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Sample records for based life prediction

  1. Life prediction modeling based on strainrange partitioning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    1988-01-01

    Strainrange partitioning (SRP) is an integrated low-cycle-fatigue life predicting system. It was created specifically for calculating cyclic crack initiation life under severe high-temperature fatigue conditions. The key feature of the SRP system is its recognition of the interacting mechanisms of cyclic inelastic deformation that govern cyclic life at high temperatures. The SRP system bridges the gap between the mechanistic level of understanding that breeds new and better materials and the phenomenological level wherein workable engineering life prediction methods are in great demand. The system was recently expanded to address engineering fatigue problems in the low-strain, long-life, nominally elastic regime. This breakthrough, along with other advances in material behavior and testing technology, has permitted the system to also encompass low-strain thermomechanical loading conditions. Other important refinements of the originally proposed method include procedures for dealing with life-reducing effects of multiaxial loading, ratcheting, mean stresses, nonrepetitive (cumulative loading) loading, and environmental and long-time exposure. Procedure were also developed for partitioning creep and plastic strain and for estimating strainrange versus life relations from tensile and creep rupture properties. Each of the important engineering features of the SRP system are discussed and examples shown of how they help toward predicting high-temperature fatigue life under practical, although complex, loading conditions.

  2. Life prediction modeling based on cyclic damage accumulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, where initiation was defined as a 0.030 inch surface length crack. A principal engineering feature of the CDA method is the minimum data base required for implementation. Model constants can be evaluated through a few simple specimen tests such as monotonic loading and rapic cycle fatigue. The method was expanded to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loadings such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. A significant data base was generated on the behavior of the cast nickel-base superalloy B1900+Hf, including hundreds of specimen tests under such loading conditions. This information is being used to refine and extend the CDA life prediction model, which is now nearing completion. The model is also being verified using additional specimen tests on wrought INCO 718, and the final version of the model is expected to be adaptable to most any high-temperature alloy. The model is currently available in the form of equations and related constants. A proposed contract addition will make the model available in the near future in the form of a computer code to potential users.

  3. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating.

    PubMed

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

  4. SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

  5. An Energy Based Fatigue Life Prediction Framework for In-Service Structural Components

    SciTech Connect

    H. Ozaltun; M. H.H. Shen; T. George; C. Cross

    2011-06-01

    An energy based fatigue life prediction framework has been developed for calculation of remaining fatigue life of in service gas turbine materials. The purpose of the life prediction framework is to account aging effect caused by cyclic loadings on fatigue strength of gas turbine engines structural components which are usually designed for very long life. Previous studies indicate the total strain energy dissipated during a monotonic fracture process and a cyclic process is a material property that can be determined by measuring the area underneath the monotonic true stress-strain curve and the sum of the area within each hysteresis loop in the cyclic process, respectively. The energy-based fatigue life prediction framework consists of the following entities: (1) development of a testing procedure to achieve plastic energy dissipation per life cycle and (2) incorporation of an energy-based fatigue life calculation scheme to determine the remaining fatigue life of in-service gas turbine materials. The accuracy of the remaining fatigue life prediction method was verified by comparison between model approximation and experimental results of Aluminum 6061-T6. The comparison shows promising agreement, thus validating the capability of the framework to produce accurate fatigue life prediction.

  6. Low Cycle Fatigue Behavior and Life Prediction of a Cast Cobalt-Based Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ho-Young; Kim, Jae-Hoon; Yoo, Keun-Bong

    Co-base superalloys have been applied in the stationary components of gas turbine owing to their excellent high temperature properties. Low cycle fatigue data on ECY-768 reported in a companion paper were used to evaluate fatigue life prediction models. In this study, low cycle fatigue tests are performed as the variables of total strain range and temperatures. The relations between plastic and total strain energy densities and number of cycles to failure are examined in order to predict the low cycle fatigue life of Cobalt-based super alloy at different temperatures. The fatigue lives is evaluated using predicted by Coffin-Manson method and strain energy methods is compared with the measured fatigue lives at different temperatures. The microstructure observing was performed for how affect able to low-cycle fatigue life by increasing the temperature.

  7. Battery Life Predictive Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2009-12-31

    The Software consists of a model used to predict battery capacity fade and resistance growth for arbitrary cycling and temperature profiles. It allows the user to extrapolate from experimental data to predict actual life cycle.

  8. A strength-based wearout model for predicting the life of composite structures

    SciTech Connect

    Schaff, J.R.; Davidson, B.D.

    1997-12-31

    A model to predict the residual strength and life of polymeric composite structures subjected to spectrum fatigue loadings is described. The model is based on the fundamental assumptions that the structure undergoes proportional loading, that the residual strength is a monotonically decreasing function of the number of fatigue cycles, and that both the life distribution due to continuous constant amplitude cycling and the residual strength distribution after an arbitrary load history may be represented by two parameter Weibull functions. The model also incorporates a cycle mix factor to account for the drastic reduction of fatigue life that may be caused by a large number of changes in the stress amplitude of the loading. The model`s predictions are compared to experimentally determined fatigue life distributions for uniaxial loadings of a number of laminates comprised of different materials and layups. Constant-amplitude, two-stress level, and spectrum fatigue loadings, including the FALSTAFF (Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue) spectrum, are considered. The theoretical fatigue life distributions are shown to correlate well with the experimental results. Moreover, excellent correlation of theory and experiment is obtained for an average fatigue life that is based on the 63.2% probability of failure.

  9. Predicting pedestrian flow: a methodology and a proof of concept based on real-life data.

    PubMed

    Davidich, Maria; Köster, Gerta

    2013-01-01

    Building a reliable predictive model of pedestrian motion is very challenging: Ideally, such models should be based on observations made in both controlled experiments and in real-world environments. De facto, models are rarely based on real-world observations due to the lack of available data; instead, they are largely based on intuition and, at best, literature values and laboratory experiments. Such an approach is insufficient for reliable simulations of complex real-life scenarios: For instance, our analysis of pedestrian motion under natural conditions at a major German railway station reveals that the values for free-flow velocities and the flow-density relationship differ significantly from widely used literature values. It is thus necessary to calibrate and validate the model against relevant real-life data to make it capable of reproducing and predicting real-life scenarios. In this work we aim at constructing such realistic pedestrian stream simulation. Based on the analysis of real-life data, we present a methodology that identifies key parameters and interdependencies that enable us to properly calibrate the model. The success of the approach is demonstrated for a benchmark model, a cellular automaton. We show that the proposed approach significantly improves the reliability of the simulation and hence the potential prediction accuracy. The simulation is validated by comparing the local density evolution of the measured data to that of the simulated data. We find that for our model the most sensitive parameters are: the source-target distribution of the pedestrian trajectories, the schedule of pedestrian appearances in the scenario and the mean free-flow velocity. Our results emphasize the need for real-life data extraction and analysis to enable predictive simulations. PMID:24386186

  10. Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Local Strain Energy for Healed Copper Film by Laser Irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Feng-Zhu; Shang, De-Guang; Ren, Chong-Gang; Sun, Yu-Juan

    2016-04-01

    Changes of total cyclic strain energy at the notch for copper film specimen were analyzed before and after laser irradiation treatment. The results showed that laser irradiation can increase total cyclic strain energy and the effect of increase is more evident for the damaged copper specimen. Based on the damage-healing mechanism, an enhancement parameter and a healing parameter were defined by the local cyclic strain energy. A new model based on local strain energy was proposed to predict residual fatigue life for the damaged copper film specimen after laser irradiation. The predicted results by the proposed model agree well with the experimental lives.

  11. Coating Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesbitt, J. A.; Gedwill, M. A.

    1984-01-01

    Hot-section gas-turbine components typically require some form of coating for oxidation and corrosion protection. Efficient use of coatings requires reliable and accurate predictions of the protective life of the coating. Currently engine inspections and component replacements are often made on a conservative basis. As a result, there is a constant need to improve and develop the life-prediction capability of metallic coatings for use in various service environments. The purpose of this present work is aimed at developing of an improved methodology for predicting metallic coating lives in an oxidizing environment and in a corrosive environment.

  12. A parametric physics based creep life prediction approach to gas turbine blade conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Marcus Edward Brockbank

    The required useful service lives of gas turbine components and parts are naturally one of the major design constraints limiting the gas turbine design space. For example, the required service life of a turbine blade limits the firing temperature in the combustor, which in turn limits the performance of the gas turbine. For a cooled turbine blade, it also determines the necessary cooling flow, which has a strong impact on the turbine efficiency. In most gas turbine design practices, the life prediction is only emphasized during or after the detailed design has been completed. Limited life prediction efforts have been made in the early design stages, but these efforts capture only a few of the necessary key factors, such as centrifugal stress. Furthermore, the early stage prediction methods are usually hard coded in the gas turbine system design tools and hidden from the system designer's view. The common failure mechanisms affecting the service life, such as creep, fatigue and oxidation, are highly sensitive to the material temperatures and/or stresses. Calculation of these temperatures and stresses requires that the geometry, material properties, and operating conditions be known; information not typically available in early stages of design. Even without awareness of the errors, the resulting inaccuracy in the life prediction may mislead the system designers when examining a design space which is bounded indirectly by the inaccurate required life constraints. Furthermore, because intensive creep lifing analysis is possible only towards the end of the design process, any errors or changes will cost the engine manufacturer significant money; money that could be saved if more comprehensive creep lifing predictions were possible in the early stages of design. A rapid, physics-based life prediction method could address this problem by enabling the system designer to investigate the design space more thoroughly and accurately. Although not meant as a final decision

  13. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  14. Application of an Energy-Based Life Prediction Model to Bithermal and Thermomechanical Fatigue

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radhakrishnan, V. M.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh; Halford, Gary R.

    1994-01-01

    The inelastic hysteresis energy applied to the material in a cycle is used as the basis for predicting nonisothermal fatigue life of a wrought cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188, from isothermal fatigue data. Damage functions that account for hold-time effects and time-dependent environmental phenomena such as oxidation and hot corrosion are proposed in terms of the inelastic hysteresis energy per cycle. The proposed damage functions are used to predict the bithermal and thermomechanical fatigue lives of Haynes 188 between 316 and 760 C from isothermal fatigue data. Predicted fatigue lives of all but two of the nonisothermal tests are within a factor of 1.5 of the experimentally observed lives.

  15. Predicting service life margins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egan, G. F.

    1971-01-01

    Margins are developed for equipment susceptible to malfunction due to excessive time or operation cycles, and for identifying limited life equipment so monitoring and replacing is accomplished before hardware failure. Method applies to hardware where design service is established and where reasonable expected usage prediction is made.

  16. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    PubMed

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the PMID:24369656

  17. Coating life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesbitt, James A.; Gedwill, Michael A.

    1985-01-01

    The investigation combines both experimental studies and numerical modeling to predict coating life in an oxidizing environment. The experimental work provides both input to and verification of two numerical models. The coatings being examined are an aluminide coating on Udimet 700 (U-700), a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) Ni-18Co-17Cr-24Al-0.2Y overlay coating also on U- 700, and bulk deposits of the LPPS NiCoCrAlY coating.

  18. Airframe life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sendeckyj, G. P.

    1992-01-01

    The required research to develop improved life prediction methods for metallic and composite structures under severe thermomechanical loading must include the development of a verified thermoinelastic fracture criterion. There has been much work in this area with many fracture criteria being proposed. Due to the lack of adequate experimental verification none of them are widely accepted. Research must also be performed to develop and implement improved thermoinelasticity theories that properly model large temperature excursions and high temperature gradient. This research is required to provide confidence in the simpler theories currently used for thermoinelastic analysis. Finally, experimental data is needed to define the behavior of and damage accumulation process in thermoinelastic materials. Special emphasis must be placed on understanding failure mode transitions under thermomechanical loading conditions.

  19. Strainrange partitioning - A total strain range version. [for creep fatigue life prediction by summing inelastic and elastic strain-range-life relations for two Ni base superalloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Saltsman, J. F.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures are presented for expressing the Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) method for creep fatigue life prediction in terms of total strain range. Inelastic and elastic strain-range - life relations are summed to give total strain-range - life relations. The life components due to inelastic strains are dealt with using conventional SRP procedures while the life components due to elastic strains are expressed as families of time-dependent terms for each type of SRP cycle. Cyclic constitutive material behavior plays an important role in establishing the elastic strain-range life relations as well as the partitioning of the inelastic strains. To apply the approach, however, it is not necessary to have to determine the magnitude of the inelastic strain range. The total strain SRP approach is evaluated and verified using two nickel base superalloys, AF2-1DA and Rene 95. Excellent agreement is demonstrated between observed and predicted cyclic lifetimes with 70 to 80 percent of the predicted lives falling within factors of two of the observed lives. The total strain-range SRP approach should be of considerable practical value to designers who are faced with creep-fatigue problems for which the inelastic strains cannot be calculated with sufficient accuracy to make reliable life predictions by the conventional inelastic strain range SRP approach.

  20. Multi-scale mechanism based life prediction of polymer matrix composites for high temperature airframe applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upadhyaya, Priyank

    A multi-scale mechanism-based life prediction model is developed for high-temperature polymer matrix composites (HTPMC) for high temperature airframe applications. In the first part of this dissertation the effect of Cloisite 20A (C20A) nano-clay compounding on the thermo-oxidative weight loss and the residual stresses due to thermal oxidation for a thermoset polymer bismaleimide (BMI) are investigated. A three-dimensional (3-D) micro-mechanics based finite element analysis (FEA) was conducted to investigate the residual stresses due to thermal oxidation using an in-house FEA code (NOVA-3D). In the second part of this dissertation, a novel numerical-experimental methodology is outlined to determine cohesive stress and damage evolution parameters for pristine as well as isothermally aged (in air) polymer matrix composites. A rate-dependent viscoelastic cohesive layer model was implemented in an in-house FEA code to simulate the delamination initiation and propagation in unidirectional polymer composites before and after aging. Double cantilever beam (DCB) experiments were conducted (at UT-Dallas) on both pristine and isothermally aged IM-7/BMI composite specimens to determine the model parameters. The J-Integral based approach was adapted to extract cohesive stresses near the crack tip. Once the damage parameters had been characterized, the test-bed FEA code employed a micromechanics based viscoelastic cohesive layer model to numerically simulate the DCB experiment. FEA simulation accurately captures the macro-scale behavior (load-displacement history) simultaneously with the micro-scale behavior (crack-growth history).

  1. Inclusions Size-based Fatigue Life Prediction Model of NiTi Alloy for Biomedical Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urbano, Marco Fabrizio; Cadelli, Andrea; Sczerzenie, Frank; Luccarelli, Pietro; Beretta, Stefano; Coda, Alberto

    2015-06-01

    Current standards consider the size and distribution of inclusions in semi-finished material, but do not place requirements on final biomedical devices made of NiTi shape memory alloys. In this paper, we analyze this by comparing the fatigue performances of NiTi superelastic wires obtained by different processes through a simple bilinear model of fatigue response in terms of strain life. The fracture surfaces of failed wires are analyzed through SEM microscopy and data regarding the presence of particles, and their morphology is recorded and analyzed using Type-I extreme value distribution. The results show a strong correlation between the fatigue limit of wires (in terms of strain) and the predicted extreme values of inclusions at fracture origin. Then, following the concept of treating the inclusions as `small cracks,' a simple relationship between fatigue limit strain range and inclusion size is proposed based on ΔKth data from the literature. The model is compared with the fatigue data obtained from the tested wires.

  2. Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Analysis of P91 Steel Based on Applied Mechanical Work Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, D. M.; Shen, M.-H. H.; Wang, D. X.; Ren, J. X.

    2015-01-01

    A creep-fatigue (CF) life prediction model and its simplified expression were developed based on the applied mechanical work density (AMWD). The foundation of this model was an integration of N- S curve. Comparisons of the model predicted fatigue lifetimes with the experimental data of load-controlled CF tests on P91 base metal and welded metal at 848 K from the reference were made and apparently illustrated that the model predictions were in a good agreement with the experimental fatigue lifetimes. In addition, the curve of the numbers of cycles to failure versus AMWD at the associated probability was deduced. A reliability model was constructed by combining the curve and the simplified life prediction model.

  3. A high temperature fatigue life prediction computer code based on the total strain version of StrainRange Partitioning (SRP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.; Saltsman, James F.

    1993-01-01

    A recently developed high-temperature fatigue life prediction computer code is presented and an example of its usage given. The code discussed is based on the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP). Included in this code are procedures for characterizing the creep-fatigue durability behavior of an alloy according to TS-SRP guidelines and predicting cyclic life for complex cycle types for both isothermal and thermomechanical conditions. A reasonably extensive materials properties database is included with the code.

  4. Developing a support vector machine based QSPR model for prediction of half-life of some herbicides.

    PubMed

    Samghani, Kobra; HosseinFatemi, Mohammad

    2016-07-01

    The half-life (t1/2) of 58 herbicides were modeled by quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) based molecular structure descriptors. After calculation and the screening of a large number of molecular descriptors, the most relevant those ones selected by stepwise multiple linear regression were used for developing linear and nonlinear models which developed by using multiple linear regression and support vector machine, respectively. Comparison between statistical parameters of linear and nonlinear models indicates the suitability of SVM over MLR model for predicting the half-life of herbicides. The statistical parameters of R(2) and standard error for training set of SVM model were; 0.96 and 0.087, respectively, and were 0.93 and 0.092 for the test set. The SVM model was evaluated by leave one out cross validation test, which its result indicates the robustness and predictability of the model. The established SVM model was used for predicting the half-life of other herbicides that are located in the applicability domain of model that were determined via leverage approach. The results of this study indicate that the relationship among selected molecular descriptors and herbicide's half-life is non-linear. These results emphases that the process of degradation of herbicides in the environment is very complex and can be affected by various environmental and structural features, therefore simple linear model cannot be able to successfully predict it. PMID:26970881

  5. Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

    2003-01-01

    The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

  6. LCF behavior and life prediction method of a single crystal nickel-based superalloy at high temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhihua; Yu, Huichen; Dong, Chengli

    2015-12-01

    Low cycle fatigue tests were conducted on the single crystal nickel-based superalloy, DD6, with different crystallographic orientations (i.e., [001], [011], and [111]) and strain dwell types (i.e., tensile, compressive, and balanced types) at a certain high temperature. Given the material anisotropy and mean stress, both orientation factor and stress range were introduced to the Smith,Watson, and Topper (SWT) stress model to predict the fatigue life. Experimental results indicated that the fatigue properties of DD6 depend on both crystallographic orientation and loading types. The fatigue life of the tensile, compressive, and balanced strain dwell tests are shorter than those of continuous cycling tests without strain dwell because of the important creep effect. The predicted results of the proposed modified SWT stress method agree well with the experimental data.

  7. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-07-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  8. V-Notched Bar Creep Life Prediction: GH3536 Ni-Based Superalloy Under Multiaxial Stress State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D. X.; Wang, J. P.; Wen, Z. X.; Liu, D. S.; Yue, Z. F.

    2016-05-01

    In this study, creep experiments on smooth and circumferential V-type notched round bars were conducted in GH3536 Ni-based superalloy at 750 °C to identify notch strengthening effect in notched specimens. FE analysis was carried out, coupled with continuum damage mechanics (CDM), to analyze stress distribution and damage evolution under multiaxial stress state. The creep deformation of smooth specimens and the rupture life of both smooth and notched specimens showed good agreement between experimental results and FE analysis predictions; the creep rupture life for the notched specimen was successfully predicted via the "skeletal point" concept. Both creep damage analysis and the observed fracture morphology suggest that creep rupture started first at the root in the V-type notched specimens, and shifted to the region close to the notch root when the notch was relatively shallow compared to U-type notched specimens.

  9. A Microstructure-Based Time-Dependent Crack Growth Model for Life and Reliability Prediction of Turbopropulsion Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Kwai S.; Enright, Michael P.; Moody, Jonathan; Fitch, Simeon H. K.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this investigation was to develop an innovative methodology for life and reliability prediction of hot-section components in advanced turbopropulsion systems. A set of generic microstructure-based time-dependent crack growth (TDCG) models was developed and used to assess the sources of material variability due to microstructure and material parameters such as grain size, activation energy, and crack growth threshold for TDCG. A comparison of model predictions and experimental data obtained in air and in vacuum suggests that oxidation is responsible for higher crack growth rates at high temperatures, low frequencies, and long dwell times, but oxidation can also induce higher crack growth thresholds (Δ K th or K th) under certain conditions. Using the enhanced risk analysis tool and material constants calibrated to IN 718 data, the effect of TDCG on the risk of fracture in turboengine components was demonstrated for a generic rotor design and a realistic mission profile using the DARWIN® probabilistic life-prediction code. The results of this investigation confirmed that TDCG and cycle-dependent crack growth in IN 718 can be treated by a simple summation of the crack increments over a mission. For the temperatures considered, TDCG in IN 718 can be considered as a K-controlled or a diffusion-controlled oxidation-induced degradation process. This methodology provides a pathway for evaluating microstructural effects on multiple damage modes in hot-section components.

  10. An Improved Wavelet Packet-Chaos Model for Life Prediction of Space Relays Based on Volterra Series

    PubMed Central

    Li, Lingling; Han, Ye; Chen, Wenyuan; Lv, Congmin; Sun, Dongwang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an improved algorithm of wavelet packet-chaos model for life prediction of space relays based on volterra series is proposed. In the proposed method, the high and low frequency time sequence components of performance parameters are obtained by employing the improved wavelet packet transform to decompose the performance parameters of the relay into multiple scales. Then the optimization algorithm of parameters in volterra series is improved, and is used to construct a chaotic forecasting model for the high and low frequency time sequence components gained by the wavelet packet transform. At last, the chaotic forecasting results of the high and low frequency components are combined by taking the wavelet packet reconstruction approach, so as to predict the lifetime of the studied space relay. The algorithm can predict the life curve of the relay accurately and reflect the characteristics of the relay performance with sufficient accuracy. The proposed method is validated via a case study of a space relay. PMID:27355578

  11. A co-training-based approach for prediction of remaining useful life utilizing both failure and suspension data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Kim, Taejin; Wang, Pingfeng

    2015-10-01

    Traditional data-driven prognostics often requires some amount of failure data for the offline training in order to achieve good accuracy for the online prediction. Failure data refer to condition monitoring data collected from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till the occurrence of its failure. However, in many engineered systems, failure data are fairly expensive and time-consuming to obtain while suspension data are readily available. Suspension data refer to condition monitoring data acquired from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till planned inspection or maintenance when the system is taken out of service. In such cases, it becomes essentially critical to utilize suspension data which may carry rich information regarding the degradation trend and help achieve more accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. To this end, this paper proposes a co-training-based data-driven prognostic approach, denoted by COPROG, which uses two data-driven algorithms with each predicting RULs of suspension units for the other. After a suspension unit is chosen and its RUL is predicted by an individual algorithm, it becomes a virtual failure unit that is added to the training data set of the other individual algorithm. Results obtained from two case studies suggest that COPROG gives more accurate RUL prediction, as compared to any individual algorithm with no use of suspension data, and that COPROG can effectively exploit suspension data to improve the prognostic accuracy.

  12. Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

    2016-08-01

    Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

  13. Prediction of the Maximum Temperature for Life Based on the Stability of Metabolites to Decomposition in Water

    PubMed Central

    Bains, William; Xiao, Yao; Yu, Changyong

    2015-01-01

    The components of life must survive in a cell long enough to perform their function in that cell. Because the rate of attack by water increases with temperature, we can, in principle, predict a maximum temperature above which an active terrestrial metabolism cannot function by analysis of the decomposition rates of the components of life, and comparison of those rates with the metabolites’ minimum metabolic half-lives. The present study is a first step in this direction, providing an analytical framework and method, and analyzing the stability of 63 small molecule metabolites based on literature data. Assuming that attack by water follows a first order rate equation, we extracted decomposition rate constants from literature data and estimated their statistical reliability. The resulting rate equations were then used to give a measure of confidence in the half-life of the metabolite concerned at different temperatures. There is little reliable data on metabolite decomposition or hydrolysis rates in the literature, the data is mostly confined to a small number of classes of chemicals, and the data available are sometimes mutually contradictory because of varying reaction conditions. However, a preliminary analysis suggests that terrestrial biochemistry is limited to environments below ~150–180 °C. We comment briefly on why pressure is likely to have a small effect on this. PMID:25821932

  14. Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Using the Finite Element Based Integrated Design Program (CARES/Creep)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1997-01-01

    The desirable properties of ceramics at high temperatures have generated interest in their use for structural applications such as in advanced turbine systems. Design lives for such systems can exceed 10,000 hours. Such long life requirements necessitate subjecting the components to relatively low stresses. The combination of high temperatures and low stresses typically places failure for monolithic ceramics in the creep regime. The objective of this work is to present a design methodology for predicting the lifetimes of structural components subjected to multiaxial creep loading. This methodology utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the time varying creep stress distributions (stress relaxation). In this methodology, the creep life of a component is divided into short time steps, during which, the stress and strain distributions are assumed constant. The damage, D, is calculated for each time step based on a modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. For components subjected to predominantly tensile loading, failure is assumed to occur when the normalized accumulated damage at any point in the component is greater than or equal to unity.

  15. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2013-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

  16. Predicting the remaining service life of concrete

    SciTech Connect

    Clifton, J.F.

    1991-11-01

    Nuclear power plants are providing, currently, about 17 percent of the U.S. electricity and many of these plants are approaching their licensed life of 40 years. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are carrying out a program to develop a methodology for assessing the remaining safe-life of the concrete components and structures in nuclear power plants. This program has the overall objective of identifying potential structural safety issues, as well as acceptance criteria, for use in evaluations of nuclear power plants for continued service. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is contributing to this program by identifying and analyzing methods for predicting the remaining life of in-service concrete materials. This report examines the basis for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials of nuclear power facilities. Methods for predicting the service life of new and in-service concrete materials are analyzed. These methods include (1) estimates based on experience, (2) comparison of performance, (3) accelerated testing, (4) stochastic methods, and (5) mathematical modeling. New approaches for predicting the remaining service lives of concrete materials are proposed and recommendations for their further development given. Degradation processes are discussed based on considerations of their mechanisms, likelihood of occurrence, manifestations, and detection. They include corrosion, sulfate attack, alkali-aggregate reactions, frost attack, leaching, radiation, salt crystallization, and microbiological attack.

  17. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Hartle, M. S.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes work performed to determine the predominat modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consisted of a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. The work was divided into 3 technical tasks. The primary failure mode to be addressed was loss of the zirconia layer through spalling. Experiments showed that oxidation of the bond coat is a significant contributor to coating failure. It was evident from the test results that the species of oxide scale initially formed on the bond coat plays a role in coating degradation and failure. It was also shown that elevated temperature creep of the bond coat plays a role in coating failure. An empirical model was developed for predicting the test life of specimens with selected coating, specimen, and test condition variations. In the second task, a coating life prediction model was developed based on the data from Task 1 experiments, results from thermomechanical experiments performed as part of Task 2, and finite element analyses of the TBC system during thermal cycles. The third and final task attempted to verify the validity of the model developed in Task 2. This was done by using the model to predict the test lives of several coating variations and specimen geometries, then comparing these predicted lives to experimentally determined test lives. It was found that the model correctly predicts trends, but that additional refinement is needed to accurately predict coating life.

  18. Life prediction and constitutive behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.

    1983-01-01

    One of the primary drivers that prompted the initiation of the hot section technology (HOST) program was the recognized need for improved cyclic durability of costly hot section components. All too frequently, fatigue in one form or another was directly responsible for the less than desired durability, and prospects for the future weren't going to improve unless a significant effort was mounted to increase our knowledge and understanding of the elements governing cyclic crack initiation and propagation lifetime. Certainly one of the important factors is the ability to perform accurate structural stress-strain analyses on a routine basis to determine the magnitudes of the localized stresses and strains since it is these localized conditions that govern the initiation and crack growth processes. Developing the ability to more accurately predict crack initiation lifetimes and cyclic crack growth rates for the complex loading conditions found in turbine engine hot sections is of course the ultimate goal of the life prediction research efforts. It has been found convenient to divide the research efforts into those dealing with nominally isotropic and anisotropic alloys; the latter for application to directionally solidified and single crystal turbine blades.

  19. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  20. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J.; Sheffler, K.

    1984-01-01

    The objective of this program is to develop an integrated life prediction model accounting for all potential life-limiting Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) degradation and failure modes including spallation resulting from cyclic thermal stress, oxidative degradation, hot corrosion, erosion, and foreign object damage (FOD). The mechanisms and relative importance of the various degradation and failure modes will be determined, and the methodology to predict predominant mode failure life in turbine airfoil application will be developed and verified. An empirically based correlative model relating coating life to parametrically expressed driving forces such as temperature and stress will be employed. The two-layer TBC system being investigated, designated PWA264, currently is in commercial aircraft revenue service. It consists of an inner low pressure chamber plasma-sprayed NiCoCrAlY metallic bond coat underlayer (4 to 6 mils) and an outer air plasma-sprayed 7 w/o Y2O3-ZrO2 (8 to 12 mils) ceramic top layer.

  1. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J. T.

    1986-01-01

    A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

  2. Life prediction: A case for multidisciplinary research

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, R.P.

    1997-12-01

    Concerns with aging infrastructure worldwide and with the life-cycle costs and management of engineered systems have placed increased emphasis on the development of methods for life prediction. To be effective as true predictors of future performance (i.e., to provide accurate estimates beyond the range employed in the development of supporting data), such methods must be built upon mechanistic models that capture the functional dependence on all of the key external and internal variables. The development of these methods argues strongly for multidisciplinary research that integrates mechanistic understanding with probability analysis. In this paper, a mechanistically based probability approach to life prediction (versus the more traditional statistically based parametric approach) and the processes for model development are outlined to provide a framework for discussion. The use of a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to develop mechanistic understanding and to model material response is illustrated through examples on crack growth in a high-strength steel. The need for multidisciplinary research that broadens the perspective from testing to testing and materials is discussed.

  3. Life prediction systems for critical rotating components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, Susan E.

    1993-01-01

    With the advent of advanced materials in rotating gas turbine engine components, the methodologies for life prediction of these parts must also increase in sophistication and capability. Pratt & Whitney's view of generic requirements for composite component life prediction systems are presented, efforts underway to develop these systems are discussed, and industry participation in key areas requiring development is solicited.

  4. A crystal plasticity based methodology for modeling fatigue crack initiation and estimating material coefficients to predict fatigue crack initiation life at micro, nano and macro scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voothaluru, Rohit

    Fatigue failure is a dominant mechanism that governs the failure of components and structures in many engineering applications. In conventional engineering applications due to the design specifications, a significant proportion of the fatigue life is spent in the crack initiation phase. In spite of the large number of works addressing fatigue life modeling, the problem of modeling crack initiation life still remains a major challenge. In this work, a novel computational methodology based upon crystal plasticity formulations has been developed to predict crack initiation life at macro, micro and nano length scales. The crystal plasticity based constitutive model has been employed to model the micromechanical deformation and damage accumulation under cyclic loading in polycrystalline metals. This work provides a first of its kind, fundamental basis for employing crystal plasticity formulations for evaluating a quantifiable estimate of fatigue crack initiation life. A semi-empirical energy based fatigue crack initiation criterion s employed to allow for accurate modeling of the underlying microstructural phenomenon leading to the initiation of cracks at different material length scales. The results of the fatigue crack initiation life prediction in case of polycrystalline metals such as Copper and Nickel demonstrated that the crack initiation life prediction using the proposed methodology yielded an improvement of more than 30% in comparison to the existing continuum methodologies for fatigue crack initiation prediction and more than 80% improvement compared to the existing analytical models. The computational methodology developed in this work also provides a first of its kind technique to evaluate the fatigue crack initiation coefficient in the form of energy dissipation coefficient that can be used at varying length scales. The methodology and the computational framework proposed in this work, are developed such that experimental inputs are used to improve

  5. Chemiluminescent prediction of service life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hassell, J. A.; Mendenhall, G. D.; Nathan, R. A.

    1976-01-01

    Technique can be used to predict polymer degradation under actual expected-use conditions, without imposing artificial conditions. Smooth or linear correlations are obtained between chemiluminescence and physical properties of purified polymer gums.

  6. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meier, Susan M.; Nissley, David M.; Sheffler, Keith D.; Cruse, Thomas A.

    1991-01-01

    A thermal barrier coated (TBC) turbine component design system, including an accurate TBC life prediction model, is needed to realize the full potential of available TBC engine performance and/or durability benefits. The objective of this work, which was sponsored in part by NASA, was to generate a life prediction model for electron beam - physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) zirconia TBC. Specific results include EB-PVD zirconia mechanical and physical properties, coating adherence strength measurements, interfacial oxide growth characteristics, quantitative cyclic thermal spallation life data, and a spallation life model.

  7. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  8. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Cook, T. S.; Kim, K. S.

    1986-01-01

    This is the second annual report of the first 3-year phase of a 2-phase, 5-year program. The objectives of the first phase are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. Task I was to evaluate TBC failure mechanisms. Both bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep have been identified as contributors to TBC failure. Key property determinations have also been made for the bond coat and the top coat, including tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus, and coefficient of thermal expansion. Task II is to develop TBC life prediction models for the predominant failure modes. These models will be developed based on the results of thermmechanical experiments and finite element analysis. The thermomechanical experiments have been defined and testing initiated. Finite element models have also been developed to handle TBCs and are being utilized to evaluate different TBC failure regimes.

  9. Lithium-ion battery state of health monitoring and remaining useful life prediction based on support vector regression-particle filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Hancheng; Jin, Xiaoning; Lou, Yangbing; Wang, Changhong

    2014-12-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are used as the main power source in many electronic and electrical devices. In particular, with the growth in battery-powered electric vehicle development, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle systems. In order to provide timely maintenance and replacement of battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable and accurate battery health diagnostic that takes a prognostic approach. Therefore, this paper focuses on two main methods to determine a battery's health: (1) Battery State-of-Health (SOH) monitoring and (2) Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Both of these are calculated by using a filter algorithm known as the Support Vector Regression-Particle Filter (SVR-PF). Models for battery SOH monitoring based on SVR-PF are developed with novel capacity degradation parameters introduced to determine battery health in real time. Moreover, the RUL prediction model is proposed, which is able to provide the RUL value and update the RUL probability distribution to the End-of-Life cycle. Results for both methods are presented, showing that the proposed SOH monitoring and RUL prediction methods have good performance and that the SVR-PF has better monitoring and prediction capability than the standard particle filter (PF).

  10. Benchmark notch test for life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Domas, P. A.; Sharpe, W. N.; Ward, M.; Yau, J. F.

    1982-01-01

    The laser Interferometric Strain Displacement Gage (ISDG) was used to measure local strains in notched Inconel 718 test bars subjected to six different load histories at 649 C (1200 F) and including effects of tensile and compressive hold periods. The measurements were compared to simplified Neuber notch analysis predictions of notch root stress and strain. The actual strains incurred at the root of a discontinuity in cyclically loaded test samples subjected to inelastic deformation at high temperature where creep deformations readily occur were determined. The steady state cyclic, stress-strain response at the root of the discontinuity was analyzed. Flat, double notched uniaxially loaded fatigue specimens manufactured from the nickel base, superalloy Inconel 718 were used. The ISDG was used to obtain cycle by cycle recordings of notch root strain during continuous and hold time cycling at 649 C. Comparisons to Neuber and finite element model analyses were made. The results obtained provide a benchmark data set in high technology design where notch fatigue life is the predominant component service life limitation.

  11. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.

    1984-01-01

    In order to fully exploit thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) on turbine components and achieve the maximum performance benefit, the knowledge and understanding of TBC failure mechanisms must be increased and the means to predict coating life developed. The proposed program will determine the predominant modes of TBC system degradation and then develop and verify life prediction models accounting for those degradation modes. The successful completion of the program will have dual benefits: the ability to take advantage of the performance benefits offered by TBCs, and a sounder basis for making future improvements in coating behavior.

  12. SSME main combustion chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, R. T.; Fryk, E. E.; Newell, J. F.

    1983-01-01

    Typically, low cycle fatigue life is a function of the cyclic strain range, the material properties, and the operating temperature. The reusable life is normally defined by the number of strain cycles that can be accrued before severe material degradation occurs. Reusable life is normally signified by the initiation or propagation of surface cracks. Hot-fire testing of channel wall combustors has shown significant mid-channel wall thinning or deformation during accrued cyclic testing. This phenomenon is termed cyclic-creep and appears to be significantly accelerated at elevated surface temperatures. This failure mode was analytically modelled. The cyclic life of the baseline SSME-MCC based on measured calorimeter heat transfer data, and the life sensitivity of local hot spots caused by injector effects were determined. Four life enhanced designs were assessed.

  13. A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

  14. Life prediction technologies for aeronautical propulsion systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1990-01-01

    Fatigue and fracture problems continue to occur in aeronautical gas turbine engines. Components whose useful life is limited by these failure modes include turbine hot-section blades, vanes, and disks. Safety considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that catastrophic failures be avoided, while economic considerations dictate that noncatastrophic failures occur as infrequently as possible. Therefore, the decision in design is making the tradeoff between engine performance and durability. LeRC has contributed to the aeropropulsion industry in the area of life prediction technology for over 30 years, developing creep and fatigue life prediction methodologies for hot-section materials. At the present time, emphasis is being placed on the development of methods capable of handling both thermal and mechanical fatigue under severe environments. Recent accomplishments include the development of more accurate creep-fatigue life prediction methods such as the total strain version of LeRC's strain-range partitioning (SRP) and the HOST-developed cyclic damage accumulation (CDA) model. Other examples include the development of a more accurate cumulative fatigue damage rule - the double damage curve approach (DDCA), which provides greatly improved accuracy in comparison with usual cumulative fatigue design rules. Other accomplishments in the area of high-temperature fatigue crack growth may also be mentioned. Finally, we are looking to the future and are beginning to do research on the advanced methods which will be required for development of advanced materials and propulsion systems over the next 10-20 years.

  15. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, J. T.; Sheffler, K. D.

    1986-01-01

    The objective of this program is to establish a methodology to predict Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involves experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. The coating being studied is a flight qualified two layer system, designated PWA 264, consisting of a nominal ten mil layer of seven percent yttria partially stabilized zirconia plasma deposited over a nominal five mil layer of low pressure plasma deposited NiCoCrAlY. Thermal barrier coating degradation modes being investigated include: thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, erosion, hot corrosion, and foreign object damage.

  16. Multiscale Fatigue Life Prediction for Composite Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Yarrington, Phillip W.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2012-01-01

    Fatigue life prediction capabilities have been incorporated into the HyperSizer Composite Analysis and Structural Sizing Software. The fatigue damage model is introduced at the fiber/matrix constituent scale through HyperSizer s coupling with NASA s MAC/GMC micromechanics software. This enables prediction of the micro scale damage progression throughout stiffened and sandwich panels as a function of cycles leading ultimately to simulated panel failure. The fatigue model implementation uses a cycle jumping technique such that, rather than applying a specified number of additional cycles, a specified local damage increment is specified and the number of additional cycles to reach this damage increment is calculated. In this way, the effect of stress redistribution due to damage-induced stiffness change is captured, but the fatigue simulations remain computationally efficient. The model is compared to experimental fatigue life data for two composite facesheet/foam core sandwich panels, demonstrating very good agreement.

  17. Life prediction of elastomeric and thermoplastic components

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, A.

    1994-12-31

    Life prediction tests for polymeric materials have been in use for a considerable period of time. However there are still fundamental problems with their usage and interpretation in terms of engineering performance. In particular, it is not yet in general possible to relate the rate of change of physical properties that arise as a consequence of chemical aging to the rate of change in the underlying chemical structure or morphology. Also, different physical properties may change at different rates and these materials are generally non-linear. This renders accelerated life prediction testing potentially unreliable. This paper reviews this general problem area and discusses advances which need to be made with respect to the roles of the permeation of fluids, mechanical fatigue crack growth and time dependent changes. Illustrative examples are discussed of both thermoplastics and crosslinked elastomers. Finally, a general scheme is discussed for future research in this area, related to the development of interactive numerical modelling.

  18. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

    2000-01-01

    Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

  19. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheffler, K. D.; Demasi, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

  20. Quality of life for patients with major depression in Taiwan:A model-based study of predictive factors.

    PubMed

    Chung, Lyinn; Pan, Ay-Woan; Hsiung, Ping-Chuan

    2009-07-30

    The 'quality of life' (QOL) for patients suffering from depression is affected by four factors: stigma, social support, mastery and depressive symptoms. The purpose of this study was to develop and empirically validate an appropriate path model for the QOL of patients suffering from major depression. We recruited a total of 237 patients suffering from depression from the outpatient psychiatry department of a university-affiliated hospital in northern Taiwan. The sample was predominantly female (74.3%), had at least a high school level of education (79.7%), had a mean age of 46.95 years, and were living with their families (87.3%). Path analysis was used to identify the 'best fit' model for the QOL of the patients in four domains: physical, psychological, social and environmental. The key determinant for all QOL domains is found to be the intensity of the depressive symptoms, with social support also affecting QOL both directly and indirectly, whilst stigma is found to have an indirect effect on QOL mediated by the intensity of the depressive symptoms, mastery and social support. We conclude that more effective improvements in all aspects of QOL for patients suffering from depression could be achieved by the provision of comprehensive intervention programs aimed at reducing stigma, as well as placing greater emphasis on a reduction in the patients' depressive symptoms, and enhancements to their social support and mastery. PMID:19467715

  1. Predictive Service Life Tests for Roofing Membranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, David M.; Cash, Carl G.; Davies, Arthur G.

    2002-09-01

    The average service life of roofing membranes used in low-slope applications on U.S. Army buildings is estimated to be considerably shorter than the industry-presumed 20-year design life, even when installers carefully adhere to the latest guide specifications. This problem is due in large part to market-driven product development cycles, which do not include time for long-term field testing. To reduce delivery costs, contractors may provide untested, interior membranes in place of ones proven satisfactory in long-term service. Federal procurement regulations require that roofing systems and components be selected according to desired properties and generic type, not brand name. The problem is that a material certified to have satisfactory properties at installation time will not necessarily retain those properties in service. The overall objective of this research is to develop a testing program that can be executed in a matter of weeks to adequately predict a membrane's long-term performance in service. This report details accelerated aging tests of 12 popular membrane materials in the laboratory, and describes outdoor experiment stations set up for long-term exposure tests of those same membranes. The laboratory results will later be correlated with the outdoor test results to develop performance models and predictive service life tests.

  2. A. Palmgren Revisited: A Basis for Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    1997-01-01

    Bearing technology, as well as the bearing industry, began to develop with the invention of the bicycle in the 1850's. At the same time, high-quality steel was made possible by the Bessemer process. In 1881, H. Hertz published his contact stress analysis. By 1902, R. Stribeck had published his work based on Hertz theory to calculate the maximum load of a radially loaded ball bearing. By 1920, all of the rolling bearing types used today were being manufactured. AISI 52100 bearing steel became the material of choice for these bearings. Beginning in 1918, engineers directed their attention to predicting the lives of these bearings. In 1924, A. Palmgren published a paper outlining his approach to bearing life prediction. This paper was the basis for the Lundberg-Palmgren life theory published in 1947. A critical review of the 1924 Palmgren paper is presented here together with a discussion of its effect on bearing life prediction.

  3. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

    1985-01-01

    The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

  4. Theoretical Foundation for Mechanical Products Service Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konovodov, V. V.; Valentov, A. V.; Lafetova, T. V.; Basalaev, M. N.

    2016-04-01

    The article presents theoretical foundations for prediction of service life of mechanical products, based on the fatigue theory and fatigue limit. Ultimate amplitude and ultimate stress diagrams are presented. Wohler curve, characterizing material durability, is constructed on the results of the tests.

  5. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P.; Diener, Ed

    2016-01-01

    Background Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. Methods To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as a predictor of relationship, adjustment, self worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilized multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Results Early adolescent positive affect predicted less relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers), healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. Conclusions The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. PMID:27075545

  6. Life prediction and constitutive behavior: Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.

    1982-01-01

    The evolution of programs to investigate high temperature consititutive behavior and develop cyclic life prediction methods is reviewed. Contracts granted for developing and verifying workable engineering methods for the calculation, in advance of service, of the local stress-strain response at the critical life governing location in typical hot section components as well as the resultant cyclic crack initiation and crack growth lifetimes are listed. The Langley fatigue facility is being upgraded to include: (1) a servocontrolled testing machine for high temperature crack growth; (2) three servocontrolled tension/torsion machines for biaxial studies; (3) a HOST/satellite computer for data acquisition, processing, storage, and retrieval; and (4) HCV/LCF machines for cumulative damage studies.

  7. Fatigue life prediction of bonded primary joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knauss, J. F.

    1979-01-01

    The validation of a proposed fatigue life prediction methodology was sought through the use of aluminum butt and scarf joint and graphite/epoxy butt joint specimens in a constant amplitude fatigue environment. The structural properties of the HYSOL 9313 adhesive system were obtained by mechanical test of molded heat adhesive specimens. Aluminum contoured double cantilever beam specimens were used to generate crack velocity versus stress intensity factor data. The specific objectives were: (1) to ascertain the feasibility of predicting fatigue failure of an adhesive in a primary bonded composite structure by incorporating linear elastic crack growth behavior; and (2) to ascertain if acoustic emission and/or compliance measurement techniques can be used to detect flaws.

  8. Discrete statistical model of fatigue crack growth in a Ni-base superalloy, capable of life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyd-Lee, Ashley; King, Julia

    1992-07-01

    A discrete statistical model of fatigue crack growth in a nickel base superalloy Waspaloy, which is quantitative from the start of the short crack regime to failure, is presented. Instantaneous crack growth rate distributions and persistence of arrest distributions are used to compute fatigue lives and worst case scenarios without extrapolation. The basis of the model is non-material specific, it provides an improved method of analyzing crack growth rate data. For Waspaloy, the model shows the importance of good bulk fatigue crack growth resistance to resist early short fatigue crack growth and the importance of maximizing crack arrest both by the presence of a proportion of small grains and by maximizing grain boundary corrugation.

  9. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

  10. Thermomechanical fatigue, oxidation, and Creep: Part II. Life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neu, R. W.; Sehitoglu, Huseyin

    1989-09-01

    A life prediction model is developed for crack nucleation and early crack growth based on fatigue, environment (oxidation), and creep damage. The model handles different strain-temperature phasings (i.e., in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical fatigue, isothermal fatigue, and others, including nonproportional phasings). Fatigue life predictions compare favorably with experiments in 1070 steel for a wide range of test conditions and strain-temperature phasings. An oxide growth (oxide damage) model is based on the repeated microrupture process of oxide observed from microscopic measurements. A creep damage expression, which is stress-based, is coupled with a unified constitutive equation. A set of interrupted tests was performed to provide valuable damage progression information. Tests were performed in air and in helium atmospheres to isolate creep damage from oxidation damage.

  11. Practical theories for service life prediction of critical aerospace structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Monaghan, Richard C.; Jackson, Raymond H.

    1992-01-01

    A new second-order theory was developed for predicting the service lives of aerospace structural components. The predictions based on this new theory were compared with those based on the Ko first-order theory and the classical theory of service life predictions. The new theory gives very accurate service life predictions. An equivalent constant-amplitude stress cycle method was proposed for representing the random load spectrum for crack growth calculations. This method predicts the most conservative service life. The proposed use of minimum detectable crack size, instead of proof load established crack size as an initial crack size for crack growth calculations, could give a more realistic service life.

  12. Predicting Later-Life Outcomes of Early-Life Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: In utero exposure of the fetus to a stressor can lead to disease in later life. Epigenetic mechanisms are likely mediators of later-life expression of early-life events.Objectives: We examined the current state of understanding of later-life diseases resulting from ea...

  13. Space shuttle nonmetallic materials age life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendenhall, G. D.; Hassell, J. A.; Nathan, R. A.

    1975-01-01

    The chemiluminescence from samples of polybutadiene, Viton, Teflon, Silicone, PL 731 Adhesive, and SP 296 Boron-Epoxy composite was measured at temperatures from 25 to 150 C. Excellent correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and temperature. These correlations serve to validate accelerated aging tests (at elevated temperatures) designed to predict service life at lower temperatures. In most cases, smooth or linear correlations were obtained between chemiluminescence and physical properties of purified polymer gums, including the tensile strength, viscosity, and loss tangent. The latter is a complex function of certain polymer properties. Data were obtained with far greater ease by the chemiluminescence technique than by the conventional methods of study. The chemiluminescence from the Teflon (Halon) samples was discovered to arise from trace amounts of impurities, which were undetectable by conventional, destructive analysis of the sample.

  14. Toughened ceramics life prediction. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Salem, J.A.; Choi, S.R.; Pawlik, R.J.

    1998-02-01

    The objective of this research was to understand the room temperature and high temperature behavior of brittle materials such as in situ toughened ceramics, glasses and intermetallics as the basis for developing life prediction and test methodologies. A major objective was to understand the relationship between microstructure and mechanical behavior within the bounds of a limited number of materials. A second major objective was to determine the behavior as a function of time and temperature. Specifically, the room temperature and elevated strength and reliability, the fracture toughness, slow crack growth and the creep behavior. These results will provide input for parallel materials development and design methodology programs. Resultant design codes will be verified. A summary of the accomplishments that occurred under this program is given.

  15. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  16. Fatigue life and crack growth prediction methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Everett, Richard A., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model and life-prediction code to predict fatigue crack growth and fatigue lives of metallic materials. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective stress-intensity factor range (Delta K(sub eff)) under constant amplitude loading. Some modifications to the Delta K(sub eff)-rate relations were needed in the near threshold regime to fit small-crackgrowth rate behavior and endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue lives, for several aluminum and titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  17. Fatigue life and crack growth prediction methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model and life-prediction code to predict fatigue crack growth and fatigue lives of metallic materials are reviewed. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta(K(sub eff))) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta(K(sub eff))-rate relations were needed in the near threshold regime to fit small-crack growth rate behavior and endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue lives, for several aluminum and titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  18. Lamp-life predictive model for avionics backlights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, Richard P.; Nelson, Leonard Y.

    1998-09-01

    Active Matrix Liquid Crystal Displays (AMLCDs) used in avionics applications require high luminance, high efficacy, and long-life backlights. Currently, fluorescent lamps are the favored light sources for these high performance avionics backlights. Their spectral characteristics and high electrical efficiency are well suited to illuminating AMLCDs used in avionics applications. Fluorescent lamps, however, suffer gradual reduction in luminance output caused by various degradation mechanisms. Korry Electronics Co. recently developed a mathematical model for predicting fluorescent lamp life. The model's basis is the well characterized exponential decay of the phosphor output. The primary luminance degradation mechanism of a fluorescent lamp is related to the arc discharge. Consequently, phosphor depreciation is proportional to the discharge arc power divided by the phosphor surface area. This 'wall loading' is a parameter in the computer model developed to extrapolate long-term luminance performance. Our model predicts a rapidly increasing decay rate of the lamp output as the input power is increased to sustain constant luminance. Eventually, a run-away condition occurs -- lamp arc power must be increased by unrealistically large factors (greater than 5x) to maintain the required luminance output. This condition represents the end of the useful lamp life. The lamp life model requires the definition of several key parameters in order to accurately predict the useful lamp life of an avionics backlight. These important factors include the construction of the lamp, lamp arc power, a decay constant based on the phosphor loading, and the operational profile. Based on the above-mentioned factors, our model approximates the useful lamp life of an avionics backlight using fluorescent lamp technology. Comparisons between calculated and experimental lamp depreciation are presented.

  19. The evolution of predictive adaptive responses in human life history

    PubMed Central

    Nettle, Daniel; Frankenhuis, Willem E.; Rickard, Ian J.

    2013-01-01

    Many studies in humans have shown that adverse experience in early life is associated with accelerated reproductive timing, and there is comparative evidence for similar effects in other animals. There are two different classes of adaptive explanation for associations between early-life adversity and accelerated reproduction, both based on the idea of predictive adaptive responses (PARs). According to external PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity provides a ‘weather forecast’ of the environmental conditions into which the individual will mature, and it is adaptive for the individual to develop an appropriate phenotype for this anticipated environment. In internal PAR hypotheses, early-life adversity has a lasting negative impact on the individual's somatic state, such that her health is likely to fail more rapidly as she gets older, and there is an advantage to adjusting her reproductive schedule accordingly. We use a model of fluctuating environments to derive evolveability conditions for acceleration of reproductive timing in response to early-life adversity in a long-lived organism. For acceleration to evolve via the external PAR process, early-life cues must have a high degree of validity and the level of annual autocorrelation in the individual's environment must be almost perfect. For acceleration to evolve via the internal PAR process requires that early-life experience must determine a significant fraction of the variance in survival prospects in adulthood. The two processes are not mutually exclusive, and mechanisms for calibrating reproductive timing on the basis of early experience could evolve through a combination of the predictive value of early-life adversity for the later environment and its negative impact on somatic state. PMID:23843395

  20. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demasi, Jeanine T.; Ortiz, Milton

    1989-01-01

    The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

  1. Life prediction for bridged fatigue cracks

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, B.N.

    1994-08-01

    One of the more promising classes of composites touted for high temperature applications, and certainly the most available, is that of relatively brittle matrices, either ceramic or intermetallic, reinforced by strong, aligned, continuous fibers. Under cyclic loading in the fiber direction, these materials develop matrix cracks that often run perpendicular to the fibers, while the fibers remain intact in the crack wake, supplying bridging tractions across the fracture surfaces. The bridging tractions shield the crack tip from the applied load, dramatically reducing the crack velocity from that expected in an unreinforced material subjected to the same value, {Delta}K{sub a}, of the cyclic applied stress intensity factor. An important issue in reliability is the prediction of the growth rates of the bridged cracks. The growth rates of matrix fatigue cracks bridged by sliding fibers are now commonly predicted by models based on the micromechanics of frictional interfaces. However, there exist many reasons, both theoretical and experimental, for suspecting that the most popular micromechanical models are probably wrong in detail in the context of fatigue cracks. Furthermore, a review of crack growth data reveals that the validity of the micromechanics-based predictive model has never been tested and may never be tested. In this paper, two alternative approaches are suggested to the engineering problem of predicting the growth rates of bridged cracks without explicit recourse to micromechanics. Instead, it is shown that the material properties required to analyze bridging effects can be deduced directly from crack growth data. Some experiments are proposed to test the validity of the proposals.

  2. Viscoelastic behavior and life-time predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillard, D. A.; Brinson, H. F.

    1985-01-01

    Fiber reinforced plastics were considered for many structural applications in automotive, aerospace and other industries. A major concern was and remains the failure modes associated with the polymer matrix which serves to bind the fibers together and transfer the load through connections, from fiber to fiber and ply to ply. An accelerated characterization procedure for prediction of delayed failures was developed. This method utilizes time-temperature-stress-moisture superposition principles in conjunction with laminated plate theory. Because failures are inherently nonlinear, the testing and analytic modeling for both moduli and strength is based upon nonlinear viscoelastic concepts.

  3. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.

    1985-01-01

    This is the first report of the first phase of a 3-year program. Its objectives are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The first task (Task I) is to determine the major failure mechanisms. Presently, bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep are being evaluated as potential TBC failure mechanisms. The baseline TBC system consists of an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, and a Rene'80 substrate. Pre-exposures in air and argon combined with thermal cycle tests in air and argon are being utilized to evaluate bond coat oxidation as a failure mechanism. Unexpectedly, the specimens pre-exposed in argon failed before the specimens pre-exposed in air in subsequent thermal cycles testing in air. Four bond coats with different creep strengths are being utilized to evaluate the effect of bond coat creep on TBC degradation. These bond coats received an aluminide overcoat prior to application of the top coat to reduce the differences in bond coat oxidation behavior. Thermal cycle testing has been initiated. Methods have been selected for measuring tensile strength, Poisson's ratio, dynamic modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion both of the bond coat and top coat layers.

  4. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meier, Susan Manning; Sheffler, Keith D.; Nissley, David M.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this program was to generate a life prediction model for electron-beam-physical vapor deposited (EB-PVD) zirconia thermal barrier coating (TBC) on gas turbine engine components. Specific activities involved in development of the EB-PVD life prediction model included measurement of EB-PVD ceramic physical and mechanical properties and adherence strength, measurement of the thermally grown oxide (TGO) growth kinetics, generation of quantitative cyclic thermal spallation life data, and development of a spallation life prediction model. Life data useful for model development was obtained by exposing instrumented, EB-PVD ceramic coated cylindrical specimens in a jet fueled burner rig. Monotonic compression and tensile mechanical tests and physical property tests were conducted to obtain the EB-PVD ceramic behavior required for burner rig specimen analysis. As part of that effort, a nonlinear constitutive model was developed for the EB-PVD ceramic. Spallation failure of the EB-PVD TBC system consistently occurred at the TGO-metal interface. Calculated out-of-plane stresses were a small fraction of that required to statically fail the TGO. Thus, EB-PVD spallation was attributed to the interfacial cracking caused by in-plane TGO strains. Since TGO mechanical properties were not measured in this program, calculation of the burner rig specimen TGO in-plane strains was performed by using alumina properties. A life model based on maximum in-plane TGO tensile mechanical strain and TGO thickness correlated the burner rig specimen EB-PVD ceramic spallation lives within a factor of about plus or minus 2X.

  5. Telomere length in early life predicts lifespan

    PubMed Central

    Heidinger, Britt J.; Blount, Jonathan D.; Boner, Winnie; Griffiths, Kate; Metcalfe, Neil B.; Monaghan, Pat

    2012-01-01

    The attrition of telomeres, the ends of eukaryote chromosomes, is thought to play an important role in cell deterioration with advancing age. The observed variation in telomere length among individuals of the same age is therefore thought to be related to variation in potential longevity. Studies of this relationship are hampered by the time scale over which individuals need to be followed, particularly in long-lived species where lifespan variation is greatest. So far, data are based either on simple comparisons of telomere length among different age classes or on individuals whose telomere length is measured at most twice and whose subsequent survival is monitored for only a short proportion of the typical lifespan. Both approaches are subject to bias. Key studies, in which telomere length is tracked from early in life, and actual lifespan recorded, have been lacking. We measured telomere length in zebra finches (n = 99) from the nestling stage and at various points thereafter, and recorded their natural lifespan (which varied from less than 1 to almost 9 y). We found telomere length at 25 d to be a very strong predictor of realized lifespan (P < 0.001); those individuals living longest had relatively long telomeres at all points at which they were measured. Reproduction increased adult telomere loss, but this effect appeared transient and did not influence survival. Our results provide the strongest evidence available of the relationship between telomere length and lifespan and emphasize the importance of understanding factors that determine early life telomere length. PMID:22232671

  6. NASALIFE - Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2014-01-01

    NASALIFE is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although the primary focus was for CMC components, the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references empirical data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method or a peak counting type method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading and creep is combined with Minor's Rule to determine damage due to cyclic loading, damage due to creep, and the total damage per mission and the number of potential missions the component can provide before failure.

  7. Life history traits to predict biogeographic species distributions in bivalves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montalto, V.; Rinaldi, A.; Sarà, G.

    2015-10-01

    Organismal fecundity ( F) and its relationship with body size (BS) are key factors in predicting species distribution under current and future scenarios of global change. A functional trait-based dynamic energy budget (FT-DEB) is proposed as a mechanistic approach to predict the variation of F and BS as function of environmental correlates using two marine bivalves as model species ( Mytilus galloprovincialis and Brachidontes pharaonis). Validation proof of model skill (i.e., degree of correspondence between model predictions and field observations) and stationarity (i.e., ability of a model generated from data collected at one place/time to predict processes at another place/time) was provided to test model performance in predicting the bivalve distribution throughout the 22 sites in the Central Mediterranean Sea under local conditions of food density and body temperature. Model skill and stationarity were tested through the estimate of commission (i.e., proportion of species' absences predicted present) and omission (i.e., proportion of presences predicted absent) errors of predictions by comparing mechanistic predicted vs. observed F and BS values throughout the study area extrapolated by lab experiments and literature search. The resulting relationship was reliable for both species, and body size and fecundity were highly correlated in M. galloprovincialis compared to B. pharaonis; FT-DEB showed correct predictions of presence in more than 75 % of sites, and the regression between BS predicted vs. observed was highly significant in both species. Whilst recognising the importance of biotic interactions in shaping the distribution of species, our FT-DEB approach provided reliable quantitative estimates of where our species had sufficient F to support local populations or suggesting reproductive failure. Mechanistically, estimating F and BS as key traits of species life history can also be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context that surpasses the

  8. Life history traits to predict biogeographic species distributions in bivalves.

    PubMed

    Montalto, V; Rinaldi, A; Sarà, G

    2015-10-01

    Organismal fecundity (F) and its relationship with body size (BS) are key factors in predicting species distribution under current and future scenarios of global change. A functional trait-based dynamic energy budget (FT-DEB) is proposed as a mechanistic approach to predict the variation of F and BS as function of environmental correlates using two marine bivalves as model species (Mytilus galloprovincialis and Brachidontes pharaonis). Validation proof of model skill (i.e., degree of correspondence between model predictions and field observations) and stationarity (i.e., ability of a model generated from data collected at one place/time to predict processes at another place/time) was provided to test model performance in predicting the bivalve distribution throughout the 22 sites in the Central Mediterranean Sea under local conditions of food density and body temperature. Model skill and stationarity were tested through the estimate of commission (i.e., proportion of species' absences predicted present) and omission (i.e., proportion of presences predicted absent) errors of predictions by comparing mechanistic predicted vs. observed F and BS values throughout the study area extrapolated by lab experiments and literature search. The resulting relationship was reliable for both species, and body size and fecundity were highly correlated in M. galloprovincialis compared to B. pharaonis; FT-DEB showed correct predictions of presence in more than 75 % of sites, and the regression between BS predicted vs. observed was highly significant in both species. Whilst recognising the importance of biotic interactions in shaping the distribution of species, our FT-DEB approach provided reliable quantitative estimates of where our species had sufficient F to support local populations or suggesting reproductive failure. Mechanistically, estimating F and BS as key traits of species life history can also be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context that surpasses the

  9. Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Method Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Stanley R.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Ellis, John R.; Halbig, Michael C.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L.; Opila, Elizabeth J.; Thomas, David J.; Thomas-Ogbuji, Linus U.; Verrilli, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    Advanced launch systems (e.g., Reusable Launch Vehicle and other Shuttle Class concepts, Rocket-Based Combine Cycle, etc.), and interplanetary vehicles will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion components. The use of CMC is highly desirable to save weight, to improve reuse capability, and to increase performance. CMC candidate applications are mission and cycle dependent and may include turbopump rotors, housings, combustors, nozzle injectors, exit cones or ramps, and throats. For reusable and single mission uses, accurate prediction of life is critical to mission success. The tools to accomplish life prediction are very immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for a variety of space propulsion applications. This paper describes an approach to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system for CMC that addresses mechanical durability due to cyclic and steady thermomechanical loads, and takes into account the impact of environmental degradation.

  10. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

  11. Prediction of war veteran's mental health based on spiritual well-being, social support and self-efficacy variables: The mediating role of life satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    Soltani, Mohsen Ahmadi Tahour; Karaminia, Reza; Hashemian, Sayedeh Asefeh

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: The present study aims to provide a model for explaining the mental health of war veterans based on the variables of spiritual well-being, social support, and self-efficacy, with the mediating role of life satisfaction. Materials and Methods: The research method was descriptive a correlational. The study samples included 210 veterans, who had records in the Veterans Foundation in Tehran's number one district, Sarallah and Imam Khomeini shelters and Essaar Sports Center in Tehran. They were selected randomly and were asked to respond to questionnaires on mental health, spiritual well-being, life satisfaction, social support, and self-efficacy. The data was analyzed by LISREL software version 8.5, using the path analysis. Results: The results showed that the designed model fitted the data (AGFI = 1.00, RMSEA = 0.00 and NFI = 1.00). In the fitted model, life satisfaction and spiritual well-being directly, and social support indirectly, had a significant relationship with the mediator variable of life satisfaction of the war veterans’ mental health. Conclusions: Veterans with better social support, life satisfaction, and spiritual well-being have better mental health. PMID:25077150

  12. Shelf-Life Prediction of Chilled Foods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, Gudmundur; Kristbergsson, Kristberg

    All foods have a finite shelf life. Even foods, which mature with time, will in the end deteriorate, although their life span can exceed 100 years. Definitions of shelf life of food products differ. Some stress the suitability of the product for consump¬tion, others for how long the product can be sold. The Institute of Food Science and Technology emphasizes safety in its definition of shelf life: "The period of time under defined conditions of storage, after manufacture or packing, for which a food product will remain safe and be fit for use" ( http://www.ifst.org ). This definition does not describe what makes a food product "safe" or "fit" for use, but one can say all factors which restrict the shelf life of a food product either affect safety or quality or both.

  13. Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewicki, David G.

    1986-01-01

    How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

  14. Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

    1988-01-01

    A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

  15. Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Meyer, T. G.; Nelson, R. S.; Nissley, D. M.; Swanson, G. A.

    1989-01-01

    A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

  16. Predicting fatigue life of metal bellows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daniels, C. M.

    1968-01-01

    Classical method of presenting fatigue data in plots of alternating stress vs number of deflection cycles is applied to bellows formed of various metals, including corrosion-resistant steel, nickel alloys, and aluminum alloys. The expected life of a new bellows design can then be determined before fabrication and testing.

  17. Damage-based life prediction model for uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Di; Kang, Guozheng; Kan, Qianhua; Yu, Chao; Zhang, Chuanzeng

    2015-08-01

    Based on the experimental observations for the uniaxial low-cycle stress fatigue failure of super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloy microtubes (Song et al 2015 Smart Mater. Struct. 24 075004) and a new definition of damage variable corresponding to the variation of accumulated dissipation energy, a phenomenological damage model is proposed to describe the damage evolution of the NiTi microtubes during cyclic loading. Then, with a failure criterion of Dc = 1, the fatigue lives of the NiTi microtubes are predicted by the damage-based model, the predicted lives are in good agreement with the experimental ones, and all of the points are located within an error band of 1.5 times.

  18. Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction. Part 1; Comparison of Bearing Life Theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poplawski, Joseph V.; Peters, Steven M.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2001-01-01

    Four rolling-element bearing life theories were chosen for analysis and compared for a simple roller-race geometry model. The life theories were those of Weibull; Lundberg and Palmgren; Ioannides and Harris; and Zaretsky. The analysis without a fatigue limit of Ioannides and Harris is identical to the Lundberg and Palmgren analysis, and the Weibull analysis is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. The resultant predicted life a each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. The least variation in predicted life with Weibull slope comes with the Zaretsky equation. Except for a Weibull slope of 1.11, at which the Weibull equation predicts the highest lives, the highest lives are predicted for the Zaretsky equation. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both the Lundherg-Palmgren and Ioannides-Harris (where tau(sub u) = 0) equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMA/ISO standard. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field. The assumption of as shear stress fatigue limit tau(sub u) results in Hertz stress-life exponents greater than are experimentally verifiable.

  19. Three dimensional thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, W. H.; Brogren, E. W.

    1976-01-01

    A study was performed to analytically determine the cyclic thermomechanical behavior and fatigue life of three configurations of a Plug Nozzle Thrust Chamber. This thrust chamber is a test model which represents the current trend in nozzle design calling for high performance coupled with weight and volume limitations as well as extended life for reusability. The study involved the use of different materials and material combinations to evaluate their application to the problem of low-cycle fatigue in the thrust chamber. The thermal and structural analyses were carried out on a three-dimensional basis. Results are presented which show plots of continuous temperature histories and temperature distributions at selected times during the operating cycle of the thrust chamber. Computed structural data show critical regions for low-cycle fatigue and the histories of strain within the regions for each operation cycle.

  20. Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

  1. Tension fatigue analysis and life prediction for composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    O'Brien, T. K.; Rigamonti, M.; Zanotti, C.

    1989-01-01

    A methodology is presented for the tension fatigue analysis and life prediction of composite laminates subjected to tension fatigue loading. The methodology incorporates both the generic fracture mechanics characterization of delamination and the assessment of the infuence of damage on laminate fatigue life. Tension fatigue tests were conducted on quasi-isotropic and orthotropic glass epoxy, graphite epoxy, and glass/graphite epoxy hybrid laminates, demonstrating good agreement between measured and predicted lives.

  2. Predicting life satisfaction of the Angolan elderly: a structural model.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, M; Tomás, J M; Galiana, L; Sancho, P; Cebrià, M A

    2013-01-01

    Satisfaction with life is of particular interest in the study of old age well-being because it has arisen as an important component of old age. A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on best predictors of life satisfaction. This research evaluates the predictive power of some aging process variables, on Angolan elderly people's life satisfaction, while including perceived health into the model. Data for this research come from a cross-sectional survey of elderly people living in the capital of Angola, Luanda. A total of 1003 Angolan elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, perceived health, active engagement, generativity, and life satisfaction. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model was built to test variables' predictive power on life satisfaction. The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. The main predictors were those related to active engagement with others. Perceived health also had a significant and positive effect on life satisfaction. Several processes together may predict life satisfaction in the elderly population of Angola, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered relevant. The key factor associated to life satisfaction seems to be active engagement with others. PMID:22793686

  3. Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J. F.; Liu, A.

    1986-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components, which yields performance and durability benefits. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY (or CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal.

  4. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.; Meyer, T. G.; Nissley, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this program is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas turbine airfoils. In the program, two single crystal alloys and two coatings are being tested. These include PWA 1480, Alloy 185, overlay coating (PWA 286), and aluminide coating (PWA 273). Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the time independent (plastic) and time dependent (creep) strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularly important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system. Some of the accomplishments of the program are highlighted.

  5. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  6. Assessment of fatigue life of remanufactured impeller based on FEA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Lei; Cao, Huajun; Liu, Hailong; Zhang, Yubo

    2016-07-01

    Predicting the fatigue life of remanufactured centrifugal compressor impellers is a critical problem. In this paper, the S-N curve data were obtained by combining experimentation and theory deduction. The load spectrum was compiled by the rain-flow counting method based on the comprehensive consideration of the centrifugal force, residual stress, and aerodynamic loads in the repair region. A fatigue life simulation model was built, and fatigue life was analyzed based on the fatigue cumulative damage rule. Although incapable of providing a high-precision prediction, the simulation results were useful for the analysis of fatigue life impact factors and fatigue fracture areas. Results showed that the load amplitude greatly affected fatigue life, the impeller was protected from running at over-speed, and the predicted fatigue life was satisfied within the next service cycle safely at the rated speed.

  7. Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of BPA in rats at different life stages using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Xiaoxia Doerge, Daniel R.; Fisher, Jeffrey W.

    2013-07-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) has received considerable attention throughout the last decade due to its widespread use in consumer products. For the first time a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed in neonatal and adult rats to quantitatively evaluate age-dependent pharmacokinetics of BPA and its phase II metabolites. The PBPK model was calibrated in adult rats using studies on BPA metabolism and excretion in the liver and gastrointestinal tract, and pharmacokinetic data with BPA in adult rats. For immature rats the hepatic and gastrointestinal metabolism of BPA was inferred from studies on the maturation of phase II enzymes coupled with serum time course data in pups. The calibrated model predicted the measured serum concentrations of BPA and BPA conjugates after administration of 100 μg/kg of d6-BPA in adult rats (oral gavage and intravenous administration) and postnatal days 3, 10, and 21 pups (oral gavage). The observed age-dependent BPA serum concentrations were partially attributed to the immature metabolic capacity of pups. A comparison of the dosimetry of BPA across immature rats and monkeys suggests that dose adjustments would be necessary to extrapolate toxicity studies from neonatal rats to infant humans. - Highlights: • A PBPK model predicts the kinetics of bisphenol A (BPA) in young and adult rats. • BPA metabolism within enterocytes is required for fitting of oral BPA kinetic data. • BPA dosimetry in young rats is different than adult rats and young monkeys.

  8. Effect of Hoop Stress on Ball Bearing Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard; Coe, Harold H.

    1995-01-01

    A finite-element analysis (FEA) of a generic, dimensionally normalized inner race of an angular-contact ball bearing was performed under varying conditions of speed and the press (or interference) fit of the inner-race bore on a journal. The FEA results at the ball-race contact were used to derive an equation from which was obtained the radius of an equivalent cylindrical bearing race with the same or similar hoop stress. The radius of the equivalent cylinder was used to obtain a generalized closed-form approximation of the hoop stresses at the ball-inner-race contact in an angular-contact ball bearing. A life analysis was performed on both a 45- and a 120-mm-bore, angular-contact ball bearing. The predicted lives with and without hoop stress were compared with experimental endurance results obtained at 12000 and 25000 rpm with the 120-mm-bore ball bearing. A life factor equation based on hoop stress is presented.

  9. Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Development - 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Stanley R.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Thomas, David J.; Halbig, Michael C.; Opila, Elizabeth J.; Ellis, John R.

    2003-01-01

    Accurate life prediction is critical to successful use of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). The tools to accomplish this are immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for many reusable and single mission launch vehicle propulsion and airframe applications. This paper describes an approach and progress made to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system that addresses mechanical durability and environmental degradation of C/SiC.

  10. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1983-01-01

    The activities performed during the first year of the NASA HOST Program, Creep Fatigue Life Prediction for Engine Hot Section Materials (Isotropic), being conducted by Pratt & Whitney Aircraft are summarized. The program is a 5 year, two part effort aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results of the program produced thus far are discussed. Cast B1900 + Hf and wrought IN 718 were selected as the base and alternate materials, respectively. A single heat of B1900 + Hf was obtained and test specimens fabricated. The material was characterized with respect to grain size, gamma prime size, carbide distribution, and dislocation density. Monotonic tensile and creep testing has shown engineering properties within anticipated scatter for this material. Examination of the tensile tests has shown a transition from inhomogeneous planar slip within the grains at lower temperatures to more homogeneous matrix deformation. Examination of the creep tests has shown a transgranular failure mode at 1400 F and an intergranular failure mode at 1600 F and 1800 F.

  11. Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

    1998-01-01

    An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

  12. A life prediction model for laminated composite structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen, David H.

    1990-01-01

    A life prediction methodology for laminated continuous fiber composites subjected to fatigue loading conditions was developed. A summary is presented of research completed. A phenomenological damage evolution law was formulated for matrix cracking which is independent of stacking sequence. Mechanistic and physical support was developed for the phenomenological evolution law proposed above. The damage evolution law proposed above was implemented to a finite element computer program. And preliminary predictions were obtained for a structural component undergoing fatigue loading induced damage.

  13. Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: an application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39).

    PubMed

    Borchani, Hanen; Bielza, Concha; Martı Nez-Martı N, Pablo; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2012-12-01

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson's patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson's disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables. PMID:22897950

  14. Carbide factor predicts rolling-element bearing fatigue life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chevalier, J. L.; Zaretsky, E. V.

    1973-01-01

    Analysis was made to determine correlation between number and size of carbide particles and rolling-element fatigue. Correlation was established, and carbide factor was derived that can be used to predict fatigue life more effectively than such variables as heat treatment, chemical composition, and hardening mechanism.

  15. Strainrange partitioning life predictions of the long time metal properties council creep-fatigue tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, J. F.; Halford, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The method of strainrange partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the time- and cycle-fraction approach. The method of strainrange partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the time- and cycle-fraction approach.

  16. Advances in fatigue life prediction methodology for metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue life, for four aluminum alloys and three titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading are described. Equations to calculate a cyclic-plastic-zone corrected effective stress-intensity factor range from a cyclic J-integral and crack-closure analysis of large cracks were reviewed. The effective stress-intensity factor range against crack growth rate relations were used in the closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth under variable-amplitude and spectrum loading. Using the closure model and microstructural features, a total fatigue life prediction method is demonstrated for three aluminum alloys under various load histories.

  17. Capacity-loss diagnostic and life-time prediction in lithium-ion batteries: Part 1. Development of a capacity-loss diagnostic method based on open-circuit voltage analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tiansi; Pei, Lei; Wang, Tingting; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo

    2016-01-01

    Effective capacity-loss diagnosis and life-time prediction are the foundations of battery second-use technology and will play an important role in the development of the new energy industry. Of the two, the capacity-loss diagnostic, as a precondition of the life-time prediction, needs to be studied first. Performing a capacity-loss diagnosis for an aging cell consists of finding the decisive degradation mechanisms for the cell's capacity degradation. Because a cell's capacity just equals the span of the open-circuit voltage (OCV), when suspect degradation mechanisms affect a cell's capacity, they will leave corresponding and particular clues in the OCV curve. Taking a cell's OCV as the diagnostic indicator, a multi-mechanistic and non-destructive diagnostic method is developed in this paper. To establish an unambiguous relationship between OCV changes and the combinations of the decisive mechanisms, all the possible OCV changes under various aging situations are systematically analyzed based on a novel simultaneous coordinate system, in which the effects of each suspect capacity-loss mechanism on the OCV curve can be clearly represented. As a summary of the analysis results, a straightforward diagnostic flowchart is presented. By following the flowchart, an aging cell can be diagnosed within three steps by observation of the OCV changes.

  18. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction model for alloys with defects: applied to A206

    SciTech Connect

    Kapoor, Rajeev; Sree Hari Rao, V.; Mishra, Rajiv S.; Baumann, John A.; Grant, Glenn J.

    2011-05-31

    Presented here is a model for the prediction of fatigue life based on the statistical distribution of pores, intermetallic particles and grains. This has been applied to a cast Al alloy A206, before and after friction stir processing (FSP). The model computes the probability to initiate a small crack based on the probability of finding combinations of defects and grains on the surface. The crack initiation and propagation life of small cracks due to these defect and grain combinations are computed and summed to obtain the total fatigue life. The defect and grain combinations are ranked according to total fatigue life and the failure probability computed. Bending fatigue experiments were carried out on A206 before and after FSP. FSP eliminated the porosity, broke down the particles and refined the microstructure. The model predicted the fatigue life of A206 before and after FSP well. The cumulative probability distribution vs. fatigue life was fitted to a three parameter Weibull distribution function. The scatter reduced after FSP and the threshold of fatigue life increased. The potential improvement in the fatigue life of A206 for a microstructure consisting of a finer distribution of particle sizes after FSP was predicted using the model.

  19. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  20. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    PubMed

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. PMID:25759430

  1. A comparison of two total fatigue life prediction methods

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, N.; Lawrence, F.V.

    1999-07-01

    A 2-D analytical model which is termed the PICC-RICC model combines the effects of plasticity-induced crack closure (PICC) and roughness-induced crack closure (RICC). The PICC-RICC model handles naturally the gradual transition from RICC to PICC dominated crack growth. In this study, the PICC-RICC model is combined with a crack nucleation model to predict the total fatigue life of a notched component. This modified PICC-RICC model will be used to examine several controversial aspects of an earlier, computationally simpler total-life model known as the IP model.

  2. Corrosion fatigue behavior and life prediction method under changing temperature condition

    SciTech Connect

    Kanasaki, Hiroshi; Hirano, Akihiko; Iida, Kunihiro; Asada, Yasuhide

    1997-12-01

    Axially strain controlled low cycle fatigue tests of a carbon steel in oxygenated high temperature water were carried out under changing temperature conditions. Two patterns of triangular wave were selected for temperature cycling. One was in-phase pattern synchronizing with strain cycling and the other was an out-of-phase pattern in which temperature was changed in anti-phase to the strain cycling. The fatigue life under changing temperature condition was in the range of the fatigue life under various constant temperature within the range of the changing temperature. The fatigue life of in-phase pattern was equivalent to that of out-of-phase pattern. The corrosion fatigue life prediction method was proposed for changing temperature condition, and was based on the assumption that the fatigue damage increased in linear proportion to increment of strain during cycling. The fatigue life predicted by this method was in good agreement with the test results.

  3. DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    2013-01-01

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  4. Development of thermomechanical life prediction models for thermal barrier coatings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.

    1985-01-01

    Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components. To achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Mechanistic thermomechanical and thermochemical life models and statistically significant design data are therefore required for the reliable exploitation of TBC benefits on gas turbine airfoils. Garrett's NASA-HOST Program (NAS3-23945) is designed to fulfill these requirements. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating, and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulated layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical life models are being tailored to predict TBC strain tolerance in terms of materials, engine, and mission parameters. Continuum and fracture mechanics approaches and statistical methods are being evaluated to develop tensile and compressive strain functions required to drive a mission analysis capable thermomechanical life model for TBCs. Results of initial testing to calibrate these life models will be presented.

  5. NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R.

    2002-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  6. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  7. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-11-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  8. Fatigue life prediction under service load considering strengthening effect of loads below fatigue limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lihui; Zheng, Songlin; Feng, Jinzhi

    2014-09-01

    Lightweight design requires an accurate life prediction for structures and components under service loading histories. However, predicted life with the existing methods seems too conservative in some cases, leading to a heavy structure. Because these methods are established on the basis that load cycles would only cause fatigue damage, ignore the strengthening effect of loads. Based on Palmgren-Miner Rule (PMR), this paper introduces a new method for fatigue life prediction under service loadings by taking into account the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit. In this method, the service loadings are classified into three categories: damaging load, strengthening load and none-effect load, and the process for fatigue life prediction is divided into two stages: stage I and stage II, according to the best strengthening number of cycles. During stage I, fatigue damage is calculated considering both the strengthening and damaging effect of load cycles. While during stage II, only the damaging effect is considered. To validate this method, fatigue lives of automobile half shaft and torsion beam rear axle are calculated based on the new method and traditional methods, such as PMR and Modified Miner Rule (MMR), and fatigue tests of the two components are conducted under service loading histories. The tests results show that the percentage errors of the predicted life with the new method to mean life of tests for the two components are -3.78% and -1.76% separately, much lesser than that with PMR and MMR. By considering the strengthening effect of loads below the fatigue limit, the new method can significantly improve the accuracy for fatigue life prediction. Thus lightweight design can be fully realized in the design stage.

  9. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  10. Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.; Liu, A.

    1986-01-01

    The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimen procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.

  11. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  12. Life histories predict vulnerability to overexploitation in parrotfishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Brett M.; Houk, Peter; Russ, Garry R.; Choat, J. Howard

    2014-12-01

    A scarcity of life-history data currently exists for many exploited coral reef fishes, hindering our ability to interpret fishery dynamics and develop sound conservation policies. In particular, parrotfishes (Family Labridae) represent a ubiquitous and ecologically important group that is increasingly prevalent in commercial and artisanal fisheries worldwide. We used both fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data to examine the effect of life histories on vulnerability to overexploitation in parrotfishes. Vulnerability for each species was derived from independent measures associated with both temporal (20-year catch records) and spatial datasets. Most life-history traits examined were significant predictors of vulnerability across species, but their relative utility differed considerably. Length-based traits (e.g., lengths at maturity and sex change, maximum length) were generally superior to age-based traits (e.g., life span), but one age-based trait, age at female maturation, was the best predictor. The results suggest that easily derived metrics such as maximum length can be effective measures of sensitivity to exploitation when applied to phylogenetically related multispecies assemblages, but more holistic and comprehensive age-based demographic data should be sought, especially in data-deficient and heavily impacted regions. Given the increasing prevalence of parrotfishes in the global coral reef harvest, species-specific responses demonstrate the capacity for heavy fishing pressure to alter parrotfish assemblages considerably.

  13. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  14. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES.

    SciTech Connect

    LOFARO,R.; SOO,P.; VILLARAN,M.; GROVE,E.

    2001-03-29

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed.

  15. Fixed-time life tests based on fuzzy life characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanagawa, Akihiro; Ohta, Hiroshi

    1992-06-01

    This paper deals with a reliability demonstration test with type-I censoring and presents a formulation based on fuzzy-set theory. Acceptable and rejectable MTBFs are represented in terms of a fuzzy concept, and Bayes' theorem plays an important role in the formulation. The proposed life test is useful when it is difficult to specify acceptable and rejectable MTBFs strictly.

  16. CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2003-01-01

    This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

  17. Life prediction and reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Seung-Wook; Kim, Min-Kyu; Kim, Ick-Jun; Moon, Seong-In; Sun, Yang-Kook; Kim, Hyun-Soo

    Reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries was mainly considered. Shape parameter (β) and scale parameter (η) were calculated from experimental data based on cycle life test. We also examined safety characteristics of lithium secondary batteries. As proposed by IEC 62133 (2002), we had performed all of the safety/abuse tests such as 'mechanical abuse tests', 'environmental abuse tests', 'electrical abuse tests'. This paper describes the cycle life of lithium secondary batteries, FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) and the safety/abuse tests we had performed.

  18. Fatigue life prediction in bending from axial fatigue information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manson, S. S.; Muralidharan, U.

    1982-01-01

    Bending fatigue in the low cyclic life range differs from axial fatigue due to the plastic flow which alters the linear stress-strain relation normally used to determine the nominal stresses. An approach is presented to take into account the plastic flow in calculating nominal bending stress (S sub bending) based on true surface stress. These functions are derived in closed form for rectangular and circular cross sections. The nominal bending stress and the axial fatigue stress are plotted as a function of life (N sub S) and these curves are shown for several materials of engineering interest.

  19. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  20. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons

    PubMed Central

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A.; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C.

    2016-01-01

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations. PMID:27091302

  1. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    PubMed

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-01-01

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations. PMID:27091302

  2. Development of a Composite Delamination Fatigue Life Prediction Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    OBrien, Thomas K.

    2009-01-01

    Delamination is one of the most significant and unique failure modes in composite structures. Because of a lack of understanding of the consequences of delamination and the inability to predict delamination onset and growth, many composite parts are unnecessarily rejected upon inspection, both immediately after manufacture and while in service. NASA Langley is leading the efforts in the U.S. to develop a fatigue life prediction methodology for composite delamination using fracture mechanics. Research being performed to this end will be reviewed. Emphasis will be placed on the development of test standards for delamination characterization, incorporation of approaches for modeling delamination in commercial finite element codes, and efforts to mature the technology for use in design handbooks and certification documents.

  3. Life Prediction for a CMC Component Using the NASALIFE Computer Code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2005-01-01

    The computer code, NASALIFE, was used to provide estimates for life of an SiC/SiC stator vane under varying thermomechanical loading conditions. The primary intention of this effort is to show how the computer code NASALIFE can be used to provide reasonable estimates of life for practical propulsion system components made of advanced ceramic matrix composites (CMC). Simple loading conditions provided readily observable and acceptable life predictions. Varying the loading conditions such that low cycle fatigue and creep were affected independently provided expected trends in the results for life due to varying loads and life due to creep. Analysis was based on idealized empirical data for the 9/99 Melt Infiltrated SiC fiber reinforced SiC.

  4. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    PubMed Central

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  5. Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Tarun

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

  6. Tension fatigue analysis and life prediction for composite laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obrien, T. K.; Rigamonti, M.; Zanotti, C.

    1988-01-01

    A tension fatigue life prediction methodology for composite laminates is presented. Tension fatigue tests were conducted on quasi-isotropic and orthotropic glass epoxy, graphite epoxy, and glass/graphite epoxy hybrid laminates. Edge delamination onset data were used to generate plots of strain energy release rate as a function of cycles to delamination onset. These plots were then used along with strain energy release rate analyses of delaminations initiating at matrix cracks to predict local delamination onset. Stiffness loss was measured experimentally to account for the accumulation of matrix cracks and for delamination growth. Fatigue failure was predicted by comparing the increase in global strain resulting from stiffness loss to the decrease in laminate failure strain resulting from delaminations forming at matrix cracks through the laminate thickness. Good agreement between measured and predicted lives indicated that the through-thickness damage accumulation model can accurately describe fatigue failure for laminates where the delamination onset behavior in fatigue is well characterized, and stiffness loss can be monitored in real time to account for damage growth.

  7. Life prediction of thermomechanical fatigue using total strain version of strainrange partitioning (SRP): A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltsman, James F.; Halford, Gary R.

    1988-01-01

    A method is proposed (without experimental verification) for extending the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles. The principal feature of TS SRP is the determination of the time-temperature-waveshape dependent elastic strainrange versus life lines that are added subsequently to the classical inelastic strainrange versus life lines to form the total strainrange versus life relations. The procedure is based on a derived relation between failure and flow behavior. Failure behavior is represented by conventional SRP inelastic strainrange versus cyclic life relations, while flow behavior is captured in terms of the cyclic stress-strain response characteristics. Stress-strain response is calculated from simple equations developed from approximations to more complex cyclic constitutive models. For applications to TMF life prediction, a new testing technique, bithermal cycling, is proposed as a means for generating the inelastic strainrange versus life relations. Flow relations for use in predicting TMF lives would normally be obtained from approximations to complex thermomechanical constitutive models. Bithermal flow testing is also proposed as an alternative to thermomechanical flow testing at low strainranges where the hysteresis loop is difficult to analyze.

  8. The 3.3K thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, W. H.

    1974-01-01

    The cause of low-cycle fatigue failure of the 3.3K Thrust Chamber was investigated. This thrust chamber typifies the current trend in rocket nozzle design which calls for high performance coupled with weight and volume limitations as well as the requirement of reusability. The analysis was performed with the BOPACE finite-element computer program which provides capability to determine viscoplastic response of a structure subjected to cyclic thermal and mechanical loading. Results are presented which show the critical region for low-cycle fatigue and the history of strain within that region for each thermo-mechanical loading cycle in the 3.3K thrust chamber. The predicted behavior was used to evaluate the low-cycle fatigue life near the throat plane of the chamber. The results show that BOPACE provides an extremely accurate prediction of structural behavior; the critical region was identified and the life determined from computed strains was within 154 cycles of the observed failure at 1013 cycles.

  9. Personality Predicts Health Declines Through Stressful Life Events During Late Mid-Life.

    PubMed

    Iacovino, Juliette M; Bogdan, Ryan; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Personality predicts the occurrence of dependent stressful life events (SLE; i.e., events reliant, at least in part, on an individual's behavior). This process, termed stress generation, contributes to psychiatric outcomes, but its role in physical health is unknown. Data were included from 998 participants (aged 55-64) in the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) study. Assessments occurred every 6 months for 18 months. Neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness were measured with the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. Dependent (e.g., divorce) and independent (e.g., family death) SLE occurring within 6 months following baseline were assessed with the List of Threatening Experiences and confirmed by interviews. Health problems occurring within a year after SLE were the outcome. Analyses examined whether neuroticism, impulsivity, and agreeableness indirectly predict the onset of new health problems through exposure to dependent SLE. Each personality trait was associated with dependent, but not independent, SLE. Only dependent SLE predicted new health problems. Each personality trait indirectly predicted the onset of new health problems through dependent SLE. Findings suggest that personality-driven stress generation influences physical health during late mid-life. Addressing personality in interventions may reduce the occurrence of SLE, in turn decreasing health risks. PMID:25929195

  10. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents a summary of results from a 7 year program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program was composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addressed the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigated the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involved experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material formed the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: group of zone axes (001), group of zone axes (011), group of zone axes (111), and group of zone axes (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal materials were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were developed for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. A life model was developed for smooth and notched fatigue in the option program. Finally, computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive and life models was developed.

  11. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  12. Fatigue life prediction of liquid rocket engine combustor with subscale test verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sung, In-Kyung

    Reusable rocket systems such as the Space Shuttle introduced a new era in propulsion system design for economic feasibility. Practical reusable systems require an order of magnitude increase in life. To achieve this improved methods are needed to assess failure mechanisms and to predict life cycles of rocket combustor. A general goal of the research was to demonstrate the use of subscale rocket combustor prototype in a cost-effective test program. Life limiting factors and metal behaviors under repeated loads were surveyed and reviewed. The life prediction theories are presented, with an emphasis on studies that used subscale test hardware for model validation. From this review, low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep-fatigue interaction (ratcheting) were identified as the main life limiting factors of the combustor. Several life prediction methods such as conventional and advanced viscoplastic models were used to predict life cycle due to low cycle thermal stress, transient effects, and creep rupture damage. Creep-fatigue interaction and cyclic hardening were also investigated. A prediction method based on 2D beam theory was modified using 3D plate deformation theory to provide an extended prediction method. For experimental validation two small scale annular plug nozzle thrusters were designed, built and tested. The test article was composed of a water-cooled liner, plug annular nozzle and 200 psia precombustor that used decomposed hydrogen peroxide as the oxidizer and JP-8 as the fuel. The first combustor was tested cyclically at the Advanced Propellants and Combustion Laboratory at Purdue University. Testing was stopped after 140 cycles due to an unpredicted failure mechanism due to an increasing hot spot in the location where failure was predicted. A second combustor was designed to avoid the previous failure, however, it was over pressurized and deformed beyond repair during cold-flow test. The test results are discussed and compared to the analytical and numerical

  13. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  14. Life test data and flight predictions for nickel-hydrogen (Ni-H/sub 2/) batteries

    SciTech Connect

    Levy, E.

    1982-08-01

    A substantial test data base is accumulating on Ni-H/sub 2/ cells, batteries and positive plates to support life predictions of greater than 10 years in synchronous and elliptical orbits and greater than 5000 cycles in low earth orbit, all at high (80 percent) depth of discharge. All cells, batteries, and positive plates used for this test data base are of a common design. The cell is the Air Force/ Hughes ''pineapple slice'' cell. The positive plate is the Air Force/EPI Colorado Springs dry sinter electrochemically impregnated plate. Cell testing includes real time tests of cells and/or batteries in all three (low earth, elliptical, synchronous) orbits. Plate testing includes real time and accelerated tests in boilerplate assemblies. Life predictions are based on understanding cell wearout modes and comparing wearout rates of nickel-hydrogen components to those of nickel-cadmium cells.

  15. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    PubMed

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children. PMID:21789735

  16. Life prediction and constitutive models for anisotropic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bill, R. C.

    1982-01-01

    The intent of this program is to develop a basic understanding of cyclic creep-fatigue deformation mechanisms and damage accumulation, a capability for reliable life prediction, and the ability to model the constitutive behavior of anisotropic single crystal (SC) and directionally solidified or recrystallized (DSR) comprise the program, and the work breakdown for each option reflects a distinct concern for two classes of anisotropic materials, SC and DSR materials, at temperatures encountered in the primary gas path (airfoil temperatures), and at temperatures typical of the blade root attachment and shank area. Work directed toward the higher temperature area of concern in the primary gas path includes effects of coatings on the behavior and properties of the materials of interest. The blade root attachment work areas will address the effects of stress concentrations associated with attachment features.

  17. Fatigue life prediction of an intermetallic matrix composite at elevated temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartolotta, Paul A.

    1991-01-01

    A strain-based fatigue life prediction method is proposed for an intermetallic matrix composite (IMC) under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures. Styled after the Universal Slopes method, the model utilizes the composite's tensile properties to estimate fatigue life. Factors such as fiber volume ratio, number of plys and temperature dependence are implicitly incorporated into the model through these properties. The model constants are determined by using unidirectional fatigue data at temperatures of 425 and 815 C. Fatigue lives from two independent sources are used to verify the model at temperatures of 650 and 760 C. Cross-ply lives at 760 C are also predicted. It is demonstrated that the correlation between experimental and predicted lives is within a factor of two.

  18. Fatigue life prediction of an intermetallic matrix composite at elevated temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartolotta, P. A.

    1991-01-01

    A strain-based fatigue life prediction method is proposed for an intermetallic matrix composite (IMC) under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures. Styled after the 'Universal Slopes' method, the model utilizes the composite's tensile properties to estimate fatigue life. Factors such as fiber volume ratio (Vf), number of plys and temperature dependence are implicitly incorporated into the model through these properties. The model constants are determined by using unidirectional fatigue data at temperatures of 425 and 815 C. Fatigue lives from two independent sources are used to verify the model at temperatures of 650 and 760 C. Cross-ply lives at 760 C are also predicted. It is demonstrated that the correlation between experimental and predicted lives is within a factor of two.

  19. Relationship between recent life events, social supports, and attitudes to domestic violence: predictive roles in behaviors.

    PubMed

    Guoping, Huang; Yalin, Zhang; Yuping, Cao; Momartin, Shakeh; Ming, Wei

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between recent life events, attitudes to domestic violence (DV), and DV behaviors among perpetrators of DV in China. A total of 600 participants were assessed for recent life events, psychological functioning, social support, and attitudes to DV. Results demonstrated that recent negative life events (NLE) and attitudes to DV were predictive factors for DV among perpetrators of DV, after controlling for demographic variables, psychological functioning, and social supports. The findings suggest that recent life events are potential factors contributing to behaviors of DV. The importance of changes of negative attitudes to DV among perpetrators was highly emphasized. Intervention and prevention programs based on psychological functioning and social support in relation to perpetrators of DV may be useful to control DV in China. PMID:19602674

  20. Synthetic Microstructure-Based Lifing of Nickel-Based Superalloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, Joseph C.

    This work focuses on the root cause of life limiting behavior in Ni-based superalloys for high pressure and temperature turbine disks applications in low cycle fatigue (LCF) by generating statistical volume elements (SVEs) of directly measured 3D microstructures for finite element method (FEM) simulations with crystal plasticity. Synthetic microstructures with experimentally determined microstructurally small fatigue crack (MSFC) weakest link features of as large as (ALA) grains and long annealing twins comprise the test cases. Upper limit truncated log-normal distributions account for the log-normal upper tail departure in grain size distributions of Ni-based superalloys more accurately representing ALA grains. Probability plots quantify the log-normality of grain sizes more effectively than traditional histograms. Twins are inserted into synthetic microstructures according to the coherent Sigma3 orientation relationship. A 3D measured dataset of the Inconel 100 (IN100) validates the Saltykov method stereology technique for estimating 3D grain size distributions from 2D; the 3D grain size distribution mean field and upper tail of IN100 is accurately predicted. The Saltykov method gave 3D grain sizes from a Rene 88 Damage Tolerant (R88DT) 2D dataset resulting in fatigue SVEs of approximately 1.5 million elements and 200 grains from FEM sensitivity studies. Changing mesh resolution minimally impacted global damage response, but converging locally requires significantly higher refinement. Fatigue interrogating FEM studies evolved hot spots in the local MSFC environment in one SVE, but not in another SVE with different crystallographic orientations, suggesting strong 3D full-field neighbor effects. The study revealed a need for slip line length considerations in crystal plasticity to better capture life limiting behavior. The findings point towards strictly limiting the ALA grain size in Ni-based superalloys to extend service life.

  1. Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.

    1985-01-01

    Life predictions are made for two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) systems produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) applied oxidation-resistant NiCrAlY bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron-beam/physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical and thermochemical testing of the program TBCs is in progress. A number of the former tests has been completed. Fracture mechanics data for the Chromalloy plasma-sprayed TBC system indicate that the cohesive toughness of the zirconia layer is increased by thermal cycling and reduced by high temperature exposure at 1150 C. Eddy current technology feasibility has been established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system. High pressure turbine blades have been coated with program TBC systems for a piggyback test in a TFE731-5 turbofan factory engine test. Data from this test will be used to validate the TBC life models.

  2. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  3. A methodology to predict residual life in LCF regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delprete, C.; Vercelli, A.

    2009-08-01

    In this paper a methodology to calibrate a nonlinear constitutive model, implemented in a finite element commercial code and able to correctly predict the cyclic behaviour of material, is proposed. This model allows to take into account all the main phenomena that occur when a metallic material is subjected to cyclic loadings, in particular cyclic hardening or softening, Bauschinger effect, ratcheting and shakedown. High Cycle Fatigue and Low Cycle Fatigue tests under different strain levels have been performed on an aluminum alloy for high temperature applications, and the obtained experimental data have been used to determine the four constitutive parameters of the isotropic and kinematic hardening parts of the model. The comparison between the number of stabilized cycles predicted by numerical simulations and experimental data has been very satisfying. Using a self-made post-processing software, the Basquin-Manson-Coffin, Neu-Sehitoglu, Chaboche and Skelton damage models have been applied to determine the residual life of the specimen and to compare the results.

  4. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nissley, D. M.; Meyer, T. G.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents the results from a 35 month period of a program designed to develop generic constitutive and life prediction approaches and models for nickel-based single crystal gas turbine airfoils. The program is composed of a base program and an optional program. The base program addresses the high temperature coated single crystal regime above the airfoil root platform. The optional program investigates the low temperature uncoated single crystal regime below the airfoil root platform including the notched conditions of the airfoil attachment. Both base and option programs involve experimental and analytical efforts. Results from uniaxial constitutive and fatigue life experiments of coated and uncoated PWA 1480 single crystal material form the basis for the analytical modeling effort. Four single crystal primary orientations were used in the experiments: (001), (011), (111), and (213). Specific secondary orientations were also selected for the notched experiments in the optional program. Constitutive models for an overlay coating and PWA 1480 single crystal material were developed based on isothermal hysteresis loop data and verified using thermomechanical (TMF) hysteresis loop data. A fatigue life approach and life models were selected for TMF crack initiation of coated PWA 1480. An initial life model used to correlate smooth and notched fatigue data obtained in the option program shows promise. Computer software incorporating the overlay coating and PWA 1480 constitutive models was developed.

  5. Probabilistic Residual Strength Model Developed for Life Prediction of Ceramic Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, David J.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Calomino, Anthony M.

    2004-01-01

    For the next generation of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is investigating introducing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in place of current superalloys for structural propulsion applications (e.g., nozzles, vanes, combustors, and heat exchangers). The higher use temperatures of CMCs will reduce vehicle weight by eliminating and/or reducing cooling system requirements. The increased strength-to-weight ratio of CMCs relative to superalloys further enhances their weight savings potential. However, in order to provide safe designs for components made of these new materials, a comprehensive life prediction methodology for CMC structures needs to be developed. A robust methodology for lifing composite structures has yet to be adopted by the engineering community. Current industry design practice continues to utilize deterministic empirically based models borrowed from metals design for predicting material life capabilities. The deterministic nature of these models inadequately addresses the stochastic character of brittle composites, and their empirical reliance makes predictions beyond the experimental test conditions a risky extrapolation. A team of engineers at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing a new life prediction engineering model. The Probabilistic Residual Strength (PRS) model uses the residual strength of the composite as its damage metric. Expected life and material strength are both considered probabilistically to account for the observed stochastic material response. Extensive experimental testing has been carried out on C/SiC (a candidate aerospace CMC material system) in a controlled 1000 ppm O2/argon environment at elevated temperatures of 800 and 1200 C. The test matrix was established to allow observation of the material behavior, characterization of the model, and validation of the model's predictive capabilities. Sample results of the validation study are illustrated in the graphs.

  6. Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Soditus, Sherry; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

  7. Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Soditus, Sherry; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2002-10-01

    Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

  8. Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abuelfoutouh, Nader Mohamed; Verrilli, M. J.; Halford, G. R.

    1989-01-01

    A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

  9. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  10. Base Rates, Contingencies, and Prediction Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith

    2009-01-01

    A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…

  11. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    DOEpatents

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  12. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Shryock, Daniel F; DeFalco, Lesley A; Esque, Todd C

    2014-08-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies. PMID:25247062

  13. Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Shryock, Daniel F; DeFalco, Lesley A; Esque, Todd C

    2014-01-01

    The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies. PMID:25247062

  14. Life prediction of 808nm high power semiconductor laser by accelerated life test of constant current stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Nan; Li, Wei; Zhao, Yihao; Zhong, Li; Liu, Suping; Ma, Xiaoyu

    2015-10-01

    High power semiconductor laser is widely used because of its high transformation efficiency, good working stability, compact volume and simple driving requirements. Laser's lifetime is very long, but tests at high levels of stress can speed up the failure process and shorten the times to failure significantly. So accelerated life test is used here for forecasting the lifetime of 808nm CW GaAs/AlGaAs high power semiconductor laser that has an output power of 1W under 1.04A. Accelerated life test of constant current stress based on the Inverse Power Law Relationship was designed. Tests were conducted under 1.3A, 1.6A and 1.9A at room temperature. It is the first time that this method is used in the domestic research of laser's lifetime prediction. Applying Weibull Distribution to describe the lifetime distribution and analyzing the data of times to failure, characteristics lifetime's functional relationship model with current is achieved. Then the characteristics lifetime under normal current is extrapolated, which is 9473h. Besides, to confirm the validity of the functional relationship model, we conduct an additional accelerated life test under 1.75A. Based on this experimental data we calculated the characteristics lifetime corresponding to 1.75A that is 171h, while the extrapolated characteristics lifetime from the former functional relationship model is 162h. The two results shows 5% deviation that is very low and acceptable, which indicates that the test design is reasonable and authentic.

  15. Development of a simplified procedure for thrust chamber life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Porowski, J. S.; Badlani, M.; Kasrale, B.; Odonnell, W. J.; Peterson, D.

    1981-01-01

    An analytical design procedure for predicting thrust chamber life considering cyclically induced thinning and bulging of the hot gas wall is developed. The hot gas wall, composed of ligaments connecting adjacent cooling channel ribs and separating the coolant flow from the combustion gas, is subjected to pressure loading and severe thermal cycling. Thermal transients during start up and shut down cause plastic straining through the ligaments. The primary bending stress superimposed on the alternate in-plane cyclic straining causes incremental bulging of the ligaments during each firing cycle. This basic mechanism of plastic ratcheting is analyzed and a method developed for determining ligament deformation and strain. The method uses a yield surface for combined bending and membrane loading to determine the incremental permanent deflection and pregressive thinning near the center of the ligaments which cause the geometry of the ligaments to change as the incremental strains accumulate. Fatigue and tensile instability are affected by these local geometry changes. Both are analyzed and a failure criterion developed.

  16. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Harvey, P. R.

    1992-01-01

    This Final Report covers the activities completed under the optional program of the NASA HOST Contract, NAS3-23288. The initial effort of the optional program was report-in NASA CR189221, which consisted of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed stresses. The baseline alloy used in the tests included B1900+Hf (with or without coating) and wrought INCO 718. Tests conducted on B1900+Hf included environmental tests using various atmospheres (75 psig oxygen, purified argon, or block exposures) and specimen tests of wrought INCO 718 included tensile, creep, stress rupture, TMF, multiaxial, and mean stress tests. Results of these testings were used to calibrate a CDA model for INCO 718 alloy and to develop modifications or corrections to the CDA model to handle additional failure mechanisms. The Socie parameter was found to provide the best correlation for INCO multiaxial loading. Microstructural evaluations consisting of optical, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) techniques, and surface replication techniques to determine crack initiation lives provided data which were used to develop life prediction models.

  17. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  18. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  19. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    PubMed

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span. PMID:23528790

  20. Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality, environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories.

    PubMed

    Marshall, Dustin J; Burgess, Scott C

    2015-02-01

    Environmental predictability is predicted to shape the evolution of life histories. Two key types of environmental predictability, seasonality and environmental colour, may influence life-history evolution independently but formal considerations of both and how they relate to life history are exceedingly rare. Here, in a global biogeographical analysis of over 800 marine invertebrates, we explore the relationships between both forms of environmental predictability and three fundamental life-history traits: location of larval development (aplanktonic vs. planktonic), larval developmental mode (feeding vs. non-feeding) and offspring size. We found that both dispersal potential and offspring size related to environmental predictability, but the relationships depended on both the environmental factor as well as the type of predictability. Environments that were more seasonal in food availability had a higher prevalence of species with a planktonic larval stage. Future studies should consider both types of environmental predictability as each can strongly affect life-history evolution. PMID:25534504

  1. High temperature life prediction of monolithic silicon carbide heat exchanger tubes

    SciTech Connect

    Sandifer, J.B.; Edwards, M.J.; Brown, T.S. III; Duffy, S.F.

    1994-01-01

    The need for improved performance in high temperature environments is prompting industry to consider the use of structural ceramic materials in heat exchanger tubes and other high temperature components. ln recognition of this need the U. S. Department of Energy has supported work for the development of nondestructive methods for evaluating flaws in monolithic ceramic components and the associated establishment of criteria for the acceptance of flawed components. Under this development of flaw assessment criteria DOE supported the work being presented in this paper. The approach to developing the life prediction model combines finite element predictions considering creep behavior with continuum damage mechanics and Weibull reliability statistics. ABAQUS is used to predict time dependent creep response of the component based on experimental creep data. A continuity parameter is then calculated at each time step following continuum damage mechanics methods. Finally Weibull statistics are used with the resulting continuity parameter to predict the reliability at each time step through the use of the NASA-Lewis computer program CARES interfaced to ABAQUS with ABACARES. There is very limited data available to characterize the creep continuum damage and reliability behavior of the material. For the life prediction model reported it is assumed that the material damages isotropically. Directional effects of the damage can be added as material databases improve.

  2. Fatigue Life Prediction of Steel Bridges for Extreme Loading Using a New Damage Indicator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karunananda, Pallaha Athawudagedara Kamal; Ohga, Mitao; Dissanayake, Punchi Bandage Ranjith; Siriwardane, Siriwardane Arachchilage Sudath Chaminda

    High cycle fatigue (HCF) damage caused by normal traffic loading is one of the major modes of failures in steel bridges. During bridge service life, there are extreme loading situations such as typhoons, earthquakes which cause higher amplitude loading than normal traffic loading. Due to this reason, critical members could undergo overstress cycles in the plastic range. Therefore, such members are subjected to low cycle fatigue (LCF) during these situations while subjecting to HCF in serviceable condition. Bridges, which are not seriously damaged, generally continue to be functioned after these extreme loading situations and fatigue life estimation is required to ensure their safety. Therefore, this paper presents a new damage indicator based fatigue model to predict life of steel bridges due to combined effect of extreme and normal traffic loadings. It consists of a modified strain life curve and a strain based damage indicator. Both the strain life curve and the damage indicator are newly proposed in the study. Modified strain life curve consists of Coffin Manson relation in the LCF regime and a new strain life curve in the HCF regime. Damage variable is based on von Mises equivalent strain and modified by factors to consider effects of loading non proportionality and loading path in multiaxial stress state. The new damage indicator can capture the loading sequence effect. The proposed model is verified with experimental test results of combined HCF and LCF of three materials; S304L stainless steel, Haynes 188 (a Cobolt superalloy) and S45C steel obtained from the literature. The verification of experimental results confirms the validity of the proposed model.

  3. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  4. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  5. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storage cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    1987-01-01

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low Earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  6. A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thaller, Lawrence H.; Lim, Hong S.

    1987-01-01

    Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

  7. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    PubMed

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction. PMID:25141076

  8. Application of cyclic damage accumulation life prediction model to high temperature components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.

    1989-01-01

    A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, but it can be applied to other materials as well. The method is designed to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loading such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. Several features of this model were developed to make it practical for application to actual component analysis, such as the ability to handle nonisothermal loading (including TMF), arbitrary cycle paths, and multiple damage modes. The CDA life prediction model was derived from extensive specimen tests conducted on cast nickel-base superalloy B1900 + Hf. These included both monotonic tests (tensile and creep) and strain-controlled fatigue experiments (uniaxial, biaxial, TMF, mixed creep-fatigue, and controlled mean stress). Additional specimen tests were conducted on wrought INCO 718 to verify the applicability of the final CDA model to other high-temperature alloys. The model will be available to potential users in the near future in the form of a FORTRAN-77 computer program.

  9. Calculation of thermomechanical fatigue life based on isothermal behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.

    1987-01-01

    The isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation response of a hypothetical material was analyzed. Expected thermomechanical behavior was evaluated numerically based on simple, isothermal, cyclic stress-strain - time characteristics and on strainrange versus cyclic life relations that have been assigned to the material. The attempt was made to establish basic minimum requirements for the development of a physically accurate TMF life-prediction model. A worthy method must be able to deal with the simplest of conditions: that is, those for which thermal cycling, per se, introduces no damage mechanisms other than those found in isothermal behavior. Under these assumed conditions, the TMF life should be obtained uniquely from known isothermal behavior. The ramifications of making more complex assumptions will be dealt with in future studies. Although analyses are only in their early stages, considerable insight has been gained in understanding the characteristics of several existing high-temperature life-prediction methods. The present work indicates that the most viable damage parameter is based on the inelastic strainrange.

  10. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.; Phillips, E. P.; Swain, M. H.; Everett, R. A., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis.

  11. NDE: A key to engine rotor life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doherty, J. E.

    1977-01-01

    A key ingredient in the establishment of safe life times for critical components is the means of reliably detecting flaws which may potentially exist. Currently used nondestructive evaluation procedures are successful in detecting life limiting defects; however, the development of automated and computer aided NDE technology permits even greater assurance of flight safety.

  12. Creep-fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1982-01-01

    The objectives of this program are the investigation of fundamental approaches to high temperature crack initiation life prediction, identification of specific modeling strategies and the development of specific models for component relevant loading conditions. A survey of the hot section material/coating systems used throughout the gas turbine industry is included. Two material/coating systems will be identified for the program. The material/coating system designated as the base system shall be used throughout Tasks 1-12. The alternate material/coating system will be used only in Task 12 for further evaluation of the models developed on the base material. In Task II, candidate life prediction approaches will be screened based on a set of criteria that includes experience of the approaches within the literature, correlation with isothermal data generated on the base material, and judgements relative to the applicability of the approach for the complex cycles to be considered in the option program. The two most promising approaches will be identified. Task 3 further evaluates the best approach using additional base material fatigue testing including verification tests. Task 4 consists of technical, schedular, financial and all other reporting requirements in accordance with the Reports of Work clause.

  13. The Social Life of a Data Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linde, Charlotte; Wales, Roxana; Clancy, Dan (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents the complex social life of a large data base. The topics include: 1) Social Construction of Mechanisms of Memory; 2) Data Bases: The Invisible Memory Mechanism; 3) The Human in the Machine; 4) Data of the Study: A Large-Scale Problem Reporting Data Base; 5) The PRACA Study; 6) Description of PRACA; 7) PRACA and Paper; 8) Multiple Uses of PRACA; 9) The Work of PRACA; 10) Multiple Forms of Invisibility; 11) Such Systems are Everywhere; and 12) Two Morals to the Story. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  14. Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kececioglu, D.; Guerrieri, W. N.

    1971-01-01

    The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

  15. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

    1987-01-01

    The results are presented of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and fatigue data, tests were conducted on uncoated and coated specimens loaded in the CH76 100 CH110 , CH76 110 CH110 , CH76 111 CH110 and CH76 123 CH110 crystallographic directions. Two constitutive models are being developed and evaluated for the single crystal materials: a micromechanic model based on crystallographic slip systems, and a macroscopic model which employs anisotropic tensors to model inelastic deformation anisotropy. Based on tests conducted on the overlay coating material, constitutive models for coatings also appear feasible and two initial models were selected. A life prediction approach was proposed for coated single crystal materials, including crack initiation either in the coating or in the substrate. The coating initiated failures dominated in the tests at load levels typical of gas turbine operation. Coating life was related to coating stress/strain history which was determined from specimen data using the constitutive models.

  16. Predicting future years of healthy life for older adults.

    PubMed

    Diehr, P; Patrick, D L; Bild, D E; Burke, G L; Williamson, J D

    1998-04-01

    Cost-effectiveness studies often need to compare the cost of a program to the lifetime benefits of the program, but estimates of lifetime benefits are not routinely available, especially for older adults. We used data from two large longitudinal studies of older adults (ages 65-100) to estimate transition probabilities from one health state to another, and used those probabilities to estimate the mean additional years of healthy life that an older adult of specified age, sex, and health status would experience. We found, for example, that 65-year-old women in excellent health can expect 16.8 years of healthy life in the future, compared to only 8.5 years for women in poor health. We also provide estimates of discounted years of healthy life and future life expectancy. These estimates may be used to extend the effective length of the study period in cost-effectiveness studies, to examine the impact of chronic diseases or risk factors on years of healthy life, or to investigate the relationship of years of life to years of healthy life. Several applications are described. PMID:9539891

  17. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  18. Age at the onset of senescence in birds and mammals is predicted by early-life performance

    PubMed Central

    Péron, Guillaume; Gimenez, Olivier; Charmantier, Anne; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Crochet, Pierre-André

    2010-01-01

    Life-history theory predicts that traits involved in maturity, reproduction and survival correlate along a fast–slow continuum of life histories. Evolutionary theories and empirical results indicate that senescence-related traits vary along this continuum, with slow species senescing later and at a slower pace than fast species. Because senescence patterns are typically difficult to estimate from studies in the wild, here we propose to predict the associated trait values in the frame of life-history theory. From a comparative analysis based on 81 free-ranging populations of 72 species of birds and mammals, we find that a nonlinear combination of fecundity, age at first reproduction and survival over the immature stage can account for ca two-thirds of the variance in the age at the onset of actuarial senescence. Our life-history model performs better than a model predicting the onset based on generation time, and it only includes life-history traits during early life as explanatory variables, i.e. parameters that are both theoretically expected to shape senescence and are measurable within relatively short studies. We discuss the good-fit of our life-history model to the available data in the light of current evolutionary theories of senescence. We further use it to evaluate whether studies that provided no evidence for senescence lasted long enough to include the onset of senescence. PMID:20427343

  19. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Third year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

    1985-01-01

    This program is designed to investigate fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines. A review is given of the base program, completed in 1984, which included the comparison and evaluation of several popular high-temperature life prediction approaches as applied to continuously cycled isothermal specimen tests. The option program, of which one year is completed, is designed to develop models which can account for complex cycles and loadings, such as thermomechanical cycling, cumulative damage, multiaxial stress/strain rates, and environmental effects.

  20. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  1. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  2. Dispersal syndromes and the use of life-histories to predict dispersal.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Virginie M; Trochet, Audrey; Blanchet, Simon; Moulherat, Sylvain; Clobert, Jean; Baguette, Michel

    2013-06-01

    Due to its impact on local adaptation, population functioning or range shifts, dispersal is considered a central process for population persistence and species evolution. However, measuring dispersal is complicated, which justifies the use of dispersal proxies. Although appealing, and despite its general relationship with dispersal, body size has however proven unsatisfactory as a dispersal proxy. Our hypothesis here is that, given the existence of dispersal syndromes, suites of life-history traits may be alternative, more appropriate proxies for dispersal. We tested this idea by using butterflies as a model system. We demonstrate that different elements of the dispersal process (i.e., individual movement rates, distances, and gene flow) are correlated with different suites of life-history traits: these various elements of dispersal form separate syndromes and must be considered real axes of a species' niche. We then showed that these syndromes allowed accurate predictions of dispersal. The use of life-history traits improved the precision of the inferences made from wing size alone by up to five times. Such trait-based predictions thus provided reliable dispersal inferences that can feed simulation models aiming at investigating the dynamics and evolution of butterfly populations, and possibly of other organisms, under environmental changes, to help their conservation. PMID:23789030

  3. Dispersal syndromes and the use of life-histories to predict dispersal

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Virginie M; Trochet, Audrey; Blanchet, Simon; Moulherat, Sylvain; Clobert, Jean; Baguette, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Due to its impact on local adaptation, population functioning or range shifts, dispersal is considered a central process for population persistence and species evolution. However, measuring dispersal is complicated, which justifies the use of dispersal proxies. Although appealing, and despite its general relationship with dispersal, body size has however proven unsatisfactory as a dispersal proxy. Our hypothesis here is that, given the existence of dispersal syndromes, suites of life-history traits may be alternative, more appropriate proxies for dispersal. We tested this idea by using butterflies as a model system. We demonstrate that different elements of the dispersal process (i.e., individual movement rates, distances, and gene flow) are correlated with different suites of life-history traits: these various elements of dispersal form separate syndromes and must be considered real axes of a species' niche. We then showed that these syndromes allowed accurate predictions of dispersal. The use of life-history traits improved the precision of the inferences made from wing size alone by up to five times. Such trait-based predictions thus provided reliable dispersal inferences that can feed simulation models aiming at investigating the dynamics and evolution of butterfly populations, and possibly of other organisms, under environmental changes, to help their conservation. PMID:23789030

  4. Life systems for a lunar base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Mark; Hawes, Philip B.; Augustine, Margret

    1992-01-01

    The Biosphere 2 project is pioneering work on life systems that can serve as a prototype for long-term habitation on the Moon. This project will also facilitate the understanding of the smaller systems that will be needed for initial lunar base life-support functions. In its recommendation for a policy for the next 50 years in space, the National Commission on Space urged, 'To explore and settle the inner Solar System, we must develop biospheres of smaller size, and learn how to build and maintain them' (National Commission on Space, 1986). The Biosphere 2 project, along with its Biospheric Research and Development Center, is a materially closed and informationally and energetically open system capable of supporting a human crew of eight, undertaking work to meet this need. This paper gives an overview of the Space Biospheres Ventures' endeavor and its lunar applications.

  5. Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

    2006-01-01

    The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

  6. Towards Practical Carbonation Prediction and Modelling for Service Life Design of Reinforced Concrete Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekolu, O. S.

    2015-11-01

    Amongst the scientific community, the interest in durability of concrete structures has been high for quite a long time of over 40 years. Of the various causes of degradation of concrete structures, corrosion is the most widespread durability problem and carbonation is one of the two causes of steel reinforcement corrosion. While much scientific understanding has been gained from the numerous carbonation studies undertaken over the past years, it is still presently not possible to accurately predict carbonation and apply it in design of structures. This underscores the complex nature of the mechanisms as influenced by several interactive factors. Based on critical literature and some experience of the author, it is found that there still exist major challenges in establishing a mathematical constitutive relation for realistic carbonation prediction. While most current models employ permeability /diffusion as the main model property, analysis shows that the most practical material property would be compressive strength, which has a low coefficient of variation of 20% compared to 30 to 50% for permeability. This important characteristic of compressive strength, combined with its merit of simplicity and data availability at all stages of a structure's life, promote its potential use in modelling over permeability. By using compressive strength in carbonation prediction, the need for accelerated testing and permeability measurement can be avoided. This paper attempts to examine the issues associated with carbonation prediction, which could underlie the current lack of a sound established prediction method. Suggestions are then made for possible employment of different or alternative approaches.

  7. Temperament and Parenting during the First Year of Life Predict Future Child Conduct Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J.; D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D.

    2008-01-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct…

  8. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  9. Drift and diffusion coefficients of Markov diffusional process in problems of predicting the life of atomic-power-plant equipment

    SciTech Connect

    Emel'yanov, V.S.; Klemin, A.I.; Rabchun, A.V.

    1987-06-01

    The authors construct a statistical model based on the Markov diffusion process and the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation for forecasting the remaining service life of reactor components. The model is one-dimensional and allows changes in the probabilistic characteristics of random aging processes of individual mechanical systems to be predicted with sufficient accuracy for engineering purposes.

  10. Life prediction of thermal-mechanical fatigue using strain-range partitioning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, G. R.; Manson, S. S.

    1975-01-01

    The applicability is described of the method of Strainrange Partitioning to the life prediction of thermal-mechanical strain-cycling fatigue. An in-phase test on 316 stainless steel is analyzed as an illustrative example. The observed life is in excellent agreement with the life predicted by the method using the recently proposed Step-Stress Method of experimental partitioning, the Interation Damage Rule, and the life relationships determined at an isothermal temperature of 705 C. Implications of the study are discussed relative to the general thermal fatigue problem.

  11. A combined approach to buffet response analyses and fatigue life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, J. H.; Perez, R.

    1994-03-01

    Experimental measurement and neural network based prediction of wind tunnel model empennage random pressures are discussed. Artificially generated neural network power spectral densities of surface pressures are used to augment existing data and then load an elastic finite element model to obtain response spectra. Details on the use of actual response spectra from flight test data are also discussed. A random spectra fatigue method is described which effectively combines buffet and maneuver loads into a time series based on aircraft usage data. A peak-valley damage analysis procedure is employed to compute the aggregate fatigue life of the structure based on five combined load time series information. Applications of the method as a continual learning tool for buffet response spectra is elaborated.

  12. Predicting professional quality of life among professional and volunteer caregivers.

    PubMed

    Avieli, Hila; Ben-David, Sarah; Levy, Inna

    2016-01-01

    This study is one of the few that has compared volunteers' professional quality of life (PQL), which includes secondary traumatic stress (STS), burnout, and compassion satisfaction (CS), to those of professional caregivers. In addition, the research compared the ethical behavior of volunteers with that of professional therapists and examined the connection between years of experience, ethical behavior, and PQL. One hundred eighty-three volunteers and professional caregivers filled out a sociodemographic questionnaire, an Ethical Behavior Questionnaire and the Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL) questionnaire. The results indicated that professional caregivers report lower levels of STS and burnout, and higher levels of CS and ethical behavior compared with volunteer caregivers. Moreover, the findings suggest that ethical behavior correlates with STS, burnout, and CS. Ethical behavior has a protective value for mental health caregivers. The discussion emphasizes the value of a professional code of ethics and ethical training for professional and volunteering caregivers. PMID:26121172

  13. Factors Predicting Life Satisfaction: A Process Model of Personality, Multidimensional Self-Concept, and Life Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Philip D.; Martin, Andrew J.; Marsh, Herbert W.

    2008-01-01

    Life satisfaction is an important component of psychological health and wellbeing. Although personality is consistently linked to life satisfaction, its "innate" and stable nature can make it a difficult target for intervention by practitioners. More malleable and context-specific factors such as multidimensional self-concept may prove…

  14. Late-life Depressive Symptoms: Prediction Models of Change

    PubMed Central

    García-Peña, Carmen; Wagner, Fernando A.; Sánchez-García, Sergio; Espinel-Bermúdez, Claudia; Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa; Pérez-Zepeda, Mario; Arango-Lopera, Victoria; Franco-Marina, Francisco; Ramírez-Aldana, Ricardo; Gallo, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Background Depression is a well-recognised problem in the elderly. The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with predictors of change in depressive symptoms, both in subjects with and without baseline significant depressive symptoms. Methods Longitudinal study of community-dwelling elderly people (>60 years or older), baseline evaluations, and two additional evaluations were reported. Depressive symptoms were measured using a 30-item Geriatric Depression Scale, and a score of 11 was used as cutoff point for significant depressive symptoms in order to stratify the analyses in two groups: with significant depressive symptoms and without significant depressive symptoms. Sociodemographic data, social support, anxiety, cognition, positive affect, control locus, activities of daily living, recent traumatic life events, physical activity, comorbidities, and quality of life were evaluated. Multi-level generalised estimating equation model was used to assess the impact on the trajectory of depressive symptoms. Results 7,882 subjects were assessed, with 29.42% attrition. At baseline assessment, mean age was 70.96 years, 61.15% were women. Trajectories of depressive symptoms had a decreasing trend. Stronger associations in those with significant depressive symptoms, were social support (OR .971, p<.001), chronic pain (OR 2.277, p<.001) and higher locus of control (OR .581, p<.001). In contrast for those without baseline significant depressive symptoms anxiety and a higher locus of control were the strongest associations. Conclusions New insights into late-life depression are provided, with special emphasis in differentiated factors influencing the trajectory when stratifying regarding basal status of significant depressive symptoms. Limitations The study has not included clinical evaluations and nutritional assessments PMID:23731940

  15. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Two year update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, V.

    1984-01-01

    Requirements for increased durability of gas turbine hot section components have placed a greater degree of importance on accurate structural analysis and life prediction. Various life prediction approaches for high temperature applications were investigated. Basic models were selected and developed for simple-cycle, isothermal loading conditions. Models will be developed which address thermomechanical cycling, multiaxial conditions, cumulative loading, environmental effects, and cyclic mean stress. Verification tests of models will be conducted on an alternate material and coating system.

  16. The LIFE computer code: Fatigue life prediction for vertical axis wind turbine components

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, H.J.; Ashwill, T.D.; Slack, N.

    1987-08-01

    The LIFE computer code was originally written by Veers to analyze the fatigue life of a vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) blade. The basic assumptions built into this analysis tool are: the fatigue life of a blade component is independent of the mean stress; the frequency distribution of the vibratory stresses may be described adequately by a Rayleigh probability density function; and damage accumulates linearly (Miner's Rule). Further, the yearly distribution of wind is assumed to follow a Rayleigh distribution. The original program has been updated to run in an interactive mode on a personal computer with a BASIC interpreter and 256K RAM. Additional capabilities included in this update include: the generalization of the Rayleigh function for the wind speed distribution to a Weibull function; the addition of two constitutive rules for the evaluation of the effects of mean stress on fatigue life; interactive data input; and the inclusion of a stress concentration factor into the analysis.

  17. Use of strainrange partitioning to predict high temperature low-cycle fatigue life. [of metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirschberg, M. H.; Halford, G. R.

    1976-01-01

    The fundamental concepts of the strainrange partitioning approach to high temperature, low low-cycle fatigue are reviewed. Procedures are presented by which the partitioned strainrange versus life relationships for any material can be generated. Laboratory tests are suggested for further verifying the ability of the method of strainrange partitioning to predict life.

  18. Predicting Trajectories of Offending over the Life Course: Findings from a Dutch Conviction Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bersani, Bianca E.; Nieuwbeerta, Paul; Laub, John H.

    2009-01-01

    Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course, especially the prediction of high-rate offenders, has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Motivated by a recent study by Sampson and Laub (2003), this study uses longitudinal data on conviction histories from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course…

  19. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  20. Fundamental understanding and life prediction of stress corrosion cracking in BWRs and energy systems

    SciTech Connect

    Andresen, P.L.; Ford, F.P.

    1998-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an approach for design and lifetime evaluation of environmental cracking based on experimental and fundamental modeling of the underlying processes operative in crack advance. In detailed this approach and its development and quantification for energy (hot water) systems, the requirements for a life prediction methodology will be highlighted and the shortcomings of the existing design and lifetime evaluation codes reviewed. Examples are identified of its use in a variety of cracking systems, such as stainless steels, low alloy steels, nickel base alloys, and irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking in boiling water reactor (BWR) water, as well as preliminary use for low alloy steel and Alloy 600 in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and turbine steels in steam turbines. Identification of the common aspects with environmental cracking in other hot water systems provides a secure basis for its extension to related energy systems. 166 refs., 49 figs.

  1. Predicting 6-week treatment response to escitalopram pharmacotherapy in late-life major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    Saghafi, Ramin; Brown, Charlotte; Butters, Meryl A.; Cyranowski, Jill; Dew, Mary Amanda; Frank, Ellen; Gildengers, Ariel; Karp, Jordan F.; Lenze, Eric J.; Lotrich, Francis; Martire, Lynn; Mazumdar, Sati; Miller, Mark D.; Mulsant, Benoit H.; Weber, Elizabeth; Whyte, Ellen; Morse, Jennifer; Stack, Jacqueline; Houck, Patricia R.; Bensasi, Salem; Reynolds, Charles F.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY Objective Approximately half of older patients treated for major depressive disorder (MDD) do not achieve symptomatic remission and functional recovery with first-line pharmacotherapy. This study aims to characterize sociodemographic, clinical, and neuropsychologic correlates of full, partial, and non-response to escitalopram monotherapy of unipolar MDD in later life. Methods One hundred and seventy-five patients aged 60 and older were assessed at baseline on demographic variables, depression severity, hopelessness, anxiety, cognitive functioning, co-existing medical illness burden, social support, and quality of life (disability). Subjects received 10 mg/d of open-label escitalopram and were divided into full (n =55; 31%), partial (n =75; 42.9%), and non-responder (n =45; 25.7%) groups based on Hamilton depression scores at week 6. Univariate followed by multivariate analyses tested for differences between the three groups. Results Non-responders to treatment were found to be more severely depressed and anxious at baseline than both full and partial responders, more disabled, and with lower self-esteem than full responders. In general partial responders resembled full responders more than they resembled non-responders. In multivariate models, more severe anxiety symptoms (both psychological and somatic) and lower self-esteem predicted worse response status at 6 weeks. Conclusion Among treatment-seeking elderly persons with MDD, higher anxiety symptoms and lower self-esteem predict poorer response after six weeks of escitalopram treatment. PMID:17486678

  2. NASALife-Component Fatigue and Creep Life Prediction Program and Illustrative Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.

    2005-01-01

    NASALife is a life prediction program for propulsion system components made of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) under cyclic thermo-mechanical loading and creep rupture conditions. Although, the primary focus was for CMC components the underlying methodologies are equally applicable to other material systems as well. The program references data for low cycle fatigue (LCF), creep rupture, and static material properties as part of the life prediction process. Multiaxial stresses are accommodated by Von Mises based methods and a Walker model is used to address mean stress effects. Varying loads are reduced by the Rainflow counting method. Lastly, damage due to cyclic loading (Miner s rule) and creep are combined to determine the total damage per mission and the number of missions the component can survive before failure are calculated. Illustration of code usage is provided through example problem of a CMC turbine stator vane made of melt-infiltrated, silicon carbide fiber-reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composite (MI SiC/SiC)

  3. Contact Stress Analysis and Fatigue Life Prediction of a Turbine Fan Disc

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Liang; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Lv, Zhiqiang; Zuo, Fang-Jun; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    Fan discs are critical components of an aero engine. In this paper, contact stress and life prediction of a turbine fan disc were investigated. A simplified pin/disc model was conducted to simulate the practical working condition under applied loads using finite element (FE) analysis. This study is devoted to examining the effects of interface condition of pin/disc such as gap and coefficient upon the maximum stress. The FE model indicated that the maximum stress occurs at the top right corner in the second pin hole, and larger gap or friction coefficient has a significant effect on the maximum stress. In addition, FE analysis without considering friction is also conducted. The results show that the dangerous point is similar to the result which considers friction and the stress state is relatively larger than that of considering friction. Finally, based on FE analysis result, life prediction for the fan disc is conducted to combine the material S-N curve, mean stress effects and concentration stress factor obtained by means of FE method.

  4. A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

    1992-01-01

    A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

  5. A Fatigue Life Prediction Model of Welded Joints under Combined Cyclic Loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goes, Keurrie C.; Camarao, Arnaldo F.; Pereira, Marcos Venicius S.; Ferreira Batalha, Gilmar

    2011-01-01

    A practical and robust methodology is developed to evaluate the fatigue life in seam welded joints when subjected to combined cyclic loading. The fatigue analysis was conducted in virtual environment. The FE stress results from each loading were imported to fatigue code FE-Fatigue and combined to perform the fatigue life prediction using the S x N (stress x life) method. The measurement or modelling of the residual stresses resulting from the welded process is not part of this work. However, the thermal and metallurgical effects, such as distortions and residual stresses, were considered indirectly through fatigue curves corrections in the samples investigated. A tube-plate specimen was submitted to combined cyclic loading (bending and torsion) with constant amplitude. The virtual durability analysis result was calibrated based on these laboratory tests and design codes such as BS7608 and Eurocode 3. The feasibility and application of the proposed numerical-experimental methodology and contributions for the technical development are discussed. Major challenges associated with this modelling and improvement proposals are finally presented.

  6. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  7. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability.

  8. Planner-Based Control of Advanced Life Support Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muscettola, Nicola; Kortenkamp, David; Fry, Chuck; Bell, Scott

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an approach to the integration of qualitative and quantitative modeling techniques for advanced life support (ALS) systems. Developing reliable control strategies that scale up to fully integrated life support systems requires augmenting quantitative models and control algorithms with the abstractions provided by qualitative, symbolic models and their associated high-level control strategies. This will allow for effective management of the combinatorics due to the integration of a large number of ALS subsystems. By focusing control actions at different levels of detail and reactivity we can use faster: simpler responses at the lowest level and predictive but complex responses at the higher levels of abstraction. In particular, methods from model-based planning and scheduling can provide effective resource management over long time periods. We describe reference implementation of an advanced control system using the IDEA control architecture developed at NASA Ames Research Center. IDEA uses planning/scheduling as the sole reasoning method for predictive and reactive closed loop control. We describe preliminary experiments in planner-based control of ALS carried out on an integrated ALS simulation developed at NASA Johnson Space Center.

  9. Fatigue-Life Prediction Methodology Using Small-Crack Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newmann, James C., Jr.; Phillips, Edward P.; Swain, M. H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews the capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict fatigue lives of metallic materials using 'small-crack theory' for various materials and loading conditions. Crack-tip constraint factors, to account for three-dimensional state-of-stress effects, were selected to correlate large-crack growth rate data as a function of the effective-stress-intensity factor range (delta K(eff)) under constant-amplitude loading. Some modifications to the delta k(eff)-rate relations were needed in the near-threshold regime to fit measured small-crack growth rate behavior and fatigue endurance limits. The model was then used to calculate small- and large-crack growth rates, and to predict total fatigue lives, for notched and un-notched specimens made of two aluminum alloys and a steel under constant-amplitude and spectrum loading. Fatigue lives were calculated using the crack-growth relations and microstructural features like those that initiated cracks for the aluminum alloys and steel for edge-notched specimens. An equivalent-initial-flaw-size concept was used to calculate fatigue lives in other cases. Results from the tests and analyses agreed well.

  10. Knowledge-based fragment binding prediction.

    PubMed

    Tang, Grace W; Altman, Russ B

    2014-04-01

    Target-based drug discovery must assess many drug-like compounds for potential activity. Focusing on low-molecular-weight compounds (fragments) can dramatically reduce the chemical search space. However, approaches for determining protein-fragment interactions have limitations. Experimental assays are time-consuming, expensive, and not always applicable. At the same time, computational approaches using physics-based methods have limited accuracy. With increasing high-resolution structural data for protein-ligand complexes, there is now an opportunity for data-driven approaches to fragment binding prediction. We present FragFEATURE, a machine learning approach to predict small molecule fragments preferred by a target protein structure. We first create a knowledge base of protein structural environments annotated with the small molecule substructures they bind. These substructures have low-molecular weight and serve as a proxy for fragments. FragFEATURE then compares the structural environments within a target protein to those in the knowledge base to retrieve statistically preferred fragments. It merges information across diverse ligands with shared substructures to generate predictions. Our results demonstrate FragFEATURE's ability to rediscover fragments corresponding to the ligand bound with 74% precision and 82% recall on average. For many protein targets, it identifies high scoring fragments that are substructures of known inhibitors. FragFEATURE thus predicts fragments that can serve as inputs to fragment-based drug design or serve as refinement criteria for creating target-specific compound libraries for experimental or computational screening. PMID:24762971

  11. Study of the spiritual intelligence role in predicting university students' quality of life.

    PubMed

    Bolghan-Abadi, Mustafa; Ghofrani, Fatemeh; Abde-Khodaei, Mohammad Saeed

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate the spiritual intelligence role in predicting Quchan University students' quality of life. In order to collect data, a sample of 143 students of Quechan University was selected randomly enrolled for 89-90 academic year. The instruments of the data collecting are World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL) and Spiritual Intelligence Questionnaire. For analyzing the data, the standard deviation, and Pearson's correlation coefficient in descriptive level, and in inferential level, the regression test was used. The results of the study show that the spiritual intelligence has effective role on predicting quality of life. PMID:22528289

  12. Latex rubber condoms: predicting and extending shelf life.

    PubMed

    Free, M J; Srisamang, V; Vail, J; Mercer, D; Kotz, R; Marlowe, D E

    1996-04-01

    Condoms from five manufacturers were subjected to controlled exposures of heat, humidity, and air and to different natural environments in five countries. Under aerobic conditions (condoms in permeable packages or unpackaged), stress properties declined. The relationship between rate of decline as a function of temperature was quadratic. Under oxygen-restricted conditions (foil-wrapped packages) at average storage temperatures of 30 degrees C and lower, strain properties declined with little or no significant change in stress properties. The effect is to cause condoms to become stiffer; high-breakage rates in use have been correlated with product stiffening. A new rationale for accelerated-aging tests to predict condom shelf stability is suggested, including a test to control the trend of condoms to stiffen. Silicone lubricant, impermeable packaging, and inclusion of antioxidants in the condom formulation can prevent or minimize aerobic breakdown of latex condoms. Specifying low-modulus condoms can prevent excessive stiffening. PMID:8706440

  13. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (ISOTROPIC)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Schoendorf, J. F.; Lin, L. S.

    1986-01-01

    The specific activities summarized include: verification experiments (base program); thermomechanical cycling model; multiaxial stress state model; cumulative loading model; screening of potential environmental and protective coating models; and environmental attack model.

  14. A Micromechanics-Based Method for Multiscale Fatigue Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, John Allan

    An estimated 80% of all structural failures are due to mechanical fatigue, often resulting in catastrophic, dangerous and costly failure events. However, an accurate model to predict fatigue remains an elusive goal. One of the major challenges is that fatigue is intrinsically a multiscale process, which is dependent on a structure's geometric design as well as its material's microscale morphology. The following work begins with a microscale study of fatigue nucleation around non- metallic inclusions. Based on this analysis, a novel multiscale method for fatigue predictions is developed. This method simulates macroscale geometries explicitly while concurrently calculating the simplified response of microscale inclusions. Thus, providing adequate detail on multiple scales for accurate fatigue life predictions. The methods herein provide insight into the multiscale nature of fatigue, while also developing a tool to aid in geometric design and material optimization for fatigue critical devices such as biomedical stents and artificial heart valves.

  15. Predicting Learned Helplessness Based on Personality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maadikhah, Elham; Erfani, Nasrollah

    2014-01-01

    Learned helplessness as a negative motivational state can latently underlie repeated failures and create negative feelings toward the education as well as depression in students and other members of a society. The purpose of this paper is to predict learned helplessness based on students' personality traits. The research is a predictive…

  16. Uncertainty Analysis in Fatigue Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Blades Using Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Li, Jing; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2015-12-01

    This paper investigates Bayesian model selection for fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades is a critical issue for the operation and health management of modern aircraft engines. Since lots of life prediction models have been presented to predict the fatigue life of gas turbine blades, model uncertainty and model selection among these models have consequently become an important issue in the lifecycle management of turbine blades. In this paper, fatigue life estimation is carried out by considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty simultaneously. It is formulated as the joint posterior distribution of a fatigue life prediction model and its model parameters using Bayesian inference method. Bayes factor is incorporated to implement the model selection with the quantified model uncertainty. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to facilitate the calculation. A pictorial framework and a step-by-step procedure of the Bayesian inference method for fatigue life estimation considering model uncertainty are presented. Fatigue life estimation of a gas turbine blade is implemented to demonstrate the proposed method.

  17. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas temperature airfoils. Two single crystal alloys and two coatings are now being tested. These include PWA 1480; Alloy 185; overlay coating, PWA 286; and aluminide coating, PWA 273. Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the plastic and creep strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularily important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system.

  18. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  19. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. S.; Levan, G. W.; Schoendorf, J. F.

    1992-01-01

    A series of high temperature strain controlled fatigue tests have been completed to study the effects of thermomechanical fatigue, multiaxial loading, reactive environments, and imposed mean stresses. The baseline alloy used in these tests was cast B1900+Hf (with and without coatings); a small number of tests of wrought INCO 718 are also included. A strong path dependence was demonstrated during the thermomechanical fatigue testing, using in-phase, out-phase, and non-proportional (elliptical and 'dogleg') strain-temperature cycles. The multiaxial tests also demonstrated cycle path to be a significant variable, using both proportional and non-proportional tension-torsion loading. Environmental screening tests were conducted in moderate pressure oxygen and purified argon; the oxygen reduced the specimen lives by two, while the argon testing produced ambiguous data. Both NiCoCrAlY overlay and diffusion aluminide coatings were evaluated under isothermal and TMF conditions; in general, the lives of the coated specimens were higher that those of uncoated specimens. Controlled mean stress TMF tests showed that small mean stress changes could change initiation lives by orders of magnitude; these results are not conservatively predicted using traditional linear damage summation rules. Microstructures were evaluated using optical, SEM and TEM methods.

  20. TMC Behavior Modeling and Life Prediction Under Multiaxial Stresses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merrick, H. F.; Aksoy, S. Z.; Costen, M.; Ahmad, J.

    1998-01-01

    The goal of this program was to manufacture and burst test small diameter SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V composite rings for use in the design of an advanced titanium matrix composite (TMC) impeller. The Textron Specialty Metals grooved foil-fiber process was successfully used to make high quality TMC rings. A novel spin test arbor with "soft touch" fingers to retain the TMC ring was designed and manufactured. The design of the arbor took into account its use for cyclic experiments as well as ring burst tests. Spin testing of the instrumented ring was performed at ambient, 149C (300F), and 316C (600F) temperatures. Assembly vibration was encountered during spin testing but this was overcome through simple modification of the arbor. A spin-to-burst test was successfully completed at 316C (600F). The rotational speed of the TMC ring at burst was close to that predicted. In addition to the spin test program, a number of SCS-6/Ti-6Al-4V test panels were made. Neat Ti-6Al-4V panels also were made.

  1. Empirical modeling of environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation in structural alloys for component life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richey, Edward, III

    1995-01-01

    This research aims to develop the methods and understanding needed to incorporate time and loading variable dependent environmental effects on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) into computerized fatigue life prediction codes such as NASA FLAGRO (NASGRO). In particular, the effect of loading frequency on FCP rates in alpha + beta titanium alloys exposed to an aqueous chloride solution is investigated. The approach couples empirical modeling of environmental FCP with corrosion fatigue experiments. Three different computer models have been developed and incorporated in the DOS executable program. UVAFAS. A multiple power law model is available, and can fit a set of fatigue data to a multiple power law equation. A model has also been developed which implements the Wei and Landes linear superposition model, as well as an interpolative model which can be utilized to interpolate trends in fatigue behavior based on changes in loading characteristics (stress ratio, frequency, and hold times).

  2. Prediction of rigid silica based insulation conductivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Stanley D.; Curry, Donald M.

    1993-01-01

    A method is presented for predicting the thermal conductivity of low density, silica based fibrous insulators. It is shown that the method can be used to extend data values to the upper material temperature limits from those obtained from the test data. It is demonstrated that once the conductivity is accurately determined by the analytical model the conductivity for other atmospheres can be predicted. The method is similar to that presented by previous investigators, but differs significantly in the contribution due to gas and internal radiation.

  3. Validation of Framework Code Approach to a Life Prediction System for Fiber Reinforced Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gravett, Phillip

    1997-01-01

    The grant was conducted by the MMC Life Prediction Cooperative, an industry/government collaborative team, Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) acted as the prime contractor on behalf of the Cooperative for this grant effort. See Figure I for the organization and responsibilities of team members. The technical effort was conducted during the period August 7, 1995 to June 30, 1996 in cooperation with Erwin Zaretsky, the LERC Program Monitor. Phil Gravett of Pratt & Whitney was the principal technical investigator. Table I documents all meeting-related coordination memos during this period. The effort under this grant was closely coordinated with an existing USAF sponsored program focused on putting into practice a life prediction system for turbine engine components made of metal matrix composites (MMC). The overall architecture of the NMC life prediction system was defined in the USAF sponsored program (prior to this grant). The efforts of this grant were focussed on implementing and tailoring of the life prediction system, the framework code within it and the damage modules within it to meet the specific requirements of the Cooperative. T'he tailoring of the life prediction system provides the basis for pervasive and continued use of this capability by the industry/government cooperative. The outputs of this grant are: 1. Definition of the framework code to analysis modules interfaces, 2. Definition of the interface between the materials database and the finite element model, and 3. Definition of the integration of the framework code into an FEM design tool.

  4. Life prediction of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect for solid oxide fuel cell applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. N.; Sun, X.; Stephens, E.; Khaleel, M. A.

    In this paper, we present an integrated experimental and modeling methodology in predicting the life of coated and uncoated metallic interconnect (IC) for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) applications. The ultimate goal is to provide cell designer and manufacture with a predictive methodology such that the life of the IC system can be managed and optimized through different coating thickness to meet the overall cell designed life. Crofer 22 APU is used as the example IC material system. The life of coated and uncoated Crofer 22 APU under isothermal cooling was predicted by comparing the predicted interfacial strength and the interfacial stresses induced by the cooling process from the operating temperature to room temperature, together with the measured oxide scale growth kinetics. It was found that the interfacial strength between the oxide scale and the Crofer 22 APU substrate decreases with the growth of the oxide scale, and that the interfacial strength for the oxide scale/spinel coating interface is much higher than that of the oxide scale/Crofer 22 APU substrate interface. As expected, the predicted life of the coated Crofer 22 APU is significantly longer than that of the uncoated Crofer 22 APU.

  5. Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2003-01-01

    This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

  6. Highway traffic noise prediction based on GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jianghua; Qin, Qiming

    2014-05-01

    Before building a new road, we need to predict the traffic noise generated by vehicles. Traditional traffic noise prediction methods are based on certain locations and they are not only time-consuming, high cost, but also cannot be visualized. Geographical Information System (GIS) can not only solve the problem of manual data processing, but also can get noise values at any point. The paper selected a road segment from Wenxi to Heyang. According to the geographical overview of the study area and the comparison between several models, we combine the JTG B03-2006 model and the HJ2.4-2009 model to predict the traffic noise depending on the circumstances. Finally, we interpolate the noise values at each prediction point and then generate contours of noise. By overlaying the village data on the noise contour layer, we can get the thematic maps. The use of GIS for road traffic noise prediction greatly facilitates the decision-makers because of GIS spatial analysis function and visualization capabilities. We can clearly see the districts where noise are excessive, and thus it becomes convenient to optimize the road line and take noise reduction measures such as installing sound barriers and relocating villages and so on.

  7. A T-EOF Based Prediction Method.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yung-An

    2002-01-01

    A new statistical time series prediction method based on temporal empirical orthogonal function (T-EOF) is introduced in this study. This method first applies singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to extract dominant T-EOFs from historical data. Then, the most recent data are projected onto an optimal subset of the T-EOFs to estimate the corresponding temporal principal components (T-PCs). Finally, a forecast is constructed from these T-EOFs and T-PCs. Results from forecast experiments on the El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) indices from 1993 to 2000 showed that this method consistently yielded better correlation skill than autoregressive models for a lead time longer than 6 months. Furthermore, the correlation skills of this method in predicting Niño-3 index remained above 0.5 for a lead time up to 36 months during this period. However, this method still encountered the `spring barrier' problem. Because the 1990s exhibited relatively weak spring barrier, these results indicate that the T-EOF based prediction method has certain extended forecasting capability in the period when the spring barrier is weak. They also suggest that the potential predictability of ENSO in a certain period may be longer than previously thought.

  8. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, T.; Trunova, O.; Herzog, R.; Singheiser, L.

    2012-10-01

    The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC) system consisted of (i) an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC) applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS) and (ii) an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ) top coat air plasma sprayed (APS) at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1). The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT), acoustic emission (AE) analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  9. Cognitive styles and life events interact to predict bipolar and unipolar symptomatology.

    PubMed

    Reilly-Harrington, N A; Alloy, L B; Fresco, D M; Whitehouse, W G

    1999-11-01

    This study examined the interaction of cognitive style (as assessed self-report and information-processing battery) and stressful life events in predicting the clinician-rated depressive and manic symptomatology of participants with Research Diagnostic Criteria lifetime diagnoses of bipolar disorder (n = 49), unipolar depression (n = 97), or no lifetime diagnosis (n = 23). Bipolar and unipolar participants' attributional styles, dysfunctional attitudes, and negative self-referent information processing as assessed at Time 1 interacted significantly with the number of negative life events that occurred between Times 1 and 2 to predict increases in depressive symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. Within the bipolar group, participants' Time 1 attributional styles and dysfunctional attitudes interacted significantly, and their self-referent information processing interacted marginally, with intervening life events to predict increases in manic symptoms from Time 1 to Time 2. These findings provide support for the applicability of cognitive vulnerability-stress theories of depression to bipolar spectrum disorders. PMID:10609421

  10. A New Ductility Exhaustion Model for High Temperature Low Cycle Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Disk Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Haiqing; Sun, Rui; Zuo, Ming J.

    2011-06-01

    Based on ductility exhaustion theory and the generalized energy-based damage parameter, a new viscosity-based life prediction model is introduced to account for the mean strain/stress effects in the low cycle fatigue regime. The loading waveform parameters and cyclic hardening effects are also incorporated within this model. It is assumed that damage accrues by means of viscous flow and ductility consumption is only related to plastic strain and creep strain under high temperature low cycle fatigue conditions. In the developed model, dynamic viscosity is used to describe the flow behavior. This model provides a better prediction of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior when compared to Goswami's ductility model and the generalized damage parameter. Under non-zero mean strain conditions, moreover, the proposed model provides more accurate predictions of Superalloy GH4133's fatigue behavior than that with zero mean strains.

  11. Fatigue life prediction of dentin-adhesive interface using micromechanical stress analysis

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Viraj; Misra, Anil; Marangos, Orestes; Park, Jonggu; Ye, Qiang; Kieweg, Sarah L; Spencer, Paulette

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The objective of this work was to develop a methodology for the prediction of fatigue life of the dentin-adhesive (d-a) interface. Methods At the micro-scale, the d-a interface is composed of dissimilar material components. Under global loading, these components experience different local stress amplitudes. The overall fatigue life of the d-a interface is, therefore, determined by the material component that has the shortest fatigue life under local stresses. Multiple 3d finite element (FE) models were developed to determine the stress distribution within the d-a interface by considering variations in micro-scale geometry, material composition and boundary conditions. The results from these models were analyzed to obtain the local stress concentrations within each d-a interface component. By combining the local stress concentrations and experimentally determined stress versus number of cycle to failure (S-N) curves for the different material components, the overall fatigue life of the d-a interface was predicted. Results The fatigue life was found to be a function of the applied loading amplitude, boundary conditions, microstructure and the mechanical properties of the material components of the d-a interface. In addition, it was found that the overall fatigue life of the d-a interface is not determined by the weakest material component. In many cases, the overall fatigue life was determined by the adhesive although exposed collagen was the weakest material component. Comparison of the predicted results with experimental data from the literature showed both qualitative and quantitative agreement. Significance The methodology developed for fatigue life prediction can provide insight into the mechanisms that control degradation of the bond formed at the d-a interface. PMID:21700326

  12. Life cycle cost based program decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dick, James S.

    1991-01-01

    The following subject areas are covered: background (space propulsion facility assessment team final report); changes (Advanced Launch System, National Aerospace Plane, and space exploration initiative); life cycle cost analysis rationale; and recommendation to panel.

  13. Life extending control: A concept paper

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lorenzo, Carl F.; Merrill, Walter C.

    1991-01-01

    The concept of Life Extending Control is defined. Life is defined in terms of mechanical fatigue life. A brief description is given of the current approach to life prediction using a local, cyclic, stress-strain approach for a critical system component. An alternative approach to life prediction based on a continuous functional relationship to component performance is proposed.Base on cyclic life prediction an approach to Life Extending Control, called the Life Management Approach is proposed. A second approach, also based on cyclic life prediction, called the Implicit Approach, is presented. Assuming the existence of the alternative functional life prediction approach, two additional concepts for Life Extending Control are presented.

  14. Ceramic material life prediction: A program to translate ANSYS results to CARES/LIFE reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonhermann, Pieter; Pintz, Adam

    1994-01-01

    This manual describes the use of the ANSCARES program to prepare a neutral file of FEM stress results taken from ANSYS Release 5.0, in the format needed by CARES/LIFE ceramics reliability program. It is intended for use by experienced users of ANSYS and CARES. Knowledge of compiling and linking FORTRAN programs is also required. Maximum use is made of existing routines (from other CARES interface programs and ANSYS routines) to extract the finite element results and prepare the neutral file for input to the reliability analysis. FORTRAN and machine language routines as described are used to read the ANSYS results file. Sub-element stresses are computed and written to a neutral file using FORTRAN subroutines which are nearly identical to those used in the NASCARES (MSC/NASTRAN to CARES) interface.

  15. FLAPS (Fatigue Life Analysis Programs): Computer Programs to Predict Cyclic Life Using the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning and Other Life Prediction Methods. Users' Manual and Example Problems, Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This manual presents computer programs FLAPS for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), and several other life prediction methods described in this manual. The user should be thoroughly familiar with the TS-SRP and these life prediction methods before attempting to use any of these programs. Improper understanding can lead to incorrect use of the method and erroneous life predictions. An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. The database is probably the largest source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data available in the public domain and can be used with other life-prediction methods as well. This users' manual, software, and database are all in the public domain and can be obtained by contacting the author. The Compact Disk (CD) accompanying this manual contains an executable file for the FLAPS program, two datasets required for the example problems in the manual, and the creep-fatigue data in a format compatible with these programs.

  16. Life prediction of turbine components: On-going studies at the NASA Lewis Research Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spera, D. A.; Grisaffe, S. J.

    1973-01-01

    An overview is presented of the many studies at NASA-Lewis that form the turbine component life prediction program. This program has three phases: (1) development of life prediction methods for major failure modes through materials studies, (2) evaluation and improvement of these methods through a variety of burner rig studies on simulated components in research engines and advanced rigs. These three phases form a cooperative, interdisciplinary program. A bibliography of Lewis publications on fatigue, oxidation and coatings, and turbine engine alloys is included.

  17. Early life stress predicts thalamic hyperconnectivity: A transdiagnostic study of global connectivity.

    PubMed

    Philip, Noah S; Tyrka, Audrey R; Albright, Sarah E; Sweet, Lawrence H; Almeida, Jorge; Price, Lawrence H; Carpenter, Linda L

    2016-08-01

    Early life stress (ELS) is an established risk factor for psychiatric illness and is associated with altered functional connectivity within- and between intrinsic neural networks. The widespread nature of these disruptions suggests that broad imaging measures of neural connectivity, such as global based connectivity (GBC), may be particularly appropriate for studies of this population. GBC is designed to identify brain regions having maximal functional connectedness with the rest of the brain, and alterations in GBC may reflect a restriction or broadening of network synchronization. We evaluated whether ELS severity predicted GBC in a sample (N = 46) with a spectrum of ELS exposure. Participants included healthy controls without ELS, those with at least moderate ELS but without psychiatric disorders, and a group of patients with ELS- related psychiatric disorders. The spatial distribution of GBC peaked in regions of the salience and default mode networks, and ELS severity predicted increased GBC of the left thalamus (corrected p < 0.005, r = 0.498). Thalamic connectivity was subsequently evaluated and revealed reduced connectivity with the salience network, particularly the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (corrected p < 0.005), only in the patient group. These findings support a model of disrupted thalamic connectivity in ELS and trauma-related negative affect states, and underscore the importance of a transdiagnostic, dimensional neuroimaging approach to understanding the sequelae of trauma exposure. PMID:27214526

  18. Analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in remaining useful life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankararaman, S.; Daigle, M.; Saxena, A.; Goebel, K.

    This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decision-making. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliabilitymethod (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliabilitymethod (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

  19. Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sankararaman, Shankar; Saxena, Abhinav; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

  20. Purpose in Life Predicts Treatment Outcome Among Adult Cocaine Abusers in Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Rosemarie A.; MacKinnon, Selene; Johnson, Jennifer; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

    2010-01-01

    A sense of purpose in life has been positively associated with mental health and well-being and has been negatively associated with alcohol use in correlational and longitudinal studies, but has not been studied as a predictor of cocaine treatment outcome. This study examined pre-treatment purpose in life as a predictor of response to a 30-day residential substance use treatment program among 154 participants with cocaine dependence. Purpose in life was unrelated to cocaine or alcohol use during the 6 months pretreatment. After controlling for age, baseline use, and depressive symptoms, purpose in life significantly (p < .01) predicted relapse to any use of cocaine and to alcohol, and the number of days cocaine or alcohol was used in the six months after treatment. Findings suggest that increasing purpose in life may be an important aspect of treatment among cocaine dependent patients. PMID:21129893

  1. Computational tools and resources for metabolism-related property predictions. 2. Application to prediction of half-life time in human liver microsomes

    PubMed Central

    Zakharov, Alexey V; Peach, Megan L; Sitzmann, Markus; Filippov, Igor V; McCartney, Heather J; Smith, Layton H; Pugliese, Angelo; Nicklaus, Marc C

    2014-01-01

    Background The most important factor affecting metabolic excretion of compounds from the body is their half-life time. This provides an indication of compound stability of, for example, drug molecules. We report on our efforts to develop QSAR models for metabolic stability of compounds, based on in vitro half-life assay data measured in human liver microsomes. Method A variety of QSAR models generated using different statistical methods and descriptor sets implemented in both open-source and commercial programs (KNIME, GUSAR and StarDrop) were analyzed. The models obtained were compared using four different external validation sets from public and commercial data sources, including two smaller sets of in vivo half-life data in humans. Conclusion In many cases, the accuracy of prediction achieved on one external test set did not correspond to the results achieved with another test set. The most predictive models were used for predicting the metabolic stability of compounds from the open NCI database, the results of which are publicly available on the NCI/CADD Group web server (http://cactus.nci.nih.gov). PMID:23088274

  2. Microporosity Prediction and Validation for Ni-based Superalloy Castings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, J.; Beckermann, C.; Carlson, K.; Hirvo, D.; Bell, K.; Moreland, T.; Gu, J.; Clews, J.; Scott, S.; Couturier, G.; Backman, D.

    2015-06-01

    Microporosityin high performance aerospace castings can reduce mechanical properties and consequently degrade both component life and durability. Therefore, casting engineers must be able to both predict and reduce casting microporosity. A dimensionless Niyama model has been developed [1] that predicts local microporosity by accounting for local thermal conditions during casting as well as the properties and solidification characteristics of the cast alloy. Unlike the well-known Niyama criterion, application of the dimensionless Niyama model avoids the need to find a threshold Niyama criterion below which shrinkage porosity forms - a criterion which can be determined only via extensive alloy dependent experimentation. In the present study, the dimensionless Niyama model is integrated with a commercial finite element casting simulation software, which can now more accurately predict the location-specific shrinkage porosity volume fraction during solidification of superalloy castings. These microporosity predictions are validated by comparing modelled results against radiographically and metallographically measured porosity for several Ni-based superalloy equiaxed castings that vary in alloy chemistry with a focus on plates of changing draft angle and thickness. The simulation results agree well with experimental measurements. The simulation results also show that the dimensionless Niyama model can not only identify the location but also the average volume fraction of microporosity distribution in these equiaxed investment cast Ni-based superalloy experiments of relatively simple geometry.

  3. Wavelet-based signal analysis for heart failure hospitalization prediction.

    PubMed

    Iakovidis, Dimitris K; Douska, Dimitra; Barba, Evaggelia; Koulaouzidis, George

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is commonly a chronic condition associated with frequent hospital admissions. Early knowledge about a possible deterioration of this condition would enable early treatment for the prevention of adverse events and related hospital admissions. In this paper we present a computational method for predictive information extraction from daily physiological signals, which can be obtained by a telemonitoring system with wearable sensors. It is based on wavelet analysis of temporal signal patterns. Experiments with data from patients enrolled in a telemonitoring protocol show that the proposed method is capable of predicting HF hospitalization events one day before they happen, even in the case of low compliance to the protocol. These results indicate a promising perspective towards a monitoring system that would provide improved life quality for HF patients. PMID:27225548

  4. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  5. Predictors and processes associated with home-based family therapists' professional quality of life.

    PubMed

    Macchi, C R; Johnson, Matthew D; Durtschi, Jared A

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether home-based family therapists' (HBFT) workload and clinical experience were associated with therapists' professional quality of life directly and indirectly through self-care activities and frequency of clinical supervision. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling with a sample of 225 home-based therapists. Results suggested that therapists' workload and HBFT experience significantly predicted therapists' professional quality of life. These associations between therapists' workload and HBFT experience were partially mediated through participation in self-care and frequency of clinical supervision. Implications for improving therapists' quality of life are discussed as a function of therapists' workload, clinical experience, self-care, and supervision. PMID:24749929

  6. Temperament and parenting during the first year of life predict future child conduct problems.

    PubMed

    Lahey, Benjamin B; Van Hulle, Carol A; Keenan, Kate; Rathouz, Paul J; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Waldman, Irwin D

    2008-11-01

    Predictive associations between parenting and temperament during the first year of life and child conduct problems were assessed longitudinally in 1,863 offspring of a representative sample of women. Maternal ratings of infant fussiness, activity level, predictability, and positive affect each independently predicted maternal ratings of conduct problems during ages 4-13 years. Furthermore, a significant interaction indicated that infants who were both low in fussiness and high in predictability were at very low risk for future conduct problems. Fussiness was a stronger predictor of conduct problems in boys whereas fearfulness was a stronger predictor in girls. Conduct problems also were robustly predicted by low levels of early mother-report cognitive stimulation when infant temperament was controlled. Interviewer-rated maternal responsiveness was a robust predictor of conduct problems, but only among infants low in fearfulness. Spanking during infancy predicted slightly more severe conduct problems, but the prediction was moderated by infant fussiness and positive affect. Thus, individual differences in risk for mother-rated conduct problems across childhood are already partly evident in maternal ratings of temperament during the first year of life and are predicted by early parenting and parenting-by-temperament interactions. PMID:18568397

  7. Weather, knowledge base and life-style

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohle, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Why to main-stream curiosity for earth-science topics, thus to appraise these topics as of public interest? Namely, to influence practices how humankind's activities intersect the geosphere. How to main-stream that curiosity for earth-science topics? Namely, by weaving diverse concerns into common threads drawing on a wide range of perspectives: be it beauty or particularity of ordinary or special phenomena, evaluating hazards for or from mundane environments, or connecting the scholarly investigation with concerns of citizens at large; applying for threading traditional or modern media, arts or story-telling. Three examples: First "weather"; weather is a topic of primordial interest for most people: weather impacts on humans lives, be it for settlement, for food, for mobility, for hunting, for fishing, or for battle. It is the single earth-science topic that went "prime-time" since in the early 1950-ties the broadcasting of weather forecasts started and meteorologists present their work to the public, daily. Second "knowledge base"; earth-sciences are a relevant for modern societies' economy and value setting: earth-sciences provide insights into the evolution of live-bearing planets, the functioning of Earth's systems and the impact of humankind's activities on biogeochemical systems on Earth. These insights bear on production of goods, living conditions and individual well-being. Third "life-style"; citizen's urban culture prejudice their experiential connections: earth-sciences related phenomena are witnessed rarely, even most weather phenomena. In the past, traditional rural communities mediated their rich experiences through earth-centric story-telling. In course of the global urbanisation process this culture has given place to society-centric story-telling. Only recently anthropogenic global change triggered discussions on geoengineering, hazard mitigation, demographics, which interwoven with arts, linguistics and cultural histories offer a rich narrative

  8. BROAD-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pollution prevention through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a departure from evaluating waste management options that look mainly at single issues such as recyclability or reduced toxicity. An LCA is a snapshot in time of inputs and outputs. It can be used as an objective technic...

  9. Finite Element Creep Damage Analyses and Life Prediction of P91 Pipe Containing Local Wall Thinning Defect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Jilin; Zhou, Changyu

    2016-03-01

    Creep continuum damage finite element (FE) analyses were performed for P91 steel pipe containing local wall thinning (LWT) defect subjected to monotonic internal pressure, monotonic bending moment and combined internal pressure and bending moment by orthogonal experimental design method. The creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect under different load conditions were obtained. Then, the creep damage life formulas were regressed based on the creep damage life results from FE method. At the same time a skeletal point rupture stress was found and used for life prediction which was compared with creep damage lives obtained by continuum damage analyses. From the results, the failure lives of pipe containing LWT defect can be obtained accurately by using skeletal point rupture stress method. Finally, the influence of LWT defect geometry was analysed, which indicated that relative defect depth was the most significant factor for creep damage lives of pipe containing LWT defect.

  10. Methodology for designing accelerated aging tests for predicting life of photovoltaic arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaines, G. B.; Thomas, R. E.; Derringer, G. C.; Kistler, C. W.; Bigg, D. M.; Carmichael, D. C.

    1977-01-01

    A methodology for designing aging tests in which life prediction was paramount was developed. The methodology builds upon experience with regard to aging behavior in those material classes which are expected to be utilized as encapsulant elements, viz., glasses and polymers, and upon experience with the design of aging tests. The experiences were reviewed, and results are discussed in detail.

  11. The Incremental Validity of Religious Constructs in Predicting Quality of Life, Racism, and Sexual Attitudes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Csarny, Richard J.

    1997-01-01

    This study examined the degree to which certain religious/spiritual constructs simply reflect personality variables and to what extent they describe unique components of individual differences. It assessed the incremental validity of several recent or widely used religious measures over personality dimensions in predicting quality of life, racism,…

  12. Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.

    2003-01-01

    This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

  13. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  14. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  15. Predictability of sacral base levelness based on iliac crest measurements.

    PubMed

    Dott, G A; Hart, C L; McKay, C

    1994-05-01

    A level sacral base plane is necessary to allow normalization of complex lumbosacral mechanics. Palpatory examinations are often used to evaluate for leg length discrepancy and pelvic obliquity despite improved accuracy and consistency of radiographic techniques. Treatment based on palpatory examinations suppose a direct and consistent relationship between the pelvic bones (innominates) and the sacral base. To evaluate the relationship between iliac crest levelness and sacral base levelness, a radiographic postural survey in the upright, weight-bearing position was performed on 358 men and women thought to have pelvic obliquity. Of these subjects, 293 demonstrated unlevel iliac crest heights or sacral base > or = 3/16 inch (4.76 mm), with iliac crest heights accurately predicting sacral base position 62% of the time. At > or = 3/8 inch (9.53 mm), 68% of the cases were accurately predicted. When the criterion for unlevelness was increased to > or = 1/2 inch (12.70 mm), the predictive accuracy improved to 83%. Radiographic findings in this study demonstrate a significant difference between iliac crest heights and sacral base position. In cases of mild to moderate short leg syndromes, the iliac crest height is an unreliable predictor of the direction or degree of sacral base levelness. PMID:8056627

  16. Predicting First Onset of Depression in Young Girls: Interaction of Diurnal Cortisol and Negative Life Events

    PubMed Central

    LeMoult, Joelle; Ordaz, Sarah J.; Kircanski, Katharina; Singh, Manpreet K.; Gotlib, Ian H.

    2015-01-01

    Interactions between biological vulnerability and environmental adversity are central to the pathophysiology of depression. Given evidence that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis influences biological responses to environmental events, in the current longitudinal study we examined HPA-axis functioning, negative life events, and their interaction as predictors of the first onset of depression. At baseline, girls ages 9 to 14 years provided saliva samples to assess levels of diurnal cortisol production, quantified by total cortisol production (area under the curve with respect to ground; AUCg) and the cortisol awakening response (CAR). We then followed these participants until they reached age 18 in order to assess their subsequent experience of negative life events and the onset of a depressive episode. We found that the influence of negative life events on the subsequent onset of depression depended on HPA-axis functioning at baseline. Specifically, negative life events predicted the onset of depression in girls with higher levels AUCg, but not in girls with lower levels of AUCg. In contrast, CAR did not predict the onset of depression either alone or in interaction with negative life events. These findings suggest that elevated total cortisol production in daily life potentiates susceptibility to environmental adversity and signals the need for early intervention. PMID:26595472

  17. Predicting first onset of depression in young girls: Interaction of diurnal cortisol and negative life events.

    PubMed

    LeMoult, Joelle; Ordaz, Sarah J; Kircanski, Katharina; Singh, Manpreet K; Gotlib, Ian H

    2015-11-01

    Interactions between biological vulnerability and environmental adversity are central to the pathophysiology of depression. Given evidence that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis influences biological responses to environmental events, in the current longitudinal study the authors examined HPA-axis functioning, negative life events, and their interaction as predictors of the first onset of depression. At baseline, girls ages 9 to 14 years provided saliva samples to assess levels of diurnal cortisol production, quantified by total cortisol production (area under the curve with respect to ground; AUCg) and the cortisol awakening response (CAR). The authors then followed these participants until they reached age 18 in order to assess their subsequent experience of negative life events and the onset of a depressive episode. They found that the influence of negative life events on the subsequent onset of depression depended on HPA-axis functioning at baseline. Specifically, negative life events predicted the onset of depression in girls with higher levels of AUCg, but not in girls with lower levels of AUCg. In contrast, CAR did not predict the onset of depression either alone or in interaction with negative life events. These findings suggest that elevated total cortisol production in daily life potentiates susceptibility to environmental adversity and signals the need for early intervention. PMID:26595472

  18. Palliative radiotherapy during the last month of life: Predictability for referring physicians and radiation oncologists

    PubMed Central

    NIEDER, CARSTEN; ANGELO, KENT; DALHAUG, ASTRID; PAWINSKI, ADAM; HAUKLAND, ELLINOR; NORUM, JAN

    2015-01-01

    Oncologists commonly overestimate the survival time of patients receiving palliative therapy, which may result in the administration of treatments that are too aggressive for patients near the end of their lives. Previous studies have discussed the negative implications of palliative radiotherapy if administered during the last month of life. Models predicting a limited survival time may improve the ability of the oncologists to tailor the treatment according to the needs of each individual patient. In the present study, prognostic factors for survival time, and the use of palliative radiotherapy during the last month of life, were analyzed in 873 patients. Models predicting the likelihood of administering such therapy were examined, and the risk of receiving radiotherapy during the last month of life was observed to be lower in patients with non-metastatic cancer than in those with metastatic cancer (7 vs. 13%, respectively; P=0.12). On multivariate analysis, 11 factors that significantly influenced the survival time were identified. These findings emphasize the complexity of potential prediction models. The most important risk factor regarding the prediction of extremely short survival times was observed to be an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 4, followed by an ECOG PS of 3 (median survival times, 14 and 64 days, respectively). A limited number of patients who received palliative radiotherapy during their last month of life died unexpectedly. Disease-specific prediction models were developed; however, the small number of events available for analysis limited their immediate clinical impact. Furthermore, these prediction models identified a minority of patients who received radiotherapy during the last month of life. In conclusion, the majority of the palliative radiotherapy courses administered to patients with advanced cancer during their last month of life may be preventable if accurate decision models for the clinic are

  19. Audibility-based annoyance prediction modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fidell, Sanford; Finegold, Lawrence S.

    1992-04-01

    The effects of rapid onset times and high absolute sound pressures near military training routes (MTR's) including possible startle effects and increased annoyance due to the unpredictable nature of these flights, have been of longstanding concern. A more recent concern is the possibility of increased annoyance due to low ambient noise levels near military flight training operations and differences in expectations about noise exposure in high and low population density areas. This paper describes progress in developing audibility-based methods for predicting the annoyance of noise produced at some distance from aircraft flight tracks. Audibility-based models which take into account near-ground acoustic propagation and ambient noise levels may be useful in assessing environmental impacts of MTR's and Military Operating Areas (MOA's) under some conditions. A prototype Single Event Annoyance Prediction Model (SEAPM) has been developed under USAF sponsorship as an initial effort to address these issues, and work has progressed on a geographic information system (GIS) to produce cartographically referenced representations of aircraft audibility.

  20. Prediction of reliability on thermoelectric module through accelerated life test and Physics-of-failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyoung-Seuk; Seo, Won-Seon; Choi, Duck-Kyun

    2011-09-01

    Thermoelectric cooling module (TEM) which is electric device has a mechanical stress because of temperature gradient in itself. It means that structure of TEM is vulnerable in an aspect of reliability but research on reliability of TEM was not performed a lot. Recently, the more the utilization of thermoelectric cooling devices grows, the more the needs for life prediction and improvement are increasing. In this paper, we investigated life distribution, shape parameter of the TEM through accelerated life test (ALT). And we discussed about how to enhance life of TEM through the Physics-of-failure. Experimental results of ALT showed that the thermoelectric cooling module follows the Weibull distribution, shape parameter of which is 3.6. The acceleration model is coffin Coffin-Manson and material constant is 1.8.

  1. Does life history predict risk-taking behavior of wintering dabbling ducks?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ackerman, J.T.; Eadie, J.M.; Moore, T.G.

    2006-01-01

    Life-history theory predicts that longer-lived, less fecund species should take fewer risks when exposed to predation than shorter-lived, more fecund species. We tested this prediction for seven species of dabbling ducks (Anas) by measuring the approach behavior (behavior of ducks when approaching potential landing sites) of 1099 duck flocks during 37 hunting trials and 491 flocks during 13 trials conducted immediately after the 1999-2000 waterfowl hunting season in California, USA. We also experimentally manipulated the attractiveness of the study site by using two decoy treatments: (1) traditional, stationary decoys only, and (2) traditional decoys in conjunction with a mechanical spinning-wing decoy. Approach behavior of ducks was strongly correlated with their life history. Minimum approach distance was negatively correlated with reproductive output during each decoy treatment and trial type. Similarly, the proportion of flocks taking risk (approaching landing sites to within 45 m) was positively correlated with reproductive output. We found similar patterns of approach behavior in relation to other life-history parameters (i.e., adult female body mass and annual adult female survival rate). Thus, species characterized by a slower life-history strategy (e.g., Northern Pintail [A. acuta]) were more risk-averse than species with a faster life-history strategy (e.g., Cinnamon Teal [A. cyanoptera]). Furthermore, although we were able to reduce risk-averseness using the spinning-wing decoy, we were unable to override the influence of life history on risk-taking behavior. Alternative explanations did not account for the observed correlation between approach behavior and life-history parameters. These results suggest that life history influences the risk-taking behavior of dabbling ducks and provide an explanation for the differential vulnerability of waterfowl to harvest. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

  2. Base drag prediction on missile configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, F. G.; Hymer, T.; Wilcox, F.

    1993-01-01

    New wind tunnel data have been taken, and a new empirical model has been developed for predicting base drag on missile configurations. The new wind tunnel data were taken at NASA-Langley in the Unitary Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers from 2.0 to 4.5, angles of attack to 16 deg, fin control deflections up to 20 deg, fin thickness/chord of 0.05 to 0.15, and fin locations from 'flush with the base' to two chord-lengths upstream of the base. The empirical model uses these data along with previous wind tunnel data, estimating base drag as a function of all these variables as well as boat-tail and power-on/power-off effects. The new model yields improved accuracy, compared to wind tunnel data. The new model also is more robust due to inclusion of additional variables. On the other hand, additional wind tunnel data are needed to validate or modify the current empirical model in areas where data are not available.

  3. Land colonisation by fish is associated with predictable changes in life history.

    PubMed

    Platt, Edward R M; Fowler, Ashley M; Ord, Terry J

    2016-07-01

    The colonisation of new environments is a central evolutionary process, yet why species make such transitions often remains unknown because of the difficulty in empirically investigating potential mechanisms. The most likely explanation for transitions to new environments is that doing so conveys survival benefits, either in the form of an ecological release or new ecological opportunity. Life history theory makes explicit predictions about how traits linked to survival and reproduction should change with shifts in age-specific mortality. We used these predictions to examine whether a current colonisation of land by fishes might convey survival benefits. We found that blenny species with more terrestrial lifestyles exhibited faster reproductive development and slower growth rates than species with more marine lifestyles; a life history trade off that is consistent with the hypothesis that mortality has become reduced in younger life stages on land. A plausible explanation for such a shift is that an ecological release or opportunity on land has conveyed survival benefits relative to the ancestral marine environment. More generally, our study illustrates how life history theory can be leveraged in novel ways to formulate testable predictions on why organisms might make transitions into novel environments. PMID:26932469

  4. Predictive Modeling for End-of-Life Pain Outcome using Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Lodhi, Muhammad K.; Stifter, Janet; Yao, Yingwei; Ansari, Rashid; Kee-nan, Gail M.; Wilkie, Diana J.; Khokhar, Ashfaq A.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health record (EHR) systems are being widely used in the healthcare industry nowadays, mostly for monitoring the progress of the patients. EHR data analysis has become a big data problem as data is growing rapidly. Using a nursing EHR system, we built predictive models for determining what factors influence pain in end-of-life (EOL) patients. Utilizing different modeling techniques, we developed coarse-grained and fine-grained models to predict patient pain outcomes. The coarse-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each hospitalization, whereas fine-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each shift, thus providing a trajectory of predicted outcomes over the entire hospitalization. These models can help in determining effective treatments for individuals and groups of patients and support standardization of care where appropriate. Using these models may also lower the cost and increase the quality of end-of-life care. Results from these techniques show significantly accurate predictions. PMID:27500287

  5. A Modified Nonlinear Damage Accumulation Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Considering Load Interaction Effects

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Hong-Zhong; Yuan, Rong

    2014-01-01

    Many structures are subjected to variable amplitude loading in engineering practice. The foundation of fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude loading is how to deal with the fatigue damage accumulation. A nonlinear fatigue damage accumulation model to consider the effects of load sequences was proposed in earlier literature, but the model cannot consider the load interaction effects, and sometimes it makes a major error. A modified nonlinear damage accumulation model is proposed in this paper to account for the load interaction effects. Experimental data of two metallic materials are used to validate the proposed model. The agreement between the model prediction and experimental data is observed, and the predictions by proposed model are more possibly in accordance with experimental data than that by primary model and Miner's rule. Comparison between the predicted cumulative damage by the proposed model and an existing model shows that the proposed model predictions can meet the accuracy requirement of the engineering project and it can be used to predict the fatigue life of welded aluminum alloy joint of Electric Multiple Units (EMU); meanwhile, the accuracy of approximation can be obtained from the proposed model though more simple computing process and less material parameters calling for extensive testing than the existing model. PMID:24574866

  6. Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Palfi, Tamas; Reh, Stefan

    2005-01-01

    Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

  7. Prediction of low-cycle fatigue-life by acoustic emission—2: 7075-T6 aluminum alloy

    SciTech Connect

    Baram, J.; Rosen, M.

    1981-01-01

    Low-cycle fatigue tests were conducted by tension-compression until rupture, on a 2024-T3 aluminum alloy sheet. Initial crack sizes and orientations in the fatigue specimens were found to be randomly distributed. Acoustic emission was continuously monitored during the tests. Every few hundred cycles, the acoustic signal having the highest peak-amplitude, was recorded as an extremal event for the elapsed period. This high peak-amplitude is related to a fast crack propagation rate through a phenomenological relationship. The extremal peakamplitudes are shown by an ordered statistics treatment, to be extremally distributed. The statistical treatment enables the prediction of the number of cycles left until failure. Predictions performed a-posteriori based on results gained early in each fatigue test are in good agreement with actual fatigue lives. The amplitude distribution analysis of the acoustic signals emitted during cyclic stress appears to be a promising nondestructive method of predicting fatigue life.

  8. Prediction of Contact Fatigue Life of Alloy Cast Steel Rolls Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Huijin; Wu, Sujun; Peng, Yuncheng

    2013-12-01

    In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) was employed to predict the contact fatigue life of alloy cast steel rolls (ACSRs) as a function of alloy composition, heat treatment parameters, and contact stress by utilizing the back-propagation algorithm. The ANN was trained and tested using experimental data and a very good performance of the neural network was achieved. The well-trained neural network was then adopted to predict the contact fatigue life of chromium alloyed cast steel rolls with different alloy compositions and heat treatment processes. The prediction results showed that the maximum value of contact fatigue life was obtained with quenching at 960 °C, tempering at 520 °C, and under the contact stress of 2355 MPa. The optimal alloy composition was C-0.54, Si-0.66, Mn-0.67, Cr-4.74, Mo-0.46, V-0.13, Ni-0.34, and Fe-balance (wt.%). Some explanations of the predicted results from the metallurgical viewpoints are given. A convenient and powerful method of optimizing alloy composition and heat treatment parameters of ACSRs has been developed.

  9. Prediction in Annotation Based Guideline Encoding

    PubMed Central

    Hagerty, C. Greg; Pickens, David S.; Chang, Jaime; Kulikowski, Casimir A.; Sonnenberg, Frank A.

    2006-01-01

    The encoding of clinical practice guidelines into machine operable representations poses numerous challenges and will require considerable human intervention for the foreseeable future. To assist and potentially speed up this process, we have developed an incremental approach to guideline encoding which begins with the annotation of the original guideline text using markup techniques. A modular and flexible sequence of subtasks results in increasingly inter-operable representations while maintaining the connections to all prior source representations and supporting knowledge. To reduce the encoding bottleneck we also employ a number of machine-assisted learning and prediction techniques within a knowledge-based software environment. Promising results with a straightforward incremental learning algorithm illustrate the feasibility of such an approach. PMID:17238354

  10. Slow Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Subjected to Variable Load History

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama

    2001-01-01

    Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code has the capability to compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth (SCG) type failure conditions CARES/Life can handle the cases of sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, while for cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant amplitude loads can be accounted for. In real applications applied loads are rarely that simple, but rather vary with time in more complex ways such as, for example, engine start up, shut down, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology capable of predicting the time-dependent reliability of components subjected to transient thermomechanical loads that takes into account the change in material response with time. In this paper, the dominant delayed failure mechanism is assumed to be SCG. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code, which has also been modified to have the ability of interfacing with commercially available FEA codes executed for transient load histories. An example involving a ceramic exhaust valve subjected to combustion cycle loads is presented to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Life program.

  11. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  12. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    PubMed

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  13. Interaction of child disability and stressful life events in predicting maternal psychological health. Results of an area-based study of very preterm infants at two years corrected age.

    PubMed

    Cacciani, Laura; Di Lallo, Domenico; Piga, Simone; Corchia, Carlo; Carnielli, Virgilio; Chiandotto, Valeria; Fertz, Mariacristina; Miniaci, Silvana; Rusconi, Franca; Caravale, Barbara; Cuttini, Marina

    2013-10-01

    This study aimed at exploring the relationship between severe neuromotor and/or sensory disability in very preterm infants assessed at 2 years corrected age and their mothers' psychological health. Data on 581 Italian singletons born at 22-31 weeks of gestation in five Italian regions and their mothers were analyzed. Maternal psychological distress was measured through the General Health Questionnaire short version (GHQ-12). The prevalence of any maternal distress (GHQ scores ≥ 2) and of clinical distress (scores ≥ 5) were 31.3% and 8.1% respectively. At multivariable analysis, we found a statistically significant association between child's disability and mothers' GHQ scoring ≥ 5 (OR 3.45, 95% CI 1.07-11.15). Also lower maternal education appeared to increase the likelihood of psychological distress (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.14-1.66). The impact of child disability was weaker in women who had experienced additional stressful life events since delivery, pointing to the existence of a "ceiling" effect. Maternal psychological assessment and support should be included in follow-up programs targeting very preterm infants. PMID:23920026

  14. Classroom Formation & Spiritual Awareness Pedagogy Based on Bonhoeffer's "Life Together"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holm, Neil

    2008-01-01

    Bonhoeffer's "Life Together" describes disciplines for Christian formation. Based on communal life, these disciplines assist Christians to take seriously Christ's call to discipleship. This article describes the disciplines of dispersion and community, reading Scripture, prayer, solitude, discernment, service and confession. Disconnected from…

  15. Theory-Based Approaches to the Concept of Life

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El-Hani, Charbel Nino

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, I argue that characterisations of life through lists of properties have several shortcomings and should be replaced by theory-based accounts that explain the coexistence of a set of properties in living beings. The concept of life should acquire its meaning from its relationships with other concepts inside a theory. I illustrate…

  16. Enhancing College Students' Life Skills through Project Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wurdinger, Scott; Qureshi, Mariam

    2015-01-01

    This study examined whether life skills could be developed in a Project Based Learning (PBL) course. The participants were students enrolled in a graduate level PBL course. The same 35-question survey was given to students at the beginning and end of the course, and students were asked to rank their life skills using a Likert scale. Additionally,…

  17. Cultivating Life Skills at a Project-Based Charter School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wurdinger, Scott; Enloe, Walter

    2011-01-01

    Surveys that focused on academic and life skill development were collected from alumni who attended Avalon Charter School in St Paul, Minnesota. Avalon is a small public charter school that uses project-based learning as their primary teaching method. Forty-two alumni responded to the online survey. Students ranked life skills such as creativity,…

  18. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    PubMed

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being. PMID:20565185

  19. Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

    PubMed Central

    Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

  20. Prediction of Quality of Life for Children and Adolescents with Cardiac Disease by Clinicians

    PubMed Central

    Costello, John M.; Mussatto, Kathleen; Cassedy, Amy; Wray, Jo; Mahony, Lynn; Teele, Sarah A.; Brown, Kate L.; Franklin, Rodney C.; Wernovsky, Gil; Marino, Bradley S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether clinicians could reliably predict health-related quality of life (HRQOL) for children with cardiac disease, the level of agreement in predicted HRQOL scores between clinician sub-types, and agreement between clinician-predicted HRQOL scores and patient and parent-proxy reported HRQOL scores. Study design In this multi-center, cross-sectional study, a random sample of clinical summaries of children with cardiac disease and related patient and parent-proxy reported HRQOL scores were extracted from the Pediatric Cardiac Quality of Life Inventory data registry. We asked clinicians to review each clinical summary and predict HRQOL. Results Experienced pediatric cardiac clinicians (n=140), including intensive care physicians, outpatient cardiologists, and intensive care, outpatient and advanced practice nurses, each predicted HRQOL for the same 21 pediatric cardiac patients. Reliability within clinician subspecialty groups for predicting HRQOL was poor (intraclass correlation coefficients, 0.34-0.38). Agreement between clinician groups was low (Pearson's correlation coefficients, 0.10-0.29). When comparing the average clinician predicted HRQOL scores to those reported by patients and parent-proxies by Bland Altman plots, little systematic bias was present, but substantial variability existed. Proportional bias was found, in that clinicians tended to overestimate HRQOL for those patients and parent-proxies who reported lower HRQOL, and underestimate HRQOL for those reporting higher HRQOL. Conclusions Clinicians perform poorly when asked to predict HRQOL for children with cardiac disease. Clinicians should be cognizant of these data when providing counseling. Incorporating reported HRQOL into clinical assessment may help guide individualized treatment decision-making. PMID:25722271

  1. Prediction of Expected Years of Life Using Whole-Genome Markers

    PubMed Central

    de los Campos, Gustavo; Klimentidis, Yann C.; Vazquez, Ana I.; Allison, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Genetic factors are believed to account for 25% of the interindividual differences in Years of Life (YL) among humans. However, the genetic loci that have thus far been found to be associated with YL explain a very small proportion of the expected genetic variation in this trait, perhaps reflecting the complexity of the trait and the limitations of traditional association studies when applied to traits affected by a large number of small-effect genes. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study and statistical methods borrowed largely from the field of animal genetics (whole-genome prediction, WGP), we developed a WGP model for the study of YL and evaluated the extent to which thousands of genetic variants across the genome examined simultaneously can be used to predict interindividual differences in YL. We find that a sizable proportion of differences in YL—which were unexplained by age at entry, sex, smoking and BMI—can be accounted for and predicted using WGP methods. The contribution of genomic information to prediction accuracy was even higher than that of smoking and body mass index (BMI) combined; two predictors that are considered among the most important life-shortening factors. We evaluated the impacts of familial relationships and population structure (as described by the first two marker-derived principal components) and concluded that in our dataset population structure explained partially, but not fully the gains in prediction accuracy obtained with WGP. Further inspection of prediction accuracies by age at death indicated that most of the gains in predictive ability achieved with WGP were due to the increased accuracy of prediction of early mortality, perhaps reflecting the ability of WGP to capture differences in genetic risk to deadly diseases such as cancer, which are most often responsible for early mortality in our sample. PMID:22848416

  2. A Novel and Simple Methodology for Predicting Creep Life of Welded Pressure Component Employing Strain Energy Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, T.; Kanapathipillai, S.; Chowdhury, M.

    2013-10-01

    Almost all of the pressure components produced at present are produced by welding and a good majority of them are used for high temperature application where creep damage can occur and requires the attention of the pressure equipment designers. An accurate creep life prediction model is required to predict the life of such pressure components. All of the creep life prediction models available today are either inaccurate or too cumbersome to apply. There is a need for an accurate creep life prediction model that would overcome the shortcomings of the existing models. Research team at UNSW have developed a creep life prediction model [Mahmood et al., in Front Mech Eng, 8(2):181-186, 2013; Mahmood et al., in Eng Integr J, 34:6-13, 2013; Mahmood et al. in Intl J Reliab Saf Eng Syst Struct D, 1(1):43-51, 2011] that accurately predicted the creep life of seamless pipes when applied to them. This paper is an extension of previous work and investigates the accuracy of the model when applied to a thick-walled pipe having a circumferential weld to predict the creep life of a welded pressure component. The paper shows that the proposed model can predict the creep life of the vessel with an error of less than 1 %.

  3. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  4. TOPPER: Topology Prediction of Transmembrane Protein Based on Evidential Reasoning

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Xinyang; Liu, Qi; Hu, Yong; Deng, Yong

    2013-01-01

    The topology prediction of transmembrane protein is a hot research field in bioinformatics and molecular biology. It is a typical pattern recognition problem. Various prediction algorithms are developed to predict the transmembrane protein topology since the experimental techniques have been restricted by many stringent conditions. Usually, these individual prediction algorithms depend on various principles such as the hydrophobicity or charges of residues. In this paper, an evidential topology prediction method for transmembrane protein is proposed based on evidential reasoning, which is called TOPPER (topology prediction of transmembrane protein based on evidential reasoning). In the proposed method, the prediction results of multiple individual prediction algorithms can be transformed into BPAs (basic probability assignments) according to the confusion matrix. Then, the final prediction result can be obtained by the combination of each individual prediction base on Dempster's rule of combination. The experimental results show that the proposed method is superior to the individual prediction algorithms, which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:23401665

  5. Temperature-based bioclimatic parameters can predict nematode metabolic footprints.

    PubMed

    Bhusal, Daya Ram; Tsiafouli, Maria A; Sgardelis, Stefanos P

    2015-09-01

    Nematode metabolic footprints (MFs) refer to the lifetime amount of metabolized carbon per individual, indicating a connection to soil food web functions and eventually to processes supporting ecosystem services. Estimating and managing these at a convenient scale requires information upscaling from the soil sample to the landscape level. We explore the feasibility of predicting nematode MFs from temperature-based bioclimatic parameters across a landscape. We assume that temperature effects are reflected in MFs, since temperature variations determine life processes ranging from enzyme activities to community structure. We use microclimate data recorded for 1 year from sites differing by orientation, altitude and vegetation cover. At the same sites we estimate MFs for each nematode trophic group. Our models show that bioclimatic parameters, specifically those accounting for temporal variations in temperature and extremities, predict most of the variation in nematode MFs. Higher fungivorous and lower bacterivorous nematode MFs are predicted for sites with high seasonality and low isothermality (sites of low vegetation, mostly at low altitudes), indicating differences in the relative contribution of the corresponding food web channels to the metabolism of carbon across the landscape. Higher plant-parasitic MFs were predicted for sites with high seasonality. The fitted models provide realistic predictions of unknown cases within the range of the predictor's values, allowing for the interpolation of MFs within the sampled region. We conclude that upscaling of the bioindication potential of nematode communities is feasible and can provide new perspectives not only in the field of soil ecology but other research areas as well. PMID:25899615

  6. Life prediction of materials exposed to monotonic and cyclic loading: Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, J. L., Jr.; Moya, N.; Stuhrke, W. F.

    1975-01-01

    This bibliography is comprised of approximately 1200 reference citations related to the mechanics of failure in aerospace structures. Most of the references are for information on life prediction for materials exposed to monotonic and cyclic loading in elevated temperature environments such as that in the hot end of a gas turbine engine. Additional citations listed are for documents on the thermal and mechanical effects on solar cells in the cryogenic vacuum environment; radiation effects on high temperature mechanical properties; and high cycle fatigue technology as applicable to gas turbine engine bearings. The bibliography represents a search of the literature published in the period April 1962 through April 1974 and is largely limited to documents published in the United States. It is a companion volume to NASA CR-134750, Life Prediction of Materials Exposed to Monotonic and cyclic Loading - A Technology Survey.

  7. Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

  8. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noel, G. T.; Sliemers, F. A.; Deringer, G. C.; Wood, V. E.; Wilkes, K. E.; Gaines, G. B.; Carmichael, D. C.

    1978-01-01

    Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories - chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and other physicals. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life prediction tests of arrays were selected.

  9. Life prediction of materials exposed to monotonic and cyclic loading: A new technology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stuhrke, W. F.; Carpenter, J. L., Jr.

    1975-01-01

    Reviewed and evaluated technical abstracts for about 100 significant documents are reported relating primarily to life prediction for structural materials exposed to monotonic and cyclic loading, particularly in elevated temperature environments. The abstracts in the report are mostly for publications in the period April 1962 through April 1974. The purpose of this report is to provide, in quick reference form, a dependable source for current information

  10. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men. PMID:26098167

  11. Failure Mode Classification for Life Prediction Modeling of Solid-State Lighting

    SciTech Connect

    Sakalaukus, Peter Joseph

    2015-08-01

    light power” of the SSL luminaire. The use of the Arrhenius equation necessitates two different temperature conditions, 25°C and 45°C are suggested by TM28, to determine the SSL lamp specific activation energy. One principal issue with TM28 is the lack of additional stresses or parameters needed to characterize non-temperature dependent failure mechanisms. Another principal issue with TM28 is the assumption that lumen maintenance or lumen depreciation gives an adequate comparison between SSL luminaires. Additionally, TM28 has no process for the determination of acceleration factors or lifetime estimations. Currently, a literature gap exists for established accelerated test methods for SSL devices to assess quality, reliability and durability before being introduced into the marketplace. Furthermore, there is a need for Physics-of-Failure based approaches to understand the processes and mechanisms that induce failure for the assessment of SSL reliability in order to develop generalized acceleration factors that better represent SSL product lifetime. This and the deficiencies in TM28 validate the need behind the development of acceleration techniques to quantify SSL reliability under a variety of environmental conditions. The ability to assess damage accrual and investigate reliability of SSL components and systems is essential to understanding the life time of the SSL device itself. The methodologies developed in this work increases the understanding of SSL devices iv through the investigation of component and device reliability under a variety of accelerated test conditions. The approaches for suitable lifetime predictions through the development of novel generalized acceleration factors, as well as a prognostics and health management framework, will greatly reduce the time and effort needed to produce SSL acceleration factors for the development of lifetime predictions.

  12. In silico network topology-based prediction of gene essentiality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Silva, João Paulo Müller; Acencio, Marcio Luis; Mombach, José Carlos Merino; Vieira, Renata; da Silva, José Camargo; Lemke, Ney; Sinigaglia, Marialva

    2008-02-01

    The identification of genes essential for survival is important for the understanding of the minimal requirements for cellular life and for drug design. As experimental studies with the purpose of building a catalog of essential genes for a given organism are time-consuming and laborious, a computational approach which could predict gene essentiality with high accuracy would be of great value. We present here a novel computational approach, called NTPGE (Network Topology-based Prediction of Gene Essentiality), that relies on the network topology features of a gene to estimate its essentiality. The first step of NTPGE is to construct the integrated molecular network for a given organism comprising protein physical, metabolic and transcriptional regulation interactions. The second step consists in training a decision-tree-based machine-learning algorithm on known essential and non-essential genes of the organism of interest, considering as learning attributes the network topology information for each of these genes. Finally, the decision-tree classifier generated is applied to the set of genes of this organism to estimate essentiality for each gene. We applied the NTPGE approach for discovering the essential genes in Escherichia coli and then assessed its performance.

  13. Can infant lung function predict respiratory morbidity during the first year of life in preterm infants?

    PubMed

    Proietti, Elena; Riedel, Thomas; Fuchs, Oliver; Pramana, Isabelle; Singer, Florian; Schmidt, Anne; Kuehni, Claudia; Latzin, Philipp; Frey, Urs

    2014-06-01

    Compared with term-born infants, preterm infants have increased respiratory morbidity in the first year of life. We investigated whether lung function tests performed near term predict subsequent respiratory morbidity during the first year of life and compared this to standard clinical parameters in preterms. The prospective birth cohort included randomly selected preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Lung function (tidal breathing and multiple-breath washout) was measured at 44 weeks post-menstrual age during natural sleep. We assessed respiratory morbidity (wheeze, hospitalisation, inhalation and home oxygen therapy) after 1 year using a standardised questionnaire. We first assessed the association between lung function and subsequent respiratory morbidity. Secondly, we compared the predictive power of standard clinical predictors with and without lung function data. In 166 preterm infants, tidal volume, time to peak tidal expiratory flow/expiratory time ratio and respiratory rate were significantly associated with subsequent wheeze. In comparison with standard clinical predictors, lung function did not improve the prediction of later respiratory morbidity in an individual child. Although associated with later wheeze, noninvasive infant lung function shows large physiological variability and does not add to clinically relevant risk prediction for subsequent respiratory morbidity in an individual preterm. PMID:24696112

  14. A comparative study of kinetic and connectionist modeling for shelf-life prediction of Basundi mix.

    PubMed

    Ruhil, A P; Singh, R R B; Jain, D K; Patel, A A; Patil, G R

    2011-04-01

    A ready-to-reconstitute formulation of Basundi, a popular Indian dairy dessert was subjected to storage at various temperatures (10, 25 and 40 °C) and deteriorative changes in the Basundi mix were monitored using quality indices like pH, hydroxyl methyl furfural (HMF), bulk density (BD) and insolubility index (II). The multiple regression equations and the Arrhenius functions that describe the parameters' dependence on temperature for the four physico-chemical parameters were integrated to develop mathematical models for predicting sensory quality of Basundi mix. Connectionist model using multilayer feed forward neural network with back propagation algorithm was also developed for predicting the storage life of the product employing artificial neural network (ANN) tool box of MATLAB software. The quality indices served as the input parameters whereas the output parameters were the sensorily evaluated flavour and total sensory score. A total of 140 observations were used and the prediction performance was judged on the basis of per cent root mean square error. The results obtained from the two approaches were compared. Relatively lower magnitudes of percent root mean square error for both the sensory parameters indicated that the connectionist models were better fitted than kinetic models for predicting storage life. PMID:23572735

  15. A Model to Predict Shelf-Life Loss Ofhorticultural Produce During Distribution Withfluctuated Temperature and Vehicle Vibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Weiwei; Li, Daoliang; Liu, Xue; Yue, Jun; Fu, Zetian

    Fresh fruits and vegetables has become a public concern from the food security aspect. And the prediction of shelf-life loss under the fluctuated temperature becomes one of the key problems in food supply chain operation. So this paper identifies the impact aspects of produce decaying during distribution. For the key temperature factor, the process is divided into three phases: sorting, traveling and door-opening. Based on time-temperature function, a model of shelf-life loss of horticultural produce during distribution is developed by evaluating respiration rate of vegetables and fruits considering both the environment fluctuated temperature and vehicle vibration during traveling. Taking eggplant as an example, the numerical experiment result demonstrates that the average cost for ambient distribution is 2.8 times of the insulation way.

  16. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  17. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics.

    PubMed

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person's photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail). Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential (ERP) at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  18. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail). Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential (ERP) at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  19. Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engleman, J. H.; Zirkes-Falco, M. B.; Bogner, R. S.; Pickett, D. F., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

  20. A model for predicting damage induced fatigue life of laminated composite structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen, David H.; Lo, David C.; Georgiou, Ioannis T.; Harris, Charles E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a model for predicting the life of laminated composite structural components subjected to fatigue induced microstructural damage. The model uses the concept of continuum damage mechanics, wherein the effects of microcracks are incorporated into a damage dependent lamination theory instead of treating each crack as an internal boundary. Internal variables are formulated to account for the effects of both matrix cracks and internal delaminations. Evolution laws for determining the damage variables as functions of ply stresses are proposed, and comparisons of predicted damage evolution are made to experiment. In addition, predicted stiffness losses, as well as ply stresses are shown as functions of damage state for a variety of stacking sequences.

  1. Fatigue, fracture, and life prediction criteria for composite materials in magnets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, F.M.G.

    1990-06-01

    An explosively-bonded copper/Inconel 718/copper laminate conductor was proposed to withstand the severe face compression stresses in the central core of the Alcator C-MOD tokamak toroidal field (TF) magnet. Due to the severe duty of the TF magnet, it is critical that an accurate estimate of useful life be determined. As part of the effort to formulate an appropriate life prediction, fatigue crack growth experiments were performed on the laminate as well as its components. Metallographic evaluation of the laminate interface revealed many shear bands in the Inconel 718. Shear bands and shear band cracks were produced in the Inconel 718 as a result of the explosion bonding process. These shear bands were shown to have a detrimental effect on the crack growth behavior of the laminate, by significantly reducing the load carrying capability of the reinforcement layer and providing for easy crack propagation paths. Fatigue crack growth rate was found not only to be dependent on temperature but also on orientation. Fatigue cracks grew faster in directions which contained shear bands in the plane of the propagating crack. Fractography showed crack advancement by fatigue cracking in the Inconel 718 and ductile tearing of the copper at the interface. However, further away from the interfaces, the copper exhibited fatigue striations indicating that cracks were now propagating by fatigue. Laminate life prediction results showed a strong dependence on shear band orientation, and exhibited little variation between room temperature and 77{degree}K. Predicted life of this laminate was lower when the crack propagation was along a shear band than when crack propagation was across the shear bands. Shear bands appear to have a dominating effect on crack growth behavior.

  2. Infants Generate Goal-Based Action Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cannon, Erin N.; Woodward, Amanda L.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the actions of others is critical to smooth social interactions. Prior work suggests that both understanding and anticipation of goal-directed actions appears early in development. In this study, on-line goal prediction was tested explicitly using an adaptation of Woodward's (1998) paradigm for an eye-tracking task. Twenty 11-month-olds…

  3. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  4. Leaf and Life History Traits Predict Plant Growth in a Green Roof Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime’s C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  5. Nomogram for Predicting Time to Death After Withdrawal of Life-Sustaining Treatment in Patients With Devastating Neurological Injury.

    PubMed

    He, X; Xu, G; Liang, W; Liu, B; Xu, Y; Luan, Z; Lu, Y; Ko, D S C; Manyalich, M; Schroder, P M; Guo, Z

    2015-08-01

    Reliable prediction of time of death after withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in patients with devastating neurological injury is crucial to successful donation after cardiac death. Herein, we conducted a study of 419 neurocritical patients who underwent life support withdrawal at four neurosurgical centers in China. Based on a retrospective cohort, we used multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors for patient death, which were then integrated into a nomogram. The model was calibrated and validated using data from an external retrospective cohort and a prospective cohort. We identified 10 variables that were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-indexes for predicting the 60-min death probability in the training, external validation and prospective validation cohorts were 0.96 (0.93-0.98), 0.94 (0.91-0.97), and 0.99 (0.97-1.00), respectively. The calibration plots after WLST showed an optimal agreement between the prediction of time to death by the nomogram and the actual observation for all cohorts. Then we identified 22, 26 and 37 as cut-points for risk stratification into four groups. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated distinct prognoses between patients in the different risk groups (p < 0.001). In conclusion, we have developed and validated a nomogram to accurately identify potential cardiac death donors in neurocritical patients in a Chinese population. PMID:25810114

  6. [Research advance in the drug target prediction based on chemoinformatics].

    PubMed

    Fang, Jian-song; Liu, Ai-lin; Du, Guan-hua

    2014-10-01

    The emerging of network pharmacology and polypharmacology forces the scientists to recognize and explore new mechanisms of existing drugs. The drug target prediction can play a key significance on the elucidation of the molecular mechanism of drugs and drug reposition. In this paper, we systematically review the existing approaches to the prediction of biological targets of small molecule based on chemoinformatics, including ligand-based prediction, receptor-based prediction and data mining-based prediction. We also depict the strength of these methods as well as their applications, and put forward their developing direction. PMID:25577863

  7. Deformation history and load sequence effects on cumulative fatigue damage and life predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, Julie

    Fatigue loading seldom involves constant amplitude loading. This is especially true in the cooling systems of nuclear power plants, typically made of stainless steel, where thermal fluctuations and water turbulent flow create variable amplitude loads, with presence of mean stresses and overloads. These complex loading sequences lead to the formation of networks of microcracks (crazing) that can propagate. As stainless steel is a material with strong deformation history effects and phase transformation resulting from plastic straining, such load sequence and variable amplitude loading effects are significant to its fatigue behavior and life predictions. The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of cyclic deformation on fatigue behavior of stainless steel 304L as a deformation history sensitive material and determine how to quantify and accumulate fatigue damage to enable life predictions under variable amplitude loading conditions for such materials. A comprehensive experimental program including testing under fully-reversed, as well as mean stress and/or mean strain conditions, with initial or periodic overloads, along with step testing and random loading histories was conducted on two grades of stainless steel 304L, under both strain-controlled and load-controlled conditions. To facilitate comparisons with a material without deformation history effects, similar tests were also carried out on aluminum 7075-T6. Experimental results are discussed, including peculiarities observed with stainless steel behavior, such as a phenomenon, referred to as secondary hardening characterized by a continuous increase in the stress response in a strain-controlled test and often leading to runout fatigue life. Possible mechanisms for secondary hardening observed in some tests are also discussed. The behavior of aluminum is shown not to be affected by preloading, whereas the behavior of stainless steel is greatly influenced by prior loading. Mean stress relaxation in

  8. Sensor Based Engine Life Calculation: A Probabilistic Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guo, Ten-Huei; Chen, Philip

    2003-01-01

    It is generally known that an engine component will accumulate damage (life usage) during its lifetime of use in a harsh operating environment. The commonly used cycle count for engine component usage monitoring has an inherent range of uncertainty which can be overly costly or potentially less safe from an operational standpoint. With the advance of computer technology, engine operation modeling, and the understanding of damage accumulation physics, it is possible (and desirable) to use the available sensor information to make a more accurate assessment of engine component usage. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to quantify the effects of engine operating parameter uncertainties on the thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life of a selected engine part. A closed-loop engine simulation with a TMF life model is used to calculate the life consumption of different mission cycles. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to generate the statistical life usage profile for different operating assumptions. The probabilities of failure of different operating conditions are compared to illustrate the importance of the engine component life calculation using sensor information. The results of this study clearly show that a sensor-based life cycle calculation can greatly reduce the risk of component failure as well as extend on-wing component life by avoiding unnecessary maintenance actions.

  9. Predicting RAD-seq Marker Numbers across the Eukaryotic Tree of Life

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Santiago; Reyes-Herrera, Paula H.; Shank, Timothy M.

    2015-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing of reduced representation libraries obtained through digestion with restriction enzymes—generically known as restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq)—is a common strategy to generate genome-wide genotypic and sequence data from eukaryotes. A critical design element of any RAD-seq study is knowledge of the approximate number of genetic markers that can be obtained for a taxon using different restriction enzymes, as this number determines the scope of a project, and ultimately defines its success. This number can only be directly determined if a reference genome sequence is available, or it can be estimated if the genome size and restriction recognition sequence probabilities are known. However, both scenarios are uncommon for nonmodel species. Here, we performed systematic in silico surveys of recognition sequences, for diverse and commonly used type II restriction enzymes across the eukaryotic tree of life. Our observations reveal that recognition sequence frequencies for a given restriction enzyme are strikingly variable among broad eukaryotic taxonomic groups, being largely determined by phylogenetic relatedness. We demonstrate that genome sizes can be predicted from cleavage frequency data obtained with restriction enzymes targeting “neutral” elements. Models based on genomic compositions are also effective tools to accurately calculate probabilities of recognition sequences across taxa, and can be applied to species for which reduced representation data are available (including transcriptomes and neutral RAD-seq data sets). The analytical pipeline developed in this study, PredRAD (https://github.com/phrh/PredRAD), and the resulting databases constitute valuable resources that will help guide the design of any study using RAD-seq or related methods. PMID:26537225

  10. Application of thermal life prediction model to high-temperature aerospace alloys B1900+Hf and Haynes 188

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.; Verrilli, Michael J.; Arya, Vinod K.

    1990-01-01

    The results of the application of a newly proposed thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction method to a series of laboratory TMF results on two high-temperature aerospace engine alloys are presented. The method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, is based on three relatively recent developments: the total strain version of the method of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), the bithermal testing technique for characterizing TMF behavior, and advanced viscoplastic constitutive models. The high-temperature data reported in a companion publication are used to evaluate the constants in the model and to provide the TMF verification data to check its accuracy. Predicted lives are in agreement with the experimental lives to within a factor of approximately 2.

  11. Prediction of fatigue crack propagation life in notched members under variable amplitude loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Z.; Rauf, A.; Younas, M.

    1997-06-01

    One of the interesting phenomenon in the study of fatigue crack propagation under variable amplitude load cycling is the crack growth retardation that normally occurs due to the application of a periodic overload. Fatigue crack growth rate under simple variable amplitude loading sequence incorporating period overloads is studied using single edge notched specimens of AISI304 stainless steel. Load interaction effects due to single and multiple overload have been addressed. Substantial retardation of fatigue crack growth rate is observed due to the introduction of periodic tensile overloads. Estimates of fatigue life have been obtained employing Wheeler model (using Paris and modified Paris equations) and Elber’s model. Analytical predictions are compared with experimental results. Results of these analytical fatigue life predictions show good agreement with the experimental fatigue life data. Fatigue crack propagation rates also have been evaluated from the fractographic study of fatigue striations seen on the fracture surface. Good agreement was found between the experimentally observed crack growth rates and the fatigue crack growth rates determined by the fractographic studies.

  12. Predicting mortality based on body composition analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Tellado, J M; Garcia-Sabrido, J L; Hanley, J A; Shizgal, H M; Christou, N V

    1989-01-01

    The role of the Nae/Ke ratio (the ratio of exchangeable sodium to exchangeable potassium) was examined as a nutritional marker in surgical patients in relation to anthropometrical and biochemical indexes by its ability to identify patients at risk for mortality after hospitalization. In 73 patients with sepsis and malnutrition (Training Group, Madrid) the following were determined: percentage of recent weight loss, triceps skin fold, midarm muscle circumference, serum albumin, serum transferrin, delayed hypersensitivity skin test response, total lymphocytes, and Nae/Ke ratio by multiple isotope dilution. The predictive power of Nae/Ke ratio was so strong (F = 105.1; p less than 0.00001) that it displaced anthropometric, biochemical, and immunologic variables from the linear equation derived from stepwise discriminant analysis using hospital mortality as the dependent variable. A theoretical curve of expected deaths was developed, based on an equation obtained by logistic regression analysis: Pr/death/ = 1/(1 + e[11.8-5.2 Nae/Ke]). Pre- and post-test probabilities on that curve allowed us to determine two cut-off values, Nae/Ke ratios of 1.5 and 2.5, which were markers for nonrisk and mortality, respectively. The model was tested in a heterogeneous data base of surgical patients (n = 417) in another hospital (Validation Group, Montreal). For patients exhibiting an abnormal Nae/Ke ratio (greater than 1.2) and a greater than 10% of probability of death, 54 deaths were expected and 53 observed (X2 = 1.8 NS). Two tests confirmed the basic agreement between the model and its performance, a G statistic of -0.704 and the area beneath the "receiver-operating-characteristic" (ROC) curve (Az = 0.904 + 0.0516 for the Madrid group vs. Az = 0.915 + 0.0349 for the Montreal group, NS). It was concluded from this analysis that, compared with the usual anthropometric measurements, the Nae/Ke ratio, if available, is the best method for identifying malnourished patients at risk of

  13. Comparisons of Prediction Models of Quality of Life after Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: A Longitudinal Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Hon-Yi; Lee, Hao-Hsien; Tsai, Jinn-Tsong; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chen, Chieh-Fan

    2012-01-01

    Background Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility) of the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL) after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. Conclusions/Significance Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data. PMID:23284677

  14. Strain Energy Approach for Axial and Torsional Fatigue Life Prediction in Aged NiCrMoV Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Gee Wook; Hyun, Jung Seob; Ha, Jeong Soo

    Axial and torsional low cycle fatigue tests were performed for NiCrMoV steels serviced low-pressure turbine rotor of nuclear power plant. The results were used to evaluate multiaxial fatigue life models including Tresca, von Mises and Brown and Miller's critical plane. The fatigue life predicted by the multiaxial fatigue models didn't correspond with the experimental results in small strain range. We proposed the total strain energy density model to predict torsional fatigue life from axial fatigue data. The total strain energy density model was found to best correlate the experimental data with predictions being within a factor of 2.

  15. Optimism and prostate cancer-specific expectations predict better quality of life after robotic prostatectomy.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Andrea A; Perez, Martin A; Oh, Sindy; Crocitto, Laura

    2012-06-01

    We examined the relations among generalized positive expectations (optimism), prostate-cancer specific expectations, and prostate cancer-related quality of life in a prospective sample of 83 men who underwent robotic assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy (RALP) for prostate cancer. Optimism was significantly associated with higher prostate cancer-specific expectations, β = .36, p < .001. In addition, optimism and prostate cancer-specific expectations were independent prospective predictors of better scores on the following prostate cancer-related quality of life scales: Sexual Intimacy and Sexual Confidence; Masculine Self-Esteem (specific expectations only), Health Worry, Cancer Control, and Informed Decision Making (βs > .21, ps < .05). When considered simultaneously, both optimism and specific expectations contributed uniquely to better Health Worry and Cancer Control scores, optimism was a unique predictor of better Sexual Intimacy and Sexual Confidence scores, and specific expectations uniquely predicted higher scores on Informed Decision Making. Although optimism and prostate-cancer specific expectations are related, they contribute uniquely to several prostate cancer-related quality of life outcomes following RALP and may be important targets for quality of life research with this population. PMID:22051931

  16. Incorporation of Half-Cycle Theory Into Ko Aging Theory for Aerostructural Flight-Life Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Tran, Van T.; Chen, Tony

    2007-01-01

    The half-cycle crack growth theory was incorporated into the Ko closed-form aging theory to improve accuracy in the predictions of operational flight life of failure-critical aerostructural components. A new crack growth computer program was written for reading the maximum and minimum loads of each half-cycle from the random loading spectra for crack growth calculations and generation of in-flight crack growth curves. The unified theories were then applied to calculate the number of flights (operational life) permitted for B-52B pylon hooks and Pegasus adapter pylon hooks to carry the Hyper-X launching vehicle that air launches the X-43 Hyper-X research vehicle. A crack growth curve for each hook was generated for visual observation of the crack growth behavior during the entire air-launching or captive flight. It was found that taxiing and the takeoff run induced a major portion of the total crack growth per flight. The operational life theory presented can be applied to estimate the service life of any failure-critical structural components.

  17. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

  18. Ultrasonic Method for Prediction of Residual Life of Creep Damaged Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong-Yeol; Kim, Hak-Joon; Song, Sung-Jin; Kim, Bum-Joon; Lim, Byeong-Soo

    2009-03-01

    In the previous study, residual life time of creep damaged 9Cr-2W steel specimens were evaluated using attenuation of ultrasound and area fraction of precipitates. Since attenuation coefficients and area fraction of precipitates were increased as increasing their aging time. However, cause of increasing attenuation of ultrasound is not only increase in precipitates but also grain growth. So, in this study, we calculated attenuation coefficients for grain growth using the single scattering model in order to find effect grain growth in the creep damaged materials on attenuation. Then, we extract attenuation coefficients for precipitates from the measured ultrasonic attenuation of creep damaged specimens by subtracting attenuation coefficients for grain boundaries using the calculated attenuation. And, we predicted residual life time of the creep damaged specimens by using the attenuation for precipitates.

  19. Measurement Techniques and Instruments Suitable for Life-prediction Testing of Photovoltaic Arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noel, G. T.; Wood, V. E.; Mcginniss, V. D.; Hassell, J. A.; Richard, N. A.; Gaines, G. B.; Carmichael, D. C.

    1979-01-01

    The validation of a 20-year service life for low-cost photovoltaic arrays is a critical requirement in the Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project. The validation is accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A two-phase study was conducted to address the needs before such tests are carried out. The results and recommended techniques from the Phase 1 investigation are summarized in the appendix. Phase 2 of the study is covered in this report and consisted of experimental evaluations of three techniques selected from these recommended as a results of the Phase 1 findings. The three techniques evaluated were specular and nonspecular optical reflectometry, chemiluminescence measurements, and electric current noise measurements.

  20. From First Life to Second Life: Evaluating Task-Based Language Learning in a New Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jee, Min Jung

    2014-01-01

    With its growing number of users, Second Life as one of the avatar-based 3D virtual worlds has received attention from educators and researchers in various fields to explore its pedagogical benefits. Given the increasing implementation of technologies broadly in much instruction, this study investigated how ESL students negotiated meanings in…

  1. Isothermal Fatigue, Damage Accumulation, and Life Prediction of a Woven PMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.

    1998-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the characterization of the fully reversed fatigue behavior exhibited by a carbon fiber/polyimide resin, woven laminate at room and elevated temperatures. Nondestructive video edge view microscopy and destructive sectioning techniques were used to study the microscopic damage mechanisms that evolved. The residual elastic stiffness was monitored and recorded throughout the fatigue life of the coupon. In addition, residual compressive strength tests were conducted on fatigue coupons with various degrees of damage as quantified by stiffness reduction. Experimental results indicated that the monotonic tensile properties were only minimally influenced by temperature, while the monotonic compressive and fully reversed fatigue properties displayed noticeable reductions due to the elevated temperature. The stiffness degradation, as a function of cycles, consisted of three stages; a short-lived high degradation period, a constant degradation rate segment composing the majority of the life, and a final stage demonstrating an increasing rate of degradation up to failure. Concerning the residual compressive strength tests at room and elevated temperatures, the elevated temperature coupons appeared much more sensitive to damage. At elevated temperatures, coupons experienced a much larger loss in compressive strength when compared to room temperature coupons with equivalent damage. The fatigue damage accumulation law proposed for the model incorporates a scalar representation for damage, but admits a multiaxial, anisotropic evolutionary law. The model predicts the current damage (as quantified by residual stiffness) and remnant life of a composite that has undergone a known load at temperature. The damage/life model is dependent on the applied multiaxial stress state as well as temperature. Comparisons between the model and data showed good predictive capabilities concerning stiffness degradation and cycles to failure.

  2. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (ISOTROPIC) fifth year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Harvey, Peter R.

    1987-01-01

    The need for advanced life prediction methods for hot section components for gas turbine engines is becoming more and more evident. The complex local strain and temperature histories at critical locations must be accurately interpreted to account for the effects of various damage mechanisms and their possible interactions. This program is designed to investigate these fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines.

  3. Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic): Fourth year progress review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Richard S.; Schoendorf, John F.

    1986-01-01

    As gas turbine technology continues to advance, the need for advanced life prediction methods for hot section components is becoming more and more evident. The complex local strain and temperature histories at critical locations must be accurately interpreted to account for the effects of various damage mechanisms (such as fatigue, creep, and oxidation) and their possible interactions. As part of the overall NASA HOST effort, this program is designed to investigate these fundamental damage processes, identify modeling strategies, and develop practical models which can be used to guide the early design and development of new engines and to increase the durability of existing engines.

  4. Progressive failure methodologies for predicting residual strength and life of laminated composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Obrien, T. Kevin

    1991-01-01

    Two progressive failure methodologies currently under development by the Mechanics of Materials Branch at NASA Langley Research Center are discussed. The damage tolerance/fail safety methodology developed by O'Brien is an engineering approach to ensuring adequate durability and damage tolerance by treating only delamination onset and the subsequent delamination accumulation through the laminate thickness. The continuum damage model developed by Allen and Harris employs continuum damage laws to predict laminate strength and life. The philosophy, mechanics framework, and current implementation status of each methodology are presented.

  5. Electrical Resistance of Ceramic Matrix Composites for Damage Detection and Life-Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Craig; Morscher, Gregory N.; Xia, Zhenhai

    2008-01-01

    The electric resistance of woven SiC fiber reinforced SiC matrix composites were measured under tensile loading conditions. The results show that the electrical resistance is closely related to damage and that real-time information about the damage state can be obtained through monitoring of the resistance. Such self-sensing capability provides the possibility of on-board/in-situ damage detection or inspection of a component during "down time". The correlation of damage with appropriate failure mechanism can then be applied to accurate life prediction for high-temperature ceramic matrix composites.

  6. Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

  7. The Potential United Kingdom Energy Gap and Creep Life Prediction Methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The United Kingdom faces a looming energy gap with around 20 pct of its generating capacity due for closure in the next 10 to 15 years as a result of plant age and new European legislation on environmental protection and safety at work. A number of solutions exist for this problem including the use of new materials so that new plants can operate at higher temperatures, new technologies related to carbon capture and gasification, development of renewable resources, and less obviously the use of accurate models for predicting creep life. This article reviews, with illustrations, some of the more applicable and successful creep prediction methodologies used by academics and industrialists and highlights how these techniques can help alleviate the looming energy gap. The role that these approaches can play in solving the energy gap is highlighted throughout.

  8. Prediction of Service Life of Cordierite-Mullite Refractory Materials by Non-Destructive Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boccaccini, D. N.; Kamseu, Elie; Volkov-Husoviæ, T. D.; Cannio, M.; Romagnoli, M.; Veronesi, P.; Dlouhy, I.; Boccaccini, A. R.; Leonelli, C.

    2008-02-01

    Ultrasonic pulse velocity testing was used to perform non-destructive quality control of refractory plates used as substrates in fast firing of porcelain whitewares. The measurement of the ultrasonic velocity was used to asses the presence of internal voids or cracks originated from the manufacturing procedure. Image analysis was used to predict thermal stability of the refractory materials. Two cordierite-mullite compositions were investigated that are characterized by different microstructure morphologies and crack propagation behaviour. A brief discussion about the correlation between microstructure, crack propagation behaviour and thermal shock resistance is presented. Moreover, empirical models were developed to predict the service life of refractory plates from measured values of ultrasonic velocities in plates in the as-received state.

  9. Prediction of Service Life of Cordierite-Mullite Refractory Materials by Non-Destructive Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Boccaccini, D. N.; Kamseu, Elie; Cannio, M.; Romagnoli, M.; Veronesi, P.; Leonelli, C.; Volkov-Husoviae, T. D.; Dlouhy, I.; Boccaccini, A. R.

    2008-02-15

    Ultrasonic pulse velocity testing was used to perform non-destructive quality control of refractory plates used as substrates in fast firing of porcelain whitewares. The measurement of the ultrasonic velocity was used to asses the presence of internal voids or cracks originated from the manufacturing procedure. Image analysis was used to predict thermal stability of the refractory materials. Two cordierite-mullite compositions were investigated that are characterized by different microstructure morphologies and crack propagation behaviour. A brief discussion about the correlation between microstructure, crack propagation behaviour and thermal shock resistance is presented. Moreover, empirical models were developed to predict the service life of refractory plates from measured values of ultrasonic velocities in plates in the as-received state.

  10. Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-01-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

  11. [Significance of subjective evaluation of life events as risk factors for predicting future suicide attempts].

    PubMed

    Chrostek Maj, J; Polewka, A; Kroch, S; Mikołaszek-Boba, M; Rachel, W; Datka, W

    2001-01-01

    Among the total population of 180 patients undergoing medical examination between March and December 2000, hospitalized for suicide attempts (drug intoxication) in the Department of Clinical Toxicology CM UJ in Kraków, 159 persons were examined by means of modified questionnaire of life events based on a scale elaborated by Thomas Holmes and Richard Rache. The patients were divided into 2 groups--first group comprised patients after first suicide attempt and second group consisted of those who had reattempted suicide. In regard to sex and age there were no significant differences between these two groups and the total population of 180 patients. In order to obtain the patients' subjective evaluation of the influence of their course of life on their attempting suicide, we asked the patients to select from the list of life events those that had affected their mental and physical state during of whole their life. Objectivization of life events was based on the 'units of life change' by T. Holmes and R. Rache. The sum of units of life events was 373 scores (SD +/- 200, in the range of 39-1042 units). From the total list of life events (max. score--1513) we selected the events estimated at 40 and more units of life change. Those were; marriage, divorce, separation, marital reconciliation, patient's illness, change of behavior and illness of a close relative, death of a husband/wife, child, close relative, imprisonment, pregnancy, unemployment, retirement. In the patients' subjective evaluation part, the events most frequently selected by the patients as those that had affected their mental state were: death of a close relative (56.6%), illness of a relative (40.8%), patient's illness (37.7%). A high number of patients stated events testifying to a conflict in marriage--45.7% of patients stated marital separation, and reconciliation, and 27% of patients stated unemployment as a fact that had influenced their mental state. 30.6% of these patients belonged to the first

  12. Mechanical Component Lifetime Estimation Based on Accelerated Life Testing with Singularity Extrapolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, C.; Chuckpaiwong, I.; Liang, S. Y.; Seth, B. B.

    2002-07-01

    Life testing under nominal operating conditions of mechanical parts with high mean lifetime between failure (MTBF) often consumes a significant amount of time and resources, rendering such procedures expensive and impractical. As a result, the technology of accelerated life testing (ALT) has been developed for testing at high stress levels (e.g. temperature, voltage, pressure, corrosive media, load, vibration amplitude, etc.) so that it can be extrapolated—through a physically reasonable statistical model—to obtain estimations of life at lower, normal stress levels or even limit stress levels. However, the issue of prediction accuracy associated with extrapolating data outside the range of testing, or even to a singularity level (no stress), has not yet been fully addressed. In this research, an accelerator factor is introduced into an inverse power law model to estimate the life distribution in terms of time and stresses. Also, a generalized Eyring model is set up for singularity extrapolation in handling limit stress level conditions. The procedure to calibrate the associated shape factors based on the maximum likelihood principle is also formulated. The methodology implementation, based on a one-main-step, multiple-step-stress test scheme, is experimentally illustrated with tapered roller bearing under the stress of environmental corrosion as a case study. The experimental results show that the developed accelerated life test model can effectively evaluate the life probability of a bearing based on accelerated testing data when extrapolating to the stress levels within or outside the range of testing.

  13. Modelling the interactions between Lactobacillus curvatus and Enterobacter cloacae. II. Mixed cultures and shelf life predictions.

    PubMed

    Malakar, P K; Martens, D E; Zwietering, M H; Béal, C; van 't Riet, K

    1999-10-01

    The modelling approach presented in this study can be used to predict when interactions between microorganisms in homogenous systems occur. It was tested for the interaction between Lactobacillus curvatus and Enterobacter cloacae. In this binary system, L. curvatus produces lactic acid which decreases the pH in the system. The pH decrease was found to be the main limiting factor of growth of both E. cloacae and L. curvatus. This resulted in E. cloacae reaching its final concentration earlier when compared to its growth in pure culture. The models consisted of a set of first order ordinary differential equations describing the growth, consumption and production rates of both microorganisms. The parameters for these equations were obtained from pure culture studies and from literature. These equations were solved using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. The prediction of growth in mixed culture using parameters from pure culture experiments and literature were close to the experimental data. Both model predictions and experimental validation indicated that interaction occurs when the concentration of L. curvatus reaches 10(8) cfu/ml. At that moment in time, the pH had decreased to inhibiting levels. These concentrations of microorganisms (10(8) cfu/ml) do occur in fermented products where interactions obviously are important. In nonfermented foods however, this level of microorganisms indicate that spoilage has occurred or is about to start. Microbial interactions can therefore be neglected when predicting shelf life or safety of food products in most cases. PMID:10563464

  14. Adolescent inpatient girls’ report of dependent life events predicts prospective suicide risk

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Lindsey Beth; Liu, Richard; Yen, Shirley

    2014-01-01

    Adolescents with a history of suicidal behavior are especially vulnerable for future suicide attempts, particularly following discharge from an inpatient psychiatric admission. This study is the first to test whether adolescents’ tendency to generate stress, or report more dependent events to which they contributed, was predictive of prospective suicide events. Ninety adolescent psychiatric inpatients who were admitted for recent suicide risk, completed diagnostic interviews, assessments of history of suicidal behavior, and a self-report questionnaire of major life events at baseline. Participants were followed over the subsequent 6 months after discharge to assess stability vs. onset of suicide events. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to predict adolescents’ time to suicide events. Results supported hypothesis, such that only recent greater dependent events, not independent or overall events, predicted risk for prospective suicide events. This effect was specific to adolescent girls. Importantly, dependent events maintained statistical significance as a predictor of future suicide events after co-varying for the effects of several established risk factors and psychopathology. Results suggest that the tendency to generate dependent events may contribute unique additional prediction for adolescent girls’ prospective suicide risk, and highlight the need for future work in this area. PMID:24893759

  15. Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    1998-01-01

    High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and

  16. Correlate Life Predictions and Condition Indicators in Helicopter Tail Gearbox Bearings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Bolander, Nathan; Haynes, Chris; Branning, Jeremy; Wade, Daniel R.

    2010-01-01

    Research to correlate bearing remaining useful life (RUL) predictions with Helicopter Health Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) condition indicators (CI) to indicate the damage state of a transmission component has been developed. Condition indicators were monitored and recorded on UH-60M (Black Hawk) tail gearbox output shaft thrust bearings, which had been removed from helicopters and installed in a bearing spall propagation test rig. Condition indicators monitoring the tail gearbox output shaft thrust bearings in UH-60M helicopters were also recorded from an on-board HUMS. The spal-lpropagation data collected in the test rig was used to generate condition indicators for bearing fault detection. A damage progression model was also developed from this data. Determining the RUL of this component in a helicopter requires the CI response to be mapped to the damage state. The data from helicopters and a test rig were analyzed to determine if bearing remaining useful life predictions could be correlated with HUMS condition indicators (CI). Results indicate data fusion analysis techniques can be used to map the CI response to the damage levels.

  17. Ultrasonic Sensing and Life Prediction for the DARPA Structural Integrity Prognosis System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michaels, Jennifer E.; Michaels, Thomas E.; Cobb, Adam C.; Kacprzynski, Gregory J.

    2007-03-01

    The overall objective of the DARPA Structural Integrity Prognosis System (SIPS) program is to develop technologies to advance material damage state condition assessment with limited or no dedicated maintenance action. As a part of the sensors thrust area, an in situ ultrasonic sensing method was developed and demonstrated to detect cracks initiating from fastener holes and provide an estimate of total crack area. Crack area estimates were combined with load history data, projected future loads, and life prediction models to determine a probability density function for time-to-failure. The ultrasonic method utilizes two shear wave angle beam transducers operating in through transmission mode which are mounted on either side of the hole. The transmitted wave travels through the area of expected cracking, and the presence of cracks around the fastener holes decreases the amount of acoustic energy that is received. Furthermore, as cracks open and close during the fatigue process, the received energy is modulated, i.e., decreased when the cracks are open versus closed, and this non-linear behavior is the basis of algorithms developed to detect and size fastener holes cracks. The ultrasonic method was demonstrated as part of an integrated SIPS demonstration whereby aircraft-grade aluminum subcomponents were fatigued to failure. Results are presented from both the ultrasonic measurements and the integrated life prediction software.

  18. Life and death in the Lone Star State: three decades of violence predictions by capital juries.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Mark D; Sorensen, Jon R; Vigen, Mark P; Woods, S O

    2011-01-01

    The accuracy of three decades of Texas jury predictions of future violence by capital defendants was tested through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of former death row (FDR) inmates in Texas (N = 111) who had been sentenced to death under this "special issue" and subsequently obtained relief from their death sentences between 1989 and 2008. FDR inmates typically had extended tenures on death row (M = 9.9 years) and post-relief in the general prison population (M = 8.4 years). FDR prevalence of serious assault was low, both on death row (3.6%) and upon entering the prison population (4.5%). None of the assaults resulted in life-threatening injuries to the victims. Violence among the FDR inmates was not disproportionate compared with life-sentenced capital offenders. Consistent with other research, juror expectations of serious prison violence by these offenders had high error (i.e., false positive) rates. The confidence of legislators and courts in the violence prediction capabilities of capital jurors is misplaced. PMID:21105010

  19. Profiles of observed infant anger predict preschool behavior problems: Moderation by life stress

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Davidson, Richard J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2014-01-01

    Using both traditional composites and novel profiles of anger, we examined associations between infant anger and preschool behavior problems in a large, longitudinal data set (N = 966). We also tested the role of life stress as a moderator of the link between early anger and the development of behavior problems. Although traditional measures of anger were largely unrelated to later behavior problems, profiles of anger that dissociated typical from atypical development predicted behavior problems during preschool. Moreover, the relation between infant anger profiles and preschool behavior problems was moderated such that, when early life stress was low, infants with atypical profiles of early anger showed more preschool behavior problems than did infants with normative anger profiles. However, when early life stress was high, infants with atypical and normative profiles of infant anger did not differ in preschool behavior problems. We conclude that a discrete emotions approach including latent profile analysis is useful for elucidating biological and environmental developmental pathways to early problem behaviors. PMID:25151247

  20. Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world.

    PubMed

    Van Allen, Benjamin G; Dunham, Amy E; Asquith, Christopher M; Rudolf, Volker H W

    2012-07-01

    Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances. PMID:22398172

  1. Continuum Damage Mechanics Used to Predict the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Jadaan, Osama M.

    1998-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated temperature applications. High-temperature and long-duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. An analytical methodology in the form of the integrated design program-Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep (CARES/Creep) has been developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict the life of ceramic structural components subjected to creep rupture conditions. This program utilizes commercially available finite element packages and takes into account the transient state of stress and creep strain distributions (stress relaxation as well as the asymmetric response to tension and compression). The creep life of a component is discretized into short time steps, during which the stress distribution is assumed constant. Then, the damage is calculated for each time step on the basis of a modified Monkman-Grant (MMG) creep rupture criterion. The cumulative damage is subsequently calculated as time elapses in a manner similar to Miner's rule for cyclic fatigue loading. Failure is assumed to occur when the normalized cumulative damage at any point in the component reaches unity. The corresponding time is the creep rupture life for that component.

  2. Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

    PubMed Central

    Ogada, Pamella Akoth; Moualeu, Dany Pascal; Poehling, Hans-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector’s life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis’ life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector–based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector. PMID:27159134

  3. Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus.

    PubMed

    Ogada, Pamella Akoth; Moualeu, Dany Pascal; Poehling, Hans-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector. PMID:27159134

  4. Predicting the life-cycle performance of an EGS by numerical simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöcher, G.; Zimmermann, G.; Moeck, I.; Brandt, W.; Huenges, E.

    2009-04-01

    matrix and fractures were determined by laboratory and field experiments. We present the predicted temperature change during 30 years life-cycle due to continuous injection of 70°C cold water /after serving as the heat source for a ORC power cycle) with a flow rate of 75m³/h.

  5. Group-Based Life Design Counseling in an Italian Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Di Fabio, Annamaria; Maree, Jacobus Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of group-based Life Design Counseling using the Career-Story Interview. Written exercises were used to implement the seven topics in the Career-Story Interview. The present study employed an experimental design that involved two groups of Italian entrepreneurs from the agricultural and trade sectors, namely an…

  6. Science gateways for semantic-web-based life science applications.

    PubMed

    Ardizzone, Valeria; Bruno, Riccardo; Calanducci, Antonio; Carrubba, Carla; Fargetta, Marco; Ingrà, Elisa; Inserra, Giuseppina; La Rocca, Giuseppe; Monforte, Salvatore; Pistagna, Fabrizio; Ricceri, Rita; Rotondo, Riccardo; Scardaci, Diego; Barbera, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present the architecture of a framework for building Science Gateways supporting official standards both for user authentication and authorization and for middleware-independent job and data management. Two use cases of the customization of the Science Gateway framework for Semantic-Web-based life science applications are also described. PMID:22942003

  7. Life Skills Based in Nation Building Character Value Tauhidullah

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yapandi, H.

    2015-01-01

    This study discusses the values Tauhidullah as a base in the training process of life skills can be developed in the community to build the character of the nation, by describing and simultaneously evaluate the education and training system that we've experienced. The paper argues that builds the character of the nation through education…

  8. Feature Selection for Neural Network Based Stock Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugunnasil, Prompong; Somhom, Samerkae

    We propose a new methodology of feature selection for stock movement prediction. The methodology is based upon finding those features which minimize the correlation relation function. We first produce all the combination of feature and evaluate each of them by using our evaluate function. We search through the generated set with hill climbing approach. The self-organizing map based stock prediction model is utilized as the prediction method. We conduct the experiment on data sets of the Microsoft Corporation, General Electric Co. and Ford Motor Co. The results show that our feature selection method can improve the efficiency of the neural network based stock prediction.

  9. A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

    2013-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

  10. Bayesian probabilistic model for life prediction and fault mode classification of solid state luminaires

    SciTech Connect

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

    2014-06-22

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminous flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  11. Analysis of some predictive factors of quality of life among type 2 diabetic patients

    PubMed Central

    Tol, Azar; Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Eslami, Ahmadali; Shojaeizadeh, Davoud; Alhani, Fatemeh; Tehrani, Mohamadreza Mohajeri

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Considering the chronic nature of diabetes and its significant effect on quality of life of patients, the present study was conducted to evaluate predictors of quality of life in these patients in order to facilitate planning health promotion intervention programs. Materials and Methods: The present study was designed as a cross-sectional study on 140 type 2 diabetic patients of Om-ol-Banin Diabetes Center of Isfahan. Data collection tool was a multidimensional questionnaire including demographic and disease related data (12 items), the standard scale for diabetes distress (17 items), the standard scale for self-efficacy in diabetic patients (8 items), and standard scale for specific quality of life of diabetic patients (15 items). Collected data were evaluated by SPSS version 11.5 using the Chi-square test, Independent T-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation and multivariate regression analysis. Results: Results showed that the quality of life of diabetic patients had a statistically significant correlation with diabetes distress variable (P < 0.001) and self-efficacy variable (P < 0.001). In this study R2 (predictive power) was 0.66. Multivariate regression model indicated diabetes distress (β = -0.277, P = 0.01) and self-efficacy (β = -0.161, P < 0.001) as variables influencing adjusted self-management for other variables. Conclusion: The result of the present study urges that in planning health promotion interventions in the field of diabetes, more attention be paid to self-efficacy and diabetes distress variables in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the interventions carried out. PMID:25767820

  12. Link prediction based on path entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zhongqi; Pu, Cunlai; Yang, Jian

    2016-08-01

    Information theory has been taken as a prospective tool for quantifying the complexity of complex networks. In this paper, first we study the information entropy or uncertainty of a path using the information theory. After that, we apply the path entropy to the link prediction problem in real-world networks. Specifically, we propose a new similarity index, namely Path Entropy (PE) index, which considers the information entropies of shortest paths between node pairs with penalization to long paths. Empirical experiments demonstrate that PE index outperforms the mainstream of link predictors.

  13. Life histories of hosts and pathogens predict patterns in tropical fungal plant diseases.

    PubMed

    García-Guzmán, Graciela; Heil, Martin

    2014-03-01

    Plant pathogens affect the fitness of their hosts and maintain biodiversity. However, we lack theories to predict the type and intensity of infections in wild plants. Here we demonstrate using fungal pathogens of tropical plants that an examination of the life histories of hosts and pathogens can reveal general patterns in their interactions. Fungal infections were more commonly reported for light-demanding than for shade-tolerant species and for evergreen rather than for deciduous hosts. Both patterns are consistent with classical defence theory, which predicts lower resistance in fast-growing species and suggests that the deciduous habit can reduce enemy populations. In our literature survey, necrotrophs were found mainly to infect shade-tolerant woody species whereas biotrophs dominated in light-demanding herbaceous hosts. Far-red signalling and its inhibitory effects on jasmonic acid signalling are likely to explain this phenomenon. Multiple changes between the necrotrophic and the symptomless endophytic lifestyle at the ecological and evolutionary scale indicate that endophytes should be considered when trying to understand large-scale patterns in the fungal infections of plants. Combining knowledge about the molecular mechanisms of pathogen resistance with classical defence theory enables the formulation of testable predictions concerning general patterns in the infections of wild plants by fungal pathogens. PMID:24171899

  14. Life-history traits and landscape characteristics predict macro-moth responses to forest fragmentation.

    PubMed

    Slade, Eleanor M; Merckx, Thomas; Riutta, Terhi; Bebber, Daniel P; Redhead, David; Riordan, Philip; Macdonald, David W

    2013-07-01

    How best to manage forest patches, mitigate the consequences of forest fragmentation, and enable landscape permeability are key questions facing conservation scientists and managers. Many temperate forests have become increasingly fragmented, resulting in reduced interior forest habitat, increased edge habitats, and reduced connectivity. Using a citizen science landscape-scale mark-release-recapture study on 87 macro-moth species, we investigated how both life-history traits and landscape characteristics predicted macro-moth responses to forest fragmentation. Wingspan, wing shape, adult feeding, and larval feeding guild predicted macro-moth mobility, although the predictive power of wingspan and wing shape depended on the species' affinity to the forest. Solitary trees and small fragments functioned as "stepping stones," especially when their landscape connectivity was increased, by being positioned within hedgerows or within a favorable matrix. Mobile forest specialists were most affected by forest fragmentation: despite their high intrinsic dispersal capability, these species were confined mostly to the largest of the forest patches due to their strong affinity for the forest habitat, and were also heavily dependent on forest connectivity in order to cross the agricultural matrix. Forest fragments need to be larger than five hectares and to have interior forest more than 100 m from the edge in order to sustain populations of forest specialists. Our study provides new insights into the movement patterns of a functionally important insect group, with implications for the landscape-scale management of forest patches within agricultural landscapes. PMID:23951712

  15. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Huber, K; Dänicke, S; Rehage, J; Sauerwein, H; Otto, W; Rolle-Kampczyk, U; von Bergen, M

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  16. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    PubMed Central

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  17. PrediQt-Cx: Post Treatment Health Related Quality of Life Prediction Model for Cervical Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Satwant; Rana, Madhu Lata; Verma, Khushboo; Singh, Narayanjeet; Sharma, Anil Kumar; Maria, Arun Kumar; Dhaliwal, Gobind Singh; Khaira, Harkiran Kaur; Saini, Sunil

    2014-01-01

    Background Cervical cancer is the third largest cause of cancer mortality in India. The objectives of the study were to compare the pre and the post treatment quality of life in cervical cancer patients and to develop a prediction model to provide an insight into the possibilities in the treatment modules. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 198 patients were assessed with two structured questionnaires of Health Related Quality of Life (The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, EORTC QLQ C-30 and CX-24). The baseline observations were recorded when the patients first reported (T1) and second evaluation was done at 6 months post treatment (T2). The mean age of detection was 50.9 years with the literacy level being non-educated or less than high school. Majority of them were married/cohabiting 179 (90.4%). On histopathological examination (HPE) squamous cell carcinoma was found to be the most common cell type carcinoma 147 (74.2%) followed by Adenocarcinoma 31 (15.7%). Radical hysterectomy was the most common treatment modality 76 (38.4%), followed by Wertheims Hysterectomy 46 (23.2%) and Radiochemotherapy 59 (29.8%). The mean score of global health of cervical cancer patients post treatment was 77.90, which was significantly higher than the pre - treatment score (54.32). Mean “symptoms score” post treatment was 21.69 with an aggravation of 7.32 compared to pre treatment scores. Patients experienced substantial decrease in sexual activity post treatment. Conclusions/Significance The prediction model(PrediQt-Cx), based on Support Vector Machine(SVM) for predicting post treatment HRQoL in cervical cancer patients was developed and internally cross validated. After external validation PrediQt-Cx can be easily employed to support decision making by clinicians and patients from north India region, through openly made available for access at http://prediqt.org. PMID:24587074

  18. Structure based prediction of protein folding intermediates.

    PubMed

    Xie, D; Freire, E

    1994-09-01

    The complete unfolding of a protein involves the disruption of non-covalent intramolecular interactions within the protein and the subsequent hydration of the backbone and amino acid side-chains. The magnitude of the thermodynamic parameters associated with this process is known accurately for a growing number of globular proteins for which high-resolution structures are also available. The existence of this database of structural and thermodynamic information has facilitated the development of statistical procedures aimed at quantifying the relationships existing between protein structure and the thermodynamic parameters of folding/unfolding. Under some conditions proteins do not unfold completely, giving rise to states (commonly known as molten globules) in which the molecule retains some secondary structure and remains in a compact configuration after denaturation. This phenomenon is reflected in the thermodynamics of the process. Depending on the nature of the residual structure that exists after denaturation, the observed enthalpy, entropy and heat capacity changes will deviate in a particular and predictable way from the values expected for complete unfolding. For several proteins, these deviations have been shown to exhibit similar characteristics, suggesting that their equilibrium folding intermediates exhibit some common structural features. Employing empirically derived structure-energetic relationships, it is possible to identify in the native structure of the protein those regions with the higher probability of being structured in equilibrium partly folded states. In this work, a thermodynamic search algorithm aimed at identifying the structural determinants of the molten globule state has been applied to six globular proteins; alpha-lactalbumin, barnase, IIIGlc, interleukin-1 beta, phage T4 lysozyme and phage 434 repressor. Remarkably, the structural features of the predicted equilibrium intermediates coincide to a large extent with the known

  19. Probabilistic Study Conducted on Sensor-Based Engine Life Calculation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guo, Ten-Huei

    2004-01-01

    Turbine engine life management is a very complicated process to ensure the safe operation of an engine subjected to complex usage. The challenge of life management is to find a reasonable compromise between the safe operation and the maximum usage of critical parts to reduce maintenance costs. The commonly used "cycle count" approach does not take the engine operation conditions into account, and it oversimplifies the calculation of the life usage. Because of the shortcomings, many engine components are regularly pulled for maintenance before their usable life is over. And, if an engine has been running regularly under more severe conditions, components might not be taken out of service before they exceed their designed risk of failure. The NASA Glenn Research Center and its industrial and academic partners have been using measurable parameters to improve engine life estimation. This study was based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 typical flights under various operating conditions. First a closed-loop engine model was developed to simulate the engine operation across the mission profile and a thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage model was used to calculate the actual damage during takeoff, where the maximum TMF accumulates. Next, a Weibull distribution was used to estimate the implied probability of failure for a given accumulated cycle count. Monte Carlo simulations were then employed to find the profiles of the TMF damage under different operating assumptions including parameter uncertainties. Finally, probabilities of failure for different operating conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the importance of a sensor-based damage calculation in order to better manage the risk of failure and on-wing life.

  20. Fatigue life prediction using multiaxial energy calculations with the mean stress effect to predict failure of linear and nonlinear elastic solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagode, Marko; Šeruga, Domen

    An approach is presented that enables the calculation of elastic strain energy in linear and nonlinear elastic solids during arbitrary thermomechanical load cycles. The approach uses the simple fact that the variation of both strain and complementary energies always forms a rectangular shape in stress-strain space, hence integration is no longer required to calculate the energy. Furthermore, the approach considers the mean stress effect so that predictions of fatigue damage are more realistically representative of real-life experimental observations. By doing so, a parameter has been proposed to adjust the mean stress effect. This parameter α is based on the well-known Smith-Watson-Topper energy criterion, but allows consideration of other arbitrary mean stress effects, e.g. the Bergmann type criterion. The approach has then been incorporated into a numerical method which can be applied to uniaxial and multiaxial, proportional and non-proportional loadings to predict fatigue damage. The end result of the method is the cyclic evolution of accumulated damage. Numerical examples show how the method presented in this paper could be applied to a nonlinear elastic material.

  1. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-01-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  2. A simplified design procedure for life prediction of rocket thrust chambers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Porowski, J. S.; Odonnell, W. J.; Badlani, M. L.; Kasraie, B.; Kasper, H. J.

    1982-01-01

    An analytical procedure for predicting thrust chamber life is developed. The hot-gas-wall ligaments separating the coolant and combustion gas are subjected to pressure loading and severe thermal cycling. The resulting stresses interact during plastic straining causing incremental bulging of the ligaments during each firing cycle. This mechanism of plastic ratcheting is analyzed and a method using a yield surface for combined bending and membrane loading developed for determining the incremental permanent deflection and progressive thinning near the center of the ligaments. Fatigue and tensile instability are analyzed as possible failure modes. Results of the simplified analyses compare favorably with available experimental data and finite element analysis results for OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper. They are also in reasonably good agreement with experimental data for NARloy Z, a copper-zirconium-silver alloy developed by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International.

  3. Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

  4. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-10-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  5. Speech perception in infancy predicts language development in the second year of life: a longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Tsao, Feng-Ming; Liu, Huei-Mei; Kuhl, Patricia K

    2004-01-01

    Infants' early phonetic perception is hypothesized to play an important role in language development. Previous studies have not assessed this potential link in the first 2 years of life. In this study, speech discrimination was measured in 6-month-old infants using a conditioned head-turn task. At 13, 16, and 24 months of age, language development was assessed in these same children using the MacArthur Communicative Development Inventory. Results demonstrated significant correlations between speech perception at 6 months of age and later language (word understanding, word production, phrase understanding). The finding that speech perception performance at 6 months predicts language at 2 years supports the idea that phonetic perception may play an important role in language acquisition. PMID:15260865

  6. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  7. Early Life Socioeconomic Circumstance and Late Life Brain Hyperintensities – A Population Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Alison D.; McNeil, Christopher J.; Salarirad, Sima; Whalley, Lawrence J.; Staff, Roger T.

    2014-01-01

    socioeconomic circumstance is similar to and independent from that of hypertension. Conclusions Childhood socioeconomic circumstance predicts the burden of brain white matter hyperintensities aged 68 years. The mechanism underlying this effect is unknown, but may act through fetal and/or early life programming of cerebrovascular disease. Future work to understand this vulnerability will inform strategies to reduce dementia and stroke. PMID:24558456

  8. Fatigue life prediction for wind turbines: A case study on loading spectra and parameter sensitivity

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, H.J.; Veers, P.S.; Ashwill, T.D.

    1992-01-01

    Wind turbines are fatigue-critical machines used to produce electrical energy from the wind. These rotating machines are subjected to environmental loadings that are highly irregular in nature. Historical examples of fatigue problems in both research and commercial wind turbine development are presented. Some example data on wind turbine environments, loadings and material properties are also shown. Before a description of how the authors have chosen to attack the cumulative damage assessment, questions are presented for the reader's reflection. The solution technique used by the authors is then presented, followed by a case study applying the procedures to an actual wind turbine blade joint. The wind turbine is the 34-meter diameter vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) erected by Sandia National Laboratories near Bushland, Texas. The case study examines parameter sensitivities for realistic uncertainties in inputs defining the turbine environment, stress response and material properties. The fatigue lifetimes are calculated using a fatigue analysis program, called LIFE2, which was developed at Sandia. The LIFE2 code, described in some detail in an appendix, is a PC-based, menu-driven package that leads the user through the steps required to characterize the loading and material properties, then uses Miner's rule or a linear crack propagation rule to numerically calculate the time to failure. Only S-n based cumulative damage applications are illustrated here. The LIFE2 code is available to educational institutions for use as a case study in describing complicated loading histories and for use by students in examining, hands on, parameter sensitivity of fatigue life analysis.

  9. Fatigue life prediction for wind turbines: A case study on loading spectra and parameter sensitivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutherland, H. J.; Veers, P. S.; Ashwill, T. D.

    Wind turbines are fatigue-critical machines used to produce electrical energy from the wind. These rotating machines are subjected to environmental loadings that are highly irregular in nature. Historical examples of fatigue problems in both research and commercial wind turbine development are presented. Some example data on wind turbine environments, loadings and material properties are also shown. Before a description of how the authors have chosen to attack the cumulative damage assessment, questions are presented for the reader's reflection. The solution technique used by the authors is then presented, followed by a case study applying the procedures to an actual wind turbine blade joint. The wind turbine is the 34-meter diameter vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) erected by Sandia National Laboratories near Bushland, Texas. The case study examines parameter sensitivities for realistic uncertainties in inputs defining the turbine environment, stress response and material properties. The fatigue lifetimes are calculated using a fatigue analysis program, called LIFE2, which was developed at Sandia. The LIFE2 code, described in some detail in an appendix, is a PC-based, menu-driven package that leads the user through the steps required to characterize the loading and material properties, then uses Miner's rule or a linear crack propagation rule to numerically calculate the time to failure. Only S-n based cumulative damage applications are illustrated here. The LIFE2 code is available to educational institutions for use as a case study in describing complicated loading histories and for use by students in examining, hands on, parameter sensitivity of fatigue life analysis.

  10. Learning impairments identified early in life are predictive of future impairments associated with aging

    PubMed Central

    Hullinger, Rikki; Burger, Corinna

    2016-01-01

    The Morris water maze (MWM) behavioral paradigm is commonly used to measure spatial learning and memory in rodents. It is widely accepted that performance in the MWM declines with age. However, young rats ubiquitously perform very well on established versions of the water maze, suggesting that more challenging tasks may be required to reveal subtle differences in young animals. Therefore, we have used a one-day water maze and novel object recognition to test whether more sensitive paradigms of memory in young animals could identify subtle cognitive impairments early in life that might become accentuated later with senescence. We have found that these two tasks reliably separate young rats into inferior and superior learners, are highly correlated, and that performance on these tasks early in life is predictive of performance at 12 months of age. Furthermore, we have found that repeated training in this task selectively improves the performance of inferior learners, suggesting that behavioral training from an early age may provide a buffer against age-related cognitive decline. PMID:26283528

  11. Cyclic fatigue damage characteristics observed for simple loadings extended to multiaxial life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, David J.; Kurath, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Fully reversed uniaxial strain controlled fatigue tests were performed on smooth cylindrical specimens made of 304 stainless steel. Fatigue life data and cracking observations for uniaxial tests were compared with life data and cracking behavior observed in fully reversed torsional tests. It was determined that the product of maximum principle strain amplitude and maximum principle stress provided the best correlation of fatigue lives for these two loading conditions. Implementation of this parameter is in agreement with observed physical damage and it accounts for the variation of stress-strain response, which is unique to specific loading conditions. Biaxial fatigue tests were conducted on tubular specimens employing both in-phase and out-of-phase tension torsion cyclic strain paths. Cracking observations indicated that the physical damage which occurred in the biaxial tests was similar to the damage observed in uniaxial and torsional tests. The Smith, Watson, and Topper parameter was then extended to predict the fatigue lives resulting from the more complex loading conditions.

  12. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

    1986-01-01

    This report presents the results of the first year of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and/or fatigue data, tests were conducted on coated and uncoated PWA 1480 specimens tensilely loaded in the 100 , 110 , 111 , and 123 directions. A literature survey of constitutive models was completed for both single crystal alloys and metallic coating materials; candidate models were selected. One constitutive model under consideration for single crystal alloys applies Walker's micromechanical viscoplastic formulation to all slip systems participating in the single crystal deformation. The constitutive models for the overlay coating correlate the viscoplastic data well. For the aluminide coating, a unique test method is under development. LCF and TMF tests are underway. The two coatings caused a significant drop in fatigue life, and each produced a much different failure mechanism.

  13. Development of a simplified procedure for rocket engine thrust chamber life prediction with creep

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badlani, M. L.; Porowski, J. S.; Odonnell, W. J.; Peterson, D. B.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical method for predicting engine thrust chamber life is developed. The method accounts for high pressure differentials and time-dependent creep effects both of which are significant in limiting the useful life of the shuttle main engine thrust chamber. The hot-gas-wall ligaments connecting adjacent cooling channels ribs and separating the coolant flow from the combustion gas are subjected to a high pressure induced primary stress superimposed on an alternating cyclic thermal strain field. The pressure load combined with strain-controlled cycling produces creep ratcheting and consequent bulging and thinning of these ligaments. This mechanism of creep-enhanced ratcheting is analyzed for determining the hot-gas-wall deformation and accumulated strain. Results are confirmed by inelastic finite element analysis. Fatigue and creep rupture damage as well as plastic tensile instability are evaluated as potential failure modes. It is demonstrated for the NARloy Z cases analyzed that when pressure differentials across the ligament are high, creep rupture damage is often the primary failure mode for the cycle times considered.

  14. Copula-based prediction of economic movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García, J. E.; González-López, V. A.; Hirsh, I. D.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we model the discretized returns of two paired time series BM&FBOVESPA Dividend Index and BM&FBOVESPA Public Utilities Index using multivariate Markov models. The discretization corresponds to three categories, high losses, high profits and the complementary periods of the series. In technical terms, the maximal memory that can be considered for a Markov model, can be derived from the size of the alphabet and dataset. The number of parameters needed to specify a discrete multivariate Markov chain grows exponentially with the order and dimension of the chain. In this case the size of the database is not large enough for a consistent estimation of the model. We apply a strategy to estimate a multivariate process with an order greater than the order achieved using standard procedures. The new strategy consist on obtaining a partition of the state space which is constructed from a combination, of the partitions corresponding to the two marginal processes and the partition corresponding to the multivariate Markov chain. In order to estimate the transition probabilities, all the partitions are linked using a copula. In our application this strategy provides a significant improvement in the movement predictions.

  15. A 3.5 year diary study: Remembering and life story importance are predicted by different event characteristics.

    PubMed

    Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard; Jensen, Thomas; Holm, Tine; Olesen, Martin Hammershøj; Schnieber, Anette; Tønnesvang, Jan

    2015-11-01

    Forty-five participants described and rated two events each week during their first term at university. After 3.5 years, we examined whether event characteristics rated in the diary predicted remembering, reliving, and life story importance at the follow-up. In addition, we examined whether ratings of life story importance were consistent across a three year interval. Approximately 60% of events were remembered, but only 20% of these were considered above medium importance to life stories. Higher unusualness, rehearsal, and planning predicted whether an event was remembered 3.5 years later. Higher goal-relevance, importance, emotional intensity, and planning predicted life story importance 3.5 years later. There was a moderate correlation between life story importance rated three months after the diary and rated at the 3.5 year follow-up. The results suggest that autobiographical memory and life stories are governed by different mechanisms and that life story memories are characterized by some degree of stability. PMID:26164104

  16. Quality and shelf-life prediction for retail fresh hake (Merluccius merluccius).

    PubMed

    García, Míriam R; Vilas, Carlos; Herrera, Juan R; Bernárdez, Marta; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Alonso, Antonio A

    2015-09-01

    Fish quality has a direct impact on market price and its accurate assessment and prediction are of main importance to set prices, increase competitiveness, resolve conflicts of interest and prevent food wastage due to conservative product shelf-life estimations. In this work we present a general methodology to derive predictive models of fish freshness under different storage conditions. The approach makes use of the theory of optimal experimental design, to maximize data information and in this way reduce the number of experiments. The resulting growth model for specific spoilage microorganisms in hake (Merluccius merluccius) is sufficiently informative to estimate quality sensory indexes under time-varying temperature profiles. In addition it incorporates quantitative information of the uncertainty induced by fish variability. The model has been employed to test the effect of factors such as fishing gear or evisceration, on fish spoilage and therefore fish quality. Results show no significant differences in terms of microbial growth between hake fished by long-line or bottom-set nets, within the implicit uncertainty of the model. Similar conclusions can be drawn for gutted and un-gutted hake along the experiment horizon. In addition, whenever there is the possibility to carry out the necessary experiments, this approach is sufficiently general to be used in other fish species and under different stress variables. PMID:26058006

  17. Prediction of creep life exhaustion in high energy piping system girth welds

    SciTech Connect

    Cohn, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    Conventional United States designs of high energy fossil power piping systems use the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) B31.1 Power Piping Code. Analytical methodology in the Code is based on thin shell linear elastic beam theory. The Code is developed to be used as a piping system design tool. It is inadequate as a tool to evaluate some in-service problems in high energy piping systems. Main steam and hot reheat piping system materials are usually subject to creep during normal operation. The process of time dependent material creep damage leads to accelerated rates of creep cavitation and life consumption. This effect results in the redistribution of high thermal stresses and material property degradation in service. There are no guidelines in the Code to address life consumption or in-service degradation issues. A methodology is presented which considers an approach to evaluate the time dependent life consumption in high energy piping systems. This approach is applied in a case study to reconcile stresses which significantly exceed the Code stress allowable. The paper also includes an approach to select highest creep damage locations for nondestructive examination (NDE).

  18. The myth of science-based predictive modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, F. M.

    2004-01-01

    A key aspect of science-based predictive modeling is the assessment of prediction credibility. This publication argues that the credibility of a family of models and their predictions must combine three components: (1) the fidelity of predictions to test data; (2) the robustness of predictions to variability, uncertainty, and lack-of-knowledge; and (3) the prediction accuracy of models in cases where measurements are not available. Unfortunately, these three objectives are antagonistic. A recently published Theorem that demonstrates the irrevocable trade-offs between fidelity-to-data, robustness-to-uncertainty, and confidence in prediction is summarized. High-fidelity models cannot be made increasingly robust to uncertainty and lack-of-knowledge. Similarly, robustness-to-uncertainty can only be improved at the cost of reducing the confidence in prediction. The concept of confidence in prediction relies on a metric for total uncertainty, capable of aggregating different representations of uncertainty (probabilistic or not). The discussion is illustrated with an engineering application where a family of models is developed to predict the acceleration levels obtained when impacts of varying levels propagate through layers of crushable hyper-foam material of varying thicknesses. Convex modeling is invoked to represent a severe lack-of-knowledge about the constitutive material behavior. The analysis produces intervals of performance metrics from which the total uncertainty and confidence levels are estimated. Finally, performance, robustness and confidence are extrapolated throughout the validation domain to assess the predictive power of the family of models away from tested configurations.

  19. Using intron position conservation for homology-based gene prediction

    PubMed Central

    Keilwagen, Jens; Wenk, Michael; Erickson, Jessica L.; Schattat, Martin H.; Grau, Jan; Hartung, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of protein-coding genes is very important in bioinformatics and biology and has a decisive influence on many downstream analyses. Homology-based gene prediction programs allow for transferring knowledge about protein-coding genes from an annotated organism to an organism of interest. Here, we present a homology-based gene prediction program called GeMoMa. GeMoMa utilizes the conservation of intron positions within genes to predict related genes in other organisms. We assess the performance of GeMoMa and compare it with state-of-the-art competitors on plant and animal genomes using an extended best reciprocal hit approach. We find that GeMoMa often makes more precise predictions than its competitors yielding a substantially increased number of correct transcripts. Subsequently, we exemplarily validate GeMoMa predictions using Sanger sequencing. Finally, we use RNA-seq data to compare the predictions of homology-based gene prediction programs, and find again that GeMoMa performs well. Hence, we conclude that exploiting intron position conservation improves homology-based gene prediction, and we make GeMoMa freely available as command-line tool and Galaxy integration. PMID:26893356

  20. Using intron position conservation for homology-based gene prediction.

    PubMed

    Keilwagen, Jens; Wenk, Michael; Erickson, Jessica L; Schattat, Martin H; Grau, Jan; Hartung, Frank

    2016-05-19

    Annotation of protein-coding genes is very important in bioinformatics and biology and has a decisive influence on many downstream analyses. Homology-based gene prediction programs allow for transferring knowledge about protein-coding genes from an annotated organism to an organism of interest.Here, we present a homology-based gene prediction program called GeMoMa. GeMoMa utilizes the conservation of intron positions within genes to predict related genes in other organisms. We assess the performance of GeMoMa and compare it with state-of-the-art competitors on plant and animal genomes using an extended best reciprocal hit approach. We find that GeMoMa often makes more precise predictions than its competitors yielding a substantially increased number of correct transcripts. Subsequently, we exemplarily validate GeMoMa predictions using Sanger sequencing. Finally, we use RNA-seq data to compare the predictions of homology-based gene prediction programs, and find again that GeMoMa performs well.Hence, we conclude that exploiting intron position conservation improves homology-based gene prediction, and we make GeMoMa freely available as command-line tool and Galaxy integration. PMID:26893356

  1. Evaluating the real-world predictive validity of the Body Image Quality of Life Inventory using Ecological Momentary Assessment.

    PubMed

    Heron, Kristin E; Mason, Tyler B; Sutton, Tiphanie G; Myers, Taryn A

    2015-09-01

    Perceptions of physical appearance, or body image, can affect psychosocial functioning and quality of life (QOL). The present study evaluated the real-world predictive validity of the Body Image Quality of Life Inventory (BIQLI) using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA). College women reporting subclinical disordered eating/body dissatisfaction (N=131) completed the BIQLI and related measures. For one week they then completed five daily EMA surveys of mood, social interactions, stress, and eating behaviors on palmtop computers. Results showed better body image QOL was associated with less negative affect, less overwhelming emotions, more positive affect, more pleasant social interactions, and higher self-efficacy for handling stress. Lower body image QOL was marginally related to less overeating and lower loss of control over eating in daily life. To our knowledge, this is the first study to support the real-world predictive validity of the BIQLI by identifying social, affective, and behavioral correlates in everyday life using EMA. PMID:26302376

  2. Fatigue life estimation for different notched specimens based on the volumetric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zehsaz, M.; Hassanifard, S.; Esmaeili, F.

    2010-06-01

    In this paper, the effects of notch radius for different notched specimens has been studied on the values of stress concentration factor, notch strength reduction factor, and fatigue life duration of the specimens. The material which has been selected for this investigation is Al 2024T3 . Volumetric approach has been applied to obtain the values of notch strength reduction factor and results have been compared with those obtained from the Neuber and Peterson methods. Load controlled fatigue tests of mentioned specimens have been conducted on the 250kN servo-hydraulic Zwick/Amsler fatigue testing machine with the frequency of 10Hz. The fatigue lives of the specimens have also been predicted based on the available smooth S-N curve of Al2024-T3 and also the amounts of notch strength reduction factor which have been obtained from volumetric, Neuber and Peterson methods. The values of stress and strain around the notch roots are required to predict the fatigue life of notched specimens, so Ansys finite element code has been used and non-linear analyses have been performed to obtain the stress and strain distributions around the notches. The plastic deformations of the material have been simulated using multi-linear kinematic hardening and cyclic stress-strain relation. The work here shows that the volumetric approach does a very good job for predicting the fatigue life of the notched specimens.

  3. FEA Based Tool Life Quantity Estimation of Hot Forging Dies Under Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behrens, B.-A.; Bouguecha, A.; Schäfer, F.; Hadifi, T.

    2011-01-01

    Hot forging dies are exposed during service to a combination of cyclic thermo-mechanical, tribological and chemical loads. Besides abrasive and adhesive wear on the die surface, fatigue crack initiation with subsequent fracture is one of the most frequent causes of failure. In order to extend the tool life, the finite element analysis (FEA) may serve as a means for process design and process optimisation. So far the FEA based estimation of the production cycles until initial cracking is limited as tool material behaviour due to repeated loading is not captured with the required accuracy. Material models which are able to account for cyclic effects are not verified for the fatigue life predictions of forging dies. Furthermore fatigue properties from strain controlled fatigue tests of relevant hot work steels are to date not available to allow for a close-to-reality fatigue life prediction. Two industrial forging processes, where clear fatigue crack initiation has been observed are considered for a fatigue analysis. For this purpose the relevant tool components are modelled with elasto-plastic material behaviour. The predicted sites, where crack initiation occurs, agree with the ones observed on the real die component.

  4. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    MedlinePlus

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  5. Bioregenerative life support system for a lunar base

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, H.; Wang, J.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Kovalev, V. S.; Gurevich, Yu. L.

    We have studied a modular approach to construction of bioregenerative life support system BLSS for a lunar base using soil-like substrate SLS for plant cultivation Calculations of massflow rates in BLSS were based mostly on a vegetarian diet and biological conversion of plant residues in SLS Plant candidate list for lunar BLSS includes the following basic species rice Oryza sativa soy Glycine max sweet potato Ipomoea batatas and wheat Triticum aestivum To reduce the time necessary for transition of the system to steady state we suggest that the first seeding and sprouting could be made on Earth

  6. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  7. Protein Microarrays-Based Strategies for Life Detection in Astrobiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parro, Víctor; Rivas, Luis A.; Gómez-Elvira, Javier

    2008-03-01

    The detection of organic molecules of unambiguous biological origin is fundamental for the confirmation of present or past life. Planetary exploration requires the development of miniaturized apparatus for in situ life detection. Analytical techniques based on mass spectrometry have been traditionally used in space science. Following the Viking landers, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) for organic detection has gained general acceptance and has been used successfully in the Cassini-Huygens mission to Titan. Microfluidics allows the development of miniaturized capillary electrophoresis devices for the detection of important molecules for life, like amino acids or nucleobases. Recently, a new approach is gaining acceptance in the space science community: the application of the well-known, highly specific, antibody-antigen affinity interaction for the detection and identification of organics and biochemical compounds. Antibodies can specifically bind a plethora of structurally different compounds of a broad range of molecular sizes, from amino acids level to whole cells. Antibody microarray technology allows us to look for the presence of thousands of different compounds in a single assay and in just one square centimeter. Herein, we discuss several important issues—most of which are common with other instruments dealing with life signature detection in the solar system—that must be addressed in order to use antibody microarrays for life detection and planetary exploration. These issues include (1) preservation of biomarkers, (2) the extraction techniques for biomarkers, (3) terrestrial analogues, (4) the antibody stability under space environments, (5) the selection of unequivocal biomarkers for the antibody production, or (6) the instrument design and implementation.

  8. Protein Microarrays-Based Strategies for Life Detection in Astrobiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parro, Víctor; Rivas, Luis A.; Gómez-Elvira, Javier

    The detection of organic molecules of unambiguous biological origin is fundamental for the confirmation of present or past life. Planetary exploration requires the development of miniaturized apparatus for in situ life detection. Analytical techniques based on mass spectrometry have been traditionally used in space science. Following the Viking landers, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) for organic detection has gained general acceptance and has been used successfully in the Cassini-Huygens mission to Titan. Microfluidics allows the development of miniaturized capillary electrophoresis devices for the detection of important molecules for life, like amino acids or nucleobases. Recently, a new approach is gaining acceptance in the space science community: the application of the well-known, highly specific, antibody-antigen affinity interaction for the detection and identification of organics and biochemical compounds. Antibodies can specifically bind a plethora of structurally different compounds of a broad range of molecular sizes, from amino acids level to whole cells. Antibody microarray technology allows us to look for the presence of thousands of different compounds in a single assay and in just one square centimeter. Herein, we discuss several important issues—most of which are common with other instruments dealing with life signature detection in the solar system—that must be addressed in order to use antibody microarrays for life detection and planetary exploration. These issues include (1) preservation of biomarkers, (2) the extraction techniques for biomarkers, (3) terrestrial analogues, (4) the antibody stability under space environments, (5) the selection of unequivocal biomarkers for the antibody production, or (6) the instrument design and implementation.

  9. Temperature- and CO2-dependent life table parameters of Spodoptera litura (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) on sunflower and prediction of pest scenarios.

    PubMed

    Manimanjari, D; Srinivasa Rao, M; Swathi, P; Rama Rao, C A; Vanaja, M; Maheswari, M

    2014-01-01

    Predicted increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration will influence the growth of crop plants and phytophagous insects. The present study, conducted at the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India, aimed at (1) construction of life tables at six constant temperatures viz., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33, and 35 ± 0.5 °C for Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) reared on sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) grown under ambient and elevated CO2 (eCO2) (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers and (2) prediction of the pest status in near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change scenarios at major sunflower growing locations of India. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in sunflower foliage grown under eCO2 over ambient. Feeding trials conducted on sunflower foliage obtained from two CO2 conditions showed that the developmental time of S. litura (Egg to adult) declined with increase in temperature and was more evident at eCO2. Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase (r(m)), net reproductive rate (Ro), mean generation time, (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura increased significantly with temperature up to 27-30 °C and declined with further increase in temperature. Reduction of 'T' was observed from maximum value of 58 d at 20 °C to minimum of 24.9 d at 35 °C. The DT of population was higher (5.88 d) at 20 °C and lower (3.05 d) at 30 °C temperature of eCO2. The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two nonlinear models were developed separately for each of the CO2 conditions for predicting the pest scenarios. The NF and DF scenarios temperature data of four sunflower growing locations in India is based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario. It was predicted that increased 'rm', 'λ', and 'Ro' and reduced 'T' would occur during NF and DF scenario over present period at all

  10. New methodology for shaft design based on life expectancy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loewenthal, S. H.

    1986-01-01

    The design of power transmission shafting for reliability has not historically received a great deal of attention. However, weight sensitive aerospace and vehicle applications and those where the penalties of shaft failure are great, require greater confidence in shaft design than earlier methods provided. This report summarizes a fatigue strength-based, design method for sizing shafts under variable amplitude loading histories for limited or nonlimited service life. Moreover, applications factors such as press-fitted collars, shaft size, residual stresses from shot peening or plating, corrosive environments can be readily accommodated into the framework of the analysis. Examples are given which illustrate the use of the method, pointing out the large life penalties due to occasional cyclic overloads.

  11. Conceptual designs for lunar base life support systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dall-Bauman, Liese; Edeen, Marybeth; Brown, Mariann

    1991-01-01

    Three designs for lunar-base life support are described emphasizing the choices of individual processes for initial, intermediate, and advanced systems. Mass balances for the systems are employed to demonstrate the interactions of air, water, and waste loops, and several waste-treatment processes are considered for the initial life-support system. NASA space-station technologies are adopted for the start-up air, water, and waste treatment subsystems, and the intermediate subsystems provide enhanced capabilities. The intermediate waste-management subsystem permits the recovery of reusable waste, and the advanced system provides biological waste treatment. The reduction of resupply requirements and power use are identified as critical issues as is the ability to operate over extended periods.

  12. A model for a knowledge-based system's life cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiss, Peter A.

    1990-01-01

    The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has initiated a Committee on Standards for Artificial Intelligence. Presented here are the initial efforts of one of the working groups of that committee. The purpose here is to present a candidate model for the development life cycle of Knowledge Based Systems (KBS). The intent is for the model to be used by the Aerospace Community and eventually be evolved into a standard. The model is rooted in the evolutionary model, borrows from the spiral model, and is embedded in the standard Waterfall model for software development. Its intent is to satisfy the development of both stand-alone and embedded KBSs. The phases of the life cycle are detailed as are and the review points that constitute the key milestones throughout the development process. The applicability and strengths of the model are discussed along with areas needing further development and refinement by the aerospace community.

  13. Appreciation and Life Satisfaction: Does Appreciation Uniquely Predict Life Satisfaction above Gender, Coping Skills, Self-Esteem, and Positive Affectivity?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halle, Joshua Solomon

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this research was to examine whether appreciation explains variance in life satisfaction after controlling for gender, positive affectivity, self-esteem, and coping skills. Two hundred ninety-eight undergraduates went to the informed consent page of the online survey composed of the Appreciation Scale, the Satisfaction With…

  14. Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

    2015-01-01

    Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

  15. Thermal cycling life prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu solder joint using type-I censored data.

    PubMed

    Mi, Jinhua; Li, Yan-Feng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2014-01-01

    Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA) and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA) interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products. PMID:25121138

  16. Thermal Cycling Life Prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Using Type-I Censored Data

    PubMed Central

    Mi, Jinhua; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2014-01-01

    Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA) and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA) interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products. PMID:25121138

  17. Electrical Resistance of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites for Damage Detection and Life-Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Craig; Morscher, Gregory; Xia, Zhenhai

    2009-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are suitable for high temperature structural applications such as turbine airfoils and hypersonic thermal protection systems due to their low density high thermal conductivity. The employment of these materials in such applications is limited by the ability to accurately monitor and predict damage evolution. Current nondestructive methods such as ultrasound, x-ray, and thermal imaging are limited in their ability to quantify small scale, transverse, in-plane, matrix cracks developed over long-time creep and fatigue conditions. CMC is a multifunctional material in which the damage is coupled with the material s electrical resistance, providing the possibility of real-time information about the damage state through monitoring of resistance. Here, resistance measurement of SiC/SiC composites under mechanical load at both room temperature monotonic and high temperature creep conditions, coupled with a modal acoustic emission technique, can relate the effects of temperature, strain, matrix cracks, fiber breaks, and oxidation to the change in electrical resistance. A multiscale model can in turn be developed for life prediction of in-service composites, based on electrical resistance methods. Results of tensile mechanical testing of SiC/SiC composites at room and high temperatures will be discussed. Data relating electrical resistivity to composite constituent content, fiber architecture, temperature, matrix crack formation, and oxidation will be explained, along with progress in modeling such properties.

  18. Report on three Genomes to Life Workshops: Data Infrastructure, Modeling and Simulation, and Protein Structure Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Geist, GA

    2003-09-16

    On July 22, 23, 24, 2003, three one day workshops were held in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Each was attended by about 30 computational biologists, mathematicians, and computer scientists who were experts in the respective workshop areas The first workshop discussed the data infrastructure needs for the Genomes to Life (GTL) program with the objective to identify gaps in the present GTL data infrastructure and define the GTL data infrastructure required for the success of the proposed GTL facilities. The second workshop discussed the modeling and simulation needs for the next phase of the GTL program and defined how these relate to the experimental data generated by genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics. The third workshop identified emerging technical challenges in computational protein structure prediction for DOE missions and outlining specific goals for the next phase of GTL. The workshops were attended by representatives from both OBER and OASCR. The invited experts at each of the workshops made short presentations on what they perceived as the key needs in the GTL data infrastructure, modeling and simulation, and structure prediction respectively. Each presentation was followed by a lively discussion by all the workshop attendees. The following findings and recommendations were derived from the three workshops. A seamless integration of GTL data spanning the entire range of genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics will be extremely challenging but it has to be treated as the first-class component of the GTL program to assure GTL's chances for success. High-throughput GTL facilities and ultrascale computing will make it possible to address the ultimate goal of modern biology: to achieve a fundamental, comprehensive, and systematic understanding of life. But first the GTL community needs to address the problem of the massive quantities and increased complexity of biological data produced by experiments and computations. Genome-scale collection, analysis

  19. A new method of accelerated life testing based on the Grey System Theory for a model-based lithium-ion battery life evaluation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Weijun; Sun, Zechang; Wei, Xuezhe; Dai, Haifeng

    2014-12-01

    The lack of data samples is the main difficulty for the lifetime study of a lithium-ion battery, especially for a model-based evaluation system. To determine the mapping relationship between the battery fading law and the different external factors, the testing of batteries should be implemented to the greatest extent possible. As a result, performing a battery lifetime study has become a notably time-consuming undertaking. Without reducing the number of testing items pre-specified within the test matrices of an accelerated life testing schedule, a grey model that can be used to predict the cycle numbers that result in the specific life ending index is established in this paper. No aging mechanism is required for this model, which is exclusively a data-driven method obtained from a small quantity of actual testing data. For higher accuracy, a specific smoothing method is introduced, and the error between the predicted value and the actual value is also modeled using the same method. By the verification of a phosphate iron lithium-ion battery and a manganese oxide lithium-ion battery, this grey model demonstrated its ability to reduce the required number of cycles for the operational mode of various electric vehicles.

  20. A Human Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model for Chlorpyrifos: Development and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Jordan N.; Hinderliter, Paul M.; Timchalk, Charles; Bartels, M. J.; Poet, Torka S.

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity to chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to computationally predict disposition of CPF and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, age-dependent body weight was calculated from a generalized Gompertz function, and compartments (liver, brain, fat, blood, diaphragm, rapid, and slow) were scaled based on body weight from polynomial functions on a fractional body weight basis. Blood flows among compartments were calculated as a constant flow per compartment volume. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Model simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ≥ 0.55 mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (significantly higher than environmental exposure levels), 6 mo old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent oral doses of chlorpyrifos. At lower doses that are more relevant to environmental exposures, the model predicts that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict CPF disposition and biological response over various postnatal life-stages.

  1. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. [LMFBR

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed.

  2. Reliability-Based Life Assessment of Stirling Convertor Heater Head

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Halford, Gary R.; Korovaichuk, Igor

    2004-01-01

    Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA's deep-space missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures, stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. A preliminary assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the material behavior was also performed. Creep failure resistance of the thin-walled heater head could show variation due to small deviations in the manufactured thickness and in uncertainties in operating temperature and pressure. Durability prediction and reliability of the heater head are affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to include the effects of these uncertainties in predicting the probability of survival of the heater head under mission loads. Furthermore, it may be possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of small temperature excursions of short duration. These rare incidences would affect the creep strain rate and, therefore, the life. This paper addresses the effects of such rare incidences on the reliability. In addition, the sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified, and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Heater head reliability is being quantified with data from NASA Glenn Research Center's accelerated benchmark testing program.

  3. Do Early-Life Conditions Predict Functional Health Status in Adulthood? The Case of Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Cheng; Soldo, Beth J; Elo, Irma T

    2010-01-01

    Relatively few researchers have investigated early antecedents of adult functional limitations in developing countries. In this study, we assessed associations between childhood conditions and adult lower-body functional limitations (LBFL) as well as the potential mediating role of adult socioeconomic status, smoking, body mass index, and chronic diseases or symptoms. Based on data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) of individuals born prior to 1951 and contacted in 2001 and 2003, we found that childhood nutritional deprivation, serious health problems, and family background predict adult LBFL in Mexico. Adjustment for the potential mediators in adulthood attenuates these associations only to a modest degree. PMID:21074924

  4. Rumination predicts heightened responding to stressful life events in major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder.

    PubMed

    Ruscio, Ayelet Meron; Gentes, Emily L; Jones, Jason D; Hallion, Lauren S; Coleman, Elizabeth S; Swendsen, Joel

    2015-02-01

    Although studies have documented heightened stress sensitivity in major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. One possible mechanism is the tendency to ruminate in response to stress. We used ecological momentary assessment to study ruminative thoughts after stressful events in 145 adults with MDD, GAD, comorbid MDD-GAD, or no psychopathology. Diagnosed individuals reported more event-related rumination than controls, even after adjusting for event stressfulness. Rumination was equally common in MDD and GAD and was especially severe among comorbid cases. More rumination immediately after the event predicted poorer affect, more maladaptive behavior, and more MDD and GAD symptoms at the next signal, even when pre-event levels of these variables were controlled. Rumination mediated, but did not moderate, the association of stress with affect and with symptoms. Stress-related rumination was more deleterious for diagnosed than healthy individuals, more intense for more severe clinical cases, and more persistent for cases with a greater temperamental vulnerability for emotional disorders. These results implicate rumination as a mechanism of stress sensitivity and suggest pathways through which it may maintain depression and anxiety in everyday life. PMID:25688429

  5. Rumination Predicts Heightened Responding to Stressful Life Events in Major Depressive Disorder and Generalized Anxiety Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Ruscio, Ayelet Meron; Gentes, Emily L.; Jones, Jason D.; Hallion, Lauren S.; Coleman, Elizabeth S.; Swendsen, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Although studies have documented heightened stress sensitivity in major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. One possible mechanism is the tendency to ruminate in response to stress. We used ecological momentary assessment to study ruminative thoughts following stressful events in 145 adults with MDD, GAD, comorbid MDD-GAD, or no psychopathology. Diagnosed individuals reported more event-related rumination than controls, even after adjusting for event stressfulness. Rumination was equally common in MDD and GAD and was especially severe among comorbid cases. More rumination immediately after the event predicted poorer affect, more maladaptive behavior, and more MDD and GAD symptoms at the next signal, even when pre-event levels of these variables were controlled. Rumination mediated, but did not moderate, the association of stress with affect and with symptoms. Stress-related rumination was more deleterious for diagnosed than healthy individuals, more intense for more severe clinical cases, and more persistent for cases with a greater temperamental vulnerability for emotional disorders. These results implicate rumination as a mechanism of stress sensitivity and suggest pathways through which it may maintain depression and anxiety in everyday life. PMID:25688429

  6. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    PubMed

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands. PMID:25844577

  7. Modeling, design, and life performance prediction for energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Swenson, D.

    1998-01-01

    System modeling supports the design and long-term, commercially successful operation of geothermal reservoirs. Modeling guides in the placement of the injection and production wells, in the stimulation of the reservoir, and in the operational strategies used to ensure continuing production. Without an understanding of the reservoir, it is possible to harm the reservoir by inappropriate operation (especially break-through of cold injection fluid) and the desired profitable lifetimes will not be reached. In this project the authors have continued to develop models for predicting the life of geothermal reservoirs. One of the goals has been to maintain and transfer existing Hot Dry Rock two-dimensional fractured reservoir analysis capability to the geothermal industry and to begin the extension of the analysis concepts to three dimensions. Primary focus has been on interaction with industry, maintenance of Geocrack2D, and development of the Geocrack3D model. It is important to emphasize that the modeling is complementary to current industry modeling, in that they focus on flow in fractured rock and on the coupled effect of thermal cooling. In the following sections the authors document activities as part of this research project: industry interaction; national and international collaboration; and model development.

  8. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future†

    PubMed Central

    Schrodi, Steven J.; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J.; Callear, Amy P.; Carter, Tonia C.; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L.; Brilliant, Murray H.; Crane, Paul K.; Smelser, Diane T.; Elston, Robert C.; Weeks, Daniel E.

    2014-01-01

    Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications. PMID:24917882

  9. A criterion for high-cycle fatigue life and fatigue limit prediction in biaxial loading conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pejkowski, Łukasz; Skibicki, Dariusz

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a criterion for high-cycle fatigue life and fatigue strength estimation under periodic proportional and non-proportional cyclic loading. The criterion is based on the mean and maximum values of the second invariant of the stress deviator. Important elements of the criterion are: function of the non-proportionality of fatigue loading and the materials parameter that expresses the materials sensitivity to non-proportional loading. The methods for the materials parameters determination uses three S-N curves: tension-compression, torsion, and any non-proportional loading proposed. The criterion has been verified using experimental data, and the results are included in the paper. These results should be considered as promising. The paper also includes a proposal for multiaxial fatigue models classification due to the approach for the non-proportionality of loading.

  10. Thrust chamber life prediction. Volume 1: Mechanical and physical properties of high performance rocket nozzle materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Esposito, J. J.; Zabora, R. F.

    1975-01-01

    Pertinent mechanical and physical properties of six high conductivity metals were determined. The metals included Amzirc, NARloy Z, oxygen free pure copper, electroformed copper, fine silver, and electroformed nickel. Selection of these materials was based on their possible use in high performance reusable rocket nozzles. The typical room temperature properties determined for each material included tensile ultimate strength, tensile yield strength, elongation, reduction of area, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio, density, specific heat, thermal conductivity, and coefficient of thermal expansion. Typical static tensile stress-strain curves, cyclic stress-strain curves, and low-cycle fatigue life curves are shown. Properties versus temperature are presented in graphical form for temperatures from 27.6K (-410 F) to 810.9K (1000 F).

  11. The Best Years of Our Lives? Coping with Stress Predicts School Grades, Life Satisfaction, and Feelings about High School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacCann, Carolyn; Lipnevich, Anastasiya A.; Burrus, Jeremy; Roberts, Richard D.

    2012-01-01

    This study examines whether problem-focused, emotion-focused, and avoidant coping strategies predict key outcomes in a sample of 354 high school students. The four outcomes considered are: academic achievement, life satisfaction, positive feelings towards school, and negative feelings towards school. Results demonstrate that coping incrementally…

  12. Lack of extrapyramidal side effects predicts quality of life in outpatients treated with clozapine or with typical antipsychotics.

    PubMed

    Strejilevich, Sergio A; Palatnik, Ana; Avila, Rubén; Bustin, Julián; Cassone, Julieta; Figueroa, Soledad; Gimenez, Mariana; de Erausquin, Gabriel A

    2005-02-28

    We compared symptom severity and quality of life (QOL) in schizophrenic patients adequately treated with typical antipsychotics (TAP) or clozapine (CZP). Groups did not differ in symptom severity or QOL. Clozapine caused fewer extrapyramidal symptoms. Negative and extrapyramidal symptoms predicted QOL. Similar outcome in both groups suggests a common ceiling to antipsychotic efficacy. PMID:15741003

  13. Hidden link prediction based on node centrality and weak ties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Haifeng; Hu, Zheng; Haddadi, Hamed; Tian, Hui

    2013-01-01

    Link prediction has been widely used to extract missing information, identify spurious interactions, evaluate network evolving mechanisms, and so on. In this context, similarity-based algorithms have become the mainstream. However, most of them take into account the contributions of each common neighbor equally to the connection likelihood of two nodes. This paper proposes a model for link prediction, which is based on the node centrality of common neighbors. Three node centralities are discussed: degree, closeness and betweenness centrality. In our model, each common neighbor plays a different role to the node connection likelihood according to their centralities. Moreover, the weak-tie theory is considered for improving the prediction accuracy. Finally, extensive experiments on five real-world networks show that the proposed model can outperform the Common Neighbor (CN) algorithm and gives competitively good prediction of or even better than Adamic-Adar (AA) index and Resource Allocation (RA) index.

  14. The Cumulative Impact of Nonsevere Life Events Predicts Depression Recurrence during Maintenance Treatment with Interpersonal Psychotherapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenze, Shannon N.; Cyranowski, Jill M.; Thompson, Wesley K.; Anderson, Barbara; Frank, Ellen

    2008-01-01

    Although much research has focused on the role of severe life events as risk factors for depression onset, less is known about the relationship between nonsevere life events and depression recurrence. The current study examined the cumulative effects of nonsevere and positive life events on depression recurrence in an outpatient sample of…

  15. Prediction of microbial phenotypes based on comparative genomics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The accessibility of almost complete genome sequences of uncultivable microbial species from metagenomes necessitates computational methods predicting microbial phenotypes solely based on genomic data. Here we investigate how comparative genomics can be utilized for the prediction of microbial phenotypes. The PICA framework facilitates application and comparison of different machine learning techniques for phenotypic trait prediction. We have improved and extended PICA's support vector machine plug-in and suggest its applicability to large-scale genome databases and incomplete genome sequences. We have demonstrated the stability of the predictive power for phenotypic traits, not perturbed by the rapid growth of genome databases. A new software tool facilitates the in-depth analysis of phenotype models, which associate expected and unexpected protein functions with particular traits. Most of the traits can be reliably predicted in only 60-70% complete genomes. We have established a new phenotypic model that predicts intracellular microorganisms. Thereby we could demonstrate that also independently evolved phenotypic traits, characterized by genome reduction, can be reliably predicted based on comparative genomics. Our results suggest that the extended PICA framework can be used to automatically annotate phenotypes in near-complete microbial genome sequences, as generated in large numbers in current metagenomics studies. PMID:26451672

  16. Propagating uncertainties in statistical model based shape prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Syrkina, Ekaterina; Blanc, Rémi; Székely, Gàbor

    2011-03-01

    This paper addresses the question of accuracy assessment and confidence regions estimation in statistical model based shape prediction. Shape prediction consists in estimating the shape of an organ based on a partial observation, due e.g. to a limited field of view or poorly contrasted images, and generally requires a statistical model. However, such predictions can be impaired by several sources of uncertainty, in particular the presence of noise in the observation, limited correlations between the predictors and the shape to predict, as well as limitations of the statistical shape model - in particular the number of training samples. We propose a framework which takes these into account and derives confidence regions around the predicted shape. Our method relies on the construction of two separate statistical shape models, for the predictors and for the unseen parts, and exploits the correlations between them assuming a joint Gaussian distribution. Limitations of the models are taken into account by jointly optimizing the prediction and minimizing the shape reconstruction error through cross-validation. An application to the prediction of the shape of the proximal part of the human tibia given the shape of the distal femur is proposed, as well as the evaluation of the reliability of the estimated confidence regions, using a database of 184 samples. Potential applications are reconstructive surgery, e.g. to assess whether an implant fits in a range of acceptable shapes, or functional neurosurgery when the target's position is not directly visible and needs to be inferred from nearby visible structures.

  17. OPTIMIZATION BIAS IN ENERGY-BASED STRUCTURE PREDICTION

    PubMed Central

    Petrella, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    Physics-based computational approaches to predicting the structure of macromolecules such as proteins are gaining increased use, but there are remaining challenges. In the current work, it is demonstrated that in energy-based prediction methods, the degree of optimization of the sampled structures can influence the prediction results. In particular, discrepancies in the degree of local sampling can bias the predictions in favor of the oversampled structures by shifting the local probability distributions of the minimum sampled energies. In simple systems, it is shown that the magnitude of the errors can be calculated from the energy surface, and for certain model systems, derived analytically. Further, it is shown that for energy wells whose forms differ only by a randomly assigned energy shift, the optimal accuracy of prediction is achieved when the sampling around each structure is equal. Energy correction terms can be used in cases of unequal sampling to reproduce the total probabilities that would occur under equal sampling, but optimal corrections only partially restore the prediction accuracy lost to unequal sampling. For multiwell systems, the determination of the correction terms is a multibody problem; it is shown that the involved cross-correlation multiple integrals can be reduced to simpler integrals. The possible implications of the current analysis for macromolecular structure prediction are discussed. PMID:25552783

  18. Environment enhanced fatigue crack propagation in metals: Inputs to fracture mechanics life prediction models. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Gangloff, R.P.; Kim, S.

    1993-09-01

    This report is a critical review of both environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation data and the predictive capabilities of crack growth rate models. This information provides the necessary foundation for incorporating environmental effects in NASA FLAGRO and will better enable predictions of aerospace component fatigue lives. The review presents extensive literature data on stress corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue.' The linear elastic fracture mechanics approach, based on stress intensity range (Delta(K)) similitude with microscopic crack propagation threshold and growth rates, provides a basis for these data. Results are presented showing enhanced growth rates for gases (viz., H2 and H2O) and electrolytes (e.g. NaCl and H2O) in aerospace alloys including: C-Mn and heat treated alloy steels, aluminum alloys, nickel-based superalloys, and titanium alloys. Environment causes purely time-dependent accelerated fatigue crack growth above the monotonic load cracking threshold (KIEAC) and promotes cycle-time dependent cracking below (KIEAC). These phenomenon are discussed in terms of hydrogen embrittlement, dissolution, and film rupture crack tip damage mechanisms.

  19. Environment enhanced fatigue crack propagation in metals: Inputs to fracture mechanics life prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gangloff, Richard P.; Kim, Sang-Shik

    1993-01-01

    This report is a critical review of both environment-enhanced fatigue crack propagation data and the predictive capabilities of crack growth rate models. This information provides the necessary foundation for incorporating environmental effects in NASA FLAGRO and will better enable predictions of aerospace component fatigue lives. The review presents extensive literature data on 'stress corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue.' The linear elastic fracture mechanics approach, based on stress intensity range (Delta(K)) similitude with microscopic crack propagation threshold and growth rates, provides a basis for these data. Results are presented showing enhanced growth rates for gases (viz., H2 and H2O) and electrolytes (e.g. NaCl and H2O) in aerospace alloys including: C-Mn and heat treated alloy steels, aluminum alloys, nickel-based superalloys, and titanium alloys. Environment causes purely time-dependent accelerated fatigue crack growth above the monotonic load cracking threshold (KIEAC) and promotes cycle-time dependent cracking below (KIEAC). These phenomenon are discussed in terms of hydrogen embrittlement, dissolution, and film rupture crack tip damage mechanisms.

  20. Cloud Based Metalearning System for Predictive Modeling of Biomedical Data

    PubMed Central

    Vukićević, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Rapid growth and storage of biomedical data enabled many opportunities for predictive modeling and improvement of healthcare processes. On the other side analysis of such large amounts of data is a difficult and computationally intensive task for most existing data mining algorithms. This problem is addressed by proposing a cloud based system that integrates metalearning framework for ranking and selection of best predictive algorithms for data at hand and open source big data technologies for analysis of biomedical data. PMID:24892101

  1. An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

  2. Belief-based action prediction in preverbal infants.

    PubMed

    Southgate, Victoria; Vernetti, Angelina

    2014-01-01

    Successful mindreading entails both the ability to think about what others know or believe, and to use this knowledge to generate predictions about how mental states will influence behavior. While previous studies have demonstrated that young infants are sensitive to others' mental states, there continues to be much debate concerning how to characterize early theory of mind abilities. In the current study, we asked whether 6-month-old infants appreciate the causal role that beliefs play in action. Specifically, we tested whether infants generate action predictions that are appropriate given an agent's current belief. We exploited a novel, neural indication of action prediction: motor cortex activation as measured by sensorimotor alpha suppression, to ask whether infants would generate differential predictions depending on an agent's belief. After first verifying our paradigm and measure with a group of adult participants, we found that when an agent had a false belief that a ball was in the box, motor activity indicated that infants predicted she would reach for the box, but when the agent had a false belief that a ball was not in the box, infants did not predict that she would act. In both cases, infants based their predictions on what the agent, rather than the infant, believed to be the case, suggesting that by 6months of age, infants can exploit their sensitivity to other minds for action prediction. PMID:24140991

  3. CRAFFT: An Activity Prediction Model based on Bayesian Networks

    PubMed Central

    Nazerfard, Ehsan; Cook, Diane J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in the areas of pervasive computing, data mining, and machine learning offer unique opportunities to provide health monitoring and assistance for individuals facing difficulties to live independently in their homes. Several components have to work together to provide health monitoring for smart home residents including, but not limited to, activity recognition, activity discovery, activity prediction, and prompting system. Compared to the significant research done to discover and recognize activities, less attention has been given to predict the future activities that the resident is likely to perform. Activity prediction components can play a major role in design of a smart home. For instance, by taking advantage of an activity prediction module, a smart home can learn context-aware rules to prompt individuals to initiate important activities. In this paper, we propose an activity prediction model using Bayesian networks together with a novel two-step inference process to predict both the next activity features and the next activity label. We also propose an approach to predict the start time of the next activity which is based on modeling the relative start time of the predicted activity using the continuous normal distribution and outlier detection. To validate our proposed models, we used real data collected from physical smart environments. PMID:25937847

  4. Testing life history predictions in a long-lived seabird: a population matrix approach with improved parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doherty, P.F., Jr.; Schreiber, E.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Link, W.A.; Schenk, G.A.; Schreiber, R.W.

    2004-01-01

    Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (lambda) in long-lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which lambda is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which lambda is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life-history predictions in a population of red-tailed tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We support our first prediction that lambda is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Ni?o) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which lambda was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data-sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.

  5. Hidden Behavior Prediction of Complex Systems Based on Hybrid Information.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Zhi-Jie; Hu, Chang-Hua; Zhang, Bang-Cheng; Xu, Dong-Ling; Chen, Yu-Wang

    2013-04-01

    It is important to predict both observable and hidden behaviors in complex engineering systems. However, compared with observable behavior, it is often difficult to establish a forecasting model for hidden behavior. The existing methods for predicting the hidden behavior cannot effectively and simultaneously use the hybrid information with uncertainties that include qualitative knowledge and quantitative data. Although belief rule base (BRB) has been employed to predict the observable behavior using the hybrid information with uncertainties, it is still not applicable to predict the hidden behavior directly. As such, in this paper, a new BRB-based model is proposed to predict the hidden behavior. In the proposed BRB-based model, the initial values of parameters are usually given by experts, thus some of them may not be accurate, which can lead to inaccurate prediction results. In order to solve the problem, a parameter estimation algorithm for training the parameters of the forecasting model is further proposed on the basis of maximum likelihood algorithm. Using the hybrid information with uncertainties, the proposed model can combine together with the parameter estimation algorithm and improve the forecasting precision in an integrated and effective manner. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability and potential applications of the proposed forecasting model with the parameter estimation algorithm. PMID:22907969

  6. A protein structural classes prediction method based on predicted secondary structure and PSI-BLAST profile.

    PubMed

    Ding, Shuyan; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhuoxing; Yan, Shoujiang

    2014-02-01

    Knowledge of protein secondary structural classes plays an important role in understanding protein folding patterns. In this paper, 25 features based on position-specific scoring matrices are selected to reflect evolutionary information. In combination with other 11 rational features based on predicted protein secondary structure sequences proposed by the previous researchers, a 36-dimensional representation feature vector is presented to predict protein secondary structural classes for low-similarity sequences. ASTRALtraining dataset is used to train and design our method, other three low-similarity datasets ASTRALtest, 25PDB and 1189 are used to test the proposed method. Comparisons with other methods show that our method is effective to predict protein secondary structural classes. Stand alone version of the proposed method (PSSS-PSSM) is written in MATLAB language and it can be downloaded from http://letsgob.com/bioinfo_PSSS_PSSM/. PMID:24067326

  7. A vertical handoff decision algorithm based on ARMA prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ru; Shen, Jiao; Chen, Jun; Liu, Qiuhuan

    2011-12-01

    With the development of computer technology and the increasing demand for mobile communications, the next generation wireless networks will be composed of various wireless networks (e.g., WiMAX and WiFi). Vertical handoff is a key technology of next generation wireless networks. During the vertical handoff procedure, handoff decision is a crucial issue for an efficient mobility. Based on auto regression moving average (ARMA) prediction model, we propose a vertical handoff decision algorithm, which aims to improve the performance of vertical handoff and avoid unnecessary handoff. Based on the current received signal strength (RSS) and the previous RSS, the proposed approach adopt ARMA model to predict the next RSS. And then according to the predicted RSS to determine whether trigger the link layer triggering event and complete vertical handoff. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the RSS-based scheme with a threshold in the performance of handoff and the number of handoff.

  8. A vertical handoff decision algorithm based on ARMA prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ru; Shen, Jiao; Chen, Jun; Liu, Qiuhuan

    2012-01-01

    With the development of computer technology and the increasing demand for mobile communications, the next generation wireless networks will be composed of various wireless networks (e.g., WiMAX and WiFi). Vertical handoff is a key technology of next generation wireless networks. During the vertical handoff procedure, handoff decision is a crucial issue for an efficient mobility. Based on auto regression moving average (ARMA) prediction model, we propose a vertical handoff decision algorithm, which aims to improve the performance of vertical handoff and avoid unnecessary handoff. Based on the current received signal strength (RSS) and the previous RSS, the proposed approach adopt ARMA model to predict the next RSS. And then according to the predicted RSS to determine whether trigger the link layer triggering event and complete vertical handoff. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the RSS-based scheme with a threshold in the performance of handoff and the number of handoff.

  9. Prediction Assessments: Using Video-Based Predictions to Assess Prospective Teachers' Knowledge of Students' Mathematical Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Anderson; McCloskey, Andrea; Hudson, Rick A.

    2011-01-01

    In order to evaluate the effectiveness of an experimental elementary mathematics field experience course, we have designed a new assessment instrument. These video-based prediction assessments engage prospective teachers in a video analysis of a child solving mathematical tasks. The prospective teachers build a model of that child's mathematics…

  10. Operationalizing climate-based epidemic prediction models: Rift Valley fever prediction system experience

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background There is considerable optimism that climate data and predictions will facilitate early warning of infectious disease epidemics. Interest in climate-based epidemic forecasting stems from climate-disease associations and global climate change (rising temperatures may extend arthropod vecto...

  11. CMC Property Variability and Life Prediction Methods for Turbine Engine Component Application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheplak, Matthew L.

    2004-01-01

    The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow

  12. Does early-life income inequality predict self-reported health in later life? Evidence from the United States.

    PubMed

    Lillard, Dean R; Burkhauser, Richard V; Hahn, Markus H; Wilkins, Roger

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the association between adult health and the income inequality they experienced as children up to 80 years earlier. Our inequality data track shares of national income held by top percentiles from 1913 to 2009. We average those data over the same early-life years and merge them to individual data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1984-2009. Controlling for demographic and economic factors, we find both men and women are statistically more likely to report poorer health if income was more unequally distributed during the first years of their lives. The association is robust to alternative specifications of income inequality and time trends and remains significant even when we control for differences in overall childhood health. Our results constitute prima facie evidence that adults' health may be adversely affected by the income inequality they experienced as children. PMID:25577308

  13. Quality of life following endonasal skull base surgery.

    PubMed

    Pant, Harshita; Bhatki, Amol M; Snyderman, Carl H; Vescan, Allan D; Carrau, Ricardo L; Gardner, Paul; Prevedello, Daniel; Kassam, Amin B

    2010-01-01

    The importance of quality of life (QOL) outcomes following treatments for head and neck tumors are now increasingly appreciated and measured to improve medical and surgical care for these patients. An understanding of the definitions in the setting of health care and the use of appropriate QOL instruments and measures are critical to obtain meaningful information that guides decision making in various aspects of patient health care. QOL outcomes following cranial base surgery is only recently being defined. In this article, we describe the current published data on QOL outcomes following cranial base surgery and provide preliminary prospective data on QOL outcomes and sinonasal morbidity in patients who underwent endonasal cranial base surgery for management of various skull base tumors at our institution. We used a disease-specific multidimensional instrument to measure QOL outcomes in these patients. Our results show that although sinonasal morbidity is increased, this is temporary, and the vast majority of patients have a very good QOL by 4 to 6 months after endonasal approach to the cranial base. PMID:20592856

  14. Predicting protein-protein interactions based only on sequences information.

    PubMed

    Shen, Juwen; Zhang, Jian; Luo, Xiaomin; Zhu, Weiliang; Yu, Kunqian; Chen, Kaixian; Li, Yixue; Jiang, Hualiang

    2007-03-13

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are central to most biological processes. Although efforts have been devoted to the development of methodology for predicting PPIs and protein interaction networks, the application of most existing methods is limited because they need information about protein homology or the interaction marks of the protein partners. In the present work, we propose a method for PPI prediction using only the information of protein sequences. This method was developed based on a learning algorithm-support vector machine combined with a kernel function and a conjoint triad feature for describing amino acids. More than 16,000 diverse PPI pairs were used to construct the universal model. The prediction ability of our approach is better than that of other sequence-based PPI prediction methods because it is able to predict PPI networks. Different types of PPI networks have been effectively mapped with our method, suggesting that, even with only sequence information, this method could be applied to the exploration of networks for any newly discovered protein with unknown biological relativity. In addition, such supplementary experimental information can enhance the prediction ability of the method. PMID:17360525

  15. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao

    2016-03-01

    Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems.

  16. Development of a 5 year life expectancy index in older adults using predictive mining of electronic health record data

    PubMed Central

    Mathias, Jason Scott; Agrawal, Ankit; Feinglass, Joe; Cooper, Andrew J; Baker, David William; Choudhary, Alok

    2013-01-01

    Objective Incorporating accurate life expectancy predictions into clinical decision making could improve quality and decrease costs, but few providers do this. We sought to use predictive data mining and high dimensional analytics of electronic health record (EHR) data to develop a highly accurate and clinically actionable 5 year life expectancy index. Materials and methods We developed the index using EHR data for 7463 patients ≥50 years old with ≥1 visit(s) in 2003 to a large, academic, multispecialty group practice. We extracted 980 attributes from the EHRs of the practices and affiliated hospitals. Correlation feature selection with greedy stepwise search was used to find the attribute subset with best average merit. Rotation forest ensembling with alternating decision tree as underlying classifier was used to predict 5 year mortality. Model performance was compared with the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Walter life expectancy method. Results Within 5 years of the last visit in 2003, 838 (11%) patients had died. The final model included 24 attributes: two demographic (age, sex), 10 comorbidity (eg, cardiovascular disease), one vital sign (mean diastolic blood pressure), two medications (loop diuretic use, digoxin use), six laboratory (eg, mean albumin), and three healthcare utilization (eg, the number of hospitalizations 1 year prior to the last visit in 2003). The index showed very good discrimination (c-statistic 0.86) and outperformed comparators. Conclusions The EHR based index successfully distinguished adults ≥50 years old with life expectancy >5 years from those with life expectancy ≤5 years. This information could be used clinically to optimize preventive service use (eg, cancer screening in the elderly). PMID:23538722

  17. Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

    2014-06-01

    There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

  18. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herman, Daniel A.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

  19. THE FUTURE OF COMPUTER-BASED TOXICITY PREDICTION: MECHANISM-BASED MODELS VS. INFORMATION MINING APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory


    The Future of Computer-Based Toxicity Prediction:
    Mechanism-Based
    Models vs. Information Mining Approaches

    When we speak of computer-based toxicity prediction, we are generally referring to a broad array of approaches which rely primarily upon chemical structure ...

  20. Stress-System Genes and Life Stress Predict Cortisol Levels and Amygdala and Hippocampal Volumes in Children

    PubMed Central

    Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S; Belden, Andrew C; Botteron, Kelly N; Harms, Michael P; Barch, Deanna M

    2014-01-01

    Depression has been linked to increased cortisol reactivity and differences in limbic brain volumes, yet the mechanisms underlying these alterations are unclear. One main hypothesis is that stress causes these effects. This is supported by animal studies showing that chronic stress or glucocorticoid administration can lead to alterations in hippocampal and amygdala structures. Relatedly, life stress is cited as one of the major risk factors for depression and candidate gene studies have related variation in stress-system genes to increased prevalence and severity of depression. The present study tested the hypothesis that genetic profile scores combining variance across 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms from four stress-system genes (CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) and early life stress would predict increases in cortisol levels during laboratory stressors in 120 preschool-age children (3–5 years old), as well as hippocampal and amygdala volumes assessed with MRI in these same children at school age (7–12 years old). We found that stress-system genetic profile scores positively predicted cortisol levels while the number of stressful/traumatic life events experienced by 3–5 years old negatively predicted cortisol levels. The interaction of genetic profile scores and early life stress predicted left hippocampal and left amygdala volumes. Cortisol partially mediated the effects of genetic variation and life stress on limbic brain volumes, particularly on left amygdala volume. These results suggest that stress-related genetic and early environmental factors contribute to variation in stress cortisol reactivity and limbic brain volumes in children, phenotypes associated with depression in adulthood. PMID:24304824

  1. Prediction of reactive hazards based on molecular structure.

    PubMed

    Saraf, S R; Rogers, W J; Mannan, M S

    2003-03-17

    There is considerable interest in prediction of reactive hazards based on chemical structure. Calorimetric measurements to determine reactivity can be resource consuming, so computational methods to predict reactivity hazards present an attractive option. This paper reviews some of the commonly employed theoretical hazard evaluation techniques, including the oxygen-balance method, ASTM CHETAH, and calculated adiabatic reaction temperature (CART). It also discusses the development of a study table to correlate and predict calorimetric properties of pure compounds. Quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) based on quantum mechanical calculations can be employed to correlate calorimetrically measured onset temperatures, T(o), and energies of reaction, -deltaH, with molecular properties. To test the feasibility of this approach, the QSPR technique is used to correlate differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) data, T(o) and -deltaH, with molecular properties for 19 nitro compounds. PMID:12628775

  2. LES based urban dispersal predictions for consequence management

    SciTech Connect

    Grinstein, Fernando Franklin; Bos, Randall; Dey, Tom

    2008-01-01

    It is unlikely that we will ever have a deterministic predictive framework for the study of flows in urban scale scenarios purely based on computational fluid dynamics. This is due to the inherent difficulty in modeling and validating all relevant physical sub-processes and acquiring all the necessary and relevant boundary condition information. On the other hand, this case is representative of very fundamental ones for which whole-domain scalable laboratory (or field) studies are impossible or very difficult, but for which it is also crucial to develop predictability. In this paper, we discuss a framework for detailed dispersal predictions in urban and regional settings based on effective linkage of strong motion codes - capable of simulating detailed energetic and contaminant sources, and large-eddy simulation - capable of emulating contaminant transport due to wind and turbulence fields in built-up areas. Challenging technical aspects of the simulation approach are outlined and recent progress is reviewed in th is context.

  3. Fast prediction unit selection method for HEVC intra prediction based on salient regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Lei; Dai, Ming; Zhao, Chun-lei; Xiong, Jing-ying

    2016-07-01

    In order to reduce the computational complexity of the high efficiency video coding (HEVC) standard, a new algorithm for HEVC intra prediction, namely, fast prediction unit (PU) size selection method for HEVC based on salient regions is proposed in this paper. We first build a saliency map for each largest coding unit (LCU) to reduce its texture complexity. Secondly, the optimal PU size is determined via a scheme that implements an information entropy comparison among sub-blocks of saliency maps. Finally, we apply the partitioning result of saliency map on the original LCUs, obtaining the optimal partitioning result. Our algorithm can determine the PU size in advance to the angular prediction in intra coding, reducing computational complexity of HEVC. The experimental results show that our algorithm achieves a 37.9% reduction in encoding time, while producing a negligible loss in Bjontegaard delta bit rate ( BDBR) of 0.62%.

  4. Predicting shifts in dynamics of cannibalistic field populations using individual-based models.

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M; Bertolo, Andrea

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of qualitative shifts in population dynamical regimes has long been the focus of population biologists. Nonlinear ecological models predict that these shifts in dynamical regimes may occur as a result of parameter shifts, but unambiguous empirical evidence is largely restricted to laboratory populations. We used an individual-based modelling approach to predict dynamical shifts in field fish populations where the capacity to cannibalize differed between species. Model-generated individual growth trajectories that reflect different population dynamics were confronted with empirically observed growth trajectories, showing that our ordering and quantitative estimates of the different cannibalistic species in terms of life-history characteristics led to correct qualitative predictions of their dynamics. PMID:15590600

  5. Factors Predicting Health Related Quality of Life in Pediatric Liver Transplant Recipients in the Functional Outcomes Group

    PubMed Central

    Alonso, Estella M; Martz, Karen; Wang, Deli; Yi, Michael S.; Neighbors, Katie; Varni, James W; Bucuvalas, John C.

    2013-01-01

    Data from 997 pediatric liver transplant (LT) recipients were used to model demographic and medical variables as predictors of lower levels of health related quality of life (HRQOL). Data were collected through Studies of Pediatric Liver Transplantation (SPLIT) Functional Outcomes Group (FOG) project. Patients were between 2-18 years of age and survived LT by at least 12 months. Parents and children (age ≥ 8 years) completed PedsQL ™ 4.0 Generic Core and Cognitive Functioning Scales at one time point. Demographic and medical variables were obtained from SPLIT. HRQOL scores were categorized “poor” based on lower 25% of scores for each measure. Logistic regression models were generated. Single-parent households (OR 1.94, CI 1.13 – 3.33, p=0.017), anti-seizure medications (OR 3.99, CI 1.26 – 12.70, p=0.019) and number of days hospitalized (OR 1.03, CI 1.01 – 1.06, p=0.0067) were associated with lower self-reported HRQOL. Parent data identified increasing age at transplant, age 5-12 years at survey, hospitalization > 21 days at LT, re-operations, diabetes and growth failure at LT as additional predictors of generic HRQOL. Male gender, single-parent households, higher bilirubin levels at LT and use of anti-seizure medication predicted lower cognitive function scores. HRQOL following pediatric LT is related to medical and demographic variables. PMID:23902630

  6. Fuzzy-Based Trust Prediction Model for Routing in WSNs

    PubMed Central

    Anita, X.; Bhagyaveni, M. A.; Manickam, J. Martin Leo

    2014-01-01

    The cooperative nature of multihop wireless sensor networks (WSNs) makes it vulnerable to varied types of attacks. The sensitive application environments and resource constraints of WSNs mandate the requirement of lightweight security scheme. The earlier security solutions were based on historical behavior of neighbor but the security can be enhanced by predicting the future behavior of the nodes in the network. In this paper, we proposed a fuzzy-based trust prediction model for routing (FTPR) in WSNs with minimal overhead in regard to memory and energy consumption. FTPR incorporates a trust prediction model that predicts the future behavior of the neighbor based on the historical behavior, fluctuations in trust value over a period of time, and recommendation inconsistency. In order to reduce the control overhead, FTPR received recommendations from a subset of neighbors who had maximum number of interactions with the requestor. Theoretical analysis and simulation results of FTPR protocol demonstrate higher packet delivery ratio, higher network lifetime, lower end-to-end delay, and lower memory and energy consumption than the traditional and existing trust-based routing schemes. PMID:25133236

  7. Image-based prediction of drug target in yeast.

    PubMed

    Ohnuki, Shinsuke; Okada, Hiroki; Ohya, Yoshikazu

    2015-01-01

    Discovering the intracellular target of drugs is a fundamental challenge in biomedical research. We developed an image-based technique with which we were able to identify intracellular target of the compounds in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Here, we describe the rationale of the technique, staining of yeast cells, image acquisition, data processing, and statistical analysis required for prediction of drug targets. PMID:25618355

  8. The Role of Social Relationships in Predicting Loneliness: The National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Leitsch, Sara A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors explore associations between objective and subjective social network characteristics and loneliness in later life, using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project, a nationally representative sample of individuals ages 57 to 85 in the United States. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the associations…

  9. Predicting Quality of Life of Youth after They Leave Special Education High School Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heal, Laird W.; Khoju, Madhab; Rusch, Frank R.

    1997-01-01

    A study of 713 former special education students investigated the background characteristics associated with an elevated quality of life after leaving high school. Esteem, independence, and support were correlated with geo-economic, family, personal, and school program characteristics. Competency was found to be a primary quality-of-life factor.…

  10. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  11. Relationship between Recent Life Events, Social Supports, and Attitudes to Domestic Violence: Predictive Roles in Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guoping, Huang; Yalin, Zhang; Yuping, Cao; Momartin, Shakeh; Ming, Wei

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between recent life events, attitudes to domestic violence (DV), and DV behaviors among perpetrators of DV in China. A total of 600 participants were assessed for recent life events, psychological functioning, social support, and attitudes to DV. Results demonstrated that recent negative life…

  12. Familiarity and anticipation of negative life events as moderator variables in predicting illness.

    PubMed

    Gardner, R M; Ostrowski, T A; Pino, R D; Morrell, J A; Kochevar, R

    1992-09-01

    A 10-month longitudinal study with 79 university students examined the role of positive and negative life experiences on the subsequent development of health problems. The Life Experiences Survey (LES; Sarason, Johnson & Siegel, 1978) was modified to measure the potential role of five moderating variables on illness. Students gave monthly reports of life events experienced, as well as health status, on the Seriousness of Illness Rating Scale (Wyler, Masuda & Holmes, 1968). Results indicated that both positive and negative life events were predictors of subsequent health problems. Negative life events that were familiar to the students and were unanticipated proved to be significant moderator variables; both factors were significant predictors of the number of health problems subsequently experienced. PMID:1401142

  13. Fatigue behavior and life prediction of a SiC/Ti-24Al-11Nb composite under isothermal conditions. Ph. D. Thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Bartolotta, P.A.

    1991-08-01

    Metal Matrix Composites (MMC) and Intermetallic Matrix Composites (IMC) were identified as potential material candidates for advanced aerospace applications. They are especially attractive for high temperature applications which require a low density material that maintains its structural integrity at elevated temperatures. High temperature fatigue resistance plays an important role in determining the structural integrity of the material. This study attempts to examine the relevance of test techniques, failure criterion, and life prediction as they pertain to an IMC material, specifically, unidirectional SiC fiber reinforced titanium aluminide. A series of strain and load controlled fatigue tests were conducted on unidirectional SiC/Ti-24Al-11Nb composite at 425 and 815 C. Several damage mechanism regimes were identified by using a strain-based representation of the data, Talreja's fatigue life diagram concept. Results of these tests were then used to address issues of test control modes, definition of failure, and testing techniques. Finally, a strain-based life prediction method was proposed for an IMC under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures.

  14. Fatigue behavior and life prediction of a SiC/Ti-24Al-11Nb composite under isothermal conditions. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartolotta, Paul A.

    1991-01-01

    Metal Matrix Composites (MMC) and Intermetallic Matrix Composites (IMC) were identified as potential material candidates for advanced aerospace applications. They are especially attractive for high temperature applications which require a low density material that maintains its structural integrity at elevated temperatures. High temperature fatigue resistance plays an important role in determining the structural integrity of the material. This study attempts to examine the relevance of test techniques, failure criterion, and life prediction as they pertain to an IMC material, specifically, unidirectional SiC fiber reinforced titanium aluminide. A series of strain and load controlled fatigue tests were conducted on unidirectional SiC/Ti-24Al-11Nb composite at 425 and 815 C. Several damage mechanism regimes were identified by using a strain-based representation of the data, Talreja's fatigue life diagram concept. Results of these tests were then used to address issues of test control modes, definition of failure, and testing techniques. Finally, a strain-based life prediction method was proposed for an IMC under tensile cyclic loadings at elevated temperatures.

  15. Predicting Difficult Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy Based on Clinicoradiological Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Udachan, Tejaswini V; Sasnur, Prasad; Baloorkar, Ramakanth; Sindgikar, Vikram; Narasangi, Basavaraj

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is the gold standard treatment for symptomatic cholelithiasis. However, of all Laparoscopic cholecystectomies, 1-13% requires conversion to an open for various reasons. Thus, for surgeons it would be helpful to establish criteria that would predict difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy and conversion preoperatively. But there is no clear consensus among the laparoscopic surgeons regarding the parameters predicting the difficult dissection and conversion to open cholecystectomy. Aim To assess the clinical and radiological parameters for predicting the difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy and its conversion. Materials and Methods This was a prospective study conducted from October 2010 to October 2014. Total of 180 patients meeting the inclusion criteria undergoing LC were included in the study. Four parameters were assessed to predict the difficult LC. These parameters were: 1) Gallbladder wall thickness; 2) Pericholecystic fluid collection; 3) Number of attacks; 4) Total leucocyte count. The statistical analysis was done using Z-test. Results Out of 180 patients included in this study 126 (70%) were easy, 44 (24.44%) were difficult and 3 (5.56%) patients required conversion to open cholecystectomy. The overall conversion rate was 5.6%. The TLC>11000, more than 2 previous attacks of cholecystitis, GB wall thickness of >3mm and Pericholecystic collection were all statistically significant for predicting the difficult LC and its conversion. Conclusion The difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy and conversion to open surgery can be predicted preoperatively based on number of previous attacks of cholecystitis, WBC count, Gall bladder wall thickness and Pericholecystic collection. PMID:26816942

  16. FKBP5 genotype interacts with early life trauma to predict heavy drinking in college students.

    PubMed

    Lieberman, Richard; Armeli, Stephen; Scott, Denise M; Kranzler, Henry R; Tennen, Howard; Covault, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is debilitating and costly. Identification and better understanding of risk factors influencing the development of AUD remain a research priority. Although early life exposure to trauma increases the risk of adulthood psychiatric disorders, including AUD, many individuals exposed to early life trauma do not develop psychopathology. Underlying genetic factors may contribute to differential sensitivity to trauma experienced in childhood. The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is susceptible to long-lasting changes in function following childhood trauma. Functional genetic variation within FKBP5, a gene encoding a modulator of HPA axis function, is associated with the development of psychiatric symptoms in adulthood, particularly among individuals exposed to trauma early in life. In the current study, we examined interactions between self-reported early life trauma, past-year life stress, past-year trauma, and a single nucleotide polymorphism (rs1360780) in FKBP5 on heavy alcohol consumption in a sample of 1,845 college students from two university settings. Although we found no effect of early life trauma on heavy drinking in rs1360780*T-allele carriers, rs1360780*C homozygotes exposed to early life trauma had a lower probability of heavy drinking compared to rs1360780*C homozygotes not exposed to early life trauma (P < 0.01). The absence of an interaction between either current life stress or past-year trauma, and FKBP5 genotype on heavy drinking suggests that there exists a developmental period of susceptibility to stress that is moderated by FKBP5 genotype. These findings implicate interactive effects of early life trauma and FKBP5 genetic variation on heavy drinking. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27196697

  17. Improving protein structure prediction using multiple sequence-based contact predictions

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Sitao; Szilagyi, Andras; Zhang, Yang

    2011-01-01

    Summary Although residue-residue contact maps dictate the topology of proteins, sequence-based ab initio contact predictions have been found little use in actual structure prediction due to the low accuracy. We developed a composite set of nine SVM-based contact predictors which are used in I-TASSER simulation in combination with sparse template contact restraints. When testing the strategy on 273 non-homologous targets, remarkable improvements of I-TASSER models were observed for both easy and hard targets, with P-value by student s t-test below 0.00001 and 0.001, respectively. In several cases, TM-score increases by >30%, which essentially converts “non-foldable” targets into “foldable” ones. In CASP9, I-TASSER employed ab initio contact predictions, and generated models for 26 FM targets with a GDT-score 16% and 44% higher than the second and third best servers from other groups, respectively. These findings demonstrate a new avenue to improve the accuracy of protein structure prediction especially for free-modeling targets. PMID:21827953

  18. Acute hepatotoxicity: a predictive model based on focused illumina microarrays.

    PubMed

    Zidek, Nadine; Hellmann, Juergen; Kramer, Peter-Juergen; Hewitt, Philip G

    2007-09-01

    Drug-induced hepatotoxicity is a major issue for drug development, and toxicogenomics has the potential to predict toxicity during early toxicity screening. A bead-based Illumina oligonucleotide microarray containing 550 liver specific genes has been developed. We have established a predictive screening system for acute hepatotoxicity by analyzing differential gene expression profiles of well-known hepatotoxic and nonhepatotoxic compounds. Low and high doses of tetracycline, carbon tetrachloride (CCL4), 1-naphthylisothiocyanate (ANIT), erythromycin estolate, acetaminophen (AAP), or chloroform as hepatotoxicants, clofibrate, theophylline, naloxone, estradiol, quinidine, or dexamethasone as nonhepatotoxic compounds, were administered as a single dose to male Sprague-Dawley rats. After 6, 24, and 72 h, livers were taken for histopathological evaluation and for analysis of gene expression alterations. All hepatotoxic compounds tested generated individual gene expression profiles. Based on leave-one-out cross-validation analysis, gene expression profiling allowed the accurate discrimination of all model compounds, 24 h after high dose treatment. Even during the regeneration phase, 72 h after treatment, CCL4, ANIT, and AAP were predicted to be hepatotoxic, and only these three compounds showed histopathological changes at this time. Furthermore, we identified 64 potential marker genes responsible for class prediction, which reflected typical hepatotoxicity responses. These genes and pathways, commonly deregulated by hepatotoxicants, may be indicative of the early characterization of hepatotoxicity and possibly predictive of later hepatotoxicity onset. Two unknown test compounds were used for prevalidating the screening test system, with both being correctly predicted. We conclude that focused gene microarrays are sufficient to classify compounds with respect to toxicity prediction. PMID:17522070

  19. Gene prediction in metagenomic fragments based on the SVM algorithm

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Metagenomic sequencing is becoming a powerful technology for exploring micro-ogranisms from various environments, such as human body, without isolation and cultivation. Accurately identifying genes from metagenomic fragments is one of the most fundamental issues. Results In this article, we present a novel gene prediction method named MetaGUN for metagenomic fragments based on a machine learning approach of SVM. It implements in a three-stage strategy to predict genes. Firstly, it classifies input fragments into phylogenetic groups by a k-mer based sequence binning method. Then, protein-coding sequences are identified for each group independently with SVM classifiers that integrate entropy density profiles (EDP) of codon usage, translation initiation site (TIS) scores and open reading frame (ORF) length as input patterns. Finally, the TISs are adjusted by employing a modified version of MetaTISA. To identify protein-coding sequences, MetaGun builds the universal module and the novel module. The former is based on a set of representative species, while the latter is designed to find potential functionary DNA sequences with conserved domains. Conclusions Comparisons on artificial shotgun fragments with multiple current metagenomic gene finders show that MetaGUN predicts better results on both 3' and 5' ends of genes with fragments of various lengths. Especially, it makes the most reliable predictions among these methods. As an application, MetaGUN was used to predict genes for two samples of human gut microbiome. It identifies thousands of additional genes with significant evidences. Further analysis indicates that MetaGUN tends to predict more potential novel genes than other current metagenomic gene finders. PMID:23735199

  20. Do self-report and medical record comorbidity data predict longitudinal functional capacity and quality of life health outcomes similarly?

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The search for a reliable, valid and cost-effective comorbidity risk adjustment method for outcomes research continues to be a challenge. The most widely used tool, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is limited due to frequent missing data in medical records and administrative data. Patient self-report data has the potential to be more complete but has not been widely used. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Self-Administered Comorbidity Questionnaire (SCQ) to predict functional capacity, quality of life (QOL) health outcomes compared to CCI medical records data. Method An SCQ-score was generated from patient interview, and the CCI score was generated by medical record review for 525 patients hospitalized for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) at baseline, three months and eight months post-discharge. Linear regression models assessed the extent to which there were differences in the ability of comorbidity measures to predict functional capacity (Activity Status Index [ASI] scores) and quality of life (EuroQOL 5D [EQ5D] scores). Results The CCI (R2 = 0.245; p = 0.132) did not predict quality of life scores while the SCQ self-report method (R2 = 0.265; p < 0.0005) predicted the EQ5D scores. However, the CCI was almost as good as the SCQ for predicting the ASI scores at three and six months and performed slightly better in predicting ASI at eight-month follow up (R2 = 0.370; p < 0.0005 vs. R2 = 0.358; p < 0.0005) respectively. Only age, gender, family income and Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CESD) scores showed significant association with both measures in predicting QOL and functional capacity. Conclusions Although our model R-squares were fairly low, these results show that the self-report SCQ index is a good alternative method to predict QOL health outcomes when compared to a CCI medical record score. Both measures predicted physical functioning similarly. This suggests that patient self-reported comorbidity

  1. Association between mid-life marital status and cognitive function in later life: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Håkansson, Krister; Rovio, Suvi; Helkala, Eeva-Liisa; Vilska, Anna-Riitta; Winblad, Bengt; Soininen, Hilkka; Nissinen, Aulikki; Mohammed, Abdul H

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate whether mid-life marital status is related to cognitive function in later life. Design Prospective population based study with an average follow-up of 21 years. Setting Kuopio and Joensuu regions in eastern Finland. Participants Participants were derived from random, population based samples previously investigated in 1972, 1977, 1982, or 1987; 1449 individuals (73%), aged 65-79, underwent re-examination in 1998. Main outcome measures Alzheimer’s disease and mild cognitive impairment. Results People cohabiting with a partner in mid-life (mean age 50.4) were less likely than all other categories (single, separated, or widowed) to show cognitive impairment later in life at ages 65-79. Those widowed or divorced in mid-life and still so at follow-up had three times the risk compared with married or cohabiting people. Those widowed both at mid-life and later life had an odds ratio of 7.67 (1.6 to 40.0) for Alzheimer’s disease compared with married or cohabiting people. The highest increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease was in carriers of the apolipoprotein E e4 allele who lost their partner before mid-life and were still widowed or divorced at follow-up. The progressive entering of several adjustment variables from mid-life did not alter these associations. Conclusions Living in a relationship with a partner might imply cognitive and social challenges that have a protective effect against cognitive impairment later in life, consistent with the brain reserve hypothesis. The specific increased risk for widowed and divorced people compared with single people indicates that other factors are needed to explain parts of the results. A sociogenetic disease model might explain the dramatic increase in risk of Alzheimer’s disease for widowed apolipoprotein E e4 carriers. PMID:19574312

  2. Phase-space factors and half-life predictions for Majoron-emitting β-β- decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotila, J.; Barea, J.; Iachello, F.

    2015-06-01

    A complete calculation of phase space factors (PSFs) for Majoron-emitting 0 ν β-β- decay modes is presented. The calculation makes use of exact Dirac wave functions with finite nuclear size and electron screening and includes lifetimes, single-electron spectra, summed electron spectra, and angular electron correlations. Combining these results with recent microscopic interacting boson model nuclear matrix elements (NMEs) we make half-life predictions for the ordinary Majoron decay (spectral index n =1 ). Furthermore, comparing theoretical predictions with the obtained experimental lower bounds for this decay mode we are able to set limits on the effective Majoron-neutrino coupling constant .

  3. Effect of Load Rate on Tensile Strength of Various CFCCs at Elevated Temperatures: An Approach to Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Strength of three continuous fiber-reinforced ceramic composites, including SiC/CAS-11, SiC/MAS-5 and SiC/SiC, was determined as a function of test rate in air at 1100 - 1200 C. All three composite materials exhibited a strong dependency of strength on test rate, similar to the behavior observed in many advanced monolithic ceramics at elevated temperatures. The application of the preloading technique as well as the prediction of life from one loading configuration (constant stress-rate) to another (constant stress loading) suggested that the overall macroscopic failure mechanism of the composites would be the one governed by a power-law tyw of damage evolution/accumulation, analogous to slow crack growth commonly observed in advanced monolithic ceramics. It was further found that constant stress-rate testing could be used as an alternative to life prediction test methodology even for the composite materials at least for the short range of lifetime.

  4. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  5. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  6. Contrast sensitivity function calibration based on image quality prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Yu; Cai, Yunze

    2014-11-01

    Contrast sensitivity functions (CSFs) describe visual stimuli based on their spatial frequency. However, CSF calibration is limited by the size of the sample collection and this remains an open issue. In this study, we propose an approach for calibrating CSFs that is based on the hypothesis that a precise CSF model can accurately predict image quality. Thus, CSF calibration is regarded as the inverse problem of image quality prediction according to our hypothesis. A CSF could be calibrated by optimizing the performance of a CSF-based image quality metric using a database containing images with known quality. Compared with the traditional method, this would reduce the work involved in sample collection dramatically. In the present study, we employed three image databases to optimize some existing CSF models. The experimental results showed that the performance of a three-parameter CSF model was better than that of other models. The results of this study may be helpful in CSF and image quality research.

  7. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks. PMID:26752405

  8. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks. PMID:26752405

  9. Life extending control for rocket engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lorenzo, C. F.; Saus, J. R.; Ray, A.; Carpino, M.; Wu, M.-K.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of life extending control is defined. A brief discussion of current fatigue life prediction methods is given and the need for an alternative life prediction model based on a continuous functional relationship is established. Two approaches to life extending control are considered: (1) the implicit approach which uses cyclic fatigue life prediction as a basis for control design; and (2) the continuous life prediction approach which requires a continuous damage law. Progress on an initial formulation of a continuous (in time) fatigue model is presented. Finally, nonlinear programming is used to develop initial results for life extension for a simplified rocket engine (model).

  10. Longitudinal Analysis of a Model to Predict Quality of Life in Prostate Cancer Patients and their Spouses

    PubMed Central

    Kershaw, Trace S.; Mood, Darlene W.; Newth, Gail; Ronis, David L.; Sanda, Martin G.; Vaishampayan, Ulka; Northouse, Laurel L.

    2010-01-01

    Background/Purpose This study examined a stress-coping model to assess whether baseline antecedent variables predicted subsequent appraisal, and how that appraisal predicted coping and quality of life for prostate cancer patients and their spouses. Methods In a sample of 121 prostate cancer patient/spouse dyads, we assessed baseline antecedent variables (self-efficacy, current concerns, age, socioeconomic status, social support, communication, symptoms, phase of illness), 4-month follow-up appraisal (negative appraisal, hopelessness, uncertainty), and 8-month follow-up coping and mental and physical quality of life. Patients and spouses were assessed in a single integrated path model using structural equation modeling. Results The stress-coping model accounted for a significant amount of variance in mental and physical quality of life at 8 months for patients (40% and 34%, respectively) and spouses (43% and 24%, respectively). Appraisal mediated the effect of several antecedent variables on quality of life. In addition, several partner effects (e.g., spouse variables influencing patient outcomes) were found. Conclusions Prostate cancer patients need interventions that assist them to manage the effects of their disease. The stress-coping model suggests skills in several areas that could be improved. Programs need to include spouses because they also are negatively affected by the disease and can influence patient outcomes. PMID:18830672

  11. Ontology-based prediction of surgical events in laparoscopic surgery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katić, Darko; Wekerle, Anna-Laura; Gärtner, Fabian; Kenngott, Hannes; Müller-Stich, Beat Peter; Dillmann, Rüdiger; Speidel, Stefanie

    2013-03-01

    Context-aware technologies have great potential to help surgeons during laparoscopic interventions. Their underlying idea is to create systems which can adapt their assistance functions automatically to the situation in the OR, thus relieving surgeons from the burden of managing computer assisted surgery devices manually. To this purpose, a certain kind of understanding of the current situation in the OR is essential. Beyond that, anticipatory knowledge of incoming events is beneficial, e.g. for early warnings of imminent risk situations. To achieve the goal of predicting surgical events based on previously observed ones, we developed a language to describe surgeries and surgical events using Description Logics and integrated it with methods from computational linguistics. Using n-Grams to compute probabilities of followup events, we are able to make sensible predictions of upcoming events in real-time. The system was evaluated on professionally recorded and labeled surgeries and showed an average prediction rate of 80%.

  12. Prediction of tectonically deformed coal based on lithologic seismic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Juanjuan; Pan, Dongming; Cui, Ruofei; Ding, Enjie; Zhang, Wei; Hu, Mingshun

    2016-02-01

    Owing to the differences in physical properties between tectonically deformed coal (TDC) and primary coal, lithologic seismic inversion methods were adopted to identify the coal structure type, including probabilistic neural network (PNN) inversion, elastic impedance (EI) inversion and simultaneous inversion methods. Based on poststack and prestack gathers, the inversion methods were applied to calculate lithologic seismic information, which included porosity, acoustic impedance, elastic impedance, λ × ρ and μ × ρ data. The inversion results were then analysed to evaluate the development potential of TDC. The research showed that the lithology inversion results, which indicated the potential zone of development areas of the coal, were all basically identical and a comprehensive prediction factor (the linear lithologic information combination) was proposed to effectively predict the development potential. Therefore, the prediction of TDC by lithologic seismic information could provide a scientific basis for both coal mining safety and the development potential of large-scale coalbed methane resources.

  13. Structure based activity prediction of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

    PubMed

    de Jonge, Marc R; Koymans, Lucien M H; Vinkers, H Maarten; Daeyaert, Frits F D; Heeres, Jan; Lewi, Paul J; Janssen, Paul A J

    2005-03-24

    We have developed a fast and robust computational method for prediction of antiviral activity in automated de novo design of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors. This is a structure-based approach that uses a linear relation between activity and interaction energy with discrete orientation sampling and with localized interaction energy terms. The localization allows for the analysis of mutations of the protein target and for the separation of inhibition and a specific binding to the enzyme. We apply the method to the prediction of pIC(50) of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The model predicts the activity of an arbitrary compound with a q(2) of 0.681 and an average absolute error of 0.66 log value, and it is fast enough to be used in high-throughput computational applications. PMID:15771460

  14. Small Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Predictions for High-Strength Aluminium Alloys. Part 1; Experimental and Fracture Mechanics Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, X. R.; Newman, J. C.; Zhao, W.; Swain, M. H.; Ding, C. F.; Phillips, E. P.

    1998-01-01

    The small crack effect was investigated in two high-strength aluminium alloys: 7075-T6 bare and LC9cs clad alloy. Both experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to study crack initiation and growth of small cracks. In the experimental program, fatigue tests, small crack and large crack tests A,ere conducted under constant amplitude and Mini-TWIST spectrum loading conditions. A pronounced small crack effect was observed in both materials, especially for the negative stress ratios. For all loading conditions, most of the fatigue life of the SENT specimens was shown to be crack propagation from initial material defects or from the cladding layer. In the analysis program, three-dimensional finite element and A weight function methods were used to determine stress intensity factors and to develop SIF equations for surface and corner cracks at the notch in the SENT specimens. A plastisity-induced crack-closure model was used to correlate small and large crack data, and to make fatigue life predictions, Predicted crack-growth rates and fatigue lives agreed well with experiments. A total fatigue life prediction method for the aluminum alloys was developed and demonstrated using the crack-closure model.

  15. Recalled, Present, and Predicted Satisfaction in Stages of the Family Life Cycle in New Zealand

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smart, Mollie S.; Smart, Russell C.

    1975-01-01

    Satisfaction in family living was studied in a New Zealand sample of 191 men and 285 women in the eight stages of the family life cycle. Results were compared with Rollins and Feldman's American sample. (Author)

  16. Long Cyclic Life in Manganese Oxide-Based Electrodes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhaoming; Qin, Qingqing; Xu, Wei; Yan, Jian; Wu, Yucheng

    2016-07-20

    Long cyclic life is very important to the practical application of the pseudocapacitors. A systematic study has been carried out to reveal what key factors and how they affecting the cycling behaviors of manganese oxides. The specific capacitance degradation of MnOx is usually attributed to the so-called "dissolution" issue. Our results indicate that "dissoluted MnOx" is in the form of the "flotsam" derived from the detached active materials instead of Mn(2+) in the solution, which causes color change of electrolyte and the loss of specific capacitance. During the cycling, the morphology of manganese oxides transformed to flower-like flakes regardless of the starting structures. After that, it tends to form nanowires especially at elevated temperatures. According to the relative low electrochemical utility of nanowires, specific capacitance might decrease at this stage. These results put forward new questions on charge storage mechanism. Besides, electrochemical oxidation of MnOx leads to an increase in specific capacitance. The cycling behavior of MnOx is mainly determined by these three factors. Excitingly, a very stable cycling performance with no capacitance degradation over 40 000 cycles has been achieved in MnO2 hierarchical sphere-based electrodes. This study provides insightful understanding of the fundamental cycling behavior of MnOx-based electrodes and useful instructions for developing highly stable supercapacitors. PMID:27347779

  17. Micromechanics-based strength and lifetime prediction of polymer composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandorawalla, Tozer Jamshed

    for stress rupture lifetime. The model can be used to help understand and predict the role of temperature in accelerated measurement of stress-rupture lifetimes. It is suggested that damage in the gripped section of purely unidirectional specimens often leads to inaccurate measurements of rupture lifetime. Hence, rupture lifetimes are measured for [90/03]s carbon fiber/polymer matrix specimens where surface 90° plies protect the 0° plies from damage. Encouraging comparisons are made between the experimental and predicted lifetimes of the [90/03]s laminate. Finally, it is shown that the strength-life equal rank assumption is erroneous because of fundamental differences between quasi-static and stress-rupture failure behaviors in unidirectional polymer composites.

  18. High accuracy operon prediction method based on STRING database scores.

    PubMed

    Taboada, Blanca; Verde, Cristina; Merino, Enrique

    2010-07-01

    We present a simple and highly accurate computational method for operon prediction, based on intergenic distances and functional relationships between the protein products of contiguous genes, as defined by STRING database (Jensen,L.J., Kuhn,M., Stark,M., Chaffron,S., Creevey,C., Muller,J., Doerks,T., Julien,P., Roth,A., Simonovic,M. et al. (2009) STRING 8-a global view on proteins and their functional interactions in 630 organisms. Nucleic Acids Res., 37, D412-D416). These two parameters were used to train a neural network on a subset of experimentally characterized Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis operons. Our predictive model was successfully tested on the set of experimentally defined operons in E. coli and B. subtilis, with accuracies of 94.6 and 93.3%, respectively. As far as we know, these are the highest accuracies ever obtained for predicting bacterial operons. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the predictable accuracy of our model when using an organism's data set for the training procedure, and a different organism's data set for testing, we repeated the E. coli operon prediction analysis using a neural network trained with B. subtilis data, and a B. subtilis analysis using a neural network trained with E. coli data. Even for these cases, the accuracies reached with our method were outstandingly high, 91.5 and 93%, respectively. These results show the potential use of our method for accurately predicting the operons of any other organism. Our operon predictions for fully-sequenced genomes are available at http://operons.ibt.unam.mx/OperonPredictor/. PMID:20385580

  19. High sexual signalling rates of young individuals predict extended life span in male Mediterranean fruit flies.

    PubMed

    Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Carey, James R; Müller, Hans-Georg; Zhang, Ying

    2004-01-01

    In a laboratory study, we monitored the lifetime sexual signalling (advertisement) of wild male Mediterranean fruit flies, and we tested the hypothesis that high lifetime intensity of sexual signalling indicates high survival probabilities. Almost all males exhibited signalling and individual signalling rates were highly variable from the beginning of the adults' maturity and throughout their life span (average life span 62.3 days). Sexual signalling rates after day 10 (peak maturity) were consistently high until about 1 week before death. There was a positive relationship between daily signalling rates and life span, and an increase in signalling level by one unit over all times was associated with an approximately 50% decrease in mortality rate. Signalling rates early in adult life (day 6-20) were higher in the longest-lived than in the shortest-lived flies. These results support the hypothesis that intense sexual signalling indicates longer life span. We discuss the importance of age-specific behavioural studies for understanding the evolution of male life histories. PMID:14576929

  20. Personal and contextual factors predicting patients' reported quality of life: exploring congruency with Betty Neuman's assumptions.

    PubMed

    Hinds, C

    1990-04-01

    The search for factors which influence seriously ill people's quality of life continues to generate both interest and research. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 87 patients with lung cancer who ranged between the ages of 38 and 82 years. The purposes of this investigation were to determine whether relationships existed between patients' preferences for illness-related information, their satisfaction with family functioning, their level of learned resourcefulness and their reported quality of life. This paper focuses on the results of a stepwise multiple regression analysis which identified seven factors, namely, prognosis, surgery, current radiotherapy, performance status, self-control skills (learned resourcefulness), preference for information and age-group, which accounted for 30% of explained variance in patients' reported quality of life. No single factor contributed a substantial amount of the variance in this sample's reported quality of life. This observation suggests differences in people's perceptions of these factors and their importance to them. These results support a conclusion that people's evaluation of their quality of life is subjective, changeable and depends on the circumstances they face. Congruence between the assumptions underlying Neuman's health care system model, and the personal and contextual nature of these seven factors in patients' quality of life are explored. These findings are relevant for practice. PMID:2341691