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Sample records for bayesian phylogenetic analysis

  1. Phycas: software for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Swofford, David L

    2015-05-01

    Phycas is open source, freely available Bayesian phylogenetics software written primarily in C++ but with a Python interface. Phycas specializes in Bayesian model selection for nucleotide sequence data, particularly the estimation of marginal likelihoods, central to computing Bayes Factors. Marginal likelihoods can be estimated using newer methods (Thermodynamic Integration and Generalized Steppingstone) that are more accurate than the widely used Harmonic Mean estimator. In addition, Phycas supports two posterior predictive approaches to model selection: Gelfand-Ghosh and Conditional Predictive Ordinates. The General Time Reversible family of substitution models, as well as a codon model, are available, and data can be partitioned with all parameters unlinked except tree topology and edge lengths. Phycas provides for analyses in which the prior on tree topologies allows polytomous trees as well as fully resolved trees, and provides for several choices for edge length priors, including a hierarchical model as well as the recently described compound Dirichlet prior, which helps avoid overly informative induced priors on tree length. PMID:25577605

  2. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis supports an agricultural origin of Japonic languages.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sean; Hasegawa, Toshikazu

    2011-12-22

    Languages, like genes, evolve by a process of descent with modification. This striking similarity between biological and linguistic evolution allows us to apply phylogenetic methods to explore how languages, as well as the people who speak them, are related to one another through evolutionary history. Language phylogenies constructed with lexical data have so far revealed population expansions of Austronesian, Indo-European and Bantu speakers. However, how robustly a phylogenetic approach can chart the history of language evolution and what language phylogenies reveal about human prehistory must be investigated more thoroughly on a global scale. Here we report a phylogeny of 59 Japonic languages and dialects. We used this phylogeny to estimate time depth of its root and compared it with the time suggested by an agricultural expansion scenario for Japanese origin. In agreement with the scenario, our results indicate that Japonic languages descended from a common ancestor approximately 2182 years ago. Together with archaeological and biological evidence, our results suggest that the first farmers of Japan had a profound impact on the origins of both people and languages. On a broader level, our results are consistent with a theory that agricultural expansion is the principal factor for shaping global linguistic diversity. PMID:21543358

  3. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India

    PubMed Central

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H.; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Kazim, Syed Naqui; Dohare, Ravins; Kumar, Manoj; Parveen, Shama

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011–2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011–2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India. PMID:26977703

  4. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

    PubMed

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Kazim, Syed Naqui; Dohare, Ravins; Kumar, Manoj; Parveen, Shama

    2016-03-01

    Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India. PMID:26977703

  5. Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

  6. BAYESIAN PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS OF MITOCHONDRIAL COI DNA SEQUENCE FROM GLOBAL SAMPLES OF BEMISIA TABACI (HEMIPTERA: ALEYRODIDAE)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bemisia tabaci (Gen.)(Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is one of the most devastating agricultural pests worldwide and affects the yield of a broad range of agricultural, fiber, vegetable and ornamental crops. Global phylogenetic relationships of the major races of B. tabaci remain unresolved thus a Bayesi...

  7. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  8. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  9. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  10. Phylogenetic Analyses: A Toolbox Expanding towards Bayesian Methods

    PubMed Central

    Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Xia, Xuhua

    2008-01-01

    The reconstruction of phylogenies is becoming an increasingly simple activity. This is mainly due to two reasons: the democratization of computing power and the increased availability of sophisticated yet user-friendly software. This review describes some of the latest additions to the phylogenetic toolbox, along with some of their theoretical and practical limitations. It is shown that Bayesian methods are under heavy development, as they offer the possibility to solve a number of long-standing issues and to integrate several steps of the phylogenetic analyses into a single framework. Specific topics include not only phylogenetic reconstruction, but also the comparison of phylogenies, the detection of adaptive evolution, and the estimation of divergence times between species. PMID:18483574

  11. Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2016-03-01

    Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of "working distributions" to facilitate--or shorten--the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a "working" distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different "working" distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

  12. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  13. BigFoot: Bayesian alignment and phylogenetic footprinting with MCMC

    PubMed Central

    Satija, Rahul; Novák, Ádám; Miklós, István; Lyngsø, Rune; Hein, Jotun

    2009-01-01

    Background We have previously combined statistical alignment and phylogenetic footprinting to detect conserved functional elements without assuming a fixed alignment. Considering a probability-weighted distribution of alignments removes sensitivity to alignment errors, properly accommodates regions of alignment uncertainty, and increases the accuracy of functional element prediction. Our method utilized standard dynamic programming hidden markov model algorithms to analyze up to four sequences. Results We present a novel approach, implemented in the software package BigFoot, for performing phylogenetic footprinting on greater numbers of sequences. We have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach which samples both sequence alignments and locations of slowly evolving regions. We implement our method as an extension of the existing StatAlign software package and test it on well-annotated regions controlling the expression of the even-skipped gene in Drosophila and the α-globin gene in vertebrates. The results exhibit how adding additional sequences to the analysis has the potential to improve the accuracy of functional predictions, and demonstrate how BigFoot outperforms existing alignment-based phylogenetic footprinting techniques. Conclusion BigFoot extends a combined alignment and phylogenetic footprinting approach to analyze larger amounts of sequence data using MCMC. Our approach is robust to alignment error and uncertainty and can be applied to a variety of biological datasets. The source code and documentation are publicly available for download from PMID:19715598

  14. DIVERSITY OF BAT-ASSOCIATED LEPTOSPIRA IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON INFERRED BY BAYESIAN PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS OF 16S RIBOSOMAL DNA SEQUENCES

    PubMed Central

    MATTHIAS, MICHAEL A.; DÍAZ, M. MÓNICA; CAMPOS, KALINA J.; CALDERON, MARITZA; WILLIG, MICHAEL R.; PACHECO, VICTOR; GOTUZZO, EDUARDO; GILMAN, ROBERT H.; VINETZ, JOSEPH M.

    2008-01-01

    The role of bats as potential sources of transmission to humans or as maintenance hosts of leptospires is poorly understood. We quantified the prevalence of leptospiral colonization in bats in the Peruvian Amazon in the vicinity of Iquitos, an area of high biologic diversity. Of 589 analyzed bats, culture (3 of 589) and molecular evidence (20 of 589) of leptospiral colonization was found in the kidneys, yielding an overall colonization rate of 3.4%. Infection rates differed with habitat and location, and among different bat species. Bayesian analysis was used to infer phylogenic relationships of leptospiral 16S ribosomal DNA sequences. Tree topologies were consistent with groupings based on DNA-DNA hybridization studies. A diverse group of leptospires was found in peri-Iquitos bat populations including Leptospira interrogans (5 clones), L. kirschneri (1), L. borgpetersenii (4), L. fainei (1), and two previously undescribed leptospiral species (8). Although L. kirschenri and L. interrogans have been previously isolated from bats, this report is the first to describe L. borgpetersenii and L. fainei infection of bats. A wild animal reservoir of L. fainei has not been previously described. The detection in bats of the L. interrogans serovar Icterohemorrhagiae, a leptospire typically maintained by peridomestic rats, suggests a rodent-bat infection cycle. Bats in Iquitos maintain a genetically diverse group of leptospires. These results provide a solid basis for pursuing molecular epidemiologic studies of bat-associated Leptospira, a potentially new epidemiologic reservoir of transmission of leptospirosis to humans. PMID:16282313

  15. The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Dembo, Mana; Radovčić, Davorka; Garvin, Heather M; Laird, Myra F; Schroeder, Lauren; Scott, Jill E; Brophy, Juliet; Ackermann, Rebecca R; Musiba, Chares M; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

    2016-08-01

    Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed. PMID:27457542

  16. Phylogenetic Analysis of Poliovirus Sequences.

    PubMed

    Jorba, Jaume

    2016-01-01

    Comparative genomic sequencing is a major surveillance tool in the Polio Laboratory Network. Due to the rapid evolution of polioviruses (~1 % per year), pathways of virus transmission can be reconstructed from the pathways of genomic evolution. Here, we describe three main phylogenetic methods; estimation of genetic distances, reconstruction of a maximum-likelihood (ML) tree, and estimation of substitution rates using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The data set used consists of complete capsid sequences from a survey of poliovirus sequences available in GenBank. PMID:26983737

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of honey bee behavioral evolution.

    PubMed

    Raffiudin, Rika; Crozier, Ross H

    2007-05-01

    DNA sequences from three mitochondrial (rrnL, cox2, nad2) and one nuclear gene (itpr) from all 9 known honey bee species (Apis), a 10th possible species, Apis dorsata binghami, and three outgroup species (Bombus terrestris, Melipona bicolor and Trigona fimbriata) were used to infer Apis phylogenetic relationships using Bayesian analysis. The dwarf honey bees were confirmed as basal, and the giant and cavity-nesting species to be monophyletic. All nodes were strongly supported except that grouping Apis cerana with A. nigrocincta. Two thousand post-burnin trees from the phylogenetic analysis were used in a Bayesian comparative analysis to explore the evolution of dance type, nest structure, comb structure and dance sound within Apis. The ancestral honey bee species was inferred with high support to have nested in the open, and to have more likely than not had a silent vertical waggle dance and a single comb. The common ancestor of the giant and cavity-dwelling bees is strongly inferred to have had a buzzing vertical directional dance. All pairwise combinations of characters showed strong association, but the multiple comparisons problem reduces the ability to infer associations between states between characters. Nevertheless, a buzzing dance is significantly associated with cavity-nesting, several vertical combs, and dancing vertically, a horizontal dance is significantly associated with a nest with a single comb wrapped around the support, and open nesting with a single pendant comb and a silent waggle dance. PMID:17123837

  18. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

    PubMed

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J; Heath, Tracy A; Boussau, Bastien; Lartillot, Nicolas; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-07-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.]. PMID:27235697

  19. RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language

    PubMed Central

    Höhna, Sebastian; Landis, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com. [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.] PMID:27235697

  20. [Phylogenetic analysis of Pleurotus species].

    PubMed

    Shnyreva, A A; Shnyreva, A V

    2015-02-01

    We performed phylogenetic analysis for ten Pleurotus species, based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences of rDNA. A phylogenetic tree was constructed on the basis of 31 oyster fungi strains of different origin and 10 reference sequences from GenBank. Our analysis demonstrates that the tested Pleurotus species are of monophyletic origin. We evaluated the evolutionary distances between these species. Classic genetic analysis of sexual compatibility based on monocaryon (mon)-mon crosses showed no reproductive barriers within the P. cornucopiae-P. euosmus species complex. Thus, despite the divergence (subclustering) between commercial strains and natural isolates of P. ostreatus revealed by phylogenetic analysis, there is no reproductive isolation between these groups. A common allele of the matB locus was identified for the commercial strains Sommer and L/4, supporting the common origin of these strains. PMID:25966583

  1. Testing for Divergent Transmission Histories among Cultural Characters: A Study Using Bayesian Phylogenetic Methods and Iranian Tribal Textile Data

    PubMed Central

    Matthews, Luke J.; Tehrani, Jamie J.; Jordan, Fiona M.; Collard, Mark; Nunn, Charles L.

    2011-01-01

    Background Archaeologists and anthropologists have long recognized that different cultural complexes may have distinct descent histories, but they have lacked analytical techniques capable of easily identifying such incongruence. Here, we show how Bayesian phylogenetic analysis can be used to identify incongruent cultural histories. We employ the approach to investigate Iranian tribal textile traditions. Methods We used Bayes factor comparisons in a phylogenetic framework to test two models of cultural evolution: the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis and the multiple coherent units hypothesis. In the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis, a core tradition of characters evolves through descent with modification and characters peripheral to the core are exchanged among contemporaneous populations. In the multiple coherent units hypothesis, a core tradition does not exist. Rather, there are several cultural units consisting of sets of characters that have different histories of descent. Results For the Iranian textiles, the Bayesian phylogenetic analyses supported the multiple coherent units hypothesis over the hierarchically integrated system hypothesis. Our analyses suggest that pile-weave designs represent a distinct cultural unit that has a different phylogenetic history compared to other textile characters. Conclusions The results from the Iranian textiles are consistent with the available ethnographic evidence, which suggests that the commercial rug market has influenced pile-rug designs but not the techniques or designs incorporated in the other textiles produced by the tribes. We anticipate that Bayesian phylogenetic tests for inferring cultural units will be of great value for researchers interested in studying the evolution of cultural traits including language, behavior, and material culture. PMID:21559083

  2. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  3. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  4. Phylogenetic analysis of otospiralin protein

    PubMed Central

    Torktaz, Ibrahim; Behjati, Mohaddeseh; Rostami, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Fibrocyte-specific protein, otospiralin, is a small protein, widely expressed in the central nervous system as neuronal cell bodies and glia. The increased expression of otospiralin in reactive astrocytes implicates its role in signaling pathways and reparative mechanisms subsequent to injury. Indeed, otospiralin is considered to be essential for the survival of fibrocytes of the mesenchymal nonsensory regions of the cochlea. It seems that other functions of this protein are not yet completely understood. Materials and Methods: Amino acid sequences of otospiralin from 12 vertebrates were derived from National Center for Biotechnology Information database. Phylogenetic analysis and phylogeny estimation were performed using MEGA 5.0.5 program, and neighbor-joining tree was constructed by this software. Results: In this computational study, the phylogenetic tree of otospiralin has been investigated. Therefore, dendrograms of otospiralin were depicted. Alignment performed in MUSCLE method by UPGMB algorithm. Also, entropy plot determined for a better illustration of amino acid variations in this protein. Conclusion: In the present study, we used otospiralin sequence of 12 different species and by constructing phylogenetic tree, we suggested out group for some related species. PMID:27099854

  5. Phylogenetic analysis of adenovirus sequences.

    PubMed

    Harrach, Balázs; Benko, Mária

    2007-01-01

    Members of the family Adenoviridae have been isolated from a large variety of hosts, including representatives from every major vertebrate class from fish to mammals. The high prevalence, together with the fairly conserved organization of the central part of their genomes, make the adenoviruses one of (if not the) best models for studying viral evolution on a larger time scale. Phylogenetic calculation can infer the evolutionary distance among adenovirus strains on serotype, species, and genus levels, thus helping the establishment of a correct taxonomy on the one hand, and speeding up the process of typing new isolates on the other. Initially, four major lineages corresponding to four genera were recognized. Later, the demarcation criteria of lower taxon levels, such as species or types, could also be defined with phylogenetic calculations. A limited number of possible host switches have been hypothesized and convincingly supported. Application of the web-based BLAST and MultAlin programs and the freely available PHYLIP package, along with the TreeView program, enables everyone to make correct calculations. In addition to step-by-step instruction on how to perform phylogenetic analysis, critical points where typical mistakes or misinterpretation of the results might occur will be identified and hints for their avoidance will be provided. PMID:17656792

  6. Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

  7. Phylogenetic analysis of the spirochetes.

    PubMed Central

    Paster, B J; Dewhirst, F E; Weisburg, W G; Tordoff, L A; Fraser, G J; Hespell, R B; Stanton, T B; Zablen, L; Mandelco, L; Woese, C R

    1991-01-01

    The 16S rRNA sequences were determined for species of Spirochaeta, Treponema, Borrelia, Leptospira, Leptonema, and Serpula, using a modified Sanger method of direct RNA sequencing. Analysis of aligned 16S rRNA sequences indicated that the spirochetes form a coherent taxon composed of six major clusters or groups. The first group, termed the treponemes, was divided into two subgroups. The first treponeme subgroup consisted of Treponema pallidum, Treponema phagedenis, Treponema denticola, a thermophilic spirochete strain, and two species of Spirochaeta, Spirochaeta zuelzerae and Spirochaeta stenostrepta, with an average interspecies similarity of 89.9%. The second treponeme subgroup contained Treponema bryantii, Treponema pectinovorum, Treponema saccharophilum, Treponema succinifaciens, and rumen strain CA, with an average interspecies similarity of 86.2%. The average interspecies similarity between the two treponeme subgroups was 84.2%. The division of the treponemes into two subgroups was verified by single-base signature analysis. The second spirochete group contained Spirochaeta aurantia, Spirochaeta halophila, Spirochaeta bajacaliforniensis, Spirochaeta litoralis, and Spirochaeta isovalerica, with an average similarity of 87.4%. The Spirochaeta group was related to the treponeme group, with an average similarity of 81.9%. The third spirochete group contained borrelias, including Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia anserina, Borrelia hermsii, and a rabbit tick strain. The borrelias formed a tight phylogenetic cluster, with average similarity of 97%. THe borrelia group shared a common branch with the Spirochaeta group and was closer to this group than to the treponemes. A single spirochete strain isolated fromt the shew constituted the fourth group. The fifth group was composed of strains of Serpula (Treponema) hyodysenteriae and Serpula (Treponema) innocens. The two species of this group were closely related, with a similarity of greater than 99%. Leptonema illini

  8. Phylogenetic relationships and biogeography of the desert plant genus Fagonia (Zygophyllaceae), inferred by parsimony and Bayesian model averaging.

    PubMed

    Beier, B-A; Nylander, J A A; Chase, M W; Thulin, M

    2004-10-01

    Phylogenetic relationships within Fagonia were inferred from analyses of plastid trnL intron and nuclear ribosomal ITS DNA sequences. Sampling of the genus was nearly complete, including 32 of 34 species. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using parsimony, and Bayesian model averaging. The latter method allows model-based inference while accounting for model-selection uncertainty, and is here used for the first time in phylogenetic analyses. All species of Fagonia in the Old World, except F. cretica, form a weakly supported clade, and all Fagonia species of the New World, except F. scoparia, are well supported as sister to the Old World clade. Fagonia scoparia, from Mexico, and F. cretica, from Northern Africa, are well supported as sisters to all other Fagonia species. Vicariance-dispersal analysis, using DIVA, indicated that the occurrences of Fagonia in South America and southern Africa are due to dispersals, and also, that the ancestor of Fagonia had a distribution compatible with the boreotropics hypothesis. PMID:15324841

  9. Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

  10. PhyloSift: phylogenetic analysis of genomes and metagenomes

    PubMed Central

    Jospin, Guillaume; Lowe, Eric; Matsen, Frederick A.; Bik, Holly M.; Eisen, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    Like all organisms on the planet, environmental microbes are subject to the forces of molecular evolution. Metagenomic sequencing provides a means to access the DNA sequence of uncultured microbes. By combining DNA sequencing of microbial communities with evolutionary modeling and phylogenetic analysis we might obtain new insights into microbiology and also provide a basis for practical tools such as forensic pathogen detection. In this work we present an approach to leverage phylogenetic analysis of metagenomic sequence data to conduct several types of analysis. First, we present a method to conduct phylogeny-driven Bayesian hypothesis tests for the presence of an organism in a sample. Second, we present a means to compare community structure across a collection of many samples and develop direct associations between the abundance of certain organisms and sample metadata. Third, we apply new tools to analyze the phylogenetic diversity of microbial communities and again demonstrate how this can be associated to sample metadata. These analyses are implemented in an open source software pipeline called PhyloSift. As a pipeline, PhyloSift incorporates several other programs including LAST, HMMER, and pplacer to automate phylogenetic analysis of protein coding and RNA sequences in metagenomic datasets generated by modern sequencing platforms (e.g., Illumina, 454). PMID:24482762

  11. Phylogenetics.

    PubMed

    Sleator, Roy D

    2011-04-01

    The recent rapid expansion in the DNA and protein databases, arising from large-scale genomic and metagenomic sequence projects, has forced significant development in the field of phylogenetics: the study of the evolutionary relatedness of the planet's inhabitants. Advances in phylogenetic analysis have greatly transformed our view of the landscape of evolutionary biology, transcending the view of the tree of life that has shaped evolutionary theory since Darwinian times. Indeed, modern phylogenetic analysis no longer focuses on the restricted Darwinian-Mendelian model of vertical gene transfer, but must also consider the significant degree of lateral gene transfer, which connects and shapes almost all living things. Herein, I review the major tree-building methods, their strengths, weaknesses and future prospects. PMID:21249334

  12. Bayesian Analysis of Underground Flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogardi, Istvan; Duckstein, Lucien; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

    1982-08-01

    An event-based stochastic model is used to describe the spatial phenomenon of water inrush into underground works located under a karstic aquifer, and a Bayesian analysis is performed because of high parameter uncertainty. The random variables of the model are inrush yield per event, distance between events, number of events per unit underground space, maximum yield, and total yield over mine lifetime. Physically based hypotheses on the types of distributions are made and reinforced by observations. High parameter uncertainty stems from the random characteristics of karstic limestone and the limited amount of observation data. Thus, during the design stage, only indirect data such as regional information and geological analogies are available; updating of this information should then be done as the construction progresses and inrush events are observed and recorded. A Bayes simulation algorithm is developed and applied to estimate the probability distributions of inrush event characteristics used in the design of water control facilities in underground mining. A real-life example in the Transdanubian region of Hungary is used to illustrate the methodology.

  13. Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1990-10-01

    The simple Poisson model generally gives a good fit to many volcanoes for volcanic eruption forecasting. Nonetheless, empirical evidence suggests that volcanic activity in successive equal time-periods tends to be more variable than a simple Poisson with constant eruptive rate. An alternative model is therefore examined in which eruptive rate(λ) for a given volcano or cluster(s) of volcanoes is described by a gamma distribution (prior) rather than treated as a constant value as in the assumptions of a simple Poisson model. Bayesian analysis is performed to link two distributions together to give the aggregate behavior of the volcanic activity. When the Poisson process is expanded to accomodate a gamma mixing distribution on λ, a consequence of this mixed (or compound) Poisson model is that the frequency distribution of eruptions in any given time-period of equal length follows the negative binomial distribution (NBD). Applications of the proposed model and comparisons between the generalized model and simple Poisson model are discussed based on the historical eruptive count data of volcanoes Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Etna (Italy). Several relevant facts lead to the conclusion that the generalized model is preferable for practical use both in space and time.

  14. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

  15. Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

    SciTech Connect

    Marsainy, T. Mart, T.

    2014-09-25

    We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

  16. An Integrated Bayesian Model for DIF Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soares, Tufi M.; Goncalves, Flavio B.; Gamerman, Dani

    2009-01-01

    In this article, an integrated Bayesian model for differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is proposed. The model is integrated in the sense of modeling the responses along with the DIF analysis. This approach allows DIF detection and explanation in a simultaneous setup. Previous empirical studies and/or subjective beliefs about the item…

  17. Phylogenetic analysis of Maverick/Polinton giant transposons across organisms.

    PubMed

    Haapa-Paananen, Saija; Wahlberg, Niklas; Savilahti, Harri

    2014-09-01

    Polintons are a recently discovered group of large transposable elements (<40Kb in size) encoding up to 10 different proteins. The increasing number of genome sequencing projects has led to the discovery of these elements in genomes of protists, fungi, and animals, but not in plants. The RepBase database of eukaryotic repetitive elements currently contains consensus sequences and information of 70 Polinton elements from 28 organisms. Previous phylogenetic analyses have shown the relationship of Polintons to linear plasmids, bacteriophages, and retroviruses. However, a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of all known Polintons has been lacking. We retrieved the Polinton consensus sequences from the most recent version of RepBase, and compiled amino acid sequences for the two most common Polinton-specific genes, the DNA polymerase-B and retroviral-like integrase. Open reading frame predictions and homology comparisons revealed partial or full sequences for 54 polymerases and 55 Polinton integrases. Multiple sequence alignments portrayed conservation in several functional motifs of these proteins. Phylogenetic analyses based on Bayesian inference using single- and combined-gene datasets revealed seven distinct lineages of Polintons that broadly follow the tree of life. Two of the seven lineages are found within the same species, indicating that ancient divergences have been retained to this day. PMID:24882428

  18. Bayesian Inference of the Evolution of a Phenotype Distribution on a Phylogenetic Tree

    PubMed Central

    Ansari, M. Azim; Didelot, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of a phenotype on a phylogenetic tree is often a quantity of interest. Many phenotypes have imperfect heritability, so that a measurement of the phenotype for an individual can be thought of as a single realization from the phenotype distribution of that individual. If all individuals in a phylogeny had the same phenotype distribution, measured phenotypes would be randomly distributed on the tree leaves. This is, however, often not the case, implying that the phenotype distribution evolves over time. Here we propose a new model based on this principle of evolving phenotype distribution on the branches of a phylogeny, which is different from ancestral state reconstruction where the phenotype itself is assumed to evolve. We develop an efficient Bayesian inference method to estimate the parameters of our model and to test the evidence for changes in the phenotype distribution. We use multiple simulated data sets to show that our algorithm has good sensitivity and specificity properties. Since our method identifies branches on the tree on which the phenotype distribution has changed, it is able to break down a tree into components for which this distribution is unique and constant. We present two applications of our method, one investigating the association between HIV genetic variation and human leukocyte antigen and the other studying host range distribution in a lineage of Salmonella enterica, and we discuss many other potential applications. PMID:27412711

  19. Complete mitochondrial genome of Cervus elaphus songaricus (Cetartiodactyla: Cervinae) and a phylogenetic analysis with related species.

    PubMed

    Li, Yiqing; Ba, Hengxing; Yang, Fuhe

    2016-01-01

    Complete mitochondrial genome of Tianshan wapiti, Cervus elaphus songaricus, is 16,419 bp in length and contains 13 protein-coding genes, 2 rRNA genes, 22 tRNA genes and 1 control region. The phylogenetic trees were reconstructed with the concatenated nucleotide sequences of the 13 protein-coding genes using maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) methods. MP and BI phylogenetic trees here showed an identical tree topology. The monopoly of red deer, wapiti and sika deer was well supported, and wapiti was found to share a closer relationship with sika deer. Tianshan wapiti shared a closer relationship with xanthopygus than yarkandensis. Rusa unicolor and Rucervus eldi were given a basal phylogenetic position. Our phylogenetic analysis provided a robust phylogenetic resolution spanning the entire evolutionary relationship of the subfamily Cervinae. PMID:24725059

  20. Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette

    2002-01-01

    Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…

  1. A Bayesian Approach for Multigroup Nonlinear Factor Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, Sik-Yum

    2002-01-01

    Developed a Bayesian approach for a general multigroup nonlinear factor analysis model that simultaneously obtains joint Bayesian estimates of the factor scores and the structural parameters subjected to some constraints across different groups. (SLD)

  2. On the analysis of phylogenetically paired designs

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Jennifer L; Rakovski, Cyril S; Macpherson, J Michael

    2015-01-01

    As phylogenetically controlled experimental designs become increasingly common in ecology, the need arises for a standardized statistical treatment of these datasets. Phylogenetically paired designs circumvent the need for resolved phylogenies and have been used to compare species groups, particularly in the areas of invasion biology and adaptation. Despite the widespread use of this approach, the statistical analysis of paired designs has not been critically evaluated. We propose a mixed model approach that includes random effects for pair and species. These random effects introduce a “two-layer” compound symmetry variance structure that captures both the correlations between observations on related species within a pair as well as the correlations between the repeated measurements within species. We conducted a simulation study to assess the effect of model misspecification on Type I and II error rates. We also provide an illustrative example with data containing taxonomically similar species and several outcome variables of interest. We found that a mixed model with species and pair as random effects performed better in these phylogenetically explicit simulations than two commonly used reference models (no or single random effect) by optimizing Type I error rates and power. The proposed mixed model produces acceptable Type I and II error rates despite the absence of a phylogenetic tree. This design can be generalized to a variety of datasets to analyze repeated measurements in clusters of related subjects/species. PMID:25750719

  3. A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

  4. A note on variational Bayesian factor analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jian-hua; Yu, Philip L H

    2009-09-01

    Existing works on variational bayesian (VB) treatment for factor analysis (FA) model such as [Ghahramani, Z., & Beal, M. (2000). Variational inference for Bayesian mixture of factor analysers. In Advances in neural information proceeding systems. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press; Nielsen, F. B. (2004). Variational approach to factor analysis and related models. Master's thesis, The Institute of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark.] are found theoretically and empirically to suffer two problems: (1) penalize the model more heavily than BIC and (2) perform unsatisfactorily in low noise cases as redundant factors can not be effectively suppressed. A novel VB treatment is proposed in this paper to resolve the two problems and a simulation study is conducted to testify its improved performance over existing treatments. PMID:19135337

  5. Phylogenetic relationships and demographic histories of the Atherinidae in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea re-examined by Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Pujolar, J M; Zane, L; Congiu, L

    2012-06-01

    The aim of our study is to examine the phylogenetic relationship, divergence times and demographic history of the five close-related Mediterranean and North-eastern Atlantic species/forms of Atherina using the full Bayesian framework for species tree estimation recently implemented in ∗BEAST. The inference is made possible by multilocus data using three mitochondrial genes (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, control region) and one nuclear gene (rhodopsin) from multiple individuals per species available in GenBank. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of the complete gene dataset produced a tree with strong support for the monophyly of each species, as well as high support for higher level nodes. An old origin of the Atherina group was suggested (19.2 MY), with deep split events within the Atherinidae predating the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Regional genetic substructuring was observed among populations of A. boyeri, with AMOVA and MultiDimensional Scaling suggesting the existence of five groupings (Atlantic/West Mediterranean, Adriatic, Greece, Black Sea and Tunis). The level of subdivision found might be consequence of the hydrographic isolation within the Mediterranean Sea. Bayesian inference of past demographic histories showed a clear signature of demographic expansion for the European coast populations of A. presbyter, possibly linked to post-glacial colonizations, but not for the Azores/Canary Islands, which is expected in isolated populations because of the impossibility of finding new habitats. Within the Mediterranean, signatures of recent demographic expansion were only found for the Adriatic population of A. boyeri, which could be associated with the relatively recent emergence of the Adriatic Sea. PMID:22425706

  6. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E.; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F.; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  7. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  8. Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, David; Mukherjee, Pia; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2006-06-15

    We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index n{sub S} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that n{sub S}{ne}1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of n{sub S}{ne}1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n{sub S}=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.

  9. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    PubMed Central

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

  10. Analysis of COSIMA spectra: Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehto, H. J.; Zaprudin, B.; Lehto, K. M.; Lönnberg, T.; Silén, J.; Rynö, J.; Krüger, H.; Hilchenbach, M.; Kissel, J.

    2015-06-01

    We describe the use of Bayesian analysis methods applied to time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometer (TOF-SIMS) spectra. The method is applied to the COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyzer (COSIMA) TOF-SIMS mass spectra where the analysis can be broken into subgroups of lines close to integer mass values. The effects of the instrumental dead time are discussed in a new way. The method finds the joint probability density functions of measured line parameters (number of lines, and their widths, peak amplitudes, integrated amplitudes and positions). In the case of two or more lines, these distributions can take complex forms. The derived line parameters can be used to further calibrate the mass scaling of TOF-SIMS and to feed the results into other analysis methods such as multivariate analyses of spectra. We intend to use the method, first as a comprehensive tool to perform quantitative analysis of spectra, and second as a fast tool for studying interesting targets for obtaining additional TOF-SIMS measurements of the sample, a property unique to COSIMA. Finally, we point out that the Bayesian method can be thought of as a means to solve inverse problems but with forward calculations, only with no iterative corrections or other manipulation of the observed data.

  11. A Distance Measure for Genome Phylogenetic Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Minh Duc; Allison, Lloyd; Dix, Trevor

    Phylogenetic analyses of species based on single genes or parts of the genomes are often inconsistent because of factors such as variable rates of evolution and horizontal gene transfer. The availability of more and more sequenced genomes allows phylogeny construction from complete genomes that is less sensitive to such inconsistency. For such long sequences, construction methods like maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood are often not possible due to their intensive computational requirement. Another class of tree construction methods, namely distance-based methods, require a measure of distances between any two genomes. Some measures such as evolutionary edit distance of gene order and gene content are computational expensive or do not perform well when the gene content of the organisms are similar. This study presents an information theoretic measure of genetic distances between genomes based on the biological compression algorithm expert model. We demonstrate that our distance measure can be applied to reconstruct the consensus phylogenetic tree of a number of Plasmodium parasites from their genomes, the statistical bias of which would mislead conventional analysis methods. Our approach is also used to successfully construct a plausible evolutionary tree for the γ-Proteobacteria group whose genomes are known to contain many horizontally transferred genes.

  12. Bayesian Nonparametric Models for Multiway Data Analysis.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zenglin; Yan, Feng; Qi, Yuan

    2015-02-01

    Tensor decomposition is a powerful computational tool for multiway data analysis. Many popular tensor decomposition approaches-such as the Tucker decomposition and CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP)-amount to multi-linear factorization. They are insufficient to model (i) complex interactions between data entities, (ii) various data types (e.g., missing data and binary data), and (iii) noisy observations and outliers. To address these issues, we propose tensor-variate latent nonparametric Bayesian models for multiway data analysis. We name these models InfTucker. These new models essentially conduct Tucker decomposition in an infinite feature space. Unlike classical tensor decomposition models, our new approaches handle both continuous and binary data in a probabilistic framework. Unlike previous Bayesian models on matrices and tensors, our models are based on latent Gaussian or t processes with nonlinear covariance functions. Moreover, on network data, our models reduce to nonparametric stochastic blockmodels and can be used to discover latent groups and predict missing interactions. To learn the models efficiently from data, we develop a variational inference technique and explore properties of the Kronecker product for computational efficiency. Compared with a classical variational implementation, this technique reduces both time and space complexities by several orders of magnitude. On real multiway and network data, our new models achieved significantly higher prediction accuracy than state-of-art tensor decomposition methods and blockmodels. PMID:26353255

  13. Optimal sequential Bayesian analysis for degradation tests.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Narciso, Silvia; Christen, J Andrés

    2016-07-01

    Degradation tests are especially difficult to conduct for items with high reliability. Test costs, caused mainly by prolonged item duration and item destruction costs, establish the necessity of sequential degradation test designs. We propose a methodology that sequentially selects the optimal observation times to measure the degradation, using a convenient rule that maximizes the inference precision and minimizes test costs. In particular our objective is to estimate a quantile of the time to failure distribution, where the degradation process is modelled as a linear model using Bayesian inference. The proposed sequential analysis is based on an index that measures the expected discrepancy between the estimated quantile and its corresponding prediction, using Monte Carlo methods. The procedure was successfully implemented for simulated and real data. PMID:26307336

  14. Bayesian analysis on gravitational waves and exoplanets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Xihao

    Attempts to detect gravitational waves using a pulsar timing array (PTA), i.e., a collection of pulsars in our Galaxy, have become more organized over the last several years. PTAs act to detect gravitational waves generated from very distant sources by observing the small and correlated effect the waves have on pulse arrival times at the Earth. In this thesis, I present advanced Bayesian analysis methods that can be used to search for gravitational waves in pulsar timing data. These methods were also applied to analyze a set of radial velocity (RV) data collected by the Hobby- Eberly Telescope on observing a K0 giant star. They confirmed the presence of two Jupiter mass planets around a K0 giant star and also characterized the stellar p-mode oscillation. The first part of the thesis investigates the effect of wavefront curvature on a pulsar's response to a gravitational wave. In it we show that we can assume the gravitational wave phasefront is planar across the array only if the source luminosity distance " 2piL2/lambda, where L is the pulsar distance to the Earth (˜ kpc) and lambda is the radiation wavelength (˜ pc) in the PTA waveband. Correspondingly, for a point gravitational wave source closer than ˜ 100 Mpc, we should take into account the effect of wavefront curvature across the pulsar-Earth line of sight, which depends on the luminosity distance to the source, when evaluating the pulsar timing response. As a consequence, if a PTA can detect a gravitational wave from a source closer than ˜ 100 Mpc, the effects of wavefront curvature on the response allows us to determine the source luminosity distance. The second and third parts of the thesis propose a new analysis method based on Bayesian nonparametric regression to search for gravitational wave bursts and a gravitational wave background in PTA data. Unlike the conventional Bayesian analysis that introduces a signal model with a fixed number of parameters, Bayesian nonparametric regression sets

  15. Taxonomic review and phylogenetic analysis of Enchodontoidei.

    PubMed

    Silva, Hilda M A; Gallo, Valéria

    2011-06-01

    Enchodontoidei are extinct marine teleost fishes with a long temporal range and a wide geographic distribution. As there has been no comprehensive phylogenetic study of this taxon, we performed a parsimony analysis using a data matrix with 87 characters, 31 terminal taxa for ingroup, and three taxa for outgroup. The analysis produced 93 equally parsimonious trees (L = 437 steps; CI = 0. 24; RI = 0. 49). The topology of the majority rule consensus tree was: (Sardinioides + Hemisaurida + (Nardorex + (Atolvorator + (Protostomias + Yabrudichthys ) + (Apateopholis + (Serrilepis + (Halec + Phylactocephalus ) + (Cimolichthys + (Prionolepis + ( (Eurypholis + Saurorhamphus ) + (Enchodus + (Paleolycus + Parenchodus ))))))) + ( (Ichthyotringa + Apateodus ) + (Rharbichthys + (Trachinocephalus + ( (Apuliadercetis + Brazilodercetis ) + (Benthesikyme + (Cyranichthys + Robertichthys ) + (Dercetis + Ophidercetis )) + (Caudadercetis + (Pelargorhynchus + (Nardodercetis + (Rhynchodercetis + (Dercetoides + Hastichthys )))))). The group Enchodontoidei is not monophyletic. Dercetidae form a clade supported by the presence of very reduced neural spines and possess a new composition. Enchodontidae are monophyletic by the presence of middorsal scutes, and Rharbichthys was excluded. Halecidae possess a new composition, with the exclusion of Hemisaurida. This taxon and Nardorex are Aulopiformes incertae sedis. PMID:21670874

  16. Interpretation of bootstrap values in phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Wiesemüller, Bernhard; Rothe, Hartmut

    2006-06-01

    Bootstrap Analysis is a common tool in cladistics, and consequently many authors tend to believe that it could be close to a test of monophyly. In fact, it is only a procedure to calculate the redundancy of a certain character pattern among taxa. To demonstrate this, we set up a study with questionable data: Four skulls of great apes and humans were digitally photographed, and the pixels' brightness values were simply transformed to a one-zero-matrix, which was then used to calculate a Wagner tree with PHYLIP. As a rule, the higher the resolution of the photos is, the higher are the bootstrap values of supported taxa (and the lower are the bootstrap values of non-supported data). Redundancy of intertaxic information might indeed be an indicator of phylogenetic relationship, but can also be due to other reasons, like functional-adaptive needs in morphology, or semantic needs in a DNA-code. As a result, we tend to believe that high bootstrap values are actually less important than low ones. It is safer, based on a low bootstrap value, to claim that a certain taxon is not well supported by certain data. Therefore, we recommend discussions of low bootstrap values in future publications. PMID:16850767

  17. Open Reading Frame Phylogenetic Analysis on the Cloud

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis has become essential in researching the evolutionary relationships between viruses. These relationships are depicted on phylogenetic trees, in which viruses are grouped based on sequence similarity. Viral evolutionary relationships are identified from open reading frames rather than from complete sequences. Recently, cloud computing has become popular for developing internet-based bioinformatics tools. Biocloud is an efficient, scalable, and robust bioinformatics computing service. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based open reading frame phylogenetic analysis service. The proposed service integrates the Hadoop framework, virtualization technology, and phylogenetic analysis methods to provide a high-availability, large-scale bioservice. In a case study, we analyze the phylogenetic relationships among Norovirus. Evolutionary relationships are elucidated by aligning different open reading frame sequences. The proposed platform correctly identifies the evolutionary relationships between members of Norovirus. PMID:23671843

  18. Open reading frame phylogenetic analysis on the cloud.

    PubMed

    Hung, Che-Lun; Lin, Chun-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis has become essential in researching the evolutionary relationships between viruses. These relationships are depicted on phylogenetic trees, in which viruses are grouped based on sequence similarity. Viral evolutionary relationships are identified from open reading frames rather than from complete sequences. Recently, cloud computing has become popular for developing internet-based bioinformatics tools. Biocloud is an efficient, scalable, and robust bioinformatics computing service. In this paper, we propose a cloud-based open reading frame phylogenetic analysis service. The proposed service integrates the Hadoop framework, virtualization technology, and phylogenetic analysis methods to provide a high-availability, large-scale bioservice. In a case study, we analyze the phylogenetic relationships among Norovirus. Evolutionary relationships are elucidated by aligning different open reading frame sequences. The proposed platform correctly identifies the evolutionary relationships between members of Norovirus. PMID:23671843

  19. Histological data in a combined phylogenetic analysis of scleractinian reef corals.

    PubMed

    Cordie, David R; Budd, Ann F

    2016-04-01

    Scleractinian systematics have undergone rapid changes due to increased use of molecular phylogenetics and new perspectives on skeletal morphology from micromorphology and microstructure. Despite this increase in characters there are still unresolved clades in the phylogeny, indicating that more characters are needed. This study investigates a new source of morphological data within the soft tissue of Indo-Pacific scleractinian corals. Features of tissue layers, especially cnidocytes, are described in hematoxylin and eosin stained thin sections. Based on this new histological data source, a combined analysis with mitochondrial DNA and skeletal data is performed using parsimony and Bayesian analysis. Parsimony analysis yields three most-parsimonious trees similar to trees based on Bayesian analysis. Character maps are also produced that show origination of histomorphological traits at deep nodes within the phylogeny. In general, both analyses retain the previously designated families Lobophylliidae and Merulinidae, but some genera are found to be paraphyletic. Nonetheless, the combined analysis produces a highly resolved and well-supported phylogeny, which could lead to more effective use of biological conservation metrics based on evolutionary distinctiveness. These results show for the first time that inclusion of histomorphological characters improves the resolution of phylogenetic analyses of reef corals. PMID:26843148

  20. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  1. Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

    1992-01-01

    'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

  2. [Phylogenetic analysis of bacteria of extreme ecosystems].

    PubMed

    Romanovskaia, V A; Parfenova, V V; Bel'kova, N L; Sukhanova, E V; Gladka, G V; Tashireva, A A

    2014-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of aerobic chemoorganotrophic bacteria of the two extreme regions (Dead Sea and West Antarctic) was performed on the basis of the nucleotide sequences of the 16S rRNA gene. Thermotolerant and halotolerant spore-forming bacteria 7t1 and 7t3 of terrestrial ecosystems Dead Sea identified as Bacillus licheniformis and B. subtilis subsp. subtilis, respectively. Taking into account remote location of thermotolerant strain 6t1 from closely related strains in the cluster Staphylococcus, 6t1 strain can be regarded as Staphylococcus sp. In terrestrial ecosystems, Galindez Island (Antarctic) detected taxonomically diverse psychrotolerant bacteria. From ornithogenic soil were isolated Micrococcus luteus O-1 and Microbacterium trichothecenolyticum O-3. Strains 4r5, 5r5 and 40r5, isolated from grass and lichens, can be referred to the genus Frondihabitans. These strains are taxonomically and ecologically isolated and on the tree diagram form the joint cluster with three isolates Frondihabitans sp., isolated from the lichen Austrian Alps, and psychrotolerant associated with plants F. cladoniiphilus CafT13(T). Isolates from black lichen in the different stationary observation points on the south side of a vertical cliff identified as: Rhodococcus fascians 181n3, Sporosarcina aquimarina O-7, Staphylococcus sp. 0-10. From orange biofilm of fouling on top of the vertical cliff isolated Arthrobacter sp. 28r5g1, from the moss-- Serratia sp. 6r1g. According to the results, Frondihabitans strains most frequently encountered among chemoorganotrophic aerobic bacteria in the Antarctic phytocenoses. PMID:25007437

  3. Enhancing the Modeling of PFOA Pharmacokinetics with Bayesian Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The detail sufficient to describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the methods necessary to combine information from multiple data sets are both subjects of ongoing investigation. Bayesian analysis provides tools to accommodate these goals. We exa...

  4. Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jewell, Jeffrey

    2007-01-01

    There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

  5. Bayesian mixture analysis for metagenomic community profiling

    PubMed Central

    Morfopoulou, Sofia; Plagnol, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Deep sequencing of clinical samples is now an established tool for the detection of infectious pathogens, with direct medical applications. The large amount of data generated produces an opportunity to detect species even at very low levels, provided that computational tools can effectively profile the relevant metagenomic communities. Data interpretation is complicated by the fact that short sequencing reads can match multiple organisms and by the lack of completeness of existing databases, in particular for viral pathogens. Here we present metaMix, a Bayesian mixture model framework for resolving complex metagenomic mixtures. We show that the use of parallel Monte Carlo Markov chains for the exploration of the species space enables the identification of the set of species most likely to contribute to the mixture. Results: We demonstrate the greater accuracy of metaMix compared with relevant methods, particularly for profiling complex communities consisting of several related species. We designed metaMix specifically for the analysis of deep transcriptome sequencing datasets, with a focus on viral pathogen detection; however, the principles are generally applicable to all types of metagenomic mixtures. Availability and implementation: metaMix is implemented as a user friendly R package, freely available on CRAN: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/metaMix Contact: sofia.morfopoulou.10@ucl.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bionformatics online. PMID:26002885

  6. Bayesian analysis of the backreaction models

    SciTech Connect

    Kurek, Aleksandra; Bolejko, Krzysztof; Szydlowski, Marek

    2010-03-15

    We present a Bayesian analysis of four different types of backreaction models, which are based on the Buchert equations. In this approach, one considers a solution to the Einstein equations for a general matter distribution and then an average of various observable quantities is taken. Such an approach became of considerable interest when it was shown that it could lead to agreement with observations without resorting to dark energy. In this paper we compare the {Lambda}CDM model and the backreaction models with type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background data, and find that the former is favored. However, the tested models were based on some particular assumptions about the relation between the average spatial curvature and the backreaction, as well as the relation between the curvature and curvature index. In this paper we modified the latter assumption, leaving the former unchanged. We find that, by varying the relation between the curvature and curvature index, we can obtain a better fit. Therefore, some further work is still needed--in particular, the relation between the backreaction and the curvature should be revisited in order to fully determine the feasibility of the backreaction models to mimic dark energy.

  7. Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Armero, C; Cabras, S; Castellanos, M E; Perra, S; Quirós, A; Oruezábal, M J; Sánchez-Rubio, J

    2016-02-01

    Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncologists and patients make efficient and effective decisions. PMID:22767866

  8. TREEFINDER: a powerful graphical analysis environment for molecular phylogenetics

    PubMed Central

    Jobb, Gangolf; von Haeseler, Arndt; Strimmer, Korbinian

    2004-01-01

    Background Most analysis programs for inferring molecular phylogenies are difficult to use, in particular for researchers with little programming experience. Results TREEFINDER is an easy-to-use integrative platform-independent analysis environment for molecular phylogenetics. In this paper the main features of TREEFINDER (version of April 2004) are described. TREEFINDER is written in ANSI C and Java and implements powerful statistical approaches for inferring gene tree and related analyzes. In addition, it provides a user-friendly graphical interface and a phylogenetic programming language. Conclusions TREEFINDER is a versatile framework for analyzing phylogenetic data across different platforms that is suited both for exploratory as well as advanced studies. PMID:15222900

  9. Efficiencies of the NJp, Maximum Likelihood, and Bayesian Methods of Phylogenetic Construction for Compositional and Noncompositional Genes.

    PubMed

    Yoshida, Ruriko; Nei, Masatoshi

    2016-06-01

    At the present time it is often stated that the maximum likelihood or the Bayesian method of phylogenetic construction is more accurate than the neighbor joining (NJ) method. Our computer simulations, however, have shown that the converse is true if we use p distance in the NJ procedure and the criterion of obtaining the true tree (Pc expressed as a percentage) or the combined quantity (c) of a value of Pc and a value of Robinson-Foulds' average topological error index (dT). This c is given by Pc (1 - dT/dTmax) = Pc (m - 3 - dT/2)/(m - 3), where m is the number of taxa used and dTmax is the maximum possible value of dT, which is given by 2(m - 3). This neighbor joining method with p distance (NJp method) will be shown generally to give the best data-fit model. This c takes a value between 0 and 1, and a tree-making method giving a high value of c is considered to be good. Our computer simulations have shown that the NJp method generally gives a better performance than the other methods and therefore this method should be used in general whether the gene is compositional or it contains the mosaic DNA regions or not. PMID:26929244

  10. Examining Phylogenetic Relationships Among Gibbon Genera Using Whole Genome Sequence Data Using an Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

    PubMed Central

    Veeramah, Krishna R.; Woerner, August E.; Johnstone, Laurel; Gut, Ivo; Gut, Marta; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Carbone, Lucia; Wall, Jeff D.; Hammer, Michael F.

    2015-01-01

    Gibbons are believed to have diverged from the larger great apes ∼16.8 MYA and today reside in the rainforests of Southeast Asia. Based on their diploid chromosome number, the family Hylobatidae is divided into four genera, Nomascus, Symphalangus, Hoolock, and Hylobates. Genetic studies attempting to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships among gibbons using karyotypes, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the Y chromosome, and short autosomal sequences have been inconclusive . To examine the relationships among gibbon genera in more depth, we performed second-generation whole genome sequencing (WGS) to a mean of ∼15× coverage in two individuals from each genus. We developed a coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method incorporating a model of sequencing error generated by high coverage exome validation to infer the branching order, divergence times, and effective population sizes of gibbon taxa. Although Hoolock and Symphalangus are likely sister taxa, we could not confidently resolve a single bifurcating tree despite the large amount of data analyzed. Instead, our results support the hypothesis that all four gibbon genera diverged at approximately the same time. Assuming an autosomal mutation rate of 1 × 10−9/site/year this speciation process occurred ∼5 MYA during a period in the Early Pliocene characterized by climatic shifts and fragmentation of the Sunda shelf forests. Whole genome sequencing of additional individuals will be vital for inferring the extent of gene flow among species after the separation of the gibbon genera. PMID:25769979

  11. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  12. A phylogenetic analysis of Aquifex pyrophilus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burggraf, S.; Olsen, G. J.; Stetter, K. O.; Woese, C. R.

    1992-01-01

    The 16S rRNA of the bacterion Aquifex pyrophilus, a microaerophilic, oxygen-reducing hyperthermophile, has been sequenced directly from the the PCR amplified gene. Phylogenetic analyses show the Aq. pyrophilus lineage to be probably the deepest (earliest) in the (eu)bacterial tree. The addition of this deep branching to the bacterial tree further supports the argument that the Bacteria are of thermophilic ancestry.

  13. Phylogenetic Analysis of Myobia musculi (Schranck, 1781) by Using the 18S Small Ribosomal Subunit Sequence

    PubMed Central

    Feldman, Sanford H; Ntenda, Abraham M

    2011-01-01

    We used high-fidelity PCR to amplify 2 overlapping regions of the ribosomal gene complex from the rodent fur mite Myobia musculi. The amplicons encompassed a large portion of the mite's ribosomal gene complex spanning 3128 nucleotides containing the entire 18S rRNA, internal transcribed spacer (ITS) 1, 5.8S rRNA, ITS2, and a portion of the 5′-end of the 28S rRNA. M. musculi’s 179-nucleotide 5.8S rRNA nucleotide sequence was not conserved, so this region was identified by conservation of rRNA secondary structure. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference phylogenetic analyses were performed by using multiple sequence alignment consisting of 1524 nucleotides of M. musculi 18S rRNA and homologous sequences from 42 prostigmatid mites and the tick Dermacentor andersoni. The phylograms produced by both methods were in agreement regarding terminal, secondary, and some tertiary phylogenetic relationships among mites. Bayesian inference discriminated most infraordinal relationships between Eleutherengona and Parasitengona mites in the suborder Anystina. Basal relationships between suborders Anystina and Eupodina historically determined by comparing differences in anatomic characteristics were less well-supported by our molecular analysis. Our results recapitulated similar 18S rRNA sequence analyses recently reported. Our study supports M. musculi as belonging to the suborder Anystina, infraorder Eleutherenona, and superfamily Cheyletoidea. PMID:22330574

  14. GLOBAL RELATIONSHIPS OF BEMISIA TABACI (HEMIPTERA: ALEYRODIDAE) REVEALED USING BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF MITOCHONDRIAL COI DNA SEQUENCE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global phylogenetic relationships of the major races of B. tabaci remain unresolved thus a Bayesian phylogenetic technique was utilized to elucidate affinities. All COI DNA sequence data available in Genbank for B. tabaci world-wide (369 specimens) were obtained and the first well resolved phylogen...

  15. A Bayesian approach on molecules and behavior: reconsidering phylogenetic and evolutionary patterns of the Salamandridae with emphasis on Triturus newts.

    PubMed

    Steinfartz, Sebastian; Vicario, Saverio; Arntzen, J W; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2007-03-15

    The monophyly of European newts of the genus Triturus within the family Salamandridae has for decades rested on presumably homologous behavioral and morphological characters. Molecular data challenge this hypothesis, but the phylogenetic position of Triturus within the Salamandridae has not yet been convincingly resolved. We addressed this issue and the temporal divergence of Triturus within the Salamandridae with novel Bayesian approaches applied to DNA sequence data from three mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S and cytb). We included 38 salamandrid species comprising all 13 recognized species of Triturus and 16 out of 17 salamandrid genera. A clade comprising all the "Newts" can be separated from the "True Salamanders" and Salamandrina clades. Within the "Newts" well-supported clades are: Tylototriton-Pleurodeles, the "New World Newts" (Notophthalmus-Taricha), and the "Modern Eurasian Newts" (Cynops, Pachytriton, Paramesotriton=together the "Modern Asian Newts", Calotriton, Euproctus, Neurergus and Triturus species). We found that Triturus is a non-monophyletic species assemblage, which includes four groups that are themselves monophyletic: (i) the "Large-Bodied Triturus" (six species), (ii) the "Small-Bodied Triturus" (five species), (iii) T. alpestris and (iv) T. vittatus. We estimated that the last common ancestor of Triturus existed around 64 million years ago (mya) while the root of the Salamandridae dates back to 95 mya. This was estimated using a fossil-based molecular dating approach and an explicit framework to select calibration points that least underestimated their corresponding nodes. Using the molecular phylogeny we mapped the evolution of life history and courtship traits in Triturus and found that several Triturus-specific courtship traits evolved independently. PMID:16969762

  16. An Efficient Independence Sampler for Updating Branches in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo Sampling of Phylogenetic Trees.

    PubMed

    Aberer, Andre J; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ronquist, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Sampling tree space is the most challenging aspect of Bayesian phylogenetic inference. The sheer number of alternative topologies is problematic by itself. In addition, the complex dependency between branch lengths and topology increases the difficulty of moving efficiently among topologies. Current tree proposals are fast but sample new trees using primitive transformations or re-mappings of old branch lengths. This reduces acceptance rates and presumably slows down convergence and mixing. Here, we explore branch proposals that do not rely on old branch lengths but instead are based on approximations of the conditional posterior. Using a diverse set of empirical data sets, we show that most conditional branch posteriors can be accurately approximated via a [Formula: see text] distribution. We empirically determine the relationship between the logarithmic conditional posterior density, its derivatives, and the characteristics of the branch posterior. We use these relationships to derive an independence sampler for proposing branches with an acceptance ratio of ~90% on most data sets. This proposal samples branches between 2× and 3× more efficiently than traditional proposals with respect to the effective sample size per unit of runtime. We also compare the performance of standard topology proposals with hybrid proposals that use the new independence sampler to update those branches that are most affected by the topological change. Our results show that hybrid proposals can sometimes noticeably decrease the number of generations necessary for topological convergence. Inconsistent performance gains indicate that branch updates are not the limiting factor in improving topological convergence for the currently employed set of proposals. However, our independence sampler might be essential for the construction of novel tree proposals that apply more radical topology changes. PMID:26231183

  17. Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holschneider, M.; Narteau, C.; Shebalin, P.; Peng, Z.; Schorlemmer, D.

    2012-06-01

    In order to examine variations in aftershock decay rate, we propose a Bayesian framework to estimate the {K, c, p}-values of the modified Omori law (MOL), λ(t) = K(c + t)-p. The Bayesian setting allows not only to produce a point estimator of these three parameters but also to assess their uncertainties and posterior dependencies with respect to the observed aftershock sequences. Using a new parametrization of the MOL, we identify the trade-off between the c and p-value estimates and discuss its dependence on the number of aftershocks. Then, we analyze the influence of the catalog completeness interval [tstart, tstop] on the various estimates. To test this Bayesian approach on natural aftershock sequences, we use two independent and non-overlapping aftershock catalogs of the same earthquakes in Japan. Taking into account the posterior uncertainties, we show that both the handpicked (short times) and the instrumental (long times) catalogs predict the same ranges of parameter values. We therefore conclude that the same MOL may be valid over short and long times.

  18. Exploration of phylogenetic data using a global sequence analysis method

    PubMed Central

    Chapus, Charles; Dufraigne, Christine; Edwards, Scott; Giron, Alain; Fertil, Bernard; Deschavanne, Patrick

    2005-01-01

    Background Molecular phylogenetic methods are based on alignments of nucleic or peptidic sequences. The tremendous increase in molecular data permits phylogenetic analyses of very long sequences and of many species, but also requires methods to help manage large datasets. Results Here we explore the phylogenetic signal present in molecular data by genomic signatures, defined as the set of frequencies of short oligonucleotides present in DNA sequences. Although violating many of the standard assumptions of traditional phylogenetic analyses – in particular explicit statements of homology inherent in character matrices – the use of the signature does permit the analysis of very long sequences, even those that are unalignable, and is therefore most useful in cases where alignment is questionable. We compare the results obtained by traditional phylogenetic methods to those inferred by the signature method for two genes: RAG1, which is easily alignable, and 18S RNA, where alignments are often ambiguous for some regions. We also apply this method to a multigene data set of 33 genes for 9 bacteria and one archea species as well as to the whole genome of a set of 16 γ-proteobacteria. In addition to delivering phylogenetic results comparable to traditional methods, the comparison of signatures for the sequences involved in the bacterial example identified putative candidates for horizontal gene transfers. Conclusion The signature method is therefore a fast tool for exploring phylogenetic data, providing not only a pretreatment for discovering new sequence relationships, but also for identifying cases of sequence evolution that could confound traditional phylogenetic analysis. PMID:16280081

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of marine mammal herpesviruses.

    PubMed

    Maness, Heather T D; Nollens, Hendrik H; Jensen, Eric D; Goldstein, Tracey; LaMere, Sarah; Childress, April; Sykes, John; St Leger, Judy; Lacave, Géraldine; Latson, F Ed; Wellehan, James F X

    2011-04-21

    Five novel DNA-dependent DNA polymerase (Dpol) herpesviral sequences were generated using nested consensus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in clinical samples from a harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), orca (Orcinus orca), California sea lion (Zalophus californianus), and a Phocid herpesvirus 2 (PhHV-2) isolate from a harbor seal (used as positive control). These novel sequences and other representative herpesvirus sequences were included in Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood analyses to illustrate the phylogeny of herpesviruses amongst the marine mammal host species and in comparison to those of other animals. All 19 novel and known marine mammal herpesviruses included in the analyses aligned with members of the Alphaherpesvirinae or Gammaherpesvirinae subfamilies. The novel harbor seal herpesvirus clustered with members of the Macavirus genus, subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae. The novel bottlenose dolphin herpesvirus clustered together in a monophyletic group with another delphinid alphaherpesvirus but could not be associated with an established genus. The orca herpesvirus also clustered with a delphinid alphaherpesvirus and formed a separate clade. The sea lion herpesvirus clustered with PhHV-2. PhHV-1 clustered with varicelloviruses and PhHV-2 clustered strongly in the Gammaherpesvirinae genus Percavirus. All cetacean gammaherpesviruses formed a monophyletic clade and could not be associated with an established gammaherpesviral genus. PMID:21055885

  20. Phylogenetic comparative methods complement discriminant function analysis in ecomorphology.

    PubMed

    Barr, W Andrew; Scott, Robert S

    2014-04-01

    In ecomorphology, Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) has been used as evidence for the presence of functional links between morphometric variables and ecological categories. Here we conduct simulations of characters containing phylogenetic signal to explore the performance of DFA under a variety of conditions. Characters were simulated using a phylogeny of extant antelope species from known habitats. Characters were modeled with no biomechanical relationship to the habitat category; the only sources of variation were body mass, phylogenetic signal, or random "noise." DFA on the discriminability of habitat categories was performed using subsets of the simulated characters, and Phylogenetic Generalized Least Squares (PGLS) was performed for each character. Analyses were repeated with randomized habitat assignments. When simulated characters lacked phylogenetic signal and/or habitat assignments were random, <5.6% of DFAs and <8.26% of PGLS analyses were significant. When characters contained phylogenetic signal and actual habitats were used, 33.27 to 45.07% of DFAs and <13.09% of PGLS analyses were significant. False Discovery Rate (FDR) corrections for multiple PGLS analyses reduced the rate of significance to <4.64%. In all cases using actual habitats and characters with phylogenetic signal, correct classification rates of DFAs exceeded random chance. In simulations involving phylogenetic signal in both predictor variables and predicted categories, PGLS with FDR was rarely significant, while DFA often was. In short, DFA offered no indication that differences between categories might be explained by phylogenetic signal, while PGLS did. As such, PGLS provides a valuable tool for testing the functional hypotheses at the heart of ecomorphology. PMID:24382658

  1. Comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of bacterial reverse transcriptases.

    PubMed

    Toro, Nicolás; Nisa-Martínez, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Much less is known about reverse transcriptases (RTs) in prokaryotes than in eukaryotes, with most prokaryotic enzymes still uncharacterized. Two surveys involving BLAST searches for RT genes in prokaryotic genomes revealed the presence of large numbers of diverse, uncharacterized RTs and RT-like sequences. Here, using consistent annotation across all sequenced bacterial species from GenBank and other sources via RAST, available from the PATRIC (Pathogenic Resource Integration Center) platform, we have compiled the data for currently annotated reverse transcriptases from completely sequenced bacterial genomes. RT sequences are broadly distributed across bacterial phyla, but green sulfur bacteria and cyanobacteria have the highest levels of RT sequence diversity (≤85% identity) per genome. By contrast, phylum Actinobacteria, for which a large number of genomes have been sequenced, was found to have a low RT sequence diversity. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that bacterial RTs could be classified into 17 main groups: group II introns, retrons/retron-like RTs, diversity-generating retroelements (DGRs), Abi-like RTs, CRISPR-Cas-associated RTs, group II-like RTs (G2L), and 11 other groups of RTs of unknown function. Proteobacteria had the highest potential functional diversity, as they possessed most of the RT groups. Group II introns and DGRs were the most widely distributed RTs in bacterial phyla. Our results provide insights into bacterial RT phylogeny and the basis for an update of annotation systems based on sequence/domain homology. PMID:25423096

  2. Comprehensive Phylogenetic Analysis of Bacterial Reverse Transcriptases

    PubMed Central

    Toro, Nicolás; Nisa-Martínez, Rafael

    2014-01-01

    Much less is known about reverse transcriptases (RTs) in prokaryotes than in eukaryotes, with most prokaryotic enzymes still uncharacterized. Two surveys involving BLAST searches for RT genes in prokaryotic genomes revealed the presence of large numbers of diverse, uncharacterized RTs and RT-like sequences. Here, using consistent annotation across all sequenced bacterial species from GenBank and other sources via RAST, available from the PATRIC (Pathogenic Resource Integration Center) platform, we have compiled the data for currently annotated reverse transcriptases from completely sequenced bacterial genomes. RT sequences are broadly distributed across bacterial phyla, but green sulfur bacteria and cyanobacteria have the highest levels of RT sequence diversity (≤85% identity) per genome. By contrast, phylum Actinobacteria, for which a large number of genomes have been sequenced, was found to have a low RT sequence diversity. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that bacterial RTs could be classified into 17 main groups: group II introns, retrons/retron-like RTs, diversity-generating retroelements (DGRs), Abi-like RTs, CRISPR-Cas-associated RTs, group II-like RTs (G2L), and 11 other groups of RTs of unknown function. Proteobacteria had the highest potential functional diversity, as they possessed most of the RT groups. Group II introns and DGRs were the most widely distributed RTs in bacterial phyla. Our results provide insights into bacterial RT phylogeny and the basis for an update of annotation systems based on sequence/domain homology. PMID:25423096

  3. Nested sampling applied in Bayesian room-acoustics decay analysis.

    PubMed

    Jasa, Tomislav; Xiang, Ning

    2012-11-01

    Room-acoustic energy decays often exhibit single-rate or multiple-rate characteristics in a wide variety of rooms/halls. Both the energy decay order and decay parameter estimation are of practical significance in architectural acoustics applications, representing two different levels of Bayesian probabilistic inference. This paper discusses a model-based sound energy decay analysis within a Bayesian framework utilizing the nested sampling algorithm. The nested sampling algorithm is specifically developed to evaluate the Bayesian evidence required for determining the energy decay order with decay parameter estimates as a secondary result. Taking the energy decay analysis in architectural acoustics as an example, this paper demonstrates that two different levels of inference, decay model-selection and decay parameter estimation, can be cohesively accomplished by the nested sampling algorithm. PMID:23145609

  4. A phylogenetic analysis of the megadiverse Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera) are extremely diverse with an estimated 500,000 species. We present the first phylogenetic analysis of the superfamily based on a cladistic analysis of both morphological and molecular data. A total of 233 morphological characters were scored for 300 taxa and 265 genera, a...

  5. Evolution & Phylogenetic Analysis: Classroom Activities for Investigating Molecular & Morphological Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franklin, Wilfred A.

    2010-01-01

    In a flexible multisession laboratory, students investigate concepts of phylogenetic analysis at both the molecular and the morphological level. Students finish by conducting their own analysis on a collection of skeletons representing the major phyla of vertebrates, a collection of primate skulls, or a collection of hominid skulls.

  6. A molecular phylogenetic analysis of strombid gastropod morphological diversity.

    PubMed

    Latiolais, Jared M; Taylor, Michael S; Roy, Kaustuv; Hellberg, Michael E

    2006-11-01

    The shells of strombid gastropods show a wide variety of forms, ranging from small and fusiform to large and elaborately ornamented with a strongly flared outer lip. Here, we present the first species-level molecular phylogeny for strombids and use the resulting phylogenetic framework to explore relationships between species richness and morphological diversity. We use portions of one nuclear (325 bp of histone H3) and one mitochondrial (640 bp of cytochrome oxidase I, COI) gene to infer relationships within the two most species-rich genera in the Strombidae: Strombus and Lambis. We include 32 species of Strombus, representing 10 of 11 extant subgenera, and 3 of the 9 species of Lambis, representing 2 of 3 extant subgenera. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of COI and of H3 and COI combined suggest Lambis is nested within a paraphyletic Strombus. Eastern Pacific and western Atlantic species of Strombus form a relatively recent monophyletic radiation within an older, paraphyletic Indo-West Pacific grade. Morphological diversity of subclades scales positively with species richness but does not show evidence of strong phylogenetic constraints. PMID:16839783

  7. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

  8. Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa.

    PubMed

    Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

    2016-01-01

    HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869-1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867-1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization. PMID:27100294

  9. Phylogenetic Analysis and Epidemic History of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 2 in Tunisia, North Africa

    PubMed Central

    Rajhi, Mouna; Ghedira, Kais; Chouikha, Anissa; Djebbi, Ahlem; Cheikh, Imed; Ben Yahia, Ahlem; Sadraoui, Amel; Hammami, Walid; Azouz, Msaddek; Ben Mami, Nabil; Triki, Henda

    2016-01-01

    HCV genotype 2 (HCV-2) has a worldwide distribution with prevalence rates that vary from country to country. High genetic diversity and long-term endemicity were suggested in West African countries. A global dispersal of HCV-2 would have occurred during the 20th century, especially in European countries. In Tunisia, genotype 2 was the second prevalent genotype after genotype 1 and most isolates belong to subtypes 2c and 2k. In this study, phylogenetic analyses based on the NS5B genomic sequences of 113 Tunisian HCV isolates from subtypes 2c and 2k were carried out. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin and the spread of these subtypes circulating in Tunisia. Phylogenetic analyses of HCV-2c sequences suggest the absence of country-specific or time-specific variants. In contrast, the phylogenetic grouping of HCV-2k sequences shows the existence of two major genetic clusters that may represent two distinct circulating variants. Coalescent analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of Tunisian HCV-2c around 1886 (1869–1902) before the introduction of HCV-2k in 1901 (1867–1931). Our findings suggest that the introduction of HCV-2c in Tunisia is possibly a result of population movements between Tunisia and European population following the French colonization. PMID:27100294

  10. Phylogenetic analysis of Ostreococcus virus sequences from the Patagonian Coast.

    PubMed

    Manrique, Julieta M; Calvo, Andrea Y; Jones, Leandro R

    2012-10-01

    A phylogenetic analysis of new Ostreococcus virus (OV) sequences from the Patagonian Coast, Argentina, and homologous sequences from public databases was performed. This analysis showed that the Patagonian sequences represented a divergent viral clade and that the rest of OV sequences analyzed here were clustered into six additional phylogenetic groups. Analyses of 18S gene libraries supported a close relationship of the Patagonian Ostreococcus host with clade A sequences described elsewhere, corroborating previous studies indicating that clade A strains are ubiquitous. Besides the Patagonian OV sequences, several phylogenetic groupings were linked to particular geographic locations, suggesting a role for allopatric cladogenesis in viral diversification. However, and in agreement with previous observations, other viral lineages included sequences with diverse geographic origins. These findings, together with analyses of ancestral trait trajectories performed here, are consistent with an evolutionary dynamics in which geographical isolation has a role in OV diversification but can be followed by rapid dispersion to remote places. PMID:22674355

  11. Bayesian networks as a tool for epidemiological systems analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, F. I.

    2012-11-01

    Bayesian network analysis is a form of probabilistic modeling which derives from empirical data a directed acyclic graph (DAG) describing the dependency structure between random variables. Bayesian networks are increasingly finding application in areas such as computational and systems biology, and more recently in epidemiological analyses. The key distinction between standard empirical modeling approaches, such as generalised linear modeling, and Bayesian network analyses is that the latter attempts not only to identify statistically associated variables, but to additionally, and empirically, separate these into those directly and indirectly dependent with one or more outcome variables. Such discrimination is vastly more ambitious but has the potential to reveal far more about key features of complex disease systems. Applying Bayesian network modeling to biological and medical data has considerable computational demands, combined with the need to ensure robust model selection given the vast model space of possible DAGs. These challenges require the use of approximation techniques, such as the Laplace approximation, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and parametric bootstrapping, along with computational parallelization. A case study in structure discovery - identification of an optimal DAG for given data - is presented which uses additive Bayesian networks to explore veterinary disease data of industrial and medical relevance.

  12. On Bayesian analysis of on-off measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nosek, Dalibor; Nosková, Jana

    2016-06-01

    We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a consistent way. We use a large enough family of prior distributions of relevant parameters. The proposed analysis is designed to provide Bayesian solutions that can be used for any number of observed on-off events, including zero. The procedure is checked using Monte Carlo simulations. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated on examples from γ-ray astronomy.

  13. A Comparison of Imputation Methods for Bayesian Factor Analysis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.

    2011-01-01

    Imputation methods are popular for the handling of missing data in psychology. The methods generally consist of predicting missing data based on observed data, yielding a complete data set that is amiable to standard statistical analyses. In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, this article compares imputation under an unrestricted…

  14. Phylogenetic analysis of anaerobic thermophilic bacteria: aid for their reclassification.

    PubMed Central

    Rainey, F A; Ward, N L; Morgan, H W; Toalster, R; Stackebrandt, E

    1993-01-01

    Small subunit rDNA sequences were determined for 20 species of the genera Acetogenium, Clostridium, Thermoanaerobacter, Thermoanaerobacterium, Thermoanaerobium, and Thermobacteroides, 3 non-validly described species, and 5 isolates of anaerobic thermophilic bacteria, providing a basis for a phylogenetic analysis of these organisms. Several species contain a version of the molecule significantly longer than that of Escherichia coli because of the presence of inserts. On the basis of normal evolutionary distances, the phylogenetic tree indicates that all bacteria investigated in this study with a maximum growth temperature above 65 degrees C form a supercluster within the subphylum of gram-positive bacteria that also contains Clostridium thermosaccharolyticum and Clostridium thermoaceticum, which have been previously sequenced. This supercluster appears to be equivalent in its phylogenetic depth to the supercluster of mesophilic clostridia and their nonspore-forming relatives. Several phylogenetically and phenotypically coherent clusters that are defined by sets of signature nucleotides emerge within the supercluster of thermophiles. Clostridium thermobutyricum and Clostridium thermopalmarium are members of Clostridium group I. A phylogenetic tree derived from transversion distances demonstrated the artificial clustering of some organisms with high rDNA G+C moles percent, i.e., Clostridium fervidus and the thermophilic, cellulolytic members of the genus Clostridium. The results of this study can be used as an aid for future taxonomic restructuring of anaerobic sporogenous and asporogenous thermophillic, gram-positive bacteria. PMID:7687600

  15. A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

    2013-01-01

    One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or "one-shot," in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we…

  16. Phylogenetic Analysis of West Nile Virus, Nuevo Leon State, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Blitvich, Bradley J.; Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso; Contreras-Cordero, Juan F.; Loroño-Pino, María A.; Marlenee, Nicole L.; Díaz, Francisco J.; González-Rojas, José I.; Obregón-Martínez, Nelson; Chiu-García, Jorge A.; Black, William C.

    2004-01-01

    West Nile virus RNA was detected in brain tissue from a horse that died in June 2003 in Nuevo Leon State, Mexico. Nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the premembrane and envelope genes showed that the virus was most closely related to West Nile virus isolates collected in Texas in 2002. PMID:15324558

  17. Phylogenetic analysis on the soil bacteria distributed in karst forest

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, JunPei; Huang, Ying; Mo, MingHe

    2009-01-01

    Phylogenetic composition of bacterial community in soil of a karst forest was analyzed by culture-independent molecular approach. The bacterial 16S rRNA gene was amplified directly from soil DNA and cloned to generate a library. After screening the clone library by RFLP, 16S rRNA genes of representative clones were sequenced and the bacterial community was analyzed phylogenetically. The 16S rRNA gene inserts of 190 clones randomly selected were analyzed by RFLP and generated 126 different RFLP types. After sequencing, 126 non-chimeric sequences were obtained, generating 113 phylotypes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the bacteria distributed in soil of the karst forest included the members assigning into Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Planctomycetes, Chloroflexi (Green nonsulfur bacteria), Bacteroidetes, Verrucomicrobia, Nitrospirae, Actinobacteria (High G+C Gram-positive bacteria), Firmicutes (Low G+C Gram-positive bacteria) and candidate divisions (including the SPAM and GN08). PMID:24031430

  18. Simultaneous Bayesian analysis of contingency tables in genetic association studies.

    PubMed

    Dickhaus, Thorsten

    2015-08-01

    Genetic association studies lead to simultaneous categorical data analysis. The sample for every genetic locus consists of a contingency table containing the numbers of observed genotype-phenotype combinations. Under case-control design, the row counts of every table are identical and fixed, while column counts are random. The aim of the statistical analysis is to test independence of the phenotype and the genotype at every locus. We present an objective Bayesian methodology for these association tests, which relies on the conjugacy of Dirichlet and multinomial distributions. Being based on the likelihood principle, the Bayesian tests avoid looping over all tables with given marginals. Making use of data generated by The Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we illustrate that the ordering of the Bayes factors shows a good agreement with that of frequentist p-values. Furthermore, we deal with specifying prior probabilities for the validity of the null hypotheses, by taking linkage disequilibrium structure into account and exploiting the concept of effective numbers of tests. Application of a Bayesian decision theoretic multiple test procedure to the WTCCC data illustrates the proposed methodology. Finally, we discuss two methods for reconciling frequentist and Bayesian approaches to the multiple association test problem. PMID:26215535

  19. Fusarium culmorum is a single phylogenetic species based on multilocus sequence analysis.

    PubMed

    Obanor, Friday; Erginbas-Orakci, G; Tunali, B; Nicol, J M; Chakraborty, S

    2010-09-01

    Fusarium culmorum is a major pathogen of wheat and barley causing head blight and crown rot in cooler temperate climates of Australia, Europe, West Asia and North Africa. To better understand its evolutionary history we partially sequenced single copy nuclear genes encoding translation elongation factor 1-α (TEF), reductase (RED) and phosphate permease (PHO) in 100 F. culmorum isolates with 11 isolates of Fusarium crookwellense, Fusarium graminearum and Fusarium pseudograminearum. Phylogenetic analysis of multilocus sequence (MLS) data using Bayesian inference and maximum parsimony analysis showed that F. culmorum from wheat is a single phylogenetic species with no significant linkage disequilibrium and little or no lineage development along geographic origin. Both MLS and TEF and RED gene sequence analysis separated the four Fusarium species used and delineated three to four groups within the F. culmorum clade. But the PHO gene could not completely resolve isolates into their respective species. Fixation index and gene flow suggest significant genetic exchange between the isolates from distant geographic regions. A lack of strong lineage structure despite the geographic separation of the three collections indicates a frequently recombining species and/or widespread distribution of genotypes due to international trade, tourism and long-range dispersal of macroconidia. Moreover, the two mating type genes were present in equal proportion among the F. culmorum collection used in this study, leaving open the possibility of sexual reproduction. PMID:20943185

  20. Mitochondrial DNA Genomes Organization and Phylogenetic Relationships Analysis of Eight Anemonefishes (Pomacentridae: Amphiprioninae)

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jianlong; Chen, Xiao; Kang, Bin; Liu, Min

    2015-01-01

    Anemonefishes (Pomacentridae Amphiprioninae) are a group of 30 valid coral reef fish species with their phylogenetic relationships still under debate. The eight available mitogenomes of anemonefishes were used to reconstruct the molecular phylogenetic tree; six were obtained from this study (Amphiprion clarkii, A. frenatus, A. percula, A. perideraion, A. polymnus and Premnas biaculeatus) and two from GenBank (A. bicinctus and A. ocellaris). The seven Amphiprion species represent all four subgenera and P. biaculeatus is the only species from Premnas. The eight mitogenomes of anemonefishes encoded 13 protein-coding genes, two rRNA genes, 22 tRNA genes and two main non-coding regions, with the gene arrangement and translation direction basically identical to other typical vertebrate mitogenomes. Among the 13 protein-coding genes, A. ocellaris (AP006017) and A. percula (KJ174497) had the same length in ND5 with 1,866 bp, which were three nucleotides less than the other six anemonefishes. Both structures of ND5, however, could translate to amino acid successfully. Only four mitogenomes had the tandem repeats in D-loop; the tandem repeats were located in downstream after Conserved Sequence Block rather than the upstream and repeated in a simply way. The phylogenetic utility was tested with Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood methods using all 13 protein-coding genes. The results strongly supported that the subfamily Amphiprioninae was monophyletic and P. biaculeatus should be assigned to the genus Amphiprion. Premnas biaculeatus with the percula complex were revealed to be the ancient anemonefish species. The tree forms of ND1, COIII, ND4, Cytb, Cytb+12S rRNA, Cytb+COI and Cytb+COI+12S rRNA were similar to that 13 protein-coding genes, therefore, we suggested that the suitable single mitochondrial gene for phylogenetic analysis of anemonefishes maybe Cytb. Additional mitogenomes of anemonefishes with a combination of nuclear markers will be useful to substantiate these

  1. Multiple quantitative trait analysis using bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Scutari, Marco; Howell, Phil; Balding, David J; Mackay, Ian

    2014-09-01

    Models for genome-wide prediction and association studies usually target a single phenotypic trait. However, in animal and plant genetics it is common to record information on multiple phenotypes for each individual that will be genotyped. Modeling traits individually disregards the fact that they are most likely associated due to pleiotropy and shared biological basis, thus providing only a partial, confounded view of genetic effects and phenotypic interactions. In this article we use data from a Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross (MAGIC) winter wheat population to explore Bayesian networks as a convenient and interpretable framework for the simultaneous modeling of multiple quantitative traits. We show that they are equivalent to multivariate genetic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and that they are competitive with single-trait elastic net and single-trait GBLUP in predictive performance. Finally, we discuss their relationship with other additive-effects models and their advantages in inference and interpretation. MAGIC populations provide an ideal setting for this kind of investigation because the very low population structure and large sample size result in predictive models with good power and limited confounding due to relatedness. PMID:25236454

  2. Multimodel Bayesian analysis of groundwater data worth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Liang; Zhang, Dongxiao; Guadagnini, Alberto; Neuman, Shlomo P.

    2014-11-01

    We explore the way in which uncertain descriptions of aquifer heterogeneity and groundwater flow impact one's ability to assess the worth of collecting additional data. We do so on the basis of Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging (MLBMA) by accounting jointly for uncertainties in geostatistical and flow model structures and parameter (hydraulic conductivity) as well as system state (hydraulic head) estimates, given uncertain measurements of one or both variables. Previous description of our approach was limited to geostatistical models based solely on hydraulic conductivity data. Here we implement the approach on a synthetic example of steady state flow in a two-dimensional random log hydraulic conductivity field with and without recharge by embedding an inverse stochastic moment solution of groundwater flow in MLBMA. A moment-equations-based geostatistical inversion method is utilized to circumvent the need for computationally expensive numerical Monte Carlo simulations. The approach is compatible with either deterministic or stochastic flow models and consistent with modern statistical methods of parameter estimation, admitting but not requiring prior information about the parameters. It allows but does not require approximating lead predictive statistical moments of system states by linearization while updating model posterior probabilities and parameter estimates on the basis of potential new data both before and after such data are actually collected.

  3. Empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler: a tool for incorporating radiocarbon-date and calibration error into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA.

    PubMed

    Molak, Martyna; Suchard, Marc A; Ho, Simon Y W; Beilman, David W; Shapiro, Beth

    2015-01-01

    Studies of DNA from ancient samples provide a valuable opportunity to gain insight into past evolutionary and demographic processes. Bayesian phylogenetic methods can estimate evolutionary rates and timescales from ancient DNA sequences, with the ages of the samples acting as calibrations for the molecular clock. Sample ages are often estimated using radiocarbon dating, but the associated measurement error is rarely taken into account. In addition, the total uncertainty quantified by converting radiocarbon dates to calendar dates is typically ignored. Here, we present a tool for incorporating both of these sources of uncertainty into Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. This empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) integrates the age uncertainty for each ancient sequence over the calibrated probability density function estimated for its radiocarbon date and associated error. We use the ECRS to analyse three ancient DNA data sets. Accounting for radiocarbon-dating and calibration error appeared to have little impact on estimates of evolutionary rates and related parameters for these data sets. However, analyses of other data sets, particularly those with few or only very old radiocarbon dates, might be more sensitive to using artificially precise sample ages and should benefit from use of the ECRS. PMID:24964386

  4. A deliberate practice approach to teaching phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Hobbs, F Collin; Johnson, Daniel J; Kearns, Katherine D

    2013-01-01

    One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or "one-shot," in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we designed a set of five assignments for a 300-level plant systematics course that incrementally introduces the concepts and skills used in phylogenetic analysis. In our assignments, students learned the process of constructing phylogenetic trees through a series of increasingly difficult tasks; thus, skill development served as a framework for building content knowledge. We present results from 5 yr of final exam scores, pre- and postconcept assessments, and student surveys to assess the impact of our new pedagogical materials on student performance related to constructing and interpreting phylogenetic trees. Students improved in their ability to interpret relationships within trees and improved in several aspects related to between-tree comparisons and tree construction skills. Student feedback indicated that most students believed our approach prepared them to engage in tree construction and gave them confidence in their abilities. Overall, our data confirm that instructional approaches implementing deliberate practice address student misconceptions, improve student experiences, and foster deeper understanding of difficult scientific concepts. PMID:24297294

  5. A Deliberate Practice Approach to Teaching Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hobbs, F. Collin; Johnson, Daniel J.; Kearns, Katherine D.

    2013-01-01

    One goal of postsecondary education is to assist students in developing expert-level understanding. Previous attempts to encourage expert-level understanding of phylogenetic analysis in college science classrooms have largely focused on isolated, or “one-shot,” in-class activities. Using a deliberate practice instructional approach, we designed a set of five assignments for a 300-level plant systematics course that incrementally introduces the concepts and skills used in phylogenetic analysis. In our assignments, students learned the process of constructing phylogenetic trees through a series of increasingly difficult tasks; thus, skill development served as a framework for building content knowledge. We present results from 5 yr of final exam scores, pre- and postconcept assessments, and student surveys to assess the impact of our new pedagogical materials on student performance related to constructing and interpreting phylogenetic trees. Students improved in their ability to interpret relationships within trees and improved in several aspects related to between-tree comparisons and tree construction skills. Student feedback indicated that most students believed our approach prepared them to engage in tree construction and gave them confidence in their abilities. Overall, our data confirm that instructional approaches implementing deliberate practice address student misconceptions, improve student experiences, and foster deeper understanding of difficult scientific concepts. PMID:24297294

  6. Molecular Phylogenetic Analysis of Infidum similis, Including Morphological Data and Estimation of its Genome Size.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Salazar, Elizabeth A; Rosas-Valdez, Rogelio; Gregory, T Ryan; Violante-González, Juan

    2016-08-01

    :   Infidum similis Travassos, 1916 (Dicrocoeliidae: Leipertrematinae) was found in the gall bladder of Leptophis diplotropis Günther, 1872 from El Podrido, Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. A phylogenetic analysis based on partial sequences of the 28S ribosomal RNA using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) analyses was carried out to assess its phylogenetic position within suborder Xiphidiata, alongside members of the superfamilies Gorgoderoidea and Plagiorchoidea. The phylogenetic trees showed that the genus is most-closely related to the Plagiorchoidea rather than to the Gorgoderoidea, in keeping with previous taxonomic designations. Phylogenies obtained from ML and BI analysis of the 28S rDNA gene revealed a well supported clade in which Choledocystus hepaticus (Lutz, 1928) Sullivan, 1977 is sister to I. similis. On the other hand, a tree obtained using a partial sequence of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mtDNA gene (ML and BI analysis), with species supposed to be closely related to I. similis according to 28S, does not support this relatedness. Based on the independence of Infidum from the subfamily Leipertrematinae Yamaguti, 1958 , our results clearly demonstrated that the genus corresponds to a different family and with species closely related to C. hepaticus within Plagiorchoidea. New data are presented about the tegumental surface of I. similis by scanning electron microscopy as well as the estimation of its haploid genome size using Feulgen Image Analysis Densitometry of sperm nuclei as part of the characterization of this species. This is the first genome size estimated for a member of Plagiorchiida, and these data will provide a new source of knowledge on helminth diversity and evolutionary studies. This constitutes the first host record, and new geographical distribution, for this species in Mexico. PMID:26998629

  7. Phylogenetic analysis of the endoribonuclease Dicer family.

    PubMed

    Gao, Zeqian; Wang, Miao; Blair, David; Zheng, Yadong; Dou, Yongxi

    2014-01-01

    Dicers are proteins of the ribonuclease III family with the ability to process dsRNA, involved in regulation of gene expression at the post-transcriptional level. Dicers are conserved from basal metazoans to higher metazoans and contain a number of functional domains that interact with dsRNA. The completed genome sequences of over 34 invertebrate species allowed us to systematically investigate Dicer genes over a diverse range of phyla. The majority of invertebrate Dicers clearly fell into the Dicer1 or Dicer2 subfamilies. Most nematodes possessed only one Dicer gene, a member of the Dicer1 subfamily, whereas two Dicer genes (Dicer1 and Dicer2) were present in all platyhelminths surveyed. Analysis of the key domains showed that a 5' pocket was conserved across members of the Dicer1 subfamily, with the exception of the nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. Interestingly, Nematostella vectensis DicerB grouped into Dicer2 subfamily harbored a 5' pocket, which is commonly present in Dicer1. Similarly, the 3' pocket was also found to be conserved in all Dicer proteins with the exceptions of Schmidtea mediterranea Dicer2 and Trichoplax adherens Dicer A. The loss of catalytic residues in the RNase III domain was noted in platyhelminths and cnidarians, and the 'ball' and 'socket' junction between two RNase III domains in platyhelminth Dicers was different from the canonical junction, suggesting the possibility of different conformations. The present data suggest that Dicers might have duplicated and diversified independently, and have evolved for various functions in invertebrates. PMID:24748168

  8. An Overview of Bayesian Methods for Neural Spike Train Analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Neural spike train analysis is an important task in computational neuroscience which aims to understand neural mechanisms and gain insights into neural circuits. With the advancement of multielectrode recording and imaging technologies, it has become increasingly demanding to develop statistical tools for analyzing large neuronal ensemble spike activity. Here we present a tutorial overview of Bayesian methods and their representative applications in neural spike train analysis, at both single neuron and population levels. On the theoretical side, we focus on various approximate Bayesian inference techniques as applied to latent state and parameter estimation. On the application side, the topics include spike sorting, tuning curve estimation, neural encoding and decoding, deconvolution of spike trains from calcium imaging signals, and inference of neuronal functional connectivity and synchrony. Some research challenges and opportunities for neural spike train analysis are discussed. PMID:24348527

  9. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Endoribonuclease Dicer Family

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Zeqian; Wang, Miao; Blair, David; Zheng, Yadong; Dou, Yongxi

    2014-01-01

    Dicers are proteins of the ribonuclease III family with the ability to process dsRNA, involved in regulation of gene expression at the post-transcriptional level. Dicers are conserved from basal metazoans to higher metazoans and contain a number of functional domains that interact with dsRNA. The completed genome sequences of over 34 invertebrate species allowed us to systematically investigate Dicer genes over a diverse range of phyla. The majority of invertebrate Dicers clearly fell into the Dicer1 or Dicer2 subfamilies. Most nematodes possessed only one Dicer gene, a member of the Dicer1 subfamily, whereas two Dicer genes (Dicer1 and Dicer2) were present in all platyhelminths surveyed. Analysis of the key domains showed that a 5′ pocket was conserved across members of the Dicer1 subfamily, with the exception of the nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. Interestingly, Nematostella vectensis DicerB grouped into Dicer2 subfamily harbored a 5′ pocket, which is commonly present in Dicer1. Similarly, the 3′ pocket was also found to be conserved in all Dicer proteins with the exceptions of Schmidtea mediterranea Dicer2 and Trichoplax adherens Dicer A. The loss of catalytic residues in the RNase III domain was noted in platyhelminths and cnidarians, and the ‘ball’ and ‘socket’ junction between two RNase III domains in platyhelminth Dicers was different from the canonical junction, suggesting the possibility of different conformations. The present data suggest that Dicers might have duplicated and diversified independently, and have evolved for various functions in invertebrates. PMID:24748168

  10. Structure-Based Phylogenetic Analysis of the Lipocalin Superfamily

    PubMed Central

    Lakshmi, Balasubramanian; Mishra, Madhulika; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy; Archunan, Govindaraju

    2015-01-01

    Lipocalins constitute a superfamily of extracellular proteins that are found in all three kingdoms of life. Although very divergent in their sequences and functions, they show remarkable similarity in 3-D structures. Lipocalins bind and transport small hydrophobic molecules. Earlier sequence-based phylogenetic studies of lipocalins highlighted that they have a long evolutionary history. However the molecular and structural basis of their functional diversity is not completely understood. The main objective of the present study is to understand functional diversity of the lipocalins using a structure-based phylogenetic approach. The present study with 39 protein domains from the lipocalin superfamily suggests that the clusters of lipocalins obtained by structure-based phylogeny correspond well with the functional diversity. The detailed analysis on each of the clusters and sub-clusters reveals that the 39 lipocalin domains cluster based on their mode of ligand binding though the clustering was performed on the basis of gross domain structure. The outliers in the phylogenetic tree are often from single member families. Also structure-based phylogenetic approach has provided pointers to assign putative function for the domains of unknown function in lipocalin family. The approach employed in the present study can be used in the future for the functional identification of new lipocalin proteins and may be extended to other protein families where members show poor sequence similarity but high structural similarity. PMID:26263546

  11. Molecular Epidemiology and Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Adenovirus Caused an Outbreak in Taiwan during 2011

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yung-Cheng; Lu, Po-Liang; Lin, Kuei-Hsiang; Chu, Pei-Yu; Wang, Chu-Feng; Lin, Jih-Hui; Liu, Hsin-Fu

    2015-01-01

    An outbreak of adenovirus has been surveyed in Taiwan in 2011. To better understand the evolution and epidemiology of adenovirus in Taiwan, full-length sequence of hexon and fiber coapsid protein was analyzed using series of phylogenetic and dynamic evolution tools. Six different serotypes were identified in this outbreak and the species B was predominant (HAdV-3, 71.50%; HAdV-7, 15.46%). The most frequent diagnosis was acute tonsillitis (54.59%) and bronchitis (47.83%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that hexon protein gene sequences were highly conserved for HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 circulation in Taiwan. However, comparison of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and phylogenetic trees of fiber gene in HAdV-7 clearly indicated that the predominant genotype in Taiwan has shifted from 7b to 7d. Several positive selection sites were observed in hexon protein. The estimated nucleotide substitution rates of hexon protein of HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 were 0.234×10-3 substitutions/site/year (95% HPD: 0.387~0.095×10-3) and 1.107×10-3 (95% HPD: 0. 541~1.604) respectively; those of the fiber protein of HAdV-3 and HAdV-7 were 1.085×10-3 (95% HPD: 1.767~0.486) and 0.132×10-3 (95% HPD: 0.283~0.014) respectively. Phylodynamic analysis by Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) suggested that using individual gene to evaluate the effective population size might possibly cause miscalculation. In summary, the virus evolution is ongoing, and continuous surveillance of this virus evolution will contribute to the control of the epidemic. PMID:25992619

  12. Phylogenetic and Recombination Analysis of Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Jisuk; Kim, Mi-Kyeong; Choi, Hong-Soo; Kim, Kook-Hyung

    2013-01-01

    Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) severely damages and reduces the yield of many economically important plants worldwide. In this study, we determined the whole-genome sequences of 10 TSWV isolates recently identified from various regions and hosts in Korea. Phylogenetic analysis of these 10 isolates as well as the three previously sequenced isolates indicated that the 13 Korean TSWV isolates could be divided into two groups reflecting either two different origins or divergences of Korean TSWV isolates. In addition, the complete nucleotide sequences for the 13 Korean TSWV isolates along with previously sequenced TSWV RNA segments from Korea and other countries were subjected to phylogenetic and recombination analysis. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that both the RNA L and RNA M segments of most Korean isolates might have originated in Western Europe and North America but that the RNA S segments for all Korean isolates might have originated in China and Japan. Recombination analysis identified a total of 12 recombination events among all isolates and segments and five recombination events among the 13 Korea isolates; among the five recombinants from Korea, three contained the whole RNA L segment, suggesting reassortment rather than recombination. Our analyses provide evidence that both recombination and reassortment have contributed to the molecular diversity of TSWV. PMID:23696821

  13. Bayesian Shrinkage Analysis of Quantitative Trait Loci for Dynamic Traits

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Runqing; Xu, Shizhong

    2007-01-01

    Many quantitative traits are measured repeatedly during the life of an organism. Such traits are called dynamic traits. The pattern of the changes of a dynamic trait is called the growth trajectory. Studying the growth trajectory may enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of the growth trajectory. Recently, we developed an interval-mapping procedure to map QTL for dynamic traits under the maximum-likelihood framework. We fit the growth trajectory by Legendre polynomials. The method intended to map one QTL at a time and the entire QTL analysis involved scanning the entire genome by fitting multiple single-QTL models. In this study, we propose a Bayesian shrinkage analysis for estimating and mapping multiple QTL in a single model. The method is a combination between the shrinkage mapping for individual quantitative traits and the Legendre polynomial analysis for dynamic traits. The multiple-QTL model is implemented in two ways: (1) a fixed-interval approach where a QTL is placed in each marker interval and (2) a moving-interval approach where the position of a QTL can be searched in a range that covers many marker intervals. Simulation study shows that the Bayesian shrinkage method generates much better signals for QTL than the interval-mapping approach. We propose several alternative methods to present the results of the Bayesian shrinkage analysis. In particular, we found that the Wald test-statistic profile can serve as a mechanism to test the significance of a putative QTL. PMID:17435239

  14. Bayesian Variable Selection in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Negrín, Miguel A.; Vázquez-Polo, Francisco J.; Martel, María; Moreno, Elías; Girón, Francisco J.

    2010-01-01

    Linear regression models are often used to represent the cost and effectiveness of medical treatment. The covariates used may include sociodemographic variables, such as age, gender or race; clinical variables, such as initial health status, years of treatment or the existence of concomitant illnesses; and a binary variable indicating the treatment received. However, most studies estimate only one model, which usually includes all the covariates. This procedure ignores the question of uncertainty in model selection. In this paper, we examine four alternative Bayesian variable selection methods that have been proposed. In this analysis, we estimate the inclusion probability of each covariate in the real model conditional on the data. Variable selection can be useful for estimating incremental effectiveness and incremental cost, through Bayesian model averaging, as well as for subgroup analysis. PMID:20617047

  15. Bayesian Analysis Toolkit: 1.0 and beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaujean, Frederik; Caldwell, Allen; Greenwald, D.; Kluth, S.; Kröninger, Kevin; Schulz, O.

    2015-12-01

    The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit is a C++ package centered around Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. It is used in high-energy physics analyses by experimentalists and theorists alike. The software has matured over the last few years. We present new features to enter version 1.0, then summarize some of the software-engineering lessons learned and give an outlook on future versions.

  16. Phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis of Neisseria meningitidis using DNA probes.

    PubMed Central

    Ni, H.; Knight, A. I.; Cartwright, K. A.; McFadden, J. J.

    1992-01-01

    The genetic relationships between various serotypes and serogroups of meningococcal strains were investigated by restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis using a number of random DNA probes and a probe containing a truncated copy of the meningococcal insertion sequence IS1106. The data were used to estimate genetic distance between all pairs of strains and to construct phylogenetic trees for meningococcal strains. B15:P1.16R strains isolated from cases of systemic meningococcal disease in two health districts with a high incidence of disease were clonal in contrast to similar strains from cases occurring in other parts of the UK. Strains from these areas, which contain a similar genomic deletion, were found to be derived from two distinct lineages within the B15:P1.16R phylogenetic group. RFLP data demonstrated that present serological typing systems for the meningococcus do not necessarily reflect true genetic relationships. Images Fig. 1 PMID:1356820

  17. Endometriosis Gene Expression Heterogeneity and Biosignature: A Phylogenetic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Asab, Mones; Zhang, Ming; Amini, Dennis; Abu-Asab, Nihad; Amri, Hakima

    2011-01-01

    Endometriosis is a multifactorial disease with poorly understood etiology, and reflecting an evolutionary nature where genetic alterations accumulate throughout pathogenesis. Our objective was to characterize the heterogeneous pathological process using parsimony phylogenetics. Gene expression microarray data of ovarian endometriosis obtained from NCBI database were polarized and coded into derived (abnormal) and ancestral (normal) states. Such alterations are referred to as synapomorphies in a phylogenetic sense (or biomarkers). Subsequent gene linkage was modeled by Genomatix BiblioSphere Pathway software. A list of clonally shared derived (abnormal) expressions revealed the pattern of heterogeneity among specimens. In addition, it has identified disruptions within the major regulatory pathways including those involved in cell proliferation, steroidogenesis, angiogenesis, cytoskeletal organization and integrity, and tumorigenesis, as well as cell adhesion and migration. Furthermore, the analysis supported the potential central involvement of ESR2 in the initiation of endometriosis. The pathogenesis mapping showed that eutopic and ectopic lesions have different molecular biosignatures. PMID:22203846

  18. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE HARMONIC OSCILLATIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA

    SciTech Connect

    Arregui, I.; Asensio Ramos, A.; Diaz, A. J.

    2013-03-01

    The detection of multiple mode harmonic kink oscillations in coronal loops enables us to obtain information on coronal density stratification and magnetic field expansion using seismology inversion techniques. The inference is based on the measurement of the period ratio between the fundamental mode and the first overtone and theoretical results for the period ratio under the hypotheses of coronal density stratification and magnetic field expansion of the wave guide. We present a Bayesian analysis of multiple mode harmonic oscillations for the inversion of the density scale height and magnetic flux tube expansion under each of the hypotheses. The two models are then compared using a Bayesian model comparison scheme to assess how plausible each one is given our current state of knowledge.

  19. [A phylogenetic analysis of plant communities of Teberda Biosphere Reserve].

    PubMed

    Shulakov, A A; Egorov, A V; Onipchenko, V G

    2016-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of communities is based on the comparison of distances on the phylogenetic tree between species of a community under study and those distances in random samples taken out of local flora. It makes it possible to determine to what extent a community composition is formed by more closely related species (i.e., "clustered") or, on the opposite, it is more even and includes species that are less related with each other. The first case is usually interpreted as a result of strong influence caused by abiotic factors, due to which species with similar ecology, a priori more closely related, would remain: In the second case, biotic factors, such as competition, may come to the fore and lead to forming a community out of distant clades due to divergence of their ecological niches: The aim of this' study Was Ad explore the phylogenetic structure in communities of the northwestern Caucasus at two spatial scales - the scale of area from 4 to 100 m2 and the smaller scale within a community. The list of local flora of the alpine belt has been composed using the database of geobotanic descriptions carried out in Teberda Biosphere Reserve at true altitudes exceeding.1800 m. It includes 585 species of flowering plants belonging to 57 families. Basal groups of flowering plants are.not represented in the list. At the scale of communities of three classes, namely Thlaspietea rotundifolii - commumties formed on screes and pebbles, Calluno-Ulicetea - alpine meadow, and Mulgedio-Aconitetea subalpine meadows, have not demonstrated significant distinction of phylogenetic structure. At intra level, for alpine meadows the larger share of closely related species. (clustered community) is detected. Significantly clustered happen to be those communities developing on rocks (class Asplenietea trichomanis) and alpine (class Juncetea trifidi). At the same time, alpine lichen proved to have even phylogenetic structure at the small scale. Alpine (class Salicetea herbaceae) that

  20. Phylogenetic analysis reveals a scattered distribution of autumn colours

    PubMed Central

    Archetti, Marco

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Leaf colour in autumn is rarely considered informative for taxonomy, but there is now growing interest in the evolution of autumn colours and different hypotheses are debated. Research efforts are hindered by the lack of basic information: the phylogenetic distribution of autumn colours. It is not known when and how autumn colours evolved. Methods Data are reported on the autumn colours of 2368 tree species belonging to 400 genera of the temperate regions of the world, and an analysis is made of their phylogenetic relationships in order to reconstruct the evolutionary origin of red and yellow in autumn leaves. Key Results Red autumn colours are present in at least 290 species (70 genera), and evolved independently at least 25 times. Yellow is present independently from red in at least 378 species (97 genera) and evolved at least 28 times. Conclusions The phylogenetic reconstruction suggests that autumn colours have been acquired and lost many times during evolution. This scattered distribution could be explained by hypotheses involving some kind of coevolutionary interaction or by hypotheses that rely on the need for photoprotection. PMID:19126636

  1. A phylogenetic analysis of the mycoplasmas: basis for their classification.

    PubMed Central

    Weisburg, W G; Tully, J G; Rose, D L; Petzel, J P; Oyaizu, H; Yang, D; Mandelco, L; Sechrest, J; Lawrence, T G; Van Etten, J

    1989-01-01

    Small-subunit rRNA sequences were determined for almost 50 species of mycoplasmas and their walled relatives, providing the basis for a phylogenetic systematic analysis of these organisms. Five groups of mycoplasmas per se were recognized (provisional names are given): the hominis group (which included species such as Mycoplasma hominis, Mycoplasma lipophilum, Mycoplasma pulmonis, and Mycoplasma neurolyticum), the pneumoniae group (which included species such as Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Mycoplasma muris), the spiroplasma group (which included species such as Mycoplasma mycoides, Spiroplasma citri, and Spiroplasma apis), the anaeroplasma group (which encompassed the anaeroplasmas and acholeplasmas), and a group known to contain only the isolated species Asteroleplasma anaerobium. In addition to these five mycoplasma groups, a sixth group of variously named gram-positive, walled organisms (which included lactobacilli, clostridia, and other organisms) was also included in the overall phylogenetic unit. In each of these six primary groups, subgroups were readily recognized and defined. Although the phylogenetic units identified by rRNA comparisons are difficult to recognize on the basis of mutually exclusive phenotypic characters alone, phenotypic justification can be given a posteriori for a number of them. PMID:2592342

  2. Phylogenetic and Ecological Analysis of Novel Marine Stramenopiles

    PubMed Central

    Massana, Ramon; Castresana, Jose; Balagué, Vanessa; Guillou, Laure; Romari, Khadidja; Groisillier, Agnès; Valentin, Klaus; Pedrós-Alió, Carlos

    2004-01-01

    Culture-independent molecular analyses of open-sea microorganisms have revealed the existence and apparent abundance of novel eukaryotic lineages, opening new avenues for phylogenetic, evolutionary, and ecological research. Novel marine stramenopiles, identified by 18S ribosomal DNA sequences within the basal part of the stramenopile radiation but unrelated to any previously known group, constituted one of the most important novel lineages in these open-sea samples. Here we carry out a comparative analysis of novel stramenopiles, including new sequences from coastal genetic libraries presented here and sequences from recent reports from the open ocean and marine anoxic sites. Novel stramenopiles were found in all major habitats, generally accounting for a significant proportion of clones in genetic libraries. Phylogenetic analyses indicated the existence of 12 independent clusters. Some of these were restricted to anoxic or deep-sea environments, but the majority were typical components of coastal and open-sea waters. We specifically identified four clusters that were well represented in most marine surface waters (together they accounted for 74% of the novel stramenopile clones) and are the obvious targets for future research. Many sequences were retrieved from geographically distant regions, indicating that some organisms were cosmopolitan. Our study expands our knowledge on the phylogenetic diversity and distribution of novel marine stramenopiles and confirms that they are fundamental members of the marine eukaryotic picoplankton. PMID:15184153

  3. Detection and phylogenetic analysis of bacteriophage WO in spiders (Araneae).

    PubMed

    Yan, Qian; Qiao, Huping; Gao, Jin; Yun, Yueli; Liu, Fengxiang; Peng, Yu

    2015-11-01

    Phage WO is a bacteriophage found in Wolbachia. Herein, we represent the first phylogenetic study of WOs that infect spiders (Araneae). Seven species of spiders (Araneus alternidens, Nephila clavata, Hylyphantes graminicola, Prosoponoides sinensis, Pholcus crypticolens, Coleosoma octomaculatum, and Nurscia albofasciata) from six families were infected by Wolbachia and WO, followed by comprehensive sequence analysis. Interestingly, WO could be only detected Wolbachia-infected spiders. The relative infection rates of those seven species of spiders were 75, 100, 88.9, 100, 62.5, 72.7, and 100 %, respectively. Our results indicated that both Wolbachia and WO were found in three different body parts of N. clavata, and WO could be passed to the next generation of H. graminicola by vertical transmission. There were three different sequences for WO infected in A. alternidens and two different WO sequences from C. octomaculatum. Only one sequence of WO was found for the other five species of spiders. The discovered sequence of WO ranged from 239 to 311 bp. Phylogenetic tree was generated using maximum likelihood (ML) based on the orf7 gene sequences. According to the phylogenetic tree, WOs in N. clavata and H. graminicola were clustered in the same group. WOs from A. alternidens (WAlt1) and C. octomaculatum (WOct2) were closely related to another clade, whereas WO in P. sinensis was classified as a sole cluster. PMID:25903547

  4. Two waves of diversification in mammals and reptiles of Baja California revealed by hierarchical Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Leaché, Adam D; Crews, Sarah C; Hickerson, Michael J

    2007-12-22

    Many species inhabiting the Peninsular Desert of Baja California demonstrate a phylogeographic break at the mid-peninsula, and previous researchers have attributed this shared pattern to a single vicariant event, a mid-peninsular seaway. However, previous studies have not explicitly considered the inherent stochasticity associated with the gene-tree coalescence for species preceding the time of the putative mid-peninsular divergence. We use a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical model to test for simultaneous vicariance across co-distributed sister lineages sharing a genealogical break at the mid-peninsula. This Bayesian method is advantageous over traditional phylogenetic interpretations of biogeography because it considers the genetic variance associated with the coalescent and mutational processes, as well as the among-lineage demographic differences that affect gene-tree coalescent patterns. Mitochondrial DNA data from six small mammals and six squamate reptiles do not support the perception of a shared vicariant history among lineages exhibiting a north-south divergence at the mid-peninsula, and instead support two events differentially structuring genetic diversity in this region. PMID:17698443

  5. On universal common ancestry, sequence similarity, and phylogenetic structure: the sins of P-values and the virtues of Bayesian evidence

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The universal common ancestry (UCA) of all known life is a fundamental component of modern evolutionary theory, supported by a wide range of qualitative molecular evidence. Nevertheless, recently both the status and nature of UCA has been questioned. In earlier work I presented a formal, quantitative test of UCA in which model selection criteria overwhelmingly choose common ancestry over independent ancestry, based on a dataset of universally conserved proteins. These model-based tests are founded in likelihoodist and Bayesian probability theory, in opposition to classical frequentist null hypothesis tests such as Karlin-Altschul E-values for sequence similarity. In a recent comment, Koonin and Wolf (K&W) claim that the model preference for UCA is "a trivial consequence of significant sequence similarity". They support this claim with a computational simulation, derived from universally conserved proteins, which produces similar sequences lacking phylogenetic structure. The model selection tests prefer common ancestry for this artificial data set. Results For the real universal protein sequences, hierarchical phylogenetic structure (induced by genealogical history) is the overriding reason for why the tests choose UCA; sequence similarity is a relatively minor factor. First, for cases of conflicting phylogenetic structure, the tests choose independent ancestry even with highly similar sequences. Second, certain models, like star trees and K&W's profile model (corresponding to their simulation), readily explain sequence similarity yet lack phylogenetic structure. However, these are extremely poor models for the real proteins, even worse than independent ancestry models, though they explain K&W's artificial data well. Finally, K&W's simulation is an implementation of a well-known phylogenetic model, and it produces sequences that mimic homologous proteins. Therefore the model selection tests work appropriately with the artificial data. Conclusions For K

  6. Risk analysis using a hybrid Bayesian-approximate reasoning methodology.

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.

    2001-01-01

    Analysts are sometimes asked to make frequency estimates for specific accidents in which the accident frequency is determined primarily by safety controls. Under these conditions, frequency estimates use considerable expert belief in determining how the controls affect the accident frequency. To evaluate and document beliefs about control effectiveness, we have modified a traditional Bayesian approach by using approximate reasoning (AR) to develop prior distributions. Our method produces accident frequency estimates that separately express the probabilistic results produced in Bayesian analysis and possibilistic results that reflect uncertainty about the prior estimates. Based on our experience using traditional methods, we feel that the AR approach better documents beliefs about the effectiveness of controls than if the beliefs are buried in Bayesian prior distributions. We have performed numerous expert elicitations in which probabilistic information was sought from subject matter experts not trained In probability. We find it rnuch easier to elicit the linguistic variables and fuzzy set membership values used in AR than to obtain the probability distributions used in prior distributions directly from these experts because it better captures their beliefs and better expresses their uncertainties.

  7. Spatiotemporal phylogenetic analysis and molecular characterization of coxsackievirus A4.

    PubMed

    Chu, Pei-Yu; Lu, Po-Liang; Tsai, Yu-Ling; Hsi, Edward; Yao, Ching-Yuan; Chen, Yu-Hsien; Hsu, Li-Ching; Wang, Sheng-Yu; Wu, Ho-Sheng; Lin, Yi-Ying; Su, Hui-Ju; Lin, Kuei-Hsiang

    2011-08-01

    Coxsackievirus A4 outbreaks occurred in Taiwan in 2004 and 2006. The spatiotemporal transmission of this error-prone RNA virus involves a continuous interaction between rapid sequence variation and natural selection. To elucidate the molecular characteristics of CV-A4 and the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in CV-A4 transmission, worldwide sequences of the 3' VP1 region (420 nt) obtained from GenBank were analyzed together with sequences isolated in Taiwan from 2002 to 2009. Sequences were characterized in terms of recombination, variability, and selection. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using neighbor-joining, maximum likelihood and Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. Spatiotemporal dynamics of CV-A4 transmission were further estimated by a Bayesian statistical inference framework. No recombination was detected in the 420 nt region. The estimated evolution rate of CV-A4 was 8.65 × 10(-3) substitutions/site/year, and a purifying selection (d(N)/d(S)=0.032) was noted over the 3' VP1 region. All trees had similar topology: two genotypes (GI and GII), each including two subgenotypes (A and B), with the prototype and a Kenyan strain in separate branches. The results revealed that the virus first appeared in USA in 1950. Since 1998, it has evolved into the Kenya, GI-A (Asia) and GII-A (Asia and Europe) strains. Since 2004, GI-B and GII-B have evolved continuously and have remained prevalent. The co-existence of several positive selection lineages of GI-B in 2006 indicates that the subgenotype might have survived lineage extinction. This study revealed rapid lineage turnover of CV-A4 and the replacement of previously circulating strains by a new dominant variant. Therefore, continuous surveillance for further CV-A4 transmission is essential. PMID:21635970

  8. Spectral Analysis of B Stars: An Application of Bayesian Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mugnes, J.-M.; Robert, C.

    2012-12-01

    To better understand the processes involved in stellar physics, it is necessary to obtain accurate stellar parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, abundances…). Spectral analysis is a powerful tool for investigating stars, but it is also vital to reduce uncertainties at a decent computational cost. Here we present a spectral analysis method based on a combination of Bayesian statistics and grids of synthetic spectra obtained with TLUSTY. This method simultaneously constrains the stellar parameters by using all the lines accessible in observed spectra and thus greatly reduces uncertainties and improves the overall spectrum fitting. Preliminary results are shown using spectra from the Observatoire du Mont-Mégantic.

  9. Computational Tools for Parsimony Phylogenetic Analysis of Omics Data.

    PubMed

    Salazar, Jose; Amri, Hakima; Noursi, David; Abu-Asab, Mones

    2015-08-01

    High-throughput assays from genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and next generation sequencing produce massive omics datasets that are challenging to analyze in biological or clinical contexts. Thus far, there is no publicly available program for converting quantitative omics data into input formats to be used in off-the-shelf robust phylogenetic programs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on creation of two Windows-based programs, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor, to address this gap. We note, as a way of introduction and development of these programs, that one particularly useful bioinformatics inferential modeling is the phylogenetic cladogram. Cladograms are multidimensional tools that show the relatedness between subgroups of healthy and diseased individuals and the latter's shared aberrations; they also reveal some characteristics of a disease that would not otherwise be apparent by other analytical methods. The OmicsTract and SynpExtractor were written for the respective tasks of (1) accommodating advanced phylogenetic parsimony analysis (through standard programs of MIX [from PHYLIP] and TNT), and (2) extracting shared aberrations at the cladogram nodes. OmicsTract converts comma-delimited data tables through assigning each data point into a binary value ("0" for normal states and "1" for abnormal states) then outputs the converted data tables into the proper input file formats for MIX or with embedded commands for TNT. SynapExtractor uses outfiles from MIX and TNT to extract the shared aberrations of each node of the cladogram, matching them with identifying labels from the dataset and exporting them into a comma-delimited file. Labels may be gene identifiers in gene-expression datasets or m/z values in mass spectrometry datasets. By automating these steps, OmicsTract and SynpExtractor offer a veritable opportunity for rapid and standardized phylogenetic analyses of omics data; their model can also be extended to next generation sequencing

  10. Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

    PubMed Central

    Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

  11. Bayesian sensitivity analysis of bifurcating nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, W.; Worden, K.; Rowson, J.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis allows one to investigate how changes in input parameters to a system affect the output. When computational expense is a concern, metamodels such as Gaussian processes can offer considerable computational savings over Monte Carlo methods, albeit at the expense of introducing a data modelling problem. In particular, Gaussian processes assume a smooth, non-bifurcating response surface. This work highlights a recent extension to Gaussian processes which uses a decision tree to partition the input space into homogeneous regions, and then fits separate Gaussian processes to each region. In this way, bifurcations can be modelled at region boundaries and different regions can have different covariance properties. To test this method, both the treed and standard methods were applied to the bifurcating response of a Duffing oscillator and a bifurcating FE model of a heart valve. It was found that the treed Gaussian process provides a practical way of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on large, potentially-bifurcating models, which cannot be dealt with by using a single GP, although an open problem remains how to manage bifurcation boundaries that are not parallel to coordinate axes.

  12. A phylogenetic analysis of macroevolutionary patterns in fermentative yeasts.

    PubMed

    Paleo-López, Rocío; Quintero-Galvis, Julian F; Solano-Iguaran, Jaiber J; Sanchez-Salazar, Angela M; Gaitan-Espitia, Juan D; Nespolo, Roberto F

    2016-06-01

    When novel sources of ecological opportunity are available, physiological innovations can trigger adaptive radiations. This could be the case of yeasts (Saccharomycotina), in which an evolutionary novelty is represented by the capacity to exploit simple sugars from fruits (fermentation). During adaptive radiations, diversification and morphological evolution are predicted to slow-down after early bursts of diversification. Here, we performed the first comparative phylogenetic analysis in yeasts, testing the "early burst" prediction on species diversification and also on traits of putative ecological relevance (cell-size and fermentation versatility). We found that speciation rates are constant during the time-range we considered (ca., 150 millions of years). Phylogenetic signal of both traits was significant (but lower for cell-size), suggesting that lineages resemble each other in trait-values. Disparity analysis suggested accelerated evolution (diversification in trait values above Brownian Motion expectations) in cell-size. We also found a significant phylogenetic regression between cell-size and fermentation versatility (R (2) = 0.10), which suggests correlated evolution between both traits. Overall, our results do not support the early burst prediction both in species and traits, but suggest a number of interesting evolutionary patterns, that warrant further exploration. For instance, we show that the Whole Genomic Duplication that affected a whole clade of yeasts, does not seems to have a statistically detectable phenotypic effect at our level of analysis. In this regard, further studies of fermentation under common-garden conditions combined with comparative analyses are warranted. PMID:27516851

  13. Problems and Cautions With Sequence Mismatch Analysis and Bayesian Skyline Plots to Infer Historical Demography.

    PubMed

    Grant, William Stewart

    2015-01-01

    Sequence mismatch analysis (MMA) and Bayesian skyline plots (BSP) are commonly used to reconstruct historical demography. A survey of 173 research articles (2009-2014), which included estimates of historical population sizes from mtDNA or cpDNA, shows a widespread genetic signature of demographic or spatial population expansion in species of all major taxonomic groups. Associating these expansions with climatic events can provide insights into the origins of lineage diversity, range expansions (or contractions), and speciation. However, several variables can introduce error into reconstructions of demographic history, including levels of sequence polymorphism, sampling scheme, sample size, natural selection, and estimates of mutation rate. Most researchers use substitution rates estimated from divergences in phylogenetic trees dated with fossils, or geological events. Recent studies show that molecular clocks calibrated with phylogenetic divergences can overestimate the timings of population-level events by an order of magnitude. Overestimates disconnect historical population reconstructions from climatic history and confound our understanding of the factors influencing genetic variability. If mismatch distributions and BSPs largely reflect demographic history, the widespread signature of population expansion in vertebrate, invertebrate, and plant populations appears to reflect responses to postglacial climate warming. PMID:25926628

  14. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  15. The Bayesian Analysis Software Developed At Washington University

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marutyan, Karen R.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2009-12-01

    Over the last few years there has been an ongoing effort at the Biomedical Magnetic Resonance Laboratory within Washington University to develop data analysis applications using Bayesian probability theory. A few of these applications are specific to Magnetic Resonance data, however, most are general and can analyze data from a wide variety of sources. These data analysis applications are server based and they have been written in such a way as to allow them to utilize as many processors as are available. The interface to these Bayesian applications is a client based Java interface. The client, usually a Windows PC, runs the interface, sets up an analysis, sends the analysis to the server, fetches the results and displays the appropriate plots on the users client machine. Together, the client and server software can be used to solve a host of interesting problems that occur regularly in the sciences. In this paper, we describe both the client and server software and briefly discuss how to acquire, install and maintain this software.

  16. Bayesian analysis to detect abrupt changes in extreme hydrological processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jo, Seongil; Kim, Gwangsu; Jeon, Jong-June

    2016-07-01

    In this study, we develop a new method for a Bayesian change point analysis. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be extended to a wide class of distributions. Using a generalized extreme-value distribution, we investigate the annual maximum of precipitations observed at stations in the South Korean Peninsula, and find significant changes in the considered sites. We evaluate the hydrological risk in predictions using the estimated return levels. In addition, we explain that the misspecification of the probability model can lead to a bias in the number of change points and using a simple example, show that this problem is difficult to avoid by technical data transformation.

  17. A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

    SciTech Connect

    David Ireland; Bryan McKinnon; Dan Protopopescu; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; H. Bagdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Barry Berman; Angela Biselli; Lukasz Blaszczyk; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Liam Casey; Shifeng Chen; Lu Cheng; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; Natalya Dashyan; Rita De Masi; Raffaella De Vita; Enzo De Sanctis; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Lamiaa Elfassi; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Ahmed Fradi; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Nerses Gevorgyan; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Wesley Gohn; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Hayk Hakobyan; Charles Hanretty; Neil Hassall; F. Hersman; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Yordanka Ilieva; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; D. Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; John Johnstone; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; Wooyoung Kim; Andreas Klein; Franz Klein; Mikhail Kossov; Zebulun Krahn; Laird Kramer; Valery Kubarovsky; Joachim Kuhn; Sergey Kuleshov; Viacheslav Kuznetsov; Jeff Lachniet; Jean Laget; Jorn Langheinrich; D. Lawrence; Kenneth Livingston; Haiyun Lu; Marion MacCormick; Nikolai Markov; Paul Mattione; Bernhard Mecking; Mac Mestayer; Curtis Meyer; Tsutomu Mibe; Konstantin Mikhaylov; Marco Mirazita; Rory Miskimen; Viktor Mokeev; Brahim Moreno; Kei Moriya; Steven Morrow; Maryam Moteabbed; Edwin Munevar Espitia; Gordon Mutchler; Pawel Nadel-Turonski; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Silvia Niccolai; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Bogdan Niczyporuk; Megh Niroula; Rustam Niyazov; Mina Nozar; Mikhail Osipenko; Alexander Ostrovidov; Kijun Park; Evgueni Pasyuk; Craig Paterson; Sergio Pereira; Joshua Pierce; Nikolay Pivnyuk; Oleg Pogorelko; Sergey Pozdnyakov; John Price; Sebastien Procureur; Yelena Prok; Brian Raue; Giovanni Ricco; Marco Ripani; Barry Ritchie; Federico Ronchetti; Guenther Rosner; Patrizia Rossi; Franck Sabatie; Julian Salamanca; Carlos Salgado; Joseph Santoro; Vladimir Sapunenko; Reinhard Schumacher; Vladimir Serov; Youri Sharabian; Dmitri Sharov; Nikolay Shvedunov; Elton Smith; Lee Smith; Daniel Sober; Daria Sokhan; Aleksey Stavinskiy; Samuel Stepanyan; Stepan Stepanyan; Burnham Stokes; Paul Stoler; Steffen Strauch; Mauro Taiuti; David Tedeschi; Ulrike Thoma; Avtandil Tkabladze; Svyatoslav Tkachenko; Clarisse Tur; Maurizio Ungaro; Michael Vineyard; Alexander Vlassov; Daniel Watts; Lawrence Weinstein; Dennis Weygand; M. Williams; Elliott Wolin; M.H. Wood; Amrit Yegneswaran; Lorenzo Zana; Jixie Zhang; Bo Zhao; Zhiwen Zhao

    2008-02-01

    We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a $\\Theta^{+}$ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a $\\Theta^{+}$. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner.

  18. Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 2 Group B

    PubMed Central

    Cella, Eleonora; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Giovanetti, Marta; Veo, Carla; Lai, Alessia; Dicuonzo, Giordano; Angeletti, Silvia; Ciotti, Marco; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Ciccozzi, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Context: Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) infections are mainly restricted to West Africa; however, in the recent years, the prevalence of HIV-2 is a growing concern in some European countries and the Southwestern region of India. Despite the presence of different HIV-2 groups, only A and B Groups have established human-to-human transmission chains. Aims: This work aimed to evaluate the phylogeographic inference of HIV-2 Group B worldwide to estimate their data of origin and the population dynamics. Materials and Methods: The evolutionary rates, the demographic history for HIV-2 Group B dataset, and the phylogeographic analysis were estimated using a Bayesian approach. The viral gene flow analysis was used to count viral gene out/in flow among different locations. Results: The root of the Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of HIV-2 Group B dated back to 1957. The demographic history of HIV-2 Group B showed that the epidemic remained constant up to 1970 when started an exponential growth. From 1985 to early 2000s, the epidemic reached a plateau, and then it was characterized by two bottlenecks and a new plateau at the end of 2000s. Phylogeographic reconstruction showed that the most probable location for the root of the tree was Ghana. Regarding the viral gene flow of HIV-2 Group B, the only observed viral gene flow was from Africa to France, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Conclusions: The study gives insights into the origin, history, and phylogeography of HIV-2 Group B epidemic. The growing number of infections of HIV-2 worldwide indicates the need for strengthening surveillance. PMID:27621561

  19. Bayesian analysis of inflationary features in Planck and SDSS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benetti, Micol; Alcaniz, Jailson S.

    2016-07-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis to study possible features in the primordial inflationary power spectrum of scalar perturbations. In particular, we analyze the possibility of detecting the imprint of these primordial features in the anisotropy temperature power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and also in the matter power spectrum P (k ) . We use the most recent CMB data provided by the Planck Collaboration and P (k ) measurements from the 11th data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We focus our analysis on a class of potentials whose features are localized at different intervals of angular scales, corresponding to multipoles in the ranges 10 <ℓ<60 (Oscill-1) and 150 <ℓ<300 (Oscill-2). Our results show that one of the step potentials (Oscill-1) provides a better fit to the CMB data than does the featureless Λ CDM scenario, with moderate Bayesian evidence in favor of the former. Adding the P (k ) data to the analysis weakens the evidence of the Oscill-1 potential relative to the standard model and strengthens the evidence of this latter scenario with respect to the Oscill-2 model.

  20. Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

    2014-08-01

    In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

  1. Phylogenetic analysis of Chinese sheeppox and goatpox virus isolates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Sheeppox virus (SPPV) and goatpox virus (GTPV), members of the Capripoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family are causative agents of sheep pox and goat pox respectively, which are important contagious diseases and endemic in central and northern Africa, the Middle and Far East, and the Indian sub-continent. Both sheep pox and goat pox can cause wool and hide damage, and reduce the production of mutton and milk, which may result in significant economic losses and threaten the stockbreeding. In this study, three SPPVs and two GTPVs were collected from China in 2009 and 2011. We described the sequence features and phylogenetic analysis of the P32 gene, GPCR gene and RPO30 gene of the SPPVs and GTPVs to reveal their genetic relatedness. Results Sequence and phylogenetic analysis showed that there was a close relationship among SPPV/GanS/2/2011/China, SPPV/GanS/1/2011/China and SPPV/NingX/2009/China. They were clustered on the same SPPV clade. GTPV/HuB/2009/China and GS-V1 belonged to the GTPV lineage. GS-V1 was closely related to other GTPV vaccine strains. GTPV/HuB/2009/China and GS-V1 were clustered with GTPVs from China and some southern Asian countries. Conclusion This study may expand the datum for spread trend research of Chinese SPPVs and GTPVs, meanwhile provide theoretical references to improve the preventive and control strategy. PMID:22264255

  2. Isolation and phylogenetic analysis of caprine Orf virus in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Ashwaq Ahmed; Ismail, Muhammad Farid Bin; Balakrishnan, Krishnan Nair; Bala, Jamilu Abubakar; Hani, Homayoun; Abba, Yusuf; Awang Isa, Mohd Kamaruddin; Abdullah, Faez Firdaus Jesse; Arshad, Siti Suri; Nazariah, Zeenatul Allaudin; Abdullah, Rasedee; Mustapha, Noordin Mohamed; Mohd-Lila, Mohd-Azmi

    2015-12-01

    Orf virus is a DNA virus that causes contiguous ecthyma in goat and sheep. Infection of animals with this virus cause high mortality in young animals resulting in huge economic losses. In this study, we investigated an outbreak of Orf in a goat farm in Malaysia. Samples were collected from infected animals and viral isolation was done using both LT and MDCK cell lines. Molecular detection was done by conventional PCR for specific primers; B2L and F1L genes and phylogenetic analysis was done on the sequence data obtained. Cytopathic effects (CPE) were observed in both cell lines after 3 days of inoculation and were 50 % by the sixth day. PCR showed positive bands for both B2L and F1L genes and phylogenetic analysis showed that the Malaysian strain had close homology to the Chinese and Indian Orf virus isolates. This study gives more insight into the existing Orf viral strains in Malaysia and their relationship with other strains globally. PMID:26645035

  3. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Formin Homology 2 DomainD⃞

    PubMed Central

    Higgs, Henry N.; Peterson, Kevin J.

    2005-01-01

    Formin proteins are key regulators of eukaryotic actin filament assembly and elongation, and many species possess multiple formin isoforms. A nomenclature system based on fundamental features would be desirable, to aid the rapid identification and characterization of novel formins. In this article, we attempt to systematize the formin family by performing phylogenetic analyses of the formin homology 2 (FH2) domain, an independently folding region common to all formins, which alone can influence actin dynamics. Through database searches, we identify 101 FH2 domains from 26 eukaryotic species, including 15 in mice. Sequence alignments reveal a highly conserved yeast-specific insert in the “knob loop” region of the FH2 domain, with unknown functional consequences. Phylogenetic analysis using minimum evolution (ME), maximum parsimony (MP), and maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms strongly supports the existence of seven metazoan groups. Yeast FH2 domains segregate from all other eukaryotes, including metazoans, other fungi, plants, and protists. Sequence comparisons of non-FH2 regions support relationships between three metazoan groups (Dia, DAAM, and FRL) and examine previously identified coiled-coil and Diaphanous auto-regulatory domain sequences. This analysis allows for a formin nomenclature system based on sequence relationships, as well as suggesting strategies for the determination of biochemical and cellular activities of these proteins. PMID:15509653

  4. Large-scale reconstruction and phylogenetic analysis of metabolic environments

    PubMed Central

    Borenstein, Elhanan; Kupiec, Martin; Feldman, Marcus W.; Ruppin, Eytan

    2008-01-01

    The topology of metabolic networks may provide important insights not only into the metabolic capacity of species, but also into the habitats in which they evolved. Here we introduce the concept of a metabolic network's “seed set”—the set of compounds that, based on the network topology, are exogenously acquired—and provide a methodological framework to computationally infer the seed set of a given network. Such seed sets form ecological “interfaces” between metabolic networks and their surroundings, approximating the effective biochemical environment of each species. Analyzing the metabolic networks of 478 species and identifying the seed set of each species, we present a comprehensive large-scale reconstruction of such predicted metabolic environments. The seed sets' composition significantly correlates with several basic properties characterizing the species' environments and agrees with biological observations concerning major adaptations. Species whose environments are highly predictable (e.g., obligate parasites) tend to have smaller seed sets than species living in variable environments. Phylogenetic analysis of the seed sets reveals the complex dynamics governing gain and loss of seeds across the phylogenetic tree and the process of transition between seed and non-seed compounds. Our findings suggest that the seed state is transient and that seeds tend either to be dropped completely from the network or to become non-seed compounds relatively fast. The seed sets also permit a successful reconstruction of a phylogenetic tree of life. The “reverse ecology” approach presented lays the foundations for studying the evolutionary interplay between organisms and their habitats on a large scale. PMID:18787117

  5. RFLP analysis of mtDNA from six platyrrhine genera: phylogenetic inferences.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-García, M; Alvarez, D

    2003-01-01

    This study investigates the phylogenetic relationships of 10 species of platyrrhine primates using RFLP analysis of mtDNA. Three restriction enzymes were used to determine the restriction site haplotypes for a total of 276 individuals. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum parsimony was employed to construct phylogenetic trees. We found close phylogenetic relationships between Alouatta, Lagothrix and Ateles. We also found a close relationship between Cebus and Aotus, with Saimiri clustering with the atelines. Haplotype diversity was found in four of the species studied, in Cebus albifrons, Saimiri sciureus, Lagothrix lagotricha and Ateles fusciceps. These data provide additional information concerning the phylogenetic relationships between these platyrrhine genera and species. PMID:12759493

  6. Analysis of magnetic field fluctuation thermometry using Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wübbeler, G.; Schmähling, F.; Beyer, J.; Engert, J.; Elster, C.

    2012-12-01

    A Bayesian approach is proposed for the analysis of magnetic field fluctuation thermometry. The approach addresses the estimation of temperature from the measurement of a noise power spectrum as well as the analysis of previous calibration measurements. A key aspect is the reliable determination of uncertainties associated with the obtained temperature estimates, and the proposed approach naturally accounts for both the uncertainties in the calibration stage and the noise in the temperature measurement. Erlang distributions are employed to model the fluctuations of thermal noise power spectra and we show that such a procedure is justified in the light of the data. We describe in detail the Bayesian approach and briefly refer to Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques used in the numerical calculation of the results. The MATLAB® software package we used for calculating our results is provided. The proposed approach is validated using magnetic field fluctuation power spectra recorded in the sub-kelvin region for which an independently determined reference temperature is available. As a result, the obtained temperature estimates were found to be fully consistent with the reference temperature.

  7. Bayesian probability analysis for acoustic-seismic landmine detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Ning; Sabatier, James M.; Goggans, Paul M.

    2002-11-01

    Landmines buried in the subsurface induce distinct changes in the seismic vibration of the ground surface when an acoustic source insonifies the ground. A scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV) senses the acoustically-induced seismic vibration of the ground surface in a noncontact, remote manner. The SLDV-based acoustic-to-seismic coupling technology exhibits significant advantages over conventional sensors due to its capability for detecting both metal and nonmetal mines and its stand-off distance. The seismic vibration data scanned from the SLDV are preprocessed to form images. The detection of landmines relies primarily on an analysis of the target amplitude, size, shape, and frequency range. A parametric model has been established [Xiang and Sabatier, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 110, 2740 (2001)] to describe the amplified surface vibration velocity induced by buried landmines within an appropriate frequency range. This model incorporates vibrational amplitude, size, position of landmines, and the background amplitude into a model-based analysis process in which Bayesian target detection and parameter estimation have been applied. Based on recent field measurement results, the landmine detection procedure within a Bayesian framework will be discussed. [Work supported by the United States Army Communications-Electronics Command, Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate.

  8. Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

    PubMed

    Hack, C Eric

    2006-04-17

    Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach. PMID:16466842

  9. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    SciTech Connect

    Keselman, Dmitry; Tompkins, George H; Leishman, Deborah A

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  10. Inference algorithms and learning theory for Bayesian sparse factor analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rattray, Magnus; Stegle, Oliver; Sharp, Kevin; Winn, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian sparse factor analysis has many applications; for example, it has been applied to the problem of inferring a sparse regulatory network from gene expression data. We describe a number of inference algorithms for Bayesian sparse factor analysis using a slab and spike mixture prior. These include well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms as well as a novel hybrid of VB and Expectation Propagation (EP). For the case of a single latent factor we derive a theory for learning performance using the replica method. We compare the MCMC and VB/EP algorithm results with simulated data to the theoretical prediction. The results for MCMC agree closely with the theory as expected. Results for VB/EP are slightly sub-optimal but show that the new algorithm is effective for sparse inference. In large-scale problems MCMC is infeasible due to computational limitations and the VB/EP algorithm then provides a very useful computationally efficient alternative.

  11. [Genome-wide identification, phylogenetic analysis and expression profiling of the WOX family genes in Solanum lycopersicum].

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaoxu; Liu, Cheng; Li, Wei; Zhang, Zenglin; Gao, Xiaoming; Zhou, Hui; Guo, Yongfeng

    2016-05-01

    Members of the plant-specific WOX transcription factor family have been reported to play important roles in cell to cell communication as well as other physiological and developmental processes. In this study, ten members of the WOX transcription factor family were identified in Solanum lycopersicum with HMMER. Neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree, maximum-likelihood tree and Bayesian-inference tree were constructed and similar topologies were shown using the protein sequences of the homeodomain. Phylogenetic study revealed that the 25 WOX family members from Arabidopsis and tomato fall into three clades and nine subfamilies. The patterns of exon-intron structures and organization of conserved domains in Arabidopsis and tomato were consistent based on the phylogenetic results. Transcriptome analysis showed that the expression patterns of SlWOXs were different in different tissue types. Gene Ontology (GO) analysis suggested that, as transcription factors, the SlWOX family members could be involved in a number of biological processes including cell to cell communication and tissue development. Our results are useful for future studies on WOX family members in tomato and other plant species. PMID:27232493

  12. Phylogenetic Analysis of Astrovirus and Kobuvirus in Korean Dogs

    PubMed Central

    CHOI, Sarah; LIM, Seong-In; KIM, Yong Kwan; CHO, Yoon-Young; SONG, Jae-Young; AN, Dong-Jun

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Astroviruses and kobuviruses are frequently found in mammalian feces, including that of humans. The present study examined fecal samples from 91 Korean dogs suffering from diarrhea. Canine astroviruses (CAstVs) and canine kobuviruses (CKoVs) were identified in 2 (2.1%) and 46 (50.6%) dogs, respectively. Nucleotide sequence analysis coupled with phylogenetic analysis using the neighbor-joining method showed that CAstVs clustered into four genetically diverse groups. Two Korean CAstVs belonged to group 2 alongside strains isolated in Italy and France. Twelve of the Korean CKoVs belonged to a single clade, along with strain UK003 identified in the UK and six CKoVs identified in the USA. Thus, the results suggest that the Korean strain of CAstV is closely related to strains isolated in Europe. Surely, CKoV in South Korea could identify the circulation among dogs population. PMID:24784439

  13. Phylogenetic analysis and characterization of Korean bovine viral diarrhea viruses.

    PubMed

    Oem, Jae-Ku; Hyun, Bang-Hun; Cha, Sang-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Ki; Kim, Seong-Hee; Kim, Hye-Ryoung; Park, Choi-Kyu; Joo, Yi-Seok

    2009-11-18

    Thirty-six bovine viral disease viruses (BVDVs) were identified in bovine feces (n=16), brains (n=2), and aborted fetuses (n=18) in Korea. To reveal the genetic diversity and characteristics of these Korean strains, the sequences of their 5'-untranslated regions (5'-UTRs) were determined and then compared with published reference sequences. Neighbor-joining phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the Korean viruses were of the BVDV subtypes 1a (n=17) or 2a (n=17). The remaining strains were of subtypes 1b (n=1) and 1n (n=1). This analysis indicates that the 1a and 2a BVDV subtypes are predominant and widespread in Korea. In addition, the prevalence of BVDV-2 was markedly higher in aborted fetuses than in other samples and was more often associated with reproductive problems and significant mortality in cattle. PMID:19589650

  14. Applying Logic Analysis to Genomic Data and Phylogenetic Profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeates, Todd

    2005-03-01

    One of the main goals of comparative genomics is to understand how all the various proteins in a cell relate to each other in terms of pathways and interaction networks. Various computational ideas have been explored with this goal in mind. In the original phylogenetic profile method, `functional linkages' were inferred between pairs of proteins when the two proteins, A and B, showed identical (or statistically similar) patterns of presence vs. absence across a set of completely sequenced genomes. Here we describe a new generalization, logic analysis of phylogenetic profiles (LAPP), from which higher order relationships can be identified between three (or more) different proteins. For instance, in one type of triplet logic relation -- of which there are eight distinct types -- a protein C may be present in a genome iff proteins A and B are both present (C=AB). An application of the LAPP method identifies thousands of previously unidentified relationships between protein triplets. These higher order logic relationships offer insights -- not available from pairwise approaches -- into branching, competition, and alternate routes through cellular pathways and networks. The results also make it possible to assign tentative cellular functions to many novel proteins of unknown function. Co-authors: Peter Bowers, Shawn Cokus, Morgan Beeby, and David Eisenberg

  15. Complete mitochondrial genome sequence of Marmota himalayana (Rodentia: Sciuridae) and phylogenetic analysis within Rodentia.

    PubMed

    Chao, Q J; Li, Y D; Geng, X X; Zhang, L; Dai, X; Zhang, X; Li, J; Zhang, H J

    2014-01-01

    This is the first report of a complete mitochondrial genome sequence from Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana, class Marmota). We determined the M. himalayana mitochondrial (mt) genome sequence by using long-PCR methods and a primer-walking sequencing strategy with genus-specific primers. The complete mt genome of M. himalayana was 16,443 bp in length and comprised 13 protein-coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, 22 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes, and a typical control region (CR). Gene order and orientation were identical to those in mt genomes of most vertebrates. The heavy strand showed an overall A+T content of 63.49%. AT and GC skews for the mt genome of the M. himalayana were 0.012 and -0.300, respectively, indicating a nucleotide bias against T and G. The control region was 997 bp in size and displayed some unusual features, including absence of repeated motifs and two conserved sequence blocks (CSB2 and CSB3), which is consistent with observations from two other rodent species, Sciurus vulgaris and Myoxus glis. Phylogenetic analysis of complete mt DNA sequences without the control region including 30 taxa of Rodentia was performed with Maximum-Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI) methods and provided strong support for Sciurognathi polyphyly and Hystricognathi monophyly. This analysis also provided evidence that M. himalayana mt DNA was closely related to that from Sciurus vulgaris (Sciuridae) and was similar to mt DNA from Myoxus glis. PMID:24782088

  16. Phylogenetic analysis of two putative Nosema isolates from Cruciferous Lepidopteran pests in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Ku, Chin-Tai; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Tsai, Yi-Chun; Tzeng, Ching-Chou; Wang, Chung-Hsiung

    2007-05-01

    In this study, a new microsporidian, PX2, was isolated from the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, and then compared with another isolate (PX1), and with Nosema spodopterae and N. bombycis. Sequence data showed that the rRNA gene organizations of PX1 and PX2 exhibited a typical Nosema-specific organization: 5'-LSUrRNA (large subunit ribosomal RNA)-ITS (internal transcribed spacer)-SSUrRNA-IGS (intergenic spacer)-5S-3'. Phylogenetic analysis (maximum likelihood, neighbor joining, maximum parsimony, and Bayesian analysis) of the LSUrRNA and SSUrRNA gene sequences, and the sequences of the alpha-tubulin, beta-tubulin, and RPB1 (DNA dependent RNA polymerase II largest subunit) genes found that PX1 was closer to N. bombycis and N. spodopterae than to PX2. Comparison of the identities of the rRNA domains and of the other three genes showed a high divergence in the sequences of the rRNA spacer regions (ITS and IGS). This is consistent with the hypothesis that PX2, if not PX1, might represent a new Nosema species. PMID:17266983

  17. A Bayesian analysis of two probability models describing thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williford, W. O.; Hsieh, P.; Carter, M. C.

    1974-01-01

    A Bayesian analysis of the two discrete probability models, the negative binomial and the modified negative binomial distributions, which have been used to describe thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is presented. The Bayesian approach with beta prior distributions is compared to the classical approach which uses a moment method of estimation or a maximum-likelihood method. The accuracy and simplicity of the Bayesian method is demonstrated.

  18. A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

  19. Bayesian Models for fMRI Data Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), a noninvasive neuroimaging method that provides an indirect measure of neuronal activity by detecting blood flow changes, has experienced an explosive growth in the past years. Statistical methods play a crucial role in understanding and analyzing fMRI data. Bayesian approaches, in particular, have shown great promise in applications. A remarkable feature of fully Bayesian approaches is that they allow a flexible modeling of spatial and temporal correlations in the data. This paper provides a review of the most relevant models developed in recent years. We divide methods according to the objective of the analysis. We start from spatio-temporal models for fMRI data that detect task-related activation patterns. We then address the very important problem of estimating brain connectivity. We also touch upon methods that focus on making predictions of an individual's brain activity or a clinical or behavioral response. We conclude with a discussion of recent integrative models that aim at combining fMRI data with other imaging modalities, such as EEG/MEG and DTI data, measured on the same subjects. We also briefly discuss the emerging field of imaging genetics. PMID:25750690

  20. Bayesian robust analysis for genetic architecture of quantitative traits

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Runqing; Wang, Xin; Li, Jian; Deng, Hongwen

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: In most quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping studies, phenotypes are assumed to follow normal distributions. Deviations from this assumption may affect the accuracy of QTL detection and lead to detection of spurious QTLs. To improve the robustness of QTL mapping methods, we replaced the normal distribution for residuals in multiple interacting QTL models with the normal/independent distributions that are a class of symmetric and long-tailed distributions and are able to accommodate residual outliers. Subsequently, we developed a Bayesian robust analysis strategy for dissecting genetic architecture of quantitative traits and for mapping genome-wide interacting QTLs in line crosses. Results: Through computer simulations, we showed that our strategy had a similar power for QTL detection compared with traditional methods assuming normal-distributed traits, but had a substantially increased power for non-normal phenotypes. When this strategy was applied to a group of traits associated with physical/chemical characteristics and quality in rice, more main and epistatic QTLs were detected than traditional Bayesian model analyses under the normal assumption. Contact: runqingyang@sjtu.edu.cn; dengh@umkc.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:18974168

  1. Comparative cytogenetic analysis of some species of the Dendropsophus microcephalus group (Anura, Hylidae) in the light of phylogenetic inferences

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Dendropsophus is a monophyletic anuran genus with a diploid number of 30 chromosomes as an important synapomorphy. However, the internal phylogenetic relationships of this genus are poorly understood. Interestingly, an intriguing interspecific variation in the telocentric chromosome number has been useful in species identification. To address certain uncertainties related to one of the species groups of Dendropsophus, the D. microcephalus group, we carried out a cytogenetic analysis combined with phylogenetic inferences based on mitochondrial sequences, which aimed to aid in the analysis of chromosomal characters. Populations of Dendropsophus nanus, Dendropsophus walfordi, Dendropsophus sanborni, Dendropsophus jimi and Dendropsophus elianeae, ranging from the extreme south to the north of Brazil, were cytogenetically compared. A mitochondrial region of the ribosomal 12S gene from these populations, as well as from 30 other species of Dendropsophus, was used for the phylogenetic inferences. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred using maximum parsimony and Bayesian analyses. Results The species D. nanus and D. walfordi exhibited identical karyotypes (2n = 30; FN = 52), with four pairs of telocentric chromosomes and a NOR located on metacentric chromosome pair 13. In all of the phylogenetic hypotheses, the paraphyly of D. nanus and D. walfordi was inferred. D. sanborni from Botucatu-SP and Torres-RS showed the same karyotype as D. jimi, with 5 pairs of telocentric chromosomes (2n = 30; FN = 50) and a terminal NOR in the long arm of the telocentric chromosome pair 12. Despite their karyotypic similarity, these species were not found to compose a monophyletic group. Finally, the phylogenetic and cytogenetic analyses did not cluster the specimens of D. elianeae according to their geographical occurrence or recognized morphotypes. Conclusions We suggest that a taxonomic revision of the taxa D. nanus and D. walfordi is quite necessary. We also

  2. Bayesian imperfect information analysis for clinical recurrent data

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Chih-Kuang; Chang, Chi-Chang

    2015-01-01

    In medical research, clinical practice must often be undertaken with imperfect information from limited resources. This study applied Bayesian imperfect information-value analysis to realistic situations to produce likelihood functions and posterior distributions, to a clinical decision-making problem for recurrent events. In this study, three kinds of failure models are considered, and our methods illustrated with an analysis of imperfect information from a trial of immunotherapy in the treatment of chronic granulomatous disease. In addition, we present evidence toward a better understanding of the differing behaviors along with concomitant variables. Based on the results of simulations, the imperfect information value of the concomitant variables was evaluated and different realistic situations were compared to see which could yield more accurate results for medical decision-making. PMID:25565853

  3. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  4. Bayesian Model Selection in 'Big Data' Spectral Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Travis C.; Crenshaw, D. Michael; Baron, Fabien; Kloppenborg, Brian K.; Pope, Crystal L.

    2015-01-01

    As IFU observations and large spectral surveys continue to become more prevalent, the handling of thousands of spectra has become common place. Astronomers look at objects with increasingly complex emission-linestructures, so establishing a method that will easily allow for multiple-component analysis of these features in an automated fashion would be of great use to the community. Already used in exoplanet detection and interferometric image reconstruction, we present a new application of Bayesian model selection in `big data' spectral analysis. With this technique, the fitting of multiple emission-line components in an automated fashion while simultaneously determining the correct number of components in each spectrum streamlines the line measurements for a large number of spectra into a single process.

  5. Complete mitochondrial genome of Paracobitis variegates and its phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chang Zhong; Wei, Guang Hui; Hu, Jian He; Liu, Xing You

    2016-07-01

    In this study, the complete mitochondrial genome sequence of the Paracobitis variegates was first reported. The total length of the mitogenome is 16,571 bp long with the A + T content of 55.6%. It contains the typical structure, including 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNA genes, two ribosomal RNA genes, and one D-loop region. The protein-coding genes start with the typical ATG codon, while COI gene uses GTG as the initiation codon. Most tRNA genes could form typical secondary structures except tRNA(ser), which had an absence of the DHU arm. There are 43 helices structures in 12S rRNA, and six domains, 53 helices structures in 16S rRNA. According to the phylogenetic analysis, Paracobitis variegates has a closer relationship with Barbatula toni. PMID:25922960

  6. A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Regional Frequency Analysis of Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renard, B.

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall and runoff frequency analysis is a major issue for the hydrological community. The distribution of hydrological extremes varies in space and possibly in time. Describing and understanding this spatiotemporal variability are primary challenges to improve hazard quantification and risk assessment. This presentation proposes a general approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model, following previous work by Cooley et al. [2007], Micevski [2007], Aryal et al. [2009] or Lima and Lall [2009; 2010]. Such a hierarchical model is made up of two levels: (1) a data level modeling the distribution of observations, and (2) a process level describing the fluctuation of the distribution parameters in space and possibly in time. At the first level of the model, at-site data (e.g., annual maxima series) are modeled with a chosen distribution (e.g., a GEV distribution). Since data from several sites are considered, the joint distribution of a vector of (spatial) observations needs to be derived. This is challenging because data are in general not spatially independent, especially for nearby sites. An elliptical copula is therefore used to formally account for spatial dependence between at-site data. This choice might be questionable in the context of extreme value distributions. However, it is motivated by its applicability in spatial highly dimensional problems, where the joint pdf of a vector of n observations is required to derive the likelihood function (with n possibly amounting to hundreds of sites). At the second level of the model, parameters of the chosen at-site distribution are then modeled by a Gaussian spatial process, whose mean may depend on covariates (e.g. elevation, distance to sea, weather pattern, time). In particular, this spatial process allows estimating parameters at ungauged sites, and deriving the predictive distribution of rainfall/runoff at every pixel/catchment of the studied domain. An application to extreme rainfall series from the French

  7. Complete mitochondrial genome of the Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus), with phylogenetic analysis in phasianidae.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Tai-Cheng; Sha, Tao; Irwin, David M; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2015-01-01

    Pavo cristatus, known as the Indian peafowl, is endemic to India and Sri Lanka and has been domesticated for its ornamental and food value. However, its phylogenetic status is still debated. Here, to clarify the phylogenetic status of P. cristatus within Phasianidae, we analyzed its mitochondrial genome (mtDNA). The complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome was determined using 34 pairs of primers. Our data show that the mtDNA genome of P. cristatus is 16,686 bp in length. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of P. cristatus was performed along with 22 complete mtDNA genomes belonging to other species in Phasianidae using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods, where Aythya americana and Anas platyrhynchos were used as outgroups. Our results show that P. critatus has its closest genetic affinity with Pavo muticus and belongs to clade that contains Gallus, Bambusicola and Francolinus. PMID:24409883

  8. Phylogenetic analysis of dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lonergan, D.J.; Jenter, H.L.; Coates, J.D.; Phillips, E.J.P.; Schmidt, T.M.; Lovley, D.R.

    1996-01-01

    Evolutionary relationships among strictly anaerobic dissimilatory Fe(III)- reducing bacteria obtained from a diversity of sedimentary environments were examined by phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences. Members of the genera Geobacter, Desulfuromonas, Pelobacter, and Desulfuromusa formed a monophyletic group within the delta subdivision of the class Proteobacteria. On the basis of their common ancestry and the shared ability to reduce Fe(III) and/or S0, we propose that this group be considered a single family, Geobacteraceae. Bootstrap analysis, characteristic nucleotides, and higher- order secondary structures support the division of Geobacteraceae into two subgroups, designated the Geobacter and Desulfuromonas clusters. The genus Desulfuromusa and Pelobacter acidigallici make up a distinct branch with the Desulfuromonas cluster. Several members of the family Geobacteraceae, none of which reduce sulfate, were found to contain the target sequences of probes that have been previously used to define the distribution of sulfate-reducing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacterium-like microorganisms. The recent isolations of Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms distributed throughout the domain Bacteria suggest that development of 16S rRNA probes that would specifically target all Fe(III) reducers may not be feasible. However, all of the evidence suggests that if a 16S rRNA sequence falls within the family Geobacteraceae, then the organism has the capacity for Fe(III) reduction. The suggestion, based on geological evidence, that Fe(III) reduction was the first globally significant process for oxidizing organic matter back to carbon dioxide is consistent with the finding that acetate-oxidizing Fe(III) reducers are phylogenetically diverse.

  9. Phylogenetic analysis of dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria.

    PubMed Central

    Lonergan, D J; Jenter, H L; Coates, J D; Phillips, E J; Schmidt, T M; Lovley, D R

    1996-01-01

    Evolutionary relationships among strictly anaerobic dissimilatory Fe(III)-reducing bacteria obtained from a diversity of sedimentary environments were examined by phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences. Members of the genera Geobacter, Desulfuromonas, Pelobacter, and Desulfuromusa formed a monophyletic group within the delta subdivision of the class Proteobacteria. On the basis of their common ancestry and the shared ability to reduce Fe(III) and/or S0, we propose that this group be considered a single family, Geobacteraceae. Bootstrap analysis, characteristic nucleotides, and higher-order secondary structures support the division of Geobacteraceae into two subgroups, designated the Geobacter and Desulfuromonas clusters. The genus Desulfuromusa and Pelobacter acidigallici make up a distinct branch within the Desulfuromonas cluster. Several members of the family Geobacteraceae, none of which reduce sulfate, were found to contain the target sequences of probes that have been previously used to define the distribution of sulfate-reducing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacterium-like microorganisms. The recent isolations of Fe(III)-reducing microorganisms distributed throughout the domain Bacteria suggest that development of 16S rRNA probes that would specifically target all Fe(III) reducers may not be feasible. However, all of the evidence suggests that if a 16S rRNA sequence falls within the family Geobacteraceae, then the organism has the capacity for Fe(III) reduction. The suggestion, based on geological evidence, that Fe(III) reduction was the first globally significant process for oxidizing organic matter back to carbon dioxide is consistent with the finding that acetate-oxidizing Fe(III) reducers are phylogenetically diverse. PMID:8636045

  10. Distribution and Phylogenetic Analysis of Family 19 Chitinases in Actinobacteria

    PubMed Central

    Kawase, Tomokazu; Saito, Akihiro; Sato, Toshiya; Kanai, Ryo; Fujii, Takeshi; Nikaidou, Naoki; Miyashita, Kiyotaka; Watanabe, Takeshi

    2004-01-01

    In organisms other than higher plants, family 19 chitinase was first discovered in Streptomyces griseus HUT6037, and later, the general occurrence of this enzyme in Streptomyces species was demonstrated. In the present study, the distribution of family 19 chitinases in the class Actinobacteria and the phylogenetic relationship of Actinobacteria family 19 chitinases with family 19 chitinases of other organisms were investigated. Forty-nine strains were chosen to cover almost all the suborders of the class Actinobacteria, and chitinase production was examined. Of the 49 strains, 22 formed cleared zones on agar plates containing colloidal chitin and thus appeared to produce chitinases. These 22 chitinase-positive strains were subjected to Southern hybridization analysis by using a labeled DNA fragment corresponding to the catalytic domain of ChiC, and the presence of genes similar to chiC of S. griseus HUT6037 in at least 13 strains was suggested by the results. PCR amplification and sequencing of the DNA fragments corresponding to the major part of the catalytic domains of the family 19 chitinase genes confirmed the presence of family 19 chitinase genes in these 13 strains. The strains possessing family 19 chitinase genes belong to 6 of the 10 suborders in the order Actinomycetales, which account for the greatest part of the Actinobacteria. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that there is a close evolutionary relationship between family 19 chitinases found in Actinobacteria and plant class IV chitinases. The general occurrence of family 19 chitinase genes in Streptomycineae and the high sequence similarity among the genes found in Actinobacteria suggest that the family 19 chitinase gene was first acquired by an ancestor of the Streptomycineae and spread among the Actinobacteria through horizontal gene transfer. PMID:14766598

  11. Phylogenetic and Structural Analysis of Polyketide Synthases in Aspergilli

    PubMed Central

    Bhetariya, Preetida J.; Prajapati, Madhvi; Bhaduri, Asani; Mandal, Rahul Shubhra; Varma, Anupam; Madan, Taruna; Singh, Yogendra; Sarma, P. Usha

    2016-01-01

    Polyketide synthases (PKSs) of Aspergillus species are multidomain and multifunctional megaenzymes that play an important role in the synthesis of diverse polyketide compounds. Putative PKS protein sequences from Aspergillus species representing medically, agriculturally, and industrially important Aspergillus species were chosen and screened for in silico studies. Six candidate Aspergillus species, Aspergillus fumigatus Af293, Aspergillus flavus NRRL3357, Aspergillus niger CBS 513.88, Aspergillus terreus NIH2624, Aspergillus oryzae RIB40, and Aspergillus clavatus NRRL1, were selected to study the PKS phylogeny. Full-length PKS proteins and only ketosynthase (KS) domain sequence were retrieved for independent phylogenetic analysis from the aforementioned species, and phylogenetic analysis was performed with characterized fungal PKS. This resulted into grouping of Aspergilli PKSs into nonreducing (NR), partially reducing (PR), and highly reducing (HR) PKS enzymes. Eight distinct clades with unique domain arrangements were classified based on homology with functionally characterized PKS enzymes. Conserved motif signatures corresponding to each type of PKS were observed. Three proteins from Protein Data Bank corresponding to NR, PR, and HR type of PKS (XP_002384329.1, XP_753141.2, and XP_001402408.2, respectively) were selected for mapping of conserved motifs on three-dimensional structures of KS domain. Structural variations were found at the active sites on modeled NR, PR, and HR enzymes of Aspergillus. It was observed that the number of iteration cycles was dependent on the size of the cavity in the active site of the PKS enzyme correlating with a type with reducing or NR products, such as pigment, 6MSA, and lovastatin. The current study reports the grouping and classification of PKS proteins of Aspergilli for possible exploration of novel polyketides based on sequence homology; this information can be useful for selection of PKS for polyketide exploration and

  12. Investigating cultural evolution using phylogenetic analysis: the origins and descent of the southeast Asian tradition of warp ikat weaving.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Christopher D

    2012-01-01

    The warp ikat method of making decorated textiles is one of the most geographically widespread in southeast Asia, being used by Austronesian peoples in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and Daic peoples on the Asian mainland. In this study a dataset consisting of the decorative characters of 36 of these warp ikat weaving traditions is investigated using Bayesian and Neighbornet techniques, and the results are used to construct a phylogenetic tree and taxonomy for warp ikat weaving in southeast Asia. The results and analysis show that these diverse traditions have a common ancestor amongst neolithic cultures the Asian mainland, and parallels exist between the patterns of textile weaving descent and linguistic phylogeny for the Austronesian group. Ancestral state analysis is used to reconstruct some of the features of the ancestral weaving tradition. The widely held theory that weaving motifs originated in the late Bronze Age Dong-Son culture is shown to be inconsistent with the data. PMID:23272211

  13. Investigating Cultural Evolution Using Phylogenetic Analysis: The Origins and Descent of the Southeast Asian Tradition of Warp Ikat Weaving

    PubMed Central

    Buckley, Christopher D.

    2012-01-01

    The warp ikat method of making decorated textiles is one of the most geographically widespread in southeast Asia, being used by Austronesian peoples in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and Daic peoples on the Asian mainland. In this study a dataset consisting of the decorative characters of 36 of these warp ikat weaving traditions is investigated using Bayesian and Neighbornet techniques, and the results are used to construct a phylogenetic tree and taxonomy for warp ikat weaving in southeast Asia. The results and analysis show that these diverse traditions have a common ancestor amongst neolithic cultures the Asian mainland, and parallels exist between the patterns of textile weaving descent and linguistic phylogeny for the Austronesian group. Ancestral state analysis is used to reconstruct some of the features of the ancestral weaving tradition. The widely held theory that weaving motifs originated in the late Bronze Age Dong-Son culture is shown to be inconsistent with the data. PMID:23272211

  14. The mitochondrial genome of Polistes jokahamae and a phylogenetic analysis of the Vespoidea (Insecta: Hymenoptera).

    PubMed

    Song, Sheng-Nan; Chen, Peng-Yan; Wei, Shu-Jun; Chen, Xue-Xin

    2016-07-01

    The mitochondrial genome sequence of Polistes jokahamae (Radoszkowski, 1887) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) (GenBank accession no. KR052468) was sequenced. The current length with partial A + T-rich region of this mitochondrial genome is 16,616 bp. All the typical mitochondrial genes were sequenced except for three tRNAs (trnI, trnQ, and trnY) located between the A + T-rich region and nad2. At least three rearrangement events occurred in the sequenced region compared with the pupative ancestral arrangement of insects, corresponding to the shuffling of trnK and trnD, translocation or remote inversion of tnnY and translocation of trnL1. All protein-coding genes start with ATN codons. Eleven, one, and another one protein-coding genes stop with termination codon TAA, TA, and T, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis using the Bayesian method based on all codon positions of the 13 protein-coding genes supports the monophyly of Vespidae and Formicidae. Within the Formicidae, the Myrmicinae and Formicinae form a sister lineage and then sister to the Dolichoderinae, while within the Vespidae, the Eumeninae is sister to the lineage of Vespinae + Polistinae. PMID:26094985

  15. The Phylogeographic History of the New World Screwworm Fly, Inferred by Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Azeredo-Espin, Ana Maria L.

    2013-01-01

    Insect pest phylogeography might be shaped both by biogeographic events and by human influence. Here, we conducted an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis to investigate the phylogeography of the New World screwworm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax, with the aim of understanding its population history and its order and time of divergence. Our ABC analysis supports that populations spread from North to South in the Americas, in at least two different moments. The first split occurred between the North/Central American and South American populations in the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (15,300-19,000 YBP). The second split occurred between the North and South Amazonian populations in the transition between the Pleistocene and the Holocene eras (9,100-11,000 YBP). The species also experienced population expansion. Phylogenetic analysis likewise suggests this north to south colonization and Maxent models suggest an increase in the number of suitable areas in South America from the past to present. We found that the phylogeographic patterns observed in C. hominivorax cannot be explained only by climatic oscillations and can be connected to host population histories. Interestingly we found these patterns are very coincident with general patterns of ancient human movements in the Americas, suggesting that humans might have played a crucial role in shaping the distribution and population structure of this insect pest. This work presents the first hypothesis test regarding the processes that shaped the current phylogeographic structure of C. hominivorax and represents an alternate perspective on investigating the problem of insect pests. PMID:24098436

  16. Bayesian Analysis of Peak Ground Acceleration Attenuation Relationship

    SciTech Connect

    Mu Heqing; Yuen Kaveng

    2010-05-21

    Estimation of peak ground acceleration is one of the main issues in civil and earthquake engineering practice. The Boore-Joyner-Fumal empirical formula is well known for this purpose. In this paper we propose to use the Bayesian probabilistic model class selection approach to obtain the most suitable prediction model class for the seismic attenuation formula. The optimal model class is robust in the sense that it has balance between the data fitting capability and the sensitivity to noise. A database of strong-motion records is utilized for the analysis. It turns out that the optimal model class is simpler than the full order attenuation model suggested by Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1993).

  17. BASE-9: Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with nine variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Elliot; von Hippel, Ted; Stein, Nathan; Stenning, David; Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel; Si, Shijing; van Dyk, David

    2016-08-01

    The BASE-9 (Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with nine variables) software suite recovers star cluster and stellar parameters from photometry and is useful for analyzing single-age, single-metallicity star clusters, binaries, or single stars, and for simulating such systems. BASE-9 uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique along with brute force numerical integration to estimate the posterior probability distribution for the age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance modulus, line-of-sight absorption, and parameters of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) for a cluster, and for the primary mass, secondary mass (if a binary), and cluster probability for every potential cluster member. The MCMC technique is used for the cluster quantities (the first six items listed above) and numerical integration is used for the stellar quantities (the last three items in the above list).

  18. Bayesian Library for the Analysis of Neutron Diffraction Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratcliff, William; Lesniewski, Joseph; Quintana, Dylan

    During this talk, I will introduce the Bayesian Library for the Analysis of Neutron Diffraction Data. In this library we use of the DREAM algorithm to effectively sample parameter space. This offers several advantages over traditional least squares fitting approaches. It gives us more robust estimates of the fitting parameters, their errors, and their correlations. It also is more stable than least squares methods and provides more confidence in finding a global minimum. I will discuss the algorithm and its application to several materials. I will show applications to both structural and magnetic diffraction patterns. I will present examples of fitting both powder and single crystal data. We would like to acknowledge support from the Department of Commerce and the NSF.

  19. Testing Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium: an objective Bayesian analysis.

    PubMed

    Consonni, Guido; Moreno, Elías; Venturini, Sergio

    2011-01-15

    We analyze the general (multiallelic) Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium problem from an objective Bayesian testing standpoint. We argue that for small or moderate sample sizes the answer is rather sensitive to the prior chosen, and this suggests to carry out a sensitivity analysis with respect to the prior. This goal is achieved through the identification of a class of priors specifically designed for this testing problem. In this paper, we consider the class of intrinsic priors under the full model, indexed by a tuning quantity, the training sample size. These priors are objective, satisfy Savage's continuity condition and have proved to behave extremely well for many statistical testing problems. We compute the posterior probability of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium model for the class of intrinsic priors, assess robustness over the range of plausible answers, as well as stability of the decision in favor of either hypothesis. PMID:20963736

  20. Bayesian analysis of factors associated with fibromyalgia syndrome subjects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jayawardana, Veroni; Mondal, Sumona; Russek, Leslie

    2015-01-01

    Factors contributing to movement-related fear were assessed by Russek, et al. 2014 for subjects with Fibromyalgia (FM) based on the collected data by a national internet survey of community-based individuals. The study focused on the variables, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen (PC-PTSD), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), a Joint Hypermobility Syndrome screen (JHS), Vertigo Symptom Scale (VSS-SF), Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder (OCPD), Pain, work status and physical activity dependent from the "Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire" (FIQR). The study presented in this paper revisits same data with a Bayesian analysis where appropriate priors were introduced for variables selected in the Russek's paper.

  1. The Origins and Maintenance of Female Genital Modification across Africa : Bayesian Phylogenetic Modeling of Cultural Evolution under the Influence of Selection.

    PubMed

    Ross, Cody T; Strimling, Pontus; Ericksen, Karen Paige; Lindenfors, Patrik; Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff

    2016-06-01

    We present formal evolutionary models for the origins and persistence of the practice of Female Genital Modification (FGMo). We then test the implications of these models using normative cross-cultural data on FGMo in Africa and Bayesian phylogenetic methods that explicitly model adaptive evolution. Empirical evidence provides some support for the findings of our evolutionary models that the de novo origins of the FGMo practice should be associated with social stratification, and that social stratification should place selective pressures on the adoption of FGMo; these results, however, are tempered by the finding that FGMo has arisen in many cultures that have no social stratification, and that forces operating orthogonally to stratification appear to play a more important role in the cross-cultural distribution of FGMo. To explain these cases, one must consider cultural evolutionary explanations in conjunction with behavioral ecological ones. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our study for policies designed to end the practice of FGMo. PMID:26846688

  2. The complete mitochondrial genome of the small yellow croaker and partitioned Bayesian analysis of Sciaenidae fish phylogeny

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Yuanzhi; Wang, Rixin; Sun, Yuena; Xu, Tianjun

    2012-01-01

    To understand the phylogenetic position of Larimichthys polyactis within the family Sciaenidae and the phylogeny of this family, the organization of the mitochondrial genome of small yellow croaker was determined herein. The complete, 16,470 bp long, mitochondrial genome contains 37 mitochondrial genes (13 protein-coding, 2 ribosomal RNA and 22 transfer RNA genes), as well as a control region (CR), as in other bony fishes. Comparative analysis of initiation/termination codon usage in mitochondrial protein-coding genes of Percoidei species, indicated that COI in Sciaenidae entails an ATG/AGA codon usage different from other Percoidei fishes, where absence of a typical conserved domain or motif in the control regions is common. Partitioned Bayesian analysis of 618 bp of COI sequences data were used to infer the phylogenetic relationships within the family Sciaenidae. An improvement in harmonic mean -lnL was observed when specific models and parameter estimates were assumed for partitions of the total data. The phylogenetic analyses did not support the monophyly of Otolithes, Argyrosomus, and Argyrosominae. L. polyactis was found to be most closely related to Collichthys niveatus, whereby, according to molecular systematics studies, the relationships within the subfamily Pseudosciaenidae should be reconsidered. PMID:22481894

  3. A Bayesian Seismic Hazard Analysis for the city of Naples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faenza, Licia; Pierdominici, Simona; Hainzl, Sebastian; Cinti, Francesca R.; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Perfetti, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In the last years many studies have been focused on determination and definition of the seismic, volcanic and tsunamogenic hazard in the city of Naples. The reason is that the town of Naples with its neighboring area is one of the most densely populated places in Italy. In addition, the risk is increased also by the type and condition of buildings and monuments in the city. It is crucial therefore to assess which active faults in Naples and surrounding area could trigger an earthquake able to shake and damage the urban area. We collect data from the most reliable and complete databases of macroseismic intensity records (from 79 AD to present). For each seismic event an active tectonic structure has been associated. Furthermore a set of active faults, well-known from geological investigations, located around the study area that they could shake the city, not associated with any earthquake, has been taken into account for our studies. This geological framework is the starting point for our Bayesian seismic hazard analysis for the city of Naples. We show the feasibility of formulating the hazard assessment procedure to include the information of past earthquakes into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This strategy allows on one hand to enlarge the information used in the evaluation of the hazard, from alternative models for the earthquake generation process to past shaking and on the other hand to explicitly account for all kinds of information and their uncertainties. The Bayesian scheme we propose is applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of Naples. We implement five different spatio-temporal models to parameterize the occurrence of earthquakes potentially dangerous for Naples. Subsequently we combine these hazard curves with ShakeMap of past earthquakes that have been felt in Naples. The results are posterior hazard assessment for three exposure times, e.g., 50, 10 and 5 years, in a dense grid that cover the municipality of Naples, considering bedrock soil

  4. Discrete Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis of fMRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Burge, John; Lane, Terran; Link, Hamilton; Qiu, Shibin; Clark, Vincent P.

    2010-01-01

    We examine the efficacy of using discrete Dynamic Bayesian Networks (dDBNs), a data-driven modeling technique employed in machine learning, to identify functional correlations among neuroanatomical regions of interest. Unlike many neuroimaging analysis techniques, this method is not limited by linear and/or Gaussian noise assumptions. It achieves this by modeling the time series of neuroanatomical regions as discrete, as opposed to continuous, random variables with multinomial distributions. We demonstrated this method using an fMRI dataset collected from healthy and demented elderly subjects and identify correlates based on a diagnosis of dementia. The results are validated in three ways. First, the elicited correlates are shown to be robust over leave-one-out cross-validation and, via a Fourier bootstrapping method, that they were not likely due to random chance. Second, the dDBNs identified correlates that would be expected given the experimental paradigm. Third, the dDBN's ability to predict dementia is competitive with two commonly employed machine-learning classifiers: the support vector machine and the Gaussian naïve Bayesian network. We also verify that the dDBN selects correlates based on non-linear criteria. Finally, we provide a brief analysis of the correlates elicited from Buckner et al.'s data that suggests that demented elderly subjects have reduced involvement of entorhinal and occipital cortex and greater involvement of the parietal lobe and amygdala in brain activity compared with healthy elderly (as measured via functional correlations among BOLD measurements). Limitations and extensions to the dDBN method are discussed. PMID:17990301

  5. RECONSTRUCTING EXPOSURE SCENARIOS USING DOSE BIOMARKERS - AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We use Bayesian uncertainty analysis to explore how to estimate pollutant exposures from biomarker concentrations. The growing number of national databases with exposure data makes such an analysis possible. They contain datasets of pharmacokinetic biomarkers for many polluta...

  6. Multivariate meta-analysis of mixed outcomes: a Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Sutton, Alex J; Cooper, Nicola J; Harrison, Mark J; Symmons, Deborah P M; Abrams, Keith R

    2013-09-30

    Multivariate random effects meta-analysis (MRMA) is an appropriate way for synthesizing data from studies reporting multiple correlated outcomes. In a Bayesian framework, it has great potential for integrating evidence from a variety of sources. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for MRMA of mixed outcomes, which extends previously developed bivariate models to the trivariate case and also allows for combination of multiple outcomes that are both continuous and binary. We have constructed informative prior distributions for the correlations by using external evidence. Prior distributions for the within-study correlations were constructed by employing external individual patent data and using a double bootstrap method to obtain the correlations between mixed outcomes. The between-study model of MRMA was parameterized in the form of a product of a series of univariate conditional normal distributions. This allowed us to place explicit prior distributions on the between-study correlations, which were constructed using external summary data. Traditionally, independent 'vague' prior distributions are placed on all parameters of the model. In contrast to this approach, we constructed prior distributions for the between-study model parameters in a way that takes into account the inter-relationship between them. This is a flexible method that can be extended to incorporate mixed outcomes other than continuous and binary and beyond the trivariate case. We have applied this model to a motivating example in rheumatoid arthritis with the aim of incorporating all available evidence in the synthesis and potentially reducing uncertainty around the estimate of interest. PMID:23630081

  7. Hepatitis E Virus Circulation in Italy: Phylogenetic and Evolutionary Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Montesano, Carla; Giovanetti, Marta; Ciotti, Marco; Cella, Eleonora; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Grifoni, Alba; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Angeletti, Silvia; Ciccozzi, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    Background Hepatitis E virus (HEV), a major cause of acute viral hepatitis in developing countries, has been classified into four main genotypes and a number of subtypes. New genotypes have been recently identified in various mammals, including HEV genotype 3, which has a worldwide distribution. It is widespread among pigs in developed countries. Objectives This study investigated the genetic diversity of HEV among humans and swine in Italy. The date of origin and the demographic history of the HEV were also estimated. Materials and Methods A total of 327 HEV sequences of swine and humans from Italy were downloaded from the national centre for biotechnology information. Three different data sets were constructed. The first and the second data set were used to confirm the genotype of the sequences analyzed. The third data set was used to estimate the mean evolutionary rate and to determine the time-scaled phylogeny and demographic history. Results The Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree and the time of the most common recent ancestor estimates showed that the root of the tree dated back to the year 1907 (95% HPD: 1811 - 1975). Two main clades were found, divided into two subclades. Skyline plot analysis, performed separately for human and swine sequences, demonstrated the presence of a bottleneck only in the skyline plot from the swine sequences. Selective pressure analysis revealed only negatively selected sites. Conclusions This study provides support for the hypothesis that humans are probably infected after contact with swine sources. The findings emphasize the importance of checking the country of origin of swine and of improving sanitary control measures from the veterinary standpoint to prevent the spread of HEV infection in Italy. PMID:27226798

  8. Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

    PubMed Central

    Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

    2012-01-01

    Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

  9. Evolutionary and Phylogenetic Analysis of the Hepaciviruses and Pegiviruses.

    PubMed

    Thézé, Julien; Lowes, Sophia; Parker, Joe; Pybus, Oliver G

    2015-11-01

    The known genetic diversity of the hepaciviruses and pegiviruses has increased greatly in recent years through the discovery of viruses related to hepatitis C virus and human pegivirus in bats, bovines, equines, primates, and rodents. Analysis of these new species is important for research into animal models of hepatitis C virus infection and into the zoonotic origins of human viruses. Here, we provide the first systematic phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis of these two genera at the whole-genome level. Phylogenies confirmed that hepatitis C virus is most closely related to viruses from horses whereas human pegiviruses clustered with viruses from African primates. Within each genus, several well-supported lineages were identified and viral diversity was structured by both host species and location of sampling. Recombination analyses provided evidence of interspecific recombination in hepaciviruses, but none in the pegiviruses. Putative mosaic genome structures were identified in NS5B gene region and were supported by multiple tests. The identification of interspecific recombination in the hepaciviruses represents an important evolutionary event that could be clarified by future sampling of novel viruses. We also identified parallel amino acid changes shared by distantly related lineages that infect similar types of host. Notable parallel changes were clustered in the NS3 and NS4B genes and provide a useful starting point for experimental studies of the evolution of Hepacivirus host-virus interactions. PMID:26494702

  10. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian “clock”-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP4∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P4∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P4∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian “tip-dating,” and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between “fixed” and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden “stage of evolution” arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas

  11. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

    PubMed

    Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This

  12. A Bayesian latent group analysis for detecting poor effort in the assessment of malingering.

    PubMed

    Ortega, Alonso; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Lee, Michael D; Markowitsch, Hans J; Piefke, Martina

    2012-06-01

    Despite their theoretical appeal, Bayesian methods for the assessment of poor effort and malingering are still rarely used in neuropsychological research and clinical diagnosis. In this article, we outline a novel and easy-to-use Bayesian latent group analysis of malingering whose goal is to identify participants displaying poor effort when tested. Our Bayesian approach also quantifies the confidence with which each participant is classified and estimates the base rates of malingering from the observed data. We implement our Bayesian approach and compare its utility in effort assessment to that of the classic below-chance criterion of symptom validity testing (SVT). In two experiments, we evaluate the accuracy of both a Bayesian latent group analysis and the below-chance criterion of SVT in recovering the membership of participants assigned to the malingering group. Experiment 1 uses a simulation research design, whereas Experiment 2 involves the differentiation of patients with a history of stroke from coached malingerers. In both experiments, sensitivity levels are high for the Bayesian method, but low for the below-chance criterion of SVT. Additionally, the Bayesian approach proves to be resistant to possible effects of coaching. We conclude that Bayesian latent group methods complement existing methods in making more informed choices about malingering. PMID:22543568

  13. Bayesian analysis of a morphological supermatrix sheds light on controversial fossil hominin relationships.

    PubMed

    Dembo, Mana; Matzke, Nicholas J; Mooers, Arne Ø; Collard, Mark

    2015-08-01

    The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty-use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics--the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships. PMID:26202999

  14. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  15. BEAST 2: A Software Platform for Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bouckaert, Remco; Heled, Joseph; Kühnert, Denise; Vaughan, Tim; Wu, Chieh-Hsi; Xie, Dong; Suchard, Marc A.; Rambaut, Andrew; Drummond, Alexei J.

    2014-01-01

    We present a new open source, extensible and flexible software platform for Bayesian evolutionary analysis called BEAST 2. This software platform is a re-design of the popular BEAST 1 platform to correct structural deficiencies that became evident as the BEAST 1 software evolved. Key among those deficiencies was the lack of post-deployment extensibility. BEAST 2 now has a fully developed package management system that allows third party developers to write additional functionality that can be directly installed to the BEAST 2 analysis platform via a package manager without requiring a new software release of the platform. This package architecture is showcased with a number of recently published new models encompassing birth-death-sampling tree priors, phylodynamics and model averaging for substitution models and site partitioning. A second major improvement is the ability to read/write the entire state of the MCMC chain to/from disk allowing it to be easily shared between multiple instances of the BEAST software. This facilitates checkpointing and better support for multi-processor and high-end computing extensions. Finally, the functionality in new packages can be easily added to the user interface (BEAUti 2) by a simple XML template-based mechanism because BEAST 2 has been re-designed to provide greater integration between the analysis engine and the user interface so that, for example BEAST and BEAUti use exactly the same XML file format. PMID:24722319

  16. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of mango mealybug, Drosicha mangiferae from Punjab.

    PubMed

    Banta, Geetika; Jindal, Vikas; Mohindru, Bharathi; Sharma, Sachin; Kaur, Jaimeet; Gupta, V K

    2016-01-01

    Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) are major pests of a wide range of crops and ornamental plants worldwide. Their high degree of morphological similarity makes them difficult to identify and limits their study and management. In the present study, four Indian populations of mango mealybug (mango, litchi, guava from Gurdaspur and mango from Jalandhar) were analyzed. The mtCOI region was amplified, cloned, the nucleotide sequences were determined and analysed. All the four species were found to be D. mangiferae. The population from Litchi and Mango from Gurdaspur showed 100% homologus sequence. The population of Guava-Gurdaspur and Mango-Jalandhar showed a single mutation of 'C' instead of 'T' at 18th and 196th position, respectively. Indian populations were compared with populations from Pakistan (21) and Japan (1). The phylogenetic tree resulted in two main clusters. Cluster1 represent all the 4 populations of Punjab, India, 20 of Pakistan (Punjab, Sind, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad and Karak districts) with homologous sequences. The two population collected from Faisalabad district of Pakistan and Japan made a separate cluster 2 because the gene sequence used in analysis was from the COI-3p region. However, all the other sequence of D. mangiferae samples under study showed a low nucleotide divergence. The homologus mtCO1 sequence of Indian and Pakistan population concluded that the genetic diversity in mealybug population was quite less over a large geographical area. PMID:26930860

  17. Phylogenetic footprint analysis of IGF2 in extant mammals.

    PubMed

    Weidman, Jennifer R; Murphy, Susan K; Nolan, Catherine M; Dietrich, Fred S; Jirtle, Randy L

    2004-09-01

    Genomic imprinting results in monoallelic gene transcription that is directed by cis-acting regulatory elements epigenetically marked in a parent-of-origin-dependent manner. We performed phylogenetic sequence and epigenetic comparisons of IGF2 between the nonimprinted platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) and imprinted opossum (Didelphis virginiana), mouse (Mus musculus), and human (Homo sapiens) to determine if their divergent imprint status would reflect differences in the conservation of genomic elements important in the regulation of imprinting. We report herein that IGF2 imprinting does not correlate evolutionarily with differential intragenic methylation, nor is it associated with motif 13, a reported IGF2-specific "imprint signature" located in the coding region. Instead, IGF2 imprinting is strongly associated with both the lack of short interspersed transposable elements (SINEs) and an intragenic conserved inverted repeat that contains candidate CTCF-binding sites, a role not previously ascribed to this particular sequence element. Our results are the first to demonstrate that comparative footprint analysis of species from evolutionarily distant mammalian clades, and exhibiting divergent imprint status is a powerful bioinformatics-based approach for identifying cis-acting elements potentially involved not only in the origins of genomic imprinting, but also in its maintenance in humans. PMID:15342558

  18. The phylogenetic analysis of avipoxvirus in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Ha, Hye Jeong; Howe, Laryssa; Alley, Maurice; Gartrell, Brett

    2011-05-12

    Avipoxvirus is known to be endemic in New Zealand and it is a cause of ongoing mortalities in the endangered black robin and shore plover populations. There is no information on the strains of avipoxvirus occurring in New Zealand and their likely origin or pathogenicity. This study was designed to identify the phylogenetic relationships of pathogenic avipoxvirus strains infecting introduced, native, and endemic bird species in New Zealand. Avipoxvirus 4b core protein gene was detected in tissue samples from 25/48 birds (52.1%) from 15 different species in New Zealand. Bootstrap analysis of avipoxvirus 4b core protein gene revealed that the New Zealand avipoxvirus isolates comprised of three different subclades. The majority of New Zealand avipoxvirus isolates (74%) belonged to A1 subclade which shared 100% genetic similarity with the fowlpox HPB strain. An isolate from a wood-pigeon (kereru) belonged to subclade A3, displaying 100% sequence homology to albatrosspox virus. An additional group, isolated from two shore plovers and one South Island saddleback, grouped within subclade B1 and presented 99% sequence homology to European PM33/2007 and Hawaiian HAAM 22.10H8 isolates. The results suggest that a variety of New Zealand bird species are susceptible to avipoxvirus infection, that there are more than two distinctive avipoxvirus subclades in New Zealand, and that the most prevalent A1 strain may have been introduced to New Zealand through introduced avian hosts such as passerines or poultry. PMID:21316164

  19. A Detailed Phylogenetic Analysis of FIV in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Eric A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a lentivirus associated with AIDS-like illnesses in cats and has been used as a model for the study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). A feature of HIV and FIV infection is the continually increasing divergence among viral isolates between different individuals, as well as within the same individuals. Methodology/Principal Findings The goal of this study was to determine the phylogenetic patterns of viral isolates obtained within the United States (U.S.) by focusing on the variable, V3-V4, region of the FIV envelope gene. Conclusions/Significance Data indicate that FIV, from within the U.S., localize to four viral clades, A, B, C, and F. Also shown is the geographic isolation of strains where clade A and clade B are found predominately on the west coast; however, clade B is also found throughout the U.S. and represents the predominant clade. This study presents a complete and conclusive analysis of FIV isolates from within the U.S. and may be used as the essential basis for the development of an effective multi-clade vaccine. PMID:20711253

  20. Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance

  1. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis.

    PubMed

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J E

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089

  2. New Ephemeris for LSI+61 303, A Bayesian Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregory, P. C.

    1997-12-01

    The luminous early-type binary LSI+61 303 is an interesting radio, X-ray and possible gamma-ray source. At radio wavelengths it exhibits periodic outbursts with an approximate period of 26.5 days as well as a longer term modulation of the outburst peaks of approximately 4 years. Recently Paredes et al. have found evidence that the X-ray outbursts are very likely to recur with the same radio outburst period from an analysis of RXTE all sky monitoring data. The system has been observed by many groups at all wavelengths but still the energy source powering the radio outbursts and their relation to the high energy emission remains a mystery. For more details see the "LSI+61 303 Resource Page" at http://www.srl.caltech.edu/personnel/paulr/lsi.html . There has been increasing evidence for a change in the period of the system. We will present a new ephemeris for the system based on a Bayesian analysis of 20 years of radio observations including the GBI-NASA radio monitoring data.

  3. A procedure for seiche analysis with Bayesian information criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aichi, Masaatsu

    2016-04-01

    Seiche is a standing wave in enclosed or semi-enclosed water body. Its amplitude irregularly changes in time due to weather condition etc. Then, extracting seiche signal is not easy by usual methods for time series analysis such as fast Fourier transform (FFT). In this study, a new method for time series analysis with Bayesian information criterion was developed to decompose seiche, tide, long-term trend and residual components from time series data of tide stations. The method was developed based on the maximum marginal likelihood estimation of tide amplitudes, seiche amplitude, and trend components. Seiche amplitude and trend components were assumed that they gradually changes as second derivative in time was close to zero. These assumptions were incorporated as prior distributions. The variances of prior distributions were estimated by minimizing Akaike-Bayes information criterion (ABIC). The frequency of seiche was determined by Newton method with initial guess by FFT. The accuracy of proposed method was checked by analyzing synthetic time series data composed of known components. The reproducibility of the original components was quite well. The proposed method was also applied to the actual time series data of sea level observed by tide station and the strain of coastal rock masses observed by fiber Bragg grating sensor in Aburatsubo Bay, Japan. The seiche in bay and its response of rock masses were successfully extracted.

  4. Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis without histograms: Cumulative distribution and Bayesian approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, Nelson A.; Morero, Lucas D.; Rizzi, Leandro G.

    2015-06-01

    Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis has become an important tool to reveal essential aspects of phase transitions in complex systems. An efficient way to estimate the microcanonical inverse temperature β(E) and the microcanonical entropy S(E) is achieved with the statistical temperature weighted histogram analysis method (ST-WHAM). The strength of this method lies on its flexibility, as it can be used to analyse data produced by algorithms with generalised sampling weights. However, for any sampling weight, ST-WHAM requires the calculation of derivatives of energy histograms H(E) , which leads to non-trivial and tedious binning tasks for models with continuous energy spectrum such as those for biomolecular and colloidal systems. Here, we discuss two alternative methods that avoid the need for such energy binning to obtain continuous estimates for H(E) in order to evaluate β(E) by using ST-WHAM: (i) a series expansion to estimate probability densities from the empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF), and (ii) a Bayesian approach to model this CDF. Comparison with a simple linear regression method is also carried out. The performance of these approaches is evaluated considering coarse-grained protein models for folding and peptide aggregation.

  5. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J. E.

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089

  6. The complete mitochondrial genome of Choristoneura longicellana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and phylogenetic analysis of Lepidoptera.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yu-Peng; Zhao, Jin-Liang; Su, Tian-Juan; Luo, A-Rong; Zhu, Chao-Dong

    2016-10-10

    To better understand the diversity and phylogeny of Lepidoptera, the complete mitochondrial genome of Choristoneura longicellana (=Hoshinoa longicellana) was determined. It is a typical circular duplex molecule with 15,759bp in length, containing the standard metazoan set of 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNA genes, 2 ribosomal RNA genes, and an A+T-rich region. All of the inferred tRNA secondary structures show the common cloverleaf pattern, with the exception of trnS1(AGN), which lacks the DHU arm. The rrnL of C. Longicellana is the longest in sequenced lepidopterans. C. Longicellana has the same gene order as all lepidopteran species currently available in GenBank. There are 5 overlapping regions ranging from 1bp to 8bp and 14 intergenic spacers ranging from 1bp to 48bp. In addition, there are four similar tandem macro-satellite regions with the lengths of 101bp, 98bp, 92bp, and 92bp respectively in the A+T-rich regions of C. longicellana. We sampled 89 species representing 13 superfamilies, and reconstructed their relationship among Lepidoptera by Bayesian Inference and Maximum Likelihood analysis. The topology of the two phylogenetic analysis trees is identical roughly, except for Cossoidea in different locations, the positions of Cossoidea, Copromorphoidea, Gelechioidea, Zygaenoidea were not determined based the limited sampling. (Geometroidea+(Noctuoidea+Bombycoidea)) form the Macrolepidoptera "core". Pyraloidea group with the "core" Macrolepidoptera. Papilionoidea are not Macrolepidoptera. The Hesperiidae (represent Hesperioidea) is nested in the Papilionoidea, and closely related to Pieridae and Papilionidae. The well-known relationship of (Nymphalidae+(Riodinidae+Lycaenidae)) is recovered in this paper. PMID:27390085

  7. Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

    PubMed

    Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

    2016-05-01

    Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27028721

  8. Nuclear stockpile stewardship and Bayesian image analysis (DARHT and the BIE)

    SciTech Connect

    Carroll, James L

    2011-01-11

    Since the end of nuclear testing, the reliability of our nation's nuclear weapon stockpile has been performed using sub-critical hydrodynamic testing. These tests involve some pretty 'extreme' radiography. We will be discussing the challenges and solutions to these problems provided by DARHT (the world's premiere hydrodynamic testing facility) and the BIE or Bayesian Inference Engine (a powerful radiography analysis software tool). We will discuss the application of Bayesian image analysis techniques to this important and difficult problem.

  9. A Bayesian analysis of plutonium exposures in Sellafield workers.

    PubMed

    Puncher, M; Riddell, A E

    2016-03-01

    The joint Russian (Mayak Production Association) and British (Sellafield) plutonium worker epidemiological analysis, undertaken as part of the European Union Framework Programme 7 (FP7) SOLO project, aims to investigate potential associations between cancer incidence and occupational exposures to plutonium using estimates of organ/tissue doses. The dose reconstruction protocol derived for the study makes best use of the most recent biokinetic models derived by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) including a recent update to the human respiratory tract model (HRTM). This protocol was used to derive the final point estimates of absorbed doses for the study. Although uncertainties on the dose estimates were not included in the final epidemiological analysis, a separate Bayesian analysis has been performed for each of the 11 808 Sellafield plutonium workers included in the study in order to assess: A. The reliability of the point estimates provided to the epidemiologists and B. The magnitude of the uncertainty on dose estimates. This analysis, which accounts for uncertainties in biokinetic model parameters, intakes and measurement uncertainties, is described in the present paper. The results show that there is excellent agreement between the point estimates of dose and posterior mean values of dose. However, it is also evident that there are significant uncertainties associated with these dose estimates: the geometric range of the 97.5%:2.5% posterior values are a factor of 100 for lung dose, 30 for doses to liver and red bone marrow, and 40 for intakes: these uncertainties are not reflected in estimates of risk when point doses are used to assess them. It is also shown that better estimates of certain key HRTM absorption parameters could significantly reduce the uncertainties on lung dose in future studies. PMID:26584413

  10. Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

    2000-06-01

    It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies

  11. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

    PubMed

    Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. PMID:26658734

  12. Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2. Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavetski, Dmitri; Kuczera, George; Franks, Stewart W.

    2006-03-01

    The Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology directly addresses both input and output errors in hydrological modeling, requiring the modeler to make explicit, rather than implicit, assumptions about the likely extent of data uncertainty. This study considers a BATEA assessment of two North American catchments: (1) French Broad River and (2) Potomac basins. It assesses the performance of the conceptual Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with and without accounting for input (precipitation) uncertainty. The results show the considerable effects of precipitation errors on the predicted hydrographs (especially the prediction limits) and on the calibrated parameters. In addition, the performance of BATEA in the presence of severe model errors is analyzed. While BATEA allows a very direct treatment of input uncertainty and yields some limited insight into model errors, it requires the specification of valid error models, which are currently poorly understood and require further work. Moreover, it leads to computationally challenging highly dimensional problems. For some types of models, including the VIC implemented using robust numerical methods, the computational cost of BATEA can be reduced using Newton-type methods.

  13. A Bayesian Model for the Analysis of Transgenerational Epigenetic Variation

    PubMed Central

    Varona, Luis; Munilla, Sebastián; Mouresan, Elena Flavia; González-Rodríguez, Aldemar; Moreno, Carlos; Altarriba, Juan

    2015-01-01

    Epigenetics has become one of the major areas of biological research. However, the degree of phenotypic variability that is explained by epigenetic processes still remains unclear. From a quantitative genetics perspective, the estimation of variance components is achieved by means of the information provided by the resemblance between relatives. In a previous study, this resemblance was described as a function of the epigenetic variance component and a reset coefficient that indicates the rate of dissipation of epigenetic marks across generations. Given these assumptions, we propose a Bayesian mixed model methodology that allows the estimation of epigenetic variance from a genealogical and phenotypic database. The methodology is based on the development of a T matrix of epigenetic relationships that depends on the reset coefficient. In addition, we present a simple procedure for the calculation of the inverse of this matrix (T−1) and a Gibbs sampler algorithm that obtains posterior estimates of all the unknowns in the model. The new procedure was used with two simulated data sets and with a beef cattle database. In the simulated populations, the results of the analysis provided marginal posterior distributions that included the population parameters in the regions of highest posterior density. In the case of the beef cattle dataset, the posterior estimate of transgenerational epigenetic variability was very low and a model comparison test indicated that a model that did not included it was the most plausible. PMID:25617408

  14. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  15. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives

    PubMed Central

    Green, Adam W.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. PMID:26658734

  16. Cepheid light curve demography via Bayesian functional data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, Thomas J.; Hendry, Martin; Kowal, Daniel; Ruppert, David

    2016-01-01

    Synoptic time-domain surveys provide astronomers, not simply more data, but a different kind of data: large ensembles of multivariate, irregularly and asynchronously sampled light curves. We describe a statistical framework for light curve demography—optimal accumulation and extraction of information, not only along individual light curves as conventional methods do, but also across large ensembles of related light curves. We build the framework using tools from functional data analysis (FDA), a rapidly growing area of statistics that addresses inference from datasets that sample ensembles of related functions. Our Bayesian FDA framework builds hierarchical models that describe light curve ensembles using multiple levels of randomness: upper levels describe the source population, and lower levels describe the observation process, including measurement errors and selection effects. Roughly speaking, a particular object's light curve is modeled as the sum of a parameterized template component (modeling population-averaged behavior) and a peculiar component (modeling variability across the population), subsequently subjected to an observation model. A functional shrinkage adjustment to individual light curves emerges—an adaptive, functional generalization of the kind of adjustments made for Eddington or Malmquist bias in single-epoch photometric surveys. We describe ongoing work applying the framework to improved estimation of Cepheid variable star luminosities via FDA-based refinement and generalization of the Cepheid period-luminosity relation.

  17. Light curve demography via Bayesian functional data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Hendry, Martin A.; Kowal, Daniel; Ruppert, David

    2015-08-01

    Synoptic time-domain surveys provide astronomers, not simply more data, but a different kind of data: large ensembles of multivariate, irregularly and asynchronously sampled light curves. We describe a statistical framework for light curve demography—optimal accumulation and extraction of information, not only along individual light curves as conventional methods do, but also across large ensembles of related light curves. We build the framework using tools from functional data analysis (FDA), a rapidly growing area of statistics that addresses inference from datasets that sample ensembles of related functions. Our Bayesian FDA framework builds hierarchical models that describe light curve ensembles using multiple levels of randomness: upper levels describe the source population, and lower levels describe the observation process, including measurement errors and selection effects. Schematically, a particular object's light curve is modeled as the sum of a parameterized template component (modeling population-averaged behavior) and a peculiar component (modeling variability across the population), subsequently subjected to an observation model. A functional shrinkage adjustment to individual light curves emerges—an adaptive, functional generalization of the kind of adjustments made for Eddington or Malmquist bias in single-epoch photometric surveys. We are applying the framework to a variety of problems in synoptic time-domain survey astronomy, including optimal detection of weak sources in multi-epoch data, and improved estimation of Cepheid variable star luminosities from detailed demographic modeling of ensembles of Cepheid light curves.

  18. Nonparametric survival analysis using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART).

    PubMed

    Sparapani, Rodney A; Logan, Brent R; McCulloch, Robert E; Laud, Purushottam W

    2016-07-20

    Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a framework for flexible nonparametric modeling of relationships of covariates to outcomes. Recently, BART models have been shown to provide excellent predictive performance, for both continuous and binary outcomes, and exceeding that of its competitors. Software is also readily available for such outcomes. In this article, we introduce modeling that extends the usefulness of BART in medical applications by addressing needs arising in survival analysis. Simulation studies of one-sample and two-sample scenarios, in comparison with long-standing traditional methods, establish face validity of the new approach. We then demonstrate the model's ability to accommodate data from complex regression models with a simulation study of a nonproportional hazards scenario with crossing survival functions and survival function estimation in a scenario where hazards are multiplicatively modified by a highly nonlinear function of the covariates. Using data from a recently published study of patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, we illustrate the use and some advantages of the proposed method in medical investigations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26854022

  19. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  20. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  1. Phyloproteomics: What Phylogenetic Analysis Reveals about Serum Proteomics

    PubMed Central

    Abu-Asab, Mones; Chaouchi, Mohamed; Amri, Hakima

    2008-01-01

    Phyloproteomics is a novel analytical tool that solves the issue of comparability between proteomic analyses, utilizes a total spectrum-parsing algorithm, and produces biologically meaningful classification of specimens. Phyloproteomics employs two algorithms: a new parsing algorithm (UNIPAL) and a phylogenetic algorithm (MIX). By outgroup comparison, the parsing algorithm identifies novel or vanished MS peaks and peaks signifying up or down regulated proteins and scores them as derived or ancestral. The phylogenetic algorithm uses the latter scores to produce a biologically meaningful classification of the specimens. PMID:16944935

  2. Phylogenetic and Molecular Clock Analysis of Dengue Serotype 1 and 3 from New Delhi, India

    PubMed Central

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H.; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Parveen, Shama

    2015-01-01

    Dengue fever is the most prevalent arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. The present report describes molecular detection and serotyping of dengue viruses in acute phase blood samples collected from New Delhi, India. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis of dengue virus serotype 1 and 3 strains were also investigated. Dengue virus infection was detected in 68.87% out of 604 samples tested by RT-PCR between 2011 & 2014. Dengue serotype 1 was detected in 25.48% samples, dengue serotype 2 in 79.56% samples and dengue serotype 3 in 11.29% samples. Dengue serotype 4 was not detected. Co-infection by more than one dengue serotype was detected in 18.26% samples. Envelope gene of 29 DENV-1 and 14 DENV-3 strains were sequenced in the study. All the DENV-1 strains grouped with the American African genotype. All DENV-3 strains were found to belong to Genotype III. Nucleotide substitution rates of dengue 1 and 3 viruses were determined in the study. Time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of dengue 1 viruses was determined to be 132 years. TMRCA of DENV-3 viruses was estimated to be 149 years. Bayesian skyline plots were constructed for Indian DENV-1 and 3 strains which showed a decrease in population size since 2005 in case of DENV- 1 strains while no change was observed in recent years in case of DENV-3 strains. The study also revealed a change in the dominating serotype in Delhi, India in recent years. The study will be helpful in formulating control strategies for the outbreaks. In addition, it will also assist in tracking the movement and evolution of this emerging virus. PMID:26536458

  3. Bayesian analysis of a morphological supermatrix sheds light on controversial fossil hominin relationships

    PubMed Central

    Dembo, Mana; Matzke, Nicholas J.; Mooers, Arne Ø.; Collard, Mark

    2015-01-01

    The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty—use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics—the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships. PMID:26202999

  4. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Bifidobacterium Genus Using Glycolysis Enzyme Sequences.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Katelyn; Barrangou, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    Bifidobacteria are important members of the human gastrointestinal tract that promote the establishment of a healthy microbial consortium in the gut of infants. Recent studies have established that the Bifidobacterium genus is a polymorphic phylogenetic clade, which encompasses a diversity of species and subspecies that encode a broad range of proteins implicated in complex and non-digestible carbohydrate uptake and catabolism, ranging from human breast milk oligosaccharides, to plant fibers. Recent genomic studies have created a need to properly place Bifidobacterium species in a phylogenetic tree. Current approaches, based on core-genome analyses come at the cost of intensive sequencing and demanding analytical processes. Here, we propose a typing method based on sequences of glycolysis genes and the proteins they encode, to provide insights into diversity, typing, and phylogeny in this complex and broad genus. We show that glycolysis genes occur broadly in these genomes, to encode the machinery necessary for the biochemical spine of the cell, and provide a robust phylogenetic marker. Furthermore, glycolytic sequences-based trees are congruent with both the classical 16S rRNA phylogeny, and core genome-based strain clustering. Furthermore, these glycolysis markers can also be used to provide insights into the adaptive evolution of this genus, especially with regards to trends toward a high GC content. This streamlined method may open new avenues for phylogenetic studies on a broad scale, given the widespread occurrence of the glycolysis pathway in bacteria, and the diversity of the sequences they encode. PMID:27242688

  5. Phylogenetic Analysis of the Bifidobacterium Genus Using Glycolysis Enzyme Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Brandt, Katelyn; Barrangou, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    Bifidobacteria are important members of the human gastrointestinal tract that promote the establishment of a healthy microbial consortium in the gut of infants. Recent studies have established that the Bifidobacterium genus is a polymorphic phylogenetic clade, which encompasses a diversity of species and subspecies that encode a broad range of proteins implicated in complex and non-digestible carbohydrate uptake and catabolism, ranging from human breast milk oligosaccharides, to plant fibers. Recent genomic studies have created a need to properly place Bifidobacterium species in a phylogenetic tree. Current approaches, based on core-genome analyses come at the cost of intensive sequencing and demanding analytical processes. Here, we propose a typing method based on sequences of glycolysis genes and the proteins they encode, to provide insights into diversity, typing, and phylogeny in this complex and broad genus. We show that glycolysis genes occur broadly in these genomes, to encode the machinery necessary for the biochemical spine of the cell, and provide a robust phylogenetic marker. Furthermore, glycolytic sequences-based trees are congruent with both the classical 16S rRNA phylogeny, and core genome-based strain clustering. Furthermore, these glycolysis markers can also be used to provide insights into the adaptive evolution of this genus, especially with regards to trends toward a high GC content. This streamlined method may open new avenues for phylogenetic studies on a broad scale, given the widespread occurrence of the glycolysis pathway in bacteria, and the diversity of the sequences they encode. PMID:27242688

  6. Serologic and hexon phylogenetic analysis of ruminant adenoviruses

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objectives of this study were to determine the antigenic relationship among ruminant adenoviruses and determine their phylogenetic relationship based on the deduced hexon gene amino acid sequence. Results of reciprocal cross-neutralization tests demonstrated antigenic relationships in either on...

  7. JBASE: Joint Bayesian Analysis of Subphenotypes and Epistasis

    PubMed Central

    Colak, Recep; Kim, TaeHyung; Kazan, Hilal; Oh, Yoomi; Cruz, Miguel; Valladares-Salgado, Adan; Peralta, Jesus; Escobedo, Jorge; Parra, Esteban J.; Kim, Philip M.; Goldenberg, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Motivation: Rapid advances in genotyping and genome-wide association studies have enabled the discovery of many new genotype–phenotype associations at the resolution of individual markers. However, these associations explain only a small proportion of theoretically estimated heritability of most diseases. In this work, we propose an integrative mixture model called JBASE: joint Bayesian analysis of subphenotypes and epistasis. JBASE explores two major reasons of missing heritability: interactions between genetic variants, a phenomenon known as epistasis and phenotypic heterogeneity, addressed via subphenotyping. Results: Our extensive simulations in a wide range of scenarios repeatedly demonstrate that JBASE can identify true underlying subphenotypes, including their associated variants and their interactions, with high precision. In the presence of phenotypic heterogeneity, JBASE has higher Power and lower Type 1 Error than five state-of-the-art approaches. We applied our method to a sample of individuals from Mexico with Type 2 diabetes and discovered two novel epistatic modules, including two loci each, that define two subphenotypes characterized by differences in body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio. We successfully replicated these subphenotypes and epistatic modules in an independent dataset from Mexico genotyped with a different platform. Availability and implementation: JBASE is implemented in C++, supported on Linux and is available at http://www.cs.toronto.edu/∼goldenberg/JBASE/jbase.tar.gz. The genotype data underlying this study are available upon approval by the ethics review board of the Medical Centre Siglo XXI. Please contact Dr Miguel Cruz at mcruzl@yahoo.com for assistance with the application. Contact: anna.goldenberg@utoronto.ca Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26411870

  8. Bayesian Analysis of Multiple Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel A.; Sarajedini, Ata; von Hippel, Ted; Stenning, David; Piotto, Giampaolo; Milone, Antonino; van Dyk, David A.; Robinson, Elliot; Stein, Nathan

    2016-01-01

    We use GO 13297 Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and archival GO 10775 Cycle 14 HST ACS Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize multiple stellar populations. Determining how globular clusters are able to create and retain enriched material to produce several generations of stars is key to understanding how these objects formed and how they have affected the structural, kinematic, and chemical evolution of the Milky Way. We employ a sophisticated Bayesian technique with an adaptive MCMC algorithm to simultaneously fit the age, distance, absorption, and metallicity for each cluster. At the same time, we also fit unique helium values to two distinct populations of the cluster and determine the relative proportions of those populations. Our unique numerical approach allows objective and precise analysis of these complicated clusters, providing posterior distribution functions for each parameter of interest. We use these results to gain a better understanding of multiple populations in these clusters and their role in the history of the Milky Way.Support for this work was provided by NASA through grant numbers HST-GO-10775 and HST-GO-13297 from the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555. This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNX11AF34G issued through the Office of Space Science. This project was supported by the National Aeronautics & Space Administration through the University of Central Florida's NASA Florida Space Grant Consortium.

  9. Bilateral Chondroepitrochlearis Muscle: Case Report, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Clinical Significance.

    PubMed

    Palagama, Sujeewa P W; Tedman, Raymond A; Barton, Matthew J; Forwood, Mark R

    2016-01-01

    Anomalous muscular variants of pectoralis major have been reported on several occasions in the medical literature. Among them, chondroepitrochlearis is one of the rarest. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive description of its anatomy and subsequent clinical significance, along with its phylogenetic importance in pectoral muscle evolution with regard to primate posture. The authors suggest a more appropriate name to better reflect its proximal attachment to the costochondral junction and distal attachment to the epicondyle of humerus, as "chondroepicondylaris"; in addition, we suggest a new theory of phylogenetic significance to explain the twisting of pectoralis major tendon in primates that may have occurred with their adoption to bipedalism and arboreal lifestyle. Finally, the clinical significance of this aberrant muscle is elaborated as a cause of potential neurovascular entrapment and as a possible hurdle during axillary surgeries (i.e., mastectomy). PMID:27242928

  10. Bilateral Chondroepitrochlearis Muscle: Case Report, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Clinical Significance

    PubMed Central

    Palagama, Sujeewa P. W.; Tedman, Raymond A.; Barton, Matthew J.; Forwood, Mark R.

    2016-01-01

    Anomalous muscular variants of pectoralis major have been reported on several occasions in the medical literature. Among them, chondroepitrochlearis is one of the rarest. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive description of its anatomy and subsequent clinical significance, along with its phylogenetic importance in pectoral muscle evolution with regard to primate posture. The authors suggest a more appropriate name to better reflect its proximal attachment to the costochondral junction and distal attachment to the epicondyle of humerus, as “chondroepicondylaris”; in addition, we suggest a new theory of phylogenetic significance to explain the twisting of pectoralis major tendon in primates that may have occurred with their adoption to bipedalism and arboreal lifestyle. Finally, the clinical significance of this aberrant muscle is elaborated as a cause of potential neurovascular entrapment and as a possible hurdle during axillary surgeries (i.e., mastectomy). PMID:27242928

  11. Phylogenetic analysis of mammalian maximal oxygen consumption during exercise.

    PubMed

    Dlugosz, Elizabeth M; Chappell, Mark A; Meek, Thomas H; Szafranska, Paulina A; Zub, Karol; Konarzewski, Marek; Jones, James H; Bicudo, J Eduardo P W; Nespolo, Roberto F; Careau, Vincent; Garland, Theodore

    2013-12-15

    We compiled published values of mammalian maximum oxygen consumption during exercise ( ) and supplemented these data with new measurements of for the largest rodent (capybara), 20 species of smaller-bodied rodents, two species of weasels and one small marsupial. Many of the new data were obtained with running-wheel respirometers instead of the treadmill systems used in most previous measurements of mammalian . We used both conventional and phylogenetically informed allometric regression models to analyze of 77 'species' (including subspecies or separate populations within species) in relation to body size, phylogeny, diet and measurement method. Both body mass and allometrically mass-corrected showed highly significant phylogenetic signals (i.e. related species tended to resemble each other). The Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size was used to compare 27 candidate models predicting (all of which included body mass). In addition to mass, the two best-fitting models (cumulative Akaike weight=0.93) included dummy variables coding for three species previously shown to have high (pronghorn, horse and a bat), and incorporated a transformation of the phylogenetic branch lengths under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of residual variation (thus indicating phylogenetic signal in the residuals). We found no statistical difference between wheel- and treadmill-elicited values, and diet had no predictive ability for . Averaged across all models, the allometric scaling exponent was 0.839, with 95% confidence limits of 0.795 and 0.883, which does not provide support for a scaling exponent of 0.67, 0.75 or unity. PMID:24031059

  12. Phylogenetic analysis of Elymus (Poaceae) in western China.

    PubMed

    Song, H; Nan, Z B; Tian, P

    2015-01-01

    Elymus L. is often planted in temperate and subtropical regions as forage. Species in the genus have 5 allopolyploid genomes that are found in the grass tribe Triticeae. To determine the phylogenetic relationships in Elymus species from western China, we estimated phylogenetic trees using sequences from the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer and non-coding chloroplast DNA sequences from 56 accessions (871 samples) of 9 polyploid Elymus species and 42 accessions from GenBank. Tetraploid and hexaploid Elymus species from western China had independent origins, and Elymus species from the same area or neighboring geographic regions were the most closely related. Based on the phylogenetic tree topology, the St- and Y-genomes were not derived from the same donor and Y-genome likely originated from the H-genome of Hordeum species, or they shared the same origin or underwent introgression. The maternal genome of tetraploid and hexaploid Elymus species originated from species of Hordeum or Pseudoroegneria. Additionally, Elymus species in western China began diverging 17-8.5 million years ago, during a period of increased aridification as a consequence of the Messinian salinity crisis. Elymus species adapted to drought and high salinity may have developed based on the environmental conditions during this period. Elymus evolution in western China may have been affected by the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (5 million years ago), when Elymus seeds were dispersed by gravity or wind into a newly heterogeneous habitat, resulting in isolation. PMID:26505371

  13. Phylogenetic analysis of the tribe Bovini using microsatellites.

    PubMed

    Ritz, L R; Glowatzki-Mullis, M L; MacHugh, D E; Gaillard, C

    2000-06-01

    The objective of the present study was to determine if the generally accepted phylogenetic relationships in the tribe Bovini correspond to a phylogenetic scheme derived from polymorphisms at 20 bovine microsatellite loci. This study comprises 17 representative populations: eight Bos taurus, two Bos indicus, one Poëphagus, one Bibos, one Bison, three Bubalus and one Syncerus. Phylogenetic analyses using (delta mu)2 and chord (DC) distances revealed substantial divergence among species. Neighbor-joining trees with both distance measures showed only minor differences. Bos taurus and Bos indicus grouped first, followed by Bos frontalis (Mithan) and Bos grunniens (Yak), Bison bison branched off next and Bubalus bubalis and Syncerus caffer emerged as the two most divergent species from the Bos clade. These findings would suggest that Bos, Poëphagus, and Bibos should be integrated into the Bos genus with each group classified as a subgenus. On the other hand, Bison, Bubalus and Syncerus should each be considered a separate genus. Direct estimates of the divergence times were calculated using the (delta mu)2 genetic distance. Bos taurus and Bos indicus were estimated to have diverged 0.31-0.82 MYA, Bos and Poëphagus: 0.57-1.53 MYA, Bos and Bibos: 0.57-1.52 MYA, Bos and Bison: 0.46-1.23 MYA, Bos and Bubalus: 1.85-4.93 MYA and Bos and Syncerus: 0.98-2.61 MYA. PMID:10895308

  14. Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest

    PubMed Central

    Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Forest, Félix; Lucas, Eve

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. Methods Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, ‘geographic state speciation and extinction’, was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. Key Results Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. Conclusions This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside

  15. A Hierarchical Bayesian Procedure for Two-Mode Cluster Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Fong, Duncan K. H.; Liechty, John; Saxton, M. Kim

    2004-01-01

    This manuscript introduces a new Bayesian finite mixture methodology for the joint clustering of row and column stimuli/objects associated with two-mode asymmetric proximity, dominance, or profile data. That is, common clusters are derived which partition both the row and column stimuli/objects simultaneously into the same derived set of clusters.…

  16. Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

    2006-01-01

    We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

  17. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. PMID:26674686

  18. Data for constructing insect genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation.

    PubMed

    Rosenfeld, Jeffrey; Foox, Jonathan; DeSalle, Rob

    2016-03-01

    Twenty one fully sequenced and well annotated insect genomes were used to construct genome content matrices for phylogenetic analysis and functional annotation of insect genomes. To examine the role of e-value cutoff in ortholog determination we used scaled e-value cutoffs and a single linkage clustering approach.. The present communication includes (1) a list of the genomes used to construct the genome content phylogenetic matrices, (2) a nexus file with the data matrices used in phylogenetic analysis, (3) a nexus file with the Newick trees generated by phylogenetic analysis, (4) an excel file listing the Core (CORE) genes and Unique (UNI) genes found in five insect groups, and (5) a figure showing a plot of consistency index (CI) versus percent of unannotated genes that are apomorphies in the data set for gene losses and gains and bar plots of gains and losses for four consistency index (CI) cutoffs. PMID:26862572

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of molecular and morphological data highlights uncertainty in the relationships of fossil and living species of Elopomorpha (Actinopterygii: Teleostei).

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Alex; Friedman, Matt; Near, Thomas J

    2015-08-01

    Elopomorpha is one of the three main clades of living teleost fishes and includes a range of disparate lineages including eels, tarpons, bonefishes, and halosaurs. Elopomorphs were among the first groups of fishes investigated using Hennigian phylogenetic methods and continue to be the object of intense phylogenetic scrutiny due to their economic significance, diversity, and crucial evolutionary status as the sister group of all other teleosts. While portions of the phylogenetic backbone for Elopomorpha are consistent between studies, the relationships among Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes, and Anguilliformes remain contentious and difficult to evaluate. This lack of phylogenetic resolution is problematic as fossil lineages are often described and placed taxonomically based on an assumed sister group relationship between Albula and Pterothrissus. In addition, phylogenetic studies using morphological data that sample elopomorph fossil lineages often do not include notacanthiform or anguilliform lineages, potentially introducing a bias toward interpreting fossils as members of the common stem of Pterothrissus and Albula. Here we provide a phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences sampled from multiple nuclear genes that include representative taxa from Albula, Pterothrissus, Notacanthiformes and Anguilliformes. We integrate our molecular dataset with a morphological character matrix that spans both living and fossil elopomorph lineages. Our results reveal substantial uncertainty in the placement of Pterothrissus as well as all sampled fossil lineages, questioning the stability of the taxonomy of fossil Elopomorpha. However, despite topological uncertainty, our integration of fossil lineages into a Bayesian time calibrated framework provides divergence time estimates for the clade that are consistent with previously published age estimates based on the elopomorph fossil record and molecular estimates resulting from traditional node-dating methods. PMID:25899306

  20. Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Prediction of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis

    PubMed Central

    Wardrop, Nicola A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Gething, Peter W.; Fèvre, Eric M.; Picozzi, Kim; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. Objectives One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters and undertake predictive mapping for risk of high HAT prevalence in future. Materials and Methods Using a spatial analysis in which a generalised linear geostatistical model is used in a Bayesian framework to account explicitly for spatial autocorrelation and incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters we are able to demonstrate a more rigorous analytical approach, potentially resulting in more accurate parameter and significance estimates and increased predictive accuracy, thereby allowing an assessment of the validity of the livestock movement hypothesis given more robust parameter estimation and appropriate assessment of covariate effects. Results Analysis strongly supports the theory that Rhodesian HAT was imported to the study area via the movement of untreated, infected livestock from endemic areas. The confounding effect of health care accessibility on the spatial distribution of Rhodesian HAT and the linkages between the disease's distribution and minimum land surface temperature have also been confirmed via the application of these methods. Conclusions Predictive mapping indicates an

  1. Phylogenetic Analysis of Ruminant Theileria spp. from China Based on 28S Ribosomal RNA Gene

    PubMed Central

    Gou, Huitian; Guan, Guiquan; Ma, Miling; Liu, Aihong; Liu, Zhijie; Xu, Zongke; Ren, Qiaoyun; Li, Youquan; Yang, Jifei; Chen, Ze

    2013-01-01

    Species identification using DNA sequences is the basis for DNA taxonomy. In this study, we sequenced the ribosomal large-subunit RNA gene sequences (3,037-3,061 bp) in length of 13 Chinese Theileria stocks that were infective to cattle and sheep. The complete 28S rRNA gene is relatively difficult to amplify and its conserved region is not important for phylogenetic study. Therefore, we selected the D2-D3 region from the complete 28S rRNA sequences for phylogenetic analysis. Our analyses of 28S rRNA gene sequences showed that the 28S rRNA was useful as a phylogenetic marker for analyzing the relationships among Theileria spp. in ruminants. In addition, the D2-D3 region was a short segment that could be used instead of the whole 28S rRNA sequence during the phylogenetic analysis of Theileria, and it may be an ideal DNA barcode. PMID:24327775

  2. Multigene analysis of lophophorate and chaetognath phylogenetic relationships.

    PubMed

    Helmkampf, Martin; Bruchhaus, Iris; Hausdorf, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses of seven concatenated fragments of nuclear-encoded housekeeping genes indicate that Lophotrochozoa is monophyletic, i.e., the lophophorate groups Bryozoa, Brachiopoda and Phoronida are more closely related to molluscs and annelids than to Deuterostomia or Ecdysozoa. Lophophorates themselves, however, form a polyphyletic assemblage. The hypotheses that they are monophyletic and more closely allied to Deuterostomia than to Protostomia can be ruled out with both the approximately unbiased test and the expected likelihood weights test. The existence of Phoronozoa, a putative clade including Brachiopoda and Phoronida, has also been rejected. According to our analyses, phoronids instead share a more recent common ancestor with bryozoans than with brachiopods. Platyhelminthes is the sister group of Lophotrochozoa. Together these two constitute Spiralia. Although Chaetognatha appears as the sister group of Priapulida within Ecdysozoa in our analyses, alternative hypothesis concerning chaetognath relationships could not be rejected. PMID:17937996

  3. A Bayesian Solution for Two-Way Analysis of Variance. ACT Technical Bulletin No. 8.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindley, Dennis V.

    The standard statistical analysis of data classified in two ways (say into rows and columns) is through an analysis of variance that splits the total variation of the data into the main effect of rows, the main effect of columns, and the interaction between rows and columns. This paper presents an alternative Bayesian analysis of the same…

  4. Phylogenetic analysis of nitrite, nitric oxide, and nitrous oxide respiratory enzymes reveal a complex evolutionary history for denitrification.

    PubMed

    Jones, Christopher M; Stres, Blaz; Rosenquist, Magnus; Hallin, Sara

    2008-09-01

    Denitrification is a facultative respiratory pathway in which nitrite (NO2(-)), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are successively reduced to nitrogen gas (N(2)), effectively closing the nitrogen cycle. The ability to denitrify is widely dispersed among prokaryotes, and this polyphyletic distribution has raised the possibility of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) having a substantial role in the evolution of denitrification. Comparisons of 16S rRNA and denitrification gene phylogenies in recent studies support this possibility; however, these results remain speculative as they are based on visual comparisons of phylogenies from partial sequences. We reanalyzed publicly available nirS, nirK, norB, and nosZ partial sequences using Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference. Concomitant analysis of denitrification genes with 16S rRNA sequences from the same organisms showed substantial differences between the trees, which were supported by examining the posterior probability of monophyletic constraints at different taxonomic levels. Although these differences suggest HGT of denitrification genes, the presence of structural variants for nirK, norB, and nosZ makes it difficult to determine HGT from other evolutionary events. Additional analysis using phylogenetic networks and likelihood ratio tests of phylogenies based on full-length sequences retrieved from genomes also revealed significant differences in tree topologies among denitrification and 16S rRNA gene phylogenies, with the exception of the nosZ gene phylogeny within the data set of the nirK-harboring genomes. However, inspection of codon usage and G + C content plots from complete genomes gave no evidence for recent HGT. Instead, the close proximity of denitrification gene copies in the genomes of several denitrifying bacteria suggests duplication. Although HGT cannot be ruled out as a factor in the evolution of denitrification genes, our analysis suggests that other phenomena, such gene

  5. Probability Steiner trees and maximum parsimony in phylogenetic analysis.

    PubMed

    Weng, J F; Mareels, I; Thomas, D A

    2012-06-01

    The phylogenetic tree (PT) problem has been studied by a number of researchers as an application of the Steiner tree problem, a well-known network optimisation problem. Of all the methods developed for phylogenies the maximum parsimony (MP) method is a simple and commonly used method because it relies on directly observable changes in the input nucleotide or amino acid sequences. In this paper we show that the non-uniqueness of the evolutionary pathways in the MP method leads us to consider a new model of PTs. In this so-called probability representation model, for each site a node in a PT is modelled by a probability distribution of nucleotide or amino acid states, and hence the PT at a given site is a probability Steiner tree, i.e. a Steiner tree in a high-dimensional vector space. In spite of the generality of the probability representation model, in this paper we restrict our study to constructing probability phylogenetic trees (PPT) using the parsimony criterion, as well as discussing and comparing our approach with the classical MP method. We show that for a given input set although the optimal topology as well as the total tree length of the PPT is the same as the PT constructed by the classical MP method, the inferred ancestral states and branch lengths are different and the results given by our method provide a plausible alternative to the classical ones. PMID:21706222

  6. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

    PubMed Central

    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

  7. Objective Bayesian fMRI analysis-a pilot study in different clinical environments.

    PubMed

    Magerkurth, Joerg; Mancini, Laura; Penny, William; Flandin, Guillaume; Ashburner, John; Micallef, Caroline; De Vita, Enrico; Daga, Pankaj; White, Mark J; Buckley, Craig; Yamamoto, Adam K; Ourselin, Sebastien; Yousry, Tarek; Thornton, John S; Weiskopf, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Functional MRI (fMRI) used for neurosurgical planning delineates functionally eloquent brain areas by time-series analysis of task-induced BOLD signal changes. Commonly used frequentist statistics protect against false positive results based on a p-value threshold. In surgical planning, false negative results are equally if not more harmful, potentially masking true brain activity leading to erroneous resection of eloquent regions. Bayesian statistics provides an alternative framework, categorizing areas as activated, deactivated, non-activated or with low statistical confidence. This approach has not yet found wide clinical application partly due to the lack of a method to objectively define an effect size threshold. We implemented a Bayesian analysis framework for neurosurgical planning fMRI. It entails an automated effect-size threshold selection method for posterior probability maps accounting for inter-individual BOLD response differences, which was calibrated based on the frequentist results maps thresholded by two clinical experts. We compared Bayesian and frequentist analysis of passive-motor fMRI data from 10 healthy volunteers measured on a pre-operative 3T and an intra-operative 1.5T MRI scanner. As a clinical case study, we tested passive motor task activation in a brain tumor patient at 3T under clinical conditions. With our novel effect size threshold method, the Bayesian analysis revealed regions of all four categories in the 3T data. Activated region foci and extent were consistent with the frequentist analysis results. In the lower signal-to-noise ratio 1.5T intra-operative scanner data, Bayesian analysis provided improved brain-activation detection sensitivity compared with the frequentist analysis, albeit the spatial extents of the activations were smaller than at 3T. Bayesian analysis of fMRI data using operator-independent effect size threshold selection may improve the sensitivity and certainty of information available to guide neurosurgery

  8. A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

    2012-01-01

    1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

  9. Phylogenetic Analysis of Seven WRKY Genes across the Palm Subtribe Attaleinae (Arecaceae) Identifies Syagrus as Sister Group of the Coconut

    PubMed Central

    Meerow, Alan W.; Noblick, Larry; Borrone, James W.; Couvreur, Thomas L. P.; Mauro-Herrera, Margarita; Hahn, William J.; Kuhn, David N.; Nakamura, Kyoko; Oleas, Nora H.; Schnell, Raymond J.

    2009-01-01

    Background The Cocoseae is one of 13 tribes of Arecaceae subfam. Arecoideae, and contains a number of palms with significant economic importance, including the monotypic and pantropical Cocos nucifera L., the coconut, the origins of which have been one of the “abominable mysteries” of palm systematics for decades. Previous studies with predominantly plastid genes weakly supported American ancestry for the coconut but ambiguous sister relationships. In this paper, we use multiple single copy nuclear loci to address the phylogeny of the Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, and resolve the closest extant relative of the coconut. Methodology/Principal Findings We present the results of combined analysis of DNA sequences of seven WRKY transcription factor loci across 72 samples of Arecaceae tribe Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae, representing all genera classified within the subtribe, and three outgroup taxa with maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian approaches, producing highly congruent and well-resolved trees that robustly identify the genus Syagrus as sister to Cocos and resolve novel and well-supported relationships among the other genera of the Attaleinae. We also address incongruence among the gene trees with gene tree reconciliation analysis, and assign estimated ages to the nodes of our tree. Conclusions/Significance This study represents the as yet most extensive phylogenetic analyses of Cocoseae subtribe Attaleinae. We present a well-resolved and supported phylogeny of the subtribe that robustly indicates a sister relationship between Cocos and Syagrus. This is not only of biogeographic interest, but will also open fruitful avenues of inquiry regarding evolution of functional genes useful for crop improvement. Establishment of two major clades of American Attaleinae occurred in the Oligocene (ca. 37 MYBP) in Eastern Brazil. The divergence of Cocos from Syagrus is estimated at 35 MYBP. The biogeographic and morphological congruence that we see for

  10. Evolutionary ecology of specialization: insights from phylogenetic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Vamosi, Jana C.; Armbruster, W. Scott; Renner, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    In this Special feature, we assemble studies that illustrate phylogenetic approaches to studying salient questions regarding the effect of specialization on lineage diversification. The studies use an array of techniques involving a wide-ranging collection of biological systems (plants, butterflies, fish and amphibians are all represented). Their results reveal that macroevolutionary examination of specialization provides insight into the patterns of trade-offs in specialized systems; in particular, the genetic mechanisms of trade-offs appear to extend to very different aspects of life history in different groups. In turn, because a species may be a specialist from one perspective and a generalist in others, these trade-offs influence whether we perceive specialization to have effects on the evolutionary success of a lineage when we examine specialization only along a single axis. Finally, how geographical range influences speciation and extinction of specialist lineages remains a question offering much potential for further insight. PMID:25274367