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Sample records for based life prediction

  1. Life prediction modeling based on strainrange partitioning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    1988-01-01

    Strainrange partitioning (SRP) is an integrated low-cycle-fatigue life predicting system. It was created specifically for calculating cyclic crack initiation life under severe high-temperature fatigue conditions. The key feature of the SRP system is its recognition of the interacting mechanisms of cyclic inelastic deformation that govern cyclic life at high temperatures. The SRP system bridges the gap between the mechanistic level of understanding that breeds new and better materials and the phenomenological level wherein workable engineering life prediction methods are in great demand. The system was recently expanded to address engineering fatigue problems in the low-strain, long-life, nominally elastic regime. This breakthrough, along with other advances in material behavior and testing technology, has permitted the system to also encompass low-strain thermomechanical loading conditions. Other important refinements of the originally proposed method include procedures for dealing with life-reducing effects of multiaxial loading, ratcheting, mean stresses, nonrepetitive (cumulative loading) loading, and environmental and long-time exposure. Procedure were also developed for partitioning creep and plastic strain and for estimating strainrange versus life relations from tensile and creep rupture properties. Each of the important engineering features of the SRP system are discussed and examples shown of how they help toward predicting high-temperature fatigue life under practical, although complex, loading conditions.

  2. Life prediction modeling based on cyclic damage accumulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, where initiation was defined as a 0.030 inch surface length crack. A principal engineering feature of the CDA method is the minimum data base required for implementation. Model constants can be evaluated through a few simple specimen tests such as monotonic loading and rapic cycle fatigue. The method was expanded to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loadings such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. A significant data base was generated on the behavior of the cast nickel-base superalloy B1900+Hf, including hundreds of specimen tests under such loading conditions. This information is being used to refine and extend the CDA life prediction model, which is now nearing completion. The model is also being verified using additional specimen tests on wrought INCO 718, and the final version of the model is expected to be adaptable to most any high-temperature alloy. The model is currently available in the form of equations and related constants. A proposed contract addition will make the model available in the near future in the form of a computer code to potential users.

  3. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating.

    PubMed

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

  4. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

  5. An Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework for In-Service Structural Components

    SciTech Connect

    H. Ozaltun; M. H.H. Shen; T. George; C. Cross

    2011-06-01

    An energy based fatigue life prediction framework has been developed for calculation of remaining fatigue life of in service gas turbine materials. The purpose of the life prediction framework is to account aging effect caused by cyclic loadings on fatigue strength of gas turbine engines structural components which are usually designed for very long life. Previous studies indicate the total strain energy dissipated during a monotonic fracture process and a cyclic process is a material property that can be determined by measuring the area underneath the monotonic true stress-strain curve and the sum of the area within each hysteresis loop in the cyclic process, respectively. The energy-based fatigue life prediction framework consists of the following entities: (1) development of a testing procedure to achieve plastic energy dissipation per life cycle and (2) incorporation of an energy-based fatigue life calculation scheme to determine the remaining fatigue life of in-service gas turbine materials. The accuracy of the remaining fatigue life prediction method was verified by comparison between model approximation and experimental results of Aluminum 6061-T6. The comparison shows promising agreement, thus validating the capability of the framework to produce accurate fatigue life prediction.

  6. Low Cycle Fatigue Behavior and Life Prediction of a Cast Cobalt-Based Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ho-Young; Kim, Jae-Hoon; Yoo, Keun-Bong

    Co-base superalloys have been applied in the stationary components of gas turbine owing to their excellent high temperature properties. Low cycle fatigue data on ECY-768 reported in a companion paper were used to evaluate fatigue life prediction models. In this study, low cycle fatigue tests are performed as the variables of total strain range and temperatures. The relations between plastic and total strain energy densities and number of cycles to failure are examined in order to predict the low cycle fatigue life of Cobalt-based super alloy at different temperatures. The fatigue lives is evaluated using predicted by Coffin-Manson method and strain energy methods is compared with the measured fatigue lives at different temperatures. The microstructure observing was performed for how affect able to low-cycle fatigue life by increasing the temperature.

  7. Battery Life Predictive Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2009-12-31

    The Software consists of a model used to predict battery capacity fade and resistance growth for arbitrary cycling and temperature profiles. It allows the user to extrapolate from experimental data to predict actual life cycle.

  8. A strength-based wearout model for predicting the life of composite structures

    SciTech Connect

    Schaff, J.R.; Davidson, B.D.

    1997-12-31

    A model to predict the residual strength and life of polymeric composite structures subjected to spectrum fatigue loadings is described. The model is based on the fundamental assumptions that the structure undergoes proportional loading, that the residual strength is a monotonically decreasing function of the number of fatigue cycles, and that both the life distribution due to continuous constant amplitude cycling and the residual strength distribution after an arbitrary load history may be represented by two parameter Weibull functions. The model also incorporates a cycle mix factor to account for the drastic reduction of fatigue life that may be caused by a large number of changes in the stress amplitude of the loading. The model`s predictions are compared to experimentally determined fatigue life distributions for uniaxial loadings of a number of laminates comprised of different materials and layups. Constant-amplitude, two-stress level, and spectrum fatigue loadings, including the FALSTAFF (Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue) spectrum, are considered. The theoretical fatigue life distributions are shown to correlate well with the experimental results. Moreover, excellent correlation of theory and experiment is obtained for an average fatigue life that is based on the 63.2% probability of failure.

  9. Predicting pedestrian flow: a methodology and a proof of concept based on real-life data.

    PubMed

    Davidich, Maria; Köster, Gerta

    2013-01-01

    Building a reliable predictive model of pedestrian motion is very challenging: Ideally, such models should be based on observations made in both controlled experiments and in real-world environments. De facto, models are rarely based on real-world observations due to the lack of available data; instead, they are largely based on intuition and, at best, literature values and laboratory experiments. Such an approach is insufficient for reliable simulations of complex real-life scenarios: For instance, our analysis of pedestrian motion under natural conditions at a major German railway station reveals that the values for free-flow velocities and the flow-density relationship differ significantly from widely used literature values. It is thus necessary to calibrate and validate the model against relevant real-life data to make it capable of reproducing and predicting real-life scenarios. In this work we aim at constructing such realistic pedestrian stream simulation. Based on the analysis of real-life data, we present a methodology that identifies key parameters and interdependencies that enable us to properly calibrate the model. The success of the approach is demonstrated for a benchmark model, a cellular automaton. We show that the proposed approach significantly improves the reliability of the simulation and hence the potential prediction accuracy. The simulation is validated by comparing the local density evolution of the measured data to that of the simulated data. We find that for our model the most sensitive parameters are: the source-target distribution of the pedestrian trajectories, the schedule of pedestrian appearances in the scenario and the mean free-flow velocity. Our results emphasize the need for real-life data extraction and analysis to enable predictive simulations. PMID:24386186

  10. Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Local Strain Energy for Healed Copper Film by Laser Irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Feng-Zhu; Shang, De-Guang; Ren, Chong-Gang; Sun, Yu-Juan

    2016-04-01

    Changes of total cyclic strain energy at the notch for copper film specimen were analyzed before and after laser irradiation treatment. The results showed that laser irradiation can increase total cyclic strain energy and the effect of increase is more evident for the damaged copper specimen. Based on the damage-healing mechanism, an enhancement parameter and a healing parameter were defined by the local cyclic strain energy. A new model based on local strain energy was proposed to predict residual fatigue life for the damaged copper film specimen after laser irradiation. The predicted results by the proposed model agree well with the experimental lives.

  11. Coating Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesbitt, J. A.; Gedwill, M. A.

    1984-01-01

    Hot-section gas-turbine components typically require some form of coating for oxidation and corrosion protection. Efficient use of coatings requires reliable and accurate predictions of the protective life of the coating. Currently engine inspections and component replacements are often made on a conservative basis. As a result, there is a constant need to improve and develop the life-prediction capability of metallic coatings for use in various service environments. The purpose of this present work is aimed at developing of an improved methodology for predicting metallic coating lives in an oxidizing environment and in a corrosive environment.

  12. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  13. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  14. Application of an Energy-Based Life Prediction Model to Bithermal and Thermomechanical Fatigue

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radhakrishnan, V. M.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh; Halford, Gary R.

    1994-01-01

    The inelastic hysteresis energy applied to the material in a cycle is used as the basis for predicting nonisothermal fatigue life of a wrought cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188, from isothermal fatigue data. Damage functions that account for hold-time effects and time-dependent environmental phenomena such as oxidation and hot corrosion are proposed in terms of the inelastic hysteresis energy per cycle. The proposed damage functions are used to predict the bithermal and thermomechanical fatigue lives of Haynes 188 between 316 and 760 C from isothermal fatigue data. Predicted fatigue lives of all but two of the nonisothermal tests are within a factor of 1.5 of the experimentally observed lives.

  15. Predicting service life margins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egan, G. F.

    1971-01-01

    Margins are developed for equipment susceptible to malfunction due to excessive time or operation cycles, and for identifying limited life equipment so monitoring and replacing is accomplished before hardware failure. Method applies to hardware where design service is established and where reasonable expected usage prediction is made.

  16. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    PubMed

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the PMID:24369656

  17. Coating life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesbitt, James A.; Gedwill, Michael A.

    1985-01-01

    The investigation combines both experimental studies and numerical modeling to predict coating life in an oxidizing environment. The experimental work provides both input to and verification of two numerical models. The coatings being examined are an aluminide coating on Udimet 700 (U-700), a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) Ni-18Co-17Cr-24Al-0.2Y overlay coating also on U- 700, and bulk deposits of the LPPS NiCoCrAlY coating.

  18. Airframe life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sendeckyj, G. P.

    1992-01-01

    The required research to develop improved life prediction methods for metallic and composite structures under severe thermomechanical loading must include the development of a verified thermoinelastic fracture criterion. There has been much work in this area with many fracture criteria being proposed. Due to the lack of adequate experimental verification none of them are widely accepted. Research must also be performed to develop and implement improved thermoinelasticity theories that properly model large temperature excursions and high temperature gradient. This research is required to provide confidence in the simpler theories currently used for thermoinelastic analysis. Finally, experimental data is needed to define the behavior of and damage accumulation process in thermoinelastic materials. Special emphasis must be placed on understanding failure mode transitions under thermomechanical loading conditions.

  19. Strainrange partitioning - A total strain range version. [for creep fatigue life prediction by summing inelastic and elastic strain-range-life relations for two Ni base superalloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Saltsman, J. F.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures are presented for expressing the Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) method for creep fatigue life prediction in terms of total strain range. Inelastic and elastic strain-range - life relations are summed to give total strain-range - life relations. The life components due to inelastic strains are dealt with using conventional SRP procedures while the life components due to elastic strains are expressed as families of time-dependent terms for each type of SRP cycle. Cyclic constitutive material behavior plays an important role in establishing the elastic strain-range life relations as well as the partitioning of the inelastic strains. To apply the approach, however, it is not necessary to have to determine the magnitude of the inelastic strain range. The total strain SRP approach is evaluated and verified using two nickel base superalloys, AF2-1DA and Rene 95. Excellent agreement is demonstrated between observed and predicted cyclic lifetimes with 70 to 80 percent of the predicted lives falling within factors of two of the observed lives. The total strain-range SRP approach should be of considerable practical value to designers who are faced with creep-fatigue problems for which the inelastic strains cannot be calculated with sufficient accuracy to make reliable life predictions by the conventional inelastic strain range SRP approach.

  20. Multi-scale mechanism based life prediction of polymer matrix composites for high temperature airframe applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upadhyaya, Priyank

    A multi-scale mechanism-based life prediction model is developed for high-temperature polymer matrix composites (HTPMC) for high temperature airframe applications. In the first part of this dissertation the effect of Cloisite 20A (C20A) nano-clay compounding on the thermo-oxidative weight loss and the residual stresses due to thermal oxidation for a thermoset polymer bismaleimide (BMI) are investigated. A three-dimensional (3-D) micro-mechanics based finite element analysis (FEA) was conducted to investigate the residual stresses due to thermal oxidation using an in-house FEA code (NOVA-3D). In the second part of this dissertation, a novel numerical-experimental methodology is outlined to determine cohesive stress and damage evolution parameters for pristine as well as isothermally aged (in air) polymer matrix composites. A rate-dependent viscoelastic cohesive layer model was implemented in an in-house FEA code to simulate the delamination initiation and propagation in unidirectional polymer composites before and after aging. Double cantilever beam (DCB) experiments were conducted (at UT-Dallas) on both pristine and isothermally aged IM-7/BMI composite specimens to determine the model parameters. The J-Integral based approach was adapted to extract cohesive stresses near the crack tip. Once the damage parameters had been characterized, the test-bed FEA code employed a micromechanics based viscoelastic cohesive layer model to numerically simulate the DCB experiment. FEA simulation accurately captures the macro-scale behavior (load-displacement history) simultaneously with the micro-scale behavior (crack-growth history).

  1. Inclusions Size-based Fatigue Life Prediction Model of NiTi Alloy for Biomedical Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urbano, Marco Fabrizio; Cadelli, Andrea; Sczerzenie, Frank; Luccarelli, Pietro; Beretta, Stefano; Coda, Alberto

    2015-06-01

    Current standards consider the size and distribution of inclusions in semi-finished material, but do not place requirements on final biomedical devices made of NiTi shape memory alloys. In this paper, we analyze this by comparing the fatigue performances of NiTi superelastic wires obtained by different processes through a simple bilinear model of fatigue response in terms of strain life. The fracture surfaces of failed wires are analyzed through SEM microscopy and data regarding the presence of particles, and their morphology is recorded and analyzed using Type-I extreme value distribution. The results show a strong correlation between the fatigue limit of wires (in terms of strain) and the predicted extreme values of inclusions at fracture origin. Then, following the concept of treating the inclusions as `small cracks,' a simple relationship between fatigue limit strain range and inclusion size is proposed based on ΔKth data from the literature. The model is compared with the fatigue data obtained from the tested wires.

  2. Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Analysis of P91 Steel Based on Applied Mechanical Work Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, D. M.; Shen, M.-H. H.; Wang, D. X.; Ren, J. X.

    2015-01-01

    A creep-fatigue (CF) life prediction model and its simplified expression were developed based on the applied mechanical work density (AMWD). The foundation of this model was an integration of N- S curve. Comparisons of the model predicted fatigue lifetimes with the experimental data of load-controlled CF tests on P91 base metal and welded metal at 848 K from the reference were made and apparently illustrated that the model predictions were in a good agreement with the experimental fatigue lifetimes. In addition, the curve of the numbers of cycles to failure versus AMWD at the associated probability was deduced. A reliability model was constructed by combining the curve and the simplified life prediction model.

  3. A high temperature fatigue life prediction computer code based on the total strain version of StrainRange Partitioning (SRP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.; Saltsman, James F.

    1993-01-01

    A recently developed high-temperature fatigue life prediction computer code is presented and an example of its usage given. The code discussed is based on the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP). Included in this code are procedures for characterizing the creep-fatigue durability behavior of an alloy according to TS-SRP guidelines and predicting cyclic life for complex cycle types for both isothermal and thermomechanical conditions. A reasonably extensive materials properties database is included with the code.

  4. Developing a support vector machine based QSPR model for prediction of half-life of some herbicides.

    PubMed

    Samghani, Kobra; HosseinFatemi, Mohammad

    2016-07-01

    The half-life (t1/2) of 58 herbicides were modeled by quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) based molecular structure descriptors. After calculation and the screening of a large number of molecular descriptors, the most relevant those ones selected by stepwise multiple linear regression were used for developing linear and nonlinear models which developed by using multiple linear regression and support vector machine, respectively. Comparison between statistical parameters of linear and nonlinear models indicates the suitability of SVM over MLR model for predicting the half-life of herbicides. The statistical parameters of R(2) and standard error for training set of SVM model were; 0.96 and 0.087, respectively, and were 0.93 and 0.092 for the test set. The SVM model was evaluated by leave one out cross validation test, which its result indicates the robustness and predictability of the model. The established SVM model was used for predicting the half-life of other herbicides that are located in the applicability domain of model that were determined via leverage approach. The results of this study indicate that the relationship among selected molecular descriptors and herbicide's half-life is non-linear. These results emphases that the process of degradation of herbicides in the environment is very complex and can be affected by various environmental and structural features, therefore simple linear model cannot be able to successfully predict it. PMID:26970881

  5. Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

    2003-01-01

    The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

  6. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-07-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  7. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-05-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  8. LCF behavior and life prediction method of a single crystal nickel-based superalloy at high temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhihua; Yu, Huichen; Dong, Chengli

    2015-12-01

    Low cycle fatigue tests were conducted on the single crystal nickel-based superalloy, DD6, with different crystallographic orientations (i.e., [001], [011], and [111]) and strain dwell types (i.e., tensile, compressive, and balanced types) at a certain high temperature. Given the material anisotropy and mean stress, both orientation factor and stress range were introduced to the Smith,Watson, and Topper (SWT) stress model to predict the fatigue life. Experimental results indicated that the fatigue properties of DD6 depend on both crystallographic orientation and loading types. The fatigue life of the tensile, compressive, and balanced strain dwell tests are shorter than those of continuous cycling tests without strain dwell because of the important creep effect. The predicted results of the proposed modified SWT stress method agree well with the experimental data.

  9. A Microstructure-Based Time-Dependent Crack Growth Model for Life and Reliability Prediction of Turbopropulsion Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Kwai S.; Enright, Michael P.; Moody, Jonathan; Fitch, Simeon H. K.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this investigation was to develop an innovative methodology for life and reliability prediction of hot-section components in advanced turbopropulsion systems. A set of generic microstructure-based time-dependent crack growth (TDCG) models was developed and used to assess the sources of material variability due to microstructure and material parameters such as grain size, activation energy, and crack growth threshold for TDCG. A comparison of model predictions and experimental data obtained in air and in vacuum suggests that oxidation is responsible for higher crack growth rates at high temperatures, low frequencies, and long dwell times, but oxidation can also induce higher crack growth thresholds (Δ K th or K th) under certain conditions. Using the enhanced risk analysis tool and material constants calibrated to IN 718 data, the effect of TDCG on the risk of fracture in turboengine components was demonstrated for a generic rotor design and a realistic mission profile using the DARWIN® probabilistic life-prediction code. The results of this investigation confirmed that TDCG and cycle-dependent crack growth in IN 718 can be treated by a simple summation of the crack increments over a mission. For the temperatures considered, TDCG in IN 718 can be considered as a K-controlled or a diffusion-controlled oxidation-induced degradation process. This methodology provides a pathway for evaluating microstructural effects on multiple damage modes in hot-section components.

  10. An Improved Wavelet Packet-Chaos Model for Life Prediction of Space Relays Based on Volterra Series

    PubMed Central

    Li, Lingling; Han, Ye; Chen, Wenyuan; Lv, Congmin; Sun, Dongwang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an improved algorithm of wavelet packet-chaos model for life prediction of space relays based on volterra series is proposed. In the proposed method, the high and low frequency time sequence components of performance parameters are obtained by employing the improved wavelet packet transform to decompose the performance parameters of the relay into multiple scales. Then the optimization algorithm of parameters in volterra series is improved, and is used to construct a chaotic forecasting model for the high and low frequency time sequence components gained by the wavelet packet transform. At last, the chaotic forecasting results of the high and low frequency components are combined by taking the wavelet packet reconstruction approach, so as to predict the lifetime of the studied space relay. The algorithm can predict the life curve of the relay accurately and reflect the characteristics of the relay performance with sufficient accuracy. The proposed method is validated via a case study of a space relay. PMID:27355578

  11. A co-training-based approach for prediction of remaining useful life utilizing both failure and suspension data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Kim, Taejin; Wang, Pingfeng

    2015-10-01

    Traditional data-driven prognostics often requires some amount of failure data for the offline training in order to achieve good accuracy for the online prediction. Failure data refer to condition monitoring data collected from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till the occurrence of its failure. However, in many engineered systems, failure data are fairly expensive and time-consuming to obtain while suspension data are readily available. Suspension data refer to condition monitoring data acquired from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till planned inspection or maintenance when the system is taken out of service. In such cases, it becomes essentially critical to utilize suspension data which may carry rich information regarding the degradation trend and help achieve more accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. To this end, this paper proposes a co-training-based data-driven prognostic approach, denoted by COPROG, which uses two data-driven algorithms with each predicting RULs of suspension units for the other. After a suspension unit is chosen and its RUL is predicted by an individual algorithm, it becomes a virtual failure unit that is added to the training data set of the other individual algorithm. Results obtained from two case studies suggest that COPROG gives more accurate RUL prediction, as compared to any individual algorithm with no use of suspension data, and that COPROG can effectively exploit suspension data to improve the prognostic accuracy.

  12. Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

    2016-08-01

    Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

  13. Prediction of the Maximum Temperature for Life Based on the Stability of Metabolites to Decomposition in Water

    PubMed Central

    Bains, William; Xiao, Yao; Yu, Changyong

    2015-01-01

    The components of life must survive in a cell long enough to perform their function in that cell. Because the rate of attack by water increases with temperature, we can, in principle, predict a maximum temperature above which an active terrestrial metabolism cannot function by analysis of the decomposition rates of the components of life, and comparison of those rates with the metabolites’ minimum metabolic half-lives. The present study is a first step in this direction, providing an analytical framework and method, and analyzing the stability of 63 small molecule metabolites based on literature data. Assuming that attack by water follows a first order rate equation, we extracted decomposition rate constants from literature data and estimated their statistical reliability. The resulting rate equations were then used to give a measure of confidence in the half-life of the metabolite concerned at different temperatures. There is little reliable data on metabolite decomposition or hydrolysis rates in the literature, the data is mostly confined to a small number of classes of chemicals, and the data available are sometimes mutually contradictory because of varying reaction conditions. However, a preliminary analysis suggests that terrestrial biochemistry is limited to environments below ~150–180 °C. We comment briefly on why pressure is likely to have a small effect on this. PMID:25821932

  14. Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1997-01-01

    The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

  15. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2013-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

  16. Predicting the remaining service life of concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Clifton, J.F.

    1991-11-01

    Nuclear power plants are providing, currently, about 17 percent of the U.S. electricity and many of these plants are approaching their licensed life of 40 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are carrying out a program to develop a methodology for assessing the remaining safe-life of the concrete components and structures in nuclear power plants. This program has the overall objective of identifying potential structural safety issues, as well as acceptance criteria, for use in evaluations of nuclear power plants for continued service. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is contributing to this program by identifying and analyzing methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service concrete materials. This report examines the basis for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials of nuclear power facilities. Methods for predicting the service life of new and in-service concrete materials are analyzed. These methods include (1) estimates based on experience, (2) comparison of performance, (3) accelerated testing, (4) stochastic methods, and (5) mathematical modeling. New approaches for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials are proposed and recommendations for their further development given. Degradation processes are discussed based on considerations of their mechanisms, likelihood of occurrence, manifestations, and detection. They include corrosion, sulfate attack, alkali-aggregate reactions, frost attack, leaching, radiation, salt crystallization, and microbiological attack.

  17. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Hartle, M. S.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes work performed to determine the predominat modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consisted of a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. The work was divided into 3 technical tasks. The primary failure mode to be addressed was loss of the zirconia layer through spalling. Experiments showed that oxidation of the bond coat is a significant contributor to coating failure. It was evident from the test results that the species of oxide scale initially formed on the bond coat plays a role in coating degradation and failure. It was also shown that elevated temperature creep of the bond coat plays a role in coating failure. An empirical model was developed for predicting the test life of specimens with selected coating, specimen, and test condition variations. In the second task, a coating life prediction model was developed based on the data from Task 1 experiments, results from thermomechanical experiments performed as part of Task 2, and finite element analyses of the TBC system during thermal cycles. The third and final task attempted to verify the validity of the model developed in Task 2. This was done by using the model to predict the test lives of several coating variations and specimen geometries, then comparing these predicted lives to experimentally determined test lives. It was found that the model correctly predicts trends, but that additional refinement is needed to accurately predict coating life.

  18. Life prediction and constitutive behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.

    1983-01-01

    One of the primary drivers that prompted the initiation of the hot section technology (HOST) program was the recognized need for improved cyclic durability of costly hot section components. All too frequently, fatigue in one form or another was directly responsible for the less than desired durability, and prospects for the future weren't going to improve unless a significant effort was mounted to increase our knowledge and understanding of the elements governing cyclic crack initiation and propagation lifetime. Certainly one of the important factors is the ability to perform accurate structural stress-strain analyses on a routine basis to determine the magnitudes of the localized stresses and strains since it is these localized conditions that govern the initiation and crack growth processes. Developing the ability to more accurately predict crack initiation lifetimes and cyclic crack growth rates for the complex loading conditions found in turbine engine hot sections is of course the ultimate goal of the life prediction research efforts. It has been found convenient to divide the research efforts into those dealing with nominally isotropic and anisotropic alloys; the latter for application to directionally solidified and single crystal turbine blades.

  19. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  20. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J.; Sheffler, K.

    1984-01-01

    The objective of this program is to develop an integrated life prediction model accounting for all potential life-limiting Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) degradation and failure modes including spallation resulting from cyclic thermal stress, oxidative degradation, hot corrosion, erosion, and foreign object damage (FOD). The mechanisms and relative importance of the various degradation and failure modes will be determined, and the methodology to predict predominant mode failure life in turbine airfoil application will be developed and verified. An empirically based correlative model relating coating life to parametrically expressed driving forces such as temperature and stress will be employed. The two-layer TBC system being investigated, designated PWA264, currently is in commercial aircraft revenue service. It consists of an inner low pressure chamber plasma-sprayed NiCoCrAlY metallic bond coat underlayer (4 to 6 mils) and an outer air plasma-sprayed 7 w/o Y2O3-ZrO2 (8 to 12 mils) ceramic top layer.

  1. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J. T.

    1986-01-01

    A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

  2. Life prediction: A case for multidisciplinary research

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, R.P.

    1997-12-01

    Concerns with aging infrastructure worldwide and with the life-cycle costs and management of engineered systems have placed increased emphasis on the development of methods for life prediction. To be effective as true predictors of future performance (i.e., to provide accurate estimates beyond the range employed in the development of supporting data), such methods must be built upon mechanistic models that capture the functional dependence on all of the key external and internal variables. The development of these methods argues strongly for multidisciplinary research that integrates mechanistic understanding with probability analysis. In this paper, a mechanistically based probability approach to life prediction (versus the more traditional statistically based parametric approach) and the processes for model development are outlined to provide a framework for discussion. The use of a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to develop mechanistic understanding and to model material response is illustrated through examples on crack growth in a high-strength steel. The need for multidisciplinary research that broadens the perspective from testing to testing and materials is discussed.

  3. Life prediction systems for critical rotating components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, Susan E.

    1993-01-01

    With the advent of advanced materials in rotating gas turbine engine components, the methodologies for life prediction of these parts must also increase in sophistication and capability. Pratt & Whitney's view of generic requirements for composite component life prediction systems are presented, efforts underway to develop these systems are discussed, and industry participation in key areas requiring development is solicited.

  4. A crystal plasticity based methodology for modeling fatigue crack initiation and estimating material coefficients to predict fatigue crack initiation life at micro, nano and macro scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voothaluru, Rohit

    Fatigue failure is a dominant mechanism that governs the failure of components and structures in many engineering applications. In conventional engineering applications due to the design specifications, a significant proportion of the fatigue life is spent in the crack initiation phase. In spite of the large number of works addressing fatigue life modeling, the problem of modeling crack initiation life still remains a major challenge. In this work, a novel computational methodology based upon crystal plasticity formulations has been developed to predict crack initiation life at macro, micro and nano length scales. The crystal plasticity based constitutive model has been employed to model the micromechanical deformation and damage accumulation under cyclic loading in polycrystalline metals. This work provides a first of its kind, fundamental basis for employing crystal plasticity formulations for evaluating a quantifiable estimate of fatigue crack initiation life. A semi-empirical energy based fatigue crack initiation criterion s employed to allow for accurate modeling of the underlying microstructural phenomenon leading to the initiation of cracks at different material length scales. The results of the fatigue crack initiation life prediction in case of polycrystalline metals such as Copper and Nickel demonstrated that the crack initiation life prediction using the proposed methodology yielded an improvement of more than 30% in comparison to the existing continuum methodologies for fatigue crack initiation prediction and more than 80% improvement compared to the existing analytical models. The computational methodology developed in this work also provides a first of its kind technique to evaluate the fatigue crack initiation coefficient in the form of energy dissipation coefficient that can be used at varying length scales. The methodology and the computational framework proposed in this work, are developed such that experimental inputs are used to improve

  5. Chemiluminescent prediction of service life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hassell, J. A.; Mendenhall, G. D.; Nathan, R. A.

    1976-01-01

    Technique can be used to predict polymer degradation under actual expected-use conditions, without imposing artificial conditions. Smooth or linear correlations are obtained between chemiluminescence and physical properties of purified polymer gums.

  6. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meier, Susan M.; Nissley, David M.; Sheffler, Keith D.; Cruse, Thomas A.

    1991-01-01

    A thermal barrier coated (TBC) turbine component design system, including an accurate TBC life prediction model, is needed to realize the full potential of available TBC engine performance and/or durability benefits. The objective of this work, which was sponsored in part by NASA, was to generate a life prediction model for electron beam - physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) zirconia TBC. Specific results include EB-PVD zirconia mechanical and physical properties, coating adherence strength measurements, interfacial oxide growth characteristics, quantitative cyclic thermal spallation life data, and a spallation life model.

  7. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  8. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Cook, T. S.; Kim, K. S.

    1986-01-01

    This is the second annual report of the first 3-year phase of a 2-phase, 5-year program. The objectives of the first phase are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. Task I was to evaluate TBC failure mechanisms. Both bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep have been identified as contributors to TBC failure. Key property determinations have also been made for the bond coat and the top coat, including tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus, and coefficient of thermal expansion. Task II is to develop TBC life prediction models for the predominant failure modes. These models will be developed based on the results of thermmechanical experiments and finite element analysis. The thermomechanical experiments have been defined and testing initiated. Finite element models have also been developed to handle TBCs and are being utilized to evaluate different TBC failure regimes.

  9. Lithium-ion battery state of health monitoring and remaining useful life prediction based on support vector regression-particle filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Hancheng; Jin, Xiaoning; Lou, Yangbing; Wang, Changhong

    2014-12-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are used as the main power source in many electronic and electrical devices. In particular, with the growth in battery-powered electric vehicle development, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle systems. In order to provide timely maintenance and replacement of battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable and accurate battery health diagnostic that takes a prognostic approach. Therefore, this paper focuses on two main methods to determine a battery's health: (1) Battery State-of-Health (SOH) monitoring and (2) Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Both of these are calculated by using a filter algorithm known as the Support Vector Regression-Particle Filter (SVR-PF). Models for battery SOH monitoring based on SVR-PF are developed with novel capacity degradation parameters introduced to determine battery health in real time. Moreover, the RUL prediction model is proposed, which is able to provide the RUL value and update the RUL probability distribution to the End-of-Life cycle. Results for both methods are presented, showing that the proposed SOH monitoring and RUL prediction methods have good performance and that the SVR-PF has better monitoring and prediction capability than the standard particle filter (PF).

  10. Benchmark notch test for life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Domas, P. A.; Sharpe, W. N.; Ward, M.; Yau, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The laser Interferometric Strain Displacement Gage (ISDG) was used to measure local strains in notched Inconel 718 test bars subjected to six different load histories at 649 C (1200 F) and including effects of tensile and compressive hold periods. The measurements were compared to simplified Neuber notch analysis predictions of notch root stress and strain. The actual strains incurred at the root of a discontinuity in cyclically loaded test samples subjected to inelastic deformation at high temperature where creep deformations readily occur were determined. The steady state cyclic, stress-strain response at the root of the discontinuity was analyzed. Flat, double notched uniaxially loaded fatigue specimens manufactured from the nickel base, superalloy Inconel 718 were used. The ISDG was used to obtain cycle by cycle recordings of notch root strain during continuous and hold time cycling at 649 C. Comparisons to Neuber and finite element model analyses were made. The results obtained provide a benchmark data set in high technology design where notch fatigue life is the predominant component service life limitation.

  11. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.

    1984-01-01

    In order to fully exploit thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) on turbine components and achieve the maximum performance benefit, the knowledge and understanding of TBC failure mechanisms must be increased and the means to predict coating life developed. The proposed program will determine the predominant modes of TBC system degradation and then develop and verify life prediction models accounting for those degradation modes. The successful completion of the program will have dual benefits: the ability to take advantage of the performance benefits offered by TBCs, and a sounder basis for making future improvements in coating behavior.

  12. SSME main combustion chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, R. T.; Fryk, E. E.; Newell, J. F.

    1983-01-01

    Typically, low cycle fatigue life is a function of the cyclic strain range, the material properties, and the operating temperature. The reusable life is normally defined by the number of strain cycles that can be accrued before severe material degradation occurs. Reusable life is normally signified by the initiation or propagation of surface cracks. Hot-fire testing of channel wall combustors has shown significant mid-channel wall thinning or deformation during accrued cyclic testing. This phenomenon is termed cyclic-creep and appears to be significantly accelerated at elevated surface temperatures. This failure mode was analytically modelled. The cyclic life of the baseline SSME-MCC based on measured calorimeter heat transfer data, and the life sensitivity of local hot spots caused by injector effects were determined. Four life enhanced designs were assessed.

  13. A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

  14. Life prediction technologies for aeronautical propulsion systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1990-01-01

    Fatigue and fracture problems continue to occur in aeronautical gas turbine engines. Components whose useful life is limited by these failure modes include turbine hot-section blades, vanes, and disks. Safety considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that noncatastrophic failures occur as infrequently as possible. Therefore, the decision in design is making the tradeoff between engine performance and durability. LeRC has contributed to the aeropropulsion industry in the area of life prediction technology for over 30 years, developing creep and fatigue life prediction methodologies for hot-section materials. At the present time, emphasis is being placed on the development of methods capable of handling both thermal and mechanical fatigue under severe environments. Recent accomplishments include the development of more accurate creep-fatigue life prediction methods such as the total strain version of LeRC's strain-range partitioning (SRP) and the HOST-developed cyclic damage accumulation (CDA) model. Other examples include the development of a more accurate cumulative fatigue damage rule - the double damage curve approach (DDCA), which provides greatly improved accuracy in comparison with usual cumulative fatigue design rules. Other accomplishments in the area of high-temperature fatigue crack growth may also be mentioned. Finally, we are looking to the future and are beginning to do research on the advanced methods which will be required for development of advanced materials and propulsion systems over the next 10-20 years.

  15. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J. T.; Sheffler, K. D.

    1986-01-01

    The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

  16. Multiscale Fatigue Life Prediction for Composite Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Yarrington, Phillip W.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2012-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction capabilities have been incorporated into the HyperSizer Composite Analysis and Structural Sizing Software. The fatigue damage model is introduced at the fiber/matrix constituent scale through HyperSizer s coupling with NASA s MAC/GMC micromechanics software. This enables prediction of the micro scale damage progression throughout stiffened and sandwich panels as a function of cycles leading ultimately to simulated panel failure. The fatigue model implementation uses a cycle jumping technique such that, rather than applying a specified number of additional cycles, a specified local damage increment is specified and the number of additional cycles to reach this damage increment is calculated. In this way, the effect of stress redistribution due to damage-induced stiffness change is captured, but the fatigue simulations remain computationally efficient. The model is compared to experimental fatigue life data for two composite facesheet/foam core sandwich panels, demonstrating very good agreement.

  17. Life prediction of elastomeric and thermoplastic components

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, A.

    1994-12-31

    Life prediction tests for polymeric materials have been in use for a considerable period of time. However there are still fundamental problems with their usage and interpretation in terms of engineering performance. In particular, it is not yet in general possible to relate the rate of change of physical properties that arise as a consequence of chemical aging to the rate of change in the underlying chemical structure or morphology. Also, different physical properties may change at different rates and these materials are generally non-linear. This renders accelerated life prediction testing potentially unreliable. This paper reviews this general problem area and discusses advances which need to be made with respect to the roles of the permeation of fluids, mechanical fatigue crack growth and time dependent changes. Illustrative examples are discussed of both thermoplastics and crosslinked elastomers. Finally, a general scheme is discussed for future research in this area, related to the development of interactive numerical modelling.

  18. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

    2000-01-01

    Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

  19. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheffler, K. D.; Demasi, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

  20. Quality of life for patients with major depression in Taiwan:A model-based study of predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Chung, Lyinn; Pan, Ay-Woan; Hsiung, Ping-Chuan

    2009-07-30

    The 'quality of life' (QOL) for patients suffering from depression is affected by four factors: stigma, social support, mastery and depressive symptoms. The purpose of this study was to develop and empirically validate an appropriate path model for the QOL of patients suffering from major depression. We recruited a total of 237 patients suffering from depression from the outpatient psychiatry department of a university-affiliated hospital in northern Taiwan. The sample was predominantly female (74.3%), had at least a high school level of education (79.7%), had a mean age of 46.95 years, and were living with their families (87.3%). Path analysis was used to identify the 'best fit' model for the QOL of the patients in four domains: physical, psychological, social and environmental. The key determinant for all QOL domains is found to be the intensity of the depressive symptoms, with social support also affecting QOL both directly and indirectly, whilst stigma is found to have an indirect effect on QOL mediated by the intensity of the depressive symptoms, mastery and social support. We conclude that more effective improvements in all aspects of QOL for patients suffering from depression could be achieved by the provision of comprehensive intervention programs aimed at reducing stigma, as well as placing greater emphasis on a reduction in the patients' depressive symptoms, and enhancements to their social support and mastery. PMID:19467715

  1. Predictive Service Life Tests for Roofing Membranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, David M.; Cash, Carl G.; Davies, Arthur G.

    2002-09-01

    The average service life of roofing membranes used in low-slope applications on U.S. Army buildings is estimated to be considerably shorter than the industry-presumed 20-year design life, even when installers carefully adhere to the latest guide specifications. This problem is due in large part to market-driven product development cycles, which do not include time for long-term field testing. To reduce delivery costs, contractors may provide untested, interior membranes in place of ones proven satisfactory in long-term service. Federal procurement regulations require that roofing systems and components be selected according to desired properties and generic type, not brand name. The problem is that a material certified to have satisfactory properties at installation time will not necessarily retain those properties in service. The overall objective of this research is to develop a testing program that can be executed in a matter of weeks to adequately predict a membrane's long-term performance in service. This report details accelerated aging tests of 12 popular membrane materials in the laboratory, and describes outdoor experiment stations set up for long-term exposure tests of those same membranes. The laboratory results will later be correlated with the outdoor test results to develop performance models and predictive service life tests.

  2. A. Palmgren Revisited: A Basis for Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    1997-01-01

    Bearing technology, as well as the bearing industry, began to develop with the invention of the bicycle in the 1850's. At the same time, high-quality steel was made possible by the Bessemer process. In 1881, H. Hertz published his contact stress analysis. By 1902, R. Stribeck had published his work based on Hertz theory to calculate the maximum load of a radially loaded ball bearing. By 1920, all of the rolling bearing types used today were being manufactured. AISI 52100 bearing steel became the material of choice for these bearings. Beginning in 1918, engineers directed their attention to predicting the lives of these bearings. In 1924, A. Palmgren published a paper outlining his approach to bearing life prediction. This paper was the basis for the Lundberg-Palmgren life theory published in 1947. A critical review of the 1924 Palmgren paper is presented here together with a discussion of its effect on bearing life prediction.

  3. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  4. Theoretical Foundation for Mechanical Products Service Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovodov, V. V.; Valentov, A. V.; Lafetova, T. V.; Basalaev, M. N.

    2016-04-01

    The article presents theoretical foundations for prediction of service life of mechanical products, based on the fatigue theory and fatigue limit. Ultimate amplitude and ultimate stress diagrams are presented. Wohler curve, characterizing material durability, is constructed on the results of the tests.

  5. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P.; Diener, Ed

    2016-01-01

    Background Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. Methods To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as a predictor of relationship, adjustment, self worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilized multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Results Early adolescent positive affect predicted less relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers), healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. Conclusions The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. PMID:27075545

  6. Life prediction and constitutive behavior: Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.

    1982-01-01

    The evolution of programs to investigate high temperature consititutive behavior and develop cyclic life prediction methods is reviewed. Contracts granted for developing and verifying workable engineering methods for the calculation, in advance of service, of the local stress-strain response at the critical life governing location in typical hot section components as well as the resultant cyclic crack initiation and crack growth lifetimes are listed. The Langley fatigue facility is being upgraded to include: (1) a servocontrolled testing machine for high temperature crack growth; (2) three servocontrolled tension/torsion machines for biaxial studies; (3) a HOST/satellite computer for data acquisition, processing, storage, and retrieval; and (4) HCV/LCF machines for cumulative damage studies.

  7. Fatigue life prediction of bonded primary joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knauss, J. F.

    1979-01-01

    The validation of a proposed fatigue life prediction methodology was sought through the use of aluminum butt and scarf joint and graphite/epoxy butt joint specimens in a constant amplitude fatigue environment. The structural properties of the HYSOL 9313 adhesive system were obtained by mechanical test of molded heat adhesive specimens. Aluminum contoured double cantilever beam specimens were used to generate crack velocity versus stress intensity factor data. The specific objectives were: (1) to ascertain the feasibility of predicting fatigue failure of an adhesive in a primary bonded composite structure by incorporating linear elastic crack growth behavior; and (2) to ascertain if acoustic emission and/or compliance measurement techniques can be used to detect flaws.

  8. Discrete statistical model of fatigue crack growth in a Ni-base superalloy, capable of life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyd-Lee, Ashley; King, Julia

    1992-07-01

    A discrete statistical model of fatigue crack growth in a nickel base superalloy Waspaloy, which is quantitative from the start of the short crack regime to failure, is presented. Instantaneous crack growth rate distributions and persistence of arrest distributions are used to compute fatigue lives and worst case scenarios without extrapolation. The basis of the model is non-material specific, it provides an improved method of analyzing crack growth rate data. For Waspaloy, the model shows the importance of good bulk fatigue crack growth resistance to resist early short fatigue crack growth and the importance of maximizing crack arrest both by the presence of a proportion of small grains and by maximizing grain boundary corrugation.

  9. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

  10. Thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, and Creep: Part II. Life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neu, R. W.; Sehitoglu, Huseyin

    1989-09-01

    A life prediction model is developed for crack nucleation and early crack growth based on fatigue, environment (oxidation), and creep damage. The model handles different strain-temperature phasings (i.e., in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue, isothermal fatigue, and others, including nonproportional phasings). Fatigue life predictions compare favorably with experiments in 1070 steel for a wide range of test conditions and strain-temperature phasings. An oxide growth (oxide damage) model is based on the repeated microrupture process of oxide observed from microscopic measurements. A creep damage expression, which is stress-based, is coupled with a unified constitutive equation. A set of interrupted tests was performed to provide valuable damage progression information. Tests were performed in air and in helium atmospheres to isolate creep damage from oxidation damage.

  11. Practical theories for service life prediction of critical aerospace structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Monaghan, Richard C.; Jackson, Raymond H.

    1992-01-01

    A new second-order theory was developed for predicting the service lives of aerospace structural components. The predictions based on this new theory were compared with those based on the Ko first-order theory and the classical theory of service life predictions. The new theory gives very accurate service life predictions. An equivalent constant-amplitude stress cycle method was proposed for representing the random load spectrum for crack growth calculations. This method predicts the most conservative service life. The proposed use of minimum detectable crack size, instead of proof load established crack size as an initial crack size for crack growth calculations, could give a more realistic service life.

  12. Predicting Later-Life Outcomes of Early-Life Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: In utero exposure of the fetus to a stressor can lead to disease in later life. Epigenetic mechanisms are likely mediators of later-life expression of early-life events.Objectives: We examined the current state of understanding of later-life diseases resulting from ea...

  13. Space shuttle nonmetallic materials age life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendenhall, G. D.; Hassell, J. A.; Nathan, R. A.

    1975-01-01

    The chemiluminescence from samples of polybutadiene, Viton, Teflon, Silicone, PL 731 Adhesive, and SP 296 Boron-Epoxy composite was measured at temperatures from 25 to 150 C. Excellent correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and temperature. These correlations serve to validate accelerated aging tests (at elevated temperatures) designed to predict service life at lower temperatures. In most cases, smooth or linear correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and physical properties of purified polymer gums, including the tensile strength, viscosity, and loss tangent. The latter is a complex function of certain polymer properties. Data were obtained with far greater ease by the chemiluminescence technique than by the conventional methods of study. The chemiluminescence from the Teflon (Halon) samples was discovered to arise from trace amounts of impurities, which were undetectable by conventional, destructive analysis of the sample.

  14. Toughened ceramics life prediction. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Salem, J.A.; Choi, S.R.; Pawlik, R.J.

    1998-02-01

    The objective of this research was to understand the room temperature and high temperature behavior of brittle materials such as in situ toughened ceramics, glasses and intermetallics as the basis for developing life prediction and test methodologies. A major objective was to understand the relationship between microstructure and mechanical behavior within the bounds of a limited number of materials. A second major objective was to determine the behavior as a function of time and temperature. Specifically, the room temperature and elevated strength and reliability, the fracture toughness, slow crack growth and the creep behavior. These results will provide input for parallel materials development and design methodology programs. Resultant design codes will be verified. A summary of the accomplishments that occurred under this program is given.

  15. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  16. Fatigue life and crack growth prediction methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Everett, Richard A., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model and life-prediction code to predict fatigue crack growth and fatigue lives of metallic materials. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective stress-intensity factor range (Delta K(sub eff)) under constant amplitude loading. Some modifications to the Delta K(sub eff)-rate relations were needed in the near threshold regime to fit small-crackgrowth rate behavior and endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue lives, for several aluminum and titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  17. Fatigue life and crack growth prediction methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model and life-prediction code to predict fatigue crack growth and fatigue lives of metallic materials are reviewed. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta(K(sub eff))) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta(K(sub eff))-rate relations were needed in the near threshold regime to fit small-crack growth rate behavior and endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue lives, for several aluminum and titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  18. Lamp-life predictive model for avionics backlights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, Richard P.; Nelson, Leonard Y.

    1998-09-01

    Active Matrix Liquid Crystal Displays (AMLCDs) used in avionics applications require high luminance, high efficacy, and long-life backlights. Currently, fluorescent lamps are the favored light sources for these high performance avionics backlights. Their spectral characteristics and high electrical efficiency are well suited to illuminating AMLCDs used in avionics applications. Fluorescent lamps, however, suffer gradual reduction in luminance output caused by various degradation mechanisms. Korry Electronics Co. recently developed a mathematical model for predicting fluorescent lamp life. The model's basis is the well characterized exponential decay of the phosphor output. The primary luminance degradation mechanism of a fluorescent lamp is related to the arc discharge. Consequently, phosphor depreciation is proportional to the discharge arc power divided by the phosphor surface area. This 'wall loading' is a parameter in the computer model developed to extrapolate long-term luminance performance. Our model predicts a rapidly increasing decay rate of the lamp output as the input power is increased to sustain constant luminance. Eventually, a run-away condition occurs -- lamp arc power must be increased by unrealistically large factors (greater than 5x) to maintain the required luminance output. This condition represents the end of the useful lamp life. The lamp life model requires the definition of several key parameters in order to accurately predict the useful lamp life of an avionics backlight. These important factors include the construction of the lamp, lamp arc power, a decay constant based on the phosphor loading, and the operational profile. Based on the above-mentioned factors, our model approximates the useful lamp life of an avionics backlight using fluorescent lamp technology. Comparisons between calculated and experimental lamp depreciation are presented.

  19. The evolution of predictive adaptive responses in human life history

    PubMed Central

    Nettle, Daniel; Frankenhuis, Willem E.; Rickard, Ian J.

    2013-01-01

    Many studies in humans have shown that adverse experience in early life is associated with accelerated reproductive timing, and there is comparative evidence for similar effects in other animals. There are two different classes of adaptive explanation for associations between early-life adversity and accelerated reproduction, both based on the idea of predictive adaptive responses (PARs). According to external PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity provides a ‘weather forecast’ of the environmental conditions into which the individual will mature, and it is adaptive for the individual to develop an appropriate phenotype for this anticipated environment. In internal PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity has a lasting negative impact on the individual's somatic state, such that her health is likely to fail more rapidly as she gets older, and there is an advantage to adjusting her reproductive schedule accordingly. We use a model of fluctuating environments to derive evolveability conditions for acceleration of reproductive timing in response to early-life adversity in a long-lived organism. For acceleration to evolve via the external PAR process, early-life cues must have a high degree of validity and the level of annual autocorrelation in the individual's environment must be almost perfect. For acceleration to evolve via the internal PAR process requires that early-life experience must determine a significant fraction of the variance in survival prospects in adulthood. The two processes are not mutually exclusive, and mechanisms for calibrating reproductive timing on the basis of early experience could evolve through a combination of the predictive value of early-life adversity for the later environment and its negative impact on somatic state. PMID:23843395

  20. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, Jeanine T.; Ortiz, Milton

    1989-01-01

    The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

  1. Life prediction for bridged fatigue cracks

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, B.N.

    1994-08-01

    One of the more promising classes of composites touted for high temperature applications, and certainly the most available, is that of relatively brittle matrices, either ceramic or intermetallic, reinforced by strong, aligned, continuous fibers. Under cyclic loading in the fiber direction, these materials develop matrix cracks that often run perpendicular to the fibers, while the fibers remain intact in the crack wake, supplying bridging tractions across the fracture surfaces. The bridging tractions shield the crack tip from the applied load, dramatically reducing the crack velocity from that expected in an unreinforced material subjected to the same value, {Delta}K{sub a}, of the cyclic applied stress intensity factor. An important issue in reliability is the prediction of the growth rates of the bridged cracks. The growth rates of matrix fatigue cracks bridged by sliding fibers are now commonly predicted by models based on the micromechanics of frictional interfaces. However, there exist many reasons, both theoretical and experimental, for suspecting that the most popular micromechanical models are probably wrong in detail in the context of fatigue cracks. Furthermore, a review of crack growth data reveals that the validity of the micromechanics-based predictive model has never been tested and may never be tested. In this paper, two alternative approaches are suggested to the engineering problem of predicting the growth rates of bridged cracks without explicit recourse to micromechanics. Instead, it is shown that the material properties required to analyze bridging effects can be deduced directly from crack growth data. Some experiments are proposed to test the validity of the proposals.

  2. Viscoelastic behavior and life-time predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillard, D. A.; Brinson, H. F.

    1985-01-01

    Fiber reinforced plastics were considered for many structural applications in automotive, aerospace and other industries. A major concern was and remains the failure modes associated with the polymer matrix which serves to bind the fibers together and transfer the load through connections, from fiber to fiber and ply to ply. An accelerated characterization procedure for prediction of delayed failures was developed. This method utilizes time-temperature-stress-moisture superposition principles in conjunction with laminated plate theory. Because failures are inherently nonlinear, the testing and analytic modeling for both moduli and strength is based upon nonlinear viscoelastic concepts.

  3. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meier, Susan Manning; Sheffler, Keith D.; Nissley, David M.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this program was to generate a life prediction model for electron-beam-physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) zirconia thermal barrier coating (TBC) on gas turbine engine components. Specific activities involved in development of the EB-PVD life prediction model included measurement of EB-PVD ceramic physical and mechanical properties and adherence strength, measurement of the thermally grown oxide (TGO) growth kinetics, generation of quantitative cyclic thermal spallation life data, and development of a spallation life prediction model. Life data useful for model development was obtained by exposing instrumented, EB-PVD ceramic coated cylindrical specimens in a jet fueled burner rig. Monotonic compression and tensile mechanical tests and physical property tests were conducted to obtain the EB-PVD ceramic behavior required for burner rig specimen analysis. As part of that effort, a nonlinear constitutive model was developed for the EB-PVD ceramic. Spallation failure of the EB-PVD TBC system consistently occurred at the TGO-metal interface. Calculated out-of-plane stresses were a small fraction of that required to statically fail the TGO. Thus, EB-PVD spallation was attributed to the interfacial cracking caused by in-plane TGO strains. Since TGO mechanical properties were not measured in this program, calculation of the burner rig specimen TGO in-plane strains was performed by using alumina properties. A life model based on maximum in-plane TGO tensile mechanical strain and TGO thickness correlated the burner rig specimen EB-PVD ceramic spallation lives within a factor of about plus or minus 2X.

  4. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.

    1985-01-01

    This is the first report of the first phase of a 3-year program. Its objectives are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The first task (Task I) is to determine the major failure mechanisms. Presently, bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep are being evaluated as potential TBC failure mechanisms. The baseline TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene'80 substrate. Pre-exposures in air and argon combined with thermal cycle tests in air and argon are being utilized to evaluate bond coat oxidation as a failure mechanism. Unexpectedly, the specimens pre-exposed in argon failed before the specimens pre-exposed in air in subsequent thermal cycles testing in air. Four bond coats with different creep strengths are being utilized to evaluate the effect of bond coat creep on TBC degradation. These bond coats received an aluminide overcoat prior to application of the top coat to reduce the differences in bond coat oxidation behavior. Thermal cycle testing has been initiated. Methods have been selected for measuring tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion both of the bond coat and top coat layers.

  5. Telomere length in early life predicts lifespan

    PubMed Central

    Heidinger, Britt J.; Blount, Jonathan D.; Boner, Winnie; Griffiths, Kate; Metcalfe, Neil B.; Monaghan, Pat

    2012-01-01

    The attrition of telomeres, the ends of eukaryote chromosomes, is thought to play an important role in cell deterioration with advancing age. The observed variation in telomere length among individuals of the same age is therefore thought to be related to variation in potential longevity. Studies of this relationship are hampered by the time scale over which individuals need to be followed, particularly in long-lived species where lifespan variation is greatest. So far, data are based either on simple comparisons of telomere length among different age classes or on individuals whose telomere length is measured at most twice and whose subsequent survival is monitored for only a short proportion of the typical lifespan. Both approaches are subject to bias. Key studies, in which telomere length is tracked from early in life, and actual lifespan recorded, have been lacking. We measured telomere length in zebra finches (n = 99) from the nestling stage and at various points thereafter, and recorded their natural lifespan (which varied from less than 1 to almost 9 y). We found telomere length at 25 d to be a very strong predictor of realized lifespan (P < 0.001); those individuals living longest had relatively long telomeres at all points at which they were measured. Reproduction increased adult telomere loss, but this effect appeared transient and did not influence survival. Our results provide the strongest evidence available of the relationship between telomere length and lifespan and emphasize the importance of understanding factors that determine early life telomere length. PMID:22232671

  6. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  7. Life history traits to predict biogeographic species distributions in bivalves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montalto, V.; Rinaldi, A.; Sarà, G.

    2015-10-01

    Organismal fecundity ( F) and its relationship with body size (BS) are key factors in predicting species distribution under current and future scenarios of global change. A functional trait-based dynamic energy budget (FT-DEB) is proposed as a mechanistic approach to predict the variation of F and BS as function of environmental correlates using two marine bivalves as model species ( Mytilus galloprovincialis and Brachidontes pharaonis). Validation proof of model skill (i.e., degree of correspondence between model predictions and field observations) and stationarity (i.e., ability of a model generated from data collected at one place/time to predict processes at another place/time) was provided to test model performance in predicting the bivalve distribution throughout the 22 sites in the Central Mediterranean Sea under local conditions of food density and body temperature. Model skill and stationarity were tested through the estimate of commission (i.e., proportion of species' absences predicted present) and omission (i.e., proportion of presences predicted absent) errors of predictions by comparing mechanistic predicted vs. observed F and BS values throughout the study area extrapolated by lab experiments and literature search. The resulting relationship was reliable for both species, and body size and fecundity were highly correlated in M. galloprovincialis compared to B. pharaonis; FT-DEB showed correct predictions of presence in more than 75 % of sites, and the regression between BS predicted vs. observed was highly significant in both species. Whilst recognising the importance of biotic interactions in shaping the distribution of species, our FT-DEB approach provided reliable quantitative estimates of where our species had sufficient F to support local populations or suggesting reproductive failure. Mechanistically, estimating F and BS as key traits of species life history can also be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context that surpasses the

  8. Life history traits to predict biogeographic species distributions in bivalves.

    PubMed

    Montalto, V; Rinaldi, A; Sarà, G

    2015-10-01

    Organismal fecundity (F) and its relationship with body size (BS) are key factors in predicting species distribution under current and future scenarios of global change. A functional trait-based dynamic energy budget (FT-DEB) is proposed as a mechanistic approach to predict the variation of F and BS as function of environmental correlates using two marine bivalves as model species (Mytilus galloprovincialis and Brachidontes pharaonis). Validation proof of model skill (i.e., degree of correspondence between model predictions and field observations) and stationarity (i.e., ability of a model generated from data collected at one place/time to predict processes at another place/time) was provided to test model performance in predicting the bivalve distribution throughout the 22 sites in the Central Mediterranean Sea under local conditions of food density and body temperature. Model skill and stationarity were tested through the estimate of commission (i.e., proportion of species' absences predicted present) and omission (i.e., proportion of presences predicted absent) errors of predictions by comparing mechanistic predicted vs. observed F and BS values throughout the study area extrapolated by lab experiments and literature search. The resulting relationship was reliable for both species, and body size and fecundity were highly correlated in M. galloprovincialis compared to B. pharaonis; FT-DEB showed correct predictions of presence in more than 75 % of sites, and the regression between BS predicted vs. observed was highly significant in both species. Whilst recognising the importance of biotic interactions in shaping the distribution of species, our FT-DEB approach provided reliable quantitative estimates of where our species had sufficient F to support local populations or suggesting reproductive failure. Mechanistically, estimating F and BS as key traits of species life history can also be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context that surpasses the

  9. Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Method Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Stanley R.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Ellis, John R.; Halbig, Michael C.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L.; Opila, Elizabeth J.; Thomas, David J.; Thomas-Ogbuji, Linus U.; Verrilli, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    Advanced launch systems (e.g., Reusable Launch Vehicle and other Shuttle Class concepts, Rocket-Based Combine Cycle, etc.), and interplanetary vehicles will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion components. The use of CMC is highly desirable to save weight, to improve reuse capability, and to increase performance. CMC candidate applications are mission and cycle dependent and may include turbopump rotors, housings, combustors, nozzle injectors, exit cones or ramps, and throats. For reusable and single mission uses, accurate prediction of life is critical to mission success. The tools to accomplish life prediction are very immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for a variety of space propulsion applications. This paper describes an approach to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system for CMC that addresses mechanical durability due to cyclic and steady thermomechanical loads, and takes into account the impact of environmental degradation.

  10. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

  11. Prediction of war veteran's mental health based on spiritual well-being, social support and self-efficacy variables: The mediating role of life satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    Soltani, Mohsen Ahmadi Tahour; Karaminia, Reza; Hashemian, Sayedeh Asefeh

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: The present study aims to provide a model for explaining the mental health of war veterans based on the variables of spiritual well-being, social support, and self-efficacy, with the mediating role of life satisfaction. Materials and Methods: The research method was descriptive a correlational. The study samples included 210 veterans, who had records in the Veterans Foundation in Tehran's number one district, Sarallah and Imam Khomeini shelters and Essaar Sports Center in Tehran. They were selected randomly and were asked to respond to questionnaires on mental health, spiritual well-being, life satisfaction, social support, and self-efficacy. The data was analyzed by LISREL software version 8.5, using the path analysis. Results: The results showed that the designed model fitted the data (AGFI = 1.00, RMSEA = 0.00 and NFI = 1.00). In the fitted model, life satisfaction and spiritual well-being directly, and social support indirectly, had a significant relationship with the mediator variable of life satisfaction of the war veterans’ mental health. Conclusions: Veterans with better social support, life satisfaction, and spiritual well-being have better mental health. PMID:25077150

  12. Shelf-Life Prediction of Chilled Foods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, Gudmundur; Kristbergsson, Kristberg

    All foods have a finite shelf life. Even foods, which mature with time, will in the end deteriorate, although their life span can exceed 100 years. Definitions of shelf life of food products differ. Some stress the suitability of the product for consump¬tion, others for how long the product can be sold. The Institute of Food Science and Technology emphasizes safety in its definition of shelf life: "The period of time under defined conditions of storage, after manufacture or packing, for which a food product will remain safe and be fit for use" ( http://www.ifst.org ). This definition does not describe what makes a food product "safe" or "fit" for use, but one can say all factors which restrict the shelf life of a food product either affect safety or quality or both.

  13. Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewicki, David G.

    1986-01-01

    How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

  14. Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

    1988-01-01

    A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

  15. Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

    1989-01-01

    A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

  16. Predicting fatigue life of metal bellows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daniels, C. M.

    1968-01-01

    Classical method of presenting fatigue data in plots of alternating stress vs number of deflection cycles is applied to bellows formed of various metals, including corrosion-resistant steel, nickel alloys, and aluminum alloys. The expected life of a new bellows design can then be determined before fabrication and testing.

  17. Damage-based life prediction model for uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Di; Kang, Guozheng; Kan, Qianhua; Yu, Chao; Zhang, Chuanzeng

    2015-08-01

    Based on the experimental observations for the uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue failure of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes (Song et al 2015 Smart Mater. Struct. 24 075004) and a new definition of damage variable corresponding to the variation of accumulated dissipation energy, a phenomenological damage model is proposed to describe the damage evolution of the NiTi microtubes during cyclic loading. Then, with a failure criterion of Dc = 1, the fatigue lives of the NiTi microtubes are predicted by the damage-based model, the predicted lives are in good agreement with the experimental ones, and all of the points are located within an error band of 1.5 times.

  18. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction. Part 1; Comparison of Bearing Life Theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Peters, Steven M.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2001-01-01

    Four rolling-element bearing life theories were chosen for analysis and compared for a simple roller-race geometry model. The life theories were those of Weibull; Lundberg and Palmgren; Ioannides and Harris; and Zaretsky. The analysis without a fatigue limit of Ioannides and Harris is identical to the Lundberg and Palmgren analysis, and the Weibull analysis is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. The resultant predicted life a each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. The least variation in predicted life with Weibull slope comes with the Zaretsky equation. Except for a Weibull slope of 1.11, at which the Weibull equation predicts the highest lives, the highest lives are predicted for the Zaretsky equation. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both the Lundherg-Palmgren and Ioannides-Harris (where tau(sub u) = 0) equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMA/ISO standard. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field. The assumption of as shear stress fatigue limit tau(sub u) results in Hertz stress-life exponents greater than are experimentally verifiable.

  19. Three dimensional thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, W. H.; Brogren, E. W.

    1976-01-01

    A study was performed to analytically determine the cyclic thermomechanical behavior and fatigue life of three configurations of a Plug Nozzle Thrust Chamber. This thrust chamber is a test model which represents the current trend in nozzle design calling for high performance coupled with weight and volume limitations as well as extended life for reusability. The study involved the use of different materials and material combinations to evaluate their application to the problem of low-cycle fatigue in the thrust chamber. The thermal and structural analyses were carried out on a three-dimensional basis. Results are presented which show plots of continuous temperature histories and temperature distributions at selected times during the operating cycle of the thrust chamber. Computed structural data show critical regions for low-cycle fatigue and the histories of strain within the regions for each operation cycle.

  20. Tension fatigue analysis and life prediction for composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    O'Brien, T. K.; Rigamonti, M.; Zanotti, C.

    1989-01-01

    A methodology is presented for the tension fatigue analysis and life prediction of composite laminates subjected to tension fatigue loading. The methodology incorporates both the generic fracture mechanics characterization of delamination and the assessment of the infuence of damage on laminate fatigue life. Tension fatigue tests were conducted on quasi-isotropic and orthotropic glass epoxy, graphite epoxy, and glass/graphite epoxy hybrid laminates, demonstrating good agreement between measured and predicted lives.

  1. Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

  2. Predicting life satisfaction of the Angolan elderly: a structural model.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, M; Tomás, J M; Galiana, L; Sancho, P; Cebrià, M A

    2013-01-01

    Satisfaction with life is of particular interest in the study of old age well-being because it has arisen as an important component of old age. A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on best predictors of life satisfaction. This research evaluates the predictive power of some aging process variables, on Angolan elderly people's life satisfaction, while including perceived health into the model. Data for this research come from a cross-sectional survey of elderly people living in the capital of Angola, Luanda. A total of 1003 Angolan elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, perceived health, active engagement, generativity, and life satisfaction. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model was built to test variables' predictive power on life satisfaction. The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. The main predictors were those related to active engagement with others. Perceived health also had a significant and positive effect on life satisfaction. Several processes together may predict life satisfaction in the elderly population of Angola, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered relevant. The key factor associated to life satisfaction seems to be active engagement with others. PMID:22793686

  3. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J. F.; Liu, A.

    1986-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components, which yields performance and durability benefits. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY (or CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal.

  4. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.; Meyer, T. G.; Nissley, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this program is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas turbine airfoils. In the program, two single crystal alloys and two coatings are being tested. These include PWA 1480, Alloy 185, overlay coating (PWA 286), and aluminide coating (PWA 273). Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the time independent (plastic) and time dependent (creep) strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularly important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system. Some of the accomplishments of the program are highlighted.

  5. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  6. Assessment of fatigue life of remanufactured impeller based on FEA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Lei; Cao, Huajun; Liu, Hailong; Zhang, Yubo

    2016-07-01

    Predicting the fatigue life of remanufactured centrifugal compressor impellers is a critical problem. In this paper, the S-N curve data were obtained by combining experimentation and theory deduction. The load spectrum was compiled by the rain-flow counting method based on the comprehensive consideration of the centrifugal force, residual stress, and aerodynamic loads in the repair region. A fatigue life simulation model was built, and fatigue life was analyzed based on the fatigue cumulative damage rule. Although incapable of providing a high-precision prediction, the simulation results were useful for the analysis of fatigue life impact factors and fatigue fracture areas. Results showed that the load amplitude greatly affected fatigue life, the impeller was protected from running at over-speed, and the predicted fatigue life was satisfied within the next service cycle safely at the rated speed.

  7. Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of BPA in rats at different life stages using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Xiaoxia Doerge, Daniel R.; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

    2013-07-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) has received considerable attention throughout the last decade due to its widespread use in consumer products. For the first time a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed in neonatal and adult rats to quantitatively evaluate age-dependent pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II metabolites. The PBPK model was calibrated in adult rats using studies on BPA metabolism and excretion in the liver and gastrointestinal tract, and pharmacokinetic data with BPA in adult rats. For immature rats the hepatic and gastrointestinal metabolism of BPA was inferred from studies on the maturation of phase II enzymes coupled with serum time course data in pups. The calibrated model predicted the measured serum concentrations of BPA and BPA conjugates after administration of 100 μg/kg of d6-BPA in adult rats (oral gavage and intravenous administration) and postnatal days 3, 10, and 21 pups (oral gavage). The observed age-dependent BPA serum concentrations were partially attributed to the immature metabolic capacity of pups. A comparison of the dosimetry of BPA across immature rats and monkeys suggests that dose adjustments would be necessary to extrapolate toxicity studies from neonatal rats to infant humans. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in young and adult rats. • BPA metabolism within enterocytes is required for fitting of oral BPA kinetic data. • BPA dosimetry in young rats is different than adult rats and young monkeys.

  8. Effect of Hoop Stress on Ball Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard; Coe, Harold H.

    1995-01-01

    A finite-element analysis (FEA) of a generic, dimensionally normalized inner race of an angular-contact ball bearing was performed under varying conditions of speed and the press (or interference) fit of the inner-race bore on a journal. The FEA results at the ball-race contact were used to derive an equation from which was obtained the radius of an equivalent cylindrical bearing race with the same or similar hoop stress. The radius of the equivalent cylinder was used to obtain a generalized closed-form approximation of the hoop stresses at the ball-inner-race contact in an angular-contact ball bearing. A life analysis was performed on both a 45- and a 120-mm-bore, angular-contact ball bearing. The predicted lives with and without hoop stress were compared with experimental endurance results obtained at 12000 and 25000 rpm with the 120-mm-bore ball bearing. A life factor equation based on hoop stress is presented.

  9. Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Development - 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Stanley R.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Thomas, David J.; Halbig, Michael C.; Opila, Elizabeth J.; Ellis, John R.

    2003-01-01

    Accurate life prediction is critical to successful use of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). The tools to accomplish this are immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for many reusable and single mission launch vehicle propulsion and airframe applications. This paper describes an approach and progress made to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system that addresses mechanical durability and environmental degradation of C/SiC.

  10. Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

    1998-01-01

    An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

  11. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The activities performed during the first year of the NASA HOST Program, Creep Fatigue Life Prediction for Engine Hot Section Materials (Isotropic), being conducted by Pratt & Whitney Aircraft are summarized. The program is a 5 year, two part effort aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results of the program produced thus far are discussed. Cast B1900 + Hf and wrought IN 718 were selected as the base and alternate materials, respectively. A single heat of B1900 + Hf was obtained and test specimens fabricated. The material was characterized with respect to grain size, gamma prime size, carbide distribution, and dislocation density. Monotonic tensile and creep testing has shown engineering properties within anticipated scatter for this material. Examination of the tensile tests has shown a transition from inhomogeneous planar slip within the grains at lower temperatures to more homogeneous matrix deformation. Examination of the creep tests has shown a transgranular failure mode at 1400 F and an intergranular failure mode at 1600 F and 1800 F.

  12. A life prediction model for laminated composite structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen, David H.

    1990-01-01

    A life prediction methodology for laminated continuous fiber composites subjected to fatigue loading conditions was developed. A summary is presented of research completed. A phenomenological damage evolution law was formulated for matrix cracking which is independent of stacking sequence. Mechanistic and physical support was developed for the phenomenological evolution law proposed above. The damage evolution law proposed above was implemented to a finite element computer program. And preliminary predictions were obtained for a structural component undergoing fatigue loading induced damage.

  13. Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

    PubMed

    Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2012-12-01

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. PMID:22897950

  14. Carbide factor predicts rolling-element bearing fatigue life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chevalier, J. L.; Zaretsky, E. V.

    1973-01-01

    Analysis was made to determine correlation between number and size of carbide particles and rolling-element fatigue. Correlation was established, and carbide factor was derived that can be used to predict fatigue life more effectively than such variables as heat treatment, chemical composition, and hardening mechanism.

  15. Strainrange partitioning life predictions of the long time metal properties council creep-fatigue tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The method of strainrange partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the time- and cycle-fraction approach. The method of strainrange partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the time- and cycle-fraction approach.

  16. Advances in fatigue life prediction methodology for metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue life, for four aluminum alloys and three titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading are described. Equations to calculate a cyclic-plastic-zone corrected effective stress-intensity factor range from a cyclic J-integral and crack-closure analysis of large cracks were reviewed. The effective stress-intensity factor range against crack growth rate relations were used in the closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth under variable-amplitude and spectrum loading. Using the closure model and microstructural features, a total fatigue life prediction method is demonstrated for three aluminum alloys under various load histories.

  17. Capacity-loss diagnostic and life-time prediction in lithium-ion batteries: Part 1. Development of a capacity-loss diagnostic method based on open-circuit voltage analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tiansi; Pei, Lei; Wang, Tingting; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo

    2016-01-01

    Effective capacity-loss diagnosis and life-time prediction are the foundations of battery second-use technology and will play an important role in the development of the new energy industry. Of the two, the capacity-loss diagnostic, as a precondition of the life-time prediction, needs to be studied first. Performing a capacity-loss diagnosis for an aging cell consists of finding the decisive degradation mechanisms for the cell's capacity degradation. Because a cell's capacity just equals the span of the open-circuit voltage (OCV), when suspect degradation mechanisms affect a cell's capacity, they will leave corresponding and particular clues in the OCV curve. Taking a cell's OCV as the diagnostic indicator, a multi-mechanistic and non-destructive diagnostic method is developed in this paper. To establish an unambiguous relationship between OCV changes and the combinations of the decisive mechanisms, all the possible OCV changes under various aging situations are systematically analyzed based on a novel simultaneous coordinate system, in which the effects of each suspect capacity-loss mechanism on the OCV curve can be clearly represented. As a summary of the analysis results, a straightforward diagnostic flowchart is presented. By following the flowchart, an aging cell can be diagnosed within three steps by observation of the OCV changes.

  18. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction model for alloys with defects: applied to A206

    SciTech Connect

    Kapoor, Rajeev; Sree Hari Rao, V.; Mishra, Rajiv S.; Baumann, John A.; Grant, Glenn J.

    2011-05-31

    Presented here is a model for the prediction of fatigue life based on the statistical distribution of pores, intermetallic particles and grains. This has been applied to a cast Al alloy A206, before and after friction stir processing (FSP). The model computes the probability to initiate a small crack based on the probability of finding combinations of defects and grains on the surface. The crack initiation and propagation life of small cracks due to these defect and grain combinations are computed and summed to obtain the total fatigue life. The defect and grain combinations are ranked according to total fatigue life and the failure probability computed. Bending fatigue experiments were carried out on A206 before and after FSP. FSP eliminated the porosity, broke down the particles and refined the microstructure. The model predicted the fatigue life of A206 before and after FSP well. The cumulative probability distribution vs. fatigue life was fitted to a three parameter Weibull distribution function. The scatter reduced after FSP and the threshold of fatigue life increased. The potential improvement in the fatigue life of A206 for a microstructure consisting of a finer distribution of particle sizes after FSP was predicted using the model.

  19. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  20. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    PubMed

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. PMID:25759430

  1. A comparison of two total fatigue life prediction methods

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, N.; Lawrence, F.V.

    1999-07-01

    A 2-D analytical model which is termed the PICC-RICC model combines the effects of plasticity-induced crack closure (PICC) and roughness-induced crack closure (RICC). The PICC-RICC model handles naturally the gradual transition from RICC to PICC dominated crack growth. In this study, the PICC-RICC model is combined with a crack nucleation model to predict the total fatigue life of a notched component. This modified PICC-RICC model will be used to examine several controversial aspects of an earlier, computationally simpler total-life model known as the IP model.

  2. Corrosion fatigue behavior and life prediction method under changing temperature condition

    SciTech Connect

    Kanasaki, Hiroshi; Hirano, Akihiko; Iida, Kunihiro; Asada, Yasuhide

    1997-12-01

    Axially strain controlled low cycle fatigue tests of a carbon steel in oxygenated high temperature water were carried out under changing temperature conditions. Two patterns of triangular wave were selected for temperature cycling. One was in-phase pattern synchronizing with strain cycling and the other was an out-of-phase pattern in which temperature was changed in anti-phase to the strain cycling. The fatigue life under changing temperature condition was in the range of the fatigue life under various constant temperature within the range of the changing temperature. The fatigue life of in-phase pattern was equivalent to that of out-of-phase pattern. The corrosion fatigue life prediction method was proposed for changing temperature condition, and was based on the assumption that the fatigue damage increased in linear proportion to increment of strain during cycling. The fatigue life predicted by this method was in good agreement with the test results.

  3. DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    2013-01-01

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  4. Development of thermomechanical life prediction models for thermal barrier coatings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.

    1985-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components. To achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Mechanistic thermomechanical and thermochemical life models and statistically significant design data are therefore required for the reliable exploitation of TBC benefits on gas turbine airfoils. Garrett's NASA-HOST Program (NAS3-23945) is designed to fulfill these requirements. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating, and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulated layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical life models are being tailored to predict TBC strain tolerance in terms of materials, engine, and mission parameters. Continuum and fracture mechanics approaches and statistical methods are being evaluated to develop tensile and compressive strain functions required to drive a mission analysis capable thermomechanical life model for TBCs. Results of initial testing to calibrate these life models will be presented.

  5. NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R.

    2002-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  6. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  7. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-11-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  8. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-09-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  9. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  10. Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.; Liu, A.

    1986-01-01

    The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimen procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.

  11. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  12. Life histories predict vulnerability to overexploitation in parrotfishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Brett M.; Houk, Peter; Russ, Garry R.; Choat, J. Howard

    2014-12-01

    A scarcity of life-history data currently exists for many exploited coral reef fishes, hindering our ability to interpret fishery dynamics and develop sound conservation policies. In particular, parrotfishes (Family Labridae) represent a ubiquitous and ecologically important group that is increasingly prevalent in commercial and artisanal fisheries worldwide. We used both fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data to examine the effect of life histories on vulnerability to overexploitation in parrotfishes. Vulnerability for each species was derived from independent measures associated with both temporal (20-year catch records) and spatial datasets. Most life-history traits examined were significant predictors of vulnerability across species, but their relative utility differed considerably. Length-based traits (e.g., lengths at maturity and sex change, maximum length) were generally superior to age-based traits (e.g., life span), but one age-based trait, age at female maturation, was the best predictor. The results suggest that easily derived metrics such as maximum length can be effective measures of sensitivity to exploitation when applied to phylogenetically related multispecies assemblages, but more holistic and comprehensive age-based demographic data should be sought, especially in data-deficient and heavily impacted regions. Given the increasing prevalence of parrotfishes in the global coral reef harvest, species-specific responses demonstrate the capacity for heavy fishing pressure to alter parrotfish assemblages considerably.

  13. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  14. Fixed-time life tests based on fuzzy life characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanagawa, Akihiro; Ohta, Hiroshi

    1992-06-01

    This paper deals with a reliability demonstration test with type-I censoring and presents a formulation based on fuzzy-set theory. Acceptable and rejectable MTBFs are represented in terms of a fuzzy concept, and Bayes' theorem plays an important role in the formulation. The proposed life test is useful when it is difficult to specify acceptable and rejectable MTBFs strictly.

  15. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  16. CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

  17. Life prediction and reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Seung-Wook; Kim, Min-Kyu; Kim, Ick-Jun; Moon, Seong-In; Sun, Yang-Kook; Kim, Hyun-Soo

    Reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries was mainly considered. Shape parameter (β) and scale parameter (η) were calculated from experimental data based on cycle life test. We also examined safety characteristics of lithium secondary batteries. As proposed by IEC 62133 (2002), we had performed all of the safety/abuse tests such as 'mechanical abuse tests', 'environmental abuse tests', 'electrical abuse tests'. This paper describes the cycle life of lithium secondary batteries, FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) and the safety/abuse tests we had performed.

  18. Fatigue life prediction in bending from axial fatigue information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manson, S. S.; Muralidharan, U.

    1982-01-01

    Bending fatigue in the low cyclic life range differs from axial fatigue due to the plastic flow which alters the linear stress-strain relation normally used to determine the nominal stresses. An approach is presented to take into account the plastic flow in calculating nominal bending stress (S sub bending) based on true surface stress. These functions are derived in closed form for rectangular and circular cross sections. The nominal bending stress and the axial fatigue stress are plotted as a function of life (N sub S) and these curves are shown for several materials of engineering interest.

  19. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  20. Life Prediction for a CMC Component Using the NASALIFE Computer Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2005-01-01

    The computer code, NASALIFE, was used to provide estimates for life of an SiC/SiC stator vane under varying thermomechanical loading conditions. The primary intention of this effort is to show how the computer code NASALIFE can be used to provide reasonable estimates of life for practical propulsion system components made of advanced ceramic matrix composites (CMC). Simple loading conditions provided readily observable and acceptable life predictions. Varying the loading conditions such that low cycle fatigue and creep were affected independently provided expected trends in the results for life due to varying loads and life due to creep. Analysis was based on idealized empirical data for the 9/99 Melt Infiltrated SiC fiber reinforced SiC.

  1. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons

    PubMed Central

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A.; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C.

    2016-01-01

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations. PMID:27091302

  2. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    PubMed

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-01-01

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations. PMID:27091302

  3. Development of a Composite Delamination Fatigue Life Prediction Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    OBrien, Thomas K.

    2009-01-01

    Delamination is one of the most significant and unique failure modes in composite structures. Because of a lack of understanding of the consequences of delamination and the inability to predict delamination onset and growth, many composite parts are unnecessarily rejected upon inspection, both immediately after manufacture and while in service. NASA Langley is leading the efforts in the U.S. to develop a fatigue life prediction methodology for composite delamination using fracture mechanics. Research being performed to this end will be reviewed. Emphasis will be placed on the development of test standards for delamination characterization, incorporation of approaches for modeling delamination in commercial finite element codes, and efforts to mature the technology for use in design handbooks and certification documents.

  4. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    PubMed Central

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  5. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  6. Tension fatigue analysis and life prediction for composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obrien, T. K.; Rigamonti, M.; Zanotti, C.

    1988-01-01

    A tension fatigue life prediction methodology for composite laminates is presented. Tension fatigue tests were conducted on quasi-isotropic and orthotropic glass epoxy, graphite epoxy, and glass/graphite epoxy hybrid laminates. Edge delamination onset data were used to generate plots of strain energy release rate as a function of cycles to delamination onset. These plots were then used along with strain energy release rate analyses of delaminations initiating at matrix cracks to predict local delamination onset. Stiffness loss was measured experimentally to account for the accumulation of matrix cracks and for delamination growth. Fatigue failure was predicted by comparing the increase in global strain resulting from stiffness loss to the decrease in laminate failure strain resulting from delaminations forming at matrix cracks through the laminate thickness. Good agreement between measured and predicted lives indicated that the through-thickness damage accumulation model can accurately describe fatigue failure for laminates where the delamination onset behavior in fatigue is well characterized, and stiffness loss can be monitored in real time to account for damage growth.

  7. Life prediction of thermomechanical fatigue using total strain version of strainrange partitioning (SRP): A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, James F.; Halford, Gary R.

    1988-01-01

    A method is proposed (without experimental verification) for extending the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles. The principal feature of TS SRP is the determination of the time-temperature-waveshape dependent elastic strainrange versus life lines that are added subsequently to the classical inelastic strainrange versus life lines to form the total strainrange versus life relations. The procedure is based on a derived relation between failure and flow behavior. Failure behavior is represented by conventional SRP inelastic strainrange versus cyclic life relations, while flow behavior is captured in terms of the cyclic stress-strain response characteristics. Stress-strain response is calculated from simple equations developed from approximations to more complex cyclic constitutive models. For applications to TMF life prediction, a new testing technique, bithermal cycling, is proposed as a means for generating the inelastic strainrange versus life relations. Flow relations for use in predicting TMF lives would normally be obtained from approximations to complex thermomechanical constitutive models. Bithermal flow testing is also proposed as an alternative to thermomechanical flow testing at low strainranges where the hysteresis loop is difficult to analyze.

  8. The 3.3K thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, W. H.

    1974-01-01

    The cause of low-cycle fatigue failure of the 3.3K Thrust Chamber was investigated. This thrust chamber typifies the current trend in rocket nozzle design which calls for high performance coupled with weight and volume limitations as well as the requirement of reusability. The analysis was performed with the BOPACE finite-element computer program which provides capability to determine viscoplastic response of a structure subjected to cyclic thermal and mechanical loading. Results are presented which show the critical region for low-cycle fatigue and the history of strain within that region for each thermo-mechanical loading cycle in the 3.3K thrust chamber. The predicted behavior was used to evaluate the low-cycle fatigue life near the throat plane of the chamber. The results show that BOPACE provides an extremely accurate prediction of structural behavior; the critical region was identified and the life determined from computed strains was within 154 cycles of the observed failure at 1013 cycles.

  9. Personality Predicts Health Declines Through Stressful Life Events During Late Mid-Life.

    PubMed

    Iacovino, Juliette M; Bogdan, Ryan; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Personality predicts the occurrence of dependent stressful life events (SLE; i.e., events reliant, at least in part, on an individual's behavior). This process, termed stress generation, contributes to psychiatric outcomes, but its role in physical health is unknown. Data were included from 998 participants (aged 55-64) in the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) study. Assessments occurred every 6 months for 18 months. Neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness were measured with the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Dependent (e.g., divorce) and independent (e.g., family death) SLE occurring within 6 months following baseline were assessed with the List of Threatening Experiences and confirmed by interviews. Health problems occurring within a year after SLE were the outcome. Analyses examined whether neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness indirectly predict the onset of new health problems through exposure to dependent SLE. Each personality trait was associated with dependent, but not independent, SLE. Only dependent SLE predicted new health problems. Each personality trait indirectly predicted the onset of new health problems through dependent SLE. Findings suggest that personality-driven stress generation influences physical health during late mid-life. Addressing personality in interventions may reduce the occurrence of SLE, in turn decreasing health risks. PMID:25929195

  10. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents a summary of results from a 7 year program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program was composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addressed the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigated the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involved experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material formed the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: group of zone axes (001), group of zone axes (011), group of zone axes (111), and group of zone axes (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal materials were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were developed for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. A life model was developed for smooth and notched fatigue in the option program. Finally, computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive and life models was developed.

  11. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  12. Fatigue life prediction of liquid rocket engine combustor with subscale test verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sung, In-Kyung

    Reusable rocket systems such as the Space Shuttle introduced a new era in propulsion system design for economic feasibility. Practical reusable systems require an order of magnitude increase in life. To achieve this improved methods are needed to assess failure mechanisms and to predict life cycles of rocket combustor. A general goal of the research was to demonstrate the use of subscale rocket combustor prototype in a cost-effective test program. Life limiting factors and metal behaviors under repeated loads were surveyed and reviewed. The life prediction theories are presented, with an emphasis on studies that used subscale test hardware for model validation. From this review, low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep-fatigue interaction (ratcheting) were identified as the main life limiting factors of the combustor. Several life prediction methods such as conventional and advanced viscoplastic models were used to predict life cycle due to low cycle thermal stress, transient effects, and creep rupture damage. Creep-fatigue interaction and cyclic hardening were also investigated. A prediction method based on 2D beam theory was modified using 3D plate deformation theory to provide an extended prediction method. For experimental validation two small scale annular plug nozzle thrusters were designed, built and tested. The test article was composed of a water-cooled liner, plug annular nozzle and 200 psia precombustor that used decomposed hydrogen peroxide as the oxidizer and JP-8 as the fuel. The first combustor was tested cyclically at the Advanced Propellants and Combustion Laboratory at Purdue University. Testing was stopped after 140 cycles due to an unpredicted failure mechanism due to an increasing hot spot in the location where failure was predicted. A second combustor was designed to avoid the previous failure, however, it was over pressurized and deformed beyond repair during cold-flow test. The test results are discussed and compared to the analytical and numerical

  13. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  14. Life test data and flight predictions for nickel-hydrogen (Ni-H/sub 2/) batteries

    SciTech Connect

    Levy, E.

    1982-08-01

    A substantial test data base is accumulating on Ni-H/sub 2/ cells, batteries and positive plates to support life predictions of greater than 10 years in synchronous and elliptical orbits and greater than 5000 cycles in low earth orbit, all at high (80 percent) depth of discharge. All cells, batteries, and positive plates used for this test data base are of a common design. The cell is the Air Force/ Hughes ''pineapple slice'' cell. The positive plate is the Air Force/EPI Colorado Springs dry sinter electrochemically impregnated plate. Cell testing includes real time tests of cells and/or batteries in all three (low earth, elliptical, synchronous) orbits. Plate testing includes real time and accelerated tests in boilerplate assemblies. Life predictions are based on understanding cell wearout modes and comparing wearout rates of nickel-hydrogen components to those of nickel-cadmium cells.

  15. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    PubMed

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children. PMID:21789735

  16. Fatigue life prediction of an intermetallic matrix composite at elevated temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartolotta, Paul A.

    1991-01-01

    A strain-based fatigue life prediction method is proposed for an intermetallic matrix composite (IMC) under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures. Styled after the Universal Slopes method, the model utilizes the composite's tensile properties to estimate fatigue life. Factors such as fiber volume ratio, number of plys and temperature dependence are implicitly incorporated into the model through these properties. The model constants are determined by using unidirectional fatigue data at temperatures of 425 and 815 C. Fatigue lives from two independent sources are used to verify the model at temperatures of 650 and 760 C. Cross-ply lives at 760 C are also predicted. It is demonstrated that the correlation between experimental and predicted lives is within a factor of two.

  17. Fatigue life prediction of an intermetallic matrix composite at elevated temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartolotta, P. A.

    1991-01-01

    A strain-based fatigue life prediction method is proposed for an intermetallic matrix composite (IMC) under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures. Styled after the 'Universal Slopes' method, the model utilizes the composite's tensile properties to estimate fatigue life. Factors such as fiber volume ratio (Vf), number of plys and temperature dependence are implicitly incorporated into the model through these properties. The model constants are determined by using unidirectional fatigue data at temperatures of 425 and 815 C. Fatigue lives from two independent sources are used to verify the model at temperatures of 650 and 760 C. Cross-ply lives at 760 C are also predicted. It is demonstrated that the correlation between experimental and predicted lives is within a factor of two.

  18. Life prediction and constitutive models for anisotropic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bill, R. C.

    1982-01-01

    The intent of this program is to develop a basic understanding of cyclic creep-fatigue deformation mechanisms and damage accumulation, a capability for reliable life prediction, and the ability to model the constitutive behavior of anisotropic single crystal (SC) and directionally solidified or recrystallized (DSR) comprise the program, and the work breakdown for each option reflects a distinct concern for two classes of anisotropic materials, SC and DSR materials, at temperatures encountered in the primary gas path (airfoil temperatures), and at temperatures typical of the blade root attachment and shank area. Work directed toward the higher temperature area of concern in the primary gas path includes effects of coatings on the behavior and properties of the materials of interest. The blade root attachment work areas will address the effects of stress concentrations associated with attachment features.

  19. Relationship between recent life events, social supports, and attitudes to domestic violence: predictive roles in behaviors.

    PubMed

    Guoping, Huang; Yalin, Zhang; Yuping, Cao; Momartin, Shakeh; Ming, Wei

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between recent life events, attitudes to domestic violence (DV), and DV behaviors among perpetrators of DV in China. A total of 600 participants were assessed for recent life events, psychological functioning, social support, and attitudes to DV. Results demonstrated that recent negative life events (NLE) and attitudes to DV were predictive factors for DV among perpetrators of DV, after controlling for demographic variables, psychological functioning, and social supports. The findings suggest that recent life events are potential factors contributing to behaviors of DV. The importance of changes of negative attitudes to DV among perpetrators was highly emphasized. Intervention and prevention programs based on psychological functioning and social support in relation to perpetrators of DV may be useful to control DV in China. PMID:19602674

  20. Synthetic Microstructure-Based Lifing of Nickel-Based Superalloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, Joseph C.

    This work focuses on the root cause of life limiting behavior in Ni-based superalloys for high pressure and temperature turbine disks applications in low cycle fatigue (LCF) by generating statistical volume elements (SVEs) of directly measured 3D microstructures for finite element method (FEM) simulations with crystal plasticity. Synthetic microstructures with experimentally determined microstructurally small fatigue crack (MSFC) weakest link features of as large as (ALA) grains and long annealing twins comprise the test cases. Upper limit truncated log-normal distributions account for the log-normal upper tail departure in grain size distributions of Ni-based superalloys more accurately representing ALA grains. Probability plots quantify the log-normality of grain sizes more effectively than traditional histograms. Twins are inserted into synthetic microstructures according to the coherent Sigma3 orientation relationship. A 3D measured dataset of the Inconel 100 (IN100) validates the Saltykov method stereology technique for estimating 3D grain size distributions from 2D; the 3D grain size distribution mean field and upper tail of IN100 is accurately predicted. The Saltykov method gave 3D grain sizes from a Rene 88 Damage Tolerant (R88DT) 2D dataset resulting in fatigue SVEs of approximately 1.5 million elements and 200 grains from FEM sensitivity studies. Changing mesh resolution minimally impacted global damage response, but converging locally requires significantly higher refinement. Fatigue interrogating FEM studies evolved hot spots in the local MSFC environment in one SVE, but not in another SVE with different crystallographic orientations, suggesting strong 3D full-field neighbor effects. The study revealed a need for slip line length considerations in crystal plasticity to better capture life limiting behavior. The findings point towards strictly limiting the ALA grain size in Ni-based superalloys to extend service life.

  1. Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.

    1985-01-01

    Life predictions are made for two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) systems produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) applied oxidation-resistant NiCrAlY bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron-beam/physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical and thermochemical testing of the program TBCs is in progress. A number of the former tests has been completed. Fracture mechanics data for the Chromalloy plasma-sprayed TBC system indicate that the cohesive toughness of the zirconia layer is increased by thermal cycling and reduced by high temperature exposure at 1150 C. Eddy current technology feasibility has been established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system. High pressure turbine blades have been coated with program TBC systems for a piggyback test in a TFE731-5 turbofan factory engine test. Data from this test will be used to validate the TBC life models.

  2. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  3. A methodology to predict residual life in LCF regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delprete, C.; Vercelli, A.

    2009-08-01

    In this paper a methodology to calibrate a nonlinear constitutive model, implemented in a finite element commercial code and able to correctly predict the cyclic behaviour of material, is proposed. This model allows to take into account all the main phenomena that occur when a metallic material is subjected to cyclic loadings, in particular cyclic hardening or softening, Bauschinger effect, ratcheting and shakedown. High Cycle Fatigue and Low Cycle Fatigue tests under different strain levels have been performed on an aluminum alloy for high temperature applications, and the obtained experimental data have been used to determine the four constitutive parameters of the isotropic and kinematic hardening parts of the model. The comparison between the number of stabilized cycles predicted by numerical simulations and experimental data has been very satisfying. Using a self-made post-processing software, the Basquin-Manson-Coffin, Neu-Sehitoglu, Chaboche and Skelton damage models have been applied to determine the residual life of the specimen and to compare the results.

  4. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents the results from a 35 month period of a program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program is composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addresses the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigates the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involve experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material form the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: (001), (011), (111), and (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal material were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were selected for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. An initial life model used to correlate smooth and notched fatigue data obtained in the option program shows promise. Computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive models was developed.

  5. Probabilistic Residual Strength Model Developed for Life Prediction of Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, David J.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Calomino, Anthony M.

    2004-01-01

    For the next generation of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is investigating introducing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in place of current superalloys for structural propulsion applications (e.g., nozzles, vanes, combustors, and heat exchangers). The higher use temperatures of CMCs will reduce vehicle weight by eliminating and/or reducing cooling system requirements. The increased strength-to-weight ratio of CMCs relative to superalloys further enhances their weight savings potential. However, in order to provide safe designs for components made of these new materials, a comprehensive life prediction methodology for CMC structures needs to be developed. A robust methodology for lifing composite structures has yet to be adopted by the engineering community. Current industry design practice continues to utilize deterministic empirically based models borrowed from metals design for predicting material life capabilities. The deterministic nature of these models inadequately addresses the stochastic character of brittle composites, and their empirical reliance makes predictions beyond the experimental test conditions a risky extrapolation. A team of engineers at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing a new life prediction engineering model. The Probabilistic Residual Strength (PRS) model uses the residual strength of the composite as its damage metric. Expected life and material strength are both considered probabilistically to account for the observed stochastic material response. Extensive experimental testing has been carried out on C/SiC (a candidate aerospace CMC material system) in a controlled 1000 ppm O2/argon environment at elevated temperatures of 800 and 1200 C. The test matrix was established to allow observation of the material behavior, characterization of the model, and validation of the model's predictive capabilities. Sample results of the validation study are illustrated in the graphs.

  6. Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Soditus, Sherry; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

  7. Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Soditus, Sherry; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2002-10-01

    Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

  8. Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abuelfoutouh, Nader Mohamed; Verrilli, M. J.; Halford, G. R.

    1989-01-01

    A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

  9. Base Rates, Contingencies, and Prediction Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith

    2009-01-01

    A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…

  10. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  11. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    DOEpatents

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  12. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Shryock, Daniel F; DeFalco, Lesley A; Esque, Todd C

    2014-08-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies. PMID:25247062

  13. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Shryock, Daniel F; DeFalco, Lesley A; Esque, Todd C

    2014-01-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies. PMID:25247062

  14. Life prediction of 808nm high power semiconductor laser by accelerated life test of constant current stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Nan; Li, Wei; Zhao, Yihao; Zhong, Li; Liu, Suping; Ma, Xiaoyu

    2015-10-01

    High power semiconductor laser is widely used because of its high transformation efficiency, good working stability, compact volume and simple driving requirements. Laser's lifetime is very long, but tests at high levels of stress can speed up the failure process and shorten the times to failure significantly. So accelerated life test is used here for forecasting the lifetime of 808nm CW GaAs/AlGaAs high power semiconductor laser that has an output power of 1W under 1.04A. Accelerated life test of constant current stress based on the Inverse Power Law Relationship was designed. Tests were conducted under 1.3A, 1.6A and 1.9A at room temperature. It is the first time that this method is used in the domestic research of laser's lifetime prediction. Applying Weibull Distribution to describe the lifetime distribution and analyzing the data of times to failure, characteristics lifetime's functional relationship model with current is achieved. Then the characteristics lifetime under normal current is extrapolated, which is 9473h. Besides, to confirm the validity of the functional relationship model, we conduct an additional accelerated life test under 1.75A. Based on this experimental data we calculated the characteristics lifetime corresponding to 1.75A that is 171h, while the extrapolated characteristics lifetime from the former functional relationship model is 162h. The two results shows 5% deviation that is very low and acceptable, which indicates that the test design is reasonable and authentic.

  15. Development of a simplified procedure for thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Porowski, J. S.; Badlani, M.; Kasrale, B.; Odonnell, W. J.; Peterson, D.

    1981-01-01

    An analytical design procedure for predicting thrust chamber life considering cyclically induced thinning and bulging of the hot gas wall is developed. The hot gas wall, composed of ligaments connecting adjacent cooling channel ribs and separating the coolant flow from the combustion gas, is subjected to pressure loading and severe thermal cycling. Thermal transients during start up and shut down cause plastic straining through the ligaments. The primary bending stress superimposed on the alternate in-plane cyclic straining causes incremental bulging of the ligaments during each firing cycle. This basic mechanism of plastic ratcheting is analyzed and a method developed for determining ligament deformation and strain. The method uses a yield surface for combined bending and membrane loading to determine the incremental permanent deflection and pregressive thinning near the center of the ligaments which cause the geometry of the ligaments to change as the incremental strains accumulate. Fatigue and tensile instability are affected by these local geometry changes. Both are analyzed and a failure criterion developed.

  16. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

  17. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  18. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    PubMed

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span. PMID:23528790

  19. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  20. Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality, environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories.

    PubMed

    Marshall, Dustin J; Burgess, Scott C

    2015-02-01

    Environmental predictability is predicted to shape the evolution of life histories. Two key types of environmental predictability, seasonality and environmental colour, may influence life-history evolution independently but formal considerations of both and how they relate to life history are exceedingly rare. Here, in a global biogeographical analysis of over 800 marine invertebrates, we explore the relationships between both forms of environmental predictability and three fundamental life-history traits: location of larval development (aplanktonic vs. planktonic), larval developmental mode (feeding vs. non-feeding) and offspring size. We found that both dispersal potential and offspring size related to environmental predictability, but the relationships depended on both the environmental factor as well as the type of predictability. Environments that were more seasonal in food availability had a higher prevalence of species with a planktonic larval stage. Future studies should consider both types of environmental predictability as each can strongly affect life-history evolution. PMID:25534504

  1. High temperature life prediction of monolithic silicon carbide heat exchanger tubes

    SciTech Connect

    Sandifer, J.B.; Edwards, M.J.; Brown, T.S. III; Duffy, S.F.

    1994-01-01

    The need for improved performance in high temperature environments is prompting industry to consider the use of structural ceramic materials in heat exchanger tubes and other high temperature components. ln recognition of this need the U. S. Department of Energy has supported work for the development of nondestructive methods for evaluating flaws in monolithic ceramic components and the associated establishment of criteria for the acceptance of flawed components. Under this development of flaw assessment criteria DOE supported the work being presented in this paper. The approach to developing the life prediction model combines finite element predictions considering creep behavior with continuum damage mechanics and Weibull reliability statistics. ABAQUS is used to predict time dependent creep response of the component based on experimental creep data. A continuity parameter is then calculated at each time step following continuum damage mechanics methods. Finally Weibull statistics are used with the resulting continuity parameter to predict the reliability at each time step through the use of the NASA-Lewis computer program CARES interfaced to ABAQUS with ABACARES. There is very limited data available to characterize the creep continuum damage and reliability behavior of the material. For the life prediction model reported it is assumed that the material damages isotropically. Directional effects of the damage can be added as material databases improve.

  2. Fatigue Life Prediction of Steel Bridges for Extreme Loading Using a New Damage Indicator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karunananda, Pallaha Athawudagedara Kamal; Ohga, Mitao; Dissanayake, Punchi Bandage Ranjith; Siriwardane, Siriwardane Arachchilage Sudath Chaminda

    High cycle fatigue (HCF) damage caused by normal traffic loading is one of the major modes of failures in steel bridges. During bridge service life, there are extreme loading situations such as typhoons, earthquakes which cause higher amplitude loading than normal traffic loading. Due to this reason, critical members could undergo overstress cycles in the plastic range. Therefore, such members are subjected to low cycle fatigue (LCF) during these situations while subjecting to HCF in serviceable condition. Bridges, which are not seriously damaged, generally continue to be functioned after these extreme loading situations and fatigue life estimation is required to ensure their safety. Therefore, this paper presents a new damage indicator based fatigue model to predict life of steel bridges due to combined effect of extreme and normal traffic loadings. It consists of a modified strain life curve and a strain based damage indicator. Both the strain life curve and the damage indicator are newly proposed in the study. Modified strain life curve consists of Coffin Manson relation in the LCF regime and a new strain life curve in the HCF regime. Damage variable is based on von Mises equivalent strain and modified by factors to consider effects of loading non proportionality and loading path in multiaxial stress state. The new damage indicator can capture the loading sequence effect. The proposed model is verified with experimental test results of combined HCF and LCF of three materials; S304L stainless steel, Haynes 188 (a Cobolt superalloy) and S45C steel obtained from the literature. The verification of experimental results confirms the validity of the proposed model.

  3. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  4. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  5. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storage cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    1987-01-01

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low Earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  6. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    1987-01-01

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  7. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    PubMed

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction. PMID:25141076

  8. Application of cyclic damage accumulation life prediction model to high temperature components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.

    1989-01-01

    A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, but it can be applied to other materials as well. The method is designed to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loading such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. Several features of this model were developed to make it practical for application to actual component analysis, such as the ability to handle nonisothermal loading (including TMF), arbitrary cycle paths, and multiple damage modes. The CDA life prediction model was derived from extensive specimen tests conducted on cast nickel-base superalloy B1900 + Hf. These included both monotonic tests (tensile and creep) and strain-controlled fatigue experiments (uniaxial, biaxial, TMF, mixed creep-fatigue, and controlled mean stress). Additional specimen tests were conducted on wrought INCO 718 to verify the applicability of the final CDA model to other high-temperature alloys. The model will be available to potential users in the near future in the form of a FORTRAN-77 computer program.

  9. Calculation of thermomechanical fatigue life based on isothermal behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.

    1987-01-01

    The isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation response of a hypothetical material was analyzed. Expected thermomechanical behavior was evaluated numerically based on simple, isothermal, cyclic stress-strain - time characteristics and on strainrange versus cyclic life relations that have been assigned to the material. The attempt was made to establish basic minimum requirements for the development of a physically accurate TMF life-prediction model. A worthy method must be able to deal with the simplest of conditions: that is, those for which thermal cycling, per se, introduces no damage mechanisms other than those found in isothermal behavior. Under these assumed conditions, the TMF life should be obtained uniquely from known isothermal behavior. The ramifications of making more complex assumptions will be dealt with in future studies. Although analyses are only in their early stages, considerable insight has been gained in understanding the characteristics of several existing high-temperature life-prediction methods. The present work indicates that the most viable damage parameter is based on the inelastic strainrange.

  10. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Swain, M. H.; Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis.

  11. NDE: A key to engine rotor life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doherty, J. E.

    1977-01-01

    A key ingredient in the establishment of safe life times for critical components is the means of reliably detecting flaws which may potentially exist. Currently used nondestructive evaluation procedures are successful in detecting life limiting defects; however, the development of automated and computer aided NDE technology permits even greater assurance of flight safety.

  12. Creep-fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1982-01-01

    The objectives of this program are the investigation of fundamental approaches to high temperature crack initiation life prediction, identification of specific modeling strategies and the development of specific models for component relevant loading conditions. A survey of the hot section material/coating systems used throughout the gas turbine industry is included. Two material/coating systems will be identified for the program. The material/coating system designated as the base system shall be used throughout Tasks 1-12. The alternate material/coating system will be used only in Task 12 for further evaluation of the models developed on the base material. In Task II, candidate life prediction approaches will be screened based on a set of criteria that includes experience of the approaches within the literature, correlation with isothermal data generated on the base material, and judgements relative to the applicability of the approach for the complex cycles to be considered in the option program. The two most promising approaches will be identified. Task 3 further evaluates the best approach using additional base material fatigue testing including verification tests. Task 4 consists of technical, schedular, financial and all other reporting requirements in accordance with the Reports of Work clause.

  13. The Social Life of a Data Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linde, Charlotte; Wales, Roxana; Clancy, Dan (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents the complex social life of a large data base. The topics include: 1) Social Construction of Mechanisms of Memory; 2) Data Bases: The Invisible Memory Mechanism; 3) The Human in the Machine; 4) Data of the Study: A Large-Scale Problem Reporting Data Base; 5) The PRACA Study; 6) Description of PRACA; 7) PRACA and Paper; 8) Multiple Uses of PRACA; 9) The Work of PRACA; 10) Multiple Forms of Invisibility; 11) Such Systems are Everywhere; and 12) Two Morals to the Story. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  14. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

    1987-01-01

    The results are presented of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and fatigue data, tests were conducted on uncoated and coated specimens loaded in the CH76 100 CH110 , CH76 110 CH110 , CH76 111 CH110 and CH76 123 CH110 crystallographic directions. Two constitutive models are being developed and evaluated for the single crystal materials: a micromechanic model based on crystallographic slip systems, and a macroscopic model which employs anisotropic tensors to model inelastic deformation anisotropy. Based on tests conducted on the overlay coating material, constitutive models for coatings also appear feasible and two initial models were selected. A life prediction approach was proposed for coated single crystal materials, including crack initiation either in the coating or in the substrate. The coating initiated failures dominated in the tests at load levels typical of gas turbine operation. Coating life was related to coating stress/strain history which was determined from specimen data using the constitutive models.

  15. Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kececioglu, D.; Guerrieri, W. N.

    1971-01-01

    The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

  16. Predicting future years of healthy life for older adults.

    PubMed

    Diehr, P; Patrick, D L; Bild, D E; Burke, G L; Williamson, J D

    1998-04-01

    Cost-effectiveness studies often need to compare the cost of a program to the lifetime benefits of the program, but estimates of lifetime benefits are not routinely available, especially for older adults. We used data from two large longitudinal studies of older adults (ages 65-100) to estimate transition probabilities from one health state to another, and used those probabilities to estimate the mean additional years of healthy life that an older adult of specified age, sex, and health status would experience. We found, for example, that 65-year-old women in excellent health can expect 16.8 years of healthy life in the future, compared to only 8.5 years for women in poor health. We also provide estimates of discounted years of healthy life and future life expectancy. These estimates may be used to extend the effective length of the study period in cost-effectiveness studies, to examine the impact of chronic diseases or risk factors on years of healthy life, or to investigate the relationship of years of life to years of healthy life. Several applications are described. PMID:9539891

  17. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  18. Age at the onset of senescence in birds and mammals is predicted by early-life performance

    PubMed Central

    Péron, Guillaume; Gimenez, Olivier; Charmantier, Anne; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Crochet, Pierre-André

    2010-01-01

    Life-history theory predicts that traits involved in maturity, reproduction and survival correlate along a fast–slow continuum of life histories. Evolutionary theories and empirical results indicate that senescence-related traits vary along this continuum, with slow species senescing later and at a slower pace than fast species. Because senescence patterns are typically difficult to estimate from studies in the wild, here we propose to predict the associated trait values in the frame of life-history theory. From a comparative analysis based on 81 free-ranging populations of 72 species of birds and mammals, we find that a nonlinear combination of fecundity, age at first reproduction and survival over the immature stage can account for ca two-thirds of the variance in the age at the onset of actuarial senescence. Our life-history model performs better than a model predicting the onset based on generation time, and it only includes life-history traits during early life as explanatory variables, i.e. parameters that are both theoretically expected to shape senescence and are measurable within relatively short studies. We discuss the good-fit of our life-history model to the available data in the light of current evolutionary theories of senescence. We further use it to evaluate whether studies that provided no evidence for senescence lasted long enough to include the onset of senescence. PMID:20427343

  19. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  20. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Third year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

    1985-01-01

    This program is designed to investigate fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines. A review is given of the base program, completed in 1984, which included the comparison and evaluation of several popular high-temperature life prediction approaches as applied to continuously cycled isothermal specimen tests. The option program, of which one year is completed, is designed to develop models which can account for complex cycles and loadings, such as thermomechanical cycling, cumulative damage, multiaxial stress/strain rates, and environmental effects.

  1. Dispersal syndromes and the use of life-histories to predict dispersal

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Virginie M; Trochet, Audrey; Blanchet, Simon; Moulherat, Sylvain; Clobert, Jean; Baguette, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Due to its impact on local adaptation, population functioning or range shifts, dispersal is considered a central process for population persistence and species evolution. However, measuring dispersal is complicated, which justifies the use of dispersal proxies. Although appealing, and despite its general relationship with dispersal, body size has however proven unsatisfactory as a dispersal proxy. Our hypothesis here is that, given the existence of dispersal syndromes, suites of life-history traits may be alternative, more appropriate proxies for dispersal. We tested this idea by using butterflies as a model system. We demonstrate that different elements of the dispersal process (i.e., individual movement rates, distances, and gene flow) are correlated with different suites of life-history traits: these various elements of dispersal form separate syndromes and must be considered real axes of a species' niche. We then showed that these syndromes allowed accurate predictions of dispersal. The use of life-history traits improved the precision of the inferences made from wing size alone by up to five times. Such trait-based predictions thus provided reliable dispersal inferences that can feed simulation models aiming at investigating the dynamics and evolution of butterfly populations, and possibly of other organisms, under environmental changes, to help their conservation. PMID:23789030

  2. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  3. Dispersal syndromes and the use of life-histories to predict dispersal.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Virginie M; Trochet, Audrey; Blanchet, Simon; Moulherat, Sylvain; Clobert, Jean; Baguette, Michel

    2013-06-01

    Due to its impact on local adaptation, population functioning or range shifts, dispersal is considered a central process for population persistence and species evolution. However, measuring dispersal is complicated, which justifies the use of dispersal proxies. Although appealing, and despite its general relationship with dispersal, body size has however proven unsatisfactory as a dispersal proxy. Our hypothesis here is that, given the existence of dispersal syndromes, suites of life-history traits may be alternative, more appropriate proxies for dispersal. We tested this idea by using butterflies as a model system. We demonstrate that different elements of the dispersal process (i.e., individual movement rates, distances, and gene flow) are correlated with different suites of life-history traits: these various elements of dispersal form separate syndromes and must be considered real axes of a species' niche. We then showed that these syndromes allowed accurate predictions of dispersal. The use of life-history traits improved the precision of the inferences made from wing size alone by up to five times. Such trait-based predictions thus provided reliable dispersal inferences that can feed simulation models aiming at investigating the dynamics and evolution of butterfly populations, and possibly of other organisms, under environmental changes, to help their conservation. PMID:23789030

  4. Life systems for a lunar base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Mark; Hawes, Philip B.; Augustine, Margret

    1992-01-01

    The Biosphere 2 project is pioneering work on life systems that can serve as a prototype for long-term habitation on the Moon. This project will also facilitate the understanding of the smaller systems that will be needed for initial lunar base life-support functions. In its recommendation for a policy for the next 50 years in space, the National Commission on Space urged, 'To explore and settle the inner Solar System, we must develop biospheres of smaller size, and learn how to build and maintain them' (National Commission on Space, 1986). The Biosphere 2 project, along with its Biospheric Research and Development Center, is a materially closed and informationally and energetically open system capable of supporting a human crew of eight, undertaking work to meet this need. This paper gives an overview of the Space Biospheres Ventures' endeavor and its lunar applications.

  5. Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

    2006-01-01

    The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

  6. Towards Practical Carbonation Prediction and Modelling for Service Life Design of Reinforced Concrete Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekolu, O. S.

    2015-11-01

    Amongst the scientific community, the interest in durability of concrete structures has been high for quite a long time of over 40 years. Of the various causes of degradation of concrete structures, corrosion is the most widespread durability problem and carbonation is one of the two causes of steel reinforcement corrosion. While much scientific understanding has been gained from the numerous carbonation studies undertaken over the past years, it is still presently not possible to accurately predict carbonation and apply it in design of structures. This underscores the complex nature of the mechanisms as influenced by several interactive factors. Based on critical literature and some experience of the author, it is found that there still exist major challenges in establishing a mathematical constitutive relation for realistic carbonation prediction. While most current models employ permeability /diffusion as the main model property, analysis shows that the most practical material property would be compressive strength, which has a low coefficient of variation of 20% compared to 30 to 50% for permeability. This important characteristic of compressive strength, combined with its merit of simplicity and data availability at all stages of a structure's life, promote its potential use in modelling over permeability. By using compressive strength in carbonation prediction, the need for accelerated testing and permeability measurement can be avoided. This paper attempts to examine the issues associated with carbonation prediction, which could underlie the current lack of a sound established prediction method. Suggestions are then made for possible employment of different or alternative approaches.

  7. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  8. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  9. Drift and diffusion coefficients of Markov diffusional process in problems of predicting the life of atomic-power-plant equipment

    SciTech Connect

    Emel'yanov, V.S.; Klemin, A.I.; Rabchun, A.V.

    1987-06-01

    The authors construct a statistical model based on the Markov diffusion process and the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation for forecasting the remaining service life of reactor components. The model is one-dimensional and allows changes in the probabilistic characteristics of random aging processes of individual mechanical systems to be predicted with sufficient accuracy for engineering purposes.

  10. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strain-range partitioning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    The applicability is described of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interation Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  11. A combined approach to buffet response analyses and fatigue life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, J. H.; Perez, R.

    1994-03-01

    Experimental measurement and neural network based prediction of wind tunnel model empennage random pressures are discussed. Artificially generated neural network power spectral densities of surface pressures are used to augment existing data and then load an elastic finite element model to obtain response spectra. Details on the use of actual response spectra from flight test data are also discussed. A random spectra fatigue method is described which effectively combines buffet and maneuver loads into a time series based on aircraft usage data. A peak-valley damage analysis procedure is employed to compute the aggregate fatigue life of the structure based on five combined load time series information. Applications of the method as a continual learning tool for buffet response spectra is elaborated.

  12. Predicting professional quality of life among professional and volunteer caregivers.

    PubMed

    Avieli, Hila; Ben-David, Sarah; Levy, Inna

    2016-01-01

    This study is one of the few that has compared volunteers' professional quality of life (PQL), which includes secondary traumatic stress (STS), burnout, and compassion satisfaction (CS), to those of professional caregivers. In addition, the research compared the ethical behavior of volunteers with that of professional therapists and examined the connection between years of experience, ethical behavior, and PQL. One hundred eighty-three volunteers and professional caregivers filled out a sociodemographic questionnaire, an Ethical Behavior Questionnaire and the Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) questionnaire. The results indicated that professional caregivers report lower levels of STS and burnout, and higher levels of CS and ethical behavior compared with volunteer caregivers. Moreover, the findings suggest that ethical behavior correlates with STS, burnout, and CS. Ethical behavior has a protective value for mental health caregivers. The discussion emphasizes the value of a professional code of ethics and ethical training for professional and volunteering caregivers. PMID:26121172

  13. Factors Predicting Life Satisfaction: A Process Model of Personality, Multidimensional Self-Concept, and Life Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Philip D.; Martin, Andrew J.; Marsh, Herbert W.

    2008-01-01

    Life satisfaction is an important component of psychological health and wellbeing. Although personality is consistently linked to life satisfaction, its "innate" and stable nature can make it a difficult target for intervention by practitioners. More malleable and context-specific factors such as multidimensional self-concept may prove…

  14. Late-life Depressive Symptoms: Prediction Models of Change

    PubMed Central

    García-Peña, Carmen; Wagner, Fernando A.; Sánchez-García, Sergio; Espinel-Bermúdez, Claudia; Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa; Pérez-Zepeda, Mario; Arango-Lopera, Victoria; Franco-Marina, Francisco; Ramírez-Aldana, Ricardo; Gallo, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Background Depression is a well-recognised problem in the elderly. The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with predictors of change in depressive symptoms, both in subjects with and without baseline significant depressive symptoms. Methods Longitudinal study of community-dwelling elderly people (>60 years or older), baseline evaluations, and two additional evaluations were reported. Depressive symptoms were measured using a 30-item Geriatric Depression Scale, and a score of 11 was used as cutoff point for significant depressive symptoms in order to stratify the analyses in two groups: with significant depressive symptoms and without significant depressive symptoms. Sociodemographic data, social support, anxiety, cognition, positive affect, control locus, activities of daily living, recent traumatic life events, physical activity, comorbidities, and quality of life were evaluated. Multi-level generalised estimating equation model was used to assess the impact on the trajectory of depressive symptoms. Results 7,882 subjects were assessed, with 29.42% attrition. At baseline assessment, mean age was 70.96 years, 61.15% were women. Trajectories of depressive symptoms had a decreasing trend. Stronger associations in those with significant depressive symptoms, were social support (OR .971, p<.001), chronic pain (OR 2.277, p<.001) and higher locus of control (OR .581, p<.001). In contrast for those without baseline significant depressive symptoms anxiety and a higher locus of control were the strongest associations. Conclusions New insights into late-life depression are provided, with special emphasis in differentiated factors influencing the trajectory when stratifying regarding basal status of significant depressive symptoms. Limitations The study has not included clinical evaluations and nutritional assessments PMID:23731940

  15. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Two year update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1984-01-01

    Requirements for increased durability of gas turbine hot section components have placed a greater degree of importance on accurate structural analysis and life prediction. Various life prediction approaches for high temperature applications were investigated. Basic models were selected and developed for simple-cycle, isothermal loading conditions. Models will be developed which address thermomechanical cycling, multiaxial conditions, cumulative loading, environmental effects, and cyclic mean stress. Verification tests of models will be conducted on an alternate material and coating system.

  16. The LIFE computer code: Fatigue life prediction for vertical axis wind turbine components

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, H.J.; Ashwill, T.D.; Slack, N.

    1987-08-01

    The LIFE computer code was originally written by Veers to analyze the fatigue life of a vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) blade. The basic assumptions built into this analysis tool are: the fatigue life of a blade component is independent of the mean stress; the frequency distribution of the vibratory stresses may be described adequately by a Rayleigh probability density function; and damage accumulates linearly (Miner's Rule). Further, the yearly distribution of wind is assumed to follow a Rayleigh distribution. The original program has been updated to run in an interactive mode on a personal computer with a BASIC interpreter and 256K RAM. Additional capabilities included in this update include: the generalization of the Rayleigh function for the wind speed distribution to a Weibull function; the addition of two constitutive rules for the evaluation of the effects of mean stress on fatigue life; interactive data input; and the inclusion of a stress concentration factor into the analysis.

  17. Use of strainrange partitioning to predict high temperature low-cycle fatigue life. [of metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirschberg, M. H.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    The fundamental concepts of the strainrange partitioning approach to high temperature, low low-cycle fatigue are reviewed. Procedures are presented by which the partitioned strainrange versus life relationships for any material can be generated. Laboratory tests are suggested for further verifying the ability of the method of strainrange partitioning to predict life.

  18. Predicting Trajectories of Offending over the Life Course: Findings from a Dutch Conviction Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bersani, Bianca E.; Nieuwbeerta, Paul; Laub, John H.

    2009-01-01

    Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course, especially the prediction of high-rate offenders, has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Motivated by a recent study by Sampson and Laub (2003), this study uses longitudinal data on conviction histories from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course…

  19. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  20. Fundamental understanding and life prediction of stress corrosion cracking in BWRs and energy systems

    SciTech Connect

    Andresen, P.L.; Ford, F.P.

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an approach for design and lifetime evaluation of environmental cracking based on experimental and fundamental modeling of the underlying processes operative in crack advance. In detailed this approach and its development and quantification for energy (hot water) systems, the requirements for a life prediction methodology will be highlighted and the shortcomings of the existing design and lifetime evaluation codes reviewed. Examples are identified of its use in a variety of cracking systems, such as stainless steels, low alloy steels, nickel base alloys, and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking in boiling water reactor (BWR) water, as well as preliminary use for low alloy steel and Alloy 600 in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and turbine steels in steam turbines. Identification of the common aspects with environmental cracking in other hot water systems provides a secure basis for its extension to related energy systems. 166 refs., 49 figs.

  1. NASALife-Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program and Illustrative Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.

    2005-01-01

    NASALife is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although, the primary focus was for CMC components the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading (Miner s rule) and creep are combined to determine the total damage per mission and the number of missions the component can survive before failure are calculated. Illustration of code usage is provided through example problem of a CMC turbine stator vane made of melt-infiltrated, silicon carbide fiber-reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (MI SiC/SiC)

  2. Contact Stress Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of a Turbine Fan Disc

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Liang; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Lv, Zhiqiang; Zuo, Fang-Jun; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Fan discs are critical components of an aero engine. In this paper, contact stress and life prediction of a turbine fan disc were investigated. A simplified pin/disc model was conducted to simulate the practical working condition under applied loads using finite element (FE) analysis. This study is devoted to examining the effects of interface condition of pin/disc such as gap and coefficient upon the maximum stress. The FE model indicated that the maximum stress occurs at the top right corner in the second pin hole, and larger gap or friction coefficient has a significant effect on the maximum stress. In addition, FE analysis without considering friction is also conducted. The results show that the dangerous point is similar to the result which considers friction and the stress state is relatively larger than that of considering friction. Finally, based on FE analysis result, life prediction for the fan disc is conducted to combine the material S-N curve, mean stress effects and concentration stress factor obtained by means of FE method.

  3. Predicting 6-week treatment response to escitalopram pharmacotherapy in late-life major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    Saghafi, Ramin; Brown, Charlotte; Butters, Meryl A.; Cyranowski, Jill; Dew, Mary Amanda; Frank, Ellen; Gildengers, Ariel; Karp, Jordan F.; Lenze, Eric J.; Lotrich, Francis; Martire, Lynn; Mazumdar, Sati; Miller, Mark D.; Mulsant, Benoit H.; Weber, Elizabeth; Whyte, Ellen; Morse, Jennifer; Stack, Jacqueline; Houck, Patricia R.; Bensasi, Salem; Reynolds, Charles F.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY Objective Approximately half of older patients treated for major depressive disorder (MDD) do not achieve symptomatic remission and functional recovery with first-line pharmacotherapy. This study aims to characterize sociodemographic, clinical, and neuropsychologic correlates of full, partial, and non-response to escitalopram monotherapy of unipolar MDD in later life. Methods One hundred and seventy-five patients aged 60 and older were assessed at baseline on demographic variables, depression severity, hopelessness, anxiety, cognitive functioning, co-existing medical illness burden, social support, and quality of life (disability). Subjects received 10 mg/d of open-label escitalopram and were divided into full (n =55; 31%), partial (n =75; 42.9%), and non-responder (n =45; 25.7%) groups based on Hamilton depression scores at week 6. Univariate followed by multivariate analyses tested for differences between the three groups. Results Non-responders to treatment were found to be more severely depressed and anxious at baseline than both full and partial responders, more disabled, and with lower self-esteem than full responders. In general partial responders resembled full responders more than they resembled non-responders. In multivariate models, more severe anxiety symptoms (both psychological and somatic) and lower self-esteem predicted worse response status at 6 weeks. Conclusion Among treatment-seeking elderly persons with MDD, higher anxiety symptoms and lower self-esteem predict poorer response after six weeks of escitalopram treatment. PMID:17486678

  4. A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

    1992-01-01

    A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

  5. A Fatigue Life Prediction Model of Welded Joints under Combined Cyclic Loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goes, Keurrie C.; Camarao, Arnaldo F.; Pereira, Marcos Venicius S.; Ferreira Batalha, Gilmar

    2011-01-01

    A practical and robust methodology is developed to evaluate the fatigue life in seam welded joints when subjected to combined cyclic loading. The fatigue analysis was conducted in virtual environment. The FE stress results from each loading were imported to fatigue code FE-Fatigue and combined to perform the fatigue life prediction using the S x N (stress x life) method. The measurement or modelling of the residual stresses resulting from the welded process is not part of this work. However, the thermal and metallurgical effects, such as distortions and residual stresses, were considered indirectly through fatigue curves corrections in the samples investigated. A tube-plate specimen was submitted to combined cyclic loading (bending and torsion) with constant amplitude. The virtual durability analysis result was calibrated based on these laboratory tests and design codes such as BS7608 and Eurocode 3. The feasibility and application of the proposed numerical-experimental methodology and contributions for the technical development are discussed. Major challenges associated with this modelling and improvement proposals are finally presented.

  6. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  7. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability.

  8. Planner-Based Control of Advanced Life Support Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muscettola, Nicola; Kortenkamp, David; Fry, Chuck; Bell, Scott

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an approach to the integration of qualitative and quantitative modeling techniques for advanced life support (ALS) systems. Developing reliable control strategies that scale up to fully integrated life support systems requires augmenting quantitative models and control algorithms with the abstractions provided by qualitative, symbolic models and their associated high-level control strategies. This will allow for effective management of the combinatorics due to the integration of a large number of ALS subsystems. By focusing control actions at different levels of detail and reactivity we can use faster: simpler responses at the lowest level and predictive but complex responses at the higher levels of abstraction. In particular, methods from model-based planning and scheduling can provide effective resource management over long time periods. We describe reference implementation of an advanced control system using the IDEA control architecture developed at NASA Ames Research Center. IDEA uses planning/scheduling as the sole reasoning method for predictive and reactive closed loop control. We describe preliminary experiments in planner-based control of ALS carried out on an integrated ALS simulation developed at NASA Johnson Space Center.

  9. Fatigue-Life Prediction Methodology Using Small-Crack Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newmann, James C., Jr.; Phillips, Edward P.; Swain, M. H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict fatigue lives of metallic materials using 'small-crack theory' for various materials and loading conditions. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional state-of-stress effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta K(eff)) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta k(eff)-rate relations were needed in the near-threshold regime to fit measured small-crack growth rate behavior and fatigue endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and to predict total fatigue lives, for notched and un-notched specimens made of two aluminum alloys and a steel under constant-amplitude and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks for the aluminum alloys and steel for edge-notched specimens. An equivalent-initial-flaw-size concept was used to calculate fatigue lives in other cases. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  10. Knowledge-based fragment binding prediction.

    PubMed

    Tang, Grace W; Altman, Russ B

    2014-04-01

    Target-based drug discovery must assess many drug-like compounds for potential activity. Focusing on low-molecular-weight compounds (fragments) can dramatically reduce the chemical search space. However, approaches for determining protein-fragment interactions have limitations. Experimental assays are time-consuming, expensive, and not always applicable. At the same time, computational approaches using physics-based methods have limited accuracy. With increasing high-resolution structural data for protein-ligand complexes, there is now an opportunity for data-driven approaches to fragment binding prediction. We present FragFEATURE, a machine learning approach to predict small molecule fragments preferred by a target protein structure. We first create a knowledge base of protein structural environments annotated with the small molecule substructures they bind. These substructures have low-molecular weight and serve as a proxy for fragments. FragFEATURE then compares the structural environments within a target protein to those in the knowledge base to retrieve statistically preferred fragments. It merges information across diverse ligands with shared substructures to generate predictions. Our results demonstrate FragFEATURE's ability to rediscover fragments corresponding to the ligand bound with 74% precision and 82% recall on average. For many protein targets, it identifies high scoring fragments that are substructures of known inhibitors. FragFEATURE thus predicts fragments that can serve as inputs to fragment-based drug design or serve as refinement criteria for creating target-specific compound libraries for experimental or computational screening. PMID:24762971

  11. Study of the spiritual intelligence role in predicting university students' quality of life.

    PubMed

    Bolghan-Abadi, Mustafa; Ghofrani, Fatemeh; Abde-Khodaei, Mohammad Saeed

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the spiritual intelligence role in predicting Quchan University students' quality of life. In order to collect data, a sample of 143 students of Quechan University was selected randomly enrolled for 89-90 academic year. The instruments of the data collecting are World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL) and Spiritual Intelligence Questionnaire. For analyzing the data, the standard deviation, and Pearson's correlation coefficient in descriptive level, and in inferential level, the regression test was used. The results of the study show that the spiritual intelligence has effective role on predicting quality of life. PMID:22528289

  12. Latex rubber condoms: predicting and extending shelf life.

    PubMed

    Free, M J; Srisamang, V; Vail, J; Mercer, D; Kotz, R; Marlowe, D E

    1996-04-01

    Condoms from five manufacturers were subjected to controlled exposures of heat, humidity, and air and to different natural environments in five countries. Under aerobic conditions (condoms in permeable packages or unpackaged), stress properties declined. The relationship between rate of decline as a function of temperature was quadratic. Under oxygen-restricted conditions (foil-wrapped packages) at average storage temperatures of 30 degrees C and lower, strain properties declined with little or no significant change in stress properties. The effect is to cause condoms to become stiffer; high-breakage rates in use have been correlated with product stiffening. A new rationale for accelerated-aging tests to predict condom shelf stability is suggested, including a test to control the trend of condoms to stiffen. Silicone lubricant, impermeable packaging, and inclusion of antioxidants in the condom formulation can prevent or minimize aerobic breakdown of latex condoms. Specifying low-modulus condoms can prevent excessive stiffening. PMID:8706440

  13. A Micromechanics-Based Method for Multiscale Fatigue Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, John Allan

    An estimated 80% of all structural failures are due to mechanical fatigue, often resulting in catastrophic, dangerous and costly failure events. However, an accurate model to predict fatigue remains an elusive goal. One of the major challenges is that fatigue is intrinsically a multiscale process, which is dependent on a structure's geometric design as well as its material's microscale morphology. The following work begins with a microscale study of fatigue nucleation around non- metallic inclusions. Based on this analysis, a novel multiscale method for fatigue predictions is developed. This method simulates macroscale geometries explicitly while concurrently calculating the simplified response of microscale inclusions. Thus, providing adequate detail on multiple scales for accurate fatigue life predictions. The methods herein provide insight into the multiscale nature of fatigue, while also developing a tool to aid in geometric design and material optimization for fatigue critical devices such as biomedical stents and artificial heart valves.

  14. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (ISOTROPIC)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Schoendorf, J. F.; Lin, L. S.

    1986-01-01

    The specific activities summarized include: verification experiments (base program); thermomechanical cycling model; multiaxial stress state model; cumulative loading model; screening of potential environmental and protective coating models; and environmental attack model.

  15. Predicting Learned Helplessness Based on Personality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maadikhah, Elham; Erfani, Nasrollah

    2014-01-01

    Learned helplessness as a negative motivational state can latently underlie repeated failures and create negative feelings toward the education as well as depression in students and other members of a society. The purpose of this paper is to predict learned helplessness based on students' personality traits. The research is a predictive…

  16. Uncertainty Analysis in Fatigue Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Blades Using Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Li, Jing; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2015-12-01

    This paper investigates Bayesian model selection for fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades is a critical issue for the operation and health management of modern aircraft engines. Since lots of life prediction models have been presented to predict the fatigue life of gas turbine blades, model uncertainty and model selection among these models have consequently become an important issue in the lifecycle management of turbine blades. In this paper, fatigue life estimation is carried out by considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty simultaneously. It is formulated as the joint posterior distribution of a fatigue life prediction model and its model parameters using Bayesian inference method. Bayes factor is incorporated to implement the model selection with the quantified model uncertainty. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to facilitate the calculation. A pictorial framework and a step-by-step procedure of the Bayesian inference method for fatigue life estimation considering model uncertainty are presented. Fatigue life estimation of a gas turbine blade is implemented to demonstrate the proposed method.

  17. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas temperature airfoils. Two single crystal alloys and two coatings are now being tested. These include PWA 1480; Alloy 185; overlay coating, PWA 286; and aluminide coating, PWA 273. Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the plastic and creep strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularily important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system.

  18. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  19. TMC Behavior Modeling and Life Prediction Under Multiaxial Stresses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merrick, H. F.; Aksoy, S. Z.; Costen, M.; Ahmad, J.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this program was to manufacture and burst test small diameter SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V composite rings for use in the design of an advanced titanium matrix composite (TMC) impeller. The Textron Specialty Metals grooved foil-fiber process was successfully used to make high quality TMC rings. A novel spin test arbor with "soft touch" fingers to retain the TMC ring was designed and manufactured. The design of the arbor took into account its use for cyclic experiments as well as ring burst tests. Spin testing of the instrumented ring was performed at ambient, 149C (300F), and 316C (600F) temperatures. Assembly vibration was encountered during spin testing but this was overcome through simple modification of the arbor. A spin-to-burst test was successfully completed at 316C (600F). The rotational speed of the TMC ring at burst was close to that predicted. In addition to the spin test program, a number of SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V test panels were made. Neat Ti-6Al-4V panels also were made.

  20. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Schoendorf, J. F.

    1992-01-01

    A series of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests have been completed to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed mean stresses. The baseline alloy used in these tests was cast B1900+Hf (with and without coatings); a small number of tests of wrought INCO 718 are also included. A strong path dependence was demonstrated during the thermomechanical fatigue testing, using in-phase, out-phase, and non-proportional (elliptical and 'dogleg') strain-temperature cycles. The multiaxial tests also demonstrated cycle path to be a significant variable, using both proportional and non-proportional tension-torsion loading. Environmental screening tests were conducted in moderate pressure oxygen and purified argon; the oxygen reduced the specimen lives by two, while the argon testing produced ambiguous data. Both NiCoCrAlY overlay and diffusion aluminide coatings were evaluated under isothermal and TMF conditions; in general, the lives of the coated specimens were higher that those of uncoated specimens. Controlled mean stress TMF tests showed that small mean stress changes could change initiation lives by orders of magnitude; these results are not conservatively predicted using traditional linear damage summation rules. Microstructures were evaluated using optical, SEM and TEM methods.

  1. Prediction of rigid silica based insulation conductivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Stanley D.; Curry, Donald M.

    1993-01-01

    A method is presented for predicting the thermal conductivity of low density, silica based fibrous insulators. It is shown that the method can be used to extend data values to the upper material temperature limits from those obtained from the test data. It is demonstrated that once the conductivity is accurately determined by the analytical model the conductivity for other atmospheres can be predicted. The method is similar to that presented by previous investigators, but differs significantly in the contribution due to gas and internal radiation.

  2. Empirical modeling of environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation in structural alloys for component life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richey, Edward, III

    1995-01-01

    This research aims to develop the methods and understanding needed to incorporate time and loading variable dependent environmental effects on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) into computerized fatigue life prediction codes such as NASA FLAGRO (NASGRO). In particular, the effect of loading frequency on FCP rates in alpha + beta titanium alloys exposed to an aqueous chloride solution is investigated. The approach couples empirical modeling of environmental FCP with corrosion fatigue experiments. Three different computer models have been developed and incorporated in the DOS executable program. UVAFAS. A multiple power law model is available, and can fit a set of fatigue data to a multiple power law equation. A model has also been developed which implements the Wei and Landes linear superposition model, as well as an interpolative model which can be utilized to interpolate trends in fatigue behavior based on changes in loading characteristics (stress ratio, frequency, and hold times).

  3. Validation of Framework Code Approach to a Life Prediction System for Fiber Reinforced Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gravett, Phillip

    1997-01-01

    The grant was conducted by the MMC Life Prediction Cooperative, an industry/government collaborative team, Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) acted as the prime contractor on behalf of the Cooperative for this grant effort. See Figure I for the organization and responsibilities of team members. The technical effort was conducted during the period August 7, 1995 to June 30, 1996 in cooperation with Erwin Zaretsky, the LERC Program Monitor. Phil Gravett of Pratt & Whitney was the principal technical investigator. Table I documents all meeting-related coordination memos during this period. The effort under this grant was closely coordinated with an existing USAF sponsored program focused on putting into practice a life prediction system for turbine engine components made of metal matrix composites (MMC). The overall architecture of the NMC life prediction system was defined in the USAF sponsored program (prior to this grant). The efforts of this grant were focussed on implementing and tailoring of the life prediction system, the framework code within it and the damage modules within it to meet the specific requirements of the Cooperative. T'he tailoring of the life prediction system provides the basis for pervasive and continued use of this capability by the industry/government cooperative. The outputs of this grant are: 1. Definition of the framework code to analysis modules interfaces, 2. Definition of the interface between the materials database and the finite element model, and 3. Definition of the integration of the framework code into an FEM design tool.

  4. Life prediction of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect for solid oxide fuel cell applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. N.; Sun, X.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

    In this paper, we present an integrated experimental and modeling methodology in predicting the life of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect (IC) for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. The ultimate goal is to provide cell designer and manufacture with a predictive methodology such that the life of the IC system can be managed and optimized through different coating thickness to meet the overall cell designed life. Crofer 22 APU is used as the example IC material system. The life of coated and uncoated Crofer 22 APU under isothermal cooling was predicted by comparing the predicted interfacial strength and the interfacial stresses induced by the cooling process from the operating temperature to room temperature, together with the measured oxide scale growth kinetics. It was found that the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and the Crofer 22 APU substrate decreases with the growth of the oxide scale, and that the interfacial strength for the oxide scale/spinel coating interface is much higher than that of the oxide scale/Crofer 22 APU substrate interface. As expected, the predicted life of the coated Crofer 22 APU is significantly longer than that of the uncoated Crofer 22 APU.

  5. Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2003-01-01

    This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

  6. Highway traffic noise prediction based on GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jianghua; Qin, Qiming

    2014-05-01

    Before building a new road, we need to predict the traffic noise generated by vehicles. Traditional traffic noise prediction methods are based on certain locations and they are not only time-consuming, high cost, but also cannot be visualized. Geographical Information System (GIS) can not only solve the problem of manual data processing, but also can get noise values at any point. The paper selected a road segment from Wenxi to Heyang. According to the geographical overview of the study area and the comparison between several models, we combine the JTG B03-2006 model and the HJ2.4-2009 model to predict the traffic noise depending on the circumstances. Finally, we interpolate the noise values at each prediction point and then generate contours of noise. By overlaying the village data on the noise contour layer, we can get the thematic maps. The use of GIS for road traffic noise prediction greatly facilitates the decision-makers because of GIS spatial analysis function and visualization capabilities. We can clearly see the districts where noise are excessive, and thus it becomes convenient to optimize the road line and take noise reduction measures such as installing sound barriers and relocating villages and so on.

  7. A T-EOF Based Prediction Method.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yung-An

    2002-01-01

    A new statistical time series prediction method based on temporal empirical orthogonal function (T-EOF) is introduced in this study. This method first applies singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to extract dominant T-EOFs from historical data. Then, the most recent data are projected onto an optimal subset of the T-EOFs to estimate the corresponding temporal principal components (T-PCs). Finally, a forecast is constructed from these T-EOFs and T-PCs. Results from forecast experiments on the El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) indices from 1993 to 2000 showed that this method consistently yielded better correlation skill than autoregressive models for a lead time longer than 6 months. Furthermore, the correlation skills of this method in predicting Niño-3 index remained above 0.5 for a lead time up to 36 months during this period. However, this method still encountered the `spring barrier' problem. Because the 1990s exhibited relatively weak spring barrier, these results indicate that the T-EOF based prediction method has certain extended forecasting capability in the period when the spring barrier is weak. They also suggest that the potential predictability of ENSO in a certain period may be longer than previously thought.

  8. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, T.; Trunova, O.; Herzog, R.; Singheiser, L.

    2012-10-01

    The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC) system consisted of (i) an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC) applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS) and (ii) an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ) top coat air plasma sprayed (APS) at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1). The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT), acoustic emission (AE) analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  9. Cognitive styles and life events interact to predict bipolar and unipolar symptomatology.

    PubMed

    Reilly-Harrington, N A; Alloy, L B; Fresco, D M; Whitehouse, W G

    1999-11-01

    This study examined the interaction of cognitive style (as assessed self-report and information-processing battery) and stressful life events in predicting the clinician-rated depressive and manic symptomatology of participants with Research Diagnostic Criteria lifetime diagnoses of bipolar disorder (n = 49), unipolar depression (n = 97), or no lifetime diagnosis (n = 23). Bipolar and unipolar participants' attributional styles, dysfunctional attitudes, and negative self-referent information processing as assessed at Time 1 interacted significantly with the number of negative life events that occurred between Times 1 and 2 to predict increases in depressive symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. Within the bipolar group, participants' Time 1 attributional styles and dysfunctional attitudes interacted significantly, and their self-referent information processing interacted marginally, with intervening life events to predict increases in manic symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. These findings provide support for the applicability of cognitive vulnerability-stress theories of depression to bipolar spectrum disorders. PMID:10609421

  10. A New Ductility Exhaustion Model for High Temperature Low Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Disk Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Haiqing; Sun, Rui; Zuo, Ming J.

    2011-06-01

    Based on ductility exhaustion theory and the generalized energy-based damage parameter, a new viscosity-based life prediction model is introduced to account for the mean strain/stress effects in the low cycle fatigue regime. The loading waveform parameters and cyclic hardening effects are also incorporated within this model. It is assumed that damage accrues by means of viscous flow and ductility consumption is only related to plastic strain and creep strain under high temperature low cycle fatigue conditions. In the developed model, dynamic viscosity is used to describe the flow behavior. This model provides a better prediction of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior when compared to Goswami's ductility model and the generalized damage parameter. Under non-zero mean strain conditions, moreover, the proposed model provides more accurate predictions of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior than that with zero mean strains.