Science.gov

Sample records for building stock modelling

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of the National Building Stock

    SciTech Connect

    Deru, M.; Field, K.; Studer, D.; Benne, K.; Griffith, B.; Torcellini, P.; Liu, B.; Halverson, M.; Winiarski, D.; Rosenberg, M.; Yazdanian, M.; Huang, J.; Crawley, D.

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Program has set the aggressive goal of producing marketable net-zero energy buildings by 2025. This goal will require collaboration between the DOE laboratories and the building industry. We developed standard or reference energy models for the most common commercial buildings to serve as starting points for energy efficiency research. These models represent fairly realistic buildings and typical construction practices. Fifteen commercial building types and one multifamily residential building were determined by consensus between DOE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and represent approximately two-thirds of the commercial building stock.

  2. Towards a Very Low Energy Building Stock: Modeling the U.S. Commercial Building Sector to Support Policy and Innovation Planning

    SciTech Connect

    Coffey, Brian; Borgeson, Sam; Selkowitz, Stephen; Apte, Josh; Mathew, Paul; Haves, Philip

    2009-07-01

    This paper describes the origin, structure and continuing development of a model of time varying energy consumption in the US commercial building stock. The model is based on a flexible structure that disaggregates the stock into various categories (e.g. by building type, climate, vintage and life-cycle stage) and assigns attributes to each of these (e.g. floor area and energy use intensity by fuel type and end use), based on historical data and user-defined scenarios for future projections. In addition to supporting the interactive exploration of building stock dynamics, the model has been used to study the likely outcomes of specific policy and innovation scenarios targeting very low future energy consumption in the building stock. Model use has highlighted the scale of the challenge of meeting targets stated by various government and professional bodies, and the importance of considering both new construction and existing buildings.

  3. Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25

    PubMed Central

    Steinberger, Julia K.; Eisenmenger, Nina; Haas, Willi

    2015-01-01

    Summary Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in‐use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business‐as‐usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the European Waste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals. PMID:27524878

  4. Energy properties in urban building stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanerva, V.; Lappalainen, M.

    Buildings in urban areas were examined for energy consumption and energy conservation potential. Oil is 75% of heating fuel. Over 30% of the overall building volume heated is served by district or regional heating. The annual consumption of heating energy in buildings fluctuates between 30 and 140 kW hr/cu m. Function, size, and maintenance patterns affect energy consumption. Interior temperature levels and ventilation account for much of the dispersion in consumption values. Older buildings consume less energy per unit volume than those erected after 1960. Buildings constructed since 1975 consume over 10% less energy than the average. It is concluded that it is possible to reduce energy consumption within cost-effective limits in urban building stock by one third during the 1980's.

  5. Evolutionary model of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaldasch, Joachim

    2014-12-01

    The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

  6. Build and Stock the Essential Tool Box

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vickers, Ron

    2013-01-01

    Last summer, the author finally acted on an idea that had been banging around in his head for the last couple of years. He decided to build his son a toolbox and equip it with the basic set of tools he'd need as a future homeowner. Thinking that other technology educators and their students might be interested in the project, the author describes…

  7. Power law models of stock indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tse, Man Kit

    Viewing the stock market as a self-organized system, Sornette and Johansen introduced physics-based models to study the dynamics of stock market crashes from the perspective of complex systems. This involved modeling stock market Indices using a mathematical power law exhibiting log-periodicity as the system approaches a market crash, which acts like a critical point in a thermodynamic system. In this dissertation, I aim to investigate stock indices to determine whether or not they exhibit log-periodic oscillations, according to the models proposed by Sornette, as they approach a crash. In addition to analyzing stock market crashes in the frequency domain using the discrete Fourier transform and the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, I perform a detailed analysis of the stock market crash models through parameter estimation and model testing. I find that the probability landscapes have a complex topography and that there is very little evidence that these phase transition-based models accurately describe stock market crashes.

  8. Building models

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, M.T.

    1995-04-01

    As developers make progress on independent power projects around the world, models for success are beginning to emerge. Different models are evolving to create ownership structures that accomoate a complex system of regulatory requirements. Other frameworks make use of previously untapped fuel resources, or establish new sources of financing; however, not all models may be applied to a given project. This article explores how developers are finding new alternatives for overcoming development challenges that are common to projects in many countries.

  9. Modeling stock markets through bosonic operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagarello, Fabio

    2008-11-01

    We review our results on a quantum-like approach recently developed in the attempt of modeling a simplified stock-market. Under suitable approximations we deduce the time evolution of the portfolio of the various traders of the market, as well as of other observable quantities.

  10. Technology Prioritization: Transforming the U.S. Building Stock to Embrace Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Abdelaziz, Omar; Farese, Philip; Abramson, Alexis; Phelan, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Buildings sector is responsible for about 40% of the national energy expenditures. This is due in part to wasteful use of resources and limited considerations made for energy efficiency during the design and retrofit phases. Recent studies have indicated the potential for up to 30-50% energy savings in the U.S. buildings sector using currently available technologies. This paper discusses efforts to accelerate the transformation in the U.S. building energy efficiency sector using a new technology prioritization framework. The underlying analysis examines building energy use micro segments using the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook and other publically available information. The tool includes a stock-and-flow model to track stock vintage and efficiency levels with time. The tool can be used to investigate energy efficiency measures under a variety of scenarios and has a built-in energy accounting framework to prevent double counting of energy savings within any given portfolio. This tool is developed to inform decision making and estimate long term potential energy savings for different market adoption scenarios.

  11. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  12. A controllable laboratory stock market for modeling real stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Kenan; Li, Xiaohui; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2013-10-01

    Based on the different research approaches, econophysics can be divided into three directions: empirical econophysics, computational econophysics, and experimental econophysics. Because empirical econophysics lacks controllability that is needed to study the impacts of different external conditions and computational econophysics has to adopt artificial decision-making processes that are often deviated from those of real humans, experimental econophysics tends to overcome these problems by offering controllability and using real humans in laboratory experiments. However, to our knowledge, the existing laboratory experiments have not convincingly reappeared the stylized facts (say, scaling) that have been revealed for real economic/financial markets by econophysicists. A most important reason is that in these experiments, discrete trading time makes these laboratory markets deviated from real markets where trading time is naturally continuous. Here we attempt to overcome this problem by designing a continuous double-auction stock-trading market and conducting several human experiments in laboratory. As an initial work, the present artificial financial market can reproduce some stylized facts related to clustering and scaling. Also, it predicts some other scaling in human behavior dynamics that is hard to achieve in real markets due to the difficulty in getting the data. Thus, it becomes possible to study real stock markets by conducting controlled experiments on such laboratory stock markets producing high frequency data.

  13. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  14. Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sjoquist, David L.; Winters, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper in the "Journal of Human Resources," Dynarski (2008) used data from the 1 percent 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files to demonstrate that merit scholarship programs in Georgia and Arkansas increased the stock of college-educated individuals in those states. This paper replicates the results in Dynarski (2008) but…

  15. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  16. SUSY GUT Model Building

    SciTech Connect

    Raby, Stuart

    2008-11-23

    In this talk I discuss the evolution of SUSY GUT model building as I see it. Starting with 4 dimensional model building, I then consider orbifold GUTs in 5 dimensions and finally orbifold GUTs embedded into the E{sub 8}xE{sub 8} heterotic string.

  17. SRVAL. Stock-Recruitment Model VALidation Code

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, S.W.

    1989-12-07

    SRVAL is a computer simulation model of the Hudson River striped bass population. It was designed to aid in assessing the validity of curve-fits of the linearized Ricker stock-recruitment model, modified to incorporate multiple-age spawners and to include an environmental variable, to variously processed annual catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) statistics for a fish population. It is sometimes asserted that curve-fits of this kind can be used to determine the sensitivity of fish populations to such man-induced stresses as entrainment and impingement at power plants. SRVAL was developed to test such assertions and was utilized in testimony written in connection with the Hudson River Power Case (U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region II).

  18. An explicit solution for calculating optimum spawning stock size from Ricker's stock recruitment model.

    PubMed

    Scheuerell, Mark D

    2016-01-01

    Stock-recruitment models have been used for decades in fisheries management as a means of formalizing the expected number of offspring that recruit to a fishery based on the number of parents. In particular, Ricker's stock recruitment model is widely used due to its flexibility and ease with which the parameters can be estimated. After model fitting, the spawning stock size that produces the maximum sustainable yield (S MSY) to a fishery, and the harvest corresponding to it (U MSY), are two of the most common biological reference points of interest to fisheries managers. However, to date there has been no explicit solution for either reference point because of the transcendental nature of the equation needed to solve for them. Therefore, numerical or statistical approximations have been used for more than 30 years. Here I provide explicit formulae for calculating both S MSY and U MSY in terms of the productivity and density-dependent parameters of Ricker's model. PMID:27004147

  19. An explicit solution for calculating optimum spawning stock size from Ricker’s stock recruitment model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Stock-recruitment models have been used for decades in fisheries management as a means of formalizing the expected number of offspring that recruit to a fishery based on the number of parents. In particular, Ricker’s stock recruitment model is widely used due to its flexibility and ease with which the parameters can be estimated. After model fitting, the spawning stock size that produces the maximum sustainable yield (SMSY) to a fishery, and the harvest corresponding to it (UMSY), are two of the most common biological reference points of interest to fisheries managers. However, to date there has been no explicit solution for either reference point because of the transcendental nature of the equation needed to solve for them. Therefore, numerical or statistical approximations have been used for more than 30 years. Here I provide explicit formulae for calculating both SMSY and UMSY in terms of the productivity and density-dependent parameters of Ricker’s model. PMID:27004147

  20. String Model Building

    SciTech Connect

    Raby, Stuart

    2010-02-10

    In this talk I review some recent progress in heterotic and F theory model building. I then consider work in progress attempting to find the F theory dual to a class of heterotic orbifold models which come quite close to the MSSM.

  1. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  2. Multilayer Stock Forecasting Model Using Fuzzy Time Series

    PubMed Central

    Javedani Sadaei, Hossein; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2014-01-01

    After reviewing the vast body of literature on using FTS in stock market forecasting, certain deficiencies are distinguished in the hybridization of findings. In addition, the lack of constructive systematic framework, which can be helpful to indicate direction of growth in entire FTS forecasting systems, is outstanding. In this study, we propose a multilayer model for stock market forecasting including five logical significant layers. Every single layer has its detailed concern to assist forecast development by reconciling certain problems exclusively. To verify the model, a set of huge data containing Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX), National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and S&P 500 have been chosen as experimental datasets. The results indicate that the proposed methodology has the potential to be accepted as a framework for model development in stock market forecasts using FTS. PMID:24605058

  3. Multilayer stock forecasting model using fuzzy time series.

    PubMed

    Javedani Sadaei, Hossein; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2014-01-01

    After reviewing the vast body of literature on using FTS in stock market forecasting, certain deficiencies are distinguished in the hybridization of findings. In addition, the lack of constructive systematic framework, which can be helpful to indicate direction of growth in entire FTS forecasting systems, is outstanding. In this study, we propose a multilayer model for stock market forecasting including five logical significant layers. Every single layer has its detailed concern to assist forecast development by reconciling certain problems exclusively. To verify the model, a set of huge data containing Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX), National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and S&P 500 have been chosen as experimental datasets. The results indicate that the proposed methodology has the potential to be accepted as a framework for model development in stock market forecasts using FTS. PMID:24605058

  4. Warm Inflation Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun

    We review the main aspects of the warm inflation scenario, focusing on the inflationary dynamics and the predictions related to the primordial spectrum of perturbations, to be compared with the recent cosmological observations. We study in detail three different classes of inflationary models, chaotic, hybrid models and hilltop models, and discuss their embedding into supersymmetric models and the consequences for model building of the warm inflationary dynamics based on first principles calculations. Due to the extra friction term introduced in the inflaton background evolution generated by the dissipative dynamics, inflation can take place generically for smaller values of the field, and larger values of couplings and masses. When the dissipative dynamics dominates over the expansion, in the so-called strong dissipative regime, inflation proceeds with sub-Planckian inflaton values. Models can be naturally embedded into a supergravity framework, with SUGRA corrections suppressed by the Planck mass now under control, for a larger class of Kähler potentials. In particular, this provides a simpler solution to the "eta" problem in supersymmetric hybrid inflation, without restricting the Kähler potentials compatible with inflation. For chaotic models dissipation leads to a smaller prediction for the tensor-to-scalar ratio and a less tilted spectrum when compared to the cold inflation scenario. We find in particular that a small component of dissipation renders the quartic model now consistent with the current CMB data.

  5. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  6. Dynamic material flow modeling: an effort to calibrate and validate aluminum stocks and flows in Austria.

    PubMed

    Buchner, Hanno; Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Fellner, Johann

    2015-05-01

    A calibrated and validated dynamic material flow model of Austrian aluminum (Al) stocks and flows between 1964 and 2012 was developed. Calibration and extensive plausibility testing was performed to illustrate how the quality of dynamic material flow analysis can be improved on the basis of the consideration of independent bottom-up estimates. According to the model, total Austrian in-use Al stocks reached a level of 360 kg/capita in 2012, with buildings (45%) and transport applications (32%) being the major in-use stocks. Old scrap generation (including export of end-of-life vehicles) amounted to 12.5 kg/capita in 2012, still being on the increase, while Al final demand has remained rather constant at around 25 kg/capita in the past few years. The application of global sensitivity analysis showed that only small parts of the total variance of old scrap generation could be explained by the variation of single parameters, emphasizing the need for comprehensive sensitivity analysis tools accounting for interaction between parameters and time-delay effects in dynamic material flow models. Overall, it was possible to generate a detailed understanding of the evolution of Al stocks and flows in Austria, including plausibility evaluations of the results. Such models constitute a reliable basis for evaluating future recycling potentials, in particular with respect to application-specific qualities of current and future national Al scrap generation and utilization. PMID:25851493

  7. Modeling the uncertainty of estimating forest carbon stocks in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, T. X.; Wang, Y. F.; Du, Z. P.; Zhao, M. W.; Zhang, L. L.; Zhao, N.; Lu, M.; Larocque, G. R.; Wilson, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Earth surface systems are controlled by a combination of global and local factors, which cannot be understood without accounting for both the local and global components. The system dynamics cannot be recovered from the global or local controls alone. Ground forest inventory is able to accurately estimate forest carbon stocks at sample plots, but these sample plots are too sparse to support the spatial simulation of carbon stocks with required accuracy. Satellite observation is an important source of global information for the simulation of carbon stocks. Satellite remote-sensing can supply spatially continuous information about the surface of forest carbon stocks, which is impossible from ground-based investigations, but their description has considerable uncertainty. In this paper, we validated the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ), the Kriging method for spatial interpolation of ground sample plots and a satellite-observation-based approach as well as an approach for fusing the ground sample plots with satellite observations and an assimilation method for incorporating the ground sample plots into LPJ. The validation results indicated that both the data fusion and data assimilation approaches reduced the uncertainty of estimating carbon stocks. The data fusion had the lowest uncertainty by using an existing method for high accuracy surface modeling to fuse the ground sample plots with the satellite observations (HASM-SOA). The estimates produced with HASM-SOA were 26.1 and 28.4 % more accurate than the satellite-based approach and spatial interpolation of the sample plots, respectively. Forest carbon stocks of 7.08 Pg were estimated for China during the period from 2004 to 2008, an increase of 2.24 Pg from 1984 to 2008, using the preferred HASM-SOA method.

  8. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    PubMed

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model. PMID:26587364

  9. A quantum mechanical model for the relationship between stock price and stock ownership

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotfas, Liviu-Adrian

    2012-11-01

    The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner. By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schrödinger type equation.

  10. A quantum mechanical model for the relationship between stock price and stock ownership

    SciTech Connect

    Cotfas, Liviu-Adrian

    2012-11-01

    The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner. By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schroedinger type equation.

  11. Building Fractal Models with Manipulatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coes, Loring

    1993-01-01

    Uses manipulative materials to build and examine geometric models that simulate the self-similarity properties of fractals. Examples are discussed in two dimensions, three dimensions, and the fractal dimension. Discusses how models can be misleading. (Contains 10 references.) (MDH)

  12. Building Mental Models by Dissecting Physical Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Srivastava, Anveshna

    2016-01-01

    When students build physical models from prefabricated components to learn about model systems, there is an implicit trade-off between the physical degrees of freedom in building the model and the intensity of instructor supervision needed. Models that are too flexible, permitting multiple possible constructions require greater supervision to…

  13. Generalized Bogoliubov Polariton Model: An Application to Stock Exchange Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thuy Anh, Chu; Anh, Truong Thi Ngoc; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai

    2016-06-01

    A generalized Bogoliubov method for investigation non-simple and complex systems was developed. We take two branch polariton Hamiltonian model in second quantization representation and replace the energies of quasi-particles by two distribution functions of research objects. Application to stock exchange market was taken as an example, where the changing the form of return distribution functions from Boltzmann-like to Gaussian-like was studied.

  14. Jeddah Historical Building Information Modeling "JHBIM" Old Jeddah - Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baik, A.; Boehm, J.; Robson, S.

    2013-07-01

    The historic city of Jeddah faces serious issues in the conservation, documentation and recording of its valuable building stock. Terrestrial Laser Scanning and Architectural Photogrammetry have already been used in many Heritage sites in the world. The integration of heritage recording and Building Information Modelling (BIM) has been introduced as HBIM and is now a method to document and manage these buildings. In the last decade many traditional surveying methods were used to record the buildings in Old Jeddah. However, these methods take a long time, can sometimes provide unreliable information and often lack completeness. This paper will look at another approach for heritage recording by using the Jeddah Historical Building Information Modelling (JHBIM).

  15. Quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model for daily price-limited stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Xu, Jingjing; Guo, Hong

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the behaviors of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is considered to be oscillating and damping in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. A complicated non-linear relation including inter-band positive correlation and intra-band negative correlation between the volatility and trading volume of a stock is numerically derived with the energy band structure of the model concerned. The effectiveness of price limit is re-examined, with some observed characteristics of price-limited stock markets in China studied by applying our quantum model.

  16. The cellular automaton model of investment behavior in the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yi-ming; Ying, Shang-jun; Fan, Ying; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2003-07-01

    The modeling theory and method using cellular automata are applied to the study on the complexity in the stock market. An evolution model based on cellular automaton for the investment behavior in the stock market is formulated. The simulation results and analyses of various states of the stock market show that investors’ imitation degree and the macro factors are the key determinants to the stability of the stock market. We observed that more diversity in the investment views of agents and lower imitation among investors are in favor of the normal development of the stock market.

  17. Calibrating Building Energy Models Using Supercomputer Trained Machine Learning Agents

    SciTech Connect

    Sanyal, Jibonananda; New, Joshua Ryan; Edwards, Richard; Parker, Lynne Edwards

    2014-01-01

    Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is an approach to model the energy usage in buildings for design and retrofit purposes. EnergyPlus is the flagship Department of Energy software that performs BEM for different types of buildings. The input to EnergyPlus can often extend in the order of a few thousand parameters which have to be calibrated manually by an expert for realistic energy modeling. This makes it challenging and expensive thereby making building energy modeling unfeasible for smaller projects. In this paper, we describe the Autotune research which employs machine learning algorithms to generate agents for the different kinds of standard reference buildings in the U.S. building stock. The parametric space and the variety of building locations and types make this a challenging computational problem necessitating the use of supercomputers. Millions of EnergyPlus simulations are run on supercomputers which are subsequently used to train machine learning algorithms to generate agents. These agents, once created, can then run in a fraction of the time thereby allowing cost-effective calibration of building models.

  18. Autotune E+ Building Energy Models

    SciTech Connect

    New, Joshua Ryan; Sanyal, Jibonananda; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Shrestha, Som S

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel Autotune methodology under development for calibrating building energy models (BEM). It is aimed at developing an automated BEM tuning methodology that enables models to reproduce measured data such as utility bills, sub-meter, and/or sensor data accurately and robustly by selecting best-match E+ input parameters in a systematic, automated, and repeatable fashion. The approach is applicable to a building retrofit scenario and aims to quantify the trade-offs between tuning accuracy and the minimal amount of ground truth data required to calibrate the model. Autotune will use a suite of machine-learning algorithms developed and run on supercomputers to generate calibration functions. Specifically, the project will begin with a de-tuned model and then perform Monte Carlo simulations on the model by perturbing the uncertain parameters within permitted ranges. Machine learning algorithms will then extract minimal perturbation combinations that result in modeled results that most closely track sensor data. A large database of parametric EnergyPlus (E+) simulations has been made publicly available. Autotune is currently being applied to a heavily instrumented residential building as well as three light commercial buildings in which a de-tuned model is autotuned using faux sensor data from the corresponding target E+ model.

  19. Darwinian Model Building

    SciTech Connect

    Kester, Do; Bontekoe, Romke

    2011-03-14

    We present a way to generate heuristic mathematical models based on the Darwinian principles of variation and selection in a pool of individuals over many generations. Each individual has a genotype (the hereditary properties) and a phenotype (the expression of these properties in the environment). Variation is achieved by cross-over and mutation operations on the genotype which consists in the present case of a single chromosome. The genotypes 'live' in the environment of the data. Nested Sampling is used to optimize the free parameters of the models given the data, thus giving rise to the phenotypes. Selection is based on the phenotypes.The evidences which naturally follow from the Nested Sampling Algorithm are used in a second level of Nested Sampling to find increasingly better models.The data in this paper originate from the Leiden Cytology and Pathology Laboratory (LCPL), which screens pap smears for cervical cancer. We have data for 1750 women who on average underwent 5 tests each. The data on individual women are treated as a small time series. We will try to estimate the next value of the prime cancer indicator from previous tests of the same woman.

  20. Darwinian Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kester, Do; Bontekoe, Romke

    2011-03-01

    We present a way to generate heuristic mathematical models based on the Darwinian principles of variation and selection in a pool of individuals over many generations. Each individual has a genotype (the hereditary properties) and a phenotype (the expression of these properties in the environment). Variation is achieved by cross-over and mutation operations on the genotype which consists in the present case of a single chromosome. The genotypes `live' in the environment of the data. Nested Sampling is used to optimize the free parameters of the models given the data, thus giving rise to the phenotypes. Selection is based on the phenotypes. The evidences which naturally follow from the Nested Sampling Algorithm are used in a second level of Nested Sampling to find increasingly better models. The data in this paper originate from the Leiden Cytology and Pathology Laboratory (LCPL), which screens pap smears for cervical cancer. We have data for 1750 women who on average underwent 5 tests each. The data on individual women are treated as a small time series. We will try to estimate the next value of the prime cancer indicator from previous tests of the same woman.

  1. Flexible building primitives for 3D building modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, B.; Jancosek, M.; Oude Elberink, S.; Vosselman, G.

    2015-03-01

    3D building models, being the main part of a digital city scene, are essential to all applications related to human activities in urban environments. The development of range sensors and Multi-View Stereo (MVS) technology facilitates our ability to automatically reconstruct level of details 2 (LoD2) models of buildings. However, because of the high complexity of building structures, no fully automatic system is currently available for producing building models. In order to simplify the problem, a lot of research focuses only on particular buildings shapes, and relatively simple ones. In this paper, we analyze the property of topology graphs of object surfaces, and find that roof topology graphs have three basic elements: loose nodes, loose edges, and minimum cycles. These elements have interesting physical meanings: a loose node is a building with one roof face; a loose edge is a ridge line between two roof faces whose end points are not defined by a third roof face; and a minimum cycle represents a roof corner of a building. Building primitives, which introduce building shape knowledge, are defined according to these three basic elements. Then all buildings can be represented by combining such building primitives. The building parts are searched according to the predefined building primitives, reconstructed independently, and grouped into a complete building model in a CSG-style. The shape knowledge is inferred via the building primitives and used as constraints to improve the building models, in which all roof parameters are simultaneously adjusted. Experiments show the flexibility of building primitives in both lidar point cloud and stereo point cloud.

  2. Building mental models by dissecting physical models.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Anveshna

    2016-01-01

    When students build physical models from prefabricated components to learn about model systems, there is an implicit trade-off between the physical degrees of freedom in building the model and the intensity of instructor supervision needed. Models that are too flexible, permitting multiple possible constructions require greater supervision to ensure focused learning; models that are too constrained require less supervision, but can be constructed mechanically, with little to no conceptual engagement. We propose "model-dissection" as an alternative to "model-building," whereby instructors could make efficient use of supervisory resources, while simultaneously promoting focused learning. We report empirical results from a study conducted with biology undergraduate students, where we demonstrate that asking them to "dissect" out specific conceptual structures from an already built 3D physical model leads to a significant improvement in performance than asking them to build the 3D model from simpler components. Using questionnaires to measure understanding both before and after model-based interventions for two cohorts of students, we find that both the "builders" and the "dissectors" improve in the post-test, but it is the latter group who show statistically significant improvement. These results, in addition to the intrinsic time-efficiency of "model dissection," suggest that it could be a valuable pedagogical tool. PMID:26712513

  3. A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jilani, Tahseen Ahmed; Burney, Syed Muhammad Aqil

    2008-05-01

    Time series models have been used to make predictions of stock prices, academic enrollments, weather, road accident casualties, etc. In this paper we present a simple time-variant fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method uses heuristic approach to define frequency-density-based partitions of the universe of discourse. We have proposed a fuzzy metric to use the frequency-density-based partitioning. The proposed fuzzy metric also uses a trend predictor to calculate the forecast. The new method is applied for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments’ forecasting of the University of Alabama. It is shown that the proposed method work with higher accuracy as compared to other fuzzy time series methods developed for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments of the University of Alabama.

  4. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  5. Virtual building environments (VBE) - Applying information modeling to buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Bazjanac, Vladimir

    2004-06-21

    A Virtual Building Environment (VBE) is a ''place'' where building industry project staffs can get help in creating Building Information Models (BIM) and in the use of virtual buildings. It consists of a group of industry software that is operated by industry experts who are also experts in the use of that software. The purpose of a VBE is to facilitate expert use of appropriate software applications in conjunction with each other to efficiently support multidisciplinary work. This paper defines BIM and virtual buildings, and describes VBE objectives, set-up and characteristics of operation. It informs about the VBE Initiative and the benefits from a couple of early VBE projects.

  6. Stock price forecasting using secondary self-regression model and wavelet neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chi-I.; Wang, Kai-Cheng; Chang, Kuei-Fang

    2015-07-01

    We have established a DWT-based secondary self-regression model (AR(2)) to forecast stock value. This method requires the user to decide upon the trend of the stock prices. We later used WNN to forecast stock prices which does not require the user to decide upon the trend. When comparing these two methods, we could see that AR(2) does not perform as well if there are no trends for the stock prices. On the other hand, WNN would not be influenced by the presence of trends.

  7. The uncertainty of modeled soil carbon stock change for Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehtonen, Aleksi; Heikkinen, Juha

    2013-04-01

    Countries should report soil carbon stock changes of forests for Kyoto Protocol. Under Kyoto Protocol one can omit reporting of a carbon pool by verifying that the pool is not a source of carbon, which is especially tempting for the soil pool. However, verifying that soils of a nation are not a source of carbon in given year seems to be nearly impossible. The Yasso07 model was parametrized against various decomposition data using MCMC method. Soil carbon change in Finland between 1972 and 2011 were simulated with Yasso07 model using litter input data derived from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and fellings time series. The uncertainties of biomass models, litter turnoverrates, NFI sampling and Yasso07 model were propagated with Monte Carlo simulations. Due to biomass estimation methods, uncertainties of various litter input sources (e.g. living trees, natural mortality and fellings) correlate strongly between each other. We show how original covariance matrices can be analytically combined and the amount of simulated components reduce greatly. While doing simulations we found that proper handling correlations may be even more essential than accurate estimates of standard errors. As a preliminary results, from the analysis we found that both Southern- and Northern Finland were soil carbon sinks, coefficient of variations (CV) varying 10%-25% when model was driven with long term constant weather data. When we applied annual weather data, soils were both sinks and sources of carbon and CVs varied from 10%-90%. This implies that the success of soil carbon sink verification depends on the weather data applied with models. Due to this fact IPCC should provide clear guidance for the weather data applied with soil carbon models and also for soil carbon sink verification. In the UNFCCC reporting carbon sinks of forest biomass have been typically averaged for five years - similar period for soil model weather data would be logical.

  8. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    PubMed Central

    Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E.; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. PMID:25749320

  9. Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock.

    PubMed

    Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-03-01

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. PMID:25749320

  10. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model

    PubMed Central

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders’ expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day’s price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

  11. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately. PMID:27196055

  12. Energy Savings Modeling of Standard Commercial Building Re-tuning Measures: Large Office Buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Fernandez, Nicholas; Katipamula, Srinivas; Wang, Weimin; Huang, Yunzhi; Liu, Guopeng

    2012-06-01

    Today, many large commercial buildings use sophisticated building automation systems (BASs) to manage a wide range of building equipment. While the capabilities of BASs have increased over time, many buildings still do not fully use the BAS's capabilities and are not properly commissioned, operated or maintained, which leads to inefficient operation, increased energy use, and reduced lifetimes of the equipment. This report investigates the energy savings potential of several common HVAC system retuning measures on a typical large office building prototype model, using the Department of Energy's building energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. The baseline prototype model uses roughly as much energy as an average large office building in existing building stock, but does not utilize any re-tuning measures. Individual re-tuning measures simulated against this baseline include automatic schedule adjustments, damper minimum flow adjustments, thermostat adjustments, as well as dynamic resets (set points that change continuously with building and/or outdoor conditions) to static pressure, supply air temperature, condenser water temperature, chilled and hot water temperature, and chilled and hot water differential pressure set points. Six combinations of these individual measures have been formulated - each designed to conform to limitations to implementation of certain individual measures that might exist in typical buildings. All of these measures and combinations were simulated in 16 cities representative of specific U.S. climate zones. The modeling results suggest that the most effective energy savings measures are those that affect the demand-side of the building (air-systems and schedules). Many of the demand-side individual measures were capable of reducing annual HVAC system energy consumption by over 20% in most cities that were modeled. Supply side measures affecting HVAC plant conditions were only modestly successful (less than 5% annual HVAC energy savings for

  13. An integrated material metabolism model for stocks of urban road system in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhen; Hu, Dan; Zhang, Fuhua; Huang, Guolong; Xiao, Qiang

    2014-02-01

    Rapid urbanization has greatly altered the urban metabolism of material and energy. As a significant part of the infrastructure, urban roads are being rapidly developed worldwide. Quantitative analysis of metabolic processes on urban road systems, especially the scale, composition and spatial distribution of their stocks, could help to assess the resource appropriation and potential environmental impacts, as well as improve urban metabolism models. In this paper, an integrated model, which covered all types of roads, intersection structures and ancillary facilities, was built for calculating the material stocks of urban road systems. Based on a bottom-up method, the total stocks were disassembled into a number of stock parts rather than obtained by input-output data, which provided an approach promoting data availability and inner structure understanding. The combination with GIS enabled the model to tackle the complex structures of road networks and avoid double counting. In the case study of Beijing, the following results are shown: 1) The total stocks for the entire road system reached 159 million tons, of which nearly 80% was stored in roads, and 20% in ancillary facilities. 2) Macadam was the largest stock (111 million tons), while stone mastic asphalt, polyurethane plastics, and atactic polypropylene accounted for smaller components of the overall system. 3) The stock per unit area of pedestrian overcrossing was higher than that of the other stock units in the entire system, and its steel stocks reached 0.49 t/m(2), which was 10 times as high as that in interchanges. 4) The high stock areas were mainly distributed in ring-shaped and radial expressways, as well as in major interchanges. 5) Expressways and arterials were excessively emphasized, while minor roads were relatively ignored. However, the variation of cross-sectional thickness in branches and neighborhood roads will have a significant impact on the scale of material stocks in the entire road system

  14. Building Knowledge Stocks: The Role of State Higher-Education Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groen, Jeffrey A.

    2009-01-01

    A variety of studies provide evidence that the stock of college-educated labor has fundamental effects on state and local economies through its association with wages, economic growth, personal incomes, and tax revenues. As a result, policymakers in many states try to increase the percentage of the state's population (or workforce) that has a…

  15. Modelling uncertainty of carbon stocks changes in peats.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Aalders, Inge; Morrice, Jane; Hough, Rupert

    2015-04-01

    Global warming might change the hydrology of upland blanket peats in Scotland with increased risk of release of the stored carbon. It is therefore important to model the loss of carbon in peat areas with estimation of the damage potential. The presented approach has the potential to provide important information for the assessment of carbon stocks over large areas, but also in case of changes of land use, such as construction of wind farms. The provided spatial uncertainty is important for including the results in further environmental and climate-change models and for decision making in order to provide alternatives and prioritisation. In this study, main peat properties (i.e. depth, water content, bulk density and carbon content) were modelled using a hybrid GAM-geostatistical 3D approach that allows full uncertainty propagation. The approach used involves 1) modelling the trend with full 3D spatial correlation, i.e., exploiting the values of the neighbouring pixels in 3D-space, and 2) 3D kriging as spatial component. The uncertainty of the approach is assessed with iterations in both steps of the process. We studied the difference between local estimates obtained with the present method and local estimates obtained assuming the global average value across the test area for Carbon content and bulk density. To this end, virtual pits with a surface area of 30x30 m were excavated for the whole peat depth at randomly selected locations. Calculated uncertainty was used to estimate credible intervals of C loss. In this case the estimates obtained with the proposed approach are higher that what would be obtained by assuming spatial homogeneity and using just average values across the area. This has implications for environmental decision making and planning as, in this case, it is likely that more carbon would be lost than estimated using traditional approaches.

  16. Underestimation of boreal soil carbon stocks by mathematical soil carbon models linked to soil nutrient status

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina A.; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-08-01

    Inaccurate estimate of the largest terrestrial carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, is the major source of uncertainty in simulating feedback of climate warming on ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange by process-based ecosystem and soil carbon models. Although the models need to simplify complex environmental processes of soil carbon sequestration, in a large mosaic of environments a missing key driver could lead to a modeling bias in predictions of SOC stock change.We aimed to evaluate SOC stock estimates of process-based models (Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY soil sub-model v4) against a massive Swedish forest soil inventory data set (3230 samples) organized by a recursive partitioning method into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions.For two-thirds of measurements all models predicted accurate SOC stock levels regardless of the detail of input data, e.g., whether they ignored or included soil properties. However, in fertile sites with high N deposition, high cation exchange capacity, or moderately increased soil water content, Yasso07 and Q models underestimated SOC stocks. In comparison to Yasso07 and Q, accounting for the site-specific soil characteristics (e. g. clay content and topsoil mineral N) by CENTURY improved SOC stock estimates for sites with high clay content, but not for sites with high N deposition.Our analysis suggested that the soils with poorly predicted SOC stocks, as characterized by the high nutrient status and well-sorted parent material, indeed have had other predominant drivers of SOC stabilization lacking in the models, presumably the mycorrhizal organic uptake and organo-mineral stabilization processes. Our results imply that the role of soil nutrient status as regulator of organic matter mineralization has to be re-evaluated, since correct SOC stocks are decisive for predicting future SOC change and soil CO2 efflux.

  17. Computer Model Buildings Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-05-19

    The RESRAD-BUILD computer code is a pathway analysis model designed to evaluate the potential radiological dose incurred by an individual who works or lives in a building contaminated with radioactive material.

  18. Window-Related Energy Consumption in the US Residential andCommercial Building Stock

    SciTech Connect

    Apte, Joshua; Arasteh, Dariush

    2006-06-16

    We present a simple spreadsheet-based tool for estimating window-related energy consumption in the United States. Using available data on the properties of the installed US window stock, we estimate that windows are responsible for 2.15 quadrillion Btu (Quads) of heating energy consumption and 1.48 Quads of cooling energy consumption annually. We develop estimates of average U-factor and SHGC for current window sales. We estimate that a complete replacement of the installed window stock with these products would result in energy savings of approximately 1.2 quads. We demonstrate that future window technologies offer energy savings potentials of up to 3.9 Quads.

  19. Assessment of South Pacific albacore stock ( Thunnus alalunga) by improved Schaefer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chien-Hsiung; Wang, Shyh-Bin

    2006-04-01

    Based on catch and effort data of tuna longline fishery operating in the South Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific albacore stock was assessed by an improved Schaefer model. The results revealed that the intrinsic growth rate was about 1.283 74 and carrying capacities vareied in the range from 73 734 to 266 732 metric tons. The growth ability of this species is remarkable. Stock dynamics mainly depends on environmental conditions. The stock is still in good condition. However, the continuous decreasing of biomass in recent years should be noticed.

  20. Automatic Building Information Model Query Generation

    SciTech Connect

    Jiang, Yufei; Yu, Nan; Ming, Jiang; Lee, Sanghoon; DeGraw, Jason; Yen, John; Messner, John I.; Wu, Dinghao

    2015-12-01

    Energy efficient building design and construction calls for extensive collaboration between different subfields of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) community. Performing building design and construction engineering raises challenges on data integration and software interoperability. Using Building Information Modeling (BIM) data hub to host and integrate building models is a promising solution to address those challenges, which can ease building design information management. However, the partial model query mechanism of current BIM data hub collaboration model has several limitations, which prevents designers and engineers to take advantage of BIM. To address this problem, we propose a general and effective approach to generate query code based on a Model View Definition (MVD). This approach is demonstrated through a software prototype called QueryGenerator. By demonstrating a case study using multi-zone air flow analysis, we show how our approach and tool can help domain experts to use BIM to drive building design with less labour and lower overhead cost.

  1. Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

    2015-11-01

    One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

  2. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  3. Aboveground biomass and carbon stocks modelling using non-linear regression model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ain Mohd Zaki, Nurul; Abd Latif, Zulkiflee; Nazip Suratman, Mohd; Zainee Zainal, Mohd

    2016-06-01

    Aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important source of uncertainty in the carbon estimation for the tropical forest due to the variation biodiversity of species and the complex structure of tropical rain forest. Nevertheless, the tropical rainforest holds the most extensive forest in the world with the vast diversity of tree with layered canopies. With the usage of optical sensor integrate with empirical models is a common way to assess the AGB. Using the regression, the linkage between remote sensing and a biophysical parameter of the forest may be made. Therefore, this paper exemplifies the accuracy of non-linear regression equation of quadratic function to estimate the AGB and carbon stocks for the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of Ayer Hitam forest reserve, Selangor. The main aim of this investigation is to obtain the relationship between biophysical parameter field plots with the remotely-sensed data using nonlinear regression model. The result showed that there is a good relationship between crown projection area (CPA) and carbon stocks (CS) with Pearson Correlation (p < 0.01), the coefficient of correlation (r) is 0.671. The study concluded that the integration of Worldview-3 imagery with the canopy height model (CHM) raster based LiDAR were useful in order to quantify the AGB and carbon stocks for a larger sample area of the lowland Dipterocarp forest.

  4. The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

  5. A Seminar in Mathematical Model-Building.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, David A.

    1979-01-01

    A course in mathematical model-building is described. Suggested modeling projects include: urban problems, biology and ecology, economics, psychology, games and gaming, cosmology, medicine, history, computer science, energy, and music. (MK)

  6. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  7. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    PubMed Central

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications. PMID:24977200

  8. Modeling Markov switching ARMA-GARCH neural networks models and an application to forecasting stock returns.

    PubMed

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications. PMID:24977200

  9. DOE Commercial Building Benchmark Models: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Torcelini, P.; Deru, M.; Griffith, B.; Benne, K.; Halverson, M.; Winiarski, D.; Crawley, D. B.

    2008-07-01

    To provide a consistent baseline of comparison and save time conducting such simulations, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a set of standard benchmark building models. This paper will provide an executive summary overview of these benchmark buildings, and how they can save building analysts valuable time. Fully documented and implemented to use with the EnergyPlus energy simulation program, the benchmark models are publicly available and new versions will be created to maintain compatibility with new releases of EnergyPlus. The benchmark buildings will form the basis for research on specific building technologies, energy code development, appliance standards, and measurement of progress toward DOE energy goals. Having a common starting point allows us to better share and compare research results and move forward to make more energy efficient buildings.

  10. Translating Building Information Modeling to Building Energy Modeling Using Model View Definition

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jong Bum; Clayton, Mark J.; Haberl, Jeff S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM) has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD) consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM) and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica) development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1) the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2) BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1) enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2) enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3) facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process. PMID:25309954

  11. Translating building information modeling to building energy modeling using model view definition.

    PubMed

    Jeong, WoonSeong; Kim, Jong Bum; Clayton, Mark J; Haberl, Jeff S; Yan, Wei

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM) has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD) consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM) and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica) development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1) the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2) BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1) enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2) enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3) facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process. PMID:25309954

  12. A note on Black-Scholes pricing model for theoretical values of stock options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edeki, S. O.; Ugbebor, O. O.; Owoloko, E. A.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we consider some conditions that transform the classical Black-Scholes Model for stock options valuation from its partial differential equation (PDE) form to an equivalent ordinary differential equation (ODE) form. In addition, we propose a relatively new semi-analytical method for the solution of the transformed Black-Scholes model. The obtained solutions via this method can be used to find the theoretical values of the stock options in relation to their fair prices. In considering the reliability and efficiency of the models, we test some cases and the results are in good agreement with the exact solution.

  13. Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.; Helder, J.; Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.

    2015-04-02

    In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

  14. Technology Prioritization: Transforming the U.S. Building Stock to Embrace Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the efforts to accelerate the transformation in the U.S. building energy efficiency sector using a new technology prioritization framework. The underlying analysis examines building energy use micro segments using the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook and other publically available information. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office (BTO) has developed a prioritization tool in an effort to inform programmatic decision making based on the long-term national impact of different energy efficiency measures. The prioritization tool can be used to investigate energy efficiency measures under a variety of scenarios and has a built-in energy accounting framework to prevent double counting of energy savings within any given portfolio. This tool is developed to inform decision making and estimate long term potential energy savings for different market adoption scenarios. It provides an objective comparison of new and existing measures and is being used to inform decision making with respect to BTO’s portfolio of projects.

  15. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Dobbs, Justin R.; Hencey, Brondon M.

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  16. Peat Depth Assessment Using Airborne Geophysical Data for Carbon Stock Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keaney, Antoinette; McKinley, Jennifer; Ruffell, Alastair; Robinson, Martin; Graham, Conor; Hodgson, Jim; Desissa, Mohammednur

    2013-04-01

    -ray spectrometry, moisture content and rainfall monitoring combined with a real-time Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) to monitor temporal and spatial variability of bog elevations. This research will assist in determining the accuracy and limitations of modelling soil carbon and changes in peat stocks by investigating the attenuation of gamma-radiation from underlying rocks. Tellus Border is supported by the EU INTERREG IVA programme, which is managed by the Special EU Programmes Body in Northern Ireland, the border Region of Ireland and western Scotland. The Tellus project was funded by the Northern Ireland Development of Enterprise Trade and Investment and by the Rural Development Programme through the Northern Ireland Programme for Building Sustainable Prosperity.

  17. Modeling soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Spain using the GEFSOC system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Easter, Mark; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Paustian, Keith

    2010-05-01

    Currently, there is little information about soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Spain. To date the effects of land-use and soil management on SOC stocks in Spain have been evaluated in experimental fields under certain soil and climate conditions. However, these field experiments do not account for the spatial variability in management, cropping systems and soil and climate characteristics that exist in the whole territory. More realistic approaches like ecosystem-level dynamic simulation systems linked to geographic information systems (GIS) allow better assessments of SOC stocks at a regional or national level. The Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system was recently built for this purpose (Milne et al., 2007) and it incorporates three widely used models for estimating SOC dynamics: (a) the Century ecosystem model; (b) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (c) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. We modeled 9.5 Mha in northeast Spain using the GEFSOC system to predict SOC stocks and changes comprising: pasture, forest, cereal-fallow, cereal monoculture, orchards, rice, irrigated land and grapes and olives. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database and from Spanish census data on land use from 1926 to 2007. At the same time, current and historical management information was collected from different sources in order to have a fairly well picture of changes in land use and management for this area. Soil parameters needed by the system were obtained from the European soil map (1 km x 1 km) and climate data was produced by the Meteorology State Agency (Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Environs of Spain). The SOC stocks simulated were validated with SOC values from the European SOC map and from other national studies. Modeled SOC results suggested that spatial

  18. Nonlinear model for building-soil systems

    SciTech Connect

    McCallen, D.B.; Romstad, K.M.

    1994-05-01

    A finite-element based, numerical analysis methodology has been developed for the nonlinear analysis of building-soil systems. The methodology utilizes a reduced-order, nonlinear continuum model to represent the building, and the soil is represented with a simple nonlinear two-dimensional plane strain finite element. The foundation of the building is idealized as a rigid block and the interface between the soil and the foundation is modeled with an interface contract element. The objectives of the current paper are to provide the theoretical development of the system model, with particular emphasis on the modeling of the foundation-soil contact, and to demonstrate the special-purpose finite-element program that has been developed for nonlinear analysis of the building-soil system. Examples are included that compare the results obtained with the special-purpose program with the results of a general-purpose nonlinear finite-element program.

  19. High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

    2008-02-01

    Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

  20. Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

    PubMed

    McNair, Douglas S

    2015-01-01

    In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks. PMID:26340239

  1. Modeling and computing of stock index forecasting based on neural network and Markov chain.

    PubMed

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

  2. Modeling and analysis of an agent-based model for Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chun-Xia; Wang, Rui; Hu, Sen

    2013-11-01

    We constructed an agent-based stock market model which concisely describe investors' heterogeneity and adaptability by introducing price sensitivity and feedback time. Under different parameters, the peak and fat-tail property of return distribution is produced and the obtained statistic values coincide with empirical results: the center peak exponents range from -0.787 to -0.661, and the tail exponents range from -4.29 to -2.37. Besides, long-term correlation in volatility is examined by DFA1 method, and the obtained exponent α is 0.803, which also coincides with the exponent of 0.78 found in real market.

  3. Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

    2014-09-01

    Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

  4. Integrating Building Information Modeling and Green Building Certification: The BIM-LEED Application Model Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wei

    2010-01-01

    Building information modeling (BIM) and green building are currently two major trends in the architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) industry. This research recognizes the market demand for better solutions to achieve green building certification such as LEED in the United States. It proposes a new strategy based on the integration of BIM…

  5. RCrane: semi-automated RNA model building

    PubMed Central

    Keating, Kevin S.; Pyle, Anna Marie

    2012-01-01

    RNA crystals typically diffract to much lower resolutions than protein crystals. This low-resolution diffraction results in unclear density maps, which cause considerable difficulties during the model-building process. These difficulties are exacerbated by the lack of computational tools for RNA modeling. Here, RCrane, a tool for the partially automated building of RNA into electron-density maps of low or intermediate resolution, is presented. This tool works within Coot, a common program for macromolecular model building. RCrane helps crystallographers to place phosphates and bases into electron density and then automatically predicts and builds the detailed all-atom structure of the traced nucleotides. RCrane then allows the crystallographer to review the newly built structure and select alternative backbone conformations where desired. This tool can also be used to automatically correct the backbone structure of previously built nucleotides. These automated corrections can fix incorrect sugar puckers, steric clashes and other structural problems. PMID:22868764

  6. Building a generalized distributed system model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mukkamala, Ravi

    1991-01-01

    A number of topics related to building a generalized distributed system model are discussed. The effects of distributed database modeling on evaluation of transaction rollbacks, the measurement of effects of distributed database models on transaction availability measures, and a performance analysis of static locking in replicated distributed database systems are covered.

  7. Modelling the effect of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon stocks: does soil erosion matter?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeu, Elisabet; Van Wesemael, Bas; Van Oost, Kristof

    2014-05-01

    Over the last decades, an increasing number of studies have been conducted to assess the effect of soil management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. At regional scales, biogeochemical models such as CENTURY or Roth-C have been commonly applied. These models simulate SOC dynamics at the profile level (point basis) over long temporal scales but do not consider the continuous lateral transfer of sediment that takes place along geomorphic toposequences. As a consequence, the impact of soil redistribution on carbon fluxes is very seldom taken into account when evaluating changes in SOC stocks due to agricultural management practices on the short and long-term. To address this gap, we assessed the role of soil erosion by water and tillage on SOC stocks under different agricultural management practices in the Walloon region of Belgium. The SPEROS-C model was run for a 100-year period combining three typical crop rotations (using winter wheat, winter barley, sugar beet and maize) with three tillage scenarios (conventional tillage, reduced tillage and reduced tillage in combination with additional crop residues). The results showed that including soil erosion by water in the simulations led to a general decrease in SOC stocks relative to a baseline scenario (where no erosion took place). The SOC lost from these arable soils was mainly exported to adjacent sites and to the river system by lateral fluxes, with magnitudes differing between crop rotations and in all cases lower under conservation tillage practices than under conventional tillage. Although tillage erosion plays an important role in carbon redistribution within fields, lateral fluxes induced by water erosion led to a higher spatial and in-depth heterogeneity of SOC stocks with potential effects on the soil water holding capacity and crop yields. This indicates that studies assessing the effect of agricultural management practices on SOC stocks and other soil properties over the landscape should

  8. On the choice of GARCH parameters for efficient modelling of real stock price dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhilchuk, K. A.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2016-04-01

    We propose two different methods for optimal choice of GARCH(1,1) parameters for the efficient modelling of stock prices by using a particular return series. Using (as an example) stock return data for Intel Corporation, we vary parameters to fit the average volatility as well as fourth (linked to kurtosis of data) and eighth statistical moments and observe pure convergence of our simulated eighth moment to the stock data. Results indicate that fitting higher-order moments of a return series might not be an optimal approach for choosing GARCH parameters. In contrast, the simulated exponent of the Fourier spectrum decay is much less noisy and can easily fit the corresponding decay of the empirical Fourier spectrum of the used return series of Intel stock, allowing us to efficiently define all GARCH parameters. We compare the estimates of GARCH parameters obtained by fitting price data Fourier spectra with the ones obtained from standard software packages and conclude that the obtained estimates here are deeper in the stability region of parameters. Thus, the proposed method of using Fourier spectra of stock data to estimate GARCH parameters results in a more robust and stable stochastic process but with a shorter characteristic autocovariance time.

  9. Option pricing formulas based on a non-Gaussian stock price model.

    PubMed

    Borland, Lisa

    2002-08-26

    Options are financial instruments that depend on the underlying stock. We explain their non-Gaussian fluctuations using the nonextensive thermodynamics parameter q. A generalized form of the Black-Scholes (BS) partial differential equation and some closed-form solutions are obtained. The standard BS equation (q=1) which is used by economists to calculate option prices requires multiple values of the stock volatility (known as the volatility smile). Using q=1.5 which well models the empirical distribution of returns, we get a good description of option prices using a single volatility. PMID:12190447

  10. Model building techniques for analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Walther, Howard P.; McDaniel, Karen Lynn; Keener, Donald; Cordova, Theresa Elena; Henry, Ronald C.; Brooks, Sean; Martin, Wilbur D.

    2009-09-01

    The practice of mechanical engineering for product development has evolved into a complex activity that requires a team of specialists for success. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has product engineers, mechanical designers, design engineers, manufacturing engineers, mechanical analysts and experimentalists, qualification engineers, and others that contribute through product realization teams to develop new mechanical hardware. The goal of SNL's Design Group is to change product development by enabling design teams to collaborate within a virtual model-based environment whereby analysis is used to guide design decisions. Computer-aided design (CAD) models using PTC's Pro/ENGINEER software tools are heavily relied upon in the product definition stage of parts and assemblies at SNL. The three-dimensional CAD solid model acts as the design solid model that is filled with all of the detailed design definition needed to manufacture the parts. Analysis is an important part of the product development process. The CAD design solid model (DSM) is the foundation for the creation of the analysis solid model (ASM). Creating an ASM from the DSM currently is a time-consuming effort; the turnaround time for results of a design needs to be decreased to have an impact on the overall product development. This effort can be decreased immensely through simple Pro/ENGINEER modeling techniques that summarize to the method features are created in a part model. This document contains recommended modeling techniques that increase the efficiency of the creation of the ASM from the DSM.

  11. Building vulnerability assessment based on cloud model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xixia; Cai, Chao

    2013-10-01

    This study aims at building a general framework for estimating building vulnerability to blast-fragmentation warhead of a missile. Considering the fuzziness and randomness existing in the damage criterion rules, cloud models are applied to represent the qualitative concepts. On the basis of building geometric description, element criticality analysis, blast wave and fragment movement description, and meeting analysis of fragments and target, kill probabilities of the components are estimated by the shot line method. The damage state of the whole building given the threat is obtained by cloud model based uncertainty reasoning and the proposed similarity measure, enabling both randomness of probability reasoning and the fuzziness of the traditional fuzzy logic to be considered. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide useful reference for optimizing warhead design and mission efficiency evaluation.

  12. A Non-Gaussian Stock Price Model: Options, Credit and a Multi-Timescale Memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borland, L.

    We review a recently proposed model of stock prices, based on astatistical feedback model that results in a non-Gaussian distribution of price changes. Applications to option pricing and the pricing of debt is discussed. A generalization to account for feedback effects over multiple timescales is also presented. This model reproduces most of the stylized facts (ie statistical anomalies) observed in real financial markets.

  13. Supercomputer Assisted Generation of Machine Learning Agents for the Calibration of Building Energy Models

    SciTech Connect

    Sanyal, Jibonananda; New, Joshua Ryan; Edwards, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is an approach to model the energy usage in buildings for design and retrot pur- poses. EnergyPlus is the agship Department of Energy software that performs BEM for dierent types of buildings. The input to EnergyPlus can often extend in the order of a few thousand parameters which have to be calibrated manu- ally by an expert for realistic energy modeling. This makes it challenging and expensive thereby making building en- ergy modeling unfeasible for smaller projects. In this paper, we describe the \\Autotune" research which employs machine learning algorithms to generate agents for the dierent kinds of standard reference buildings in the U.S. building stock. The parametric space and the variety of building locations and types make this a challenging computational problem necessitating the use of supercomputers. Millions of En- ergyPlus simulations are run on supercomputers which are subsequently used to train machine learning algorithms to generate agents. These agents, once created, can then run in a fraction of the time thereby allowing cost-eective cali- bration of building models.

  14. Modeling UHF Radio Propagation in Buildings.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honcharenko, Walter

    The potential implementation of wireless Radio Local Area Networks and Personal Communication Services inside buildings requires a thorough understanding of signal propagation within buildings. This work describes a study leading to a theoretical understanding of wave propagation phenomenon inside buildings. Covered first is propagation in the clear space between the floor and ceiling, which is modeled using Kirchoff -Huygens diffraction theory. This along with ray tracing techniques are used to develop a model to predict signal coverage inside buildings. Simulations were conducted on a hotel building, two office buildings, and a university building to which measurements of CW signals were compared, with good agreement. Propagation to other floors was studied to determine the signal strength as a function of the number of floors separating transmitter and receiver. Diffraction paths and through the floor paths which carry significant power to the receivers were examined. Comparisons were made to measurements in a hotel building and an office building, in which agreements were excellent. As originally developed for Cellular Mobile Radio (CMR) systems, the sector average is obtained from the spatial average of the received signal as the mobile traverses a path of 20 or so wavelengths. This approach has also been applied indoors with the assumption that a unique average could be obtained by moving either end of the radio link. However, unlike in the CMR environment, inside buildings both ends of the radio link are in a rich multipath environment. It is shown both theoretically and experimentally that moving both ends of the link is required to achieve a unique average. Accurate modeling of the short pulse response of a signal within a building will provide insight for determining the hardware necessary for high speed data transmission and recovery, and a model for determining the impulse response is developed in detail. Lastly, the propagation characteristics of

  15. Budget Formulas and Model Building.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cope, Robert G.

    Selected budget formulas currently in use for university operations are described as a background for examining a budgetary model that would provide for the integration of separate formulas. Data on the formulas were collected from states with system-wide coordinating boards that are responsible for budgetary reviews. The most common formula…

  16. Building a New Business Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berkey, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    Monarch High School in Boulder, Colorado, is one of 25 schools piloting the High School of Business program, an accelerated business administration program developed by Columbus, Ohio-based MBA"Research" and Curriculum Center. This article describes the program which uses a heavily project-based pedagogy to teach a curriculum modeled after college…

  17. Community Building: Imagining New Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Northwest Education, 1998

    1998-01-01

    School-community collaborations are partnerships that can take different forms and serve many purposes. An overview of some partnership models is provided in this text. It shows how schools can play a central role in the revitalization of a community by serving as community centers and by fostering school-based enterprises. Ways in which students…

  18. Stochastic Frontier Model Approach for Measuring Stock Market Efficiency with Different Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Mustafa, Adli; Baten, Md. Azizul

    2012-01-01

    The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time- varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation. PMID:22629352

  19. Stochastic frontier model approach for measuring stock market efficiency with different distributions.

    PubMed

    Hasan, Md Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Mustafa, Adli; Baten, Md Azizul

    2012-01-01

    The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation. PMID:22629352

  20. Use of anthropometric dummies of mathematical models in the safety and comfortableness analysis of a passenger rolling stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobishchanov, V.; Antipin, D.; Shorokhov, S.; Mitrakov, A.

    2016-04-01

    Approaches to the safety and comfortableness analysis of a railway passenger rolling stock with anthropometrical dummies of mathematical models usage are offered. There are recommendations about a rolling stock design, based on the analysis of traumatism of passengers and members of train crews, and also based on comfort parameters at various modes of train movement.

  1. Heterotic model building: 16 special manifolds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Yang-Hui; Lee, Seung-Joo; Lukas, Andre; Sun, Chuang

    2014-06-01

    We study heterotic model building on 16 specific Calabi-Yau manifolds constructed as hypersurfaces in toric four-folds. These 16 manifolds are the only ones among the more than half a billion manifolds in the Kreuzer-Skarke list with a non-trivial first fundamental group. We classify the line bundle models on these manifolds, both for SU(5) and SO(10) GUTs, which lead to consistent supersymmetric string vacua and have three chiral families. A total of about 29000 models is found, most of them corresponding to SO(10) GUTs. These models constitute a starting point for detailed heterotic model building on Calabi-Yau manifolds in the Kreuzer-Skarke list. The data for these models can be downloaded from http://www-thphys.physics.ox.ac.uk/projects/CalabiYau/toricdata/index.html.

  2. Minimalism in inflation model building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvali, Gia; Riotto, Antonio

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we demand that a successful inflationary scenario should follow from a model entirely motivated by particle physics considerations. We show that such a connection is indeed possible within the framework of concrete supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories where the doublet-triplet splitting problem is naturally solved. The Fayet-Iliopoulos D-term of a gauge U(1)ξ symmetry, which plays a crucial role in the solution of the doublet-triplet splitting problem, simultaneously provides a built-in inflationary slope protected from dangerous supergravity corrections.

  3. Model risk for European-style stock index options.

    PubMed

    Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

    2007-01-01

    In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning. PMID:17278472

  4. lidar change detection using building models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Angela M.; Runyon, Scott C.; Jalobeanu, Andre; Esterline, Chelsea H.; Kruse, Fred A.

    2014-06-01

    Terrestrial LiDAR scans of building models collected with a FARO Focus3D and a RIEGL VZ-400 were used to investigate point-to-point and model-to-model LiDAR change detection. LiDAR data were scaled, decimated, and georegistered to mimic real world airborne collects. Two physical building models were used to explore various aspects of the change detection process. The first model was a 1:250-scale representation of the Naval Postgraduate School campus in Monterey, CA, constructed from Lego blocks and scanned in a laboratory setting using both the FARO and RIEGL. The second model at 1:8-scale consisted of large cardboard boxes placed outdoors and scanned from rooftops of adjacent buildings using the RIEGL. A point-to-point change detection scheme was applied directly to the point-cloud datasets. In the model-to-model change detection scheme, changes were detected by comparing Digital Surface Models (DSMs). The use of physical models allowed analysis of effects of changes in scanner and scanning geometry, and performance of the change detection methods on different types of changes, including building collapse or subsistence, construction, and shifts in location. Results indicate that at low false-alarm rates, the point-to-point method slightly outperforms the model-to-model method. The point-to-point method is less sensitive to misregistration errors in the data. Best results are obtained when the baseline and change datasets are collected using the same LiDAR system and collection geometry.

  5. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  6. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decsion with Mitigation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  7. Mobile Modelling for Crowdsourcing Building Interior Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, J.; Morley, J.; Jackson, M.

    2012-06-01

    Indoor spatial data forms an important foundation to many ubiquitous computing applications. It gives context to users operating location-based applications, provides an important source of documentation of buildings and can be of value to computer systems where an understanding of environment is required. Unlike external geographic spaces, no centralised body or agency is charged with collecting or maintaining such information. Widespread deployment of mobile devices provides a potential tool that would allow rapid model capture and update by a building's users. Here we introduce some of the issues involved in volunteering building interior data and outline a simple mobile tool for capture of indoor models. The nature of indoor data is inherently private; however in-depth analysis of this issue and legal considerations are not discussed in detail here.

  8. Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Il Gu; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-08-01

    We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters p and q, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than p (-q). We discretize the unit square (p,q) ∈ [0,1] × [0,1] into the N × N square grid and the profit Π(p,q) is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: the number M of local maxima follows the power-law form M ˜ Na, but the scaling exponent a is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent a ≈ 1.6 observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by a ≈ 1.6 can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

  9. Stochastic modeling of stock price process induced from the conjugate heat equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeng, Seong-Hun

    2015-02-01

    Currency can be considered as a ruler for values of commodities. Then the price is the measured value by the ruler. We can suppose that inflation and variation of exchange rate are caused by variation of the scale of the ruler. In geometry, variation of the scale means that the metric is time-dependent. The conjugate heat equation is the modified heat equation which satisfies the heat conservation law for the time-dependent metric space. We propose a new model of stock prices by using the stochastic process whose transition probability is determined by the kernel of the conjugate heat equation. Our model of stock prices shows how the volatility term is affected by inflation and exchange rate. This model modifies the Black-Scholes equation in light of inflation and exchange rate.

  10. Modeling of Building Scale Flow and Dispersion

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, R L; Calhoun, R J; Chan, S T; Leone, J; Stevens, D E

    2001-07-10

    Predictions of airflows around buildings and the associated thermal and dispersion phenomena continue to be challenging because of the presence of extremely heterogeneous surface structures within urban areas. Atmospheric conditions can induce local winds to flow around structures rather than over them. Thus pollutants that are released at or near the ground tend to persist at relatively low levels with only minimal ventilation of the airborne material away from the ground surface. While flow and dispersion phenomena can be studied within wind tunnel settings, recent advances in numerical modeling have enabled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to evolve into an important tool in the simulation of building scale flows. They are developing numerical models to simulate the flow and dispersion of releases around multi-building complexes. These models will be used to assess the transport and fate of releases of hazardous agents within urban areas and to support emergency response activities. There are already a number of models that have been developed to simulate flow and dispersion around urban settings. A recent collection of these papers can be found in the Proceedings of the International Workshop on CFD for Wind Climate in Cities. Most of the simulation studies presented in the literature are based on single buildings with a few of these results compared with wind tunnel experiments. As the applications become more advanced, the influence of multiple buildings, vegetation, surface heating and atmospheric stability on flow and dispersion has begun to be incorporated into recent CFD models. The focus of this paper is to describe LLNL's effort in the development of a high-performance CFD model for simulating transport and diffusion of hazardous releases around buildings and building complexes. A number of new physics features have been implemented in order to customize the CFD model for the urban application. These include surface heating, vegetation canopy, heat

  11. Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

    2012-10-01

    The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

  12. Quantum modeling of nonlinear dynamics of stock prices: Bohmian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choustova, O.

    2007-08-01

    We use quantum mechanical methods to model the price dynamics in the financial market mathematically. We propose describing behavioral financial factors using the pilot-wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The real price trajectories are determined (via the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: the classical-like potential V (q) (“hard” market conditions) and the quantumlike potential U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  13. Building Regression Models: The Importance of Graphics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunn, Richard

    1989-01-01

    Points out reasons for using graphical methods to teach simple and multiple regression analysis. Argues that a graphically oriented approach has considerable pedagogic advantages in the exposition of simple and multiple regression. Shows that graphical methods may play a central role in the process of building regression models. (Author/LS)

  14. Promoting Mental Model Building in Astronomy Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Ian; Barker, Miles; Jones, Alister

    2003-01-01

    While astronomy has recently re-emerged in many science curricula, there remain unresolved teaching and learning difficulties peculiar to astronomy education. This paper argues that mental model building, the core process in astronomy itself, should be reflected in astronomy education. Also, this crucial skill may promote a better understanding of…

  15. Scripted Building Energy Modeling and Analysis (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Macumber, D.

    2012-10-01

    Building energy analysis is often time-intensive, error-prone, and non-reproducible. Entire energy analyses can be scripted end-to-end using the OpenStudio Ruby API. Common tasks within an analysis can be automated using OpenStudio Measures. Graphical user interfaces (GUI's) and component libraries reduce time, decrease errors, and improve repeatability in energy modeling.

  16. Models for map building and navigation

    SciTech Connect

    Penna, M.A.; Jian Wu

    1993-09-01

    In this paper the authors present several models for solving map building and navigation problems. These models are motivated by biological processes, and presented in the context of artificial neural networks. Since the nodes, weights, and threshold functions of the models all have physical meanings, they can easily predict network topologies and avoid traditional trial-and-error training. On one hand, this makes their models useful in constructing solutions to engineering problems (problems such as those that occur in robotics, for example). On the other hand, this might also contribute to the ability of their models to explain some biological processes, few of which are completely understood at this time.

  17. Mapping soil organic carbon stocks by robust geostatistical and boosted regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nussbaum, Madlene; Papritz, Andreas; Baltensweiler, Andri; Walthert, Lorenz

    2013-04-01

    Carbon (C) sequestration in forests offsets greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, quantifying C stocks and fluxes in forest ecosystems is of interest for greenhouse gas reporting according to the Kyoto protocol. In Switzerland, the National Forest Inventory offers comprehensive data to quantify the aboveground forest biomass and its change in time. Estimating stocks of soil organic C (SOC) in forests is more difficult because the variables needed to quantify stocks vary strongly in space and precise quantification of some of them is very costly. Based on data from 1'033 plots we modeled SOC stocks of the organic layer and the mineral soil to depths of 30 cm and 100 cm for the Swiss forested area. For the statistical modeling a broad range of covariates were available: Climate data (e. g. precipitation, temperature), two elevation models (resolutions 25 and 2 m) with respective terrain attributes and spectral reflectance data representing vegetation. Furthermore, the main mapping units of an overview soil map and a coarse scale geological map were used to coarsely represent the parent material of the soils. The selection of important covariates for SOC stocks modeling out of a large set was a major challenge for the statistical modeling. We used two approaches to deal with this problem: 1) A robust restricted maximum likelihood method to fit linear regression model with spatially correlated errors. The large number of covariates was first reduced by LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) and then further narrowed down to a parsimonious set of important covariates by cross-validation of the robustly fitted model. To account for nonlinear dependencies of the response on the covariates interaction terms of the latter were included in model if this improved the fit. 2) A boosted structured regression model with componentwise linear least squares or componentwise smoothing splines as base procedures. The selection of important covariates was done by the

  18. Generating Navigation Models from Existing Building Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.; Zlatanova, S.

    2013-11-01

    Research on indoor navigation models mainly focuses on geometric and logical models .The models are enriched with specific semantic information which supports localisation, navigation and guidance. Geometric models provide information about the structural (physical) distribution of spaces in a building, while logical models indicate relationships (connectivity and adjacency) between the spaces. In many cases geometric models contain virtual subdivisions to identify smaller spaces which are of interest for navigation (e.g. reception area) or make use of different semantics. The geometric models are used as basis to automatically derive logical models. However, there is seldom reported research on how to automatically realize such geometric models from existing building data (as floor plans) or indoor standards (CityGML LOD4 or IFC). In this paper, we present our experiments on automatic creation of logical models from floor plans and CityGML LOD4. For the creation we adopt the Indoor Spatial Navigation Model (INSM) which is specifically designed to support indoor navigation. The semantic concepts in INSM differ from daily used notations of indoor spaces such as rooms and corridors but they facilitate automatic creation of logical models.

  19. Urbanization has a positive net effect on soil carbon stocks: modelling outcomes for the Moscow region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasenev, Viacheslav; Stoorvogel, Jetse; Leemans, Rik; Valentini, Riccardo

    2016-04-01

    Urbanization is responsible for large environmental changes worldwide. Urbanization was traditionally related to negative environmental impacts, but recent research highlights the potential to store soil carbon (C) in urban areas. The net effect of urbanization on soil C is, however, poorly understood. Negative influences of construction and soil sealing can be compensated by establishing of green areas. We explored possible net effects of future urbanization on soil C-stocks in the Moscow Region. Urbanization was modelled as a function of environmental, socio-economic and neighbourhood factors. This yielded three alternative scenarios: i) including neighbourhood factors; ii) excluding neighbourhood factors and focusing on environmental drivers; and iii) considering the New Moscow Project, establishing 1500km2 of new urbanized area following governmental regulation. All three scenarios showed substantial urbanization on 500 to 2000km2 former forests and arable lands. Our analysis shows a positive net effect on SOC stocks of 5 to 11 TgC. The highest increase occurred on the less fertile Orthic Podzols and Eutric Podzoluvisols, whereas C-storage in Orthic Luvisols, Luvic Chernozems, Dystric Histosols and Eutric Fluvisols increased less. Subsoil C-stocks were much more affected with an extra 4 to 10 TgC than those in the topsoils. The highest increase of both topsoil and subsoil C stocks occurred in the New Moscow scenario with the highest urbanization. Even when the relatively high uncertainties of the absolute C-values are considered, a clear positive net effect of urbanization on C-stocks is apparent. This highlights the potential of cities to enhance C-storage. This will progressively become more important in the future following the increasing world-wide urbanization.

  20. Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2009-05-01

    The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF model does not show sound long memory. We propose a modified version of the MF model by including a new ingredient, that is, long memory in the aggressiveness (quantified by the relative prices) of incoming orders, which is an important stylized fact identified by analyzing the order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks. Long memory emerges in the volatility synthesized from the modified MF model with the DFA scaling exponent close to 0.76, and the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of prices are also produced at the same time. We also find that the long memory of order signs has no impact on the long memory property of volatility, and the memory effect of order aggressiveness has little impact on the diffusiveness of stock prices.

  1. Simulating Soil C Stock with the Process-based Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The prospect of storing carbon (C) in soil, as soil organic matter (SOM), provides an opportunity for agriculture to contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while enhancing soil properties. Soil C models are useful for examining the complex interactions between crop, soil man...

  2. Building the RHIC tracking lattice model

    SciTech Connect

    Luo, Y.; Fischer, W.; Tepikian, S.

    2010-01-27

    In this note we outline the procedure to build a realistic lattice model for the RHIC beam-beam tracking simulation. We will install multipole field errors in the arc main dipoles, arc main quadrupols and interaction region magnets (DX, D0, and triplets) and introduce a residual closed orbit, tune ripples, and physical apertures in the tracking lattice model. Nonlinearities such as local IR multipoles, second order chromaticies and third order resonance driving terms are also corrected before tracking.

  3. One-factor model for the cross-correlation matrix in the Vietnamese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Quang

    2013-07-01

    Random matrix theory (RMT) has been applied to the analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of a financial time series. The most important findings of previous studies using this method are that the eigenvalue spectrum largely follows that of random matrices but the largest eigenvalue is at least one order of magnitude higher than the maximum eigenvalue predicted by RMT. In this work, we investigate the cross-correlation matrix in the Vietnamese stock market using RMT and find similar results to those of studies realized in developed markets (US, Europe, Japan) [9-18] as well as in other emerging markets[20,21,19,22]. Importantly, we found that the largest eigenvalue could be approximated by the product of the average cross-correlation coefficient and the number of stocks studied. We demonstrate this dependence using a simple one-factor model. The model could be extended to describe other characteristics of the realistic data.

  4. Development of Residential Prototype Building Models and Analysis System for Large-Scale Energy Efficiency Studies Using EnergyPlus

    SciTech Connect

    Mendon, Vrushali V.; Taylor, Zachary T.

    2014-09-10

    ABSTRACT: Recent advances in residential building energy efficiency and codes have resulted in increased interest in detailed residential building energy models using the latest energy simulation software. One of the challenges of developing residential building models to characterize new residential building stock is to allow for flexibility to address variability in house features like geometry, configuration, HVAC systems etc. Researchers solved this problem in a novel way by creating a simulation structure capable of creating fully-functional EnergyPlus batch runs using a completely scalable residential EnergyPlus template system. This system was used to create a set of thirty-two residential prototype building models covering single- and multifamily buildings, four common foundation types and four common heating system types found in the United States (US). A weighting scheme with detailed state-wise and national weighting factors was designed to supplement the residential prototype models. The complete set is designed to represent a majority of new residential construction stock. The entire structure consists of a system of utility programs developed around the core EnergyPlus simulation engine to automate the creation and management of large-scale simulation studies with minimal human effort. The simulation structure and the residential prototype building models have been used for numerous large-scale studies, one of which is briefly discussed in this paper.

  5. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm

  6. Modeling of the Climax Stock and Related Plutons Based on the Inversion of Magnetic Data, Southwest Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phelps, Geoffrey A.; Jachens, Robert C.; Moring, Barry C.; Roberts, Carter W.

    2004-01-01

    Two models of the Climax and Gold Meadows stocks were generated using a new method of magnetic inversion modeling based on the pseudogravity anomaly. The first model examined the shape of the two stocks and their connection at depth, concluding that the stocks are connected -4000 m below the ground surface. The second model re-examined the shape and depth of the Climax stock using a two-layer model and new magnetic data collected from drill hole ER-8-1. Existing and new magnetic data support a model of a zoned pluton with increasing magnetization with depth. A model of a zoned pluton was generated and adjusted to fit the magnetic anomaly measured over the stock. The model has an upper layer that extends to a depth of 1,700 m and is magnetized at 0.06 A/m, and a lower layer that extends to a maximum depth of 7,600 m and is magnetized at 0.17 A/m. The model matches the outcrop data, but was unable to match the intercept of the Climax stock from drill hole ER-8-1.

  7. A Master Equation Approach to Modeling Short-term Behaviors of the Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Conan; Yang, Xiaoxiang; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Short term fluctuations in stock prices are highly random, due to the multitude of external factors acting on the price determination process. While long-term economic factors such as inflation and revenue growth rate affect short-term price fluctuation, it is difficult to obtain the complete set of information and uncertainties associated with a given period of time. Instead, we propose a simpler short-term model based on only prior price averages and extrema. In this paper, we take a master equation under the random walk hypothesis and fit parameters based on AAPL stock price data over the past ten years. We report results for small system sizes and for the short term average price. These results may lead to a general closed-form solution to this particular master equation.

  8. Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

    2007-03-01

    This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

  9. Critical comparison of several order-book models for stock-market fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slanina, F.

    2008-01-01

    Far-from-equilibrium models of interacting particles in one dimension are used as a basis for modelling the stock-market fluctuations. Particle types and their positions are interpreted as buy and sel orders placed on a price axis in the order book. We revisit some modifications of well-known models, starting with the Bak-Paczuski-Shubik model. We look at the four decades old Stigler model and investigate its variants. One of them is the simplified version of the Genoa artificial market. The list of studied models is completed by the models of Maslov and Daniels et al. Generically, in all cases we compare the return distribution, absolute return autocorrelation and the value of the Hurst exponent. It turns out that none of the models reproduces satisfactorily all the empirical data, but the most promising candidates for further development are the Genoa artificial market and the Maslov model with moderate order evaporation.

  10. Scripted Building Energy Modeling and Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hale, E.; Macumber, D.; Benne, K.; Goldwasser, D.

    2012-08-01

    Building energy modeling and analysis is currently a time-intensive, error-prone, and nonreproducible process. This paper describes the scripting platform of the OpenStudio tool suite (http://openstudio.nrel.gov) and demonstrates its use in several contexts. Two classes of scripts are described and demonstrated: measures and free-form scripts. Measures are small, single-purpose scripts that conform to a predefined interface. Because measures are fairly simple, they can be written or modified by inexperienced programmers.

  11. Simplified Models for Dark Matter Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DiFranzo, Anthony Paul

    The largest mass component of the universe is a longstanding mystery to the physics community. As a glaring source of new physics beyond the Standard Model, there is a large effort to uncover the quantum nature of dark matter. Many probes have been formed to search for this elusive matter; cultivating a rich environment for a phenomenologist. In addition to the primary probes---colliders, direct detection, and indirect detection---each with their own complexities, there is a plethora of prospects to illuminate our unanswered questions. In this work, phenomenological techniques for studying dark matter and other possible hints of new physics will be discussed. This work primarily focuses on the use of Simplified Models, which are intended to be a compromise between generality and validity of the theoretical description. They are often used to parameterize a particular search, develop a well-defined sense of complementarity between searches, or motivate new search strategies. Explicit examples of such models and how they may be used will be the highlight of each chapter.

  12. Building information models for astronomy projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  13. Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kui; Liu, Qun; Kalhoro, Muhsan Ali

    2015-06-01

    Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data (1975-2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises (CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.

  14. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  15. Building character: a model for reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Charles S; Babelay, Allison M

    2009-09-01

    In 1950, Harrison and colleagues proposed that the physician's ultimate and sufficient destiny should be to "build an enduring edifice of character." Recent work in philosophy underscores the importance of character ethics (virtue ethics) as a complement to ethical systems based on duty (deontology) or results (consequentialism). Recent work in psychology suggests that virtues and character strengths can, to at least some extent, be analyzed and taught. Building character might be enhanced by promoting among students, residents, and faculty a four-step method of reflective practice that includes (1) the details of a situation, (2) the relevant virtues, (3) the relevant principles, values, and ethical frameworks, and (4) the range of acceptable courses of action. Exercises using such a model bring together the major goals of ethics education in U.S. medical schools--teaching the set of skills needed for resolving ethical dilemmas and promoting virtue and professionalism among physicians. PMID:19707072

  16. Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring.

    PubMed

    Deriso, Richard B; Maunder, Mark N; Pearson, Walter H

    2008-07-01

    We present a framework for evaluating the cause of fishery declines by integrating covariates into a fisheries stock assessment model. This allows the evaluation of fisheries' effects vs. natural and other human impacts. The analyses presented are based on integrating ecological science and statistics and form the basis for environmental decision-making advice. Hypothesis tests are described to rank hypotheses and determine the size of a multiple covariate model. We extend recent developments in integrated analysis and use novel methods to produce effect size estimates that are relevant to policy makers and include estimates of uncertainty. Results can be directly applied to evaluate trade-offs among alternative management decisions. The methods and results are also broadly applicable outside fisheries stock assessment. We show that multiple factors influence populations and that analysis of factors in isolation can be misleading. We illustrate the framework by applying it to Pacific herring of Prince William Sound, Alaska (USA). The Pacific herring stock that spawns in Prince William Sound is a stock that has collapsed, but there are several competing or alternative hypotheses to account for the initial collapse and subsequent lack of recovery. Factors failing the initial screening tests for statistical significance included indicators of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, coho salmon predation, sea lion predation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Northern Oscillation Index, and effects of containment in the herring egg-on-kelp pound fishery. The overall results indicate that the most statistically significant factors related to the lack of recovery of the herring stock involve competition or predation by juvenile hatchery pink salmon on herring juveniles. Secondary factors identified in the analysis were poor nutrition in the winter, ocean (Gulf of Alaska) temperature in the winter, the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus, and the pathogen Ichthyophonus hoferi. The

  17. Generalized Weierstrass-Mandelbrot Function Model for Actual Stocks Markets Indexes with Nonlinear Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, L.; Yu, C.; Sun, J. Q.

    2015-03-01

    It is difficult to simulate the dynamical behavior of actual financial markets indexes effectively, especially when they have nonlinear characteristics. So it is significant to propose a mathematical model with these characteristics. In this paper, we investigate a generalized Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function (WMF) model with two nonlinear characteristics: fractal dimension D where 2 > D > 1.5 and Hurst exponent (H) where 1 > H > 0.5 firstly. And then we study the dynamical behavior of H for WMF as D and the spectrum of the time series γ change in three-dimensional space, respectively. Because WMF and the actual stock market indexes have two common features: fractal behavior using fractal dimension and long memory effect by Hurst exponent, we study the relationship between WMF and the actual stock market indexes. We choose a random value of γ and fixed value of D for WMF to simulate the S&P 500 indexes at different time ranges. As shown in the simulation results of three-dimensional space, we find that γ is important in WMF model and different γ may have the same effect for the nonlinearity of WMF. Then we calculate the skewness and kurtosis of actual Daily S&P 500 index in different time ranges which can be used to choose the value of γ. Based on these results, we choose appropriate γ, D and initial value into WMF to simulate Daily S&P 500 indexes. Using the fit line method in two-dimensional space for the simulated values, we find that the generalized WMF model is effective for simulating different actual stock market indexes in different time ranges. It may be useful for understanding the dynamical behavior of many different financial markets.

  18. A spatial model approach for assessing windbreak growth and carbon stocks.

    PubMed

    Hou, Qingjiang; Young, Linda J; Brandle, James R; Schoeneberger, Michele M

    2011-01-01

    Agroforestry, the deliberate integration of trees into agricultural operations, sequesters carbon (C) while providing valuable services on agricultural lands. However, methods to quantify present and projected C stocks in these open-grown woody systems are limited. As an initial step to address C accounting in agroforestry systems, a spatial Markov random field model for predicting the natural logarithm (log) of the mean aboveground volume of green ash ( Marsh.) within a shelterbelt, referred to as the log of aboveground volume, was developed using data from an earlier study and web-available soil and climate information. Windbreak characteristics, site, and climate variables were used to model the large-scale trend of the log of aboveground volume. The residuals from this initial model were correlated among sites up to 24 km from a point of interest. Therefore, a spatial dependence parameter was used to incorporate information from sites within 24 km into the prediction of the log of the aboveground volume. Age is an important windbreak characteristic in the model. Thus, the log of aboveground volume can be predicted for a given windbreak age and for values of other explanatory variables associated with a site of interest. Such predictions can be exponentiated to obtain predictions of aboveground volume for windbreaks without repeated inventory. With the capability of quantifying uncertainty, the model has the potential for large regional planning efforts and C stock assessments for many deciduous tree species used in windbreaks and riparian buffers once it is calibrated. PMID:21546670

  19. Methodology for Modeling Building Energy Performance across the Commercial Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Griffith, B.; Long, N.; Torcellini, P.; Judkoff, R.; Crawley, D.; Ryan, J.

    2008-03-01

    This report uses EnergyPlus simulations of each building in the 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) to document and demonstrate bottom-up methods of modeling the entire U.S. commercial buildings sector (EIA 2006). The ability to use a whole-building simulation tool to model the entire sector is of interest because the energy models enable us to answer subsequent 'what-if' questions that involve technologies and practices related to energy. This report documents how the whole-building models were generated from the building characteristics in 2003 CBECS and compares the simulation results to the survey data for energy use.

  20. Modelling carbon stocks and fluxes in the wood product sector: a comparative review.

    PubMed

    Brunet-Navarro, Pau; Jochheim, Hubert; Muys, Bart

    2016-07-01

    In addition to forest ecosystems, wood products are carbon pools that can be strategically managed to mitigate climate change. Wood product models (WPMs) simulating the carbon balance of wood production, use and end of life can complement forest growth models to evaluate the mitigation potential of the forest sector as a whole. WPMs can be used to compare scenarios of product use and explore mitigation strategies. A considerable number of WPMs have been developed in the last three decades, but there is no review available analysing their functionality and performance. This study analyses and compares 41 WPMs. One surprising initial result was that we discovered the erroneous implementation of a few concepts and assumptions in some of the models. We further described and compared the models using six model characteristics (bucking allocation, industrial processes, carbon pools, product removal, recycling and substitution effects) and three model-use characteristics (system boundaries, model initialization and evaluation of results). Using a set of indicators based on the model characteristics, we classified models using a hierarchical clustering technique and differentiated them according to their increasing degrees of complexity and varying levels of user support. For purposes of simulating carbon stock in wood products, models with a simple structure may be sufficient, but to compare climate change mitigation options, complex models are needed. The number of models has increased substantially over the last ten years, introducing more diversity and accuracy. Calculation of substitution effects and recycling has also become more prominent. However, the lack of data is still an important constraint for a more realistic estimation of carbon stocks and fluxes. Therefore, if the sector wants to demonstrate the environmental quality of its products, it should make it a priority to provide reliable life cycle inventory data, particularly regarding aspects of time and

  1. Iterative build OMIT maps: Map improvement by iterative model-building and refinement without model bias

    SciTech Connect

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mailstop M888, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, Building 64R0121, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Department of Haematology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0XY, England; Terwilliger, Thomas; Terwilliger, T.C.; Grosse-Kunstleve, Ralf Wilhelm; Afonine, P.V.; Moriarty, N.W.; Zwart, P.H.; Hung, L.-W.; Read, R.J.; Adams, P.D.

    2008-02-12

    A procedure for carrying out iterative model-building, density modification and refinement is presented in which the density in an OMIT region is essentially unbiased by an atomic model. Density from a set of overlapping OMIT regions can be combined to create a composite 'Iterative-Build' OMIT map that is everywhere unbiased by an atomic model but also everywhere benefiting from the model-based information present elsewhere in the unit cell. The procedure may have applications in the validation of specific features in atomic models as well as in overall model validation. The procedure is demonstrated with a molecular replacement structure and with an experimentally-phased structure, and a variation on the method is demonstrated by removing model bias from a structure from the Protein Data Bank.

  2. Modeling pollutant penetration across building envelopes

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, De-Ling; Nazaroff, William W.

    2001-04-01

    As air infiltrates through unintentional openings in building envelopes, pollutants may interact with adjacent surfaces. Such interactions can alter human exposure to air pollutants of outdoor origin. We present modeling explorations of the proportion of particles and reactive gases (e.g., ozone) that penetrate building envelopes as air enters through cracks and wall cavities. Calculations were performed for idealized rectangular cracks, assuming regular geometry, smooth inner crack surface and steady airflow. Particles of 0.1-1.0 {micro}m diameter are predicted to have the highest penetration efficiency, nearly unity for crack heights of 0.25 mm or larger, assuming a pressure difference of 4 Pa or greater and a flow path length of 3 cm or less. Supermicron and ultrafine particles are significantly removed by means of gravitational settling and Brownian diffusion, respectively. In addition to crack geometry, ozone penetration depends on its reactivity with crack surfaces, as parameterized by the reaction probability. For reaction probabilities less than {approx}10{sup -5}, penetration is complete for cracks heights greater than 1 mm. However, penetration through mm scale cracks is small if the reaction probability is {approx}10{sup -4} or greater. For wall cavities, fiberglass insulation is an efficient particle filter, but particles would penetrate efficiently through uninsulated wall cavities or through insulated cavities with significant airflow bypass. The ozone reaction probability on fiberglass fibers was measured to be 10{sup -7} for fibers previously exposed to high ozone levels and 6 x 10{sup -6} for unexposed fibers. Over this range, ozone penetration through fiberglass insulation would vary from >90% to {approx}10-40%. Thus, under many conditions penetration is high; however, there are realistic circumstances in which building envelopes can provide substantial pollutant removal. Not enough is yet known about the detailed nature of pollutant penetration

  3. Simulating Soil C Stock with the Process-based Model CQESTR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gollany, H.; Liang, Y.; Rickman, R.; Albrecht, S.; Follett, R.; Wilhelm, W.; Novak, J.; Douglas, C.

    2009-04-01

    The prospect of storing carbon (C) in soil, as soil organic matter (SOM), provides an opportunity for agriculture to contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while enhancing soil properties. Soil C models are useful for examining the complex interactions between crop, soil management practices and climate and their effects on long-term carbon storage or loss. The process-based carbon model CQESTR, pronounced ‘sequester,' was developed by USDA-ARS scientists at the Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, Oregon, USA. It computes the rate of biological decomposition of crop residues or organic amendments as they convert to SOM. CQESTR uses readily available field-scale data to assess long-term effects of cropping systems or crop residue removal on SOM accretion/loss in agricultural soil. Data inputs include weather, above- ground and below-ground biomass additions, N content of residues and amendments, soil properties, and management factors such as tillage and crop rotation. The model was calibrated using information from six long-term experiments across North America (Florence, SC, 19 yrs; Lincoln, NE, 26 yrs; Hoytville, OH, 31 yrs; Breton, AB, 60 yrs; Pendleton, OR, 76 yrs; and Columbia, MO, >100 yrs) having a range of soil properties and climate. CQESTR was validated using data from several additional long-term experiments (8 - 106 yrs) across North America having a range of SOM (7.3 - 57.9 g SOM/kg). Regression analysis of 306 pairs of predicted and measured SOM data under diverse climate, soil texture and drainage classes, and agronomic practices at 13 agricultural sites resulted in a linear relationship with an r2 of 0.95 (P < 0.0001) and a 95% confidence interval of 4.3 g SOM/kg. Estimated SOC values from CQESTR and IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were compared to observed values in three relatively long-term experiments (20 - 24 years). At one site, CQESTR and IPCC estimates of SOC stocks were

  4. Greed, fear and stock market dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank H.

    2004-11-01

    We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices show little pair correlation between successive daily changes, and (4) periods of low volatility alternate with periods of high volatility. A strong feature of the model is that stock prices completely evolve according to a deterministic low-dimensional nonlinear law of motion.

  5. Building phenomenological models of complex biological processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniels, Bryan; Nemenman, Ilya

    2009-11-01

    A central goal of any modeling effort is to make predictions regarding experimental conditions that have not yet been observed. Overly simple models will not be able to fit the original data well, but overly complex models are likely to overfit the data and thus produce bad predictions. Modern quantitative biology modeling efforts often err on the complexity side of this balance, using myriads of microscopic biochemical reaction processes with a priori unknown kinetic parameters to model relatively simple biological phenomena. In this work, we show how Bayesian model selection (which is mathematically similar to low temperature expansion in statistical physics) can be used to build coarse-grained, phenomenological models of complex dynamical biological processes, which have better predictive powers than microscopically correct, but poorely constrained mechanistic molecular models. We illustrate this on the example of a multiply-modifiable protein molecule, which is a simplified description of multiple biological systems, such as an immune receptors and an RNA polymerase complex. Our approach is similar in spirit to the phenomenological Landau expansion for the free energy in the theory of critical phenomena.

  6. The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchin, Oliver; Jänicke, Britta; Meier, Fred; Scherer, Dieter; Ziegler, Felix

    2016-04-01

    Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.

  7. Model requirements for estimating and reporting soil C stock changes in national greenhouse gas inventories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didion, Markus; Blujdea, Viorel; Grassi, Giacomo; Hernández, Laura; Jandl, Robert; Kriiska, Kaie; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Saint-André, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Globally, soils are the largest terrestrial store of carbon (C) and small changes may contribute significantly to the global C balance. Due to the potential implications for climate change, accurate and consistent estimates of C fluxes at the large-scale are important as recognized, for example, in international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Under the UNFCCC and also under the Kyoto Protocol it is required to report C balances annually. Most measurement-based soil inventories are currently not able to detect annual changes in soil C stocks consistently across space and representative at national scales. The use of models to obtain relevant estimates is considered an appropriate alternative under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Several soil carbon models have been developed but few models are suitable for a consistent application across larger-scales. Consistency is often limited by the lack of input data for models, which can result in biased estimates and, thus, the reporting criteria of accuracy (i.e., emission and removal estimates are systematically neither over nor under true emissions or removals) may be met. Based on a qualitative assessment of the ability to meet criteria established for GHG reporting under the UNFCCC including accuracy, consistency, comparability, completeness, and transparency, we identified the suitability of commonly used simulation models for estimating annual C stock changes in mineral soil in European forests. Among six discussed simulation models we found a clear trend toward models for providing quantitative precise site-specific estimates which may lead to biased estimates across space. To meet reporting needs for national GHG inventories, we conclude that there is a need for models producing qualitative realistic results in a transparent and comparable manner. Based on the application of one model along a gradient from Boreal forests in Finland to Mediterranean forests

  8. Managing critical materials with a technology-specific stocks and flows model.

    PubMed

    Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K; Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy

    2014-01-21

    The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model's potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%. PMID:24328245

  9. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm

  10. Impact of discontinuous harvesting on fishery dynamics in a stock-effort fishing model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Zhenyuan; Zou, Xingfu

    2015-02-01

    We consider a stock-effort fishing model with discontinuous harvesting strategies. Under some reasonable assumptions on the discontinuous harvesting function, we are able to confirm the well-posedness of the model, describe the structure of possible equilibria as well as establish the stability/instability of the equilibria. Most interestingly, we find that the solutions of the fishing model can arrive at a sliding mode in finite time. A qualitative analysis shows that the goal of maintaining the system at a sustainable equilibrium and optimizing the harvesting can be achieved by introducing the discontinuous harvesting strategies. From the viewpoint of optimal harvesting, we can obtain that discontinuous harvesting strategies are superior to continuous harvesting strategies, which are usually adopted in previous literature. The main difficulty resides in the discontinuity of the model, and is conquered by exploiting the theory of differential equations with discontinuous righthand sides and variable structure system theory.

  11. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  12. Photograph of model projected new hospital building and new landscaping ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Photograph of model projected new hospital building and new landscaping for area north of building 500. Model displayed on the mezzanine level of building 500. - Fitzsimons General Hospital, Bounded by East Colfax to south, Peoria Street to west, Denver City/County & Adams County Line to north, & U.S. Route 255 to east, Aurora, Adams County, CO

  13. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  14. Managing Critical Materials with a Technology-Specific Stocks and Flows Model

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model’s potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%. PMID:24328245

  15. A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2011-06-01

    Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

  16. Convergent modelling of past soil organic carbon stocks but divergent projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Z.; Wang, E.; Zheng, H.; Baldock, J. A.; Sun, O. J.; Shao, Q.

    2015-07-01

    Soil carbon (C) models are important tools for understanding soil C balance and projecting C stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly under global change. The initialization and/or parameterization of soil C models can vary among studies even when the same model and data set are used, causing potential uncertainties in projections. Although a few studies have assessed such uncertainties, it is yet unclear what these uncertainties are correlated with and how they change across varying environmental and management conditions. Here, applying a process-based biogeochemical model to 90 individual field experiments (ranging from 5 to 82 years of experimental duration) across the Australian cereal-growing regions, we demonstrated that well-designed optimization procedures enabled the model to accurately simulate changes in measured C stocks, but did not guarantee convergent forward projections (100 years). Major causes of the projection uncertainty were due to insufficient understanding of how microbial processes and soil C pool change to modulate C turnover. For a given site, the uncertainty significantly increased with the magnitude of future C input and years of the projection. Across sites, the uncertainty correlated positively with temperature but negatively with rainfall. On average, a 331 % uncertainty in projected C sequestration ability can be inferred in Australian agricultural soils. This uncertainty would increase further if projections were made for future warming and drying conditions. Future improvement in soil C modelling should focus on how the microbial community and its C use efficiency change in response to environmental changes, and better conceptualization of heterogeneous soil C pools and the C transformation among those pools.

  17. Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling methodology, projected market penetration, and impact of distributed generation with respect to offsetting future electricity needs and carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial buildings sector in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) reference case.

  18. SENCAR mouse skin tumorigenesis model versus other strains and stocks of mice

    SciTech Connect

    Slaga, T.J.

    1986-09-01

    The SENCAR mouse stock was selectively bred for eight generations for sensitivity to skin tumor induction by the two-stage tumorigenesis protocol using 7,12-dimethylbenz(a)anthracene (DMBA) as the initiator and 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) as the promoter. The SENCAR mouse was derived by crossing Charles River CD-1 mice with skin-tumor-sensitive mice (STS). The SENCAR mice are much more sensitive to both DMBA tumor initiation and TPA tumor promotion than CD-1, BALB/c, and DBA/2 mice. An even greater difference in the sensitivity to two-stage skin tumorigenesis is apparent between SENCAR and C57BL/6 mice when using DMBA-TPA treatment. However, the SENCAR and C57BL/6 mice have a similar tumor response to DMBA-benzoyl peroxide treatment, suggesting that TPA is not an effective promoter in C57BL/6 mice. The DBA/2 mice respond in a similar manner to the SENCAR mice when using N-methyl-N-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine (MNNG)-TPA treatment. The SENCAR mouse model provides a good dose-response relationship for many carcinogens used as tumor initiators and for many compounds used as tumor promoter. When compared to other stocks and strains of mice, the SENCAR mouse has one of the largest data bases for carcinogens and promoters.

  19. Stock management in hospital pharmacy using chance-constrained model predictive control.

    PubMed

    Jurado, I; Maestre, J M; Velarde, P; Ocampo-Martinez, C; Fernández, I; Tejera, B Isla; Prado, J R Del

    2016-05-01

    One of the most important problems in the pharmacy department of a hospital is stock management. The clinical need for drugs must be satisfied with limited work labor while minimizing the use of economic resources. The complexity of the problem resides in the random nature of the drug demand and the multiple constraints that must be taken into account in every decision. In this article, chance-constrained model predictive control is proposed to deal with this problem. The flexibility of model predictive control allows taking into account explicitly the different objectives and constraints involved in the problem while the use of chance constraints provides a trade-off between conservativeness and efficiency. The solution proposed is assessed to study its implementation in two Spanish hospitals. PMID:26724992

  20. Underestimation of soil carbon stocks by Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY models in boreal forest linked to overlooking site fertility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-04-01

    The soil organic carbon stock (SOC) changes estimated by the most process based soil carbon models (e.g. Yasso07, Q and CENTURY), needed for reporting of changes in soil carbon amounts for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by soil carbon management, can be biased if in a large mosaic of environments the models are missing a key factor driving SOC sequestration. To our knowledge soil nutrient status as a missing driver of these models was not tested in previous studies. Although, it's known that models fail to reconstruct the spatial variation and that soil nutrient status drives the ecosystem carbon use efficiency and soil carbon sequestration. We evaluated SOC stock estimates of Yasso07, Q and CENTURY process based models against the field data from Swedish Forest Soil National Inventories (3230 samples) organized by recursive partitioning method (RPART) into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions. These models worked for most soils with approximately average SOC stocks, but could not reproduce higher measured SOC stocks in our application. The Yasso07 and Q models that used only climate and litterfall input data and ignored soil properties generally agreed with two third of measurements. However, in comparison with measurements grouped according to the gradient of soil nutrient status we found that the models underestimated for the Swedish boreal forest soils with higher site fertility. Accounting for soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content) and structure (bulk density) in CENTURY model showed no improvement on carbon stock estimates, as CENTURY deviated in similar manner. We highlighted the mechanisms why models deviate from the measurements and the ways of considering soil nutrient status in further model development. Our analysis suggested that the models indeed lack other predominat drivers of SOC stabilization

  1. Energy savings modelling of re-tuning energy conservation measures in large office buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Fernandez, Nick; Katipamula, Srinivas; Wang, Weimin; Huang, Yunzhi; Liu, Guopeng

    2014-10-20

    Today, many large commercial buildings use sophisticated building automation systems (BASs) to manage a wide range of building equipment. While the capabilities of BASs have increased over time, many buildings still do not fully use the BAS’s capabilities and are not properly commissioned, operated or maintained, which leads to inefficient operation, increased energy use, and reduced lifetimes of the equipment. This paper investigates the energy savings potential of several common HVAC system re-tuning measures on a typical large office building, using the Department of Energy’s building energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. The baseline prototype model uses roughly as much energy as an average large office building in existing building stock, but does not utilize any re-tuning measures. Individual re-tuning measures simulated against this baseline include automatic schedule adjustments, damper minimum flow adjustments, thermostat adjustments, as well as dynamic resets (set points that change continuously with building and/or outdoor conditions) to static pressure, supply-air temperature, condenser water temperature, chilled and hot water temperature, and chilled and hot water differential pressure set points. Six combinations of these individual measures have been formulated – each designed to conform to limitations to implementation of certain individual measures that might exist in typical buildings. All the individual measures and combinations were simulated in 16 climate locations representative of specific U.S. climate zones. The modeling results suggest that the most effective energy savings measures are those that affect the demand-side of the building (air-systems and schedules). Many of the demand-side individual measures were capable of reducing annual total HVAC system energy consumption by over 20% in most cities that were modeled. Supply side measures affecting HVAC plant conditions were only modestly successful (less than 5% annual HVAC energy

  2. Building groundwater modeling capacity in Mongolia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Valder, Joshua F.; Carter, Janet M.; Anderson, Mark T.; Davis, Kyle W.; Haynes, Michelle A.; Dorjsuren Dechinlhundev

    2016-01-01

    Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia (fig. 1), is dependent on groundwater for its municipal and industrial water supply. The population of Mongolia is about 3 million people, with about one-half the population residing in or near Ulaanbaatar (World Population Review, 2016). Groundwater is drawn from a network of shallow wells in an alluvial aquifer along the Tuul River. Evidence indicates that current water use may not be sustainable from existing water sources, especially when factoring the projected water demand from a rapidly growing urban population (Ministry of Environment and Green Development, 2013). In response, the Government of Mongolia Ministry of Environment, Green Development, and Tourism (MEGDT) and the Freshwater Institute, Mongolia, requested technical assistance on groundwater modeling through the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Scientists from the USGS and USACE provided two workshops in 2015 to Mongolian hydrology experts on basic principles of groundwater modeling using the USGS groundwater modeling program MODFLOW-2005 (Harbaugh, 2005). The purpose of the workshops was to bring together representatives from the Government of Mongolia, local universities, technical experts, and other key stakeholders to build in-country capacity in hydrogeology and groundwater modeling.A preliminary steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed as part of the workshops to demonstrate groundwater modeling techniques to simulate groundwater conditions in alluvial deposits along the Tuul River in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar. ModelMuse (Winston, 2009) was used as the graphical user interface for MODFLOW for training purposes during the workshops. Basic and advanced groundwater modeling concepts included in the workshops were groundwater principles; estimating hydraulic properties; developing model grids, data sets, and MODFLOW input files; and viewing and evaluating MODFLOW output files. A key to success was

  3. Parameters estimation in marine ecosystem models: limitations of typical standing stock observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loeptien, Ulrike; Dietze, Heiner

    2015-04-01

    Marine biogeochemical models coupled to 3-dimensional numerical models of the climate system have matured to general tools employed to assess impacts of a warming world and to explore geo-engineering options. Typically, the nucleus of these biogeochemical modules is based on a set of partial differential equations which describe the interaction between prognostic variables such as nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and sinking detritus. The dynamics of those differential equations is governed by a set of parameters such as, e.g., the maximum growth rate of phytoplankton. These parameters are, per se, not known. A generic way to estimate these parameters in 3-dimensional (and computationally expensive) frameworks are trial-and-error exercises where parameters are changed until a "reasonable" similarity with observed standing stocks of prognostic variables is achieved. Based on recent advances in compute hardware, offline techniques and optimization the development of more objective approaches to estimate parameters are underway. Here we add to the ongoing development by exploring with twin experiments (i.e. synthetic "observations") the demands on observations that would allow for a more objective estimation of model parameters. We start with parameter retrieval experiments based on "perfect" (synthetic) observations of standing stocks which we, step by step, distort to approach realistic conditions and confirm our findings with real-world observations. We illustrate that even modest noise (10%) inherent to observations can forestall the parameter retrieval already and that, e.g., the parameters occurring in the hyperbolic Michaelis-Menten (MM) formulation (that is commonly used to describe nutrient and light limitation of phytoplankton growth) are particularly difficult to constrain.

  4. Modelling stock order flows with non-homogeneous intensities from high-frequency data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorshenin, Andrey K.; Korolev, Victor Yu.; Zeifman, Alexander I.; Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Chertok, Andrey V.; Evstafyev, Artem I.; Korchagin, Alexander Yu.

    2013-10-01

    A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of such information system as the limit order book in financial markets. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of buy and sell orders that determine the price discovery mechanism. The proposed multiplicative model of stochastic intensities makes it possible to analyze the characteristics of the order flows as well as the instantaneous proportion of the forces of buyers and sellers, that is, the imbalance process, without modelling the external information background. The proposed model gives the opportunity to link the micro-scale (high-frequency) dynamics of the limit order book with the macro-scale models of stock price processes of the form of subordinated Wiener processes by means of limit theorems of probability theory and hence, to use the normal variance-mean mixture models of the corresponding heavy-tailed distributions. The approach can be useful in different areas with similar properties (e.g., in plasma physics).

  5. Model Predictive Control for the Operation of Building Cooling Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Yudong; Borrelli, Francesco; Hencey, Brandon; Coffey, Brian; Bengea, Sorin; Haves, Philip

    2010-06-29

    A model-based predictive control (MPC) is designed for optimal thermal energy storage in building cooling systems. We focus on buildings equipped with a water tank used for actively storing cold water produced by a series of chillers. Typically the chillers are operated at night to recharge the storage tank in order to meet the building demands on the following day. In this paper, we build on our previous work, improve the building load model, and present experimental results. The experiments show that MPC can achieve reduction in the central plant electricity cost and improvement of its efficiency.

  6. Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heineke, J. M.

    1975-01-01

    A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

  7. User's guide for the stock-recruitment model validation program. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1985

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, S.W.; Kirk, B.L.; Goodyear, C.P.

    1982-06-01

    SRVAL is a FORTRAN IV computer code designed to aid in assessing the validity of curve-fits of the linearized Ricker stock-recruitment model, modified to incorporate multiple-age spawners and to include an environmental variable, to variously processed annual catch-per-unit effort statistics for a fish population. It is sometimes asserted that curve-fits of this kind can be used to determine the sensitivity of fish populations to such man-induced stresses as entrainment and impingement at power plants. The SRVAL code was developed to test such assertions. It was utilized in testimony written in connection with the Hudson River Power Case (US Environmental Protection Agency, Region II). This testimony was recently published as a NUREG report. Here, a user's guide for SRVAL is presented.

  8. Predicting the microbial exposure risks in urban floods using GIS, building simulation, and microbial models.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Jonathon; Biddulph, Phillip; Davies, Michael; Lai, Ka man

    2013-01-01

    London is expected to experience more frequent periods of intense rainfall and tidal surges, leading to an increase in the risk of flooding. Damp and flooded dwellings can support microbial growth, including mould, bacteria, and protozoa, as well as persistence of flood-borne microorganisms. The amount of time flooded dwellings remain damp will depend on the duration and height of the flood, the contents of the flood water, the drying conditions, and the building construction, leading to particular properties and property types being prone to lingering damp and human pathogen growth or persistence. The impact of flooding on buildings can be simulated using Heat Air and Moisture (HAM) models of varying complexity in order to understand how water can be absorbed and dry out of the building structure. This paper describes the simulation of the drying of building archetypes representative of the English building stock using the EnergyPlus based tool 'UCL-HAMT' in order to determine the drying rates of different abandoned structures flooded to different heights and during different seasons. The results are mapped out using GIS in order to estimate the spatial risk across London in terms of comparative flood vulnerability, as well as for specific flood events. Areas of South and East London were found to be particularly vulnerable to long-term microbial exposure following major flood events. PMID:23266909

  9. DEVELOPMENT OF A FLEXIBLE, MULTIZONE, MULTIFAMILY BUILDING SIMULATION MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Malhotra, Mini; Im, Piljae

    2012-01-01

    Weatherization of multifamily buildings is gaining increased attention in the U.S. Available energy audit tools for multifamily buildings were found to need desirable improvements. On the wish list of field experts for enhanced features was the basic ability to model multizone buildings (i.e., one thermal zone per dwelling unit) with simplified user inputs, which allows a better analysis of decentralized and centralized HVAC and domestic hot water systems of multifamily buildings without having to create detailed building models. To address the desired capabilities, development of an enhanced energy audit tool was begun in 2011. The tool is a strategically structured, flexible, one-zone-per-unit, DOE-2.1e model coupled with a simplified user interface to model small to large multifamily buildings with decentralized or centralized systems and associated energy measures. This paper describes the modeling concept and its implementation.

  10. An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, J. R.; Huang, J. P.; Hui, P. M.

    2013-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that there exist investors who adopt momentum strategies in real stock markets. Understanding the momentum behavior is of both academic and practical importance. For this purpose, we propose and study a simple agent-based model of trading incorporating momentum investors and random investors. The random investors trade randomly all the time. The momentum investors could be idle, buying or selling, and they decide on their action by implementing an action threshold that assesses the most recent price movement. The model is able to reproduce some of the stylized facts observed in real markets, including the fat-tails in returns, weak long-term correlation and scaling behavior in the kurtosis of returns. An analytic treatment of the model relates the model parameters to several quantities that can be extracted from real data sets. To illustrate how the model can be applied, we show that real market data can be used to constrain the model parameters, which in turn provide information on the behavior of momentum investors in different markets.

  11. Controls of soil carbon stock development – comparison of Swedish forest soil carbon inventory measurements and two process based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina; Stendahl, Johan; Hashimoto, Shoji; Dahlgren, Jonas; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2015-04-01

    The key question in greenhouse gas research, whether the soils continue to sequester carbon under the conditions of climate change, is mainly evaluated by process based modelling. However, the models based on key processes of carbon cycle ignore more complex environmental effects for the sake of simplicity. In our study, based on extensive measurements of Swedish forest soil carbon inventory, we used the recursive partitioning and boosted regression trees methods to identify the governing controls of soil carbon stocks, and for these controls we compared the carbon stocks of measurements with carbon estimates of Yasso07 and CENTURY state of art models. The models were strongly vegetation and weather driven, whereas the soil carbon stocks of measurements were controlled mainly by the soil factors (e.g. cation exchange capacity, C/N ratio). Contrary to our expectation, the more complex CENTURY, which indirectly accounted for the exchangeable cations by incorporating the clay content into the model structure, still heavily depended on the amount of litter input and generally performed worse, than simpler Yasso07, that ignored the soil properties. When estimating the carbon stock for the specific soil type management, the soil properties should be considered while keeping the plant-weather related processes and parameters in their calibrated optimum.

  12. A View on Future Building System Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Wetter, Michael

    2011-04-01

    This chapter presents what a future environment for building system modeling and simulation may look like. As buildings continue to require increased performance and better comfort, their energy and control systems are becoming more integrated and complex. We therefore focus in this chapter on the modeling, simulation and analysis of building energy and control systems. Such systems can be classified as heterogeneous systems because they involve multiple domains, such as thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, electrical systems, control systems and communication systems. Also, they typically involve multiple temporal and spatial scales, and their evolution can be described by coupled differential equations, discrete equations and events. Modeling and simulating such systems requires a higher level of abstraction and modularisation to manage the increased complexity compared to what is used in today's building simulation programs. Therefore, the trend towards more integrated building systems is likely to be a driving force for changing the status quo of today's building simulation programs. Thischapter discusses evolving modeling requirements and outlines a path toward a future environment for modeling and simulation of heterogeneous building systems.A range of topics that would require many additional pages of discussion has been omitted. Examples include computational fluid dynamics for air and particle flow in and around buildings, people movement, daylight simulation, uncertainty propagation and optimisation methods for building design and controls. For different discussions and perspectives on the future of building modeling and simulation, we refer to Sahlin (2000), Augenbroe (2001) and Malkawi and Augenbroe (2004).

  13. Estimating Forest Carbon Stock Dynamics from Forest Inventories, Disturbance Data and Simulation Models: An Integrated Analysis for British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurz, W. A.; Beukema, S. J.; Robinson, D. C.; Apps, M. J.

    2001-12-01

    Forest inventories and growth and yield projection systems are an integral part of modern forest management. This information is commonly used for the long-term planning of annual allowable cuts and timber supply analysis. A strategy for the use of such information in a comprehensive, regional carbon budget model was developed and implemented for British Columbia, Canada. Data readily accessible from forest information systems include the area, stratification and attributes (including merchantable volume) of forests. Growth and yield tables or empirical models provide the required information on stand dynamics. Disturbance statistics (harvest, fire, insects) describe the dynamics of the forest area. Temporary and permanent sample plots provide millions of tree measurements that were used in the conversion of volume to biomass estimates. Methods previously developed for the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) were used to calculate belowground biomass and to establish the various dead organic matter pools. Inventory data are nearly complete, except for a small portion of the total forest area. Land-use change statistics are available for forest roads, but not yet for other causes of land-use change. A modified version of the CBM-CFS2 was used to calculate C stocks and stock changes for the period 2000 to 2032. Results indicate that ecosystem C stocks in the timber harvest land base are changing very little, with between-year variability of - 20 to + 20 Tg C / year. In contrast, ecosystem C stocks in the non-timber harvest land base are increasing at a rate of about 100 Tg C / year, largely because of the absence of harvesting and the assumed rates of future fire and insect disturbances, which could be the result of protection efforts. Actual disturbance rates, observed in future years, could have large impacts on C stock changes. Annual changes in C stocks will also be influenced by climate variability. Growth and yield models predict

  14. A new baseline of organic carbon stock in European agricultural soils using a modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Lugato, Emanuele; Panagos, Panos; Bampa, Francesca; Jones, Arwyn; Montanarella, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Proposed European policy in the agricultural sector will place higher emphasis on soil organic carbon (SOC), both as an indicator of soil quality and as a means to offset CO2 emissions through soil carbon (C) sequestration. Despite detailed national SOC data sets in several European Union (EU) Member States, a consistent C stock estimation at EU scale remains problematic. Data are often not directly comparable, different methods have been used to obtain values (e.g. sampling, laboratory analysis) and access may be restricted. Therefore, any evolution of EU policies on C accounting and sequestration may be constrained by a lack of an accurate SOC estimation and the availability of tools to carry out scenario analysis, especially for agricultural soils. In this context, a comprehensive model platform was established at a pan-European scale (EU + Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Norway) using the agro-ecosystem SOC model CENTURY. Almost 164 000 combinations of soil-climate-land use were computed, including the main arable crops, orchards and pasture. The model was implemented with the main management practices (e.g. irrigation, mineral and organic fertilization, tillage) derived from official statistics. The model results were tested against inventories from the European Environment and Observation Network (EIONET) and approximately 20 000 soil samples from the 2009 LUCAS survey, a monitoring project aiming at producing the first coherent, comprehensive and harmonized top-soil data set of the EU based on harmonized sampling and analytical methods. The CENTURY model estimation of the current 0-30 cm SOC stock of agricultural soils was 17.63 Gt; the model uncertainty estimation was below 36% in half of the NUTS2 regions considered. The model predicted an overall increase of this pool according to different climate-emission scenarios up to 2100, with C loss in the south and east of the area

  15. Building Energy Modeling: A Data-Driven Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Can

    Buildings consume nearly 50% of the total energy in the United States, which drives the need to develop high-fidelity models for building energy systems. Extensive methods and techniques have been developed, studied, and applied to building energy simulation and forecasting, while most of work have focused on developing dedicated modeling approach for generic buildings. In this study, an integrated computationally efficient and high-fidelity building energy modeling framework is proposed, with the concentration on developing a generalized modeling approach for various types of buildings. First, a number of data-driven simulation models are reviewed and assessed on various types of computationally expensive simulation problems. Motivated by the conclusion that no model outperforms others if amortized over diverse problems, a meta-learning based recommendation system for data-driven simulation modeling is proposed. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework on the building energy system, an extended application of the recommendation system for short-term building energy forecasting is deployed on various buildings. Finally, Kalman filter-based data fusion technique is incorporated into the building recommendation system for on-line energy forecasting. Data fusion enables model calibration to update the state estimation in real-time, which filters out the noise and renders more accurate energy forecast. The framework is composed of two modules: off-line model recommendation module and on-line model calibration module. Specifically, the off-line model recommendation module includes 6 widely used data-driven simulation models, which are ranked by meta-learning recommendation system for off-line energy modeling on a given building scenario. Only a selective set of building physical and operational characteristic features is needed to complete the recommendation task. The on-line calibration module effectively addresses system uncertainties, where data fusion on

  16. Bayesian Analysis of the Conditional Correlation Between Stock Index Returns with Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pajor, A.

    2006-11-01

    In the paper we compare the modelling ability of discrete-time multivariate Stochastic Volatility (SV) models to describe the conditional correlations between stock index returns. We consider four tri-variate SV models, which differ in the structure of the conditional covariance matrix. Specifications with zero, constant and time-varying conditional correlations are taken into account. As an example we study tri-variate volatility models for the daily log returns on the WIG, S&P 500, and FTSE 100 indexes. In order to formally compare the relative explanatory power of SV specifications we use the Bayesian principles of comparing statistic models. Our results are based on the Bayes factors and implemented through Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. The results indicate that the most adequate specifications are those that allow for time-varying conditional correlations and that have as many latent processes as there are conditional variances and covariances. The empirical results clearly show that the data strongly reject the assumption of constant conditional correlations.

  17. Iterative model-building, structure refinement, and density modification with the PHENIX AutoBuild Wizard

    SciTech Connect

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mailstop M888, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, Building 64R0121, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Department of Haematology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0XY, England; Terwilliger, Thomas; Terwilliger, T.C.; Grosse-Kunstleve, Ralf Wilhelm; Afonine, P.V.; Moriarty, N.W.; Zwart, P.H.; Hung, L.-W.; Read, R.J.; Adams, P.D.

    2007-04-29

    The PHENIX AutoBuild Wizard is a highly automated tool for iterative model-building, structure refinement and density modification using RESOLVE or TEXTAL model-building, RESOLVE statistical density modification, and phenix.refine structure refinement. Recent advances in the AutoBuild Wizard and phenix.refine include automated detection and application of NCS from models as they are built, extensive model completion algorithms, and automated solvent molecule picking. Model completion algorithms in the AutoBuild Wizard include loop-building, crossovers between chains in different models of a structure, and side-chain optimization. The AutoBuild Wizard has been applied to a set of 48 structures at resolutions ranging from 1.1 {angstrom} to 3.2 {angstrom}, resulting in a mean R-factor of 0.24 and a mean free R factor of 0.29. The R-factor of the final model is dependent on the quality of the starting electron density, and relatively independent of resolution.

  18. Complementarity of Historic Building Information Modelling and Geographic Information Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Koehl, M.; Grussenmeyer, P.; Macher, H.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we discuss the potential of integrating both semantically rich models from Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to build the detailed 3D historic model. BIM contributes to the creation of a digital representation having all physical and functional building characteristics in several dimensions, as e.g. XYZ (3D), time and non-architectural information that are necessary for construction and management of buildings. GIS has potential in handling and managing spatial data especially exploring spatial relationships and is widely used in urban modelling. However, when considering heritage modelling, the specificity of irregular historical components makes it problematic to create the enriched model according to its complex architectural elements obtained from point clouds. Therefore, some open issues limiting the historic building 3D modelling will be discussed in this paper: how to deal with the complex elements composing historic buildings in BIM and GIS environment, how to build the enriched historic model, and why to construct different levels of details? By solving these problems, conceptualization, documentation and analysis of enriched Historic Building Information Modelling are developed and compared to traditional 3D models aimed primarily for visualization.

  19. Modeling weather and stocking rate threshold effects on forage and steer production in northern mixed-grass prairie

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Model evaluations of forage production and yearling steer weight gain (SWG) responses to stocking density (SD) and seasonal weather patterns are presented for semi-arid northern mixed-grass prairie. We used the improved Great Plains Framework for Agricultural Resource Management-Range (GPFARM-Range)...

  20. Vibration Response of Multi Storey Building Using Finite Element Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chik, T. N. T.; Zakaria, M. F.; Remali, M. A.; Yusoff, N. A.

    2016-07-01

    Interaction between building, type of foundation and the geotechnical parameter of ground may trigger a significant effect on the building. In general, stiffer foundations resulted in higher natural frequencies of the building-soil system and higher input frequencies are often associated with other ground. Usually, vibrations transmitted to the buildings by ground borne are often noticeable and can be felt. It might affect the building and become worse if the vibration level is not controlled. UTHM building is prone to the ground borne vibration due to closed distance from the main road, and the construction activities adjacent to the buildings. This paper investigates the natural frequency and vibration mode of multi storey office building with the presence of foundation system and comparison between both systems. Finite element modelling (FEM) package software of LUSAS is used to perform the vibration analysis of the building. The building is modelled based on the original plan with the foundation system on the structure model. The FEM results indicated that the structure which modelled with rigid base have high natural frequency compare to the structure with foundation system. These maybe due to soil structure interaction and also the damping of the system which related to the amount of energy dissipated through the foundation soil. Thus, this paper suggested that modelling with soil is necessary to demonstrate the soil influence towards vibration response to the structure.

  1. Houston biosecurity: building a national model.

    PubMed Central

    Casscells, Ward; Mirhaji, Parsa; Lillibridge, Scott; Madjid, Mohammad

    2004-01-01

    On September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda terrorists committed an atrocity when they used domestic jetliners to crash into buildings in New York City and Washington, DC, killing thousands of people. In October 2001, another act of savagery occurred, this time using anthrax, not airplanes, to take innocent lives. Each incident demonstrates the vulnerability of an open society, and Americans are left to wonder how such acts can be prevented. Two years later, Al Qaeda operatives are reportedly regrouping, recruiting, and changing their tactics to distribute money and messages to operatives around the world. Many experts believe that terrorist attacks are inevitable. Every city is vulnerable to an attack, and none are fully prepared to handle the residual impact of a biological or chemical attack. A survey conducted by the Cable News Network (CNN) in January 2002, studied 30 major US cities, ranking them based on 6 statistical indices of vulnerability. Thirteen cities were deemed better prepared than Houston, 10 were in a similar state of preparedness, and only 6 were less prepared than Houston. We will discuss the protective measures that have been put in place in Houston, and future steps to take. Other cities can model Houston's experience to develop similar plans nation-wide. PMID:17060983

  2. Building Energy Model Development for Retrofit Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Chasar, David; McIlvaine, Janet; Blanchard, Jeremy; Widder, Sarah H.; Baechler, Michael C.

    2012-09-30

    Based on previous research conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Florida Solar Energy Center providing technical assistance to implement 22 deep energy retrofits across the nation, 6 homes were selected in Florida and Texas for detailed post-retrofit energy modeling to assess realized energy savings (Chandra et al, 2012). However, assessing realized savings can be difficult for some homes where pre-retrofit occupancy and energy performance are unknown. Initially, savings had been estimated using a HERS Index comparison for these homes. However, this does not account for confounding factors such as occupancy and weather. This research addresses a method to more reliably assess energy savings achieved in deep energy retrofits for which pre-retrofit utility bills or occupancy information in not available. A metered home, Riverdale, was selected as a test case for development of a modeling procedure to account occupancy and weather factors, potentially creating more accurate estimates of energy savings. This “true up” procedure was developed using Energy Gauge USA software and post-retrofit homeowner information and utility bills. The 12 step process adjusts the post-retrofit modeling results to correlate with post-retrofit utility bills and known occupancy information. The “trued” post retrofit model is then used to estimate pre-retrofit energy consumption by changing the building efficiency characteristics to reflect the pre-retrofit condition, but keeping all weather and occupancy-related factors the same. This creates a pre-retrofit model that is more comparable to the post-retrofit energy use profile and can improve energy savings estimates. For this test case, a home for which pre- and post- retrofit utility bills were available was selected for comparison and assessment of the accuracy of the “true up” procedure. Based on the current method, this procedure is quite time intensive. However, streamlined processing spreadsheets or

  3. Landscape scale estimation of soil carbon stock using 3D modelling.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, F; Corstanje, R; Mayr, T

    2014-07-15

    Soil C is the largest pool of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, and yet the processes of C accumulation, transformation and loss are poorly accounted for. This, in part, is due to the fact that soil C is not uniformly distributed through the soil depth profile and most current landscape level predictions of C do not adequately account the vertical distribution of soil C. In this study, we apply a method based on simple soil specific depth functions to map the soil C stock in three-dimensions at landscape scale. We used soil C and bulk density data from the Soil Survey for England and Wales to map an area in the West Midlands region of approximately 13,948 km(2). We applied a method which describes the variation through the soil profile and interpolates this across the landscape using well established soil drivers such as relief, land cover and geology. The results indicate that this mapping method can effectively reproduce the observed variation in the soil profiles samples. The mapping results were validated using cross validation and an independent validation. The cross-validation resulted in an R(2) of 36% for soil C and 44% for BULKD. These results are generally in line with previous validated studies. In addition, an independent validation was undertaken, comparing the predictions against the National Soil Inventory (NSI) dataset. The majority of the residuals of this validation are between ± 5% of soil C. This indicates high level of accuracy in replicating topsoil values. In addition, the results were compared to a previous study estimating the carbon stock of the UK. We discuss the implications of our results within the context of soil C loss factors such as erosion and the impact on regional C process models. PMID:24636454

  4. Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothenstein, R.; Pawelzik, K.

    2003-08-01

    We present a novel microscopic stock market model consisting of a large number of random agents modeling traders in a market. Each agent is characterized by a set of parameters that serve to make iterated predictions of two successive returns. The future price is determined according to the offer and the demand of all agents. The system evolves by redistributing the capital among the agents in each trading cycle. Without noise the dynamics of this system is nearly regular and thereby fails to reproduce the stochastic return fluctuations observed in real markets. However, when in each cycle a small amount of noise is introduced we find the typical features of real financial time series like fat-tails of the return distribution and large temporal correlations in the volatility without significant correlations in the price returns. Introducing the noise by an evolutionary process leads to different scalings of the return distributions that depend on the definition of fitness. Because our realistic model has only very few parameters, and the results appear to be robust with respect to the noise level and the number of agents we expect that our framework may serve as new paradigm for modeling self-generated return fluctuations in markets.

  5. UPDATING THE FREIGHT TRUCK STOCK ADJUSTMENT MODEL: 1997 VEHICLE INVENTORY AND USE SURVEY DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, S.C.

    2000-11-16

    The Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Freight Truck Stock Adjustment Model (FTSAM) was created in 1995 relying heavily on input data from the 1992 Economic Census, Truck Inventory and Use Survey (TIUS). The FTSAM is part of the NEMS Transportation Sector Model, which provides baseline energy projections and analyzes the impacts of various technology scenarios on consumption, efficiency, and carbon emissions. The base data for the FTSAM can be updated every five years as new Economic Census information is released. Because of expertise in using the TIUS database, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was asked to assist the EIA when the new Economic Census data were available. ORNL provided the necessary base data from the 1997 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) and other sources to update the FTSAM. The next Economic Census will be in the year 2002. When those data become available, the EIA will again want to update the FTSAM using the VIUS. This report, which details the methodology of estimating and extracting data from the 1997 VIUS Microdata File, should be used as a guide for generating the data from the next VIUS so that the new data will be as compatible as possible with the data in the model.

  6. A Comparison of Two Balance Calibration Model Building Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLoach, Richard; Ulbrich, Norbert

    2007-01-01

    Simulated strain-gage balance calibration data is used to compare the accuracy of two balance calibration model building methods for different noise environments and calibration experiment designs. The first building method obtains a math model for the analysis of balance calibration data after applying a candidate math model search algorithm to the calibration data set. The second building method uses stepwise regression analysis in order to construct a model for the analysis. Four balance calibration data sets were simulated in order to compare the accuracy of the two math model building methods. The simulated data sets were prepared using the traditional One Factor At a Time (OFAT) technique and the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) approach. Random and systematic errors were introduced in the simulated calibration data sets in order to study their influence on the math model building methods. Residuals of the fitted calibration responses and other statistical metrics were compared in order to evaluate the calibration models developed with different combinations of noise environment, experiment design, and model building method. Overall, predicted math models and residuals of both math model building methods show very good agreement. Significant differences in model quality were attributable to noise environment, experiment design, and their interaction. Generally, the addition of systematic error significantly degraded the quality of calibration models developed from OFAT data by either method, but MDOE experiment designs were more robust with respect to the introduction of a systematic component of the unexplained variance.

  7. Estimation of the regional stock of residential buildings as a basis for a comparative risk assessment in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleist, L.; Thieken, A. H.; Köhler, P.; Müller, M.; Seifert, I.; Borst, D.; Werner, U.

    2006-06-01

    One important prerequisite for a comparable quantitative risk assessment for different types of hazards (e.g., earthquakes, windstorms and floods) is the use of a common database about and financial appraisal of the assets at risk. For damage assessments it is necessary to represent the values at risk on a regional disaggregated scale and to intersect them with hazard scenarios. This paper presents a methodology and results of a financial appraisal of residential buildings for all communities in Germany. The calculated values are defined as replacement values for the reference year 2000. The resulting average replacement costs for residential buildings per inhabitant amount to EUR 46 600, with considerable differences between communities. The inventory can be used for the calculations of direct losses from various natural disasters within the project "Risk Map Germany''.

  8. An inventory model with linear holding cost and stock-dependent demand for non-instantaneous deteriorating items

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Satish; Malik, A. K.; Sharma, Abhishek; Yadav, S. K.; Singh, Yashveer

    2016-03-01

    The importance of inventory models with non-instantaneously deteriorating items in the management system has been discussed. The holding cost is taken as in linear function of time and demand is stock dependent. For this inventory model, we obtained the optimal order quantity and the total present value of profits. Further, optimality and sensitivity analysis of the optimal profit of the inventory model with key constraints is followed with the help of numerical example.

  9. A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Baochao; Liu, Qun; Zhang, Kui; Baset, Abdul; Memon, Aamir Mahmood; Memon, Khadim Hussain; Han, Yanan

    2016-01-01

    A continuous time delay-diff erence model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes. The southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world. The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock. However, the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism. In this study, we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) species, which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery. It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore (T. alalunga) fishery. CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of (21 510 t, 23 118t). The catch in 2011 (24 100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio (F 2011/F MSY) is higher than 1.0. The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock. The CTDDM treats the recruitment, the growth, and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.

  10. A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Baochao; Liu, Qun; Zhang, Kui; Baset, Abdul; Memon, Aamir Mahmood; Memon, Khadim Hussain; Han, Yanan

    2016-09-01

    A continuous time delay-diff erence model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes. The southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world. The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock. However, the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism. In this study, we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore ( T. alalunga) species, which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery. It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore ( T. alalunga) fishery. CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of (21 510 t, 23 118t). The catch in 2011 (24 100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio ( F 2011/ F MSY) is higher than 1.0. The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock. The CTDDM treats the recruitment, the growth, and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.

  11. 39. Photocopy of building model photograph, ca. 1974, photographer unknown. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    39. Photocopy of building model photograph, ca. 1974, photographer unknown. Original photograph property of United States Air Force, 21" Space Command. CAPE COD AIR STATION PAVE PAWS FACILITY MODEL - SHOWING "A" AND "B" FACES. - Cape Cod Air Station, Technical Facility-Scanner Building & Power Plant, Massachusetts Military Reservation, Sandwich, Barnstable County, MA

  12. 40. Photocopy of building model photograph, ca., 1974, photographer unknown. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    40. Photocopy of building model photograph, ca., 1974, photographer unknown. Original photograph property of United States Air Force, 21" Space Command. CAPE COD AIR STATION PAVE PAWS FACILITY MODEL - ELEVATION SHOWING FLOOR AND EQUIPMENT LAYOUT. - Cape Cod Air Station, Technical Facility-Scanner Building & Power Plant, Massachusetts Military Reservation, Sandwich, Barnstable County, MA

  13. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Building Administrator. Edition III

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching, learning, and school leadership. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Building Administrator Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all building administrators improve.…

  14. Digital Learning Material for Model Building in Molecular Biology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aegerter-Wilmsen, Tinri; Janssen, Fred; Hartog, Rob; Bisseling, Ton

    2005-01-01

    Building models to describe processes forms an essential part of molecular biology research. However, in molecular biology curricula little attention is generally being paid to the development of this skill. In order to provide students the opportunity to improve their model building skills, we decided to develop a number of digital cases about…

  15. Developing Parametric Building Models - the Gandis Use Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaller, W.; Krispel, U.; Havemann, S.; Redi, I.; Redi, A.; Fellner, D. W.

    2011-09-01

    In the course of a project related to green building design, we have created a group of eight parametric building models that can be manipulated interactively with respect to dimensions, number of floors, and a few other parameters. We report on the commonalities and differences between the models and the abstractions that we were able to identify.

  16. Climate change impacts on carbon stocks of Mediterranean soils: a CarboSOIL model application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; de la Rosa, Diego; González-Peñaloza, Félix A.; Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Anaya-Romero, María

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean area is among the most sensible regions to climate change and large increases in temperature as well as drought periods and heavy rainfall events have been forecasted in the next decades. Soil organic C (SOC) prevents from soil erosion and desertification and enhances bio-diversity. Therefore, soil C accumulation capacity should be considered regarding to adaptation strategies to climate change in view of the high resilience of soils with an adequate level of organic C to a warming, drying climate. In this research we propose a new methodology to predict SOC contents and changes under different climate change scenarios: CarboSoil model. CarboSOIL model is part of the land evaluation decision support system MicroLEIS DSS and was designed as a GIS tool to predict SOC stored at different depths (0-25, 25-50, 50-75 and 0-75 cm). The model includes site, land use, climate and soil variables, and was trained and validated in two Mediterranean areas (Andalusia, S Spain, and Valencia, E Spain, respectively) and applied in different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) according to different Global Climate Models (BCCR-BCM2, CNRMCM3 and ECHAM5) downscaled for the region of Andalusia. Output data were linked to spatial datasets (soil and land use) and spatial analysis was performed to quantify organic C stocks for different soil types under a range of land uses. Results highlight the negative impact of climate change on SOC. In particular, SOC contents are expected to decrease severely in the medium-high emissions A2 scenario by 2100. There is an overall trend towards decreasing of organic C stocks in the upper soil sections (0-25 cm and 25-50 cm) of most soil types. In Regosols under "open spaces" 80.4% of the current SOC is predicted to be lost in 2100 under the A2 scenario. CarboSOIL has proved its ability to predict the short, intermediate and long-term trends (2040s, 2070s and 2100s) of SOC dynamics and sequestration under projected future scenarios of

  17. Perception-based shape retrieval for 3D building models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Man; Zhang, Liqiang; Takis Mathiopoulos, P.; Ding, Yusi; Wang, Hao

    2013-01-01

    With the help of 3D search engines, a large number of 3D building models can be retrieved freely online. A serious disadvantage of most rotation-insensitive shape descriptors is their inability to distinguish between two 3D building models which are different at their main axes, but appear similar when one of them is rotated. To resolve this problem, we present a novel upright-based normalization method which not only correctly rotates such building models, but also greatly simplifies and accelerates the abstraction and the matching of building models' shape descriptors. Moreover, the abundance of architectural styles significantly hinders the effective shape retrieval of building models. Our research has shown that buildings with different designs are not well distinguished by the widely recognized shape descriptors for general 3D models. Motivated by this observation and to further improve the shape retrieval quality, a new building matching method is introduced and analyzed based on concepts found in the field of perception theory and the well-known Light Field descriptor. The resulting normalized building models are first classified using the qualitative shape descriptors of Shell and Unevenness which outline integral geometrical and topological information. These models are then put in on orderly fashion with the help of an improved quantitative shape descriptor which we will term as Horizontal Light Field Descriptor, since it assembles detailed shape characteristics. To accurately evaluate the proposed methodology, an enlarged building shape database which extends previous well-known shape benchmarks was implemented as well as a model retrieval system supporting inputs from 2D sketches and 3D models. Various experimental performance evaluation results have shown that, as compared to previous methods, retrievals employing the proposed matching methodology are faster and more consistent with human recognition of spatial objects. In addition these performance

  18. Modelled effects of primary and secondary production enhancement by seamounts on local fish stocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morato, Telmo; Bulman, Cathy; Pitcher, Tony J.

    2009-12-01

    This paper addresses how large aggregations of fish found on many seamounts are sustained. We used a generic seamount ecosystem model from the Northeast Atlantic to examine the impact of a potential increase of local primary production on higher trophic levels, to quantify the immigration of allochthonous micronekton that would be required to maintain a "typical" seamount community, and to quantify if the necessary immigration ratios could be supported by local oceanographic conditions. Our simulation predictions indicate a lack of autochthonous resources in the system to support large amounts of seamount aggregating fish. In other words, autochthonous seamount production may be responsible for sustaining only a small amount of its total biomass. Additionally, our study supports the idea that enhancement of primary productivity also cannot sustain large aggregations of seamount fish. Our seamount model, which took into account high abundances of fish, marine mammals, seabirds and tuna, required a total immigration of allochthonous micronekton of 95.2 t km -2 yr -1 less than the potential available biomass after considering the immigration of prey based upon average current velocities and prey standing stocks in oceanic waters. Our model predicted that the horizontal flux of prey would be sufficient to sustain the rich communities living on seamounts.

  19. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  20. Stock enhancement to address multiple recreational fisheries objectives: an integrated model applied to red drum Sciaenops ocellatus in Florida.

    PubMed

    Camp, E V; Lorenzen, K; Ahrens, R N M; Allen, M S

    2014-12-01

    An integrated socioecological model was developed to evaluate the potential for stock enhancement with hatchery fishes to achieve socioeconomic and conservation objectives in recreational fisheries. As a case study, this model was applied to the red drum Sciaenops ocellatus recreational fishery in the Tampa Bay estuary, Florida, U.S.A. The results suggest that stocking of juvenile fish larger than the size at which the strongest density dependence in mortality occurs can help increase angler satisfaction and total fishing effort (socioeconomic objectives) but are likely to result in decreases to the abundance of wild fishes (a conservation objective). Stocking of small juveniles that are susceptible to density-dependent mortality after release does not achieve socioeconomic objectives (or only at excessive cost) but still leads to a reduction of wild fish abundance. The intensity and type of socioeconomic gains depended on assumptions of dynamic angler-effort responses and importance of catch-related satisfaction, with greatest gains possible if aggregate effort is responsive to increases in abundance and satisfaction that are greatly related to catch rates. These results emphasize the view of stock enhancement, not as a panacea but rather as a management tool with inherent costs that is best applied to recreational fisheries under certain conditions. PMID:25469950

  1. Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

    2006-10-01

    Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

  2. Modelling growth variability in longline mussel farms as a function of stocking density and farm design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosland, Rune; Bacher, Cédric; Strand, Øivind; Aure, Jan; Strohmeier, Tore

    2011-11-01

    Mussels ( Mytilus edulis) are commonly cultivated on artificial structures like rafts, poles or longlines to facilitate farming operations. Farm structures and dense mussel populations may result in water flow reduction and seston depletion and thus reduced individual mussel growth and spatial growth variability inside a farm. One of the challenges in mussel farming is thus to scale and configure farms in order to optimise total mussel production and individual mussel quality under different environmental regimes. Here we present a spatially resolved model for simulation of flow reduction, seston depletion and individual mussel growth inside a longline farm based on information about farm configuration (spacing between longlines, farm length and stocking density) and background environmental conditions (current speed, seston concentration and temperature). The model simulations are forced by environmental data from two fjords in south-western Norway and the farm configurations are defined within operational ranges. The simulations demonstrate spatial growth patterns at longlines under environmental settings and farm configurations where flow reduction and seston depletion have significant impacts on individual mussel growth. Longline spacing has a strong impact on the spatial distribution of individual growth, and the spacing is characterised by a threshold value. Below the threshold growth reduction and spatial growth variability increase rapidly as a consequence of reduced water flow and seston supply rate, but increased filtration due to higher mussel densities also contributes to the growth reduction. The spacing threshold is moderated by other farm configuration factors and environmental conditions. Comparisons with seston depletion reported from other farm sites show that the model simulations are within observed ranges. A demonstration is provided on how the model can guide farm configuration with the aim of optimising total farm biomass and individual

  3. Semiautomatic generation of semantic building models from image series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, Stefan; Decker, Peter; Paulus, Dietrich

    2012-03-01

    We present an approach to generate a 3D model of a building including semantic annotations from image series. In the recent years semantic based modeling, reconstruction of buildings and building recognition became more and more important. Semantic building models have more information than just the geometry, thus making them more suitable for recognition or simulation tasks. The time consuming generation of such models and annotations makes an automatism desirable. Therefore, we present a semiautomatic approach towards semantic model generation. This approach has been implemented as a plugin for the photostitching tool Hugin*. Our approach reduces the interaction with the system to a minimum. The resulting model contains semantic, geometric and appearance information and is represented in City Geography Markup Language (CityGML).

  4. A Multidisciplinary Model of Evaluation Capacity Building

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preskill, Hallie; Boyle, Shanelle

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation capacity building (ECB) has become a hot topic of conversation, activity, and study within the evaluation field. Seeking to enhance stakeholders' understanding of evaluation concepts and practices, and in an effort to create evaluation cultures, organizations have been implementing a variety of strategies to help their members learn…

  5. Partnerships for Knowledge Building: An Emerging Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laferriere, Therese; Montane, Mireia; Gros, Begona; Alvarez, Isabel; Bernaus, Merce; Breuleux, Alain; Allaire, Stephane; Hamel, Christine; Lamon, Mary

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge Building is approached in this study from an organizational perspective, with a focus on the nature of school-university-government partnerships to support research-based educational innovation. The paper starts with an overview of what is known about effective partnerships and elaborates a conceptual framework for Knowledge Building…

  6. Building Component Library: An Online Repository to Facilitate Building Energy Model Creation; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Fleming, K.; Long, N.; Swindler, A.

    2012-05-01

    This paper describes the Building Component Library (BCL), the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) online repository of building components that can be directly used to create energy models. This comprehensive, searchable library consists of components and measures as well as the metadata which describes them. The library is also designed to allow contributors to easily add new components, providing a continuously growing, standardized list of components for users to draw upon.

  7. Building energy modeling for green architecture and intelligent dashboard applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeBlois, Justin

    Buildings are responsible for 40% of the carbon emissions in the United States. Energy efficiency in this sector is key to reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions. This work studied the passive technique called the roof solar chimney for reducing the cooling load in homes architecturally. Three models of the chimney were created: a zonal building energy model, computational fluid dynamics model, and numerical analytic model. The study estimated the error introduced to the building energy model (BEM) through key assumptions, and then used a sensitivity analysis to examine the impact on the model outputs. The conclusion was that the error in the building energy model is small enough to use it for building simulation reliably. Further studies simulated the roof solar chimney in a whole building, integrated into one side of the roof. Comparisons were made between high and low efficiency constructions, and three ventilation strategies. The results showed that in four US climates, the roof solar chimney results in significant cooling load energy savings of up to 90%. After developing this new method for the small scale representation of a passive architecture technique in BEM, the study expanded the scope to address a fundamental issue in modeling - the implementation of the uncertainty from and improvement of occupant behavior. This is believed to be one of the weakest links in both accurate modeling and proper, energy efficient building operation. A calibrated model of the Mascaro Center for Sustainable Innovation's LEED Gold, 3,400 m2 building was created. Then algorithms were developed for integration to the building's dashboard application that show the occupant the energy savings for a variety of behaviors in real time. An approach using neural networks to act on real-time building automation system data was found to be the most accurate and efficient way to predict the current energy savings for each scenario. A stochastic study examined the impact of the

  8. Jeddah Historical Building Information Modelling "JHBIM" - Object Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baik, A.; Alitany, A.; Boehm, J.; Robson, S.

    2014-05-01

    The theory of using Building Information Modelling "BIM" has been used in several Heritage places in the worldwide, in the case of conserving, documenting, managing, and creating full engineering drawings and information. However, one of the most serious issues that facing many experts in order to use the Historical Building Information Modelling "HBIM", is creating the complicated architectural elements of these Historical buildings. In fact, many of these outstanding architectural elements have been designed and created in the site to fit the exact location. Similarly, this issue has been faced the experts in Old Jeddah in order to use the BIM method for Old Jeddah historical Building. Moreover, The Saudi Arabian City has a long history as it contains large number of historic houses and buildings that were built since the 16th century. Furthermore, the BIM model of the historical building in Old Jeddah always take a lot of time, due to the unique of Hijazi architectural elements and no such elements library, which have been took a lot of time to be modelled. This paper will focus on building the Hijazi architectural elements library based on laser scanner and image survey data. This solution will reduce the time to complete the HBIM model and offering in depth and rich digital architectural elements library to be used in any heritage projects in Al-Balad district, Jeddah City.

  9. Artificial intelligence support for scientific model-building

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Richard M.

    1992-01-01

    Scientific model-building can be a time-intensive and painstaking process, often involving the development of large and complex computer programs. Despite the effort involved, scientific models cannot easily be distributed and shared with other scientists. In general, implemented scientific models are complex, idiosyncratic, and difficult for anyone but the original scientific development team to understand. We believe that artificial intelligence techniques can facilitate both the model-building and model-sharing process. In this paper, we overview our effort to build a scientific modeling software tool that aids the scientist in developing and using models. This tool includes an interactive intelligent graphical interface, a high-level domain specific modeling language, a library of physics equations and experimental datasets, and a suite of data display facilities.

  10. Mathematical Reliability Model of Building Components by Rayleigh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowogońska, Beata

    2015-03-01

    The patterns of process situations play an important role in the monitoring of diagnostic processes. The adaptation of mathematical models describing the degradation processes in mechanical and electronic devices creates opportunities to develop diagnostic standards for buildings erected in traditional technology. This article presents a proposal for the prediction of building operational reliability, which is a prognostic process model within the full period of its use.

  11. Development and validation of a building design waste reduction model.

    PubMed

    Llatas, C; Osmani, M

    2016-10-01

    Reduction in construction waste is a pressing need in many countries. The design of building elements is considered a pivotal process to achieve waste reduction at source, which enables an informed prediction of their wastage reduction levels. However the lack of quantitative methods linking design strategies to waste reduction hinders designing out waste practice in building projects. Therefore, this paper addresses this knowledge gap through the design and validation of a Building Design Waste Reduction Strategies (Waste ReSt) model that aims to investigate the relationships between design variables and their impact on onsite waste reduction. The Waste ReSt model was validated in a real-world case study involving 20 residential buildings in Spain. The validation process comprises three stages. Firstly, design waste causes were analyzed. Secondly, design strategies were applied leading to several alternative low waste building elements. Finally, their potential source reduction levels were quantified and discussed within the context of the literature. The Waste ReSt model could serve as an instrumental tool to simulate designing out strategies in building projects. The knowledge provided by the model could help project stakeholders to better understand the correlation between the design process and waste sources and subsequently implement design practices for low-waste buildings. PMID:27292581

  12. Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated

  13. Integration of Building Knowledge Into Binary Space Partitioning for the Reconstruction of Regularized Building Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wichmann, A.; Jung, J.; Sohn, G.; Kada, M.; Ehlers, M.

    2015-09-01

    Recent approaches for the automatic reconstruction of 3D building models from airborne point cloud data integrate prior knowledge of roof shapes with the intention to improve the regularization of the resulting models without lessening the flexibility to generate all real-world occurring roof shapes. In this paper, we present a method to integrate building knowledge into the data-driven approach that uses binary space partitioning (BSP) for modeling the 3D building geometry. A retrospective regularization of polygons that emerge from the BSP tree is not without difficulty because it has to deal with the 2D BSP subdivision itself and the plane definitions of the resulting partition regions to ensure topological correctness. This is aggravated by the use of hyperplanes during the binary subdivision that often splits planar roof regions into several parts that are stored in different subtrees of the BSP tree. We therefore introduce the use of hyperpolylines in the generation of the BSP tree to avoid unnecessary spatial subdivisions, so that the spatial integrity of planar roof regions is better maintained. The hyperpolylines are shown to result from basic building roof knowledge that is extracted based on roof topology graphs. An adjustment of the underlying point segments ensures that the positions of the extracted hyperpolylines result in regularized 2D partitions as well as topologically correct 3D building models. The validity and limitations of the approach are demonstrated on real-world examples.

  14. Knowledge-based model building of proteins: concepts and examples.

    PubMed Central

    Bajorath, J.; Stenkamp, R.; Aruffo, A.

    1993-01-01

    We describe how to build protein models from structural templates. Methods to identify structural similarities between proteins in cases of significant, moderate to low, or virtually absent sequence similarity are discussed. The detection and evaluation of structural relationships is emphasized as a central aspect of protein modeling, distinct from the more technical aspects of model building. Computational techniques to generate and complement comparative protein models are also reviewed. Two examples, P-selectin and gp39, are presented to illustrate the derivation of protein model structures and their use in experimental studies. PMID:7505680

  15. Development of hazard-compatible building fragility and vulnerability models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karaca, E.; Luco, N.

    2008-01-01

    We present a methodology for transforming the structural and non-structural fragility functions in HAZUS into a format that is compatible with conventional seismic hazard analysis information. The methodology makes use of the building capacity (or pushover) curves and related building parameters provided in HAZUS. Instead of the capacity spectrum method applied in HAZUS, building response is estimated by inelastic response history analysis of corresponding single-degree-of-freedom systems under a large number of earthquake records. Statistics of the building response are used with the damage state definitions from HAZUS to derive fragility models conditioned on spectral acceleration values. Using the developed fragility models for structural and nonstructural building components, with corresponding damage state loss ratios from HAZUS, we also derive building vulnerability models relating spectral acceleration to repair costs. Whereas in HAZUS the structural and nonstructural damage states are treated as if they are independent, our vulnerability models are derived assuming "complete" nonstructural damage whenever the structural damage state is complete. We show the effects of considering this dependence on the final vulnerability models. The use of spectral acceleration (at selected vibration periods) as the ground motion intensity parameter, coupled with the careful treatment of uncertainty, makes the new fragility and vulnerability models compatible with conventional seismic hazard curves and hence useful for extensions to probabilistic damage and loss assessment.

  16. Testing steady states carbon stocks of Yasso07 and ROMUL models against soil inventory data in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehtonen, Aleksi; Linkosalo, Tapio; Heikkinen, Juha; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Sievänen, Risto; Mäkipää, Raisa; Tamminen, Pekka; Salemaa, Maija; Komarov, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Soil carbon pool is a significant storage of carbon. Unfortunately, the significance of different drivers of this pool is still unknown. In order to predict future feedbacks of soils to climate change at global level, Earth system model (ESMs) are needed. These ESMs have been tested against soil carbon inventories in order to judge whether models can be used for future prediction. Unfortunately results have been poor, and e.g. Guenet et al. 2013 presents a test where soil carbon stocks by ORCHIDEE models are plotted at plot level against measurements without any correlation. Similarly, Todd-Brown et al. (2013) concludes that most ESMs are not able reproduce measured soil carbon stocks at grid level. Here we estimated litter input from trees and understorey vegetation to soil, based national forest inventory 9 data. Both, biomass estimates for trees and for understorey vegetation were smoothed with ordinary kriging methods and thereafter litter input was modeled by dominant tree species. Also regional litter input from natural mortality and harvesting residues were added to the input. Thereafter we applied Yasso07 (Tuomi et al. 2011) and ROMUL (Chertov et al. 2001) soil models to estimate steady-state carbon stocks for mineral soils of Finland on a 10*10 km2 grid. We run Yasso07 model with annual time step and using parameters based on Scandinavian data (Rantakari et al. 2012) and also with parameters based on global data set (Tuomi et al. 2011). ROMUL model was applied with and without soil water holding capacity information. Results were compared against Biosoil measurements of soil carbon stocks (n=521). We found out that the best match between model estimates and measurements by latitudinal bands (n=43) were by ROMUL model with soil water holding capacity, with RMSE of 9.9 Mg C. Second best match was with Yasso07 with Scandinavian parameters, with RMSE of 15.3 Mg C. Results of this study highlight two things, it is essential to run dynamic soil models with time

  17. Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smallman, Luke; Williams, Mathew

    2016-04-01

    Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting and clear-felling information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha‑1yr‑1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha‑1 yr‑1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha‑1 yr‑1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for LCA retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with

  18. An Occupant Behavior Model for Building Energy Efficiency and Safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, L. L.; Chen, T.; Jia, Q. S.; Yuan, R. X.; Wang, H. T.; Ding, R.

    2010-05-01

    An occupant behavior model is suggested to improve building energy efficiency and safety. This paper provides a generic outline of the model, which includes occupancy behavior abstraction, model framework and primary structure, input and output, computer simulation results as well as summary and outlook. Using information technology, now it's possible to collect large amount of information of occupancy. Yet this can only provide partial and historical information, so it's important to develop a model to have full view of the researched building as well as prediction. We used the infrared monitoring system which is set at the front door of the Low Energy Demo Building (LEDB) at Tsinghua University in China, to provide the time variation of the total number of occupants in the LEDB building. This information is used as input data for the model. While the RFID system is set on the 1st floor, which provides the time variation of the occupants' localization in each region. The collected data are used to validate the model. The simulation results show that this presented model provides a feasible framework to simulate occupants' behavior and predict the time variation of the number of occupants in the building. Further development and application of the model is also discussed.

  19. Temperature effects on stocks and stability of a phytoplankton-zooplankton model and the dependence on light and nutrients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norberg, J.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1997-01-01

    A model of a closed phytoplankton—zooplankton ecosystem was analyzed for effects of temperature on stocks and stability and the dependence of these effects on light and total nutrient concentration of the system. An analysis of the steady state equations showed that the effect of temperature on zooplankton and POM biomass was levelled when primary production is nutrient limited. Temperature increase had a generally negative effect on all biomasses at high nutrient levels due to increased maintenance costs. Nutrient limitation of net primary production is the main factor governing the effect of stocks and flows as well as the stability of the system. All components of the system, except for phytoplankton biomass, are proportional to net production and thus to the net effect of light on photosynthesis. However, temperature determines the slope of that relationship. The resilience of the system was measured by calculating the eigenvalues of the steady state. Under oligotrophic conditions, the system can be stable, but an increase in temperature can cause instability or a decrease in resilience. This conclusion is discussed in the face of recent models that take spatial heterogeneity into account and display far more stable behavior, in better agreement to empirical data. Using simulations, we found that the amplitude of fluctuations of the herbivore stock increases with temperature while the mean biomass and minimum values decrease in comparison with steady state predictions

  20. Building Test Cases through Model Driven Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, Helaine; Lopes, Denivaldo; Abdelouahab, Zair; Hammoudi, Slimane; Claro, Daniela Barreiro

    Recently, Model Driven Engineering (MDE) has been proposed to face the complexity in the development, maintenance and evolution of large and distributed software systems. Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is an example of MDE. In this context, model transformations enable a large reuse of software systems through the transformation of a Platform Independent Model into a Platform Specific Model. Although source code can be generated from models, defects can be injected during the modeling or transformation process. In order to delivery software systems without defects that cause errors and fails, the source code must be submitted to test. In this paper, we present an approach that takes care of test in the whole software life cycle, i.e. it starts in the modeling level and finishes in the test of source code of software systems. We provide an example to illustrate our approach.

  1. Building Simple Hidden Markov Models. Classroom Notes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K.

    2004-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used in bioinformatics, speech recognition and many other areas. This note presents HMMs via the framework of classical Markov chain models. A simple example is given to illustrate the model. An estimation method for the transition probabilities of the hidden states is also discussed.

  2. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  3. Fractional Market Model and its Verification on the Warsaw STOCK Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozłowska, Marzena; Kasprzak, Andrzej; Kutner, Ryszard

    We analyzed the rising and relaxation of the cusp-like local peaks superposed with oscillations which were well defined by the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG in a daily time horizon. We found that the falling paths of all index peaks were described by a generalized exponential function or the Mittag-Leffler (ML) one superposed with various types of oscillations. However, the rising paths (except the first one of WIG which rises exponentially and the most important last one which rises again according to the ML function) can be better described by bullish anti-bubbles or inverted bubbles.2-4 The ML function superposed with oscillations is a solution of the nonhomogeneous fractional relaxation equation which defines here our Fractional Market Model (FMM) of index dynamics which can be also called the Rheological Model of Market. This solution is a generalized analog of an exactly solvable fractional version of the Standard or Zener Solid Model of viscoelastic materials commonly used in modern rheology.5 For example, we found that the falling paths of the index can be considered to be a system in the intermediate state lying between two complex ones, defined by short and long-time limits of the Mittag-Leffler function; these limits are given by the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts (KWW) law for the initial times, and the power-law or the Nutting law for asymptotic time. Some rising paths (i.e., the bullish anti-bubbles) are a kind of log-periodic oscillations of the market in the bullish state initiated by a crash. The peaks of the index can be viewed as precritical or precrash ones since: (i) the financial market changes its state too early from the bullish to bearish one before it reaches a scaling region (defined by the diverging power-law of return per unit time), and (ii) they are affected by a finite size effect. These features could be a reminiscence of a significant risk aversion of the investors and their finite number, respectively. However, this means that the

  4. Optimizing Stocking Rate for Maximum Return to Wheat-cattle Enterprise Using Model Simulation and Economics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Managing dual-purpose wheat is complex because of the tradeoff relationship between cattle (Bos taurus) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production. Stocking rate (SR) and planting date are the key decision variables of the dual systems. The objective was to develop decision support information th...

  5. Duct thermal performance models for large commercial buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Wray, Craig P.

    2003-10-01

    Despite the potential for significant energy savings by reducing duct leakage or other thermal losses from duct systems in large commercial buildings, California Title 24 has no provisions to credit energy-efficient duct systems in these buildings. A substantial reason is the lack of readily available simulation tools to demonstrate the energy-saving benefits associated with efficient duct systems in large commercial buildings. The overall goal of the Efficient Distribution Systems (EDS) project within the PIER High Performance Commercial Building Systems Program is to bridge the gaps in current duct thermal performance modeling capabilities, and to expand our understanding of duct thermal performance in California large commercial buildings. As steps toward this goal, our strategy in the EDS project involves two parts: (1) developing a whole-building energy simulation approach for analyzing duct thermal performance in large commercial buildings, and (2) using the tool to identify the energy impacts of duct leakage in California large commercial buildings, in support of future recommendations to address duct performance in the Title 24 Energy Efficiency Standards for Nonresidential Buildings. The specific technical objectives for the EDS project were to: (1) Identify a near-term whole-building energy simulation approach that can be used in the impacts analysis task of this project (see Objective 3), with little or no modification. A secondary objective is to recommend how to proceed with long-term development of an improved compliance tool for Title 24 that addresses duct thermal performance. (2) Develop an Alternative Calculation Method (ACM) change proposal to include a new metric for thermal distribution system efficiency in the reporting requirements for the 2005 Title 24 Standards. The metric will facilitate future comparisons of different system types using a common ''yardstick''. (3) Using the selected near-term simulation approach, assess the impacts of

  6. Fitting of Parametric Building Models to Oblique Aerial Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panday, U. S.; Gerke, M.

    2011-09-01

    In literature and in photogrammetric workstations many approaches and systems to automatically reconstruct buildings from remote sensing data are described and available. Those building models are being used for instance in city modeling or in cadastre context. If a roof overhang is present, the building walls cannot be estimated correctly from nadir-view aerial images or airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. This leads to inconsistent building outlines, which has a negative influence on visual impression, but more seriously also represents a wrong legal boundary in the cadaster. Oblique aerial images as opposed to nadir-view images reveal greater detail, enabling to see different views of an object taken from different directions. Building walls are visible from oblique images directly and those images are used for automated roof overhang estimation in this research. A fitting algorithm is employed to find roof parameters of simple buildings. It uses a least squares algorithm to fit projected wire frames to their corresponding edge lines extracted from the images. Self-occlusion is detected based on intersection result of viewing ray and the planes formed by the building whereas occlusion from other objects is detected using an ALS point cloud. Overhang and ground height are obtained by sweeping vertical and horizontal planes respectively. Experimental results are verified with high resolution ortho-images, field survey, and ALS data. Planimetric accuracy of 1cm mean and 5cm standard deviation was obtained, while buildings' orientation were accurate to mean of 0.23° and standard deviation of 0.96° with ortho-image. Overhang parameters were aligned to approximately 10cm with field survey. The ground and roof heights were accurate to mean of - 9cm and 8cm with standard deviations of 16cm and 8cm with ALS respectively. The developed approach reconstructs 3D building models well in cases of sufficient texture. More images should be acquired for completeness of

  7. Desk-top model buildings for dynamic earthquake response demonstrations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brady, A. Gerald

    1992-01-01

    Models of buildings that illustrate dynamic resonance behavior when excited by hand are designed and built. Two types of buildings are considered, one with columns stronger than floors, the other with columns weaker than floors. Combinations and variations of these two types are possible. Floor masses and column stiffnesses are chosen in order that the frequency of the second mode is approximately five cycles per second, so that first and second modes can be excited manually. The models are expected to be resonated by hand by schoolchildren or persons unfamiliar with the dynamic resonant response of tall buildings, to gain an understanding of structural behavior during earthquakes. Among other things, this experience will develop a level of confidence in the builder and experimenter should they be in a high-rise building during an earthquake, sensing both these resonances and other violent shaking.

  8. NREL's Building Component Library for Use with Energy Models

    DOE Data Explorer

    The Building Component Library (BCL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s comprehensive online searchable library of energy modeling building blocks and descriptive metadata. Novice users and seasoned practitioners can use the freely available and uniquely identifiable components to create energy models and cite the sources of input data, which will increase the credibility and reproducibility of their simulations. The BCL contains components which are the building blocks of an energy model. They can represent physical characteristics of the building such as roofs, walls, and windows, or can refer to related operational information such as occupancy and equipment schedules and weather information. Each component is identified through a set of attributes that are specific to its type, as well as other metadata such as provenance information and associated files. The BCL also contains energy conservation measures (ECM), referred to as measures, which describe a change to a building and its associated model. For the BCL, this description attempts to define a measure for reproducible application, either to compare it to a baseline model, to estimate potential energy savings, or to examine the effects of a particular implementation. The BCL currently contains more than 30,000 components and measures. A faceted search mechanism has been implemented on the BCL that allows users to filter through the search results using various facets. Facet categories include component and measure types, data source, and energy modeling software type. All attributes of a component or measure can also be used to filter the results.

  9. A toolkit for building earth system models

    SciTech Connect

    Foster, I.

    1993-03-01

    An earth system model is a computer code designed to simulate the interrelated processes that determine the earth's weather and climate, such as atmospheric circulation, atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, oceanic circulation, and biosphere. I propose a toolkit that would support a modular, or object-oriented, approach to the implementation of such models.

  10. A toolkit for building earth system models

    SciTech Connect

    Foster, I.

    1993-03-01

    An earth system model is a computer code designed to simulate the interrelated processes that determine the earth`s weather and climate, such as atmospheric circulation, atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, oceanic circulation, and biosphere. I propose a toolkit that would support a modular, or object-oriented, approach to the implementation of such models.

  11. Career Pathways Skill-Building Instructional Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Community Coll. of Rhode Island, Warwick.

    As part of an effort to develop a skill-based education program for students that relates academic skills with workplace skills, the Community College of Rhode Island developed a working instructional model consisting of 6 areas, or strands, and 31 skills. The model is directed at students in grades 9 through 12 and recognizes the importance of…

  12. Building Water Models: A Different Approach

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Simplified classical water models are currently an indispensable component in practical atomistic simulations. Yet, despite several decades of intense research, these models are still far from perfect. Presented here is an alternative approach to constructing widely used point charge water models. In contrast to the conventional approach, we do not impose any geometry constraints on the model other than the symmetry. Instead, we optimize the distribution of point charges to best describe the “electrostatics” of the water molecule. The resulting “optimal” 3-charge, 4-point rigid water model (OPC) reproduces a comprehensive set of bulk properties significantly more accurately than commonly used rigid models: average error relative to experiment is 0.76%. Close agreement with experiment holds over a wide range of temperatures. The improvements in the proposed model extend beyond bulk properties: compared to common rigid models, predicted hydration free energies of small molecules using OPC are uniformly closer to experiment, with root-mean-square error <1 kcal/mol. PMID:25400877

  13. Team Learning: Building Shared Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van den Bossche, Piet; Gijselaers, Wim; Segers, Mien; Woltjer, Geert; Kirschner, Paul

    2011-01-01

    To gain insight in the social processes that underlie knowledge sharing in teams, this article questions which team learning behaviors lead to the construction of a shared mental model. Additionally, it explores how the development of shared mental models mediates the relation between team learning behaviors and team effectiveness. Analyses were…

  14. Building a Database for a Quantitative Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahn, C. Joseph; Kleinhammer, Roger

    2014-01-01

    A database can greatly benefit a quantitative analysis. The defining characteristic of a quantitative risk, or reliability, model is the use of failure estimate data. Models can easily contain a thousand Basic Events, relying on hundreds of individual data sources. Obviously, entering so much data by hand will eventually lead to errors. Not so obviously entering data this way does not aid linking the Basic Events to the data sources. The best way to organize large amounts of data on a computer is with a database. But a model does not require a large, enterprise-level database with dedicated developers and administrators. A database built in Excel can be quite sufficient. A simple spreadsheet database can link every Basic Event to the individual data source selected for them. This database can also contain the manipulations appropriate for how the data is used in the model. These manipulations include stressing factors based on use and maintenance cycles, dormancy, unique failure modes, the modeling of multiple items as a single "Super component" Basic Event, and Bayesian Updating based on flight and testing experience. A simple, unique metadata field in both the model and database provides a link from any Basic Event in the model to its data source and all relevant calculations. The credibility for the entire model often rests on the credibility and traceability of the data.

  15. Modelling the Carbon Stocks Estimation of the Tropical Lowland Dipterocarp Forest Using LIDAR and Remotely Sensed Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaki, N. A. M.; Latif, Z. A.; Suratman, M. N.; Zainal, M. Z.

    2016-06-01

    Tropical forest embraces a large stock of carbon in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the enormous amount of above and below ground biomass. The carbon kept in the aboveground living biomass of trees is typically the largest pool and the most directly impacted by the anthropogenic factor such as deforestation and forest degradation. However, fewer studies had been proposed to model the carbon for tropical rain forest and the quantification still remain uncertainties. A multiple linear regression (MLR) is one of the methods to define the relationship between the field inventory measurements and the statistical extracted from the remotely sensed data which is LiDAR and WorldView-3 imagery (WV-3). This paper highlight the model development from fusion of multispectral WV-3 with the LIDAR metrics to model the carbon estimation of the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of the study area. The result shown the over segmentation and under segmentation value for this output is 0.19 and 0.11 respectively, thus D-value for the classification is 0.19 which is 81%. Overall, this study produce a significant correlation coefficient (r) between Crown projection area (CPA) and Carbon stocks (CS); height from LiDAR (H_LDR) and Carbon stocks (CS); and Crown projection area (CPA) and height from LiDAR (H_LDR) were shown 0.671, 0.709 and 0.549 respectively. The CPA of the segmentation found to be representative spatially with higher correlation of relationship between diameter at the breast height (DBH) and carbon stocks which is Pearson Correlation p = 0.000 (p < 0.01) with correlation coefficient (r) is 0.909 which shown that there a good relationship between carbon and DBH predictors to improve the inventory estimates of carbon using multiple linear regression method. The study concluded that the integration of WV-3 imagery with the CHM raster based LiDAR were useful in order to quantify the AGB and carbon stocks for a larger sample area of the Lowland Dipterocarp forest.

  16. Dynamic stock and end-of-life flow identification based on the internal cycle model and mean-age monitoring.

    PubMed

    Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

    2014-07-01

    Planning of end-of-life (EoL) product take-back systems and sizing of dismantling and recycling centers, entails the EoL flow (EoLF) that originates from the product dynamic stock (DS). Several uncertain factors (economic, technological, health, social and environmental) render both the EoLF and the remaining stock uncertain. Early losses of products during use due to biodegradation, wear and uncertain factors such as withdrawals and exports of used, may diminish the stock and the EoLF. Life expectancy prediction methods are static, ignoring early losses and inapt under dynamic conditions. Existing dynamic methods, either consider a single uncertain factor (e.g. GDP) approximately or heuristically modelled and ignore other factors that may become dominant, or assume cognizance of DS and of the center axis of the EoL exit distribution that are unknown for most products. As a result, reliable dynamic EoLF prediction for both durables and consumer end-products is still challenging. The present work develops an identification method for estimating the early loss and DS and predicting the dynamic EoLF, based on available input data (production+net imports) and on sampled measurements of the stock mean-age and the EoLF mean-age. The mean ages are scaled quantities, slowly varying, even under dynamic conditions and can be reliably determined, even from small size and/or frequent samples. The method identifies the early loss sequence, as well as the center axis and spread of the EoL exit distribution, which are subsequently used to determine the DS and EoLF profiles, enabling consistent and reliable predictions. PMID:24721623

  17. Using Dynamic Modeling to Scope Environmental Problems and Build Consensus

    PubMed

    Costanza; Ruth

    1998-03-01

    / This paper assesses the changing role of dynamic modeling for understanding and managing complex ecological economic systems. It discusses new modeling tools for problem scoping and consensus building among a broad range of stakeholders and describes four case studies in which dynamic modeling has been used to collect and organize data, synthesize knowledge, and build consensus about the management of complex systems. The case studies range from industrial systems (mining, smelting, and refining of iron and steel in the United States) to ecosystems (Louisiana coastal wetlands, and Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa) to linked ecological economic systems (Maryland's Patuxent River basin in the United States). They illustrate uses of dynamic modeling to include stakeholders in all stages of consensus building, ranging from initial problem scoping to model development. The resultant models are the first stage in a three-stage modeling process that includes research and management models as the later stages.KEY WORDS: Dynamic modeling; Scoping; Consensus building; Environmental management; Ecosystem management; Policy making; Graphical programming languages PMID:9465128

  18. Simulation of changes in arctic terrestrial carbon stocks under using ecosys mathematical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metivier, K.; Grant, R. F.; Humphreys, E. R.; Lafleur, P.; Zhang, H.

    2010-12-01

    better represented. The study showed the importance of using ecosys mathematical model, in conjunction with measured data to asses both short and long-term sustainability of these northern ecosystems. The research will also allow recommendations of sustainable (soil, water, air, plant and other habitat quality) best management practices (BMPs) for northern ecosystems in Canada and around the world, today and tomorrow. A healthy environment will in turn help people in northern communities e.g. food, water, economic security. This research will contribute to many other different areas e.g. quantification of carbon stocks in inventories, carbon trading, IPCC Tier III methodology for the Kyoto Protocol, policy decisions etc. We hope that the research can contribute to avoiding climate change since this may disrupt the sustainability of these ecosystems vital for northern communities, as well as affect other regions of the world more negatively such as the Tropics.

  19. Activity-dependent branching ratios in stocks, solar x-ray flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model.

    PubMed

    Martin, Elliot; Shreim, Amer; Paczuski, Maya

    2010-01-01

    We define an activity-dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series X(t). The branching ratio b(x) is defined as b(x)=E[xi(x)/x]. The random variable xi(x) is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to x, so xi(x)=[X(t+1) | X(t)=x]. If b(x)>1, the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to x, while if b(x)<1, it is subcritical. For stock prices we find b(x)=1 within statistical uncertainty, for all x, consistent with an "efficient market hypothesis." For stock volumes, solar x-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, b(x) is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power-law behavior. For solar x-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where b(x) approximately equal 1, which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for X(t) and for xi(x). For the BTW model the distribution of xi(x) is Gaussian, for x sufficiently larger than 1, and its variance grows linearly with x. Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where b(x) is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model-supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality. PMID:20365434

  20. Building an environment model using depth information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roth-Tabak, Y.; Jain, Ramesh

    1989-01-01

    Modeling the environment is one of the most crucial issues for the development and research of autonomous robot and tele-perception. Though the physical robot operates (navigates and performs various tasks) in the real world, any type of reasoning, such as situation assessment, planning or reasoning about action, is performed based on information in its internal world. Hence, the robot's intentional actions are inherently constrained by the models it has. These models may serve as interfaces between sensing modules and reasoning modules, or in the case of telerobots serve as interface between the human operator and the distant robot. A robot operating in a known restricted environment may have a priori knowledge of its whole possible work domain, which will be assimilated in its World Model. As the information in the World Model is relatively fixed, an Environment Model must be introduced to cope with the changes in the environment and to allow exploring entirely new domains. Introduced here is an algorithm that uses dense range data collected at various positions in the environment to refine and update or generate a 3-D volumetric model of an environment. The model, which is intended for autonomous robot navigation and tele-perception, consists of cubic voxels with the possible attributes: Void, Full, and Unknown. Experimental results from simulations of range data in synthetic environments are given. The quality of the results show great promise for dealing with noisy input data. The performance measures for the algorithm are defined, and quantitative results for noisy data and positional uncertainty are presented.

  1. The Use of Modelling for Theory Building in Qualitative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Briggs, Ann R. J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to exemplify and enhance the place of modelling as a qualitative process in educational research. Modelling is widely used in quantitative research as a tool for analysis, theory building and prediction. Statistical data lend themselves to graphical representation of values, interrelationships and operational…

  2. Combining building and behavior models for evacuation planning.

    PubMed

    Yanhui Wang; Liqiang Zhang; Jingtao Ma; Liu Liu; Dongqin You; Lixin Zhang

    2011-01-01

    To help users find optimal rescue and evacuation routes, this approach uses the extended hierarchical node relation model (EHI-NRM) to represent a building's internal structure. The approach also employs the improved cellular-automata model (ICA) to consider route-choice behavior, such as spatial reasoning and communication among evacuees. PMID:24808091

  3. Building integral projection models: a user's guide

    PubMed Central

    Rees, Mark; Childs, Dylan Z; Ellner, Stephen P; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    In order to understand how changes in individual performance (growth, survival or reproduction) influence population dynamics and evolution, ecologists are increasingly using parameterized mathematical models. For continuously structured populations, where some continuous measure of individual state influences growth, survival or reproduction, integral projection models (IPMs) are commonly used. We provide a detailed description of the steps involved in constructing an IPM, explaining how to: (i) translate your study system into an IPM; (ii) implement your IPM; and (iii) diagnose potential problems with your IPM. We emphasize how the study organism's life cycle, and the timing of censuses, together determine the structure of the IPM kernel and important aspects of the statistical analysis used to parameterize an IPM using data on marked individuals. An IPM based on population studies of Soay sheep is used to illustrate the complete process of constructing, implementing and evaluating an IPM fitted to sample data. We then look at very general approaches to parameterizing an IPM, using a wide range of statistical techniques (e.g. maximum likelihood methods, generalized additive models, nonparametric kernel density estimators). Methods for selecting models for parameterizing IPMs are briefly discussed. We conclude with key recommendations and a brief overview of applications that extend the basic model. The online Supporting Information provides commented R code for all our analyses. PMID:24219157

  4. A Pathway Idea in Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathai, A. M.; Haubold, H. J.

    2014-01-01

    The pathway idea is a way of going from one family of functions to another family of functions and yet another family of functions through a parameter in the mode l so that a switching mechanism is introduced into the model through a parameter. The advantage of the idea is that the model can cover the ideal or stable situation in a physical situation as well as cover the unstable neighborhoods or move from unstable neighborhoods to the stable situation. The basic idea is illustrated for the real scalar case here and its connections to topics in astrophysics and non-extens ive statistical mechanics, namely superstatistics and Tsallis statistics, Mittag-Leffler models, hypergeometric functions and generalized special functions such as the H-function etc are pointed out. The pathway idea is available for the real and complex rectangular matrix variate cases but only the real scalar case is illustrated here.

  5. Activity-dependent branching ratios in stocks, solar x-ray flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Elliot; Shreim, Amer; Paczuski, Maya

    2010-01-01

    We define an activity-dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series Xt . The branching ratio bx is defined as bx=E[ξx/x] . The random variable ξx is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to x , so ξx={Xt+1∣Xt=x} . If bx>1 , the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to x , while if bx<1 , it is subcritical. For stock prices we find bx=1 within statistical uncertainty, for all x , consistent with an “efficient market hypothesis.” For stock volumes, solar x-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, bx is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power-law behavior. For solar x-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where bx≃1 , which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for Xt and for ξx . For the BTW model the distribution of ξx is Gaussian, for x sufficiently larger than 1, and its variance grows linearly with x . Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where bx is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model—supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality.

  6. Data driven models applied in building load forecasting for residential and commercial buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, SM Mahbobur

    A significant portion of the operating costs of utilities comes from energy production. Machine learning methods are widely used for short-term load forecasts for commercial buildings and also the utility grid. These forecasts are used to minimize unit power production costs for the energy managers for better planning of power units and load management. In this work, three different state-of-art machine learning methods i.e. Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Regression and Gaussian Process Regression are applied in hour ahead and 24 --hour ahead building energy forecasting. The work uses four residential buildings and one commercial building located in Downtown, San Antonio as test-bed using energy consumption data from those buildings monitored in real-time. Uncertainty quantification analysis is conducted to understand the confidence in each forecast using Bayesian Network. Using a combination of weather variables and historical load, forecasting is done in a supervised way based on a moving window training algorithm. A range of comparisons between different forecasting models in terms of relative accuracy are then presented.

  7. Data Base Demystified: Building a Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kellogg, Edward B.

    1987-01-01

    Discusses databases and database management systems and explains how they can be used to organize and provide access to information. Highlights include relational models, database design considerations (particularly normalization), query languages used in programming, screen displays, data integrity and security, and effects of the organizational…

  8. Involving Stakeholders in Building Integrated Fisheries Models Using Bayesian Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts.

  9. Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods.

    PubMed

    Haapasaari, Päivi; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-06-01

    A participatory Bayesian approach was used to investigate how the views of stakeholders could be utilized to develop models to help understand the Central Baltic herring fishery. In task one, we applied the Bayesian belief network methodology to elicit the causal assumptions of six stakeholders on factors that influence natural mortality, growth, and egg survival of the herring stock in probabilistic terms. We also integrated the expressed views into a meta-model using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. In task two, we used influence diagrams to study qualitatively how the stakeholders frame the management problem of the herring fishery and elucidate what kind of causalities the different views involve. The paper combines these two tasks to assess the suitability of the methodological choices to participatory modeling in terms of both a modeling tool and participation mode. The paper also assesses the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology provides a flexible tool that can be adapted to different kinds of needs and challenges of participatory modeling. The ability of the approach to deal with small data sets makes it cost-effective in participatory contexts. However, the BMA methodology used in modeling the biological uncertainties is so complex that it needs further development before it can be introduced to wider use in participatory contexts. PMID:23604267

  10. Evolutionary Tuning of Building Models to Monthly Electrical Consumption

    SciTech Connect

    Garrett, Aaron; New, Joshua Ryan; Chandler, Theodore

    2013-01-01

    Building energy models of existing buildings are unreliable unless calibrated so they correlate well with actual energy usage. Calibrating models is costly because it is currently an art which requires significant manual effort by an experienced and skilled professional. An automated methodology could significantly decrease this cost and facilitate greater adoption of energy simulation capabilities into the marketplace. The Autotune project is a novel methodology which leverages supercomputing, large databases of simulation data, and machine learning to allow automatic calibration of simulations to match measured experimental data on commodity hardware. This paper shares initial results from the automated methodology applied to the calibration of building energy models (BEM) for EnergyPlus (E+) to reproduce measured monthly electrical data.

  11. Exploitation of Semantic Building Model in Indoor Navigation Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anjomshoaa, A.; Shayeganfar, F.; Tjoa, A. Min

    2009-04-01

    There are many types of indoor and outdoor navigation tools and methodologies available. A majority of these solutions are based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and instant video and image processing. These approaches are ideal for open world environments where very few information about the target location is available, but for large scale building environments such as hospitals, governmental offices, etc the end-user will need more detailed information about the surrounding context which is especially important in case of people with special needs. This paper presents a smart indoor navigation solution that is based on Semantic Web technologies and Building Information Model (BIM). The proposed solution is also aligned with Google Android's concepts to enlighten the realization of results. Keywords: IAI IFCXML, Building Information Model, Indoor Navigation, Semantic Web, Google Android, People with Special Needs 1 Introduction Built environment is a central factor in our daily life and a big portion of human life is spent inside buildings. Traditionally the buildings are documented using building maps and plans by utilization of IT tools such as computer-aided design (CAD) applications. Documenting the maps in an electronic way is already pervasive but CAD drawings do not suffice the requirements regarding effective building models that can be shared with other building-related applications such as indoor navigation systems. The navigation in built environment is not a new issue, however with the advances in emerging technologies like GPS, mobile and networked environments, and Semantic Web new solutions have been suggested to enrich the traditional building maps and convert them to smart information resources that can be reused in other applications and improve the interpretability with building inhabitants and building visitors. Other important issues that should be addressed in building navigation scenarios are location tagging and end-user communication

  12. Impact of the U.S. National Building Information Model Standard (NBIMS) on Building Energy Performance Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Bazjanac, Vladimir

    2007-08-01

    The U.S. National Institute for Building Sciences (NIBS) started the development of the National Building Information Model Standard (NBIMS). Its goal is to define standard sets of data required to describe any given building in necessary detail so that any given AECO industry discipline application can find needed data at any point in the building lifecycle. This will include all data that are used in or are pertinent to building energy performance simulation and analysis. This paper describes the background that lead to the development of NBIMS, its goals and development methodology, its Part 1 (Version 1.0), and its probable impact on building energy performance simulation and analysis.

  13. Fast response modeling of a two building urban street canyon

    SciTech Connect

    Pardyjak, E. R.; Brown, M. J.

    2002-01-01

    QWIC-URB is a fast response model designed to generate high resolution, 3-dimensional wind fields around buildings. The wind fields are produced using a mass consistent diagnostic wind model based on the work of Roeckle (1990, 1998) and Kaplan & Dinar (1996). QWIC-URB has been used for producing wind fields around single buildings with various incident wind angles (Pardyjak and Brown 2001). Recently, the model has been expanded to consider two-building, 3D canyon flow. That is, two rectangular parallelepipeds of height H, crosswind width W, and length L separated by a distance S. The purpose of this work is to continue to evaluate the Roeckle (1990) model and develop improvements. In this paper, the model is compared to the twin high-rise building data set of Ohba et al. (1993, hereafter OSL93). Although the model qualitatively predicts the flow field fairly well for simple canyon flow, it over predicts the strength of vortex circulation and fails to reproduce the upstream rotor.

  14. Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

    2013-01-01

    We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

  15. Building entity models through observation and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Richard; Kania, Robert; Fields, MaryAnne; Barnes, Laura

    2011-05-01

    To support the missions and tasks of mixed robotic/human teams, future robotic systems will need to adapt to the dynamic behavior of both teammates and opponents. One of the basic elements of this adaptation is the ability to exploit both long and short-term temporal data. This adaptation allows robotic systems to predict/anticipate, as well as influence, future behavior for both opponents and teammates and will afford the system the ability to adjust its own behavior in order to optimize its ability to achieve the mission goals. This work is a preliminary step in the effort to develop online entity behavior models through a combination of learning techniques and observations. As knowledge is extracted from the system through sensor and temporal feedback, agents within the multi-agent system attempt to develop and exploit a basic movement model of an opponent. For the purpose of this work, extraction and exploitation is performed through the use of a discretized two-dimensional game. The game consists of a predetermined number of sentries attempting to keep an unknown intruder agent from penetrating their territory. The sentries utilize temporal data coupled with past opponent observations to hypothesize the probable locations of the opponent and thus optimize their guarding locations.

  16. Model-building codes for membrane proteins.

    SciTech Connect

    Shirley, David Noyes; Hunt, Thomas W.; Brown, W. Michael; Schoeniger, Joseph S.; Slepoy, Alexander; Sale, Kenneth L.; Young, Malin M.; Faulon, Jean-Loup Michel; Gray, Genetha Anne

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a novel approach to modeling the transmembrane spanning helical bundles of integral membrane proteins using only a sparse set of distance constraints, such as those derived from MS3-D, dipolar-EPR and FRET experiments. Algorithms have been written for searching the conformational space of membrane protein folds matching the set of distance constraints, which provides initial structures for local conformational searches. Local conformation search is achieved by optimizing these candidates against a custom penalty function that incorporates both measures derived from statistical analysis of solved membrane protein structures and distance constraints obtained from experiments. This results in refined helical bundles to which the interhelical loops and amino acid side-chains are added. Using a set of only 27 distance constraints extracted from the literature, our methods successfully recover the structure of dark-adapted rhodopsin to within 3.2 {angstrom} of the crystal structure.

  17. Building a generalized distributed system model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mukkamala, R.

    1992-01-01

    The key elements in the second year (1991-92) of our project are: (1) implementation of the distributed system prototype; (2) successful passing of the candidacy examination and a PhD proposal acceptance by the funded student; (3) design of storage efficient schemes for replicated distributed systems; and (4) modeling of gracefully degrading reliable computing systems. In the third year of the project (1992-93), we propose to: (1) complete the testing of the prototype; (2) enhance the functionality of the modules by enabling the experimentation with more complex protocols; (3) use the prototype to verify the theoretically predicted performance of locking protocols, etc.; and (4) work on issues related to real-time distributed systems. This should result in efficient protocols for these systems.

  18. Evaluation study of building-resolved urban dispersion models

    SciTech Connect

    Flaherty, Julia E.; Allwine, K Jerry; Brown, Mike J.; Coirier, WIlliam J.; Ericson, Shawn C.; Hansen, Olav R.; Huber, Alan H.; Kim, Sura; Leach, Martin J.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Newsom, Rob K.; Patnaik, Gopal; Senocak, Inanc

    2007-09-10

    For effective emergency response and recovery planning, it is critically important that building-resolved urban dispersion models be evaluated using field data. Several full-physics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models and semi-empirical building-resolved (SEB) models are being advanced and applied to simulating flow and dispersion in urban areas. To obtain an estimate of the current state-of-readiness of these classes of models, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funded a study to compare five CFD models and one SEB model with tracer data from the extensive Midtown Manhattan field study (MID05) conducted during August 2005 as part of the DHS Urban Dispersion Program (UDP; Allwine and Flaherty 2007). Six days of tracer and meteorological experiments were conducted over an approximately 2-km-by-2-km area in Midtown Manhattan just south of Central Park in New York City. A subset of these data was used for model evaluations. The study was conducted such that an evaluation team, independent of the six modeling teams, provided all the input data (e.g., building data, meteorological data and tracer release rates) and run conditions for each of four experimental periods simulated. Tracer concentration data for two of the four experimental periods were provided to the modeling teams for their own evaluation of their respective models to ensure proper setup and operation. Tracer data were not provided for the second two experimental periods to provide for an independent evaluation of the models. The tracer concentrations resulting from the model simulations were provided to the evaluation team in a standard format for consistency in inter-comparing model results. An overview of the model evaluation approach will be given followed by a discussion on the qualitative comparison of the respective models with the field data. Future model developments efforts needed to address modeling gaps identified from this study will also be discussed.

  19. Combined Grammar for the Modeling of Building Interiors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, S.; Peter, M.; Fritsch, D.; Philipp, D.; Baier, P.; Dibak, C.

    2013-11-01

    As spatial grammars have proven successful and efficient to deliver LOD3 models, the next challenge is their extension to indoor applications, leading to LOD4 models. Therefore, a combined indoor grammar for the automatic generation of indoor models from erroneous and incomplete observation data is presented. In building interiors where inaccurate observation data is available, the grammar can be used to make the reconstruction process robust, and verify the reconstructed geometries. In unobserved building interiors, the grammar can generate hypotheses about possible indoor geometries matching the style of the rest of the building. The grammar combines concepts from L-systems and split grammars. It is designed in such way that it can be derived from observation data fully automatically. Thus, manual predefinitions of the grammar rules usually required to tune the grammar to a specific building style, become obsolete. The potential benefit of using our grammar as support for indoor modeling is evaluated based on an example where the grammar has been applied to automatically generate an indoor model from erroneous and incomplete traces gathered by foot-mounted MEMS/IMU positioning systems.

  20. Simplified Building Models Extraction from Ultra-Light Uav Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Küng, O.; Strecha, C.; Fua, P.; Gurdan, D.; Achtelik, M.; Doth, K.-M.; Stumpf, J.

    2011-09-01

    Generating detailed simplified building models such as the ones present on Google Earth is often a difficult and lengthy manual task, requiring advanced CAD software and a combination of ground imagery, LIDAR data and blueprints. Nowadays, UAVs such as the AscTec Falcon 8 have reached the maturity to offer an affordable, fast and easy way to capture large amounts of oblique images covering all parts of a building. In this paper we present a state-of-the-art photogrammetry and visual reconstruction pipeline provided by Pix4D applied to medium resolution imagery acquired by such UAVs. The key element of simplified building models extraction is the seamless integration of the outputs of such a pipeline for a final manual refinement step in order to minimize the amount of manual work.

  1. Modeling the Combined Effects of CO2, Climate and Land Use on the Carbon Stocks of Plants and Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2002-12-01

    A terrestrial carbon cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) is used to examine the response of plant and soil carbon stocks to historical changes in land cover, land use management, atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. This geographically-explicit implementation of ISAM simulates the carbon fluxes to and from different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere with 1-by-1 degree spatial resolution (longitude and latitude). Each 1-by-1 degree cell contains thirteen land coverage classifications, which represent both highly managed land uses and less managed biomes. Changes in areas between land cover classifications are driven by land uses that have resulted in, e.g., shifting-agriculture, afforestation, deforestation, and reforestation. Within each grid cell and land-coverage classification, the modeled carbon cycle includes feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, and respiration. Plant and soil carbon stocks for land-coverage classifications are also influenced by agriculture and forest management practices including, e.g., soil amendments and tillage. For the historical time period (1765 through 1990), CO2 sources and sinks are derived using the observed temperature change and CO2 concentrations along with surveys of past land cover change and shifts in management practices. After 1990, carbon fluxes are estimated based on the AOGCM based temperature distributions and ISAM based CO2 concentrations. The results are compared to other highly resolved models.

  2. Semi-Automatic Modelling of Building FAÇADES with Shape Grammars Using Historic Building Information Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dore, C.; Murphy, M.

    2013-02-01

    This paper outlines a new approach for generating digital heritage models from laser scan or photogrammetric data using Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM). HBIM is a plug-in for Building Information Modelling (BIM) software that uses parametric library objects and procedural modelling techniques to automate the modelling stage. The HBIM process involves a reverse engineering solution whereby parametric interactive objects representing architectural elements are mapped onto laser scan or photogrammetric survey data. A library of parametric architectural objects has been designed from historic manuscripts and architectural pattern books. These parametric objects were built using an embedded programming language within the ArchiCAD BIM software called Geometric Description Language (GDL). Procedural modelling techniques have been implemented with the same language to create a parametric building façade which automatically combines library objects based on architectural rules and proportions. Different configurations of the façade are controlled by user parameter adjustment. The automatically positioned elements of the façade can be subsequently refined using graphical editing while overlaying the model with orthographic imagery. Along with this semi-automatic method for generating façade models, manual plotting of library objects can also be used to generate a BIM model from survey data. After the 3D model has been completed conservation documents such as plans, sections, elevations and 3D views can be automatically generated for conservation projects.

  3. Constraining parameters in marine pelagic ecosystem models - is it actually feasible with typical observations of standing stocks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löptien, U.; Dietze, H.

    2015-07-01

    In a changing climate, marine pelagic biogeochemistry may modulate the atmospheric concentrations of climate-relevant species such as CO2 and N2O. To date, projections rely on earth system models, featuring simple pelagic biogeochemical model components, embedded into 3-D ocean circulation models. Most of these biogeochemical model components rely on the hyperbolic Michaelis-Menten (MM) formulation which specifies the limiting effect of light and nutrients on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton. The respective MM constants, along with other model parameters, of 3-D coupled biogeochemical ocean-circulation models are usually tuned; the parameters are changed until a "reasonable" similarity to observed standing stocks is achieved. Here, we explore with twin experiments (or synthetic "observations") the demands on observations that allow for a more objective estimation of model parameters. We start with parameter retrieval experiments based on "perfect" (synthetic) observations which we distort, step by step, by low-frequency noise to approach realistic conditions. Finally, we confirm our findings with real-world observations. In summary, we find that MM constants are especially hard to constrain because even modest noise (10 %) inherent to observations may hinder the parameter retrieval already. This is of concern since the MM parameters are key to the model's sensitivity to anticipated changes in the external conditions. Furthermore, we illustrate problems caused by high-order parameter dependencies when parameter estimation is based on sparse observations of standing stocks. Somewhat counter to intuition, we find that more observational data can sometimes degrade the ability to constrain certain parameters.

  4. Building a Model PE Curriculum: Education Reform in Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, John

    2012-01-01

    The blueprint to build a model physical education (PE) curriculum begins by establishing a sound curricular foundation based on a lesson plan template that incorporates clear and concise program goals, the alignment of lessons to state or national content standards, and the collection, analysis and use of objective assessment data that informs…

  5. Building and Sustaining Digital Collections: Models for Libraries and Museums.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council on Library and Information Resources, Washington, DC.

    In February 2001, the Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR) and the National Initiative for a Networked Cultural Heritage (NINCH) convened a meeting to discuss how museums and libraries are building digital collections and what business models are available to sustain them. A group of museum and library senior executives met with…

  6. Building information modeling (BIM) approach to the GMT Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teran, Jose; Sheehan, Michael; Neff, Daniel H.; Adriaanse, David; Grigel, Eric; Farahani, Arash

    2014-07-01

    The Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT), one of several next generation Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs), is a 25.4 meter diameter altitude over azimuth design set to be built at the summit of Cerro Campánas at the Las Campánas Observatory in Chile. The paper describes the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) for the GMT project.

  7. A Relationship-Building Model for the Web Retail Marketplace.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Fang; Head, Milena; Archer, Norm

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the effects of the Web on marketing practices. Introduces the concept and theory of relationship marketing. The relationship network concept, which typically is only applied to the business-to-business market, is discussed within the business-to-consumer market, and a new relationship-building model for the Web marketplace is proposed.…

  8. Getting Started and Working with Building Information Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Dana K.

    2009-01-01

    This article will assume that one has heard of Building Information Modeling or BIM but has not developed a strategy as to how to get the most out of it. The National BIM Standard (NBIMS) has defined BIM as a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a facility. As such, it serves as a shared knowledge resource for…

  9. Overcoming Microsoft Excel's Weaknesses for Crop Model Building and Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sung, Christopher Teh Boon

    2011-01-01

    Using spreadsheets such as Microsoft Excel for building crop models and running simulations can be beneficial. Excel is easy to use, powerful, and versatile, and it requires the least proficiency in computer programming compared to other programming platforms. Excel, however, has several weaknesses: it does not directly support loops for iterative…

  10. Facilities Management of Existing School Buildings: Two Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Building Technology, Inc., Silver Spring, MD.

    While all school districts are responsible for the management of their existing buildings, they often approach the task in different ways. This document presents two models that offer ways a school district administration, regardless of size, may introduce activities into its ongoing management process that will lead to improvements in earthquake…

  11. Reframing Leadership Pedagogy through Model and Theory Building.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mello, Jeffrey A.

    1999-01-01

    Leadership theories formed the basis of a course assignment with four objectives: understanding complex factors affecting leadership dynamics, developing abilities to assess organizational factors influencing leadership, practicing model and theory building, and viewing leadership from a multicultural perspective. The assignment was to develop a…

  12. DEVELOPMENT AND MODELING OF REACTIVE BUILDING SYSTEMS: CLIMATE AND ILLUMINATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Desirability barriers regarding the human comfort level still remain in the public acceptance of passive solar energy homes. The goal of this project is to model sensing climate control and illumination building systems as they apply to a zero-energy Midwest home. In develop...

  13. Optimal stock liquidation in a regime switching model with finite time horizon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pemy, M.; Zhang, Q.

    2006-09-01

    This paper is concerned with a finite-horizon optimal selling rule. A set of geometric Brownian motions coupled by a finite-state Markov chain is used to characterize stock price movements. Given a fixed transaction fee, the optimal selling rule can be obtained by solving an optimal stopping problem. The corresponding value function is shown to be the unique viscosity solution to the associated HJB equations. Numerical solutions to these equations and their convergence are obtained. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the results.

  14. Enhancements to ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Prototype Building Models

    SciTech Connect

    Goel, Supriya; Athalye, Rahul A.; Wang, Weimin; Zhang, Jian; Rosenberg, Michael I.; Xie, YuLong; Hart, Philip R.; Mendon, Vrushali V.

    2014-04-16

    This report focuses on enhancements to prototype building models used to determine the energy impact of various versions of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1. Since the last publication of the prototype building models, PNNL has made numerous enhancements to the original prototype models compliant with the 2004, 2007, and 2010 editions of Standard 90.1. Those enhancements are described here and were made for several reasons: (1) to change or improve prototype design assumptions; (2) to improve the simulation accuracy; (3) to improve the simulation infrastructure; and (4) to add additional detail to the models needed to capture certain energy impacts from Standard 90.1 improvements. These enhancements impact simulated prototype energy use, and consequently impact the savings estimated from edition to edition of Standard 90.1.

  15. Early experiences building a software quality prediction model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Agresti, W. W.; Evanco, W. M.; Smith, M. C.

    1990-01-01

    Early experiences building a software quality prediction model are discussed. The overall research objective is to establish a capability to project a software system's quality from an analysis of its design. The technical approach is to build multivariate models for estimating reliability and maintainability. Data from 21 Ada subsystems were analyzed to test hypotheses about various design structures leading to failure-prone or unmaintainable systems. Current design variables highlight the interconnectivity and visibility of compilation units. Other model variables provide for the effects of reusability and software changes. Reported results are preliminary because additional project data is being obtained and new hypotheses are being developed and tested. Current multivariate regression models are encouraging, explaining 60 to 80 percent of the variation in error density of the subsystems.

  16. On a computational model of building thermal dynamic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarošová, Petra; Vala, Jiří

    2016-07-01

    Development and exploitation of advanced materials, structures and technologies in civil engineering, both for buildings with carefully controlled interior temperature and for common residential houses, together with new European and national directives and technical standards, stimulate the development of rather complex and robust, but sufficiently simple and inexpensive computational tools, supporting their design and optimization of energy consumption. This paper demonstrates the possibility of consideration of such seemingly contradictory requirements, using the simplified non-stationary thermal model of a building, motivated by the analogy with the analysis of electric circuits; certain semi-analytical forms of solutions come from the method of lines.

  17. Modelling the impact of agricultural management on soil carbon stocks at the regional scale: the role of lateral fluxes.

    PubMed

    Nadeu, Elisabet; Gobin, Anne; Fiener, Peter; van Wesemael, Bas; van Oost, Kristof

    2015-08-01

    Agricultural management has received increased attention over the last decades due to its central role in carbon (C) sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation. Yet, regardless of the large body of literature on the effects of soil erosion by tillage and water on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural landscapes, the significance of soil redistribution for the overall C budget and the C sequestration potential of land management options remains poorly quantified. In this study, we explore the role of lateral SOC fluxes in regional scale modelling of SOC stocks under three different agricultural management practices in central Belgium: conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and reduced tillage with additional carbon input (RT+i). We assessed each management scenario twice: using a conventional approach that did not account for lateral fluxes and an alternative approach that included soil erosion-induced lateral SOC fluxes. The results show that accounting for lateral fluxes increased C sequestration rates by 2.7, 2.5 and 1.5 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) for CT, RT and RT+i, respectively, relative to the conventional approach. Soil redistribution also led to a reduction of SOC concentration in the plough layer and increased the spatial variability of SOC stocks, suggesting that C sequestration studies relying on changes in the plough layer may underestimate the soil's C sequestration potential due to the effects of soil erosion. Additionally, lateral C export from cropland was in the same of order of magnitude as C sequestration; hence, the fate of C exported from cropland into other land uses is crucial to determine the ultimate impact of management and erosion on the landscape C balance. Consequently, soil management strategies targeting C sequestration will be most effective when accompanied by measures that reduce soil erosion given that erosion loss can balance potential C uptake, particularly in sloping areas. PMID:25663657

  18. 7 CFR Exhibit E to Subpart A of... - Voluntary National Model Building Codes

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Voluntary National Model Building Codes E Exhibit E... National Model Building Codes The following documents address the health and safety aspects of buildings and related structures and are voluntary national model building codes as defined in § 1924.4(h)(2)...

  19. 7 CFR Exhibit E to Subpart A of... - Voluntary National Model Building Codes

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Voluntary National Model Building Codes E Exhibit E... National Model Building Codes The following documents address the health and safety aspects of buildings and related structures and are voluntary national model building codes as defined in § 1924.4(h)(2)...

  20. 7 CFR Exhibit E to Subpart A of... - Voluntary National Model Building Codes

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Voluntary National Model Building Codes E Exhibit E to... Model Building Codes The following documents address the health and safety aspects of buildings and related structures and are voluntary national model building codes as defined in § 1924.4(h)(2) of...

  1. 7 CFR Exhibit E to Subpart A of... - Voluntary National Model Building Codes

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Voluntary National Model Building Codes E Exhibit E... National Model Building Codes The following documents address the health and safety aspects of buildings and related structures and are voluntary national model building codes as defined in § 1924.4(h)(2)...

  2. Building America Top Innovations 2012: Model Simulating Real Domestic Hot Water Use

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2013-01-01

    This Building America Top Innovations profile describes Building America research that is improving domestic hot water modeling capabilities to more effectively address one of the largest energy uses in residential buildings.

  3. First Prismatic Building Model Reconstruction from Tomosar Point Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Y.; Shahzad, M.; Zhu, X.

    2016-06-01

    This paper demonstrates for the first time the potential of explicitly modelling the individual roof surfaces to reconstruct 3-D prismatic building models using spaceborne tomographic synthetic aperture radar (TomoSAR) point clouds. The proposed approach is modular and works as follows: it first extracts the buildings via DSM generation and cutting-off the ground terrain. The DSM is smoothed using BM3D denoising method proposed in (Dabov et al., 2007) and a gradient map of the smoothed DSM is generated based on height jumps. Watershed segmentation is then adopted to oversegment the DSM into different regions. Subsequently, height and polygon complexity constrained merging is employed to refine (i.e., to reduce) the retrieved number of roof segments. Coarse outline of each roof segment is then reconstructed and later refined using quadtree based regularization plus zig-zag line simplification scheme. Finally, height is associated to each refined roof segment to obtain the 3-D prismatic model of the building. The proposed approach is illustrated and validated over a large building (convention center) in the city of Las Vegas using TomoSAR point clouds generated from a stack of 25 images using Tomo-GENESIS software developed at DLR.

  4. A method for building 3D models of barchan dunes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nai, Yang; Li-lan, Su; Lin, Wan; Jie, Yang; Shi-yi, Chen; Wei-lu, Hu

    2016-01-01

    The distributions of barchan dunes are usually represented by digital terrain models (DTMs) overlaid with digital orthophoto maps. Given that most regions with barchan dues have low relief, a 3D map obtained from a DTM may ineffectively show the stereoscopic shape of each dune. The method of building 3D models of barchan dunes using existing modeling software seldom considers the geographical environment. As a result, barchan dune models are often inconsistent with actual DTMs and incompletely express the morphological characteristics of dunes. Manual construction of barchan dune models is also costly and time consuming. Considering these problems, the morphological characteristics of barchan dunes and the mathematical relationships between the morphological parameters of the dunes, such as length, height, and width, are analyzed in this study. The methods of extracting the morphological feature points of barchan dunes, calculating their morphological parameters and building dune outlines and skeleton lines based on the medial axes, are also presented. The dune outlines, skeleton lines, and part of the medial axes of dunes are used to construct a constrained triangulated irregular network. C# and ArcEngine are employed to build 3D models of barchan dunes automatically. Experimental results of a study conducted in Tengger Desert show that the method can be used to approximate the morphological characteristics of barchan dunes and is less time consuming than manual methods.

  5. Model-Driven Engineering Support for Building C# Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derezińska, Anna; Ołtarzewski, Przemysław

    Realization of Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) vision of software development requires a comprehensive and user-friendly tool support. This paper presents a UML-based approach for building trustful C# applications. UML models are refined using profiles for assigning class model elements to C# concepts and to elements of implementation project. Stereotyped elements are verified on life and during model to code transformation in order to prevent creation of an incorrect code. The Transform OCL Fragments into C# system (T.O.F.I.C.) was created as a feature of the Eclipse environment. The system extends the IBM Rational Software Architect tool.

  6. Vhrs Stereo Images for 3d Modelling of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bujakiewicz, A.; Holc, M.

    2012-07-01

    The paper presents the project which was carried out in the Photogrammetric Laboratory of Warsaw University of Technology. The experiment is concerned with the extraction of 3D vector data for buildings creation from 3D photogrammetric model based on the Ikonos stereo images. The model was reconstructed with photogrammetric workstation - Summit Evolution combined with ArcGIS 3D platform. Accuracy of 3D model was significantly improved by use for orientation of pair of satellite images the stereo measured tie points distributed uniformly around the model area in addition to 5 control points. The RMS for model reconstructed on base of the RPC coefficients only were 16,6 m, 2,7 m and 47,4 m, for X, Y and Z coordinates, respectively. By addition of 5 control points the RMS were improved to 0,7 m, 0,7 m 1,0 m, where the best results were achieved when RMS were estimated from deviations in 17 check points (with 5 control points)and amounted to 0,4 m, 0,5 m and 0,6 m, for X, Y, and Z respectively. The extracted 3D vector data for buildings were integrated with 2D data of the ground footprints and afterwards they were used for 3D modelling of buildings in Google SketchUp software. The final results were compared with the reference data obtained from other sources. It was found that the shape of buildings (in concern to the number of details) had been reconstructed on level of LoD1, when the accuracy of these models corresponded to the level of LoD2.

  7. Infiltration modeling guidelines for commercial building energy analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gowri, Krishnan; Winiarski, David W.; Jarnagin, Ronald E.

    2009-09-30

    This report presents a methodology for modeling air infiltration in EnergyPlus to account for envelope air barrier characteristics. Based on a review of various infiltration modeling options available in EnergyPlus and sensitivity analysis, the linear wind velocity coefficient based on DOE-2 infiltration model is recommended. The methodology described in this report can be used to calculate the EnergyPlus infiltration input for any given building level infiltration rate specified at known pressure difference. The sensitivity analysis shows that EnergyPlus calculates the wind speed based on zone altitude, and the linear wind velocity coefficient represents the variation in infiltration heat loss consistent with building location and weather data.

  8. Probabilistic updating of building models using incomplete modal data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Hao; Büyüköztürk, Oral

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates a new probabilistic strategy for Bayesian model updating using incomplete modal data. Direct mode matching between the measured and the predicted modal quantities is not required in the updating process, which is realized through model reduction. A Markov chain Monte Carlo technique with adaptive random-walk steps is proposed to draw the samples for model parameter uncertainty quantification. The iterated improved reduced system technique is employed to update the prediction error as well as to calculate the likelihood function in the sampling process. Since modal quantities are used in the model updating, modal identification is first carried out to extract the natural frequencies and mode shapes through the acceleration measurements of the structural system. The proposed algorithm is finally validated by both numerical and experimental examples: a 10-storey building with synthetic data and a 8-storey building with shaking table test data. Results illustrate that the proposed algorithm is effective and robust for parameter uncertainty quantification in probabilistic model updating of buildings.

  9. A stock market forecasting model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis and radial basis function neural network.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Yang, Jie; Miller, David J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D)2PCA) and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D)2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D)2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron. PMID:25849483

  10. Development and assessment of a physics-based simulation model to investigate residential PM2.5 infiltration across the US housing stock

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Population Impact Assessment Modeling Framework (PIAMF) was expanded to enable determination of indoor PM2.5 concentrations and exposures in a set of 50,000 homes representing the US housing stock. A mass-balance model is used to calculat...

  11. A Stock Market Forecasting Model Combining Two-Directional Two-Dimensional Principal Component Analysis and Radial Basis Function Neural Network

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Yang, Jie; Miller, David J.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D)2PCA) and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D)2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D)2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron. PMID:25849483

  12. Building 235-F Goldsim Fate And Transport Model

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, G. A.; Phifer, M. A.

    2012-09-14

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) personnel, at the request of Area Completion Projects (ACP), evaluated In-Situ Disposal (ISD) alternatives that are under consideration for deactivation and decommissioning (D&D) of Building 235-F and the Building 294-2F Sand Filter. SRNL personnel developed and used a GoldSim fate and transport model, which is consistent with Musall 2012, to evaluate relative to groundwater protection, ISD alternatives that involve either source removal and/or the grouting of portions or all of 235-F. This evaluation was conducted through the development and use of a Building 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model. The model simulates contaminant release from four 235-F process areas and the 294-2F Sand Filter. In addition, it simulates the fate and transport through the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) aquifer, and the Upper Three Runs (UTR) creek. The model is designed as a stochastic model, and as such it can provide both deterministic and stochastic (probabilistic) results. The results show that the median radium activity concentrations exceed the 5 ?Ci/L radium MCL at the edge of the building for all ISD alternatives after 10,000 years, except those with a sufficient amount of inventory removed. A very interesting result was that grouting was shown to basically have minimal effect on the radium activity concentration. During the first 1,000 years grouting may have some small positive benefit relative to radium, however after that it may have a slightly deleterious effect. The Pb-210 results, relative to its 0.06 ?Ci/L PRG, are essentially identical to the radium results, but the Pb-210 results exhibit a lesser degree of exceedance. In summary, some level of inventory removal will be required to ensure that groundwater standards are met.

  13. Air Dispersion Modeling for Building 3026C/D Demolition

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, Richard C; Sjoreen, Andrea L; Eckerman, Keith F

    2010-06-01

    This report presents estimates of dispersion coefficients and effective dose for potential air dispersion scenarios of uncontrolled releases from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) buildings 3026C, 3026D, and 3140 prior to or during the demolition of the 3026 Complex. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AERMOD system1-6 was used to compute these estimates. AERMOD stands for AERMIC Model, where AERMIC is the American Meteorological Society-EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee. Five source locations (three in building 3026D and one each in building 3026C and the filter house 3140) and associated source characteristics were determined with the customer. In addition, the area of study was determined and building footprints and intake locations of air-handling systems were obtained. In addition to the air intakes, receptor sites consisting of ground level locations on four polar grids (50 m, 100 m, 200 m, and 500 m) and two intersecting lines of points (50 m separation), corresponding to sidewalks along Central Avenue and Fifth Street. Three years of meteorological data (2006 2008) were used each consisting of three datasets: 1) National Weather Service data; 2) upper air data for the Knoxville-Oak Ridge area; and 3) local weather data from Tower C (10 m, 30 m and 100 m) on the ORNL reservation. Annual average air concentration, highest 1 h average and highest 3 h average air concentrations were computed using AERMOD for the five source locations for the three years of meteorological data. The highest 1 h average air concentrations were converted to dispersion coefficients to characterize the atmospheric dispersion as the customer was interested in the most significant response and the highest 1 h average data reflects the best time-averaged values available from the AERMOD code. Results are presented in tabular and graphical form. The results for dose were obtained using radionuclide activities for each of the buildings provided by the customer.7

  14. Combining a Detailed Building Energy Model with a Physically-Based Urban Canopy Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bueno, Bruno; Norford, Leslie; Pigeon, Grégoire; Britter, Rex

    2011-09-01

    A scheme that couples a detailed building energy model, EnergyPlus, and an urban canopy model, the Town Energy Balance (TEB), is presented. Both models are well accepted and evaluated within their individual scientific communities. The coupled scheme proposes a more realistic representation of buildings and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which allows a broader analysis of the two-way interactions between the energy performance of buildings and the urban climate around the buildings. The scheme can be used to evaluate the building energy models that are being developed within the urban climate community. In this study, the coupled scheme is evaluated using measurements conducted over the dense urban centre of Toulouse, France. The comparison includes electricity and natural gas energy consumption of buildings, building façade temperatures, and urban canyon air temperatures. The coupled scheme is then used to analyze the effect of different building and HVAC system configurations on building energy consumption, waste heat released from HVAC systems, and outdoor air temperatures for the case study of Toulouse. Three different energy efficiency strategies are analyzed: shading devices, economizers, and heat recovery.

  15. Active buildings: modelling physical activity and movement in office buildings. An observational study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Lee; Ucci, Marcella; Marmot, Alexi; Spinney, Richard; Laskowski, Marek; Sawyer, Alexia; Konstantatou, Marina; Hamer, Mark; Ambler, Gareth; Wardle, Jane; Fisher, Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Health benefits of regular participation in physical activity are well documented but population levels are low. Office layout, and in particular the number and location of office building destinations (eg, print and meeting rooms), may influence both walking time and characteristics of sitting time. No research to date has focused on the role that the layout of the indoor office environment plays in facilitating or inhibiting step counts and characteristics of sitting time. The primary aim of this study was to investigate associations between office layout and physical activity, as well as sitting time using objective measures. Methods and analysis Active buildings is a unique collaboration between public health, built environment and computer science researchers. The study involves objective monitoring complemented by a larger questionnaire arm. UK office buildings will be selected based on a variety of features, including office floor area and number of occupants. Questionnaires will include items on standard demographics, well-being, physical activity behaviour and putative socioecological correlates of workplace physical activity. Based on survey responses, approximately 30 participants will be recruited from each building into the objective monitoring arm. Participants will wear accelerometers (to monitor physical activity and sitting inside and outside the office) and a novel tracking device will be placed in the office (to record participant location) for five consecutive days. Data will be analysed using regression analyses, as well as novel agent-based modelling techniques. Ethics and dissemination The results of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and scientific presentations. Ethical approval was obtained through the University College London Research Ethics Committee (Reference number 4400/001). PMID:24227873

  16. Lidar-equipped uav for building information modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roca, D.; Armesto, J.; Lagüela, S.; Díaz-Vilariño, L.

    2014-06-01

    The trend to minimize electronic devices in the last decades accounts for Unmanned Airborne Vehicles (UAVs) as well as for sensor technologies and imaging devices, resulting in a strong revolution in the surveying and mapping industries. However, only within the last few years the LIDAR sensor technology has achieved sufficiently reduction in terms of size and weight to be considered for UAV platforms. This paper presents an innovative solution to capture point cloud data from a Lidar-equipped UAV and further perform the 3D modelling of the whole envelope of buildings in BIM format. A mini-UAV platform is used (weigh less than 5 kg and up to 1.5 kg of sensor payload), and data from two different acquisition methodologies is processed and compared with the aim at finding the optimal configuration for the generation of 3D models of buildings for energy studies

  17. A model for simulating airflow and pollutant dispersion around buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Chan, S T; Lee, R L

    1999-02-24

    A three-dimensional, numerical mode1 for simulating airflow and pollutant dispersion around buildings is described. The model is based on an innovative finite element approach and fully implicit time integration techniques. Linear and nonlinear eddy viscosity/diffusivity submodels are provided for turbulence parameterization. Mode1 predictions for the flow-field and dispersion patterns around a surface-mounted cube are compared with measured data from laboratory experiments.

  18. Understanding Building Infrastructure and Building Operation through DOE Asset Score Model: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Na; Goel, Supriya; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Makhmalbaf, Atefe

    2013-06-24

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing a national voluntary energy asset score system to help building owners to evaluate the as-built physical characteristics (including building envelope, the mechanical and electrical systems) and overall building energy efficiency, independent of occupancy and operational choices. The energy asset score breaks down building energy use information by simulating building performance under typical operating and occupancy conditions for a given use type. A web-based modeling tool, the energy asset score tool facilitates the implementation of the asset score system. The tool consists of a simplified user interface built on a centralized simulation engine (EnergyPlus). It is intended to reduce both the implementation cost for the users and increase modeling standardization compared with an approach that requires users to build their own energy models. A pilot project with forty-two buildings (consisting mostly offices and schools) was conducted in 2012. This paper reports the findings. Participants were asked to collect a minimum set of building data and enter it into the asset score tool. Participants also provided their utility bills, existing ENERGY STAR scores, and previous energy audit/modeling results if available. The results from the asset score tool were compared with the building energy use data provided by the pilot participants. Three comparisons were performed. First, the actual building energy use, either from the utility bills or via ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager, was compared with the modeled energy use. It was intended to examine how well the energy asset score represents a building’s system efficiencies, and how well it is correlated to a building’s actual energy consumption. Second, calibrated building energy models (where they exist) were used to examine any discrepancies between the asset score model and the pilot participant buildings’ [known] energy use pattern. This comparison examined the end

  19. Arbitrage and Volatility in Chinese Stock's Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo

    From the point of view of no-arbitrage pricing, what matters is how much volatility the stock has, for volatility measures the amount of profit that can be made from shorting stocks and purchasing options. With the short-sales constraints or in the absence of options, however, high volatility is likely to mean arbitrage from stock market. As emerging stock markets for China, investors are increasingly concerned about volatilities of Chinese two stock markets. We estimate volatility's models for Chinese stock markets' indexes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and GARCH. We find that estimated values of volatility parameters are very high for all data frequencies. It suggests that stock returns are extremely volatile even at long term intervals in Chinese markets. Furthermore, this result could be considered that there seems to be arbitrage opportunities in Chinese stock markets.

  20. Simulation and Big Data Challenges in Tuning Building Energy Models

    SciTech Connect

    Sanyal, Jibonananda; New, Joshua Ryan

    2013-01-01

    EnergyPlus is the flagship building energy simulation software used to model whole building energy consumption for residential and commercial establishments. A typical input to the program often has hundreds, sometimes thousands of parameters which are typically tweaked by a buildings expert to get it right . This process can sometimes take months. Autotune is an ongoing research effort employing machine learning techniques to automate the tuning of the input parameters for an EnergyPlus input description of a building. Even with automation, the computational challenge faced to run the tuning simulation ensemble is daunting and requires the use of supercomputers to make it tractable in time. In this proposal, we describe the scope of the problem, the technical challenges faced and overcome, the machine learning techniques developed and employed, and the software infrastructure developed/in development when taking the EnergyPlus engine, which was primarily designed to run on desktops, and scaling it to run on shared memory supercomputers (Nautilus) and distributed memory supercomputers (Frost and Titan). The parametric simulations produce data in the order of tens to a couple of hundred terabytes.We describe the approaches employed to streamline and reduce bottlenecks in the workflow for this data, which is subsequently being made available for the tuning effort as well as made available publicly for open-science.

  1. Progressive evaluation of incorporating information into a model building process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gao, Hongkai; Gupta, Hoshin; Savenije, Huub

    2014-05-01

    Catchments are open systems meaning that it is impossible to find out the exact boundary conditions of the real system spatially and temporarily. Therefore models are essential tools in capturing system behaviour spatially and extrapolating it temporarily for prediction. In recent years conceptual models have been in the center of attention rather than so called physically based models which are often over-parameterized and encounter difficulties for up-scaling of small scale processes. Conceptual models however are heavily dependent on calibration as one or more of their parameter values can typically not be physically measured at the catchment scale. The general understanding is based on the fact that increasing the complexity of conceptual model for better representation of hydrological process heterogeneity typically makes parameter identification more difficult however the evaluation of the amount of information given by each of the model elements, control volumes (so called buckets), interconnecting fluxes, parameterization (constitutive functions) and finally parameter values are rather unknown. Each of the mentioned components of a model contains information on the transformation of forcing (precipitation) into runoff, however the effect of each of them solely and together is not well understood. In this study we follow hierarchal steps for model building, firstly the model structure is built by its building blocks (control volumes) as well as interconnecting fluxes. The effect of adding every control volumes and the architecture of the model (formation of control volumes and fluxes) can be evaluated in this level. In the second layer the parameterization of model is evaluated. As an example the effect of a specific type of stage-discharge relation for a control volume can be explored. Finally in the last step of the model building the information gained by parameter values are quantified. In each development level the value of information which are added

  2. Validation of Building Energy Modeling Tools Under Idealized and Realistic Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, Emily M.; Sanquist, Thomas F.

    2012-04-02

    Building energy models provide valuable insight into the energy use of commercial and residential buildings based on the building architecture, materials and thermal loads. They are used in the design of new buildings and the retrofitting to increase the efficiency of older buildings. The accuracy of these models is crucial to reducing the energy use of the United States and building a sustainable energy future. In addition to the architecture and thermal loads of a building, building energy models also must account for the effects of the building's occupants on the energy use of the building. Traditionally simple schedule based methods have been used to account for the effects of the occupants. However, newer research has shown that these methods often result in large differences between the modeled and actual energy use of buildings. In this paper we discuss building energy models and their accuracy in predicting building energy use. In particular we focus on the different types of validation methods which have been used to investigate the accuracy of building energy models and how they account for (or do not account for) the effects of occupants. We also review some of the newer work on stochastic methods for estimating the effects of occupants on building energy use and discuss the improvements necessary to increase the accuracy of building energy models.

  3. Carbon stocks and cycling in the Amazon basin: Measurement and modeling of natural disturbance and recovery using airborne LIDAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunter, Maria O'Healy

    Forest structure, the three dimensional distribution of living and dead plant material including live crowns, understory vegetation and coarse woody debris, is the concrete physical form of carbon storage, the framework for biodiversity, and the instantaneous manifestation of disturbance and recovery processes. The frequency of disturbance and rate of decomposition drives the fractions of living and dead biomass, and the size of and intensity of disturbance drives the rate and species composition of forest recovery; both are primary sinks and sources in the carbon cycle. To improve understanding of disturbance and recovery processes, high-resolution airborne LIDAR (light detection and ranging) data from the Amazon region is combined with field measurements to analyze forest structure. These measurements are incorporated into a simple model to estimate light availability and the associated changes in carbon stocks. This work improves the understanding of Amazon forest dynamics and its role in the carbon cycle.

  4. Toward Accessing Spatial Structure from Building Information Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, C.; Bhatt, M.

    2011-08-01

    Data about building designs and layouts is becoming increasingly more readily available. In the near future, service personal (such as maintenance staff or emergency rescue workers) arriving at a building site will have immediate real-time access to enormous amounts of data relating to structural properties, utilities, materials, temperature, and so on. The critical problem for users is the taxing and error prone task of interpreting such a large body of facts in order to extract salient information. This is necessary for comprehending a situation and deciding on a plan of action, and is a particularly serious issue in time-critical and safety-critical activities such as firefighting. Current unifying building models such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC), while being comprehensive, do not directly provide data structures that focus on spatial reasoning and spatial modalities that are required for high-level analytical tasks. The aim of the research presented in this paper is to provide computational tools for higher level querying and reasoning that shift the cognitive burden of dealing with enormous amounts of data away from the user. The user can then spend more energy and time in planning and decision making in order to accomplish the tasks at hand. We present an overview of our framework that provides users with an enhanced model of "built-up space". In order to test our approach using realistic design data (in terms of both scale and the nature of the building models) we describe how our system interfaces with IFC, and we conduct timing experiments to determine the practicality of our approach. We discuss general computational approaches for deriving higher-level spatial modalities by focusing on the example of route graphs. Finally, we present a firefighting scenario with alternative route graphs to motivate the application of our framework.

  5. An Evolving Model for Capacity Building with Earth Observation Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylak-Glassman, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    For the first forty years of Earth observation satellite imagery, all imagery was collected by civilian or military governmental satellites. Over this timeframe, countries without observation satellite capabilities had very limited access to Earth observation data or imagery. In response to the limited access to Earth observation systems, capacity building efforts were focused on satellite manufacturing. Wood and Weigel (2012) describe the evolution of satellite programs in developing countries with a technology ladder. A country moves up the ladder as they move from producing satellites with training services to building satellites locally. While the ladder model may be appropriate if the goal is to develop autonomous satellite manufacturing capability, in the realm of Earth observation, the goal is generally to derive societal benefit from the use of Earth observation-derived information. In this case, the model for developing Earth observation capacity is more appropriately described by a hub-and-spoke model in which the use of Earth observation imagery is the "hub," and the "spokes" describe the various paths to achieving that imagery: the building of a satellite (either independently or with assistance), the purchase of a satellite, participation in a constellation of satellites, and the use of freely available or purchased satellite imagery. We discuss the different capacity-building activities that are conducted in each of these pathways, such as the "Know-How Transfer and Training" program developed by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. , Earth observation imagery training courses run by SERVIR in developing countries, and the use of national or regional remote sensing centers (such as those in Morocco, Malaysia, and Kenya) to disseminate imagery and training. In addition, we explore the factors that determine through which "spoke" a country arrives at the ability to use Earth observation imagery, and discuss best practices for achieving the capability to use

  6. Contam airflow models of three large buildings: Model descriptions and validation

    SciTech Connect

    Black, Douglas R.; Price, Phillip N.

    2009-09-30

    Airflow and pollutant transport models are useful for several reasons, including protection from or response to biological terrorism. In recent years they have been used for deciding how many biological agent samplers are needed in a given building to detect the release of an agent; to figure out where those samplers should be located; to predict the number of people at risk in the event of a release of a given size and location; to devise response strategies in the event of a release; to determine optimal trade-offs between sampler characteristics (such as detection limit and response time); and so on. For some of these purposes it is necessary to model a specific building of interest: if you are trying to determine optimal sampling locations, you must have a model of your building and not some different building. But for many purposes generic or 'prototypical' building models would suffice. For example, for determining trade-offs between sampler characteristics, results from one building will carry over other, similar buildings. Prototypical building models are also useful for comparing or testing different algorithms or computational pproaches: different researchers can use the same models, thus allowing direct comparison of results in a way that is not otherwise possible. This document discusses prototypical building models developed by the Airflow and Pollutant Transport Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The models are implemented in the Contam v2.4c modeling program, available from the National Institutes for Standards and Technology. We present Contam airflow models of three virtual buildings: a convention center, an airport terminal, and a multi-story office building. All of the models are based to some extent on specific real buildings. Our goal is to produce models that are realistic, in terms of approximate magnitudes, directions, and speeds of airflow and pollutant transport. The three models vary substantially in detail. The airport model

  7. Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Rico; Ensslin, Andreas; Rutten, Gemma; Fischer, Markus; Schellenberger Costa, David; Kleyer, Michael; Hemp, Andreas; Paulick, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances. PMID:25915854

  8. Simulating carbon stocks and fluxes of an African tropical montane forest with an individual-based forest model.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Rico; Ensslin, Andreas; Rutten, Gemma; Fischer, Markus; Schellenberger Costa, David; Kleyer, Michael; Hemp, Andreas; Paulick, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha(-1) yr(-1). Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances. PMID:25915854

  9. User-friendly graph editing for procedural modeling of buildings.

    PubMed

    Patow, Gustavo

    2012-01-01

    A proposed rule-based editing metaphor intuitively lets artists create buildings without changing their workflow. It's based on the realization that the rule base represents a directed acyclic graph and on a shift in the development paradigm from product-based to rule-based representations. Users can visually add or edit rules, connect them to control the workflow, and easily create commands that expand the artist's toolbox (for example, Boolean operations or local controlling operators). This approach opens new possibilities, from model verification to model editing through graph rewriting. PMID:24804948

  10. Vision-based building energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis using 3D thermography and building information modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ham, Youngjib

    The emerging energy crisis in the building sector and the legislative measures on improving energy efficiency are steering the construction industry towards adopting new energy efficient design concepts and construction methods that decrease the overall energy loads. However, the problems of energy efficiency are not only limited to the design and construction of new buildings. Today, a significant amount of input energy in existing buildings is still being wasted during the operational phase. One primary source of the energy waste is attributed to unnecessary heat flows through building envelopes during hot and cold seasons. This inefficiency increases the operational frequency of heating and cooling systems to keep the desired thermal comfort of building occupants, and ultimately results in excessive energy use. Improving thermal performance of building envelopes can reduce the energy consumption required for space conditioning and in turn provide building occupants with an optimal thermal comfort at a lower energy cost. In this sense, energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis for existing building envelopes are key enablers for improving energy efficiency. Since proper retrofit decisions of existing buildings directly translate into energy cost saving in the future, building practitioners are increasingly interested in methods for reliable identification of potential performance problems so that they can take timely corrective actions. However, sensing what and where energy problems are emerging or are likely to emerge and then analyzing how the problems influence the energy consumption are not trivial tasks. The overarching goal of this dissertation focuses on understanding the gaps in knowledge in methods for building energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis, and filling these gaps by devising a new method for multi-modal visual sensing and analytics using thermography and Building Information Modeling (BIM). First, to address the challenges in scaling and

  11. Scalable tuning of building models to hourly data

    SciTech Connect

    Garrett, Aaron; New, Joshua Ryan

    2015-03-31

    Energy models of existing buildings are unreliable unless calibrated so they correlate well with actual energy usage. Manual tuning requires a skilled professional, is prohibitively expensive for small projects, imperfect, non-repeatable, non-transferable, and not scalable to the dozens of sensor channels that smart meters, smart appliances, and cheap/ubiquitous sensors are beginning to make available today. A scalable, automated methodology is needed to quickly and intelligently calibrate building energy models to all available data, increase the usefulness of those models, and facilitate speed-and-scale penetration of simulation-based capabilities into the marketplace for actualized energy savings. The "Autotune'' project is a novel, model-agnostic methodology which leverages supercomputing, large simulation ensembles, and big data mining with multiple machine learning algorithms to allow automatic calibration of simulations that match measured experimental data in a way that is deployable on commodity hardware. This paper shares several methodologies employed to reduce the combinatorial complexity to a computationally tractable search problem for hundreds of input parameters. Furthermore, accuracy metrics are provided which quantify model error to measured data for either monthly or hourly electrical usage from a highly-instrumented, emulated-occupancy research home.

  12. Scalable tuning of building models to hourly data

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Garrett, Aaron; New, Joshua Ryan

    2015-03-31

    Energy models of existing buildings are unreliable unless calibrated so they correlate well with actual energy usage. Manual tuning requires a skilled professional, is prohibitively expensive for small projects, imperfect, non-repeatable, non-transferable, and not scalable to the dozens of sensor channels that smart meters, smart appliances, and cheap/ubiquitous sensors are beginning to make available today. A scalable, automated methodology is needed to quickly and intelligently calibrate building energy models to all available data, increase the usefulness of those models, and facilitate speed-and-scale penetration of simulation-based capabilities into the marketplace for actualized energy savings. The "Autotune'' project is a novel, model-agnosticmore » methodology which leverages supercomputing, large simulation ensembles, and big data mining with multiple machine learning algorithms to allow automatic calibration of simulations that match measured experimental data in a way that is deployable on commodity hardware. This paper shares several methodologies employed to reduce the combinatorial complexity to a computationally tractable search problem for hundreds of input parameters. Furthermore, accuracy metrics are provided which quantify model error to measured data for either monthly or hourly electrical usage from a highly-instrumented, emulated-occupancy research home.« less

  13. Procedural Modeling for Rapid-Prototyping of Multiple Building Phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldana, M.; Johanson, C.

    2013-02-01

    RomeLab is a multidisciplinary working group at UCLA that uses the city of Rome as a laboratory for the exploration of research approaches and dissemination practices centered on the intersection of space and time in antiquity. In this paper we present a multiplatform workflow for the rapid-prototyping of historical cityscapes through the use of geographic information systems, procedural modeling, and interactive game development. Our workflow begins by aggregating archaeological data in a GIS database. Next, 3D building models are generated from the ArcMap shapefiles in Esri CityEngine using procedural modeling techniques. A GIS-based terrain model is also adjusted in CityEngine to fit the building elevations. Finally, the terrain and city models are combined in Unity, a game engine which we used to produce web-based interactive environments which are linked to the GIS data using keyhole markup language (KML). The goal of our workflow is to demonstrate that knowledge generated within a first-person virtual world experience can inform the evaluation of data derived from textual and archaeological sources, and vice versa.

  14. 3D Building Evacuation Route Modelling and Visualization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, W.; Armenakis, C.

    2014-11-01

    The most common building evacuation approach currently applied is to have evacuation routes planned prior to these emergency events. These routes are usually the shortest and most practical path from each building room to the closest exit. The problem with this approach is that it is not adaptive. It is not responsively configurable relative to the type, intensity, or location of the emergency risk. Moreover, it does not provide any information to the affected persons or to the emergency responders while not allowing for the review of simulated hazard scenarios and alternative evacuation routes. In this paper we address two main tasks. The first is the modelling of the spatial risk caused by a hazardous event leading to choosing the optimal evacuation route for a set of options. The second is to generate a 3D visual representation of the model output. A multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach is used to model the risk aiming at finding the optimal evacuation route. This is achieved by using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) on the criteria describing the different alternative evacuation routes. The best route is then chosen to be the alternative with the least cost. The 3D visual representation of the model displays the building, the surrounding environment, the evacuee's location, the hazard location, the risk areas and the optimal evacuation pathway to the target safety location. The work has been performed using ESRI's ArcGIS. Using the developed models, the user can input the location of the hazard and the location of the evacuee. The system then determines the optimum evacuation route and displays it in 3D.

  15. Functional Testing Protocols for Commercial Building Efficiency Baseline Modeling Software

    SciTech Connect

    Jump, David; Price, Phillip N.; Granderson, Jessica; Sohn, Michael

    2013-09-06

    This document describes procedures for testing and validating proprietary baseline energy modeling software accuracy in predicting energy use over the period of interest, such as a month or a year. The procedures are designed according to the methodology used for public domain baselining software in another LBNL report that was (like the present report) prepared for Pacific Gas and Electric Company: ?Commercial Building Energy Baseline Modeling Software: Performance Metrics and Method Testing with Open Source Models and Implications for Proprietary Software Testing Protocols? (referred to here as the ?Model Analysis Report?). The test procedure focuses on the quality of the software?s predictions rather than on the specific algorithms used to predict energy use. In this way the software vendor is not required to divulge or share proprietary information about how their software works, while enabling stakeholders to assess its performance.

  16. Finite Element Analysis of Osteosynthesis Screw Fixation in the Bone Stock: An Appropriate Method for Automatic Screw Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Wieding, Jan; Souffrant, Robert; Fritsche, Andreas; Mittelmeier, Wolfram; Bader, Rainer

    2012-01-01

    The use of finite element analysis (FEA) has grown to a more and more important method in the field of biomedical engineering and biomechanics. Although increased computational performance allows new ways to generate more complex biomechanical models, in the area of orthopaedic surgery, solid modelling of screws and drill holes represent a limitation of their use for individual cases and an increase of computational costs. To cope with these requirements, different methods for numerical screw modelling have therefore been investigated to improve its application diversity. Exemplarily, fixation was performed for stabilization of a large segmental femoral bone defect by an osteosynthesis plate. Three different numerical modelling techniques for implant fixation were used in this study, i.e. without screw modelling, screws as solid elements as well as screws as structural elements. The latter one offers the possibility to implement automatically generated screws with variable geometry on arbitrary FE models. Structural screws were parametrically generated by a Python script for the automatic generation in the FE-software Abaqus/CAE on both a tetrahedral and a hexahedral meshed femur. Accuracy of the FE models was confirmed by experimental testing using a composite femur with a segmental defect and an identical osteosynthesis plate for primary stabilisation with titanium screws. Both deflection of the femoral head and the gap alteration were measured with an optical measuring system with an accuracy of approximately 3 µm. For both screw modelling techniques a sufficient correlation of approximately 95% between numerical and experimental analysis was found. Furthermore, using structural elements for screw modelling the computational time could be reduced by 85% using hexahedral elements instead of tetrahedral elements for femur meshing. The automatically generated screw modelling offers a realistic simulation of the osteosynthesis fixation with screws in the adjacent

  17. Finite element analysis of osteosynthesis screw fixation in the bone stock: an appropriate method for automatic screw modelling.

    PubMed

    Wieding, Jan; Souffrant, Robert; Fritsche, Andreas; Mittelmeier, Wolfram; Bader, Rainer

    2012-01-01

    The use of finite element analysis (FEA) has grown to a more and more important method in the field of biomedical engineering and biomechanics. Although increased computational performance allows new ways to generate more complex biomechanical models, in the area of orthopaedic surgery, solid modelling of screws and drill holes represent a limitation of their use for individual cases and an increase of computational costs. To cope with these requirements, different methods for numerical screw modelling have therefore been investigated to improve its application diversity. Exemplarily, fixation was performed for stabilization of a large segmental femoral bone defect by an osteosynthesis plate. Three different numerical modelling techniques for implant fixation were used in this study, i.e. without screw modelling, screws as solid elements as well as screws as structural elements. The latter one offers the possibility to implement automatically generated screws with variable geometry on arbitrary FE models. Structural screws were parametrically generated by a Python script for the automatic generation in the FE-software Abaqus/CAE on both a tetrahedral and a hexahedral meshed femur. Accuracy of the FE models was confirmed by experimental testing using a composite femur with a segmental defect and an identical osteosynthesis plate for primary stabilisation with titanium screws. Both deflection of the femoral head and the gap alteration were measured with an optical measuring system with an accuracy of approximately 3 µm. For both screw modelling techniques a sufficient correlation of approximately 95% between numerical and experimental analysis was found. Furthermore, using structural elements for screw modelling the computational time could be reduced by 85% using hexahedral elements instead of tetrahedral elements for femur meshing. The automatically generated screw modelling offers a realistic simulation of the osteosynthesis fixation with screws in the adjacent

  18. A New Modeling Application of Legacy Data on Ecosystem Stocks and Fluxes in Multiple Land Uses in the Eastern Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nifong, R. L.; Davidson, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    Land-use change and its interaction with climate change remain significant threats to the integrity of Amazonian ecosystems. The responses and feedbacks of biogeochemical cycles to these changes play an important role in determining ecosystem responses to possible future trajectories for land stewardship through effects on rates of secondary forest regrowth, soil emissions of greenhouse gases, inputs of nutrients to groundwater and streamwater, and nutrient management in agroecosystems. The Terrestrial Ecology program at NASA supported numerous studies on these topics in the Amazon and Cerrado regions, both before and during the LBA-ECO project. Here we present analyses of data from this body of work on nutrient cycling in cattle pastures, secondary forests, and mature forests of the Paragominas area, where we are developing a stoichiometric model relating C-N-P interactions during land use change, constrained by multiple observations of ecosystem stocks and fluxes in each land use. Whereas P is conservatively cycled in all land uses, we demonstrate how pyrolyzation of N during pasture formation and management depletes available-N pools, consistent with observations of lower rates of N leaching and trace gas emission and consistent with secondary forest growth responses to experimental N amendments. Although the soils store large stocks of N and P, our parameterization of available forms of these nutrients for steady-state dynamics in the mature forest yield reasonable estimates of net N and P mineralization available for grasses and secondary forest species at rates consistent with observed biomass accumulation and productivity in these modified ecosystems. The multiple data constraints from measurements made by the type of integrated studies supported by the NASA TE program provide an important legacy that continues to support exploration of the functions, vulnerabilities, and resiliencies of these ecosystems.

  19. Digital Learning Material for Student-Directed Model Building in Molecular Biology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aegerter-Wilmsen, Tinri; Coppens, Marjolijn; Janssen, Fred; Hartog, Rob; Bisseling, Ton

    2005-01-01

    The building of models to explain data and make predictions constitutes an important goal in molecular biology research. To give students the opportunity to practice such model building, two digital cases had previously been developed in which students are guided to build a model step by step. In this article, the development and initial…

  20. Introducing Molecular Life Science Students to Model Building Using Computer Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aegerter-Wilmsen, Tinri; Kettenis, Dik; Sessink, Olivier; Hartog, Rob; Bisseling, Ton; Janssen, Fred

    2006-01-01

    Computer simulations can facilitate the building of models of natural phenomena in research, such as in the molecular life sciences. In order to introduce molecular life science students to the use of computer simulations for model building, a digital case was developed in which students build a model of a pattern formation process in…

  1. The dependence of Islamic and conventional stocks: A copula approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have found that Islamic stocks are dependent on conventional stocks and they appear to be more risky. In Asia, particularly in Islamic countries, research on dependence involving Islamic and non-Islamic stock markets is limited. The objective of this study is to investigate the dependence between financial times stock exchange Hijrah Shariah index and conventional stocks (EMAS and KLCI indices). Using the copula approach and a time series model for each marginal distribution function, the copula parameters were estimated. The Elliptical copula was selected to present the dependence structure of each pairing of the Islamic stock and conventional stock. Specifically, the Islamic versus conventional stocks (Shariah-EMAS and Shariah-KLCI) had lower dependence compared to conventional versus conventional stocks (EMAS-KLCI). These findings suggest that the occurrence of shocks in a conventional stock will not have strong impact on the Islamic stock.

  2. Building treatments for urban flood inundation models and implications for predictive skill and modeling efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, Jochen E.; Sanders, Brett F.

    2012-06-01

    Urban areas are vulnerable to major flood damages due to the density of economic and social assets, and there is increasing interest in localized flood intensity predictions to implement flood risk reduction measures. A number of models have been proposed for unsteady flood flows through urban landscapes, but the data needs and complexity are varied and it is not clear that the benefits of added complexity are justified by improved predictive skill. In this study we compare four methods to model unsteady, multi-dimensional flow through urban areas: building resistance (BR), building block (BB), building hole (BH) and building porosity (BP). Each method is applied to the Baldwin Hills, CA urban dam break scenario which offers excellent data for model parameterization, validation and overall performance assessment including observations of flood extent, stream flow, and scour path. Results show that all four methods are capable of high predictive skill for flood extent and stream flow using unique unstructured meshes tailored to exploit the strengths of each approach. However, localized velocities prove more difficult to predict and are sensitive to the building method even in the limit of a very fine grid (ca. 1.5 m resolution). In addition, only those methods that account for building geometries (BB, BH and BP) capture building-scale variability in the velocity field. Tradeoffs between predictive skill, execution time, and set-up time are identified suggesting that the best method for a particular application will depend on available data, computing resources, time constraints, and the specific modeling objectives.

  3. Occupants' satisfaction toward building environmental quality: structural equation modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Kamaruzzaman, Syahrul Nizam; Egbu, C O; Zawawi, Emma Marinie Ahmad; Karim, Saipol Bari Abd; Woon, Chen Jia

    2015-05-01

    It is accepted that occupants who are more satisfied with their workplace's building internal environment are more productive. The main objective of the study was to measure the occupants' level of satisfaction and the perceived importance of the design or refurbishment on office conditions. The study also attempted to determine the factors affecting the occupants' satisfaction with their building or office conditions. Post-occupancy evaluations were conducted using a structured questionnaire developed by the Built Environment Research Group at the University of Manchester, UK. Our questionnaires incorporate 22 factors relating to the internal environment and rate these in terms of "user satisfaction" and "degree of importance." The questions were modified to reflect the specific setting of the study and take into consideration the local conditions and climate in Malaysia. The overall mean satisfaction of the occupants toward their office environment was 5.35. The results were measured by a single item of overall liking of office conditions in general. Occupants were more satisfied with their state of health in the workplace, but they were extremely dissatisfied with the distance away from a window. The factor analysis divided the variables into three groups, namely intrusion, air quality, and office appearance. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was then used to determine which factor had the most significant influence on occupants' satisfaction: appearance. The findings from the study suggest that continuous improvement in aspects of the building's appearance needs to be supported with effective and comprehensive maintenance to sustain the occupants' satisfaction. PMID:25864077

  4. Determinants of residential electricity consumption: Using smart meter data to examine the effect of climate, building characteristics, appliance stock, and occupants' behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Kavousian, A; Rajagopal, R; Fischer, M

    2013-06-15

    We propose a method to examine structural and behavioral determinants of residential electricity consumption, by developing separate models for daily maximum (peak) and minimum (idle) consumption. We apply our method on a data set of 1628 households' electricity consumption. The results show that weather, location and floor area are among the most important determinants of residential electricity consumption. In addition to these variables, number of refrigerators and entertainment devices (e.g., VCRs) are among the most important determinants of daily minimum consumption, while number of occupants and high-consumption appliances such as electric water heaters are the most significant determinants of daily maximum consumption. Installing double-pane windows and energy-efficient lights helped to reduce consumption, as did the energy-conscious use of electric heater. Acknowledging climate change as a motivation to save energy showed correlation with lower electricity consumption. Households with individuals over 55 or between 19 and 35 years old recorded lower electricity consumption, while pet owners showed higher consumption. Contrary to some previous studies, we observed no significant correlation between electricity consumption and income level, home ownership, or building age. Some otherwise energy-efficient features such as energy-efficient appliances, programmable thermostats, and insulation were correlated with slight increase in electricity consumption. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Dynamic modelling and humus balances as tools for estimating and upscaling soil carbon stock changes in temperate cropland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oberholzer, Hans-Rudolf; Holenstein, Hildegard; Mayer, Jochen; Leifeld, Jens

    2010-05-01

    Humus balances are simple mathematical tools used by farmers for assessing the overall performance of their management in terms of soil organic matter changes. They are based on humus reproduction factors which themselves mainly depend on crop rotation, residue management, and amount and type of organic fertilization. Dynamic models, on the other hand, are typically complex and need more detailed input data and are designed to calculate the time course of soil carbon content. In both cases, thorough validation is needed to utilize their potential for estimating carbon stock changes. We compared the results of three humus balance methods SALCA-SQ (Neyroud 1997), VDLUFA method (VDLUFA 2004), Humod (Brock et al. 2008) and the RothC model with measured soil carbon stocks in a long-term experiment in Switzerland for the period 1977-2005 (Fliessbach et al 2007). The field trial comprises various minerally and organically fertilized treatments, the latter differing in the amount and composition of organics applied. All methods were able to distinguish systematic management effects on soil organic carbon (SOC). However, only those SOC trajectories calculated with the dynamic model RothC matched measured stocks quantitatively. For both, humus balances and dynamic modelling the result strongly depended on parameterization of organic fertilizers, i.e. its stability and organic matter content. Therefore, incomplete information on the amount and composition of organic fertilizer and lack of knowledge about its potential for humus reproduction is regarded an uncertainty in both dynamic modelling and humus balance calculation, and seems to be a major drawback for the reliable application of these approaches at the regional scale. Our results stress the need for more detailed and harmonized data bases of organic fertilizer composition and application rates. References Brock C., Hoyer U., Leithold G., Hülsbergen K.-J., 2008. Entwicklung einer praxisanwendbaren Methode der

  6. Planetary Boundary-Layer Modelling and Tall Building Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simiu, Emil; Shi, Liang; Yeo, DongHun

    2016-04-01

    Characteristics of flow in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) strongly affect the design of tall structures. PBL modelling in building codes, based as it is on empirical data from the 1960s and 1970s, differs significantly from contemporary PBL models, which account for both "neutral" flows, and "conventionally neutral" flows. PBL heights estimated in these relatively sophisticated models are typically approximately half as large as those obtained using the classical asymptotic similarity approach, and are one order of magnitude larger than those specified in North American and Japanese building codes. A simple method is proposed for estimating the friction velocity and PBL height as functions of specified surface roughness and geostrophic wind speed. Based on published results, it is tentatively determined that, even at elevations as high as 800 m above the surface, the contribution to the resultant mean flow velocity of the component V normal to the surface stress is negligible and the veering angle is of the order of only 5°. This note aims to encourage dialogue between boundary-layer meteorologists and structural engineers.

  7. Nonspinning numerical relativity waveform surrogates: Building the model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galley, Chad

    2015-04-01

    Simulating binary black hole coalescences involves solving Einstein's equations with large-scale computing resources that can take months to complete for a single numerical solution. This engenders a computationally intractable problem for multiple-query applications related to parameter space exploration, data analysis for gravitational wave detectors like LIGO, and semi-analytical waveform fits. I discuss how reduced order modeling techniques are used to build accurate surrogates that can be evaluated quickly in place of numerically solving Einstein's equations for generating gravitational waveforms of nonspinning binary black hole coalescences. To within error, the surrogate can model all modes available from a numerical simulation including, for example, troublesome modes such as the (3,2) mode and memory modes. A companion talk will cover quantifying the best surrogate model's errors. The results of this work represent a significant advance by making it possible to use numerical relativity waveforms for multiple-query applications.

  8. Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

    2015-12-01

    At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

  9. Indoor PM2.5 exposure in London's domestic stock: Modelling current and future exposures following energy efficient refurbishment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrubsole, C.; Ridley, I.; Biddulph, P.; Milner, J.; Vardoulakis, S.; Ucci, M.; Wilkinson, P.; Chalabi, Z.; Davies, M.

    2012-12-01

    Simulations using CONTAM (a validated multi-zone indoor air quality (IAQ) model) are employed to predict indoor exposure to PM2.5 in London dwellings in both the present day housing stock and the same stock following energy efficient refurbishments to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2050. We modelled interventions that would contribute to the achievement of these targets by reducing the permeability of the dwellings to 3 m3 m-2 h-1 at 50 Pa, combined with the introduction of mechanical ventilation and heat recovery (MVHR) systems. It is assumed that the current mean outdoor PM2.5 concentration of 13 μg m-3 decreased to 9 μg m-3 by 2050 due to emission control policies. Our primary finding was that installation of (assumed perfectly functioning) MVHR systems with permeability reduction are associated with appreciable reductions in PM2.5 exposure in both smoking and non-smoking dwellings. Modelling of the future scenario for non-smoking dwellings show a reduction in annual average indoor exposure to PM2.5 of 18.8 μg m-3 (from 28.4 to 9.6 μg m-3) for a typical household member. Also of interest is that a larger reduction of 42.6 μg m-3 (from 60.5 to 17.9 μg m-3) was shown for members exposed primarily to cooking-related particle emissions in the kitchen (cooks). Reductions in envelope permeability without mechanical ventilation produced increases in indoor PM2.5 concentrations; 5.4 μg m-3 for typical household members and 9.8 μg m-3 for cooks. These estimates of changes in PM2.5 exposure are sensitive to assumptions about occupant behaviour, ventilation system usage and the distributions of input variables (±72% for non-smoking and ±107% in smoking residences). However, if realised, they would result in significant health benefits.

  10. The stock-flow model of spatial data infrastructure development refined by fuzzy logic.

    PubMed

    Abdolmajidi, Ehsan; Harrie, Lars; Mansourian, Ali

    2016-01-01

    The system dynamics technique has been demonstrated to be a proper method by which to model and simulate the development of spatial data infrastructures (SDI). An SDI is a collaborative effort to manage and share spatial data at different political and administrative levels. It is comprised of various dynamically interacting quantitative and qualitative (linguistic) variables. To incorporate linguistic variables and their joint effects in an SDI-development model more effectively, we suggest employing fuzzy logic. Not all fuzzy models are able to model the dynamic behavior of SDIs properly. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate different fuzzy models and their suitability for modeling SDIs. To that end, two inference and two defuzzification methods were used for the fuzzification of the joint effect of two variables in an existing SDI model. The results show that the Average-Average inference and Center of Area defuzzification can better model the dynamics of SDI development. PMID:27006876

  11. Vision-based building energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis using 3D thermography and building information modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ham, Youngjib

    The emerging energy crisis in the building sector and the legislative measures on improving energy efficiency are steering the construction industry towards adopting new energy efficient design concepts and construction methods that decrease the overall energy loads. However, the problems of energy efficiency are not only limited to the design and construction of new buildings. Today, a significant amount of input energy in existing buildings is still being wasted during the operational phase. One primary source of the energy waste is attributed to unnecessary heat flows through building envelopes during hot and cold seasons. This inefficiency increases the operational frequency of heating and cooling systems to keep the desired thermal comfort of building occupants, and ultimately results in excessive energy use. Improving thermal performance of building envelopes can reduce the energy consumption required for space conditioning and in turn provide building occupants with an optimal thermal comfort at a lower energy cost. In this sense, energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis for existing building envelopes are key enablers for improving energy efficiency. Since proper retrofit decisions of existing buildings directly translate into energy cost saving in the future, building practitioners are increasingly interested in methods for reliable identification of potential performance problems so that they can take timely corrective actions. However, sensing what and where energy problems are emerging or are likely to emerge and then analyzing how the problems influence the energy consumption are not trivial tasks. The overarching goal of this dissertation focuses on understanding the gaps in knowledge in methods for building energy diagnostics and retrofit analysis, and filling these gaps by devising a new method for multi-modal visual sensing and analytics using thermography and Building Information Modeling (BIM). First, to address the challenges in scaling and

  12. Improving the ISBACC land surface model simulation of water and carbon fluxes and stocks over the Amazon forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Carrer, D.; Verbeeck, H.; De Weirdt, M.; Bonal, D.

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the ISBACC (Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model (LSM) over the Amazon forest, and propose a revised parameterization of photosynthesis, including new soil water stress and autotrophic respiration (RA) functions. The revised version allows the model to better capture the energy, water and carbon fluxes when compared to five Amazonian flux towers. The performance of ISBACC is slightly site dependent although similar to the widely evaluated LSM ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - version 1187), which is based on different assumptions. Changes made to the autotrophic respiration functions, including a vertical profile of leaf respiration, lead to yearly simulated carbon use efficiency (CUE) and carbon stocks which is consistent with an ecophysiological meta-analysis conducted on three Amazonian sites. Despite these major improvements, ISBACC struggles to capture the apparent seasonality of the carbon fluxes derived from the flux tower estimations. However, there is still no consensus on the seasonality of carbon fluxes over the Amazon, stressing a need for more observations as well as a better understanding of the main drivers of autotrophic respiration.

  13. Modeling National Impacts for the Building America Program

    SciTech Connect

    Coughlin, Katie M.; McNeil, Michael A.

    2006-06-15

    In this paper we present a model to estimate the nationalenergy and economic impacts of the Department of Energy Building Americaprogram. The program goal is to improve energy performance in newresidential construction, by working with builders to design andconstruct energy-efficient homes at minimal cost. The model is anadaptation of the method used to calculate the national energy savingsfor appliance energy efficiency standards. The main difference is thatthe key decision here is not the consumer decision to buy anefficienthouse, but rather the builder decision to offer such a house inthe market. The builder decision is treated by developing a number ofscenarios in which the relative importance of first costs vs. energysavings is varied.

  14. Constraining a coupled erosion and soil organic carbon model using hillslope-scale patterns of carbon stocks and pool composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhengang; Doetterl, Sebastian; Vanclooster, Marnik; Wesemael, Bas; Van Oost, Kristof

    2015-03-01

    A large amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) is laterally redistributed by agricultural erosion. Recent studies have shown that this leads to strong horizontal (i.e., spatial) and vertical (i.e., with soil depth) gradients in SOC stock and C pool distribution in eroding landscapes. However, the mechanisms leading to these gradients in relation to erosion and deposition are still poorly documented. In particular, the effect of the inherent properties of SOC (as controlled by the SOC pool composition) versus the effect of depth-related soil environmental condition (i.e., differences in soil humidity, temperature, aeration, etc.) on the persistence of SOC in eroding landscapes is uncertain. Nonetheless, a detailed understanding of these factors is important to correctly assess landscape-scale soil C turnover and vulnerability to disturbance from human activities. This study utilizes observational data on long-term erosion/deposition rates and C pool composition derived from soil C fractionation experiments along an eroding agricultural hillslope to constrain a coupled erosion-SOC dynamics model. The simulation results show that the data set used can result in a robust parameter estimation of a multipool C model for an eroding landscape with parameter values that are consistent with incubation experiments. A scenario analysis, where we evaluate the contribution of different processes, demonstrates that soil redistribution is essential to explain the observation that depositional locations contain more SOC in subsoils, while the SOC content of the surface layer is similar to those observed along an eroding hillslope. The spatial variability of plant production could explain some of the observed variability in SOC content, but our results suggest that the spatial variability of SOC pool composition is mainly related to soil redistribution. Finally, we suggest that environmental factors may play a more important role than the inherent properties of SOC in determining the

  15. Building Models from the Bottom Up: The HOBBES Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medellin-Azuara, J.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lund, J. R.; Chu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Water problems are often bigger than technical and data challenges associated in representing a water system using a model. Controversy and complexity is inherent when water is to be allocated among different uses making difficult to maintain coherent and productive discussions on addressing water problems. Quantification of a water supply system through models has proven to be helpful to improve understanding, explore and develop adaptable solutions to water problems. However, models often become too large and complex and become hostages of endless discussions of the assumptions, their algorithms and their limitations. Data management organization and documentation keep model flexible and useful over time. The UC Davis HOBBES project is a new approach, building models from the bottom up. Reversing the traditional model development, where data are arranged around a model algorithm, in Hobbes the data structure, organization and documentation are established first, followed by application of simulation or optimization modeling algorithms for a particular problem at hand. The HOBBES project establishes standards for storing, documenting and sharing datasets on California water system. This allows models to be developed and modified more easily and transparently, with greater comparability. Elements in the database have a spatial definition and can aggregate several infrastructural elements into detailed to coarse representations of the water system. Elements in the database represent reservoirs, groundwater basins, pumping stations, hydropower and water treatment facilities, demand areas and conveyance infrastructure statewide. These elements also host time series, economic and other information from hydrologic, economic, climate and other models. This presentation provides an overview of the project HOBBES project, its applications and prospects for California and elsewhere. The HOBBES Project

  16. A MODEL BUILDING CODE ARTICLE ON FALLOUT SHELTERS WITH RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INCLUSION OF REQUIREMENTS FOR FALLOUT SHELTER CONSTRUCTION IN FOUR NATIONAL MODEL BUILDING CODES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Inst. of Architects, Washington, DC.

    A MODEL BUILDING CODE FOR FALLOUT SHELTERS WAS DRAWN UP FOR INCLUSION IN FOUR NATIONAL MODEL BUILDING CODES. DISCUSSION IS GIVEN OF FALLOUT SHELTERS WITH RESPECT TO--(1) NUCLEAR RADIATION, (2) NATIONAL POLICIES, AND (3) COMMUNITY PLANNING. FALLOUT SHELTER REQUIREMENTS FOR SHIELDING, SPACE, VENTILATION, CONSTRUCTION, AND SERVICES SUCH AS ELECTRICAL…

  17. 1.25 GHz path loss prediction models for multifloored buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isnin, Ismail Fauzi; Tomlinson, Martin; Ahmed, Mohammed Zaki; Ambroze, Marcel

    2009-05-01

    In this paper, parameter statistics of path loss prediction models are presented for 1.25 GHz within multifloored buildings. Parameters are extracted from analyzed data which was collected from measurements within three buildings. Buildings were chosen with specific considerations such as building footprint shapes and internal design.For the consideration of building footprint, a building having rectangular footprint and a building having square footprint were chosen. Because of its internal design, the third building was chosen to represent buildings with an atrium. Results show that, buildings with square footprint caused higher path loss compared to rectangular footprint buildings. It is also found that, buildings with an atrium have the lowest path loss exponent and lowest floor attenuation factor among other considered buildings. A model for path loss prediction is proposed for multifloor buildings with its internal design allows lineof- sight (LOS) and non line-of-sight (NLOS), even though transmitter and receiver are not on the same floor. The model takes into consideration the factor of transmission type, whether it is LOS or NLOS. The proposed model has reduced the standard deviation of error prediction, which indicates better prediction accuracy is achieved.

  18. Diffusion and Aggregation in an Agent Based Model of Stock Market Fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castiglione, Filippo

    We describe a new model to simulate the dynamic interactions between market price and the decisions of two different kind of traders. They possess spatial mobility allowing to group together to form coalitions. Each coalition follows a strategy chosen from a proportional voting ``dominated'' by a leader's decision. The interplay of both kind of agents gives rise to complex price dynamics that is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial time series. The present model incorporates many features of other known models and is meant to be the first step toward the construction of an agent-based model that uses more realistic markets rules, strategies, and information structures.

  19. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  20. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  1. BUILDING ROBUST APPEARANCE MODELS USING ON-LINE FEATURE SELECTION

    SciTech Connect

    PORTER, REID B.; LOVELAND, ROHAN; ROSTEN, ED

    2007-01-29

    In many tracking applications, adapting the target appearance model over time can improve performance. This approach is most popular in high frame rate video applications where latent variables, related to the objects appearance (e.g., orientation and pose), vary slowly from one frame to the next. In these cases the appearance model and the tracking system are tightly integrated, and latent variables are often included as part of the tracking system's dynamic model. In this paper we describe our efforts to track cars in low frame rate data (1 frame/second) acquired from a highly unstable airborne platform. Due to the low frame rate, and poor image quality, the appearance of a particular vehicle varies greatly from one frame to the next. This leads us to a different problem: how can we build the best appearance model from all instances of a vehicle we have seen so far. The best appearance model should maximize the future performance of the tracking system, and maximize the chances of reacquiring the vehicle once it leaves the field of view. We propose an online feature selection approach to this problem and investigate the performance and computational trade-offs with a real-world dataset.

  2. Evaluation of Model Recognition for Grammar-Based Automatic 3d Building Model Reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Qian; Helmholz, Petra; Belton, David

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, 3D city models are in high demand by many public and private organisations, and the steadily growing capacity in both quality and quantity are increasing demand. The quality evaluation of these 3D models is a relevant issue both from the scientific and practical points of view. In this paper, we present a method for the quality evaluation of 3D building models which are reconstructed automatically from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data based on an attributed building grammar. The entire evaluation process has been performed in all the three dimensions in terms of completeness and correctness of the reconstruction. Six quality measures are introduced to apply on four datasets of reconstructed building models in order to describe the quality of the automatic reconstruction, and also are assessed on their validity from the evaluation point of view.

  3. Model Building Strategies for Predicting Multiple Landslide Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardo, L.; Cama, M.; Märker, M.; Parisi, L.; Rotigliano, E.

    2013-12-01

    A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribution. To test the method we exploit the disaster that occurred in the Messina area (southern Italy) on the 1st of October 2009 where, following a 250mm/8hours storm, approximately 2000 debris flow/debris avalanches landslides in an area of 21km2 triggered, killing thirty-seven people, injuring more than one hundred, and causing 0.5M euro worth of structural damage. The debris flows and debris avalanches phenomena involved the thin weathered mantle of the Varisican low to high grade metamorphic rocks that outcrop in the eastern slopes of the Peloritan Belt. Two 10km2 wide stream catchments, which are located inside the storm core area were exploited: susceptibility models trained in the Briga catchment were tested when exported to predict the landslides distribution in the Giampilieri catchment. The prediction performance (based on goodness of fit, prediction skill, accuracy and precision assessment) of the exported model was then compared with that of a model prepared in the Giampilieri catchment exploiting its landslide inventory. The results demonstrate that the landslide scenario observed in the Giampilieri catchment can be predicted with the same high performance without knowing its landslide distribution: we obtained in fact a very poor decrease in predictive performance when

  4. BIM (Building Information Modeling) and TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christensen, Douglas K.

    2009-01-01

    There are some words in the building industry that seem to be clear and understandable to say, yet they need some help in understanding the depth of the meaning. When the term maintenance is talked about there seems to be some agreement that it does not mean building a new building. Maintenance as a term covers many areas and if not clarified…

  5. Building a sustainable Academic Health Department: the South Carolina model.

    PubMed

    Smith, Lillian Upton; Waddell, Lisa; Kyle, Joseph; Hand, Gregory A

    2014-01-01

    Given the limited resources available to public health, it is critical that university programs complement the development needs of agencies. Unfortunately, academic and practice public health entities have long been challenged in building sustainable collaborations that support practice-based research, teaching, and service. The academic health department concept offers a promising solution. In South Carolina, the partners started their academic health department program with a small grant that expanded into a dynamic infrastructure that supports innovative professional exchange and development programs. This article provides a background and describes the key elements of the South Carolina model: joint leadership, a multicomponent memorandum of agreement, and a shared professional development mission. The combination of these elements allows the partners to leverage resources and deftly respond to challenges and opportunities, ultimately fostering the sustainability of the collaboration. PMID:24667204

  6. Building Information Modelling for Cultural Heritage: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Logothetis, S.; Delinasiou, A.; Stylianidis, E.

    2015-08-01

    We discuss the evolution and state-of-the-art of the use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the field of culture heritage documentation. BIM is a hot theme involving different characteristics including principles, technology, even privacy rights for the cultural heritage objects. Modern documentation needs identified the potential of BIM in the recent years. Many architects, archaeologists, conservationists, engineers regard BIM as a disruptive force, changing the way professionals can document and manage a cultural heritage structure. The latest years, there are many developments in the BIM field while the developed technology and methods challenged the cultural heritage community in the documentation framework. In this review article, following a brief historic background for the BIM, we review the recent developments focusing in the cultural heritage documentation perspective.

  7. Interacting gaps model, dynamics of order book, and stock-market fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svorenčík, A.; Slanina, F.

    2007-06-01

    Inspired by order-book models of financial fluctuations, we investigate the Interacting gaps model, which is the schematic one-dimensional system mimicking the order-book dynamics. We find by simulations the power-law tail in return distribution, power-law decay of volatility autocorrelation with exponent 0.5 and Hurst exponent close to 1/2. Surprisingly, when we make a mean-field approximation, i.e. replace the one-dimensional system by effectively infinite-dimensional one, we obtain analytically the return exponent 5/2, in perfect accord with one-dimensional simulations.

  8. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano

    2014-05-01

    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  9. Building Simulation Modelers are we big-data ready?

    SciTech Connect

    Sanyal, Jibonananda; New, Joshua Ryan

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in computing and sensor technologies have pushed the amount of data we collect or generate to limits previously unheard of. Sub-minute resolution data from dozens of channels is becoming increasingly common and is expected to increase with the prevalence of non-intrusive load monitoring. Experts are running larger building simulation experiments and are faced with an increasingly complex data set to analyze and derive meaningful insight. This paper focuses on the data management challenges that building modeling experts may face in data collected from a large array of sensors, or generated from running a large number of building energy/performance simulations. The paper highlights the technical difficulties that were encountered and overcome in order to run 3.5 million EnergyPlus simulations on supercomputers and generating over 200 TBs of simulation output. This extreme case involved development of technologies and insights that will be beneficial to modelers in the immediate future. The paper discusses different database technologies (including relational databases, columnar storage, and schema-less Hadoop) in order to contrast the advantages and disadvantages of employing each for storage of EnergyPlus output. Scalability, analysis requirements, and the adaptability of these database technologies are discussed. Additionally, unique attributes of EnergyPlus output are highlighted which make data-entry non-trivial for multiple simulations. Practical experience regarding cost-effective strategies for big-data storage is provided. The paper also discusses network performance issues when transferring large amounts of data across a network to different computing devices. Practical issues involving lag, bandwidth, and methods for synchronizing or transferring logical portions of the data are presented. A cornerstone of big-data is its use for analytics; data is useless unless information can be meaningfully derived from it. In addition to technical

  10. Modeling the above and below ground carbon and nitrogen stocks in northern high latitude terrestrial ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ElMasri, B.; Jain, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause warming in the northern high latitudes, but it is still uncertain what the respond of the northern high latitudes ecosystem will be to such warming. One of the biggest scientific questions is to determine whether northern high latitude ecosystem are or will act as a terrestrial carbon sink or source. Therefore, it is essential to understand and quantify the biogeochemical cycle of the northern high latitude ecosystems in order to predict their respond to climate change. Using a land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) with its coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle, we provide a detail quantification of the carbon and nitrogen in the vegetation pools and the soil carbon for the northern high latitude ecosystems. We focus on soil carbon and vegetation carbon and nitrogen, though we provide results for gross primary production (GPP), autotrophic respiration (Ra), net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh). In addition, we examine the effect of nitrogen limitation on the carbon fluxes and soil carbon. We present the results for several flux tower sites representative of the tundra and the boreal ecosystems as well as for the northern high latitude region. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of below and above ground carbon and nitrogen pools in the northern high latitude and the model calibrated parameters can be used to improve the results of other land surface models.

  11. “Price-Quakes” Shaking the World's Stock Exchanges

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, Jørgen Vitting; Nowak, Andrzej; Rotundo, Giulia; Parrott, Lael; Martinez, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    Background Systemic risk has received much more awareness after the excessive risk taking by major financial instituations pushed the world's financial system into what many considered a state of near systemic failure in 2008. The IMF for example in its yearly 2009 Global Financial Stability Report acknowledged the lack of proper tools and research on the topic. Understanding how disruptions can propagate across financial markets is therefore of utmost importance. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we use empirical data to show that the world's markets have a non-linear threshold response to events, consistent with the hypothesis that traders exhibit change blindness. Change blindness is the tendency of humans to ignore small changes and to react disproportionately to large events. As we show, this may be responsible for generating cascading events—pricequakes—in the world's markets. We propose a network model of the world's stock exchanges that predicts how an individual stock exchange should be priced in terms of the performance of the global market of exchanges, but with change blindness included in the pricing. The model has a direct correspondence to models of earth tectonic plate movements developed in physics to describe the slip-stick movement of blocks linked via spring forces. Conclusions/Significance We have shown how the price dynamics of the world's stock exchanges follows a dynamics of build-up and release of stress, similar to earthquakes. The nonlinear response allows us to classify price movements of a given stock index as either being generated internally, due to specific economic news for the country in question, or externally, by the ensemble of the world's stock exchanges reacting together like a complex system. The model may provide new insight into the origins and thereby also prevent systemic risks in the global financial network. PMID:22073168

  12. Lidar based vegetation height models to quantify carbon stocks in Galveston saltmarshes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulawardhana, R. W.; Popescu, S. C.; Feagin, R. A.

    2012-12-01

    Concern over global climate change has stimulated much interest in identifying existing and potential carbon sinks. Wetland ecosystems are highly recognized for their high productivity and thus as major terrestrial carbon (C) sinks. The rapid decline in the extent and health of these wetland ecosystems has created a need for non-destructive methods for the study of their C dynamics. However, these biomass estimates are mostly based on vegetation structural properties, particularly based on vegetation height models. Hence, for better quantification of vegetation biomass and C estimates, the accuracy of vegetation height models derived using lidar data is of paramount importance. Yet, unlike in woody vegetation dominated ecosystems, the use of lidar in saltmarshes is limited due to several reasons: 1) relatively dense vegetation cover limits laser penetration affecting the accuracy of terrain and thus vegetation height estimates; and 2) relatively shorter vegetation demands high point density data with high vertical accuracy to capture relatively smaller differences between terrain and vegetation canopy surfaces. Thus, the use of lidar data to characterize saltmarsh vegetation community demands appropriate methodologies. Our overall objective in this study was to develop a methodology for deriving salt marsh vegetation height models using airborne lidar data. More specific objectives involved: (1) understanding the interaction between discrete-return airborne lidar data and marsh vegetation; (2) finding appropriate grid sizes for deriving terrain and vegetation height models; and (3) analyze lidar-derived surface accuracies by comparing estimates to field measurements. In this study, we used 1m point spacing airborne lidar data from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) program to derive vegetation height models (VHM) for Spartina alterniflora saltmarshes in Galveston, Texas. We first derived digital terrain models (DEMs) and verified their vertical accuracy

  13. Verification of 3d Building Models Using Mutual Information in Airborne Oblique Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyaruhuma, A. P.; Gerke, M.; Vosselman, G.

    2012-07-01

    This paper describes a method for automatic verification of 3D building models using airborne oblique images. The problem being tackled is identifying buildings that are demolished or changed since the models were constructed or identifying wrong models using the images. The models verified are of CityGML LOD2 or higher since their edges are expected to coincide with actual building edges. The verification approach is based on information theory. Corresponding variables between building models and oblique images are used for deriving mutual information for individual edges, faces or whole buildings, and combined for all perspective images available for the building. The wireframe model edges are projected to images and verified using low level image features - the image pixel gradient directions. A building part is only checked against images in which it may be visible. The method has been tested with models constructed using laser points against Pictometry images that are available for most cities of Europe and may be publically viewed in the so called Birds Eye view of the Microsoft Bing Maps. Results are that nearly all buildings are correctly categorised as existing or demolished. Because we now concentrate only on roofs we also used the method to test and compare results from nadir images. This comparison made clear that especially height errors in models can be more reliably detected in oblique images because of the tilted view. Besides overall building verification, results per individual edges can be used for improving the 3D building models.

  14. Building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow: a model and its application to Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spence, Robin J. S.; Baxter, Peter J.; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2004-05-01

    Pyroclastic flows clearly present a serious threat to life for the inhabitants of settlements on the slopes of volcanoes with a history of explosive eruptions; but it is increasingly realised that buildings can provide a measure of protection to occupants trapped by such flows. One important example is Vesuvius, whose eruption history includes many events which were lethal for the inhabitants of the neighbouring Vesuvian villages. Recent computational fluid dynamics computer modelling for Vesuvius [Todesco et al., Bull. Volcanol. 64 (2002) 155-177] has enabled a realistic picture of an explosive eruption to be modelled, tracing the time-dependent development of the physical parameters of a simulated flow at a large three-dimensional mesh of points, based on assumed conditions of temperature, mass-flow rate and particle size distribution at the vent. The output includes mapping of temperature, mixture density and mixture velocity over the whole adjacent terrain. But to date this information has not been used to assess the impacts of such flows on buildings and their occupants. In the project reported in this paper, estimates of the near-ground flow parameters were used to assess the impact of a particular simulated pyroclastic flow (modelled roughly on the 1631 eruption) on the buildings and population in four of the Vesuvian villages considered most at risk. The study had five components. First, a survey of buildings and the urban environment was conducted to identify the incidence of characteristics and elements likely to affect human vulnerability, and to classify the building stock. The survey emphasised particularly the number, location and type of openings characteristic of the major classes of the local building stock. In the second part of the study, this survey formed the basis for estimates of the probable impact of the pyroclastic flow on the envelope and internal air conditions of typical buildings. In the third part, a number of distinct ways in which

  15. Habitat Suitability Index Models and Instream Flow Suitability Curves: Inland Stocks of Striped Bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crance, Johnie H.

    1984-01-01

    The Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models and instream flow Suitability Index (SI) presented in this publication aid in identifying important variables that determine the quality of striped bass habitat. Facts, ideas, and opinions obtained from published and unpublished reports, a Delphi panel of 18 striped bass experts/authorities, and the Striped Bass Committee, Southern Division, American Fisheries Society, are synthesized and presented in a format that can be used for habitat impact assessment and development of management alternatives.

  16. Contact metamorphism surrounding the Alta stock: Finite element model simulation of heat- and {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O mass-transport during prograde metamorphism

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, S.J.; Bowman, J.R.; Forster, C.B.

    1997-01-01

    Results of calcite-dolomite geothermometry and oxygen isotope studies of marbles in the southern portion of the contact aureole surrounding the Alta stock (Utah) provide evidence for extensive hydrothermal metamorphism in this part of the aureole. Simulation of these two independent data sets with two-dimensional, finite element fluid flow and heat transport models constrains the pattern of fluid flow, minimum permeability, and the permeability structure in this part of the aureole. Model results demonstrate that intrusion of the stock into a homogeneous, isotropic permeability medium yields peak metamorphic temperatures significantly lower than those measured in the marbles and significant {sup 18}O depletions both above and below the Alta-Grizzly thrust system. The latter contradicts the observations in the south aureole that {sup 18}O depletions in the marbles are restricted to marbles below the Alta-Grizzly thrust; dolomitic marbles above the thrust retain original sedimentary values up to the intrusive contact. Models with horizontal permeability barriers above the Alta-Grizzly thrust and extending over the top of the Alta stock are capable of reproducing the observed thermal and {delta}{sup 18}O profiles in the southern aureole. The presence of such horizontal barriers reduces the predominantly vertical fluid flow and heat transfer that would occur in a homogeneous and isotropic permeability medium, forcing fluid flow and heat transfer laterally away from the upper flanks of the stock. Such horizontal flow patterns are necessary to produce significant {sup 18}O depletion above the thrust, and to provide the necessary lateral heat transfer to duplicate the observed temperature profile. Best fit model results to the observed thermal and {delta}{sup 18}O profiles provide several new insights into the dynamics of fluid circulation and hydrogeologic characteristics of the southern Alta aureole during prograde metamorphism.

  17. Resolving model parameter values from carbon and nitrogen stock measurements in a wide range of tropical mature forests using nonlinear inversion and regression trees

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liu, S.; Anderson, P.; Zhou, G.; Kauffman, B.; Hughes, F.; Schimel, D.; Watson, Vicente; Tosi, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    Objectively assessing the performance of a model and deriving model parameter values from observations are critical and challenging in landscape to regional modeling. In this paper, we applied a nonlinear inversion technique to calibrate the ecosystem model CENTURY against carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stock measurements collected from 39 mature tropical forest sites in seven life zones in Costa Rica. Net primary productivity from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), C and N stocks in aboveground live biomass, litter, coarse woody debris (CWD), and in soils were used to calibrate the model. To investigate the resolution of available observations on the number of adjustable parameters, inversion was performed using nine setups of adjustable parameters. Statistics including observation sensitivity, parameter correlation coefficient, parameter sensitivity, and parameter confidence limits were used to evaluate the information content of observations, resolution of model parameters, and overall model performance. Results indicated that soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen content, and total aboveground biomass carbon had the highest information contents, while measurements of carbon in litter and nitrogen in CWD contributed little to the parameter estimation processes. The available information could resolve the values of 2-4 parameters. Adjusting just one parameter resulted in under-fitting and unacceptable model performance, while adjusting five parameters simultaneously led to over-fitting. Results further indicated that the MODIS NPP values were compressed as compared with the spatial variability of net primary production (NPP) values inferred from inverse modeling. Using inverse modeling to infer NPP and other sensitive model parameters from C and N stock observations provides an opportunity to utilize data collected by national to regional forest inventory systems to reduce the uncertainties in the carbon cycle and generate valuable

  18. Simulation and validation of greenhouse gas emissions and SOC stock changes in arable land using the ECOSSE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, M. I.; Richards, M.; Osborne, B.; Williams, M.; Müller, C.

    2013-12-01

    Model simulations of C and N dynamics, based on country-specific agricultural and environmental conditions, can provide information for compiling national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, as well as insights into potential mitigation options. A multi-pool dynamic model, ‘ECOSSE’ (v5 modified), was used to simulate coupled GHGs and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes. It was run for an equivalent time frame of 8 years with inputs from conventionally-tilled arable land cropped with spring barley receiving N fertilizer as calcium ammonium nitrate at 135-159 kg N ha-1 and crop residues (3 t ha-1 yr-1). The simulated daily N2O fluxes were consistent with the measured values, with R2 of 0.33 (p < 0.05) and the total error and bias differences were within 95% confidence levels. The measured seasonal N2O losses were 0.39-0.60% of the N applied, with a modelled estimate of 0.23-0.41%. In contrast, the measured annual N2O loss (integrated) was 0.35% and the corresponding simulated value of 0.45% increased to 0.59% when the sum of the daily fluxes was taken into account. This indicates intermittent gas samplings may miss the peak fluxes. On an 8-year average the modelled N2O emission factor (EF) was 0.53 ± 0.03%. The model successfully predicted the daily heterotrophic respiration (RH), with an R2 of 0.45 (p < 0.05) and the total error and bias differences were within the 95% confidence intervals. The simulated and measured total RH (3149 versus 3072 kg C ha-1 yr-1) was within the cropland average values previously reported. The total measured CH4 fluxes indicated that the unfertilized treatments were a small source (-2.29 g C ha-1 yr-1), whilst the fertilized treatments were a sink (+3.64). In contrast, the simulated values suggested a sink (26.61-31.37 g C ha-1 yr-1), demonstrating fertilizer-induced decreases in CH4 oxidation. On average, based on the simulated SOC content a loss of 516 kg C ha-1 yr-1 was indicated, which is within the uncertainty range for

  19. A Model for Sustainable Building Energy Efficiency Retrofit (BEER) Using Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) Mechanism for Hotel Buildings in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Pengpeng

    Hotel building is one of the high-energy-consuming building types, and retrofitting hotel buildings is an untapped solution to help cut carbon emissions contributing towards sustainable development. Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) has been promulgated as a market mechanism for the delivery of energy efficiency projects. EPC mechanism has been introduced into China relatively recently, and it has not been implemented successfully in building energy efficiency retrofit projects. The aim of this research is to develop a model for achieving the sustainability of Building Energy Efficiency Retrofit (BEER) in hotel buildings under the Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) mechanism. The objectives include: • To identify a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for measuring the sustainability of BEER in hotel buildings; • To identify Critical Success Factors (CSFs) under EPC mechanism that have a strong correlation with sustainable BEER project; • To develop a model explaining the relationships between the CSFs and the sustainability performance of BEER in hotel building. Literature reviews revealed the essence of sustainable BEER and EPC, which help to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing sustainable BEER under EPC mechanism in hotel buildings. 11 potential KPIs for sustainable BEER and 28 success factors of EPC were selected based on the developed framework. A questionnaire survey was conducted to ascertain the importance of selected performance indicators and success factors. Fuzzy set theory was adopted in identifying the KPIs. Six KPIs were identified from the 11 selected performance indicators. Through a questionnaire survey, out of the 28 success factors, 21 Critical Success Factors (CSFs) were also indentified. Using the factor analysis technique, the 21 identified CSFs in this study were grouped into six clusters to help explain project success of sustainable BEER. Finally, AHP/ANP approach was used in this research to develop a model to

  20. Assessment of methods for creating a national building statistics database for atmospheric dispersion modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Velugubantla, S. P.; Burian, S. J.; Brown, M. J.; McKinnon, A. T.; McPherson, T. N.; Han, W. S.

    2004-01-01

    Mesoscale meteorological codes and transport and dispersion models are increasingly being applied in urban areas. Representing urban terrain characteristics in these models is critical for accurate predictions of air flow, heating and cooling, and airborne contaminant concentrations in cities. A key component of urban terrain characterization is the description of building morphology (e.g., height, plan area, frontal area) and derived properties (e.g., roughness length). Methods to determine building morphological statistics range from manual field surveys to automated processing of digital building databases. In order to improve the quality and consistency of mesoscale meteorological and atmospheric dispersion modeling, a national dataset of building morphological statistics is needed. Currently, due to the expense and logistics of conducting detailed field surveys, building statistics have been derived for only small sections of a few cities. In most other cities, modeling projects rely on building statistics estimated using intuition and best guesses. There has been increasing emphasis in recent years to derive building statistics using digital building data or other data sources as a proxy for those data. Although there is a current expansion in public and private sector development of digital building data, at present there is insufficient data to derive a national building statistics database using automated analysis tools. Too many cities lack digital data on building footprints and heights and many of the cities having such data do so for only small areas. Due to the lack of sufficient digital building data, other datasets are used to estimate building statistics. Land use often serves as means to provide building statistics for a model domain, but the strength and consistency of the relationship between land use and building morphology is largely uncertain. In this paper, we investigate whether building statistics can be correlated to the underlying land

  1. Building a training image with Digital Outcrop Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickel, A.; Frechette, J. D.; Comunian, A.; Weissmann, G. S.

    2015-12-01

    Current standard geostatistical approaches to characterizing subsurface heterogeneity may not capture realistic facies geometries and fluid flow paths. Multiple-point statistics (MPS) has shown promise in portraying complex geometries realistically; however, realizations are limited by the reliability of the model of heterogeneity upon which MPS relies, that is the Training Image (TI). Attempting to increase realism captured in TIs, a quantitative outcrop analog based approach utilizing terrestrial lidar and high-resolution, calibrated digital photography is combined with lithofacies analysis to produce TIs. Terrestrial lidar scans and high-resolution digital imagery were acquired of a Westwater Canyon Member, Morrison Formation outcrop in Ojito Wilderness, New Mexico, USA. The resulting point cloud was used to develop a cm scale mesh. Digital images of the outcrop were processed through a combination of photogrammetric techniques and manual digitizing to delineate different facies and sedimentary structures. The classified images were projected onto the high-resolution mesh creating a physically plausible Digital Outcrop Model (DOM), portions of which were used to build MPS TIs. The resulting MPS realization appears to capture realistic geometries of the deposit and empirically honors facies distributions.

  2. Characterization of P status in forest soils: stocks, fluxes and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achat, D. L.; Morel, C.; Bakker, M.; Augusto, L.; Gallet-Budynek, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Jonard, M.

    2010-12-01

    Phosphorus (P) is a critical limiting factor of plant growth and production in many ecosystems, which often require to be fertilized. However, there is an increasing concern regarding appropriate local and global management of phosphorus resources, since the existing finite phosphate reserves are rapidly being depleted. This implies to understand what processes (biological, physico-chemical) are governing soil P availability in agroecosystems, and in particular in forests, which will be increasingly managed for their C-sink potential in the future. We characterized the P status in forest soils of the largest managed pine forest in Europe (Landes of Gascogne, southwest of France) using isotopic and extraction methods, as well as modelling approaches. Total P concentration in topsoils were extremely low, ranging from 7 to 195 mg Pkg-1. The concentration of phosphate ions in solution decreased with depth and was related to the Al and Fe oxide content, which controlled the diffusion of P from the soil solid phase to the solution. The gross amount of diffusive P in one week as determined by 32P isotopic dilution in batch experiments was low, ranging from 0.2 to 52 mg P kg-1 in the topsoil layer, and could be predicted by pedotransfer functions built on the Al and Fe oxide and soil organic matter contents. Organic P represented 80% of total P in litter and 60% in the surface mineral soil layer, suggesting a higher contribution of biological processes to soil P cycling. Biological mineralization of organic P was quantified using a long-term incubation study (154 days) of a low-sorbing soil labelled with 33P, associated with a batch experiment with 32P labelled soil: gross mineralization of dead soil organic matter and diffusive phosphate P were low (<1 mg kg-1 ) compared to the remineralization of microbial P (14mg kg-1). A modelling approach combined to these isotopic measurements showed that 80 % of microbial P turned over very quickly (5-9 days), while 20% turned over

  3. The road plan model: Information model for planning road building activities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Azinhal, Rafaela K.; Moura-Pires, Fernando

    1994-01-01

    The general building contractor is presented with an information model as an approach for deriving a high-level work plan of construction activities applied to road building. Road construction activities are represented in a Road Plan Model (RPM), which is modeled in the ISO standard STEP/EXPRESS and adopts various concepts from the GARM notation. The integration with the preceding road design stage and the succeeding phase of resource scheduling is discussed within the framework of a Road Construction Model. Construction knowledge is applied to the road design and the terrain model of the surrounding road infrastructure for the instantiation of the RPM. Issues regarding the implementation of a road planner application supporting the RPM are discussed.

  4. Combining measurements and modelling to quantify the contribution of atmospheric fallout, local industry and road traffic to PAH stocks in contrasting catchments.

    PubMed

    Gateuille, David; Evrard, Olivier; Lefevre, Irène; Moreau-Guigon, Elodie; Alliot, Fabrice; Chevreuil, Marc; Mouchel, Jean-Marie

    2014-06-01

    Various sources supply PAHs that accumulate in soils. The methodology we developed provided an evaluation of the contribution of local sources (road traffic, local industries) versus remote sources (long range atmospheric transport, fallout and gaseous exchanges) to PAH stocks in two contrasting subcatchments (46-614 km²) of the Seine River basin (France). Soil samples (n = 336) were analysed to investigate the spatial pattern of soil contamination across the catchments and an original combination with radionuclide measurements provided new insights into the evolution of the contamination with depth. Relationships between PAH concentrations and the distance to the potential sources were modelled. Despite both subcatchments are mainly rural, roadside areas appeared to concentrate 20% of the contamination inside the catchment while a local industry was found to be responsible for up to 30% of the stocks. Those results have important implications for understanding and controlling PAH contamination in rural areas of early-industrialized regions. PMID:24662001

  5. A comprehensive framework of building model reconstruction from airborne LiDAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Y.; Wang, C.; Xi, X. H.; Zhang, W. M.

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive framework of reconstructing 3D building models from airborne LiDAR data, which involves building extraction, roof segmentation and model generation. Firstly, building points are extracted from LiDAR point clouds by removing walls, trees, ground and noises. Walls and trees are identified by the normal and multi-return features respectively and then ground and noise are detected by the region growing algorithm which aims at extracting smooth surfaces. Then the connected component analysis is performed to extract building points. Secondly, once the building points are acquired, building roofs are separated by the region growing algorithm which employs the normal vector and curvature of points to detect planar clusters. Finally, by combining regular building outlines obtained from building points and roof intersections acquired from the roof segmentation results, 3D building models with high accuracy are derived. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to correctly obtain building points and reconstruct 3D building models with high accuracy.

  6. VOC sink behaviour on building materials--model evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The event of 11 September 2001 underscored the need to study the vulnerability of buildings to weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including chemical, biological, physical, and radiological agents. Should these agents be released inside a building, they would interact with interio...

  7. Integration of a Generalised Building Model Into the Pose Estimation of Uas Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, J.; Rottensteiner, F.; Heipke, C.

    2016-06-01

    A hybrid bundle adjustment is presented that allows for the integration of a generalised building model into the pose estimation of image sequences. These images are captured by an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) equipped with a camera flying in between the buildings. The relation between the building model and the images is described by distances between the object coordinates of the tie points and building model planes. Relations are found by a simple 3D distance criterion and are modelled as fictitious observations in a Gauss-Markov adjustment. The coordinates of model vertices are part of the adjustment as directly observed unknowns which allows for changes in the model. Results of first experiments using a synthetic and a real image sequence demonstrate improvements of the image orientation in comparison to an adjustment without the building model, but also reveal limitations of the current state of the method.

  8. Building Blocks for Building Skills: An Inventory of Adult Learning Models and Innovations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klein-Collins, Rebecca

    2006-01-01

    The skills of the workforce are an important contributor to the economic vitality of any region, leading economic developers to consider how to connect their efforts to workforce development and help to build the skills of adults generally. This report, produced for the U.S. Department of Labor's Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic…

  9. Implementation of building information modeling in Malaysian construction industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Memon, Aftab Hameed; Rahman, Ismail Abdul; Harman, Nur Melly Edora

    2014-10-01

    This study has assessed the implementation level of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in the construction industry of Malaysia. It also investigated several computer software packages facilitating BIM and challenges affecting its implementation. Data collection for this study was carried out using questionnaire survey among the construction practitioners. 95 completed forms of questionnaire received against 150 distributed questionnaire sets from consultant, contractor and client organizations were analyzed statistically. Analysis findings indicated that the level of implementation of BIM in the construction industry of Malaysia is very low. Average index method employed to assess the effectiveness of various software packages of BIM highlighted that Bentley construction, AutoCAD and ArchiCAD are three most popular and effective software packages. Major challenges to BIM implementation are it requires enhanced collaboration, add work to a designer, interoperability and needs enhanced collaboration. For improving the level of implementing BIM in Malaysian industry, it is recommended that a flexible training program of BIM for all practitioners must be created.

  10. [METHODS OF MODELING TEMPERATURE REGIMES IN TESTS OF POLYMER CONTAINING BUILDING MATERIALS AND FURNITURE FOR HOMES AND PUBLIC BUILDINGS].

    PubMed

    Dubova, G P; Chubirko, M I; Obolonskiy, M F; Khrapov, R Yu; Kamenev, V I

    2015-01-01

    This article is devoted to the modeling of temperature conditions in performance of research of polymer containing building materials and furniture. The authors draw attention to the different conditions of modeling used in the existing guidance documents, and provide a unified approach to this problem, namely in the performance of the study to use the temperature regime, which corresponds to the maximum value of the optimum temperature range for residential and industrial premises. PMID:27029165

  11. Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

    2014-09-01

    Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

  12. APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR LONG-TERM DISASTER PREVENTION PLANNING

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segi, Shunsuke; Ishikura, Tomoki; Yokomatsu, Muneta

    This paper builds a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model which deals with investment to disaster prevention infrastructure stock. The nature of disaster such as uncertainty, magnitude of damage and long run effects of damage are explicitly modeled. The model can derive optimal policy with regard to investment to productive capital stock and disaster prevention infrastructure stock. Furthermore, the numerical simulations give some interesting implications about the relationship between optimal investment policy, magnitude of disaster, level of economic development and disaster prevention technology.

  13. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  14. Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  15. Building Restoration Operations Optimization Model Beta Version 1.0

    SciTech Connect

    2007-05-31

    The Building Restoration Operations Optimization Model (BROOM), developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a software product designed to aid in the restoration of large facilities contaminated by a biological material. BROOM’s integrated data collection, data management, and visualization software improves the efficiency of cleanup operations, minimizes facility downtime, and provides a transparent basis for reopening the facility. Secure remote access to building floor plans Floor plan drawings and knowledge of the HVAC system are critical to the design and implementation of effective sampling plans. In large facilities, access to these data may be complicated by the sheer abundance and disorganized state they are often stored in. BROOM avoids potentially costly delays by providing a means of organizing and storing mechanical and floor plan drawings in a secure remote database that is easily accessed. Sampling design tools BROOM provides an array of tools to answer the question of where to sample and how many samples to take. In addition to simple judgmental and random sampling plans, the software includes two sophisticated methods of adaptively developing a sampling strategy. Both tools strive to choose sampling locations that best satisfy a specified objective (i.e. minimizing kriging variance) but use numerically different strategies to do so. Surface samples are collected early in the restoration process to characterize the extent of contamination and then again later to verify that the facility is safe to reenter. BROOM supports sample collection using a ruggedized PDA equipped with a barcode scanner and laser range finder. The PDA displays building floor drawings, sampling plans, and electronic forms for data entry. Barcodes are placed on sample containers for the purpose of tracking the specimen and linking acquisition data (i.e. location, surface type, texture) to laboratory results. Sample location is determined by activating the integrated laser

  16. Building Restoration Operations Optimization Model Beta Version 1.0

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2007-05-31

    The Building Restoration Operations Optimization Model (BROOM), developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a software product designed to aid in the restoration of large facilities contaminated by a biological material. BROOM’s integrated data collection, data management, and visualization software improves the efficiency of cleanup operations, minimizes facility downtime, and provides a transparent basis for reopening the facility. Secure remote access to building floor plans Floor plan drawings and knowledge of the HVAC system are criticalmore » to the design and implementation of effective sampling plans. In large facilities, access to these data may be complicated by the sheer abundance and disorganized state they are often stored in. BROOM avoids potentially costly delays by providing a means of organizing and storing mechanical and floor plan drawings in a secure remote database that is easily accessed. Sampling design tools BROOM provides an array of tools to answer the question of where to sample and how many samples to take. In addition to simple judgmental and random sampling plans, the software includes two sophisticated methods of adaptively developing a sampling strategy. Both tools strive to choose sampling locations that best satisfy a specified objective (i.e. minimizing kriging variance) but use numerically different strategies to do so. Surface samples are collected early in the restoration process to characterize the extent of contamination and then again later to verify that the facility is safe to reenter. BROOM supports sample collection using a ruggedized PDA equipped with a barcode scanner and laser range finder. The PDA displays building floor drawings, sampling plans, and electronic forms for data entry. Barcodes are placed on sample containers for the purpose of tracking the specimen and linking acquisition data (i.e. location, surface type, texture) to laboratory results. Sample location is determined by activating the integrated

  17. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  18. The effect of simplifying the building description on the numerical modeling of its thermal performance

    SciTech Connect

    Stetiu, C.

    1993-07-01

    A thermal building simulation program is a numerical model that calculates the response of the building envelopes to weather and human activity, simulates dynamic heating and cooling loads, and heating and cooling distribution systems, and models building equipment operation. The scope of the research is to supply the users of such programs with information about the dangers and benefits of simplifying the input to their models. The Introduction describes the advantages of modeling the heat transfer mechanisms in a building. The programs that perform this type of modeling have, however, limitations. The user is therefore often put in the situation of simplifying the floor plans of the building under study, but not being able to check the effects that this approximation introduces in the results of the simulation. Chapter 1 is a description of methods. It also introduces the floor plans for the office building under study and the ``reasonable`` floor plans simplifications. Chapter 2 presents DOE-2, the thermal building simulation program used in the sensitivity study. The evaluation of the accuracy of the DOE-2 program itself is also presented. Chapter 3 contains the sensitivity study. The complicated nature of the process of interpreting the temperature profile inside a space leads to the necessity of defining different building modes. The study compares the results from the model of the detailed building description with the results from the models of the same building having simplified floor plans. The conclusion is reached that a study of the effects of simplifying the floor plans of a building is important mainly for defining the cases in which this approximation is acceptable. Different results are obtained for different air conditioning/load regimes of the building. 9 refs., 24 figs.

  19. Semantic Bim and GIS Modelling for Energy-Efficient Buildings Integrated in a Healthcare District

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebastian, R.; Böhms, H. M.; Bonsma, P.; van den Helm, P. W.

    2013-09-01

    The subject of energy-efficient buildings (EeB) is among the most urgent research priorities in the European Union (EU). In order to achieve the broadest impact, innovative approaches to EeB need to resolve challenges at the neighbourhood level, instead of only focusing on improvements of individual buildings. For this purpose, the design phase of new building projects as well as building retrofitting projects is the crucial moment for integrating multi-scale EeB solutions. In EeB design process, clients, architects, technical designers, contractors, and end-users altogether need new methods and tools for designing energy-efficiency buildings integrated in their neighbourhoods. Since the scope of designing covers multiple dimensions, the new design methodology relies on the inter-operability between Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Geospatial Information Systems (GIS). Design for EeB optimisation needs to put attention on the inter-connections between the architectural systems and the MEP/HVAC systems, as well as on the relation of Product Lifecycle Modelling (PLM), Building Management Systems (BMS), BIM and GIS. This paper is descriptive and it presents an actual EU FP7 large-scale collaborative research project titled STREAMER. The research on the inter-operability between BIM and GIS for holistic design of energy-efficient buildings in neighbourhood scale is supported by real case studies of mixed-use healthcare districts. The new design methodology encompasses all scales and all lifecycle phases of the built environment, as well as the whole lifecycle of the information models that comprises: Building Information Model (BIM), Building Assembly Model (BAM), Building Energy Model (BEM), and Building Operation Optimisation Model (BOOM).

  20. Simplified floor-area-based energy-moisture-economic model for residential buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Luis A.

    In the United States, 21% of all energy is used in residential buildings (40% of which is for heating and cooling homes). Promising improvements in residential building energy efficiency are underway such as the Building America Program and the Passive House Concept. The ability of improving energy efficiency in buildings is enhanced by building energy modeling tools, which are well advanced and established but lack generality (each building has to be modeled individually) and require high cost, which limits many residential buildings from taking advantage of such powerful tools. This dissertation attempts to develop guidelines based on a per-building-floor-area basis for designing residential buildings that achieve maximum energy efficiency and minimum life cycle cost. Energy and moisture-mass conservation principles were formulated for residential buildings on a per-building-floor-area basis. This includes thermal energy balance, moisture-mass conservation and life cycle cost. The analysis also includes the effects of day-lighting, initial cost estimation and escalation rates. The model was implemented on Excel so it is available for broader audiences and was validated using the standard BESTEST validation procedure for energy models yielding satisfactory results for different scenarios, within a 90% confidence interval. Using the model, parametric optimization studies were conducted in order to study how each variable affects energy and life cycle cost. An efficient whole-building optimization procedure was developed to determine the optimal design based on key design parameters. Whole-building optimization studies were conducted for 12 climate zones using four different criteria: minimum energy consumption, minimum life cycle cost (35 years) using constant energy costs and minimum life cycle cost (35 years) varying escalation rates (-5%, 10%). Conclusions and recommendations were inferred on how to design an optimal house, using each criterion and for all

  1. Model for Naturally Ventilated Cavities on the Exteriors of Opaque Building Thermal Envelopes

    SciTech Connect

    Griffith, B.

    2006-11-01

    This paper describes a model for naturally ventilated cavities on the exterior of opaque building thermal envelopes that are formed by the presence of a lightweight baffle. The model can be used for building components that are slightly detached from the main envelope (but do not connect to the interior).

  2. Some Classroom Experiences in the Teaching of Empirical Model Building and Regression Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utter, Merlin; Wilkinson, John W.

    The use of the digital computer for the presentation of the topics of empirical model building and regression analysis is discussed. The author concentrates upon a description of computing exercises which are employed to provide the students with experience in model building and evaluation in a controlled situation. The types of exercises given…

  3. Mathematical modeling of synergetic aspects of machine building enterprise management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazakov, O. D.; Andriyanov, S. V.

    2016-04-01

    The multivariate method of determining the optimal values of leading key performance indicators of production divisions of machine-building enterprises in the aspect of synergetics has been worked out.

  4. Stochastic modelling of traffic-induced building vibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y. L.; Hong, X. J.

    2008-06-01

    Because of rapid urbanization, more and more buildings are constructed closer to roadsides than they used to be. This gives rise to some environmental problems, for traffic-induced ground vibration deteriorates the human comfort in neighbouring buildings and affects the normal operation of nearby high-tech facilities. This paper presents a framework for quantifying traffic-induced building vibration in a stochastic way. Vehicle distribution along a roadway is first simulated based on vehicle spacing distribution and vehicle-type distribution. In consideration of buildings in proximity to the roadway, not only Rayleigh waves but also body waves induced by moving vehicle forces are included in the determination of the frequency-response function of a half-space. The combination of the moving force spectra with the frequency-response function of the half-space then leads to evolutionary ground spectra. The framework further provides a method for deriving the evolutionary spectra of a building to the evolutionary ground spectra. The proposed framework is finally applied to a typical three-dimensional high-tech facility, in which the effects of both a single heavy truck and a two-way traffic flow on building vibration are investigated. The results show that traffic-induced ground vibration impedes the normal operation of the high-tech facility.

  5. Integrating Smartphone Images and Airborne LIDAR Data for Complete Urban Building Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shenman; Shan, Jie; Zhang, Zhichao; Yan, Jixing; Hou, Yaolin

    2016-06-01

    A complete building model reconstruction needs data collected from both air and ground. The former often has sparse coverage on building façades, while the latter usually is unable to observe the building rooftops. Attempting to solve the missing data issues in building reconstruction from single data source, we describe an approach for complete building reconstruction that integrates airborne LiDAR data and ground smartphone imagery. First, by taking advantages of GPS and digital compass information embedded in the image metadata of smartphones, we are able to find airborne LiDAR point clouds for the corresponding buildings in the images. In the next step, Structure-from-Motion and dense multi-view stereo algorithms are applied to generate building point cloud from multiple ground images. The third step extracts building outlines respectively from the LiDAR point cloud and the ground image point cloud. An automated correspondence between these two sets of building outlines allows us to achieve a precise registration and combination of the two point clouds, which ultimately results in a complete and full resolution building model. The developed approach overcomes the problem of sparse points on building façades in airborne LiDAR and the deficiency of rooftops in ground images such that the merits of both datasets are utilized.

  6. Development of a 1D canopy module to couple mesoscale meteorogical model with building energy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mauree, Dasaraden; Kohler, Manon; Blond, Nadège; Clappier, Alain

    2013-04-01

    The actual global warming, highlighted by the scientific community, is due to the greenhouse gases emissions resulting from our energy consumption. This energy is mainly produced in cities (about 70% of the total energy use). Around 36% of this energy are used in buildings (residential/tertiary) and this accounts for about 20% of the greenhouse gases emissions. Moreover, the world population is more and more concentrated in urban areas, 50% of the actual world population already lives in cities and this ratio is expected to reach 70% by 2050. With the obviously increasing responsibility of cities in climate change in the future, it is of great importance to go toward more sustainable cities that would reduce the energy consumption in urban areas. The energy use inside buildings is driven by two factors: (1) the level of comfort wished by the inhabitants and (2) the urban climate. On the other hand, the urban climate is influenced by the presence of buildings. Indeed, artificial surfaces of urban areas modify the energy budget of the Earth's surface and furthermore, heat is released into the atmosphere due to the energy used by buildings. Modifications at the building scale (micro-scale) can thus have an influence on the climate of the urban areas and surroundings (meso-scale), and vice and versa. During the last decades, meso-scale models have been developed to simulate the atmospheric conditions for domain of 100-1000km wide with a resolution of few kilometers. Due to their low resolution, the effects of small obstacles (such as buildings, trees, ...) near the ground are not reproduced properly and parameterizations have been developed to represent such effects in meso-scale models. On the other side, micro-scale models have a higher resolution (around 1 meter) and consequently can better simulate the impact of obstacles on the atmospheric heat flux exchanges with the earth surface. However, only a smaller domain (less than 1km) can be simulated for the same

  7. ADDRESSING HUMAN EXPOSURES TO AIR POLLUTANTS AROUND BUILDINGS IN URBAN AREAS WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper discusses the status and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models to address challenges for modeling human exposures to air pollutants around urban building microenvironments. There are challenges for more detailed understanding of air pollutant sour...

  8. Review of development survey of phase change material models in building applications.

    PubMed

    Akeiber, Hussein J; Wahid, Mazlan A; Hussen, Hasanen M; Mohammad, Abdulrahman Th

    2014-01-01

    The application of phase change materials (PCMs) in green buildings has been increasing rapidly. PCM applications in green buildings include several development models. This paper briefly surveys the recent research and development activities of PCM technology in building applications. Firstly, a basic description of phase change and their principles is provided; the classification and applications of PCMs are also included. Secondly, PCM models in buildings are reviewed and discussed according to the wall, roof, floor, and cooling systems. Finally, conclusions are presented based on the collected data. PMID:25313367

  9. Review of Development Survey of Phase Change Material Models in Building Applications

    PubMed Central

    Akeiber, Hussein J.; Wahid, Mazlan A.; Hussen, Hasanen M.; Mohammad, Abdulrahman Th.

    2014-01-01

    The application of phase change materials (PCMs) in green buildings has been increasing rapidly. PCM applications in green buildings include several development models. This paper briefly surveys the recent research and development activities of PCM technology in building applications. Firstly, a basic description of phase change and their principles is provided; the classification and applications of PCMs are also included. Secondly, PCM models in buildings are reviewed and discussed according to the wall, roof, floor, and cooling systems. Finally, conclusions are presented based on the collected data. PMID:25313367

  10. A geometry and texture coupled flexible generalization of urban building models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Man; Zhang, Liqiang; Takis Mathiopoulos, P.; Xie, Wenqing; Ding, Yusi; Wang, Hao

    2012-06-01

    In the past, numerous research efforts have focused on generalization of city building models. However, a generic procedure for creating flexible generalization results supporting the fast and efficient update of original building models with various complexities is still an open problem. Moreover, building clusters created in previously published generalization methods are not flexible enough to meet the various requirements for both legible and realistic visualization. Motivated by these observations, this paper proposes a new method for generating a flexible generalization outcome which enables convenient updating of original building models. It also proposes a flexible preprocessing of this generalized information to render a legible and realistic urban scene. This is accomplished by introducing a novel component structure, termed as FEdge, particularly designed for efficiently managing the geometry and texture information in building cluster instances (both original building models and building clusters) during the generalization, visualization and updating processes. Furthermore, a multiple representation structure, referred to as Evolved Buffer-Tree (EBT), is also introduced. The purpose of the EBT is to organize building cluster instances and to employ more flexible LODs for both legible and realistic visualization of urban scenes. FEdge has an intuitive planar shape which can be effectively used in representing rough 3D facade composed by detailed continuous meshes. Each FEdge is given a unique identifier, referred to as FEdge Index. In the proposed generalization scheme, firstly each original building model treated as a building cluster instance is abstracted and presented as FEdge Indices. These FEdge Indices are then used for producing generalized building cluster instances in the EBT portably, and to support convenient model updating and flexible preprocessing of the generalization results for renderable building cluster instances. Secondly, to achieve

  11. A New Model for Building Digital Science Education Collections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niepold, F.; McCaffrey, M.; Morrill, C.; Ganse, J.; Weston, T.

    2005-12-01

    The Polar Regions play an integral role in how our Earth system operates. However, the Polar Regions are marginally studied in the K-12 classroom in the United States. The International Polar Year's (IPY) coordinated campaign of polar observations, research, and analysis that will be multidisciplinary in scope and international in participation offers a powerful opportunity for K-12 classroom. The IPY's scientific objective to better understand the key roles of the Polar Regions in global processes will allow students a window into the poles and this unique regions role in the Earth system. IPY will produce careful, useful scientific information that will advance our understanding of the Polar Regions and their connections to the rest of the globe. The IPY is an opportunity to inspire the next generation of very young Earth system scientists. The IPY's draft education & outreach position paper asks a key question that must guide future educational projects; "Why is the polar regions and polar research important to all people on earth?" In efforts to coordinate educational activities and collaborate with international projects, United States national agencies, and other educational initiatives, it is the purpose of this session to explore potential partnerships, while primarily recommending a model for educational product development and review. During such a large international science endeavor, numerous educational activities and opportunities are developed, but these educational programs can suffer from too many unconnected options being available to teachers and students. Additionally, activities often are incompatible with each other making classroom implementation unnecessarily complex and prohibitively time consuming for teachers. A newly develop educational activity collection technique developed for DLESE offers an effective model for IPY product gap analysis and development. The Climate Change Collection developed as a pilot project for the Digital Library

  12. FOUNDRY LANDSCAPE LOOKING NORTHWEST FROM MALLEABLE STOCK YARD CRANE SHOWING ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    FOUNDRY LANDSCAPE LOOKING NORTHWEST FROM MALLEABLE STOCK YARD CRANE SHOWING THE MALLEABLE ANNEALING BUILDING AND THE BRASS FOUNDRY. - Stockham Pipe & Fittings Company, 4000 Tenth Avenue North, Birmingham, Jefferson County, AL

  13. 14. VIEW LOOKING NORTHEAST INSIDE OF THE 22' BAR STOCKING ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    14. VIEW LOOKING NORTHEAST INSIDE OF THE 22' BAR STOCKING AND FINISHING BUILDING AT THE PICKLING VATS. - U.S. Steel Duquesne Works, 22-Inch Bar Mill, Along Monongahela River, Duquesne, Allegheny County, PA

  14. Random cascade model in the limit of infinite integral scale as the exponential of a nonstationary 1/f noise: Application to volatility fluctuations in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muzy, Jean-François; Baïle, Rachel; Bacry, Emmanuel

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a nonstationary Gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval, are very close to continuous cascade models. These latter models are indeed well known to reproduce faithfully the main stylized facts of financial time series. However, it involves a large-scale parameter (the so-called “integral scale” where the cascade is initiated) that is hard to interpret in finance. Moreover, the empirical value of the integral scale is in general deeply correlated to the overall length of the sample. This feature is precisely predicted by our model, which, as illustrated by various examples from daily stock index data, quantitatively reproduces the empirical observations.

  15. Work-related illness in offices: A proposed model of the sick building syndrome

    SciTech Connect

    Hedge, A. ); Burge, P.S.; Robertson, A.S. ); Wilson, S. ); Harris-Bass, J. )

    1989-01-01

    A nationwide survey of 4,373 office workers at 47 office sites was conducted to assess the prevalence of the sick building syndrome and to investigate associated factors. The office buildings sampled included those ventilated by either natural, mechanical, or forced air, or by air conditioning or some form of comfort cooling, including fan-coil, induction, and constant or variable air volume systems. Results showed a higher prevalence of reports of work-related symptoms in air conditioned buildings than in unconditioned buildings. Symptom prevalence was higher in buildings ventilated with water-based cooling systems, e.g., fan-coil or induction systems, than in buildings with all-air systems. A significant relationship was found between the type of humidification used in air-conditioned buildings (none, evaporative/spray, or steam) and the prevalence of itchy eyes, stuffy nose, lethargy, breathing difficulty, and chest tightness. Results also suggest that the sick building syndrome is associated with a variety of individual characteristics (sex, age), occupational factors (job type, length of video display unit use, occupancy duration in building, job stress), architectural features (type of office, type of building ventilation system), and psychological processes (perceived environmental control, perceived ambient conditions, perceived environmental satisfaction). A path analytic model is presented that suggests that psychological processes mediate the association between individual, occupational, and environmental characteristics and reports of the sick building syndrome.

  16. The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2013-03-01

    The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

  17. The alarming decline of Mediterranean fish stocks.

    PubMed

    Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas; Maravelias, Christos D; Tserpes, George

    2014-07-21

    In recent years, fisheries management has succeeded in stabilizing and even improving the state of many global fisheries resources [1-5]. This is particularly evident in areas where stocks are exploited in compliance with scientific advice and strong institutional structures are in place [1, 5]. In Europe, the well-managed northeast (NE) Atlantic fish stocks have been recovering in response to decreasing fishing pressure over the past decade [3-6], albeit with a long way to go for a universal stock rebuild [3, 7]. Meanwhile, little is known about the temporal development of the European Mediterranean stocks, whose management relies on input controls that are often poorly enforced. Here, we perform a meta-analysis of 42 European Mediterranean stocks of nine species in 1990-2010, showing that exploitation rate has been steadily increasing, selectivity (proportional exploitation of juveniles) has been deteriorating, and stocks have been shrinking. We implement species-specific simulation models to quantify changes in exploitation rate and selectivity that would maximize long-term yields and halt stock depletion. We show that stocks would be more resilient to fishing and produce higher long-term yields if harvested a few years after maturation because current selectivity is far from optimal, especially for demersal stocks. The European Common Fisheries Policy that has assisted in improving the state of NE Atlantic fish stocks in the past 10 years has failed to deliver similar results for Mediterranean stocks managed under the same policy. Limiting juvenile exploitation, advancing management plans, and strengthening compliance, control, and enforcement could promote fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean. PMID:25017210

  18. Low Oxygen Storage of Farmer Stock Peanuts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Farmer stock peanuts are stored in bulk storage facilities for periods ranging from 30d to 12mo. Studies were conducted in 1/10 scale conventional and monolithic dome storage facilities located in Dawson, GA. Conventional storage was represented by four metal buildings with storage capacity of appro...

  19. Buildings Interoperability Landscape

    SciTech Connect

    Hardin, Dave; Stephan, Eric G.; Wang, Weimin; Corbin, Charles D.; Widergren, Steven E.

    2015-12-31

    Through its Building Technologies Office (BTO), the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE-EERE) is sponsoring an effort to advance interoperability for the integration of intelligent buildings equipment and automation systems, understanding the importance of integration frameworks and product ecosystems to this cause. This is important to BTO’s mission to enhance energy efficiency and save energy for economic and environmental purposes. For connected buildings ecosystems of products and services from various manufacturers to flourish, the ICT aspects of the equipment need to integrate and operate simply and reliably. Within the concepts of interoperability lie the specification, development, and certification of equipment with standards-based interfaces that connect and work. Beyond this, a healthy community of stakeholders that contribute to and use interoperability work products must be developed. On May 1, 2014, the DOE convened a technical meeting to take stock of the current state of interoperability of connected equipment and systems in buildings. Several insights from that meeting helped facilitate a draft description of the landscape of interoperability for connected buildings, which focuses mainly on small and medium commercial buildings. This document revises the February 2015 landscape document to address reviewer comments, incorporate important insights from the Buildings Interoperability Vision technical meeting, and capture thoughts from that meeting about the topics to be addressed in a buildings interoperability vision. In particular, greater attention is paid to the state of information modeling in buildings and the great potential for near-term benefits in this area from progress and community alignment.

  20. Using Models to Provide Predicted Ranges for Building-Human Interfaces: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Long, N.; Scheib, J.; Pless, S.; Schott, M.

    2013-09-01

    Most building energy consumption dashboards provide only a snapshot of building performance; whereas some provide more detailed historic data with which to compare current usage. This paper will discuss the Building Agent(tm) platform, which has been developed and deployed in a campus setting at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory as part of an effort to maintain the aggressive energyperformance achieved in newly constructed office buildings and laboratories. The Building Agent(tm) provides aggregated and coherent access to building data, including electric energy, thermal energy, temperatures, humidity, and lighting levels, and occupant feedback, which are displayed in various manners for visitors, building occupants, facility managers, and researchers. This paper focuseson the development of visualizations for facility managers, or an energy performance assurance role, where metered data are used to generate models that provide live predicted ranges of building performance by end use. These predicted ranges provide simple, visual context for displayed performance data without requiring users to also assess historical information or trends. Several energymodelling techniques were explored including static lookup-based performance targets, reduced-order models derived from historical data using main effect variables such as solar radiance for lighting performance, and integrated energy models using a whole-building energy simulation program.

  1. Alignment of 3D Building Models and TIR Video Sequences with Line Tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwaszczuk, D.; Stilla, U.

    2014-11-01

    Thermal infrared imagery of urban areas became interesting for urban climate investigations and thermal building inspections. Using a flying platform such as UAV or a helicopter for the acquisition and combining the thermal data with the 3D building models via texturing delivers a valuable groundwork for large-area building inspections. However, such thermal textures are useful for further analysis if they are geometrically correctly extracted. This can be achieved with a good coregistrations between the 3D building models and thermal images, which cannot be achieved by direct georeferencing. Hence, this paper presents methodology for alignment of 3D building models and oblique TIR image sequences taken from a flying platform. In a single image line correspondences between model edges and image line segments are found using accumulator approach and based on these correspondences an optimal camera pose is calculated to ensure the best match between the projected model and the image structures. Among the sequence the linear features are tracked based on visibility prediction. The results of the proposed methodology are presented using a TIR image sequence taken from helicopter in a densely built-up urban area. The novelty of this work is given by employing the uncertainty of the 3D building models and by innovative tracking strategy based on a priori knowledge from the 3D building model and the visibility checking.

  2. Exposure Modeling for Polychlorinated Biphenyls in School Buildings

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is limited research on characterizing exposures from PCB sources for occupants of school buildings. PCB measurement results from six schools were used to estimate potential exposure distributions for four age groups (4-5, 6-10, 11-14, 14-18 year-olds) using the Stochastic...

  3. Modeling Best Practice through Online Learning: Building Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cerniglia, Ellen G.

    2011-01-01

    Students may fear that they will feel unsupported and isolated when engaged in online learning. They don't know how they will be able to build relationships with their teacher and classmates solely based on written words, without facial expressions, tone of voice, and other nonverbal communication cues. Traditionally, online learning required…

  4. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  5. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  6. Modeling, research and development of the system for optimal heat consumption of a building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovalnogov, Vladislav N.; Chamchiyan, Yuri E.; Suranov, Dmitry V.

    2016-06-01

    The work sets out the technical, software and organizational and methodological solutions for automated management and optimization of a building's heat consumption. It shows the results of modeling and research on the effectiveness of the automated system of heat consumption control of the main building of Ulyanovsk State Technical University.

  7. Adapting to Students' Social and Health Needs: Suggested Framework for Building Inclusive Models of Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwitzer, Alan M.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: This article builds on earlier discussions about college health research. The author suggests a 5-step framework that research practitioners can use to build models of practice that accurately address the needs of diverse campus populations. Methods: The author provides 3 illustrations, drawn from published research examining college…

  8. Object-Oriented Database for Managing Building Modeling Components and Metadata: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Long, N.; Fleming, K.; Brackney, L.

    2011-12-01

    Building simulation enables users to explore and evaluate multiple building designs. When tools for optimization, parametrics, and uncertainty analysis are combined with analysis engines, the sheer number of discrete simulation datasets makes it difficult to keep track of the inputs. The integrity of the input data is critical to designers, engineers, and researchers for code compliance, validation, and building commissioning long after the simulations are finished. This paper discusses an application that stores inputs needed for building energy modeling in a searchable, indexable, flexible, and scalable database to help address the problem of managing simulation input data.

  9. Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; Guo, Siyue

    2014-02-28

    Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

  10. Application of Technical Measures and Software in Constructing Photorealistic 3D Models of Historical Building Using Ground-Based and Aerial (UAV) Digital Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarnowski, Aleksander; Banaszek, Anna; Banaszek, Sebastian

    2015-12-01

    Preparing digital documentation of historical buildings is a form of protecting cultural heritage. Recently there have been several intensive studies using non-metric digital images to construct realistic 3D models of historical buildings. Increasingly often, non-metric digital images are obtained with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Technologies and methods of UAV flights are quite different from traditional photogrammetric approaches. The lack of technical guidelines for using drones inhibits the process of implementing new methods of data acquisition. This paper presents the results of experiments in the use of digital images in the construction of photo-realistic 3D model of a historical building (Raphaelsohns' Sawmill in Olsztyn). The aim of the study at the first stage was to determine the meteorological and technical conditions for the acquisition of aerial and ground-based photographs. At the next stage, the technology of 3D modelling was developed using only ground-based or only aerial non-metric digital images. At the last stage of the study, an experiment was conducted to assess the possibility of 3D modelling with the comprehensive use of aerial (UAV) and ground-based digital photographs in terms of their labour intensity and precision of development. Data integration and automatic photo-realistic 3D construction of the models was done with Pix4Dmapper and Agisoft PhotoScan software Analyses have shown that when certain parameters established in an experiment are kept, the process of developing the stock-taking documentation for a historical building moves from the standards of analogue to digital technology with considerably reduced cost.

  11. Development and evaluation of a building energy model integrated in the TEB scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bueno, B.; Pigeon, G.; Norford, L. K.; Zibouche, K.

    2011-11-01

    The use of air-conditioning systems is expected to increase as a consequence of global-scale and urban-scale climate warming. In order to represent future scenarios of urban climate and building energy consumption, the Town Energy Budget (TEB) scheme must be improved. This paper presents a new building energy model (BEM) that has been integrated in the TEB scheme. BEM-TEB makes it possible to represent the energy effects of buildings and building systems on the urban climate and to estimate the building energy consumption at city scale (~10 km) with a resolution of a neighbourhood (~100 m). The physical and geometric definition of buildings in BEM has been intentionally kept as simple as possible, while maintaining the required features of a comprehensive building energy model. The model considers a single thermal zone, where the thermal inertia of building materials associated with multiple levels is represented by a generic thermal mass. The model accounts for heat gains due to transmitted solar radiation, heat conduction through the enclosure, infiltration, ventilation, and internal heat gains. As a difference with respect to other building parameterizations used in urban climate, BEM includes specific models for real air-conditioning systems. It accounts for the dependence of the system capacity and efficiency on indoor and outdoor air temperatures and solves the dehumidification of the air passing through the system. Furthermore, BEM includes specific models for passive systems, such as window shadowing devices and natural ventilation. BEM has satisfactorily passed different evaluation processes, including testing its modelling assumptions, verifying that the chosen equations are solved correctly, and validating the model with field data.

  12. Integrated wetland management: an analysis with group model building based on system dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hsin; Chang, Yang-Chi; Chen, Kung-Chen

    2014-12-15

    The wetland system possesses diverse functions such as preserving water sources, mediating flooding, providing habitats for wildlife and stabilizing coastlines. Nonetheless, rapid economic growth and the increasing population have significantly deteriorated the wetland environment. To secure the sustainability of the wetland, it is essential to introduce integrated and systematic management. This paper examines the resource management of the Jiading Wetland by applying group model building (GMB) and system dynamics (SD). We systematically identify local stakeholders' mental model regarding the impact brought by the yacht industry, and further establish a SD model to simulate the dynamic wetland environment. The GMB process improves the stakeholders' understanding about the interaction between the wetland environment and management policies. Differences between the stakeholders' perceptions and the behaviors shown by the SD model also suggest that our analysis would facilitate the stakeholders to broaden their horizons and achieve consensus on the wetland resource management. PMID:25194518

  13. Stepwise building of plankton functional type (PFT) models: A feasible route to complex models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frede Thingstad, T.; Strand, Espen; Larsen, Aud

    2010-01-01

    We discuss the strategy of building models of the lower part of the planktonic food web in a stepwise manner: starting with few plankton functional types (PFTs) and adding resolution and complexity while carrying along the insight and results gained from simpler models. A central requirement for PFT models is that they allow sustained coexistence of the PFTs. Here we discuss how this identifies a need to consider predation, parasitism and defence mechanisms together with nutrient acquisition and competition. Although the stepwise addition of complexity is assumed to be useful and feasible, a rapid increase in complexity strongly calls for alternative approaches able to model emergent system-level features without a need for detailed representation of all the underlying biological detail.

  14. Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual

  15. Evaluation of the Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Estimating Moisture Buffering in Buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Woods, J.; Winkler, J.; Christensen, D.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model, and its suitability for building simulations. The EMPD model is a compromise between the simple, inaccurate effective capacitance approach and the complex, yet accurate, finite-difference approach. Two formulations of the EMPD model were examined, including the model used in the EnergyPlus building simulation software. An error in the EMPD model we uncovered was fixed with the release of EnergyPlus version 7.2, and the EMPD model in earlier versions of EnergyPlus should not be used.

  16. Implementing a Technology-Supported Model for Cross-Organisational Learning and Knowledge Building for Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tammets, Kairit; Pata, Kai; Laanpere, Mart

    2012-01-01

    This study proposed using the elaborated learning and knowledge building model (LKB model) derived from Nonaka and Takeuchi's knowledge management model for supporting cross-organisational teacher development in the temporarily extended organisations composed of universities and schools. It investigated the main LKB model components in the context…

  17. Semi-Automatic Building Models and FAÇADE Texture Mapping from Mobile Phone Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, J.; Kim, T.

    2016-06-01

    Research on 3D urban modelling has been actively carried out for a long time. Recently the need of 3D urban modelling research is increased rapidly due to improved geo-web services and popularized smart devices. Nowadays 3D urban models provided by, for example, Google Earth use aerial photos for 3D urban modelling but there are some limitations: immediate update for the change of building models is difficult, many buildings are without 3D model and texture, and large resources for maintaining and updating are inevitable. To resolve the limitations mentioned above, we propose a method for semi-automatic building modelling and façade texture mapping from mobile phone images and analyze the result of modelling with actual measurements. Our method consists of camera geometry estimation step, image matching step, and façade mapping step. Models generated from this method were compared with actual measurement value of real buildings. Ratios of edge length of models and measurements were compared. Result showed 5.8% average error of length ratio. Through this method, we could generate a simple building model with fine façade textures without expensive dedicated tools and dataset.

  18. EIA models and capacity building in Viet Nam: an analysis of development aid programs

    SciTech Connect

    Doberstein, Brent

    2004-04-01

    There has been a decided lack of empirical research examining development aid agencies as 'agents of change' in environmental impact assessment (EIA) systems in developing countries, particularly research examining the model of environmental planning practice promoted by aid agencies as part of capacity building. This paper briefly traces a conceptual framework of EIA, then introduces the concept of 'EIA capacity building'. Using Viet Nam as a case study, the paper then outlines the empirical results of the research, focusing on the extent to which aid agency capacity-building programs promoted a Technical vs. Planning Model of EIA and on the coherence of capacity-building efforts across all aid programs. A discussion follows, where research results are interpreted within the Vietnamese context, and implications of research results are identified for three main groups of actors. The paper concludes by calling for development aid agencies to reconceptualise EIA capacity building as an opportunity to transform developing countries' development planning processes.

  19. Visual-SOLAR: Modeling and Visualization of Solar Radiation Potential on Individual Building Rooftops

    SciTech Connect

    2013-05-01

    We have developed a modeling framework for estimating solar radiation potentials on individual building rooftops that is suitable for utility-scale applications as well as building-specific applications. The framework uses light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data at approximately 1-meter horizontal resolution and 0.3-meter vertical resolution as input for modeling a large number of buildings quickly. One of the strengths of this framework is the ability to parallelize its implementation. Furthermore, the framework accounts for building specific characteristics, such as roof slope, roof aspect, and shadowing effects, that are critical to roof-mounted photovoltaic system. The resulting data has helped us to identify the so-called "solar panel sweet spots" on individual building rooftops and obtain accurate statistics of the variation in solar radiation as a function of time of year and geographical location.

  20. Visual-SOLAR: Modeling and Visualization of Solar Radiation Potential on Individual Building Rooftops

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2013-05-01

    We have developed a modeling framework for estimating solar radiation potentials on individual building rooftops that is suitable for utility-scale applications as well as building-specific applications. The framework uses light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data at approximately 1-meter horizontal resolution and 0.3-meter vertical resolution as input for modeling a large number of buildings quickly. One of the strengths of this framework is the ability to parallelize its implementation. Furthermore, the framework accounts for building specificmore » characteristics, such as roof slope, roof aspect, and shadowing effects, that are critical to roof-mounted photovoltaic system. The resulting data has helped us to identify the so-called "solar panel sweet spots" on individual building rooftops and obtain accurate statistics of the variation in solar radiation as a function of time of year and geographical location.« less

  1. Comparing EM Models to RCS Measurements for Building-Penetration Radar

    SciTech Connect

    Fasenfest, B; Ueberschaer, R

    2007-05-18

    For the DARPA VisiBuilding program, SRI International and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are using a variety of electromagnetic (EM) simulation codes and measurement techniques to analyze how radar pulses interact with building structures and materials. Of primary interest is how interior wall and corner reflections are delayed, attenuated, and dispersed by the exterior wall materials. In this paper, we compare microwave frequency-domain radar cross section (RCS) chamber measurements of scale models of simple buildings to finite-element and finite-difference full-wave time-domain and ray-tracing models. The ability to accurately reconstruct the building from these models is compared with the reconstruction from chamber measurements. We observe that careful attention to the spatial sampling in the EM models is essential to achieving good reconstruction at the higher frequencies.

  2. Automated Translation and Thermal Zoning of Digital Building Models for Energy Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Nathaniel L.; McCrone, Colin J.; Walter, Bruce J.; Pratt, Kevin B.; Greenberg, Donald P.

    2013-08-26

    Building energy simulation is valuable during the early stages of design, when decisions can have the greatest impact on energy performance. However, preparing digital design models for building energy simulation typically requires tedious manual alteration. This paper describes a series of five automated steps to translate geometric data from an unzoned CAD model into a multi-zone building energy model. First, CAD input is interpreted as geometric surfaces with materials. Second, surface pairs defining walls of various thicknesses are identified. Third, normal directions of unpaired surfaces are determined. Fourth, space boundaries are defined. Fifth, optionally, settings from previous simulations are applied, and spaces are aggregated into a smaller number of thermal zones. Building energy models created quickly using this method can offer guidance throughout the design process.

  3. Fire modeling for Building 221-T - T Plant Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel

    SciTech Connect

    Oar, D.L.

    1994-09-29

    This report was prepared by Hughes Associates, Inc. to document the results of fire models for building 221-T Canyon Deck and Railroad Tunnel. Backup data is contained in document No. WHC-SD-CP-ANAL-010, Rev. 0.

  4. A Working Model of Protein Synthesis Using Lego(TM) Building Blocks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Templin, Mark A.; Fetters, Marcia K.

    2002-01-01

    Uses Lego building blocks to improve the effectiveness of teaching about protein synthesis. Provides diagrams and pictures for a 2-3 day student activity. Discusses mRNA, transfer RNA, and a protein synthesis model. (MVL)

  5. Development and evaluation of a building energy model integrated in the TEB scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bueno, B.; Pigeon, G.; Norford, L. K.; Zibouche, K.; Marchadier, C.

    2012-03-01

    The use of air-conditioning systems is expected to increase as a consequence of global-scale and urban-scale climate warming. In order to represent future scenarios of urban climate and building energy consumption, the Town Energy Balance (TEB) scheme must be improved. This paper presents a new building energy model (BEM) that has been integrated in the TEB scheme. BEM-TEB makes it possible to represent the energy effects of buildings and building systems on the urban climate and to estimate the building energy consumption at city scale (~10 km) with a resolution of a neighbourhood (~100 m). The physical and geometric definition of buildings in BEM has been intentionally kept as simple as possible, while maintaining the required features of a comprehensive building energy model. The model considers a single thermal zone, where the thermal inertia of building materials associated with multiple levels is represented by a generic thermal mass. The model accounts for heat gains due to transmitted solar radiation, heat conduction through the enclosure, infiltration, ventilation, and internal heat gains. BEM allows for previously unavailable sophistication in the modelling of air-conditioning systems. It accounts for the dependence of the system capacity and efficiency on indoor and outdoor air temperatures and solves the dehumidification of the air passing through the system. Furthermore, BEM includes specific models for passive systems, such as window shadowing devices and natural ventilation. BEM has satisfactorily passed different evaluation processes, including testing its modelling assumptions, verifying that the chosen equations are solved correctly, and validating the model with field data.

  6. Response Surface Model Building and Multidisciplinary Optimization Using D-Optimal Designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Lepsch, Roger A.; McMillin, Mark L.

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses response surface methods for approximation model building and multidisciplinary design optimization. The response surface methods discussed are central composite designs, Bayesian methods and D-optimal designs. An over-determined D-optimal design is applied to a configuration design and optimization study of a wing-body, launch vehicle. Results suggest that over determined D-optimal designs may provide an efficient approach for approximation model building and for multidisciplinary design optimization.

  7. Automatic Topology Derivation from Ifc Building Model for In-Door Intelligent Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, S. J.; Zhu, Q.; Wang, W. W.; Zhang, Y. T.

    2015-05-01

    With the goal to achieve an accuracy navigation within the building environment, it is critical to explore a feasible way for building the connectivity relationships among 3D geographical features called in-building topology network. Traditional topology construction approaches for indoor space always based on 2D maps or pure geometry model, which remained information insufficient problem. Especially, an intelligent navigation for different applications depends mainly on the precise geometry and semantics of the navigation network. The trouble caused by existed topology construction approaches can be smoothed by employing IFC building model which contains detailed semantic and geometric information. In this paper, we present a method which combined a straight media axis transformation algorithm (S-MAT) with IFC building model to reconstruct indoor geometric topology network. This derived topology aimed at facilitating the decision making for different in-building navigation. In this work, we describe a multi-step deviation process including semantic cleaning, walkable features extraction, Multi-Storey 2D Mapping and S-MAT implementation to automatically generate topography information from existing indoor building model data given in IFC.

  8. Simulation Speed Analysis and Improvements of Modelica Models for Building Energy Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Jorissen, Filip; Wetter, Michael; Helsen, Lieve

    2015-09-21

    This paper presents an approach for speeding up Modelica models. Insight is provided into how Modelica models are solved and what determines the tool’s computational speed. Aspects such as algebraic loops, code efficiency and integrator choice are discussed. This is illustrated using simple building simulation examples and Dymola. The generality of the work is in some cases verified using OpenModelica. Using this approach, a medium sized office building including building envelope, heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and control strategy can be simulated at a speed five hundred times faster than real time.

  9. Modeling of two-storey precast school building using Ruaumoko 2D program

    SciTech Connect

    Hamid, N. H.; Tarmizi, L. H.; Ghani, K. D.

    2015-05-15

    The long-distant earthquake loading from Sumatra and Java Island had caused some slight damages to precast and reinforced concrete buildings in West Malaysia such as cracks on wall panels, columns and beams. Subsequently, the safety of existing precast concrete building is needed to be analyzed because these buildings were designed using BS 8110 which did not include the seismic loading in the design. Thus, this paper emphasizes on the seismic performance and dynamic behavior of precast school building constructed in Malaysia under three selected past earthquakes excitations ; El Centro 1940 North-South, El Centro East-West components and San Fernando 1971 using RUAUMOKO 2D program. This program is fully utilized by using prototype precast school model and dynamic non-linear time history analysis. From the results, it can be concluded that two-storey precast school building has experienced severe damage and partial collapse especially at beam-column joint under San Fernando and El Centro North-South Earthquake as its exceeds the allowable inter-storey drift and displacement as specified in Eurocode 8. The San Fernando earthquake has produced a massive destruction to the precast building under viscous damping, ξ = 5% and this building has generated maximum building displacement of 435mm, maximum building drift of 0.68% and maximum bending moment at 8458kNm.

  10. Modeling of two-storey precast school building using Ruaumoko 2D program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, N. H.; Tarmizi, L. H.; Ghani, K. D.

    2015-05-01

    The long-distant earthquake loading from Sumatra and Java Island had caused some slight damages to precast and reinforced concrete buildings in West Malaysia such as cracks on wall panels, columns and beams. Subsequently, the safety of existing precast concrete building is needed to be analyzed because these buildings were designed using BS 8110 which did not include the seismic loading in the design. Thus, this paper emphasizes on the seismic performance and dynamic behavior of precast school building constructed in Malaysia under three selected past earthquakes excitations ; El Centro 1940 North-South, El Centro East-West components and San Fernando 1971 using RUAUMOKO 2D program. This program is fully utilized by using prototype precast school model and dynamic non-linear time history analysis. From the results, it can be concluded that two-storey precast school building has experienced severe damage and partial collapse especially at beam-column joint under San Fernando and El Centro North-South Earthquake as its exceeds the allowable inter-storey drift and displacement as specified in Eurocode 8. The San Fernando earthquake has produced a massive destruction to the precast building under viscous damping, ξ = 5% and this building has generated maximum building displacement of 435mm, maximum building drift of 0.68% and maximum bending moment at 8458kNm.

  11. A Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Christine; Cook, Stan

    1990-01-01

    Offers a field-tested stock market unit designed to develop mathematical skills involving fractions and decimals, basic understanding of the stock market, and hypothesis testing skills in real world situations. Includes tables displaying questions, tally sheets, and instructions, as well as a list of related activities. (MDH)

  12. A Gestalt rules and graph-cut-based simplification framework for urban building models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuebin; Zhang, Liqiang; Mathiopoulos, P. Takis; Deng, Hao

    2015-03-01

    To visualize large urban models efficiently, this paper presents a framework for generalizing urban building footprints and facade textures by using multiple Gestalt rules and a graph-cut-based energy function. First, an urban scene is divided into different blocks by main road networks. In each block, the building footprints are partitioned into potential Gestalt groups. A footprint may satisfy several Gestalt principles. We employ the graph-cut-based optimization function to obtain a consistent segmentation of the buildings into optimal Gestalt groups with minimal energy. The building footprints in each Gestalt group are aggregated into different levels of detail (LODs). Building facade textures are also abstracted and simplified into multiple LODs using the same approach as the building footprint simplification. An effective data structure termed SceneTree is introduced to manage these aggregated building footprints and facade textures. Combined with the parallelization scheme, the rendering efficiency of large-scale urban buildings is improved. Compared with other methods, our presented method can efficiently visualize large urban models and maintain the city's image.

  13. The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China’s forests between 2005 and 2050

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Huifeng; Wang, Shaopeng; Guo, Zhaodi; Xu, Bing; Fang, Jingyun

    2015-01-01

    China’s forests are characterized by young age, low carbon (C) density and a large plantation area, implying a high potential for increasing C sinks in the future. Using data of provincial forest area and biomass C density from China’s forest inventories between 1994 and 2008 and the planned forest coverage of the country by 2050, we developed a stage-classified matrix model to predict biomass C stocks of China’s forests from 2005 to 2050. The results showed that total forest biomass C stock would increase from 6.43 Pg C (1 Pg = 1015 g) in 2005 to 9.97 Pg C (95% confidence interval: 8.98 ~ 11.07 Pg C) in 2050, with an overall net C gain of 78.8 Tg C yr−1 (56.7 ~ 103.3 Tg C yr−1; 1 Tg = 1012 g). Our findings suggest that China’s forests will be a large and persistent biomass C sink through 2050. PMID:26110831

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of soil carbon and nitrogen from a 20-year fertilised wheat-maize intercropping system: A model approach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xubo; Xu, Minggang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Nan; Wang, Boren; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-02-01

    Accurate modelling of agricultural management impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and the cycling of carbon and nitrogen is complicated due to interactions between various processes and the disturbance caused by field management. In this study, a process-based model, the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum System (SPACSYS), was used to simulate the effects of different fertilisation regimes on crop yields, the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (SN) stocks from 1990 to 2010, and soil CO2 (2007-2010) and N2O (2007-2008) emissions based on a long-term fertilisation experiment with a winter-wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) and summer-maize (Zea mays L.) intercropping system in Eutric Cambisol (FAO) soil in southern China. Three fertilisation treatments were 1) unfertilised (Control), 2) chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), and 3) NPK plus pig manure (NPKM). Statistical analyses indicated that the SPACSYS model can reasonably simulate the yields of wheat and maize, the evolution of SOC and SN stocks and soil CO2 and N2O emissions. The simulations showed that the NPKM treatment had the highest values of crop yields, SOC and SN stocks, and soil CO2 and N2O emissions were the lowest from the Control treatment. Furthermore, the simulated results showed that manure amendment along with chemical fertiliser applications led to both C (1017 ± 470 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) and N gains (91.7 ± 15.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) in the plant-soil system, while the Control treatment caused a slight loss in C and N. In conclusion, the SPACSYS model can accurately simulate the processes of C and N as affected by various fertilisation treatments in the red soil. Furthermore, application of chemical fertilisers plus manure could be a suitable management for ensuring crop yield and sustaining soil fertility in the red soil region, but the ratio of chemical fertilisers to manure should be optimized to reduce C and N losses to the environment. PMID:26615226

  15. The use of copula functions for modeling the risk of investment in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domino, Krzysztof; Błachowicz, Tomasz

    2014-11-01

    In our work copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using the local Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) were used to investigate the risk of investment made in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The combination of copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using local DFA is a new approach. For copula function analysis bivariate variables composed of shares prices of the PEKAO bank (a big bank with high capitalization) and other banks (PKOBP, BZ WBK, MBANK and HANDLOWY in decreasing capitalization order) and companies from other branches (KGHM-mining industry, PKNORLEN-petrol industry as well as ASSECO-software industry) were used. Hurst exponents were calculated for daily shares prices and used to predict high drops of those prices. It appeared to be a valuable indicator in the copula selection procedure, since Hurst exponent’s low values were pointing on heavily tailed copulas e.g. the Clayton one.

  16. Building Mathematical Models of Simple Harmonic and Damped Motion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, Thomas

    1995-01-01

    By developing a sequence of mathematical models of harmonic motion, shows that mathematical models are not right or wrong, but instead are better or poorer representations of the problem situation. (MKR)

  17. A sensitivity model for energy consumption in buildings. Part 1: Effect of exterior environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansing, F. L.

    1981-01-01

    A simple analytical model is developed for the simulation of seasonal heating and cooling loads of any class of buildings to complement available computerized techniques which make hourly, daily, and monthly calculations. An expression for the annual energy utilization index, which is a common measure of rating buildings having the same functional utilization, is derived to include about 30 parameters for both building interior and exterior environments. The sensitivity of a general class building to either controlled or uncontrolled weather parameters is examined. A hypothetical office type building, located at the Goldstone Space Communication Complex, Goldstone, California, is selected as an example for the numerical sensitivity evaluations. Several expressions of variations in local outside air temperature, pressure, solar radiation, and wind velocity are presented.

  18. Building generic anatomical models using virtual model cutting and iterative registration

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    -region from it at their ease. Java-based implementation allows our method to be used on various visualization systems including personal computers, workstations, computers equipped with stereo displays, and even virtual reality rooms such as the CAVE Automated Virtual Environment. The technique allows biologists to build generic 3D models of their interest quickly and accurately. PMID:20144190

  19. Building an Online Wisdom Community: A Transformational Design Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunawardena, Charlotte N.; Jennings, Barbara; Ortegano-Layne, Ludmila C.; Frechette, Casey; Carabajal, Kayleigh; Lindemann, Ken; Mummert, Julia

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the development of a new instructional design model based on socioconstructivist learning theories and distance education principles for the design of online wisdom communities and the efficacy of the model drawing on evaluation results from its implementation in Fall 2002. The model, Final Outcome Centered Around Learner…

  20. Building Higher-Order Markov Chain Models with EXCEL

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ching, Wai-Ki; Fung, Eric S.; Ng, Michael K.

    2004-01-01

    Categorical data sequences occur in many applications such as forecasting, data mining and bioinformatics. In this note, we present higher-order Markov chain models for modelling categorical data sequences with an efficient algorithm for solving the model parameters. The algorithm can be implemented easily in a Microsoft EXCEL worksheet. We give a…

  1. Change detection on LOD 2 building models with very high resolution spaceborne stereo imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Rongjun

    2014-10-01

    Due to the fast development of the urban environment, the need for efficient maintenance and updating of 3D building models is ever increasing. Change detection is an essential step to spot the changed area for data (map/3D models) updating and urban monitoring. Traditional methods based on 2D images are no longer suitable for change detection in building scale, owing to the increased spectral variability of the building roofs and larger perspective distortion of the very high resolution (VHR) imagery. Change detection in 3D is increasingly being investigated using airborne laser scanning data or matched Digital Surface Models (DSM), but rare study has been conducted regarding to change detection on 3D city models with VHR images, which is more informative but meanwhile more complicated. This is due to the fact that the 3D models are abstracted geometric representation of the urban reality, while the VHR images record everything. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to detect changes directly on LOD (Level of Detail) 2 building models with VHR spaceborne stereo images from a different date, with particular focus on addressing the special characteristics of the 3D models. In the first step, the 3D building models are projected onto a raster grid, encoded with building object, terrain object, and planar faces. The DSM is extracted from the stereo imagery by hierarchical semi-global matching (SGM). In the second step, a multi-channel change indicator is extracted between the 3D models and stereo images, considering the inherent geometric consistency (IGC), height difference, and texture similarity for each planar face. Each channel of the indicator is then clustered with the Self-organizing Map (SOM), with "change", "non-change" and "uncertain change" status labeled through a voting strategy. The "uncertain changes" are then determined with a Markov Random Field (MRF) analysis considering the geometric relationship between faces. In the third step, buildings are

  2. Increasing market efficiency in the stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jae-Suk; Kwak, Wooseop; Kaizoji, Taisei; Kim, In-Mook

    2008-01-01

    We study the temporal evolutions of three stock markets; Standard and Poor's 500 index, Nikkei 225 Stock Average, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index. We observe that the probability density function of the log-return has a fat tail but the tail index has been increasing continuously in recent years. We have also found that the variance of the autocorrelation function, the scaling exponent of the standard deviation, and the statistical complexity decrease, but that the entropy density increases as time goes over time. We introduce a modified microscopic spin model and simulate the model to confirm such increasing and decreasing tendencies in statistical quantities. These findings indicate that these three stock markets are becoming more efficient.

  3. Modular modeling system for building distributed hydrologic models with a user-friendly software package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wi, S.; Ray, P. A.; Brown, C.

    2015-12-01

    A software package developed to facilitate building distributed hydrologic models in a modular modeling system is presented. The software package provides a user-friendly graphical user interface that eases its practical use in water resources-related research and practice. The modular modeling system organizes the options available to users when assembling models according to the stages of hydrological cycle, such as potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and snow/glacier melting processes. The software is intended to be a comprehensive tool that simplifies the task of developing, calibrating, validating, and using hydrologic models through the inclusion of intelligent automation to minimize user effort, and reduce opportunities for error. Processes so far automated include the definition of system boundaries (i.e., watershed delineation), climate and geographical input generation, and parameter calibration. Built-in post-processing toolkits greatly improve the functionality of the software as a decision support tool for water resources system management and planning. Example post-processing toolkits enable streamflow simulation at ungauged sites with predefined model parameters, and perform climate change risk assessment by means of the decision scaling approach. The software is validated through application to watersheds representing a variety of hydrologic regimes.

  4. Modeling spatial variations of black carbon particles in an urban highway-buildings environment

    PubMed Central

    Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yan; Patel, Molini; Kinney, Patrick; Chrillrud, Steven; Zhang, K. Max

    2011-01-01

    Highway-building environments are prevalent in metropolitan areas. This paper presents our findings in investigating pollutant transport in a highway-building environment by combing field measurement and numerical simulations. We employ and improve the Comprehensive Turbulent Aerosol Dynamics and Gas Chemistry (CTAG) model to simulate the spatial variations of black carbon (BC) concentrations near highway I-87 and an urban school in the South Bronx, New York. The results of CTAG simulations are evaluated against and agree adequately with the measurements of wind speed, wind directions and BC concentrations. Our analysis suggests that the BC concentration at the measurement point of the urban school could decrease by 43–54% if roadside buildings were absent. Furthermore, we characterize two generalized conditions in a highway-building environment, i.e., highway-building canyon and highway viaduct-building. The former refers to the canyon between solid highway embankment and roadside buildings, where the spatial profiles of BC depend on the equivalent canyon aspect ratio and flow recirculation. The latter refers to the area between a highway viaduct (i.e., elevated highway with open space underneath) and roadside buildings, where strong flow recirculation is absent and the spatial profiles of BC are determined by the relative heights of the highway and buildings. The two configurations may occur at different locations or in the same location with different wind directions when highway geometry is complex. Our study demonstrates the importance of incorporating highway-building interaction into the assessment of human exposure to near-road air pollution. It also calls for active roles of building and highway designs in mitigating near-road exposure of urban population. PMID:22084971

  5. Sustainable model building the role of standards and biological semantics.

    PubMed

    Krause, Falko; Schulz, Marvin; Swainston, Neil; Liebermeister, Wolfram

    2011-01-01

    Systems biology models can be reused within new simulation scenarios, as parts of more complex models or as sources of biochemical knowledge. Reusability does not come by itself but has to be ensured while creating a model. Most important, models should be designed to remain valid in different contexts-for example, for different experimental conditions-and be published in a standardized and well-documented form. Creating reusable models is worthwhile, but it requires some efforts when a model is developed, implemented, documented, and published. Minimum requirements for published systems biology models have been formulated by the MIRIAM initiative. Main criteria are completeness of information and documentation, availability of machine-readable models in standard formats, and semantic annotations connecting the model elements with entries in biological Web resources. In this chapter, we discuss the assumptions behind bottom-up modeling; present important standards like MIRIAM, the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), and the Systems Biology Graphical Notation (SBGN); and describe software tools and services for handling semantic annotations. Finally, we show how standards can facilitate the construction of large metabolic network models. PMID:21943907

  6. Modeling carbon dioxide emissions reductions for three commercial reference buildings in Salt Lake City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucich, Stephen M.

    In the United States, the buildings sector is responsible for approximately 40% of the national carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. CO2 is created during the generation of heat and electricity, and has been linked to climate change, acid rain, a variety of health threats, surface water depletion, and the destruction of natural habitats. Building energy modeling is a powerful educational tool that building owners, architects, engineers, city planners, and policy makers can use to make informed decisions. The aim of this thesis is to simulate the reduction in CO2 emissions that may be achieved for three commercial buildings located in Salt Lake City, UT. The following two questions were used to guide this process: 1. How much can a building's annual CO2 emissions be reduced through a specific energy efficiency upgrade or policy? 2. How much can a building's annual CO2 emissions be reduced through the addition of a photovoltaic (PV) array? How large should the array be? Building energy simulations were performed with the Department of Energy's EnergyPlus software, commercial reference building models, and TMY3 weather data. The chosen models were a medium office building, a primary school, and a supermarket. Baseline energy consumption data were simulated for each model in order to identify changes that would have a meaningful impact. Modifications to the buildings construction and operation were considered before a PV array was incorporated. These modifications include (1) an improved building envelope, (2) reduced lighting intensity, and (3) modified HVAC temperature set points. The PV array sizing was optimized using a demand matching approach based on the method of least squares. The arrays tilt angle was optimized using the golden section search algorithm. Combined, energy efficiency upgrades and the PV array reduced building CO2 emissions by 58.6, 54.0, and 52.2% for the medium office, primary school, and supermarket, respectively. However, for these models, it was

  7. Automatic 3d Building Model Generation from LIDAR and Image Data Using Sequential Minimum Bounding Rectangle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, E.; Al-Durgham, M.; Habib, A.

    2012-07-01

    Digital Building Model is an important component in many applications such as city modelling, natural disaster planning, and aftermath evaluation. The importance of accurate and up-to-date building models has been discussed by many researchers, and many different approaches for efficient building model generation have been proposed. They can be categorised according to the data source used, the data processing strategy, and the amount of human interaction. In terms of data source, due to the limitations of using single source data, integration of multi-senor data is desired since it preserves the advantages of the involved datasets. Aerial imagery and LiDAR data are among the commonly combined sources to obtain 3D building models with good vertical accuracy from laser scanning and good planimetric accuracy from aerial images. The most used data processing strategies are data-driven and model-driven ones. Theoretically one can model any shape of buildings using data-driven approaches but practically it leaves the question of how to impose constraints and set the rules during the generation process. Due to the complexity of the implementation of the data-driven approaches, model-based approaches draw the attention of the researchers. However, the major drawback of model-based approaches is that the establishment of representative models involves a manual process that requires human intervention. Therefore, the objective of this research work is to automatically generate building models using the Minimum Bounding Rectangle algorithm and sequentially adjusting them to combine the advantages of image and LiDAR datasets.

  8. Study of Surface Displacements on Tunnelling under Buildings Using 3DEC Numerical Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Rebello, Nalini; Sastry, V. R.

    2014-01-01

    Underground structures at shallow depths are often constructed for metro lines, either in loose or dense layered soils. Tunnelling in urban areas is predominantly under surface structures and on tunnelling, innumerable changes in the form of distortion take place in strata surrounding the tunnel. Extent of displacement/damage to buildings or the tunnel-soil structure interaction depends on the type of building and nature of strata. Effect on displacements has been less studied in granular soils compared to other types of soils like clays. In this paper, parametric studies are conducted to find the displacements at surface, in granular soil conditions, due to varying building storeys and building eccentricities from the tunnel centre line. Effect of presence of geosynthetic layer under footings is further studied. Prior to the parametric studies, validity of the model used is checked with field data available for a stretch of tunnel in South India. Results of simulation studies reveal that inclusion of building reduces displacements at the surface in the dense strata. In very dense strata, the displacements increase as compared to the case without a building. As the centre of the building moves away from the tunnel centre line, settlement above the tunnel matches displacements in the case without building. Applicability of 3DEC software is checked with respect to the present study.

  9. Potential model for single-sided naturally ventilated buildings in China

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Yin; Guo-qiang, Zhang; Jing, Liu; San-xian, Xia; Xiao, Wang

    2010-09-15

    The paper investigates a single-sided naturally ventilated buildings potential model considering number of factors in China. This model can be used to estimate potential of natural ventilation via local climate data and building parameters. The main goal of the model is to predict natural ventilation hours and hourly ventilation flow rate. In fluid model, formula of single-sided natural ventilation by coupling wind pressure and temperature difference was used to calculate air flow rate. Accordingly, the paper analyzed four typical cities in different climate region in China and calculated pressure difference Pascal hours (PDPH). The results show that single-sided ventilation has fewer adaptive comfort hours than two-sided ventilation and much less ventilation volume. This model provided quantitative information for early stage architectural natural ventilation design and building energy efficiency evaluation. (author)

  10. Mental models of a water management system in a green building.

    PubMed

    Kalantzis, Anastasia; Thatcher, Andrew; Sheridan, Craig

    2016-11-01

    This intergroup case study compared users' mental models with an expert design model of a water management system in a green building. The system incorporates a constructed wetland component and a rainwater collection pond that together recycle water for re-use in the building and its surroundings. The sample consisted of five building occupants and the cleaner (6 users) and two experts who were involved with the design of the water management system. Users' mental model descriptions and the experts' design model were derived from in-depth interviews combined with self-constructed (and verified) diagrams. Findings from the study suggest that there is considerable variability in the user mental models that could impact the efficient functioning of the water management system. Recommendations for improvements are discussed. PMID:27126802

  11. 2. General view of stockyards from livestock exchange building showing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. General view of stockyards from livestock exchange building showing (l-r) Buckingham Road, cattle pens, and Stock yards Autopark. View to northeast. - South Omaha Union Stock Yards, 2900 "O" Plaza, Omaha, Douglas County, NE

  12. Bootstrap data methodology for sequential hybrid model building

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Volponi, Allan J. (Inventor); Brotherton, Thomas (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    A method for modeling engine operation comprising the steps of: 1. collecting a first plurality of sensory data, 2. partitioning a flight envelope into a plurality of sub-regions, 3. assigning the first plurality of sensory data into the plurality of sub-regions, 4. generating an empirical model of at least one of the plurality of sub-regions, 5. generating a statistical summary model for at least one of the plurality of sub-regions, 6. collecting an additional plurality of sensory data, 7. partitioning the second plurality of sensory data into the plurality of sub-regions, 8. generating a plurality of pseudo-data using the empirical model, and 9. concatenating the plurality of pseudo-data and the additional plurality of sensory data to generate an updated empirical model and an updated statistical summary model for at least one of the plurality of sub-regions.

  13. Interactive graphical model building using telepresence and virtual reality

    SciTech Connect

    Cooke, C.; Stansfield, S.

    1993-10-01

    This paper presents a prototype system developed at Sandia National Laboratories to create and verify computer-generated graphical models of remote physical environments. The goal of the system is to create an interface between an operator and a computer vision system so that graphical models can be created interactively. Virtual reality and telepresence are used to allow interaction between the operator, computer, and remote environment. A stereo view of the remote environment is produced by two CCD cameras. The cameras are mounted on a three degree-of-freedom platform which is slaved to a mechanically-tracked, stereoscopic viewing device. This gives the operator a sense of immersion in the physical environment. The stereo video is enhanced by overlaying the graphical model onto it. Overlay of the graphical model onto the stereo video allows visual verification of graphical models. Creation of a graphical model is accomplished by allowing the operator to assist the computer in modeling. The operator controls a 3-D cursor to mark objects to be modeled. The computer then automatically extracts positional and geometric information about the object and creates the graphical model.

  14. Combining fractional polynomial model building with multiple imputation

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Tim P.; White, Ian R.; Carpenter, James R.; Stanworth, Simon J.; Royston, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) models are commonly used in medical research. The datasets in which MFP models are applied often contain covariates with missing values. To handle the missing values, we describe methods for combining multiple imputation with MFP modelling, considering in turn three issues: first, how to impute so that the imputation model does not favour certain fractional polynomial (FP) models over others; second, how to estimate the FP exponents in multiply imputed data; and third, how to choose between models of differing complexity. Two imputation methods are outlined for different settings. For model selection, methods based on Wald-type statistics and weighted likelihood-ratio tests are proposed and evaluated in simulation studies. The Wald-based method is very slightly better at estimating FP exponents. Type I error rates are very similar for both methods, although slightly less well controlled than analysis of complete records; however, there is potential for substantial gains in power over the analysis of complete records. We illustrate the two methods in a dataset from five trauma registries for which a prognostic model has previously been published, contrasting the selected models with that obtained by analysing the complete records only. PMID:26095614

  15. Combining fractional polynomial model building with multiple imputation.

    PubMed

    Morris, Tim P; White, Ian R; Carpenter, James R; Stanworth, Simon J; Royston, Patrick

    2015-11-10

    Multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) models are commonly used in medical research. The datasets in which MFP models are applied often contain covariates with missing values. To handle the missing values, we describe methods for combining multiple imputation with MFP modelling, considering in turn three issues: first, how to impute so that the imputation model does not favour certain fractional polynomial (FP) models over others; second, how to estimate the FP exponents in multiply imputed data; and third, how to choose between models of differing complexity. Two imputation methods are outlined for different settings. For model selection, methods based on Wald-type statistics and weighted likelihood-ratio tests are proposed and evaluated in simulation studies. The Wald-based method is very slightly better at estimating FP exponents. Type I error rates are very similar for both methods, although slightly less well controlled than analysis of complete records; however, there is potential for substantial gains in power over the analysis of complete records. We illustrate the two methods in a dataset from five trauma registries for which a prognostic model has previously been published, contrasting the selected models with that obtained by analysing the complete records only. PMID:26095614

  16. Using open building data in the development of exposure data sets for catastrophe risk modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M.

    2016-02-01

    One of the necessary components to perform catastrophe risk modelling is information on the buildings at risk, such as their spatial location, geometry, height, occupancy type and other characteristics. This is commonly referred to as the exposure model or data set. When modelling large areas, developing exposure data sets with the relevant information about every individual building is not practicable. Thus, census data at coarse spatial resolutions are often used as the starting point for the creation of such data sets, after which disaggregation to finer resolutions is carried out using different methods, based on proxies such as the population distribution. While these methods can produce acceptable results, they cannot be considered ideal. Nowadays, the availability of open data is increasing and it is possible to obtain information about buildings for some regions. Although this type of information is usually limited and, therefore, insufficient to generate an exposure data set, it can still be very useful in its elaboration. In this paper, we focus on how open building data can be used to develop a gridded exposure model by disaggregating existing census data at coarser resolutions. Furthermore, we analyse how the selection of the level of spatial resolution can impact the accuracy and precision of the model, and compare the results in terms of affected residential building areas, due to a flood event, between different models.

  17. A PDS Governance Model: Building Collaboration and Accountability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacIsaac, Douglas; Tichenor, Mercedes; Heins, Elizabeth

    This paper describes the evolution of a Professional Development School (PDS) governance model that began with a one-school partnership and moved to a multiple site partnership network. The governance model is based on a union formed between a private university and a local school district. It emphasizes shared decision making and collaborative…

  18. Image-Based Airborne LiDAR Point Cloud Encoding for 3d Building Model Retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yi-Chen; Lin, Chao-Hung

    2016-06-01

    With the development of Web 2.0 and cyber city modeling, an increasing number of 3D models have been available on web-based model-sharing platforms with many applications such as navigation, urban planning, and virtual reality. Based on the concept of data reuse, a 3D model retrieval system is proposed to retrieve building models similar to a user-specified query. The basic idea behind this system is to reuse these existing 3D building models instead of reconstruction from point clouds. To efficiently retrieve models, the models in databases are compactly encoded by using a shape descriptor generally. However, most of the geometric descriptors in related works are applied to polygonal models. In this study, the input query of the model retrieval system is a point cloud acquired by Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) systems because of the efficient scene scanning and spatial information collection. Using Point clouds with sparse, noisy, and incomplete sampling as input queries is more difficult than that by using 3D models. Because that the building roof is more informative than other parts in the airborne LiDAR point cloud, an image-based approach is proposed to encode both point clouds from input queries and 3D models in databases. The main goal of data encoding is that the models in the database and input point clouds can be consistently encoded. Firstly, top-view depth images of buildings are generated to represent the geometry surface of a building roof. Secondly, geometric features are extracted from depth images based on height, edge and plane of building. Finally, descriptors can be extracted by spatial histograms and used in 3D model retrieval system. For data retrieval, the models are retrieved by matching the encoding coefficients of point clouds and building models. In experiments, a database including about 900,000 3D models collected from the Internet is used for evaluation of data retrieval. The results of the proposed method show a clear superiority

  19. Using DOE Commercial Reference Buildings for Simulation Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Field, K.; Deru, M.; Studer, D.

    2010-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy developed 256 EnergyPlus models for use in studies that aim to characterize about 70% of the U.S. commercial building stock. Sixteen building types - including restaurants, health care, schools, offices, supermarkets, retail, lodging, and warehouses - are modeled across 16 cities to represent the diversity of U.S. climate zones. Weighting factors have been developed to combine the models in proportions similar to those of the McGraw-Hill Construction Projects Starts Database for 2003-2007. This paper reviews the development and contents of these models and their applications in simulation studies.

  20. Modeling the effects of urban expansion on natural capital stocks and ecosystem service flows: A case study in the Puget Sound, Washington, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zank, Ben; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Voigt, Brian; Villa, Ferdinando

    2016-01-01

    Urban expansion and its associated landscape modifications are important drivers of changes in ecosystem service (ES). This study examined the effects of two alternative land use-change development scenarios in the Puget Sound region of Washington State on natural capital stocks and ES flows. Land-use change model outputs served as inputs to five ES models developed using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) platform. While natural capital stocks declined under managed (1.3–5.8%) and unmanaged (2.8–11.8%) development scenarios, ES flows increased by 18.5–56% and 23.2–55.7%, respectively. Human development of natural landscapes reduced their capacity for service provision, while simultaneously adding beneficiaries, particularly along the urban fringe. Using global and local Moran’s I, we identified three distinct patterns of change in ES due to projected landuse change. For services with location-dependent beneficiaries – open space proximity, viewsheds, and flood regulation – urbanization led to increased clustering and hot-spot intensities. ES flows were greatest in the managed land-use change scenario for open space proximity and flood regulation, and in the unmanaged land-use change scenario for viewsheds—a consequence of the differing ES flow mechanisms underpinning these services. We observed a third pattern – general declines in service provision – for carbon storage and sediment retention, where beneficiaries in our analysis were not location dependent. Contrary to past authors’ finding of ES declines under urbanization, a more nuanced analysis that maps and quantifies ES provision, beneficiaries, and flows better identifies gains and losses for specific ES beneficiaries as urban areas expand.

  1. Examining the dynamic interactions on volatilities of paired stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jun Shean; Sek, Siok Kun

    2015-02-01

    We conduct empirical analyses to investigate the interaction between volatilities of paired stock markets. The main objective of this study is to reveal possibility of spillover effects among stock markets which can determine the performances of stock returns and trade volumes of stocks. In particular, we seek to investigate if there exist two-way causal relationships on the volatilities in two stock markets in two groups of countries, i.e. between emerging markets of ASEAN-5 and between emerging and advanced countries. Our study is focused in Malaysia stock market and the paired relationship with its neighbouring countries (ASEAN5) and advanced countries (Japan and U.S.) respectively. The multivariate GARCH(1,1) model is applied in studying the interactions on the volatilities of paired stock markets. The results are compared between neighbouring countries and with that of advanced countries. The results are expected to reveal linkages between volatilities of stock markets and the dynamic relationships across markets. The results provide useful information in studying the performances of stock markets and predicting the stock movements by incorporating the external impacts from foreign stock markets.

  2. Modeling the behavior of an earthquake base-isolated building.

    SciTech Connect

    Coveney, V. A.; Jamil, S.; Johnson, D. E.; Kulak, R. F.; Uras, R. A.

    1997-11-26

    Protecting a structure against earthquake excitation by supporting it on laminated elastomeric bearings has become a widely accepted practice. The ability to perform accurate simulation of the system, including FEA of the bearings, would be desirable--especially for key installations. In this paper attempts to model the behavior of elastomeric earthquake bearings are outlined. Attention is focused on modeling highly-filled, low-modulus, high-damping elastomeric isolator systems; comparisons are made between standard triboelastic solid model predictions and test results.

  3. Toric Lego: a method for modular model building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balasubramanian, Vijay; Berglund, Per; García-Etxebarria, Iñaki

    2010-01-01

    Within the context of local type IIB models arising from branes at toric Calabi-Yau singularities, we present a systematic way of joining any number of desired sectors into a consistent theory. The different sectors interact via massive messengers with masses controlled by tunable parameters. We apply this method to a toy model of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) interacting via gauge mediation with a metastable supersymmetry breaking sector and an interacting dark matter sector. We discuss how a mirror procedure can be applied in the type IIA case, allowing us to join certain intersecting brane configurations through massive mediators.

  4. 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of flood impacts on a building and indoor flooding processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gems, Bernhard; Mazzorana, Bruno; Hofer, Thomas; Sturm, Michael; Gabl, Roman; Aufleger, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Given the current challenges in flood risk management and vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to flood hazards, this study presents three-dimensional numerical modelling of torrential floods and its interaction with buildings. By means of a case study application, the FLOW-3D software is applied to the lower reach of the Rio Vallarsa torrent in the village of Laives (Italy). A single-family house on the flood plain is therefore considered in detail. It is exposed to a 300-year flood hydrograph. Different building representation scenarios, including an entire impervious building envelope and the assumption of fully permeable doors, light shafts and windows, are analysed. The modelling results give insight into the flooding process of the building's interior, the impacting hydrodynamic forces on the exterior and interior walls, and further, they quantify the impact of the flooding of a building on the flow field on the surrounding flood plain. The presented study contributes to the development of a comprehensive physics-based vulnerability assessment framework. For pure water floods, this study presents the possibilities and limits of advanced numerical modelling techniques within flood risk management and, thereby, the planning of local structural protection measures.

  5. Transitioning Space Weather Models Into Operations: The Basic Building Blocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araujo-Pradere, Eduardo A.

    2009-10-01

    New and improved space weather models that provide real-time or near-real time operational awareness to the long list of customers that the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) serves are critically needed. Recognizing this, SWPC recently established a Developmental Testbed Center (DTC [see Kumar, 2009]) at which models will be vetted for operational use. What characteristics should models have if they are to survive this transition? The difficulties around the implementation of real-time models are many. From the stability of the data input (frequently coming from third parties) to the elevated information technology (IT) security atmosphere present everywhere, scientists and developers are confronting a series of challenges in the implementation of their models. Quinn et al. [2009] noted that “the transition challenges are numerous and require ongoing interaction between model developers and users.” However, the 2006 Report of the Assessment Committee for the National Space Weather Program (NSWP; see http://www.nswp.gov/nswp_acreport0706.pdf) found that “there is an absence of suitable connection[s] for ‘academia-to-operations’ knowledge transfer and for the transition of research to operations in general.”

  6. A Model for Building School-Family-Community Partnerships: Principles and Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryan, Julia; Henry, Lynette

    2012-01-01

    The extant literature documents the importance of school counselors' roles in school-family-community partnerships, yet no model exists to guide school counselors through the process of building partnerships. The authors propose a model to help school counselors navigate the process and principles of partnerships. They define partnerships; discuss…

  7. The Role of Model Building in Problem Solving and Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Chwee Beng; Jonassen, David; Teo, Timothy

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the effects of the activity of building systems models for school-based problems on problem solving and on conceptual change in elementary science classes. During a unit on the water cycle in an Asian elementary school, students constructed systems models of the water cycle. We found that representing ill-structured problems as…

  8. Conceptual Change in Physical Geography and Environmental Sciences through Mental Model Building: The Example of Groundwater

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reinfried, Sibylle

    2006-01-01

    This research tested the hypothesis that students' erroneous mental models about groundwater will change towards more valid concepts if they are taught on the basis of a mental model-building strategy that focuses on the clarification of students' misconceptions. To examine the hypothesis a quasi-experimental research design was chosen. The…

  9. 3D Building Modeling and Reconstruction using Photometric Satellite and Aerial Imageries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izadi, Mohammad

    In this thesis, the problem of three dimensional (3D) reconstruction of building models using photometric satellite and aerial images is investigated. Here, two systems are pre-sented: 1) 3D building reconstruction using a nadir single-view image, and 2) 3D building reconstruction using slant multiple-view aerial images. The first system detects building rooftops in orthogonal aerial/satellite images using a hierarchical segmentation algorithm and a shadow verification approach. The heights of detected buildings are then estimated using a fuzzy rule-based method, which measures the height of a building by comparing its predicted shadow region with the actual shadow evidence in the image. This system finally generated a KML (Keyhole Markup Language) file as the output, that contains 3D models of detected buildings. The second system uses the geolocation information of a scene containing a building of interest and uploads all slant-view images that contain this scene from an input image dataset. These images are then searched automatically to choose image pairs with different views of the scene (north, east, south and west) based on the geolocation and auxiliary data accompanying the input data (metadata that describes the acquisition parameters at the capture time). The camera parameters corresponding to these images are refined using a novel point matching algorithm. Next, the system independently reconstructs 3D flat surfaces that are visible in each view using an iterative algorithm. 3D surfaces generated for all views are combined, and redundant surfaces are removed to create a complete set of 3D surfaces. Finally, the combined 3D surfaces are connected together to generate a more complete 3D model. For the experimental results, both presented systems are evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively and different aspects of the two systems including accuracy, stability, and execution time are discussed.

  10. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, M.; Whitmire, A.; Sandoval, L.; Leveton, L.; Arias, D.

    2011-01-01

    In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

  11. Modeling Planet-Building Stellar Disks with Radiative Transfer Code

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swearingen, Jeremy R.; Sitko, Michael L.; Whitney, Barbara; Grady, Carol A.; Wagner, Kevin Robert; Champney, Elizabeth H.; Johnson, Alexa N.; Warren, Chelsea C.; Russell, Ray W.; Hammel, Heidi B.; Lisse, Casey M.; Cure, Michel; Kraus, Stefan; Fukagawa, Misato; Calvet, Nuria; Espaillat, Catherine; Monnier, John D.; Millan-Gabet, Rafael; Wilner, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the nature of the many planetary systems found outside of our own solar system cannot be completed without knowledge of the beginnings these systems. By detecting planets in very young systems and modeling the disks of material around stars from which they form, we can gain a better understanding of planetary origin and evolution. The efforts presented here have been in modeling two pre-transitional disk systems using a radiative transfer code. With the first of these systems, V1247 Ori, a model that fits the spectral energy distribution (SED) well and whose parameters are consistent with existing interferometry data (Kraus et al 2013) has been achieved. The second of these two systems, SAO 206462, has presented a different set of challenges but encouraging SED agreement between the model and known data gives hope that the model can produce images that can be used in future interferometry work. This work was supported by NASA ADAP grant NNX09AC73G, and the IR&D program at The Aerospace Corporation.

  12. Canyon building ventilation system dynamic model -- Parameters and validation

    SciTech Connect

    Moncrief, B.R. ); Chen, F.F.K. )

    1993-01-01

    Plant system simulation crosses many disciplines. At the core is the mimic of key components in the form of mathematical models.'' These component models are functionally integrated to represent the plant. With today's low cost high capacity computers, the whole plant can be truly and effectively reproduced in a computer model. Dynamic simulation has its roots in single loop'' design, which is still a common objective in the employment of simulation. The other common objectives are the ability to preview plant operation, to anticipate problem areas, and to test the impact of design options. As plant system complexity increases and our ability to simulate the entire plant grows, the objective to optimize plant system design becomes practical. This shift in objectives from problem avoidance to total optimization by far offers the most rewarding potential. Even a small reduction in bulk materials and space can sufficiently justify the application of this technology. Furthermore, to realize an optimal plant starts from a tight and disciplined design. We believe the assurance required to execute such a design strategy can partly be derived from a plant model. This paper reports on the application of a dynamic model to evaluate the capacity of an existing production plant ventilation system. This study met the practical objectives of capacity evaluation under present and future conditions, and under normal and accidental situations. More importantly, the description of this application, in its methods and its utility, aims to validate the technology of dynamic simulation in the environment of plant system design and safe operation.

  13. Building an Open Source Framework for Integrated Catchment Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jagers, B.; Meijers, E.; Villars, M.

    2015-12-01

    In order to develop effective strategies and associated policies for environmental management, we need to understand the dynamics of the natural system as a whole and the human role therein. This understanding is gained by comparing our mental model of the world with observations from the field. However, to properly understand the system we should look at dynamics of water, sediments, water quality, and ecology throughout the whole system from catchment to coast both at the surface and in the subsurface. Numerical models are indispensable in helping us understand the interactions of the overall system, but we need to be able to update and adjust them to improve our understanding and test our hypotheses. To support researchers around the world with this challenging task we started a few years ago with the development of a new open source modeling environment DeltaShell that integrates distributed hydrological models with 1D, 2D, and 3D hydraulic models including generic components for the tracking of sediment, water quality, and ecological quantities throughout the hydrological cycle composed of the aforementioned components. The open source approach combined with a modular approach based on open standards, which allow for easy adjustment and expansion as demands and knowledge grow, provides an ideal starting point for addressing challenging integrated environmental questions.

  14. Building v/s Exploring Models: Comparing Learning of Evolutionary Processes through Agent-based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagh, Aditi

    Two strands of work motivate the three studies in this dissertation. Evolutionary change can be viewed as a computational complex system in which a small set of rules operating at the individual level result in different population level outcomes under different conditions. Extensive research has documented students' difficulties with learning about evolutionary change (Rosengren et al., 2012), particularly in terms of levels slippage (Wilensky & Resnick, 1999). Second, though building and using computational models is becoming increasingly common in K-12 science education, we know little about how these two modalities compare. This dissertation adopts agent-based modeling as a representational system to compare these modalities in the conceptual context of micro-evolutionary processes. Drawing on interviews, Study 1 examines middle-school students' productive ways of reasoning about micro-evolutionary processes to find that the specific framing of traits plays a key role in whether slippage explanations are cued. Study 2, which was conducted in 2 schools with about 150 students, forms the crux of the dissertation. It compares learning processes and outcomes when students build their own models or explore a pre-built model. Analysis of Camtasia videos of student pairs reveals that builders' and explorers' ways of accessing rules, and sense-making of observed trends are of a different character. Builders notice rules through available blocks-based primitives, often bypassing their enactment while explorers attend to rules primarily through the enactment. Moreover, builders' sense-making of observed trends is more rule-driven while explorers' is more enactment-driven. Pre and posttests reveal that builders manifest a greater facility with accessing rules, providing explanations manifesting targeted assembly. Explorers use rules to construct explanations manifesting non-targeted assembly. Interviews reveal varying degrees of shifts away from slippage in both

  15. D 3 -Brane Model Building and the Supertrace Rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bena, Iosif; Graña, Mariana; Kuperstein, Stanislav; Ntokos, Praxitelis; Petrini, Michela

    2016-04-01

    A common way to obtain standard-model-like Lagrangians in string theory is to place D 3 -branes inside flux compactifications. The bosonic and fermionic masses and couplings of the resulting gauge theory are determined by the ten-dimensional metric and the fluxes, respectively, and the breaking of supersymmetry is soft. However, not any soft-supersymmetry-breaking Lagrangian can be obtained this way since the string theory equations of motion impose certain relations between the soft couplings. We show that for D 3 -branes in background fluxes, these relations imply that the sums of the squares of the boson and of the fermion masses are equal and that, furthermore, one- and two-loop quantum corrections do not spoil this equality. This makes the use of D 3 -branes for constructing computationally controllable models for physics beyond the standard model problematic.

  16. Using data mining techniques for building fusion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhongfei; Salerno, John J.; Regan, Maureen A.; Cutler, Debra A.

    2003-03-01

    Over the past decade many techniques have been developed which attempt to predict possible events through the use of given models or patterns of activity. These techniques work quite well given the case that one has a model or a valid representation of activity. However, in reality for the majority of the time this is not the case. Models that do exist, in many cases were hand crafted, required many man-hours to develop and they are very brittle in the dynamic world in which we live. Data mining techniques have shown some promise in providing a set of solutions. In this paper we will provide the details for our motivation, theory and techniques which we have developed, as well as the results of a set of experiments.

  17. Building Hybrid Rover Models for NASA: Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willeke, Thomas; Dearden, Richard

    2004-01-01

    Particle filters have recently become popular for diagnosis and monitoring of hybrid systems. In this paper we describe our experiences using particle filters on a real diagnosis problem, the NASA Ames Research Center's K-9 rover. As well as the challenge of modelling the dynamics of the system, there are two major issues in applying a particle filter to such a model. The first is the asynchronous nature of the system-observations from different subsystems arrive at different rates, and occasionally out of order, leading to large amounts of uncertainty in the state of the system. The second issue is data interpretation. The particle filter produces a probability distribution over the state of the system, from which summary statistics that can be used for control or higher-level diagnosis must be extracted. We describe our approaches to both these problems, as well as other modelling issues that arose in this domain.

  18. D3-Brane Model Building and the Supertrace Rule.

    PubMed

    Bena, Iosif; Graña, Mariana; Kuperstein, Stanislav; Ntokos, Praxitelis; Petrini, Michela

    2016-04-01

    A common way to obtain standard-model-like Lagrangians in string theory is to place D3-branes inside flux compactifications. The bosonic and fermionic masses and couplings of the resulting gauge theory are determined by the ten-dimensional metric and the fluxes, respectively, and the breaking of supersymmetry is soft. However, not any soft-supersymmetry-breaking Lagrangian can be obtained this way since the string theory equations of motion impose certain relations between the soft couplings. We show that for D3-branes in background fluxes, these relations imply that the sums of the squares of the boson and of the fermion masses are equal and that, furthermore, one- and two-loop quantum corrections do not spoil this equality. This makes the use of D3-branes for constructing computationally controllable models for physics beyond the standard model problematic. PMID:27104696

  19. A caveat on building nonlocal models of cosmology

    SciTech Connect

    Tsamis, N.C.; Woodard, R.P. E-mail: woodard@phys.ufl.edu

    2014-09-01

    Nonlocal models of cosmology might derive from graviton loop corrections to the effective field equations from the epoch of primordial inflation. Although the Schwinger-Keldysh formalism would automatically produce causal and conserved effective field equations, the models so far proposed have been purely phenomenological. Two techniques have been employed to generate causal and conserved field equations: either varying an invariant nonlocal effective action and then enforcing causality by the ad hoc replacement of any advanced Green's function with its retarded counterpart, or else introducing causal nonlocality into a general ansatz for the field equations and then enforcing conservation. We point out here that the two techniques access very different classes of models, and that neither one of them may represent what would actually arise from fundamental theory.

  20. Object-Based Integration of Photogrammetric and LiDAR Data for Automated Generation of Complex Polyhedral Building Models

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Changjae; Habib, Ayman

    2009-01-01

    This research is concerned with a methodology for automated generation of polyhedral building models for complex structures, whose rooftops are bounded by straight lines. The process starts by utilizing LiDAR data for building hypothesis generation and derivation of individual planar patches constituting building rooftops. Initial boundaries of these patches are then refined through the integration of LiDAR and photogrammetric data and hierarchical processing of the planar patches. Building models for complex structures are finally produced using the refined boundaries. The performance of the developed methodology is evaluated through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the generated building models from real data. PMID:22346722

  1. Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arias, Diana; Orr, Martin; Whitmire, Alexandra; Leveton, Lauren; Sandoval, Luis

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To establish the need for a shared definitional model of long duration human spaceflight, that would provide a framework and vision to facilitate communication, research and practice In 1956, on the eve of human space travel, Hubertus Strughold first proposed a "simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight" that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Here we describe our preliminary findings and outline potential approaches for the future development of a definition and broader classification system

  2. 3D-model building of the jaw impression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, Moumen T.; Yamany, Sameh M.; Hemayed, Elsayed E.; Farag, Aly A.

    1997-03-01

    A novel approach is proposed to obtain a record of the patient's occlusion using computer vision. Data acquisition is obtained using intra-oral video cameras. The technique utilizes shape from shading to extract 3D information from 2D views of the jaw, and a novel technique for 3D data registration using genetic algorithms. The resulting 3D model can be used for diagnosis, treatment planning, and implant purposes. The overall purpose of this research is to develop a model-based vision system for orthodontics to replace traditional approaches. This system will be flexible, accurate, and will reduce the cost of orthodontic treatments.

  3. How to Build a Course in Mathematical-Biological Modeling: Content and Processes for Knowledge and Skill

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoskinson, Anne-Marie

    2010-01-01

    Biological problems in the twenty-first century are complex and require mathematical insight, often resulting in mathematical models of biological systems. Building mathematical-biological models requires cooperation among biologists and mathematicians, and mastery of building models. A new course in mathematical modeling presented the opportunity…

  4. Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and building energy optimization through model predictive control (MPC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woldekidan, Korbaga

    This dissertation aims at developing a novel and systematic approach to apply Model Predictive Control (MPC) to improve energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality in office buildings. Model predictive control is one of the advanced optimal control approaches that use models to predict the behavior of the process beyond the current time to optimize the system operation at the present time. In building system, MPC helps to exploit buildings' thermal storage capacity and to use the information on future disturbances like weather and internal heat gains to estimate optimal control inputs ahead of time. In this research the major challenges of applying MPC to building systems are addressed. A systematic framework has been developed for ease of implementation. New methods are proposed to develop simple and yet reasonably accurate models that can minimize the MPC development effort as well as computational time. The developed MPC is used to control a detailed building model represented by whole building performance simulation tool, EnergyPlus. A co-simulation strategy is used to communicate the MPC control developed in Matlab platform with the case building model in EnergyPlus. The co-simulation tool used (MLE+) also has the ability to talk to actual building management systems that support the BACnet communication protocol which makes it easy to implement the developed MPC control in actual buildings. A building that features an integrated lighting and window control and HVAC system with a dedicated outdoor air system and ceiling radiant panels was used as a case building. Though this study is specifically focused on the case building, the framework developed can be applied to any building type. The performance of the developed MPC was compared against a baseline control strategy using Proportional Integral and Derivative (PID) control. Various conventional and advanced thermal comfort as well as ventilation strategies were considered for the comparison. These

  5. Building on crossvalidation for increasing the quality of geostatistical modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olea, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    The random function is a mathematical model commonly used in the assessment of uncertainty associated with a spatially correlated attribute that has been partially sampled. There are multiple algorithms for modeling such random functions, all sharing the requirement of specifying various parameters that have critical influence on the results. The importance of finding ways to compare the methods and setting parameters to obtain results that better model uncertainty has increased as these algorithms have grown in number and complexity. Crossvalidation has been used in spatial statistics, mostly in kriging, for the analysis of mean square errors. An appeal of this approach is its ability to work with the same empirical sample available for running the algorithms. This paper goes beyond checking estimates by formulating a function sensitive to conditional bias. Under ideal conditions, such function turns into a straight line, which can be used as a reference for preparing measures of performance. Applied to kriging, deviations from the ideal line provide sensitivity to the semivariogram lacking in crossvalidation of kriging errors and are more sensitive to conditional bias than analyses of errors. In terms of stochastic simulation, in addition to finding better parameters, the deviations allow comparison of the realizations resulting from the applications of different methods. Examples show improvements of about 30% in the deviations and approximately 10% in the square root of mean square errors between reasonable starting modelling and the solutions according to the new criteria. ?? 2011 US Government.

  6. A Collegial Model for Building Effective School Leadership.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kline, William

    In fall 1984, the Jefferson Parish (Louisiana) School Board established a Principals' Instructional Leadership Development Project to focus on the correlates of effective schools and develop a project designed to improve principals' leadership characteristics. This paper describes the two-year project, which developed a model emphasizing…

  7. Building Bridges between Neuroscience, Cognition and Education with Predictive Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stringer, Steve; Tommerdahl, Jodi

    2015-01-01

    As the field of Mind, Brain, and Education seeks new ways to credibly bridge the gap between neuroscience, the cognitive sciences, and education, various connections are being developed and tested. This article presents a framework and offers examples of one approach, predictive modeling within a virtual educational system that can include…

  8. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  9. Building toy models of proteins using coevolutionary information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ryan; Raghunathan, Mohit; Onuchic, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Recent developments in global statistical methodologies have advanced the analysis of large collections of protein sequences for coevolutionary information. Coevolution between amino acids in a protein arises from compensatory mutations that are needed to maintain the stability or function of a protein over the course of evolution. This gives rise to quantifiable correlations between amino acid positions within the multiple sequence alignment of a protein family. Here, we use Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA) to infer a Potts model Hamiltonian governing the correlated mutations in a protein family to obtain the sequence-dependent interaction energies of a toy protein model. We demonstrate that this methodology predicts residue-residue interaction energies that are consistent with experimental mutational changes in protein stabilities as well as other computational methodologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate with several examples that DCA could be used to construct a structure-based model that quantitatively agrees with experimental data on folding mechanisms. This work serves as a potential framework for generating models of proteins that are enriched by evolutionary data that can potentially be used to engineer key functional motions and interactions in protein systems. This research has been supported by the NSF INSPIRE award MCB-1241332 and by the CTBP sponsored by the NSF (Grant PHY-1427654).

  10. Assessing Graduate Attributes: Building a Criteria-Based Competency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ipperciel, Donald; ElAtia, Samira

    2014-01-01

    Graduate attributes (GAs) have become a necessary framework of reference for the 21st century competency-based model of higher education. However, the issue of evaluating and assessing GAs still remains unchartered territory. In this article, we present a criteria-based method of assessment that allows for an institution-wide comparison of the…

  11. Model-Driven Design: Systematically Building Integrated Blended Learning Experiences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laster, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Developing and delivering curricula that are integrated and that use blended learning techniques requires a highly orchestrated design. While institutions have demonstrated the ability to design complex curricula on an ad-hoc basis, these projects are generally successful at a great human and capital cost. Model-driven design provides a…

  12. Beyond the Model: Building an Effective and Dynamic IT Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, Jeffrey; Harriger, Alka; Mendonca, John

    2006-01-01

    A model curriculum, such as that developed by the ACM/SIGITE Curriculum Committee (2005), has two important functions. First, it provides a base structure for newly developing programs that can use it as a platform for articulating a curriculum. Second, it offers an existing curriculum framework that can be used for validation by existing…

  13. Building a Data Based Model for Senior Adult Basic Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtenay, Bradley C.; And Others

    Research shows that developing a curriculum model for senior adult education requires consideration of at least four important factors: (1) the heterogeneous nature of the senior adult population; (2) their specific information and interest needs; (3) the specific nature of the learning activities; and (4) the specific barriers and facilitators…

  14. Policy Building--An Extension to User Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yudelson, Michael V.; Brunskill, Emma

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we combine a logistic regression student model with an exercise selection procedure. As opposed to the body of prior work on strategies for selecting practice opportunities, we are working on an assumption of a finite amount of opportunities to teach the student. Our goal is to prescribe activities that would maximize the amount…

  15. Building a Model Explaining the Social Nature of Online Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, I-Chun; Kim, Bosung; Liu, Pei-Ju; Goggins, Sean P.; Kumalasari, Christiana; Laffey, James M.

    2008-01-01

    Based on a framework emphasizing the social nature of learning, this research examines a model of how social constructs affect satisfaction within online learning using path analysis for students in higher education. The social constructs evaluated in this study include sense of community (SOC), social ability (SA), perceived ease of use (PEU) and…

  16. Building Mathematics Achievement Models in Four Countries Using TIMSS 2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Ze; Osterlind, Steven J.; Bergin, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Using the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2003 data, this study built mathematics achievement models of 8th graders in four countries: the USA, Russia, Singapore and South Africa. These 4 countries represent the full spectrum of mathematics achievement. In addition, they represent 4 continents, and they include 2 countries…

  17. Using a model and forecasted weather to predict forage and livestock production for making stocking decisions in the coming growing season

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Forecasting peak standing crop (PSC) for the coming grazing season can help ranchers make appropriate stocking decisions to reduce enterprise risks. Previously developed PSC predictors were based on short-term experimental data (<15 yr) and limited stocking rates (SR) without including the effect of...

  18. Canyon building ventilation system dynamic model -- Parameters and validation

    SciTech Connect

    Moncrief, B.R.; Chen, F.F.K.

    1993-02-01

    Plant system simulation crosses many disciplines. At the core is the mimic of key components in the form of mathematical ``models.`` These component models are functionally integrated to represent the plant. With today`s low cost high capacity computers, the whole plant can be truly and effectively reproduced in a computer model. Dynamic simulation has its roots in ``single loop`` design, which is still a common objective in the employment of simulation. The other common objectives are the ability to preview plant operation, to anticipate problem areas, and to test the impact of design options. As plant system complexity increases and our ability to simulate the entire plant grows, the objective to optimize plant system design becomes practical. This shift in objectives from problem avoidance to total optimization by far offers the most rewarding potential. Even a small reduction in bulk materials and space can sufficiently justify the application of this technology. Furthermore, to realize an optimal plant starts from a tight and disciplined design. We believe the assurance required to execute such a design strategy can partly be derived from a plant model. This paper reports on the application of a dynamic model to evaluate the capacity of an existing production plant ventilation system. This study met the practical objectives of capacity evaluation under present and future conditions, and under normal and accidental situations. More importantly, the description of this application, in its methods and its utility, aims to validate the technology of dynamic simulation in the environment of plant system design and safe operation.

  19. Aggregation of LoD 1 building models as an optimization problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guercke, R.; Götzelmann, T.; Brenner, C.; Sester, M.

    3D city models offered by digital map providers typically consist of several thousands or even millions of individual buildings. Those buildings are usually generated in an automated fashion from high resolution cadastral and remote sensing data and can be very detailed. However, not in every application such a high degree of detail is desirable. One way to remove complexity is to aggregate individual buildings, simplify the ground plan and assign an appropriate average building height. This task is computationally complex because it includes the combinatorial optimization problem of determining which subset of the original set of buildings should best be aggregated to meet the demands of an application. In this article, we introduce approaches to express different aspects of the aggregation of LoD 1 building models in the form of Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) problems. The advantage of this approach is that for linear (and some quadratic) MIP problems, sophisticated software exists to find exact solutions (global optima) with reasonable effort. We also propose two different heuristic approaches based on the region growing strategy and evaluate their potential for optimization by comparing their performance to a MIP-based approach.

  20. Performance and modeling of amorphous silicon photovoltaics for building-integrated applications

    SciTech Connect

    Kroposki, B.; Hansen, R.

    1999-07-01

    Amorphous silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules offer several advantages for building-integrated applications. The material can be deposited on glass or flexible substrates, which allows for products like roofing shingles and integrated PV/building glass. The material also has a uniform surface, which is ideal for many architectural applications. Amorphous silicon modules perform well in warm weather and have a small temperature coefficient for power. Depending on the building load, this may be beneficial when compared to crystalline systems. At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the authors are monitoring the performance of a triple-junction a-Si system. The system consists of 72 roofing shingles mounted directly to simulated roofing structures. This paper examines the performance of the building-integrated amorphous silicon PV system and applicability for covering residential loads. A simple model of system performance is also developed and is presented.