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Sample records for bayesian random-effects model

  1. A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

    2006-01-01

    Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a

  2. Exploring neighborhood influences on small-area variations in intimate partner violence risk: a Bayesian random-effects modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lladosa, Silvia; Lila, Marisol

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses spatial data of cases of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) to examine neighborhood-level influences on small-area variations in IPVAW risk in a police district of the city of Valencia (Spain). To analyze area variations in IPVAW risk and its association with neighborhood-level explanatory variables we use a Bayesian spatial random-effects modeling approach, as well as disease mapping methods to represent risk probabilities in each area. Analyses show that IPVAW cases are more likely in areas of high immigrant concentration, high public disorder and crime, and high physical disorder. Results also show a spatial component indicating remaining variability attributable to spatially structured random effects. Bayesian spatial modeling offers a new perspective to identify IPVAW high and low risk areas, and provides a new avenue for the design of better-informed prevention and intervention strategies. PMID:24413701

  3. Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lladosa, Silvia; Lila, Marisol

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses spatial data of cases of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) to examine neighborhood-level influences on small-area variations in IPVAW risk in a police district of the city of Valencia (Spain). To analyze area variations in IPVAW risk and its association with neighborhood-level explanatory variables we use a Bayesian spatial random-effects modeling approach, as well as disease mapping methods to represent risk probabilities in each area. Analyses show that IPVAW cases are more likely in areas of high immigrant concentration, high public disorder and crime, and high physical disorder. Results also show a spatial component indicating remaining variability attributable to spatially structured random effects. Bayesian spatial modeling offers a new perspective to identify IPVAW high and low risk areas, and provides a new avenue for the design of better-informed prevention and intervention strategies. PMID:24413701

  4. Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

    PubMed

    Chan, Jennifer S K

    2016-05-01

    Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. PMID:26467236

  5. Random effects and shrinkage estimation in capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Link, W.A.

    2002-01-01

    We discuss the analysis of random effects in capture-recapture models, and outline Bayesian and frequentists approaches to their analysis. Under a normal model, random effects estimators derived from Bayesian or frequentist considerations have a common form as shrinkage estimators. We discuss some of the difficulties of analysing random effects using traditional methods, and argue that a Bayesian formulation provides a rigorous framework for dealing with these difficulties. In capture-recapture models, random effects may provide a parsimonious compromise between constant and completely time-dependent models for the parameters (e.g. survival probability). We consider application of random effects to band-recovery models, although the principles apply to more general situations, such as Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. We illustrate these ideas using a commonly analysed band recovery data set.

  6. Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. PMID:24269863

  7. Bayesian estimation in animal breeding using the Dirichlet process prior for correlated random effects

    PubMed Central

    2003-01-01

    In the case of the mixed linear model the random effects are usually assumed to be normally distributed in both the Bayesian and classical frameworks. In this paper, the Dirichlet process prior was used to provide nonparametric Bayesian estimates for correlated random effects. This goal was achieved by providing a Gibbs sampler algorithm that allows these correlated random effects to have a nonparametric prior distribution. A sampling based method is illustrated. This method which is employed by transforming the genetic covariance matrix to an identity matrix so that the random effects are uncorrelated, is an extension of the theory and the results of previous researchers. Also by using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation a simulation procedure was derived for estimating the precision parameter M associated with the Dirichlet process prior. All needed conditional posterior distributions are given. To illustrate the application, data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were analysed. A total of 3325 weaning weight records from the progeny of 101 sires were used. PMID:12633530

  8. The Random-Effect DINA Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    The DINA (deterministic input, noisy, and gate) model has been widely used in cognitive diagnosis tests and in the process of test development. The outcomes known as slip and guess are included in the DINA model function representing the responses to the items. This study aimed to extend the DINA model by using the random-effect approach to allow…

  9. Random-effects models for longitudinal data

    SciTech Connect

    Laird, N.M.; Ware, J.H.

    1982-12-01

    Models for the analysis of longitudinal data must recognize the relationship between serial observations on the same unit. Multivariate models with general covariance structure are often difficult to apply to highly unbalanced data, whereas two-stage random-effects models can be used easily. In two-stage models, the probability distributions for the response vectors of different individuals belong to a single family, but some random-effects parameters vary across individuals, with a distribution specified at the second stage. A general family of models is discussed, which includes both growth models and repeated-measures models as special cases. A unified approach to fitting these models, based on a combination of empirical Bayes and maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters and using the EM algorithm, is discussed. Two examples are taken from a current epidemiological study of the health effects of air pollution.

  10. Bayesian regression analysis of data with random effects covariates from nonlinear longitudinal measurements

    PubMed Central

    De la Cruz, Rolando; Meza, Cristian; Arribas-Gil, Ana; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2016-01-01

    Joint models for a wide class of response variables and longitudinal measurements consist on a mixed-effects model to fit longitudinal trajectories whose random effects enter as covariates in a generalized linear model for the primary response. They provide a useful way to assess association between these two kinds of data, which in clinical studies are often collected jointly on a series of individuals and may help understanding, for instance, the mechanisms of recovery of a certain disease or the efficacy of a given therapy. When a nonlinear mixed-effects model is used to fit the longitudinal trajectories, the existing estimation strategies based on likelihood approximations have been shown to exhibit some computational efficiency problems (De la Cruz et al., 2011). In this article we consider a Bayesian estimation procedure for the joint model with a nonlinear mixed-effects model for the longitudinal data and a generalized linear model for the primary response. The proposed prior structure allows for the implementation of an MCMC sampler. Moreover, we consider that the errors in the longitudinal model may be correlated. We apply our method to the analysis of hormone levels measured at the early stages of pregnancy that can be used to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes. We also conduct a simulation study to assess the importance of modelling correlated errors and quantify the consequences of model misspecification. PMID:27274601

  11. An Evaluation of Information Criteria Use for Correct Cross-Classified Random Effects Model Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Murphy, Daniel L.

    2013-01-01

    The authors assessed correct model identification rates of Akaike's information criterion (AIC), corrected criterion (AICC), consistent AIC (CAIC), Hannon and Quinn's information criterion (HQIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for selecting among cross-classified random effects models. Performance of default values for the 5…

  12. A random effects epidemic-type aftershock sequence model.

    PubMed

    Lin, Feng-Chang

    2011-04-01

    We consider an extension of the temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with random effects as a special case of a well-known doubly stochastic self-exciting point process. The new model arises from a deterministic function that is randomly scaled by a nonnegative random variable, which is unobservable but assumed to follow either positive stable or one-parameter gamma distribution with unit mean. Both random effects models are of interest although the one-parameter gamma random effects model is more popular when modeling associated survival times. Our estimation is based on the maximum likelihood approach with marginalized intensity. The methods are shown to perform well in simulation experiments. When applied to an earthquake sequence on the east coast of Taiwan, the extended model with positive stable random effects provides a better model fit, compared to the original ETAS model and the extended model with one-parameter gamma random effects. PMID:24039322

  13. A Gompertzian model with random effects to cervical cancer growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni; Rosli, Norhayati

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian model with random effects is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via maximum likehood estimation. We apply 4-stage Runge-Kutta (SRK4) for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of the cervical cancer growth. Low values of root mean-square error (RMSE) of Gompertzian model with random effect indicate good fits.

  14. A Gompertzian model with random effects to cervical cancer growth

    SciTech Connect

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni; Rosli, Norhayati

    2015-05-15

    In this paper, a Gompertzian model with random effects is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via maximum likehood estimation. We apply 4-stage Runge-Kutta (SRK4) for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of the cervical cancer growth. Low values of root mean-square error (RMSE) of Gompertzian model with random effect indicate good fits.

  15. Performance of Random Effects Model Estimators under Complex Sampling Designs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we consider estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs. Incorporation of sampling weights is one way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection. Several weighting methods have been proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of…

  16. The Random-Effect Generalized Rating Scale Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung; Wu, Shiu-Lien

    2011-01-01

    Rating scale items have been widely used in educational and psychological tests. These items require people to make subjective judgments, and these subjective judgments usually involve randomness. To account for this randomness, Wang, Wilson, and Shih proposed the random-effect rating scale model in which the threshold parameters are treated as…

  17. Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models

    PubMed Central

    Krivitsky, Pavel N.; Handcock, Mark S.; Raftery, Adrian E.; Hoff, Peter D.

    2009-01-01

    Social network data often involve transitivity, homophily on observed attributes, clustering, and heterogeneity of actor degrees. We propose a latent cluster random effects model to represent all of these features, and we describe a Bayesian estimation method for it. The model is applicable to both binary and non-binary network data. We illustrate the model using two real datasets. We also apply it to two simulated network datasets with the same, highly skewed, degree distribution, but very different network behavior: one unstructured and the other with transitivity and clustering. Models based on degree distributions, such as scale-free, preferential attachment and power-law models, cannot distinguish between these very different situations, but our model does. PMID:20191087

  18. Identification of dynamical biological systems based on random effects models.

    PubMed

    Batista, Levy; Bastogne, Thierry; Djermoune, El-Hadi

    2015-01-01

    System identification is a data-driven modeling approach more and more used in biology and biomedicine. In this application context, each assay is always repeated to estimate the response variability. The inference of the modeling conclusions to the whole population requires to account for the inter-individual variability within the modeling procedure. One solution consists in using random effects models but up to now no similar approach exists in the field of dynamical system identification. In this article, we propose a new solution based on an ARX (Auto Regressive model with eXternal inputs) structure using the EM (Expectation-Maximisation) algorithm for the estimation of the model parameters. Simulations show the relevance of this solution compared with a classical procedure of system identification repeated for each subject. PMID:26736981

  19. Bayesian Model Selection for Group Studies

    PubMed Central

    Stephan, Klaas Enno; Penny, Will D.; Daunizeau, Jean; Moran, Rosalyn J.; Friston, Karl J.

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian model selection (BMS) is a powerful method for determining the most likely among a set of competing hypotheses about the mechanisms that generated observed data. BMS has recently found widespread application in neuroimaging, particularly in the context of dynamic causal modelling (DCM). However, so far, combining BMS results from several subjects has relied on simple (fixed effects) metrics, e.g. the group Bayes factor (GBF), that do not account for group heterogeneity or outliers. In this paper, we compare the GBF with two random effects methods for BMS at the between-subject or group level. These methods provide inference on model-space using a classical and Bayesian perspective respectively. First, a classical (frequentist) approach uses the log model evidence as a subject-specific summary statistic. This enables one to use analysis of variance to test for differences in log-evidences over models, relative to inter-subject differences. We then consider the same problem in Bayesian terms and describe a novel hierarchical model, which is optimised to furnish a probability density on the models themselves. This new variational Bayes method rests on treating the model as a random variable and estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution which describes the probabilities for all models considered. These probabilities then define a multinomial distribution over model space, allowing one to compute how likely it is that a specific model generated the data of a randomly chosen subject as well as the exceedance probability of one model being more likely than any other model. Using empirical and synthetic data, we show that optimising a conditional density of the model probabilities, given the log-evidences for each model over subjects, is more informative and appropriate than both the GBF and frequentist tests of the log-evidences. In particular, we found that the hierarchical Bayesian approach is considerably more robust than either of the other

  20. Modeling Randomness in Judging Rating Scales with a Random-Effects Rating Scale Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung; Wilson, Mark; Shih, Ching-Lin

    2006-01-01

    This study presents the random-effects rating scale model (RE-RSM) which takes into account randomness in the thresholds over persons by treating them as random-effects and adding a random variable for each threshold in the rating scale model (RSM) (Andrich, 1978). The RE-RSM turns out to be a special case of the multidimensional random…

  1. A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in HIV dynamical models.

    PubMed

    Putter, H; Heisterkamp, S H; Lange, J M A; de Wolf, F

    2002-08-15

    In the context of a mathematical model describing HIV infection, we discuss a Bayesian modelling approach to a non-linear random effects estimation problem. The model and the data exhibit a number of features that make the use of an ordinary non-linear mixed effects model intractable: (i) the data are from two compartments fitted simultaneously against the implicit numerical solution of a system of ordinary differential equations; (ii) data from one compartment are subject to censoring; (iii) random effects for one variable are assumed to be from a beta distribution. We show how the Bayesian framework can be exploited by incorporating prior knowledge on some of the parameters, and by combining the posterior distributions of the parameters to obtain estimates of quantities of interest that follow from the postulated model. PMID:12210633

  2. Random-effects models for serial observations with binary response

    SciTech Connect

    Stiratelli, R.; Laird, N.; Ware, J.H.

    1984-12-01

    This paper presents a general mixed model for the analysis of serial dichotomous responses provided by a panel of study participants. Each subject's serial responses are assumed to arise from a logistic model, but with regression coefficients that vary between subjects. The logistic regression parameters are assumed to be normally distributed in the population. Inference is based upon maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects and variance components, and empirical Bayes estimation of random effects. Exact solutions are analytically and computationally infeasible, but an approximation based on the mode of the posterior distribution of the random parameters is proposed, and is implemented by means of the EM algorithm. This approximate method is compared with a simpler two-step method proposed by Korn and Whittemore, using data from a panel study of asthmatics originally described in that paper. One advantage of the estimation strategy described here is the ability to use all of the data, including that from subjects with insufficient data to permit fitting of a separate logistic regression model, as required by the Korn and Whittemore method. However, the new method is computationally intensive.

  3. Semiparametric Bayesian inference on skew-normal joint modeling of multivariate longitudinal and survival data.

    PubMed

    Tang, An-Min; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2015-02-28

    We propose a semiparametric multivariate skew-normal joint model for multivariate longitudinal and multivariate survival data. One main feature of the posited model is that we relax the commonly used normality assumption for random effects and within-subject error by using a centered Dirichlet process prior to specify the random effects distribution and using a multivariate skew-normal distribution to specify the within-subject error distribution and model trajectory functions of longitudinal responses semiparametrically. A Bayesian approach is proposed to simultaneously obtain Bayesian estimates of unknown parameters, random effects and nonparametric functions by combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Particularly, a Bayesian local influence approach is developed to assess the effect of minor perturbations to within-subject measurement error and random effects. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies. PMID:25404574

  4. Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies.

    PubMed

    Friston, Karl J; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E; van Wijk, Bernadette C M; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

    2016-03-01

    This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

  5. Bayesian model reduction and empirical Bayes for group (DCM) studies

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl J.; Litvak, Vladimir; Oswal, Ashwini; Razi, Adeel; Stephan, Klaas E.; van Wijk, Bernadette C.M.; Ziegler, Gabriel; Zeidman, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. PMID:26569570

  6. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  7. SnIPRE: selection inference using a Poisson random effects model.

    PubMed

    Eilertson, Kirsten E; Booth, James G; Bustamante, Carlos D

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach for identifying genes under natural selection using polymorphism and divergence data from synonymous and non-synonymous sites within genes. A generalized linear mixed model is used to model the genome-wide variability among categories of mutations and estimate its functional consequence. We demonstrate how the model's estimated fixed and random effects can be used to identify genes under selection. The parameter estimates from our generalized linear model can be transformed to yield population genetic parameter estimates for quantities including the average selection coefficient for new mutations at a locus, the synonymous and non-synynomous mutation rates, and species divergence times. Furthermore, our approach incorporates stochastic variation due to the evolutionary process and can be fit using standard statistical software. The model is fit in both the empirical Bayes and Bayesian settings using the lme4 package in R, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in WinBUGS. Using simulated data we compare our method to existing approaches for detecting genes under selection: the McDonald-Kreitman test, and two versions of the Poisson random field based method MKprf. Overall, we find our method universally outperforms existing methods for detecting genes subject to selection using polymorphism and divergence data. PMID:23236270

  8. SnIPRE: Selection Inference Using a Poisson Random Effects Model

    PubMed Central

    Eilertson, Kirsten E.; Booth, James G.; Bustamante, Carlos D.

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach for identifying genes under natural selection using polymorphism and divergence data from synonymous and non-synonymous sites within genes. A generalized linear mixed model is used to model the genome-wide variability among categories of mutations and estimate its functional consequence. We demonstrate how the model's estimated fixed and random effects can be used to identify genes under selection. The parameter estimates from our generalized linear model can be transformed to yield population genetic parameter estimates for quantities including the average selection coefficient for new mutations at a locus, the synonymous and non-synynomous mutation rates, and species divergence times. Furthermore, our approach incorporates stochastic variation due to the evolutionary process and can be fit using standard statistical software. The model is fit in both the empirical Bayes and Bayesian settings using the lme4 package in R, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in WinBUGS. Using simulated data we compare our method to existing approaches for detecting genes under selection: the McDonald-Kreitman test, and two versions of the Poisson random field based method MKprf. Overall, we find our method universally outperforms existing methods for detecting genes subject to selection using polymorphism and divergence data. PMID:23236270

  9. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

  10. Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.

    PubMed

    Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

    2012-01-01

    The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine. PMID:23750070

  11. Bayesian kinematic earthquake source models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.; Genrich, J. F.; Galetzka, J. E.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Comte, D.; Glass, B.; Leiva, C.; Ortega, F. H.

    2009-12-01

    Most coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic slip models are based on highly regularized optimizations which yield one solution which satisfies the data given a particular set of regularizing constraints. This regularization hampers our ability to answer basic questions such as whether seismic and aseismic slip overlap or instead rupture separate portions of the fault zone. We present a Bayesian methodology for generating kinematic earthquake source models with a focus on large subduction zone earthquakes. Unlike classical optimization approaches, Bayesian techniques sample the ensemble of all acceptable models presented as an a posteriori probability density function (PDF), and thus we can explore the entire solution space to determine, for example, which model parameters are well determined and which are not, or what is the likelihood that two slip distributions overlap in space. Bayesian sampling also has the advantage that all a priori knowledge of the source process can be used to mold the a posteriori ensemble of models. Although very powerful, Bayesian methods have up to now been of limited use in geophysical modeling because they are only computationally feasible for problems with a small number of free parameters due to what is called the "curse of dimensionality." However, our methodology can successfully sample solution spaces of many hundreds of parameters, which is sufficient to produce finite fault kinematic earthquake models. Our algorithm is a modification of the tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (tempered MCMC or TMCMC) method. In our algorithm, we sample a "tempered" a posteriori PDF using many MCMC simulations running in parallel and evolutionary computation in which models which fit the data poorly are preferentially eliminated in favor of models which better predict the data. We present results for both synthetic test problems as well as for the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake, the latter of which is constrained by InSAR, local high

  12. Frequentist tests for Bayesian models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucy, L. B.

    2016-04-01

    Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical parameters, when the first experiment provides the prior for the second. In a related analysis, a quantitative measure is derived for judging the degree of tension between two different experiments with partially overlapping parameter vectors.

  13. A likelihood reformulation method in non-normal random effects models.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lei; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2008-07-20

    In this paper, we propose a practical computational method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for mixed models with non-normal random effects. By simply multiplying and dividing a standard normal density, we reformulate the likelihood conditional on the non-normal random effects to that conditional on the normal random effects. Gaussian quadrature technique, conveniently implemented in SAS Proc NLMIXED, can then be used to carry out the estimation process. Our method substantially reduces computational time, while yielding similar estimates to the probability integral transformation method (J. Comput. Graphical Stat. 2006; 15:39-57). Furthermore, our method can be applied to more general situations, e.g. finite mixture random effects or correlated random effects from Clayton copula. Simulations and applications are presented to illustrate our method. PMID:18038445

  14. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M.; Pyper, Cecilia

    2016-01-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple’s biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  15. A Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects disease progression model

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Seongho; Jang, Hyejeong; Wu, Dongfeng; Abrams, Judith

    2016-01-01

    A nonlinear mixed-effects approach is developed for disease progression models that incorporate variation in age in a Bayesian framework. We further generalize the probability model for sensitivity to depend on age at diagnosis, time spent in the preclinical state and sojourn time. The developed models are then applied to the Johns Hopkins Lung Project data and the Health Insurance Plan for Greater New York data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and are compared with the estimation method that does not consider random-effects from age. Using the developed models, we obtain not only age-specific individual-level distributions, but also population-level distributions of sensitivity, sojourn time and transition probability. PMID:26798562

  16. Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Brothers, Alan J.

    2011-03-28

    This paper describes a body of work developed over the past five years. The work addresses the use of Bayesian network (BN) models for representing and predicting social/organizational behaviors. The topics covered include model construction, validation, and use. These topics show the bulk of the lifetime of such model, beginning with construction, moving to validation and other aspects of model ‘critiquing’, and finally demonstrating how the modeling approach might be used to inform policy analysis. To conclude, we discuss limitations of using BN for this activity and suggest remedies to address those limitations. The primary benefits of using a well-developed computational, mathematical, and statistical modeling structure, such as BN, are 1) there are significant computational, theoretical and capability bases on which to build 2) ability to empirically critique the model, and potentially evaluate competing models for a social/behavioral phenomena.

  17. Standard errors for EM estimates in generalized linear models with random effects.

    PubMed

    Friedl, H; Kauermann, G

    2000-09-01

    A procedure is derived for computing standard errors of EM estimates in generalized linear models with random effects. Quadrature formulas are used to approximate the integrals in the EM algorithm, where two different approaches are pursued, i.e., Gauss-Hermite quadrature in the case of Gaussian random effects and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for an unspecified random effect distribution. An approximation of the expected Fisher information matrix is derived from an expansion of the EM estimating equations. This allows for inferential arguments based on EM estimates, as demonstrated by an example and simulations. PMID:10985213

  18. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  19. MOMENT-BASED METHOD FOR RANDOM EFFECTS SELECTION IN LINEAR MIXED MODELS

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, Mihye; Lu, Wenbin

    2012-01-01

    The selection of random effects in linear mixed models is an important yet challenging problem in practice. We propose a robust and unified framework for automatically selecting random effects and estimating covariance components in linear mixed models. A moment-based loss function is first constructed for estimating the covariance matrix of random effects. Two types of shrinkage penalties, a hard thresholding operator and a new sandwich-type soft-thresholding penalty, are then imposed for sparse estimation and random effects selection. Compared with existing approaches, the new procedure does not require any distributional assumption on the random effects and error terms. We establish the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator in terms of its consistency in both random effects selection and variance component estimation. Optimization strategies are suggested to tackle the computational challenges involved in estimating the sparse variance-covariance matrix. Furthermore, we extend the procedure to incorporate the selection of fixed effects as well. Numerical results show promising performance of the new approach in selecting both random and fixed effects and, consequently, improving the efficiency of estimating model parameters. Finally, we apply the approach to a data set from the Amsterdam Growth and Health study. PMID:23105913

  20. Mixed model analysis of censored longitudinal data with flexible random-effects density

    PubMed Central

    Vock, David M.; Davidian, Marie; Tsiatis, Anastasios A.; Muir, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Mixed models are commonly used to represent longitudinal or repeated measures data. An additional complication arises when the response is censored, for example, due to limits of quantification of the assay used. While Gaussian random effects are routinely assumed, little work has characterized the consequences of misspecifying the random-effects distribution nor has a more flexible distribution been studied for censored longitudinal data. We show that, in general, maximum likelihood estimators will not be consistent when the random-effects density is misspecified, and the effect of misspecification is likely to be greatest when the true random-effects density deviates substantially from normality and the number of noncensored observations on each subject is small. We develop a mixed model framework for censored longitudinal data in which the random effects are represented by the flexible seminonparametric density and show how to obtain estimates in SAS procedure NLMIXED. Simulations show that this approach can lead to reduction in bias and increase in efficiency relative to assuming Gaussian random effects. The methods are demonstrated on data from a study of hepatitis C virus. PMID:21914727

  1. Cross-Classified Random Effects Models in Institutional Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyers, Laura E.

    2012-01-01

    Multilevel modeling offers researchers a rich array of tools that can be used for a variety of purposes, such as analyzing specific institutional issues, looking for macro-level trends, and helping to shape and inform educational policy. One of the more complex multilevel modeling tools available to institutional researchers is cross-classified…

  2. Multilevel models for survival analysis with random effects.

    PubMed

    Yau, K K

    2001-03-01

    A method for modeling survival data with multilevel clustering is described. The Cox partial likelihood is incorporated into the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) methodology. Parameter estimation is achieved by maximizing a log likelihood analogous to the likelihood associated with the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) at the initial step of estimation and is extended to obtain residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimators of the variance component. Estimating equations for a three-level hierarchical survival model are developed in detail, and such a model is applied to analyze a set of chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) data on recurrent infections as an illustration with both hospital and patient effects being considered as random. Only the latter gives a significant contribution. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the REML estimators. Further extension of the estimation procedure to models with an arbitrary number of levels is also discussed. PMID:11252624

  3. Random-Effects Regression Models for Clustered Data with an Example From Smoking Prevention Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedeker, Donald; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Proposes random-effects regression model for analysis of clustered data. Suggests model assumes some dependency of within-cluster data. Model adjusts effects for resulting dependency from data clustering. Describes maximum marginal likelihood solution. Discusses available statistical software. Demonstrates model via investigation involving…

  4. A Mixture Proportional Hazards Model with Random Effects for Response Times in Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias

    2016-01-01

    In this article, a new model for test response times is proposed that combines latent class analysis and the proportional hazards model with random effects in a similar vein as the mixture factor model. The model assumes the existence of different latent classes. In each latent class, the response times are distributed according to a…

  5. Revisiting Fixed- and Random-Effects Models: Some Considerations for Policy-Relevant Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Paul; Crawford, Claire; Steele, Fiona; Vignoles, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The use of fixed (FE) and random effects (RE) in two-level hierarchical linear regression is discussed in the context of education research. We compare the robustness of FE models with the modelling flexibility and potential efficiency of those from RE models. We argue that the two should be seen as complementary approaches. We then compare both…

  6. Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models.

    PubMed

    Rutter, Carolyn M; Miglioretti, Diana L; Savarino, James E

    2009-12-01

    Microsimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include parameters that are not well informed by existing data. Therefore, a key component of model development is the choice of parameter values. Microsimulation model parameter values are selected to reproduce expected or known results though the process of model calibration. Calibration may be done by perturbing model parameters one at a time or by using a search algorithm. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to calibrate microsimulation models that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach converges to the target distribution and use a simulation study to demonstrate its finite-sample performance. Although computationally intensive, this approach has several advantages over previously proposed methods, including the use of statistical criteria to select parameter values, simultaneous calibration of multiple parameters to multiple data sources, incorporation of information via prior distributions, description of parameter identifiability, and the ability to obtain interval estimates of model parameters. We develop a microsimulation model for colorectal cancer and use our proposed method to calibrate model parameters. The microsimulation model provides a good fit to the calibration data. We find evidence that some parameters are identified primarily through prior distributions. Our results underscore the need to incorporate multiple sources of variability (i.e., due to calibration data, unknown parameters, and estimated parameters and predicted values) when calibrating and applying microsimulation models. PMID:20076767

  7. Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models

    PubMed Central

    Rutter, Carolyn M.; Miglioretti, Diana L.; Savarino, James E.

    2009-01-01

    Microsimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include parameters that are not well informed by existing data. Therefore, a key component of model development is the choice of parameter values. Microsimulation model parameter values are selected to reproduce expected or known results though the process of model calibration. Calibration may be done by perturbing model parameters one at a time or by using a search algorithm. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to calibrate microsimulation models that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach converges to the target distribution and use a simulation study to demonstrate its finite-sample performance. Although computationally intensive, this approach has several advantages over previously proposed methods, including the use of statistical criteria to select parameter values, simultaneous calibration of multiple parameters to multiple data sources, incorporation of information via prior distributions, description of parameter identifiability, and the ability to obtain interval estimates of model parameters. We develop a microsimulation model for colorectal cancer and use our proposed method to calibrate model parameters. The microsimulation model provides a good fit to the calibration data. We find evidence that some parameters are identified primarily through prior distributions. Our results underscore the need to incorporate multiple sources of variability (i.e., due to calibration data, unknown parameters, and estimated parameters and predicted values) when calibrating and applying microsimulation models. PMID:20076767

  8. Mixed-Effects Modeling with Crossed Random Effects for Subjects and Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baayen, R. H.; Davidson, D. J.; Bates, D. M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an introduction to mixed-effects models for the analysis of repeated measurement data with subjects and items as crossed random effects. A worked-out example of how to use recent software for mixed-effects modeling is provided. Simulation studies illustrate the advantages offered by mixed-effects analyses compared to…

  9. A Flexible Two-Part Random Effects Model for Correlated Medical Costs

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Lei; Cowen, Mark E.; Strawderman, Robert L.; Shih, Ya-Chen T.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a flexible “two-part” random Effects model (Olsen and Schafer 2001; Tooze, Grunwald, and Jones 2002) for correlated medical cost data. Typically, medical cost data are right-skewed, involve a substantial proportion of zero values, and may exhibit heteroscedasticity. In many cases, such data is also obtained in hierarchical form, e.g., on patients served by the same physician. The proposed model specification therefore consists of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), linked together by correlated random Effects. Respectively, and conditionally on the random Effects and covariates, we model the odds of cost being positive (Part I) using a GLMM with a logistic link and the mean cost (Part II) given that costs were actually incurred using a generalized gamma regression model with random Effects and a scale parameter that is allowed to depend on covariates (c.f. Manning, Basu, and Mullahy 2005). The class of generalized gamma distributions is very flexible and includes the lognormal, gamma, inverse gamma and Weibull distributions as special cases. We demonstrate how to carry out estimation using the Gaussian quadrature techniques conveniently implemented in SAS Proc NLMIXED. The proposed model is used to analyze pharmacy cost data on 56,245 adult patients clustered within 239 physicians in a mid-western U.S. managed care organization. PMID:20015560

  10. Sparse Bayesian infinite factor models

    PubMed Central

    Bhattacharya, A.; Dunson, D. B.

    2011-01-01

    We focus on sparse modelling of high-dimensional covariance matrices using Bayesian latent factor models. We propose a multiplicative gamma process shrinkage prior on the factor loadings which allows introduction of infinitely many factors, with the loadings increasingly shrunk towards zero as the column index increases. We use our prior on a parameter-expanded loading matrix to avoid the order dependence typical in factor analysis models and develop an efficient Gibbs sampler that scales well as data dimensionality increases. The gain in efficiency is achieved by the joint conjugacy property of the proposed prior, which allows block updating of the loadings matrix. We propose an adaptive Gibbs sampler for automatically truncating the infinite loading matrix through selection of the number of important factors. Theoretical results are provided on the support of the prior and truncation approximation bounds. A fast algorithm is proposed to produce approximate Bayes estimates. Latent factor regression methods are developed for prediction and variable selection in applications with high-dimensional correlated predictors. Operating characteristics are assessed through simulation studies, and the approach is applied to predict survival times from gene expression data. PMID:23049129

  11. Joint estimation of multiple disease-specific sensitivities and specificities via crossed random effects models for correlated reader-based diagnostic data: application of data cloning.

    PubMed

    Withanage, Niroshan; de Leon, Alexander R; Rudnisky, Christopher J

    2015-12-20

    We present a model for describing correlated binocular data from reader-based diagnostic studies, where the same group of readers evaluates the presence or absence of certain diseases on binocular organs (e.g., fellow eyes) of patients. Multiple random effects are incorporated to meaningfully delineate various associations in the data including crossed random effects to account for reader-specific variability and to incorporate cross correlations. To overcome the computational complexity involved in the evaluation and maximization of the marginal likelihood, we adopt the data cloning approach, which calculates maximum likelihood estimates under the Bayesian paradigm. The bias and efficiency of the estimates are assessed in two simulation studies. We apply our model to data from a diabetic retinopathy study. PMID:26179660

  12. Estimation of the Nonlinear Random Coefficient Model when Some Random Effects Are Separable

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Cudeck, Robert

    2009-01-01

    A method is presented for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of the nonlinear random coefficient model when the response function has some linear parameters. This is done by writing the marginal distribution of the repeated measures as a conditional distribution of the response given the nonlinear random effects. The resulting distribution…

  13. The Impact of Five Missing Data Treatments on a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoelzle, Braden R.

    2012-01-01

    The present study compared the performance of five missing data treatment methods within a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model environment under various levels and patterns of missing data given a specified sample size. Prior research has shown the varying effect of missing data treatment options within the context of numerous statistical…

  14. Firm-Related Training Tracks: A Random Effects Ordered Probit Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groot, Wim; van den Brink, Henriette Maassen

    2003-01-01

    A random effects ordered response model of training is estimated to analyze the existence of training tracks and time varying coefficients in training frequency. Two waves of a Dutch panel survey of workers are used covering the period 1992-1996. The amount of training received by workers increased during the period 1994-1996 compared to…

  15. Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

    PubMed

    Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. PMID:22633143

  16. Clustering of time-course gene expression profiles using normal mixture models with autoregressive random effects

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Time-course gene expression data such as yeast cell cycle data may be periodically expressed. To cluster such data, currently used Fourier series approximations of periodic gene expressions have been found not to be sufficiently adequate to model the complexity of the time-course data, partly due to their ignoring the dependence between the expression measurements over time and the correlation among gene expression profiles. We further investigate the advantages and limitations of available models in the literature and propose a new mixture model with autoregressive random effects of the first order for the clustering of time-course gene-expression profiles. Some simulations and real examples are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed models. Results We illustrate the applicability of our new model using synthetic and real time-course datasets. We show that our model outperforms existing models to provide more reliable and robust clustering of time-course data. Our model provides superior results when genetic profiles are correlated. It also gives comparable results when the correlation between the gene profiles is weak. In the applications to real time-course data, relevant clusters of coregulated genes are obtained, which are supported by gene-function annotation databases. Conclusions Our new model under our extension of the EMMIX-WIRE procedure is more reliable and robust for clustering time-course data because it adopts a random effects model that allows for the correlation among observations at different time points. It postulates gene-specific random effects with an autocorrelation variance structure that models coregulation within the clusters. The developed R package is flexible in its specification of the random effects through user-input parameters that enables improved modelling and consequent clustering of time-course data. PMID:23151154

  17. Estimating anatomical trajectories with Bayesian mixed-effects modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ziegler, G.; Penny, W.D.; Ridgway, G.R.; Ourselin, S.; Friston, K.J.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a mass-univariate framework for the analysis of whole-brain structural trajectories using longitudinal Voxel-Based Morphometry data and Bayesian inference. Our approach to developmental and aging longitudinal studies characterizes heterogeneous structural growth/decline between and within groups. In particular, we propose a probabilistic generative model that parameterizes individual and ensemble average changes in brain structure using linear mixed-effects models of age and subject-specific covariates. Model inversion uses Expectation Maximization (EM), while voxelwise (empirical) priors on the size of individual differences are estimated from the data. Bayesian inference on individual and group trajectories is realized using Posterior Probability Maps (PPM). In addition to parameter inference, the framework affords comparisons of models with varying combinations of model order for fixed and random effects using model evidence. We validate the model in simulations and real MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) project. We further demonstrate how subject specific characteristics contribute to individual differences in longitudinal volume changes in healthy subjects, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and Alzheimer's Disease (AD). PMID:26190405

  18. Estimating anatomical trajectories with Bayesian mixed-effects modeling.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, G; Penny, W D; Ridgway, G R; Ourselin, S; Friston, K J

    2015-11-01

    We introduce a mass-univariate framework for the analysis of whole-brain structural trajectories using longitudinal Voxel-Based Morphometry data and Bayesian inference. Our approach to developmental and aging longitudinal studies characterizes heterogeneous structural growth/decline between and within groups. In particular, we propose a probabilistic generative model that parameterizes individual and ensemble average changes in brain structure using linear mixed-effects models of age and subject-specific covariates. Model inversion uses Expectation Maximization (EM), while voxelwise (empirical) priors on the size of individual differences are estimated from the data. Bayesian inference on individual and group trajectories is realized using Posterior Probability Maps (PPM). In addition to parameter inference, the framework affords comparisons of models with varying combinations of model order for fixed and random effects using model evidence. We validate the model in simulations and real MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) project. We further demonstrate how subject specific characteristics contribute to individual differences in longitudinal volume changes in healthy subjects, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and Alzheimer's Disease (AD). PMID:26190405

  19. Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

  20. Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Yang, Kui; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-10-01

    Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded. PMID:26847949

  1. An efficient technique for Bayesian modeling of family data using the BUGS software

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Harold T.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola

    2014-01-01

    Linear mixed models have become a popular tool to analyze continuous data from family-based designs by using random effects that model the correlation of subjects from the same family. However, mixed models for family data are challenging to implement with the BUGS (Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling) software because of the high-dimensional covariance matrix of the random effects. This paper describes an efficient parameterization that utilizes the singular value decomposition of the covariance matrix of random effects, includes the BUGS code for such implementation, and extends the parameterization to generalized linear mixed models. The implementation is evaluated using simulated data and an example from a large family-based study is presented with a comparison to other existing methods. PMID:25477899

  2. An Integrated Bayesian Model for DIF Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soares, Tufi M.; Goncalves, Flavio B.; Gamerman, Dani

    2009-01-01

    In this article, an integrated Bayesian model for differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is proposed. The model is integrated in the sense of modeling the responses along with the DIF analysis. This approach allows DIF detection and explanation in a simultaneous setup. Previous empirical studies and/or subjective beliefs about the item…

  3. Semiparametric Transformation Models with Random Effects for Joint Analysis of Recurrent and Terminal Events

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Donglin; Lin, D. Y.

    2011-01-01

    Summary We propose a broad class of semiparametric transformation models with random effects for the joint analysis of recurrent events and a terminal event. The transformation models include proportional hazards/intensity and proportional odds models. We estimate the model parameters by the nonparametric maximum likelihood approach. The estimators are shown to be consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient. Simple and stable numerical algorithms are provided to calculate the parameter estimators and to estimate their variances. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed inference procedures perform well in realistic settings. Applications to two HIV/AIDS studies are presented. PMID:18945267

  4. Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette

    2002-01-01

    Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…

  5. Survey of Bayesian Models for Modelling of Stochastic Temporal Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Ng, B

    2006-10-12

    This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

  6. Calibration of crash risk models on freeways with limited real-time traffic data using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chengcheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Li, Zhibin

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to develop a real-time crash risk model with limited data in China by using Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian inference approach. A systematic review was first conducted by using three different Bayesian meta-analyses, including the fixed effect meta-analysis, the random effect meta-analysis, and the meta-regression. The meta-analyses provided a numerical summary of the effects of traffic variables on crash risks by quantitatively synthesizing results from previous studies. The random effect meta-analysis and the meta-regression produced a more conservative estimate for the effects of traffic variables compared with the fixed effect meta-analysis. Then, the meta-analyses results were used as informative priors for developing crash risk models with limited data. Three different meta-analyses significantly affect model fit and prediction accuracy. The model based on meta-regression can increase the prediction accuracy by about 15% as compared to the model that was directly developed with limited data. Finally, the Bayesian predictive densities analysis was used to identify the outliers in the limited data. It can further improve the prediction accuracy by 5.0%. PMID:26468977

  7. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. PMID:26945109

  8. Blast-related mild traumatic brain injury: a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis on the cognitive outcomes of concussion among military personnel.

    PubMed

    Karr, Justin E; Areshenkoff, Corson N; Duggan, Emily C; Garcia-Barrera, Mauricio A

    2014-12-01

    Throughout their careers, many soldiers experience repeated blasts exposures from improvised explosive devices, which often involve head injury. Consequentially, blast-related mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) has become prevalent in modern conflicts, often occuring co-morbidly with psychiatric illness (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD]). In turn, a growing body of research has begun to explore the cognitive and psychiatric sequelae of blast-related mTBI. The current meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the chronic effects of blast-related mTBI on cognitive performance. A systematic review identified 9 studies reporting 12 samples meeting eligibility criteria. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was conducted with cognitive construct and PTSD symptoms explored as moderators. The overall posterior mean effect size and Highest Density Interval (HDI) came to d = -0.12 [-0.21, -0.04], with executive function (-0.16 [-0.31, 0.00]), verbal delayed memory (-0.19 [-0.44, 0.06]) and processing speed (-0.11 [-0.26, 0.01]) presenting as the most sensitive cognitive domains to blast-related mTBI. When dividing executive function into diverse sub-constructs (i.e., working memory, inhibition, set-shifting), set-shifting presented the largest effect size (-0.33 [-0.55, -0.05]). PTSD symptoms did not predict cognitive effects sizes, β PTSD  = -0.02 [-0.23, 0.20]. The results indicate a subtle, but chronic cognitive impairment following mTBI, especially in set-shifting, a relevant aspect of executive attention. These findings are consistent with past meta-analyses on multiple mTBI and correspond with past neuroimaging research on the cognitive correlates of white matter damage common in mTBI. However, all studies had cross-sectional designs, which resulted in universally low quality ratings and limited the conclusions inferable from this meta-analysis. PMID:25253505

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian model updating for structural identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak; Lombaert, Geert; Papadimitriou, Costas

    2015-12-01

    A new probabilistic finite element (FE) model updating technique based on Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is proposed for identification of civil structural systems under changing ambient/environmental conditions. The performance of the proposed technique is investigated for (1) uncertainty quantification of model updating parameters, and (2) probabilistic damage identification of the structural systems. Accurate estimation of the uncertainty in modeling parameters such as mass or stiffness is a challenging task. Several Bayesian model updating frameworks have been proposed in the literature that can successfully provide the "parameter estimation uncertainty" of model parameters with the assumption that there is no underlying inherent variability in the updating parameters. However, this assumption may not be valid for civil structures where structural mass and stiffness have inherent variability due to different sources of uncertainty such as changing ambient temperature, temperature gradient, wind speed, and traffic loads. Hierarchical Bayesian model updating is capable of predicting the overall uncertainty/variability of updating parameters by assuming time-variability of the underlying linear system. A general solution based on Gibbs Sampler is proposed to estimate the joint probability distributions of the updating parameters. The performance of the proposed Hierarchical approach is evaluated numerically for uncertainty quantification and damage identification of a 3-story shear building model. Effects of modeling errors and incomplete modal data are considered in the numerical study.

  10. Normativity, interpretation, and Bayesian models

    PubMed Central

    Oaksford, Mike

    2014-01-01

    It has been suggested that evaluative normativity should be expunged from the psychology of reasoning. A broadly Davidsonian response to these arguments is presented. It is suggested that two distinctions, between different types of rationality, are more permeable than this argument requires and that the fundamental objection is to selecting theories that make the most rational sense of the data. It is argued that this is inevitable consequence of radical interpretation where understanding others requires assuming they share our own norms of reasoning. This requires evaluative normativity and it is shown that when asked to evaluate others’ arguments participants conform to rational Bayesian norms. It is suggested that logic and probability are not in competition and that the variety of norms is more limited than the arguments against evaluative normativity suppose. Moreover, the universality of belief ascription suggests that many of our norms are universal and hence evaluative. It is concluded that the union of evaluative normativity and descriptive psychology implicit in Davidson and apparent in the psychology of reasoning is a good thing. PMID:24860519

  11. Technology diffusion in hospitals: a log odds random effects regression model.

    PubMed

    Blank, Jos L T; Valdmanis, Vivian G

    2015-01-01

    This study identifies the factors that affect the diffusion of hospital innovations. We apply a log odds random effects regression model on hospital micro data. We introduce the concept of clustering innovations and the application of a log odds random effects regression model to describe the diffusion of technologies. We distinguish a number of determinants, such as service, physician, and environmental, financial and organizational characteristics of the 60 Dutch hospitals in our sample. On the basis of this data set on Dutch general hospitals over the period 1995-2002, we conclude that there is a relation between a number of determinants and the diffusion of innovations underlining conclusions from earlier research. Positive effects were found on the basis of the size of the hospitals, competition and a hospital's commitment to innovation. It appears that if a policy is developed to further diffuse innovations, the external effects of demand and market competition need to be examined, which would de facto lead to an efficient use of technology. For the individual hospital, instituting an innovations office appears to be the most prudent course of action. PMID:24323484

  12. Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

  13. A Bayesian Model of Sensory Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Sato, Yoshiyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies reported two opposite types of adaptation in temporal perception. Here, we propose a Bayesian model of sensory adaptation that exhibits both types of adaptation. We regard adaptation as the adaptive updating of estimations of time-evolving variables, which determine the mean value of the likelihood function and that of the prior distribution in a Bayesian model of temporal perception. On the basis of certain assumptions, we can analytically determine the mean behavior in our model and identify the parameters that determine the type of adaptation that actually occurs. The results of our model suggest that we can control the type of adaptation by controlling the statistical properties of the stimuli presented. PMID:21541346

  14. NIMROD: a program for inference via a normal approximation of the posterior in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations.

    PubMed

    Prague, Mélanie; Commenges, Daniel; Guedj, Jérémie; Drylewicz, Julia; Thiébaut, Rodolphe

    2013-08-01

    Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) are widespread tools for describing dynamical systems. In biomedical sciences, data from each subject can be sparse making difficult to precisely estimate individual parameters by standard non-linear regression but information can often be gained from between-subjects variability. This makes natural the use of mixed-effects models to estimate population parameters. Although the maximum likelihood approach is a valuable option, identifiability issues favour Bayesian approaches which can incorporate prior knowledge in a flexible way. However, the combination of difficulties coming from the ODE system and from the presence of random effects raises a major numerical challenge. Computations can be simplified by making a normal approximation of the posterior to find the maximum of the posterior distribution (MAP). Here we present the NIMROD program (normal approximation inference in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations) devoted to the MAP estimation in ODE models. We describe the specific implemented features such as convergence criteria and an approximation of the leave-one-out cross-validation to assess the model quality of fit. In pharmacokinetics models, first, we evaluate the properties of this algorithm and compare it with FOCE and MCMC algorithms in simulations. Then, we illustrate NIMROD use on Amprenavir pharmacokinetics data from the PUZZLE clinical trial in HIV infected patients. PMID:23764196

  15. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  16. A Bayesian model for visual space perception

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.

    1972-01-01

    A model for visual space perception is proposed that contains desirable features in the theories of Gibson and Brunswik. This model is a Bayesian processor of proximal stimuli which contains three important elements: an internal model of the Markov process describing the knowledge of the distal world, the a priori distribution of the state of the Markov process, and an internal model relating state to proximal stimuli. The universality of the model is discussed and it is compared with signal detection theory models. Experimental results of Kinchla are used as a special case.

  17. Bayesian population modeling of drug dosing adherence.

    PubMed

    Fellows, Kelly; Stoneking, Colin J; Ramanathan, Murali

    2015-10-01

    Adherence is a frequent contributing factor to variations in drug concentrations and efficacy. The purpose of this work was to develop an integrated population model to describe variation in adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence to dosing regimens. The hybrid Markov chain-von Mises method for modeling adherence in individual subjects was extended to the population setting using a Bayesian approach. Four integrated population models for overall adherence, the two-state Markov chain transition parameters, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were formulated and critically compared. The Markov chain-Monte Carlo algorithm was used for identifying distribution parameters and for simulations. The model was challenged with medication event monitoring system data for 207 hypertension patients. The four Bayesian models demonstrated good mixing and convergence characteristics. The distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were markedly non-normal and diverse. The models varied in complexity and the method used to incorporate inter-dependence with the preceding dose in the two-state Markov chain. The model that incorporated a cooperativity term for inter-dependence and a hyperbolic parameterization of the transition matrix probabilities was identified as the preferred model over the alternatives. The simulated probability densities from the model satisfactorily fit the observed probability distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence parameters in the sample patients. The model also adequately described the median and observed quartiles for these parameters. The Bayesian model for adherence provides a parsimonious, yet integrated, description of adherence in populations. It may find potential applications in clinical trial simulations and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. PMID:26319548

  18. Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, David; Mukherjee, Pia; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2006-06-15

    We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index n{sub S} and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that n{sub S}{ne}1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of n{sub S}{ne}1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n{sub S}=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.

  19. Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

    PubMed

    Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach. PMID:26442771

  20. Bayesian spatial modeling of HIV mortality via zero-inflated Poisson models.

    PubMed

    Musal, Muzaffer; Aktekin, Tevfik

    2013-01-30

    In this paper, we investigate the effects of poverty and inequality on the number of HIV-related deaths in 62 New York counties via Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models that exhibit spatial dependence. We quantify inequality via the Theil index and poverty via the ratios of two Census 2000 variables, the number of people under the poverty line and the number of people for whom poverty status is determined, in each Zip Code Tabulation Area. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of inequality and poverty in addition to spatial dependence between neighboring regions on HIV mortality rate, which can lead to improved health resource allocation decisions. In modeling county-specific HIV counts, we propose Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models whose rates are functions of both covariate and spatial/random effects. To show how the proposed models work, we used three different publicly available data sets: TIGER Shapefiles, Census 2000, and mortality index files. In addition, we introduce parameter estimation issues of Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models and discuss MCMC method implications. PMID:22807006

  1. Bayesian Nonparametric Models for Multiway Data Analysis.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zenglin; Yan, Feng; Qi, Yuan

    2015-02-01

    Tensor decomposition is a powerful computational tool for multiway data analysis. Many popular tensor decomposition approaches-such as the Tucker decomposition and CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP)-amount to multi-linear factorization. They are insufficient to model (i) complex interactions between data entities, (ii) various data types (e.g., missing data and binary data), and (iii) noisy observations and outliers. To address these issues, we propose tensor-variate latent nonparametric Bayesian models for multiway data analysis. We name these models InfTucker. These new models essentially conduct Tucker decomposition in an infinite feature space. Unlike classical tensor decomposition models, our new approaches handle both continuous and binary data in a probabilistic framework. Unlike previous Bayesian models on matrices and tensors, our models are based on latent Gaussian or t processes with nonlinear covariance functions. Moreover, on network data, our models reduce to nonparametric stochastic blockmodels and can be used to discover latent groups and predict missing interactions. To learn the models efficiently from data, we develop a variational inference technique and explore properties of the Kronecker product for computational efficiency. Compared with a classical variational implementation, this technique reduces both time and space complexities by several orders of magnitude. On real multiway and network data, our new models achieved significantly higher prediction accuracy than state-of-art tensor decomposition methods and blockmodels. PMID:26353255

  2. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis.

    PubMed

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J E

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089

  3. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J. E.

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed. PMID:27092089

  4. On Bayesian estimation of marginal structural models.

    PubMed

    Saarela, Olli; Stephens, David A; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weighting in estimation of marginal treatment effects is to construct a pseudo-population without imbalances in measured covariates, thus removing the effects of confounding and informative censoring when performing inference. In this article, we formalize the notion of such a pseudo-population as a data generating mechanism with particular characteristics, and show that this leads to a natural Bayesian interpretation of IPT weighted estimation. Using this interpretation, we are able to propose the first fully Bayesian procedure for estimating parameters of marginal structural models using an IPT weighting. Our approach suggests that the weights should be derived from the posterior predictive treatment assignment and censoring probabilities, answering the question of whether and how the uncertainty in the estimation of the weights should be incorporated in Bayesian inference of marginal treatment effects. The proposed approach is compared to existing methods in simulated data, and applied to an analysis of the Canadian Co-infection Cohort. PMID:25677103

  5. Bayesian Kinematic Finite Fault Source Models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    Finite fault earthquake source models are inherently under-determined: there is no unique solution to the inverse problem of determining the rupture history at depth as a function of time and space when our data are only limited observations at the Earth's surface. Traditional inverse techniques rely on model constraints and regularization to generate one model from the possibly broad space of all possible solutions. However, Bayesian methods allow us to determine the ensemble of all possible source models which are consistent with the data and our a priori assumptions about the physics of the earthquake source. Until now, Bayesian techniques have been of limited utility because they are computationally intractable for problems with as many free parameters as kinematic finite fault models. We have developed a methodology called Cascading Adaptive Tempered Metropolis In Parallel (CATMIP) which allows us to sample very high-dimensional problems in a parallel computing framework. The CATMIP algorithm combines elements of simulated annealing and genetic algorithms with the Metropolis algorithm to dynamically optimize the algorithm's efficiency as it runs. We will present synthetic performance tests of finite fault models made with this methodology as well as a kinematic source model for the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake. This earthquake was well recorded by multiple ascending and descending interferograms and a network of high-rate GPS stations whose records can be used as near-field seismograms.

  6. A Bayesian Shrinkage Approach for AMMI Models.

    PubMed

    da Silva, Carlos Pereira; de Oliveira, Luciano Antonio; Nuvunga, Joel Jorge; Pamplona, Andrezza Kéllen Alves; Balestre, Marcio

    2015-01-01

    Linear-bilinear models, especially the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model, are widely applicable to genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) studies in plant breeding programs. These models allow a parsimonious modeling of GE interactions, retaining a small number of principal components in the analysis. However, one aspect of the AMMI model that is still debated is the selection criteria for determining the number of multiplicative terms required to describe the GE interaction pattern. Shrinkage estimators have been proposed as selection criteria for the GE interaction components. In this study, a Bayesian approach was combined with the AMMI model with shrinkage estimators for the principal components. A total of 55 maize genotypes were evaluated in nine different environments using a complete blocks design with three replicates. The results show that the traditional Bayesian AMMI model produces low shrinkage of singular values but avoids the usual pitfalls in determining the credible intervals in the biplot. On the other hand, Bayesian shrinkage AMMI models have difficulty with the credible interval for model parameters, but produce stronger shrinkage of the principal components, converging to GE matrices that have more shrinkage than those obtained using mixed models. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen, and resulted in models being selected that were similar to those obtained by the Cornelius F-test (α = 0.05) in traditional AMMI models and cross validation based on leave-one-out. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen and more GEI pattern retained on the first two components. The resulting model chosen by posterior distribution of singular value was also similar to those produced by the cross-validation approach in traditional AMMI models. Our method enables the estimation of credible interval for AMMI biplot plus the choice of AMMI model based on direct posterior

  7. A Bayesian Shrinkage Approach for AMMI Models

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira, Luciano Antonio; Nuvunga, Joel Jorge; Pamplona, Andrezza Kéllen Alves

    2015-01-01

    Linear-bilinear models, especially the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model, are widely applicable to genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) studies in plant breeding programs. These models allow a parsimonious modeling of GE interactions, retaining a small number of principal components in the analysis. However, one aspect of the AMMI model that is still debated is the selection criteria for determining the number of multiplicative terms required to describe the GE interaction pattern. Shrinkage estimators have been proposed as selection criteria for the GE interaction components. In this study, a Bayesian approach was combined with the AMMI model with shrinkage estimators for the principal components. A total of 55 maize genotypes were evaluated in nine different environments using a complete blocks design with three replicates. The results show that the traditional Bayesian AMMI model produces low shrinkage of singular values but avoids the usual pitfalls in determining the credible intervals in the biplot. On the other hand, Bayesian shrinkage AMMI models have difficulty with the credible interval for model parameters, but produce stronger shrinkage of the principal components, converging to GE matrices that have more shrinkage than those obtained using mixed models. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen, and resulted in models being selected that were similar to those obtained by the Cornelius F-test (α = 0.05) in traditional AMMI models and cross validation based on leave-one-out. This characteristic allowed more parsimonious models to be chosen and more GEI pattern retained on the first two components. The resulting model chosen by posterior distribution of singular value was also similar to those produced by the cross-validation approach in traditional AMMI models. Our method enables the estimation of credible interval for AMMI biplot plus the choice of AMMI model based on direct posterior

  8. Model Comparison of Bayesian Semiparametric and Parametric Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Xin-Yuan; Xia, Ye-Mao; Pan, Jun-Hao; Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models have wide applications. One of the most important issues in analyzing structural equation models is model comparison. This article proposes a Bayesian model comparison statistic, namely the "L[subscript nu]"-measure for both semiparametric and parametric structural equation models. For illustration purposes, we consider…

  9. A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Nested Clustering.

    PubMed

    Lee, Juhee; Müller, Peter; Zhu, Yitan; Ji, Yuan

    2016-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric Bayesian model for clustering where clusters of experimental units are determined by a shared pattern of clustering another set of experimental units. The proposed model is motivated by the analysis of protein activation data, where we cluster proteins such that all proteins in one cluster give rise to the same clustering of patients. That is, we define clusters of proteins by the way that patients group with respect to the corresponding protein activations. This is in contrast to (almost) all currently available models that use shared parameters in the sampling model to define clusters. This includes in particular model based clustering, Dirichlet process mixtures, product partition models, and more. We show results for two typical biostatistical inference problems that give rise to clustering. PMID:26519174

  10. Bayesian nonparametric models for ranked set sampling.

    PubMed

    Gemayel, Nader; Stasny, Elizabeth A; Wolfe, Douglas A

    2015-04-01

    Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a data collection technique that combines measurement with judgment ranking for statistical inference. This paper lays out a formal and natural Bayesian framework for RSS that is analogous to its frequentist justification, and that does not require the assumption of perfect ranking or use of any imperfect ranking models. Prior beliefs about the judgment order statistic distributions and their interdependence are embodied by a nonparametric prior distribution. Posterior inference is carried out by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, and yields estimators of the judgment order statistic distributions (and of functionals of those distributions). PMID:25326663

  11. Bayesian POT modeling for historical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parent, Eric; Bernier, Jacques

    2003-04-01

    When designing hydraulic structures, civil engineers have to evaluate design floods, i.e. events generally much rarer that the ones that have already been systematically recorded. To extrapolate towards extreme value events, taking advantage of further information such as historical data, has been an early concern among hydrologists. Most methods described in the hydrological literature are designed from a frequentist interpretation of probabilities, although such probabilities are commonly interpreted as subjective decisional bets by the end user. This paper adopts a Bayesian setting to deal with the classical Poisson-Pareto peak over treshold (POT) model when a sample of historical data is available. Direct probalistic statements can be made about the unknown parameters, thus improving communication with decision makers. On the Garonne case study, we point out that twelve historical events, however imprecise they might be, greatly reduce uncertainty. The 90% credible interval for the 1000 year flood becomes 40% smaller when taking into account historical data. Any kind of uncertainty (model uncertainty, imprecise range for historical events, missing data) can be incorporated into the decision analysis. Tractable and versatile data augmentation algorithms are implemented by Monte Carlo Markov Chain tools. Advantage is taken from a semi-conjugate prior, flexible enough to elicit expert knowledge about extreme behavior of the river flows. The data augmentation algorithm allows to deal with imprecise historical data in the POT model. A direct hydrological meaning is given to the latent variables, which are the Bayesian keytool to model unobserved past floods in the historical series.

  12. Model feedback in Bayesian propensity score estimation.

    PubMed

    Zigler, Corwin M; Watts, Krista; Yeh, Robert W; Wang, Yun; Coull, Brent A; Dominici, Francesca

    2013-03-01

    Methods based on the propensity score comprise one set of valuable tools for comparative effectiveness research and for estimating causal effects more generally. These methods typically consist of two distinct stages: (1) a propensity score stage where a model is fit to predict the propensity to receive treatment (the propensity score), and (2) an outcome stage where responses are compared in treated and untreated units having similar values of the estimated propensity score. Traditional techniques conduct estimation in these two stages separately; estimates from the first stage are treated as fixed and known for use in the second stage. Bayesian methods have natural appeal in these settings because separate likelihoods for the two stages can be combined into a single joint likelihood, with estimation of the two stages carried out simultaneously. One key feature of joint estimation in this context is "feedback" between the outcome stage and the propensity score stage, meaning that quantities in a model for the outcome contribute information to posterior distributions of quantities in the model for the propensity score. We provide a rigorous assessment of Bayesian propensity score estimation to show that model feedback can produce poor estimates of causal effects absent strategies that augment propensity score adjustment with adjustment for individual covariates. We illustrate this phenomenon with a simulation study and with a comparative effectiveness investigation of carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy among 123,286 Medicare beneficiaries hospitlized for stroke in 2006 and 2007. PMID:23379793

  13. Experience With Bayesian Image Based Surface Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stutz, John C.

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian surface modeling from images requires modeling both the surface and the image generation process, in order to optimize the models by comparing actual and generated images. Thus it differs greatly, both conceptually and in computational difficulty, from conventional stereo surface recovery techniques. But it offers the possibility of using any number of images, taken under quite different conditions, and by different instruments that provide independent and often complementary information, to generate a single surface model that fuses all available information. I describe an implemented system, with a brief introduction to the underlying mathematical models and the compromises made for computational efficiency. I describe successes and failures achieved on actual imagery, where we went wrong and what we did right, and how our approach could be improved. Lastly I discuss how the same approach can be extended to distinct types of instruments, to achieve true sensor fusion.

  14. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Crowd Emotions.

    PubMed

    Urizar, Oscar J; Baig, Mirza S; Barakova, Emilia I; Regazzoni, Carlo S; Marcenaro, Lucio; Rauterberg, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of emotions is an essential aspect in developing intelligent systems intended for crowded environments. However, emotion estimation in crowds remains a challenging problem due to the complexity in which human emotions are manifested and the capability of a system to perceive them in such conditions. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model to learn in unsupervised manner the behavior of individuals and of the crowd as a single entity, and explore the relation between behavior and emotions to infer emotional states. Information about the motion patterns of individuals are described using a self-organizing map, and a hierarchical Bayesian network builds probabilistic models to identify behaviors and infer the emotional state of individuals and the crowd. This model is trained and tested using data produced from simulated scenarios that resemble real-life environments. The conducted experiments tested the efficiency of our method to learn, detect and associate behaviors with emotional states yielding accuracy levels of 74% for individuals and 81% for the crowd, similar in performance with existing methods for pedestrian behavior detection but with novel concepts regarding the analysis of crowds. PMID:27458366

  15. A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Crowd Emotions

    PubMed Central

    Urizar, Oscar J.; Baig, Mirza S.; Barakova, Emilia I.; Regazzoni, Carlo S.; Marcenaro, Lucio; Rauterberg, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of emotions is an essential aspect in developing intelligent systems intended for crowded environments. However, emotion estimation in crowds remains a challenging problem due to the complexity in which human emotions are manifested and the capability of a system to perceive them in such conditions. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model to learn in unsupervised manner the behavior of individuals and of the crowd as a single entity, and explore the relation between behavior and emotions to infer emotional states. Information about the motion patterns of individuals are described using a self-organizing map, and a hierarchical Bayesian network builds probabilistic models to identify behaviors and infer the emotional state of individuals and the crowd. This model is trained and tested using data produced from simulated scenarios that resemble real-life environments. The conducted experiments tested the efficiency of our method to learn, detect and associate behaviors with emotional states yielding accuracy levels of 74% for individuals and 81% for the crowd, similar in performance with existing methods for pedestrian behavior detection but with novel concepts regarding the analysis of crowds. PMID:27458366

  16. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    PubMed

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  17. Spontaneous temporal changes and variability of peripheral nerve conduction analyzed using a random effects model.

    PubMed

    Krøigård, Thomas; Gaist, David; Otto, Marit; Højlund, Dorthe; Selmar, Peter E; Sindrup, Søren H

    2014-08-01

    The reproducibility of variables commonly included in studies of peripheral nerve conduction in healthy individuals has not previously been analyzed using a random effects regression model. We examined the temporal changes and variability of standard nerve conduction measures in the leg. Peroneal nerve distal motor latency, motor conduction velocity, and compound motor action potential amplitude; sural nerve sensory action potential amplitude and sensory conduction velocity; and tibial nerve minimal F-wave latency were examined in 51 healthy subjects, aged 40 to 67 years. They were reexamined after 2 and 26 weeks. There was no change in the variables except for a minor decrease in sural nerve sensory action potential amplitude and a minor increase in tibial nerve minimal F-wave latency. Reproducibility was best for peroneal nerve distal motor latency and motor conduction velocity, sural nerve sensory conduction velocity, and tibial nerve minimal F-wave latency. Between-subject variability was greater than within-subject variability. Sample sizes ranging from 21 to 128 would be required to show changes twice the magnitude of the spontaneous changes observed in this study. Nerve conduction studies have a high reproducibility, and variables are mainly unaltered during 6 months. This study provides a solid basis for the planning of future clinical trials assessing changes in nerve conduction. PMID:25083853

  18. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    PubMed

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology. PMID:23687472

  19. The Evaluation of Bias of the Weighted Random Effects Model Estimators. Research Report. ETS RR-11-13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs is considered. One way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection is to incorporate sampling weights. Many researchers have been proposed various weighting methods (Korn, & Graubard, 2003; Pfeffermann, Skinner, Holmes,…

  20. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  1. Bayesian Models of Graphs, Arrays and Other Exchangeable Random Structures.

    PubMed

    Orbanz, Peter; Roy, Daniel M

    2015-02-01

    The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays. PMID:26353253

  2. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    SciTech Connect

    Treml, C. A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  3. A Bayesian model for cluster detection.

    PubMed

    Wakefield, Jonathan; Kim, Albert

    2013-09-01

    The detection of areas in which the risk of a particular disease is significantly elevated, leading to an excess of cases, is an important enterprise in spatial epidemiology. Various frequentist approaches have been suggested for the detection of "clusters" within a hypothesis testing framework. Unfortunately, these suffer from a number of drawbacks including the difficulty in specifying a p-value threshold at which to call significance, the inherent multiplicity problem, and the possibility of multiple clusters. In this paper, we suggest a Bayesian approach to detecting "areas of clustering" in which the study region is partitioned into, possibly multiple, "zones" within which the risk is either at a null, or non-null, level. Computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo, tuned to the model that we develop. The method is applied to leukemia data in upstate New York. PMID:23476026

  4. Bayesian model selection for LISA pathfinder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnesis, Nikolaos; Nofrarias, Miquel; Sopuerta, Carlos F.; Gibert, Ferran; Armano, Michele; Audley, Heather; Congedo, Giuseppe; Diepholz, Ingo; Ferraioli, Luigi; Hewitson, Martin; Hueller, Mauro; Korsakova, Natalia; McNamara, Paul W.; Plagnol, Eric; Vitale, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The main goal of the LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission is to fully characterize the acceleration noise models and to test key technologies for future space-based gravitational-wave observatories similar to the eLISA concept. The data analysis team has developed complex three-dimensional models of the LISA Technology Package (LTP) experiment onboard the LPF. These models are used for simulations, but, more importantly, they will be used for parameter estimation purposes during flight operations. One of the tasks of the data analysis team is to identify the physical effects that contribute significantly to the properties of the instrument noise. A way of approaching this problem is to recover the essential parameters of a LTP model fitting the data. Thus, we want to define the simplest model that efficiently explains the observations. To do so, adopting a Bayesian framework, one has to estimate the so-called Bayes factor between two competing models. In our analysis, we use three main different methods to estimate it: the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the Schwarz criterion, and the Laplace approximation. They are applied to simulated LPF experiments in which the most probable LTP model that explains the observations is recovered. The same type of analysis presented in this paper is expected to be followed during flight operations. Moreover, the correlation of the output of the aforementioned methods with the design of the experiment is explored.

  5. Modeling residual hydrologic errors with Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Tyler; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish

    2015-09-01

    Hydrologic modelers are confronted with the challenge of producing estimates of the uncertainty associated with model predictions across an array of catchments and hydrologic flow regimes. Formal Bayesian approaches are commonly employed for parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis, but are often criticized for making strong assumptions about the nature of model residuals via the likelihood function that may not be well satisfied (or even checked). This technical note outlines a residual error model (likelihood function) specification framework that aims to provide guidance for the application of more appropriate residual error models through a nested approach that is both flexible and extendible. The framework synthesizes many previously employed residual error models and has been applied to four synthetic datasets (of differing error structure) and a real dataset from the Black River catchment in Queensland, Australia. Each residual error model was investigated and assessed under a top-down approach focused on its ability to properly characterize the errors. The results of these test applications indicate that a multifaceted assessment strategy is necessary to determine the adequacy of an individual likelihood function.

  6. A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Xu, Fei

    2011-01-01

    We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the "what", the "how", and the "why" of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for…

  7. Implementing Relevance Feedback in the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Campos, Luis M.; Fernandez-Luna, Juan M.; Huete, Juan F.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of relevance feedback in information retrieval focuses on a proposal for the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model. Bases the proposal on the propagation of partial evidences in the Bayesian network, representing new information obtained from the user's relevance judgments to compute the posterior relevance probabilities of the documents…

  8. Bayesian Student Modeling and the Problem of Parameter Specification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Agosta, John Mark; Perez de la Cruz, Jose Luis

    2001-01-01

    Discusses intelligent tutoring systems and the application of Bayesian networks to student modeling. Considers reasons for not using Bayesian networks, including the computational complexity of the algorithms and the difficulty of knowledge acquisition, and proposes an approach to simplify knowledge acquisition that applies causal independence to…

  9. A SEMIPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN MODEL FOR CIRCULAR-LINEAR REGRESSION

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is usefu...

  10. Bayesian analysis of the backreaction models

    SciTech Connect

    Kurek, Aleksandra; Bolejko, Krzysztof; Szydlowski, Marek

    2010-03-15

    We present a Bayesian analysis of four different types of backreaction models, which are based on the Buchert equations. In this approach, one considers a solution to the Einstein equations for a general matter distribution and then an average of various observable quantities is taken. Such an approach became of considerable interest when it was shown that it could lead to agreement with observations without resorting to dark energy. In this paper we compare the {Lambda}CDM model and the backreaction models with type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background data, and find that the former is favored. However, the tested models were based on some particular assumptions about the relation between the average spatial curvature and the backreaction, as well as the relation between the curvature and curvature index. In this paper we modified the latter assumption, leaving the former unchanged. We find that, by varying the relation between the curvature and curvature index, we can obtain a better fit. Therefore, some further work is still needed--in particular, the relation between the backreaction and the curvature should be revisited in order to fully determine the feasibility of the backreaction models to mimic dark energy.

  11. Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

    2003-11-01

    Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

  12. Stochastic model updating utilizing Bayesian approach and Gaussian process model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Hua-Ping; Ren, Wei-Xin

    2016-03-01

    Stochastic model updating (SMU) has been increasingly applied in quantifying structural parameter uncertainty from responses variability. SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification refers to the problem of inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ), which is a nontrivial task. Inverse problem solved with optimization usually brings about the issues of gradient computation, ill-conditionedness, and non-uniqueness. Moreover, the uncertainty present in response makes the inverse problem more complicated. In this study, Bayesian approach is adopted in SMU for parameter uncertainty quantification. The prominent strength of Bayesian approach for IUQ problem is that it solves IUQ problem in a straightforward manner, which enables it to avoid the previous issues. However, when applied to engineering structures that are modeled with a high-resolution finite element model (FEM), Bayesian approach is still computationally expensive since the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference requires a large number of model runs to guarantee the convergence. Herein we reduce computational cost in two aspects. On the one hand, the fast-running Gaussian process model (GPM) is utilized to approximate the time-consuming high-resolution FEM. On the other hand, the advanced MCMC method using delayed rejection adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm that incorporates local adaptive strategy with global adaptive strategy is employed for Bayesian inference. In addition, we propose the use of the powerful variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in parameter selection to exclude non-influential parameters from calibration parameters, which yields a reduced-order model and thus further alleviates the computational burden. A simulated aluminum plate and a real-world complex cable-stayed pedestrian bridge are presented to illustrate the proposed framework and verify its feasibility.

  13. Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.; White, Gary C.

    2004-01-01

    Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

  14. A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

    2015-01-01

    The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

  15. Bayesian Test of Significance for Conditional Independence: The Multinomial Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Morais Andrade, Pablo; Stern, Julio; de Bragança Pereira, Carlos

    2014-03-01

    Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Networks (BN) models--CI tests are especially important for the task of learning the PGM structure from data. In this paper, we propose the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. FBST is a powerful Bayesian test for precise hypothesis, as an alternative to frequentist's significance tests (characterized by the calculation of the \\emph{p-value}).

  16. Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Armero, C; Cabras, S; Castellanos, M E; Perra, S; Quirós, A; Oruezábal, M J; Sánchez-Rubio, J

    2016-02-01

    Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncologists and patients make efficient and effective decisions. PMID:22767866

  17. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  18. Entropic Priors and Bayesian Model Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, Brendon J.; Francis, Matthew J.

    2009-12-01

    We demonstrate that the principle of maximum relative entropy (ME), used judiciously, can ease the specification of priors in model selection problems. The resulting effect is that models that make sharp predictions are disfavoured, weakening the usual Bayesian ``Occam's Razor.'' This is illustrated with a simple example involving what Jaynes called a ``sure thing'' hypothesis. Jaynes' resolution of the situation involved introducing a large number of alternative ``sure thing'' hypotheses that were possible before we observed the data. However, in more complex situations, it may not be possible to explicitly enumerate large numbers of alternatives. The entropic priors formalism produces the desired result without modifying the hypothesis space or requiring explicit enumeration of alternatives; all that is required is a good model for the prior predictive distribution for the data. This idea is illustrated with a simple rigged-lottery example, and we outline how this idea may help to resolve a recent debate amongst cosmologists: is dark energy a cosmological constant, or has it evolved with time in some way? And how shall we decide, when the data are in?

  19. Integrative variable selection via Bayesian model uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Quintana, M A; Conti, D V

    2013-12-10

    We are interested in developing integrative approaches for variable selection problems that incorporate external knowledge on a set of predictors of interest. In particular, we have developed an integrative Bayesian model uncertainty (iBMU) method, which formally incorporates multiple sources of data via a second-stage probit model on the probability that any predictor is associated with the outcome of interest. Using simulations, we demonstrate that iBMU leads to an increase in power to detect true marginal associations over more commonly used variable selection techniques, such as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and elastic net. In addition, iBMU leads to a more efficient model search algorithm over the basic BMU method even when the predictor-level covariates are only modestly informative. The increase in power and efficiency of our method becomes more substantial as the predictor-level covariates become more informative. Finally, we demonstrate the power and flexibility of iBMU for integrating both gene structure and functional biomarker information into a candidate gene study investigating over 50 genes in the brain reward system and their role with smoking cessation from the Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction and Treatment Consortium. PMID:23824835

  20. Modeling Grade IV Gas Emboli using a Limited Failure Population Model with Random Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Laura A.; Conkin, Johnny; Chhikara, Raj S.; Powell, Michael R.

    2002-01-01

    Venous gas emboli (VGE) (gas bubbles in venous blood) are associated with an increased risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in hypobaric environments. A high grade of VGE can be a precursor to serious DCS. In this paper, we model time to Grade IV VGE considering a subset of individuals assumed to be immune from experiencing VGE. Our data contain monitoring test results from subjects undergoing up to 13 denitrogenation test procedures prior to exposure to a hypobaric environment. The onset time of Grade IV VGE is recorded as contained within certain time intervals. We fit a parametric (lognormal) mixture survival model to the interval-and right-censored data to account for the possibility of a subset of "cured" individuals who are immune to the event. Our model contains random subject effects to account for correlations between repeated measurements on a single individual. Model assessments and cross-validation indicate that this limited failure population mixture model is an improvement over a model that does not account for the potential of a fraction of cured individuals. We also evaluated some alternative mixture models. Predictions from the best fitted mixture model indicate that the actual process is reasonably approximated by a limited failure population model.

  1. Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models.

    PubMed

    Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S; Raftery, Adrian E

    2014-01-01

    Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed. PMID:24223471

  2. Calibrating Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Walsh, Stephen J.

    2010-04-08

    While human behavior has long been studied, recent and ongoing advances in computational modeling present opportunities for recasting research outcomes in human behavior. In this paper we describe how Bayesian networks can represent outcomes of human behavior research. We demonstrate a Bayesian network that represents political radicalization research – and show a corresponding visual representation of aspects of this research outcome. Since Bayesian networks can be quantitatively compared with external observations, the representation can also be used for empirical assessments of the research which the network summarizes. For a political radicalization model based on published research, we show this empirical comparison with data taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviors database.

  3. BAYESIAN METHODS FOR REGIONAL-SCALE EUTROPHICATION MODELS. (R830887)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We demonstrate a Bayesian classification and regression tree (CART) approach to link multiple environmental stressors to biological responses and quantify uncertainty in model predictions. Such an approach can: (1) report prediction uncertainty, (2) be consistent with the amou...

  4. Multivariate Bayesian Models of Extreme Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahill-Marier, B.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Farnham, D.

    2013-12-01

    Accounting for spatial heterogeneity in extreme rainfall has important ramifications in hydrological design and climate models alike. Traditional methods, including areal reduction factors and kriging, are sensitive to catchment shape assumptions and return periods, and do not explicitly model spatial dependence between between data points. More recent spatially dense rainfall simulators depend on newer data sources such as radar and may struggle to reproduce extremes because of physical assumptions in the model and short historical records. Rain gauges offer the longest historical record, key when considering rainfall extremes and changes over time, and particularly relevant in today's environment of designing for climate change. In this paper we propose a probabilistic approach of accounting for spatial dependence using the lengthy but spatially disparate hourly rainfall network in the greater New York City area. We build a hierarchical Bayesian model allowing extremes at one station to co-vary with concurrent rainfall fields occurring at other stations. Subsequently we pool across the extreme rainfall fields of all stations, and demonstrate that the expected catchment-wide events are significantly lower when considering spatial fields instead of maxima-only fields. We additionally demonstrate the importance of using concurrent spatial fields, rather than annual maxima, in producing covariance matrices that describe true storm dynamics. This approach is also unique in that it considers short duration storms - from one hour to twenty-four hours - rather than the daily values typically derived from rainfall gauges. The same methodology can be extended to include the radar fields available in the past decade. The hierarchical multilevel approach lends itself easily to integration of long-record parameters and short-record parameters at a station or regional level. In addition climate covariates can be introduced to support the relationship of spatial covariance with

  5. Iterative Usage of Fixed and Random Effect Models for Powerful and Efficient Genome-Wide Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiaolei; Huang, Meng; Fan, Bin; Buckler, Edward S.; Zhang, Zhiwu

    2016-01-01

    False positives in a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can be effectively controlled by a fixed effect and random effect Mixed Linear Model (MLM) that incorporates population structure and kinship among individuals to adjust association tests on markers; however, the adjustment also compromises true positives. The modified MLM method, Multiple Loci Linear Mixed Model (MLMM), incorporates multiple markers simultaneously as covariates in a stepwise MLM to partially remove the confounding between testing markers and kinship. To completely eliminate the confounding, we divided MLMM into two parts: Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and a Random Effect Model (REM) and use them iteratively. FEM contains testing markers, one at a time, and multiple associated markers as covariates to control false positives. To avoid model over-fitting problem in FEM, the associated markers are estimated in REM by using them to define kinship. The P values of testing markers and the associated markers are unified at each iteration. We named the new method as Fixed and random model Circulating Probability Unification (FarmCPU). Both real and simulated data analyses demonstrated that FarmCPU improves statistical power compared to current methods. Additional benefits include an efficient computing time that is linear to both number of individuals and number of markers. Now, a dataset with half million individuals and half million markers can be analyzed within three days. PMID:26828793

  6. A Bayesian observer model constrained by efficient coding can explain 'anti-Bayesian' percepts.

    PubMed

    Wei, Xue-Xin; Stocker, Alan A

    2015-10-01

    Bayesian observer models provide a principled account of the fact that our perception of the world rarely matches physical reality. The standard explanation is that our percepts are biased toward our prior beliefs. However, reported psychophysical data suggest that this view may be simplistic. We propose a new model formulation based on efficient coding that is fully specified for any given natural stimulus distribution. The model makes two new and seemingly anti-Bayesian predictions. First, it predicts that perception is often biased away from an observer's prior beliefs. Second, it predicts that stimulus uncertainty differentially affects perceptual bias depending on whether the uncertainty is induced by internal or external noise. We found that both model predictions match reported perceptual biases in perceived visual orientation and spatial frequency, and were able to explain data that have not been explained before. The model is general and should prove applicable to other perceptual variables and tasks. PMID:26343249

  7. Evaluating Individualized Reading Programs: A Bayesian Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maxwell, Martha

    Simple Bayesian approaches can be applied to answer specific questions in evaluating an individualized reading program. A small reading and study skills program located in the counseling center of a major research university collected and compiled data on student characteristics such as class, number of sessions attended, grade point average, and…

  8. Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

    PubMed

    Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

    2016-08-01

    Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. PMID:27179874

  9. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    PubMed

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway. PMID:23457624

  10. Social Science and the Bayesian Probability Explanation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jie; Zhao, Lei

    2014-03-01

    C. G. Hempel, one of the logical empiricists, who builds up his probability explanation model by using the empiricist view of probability, this model encountered many difficulties in the scientific explanation in which Hempel is difficult to make a reasonable defense. Based on the bayesian probability theory, the Bayesian probability model provides an approach of a subjective probability explanation based on the subjective probability, using the subjectivist view of probability. On the one hand, this probability model establishes the epistemological status of the subject in the social science; On the other hand, it provides a feasible explanation model for the social scientific explanation, which has important methodological significance.

  11. Bayesian calibration of a flood inundation model using spatial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Jim W.; Manning, Lucy J.; Hankin, Robin K. S.

    2011-05-01

    Bayesian theory of model calibration provides a coherent framework for distinguishing and encoding multiple sources of uncertainty in probabilistic predictions of flooding. This paper demonstrates the use of a Bayesian approach to computer model calibration, where the calibration data are in the form of spatial observations of flood extent. The Bayesian procedure involves generating posterior distributions of the flood model calibration parameters and observation error, as well as a Gaussian model inadequacy function, which represents the discrepancy between the best model predictions and reality. The approach is first illustrated with a simple didactic example and is then applied to a flood model of a reach of the river Thames in the UK. A predictive spatial distribution of flooding is generated for a flood of given severity.

  12. Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolfarine, Heleno; Bazan, Jorge Luis

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric…

  13. Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

    PubMed Central

    Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

    2014-01-01

    Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

  14. Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

    2014-01-01

    Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

  15. On the Adequacy of Bayesian Evaluations of Categorization Models: Reply to Vanpaemel and Lee (2012)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wills, Andy J.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.

    2012-01-01

    Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

  16. A Bayesian semiparametric model for bivariate sparse longitudinal data.

    PubMed

    Das, Kiranmoy; Li, Runze; Sengupta, Subhajit; Wu, Rongling

    2013-09-30

    Mixed-effects models have recently become popular for analyzing sparse longitudinal data that arise naturally in biological, agricultural and biomedical studies. Traditional approaches assume independent residuals over time and explain the longitudinal dependence by random effects. However, when bivariate or multivariate traits are measured longitudinally, this fundamental assumption is likely to be violated because of intertrait dependence over time. We provide a more general framework where the dependence of the observations from the same subject over time is not assumed to be explained completely by the random effects of the model. We propose a novel, mixed model-based approach and estimate the error-covariance structure nonparametrically under a generalized linear model framework. We use penalized splines to model the general effect of time, and we consider a Dirichlet process mixture of normal prior for the random-effects distribution. We analyze blood pressure data from the Framingham Heart Study where body mass index, gender and time are treated as covariates. We compare our method with traditional methods including parametric modeling of the random effects and independent residual errors over time. We conduct extensive simulation studies to investigate the practical usefulness of the proposed method. The current approach is very helpful in analyzing bivariate irregular longitudinal traits. PMID:23553747

  17. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task, which may be dependent. This article explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations: (a) no context--ignores dependence among observables; (b) compensatory context--introduces…

  18. On the Bayesian Nonparametric Generalization of IRT-Type Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    San Martin, Ernesto; Jara, Alejandro; Rolin, Jean-Marie; Mouchart, Michel

    2011-01-01

    We study the identification and consistency of Bayesian semiparametric IRT-type models, where the uncertainty on the abilities' distribution is modeled using a prior distribution on the space of probability measures. We show that for the semiparametric Rasch Poisson counts model, simple restrictions ensure the identification of a general…

  19. Bayesian non-parametrics and the probabilistic approach to modelling

    PubMed Central

    Ghahramani, Zoubin

    2013-01-01

    Modelling is fundamental to many fields of science and engineering. A model can be thought of as a representation of possible data one could predict from a system. The probabilistic approach to modelling uses probability theory to express all aspects of uncertainty in the model. The probabilistic approach is synonymous with Bayesian modelling, which simply uses the rules of probability theory in order to make predictions, compare alternative models, and learn model parameters and structure from data. This simple and elegant framework is most powerful when coupled with flexible probabilistic models. Flexibility is achieved through the use of Bayesian non-parametrics. This article provides an overview of probabilistic modelling and an accessible survey of some of the main tools in Bayesian non-parametrics. The survey covers the use of Bayesian non-parametrics for modelling unknown functions, density estimation, clustering, time-series modelling, and representing sparsity, hierarchies, and covariance structure. More specifically, it gives brief non-technical overviews of Gaussian processes, Dirichlet processes, infinite hidden Markov models, Indian buffet processes, Kingman’s coalescent, Dirichlet diffusion trees and Wishart processes. PMID:23277609

  20. Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

    2006-01-01

    We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

  1. A General Bayesian Model for Testlets: Theory and Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Xiaohui; Bradlow, Eric T.; Wainer, Howard

    2002-01-01

    Proposes a modified version of commonly employed item response models in a fully Bayesian framework and obtains inferences under the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Demonstrates use of the model in a series of simulations and with operational data from the North Carolina Test of Computer Skills and the Test of Spoken English…

  2. Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods.

    PubMed

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts. PMID:23604267

  3. Involving Stakeholders in Building Integrated Fisheries Models Using Bayesian Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.

  4. A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

  5. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  6. Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Model with Gibbs Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Culpepper, Steven Andrew

    2015-01-01

    A Bayesian model formulation of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model is presented. Gibbs sampling is employed to simulate from the joint posterior distribution of item guessing and slipping parameters, subject attribute parameters, and latent class probabilities. The procedure extends concepts in Béguin and Glas,…

  7. Bayesian Finite Mixtures for Nonlinear Modeling of Educational Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirri, Henry; And Others

    A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

  8. Bayesian Semiparametric Structural Equation Models with Latent Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Mingan; Dunson, David B.

    2010-01-01

    Structural equation models (SEMs) with latent variables are widely useful for sparse covariance structure modeling and for inferring relationships among latent variables. Bayesian SEMs are appealing in allowing for the incorporation of prior information and in providing exact posterior distributions of unknowns, including the latent variables. In…

  9. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-10-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student's t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble - the S&P 500 1987 crash - to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian models provide 95% credible intervals for the estimated crash time.

  10. Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

    2016-02-04

    A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

  11. Bayesian Joint Modelling for Object Localisation in Weakly Labelled Images.

    PubMed

    Shi, Zhiyuan; Hospedales, Timothy M; Xiang, Tao

    2015-10-01

    We address the problem of localisation of objects as bounding boxes in images and videos with weak labels. This weakly supervised object localisation problem has been tackled in the past using discriminative models where each object class is localised independently from other classes. In this paper, a novel framework based on Bayesian joint topic modelling is proposed, which differs significantly from the existing ones in that: (1) All foreground object classes are modelled jointly in a single generative model that encodes multiple object co-existence so that "explaining away" inference can resolve ambiguity and lead to better learning and localisation. (2) Image backgrounds are shared across classes to better learn varying surroundings and "push out" objects of interest. (3) Our model can be learned with a mixture of weakly labelled and unlabelled data, allowing the large volume of unlabelled images on the Internet to be exploited for learning. Moreover, the Bayesian formulation enables the exploitation of various types of prior knowledge to compensate for the limited supervision offered by weakly labelled data, as well as Bayesian domain adaptation for transfer learning. Extensive experiments on the PASCAL VOC, ImageNet and YouTube-Object videos datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian joint model for weakly supervised object localisation. PMID:26340253

  12. Examples of Mixed-Effects Modeling with Crossed Random Effects and with Binomial Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quene, Hugo; van den Bergh, Huub

    2008-01-01

    Psycholinguistic data are often analyzed with repeated-measures analyses of variance (ANOVA), but this paper argues that mixed-effects (multilevel) models provide a better alternative method. First, models are discussed in which the two random factors of participants and items are crossed, and not nested. Traditional ANOVAs are compared against…

  13. A mixture model with random-effects components for classifying sibling pairs.

    PubMed

    Martella, F; Vermunt, J K; Beekman, M; Westendorp, R G J; Slagboom, P E; Houwing-Duistermaat, J J

    2011-11-30

    In healthy aging research, typically multiple health outcomes are measured, representing health status. The aim of this paper was to develop a model-based clustering approach to identify homogeneous sibling pairs according to their health status. Model-based clustering approaches will be considered on the basis of linear mixed effect model for the mixture components. Class memberships of siblings within pairs are allowed to be correlated, and within a class the correlation between siblings is modeled using random sibling pair effects. We propose an expectation-maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation. Model performance is evaluated via simulations in terms of estimating the correct parameters, degree of agreement, and the ability to detect the correct number of clusters. The performance of our model is compared with the performance of standard model-based clustering approaches. The methods are used to classify sibling pairs from the Leiden Longevity Study according to their health status. Our results suggest that homogeneous healthy sibling pairs are associated with a longer life span. Software is available for fitting the new models. PMID:21905068

  14. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided. PMID:26019004

  15. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  16. Measuring Learning Progressions Using Bayesian Modeling in Complex Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutstein, Daisy Wise

    2012-01-01

    This research examines issues regarding model estimation and robustness in the use of Bayesian Inference Networks (BINs) for measuring Learning Progressions (LPs). It provides background information on LPs and how they might be used in practice. Two simulation studies are performed, along with real data examples. The first study examines the case…

  17. Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging.

    PubMed

    Min, Seung-Ki; Simonis, Daniel; Hense, Andreas

    2007-08-15

    This study explores the sensitivity of probabilistic predictions of the twenty-first century surface air temperature (SAT) changes to different multi-model averaging methods using available simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report. A way of observationally constrained prediction is provided by training multi-model simulations for the second half of the twentieth century with respect to long-term components. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) produces weighted probability density functions (PDFs) and we compare two methods of estimating weighting factors: Bayes factor and expectation-maximization algorithm. It is shown that Bayesian-weighted PDFs for the global mean SAT changes are characterized by multi-modal structures from the middle of the twenty-first century onward, which are not clearly seen in arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM). This occurs because BMA tends to select a few high-skilled models and down-weight the others. Additionally, Bayesian results exhibit larger means and broader PDFs in the global mean predictions than the unweighted AEM. Multi-modality is more pronounced in the continental analysis using 30-year mean (2070-2099) SATs while there is only a little effect of Bayesian weighting on the 5-95% range. These results indicate that this approach to observationally constrained probabilistic predictions can be highly sensitive to the method of training, particularly for the later half of the twenty-first century, and that a more comprehensive approach combining different regions and/or variables is required. PMID:17569647

  18. Shortlist B: A Bayesian Model of Continuous Speech Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norris, Dennis; McQueen, James M.

    2008-01-01

    A Bayesian model of continuous speech recognition is presented. It is based on Shortlist (D. Norris, 1994; D. Norris, J. M. McQueen, A. Cutler, & S. Butterfield, 1997) and shares many of its key assumptions: parallel competitive evaluation of multiple lexical hypotheses, phonologically abstract prelexical and lexical representations, a feedforward…

  19. Resolution-matrix-constrained model updates for bayesian seismic tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fontanini, Francesco; Bleibinhaus, Florian

    2015-04-01

    One of the most important issues of interpreting seismic tomography models is the need to provide a quantification of their uncertainty. Bayesian approach to inverse problems offers a rigorous way to quantitatively estimate this uncertainty at the price of an higher computation time. Optimizing bayesian algorithms is therefore a key problem. We are developing a multivariate model-updating scheme that makes use of the constraints provided by the Model Resolution Matrix , aiming to a more efficient sampling of the model space. The Resolution Matrix relates the true model to the estimate, its off-diagonal values provide a set of trade-off relations between model parameters used in our algorithm to obtain optimized model updates.

  20. Standardized Mean Differences in Two-Level Cross-Classified Random Effects Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lai, Mark H. C.; Kwok, Oi-Man

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel modeling techniques are becoming more popular in handling data with multilevel structure in educational and behavioral research. Recently, researchers have paid more attention to cross-classified data structure that naturally arises in educational settings. However, unlike traditional single-level research, methodological studies about…

  1. Deletion diagnostics for the generalised linear mixed model with independent random effects.

    PubMed

    Ganguli, B; Roy, S Sen; Naskar, M; Malloy, E J; Eisen, E A

    2016-04-30

    The Generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for modelling environmental data. However, such data are prone to influential observations, which can distort the estimated exposure-response curve particularly in regions of high exposure. Deletion diagnostics for iterative estimation schemes commonly derive the deleted estimates based on a single iteration of the full system holding certain pivotal quantities such as the information matrix to be constant. In this paper, we present an approximate formula for the deleted estimates and Cook's distance for the GLMM, which does not assume that the estimates of variance parameters are unaffected by deletion. The procedure allows the user to calculate standardised DFBETAs for mean as well as variance parameters. In certain cases such as when using the GLMM as a device for smoothing, such residuals for the variance parameters are interesting in their own right. In general, the procedure leads to deleted estimates of mean parameters, which are corrected for the effect of deletion on variance components as estimation of the two sets of parameters is interdependent. The probabilistic behaviour of these residuals is investigated and a simulation based procedure suggested for their standardisation. The method is used to identify influential individuals in an occupational cohort exposed to silica. The results show that failure to conduct post model fitting diagnostics for variance components can lead to erroneous conclusions about the fitted curve and unstable confidence intervals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26626135

  2. Efficient estimation and prediction for the Bayesian binary spatial model with flexible link functions.

    PubMed

    Roy, Vivekananda; Evangelou, Evangelos; Zhu, Zhengyuan

    2016-03-01

    Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular models for spatial data with a non-Gaussian response. Binomial SGLMMs with logit or probit link functions are often used to model spatially dependent binomial random variables. It is known that for independent binomial data, the robit regression model provides a more robust (against extreme observations) alternative to the more popular logistic and probit models. In this article, we introduce a Bayesian spatial robit model for spatially dependent binomial data. Since constructing a meaningful prior on the link function parameter as well as the spatial correlation parameters in SGLMMs is difficult, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach for the estimation of these parameters as well as for the prediction of the random effects. The EB methodology is implemented by efficient importance sampling methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our simulation study shows that the robit model is robust against model misspecification, and our EB method results in estimates with less bias than full Bayesian (FB) analysis. The methodology is applied to a Celastrus Orbiculatus data, and a Rhizoctonia root data. For the former, which is known to contain outlying observations, the robit model is shown to do better for predicting the spatial distribution of an invasive species. For the latter, our approach is doing as well as the classical models for predicting the disease severity for a root disease, as the probit link is shown to be appropriate. Though this article is written for Binomial SGLMMs for brevity, the EB methodology is more general and can be applied to other types of SGLMMs. In the accompanying R package geoBayes, implementations for other SGLMMs such as Poisson and Gamma SGLMMs are provided. PMID:26331903

  3. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

  4. Bayesian analysis of nonlinear mixed-effects mixture models for longitudinal data with heterogeneity and skewness.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiaosun; Huang, Yangxin

    2014-07-20

    It is a common practice to analyze complex longitudinal data using nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) models with normality assumption. The NLME models with normal distributions provide the most popular framework for modeling continuous longitudinal outcomes, assuming individuals are from a homogeneous population and relying on random-effects to accommodate inter-individual variation. However, the following two issues may standout: (i) normality assumption for model errors may cause lack of robustness and subsequently lead to invalid inference and unreasonable estimates, particularly, if the data exhibit skewness and (ii) a homogeneous population assumption may be unrealistically obscuring important features of between-subject and within-subject variations, which may result in unreliable modeling results. There has been relatively few studies concerning longitudinal data with both heterogeneity and skewness features. In the last two decades, the skew distributions have shown beneficial in dealing with asymmetric data in various applications. In this article, our objective is to address the simultaneous impact of both features arisen from longitudinal data by developing a flexible finite mixture of NLME models with skew distributions under Bayesian framework that allows estimates of both model parameters and class membership probabilities for longitudinal data. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed models and methods, and a real example from an AIDS clinical trial illustrates the methodology by modeling the viral dynamics to compare potential models with different distribution specifications; the analysis results are reported. PMID:24623529

  5. Bayesian inference in camera trapping studies for a class of spatial capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Karanth, K. Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, N. Samba

    2009-01-01

    We develop a class of models for inference about abundance or density using spatial capture-recapture data from studies based on camera trapping and related methods. The model is a hierarchical model composed of two components: a point process model describing the distribution of individuals in space (or their home range centers) and a model describing the observation of individuals in traps. We suppose that trap- and individual-specific capture probabilities are a function of distance between individual home range centers and trap locations. We show that the models can be regarded as generalized linear mixed models, where the individual home range centers are random effects. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under these models using a formulation based on data augmentation. We apply the models to camera trapping data on tigers from the Nagarahole Reserve, India, collected over 48 nights in 2006. For this study, 120 camera locations were used, but cameras were only operational at 30 locations during any given sample occasion. Movement of traps is common in many camera-trapping studies and represents an important feature of the observation model that we address explicitly in our application.

  6. Semiparametric Bayesian joint modeling of a binary and continuous outcome with applications in toxicological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Beom Seuk; Pennell, Michael L

    2014-03-30

    Many dose-response studies collect data on correlated outcomes. For example, in developmental toxicity studies, uterine weight and presence of malformed pups are measured on the same dam. Joint modeling can result in more efficient inferences than independent models for each outcome. Most methods for joint modeling assume standard parametric response distributions. However, in toxicity studies, it is possible that response distributions vary in location and shape with dose, which may not be easily captured by standard models. To address this issue, we propose a semiparametric Bayesian joint model for a binary and continuous response. In our model, a kernel stick-breaking process prior is assigned to the distribution of a random effect shared across outcomes, which allows flexible changes in distribution shape with dose shared across outcomes. The model also includes outcome-specific fixed effects to allow different location effects. In simulation studies, we found that the proposed model provides accurate estimates of toxicological risk when the data do not satisfy assumptions of standard parametric models. We apply our method to data from a developmental toxicity study of ethylene glycol diethyl ether. PMID:24123309

  7. A Bayesian population PBPK model for multiroute chloroform exposure

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yuching; Xu, Xu; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2011-01-01

    A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate the parameters in a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for chloroform using prior information and biomarker data from different exposure pathways. In particular, the model provides a quantitative description of the changes in physiological parameters associated with hot-water bath and showering scenarios. Through Bayesian inference, uncertainties in the PBPK parameters were reduced from the prior distributions. Prediction of biomarker data with the calibrated PBPK model was improved by the calibration. The posterior results indicate that blood flow rates varied under two different exposure scenarios, with a two-fold increase of the skin's blood flow rate predicted in the hot-bath scenario. This result highlights the importance of considering scenario-specific parameters in PBPK modeling. To demonstrate the application of a probability approach in toxicological assessment, results from the posterior distributions from this calibrated model were used to predict target tissue dose based on the rate of chloroform metabolized in liver. This study demonstrates the use of the Bayesian approach to optimize PBPK model parameters for typical household exposure scenarios. PMID:19471319

  8. Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

    2016-04-01

    Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling

  9. HIBAYES: Global 21-cm Bayesian Monte-Carlo Model Fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zwart, Jonathan T. L.; Price, Daniel; Bernardi, Gianni

    2016-06-01

    HIBAYES implements fully-Bayesian extraction of the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization in the presence of foreground emission. User-defined likelihood and prior functions are called by the sampler PyMultiNest (ascl:1606.005) in order to jointly explore the full (signal plus foreground) posterior probability distribution and evaluate the Bayesian evidence for a given model. Implemented models, for simulation and fitting, include gaussians (HI signal) and polynomials (foregrounds). Some simple plotting and analysis tools are supplied. The code can be extended to other models (physical or empirical), to incorporate data from other experiments, or to use alternative Monte-Carlo sampling engines as required.

  10. Bayesian point event modeling in spatial and environmental epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Andrew B

    2012-10-01

    This paper reviews the current state of point event modeling in spatial epidemiology from a Bayesian perspective. Point event (or case event) data arise when geo-coded addresses of disease events are available. Often, this level of spatial resolution would not be accessible due to medical confidentiality constraints. However, for the examination of small spatial scales, it is important to be capable of examining point process data directly. Models for such data are usually formulated based on point process theory. In addition, special conditioning arguments can lead to simpler Bernoulli likelihoods and logistic spatial models. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics and Bayesian residuals are also considered. Applications within putative health hazard risk assessment, cluster detection, and linkage to environmental risk fields (misalignment) are considered. PMID:23035034

  11. Application of the Bayesian dynamic survival model in medicine.

    PubMed

    He, Jianghua; McGee, Daniel L; Niu, Xufeng

    2010-02-10

    The Bayesian dynamic survival model (BDSM), a time-varying coefficient survival model from the Bayesian prospective, was proposed in early 1990s but has not been widely used or discussed. In this paper, we describe the model structure of the BDSM and introduce two estimation approaches for BDSMs: the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and the linear Bayesian (LB) method. The MCMC approach estimates model parameters through sampling and is computationally intensive. With the newly developed geoadditive survival models and software BayesX, the BDSM is available for general applications. The LB approach is easier in terms of computations but it requires the prespecification of some unknown smoothing parameters. In a simulation study, we use the LB approach to show the effects of smoothing parameters on the performance of the BDSM and propose an ad hoc method for identifying appropriate values for those parameters. We also demonstrate the performance of the MCMC approach compared with the LB approach and a penalized partial likelihood method available in software R packages. A gastric cancer trial is utilized to illustrate the application of the BDSM. PMID:20014356

  12. The impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcome of bayesian spatial model.

    PubMed

    Kang, Su Yun; McGree, James; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2013-01-01

    Discretization of a geographical region is quite common in spatial analysis. There have been few studies into the impact of different geographical scales on the outcome of spatial models for different spatial patterns. This study aims to investigate the impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcomes of modelling spatial point-based data. Given a spatial point-based dataset (such as occurrence of a disease), we study the geographical variation of residual disease risk using regular grid cells. The individual disease risk is modelled using a logistic model with the inclusion of spatially unstructured and/or spatially structured random effects. Three spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modelling, namely an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, a second-order random walk on a lattice, and a Gaussian field with Matérn correlation function. We investigate how changes in grid cell size affect model outcomes under different spatial structures and different smoothness priors for the spatial component. A realistic example (the Humberside data) is analyzed and a simulation study is described. Bayesian computation is carried out using an integrated nested Laplace approximation. The results suggest that the performance and predictive capacity of the spatial models improve as the grid cell size decreases for certain spatial structures. It also appears that different spatial smoothness priors should be applied for different patterns of point data. PMID:24146799

  13. A Bayesian growth mixture model to examine maternal hypertension and birth outcomes.

    PubMed

    Neelon, Brian; Swamy, Geeta K; Burgette, Lane F; Miranda, Marie Lynn

    2011-09-30

    Maternal hypertension is a major contributor to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW). Although several studies have explored the relationship between maternal hypertension and fetal health, few have examined how the longitudinal trajectory of blood pressure, considered over the course of pregnancy, affects birth outcomes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian growth mixture model to jointly examine the associations between longitudinal blood pressure measurements, PTB, and LBW. The model partitions women into distinct classes characterized by a mean arterial pressure (MAP) curve and joint probabilities of PTB and LBW. Each class contains a unique mixed effects model for MAP with class-specific regression coefficients and random effect covariances. To account for the strong correlation between PTB and LBW, we introduce a bivariate probit model within each class to capture residual within-class dependence between PTB and LBW. The model permits the association between PTB and LBW to vary by class, so that for some classes, PTB and LBW may be positively correlated, whereas for others, they may be uncorrelated or negatively correlated. We also allow maternal covariates to influence the class probabilities via a multinomial logit model. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient MCMC algorithm that combines full-conditional Gibbs and Metropolis steps. We apply our model to a sample of 1027 women enrolled in the Healthy Pregnancy, Healthy Baby Study, a prospective cohort study of host, social, and environmental contributors to disparities in pregnancy outcomes. PMID:21751226

  14. Bayesian approach for network modeling of brain structural features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Anand A.; Joshi, Shantanu H.; Leahy, Richard M.; Shattuck, David W.; Dinov, Ivo; Toga, Arthur W.

    2010-03-01

    Brain connectivity patterns are useful in understanding brain function and organization. Anatomical brain connectivity is largely determined using the physical synaptic connections between neurons. In contrast statistical brain connectivity in a given brain population refers to the interaction and interdependencies of statistics of multitudes of brain features including cortical area, volume, thickness etc. Traditionally, this dependence has been studied by statistical correlations of cortical features. In this paper, we propose the use of Bayesian network modeling for inferring statistical brain connectivity patterns that relate to causal (directed) as well as non-causal (undirected) relationships between cortical surface areas. We argue that for multivariate cortical data, the Bayesian model provides for a more accurate representation by removing the effect of confounding correlations that get introduced due to canonical dependence between the data. Results are presented for a population of 466 brains, where a SEM (structural equation modeling) approach is used to generate a Bayesian network model, as well as a dependency graph for the joint distribution of cortical areas.

  15. Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

  16. Assessing the consistency of the treatment effect under the discrete random effects model in multiregional clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jung-Tzu; Tsou, Hsiao-Hui; Gordon Lan, K K; Chen, Chi-Tian; Lai, Yi-Hsuan; Chang, Wan-Jung; Tzeng, Chyng-Shyan; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

    2016-06-30

    In recent years, developing pharmaceutical products via multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs) has become standard. Traditionally, an MRCT would assume that a treatment effect is uniform across regions. However, heterogeneity among regions may have impact upon the evaluation of a medicine's effect. In this study, we consider a random effects model using discrete distribution (DREM) to account for heterogeneous treatment effects across regions for the design and evaluation of MRCTs. We derive an power function for a treatment that is beneficial under DREM and illustrate determination of the overall sample size in an MRCT. We use the concept of consistency based on Method 2 of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare's guidance to evaluate the probability for treatment benefit and consistency under DREM. We further derive an optimal sample size allocation over regions to maximize the power for consistency. Moreover, we provide three algorithms for deriving sample size at the desired level of power for benefit and consistency. In practice, regional treatment effects are unknown. Thus, we provide some guidelines on the design of MRCTs with consistency when the regional treatment effect are assumed to fall into a specified interval. Numerical examples are given to illustrate applications of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26833851

  17. A localization model to localize multiple sources using Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunham, Joshua Rolv

    Accurate localization of a sound source in a room setting is important in both psychoacoustics and architectural acoustics. Binaural models have been proposed to explain how the brain processes and utilizes the interaural time differences (ITDs) and interaural level differences (ILDs) of sound waves arriving at the ears of a listener in determining source location. Recent work shows that applying Bayesian methods to this problem is proving fruitful. In this thesis, pink noise samples are convolved with head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) and compared to combinations of one and two anechoic speech signals convolved with different HRTFs or binaural room impulse responses (BRIRs) to simulate room positions. Through exhaustive calculation of Bayesian posterior probabilities and using a maximal likelihood approach, model selection will determine the number of sources present, and parameter estimation will result in azimuthal direction of the source(s).

  18. Slice sampling technique in Bayesian extreme of gold price modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rostami, Mohammad; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Yahya, Mohamed Hisham

    2013-09-01

    In this paper, a simulation study of Bayesian extreme values by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo via slice sampling algorithm is implemented. We compared the accuracy of slice sampling with other methods for a Gumbel model. This study revealed that slice sampling algorithm offers more accurate and closer estimates with less RMSE than other methods . Finally we successfully employed this procedure to estimate the parameters of Malaysia extreme gold price from 2000 to 2011.

  19. How to Address Measurement Noise in Bayesian Model Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöniger, A.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    When confronted with the challenge of selecting one out of several competing conceptual models for a specific modeling task, Bayesian model averaging is a rigorous choice. It ranks the plausibility of models based on Bayes' theorem, which yields an optimal trade-off between performance and complexity. With the resulting posterior model probabilities, their individual predictions are combined into a robust weighted average and the overall predictive uncertainty (including conceptual uncertainty) can be quantified. This rigorous framework does, however, not yet explicitly consider statistical significance of measurement noise in the calibration data set. This is a major drawback, because model weights might be instable due to the uncertainty in noisy data, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. We present a new extension to the Bayesian model averaging framework that explicitly accounts for measurement noise as a source of uncertainty for the weights. This enables modelers to assess the reliability of model ranking for a specific application and a given calibration data set. Also, the impact of measurement noise on the overall prediction uncertainty can be determined. Technically, our extension is built within a Monte Carlo framework. We repeatedly perturb the observed data with random realizations of measurement error. Then, we determine the robustness of the resulting model weights against measurement noise. We quantify the variability of posterior model weights as weighting variance. We add this new variance term to the overall prediction uncertainty analysis within the Bayesian model averaging framework to make uncertainty quantification more realistic and "complete". We illustrate the importance of our suggested extension with an application to soil-plant model selection, based on studies by Wöhling et al. (2013, 2014). Results confirm that noise in leaf area index or evaporation rate observations produces a significant amount of weighting

  20. Bayesian regression model for seasonal forecast of precipitation over Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jo, Seongil; Lim, Yaeji; Lee, Jaeyong; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Oh, Hee-Seok

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we apply three different Bayesian methods to the seasonal forecasting of the precipitation in a region around Korea (32.5°N-42.5°N, 122.5°E-132.5°E). We focus on the precipitation of summer season (June-July-August; JJA) for the period of 1979-2007 using the precipitation produced by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) as predictors. Through cross-validation, we demonstrate improvement for seasonal forecast of precipitation in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and linear error in probability space score (LEPS). The proposed methods yield RMSE of 1.09 and LEPS of 0.31 between the predicted and observed precipitations, while the prediction using GDAPS output only produces RMSE of 1.20 and LEPS of 0.33 for CPC Merged Analyzed Precipitation (CMAP) data. For station-measured precipitation data, the RMSE and LEPS of the proposed Bayesian methods are 0.53 and 0.29, while GDAPS output is 0.66 and 0.33, respectively. The methods seem to capture the spatial pattern of the observed precipitation. The Bayesian paradigm incorporates the model uncertainty as an integral part of modeling in a natural way. We provide a probabilistic forecast integrating model uncertainty.

  1. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szydłowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam; Kurek, Aleksandra; Kamionka, Michał

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting CDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative—the CDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), , baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock-Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting CDM model when compared to the CDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the CDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting CDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model.

  2. Dissecting Magnetar Variability with Bayesian Hierarchical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huppenkothen, Daniela; Brewer, Brendon J.; Hogg, David W.; Murray, Iain; Frean, Marcus; Elenbaas, Chris; Watts, Anna L.; Levin, Yuri; van der Horst, Alexander J.; Kouveliotou, Chryssa

    2015-09-01

    Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behavior, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favored models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterize the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organized criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.

  3. Bayesian Transformation Models for Multivariate Survival Data

    PubMed Central

    DE CASTRO, MÁRIO; CHEN, MING-HUI; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; KLEIN, JOHN P.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we propose a general class of gamma frailty transformation models for multivariate survival data. The transformation class includes the commonly used proportional hazards and proportional odds models. The proposed class also includes a family of cure rate models. Under an improper prior for the parameters, we establish propriety of the posterior distribution. A novel Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for sampling from the observed data posterior distribution. A simulation study is conducted to examine the properties of the proposed methodology. An application to a data set from a cord blood transplantation study is also reported. PMID:24904194

  4. Bayesian inference and model comparison for metallic fatigue data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babuška, Ivo; Sawlan, Zaid; Scavino, Marco; Szabó, Barna; Tempone, Raúl

    2016-06-01

    In this work, we present a statistical treatment of stress-life (S-N) data drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments that were performed on 75S-T6 aluminum alloys. Our main objective is to predict the fatigue life of materials by providing a systematic approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking with reference to S-N data. To this purpose, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models that are specially designed to allow the treatment of the run-outs (right-censored data). We first fit the models to the data by maximum likelihood methods and estimate the quantiles of the life distribution of the alloy specimen. To assess the robustness of the estimation of the quantile functions, we obtain bootstrap confidence bands by stratified resampling with respect to the cycle ratio. We then compare and rank the models by classical measures of fit based on information criteria. We also consider a Bayesian approach that provides, under the prior distribution of the model parameters selected by the user, their simulation-based posterior distributions. We implement and apply Bayesian model comparison methods, such as Bayes factor ranking and predictive information criteria based on cross-validation techniques under various a priori scenarios.

  5. 3-D model-based Bayesian classification

    SciTech Connect

    Soenneland, L.; Tenneboe, P.; Gehrmann, T.; Yrke, O.

    1994-12-31

    The challenging task of the interpreter is to integrate different pieces of information and combine them into an earth model. The sophistication level of this earth model might vary from the simplest geometrical description to the most complex set of reservoir parameters related to the geometrical description. Obviously the sophistication level also depend on the completeness of the available information. The authors describe the interpreter`s task as a mapping between the observation space and the model space. The information available to the interpreter exists in observation space and the task is to infer a model in model-space. It is well-known that this inversion problem is non-unique. Therefore any attempt to find a solution depend son constraints being added in some manner. The solution will obviously depend on which constraints are introduced and it would be desirable to allow the interpreter to modify the constraints in a problem-dependent manner. They will present a probabilistic framework that gives the interpreter the tools to integrate the different types of information and produce constrained solutions. The constraints can be adapted to the problem at hand.

  6. Bayesian Local Contamination Models for Multivariate Outliers

    PubMed Central

    Page, Garritt L.; Dunson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    In studies where data are generated from multiple locations or sources it is common for there to exist observations that are quite unlike the majority. Motivated by the application of establishing a reference value in an inter-laboratory setting when outlying labs are present, we propose a local contamination model that is able to accommodate unusual multivariate realizations in a flexible way. The proposed method models the process level of a hierarchical model using a mixture with a parametric component and a possibly nonparametric contamination. Much of the flexibility in the methodology is achieved by allowing varying random subsets of the elements in the lab-specific mean vectors to be allocated to the contamination component. Computational methods are developed and the methodology is compared to three other possible approaches using a simulation study. We apply the proposed method to a NIST/NOAA sponsored inter-laboratory study which motivated the methodological development. PMID:24363465

  7. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, C.; Plant, N.

    2010-01-01

    Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70-90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale. ?? 2010.

  8. Bayesian sensitivity analysis of bifurcating nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, W.; Worden, K.; Rowson, J.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis allows one to investigate how changes in input parameters to a system affect the output. When computational expense is a concern, metamodels such as Gaussian processes can offer considerable computational savings over Monte Carlo methods, albeit at the expense of introducing a data modelling problem. In particular, Gaussian processes assume a smooth, non-bifurcating response surface. This work highlights a recent extension to Gaussian processes which uses a decision tree to partition the input space into homogeneous regions, and then fits separate Gaussian processes to each region. In this way, bifurcations can be modelled at region boundaries and different regions can have different covariance properties. To test this method, both the treed and standard methods were applied to the bifurcating response of a Duffing oscillator and a bifurcating FE model of a heart valve. It was found that the treed Gaussian process provides a practical way of performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on large, potentially-bifurcating models, which cannot be dealt with by using a single GP, although an open problem remains how to manage bifurcation boundaries that are not parallel to coordinate axes.

  9. Bayesian calibration of hyperelastic constitutive models of soft tissue.

    PubMed

    Madireddy, Sandeep; Sista, Bhargava; Vemaganti, Kumar

    2016-06-01

    There is inherent variability in the experimental response used to characterize the hyperelastic mechanical response of soft tissues. This has to be accounted for while estimating the parameters in the constitutive models to obtain reliable estimates of the quantities of interest. The traditional least squares method of parameter estimation does not give due importance to this variability. We use a Bayesian calibration framework based on nested Monte Carlo sampling to account for the variability in the experimental data and its effect on the estimated parameters through a systematic probability-based treatment. We consider three different constitutive models to represent the hyperelastic nature of soft tissue: Mooney-Rivlin model, exponential model, and Ogden model. Three stress-strain data sets corresponding to the deformation of agarose gel, bovine liver tissue, and porcine brain tissue are considered. Bayesian fits and parameter estimates are compared with the corresponding least squares values. Finally, we propagate the uncertainty in the parameters to a quantity of interest (QoI), namely the force-indentation response, to study the effect of model form on the values of the QoI. Our results show that the quality of the fit alone is insufficient to determine the adequacy of the model, and due importance has to be given to the maximum likelihood value, the landscape of the likelihood distribution, and model complexity. PMID:26751706

  10. DPpackage: Bayesian Non- and Semi-parametric Modelling in R.

    PubMed

    Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Timothy E; Quintana, Fernando A; Müller, Peter; Rosner, Gary L

    2011-04-01

    Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space of all probability distributions or the space of all regression functions. Unfortunately, posterior distributions ranging over function spaces are highly complex and hence sampling methods play a key role. This paper provides an introduction to a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of some Bayesian non- and semi-parametric models in R, DPpackage. Currently DPpackage includes models for marginal and conditional density estimation, ROC curve analysis, interval-censored data, binary regression data, item response data, longitudinal and clustered data using generalized linear mixed models, and regression data using generalized additive models. The package also contains functions to compute pseudo-Bayes factors for model comparison, and for eliciting the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process prior. To maximize computational efficiency, the actual sampling for each model is carried out using compiled FORTRAN. PMID:21796263

  11. Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

    PubMed

    Hack, C Eric

    2006-04-17

    Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach. PMID:16466842

  12. Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

    PubMed

    Robert, Christian P; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S

    2011-09-13

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice. PMID:21876135

  13. Bayesian partial linear model for skewed longitudinal data.

    PubMed

    Tang, Yuanyuan; Sinha, Debajyoti; Pati, Debdeep; Lipsitz, Stuart; Lipshultz, Steven

    2015-07-01

    Unlike majority of current statistical models and methods focusing on mean response for highly skewed longitudinal data, we present a novel model for such data accommodating a partially linear median regression function, a skewed error distribution and within subject association structures. We provide theoretical justifications for our methods including asymptotic properties of the posterior and associated semiparametric Bayesian estimators. We also provide simulation studies to investigate the finite sample properties of our methods. Several advantages of our method compared with existing methods are demonstrated via analysis of a cardiotoxicity study of children of HIV-infected mothers. PMID:25792623

  14. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics for Bayesian hierarchical models.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

    2012-03-01

    This article proposes methodology for assessing goodness of fit in Bayesian hierarchical models. The methodology is based on comparing values of pivotal discrepancy measures (PDMs), computed using parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution, to known reference distributions. Because the resulting diagnostics can be calculated from standard output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, their computational costs are minimal. Several simulation studies are provided, each of which suggests that diagnostics based on PDMs have higher statistical power than comparable posterior-predictive diagnostic checks in detecting model departures. The proposed methodology is illustrated in a clinical application; an application to discrete data is described in supplementary material. PMID:22050079

  15. A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

  16. Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2016-03-01

    Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of "working distributions" to facilitate--or shorten--the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a "working" distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different "working" distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

  17. Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and spatial survival AIDS data.

    PubMed

    Martins, Rui; Silva, Giovani L; Andreozzi, Valeska

    2016-08-30

    Joint analysis of longitudinal and survival data has received increasing attention in the recent years, especially for analyzing cancer and AIDS data. As both repeated measurements (longitudinal) and time-to-event (survival) outcomes are observed in an individual, a joint modeling is more appropriate because it takes into account the dependence between the two types of responses, which are often analyzed separately. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for jointly modeling longitudinal and survival data considering functional time and spatial frailty effects, respectively. That is, the proposed model deals with non-linear longitudinal effects and spatial survival effects accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity among individuals living in the same region. This joint approach is applied to a cohort study of patients with HIV/AIDS in Brazil during the years 2002-2006. Our Bayesian joint model presents considerable improvements in the estimation of survival times of the Brazilian HIV/AIDS patients when compared with those obtained through a separate survival model and shows that the spatial risk of death is the same across the different Brazilian states. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26990773

  18. An intuitive Bayesian spatial model for disease mapping that accounts for scaling.

    PubMed

    Riebler, Andrea; Sørbye, Sigrunn H; Simpson, Daniel; Rue, Håvard

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, disease mapping studies have become a routine application within geographical epidemiology and are typically analysed within a Bayesian hierarchical model formulation. A variety of model formulations for the latent level have been proposed but all come with inherent issues. In the classical BYM (Besag, York and Mollié) model, the spatially structured component cannot be seen independently from the unstructured component. This makes prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects challenging. There are alternative model formulations that address this confounding; however, the issue on how to choose interpretable hyperpriors is still unsolved. Here, we discuss a recently proposed parameterisation of the BYM model that leads to improved parameter control as the hyperparameters can be seen independently from each other. Furthermore, the need for a scaled spatial component is addressed, which facilitates assignment of interpretable hyperpriors and make these transferable between spatial applications with different graph structures. The hyperparameters themselves are used to define flexible extensions of simple base models. Consequently, penalised complexity priors for these parameters can be derived based on the information-theoretic distance from the flexible model to the base model, giving priors with clear interpretation. We provide implementation details for the new model formulation which preserve sparsity properties, and we investigate systematically the model performance and compare it to existing parameterisations. Through a simulation study, we show that the new model performs well, both showing good learning abilities and good shrinkage behaviour. In terms of model choice criteria, the proposed model performs at least equally well as existing parameterisations, but only the new formulation offers parameters that are interpretable and hyperpriors that have a clear meaning. PMID:27566770

  19. Structural and parameter uncertainty in Bayesian cost-effectiveness models

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Christopher H; Sharples, Linda D; Thompson, Simon G

    2010-01-01

    Health economic decision models are subject to various forms of uncertainty, including uncertainty about the parameters of the model and about the model structure. These uncertainties can be handled within a Bayesian framework, which also allows evidence from previous studies to be combined with the data. As an example, we consider a Markov model for assessing the cost-effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior simulation, uncertainty about the parameters of the model is formally incorporated in the estimates of expected cost and effectiveness. We extend these methods to include uncertainty about the choice between plausible model structures. This is accounted for by averaging the posterior distributions from the competing models using weights that are derived from the pseudo-marginal-likelihood and the deviance information criterion, which are measures of expected predictive utility. We also show how these cost-effectiveness calculations can be performed efficiently in the widely used software WinBUGS. PMID:20383261

  20. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios. PMID:26858669

  1. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  2. Assessing uncertainty in a stand growth model by Bayesian synthesis

    SciTech Connect

    Green, E.J.; MacFarlane, D.W.; Valentine, H.T.; Strawderman, W.E.

    1999-11-01

    The Bayesian synthesis method (BSYN) was used to bound the uncertainty in projections calculated with PIPESTEM, a mechanistic model of forest growth. The application furnished posterior distributions of (a) the values of the model's parameters, and (b) the values of three of the model's output variables--basal area per unit land area, average tree height, and tree density--at different points in time. Confidence or credible intervals for the output variables were obtained directly from the posterior distributions. The application also provides estimates of correlation among the parameters and output variables. BSYN, which originally was applied to a population dynamics model for bowhead whales, is generally applicable to deterministic models. Extension to two or more linked models is discussed. A simple worked example is included in an appendix.

  3. A Bayesian approach to biokinetic models of internally- deposited radionuclides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amer, Mamun F.

    Bayesian methods were developed and applied to estimate parameters of biokinetic models of internally deposited radionuclides for the first time. Marginal posterior densities for the parameters, given the available data, were obtained and graphed. These densities contain all the information available about the parameters and fully describe their uncertainties. Two different numerical integration methods were employed to approximate the multi-dimensional integrals needed to obtain these densities and to verify our results. One numerical method was based on Gaussian quadrature. The other method was a lattice rule that was developed by Conroy. The lattice rule method is applied here for the first time in conjunction with Bayesian analysis. Computer codes were developed in Mathematica's own programming language to perform the integrals. Several biokinetic models were studied. The first model was a single power function, a/ t-b that was used to describe 226Ra whole body retention data for long periods of time in many patients. The posterior odds criterion for model identification was applied to select, from among some competing models, the best model to represent 226Ra retention in man. The highest model posterior was attained by the single power function. Posterior densities for the model parameters were obtained for each patient. Also, predictive densities for retention, given the available retention values and some selected times, were obtained. These predictive densities characterize the uncertainties in the unobservable retention values taking into consideration the uncertainties of other parameters in the model. The second model was a single exponential function, α e-/beta t, that was used to represent one patient's whole body retention as well as total excretion of 137Cs. Missing observations (censored data) in the two responses were replaced by unknown parameters and were handled in the same way other model parameters are treated. By applying the Bayesian

  4. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  5. Bayesian Gaussian Copula Factor Models for Mixed Data

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Jared S.; Dunson, David B.; Carin, Lawrence; Lucas, Joseph E.

    2013-01-01

    Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables or through generalized latent trait models acommodating measurements in the exponential family. However, when generalizing to non-Gaussian measured variables the latent variables typically influence both the dependence structure and the form of the marginal distributions, complicating interpretation and introducing artifacts. To address this problem we propose a novel class of Bayesian Gaussian copula factor models which decouple the latent factors from the marginal distributions. A semiparametric specification for the marginals based on the extended rank likelihood yields straightforward implementation and substantial computational gains. We provide new theoretical and empirical justifications for using this likelihood in Bayesian inference. We propose new default priors for the factor loadings and develop efficient parameter-expanded Gibbs sampling for posterior computation. The methods are evaluated through simulations and applied to a dataset in political science. The models in this paper are implemented in the R package bfa.1 PMID:23990691

  6. Bayesian Models for fMRI Data Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Vannucci, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), a noninvasive neuroimaging method that provides an indirect measure of neuronal activity by detecting blood flow changes, has experienced an explosive growth in the past years. Statistical methods play a crucial role in understanding and analyzing fMRI data. Bayesian approaches, in particular, have shown great promise in applications. A remarkable feature of fully Bayesian approaches is that they allow a flexible modeling of spatial and temporal correlations in the data. This paper provides a review of the most relevant models developed in recent years. We divide methods according to the objective of the analysis. We start from spatio-temporal models for fMRI data that detect task-related activation patterns. We then address the very important problem of estimating brain connectivity. We also touch upon methods that focus on making predictions of an individual's brain activity or a clinical or behavioral response. We conclude with a discussion of recent integrative models that aim at combining fMRI data with other imaging modalities, such as EEG/MEG and DTI data, measured on the same subjects. We also briefly discuss the emerging field of imaging genetics. PMID:25750690

  7. Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Seehars, Sebastian; Hasner, Caspar

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to the posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release.

  8. Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

    PubMed Central

    Rubio-Campillo, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953

  9. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Jia; Zhang, Jianqiu(Michelle); Qi, Yuan(Alan); Chen, Yidong; Huang, Yufei

    2010-12-01

    The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs) based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM) is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status and Estrogen Receptor negative ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status, respectively.

  10. Efficient multilevel brain tumor segmentation with integrated bayesian model classification.

    PubMed

    Corso, J J; Sharon, E; Dube, S; El-Saden, S; Sinha, U; Yuille, A

    2008-05-01

    We present a new method for automatic segmentation of heterogeneous image data that takes a step toward bridging the gap between bottom-up affinity-based segmentation methods and top-down generative model based approaches. The main contribution of the paper is a Bayesian formulation for incorporating soft model assignments into the calculation of affinities, which are conventionally model free. We integrate the resulting model-aware affinities into the multilevel segmentation by weighted aggregation algorithm, and apply the technique to the task of detecting and segmenting brain tumor and edema in multichannel magnetic resonance (MR) volumes. The computationally efficient method runs orders of magnitude faster than current state-of-the-art techniques giving comparable or improved results. Our quantitative results indicate the benefit of incorporating model-aware affinities into the segmentation process for the difficult case of glioblastoma multiforme brain tumor. PMID:18450536

  11. Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

    PubMed

    Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

    2016-08-01

    Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty. PMID:27566774

  12. Emulation: A fast stochastic Bayesian method to eliminate model space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Alan; Hobbs, Richard; Goldstein, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Joint inversion of large 3D datasets has been the goal of geophysicists ever since the datasets first started to be produced. There are two broad approaches to this kind of problem, traditional deterministic inversion schemes and more recently developed Bayesian search methods, such as MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo). However, using both these kinds of schemes has proved prohibitively expensive, both in computing power and time cost, due to the normally very large model space which needs to be searched using forward model simulators which take considerable time to run. At the heart of strategies aimed at accomplishing this kind of inversion is the question of how to reliably and practicably reduce the size of the model space in which the inversion is to be carried out. Here we present a practical Bayesian method, known as emulation, which can address this issue. Emulation is a Bayesian technique used with considerable success in a number of technical fields, such as in astronomy, where the evolution of the universe has been modelled using this technique, and in the petroleum industry where history matching is carried out of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The method of emulation involves building a fast-to-compute uncertainty-calibrated approximation to a forward model simulator. We do this by modelling the output data from a number of forward simulator runs by a computationally cheap function, and then fitting the coefficients defining this function to the model parameters. By calibrating the error of the emulator output with respect to the full simulator output, we can use this to screen out large areas of model space which contain only implausible models. For example, starting with what may be considered a geologically reasonable prior model space of 10000 models, using the emulator we can quickly show that only models which lie within 10% of that model space actually produce output data which is plausibly similar in character to an observed dataset. We can thus much

  13. Bayesian Learning of a Language Model from Continuous Speech

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neubig, Graham; Mimura, Masato; Mori, Shinsuke; Kawahara, Tatsuya

    We propose a novel scheme to learn a language model (LM) for automatic speech recognition (ASR) directly from continuous speech. In the proposed method, we first generate phoneme lattices using an acoustic model with no linguistic constraints, then perform training over these phoneme lattices, simultaneously learning both lexical units and an LM. As a statistical framework for this learning problem, we use non-parametric Bayesian statistics, which make it possible to balance the learned model's complexity (such as the size of the learned vocabulary) and expressive power, and provide a principled learning algorithm through the use of Gibbs sampling. Implementation is performed using weighted finite state transducers (WFSTs), which allow for the simple handling of lattice input. Experimental results on natural, adult-directed speech demonstrate that LMs built using only continuous speech are able to significantly reduce ASR phoneme error rates. The proposed technique of joint Bayesian learning of lexical units and an LM over lattices is shown to significantly contribute to this improvement.

  14. Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of national milk-recording data of seasonal-calving New Zealand dairy herds.

    PubMed

    Clements, A C A; Pfeiffer, D U; Hayes, D

    2005-10-12

    A spatio-temporal analysis was undertaken with the aim of identifying the dynamics of herd mean individual cow SCCs (MICSCC) in seasonally calving New Zealand dairy herds. Two datasets were extracted from the Livestock Improvement Corporation's extensive national dairy recording database: (1) milk-recording data aggregated at the herd-level and (2) sales questionnaire data containing information on the size, location and infrastructure of each farm. A Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach was applied to the analysis. The data were aggregated by 10 km(2) grid cells and linear regression models were developed with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, a linear temporal trend random effect and spatial-temporal interactions for log-transformed median MISCC (ln(median MISCC)). Significant associations were found between ln(median MISCC) and milk yield, milk fat, milk protein, farm area and number of cups in the dairy. This led us to suggest that SCCs should be adjusted for volume and constituents prior to determining a threshold MISCC for identification of subclinical mastitis (SCM) problem herds. Part, or all, of the temporal trend in MISCC in the spatio-temporal model was accounted for by inclusion of yield and milk constituents as independent variables. This supports the hypothesis of a dilution effect with potential consequences for misdiagnosis of SCM, particularly in late lactation. Unmeasured covariates were similarly likely to be spatially structured and unstructured. PMID:16107283

  15. Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias.

    PubMed

    Nishi, Ryosuke; Masuda, Naoki

    2013-06-01

    We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions. PMID:23848643

  16. A kinematic model for Bayesian tracking of cyclic human motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greif, Thomas; Lienhart, Rainer

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a two-dimensional kinematic model for cyclic motions of humans, which is suitable for the use as temporal prior in any Bayesian tracking framework. This human motion model is solely based on simple kinematic properties: the joint accelerations. Distributions of joint accelerations subject to the cycle progress are learned from training data. We present results obtained by applying the introduced model to the cyclic motion of backstroke swimming in a Kalman filter framework that represents the posterior distribution by a Gaussian. We experimentally evaluate the sensitivity of the motion model with respect to the frequency and noise level of assumed appearance-based pose measurements by simulating various fidelities of the pose measurements using ground truth data.

  17. Bayesian Dose-Response Modeling in Sparse Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Steven B.

    This book discusses Bayesian dose-response modeling in small samples applied to two different settings. The first setting is early phase clinical trials, and the second setting is toxicology studies in cancer risk assessment. In early phase clinical trials, experimental units are humans who are actual patients. Prior to a clinical trial, opinions from multiple subject area experts are generally more informative than the opinion of a single expert, but we may face a dilemma when they have disagreeing prior opinions. In this regard, we consider compromising the disagreement and compare two different approaches for making a decision. In addition to combining multiple opinions, we also address balancing two levels of ethics in early phase clinical trials. The first level is individual-level ethics which reflects the perspective of trial participants. The second level is population-level ethics which reflects the perspective of future patients. We extensively compare two existing statistical methods which focus on each perspective and propose a new method which balances the two conflicting perspectives. In toxicology studies, experimental units are living animals. Here we focus on a potential non-monotonic dose-response relationship which is known as hormesis. Briefly, hormesis is a phenomenon which can be characterized by a beneficial effect at low doses and a harmful effect at high doses. In cancer risk assessments, the estimation of a parameter, which is known as a benchmark dose, can be highly sensitive to a class of assumptions, monotonicity or hormesis. In this regard, we propose a robust approach which considers both monotonicity and hormesis as a possibility. In addition, We discuss statistical hypothesis testing for hormesis and consider various experimental designs for detecting hormesis based on Bayesian decision theory. Past experiments have not been optimally designed for testing for hormesis, and some Bayesian optimal designs may not be optimal under a

  18. Bayesian methods for model choice and propagation of model uncertainty in groundwater transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, B. S.; Draper, D.

    2008-12-01

    The issue of model uncertainty and model choice is central in any groundwater modeling effort [Neuman and Wierenga, 2003]; among the several approaches to the problem we favour using Bayesian statistics because it is a method that integrates in a natural way uncertainties (arising from any source) and experimental data. In this work, we experiment with several Bayesian approaches to model choice, focusing primarily on demonstrating the usefulness of the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) simulation method [Green, 1995]; this is an extension of the now- common MCMC methods. Standard MCMC techniques approximate posterior distributions for quantities of interest, often by creating a random walk in parameter space; RJMCMC allows the random walk to take place between parameter spaces with different dimensionalities. This fact allows us to explore state spaces that are associated with different deterministic models for experimental data. Our work is exploratory in nature; we restrict our study to comparing two simple transport models applied to a data set gathered to estimate the breakthrough curve for a tracer compound in groundwater. One model has a mean surface based on a simple advection dispersion differential equation; the second model's mean surface is also governed by a differential equation but in two dimensions. We focus on artificial data sets (in which truth is known) to see if model identification is done correctly, but we also address the issues of over and under-paramerization, and we compare RJMCMC's performance with other traditional methods for model selection and propagation of model uncertainty, including Bayesian model averaging, BIC and DIC.References Neuman and Wierenga (2003). A Comprehensive Strategy of Hydrogeologic Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Nuclear Facilities and Sites. NUREG/CR-6805, Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  19. Advanced REACH Tool: A Bayesian Model for Occupational Exposure Assessment

    PubMed Central

    McNally, Kevin; Warren, Nicholas; Fransman, Wouter; Entink, Rinke Klein; Schinkel, Jody; van Tongeren, Martie; Cherrie, John W.; Kromhout, Hans; Schneider, Thomas; Tielemans, Erik

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate sources of information within a Bayesian statistical framework. The information is obtained from expert knowledge expressed in a calibrated mechanistic model of exposure assessment, data on inter- and intra-individual variability in exposures from the literature, and context-specific exposure measurements. The ART provides central estimates and credible intervals for different percentiles of the exposure distribution, for full-shift and long-term average exposures. The ART can produce exposure estimates in the absence of measurements, but the precision of the estimates improves as more data become available. The methodology presented in this paper is able to utilize partially analogous data, a novel approach designed to make efficient use of a sparsely populated measurement database although some additional research is still required before practical implementation. The methodology is demonstrated using two worked examples: an exposure to copper pyrithione in the spraying of antifouling paints and an exposure to ethyl acetate in shoe repair. PMID:24665110

  20. Bayesian predictive modeling for genomic based personalized treatment selection.

    PubMed

    Ma, Junsheng; Stingo, Francesco C; Hobbs, Brian P

    2016-06-01

    Efforts to personalize medicine in oncology have been limited by reductive characterizations of the intrinsically complex underlying biological phenomena. Future advances in personalized medicine will rely on molecular signatures that derive from synthesis of multifarious interdependent molecular quantities requiring robust quantitative methods. However, highly parameterized statistical models when applied in these settings often require a prohibitively large database and are sensitive to proper characterizations of the treatment-by-covariate interactions, which in practice are difficult to specify and may be limited by generalized linear models. In this article, we present a Bayesian predictive framework that enables the integration of a high-dimensional set of genomic features with clinical responses and treatment histories of historical patients, providing a probabilistic basis for using the clinical and molecular information to personalize therapy for future patients. Our work represents one of the first attempts to define personalized treatment assignment rules based on large-scale genomic data. We use actual gene expression data acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas in the settings of leukemia and glioma to explore the statistical properties of our proposed Bayesian approach for personalizing treatment selection. The method is shown to yield considerable improvements in predictive accuracy when compared to penalized regression approaches. PMID:26575856

  1. Parameter Estimation and Parameterization Uncertainty Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, F. T.; Li, X.

    2007-12-01

    This study proposes Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address parameter estimation uncertainty arisen from non-uniqueness in parameterization methods. BMA provides a means of incorporating multiple parameterization methods for prediction through the law of total probability, with which an ensemble average of hydraulic conductivity distribution is obtained. Estimation uncertainty is described by the BMA variances, which contain variances within and between parameterization methods. BMA shows the facts that considering more parameterization methods tends to increase estimation uncertainty and estimation uncertainty is always underestimated using a single parameterization method. Two major problems in applying BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation using a groundwater inverse method will be discussed in the study. The first problem is the use of posterior probabilities in BMA, which tends to single out one best method and discard other good methods. This problem arises from Occam's window that only accepts models in a very narrow range. We propose a variance window to replace Occam's window to cope with this problem. The second problem is the use of Kashyap information criterion (KIC), which makes BMA tend to prefer high uncertain parameterization methods due to considering the Fisher information matrix. We found that Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is a good approximation to KIC and is able to avoid controversial results. We applied BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation in the 1,500-foot sand aquifer in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana.

  2. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    PubMed Central

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  3. Advanced REACH Tool: a Bayesian model for occupational exposure assessment.

    PubMed

    McNally, Kevin; Warren, Nicholas; Fransman, Wouter; Entink, Rinke Klein; Schinkel, Jody; van Tongeren, Martie; Cherrie, John W; Kromhout, Hans; Schneider, Thomas; Tielemans, Erik

    2014-06-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate sources of information within a Bayesian statistical framework. The information is obtained from expert knowledge expressed in a calibrated mechanistic model of exposure assessment, data on inter- and intra-individual variability in exposures from the literature, and context-specific exposure measurements. The ART provides central estimates and credible intervals for different percentiles of the exposure distribution, for full-shift and long-term average exposures. The ART can produce exposure estimates in the absence of measurements, but the precision of the estimates improves as more data become available. The methodology presented in this paper is able to utilize partially analogous data, a novel approach designed to make efficient use of a sparsely populated measurement database although some additional research is still required before practical implementation. The methodology is demonstrated using two worked examples: an exposure to copper pyrithione in the spraying of antifouling paints and an exposure to ethyl acetate in shoe repair. PMID:24665110

  4. Modeling the Climatology of Tornado Occurrence with Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Vincent Y. S.

    Our mechanistic understanding of tornadic environments has significantly improved by the recent technological enhancements in the detection of tornadoes as well as the advances of numerical weather predictive modeling. Nonetheless, despite the decades of active research, prediction of tornado occurrence remains one of the most difficult problems in meteorological and climate science. In our efforts to develop predictive tools for tornado occurrence, there are a number of issues to overcome, such as the treatment of inconsistent tornado records, the consideration of suitable combination of atmospheric predictors, and the selection of appropriate resolution to accommodate the variability in time and space. In this dissertation, I address each of these topics by undertaking three empirical (statistical) modeling studies, where I examine the signature of different atmospheric factors influencing the tornado occurrence, the sampling biases in tornado observations, and the optimal spatiotemporal resolution for studying tornado occurrence. In the first study, I develop a novel Bayesian statistical framework to assess the probability of tornado occurrence in Canada, in which the sampling bias of tornado observations and the linkage between lightning climatology and tornadogenesis are considered. The results produced reasonable probability estimates of tornado occurrence for the under-sampled areas in the model domain. The same study also delineated the geographical variability in the lightning-tornado relationship across Canada. In the second study, I present a novel modeling framework to examine the relative importance of several key atmospheric variables (e.g., convective available potential energy, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity, 0-6 km bulk wind difference, 0-tropopause vertical wind shear) on tornado activity in North America. I found that the variable quantifying the updraft strength is more important during the warm season, whereas the effects of wind

  5. Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

    PubMed

    Scheuerell, Mark D; Buhle, Eric R; Semmens, Brice X; Ford, Michael J; Cooney, Tom; Carmichael, Richard W

    2015-05-01

    Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors

  6. Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon

    PubMed Central

    Scheuerell, Mark D; Buhle, Eric R; Semmens, Brice X; Ford, Michael J; Cooney, Tom; Carmichael, Richard W

    2015-01-01

    Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0–8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological

  7. Model for Aggregated Water Heater Load Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai; Kalsi, Karanjit

    2012-07-19

    The transition to the new generation power grid, or “smart grid”, requires novel ways of using and analyzing data collected from the grid infrastructure. Fundamental functionalities like demand response (DR), that the smart grid needs, rely heavily on the ability of the energy providers and distributors to forecast the load behavior of appliances under different DR strategies. This paper presents a new model of aggregated water heater load, based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The model has been validated against simulated data from an open source distribution simulation software (GridLAB-D). The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the DBN model accurately tracks the load profile curves of aggregated water heaters under different testing scenarios.

  8. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  9. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  10. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2014-01-01

    In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

  11. Advances in Bayesian Model Based Clustering Using Particle Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Merl, D M

    2009-11-19

    Recent work by Carvalho, Johannes, Lopes and Polson and Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy introduced a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) alternative to traditional iterative Monte Carlo strategies (e.g. MCMC and EM) for Bayesian inference for a large class of dynamic models. The basis of SMC techniques involves representing the underlying inference problem as one of state space estimation, thus giving way to inference via particle filtering. The key insight of Carvalho et al was to construct the sequence of filtering distributions so as to make use of the posterior predictive distribution of the observable, a distribution usually only accessible in certain Bayesian settings. Access to this distribution allows a reversal of the usual propagate and resample steps characteristic of many SMC methods, thereby alleviating to a large extent many problems associated with particle degeneration. Furthermore, Carvalho et al point out that for many conjugate models the posterior distribution of the static variables can be parametrized in terms of [recursively defined] sufficient statistics of the previously observed data. For models where such sufficient statistics exist, particle learning as it is being called, is especially well suited for the analysis of streaming data do to the relative invariance of its algorithmic complexity with the number of data observations. Through a particle learning approach, a statistical model can be fit to data as the data is arriving, allowing at any instant during the observation process direct quantification of uncertainty surrounding underlying model parameters. Here we describe the use of a particle learning approach for fitting a standard Bayesian semiparametric mixture model as described in Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy. In Section 2 we briefly review the previously presented particle learning algorithm for the case of a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals. In Section 3 we describe several novel extensions to the original

  12. A Bayesian analysis of two probability models describing thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williford, W. O.; Hsieh, P.; Carter, M. C.

    1974-01-01

    A Bayesian analysis of the two discrete probability models, the negative binomial and the modified negative binomial distributions, which have been used to describe thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is presented. The Bayesian approach with beta prior distributions is compared to the classical approach which uses a moment method of estimation or a maximum-likelihood method. The accuracy and simplicity of the Bayesian method is demonstrated.

  13. Using hierarchical Bayesian binary probit models to analyze crash injury severity on high speed facilities with real-time traffic data.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2014-01-01

    Severe crashes are causing serious social and economic loss, and because of this, reducing crash injury severity has become one of the key objectives of the high speed facilities' (freeway and expressway) management. Traditional crash injury severity analysis utilized data mainly from crash reports concerning the crash occurrence information, drivers' characteristics and roadway geometric related variables. In this study, real-time traffic and weather data were introduced to analyze the crash injury severity. The space mean speeds captured by the Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system on the two roadways were used as explanatory variables in this study; and data from a mountainous freeway (I-70 in Colorado) and an urban expressway (State Road 408 in Orlando) have been used to identify the analysis result's consistence. Binary probit (BP) models were estimated to classify the non-severe (property damage only) crashes and severe (injury and fatality) crashes. Firstly, Bayesian BP models' results were compared to the results from Maximum Likelihood Estimation BP models and it was concluded that Bayesian inference was superior with more significant variables. Then different levels of hierarchical Bayesian BP models were developed with random effects accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity at segment level and crash individual level, respectively. Modeling results from both studied locations demonstrate that large variations of speed prior to the crash occurrence would increase the likelihood of severe crash occurrence. Moreover, with considering unobserved heterogeneity in the Bayesian BP models, the model goodness-of-fit has improved substantially. Finally, possible future applications of the model results and the hierarchical Bayesian probit models were discussed. PMID:24172082

  14. Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2006-01-01

    A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

  15. Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

  16. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  17. Integrated Bayesian network framework for modeling complex ecological issues.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-07-01

    The management of environmental problems is multifaceted, requiring varied and sometimes conflicting objectives and perspectives to be considered. Bayesian network (BN) modeling facilitates the integration of information from diverse sources and is well suited to tackling the management challenges of complex environmental problems. However, combining several perspectives in one model can lead to large, unwieldy BNs that are difficult to maintain and understand. Conversely, an oversimplified model may lead to an unrealistic representation of the environmental problem. Environmental managers require the current research and available knowledge about an environmental problem of interest to be consolidated in a meaningful way, thereby enabling the assessment of potential impacts and different courses of action. Previous investigations of the environmental problem of interest may have already resulted in the construction of several disparate ecological models. On the other hand, the opportunity may exist to initiate this modeling. In the first instance, the challenge is to integrate existing models and to merge the information and perspectives from these models. In the second instance, the challenge is to include different aspects of the environmental problem incorporating both the scientific and management requirements. Although the paths leading to the combined model may differ for these 2 situations, the common objective is to design an integrated model that captures the available information and research, yet is simple to maintain, expand, and refine. BN modeling is typically an iterative process, and we describe a heuristic method, the iterative Bayesian network development cycle (IBNDC), for the development of integrated BN models that are suitable for both situations outlined above. The IBNDC approach facilitates object-oriented BN (OOBN) modeling, arguably viewed as the next logical step in adaptive management modeling, and that embraces iterative development

  18. Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Malawi: Bayesian Geo-Additive Modelling.

    PubMed

    Ngwira, Alfred; Stanley, Christopher C

    2015-01-01

    Studies on factors of low birth weight in Malawi have neglected the flexible approach of using smooth functions for some covariates in models. Such flexible approach reveals detailed relationship of covariates with the response. The study aimed at investigating risk factors of low birth weight in Malawi by assuming a flexible approach for continuous covariates and geographical random effect. A Bayesian geo-additive model for birth weight in kilograms and size of the child at birth (less than average or average and higher) with district as a spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic and health survey data was adopted. A Gaussian model for birth weight in kilograms and a binary logistic model for the binary outcome (size of child at birth) were fitted. Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized (p) splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional p-spline. The study found that child birth order, mother weight and height are significant predictors of birth weight. Secondary education for mother, birth order categories 2-3 and 4-5, wealth index of richer family and mother height were significant predictors of child size at birth. The area associated with low birth weight was Chitipa and areas with increased risk to less than average size at birth were Chitipa and Mchinji. The study found support for the flexible modelling of some covariates that clearly have nonlinear influences. Nevertheless there is no strong support for inclusion of geographical spatial analysis. The spatial patterns though point to the influence of omitted variables with some spatial structure or possibly epidemiological processes that account for this spatial structure and the maps generated could be used for targeting development efforts at a glance. PMID:26114866

  19. Inversion of hierarchical Bayesian models using Gaussian processes.

    PubMed

    Lomakina, Ekaterina I; Paliwal, Saee; Diaconescu, Andreea O; Brodersen, Kay H; Aponte, Eduardo A; Buhmann, Joachim M; Stephan, Klaas E

    2015-09-01

    Over the past decade, computational approaches to neuroimaging have increasingly made use of hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs), either for inferring on physiological mechanisms underlying fMRI data (e.g., dynamic causal modelling, DCM) or for deriving computational trajectories (from behavioural data) which serve as regressors in general linear models. However, an unresolved problem is that standard methods for inverting the hierarchical Bayesian model are either very slow, e.g. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods (MCMC), or are vulnerable to local minima in non-convex optimisation problems, such as variational Bayes (VB). This article considers Gaussian process optimisation (GPO) as an alternative approach for global optimisation of sufficiently smooth and efficiently evaluable objective functions. GPO avoids being trapped in local extrema and can be computationally much more efficient than MCMC. Here, we examine the benefits of GPO for inverting HBMs commonly used in neuroimaging, including DCM for fMRI and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF). Importantly, to achieve computational efficiency despite high-dimensional optimisation problems, we introduce a novel combination of GPO and local gradient-based search methods. The utility of this GPO implementation for DCM and HGF is evaluated against MCMC and VB, using both synthetic data from simulations and empirical data. Our results demonstrate that GPO provides parameter estimates with equivalent or better accuracy than the other techniques, but at a fraction of the computational cost required for MCMC. We anticipate that GPO will prove useful for robust and efficient inversion of high-dimensional and nonlinear models of neuroimaging data. PMID:26048619

  20. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey data in Angola.

    PubMed

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006-2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  1. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    PubMed Central

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  2. A Bayesian Measurment Error Model for Misaligned Radiographic Data

    SciTech Connect

    Lennox, Kristin P.; Glascoe, Lee G.

    2013-09-06

    An understanding of the inherent variability in micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) data is essential to tasks such as statistical process control and the validation of radiographic simulation tools. The data present unique challenges to variability analysis due to the relatively low resolution of radiographs, and also due to minor variations from run to run which can result in misalignment or magnification changes between repeated measurements of a sample. Positioning changes artificially inflate the variability of the data in ways that mask true physical phenomena. We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model that incorporates both additive and multiplicative measurement error in addition to heteroscedasticity to address this problem. We also use this model to assess the effects of sample thickness and sample position on measurement variability for an aluminum specimen. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  3. GPU Computing in Bayesian Inference of Realized Stochastic Volatility Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    The realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model that utilizes the realized volatility as additional information has been proposed to infer volatility of financial time series. We consider the Bayesian inference of the RSV model by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. The HMC algorithm can be parallelized and thus performed on the GPU for speedup. The GPU code is developed with CUDA Fortran. We compare the computational time in performing the HMC algorithm on GPU (GTX 760) and CPU (Intel i7-4770 3.4GHz) and find that the GPU can be up to 17 times faster than the CPU. We also code the program with OpenACC and find that appropriate coding can achieve the similar speedup with CUDA Fortran.

  4. A Bayesian Measurment Error Model for Misaligned Radiographic Data

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Lennox, Kristin P.; Glascoe, Lee G.

    2013-09-06

    An understanding of the inherent variability in micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) data is essential to tasks such as statistical process control and the validation of radiographic simulation tools. The data present unique challenges to variability analysis due to the relatively low resolution of radiographs, and also due to minor variations from run to run which can result in misalignment or magnification changes between repeated measurements of a sample. Positioning changes artificially inflate the variability of the data in ways that mask true physical phenomena. We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model that incorporates both additive and multiplicative measurement error inmore » addition to heteroscedasticity to address this problem. We also use this model to assess the effects of sample thickness and sample position on measurement variability for an aluminum specimen. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.« less

  5. Modelling categorical covariates in Bayesian disease mapping by partition structures.

    PubMed

    Giudici, P; Knorr-Held, L; Rasser, G

    We consider the problem of mapping the risk from a disease using a series of regional counts of observed and expected cases, and information on potential risk factors. To analyse this problem from a Bayesian viewpoint, we propose a methodology which extends a spatial partition model by including categorical covariate information. Such an extension allows detection of clusters in the residual variation, reflecting further, possibly unobserved, covariates. The methodology is implemented by means of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. An application is presented in order to illustrate and compare our proposed extensions with a purely spatial partition model. Here we analyse a well-known data set on lip cancer incidence in Scotland. PMID:10960873

  6. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-01-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. Key Points An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conducted Bayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choices Source apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches PMID

  7. Bayesian model-averaged benchmark dose analysis via reparameterized quantal-response models.

    PubMed

    Fang, Q; Piegorsch, W W; Simmons, S J; Li, X; Chen, C; Wang, Y

    2015-12-01

    An important objective in biomedical and environmental risk assessment is estimation of minimum exposure levels that induce a pre-specified adverse response in a target population. The exposure points in such settings are typically referred to as benchmark doses (BMDs). Parametric Bayesian estimation for finding BMDs has grown in popularity, and a large variety of candidate dose-response models is available for applying these methods. Each model can possess potentially different parametric interpretation(s), however. We present reparameterized dose-response models that allow for explicit use of prior information on the target parameter of interest, the BMD. We also enhance our Bayesian estimation technique for BMD analysis by applying Bayesian model averaging to produce point estimates and (lower) credible bounds, overcoming associated questions of model adequacy when multimodel uncertainty is present. An example from carcinogenicity testing illustrates the calculations. PMID:26102570

  8. Diagnosing Hybrid Systems: a Bayesian Model Selection Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McIlraith, Sheila A.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diagnosing noisy complex dynamical systems that are modeled as hybrid systems-models of continuous behavior, interleaved by discrete transitions. In particular, we examine continuous systems with embedded supervisory controllers that experience abrupt, partial or full failure of component devices. Building on our previous work in this area (MBCG99;MBCG00), our specific focus in this paper ins on the mathematical formulation of the hybrid monitoring and diagnosis task as a Bayesian model tracking algorithm. The nonlinear dynamics of many hybrid systems present challenges to probabilistic tracking. Further, probabilistic tracking of a system for the purposes of diagnosis is problematic because the models of the system corresponding to failure modes are numerous and generally very unlikely. To focus tracking on these unlikely models and to reduce the number of potential models under consideration, we exploit logic-based techniques for qualitative model-based diagnosis to conjecture a limited initial set of consistent candidate models. In this paper we discuss alternative tracking techniques that are relevant to different classes of hybrid systems, focusing specifically on a method for tracking multiple models of nonlinear behavior simultaneously using factored sampling and conditional density propagation. To illustrate and motivate the approach described in this paper we examine the problem of monitoring and diganosing NASA's Sprint AERCam, a small spherical robotic camera unit with 12 thrusters that enable both linear and rotational motion.

  9. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  10. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans.

    PubMed

    Kalet, Alan M; Gennari, John H; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network's conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures. PMID:25768885