. While Australia has strengthened federal functions in a area of increasingly geo-political need, Canada is moving towards a looser model of federalism. By 1918 both countries were strengthening their federal functions in immigration as discussions within the British Empire on the recommendations of the 1917 Dominions Royal Commission took root. Both countries were interested in agricultural immigration and land settlement. The Great Depression caused a major reduction in population growth rates. From 1933-1948 Canada had a poor record of providing sanctuary for Jews. In Australia, however, Jewish voluntary agencies were aiding the reception of refugees by 1937. The 1st permanent embodiment of commonwealth jurisdiction over immigration was the establishment of an Immigration Branch within the Department of Interior around 1938. Australia needed extra population for defense. The major structural link between government and the immigrant communities was through the Good Neighbor Movement, which began on a nationwide basis in 1950. Both Canada and Australia are major receiving countries for refugees. In 1973 Australia reached the position of effective, practical nondiscrimination achieved by Canada in 1967. Prime Minister Trudeau's policy was multiculturalism within a framework of bilingualism. By 1978 Australia had a new federalism policy, which in all areas concerned with immigrants, refugees and ethnicity, rationalized resources allocation and imposed a political philosophy. The foci of multiculturalism in Australia are 1) community languages; 2) creation of a tolerant, non-discriminatory society; and 3) equity and participation. In 1978 Australia specified population replacement and

  6. MaxEnt analysis of a water distribution network in Canberra, ACT, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldrip, Steven H.; Niven, Robert K.; Abel, Markus; Schlegel, Michael; Noack, Bernd R.

    2015-01-01

    A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method is developed to infer the state of a pipe flow network, for situations in which there is insufficient information to form a closed equation set. This approach substantially extends existing deterministic methods for the analysis of engineered flow networks (e.g. Newton's method or the Hardy Cross scheme). The network is represented as an undirected graph structure, in which the uncertainty is represented by a continuous relative entropy on the space of internal and external flow rates. The head losses (potential differences) on the network are treated as dependent variables, using specified pipe-flow resistance functions. The entropy is maximised subject to "observable" constraints on the mean values of certain flow rates and/or potential differences, and also "physical" constraints arising from the frictional properties of each pipe and from Kirchhoff's nodal and loop laws. A numerical method is developed in Matlab for solution of the integral equation system, based on multidimensional quadrature. Several nonlinear resistance functions (e.g. power-law and Colebrook) are investigated, necessitating numerical solution of the implicit Lagrangian by a double iteration scheme. The method is applied to a 1123-node, 1140-pipe water distribution network for the suburb of Torrens in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia, using network data supplied by water authority ACTEW Corporation Limited. A number of different assumptions are explored, including various network geometric representations, prior probabilities and constraint settings, yielding useful predictions of network demand and performance. We also propose this methodology be used in conjunction with in-flow monitoring systems, to obtain better inferences of user consumption without large investments in monitoring equipment and maintenance.

  7. Measles surveillance in Victoria, Australia.

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yung-Hsuan J.; Andrews, Ross M.; Lambert, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Many countries are implementing measles elimination strategies. In Australia, the State of Victoria has conducted enhanced measles surveillance since 1997 using case interviews and home-based specimen collection for laboratory confirmation. We attempted to identify features of notified cases that would better target surveillance resources. METHODS: We retrospectively classified notifications received from 1998 to 2003 as having been received in an epidemic (one or more laboratory-confirmed cases) or an interepidemic period (no laboratory-confirmed cases). We labelled the first case notified in any epidemic period that was not laboratory-confirmed at the time of notification as a "sentinel case". To maximize detection of sentinel cases while minimizing the follow-up of eventually discarded notifications, we generated algorithms using sentinel cases and interepidemic notifications. FINDINGS: We identified 10 sentinel cases with 422 interepidemic notifications from 1281 Victorian notifications. Sentinel cases were more likely to report fever at rash onset (odds ratio (OR) 15.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 2.1-688.9), cough (OR 10.4, 95% CI: 1.4-456.7), conjunctivitis (OR 7.9, 95% CI: 1.8-39.1), or year of birth between 1968 and 1981 (OR 31.8, 95% CI: 6.7-162.3). Prospective application of an algorithm consisting of fever at rash onset or born between 1968 and 1981 in the review period would have detected all sentinel cases and avoided the need for enhanced follow-up of 162 of the 422 eventually discarded notifications. CONCLUSION: Elimination strategies should be refined to suit regional and local priorities. The prospective application of an algorithm in Victoria is likely to reduce enhanced measles surveillance resource use in interepidemic periods, while still detecting early cases during measles outbreaks. PMID:16501727

  8. Modelling climate impact on water in Australia: issues, methods and uncertainty (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiew, F. H.

    2010-12-01

    Australia is going through a significant period of water reform. The increasing demand for water for cities, industries, irrigation and the environment, and the current prolonged drought in southern Australia and predictions of a drier future are putting immense pressure on water resources. The management challenge in Australia is compounded by the low runoff coefficient and high river flow variability in Australia compared to elsewhere in the world. To underpin water planning and management, several large modelling studies to assess historical and future water availability were recently completed. This paper will discuss the different methods that can be used to estimate future water availability. Simple rules of thumb based on climate elasticities of streamflow and Budyko-type energy and water balance equations can be used for data limited regions or where only mean annual estimates are required. More detailed studies will combine projections from global and regional climate models, methods to downscale climate model projections to catchment-scale climate series and hydrological models that properly consider potential changes in dominant hydrological processes in a warmer, drier and higher CO2 environment. This paper will show that the largest uncertainty in predicting future water availability is in the projections of regional climate, in particular rainfall. For example, there is little agreement between the different global climate models on the direction of change in rainfall in the northern half of continental Australia. However, over the highly populated and important agricultural regions of south-eastern Australia, a large majority of climate models indicate a drier future. The median result from hydrological modelling with future climate projections from more than 20 global climate models indicate that averaged across south-eastern Australia, there will be 10 percent less water (range of result from -30 percent to +10 percent) for a 1oC global warming

  9. A review of seawater intrusion and its management in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Adrian D.

    2010-02-01

    Extended periods of below-average rainfall combined with a rising population density in the Australian coastal margin have led to higher stresses on coastal water resources, and the risk of seawater intrusion has increased. Despite reports of seawater intrusion in the majority of states and evidence that some Australian coastal aquifers are seriously depleted, comprehensive seawater intrusion investigations have only been completed for coastal systems in Queensland and to a lesser degree in Western Australia and South Australia. The degree of assessment appears to be linked to the perceived economic value of the groundwater resource. The most detailed studies include those of the Pioneer Valley and Burnett basins in Queensland, for which conceptual and mathematical models have been developed at the regional scale, and have been used to underpin trigger-level management approaches to protect against further seawater intrusion. Historical responses to seawater intrusion include the establishment of artificial recharge schemes; the most prominent being that of the Lower Burdekin aquifers in Queensland. Recommendations for future solutions include enhanced fit-for-purpose seawater intrusion monitoring, continuing research into investigation methods, and improved knowledge-sharing through education programs and the development of national guidelines for seawater intrusion assessment and management.

  10. Potential value of automated daily screening of cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator diagnostics for prediction of major cardiovascular events: results from Home-CARE (Home Monitoring in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy) study

    PubMed Central

    Sack, Stefan; Wende, Christian Michael; Nägele, Herbert; Katz, Amos; Bauer, Wolfgang Rudolf; Barr, Craig Scott; Malinowski, Klaus; Schwacke, Harald; Leyva, Francisco; Proff, Jochen; Berdyshev, Sergey; Paul, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    Aim To investigate whether diagnostic data from implanted cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (CRT-Ds) retrieved automatically at 24 h intervals via a Home Monitoring function can enable dynamic prediction of cardiovascular hospitalization and death. Methods and results Three hundred and seventy-seven heart failure patients received CRT-Ds with Home Monitoring option. Data on all deaths and hospitalizations due to cardiovascular reasons and Home Monitoring data were collected prospectively during 1-year follow-up to develop a predictive algorithm with a predefined specificity of 99.5%. Seven parameters were included in the algorithm: mean heart rate over 24 h, heart rate at rest, patient activity, frequency of ventricular extrasystoles, atrial–atrial intervals (heart rate variability), right ventricular pacing impedance, and painless shock impedance. The algorithm was developed using a 25-day monitoring window ending 3 days before hospitalization or death. While the retrospective sensitivities of the individual parameters ranged from 23.6 to 50.0%, the combination of all parameters was 65.4% sensitive in detecting cardiovascular hospitalizations and deaths with 99.5% specificity (corresponding to 1.83 false-positive detections per patient-year of follow-up). The estimated relative risk of an event was 7.15-fold higher after a positive predictor finding than after a negative predictor finding. Conclusion We developed an automated algorithm for dynamic prediction of cardiovascular events in patients treated with CRT-D devices capable of daily transmission of their diagnostic data via Home Monitoring. This tool may increase patients’ quality of life and reduce morbidity, mortality, and health economic burden, it now warrants prospective studies. ClinicalTrials.gov  NCT00376116. PMID:21852311

  11. Monitoring microstructural evolution of alloy 617 with non-linear acoustics for remaining useful life prediction; multiaxial creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting

    SciTech Connect

    Lissenden, Cliff; Hassan, Tasnin; Rangari, Vijaya

    2014-10-30

    The research built upon a prior investigation to develop a unified constitutive model for design-­by-­analysis of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) for a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) design of next generation nuclear plants (NGNPs). Model development requires a set of failure data from complex mechanical experiments to characterize the material behavior. Therefore uniaxial and multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting tests were conducted on the nickel-­base Alloy 617 at 850 and 950°C. The time dependence of material behavior, and the interaction of time dependent behavior (e.g., creep) with ratcheting, which is an increase in the cyclic mean strain under load-­controlled cycling, are major concerns for NGNP design. This research project aimed at characterizing the microstructure evolution mechanisms activated in Alloy 617 by mechanical loading and dwell times at elevated temperature. The acoustic harmonic generation method was researched for microstructural characterization. It is a nonlinear acoustics method with excellent potential for nondestructive evaluation, and even online continuous monitoring once high temperature sensors become available. It is unique because it has the ability to quantitatively characterize microstructural features well before macroscale defects (e.g., cracks) form. The nonlinear acoustics beta parameter was shown to correlate with microstructural evolution using a systematic approach to handle the complexity of multiaxial creep-­fatigue and creep-­ratcheting deformation. Mechanical testing was conducted to provide a full spectrum of data for: thermal aging, tensile creep, uniaxial fatigue, uniaxial creep-­fatigue, uniaxial creep-ratcheting, multiaxial creep-fatigue, and multiaxial creep-­ratcheting. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Optical Microscopy were conducted to correlate the beta parameter with individual microstructure mechanisms. We researched

  12. Toxicity of surficial sediments from Sydney Harbour and vicinity, Australia.

    PubMed

    McCready, S; Spyrakis, G; Greely, C R; Birch, G F; Long, E R

    2004-01-01

    The toxicological responses of three species to 103 surficial saltwater sediment samples from Sydney Harbour, and coastal lakes and estuaries on the south-east coast of New South Wales, Australia, were tested in a battery of four to six laboratory toxicity tests. This is the first large-scale toxicological study of sediments in Australia, the objective of which is to assess the protective and predictive abilities of North American biological effects-based sediment quality guidelines, recently adopted in Australia. Amphipods were exposed to whole sediments in survival and reburial tests, sea urchin fertilisation and larval development tests were conducted on porewaters, and bacterial bio-luminescence (Microtox) tests were conducted on organic solvent extracts and porewaters. Local indigenous species were used for the amphipod and sea urchin tests (Corophium sp. and Heliocidaris tuberculata, respectively). A wide range of responses, from <25 to 100% of negative controls were observed in all tests. Mean control-adjusted responses ranged from 46 to 96% for all tests. The percentages of highly toxic samples ranged from 11 to 83% in the various tests. The order of test sensitivity was: amphipod survival < Microtox test of porewaters < amphipod reburial < sea urchin larval development < sea urchin fertilisation < Microtox test of solvent extracts. Concordance between toxicity tests in classifying samples as highly toxic or not, ranged from 47 to 79%, indicating some similarities between test results, but not complete equivalence. Combined toxicity test results showed that the incidence of highly toxic responses occurring in the majority of tests (75-100% of tests) was low (5% of samples), but a large percentage of samples had highly toxic results in at least one test (76% of samples). Toxicity was more pervasive in the Sydney region than in coastal lakes and estuaries south of Sydney. The current study demonstrated the utility of indigenous invertebrate species and the

  13. Coral reproduction in Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Speed, Conrad W.; Babcock, Russ

    2016-01-01

    Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia’s remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of

  14. Alcohol policy and harm reduction in Australia.

    PubMed

    Loxley, Wendy; Gray, Dennis; Wilkinson, Celia; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Midford, Richard; Moore, David

    2005-11-01

    With consultations having been held across Australia this year as part of the process of developing a new National Alcohol Strategy, it seemed timely to invite my colleagues from the National Drug Research Institute who are experts in the alcohol field to write this Harm Reduction Digest. The authors have canvassed a range of alcohol policy options and discussed their effectiveness in reducing harm for what is arguably Australia's number one drug problem. Australia's response to alcohol and other drug problems has, historically, been based on 'harm minimization--incorporating supply reduction, demand reduction and harm reduction'. At this time where the policy options for alcohol are being set for the next 5 years in a climate of 'small government', removing restrictions of 'fair competition' in business and a belief in the free market, what does the research have to say about recommended policies and strategies to reduce alcohol-related harm? PMID:16361215

  15. Institutional impediments to population policy in Australia.

    PubMed

    Mcnicoll, G

    1995-11-01

    Despite having almost the highest rate of population growth among OECD countries, Australia has no explicit population policy. The potential elements of such a policy, especially with regard to immigration, family, and environment, are deeply entrenched in separate political domains and responsive to separate clusters of interests. Vague, demographically ill-informed, and mutually inconsistent views of a desired population size or trajectory for Australia co-exist, with no arena for any systematic engagement and considered debate among them. Parallels to the case of Australia can be drawn with Canada and the US. Population policy may well be one of the issues that modern liberal democracies find particularly difficult to manage. There are, however, also specific historical circumstances which led to the outcome and perpetuate the situation. Population processes and the institution of citizenship, and contested policy domains are discussed. PMID:12321981

  16. Predicting biological effects of environmental mixtures using exposure:activity ratios (EAR) derived from US EPA’s ToxCast data: Retrospective application to chemical monitoring data

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chemical monitoring has been widely used in environmental surveillance to assess exposure to environmental contaminants which could represent potential hazards to exposed organisms. However, the ability to detect chemicals in the environment has rapidly outpaced assessment of pot...

  17. Are LGBT populations at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors in Australia? Research findings and implications.

    PubMed

    Skerrett, Delaney M; Kõlves, Kairi; De Leo, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this article is to review the Australian literature about suicidality in minority sexual identity and/or behavior groups in order to determine the evidence base for their reported higher vulnerability to suicidal behaviors than heterosexual and non-transgendered individuals in the Australian context, as well as to identify the factors that are predictive of suicidal behaviors in these groups in Australia. A literature search for all available years (until the end of 2012) was conducted using the databases Scopus, Medline, and Proquest for articles published in English in peer-reviewed academic journals. All peer-reviewed publications that provided empirical evidence for prevalence and predictive factors of suicidal behaviors among LGBT individuals (or a subset thereof) in Australia were included. Reference lists were also scrutinized to identify "gray" literature for inclusion. The results revealed that there is only limited research from Australia. Nevertheless, although no population-based studies have been published, research indicates that sexual minorities are indeed at a higher risk for suicidal behaviors. In order to further the understanding of suicidal behaviors and potential prevention among LGBT groups in the Australia, further research is needed, particularly on fatal suicidal behaviors. PMID:25569508

  18. [Immigration and labor: Australia and Canada compared].

    PubMed

    Iacovetta, F; Quinlan, M

    1995-08-01

    "Australia and Canada share...a common colonial history and many similarities in geography, economy, demography, etc., as well as a substantial anti-non anglo-celtic immigrant tradition, in spite of their being immigration countries. Those similarities and differences are analyzed here, as far as labor migration and relationships between immigrant and local labor are concerned. The arrival of European labor first, Asian later, was perceived similarly by both Australia and Canada, combining racial prejudice and unions' hostility towards contract labor migration as well as towards assisted migration. The evolution of those difficult relations through the 19th and 20th centuries is analyzed here." (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12291896

  19. Reproductive health patterns: Georgia versus Australia.

    PubMed

    Asatiani, T; Abuladze, N; Ward, H; Angel, P

    2015-03-01

    The review compares a few reproductive indicators - fertility, abortion and contraception in both a developing (Georgia) and a developed (Australia) country. Fertility, abortion and contraception figures in both countries tend to reflect the attitude and the degree of development of each countries sexual health education and their use of effective contraception. Further research is required to accurately evaluate the need and access of Georgian women to modern methods of family planning and their knowledge of the benefits of modern contraception that can assist to reduce pregnancy termination rate. In Australia better insight is needed on how to facilitate a shift to more efficacious long-term contraceptives across all age groups. PMID:25879552

  20. Roaming yuppies: Hong Kong migration to Australia.

    PubMed

    Wong, S

    1994-01-01

    "Hong Kong has been the top source for Asian migration to Australia in recent years. The majority of the Hong Kong migrants are young, educated professionals. Using survey data conducted in Hong Kong on emigration tendencies, this article analyzes why they are leaving Hong Kong, what attracts them to Australia, and what impact this influx has on Australian society. It is speculated that this movement may create an enduring change in the identity of emigrant Hong Kongers and have a wider significance in the contradictory currents of geopolitics and geoeconomics which are simultaneously encouraging and resisting migration." PMID:12289778

  1. The Moho in Australia and New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmon, Michelle; Kennett, Brian; Sambridge, Malcolm; Stern, Tim

    2013-04-01

    Australia and New Zealand share in part a history in the Gondwana supercontinent. Australia has a long and complex tectonic history with the last major accretion in the early Paleozoic, whereas New Zealand is still undergoing major plate boundary processes. The Australian continent is relatively well covered with both active and passive seismic techniques. Multiple sources of information are therefore available for building a model of Moho depth. Results from on-shore and off-shore refraction experiments are supplemented by receiver functions from a large number of portable stations and the recently augmented set of permanent stations. Moho picks from more than 10500 km of full-crustal reflection profiles provide valuable additional constraints. The composite data set provides good sampling of much of Australia, though coverage remains low in some remote desert areas. The various datasets provide multiple estimates of the depth to Moho in many regions, and the consistency between the different techniques is high. Some of the thinnest crust lies beneath the Archean craton in the Pilbara, and in the neighbourhood of the Simpson desert. Thick crust is encountered beneath parts of the Proterozoic in Central Australia, and beneath the Paleozoic Lachlan fold belt in southeastern Australia. There are a number of zones of sharp contrast in depth to Moho, notably in the southern part of Central Australia. Despite most of the continental material around New Zealand being submerged, Moho data for this region is mainly onshore concentrating on the Australia-Pacific plate boundary. Two major wide-angle reflection transects provide the bulk of the active source data with just a few traditional reflection profiles offshore. The plate bound- ary provides an abundance of local earthquakes for tomographic imaging and this data is supplemented with receiver functions from both portable and permanent networks.Onshore the combined coverage is as dense as that of Australia, although it

  2. The Moho in Australia and New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmon, M.; Kennett, B. L. N.; Stern, T.; Aitken, A. R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Australia and New Zealand share in part a history in the Gondwana supercontinent. Australia has a long and complex tectonic history with the last major accretion in the early Paleozoic, whereas New Zealand is still undergoing major plate boundary processes. The Australian continent is relatively well covered with both active and passive seismic techniques. Multiple sources of information are therefore available for building a model of Moho depth. Results from on-shore and off-shore refraction experiments are supplemented by receiver functions from a large number of portable stations and the recently augmented set of permanent stations. Moho picks from more than 10 500 km of full-crustal reflection profiles provide valuable additional constraints. The composite data set provides good sampling of much of Australia, though coverage remains low in some remote desert areas. The various datasets provide multiple estimates of the depth to Moho in many regions, and the consistency between the different techniques is high. Some of the thinnest crust lies beneath the Archean craton in the Pilbara, and in the neighbourhood of the Simpson desert. Thick crust is encountered beneath parts of the Proterozoic in Central Australia, and beneath the Paleozoic Lachlan fold belt in southeastern Australia. There are a number of zones of sharp contrast in depth to Moho, notably in the southern part of Central Australia. Despite most of the continental material around New Zealand being submerged, Moho data for this region is mainly onshore concentrating on the Australia-Pacific plate boundary. Two major wide-angle reflection transects provide the bulk of the active source data with just a few traditional reflection profiles offshore. The plate boundary provides an abundance of local earthquakes for tomographic imaging and this data is supplemented with receiver functions from both portable and permanent networks. Onshore the combined coverage is as dense as that of Australia, although it

  3. Status of Women In Physics in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, C. P.

    2009-04-01

    The status of women in physics is Australia has remained mostly steady until recently, with the appointment of several eminent women in major government of public roles. Australia seems to maintain the same gender ratio for those studying and working in physics. There is no overall coordination of programs to assist women into the workplace but there is generally goodwill. Success in attracting and retaining women in the physics workforce appears to depend on the local culture, initiatives, and attitude of the most senior person in the organization.

  4. Landsat Based Woody Vegetation Loss Detection in Queensland, Australia Using the Google Earth Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, K.; Phinn, S. R.; Taylor, M.

    2014-12-01

    Land clearing detection and woody Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) monitoring at the state and national level in Australia has mainly been undertaken by state governments and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) because of the considerable expense, expertise, sustained duration of activities and staffing levels needed. Only recently have services become available, providing low budget, generalized access to change detection tools suited to this task. The objective of this research was to examine if a globally available service, Google Earth Engine Beta, could be used to predict woody vegetation loss with accuracies approaching the methods used by TERN and the government of the state of Queensland, Australia. Two change detection approaches were investigated using Landsat Thematic Mapper time series and the Google Earth Engine Application Programming Interface: (1) CART and Random Forest classifiers; and (2) a normalized time series of Foliage Projective Cover (FPC) and NDVI combined with a spectral index. The CART and Random Forest classifiers produced high user's and producer's mapping accuracies of clearing (77-92% and 54-77%, respectively) when detecting change within epochs for which training data were available, but extrapolation to epochs without training data reduced the mapping accuracies. The use of FPC and NDVI time series provided a more robust approach for calculation of a clearing probability, as it did not rely on training data but instead on the difference of the normalized FPC / NDVI mean and standard deviation of a single year at the change point in relation to the remaining time series. However, the FPC and NDVI time series approach represented a trade-off between user's and producer's accuracies. Both change detection approaches explored in this research were sensitive to ephemeral greening and drying of the landscape. However, the developed normalized FPC and NDVI time series approach can be tuned to provide automated alerts for large

  5. A Case of Language Revitalisation in "Settled" Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsh, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents a case of language revitalisation in "settled" Australia, considers the nature of the language ecology in indigenous Australia, and advances some of the reasons for the success of this case of language revitalization. (Author/VWL)

  6. Biodiversity in Australia: What, Where, and for How Long?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Panizzon, Debra; Boulton, Andrew

    2000-01-01

    Australia's most serious environmental problem is the loss of biological diversity, or biodiversity. Australia harbors much of the world's species diversity and has remarkably high numbers of endemic species. Reviews current threats to biodiversity and efforts to protect and enhance it in Australia. (Contains 29 references.) (Author/ASK)

  7. Global Position and Position Taking: The Case of Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marginson, Simon

    2007-01-01

    From 1990 to 2003, Australia's share of the global market in cross-border degrees grew from 1% to 9%. Full fee-paying foreign students now constitute one quarter of enrolments, and education is Australia's third largest services export. Positioned as an Anglo-American system on the edge of Asia, Australia has differentiated itself from the United…

  8. Internationalization in Australia and Canada: Lessons for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaw, Kelly

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the internationalization of postsecondary education in Australia and Canada. The author discusses the contextual similarities and differences between the two countries, the shifting rationale "from aid to trade" behind Australia's internationalization attempts and some of the reasons for Australia's success.…

  9. Sex Education in South Australia: The Past and the Present

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talukdar, Joy; Aspland, Tania; Datta, Poulomee

    2013-01-01

    In South Australia, sex education has been controversial since its inception. The Australasian White Cross league and the Family Planning Association of South Australia were the pioneers of sex education in South Australia. The framing of a national framework and the implementation of the SHARE (Sexual Health and Relationships Education) project…

  10. William C. Reeves and arbovirus research in Australia.

    PubMed

    Doherty, R L

    1987-11-01

    William C. Reeves was invited to Australia in 1952 to take part in field studies of Murray Valley encephalitis. The results of his work led to various hypotheses which directed arbovirus research in Australia for a generation. That and the people he influenced in Australia made him a major figure in the development of Australian arbovirus research. PMID:2825554

  11. 22 CFR 120.35 - Australia Implementing Arrangement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Australia Implementing Arrangement. 120.35 Section 120.35 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS PURPOSE AND DEFINITIONS § 120.35 Australia Implementing Arrangement. Australia Implementing Arrangement means...

  12. Novel measles virus genotype, East Timor and Australia.

    PubMed

    Chibo, Doris; Riddell, Michaela; Catton, Michael; Birch, Christopher

    2002-07-01

    Measles outbreaks in 1999 in Queensland and Victoria, Australia, were caused by a novel strain of clade G virus (proposed name g3). Epidemiologic and molecular evidence supports independent circulation of this virus in Queensland, northern Australia, in addition to importation of the virus by East Timor refugees seeking safe haven in Australia. PMID:12095446

  13. Induced urinary crystal formation as an analytical strategy for the prediction and monitoring of urolithiasis and other metabolism-related disorders

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Crystal formation reflects the entire composition of the surrounding solution. In case of urolithiasis, induced crystal formation in native urine has led to the development of the Bonn-Risk-Index (BRI), a valuable tool to quantify an individual's risk of calcium oxalate urolithiasis. If the progression of a disease is associated with characteristic changes in the activities of urinary components, this leads to an altered urinary crystallisation capacity. Therefore, the results of induced urinary crystal formation can be used to detect and monitor any disease linked to the altered urinary composition. Since crystal formation inherently takes into account the entire urinary composition, the influence of the disease on individual urinary parameters does not have to be known in order to monitor the consequent pathologic alterations. In this paper, we review the background of urinary crystal formation analysis and describe its established application in urolithiasis monitoring as well as potential further fields of clinical application. PMID:25206937

  14. The Teaching of Japanese in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marriott, Helen E.

    1992-01-01

    The article surveys the development of Japanese language courses in Australia, noting a variety of factors contribute to the growth and recent intensification of interest in the subject. It examines problems within Japanese language teaching and discusses further innovative course development, differentiation of needs, employer perceptions, and…

  15. School Security Assessment Programme in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marrapodi, John

    2007-01-01

    This article describes a successful security risk management programme in Australia. The state-wide programme follows a structured risk management approach focusing on the safety and security of people, information, provision, and assets in the school environment. To assist school principals, a Security Risk Assessment Programme was developed on a…

  16. Hendra Virus Infection in Dog, Australia, 2013

    PubMed Central

    Gabor, Melinda; Poe, Ian; Neale, Kristie; Chaffey, Kim; Finlaison, Deborah S.; Gu, Xingnian; Hick, Paul M.; Read, Andrew J.; Wright, Therese; Middleton, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Hendra virus occasionally causes severe disease in horses and humans. In Australia in 2013, infection was detected in a dog that had been in contact with an infected horse. Abnormalities and viral RNA were found in the dog’s kidney, brain, lymph nodes, spleen, and liver. Dogs should be kept away from infected horses. PMID:26583697

  17. Latest statistics on cardiovascular disease in Australia.

    PubMed

    Waters, Anne-Marie; Trinh, Lany; Chau, Theresa; Bourchier, Michael; Moon, Lynelle

    2013-06-01

    The results presented herein summarize the most up-to-date cardiovascular statistics available at this time in Australia. The analysis presented here is based on and extends results published in two Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reports, namely Cardiovascular disease: Australian facts 2011 and the cardiovascular disease (CVD) section of Australia's Health 2012. Despite significant improvements in the cardiovascular health of Australians in recent decades, CVD continues to impose a heavy burden on Australians in terms of illness, disability and premature death. Direct health care expenditure for CVD exceeds that for any other disease group. The most recent national data have been analysed to describe patterns and trends in CVD hospitalization and death rates, with additional analysis by Indigenous status, remoteness and socioeconomic group. The incidence of and case-fatality from major coronary events has also been examined. Although CVD death rates have declined steadily in Australia since the late 1960s, CVD still accounts for a larger proportion of deaths (33% in 2009) than any other disease group. Worryingly, the rate at which the coronary heart disease death rate has been falling in recent years has slowed in younger (35-54 years) age groups. Between 1998-99 and 2009-10, the overall rate of hospitalizations for CVD fell by 13%, with declines observed for most major CVDs. In conclusion, CVD disease remains a significant health problem in Australia despite decreasing death and hospitalization rates. PMID:23517328

  18. Learning around Town: Learning Communities in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henderson, Liz; Castles, Rachel; McGrath, Majella; Brown, Tony

    This booklet explains the features and benefits of learning communities and summarizes Australia's experience with them. Part 1 traces the history of learning communities from the 1970s through the present, presents several definitions of the term "learning community," lists reasons for becoming a learning community, and explains the importance of…

  19. The History of Distance Education in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stacey, Elizabeth

    2005-01-01

    Australia's large distances and widely distributed population has meant that distance education has been an important part of its history. From the earliest provision of schooling by mail through a series of correspondence schools, both state and federal governments have provided a sound infrastructure to support distance education. Innovative…

  20. Social Inclusion and Critical Consciousness in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diemer, Matthew A.; Ortega, Lilyana

    2010-01-01

    Australia's Indigenous population is excluded from a range of opportunities, experiences and amenities that facilitate wellbeing, self-determination and social inclusion. This social exclusion constrains the career development and occupational attainment of Indigenous youth, which represent key routes to societal inclusion. Critical…

  1. Changing Patterns of Teacher Education in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aspland, Tania

    2006-01-01

    This paper is designed to portray the historical development of teacher education in Australia. The paper is presented in three parts, each of which represents a "turn" in the evolution of teacher education. The first details the historical development of teacher education prior to the establishment of the first teachers college in…

  2. Research Update: Outdoor Education Fatalities in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookes, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    This paper is part of an on-going project to examine outdoor education related deaths in Australia since 1960. It records eleven incidents not included in previous papers in this series. A total of 14 students or staff died in the incidents. The paper reviews the incidents and identifies what further lessons can be learned about fatality…

  3. An Environmentally Sustainable Development in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Ruth

    2003-01-01

    The future Kelvin Grove Urban Village in Queensland, Australia, is an example of how principles of environmentally sustainable design have translated into practice. Those responsible for the new project recognise the importance of building design that respects the environment by using resources efficiently and minimising pollution. The site's…

  4. Evolution of Vocational Rehabilitation Competencies in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matthews, Lynda R.

    2010-01-01

    Over the past decade, there has been growth in the delivery of vocational rehabilitation services globally, as countries seek to control disability-related expenditure, yet there has been minimal research outside the United States on competencies required to work in this area. This study reports on research conducted in Australia to determine…

  5. The Adult Educator in Multicultural Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grassby, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The Australian Commissioner for Community Relations describes and criticizes the Australian traditional ethnocentrism and xenophobia, pointing out that Australia is and always has been a multicultural society. He emphasizes the need for wide changes in education and notes the potential of lifelong and adult community education. (MF)

  6. New Focus for Space Research in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cairns, Iver

    Australia was the fourth nation to launch a spacecraft into orbit from its own territory, in 1967. Its second satellite followed 35 years later, when FedSat was launched in December 2002. Australia had and continues to have world experts in many areas of space science and technology. Several of these have participated in international missions, even sometimes with government support and funding to collaborate on designing and building an instrument for an international mission (e.g., AATSR on ESA's Envisat). Despite this Australia has no coordinated national space effort or dedicated funding for space research. Few linkages existed between Universities, Government units, and industry or across the field. This talk describes efforts to change this situation by developing the first Decadal Plan for Australian Space Science. The Plan's vision is "World-leading innovative space science and technology, strong domestic capability, and international collaborations that build Australia a long term, productive presence in Space". The talk describes the process and summarises the recommendations of the Australian space science community. These include creation of a national coordination committee (ACCSS), scientific themes and goals, and the science, education, and outreach projects necessary to accomplish them. The science projects involve ground-based assets, spacecraft missions, theory/modelling programs, and technology development and testing.

  7. Australia: Evaluation and Quality in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodhouse, David; Stokes, Terry

    2010-01-01

    Modern Australia evolved from separate colonies, which came together as a federation a century ago. The balance of state/federal responsibilities is relevant to most aspects of Australian life. This includes higher education, where universities are largely state owned but federally funded (with government funding declining), while the other higher…

  8. Training for rural practice in Australia 1990.

    PubMed

    Hickner, J M

    1991-01-21

    There is a shortage of general practitioners in rural Australia. Several recent State and federal government reports have highlighted the difficulties of rural practice. One of the reasons commonly cited for the shortage of country doctors is the lack of appropriate training in Australia's medical schools and the Family Medicine Programme. This survey of the heads of departments of community medicine/general practice of Australia's 10 medical schools and of the State directors of the Family Medicine Programme documents the present efforts to train doctors for rural general practice. A 100% response was achieved. The responses indicate much interest and effort from the Family Medicine Programme in developing rural training schemes. Though the community medicine/general practice departments demonstrate considerable interest and innovation, they are hampered by lack of resources and negative attitudes of some specialist colleagues. Overall, the main impediments are: lack of "affirmative action" admissions policies to recruit rural students; insufficient curricular time for teaching the principles of general practice; students' lack of confidence in the procedural aspects of rural practice; lack of appropriate training posts in anaesthetics; lack of appropriate general practice training posts at regional hospitals; and lack of financial resources. Some suggestions are given to improve training for rural practice in Australia. PMID:1986187

  9. Teaching Educational Leadership and Administration in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bates, Richard; Eacott, Scott

    2008-01-01

    Despite the ubiquity of programmes in educational administration and leadership little is known about the resources used to teach them. This article reviews the sources currently employed in such programmes in Australia by examining the textbooks, book chapters and journal articles specified for 53 separate units (papers) offered at 15 of the key…

  10. Severe spotted fever group rickettsiosis, Australia.

    PubMed

    McBride, William J H; Hanson, Joshua P; Miller, Robert; Wenck, Drew

    2007-11-01

    We report 3 cases of spotted fever group rickettsial infection (presumed Queensland tick typhus) in residents of northern Queensland, Australia, who had unusually severe clinical manifestations. Complications included renal failure, purpura fulminans, and severe pneumonia. Clinical illness caused by Rickettsia australis may not be as benign as previously described. PMID:18217560

  11. Tertiary Education in Australia: Part II

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berends, Willem

    2012-01-01

    Australia has no Christian universities or Christian liberal arts colleges other than Australian Catholic University, which has six campuses in five cities. This paper examines one long-term attempt to set up such an institution, which ended in the project being abandoned for lack of progress. Some likely reasons for failure are identified in the…

  12. Politics of Teacher Education in NSW, Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deer, Christine E.; And Others

    This paper examines political and government changes affecting higher education in Australia, particularly as they impact upon teacher education, and with specific emphasis upon practices in New South Wales (NSW). Structural features of the governance of education at the federal and state/territory levels are outlined, noting that teacher…

  13. Outline of Vocational Training in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Australian Dept. of Labour and National Service, Perth.

    Australia is a federation of six states and two territories with a population of 11.5 million. It depends heavily on agricultural export and a growing manufacturing industry. Responsibility for education lies with the state governments which are administered centrally because of sparse population. School attendance is required to age 15 with…

  14. "Whole Language" and Moral Panic in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gannon, Susanne; Sawyer, Wayne

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the media and political landscapes within which "whole language" is currently constituted in Australia. Through surveying the themes and rhetoric deployed in media texts over recent years, we consider how "whole language" has been taken up as part of a wider media campaign around education generally. We consider how this…

  15. Review Essay: Inclusive Practices in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carroll, AnneMaree

    2002-01-01

    This essay reviews "Special Education: A Matter of Choice" (Josephine Jenkinson), a book that discusses the major issues and changes that have occurred in special education in the various states and territories of Australia over the past 30 years. It is concluded that the book is an extremely useful guide. (CR)

  16. Divorce in Australia. Working Paper No. 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Donald E.; Harrison, Margaret

    This working paper discusses the effects of recent legislative changes regarding divorce in Australia. The introduction describes the 1975 Family Law Act and gives a summary of its principles. The second section presents background information to the Act and lists the philosophical principles behind its formation. The third section describes…

  17. Medical e-commerce for regional Australia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, D K; Mikelaitis, P

    2001-12-01

    The residents of rural and regional Australia have less access to health care services than in capital cities. There is a reluctance of General Practitioners to practice in the country. New information technology and government initiatives are now addressing this problem. High bandwidth videoconferencing is now being routinely used to provide psychiatric consultations to areas without this service. But this (like many other implementations of telecommunication technologies to health) has resulted in loss of revenue to regional Australia while benefiting capital cities. Thus, the current implementation of telecommunication technology to health has resulted in loss of revenue of the regions while increasing the bias towards the cities. Further, the system is not economically viable and requires the Government to inject funds for the smooth operation of the system. This paper proposes the use of telecommunication technology for enabling the communities of regional Australia to access health facilities via physical and virtual clinics. The proposed technique is self supporting and is based in the country with the intent to prevent the drain of resources from regional Australia. The technique attempts to eradicate the problem at the root level by providing a business opportunity that is based in and to cater for the needs of the remote communities. The proposed system would provide health services by physical and virtual clinics and while serving the communities would be profit centres- and thus attracting doctors and other resources to the remote communities. PMID:11929136

  18. Language Planning and Language Policy in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liddicoat, Anthony, Ed.

    1991-01-01

    A five-year period of particular activity in Australian language policy and language planning culminated with the 1991 publication of the White Paper called Australia's Language, which outlines proposed government programs in languages until 1994. Many of the papers in this theme issue of the journal of the Applied Linguistics Association of…

  19. The First Suggestopedia German Course in Australia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gassner-Roberts, Sigrid

    An account of personal experiences and experiments with a suggestopedic German course taught at the University of Adelaide in Australia is presented. Summaries of the students' background and of their continuous achievements in the German class are provided. The class was conducted primarily according to the "Manual of Classroom Procedures Based…

  20. Developing a National Geography Curriculum for Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maude, Alaric Mervyn

    2014-01-01

    Australia is in the process of implementing a national geography curriculum to replace the separate state and territory curriculums. The paper describes the process of curriculum development, and identifies the different groups that were involved. These included the board and staff of the national curriculum authority, geography teachers across…

  1. Worker Education in Australia and New Zealand.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagglund, George

    The history of the recent development of worker education in Australia and New Zealand shows that, in just the past 15 years or so, very significant improvements have occurred in delivery of trade union education. To a very large degree these developments took place because of the existence of a close relationship between the union movement and…

  2. National Report on Australia's Higher Education Sector.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Australian Dept. of Employment, Education and Training, Canberra.

    This document provides an official record of key events in the development of higher education in Australia from 1982-91 and documents the characteristics of the system and the individual institutions at the beginning of the 1990s. A foreword describes the Australian higher education sector, key developments of the decade, the sectoral balance,…

  3. Academic Salaries in Australia, 1967 to 1990.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marginson, Simon

    1989-01-01

    Trends in college faculty salaries in Australia since 1967 are examined, in real terms, for several academic ranks and in comparison with salaries of scientists, senior public service administrators and managers, and public service engineers. Faculty salary losses since a 1973 high are substantial, both over time and in comparison with other…

  4. The Inclusive Secondary School Teacher in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearce, Michelle

    2009-01-01

    As a result of the 1992 Disability Discrimination Act in Australia and parental support for inclusion, regular teachers now include students with disabilities in their classes. Inclusion has been more successful in primary than in secondary schools. Secondary schools remain a challenge due to their traditional focus on curriculum, examinations,…

  5. Tertiary Education and Training in Australia, 2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2011

    2011-01-01

    Sourcing data from the National VET Provider Collection and the Higher Education Statistics Collection, this publication provides a summary of participation in tertiary education and training in Australia. It covers participation in Australian Qualifications Framework certificate I qualifications through to doctorates by research, as well as…

  6. Remote Access Laboratories in Australia and Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-01-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments…

  7. Remote access laboratories in Australia and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ku, H.; Ahfock, T.; Yusaf, T.

    2011-06-01

    Remote access laboratories (RALs) were first developed in 1994 in Australia and Switzerland. The main purposes of developing them are to enable students to do their experiments at their own pace, time and locations and to enable students and teaching staff to get access to facilities beyond their institutions. Currently, most of the experiments carried out through RALs in Australia are heavily biased towards electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines. However, the experiments carried out through RALs in Europe had more variety, in addition to the traditional electrical, electronic and computer engineering disciplines, there were experiments in mechanical and mechatronic disciplines. It was found that RALs are now being developed aggressively in Australia and Europe and it can be argued that RALs will develop further and faster in the future with improving Internet technology. The rising costs of real experimental equipment will also speed up their development because by making the equipment remotely accessible, the cost can be shared by more universities or institutions and this will improve their cost-effectiveness. Their development would be particularly rapid in large countries with small populations such as Australia, Canada and Russia, because of the scale of economy. Reusability of software, interoperability in software implementation, computer supported collaborative learning and convergence with learning management systems are the required development of future RALs.

  8. Hendra Virus Infection in Dog, Australia, 2013.

    PubMed

    Kirkland, Peter D; Gabor, Melinda; Poe, Ian; Neale, Kristie; Chaffey, Kim; Finlaison, Deborah S; Gu, Xingnian; Hick, Paul M; Read, Andrew J; Wright, Therese; Middleton, Deborah

    2015-12-01

    Hendra virus occasionally causes severe disease in horses and humans. In Australia in 2013, infection was detected in a dog that had been in contact with an infected horse. Abnormalities and viral RNA were found in the dog's kidney, brain, lymph nodes, spleen, and liver. Dogs should be kept away from infected horses. PMID:26583697

  9. Public Engagement and Nanotechnology in Australia.

    PubMed

    Dalton-Brown, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Upstream engagement is commonly regarded as necessary for the smooth implementation of new technologies, particularly when there is an impact on health. Is the healthcare context in Australia geared toward such public engagement? There are established engagement practices for issues of healthcare resourcing, for example; however, the situation becomes more complex with the introduction of a new technology such as nanomedicine. PMID:27348837

  10. Australia's international health relations in 2003

    PubMed Central

    Barraclough, Simon

    2005-01-01

    A survey for the year 2003 of significant developments in Australia's official international health relations, and their domestic ramifications, is presented. The discussion is set within the broader context of Australian foreign policy. Sources include official documents, media reports and consultations with officers of the Department of Health and Ageing responsible for international linkages. PMID:15720728

  11. Tuberculosis notifications in Australia, 2012 and 2013.

    PubMed

    Toms, Cindy; Stapledon, Richard; Waring, Justin; Douglas, Paul

    2015-06-01

    The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System received 1,317 tuberculosis (TB) notifications in 2012 and 1,263 notifications in 2013. This represents a rate of 5.8 per 100,000 population in 2012 and 5.5 per 100,000 population in 2013 and a reversal of the upward trend in TB incidence reported since 2007. In 2012 and 2013, Australia's overseas-born population continued to represent the majority of TB notifications with an incidence rate of 19.5 per 100,000 and 18.4 per 100,000 respectively. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born Indigenous population has fluctuated over the last decade; however, it remained reasonably steady in 2012 and 2013 with an incidence rate of 4.5 per 100,000 and 4.6 per 100,000 respectively. The incidence of TB in the Australian-born non-Indigenous population has continued to remain low at 0.7 per 100,000 in 2012 and 0.8 per 100,000 in 2013. Australia continued to record only a small number of multi-drug resistant TB cases nationally (2012: n=20; 2013: n=22) of which nearly all were identified in the overseas-born population. This report demonstrates excellent and sustained control of TB in Australia and reflects Australia's commitment to reducing the global burden of TB. PMID:26234258

  12. The Outlook for Training in Australia's Industries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Leabrook (Australia).

    This book, which is intended primarily for Australia's vocational education and training (VET) sector, industry decision makers, and policymakers, provides an overview of occupational trends and the current training effort relating to occupations in Australian industry. Chapter 1 traces economic and labor market changes and the changing…

  13. Liver transplantation in Australia and New Zealand.

    PubMed

    McCaughan, Geoffrey W; Munn, Stephen R

    2016-06-01

    Liver transplantation (LT) in Australia and New Zealand began in 1985. Over this time until December 2014, LT took place in 3700 adults and 800 children. LT is regulated with 1 unit, supported by the government, per state or region. Currently approximately 270 transplants take place per year. Organ donation rates are moderate in Australia (17 per 1 million of population) but very low in New Zealand (11 per 1 million of population). All the units share organ donors for fulminant hepatic failure cases (status 1). Recipient listing criteria and organ allocation criteria are commonly agreed to via National and Trans-Tasman agreements, which are published online. Current survival rates indicate approximately 94% 1-year survival with median survival in adults of approximately 20 years, whereas 75% of children are alive at 20 years. All units collaborate in research projects via the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry and have published highly cited articles particularly on the prevention of hepatitis B virus recurrence. Outcomes for indigenous populations have also been analyzed. In conclusion, LT in Australia and New Zealand is well developed with transparent processes related to criteria for listing and organ allocation together with publication of outcomes. Liver Transplantation 22 830-838 2016 AASLD. PMID:27028552

  14. Tertiary Education in Australia: Part I

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sands, Edward Wilfrid; Berends, Willem

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the foundation and development of universities in Australia and New Zealand and demonstrates how these universities were established on a secular basis. Educators from other continents with a mainly Christian history are often surprised that there is so little evidence of Christian input into the university sector in…

  15. In Australia: Multiple Intelligences in Multiple Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vialle, Wilma

    1997-01-01

    In Australia, Gardner's multiple-intelligences theory has strongly influenced primary, preschool, and special education. A survey of 30 schools revealed that teachers use two basic approaches: teaching to, and teaching through, multiple intelligences. The first approach might develop children's music skills via playing an instrument. The second…

  16. Improving the Quality of Teaching in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinham, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Australia needs to more effectively attract, train, support, retain, recognize, and reward quality teachers throughout their careers. After a slow start and decades of debate, the pieces of the quality teaching puzzle are now coming together. Increased federal government intervention and financial support, along with state and territorial support…

  17. Tertiary Education in Australia: A Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundberg, Kristine, Comp.

    A bibliography on tertiary education in Australia is presented. The following topics are included: tertiary education of aborigines; academic salaries; colleges of advanced education; community colleges; the constitutional and legal basis of education; courses and awards; educational policy and the politics of education; entrance requirements;…

  18. Deferring a University Offer in Rural Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polesel, John

    2009-01-01

    A trend of increasing regional disadvantage is suggested in the pattern of rising rates of deferral of university places amongst rural school-completers in Australia. Cost-related factors and financial barriers are prominent in the reasons given by these young people for deferring a place at university. These trends formed the impetus for a study…

  19. Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica, Tasmania, Australia, 2011.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Justin; McGregor, Alistair; Cooley, Louise; Ng, Jimmy; Brown, Mitchell; Ong, Chong Wei; Darcy, Catharine; Sintchenko, Vitali

    2012-09-01

    We report a case of ulceroglandular tularemia that developed in a woman after she was bitten by a ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) in a forest in Tasmania, Australia. Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica was identified. This case indicates the emergence of F. tularensis type B in the Southern Hemisphere. PMID:22931809

  20. Francisella tularensis Subspecies holarctica, Tasmania, Australia, 2011

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Justin; McGregor, Alistair; Cooley, Louise; Ng, Jimmy; Brown, Mitchell; Ong, Chong Wei; Darcy, Catharine

    2012-01-01

    We report a case of ulceroglandular tularemia that developed in a woman after she was bitten by a ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) in a forest in Tasmania, Australia. Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica was identified. This case indicates the emergence of F. tularensis type B in the Southern Hemisphere. PMID:22931809