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Sample records for california earthquake probabilities

  1. An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ???6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ???6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ???6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP (2002).

  2. Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2008-01-01

    The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

  3. California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Bryant, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

  4. Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2007-01-01

    Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

  5. California earthquake history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, T.; Branum, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the advancement in our knowledge of California's earthquake history since ??? 1800, and especially during the last 30 years. We first review the basic statewide research on earthquake occurrences that was published from 1928 through 2002, to show how the current catalogs and their levels of completeness have evolved with time. Then we review some of the significant new results in specific regions of California, and some of what remains to be done. Since 1850, 167 potentially damaging earthquakes of M ??? 6 or larger have been identified in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of 1.1 such events per year. Table I lists the earthquakes of M ??? 6 to 6.5 that were also destructive since 1812 in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of one such event every ??? 5 years. Many of these occurred before 1932 when epicenters and magnitudes started to be determined routinely using seismographs in California. The number of these early earthquakes is probably incomplete in sparsely populated remote parts of California before ??? 1870. For example, 6 of the 7 pre-1873 events in table I are of M ??? 7, suggesting that other earthquakes of M 6.5 to 6.9 occurred but were not properly identified, or were not destructive. The epicenters and magnitudes (M) of the pre-instrumental earthquakes were determined from isoseismal maps that were based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity of shaking (MMI) at the communities that reported feeling the earthquakes. The epicenters were estimated to be in the regions of most intense shaking, and values of M were estimated from the extent of the areas shaken at various MMI levels. MMI VII or greater shaking is the threshold of damage to weak buildings. Certain areas in the regions of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Eureka were each shaken repeatedly at MMI VII or greater at least six times since ??? 1812, as depicted by Toppozada and Branum (2002, fig. 19).

  6. Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Ned; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

  7. Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J., II; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

    2002-01-01

    We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

  8. WGCEP Historical California Earthquake Catalog

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, Karen R.; Cao, Tianqing

    2008-01-01

    This appendix provides an earthquake catalog for California and the surrounding area. Our goal is to provide a listing for all known M > 5.5 earthquakes that occurred from 1850-1932 and all known M > 4.0 earthquakes that occurred from 1932-2006 within the region of 31.0 to 43.0 degrees North and -126.0 to -114.0 degrees West. Some pre-1932 earthquakes 4 5, before the Northern California network was online. Some earthquakes from 1900-1932, and particularly from 1910-1932 are also based on instrumental readings, but the quality of the instrumental record and the resulting analysis are much less precise than for later listings. A partial exception is for some of the largest earthquakes, such as the San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906, for which global teleseismic records (Wald et al. 1993) and geodetic measurements (Thatcher et al. 1906) have been used to help determine magnitudes.

  9. Earthquake research needed in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Peter M.

    According to an analysis by a group of seismologists and tectonophysicists from the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University and the Seismological Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, there is an imperative need for extensive studies of the San Andreas fault system throughout its extent within the state of California. Although there is considerable controversy surrounding the question of which segment of the San Andreas system may produce the next earthquake, C.B. Raleigh, K. Sieh, L.R. Sykes, and D.L. Anderson report that it is conceivable that the entire fault in southern California could rupture at once. (Science, Sept. 17, 1982).The fears that a major earthquake may occur at anytime in southern California are based on numerous statistical factors underlying the idea that The longer it's been since the last big one, the sooner the next one will be. The timing of earthquakes along active seismic zones, particularly those that coincide with plate boundaries, seems to be directly related to the amount of displacement generated since the last such earthquake at the same location. For example, the recurrence rate of about 150 years for great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault in southern California and the displacement rate of about 3 cm per year for the segment of the last earthquake from Cholame Valley to Cajon Pass in 1857 suggest that the next such large event may occur in the near future. On this basis Raleigh et al. (Science, sup.) conclude that Both observations mark the San Andreas fault north and east of Los Angeles as a mature seismic gap and the prime candidate for producing southern California's next great earthquake. The expected consequences are described as appalling and as having a potential for severe losses of life and property from such a great earthquake The worst case, cited in a report issued by the National Security Council through the Federal Emergency Management Administration in 1980 for an earthquake magnitude of M=7.5 in southern California near Long Beach, could cause the loss of 20,000 lives and $69 billion in property damages.

  10. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M?4.95 earthquakes in 0.1נ0.1 cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M?4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M=7.2, April 4, 2010, El MayorCucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most successful in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  11. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ? 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1 0.1 cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ? 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  12. Earthquake probabilities: theoretical assessments and reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    It is of common knowledge that earthquakes are complex phenomena which classification and sizing remain serious problems of the contemporary seismology. In general, their frequency-magnitude distribution exhibit power law scaling. This scaling differs significantly when different time and/or space domains are considered. At the scale of a particular earthquake rupture zone the frequency of similar size events is usually estimated to be about once in several hundred years. Evidently, contemporary seismology does not possess enough reported instrumental data for any reliable quantification of an earthquake probability at a given place of expected event. Regretfully, most of the state-of-the-art theoretical approaches to assess probability of seismic events are based on trivial (e.g. Poisson, periodic, etc) or, conversely, delicately-designed (e.g. STEP, ETAS, etc) models of earthquake sequences. Some of these models are evidently erroneous, some can be rejected by the existing statistics, and some are hardly testable in our life-time. Nevertheless such probabilistic counts including seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting when used on practice eventually mislead to scientifically groundless advices communicated to decision makers and inappropriate decisions. As a result, the population of seismic regions continues facing unexpected risk and losses. The international project Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard, mainly probabilistic, methodology to assess seismic hazard. It is generally accepted that earthquakes are infrequent, low-probability events. However, they keep occurring at earthquake-prone areas with 100% certainty. Given the expectation of seismic event once per hundred years, the daily probability of occurrence on a certain date may range from 0 to 100% depending on a choice of probability space (which is yet unknown and, therefore, made by a subjective lucky chance). How many days are needed to distinguish 0 from the average probability of 0.000027? Is it theoretically admissible to apply average when seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, are evidently clustered in time and space displaying behaviors that are far from independent? Is it possible to ignore possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform distribution in space when mapping seismic probability density away from the empirical earthquake locus embedded onto the boundaries of the lithosphere blocks? These are simple questions to those who advocate the existing probabilistic products for seismic hazard assessment and forecasting. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to deterministic pattern recognition approaches applied to available geological evidences, specifically, when intending to predict predictable, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding by modeling the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades.

  13. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California.

    PubMed

    Gerstenberger, Matthew C; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucile M; Reasenberg, Paul A

    2005-05-19

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media. PMID:15902254

  14. Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shebalin, Peter N.; Narteau, Clément; Zechar, Jeremy Douglas; Holschneider, Matthias

    2014-12-01

    We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.

  15. The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Lindh, A G

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment. PMID:17739363

  16. Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

    1998-01-01

    For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

  17. Probability based earthquake load and resistance factor design criteria for offshore platforms

    SciTech Connect

    Bea, R.G.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes a probability reliability based formulation to determine earthquake Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) parameters for conventional, steel, pile supported, tubular membered platforms that is proposed as a basis for earthquake design criteria and guidelines for offshore platforms that are intended to have worldwide applicability. The formulation is illustrated with application to platforms located in five areas: offshore California, Venezuela (Rio Caribe), the East Coast of Canada, in the Caspian Sea (Azeri), and the Norwegian sector of the North Sea.

  18. A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, William L.; Matthews, Mark V.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Nishenko, Stuart P.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Simpson, Robert W.

    1999-01-01

    A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, μ, and the aperiodicity of the mean, α (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of α = 0.5. For this value of α, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > μ⁄2, and is ~ ~ 2 ⁄ μ for all times > μ. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

  19. California earthquakes: why only shallow focus?

    PubMed

    Brace, W F; Byerlee, J D

    1970-06-26

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California. PMID:17759338

  20. California earthquakes: Why only shallow focus?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brace, W.F.; Byerlee, J.D.

    1970-01-01

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California.

  1. Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Li, Hsien-Chi

    2016-01-01

    We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwan—the western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regions—using 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model.

  2. Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Li, Hsien-Chi

    2015-01-01

    We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwanthe western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regionsusing 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model.

  3. Time?dependent renewal?model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exceeds ~20% of the mean recurrence interval. We also derive probabilities for the case in which the last event is further constrained to have occurred before historical record keeping began (the historic open interval), which can only serve to increase earthquake probabilities for typically applied renewal models.We conclude that accounting for the historic open interval can improve long-term earthquake rupture forecasts for California and elsewhere.

  4. Effect of 2008 and 2014 Yutian earthquake on earthquake probabilities to other faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Boyan

    2015-04-01

    Static stress changes have been proposed to explain variations of seismicity rates, off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes. Based on the rate-and-state dependent frictional law[1], combined with the seismicity analysis before and after 2008 Yutian earthquake, we have quantitatively calculated the probability of earthquake occurrences nearby, and explained the probable causes of 2014 Yutian earthquake. The probabilities of occurrence a M7.0 earthquake on the eastern segments of Kengxiwar fault, which is the Seismogenic fault of 2014 Yutian earthquake, increases from 3.3% in 2008 to 5.83% in 2014. The probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake increase from 23.9% to 38.6% and from 42% to 62.3%, respectively. In addition, we have also computed the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of Gonggacuo fault, and the central segments of Kengxiwar fault, where the Coulomb stress also changed after 2008 Yutian earthquake. The earthquake probabilities of central segments of Gonggacuo and Kengxiwar fault decreased after the 2008 Yutian earthquake, while the earthquake probabilities of southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault increased. After the 2014 Yutian earthquake, the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of Gonggacuo fault increased, but the central segments of Kengxiwar fault decreased. This result indicates that slight variations in Coulomb stress changes can cause the seismic risk changes of the faults nearby. It needs about 500 years that the probabilities of occurrence a M7.0 earthquake exceed to 95% of the three faults we mentioned above. The destructive earthquakes are likely to occur in the southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault, with 26 years and 0.8 years the probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake exceed to 95%, respectively. While the seismicity of the central segments of Kengxiwar fault is low; it needs about 87 years and 54 years that the probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake exceed to 95% respectively.

  5. Infrasonic observations of the Northridge, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Mutschlecner, J.P.; Whitaker, R.W.

    1994-09-01

    Infrasonic waves from the Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994 were observed at the St. George, Utah, infrasound array of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The distance to the epicenter was 543 kilometers. The signal shows a complex character with many peaks and a long duration. An interpretation is given in terms of several modes of signal propagation and generation including a seismic-acoustic secondary source mechanism. A number of signals from aftershocks are also observed.

  6. The 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Clark, M.M.; Cockerham, R.S.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Lindh, A.G.; Prescott, W.H.; Shakal, A.F.; Spudich, P.

    1984-01-01

    The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone.

  7. Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Cao, T.; Aki, K.

    1983-03-10

    We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

  8. Earthquake Simulations and Historical Patterns of Events: Forecasting the Next Great Earthquake in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, M. K.; Rundle, J. B.; Heien, E. M.; Turcotte, D. L.; Yikilmaz, M.; Kellogg, L. H.

    2013-12-01

    The fault system in California combined with some of the United States most densely populated regions is a recipe for devastation. It has been estimated that a repeat of the 1906 m=7.8 San Francisco earthquake could cause as much as $84 billion in damage. Earthquake forecasting can help alleviate the effects of these events by targeting disaster relief and preparedness in regions that will need it the most. However, accurate earthquake forecasting has proven difficult. We present a forecasting technique that uses simulated earthquake catalogs generated by Virtual California and patterns of historical events. As background, we also describe internal details of the Virtual California earthquake simulator.

  9. Operational earthquake forecasting in California: A prototype system combining UCERF3 and CyberShake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.; Field, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about time-dependent earthquake probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To attain this goal, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazardground motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilitiesin concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. We have combined the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., 2014) with the CyberShake ground-motion model of the Southern California Earthquake Center (Graves et al., 2011; Callaghan et al., this meeting) into a prototype OEF system for generating time-dependent hazard maps. UCERF3 represents future earthquake activity in terms of fault-rupture probabilities, incorporating both Reid-type renewal models and Omori-type clustering models. The current CyberShake model comprises approximately 415,000 earthquake rupture variations to represent the conditional probability of future shaking at 285 geographic sites in the Los Angeles region (~236 million horizontal-component seismograms). This combination provides significant probability gains relative to OEF models based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), primarily because the physics-based CyberShake simulations account for the rupture directivity, basin effects, and directivity-basin coupling that are not represented by the GMPEs.

  10. A new procedure modeling the probability distribution of earthquake size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. P.; Yun, X.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-11-01

    The probability distribution of earthquake size is needed as input data for some earthquake analyses. A common procedure is to calibrate the so-called b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and to use it as the best-estimate model parameter in an algorithm to simulate the observed earthquake-size distribution. This paper introduces a new procedure for such a simulation, on the basis of performing optimization to search for the optimum model parameter. The new option and an existing method are then both utilized to model the earthquake-size distribution around Taiwan since 1978. Owing to the nature and the power of optimization, three case studies presented in this paper all indicate that the new optimization procedure can indeed improve such a simulation over the existing procedure. Moreover, with a proper tool such as Excel Solver, practicing the new method to model the observed earthquake-size distribution is as effortless as using the existing procedure.

  11. Bayesian probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Longmenshan fault system (China)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying; Zhang, Keyin; Gan, Qigang; Zhou, Wen; Xiong, Liang; Zhang, Shihua; Liu, Chao

    2015-01-01

    China has a long history of earthquake records, and the Longmenshan fault system (LFS) is a famous earthquake zone. We believed that the LFS could be divided into three seismogenic zones (north, central, and south zones) based on the geological structures and the earthquake catalog. We applied the Bayesian probability method using extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the seismic hazard in the LFS. The seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate, and magnitude were considered as the basic parameters for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates were then updated in terms of Bayes' theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in the LFS. Generally speaking, the north zone seemingly is quite peaceful compared with the central and south zones. The central zone is the most dangerous; however, the periodicity of earthquake occurrences for M s = 8.0 is quite long (1,250 to 5,000 years). The selection of upper bound probable magnitude influences the result, and the upper bound magnitude of the south zone maybe 7.5. We obtained the empirical relationship of magnitude conversion for M s and ML, the values of the magnitude of completeness Mc (3.5), and the Gutenberg-Richter b value before applying the Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences method.

  12. Foreshock probabilities in the western Basin and Range/eastern California region

    SciTech Connect

    Savage, M.K.; Depolo, D. . Seismological Lab.)

    1993-04-01

    The authors quantify foreshock occurrence probabilities in the eastern California/Western Nevada region by applying the empirical technique of Jones (1985) to the University of Nevada, Reno western Nevada-eastern California catalog from 1934 through 1991. The authors found it necessary to separate the Mammoth/Mono Lakes region from the rest of the catalog to determine the parameters that most effectively removed the aftershocks from the catalog. Contrary to previous suggestions, most of the Basin and Range does not appear to have more foreshocks than southern California region. The probability that an M[>=] earthquake will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km is 10% in the Mammoth/Mono region and 6% in the Nevada region, and appears to be independent of the magnitude of the proposed foreshock. The probability that a mainshock at least one magnitude unit higher will occur decreases to about 2% in each region. These probabilities imply that the occurrence of an earthquake of M[>=]4.0 increases the possibility of damaging earthquake of M[>=]5.0. by several order of magnitude above the low background probability. Most mainshocks occur within a few hours after a possible foreshock, and the probability that a mainshock will still occur decreases logarithmically with time after the proposed foreshock. These properties are similar to those in southern California and in other parts of the world, with the exception that the Mammoth/Mono region, a volcanic area, exhibits more swarm-like behavior than does the southern California or Nevada region.

  13. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

  14. Detection of hydrothermal precursors to large northern california earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Silver, P G; Valette-Silver, N J

    1992-09-01

    During the period 1973 to 1991 the interval between eruptions from a periodic geyser in Northern California exhibited precursory variations 1 to 3 days before the three largest earthquakes within a 250-kilometer radius of the geyser. These include the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 18 October 1989 for which a similar preseismic signal was recorded by a strainmeter located halfway between the geyser and the earthquake. These data show that at least some earthquakes possess observable precursors, one of the prerequisites for successful earthquake prediction. All three earthquakes were further than 130 kilometers from the geyser, suggesting that precursors might be more easily found around rather than within the ultimate rupture zone of large California earthquakes. PMID:17738277

  15. Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (19702010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

  16. A post-Tohoku earthquake review of earthquake probabilities in the Southern Kanto District, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, Paul G.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake generated an aftershock sequence that affected a large part of northern Honshu, and has given rise to widely divergent forecasts of changes in earthquake occurrence probabilities in northern Honshu. The objective of this review is to assess these forecasts as they relate to potential changes in the occurrence probabilities of damaging earthquakes in the Kanto Region. It is generally agreed that the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake increased the stress on faults in the southern Kanto district. Toda and Stein (Geophys Res Lett 686, 40: doi:10.1002, 2013) further conclude that the probability of earthquakes in the Kanto Corridor has increased by a factor of 2.5 for the time period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018 in the Kanto Corridor. Estimates of earthquake probabilities in a wider region of the Southern Kanto District by Nanjo et al. (Geophys J Int, doi:10.1093, 2013) indicate that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant in this larger region. Uchida et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 374: 81-91, 2013) conclude that the Philippine Sea plate the extends well north of the northern margin of Tokyo Bay, inconsistent with the Kanto Fragment hypothesis of Toda et al. (Nat Geosci, 1:1-6,2008), which attributes deep earthquakes in this region, which they term the Kanto Corridor, to a broken fragment of the Pacific plate. The results of Uchida and Matsuzawa (J Geophys Res 115:B07309, 2013)support the conclusion that fault creep in southern Kanto may be slowly relaxing the stress increase caused by the Tohoku earthquake without causing more large earthquakes. Stress transfer calculations indicate a large stress transfer to the Off Boso Segment as a result of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, Ozawa et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B07404, 2012) used onshore GPS measurements to infer large post-Tohoku creep on the plate interface in the Off-Boso region, and Uchida and Matsuzawa (ibid.) measured similar large creep off the Boso Peninsula. Thus some of the large stress transfer may be undergoing aseismic release, consistent with pre-Tohoku geodetic data, so a large earthquake on the Off Boso segment may have a low probability.

  17. Earthquake preparedness levels amongst youth and adults in Oakland, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burris, M.; Arroyo-Ruiz, D.; Crockett, C.; Dixon, G.; Jones, M.; Lei, P.; Phillips, B.; Romero, D.; Scott, M.; Spears, D.; Tate, L.; Whitlock, J.; Diaz, J.; Chagolla, R.

    2011-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has not experienced a large earthquake since 1989. However research shows that the Hayward fault is overdue for a tremor, based on paleo-seismic research. To analyze the level of earthquake preparedness in the Oakland area (close to the Hayward fault), we surveyed over 150 people to assess their understanding of earthquakes. Our research evaluates whether increased earthquake knowledge impacts people's preparedness and concern toward earthquake events. Data was collected using smart-phone technology and survey software in four sites across Oakland including; North Oakland, Downtown, East Oakland, and a summer school program in East Oakland, which has youth from throughout the city. Preliminary studies show that over 60% of interviewees have sufficient earthquake knowledge, but that over half of all interviewees are not prepared for a seismic event. Our study shows that in Oakland, California earthquake preparedness levels vary, which could mean we need to develop more ways to disseminate information on earthquake preparedness.

  18. The magnitude distribution of declustered earthquakes in Southern California.

    PubMed

    Knopoff, L

    2000-10-24

    The binned distribution densities of magnitudes in both the complete and the declustered catalogs of earthquakes in the Southern California region have two significantly different branches with crossover magnitude near M = 4.8. In the case of declustered earthquakes, the b-values on the two branches differ significantly from each other by a factor of about two. The absence of self-similarity across a broad range of magnitudes in the distribution of declustered earthquakes is an argument against the application of an assumption of scale-independence to models of main-shock earthquake occurrence, and in turn to the use of such models to justify the assertion that earthquakes are unpredictable. The presumption of scale-independence for complete local earthquake catalogs is attributable, not to a universal process of self-organization leading to future large earthquakes, but to the universality of the process that produces aftershocks, which dominate complete catalogs. PMID:11035770

  19. Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, ?-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the ?-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the ?-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc values for different ?-values. For magnitude larger than 8.5, the turbidite data are consistent with all three TGR models. For smaller magnitudes, the TGR models predict a higher rate than the paleoseismic data show. The discrepancy can be attributed to uncertainties in the paleoseismic magnitudes, the potential incompleteness of the paleoseismic record for smaller events, or temporal variations of the seismicity. Nevertheless, our results show that for this zone, earthquake of m 8.80.2 are expected over a 500-year period, m 9.00.2 are expected over a 1000-year period, and m 9.30.2 are expected over a 10,000-year period.

  20. Loma Prieta earthquake, October 17, 1989, Santa Cruz County, California

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, S.

    1990-01-01

    On Tuesday, October 17, 1989 at 5:04 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault 10 miles northeast of Santa Cruz. This earthquake was the largest earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay area since 1906, and the largest anywhere in California since 1952. The earthquake was responsible for 67 deaths and about 7 billion dollars worth of damage, making it the biggest dollar loss natural disaster in United States history. This article describes the seismological features of the earthquake, and briefly outlines a number of other geologic observations made during study of the earthquake, its aftershocks, and its effects. Much of the information in this article was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

  1. Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities.

    PubMed

    Porter, Keith; Ramer, Kyle

    2012-01-01

    Fault trees have long been used to estimate failure risk in earthquakes, especially for nuclear power plants (NPPs). One interesting application is that one can assess and manage the probability that two facilities - a primary and backup - would be simultaneously rendered inoperative in a single earthquake. Another is that one can calculate the probabilistic time required to restore a facility to functionality, and the probability that, during any given planning period, the facility would be rendered inoperative for any specified duration. A large new peer-reviewed library of component damageability and repair-time data for the first time enables fault trees to be used to calculate the seismic risk of operational failure and downtime for a wide variety of buildings other than NPPs. With the new library, seismic risk of both the failure probability and probabilistic downtime can be assessed and managed, considering the facility's unique combination of structural and non-structural components, their seismic installation conditions, and the other systems on which the facility relies. An example is offered of real computer data centres operated by a California utility. The fault trees were created and tested in collaboration with utility operators, and the failure probability and downtime results validated in several ways. PMID:22576139

  2. Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, M.D.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Hanks, T.C.

    2000-01-01

    We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the standard CDMG-USGS model by less than 10% across most of California but is higher (generally about 10% to 30%) within 20 km from some faults.

  3. Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Hough, Susan E.

    2008-07-08

    The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

  4. Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, Susan E.

    2008-07-01

    The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts—and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

  5. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  6. Historic Ground Failures in Northern California Triggered by Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Youd, T. Leslie; Hoose, Seena N.

    1978-01-01

    A major source of earthquake-related damage and casualties in northern California has been ground failures generated by the seismic shaking, including landslides, lateral spreads, ground settlement, and surface cracks. The historical record shows that, except for offshore shocks, the geographic area affected and the quantity and general severity of ground failures increase markedly with Richter magnitude. Hence, the largest historical event, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, has been the most important generator of ground failures. Because of recent population growth and land development in northern California, the potential for damage in future events is enormous compared with that existing in 1906. Reports of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and other northern California earthquakes and descriptions of ground failures therein are used to (1) identify and clarify the types of ground failures associated with earthquakes, (2) provide a guide for engineers, planners, and others responsible for minimizing seismic hazards, and (3) form a data base for other geotechnical studies of earthquake-triggered pound failures. Geologic, hydrologic, and topographic setting have an important influence on ground failure development as well as distance from the causative fault. Areas especially vulnerable to ground failure in northern California have been oversteepened slopes, such as mountain cliffs, streambanks, and coastal bluffs, and lowland deposits, principally Holocene fluvial deposits, deltaic deposits, and poorly compacted fills. Liquefaction has been the direct cause of most lowland failures. The historical record suggests that ground failures during future large earthquakes are most likely to occur at the same or geologically similar locations as failures during previous earhquakes.

  7. Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.; Abercrombie, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    Statistics of earthquakes in California show linear frequency-magnitude relationships in the range of M2.0 to M5.5 for various data sets. Assuming Gutenberg-Richter distributions, there is a systematic decrease in b value with increasing depth of earthquakes. We find consistent results for various data sets from northern and southern California that both include and exclude the larger aftershock sequences. We suggest that at shallow depth (???0 to 6 km) conditions with more heterogeneous material properties and lower lithospheric stress prevail. Rupture initiations are more likely to stop before growing into large earthquakes, producing relatively more smaller earthquakes and consequently higher b values. These ideas help to explain the depth-dependent observations of foreshocks in the western United States. The higher occurrence rate of foreshocks preceding shallow earthquakes can be interpreted in terms of rupture initiations that are stopped before growing into the mainshock. At greater depth (9-15 km), any rupture initiation is more likely to continue growing into a larger event, so there are fewer foreshocks. If one assumes that frequency-magnitude statistics can be used to estimate probabilities of a small rupture initiation growing into a larger earthquake, then a small (M2) rupture initiation at 9 to 12 km depth is 18 times more likely to grow into a M5.5 or larger event, compared to the same small rupture initiation at 0 to 3 km. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Dynamics of liquefaction during the 1987 Superstition Hills, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Youd, T.L.; Hanks, T.C.

    1989-01-01

    Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value.

  9. Search for seismic forerunners to earthquakes in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Robinson, R.; Bufe, C.G.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Pfluke, J.H.; Steppe, J.A.; Seekins, L.C.

    1977-01-01

    The relatively high seismicity of the San Andreas fault zone in central California provides an excellent opportunity to search for seismic forerunners to moderate earthquakes. Analysis of seismic traveltime and earthquake location data has resulted in the identification of two possible seismic forerunners. The first is a period of apparently late (0.3 sec) P-wave arrival times lasting several weeks preceding one earthquake of magnitude 5.0. The rays for these travel paths passed through - or very close to - the aftershock volume of the subsequent earthquake. The sources for these P-arrival time data were earthquakes in the distance range 20-70 km. Uncertainties in the influence of small changes in the hypocenters of the source earthquakes and in the identification of small P-arrivals raise the possibility that the apparantly delayed arrivals are not the result of a decrease in P-velocity. The second possible precursor is an apparent increase in the average depth of earthquakes preceding two moderate earthquakes. This change might be only apparent, caused by a location bias introduced by a decrease in P-wave velocity, but numerical modeling for realistic possible changes in velocity suggests that the observed effect is more likely a true migration of earthquakes. To carry out this work - involving the manipulation of several thousand earthquake hypocenters and several hundred thousand readings of arrival time - a system of data storage was designed and manipulation programs for a large digital computer have been executed. This system allows, for example, the automatic selection of earthquakes from a specific region, the extraction of all the observed arrival times for these events, and their relocation under a chosen set of assumptions. ?? 1977.

  10. Very-long-period volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.; Dawson, P.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Pitt, A.M.; Biasi, G.; Smith, K.

    2002-01-01

    Detection of three very-long-period (VLP) volcanic earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain emphasizes that magmatic processes continue to be active beneath this young, eastern California volcano. These VLP earthquakes, which occured in October 1996 and July and August 2000, appear as bell-shaped pulses with durations of one to two minutes on a nearby borehole dilatometer and on the displacement seismogram from a nearby broadband seismometer. They are accompanied by rapid-fire sequences of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes and several long- period (LP) volcanic earthquakes. The limited VLP data are consistent with a CLVD source at a depth of ???3 km beneath the summit, which we interpret as resulting from a slug of fluid (CO2- saturated magmatic brine or perhaps basaltic magma) moving into a crack.

  11. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1994-01-01

    If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

  12. Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

  13. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain (~320 events), and Long Valley Caldera (~40 events). LP earthquakes are notably absent under Mount Shasta. With the exception of Long Valley Caldera where LP earthquakes occur at depths of ?5 km, hypocenters are generally between 15-25 km. The rates of LP occurrence over the last decade have been relatively steady within the study areas, except at Mammoth Mountain, where years of gradually declining LP activity abruptly increased after a swarm of unusually deep (20 km) VT earthquakes in October 2012. Epicenter locations relative to the sites of most recent volcanism vary across volcanic centers, but most LP earthquakes fall within 10 km of young vents. Source models for LP earthquakes often involve the resonance of fluid-filled cracks or nonlinear flow of fluids along irregular cracks (reviewed in Chouet and Matoza, 2013, JVGR). At mid-crustal depths the relevant fluids are likely to be low-viscosity basaltic melt and/or exsolved CO2-rich volatiles (Lassen, Clear Lake, Mammoth Mountain). In the shallow crust, however, hydrothermal waters/gases are likely involved in the generation of LP seismicity (Long Valley Caldera).

  14. In the shadow of 1857-the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    1996-01-01

    The great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake is the largest earthquake to have hit southern California during the historic period. We investigated if seismicity patterns following 1857 could be due to static stress changes generated by the 1857 earthquake. When post-1857 earthquakes with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned strike-slip mechanisms with strike and rake determined by the nearest active fault, 13 of the 13 southern California M???5.5 earthquakes between 1857 and 1907 were encouraged by the 1857 rupture. When post-1857 earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned reverse mechanisms and all other events were assumed strike-slip, 11 of the 13 earthquakes were encouraged by the 1857 earthquake. These results show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity patterns. The correlation disappears around 1907, suggesting that tectonic loading began to overwhelm the effect of the 1857 earthquake early in the 20th century.

  15. Automatic 3D Moment tensor inversions for southern California earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Q.; Tape, C.; Friberg, P.; Tromp, J.

    2008-12-01

    We present a new source mechanism (moment-tensor and depth) catalog for about 150 recent southern California earthquakes with Mw ? 3.5. We carefully select the initial solutions from a few available earthquake catalogs as well as our own preliminary 3D moment tensor inversion results. We pick useful data windows by assessing the quality of fits between the data and synthetics using an automatic windowing package FLEXWIN (Maggi et al 2008). We compute the source Frchet derivatives of moment-tensor elements and depth for a recent 3D southern California velocity model inverted based upon finite-frequency event kernels calculated by the adjoint methods and a nonlinear conjugate gradient technique with subspace preconditioning (Tape et al 2008). We then invert for the source mechanisms and event depths based upon the techniques introduced by Liu et al 2005. We assess the quality of this new catalog, as well as the other existing ones, by computing the 3D synthetics for the updated 3D southern California model. We also plan to implement the moment-tensor inversion methods to automatically determine the source mechanisms for earthquakes with Mw ? 3.5 in southern California.

  16. Crustal deformation in Great California Earthquake cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

    1987-01-01

    A model in which coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model is proposed for computation of the periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike-slip earthquakes. The model is found to provide a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading than do simpler kinematic models. Parameters are chosen to model the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas ruptures, and predictions are found to be consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces. Results indicate that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps the crust-mantle transition zone.

  17. Deterministic Earthquake Hazard Assessment by Public Agencies in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, L.

    2005-12-01

    Even in its short recorded history, California has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes that have resulted in new codes and other legislation for public safety. In particular, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake produced some of the most lasting results such as the Hospital Safety Act, the Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, the Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zone Act, and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans') fault-based deterministic seismic hazard (DSH) map. The latter product provides values for earthquake ground motions based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs), defined as the largest earthquakes that can reasonably be expected on faults in the current tectonic regime. For surface fault rupture displacement hazards, detailed study of the same faults apply. Originally, hospital, dam, and other critical facilities used seismic design criteria based on deterministic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA). However, probabilistic methods grew and took hold by introducing earthquake design criteria based on time factors and quantifying "uncertainties", by procedures such as logic trees. These probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) ignored the DSH approach. Some agencies were influenced to adopt only the PSHA method. However, deficiencies in the PSHA method are becoming recognized, and the use of the method is now becoming a focus of strong debate. Caltrans is in the process of producing the fourth edition of its DSH map. The reason for preferring the DSH method is that Caltrans believes it is more realistic than the probabilistic method for assessing earthquake hazards that may affect critical facilities, and is the best available method for insuring public safety. Its time-invariant values help to produce robust design criteria that are soundly based on physical evidence. And it is the method for which there is the least opportunity for unwelcome surprises.

  18. Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Summer Internship Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benthien, M. L.; Perry, S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    For the eleventh consecutive year, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) coordinated undergraduate research experiences in summer 2004, allowing 35 students with a broad array of backgrounds and interests to work with the world's preeminent earthquake scientists and specialists. Students participate in interdisciplinary, system-level earthquake science and information technology research, and several group activities throughout the summer. Funding for student stipends and activities is made possible by the NSF Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program. SCEC coordinates two intern programs: The SCEC Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SCEC/SURE) and the SCEC Undergraduate Summer in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/USEIT). SCEC/SURE interns work one-on-one with SCEC scientists at their institutions on a variety of earthquake science research projects. The goals of the program are to expand student participation in the earth sciences and related disciplines, encourage students to consider careers in research and education, and to increase diversity of students and researchers in the earth sciences. 13 students participated in this program in 2004. SCEC/USEIT is an NSF REU site that brings undergraduate students from across the country to the University of Southern California each summer. SCEC/USEIT interns interact in a team-oriented research environment and are mentored by some of the nation's most distinguished geoscience and computer science researchers. The goals of the program are to allow undergraduates to use advanced tools of information technology to solve problems in earthquake research; close the gap between computer science and geoscience; and engage non-geoscience majors in the application of earth science to the practical problems of reducing earthquake risk. SCEC/USEIT summer research goals are structured around a grand challenge problem in earthquake information technology. For the past three years the students have developed a new earthquake and fault visualization platform named "LA3D." 22 students participated in this program in 2004. SCEC Interns come together several times during the summer, beginning with a Communication Workshop that develops the student's oral and written communication skills. In mid-summer, a one-day SCEC Intern Colloquium is held, where student researchers present status reports on their research, followed by a three-day field trip of southern California geology and SCEC research locations. Finally, at the end of the summer each student presents a poster at the SCEC Annual Meeting.

  19. Tidal stress triggering of earthquakes in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucholc, Magda; Steacy, Sandy

    2016-02-01

    We analyse the influence of the solid Earth tides and ocean loading on the occurrence time of Southern California earthquakes. For each earthquake, we calculate tidal Coulomb failure stress and stress rate on a fault plane that is assumed to be controlled by the orientation of the adjacent fault. To reduce bias when selecting data for testing the tide-earthquake relationship, we create four earthquake catalogs containing events within 1, 1.5, 2.5, and 5 km of nearest faults. We investigate the difference in seismicity rates at times of positive and negative tidal stresses/stress rates given three different cases. We consider seismicity rates during times of positive versus negative stress and stress rate, as well as 2 and 3 hours surrounding the local tidal stress extremes. We find that tidal influence on earthquake occurrence is found to be statistically non-random only in close proximity to tidal extremes meaning that magnitude of tidal stress plays an important role in tidal triggering. A non-random tidal signal is observed for the reverse events. Along with a significant increase in earthquake rates around tidal Coulomb stress maxima, the strength of tidal correlation is found to be closely related to the amplitude of the peak tidal Coulomb stress (τp). The most effective tidal triggering is found for τp ≥ 1 kPa which is much smaller than thresholds suggested for static and dynamic triggering of aftershocks.

  20. MOHO ORIENTATION BENEATH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE TRAVEL TIMES.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppenheimer, David H.; Eaton, Jerry P.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines relative Pn arrival times, recorded by the U. S. Geological Survey seismic network in central and northern California from an azimuthally distributed set of regional earthquakes. Improved estimates are presented of upper mantle velocities in the Coast Ranges, Great Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills and estimates of the orientation of the Moho throughout this region. Finally, the azimuthal distribution of apparent velocities, corrected for dip and individual station travel time effects, is then studied for evidence of upper mantle velocity anisotropy and for indications of lower crustal structure in central California.

  1. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

  2. Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Roth, R.J., Jr.; Petersen, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  3. Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kenny J. Ryan; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby

    2015-01-01

    The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

  4. Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, Kenny J.; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; Oglesby, David D.

    2015-08-01

    The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

  5. Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and in preparing emergency response plans. The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ?6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group of California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping (NSHM) Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault to the east of the study area. Earthquake scenarios are intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. They are not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquakes possible. Earthquake scenarios are both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider them in regional emergency response plans. Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM).For the Hilton Creek Fault, two alternative scenarios were developed in addition to the NSHM scenario to account for different opinions in how far north the fault extends into the Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice: USGS deterministic seismic hazard analysis program and three Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation (NGA) models. Ground motion calculations incorporated the potential amplification of seismic shaking by near-surface soils defined by a map of the average shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (VS30) developed by CGS. In addition to ground shaking, earthquakes cause ground failure, which can cause severe damage to buildings and lifelines. Ground failure includes surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and seismically induced landslides. For each earthquake scenario, potential surface fault displacements are estimated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Liquefaction occurs when saturated sediments lose their strength because of ground shaking. Zones of potential liquefaction are mapped by incorporating areas where loose sandy sediments, shallow groundwater, and strong earthquake shaking coincide in the earthquake scenario. The process for defining zones of potential landslide and rockfall incorporates rock strength, surface slope, existing landslides, with ground motions caused by the earthquake scenario. Each scenario is illustrated with maps of seismic shaking potential and fault displacement, liquefaction, and landslide potential. Seismic shaking is depicted by the distribution of shaking intensity, peak ground acceleration, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration. One-second spectral acceleration correlates well with structural damage to surface facilities. Acceleration greater than 0.2 g is often associated with strong to violent perceived ground shaking and may cause moderate to heavy damage. The extent of strong shaking is influenced by subsurface fault dip and near surface materials. Strong shaking is more widespread in the hanging wall regions of a normal fault. Larger ground motions also occur where young alluvial sediments amplify the shaking. Both of these effects can lead to strong shaking that extends farther from the fault on the valley side than on the hill side. The effect of fault rupture displacements may be localized along the s

  6. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 73 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 42 percent. It is not surprising that the earlier surveys showed increases as several strong earthquakes occurred in the area between 1992 and 1995 and there was considerable media attention. But the 2001 survey, seven years after the last widely felt event, still shows significant increases in almost all preparedness indicators. The 1995 CDMG scenario was not the sole reason for the increased interest in earthquake and tsunami hazards in the area, but the scenario gave government recognition to an event that was previously only considered seriously in the scientific community and has acted as a catalyst for mitigation and planning efforts.

  7. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, David K., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.

  8. Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be aftershocks if they are located within a characteristic distance from the mainshock. This distance is usually taken to be one or two times the length of the fault rupture associated with the mainshock. For example, if the mainshock ruptured a 100 km length of a fault, subsequent earthquakes up to 100-200 km away from the mainshock rupture would be considered aftershocks. The fault rupture length was approximately 15 km in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 430 km in the great 1906 earthquake.

  9. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  10. A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. P.; Xu, Y.

    2015-10-01

    From theory to experience, earthquake probability associated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with time since the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquake assessment motivated/derived from the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is introduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the new model can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between two characteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and the algorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explain and validate the new model. On the condition of best-estimate model parameters, the example calculation shows a 7.6 % probability for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan to induce a major earthquake in years 2015-2025, and if the earthquake does not occur by 2025, the earthquake probability will increase to 8 % in 2025-2035, which validates the new model that can calculate non-stationary earthquake probability as it should vary with time.

  11. Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M. (Principal Investigator); Silverstein, J.

    1972-01-01

    The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

  12. ERTS Applications in earthquake research and mineral exploration in California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M.; Silverstein, J.

    1973-01-01

    Examples that ERTS imagery can be effectively utilized to identify, locate, and map faults which show geomorphic evidence of geologically recent breakage are presented. Several important faults not previously known have been identified. By plotting epicenters of historic earthquakes in parts of California, Sonora, Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, we found that areas known for historic seismicity are often characterized by abundant evidence of recent fault and crustal movements. There are many examples of seismically quiet areas where outstanding evidence of recent fault movements is observed. One application is clear: ERTS-1 imagery could be effectively utilized to delineate areas susceptible to earthquake recurrence which, on the basis of seismic data alone, may be misleadingly considered safe. ERTS data can also be utilized in planning new sites in the geophysical network of fault movement monitoring and strain and tilt measurements.

  13. Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, David; Jos M., Mogolln; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

    2014-05-01

    Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments creating pathways for free gas to migrate from a shallow reservoir within the gas hydrate stability zone into the water column. Our results imply that free hydrocarbon gas trapped beneath a local gas hydrate seal was mobilized through earthquake-induced mechanical failure and in that way circumvented carbon sequestration within the sediment. These findings lead to conclude that hydrocarbon seepage triggered by earthquakes can play a role for carbon budgets at other seismically active continental margins. The newly identified process presented in our study is conceivable to help interpret data from similar sites. Reference: Fischer, D., Mogollon, J.M., Strasser, M., Pape, T., Bohrmann, G., Fekete, N., Spie, V. and Kasten, S., 2013. Subduction zone earthquake as potential trigger of submarine hydrocarbon seepage. Nature Geoscience 6: 647-651.

  14. Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2013-01-01

    The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike?slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right?lateral strike?slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non?planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike?slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the PacificNorth America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.46.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the HosgriShoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.27.5.

  15. Rupture directivity of moderate earthquakes in northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seekins, Linda C.; Boatwright, John

    2010-01-01

    We invert peak ground velocity and acceleration (PGV and PGA) to estimate rupture direction and rupture velocity for 47 moderate earthquakes (3.5?M?5.4) in northern California. We correct sets of PGAs and PGVs recorded at stations less than 55125 km, depending on source depth, for site amplification and sourcereceiver distance, then fit the residual peak motions to the unilateral directivity function of Ben-Menahem (1961). We independently invert PGA and PGV. The rupture direction can be determined using as few as seven peak motions if the station distribution is sufficient. The rupture velocity is unstable, however, if there are no takeoff angles within 30 of the rupture direction. Rupture velocities are generally subsonic (0.5?0.9?); for stability, we limit the rupture velocity at v=0.92?, the Rayleigh wave speed. For 73 of 94 inversions, the rupture direction clearly identifies one of the nodal planes as the fault plane. The 35 strike-slip earthquakes have rupture directions that range from nearly horizontal (6 events) to directly updip (5 events); the other 24 rupture partly along strike and partly updip. Two strike-slip earthquakes rupture updip in one inversion and downdip in the other. All but 1 of the 11 thrust earthquakes rupture predominantly updip. We compare the rupture directions for 10 M?4.0 earthquakes to the relative location of the mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks. Spatial distributions of 8 of 10 aftershock sequences agree well with the rupture directivity calculated for the mainshock.

  16. Probability of a given-magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, S. A.; Dinske, C.; Kummerow, J.

    2007-11-01

    Fluid injections in geothermic and hydrocarbon reservoirs induce small earthquakes (-3 < M < 2). Occasionally, however, earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M ~ 4) occur. We investigate magnitude distributions and show that for a constant injection pressure the probability to induce an earthquake with a magnitude larger than a given value increases with injection time corresponding to a bi-logarithmical law with a proportionality coefficient close to one. We find that the process of pressure diffusion in a poroelastic medium with randomly distributed sub-critical cracks obeying a Gutenberg-Richter relation well explains our observations. The magnitude distribution is mainly inherited from the statistics of pre-existing fracture systems. The number of earthquakes greater than a given magnitude also increases with the strength of the injection source and the tectonic activity of the injection site. Our formulation provides a way to estimate expected magnitudes of induced earthquakes. It can be used to avoid significant earthquakes by correspondingly planning fluid injections.

  17. The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

    2015-01-01

    The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnituderupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey Did You Feel It? (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.36.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.36.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

  18. Helium soil-gas variations associated with recent central California earthquakes: precursor or coincidence?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1981-01-01

    Decreases in the helium concentration of soil-gas have been observed to precede six of eight recent central California earthquakes. Ten monitoring stations were established near Hollister, California and along the San Andreas Fault to permit gas collection. The data showed decreases occurring a few weeks before the earthquakes and concentratiosn returned to prequake levels either shortly before or after the earthquakes.-Author

  19. Virtual California: Earthquake Statistics, Surface Deformation Patterns, Surface Gravity Changes and InSAR Interferograms for Arbitrary Fault Geometries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, K.; Sachs, M. K.; Heien, E. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Fernandez, J.; Turcotte, D.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    With the ever increasing number of geodetic monitoring satellites, it is vital to have a variety of geophysical numerical simulators to produce sample/model datasets. Just as hurricane forecasts are derived from the consensus among multiple atmospheric models, earthquake forecasts cannot be derived from a single comprehensive model. Here we present the functionality of Virtual California, a numerical simulator that can generate sample surface deformations, surface gravity changes, and InSAR interferograms in addition to producing earthquake statistics and forecasts.Virtual California is a boundary element code designed to explore the seismicity of today's fault systems. For arbitrary input fault geometry, Virtual California can output simulated seismic histories of 50,000 years or more. Using co-seismic slips from the output data, we generate surface deformation maps, surface gravity change maps, and InSAR interferograms as viewed by an orbiting satellite. Furthermore, using the times between successive earthquakes we generate probability distributions and earthquake forecasts.Virtual California is now supported by the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics. The source code is available for download and it comes with a users' manual. The manual includes instructions on how to generate fault models from scratch, how to deploy the simulator across a parallel computing environment, etc.http://geodynamics.org/cig/software/vc/

  20. Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

  1. Response of desert pavement to seismic shaking, Hector Mine earthquake, California, 1999

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haff, P. K.

    2005-06-01

    The October 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake in the Mojave Desert, California, generated characteristic surface disturbances on nearby desert pavements. These disturbances included (1) zones of wholesale gravel displacement interspersed with zones of intact pavement, (2) displaced and rotated cobbles, (3) moats around loosened, embedded boulders, (4) filling of abandoned cobble sockets, boulder moats, and other depressions with gravel, and (5) formation of narrow, subparallel, linear strips of exposed fine-grained subpavement matrix (matrix lineations). Clasts displaced from matrix lineations and from cobble sockets tended to move downslope. Sharp boundaries of matrix lineations and slope-controlled displacement directions on slopes of only a few degrees indicated that clasts remained close to the pavement surface during shaking. The regular, few decimeter spacing of matrix lineations suggests the presence of standing waves during seismic shaking. Boulder moats probably have good preservation potential and, at some desert pavement locations, might provide information on paleoseismic shaking. Although readily produced by coseismic shaking, displaced cobbles are unreliable indicators of past earthquake activity because of potential multiple origins. For an assumed earthquake recurrence interval of 10 ka, seismically driven sediment fluxes similar to those generated by the Hector Mine earthquake at the Lavic Siding pavement study site may be marginally competitive with aseismic smoothing mechanisms driven by bioturbation, rainbeat, and wash. For a 1 ka recurrence interval, seismic smoothing is likely to play a significant role in pavement evolution.

  2. Earthquake early warning in California: Evaluating Hardware and Software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellweg, M.; Allen, R.; Boese, M.; Brown, H.; Cua, G.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Jordan, T.; Khainovski, O.; Maechling, P.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Solanki, K.; Zeleznik, M.

    2008-12-01

    Three earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms are currently being evaluated within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) with support from the US Geological Survey. The evaluation encompasses two aspects: their operation using data from throughout the state under real time conditions, and assessment of their alerts at a web-accessible testing center. An EEW system rapidly detects the initiation of earthquakes and predicts their ground shaking. Its purpose is to provide warning of potentially damaging ground motion in a target region before the strong shaking arrives. One of the three algorithms implemented at the CISN data centers uses a single station, or 'On-site' approach (Caltech). The other two, 'ElarmS' (UC Berkeley) and 'Virtual Seismologist' (VS, Caltech/ETH), are network-based. Although single station alerts can be delivered more quickly than those from a network-based system, more of them tend to be false warnings. Network-based algorithms for EEW require that data be gathered at a central site for joint processing. The two network-based systems, ElarmS and VS, run 15 s behind real time in order to gather ~90% of station data before processing. The EEW alert testing center was developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Results from the various algorithms are collected automatically. Automatically generated performance summaries allow the comparison of the EEW alerts with each other and with earthquakes within the region. Performance criteria include promptness of the alert, earthquake location and magnitude. Provisions have also been made to assess false alerts, ground motion predictions and uncertainties. In addition to evaluating the three algorithms in terms for separate and joint reliability, we review the needs of EEW with respect to instrumentation and data latency. Possible warning times will typically range from seconds to tens of seconds, and each second delay means a decrease in the available warning time. Minimal latency is therefore important to warning systems. As testing progresses, we are formulating specifications for geophysical networks that can provide real time data in a robust fashion.

  3. 1957 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as a prototype for southern California's most devastating earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bayarsayhan, C.; Bayasgalan, A.; Enhtuvshin, B.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kurushin, R.A.; Molnar, P.; Olziybat, M.

    1996-01-01

    The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.

  4. SCIGN; new Southern California GPS network advances the study of earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnut, Ken; King, Nancy

    2001-01-01

    Southern California is a giant jigsaw puzzle, and scientists are now using GPS satellites to track the pieces. These puzzle pieces are continuously moving, slowly straining the faults in between. That strain is then eventually released in earthquakes. The innovative Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) tracks the motions of these pieces over most of southern California with unprecedented precision. This new network greatly improves the ability to assess seismic hazards and quickly measure the larger displacements that occur during and immediatelyafter earthquakes.

  5. Simulations of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Scenario Earthquakes in Northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, S.; Dreger, D.; Dolenc, D.

    2006-12-01

    3-D simulations of seismic ground motions are performed to better characterize the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and to investigate the seismic consequences from scenario events in northern California. Specifically, we perform simulations of: 1) the 1906 earthquake, which bilaterally ruptured a 480-km segment of the San Andreas fault from San Juan Bautista to Cape Mendocino (epicenter a few kilometers off the coast of San Francisco); 2) large scenario San Andreas events with different epicentral locations; and 3) smaller scenario events along faults local to the San Francisco Bay Area. Simulations of the 1906 earthquake indicate that significant ground motion occurred up and down the northern California coast and out into the Central Valley. Comparisons between the simulated motions and observed data (e.g., shaking intensities, Boatwright and Bundock, 2005), suggest that the moment magnitude of this event was between M7.8 and M7.9. Simulations of 1906-like scenario events along the San Andreas fault reveal that ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area and in the Sacramento Delta region would be significantly stronger for earthquakes initiating along the northern section of the fault and rupturing to the southeast. Simulations of smaller scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area indicate areas of concentrated shaking. These simulations are performed using a recently developed 3-D geologic model of northern California (Brocher and Thurber, 2005; Jachens et al., 2005), together with finite-difference codes (E3D and a new public domain package). The effects of topography and attenuation are included. The full computational domain spans most of the geologic model and is 630x320x50 km3. The minimum S-wave velocity is constrained to 500 m/s, except in water. Frequencies up to 1.0 Hz are modeled. The grid spacing ranges from 75 m to 200 m. High performance supercomputers are used for the simulations, which include models of over 23 billion grid nodes using 2000 processors. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

  6. Bridge pier failure probabilities under combined hazard effects of scour, truck and earthquake. Part II: failure probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zach; Lee, George C.

    2013-06-01

    In many regions of the world, a bridge will experience multiple extreme hazards during its expected service life. The current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) load and resistance factor design (LRFD) specifications are formulated based on failure probabilities, which are fully calibrated for dead load and non-extreme live loads. Design against earthquake load effect is established separately. Design against scour effect is also formulated separately by using the concept of capacity reduction (or increased scour depth). Furthermore, scour effect cannot be linked directly to an LRFD limit state equation because the latter is formulated using force-based analysis. This paper (in two parts) presents a probability-based procedure to estimate the combined hazard effects on bridges due to truck, earthquake and scour, by treating the effect of scour as an equivalent load effect so that it can be included in reliability-based failure calculations. In Part I of this series, the general principle for treating the scour depth as an equivalent load effect is presented. In Part II, the corresponding bridge failure probability, the occurrence of scour as well as simultaneously having both truck load and equivalent scour load effect are quantitatively discussed. The key formulae of the conditional partial failure probabilities and the necessary conditions are established. In order to illustrate the methodology, an example of dead, truck, earthquake and scour effects on a simple bridge pile foundation is represented.

  7. Bridge pier failure probabilities under combined hazard effects of scour, truck and earthquake. Part I: occurrence probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zach; Lee, George C.

    2013-06-01

    In many regions of the world, a bridge will experience multiple extreme hazards during its expected service life. The current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) load and resistance factor design (LRFD) specifications are formulated based on failure probabilities, which are fully calibrated for dead load and nonextreme live loads. Design against earthquake loads is established separately. Design against scour effect is also formulated separately by using the concept of capacity reduction (or increased scour depth). Furthermore, scour effect cannot be linked directly to an LRFD limit state equation, because the latter is formulated using force-based analysis. This paper (in two parts) presents a probability-based procedure to estimate the combined hazard effects on bridges due to truck, earthquake and scour, by treating the effect of scour as an equivalent load effect so that it can be included in reliability-based bridge failure calculations. In Part I of this series, the general principle of treating the scour depth as an equivalent load effect is presented. The individual and combined partial failure probabilities due to truck, earthquake and scour effects are described. To explain the method of including non-force-based natural hazards effects, two types of common scour failures are considered. In Part II, the corresponding bridge failure probability, the occurrence of scour as well as simultaneously having both truck load and equivalent scour load are quantitatively discussed.

  8. Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2004-01-01

    New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

  9. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, April-June 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period April - June, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). A catalog for the first quarter of 1972 has been prepared by Wesson and others (1972). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 910 earthquakes in Central California. A substantial portion of the earthquakes reported in this catalog represents a continuation of the sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which began in February, 1972 (Wesson and others, 1972). Arrival times at 126 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 101 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  10. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California: January-March, 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Meagher, K.L.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the Coast Ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period January - March, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b,c,d). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1,718 earthquakes in Central California. Of particular interest is a sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which contained single shocks with local magnitudes of S.O and 4.6. Earthquakes from this sequence make up roughly 66% of the total and are currently the subject of an interpretative study. Arrival times at 118 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 94 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 24 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley,have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  11. Time-dependent earthquake probability calculations for southern Kanto after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanjo, K. Z.; Sakai, S.; Kato, A.; Tsuruoka, H.; Hirata, N.

    2013-05-01

    Seismicity in southern Kanto activated with the 2011 March 11 Tohoku earthquake of magnitude M9.0, but does this cause a significant difference in the probability of more earthquakes at the present or in the To? future answer this question, we examine the effect of a change in the seismicity rate on the probability of earthquakes. Our data set is from the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalogue, downloaded on 2012 May 30. Our approach is based on time-dependent earthquake probabilistic calculations, often used for aftershock hazard assessment, and are based on two statistical laws: the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude law and the Omori-Utsu (OU) aftershock-decay law. We first confirm that the seismicity following a quake of M4 or larger is well modelled by the GR law with b 1. Then, there is good agreement with the OU law with p 0.5, which indicates that the slow decay was notably significant. Based on these results, we then calculate the most probable estimates of future M6-7-class events for various periods, all with a starting date of 2012 May 30. The estimates are higher than pre-quake levels if we consider a period of 3-yr duration or shorter. However, for statistics-based forecasting such as this, errors that arise from parameter estimation must be considered. Taking into account the contribution of these errors to the probability calculations, we conclude that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant. Although we try to avoid overstating the change in probability, our observations combined with results from previous studies support the likelihood that afterslip (fault creep) in southern Kanto will slowly relax a stress step caused by the Tohoku earthquake. This afterslip in turn reminds us of the potential for stress redistribution to the surrounding regions. We note the importance of varying hazards not only in time but also in space to improve the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for southern Kanto.

  12. Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

  13. Three-dimensional tomography of the 1992 southern California earthquake sequence: Constraints on dynamic earthquake rupture?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lees, Jonathan M.; Nicholson, Craig

    1993-05-01

    Tomographic inversion of P-wave arrival times from aftershocks of 1992 southern California earthquakes is used to produce three dimensional images of subsurface velocity. The preliminary 1992 data set, augmented by the 1986 M 5.9 North Palm Springs sequence, consists of 6458 high-quality events recorded by the permanent regional network—providing 76306 raypaths for inversion. The target area consisted of a 104 x 104 x 32 km3 volume divided into 52 x 52 x 10 rectilinear blocks. Significant velocity perturbations appear to correlate with rupture properties of recent major earthquakes. Preliminary results indicate that a low-velocity anomaly separates the dynamic rupture of the M 6.5 Big Bear event from the M 7.4 Landers main shock; a similar low-velocity region separates the M 6.1 Joshua Tree sequence from the Landers rupture.High-velocity anomalies occur at or near nucleation sites of all four recent main shocks (North Palm Springs-Joshua Tree-LandersBig Bear). A high-velocity anomaly is present along the San Andreas fault between 5 and 12 km depth through San Gorgonio Pass; this high-velocity area may define an asperity where stress is concentrated and where future large earthquakes may begin.

  14. Spatial patterns of aftershocks of shallow focus earthquakes in California and implications for deep focus earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    1989-01-01

    Previous workers have pioneered statistical techniques to study the spatial distribution of aftershocks with respect to the focal mechanism of the main shock. Application of these techniques to deep focus earthquakes failed to show clustering of aftershocks near the nodal planes of the main shocks. To better understand the behaviour of these statistics, this study applies them to the aftershocks of six large shallow focus earthquakes in California (August 6, 1979, Coyote Lake; May 2, 1983, Coalinga; April 24, 1984, Morgan Hill; August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills; July 8, 1986, North Palm Springs; and October 1, 1987, Whittier Narrows). The large number of aftershocks accurately located by dense local networks allows us to treat these aftershock sequences individually instead of combining them, as was done for the deep earthquakes. The results for individual sequences show significant clustering about the closest nodal plane and the strike direction for five of the sequences and about the presumed fault plane for all six sequences. This implies that the previously developed method does work properly. The reasons for the lack of clustering about main shock nodal planes for deep focus aftershocks are discussed. -from Author

  15. Formulation and Application of a Physically-Based Rupture Probability Model for Large Earthquakes on Subduction Zones: A Case Study of Earthquakes on Nazca Plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahdyiar, M.; Galgana, G.; Shen-Tu, B.; Klein, E.; Pontbriand, C. W.

    2014-12-01

    Most time dependent rupture probability (TDRP) models are basically designed for a single-mode rupture, i.e. a single characteristic earthquake on a fault. However, most subduction zones rupture in complex patterns that create overlapping earthquakes of different magnitudes. Additionally, the limited historic earthquake data does not provide sufficient information to estimate reliable mean recurrence intervals for earthquakes. This makes it difficult to identify a single characteristic earthquake for TDRP analysis. Physical models based on geodetic data have been successfully used to obtain information on the state of coupling and slip deficit rates for subduction zones. Coupling information provides valuable insight into the complexity of subduction zone rupture processes. In this study we present a TDRP model that is formulated based on subduction zone slip deficit rate distribution. A subduction zone is represented by an integrated network of cells. Each cell ruptures multiple times from numerous earthquakes that have overlapping rupture areas. The rate of rupture for each cell is calculated using a moment balance concept that is calibrated based on historic earthquake data. The information in conjunction with estimates of coseismic slip from past earthquakes is used to formulate time dependent rupture probability models for cells. Earthquakes on the subduction zone and their rupture probabilities are calculated by integrating different combinations of cells. The resulting rupture probability estimates are fully consistent with the state of coupling of the subduction zone and the regional and local earthquake history as the model takes into account the impact of all large (M>7.5) earthquakes on the subduction zone. The granular rupture model as developed in this study allows estimating rupture probabilities for large earthquakes other than just a single characteristic magnitude earthquake. This provides a general framework for formulating physically-based rupture probability models for large earthquakes on subduction zones that is consistent with their true locking state and earthquake history. We will present the formulation of the proposed model and its application to the Nazca plate subduction zone.

  16. The Northern California Earthquake Data Center: Seismic and Geophysical Data for Northern California and Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D.; Klein, F.; Zuzlewski, S.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2004-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. The NCEDC provides timeseries data from seismic, strain, electro-magnetic, a variety of creep, tilt, and environmental sensors, and continuous and campaign GPS data in raw and RINEX formats. The NCEDC has a wide variety of interfaces for data retrieval. Timeseries data are available via a web interface and standard queued request methods such as NetDC (developed in collaboration with the IRIS DMC and other international data centers), BREQ_FAST, and EVT_FAST. Interactive data retrieval methods include STP, developed by the SCEDC, and FISSURES DHI (Data Handling Interface), an object-oriented interface developed by IRIS. The Sandia MATSEIS system is being adapted to use the FISSURES DHI interface to provide an enhanced GUI-based seismic analysis system for MATLAB. Northern California and prototype ANSS worldwide earthquake catalogs are searchable from web interfaces, and supporting phase and amplitude data can be retrieved when available. Future data sets planned for the NCEDC are seismic and strain data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and SAFOD. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  17. Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harp, Edwin L.; Jibson, Randall W.

    1995-01-01

    The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake (M=6.7) triggered more than 11,000 landslides over an area of about 10,000 km?. Most of the landslides were concentrated in a 1,000-km? area that includes the Santa Susana Mountains and the mountains north of the Santa Clara River valley. We mapped landslides triggered by the earthquake in the field and from 1:60,000-scale aerial photography provided by the U.S. Air Force and taken the morning of the earthquake; these were subsequently digitized and plotted in a GIS-based format, as shown on the accompanying maps (which also are accessible via Internet). Most of the triggered landslides were shallow (1-5 m), highly disrupted falls and slides in weakly cemented Tertiary to Pleistocene clastic sediment. Average volumes of these types of landslides were less than 1,000 m?, but many had volumes exceeding 100,000 m?. Many of the larger disrupted slides traveled more than 50 m, and a few moved as far as 200 m from the bases of steep parent slopes. Deeper ( >5 m) rotational slumps and block slides numbered in the hundreds, a few of which exceeded 100,000 m? in volume. The largest triggered landslide was a block slide having a volume of 8X10E06 m?. Triggered landslides damaged or destroyed dozens of homes, blocked roads, and damaged oil-field infrastructure. Analysis of landslide distribution with respect to variations in (1) landslide susceptibility and (2) strong shaking recorded by hundreds of instruments will form the basis of a seismic landslide hazard analysis of the Los Angeles area.

  18. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, July-September 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Meagher, K.L.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period July - September, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). Catalogs for the first and second quarters of 1972 have been prepared by Wessan and others (1972 a & b). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1254 earthquakes in Central California. Arrival times at 129 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 104 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB), the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  19. Tsunami Hazard in Crescent City, California from Kuril Islands earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.

    2007-12-01

    On November 15, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a series of tsunami surges generated by the M = 8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake causing an estimated 9.7 million (US dollars) in damages to the small boat basin. This was the first significant tsunami loss on US territory since the 1964 Alaska tsunami. The damage occurred nearly 8 hours after the official tsunami alert bulletins had been cancelled. The tsunami caused no flooding and did not exceed the ambient high tide level. All of the damage was caused by strong currents, estimated at 12 to 15 knots, causing the floating docks to be pinned against the pilings and water to flow over them. The event highlighted problems in warning criteria and communications for a marginal event with the potential for only localized impacts, the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami, and the particular exposure of the Crescent City harbor area to tsunamis. It also illustrated the poor understanding of local officials of the duration of tsunami hazard. As a result of the November tsunami, interim changes were made by WCATWC to address localized hazards in areas like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 when a M = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the Kuril Islands, a formal procedure was in place for hourly conference calls between WCATWC, California State Office of Emergency Services officials, local weather Service Offices and local emergency officials, significantly improving the decision making process and the communication among the federal, state and local officials. Kuril Island tsunamis are relatively common at Crescent City. Since 1963, five tsunamis generated by Kuril Island earthquakes have been recorded on the Crescent City tide gauge, two with amplitudes greater than 0.5 m. We use the MOST model to simulate the 2006, 2007 and 1994 events and to examine the difference between damaging and non-damaging events at Crescent City. Small changes in the angle of the rupture zone results can result in a half meter difference in water heights. We also look at the contribution of fault segments along the Kuril subduction zone using the FACTS server to look at the potentially most damaging source regions for Crescent City. A similar-sized rupture as the November 15 event located further south along the Hokkaido - Honshu area of the subduction zone, is likely to produce a slightly larger amplitude signal with and even greater delay between the first wave arrivals and the largest waves.

  20. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Barka, A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

  1. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

    2015-01-01

    With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

  2. Earthquake probability at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, Japan, assessed using bandwidth optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connor, C. B.; Connor, L. J.

    2007-12-01

    On July 16, 2007, a strong 6.8 magnitude earthquake occurred on Japan's west coast, rocking the nearby Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power station on Earth. Shaking during this event produced ground accelerations of ~680 gal, exceeding the plant seismic design specification of 273 gal. This occurrence renews concerns regarding seismic hazards at nuclear facilities located in regions with persistent earthquake activity. Seismic hazard assessments depend upon an understanding of the spatial distribution of earthquakes to effectively assess future earthquake hazards. Earthquake spatial density is best estimated using kernel density functions based on the locations of past seismic events. Two longstanding problems encountered when using kernel density estimation are the selection of an optimal smoothing bandwidth and the quantification of the uncertainty inherent in these estimates. Currently, kernel bandwidths are often selected subjectively and the uncertainty in spatial density estimation is not calculated. As a result, hazards with potentially large consequences for society are poorly estimated. We solve these two problems by employing an optimal bandwidth selector algorithm to objectively identify an appropriately sized kernel bandwidth based on earthquake locations from catalog databases and by assessing uncertainty in the spatial density estimate using a modified smoothed bootstrap technique. After applying these methods to the Kashiwazaki Kariwa site, the calculated probability of one or more Mw 6-7 earthquakes within 10 km of the site during a 40 yr facility lifetime is between 0.005 and 0.02 with 95 percent confidence. This result is made more robust by calculating similar probabilities using alternative databases of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The objectivity and quantitative robustness of these techniques make them extremely beneficial for seismic hazard assessment.

  3. What to Expect from the Virtual Seismologist: Delay Times and Uncertainties of Initial Earthquake Alerts in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behr, Y.; Cua, G. B.; Clinton, J. F.; Racine, R.; Meier, M.; Cauzzi, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland, western Greece and Istanbul. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS installations in southern Italy, Romania, and Iceland are planned or underway. The possible use cases for an EEW system will be determined by the speed and reliability of earthquake source parameter estimates. A thorough understanding of both is therefore essential to evaluate the usefulness of VS. For California, we present state-wide theoretical alert times for hypothetical earthquakes by analyzing time delays introduced by the different components in the VS EEW system. Taking advantage of the fully probabilistic formulation of the VS algorithm we further present an improved way to describe the uncertainties of every magnitude estimate by evaluating the width and shape of the probability density function that describes the relationship between waveform envelope amplitudes and magnitude. We evaluate these new uncertainty values for past seismicity in California through off-line playbacks and compare them to the previously defined static definitions of uncertainty based on real-time detections. Our results indicate where VS alerts are most useful in California and also suggest where most effective improvements to the VS EEW system can be made.

  4. Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs: Example Calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  5. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  6. Unacceptable Risk: Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in One California School District. Hazard Mitigation Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

    Earthquakes are a perpetual threat to California's school buildings. School administrators must be aware that hazard mitigation means much more than simply having a supply of water bottles in the school; it means getting everyone involved in efforts to prevent tragedies from occurring in school building in the event of an earthquake. The PTA in…

  7. Earthquake prediction research at the Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Nevertheless, basic earthquake-related information has always been of consuming interest to the public and the media in this part of California (fig. 2.). So it is not surprising that earthquake prediction continues to be a significant reserach program at the laboratory. Several of the current spectrum of projects related to prediction are discussed below. 

  8. Earthquake alarm; operating the seismograph station at the University of California, Berkeley.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stump, B.

    1980-01-01

    At the University of California seismographic stations, the task of locating and determining magnitudes for both local and distant earthquakes is a continuous one. Teleseisms must be located rapidly so that events that occur in the Pacific can be identified and the Pacific Tsunami Warning System alerted. For great earthquakes anywhere, there is a responsibility to notify public agencies such as the California Office of Emergency Services, the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the California Seismic Safety Commission, and the American Red Cross. In the case of damaging local earthquakes, it is necessary to alert also the California Department of Water Resources, California Division of Mines and Geology, U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bay Area Rapid Transit. These days, any earthquakes that are felt in northern California cause immediate inquiries from the news media and an interested public. The series of earthquakes that jolted the Livermore area from January 24 to 26 1980, is a good case in point. 

  9. Variation of P-wave velocity before the Bear Valley, California, earthquake of 24 February 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.; Wesson, R.L.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    1974-01-01

    Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system.

  10. Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peruzza, Laura; Pace, Bruno; Cavallini, Fabio

    2010-01-01

    Time-dependent models for seismic hazard and earthquake probabilities are at the leading edge of research nowadays. In the framework of a 2-year national Italian project (2005-2007), we have applied the Brownian passage time (BPT) renewal model to the recently released Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) to compute earthquake probability in the period 2007-2036. Observed interevent times on faults in Italy are absolutely insufficient to characterize the recurrence time. We, therefore, derived mean recurrence intervals indirectly. To estimate the uncertainty of the results, we resorted to the theory of error propagation with respect to the main parameters: magnitude and slip rate. The main issue concerned the high variability of slip rate, which could hardly be reduced by exploiting geodetic constraints. We did some validation tests, and interesting considerations were derived from seismic moment budgeting on the historical earthquake catalog. In a time-dependent perspective, i.e., when the date of the last event is known, only 10-15% of the 115 sources exhibit a probability of a characteristic earthquake in the next 30 years higher than the equivalent Poissonian probabilities. If we accept the Japanese conventional choice of probability threshold greater than 3% in 30 years to define highly probable sources, mainly intermediate earthquake faults with characteristic M < 6, having an elapsed time of 0.7-1.2 times the recurrence interval are the most prone sources. The number of highly probable sources rises by increasing the aperiodicity coefficient (from 14 sources in the case of variable ? ranging between 0.22 and 0.36 to 31 sources out of 115 in the case of an ? value fixed at 0.7). On the other hand, in stationary time-independent approaches, more than two thirds of all sources are considered probabilistically prone to an impending earthquake. The performed tests show the influence of the variability of the aperiodicity factor in the BPT renewal model on the absolute probability values. However, the influence on the relative ranking of sources is small. Future developments should give priority to a more accurate determination of the date of the last seismic event for a few seismogenic sources of the DISS catalog and to a careful check on the applicability of a purely characteristic model.

  11. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Decision-Making in a Low-Probability Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.; the International Commission on Earthquake ForecastingCivil Protection

    2011-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. Most previous work on the public utility of OEF has anticipated that forecasts would deliver high probabilities of large earthquakes; i.e., deterministic predictions with low error rates (false alarms and failures-to-predict) would be possible. This expectation has not been realized. An alternative to deterministic prediction is probabilistic forecasting based on empirical statistical models of aftershock triggering and seismic clustering. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts can attain prospective probability gains in excess of 100 relative to long-term forecasts. The utility of such information is by no means clear, however, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing OEF in this sort of "low-probability environment." The need to move more quickly has been underscored by recent seismic crises, such as the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, in which an anxious public was confused by informal and inaccurate earthquake predictions. After the L'Aquila earthquake, the Italian Department of Civil Protection appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), which I chaired, to recommend guidelines for OEF utilization. Our report (Ann. Geophys., 54, 4, 2011; doi: 10.4401/ag-5350) concludes: (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and timely, and need to convey epistemic uncertainties. (b) Earthquake probabilities should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated forecasting systems. (c) All operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and the models should be under continuous prospective testing against long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. (d) Short-term models used in operational forecasting should be consistent with the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. (e) Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government, based in part on objective analysis of costs and benefits. (f) In establishing alert protocols, consideration should also be given to the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. Authoritative statements of increased risk, even when the absolute probability is low, can provide a psychological benefit to the public by filling information vacuums that lead to informal predictions and misinformation. Formal OEF procedures based on probabilistic forecasting appropriately separate hazard estimation by scientists from the decision-making role of civil protection authorities. The prosecution of seven Italian scientists on manslaughter charges stemming from their actions before the L'Aquila earthquake makes clear why this separation should be explicit in defining OEF protocols.

  12. THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.

    2008-12-01

    Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake response technologies by Los Angeles Unified School District and a top to bottom examination of Los Angeles County Fire Department's earthquake response strategies.

  13. Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    1995-01-01

    EARTHQUAKES induce changes in static stress on neighbouring faults that may delay, hasten or even trigger subsequent earthquakes1-10. The length of time over which such effects persist has a bearing on the potential contribution of stress analyses to earthquake hazard assessment, but is presently unknown. Here we use an elastic half-space model11 to estimate the static stress changes generated by damaging (magnitude M???5) earthquakes in southern California over the past 26 years, and to investigate the influence of these changes on subsequent earthquake activity. We find that, in the 1.5-year period following a M???5 earthquake, any subsequent nearby M???5 earthquake almost always ruptures a fault that is loaded towards failure by the first earthquake. After this period, damaging earthquakes are equally likely to rupture loaded and relaxed faults. Our results suggest that there is a short period of time following a damaging earthquake in southern California in which simple Coulomb failure stress models could be used to identify regions of increased seismic hazard. ?? 1995 Nature Publishing Group.

  14. Liquefaction at Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C., III; Rosenberg, L.I.

    2005-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefaction-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site amplification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The estimates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity = VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) "Did You Feel It?" web site.

  15. Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeloffs, Evelyn A.

    1998-01-01

    Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the B V well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time of the year. The first 2.5 days of a typical coseismic water level rise could be caused by a small coseismic discharge decrease at a point several tens of meters from the well. Alternatively, the entire coseismic water level signal could represent diffusion of an abrupt coseismic pore pressure increase within several meters of the well, produced by a mechanism akin to that of liquefaction. The coseismic water level changes in the BV well resemble, and may share a mechanism with, coseismic water level, stream discharge, and groundwater temperature changes at other locations where preearthquake changes have also been reported. No preearthquake changes have been observed at the BV well site, however.

  16. Estimated ground motion from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake at the site of interstate 10 and La Cienega Boulevard bridge collapse, West Los Angeles, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Gibbs, J.F.; Joyner, W.B.; Tinsley, J.C.; Ponti, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    We have estimated ground motions at the site of a bridge collapse during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. The estimated motions are based on correcting motions recorded during the mainshock 2.3 km from the collapse site for the relative site response of the two sites. Shear-wave slownesses and damping based on analysis of borehole measurements at the two sites were used in the site response analysis. We estimate that the motions at the collapse site were probably larger, by factors ranging from 1.2 to 1.6, than at the site at which the ground motion was recorded, for periods less than about 1 sec.

  17. Assessment of active faults for maximum credible earthquakes of the southern California-northern Baja region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slemmons, D. B.; Omalley, P.; Whitney, R. A.; Chung, D. H.; Bernreuter, D. L.

    1982-06-01

    Compilation of a data base is presented for maximum or maximum credible earthquakes that can be used to compute seismic hazard spectra at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Stations in southern California. Estimates of fault slip rate and estimated recurrence - northern Baja California region are given. According to a direct relationship between the total fault length and the earthquake magnitude, the maximum earthquake for the Offshore Zone of Deformation (OZD) is estimated to be of about 6.8 or 6.9 surface wave magnitude. Another empirical relationship relating the fractional fault length and earthquake magnitude for strike slip faults results in an estimated maximum earthquake of about M/sub S/ = 6.8 for the OZD.

  18. Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

    1974-01-01

    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

  19. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Activation for August 24, 2014, M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosinski, A.; Parrish, J.; Mccrink, T. P.; Tremayne, H.; Ortiz, M.; Greene, M.; Berger, J.; Blair, J. L.; Johnson, M.; Miller, K.; Seigel, J.; Long, K.; Turner, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Clearinghouse's principal functions are to 1) coordinate field investigations of earth scientists, engineers, and other participating researchers; 2) facilitate sharing of observations through regular meetings and through the Clearinghouse website; and 3) notify disaster responders of crucial observations or results. Shortly after 3:20 a.m., on August 24, 2014, Clearinghouse management committee organizations, the California Geological Survey (CGS), the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES), and the California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC), authorized activation of a virtual Clearinghouse and a physical Clearinghouse location. The California Geological Survey, which serves as the permanent, lead coordination organization for the Clearinghouse, provided all coordination with the state for all resources required for Clearinghouse activation. The Clearinghouse physical location, including mobile satellite communications truck, was opened at a Caltrans maintenance facility located at 3161 Jefferson Street, in Napa. This location remained active through August 26, 2014, during which time it drew the participation of over 100 experts from more than 40 different organizations, and over 1730 remote visitors via the Virtual Clearinghouse and online data compilation map. The Clearinghouse conducted three briefing calls each day with the State Operations Center (SOC) and Clearinghouse partners, and also conducted nightly briefings, accessible to remote participants via webex, with field personnel. Data collected by field researchers was compiled into a map through the efforts of EERI and USGS volunteers in the Napa Clearinghouse. EERI personnel continued to provide updates to the compilation map over an extended period of time following de-activation of the Clearinghouse. In addition, EERI managed the Clearinghouse website. Two overflights were conducted, for reconnaissance on August 24, with a scientist and an engineer, and on August 25, to collect high resolution still-frame imagery. Following de-activation of the Clearinghouse, a multi-agency, state-federal, cost-sharing agreement was reached to acquire airborne LiDAR of the region affected by surface fault rupture.

  20. The optimum Bayesian probability procedure and the prediction of strong earthquakes felt in Mexico city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraes, Sergio G.

    1988-12-01

    Bayes' theorem has possible application to earthquake prediction because it can be used to represent the dependence of the inter-arrival time ( T) of the next event on magnitude ( M) of the preceding earthquake ( Ferraes, 1975; Bufe et al., 1977; Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980; Sykes and Quittmeyer, 1981). First, we derive the basic formulas, assuming that the earthquake process behaves as a Poisson process. Under this assumption the likelihood probabilities are determined by the Poisson distribution ( Ferraes, 1985) after which we introduce the conjugate family of Gamma prior distributions. Finally, to maximize the posterior Bayesian probability P(?/M) we use calculus and introduce the analytical conditiond/{dtau }P(tau /M) = 0. Subsequently we estimate the occurrence of the next future large earthquake to be felt in Mexico City. Given the probabilistic model, the prediction is obtained from the data set that include all events with M?7.5 felt in Mexico City from 1900 to 1985. These earthquakes occur in the Middle-America trench, along Mexico, but are felt in Mexico City. To see the full significance of the analysis, we give the result using two models: (1) The Poisson-Gamma, and (2) The Poisson-Exponential (a special case of the Gamma). Using the Poisson-Gamma model, the next expected event will occur in the next time interval ?=2.564 years from the last event (occurred on September 19, 1985) or equivalently, the expected event will occur approximately in April, 1988. Using the Poisson-Exponential model, the next expected damaging earthquake will occur in the next time interval ?'=2.381 years from the last event, or equivalently in January, 1988. It should be noted that very strong agreement exists between the two predicted occurrence times, using both models.

  1. Occurrence probability assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides with Newmark displacement values and logistic regression: The Wenchuan earthquake, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying; Song, Chongzhen; Lin, Qigen; Li, Juan

    2016-04-01

    The Newmark displacement model has been used to predict earthquake-triggered landslides. Logistic regression (LR) is also a common landslide hazard assessment method. We combined the Newmark displacement model and LR and applied them to Wenchuan County and Beichuan County in China, which were affected by the Ms. 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, to develop a mechanism-based landslide occurrence probability model and improve the predictive accuracy. A total of 1904 landslide sites in Wenchuan County and 3800 random non-landslide sites were selected as the training dataset. We applied the Newmark model and obtained the distribution of permanent displacement (Dn) for a 30 × 30 m grid. Four factors (Dn, topographic relief, and distances to drainages and roads) were used as independent variables for LR. Then, a combined model was obtained, with an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.797 for Wenchuan County. A total of 617 landslide sites and non-landslide sites in Beichuan County were used as a validation dataset with AUC = 0.753. The proposed method may also be applied to earthquake-induced landslides in other regions.

  2. Earthquake cycle on a transform fault in the Gulf of California, Mexico.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malservisi, Rocco; Hackl, Matthias; Plattner, Christina; Suarez Vidal, Francisco; Gonzales Garcia, Javier; Amelung, Falk

    2010-05-01

    South of the San Andreas Fault system, ~90% of the North America/Pacific plate motion is accommodated along the Gulf of California. Here the plate boundary deformation is partitioned in deep basins formation, often resulting in production of new oceanic crust, connected by long transform faults. In the central part of the Gulf, one of these transform faults, the Ballenas fault, is localized in the Canal de Ballenas, a ~30 km wide channel between Isla Angel de la Garda and mainland Baja California in an area where full oceanic crust is still not generated. The presence of land on both the sides of this "quasi marine" transform fault give the unique opportunity to perform geodetic studies across its trace. On August 3rd 2009, a series of seismic strike slip events (including a M6.9) happened along this segment of plate boundary allowing a combined study of co- and inter-seismic deformation. Here we present the results from 5 years of EGPS along a transect perpendicular to the plate motion direction at approximately 29 degrees North. These surveys include at least 3 occupations before the seismic event and at least 2 occupations after the earthquake. The analysis of the inter-seismic data shows that ~46 mm/yr of relative motion is accommodated within the Canal de Ballenas. Co-seismic data show displacements up to 25 cm on the two sites closest to the event and a pattern compatible with the finite fault model computed by USGS (although the USGS location of the hypocenter is probably 100 km too much to the East). The geodetically estimated fault location is also compatible with multibeam bathymetry. The data collected after the earthquake show also the possibility to identify postseismic displacement from the campaign data. They also show the possibility that the postseismic behavior of the "marine" side is different from the one of the on land side.

  3. Mapping the source of the 1983 Mw 6.5 Coalinga thrust earthquake (California)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meunier, Patrick; Marc, Odin; Hovius, Niels

    2013-04-01

    We have recently shown that density patterns of co-seismic landslides associated to large thrust earthquakes can be used to map the area of maximum slip of the fault plan (Meunier et al., 2013), arguing that once adjusted for site effects, landslide distributions can supplement or replace instrumental records of earthquakes. We have applied our method to the 1983 Mw 6.5 Coalinga thrust earthquake (California). At the times of the main shock, the epicentral area of this earthquake was not covered with the dense network of accelerometers that has been installed since. Consequently, the slip inversion, inverted from leveling cross-sections and teleseismic data, is poorly constrained in comparison to the recent big thrust earthquakes we've been studied. We discuss the inversion of the source of this earthquake and compare its localisation with the one proposed by Stein and Ekstrom (1992).

  4. Liquefaction caused by the 2009 Olancha, California (USA), M5.2 earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Jayko, A.S.; Hauksson, E.; Fletcher, J.P.B.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Dietel, C.M.; Hudnut, K.W.

    2010-01-01

    The October 3, 2009 (01:16:00 UTC), Olancha M5.2 earthquake caused extensive liquefaction as well as permanent horizontal ground deformation within a 1.2 km2area earthquake in Owens Valley in eastern California (USA). Such liquefaction is rarely observed during earthquakes of M ? 5.2. We conclude that subsurface conditions, not unusual ground motion, were the primary factors contributing to the liquefaction. The liquefaction occurred in very liquefiable sands at shallow depth (< 2 m) in an area where the water table was near the land surface. Our investigation is relevant to both geotechnical engineering and geology. The standard engineering method for assessing liquefaction potential, the SeedIdriss simplified procedure, successfully predicted the liquefaction despite the small earthquake magnitude. The field observations of liquefaction effects highlight a need for caution by earthquake geologists when inferring prehistoric earthquake magnitudes from paleoliquefaction features because small magnitude events may cause such features.

  5. Preparation of isoseismal maps and summaries of reported effects for pre-1900 California earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, Tousson R.; Real, Charles R.; Bezore, Stephen P.; Parke, David L.

    1981-01-01

    This is the second annual report of a three year project to clarify the earthquake history of California for the period before 1900. More than four thousand additional newspaper issues were searched for earthquake reports, bringing the total number of issues examined to more than eleven thousand. About one quarter of the issues searched have provided earthquake reports. Summaries of these reports, emphasizing the information used to assign earthquake intensities, were prepared. The strength and spatial distribution of the reported earthquake effects were used to estimate the magnitude and epicentral location of the earthquakes. The third annual report, projected for August 1981, will provide isoseismal maps showing the distribution of the intensity reports which control the estimates of magnitude and epicenter.

  6. Dynamic Triggering of Earthquakes in the Salton Sea Region of Southern California from Large Regional and Teleseismic Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, A.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Wu, C.; Kilb, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    We perform a systematic survey of dynamically triggered earthquakes in the Salton Sea region of southern California using borehole seismic data recordings (2007 to present). We define triggered events as high-frequency seismic energy during large-amplitude seismic waves of distant earthquakes. Our mainshock database includes 26 teleseismic events (epicentral distances > 1000 km; Mw ? 7.5), and 8 regional events (epicentral distances 100 - 1000 km; Mw ? 5.5). Of these, 1 teleseismic and 7 regional events produce triggered seismic activity within our study region. The triggering mainshocks are not limited to specific azimuths. For example, triggering is observed following the 2008 Mw 6.0 Nevada earthquake to the north and the 2010 Mw7.2 Northern Baja California earthquake to the south. The peak ground velocities in our study region generated by the triggering mainshocks exceed 0.03 cm/s, which corresponds to a dynamic stress of ~2 kPa. This apparent triggering threshold is consistent with thresholds found in the Long Valley Caldera (Brodsky and Prejean, 2005), the Parkfield section of San Andreas Fault (Peng et al., 2009), and near the San Jacinto Fault (Kane et al., 2007). The triggered events occur almost instantaneously with the arrival of large amplitude seismic waves and appear to be modulated by the passing surface waves, similar to recent observations of triggered deep non-volcanic tremor along major plate boundary faults in California, Cascadia, Japan, and Taiwan (Peng and Gomberg, 2010). However, unlike these deep tremor events, the triggered signals we find in this study have very short P- to S-arrival times, suggesting that they likely originate from brittle failure in the shallow crust. Confirming this, spectra of the triggered signals mimic spectra of typical shallow events in the region. Extending our observation time window to ~1 month following the mainshock event we find that for the 2010 Mw 7.2 Northern Baja California mainshock, triggered seismicity near the Salton Sea follows an Omori-law-type decay. In comparison, the seismicity rate at the nearby San Jacinto Fault (SJF) region remains continually high. These differences could be caused by the negative static Coulomb stress changes (i.e., stress shadows) near the Salton Sea and positive stress increases near the SJF. Alternatively, they may reflect differences in the mainshock generated dynamic stresses, background seismicity rates, earthquake detectability in these regions or some combinations of these various influences. We will be applying the recently developed matched filter technique to detect additional triggered earthquakes in these regions, allowing us to gain a better understanding of the physics of earthquake triggering in southern California.

  7. Forecasting California's earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30 years?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

    2008-01-01

    In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%?such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California?s future.

  8. Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goff, John A.; Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The source parameters of 19 earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from an inversion of long-period P and SH waveforms. The inversion procedure is described and the estimated precision of the derived source parameters is examined, with particular attention given to source complexity, the resolution of slip vector azimuth, and the resolution of centroid depth. The implications of these earthquake source characteristics for the tectonic evolution of the gulf are discussed.

  9. Strong ground motion and source mechanism studies for earthquakes in the northern Baja California/southern California region

    SciTech Connect

    Munguia-Orozco, L.

    1983-01-01

    Earthquake data sets collected from arrays of digital seismic event recorders and strong motion instruments operated in the northern Baja California/southern California region are analyzed. Complementing these near-source data sets with data from more distant seismic stations it was possible to begin to separate and understand the effects of stress drop, source size, sediment amplification, and physical attenuation on the variation of ground motion with distance. Surprisingly large ground accelerations, over 0.5g, were recorded for some relatively small (M/sub L/ < 5) earthquakes in the Victoria, Baja California earthquake swarm of March 1978. It was concluded that this is a result of relatively high stress drops (approx. 1 kilobar) and a relatively high sediment amplification factor of about 3.4. The ground motion from these earthquakes was relatively high frequency, which was somewhat surprising since the well-established depth of the events is about 10-12 km and the energy thus passed through the 5 km thick column of sediments of the Imperial and Mexicali Valleys, which might have been expected to produce severe attenuation. The primary factors which influence the results of studies with distant station data are geologic complexities, especially the boundary region between the Imperial Valley and the granitic batholith of the Peninsular Ranges.

  10. Earthquake-Induced Landslide Probability Derived From Four Different Methods and Result Comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C.

    2005-12-01

    This study analyzed landslides induced by the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake at a test site in Central Taiwan, called Kuohsing, and landslide spatial probability maps for the test site were made. Landslides induced by the earthquake were extracted from SPOT imageries, Landslide potential factors, which include slope, slope aspect, terrain roughness, total curvature and slope height were derived from a 40m resolution DEM. Lithology and structural data were obtained from a 1 to 50 thousand scaled geological map. Earthquake strong-motion data were used to calculate Arias intensity and others. The state-of-the-art methods, which include two multivariate approach - discriminant analysis and logistic regression, an artificial neural network approach, and the Newmark's method, were used in the analyses. In the discriminant analysis, the output discriminant scores are used to develop landslide susceptibility index (LSI). In the logistic regression, an output probability is used as a LSI directly. In the artificial neural network approach, a fuzzy set concept for landslide and non-landslide was incorporated into the analysis so that the network can output a continuous spectrum for landslide and non-landslide membership, and a defuzzifier was used to obtain a nonfuzzy value for LSI. In the Newmark's method, the output value is a Newmark displacement (Dn). All LSIs and Dns are compared with the landslide inventory and then calculate the landslide ratio or probability of failure for each LSI or Dn interval. These were used to develop the probability of failure functions against LSIs or Dn. Landslide probability maps were then drawn by using the probability of failure functions. All the four methods obtain good result in predicting landslides. Four landslide probability maps show similar probability level and distribution pattern. Among the four methods, discriminant analysis and logistic regression are both stable and good in predicting landslides. The artificial neural network method is good also, but it revealed over-trained phenomenon at the hilly terrain in our test area. The performance of the Newmark's method is not so good as the other methods.

  11. Permeability changes associated with large earthquakes: An example from Loma Prieta, California

    SciTech Connect

    Rojstaczer, S. ); Wolf, S. )

    1992-03-01

    The Loma Prieta (California) earthquake (October 17, 1989; M 7.1) caused significant changes in the hydrology of the San Lorenzo and Pescadero drainage basins, northwest of the epicenter. Streamflow increased at most gauging stations within 15 min after the earthquake. Ionic concentrations and the calcite saturation index of the stream water also increased. Streamflow and solute concentrations decayed significantly over a period of several months following the earthquake. Ground-water levels in the highland parts of the basins were locally lowered by as much as 21 m within weeks to months after the earthquake. The spatial and temporal character of the hydrologic response suggests that the earthquake increased rock permeability and temporarily enhanced ground-water flow rates in the region.

  12. Mammoth Lakes earthquakes, May 25-27, 1980, Mono County, California

    SciTech Connect

    McJunkin, R.D.; Bedrossian, T.L.

    1980-09-01

    A summary of California Division of Mines and Geology activities in the Mammoth Lakes region during and following the earthquakes of May 25 to 27, 1980 is presented. The first earthquake occurred on May 25th a it had a magnitude of 6.0. During the next 16 minutes, four magnitude 4.1 to 5.0 shock and one 5.5 shock occurred. The seismic activity was the beginning of an earthquake sequence that produced 72 magnitude 4.0 to 4.9 events, six 5.0 to 5.5 events, and three events of magnitude 6.0 to 6.3 during the next 48 hours; thousands of magnitude less than or equal to 3.9 earthquakes were generated during the same time period. The regional geology of the earthquake area is discussed, including rock types, structural setting, and seismic history. Ground rupture in the area is also detailed. (JMT)

  13. Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    THE magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike California in 40 years. The slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults; these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes. Stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1-5, moderate6 and large7 earthquakes; conversely, those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5. Here we use an elastic half-space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the Landers earthquake on selected southern California faults, including the San Andreas. We find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4.5, and that the largest changes (1-10 bar), occurring on part of the San Bernardino segment of the San Andreas fault, may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years.

  14. FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, William D.; Archuleta, Ralph J.; Lindh, Allan G.

    1985-01-01

    The paper outlines a procedure for using an earthquake instability model and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an earthquake forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability model that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. Model inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the earthquake time.

  15. Conversion of Historic Seismic Data at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appel, V. L.; Clayton, R. W.

    2003-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to continuous and event-based earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network. The mission of the SCEDC is to maintain an easily-accessible, well-organized, high-quality, searchable archive of earthquake data for research in seismology and earthquake engineering. The SCEDC has compiled and converted all available historic seismic data to create a single source of southern California earthquake data from 1932-present. The 1932-1976 era of seismic data was key-punched from the original phase cards into CUSP-format on a VAX system. The data was then imported into the SCEDC Oracle database, so phase and epicenter data is available for direct retrieval by users via STP. A problematic four-year span of CEDAR data from 1977-1980 is currently not accessible, but has been converted and is being processed to include magnitude information. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 9i database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. Quality control of 1981-2000 historic parametric and waveform data has progressed using a detailed reverse-chronological examination and verification of magnitudes. Current efforts at the SCEDC are focused on continuing to expand the available seismic datasets, enhancing and expanding distribution methods, and providing rapid access to all datasets, historic and modern. Through the California Integrated Seismic Network, the SCEDC is working with the NCEDC to provide unified access to California earthquake data.

  16. Source parameters of the 1980 Mammoth Lakes, California earthquake sequence

    SciTech Connect

    Archuleta, R.J.; Cranswick, E.; Muller, C.; Spudich, P.

    1982-06-10

    From the more than 1500 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes recorded on three-component digital seismographs (Spudich et al., 1981), 150 were used in an analysis of the locations, mechanism, and source parameters. A composite fault plane solution of nine earthquakes 3.9< or =M< or =5.1 defines a right-lateral strike slip mechanism on a steeply dipping nearly east-west plane striking S75 /sup 0/E or left-lateral strike slip on a nearly north-south plane striking N10 /sup 0/E. Vertical cross sections of well-located aftershocks indicate possible three east-west planes that coincide with the locations of the four largest earthquakes with M/sub L/> or =6.0. Using the spectral analysis of S waves (Brune, 1970), source parameters for 67 earthquakes were determined. Forty-eight had magnitudes greater than or equal to 3.0. Seismic moments ranges from 9.20 x 10/sup 18/ dyn cm to 2.33 x 10/sup 24/ dyn cm. Earthquakes with seismic moment greater than about 1.0 x 10/sup 21/ dyn cm had nearly constant stress drops (approx. =50 bars); earthquakes with seismic moment less than about 1.0 x 10/sup 21/ dyn cm had stress drop that apparetnly decrease as seismic moment decreases.

  17. Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Max; Clements, Robert; Rhoades, David; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2014-09-01

    Seven competing models for forecasting medium-term earthquake rates in California are quantitatively evaluated using the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The model class consists of contrasting versions of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Size (EEPAS) and Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) modelling approaches. Models are ranked by their performance on likelihood-based tests, which measure the consistency between a model forecast and observed earthquakes. To directly compare one model against another, we run a classical paired t-test and its non-parametric alternative on an information gain score based on the forecasts. These test scores are complemented by several residual-based methods, which offer detailed spatial information. The experiment period covers 2009 June-2012 September, when California experienced 23 earthquakes above the magnitude threshold. Though all models fail to capture seismicity during an earthquake sequence, spatio-temporal differences between models also emerge. The overall best-performing model has strong time- and magnitude-dependence, weights all earthquakes equally as medium-term precursors of larger events and has a full set of fitted parameters. Models with this time- and magnitude-dependence offer a statistically significant advantage over simpler baseline models. In addition, models that down-weight aftershocks when forecasting larger events have a desirable feature in that they do not overpredict following an observed earthquake sequence. This tendency towards overprediction differs between the simpler model, which is based on fewer parameters, and more complex models that include more parameters.

  18. Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2006-04-15

    The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata et al., Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method.

  19. Investigation of Ionospheric Electron Content Variations Before Earthquakes in Southern California, 2003-2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dautermann, T.; Calais, E.; Haase, J.; Garrison, J. L.

    2006-12-01

    It has been proposed that earthquakes are preceded by electromagnetic signals detectable from ground- and space-based measurements. Ionospheric anomalies, such as variations in the electron density a few days before earthquakes, are one of the precursory signals proposed. Since Global Positioning System (GPS) data can be used to measure the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC), the technique has received attention as a potential tool to detect ionospheric perturbations related to earthquakes. Here, we analyze two years (2003-2004) of data from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN), a dense network of 265 continuous GPS stations centered on the Los Angeles basin, for possible precursors. This time period encompasses the December 2003, M6.6, San Simeon and September 2004, M6.0, Parkfield earthquakes. We produce TEC time series at all SCIGN sites and apply three different statistical tests to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding earthquakes. We find anomalous TEC signals but no statistically significant correlation, in time or in space, between these TEC anomalies and the occurrence of earthquakes in Southern California for the 2003-2004 period. Although this result does not disprove the possibility of precursory phenomena, it shows that the signal-to-noise ratio of hypothetical TEC precursors is too low to be detected by the analysis techniques employed so far.

  20. Investigation of ionospheric electron content variations before earthquakes in southern California, 2003-2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dautermann, Thomas; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer; Garrison, James

    2007-02-01

    It has been proposed that earthquakes are preceded by electromagnetic signals detectable from ground- and space-based measurements. Ionospheric anomalies, such as variations in the electron density a few days before earthquakes, are one of the precursory signals proposed. Since Global Positioning System (GPS) data can be used to measure the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the technique has received attention as a potential tool to detect ionospheric perturbations related to earthquakes. Here, we analyze 2 years (2003-2004) of data from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN), a dense network of 265 continuous GPS stations centered on the Los Angeles basin, for possible precursors. This time period encompasses the December 2003, M6.6, San Simeon and September 2004, M6.0, Parkfield earthquakes. We produce TEC time series at all SCIGN sites and apply three different statistical tests to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding earthquakes. We find anomalous TEC signals but no statistically significant correlation, in time or in space, between these TEC anomalies and the occurrence of earthquakes in southern California for the 2003-2004 period. This result does not disprove the possibility of precursory phenomena but show the signal-to-noise ratio of a hypothetical TEC precursor signature is too low to be detected by the analysis techniques employed here. Precursors may still be revealed for future large earthquakes in well instrumented areas such as California and Japan, if the tests can be developed into techniques that can better separate external influences from the actual TEC signal.

  1. Evidence for dyke intrusion earthquake mechanisms near long valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.

    1983-01-01

    A re-analysis of the magnitude 6 earthquakes that occurred near Long Valley caldera in eastern California on 25 and 27 May 1980, suggests that at least two of them, including the largest, were probably caused by fluid injection along nearly vertical surfaces and not by slip on faults. Several investigators 1,2 have reported difficulty in explaining both the long-period surface-wave amplitudes and phases and the locally recorded short-period body-wave first motions from these events, using conventional double-couple (shear fault) source models. They attributed this difficulty to: (1) complex sources, not representable by single-fault models; (2) artefacts of the analysis methods used; or (3) effects of wave propagation through hypothetical structures beneath the caldera. We show here that the data agree well with the predictions for a compensated linear-vector dipole (CLVD) equivalent-force system3 with its principal extensional axis horizontal and trending N 55-65?? E. Such a mechanism is what would be expected for fluid injection into dykes striking N 25-35?? W, which is the approximate strike of numerous normal faults in the area. ?? 1983 Nature Publishing Group.

  2. Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Communication, Education and Outreach Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benthien, M. L.

    2003-12-01

    The SCEC Communication, Education, and Outreach Program (CEO) offers student research experiences, web-based education tools, classroom curricula, museum displays, public information brochures, online newsletters, and technical workshops and publications. This year, much progress has been made on the development of the Electronic Encyclopedia of Earthquakes (E3), a collaborative project with CUREE and IRIS. The E3 development system is now fully operational, and 165 entries are in the pipeline. When complete, information and resources for over 500 Earth science and engineering topics will be included, with connections to curricular materials useful for teaching Earth Science, engineering, physics and mathematics. To coordinate activities for the 10-year anniversary of the Northridge Earthquake in 2004 (and beyond), the "Earthquake Country Alliance" is being organized by SCEC CEO to present common messages, to share or promote existing resources, and to develop new activities and products jointly (such as a new version of Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country). The group includes earthquake science and engineering researchers and practicing professionals, preparedness experts, response and recovery officials, news media representatives, and education specialists. A web portal, http://www.earthquakecountry.info, is being developed established with links to web pages and descriptions of other resources and services that the Alliance members provide. Another ongoing strength of SCEC is the Summer Intern program, which now has a year-round counterpart with students working on IT projects at USC. Since Fall 2002, over 32 students have participated in the program, including 7 students working with scientists throughout SCEC, 17 students involved in the USC "Earthquake Information Technology" intern program, and 7 students involved in CEO projects. These and other activities of the SCEC CEO program will be presented, along with lessons learned during program design and implementation.

  3. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C., III; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.

    2004-01-01

    The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of the 2003 damage was caused by lateral spreading in two separate areas, one near Norswing Drive and the other near Juanita Avenue. The areas coincided with areas with the highest liquefaction potential found in Oceano. Areas with site amplification conditions similar to those in Oceano are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. Site amplification may cause shaking from distant earthquakes, which normally would not cause damage, to increase locally to damaging levels. The vulnerability in Oceano is compounded by the widespread distribution of highly liquefiable soils that will reliquefy when ground shaking is amplified as it was during the San Simeon earthquake. The experience in Oceano can be expected to repeat because the region has many active faults capable of generating large earthquakes. In addition, liquefaction and lateral spreading will be more extensive for moderate-size earthquakes that are closer to Oceano than was the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. Site amplification and liquefaction can be mitigated. Shaking is typically mitigated in California by adopting and enforcing up-to-date building codes. Although not a guarantee of safety, application of these codes ensures that the best practice is used in construction. Building codes, however, do not always require the upgrading of older structures to new code requirements. Consequently, many older structures may not be as resistant to earthquake shaking as new ones. For older structures, retrofitting is required to bring them up to code. Seismic provisions in codes also generally do not apply to nonstructural elements such as drywall, heating systems, and shelving. Frequently, nonstructural damage dominates the earthquake loss. Mitigation of potential liquefaction in Oceano presently is voluntary for existing buildings, but required by San Luis Obispo County for new construction. Multiple mitigation procedures are available to individual property owners. These procedures typically involve either

  4. Nonvolcanic Tremor Evolution and the San Simeon and Parkfield, California, Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, Robert M.; Guilhem, Aurlie

    2009-07-01

    Nonvolcanic tremors occur adjacent to locked faults and may be closely related to the generation of earthquakes. Monitoring of the San Andreas Fault in the Parkfield, California, region revealed that after two strong earthquakes, tremor activity increased in a nearly dormant tremor zone, increased and became periodic in a previously active zone, and has remained elevated and periodic for over 4 years. Static shear- and Coulomb-stress increases of 6 to 14 kilopascals from these two earthquakes are coincident with sudden increases in tremor rates. The persistent changes in tremor suggest that stress is now accumulating more rapidly beneath this part of the San Andreas Fault, which ruptured in the moment magnitude 7.8 Ft. Tejon earthquake of 1857.

  5. Distribution of intensity for the Westmorland, California, earthquake of April 26, 1981

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnhard, L.M.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore

    1982-01-01

    The maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of the April 26, 1981 earthquake located 5 km northwest of Westmorland, California is VII. Twelve buildings in Westmorland were severely damaged with an additional 30 sustaining minor damage. Two brick parapets fell in Calipatria, 14 km northeast of Westmorland and 10 km from the earthquake epicenter. Significant damage in rural areas was restricted to unreinforced, concrete-lined irrigation canals. Liquefaction effects and ground slumping were widespread in rural areas and were the primary causes of road cracking. Preliminary local government estimates of property loss range from one to three million dollars (Imperial Valley Press, 1981). The earthquake was felt over an area of approximately 160,000 km2; about the same felt area of the October 15, 1979 (Reagor and others, 1980), and May 18, 1940 (Ulrich, 1941) Imperial Valley earthquakes.

  6. Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Shelly, David R.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Clor, Laura; P.H. Seward; Evans, William C.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60?years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

  7. Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ingebritsen, S. E.; Shelly, D. R.; Hsieh, P. A.; Clor, L. E.; Seward, P. H.; Evans, W. C.

    2015-11-01

    The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

  8. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1985-01-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160??80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  9. Nonvolcanic tremor evolution and the San Simeon and Parkfield, California, earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Nadeau, Robert M; Guilhem, Aurlie

    2009-07-10

    Nonvolcanic tremors occur adjacent to locked faults and may be closely related to the generation of earthquakes. Monitoring of the San Andreas Fault in the Parkfield, California, region revealed that after two strong earthquakes, tremor activity increased in a nearly dormant tremor zone, increased and became periodic in a previously active zone, and has remained elevated and periodic for over 4 years. Static shear- and Coulomb-stress increases of 6 to 14 kilopascals from these two earthquakes are coincident with sudden increases in tremor rates. The persistent changes in tremor suggest that stress is now accumulating more rapidly beneath this part of the San Andreas Fault, which ruptured in the moment magnitude 7.8 Ft. Tejon earthquake of 1857. PMID:19589999

  10. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, E.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F.; Bhaskaran, A.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2009-12-01

    The SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 3000 data channels from 375 SCSN recorded stations. The SCSN and SCEDC process and archive an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year, contributing to the southern California earthquake catalog that spans from 1932 to present. The SCEDC provides public, searchable access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP, NETDC and DHI. New data products: ? The SCEDC is distributing synthetic waveform data from the 2008 ShakeOut scenario (Jones et al., USGS Open File Rep., 2008-1150) and (Graves et al. 2008; Geophys. Res. Lett.) This is a M 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. Users will be able to download 40 sps velocity waveforms in SAC format from the SCEDC website. The SCEDC is also distributing synthetic GPS data (Crowell et al., 2009; Seismo. Res. Letters.) for this scenario as well. ? The SCEDC has added a new web page to show the latest tomographic model of Southern California. This model is based on Tape et al., 2009 Science. New data services: ? The SCEDC is exporting data in QuakeML format. This is an xml format that has been adopted by the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). This data will also be available as a web service. ? The SCEDC is exporting data in StationXML format. This is an xml format created by the SCEDC and adopted by ANSS to fully describe station metadata. This data will also be available as a web service. ? The stp 1.6 client can now access both the SCEDC and the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) earthquake and waveform archives. In progress - SCEDC to distribute 1 sps GPS data in miniSEED format: ? As part of a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology project in collaboration with Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP.

  11. Injuries and Traumatic Psychological Exposures Associated with the South Napa Earthquake - California, 2014.

    PubMed

    Attfield, Kathleen R; Dobson, Christine B; Henn, Jennifer B; Acosta, Meileen; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Wilken, Jason A; Barreau, Tracy; Schreiber, Merritt; Windham, Gayle C; Materna, Barbara L; Roisman, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    On August 24, 2014, at 3:20 a.m., a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck California, with its epicenter in Napa County (1). The earthquake was the largest to affect the San Francisco Bay area in 25 years and caused significant damage in Napa and Solano counties, including widespread power outages, five residential fires, and damage to roadways, waterlines, and 1,600 buildings (2). Two deaths resulted (2). On August 25, Napa County Public Health asked the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for assistance in assessing postdisaster health effects, including earthquake-related injuries and effects on mental health. On September 23, Solano County Public Health requested similar assistance. A household-level Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) was conducted for these counties in two cities (Napa, 3 weeks after the earthquake, and Vallejo, 6 weeks after the earthquake). Among households reporting injuries, a substantial proportion (48% in Napa and 37% in western Vallejo) reported that the injuries occurred during the cleanup period, suggesting that increased messaging on safety precautions after a disaster might be needed. One fifth of respondents overall (27% in Napa and 9% in western Vallejo) reported one or more traumatic psychological exposures in their households. These findings were used by Napa County Mental Health to guide immediate-term mental health resource allocations and to conduct public training sessions and education campaigns to support persons with mental health risks following the earthquake. In addition, to promote community resilience and future earthquake preparedness, Napa County Public Health subsequently conducted community events on the earthquake anniversary and provided outreach workers with psychological first aid training. PMID:26355257

  12. Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1985-01-01

    The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  13. Precariously balanced rocks in Nevada and California: Implications for earthquake hazard in Nevada, particularly at Yucca Mtn

    SciTech Connect

    Brune, J.N. . Seismological Lab.)

    1993-04-01

    In several localized areas of Nevada and California there are large numbers of precariously balanced rocks--rocks which could be knocked down by earthquake ground motion with peak accelerations of about 0.2 g or less. Brune and Whitney suggested that at Yucca Mountain, NV, these rocks could be used as paleoindicators of peak ground acceleration. In this study the locations of regions of precariously rocks are compared with probability maps for strong ground motion and intensity maps for known large earthquakes. Large numbers of precarious rocks have been found in the region around Yucca Mtn., site of the proposed high level nuclear waste repository. They have also been found near Lida, NV, 20 km southeast of the spectacular Holocene scarps in Fish Lake Valley; in the West Walter River Canyon 15 km south of Yerington, NV; 25 km north of the ground rupture in the 1932 M=7.4 Cedar Mtn. earthquake; the center of the Peninsular Ranges in southernmost CA; and in the center of the Sierra Nevada batholith. In CA these observations correlate well with published ground acceleration maps, but in NV there are significant discrepancies. The implication of these results for seismic hazard in NV and particularly at Yucca Mtn. are discussed. The observations suggest that for the last few thousand years peak ground accelerations at Yucca Mtn.have been limited to values considerably lower than those which have occurred recently in the neighborhood of the several historic earthquakes in northern NV. The ground accelerations necessary to topple particular precarious rocks can be estimated fairly accurately with stability calculations, numerical and physical modeling, force tests in the field, and artificially induced ground accelerations. Studies in areas of recent high ground acceleration, e.g. in the neighborhood of recent earthquakes and NTS explosions, further calibrate the method.

  14. Guide and Checklist for Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2003

    The recommendations included in this document are intended to reduce seismic hazards associated with the non-structural components of schools buildings, including mechanical systems, ceiling systems, partitions, light fixtures, furnishings, and other building contents. It identifies potential earthquake hazards and provides recommendations for

  15. Identification and Reduction of Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greene, Marjorie; And Others

    It is necessary to identify nonstructural hazards at the school site to reduce the possibly of injury in the event of an earthquake. Nonstructural hazards can occur in every part of a building and all of its contents with the exception of structure. In other words, nonstructural elements are everything but the columns, beams, floors, load-bearing

  16. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  17. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Komjathy, A.; Verkhoglyadova, O.P.; Butala, M.; Rivera, N.

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identified as being anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  18. Moment accumulation rate on faults in California inferred from viscoelastic earthquake cycle models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, K. M.

    2009-12-01

    Calculations of moment accumulation rates on active faults require knowledge of long-term fault slip rates and the area of the fault that is locked interseismically. These parameters are routinely estimated from geodetic data using elastic block models with back slip on dislocations in an elastic half-space. Yet, the elastic models are inconsistent with studies that infer postseismic viscous flow in the lower crust and mantle occurring for decades following large earthquakes. Viscous flow in the lower crust and mantle generates rapid, localized deformation early in the earthquake cycle and slower, more diffuse deformation later in the cycle. Elastic models which neglect this time-dependent flow process may lead to biased estimates of fault slip rates and locking distribution. To address this issue we have developed a three-dimensional earthquake cycle model consisting of fault-bounded blocks in an elastic crust overlying a viscoelastic lower crust and uppermost mantle. It is a kinematic model in which long-term motions of fault-bounded blocks is imposed. Interseismic locking of faults and associated deformation is modeled with steady back-slip on faults and imposed periodic earthquakes. Creep on unlocked portions of the faults occurs at constant stress and therefore the instantaneous creep rate is proportional to the instantaneous stressing rate on the fault. We compare geologic slip rate estimates in southern California with model estimates using GPS data and show that elastic block models underpredict slip rates on several faults that are late in the earthquake cycle and overpredict slip rates on faults that are early in the earthquake cycle. The viscoelastic cycle model, constrained by earthquake timing from the geologic record, predicts fault slip rates that are entirely consistent with geologic estimates for all major faults in southern California. For northern California, fault slip rate estimates using geodetic data appear not to be strongly dependent on model assumptions and are generally consistent with geologic estimates; therefore we focus on estimates of the distribution of interseismic locking of faults. We constrain the locking distribution using nearly a century of triangulation measurements of strain following the M7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake, contemporary GPS velocities, geologic slip rate and earthquake timing data, and the viscoelastic earthquake cycle model with spatially variable distributions of locking and stress-driven creep. We find considerable lateral variations in locking depths in the San Francisco Bay area. Compared with our models of spatially variable locking distribution, models that assume a typical 15 km uniform locking depth overpredict the moment accumulation rate by a factor of 2-3 on the Peninsular San Andreas, Calaveras, Rodgers Creek, and Green Valley faults.

  19. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

  20. Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wei, S.; Fielding, E.; Leprince, S.; Sladen, A.; Avouac, J.-P.; Helmberger, D.; Hauksson, E.; Chu, R.; Simons, M.; Hudnut, K.; Herring, T.; Briggs, R.

    2011-01-01

    The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures1-6. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the Mw 7.2 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130 ??E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  1. Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Dieterich, J.H.; Yoshida, A.

    1998-01-01

    The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2-1.0 bars (0.02-0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a Mw = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997-2007 is estimated to have risen from 5-6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7-11% afterward; during 1997-2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14-16% before Kobe to 16-22%.

  2. One hundred years of earthquake recording at the University of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolt, B. A.

    1987-01-01

    The best seismographs then available arrived from England in 1887 and were installed at Lick Observatory on Mt.Hamilton and at the Students Astronomical Observatory on the Berkeley campus. The first California earthquake recorded by the Lick instrument was on April 24, 1887. These seismographic stations have functioned continuously from their founding to the present day, with improvements in instruments from time to time as technology advanced. Now they are part of a sesimogrpahic network of 16 stations recording with great completeness both local and distant earthquakes

  3. Felt reports and intensity assignments for aftershocks and triggered events of the great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, Aron J.; Wald, David J.

    2002-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strikeslip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the M 7.8 San Francisco earthquake, on 18 April 1906. This open-file report is a compilation of first-hand accounts (felt reports) describing aftershocks and triggered events of the 1906 earthquake, for the first twenty months of the aftershock sequence (through December 1907). The report includes a chronological catalog. For the larger events, Modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) have been assigned based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable.

  4. The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, California, earthquake: selected photographs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nakata, John K.; Meyer, C.E.; Wilshire, H.G.; Tinsley, J. C., III; Updegrove, W.S.; Peterson, D.M.; Ellen, S.D.; Haugerud, R.A.; McLaughlin, R.J.; Fisher, G.R.; Diggles, M.F.

    1999-01-01

    This CD-ROM contains 103 digitized color 35-mm images from Open-File Report 90-547 (Nakata and others, 1990). Our photographic coverage reflects the time and resources available immediately after the event and is not intended to portray the full extent of earthquake damage. This CD-ROM provides images for use by the interested public, multimedia producers, desktop publishers, and the high-end printing industry.

  5. A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

    2013-01-01

    We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

  6. The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

    2006-12-01

    Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

  7. The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa Earthquake, California: Observations from Real-time GPS-enhanced Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. While most concepts have yet to be integrated into operational environments, the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory is currently running an rtGPS based finite fault inversion scheme in true real-time, which is triggered by the seismic-based ShakeAlert system and then sends updated earthquake alerts to a test receiver. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) was online and responded to the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and for 13 aftershocks, and we present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and a magnitude estimate of Mw5.5 were available 24 s after the event origin time, which could be reduced to 14 s after a bug fix (~8 s S-wave travel time, ~6 s data latency). The system continued to re-estimate the magnitude once every second: it increased to Mw5.9 3 s after the first alert and stabilized at Mw5.8 after 15 s. G-larmS' solutions for the subsequent small magnitude aftershocks demonstrate that Mw~6.0 is the current limit for alert updates to contribute back to the seismic-based early warning system.

  8. The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 : a brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: What happened ... what is expected ... what can be done.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Peter L.; Page, Robert A.

    1990-01-01

    The San Andreas fault, in California, is the primary boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Land west of the fault has been moving northwestward relative to land on the east at an average rate of 2 inches per year for millions of years. This motion is not constant but occurs typically in sudden jumps during large earthquakes. This motion is relentless; therefore earthquakes in California are inevitable.

  9. Earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading along major strike-slip faults in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weaver, C.S.; Hill, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    Earthquake swarms in California are often localized to areas within dextral offsets in the linear trend in active fault strands, suggesting a relation between earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading. Local crustal spereading is required by the geometry of dextral offsets when, as in the San Andreas system, faults have dominantly strike-slip motion with right-lateral displacement. Three clear examples of this relation occur in the Imperial Valley, Coso Hot Springs, and the Danville region, all in California. The first two of these areas are known for their Holocene volcanism and geothermal potential, which is consistent with crustal spreading and magmatic intrusion. The third example, however, shows no evidence for volcanism or geothermal activity at the surface. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

  10. Fluid?driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic?type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M?6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b?value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

  11. Historigraphical analysis of the 1857 Ft. Tejon earthquake, San Andreas Fault, California: Preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martindale, D.; Evans, J. P.

    2002-12-01

    Past historical analyses of the 1857 Forth Tejon earthquake include Townley and Allen (1939); Wood (1955) re-examined the earthquake and added some additional new material, and Agnew and Sieh (1978) published an extensive review of the previous publications and included primary sources not formerly known. Since 1978, most authors have reiterated the findings of Agnew and Sieh, with the exception of Meltzner and Wald's 1998 work that built on Sieh's foreshock research and included an extensive study of aftershocks. Approximately twenty-five years has past since the last full investigation of the event. In the last several decades, libraries and archives have continued to gather additional documents. Staff members continually inventory new and existing collections, making them accessible to researchers today. As a result, we are conducting an updated examination, with the hope of new insight regarding the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. We use a new approached to the topic: the research skills of a historian in collaboration with a geologist to generate quantitative data on the nature and location of ground shaking associated with the earthquake. We analyze documents from the Huntington Library, California State Historical Society, California State Library-California Room, Utah Historical Association Information Center, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) Archives and Historical Department, Cal Tech Archives, the National Archives, and the Fort Tejon State Park. New facilities reviewed also include Utah State University, University of Utah, and the LDS Family History Center. Each facility not only provided formerly quoted sources, but many offered new materials. For example, previous scholars examined popular, well-known newspapers; yet, publications in smaller towns and in languages other than English, also existed. Thirty newspapers published in January 1857 were located. We find records of the event at least one year after the earthquake. One outcome of such a search includes letters, approximately eight pictures useful in structure-damage analysis. Over 170 newspapers were published during 1857 throughout California, Nevada, and New Mexico Territory, encompassing the area of Arizona and New Mexico today. Historical information regarding the settlement of areas also proved useful. Although earlier scholars knew of LDS settlement missions in San Bernardino, California and Las Vegas, Nevada, only brief information was located. Preliminary results include increasing the felt area to include Las Vegas, Nevada; support for a Mercalli Index of IX or even X for San Bernardino; VIII or greater for sites NE of Sacramento, a northwest to southeast rupture pattern, and reports of electromagnetic disturbances. Based on these results, we suggest that the 1857 Ft. Tejon earthquake be felt over a wider area, and in places created greater ground shaking, than previously documented.

  12. Living With Earthquakes in California: A Survivor's Guide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Lisa B.

    I write this review from a California government building in a roomful of somber, frightened strangers with armed sheriffs guarding the door. We are prohibited from leaving. A state of emergency has been declared, the airports are closed, the burly man next to me is tearing up, and all I can think of is getting home to my loved ones. What are the odds of being trapped in a jury room with armed guards and a television set, watching the collapse of the World Trade Center Towers and the smoking Pentagon? What are the odds of being trapped in a building, thinking of loved ones, as the Earth shakes, the furniture dances, and the ceiling falls when the long-awaited ‘Big One’ finally hits California? The analogy is sobering.

  13. Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

    2005-12-01

    Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground motion uncertainties. The approach is designed to integrate loss distribution functions with different degrees of correlation for portfolio analysis. The analysis is based on USGS 2002 regional seismicity model.

  14. New Continuous Timeseries Data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Dietz, L.; Zuzlewski, S.; Kohler, W.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2005-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. Recent discovery of non-volcanic tremors in northern and central California has sparked user interest in access to a wider range of continuous seismic data in the region. The NCEDC has responded by expanding its archiving and distribution to all new available continuous data from northern California seismic networks (the USGS NCSN, the UC Berkeley BDSN, the Parkfield HRSN borehole network, and local USArray stations) at all available sample rates, to provide access to all recent real-time timeseries data, and to restore from tape and archive all NCSN continuous data from 2001-present. All new continuous timeseries data will also be available in near-real-time from the NCEDC via the DART (Data Available in Real Time) system, which allows users to directly download daily Telemetry MiniSEED files or to extract and retrieve the timeseries of their selection. The NCEDC will continue to create and distribute event waveform collections for all events detected by the Northern California Seismic System (NCSS), the northern California component of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). All new continuous and event timeseries will be archived in daily intervals and are accessible via the same data request tools (NetDC, BREQ_FAST, EVT_FAST, FISSURES/DHI, STP) as previously archived waveform data. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  15. DEFORMATION NEAR THE EPICENTER OF THE 1984 ROUND VALLEY, CALIFORNIA, EARTHQUAKE.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gross, W.K.; Savage, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    A trilateration network extending from near Mammoth Lakes to Bishop, California, was resurveyed following the November 23, 1984, Round Valley earthquake (M//L equals 5. 8). The network had previously been surveyed in 1982. Deformation apparently associated with the Round Valley earthquake was detected as well as deformation due to the expansion of a magma chamber 8 km beneath the resurgent dome in the Long Valley caldera and right-lateral slip on the uppermost 2 km of the 1983 rupture surface in the south moat of the caldera. The deformation associated with Round Valley earthquake suggests left-lateral slip on the north-northeasterly striking vertical plane defined by the aftershock hypocenters. (Edted author abstract) Refs.

  16. Focal mechanisms of Southern California offshore earthquakes: the effects of incomplete geographical data coverage on understanding rupture patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunner, K.; Kohler, M. D.; Weeraratne, D. S.

    2011-12-01

    Calculating accurate focal mechanisms for offshore seismic events is difficult due to a lack of nearby seismic stations, limited azimuthal coverage, and uncertain velocity structure. We conducted an experiment to determine what effect data from island seismic stations in Southern California (San Miguel, Santa Rosa, Santa Cruz, Santa Barbara, San Nicolas, Santa Catalina, and San Clemente Islands), and ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have on constraining focal mechanisms for earthquakes in the California Borderland with a local magnitude greater than three. Thirty-four OBSs were deployed in August of 2010 with the ALBACORE project to collect data for over a year before being recovered in September of 2011. Waveform data from those stations as well as the Southern California Seismic Network were analyzed to determine P-wave first-motion polarities for twenty-nine earthquakes with an acceptable signal-to-noise ratio. These data were then used to calculate focal mechanisms with and without the offshore stations using HASH v.1.2 [Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002], an algorithm that accounts for errors in earthquake location, velocity model, and polarity observations. Comparisons of these results show that including offshore stations improves the errors in fault plane uncertainty and solution probability due to the increased azimuthal coverage and smaller source-receiver distance. Plots of these solutions on maps of the offshore region indicate that the San Clemente fault, San Diego Trough fault, Palos Verdes fault, and additional unmapped faults are currently active. These observations agree with maps of more comprehensive seismicity patterns from the past twenty years. Additionally, the focal mechanisms show that the San Clemente fault, San Diego Trough fault, and a region south of San Nicolas Island all exhibit right lateral movement. The Palos Verdes fault exhibits reverse faulting and a region west of the northern Channel Islands exhibits normal faulting. These observations provide evidence that offshore faults are not purely strike-slip, but have normal and reverse slip, and present the possibility of producing tsunamis that could threaten the highly populated areas of Southern California.

  17. Statiscal analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution - The 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.

    2000-01-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km2 in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km2 in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysisof variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Cruise report for A1-98-SC southern California Earthquake Hazards Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Bohannon, Robert G.; Sliter, Ray; Dunhill, Gita; Scholl, David W.; Laursen, Jane; Reid, Jane A.; Holton, David

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project, within the Western Region Coastal and Marine Geology team (WRCMG), is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes that can potentially impact the social and economic well-being of the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region, the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin. The primary objective is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this overall objective, we are investigating the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (see Fig. 1). In addition, the project will examine the Pliocene-Pleistocene record of how this deformation has shifted in space and time. The results of this study should improve our knowledge of shifting deformation for both the long-term (105 to several 106 yr) and short-term (<50 ky) time frames and enable us to identify actively deforming structures that may constitute current significant seismic hazards.

  19. Analysis of Earthquake Recordings Obtained from the Seafloor Earthquake Measurement System (SEMS) Instruments Deployed off the Coast of Southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Smith, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    For more than 20 years, a program has been underway to obtain records of earthquake shaking on the seafloor at sites offshore of southern California, near oil platforms. The primary goal of the program is to obtain data that can help determine if ground motions at offshore sites are significantly different than those at onshore sites; if so, caution may be necessary in using onshore motions as the basis for the seismic design of oil platforms. We analyze data from eight earthquakes recorded at six offshore sites; these are the most important data recorded on these stations to date. Seven of the earthquakes were recorded at only one offshore station; the eighth event was recorded at two sites. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 4.7 to 6.1. Because of the scarcity of multiple recordings from any one event, most of the analysis is based on the ratio of spectra from vertical and horizontal components of motion. The results clearly show that the offshore motions have very low vertical motions compared to those from an average onshore site, particularly at short periods. Theoretical calculations find that the water layer has little effect on the horizontal components of motion but that it produces a strong spectral null on the vertical component at the resonant frequency of P waves in the water layer. The vertical-to-horizontal ratios for a few selected onshore sites underlain by relatively low shear-wave velocities are similar to the ratios from offshore sites for frequencies less than about one-half the water layer P-wave resonant frequency, suggesting that the shear-wave velocities beneath a site are more important than the water layer in determining the character of the ground motions at lower frequencies.

  20. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Strong Ground Motion and Ground Failure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1992-01-01

    Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. Soft soils beneath the Marina amplified ground shaking to damaging levels and caused liquefaction of sandy artificial fills. Liquefaction required 123 repairs of pipelines in the Municipal Water Supply System, more than three times the number of repairs elsewhere in the system. Approximately 13.6 km of gas-distribution lines were replaced, and more than 20% of the wastewater collection lines were repaired or replaced.

  1. Cruise report for 01-99-SC: southern California earthquake hazards project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Reid, Jane A.; Sliter, Ray W.; Holton, David; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Fisher, Michael A.; Childs, Jonathan R.

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes occurring in the offshore areas that have significant potential to impact the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region. The project activity is supported through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the Geologic Division of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is a component of the Geologic Division's Science Strategy under Goal 1—Conduct Geologic Hazard Assessments for Mitigation Planning (Bohlen et al., 1998). The project research is specifically stated under Activity 1.1.2 of the Science Strategy: Earthquake Hazard Assessments and Loss Reduction Products in Urban Regions. This activity involves "research, seismic and geodetic monitoring, field studies, geologic mapping, and analyses needed to provide seismic hazard assessments of major urban centers in earthquake-prone regions including adjoining coastal and offshore areas." The southern California urban areas, which form the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin, are among a few specifically designated for special emphasis under the Division's science strategy (Bohlen et al., 1998). The primary objective of the project is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this objective, we are conducting field investigations to observe the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (Fig. 1). In addition, acoustic imaging should help determine the subsurface dimensions of the faults and identify the size and frequency of submarine landslides, both of which are necessary for evaluating the potential for generating destructive tsunamis in the southern California offshore. In order to evaluate the strain associated with the offshore structures, the initial results from the field mapping under this project will be used to identify possible sites for deployment of acoustic geodetic instruments to monitor strain in the offshore region. A major goal of mapping under this project is to provide detailed geologic and geophysical information in GIS data bases that build on the earlier studies and use the new data to precisely locate active faults and to map recent submarine landslide deposits.

  2. Slip budget and potential for a M7 earthquake in central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Ruth A.; Archuleta, Ralph J.

    1988-10-01

    The slip rate budget of the San Andreas fault (SAF) in central California, which is approximately 33 mm/yr, is accounted for by a change in the slip release mechanism along the fault. In the NW section of the fault, between Bear Valley and Monarch Peak, creep apparently accounts for the slip budget with the seismicity contributing negligibly. The section at Parkfield marks the transition from a creeping to a locked fault trace. Since the M8 1857 earthquake five M6 earthquakes have occurred but have not completely accounted for the slip budget. Southeast of Parkfield, the SAF has been locked since 1857. From Cholame to Bitterwater Valley this section now lags the deep slip by the amount of slip released in 1857; consequently faulting in this section could occur at the time of the next Parkfield earthquake. If this earthquake releases the slip deficit accumulated in the transition zone and in the locked zone, the earthquake will have a moment-magnitude M7.2.

  3. WHITTIER NARROWS, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE OF OCTOBER 1, 1987-PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF STRONG GROUND MOTION RECORDS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brady, A.G.; Etheredge, E.C.; Porcella, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    More than 250 strong-motion accelerograph stations were triggered by the Whittier Narrows, California earthquake of 1 October 1987. Considering the number of multichannel structural stations in the area of strong shaking, this set of records is one of the more significant in history. Three networks, operated by the U. S. Geological Survey, the California Division of Mines and Geology, and the University of Southern California produced the majority of the records. The excellent performance of the instruments in these and the smaller arrays is attributable to the quality of the maintenance programs. Readiness for a magnitude 8 event is directly related to these maintenance programs. Prior to computer analysis of the analog film records, a number of important structural resonant modes can be identified, and frequencies and simple mode shapes have been scaled.

  4. The Earthquake Cycle on the San Andreas Fault System in northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yikilmaz, M. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Beketova, O.; Kellogg, L. H.; Rundle, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    An important aspect of the tectonics in northern California is the northward migration of the triple junction across the region which gave birth to the San Andreas transform fault about 28 Myrs ago. The triple junction has formed by the subduction of a spreading ridge that once bounded the Farallon and the Pacific plates. A "slab window" has also been formed during this subduction event. Due to the high heat flow caused by this slab window, a soft zone of deformation with a width of ~100 km has been generated. This deformation zone is bounded on the west by the near rigid Pacific Plate and on the east by the near rigid Sierra-Nevada Central Valley Plate. Continuous and campaign GPS measurements indicate a near-uniform shear strain in this zone of deformation. We propose a hypothesis for the deformation pattern associated with great earthquakes and the linear strain field discussed above. We separate the earthquake cycle into three parts, beginning with the great 1906 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, these are: 1) The coseismic behavior associated with the great earthquake. We take the slip to be 4 m and the associated stress drop extends some 15 km on either side of the fault. 2) Stress relaxation following the earthquake. This relaxation results in a near uniform state of stress across the zone of deformation and a reloading of the San Andreas Fault. 3)Uniform shear stress loading until the next great earthquake occurs in agreement with the GPS observations. We attribute this near uniform shear to fluid-like behavior beneath the brittle upper lithosphere in which earthquakes occur.

  5. Calculation of the Rate of M>6.5 Earthquakes for California and Adjacent Portions of Nevada and Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, Arthur; Mueller, Charles

    2008-01-01

    One of the key issues in the development of an earthquake recurrence model for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico is the comparison of the predicted rates of earthquakes with the observed rates. Therefore, it is important to make an accurate determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 earthquakes in California and the adjacent region. We have developed a procedure to calculate observed earthquake rates from an earthquake catalog, accounting for magnitude uncertainty and magnitude rounding. We present a Bayesian method that corrects for the effect of the magnitude uncertainty in calculating the observed rates. Our recommended determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 in this region is 0.246 ? 0.085 (for two sigma) per year, although this rate is likely to be underestimated because of catalog incompleteness and this uncertainty estimate does not include all sources of uncertainty.

  6. Surface fault slip associated with the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C., III; Treiman, J.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.; Ciahan, K.B.; Rosinski, A.M.; Bryant, W.A.; Snyder, H.A.; Fuis, G.S.; Toke, N.A.; Bawden, G.W.

    2006-01-01

    Surface fracturing occurred along the San Andreas fault, the subparallel Southwest Fracture Zone, and six secondary faults in association with the 28 September 2004 (M 6.0) Parkfield earthquake. Fractures formed discontinuous breaks along a 32-km-long stretch of the San Andreas fault. Sense of slip was right lateral; only locally was there a minor (1-11 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip in the first few weeks after the event, early in its afterslip period, ranged from 1 to 44 mm. Our observations in the weeks following the earthquake indicated that the highest slip values are in the Middle Mountain area, northwest of the mainshock epicenter (creepmeter measurements indicate a similar distribution of slip). Surface slip along the San Andreas fault developed soon after the mainshock; field checks in the area near Parkfield and about 5 km to the southeast indicated that surface slip developed more than 1 hr but generally less than 1 day after the event. Slip along the Southwest Fracture Zone developed coseismically and extended about 8 km. Sense of slip was right lateral; locally there was a minor to moderate (1-29 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip ranged from 1 to 41 mm. Surface slip along secondary faults was right lateral; the right-lateral component of slip ranged from 3 to 5 mm. Surface slip in the 1966 and 2004 events occurred along both the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone. In 1966 the length of ground breakage along the San Andreas fault extended 5 km longer than that mapped in 2004. In contrast, the length of ground breakage along the Southwest Fracture Zone was the same in both events, yet the surface fractures were more continuous in 2004. Surface slip on secondary faults in 2004 indicated previously unmapped structural connections between the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone, further revealing aspects of the structural setting and fault interactions in the Parkfield area.

  7. Seismic velocity structure and earthquake relocation for the magmatic system beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Guoqing

    2015-04-01

    A new three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity model and high-precision location catalog for earthquakes between 1984 and 2014 are presented for Long Valley Caldera and its adjacent fault zones in eastern California. The simul2000 tomography algorithm is applied to derive the 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs models using first-arrivals of 1004 composite earthquakes obtained from the original seismic data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The resulting Vp model reflects geological structures and agrees with previous local tomographic studies. The simultaneously resolved Vp/Vs model is a major contribution of this study providing an important complement to the Vp model for the interpretation of structural heterogeneities and physical properties in the study area. The caldera is dominated by low Vp anomalies at shallow depths due to postcaldera fill. High Vp and low Vp/Vs values are resolved from the surface to ~ 3.4 km depth beneath the center of the caldera, corresponding to the structural uplift of the Resurgent Dome. An aseismic body with low Vp and high Vp/Vs anomalies at 4.2-6.2 km depth below the surface is consistent with the location of partial melt suggested by previous studies based on Vp models only and the inflation source locations based on geodetic modeling. The Sierran crystalline rocks outside the caldera are generally characterized with high Vp and low Vp/Vs values. The newly resolved velocity model improves absolute location accuracy for the seismicity in the study area and ultimately provides the basis for a high-precision earthquake catalog based on similar-event cluster analysis and waveform cross-correlation data. The fine-scale velocity structure and precise earthquake relocations are useful for investigating magma sources, seismicity and stress interaction and other seismological studies in Long Valley.

  8. Web Services and Other Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, or MiniSEED depending on the service, and are compatible with the equivalent IRIS DMC web services. The NCEDC is currently providing the following Web Services: (1) Station inventory and channel response information delivered in StationXML format, (2) Channel response information delivered in RESP format, (3) Time series availability delivered in text and XML formats, (4) Single channel and bulk data request delivered in MiniSEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a rich Earthquake Catalog Web Service to allow users to query earthquake catalogs based on selection parameters such as time, location or geographic region, magnitude, depth, azimuthal gap, and rms. It will return (in QuakeML format) user-specified results that can include simple earthquake parameters, as well as observations such as phase arrivals, codas, amplitudes, and computed parameters such as first motion mechanisms, moment tensors, and rupture length. The NCEDC will work with both IRIS and the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) to define a uniform set of web service specifications that can be implemented by multiple data centers to provide users with a common data interface across data centers. The NCEDC now hosts earthquake catalogs and waveforms from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) monitoring networks. These data can be accessed through the above web services and through special NCEDC web pages.

  9. Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, David D.

    Prospects for earthquake prediction and forecasting, and even their definitions, are actively debated. Here, "forecasting" means estimating the future earthquake rate as a function of location, time, and magnitude. Forecasting becomes "prediction" when we identify special conditions that make the immediate probability much higher than usual and high enough to justify exceptional action. Proposed precursors run from aeronomy to zoology, but no identified phenomenon consistently precedes earthquakes. The reported prediction of the 1975 Haicheng, China earthquake is often proclaimed as the most successful, but the success is questionable. An earthquake predicted to occur near Parkfield, California in 19885 years has not happened. Why is prediction so hard? Earthquakes start in a tiny volume deep within an opaque medium; we do not know their boundary conditions, initial conditions, or material properties well; and earthquake precursors, if any, hide amongst unrelated anomalies. Earthquakes cluster in space and time, and following a quake earthquake probability spikes. Aftershocks illustrate this clustering, and later earthquakes may even surpass earlier ones in size. However, the main shock in a cluster usually comes first and causes the most damage. Specific models help reveal the physics and allow intelligent disaster response. Modeling stresses from past earthquakes may improve forecasts, but this approach has not yet been validated prospectively. Reliable prediction of individual quakes is not realistic in the foreseeable future, but probabilistic forecasting provides valuable information for reducing risk. Recent studies are also leading to exciting discoveries about earthquakes.

  10. Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers: A Collaboration Between the Earthquake Country Alliance and Free-Choice Learning Institutions in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degroot, R. M.; Springer, K.; Brooks, C. J.; Schuman, L.; Dalton, D.; Benthien, M. L.

    2009-12-01

    In 1999 the Southern California Earthquake Center initiated an effort to expand its reach to multiple target audiences through the development of an interpretive trail on the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek and an earthquake exhibit at Fingerprints Youth Museum in Hemet. These projects and involvement with the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands beginning in 2007 led to the creation of Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers (EPIcenters) in 2008. The impetus for the development of the network was to broaden participation in The Great Southern California ShakeOut. In 2009 it has grown to be more comprehensive in its scope including its evolution into a statewide network. EPIcenters constitute a variety of free-choice learning institutions, representing museums, science centers, libraries, universities, parks, and other places visited by a variety of audiences including families, seniors, and school groups. They share a commitment to demonstrating and encouraging earthquake preparedness. EPIcenters coordinate Earthquake Country Alliance activities in their county or region, lead presentations or organize events in their communities, or in other ways demonstrate leadership in earthquake education and risk reduction. The San Bernardino County Museum (Southern California) and The Tech Museum of Innovation (Northern California) serve as EPIcenter regional coordinating institutions. They interact with over thirty institutional partners who have implemented a variety of activities from displays and talks to earthquake exhibitions. While many activities are focused on the time leading up to and just after the ShakeOut, most EPIcenter members conduct activities year round. Network members at Kidspace Museum in Pasadena and San Diego Natural History Museum have formed EPIcenter focus groups on early childhood education and safety and security. This presentation highlights the development of the EPIcenter network, synergistic activities resulting from this collaboration, and lessons learned from interacting with free-choice learning institutions.

  11. The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa earthquake, California: Observations from real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grapenthin, Ronni; Johanson, Ingrid; Allen, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. Most concepts, however, have yet to be integrated into operational environments. The Berkeley Seismological Laboratory runs an rtGPS-based finite fault inversion scheme in real time. This system (G-larmS) detected the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and 13 aftershocks and present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and magnitude estimates were available 24s after the event origin time, which, after optimizations, was reduced to 14s (?8s S wave travel time, ?6s data latency). G-larmS' solutions for the aftershocks (that had no measurable surface displacements) demonstrate that, in combination with the seismic early warning magnitude, Mw 6.0 is our current resolution limit.

  12. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  13. Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

    2004-12-01

    In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and individual owners, so that they can make well-informed financial decisions.

  14. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2014-12-01

    In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of tsunami hazards. Over the twenty-year period covered by the surveys, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 90 percent and awareness of the Cascadia subduction zone increased from 16 to 60 percent.

  15. Earthquakes

    MedlinePLUS

    ... Weather Workplace Plans School Emergency Plans Main Content Earthquakes Earthquakes are sudden rolling or shaking events caused ... at any time of the year. Before An Earthquake Look around places where you spend time. Identify ...

  16. Earthquakes

    MedlinePLUS

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  17. The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

    2013-06-01

    The Kanto seismic corridor surrounding Tokyo has hosted four to five M ? 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years. Immediately after the Tohoku earthquake, the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10-fold, while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half. The seismicity rate decayed for 6-12 months, after which it steadied at three times the pre-Tohoku rate. The seismicity rate jump and decay to a new rate, as well as the focal mechanism change, can be explained by the static stress imparted by the Tohoku rupture and postseismic creep to Kanto faults. We therefore fit the seismicity observations to a rate/state Coulomb model, which we use to forecast the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes in the Kanto seismic corridor. We estimate a 17% probability of a M ? 7.0 shock over the 5 year prospective period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018, two-and-a-half times the probability had the Tohoku earthquake not struck.

  18. How do "ghost transients" from past earthquakes affect GPS slip rate estimates on southern California faults?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hearn, E. H.; Pollitz, F. F.; Thatcher, W. R.; Onishi, C. T.

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate the extent to which viscoelastic velocity perturbations (or "ghost transients") from individual fault segments can affect elastic block model-based inferences of fault slip rates from GPS velocity fields. We focus on the southern California GPS velocity field, exploring the effects of known, large earthquakes for two end-member rheological structures. Our approach is to compute, at each GPS site, the velocity perturbation relative to a cycle average for earthquake cycles on particular fault segments. We then correct the SCEC CMM4.0 velocity field for this perturbation and invert the corrected field for fault slip rates. We find that if asthenosphere viscosities are low (3 1018 Pa s), the current GPS velocity field is significantly perturbed by viscoelastic earthquake cycle effects associated with the San Andreas Fault segment that last ruptured in 1857 (Mw = 7.9). Correcting the GPS velocity field for this perturbation (or "ghost transient") adds about 5 mm/a to the SAF slip rate along the Mojave and San Bernardino segments. The GPS velocity perturbations due to large earthquakes on the Garlock Fault (most recently, events in the early 1600s) and the White Wolf Fault (most recently, the Mw = 7.3 1952 Kern County earthquake) are smaller and do not influence block-model inverted fault slip rates. This suggests that either the large discrepancy between geodetic and geologic slip rates for the Garlock Fault is not due to a ghost transient or that un-modeled transients from recent Mojave earthquakes may influence the GPS velocity field.

  19. Broadband records of earthquakes in deep gold mines and a comparison with results from SAFOD, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Boettcher, M.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Sell, R.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Durrheim, R.; Spottiswoode, S.; Milev, A.

    2009-01-01

    For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter Rv, where v is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6:3 m=sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4:0 m=sec.

  20. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: five case histories in Southern California.

    PubMed

    Keilis-Borok, V I; Shebalin, P N; Zaliapin, I V

    2002-12-24

    This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with "intermediate" lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic activity. Here, we look for a renormalization of these patterns that would reduce the predictive lead time from years to months. We demonstrate a combination of renormalized patterns that preceded within 1-7 months five large (M > or = 6.4) strike-slip earthquakes in southeastern California since 1960. An algorithm for short-term prediction is formulated. The algorithm is self-adapting to the level of seismicity: it can be transferred without readaptation from earthquake to earthquake and from area to area. Exhaustive retrospective tests show that the algorithm is stable to variations of its adjustable elements. This finding encourages further tests in other regions. The final test, as always, should be advance prediction. The suggested algorithm has a simple qualitative interpretation in terms of deformations around a soon-to-break fault: the blocks surrounding that fault began to move as a whole. A more general interpretation comes from the phenomenon of self-similarity since our premonitory patterns retain their predictive power after renormalization to smaller spatial and temporal scales. The suggested algorithm is designed to provide a short-term approximation to an intermediate-term prediction. It remains unclear whether it could be used independently. It seems worthwhile to explore similar renormalizations for other premonitory seismicity patterns. PMID:12482945

  1. Analysis of Foreshock Sequences in California and Implications for Earthquake Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaowei; Shearer, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    We analyze foreshock activity in California and compare observations with simulated catalogs based on a branching aftershock-triggering model. We first examine foreshock occurrence patterns for isolated M ≥ 5 earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2011 and in northern California from 1984 to 2009. Among the 64 M ≥ 5 mainshocks, excluding 3 swarms and 3 doubles, 53 % of the rest are preceded by at least one foreshock within 30 days and 5 km. Foreshock occurrence appears correlated with mainshock faulting type and depth. Foreshock area is correlated with the magnitude of the largest foreshock and the number of foreshocks, however, it is not correlated with mainshock magnitude. We then examine the occurrence pattern of all seismicity clusters without a minimum magnitude requirement, and the possibility that they are "foreshocks" of larger mainshocks. Only about 30 % of the small clusters lead to a larger cluster. About 66 % of the larger clusters have foreshock activities, and the spatial distribution pattern is similar to M ≥ 5 mainshocks, with lower occurrence rates in the Transverse Range and central California and higher occurrence rates in the Eastern California Shear Zone and the Bay Area. These results suggest that foreshock occurrence is largely controlled by the regional tectonic stress field and fault zone properties. In special cases, foreshock occurrence may be useful for short-term forecasting; however, foreshock properties are not reliably predictive of the magnitude of the eventual "mainshock". Comparison with simulated catalogs suggest that the "swarmy" features and foreshock occurrence rate in the observed catalogs are not well reproduced from common statistical models of earthquake triggering.

  2. Nonvolcanic Tremor Evolution and the San Simeon and Parkfield, California Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, R. M.; Guilhem, A.

    2009-12-01

    Nonvolcanic tremors have generally been observed in transition zones between freely slipping and locked faults, and in many cases tremor activity appears to increase with detectable transient fault zone deformation (slow-slip events) or with dynamic stress changes from tides or teleseismic surface waves. These spatial, temporal and stressing relationships suggest that tremor activity may be closely related to the processes related to the generation of larger earthquakes. Monitoring of the San Andreas Fault in the Parkfield-Cholame region of California reveals that after 2003 San Simeon M6.5 and 2004 Parkfield M6 earthquakes tremor activity increased in a nearly dormant tremor zone, increased and became periodic in a previously active zone and has remained elevated and periodic for over four years. Static shear- and Coulomb-stress increases from the earthquakes of 6-14 KPa are coincident with step increases in tremor rates. The persistent changes in tremor suggest that stress is now accumulating more rapidly beneath a portion of the San Andreas fault that last ruptured in the great M7.8 Ft. Tejon earthquake of 1857.

  3. Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Kanamori, H.

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal-volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes.

  4. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2010-12-01

    Currently the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 5000 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in the past year. Updated hardware: ? The SCEDC has more than doubled its waveform file storage capacity by migrating to 2 TB disks. New data holdings: ? Waveform data: Beginning Jan 1, 2010 the SCEDC began continuously archiving all high-sample-rate strong-motion channels. All seismic channels recorded by SCSN are now continuously archived and available at SCEDC. ? Portable data from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence: Seismic waveforms from portable stations installed by researchers (contributed by Elizabeth Cochran, Jamie Steidl, and Octavio Lazaro-Mancilla) have been added to the archive and are accessible through STP either as continuous data or associated with events in the SCEDC earthquake catalog. This additional data will help SCSN analysts and researchers improve event locations from the sequence. ? Real time GPS solutions from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 event: Three component 1Hz seismograms of California Real Time Network (CRTN) GPS stations, from the April 4, 2010, magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake are available in SAC format at the SCEDC. These time series were created by Brendan Crowell, Yehuda Bock, the project PI, and Mindy Squibb at SOPAC using data from the CRTN. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake demonstrated definitively the power of real-time high-rate GPS data: they measure dynamic displacements directly, they do not clip and they are also able to detect the permanent (coseismic) surface deformation. ? Triggered data from the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) and Community Seismic Network (CSN): The SCEDC in cooperation with QCN and CSN is exploring ways to archive and distribute data from high density low cost networks. As a starting point the SCEDC will store a dataset from QCN and CSN and distribute it through a separate STP client. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing waveform data using cloud computing such as Google Apps. A month of continuous data from the SCEDC archive will be stored in Google Apps and a client developed to access it in a manner similar to STP. XML formats: ? The SCEDC is now distributing earthquake parameter data through web services in QuakeML format. ? The SCEDC in collaboration with the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) and USGS Golden has reviewed and revised the StationXML format to produce version 2.0. The new version includes a rules on extending the schema, use of named complex types, and greater consistency in naming conventions. Based on this work we plan to develop readers and writers of the StationXML format.

  5. Wastewater disposal and earthquake swarm activity at the southern end of the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goebel, T. H. W.; Hosseini, S. M.; Cappa, F.; Hauksson, E.; Ampuero, J. P.; Aminzadeh, F.; Saleeby, J. B.

    2016-02-01

    Fracture and fault zones can channel fluid flow and transmit injection-induced pore pressure changes over large distances (>km), at which seismicity is rarely suspected to be human induced. We use seismicity analysis and hydrogeological models to examine the role of seismically active faults in inducing earthquakes. We analyze a potentially injection-induced earthquake swarm with three events above M4 near the White Wolf fault (WWF). The swarm deviates from classic main aftershock behavior, exhibiting uncharacteristically low Gutenberg-Richter b of 0.6, and systematic migration patterns. Some smaller events occurred southeast of the WWF in an area of several disposal wells, one of which became active just 5 months before the main swarm activity. Hydrogeological modeling revealed that wastewater disposal likely contributed to seismicity via localized pressure increase along a seismically active fault. Our results suggest that induced seismicity may remain undetected in California without detailed analysis of local geologic setting, seismicity, and fluid diffusion.

  6. Earthquake Propagation Observations and Ambient Noise Cross-Correlation from Dense Long Beach, California Seismic Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, J. P.; de Ridder, S.; Levin, S. A.; Biondi, B. C.

    2012-12-01

    In January 2012, a 3D seismic array was deployed in Long Beach, California by Signal Hill Petroleum, Inc. The array consists of about 2400 vertical-component geophones, with an average station spacing of 330 m. Data are being continuously recorded (24 hours/day) over a span of four months, making the resulting data ideal for earthquake research and exploration seismology. Here we provide results related to both fields. We present waveforms recorded from earthquakes both near (less than 15 km) and far (greater than 250 km) from the array. For some events, we applied low-pass filters to accentuate the incoming waveforms. In order to retrieve Green's functions between receivers, we perform cross-correlation of recorded ambient noise that has been band-passed for low frequencies. We observe that the resulting wavefronts preferably travel toward the northeast, suggesting that noise at low frequencies is primarily generated by the Pacific Ocean.

  7. Cruise report for A1-00-SC southern California earthquake hazards project, part A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutmacher, Christina E.; Normark, William R.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Edwards, Brian D.; Sliter, Ray; Hart, Patrick; Cooper, Becky; Childs, Jon; Reid, Jane A.

    2000-01-01

    A three-week cruise to obtain high-resolution boomer and multichannel seismic-reflection profiles supported two project activities of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) evaluating the earthquake and related geologic hazards posed by faults in the near offshore area of southern California and (2) determining the pathways through which sea-water is intruding into aquifers of Los Angeles County in the area of the Long Beach and Los Angeles harbors. The 2000 cruise, A1-00-SC, is the third major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b); one more cruise is planned for 2002. This report deals primarily with the shipboard operations related to the earthquake-hazard activity. The sea-water intrusion survey is confined to shallow water and the techniques used are somewhat different from that of the hazards survey (see Edwards et al., in preparation).

  8. Systematic search for missing earthquakes in Central California around the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Yu, X.; Hong, B.

    2012-12-01

    Whether static or dynamic triggering is the dominant triggering mechanism in near field is still under debate. The key factor to differentiate the two triggering mechanisms is the 'stress shadow', where the static stress and seismicity rate both decrease. However, clear evidence of 'stress shadows' is very difficult to obtain, because it requires high seismicity rate before the mainshock. An ideal condition to find 'stress shadows' is where two large earthquakes occurred close in space and time within a dense seismic networks. In this case, if the static triggering is dominant, the seismicity rate in certain regions could be promoted by the first earthquake and then stifled by the second one. The 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes, which are separated only by 9 months and ~60 km, fulfill such requirements and hence could be a perfect case to test earthquake triggering mechanisms. However, existing earthquake catalogs are incomplete immediately following large earthquakes, mainly due to extreme high seismicity rate and masking from the coda wave of the mainshock and large aftershocks. Discovering those missing earthquakes is crucial for obtaining the genuine seismicity rate changes and therefore further understanding of physical mechanisms of earthquake triggering. In this study, we apply the recent matched filter technique to systematically search for missing earthquakes from a half-year before the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon earthquake to a half-year after the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake. We use ~50,000 template events covering a wide region in Central California and run the detection codes on multiple GPU cards, which has significantly reduced the computation time. Preliminary results show that 8048 events are detected by the matched filter technique two days before and after the Parkfield mainshock, which is ~8 times more than listed in Northern California Seismic Network catalog. With the more complete earthquake catalog, we will be able to examine the correspondence between the genuine seismicity rate and stress changes pattern after the Parkfield earthquake, which could help to contribute to the aforementioned debate on static vs. dynamic triggering of aftershocks and triggered seismicity.

  9. Determination of the most probable slip surface in 3D slopes considering the effect of earthquake force direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahangar-Asr, A.; Toufigh, M. M.; Salajegheh, A.

    2012-08-01

    Considering the effect of earthquake forces on stability of slopes has always been of crucial importance in seismic analysis of geotechnical structures like dams, roads and embankments and there has been much concern about stability of cuts, fills and natural slopes under earthquake loadings in recent years. In this research a three-dimensional approach in conjunction with genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed to investigate the effect of earthquake force inclination on minimum stability factor of safety and the shape and direction of the corresponding failure surface. The stability factor of safety was considered to be a function of soil properties, slope dimensions, coordination of the nodal points on the slip surface mesh and their rotation angle to the rotation centre, magnitude of pseudo-static coefficient and the inclination of earthquake forces. The proposed methodology was found to be very effective in determining the minimum stability factor of safety and the corresponding most probable slip surface considering pseudo-static analysis of slopes under inclined earthquake forces.

  10. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  11. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  12. Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the Mw 7.3 Landers, California earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, Joan

    1996-01-01

    Calculations of dynamic stresses and strains, constrained by broadband seismograms, are used to investigate their role in generating the remotely triggered seismicity that followed the June 28, 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California earthquake. I compare straingrams and dynamic Coulomb failure functions calculated for the Landers earthquake at sites that did experience triggered seismicity with those at sites that did not. Bounds on triggering thresholds are obtained from analysis of dynamic strain spectra calculated for the Landers and Mw6.1 Joshua Tree, California earthquakes at various sites, combined with results of static strain investigations by others. I interpret three principal results of this study with those of a companion study by Gomberg and Davis [this issue]. First, the dynamic elastic stress changes themselves cannot explain the spatial distribution of triggered seismicity, particularly the lack of triggered activity along the San Andreas fault system. In addition to the requirement to exceed a Coulomb failure stress level, this result implies the need to invoke and satisfy the requirements of appropriate slip instability theory. Second, results of this study are consistent with the existence of frequency- or rate-dependent stress/strain triggering thresholds, inferred from the companion study and interpreted in terms of earthquake initiation involving a competition of processes, one promoting failure and the other inhibiting it. Such competition is also part of relevant instability theories. Third, the triggering threshold must vary from site to site, suggesting that the potential for triggering strongly depends on site characteristics and response. The lack of triggering along the San Andreas fault system may be correlated with the advanced maturity of its fault gouge zone; the strains from the Landers earthquake were either insufficient to exceed its larger critical slip distance or some other critical failure parameter; or the faults failed stably as aseismic creep events. Variations in the triggering threshold at sites of triggered seismicity may be attributed to variations in gouge zone development and properties. Finally, these interpretations provide ready explanations for the time delays between the Landers earthquake and the triggered events.

  13. Web Services and Data Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Lombard, P. N.; Allen, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC offers the following web services that are compliant with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services specifications: (1) fdsn-dataselect: time series data delivered in MiniSEED format, (2) fdsn-station: station and channel metadata and time series availability delivered in StationXML format, (3) fdsn-event: earthquake event information delivered in QuakeML format. In addition, the NCEDC offers the the following IRIS-compatible web services: (1) sacpz: provide channel gains, poles, and zeros in SAC format, (2) resp: provide channel response information in RESP format, (3) dataless: provide station and channel metadata in Dataless SEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a web service to deliver timeseries from pre-assembled event waveform gathers. The NCEDC has waveform gathers for ~750,000 northern and central California events from 1984 to the present, many of which were created by the USGS NCSN prior to the establishment of the joint NCSS (Northern California Seismic System). We are currently adding waveforms to these older event gathers with time series from the UCB networks and other networks with waveforms archived at the NCEDC, and ensuring that the waveform for each channel in the event gathers have the highest quality waveform from the archive.

  14. Archiving and Distributing Seismic Data at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appel, V. L.

    2002-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network and since January 1, 2001, the TriNet seismic network, southern California's earthquake monitoring network. The parametric data in the archive includes earthquake locations, magnitudes, moment-tensor solutions and phase picks. The SCEDC waveform archive prior to TriNet consists primarily of short-period, 100-samples-per-second waveforms from the SCSN. The addition of the TriNet array added continuous recordings of 155 broadband stations (20 samples per second or less), and triggered seismograms from 200 accelerometers and 200 short-period instruments. Since the Data Center and TriNet use the same Oracle database system, new earthquake data are available to the seismological community in near real-time. Primary access to the database and waveforms is through the Seismogram Transfer Program (STP) interface. The interface enables users to search the database for earthquake information, phase picks, and continuous and triggered waveform data. Output is available in SAC, miniSEED, and other formats. Both the raw counts format (V0) and the gain-corrected format (V1) of COSMOS (Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems) are now supported by STP. EQQuest is an interface to prepackaged waveform data sets for select earthquakes in Southern California stored at the SCEDC. Waveform data for large-magnitude events have been prepared and new data sets will be available for download in near real-time following major events. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 9.2.0.1 database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. The DISC optical-disk system (the "jukebox") that currently serves as the mass-storage for the SCEDC is in the process of being replaced with a series of inexpensive high-capacity (1.6 Tbyte) magnetic-disk RAIDs. These systems are built with PC-technology components, using 16 120-Gbyte IDE disks, hot-swappable disk trays, two RAID controllers, dual redundant power supplies and a Linux operating system. The system is configured over a private gigabit network that connects to the two Data Center servers and spans between the Seismological Lab and the USGS. To ensure data integrity, each RAID disk system constantly checks itself against its twin and verifies file integrity using 128-bit MD5 file checksums that are stored separate from the system. The final level of data protection is a Sony AIT-3 tape backup of the files. The primary advantage of the magnetic-disk approach is faster data access because magnetic disk drives have almost no latency. This means that the SCEDC can provide better "on-demand" interactive delivery of the seismograms in the archive.

  15. GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

  16. Preseismic and coseismic magnetic field measurements near the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake of August 6, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mueller, R.J.; Keller, V.

    1981-02-10

    The epicenter of the Coyote Lake earthquake (M/sub L/ = 5.9 +- 0.2) of August 6, 1979, is located within an array of recording magnetometers which has been in operation since 1974. The nearest instrument, COY, was within 5 km of the epicenter. It was installed in October 1978 and is located on sedimentary rock, although volcanic and ultramafic rocks with magnetizations of up to 1 A/m outcrop 2 km to the west. A second recording magnetometer was operated for 18 days, beginning 4 days after the main event, to record the latter stages of the aftershock activity. Although longer-term magnetic field variations were recorded at station COY early in 1979 relative to other sites in the area, no anomalous changes within the two months prior to the earthquake were obeserved outside the present measurement uncertainty of 0.8 nT for hourly average differences. During the late aftershock stage, no magnetic field change greater than 0.25 nT occurred for more than a day. We conclude that in contrast to the 2-nT change observed before a previous M = 5.2 earthquake near Hollister, California, no demonstrable preseismic, coseismic, or postseismic tectonomagnetic effect was detected. A reasonable seismomagnetic model of the earthquake indicates that station COY was poorly located to detect stress-generated magnetic perturbations from this earthquake. Using a magnetization distribution indicated by modeling the aeromagnetic data over the area, we have calculated that homogeneous shear stress changes of about 5 MPa or greater would have been necessary to produce any observable effect at COY. This change is stress is precluded by geodetic data from over the area. However, COY is ideally situated for detection of electrokinetically generated magnetic anomalies. This initial null observation indicates that the assumptions used in the calculation of electrokinetic effects have, in this case, not been satisfied.

  17. Repeating Earthquake and Nonvolcanic Tremor Observations of Aseismic Deep Fault Transients in Central California.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, R. M.; Traer, M.; Guilhem, A.

    2005-12-01

    Seismic indicators of fault zone deformation can complement geodetic measurements by providing information on aseismic transient deformation: 1) from deep within the fault zone, 2) on a regional scale, 3) with intermediate temporal resolution (weeks to months) and 4) that spans over 2 decades (1984 to early 2005), including pre- GPS and INSAR coverage. Along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California, two types of seismic indicators are proving to be particularly useful for providing information on deep fault zone deformation. The first, characteristically repeating microearthquakes, provide long-term coverage (decades) on the evolution of aseismic fault slip rates at seismogenic depths along a large (~175 km) stretch of the SAF between the rupture zones of the ~M8 1906 San Francisco and 1857 Fort Tejon earthquakes. In Cascadia and Japan the second type of seismic indicator, nonvolcanic tremors, have shown a remarkable correlation between their activity rates and GPS and tiltmeter measurements of transient deformation in the deep (sub-seismogenic) fault zone. This correlation suggests that tremor rate changes and deep transient deformation are intimately related and that deformation associated with the tremor activity may be stressing the seismogenic zone in both areas. Along the SAF, nonvolcanic tremors have only recently been discovered (i.e., in the Parkfield-Cholame area), and knowledge of their full spatial extent is still relatively limited. Nonetheless the observed temporal correlation between earthquake and tremor activity in this area is consistent with a model in which sub-seismogenic deformation and seismogenic zone stress changes are closely related. We present observations of deep aseismic transient deformation associated with the 28 September 2004, M6 Parkfield earthquake from both repeating earthquake and nonvolcanic tremor data. Also presented are updated deep fault slip rate estimates from prepeating quakes in the San Juan Bautista area with an assessment of their significance to previously reported quasi-periodic slip rate pulses and small to moderate magnitude (> M3.5) earthquake occurrence in the area.

  18. A Strong Stress Shadow Effect from the 1992 M=7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toda, S.; Stein, R. S.; Beroza, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    Both dynamic and static stress have the potential to trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock. It has, however, proven extraordinarily difficult to disentangle their contribution to aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. There are nevertheless ways to discriminate between the two: Only dynamic stress can trigger quakes in the far field (tens of rupture dimensions from the source), and only static stress has an identified physical mechanism to produce stress shadows, areas where the stress is calculated to have dropped. The seismicity rate would be expected to drop in the stress shadows, and so they provide a key falsification test of the static stress hypothesis, and thus have been subject to intensive investigation and debate. Here we show that where the April 1992 Mw=6.1 Joshua Tree, California, aftershock zone was subjected to a static stress increase from the June 1992 Mw=7.3 Landers earthquake, the rate of aftershocks jumped, and where the aftershock zone was subjected to a static stress decrease on the likely earthquake nodal planes, seismicity abruptly shut down. This stress shadow interaction was first noted by Zanzerkia (Stanford Univ. Ph.D. thesis, 2003), and was subsequently investigated by Marsan and Nalbant (PAGEOPH, 2005); we have deepened these analyses by carrying out a systematic search of the source, receiver, and focal mechanism diversity, and a time and space study of catalog completeness. The sudden arrest of seismicity in the Joshua Tree aftershock zone upon the Landers earthquake demonstrates that static stress is a requisite—but not necessarily exclusive—element of earthquake triggering.

  19. Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

    1996-01-01

    A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

  20. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaosong; Du, Shuming; Ma, Jin

    2004-06-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability PM(T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction. PMID:15245263

  1. Surface Deformation in Paso Robles, California, Associated with the December 22, 2003 San Simeon Earthquake from RADARSAT-1 Interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wicks, C.

    2006-12-01

    On December 22, 2003 a magnitude (Mw) 6.5 earthquake struck the central California coast in a sparsely populated area NE of San Simeon, California (Figure 1). In the city of Paso Robles (population ~28,000), about 39 km ESE of the epicenter, the two deaths caused by the earthquake occurred in the collapse of a building. The city was also the locus of the maximum building damage sustained during the earthquake. To gain insight into the cause of the damage focused on Paso Robles, I use Canadian Space Agency RADARSAT-1 images, made available by NASA through the Alaska Satellite Facility, to study earthquake related surface deformation in the area. RADARSAT interferograms reveal two areas of apparent subsidence that are related to the earthquake, but separate from the main co-seismic deformation signal. One area in Templeton, California, ~8 km south of Paso Robles, coincides with the highest measurement of peak ground acceleration where the measured subsidence is most likely the result of an earthquake induced compaction event. The other area of subsidence, is concentrated in the southern half of the city of Paso Robles. The area of subsidence in Paso Robles is bounded on the NE by a steep NW trending gradient that corresponds with (and parallels) the trend of four new hot springs that formed immediately after the San Simeon earthquake (Wang et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2004). The steep deformation gradient also corresponds to the area of maximum damage and the location where the two earthquake related deaths occurred. The volume of the displaced surface area corresponds well with the amount of fluid produced by a hot spring that has been flowing continuously since it began flowing immediately after the San Simeon earthquake.

  2. The 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    We test the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions by examining the relationship between two large earthquakes that occurred in the Mojave Desert of southern California, the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. We want to determine if the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake occurred at a location where the Coulomb stress was increased (earthquake advance, stress trigger) or decreased (earthquake delay, stress shadow) by the previous large earthquake. Using four models of the Landers rupture and a range of possible hypocentral planes for the Hector Mine earthquake, we discover that most scenarios yield a Landers-induced relaxation (stress shadow) on the Hector Mine hypocentral plane. Although this result would seem to weigh against the stress shadow hypothesis, the results become considerably more uncertain when the effects of a nearby Landers aftershock, the 1992 ML 5.4 Pisgah earthquake, are taken into account. We calculate the combined static Coulomb stress changes due to the Landers and Pisgah earthquakes to range from -0.3 to +0.3 MPa (- 3 to +3 bars) at the possible Hector Mine hypocenters, depending on choice of rupture model and hypocenter. These varied results imply that the Hector Mine earthquake does not provide a good test of the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions. We use a simple approach, that of static dislocations in an elastic half-space, yet we still obtain a wide range of both negative and positive Coulomb stress changes. Our findings serve as a caution that more complex models purporting to explain the triggering or shadowing relationship between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes need to also consider the parametric and geometric uncertainties raised here.

  3. Introducing ShakeMap to potential users in Puerto Rico using scenarios of damaging historical and probable earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huerfano, V. A.; Cua, G.; von Hillebrandt, C.; Saffar, A.

    2007-12-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has a long history of damaging earthquakes. Major earthquakes from off-shore sources have affected Puerto Rico in 1520, 1615, 1670, 1751, 1787, 1867, and 1918 (Mueller et al, 2003; PRSN Catalogue). Recent trenching has also yielded evidence of possible M7.0 events inland (Prentice, 2000). The high seismic hazard, large population, high tsunami potential and relatively poor construction practice can result in a potentially devastating combination. Efficient emergency response in event of a large earthquake will be crucial to minimizing the loss of life and disruption of lifeline systems in Puerto Rico. The ShakeMap system (Wald et al, 2004) developed by the USGS to rapidly display and disseminate information about the geographical distribution of ground shaking (and hence potential damage) following a large earthquake has proven to be a vital tool for post earthquake emergency response efforts, and is being adopted/emulated in various seismically active regions worldwide. Implementing a robust ShakeMap system is among the top priorities of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. However, the ultimate effectiveness of ShakeMap in post- earthquake response depends not only on its rapid availability, but also on the effective use of the information it provides. We developed ShakeMap scenarios of a suite of damaging historical and probable earthquakes that severely impact San Juan, Ponce, and Mayagüez, the 3 largest cities in Puerto Rico. Earthquake source parameters were obtained from McCann and Mercado (1998); and Huérfano (2004). For historical earthquakes that generated tsunamis, tsunami inundation maps were generated using the TIME method (Shuto, 1991). The ShakeMap ground shaking maps were presented to local and regional governmental and emergency response agencies at the 2007 Annual conference of the Puerto Rico Emergency Management and Disaster Administration in San Juan, PR, and at numerous other emergency management talks and training sessions. Economic losses are estimated using the ShakeMap scenario ground motions (Saffar, 2007). The calibration tasks necessary in generating these scenarios (developing Vs30 maps, attenuation relationships) complement the on-going efforts of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network to generate ShakeMaps in real-time.

  4. Basin Waves on a Seafloor Recording of the 1990 Upland, California, Earthquake: Implications for Ground Motions from a Larger Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.

    1999-01-01

    The velocity and displacement time series from a recording on the seafloor at 74 km from the 1990 Upland earthquake (M = 5.6) are dominated by late-arriving waves with periods of 6 to 7 sec. These waves are probably surface waves traveling across the Los Angeles basin. Response spectra for the recording are in agreement with predictions from empirical regression equations and theoretical models for periods less than about 1 sec but are significantly larger than those predictions for longer periods. The longer-period spectral amplitudes are controlled by the late-arriving waves, which are not included in the theoretical models and are underrepresented in the data used in the empirical analyses. When the motions are scaled to larger magnitude, the results are in general agreement with simulations of wave propagation in the Los Angeles basin by Graves (1998).

  5. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel time of the seismic waves to the nearest station and will increase the reliability of the early warning with multiple measurements from more than one reporting station. * New server hardware: will allow for separate software development, testing/integration of algorithms and production systems capable of testing with current as well as playback of historical data. Also the new systems will be used to develop and test new EEW algorithms like slip detection (GPSlip) and Finite-Fault Rupture Detection (FinDer). * Standardization and Security: the new systems will allow us to standardize on hardware installation and configuration procedures. It will also enable us to implement the latest computer and network security measures to secure the data and internal processing from malicious threats. * System architecture: the new hardware will allow us to port existing EEW algorithms from Solaris to Linux. The new equipment will also allow us to experiment with different system architecture configurations like redundant servers with fail-over capabilities for the production EEW system. When installed the new and upgraded seismic dataloggers and GPS stations as well as the new server hardware will greatly improve the EEW capabilities of the SCSN network and the CISN ShakeAlert system in general providing more resilience, robustness and redundancy in the system.

  6. Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, S. E.; Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

    2011-12-01

    Currently, the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 8400 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 6.4 TB of continuous waveforms and 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC during 2011. New website design: ? The SCEDC has revamped its website. The changes make it easier for users to search the archive, discover updates and new content. These changes also improve our ability to manage and update the site. New data holdings: ? Post processing on El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence continues. To date there have been 11847 events reviewed. Updates are available in the earthquake catalog immediately. ? A double difference catalog (Hauksson et. al 2011) spanning 1981 to 6/30/11 will be available for download at www.data.scec.org and available via STP. ? A focal mechanism catalog determined by Yang et al. 2011 is available for distribution at www.data.scec.org. ? Waveforms from Southern California NetQuake stations are now being stored in the SCEDC archive and available via STP as event associated waveforms. Amplitudes from these stations are also being stored in the archive and used by ShakeMap. ? As part of a NASA/AIST project in collaboration with JPL and SIO, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP. Improvements in the user tool STP: ? STP sac output now includes picks from the SCSN. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing waveform data using cloud computing such as Google Apps. A month of continuous data from the SCEDC archive will be stored in Google Apps and a client developed to access it in a manner similar to STP. The data is stored in miniseed format with gzip compression. Time gaps between time series were padded with null values, which substantially increases search efficiency by make the records uniform in length.

  7. Reply to Comment on Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes? From A.D. Frankel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, Seth; Tomasello, Joseph; Newman, Andrew

    Carl Sagan observed that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In our view, A.D. Frankel's arguments (see accompanying Comment piece) do not reach the level required to demonstrate the counter-intuitive propositions that the earthquake hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comparable to that in coastal California, and that buildings should be built to similar standards.This interchange is the latest in an ongoing debate beginning with Newman et al.'s [1999a] recommendation, based on analysis of Global Positioning System and earthquake data, that Frankel et al.'s [1996] estimate of California-level seismic hazard for the NMSZ should be reduced. Most points at issue, except for those related to the costs and benefits of the proposed new International Building Code 2000, have already been argued at length by both sides in the literature [e.g.,Schweig et al., 1999; Newman et al., 1999b, 2001; Cramer, 2001]. Hence,rather than rehash these points, we will try here to provide readers not enmeshed in this morass with an overview of the primary differences between our view and that of Frankel.

  8. Turbidity anomaly and probability of slope failure following the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noguchi, T.; Tanikawa, W.; Hirose, T.; Lin, W.; Kawagucci, S.; Yoshida, Y.; Honda, M. C.; Takai, K.; Kitazato, H.; Okamura, K.

    2011-12-01

    Turbidity anomaly at seafloor is often observed immediately after earthquakes (Thunnell et al., 1999: Mikada et al., 2006). Such turbidity anomaly at deepsea is thought to be results of the seismically induced landslides at trench slopes. Turbidity distribution was observed using turbidity meter (Seapoint Sensors Inc.) at the mainshock area of the 2011 off the Pacific coast Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) one month after the event. Turbidity anomalies, in which the turbidity increased with depth, were observed near the seafloor at all four sites. The thickness of the anomalous zones increased with water depth; the thickness at station B, the deepest measurement site, was about 1300 m above the seafloor and the average particle concentration which is equivalent to turbidity in the zone was 1.5 mg/L. We analyzed the mineral composition and grain size distribution of the suspended particle collected one month after the earthquake and shallow sediment core collected before the earthquake at the mainshock area. The grain size of the suspended particles was ranged from 1 to 300?m, and XRD analysis confirmed the presence of chlorite, illite, quartz, and albite in the particles. These characteristics are similar to the subsurface sediment material. Earlier studies (Prior, 1984) have introduced a mathematical model for analysis of submarine slope stability that include the effect of vertical and horizontal seismic accelerations caused by the earthquake. We analyzed slope instability on the basis of their model using the physical properties (density and shear strength) of the shallow sediment core materials and the acceleration of 2011 off the Pacific coast Tohoku earthquake. Our results show that a submarine landslide can be induced by a very large ground acceleration, as high as 3 m/s2, even if the sediment layer on the sliding surface is not very thick. We interpret the high turbidity observed one month after the Tohoku earthquake as the result of thin submarine landsliding. Reference Mikada, H. K. Mitsuzawa, H. Matsumoto, T. Watanabe, S. Morita, R. Otsuka, H. Sugioka, T. Baba, E. Araki, K. Suyehiro, (2006), New discoveries in dynamics of an M8 earthquake-phenomena and their implications from the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake using a long term monitoring cabled observatory, Tectonophysics, 426, 95-105. Prior, D. B. (1984), Methods of stability analysis, in Slope Instability, Edited by Brunsden, D. and D. B. Prior, pp. 419-455, Wiley, New York. Thunnell, R., E. Tappa, R. Varela, M. Llano, Y. Astor, F. Muller-Karger, and R. Bohrer (1999), Increased marine sediment suspension and fluxes following an earthquake. Nature, 398, 233-236.

  9. Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goff, John A.; Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The source parameters of 19 large earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from inversions of long-period P and SH waveforms. The goal was to understand the recent slip history of this dominantly transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates as well as the effect on earthquake characteristics of the transition from young oceanic to continental lithosphere. For the better recorded transform events, the fault strike is resolved to + or - 4 deg at 90 percent confidence. The slip vectors thus provide important constraints on the direction of relative plate motion. Most centroid depths are poorly resolved because of tradeoffs between depth and source time function. On the basis of waveform modeling, historical seismicity, and other factors, it is appropriate to divide the Gulf into three distinct zones. The difference in seismic character among the three zones is likely the result of differing levels of maturity of the processes of rifting, generation of oceanic crust, and formation of stable oceanic transform faults. The mechanism of an earthquake on the Tres Marias Escarpment is characterized by thrust faulting and likely indicates the direction of relative motion between the Rivera and North American plates. This mechanism requires revision in plate velocity models which predict strike slip motion at this location.

  10. Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David; Trugman, Daniel; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan; Johnson, Paul

    2015-08-01

    Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ˜730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

  11. A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rundle, John B.

    1988-01-01

    The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

  12. Holocene paleoseismicity, temporal clustering, and probabilities of future large (M > 7) earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCalpin, J.P.; Nishenko, S.P.

    1996-01-01

    The chronology of M>7 paleoearthquakes on the central five segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the best dated in the world and contains 16 earthquakes in the past 5600 years with an average repeat time of 350 years. Repeat times for individual segments vary by a factor of 2, and range from about 1200 to 2600 years. Four of the central five segments ruptured between ??? 620??30 and 1230??60 calendar years B.P. The remaining segment (Brigham City segment) has not ruptured in the past 2120??100 years. Comparison of the WFZ space-time diagram of paleoearthquakes with synthetic paleoseismic histories indicates that the observed temporal clusters and gaps have about an equal probability (depending on model assumptions) of reflecting random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion. Regional seismicity suggests that for exposure times of 50 and 100 years, the probability for an earthquake of M>7 anywhere within the Wasatch Front region, based on a Poisson model, is 0.16 and 0.30, respectively. A fault-specific WFZ model predicts 50 and 100 year probabilities for a M>7 earthquake on the WFZ itself, based on a Poisson model, as 0.13 and 0.25, respectively. In contrast, segment-specific earthquake probabilities that assume quasi-periodic recurrence behavior on the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments are less (0.01-0.07 in 100 years) than the regional or fault-specific estimates (0.25-0.30 in 100 years), due to the short elapsed times compared to average recurrence intervals on those segments. The Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, however, have time-dependent probabilities that approach or exceed the regional and fault specific probabilities. For the Salt Lake City segment, these elevated probabilities are due to the elapsed time being approximately equal to the average late Holocene recurrence time. For the Brigham City segment, the elapsed time is significantly longer than the segment-specific late Holocene recurrence time.

  13. High precision earthquake locations reveal seismogenic structure beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prejean, S.; Stork, A.; Ellsworth, W.; Hill, D.; Julian, B.

    2003-01-01

    In 1989, an unusual earthquake swarm occurred beneath Mammoth Mountain that was probably associated with magmatic intrusion. To improve our understanding of this swarm, we relocated Mammoth Mountain earthquakes using a double difference algorithm. Relocated hypocenters reveal that most earthquakes occurred on two structures, a near-vertical plane at 7-9 km depth that has been interpreted as an intruding dike, and a circular ring-like structure at ???5.5 km depth, above the northern end of the inferred dike. Earthquakes on this newly discovered ring structure form a conical section that dips outward away from the aseismic interior. Fault-plane solutions indicate that in 1989 the seismicity ring was slipping as a ring-normal fault as the center of the mountain rose with respect to the surrounding crust. Seismicity migrated around the ring, away from the underlying dike at a rate of ???0.4 km/month, suggesting that fluid movement triggered seismicity on the ring fault. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  15. Earthquakes

    MedlinePLUS

    ... Winter Weather Information on Specific Types of Emergencies Earthquakes Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... even building collapse) if you immediately: Before an Earthquake Being Prepared Emergency Supplies Home Hazards During an ...

  16. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project: Investigating Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuis, G. S.; Goldman, M.; Sickler, R. R.; Catchings, R. D.; Rymer, M. J.; Rose, E. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Butcher, L. A.; Cotton, J. A.; Criley, C. J.; Croker, D. S.; Emmons, I.; Ferguson, A. J.; Gardner, M. A.; Jensen, E. G.; McClearn, R.; Loughran, C. L.; Slayday-Criley, C. J.; Svitek, J. F.; Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Skinner, S. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Babcock, J. M.; Kent, G.; Kell, A. M.; Harder, S. H.

    2011-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) is a collaborative effort between academia and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide detailed, subsurface 3-D images of the Salton Trough of southern California and northern Mexico. From both active- and passive-source seismic data that were acquired both onshore and offshore (Salton Sea), the resulting images will provide insights into earthquake hazards, rift processes, and rift-transform interaction at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. The southernmost San Andreas Fault (SAF) is considered to be at high-risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet the structure of this and other regional faults and that of adjacent sedimentary basins is not currently well understood. Seismic data were acquired from 2 to 18 March 2011. One hundred and twenty-six borehole explosions (10-1400 kg yield) were detonated along seven profiles in the Salton Trough region, extending from area of Palm Springs, California, to the southwestern tip of Arizona. Airguns (1500 and 3500 cc) were fired along two profiles in the Salton Sea and at points in a 2-D array in the southern Salton Sea. Approximately 2800 seismometers were deployed at over 4200 locations throughout the Salton Trough region, and 48 ocean-bottom seismometers were deployed at 78 locations beneath the Salton Sea. Many of the onshore explosions were energetic enough to be recorded and located by the Southern California Seismograph Network. The geometry of the SAF has important implications for energy radiation in the next major rupture. Prior potential field, seismicity, and InSAR data indicate that the SAF may dip moderately to the northeast from the Salton Sea to Cajon Pass in the Transverse Ranges. Much of SSIP was designed to test models of this geometry.

  17. Three-dimensional fluid mapping and earthquake probabilities for induced seismicity sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.

    2010-12-01

    To stimulate the reservoir for a proposed enhanced geothermal system (EGS) project in the City of Basel, approximately 11500 m3 of water were injected at high pressures into a 5 km deep well between December 2nd and 8th, 2006. A six-sensor borehole array, installed by Geothermal Explorers Limited at depths between 50 and 2700 meters around the well to monitor the induced seismicity, recorded some 15000 events during the injection phase, more than 3500 of them locatable. The induced seismicity covers an area of about two square kilometers between 3 and 5 km depth. Water injection was stopped after a widely felt ML 3.4 event that occurred on December 8th. Here, we map in space and time statistical parameters that describe the seismicity, such as the magnitude of completeness, Mc the b- and a- value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the local probability of large events. We find that the completeness level varies from Mc= 0.5 to Mc=0.8, where the lowest completeness is observed for the shallowest seismicity. Higher b-values are located close to the initiation point of the injection at the casing shoe. With time, and with the gradual expansion of the seismicity, the b-values decrease near the edges of the seismicity cloud. The b-values range from 1.0 to above 2.0; large events occur preferentially in regions of previously low b-value. The local earthquake probabilities for a larger (M3+) event determined from the local a- and b-value show a clear correlation with the occurrence of events in this magnitude range, suggesting that by mapping the local a- and b-values, large magnitude events could be forecasted with greater accuracy than possible when using bulk values only. There are several different hypotheses how to explain induced seismicity, including increasing pore pressure, temperature decrease, volume changes and chemical alterations of fraction surfaces. All of these are linked to the fluid migration within the rock. Previously, high b-values have been shown to correlate with the presence of magma and fluids in volcanic areas and subduction zones. Additionally, b-values have been shown to be inversely proportional to the applied shear stress. Our results indicate that often-stated assumption that induced sequences are showing a high b-value is too simplistic. Rather, anomalously high values close to the casing shoe are embedded in average values further away. These zones of high b-values experience the highest changes in pore pressure, we therefore suggest a correlation between b-values and pore pressure. Towards the rim of seismicity, we find lower b-values, close to typical tectonic values, indicating that the seismicity may not primarily be caused by fluid overpressure. Based on our results, we suggest that b-values are linked to fluid migration; zones with high b-values indicate preferential fluid flow directions, zones with low b-values suggest seismicity that is not directly linked to water flow.

  18. Earthquake geology of the northern San Andreas Fault near Point Arena, California

    SciTech Connect

    Prentice, C.S.

    1989-01-01

    Excavations into a Holocene alluvial fan provided exposures of a record of prehistoric earthquakes near Point Arena, California. At least five earthquakes were recognized in the section. All of these occurred since the deposition of a unit that is approximately 2000 years old. Radiocarbon dating allows constraints to be placed on the dates of these earthquakes. A buried Holocene (2356-2709 years old) channel has been offset a maximum of 64 {plus minus} 2 meters. This implies a maximum slip rate of 25.5 {plus minus} 2.5 mm/yr. These data suggest that the average recurrence interval for great earthquakes on this segment of the San Andreas fault is long - between about 200 and 400 years. Offset marine terrace risers near Point Arena and an offset landslide near Fort Ross provide estimates of the average slip rate since Late Pleistocene time. Near Fort Ross, an offset landslide implies a slip rate of less than 39 mm/yr. Correlation and age estimates of two marine terrace risers across the San Andreas fault near Point Arena suggest slip rates of about 18-19 mm/yr since Late Pleistocene time. Tentative correlation of the Pliocene Ohlson Ranch Formation in northwestern Sonoma County with deposits 50 km to the northwest near Point Arean, provides piercing points to use in calculation of a Pliocene slip rate for the northern San Andreas fault. A fission-track age 3.3 {plus minus} 0.8 Ma was determined for zicrons separated from a tuff collected from the Ohlson Ranch Formation. The geomorphology of the region, especially of the two major river drainages, supports the proposed 50 km Pliocene offset. This implies a Pliocene slip rate of at least 12-20 mm/yr. These rates for different time periods imply that much of the Pacific-North American plate motion must be accommodated on other structures at this latitude.

  19. Source processes of industrially-induced earthquakes at the Geysers geothermal area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1999-01-01

    Microearthquake activity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, mirrors the steam production rate, suggesting that the earthquakes are industrially induced. A 15-station network of digital, three-component seismic stations was operated for one month in 1991, and 3,900 earthquakes were recorded. Highly-accurate moment tensors were derived for 30 of the best recorded earthquakes by tracing rays through tomographically derived 3-D VP and VP / VS structures, and inverting P-and S-wave polarities and amplitude ratios. The orientations of the P-and T-axes are very scattered, suggesting that there is no strong, systematic deviatoric stress field in the reservoir, which could explain why the earthquakes are not large. Most of the events had significant non-double-couple (non-DC) components in their source mechanisms with volumetric components up to ???30% of the total moment. Explosive and implosive sources were observed in approximately equal numbers, and must be caused by cavity creation (or expansion) and collapse. It is likely that there is a causal relationship between these processes and fluid reinjection and steam withdrawal. Compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components were up to 100% of the deviatoric component. Combinations of opening cracks and shear faults cannot explain all the observations, and rapid fluid flow may also be involved. The pattern of non-DC failure at The Geysers contrasts with that of the Hengill-Grensdalur area in Iceland, a largely unexploited water-dominated field in an extensional stress regime. These differences are poorly understood but may be linked to the contrasting regional stress regimes and the industrial exploitation at The Geysers.

  20. A new method to identify earthquake swarms applied to seismicity near the San Jacinto Fault, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiong; Shearer, Peter M.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding earthquake clustering in space and time is important but also challenging because of complexities in earthquake patterns and the large and diverse nature of earthquake catalogs. Swarms are of particular interest because they likely result from physical changes in the crust, such as slow slip or fluid flow. Both swarms and clusters resulting from aftershock sequences can span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Here we test and implement a new method to identify seismicity clusters of varying sizes and discriminate them from randomly occurring background seismicity. Our method searches for the closest neighboring earthquakes in space and time and compares the number of neighbors to the background events in larger space/time windows. Applying our method to California's San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ), we find a total of 89 swarm-like groups. These groups range in size from 0.14 to 7.23 km and last from 15 minutes to 22 days. The most striking spatial pattern is the larger fraction of swarms at the northern and southern ends of the SJFZ than its central segment, which may be related to more normal-faulting events at the two ends. In order to explore possible driving mechanisms, we study the spatial migration of events in swarms containing at least 20 events by fitting with both linear and diffusion migration models. Our results suggest that SJFZ swarms are better explained by fluid flow because their estimated linear migration velocities are far smaller than those of typical creep events while large values of best-fitting hydraulic diffusivity are found.

  1. Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Logan, T.; Taylor, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

  2. Crustal velocities near Coalinga, California, modeled from a combined earthquake/explosion refraction profile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Macgregor-Scott, N.; Walter, A.

    1988-01-01

    Crustal velocity structure for the region near Coalinga, California, has been derived from both earthquake and explosion seismic phase data recorded along a NW-SE seismic-refraction profile on the western flank of the Great Valley east of the Diablo Range. Comparison of the two data sets reveals P-wave phases in common which can be correlated with changes in the velocity structure below the earthquake hypocenters. In addition, the earthquake records reveal secondary phases at station ranges of less than 20 km that could be the result of S- to P-wave conversions at velocity interfaces above the earthquake hypocenters. Two-dimensional ray-trace modeling of the P-wave travel times resulted in a P-wave velocity model for the western flank of the Great Valley comprised of: 1) a 7- to 9-km thick section of sedimentary strata with velocities similar to those found elsewhere in the Great Valley (1.6 to 5.2 km s-1); 2) a middle crust extending to about 14 km depth with velocities comparable to those reported for the Franciscan assemblage in the Diablo Range (5.6 to 5.9 km s-1); and 3) a 13- to 14-km thick lower crust with velocities similar to those reported beneath the Diablo Range and the Great Valley (6.5 to 7.30 km s-1). This lower crust may have been derived from subducted oceanic crust that was thickened by accretionary underplating or crustal shortening. -Authors

  3. Rates and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa earthquake, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeLong, Stephen B.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Pickering, Alexandra J; Avdievitch, Nikita N.

    2015-01-01

    The A.D. 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, despite its moderate magnitude, caused significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California (USA). Surface rupture occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following the earthquake indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment of repeat surveys using point cloud–based methods that minimize error imposed by both local survey errors and global navigation satellite system georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of natural and cultural features, we quantify dextral postseismic displacement at several hundred points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total dextral displacement of initially straight cultural features. Total dextral displacement from both coseismic displacement and the first 2.5 d of postseismic displacement ranges from 0.22 to 0.29 m. This range increased to 0.33–0.42 m at 59 d post-earthquake. Furthermore, we estimate up to 0.15 m of vertical deformation during the first 2.5 d post-earthquake, which then increased by ∼0.02 m at 59 d post-earthquake. This vertical deformation is not expressed as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather as a broad up-to-the-west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over several tens of meters, challenging common notions about fault scarp development in strike-slip systems. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of surface deformation and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results indicate the benefits of laser scanner surveys along active faults and demonstrate that fine-scale variability in fault slip has been missed by traditional earthquake response methods.

  4. Preliminary Analysis of Remote Triggered Seismicity in Northern Baja California Generated by the 2011, Tohoku-Oki, Japan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong-Ortega, V.; Castro, R. R.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

    2013-05-01

    We analyze possible variations of seismicity in the northern Baja California due to the passage of seismic waves from the 2011, M9.0, Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. The northwestern area of Baja California is characterized by a mountain range composed of crystalline rocks. These Peninsular Ranges of Baja California exhibits high microseismic activity and moderate size earthquakes. In the eastern region of Baja California shearing between the Pacific and the North American plates takes place and the Imperial and Cerro-Prieto faults generate most of the seismicity. The seismicity in these regions is monitored by the seismic network RESNOM operated by the Centro de Investigacin Cientfica y de Educacin Superior de Ensenada (CICESE). This network consists of 13 three-component seismic stations. We use the seismic catalog of RESNOM to search for changes in local seismic rates occurred after the passing of surface waves generated by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. When we compare one month of seismicity before and after the M9.0 earthquake, the preliminary analysis shows absence of triggered seismicity in the northern Peninsular Ranges and an increase of seismicity south of the Mexicali valley where the Imperial fault jumps southwest and the Cerro Prieto fault continues.

  5. Long-term changes of earthquake inter-event times and low-frequency earthquake recurrence in central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chunquan; Shelly, David R.; Gomberg, Joan; Peng, Zhigang; Johnson, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The temporal evolution of earthquake inter-event time (IET) may provide important clues for the timing of future events and underlying physical mechanisms of earthquake interaction. In this study, we examine ~12 yr of local earthquake and low-frequency earthquake (LFE) activity near Parkfield, CA from catalogs of ~50,000 earthquakes and ~730,000 LFEs. We focus on the long-term evolution of IETs after the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes. The IETs of local earthquakes along and to the southwest of the San Andreas fault show clear decreases of several orders of magnitude after the Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes, followed by recoveries with time scales of ~3 yr and >8 yr, respectively. We also observe decreases in recurrence times in some of LFE families, followed by long-term recoveries with time scales of ~4 months to several years. The long-term recovery of the earthquake IET is a manifestation of the aftershock decay of the Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes, and the different recovery time scales likely reflect the different tectonic loading rates in the two regions. The drop in the recurrence times of LFEs after the Parkfield earthquake is likely caused by static and dynamic stresses induced by the Parkfield earthquake, and the long-term recovery in LFE recurrence time could be due to post-seismic relaxation or gradual recovery of fault zone material properties. The recovery time scales for general earthquake IET and LFE recurrence following the Parkfield earthquake are similar to those estimated for repeating earthquake recurrence identified in previous studies, indicating that they could be controlled by similar mechanisms.

  6. G-larmS: An Infrastructure for Geodetic Earthquake Early Warning, applied to Northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Integrating geodetic data into seismic earthquake early warning (EEW) is critical for accurately resolving magnitude and finite fault dimensions in the very largest earthquakes (M>7). We have developed G-larmS, the Geodetic alarm System, as part of our efforts to incorporate geodetic data into EEW for Northern California. G-larmS is an extensible geodetic EEW infrastructure that analyzes positioning time series from real-time GPS processors, such as TrackRT or RTNET. It is currently running in an operational mode at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) where we use TrackRT to produce high sample rate displacement time series for 62 GPS stations in the greater San Francisco Bay Area with 3-4 second latency. We employ a fully triangulated network scheme, which provides resiliency against an outage or telemetry loss at any individual station, for a total of 165 basestation-rover pairs. G-larmS is tightly integrated into seismic alarm systems (CISN ShakeAlert, ElarmS) as it uses their P-wave detection alarms to trigger its own processing and sends warning messages back to the ShakeAlert decision module. Once triggered, G-larmS estimates the static offset at each station pair and inputs these into an inversion for fault slip, which is updated once per second. The software architecture and clear interface definitions of this Python implementation enable straightforward extensibility and exchange of specific algorithms that operate in the individual modules. For example, multiple modeling instances can be called in parallel, each of which applying a different strategy to infer fault and magnitude information (e.g., pre-defined fault planes, full grid search, least squares inversion, etc.). This design enables, for example, quick tests, expansion and algorithm comparisons. Here, we present the setup and report results of the first months of operation in Northern California. This includes analysis of system latencies, noise, and G-larmS' response to actual events. We also test how differential positions over relatively short baselines (like those produced at the BSL) compare to absolute positions in the case of a very large earthquake. We perform this analysis using data from the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, add randomly selected real-time noise, and invert for slip along the subduction zone interface.

  7. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Zeng, Yuehua; Working Group on CA Earthquake Probabilities

    2013-01-01

    In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

  8. Tests of RTG (Real Time GIPSY) for Earthquake Early Warning and Response Applications in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, N.; Hudnut, K.; Stark, K.; Aspiotes, A.

    2008-12-01

    Recent developments in high-rate real-time GPS technology and processing promise to improve the application of GPS to earthquake early warning and response. Point positioning processing algorithms, which do not require a reference station, are particularly attractive for these applications since any reference station will itself be displaced during a large earthquake. USGS Pasadena is testing one such software package, Real Time GIPSY (RTG), developed and supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). JPL uses RTG for precise real-time satellite orbit and clock determination, formats the results as corrections to the GPS broadcast orbit, and provides a real-time stream over the Internet. In our tests we use a locally- installed copy of RTG to compute real-time positions of GPS stations at a sampling rate of 1 second. In clean sections of the position time series are good, with rms scatter of 2 to 4 cm in the north and east components, and 5 to 10 cm in the vertical. Current work is designed to understand and handle occasional convergence delays and large outliers; many outliers repeat every sidereal day and may be correlated with multipath or with the rising or setting of individual satellites. The test site is in a less-than-ideal setting, and we are experimenting with the software setup and with different sites with fewer sources of multipath and better sky view. USGS Pasadena currently operates about 90 permanent continuously-operating GPS stations, about 20 of which are real-time. With funding from the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project, USGS Pasadena is cooperating with the California Integrated Seismic Network to co-locate approximately eight real-time GPS receivers at new seismic stations along the southern San Andreas fault. The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) is also converting many of its southern California stations to real-time operation. These real-time data and software such as RTG promise to improve USGS Pasasdena's geodetic response to large southern California earthquakes.

  9. Rapid Determination of Event Source Parameters in Southern California for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Kanamori, H.

    2001-12-01

    The rapid increase in the number of seismic stations in earthquake prone regions, combined with the implementation of near real time data transmission technologies, provides the potential for earthquake early warning. In the absence of earthquake prediction methodologies in the foreseeable future, the rapid detection and analysis of a seismic event on its initiation, allowing the issuance of a ground motion warning of the order of seconds, is appealing. We present our efforts to design and implement such a system in southern California. The early warning systems currently operating in Mexico and Taiwan rely on significant distances (> 100 km) between the source and populated regions. In this scenario an early warning system can wait for several stations to detect an event, allowing the application of standard location and magnitude determination algorithms (a process that may take tens of seconds), and still issue a warning tens of seconds in advance of associated ground motion. The close proximity of fault zones to metropolitan areas in southern California precludes such an approach. Instead, we develop a system more similar to the UrEDAS warning system in Japan. The two event parameters needed are location and magnitude. The high density of seismic stations in southern California ( ~25 km spacing in populated areas) allows for an adequate location of events based solely on the first station to detect a P-arrival. The classical use of amplitude to determine magnitude is problematic due to its relatively high sensitivity to epicentral distance close to the source. Instead, we utilize the frequency dependence of the P-arrival to magnitude, which is less sensitive to epicentral distance. With this approach we estimate event magnitude with an accuracy of +/-1 magnitude unit using the P-arrival at one station only. As the P-arrival is recorded at additional stations, we average the magnitude estimates, which reduces the uncertainty. The event location and magnitude may then be used to estimate ground motion throughout the region using attenuation relations. Using the current TriNet infrastructure we expect to be able to reduce data transmission and analysis time sufficiently to be able to give zero to a few seconds warning prior to the onset of peak, damaging ground motion in the epicentral region. The warning time improves for locations further from the epicenter and, as the time-since-event initiation increases, the uncertainty in ground motion predictions decreases and warning messages can be updated.

  10. Robust features of the source process for the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from strong-motion seismograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twardzik, C.; Madariaga, R.; Das, S.; Custdio, S.

    2012-12-01

    We explore a recently developed procedure for kinematic inversion based on an elliptical subfault approximation. In this method, the slip is modelled by a small set of elliptical patches, each ellipse having a Gaussian distribution of slip. We invert near-field strong ground motion for the 2004 September 28 Mw 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. The data set consists of 10 digital three-component 18-s long displacement seismograms. The best model gives a moment of 1.21 1018 N m, with slip on two distinct ellipses, one with a high-slip amplitude of 0.91 m located 20 km northwest of the hypocentre. The average rupture speed of the rupture process is 2.7 km s-1. We find no slip in the top 5 km. At this depth, a lineation of small aftershocks marks the transition from creeping above to locked below, in the interseismic period. The high-slip patch coincides spatially with the hypocentre of the 1966 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. The larger earthquakes prior to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the aftershocks of the 2004 earthquake (Mw > 3) also lie around this high-slip patch, where our model images a sharp slip gradient. This observation suggests the presence of a permanent asperity that breaks during large earthquakes, and has important implications for the slip deficit observed on the Parkfield segment, which is necessary for reliable seismic hazard assessment.

  11. A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jibson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  12. Westward-derived conglomerates in Moenkopi formation of Southeastern California, and their probable tectonic significance

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, J.D.; Burchfiel, B.C.; Royden, L.H.

    1983-02-01

    The upper part of the Moenkopi Formation in the Northern Clark Mountains, Southeastern California, contains conglomerate beds whose clasts comprise igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks. Metamorphic clasts include foliated granite, meta-arkose, and quarzite, probably derived from older Precambrian basement and younger Precambrian clastic rocks. Volcanic clasts are altered plagioclase-bearing rocks, and sedimentary clasts were derived from Paleozoic miogeoclinal rocks. Paleocurrent data indicate that the clasts had a source to the southwest. An age of late Early or early Middle Triassic has been tentatively assigned to these conglomerates. These conglomerates indicate that Late Permian to Early Triassic deformational events in this part of the orogen affected rocks much farther east than has been previously recognized.

  13. Data Sets and Data Services at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) houses a unique and comprehensive data archive and provides real-time services for a variety of seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern and central California. We have over 80 terabytes of continuous and event-based time series data from broadband, short-period, strong motion, and strain sensors as well as continuous and campaign GPS data at both standard and high sample rates in both raw and RINEX format. The Northen California Seismic System (NCSS), operated by UC Berkeley and USGS Menlo Park, has recorded over 890,000 events from 1984 to the present, and the NCEDC provides catalog, parametric information, moment tensors and first motion mechanisms, and time series data for these events. We also host and provide event catalogs, parametric information, and event waveforms for DOE enhanced geothermal system monitoring in northern California and Nevada. The NCEDC provides a variety of ways for users to access these data. The most recent development are web services, which provide interactive, command-line, or program-based workflow access to data. Web services use well-established server and client protocols and RESTful software architecture that allow users to easily submit queries and receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC supports all FDSN-defined web services as well as a number of IRIS-defined and NCEDC-defined services. We also continue to support older email-based and browser-based access to data. NCEDC data and web services can be found at http://www.ncedc.org and http://service.ncedc.org.

  14. Probable Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Its Predictors in Disaster-Bereaved Survivors: A Longitudinal Study After the Sichuan Earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiuying; Cao, Xiaoyi; Wang, Heng; Chen, Qian; Liu, Maoqiong; Yamamoto, Aiko

    2016-04-01

    This study examined the trajectory of probable PTSD prevalence and severity, and analyzed the predictors for PTSD severity in bereaved survivors at 6months and 18months after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. This was a longitudinal study with 226 bereaved survivors sampled at 6months and 18months post-earthquake. The instrument used in the study was the revised version of the Impact of Event Scale. The results showed that the prevalence of probable PTSD in bereaved survivors decreased significantly from 38.9% at 6months to 16.8% at 18months post-earthquake. Loss of a child, being directly exposed to the death of family members and property loss during the earthquake, and mental health services utilization after the earthquake were significant predictors for PTSD severity at both assessments. These findings can contribute to post-disaster psychological rescue work. The bereaved survivors at high risk for more severe PTSD should be particularly targeted. PMID:26992870

  15. Frequency-magnitude statistics and spatial correlation dimensions of earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, D. J.; Foulger, G. R.; Henderson, J. R.; Julian, B. R.

    1999-08-01

    Intense earthquake swarms at Long Valley caldera in late 1997 and early 1998 occurred on two contrasting structures. The first is defined by the intersection of a north-northwesterly array of faults with the southern margin of the resurgent dome, and is a zone of hydrothermal upwelling. Seismic activity there was characterized by high b-values and relatively low values of D, the spatial fractal dimension of hypocentres. The second structure is the pre-existing South Moat fault, which has generated large-magnitude seismic activity in the past. Seismicity on this structure was characterized by low b-values and relatively high D. These observations are consistent with low-magnitude, clustered earthquakes on the first structure, and higher-magnitude, diffuse earthquakes on the second structure. The first structure is probably an immature fault zone, fractured on a small scale and lacking a well-developed fault plane. The second zone represents a mature fault with an extensive, coherent fault plane.

  16. Frequency-magnitude statistics and spatial correlation dimensions of earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barton, D.J.; Foulger, G.R.; Henderson, J.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1999-01-01

    Intense earthquake swarms at Long Valley caldera in late 1997 and early 1998 occurred on two contrasting structures. The first is defined by the intersection of a north-northwesterly array of faults with the southern margin of the resurgent dome, and is a zone of hydrothermal upwelling. Seismic activity there was characterized by high b-values and relatively low values of D, the spatial fractal dimension of hypocentres. The second structure is the pre-existing South Moat fault, which has generated large-magnitude seismic activity in the past. Seismicity on this structure was characterized by low b-values and relatively high D. These observations are consistent with low-magnitude, clustered earthquakes on the first structure, and higher-magnitude, diffuse earthquakes on the second structure. The first structure is probably an immature fault zone, fractured on a small scale and lacking a well-developed fault plane. The second zone represents a mature fault with an extensive, coherent fault plane.

  17. Earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Briggs, Susan M

    2006-06-01

    Major earthquakes have the potential to be one of the most catastrophic natural disasters affecting mankind. Earthquakes of significant size threaten lives and damage property by setting off a chain of events that disrupts all aspects of the environment and significantly impacts the public health and medical infrastructures of the affected region. This article provides an overview of basic earthquake facts and relief protocol for medical personnel. PMID:16781268

  18. Slow rupture in Andaman during 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake: a probable consequence of subduction of 90E ridge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gahalaut, V. K.; Subrahmanyam, C.; Kundu, B.; Catherine, J. K.; Ambikapathy, A.

    2010-03-01

    One of the most enigmatic features of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was the slow rupture speed and low slip on the northern part of the rupture under the Andaman region. We propose that the aseismic 90E Ridge (NER) on the Indian Plate obliquely subducts under the Andaman frontal arc region. Though other possibilities also exist, we hypothesized that this ridge probably acted as a structural barrier influencing rupture characteristics of the earthquake. Here we present several features of the Andaman region that favour NER subduction under the region, which include (i) comparatively shallow bathymetry and trench depth, (ii) low seismicity, (iii) significant variation in the azimuths of coseismic horizontal offsets due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, (iv) lack of post-seismic afterslip on the coseismic rupture in the Andaman frontal arc region, (v) low P wave with only small decrease in S wave speed from tomographic studies, (vi) gravity anomalies on the Indian Plate indicating continuation of the ridge under the Andaman frontal arc and (vii) lack of back arc volcanoes in the Andaman region.

  19. A Double-difference Earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2000-01-01

    We have developed an efficient method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations over large distances. The location method incorporates ordinary absolute travel-time measurements and/or cross-correlation P-and S-wave differential travel-time measurements. Residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences (or double-differences) are minimized for pairs of earthquakes at each station while linking together all observed event-station pairs. A least-squares solution is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs. The double-difference algorithm minimizes errors due to unmodeled velocity structure without the use of station corrections. Because catalog and cross-correlation data are combined into one system of equations, interevent distances within multiplets are determined to the accuracy of the cross-correlation data, while the relative locations between multiplets and uncorrelated events are simultaneously determined to the accuracy of the absolute travel-time data. Statistical resampling methods are used to estimate data accuracy and location errors. Uncertainties in double-difference locations are improved by more than an order of magnitude compared to catalog locations. The algorithm is tested, and its performance is demonstrated on two clusters of earthquakes located on the northern Hayward fault, California. There it colapses the diffuse catalog locations into sharp images of seismicity and reveals horizontal lineations of hypocenter that define the narrow regions on the fault where stress is released by brittle failure.

  20. Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Xu, Fei; Burdette, T.

    1998-01-01

    Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996.

  1. Comparison of four moderate-size earthquakes in southern California using seismology and InSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mellors, R.J.; Magistrale, H.; Earle, P.; Cogbill, A.H.

    2004-01-01

    Source parameters determined from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and from seismic data are compared from four moderate-size (less than M 6) earthquakes in southern California. The goal is to verify approximate detection capabilities of InSAR, assess differences in the results, and test how the two results can be reconciled. First, we calculated the expected surface deformation from all earthquakes greater than magnitude 4 in areas with available InSAR data (347 events). A search for deformation from the events in the interferograms yielded four possible events with magnitudes less than 6. The search for deformation was based on a visual inspection as well as cross-correlation in two dimensions between the measured signal and the expected signal. A grid-search algorithm was then used to estimate focal mechanism and depth from the InSAR data. The results were compared with locations and focal mechanisms from published catalogs. An independent relocation using seismic data was also performed. The seismic locations fell within the area of the expected rupture zone for the three events that show clear surface deformation. Therefore, the technique shows the capability to resolve locations with high accuracy and is applicable worldwide. The depths determined by InSAR agree with well-constrained seismic locations determined in a 3D velocity model. Depth control for well-imaged shallow events using InSAR data is good, and better than the seismic constraints in some cases. A major difficulty for InSAR analysis is the poor temporal coverage of InSAR data, which may make it impossible to distinguish deformation due to different earthquakes at the same location.

  2. Overview of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) Time-Independent Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, E. H.; Arrowsmith, R.; Biasi, G. P.; Bird, P.; Dawson, T. E.; Felzer, K. R.; Jackson, D. D.; Johnson, K. M.; Jordan, T. H.; Madugo, C. M.; Michael, A. J.; Milner, K. R.; Page, M. T.; Parsons, T.; Powers, P.; Shaw, B. E.; Thatcher, W. R.; Weldon, R. J.; Zeng, Y.

    2013-12-01

    We present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), where the primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and include multi-fault ruptures, both limitations of UCERF2. The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level 'grand inversion' that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (e.g., magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded due to lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (e.g., constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 over-prediction of M6.5-7 earthquake rates, and also includes types of multi-fault ruptures seen in nature. While UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

  3. Surface faulting near Livermore, California, associated with the January 1980 earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonilla, Manuel G.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Tinsley, John C., III

    1980-01-01

    The earthquakes of 24 January (Ms 5.8) 1980 north of Livermore, California, and 26 January (Ms 5.2), were accompanied by surface faulting in the Greenville fault zone and apparently in the Las Positas fault zone also. The surface faulting was discontinuous and of small displacement. The main rupture within the Greenville fault zone trended about N.38W. It was at least 4.2 km long and may have extended southward to Interstate Highway 580, giving a possible length of 6.2 km; both of these lengths included more gaps than observed surface rupture. Maximum displacements measured by us were about 25 mm of right slip (including afterslip through 28 January); vertical components of as much as 50 mm were seen locally, but these included gravity effects of unknown amount. The main break within the Greenville fault zones is very close to a fault strand mapped by Herd (1977, and unpublished data). A subsidiary break within the Greenville fault zone was about 0.5 km. long, had a general trend of N.46W., and lay 0.12 to 0.25 km east of the main break. It was characterized by extension of as much as 40 mm and right slip of as much as 20 mm. This break was no more than 25 m from a fault mapped by Herd (unpublished data). Another break within the Greenville fault zone lay about 0.3 km southwest of the projection of the main break and trended about N33W. It was at least 0.3 km long and showed mostly extension, but at several places a right-lateral component (up to 5 mm) was seen. This break was 80 to 100 m from a strand of the Greenville fault mapped by Herd (1977). Extensional fractures within the Greenville fault zone on the frontage roads north and south of Interstate Highway 580 may be related to regional extension or other processes, but do not seem to have resulted from faulting of the usual kind. One exception in this group is a fracture at the east side of Livermore valley which showed progressive increase in right-lateral displacement in February and March, 1980, and is directly on the projection of a fault in the Greenville fault zone mapped by Herd (1977). A group of more than 20 extensional fractures in Laughlin Road 1 km north of Interstate 580 probably are related to small tectonic displacements on faults in the Greenville fault zone. They are adjacent and parallel to two faults mapped by Herd (1977), are diagonal to the road, and most of them developed between 25 and 29 January, a period that included the Ms 5.2 shock of 26 January. Observations at two locations indicate tectonic displacement on the Las Positas fault zone as mapped by Herd (1977). At Vasco Road a prominent break on a strand of the fault showed about 0.5 mm of left-lateral strike slip on 7 February. An alinement array across this and other fractures at the locality indicates about 6 mm of left-lateral displacement occurred between 21 February and 26 March. On Tesla Road several right-stepping fractures, one of which showed 1.5 mm of left-lateral strike slip, lie on or close tp previously mapped strands of the Las Positas fault zone. The evidence at these two localities indicates that tectonic surface displacement occurred along at least 1.1 km of the Las Positas fault zone.

  4. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with ?~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with ? ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with ?=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines show the major faults. In the table the values are sampled by 2 weeks, "-" indicates time before the event, "+" indicates time after the event.

  5. Trees and herbs killed by an earthquake 300 yr ago at Humboldt Bay, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacoby, Gordon; Carver, Gary; Wagner, Wendy

    1995-01-01

    Evidence of rapid seismic-induced subsidence at Humboldt Bay, California, is produced by analyses of annual growth rings of relict Sitka spruce [Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.] roots and entombed herbaceous plants. These results add to previously reported evidence that an earthquake caused subsidence 300 yr ago at Mad River slough, California. Both types of remains are rooted in buried soils that stood at or above the high-tide level until the area subsided at least 0.5 m into the intertidal zone. Burial by intertidal muds took place quickly enough to preserve the herbs in the growth position. Analysis of the annual growth rings of the tree roots shows that all died within four growing seasons, but the time of root death varies even among roots of the same tree. With no central nervous system, tree cells do not die simultaneously throughout the organism. The 0.5 to 1.5 m of subsidence, as evidenced by stratigraphy and sedimentology, was not enough to kill all the trees even in one season. Although such gradual death could be due to rapid aseismic subsidence, the tree deaths and preserved herbs are much better explained by sudden coseismic subsidence.

  6. Earthquake cycle on the Ballenas Fault, Central Gulf of California, MX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malservisi, R.; Plattner, C.; Hackl, M.; Gonzalez-Garcia, J. J.; Suarez Vidal, F.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    South of the San Andreas Fault system, ~90% of the North America/Pacific plate motion is accommodate along the Gulf of California. Here the plate boundary deformation is partitioned in deep basins, often resulting in formation of new oceanic crust, connected by long transform faults. In the central part of the Gulf, one of these transform fault, the Ballenas fault, is localized in the Canales de Ballenas, a ~30 km wide channel between Isla Angel de la Garda and mainland Baja California. The presence of land on both the sides of this marine transform fault give the unique opportunity to perform geodetic study across its trace. On August 3rd 2009, a series of seismic strike slip events (including a M6.9) happened along this segment of plate boundary allowing a combined study of co- and inter- seismic deformation. Here we present the results from 5 years of EGPS along two transects perpendicular to the plate motion direction at 29 and 28 degrees North. These surveys include at least 3 occupations before the seismic event and at least 1 occupation after the earthquake. The analysis of the inter-seismic data shows that ~46 mm/yr is accommodated within the Canales de Ballenas. Co-seismic data are being collected at the time of the deadline for this abstract and will be presented at the meeting in combination with InSar signal.

  7. Artefacts of earthquake location errors and short-term incompleteness on seismicity clusters in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaliapin, Ilya; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

    2015-09-01

    We document and quantify effects of two types of catalogue uncertainties-earthquake location errors and short-term incompleteness-on results of statistical cluster analyses of seismicity in southern California. In the main part of the study we analyse 117 076 events with m ? 2 in southern California during 1981-2013 from the waveform-relocated catalogue of Hauksson et al. We present statistical evidence for three artefacts caused by the absolute and relative location errors: (1) Increased distance between offspring and parents. (2) Underestimated clustering, quantified by the number of offspring per event, the total number of clustered events, and some other statistics. (3) Overestimated background rates. We also find that short-term incompleteness leads to (4) Apparent magnitude dependence and temporal fluctuations of b-values. The reported artefacts are robustly observed in three additional catalogues of southern California: the relocated catalogue of Richards-Dinger & Shearer during 1975-1998, and the two subcatalogues-1961-1981 and 1981-2013-of the Advances National Seismic System catalogue. This implies that the reported artefacts are not specific to a particular (re)location method. The comparative quality of the four examined catalogues is reflected in the magnitude of the artefacts. The location errors in the examined catalogues mostly affect events with m < 3.5, while for larger magnitudes the location error effects are negligible. This is explained by comparing the location error and rupture lengths of events and their parents. Finally, our analysis suggests that selected aggregated cluster statistics (e.g. proportion of singles) are less prone to location artefacts than individual statistics (e.g. the distance to parent or parent-offspring assignment). The results can inform a range of studies focused on small-magnitude seismicity patterns in the presence of catalogue uncertainties.

  8. CRUSTAL REFRACTION PROFILE OF THE LONG VALLEY CALDERA, CALIFORNIA, FROM THE JANUARY 1983 MAMMOTH LAKES EARTHQUAKE SWARM.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luetgert, James H.; Mooney, Walter D.

    1985-01-01

    Seismic-refraction profiles recorded north of Mammoth Lakes, California, using earthquake sources from the January 1983 swarm complement earlier explosion refraction profiles and provide velocity information from deeper in the crust in the area of the Long Valley caldera. Eight earthquakes from a depth range of 4. 9 to 8. 0 km confirm the observation of basement rocks with seismic velocities ranging from 5. 8 to 6. 4 km/sec extending at least to depths of 20 km. The data provide further evidence for the existence of a partial melt zone beneath Long Valley caldera and constrain its geometry. Refs.

  9. Survey of strong motion earthquake effects on thermal power plants in California with emphasis on piping systems. Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-11-01

    Volume 2 of the ``Survey of Strong Motion Earthquake Effects on Thermal Power Plants in California with Emphasis on Piping Systems`` contains Appendices which detail the detail design and seismic response of several power plants subjected to strong motion earthquakes. The particular plants considered include the Ormond Beach, Long Beach and Seal Beach, Burbank, El Centro, Glendale, Humboldt Bay, Kem Valley, Pasadena and Valley power plants. Included is a typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical piping and support installations for the plants surveyed. Detailed piping support spacing data are also included.

  10. Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California, from double-difference earthquake locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldhauser, Felix; Ellsworth, William L.

    2002-03-01

    The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggests that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2-3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ~5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

  11. Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2002-01-01

    The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggest that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2-3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ???5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

  12. Probability of introduction of exotic strains of bluetongue virus into the US and into California through importation of infected cattle.

    PubMed

    Hoar, Bruce R; Carpenter, Tim E; Singer, Randall S; Gardner, Ian A

    2004-12-15

    Strategies designed to minimize the probability of bluetongue virus (BTV) introduction to new areas should be based on a quantitative assessment of the probability of actually establishing the virus once it is introduced. The risk of introducing a new strain of bluetongue virus into a region depends on the number of viremic animals that enter and the competency of local vectors to transmit the virus. We used Monte Carlo simulation to model the probability of introducing BTV into California, USA, and the US through importation of cattle. Records of cattle and calf imports into California and the US were obtained, as was seroprevalence information from the exporting countries. A simulation model was constructed to evaluate the probability of importing either a viremic PCR-negative animal after 14-day quarantine, a c-ELISA BTV-antibody-negative animal after 28-day quarantine, or an untested viremic animal after 100-day quarantine into California and into the US. We found that for animals imported to the US, the simulated (best to worst scenarios) median percentage that tested positive for BTV-antibody ranged from 5.4 to 7.2%, while for the subset imported to California, the simulated median percentage that tested positive for BTV-antibody ranged from 20.9 to 78.9%. Using PCR, for animals imported to the US these values were 71.8-85.3%, and for those imported to California, the simulated median that test positive ranged from 74.3 to 92.4%. The probability that an imported animal was BTV-viremic is very low regardless of the scenario selected (median probability=0.0%). The probability of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into California or the US by importing infected cattle was remote, and the current Office International des Epizooties (OIE) recommendation of either a final PCR test performed 14 days after entry into quarantine, a c-ELISA performed 28 days after entry into quarantine or a 100-day quarantine with no testing requirement was adequate to protect cattle in the US and California from an exotic strain of BTV. PMID:15579336

  13. Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fumal, T.E.; Rymer, M.J.; Seitz, G.G.

    2002-01-01

    Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radio-carbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770-890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840-1150), A.D. 1231 (1170-1290), A.D. 1502 (1450-1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520-1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ?? 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams (1990). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ?? 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ?? 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ?? 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ?? 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ?? 2 mm/yr and about 23-35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

  14. Stress field associated with the rupture of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake and its implications concerning the fault strength at the onset of the earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchon, Michel; Campillo, Michel; Cotton, Fabrice

    1998-09-01

    We investigate the space and time history of the shear stress produced on the fault during the 1992 Landers earthquake. The stress is directly calculated from the tomographic image of slip on the fault derived from near-source strong motion data. The results obtained shed some light on why the earthquake rupture cascaded along a series of previously distinct fault segments to produce the largest earthquake in California in over 40 years. Rupture on the 30 km long northernmost segment of the fault was triggered by a large dynamic increase of the stress field, of the order of 20 to 30 MPa, produced by the rupturing of the adjacent fault segments. Such a large increase was necessary to overcome the static friction on this strand of the fault, unfavorably oriented in today's tectonic stress field. This misorientation eventually led to the arrest of rupture. The same mechanism explains why rupture broke only a small portion of the Johnson Valley fault on which the earthquake originally started, before jumping to an adjacent fault more favorably oriented. We conclude from these results that the dynamic stress field could not sustain and drive the rupture along the strongly misoriented NW-SE strands of the preexisting fault system. Instead, the dynamic stress field produced new fractures favorably oriented in a N-S direction and connecting parts of the old fault system.

  15. Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  16. Dynamic deformations and the M6.7, Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.

    1997-01-01

    A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding ???100 ??strain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains, ???35 ??strain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal ???139 and ???229 ??strain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikes consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Limited.

  17. Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences: Implications for the earthquake initiation process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dodge, Douglas A.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Ellsworth, W. L.

    1996-10-01

    We find that foreshocks provide clear evidence for an extended nucleation process before some earthquakes. In this study, we examine in detail the evolution of six California foreshock sequences, the 1986 Mount Lewis (ML = 5.5), the 1986 Chalfant (ML = 6.4), the 1986 Stone Canyon (ML = 4.7), the 1990 Upland (ML = 5.2), the 1992 Joshua Tree (MW = 6.1), and the 1992 Landers (MW = 7.3) sequence. Typically, uncertainties in hypocentral parameters are too large to establish the geometry of foreshock sequences and hence to understand their evolution. However, the similarity of location and focal mechanisms for the events in these sequences leads to similar foreshock waveforms that we cross correlate to obtain extremely accurate relative locations. We use these results to identify small-scale fault zone structures that could influence nucleation and to determine the stress evolution leading up to the mainshock. In general, these foreshock sequences are not compatible with a cascading failure nucleation model in which the foreshocks all occur on a single fault plane and trigger the mainshock by static stress transfer. Instead, the foreshocks seem to concentrate near structural discontinuities in the fault and may themselves be a product of an aseismic nucleation process. Fault zone heterogeneity may also be important in controlling the number of foreshocks, i.e., the stronger the heterogeneity, the greater the number of foreshocks. The size of the nucleation region, as measured by the extent of the foreshock sequence, appears to scale with mainshock moment in the same manner as determined independently by measurements of the seismic nucleation phase. We also find evidence for slip localization as predicted by some models of earthquake nucleation.

  18. Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences: Implications for the earthquake initiation process

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodge, D.A.; Beroza, G.C.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    1996-01-01

    We find that foreshocks provide clear evidence for an extended nucleation process before some earthquakes. In this study, we examine in detail the evolution of six California foreshock sequences, the 1986 Mount Lewis (ML, = 5.5), the 1986 Chalfant (ML = 6.4), the. 1986 Stone Canyon (ML = 4.7), the 1990 Upland (ML = 5.2), the 1992 Joshua Tree (MW= 6.1), and the 1992 Landers (MW = 7.3) sequence. Typically, uncertainties in hypocentral parameters are too large to establish the geometry of foreshock sequences and hence to understand their evolution. However, the similarity of location and focal mechanisms for the events in these sequences leads to similar foreshock waveforms that we cross correlate to obtain extremely accurate relative locations. We use these results to identify small-scale fault zone structures that could influence nucleation and to determine the stress evolution leading up to the mainshock. In general, these foreshock sequences are not compatible with a cascading failure nucleation model in which the foreshocks all occur on a single fault plane and trigger the mainshock by static stress transfer. Instead, the foreshocks seem to concentrate near structural discontinuities in the fault and may themselves be a product of an aseismic nucleation process. Fault zone heterogeneity may also be important in controlling the number of foreshocks, i.e., the stronger the heterogeneity, the greater the number of foreshocks. The size of the nucleation region, as measured by the extent of the foreshock sequence, appears to scale with mainshock moment in the same manner as determined independently by measurements of the seismic nucleation phase. We also find evidence for slip localization as predicted by some models of earthquake nucleation. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

  20. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business establishment size.

  1. Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the southwestern United States.

    PubMed

    Fram, Miranda S; Belitz, Kenneth

    2011-02-15

    We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 ?g/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 ?g/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 ?g/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%). PMID:21247209

  2. Rupture Pomess of Four Medium Size Earthquakes That Occurred in the Gulf of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Lozoya, H. E.; Rebollar, C. J.; Quintanar, L.

    2005-12-01

    Four earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.3, 5.6, 6.1 and 6.2 located in the Gulf of California Extensional Province were studied to obtain their rupture process. A network of broadband seismic stations located around the Gulf of California recorded the events (NARS-Baja and RESBAN). Body waveform modeling and the inversion of the seismic moment tensor were used to obtain the fault geometry. From forward body waveform modeling and from the time-domain moment tensor inversion we obtained source depths in the range from 4 to 6 km. We used Yagi et al. (1999) inversion code to invert near-source broadband and strong-ground-motion waveforms to get the spatial slip distribution over the fault. We found that the source rupture process of the magnitude 5.3 and 5,6 have simple moment-rate functions and source time duration of 10 and 17 seconds respectively. Magnitude 5.3 event was a normal event and magnitude 5.6 was a right lateral strike-slip event. Magnitude 6.1 and 6.3 were right lateral strike-slip events with a complex rupture process with three sources of seismic moment release. Time duration of these events were 30 and 35 seconds respectively. Time duration of the moment-rate functions are large compared with similar magnitude events calculated elsewhere, we think that this is because we are inverting a large window of the seismogram that contain energy that it is not seen at regional distances or teleseismic distances.

  3. Metastatic carcinoma of probable transitional cell origin in 66 free-living California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), 1979 to 1994.

    PubMed

    Gulland, F M; Trupkiewicz, J G; Spraker, T R; Lowenstine, L J

    1996-04-01

    Sixty-six (18%) cases of widely metastatic carcinoma of probable transitional cell origin were identified in 370 California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) stranded alive along the central California (USA) coast, between January 1979 and December 1994. Live animals were usually emaciated and anorectic, with perineal edema and occasionally hind-flipper paralysis or paresis. Large yellow caseous masses were observed in the sub-lumbar lymph nodes, often extending around the ureters resulting in hydroureter. Histologically, metastases were usually widespread, and the primary neoplastic focus undetectable. This is the highest reported prevalence among necropsied animals of neoplasia in a pinniped population to date. PMID:8722262

  4. Cruise report for A1-02-SC southern California CABRILLO project, Earthquake Hazards Task

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Fisher, Michael A.; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Sliter, Ray; Hibbeler, Lori; Feingold, Beth; Reid, Jane A.

    2003-01-01

    A two-week marine geophysical survey obtained sidescan-sonar images and multiple sets of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles in the southern California offshore area between Point Arguello and Point Dume. The data were obtained to support two project activities of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) the evaluation of the geologic hazards posed by earthquake faults and landslides in the offshore areas of Santa Barbara Channel and western Santa Monica Basin and (2) determine the location of active hydrocarbon seeps in the vicinity of Point Conception as part of a collaborative study with the Minerals Management Service (MMS). The 2002 cruise, A1-02- SC, is the fourth major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b; Gutmacher et al., 2000). A cruise to obtain sediment cores to constrain the timing of deformation interpreted from the geophysical records is planned for the summer of 2003.

  5. Disaster Response and Decision Support in Partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Rosinski, A.; Vaughan, D.; Morentz, J.

    2014-12-01

    Getting the right information to the right people at the right time is critical during a natural disaster. E-DECIDER (Emergency Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response) is a NASA decision support system designed to produce remote sensing and geophysical modeling data products that are relevant to the emergency preparedness and response communities and serve as a gateway to enable the delivery of NASA decision support products to these communities. The E-DECIDER decision support system has several tools, services, and products that have been used to support end-user exercises in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse since 2012, including near real-time deformation modeling results and on-demand maps of critical infrastructure that may have been potentially exposed to damage by a disaster. E-DECIDER's underlying service architecture allows the system to facilitate delivery of NASA decision support products to the Clearinghouse through XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration that allows trusted information exchange among partner agencies. This in turn allows Clearinghouse partners to visualize data products produced by E-DECIDER and other NASA projects through incident command software such as SpotOnResponse or ArcGIS Online.

  6. Low Velocity Zones along the San Jacinto Fault, Southern California, inferred from Local Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z.; Yang, H.; Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Vernon, F.

    2013-12-01

    Natural fault zones have regions of brittle damage leading to a low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the immediate vicinity of the main fault interface. The LVZ may amplify ground motion, modify rupture propagation, and impact derivation of earthquke properties. Here we image low-velocity fault zone structures along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF), southern California, using waveforms of local earthquakes that are recorded at several dense arrays across the SJFZ. We use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic travel times to track the direct and FZ-reflected waves bouncing from the FZ boundaries. This method can effectively reduce the trade-off between FZ width and velocity reduction relative to the host rock. Our preliminary results from travel time modeling show the clear signature of LVZs along the SJF, including the segment of the Anza seismic gap. At the southern part near the trifrication area, the LVZ of the Clark Valley branch (array JF) has a width of ~200 m with ~55% reduction in Vp and Vs. This is consistent with what have been suggested from previous studies. In comparison, we find that the velocity reduction relative to the host rock across the Anza seismic gap (array RA) is ~50% for both Vp and Vs, nearly as prominent as that on the southern branches. The width of the LVZ is ~230 m. In addition, the LVZ across the Anza gap appears to locate in the northeast side of the RA array, implying potential preferred propagation direction of past ruptures.

  7. Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merifield, P. M.; Lamar, D. L. (principal investigators)

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS and Skylab images reveal a number of prominent lineaments in the basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major, well-known, active, northwest trending, right-slip faults are well displayed, but northeast and west to west-northwest trending lineaments are also present. Study of large-scale airphotos followed by field investigations have shown that several of these lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Pitches of striations on shear surfaces of the northeast and west trending faults indicate oblique-slip movement; data are insufficient to determine the net-slip. These faults are restricted to the pre-Tertiary basement terrane and are truncated by the major northwest trending faults; therefore, they may have formed in response to an earlier stress system. Future work should be directed toward determining whether the northeast and west trending faults are related to the presently active stress system or to an older inactive system, because this question relates to the earthquake risk in the vicinity of these faults.

  8. Remotely triggered microearthquakes and tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity

    2010-01-01

    We examine remotely triggered microearthquakes and tectonic tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake. Several microearthquakes near the Coso Geothermal Field were apparently triggered, with the largest earthquake (Ml 3.5) occurring during the large-amplitude Love surface waves. The Chile mainshock also triggered numerous tremor bursts near the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF). The locally triggered tremor bursts are partially masked at lower frequencies by the regionally triggered earthquake signals from Coso, but can be identified by applying high-pass or matched filters. Both triggered tremor along the SAF and the Ml 3.5 earthquake in Coso are consistent with frictional failure at different depths on critically-stressed faults under the Coulomb failure criteria. The triggered tremor, however, appears to be more phase-correlated with the surface waves than the triggered earthquakes, likely reflecting differences in constitutive properties between the brittle, seismogenic crust and the underlying lower crust.

  9. Geophysical setting of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville, California, earthquake: Implications for seismic Hazard in Napa Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langenheim, V.E.; Graymer, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.

    2006-01-01

    The epicenter of the 2000 ML 5.2 Yountville earthquake was located 5 km west of the surface trace of the West Napa fault, as defined by Helley and Herd (1977). On the basis of the re-examination of geologic data and the analysis of potential field data, the earthquake occurred on a strand of the West Napa fault, the main basin-bounding fault along the west side of Napa Valley. Linear aeromagnetic anomalies and a prominent gravity gradient extend the length of the fault to the latitude of Calistoga, suggesting that this fault may be capable of larger-magnitude earthquakes. Gravity data indicate an ???2-km-deep basin centered on the town of Napa, where damage was concentrated during the Yountville earthquake. It most likely played a minor role in enhancing shaking during this event but may lead to enhanced shaking caused by wave trapping during a larger-magnitude earthquake.

  10. Changes in the discharge characteristics of thermal springs and fumaroles in the Long Valley Caldera, California, resulting from earthquakes on May 25-27, 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorey, M.L.; Clark, Mark D.

    1981-01-01

    Changes in flow rate and turbidity have been observed and measured in hot springs in the Long Valley caldera, California, following earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.3 in May 1980. Increases in flow rate of some hot springs occurred within minutes of the earthquakes, followed by more gradual decreases in flow rate to pre-earthquake levels. Spring temperatures and chemistries also show no long-term variations following earthquakes. Transient changes in discharge characteristics of the hot springs appear to result from increases in the permeability of fault conduits transmitting the hot water to the surface. (USGS)

  11. Multifrequential periodogram analysis of earthquake occurrence: An alternative approach to the Schuster spectrum, with two examples in central California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutilleul, Pierre; Johnson, Christopher W.; Bürgmann, Roland; Wan, Yongge; Shen, Zheng-Kang

    2015-12-01

    Periodic earthquake occurrences may reflect links with semidiurnal to multiyear tides, seasonal hydrological loads, and ~14 month pole tide forcing. The Schuster spectrum is a recent extension of Schuster's traditional test for periodicity analysis in seismology. We present an alternative approach: the multifrequential periodogram analysis (MFPA), performed on time series of monthly earthquake numbers. We explore if seismicity in two central California regions, the Central San Andreas Fault near Parkfield (CSAF-PKD) and the Sierra Nevada-Eastern California Shear Zone (SN-ECSZ), exhibits periodic behavior at periods of 2 months to several years. Original and declustered catalogs spanning up to 26 years were analyzed with both methods. For CSAF-PKD, the MFPA resolves ~1 year periodicities, with additional statistically significant periods of ~6 and ~4 months; for SN-ECSZ, it finds a strong ~14 month periodic component. Unlike the Schuster spectrum, the MFPA has an exact modified statistic at non-Fourier frequencies. Informed by the MFPA period estimates, trigonometric models with periods of 12, 6, and 4 months (Model 1) and 14.24 and 12 months (Model 2) were fitted to time series of earthquake numbers. For CSAF-PKD, Model 1 shows a peak annual earthquake occurrence during August-November and a secondary peak in April. Similar peaks, or troughs, are found in annual and semiannual components of pole tide and tide-induced stress model time series and fault normal-stress reduction from seasonal hydrological unloading. For SN-ECSZ, the dominant ~14 month periodicity prevents regular annual peaking, and Model 2 provides a better fit (ΔR>¯adjusted2: 2.4%). This new MFPA application resolves several periodicities in earthquake catalogs that reveal external periodic forcing.

  12. Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Bozkurt, S.B.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

  13. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of the method in earthquake studies and a number of advantages of it over other methods. The details will be reported on the meeting.

  14. Micro-earthquake Analysis for Reservoir Properties at the Prati-32 Injection Test, The Geysers, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchings, L. J.; Singh, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    The Prati-32 injection test offers a particular opportunity to test rock physics theories and tomography results as it occurred in a previously undisturbed portion of The Geysers, California. Within the northwest Geysers, there is a high temperature zone (HTZ) directly below the normal temperature reservoir (NTR) at ˜2.6 km below ground surface. We demonstrate an analysis of micro-earthquake data with rock physics theory to identify fractures, state of fluids, and permeable zones. We obtain earthquake source properties (hypocenters, magnitudes, stress drops, and moment tensors), 3D isotropic velocity (Vp and Vs) and attenuation (Qp and Qs seismic quality factors), derived elastic moduli (Lambda, Bulk and Young's moduli), and Poisson's ratio. After one month of injection changes in these parameters occur right at the point where injection occured, which confirms the accuracy of the tomography. Bulk modulus, Poisson's ratio, and Lambda increased. Vs decreased. Qp and Vp increased slightly and Qs did not change. We interpret this observation to indicate that there is fluid saturation along with fracturing around the well bottom. Fracturing would decrease Vs, while saturation would not affect Vs. Whereas, saturation would increase Vp, even with fracturing. Saturation and fracturing should have competing effect of intrinsic and extrinsic Q. Saturation should increase intrinsic Qp, but not affect extrinsic Qp. We can't explain the unchanged Qs, unless the effect of increasing intrinsic Qs is offset by a decrease in extrinsic Qs. Poisson's ratio, and Lambda increased, which is another indication of saturation. After two months of injection, as compared to one month before injection. Bulk modulus and Vp have returned to values comparable to before injection for the volume around the well bottom. A new anomaly in Vp has moved below the well. Vs continues to be low and Lambda and Poisson's ratio continue to be high compared to before injection. These changes have not moved, but increased in size. We interpret these observations to indicate continued saturation, but with increased fracturing. Only Vp and bulk modulus have changed significantly and this is due to the increased fracturing offsetting the saturation.

  15. Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra and swarms in the Salton Trough, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

    2011-09-01

    We study earthquakes within California's Salton Trough from 1981 to 2009 from a precisely relocated catalog. We process the seismic waveforms to isolate source spectra, station spectra and travel-time dependent spectra. The results suggest an average P wave Q of 340, agreeing with previous results indicating relatively high attenuation in the Salton Trough. Stress drops estimated from the source spectra using an empirical Green's function (EGF) method reveal large scatter among individual events but a low median stress drop of 0.56 MPa for the region. The distribution of stress drop after applying a spatial-median filter indicates lower stress drops near geothermal sites. We explore the relationships between seismicity, stress drops and geothermal injection activities. Seismicity within the Salton Trough shows strong spatial clustering, with 20 distinct earthquake swarms with at least 50 events. They can be separated into early-Mmax and late-Mmax groups based on the normalized occurrence time of their largest event. These swarms generally have a low skew value of moment release history, ranging from -9 to 3.0. The major temporal difference between the two groups is the excess of seismicity and an inverse power law increase of seismicity before the largest event for the late-Mmax group. All swarms exhibit spatial migration of seismicity at a statistical significance greater than 85%. A weighted L1-norm inversion of linear migration parameters yields migration velocities from 0.008 to 0.8 km/hour. To explore the influence of fluid injection in geothermal sites, we also model the migration behavior with the diffusion equation, and obtain a hydraulic diffusion coefficient of approximately 0.25 m2/s for the Salton Sea geothermal site, which is within the range of expected values for a typical geothermal reservoir. The swarms with migration velocities over 0.1 km/hour cannot be explained by the diffusion curve, rather, their velocity is consistent with the propagation velocity of creep and slow slip events. These variations in migration behavior allow us to distinguish among different driving processes.

  16. Directional topographic site response at Tarzana observed in aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Implications for mainshock motions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Hellweg, M.; Lee, W.H.K.

    1996-01-01

    The Northridge earthquake caused 1.78 g acceleration in the east-west direction at a site in Tarzana, California, located about 6 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The accelerograph was located atop a hill about 15-m high, 500-m long, and 130-m wide, striking about N78??E. During the aftershock sequence, a temporary array of 21 three-component geophones was deployed in six radial lines centered on the accelerograph, with an average sensor spacing of 35 m. Station COO was located about 2 m from the accelerograph. We inverted aftershock spectra to obtain average relative site response at each station as a function of direction of ground motion. We identified a 3.2-Hz resonance that is a transverse oscillation of the hill (a directional topographic effect). The top/base amplification ratio at 3.2 Hz is about 4.5 for horizontal ground motions oriented approximately perpendicular to the long axis of the hill and about 2 for motions parallel to the hill. This resonance is seen most strongly within 50 m of COO. Other resonant frequencies were also observed. A strong lateral variation in attenuation, probably associated with a fault, caused substantially lower motion at frequencies above 6 Hz at the east end of the hill. There may be some additional scattered waves associated with the fault zone and seen at both the base and top of the hill, causing particle motions (not spectral ratios) at the top of the hill to be rotated about 20?? away from the direction transverse to the hill. The resonant frequency, but not the amplitude, of our observed topographic resonance agrees well with theory, even for such a low hill. Comparisons of our observations with theoretical results indicate that the 3D shape of the hill and its internal structure are important factors affecting its response. The strong transverse resonance of the hill does not account for the large east-west mainshock motions. Assuming linear soil response, mainshock east-west motions at the Tarzana accelerograph were amplified by a factor of about 2 or less compared with sites at the base of the hill. Probable variations in surficial shear-wave velocity do not account for the observed differences among mainshock acceleration observed at Tarzana and at two different sites within 2 km of Tarzana.

  17. Earthquake warning system for Japan Railways’ bullet train; implications for disaster prevention in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nakamura, Y.; Tucker, B. E.

    1988-01-01

    Today, Japanese society is well aware of the prediction of the Tokai earthquake. It is estimated by the Tokyo earthquake. It is estimated by the Tokyo muncipal government that this predicted earthquake could kill 30,000 people. (this estimate is viewed by many as conservative; other Japanese government agencies have made estimates but they have not been published.) Reduction in the number deaths from 120,000 to 30,000 between the Kanto earthquake and the predicted Tokai earthquake is due in large part to the reduction in the proportion of wooden construction (houses). 

  18. A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Felzer, K.

    2008-01-01

    We have used observations from Felzer and Brodsky (2006) of the variation of linear aftershock densities (i.e., aftershocks per unit length) with the magnitude of and distance from the main shock fault to derive constraints on how the probability of a main shock triggering a single aftershock at a point, P(r, D), varies as a function of distance, r, and main shock rupture dimension, D. We find that P(r, D) becomes independent of D as the triggering fault is approached. When r ??? D P(r, D) scales as Dm where m-2 and decays with distance approximately as r-n with n = 2, with a possible change to r-(n-1) at r > h, where h is the closest distance between the fault and the boundaries of the seismogenic zone. These constraints may be used to test hypotheses about the types of deformations and mechanisms that trigger aftershocks. We illustrate this using dynamic deformations (i.e., radiated seismic waves) and a posited proportionality with P(r, D). Deformation characteristics examined include peak displacements, peak accelerations and velocities (proportional to strain rates and strains, respectively), and two measures that account for cumulative deformations. Our model indicates that either peak strains alone or strain rates averaged over the duration of rupture may be responsible for aftershock triggering.

  19. Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez earthquakes: an application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

    2002-01-01

    The Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas fault, site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985, is the best monitored section of the world's most closely watched fault. In 1983, the M = 6.5 Coalinga and M = 6.0 Nuñez events struck 25 km northeast of Parkfield. Seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the San Andreas north of Parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south. Right-lateral creep also slowed or reversed from Parkfield south. Here we calculate that the Coalinga sequence increased the shear and Coulomb stress on the creeping section, causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip. However, the 1983 events decreased the shear and Coulomb stress on the Parkfield segment, causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop. We use these observations to cast the likelihood of a Parkfield earthquake into an interaction-based probability, which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 Coalinga events. We calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10-year probability of a M ∼ 6 Parkfield earthquake by 22% (from 54 ± 22% to 42 ± 23%) and that the probability did not recover until about 1991, when seismicity and creep resumed. Our analysis may thus explain why the Parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s, but not why it was absent in the 1990s. We calculate a 58 ± 17% probability of a M ∼ 6 Parkfield earthquake during 2001–2011.

  20. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion simulations of a Hayward Fault earthquake, (5) a new USGS Fact Sheet about the earthquake and the Hayward Fault, (6) a virtual tour of the 1868 earthquake, and (7) a new online field trip guide to the Hayward Fault using locations accessible by car and public transit. Finally, the California Geological Survey and many other Alliance members sponsored the Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the East Bay at CSU East Bay in Hayward for the three days following the 140th anniversary. The 1868 Alliance hopes to commemorate the anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake every year to maintain and increase public awareness of this fault, the hazards it and other East Bay Faults pose, and the ongoing need for earthquake preparedness and mitigation.

  1. Focal Mechanisms for Deep Crustal Earthquakes in the Central Foothills and Near Yosemite National Park in the Sierra Nevada, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, J. C.; Frassetto, A.; Hurd, O.; Zandt, G.; Gilbert, H.; Owens, T.; Jones, C.

    2008-12-01

    Past studies have observed seismicity occurring to depths near 40 km beneath the central Sierra Nevada in eastern California, but the cause of this unusual activity remains largely unknown. We use seismograms from a recent deployment of the Sierra Nevada EarthScope Project (SNEP) broadband array and interspersed USArray TA stations to study this deep crustal earthquake activity. From June of 2005 to May of 2006, we recorded 126 earthquakes in the central western flank of the Sierra Nevada that relocated in the depth range from 1.0 to 47.6 km. These earthquakes have small magnitudes (M < 3), occur at a rate of ~10 per month, and occasionally display repeating waveforms. The majority of the earthquakes fall into two distinct clusters. One cluster of earthquakes form a diffuse band under the low foothills north of Fresno and have focal depths mostly between 20 and 35 km. The second cluster underlies the higher western slope of the range in a more compact north-south band extending from the southern edge of Yosemite National Park to the San Joaquin River. These events have focal depths from near surface to 30 km, and are located above occasional deep, long-period (LP) events (Pitt, et al., SRL, 2002). We use P- and S-wave polarity picks and P/SH amplitude ratios to construct focal mechanisms for 23 of the larger, well-recorded earthquakes, 14 in the Foothills Cluster and 9 in the Yosemite Cluster. The focal mechanisms show dominantly near vertical and subhorizontal nodal planes, although several events do show clear normal or reverse mechanisms. Although there is some scatter, a majority of the mechanisms from the Foothills Cluster have S-to-SW steeply dipping T-axes. The majority of earthquakes in the Yosemite Cluster have P-axes moderately dipping to the SW and T-axes moderately dipping to the NE, similar to focal mechanisms of earthquakes associated with the recent magma intrusion event under Lake Tahoe (von Seggern, et al., BSSA, 2008). We suggest that the earthquakes in the Foothills Cluster are occurring in response to the downward pull of an attached piece of dense ultramafic batholith residue and the events in the Yosemite Cluster are related to post-delamination crustal magmatic processes.

  2. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work.

  3. Recent developments in understanding the tectonic evolution of the Southern California offshore area: Implications for earthquake-hazard analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, M.A.; Langenheim, V.E.; Nicholson, C.; Ryan, H.F.; Sliter, R.W.

    2009-01-01

    During late Mesozoic and Cenozoic time, three main tectonic episodes affected the Southern California offshore area. Each episode imposed its unique structural imprint such that early-formed structures controlled or at least influenced the location and development of later ones. This cascaded structural inheritance greatly complicates analysis of the extent, orientation, and activity of modern faults. These fault attributes play key roles in estimates of earthquake magnitude and recurrence interval. Hence, understanding the earthquake hazard posed by offshore and coastal faults requires an understanding of the history of structural inheritance and modifi-cation. In this report we review recent (mainly since 1987) findings about the tectonic development of the Southern California offshore area and use analog models of fault deformation as guides to comprehend the bewildering variety of offshore structures that developed over time. This report also provides a background in regional tectonics for other chapters in this section that deal with the threat from offshore geologic hazards in Southern California. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  4. Behavior of Repeating Earthquake Sequences in Central California and the Implications for Subsurface Fault Creep

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, D C; Nadeau, R; Burgmann, R

    2007-07-09

    Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of events that have nearly identical waveforms and are interpreted to represent fault asperities driven to failure by loading from aseismic creep on the surrounding fault surface at depth. We investigate the occurrence of these REs along faults in central California to determine which faults exhibit creep and the spatio-temporal distribution of this creep. At the juncture of the San Andreas and southern Calaveras-Paicines faults, both faults as well as a smaller secondary fault, the Quien Sabe fault, are observed to produce REs over the observation period of March 1984-May 2005. REs in this area reflect a heterogeneous creep distribution along the fault plane with significant variations in time. Cumulative slip over the observation period at individual sequence locations is determined to range from 5.5-58.2 cm on the San Andreas fault, 4.8-14.1 cm on the southern Calaveras-Paicines fault, and 4.9-24.8 cm on the Quien Sabe fault. Creep at depth appears to mimic the behaviors seen of creep on the surface in that evidence of steady slip, triggered slip, and episodic slip phenomena are also observed in the RE sequences. For comparison, we investigate the occurrence of REs west of the San Andreas fault within the southern Coast Range. Events within these RE sequences only occurred minutes to weeks apart from each other and then did not repeat again over the observation period, suggesting that REs in this area are not produced by steady aseismic creep of the surrounding fault surface.

  5. Virtual California, ETAS, and OpenHazards web services: Responding to earthquakes in the age of Big Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, M. R.; Schultz, K.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    The response to the 2014 m=6 Napa earthquake showcased data driven services and technologies that aided first responders and decision makers to quickly assess damage, estimate aftershock hazard, and efficiently allocate resources where where they were most needed. These tools have been developed from fundamental research as part of a broad collaboration -- facilitated in no small party by the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, between researchers, policy makers, and executive decision makers and practiced and honed during numerous disaster response exercises over the past several years. On 24 August 2014, and the weeks following the m=6 Napa event, it became evident that these technologies will play an important role in the response to natural (and other) disasters in the 21st century. Given the continued rapid growth of computational capabilities, remote sensing technologies, and data gathering capacities -- including by unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), it is reasonable to expect that both the volume and variety of data available during a response scenario will grow significantly in the decades to come. Inevitably, modern Data Science will be critical to effective disaster response in the 21st century. In this work, we discuss the roles that earthquake simulators, statistical seismicity models, and remote sensing technologies played in the the 2014 Napa earthquake response. We further discuss "Big Data" technologies and data models that facilitate the transformation of raw data into disseminable information and actionable products, and we outline a framework for the next generation of disaster response data infrastructure.

  6. In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Urban, T.C.

    1985-01-01

    Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  7. LLNL-Generated Content for the California Academy of Sciences, Morrison Planetarium Full-Dome Show: Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, A J; Petersson, N A; Morency, C E; Simmons, N A; Sjogreen, B

    2012-01-23

    The California Academy of Sciences (CAS) Morrison Planetarium is producing a 'full-dome' planetarium show on earthquakes and asked LLNL to produce content for the show. Specifically the show features numerical ground motion simulations of the M 7.9 1906 San Francisco and a possible future M 7.05 Hayward fault scenario earthquake. The show also features concepts of plate tectonics and mantle convection using images from LLNL's G3D global seismic tomography. This document describes the data that was provided to the CAS in support of production of the 'Earthquake' show. The CAS is located in Golden Gate Park, San Francisco and hosts over 1.6 million visitors. The Morrison Planetarium, within the CAS, is the largest all digital planetarium in the world. It features a 75-foot diameter spherical section projection screen tilted at a 30-degree angle. Six projectors cover the entire field of view and give a three-dimensional immersive experience. CAS shows strive to use scientifically accurate digital data in their productions. The show, entitled simply 'Earthquake', will debut on 26 May 2012. They are working on graphics and animations based on the same data sets for display on LLNL powerwalls and flat-screens as well as for public release.

  8. CISN ShakeAlert: Three Years of Comparative Real-Time Earthquake Early Warning Testing in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Allen, R. M.; Boese, M.; Brown, H.; Given, D.; Fischer, M.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T. H.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T. H.; Khainovski, O.; Maechling, P. J.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Oppenheimer, D. H.; Solanki, K.

    2009-12-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) recently concluded a three-year project (August 2006-July 2009) aimed at the implementation, real-time testing, and comparative performance evaluation of three participating earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms: 1) the Tau-C/P-d onsite algorithm developed by the California Institute of Technology, 2) the ElarmS algorithm developed by UC Berkeley, and 3) the Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm developed by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich. These 3 EEW algorithms were installed and tested, and continue to run in real-time, at the Southern California Seismic Network, the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network, and the USGS Menlo Park network. The OnSite algorithm provides single-station magnitude estimates and estimates peak ground velocity at a given station. ElarmS and VS both provide magnitude and location estimates, as well as estimates of the geographic distribution of peak ground shaking. Over the last three years, these EEW algorithms submitted real-time and automatic non-interactive offline event reports to the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) EEW Testing Center, which independently evaluated algorithm performance relative to the ANSS earthquake catalogue and observed ground motion datasets. We quantify the performance of these participating algorithms in terms of the accuracy of magnitude, location, and peak ground motion estimation, as well as the speed at which the algorithms provide information. Based on the derived performance characteristics, we infer how a prototype system based on the three algorithms might operate given alternative conditions, such as shorter telemetry delays, faster processing times, or higher station densities. The 2006-2009 CISN-EEW project demonstrated the feasibility and potential benefits of EEW in California. A new USGS-funded effort is underway to develop key components of CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. These key components include: 1) integration of the three algorithms into a single processing thread capable of providing alerts, 2) development of partnerships with key test users, and 3) development of protocols and procedures in collaboration with the test users that will govern the form and release of EEW information, if such a system is built.

  9. Earthquake Cycle Deformation at the Ballenas Transform, Gulf of California, Mexico, from InSAR and GPS Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Christina; Fattahi, Heresh; Malservisi, Rocco; Amelung, Falk; Verdecchia, Alessandro; Dixon, Timothy H.

    2015-05-01

    We study crustal deformation across the Ballenas marine channel, Gulf of California, Mexico using InSAR and campaign GPS data. Interseismic velocities are calculated by time-series analysis spanning five years of data. Displacements from the August 3rd 2009 Mw 6.9 earthquake are calculated by differencing the most recent observations before and after the event. To estimate the offset across the marine channel we calibrate the InSAR velocity and displacement fields using the corresponding GPS data. Unfortunately, the InSAR interseismic velocity field is affected by residual tropospheric delay. We interpret the GPS interseismic and the GPS and InSAR coseismic deformation data using dislocation modeling and compare the fault kinematics during these periods of the earthquake cycle.

  10. Borehole velocity measurements at five sites that recorded the Cape Mendocino, California earthquake of 25 April, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibbs, James F.; Tinsley, John C., III; Boore, David M.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of an ongoing program to acquire seismic velocity and geologic data at locations that recorded strong-ground motions during earthquakes, has investigated five sites in the Fortuna, California region (Figure 1). We selected drill sites at strong-motion stations that recorded high accelerations (Table 1) from the Cape Mendocino earthquake (M 7.0) of 25 April 1992 (Oppenheimer et al., 1993). The boreholes were drilled to a nominal depth of 95 meters (310 ft) and cased with schedule 80 pvc-casing grouted in place at each location. S-wave and P-wave data were acquired at each site using a surface source and a borehole three-component geophone. This report contains the velocity models interpreted from the borehole data and gives reference to locations and peak accelerations at the selected strong-motion stations.

  11. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market.

  12. Instrumental intensity distribution for the Hector Mine, California, and the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquakes: Comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sokolov, V.; Wald, D.J.

    2002-01-01

    We compare two methods of seismic-intensity estimation from ground-motion records for the two recent strong earthquakes: the 1999 (M 7.1) Hector Mine, California, and the 1999 (M 7.6) Chi-Chi, Taiwan. The first technique utilizes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), and it is used for rapid generation of the instrumental intensity map in California. The other method is based on the revised relationships between intensity and Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS). The results of using the methods are compared with independently observed data and between the estimations from the records. For the case of the Hector Mine earthquake, the calculated intensities in general agree with the observed values. For the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the areas of maximum calculated intensity correspond to the areas of the greatest damage and highest number of fatalities. However, the FAS method producees higher-intensity values than those of the peak amplitude method. The specific features of ground-motion excitation during the large, shallow, thrust earthquake may be considered a reason for the discrepancy. The use of PGA and PGV is simple; however, the use of FAS provides a natural consideration of site amplification by means of generalized or site-specific spectral ratios. Because the calculation of seismic-intensity maps requires rapid processing of data from a large network, it is very practical to generate a "first-order" map from the recorded peak motions. Then, a "second-order" map may be compiled using an amplitude-spectra method on the basis of available records and numerical modeling of the site-dependent spectra for the regions of sparse station spacing.

  13. The magnitude 6.7 northridge, california, earthquake of 17 january 1994.

    PubMed

    1994-10-21

    The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes. PMID:17816681

  14. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, L.; Aki, K.; Boore, D.; Celebi, M.; Donnellan, A.; Hall, J.; Harris, R.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hudnut, K.; Hutton, K.; Johnston, M.; Joyner, W.; Kanamori, H.; Marshall, G.; Michael, A.; Mori, J.; Murray, M.; Ponti, D.; Reasenberg, P.; Schwartz, D.; Seeber, L.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R.; Thio, H.; Tinsley, J.; Todorovska, M.; Trifunac, M.; Wald, D.; Zoback, M.L.

    1994-01-01

    The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.

  15. Monitoring Local and Teleseismic Earthquakes Off--Shore San Diego(California) During an OBSIP Test Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laske, G.; Babcock, J.; Hollinshead, C.; Georgieff, P.; Allmann, B.; Orcutt, J.

    2004-12-01

    The Scripps OBS (Ocean Bottom Seismometer) team is one of three groups that provide instrumentation for the US National OBS Instrument Pool (OBSIP). The compact active source LC2000 instruments are being used successfully in numerous experiments, with excellent data quality and return rates. A set of five new passive seismic instruments was test--deployed from November 6th, 2003 through January 8th, 2004 in the San Diego Trough, about 1km below the sea surface, about 40km off--shore San Diego, California. These instruments are equipped with a Nanometrics Trillium 40s 3--component seismometer and a Cox--Webb differential pressure gauge. We recorded more than 30 teleseismic earthquakes suitable for a long-period surface wave study. The vertical--component seismometer recordings are of excellent quality and are often superior to those from similar sensors on land (Guralp CMG-40T). The signal--to--noise ratio on the DPGs depend strongly on the water depth and was expected to be low for the test deployment. Nevertheless, the December 22, 2003 San Simeon/ California earthquake was recorded with high fidelity and non--seismogenic signals are extremely coherent down to very long periods. We also recorded numerous local earthquakes. Many of these occurred off-shore and the OBSs were the closest stations by many tens of kilometers. For example, a magnitude 3.0 earthquake on the Coronado Banks Fault was recorded at station SOL in La Jolla at about 30km distance, with a signal-to-noise ratio too poor to pick the first arrival. The next closest stations were 60km and 80km away, while one of the OBSs was only 20km away. The co-deployment of DPGs allowed us to observe the first P arrival very clearly. We also recorded numerous events that were not recorded on land. About six months later, on June 15, 2004 the greater San Diego area was struck by a magnitude 5.2 earthquake on the San Clemente Fault, about 40km southwest of the OBS test deployment. Though no structural damage was reported, intensity 4 shaking occurred throughout the city, which prompted Amtrak and Sea World to shut down operations for inspections. These events are continous reminders that significant seismic hazard is caused by activity along the only poorly understood, off-shore faults in the California Borderland. Realtime seismic monitoring using cabled or moored seismic observatories is clearly needed.

  16. Damage and restoration of geodetic infrastructure caused by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkinson, Kathleen M.; Stein, Ross S.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Satalich, Jay; Richards, John H.

    1996-01-01

    We seek to restore the integrity of the geodetic network in the San Fernando, Simi, Santa Clarita Valleys and in the northern Los Angeles Basin by remeasurement of the network and identification of BMs which experienced non-tectonic displacements associated with the Northridge earthquake. We then use the observed displacement of BMs in the network to portray or predict the permanent vertical and horizontal deformation associated with the 1994 Northridge earthquake throughout the area, including sites where we lack geodetic measurements. To accomplish this, we find the fault geometry and earthquake slip that are most compatible with the geodetic and independent seismic observations of the earthquake. We then use that fault model to predict the deformation everywhere at the earth's surface, both at locations where geodetic observations exist and also where they are absent. We compare displacements predicted for a large number of numerical models of the earthquake faulting to the coseismic displacements, treating the earthquake fault as a cut or discontinuity embedded in a stiff elastic solid. This comparison is made after non-tectonic deformation has been removed from the measured elevation changes. The fault slip produces strain in the medium and deforms the ground surface. The model compatible with seismic observations that best fits the geodetic data within their uncertainties is selected. The acceptable model fault bisects the mainshock focus, and the earthquake size , magnitude, is compatible with the earthquake size measured seismically. Our fault model was used to identify geodetic monuments on engineered structures that were anomalously displaced by the earthquake.

  17. Earthquake-induced structures in sediments of Van Norman Lake, San Fernando, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sims, J.D.

    1973-01-01

    The 9 February 1971 earthquake in the San Fernando Valley damaged the Lower Van Norman Dam severely enough to warrant draining the reservoir. In March 1972 the sediment deposited on the reservoir floor was examined to determine whether the 1971 earthquake had induced sediment deformation and, if so, what types. A zone of deformational structures characterized by small-scale loads and slightly recumbent folds associated with the 1971 earthquake was discovered, in addition to two older zones of load structures. Each of the zones has been tentatively correlated with an historic earthquake.

  18. Earthquake-by-earthquake fold growth above the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, Los Angeles, California: Implications for fold kinematics and seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leon, L.A.; Christofferson, S.A.; Dolan, J.F.; Shaw, J.H.; Pratt, T.L.

    2007-01-01

    Boreholes and high-resolution seismic reflection data collected across the forelimb growth triangle above the central segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (PHT) beneath Los Angeles, California, provide a detailed record of incremental fold growth during large earthquakes on this major blind thrust fault. These data document fold growth within a discrete kink band that narrows upward from ???460 m at the base of the Quaternary section (200-250 m depth) to 82% at 250 m depth) folding and uplift occur within discrete kink bands, thereby enabling us to develop a paleoseismic history of the underlying blind thrust fault. The borehole data reveal that the youngest part of the growth triangle in the uppermost 20 m comprises three stratigraphically discrete growth intervals marked by southward thickening sedimentary strata that are separated by intervals in which sediments do not change thickness across the site. We interpret the intervals of growth as occurring after the formation of now-buried paleofold scarps during three large PHT earthquakes in the past 8 kyr. The intervening intervals of no growth record periods of structural quiescence and deposition at the regional, near-horizontal stream gradient at the study site. Minimum uplift in each of the scarp-forming events, which occurred at 0.2-2.2 ka (event Y), 3.0-6.3 ka (event X), and 6.6-8.1 ka (event W), ranged from ???1.1 to ???1.6 m, indicating minimum thrust displacements of ???2.5 to 4.5 m. Such large displacements are consistent with the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 7). Cumulative, minimum uplift in the past three events was 3.3 to 4.7 m, suggesting cumulative thrust displacement of ???7 to 10.5 m. These values yield a minimum Holocene slip rate for the PHT of ???0.9 to 1.6 mm/yr. The borehole and seismic reflection data demonstrate that dip within the kink band is acquired incrementally, such that older strata that have been deformed by more earthquakes dip more steeply than younger strata. Specifically, strata dip 0.4?? at 4 m depth, 0.7?? at 20 m depth, 8?? at 90 m, 16?? at 110 m, and 17?? at 200 m. Moreover, structural restorations of the borehole data show that the locus of active folding (the anticlinal active axial surface) does not extend to the surface in exactly the same location from earthquake to earthquake. Rather, that the axial surfaces migrate from earthquake to earthquake, reflecting a component of fold growth by kink band migration. The incremental acquisition of bed dip in the growth triangle may reflect some combination of fold growth by limb rotation in addition to kink band migration, possibly through a component of trishear or shear fault bend folding. Alternatively, the component of limb rotation may result from curved hinge fault bend folding, and/or the mechanical response of loosely consolidated granular sediments in the shallow subsurface to folding at depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Current progress in using multiple electromagnetic indicators to determine location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes in California and Peru (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleier, T. E.; Dunson, C.; Roth, S.; Heraud, J.; Freund, F. T.; Dahlgren, R.; Bryant, N.; Bambery, R.; Lira, A.

    2010-12-01

    Since ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic anomalies were discovered prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta, Ca. M7.0 earthquake, QuakeFinder, a small R&D group based in Palo Alto California has systematically monitored ULF magnetic signals with a network of 3-axis induction magnetometers since 2000 in California. This raw magnetometer data was collected at 20-50 samples per sec., with no preprocessing, in an attempt to collect an accurate time history of electromagnetic waveforms prior to, during, and after large earthquakes within 30 km. of these sensors. Finally in October 2007, the QuakeFinder team observed a series of strange magnetic pulsations at the Alum Rock, California site, 14 days prior to M5.4 earthquake. These magnetic signals observed were relatively short, random pulsations, not continuous waveform signals like Pc1 or Pc3 micropulsations. The magnetic pulses have a characteristic uni-polar shapes and 0.5 sec. to 30 sec. durations, much longer than lightning signals. In May of 2010, very similar pulses were observed at Tacna, Peru, 13 days prior to a M6.2 earthquake, using a QuakeFinder station jointly operated under collaboration with the Catholic University in Lima Peru (PUCP). More examples of these pulsations were sought, and a historical review of older California magnetic data discovered fewer but similar pulsations occurred at the Hollister, Ca. site operated by UC Berkeley (e.g. San Juan Bautista M5.1 earthquake on August 12, 1998). Further analysis of the direction of arrival of the magnetic pulses showed an interesting “azimuth clustering” observed in both Alum Rock, Ca. and Tacna, Peru data. The complete time series of the Alum Rock data allowed the team to analyze subsequent changes observed in magnetometer “filter banks” (0.001 Hz to 10 Hz filter bands, similar to those used by Fraser-Smith in 1989), but this time using time-adjusted limits based on time of day, time of year, Kp, and site background noise. These site-customized limits showed similar increases in 30 minute averaged energy excursions, but the 30 minute averages had a disadvantage in that they reduced the signal to noise ratio over the individual pulse counting method. In other electromagnetic monitoring methods, air conductivity instrumentation showed major changes in positive air-borne ions observed near the Alum Rock and Tacna sites, peaking during the 24 hours prior to the earthquake. The use of GOES (geosynchronous) satellite infra red (IR) data showed that an unusual apparent “night time heating” occurred in an extended area within 40+ km. of the Alum Rock site, and this IR signature peaked around the time of the magnetic pulse count peak. The combination of these 3 indicators (magnetic pulse counts, air conductivity, and IR night time heating) may be the start in determining the time (within 1-2 weeks), location (within 20-40km) and magnitude (within +/- 1 increment of Richter magnitude) of earthquake greater than M5.4

  20. Cross-sections and maps showing double-difference relocated earthquakes from 1984-2000 along the Hayward and Calaveras faults, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.; Graymer, Russell W.; Jachens, Robert C.; Ponce, David A.; Wentworth, Carl M.

    2004-01-01

    We present cross-section and map views of earthquakes that occurred from 1984 to 2000 in the vicinity of the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay region, California. These earthquakes came from a catalog of events relocated using the double-difference technique, which provides superior relative locations of nearby events. As a result, structures such as fault surfaces and alignments of events along these surfaces are more sharply defined than in previous catalogs.

  1. The Magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake of January 17, 1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnellan, A.

    1994-01-01

    The most damaging earthquake in the United States since 1906 struck northern Los Angeles on January 17.1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake produced a maximum of more than 3 meters of reverse (up-dip) slip on a south-dipping thrust fault rooted under the San Fernando Valley and projecting north under the Santa Susana Mountains.

  2. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Performance of the Built Environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    Professional Paper 1552 focuses on the response of buildings, lifelines, highway systems, and earth structures to the earthquake. Losses to these systems totaled approximated $5.9 billion. The earthquake displaced many residents from their homes and severely disrupted transportation systems. Some significant findings were: * Approximately 16,000 housing units were uninhabitable after the earthquake including 13,000 in the San Francisco Bay region. Another 30,000-35,000 units were moderately damaged in the earthquake. Renters and low-income residents were particularly hard hit. * Failure of highway systems was the single largest cause of loss of life during the earthquake. Forty-two of the 63 earthquake fatalities died when the Cypress Viaduct in Oakland collapsed. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by the earthquake was $2 billion, about half of which was to replace the Cypress Viaduct. * Major bridge failures were the result of antiquated designs and inadequate anticipation of seismic loading. * Twenty one kilometers (13 mi) of gas-distribution lines had to be replaced in several communities and more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections had to be excavated and repaired. At least 5 electrical substations were badly damaged, overwhelming the designed redundancy of the electrical system. * Instruments in 28 buildings recorded their response to earthquake shaking that provided opportunities to understand how different types of buildings responded, the importance of site amplification, and how buildings interact with their foundation when shaken (soil structure interaction).

  3. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Preseismic Observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, Malcolm J. S., (Edited By)

    1993-01-01

    The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.

  4. Seismotectonics of the 2010 El Mayor Cucapah - Indiviso Earthquake and its Relation to Seismic Hazard in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, J. J.; Gonzalez Ortega, A.; Bock, Y.; Fialko, Y.; Fielding, E. J.; Fletcher, J. M.; Galetzka, J. E.; Hudnut, K. W.; Munguia, L.; Nelson, S. M.; Rockwell, T. K.; Sandwell, D. T.; Stock, J.

    2010-12-01

    The April 4th, 2010 Mw 7.2 earthquake was the largest earthquake in over 100 years of known historical seismicity in the Salton Trough region. It was a relatively benign earthquake, with only two deaths related to its occurrence. It produced, however, profound agricultural and ecological changes at the southern section of the Mexicali Valley, where a new fault called the Indiviso fault, is shown to have ruptured by analysis of ALOS PALSAR and Landsat imagery. The Indiviso fault connects the ridge-transform and continental transform tectonic regimes with a straight linkage, as revealed by this earthquake, but this event also simultaneously involved oblique normal faulting and cross-faulting. The earthquake was complex, with at least three distinct slip pulses. It originated as a normal rupture along the ~18 km long, N-S striking El Mayor-Hardy fault along the east margin of the Sierra El Mayor. After 10 seconds, two large bursts of energy were released, one to the NW and one to the SE, producing the total moment release equivalent to Mw 7.25. The NW ruptures reactivated portions of the Pescadores, Borrego and Paso Superior faults with minor slip along the Laguna Salada and several other faults. This section had a dominant right lateral strike slip sense of motion with the NE side down. To the SE of the epicenter, disruption occurred along the dominantly strike-slip Indiviso fault, with a SW side down component of dip slip. The epicentral aftershock area, including its main aftershock to the NW, is >120 km in length; the surficial faulting occurs along ~110 km with 6-9 km of splaying to the N-NE at the NW end and to the S-SW at the SE end. The El Mayor Cucapah - Indiviso event follows nine M>6.5 earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in the past 80 years between the head of the Gulf of California and the Transverse Ranges. Long, straight fault segments capable of larger earthquakes, and that have not ruptured historically, include portions of the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, and the entire southern San Andreas Fault.

  5. Ground-water-level monitoring for earthquake prediction; a progress report based on data collected in Southern California, 1976-79

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moyle, W.R., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a research program to determine if groundwater-level measurements can be used for earthquake prediction. Earlier studies suggest that water levels in wells may be responsive to small strains on the order of 10 to the minus 8th power to 10 to the minus 10th power (dimensionless). Water-level data being collected in the area of the southern California uplift show response to earthquakes and other natural and manmade effects. The data are presently (1979) being made ready for computer analysis. The completed analysis may indicate the presence of precursory earthquake information. (USGS)

  6. Liquefaction and other ground failures in Imperial County, California, from the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCrink, Timothy P.; Pridmore, Cynthia L.; Tinsley, John C., III; Sickler, Robert R.; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Stewart, Jonathan P.

    2011-01-01

    The Colorado River Delta region of southern Imperial Valley, California, and Mexicali Valley, Baja California, is a tectonically dynamic area characterized by numerous active faults and frequent large seismic events. Significant earthquakes that have been accompanied by surface fault rupture and/or soil liquefaction occurred in this region in 1892 (M7.1), 1915 (M6.3; M7.1), 1930 (M5.7), 1940 (M6.9), 1950 (M5.4), 1957 (M5.2), 1968 (6.5), 1979 (6.4), 1980 (M6.1), 1981 (M5.8), and 1987 (M6.2; M6.8). Following this trend, the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010, ruptured approximately 120 kilometers along several known faults in Baja California. Liquefaction caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was widespread throughout the southern Imperial Valley but concentrated in the southwest corner of the valley, southwest of the city centers of Calexico and El Centro where ground motions were highest. Although there are few strong motion recordings in the very western part of the area, the recordings that do exist indicate that ground motions were on the order of 0.3 to 0.6g where the majority of liquefaction occurrences were found. More distant liquefaction occurrences, at Fites Road southwest of Brawley and along Rosita Canal northwest of Holtville were triggered where ground motions were about 0.2 g. Damage to roads was associated mainly with liquefaction of sandy river deposits beneath bridge approach fills, and in some cases liquefaction within the fills. Liquefaction damage to canal and drain levees was not always accompanied by vented sand, but the nature of the damage leads the authors to infer that liquefaction was involved in the majority of observed cases. Liquefaction-related damage to several public facilities - Calexico Waste Water Treatment Plant, Fig Lagoon levee system, and Sunbeam Lake Dam in particular - appears to be extensive. The cost to repair these facilities to prevent future liquefaction damage will likely be prohibitive. As such, it is likely that liquefaction will recur at these facilities during the next large earthquake in this area.

  7. Offshore and onshore liquefaction at Moss Landing spit, central California - result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, H.G.; Chase, T.E.; Hicks, K.R. ); Gardner-Taggart, J.; Ledbetter, M.T.; Barminski, R. ); Baxter, C. )

    1991-09-01

    As a result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta (Santa Cruz Mountains, California) earthquake, liquefaction of the fluvial, estuarine, eolian, and beach sediments under a sand spit destroyed the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories and damaged other structures and utilities. Initial studies suggested that the liquefaction was a local phenomenon. More detailed offshore investigations, however, indicate that it occurred over a large area (maximum 8 km{sup 2}) during or shortly after the earthquake with movement of unconsolidated sediment toward and into the head of Monterey submarine canyon. This conclusion is supported by side-scan sonographs, high-resolution seismic-reflection and bathymetric profiles, onshore and sea-floor photographs, and underwater video tapes. Many distinct lobate features were identified on the shallow shelf. These features almost certainly were the result of the October 17 earthquake; they were subsequently destroyed by winter storms. In addition, fresh slump scars and recently dislodged mud debris were found on the upper, southern wall of Monterey submarine canyon.

  8. A search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, M.-A.; Werner, M. J.; Woessner, J.; Wiemer, S.

    2014-04-01

    Secondary triggering of aftershocks is widely observed and often ascribed to secondary static stress transfer. However, small to moderate earthquakes are generally disregarded in estimates of Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFS), either because of source parameter uncertainties or a perceived lack of importance. We use recently published high-quality focal mechanisms and hypocenters to reassess the role of small to moderate earthquakes for static stress triggering of aftershocks during the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence. We compare the ΔCFS imparted by aftershocks (2≤M≤6) onto subsequent aftershocks with the total ΔCFS induced by the M>6 main shocks. We find that incremental stress changes between aftershock pairs are potentially more often positive than expected over intermediate distances. Cumulative aftershock stress changes are not reliable for receivers with nearby aftershock stress sources because we exclude unrealistic aftershock stress shadows that result from uniform slip models. Nonetheless, 27% of aftershocks receive greater positive stress from aftershocks than from the main shocks. Overall, 85% of aftershocks are encouraged by the main shocks, while adding secondary stress encourages only 79%. We infer that source parameter uncertainties of small aftershocks remain too large to convincingly demonstrate (or rule out) that secondary stress transfer induces aftershocks. An important exception concerns aftershocks in main shock stress shadows: well-resolved secondary stress from detected aftershocks rarely compensates negative main shock stress; these aftershocks require a different triggering mechanism.

  9. Comments on baseline correction of digital strong-motion data: Examples from the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Stephens, C.D.; Joyner, W.B.

    2002-01-01

    Residual displacements for large earthquakes can sometimes be determined from recordings on modern digital instruments, but baseline offsets of unknown origin make it difficult in many cases to do so. To recover the residual displacement, we suggest tailoring a correction scheme by studying the character of the velocity obtained by integration of zeroth-order-corrected acceleration and then seeing if the residual displacements are stable when the various parameters in the particular correction scheme are varied. For many seismological and engineering purposes, however, the residual displacement are of lesser importance than ground motions at periods less than about 20 sec. These ground motions are often recoverable with simple baseline correction and low-cut filtering. In this largely empirical study, we illustrate the consequences of various correction schemes, drawing primarily from digital recordings of the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. We show that with simple processing the displacement waveforms for this event are very similar for stations separated by as much as 20 km. We also show that a strong pulse on the transverse component was radiated from the Hector Mine earthquake and propagated with little distortion to distances exceeding 170 km; this pulse leads to large response spectral amplitudes around 10 sec.

  10. San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

  11. Assessment of the relative ratio of correlated and uncorrelated waiting times in the Southern California earthquakes catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matcharashvili, Teimuraz; Chelidze, Tamaz; Zhukova, Natalia

    2015-09-01

    In the present study, we investigated the interevent time interval distribution of earthquakes in Southern California. We analyzed and compared datasets of waiting times between consecutive earthquakes and time structure-distorted datasets. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of waiting time values in the original catalogue that can be regarded as statistically distinguishable or indistinguishable from the baseline time intervals datasets where the original structure of the temporal distribution of earthquakes was disrupted. We compiled two types of time structure-distorted baseline sequences, which comprised mean values of: (a) shuffled original interevent data and (b) interevent times data from time-randomized catalogues. To compare the dynamical characteristics of the original and time structure-distorted baseline sequences, we used several data analysis methods such as power spectrum regression, detrended fluctuation, and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We also tested the nonlinear structure of the original and baseline sequences using the magnitude and sign scaling analysis method. We calculated theZscore in order to assess whether the interevent time values in the original dataset shared statistical similarity or dissimilarity with the time structure-distorted baseline interevent data sequence. We compared the interevent time values in the original dataset with the mean baseline interevent times computed for two types of time structure-distorted sequences. The results showed that about 30% of the original interevent times were statistically indistinguishable from the mean of the shuffled dataset and 10% from the mean of the time structure-distorted baseline interevent dataset. We performed similar analyses for other catalogues obtained from different parts of the world. According to the results of this analysis, the proportion of events in the original catalogues that were indistinguishable from sequences with disturbed time structure did not contradict the results obtained for the Southern California catalogue.

  12. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

  13. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Liquefaction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake both reconfirmed the vulnerability of areas in the San Francisco-Monterey Bay region to liquefaction and provided an opportunity to test methodologies for predicting liquefaction that have been developed since the mid-1970's. This vulnerability is documented in the chapter edited by O'Rourke and by the investigators in this chapter who describe case histories of liquefaction damage and warn us about the potential for even greater damage from liquefaction if an earthquake similar to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, but located closer to their study sites, were to occur.

  14. Why earthquakes correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides: Effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeler, N.M.; Lockner, D.A.

    2003-01-01

    We provide an explanation why earthquake occurrence does not correlate well with the daily solid Earth tides. The explanation is derived from analysis of laboratory experiments in which faults are loaded to quasiperiodic failure by the combined action of a constant stressing rate, intended to simulate tectonic loading, and a small sinusoidal stress, analogous to the Earth tides. Event populations whose failure times correlate with the oscillating stress show two modes of response; the response mode depends on the stressing frequency. Correlation that is consistent with stress threshold failure models, e.g., Coulomb failure, results when the period of stress oscillation exceeds a characteristic time tn; the degree of correlation between failure time and the phase of the driving stress depends on the amplitude and frequency of the stress oscillation and on the stressing rate. When the period of the oscillating stress is less than tn, the correlation is not consistent with threshold failure models, and much higher stress amplitudes are required to induce detectable correlation with the oscillating stress. The physical interpretation of tn is the duration of failure nucleation. Behavior at the higher frequencies is consistent with a second-order dependence of the fault strength on sliding rate which determines the duration of nucleation and damps the response to stress change at frequencies greater than 1/tn. Simple extrapolation of these results to the Earth suggests a very weak correlation of earthquakes with the daily Earth tides, one that would require >13,000 earthquakes to detect. On the basis of our experiments and analysis, the absence of definitive daily triggering of earthquakes by the Earth tides requires that for earthquakes, tn exceeds the daily tidal period. The experiments suggest that the minimum typical duration of earthquake nucleation on the San Andreas fault system is ???1 year.

  15. The M7 October 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake, Northern California-140 Years Later

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Boatwright, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Garcia, S.

    2007-12-01

    October 21, 2008 marks the 140th anniversary of the M7 1868 Hayward earthquake. This large earthquake, which occurred slightly before 8 AM, caused extensive damage to San Francisco Bay Area and remains the nation's 12th most lethal earthquake. Property loss was extensive and about 30 people were killed. This earthquake culminated a decade-long series of earthquakes in the Bay Area which started with an M~6 earthquake in the southern Peninsula in 1856, followed by a series of four M5.8 to M6.1 sized earthquakes along the northern Calaveras fault, and ended with a M~6.5 earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in 1865. Despite this flurry of quakes, the shaking from the 1868 earthquake was the strongest that the new towns and growing cities of the Bay Area had ever experienced. The effect on the brick buildings of the time was devastating: walls collapsed in San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose, and buildings cracked as far away as Napa, Santa Rosa, and Hollister. The area that was strongly shaken (at Modified Mercalli Intensity VII or higher) encompassed about 2,300 km2. Aftershocks continued into November 1868. Surface cracking of the ground along the southern end of the Hayward Fault was traced from Warm Springs in Fremont northward 32 km to San Leandro. As Lawson (1908) reports, "the evidence to the northward of San Leandro is not very satisfactory. The country was then unsettled, and the information consisted of reports of cow- boys riding on the range". Analysis of historical triangulation data suggest that the fault moved as far north as Berkeley, and from these data the average slip along the fault is inferred to be about 1.9 0.4 meters. The paleoseismic record from the southern end of the Hayward Fault provides evidence for 10 earthquakes before 1868. The average interval between these earthquakes is 170 80 years, but the last five earthquakes have had an average interval of only 140 50 years. The 1868 Hayward earthquake and more recent analogs such as the 1995 Kobe earthquake are stark reminders of the awesome energy waiting to be released from below the east side of the San Francisco Bay along the Hayward Fault. The population at risk from a Hayward Fault earthquake is now 100 times larger than in 1868. The infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay Area has been tested only by the relatively remote 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To help focus public attention on these hazards, the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance has been formed, consisting of public and private sector agencies and corporations (see their website www.1868alliance.org). The Alliance is planning a series of activities leading up to the 140th anniversary on October 21, 2008. These include public forums, conferences, commemoration events, publications, websites, videos, and public service announcements.

  16. Triggered surface slips in the Coachella Valley area associated with the 1992 Joshua Tree and Landers, California, Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, M.J.

    2000-01-01

    The Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (<3 m thick) veneer of alluvium in contrast to earlier documented triggered slip events in this region, all in the deep basins of the Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right-lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Measured dextral displacement values ranged from 1 to 20 mm, with the largest amounts found in the Mecca Hills where large slip values have been measured following past triggered-slip events.

  17. Lower crustal earthquake swarms beneath Mammoth Mountain, California - evidence for the magmatic roots to the Mammoth Mountain mafic volcanic field?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D. P.; Shelly, D. R.

    2010-12-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a cluster of dacitic domes erupted ~ 68 ka. It stands on the SW topographic rim of Long Valley caldera in eastern CA. Structurally, it is outboard of the caldera ring-fracture system and its magmatic system is genetically distinct from that of the caldera. It resides within a field of mafic (basaltic) vents that erupted between 190 - 8 ka. A series of phreatic explosions from the north flank of the mountain some 700 ybp attest to the infusion of heat to shallow depths shortly prior to the 600 ybp eruptions of the Inyo Domes 6 to 12 km north of the Mountain. Unrest beneath Mammoth Mountain since 1980 has included 1) swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the upper 10 km of the crust that define concentric elliptical ring-like patterns centered beneath the summit, 2) mid-crustal (depths 10 to 20 km) long-period volcanic earthquakes, 3) the onset of diffuse CO2 degassing in 1990 following an 11-month-long swarm of shallow (<10 km), brittle-failure earthquakes in 1989, 4) occasional very-long-period earthquakes at depths of ~ 3 km, and 5) brief swarms of lower-crustal, brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km, including sizable episodes June 16-17, 2006 and September 29-30, 2009. Seismic waveform correlation analysis at multiple stations reveals that these lower-crustal, brittle-failure swarms consist of tens to hundreds of repeated similar events and also serves to identify many events not included in the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) catalog. In the case of the 2009 episode, an evolution in waveform is clearly discernible over the sequence, suggesting a corresponding evolution in source location or mechanism. Work is ongoing to take advantage of the waveform similarity to estimate precise hypocentral locations of these events in order to distinguish between these possibilities.We suggest that the brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km are occurring within the more mafic mid- to lower-crust, which can remain in the brittle domain to temperatures as high as ~700o C. Above these deep events are two distinct shallower zones of seismicity. The mid-crustal long-period earthquakes between 10 and 20 km are presumably occurring within the silicic crust, but below the rheological transition from brittle to plastic behavior, expected to occur at temperatures of ~350 to 400o C. Above this transition are shallow brittle-failure earthquakes, in the upper 8 kilometers of the silicic crust. These lower crustal brittle-failure earthquakes are similar in depth and tectonic setting to those that occurred beneath the Sierra Nevada crest in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe in late 2003, which Smith et al. (Science, 2004) concluded were associated with a magmatic intrusion in the lower crust. The Mammoth sequences, however, are much shorter in duration (1-2 days compared with several months) and have no detectable accompanying geodetic signal. Thus, there is no clear evidence for a significant intrusion associated with these deep swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain.

  18. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Building Structures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, Mehmet

    1998-01-01

    Several approaches are used to assess the performance of the built environment following an earthquake -- preliminary damage surveys conducted by professionals, detailed studies of individual structures, and statistical analyses of groups of structures. Reports of damage that are issued by many organizations immediately following an earthquake play a key role in directing subsequent detailed investigations. Detailed studies of individual structures and statistical analyses of groups of structures may be motivated by particularly good or bad performance during an earthquake. Beyond this, practicing engineers typically perform stress analyses to assess the performance of a particular structure to vibrational levels experienced during an earthquake. The levels may be determined from recorded or estimated ground motions; actual levels usually differ from design levels. If a structure has seismic instrumentation to record response data, the estimated and recorded response and behavior of the structure can be compared.

  19. A possible geodetic anomaly observed prior to the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Lisowski, M.; Prescott, W.H.; Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    1990-07-01

    Monthly measurements since mid-1981 of distance from a geodetic station located 11 km from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake (M{sub s} = 7.1; October 17, 1989) to three stations 30 to 40 km distant provides an unusually complete record of deformation in the epicentral region in the years prior to an earthquake. Roughly 1.3 years before the earthquake, at about the time of the first magnitude-5 foreshock, the rate of change in line length for two of the lines appears to change; the rate for the third line does not change. Other similar, though smaller, changes in rate are apparent in the eight-year record. Thus, there is marginal evidence for a change in deformation rate about one year before the Loma Prieta earthquake, but that change need not be a precursor.

  20. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7. 3 Landers, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, D.P.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Simpson, R.W.; Walter, S. ); Arabaz, W.J.; Nava, S.; Pechmann, J.C.; Smith, R.B. ); Beroza, G. ); Brumbaugh, D. ); Brune, J.N.; dePolo, D. ); Castro, R.; Munguia, L.; Vidal, A.; Wong, V. ); Davis, S. ); Gomberg, J.; Harmsen, S. ); House, L. ); Jackson, S.M. ); Jones, L. ); Keller, R. ); Malone, S. ); Sanford, A. (New Mexico Inst. of Mini

    1993-06-11

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1,250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma). 26 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.; Arabaz, W.J.; Beroza, G.; Brumbaugh, D.; Brune, J.N.; Castro, R.; Davis, S.; Depolo, D.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Gomberg, J.; Harmsen, S.; House, L.; Jackson, S.M.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Jones, L.; Keller, Rebecca Hylton; Malone, S.; Munguia, L.; Nava, S.; Pechmann, J.C.; Sanford, A.; Simpson, R.W.; Smith, R.B.; Stark, M.; Stickney, M.; Vidal, A.; Walter, S.; Wong, V.; Zollweg, J.

    1993-01-01

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

  2. Birth of a fault: Connecting the Kern County and Walker Pass, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bawden, G.W.; Michael, A.J.; Kellogg, L.H.

    1999-01-01

    A band of seismicity transects the southern Sierra Nevada range between the northeastern end of the site of the 1952 MW (moment magnitude) 7.3 Kern County earthquake and the site of the 1946 MW 6.1 Walker Pass earthquake. Relocated earthquakes in this band, which lacks a surface expression, better delineate the northeast-trending seismic lineament and resolve complex structure near the Walker Pass mainshock. Left-lateral earthquake focal planes are rotated counterclockwise from the strike of the seismic lineament, consistent with slip on shear fractures such as those observed in the early stages of fault development in laboratory experiments. We interpret this seismic lineament as a previously unrecognized, incipient, currently blind, strike-slip fault, a unique example of a newly forming structure.

  3. Active Crustal Deformation in the Area of San Carlos, Baja California Sur, Mexico as Shown by Data of Local Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munguía, Luis; González-Escobar, Mario; Navarro, Miguel; Valdez, Tito; Mayer, Sergio; Aguirre, Alfredo; Wong, Victor; Luna, Manuel

    2015-12-01

    We analyzed earthquakes of sequences that occurred at different times near San Carlos, a town of approximately 5000 inhabitants. The seismic sequences happened during March-April 1989, October 2000-June 2001, and 5-15 February 2004 at about 200 km west of the Pacific-North America plate boundary. The strong shaking from initial earthquakes of the first two sequences prompted the installation of temporary seismic stations in the area. With data recorded by these stations, we found an earthquake distribution that is consistent with the northwest segment of the Santa Margarita fault. Both the focal depth, that seemed to increase in E-NE direction, and a composite fault-plane solution, obtained from polarity data of the small earthquakes, were also consistent with the main characteristics of that fault. We also found that our normal-faulting mechanism (east side down) was quite similar to centroid moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w 5.4 and 5.3 that occurred in the area in February 2004. It is likely, then, that these larger earthquakes also occurred along the Santa Margarita Fault. To get some insight into the regional stress pattern, we compared the above mechanisms with mechanisms reported for other earthquakes of the Pacific margin of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California regions. We observed that focal mechanisms of the two regions have T axes of stress that plunge sub horizontally in E-NE average direction. The corresponding P axes have N-NW average trend, but for the Pacific earthquakes these axes plunge at angles that are ~35° larger than those for the Gulf earthquakes. These more vertically inclined P axes of compressive stress mean substantial oblique fault motions. The mixture of oblique and strike-slip components of fault motions, as the focal mechanisms show, confirms a transtensional stress regime for the region. Before this research, we knew little about the seismicity and styles of faulting in the area. Now we know that earthquakes can occur along the coastline of Baja California, at 60 km east of the Tosco-Abreojos fault system. We conclude that transtensional deformation is taking place across a wide zone of the Pacific margin of Baja California. Finally, we point out that although the studied earthquakes were of small magnitude, they might serve as a reminder of the danger that future larger events pose to San Carlos.

  4. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Lifelines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, Anshel J., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    To the general public who had their televisions tuned to watch the World Series, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a lifelines earthquake. It was the images seen around the world of the collapsed Cypress Street viaduct, with the frantic and heroic efforts to pull survivors from the structure that was billowing smoke; the collapsed section of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and subsequent home video of a car plunging off the open span; and the spectacular fire in the Marina District of San Francisco fed by a broken gasline. To many of the residents of the San Francisco Bay region, the relation of lifelines to the earthquake was characterized by sitting in the dark because of power outage, the inability to make telephone calls because of network congestion, and the slow and snarled traffic. Had the public been aware of the actions of the engineers and tradespeople working for the utilities and other lifeline organizations on the emergency response and restoration of lifelines, the lifeline characteristics of this earthquake would have been even more significant. Unobserved by the public were the warlike devastation in several electrical-power substations, the 13 miles of gas-distribution lines that had to be replaced in several communities, and the more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections that had to be excavated and repaired. Like the 1971 San Fernando, Calif., earthquake, which was a seminal event for activity to improve the earthquake performance of lifelines, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that the tasks of preparing lifelines in 'earthquake country' were incomplete-indeed, new lessons had to be learned.

  5. Paleoseismic evidence of clustered earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Lisa B.; Sieh, Kerry

    1994-04-01

    Exposures we have excavated across the San Andreas fault contradict the hypothesis that part of the fault in the Carrizo Plain is unusually strong and experiences relatively infrequent rupture. The exposures record evidence of at least seven surface-rupturing earthquakes which have been approximately dated by accelerated mass spectrometry radiocarbon analysis of detrital charcoal and buried in-situ plants. Five large earthquakes have occurred since 1218 A.D. The most recent earthquake, event A, was the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, which we have associated with 6.6-10 m of dextral slip along the main fault trace. The penultimate earthquake, event B, most likely occurred within the period A.D. 1405-1510. Slip from either events B and C combined or from event B alone, totals 7-11 m. Three earthquakes, events C, D, and E, occurred in a temporal cluster prior to event B and after approximately A.D. 1218. The average recurrence interval within this cluster is 73-116 years, depending on assumptions. Events F and G occurred after 200 years B.C. A depositional hiatus between events E and F may hide evidence of additional earthquakes. Events B and D within the Carrizo cluster of A.D. 1218-1510 may correlate with events T (A.D. 1329-1363) and V (A.D. 1465-1495) at Pallett Creek on the Mojave 'segment' of the fault. This suggests two fault ruptures similar in length to that of 1857. Events C and E apparently did not rupture the Mojave section, which suggests that the Carrizo segment has ruptured independently or in combination with segments to the north. Irregular repeat times of large earthquakes suggest a pattern of clustered events at the end of seismic 'supercycles.'

  6. Borehole strainmeter measurements spanning the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa Earthquake, California: The effect from instrument calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langbein, John

    2015-10-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source, and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts per billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets of tidally calibrated strains differ by up to 130 ppb from predictions based on a moment tensor derived from seismic data. The large misfit can be attributed to a combination of poor instrument calibration and better modeling of the strain field from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain tides predicted by a model. Although the borehole strainmeter accurately measures the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 ppb to 18 ppb. This suggests that relying on tidal models to calibrate borehole strainmeters significantly reduces their accuracy.

  7. Borehole strainmeter measurements spanning the 2014, Mw6.0 South Napa Earthquake, California: The effect from instrument calibration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, John O.

    2015-01-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts-per-billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets of tidally calibrated strains differ by up to 130 ppb from predictions based on a moment tensor derived from seismic data. The large misfit can be attributed to a combination of poor instrument calibration and better modeling of the strain fit from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in-situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain-tides predicted by a model. Although the borehole strainmeter accurately measure the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point-source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 ppb to 18 ppb. This suggests that relying on tidal models to calibrate borehole strainmeters significantly reduces their accuracy.

  8. Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2007-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

  9. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Keilis-Borok, V.I. ); Smith, S.W. )

    1990-11-10

    Relative seismic quiescence within a region which has already been diagnosed as having entered a Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake can be used to refine the locality in which the earthquake may be expected to occur. A simple algorithm with parameters fitted from the data in Northern California preceding the 1980 magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore from Eureka depicts relative quiescence within the region of a TIP. The procedure was tested, without readaptation of parameter, on 17 other strong earthquake occurrences in North America, Japan, and Eurasia, most of which were in regions for which a TIP had been previously diagnosed. The localizing algorithm successfully outlined a region within which the subsequent earthquake occurred for 16 of these 17 strong earthquakes. The area of prediction in each case was reduced significantly, ranging between 7% and 25% of the total area covered by the TIP.

  10. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, Paul A., (Edited By)

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  11. Earthquake location data for the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California: 1984 through 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Harmsen, S.C.; Rogers, A.M.

    1987-01-01

    This report presents data in map and table form for earthquake parameters such as hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes for earthquakes located by the southern Great Basin Seismic network for the time period January 1, 1984, through December 31, 1986. These maps show concentrations of earthquakes in regions previously noted to be seismically active, including the Pahranagat Shear Zone, Pahroc Mountains, southern Nevada Test Site, Timber Mountain, Black Mountain, Gold Mountain, Montezuma Range, and Grapevine Mountains. A concentration of earthquake activity in the Reveille Range was observed in 1986, in a previously inactive area. The northern Nevada Test Site had fewer earthquakes than a comparable area of the southern Nevada Test Site, indicating that the low-yield nuclear testing program is not currently triggering significant numbers of aftershocks. Eight microearthquakes occurred at Yucca Mountain during the 1984-1986 monitoring period. Depths of focus for well-located earthquakes continue to indicate a bimodal distribution, with peaks at 1 to 2 and 8 to 9 km below sea-level and a local minimum at 4 to 5 km. Focal mechanisms range from strike slip to normal slip. No dependence of slip mode on depth or magnitude is evident. 8 refs., 46 figs., 5 tabs.

  12. Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Hainzl, S.

    2011-08-01

    Geothermal energy is becoming an important clean energy source, however, the stimulation of a reservoir for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is associated with seismic risk due to induced seismicity. Seismicity occurring due to the water injection at depth have to be well recorded and monitored. To mitigate the seismic risk of a damaging event, an appropriate alarm system needs to be in place for each individual experiment. In recent experiments, the so-called traffic-light alarm system, based on public response, local magnitude and peak ground velocity, was used. We aim to improve the pre-defined alarm system by introducing a probability-based approach; we retrospectively model the ongoing seismicity in real time with multiple statistical forecast models and then translate the forecast to seismic hazard in terms of probabilities of exceeding a ground motion intensity level. One class of models accounts for the water injection rate, the main parameter that can be controlled by the operators during an experiment. By translating the models into time-varying probabilities of exceeding various intensity levels, we provide tools which are well understood by the decision makers and can be used to determine thresholds non-exceedance during a reservoir stimulation; this, however, remains an entrepreneurial or political decision of the responsible project coordinators. We introduce forecast models based on the data set of an EGS experiment in the city of Basel. Between 2006 December 2 and 8, approximately 11 500 m3 of water was injected into a 5-km-deep well at high pressures. A six-sensor borehole array, was installed by the company Geothermal Explorers Limited (GEL) at depths between 300 and 2700 m around the well to monitor the induced seismicity. The network recorded approximately 11 200 events during the injection phase, more than 3500 of which were located. With the traffic-light system, actions where implemented after an ML 2.7 event, the water injection was reduced and then stopped after another ML 2.5 event. A few hours later, an earthquake with ML 3.4, felt within the city, occurred, which led to bleed-off of the well. A risk study was later issued with the outcome that the experiment could not be resumed. We analyse the statistical features of the sequence and show that the sequence is well modelled with the Omori-Utsu law following the termination of water injection. Based on this model, the sequence will last 31+29/-14 years to reach the background level. We introduce statistical models based on Reasenberg and Jones and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, commonly used to model aftershock sequences. We compare and test different model setups to simulate the sequences, varying the number of fixed and free parameters. For one class of the ETAS models, we account for the flow rate at the injection borehole. We test the models against the observed data with standard likelihood tests and find the ETAS model accounting for the on flow rate to perform best. Such a model may in future serve as a valuable tool for designing probabilistic alarm systems for EGS experiments.

  13. School Site Preparedness for the Safety of California's Children K-12. Official Report of the Northridge Earthquake Task Force on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Legislature, Sacramento. Senate Select Committee on the Northridge Earthquake.

    This report asserts that disaster preparedness at all school sites must become a major and immediate priority. Should a disaster equaling the magnitude of the Northridge earthquake occur, the current varying levels of site preparedness may not adequately protect California's children. The report describes why the state's children are not safe and

  14. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist concerns about tsunami hazard signs. Over the seventeen-year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 84 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 89 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 57 percent. In 2009, the RCTWG was recognized by the Western States Seismic Policy Council (WSSPC) with an award for innovation and in 2010, the RCTWG-sponsored class "Living on Shaky Ground" was awarded WSSPC's overall Award in Excellence. The RCTWG works closely with CGS and Cal EMA on a number of projects including tsunami mapping, evacuation zone planning, siren policy, tsunami safety for boaters, and public education messaging. Current projects include working with CGS to develop a "playbook" tsunami mapping product to illustrate the expected effects from a range of tsunami source events and assist local governments in focusing future response actions to reflect the range expected impacts from distant source events. Preparedness efforts paid off on March 11, 2011 when a tsunami warning was issued for the region and significant damage occurred in harbor regions of Del Norte County and Mendocino County. Full-scale evacuations were carried out in a coordinated manner and the majority of the commercial fishing fleet in Crescent City was able to exit the harbor before the tsunami arrived.

  15. Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones?-from the View of Slip Deficit-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikuta, R.; Mitsui, Y.; Ando, M.

    2014-12-01

    We studied inter-plate slip history for about 100 years using earthquake catalogs. On assumption that each earthquake has stick-slip patch centered in its centroid, we regard cumulative seismic slips around the centroid as representing the inter-plate dislocation. We evaluated the slips on the stick-slip patches of over-M5-class earthquakes prior to three recent mega-thrust earthquakes, the 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.2), the 2010 Chile (Mw8.8), and the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) around them. Comparing the cumulative seismic slips with the plate convergence, the slips before the mega-thrust events are significantly short in large area corresponding to the size of the mega-thrust events. We also researched cumulative seismic slips after other three mega-thrust earthquakes occurred in this 100 years, the 1952 Kamchatka (Mw9.0), the 1960 Chile (Mw9.5), the 1964 Alaska (Mw9.2). The cumulative slips have been significantly short in and around the focal area after their occurrence. The result should reflect persistency of the strong or/and large inter-plate coupled area capable of mega-thrust earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones to find that 21 regions including the focal area of above mega-thrust earthquakes show slip deficit over large area corresponding to the size of M9-class earthquakes. Considering that at least six M9-class earthquakes occurred in this 100 years and each recurrence interval should be 500-1000 years, it would not be surprised that from five to ten times of the already known regions (30 to 60 regions) are capable of M9 class earthquakes. The 21 regions as expected M9 class focal areas in our study is less than 5 to 10 times of the known 6, some of these regions may be divided into a few M9 class focal area because they extend to much larger area than typical M9 class focal area.

  16. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Marina District

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Rourke, Thomas D., (Edited By)

    1992-01-01

    During the earthquake, a total land area of about 4,300 km2 was shaken with seismic intensities that can cause significant damage to structures. The area of the Marina District of San Francisco is only 4.0 km2--less than 0.1 percent of the area most strongly affected by the earthquake--but its significance with respect to engineering, seismology, and planning far outstrips its proportion of shaken terrain and makes it a centerpiece for lessons learned from the earthquake. The Marina District provides perhaps the most comprehensive case history of seismic effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. The reports assembled in this chapter, which provide an account of these seismic effects, constitute a unique collection of studies on site, as well as infrastructure and societal, response that cover virtually all aspects of the earthquake, ranging from incoming ground waves to the outgoing airwaves used for emergency communication. The Marina District encompasses the area bounded by San Francisco Bay on the north, the Presidio on the west, and Lombard Street and Van Ness Avenue on the south and east, respectively. Nearly all of the earthquake damage in the Marina District, however, occurred within a considerably smaller area of about 0.75 km2, bounded by San Francisco Bay and Baker, Chestnut, and Buchanan Streets. At least five major aspects of earthquake response in the Marina District are covered by the reports in this chapter: (1) dynamic site response, (2) soil liquefaction, (3) lifeline performance, (4) building performance, and (5) emergency services.

  17. Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burford, R.O.

    1988-01-01

    Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for the past 5 years. Retardations with durations of 21 and 19 months also occurred at Shore Road before the 1974 and 1984 earthquakes of ML=5.2 and ML=6.2, respectively. Although creep retardation remains poorly understood, several possible explanations have been discussed previously. (1) Certain onsets of apparent creep retardation may be explained as abrupt terminations of afterslip generated from previous moderate-mainshock sequences. (2) Retardations may be related to significant decreases in the rate of seismic and/or aseismic slip occurring within or beneath the underlying seismogenic zone. Such decreases may be caused by changes in local conditions related to growth of asperities, strain hardening, or dilatancy, or perhaps by passage of stress-waves or other fluctuations in driving stresses. (3) Finally, creep rates may be lowered (or increased) by stresses imposed on the fault by seismic or aseismic slip on neighboring faults. In addition to causing creep-rate increases or retardations, such fault interactions occasionally may trigger earthquakes. Regardless of the actual mechanisms involved and the current lack of understanding of creep retardation, it appears that shallow fault creep is sensitive to local and regional effects that promote or accompany intermediate-term preparation stages leading to moderate earthquakes. A strategy for more complete monitoring of fault creep, wherever it is known to occur, therefore should be assigned a higher priority in our continuing efforts to test various hypotheses concerning the mechanical relations between seismic and aseismic slip. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

  18. The dependence of peak horizontal acceleration on magnitude, distance, and site effects for small-magnitude earthquakes in California and eastern North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, K.W.

    1989-01-01

    One-hundred and ninety free-field accelerograms recorded on deep soil (>10 m deep) were used to study the near-source scaling characteristics of peak horizontal acceleration for 91 earthquakes (2.5 ??? ML ??? 5.0) located primarily in California. An analysis of residuals based on an additional 171 near-source accelerograms from 75 earthquakes indicated that accelerograms recorded in building basements sited on deep soil have 30 per cent lower acclerations, and that free-field accelerograms recorded on shallow soil (???10 m deep) have 82 per cent higher accelerations than free-field accelerograms recorded on deep soil. An analysis of residuals based on 27 selected strong-motion recordings from 19 earthquakes in Eastern North America indicated that near-source accelerations associated with frequencies less than about 25 Hz are consistent with predictions based on attenuation relationships derived from California. -from Author

  19. Multiscale Earthquake Simulator, Using Rate and State Friction and Fast Multipoles, Focused on Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tullis, T. E.; Beeler, N. M.

    2008-12-01

    We developed a multiscale grid and corresponding distribution of fault constitutive parameters to simulate earthquake sequences on the San Andreas over a wide range of scales at Parkfield, CA. The distributions of elements and constitutive parameters are based on the spatial distribution of microseismicity at Parkfield, including earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1 to magnitude 6. Our intent is to understand the interplay between earthquakes of a wide range of magnitudes, in particular what conditions allow small earthquakes to grow into larger ones, whether detectable accelerating seismicity presages larger events, and to simulate the target earthquakes of the SAFOD drilling experiment?. Because a detailed time-space history of microseismicity and larger events at Parkfield exists, it is possible to make comparisons between the properties and history of simulated events and actual events. The smallest elements in the multiscale grid are 7 m in dimension, values small enough to represent a continuum with laboratory values of Dc and the other constitutive parameters. The multiscale grid is used so that only the areas having experienced earthquakes are represented by the smallest elements. The largest elements are used in areas where microearthquakes do not occur, and these are 200 m in dimension. The total model area is 47 km long by 15 km deep and is based on the observed distribution of 4966 microearthquakes and has 1,464,433 elements. Running the total model for sufficient time steps, is beyond the range of existing computers. Consequently we are starting with subsets having a range of sizes and numbers of actual earthquakes, to gain experience with the behavior of the simulations. Note that although the distribution of constitutive parameters and of the smallest elements may restrict the simulated earthquakes in the model to be spatially similar to actual earthquakes at Parkfield, the time histories of the simulated earthquakes will occur spontaneously. Although this is a work in progress at an early stage, several results are notable. Some previously recognized issues relevant to computational efficiency worthy of emphasis include: 1) because, for fixed constitutive parameters a and b, the degree of instability increases as the ratio of normal stress to Dc, if effective normal stress actually increases with depth as we assume, then either Dc needs to increase with depth or the grid size needs to decrease with depth in order to be able to represent the behavior equally at all depths, and 2) with the same values of constitutive parameters, simulations using the slowness law for state evolution proceed farther in simulated time per computational time step than with the slip law, but the slip velocities are smaller with the slowness law. Although lab data suggest the slip law better represents behavior above slip velocities of about 0.01 microns/s, the slowness law may proxy for actual behavior during earthquakes better than the slip law because it involves larger fracture energy that during earthquakes may partially result from off-fault damage. Preliminary scientific observations include 1) dynamic events that are internally complex and interact with other events, and 2) accelerating seismicity generally occurs prior to larger events, suggesting that it might allow short-term earthquake prediction.

  20. Processed seismic motion records from earthquakes (1982--1993): Recorded at Scotty`s Castle, California

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-10-01

    As part of the contract with the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume) maintained a network of seismographs to monitor the ground motion generated by the underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismographs were located in the communities surrounding the NTS and the Las Vegas valley. When these seismographs were not used for monitoring the UNE generated motions, a limited number of seismographs were maintained for monitoring motion generated by other than UNEs (e.g. motion generated by earthquakes, wind, blast). Scotty`s Castle was one of the selected earthquake monitoring station. During the period from 1982 through 1993, numerous earthquakes with varied in magnitudes and distances were recorded at Scotty`s Castle. The records from 24 earthquakes were processed and included in this report. Tables 1 and 2 lists the processed earthquakes in chronological order and in the order of epicentral distances, respectively. Figure 1 shows these epicenters and magnitudes. Due to the potential benefit of these data for the scientific community, DOE/NV and the National Park Service authorize the release of these records.

  1. Processed seismic motion records from earthquakes, 1982-1993: Recorded at Scotty's Castle, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lum, P. K.; Honda, K. K.

    1993-10-01

    As part of the contract with the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume) maintained a network of seismographs to monitor the ground motion generated by the underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismographs were located in the communities surrounding the NTS and the Las Vegas valley. When these seismographs were not used for monitoring the UNE generated motions, a limited number of seismographs were maintained for monitoring motion generated by other than UNE's (e.g. motion generated by earthquakes, wind, blast). Scotty's Castle was one of the selected earthquake monitoring stations. During the period from 1982 through 1993, numerous earthquakes which varied in magnitudes and distances were recorded at Scotty's Castle. The records from 24 earthquakes were processed and included in this report. The processed earthquakes are listed in chronological order and in the order of epicentral distances, respectively. These epicenters and magnitudes are shown. Due to the potential benefit of these data for the scientific community, DOE/NV and the National Park Service authorize the release of these records.

  2. Response of Long Valley Caldera to the Mw = 7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, David P.; Johnston, Malcolm J. S.; Langbein, John O.; Bilham, Roger

    1995-07-01

    Of the many sites in the western United States responding to the June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake (Mw = 7.3) with remotely triggered seismicity, only Long Valley caldera is monitored by both seismic and continuous deformation networks. A transient strain pulse and surge in seismicity recorded by these networks began within tens of seconds following arrival of the shear pulse from Landers. The cumulative strain and number of triggered earthquakes followed the same exponentially decaying growth rate (time constant 1.8 days) during the first 6 days following Landers. The strain transient, which was recorded on a borehole dilatometer at the west margin of the caldera and a long-base tiltmeter 20 km to the east, peaked on the sixth day at ≈0.25 ppm and gradually decayed over the next 15-20 days. The absence of a clear strain signal exceeding 0.4 ppm in data from the two-color geodimeter deformation lines, which span the central section of the caldera, indicates that the strain transient cannot be due solely to pressure changes in the concentrated pressure source 7 km beneath the central part of the caldera that accounts for most of the uplift of the resurgent dome since 1980. The triggered seismicity occupied the entire seismogenic volume beneath the caldera. The focal mechanisms, the frequency-magnitude distribution, and the spatial distribution of the triggered earthquakes are typical of other swarms in Long Valley caldera. The cumulative seismic moment of the triggered earthquakes through the first 2 weeks after the Landers earthquake corresponds to a single M = 3.8 earthquake, which is too small by nearly 2 orders of magnitude to account for the 0.25-ppm peak amplitude of the observed strain transients. Evidently, the strain transient represents the dominant response mode, which precludes direct triggering of local earthquakes by the large dynamic stresses from Landers as the dominant process. Conditionally viable models for the triggering process beneath the caldera include (1) the transient pressurization of magma bodies beneath the resurgent dome and Mammoth Mountain by the advective overpressure of rising bubbles, (2) a surge in fluid pressure within the seismogenic zone due to upward cascading failure of isolated compartments containing superhydrostatic pore fluids, (3) relaxation (fluidization) of a partially crystallized magma body or dike intrusion in the deep crustal roots of Long Valley magmatic system, or (4) aseismic slip on midcrustal faults. Either the deep, relaxing-magma body or lower crustal dike intrusion satisfy all the strain observations with a single deformation source. The latter model admits the possibility that large, regional earthquakes can trigger the episodic recharge of the deep roots of crustal magmatic systems.

  3. Comment on "Revisiting the 1872 owens valley, California, earthquake" by Susan E. Hough and Kate Hutton

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.

    2009-01-01

    Bakun (2009) argues that the conclusions of Hough and Hutton (2008) are wrong because the study failed to take into account the Sierra Nevada attenuation model of Bakun (2006). In particular, Bakun (2009) argues that propagation effects can explain the relatively high intensities generated by the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake. Using an intensity attenuation model that attempts to account for attenuation through the Sierra Nevada, Bakun (2006) infers the magnitude estimate (Mw 7.47.5) that is currently accepted by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC).

  4. Acceleration and volumetric strain generated by the Parkfield 2004 earthquake on the GEOS strong-motion array near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, Rodger D.; Johnston, Malcolm J.S.; Dietel, Christopher; Glassmoyer, Gary; Myren, Doug; Stephens, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    An integrated array of 11 General Earthquake Observation System (GEOS) stations installed near Parkfield, CA provided on scale broad-band, wide-dynamic measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain of the Parkfield earthquake (M 6.0) of September 28, 2004. Three component measurements of acceleration were obtained at each of the stations. Measurements of collocated acceleration and volumetric strain were obtained at four of the stations. Measurements of velocity at most sites were on scale only for the initial P-wave arrival. When considered in the context of the extensive set of strong-motion recordings obtained on more than 40 analog stations by the California Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (Shakal, et al., 2004 http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc) and those on the dense array of Spudich, et al, (1988), these recordings provide an unprecedented document of the nature of the near source strong motion generated by a M 6.0 earthquake. The data set reported herein provides the most extensive set of near field broad band wide dynamic range measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain for an earthquake as large as M 6 of which the authors are aware. As a result considerable interest has been expressed in these data. This report is intended to describe the data and facilitate its use to resolve a number of scientific and engineering questions concerning earthquake rupture processes and resultant near field motions and strains. This report provides a description of the array, its scientific objectives and the strong-motion recordings obtained of the main shock. The report provides copies of the uncorrected and corrected data. Copies of the inferred velocities, displacements, and Psuedo velocity response spectra are provided. Digital versions of these recordings are accessible with information available through the internet at several locations: the National Strong-Motion Program web site (http://agram.wr.usgs.gov/), the COSMOS Virtual Data Center Web site (http://www.cosmos-eq.org), and the CISN Engineering and Berkeley data centers (http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc). They are also accessible together with recordings on the GEOS Strong-motion Array near Parkfield, CA since its installation in 1987 through the USGS GEOS web site ( http://nsmp.wr.usgs.gov/GEOS).

  5. Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka'aki; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2015-07-01

    Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1-2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

  6. Source inversion of the 1988 Upland, California, earthquake: determination of a fault plane for a small event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.; Hartzell, S.

    1990-01-01

    We examined short-period P waves to investigate if waveform data could be used to determine which of two nodal planes was the actual fault plane for a small (ML 4,6) earthquake near Upland, California. The southwest trending fault plane consistently gave better fitting solutions than the southeast-trending plane. We determined a moment of 4.2 ?? 1022 dyne-cm. The rupture velocity, and thus the source area could not be well resolved, but if we assume a reasonable rupture velocity of 0.87 times the shear wave velocity, we obtain a source area of 0.97 km2 and a stress drop of 38 bars. -from Authors

  7. The 1989 earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain, California: an initial look at the 4 May through 30 September activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.

    1990-01-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a 50 000- to 200 000-yr-old cumulovolcano standing on the southwestern rim of Long Valley in eastern California. On 4 May 1989, two M=1 earthquakes beneath the south flank of the mountain marked the onset of a swarm that has continued for more than 6 months. In addition to its longevity, noteworthy aspects of this persistent swarm are described. These aspects of the swarm, together with its location along the southern extension of the youthful Mono-Inyo volcanic chain, which last erupted 500 to 600 yr ago, point to a magmatic source for the modest but persistent influx of strain energy into the crust beneath Mammoth Mountain. -from Authors

  8. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a mini?m of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional downtime. The direct exposure of port trade value totals over 1.2 billion, while associated business interruption losses in the California economy could more than triple that value. Other estimated damages include 1.8 billion of property damage and 85 million for highway and railroad repairs. In total, we have estimated repair and replacement costs of almost 3 billion to California marinas, coastal properties and the POLA/LB. These damages could cause $6 billion of business interruption losses in the California economy, but that could be reduced by 80-90% with the implementation of business continuity or resilience strategies. This scenario provides the basis for improving preparedness, mitigation, and continuity planning for tsunamis, which can reduce damage and economic impacts and enhance recovery efforts. Two positive outcomes have already resulted from the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Emergency managers in areas where the scenario inundation exceeds the State's maximum inundation zone have been notified and evacuation plans have been updated appropriately. The State has also worked with NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center to modify future message protocols to facilitate effective evacuations in California. While our specific results pertain to California, the lessons learned and our scenario approach can be applied to other regions.

  9. Continuous GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake (Mw 7.1)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnutt, K.W.; King, N.E.; Galetzka, J.E.; Stark, K.F.; Behr, J.A.; Aspiotes, A.; van, Wyk S.; Moffitt, R.; Dockter, S.; Wyatt, F.

    2002-01-01

    Rapid field deployment of a new type of continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) network and data from Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) stations that had recently begun operating in the area allow unique observations of the postseismic deformation associated with the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Innovative solutions in fieldcraft, devised for the 11 new GPS stations, provide high-quality observations with 1-year time histories on stable monuments at remote sites. We report on our results from processing the postseismic GPS data available from these sites, as well as 8 other SCIGN stations within 80 km of the event (a total of 19 sites). From these data, we analyze the temporal character and spatial pattern of the postseismic transients. Data from some sites display statistically significant time variation in their velocities. Although this is less certain, the spatial pattern of change in the postseismic velocity field also appears to have changed. The pattern now is similar to the pre-Landers (pre-1992) secular field, but laterally shifted and locally at twice the rate. We speculate that a 30 km ?? 50 km portion of crust (near Twentynine Palms), which was moving at nearly the North American plate rate (to within 3.5 mm/yr of that rate) prior to the 1992 Landers sequence, now is moving along with the crust to the west of it, as though it has been entrained in flow along with the Pacific Plate as a result of the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake sequence. The inboard axis of right-lateral shear deformation (at lower crustal to upper mantle depth) may have jumped 30 km farther into the continental crust at this fault junction that comprises the southern end of the eastern California shear zone.

  10. Late Holocene slip rate and recurrence of great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in northern California

    SciTech Connect

    Niemi, T.M. Earth Sciences Associates, Palo Alto, CA ); Hall, N.T. )

    1992-03-01

    The slip rate of the San Andreas fault 45 km north of San Francisco at Olema, California, is determined by matching offset segments of a buried late Holocene stream channel. Stream deposits from 1,800 {plus minus} 78 yr B.P. are offset 42.5 {plus minus} 3.5 m across the active (1906) fault trace for a minimum late Holocene slip rate of 24 {plus minus} 3 mm/yr. When local maximum coseismic displacements of 4.9 to 5.5 m from the 1906 earthquake are considered with this slip rate, the recurrence of 1906-type earthquakes on the North Coast segment of the San Andreas fault falls within the interval of 221 {plus minus} 40 yr. Both comparable coseismic slip in 1906 and similar late Holocene geologic slip rates at the Olema site and a site 145 km northwest at Point Arena (Prentice, 1989) suggest that the North Coast segment behaves as a coherent rupture unit.

  11. Site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and damage in Los Gatos, California, from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Carver, D.; Williams, R.A.

    2001-01-01

    Aftershock records of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used to calculate site response in the frequency band of 0.5-10 Hz at 24 locations in Los Gatos, California, on the edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Two different methods are used: spectral ratios relative to a reference site on rock and a source/site spectral inversion method. These two methods complement each other and give consistent results. Site amplification factors are compared with surficial geology, thickness of alluvium, shallow shear-wave velocity measurements, and ground deformation and structural damage resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. Higher values of site amplification are seen on Quaternary alluvium compared with older Miocene and Cretaceous units of Monterey and Franciscan Formation. However, other more detailed correlations with surficial geology are not evident. A complex pattern of alluvial sediment thickness, caused by crosscutting thrust faults, is interpreted as contributing to the variability in site response and the presence of spectral resonance peaks between 2 and 7 Hz at some sites. Within the range of our field measurements, there is a correlation between lower average shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m and 50% higher values of site amplification. An area of residential homes thrown from their foundations correlates with high site response. This damage may also have been aggravated by local ground deformation. Severe damage to commercial buildings in the business district, however, is attributed to poor masonry construction.

  12. Formation of left-lateral fractures within the Summit Ridge shear zone, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W. |

    1993-12-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is characterized by the lack of major, throughgoing, coseismic, right-lateral faulting along strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the epicentral area. Instead, throughout the Summit Ridge area there are zones of tension cracks and left-lateral fracture zones oriented about N45 deg W, that is, roughly parallel to the San Andreas fault in this area. The left-lateral fractures zones are enigmatic because their left-lateral slip is opposite to the right-lateral sense of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. We suggest that the enigmatic fractures can be understood if we assume that coesiesmic deformation was by right-lateral shear across a broad zone, about 0.5 km wide and 4 km long, beneath Summit Ridge. Contrary to most previous reports on the Loma Prieta earthquake, which assert that coseismic, right-lateral ground rupture was restricted to considerable (greater than 4 km) depths in the epicentral area, we find that nearly all the right-lateral offset is represented at the ground surface by the Summit Ridge shear zone.

  13. Seismicity and crustal structure studies of southern California: tectonic implications from improved earthquake locations

    SciTech Connect

    Corbett, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    The 5.1 M/sub L/ Santa Barbara earthquake of 13 August 1978 was located 3 km southeast of Santa Barbara at a focal depth of 12.7 km. The temporal-spatial development of the aftershock zone may indicate that the initial rupture plane was considerably smaller than that of the eventual aftershock zone. The aftershock hypocenters outline a nearly horizontal plane (dipping 15/sup 0/ or less) at 13-km depth and the preferred focal mechanism indicates north-over-south thrusting. To further test the decollement hypothesis, Caltech catalog locations were reviewed to determine the depth distribution of earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges. The seismogenic zone is thickest along the southern front of the Transverse Ranges and is thinnest in the southern Mojave Desert and at the east end of the Transverse Ranges. The seismicity of the western Transverse Ranges is typified by north-dipping planar structures and the eastern Transverse Ranges are typified by pervasive seismicity extending down to the floor of the seismogenic zone. Data from a large quarry explosion on Catalina Island were utilized to derive a 3-layer Continental Borderland velocity structure to improve the locations of the 1981 Santa Barbara Island earthquakes. The Santa Barbara Island earthquake (5.3 M/sub L/) occurred on September 4, 1981. Aftershocks exhibited a clear northwest-southeast alignment that coincides with the submarine escarpment of the Santa Cruz-Catalina fault and was consistent with focal mechanisms.

  14. Direct and indirect evidence for earthquakes; an example from the Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maloney, J. M.; Noble, P. J.; Driscoll, N. W.; Kent, G.; Schmauder, G. C.

    2012-12-01

    High-resolution seismic CHIRP data can image direct evidence of earthquakes (i.e., offset strata) beneath lakes and the ocean. Nevertheless, direct evidence often is not imaged due to conditions such as gas in the sediments, or steep basement topography. In these cases, indirect evidence for earthquakes (i.e., debris flows) may provide insight into the paleoseismic record. The four sub-basins of the tectonically active Lake Tahoe Basin provide an ideal opportunity to image direct evidence for earthquake deformation and compare it to indirect earthquake proxies. We present results from high-resolution seismic CHIRP surveys in Emerald Bay, Fallen Leaf Lake, and Cascade Lake to constrain the recurrence interval on the West Tahoe Dollar Point Fault (WTDPF), which was previously identified as potentially the most hazardous fault in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Recently collected CHIRP profiles beneath Fallen Leaf Lake image slide deposits that appear synchronous with slides in other sub-basins. The temporal correlation of slides between multiple basins suggests triggering by events on the WTDPF. If correct, we postulate a recurrence interval for the WTDPF of ~3-4 k.y., indicating that the WTDPF is near its seismic recurrence cycle. In addition, CHIRP data beneath Cascade Lake image strands of the WTDPF that offset the lakefloor as much as ~7 m. The Cascade Lake data combined with onshore LiDAR allowed us to map the geometry of the WTDPF continuously across the southern Lake Tahoe Basin and yielded an improved geohazard assessment.

  15. Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Y.; Wdowinski, S.; Fang, P.; Zhang, Jiahua; Williams, S.; Johnson, H.; Behr, J.; Genrich, J.; Dean, J.; Van Domselaar, M.; Agnew, D.; Wyatt, F.; Stark, K.; Oral, B.; Hudnut, K.; King, R.; Herring, T.; Dinardo, S.; Young, W.; Jackson, D.; Gurtner, W.

    1997-01-01

    The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in 1990 across the Pacific-North America plate boundary to continuously monitor crustal deformation. We describe the development of the array and the time series of daily positions estimated for its first 10 sites in the 19-month period between the June 28, 1992 (Mw=7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 (Mw=6.7), Northridge earthquakes. We compare displacement rates at four site locations with those reported by Feigl et al. [1993], which were derived from an independent set of Global Positioning System (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements collected over nearly a decade prior to the Landers earthquake. The velocity differences for three sites 65-100 km from the earthquake's epicenter are of order of 3-5 mm/yr and are systematically coupled with the corresponding directions of coseismic displacement. The fourth site, 300 km from the epicenter, shows no significant velocity difference. These observations suggest large-scale postseismic deformation with a relaxation time of at least 800 days. The statistical significance of our observations is complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the noise properties of the two data sets; two possible noise models fit the PGGA data equally well as described in the companion paper by Zhang et al. [this issue]; the pre-Landers data are too sparse and heterogeneous to derive a reliable noise model. Under a fractal white noise model for the PGGA data we find that the velocity differences for all three sites are statistically different at the 99% significance level. A white noise plus flicker noise model results in significance levels of only 94%, 43%, and 88%. Additional investigations of the pre-Landers data, and analysis of longer spans of PGGA data, could have an important effect on the significance of these results and will be addressed in future work. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional vvavespeed (V p) model for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquake sequences to provide increased model resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D model as our starting model, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 earthquakes and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal Vp features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high Vp body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5- to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAP to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (<5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this model to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 earthquakes from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 earthquakes from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 earthquakes. These earthquake locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity, confirming earlier observations (Waldhauser et al., 2004) that the seismicity pattern at Parkfield is long lived and persists through multiple cycles of mainshocks.

  17. Migrating swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    Brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust, where high pressures and temperatures would typically promote ductile deformation, are relatively rare but occasionally observed beneath active volcanic centers. When they occur, these earthquakes provide a unique opportunity to constrain volcanic processes in the lower crust, such as fluid injection and migration. Here, we examine recent brief earthquakes swarms occurring deep beneath Mammoth Mountain, located on the southwestern margin of Long Valley Caldera. Brief lower-crustal swarms were observed beneath Mammoth in 2006, 2008, and 2009. These brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 19 to 30 km are likely occurring within the more mafic mid- to lower crust, which can remain in the brittle domain to temperatures as high as ~700 degrees C. Above these deep events are two distinct shallower zones of seismicity. Mid-crustal, long-period earthquakes between 10 and 19 km are presumably occurring within the silicic crust, but below the rheological transition from brittle to plastic behavior, which is expected to occur at temperatures of ~350 to 400 degrees C. Above this transition shallow, brittle-failure earthquakes occur in the upper 8 kilometers of the silicic crust. We focus primarily on a deep swarm that occurred September 29-30, 2009, which is the best recorded of the recent lower-crustal swarms. To maximally illuminate the spatial-temporal progression of seismicity, we supplement the earthquake catalog by identifying additional small events with similar waveforms in the continuous data, achieving up to a 10-fold increase in the number of locatable events. We then relocate all events, using cross-correlation and a double-difference algorithm. We find that the 2009 swarm exhibits systematically decelerating upward migration, with hypocenters shallowing from 21 to 19 km depth over approximately 12 hours. We also observe substantial diversity in the pattern of P-wave first motions, where events with very similar hypocenters and origin times exhibit nearly opposite patterns of compressional and dilational first motions at network seismometers. These lower-crustal, brittle-failure earthquakes are similar in many respects to those that occurred beneath the Sierra Nevada crest in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe in late 2003, which Smith et al. (Science, 2004) concluded were associated with a magmatic intrusion into the lower crust. The 2009 Mammoth sequence, however, is much shorter in duration (1-2 days compared with several months), faster migrating, and has no detectible accompanying geodetic signal. This suggests that the events may be triggered by upward diffusion of a lower viscosity fluid. CO2 is a likely candidate, given its abundant release in the area at the surface. Thus our preferred hypothesis is that this earthquake swarm is a symptom of ascending high-pressure CO2, perhaps reflecting slip induced on pre-existing fractures by reducing the effective normal stress. Indeed, the concentration of earthquakes with similar epicenters at a wide range of depths beneath Mammoth Mountain suggests that this may be a preferred pathway for CO2, and occasionally melt, to travel upward through the crust.

  18. Displacement Patterns of Cemetery Monuments in Ferndale, CA, During the MW 6.5 Offshore Northern California Earthquake of January 10, 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    French, K. S.; Cashman, S. M.; Structural Geology Class Spring 2010

    2010-12-01

    Displaced and toppled monuments in a cemetery are an effective means of assessing local ground motion during an earthquake. The MW 6.5 Offshore Northern California earthquake of January 10, 2010, was felt throughout northwestern California and caused moderate damage in coastal communities between Petrolia and Eureka. The earthquake was generated by left-lateral strike slip on a NE-trending fault within the subducting Gorda plate. Peak horizontal ground accelerations of -0.440g (E) and 0.279g (N) and vertical ground acceleration of -0.122g (up) were recorded in Ferndale, CA, on the North American plate 37km east southeast of the epicenter. We measured displaced and toppled monuments in the Ferndale cemetery as a means of assessing ground motion during the January 10, 2010 Offshore Northern California earthquake. The cemetery occupies a hillside that slopes gently to the northwest, and a dormant landslide underlies the cemetery. Approximately 30% of the monuments were displaced during the earthquake. Affects included toppled columns and urns; headstones, columns and large tomb covers that slid and rotated and relative to monument bases; tilted retaining walls and headstones; and liquefaction-related settling (or, less commonly, uplift) of monuments. We measured translation and rotation of 79 monuments displaced from their bases during the earthquake. Toppled monuments do not display a preferred orientation. Seven of the 18 toppled monuments fell to the southeast, but toppling occurred in all directions. For monuments that were displaced but not toppled, 1-10 cm of northwestward translation and 3-8 of clockwise rotation were most common; however, virtually all directions of translation and both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations and were recorded. Damage was not evenly distributed geographically. In general, damage was concentrated in the northern, topographically lower, part of the cemetery. Counterclockwise rotation of monuments occurred mainly along the northeastern margin of the cemetery. Twelve of the measured monuments consist of three of more segments that rotated in different directions and/or slid different distances than adjacent segments. Our measurements therefore record the cumulative displacement of each monument segment, but many values are undoubtedly less than the maximum offset experienced during earthquake shaking. We infer that a combination of direct ground shaking from seismic waves, local liquefaction, and possibly earthquake-induced remobilization of the dormant landslide underlying the cemetery, all influenced displacement of monuments during the earthquake. One outcome of our data analysis will be insight on the patterns of movement that earthquakes produce in dormant landslide topography.

  19. Present-day loading rate of faults in southern California and northern Baja California, Mexico, and post-seismic deformation following the M7.2 April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake from GPS Geodesy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spinler, J. C.; Bennett, R. A.

    2012-12-01

    We use 142 GPS velocity estimates from the SCEC Crustal Motion Map 4 and 59 GPS velocity estimates from additional sites to model the crustal velocity field of southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico, prior to the 2010 April 4 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. The EMC earthquake is the largest event to occur along the southern San Andreas fault system in nearly two decades. In the year following the EMC earthquake, the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) constructed eight new continuous GPS sites in northern Baja California, Mexico. We used our velocity model, which represents the period before the EMC earthquake, to assess postseismic velocity changes at the new PBO sites. Time series from the new PBO sites, which were constructed 4-18 months following the earthquake do not exhibit obvious exponential or logarithmic decay, showing instead fairly secular trends through the period of our analysis (2010.8-2012.5). The weighted RMS misfit to secular rates, accounting for periodic site motions is typically around 1.7 mm/yr, indicating high positioning precision and fairly linear site motion. Results of our research include new fault slip rate estimates for the greater San Andreas fault system, including model faults representing the Cerro Prieto (39.00.1 mm/yr), Imperial (35.70.1 mm/yr), and southernmost San Andreas (24.70.1 mm/yr), generally consistent with previous geodetic studies within the region. Velocity changes at the new PBO sites associated with the EMC earthquake are in the range 1.70.3 to 9.22.6 mm/yr. The maximum rate difference is found in Mexicali Valley, close to the rupture. Rate changes decay systematically with distance from the EMC epicenter and velocity orientations exhibit a butterfly pattern as expected from a strike slip earthquake. Sites to the south and southwest of the Baja California shear zone are moving more rapidly to the northwest relative to their motions prior to the earthquake. Sites to the west of the Laguna Salada fault zone are moving more westerly. Sites to the east of the EMC rupture move more southerly than prior to the EMC earthquake. Continued monitoring of these velocity changes will allow us to differentiate between lower crustal and upper mantle relaxation processes.

  20. Faulting apparently related to the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and possible co-seismic origin of surface cracks in Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catchings, R.D.; Goldman, M.R.; Lee, W.H.K.; Rymer, M.J.; Ponti, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    Apparent southward-dipping, reverse-fault zones are imaged to depths of about 1.5 km beneath Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California. Based on their orientation and projection to the surface, we suggest that the imaged fault zones are extensions of the Oak Ridge fault. Geologic mapping by others and correlations with seismicity studies suggest that the Oak Ridge fault is the causative fault of the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake (Northridge fault). Our seismically imaged faults may be among several faults that collectively comprise the Northridge thrust fault system. Unusually strong shaking in Potrero Canyon during the Northridge earthquake may have resulted from focusing of seismic energy or co-seismic movement along existing, related shallow-depth faults. The strong shaking produced ground-surface cracks and sand blows distributed along the length of the canyon. Seismic reflection and refraction images show that shallow-depth faults may underlie some of the observed surface cracks. The relationship between observed surface cracks and imaged faults indicates that some of the surface cracks may have developed from nontectonic alluvial movement, but others may be fault related. Immediately beneath the surface cracks, P-wave velocities are unusually low (<400 m/sec), and there are velocity anomalies consistent with a seismic reflection image of shallow faulting to depths of at least 100 m. On the basis of velocity data, we suggest that unconsolidated soils (<800 m/sec) extend to depths of about 15 to 20 m beneath our datum (<25 m below ground surface). The underlying rocks range in velocity from about 1000 to 5000 m/sec in the upper 100 m. This study illustrates the utility of high-resolution seismic imaging in assessing local and regional seismic hazards.

  1. Long Return Periods for Earthquakes in San Gorgonio Pass and Implications for Large Ruptures of the San Andreas Fault in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yule, J.; McBurnett, P.; Ramzan, S.

    2011-12-01

    The largest discontinuity in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault occurs in southern California at San Gorgonio Pass. Here, San Andreas motion moves through a 20 km-wide compressive stepover on the dextral-oblique-slip thrust system known as the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. This thrust-dominated system is thought to rupture during very large San Andreas events that also involve strike-slip fault segments north and south of the Pass region. A wealth of paleoseismic data document that the San Andreas fault segments on either side of the Pass, in the San Bernardino/Mojave Desert and Coachella Valley regions, rupture on average every ~100 yrs and ~200 yrs, respectively. In contrast, we report here a notably longer return period for ruptures of the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. For example, features exposed in trenches at the Cabezon site reveal that the most recent earthquake occurred 600-700 yrs ago (this and other ages reported here are constrained by C-14 calibrated ages from charcoal). The rupture at Cabezon broke a 10 m-wide zone of east-west striking thrusts and produced a >2 m-high scarp. Slip during this event is estimated to be >4.5 m. Evidence for a penultimate event was not uncovered but presumably lies beneath ~1000 yr-old strata at the base of the trenches. In Millard Canyon, 5 km to the west of Cabezon, the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone splits into two splays. The northern splay is expressed by 2.5 ± 0.7 m and 5.0 ± 0.7 m scarps in alluvial terraces constrained to be ~1300 and ~2500 yrs old, respectively. The scarp on the younger, low terrace postdates terrace abandonment ~1300 yrs ago and probably correlates with the 600-700 yr-old event at Cabezon, though we cannot rule out that a different event produced the northern Millard scarp. Trenches excavated in the low terrace reveal growth folding and secondary faulting and clear evidence for a penultimate event ~1350-1450 yrs ago, during alluvial deposition prior to the abandonment of the low terrace. Subtle evidence for a third event is poorly constrained by age data to have occurred between 1600 and 2500 yrs ago. The southern splay at Millard Canyon forms a 1.5 ± 0.1 m scarp in an alluvial terrace that is inset into the lowest terrace at the northern Millard site, and therefore must be < ~1300 yrs old. Slip on this fault probably occurred during the most recent rupture in the Pass. In summary, we think that the most recent earthquake occurred 600-700 yrs ago and generated ~6 m of slip on the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. The evidence for two older earthquakes is less complete but suggests that they are similar in style and magnitude to the most recent event. The available data therefore suggest that the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone has produced three large (~6 m) events in the last ~2000 yrs, a return period of ~700 yrs assuming that the next rupture is imminent. We prefer a model whereby a majority of San Andreas fault ruptures end as they approach the Pass region from the north or the south (like the Wrightwood event of A.D. 1812 and possibly the Coachella Valley event of ~A.D. 1680). Relatively rare (once-per-millennia?), through-going San Andreas events break the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone and produce the region's largest earthquakes.

  2. The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauksson, E.; Jones, L.M.; Davis, T.L.; Hutton, L.K.; Brady, A.G.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.J.; Yerkes, R.F.; Williams, Pat; Reagor, G.; Stover, C.W.; Bent, A.L.; Shakal, A.K.; Etheredge, E.; Porcella, R.L.; Bufe, C.G.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Cranswick, E.

    1988-01-01

    The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, ML=5.9), which caused over $358-million damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter.

  3. Surface Displacement of the 17 May 1993 Eureka Valley, California, Earthquake Observed by SAR Interferometry.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, G; Rosen, P

    1995-06-01

    Satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry shows that the magnitude 6.1 Eureka Valley earthquake of 17 May 1993 produced an elongated subsidence basin oriented north-northwest, parallel to the trend defined by the aftershock distribution, whereas the source mechanism of the earthquake implies a north-northeast-striking normal fault. The +/-3-millimeter accuracy of the radar-observed displacement map over short spatial scales allowed identification of the main surface rupture associated with the event. These observations suggest that the rupture began at depth and propagated diagonally upward and southward on a west-dipping, north-northeast fault plane, reactivating the largest escarpment in the Saline Range. PMID:17778980

  4. The Cape Mendocino, California, earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the triple junction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppenheimer, D.; Beroza, G.; Carver, G.; Dengler, L.; Eaton, J.; Gee, L.; Gonzalez, F.; Jayko, A.; Li, W.H.; Lisowski, M.; Magee, M.; Marshall, G.; Murray, M.; McPherson, R.; Romanowicz, B.; Satake, K.; Simpson, R.; Somerville, P.; Stein, R.; Valentine, D.

    1993-01-01

    The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America-Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.

  5. Non-shear focal mechanisms of earthquakes at The Geysers, California and Hengill, Iceland, geothermal areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Several thousand earthquakes were recorded in each area. We report an initial investigation of the focal mechanisms based on P-wave polarities. Distortion by complicated three-dimensional crustal structure was minimized using tomographically derived three-dimensional crustal models. Events with explosive and implosive source mechanisms, suggesting cavity opening and collapse, have been tentatively identified at The Geysers. The new data show that some of these events do not fit the model of tensile cracking accompanied by isotropic pore pressure decreases that was suggested in earlier studies, but that they may instead involve combination of explosive and shear processes. However, the confirmation of earthquakes dominated by explosive components supports the model that the event are caused by crack opening induced by thermal contraction of the heat source.

  6. The 1987 whittier narrows earthquake in the los angeles metropolitan area, california.

    PubMed

    Hauksson, E; Jones, L M; Davis, T L; Hutton, L K; Williams, P; Bent, A L; Brady, A G; Reasenberg, P A; Michael, A J; Yerkes, R F; Etheredge, E; Porcella, R L; Johnston, M J; Reagor, G; Stover, C W; Bufe, C G; Cranswick, E; Shakal, A K

    1988-03-18

    The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, M(L) = 5.9), which caused over $358-million damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter. PMID:17769737

  7. The cape mendocino, california, earthquakes of april 1992: subduction at the triple junction.

    PubMed

    Oppenheimer, D; Eaton, J; Jayko, A; Lisowski, M; Marshall, G; Murray, M; Simpson, R; Stein, R; Beroza, G; Magee, M; Carver, G; Dengler, L; McPherson, R; Gee, L; Romanowicz, B; Gonzalez, F; Li, W H; Satake, K; Somerville, P; Valentine, D

    1993-07-23

    The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America-Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity. PMID:17770022

  8. Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquake horizons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scharer, K.M.; Weldon, R.J., II; Fumal, T.E.; Biasi, G.P.

    2007-01-01

    We present evidence of 11-14 earthquakes that occurred between 3000 and 1500 B.C. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. Earthquake evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called "event indicators." Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming earthquake and that the earthquake horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs>1). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as "probable" to "very likely" earthquakes; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as "possible" earthquakes. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an earthquake horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs>1 correlate best with the interpreted earthquake quality. Earthquake age distributions are determined from radio-carbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average recurrence interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality earthquakes is 111 (93-131) years and individual intervals are ??50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14-15 earthquake record between A.D. 500 and present, we find no evidence to suggest significant variations in the average recurrence rate at Wrightwood during the past 5000 years.

  9. Three dimensional images of geothermal systems: local earthquake P-wave velocity tomography at the Hengill and Krafla geothermal areas, Iceland, and The Geysers, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Prisk, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Evans, J.R.

    1993-01-01

    Local earthquake tomography - the use of earthquake signals to form a 3-dimensional structural image - is now a mature geophysical analysis method, particularly suited to the study of geothermal reservoirs, which are often seismically active and severely laterally inhomogeneous. Studies have been conducted of the Hengill (Iceland), Krafla (Iceland) and The Geysers (California) geothermal areas. All three systems are exploited for electricity and/or heat production, and all are highly seismically active. Tomographic studies of volumes a few km in dimension were conducted for each area using the method of Thurber (1983).

  10. Rupture process of the 4 April 2010 Baja California Earthquake estimated from high-rate GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Y.; Hashimoto, M.

    2010-12-01

    The 4 April 2010 El Mayor Earthquake (Mw7.2) occurred in Baja California, Mexico. Its source region is located close to the plate boundary and there are several active faults in its vicinity. In association with this earthquake, surface rupture appears. Rupture is considered to propagate from southeast to northwest. Some high rate GPSs are located close to the source fault. They are 56 stations with 5Hz sampling and 34 stations with 1Hz operated by UNAVCO. With these data, we did a precise point positioning analysis to detect temporal variations in displacement. The high-rate time series of coordinates of CGPS site are capable to deal with both dynamic and static displacements, but not suitable for the analysis with shorter period than its sampling period (usually 1sec). We used the GPS software GpsTools developed by Takasu and Kasai(2005). First, we estimated 1-Hz clock-biases of GPS satellites by using 1-Hz data of worldwide 70 stations from IGS. Next, with these estimated satellites clock, we did precise point positioning for GPS data during the earthquake. Comparing with average data for ten seconds before and after the earthquake, we recognized the maximum static displacement of 22cm at CRRS 99km from the epicenter which is near the Salton Sea. We suspect that this large displacement is attributed to its soil condition. We inverted displacement waveforms to compute a fault slip distribution with horizontal waveforms from several sites. We assumed a fault plate that is 100km long and 20km wide in the direction of N319W with a dip angle of 82 deg. We divide this fault plane into 80 subfaults with 5km*5km one. Green function was calculated with the Frequency-Wavenumber method (Zhu and Rivera, 2002) using the Hadley-Kanamori velocity model (Hadley and Kanamori, 1977). We calculated both dynamic and static displacement by this Green function with the duration and rise time of 6s and 1s, respectively. Rupture velocity was assumed to be 3.0km/s. The preliminary result shows that a normal fault component with a down warping of the eastern side is dominant in the southern part, while a right lateral with significant east down slip is prevailing in the northwestern part. Max fault slip is found to be 4m at northwest part. Acknowledgement: Wed like to thank UNAVCO for providing GPS data.

  11. Multi-sensor Integration of Space and Ground Observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies Associated with M6.0, August 24, 2014 Napa, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Tramutoli, Valerio; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Tiger; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Petrov, Leonid; Kafatos, Menas

    2015-04-01

    We integrate multiple space-born and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 worldwide. The latest M6.0 event of August 24, 2014 in South Napa, California generated pre-earthquake signatures during our outgoing tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance. We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California (and several other test areas) by using: a) data from the NPOES sensors recording OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the infrared; b) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); c) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA; d) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data; e) TIR (Thermal Infrared) data from geostationary satellite (GOES). On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field at the TOA over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014 the hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. TIR retrospective analysis showed significant (spatially extended and temporally persistent) sequences of TIR anomalies starting August 1st just in the future epicenter area and approximately in the same area affected by OLR anomalies in the following days. GPS/TEC retrospective analysis based on GIM and TGIM products show anomalies TEC variations 1-3 days, over region north form the Napa earthquake epicenter. The calculated index of atmospheric chemical potential based on the NASA numerical Assimilation weather model GEOS5 indicates for abnormal variations near the epicentral area days before the quake; Our real-time and post-event integration of several atmospheric parameters from satellite and ground observations during the M6.0 on 08.24.2014 in Napa California demonstrated the synergy of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake preparation process.

  12. Magmatic resurgence in Long Valley caldera, California: Possible cause of the 1980 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Clark, M.M.

    1982-01-01

    Changes in elevation between 1975 and October 1980 along a leveling line across the Long Valley caldera indicate a broad (half-width, 15 kilometers) uplift (maximum, 0.25 meter) centered on the old resurgent dome. This uplift is consistent with reinflation of a magma reservoir at a depth of about 10 kilometers. Stresses generated by this magmatic resurgence may have caused the sequence of four magnitude 6 earthquakes near Mammoth Lakes in May 1980. Copyright ?? 1982 AAAS.

  13. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Recovery, Mitigation, and Reconstruction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nigg, Joanne M., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    The papers in this chapter reflect the broad spectrum of issues that arise following a major damaging urban earthquake-the regional economic consequences, rehousing problems, reconstruction strategies and policies, and opportunities for mitigation before the next major seismic event. While some of these papers deal with structural or physical science topics, their significant social and policy implications make them relevant for improving our understanding of the processes and dynamics that take place during the recovery period.

  14. Magmatic resurgence in Long Valley Caldera, California: possible cause of the 1980 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Savage, J.C.; Clark, M.M.

    1982-08-06

    Changes in elevation between 1975 and October 1980 along a leveling line across the Long Valley caldera indicate a broad (half-width, 15 kilometers) uplift (maximum, 0.25 meter) centered on the old resurgent dome. This uplift is consistent with reinflation of a magma reservoir at a depth of about 10 kilometers. Stresses generated by this magmatic resurgence may have caused the sequence of four magnitude 6 earthquakes near Mammoth Lakes in May 1980.

  15. A century of oilfield operations and earthquakes in the greater Los Angeles Basin, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauksson, Egill; Goebel, Thomas; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    Most of the seismicity in the Los Angeles Basin (LA Basin) occurs at depth below the sediments and is caused by transpressional tectonics related to the big bend in the San Andreas fault. However, some of the seismicity could be associated with fluid extraction or injection in oil fields that have been in production for almost a century and cover ∼ 17% of the basin. In a recent study, first the influence of industry operations was evaluated by analyzing seismicity characteristics, including normalized seismicity rates, focal depths, and b-values, but no significant difference was found in seismicity characteristics inside and outside the oil fields. In addition, to identify possible temporal correlations, the seismicity and available monthly fluid extraction and injection volumes since 1977 were analyzed. Second, the production and deformation history of the Wilmington oil field were used to evaluate whether other oil fields are likely to experience similar surface deformation in the future. Third, the maximum earthquake magnitudes of events within the perimeters of the oil fields were analyzed to see whether they correlate with total net injected volumes, as suggested by previous studies. Similarly, maximum magnitudes were examined to see whether they exhibit an increase with net extraction volume. Overall, no obvious previously unidentified induced earthquakes were found, and the management of balanced production and injection of fluids appears to reduce the risk of induced-earthquake activity in the oil fields.

  16. Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, E.H.; Seligson, H.A.; Gupta, N.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Campbell, K.W.

    2005-01-01

    Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  17. Migrating swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelly, David R.; Hill, David P.

    2011-10-01

    Brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust, where high pressures and temperatures would typically promote ductile deformation, are relatively rare but occasionally observed beneath active volcanic centers. Where they occur, these earthquakes provide a rare opportunity to observe volcanic processes in the lower crust, such as fluid injection and migration, which may induce brittle faulting under these conditions. Here, we examine recent short-duration earthquake swarms deep beneath the southwestern margin of Long Valley Caldera, near Mammoth Mountain. We focus in particular on a swarm that occurred September 29-30, 2009. To maximally illuminate the spatial-temporal progression, we supplement catalog events by detecting additional small events with similar waveforms in the continuous data, achieving up to a 10-fold increase in the number of locatable events. We then relocate all events, using cross-correlation and a double-difference algorithm. We find that the 2009 swarm exhibits systematically decelerating upward migration, with hypocenters shallowing from 21 to 19 km depth over approximately 12 hours. This relatively high migration rate, combined with a modest maximum magnitude of 1.4 in this swarm, suggests the trigger might be ascending CO2 released from underlying magma.

  18. Migrating swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, D.R.; Hill, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust, where high pressures and temperatures would typically promote ductile deformation, are relatively rare but occasionally observed beneath active volcanic centers. Where they occur, these earthquakes provide a rare opportunity to observe volcanic processes in the lower crust, such as fluid injection and migration, which may induce brittle faulting under these conditions. Here, we examine recent short-duration earthquake swarms deep beneath the southwestern margin of Long Valley Caldera, near Mammoth Mountain. We focus in particular on a swarm that occurred September 29-30, 2009. To maximally illuminate the spatial-temporal progression, we supplement catalog events by detecting additional small events with similar waveforms in the continuous data, achieving up to a 10-fold increase in the number of locatable events. We then relocate all events, using cross-correlation and a double-difference algorithm. We find that the 2009 swarm exhibits systematically decelerating upward migration, with hypocenters shallowing from 21 to 19 km depth over approximately 12 hours. This relatively high migration rate, combined with a modest maximum magnitude of 1.4 in this swarm, suggests the trigger might be ascending CO2 released from underlying magma.

  19. Does Geothermal Energy Production Cause Earthquakes in the Geysers Region of Northern California?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, K.; Bailey, C.; Sotto, M.; Yu, M.; Cohen, M.

    2003-12-01

    The Geysers region is located in Sonoma County, several hours north of San Francisco. At this location, hot magma beneath the surface heats ground water and creates steam that is used to make electricity. Since 1997, 8 billion gallons of treated wastewater have been injected into the ground, where the water becomes hot and increases the amount of thermal energy that can be produced. Frequent micro-earthquakes (up to magnitude 4.5) occur in the region and seem to be related to the geothermal energy production. The region is mostly uninhabited, except for several small towns such as Anderson Springs, where people have been extremely concerned about potential damage to their property. The energy companies are planning to double the amount of wastewater injected into the ground and to increase their energy production. Geothermal energy is important because it is better for the environment than burning coal, oil, or gas. Air and water pollution, which have negative impacts on living things, are reduced compared to power plants that generate electricity by burning fossil fuels. We have studied the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes that have occurred in the region since the early 1970s and that are occurring today. We used software to analyze the earthquakes and to look for patterns related to water injection and energy production. We are interested in exploring ways that energy production can be continued without having negative impacts on the people in the region.

  20. Triggered surface slips in southern California associated with the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, Michael J.; Treiman, Jerome A.; Kendrick, Katherine J.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bilham, Roger; Wei, Meng; Fielding, Eric J.; Hernandez, Janis L.; Olson, Brian P.E.; Irvine, Pamela J.; Knepprath, Nichole; Sickler, Robert R.; Tong, Xiaopeng; Siem, Martin E.

    2011-01-01

    Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along more than two dozen faults, only some of which were recognized before the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas: (1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), (2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, (3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), (4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, (5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name) and related faults between it and the Yuha Fault, (6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named) and related faults to the north and south, and (7) along the southeasternmost section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical offset. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults appears to have occurred only in association with the June 14, 2010 (Mw5.7), aftershock. This aftershock also resulted in slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered offset on faults in the Yuha Desert area was mostly less than 20 mm, with three significant exceptions, including slip of about 5060 mm on the Yuha Fault, 40 mm on a fault south of Pinto Wash, and about 85 mm on the Ocotillo Fault. All triggered slips in the Yuha Desert area occurred along preexisting faults, whether previously recognized or not.

  1. Activity remotely triggered in volcanic and geothermal centers in California and Washington by the 3 November 2002 Mw=7.9 Alaska earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D. P.; Prejean, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Pitt, A. M.; S. D. Malone; Richards-Dinger, K.

    2002-12-01

    The M=7.9 Alaska earthquake of 3 November 2002 was followed by bursts of remotely triggered earthquakes at several volcanic and geothermal areas across the western United States at epicentral distances of 2,500 to 3,660 km. Husen et al. (this session) describe the triggered response for Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming. Here we highlight the triggered response for the Geysers geothermal field in northern California, Mammoth Mountain and Long Valley caldera in eastern California, the Coso geothermal field in southeastern California, and Mount Rainier in central Washington. The onset of triggered seismicity at each of these areas began 15 to 17 minutes after the Alaska earthquake during the S-wave coda and the early phases of the Love and Raleigh waves with periods of 5 to 40 seconds and dynamic strains of a few microstrain. In each case, the seismicity was characterized by spasmodic bursts of small (M<2 ), brittle-failure earthquakes. The activity persisted for just a few minutes at Mount Rainier and Mammoth Mountain and roughly 30 minutes at the Geysers and Coso geothermal fields. Many of the triggered earthquakes at all three sites were too small for reliable locations (magnitudes M<1), although their small S-P times indicate hypocentral locations within a few km of the nearest seismic station. Borehole dilatometers in vicinity of Mammoth Mountain recorded strain offsets on the order of 0.1 microstrain coincident in time with the triggered seismicity (Johnston et al. this session), and water level in the 3-km-deep LVEW well in the center of Long Valley caldera dropped by ~13 cm during passage of the seismic wave train from the Alaska earthquake followed by a gradual recovery. The Geysers, Coso, and Mount Rainier have no continuous, high-resolution strain instrumentation. A larger earthquake swarm that began 23.5 hours later (21:38 UT on the 4th) in the south moat of Long Valley caldera and included nine M>2 and one M=3.0 earthquake may represent a delayed response to the Alaska earthquake.

  2. Differentiating Tectonic and Anthropogenic Earthquakes in the Greater Los Angeles Basin, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, E.; Goebel, T.; Cochran, E. S.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 flurry of moderate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region raised the concern if some of this or past seismicity was of anthropogenic origin as opposed to being caused by ongoing transpressional tectonics. The Mw5.1 La Habra sequence is located near several major oil fields but the Mw4.4 Encino sequence was located away from oil fields, within the Santa Monica Mountains. The last century of seismicity in the Los Angeles area consists of numerous small and large earthquakes. Most of these earthquakes occur beneath the basin sediments and are associated with transpressional tectonics, related to the big bend in the San Andreas fault, but some could be associated with large oil fields. In particular, both the 1933 Mw6.4 Long Beach and the 1987 Mw5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquakes were spatially associated with two major oil fields, the Huntington Beach and Montebello fields. Numerous large oil fields have been in production for more than 125 years. The geographical locations of the oil fields follow major tectonic trends such as the Newport-Inglewood fault, the Whittier fault, and the thrust belt located at the north edge of the Los Angeles basin. More than 60 fields have oil wells and some of these have both disposal and fracking wells. Before fluid injection became common, Kovach (1974) documented six damaging events induced by fluid extraction from 1947 to 1961 in the Wilmington oil field. Since 1981 the waveform-relocated earthquake catalog for the Los Angeles basin is complete on the average above M2.0. We compare the spatial distribution of these events and the proximity of nearby active oil fields. We will also analyze the seismicity in the context of available monthly fluid extraction and injection volumes and search for temporal correlations. The La Habra sequence apparently correlates with temporal changes in extraction and injection volumes in the Santa Fe Springs oil field but not with activities in other oil fields within closer spatial proximity.

  3. Situated Preparedness: The Negotiation of a Future Catastrophic Earthquake in a California University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Natalie Danielle

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation examines disaster preparedness as engaged at a large university in southern California using inductive research and grounded theory data collection and analysis methods. The thesis consists of three parts, all addressing the problem of disaster preparedness as enacted in this at-risk context. I use in-depth interviews, archival

  4. Situated Preparedness: The Negotiation of a Future Catastrophic Earthquake in a California University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Natalie Danielle

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation examines disaster preparedness as engaged at a large university in southern California using inductive research and grounded theory data collection and analysis methods. The thesis consists of three parts, all addressing the problem of disaster preparedness as enacted in this at-risk context. I use in-depth interviews, archival…

  5. Forecasting the Next Great San Francisco Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, P.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Yakovlev, G.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2005-12-01

    The great San Francisco earthquake of 18 April 1906 and its subsequent fires killed more than 3,000 persons, and destroyed much of the city leaving 225,000 out of 400,000 inhabitants homeless. The 1906 earthquake occurred on a km segment of the San Andreas fault that runs from the San Juan Bautista north to Cape Mendocino and is estimated to have had a moment magnitude m ,l 7.9. Observations of surface displacements across the fault were in the range m. As we approach the 100 year anniversary of this event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this talk we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are new results for the statistical distribution of interval times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach. We find that our results are fit well under most circumstances by the Weibull statistical distribution, and we compute waiting times to future earthquakes based upon our simulation results. A contrasting approach to the same problem has been adopted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, who use observational data combined with statistical assumptions to compute probabilities of future earthquakes.

  6. Earthquake stress drops and inferred fault strength on the Hayward Fault, east San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, J.L.; Aron, A.

    2009-01-01

    We study variations in earthquake stress drop with respect to depth, faulting regime, creeping versus locked fault behavior, and wall-rock geology. We use the P-wave displacement spectra from borehole seismic recordings of M 1.0-4.2 earthquakes in the east San Francisco Bay to estimate stress drop using a stack-and-invert empirical Green's function method. The median stress drop is 8.7 MPa, and most stress drops are in the range between 0.4 and 130 MPa. An apparent correlation between stress drop and magnitude is entirely an artifact of the limited frequency band of 4-55 Hz. There is a trend of increasing stress drop with depth, with a median stress drop of ~5 MPa for 1-7 km depth, ~10 MPa for 7-13 km depth, and ~50 MPa deeper than 13 km. We use S=P amplitude ratios measured from the borehole records to better constrain the first-motion focal mechanisms. High stress drops are observed for a deep cluster of thrust-faulting earthquakes. The correlation of stress drops with depth and faulting regime implies that stress drop is related to the applied shear stress. We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress drops are concentrated around the major locked patch near Oakland. This also suggests a connection between stress drop and applied shear stress, as the locked patch may experience higher applied shear stress as a result of the difference in cumulative slip or the presence of higher-strength material. The stress drops do not directly correlate with the strength of the proposed wall-rock geology at depth, suggesting that the relationship between fault strength and the strength of the wall rock is complex.

  7. Near-fault measurement of postseismic slip associated with the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Rymer, M.J. )

    1990-09-01

    Five small-aperture (0.5 to 7.7 m) quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault and newly formed extensional cracks shortly after the October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta M7.1 earthquake. Two quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault near the southeast and northwest ends of the 1989 rupture, and three were installed across dominantly extensional cracks in the Summit Road area near the main-shock epicenter and off the San Andreas fault. Measurements of line-length changes from as early as 4 d up to 184 d after the earthquake in the nail quadrilaterals indicate a small amount of right-lateral postseismic slip on the San Andreas fault. The site near the southeast end of the 1989 aftershock zone on the San Andreas fault showed about 5{plus minus}2 mm of postseismic right-lateral component of slip in addition to 23 mm of right-lateral coseismic movement. The site near the northwest end of aftershocks likewise showed about 5{plus minus}2 mm of postseismic slip, but after only 5 mm of coseismic slip. Measurements at sites across extensional cracks indicate possible minor left-lateral postseismic slips, and possible extensional/contractional motion. No measurements were made of possible vertical movements. Sites on extensional cracks showed similarly small amounts of possible postseismic lateral slip, from {approximately}2 to 10 mm, even though coseismic lateral slips were much greater (up to 410 mm) than on the surface trace of the San Andreas fault. The small slip values, in spite of uncertainties, clearly show that the lack of coseismic surface slip associated with the earthquake was not followed by large postseismic slip.

  8. Along-strike variations in fault frictional properties along the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California from joint earthquake and low-frequency earthquake relocations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrington, R.M; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Griffiths, E.M.; Zeng, X.; Thurber, C.

    2016-01-01

    Recent observations of low?frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremor along the ParkfieldCholame segment of the San Andreas fault suggest slow?slip earthquakes occur in a transition zone between the shallow fault, which accommodates slip by a combination of aseismic creep and earthquakes (<15??km depth), and the deep fault, which accommodates slip by stable sliding (>35??km depth). However, the spatial relationship between shallow earthquakes and LFEs remains unclear. Here, we present precise relocations of 34 earthquakes and 34 LFEs recorded during a temporary deployment of 13 broadband seismic stations from May 2010 to July 2011. We use the temporary array waveform data, along with data from permanent seismic stations and a new high?resolution 3D velocity model, to illuminate the fine?scale details of the seismicity distribution near Cholame and the relation to the distribution of LFEs. The depth of the boundary between earthquakes and LFE hypocenters changes along strike and roughly follows the 350C isotherm, suggesting frictional behavior may be, in part, thermally controlled. We observe no overlap in the depth of earthquakes and LFEs, with an ?5??km separation between the deepest earthquakes and shallowest LFEs. In addition, clustering in the relocated seismicity near the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and near the northern boundary of the 1857 Mw 7.8 Fort Tejon rupture may highlight areas of frictional heterogeneities on the fault where earthquakes tend to nucleate.

  9. Coseismic slip distribution of the 2003 Mw 6.6 San Simeon earthquake, California, determined from GPS measurements and seismic waveform data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rolandone, F.; Dreger, D.; Murray, M.; Brgmann, R.

    2006-08-01

    We combine geodetic and seismic data sets to constrain the coseismic slip distribution of the Mw6.6 San Simeon earthquake which occurred in the central California Coast Ranges on December 22, 2003. We use continuous and survey-mode GPS observations along with seismic waveform data from the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). We invert both data sets for the distribution of finite fault slip in a layered-Earth model. The inversion results indicate that the rupture extends to the southeast of the epicenter for approximately 25-30 km and occurred in a relatively shallow depth range between 1 to 10 km. The average and peak slip are 0.61 m and 2.37 m, respectively. The scalar seismic moment is 7.85e18 Nm, and the static stress drop 1.7 MPa. This thrust earthquake is characterized by its shallow, along-strike extended slip.

  10. Triggered surface slips in the Salton Trough associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, M.J.; Boatwright, J.; Seekins, L.C.; Yule, J.D.; Liu, J.

    2002-01-01

    Surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Superstition Hills, and Imperial faults in association with the 16 October 1999 (Mw 7.1) Hector Mine earthquake, making this at least the eighth time in the past 31 years that a regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the Salton Trough. Fractures associated with the event formed discontinuous breaks over a 39-km-long stretch of the San Andreas fault, from the Mecca Hills southeastward to Salt Creek and Durmid Hill, a distance from the epicenter of 107 to 139 km. Sense of slip was right lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Dextral slip ranged from 1 to 13 mm. Maximum slip values in 1999 and earlier triggered slips are most common in the central Mecca Hills. Field evidence indicates a transient opening as the Hector Mine seismic waves passed the southern San Andreas fault. Comparison of nearby strong-motion records indicates several periods of relative opening with passage of the Hector Mine seismic wave-a similar process may have contributed to the field evidence of a transient opening. Slip on the Superstition Hills fault extended at least 9 km, at a distance from the Hector Mine epicenter of about 188 to 196 km. This length of slip is a minimum value, because we saw fresh surface breakage extending farther northwest than our measurement sites. Sense of slip was right lateral; locally there was a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Dextral slip ranged from 1 to 18 mm, with the largest amounts found distributed (or skewed) away from the Hector Mine earthquake source. Slip triggered on the Superstition Hills fault commonly is skewed away from the earthquake source, most notably in 1968, 1979, and 1999. Surface slip on the Imperial fault and within the Imperial Valley extended about 22 km, representing a distance from the Hector Mine epicenter of about 204 to 226 km. Sense of slip dominantly was right lateral; the right-lateral component of slip ranged from 1 to 19 mm. Locally there was a minor (~1-2 mm) vertical component of slip; larger proportions of vertical slip (up to 10 mm) occurred in Mesquite basin, where scarps indicate long-term oblique-slip motion for this part of the Imperial fault. Slip triggered on the Imperial fault appears randomly distributed relative to location along the fault and source direction. Multiple surface slips, both primary and triggered slip, indicate that slip repeatedly is small at locations of structural complexity.

  11. Three-Dimensional Geologic Map of Northern California: A Foundation for Earthquake Simulations and Other Predictive Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jachens, R. C.; Simpson, R. W.; Graymer, R. W.; Wentworth, C. M.; Brocher, T. M.

    2006-12-01

    Detailed, realistic models of the subsurface are needed for predicting damage patterns from future earthquakes and simulating other phenomena affecting human safety and well being. The simple models used in the past are no longer adequate. In support of a planned simulation of the ground shaking from the Great 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we constructed a three-dimensional (3D) geologic map of northern California that consists of specific geologic units separated by discrete boundaries. It is based on a century of geologic mapping, 50 years of gravity and magnetic surveying, double-difference relocated seismicity, seismic soundings, P-wave tomography, and well logs. The map is a rules-based construction composed of faults that break the map volume into fault blocks, which in turn are populated with geologic units defined by surfaces that represent their tops. The rules define how the faults and tops truncate one another. The map is easily updated as new information becomes available. The 3D map is made up of two related parts. An inner detailed map of central California centered on San Francisco extends from Clear Lake to Monterey, from the edge of the continental shelf to the western Great Valley, and to a depth of 45 km. This is embedded in a less detailed regional map that extends from north of Cape Mendocino to Parkfield, from the ocean basin to the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Ranges, and also to a depth of 45 km. The detailed map volume is broken by 25 major faults including the active San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras faults. The fault blocks are populated with geologic units in the following groups: water, Plio-Quaternary deposits, Tertiary (or undifferentiated Cenozoic) sedimentary and volcanic deposits, Mesozoic sedimentary or plutonic rocks, mafic lower crust, and mantle rocks. The primary purpose of the regional map is: 1) to provide coverage of the entire reach of the San Andreas Fault that ruptured in 1906 (including the major bedrock units that occupy the fault faces); and 2) to provide a consistent `buffer' surrounding the detailed map to minimize modeling artifacts from boundary discontinuities. The regional map includes major Mesozoic and Tertiary bedrock units, a representation of the Great Valley sedimentary fill, the mafic lower crust, and the mantle. The 3D map was assigned physical properties (seismic wave velocities, densities, and intrinsic attenuations) according to geologic unit and depth, and provided to the seismic-wave modeling community. Successful simulations of ground shaking from the Great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake based on this 3D map specifically highlighted the role of sedimentary basins in amplifying and prolonging ground shaking, and more generally illustrated the benefits of a `geologic' approach for producing realistic earth models to support predictive process modeling. The present 3D map and its derivative physical property model are appropriate for incorporation into a statewide community fault model and a statewide seismic velocity model.

  12. Implications of diverse fault orientations imaged in relocated aftershocks of the Mount Lewis, ML 5.7, California, earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilb, D.; Rubin, A. M.

    2002-11-01

    We use seismic waveform cross correlation to determine the relative positions of 2747 microearthquakes near Mount Lewis, California, that have waveforms recorded from 1984 to 1999. These earthquakes include the aftershock sequence of the 1986 ML5.7 Mount Lewis earthquake. Approximately 90% of these aftershocks are located beyond the tips of the approximately north striking main shock, defining an hourglass with the long axis aligned approximately with the main shock. Surprisingly, our relocation demonstrates that many of these aftershocks illuminate a series of near-vertical east-west faults that are ˜0.5-1 km long and separated by as little as ˜200 m. We propose that these structures result from the growth of a relatively young fault in which displacement across a right-lateral approximately north striking fault zone is accommodated by slip on secondary left-lateral approximately east striking faults. We derive the main shock-induced static Coulomb failure function (Δσf) on the dominant fault orientation in our study area using a three-dimensional (3-D) boundary element program. To bound viable friction coefficients, we measure the correlation between the rank ordering of relative amplitudes of Δσf and seismicity rate change. We find that likely friction coefficients are 0.2-0.6 and that the assumed main shock geometry introduces the largest uncertainties in the favored friction values. We obtain similar results from a visual correlation of calculated Δσf contours with the distribution of aftershocks. Viable rate-and-state constitutive parameters bound the observed relationship between magnitude of Δσf and seismicity rate change, and for our favored main shock model a maximum correlation is achieved when Δσf is computed with friction coefficients of 0.3-0.6. These values are below those previously cited for young faults.

  13. Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Iida, M.

    1990-01-01

    Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong motion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30?? and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 ?? 1024 dyn cm, depending on the rupture model. -Authors

  14. Average Stress Drops of Southern California Earthquakes in the Context of Crustal Geophysics: Implications for Fault Zone Healing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, Egill

    2015-05-01

    To understand how fault healing processes affect earthquake stress drops, we search for a possible dependency of stress drops on crustal conditions and geophysical parameters. We reanalyze the stress drop values of ~60,000 earthquakes in southern California which were originally determined by Shearer et al. J Geophys Res 111:B06303, (2006) using a spectral method. We modify the dataset to include only stress drops that are derived from at least 10 spectra and with corner frequencies between 3 and 30 Hz, and correct the rupture velocity for increasing S-wave speed with depth. We see no dependence of stress drop on moment magnitude or depth, except for a small, poorly determined increase from 15 to 25 km. We use six crustal geophysics parameters to search for obvious correlations that may explain changes in the mean values of the stress drops: (1) crustal thickness, (2) isostatic gravity, (3) heat flow, (4) shear strain rate, (5) crustal stress regime, and (6) style of faulting. None of the variables reduce the scatter but most can explain up to 10-20 % variations in the mean stress drops. The geographical distribution of the grouped mean stress drops includes very high stress drops near Ridgecrest, eastern California, as well as near fault jogs within the San Andreas Fault system. Low stress drops dominate in trans-tensional regions. Heat flow and GPS-based shear strain rate estimates have the largest influence on stress drop variations. In the range of low to medium heat flow, the stress drops increase with increasing heat flow. In contrast, at high heat flow in thin crust, the stress drops decrease systematically with increasing heat flow. Increasing shear strain rate systematically correlates with decreasing stress drops. The crustal stress regime and style of faulting also influence the stress drops as demonstrated by lower stress drops for north-northeast trending principal horizontal stress and in areas of dip-slip faulting. The mean variations in stress drops with heat flow, stress regime, crustal thickness, and density can be explained in the context of fault healing (grain boundary growth) and corresponding increase in fault zone strength on time scales modulated by the tectonic shear strain rate.

  15. Prevalence and Predictors of Somatic Symptoms among Child and Adolescents with Probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Cross-Sectional Study Conducted in 21 Primary and Secondary Schools after an Earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ye; Zhu, Shenyue; Du, Changhui

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To explore the prevalence rates and predictors of somatic symptoms among child and adolescent survivors with probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after an earthquake. Methods A total of 3053 students from 21 primary and secondary schools in Baoxing County were administered the Patient Health Questionnaire-13 (PHQ-13), a short version of PHQ-15 without the two items about sexuality and menstruation, the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES), and the self-made Earthquake-Related Experience Questionnaire 3 months after the Lushan earthquake. Results Among child and adolescent survivors, the prevalence rates of all somatic symptoms were higher in the probable PTSD group compared with the controls. The most frequent somatic symptoms were trouble sleeping (83.2%), feeling tired or having low energy (74.4%), stomach pain (63.2%), dizziness (58.1%), and headache (57.7%) in the probable PTSD group. Older age, having lost family members, having witnessed someone get seriously injured, and having witnessed someone get buried were predictors for somatic symptoms among child and adolescent survivors with probable PTSD. Conclusions Somatic symptoms among child and adolescent earthquake survivors with probable PTSD in schools were common, and predictors of these somatic symptoms were identified. These findings may help those providing psychological health programs to find the child and adolescent students with probable PTSD who are at high risk of somatic symptoms in schools after an earthquake in China. PMID:26327455

  16. Survey of strong motion earthquake effects on thermal power plants in California with emphasis on piping systems. Volume 1, Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-11-01

    Since 1982, there has been a major effort expended to evaluate the susceptibility of nuclear Power plant equipment to failure and significant damage during seismic events. This was done by making use of data on the performance of electrical and mechanical equipment in conventional power plants and other similar industrial facilities during strong motion earthquakes. This report is intended as an extension of the seismic experience data collection effort and a compilation of experience data specific to power plant piping and supports designed and constructed US power piping code requirements which have experienced strong motion earthquakes. Eight damaging (Richter Magnitude 7.7 to 5.5) California earthquakes and their effects on 8 power generating facilities in use natural gas and California were reviewed. All of these facilities were visited and evaluated. Seven fossel-fueled (dual use natural gas and oil) and one nuclear fueled plants consisting of a total of 36 individual boiler or reactor units were investigated. Peak horizontal ground accelerations that either had been recorded on site at these facilities or were considered applicable to these power plants on the basis of nearby recordings ranged between 0.20g and 0.5lg with strong motion durations which varied from 3.5 to 15 seconds. Most US nuclear power plants are designed for a safe shutdown earthquake peak ground acceleration equal to 0.20g or less with strong motion durations which vary from 10 to 15 seconds.

  17. Deformation from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake near the southwest margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmidt, Kevin M.; Ellen, Stephen D.; Peterson, David M.

    2014-01-01

    To gain additional measurement of any permanent ground deformation that accompanied this damage, we compiled and conducted post-earthquake surveys along two 5-km lines of horizontal control and a 15-km level line. Measurements of horizontal distortion indicate approximately 0.1 m shortening in a NE-SW direction across the valley margin, similar to the amount measured in the channel lining. Evaluation of precise leveling by the National Geodetic Survey showed a downwarp, with an amplitude of >0.1 m over a span of >12 km, that resembled regional geodetic models of coseismic deformation. Although the leveling indicates broad, regional warping, abrupt discontinuities characteristic of faulting characterize both the broad-scale distribution of damage and the local deformation of the channel lining. Reverse movement largely along preexisting faults and probably enhanced significantly by warping combined with enhanced ground shaking, produced the documented coseismic ground deformation.

  18. Post-earthquake relaxation evidence for laterally variable viscoelastic structure and elevated water concentration in the southwestern California mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollitz, F. F.

    2014-12-01

    I re-examine the lower crust and mantle relaxation following two large events in the Mojave Desert: the 1992 M7.3 Landers and 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes. More than a decade of GPS time series from regional sites out to 250 km from the ruptures are used to constrain models of postseismic relaxation. Crustal motions in the Mojave Desert region are elevated for several years following each event, with perturbations from a pre-Landers background of order mm to cm per year. I consider afterslip and relaxation of the ductile lower crust and mantle to explain these motions. To account for broad scale relaxation, the Burgers body model is employed, involving Kelvin (transient) viscosity and rigidity and Maxwell (steady state) viscosity and rigidity. I use the code VISCO2.5D to perform 2.5D modeling of the postseismic relaxation (3D quasi-static motions computed on 2D, laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic structures; Pollitz, 2014 GJI). Joint afterslip / postseismic relaxation modeling of continuous GPS time series up to 10.46 years following the Hector Mine earthquake (i.e. up to the time of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake) reveals that a northwest-trending `southwest domain' that envelopes the San Andreas fault system and western Mojave Desert has ~4 times larger Maxwell mantle viscosity than the adjacent `northeast domain' that extends inland and envelopes the Landers and Hector Mine rupture areas in the central Mojave Desert. This pattern is counter to that expected from regional heat flow, which is higher in the northeast domain, but it is explicable by means of a non-linear rheology that includes dependence on both strain rate and water concentration. I infer that the southwest domain mantle has a relatively low steady-state viscosity because of its high strain rate and water content. The relatively low mantle water content of the northeast domain is interpreted to result from the continual extraction of water through igneous and volcanic activity over the past ~20 Myr. The inference of Maxwellian viscosities is possible because the material relaxation times involved (5 years and 20 years for the SW and NE domains, respectively) are to a large extent spanned by the decade of available post-Hector Mine observations.

  19. Structural Constraints and Earthquake Recurrence Estimates for the West Tahoe-Dollar Point Fault, Lake Tahoe Basin, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maloney, J. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Kent, G.; Brothers, D. S.; Baskin, R. L.; Babcock, J. M.; Noble, P. J.; Karlin, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    Previous work in the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), California, identified the West Tahoe-Dollar Point Fault (WTDPF) as the most hazardous fault in the region. Onshore and offshore geophysical mapping delineated three segments of the WTDPF extending along the western margin of the LTB. The rupture patterns between the three WTDPF segments remain poorly understood. Fallen Leaf Lake (FLL), Cascade Lake, and Emerald Bay are three sub-basins of the LTB, located south of Lake Tahoe, that provide an opportunity to image primary earthquake deformation along the WTDPF and associated landslide deposits. We present results from recent (June 2011) high-resolution seismic CHIRP surveys in FLL and Cascade Lake, as well as complete multibeam swath bathymetry coverage of FLL. Radiocarbon dates obtained from the new piston cores acquired in FLL provide age constraints on the older FLL slide deposits and build on and complement previous work that dated the most recent event (MRE) in Fallen Leaf Lake at ~4.1-4.5 k.y. BP. The CHIRP data beneath FLL image slide deposits that appear to correlate with contemporaneous slide deposits in Emerald Bay and Lake Tahoe. A major slide imaged in FLL CHIRP data is slightly younger than the Tsoyowata ash (7950-7730 cal yrs BP) identified in sediment cores and appears synchronous with a major Lake Tahoe slide deposit (7890-7190 cal yrs BP). The equivalent age of these slides suggests the penultimate earthquake on the WTDPF may have triggered them. If correct, we postulate a recurrence interval of ~3-4 k.y. These results suggest the FLL segment of the WTDPF is near its seismic recurrence cycle. Additionally, CHIRP profiles acquired in Cascade Lake image the WTDPF for the first time in this sub-basin, which is located near the transition zone between the FLL and Rubicon Point Sections of the WTDPF. We observe two fault-strands trending N45W across southern Cascade Lake for ~450 m. The strands produce scarps of ~5 m and ~2.7 m, respectively, on the lake floor, but offset increases down-section to ~14 m and ~8 m at the acoustic basement. Studying the style and timing of earthquake deformation in Fallen Leaf Lake, Cascade Lake, Emerald Bay and Lake Tahoe will help us to understand how strain is partitioned between adjacent segments and the potential rupture magnitude.

  20. Surface slip associated with the 2014 South Napa, California earthquake measured on alinement arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.; Brooks, B. A.; DeLong, S. B.; Domrose, C. J.; Rosa, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The main rupture associated with the South Napa earthquake of Sept. 24, 2014 was ~15 km long from its epicenter (defined here as km 0, see figure below) to the surface rupture's north end (~km 15). Near km 10 a maximum of ~0.45 m dextral slip was most likely entirely coseismic, because it showed the same amount of slip at 12 days post-earthquake (d-PE) as it did at 1.5 d-PE. However, farther south (km~6) by 1-2 d-PE conspicuous growth of offsets on cultural features indicated high rates of afterslip (~10-20 cm/day) had occurred. Although afterslip is gradually slowing, it is expected to continue for many months or possibly years. To closely monitor this rapid afterslip, we installed four 70-140-m-long alinement arrays across the main rupture (labeled NLAR-NLOD on figure below), measuring slip to millimeter accuracy. A fifth array that spans a northeastern branch rupture has shown no afterslip. We have run early observations (to 26-d-PE) of afterslip (coupled with accumulated total slip as measured on adjacent offset cultural features) in the program AFTER (Boatwright et al., 1989). This analysis allows us to make preliminary estimates of initial (1 d-PE), final or total accumulated event slip, and coseismic estimates (i.e., projecting slip toward a ~0.5-1 s rise time). Thus far modeled slip on all four arrays indicates that final values of total (coseismic plus post-seismic) slip might be approaching the maximum coseismic slip as a limit (~0.4 0.1 m). The final values of total surface slip may thus become more uniform along the fault over time as compared to modeled heterogeneous seismic slip at depth. The timing of the surface slip release differs strikingly from south to north along the 2014 rupture; AFTER models suggest that slip south of the location of maximum slip (km 0-10) appears to have been dominantly postseismic (~50-100%), whereas north of the maximum slip (km 10-15) slip was mainly coseismic (~50-100%). The current AFTER model predicts that as surface slip along the fault approaches final values of total slip associated with this earthquake (e.g., ?1000 d-PE), the respective contributions to the total event surface slip integrated along the entire fault will approach being 27% coseismic slip and 73% postseismic slip. . . .

  1. The 130-km-long Green Valley Fault Zone of Northern California: Discontinuities Regulate Its Earthquake Recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Green Valley fault (GVF), a branch of the dextral strike-slip San Andreas fault system, connects the Northern Calaveras fault (NCF) to the Bartlett Springs fault (BSF) to the north. Although, the GVF may occasionally rupture along its entire length to produce M7 earthquakes, 2-3 km discontinuities in its trace appear to modulate the length and frequency of ruptures. The global historical earthquake record suggests that ruptures tend to stop at such fault discontinuities (1-4 km steps) about half the time (Wesnousky and Biasi, 2011). The GVF has three sections: the 77-km-long southern GVF (SGVF), the 25-km Berryessa (BF), and the 30-km Hunting Creek (HCF). The SGVF itself could produce large (M6.7) events, and the BF and HCF somewhat smaller events (M6.3-6.6). The BF is centered on a compressional pop-up structure. It is separated to the north from the HCF by a ~2.5-3 km extensional stepover and to the south from the SGVF by a ~2.5-3 km extensional bend. At its south end, the GVF is separated from the NCF by the 5-km Alamo stepover, which is likely to stop all ruptures; and at its north end the GVF (HCF section) makes a 2.5 km right step to the BSF at Wilson Valley. The HCF apparently forms a significant transition between the BSF and the GVF. The overall trend of the GVF bends ~17 through the HCF and emerges on the BSF trend. Thus, this bend, along with the Wilson Valley step-over, would tend to inhibit ruptures between BSF and sections of the GVF. Creep rates along most of the GVF (SGVF, HCF) range from 1 to 4 mm/yr. No creep is known for the BF section, but its microseismicity levels are similar to creeping parts of the GVF and BSF, so we assume that the BF may creep too. We estimate slip rate on the GVF is 62 mm/yr by interpolating rates on the BSF and the NCF. Lienkaemper and Brown (2009) estimated ~6.5 mm/yr for the average deep loading rate on the BSF using a rigid block model of the USGS-GPS site velocities observed in the central BSF. This rate is comparable to the 6 mm/yr Holocene slip rate observed on the NCF (Kelson et al., 1996). Microearthquakes on the GVF reach a depth of ~14 km. Using methods of Savage and Lisowski (1993) for the GVF suggests that creep may on average extend to depths of ~7.5 km, leaving a width of ~6.5 km of locked fault zone below. Trenching on the SGVF indicates 400 (50) years have elapsed since the most recent large earthquake (MRE) in 161050 yr CE. Previous earthquake recurrence intervals (RI) in the past millennium indicate a mean RI of 20080 yr (??) for the SGVF, which is much shorter than the 400-yr open interval. Preliminary evidence from trenching on the BF gives a MRE of 1630100 yr CE, which may thus coincide with of the MRE on the SGVF. If the MRE on the BF and SGVF sections is the same earthquake, then its expected larger size (M~6.9-7.0 vs 6.7) and greater fault complexity may have produced a large stress drop, which would possibly help explain the current long open interval. The SGVF paleoseismic recurrence model is consistent with a simple probabilistic rupture model (i.e., 50%-probable rupture across 1-4 km steps) and with a Brownian Passage Time recurrence model with a mean RI of 250 yr, CV (coefficient of variation, ?/?) of 0.6, and a 30-yr rupture probability of 20-25%.

  2. Electrical structure in a region of the Transverse Ranges, southern California. [for earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, I. K.; Phillips, R. J.; Whitcomb, J. H.; Rankin, D.

    1977-01-01

    Magnetotelluric sounding at a site in the Transverse Ranges province in southern California indicates a low-resistivity region in the lower crust and possibly also the upper mantle. A two-dimensional model fit to the data indicates that the resistivity of this region is between 1 and 10 ohm-meters. The depth to the top surface of this zone is between 15 and 20 km. The lateral extent of this feature, which strikes N65 deg W, appears to be confined to the Transverse Ranges province. The petrological characteristics of this region cannot be deduced unambiguously from the magnetotelluric sounding alone.

  3. Relation of the 1992 Landers, California, Earthquake Sequence to Seismic Scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revenaugh, Justin

    1995-11-01

    Measurements of crustal scattering for the area surrounding the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence obtained from regional array recordings of teleseismic events for the 10-year period before the sequence showed that the slip distribution on faults could be deducible from the preshock elastic structure. Scattering intensity correlated strongly with the distribution of aftershocks and slip of the moment magnitude (M_w) 7.3 Landers main shock, M_w 6.1 Joshua Tree, and M_w 6.2 Big Bear events, which implies that aftershocks and slip are structurally controlled and broadly predictable. Scattering within the fault zones was directional and consistent with variable along-strike alignment of stress-induced cracks.

  4. Non-double-couple earthquake mechanisms at the Geysers geothermal area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1996-01-01

    Inverting P- and S-wave polarities and P:SH amplitude ratios using linear programming methods suggests that about 20% of earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal area have significantly non-double-couple focal mechanisms, with explosive volumetric components as large as 33% of the seismic moment. This conclusion contrasts with those of earlier studies, which interpreted data in terms of double couples. The non-double-couple mechanisms are consistent with combined shear and tensile faulting, possibly caused by industrial water injection. Implosive mechanisms, which might be expected because of rapid steam withdrawal, have not been found. Significant compensated-linear-vector-dipole (CLVD) components in some mechanisms may indicate rapid fluid flow accompanying crack opening. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  5. EFFECTS OF THE 1906 EARTHQUAKE ON THE BALD HILL OUTLET SYSTEM, SAN MATEO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pampeyan, Earl H.

    1986-01-01

    Following the earthquake of April 18, 1906, it was discovered that a brick forebay and other parts of the reservoir outlet system were in the slip zone of the San Andreas fault. The original outlet through which water was directed to San Francisco consisted of two tunnels joined at the brick forebay; one tunnel extends 2,820 ft to the east under Bald Hill on Buri Buri Ridge, and the other tunnel intersects the lake bottom about 250 ft west of the forebay. In 1897 a second intake was added to the system, also joining the original forebay. During the present study the accessible parts of this original outlet system were examined with the hope of learning how the system had been affected by fault slip in 1906.

  6. Finite-fault analysis of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake using Pnl waveforms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.

    2008-01-01

    We apply a kinematic finite-fault inversion scheme to Pnl displacement waveforms recorded at 14 regional stations (Δ<2°) to recover the distribution of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake using both synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) calculated for one-dimensional (1D) crustal-velocity models and empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) based on the recordings of a single Mw 5.0 aftershock. Slip is modeled on a rectangular fault subdivided into 2×2 km subfaults assuming a constant rupture velocity and a 0.5 sec rise time. A passband filter of 0.1–0.5 Hz is applied to both data and subfault responses prior to waveform inversion. The SGF inversions are performed such that the final seismic moment is consistent with the known magnitude (Mw 6.0) of the earthquake. For these runs, it is difficult to reproduce the entire Pnl waveform due to inaccuracies in the assumed crustal structure. Also, the misfit between observed and predicted vertical waveforms is similar in character for different rupture velocities, indicating that neither the rupture velocity nor the exact position of slip sources along the fault can be uniquely identified. The pattern of coseismic slip, however, compares well with independent source models derived using other data types, indicating that the SGF inversion procedure provides a general first-order estimate of the 2004 Parkfield rupture using the vertical Pnl records. The best-constrained slip model is obtained using the single-aftershock EGF approach. In this case, the waveforms are very well reproduced for both vertical and horizontal components, suggesting that the method provides a powerful tool for estimating the distribution of coseismic slip using the regional Pnl waveforms. The inferred slip model shows a localized patch of high slip (55 cm peak) near the hypocenter and a larger slip area (~50 cm peak) extending between 6 and 20 km to the northwest.

  7. Deep Structure Of Long Valley, California, Based On Deep Reflections From Earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Zucca, J. J.; Kasameyer, P. W.

    1987-01-01

    Knowledge of the deep structure of Long Valley comes primarily from seismic studies. Most of these efforts have focused on delimiting the top of the inferred magma chamber. We present evidence for the location of the bottom of the low velocity layer (LVL). Two other studies have provided similar information. Steeples and Iyer (1976) inferred from teleseismic P-wave delays that low-velocity material extends from 7 km depth to 25 to 40 km, depending on the velocities assumed. Luetgert and Mooney (1985) have examined seismic refraction data from earthquake sources and have identifi