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Sample records for bayesian surprise attracts

  1. Of Bits and Wows: A Bayesian Theory of Surprise with Applications to Attention

    PubMed Central

    Baldi, Pierre; Itti, Laurent

    2010-01-01

    The amount of information contained in a piece of data can be measured by the effect this data has on its observer. Fundamentally, this effect is to transform the observer's prior beliefs into posterior beliefs, according to Bayes theorem. Thus the amount of information can be measured in a natural way by the distance (relative entropy) between the prior and posterior distributions of the observer over the available space of hypotheses. This facet of information, termed “surprise”, is important in dynamic situations where beliefs change, in particular during learning and adaptation. Surprise can often be computed analytically, for instance in the case of distributions from the exponential family, or it can be numerically approximated. During sequential Bayesian learning, surprise decreases like the inverse of the number of training examples. Theoretical properties of surprise are discussed, in particular how it differs and complements Shannon's definition of information. A computer vision neural network architecture is then presented capable of computing surprise over images and video stimuli. Hypothesizing that surprising data ought to attract natural or artificial attention systems, the output of this architecture is used in a psychophysical experiment to analyze human eye movements in the presence of natural video stimuli. Surprise is found to yield robust performance at predicting human gaze (ROC-like ordinal dominance score ∼ 0.7 compared to ∼ 0.8 for human inter-observer repeatability, ∼ 0.6 for simpler intensity contrast-based predictor, and 0.5 for chance). The resulting theory of surprise is applicable across different spatio-temporal scales, modalities, and levels of abstraction. PMID:20080025

  2. Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adler, Jonathan E.

    2008-01-01

    Surprise is of great value for learning, especially in cases where deep-seated preconceptions and assumptions are upset by vivid demonstrations. In this essay, Jonathan Adler explores the ways in which surprise positively affects us and serves as a valuable tool for motivating learning. Adler considers how students' attention is aroused and…

  3. Surprise Calculator: Estimating relative entropy and Surprise between samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seehars, Sebastian

    2016-05-01

    The Surprise is a measure for consistency between posterior distributions and operates in parameter space. It can be used to analyze either the compatibility of separately analyzed posteriors from two datasets, or the posteriors from a Bayesian update. The Surprise Calculator estimates relative entropy and Surprise between two samples, assuming they are Gaussian. The software requires the R package CompQuadForm to estimate the significance of the Surprise, and rpy2 to interface R with Python.

  4. Surprise beyond prediction error

    PubMed Central

    Chumbley, Justin R; Burke, Christopher J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J; Tobler, Philippe N; Fehr, Ernst

    2014-01-01

    Surprise drives learning. Various neural “prediction error” signals are believed to underpin surprise-based reinforcement learning. Here, we report a surprise signal that reflects reinforcement learning but is neither un/signed reward prediction error (RPE) nor un/signed state prediction error (SPE). To exclude these alternatives, we measured surprise responses in the absence of RPE and accounted for a host of potential SPE confounds. This new surprise signal was evident in ventral striatum, primary sensory cortex, frontal poles, and amygdala. We interpret these findings via a normative model of surprise. PMID:24700400

  5. Pepper Oil Surprise

    NASA Video Gallery

    Astronauts Cady Coleman and Paolo Nespoli perform the Pepper Oil Surprise experiment from Potlatch Elementary School in Potlatch, Idaho. This research investigates the interaction of liquid pepper/...

  6. Novelty or Surprise?

    PubMed Central

    Barto, Andrew; Mirolli, Marco; Baldassarre, Gianluca

    2013-01-01

    Novelty and surprise play significant roles in animal behavior and in attempts to understand the neural mechanisms underlying it. They also play important roles in technology, where detecting observations that are novel or surprising is central to many applications, such as medical diagnosis, text processing, surveillance, and security. Theories of motivation, particularly of intrinsic motivation, place novelty and surprise among the primary factors that arouse interest, motivate exploratory or avoidance behavior, and drive learning. In many of these studies, novelty and surprise are not distinguished from one another: the words are used more-or-less interchangeably. However, while undeniably closely related, novelty and surprise are very different. The purpose of this article is first to highlight the differences between novelty and surprise and to discuss how they are related by presenting an extensive review of mathematical and computational proposals related to them, and then to explore the implications of this for understanding behavioral and neuroscience data. We argue that opportunities for improved understanding of behavior and its neural basis are likely being missed by failing to distinguish between novelty and surprise. PMID:24376428

  7. Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics.

    PubMed

    Balbus, Steven A; Potter, William J

    2016-06-01

    Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one's a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject. PMID:27116247

  8. A New Sputnik Surprise?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lowman, Paul D., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggests that a new "Sputnik surprise" in the form of a joint Chinese-Russian lunar base program may emerge in this decade. The Moon as a whole has been shown to be territory of strategic value, with discovery of large amounts of hydrogen (probably water ice) at the lunar poles and helium 3 everywhere in the soil, in addition to the Moon's scientific value as an object of study and as a platform for astronomy. There is thus good reason for a return to the Moon, robotically or manned. Relations between China and Russia have thawed since the mid-1990s, and the two countries have a formal space cooperation pact. It is argued here that a manned lunar program would be feasible within 5 years, using modern technology and proven spacecraft and launch vehicles. The combination of Russian lunar hardware with Chinese space technology would permit the two countries together to take the lead in solar system exploration in the 21st century.

  9. Surprises in astrophysical gasdynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbus, Steven A.; Potter, William J.

    2016-06-01

    Much of astrophysics consists of the study of ionized gas under the influence of gravitational and magnetic fields. Thus, it is not possible to understand the astrophysical universe without a detailed knowledge of the dynamics of magnetized fluids. Fluid dynamics is, however, a notoriously tricky subject, in which it is all too easy for one’s a priori intuition to go astray. In this review, we seek to guide the reader through a series of illuminating yet deceptive problems, all with an enlightening twist. We cover a broad range of topics including the instabilities acting in accretion discs, the hydrodynamics governing the convective zone of the Sun, the magnetic shielding of a cooling galaxy cluster, and the behaviour of thermal instabilities and evaporating clouds. The aim of this review is to surprise and intrigue even veteran astrophysical theorists with an idiosyncratic choice of problems and counterintuitive results. At the same time, we endeavour to bring forth the fundamental ideas, to set out important assumptions, and to describe carefully whatever novel techniques may be appropriate to the problem at hand. By beginning at the beginning, and analysing a wide variety of astrophysical settings, we seek not only to make this review suitable for fluid dynamic veterans, but to engage novice recruits as well with what we hope will be an unusual and instructive introduction to the subject.

  10. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

  11. Detecting communities using asymptotical surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traag, V. A.; Aldecoa, R.; Delvenne, J.-C.

    2015-08-01

    Nodes in real-world networks are repeatedly observed to form dense clusters, often referred to as communities. Methods to detect these groups of nodes usually maximize an objective function, which implicitly contains the definition of a community. We here analyze a recently proposed measure called surprise, which assesses the quality of the partition of a network into communities. In its current form, the formulation of surprise is rather difficult to analyze. We here therefore develop an accurate asymptotic approximation. This allows for the development of an efficient algorithm for optimizing surprise. Incidentally, this leads to a straightforward extension of surprise to weighted graphs. Additionally, the approximation makes it possible to analyze surprise more closely and compare it to other methods, especially modularity. We show that surprise is (nearly) unaffected by the well-known resolution limit, a particular problem for modularity. However, surprise may tend to overestimate the number of communities, whereas they may be underestimated by modularity. In short, surprise works well in the limit of many small communities, whereas modularity works better in the limit of few large communities. In this sense, surprise is more discriminative than modularity and may find communities where modularity fails to discern any structure.

  12. Facial attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Thornhill; Gangestad

    1999-12-01

    Humans in societies around the world discriminate between potential mates on the basis of attractiveness in ways that can dramatically affect their lives. From an evolutionary perspective, a reasonable working hypothesis is that the psychological mechanisms underlying attractiveness judgments are adaptations that have evolved in the service of choosing a mate so as to increase gene propagation throughout evolutionary history. The main hypothesis that has directed evolutionary psychology research into facial attractiveness is that these judgments reflect information about what can be broadly defined as an individual's health. This has been investigated by examining whether attractiveness judgments show special design for detecting cues that allow us to make assessments of overall phenotypic condition. This review examines the three major lines of research that have been pursued in order to answer the question of whether attractiveness reflects non-obvious indicators of phenotypic condition. These are studies that have examined facial symmetry, averageness, and secondary sex characteristics as hormone markers. PMID:10562724

  13. Bayesian Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Donald L.

    Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

  14. BMDS: A Collection of R Functions for Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okada, Kensuke; Shigemasu, Kazuo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) has attracted a great deal of attention because: (1) it provides a better fit than do classical MDS and ALSCAL; (2) it provides estimation errors of the distances; and (3) the Bayesian dimension selection criterion, MDSIC, provides a direct indication of optimal dimensionality. However, Bayesian MDS is not…

  15. Eigenvalue Attraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Movassagh, Ramis

    2016-02-01

    We prove that the complex conjugate (c.c.) eigenvalues of a smoothly varying real matrix attract (Eq. 15). We offer a dynamical perspective on the motion and interaction of the eigenvalues in the complex plane, derive their governing equations and discuss applications. C.c. pairs closest to the real axis, or those that are ill-conditioned, attract most strongly and can collide to become exactly real. As an application we consider random perturbations of a fixed matrix M. If M is Normal, the total expected force on any eigenvalue is shown to be only the attraction of its c.c. (Eq. 24) and when M is circulant the strength of interaction can be related to the power spectrum of white noise. We extend this by calculating the expected force (Eq. 41) for real stochastic processes with zero-mean and independent intervals. To quantify the dominance of the c.c. attraction, we calculate the variance of other forces. We apply the results to the Hatano-Nelson model and provide other numerical illustrations. It is our hope that the simple dynamical perspective herein might help better understanding of the aggregation and low density of the eigenvalues of real random matrices on and near the real line respectively. In the appendix we provide a Matlab code for plotting the trajectories of the eigenvalues.

  16. Acoustic Attraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oviatt, Eric; Patsiaouris, Konstantinos; Denardo, Bruce

    2009-11-01

    A sound source of finite size produces a diverging traveling wave in an unbounded fluid. A rigid body that is small compared to the wavelength experiences an attractive radiation force (toward the source). An attractive force is also exerted on the fluid itself. The effect can be demonstrated with a styrofoam ball suspended near a loudspeaker that is producing sound of high amplitude and low frequency (for example, 100 Hz). The behavior can be understood and roughly calculated as a time-averaged Bernoulli effect. A rigorous scattering calculation yields a radiation force that is within a factor of two of the Bernoulli result. For a spherical wave, the force decreases as the inverse fifth power of the distance from the source. Applications of the phenomenon include ultrasonic filtration of liquids and the growth of supermassive black holes that emit sound waves in a surrounding plasma. An experiment is being conducted in an anechoic chamber with a 1-inch diameter aluminum ball that is suspended from an analytical balance. Directly below the ball is a baffled loudspeaker that exerts an attractive force that is measured by the balance.

  17. Seven surprises for new CEOs.

    PubMed

    Porter, Michael E; Lorsch, Jay W; Nohria, Nitin

    2004-10-01

    As a newly minted CEO, you may think you finally have the power to set strategy, the authority to make things happen, and full access to the finer points of your business. But if you expect the job to be as simple as that, you're in for an awakening. Even though you bear full responsibility for your company's well-being, you are a few steps removed from many of the factors that drive results. You have more power than anybody else in the corporation, but you need to use it with extreme caution. In their workshops for new CEOs, held at Harvard Business School in Boston, the authors have discovered that nothing--not even running a large business within the company--fully prepares a person to be the chief executive. The seven most common surprises are: You can't run the company. Giving orders is very costly. It is hard to know what is really going on. You are always sending a message. You are not the boss. Pleasing shareholders is not the goal. You are still only human. These surprises carry some important and subtle lessons. First, you must learn to manage organizational context rather than focus on daily operations. Second, you must recognize that your position does not confer the right to lead, nor does it guarantee the loyalty of the organization. Finally, you must remember that you are subject to a host of limitations, even though others might treat you as omnipotent. How well and how quickly you understand, accept, and confront the seven surprises will have a lot to do with your success or failure as a CEO. PMID:15559576

  18. Surprises in the RHIC data

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, J.H.

    2003-05-22

    The data from RHIC have produced many unanticipated results. I will describe a few of the surprises that occur in the soft spectra while my colleagues at this conference will summarize the hard spectra. One particularly important discovery is that properties of the initial state have an impact on the final state in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Another important discovery is that the collision zone is opaque to the passage of hadrons and perhaps even partons. And finally, the data tell us very precisely where the colliding systems hadronize on the phase diagram for nuclear matter.

  19. Attracting IPPs

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, M.T.

    1995-10-01

    Brazil faces a need to expand electric generation capacity by 25 gigawatts (GW) through the year 2004. This means that about 10,350 MW plants need to be installed during each of the next eight years. The situation is particularly serious in the populous, industrialized south and southeastern regions. As a result, the new government is taking measures to attract private power developers and accelerate privatization. This progress is encouraging, but a number of fundamental issues must be addressed before IPPs can begin meeting the power demands. Stumbling blocks remain: regulatory hurdles, market imbalances, credit worthiness concerns and a history of political and economic volatility.

  20. Small is beautiful: Surprising nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Duchêne, Dominique; Gref, Ruxandra

    2016-04-11

    In the preparation of nanoparticles for drug delivery, it is well known that their size as well as their surface decorations can play a major role in interaction with living media. It is less known that their shape and internal structure can interplay with cellular and in vivo fate. The scientific literature is full of a large variety of surprising terms referring to their shape and structure. The aim of this review is to present some examples of the most often encountered surprising nanoparticles prepared and usable in the pharmaceutical technology domain. They are presented in two main groups related to their physical aspects: 1) smooth surface particles, such as Janus particles, "snowmen", "dumbbells", "rattles", and "onions" and 2) branched particles, such as "flowers", "stars" and "urchins". The mode of preparation and potential applications are briefly presented. The topic has a serious, wider importance, namely in opportunity these structures have to allow exploration of the role of shape and structure on the utility (and perhaps toxicity) of these nanostructures. PMID:26902723

  1. Researchers Uncover Surprises about Celiac Disease

    MedlinePlus

    ... news/fullstory_159122.html Researchers Uncover Surprises About Celiac Disease Immune condition most common among people descended ... has revealed some surprising findings about who develops celiac disease in the United States. The study found ...

  2. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-01-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are…

  3. Bayesian learning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denning, Peter J.

    1989-01-01

    In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

  4. Young Galaxy's Magnetism Surprises Astronomers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2008-10-01

    Astronomers have made the first direct measurement of the magnetic field in a young, distant galaxy, and the result is a big surprise. Looking at a faraway protogalaxy seen as it was 6.5 billion years ago, the scientists measured a magnetic field at least 10 times stronger than that of our own Milky Way. They had expected just the opposite. The GBT Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope CREDIT: NRAO/AUI/NSF The scientists made the discovery using the National Science Foundation's ultra-sensitive Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) in West Virginia. "This new measurement indicates that magnetic fields may play a more important role in the formation and evolution of galaxies than we have realized," said Arthur Wolfe, of the University of California-San Diego (UCSD). At its great distance, the protogalaxy is seen as it was when the Universe was about half its current age. According to the leading theory, cosmic magnetic fields are generated by the dynamos of rotating galaxies -- a process that would produce stronger fields with the passage of time. In this scenario, the magnetic fields should be weaker in the earlier Universe, not stronger. The new, direct magnetic-field measurement comes on the heels of a July report by Swiss and American astronomers who made indirect measurements that also implied strong magnetic fields in the early Universe. "Our results present a challenge to the dynamo model, but they do not rule it out," Wolfe said. There are other possible explanations for the strong magnetic field seen in the one protogalaxy Wolfe's team studied. "We may be seeing the field close to the central region of a massive galaxy, and we know such fields are stronger toward the centers of nearby galaxies. Also, the field we see may have been amplified by a shock wave caused by the collision of two galaxies," he said. The protogalaxy studied with the GBT, called DLA-3C286, consists of gas with little or no star formation occurring in it. The astronomers suspect that

  5. Neural dynamics of prediction and surprise in infants

    PubMed Central

    Kouider, Sid; Long, Bria; Le Stanc, Lorna; Charron, Sylvain; Fievet, Anne-Caroline; Barbosa, Leonardo S.; Gelskov, Sofie V.

    2015-01-01

    Prior expectations shape neural responses in sensory regions of the brain, consistent with a Bayesian predictive coding account of perception. Yet, it remains unclear whether such a mechanism is already functional during early stages of development. To address this issue, we study how the infant brain responds to prediction violations using a cross-modal cueing paradigm. We record electroencephalographic responses to expected and unexpected visual events preceded by auditory cues in 12-month-old infants. We find an increased response for unexpected events. However, this effect of prediction error is only observed during late processing stages associated with conscious access mechanisms. In contrast, early perceptual components reveal an amplification of neural responses for predicted relative to surprising events, suggesting that selective attention enhances perceptual processing for expected events. Taken together, these results demonstrate that cross-modal statistical regularities are used to generate predictions that differentially influence early and late neural responses in infants. PMID:26460901

  6. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

    PubMed Central

    van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

  7. Bayesian diagnostic theory using a programmable pocket calculator.

    PubMed

    Edwards, F H; Graeber, G M

    1987-01-01

    A programmable pocket calculator program has been written to serve as an aid in diagnosis. The program uses a Bayesian statistical algorithm to calculate the relative probability of two diagnostic alternatives. The ability to carry out Bayesian statistical calculations at the bedside should make the use of such techniques more attractive to clinical practitioners. PMID:3319380

  8. Evaluative Appraisals of Environmental Mystery and Surprise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nasar, Jack L.; Cubukcu, Ebru

    2011-01-01

    This study used a desktop virtual environment (VE) of 15 large-scale residential streets to test the effects of environmental mystery and surprise on response. In theory, mystery and surprise should increase interest and visual appeal. For each VE, participants walked through an approach street and turned right onto a post-turn street. We designed…

  9. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  10. Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

    PubMed

    Campbell, John O

    2016-01-01

    Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature. PMID:27375438

  11. Some Surprising Introductory Physics Facts and Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallmann, A. James

    2016-04-01

    In the entertainment world, people usually like, and find memorable, novels, short stories, and movies with surprise endings. This suggests that classroom teachers might want to present to their students examples of surprising facts associated with principles of physics. Possible benefits of finding surprising facts about principles of physics are opportunities to expand beyond traditional presentations—and, in some cases, to achieve a deeper and broader understanding of those principles. I believe, moreover, that some of the facts presented here may inspire physics teachers to produce some challenge problems for students.

  12. A toolkit for detecting technical surprise.

    SciTech Connect

    Trahan, Michael Wayne; Foehse, Mark C.

    2010-10-01

    The detection of a scientific or technological surprise within a secretive country or institute is very difficult. The ability to detect such surprises would allow analysts to identify the capabilities that could be a military or economic threat to national security. Sandia's current approach utilizing ThreatView has been successful in revealing potential technological surprises. However, as data sets become larger, it becomes critical to use algorithms as filters along with the visualization environments. Our two-year LDRD had two primary goals. First, we developed a tool, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), to extend ThreatView and improve our understanding of the issues involved in working with textual data sets. Second, we developed a toolkit for detecting indicators of technical surprise in textual data sets. Our toolkit has been successfully used to perform technology assessments for the Science & Technology Intelligence (S&TI) program.

  13. Bayesian superresolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isakson, Steve Wesley

    2001-12-01

    Well-known principles of physics explain why resolution restrictions occur in images produced by optical diffraction-limited systems. The limitations involved are present in all diffraction-limited imaging systems, including acoustical and microwave. In most circumstances, however, prior knowledge about the object and the imaging system can lead to resolution improvements. In this dissertation I outline a method to incorporate prior information into the process of reconstructing images to superresolve the object beyond the above limitations. This dissertation research develops the details of this methodology. The approach can provide the most-probable global solution employing a finite number of steps in both far-field and near-field images. In addition, in order to overcome the effects of noise present in any imaging system, this technique provides a weighted image that quantifies the likelihood of various imaging solutions. By utilizing Bayesian probability, the procedure is capable of incorporating prior information about both the object and the noise to overcome the resolution limitation present in many imaging systems. Finally I will present an imaging system capable of detecting the evanescent waves missing from far-field systems, thus improving the resolution further.

  14. Bayesianism Versus Confirmation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strevens, Michael

    2014-03-01

    The usual Bayesian approach to understanding the confirmation of scientific theories is inadequate. The problem lies not with Bayesian epistemology, but with a simplistic equation of the subjective, individualistic evidential relevance relation that Bayesianism attempts to capture and the more objective relevance relation of confirmation.

  15. Some Surprising Errors in Numerical Differentiation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2012-01-01

    Data analysis methods, both numerical and visual, are used to discover a variety of surprising patterns in the errors associated with successive approximations to the derivatives of sinusoidal and exponential functions based on the Newton difference-quotient. L'Hopital's rule and Taylor polynomial approximations are then used to explain why these…

  16. Surprising Connections between Partitions and Divisors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osler, Thomas J.; Hassen, Abdulkadir; Chandrupatla, Tirupathi R.

    2007-01-01

    The sum of the divisors of a positive integer is one of the most interesting concepts in multiplicative number theory, while the number of ways of expressing a number as a sum is a primary topic in additive number theory. In this article, we describe some of the surprising connections between and similarities of these two concepts.

  17. An Ordinary but Surprisingly Powerful Theorem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sultan, Alan

    2009-01-01

    Being a mathematician, the author started to wonder if there are any theorems in mathematics that seem very ordinary on the outside, but when applied, have surprisingly far reaching consequences. The author thought about this and came up with the following unlikely candidate which follows immediately from the definition of the area of a rectangle…

  18. Expect Surprises with 1-to-1 Laptops

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tusch, Erich G.

    2012-01-01

    The prospect of radically changing teaching and learning by issuing a laptop computer to every student and teacher is an exciting one, but it carried big risks and would take time and thorough planning to execute well. But even thorough planning can't prevent the unanticipated. In this article, the author counts six major surprises during his time…

  19. Attractiveness and School Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salvia, John; And Others

    1977-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to ascertain the relationship between rated attractiveness and two measures of school performance. Attractive children received significantly higher report cards and, to some degree, higher achievement test scores than their unattractive peers. (Author)

  20. Radar Design to Protect Against Surprise.

    SciTech Connect

    Doerry, Armin W.

    2015-02-01

    Technological and doctrinal surprise is about rendering preparations for conflict as irrelevant or ineffective . For a sensor, this means essentially rendering the sensor as irrelevant or ineffective in its ability to help determine truth. Recovery from this sort of surprise is facilitated by flexibility in our own technology and doctrine. For a sensor, this mean s flexibility in its architecture, design, tactics, and the designing organizations ' processes. - 4 - Acknowledgements This report is the result of a n unfunded research and development activity . Sandia National Laboratories is a multi - program laboratory manage d and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE - AC04 - 94AL85000.

  1. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2014-02-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  2. Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobson, Michael P.; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Liddle, Andrew R.; Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David

    2009-12-01

    Preface; Part I. Methods: 1. Foundations and algorithms John Skilling; 2. Simple applications of Bayesian methods D. S. Sivia and Steve Rawlings; 3. Parameter estimation using Monte Carlo sampling Antony Lewis and Sarah Bridle; 4. Model selection and multi-model interference Andrew R. Liddle, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 5. Bayesian experimental design and model selection forecasting Roberto Trotta, Martin Kunz, Pia Mukherjee and David Parkinson; 6. Signal separation in cosmology M. P. Hobson, M. A. J. Ashdown and V. Stolyarov; Part II. Applications: 7. Bayesian source extraction M. P. Hobson, Graça Rocha and R. Savage; 8. Flux measurement Daniel Mortlock; 9. Gravitational wave astronomy Neil Cornish; 10. Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background data Andrew H. Jaffe; 11. Bayesian multilevel modelling of cosmological populations Thomas J. Loredo and Martin A. Hendry; 12. A Bayesian approach to galaxy evolution studies Stefano Andreon; 13. Photometric redshift estimation: methods and applications Ofer Lahav, Filipe B. Abdalla and Manda Banerji; Index.

  3. Pupil size tracks perceptual content and surprise.

    PubMed

    Kloosterman, Niels A; Meindertsma, Thomas; van Loon, Anouk M; Lamme, Victor A F; Bonneh, Yoram S; Donner, Tobias H

    2015-04-01

    Changes in pupil size at constant light levels reflect the activity of neuromodulatory brainstem centers that control global brain state. These endogenously driven pupil dynamics can be synchronized with cognitive acts. For example, the pupil dilates during the spontaneous switches of perception of a constant sensory input in bistable perceptual illusions. It is unknown whether this pupil dilation only indicates the occurrence of perceptual switches, or also their content. Here, we measured pupil diameter in human subjects reporting the subjective disappearance and re-appearance of a physically constant visual target surrounded by a moving pattern ('motion-induced blindness' illusion). We show that the pupil dilates during the perceptual switches in the illusion and a stimulus-evoked 'replay' of that illusion. Critically, the switch-related pupil dilation encodes perceptual content, with larger amplitude for disappearance than re-appearance. This difference in pupil response amplitude enables prediction of the type of report (disappearance vs. re-appearance) on individual switches (receiver-operating characteristic: 61%). The amplitude difference is independent of the relative durations of target-visible and target-invisible intervals and subjects' overt behavioral report of the perceptual switches. Further, we show that pupil dilation during the replay also scales with the level of surprise about the timing of switches, but there is no evidence for an interaction between the effects of surprise and perceptual content on the pupil response. Taken together, our results suggest that pupil-linked brain systems track both the content of, and surprise about, perceptual events. PMID:25754528

  4. The alkali metals: 200 years of surprises.

    PubMed

    Dye, James L

    2015-03-13

    Alkali metal compounds have been known since antiquity. In 1807, Sir Humphry Davy surprised everyone by electrolytically preparing (and naming) potassium and sodium metals. In 1808, he noted their interaction with ammonia, which, 100 years later, was attributed to solvated electrons. After 1960, pulse radiolysis of nearly any solvent produced solvated electrons, which became one of the most studied species in chemistry. In 1968, alkali metal solutions in amines and ethers were shown to contain alkali metal anions in addition to solvated electrons. The advent of crown ethers and cryptands as complexants for alkali cations greatly enhanced alkali metal solubilities. This permitted us to prepare a crystalline salt of Na(-) in 1974, followed by 30 other alkalides with Na(-), K(-), Rb(-) and Cs(-) anions. This firmly established the -1 oxidation state of alkali metals. The synthesis of alkalides led to the crystallization of electrides, with trapped electrons as the anions. Electrides have a variety of electronic and magnetic properties, depending on the geometries and connectivities of the trapping sites. In 2009, the final surprise was the experimental demonstration that alkali metals under high pressure lose their metallic character as the electrons are localized in voids between the alkali cations to become high-pressure electrides! PMID:25666067

  5. Assertiveness and Physical Attractiveness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleim, David M.; And Others

    Earlier research investigating the relationship between physical attractiveness and assertiveness found that physically attractive females were more assertive than other females. To investigate this relationship further and to broaden the scope of the study, 69 students were videotaped in groups of five to ten while responding to open-ended…

  6. Intelligence and Physical Attractiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanazawa, Satoshi

    2011-01-01

    This brief research note aims to estimate the magnitude of the association between general intelligence and physical attractiveness with large nationally representative samples from two nations. In the United Kingdom, attractive children are more intelligent by 12.4 IQ points (r=0.381), whereas in the United States, the correlation between…

  7. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  8. A New Bayesian Lasso

    PubMed Central

    Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

    2016-01-01

    Park and Casella (2008) provided the Bayesian lasso for linear models by assigning scale mixture of normal (SMN) priors on the parameters and independent exponential priors on their variances. In this paper, we propose an alternative Bayesian analysis of the lasso problem. A different hierarchical formulation of Bayesian lasso is introduced by utilizing the scale mixture of uniform (SMU) representation of the Laplace density. We consider a fully Bayesian treatment that leads to a new Gibbs sampler with tractable full conditional posterior distributions. Empirical results and real data analyses show that the new algorithm has good mixing property and performs comparably to the existing Bayesian method in terms of both prediction accuracy and variable selection. An ECM algorithm is provided to compute the MAP estimates of the parameters. Easy extension to general models is also briefly discussed.

  9. Stroke Recovery: Surprising Influences and Residual Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Hillis, Argye E.; Tippett, Donna C.

    2014-01-01

    There is startling individual variability in the degree to which people recover from stroke and the duration of time over which recovery of some symptoms occurs. There are a variety of mechanisms of recovery from stroke which take place at distinct time points after stroke and are influenced by different variables. We review recent studies from our laboratory that unveil some surprising findings, such as the role of education in chronic recovery. We also report data showing that the consequences that most plague survivors of stroke and their caregivers are loss of high level cortical functions, such as empathy or written language. These results have implications for rehabilitation and management of stroke. PMID:25844378

  10. Deciphering Network Community Structure by Surprise

    PubMed Central

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of complex networks permeates all sciences, from biology to sociology. A fundamental, unsolved problem is how to characterize the community structure of a network. Here, using both standard and novel benchmarks, we show that maximization of a simple global parameter, which we call Surprise (S), leads to a very efficient characterization of the community structure of complex synthetic networks. Particularly, S qualitatively outperforms the most commonly used criterion to define communities, Newman and Girvan's modularity (Q). Applying S maximization to real networks often provides natural, well-supported partitions, but also sometimes counterintuitive solutions that expose the limitations of our previous knowledge. These results indicate that it is possible to define an effective global criterion for community structure and open new routes for the understanding of complex networks. PMID:21909420

  11. Surprises and mysteries in urban soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groffman, P. M.

    2015-12-01

    In the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, one of two urban long-term ecological research (LTER) projects funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, we are using "the watershed approach" to integrate ecological, physical and social sciences. Urban and suburban watershed input/output budgets for nitrogen have shown surprisingly high retention which has led to detailed analysis of sources and sinks in soils these watersheds. Home lawns, thought to be major sources of reactive nitrogen in suburban watersheds, have more complex coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics than previously thought, and are likely the site of much nitrogen retention. Riparian zones, thought to be an important sink for reactive nitrogen in many watersheds, have turned out be nitrogen sources in urban watersheds due to hydrologic changes that disconnect streams from their surrounding landscape. Urban effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and nitrogen deposition have strong effects on soil nitrogen cycling processes and soil:atmosphere fluxes of nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane. Efforts to manage urban soils and watersheds through geomorphic stream restoration, creation of stormwater management features and changes in lawn and forest management can have significant effects on watershed carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Urban soils present a basic and applied science frontier that challenges our understanding of biological, physical, chemical and social science processes. The watershed approach provides an effective platform for integrating these disciplines and for articulating critical questions that arise from surprising results. This approach can help us to meet the challenge of urban soils, which is critical to achieving sustainability goals in cities across the world.

  12. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data. PMID:26776199

  13. Physical Attractiveness and Courtship

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silverman, Irwin

    1971-01-01

    This study shows a high and disquieting degree of similarity in physical attractiveness between dating partners, and suggests also that more similar partners tend to form stronger romantic attachments. (Author)

  14. Adolescent attraction to cults.

    PubMed

    Hunter, E

    1998-01-01

    This article details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. It is recommended that parents, teachers, and counselors familiarize themselves with the warning signs. Suggestions are offered on how to make adolescents less vulnerable to cult overtures. PMID:9831888

  15. Attracting Water Drops

    NASA Video Gallery

    Astronauts Cady Coleman and Ron Garan perform the Attracting Water Drops experiment from Chabad Hebrew Academy in San Diego, Calif. This research determines if a free-floating water drop can be att...

  16. Attention Alters Perceived Attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Störmer, Viola S; Alvarez, George A

    2016-04-01

    Can attention alter the impression of a face? Previous studies showed that attention modulates the appearance of lower-level visual features. For instance, attention can make a simple stimulus appear to have higher contrast than it actually does. We tested whether attention can also alter the perception of a higher-order property-namely, facial attractiveness. We asked participants to judge the relative attractiveness of two faces after summoning their attention to one of the faces using a briefly presented visual cue. Across trials, participants judged the attended face to be more attractive than the same face when it was unattended. This effect was not due to decision or response biases, but rather was due to changes in perceptual processing of the faces. These results show that attention alters perceived facial attractiveness, and broadly demonstrate that attention can influence higher-level perception and may affect people's initial impressions of one another. PMID:26966228

  17. The conceptualization model problem—surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bredehoeft, John

    2005-03-01

    The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

  18. Surprises in low-dimensional correlated systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Hsiu-Hau

    In this thesis, correlation effects in low-dimensional systems were studied. In particular, we focus on two systems: a point-contact in the quantum-Hall regime under the influence of ac drive and quasi-one-dimensional ladder materials with generic interactions in weak coupling. Powerful techniques, including renormalization group, quantum field theory, operator product expansions, bosonization,...etc., were employed to extract surprising physics out of these strongly fluctuating systems. We first study the effect of an ac drive on the current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of a tunnel junction between two fractional Quantum Hall fluids at filling nu-1 an odd integer. In a semi-classical limit, the tunneling current exhibits mode-locking, which corresponds to plateaus in the I-V curve at integer multiples of I = ef , with f the ac drive frequency. However, the full quantum model exhibits rounded plateaus centered around the quantized current values due to quantum fluctuations. The locations of these plateaus can serve as an indirect hint of fractional charges. Switching attentions to quasi-one-dimensional coupled-chain systems, we present a systematic weak-coupling renormalization group (RG) technique and find that generally broad regions of the phase space of the ladder materials are unstable to pairing, usually with approximate d-wave symmetry. The dimensional crossovers from 1D to 2D were also discussed. Carbon nanotubes as possible candidates that display such unconventional pairing and interesting physics in weak coupling were discussed. Quite surprisingly, a hidden symmetry was found in the weakly-coupled two-leg ladder. A perturbative renormalization group analysis reveals that at half-filling the model scales onto an exactly soluble SO(8) symmetric Gross-Neveu model. Integrability of the Gross-Neveu model is employed to extract the exact energies, degeneracies and quantum numbers of all the low energy excited states, which fall into degenerate SO(8

  19. ISS GN and C - First Year Surprises

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Begley, Michael

    2002-01-01

    Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) began in late 1998 with the joining of the first two US and Russ ian elements. For more than two years, the outpost was served by two Russian Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) systems. The station requires orbital translation and attitude control functions for its 100+ configurations, from the nascent two-module station to the half million kilogram completed station owned and operated by seventeen nations. With the launch of the US Laboratory module in February 2001, the integration of the US GN&C system with its Russian counterpart laid the foundation for such a robust system. In its first year of combined operation, the ISS GN&C system has performed admirably, even better than many expected, but there have been surprises. Loss of command capability, loss of communication between segments, a control system force-fight, and "non-propulsive vents" that weren't - such events have repeatedly underscored the importance of thorough program integration, testing, and operation, both across subsystem boundaries and across international borders.

  20. Long-term evolution is surprisingly predictable in lattice proteins

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, Michael E.; Moudgil, Arnav; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2013-01-01

    It has long been debated whether natural selection acts primarily upon individual organisms, or whether it also commonly acts upon higher-level entities such as lineages. Two arguments against the effectiveness of long-term selection on lineages have been (i) that long-term evolutionary outcomes will not be sufficiently predictable to support a meaningful long-term fitness and (ii) that short-term selection on organisms will almost always overpower long-term selection. Here, we use a computational model of protein folding and binding called ‘lattice proteins’. We quantify the long-term evolutionary success of lineages with two metrics called the k-fitness and k-survivability. We show that long-term outcomes are surprisingly predictable in this model: only a small fraction of the possible outcomes are ever realized in multiple replicates. Furthermore, the long-term fitness of a lineage depends only partly on its short-term fitness; other factors are also important, including the ‘evolvability’ of a lineage—its capacity to produce adaptive variation. In a system with a distinct short-term and long-term fitness, evolution need not be ‘short-sighted’: lineages may be selected for their long-term properties, sometimes in opposition to short-term selection. Similar evolutionary basins of attraction have been observed in vivo, suggesting that natural biological lineages will also have a predictive long-term fitness. PMID:23466559

  1. Practical Bayesian tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  2. Setting Up Surprises: Should We or Shouldn't We?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Back, Jenni

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the advantages and the disadvantages of using surprise elements in teaching mathematics. According to the author, there are three key ideas concerning the element of surprise: (1) The ethical aspects of teachers' manipulation of their students in order to construct surprise; (2) Every mathematical task…

  3. Bayesian inference in physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Toussaint, Udo

    2011-07-01

    Bayesian inference provides a consistent method for the extraction of information from physics experiments even in ill-conditioned circumstances. The approach provides a unified rationale for data analysis, which both justifies many of the commonly used analysis procedures and reveals some of the implicit underlying assumptions. This review summarizes the general ideas of the Bayesian probability theory with emphasis on the application to the evaluation of experimental data. As case studies for Bayesian parameter estimation techniques examples ranging from extra-solar planet detection to the deconvolution of the apparatus functions for improving the energy resolution and change point estimation in time series are discussed. Special attention is paid to the numerical techniques suited for Bayesian analysis, with a focus on recent developments of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for high-dimensional integration problems. Bayesian model comparison, the quantitative ranking of models for the explanation of a given data set, is illustrated with examples collected from cosmology, mass spectroscopy, and surface physics, covering problems such as background subtraction and automated outlier detection. Additionally the Bayesian inference techniques for the design and optimization of future experiments are introduced. Experiments, instead of being merely passive recording devices, can now be designed to adapt to measured data and to change the measurement strategy on the fly to maximize the information of an experiment. The applied key concepts and necessary numerical tools which provide the means of designing such inference chains and the crucial aspects of data fusion are summarized and some of the expected implications are highlighted.

  4. Attracting girls to physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borg, Anne; Sui, Manling

    2013-03-01

    Large regional differences remain in the number of girls studying physics and the number of female physicists in academic positions. While many countries struggle with attracting female students to university studies in physics, climbing the academic ladder is the main challenge for these women. Furthermore, for many female physicists the working climate is not very supportive. The workshop Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the 4th IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, South Africa 2011, addressed attitudes among education-seeking teenagers and approaches for attracting young girls to physics through successful recruitment plans, including highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications. The current paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from this workshop.

  5. Mining for Surprise Events within Text Streams

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Engel, David W.; Cramer, Nicholas O.

    2009-04-30

    This paper summarizes algorithms and analysis methodology for mining the evolving content in text streams. Text streams include news, press releases from organizations, speeches, Internet blogs, etc. These data are a fundamental source for detecting and characterizing strategic intent of individuals and organizations as well as for detecting abrupt or surprising events within communities. Specifically, an analyst may need to know if and when the topic within a text stream changes. Much of the current text feature methodology is focused on understanding and analyzing a single static collection of text documents. Corresponding analytic activities include summarizing the contents of the collection, grouping the documents based on similarity of content, and calculating concise summaries of the resulting groups. The approach reported here focuses on taking advantage of the temporal characteristics in a text stream to identify relevant features (such as change in content), and also on the analysis and algorithmic methodology to communicate these characteristics to a user. We present a variety of algorithms for detecting essential features within a text stream. A critical finding is that the characteristics used to identify features in a text stream are uncorrelated with the characteristics used to identify features in a static document collection. Our approach for communicating the information back to the user is to identify feature (word/phrase) groups. These resulting algorithms form the basis of developing software tools for a user to analyze and understand the content of text streams. We present analysis using both news information and abstracts from technical articles, and show how these algorithms provide understanding of the contents of these text streams.

  6. Surprising decline in Iran's growth rates.

    PubMed

    Roudi, F

    1997-11-01

    According to Iran's 1996 census, the country's population was 60 million, about 6-7 million people fewer than estimates used by the UN and other international organizations. These findings surprised Iranian demographers and have been examined with skepticism outside of the country. However, if Iran's 1986 and 1996 censuses are comparable and children were not undercounted, these results indicate a remarkable decline in fertility. The proportion of Iran's population under age 5 years fell from 18% in 1986 to 10% in 1996. An Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, study published in 1996 estimated that Iran's total fertility rate (TFR) fell from an average of 6.2 children/woman in 1986 to 3.5 in 1993. However, based upon analyses of sample surveys, the Iranian government's health ministry reported that the TFR dropped from 5.0 in 1991 to 3.3 in 1995. Irrespective of questions over the magnitude of Iran's fertility decline, it is clear that the Iranian government is committed to limiting population growth. The UN Population Fund considers Iran's family planning program to be one of the world's best-functioning, with the Ministry of Health Care and Medical Education providing free contraceptives. A bill was passed in 1993 which penalizes couples who have more than 3 children and posters around the country encourage the one- or two-child family. Iran's family planning program is integrated into the national primary health care system and provides a broad range of reproductive health services to women. The program is also the only one in the region which promotes both male and female sterilization. PMID:12321257

  7. Attracting Girls to Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandow, Barbara; Marks, Ann; Borg, Anne

    2009-04-01

    In most countries the number of girls studying physics, as well female physicists in academic positions, is still low. Active recruitment at all levels is essential to change this situation. In some countries a large proportion of students are female, but career progression is difficult. Highlighting the broad spectrum of career opportunities for those with physics qualifications is a major approach in attracting girls to physics. This paper presents findings, examples of best practices, and recommendations resulting from the workshop, Attracting Girls to Physics, organized as part of the Third IUPAP International Conference on Women in Physics, Seoul, 2008.

  8. Attractive characteristics of mirrors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, R. F.; Ryutov, D. D.

    1994-12-01

    A summary of the attractive characteristics of mirror devices is presented. Recent progress in development of axisymmetric mirror devices is described. Potentialities of mirrors as a basis for D(3)He fusion power generators and high-flux neutron sources for fusion material tests are discussed.

  9. Adolescent Attraction to Cults.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Eagan

    1998-01-01

    Details the reasons behind adolescents' attraction to cults. and distinguishes functions of cults and the term "cult." Identifies various cults, and describes the process of involvement. Notes that in the absence of authentic, stabilizing standards, some youth are especially vulnerable. Provides recommendations for adults working with adolescents.…

  10. Correlates of Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prisbell, Marshall

    A study assessed the relationship of the independent variables of interpersonal attraction to the dependent variables of feeling good, relational safety, and uncertainty level. Subjects were 75 elementary and secondary school teachers, 61 communication students, 18 child development professionals, and 8 service club members. Each subject completed…

  11. Science Can Be Attractive.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leyden, Michael B.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses the properties of neodymium magnets and magnets in general and how magnets can be used to teach students important scientific principles, such as attraction, repulsion, and polarity; the role of magnetic forces in electronic communications and computers; the magnetic properties of the earth and compasses; and the relationship between…

  12. A Shocking Surprise in Stephan's Quintet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    surprised not only by the turbulence of the gas, but by the incredible strength of the emission. The reason the molecular hydrogen emission is so powerful is not yet completely understood.

    Stephan's Quintet is located 300 million light-years away in the Pegasus constellation.

    This image is composed of three data sets: near-infrared light (blue) and visible light called H-alpha (green) from the Calar Alto Observatory in Spain, operated by the Max Planck Institute in Germany; and 8-micron infrared light (red) from Spitzer's infrared array camera.

  13. Dissociating Averageness and Attractiveness: Attractive Faces Are Not Always Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBruine, Lisa M.; Jones, Benedict C.; Unger, Layla; Little, Anthony C.; Feinberg, David R.

    2007-01-01

    Although the averageness hypothesis of facial attractiveness proposes that the attractiveness of faces is mostly a consequence of their averageness, 1 study has shown that caricaturing highly attractive faces makes them mathematically less average but more attractive. Here the authors systematically test the averageness hypothesis in 5 experiments…

  14. Interocular conflict attracts attention.

    PubMed

    Paffen, Chris L E; Hessels, Roy S; Van der Stigchel, Stefan

    2012-02-01

    During binocular rivalry, perception alternates.between dissimilar images presented dichoptically. Since.its discovery, researchers have debated whether the phenomenon is subject to attentional control. While it is now clear that attentional control over binocular rivalry is possible, the opposite is less evident: Is interocular conflict (i.e., the situation leading to binocular rivalry) able to attract attention?In order to answer this question, we used a change blindness paradigm in which observers looked for salient changes in two alternating frames depicting natural scenes. Each frame contained two images: one for the left and one for the right eye. Changes occurring in a single image (monocular) were detected faster than those occurring in both images (binocular). In addition,monocular change detection was also faster than detection in fused versions of the changed and unchanged regions. These results show that interocular conflict is capable of attracting attention, since it guides visual attention toward salient changes that otherwise would remain unnoticed for longer. The results of a second experiment indicated that interocular conflict attracts attention during the first phase of presentation, a phase during which the stimulus is abnormally fused [added]. PMID:22167536

  15. BIE: Bayesian Inference Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, Martin D.

    2013-12-01

    The Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) is an object-oriented library of tools written in C++ designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. To facilitate "what if" exploration, BIE provides a command line interface (written with Bison and Flex) to run input scripts. The output of the code is a simulation of the Bayesian posterior distribution from which summary statistics e.g. by taking moments, or determine confidence intervals and so forth, can be determined. All of these quantities are fundamentally integrals and the Markov Chain approach produces variates heta distributed according to P( heta|D) so moments are trivially obtained by summing of the ensemble of variates.

  16. Bayesian least squares deconvolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.

    2015-11-01

    Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

  17. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  18. Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2008-04-01

    Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward

  19. Old Star's "Rebirth" Gives Astronomers Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2005-04-01

    Astronomers using the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope are taking advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to watch an old star suddenly stir back into new activity after coming to the end of its normal life. Their surprising results have forced them to change their ideas of how such an old, white dwarf star can re-ignite its nuclear furnace for one final blast of energy. Sakurai's Object Radio/Optical Images of Sakurai's Object: Color image shows nebula ejected thousands of years ago. Contours indicate radio emission. Inset is Hubble Space Telescope image, with contours indicating radio emission; this inset shows just the central part of the region. CREDIT: Hajduk et al., NRAO/AUI/NSF, ESO, StSci, NASA Computer simulations had predicted a series of events that would follow such a re-ignition of fusion reactions, but the star didn't follow the script -- events moved 100 times more quickly than the simulations predicted. "We've now produced a new theoretical model of how this process works, and the VLA observations have provided the first evidence supporting our new model," said Albert Zijlstra, of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. Zijlstra and his colleagues presented their findings in the April 8 issue of the journal Science. The astronomers studied a star known as V4334 Sgr, in the constellation Sagittarius. It is better known as "Sakurai's Object," after Japanese amateur astronomer Yukio Sakurai, who discovered it on February 20, 1996, when it suddenly burst into new brightness. At first, astronomers thought the outburst was a common nova explosion, but further study showed that Sakurai's Object was anything but common. The star is an old white dwarf that had run out of hydrogen fuel for nuclear fusion reactions in its core. Astronomers believe that some such stars can undergo a final burst of fusion in a shell of helium that surrounds a core of heavier nuclei such as carbon and oxygen. However, the

  20. Oldest Known Objects May Be Surprisingly Immature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2008-04-01

    Some of the oldest objects in the Universe may still have a long way to go, according to a new study using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. These new results indicate that globular clusters might be surprisingly less mature in their development than previously thought. Globular clusters, dense bunches of up to millions of stars found in all galaxies, are among the oldest known objects in the Universe, with most estimates of their ages ranging from 9 to 13 billions of years old. As such they contain some of the first stars to form in a galaxy and understanding their evolution is critical to understanding the evolution of galaxies. Animation The Evolution of a Globular Cluster "For many years, globular clusters have been used as wonderful natural laboratories to study the evolution and interaction of stars," said John Fregeau of Northwestern University, who conducted the study. "So, it’s exciting to discover something that may be new and fundamental about the way they evolve." Conventional wisdom is that globular clusters pass through three phases of evolution or development of their structure, corresponding to adolescence, middle age, and old age. These "ages" refer to the evolutionary state of the cluster, not the physical ages of the individual stars. People Who Read This Also Read... Milky Way's Super-efficient Particle Accelerators Caught in The Act Discovery of Most Recent Supernova in Our Galaxy Action Replay of Powerful Stellar Explosion Jet Power and Black Hole Assortment Revealed in New Chandra Image In the adolescent phase, the stars near the center of the cluster collapse inward. Middle age refers to a phase when the interactions of double stars near the center of the cluster prevents it from further collapse. Finally, old age describes when binaries in the center of the cluster are disrupted or ejected, and the center of the cluster collapses inwards. For years, it has been thought that most globular clusters are middle- aged with a few being toward

  1. Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise.

    PubMed

    Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

    2015-01-01

    The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes. PMID:25762956

  2. Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise

    PubMed Central

    Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

    2015-01-01

    The emotion of surprise entails a complex of immediate responses, such as cognitive interruption, attention allocation to, and more systematic processing of the surprising stimulus. All these processes serve the ultimate function to increase processing depth and thus cognitively master the surprising stimulus. The present account introduces phasic negative affect as the underlying mechanism responsible for this switch in operating mode. Surprising stimuli are schema-discrepant and thus entail cognitive disfluency, which elicits immediate negative affect. This affect in turn works like a phasic cognitive tuning switching the current processing mode from more automatic and heuristic to more systematic and reflective processing. Directly testing the initial elicitation of negative affect by surprising events, the present experiment presented high and low surprising neutral trivia statements to N = 28 participants while assessing their spontaneous facial expressions via facial electromyography. High compared to low surprising trivia elicited higher corrugator activity, indicative of negative affect and mental effort, while leaving zygomaticus (positive affect) and frontalis (cultural surprise expression) activity unaffected. Future research shall investigate the mediating role of negative affect in eliciting surprise-related outcomes. PMID:25762956

  3. Are Brazil Nuts Attractive?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Duncan A.; Swift, Michael R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.

    2004-11-01

    We present event-driven simulation results for single and multiple intruders in a vertically vibrated granular bed. Under our vibratory conditions, the mean vertical position of a single intruder is governed primarily by a buoyancylike effect. Multiple intruders also exhibit buoyancy governed behavior; however, multiple neutrally buoyant intruders cluster spontaneously and undergo horizontal segregation. These effects can be understood by considering the dynamics of two neutrally buoyant intruders. We have measured an attractive force between such intruders which has a range of five intruder diameters, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for the origins of this force.

  4. The Orion Nebula: Still Full of Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2011-01-01

    shows the glowing hydrogen gas, were coloured red. Light in the yellow-green part of the spectrum is coloured green, blue light is coloured blue and light that passed through an ultraviolet filter has been coloured purple. The exposure times were about 52 minutes through each filter. This image was processed by ESO using the observational data found by Igor Chekalin (Russia) [1], who participated in ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition [2], organised by ESO in October-November 2010, for everyone who enjoys making beautiful images of the night sky using real astronomical data. Notes [1] Igor searched through ESO's archive and identified datasets that he used to compose his image of Messier 42, which was the seventh highest ranked entry in the competition, out of almost 100 entries. His original work can be seen here. Igor Chekalin was awarded the first prize of the competition for his composition of Messier 78, and he also submitted an image of NGC3169, NGC3166 and SN 2003cg, which was ranked second highest. [2] ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search through ESO's vast archives of astronomical data, hoping to find a well-hidden gem that needed polishing by the entrants. Participants submitted nearly 100 entries and ten skilled people were awarded some extremely attractive prizes, including an all expenses paid trip for the overall winner to ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) on Cerro Paranal, in Chile, the world's most advanced optical telescope. The ten winners submitted a total of 20 images that were ranked as the highest entries in the competition out of the near 100 images. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal

  5. The Orion Nebula: Still Full of Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2011-01-01

    shows the glowing hydrogen gas, were coloured red. Light in the yellow-green part of the spectrum is coloured green, blue light is coloured blue and light that passed through an ultraviolet filter has been coloured purple. The exposure times were about 52 minutes through each filter. This image was processed by ESO using the observational data found by Igor Chekalin (Russia) [1], who participated in ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition [2], organised by ESO in October-November 2010, for everyone who enjoys making beautiful images of the night sky using real astronomical data. Notes [1] Igor searched through ESO's archive and identified datasets that he used to compose his image of Messier 42, which was the seventh highest ranked entry in the competition, out of almost 100 entries. His original work can be seen here. Igor Chekalin was awarded the first prize of the competition for his composition of Messier 78, and he also submitted an image of NGC3169, NGC3166 and SN 2003cg, which was ranked second highest. [2] ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search through ESO's vast archives of astronomical data, hoping to find a well-hidden gem that needed polishing by the entrants. Participants submitted nearly 100 entries and ten skilled people were awarded some extremely attractive prizes, including an all expenses paid trip for the overall winner to ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) on Cerro Paranal, in Chile, the world's most advanced optical telescope. The ten winners submitted a total of 20 images that were ranked as the highest entries in the competition out of the near 100 images. More information ESO, the European Southern Observatory, is the foremost intergovernmental astronomy organisation in Europe and the world's most productive astronomical observatory. It is supported by 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal

  6. Spectral Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falakmasir, Mohammad; Yudelson, Michael; Ritter, Steve; Koedinger, Ken

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…

  7. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loredo, Thomas J.

    2004-04-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.

  8. Bayesian Threshold Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustafson, S. C.; Costello, C. S.; Like, E. C.; Pierce, S. J.; Shenoy, K. N.

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian estimation of a threshold time (hereafter simply threshold) for the receipt of impulse signals is accomplished given the following: 1) data, consisting of the number of impulses received in a time interval from zero to one and the time of the largest time impulse; 2) a model, consisting of a uniform probability density of impulse time…

  9. A structured approach to Bayesian data fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Y. N.; Chen, J.; Hubbard, S.; Kowalsky, M. B.; Woodbury, A.

    2002-12-01

    Stochastic formulations of the inverse problem proved to be a powerful tool for data fusion. Bayesian-based methods are particularly attractive due to their generality and structure. A Bayesian method requires defining a prior pdf for the model parameters and a likelihood function to relate between model parameters and observations. A systematic approach for defining these two functions is needed, which departs from the customary, almost-by-default choice of normal-based models. This talk gives an overview of recent trends in Bayesian model construction. The first part of the talk focuses on identifying a prior using the information-based approach of Woodbury and Ulrych, with an application to the Cape Cod large scale tracer transport field experiment. Here we show how the tracer data can augment direct measurements of the hydraulic conductivity. In the second part, we focus on the likelihood function, and present two different concepts. The first concept defines a non-stationary, multivariate normal likelihood function, and the second employs neural networks and identifies a non-normal likelihood function. Both concepts are employed to fuse geophysical data with conventional well logs.

  10. Like Charges Attract?

    PubMed

    Zhao, Tianshan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Qian; Jena, Puru

    2016-07-21

    Using multiscale first-principles calculations, we show that two interacting negatively charged B12I9(-) monoanions not only attract, in defiance of the Coulomb's law, but also the energy barrier at 400 K is small enough that these two moieties combine to form a stable B24I18(2-) moiety. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations further confirm its stability up to 1500 K. Studies of other B12X9(-) (X = Br, Cl, F, H, Au, CN) show that while all of these B24X18(2-) moieties are stable against dissociation, the energy barrier, with the exception of B24Au18(2-), is large so as to hinder their experimental observation. Our results explain the recent experimental observation of the "spontaneous" formation of B24I18(2-) in an ion trap. A simple model based upon electrostatics shows that this unusual behavior is due to competition between the attractive dipole-dipole interaction caused by the aspherical shape of the particle and the repulsive interaction between the like charges. PMID:27351125

  11. Surprise and Sense Making: Undergraduate Placement Experiences in SMEs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walmsley, Andreas; Thomas, Rhodri; Jameson, Stephanie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper seeks to explore undergraduate placement experiences in tourism and hospitality SMEs, focusing on the notions of surprise and sense making. It aims to argue that surprises and sense making are important elements not only of the adjustment process when entering new work environments, but also of the learning experience that…

  12. Surprise in Schools: Martin Buber and Dialogic Schooling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stern, Julian

    2013-01-01

    The philosopher Martin Buber described the central role of surprise in education. Surprise is not an alternative to planning and order in schools, and it is not even an alternative to repetitive practice. It is, instead, that which must be allowed to occur in any dialogic encounter. Schooling that is creative and filled with hope will also be…

  13. Neural mechanism of unconscious perception of surprised facial expression.

    PubMed

    Duan, Xujun; Dai, Qian; Gong, Qiyong; Chen, Huafu

    2010-08-01

    Previous functional neuroimaging studies have uncovered partly separable neural substrates for perceiving different facial expressions presented below the level of conscious awareness. However, as one of the six basic emotions, the neural mechanism of unconsciously perceiving surprised faces has not yet been investigated. Using a backward masking procedure, we studied the neural activities in response to surprised faces presented below the threshold of conscious visual perception by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Eighteen healthy adults were scanned while viewing surprised faces, which presented for 33 ms and immediately "masked" by a neutral face for 467 ms. As a control, they viewed masked happy or neutral faces as well. In comparison to both control conditions, masked surprised faces yielded significantly greater activation in the parahippocampal gyrus and fusiform gyrus, which associated previously with novelty detection. In the present study, automatic activation of these areas to masked surprised faces was investigated as a function of individual differences in the ability of identifying and differentiating one's emotions, as assessed by the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). The correlation results showed that, the subscale, Difficulty Identifying Feelings, was negatively correlated with the neural response of these areas to masked surprised faces, which suggest that decreased activation magnitude in specific brain regions may reflect increased difficulties in recognizing one's emotions in everyday life. Additionally, we confirmed activation of the right amygdala and right thalamus to the masked surprised faces, which was previously proved to be involved in the unconscious emotional perception system. PMID:20398771

  14. Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

    PubMed

    Doak, Daniel F; Estes, James A; Halpern, Benjamin S; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, David R; Lovvorn, James; Monson, Daniel H; Tinker, M Timothy; Williams, Terrie M; Wootton, J Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

    2008-04-01

    Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches. PMID:18481520

  15. Physical attractiveness and personality development.

    PubMed

    Shea, J; Crossman, S M; Adams, G R

    1978-05-01

    A test of the relationship between physical attractiveness and ego development was completed through an interview study of 294 men and women college students. Ss responded to personality measures assessing identity formation, locus of control, and ego functioning and were rated on facial attractiveness and body form scales. Contrary to the physical attractiveness stereotype, attractive and unattractive Ss did not differ in their personality styles. PMID:650605

  16. Bayesian Magic in Asteroseismology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kallinger, T.

    2015-09-01

    Only a few years ago asteroseismic observations were so rare that scientists had plenty of time to work on individual data sets. They could tune their algorithms in any possible way to squeeze out the last bit of information. Nowadays this is impossible. With missions like MOST, CoRoT, and Kepler we basically drown in new data every day. To handle this in a sufficient way statistical methods become more and more important. This is why Bayesian techniques started their triumph march across asteroseismology. I will go with you on a journey through Bayesian Magic Land, that brings us to the sea of granulation background, the forest of peakbagging, and the stony alley of model comparison.

  17. Perceived Attractiveness and Classroom Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algozzine, Bob

    1977-01-01

    Adams and Cohen (1974) demonstrated that facial attractiveness was a salient factor in differential student-teacher interactions. This research investigates further the interaction between teachers and children perceived to be attractive or unattractive by those teachers. It was hypothesized that attractive children would exhibit more "positive,"…

  18. Efficient Bayesian Phase Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, Nathan; Granade, Chris

    2016-07-01

    We introduce a new method called rejection filtering that we use to perform adaptive Bayesian phase estimation. Our approach has several advantages: it is classically efficient, easy to implement, achieves Heisenberg limited scaling, resists depolarizing noise, tracks time-dependent eigenstates, recovers from failures, and can be run on a field programmable gate array. It also outperforms existing iterative phase estimation algorithms such as Kitaev's method.

  19. Efficient Bayesian Phase Estimation.

    PubMed

    Wiebe, Nathan; Granade, Chris

    2016-07-01

    We introduce a new method called rejection filtering that we use to perform adaptive Bayesian phase estimation. Our approach has several advantages: it is classically efficient, easy to implement, achieves Heisenberg limited scaling, resists depolarizing noise, tracks time-dependent eigenstates, recovers from failures, and can be run on a field programmable gate array. It also outperforms existing iterative phase estimation algorithms such as Kitaev's method. PMID:27419551

  20. Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

    PubMed

    Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

    2013-10-01

    Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. PMID:23665468

  1. Bayesian Attractor Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiegerinck, Wim; Schoenaker, Christiaan; Duane, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Recently, methods for model fusion by dynamically combining model components in an interactive ensemble have been proposed. In these proposals, fusion parameters have to be learned from data. One can view these systems as parametrized dynamical systems. We address the question of learnability of dynamical systems with respect to both short term (vector field) and long term (attractor) behavior. In particular we are interested in learning in the imperfect model class setting, in which the ground truth has a higher complexity than the models, e.g. due to unresolved scales. We take a Bayesian point of view and we define a joint log-likelihood that consists of two terms, one is the vector field error and the other is the attractor error, for which we take the L1 distance between the stationary distributions of the model and the assumed ground truth. In the context of linear models (like so-called weighted supermodels), and assuming a Gaussian error model in the vector fields, vector field learning leads to a tractable Gaussian solution. This solution can then be used as a prior for the next step, Bayesian attractor learning, in which the attractor error is used as a log-likelihood term. Bayesian attractor learning is implemented by elliptical slice sampling, a sampling method for systems with a Gaussian prior and a non Gaussian likelihood. Simulations with a partially observed driven Lorenz 63 system illustrate the approach.

  2. Attracting Girls Into Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosny, Hala M.; Kahil, Heba M.

    2005-10-01

    From our national statistics, it is evident that in the population of physicists there are considerably fewer women than men. Our role is to attract girls to physics and thus decrease this gap. The institutional structure in Egypt provides an equal opportunity for girls to study sciences, including physics. It is reckoned that girls refrain from studying physics due to a group of social and economic factors. We will discuss teaching physics at schools and present some ideas to develop it. The media should play a role in placing female physicists in the spotlight. Unfortunately, careers that require intellectual skills are considered men's careers. This necessitates that society changes the way it sees women and trusts more in their skills and talents. We therefore call for the cooperation of governmental and nongovernmental bodies, together with universities and the production sectors involved. This will ultimately lead to enhancing the entrepreneurial projects related to physics and technology on the one hand, and will encourage girls to find challenging opportunities on the other.

  3. Chemistry of sex attraction.

    PubMed Central

    Roelofs, W L

    1995-01-01

    The chemical communication system used to attract mates involves not only the overt chemical signals but also indirectly a great deal of chemistry in the emitter and receiver. As an example, in emitting female moths, this includes enzymes (and cofactors, mRNA, genes) of the pheromone biosynthetic pathways, hormones (and genes) involved in controlling pheromone production, receptors and second messengers for the hormones, and host plant cues that control release of the hormone. In receiving male moths, this includes the chemistry of pheromone transportation in antennal olfactory hairs (binding proteins and sensillar esterases) and the chemistry of signal transduction, which includes specific dendritic pheromone receptors and a rapid inositol triphosphate second messenger signal. A fluctuating plume structure is an integral part of the signal since the antennal receptors need intermittent stimulation to sustain upwind flight. Input from the hundreds of thousands of sensory cells is processed and integrated with other modalities in the central nervous system, but many unknown factors modulate the information before it is fed to motor neurons for behavioral responses. An unknown brain control center for pheromone perception is discussed relative to data from behavioral-threshold studies showing modulation by biogenic amines, such as octopamine and serotonin, from genetic studies on pheromone discrimination, and from behavioral and electrophysiological studies with behavioral antagonists. Images Fig. 1 PMID:7816846

  4. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  5. Information geometry of Bayesian statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuzoe, Hiroshi

    2015-01-01

    A survey of geometry of Bayesian statistics is given. From the viewpoint of differential geometry, a prior distribution in Bayesian statistics is regarded as a volume element on a statistical model. In this paper, properties of Bayesian estimators are studied by applying equiaffine structures of statistical manifolds. In addition, geometry of anomalous statistics is also studied. Deformed expectations and deformed independeces are important in anomalous statistics. After summarizing geometry of such deformed structues, a generalization of maximum likelihood method is given. A suitable weight on a parameter space is important in Bayesian statistics, whereas a suitable weight on a sample space is important in anomalous statistics.

  6. Making vasectomy attractive.

    PubMed

    Herndon, N

    1992-08-01

    In 1989, Pro-Pater, a private, nonprofit family planning organization in Brazil, used attractive ads with the message Vasectomy, An Act of Love to promote vasectomy. The number of vasectomies performed/day at Pro-Pater clinics increased from 11 to 20 during the publicity campaign and fell after the ads stopped but continued at higher levels. Word of mouth communication among friends, neighbors, and relatives who had vasectomies maintained these high levels. This type of communication reduced the fear that often involves vasectomies because men hear from men they know and trust that vasectomies are harmless and do not deprive them of potency. In Sao Paulo, the percentage of men familiar with vasectomies and how they are performed increased after the campaign, but in Salvador, knowledge did not increase even though the number of vasectomies in Pro-Pater clinics increased. Organizations in Colombia and Guatemala have also been effective in educating men about vasectomies. These successes were especially relevant in Latin American where machismo has been an obstacle of family planning programs. The no-scalpel technique 1st introduced in China in 1974 reduces the fear of vasectomy and has fewer complications than the conventional technique. Further trained physicians can perform the no-scalpel technique in about 10 minutes compared with 15 minutes for the conventional technique. In 1987 during a 1-day festival in Thailand, physicians averaged 57 no-scalpel vasectomies/day compared with only 33 for conventional vasectomies. This technique has not spread to Guatemala, Brazil, Colombia, the US, and some countries in Asia and Africa. Extensive research does not indicate that vasectomy has an increased risk of testicular cancer, prostate cancer, and myocardial infarction. Physicians are working on ways to improve vasectomy. PMID:12317726

  7. Beyond initial attraction: physical attractiveness in newlywed marriage.

    PubMed

    McNulty, James K; Neff, Lisa A; Karney, Benjamin R

    2008-02-01

    Physical appearance plays a crucial role in shaping new relationships, but does it continue to affect established relationships, such as marriage? In the current study, the authors examined how observer ratings of each spouse's facial attractiveness and the difference between those ratings were associated with (a) observations of social support behavior and (b) reports of marital satisfaction. In contrast to the robust and almost universally positive effects of levels of attractiveness on new relationships, the only association between levels of attractiveness and the outcomes of these marriages was that attractive husbands were less satisfied. Further, in contrast to the importance of matched attractiveness to new relationships, similarity in attractiveness was unrelated to spouses' satisfaction and behavior. Instead, the relative difference between partners' levels of attractiveness appeared to be most important in predicting marital behavior, such that both spouses behaved more positively in relationships in which wives were more attractive than their husbands, but they behaved more negatively in relationships in which husbands were more attractive than their wives. These results highlight the importance of dyadic examinations of the effects of spouses' qualities on their marriages. PMID:18266540

  8. Using Bayesian analysis in repeated preclinical in vivo studies for a more effective use of animals.

    PubMed

    Walley, Rosalind; Sherington, John; Rastrick, Joe; Detrait, Eric; Hanon, Etienne; Watt, Gillian

    2016-05-01

    Whilst innovative Bayesian approaches are increasingly used in clinical studies, in the preclinical area Bayesian methods appear to be rarely used in the reporting of pharmacology data. This is particularly surprising in the context of regularly repeated in vivo studies where there is a considerable amount of data from historical control groups, which has potential value. This paper describes our experience with introducing Bayesian analysis for such studies using a Bayesian meta-analytic predictive approach. This leads naturally either to an informative prior for a control group as part of a full Bayesian analysis of the next study or using a predictive distribution to replace a control group entirely. We use quality control charts to illustrate study-to-study variation to the scientists and describe informative priors in terms of their approximate effective numbers of animals. We describe two case studies of animal models: the lipopolysaccharide-induced cytokine release model used in inflammation and the novel object recognition model used to screen cognitive enhancers, both of which show the advantage of a Bayesian approach over the standard frequentist analysis. We conclude that using Bayesian methods in stable repeated in vivo studies can result in a more effective use of animals, either by reducing the total number of animals used or by increasing the precision of key treatment differences. This will lead to clearer results and supports the "3Rs initiative" to Refine, Reduce and Replace animals in research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27028721

  9. Bayesian Integrated Microbial Forensics

    SciTech Connect

    Jarman, Kristin H.; Kreuzer-Martin, Helen W.; Wunschel, David S.; Valentine, Nancy B.; Cliff, John B.; Petersen, Catherine E.; Colburn, Heather A.; Wahl, Karen L.

    2008-06-01

    In the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax letters, researchers have been exploring ways to predict the production environment of unknown source microorganisms. Different mass spectral techniques are being developed to characterize components of a microbe’s culture medium including water, carbon and nitrogen sources, metal ions added, and the presence of agar. Individually, each technique has the potential to identify one or two ingredients in a culture medium recipe. However, by integrating data from multiple mass spectral techniques, a more complete characterization is possible. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to integrated microbial forensics and illustrate its application on spores grown in different culture media.

  10. Computationally efficient Bayesian tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aughenbaugh, Jason; La Cour, Brian

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we describe the progress we have achieved in developing a computationally efficient, grid-based Bayesian fusion tracking system. In our approach, the probability surface is represented by a collection of multidimensional polynomials, each computed adaptively on a grid of cells representing state space. Time evolution is performed using a hybrid particle/grid approach and knowledge of the grid structure, while sensor updates use a measurement-based sampling method with a Delaunay triangulation. We present an application of this system to the problem of tracking a submarine target using a field of active and passive sonar buoys.

  11. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  12. Bayesian Approach for Inconsistent Information

    PubMed Central

    Stein, M.; Beer, M.; Kreinovich, V.

    2013-01-01

    In engineering situations, we usually have a large amount of prior knowledge that needs to be taken into account when processing data. Traditionally, the Bayesian approach is used to process data in the presence of prior knowledge. Sometimes, when we apply the traditional Bayesian techniques to engineering data, we get inconsistencies between the data and prior knowledge. These inconsistencies are usually caused by the fact that in the traditional approach, we assume that we know the exact sample values, that the prior distribution is exactly known, etc. In reality, the data is imprecise due to measurement errors, the prior knowledge is only approximately known, etc. So, a natural way to deal with the seemingly inconsistent information is to take this imprecision into account in the Bayesian approach – e.g., by using fuzzy techniques. In this paper, we describe several possible scenarios for fuzzifying the Bayesian approach. Particular attention is paid to the interaction between the estimated imprecise parameters. In this paper, to implement the corresponding fuzzy versions of the Bayesian formulas, we use straightforward computations of the related expression – which makes our computations reasonably time-consuming. Computations in the traditional (non-fuzzy) Bayesian approach are much faster – because they use algorithmically efficient reformulations of the Bayesian formulas. We expect that similar reformulations of the fuzzy Bayesian formulas will also drastically decrease the computation time and thus, enhance the practical use of the proposed methods. PMID:24089579

  13. Physical Attractiveness Stereotypes about Marriage: Attractiveness Matching Is Good.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sussman, Steve; And Others

    Previous research on physical attractiveness stereotypes about marriage have used stimulus individuals in isolation. To examine these attractiveness stereotypes using couples as targets, 72 college students (36 females, 36 males) rated eight photographs of four male-female couple types. Members of each couple were either matched (attractive…

  14. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso

    PubMed Central

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G.

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size (n) is less than the dimension (d), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data. PMID:24551316

  15. Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Ng, B M

    2007-10-26

    A discrete-time Markov process can be compactly modeled as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)--a graphical model with nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional dependencies between variables. But in real-world systems, conditional dependencies between variables may be unknown a priori or may vary over time. Model errors can result if the DBN fails to capture all possible interactions between variables. Thus, we explore the representational framework of adaptive DBNs, whose structure and parameters can change from one time step to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian modeling, such as hierarchical Dirichlet processes, infinite-state hidden Markov networks and structured priors for Bayes net learning. In this paper, we will explain the motivation for our interest in adaptive DBNs, show how popular nonparametric methods are combined to formulate the foundations for adaptive DBNs, and present preliminary results.

  16. Surprise maximization reveals the community structure of complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2013-01-01

    How to determine the community structure of complex networks is an open question. It is critical to establish the best strategies for community detection in networks of unknown structure. Here, using standard synthetic benchmarks, we show that none of the algorithms hitherto developed for community structure characterization perform optimally. Significantly, evaluating the results according to their modularity, the most popular measure of the quality of a partition, systematically provides mistaken solutions. However, a novel quality function, called Surprise, can be used to elucidate which is the optimal division into communities. Consequently, we show that the best strategy to find the community structure of all the networks examined involves choosing among the solutions provided by multiple algorithms the one with the highest Surprise value. We conclude that Surprise maximization precisely reveals the community structure of complex networks.

  17. Surprise maximization reveals the community structure of complex networks.

    PubMed

    Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Marín, Ignacio

    2013-01-01

    How to determine the community structure of complex networks is an open question. It is critical to establish the best strategies for community detection in networks of unknown structure. Here, using standard synthetic benchmarks, we show that none of the algorithms hitherto developed for community structure characterization perform optimally. Significantly, evaluating the results according to their modularity, the most popular measure of the quality of a partition, systematically provides mistaken solutions. However, a novel quality function, called Surprise, can be used to elucidate which is the optimal division into communities. Consequently, we show that the best strategy to find the community structure of all the networks examined involves choosing among the solutions provided by multiple algorithms the one with the highest Surprise value. We conclude that Surprise maximization precisely reveals the community structure of complex networks. PMID:23320141

  18. On the temporal interpretation of certain surprise questions.

    PubMed

    Giorgi, Alessandra

    2016-01-01

    This article considers a special kind of surprise questions, i.e. those introduced by the adversative particle ma (but), and compares it with surprise exclamations. The main issue addressed here concerns the obligatory presence in the questions of the imperfect verbal form, versus the obligatory presence in exclamations of a non-imperfect indicative. It will be shown that the special semantics associated with these structures determines the presence of a certain verbal form. Some syntactic issues will be addressed in the final section, having to do with the representation in the syntax of properties connected to the context. PMID:27610309

  19. Physical Attractiveness and Counseling Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vargas, Alice M.; Borkowski, John G.

    1982-01-01

    Searched for interaction between quality of counseling skills (presence or absence of empathy, genuineness, and positive regard) and physical attractiveness as determinants of counseling effectiveness. Attractiveness influenced perceived effectiveness of counselor's skill. Analyses of expectancy data revealed that only with good skills did…

  20. Physical Attractiveness and Courtship Progress.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Gregory L.

    1980-01-01

    Among college students who were casual or serious daters, greater relative attractiveness was positively correlated with greater relative availability of opposite-sexed friends and negatively correlated with worrying about partner's potential involvement with others. A 9-month follow-up revealed that similarity of attractiveness was predictive of…

  1. Personality Mediators of Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Charles D.; And Others

    The current study was an examination of the effect of personality variables on the relationship between attitude disagreement and attraction. Attraction was measured in a neutral situation, designed to maximize any existing affective predispositions toward attitude agreement-disagreements. Subjects were placed in an ambiguous face-to-face…

  2. Physical Attractiveness and Interpersonal Influence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dion, Karen K.; Stein, Steven

    1978-01-01

    Examines the hypothesis that attractive individuals should be more successful with opposite-sex peers but less successful with same-sex peers than unattractive individuals. Also investigates the influence strategies employed by persons differing in attractiveness since nothing is currently known about the actual behavior exhibited by attractive…

  3. Physical attractiveness stereotype and memory.

    PubMed

    Rohner, Jean-Christophe; Rasmussen, Anders

    2011-08-01

    Three experiments examined explicit and implicit memory for information that is congruent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (i.e. attractive-positive and unattractive-negative) and information that is incongruent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (i.e. attractive-negative and unattractive-positive). Measures of explicit recognition sensitivity and implicit discriminability revealed a memorial advantage for congruent compared to incongruent information, as evident from hit and false alarm rates and reaction times, respectively. Measures of explicit memory showed a recognition bias toward congruent compared to incongruent information, where participants tended to call congruent information old, independently of whether the information had been shown previously or not. This recognition bias was unrelated to reports of subjective confidence in retrieval. The present findings shed light on the cognitive mechanisms that might mediate discriminatory behavior towards physically attractive and physically unattractive individuals. PMID:21255024

  4. How Surprising Is a Simple Pattern? Quantifying ''Eureka!''

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldman, Jacob

    2004-01-01

    Simple patterns are compelling. When all the observed facts fit into a simple theory or ''story,'' we are intuitively convinced that the pattern must be "real" rather than random. But how surprising is a simple pattern, really? That is, given a pattern of featural data, such as the properties of a set of objects, how unlikely would the pattern be…

  5. Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

    PubMed Central

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

  6. Surprising yields with no-till cropping systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Producers using no-till practices have observed that crop yields can greatly exceed expectations based on nutrient and water supply. For example, Ralph Holzwarth, who farms near Gettysburg, SD, has averaged 150 bu/ac of corn on his farm for the past 6 years. We were surprised with this yield, as c...

  7. Surprising yields with no-till cropping systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Producers using no-till systems have found that crop yields often exceed their expectation based on nutrient and water supply. For example, corn yields 7% higher in a no-till system in central South Dakota than in a tilled system in eastern South Dakota. This is surprising because rainfall is 5 in...

  8. Bayesian inference in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.

  9. Bayesian classification theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanson, Robin; Stutz, John; Cheeseman, Peter

    1991-01-01

    The task of inferring a set of classes and class descriptions most likely to explain a given data set can be placed on a firm theoretical foundation using Bayesian statistics. Within this framework and using various mathematical and algorithmic approximations, the AutoClass system searches for the most probable classifications, automatically choosing the number of classes and complexity of class descriptions. A simpler version of AutoClass has been applied to many large real data sets, has discovered new independently-verified phenomena, and has been released as a robust software package. Recent extensions allow attributes to be selectively correlated within particular classes, and allow classes to inherit or share model parameters though a class hierarchy. We summarize the mathematical foundations of AutoClass.

  10. Bayesian sperm competition estimates.

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Beatrix; Clark, Andrew G

    2003-01-01

    We introduce a Bayesian method for estimating parameters for a model of multiple mating and sperm displacement from genotype counts of brood-structured data. The model is initially targeted for Drosophila melanogaster, but is easily adapted to other organisms. The method is appropriate for use with field studies where the number of mates and the genotypes of the mates cannot be controlled, but where unlinked markers have been collected for a set of females and a sample of their offspring. Advantages over previous approaches include full use of multilocus information and the ability to cope appropriately with missing data and ambiguities about which alleles are maternally vs. paternally inherited. The advantages of including X-linked markers are also demonstrated. PMID:12663555

  11. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  12. Depression, Schizophrenia, and Social Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boswell, Philip C.; Murray, Edward J.

    1981-01-01

    Compared the dysphoric mood induction and attraction that subjects reported after a vicarious experience with a depressed patient and a comparable experience with a schizophrenic patient. Results showed similar arousal of dysphoric mood and rejection for both patients. (RC)

  13. Sparsity and the Bayesian perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starck, J.-L.; Donoho, D. L.; Fadili, M. J.; Rassat, A.

    2013-04-01

    Sparsity has recently been introduced in cosmology for weak-lensing and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data analysis for different applications such as denoising, component separation, or inpainting (i.e., filling the missing data or the mask). Although it gives very nice numerical results, CMB sparse inpainting has been severely criticized by top researchers in cosmology using arguments derived from a Bayesian perspective. In an attempt to understand their point of view, we realize that interpreting a regularization penalty term as a prior in a Bayesian framework can lead to erroneous conclusions. This paper is by no means against the Bayesian approach, which has proven to be very useful for many applications, but warns against a Bayesian-only interpretation in data analysis, which can be misleading in some cases.

  14. UNIFORMLY MOST POWERFUL BAYESIAN TESTS

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Valen E.

    2014-01-01

    Uniformly most powerful tests are statistical hypothesis tests that provide the greatest power against a fixed null hypothesis among all tests of a given size. In this article, the notion of uniformly most powerful tests is extended to the Bayesian setting by defining uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests to be tests that maximize the probability that the Bayes factor, in favor of the alternative hypothesis, exceeds a specified threshold. Like their classical counterpart, uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests are most easily defined in one-parameter exponential family models, although extensions outside of this class are possible. The connection between uniformly most powerful tests and uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests can be used to provide an approximate calibration between p-values and Bayes factors. Finally, issues regarding the strong dependence of resulting Bayes factors and p-values on sample size are discussed. PMID:24659829

  15. Dietary Effects on Cuticular Hydrocarbons and Sexual Attractiveness in Drosophila

    PubMed Central

    Fedina, Tatyana Y.; Kuo, Tsung-Han; Dreisewerd, Klaus; Dierick, Herman A.; Yew, Joanne Y.; Pletcher, Scott D.

    2012-01-01

    Dietary composition is known to have profound effects on many aspects of animal physiology, including lifespan, general health, and reproductive potential. We have previously shown that aging and insulin signaling significantly influence the composition and sexual attractiveness of Drosophila melanogaster female cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs), some of which are known to be sex pheromones. Because diet is intimately linked to aging and to the activity of nutrient-sensing pathways, we asked how diet affects female CHCs and attractiveness. Here we report consistent and significant effects of diet composition on female CHC profiles across ages, with dietary yeast and sugar driving CHC changes in opposite directions. Surprisingly, however, we found no evidence that these changes affect female attractiveness. Multivariate comparisons among responses of CHC profiles to diet, aging, and insulin signaling suggest that diet may alter the levels of some CHCs in a way that results in profiles that are more attractive while simultaneously altering other CHCs in a way that makes them less attractive. For example, changes in short-chain CHCs induced by a high-yeast diet phenocopy changes caused by aging and by decreased insulin signaling, both of which result in less attractive females. On the other hand, changes in long-chain CHCs in response to the same diet result in levels that are comparable to those observed in attractive young females and females with increased insulin signaling. The effects of a high-sugar diet tend in the opposite direction, as levels of short-chain CHCs resemble those in attractive females with increased insulin signaling and changes in long-chain CHCs are similar to those caused by decreased insulin signaling. Together, these data suggest that diet-dependent changes in female CHCs may be sending conflicting messages to males. PMID:23227150

  16. Attraction between hydrated hydrophilic surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanduč, Matej; Schneck, Emanuel; Netz, Roland R.

    2014-08-01

    According to common knowledge, hydrophilic surfaces repel via hydration forces while hydrophobic surfaces attract, but mounting experimental evidence suggests that also hydrophilic surfaces can attract. Using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations at prescribed water chemical potential we study the crossover from hydration repulsion to hydrophobic attraction for planar polar surfaces of varying stiffness and hydrogen-bonding capability. Rescaling the partial charges of the polar surface groups, we cover the complete spectrum from very hydrophobic surfaces (characterized by contact angles θ ≃ 135°) to hydrophilic surfaces exhibiting complete wetting (θ = 0°). Indeed, for a finite range θadh < θ < 90°, we find a regime where hydrophilic surfaces attract at sub-nanometer separation and stably adhere without intervening water. The adhesive contact angle θadh depends on surface type and lies in the range 65° < θadh < 80°, in good agreement with experiments. Analysis of the total number of hydrogen bonds (HBs) formed by water and surface groups rationalizes this crossover between hydration repulsion and hydrophilic attraction in terms of a subtle balance: Highly polar surfaces repel because of strongly bound hydration water, less polar hydrophilic surfaces attract because water-water HBs are preferred over surface-water HBs. Such solvent reorganization forces presumably underlie also other important phenomena, such as selective ion adsorption to interfaces as well as ion pair formation.

  17. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  18. Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, Michelle E.

    Approximately one hundred participants met for three days at a conference entitled "Uncertainty and Surprise: Questions on Working with the Unexpected and Unknowable." There were a diversity of conference participants ranging from researchers in the natural sciences and researchers in the social sciences (business professors, physicists, ethnographers, nursing school deans) to practitioners and executives in public policy and management (business owners, health care managers, high tech executives), all of whom had varying levels of experience and expertise in dealing with uncertainty and surprise. One group held the traditional, statistical view that uncertainty comes from variance and events that are described by usually unimodal probability law. A second group was comfortable on the one hand with phase diagrams and the phase transitions that come from systems with multi-modal distributions, and on the other hand, with deterministic chaos. A third group was comfortable with the emergent events from evolutionary processes that may not have any probability laws at all.

  19. [Pulmonary embolism in athletes--a surprising diagnosis].

    PubMed

    Rieck, Jonathan; Elkayam, Amitai; Varon, David

    2015-04-01

    Pulmonary embolus is considered a rare and surprising event in the athletic population. Failure to diagnose this condition may lead to serious morbidity and even death. We report a case series of athletes diagnosed at the Acute Diagnostic Unit over the last two years, and discuss the special diagnostic, mechanistic and treatment principles in this population. We hope that this article will increase awareness of this condition amongst the medical teams dealing with this super fit population. PMID:26065218

  20. The June surprises: balls, strikes, and the fog of war.

    PubMed

    Fried, Charles

    2013-04-01

    At first, few constitutional experts took seriously the argument that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exceeded Congress's power under the commerce clause. The highly political opinions of two federal district judges - carefully chosen by challenging plaintiffs - of no particular distinction did not shake that confidence that the act was constitutional. This disdain for the challengers' arguments was only confirmed when the act was upheld by two highly respected conservative court of appeals judges in two separate circuits. But after the hostile, even mocking questioning of the government's advocate in the Supreme Court by the five Republican-appointed justices, the expectation was that the act would indeed be struck down on that ground. So it came as no surprise when the five opined the act did indeed exceed Congress's commerce clause power. But it came as a great surprise when Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by the four Democrat-appointed justices, ruled that the act could be sustained as an exercise of Congress's taxing power - a ground urged by the government almost as an afterthought. It was further surprising, even shocking, that Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito not only wrote a joint opinion on the commerce clause virtually identical to that of their chief, but that in writing it they did not refer to or even acknowledge his opinion. Finally surprising was the fact that Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer joined the chief in holding that aspects of the act's Medicaid expansion were unconstitutional. This essay ponders and tries to unravel some of these puzzles. PMID:23262769

  1. 'The thieving magpie'? No evidence for attraction to shiny objects.

    PubMed

    Shephard, T V; Lea, S E G; Hempel de Ibarra, N

    2015-01-01

    It is widely accepted in European culture that magpies (Pica pica) are unconditionally attracted to shiny objects and routinely steal small trinkets such as jewellery, almost as a compulsion. Despite the long history of this folklore, published accounts of magpies collecting shiny objects are rare and empirical evidence for the behaviour is lacking. The latter is surprising considering that an attraction to bright objects is well documented in some bird species. The present study aims to clarify whether magpies show greater attraction to shiny objects than non-shiny objects when presented at the same time. We did not find evidence of an unconditional attraction to shiny objects in either captive or free-living birds. Instead, all objects elicited responses indicating neophobia in free-living birds. We suggest that humans notice when magpies occasionally pick up shiny objects because they believe the birds find them attractive, while it goes unnoticed when magpies interact with less eye-catching items. The folklore may therefore result from observation bias and cultural inflation of orally transmitted episodic events. PMID:25123853

  2. Approximate Bayesian multibody tracking.

    PubMed

    Lanz, Oswald

    2006-09-01

    Visual tracking of multiple targets is a challenging problem, especially when efficiency is an issue. Occlusions, if not properly handled, are a major source of failure. Solutions supporting principled occlusion reasoning have been proposed but are yet unpractical for online applications. This paper presents a new solution which effectively manages the trade-off between reliable modeling and computational efficiency. The Hybrid Joint-Separable (HJS) filter is derived from a joint Bayesian formulation of the problem, and shown to be efficient while optimal in terms of compact belief representation. Computational efficiency is achieved by employing a Markov random field approximation to joint dynamics and an incremental algorithm for posterior update with an appearance likelihood that implements a physically-based model of the occlusion process. A particle filter implementation is proposed which achieves accurate tracking during partial occlusions, while in cases of complete occlusion, tracking hypotheses are bound to estimated occlusion volumes. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm is efficient, robust, and able to resolve long-term occlusions between targets with identical appearance. PMID:16929730

  3. Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression

    PubMed Central

    Reich, Brian J.; Fuentes, Montserrat; Dunson, David B.

    2013-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act and has been linked with several adverse health effects, including mortality. Due to the strong dependence on weather conditions, ozone may be sensitive to climate change and there is great interest in studying the potential effect of climate change on ozone, and how this change may affect public health. In this paper we develop a Bayesian spatial model to predict ozone under different meteorological conditions, and use this model to study spatial and temporal trends and to forecast ozone concentrations under different climate scenarios. We develop a spatial quantile regression model that does not assume normality and allows the covariates to affect the entire conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. The conditional distribution is allowed to vary from site-to-site and is smoothed with a spatial prior. For extremely large datasets our model is computationally infeasible, and we develop an approximate method. We apply the approximate version of our model to summer ozone from 1997–2005 in the Eastern U.S., and use deterministic climate models to project ozone under future climate conditions. Our analysis suggests that holding all other factors fixed, an increase in daily average temperature will lead to the largest increase in ozone in the Industrial Midwest and Northeast. PMID:23459794

  4. Bayesian Error Estimation Functionals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobsen, Karsten W.

    The challenge of approximating the exchange-correlation functional in Density Functional Theory (DFT) has led to the development of numerous different approximations of varying accuracy on different calculated properties. There is therefore a need for reliable estimation of prediction errors within the different approximation schemes to DFT. The Bayesian Error Estimation Functionals (BEEF) have been developed with this in mind. The functionals are constructed by fitting to experimental and high-quality computational databases for molecules and solids including chemisorption and van der Waals systems. This leads to reasonably accurate general-purpose functionals with particual focus on surface science. The fitting procedure involves considerations on how to combine different types of data, and applies Tikhonov regularization and bootstrap cross validation. The methodology has been applied to construct GGA and metaGGA functionals with and without inclusion of long-ranged van der Waals contributions. The error estimation is made possible by the generation of not only a single functional but through the construction of a probability distribution of functionals represented by a functional ensemble. The use of the functional ensemble is illustrated on compound heat of formation and by investigations of the reliability of calculated catalytic ammonia synthesis rates.

  5. Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression.

    PubMed

    Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act and has been linked with several adverse health effects, including mortality. Due to the strong dependence on weather conditions, ozone may be sensitive to climate change and there is great interest in studying the potential effect of climate change on ozone, and how this change may affect public health. In this paper we develop a Bayesian spatial model to predict ozone under different meteorological conditions, and use this model to study spatial and temporal trends and to forecast ozone concentrations under different climate scenarios. We develop a spatial quantile regression model that does not assume normality and allows the covariates to affect the entire conditional distribution, rather than just the mean. The conditional distribution is allowed to vary from site-to-site and is smoothed with a spatial prior. For extremely large datasets our model is computationally infeasible, and we develop an approximate method. We apply the approximate version of our model to summer ozone from 1997-2005 in the Eastern U.S., and use deterministic climate models to project ozone under future climate conditions. Our analysis suggests that holding all other factors fixed, an increase in daily average temperature will lead to the largest increase in ozone in the Industrial Midwest and Northeast. PMID:23459794

  6. Heritability of Attractiveness to Mosquitoes

    PubMed Central

    Fernández-Grandon, G. Mandela; Gezan, Salvador A.; Armour, John A. L.; Pickett, John A.; Logan, James G.

    2015-01-01

    Female mosquitoes display preferences for certain individuals over others, which is determined by differences in volatile chemicals produced by the human body and detected by mosquitoes. Body odour can be controlled genetically but the existence of a genetic basis for differential attraction to insects has never been formally demonstrated. This study investigated heritability of attractiveness to mosquitoes by evaluating the response of Aedes aegypti (=Stegomyia aegypti) mosquitoes to odours from the hands of identical and non-identical twins in a dual-choice assay. Volatiles from individuals in an identical twin pair showed a high correlation in attractiveness to mosquitoes, while non-identical twin pairs showed a significantly lower correlation. Overall, there was a strong narrow-sense heritability of 0.62 (SE 0.124) for relative attraction and 0.67 (0.354) for flight activity based on the average of ten measurements. The results demonstrate an underlying genetic component detectable by mosquitoes through olfaction. Understanding the genetic basis for attractiveness could create a more informed approach to repellent development. PMID:25901606

  7. Heritability of attractiveness to mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Grandon, G Mandela; Gezan, Salvador A; Armour, John A L; Pickett, John A; Logan, James G

    2015-01-01

    Female mosquitoes display preferences for certain individuals over others, which is determined by differences in volatile chemicals produced by the human body and detected by mosquitoes. Body odour can be controlled genetically but the existence of a genetic basis for differential attraction to insects has never been formally demonstrated. This study investigated heritability of attractiveness to mosquitoes by evaluating the response of Aedes aegypti (=Stegomyia aegypti) mosquitoes to odours from the hands of identical and non-identical twins in a dual-choice assay. Volatiles from individuals in an identical twin pair showed a high correlation in attractiveness to mosquitoes, while non-identical twin pairs showed a significantly lower correlation. Overall, there was a strong narrow-sense heritability of 0.62 (SE 0.124) for relative attraction and 0.67 (0.354) for flight activity based on the average of ten measurements. The results demonstrate an underlying genetic component detectable by mosquitoes through olfaction. Understanding the genetic basis for attractiveness could create a more informed approach to repellent development. PMID:25901606

  8. Vocal attractiveness increases by averaging.

    PubMed

    Bruckert, Laetitia; Bestelmeyer, Patricia; Latinus, Marianne; Rouger, Julien; Charest, Ian; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Kawahara, Hideki; Belin, Pascal

    2010-01-26

    Vocal attractiveness has a profound influence on listeners-a bias known as the "what sounds beautiful is good" vocal attractiveness stereotype [1]-with tangible impact on a voice owner's success at mating, job applications, and/or elections. The prevailing view holds that attractive voices are those that signal desirable attributes in a potential mate [2-4]-e.g., lower pitch in male voices. However, this account does not explain our preferences in more general social contexts in which voices of both genders are evaluated. Here we show that averaging voices via auditory morphing [5] results in more attractive voices, irrespective of the speaker's or listener's gender. Moreover, we show that this phenomenon is largely explained by two independent by-products of averaging: a smoother voice texture (reduced aperiodicities) and a greater similarity in pitch and timbre with the average of all voices (reduced "distance to mean"). These results provide the first evidence for a phenomenon of vocal attractiveness increases by averaging, analogous to a well-established effect of facial averaging [6, 7]. They highlight prototype-based coding [8] as a central feature of voice perception, emphasizing the similarity in the mechanisms of face and voice perception. PMID:20129047

  9. Aversion and attraction through olfaction

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qian; Liberles, Stephen D.

    2015-01-01

    Sensory cues that predict reward or punishment are fundamental drivers of animal behavior. For example, attractive odors of palatable food or a potential mate predict reward while aversive odors of pathogen-laced food or a predator predict punishment. Aversive and attractive odors can be detected by intermingled sensory neurons that express highly related olfactory receptors and display similar central projections. These findings raise basic questions of how innate odor valence is extracted from olfactory circuits, how such circuits are developmentally endowed and modulated by state, and the relationship between innate and learned odor responses. Here, we review odors, receptors, and neural circuits associated with stimulus valence, discussing salient principles derived from studies on nematodes, insects, and vertebrates. Understanding the organization of neural circuitry that mediates odor aversion and attraction will provide key insights into how the brain functions. PMID:25649823

  10. Effective writing that attracts patients.

    PubMed

    Baum, Neil

    2015-01-01

    Doctors today not only must communicate verbally, they must also realize that the written word is important to their ability to connect with the patients that they already have and also to attract new patients. Doctors will be expected to write blogs, to create content for their Web sites, to write articles for local publications, and even to learn to express themselves in 140 characters or less (i.e., Twitter). This article presents 10 rules for selecting the right words to enhance your communication with existing patients and potentially to attract new patients to your practice. PMID:26062324

  11. Herschel and Planck: surprises in the sub-mm band

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Nuevo González, J.

    2015-05-01

    This paper focused on three of the most spectacular and almost unexpected results obtained from the observations in the sub-mm band coming from the ESA's Herschel and Planck missions: the detection of hundred of strongly lensed galaxies, the identification of high-z proto-clusters, and the study of the weak lensing signal through the cross-correlation analysis. Although, there were theoretical works that anticipate them, none of these interesting results appeared in the original scientific programs of both mission. For this reason we have called them ``surprises''.

  12. The doctor was surprised; or, how to diagnose a miracle.

    PubMed

    Duffin, Jacalyn

    2007-01-01

    A survey of more than six hundred miracle records in the canonization files of the Vatican Secret Archives from the seventeenth century to the twentieth century reveals that more than 95 percent are healings from illness. The history of the canonization process is summarized to explain the sources. The diagnoses amenable to miracle cure change through time to reflect current medical preoccupations and methods. Physician testimony has always been crucial to the investigation of miracles for declaring the hopeless prognosis and the surprise at recovery. From this analysis, medicine and religion emerge as parallel semiotic endeavors, using their canons of wisdom and careful observation to derive meaning in suffering. PMID:18084104

  13. Attracting Birds to Your Backyard.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joyce, Brian

    1994-01-01

    Discusses methods for drawing birds to outdoor education areas, including the use of wild and native vegetation. Lists specific garden plants suitable for attracting birds in each season. Includes a guide to commercial bird seed and instructions for building homemade birdfeeders and nestboxes. (LZ)

  14. Functional Similarity and Interpersonal Attraction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neimeyer, Greg J.; Neimeyer, Robert A.

    1981-01-01

    Students participated in dyadic disclosure exercises over a five-week period. Results indicated members of high functional similarity dyads evidenced greater attraction to one another than did members of low functional similarity dyads. "Friendship" pairs of male undergraduates displayed greater functional similarity than did "nominal" pairs from…

  15. Attractiveness and Influence in Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Lyle D.; Strong, Stanley R.

    1971-01-01

    The results showed that in spite of violently different feelings about (or descriptions of) the roles, the subjects were equally influenced by them. This suggests that social attractiveness may not be important when the client's problems require expert opinion and knowledge. (Author/CG(

  16. Variational Bayesian method for Retinex.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liqian; Xiao, Liang; Liu, Hongyi; Wei, Zhihui

    2014-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a variational Bayesian method for Retinex to simulate and interpret how the human visual system perceives color. To construct a hierarchical Bayesian model, we use the Gibbs distributions as prior distributions for the reflectance and the illumination, and the gamma distributions for the model parameters. By assuming that the reflection function is piecewise continuous and illumination function is spatially smooth, we define the energy functions in the Gibbs distributions as a total variation function and a smooth function for the reflectance and the illumination, respectively. We then apply the variational Bayes approximation to obtain the approximation of the posterior distribution of unknowns so that the unknown images and hyperparameters are estimated simultaneously. Experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method for providing competitive performance without additional information about the unknown parameters, and when prior information is added the proposed method outperforms the non-Bayesian-based Retinex methods we compared. PMID:24846606

  17. Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids

    PubMed Central

    Fea, Murray P.; Stanley, Margaret C.; Holwell, Gregory I.

    2013-01-01

    Overlap in the form of sexual signals such as pheromones raises the possibility of reproductive interference by invasive species on similar, yet naive native species. Here, we test the potential for reproductive interference through heterospecific mate attraction and subsequent predation of males by females of a sexually cannibalistic invasive praying mantis. Miomantis caffra is invasive in New Zealand, where it is widely considered to be displacing the only native mantis species, Orthodera novaezealandiae, and yet mechanisms behind this displacement are unknown. We demonstrate that native males are more attracted to the chemical cues of introduced females than those of conspecific females. Heterospecific pairings also resulted in a high degree of mortality for native males. This provides evidence for a mechanism behind displacement that has until now been undetected and highlights the potential for reproductive interference to greatly influence the impact of an invasive species. PMID:24284560

  18. Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids.

    PubMed

    Fea, Murray P; Stanley, Margaret C; Holwell, Gregory I

    2013-01-01

    Overlap in the form of sexual signals such as pheromones raises the possibility of reproductive interference by invasive species on similar, yet naive native species. Here, we test the potential for reproductive interference through heterospecific mate attraction and subsequent predation of males by females of a sexually cannibalistic invasive praying mantis. Miomantis caffra is invasive in New Zealand, where it is widely considered to be displacing the only native mantis species, Orthodera novaezealandiae, and yet mechanisms behind this displacement are unknown. We demonstrate that native males are more attracted to the chemical cues of introduced females than those of conspecific females. Heterospecific pairings also resulted in a high degree of mortality for native males. This provides evidence for a mechanism behind displacement that has until now been undetected and highlights the potential for reproductive interference to greatly influence the impact of an invasive species. PMID:24284560

  19. Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.

    1992-01-01

    This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.

  20. 10 years of surprises at Saturn: CAPS and INMS highlights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coates, A. J.; Waite, J. H.

    2014-04-01

    The Cassini mission at Saturn has provided many surprises on Saturn's rapidly rotating magnetosphere and its interaction with the diverse moons, as well as its interaction with the solar wind. One of the early discoveries was the water-rich composition of the magnetosphere. Its structure and dynamics indicate remarkable injections, periodicities and interchange events. Enceladus, orbiting at 4 RS, was found to have plumes of water vapour and ice which are the dominant source for the inner magnetosphere. Charged water clusters, charged dust and photoelectrons provide key populations in the 'dusty plasma' seen here, as well as chemical complexity in the plume material. Direct pickup is seen near Enceladus and field aligned currents create a spot in Saturn's aurora. At Titan, orbiting at 20 RS, heavy negative and positive ions are seen in the ionosphere, as well as neutrals, all of which have surprising chemical complexity. These provide the source for Titan's haze. Ionospheric plasma is seen in Titan's tail, enabling ion escape to be estimated at 7 tonnes per day. Saturn's ring ionosphere was seen early in the mission, which was oxygen rich and produced photoelectrons; a return will be made in 2017. At Rhea, pickup positive and negative ions indicated weak atmospheres sustained by energetic particle impact, seen in the neutrals also. A weak atmosphere was also seen at Dione. The exosphere production process operates at Jupiter's moons also. Here we review some of the key new results, and discuss the implications for other solar system contexts.

  1. Bayesian image reconstruction in astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunez, Jorge; Llacer, Jorge

    1990-09-01

    This paper presents the development and testing of a new iterative reconstruction algorithm for astronomy. A maximum a posteriori method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian statistical framework is proposed for the Poisson-noise case. The method uses the entropy with an adjustable 'sharpness parameter' to define the prior probability and the likelihood with 'data increment' parameters to define the conditional probability. The method makes it possible to obtain reconstructions with neither the problem of the 'grey' reconstructions associated with the pure Bayesian reconstructions nor the problem of image deterioration, typical of the maximum-likelihood method. The present iterative algorithm is fast and stable, maintains positivity, and converges to feasible images.

  2. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  3. Discovery of mosquito attractants and attraction-inhibitors invited talk on attractants and repellents

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has developed repellents and insecticides for the U.S. military since 1942. A small component of this research program has aimed at the discovery of attractants that can be used to produce potent lures for haematophagous arthropods, with a primary f...

  4. Facial Attractiveness Ratings from Video-Clips and Static Images Tell the Same Story

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Gillian; Lie, Hanne C.; Thevaraja, Nishta; Taylor, Libby; Iredell, Natasha; Curran, Christine; Tan, Shi Qin Claire; Carnemolla, Pia; Simmons, Leigh W.

    2011-01-01

    Most of what we know about what makes a face attractive and why we have the preferences we do is based on attractiveness ratings of static images of faces, usually photographs. However, several reports that such ratings fail to correlate significantly with ratings made to dynamic video clips, which provide richer samples of appearance, challenge the validity of this literature. Here, we tested the validity of attractiveness ratings made to static images, using a substantial sample of male faces. We found that these ratings agreed very strongly with ratings made to videos of these men, despite the presence of much more information in the videos (multiple views, neutral and smiling expressions and speech-related movements). Not surprisingly, given this high agreement, the components of video-attractiveness were also very similar to those reported previously for static-attractiveness. Specifically, averageness, symmetry and masculinity were all significant components of attractiveness rated from videos. Finally, regression analyses yielded very similar effects of attractiveness on success in obtaining sexual partners, whether attractiveness was rated from videos or static images. These results validate the widespread use of attractiveness ratings made to static images in evolutionary and social psychological research. We speculate that this validity may stem from our tendency to make rapid and robust judgements of attractiveness. PMID:22096491

  5. Physical attractiveness and reproductive success in humans: Evidence from the late 20th century United States

    PubMed Central

    Jokela, Markus

    2010-01-01

    Physical attractiveness has been associated with mating behavior, but its role in reproductive success of contemporary humans has received surprisingly little attention. In the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (1244 women, 997 men born between 1937 and 1940) we examined whether attractiveness assessed from photographs taken at age ~18 predicted the number of biological children at age 53–56. In women, attractiveness predicted higher reproductive success in a nonlinear fashion, so that attractive (second highest quartile) women had 16% and very attractive (highest quartile) women 6% more children than their less attractive counterparts. In men, there was a threshold effect so that men in the lowest attractiveness quartile had 13% fewer children than others who did not differ from each other in the average number of children. These associations were partly but not completely accounted for by attractive participants’ increased marriage probability. A linear regression analysis indicated relatively weak directional selection gradient for attractiveness (β=0.06 in women, β=0.07 in men). These findings indicate that physical attractiveness may be associated with reproductive success in humans living in industrialized settings. PMID:21151758

  6. Fingertip aura and interpersonal attraction.

    PubMed

    Murstein, B I; Hadjolian, S E

    1977-06-01

    Concluding from our survey of the literature that fingertip auras (Kirlian effect) might be associated with interpersonal attraction, four hypotheses were advanced to test this assertion. It was hypothesized that individuals would respond with bigger auras to (1) opposite-sex photographers as compared to same-sex photographers, (2) to seductive opposite-sex photographers as opposed to normally behaving opposite-sex photographers, (3) to opposite-sex unknown peers as opposed to same-sex unknown peers, and (4) to liked as opposed to disliked same-sex persons. All hypotheses except (2) were supported. The second hypothesis was significant in a direction contrary to hypothesis. Fingertip auras are seen as a promising measurement device in the study of interpersonal attraction. PMID:16367230

  7. Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research

    PubMed Central

    Little, Anthony C.; Jones, Benedict C.; DeBruine, Lisa M.

    2011-01-01

    Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551

  8. The attraction of Brazil nuts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, D. A.; Swift, M. R.; Bowley, R. M.; King, P. J.

    2006-02-01

    Simulations of intruder particles in a vertically vibrated granular bed suggest that neutrally-buoyant intruders are attracted to one another (Phys. Rev. Lett., 93 (2004) 208002). The simulations, however, ignore important physical effects such as friction and convection which are known to influence intruder behaviour. Here, we present experimental evidence for this intruder-intruder interaction, obtained by monitoring the position of neutrally-buoyant metallic disks in a vibrated bed of glass spheres. An effective long-range attraction is shown to exist between a pair of intruders for a range of driving conditions. If further intruder particles are added, a tightly bound cluster of intruders can form. These results highlight the difficulty of retaining well-mixed granular beds under vertical vibration.

  9. Facial attractiveness: evolutionary based research.

    PubMed

    Little, Anthony C; Jones, Benedict C; DeBruine, Lisa M

    2011-06-12

    Face preferences affect a diverse range of critical social outcomes, from mate choices and decisions about platonic relationships to hiring decisions and decisions about social exchange. Firstly, we review the facial characteristics that influence attractiveness judgements of faces (e.g. symmetry, sexually dimorphic shape cues, averageness, skin colour/texture and cues to personality) and then review several important sources of individual differences in face preferences (e.g. hormone levels and fertility, own attractiveness and personality, visual experience, familiarity and imprinting, social learning). The research relating to these issues highlights flexible, sophisticated systems that support and promote adaptive responses to faces that appear to function to maximize the benefits of both our mate choices and more general decisions about other types of social partners. PMID:21536551

  10. Taspase 1: A protease with many biological surprises

    PubMed Central

    Niizuma, Hidetaka; Cheng, Emily H; Hsieh, James J

    2015-01-01

    Taspase 1 (TASP1) cleaves the mixed-lineage leukemia (MLL) and transcription factor (TF) IIA families of nuclear proteins to orchestrate various biological processes. TASP1 is not a classical oncogene, but assists in cell proliferation and permits oncogenic initiation through cleavage of MLL and TFIIA. TASP1 is thus better classified as a “non-oncogene addiction” protease, and targeting TASP1 offers a novel and attractive anticancer therapeutic strategy. PMID:27308523

  11. Can Pensions Help Attract Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kimball, Steven M.; Heneman, Herbert G.,III; Kellor, Eileen M.

    2005-01-01

    Every year there is a substantial flow of people into teaching roles as entrants or as movers from one school to another. Each such move involves attraction of the person to the job. Data for 1999-2000 reveal several important findings about teacher staffing. In 1999-2000, out of a teaching workforce of about 3.45 million, there were about 535,000…

  12. Pyrazines Attract Catocheilus Thynnine Wasps.

    PubMed

    Bohman, Bjorn; Peakall, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Five previously identified semiochemicals from the sexually deceptive Western Australian hammer orchid Drakaea livida, all showing electrophysiological activity in gas chromatography-electroantennogram detection (EAD) studies, were tested in field bioassays as attractants for a Catocheilus thynnine wasp. Two of these compounds, (3,5,6-trimethylpyrazin-2-yl)methyl 3-methylbutanoate and 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, were attractive to male wasps. Additionally, the semiochemical 3-(3-methylbutyl)-2,5-dimethylpyrazine, a close analogue to 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, identified in five other species of thynnine wasps, was equally active. The three remaining compounds from D. livida, which were EAD-active against Catocheilus, did not attract the insects in field trials. It is interesting that two structurally similar compounds induce similar behaviours in field experiments, yet only one of these compounds is present in the orchid flower. Our findings suggest the possibility that despite the high specificity normally characterising sex pheromone systems, the evolution of sexual deception may not be entirely constrained by the need to precisely match the sex pheromone constituents and blends. Such evolutionary flexibility may be particularly important during the early stages of speciation. PMID:26462695

  13. Pyrazines Attract Catocheilus Thynnine Wasps

    PubMed Central

    Bohman, Bjorn; Peakall, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Five previously identified semiochemicals from the sexually deceptive Western Australian hammer orchid Drakaea livida, all showing electrophysiological activity in gas chromatography–electroantennogram detection (EAD) studies, were tested in field bioassays as attractants for a Catocheilus thynnine wasp. Two of these compounds, (3,5,6-trimethylpyrazin-2-yl)methyl 3-methylbutanoate and 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, were attractive to male wasps. Additionally, the semiochemical 3-(3-methylbutyl)-2,5-dimethylpyrazine, a close analogue to 2-(3-methylbutyl)-3,5,6-trimethylpyrazine, identified in five other species of thynnine wasps, was equally active. The three remaining compounds from D. livida, which were EAD-active against Catocheilus, did not attract the insects in field trials. It is interesting that two structurally similar compounds induce similar behaviours in field experiments, yet only one of these compounds is present in the orchid flower. Our findings suggest the possibility that despite the high specificity normally characterising sex pheromone systems, the evolution of sexual deception may not be entirely constrained by the need to precisely match the sex pheromone constituents and blends. Such evolutionary flexibility may be particularly important during the early stages of speciation. PMID:26462695

  14. Collective motion from local attraction.

    PubMed

    Strömbom, Daniel

    2011-08-21

    Many animal groups, for example schools of fish or flocks of birds, exhibit complex dynamic patterns while moving cohesively in the same direction. These flocking patterns have been studied using self-propelled particle models, most of which assume that collective motion arises from individuals aligning with their neighbours. Here, we propose a self-propelled particle model in which the only social force between individuals is attraction. We show that this model generates three different phases: swarms, undirected mills and moving aligned groups. By studying our model in the zero noise limit, we show how these phases depend on the relative strength of attraction and individual inertia. Moreover, by restricting the field of vision of the individuals and increasing the degree of noise in the system, we find that the groups generate both directed mills and three dynamically moving, 'rotating chain' structures. A rich diversity of patterns is generated by social attraction alone, which may provide insight into the dynamics of natural flocks. PMID:21620861

  15. Attracted diffusion-limited aggregation.

    PubMed

    Rahbari, S H Ebrahimnazhad; Saberi, A A

    2012-07-01

    In this paper we present results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) with a seed placed on an attractive plane as a simple model in connection with the electrical double layers. We compute the fractal dimension of the aggregated patterns as a function of the attraction strength α. For the patterns grown in both two and three dimensions, the fractal dimension shows a significant dependence on the attraction strength for small values of α and approaches that of the ordinary two-dimensional (2D) DLA in the limit of large α. For the nonattracting case with α = 1, our results in three dimensions reproduce the patterns of 3D ordinary DLA, while in two dimensions our model leads to the formation of a compact cluster with dimension 2. For intermediate α, the 3D clusters have a quasi-2D structure with a fractal dimension very close to that of the ordinary 2D DLA. This allows one to control the morphology of a growing cluster by tuning a single external parameter α. PMID:23005417

  16. Attracted diffusion-limited aggregation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahbari, S. H. Ebrahimnazhad; Saberi, A. A.

    2012-07-01

    In this paper we present results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) with a seed placed on an attractive plane as a simple model in connection with the electrical double layers. We compute the fractal dimension of the aggregated patterns as a function of the attraction strength α. For the patterns grown in both two and three dimensions, the fractal dimension shows a significant dependence on the attraction strength for small values of α and approaches that of the ordinary two-dimensional (2D) DLA in the limit of large α. For the nonattracting case with α=1, our results in three dimensions reproduce the patterns of 3D ordinary DLA, while in two dimensions our model leads to the formation of a compact cluster with dimension 2. For intermediate α, the 3D clusters have a quasi-2D structure with a fractal dimension very close to that of the ordinary 2D DLA. This allows one to control the morphology of a growing cluster by tuning a single external parameter α.

  17. The Influence of Physical Attractiveness and Gender on Ultimatum Game Decisions.

    PubMed

    Solnick; Schweitzer

    1999-09-01

    Physical appearance influences behavior in a number of environments, yet surprisingly little is known about the influence of physical attractiveness on the bargaining process. We conducted an ultimatum game experiment to investigate the influence of physical attractiveness and gender on ultimatum game decisions. Results from this study revealed no significant differences in the offers or demands attractive and unattractive people made. However, attractive people and men were treated differently by others. Consistent with the notion of a "beauty premium," attractive people were offered more, but more was demanded of them. Men were also offered more, and less was demanded of them. We discuss implications of these results with respect to bargaining and the labor market. Copyright 1999 Academic Press. PMID:10471361

  18. Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication

    PubMed Central

    Allaby, Robin G.; Kitchen, James L.; Fuller, Dorian Q.

    2015-01-01

    Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse. PMID:27081302

  19. Destabilization of flapping sheets: The surprising analogue of soap films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lhuissier, H.; Villermaux, E.

    2009-06-01

    When punctured, a uniform liquid sheet is known, since Taylor and Culick, to recess at a constant speed, balancing surface tension and inertia. For planar soap films, this steady solution holds until the initially smooth receding rim is violently destabilized, exhibiting deep indentations from which droplets are ejected. A surprising new three-dimensional mechanism explaining this destabilization and resulting wavelength has been demonstrated: because of the shear between the still outer medium and the receding liquid, the film flaps through a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, itself inducing an acceleration perpendicular to the film, which intensifies with the flapping amplitude. To this acceleration is associated a classical Rayleigh-Taylor mechanism, promoting the rim indentations. To cite this article: H. Lhuissier, E. Villermaux, C. R. Mecanique 337 (2009).

  20. Stability of the Taylor--Culick receding rim: surprising observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lhuissier, Henri; Villermaux, Emmanuel

    2008-11-01

    When punctured, a uniform liquid sheet is known, since Taylor and Culick, to recess at a constant speed balancing surface tension and inertia. For planar soap films, this steady solution holds until the initially smooth receding rim is violently destabilized, exhibiting deep indentations from which droplets are ejected. A surprising new three dimensional mechanism explaining this destabilization and resulting wavelength has been evidenced : because of the shear between the still outer medium and the receding liquid, the film flaps through a Kelvin--Helmholtz instability, itself inducing an acceleration perpendicular to the film, which intensifies with the flapping amplitude. To this acceleration is associated a classical Rayleigh--Taylor mechanism, promoting the rim indentations. The same mechanism holds for a punctured round bubble, for which the relevant acceleration is the Culick velocity squared divided by the bubble radius. The bearing of this phenomenon on aerosols formation in Nature will be underlined.

  1. A closer look at eta Carinae's surprising nitrogen chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordiner, Martin; Jones, Paul; Millar, Tom; Charnley, Steven; Mcelroy, Daniel; Milam, Stefanie

    2013-04-01

    The ejecta of the luminous blue variable (LBV) star eta Carinae has recently been found to be surprisingly rich in simple nitrogen-bearing molecules, and theory predicts that more complex species such as HC3N and CH3CN are abundant in the warm inner regions of the Homunculus. We therefore propose to search for emission from HC3N, CH3CN and other nitrogen-bearing molecules in eta Carinae. We will also map HCN and HNC with unprecedented spatial detail to determine the origin and spatial extent of these species. The proposed observations will be crucial for developing chemical models of this source, which we will use to (1) promote understanding of the chemistry of this star and its mysterious ejecta and (2) provide information on molecule formation around massive stars that are about to undergo Type II supernova explosions.

  2. 29 years of surprises from hotspots: A personal perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Students Of Eao, .; Okal, E. A.

    2003-12-01

    I arrived at Caltech on 26 August 1974, to begin my graduate studies at the Seismo Lab, then under the Directorship of Don L. Anderson. These were the days, among other topics, of Don's famous multilingual footnote on the "definition..., antecedents..., supporters and detractors" of the concept of "plume" [GSA Bull., 86, p. 1593, 1975], and even though I was not to set foot on a hotspot island until my first trip to Tahiti in December 1977 (those stopovers at Keflavik on the 199-dollar Loftleidir runs did not really count), I quickly acquired a mild form of Don's contagious fascination for the activity and structure of hotspots. As a tribute to Don, I have chosen to recap here a few surprising results obtained, with the help of my students, past and present, over several decades of work on the seismological sources and structures in the neighborhood of hotspot islands.

  3. Tree Leaf Shadows to the Sun's Density: A Surprising Route

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallmann, A. James

    2013-01-01

    Rays of sunlight that strike raindrops produce rainbows that provide information about the spectrum of sunlight. Rays of sunlight that strike airborne ice crystals produce halos, sun pillars, and many other patterns of light and color in the sky. Analysis of those patterns makes it possible to determine the types and orientations of the ice crystals. Rays of sunlight that strike opaque objects produce shadow patterns that can be seen on any clear day. I was surprised to discover that the shadow patterns produced when sunlight strikes tree leaves provide all the information needed to determine the average density of the Sun. It seems unlikely that the Sun's density could be determined without knowing its mass or its volume. And, although it may seem even more unlikely, the density of the Sun can be determined using only information available in the shadows of tree leaves.

  4. Word Learning as Bayesian Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Fei; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2007-01-01

    The authors present a Bayesian framework for understanding how adults and children learn the meanings of words. The theory explains how learners can generalize meaningfully from just one or a few positive examples of a novel word's referents, by making rational inductive inferences that integrate prior knowledge about plausible word meanings with…

  5. Bayesian stable isotope mixing models

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper we review recent advances in Stable Isotope Mixing Models (SIMMs) and place them into an over-arching Bayesian statistical framework which allows for several useful extensions. SIMMs are used to quantify the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixtur...

  6. Bayesian Integration of Spatial Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Ken; Shettleworth, Sara J.; Huttenlocher, Janellen; Rieser, John J.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…

  7. Subjective and Objective Facial Attractiveness

    PubMed Central

    Stillman, Mark A.; Frisina, Andrew C.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Studies have not adequately compared subjective/objective ratings of female dermatology patients including patients presenting for cosmetic procedures. Objective: To examine objective versus subjective facial attractiveness ratings, demographic variables, and how men versus women judge female facial attractiveness. Methods: Sixty-five women (mean 42 years) presenting to a dermatology office. Subjects filled out a demographic and attractiveness questionnaire and were photographed. Four judges (2 male and 2 female) rated the photographs on a predefined 1 to 7 scale. Results: Mean subjective rating (subjects rating themselves) was 4.85 versus 3.61 for objective rating (judges rating subjects) (p<0.001). The mean age of subjects self-rating (subjective rating) who rated themselves in the 5 to 7 range was 39 years; the mean age of subjects self-rating (subjective rating) who rated themselves in the 3 to 4 range was 45 years (p=0.053). The mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 5 to 7 range was 33 years; the mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 3 to 4 range was 43 years (p<0.001); and the mean age of subjects objectively rated by judges in the 1 to 2 range was 50 years (p<0.001). The mean subjective rating (subjects rating themselves) for married women was 4.55 versus 5.27 for unmarried women (p=0.007); the mean objective rating (judges rating subjects) was 3.22 versus 4.15 (p<0.001). The mean objective rating by male judges was 3.09 versus 4.12 for female judges (p<0.001) Conclusion: Female patients presenting to a dermatology office rated themselves more attractive than did judges who viewed photographs of the subjects. Age and marital status were significant factors, and male judges rated attractiveness lower than female judges. Limitations of the study, implications, and suggestions for future research directions are discussed. PMID:21203353

  8. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H.; Stewart, T.R.

    1998-01-01

    This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.

  9. Bayesian inferences about the self (and others): A review

    PubMed Central

    Moutoussis, Michael; Fearon, Pasco; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing the brain as an organ of approximate Bayesian inference can help us understand how it represents the self. We suggest that inferred representations of the self have a normative function: to predict and optimise the likely outcomes of social interactions. Technically, we cast this predict-and-optimise as maximising the chance of favourable outcomes through active inference. Here the utility of outcomes can be conceptualised as prior beliefs about final states. Actions based on interpersonal representations can therefore be understood as minimising surprise – under the prior belief that one will end up in states with high utility. Interpersonal representations thus serve to render interactions more predictable, while the affective valence of interpersonal inference renders self-perception evaluative. Distortions of self-representation contribute to major psychiatric disorders such as depression, personality disorder and paranoia. The approach we review may therefore operationalise the study of interpersonal representations in pathological states. PMID:24583455

  10. Bayesian versus 'plain-vanilla Bayesian' multitarget statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahler, Ronald P. S.

    2004-08-01

    Finite-set statistics (FISST) is a direct generalization of single-sensor, single-target Bayes statistics to the multisensor-multitarget realm, based on random set theory. Various aspects of FISST are being investigated by several research teams around the world. In recent years, however, a few partisans have claimed that a "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" suffices as down-to-earth, "straightforward," and general "first principles" for multitarget problems. Therefore, FISST is mere mathematical "obfuscation." In this and a companion paper I demonstrate the speciousness of these claims. In this paper I summarize general Bayes statistics, what is required to use it in multisensor-multitarget problems, and why FISST is necessary to make it practical. Then I demonstrate that the "plain-vanilla Bayesian approach" is so heedlessly formulated that it is erroneous, not even Bayesian denigrates FISST concepts while unwittingly assuming them, and has resulted in a succession of algorithms afflicted by inherent -- but less than candidly acknowledged -- computational "logjams."

  11. A surprising dipolar cycloaddition provides ready access to aminoglycosides.

    PubMed

    Dahl, Russell S; Finney, Nathaniel S

    2004-07-14

    This contribution describes the results of a new research effort in our laboratory aimed at the synthesis of novel aminoglycosides and amino-C-glycosides. Despite the importance of such compounds, and the previous development of some methodological solutions, this remains an important area of research. Notable features of our approach, which is distinct from and complementary to previous efforts, are the following: (1) Reliance on a surprising and unprecedented formation of glycal triazolines via an inverse electron demand dipolar cycloaddition of glucal. We believe this desirable transformation has not previously been discovered because of the unusual selection of substrates and solvent required. (2) Very mild reaction conditions. An initial thermal cycloaddition is carried out in an inert solvent, the triazoline generated is photochemically converted to a reactive aziridine, and the crude aziridine undergoes ring opening at room temperature in the presence of a nucleophile and a mild Lewis acid catalyst. (3) Formation of products lacking an N-acyl group, allowing ready synthesis of novel glucosamine derivatives. PMID:15237974

  12. Small particles dominate Saturn's Phoebe ring to surprisingly large distances.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Douglas P; Skrutskie, Michael F; Verbiscer, Anne J; Masci, Frank J

    2015-06-11

    Saturn's faint outermost ring, discovered in 2009 (ref. 1), is probably formed by particles ejected from the distant moon Phoebe. The ring was detected between distances of 128 and 207 Saturn radii (RS = 60,330 kilometres) from the planet, with a full vertical extent of 40RS, making it well over ten times larger than Saturn's hitherto largest known ring, the E ring. The total radial extent of the Phoebe ring could not, however, be determined at that time, nor could particle sizes be significantly constrained. Here we report infrared imaging of the entire ring, which extends from 100RS out to a surprisingly distant 270RS. We model the orbital dynamics of ring particles launched from Phoebe, and construct theoretical power-law profiles of the particle size distribution. We find that very steep profiles fit the data best, and that elevated grain temperatures, arising because of the radiative inefficiency of the smallest grains, probably contribute to the steepness. By converting our constraint on particle sizes into a form that is independent of the uncertain size distribution, we determine that particles with radii greater than ten centimetres, whose orbits do not decay appreciably inward over 4.5 billion years, contribute at most about ten per cent to the cross-sectional area of the ring's dusty component. PMID:26062508

  13. Atom Surprise: Using Theatre in Primary Science Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peleg, Ran; Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet

    2011-10-01

    Early exposure to science may have a lifelong effect on children's attitudes towards science and their motivation to learn science in later life. Out-of-class environments can play a significant role in creating favourable attitudes, while contributing to conceptual learning. Educational science theatre is one form of an out-of-class environment, which has received little research attention. This study aims to describe affective and cognitive learning outcomes of watching such a play and to point to connections between theatrical elements and specific outcomes. "Atom Surprise" is a play portraying several concepts on the topic of matter. A mixed methods approach was adopted to investigate the knowledge and attitudes of children (grades 1-6) from two different school settings who watched the play. Data were gathered using questionnaires and in-depth interviews. Analysis suggested that in both schools children's knowledge on the topic of matter increased after the play with younger children gaining more conceptual knowledge than their older peers. In the public school girls showed greater gains in conceptual knowledge than boys. No significant changes in students' general attitudes towards science were found, however, students demonstrated positive changes towards science learning. Theatrical elements that seemed to be important in children's recollection of the play were the narrative, props and stage effects, and characters. In the children's memory, science was intertwined with the theatrical elements. Nonetheless, children could distinguish well between scientific facts and the fictive narrative.

  14. Small particles dominate Saturn's Phoebe ring to surprisingly large distances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, Douglas P.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Verbiscer, Anne J.; Masci, Frank J.

    2015-06-01

    Saturn's faint outermost ring, discovered in 2009 (ref. 1), is probably formed by particles ejected from the distant moon Phoebe. The ring was detected between distances of 128 and 207 Saturn radii (RS = 60,330 kilometres) from the planet, with a full vertical extent of 40RS, making it well over ten times larger than Saturn's hitherto largest known ring, the E ring. The total radial extent of the Phoebe ring could not, however, be determined at that time, nor could particle sizes be significantly constrained. Here we report infrared imaging of the entire ring, which extends from 100RS out to a surprisingly distant 270RS. We model the orbital dynamics of ring particles launched from Phoebe, and construct theoretical power-law profiles of the particle size distribution. We find that very steep profiles fit the data best, and that elevated grain temperatures, arising because of the radiative inefficiency of the smallest grains, probably contribute to the steepness. By converting our constraint on particle sizes into a form that is independent of the uncertain size distribution, we determine that particles with radii greater than ten centimetres, whose orbits do not decay appreciably inward over 4.5 billion years, contribute at most about ten per cent to the cross-sectional area of the ring's dusty component.

  15. A Well-Known But Still Surprising Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haugland, Ole Anton

    2014-12-01

    The bicycle generator is often mentioned as an example of a method to produce electric energy. It is cheap and easily accessible, so it is a natural example to use in teaching. There are different types, but I prefer the old side-wall dynamo. The most common explanation of its working principle seems to be something like the illustration in Fig. 1. The illustration is taken from a popular textbook in the Norwegian junior high school.1 Typically it is explained as a system of a moving magnet or coils that directly results in a varying magnetic field through the coils. According to Faraday's law a voltage is induced in the coils. Simple and easy! A few times I have had a chance to glimpse into a bicycle generator, and I was somewhat surprised to sense that the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil. How could the flux through the coil change and induce a voltage when the magnet rotated parallel to the turns of the coil? When teaching electromagnetic induction I have showed the students a dismantled generator and asked them how this could work. They naturally found that this was more difficult to understand than the principle illustrated in Fig. 1. Other authors in this journal have discussed even more challenging questions concerning electric generators.2,3

  16. Tetrasomic Recombination Is Surprisingly Frequent in Allotetraploid Arachis

    PubMed Central

    Leal-Bertioli, Soraya; Shirasawa, Kenta; Abernathy, Brian; Moretzsohn, Marcio; Chavarro, Carolina; Clevenger, Josh; Ozias-Akins, Peggy; Jackson, Scott; Bertioli, David

    2015-01-01

    Arachis hypogaea L. (cultivated peanut) is an allotetraploid (2n = 4x = 40) with an AABB genome type. Based on cytogenetic studies it has been assumed that peanut and wild-derived induced AABB allotetraploids have classic allotetraploid genetic behavior with diploid-like disomic recombination only between homologous chromosomes, at the exclusion of recombination between homeologous chromosomes. Using this assumption, numerous linkage map and quantitative trait loci studies have been carried out. Here, with a systematic analysis of genotyping and gene expression data, we show that this assumption is not entirely valid. In fact, autotetraploid-like tetrasomic recombination is surprisingly frequent in recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of cultivated peanut and an induced allotetraploid derived from peanut’s most probable ancestral species. We suggest that a better, more predictive genetic model for peanut is that of a “segmental allotetraploid” with partly disomic, partly tetrasomic genetic behavior. This intermediate genetic behavior has probably had a previously overseen, but significant, impact on the genome and genetics of cultivated peanut. PMID:25701284

  17. Surprising connections: the diverse world of magnetic resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Callaghan, Paul

    2004-10-01

    When Rutherford discovered the atomic nucleus he could not possibly have imagined that it might be a window to understanding molecular biology, or how the brain works. And yet so it has come to pass. It is the through the magnetism of the nucleus that these insights, and so much more, are possible. The phenomenon of ``Nuclear Magnetic Resonance'' has proven an essential tool in physics, it has revolutionised chemistry and biochemistry, it has made astonishing contributions to medicine, and is now making an impact in geophysics, chemical engineering and food technology. It is even finding applications in new security technologies and in testing fundamental ideas concerning quantum computing. But the story of Magnetic Resonance is much more than the application of a well-established method to new areas of science. The technique itself continues to evolve. Magnetic Resonance has now garnered 6 Nobel prizes, two of them in the last two years. For a technique that has been around for nearly 60 years, it is really quite extraordinary that such accolades are still being given to new developments in the methodology. This talk will explain why the nuclear spin is so ubiquitous and interdisciplinary, and so rich in its fundamental physics. It will illustrate how unpredictable and surprising are the consequences of a major scientific discovery. For funding agencies determined to direct research activities towards predicted benefits, the conclusion drawn may provide a salutary lesson.

  18. Surprisingly Rapid Orbital Evolution: A Compendium of Solar Type Binaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samec, Ronald George

    2015-08-01

    Solar type binaries are believed to be undergoing steady but slow angular momentum losses due to magnetic braking (Réville et al. 2015, Jiang et al. 2014) as stellar winds leave radially away on semi-rigid (out to the Alfvén radius) bipolar field lines: There is an outward radial flow of ions along the rotating magnetic fields. This is happening simultaneously as the gravitationally locked binary rotates about its center of mass. The stream of ions spiral outward resulting in a resistant torque, causing a decay in the orbital radius along with a period decrease due to Kepler’s laws. My past studies have included more than 25 binaries that appear to be undergoing magnetic braking. I have extended the number of systems to 75+ in this group by perusing the literature of modern precision synthetic light curve studies. Several interesting facts arise including their surprisingly rapid orbital evolution, much faster than would be suggested by the theory. Further results are presented in this study.

  19. Endosymbiont evolution: predictions from theory and surprises from genomes.

    PubMed

    Wernegreen, Jennifer J

    2015-12-01

    Genome data have created new opportunities to untangle evolutionary processes shaping microbial variation. Among bacteria, long-term mutualists of insects represent the smallest and (typically) most AT-rich genomes. Evolutionary theory provides a context to predict how an endosymbiotic lifestyle may alter fundamental evolutionary processes--mutation, selection, genetic drift, and recombination--and thus contribute to extreme genomic outcomes. These predictions can then be explored by comparing evolutionary rates, genome size and stability, and base compositional biases across endosymbiotic and free-living bacteria. Recent surprises from such comparisons include genome reduction among uncultured, free-living species. Some studies suggest that selection generally drives this streamlining, while drift drives genome reduction in endosymbionts; however, this remains an hypothesis requiring additional data. Unexpected evidence of selection acting on endosymbiont GC content hints that even weak selection may be effective in some long-term mutualists. Moving forward, intraspecific analysis offers a promising approach to distinguish underlying mechanisms, by testing the null hypothesis of neutrality and by quantifying mutational spectra. Such analyses may clarify whether endosymbionts and free-living bacteria occupy distinct evolutionary trajectories or, alternatively, represent varied outcomes of similar underlying forces. PMID:25866055

  20. Nematode Sodium Calcium Exchangers: A Surprising Lack of Transport

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Vishal; O’Halloran, Damien M.

    2016-01-01

    Na+/Ca2+ exchangers are low-affinity, high-capacity transporters that rapidly transport calcium against a gradient of Na+ ions. Na+/Ca2+ exchangers are divided into three groups based upon substrate specificity: Na+/Ca2+ exchangers (NCX), Na+/Ca2+/K+ exchangers (NCKX), and Ca2+/cation exchangers (NCLX). In mammals, there are three NCX genes, five NCKX genes, and a single NCLX gene. The genome of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans contains 10 Na+/Ca2+ exchanger genes: three NCX, five NCLX, and two NCKX genes. In a previous study, we characterized the structural and taxonomic specializations within the family of Na+/Ca2+ exchangers across the phylum Nematoda and observed a complex picture of Na+/Ca2+ exchanger evolution across diverse nematode species. We noted multiple cases of putative gene gain and loss and, most surprisingly, did not detect members of the NCLX type of exchangers within subsets of nematode species. In this commentary, we discuss these findings and speculate on the functional outcomes and physiology of these observations. Our data highlight the importance of studying diverse systems in order to get a deeper understanding of the evolution and regulation of Ca2+ signaling critical for animal function. PMID:26848260

  1. How microorganisms avoid phagocyte attraction.

    PubMed

    Bestebroer, Jovanka; De Haas, Carla J C; Van Strijp, Jos A G

    2010-05-01

    Microorganisms have developed several mechanisms to modulate the host immune system to increase their survival and propagation in the host. Their presence in the host is not only revealed by self-produced peptides but also through host-derived chemokines and active complement fragments. These so-called chemoattractants are recognized by G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) expressed on leukocyte cell membranes. Activation of GPCRs triggers leukocyte activation and guides their recruitment to the site of infection. Therefore, GPCRs play a central role in leukocyte trafficking leading to microbial clearance. It is therefore not surprising that microorganisms are able to sabotage this arm of the immune response. Different microorganisms have evolved a variety of tactics to modulate GPCR activation. Here, we review the mechanisms and proteins used by major human pathogens and less virulent microorganisms that affect GPCR signaling. While viruses generally produce receptor and chemoattractant mimics, parasites and bacteria such as Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Bordetella pertussis secrete proteins that affect receptor signaling, directly antagonize receptors, cleave stimuli, and even prevent stimulus generation. As the large arsenal of GPCR modulators aids prolonged microbial persistence in the host, their study provides us a better understanding of microbial pathogenesis. PMID:20059549

  2. Mcl-1-Bim complexes accommodate surprising point mutations via minor structural changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fire, Emiko; Gullá, Stefano V.; Grant, Robert A.; Keating, Amy E.

    2010-06-25

    Mcl-1 is an antiapoptotic Bcl-2-family protein that protects cells against death. Structures of Mcl-1, and of other anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, reveal a surface groove into which the {alpha}-helical BH3 regions of certain proapoptotic proteins can bind. Despite high overall structural conservation, differences in this groove afford binding specificity that is important for the mechanism of Bcl-2 family function. We report the crystal structure of human Mcl-1 bound to a BH3 peptide derived from human Bim and the structures for three complexes that accommodate large physicochemical changes at conserved Bim sites. The mutations had surprisingly modest effects on complex stability, and the structures show that Mcl-1 can undergo small changes to accommodate the mutant ligands. For example, a shift in a leucine side chain fills a hole left by an isoleucine-to-alanine mutation at the first hydrophobic buried position of Bim BH3. Larger changes are also observed, with shifting of helix {alpha}3 accommodating an isoleucine-to-tyrosine mutation at this same position. We surveyed the variation in available Mcl-1 and Bcl-x{sub L} structures and observed moderate flexibility that is likely critical for facilitating interactions of diverse BH3-only proteins with Mcl-1. With the antiapoptotic Bcl-2 family members attracting significant attention as therapeutic targets, these structures contribute to our growing understanding of how specificity is achieved and can help to guide the design of novel inhibitors that target Mcl-1.

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning.

    PubMed

    Choi, Jaedeug; Kim, Kee-Eung

    2015-04-01

    Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is the problem of inferring the underlying reward function from the expert's behavior data. The difficulty in IRL mainly arises in choosing the best reward function since there are typically an infinite number of reward functions that yield the given behavior data as optimal. Another difficulty comes from the noisy behavior data due to sub-optimal experts. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework, which subsumes most of the previous IRL algorithms as well as models the sub-optimality of the expert's behavior. Using a number of experiments on a synthetic problem, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach including the robustness of our hierarchical Bayesian framework to the sub-optimal expert behavior data. Using a real dataset from taxi GPS traces, we additionally show that our approach predicts the driving behavior with a high accuracy. PMID:25291805

  4. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    PubMed Central

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  5. Bayesian seismology of the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruberbauer, M.; Guenther, D. B.

    2013-06-01

    We perform a Bayesian grid-based analysis of the solar l = 0, 1, 2 and 3 p modes obtained via BiSON in order to deliver the first Bayesian asteroseismic analysis of the solar composition problem. We do not find decisive evidence to prefer either of the contending chemical compositions, although the revised solar abundances (AGSS09) are more probable in general. We do find indications for systematic problems in standard stellar evolution models, unrelated to the consequences of inadequate modelling of the outer layers on the higher order modes. The seismic observables are best fitted by solar models that are several hundred million years older than the meteoritic age of the Sun. Similarly, meteoritic age calibrated models do not adequately reproduce the observed seismic observables. Our results suggest that these problems will affect any asteroseismic inference that relies on a calibration to the Sun.

  6. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    PubMed

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  7. Bayesian estimation of turbulent motion.

    PubMed

    Héas, Patrick; Herzet, Cédric; Mémin, Etienne; Heitz, Dominique; Mininni, Pablo D

    2013-06-01

    Based on physical laws describing the multiscale structure of turbulent flows, this paper proposes a regularizer for fluid motion estimation from an image sequence. Regularization is achieved by imposing some scale invariance property between histograms of motion increments computed at different scales. By reformulating this problem from a Bayesian perspective, an algorithm is proposed to jointly estimate motion, regularization hyperparameters, and to select the most likely physical prior among a set of models. Hyperparameter and model inference are conducted by posterior maximization, obtained by marginalizing out non--Gaussian motion variables. The Bayesian estimator is assessed on several image sequences depicting synthetic and real turbulent fluid flows. Results obtained with the proposed approach exceed the state-of-the-art results in fluid flow estimation. PMID:23599051

  8. Extreme dry spells: Problem of rounding and Bayesian solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cindric Kalin, Ksenija; Pasaric, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    Two theoretically justified models of extremes are applied to dry spell (DS) series: The generalized Pareto distribution is applied to peak-over-threshold data (POT-GP), and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution is applied to the annual maxima (AM-GEV). DS data are categorized according to three precipitation-per-day thresholds (1, 5 and 10 mm). The well-known classical methods for parameter estimation (L-moments and Maximum Likelihood) are applied both to measured and to simulated DS time series. When applied within the GEV model, both methods yield very similar results. Somewhat surprisingly, in the case of the GP model, these methods lead to substantially different estimates of parameters, as well as return values. This is found to be a consequence of the fact that DS values are recorded discretely as a whole number of days, whereas the classical extreme value distributions are intended for continuous data. The inference is further evaluated within the Bayesian paradigm, where the process of rounding can be incorporated in a straightforward manner. The study confirmed precautionary estimations when applying the AM-GEV model in comparison with the simpler AM-Gumbel model. Regarding POT-GP modelling, the Bayesian approach reveals a high uncertainty that can occur in parameter estimations when very high thresholds are considered. It is found that there are no clear criteria in the assessment of some optimal threshold, nor is there a necessity for its detection. Instead, Bayesian inference provides a reasonable overall picture of the range of thresholds compatible with the GP-model. Furthermore, it is concluded that when using rounded data, all three GP parameters should be assessed. The location estimates should be compatible with the theoretical value of 0.5. Although the present study is performed mainly on the DS series from two stations in Croatia spanning the period of 1961-2010, the authors believe that the methodology developed here is applicable to

  9. Bayesian kinematic earthquake source models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Simons, M.; Beck, J. L.; Genrich, J. F.; Galetzka, J. E.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Comte, D.; Glass, B.; Leiva, C.; Ortega, F. H.

    2009-12-01

    Most coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic slip models are based on highly regularized optimizations which yield one solution which satisfies the data given a particular set of regularizing constraints. This regularization hampers our ability to answer basic questions such as whether seismic and aseismic slip overlap or instead rupture separate portions of the fault zone. We present a Bayesian methodology for generating kinematic earthquake source models with a focus on large subduction zone earthquakes. Unlike classical optimization approaches, Bayesian techniques sample the ensemble of all acceptable models presented as an a posteriori probability density function (PDF), and thus we can explore the entire solution space to determine, for example, which model parameters are well determined and which are not, or what is the likelihood that two slip distributions overlap in space. Bayesian sampling also has the advantage that all a priori knowledge of the source process can be used to mold the a posteriori ensemble of models. Although very powerful, Bayesian methods have up to now been of limited use in geophysical modeling because they are only computationally feasible for problems with a small number of free parameters due to what is called the "curse of dimensionality." However, our methodology can successfully sample solution spaces of many hundreds of parameters, which is sufficient to produce finite fault kinematic earthquake models. Our algorithm is a modification of the tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo (tempered MCMC or TMCMC) method. In our algorithm, we sample a "tempered" a posteriori PDF using many MCMC simulations running in parallel and evolutionary computation in which models which fit the data poorly are preferentially eliminated in favor of models which better predict the data. We present results for both synthetic test problems as well as for the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla, Chile earthquake, the latter of which is constrained by InSAR, local high

  10. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  11. Frequentist tests for Bayesian models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucy, L. B.

    2016-04-01

    Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical parameters, when the first experiment provides the prior for the second. In a related analysis, a quantitative measure is derived for judging the degree of tension between two different experiments with partially overlapping parameter vectors.

  12. Elements of Bayesian experimental design

    SciTech Connect

    Sivia, D.S.

    1997-09-01

    We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.

  13. Exponential tilting in Bayesian asymptotics

    PubMed Central

    Kharroubi, S. A.; Sweeting, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    We use exponential tilting to obtain versions of asymptotic formulae for Bayesian computation that do not involve conditional maxima of the likelihood function, yielding a more stable computational procedure and significantly reducing computational time. In particular we present an alternative version of the Laplace approximation for a marginal posterior density. Implementation of the asymptotic formulae and a modified signed root based importance sampler are illustrated with an example. PMID:27279661

  14. Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadpour, Adel; Féron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2004-11-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.

  15. Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

    SciTech Connect

    Marsainy, T. Mart, T.

    2014-09-25

    We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

  16. Human amygdala response to dynamic facial expressions of positive and negative surprise.

    PubMed

    Vrticka, Pascal; Lordier, Lara; Bediou, Benoît; Sander, David

    2014-02-01

    Although brain imaging evidence accumulates to suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in the processing of novel stimuli, only little is known about its role in processing expressed novelty conveyed by surprised faces, and even less about possible interactive encoding of novelty and valence. Those investigations that have already probed human amygdala involvement in the processing of surprised facial expressions either used static pictures displaying negative surprise (as contained in fear) or "neutral" surprise, and manipulated valence by contextually priming or subjectively associating static surprise with either negative or positive information. Therefore, it still remains unresolved how the human amygdala differentially processes dynamic surprised facial expressions displaying either positive or negative surprise. Here, we created new artificial dynamic 3-dimensional facial expressions conveying surprise with an intrinsic positive (wonderment) or negative (fear) connotation, but also intrinsic positive (joy) or negative (anxiety) emotions not containing any surprise, in addition to neutral facial displays either containing ("typical surprise" expression) or not containing ("neutral") surprise. Results showed heightened amygdala activity to faces containing positive (vs. negative) surprise, which may either correspond to a specific wonderment effect as such, or to the computation of a negative expected value prediction error. Findings are discussed in the light of data obtained from a closely matched nonsocial lottery task, which revealed overlapping activity within the left amygdala to unexpected positive outcomes. PMID:24219397

  17. Bayesian second law of thermodynamics.

    PubMed

    Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason

    2016-08-01

    We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ)+〈Q〉_{F|m}≥0, where ΔH(ρ_{m},ρ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρ_{m} and 〈Q〉_{F|m} is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples. PMID:27627241

  18. Bayesian second law of thermodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolotta, Anthony; Carroll, Sean M.; Leichenauer, Stefan; Pollack, Jason

    2016-08-01

    We derive a generalization of the second law of thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian second law can be written as Δ H (ρm,ρ ) + F |m≥0 , where Δ H (ρm,ρ ) is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution ρ and the measurement-updated distribution ρm and F |m is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the system. We also derive refined versions of the second law that bound the entropy increase from below by a non-negative number, as well as Bayesian versions of integral fluctuation theorems. We demonstrate the formalism using simple analytical and numerical examples.

  19. Bayesian Phylogeography Finds Its Roots

    PubMed Central

    Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Drummond, Alexei J.; Suchard, Marc A.

    2009-01-01

    As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms. PMID:19779555

  20. Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

    2014-03-01

    Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

  1. Molecular attraction of condensed bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derjaguin, B. V.; Abrikosova, I. I.; Lifshitz, E. M.

    2015-09-01

    From the Editorial Board. As a contribution to commemorating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz, it was found appropriate by the Editorial Board of Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk (UFN) [Physics-Uspekhi] journal that the materials of the jubilee-associated Scientific Session of the Physical Sciences Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences published in this issue (pp. 877-905) be augmented by the review paper "Molecular attraction of condensed bodies" reproduced from a 1958 UFN issue. Included in this review, in addition to an account by Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz of his theory of molecular attractive forces between condensed bodies (first published in Zhurnal Eksperimental'noi i Teoreticheskoi Fiziki (ZhETF) in 1955 and in its English translation Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Physics (JETP) in 1956), is a summary of a series of experimental studies beginning in 1949 by Irina Igorevna Abrikosova at the Institute of Physical Chemistry of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR in a laboratory led by Boris Vladimirovich Derjaguin (1902-1994), a Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1958, however, UFN was not yet available in English translation, so the material of the review is insufficiently accessible to the present-day English-speaking reader. This is the reason why the UFN Editorial Board decided to contribute to celebrating the 100th anniversary of E M Lifshitz's birthday by reproducing on the journal's pages a 1958 review paper which contains both E M Lifshitz's theory itself and the experimental data that underpinned it (for an account of how Evgenii Mikhailovich Lifshitz was enlisted to explain the experimental results of I I Abrikosova and B V Derjaguin, see the letter to the editors N P Danilova on page 925 of this jubilee collection of publications).

  2. Interpersonal Congruency, Attitude Similarity, and Interpersonal Attraction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Touhey, John C.

    1975-01-01

    As no experimental study has examined the effects of congruency on attraction, the present investigation orthogonally varied attitude similarity and interpersonal congruency in order to compare the two independent variables as determinants of interpersonal attraction. (Author/RK)

  3. Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F

    2012-03-01

    Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation. PMID:21775236

  4. Variational bayesian method of estimating variance components.

    PubMed

    Arakawa, Aisaku; Taniguchi, Masaaki; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mikawa, Satoshi

    2016-07-01

    We developed a Bayesian analysis approach by using a variational inference method, a so-called variational Bayesian method, to determine the posterior distributions of variance components. This variational Bayesian method and an alternative Bayesian method using Gibbs sampling were compared in estimating genetic and residual variance components from both simulated data and publically available real pig data. In the simulated data set, we observed strong bias toward overestimation of genetic variance for the variational Bayesian method in the case of low heritability and low population size, and less bias was detected with larger population sizes in both methods examined. The differences in the estimates of variance components between the variational Bayesian and the Gibbs sampling were not found in the real pig data. However, the posterior distributions of the variance components obtained with the variational Bayesian method had shorter tails than those obtained with the Gibbs sampling. Consequently, the posterior standard deviations of the genetic and residual variances of the variational Bayesian method were lower than those of the method using Gibbs sampling. The computing time required was much shorter with the variational Bayesian method than with the method using Gibbs sampling. PMID:26877207

  5. Optimizing Inequality Constrained Priors in Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Dawn E.

    2005-11-01

    Intelligent systems based on Bayesian networks have been successful in medical diagnosis, finance and many other areas. Updating probabilities in Bayesian networks relies on algorithms that require complete causal information. Sensitivity analysis now strongly indicates that probabilities in Bayesian networks are not robust and this reinforces the view that a sound theoretical model for finding a minimally prejudiced estimate of the prior distribution is desirable. In this paper we are concerned with how to find the optimum prior distribution, given all and only the knowledge available. In particular, we show how to integrate prior knowledge expressed in terms of inequality constraints, into a Bayesian network based intelligent system.

  6. Attribution, the Attractiveness Stereotype, and the Elderly.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Douglas F.; Pittenger, John B.

    1984-01-01

    Tests the applicability of the physical attractiveness stereotype to perceptions of the elderly. In the first study, college-age and elderly observers rated the attractiveness of faces of elderly people. In the second study, subjects rated faces at three levels of attractiveness on personality, success in life experiences, and occupational…

  7. A group's physical attractiveness is greater than the average attractiveness of its members: the group attractiveness effect.

    PubMed

    van Osch, Yvette; Blanken, Irene; Meijs, Maartje H J; van Wolferen, Job

    2015-04-01

    We tested whether the perceived physical attractiveness of a group is greater than the average attractiveness of its members. In nine studies, we find evidence for the so-called group attractiveness effect (GA-effect), using female, male, and mixed-gender groups, indicating that group impressions of physical attractiveness are more positive than the average ratings of the group members. A meta-analysis on 33 comparisons reveals that the effect is medium to large (Cohen's d = 0.60) and moderated by group size. We explored two explanations for the GA-effect: (a) selective attention to attractive group members, and (b) the Gestalt principle of similarity. The results of our studies are in favor of the selective attention account: People selectively attend to the most attractive members of a group and their attractiveness has a greater influence on the evaluation of the group. PMID:25733515

  8. Volcanic Plumes on Io: Old Friends and Recent Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McEwen, A. S.

    2002-05-01

    One of the most spectacular phenomena on Io are the active volcanic plumes. Nine plumes were observed during the Voyager 1 encounter in 1979: Pele (300 km high), Loki (150 km; 2 plumes), and 6 smaller "Prometheus-type" plumes. When Voyager 2 imaged Io 4 months later, all of the these plumes were detected except Pele, and there were two new large red plume deposits (Surt and Aten) similar to the deposits of Pele. These 2 new plume vents were at relatively high latitudes (45N and 48S) whereas the others were more equatorial. Galileo observed a total of 10 plumes prior to 2000, 4 of which were erupting from the same volcanic complexes as in 1979, so there was a total of 15 volcanic centers with observed plumes, all equatorial except Masubi at 44S. We found that Prometheus-type plumes wander, apparently erupting from rootless vents where silicate lava flows over volatile-rich ground. Red deposits, on the other hand, seem to mark the deep vents for silicate lava. Galileo and HST also showed that Pele is normally detectable only at UV wavelengths or at very high phase angles, and was in an anomalous state during the Voyager 1 encounter. The only good candidate for a "stealth" SO2 gas plume visible only in eclipse was seen over Acala, although some Prometheus-type plumes appeared much larger in eclipse. The existence of many much smaller plumes was predicted from Voyager observations of bright streaks radial to Pele, but Galileo has not confirmed this hypothesis. From the joint Galileo-Cassini observations within a few days of Jan 1, 2001 we were surprised to see a giant new plume (400 km high) over Tvashtar Catena (63 N) with UV color properties and a 1200-km diameter red plume deposit, both very similar to Pele. In the I31 flyby (August 2001) Galileo flew through the region occupied by the Tvashtar plume 7 months earlier. The images did not detect a plume, but SO2 may have been detected by the plasma science experiment. However, the images did reveal a giant (500 km

  9. AO 0235+164 and Surrounding Field: Surprising HST Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burbidge, E. M.; Beaver, E. A.; Cohen, Ross D.; Junkkarinen, V. T.; Lyons, R. W.

    1996-01-01

    Results obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope on the highly variable radio, x-ray, and gamma-ray emitting QSO (or BL Lac object) AO 0235 + 164 are presented and analyzed. WFPC2 images were obtained in 1994 June, when AO 0235 + 164 was bright (m approx. 17), and the results are described in Sec. 3. After subtraction of the PSF of the QSO, hereafter called AO following the nomenclature of Yanny et al. (1989), the companion object named A, 2 sec south of AO, is discovered not to be an elliptical galaxy as hypothesized earlier, but to be an AGN object, with a central UV-bright point-source nucleus and faint surrounding nebulosity extending to AO. The second companion object 1.3 sec east of AO discovered by Yanny et al. (1989) and named object Al, appears more like a normal spiral galaxy. We have measured the positions, luminosities, and colors of some 30 faint objects in the field around AO 0235 + 16; most are extended and may be star-forming galaxies in a loose group or cluster. Our most surprising result of the HST observations comes from FOS spectra obtained in 1995 July, discussed in Sec. 4. Because of a positioning error of the telescope and AO's faintness at that time (m approx. 20), object A was observed instead of the intended target AO. Serendipitously, we discovered A to have broad deep BALQSO-type absorptions of C IV, Si IV, N V shortward of broad emissions. A is thus ejecting high velocity, highly ionized gas into the surrounding IGM. We discuss in Sec. 5 the relationship of the objects in the central 10 sec X 1O sec region around AO, where redshifts z(sub e) = 0.94, z(sub a) = 0.524, 0.851 in AO, (sub e) = 0.524 and Z(sub BAL)=0.511 in A, are found. We hypothesize that some of the 30 faint objects in the 77 sec. x 77 sec. field may be part of a large star-forming region at z approx. 0.5, as suggested for a few objects by Yanny et al. (1989). The proximity of two highly active extragalactic objects, AO 0235+164 and its AGN companion A, is remarkable and

  10. High Heels Increase Women's Attractiveness.

    PubMed

    Guéguen, Nicolas

    2015-11-01

    Research has found that the appearance of women's apparel helps increase their attractiveness as rated by men and that men care more about physical features in potential opposite-sex mates. However, the effect of sartorial appearance has received little interest from scientists. In a series of studies, the length of women's shoe heels was examined. A woman confederate wearing black shoes with 0, 5, or 9 cm heels asked men for help in various circumstances. In Study 1, she asked men to respond to a short survey on gender equality. In Study 2, the confederate asked men and women to participate in a survey on local food habit consumption. In Study 3, men and women in the street were observed while walking in back of the female confederate who dropped a glove apparently unaware of her loss. It was found that men's helping behavior increased as soon as heel length increased. However, heel length had no effect on women's helping behavior. It was also found that men spontaneously approached women more quickly when they wore high-heeled shoes (Study 4). Change in gait, foot-size judgment, and misattribution of sexiness and sexual intent were used as possible explanations. PMID:25408499

  11. Attracting Girls into Physics (abstract)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadalla, Afaf

    2009-04-01

    A recent international study of women in physics showed that enrollment in physics and science is declining for both males and females and that women are severely underrepresented in careers requiring a strong physics background. The gender gap begins early in the pipeline, from the first grade. Girls are treated differently than boys at home and in society in ways that often hinder their chances for success. They have fewer freedoms, are discouraged from accessing resources or being adventurous, have far less exposure to problem solving, and are not encouraged to choose their lives. In order to motivate more girl students to study physics in the Assiut governorate of Egypt, the Assiut Alliance for the Women and Assiut Education District collaborated in renovating the education of physics in middle and secondary school classrooms. A program that helps in increasing the number of girls in science and physics has been designed in which informal groupings are organized at middle and secondary schools to involve girls in the training and experiences needed to attract and encourage girls to learn physics. During implementation of the program at some schools, girls, because they had not been trained in problem-solving as boys, appeared not to be as facile in abstracting the ideas of physics, and that was the primary reason for girls dropping out of science and physics. This could be overcome by holding a topical physics and technology summer school under the supervision of the Assiut Alliance for the Women.

  12. Stars Form Surprisingly Close to Milky Way's Black Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2005-10-01

    The supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way has surprisingly helped spawn a new generation of stars, according to observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory. This novel mode of star formation may solve several mysteries about the supermassive black holes that reside at the centers of nearly all galaxies. "Massive black holes are usually known for violence and destruction," said Sergei Nayakshin of the University of Leicester, United Kingdom, and coauthor of a paper on this research in an upcoming issue of the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. "So it's remarkable that this black hole helped create new stars, not just destroy them." Black holes have earned their fearsome reputation because any material -- including stars -- that falls within the so-called event horizon is never seen again. However, these new results indicate that the immense disks of gas known to orbit many black holes at a "safe" distance from the event horizon can help nurture the formation of new stars. Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole Animation of Stars Forming Around Black Hole This conclusion came from new clues that could only be revealed in X-rays. Until the latest Chandra results, astronomers have disagreed about the origin of a mysterious group of massive stars discovered by infrared astronomers to be orbiting less than a light year from the Milky Way's central black hole, a.k.a. Sagittarius A*, or Sgr A*. At such close distances to Sgr A*, the standard model for star formation predicts that gas clouds from which stars form should have been ripped apart by tidal forces from the black hole. Two models to explain this puzzle have been proposed. In the disk model, the gravity of a dense disk of gas around Sgr A* offsets the tidal forces and allows stars to form; in the migration model, the stars formed in a star cluster far away from the black hole and migrated in to form the ring of massive stars. The migration scenario predicts about a

  13. Effects of Instructor Attractiveness on Learning.

    PubMed

    Westfall, Richard; Millar, Murray; Walsh, Mandy

    2016-01-01

    Although a considerable body of research has examined the impact of student attractiveness on instructors, little attention has been given to the influence of instructor attractiveness on students. This study tested the hypothesis that persons would perform significantly better on a learning task when they perceived their instructor to be high in physical attractiveness. To test the hypothesis, participants listened to an audio lecture while viewing a photograph of instructor. The photograph depicted either a physically attractive instructor or a less attractive instructor. Following the lecture, participants completed a forced choice recognition task covering material from the lecture. Consistent with the predictions; attractive instructors were associated with more learning. Finally, we replicated previous findings demonstrating the role attractiveness plays in person perception. PMID:27410051

  14. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

  15. Software For Multivariate Bayesian Classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saul, Ronald; Laird, Philip; Shelton, Robert

    1996-01-01

    PHD general-purpose classifier computer program. Uses Bayesian methods to classify vectors of real numbers, based on combination of statistical techniques that include multivariate density estimation, Parzen density kernels, and EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm. By means of simple graphical interface, user trains classifier to recognize two or more classes of data and then use it to identify new data. Written in ANSI C for Unix systems and optimized for online classification applications. Embedded in another program, or runs by itself using simple graphical-user-interface. Online help files makes program easy to use.

  16. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  17. Carbon Dioxide: Surprising Effects on Decision Making and Neurocognitive Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, John T.

    2013-01-01

    The occupants of modern submarines and the International Space Station (ISS) have much in common as far as their air quality is concerned. Air is polluted by materials offgassing, use of utility compounds, leaks of systems chemicals, and anthropogenic sources. The primary anthropogenic compound of concern to submariners and astronauts has been carbon dioxide (CO2). NASA and the US Navy rely on the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology (NRC-COT) to help formulate exposure levels to CO2 that are thought to be safe for exposures of 3-6 months. NASA calls its limits Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs). Years of experience aboard the ISS and a recent publication on deficits in decision making in ground-based subjects exposed briefly to 0.25% CO2 suggest that exposure levels that have been presumed acceptable to preserve health and performance need to be reevaluated. The current CO2 exposure limits for 3-6 months set by NASA and the UK Navy are 0.7%, and the limit for US submariners is 0.5%, although the NRC-COT recommended a 90-day level of 0.8% as safe a few years ago. NASA has set a 1000-day SMAC at 0.5% for exploration-class missions. Anecdotal experience with ISS operations approaching the current 180-day SMAC of 0.7% suggest that this limit is too high. Temporarily, NASA has limited exposures to 0.5% until further peer-reviewed data become available. In the meantime, a study published last year in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives (Satish U, et al. 2012) demonstrated that complexdecision- making performance is somewhat affected at 0.1% CO2 and becomes "dysfunctional" for at least half of the 9 indices of performance at concentrations approaching 0.25% CO2. The investigators used the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) method of testing for decisionmaking ability, and the results were so surprising to the investigators that they declared that their findings need to be independently confirmed. NASA has responded to the

  18. Eruption Forecasting: Success and Surprise at Kasatochi and Okmok Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prejean, S.; Power, J.; Brodsky, E.

    2008-12-01

    seismic network on Kasatochi Island. Unlike Kasatochi, Okmok volcano, also located in the central Aleutian Islands, hosts 13 telemetered seismic stations and several telemetered GPS stations. The volcano has received considerable study by AVO, and the record of historical eruptions is well known. Despite regular scrutiny of Okmok data, the 2008 eruption was a surprise as there were fewer than 3 hours of clear pre-eruptive seismicity. The color code/alert level at Okmok went directly from Green/Normal to Red/Warning on July 12 after eruptive activity began. Interpretation of co-eruptive seismicity remained a challenge through the course of the eruption as bursts of volcanic tremor often did not correlate immediately with ash output at the vent as observed in satellite data.

  19. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  20. The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2007-01-01

    This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

  1. Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay

    2005-01-01

    The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.

  2. Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

  3. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  4. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  5. Miscalibrations in judgements of attractiveness with cosmetics.

    PubMed

    Jones, Alex L; Kramer, Robin S S; Ward, Robert

    2014-10-01

    Women use cosmetics to enhance their attractiveness. How successful they are in doing so remains unknown--how do men and women respond to cosmetics use in terms of attractiveness? There are a variety of miscalibrations where attractiveness is concerned--often, what one sex thinks the opposite sex finds attractive is incorrect. Here, we investigated observer perceptions about attractiveness and cosmetics, as well as their understanding of what others would find attractive. We used computer graphic techniques to allow observers to vary the amount of cosmetics applied to a series of female faces. We asked observers to optimize attractiveness for themselves, for what they thought women in general would prefer, and what they thought men in general would prefer. We found that men and women agree on the amount of cosmetics they find attractive, but overestimate the preferences of women and, when considering the preferences of men, overestimate even more. We also find that models' self-applied cosmetics are far in excess of individual preferences. These findings suggest that attractiveness perceptions with cosmetics are a form of pluralistic ignorance, whereby women tailor their cosmetics use to an inaccurate perception of others' preferences. These findings also highlight further miscalibrations of attractiveness ideals. PMID:24670156

  6. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M.; Pyper, Cecilia

    2016-01-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple’s biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  7. Metaproteomics of cellulose methanisation under thermophilic conditions reveals a surprisingly high proteolytic activity

    PubMed Central

    Lü, Fan; Bize, Ariane; Guillot, Alain; Monnet, Véronique; Madigou, Céline; Chapleur, Olivier; Mazéas, Laurent; He, Pinjing; Bouchez, Théodore

    2014-01-01

    Cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on Earth. Optimising energy recovery from this renewable but recalcitrant material is a key issue. The metaproteome expressed by thermophilic communities during cellulose anaerobic digestion was investigated in microcosms. By multiplying the analytical replicates (65 protein fractions analysed by MS/MS) and relying solely on public protein databases, more than 500 non-redundant protein functions were identified. The taxonomic community structure as inferred from the metaproteomic data set was in good overall agreement with 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridisation analyses. Numerous functions related to cellulose and hemicellulose hydrolysis and fermentation catalysed by bacteria related to Caldicellulosiruptor spp. and Clostridium thermocellum were retrieved, indicating their key role in the cellulose-degradation process and also suggesting their complementary action. Despite the abundance of acetate as a major fermentation product, key methanogenesis enzymes from the acetoclastic pathway were not detected. In contrast, enzymes from the hydrogenotrophic pathway affiliated to Methanothermobacter were almost exclusively identified for methanogenesis, suggesting a syntrophic acetate oxidation process coupled to hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Isotopic analyses confirmed the high dominance of the hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Very surprising was the identification of an abundant proteolytic activity from Coprothermobacter proteolyticus strains, probably acting as scavenger and/or predator performing proteolysis and fermentation. Metaproteomics thus appeared as an efficient tool to unravel and characterise metabolic networks as well as ecological interactions during methanisation bioprocesses. More generally, metaproteomics provides direct functional insights at a limited cost, and its attractiveness should increase in the future as sequence databases are growing exponentially. PMID:23949661

  8. Surprise Discovery of Highly Developed Structure in the Young Universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2005-03-01

    ESO-VLT and ESA XMM-Newton Together Discover Earliest Massive Cluster of Galaxies Known Summary Combining observations with ESO's Very Large Telescope and ESA's XMM-Newton X-ray observatory, astronomers have discovered the most distant, very massive structure in the Universe known so far. It is a remote cluster of galaxies that is found to weigh as much as several thousand galaxies like our own Milky Way and is located no less than 9,000 million light-years away. The VLT images reveal that it contains reddish and elliptical, i.e. old, galaxies. Interestingly, the cluster itself appears to be in a very advanced state of development. It must therefore have formed when the Universe was less than one third of its present age. The discovery of such a complex and mature structure so early in the history of the Universe is highly surprising. Indeed, until recently it would even have been deemed impossible. PR Photo 05a/05: Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Netwon) PR Photo 05b/05: False Colour Image of XMMU J2235.3-2557 (FORS/VLT and ESA XMM-Newton) Serendipitous discovery ESO PR Photo 05a/05 ESO PR Photo 05a/05 Discovery X-Ray Image of the Distant Cluster (ESA XMM-Newton) [Preview - JPEG: 400 x 421 pix - 106k] [Normal - JPEG: 800 x 842 pix - 843k] [Full Res - JPEG: 2149 x 2262 pix - 2.5M] Caption: ESO PR Photo 05a/05 is a reproduction of the XMM-Newton observations of the nearby active galaxy NGC7314 (bright object in the centre) from which the newly found distant cluster (white box) was serendipitously identified. The circular field-of-view of XMM-Newton is half-a-degree in diameter, or about the same angular size as the Full Moon. The inset shows the diffuse X-ray emission from the distant cluster XMMU J2235.3-2557. Clusters of galaxies are gigantic structures containing hundreds to thousands of galaxies. They are the fundamental building blocks of the Universe and their study thus provides unique information about the underlying architecture of the

  9. Trait Anxiety Is Associated with Negative Interpretations When Resolving Valence Ambiguity of Surprised Faces

    PubMed Central

    Park, Gewnhi; Vasey, Michael W.; Kim, Grace; Hu, Dixie D.; Thayer, Julian F.

    2016-01-01

    The current research examines whether trait anxiety is associated with negative interpretation bias when resolving valence ambiguity of surprised faces. To further isolate the neuro-cognitive mechanism, we presented angry, happy, and surprised faces at broad spatial frequency (BSF), high spatial frequency (HSF), and low spatial frequency (LSF) and asked participants to determine the valence of each face. High trait anxiety was associated with more negative interpretations of BSF (i.e., intact) surprised faces. However, the modulation of trait anxiety on the negative interpretation of surprised faces disappeared at HSF and LSF. The current study provides evidence that trait anxiety modulates negative interpretations of BSF surprised faces. However, the negative interpretation of LSF surprised faces appears to be a robust default response that occurs regardless of individual differences in trait anxiety. PMID:27536266

  10. Chandra Finds Surprising Black Hole Activity In Galaxy Cluster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2002-09-01

    Scientists at the Carnegie Observatories in Pasadena, California, have uncovered six times the expected number of active, supermassive black holes in a single viewing of a cluster of galaxies, a finding that has profound implications for theories as to how old galaxies fuel the growth of their central black holes. The finding suggests that voracious, central black holes might be as common in old, red galaxies as they are in younger, blue galaxies, a surprise to many astronomers. The team made this discovery with NASA'S Chandra X-ray Observatory. They also used Carnegie's 6.5-meter Walter Baade Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile for follow-up optical observations. "This changes our view of galaxy clusters as the retirement homes for old and quiet black holes," said Dr. Paul Martini, lead author on a paper describing the results that appears in the September 10 issue of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. "The question now is, how do these black holes produce bright X-ray sources, similar to what we see from much younger galaxies?" Typical of the black hole phenomenon, the cores of these active galaxies are luminous in X-ray radiation. Yet, they are obscured, and thus essentially undetectable in the radio, infrared and optical wavebands. "X rays can penetrate obscuring gas and dust as easily as they penetrate the soft tissue of the human body to look for broken bones," said co-author Dr. Dan Kelson. "So, with Chandra, we can peer through the dust and we have found that even ancient galaxies with 10-billion-year-old stars can have central black holes still actively pulling in copious amounts of interstellar gas. This activity has simply been hidden from us all this time. This means these galaxies aren't over the hill after all and our theories need to be revised." Scientists say that supermassive black holes -- having the mass of millions to billions of suns squeezed into a region about the size of our Solar System -- are the engines in the cores of