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Sample records for california earthquake probabilities

  1. Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

    E-print Network

    Shaw, Bruce E.

    Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, and Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast

  2. An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ???6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ???6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ???6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP (2002).

  3. California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Bryant, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

  4. Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stein, Ross S.

    2007-01-01

    Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

  5. California earthquake history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, T.; Branum, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the advancement in our knowledge of California's earthquake history since ??? 1800, and especially during the last 30 years. We first review the basic statewide research on earthquake occurrences that was published from 1928 through 2002, to show how the current catalogs and their levels of completeness have evolved with time. Then we review some of the significant new results in specific regions of California, and some of what remains to be done. Since 1850, 167 potentially damaging earthquakes of M ??? 6 or larger have been identified in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of 1.1 such events per year. Table I lists the earthquakes of M ??? 6 to 6.5 that were also destructive since 1812 in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of one such event every ??? 5 years. Many of these occurred before 1932 when epicenters and magnitudes started to be determined routinely using seismographs in California. The number of these early earthquakes is probably incomplete in sparsely populated remote parts of California before ??? 1870. For example, 6 of the 7 pre-1873 events in table I are of M ??? 7, suggesting that other earthquakes of M 6.5 to 6.9 occurred but were not properly identified, or were not destructive. The epicenters and magnitudes (M) of the pre-instrumental earthquakes were determined from isoseismal maps that were based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity of shaking (MMI) at the communities that reported feeling the earthquakes. The epicenters were estimated to be in the regions of most intense shaking, and values of M were estimated from the extent of the areas shaken at various MMI levels. MMI VII or greater shaking is the threshold of damage to weak buildings. Certain areas in the regions of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Eureka were each shaken repeatedly at MMI VII or greater at least six times since ??? 1812, as depicted by Toppozada and Branum (2002, fig. 19).

  6. Long?term time?dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Ned; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M?6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M?6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

  7. Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Ontology of Earthquake Probability: Metaphor

    E-print Network

    Stark, Philip B.

    Intro Probability Rabbits Description Predictions Ontology of Earthquake Probability: Metaphor" mean? Stochastic models for seismicity have a peculiar ontological status that makes it difficult "automatic alarm" strategy. I contend that probabilistic models for earthquakes lack adequate scientific

  8. Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Bakun, W.H.; Lindh, A.G.

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment. 46 references, 4 figures.

  9. Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) --The Time-Independent Model

    E-print Network

    Shaw, Bruce E.

    Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) --The Time-Independent Model, and Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3

  10. Appendix H: WGCEP Historical California Earthquake Catalog

    E-print Network

    Felzer, Karen

    Appendix H: WGCEP Historical California Earthquake Catalog By Karen R. Felzer1 and Tianqing Cao2-USGS Suggested citation: Felzer, K.R., and Cao, Tianqing, 2008, WGCEP Historical California earthquake catalog, Appendix H in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological

  11. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M?4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M?4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  12. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

  13. Earthquake probabilities: theoretical assessments and reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    It is of common knowledge that earthquakes are complex phenomena which classification and sizing remain serious problems of the contemporary seismology. In general, their frequency-magnitude distribution exhibit power law scaling. This scaling differs significantly when different time and/or space domains are considered. At the scale of a particular earthquake rupture zone the frequency of similar size events is usually estimated to be about once in several hundred years. Evidently, contemporary seismology does not possess enough reported instrumental data for any reliable quantification of an earthquake probability at a given place of expected event. Regretfully, most of the state-of-the-art theoretical approaches to assess probability of seismic events are based on trivial (e.g. Poisson, periodic, etc) or, conversely, delicately-designed (e.g. STEP, ETAS, etc) models of earthquake sequences. Some of these models are evidently erroneous, some can be rejected by the existing statistics, and some are hardly testable in our life-time. Nevertheless such probabilistic counts including seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting when used on practice eventually mislead to scientifically groundless advices communicated to decision makers and inappropriate decisions. As a result, the population of seismic regions continues facing unexpected risk and losses. The international project Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard, mainly probabilistic, methodology to assess seismic hazard. It is generally accepted that earthquakes are infrequent, low-probability events. However, they keep occurring at earthquake-prone areas with 100% certainty. Given the expectation of seismic event once per hundred years, the daily probability of occurrence on a certain date may range from 0 to 100% depending on a choice of probability space (which is yet unknown and, therefore, made by a subjective lucky chance). How many days are needed to distinguish 0 from the average probability of 0.000027? Is it theoretically admissible to apply average when seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, are evidently clustered in time and space displaying behaviors that are far from independent? Is it possible to ignore possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform distribution in space when mapping seismic probability density away from the empirical earthquake locus embedded onto the boundaries of the lithosphere blocks? These are simple questions to those who advocate the existing probabilistic products for seismic hazard assessment and forecasting. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to deterministic pattern recognition approaches applied to available geological evidences, specifically, when intending to predict predictable, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding by modeling the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades.

  14. The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Lindh, A G

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment. PMID:17739363

  15. A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, William L.; Matthews, Mark V.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Nishenko, Stuart P.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Simpson, Robert W.

    1999-01-01

    A physically-motivated model for earthquake recurrence based on the Brownian relaxation oscillator is introduced. The renewal process defining this point process model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from the ground state to failure threshold as modulated by Brownian motion. Failure times in this model follow the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution, which is specified by the mean time to failure, ?, and the aperiodicity of the mean, ? (equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation). Analysis of 37 series of recurrent earthquakes, M -0.7 to 9.2, suggests a provisional generic value of ? = 0.5. For this value of ?, the hazard function (instantaneous failure rate of survivors) exceeds the mean rate for times > ??2, and is ~ ~ 2 ? ? for all times > ?. Application of this model to the next M 6 earthquake on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California suggests that the annual probability of the earthquake is between 1:10 and 1:13.

  16. California earthquakes: Why only shallow focus?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brace, W.F.; Byerlee, J.D.

    1970-01-01

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California.

  17. California earthquakes: why only shallow focus?

    PubMed

    Brace, W F; Byerlee, J D

    1970-06-26

    Frictional sliding on sawcuts and faults in laboratory samples of granite and gabbro is markedly temperature-dependent. At pressures from 1 to 5 kilobars, stick-slip gave way to stable sliding as temperature was increased from 200 to 500 degrees Celsius. Increased temperature with depth could thus cause the abrupt disappearance of earthquakes noted at shallow depths in California. PMID:17759338

  18. Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Li, Hsien-Chi

    2015-01-01

    We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwan—the western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regions—using 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model.

  19. Effect of 2008 and 2014 Yutian earthquake on earthquake probabilities to other faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Boyan

    2015-04-01

    Static stress changes have been proposed to explain variations of seismicity rates, off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes. Based on the rate-and-state dependent frictional law[1], combined with the seismicity analysis before and after 2008 Yutian earthquake, we have quantitatively calculated the probability of earthquake occurrences nearby, and explained the probable causes of 2014 Yutian earthquake. The probabilities of occurrence a M7.0 earthquake on the eastern segments of Kengxiwar fault, which is the Seismogenic fault of 2014 Yutian earthquake, increases from 3.3% in 2008 to 5.83% in 2014. The probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake increase from 23.9% to 38.6% and from 42% to 62.3%, respectively. In addition, we have also computed the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of Gonggacuo fault, and the central segments of Kengxiwar fault, where the Coulomb stress also changed after 2008 Yutian earthquake. The earthquake probabilities of central segments of Gonggacuo and Kengxiwar fault decreased after the 2008 Yutian earthquake, while the earthquake probabilities of southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault increased. After the 2014 Yutian earthquake, the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of Gonggacuo fault increased, but the central segments of Kengxiwar fault decreased. This result indicates that slight variations in Coulomb stress changes can cause the seismic risk changes of the faults nearby. It needs about 500 years that the probabilities of occurrence a M7.0 earthquake exceed to 95% of the three faults we mentioned above. The destructive earthquakes are likely to occur in the southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault, with 26 years and 0.8 years the probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake exceed to 95%, respectively. While the seismicity of the central segments of Kengxiwar fault is low; it needs about 87 years and 54 years that the probabilities of occurrence a M6.5 and a M6.0 earthquake exceed to 95% respectively.

  20. Assessing Spatial Point Process Models for California Earthquakes Using Weighted

    E-print Network

    Schoenberg, Frederic Paik (Rick)

    Assessing Spatial Point Process Models for California Earthquakes Using Weighted K distribution of California earthquakes. 1 Introduction Ripley's K-function [Rip76], K(h), is a widely used] for an application to earthquake occurrence models. We focus here on Ripley's K-function, and in particular

  1. Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

    1998-01-01

    For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

  2. The 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Clark, M.M.; Cockerham, R.S.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Lindh, A.G.; Prescott, W.H.; Shakal, A.F.; Spudich, P.

    1984-01-01

    The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone.

  3. The 1984 morgan hill, california, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Clark, M M; Cockerham, R S; Ellsworth, W L; Lindh, A G; Prescott, W H; Shakal, A F; Spudich, P

    1984-07-20

    The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone. PMID:17749545

  4. Infrasonic observations of the Northridge, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Mutschlecner, J.P.; Whitaker, R.W.

    1994-09-01

    Infrasonic waves from the Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994 were observed at the St. George, Utah, infrasound array of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The distance to the epicenter was 543 kilometers. The signal shows a complex character with many peaks and a long duration. An interpretation is given in terms of several modes of signal propagation and generation including a seismic-acoustic secondary source mechanism. A number of signals from aftershocks are also observed.

  5. Earthquakes in Nevada triggered by the Landers, California earthquake, June 28, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.G.; Louie, J.; Zeng, Y.; Yu, G.; Savage, M.; DePolo, D.; Brune, J.N. . Seismological Lab.)

    1993-04-01

    Within 24 hours after the Landers earthquake, there were 11 magnitude 3.4+ events in the western Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert and a general increase in the rate of small events. Based on the previous 25 year combined catalog for northern and southern Nevada and eastern California, and using a quantitative model that assumes statistical independence of these regions, the probability of this happening by random changes is less than once in [approximately]10[sup 10] years. Therefore, it appears that these were triggered by the Landers event. The three events that define an upper bound to the magnitude of triggered events with distance were: Mina, 500 kilometers from Landers, M4.0, 36 minutes after Landers; Smith Valley, 590 kilometers from Landers, M3.4, 56 minutes after Landers; Little Skull Mountain, 280 kilometers from Landers, M5.6, 22.3 hours after Landers. These events are not associated with known volcanic activity or ongoing aftershock sequences. Earthquakes have been triggered in southern Nevada before, by nuclear testing and by filling of Lake Mead. Prior seismicity in the regions where triggering occurred was quite varied, and does not hold a clue about whether triggering is likely. The authors speculate that these events are triggered by the dynamic low-frequency stress associated with surface waves propagating from the Landers earthquake. A quantitative model for the strains, at the hypocentral depths of the triggered earthquakes, from significant prior events demonstrates that the Landers earthquake caused larger strains at low frequencies than other recent earthquakes of any magnitude and distance, but high frequency strains from some of the other recent earthquakes have had higher spectral amplitudes than what was expected from Landers. Prior events, including the Loma Prieta and Petrolia earthquakes, did not trigger any seismicity in the same region.

  6. Operational earthquake forecasting in California: A prototype system combining UCERF3 and CyberShake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.; Field, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about time-dependent earthquake probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To attain this goal, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. We have combined the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., 2014) with the CyberShake ground-motion model of the Southern California Earthquake Center (Graves et al., 2011; Callaghan et al., this meeting) into a prototype OEF system for generating time-dependent hazard maps. UCERF3 represents future earthquake activity in terms of fault-rupture probabilities, incorporating both Reid-type renewal models and Omori-type clustering models. The current CyberShake model comprises approximately 415,000 earthquake rupture variations to represent the conditional probability of future shaking at 285 geographic sites in the Los Angeles region (~236 million horizontal-component seismograms). This combination provides significant probability gains relative to OEF models based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), primarily because the physics-based CyberShake simulations account for the rupture directivity, basin effects, and directivity-basin coupling that are not represented by the GMPEs.

  7. Earthquake Simulations and Historical Patterns of Events: Forecasting the Next Great Earthquake in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, M. K.; Rundle, J. B.; Heien, E. M.; Turcotte, D. L.; Yikilmaz, M.; Kellogg, L. H.

    2013-12-01

    The fault system in California combined with some of the United States most densely populated regions is a recipe for devastation. It has been estimated that a repeat of the 1906 m=7.8 San Francisco earthquake could cause as much as $84 billion in damage. Earthquake forecasting can help alleviate the effects of these events by targeting disaster relief and preparedness in regions that will need it the most. However, accurate earthquake forecasting has proven difficult. We present a forecasting technique that uses simulated earthquake catalogs generated by Virtual California and patterns of historical events. As background, we also describe internal details of the Virtual California earthquake simulator.

  8. A new procedure modeling the probability distribution of earthquake size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. P.; Yun, X.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-11-01

    The probability distribution of earthquake size is needed as input data for some earthquake analyses. A common procedure is to calibrate the so-called b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and to use it as the best-estimate model parameter in an algorithm to simulate the observed earthquake-size distribution. This paper introduces a new procedure for such a simulation, on the basis of performing optimization to search for the optimum model parameter. The new option and an existing method are then both utilized to model the earthquake-size distribution around Taiwan since 1978. Owing to the nature and the power of optimization, three case studies presented in this paper all indicate that the new optimization procedure can indeed improve such a simulation over the existing procedure. Moreover, with a proper tool such as Excel Solver, practicing the new method to model the observed earthquake-size distribution is as effortless as using the existing procedure.

  9. Earthquake site response in Santa Cruz, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carver, D.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    Aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake are used to estimate site response in a 12-km2 area centered on downtown Santa Cruz. A total of 258 S-wave records from 36 aftershocks recorded at 33 sites are used in a linear inversion for site-response spectra. The inversion scheme takes advantage of the redundancy of the large data set for which several aftershocks are recorded at each site. The scheme decomposes the observed spectra into source, path, and site terms. The path term is specified before the inversion. The undetermined degree of freedom in the decomposition into source and site spectra is removed by specifying the site-response factor to be approximately 1.0 at two sites on crystalline bedrock. The S-wave site responses correlate well with the surficial geology and observed damage pattern of the mainshock. The site-response spectra of the floodplain sites, which include the heavily damaged downtown area, exhibit significant peaks. The largest peaks are between 1 and 4 Hz. Five floodplain sites have amplification factors of 10 or greater. Most of the floodplain site-response spectra also have a smaller secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. Residential areas built on marine terraces above the flood-plain experienced much less severe damage. Site-response spectra for these areas also have their largest peaks between 1 and 4 Hz, but the amplification is generally below 6. Several of these sites also have a secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz. The response peaks seen at nearly all sites between 1 and 4 Hz are probably caused by the natural resonance of the sedimentary rock column. The higher amplifications at floodplain sites may be caused by surface waves generated at the basin margins. The secondary peak between 6 and 8 Hz at many sites may be a harmonic of the 1- to 4-Hz peaks. We used waveforms from a seven-station approximately linear array located on the floodplain to calculate the apparent velocity and azimuth of propagation of coherent arrivals within moving windows of the S-wave codas. The initial windows give results that are consistent with direct S-wave arrivals. The apparent velocities are high (greater than 4.0 km/sec), and azimuths are from the source. Waves arriving later than 2 sec after the direct S waves have apparent velocities of less than 1 km/ sec, indicating that they are surface waves, and arrive from divergent azimuths. This analysis indicates that after the direct S-wave arrival, long-duration shaking comes from surface waves that are generated at the basin margin and reverberate in the floodplain sediments.

  10. A post-Tohoku earthquake review of earthquake probabilities in the Southern Kanto District, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, Paul G.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake generated an aftershock sequence that affected a large part of northern Honshu, and has given rise to widely divergent forecasts of changes in earthquake occurrence probabilities in northern Honshu. The objective of this review is to assess these forecasts as they relate to potential changes in the occurrence probabilities of damaging earthquakes in the Kanto Region. It is generally agreed that the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake increased the stress on faults in the southern Kanto district. Toda and Stein (Geophys Res Lett 686, 40: doi:10.1002, 2013) further conclude that the probability of earthquakes in the Kanto Corridor has increased by a factor of 2.5 for the time period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018 in the Kanto Corridor. Estimates of earthquake probabilities in a wider region of the Southern Kanto District by Nanjo et al. (Geophys J Int, doi:10.1093, 2013) indicate that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant in this larger region. Uchida et al. (Earth Planet Sci Lett 374: 81-91, 2013) conclude that the Philippine Sea plate the extends well north of the northern margin of Tokyo Bay, inconsistent with the Kanto Fragment hypothesis of Toda et al. (Nat Geosci, 1:1-6,2008), which attributes deep earthquakes in this region, which they term the Kanto Corridor, to a broken fragment of the Pacific plate. The results of Uchida and Matsuzawa (J Geophys Res 115:B07309, 2013)support the conclusion that fault creep in southern Kanto may be slowly relaxing the stress increase caused by the Tohoku earthquake without causing more large earthquakes. Stress transfer calculations indicate a large stress transfer to the Off Boso Segment as a result of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. However, Ozawa et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B07404, 2012) used onshore GPS measurements to infer large post-Tohoku creep on the plate interface in the Off-Boso region, and Uchida and Matsuzawa (ibid.) measured similar large creep off the Boso Peninsula. Thus some of the large stress transfer may be undergoing aseismic release, consistent with pre-Tohoku geodetic data, so a large earthquake on the Off Boso segment may have a low probability.

  11. Detection of hydrothermal precursors to large northern california earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Silver, P G; Valette-Silver, N J

    1992-09-01

    During the period 1973 to 1991 the interval between eruptions from a periodic geyser in Northern California exhibited precursory variations 1 to 3 days before the three largest earthquakes within a 250-kilometer radius of the geyser. These include the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 18 October 1989 for which a similar preseismic signal was recorded by a strainmeter located halfway between the geyser and the earthquake. These data show that at least some earthquakes possess observable precursors, one of the prerequisites for successful earthquake prediction. All three earthquakes were further than 130 kilometers from the geyser, suggesting that precursors might be more easily found around rather than within the ultimate rupture zone of large California earthquakes. PMID:17738277

  12. Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

  13. Earthquake preparedness levels amongst youth and adults in Oakland, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burris, M.; Arroyo-Ruiz, D.; Crockett, C.; Dixon, G.; Jones, M.; Lei, P.; Phillips, B.; Romero, D.; Scott, M.; Spears, D.; Tate, L.; Whitlock, J.; Diaz, J.; Chagolla, R.

    2011-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has not experienced a large earthquake since 1989. However research shows that the Hayward fault is overdue for a tremor, based on paleo-seismic research. To analyze the level of earthquake preparedness in the Oakland area (close to the Hayward fault), we surveyed over 150 people to assess their understanding of earthquakes. Our research evaluates whether increased earthquake knowledge impacts people's preparedness and concern toward earthquake events. Data was collected using smart-phone technology and survey software in four sites across Oakland including; North Oakland, Downtown, East Oakland, and a summer school program in East Oakland, which has youth from throughout the city. Preliminary studies show that over 60% of interviewees have sufficient earthquake knowledge, but that over half of all interviewees are not prepared for a seismic event. Our study shows that in Oakland, California earthquake preparedness levels vary, which could mean we need to develop more ways to disseminate information on earthquake preparedness.

  14. A model of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas Fault System for the past 1000 years

    E-print Network

    Smith-Konter, Bridget

    is a priority [Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 1995; Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Poten- tial (WGNCEP), 1996; WGCEP, 2003]. This involves characterizing the spatial

  15. Long-term changes of earthquake inter-event times and low-frequency earthquake recurrence in central California

    E-print Network

    Frankel, Kurt L.

    Long-term changes of earthquake inter-event times and low-frequency earthquake recurrence Keywords: nonvolcanic tremor low-frequency earthquake Parkfield earthquake long-term changes episodic tremor and slip central California a b s t r a c t The temporal evolution of earthquake inter-event time

  16. School Safety Down to Earth: California's Earthquake-Resistant Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Progressive Architecture, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Schools in California being built to resist damage by earthquakes are part of a program to meet building standards established in 1933. The three new schools presented reflect the strengths and weaknesses of the program. (Author/MLF)

  17. Seismic potential revealed by surface folding: 1983 coalinga, california, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Stein, R S; King, G C

    1984-05-25

    The 2 May 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.5) failed to rupture through surface deposits and, instead, elastically folded the top few kilometers of the crust. The subsurface rate of fault slip and the earthquake repeat time are estimated from seismic, geodetic, and geologic data. Three larger earthquakes (up to magnitude 7.5) during the past 20 years are also shown to have struck on reverse faults concealed beneath active folds. PMID:17743195

  18. The Coalinga, California, earthquake of May 2, 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Rymer, M.J.; Ellsworth, W.L. )

    1990-01-01

    The Coalinga earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.7 partly destroyed the town of Coalinga in Central California and prompted extensive geologic, seismologic, and geophysical investigations as to its setting, source, and cause. This book presents the results of twenty-three investigations on different aspects of the earthquake and its effects. The earthquake was associated with reverse faulting on several faults along the boundary between the Coast Ranges and the Great Valley. Similar geologic settings occur elsewhere along this boundary.

  19. Static Coulomb stress-based Southern California earthquake forecasts: A pseudoprospective test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, Anne; Jackson, David D.

    2015-03-01

    Many studies support the hypothesis that where earthquakes occur, recent changes in resolved Coulomb stress tend to be positive. How about the converse hypothesis, that where resolved Coulomb stress recently increased, earthquakes are more likely to occur? Successful earthquake forecasting by Coulomb stress changes requires the converse. To test this, we calculated stress everywhere in our study area, not just at earthquake locations. We modeled stress accumulation in Southern California since 1812 both from the elastic effect of slip below locked faults and from M ? 5 "source" earthquakes up to any given date. To minimize the effect of secondary aftershocks not directly related to the source earthquakes, we measured seismicity using a gridded binary map: each 0.1° × 0.1° cell is "activated" if containing one or more test events ("receiver" earthquakes) of M ? 2.8. We then constructed an empirical relationship between resolved Coulomb stress and activation rate within regions with similar stress values, defining probabilities of activated cells during the "test" period, within 11 years of the M7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. We found that Coulomb stress reliably indicates future earthquake locations at the 95% confidence interval. However, smoothed seismicity forecasts outperformed Coulomb forecasts in some areas with large earthquakes due to aftershock clustering. Most earthquakes tend to nucleate in areas with Coulomb stress changes greater than 0.5 MPa or less than -0.5 MPa. Within areas with increased Coulomb stress from older earthquakes, fewer earthquakes occurred than anticipated. After reducing stress uncertainty impact, Coulomb rate-and-state forecasts may also improve upon statistical earthquake forecasts.

  20. The Effects of Static Coulomb Stress Change on Southern California Earthquake Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, Anne Elizabeth

    I investigate how inclusion of static Coulomb stress changes, caused by tectonic loading and previous seismicity, contributes to the effectiveness and reliability of prospective earthquake forecasts. Several studies have shown that positive static Coulomb stress changes are associated with increased seismicity, relative to stress shadows. However, it is difficult to avoid bias when the learning and testing intervals are chosen retrospectively. I hypothesize that earthquake forecasts based on static Coulomb stress fields may improve upon existing earthquake forecasts based on historical seismicity. Within southern California, I have confirmed the aforementioned relationship between earthquake location and Coulomb stress change, but found no identifiable triggering threshold based on static Coulomb stress history at individual earthquake locations. I have also converted static Coulomb stress changes into spatially-varying earthquake rates by optimizing an index function and calculating probabilities of cells containing at least one earthquake based on Coulomb stress ranges. Inclusion of Coulomb stress effects gives an improvement in earthquake forecasts that is significant with 95% confidence, compared to smoothed seismicity null forecasts. Because of large uncertainties in Coulomb stress calculations near faults (and aftershock distributions), I combine static Coulomb stress and smoothed seismicity into a hybrid earthquake forecast. Evaluating such forecasts against those in which only Coulomb stress or smoothed seismicity determines earthquake rates indicates that Coulomb stress is more effective in the far field, whereas statistical seismology outperforms Coulomb stress near faults. Additionally, I test effects of receiver plane orientation, stress type (normal and shear components), and declustering receiver earthquakes. While static Coulomb stress shows significant potential in a prospective earthquake forecast, simplifying assumptions compromise its effectiveness. For example, we assume that crustal material within the study region is isotropic and homogeneous and purely elastic, and that pore fluid pressure variations do not significantly affect the static Coulomb stress field. Such assumptions require further research in order to detect direct earthquake triggering mechanisms.

  1. Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Hough, Susan E.

    2008-07-08

    The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

  2. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  3. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

    E-print Network

    Thomas, Jeremy N.

    On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake J. N. Thomas,1 Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et ionospheric pre- cursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06302, doi

  4. Stress drops and radiated energies of aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    E-print Network

    Abercrombie, Rachel E.

    Stress drops and radiated energies of aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and other southern California earthquakes. We use empirical Green functions to obtain source time functions for 47 of the larger (M ! 4.0) aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M6.7). We

  5. Historic Ground Failures in Northern California Triggered by Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Youd, T. Leslie; Hoose, Seena N.

    1978-01-01

    A major source of earthquake-related damage and casualties in northern California has been ground failures generated by the seismic shaking, including landslides, lateral spreads, ground settlement, and surface cracks. The historical record shows that, except for offshore shocks, the geographic area affected and the quantity and general severity of ground failures increase markedly with Richter magnitude. Hence, the largest historical event, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, has been the most important generator of ground failures. Because of recent population growth and land development in northern California, the potential for damage in future events is enormous compared with that existing in 1906. Reports of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and other northern California earthquakes and descriptions of ground failures therein are used to (1) identify and clarify the types of ground failures associated with earthquakes, (2) provide a guide for engineers, planners, and others responsible for minimizing seismic hazards, and (3) form a data base for other geotechnical studies of earthquake-triggered pound failures. Geologic, hydrologic, and topographic setting have an important influence on ground failure development as well as distance from the causative fault. Areas especially vulnerable to ground failure in northern California have been oversteepened slopes, such as mountain cliffs, streambanks, and coastal bluffs, and lowland deposits, principally Holocene fluvial deposits, deltaic deposits, and poorly compacted fills. Liquefaction has been the direct cause of most lowland failures. The historical record suggests that ground failures during future large earthquakes are most likely to occur at the same or geologically similar locations as failures during previous earhquakes.

  6. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1994-01-01

    If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

  7. Search for seismic forerunners to earthquakes in central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Robinson, R.; Bufe, C.G.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Pfluke, J.H.; Steppe, J.A.; Seekins, L.C.

    1977-01-01

    The relatively high seismicity of the San Andreas fault zone in central California provides an excellent opportunity to search for seismic forerunners to moderate earthquakes. Analysis of seismic traveltime and earthquake location data has resulted in the identification of two possible seismic forerunners. The first is a period of apparently late (0.3 sec) P-wave arrival times lasting several weeks preceding one earthquake of magnitude 5.0. The rays for these travel paths passed through - or very close to - the aftershock volume of the subsequent earthquake. The sources for these P-arrival time data were earthquakes in the distance range 20-70 km. Uncertainties in the influence of small changes in the hypocenters of the source earthquakes and in the identification of small P-arrivals raise the possibility that the apparantly delayed arrivals are not the result of a decrease in P-velocity. The second possible precursor is an apparent increase in the average depth of earthquakes preceding two moderate earthquakes. This change might be only apparent, caused by a location bias introduced by a decrease in P-wave velocity, but numerical modeling for realistic possible changes in velocity suggests that the observed effect is more likely a true migration of earthquakes. To carry out this work - involving the manipulation of several thousand earthquake hypocenters and several hundred thousand readings of arrival time - a system of data storage was designed and manipulation programs for a large digital computer have been executed. This system allows, for example, the automatic selection of earthquakes from a specific region, the extraction of all the observed arrival times for these events, and their relocation under a chosen set of assumptions. ?? 1977.

  8. Dynamics of liquefaction during the 1987 Superstition Hills, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Youd, T.L.; Hanks, T.C.

    1989-01-01

    Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value.

  9. A proposed initiative for capitalizing on the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    In June 1985 a committee of the Board on Earth Sciences asked the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences to bring to the attention of officials of the federal government the scientifically endorsed recent prediction of a moderate earthquake at Parkfield, California, between 1986 and 1993. This prediction offers a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of earthquakes and our future ability to predict them. An augmented experimental program at Parkfield is needed to document this high- probability event more completely, including the detection of premonitory phenomena. This report contains the information that was presented to the governmental officials. It is intended to stimulate their interest, understanding, and enthusiasm for augmenting an experimental program. If successful, the Parkfield experiment will eventually translate into decreasing the vulnerability of people to earthquake hazards. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  10. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

  11. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain (~320 events), and Long Valley Caldera (~40 events). LP earthquakes are notably absent under Mount Shasta. With the exception of Long Valley Caldera where LP earthquakes occur at depths of ?5 km, hypocenters are generally between 15-25 km. The rates of LP occurrence over the last decade have been relatively steady within the study areas, except at Mammoth Mountain, where years of gradually declining LP activity abruptly increased after a swarm of unusually deep (20 km) VT earthquakes in October 2012. Epicenter locations relative to the sites of most recent volcanism vary across volcanic centers, but most LP earthquakes fall within 10 km of young vents. Source models for LP earthquakes often involve the resonance of fluid-filled cracks or nonlinear flow of fluids along irregular cracks (reviewed in Chouet and Matoza, 2013, JVGR). At mid-crustal depths the relevant fluids are likely to be low-viscosity basaltic melt and/or exsolved CO2-rich volatiles (Lassen, Clear Lake, Mammoth Mountain). In the shallow crust, however, hydrothermal waters/gases are likely involved in the generation of LP seismicity (Long Valley Caldera).

  12. Losses to single-family housing from ground motions in the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Perkins, D.M.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Roth, R.J., Jr.; Petersen, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    The distributions of insured losses to single-family housing following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake for 234 ZIP codes can be satisfactorily modeled with gamma distributions. Regressions of the parameters in the gamma distribution on estimates of ground motion, derived from ShakeMap estimates or from interpolated observations, provide a basis for developing curves of conditional probability of loss given a ground motion. Comparison of the resulting estimates of aggregate loss with the actual aggregate loss gives satisfactory agreement for several different ground-motion parameters. Estimates of loss based on a deterministic spatial model of the earthquake ground motion, using standard attenuation relationships and NEHRP soil factors, give satisfactory results for some ground-motion parameters if the input ground motions are increased about one and one-half standard deviations above the median, reflecting the fact that the ground motions for the Northridge earthquake tended to be higher than the median ground motion for other earthquakes with similar magnitude. The results give promise for making estimates of insured losses to a similar building stock under future earthquake loading. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  13. Streamflow increase due to rupturing of hydrothermal reservoirs: Evidence from the 2003 San Simeon, California, Earthquake

    E-print Network

    Manga, Michael

    . Evidence and simulation suggest that these increases were caused by earthquake-induced rupturing, California, Earthquake Chi-Yuen Wang, Michael Manga, Douglas Dreger, and Alexander Wong Department of Earth May 2004; published 27 May 2004. [1] Following the Mw = 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake

  14. Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

  15. THE LOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIA,EARTHQUAKE OF OCTOBER 17,1989: EARTHQUAKEOCCURRENCE

    E-print Network

    Ze'ev, Reches

    THE LOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIA,EARTHQUAKE OF OCTOBER 17,1989: EARTHQUAKEOCCURRENCE MAIN-SHOCK CHARACTERISTICS MECHANICAL MODELING OF A FAULT-FOLD SYSTEM, WITH APPLICATION TO THE EARTHQUAKE CONTENTS By Ze accompanying the 1989Loma Prieta earthquake resemble that associated with earthquakes along deep-seated reverse

  16. Crustal deformation in Great California Earthquake cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

    1987-01-01

    A model in which coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model is proposed for computation of the periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike-slip earthquakes. The model is found to provide a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading than do simpler kinematic models. Parameters are chosen to model the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas ruptures, and predictions are found to be consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces. Results indicate that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps the crust-mantle transition zone.

  17. MOHO ORIENTATION BENEATH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE TRAVEL TIMES.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppenheimer, David H.; Eaton, Jerry P.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines relative Pn arrival times, recorded by the U. S. Geological Survey seismic network in central and northern California from an azimuthally distributed set of regional earthquakes. Improved estimates are presented of upper mantle velocities in the Coast Ranges, Great Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills and estimates of the orientation of the Moho throughout this region. Finally, the azimuthal distribution of apparent velocities, corrected for dip and individual station travel time effects, is then studied for evidence of upper mantle velocity anisotropy and for indications of lower crustal structure in central California.

  18. Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, Kenny J.; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; Oglesby, David D.

    2015-08-01

    The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

  19. Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kenny J. Ryan; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby

    2015-01-01

    The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6?MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4?m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

  20. Dynamics of liquefaction during the 1987 superstition hills, california, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Holzer, T L; Hanks, T C; Youd, T L

    1989-04-01

    Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value. PMID:17818846

  1. Northridge, California earthquake of January 17, 1994: Performance of gas transmission pipelines. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    O'Rourke, T.D.; Palmer, M.C.

    1994-05-16

    On January 17, 1994 at 4:31 a.m., a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Epicentered in the San Fernando Valley town of Northridge, California, the earthquake caused serious damage to buildings and sections of elevated freeways; ignited at least one hundred fires as it ruptured gas pipelines; and disrupted water supply systems. This reconnaissance report provides a performance analysis of gas transmission lines, both during this earthquake and during previous earthquakes, in Southern California.

  2. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, David K., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.

  3. Injury hospitalizations before and after the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake.

    PubMed

    McArthur, D L; Peek-Asa, C; Kraus, J F

    2000-07-01

    This study compared hospital-admitted injuries during the 14 days after the Northridge, California, earthquake of January 17, 1994, with hospital-admitted injuries during the preceding 16 days at the same facilities. Seventy-eight hospitals providing emergency care in Los Angeles County were screened; 16 were identified as having admitted at least one person for an earthquake-related injury. Retrospective chart reviews of hospitalized injuries for all of January 1994 were conducted at those facilities. The Northridge earthquake resulted in 138 injuries severe enough to require hospitalization. On the day of the earthquake, such injuries were 74% more frequent than usual overall. Some hospitals experienced as many as five times the number of injury admissions seen in the days preceding the event. The increase in caseload was short-lived, however; injury admissions tended to return to normal levels within two days after the quake. Previous reported estimates of the overall number of severe injuries caused by the Northridge earthquake appear to be exaggerated. PMID:10919519

  4. Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be aftershocks if they are located within a characteristic distance from the mainshock. This distance is usually taken to be one or two times the length of the fault rupture associated with the mainshock. For example, if the mainshock ruptured a 100 km length of a fault, subsequent earthquakes up to 100-200 km away from the mainshock rupture would be considered aftershocks. The fault rupture length was approximately 15 km in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 430 km in the great 1906 earthquake.

  5. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse: A Plan to Learn From the Next Large California Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loyd, R.; Walter, S.; Fenton, J.; Tubbesing, S.; Greene, M.

    2008-12-01

    In the rush to remove debris after a damaging earthquake, perishable data related to a wide range of impacts on the physical, built and social environments can be lost. The California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse is intended to prevent this data loss by supporting the earth scientists, engineers, and social and policy researchers who will conduct fieldwork in the affected areas in the hours and days following the earthquake to study these effects. First called for by Governor Ronald Reagan following the destructive M6.5 San Fernando earthquake in 1971, the concept of the Clearinghouse has since been incorporated into the response plans of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (USGS Circular 1242). This presentation is intended to acquaint scientists with the purpose, functions, and services of the Clearinghouse. Typically, the Clearinghouse is set up in the vicinity of the earthquake within 24 hours of the mainshock and is maintained for several days to several weeks. It provides a location where field researchers can assemble to share and discuss their observations, plan and coordinate subsequent field work, and communicate significant findings directly to the emergency responders and to the public through press conferences. As the immediate response effort winds down, the Clearinghouse will ensure that collected data are archived and made available through "lessons learned" reports and publications that follow significant earthquakes. Participants in the quarterly meetings of the Clearinghouse include representatives from state and federal agencies, universities, NGOs and other private groups. Overall management of the Clearinghouse is delegated to the agencies represented by the authors above.

  6. A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. P.; Xu, Y.

    2015-10-01

    From theory to experience, earthquake probability associated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with time since the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquake assessment motivated/derived from the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is introduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the new model can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between two characteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and the algorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explain and validate the new model. On the condition of best-estimate model parameters, the example calculation shows a 7.6 % probability for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan to induce a major earthquake in years 2015-2025, and if the earthquake does not occur by 2025, the earthquake probability will increase to 8 % in 2025-2035, which validates the new model that can calculate non-stationary earthquake probability as it should vary with time.

  7. ERTS Applications in earthquake research and mineral exploration in California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M.; Silverstein, J.

    1973-01-01

    Examples that ERTS imagery can be effectively utilized to identify, locate, and map faults which show geomorphic evidence of geologically recent breakage are presented. Several important faults not previously known have been identified. By plotting epicenters of historic earthquakes in parts of California, Sonora, Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada, we found that areas known for historic seismicity are often characterized by abundant evidence of recent fault and crustal movements. There are many examples of seismically quiet areas where outstanding evidence of recent fault movements is observed. One application is clear: ERTS-1 imagery could be effectively utilized to delineate areas susceptible to earthquake recurrence which, on the basis of seismic data alone, may be misleadingly considered safe. ERTS data can also be utilized in planning new sites in the geophysical network of fault movement monitoring and strain and tilt measurements.

  8. Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abdel-Gawad, M. (principal investigator); Silverstein, J.

    1972-01-01

    The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

  9. Evidence for Mogi doughnut behavior in seismicity preceding small earthquakes in southern California

    E-print Network

    Lin, Guoqing

    Evidence for Mogi doughnut behavior in seismicity preceding small earthquakes in southern preceding M 2­5 earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2005 using a high-resolution catalog and identify regions of enhanced activity in a 1-day period preceding larger earthquakes at distances

  10. Simplifying Construction of Complex Workflows for Non-Expert Users of the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Modeling Environment

    E-print Network

    Kim, Jihie

    90292, (3) Southern California Earthquake Center, USC, Los Angeles CA, 90089, USA, {Corresponding Author of the Community Modeling Environment developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center, these tools California Earthquake Center (SCEC) created the Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME) [14]. The CME

  11. Virtual California: Earthquake Statistics, Surface Deformation Patterns, Surface Gravity Changes and InSAR Interferograms for Arbitrary Fault Geometries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, K.; Sachs, M. K.; Heien, E. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Fernandez, J.; Turcotte, D.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    With the ever increasing number of geodetic monitoring satellites, it is vital to have a variety of geophysical numerical simulators to produce sample/model datasets. Just as hurricane forecasts are derived from the consensus among multiple atmospheric models, earthquake forecasts cannot be derived from a single comprehensive model. Here we present the functionality of Virtual California, a numerical simulator that can generate sample surface deformations, surface gravity changes, and InSAR interferograms in addition to producing earthquake statistics and forecasts.Virtual California is a boundary element code designed to explore the seismicity of today's fault systems. For arbitrary input fault geometry, Virtual California can output simulated seismic histories of 50,000 years or more. Using co-seismic slips from the output data, we generate surface deformation maps, surface gravity change maps, and InSAR interferograms as viewed by an orbiting satellite. Furthermore, using the times between successive earthquakes we generate probability distributions and earthquake forecasts.Virtual California is now supported by the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics. The source code is available for download and it comes with a users' manual. The manual includes instructions on how to generate fault models from scratch, how to deploy the simulator across a parallel computing environment, etc.http://geodynamics.org/cig/software/vc/

  12. Response of desert pavement to seismic shaking, Hector Mine earthquake, California, 1999

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haff, P. K.

    2005-06-01

    The October 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake in the Mojave Desert, California, generated characteristic surface disturbances on nearby desert pavements. These disturbances included (1) zones of wholesale gravel displacement interspersed with zones of intact pavement, (2) displaced and rotated cobbles, (3) moats around loosened, embedded boulders, (4) filling of abandoned cobble sockets, boulder moats, and other depressions with gravel, and (5) formation of narrow, subparallel, linear strips of exposed fine-grained subpavement matrix (matrix lineations). Clasts displaced from matrix lineations and from cobble sockets tended to move downslope. Sharp boundaries of matrix lineations and slope-controlled displacement directions on slopes of only a few degrees indicated that clasts remained close to the pavement surface during shaking. The regular, few decimeter spacing of matrix lineations suggests the presence of standing waves during seismic shaking. Boulder moats probably have good preservation potential and, at some desert pavement locations, might provide information on paleoseismic shaking. Although readily produced by coseismic shaking, displaced cobbles are unreliable indicators of past earthquake activity because of potential multiple origins. For an assumed earthquake recurrence interval of 10 ka, seismically driven sediment fluxes similar to those generated by the Hector Mine earthquake at the Lavic Siding pavement study site may be marginally competitive with aseismic smoothing mechanisms driven by bioturbation, rainbeat, and wash. For a 1 ka recurrence interval, seismic smoothing is likely to play a significant role in pavement evolution.

  13. Helium soil-gas variations associated with recent central California earthquakes: precursor or coincidence?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1981-01-01

    Decreases in the helium concentration of soil-gas have been observed to precede six of eight recent central California earthquakes. Ten monitoring stations were established near Hollister, California and along the San Andreas Fault to permit gas collection. The data showed decreases occurring a few weeks before the earthquakes and concentratiosn returned to prequake levels either shortly before or after the earthquakes.-Author

  14. Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2013-01-01

    The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike?slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right?lateral strike?slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non?planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike?slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

  15. Rupture directivity of moderate earthquakes in northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seekins, Linda C.; Boatwright, John

    2010-01-01

    We invert peak ground velocity and acceleration (PGV and PGA) to estimate rupture direction and rupture velocity for 47 moderate earthquakes (3.5?M?5.4) in northern California. We correct sets of PGAs and PGVs recorded at stations less than 55–125 km, depending on source depth, for site amplification and source–receiver distance, then fit the residual peak motions to the unilateral directivity function of Ben-Menahem (1961). We independently invert PGA and PGV. The rupture direction can be determined using as few as seven peak motions if the station distribution is sufficient. The rupture velocity is unstable, however, if there are no takeoff angles within 30° of the rupture direction. Rupture velocities are generally subsonic (0.5?–0.9?); for stability, we limit the rupture velocity at v=0.92?, the Rayleigh wave speed. For 73 of 94 inversions, the rupture direction clearly identifies one of the nodal planes as the fault plane. The 35 strike-slip earthquakes have rupture directions that range from nearly horizontal (6 events) to directly updip (5 events); the other 24 rupture partly along strike and partly updip. Two strike-slip earthquakes rupture updip in one inversion and downdip in the other. All but 1 of the 11 thrust earthquakes rupture predominantly updip. We compare the rupture directions for 10 M?4.0 earthquakes to the relative location of the mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks. Spatial distributions of 8 of 10 aftershock sequences agree well with the rupture directivity calculated for the mainshock.

  16. 1957 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as a prototype for southern California's most devastating earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bayarsayhan, C.; Bayasgalan, A.; Enhtuvshin, B.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kurushin, R.A.; Molnar, P.; Olziybat, M.

    1996-01-01

    The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.

  17. Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

    2014-05-01

    Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments creating pathways for free gas to migrate from a shallow reservoir within the gas hydrate stability zone into the water column. Our results imply that free hydrocarbon gas trapped beneath a local gas hydrate seal was mobilized through earthquake-induced mechanical failure and in that way circumvented carbon sequestration within the sediment. These findings lead to conclude that hydrocarbon seepage triggered by earthquakes can play a role for carbon budgets at other seismically active continental margins. The newly identified process presented in our study is conceivable to help interpret data from similar sites. Reference: Fischer, D., Mogollon, J.M., Strasser, M., Pape, T., Bohrmann, G., Fekete, N., Spieß, V. and Kasten, S., 2013. Subduction zone earthquake as potential trigger of submarine hydrocarbon seepage. Nature Geoscience 6: 647-651.

  18. Use of Potential Foreshocks to Estimate the Short-term Probability of Large Earthquakes, Tohoku, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imoto, Masajiro

    2005-06-01

    This study seeks to construct a hazard function for earthquake probabilities based on potential foreshocks. Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 and larger that occurred between 1976 and 2000 in an offshore area of the Tohoku region of northeast Japan were selected as events for estimating probabilities. Later occurrences of multiple events and aftershocks were omitted from targets. As a result, a total of 14 earthquakes were employed in the assessment of models. The study volume spans 300 km (East-West) × 660 km (North-South) × 60 km in depth. The probability of a target earthquake occurring at a certain point in time-space depends on the number of small earthquakes that occurred per unit volume in that vicinity. In this study, we assume that the hazard function increases geometrically with the number of potential foreshocks within a constrained space-time window. The parameters for defining potential foreshocks are magnitude, spatial extent and lead time to the point of assessment. The time parameter is studied in ranges of 1 to 5 days (1-day steps), and spatial parameters in 20 to 100 km (20-km steps). The model parameters of the hazard function are determined by the maximum likelihood method. The most effective hazard function examined was the following case: When an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 to 6.5 occurs, the hazard for a large event is increased significantly for one day within a 20 km radius surrounding the earthquake. If two or more such earthquakes are observed, the model expects a 20,000 times greater probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater than in the absence of such events.

  19. Recalculated probability of M ? 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2004-01-01

    New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M?7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

  20. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, April-June 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period April - June, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). A catalog for the first quarter of 1972 has been prepared by Wesson and others (1972). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 910 earthquakes in Central California. A substantial portion of the earthquakes reported in this catalog represents a continuation of the sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which began in February, 1972 (Wesson and others, 1972). Arrival times at 126 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 101 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  1. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California: January-March, 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Bennett, R.E.; Meagher, K.L.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the Coast Ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period January - March, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b,c,d). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1,718 earthquakes in Central California. Of particular interest is a sequence of earthquakes in the Bear Valley area which contained single shocks with local magnitudes of S.O and 4.6. Earthquakes from this sequence make up roughly 66% of the total and are currently the subject of an interpretative study. Arrival times at 118 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 94 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 24 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB); the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley,have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  2. SCIGN; new Southern California GPS network advances the study of earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnut, Ken; King, Nancy

    2001-01-01

    Southern California is a giant jigsaw puzzle, and scientists are now using GPS satellites to track the pieces. These puzzle pieces are continuously moving, slowly straining the faults in between. That strain is then eventually released in earthquakes. The innovative Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) tracks the motions of these pieces over most of southern California with unprecedented precision. This new network greatly improves the ability to assess seismic hazards and quickly measure the larger displacements that occur during and immediatelyafter earthquakes.

  3. Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley and an M ???5.0 event under or near Santa Monica Bay, 11.3 and 31.3 hr after the San Francisco mainshock, respectively. The western Arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically. In general, the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely; very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself. The total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical California mainshock-aftershock statistics, and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average California sequences. Similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 (Mw 7.9) San Andreas fault earthquake.

  4. Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

  5. Spatial patterns of aftershocks of shallow focus earthquakes in California and implications for deep focus earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.

    1989-01-01

    Previous workers have pioneered statistical techniques to study the spatial distribution of aftershocks with respect to the focal mechanism of the main shock. Application of these techniques to deep focus earthquakes failed to show clustering of aftershocks near the nodal planes of the main shocks. To better understand the behaviour of these statistics, this study applies them to the aftershocks of six large shallow focus earthquakes in California (August 6, 1979, Coyote Lake; May 2, 1983, Coalinga; April 24, 1984, Morgan Hill; August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills; July 8, 1986, North Palm Springs; and October 1, 1987, Whittier Narrows). The large number of aftershocks accurately located by dense local networks allows us to treat these aftershock sequences individually instead of combining them, as was done for the deep earthquakes. The results for individual sequences show significant clustering about the closest nodal plane and the strike direction for five of the sequences and about the presumed fault plane for all six sequences. This implies that the previously developed method does work properly. The reasons for the lack of clustering about main shock nodal planes for deep focus aftershocks are discussed. -from Author

  6. Earthquake prediction comes of age

    SciTech Connect

    Lindth, A. . Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering)

    1990-02-01

    In the last decade, scientists have begun to estimate the long-term probability of major earthquakes along the San Andreas fault. In 1985, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issued the first official U.S. government earthquake prediction, based on research along a heavily instrumented 25-kilometer section of the fault in sparsely populated central California. Known as the Parkfield segment, this section of the Sand Andreas had experienced its last big earthquake, a magnitude 6, in 1966. Estimated probabilities of major quakes along the entire San Andreas by a working group of California earthquake experts, using new geologic data and careful analysis of past earthquakes, are reported.

  7. Catalog of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in Central California, July-September 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Meagher, K.L.; Lester, F.W.

    1973-01-01

    Numerous small earthquakes occur each day in the coast ranges of Central California. The detailed study of these earthquakes provides a tool for gaining insight into the tectonic and physical processes responsible for the generation of damaging earthquakes. This catalog contains the fundamental parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network operated by the National Center for Earthquake Research (NCER), U.S. Geological Survey, during the period July - September, 1972. The motivation for these detailed studies has been described by Pakiser and others (1969) and by Eaton and others (1970). Similar catalogs of earthquakes for the years 1969, 1970 and 1971 have been prepared by Lee and others (1972 b, c, d). Catalogs for the first and second quarters of 1972 have been prepared by Wessan and others (1972 a & b). The basic data contained in these catalogs provide a foundation for further studies. This catalog contains data on 1254 earthquakes in Central California. Arrival times at 129 seismograph stations were used to locate the earthquakes listed in this catalog. Of these, 104 are telemetered stations operated by NCER. Readings from the remaining 25 stations were obtained through the courtesy of the Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley (UCB), the Earthquake Mechanism Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, San Francisco (EML); and the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento. The Seismographic Stations of the University of California, Berkeley, have for many years published a bulletin describing earthquakes in Northern California and the surrounding area, and readings at UCB Stations from more distant events. The purpose of the present catalog is not to replace the UCB Bulletin, but rather to supplement it, by describing the seismicity of a portion of central California in much greater detail.

  8. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Barka, A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

  9. LLNL earthquake impact analysis committee report on the Livermore, California, earthquakes of January 24 and 26, 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-07-15

    The overall effects of the earthquakes of January 24 and 26, 1980, at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in northern California are outlined. The damage caused by those earthquakes and how employees responded are discussed. The immediate emergency actions taken by management and the subsequent measures to resume operations are summarized. Long-range plans for recovery and repair, and the seisic history of the Livermore Valley region, various investigations concerning the design-basis earthquake (DBE), and seismic criteria for structures are reviewed. Following an analysis of the Laboratory's earthquake preparedness, emergency response, and related matters a series of conclusions and recommendations are presented. Appendixes provide additional information, such as persons interviewed, seismic and site maps, and a summary of the estimated costs incurred from the earthquakes.

  10. CISN ShakeAlert: Delivering test warnings for California earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Boese, M.; Brown, H.; Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Fischer, M.; Given, D. D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T. H.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I.; Liukis, M.; Maechling, P. J.; Meier, M. A.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Oppenheimer, D. H.; Solanki, K.

    2011-12-01

    The Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) project team within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) has been developing a test earthquake alerting system for the past five years. The project is a collaboration between Caltech, UC Berkeley, ETH Zurich, USC/SCEC and the USGS, and is funded by the USGS. We use data from the recently upgraded academic- and government-operated geophysical networks across the state to rapidly detect earthquakes and assess the hazard. The test system is operational statewide and delivers warnings to project scientists and other interested scientists. Three event detection and hazard assessment algorithms are currently used: Virtual Seismologist, Onsite and ElarmS, but others may be added to the system. The algorithms provide hazard assessments to a DecisionModule that aggregates the information. It then generates a unified alert stream that is broadcast to certified users. The alerts are received via the UserDisplay, a pop-up computer application. When it opens, the UserDisplay shows a map with the event location and magnitude, and tracks the propagation of the P- and S-waves. It also shows a countdown to shaking at the user's location and an estimate of the expected peak shaking intensity. The algorithm and DecisionModule outputs are archived by the project testing center for independent performance evaluation. Over the coming year the project intends to release alerts to a small group of test users. Identification and engagement of possible project partners is already well underway. Individual project components presentations will provide additional detail.

  11. Monte Carlo Method for Determining Earthquake Recurrence Parameters from Short Paleoseismic Catalogs: Example Calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, Tom

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means [e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006]. For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDF?s, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  12. Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.

    2008-01-01

    Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

  13. Tsunami Hazard in Crescent City, California from Kuril Islands earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.

    2007-12-01

    On November 15, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a series of tsunami surges generated by the M = 8.3 Kuril Islands earthquake causing an estimated 9.7 million (US dollars) in damages to the small boat basin. This was the first significant tsunami loss on US territory since the 1964 Alaska tsunami. The damage occurred nearly 8 hours after the official tsunami alert bulletins had been cancelled. The tsunami caused no flooding and did not exceed the ambient high tide level. All of the damage was caused by strong currents, estimated at 12 to 15 knots, causing the floating docks to be pinned against the pilings and water to flow over them. The event highlighted problems in warning criteria and communications for a marginal event with the potential for only localized impacts, the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami, and the particular exposure of the Crescent City harbor area to tsunamis. It also illustrated the poor understanding of local officials of the duration of tsunami hazard. As a result of the November tsunami, interim changes were made by WCATWC to address localized hazards in areas like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 when a M = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the Kuril Islands, a formal procedure was in place for hourly conference calls between WCATWC, California State Office of Emergency Services officials, local weather Service Offices and local emergency officials, significantly improving the decision making process and the communication among the federal, state and local officials. Kuril Island tsunamis are relatively common at Crescent City. Since 1963, five tsunamis generated by Kuril Island earthquakes have been recorded on the Crescent City tide gauge, two with amplitudes greater than 0.5 m. We use the MOST model to simulate the 2006, 2007 and 1994 events and to examine the difference between damaging and non-damaging events at Crescent City. Small changes in the angle of the rupture zone results can result in a half meter difference in water heights. We also look at the contribution of fault segments along the Kuril subduction zone using the FACTS server to look at the potentially most damaging source regions for Crescent City. A similar-sized rupture as the November 15 event located further south along the Hokkaido - Honshu area of the subduction zone, is likely to produce a slightly larger amplitude signal with and even greater delay between the first wave arrivals and the largest waves.

  14. The Northern California Earthquake Data Center: Seismic and Geophysical Data for Northern California and Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D.; Klein, F.; Zuzlewski, S.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2004-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. The NCEDC provides timeseries data from seismic, strain, electro-magnetic, a variety of creep, tilt, and environmental sensors, and continuous and campaign GPS data in raw and RINEX formats. The NCEDC has a wide variety of interfaces for data retrieval. Timeseries data are available via a web interface and standard queued request methods such as NetDC (developed in collaboration with the IRIS DMC and other international data centers), BREQ_FAST, and EVT_FAST. Interactive data retrieval methods include STP, developed by the SCEDC, and FISSURES DHI (Data Handling Interface), an object-oriented interface developed by IRIS. The Sandia MATSEIS system is being adapted to use the FISSURES DHI interface to provide an enhanced GUI-based seismic analysis system for MATLAB. Northern California and prototype ANSS worldwide earthquake catalogs are searchable from web interfaces, and supporting phase and amplitude data can be retrieved when available. Future data sets planned for the NCEDC are seismic and strain data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and SAFOD. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  15. Variation of P-wave velocity before the Bear Valley, California, earthquake of 24 February 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.; Wesson, R.L.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    1974-01-01

    Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system.

  16. Variation of P-Wave Velocity before the Bear Valley, California, Earthquake of 24 February 1972.

    PubMed

    Robinson, R; Wesson, R L; Ellsworth, W L

    1974-06-21

    Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismnograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system. PMID:17784227

  17. Post-Earthquake Damage Evaluation and Reporting Procedures: A Guidebook for California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

    The California Office of the State Architect, Structural Safety Division (OSA/SSS) is responsible for evaluating public school structures after an earthquake. However, final authority on whether a building should be reoccupied after damage lies with the school district. This guidebook is designed to help school officials assess earthquake damage…

  18. Unacceptable Risk: Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in One California School District. Hazard Mitigation Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento.

    Earthquakes are a perpetual threat to California's school buildings. School administrators must be aware that hazard mitigation means much more than simply having a supply of water bottles in the school; it means getting everyone involved in efforts to prevent tragedies from occurring in school building in the event of an earthquake. The PTA in…

  19. Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeloffs, Evelyn A.

    1998-01-01

    Coseismic water level rises in the 30-m deep Bourdieu Valley (BV) well near Parkfield, California, have occurred in response to three local and five distant earthquakes. Coseismic changes in static strain cannot explain these water level rises because (1) the well is insensitive to strain at tidal periods; (2) for the distant earthquakes, the expected coseismic static strain is extremely small; and (3) the water level response is of the incorrect sign for the local earthquakes. These water level changes must therefore be caused by seismic waves, but unlike seismic water level oscillations, they are monotonic, persist for days or weeks, and seem to be caused by waves with periods of several seconds rather than long-period surface waves. Other investigators have reported a similar phenomenon in Japan. Certain wells consistently exhibit this type of coseismic water level change, which is always in the same direction, regardless of the earthquake's azimuth or focal mechanism, and approximately proportional to the inverse square of hypocentral distance. To date, the coseismic water level rises in the B V well have never exceeded the seasonal water level maximum, although their sizes are relatively well correlated with earthquake magnitude and distance. The frequency independence of the well's response to barometric pressure in the frequency band 0.1 to 0.7 cpd implies that the aquifer is fairly well confined. High aquifer compressibility, probably due to a gas phase in the pore space, is the most likely reason why the well does not respond to Earth tides. The phase and amplitude relationships between the seasonal water level and precipitation cycles constrain the horizontal hydraulic diffusivity to within a factor of 4.5, bounding hypothetical earthquake-induced changes in aquifer hydraulic properties. Moreover, changes of hydraulic conductivity and/or diffusivity throughout the aquifer would not be expected to change the water level in the same direction at every time of the year. The first 2.5 days of a typical coseismic water level rise could be caused by a small coseismic discharge decrease at a point several tens of meters from the well. Alternatively, the entire coseismic water level signal could represent diffusion of an abrupt coseismic pore pressure increase within several meters of the well, produced by a mechanism akin to that of liquefaction. The coseismic water level changes in the BV well resemble, and may share a mechanism with, coseismic water level, stream discharge, and groundwater temperature changes at other locations where preearthquake changes have also been reported. No preearthquake changes have been observed at the BV well site, however.

  20. THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.

    2008-12-01

    Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake response technologies by Los Angeles Unified School District and a top to bottom examination of Los Angeles County Fire Department's earthquake response strategies.

  1. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Decision-Making in a Low-Probability Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.; the International Commission on Earthquake ForecastingCivil Protection

    2011-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. Most previous work on the public utility of OEF has anticipated that forecasts would deliver high probabilities of large earthquakes; i.e., deterministic predictions with low error rates (false alarms and failures-to-predict) would be possible. This expectation has not been realized. An alternative to deterministic prediction is probabilistic forecasting based on empirical statistical models of aftershock triggering and seismic clustering. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts can attain prospective probability gains in excess of 100 relative to long-term forecasts. The utility of such information is by no means clear, however, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing OEF in this sort of "low-probability environment." The need to move more quickly has been underscored by recent seismic crises, such as the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, in which an anxious public was confused by informal and inaccurate earthquake predictions. After the L'Aquila earthquake, the Italian Department of Civil Protection appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), which I chaired, to recommend guidelines for OEF utilization. Our report (Ann. Geophys., 54, 4, 2011; doi: 10.4401/ag-5350) concludes: (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and timely, and need to convey epistemic uncertainties. (b) Earthquake probabilities should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated forecasting systems. (c) All operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and the models should be under continuous prospective testing against long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. (d) Short-term models used in operational forecasting should be consistent with the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. (e) Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government, based in part on objective analysis of costs and benefits. (f) In establishing alert protocols, consideration should also be given to the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. Authoritative statements of increased risk, even when the absolute probability is low, can provide a psychological benefit to the public by filling information vacuums that lead to informal predictions and misinformation. Formal OEF procedures based on probabilistic forecasting appropriately separate hazard estimation by scientists from the decision-making role of civil protection authorities. The prosecution of seven Italian scientists on manslaughter charges stemming from their actions before the L'Aquila earthquake makes clear why this separation should be explicit in defining OEF protocols.

  2. Current Development at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appel, V. L.; Clayton, R. W.

    2005-12-01

    Over the past year, the SCEDC completed or is near completion of three featured projects: Station Information System (SIS) Development: The SIS will provide users with an interface into complete and accurate station metadata for all current and historic data at the SCEDC. The goal of this project is to develop a system that can interact with a single database source to enter, update and retrieve station metadata easily and efficiently. The system will provide accurate station/channel information for active stations to the SCSN real-time processing system, as will as station/channel information for stations that have parametric data at the SCEDC i.e., for users retrieving data via STP. Additionally, the SIS will supply information required to generate dataless SEED and COSMOS V0 volumes and allow stations to be added to the system with a minimum, but incomplete set of information using predefined defaults that can be easily updated as more information becomes available. Finally, the system will facilitate statewide metadata exchange for both real-time processing and provide a common approach to CISN historic station metadata. Moment Tensor Solutions: The SCEDC is currently archiving and delivering Moment Magnitudes and Moment Tensor Solutions (MTS) produced by the SCSN in real-time and post-processing solutions for events spanning back to 1999. The automatic MTS runs on all local events with magnitudes > 3.0, and all regional events > 3.5. The distributed solution automatically creates links from all USGS Simpson Maps to a text e-mail summary solution, creates a .gif image of the solution, and updates the moment tensor database tables at the SCEDC. Searchable Scanned Waveforms Site: The Caltech Seismological Lab has made available 12,223 scanned images of pre-digital analog recordings of major earthquakes recorded in Southern California between 1962 and 1992 at http://www.data.scec.org/research/scans/. The SCEDC has developed a searchable web interface that allows users to search the available files, select multiple files for download and then retrieve a zipped file containing the results. Scanned images of paper records for M>3.5 southern California earthquakes and several significant teleseisms are available for download via the SCEDC through this search tool.

  3. A search for long-term periodicities in large earthquakes of southern and coastal central California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1990-01-01

    It has been occasionally suggested that large earthquakes may follow the 8.85-year and 18.6-year lunar-solar tidal cycles and possibly the approximately 11-year solar activity cycle. From a new study of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in southern and coastal central California during the years 1855-1983, it is concluded that, at least in this selected area of the world, no statistically significant long-term periodicities in earthquake frequency occur. The sample size used is about twice that used in comparable earlier studies of this region, which concentrated on large earthquakes.

  4. Estimated ground motion from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake at the site of interstate 10 and La Cienega Boulevard bridge collapse, West Los Angeles, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Gibbs, J.F.; Joyner, W.B.; Tinsley, J.C.; Ponti, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    We have estimated ground motions at the site of a bridge collapse during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. The estimated motions are based on correcting motions recorded during the mainshock 2.3 km from the collapse site for the relative site response of the two sites. Shear-wave slownesses and damping based on analysis of borehole measurements at the two sites were used in the site response analysis. We estimate that the motions at the collapse site were probably larger, by factors ranging from 1.2 to 1.6, than at the site at which the ground motion was recorded, for periods less than about 1 sec.

  5. Differential Energy Radiation from Two Earthquakes with Similar Mw: The Baja California 2010 and Haiti 2010 Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Shi, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Baja, Mexico, earthquake of the April 4, 2010, Mw 7.2 occurred in northern Baja California at shallow depth along the principal plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, 2 people killed in the Mexicali area. The January 12, 2010, Mw 7.0, Haiti, earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault, and with estimates of almost 250,000 deaths. International media reports of such kind of disasters by Haiti earthquake is just resulted from poor building structure design comparing with Mexicali area. Although the moment magnitude of the Haiti earthquake is similar as the Baja earthquake, but the radiated energy of the Haiti earthquake almost as 15 times as the Baja earthquake, resulting stronger near-fault ground motions. For the Haiti earthquake and Baja earthquake with the similar moment magnitude, two special finite fault models are constructed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion for comparison purpose. We propose a new technique based on the far-field energy integrand over a simple finite fault to estimate S-wave energy radiation with associated the composite source model. The fault slip distributions on both faults are generated based on the composite source model in which the subevent-source-function is described by Brune’s pulse. The near-field peak ground accelerations (PGAs) including the shallow velocity structures (V30, average shear-velocity down to 30 m ) from the Haiti earthquake is almost as 20 times as from Baja earthquake, while the peak ground velocities (PGVs) including the shallow velocity structures from Yushu earthquake is almost as 8 times as from the Baja earthquake. Therefore, the radiated seismic energy plays a significant role in determining the levels of strong grounds in which stronger ground accelerations usually could cause much more property damages on the ground. The source rupture dynamics related to the frictional overshoot and undershoot is discussed and used to constraint source parameters such as the static stress drop and dynamic stress drop. It needs to point out that, in addition to the moment conservation applied on the main fault, the measurement of radiated seismic energy or apparent stress should be added to the numerical simulation in order to obtain physically realistic results. The numerical modeling developed in this study has a potential application in ground motion estimation/prediction for earthquake engineering purpose.

  6. Liquefaction at Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C., III; Rosenberg, L.I.

    2005-01-01

    The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefaction-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site amplification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The estimates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity = VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) "Did You Feel It?" web site.

  7. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Activation for August 24, 2014, M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosinski, A.; Parrish, J.; Mccrink, T. P.; Tremayne, H.; Ortiz, M.; Greene, M.; Berger, J.; Blair, J. L.; Johnson, M.; Miller, K.; Seigel, J.; Long, K.; Turner, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Clearinghouse's principal functions are to 1) coordinate field investigations of earth scientists, engineers, and other participating researchers; 2) facilitate sharing of observations through regular meetings and through the Clearinghouse website; and 3) notify disaster responders of crucial observations or results. Shortly after 3:20 a.m., on August 24, 2014, Clearinghouse management committee organizations, the California Geological Survey (CGS), the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES), and the California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC), authorized activation of a virtual Clearinghouse and a physical Clearinghouse location. The California Geological Survey, which serves as the permanent, lead coordination organization for the Clearinghouse, provided all coordination with the state for all resources required for Clearinghouse activation. The Clearinghouse physical location, including mobile satellite communications truck, was opened at a Caltrans maintenance facility located at 3161 Jefferson Street, in Napa. This location remained active through August 26, 2014, during which time it drew the participation of over 100 experts from more than 40 different organizations, and over 1730 remote visitors via the Virtual Clearinghouse and online data compilation map. The Clearinghouse conducted three briefing calls each day with the State Operations Center (SOC) and Clearinghouse partners, and also conducted nightly briefings, accessible to remote participants via webex, with field personnel. Data collected by field researchers was compiled into a map through the efforts of EERI and USGS volunteers in the Napa Clearinghouse. EERI personnel continued to provide updates to the compilation map over an extended period of time following de-activation of the Clearinghouse. In addition, EERI managed the Clearinghouse website. Two overflights were conducted, for reconnaissance on August 24, with a scientist and an engineer, and on August 25, to collect high resolution still-frame imagery. Following de-activation of the Clearinghouse, a multi-agency, state-federal, cost-sharing agreement was reached to acquire airborne LiDAR of the region affected by surface fault rupture.

  8. Dynamic Triggering of Earthquakes in the Salton Sea Region of Southern California from Large Regional and Teleseismic Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, A.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Wu, C.; Kilb, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    We perform a systematic survey of dynamically triggered earthquakes in the Salton Sea region of southern California using borehole seismic data recordings (2007 to present). We define triggered events as high-frequency seismic energy during large-amplitude seismic waves of distant earthquakes. Our mainshock database includes 26 teleseismic events (epicentral distances > 1000 km; Mw ? 7.5), and 8 regional events (epicentral distances 100 - 1000 km; Mw ? 5.5). Of these, 1 teleseismic and 7 regional events produce triggered seismic activity within our study region. The triggering mainshocks are not limited to specific azimuths. For example, triggering is observed following the 2008 Mw 6.0 Nevada earthquake to the north and the 2010 Mw7.2 Northern Baja California earthquake to the south. The peak ground velocities in our study region generated by the triggering mainshocks exceed 0.03 cm/s, which corresponds to a dynamic stress of ~2 kPa. This apparent triggering threshold is consistent with thresholds found in the Long Valley Caldera (Brodsky and Prejean, 2005), the Parkfield section of San Andreas Fault (Peng et al., 2009), and near the San Jacinto Fault (Kane et al., 2007). The triggered events occur almost instantaneously with the arrival of large amplitude seismic waves and appear to be modulated by the passing surface waves, similar to recent observations of triggered deep “non-volcanic” tremor along major plate boundary faults in California, Cascadia, Japan, and Taiwan (Peng and Gomberg, 2010). However, unlike these deep ‘tremor’ events, the triggered signals we find in this study have very short P- to S-arrival times, suggesting that they likely originate from brittle failure in the shallow crust. Confirming this, spectra of the triggered signals mimic spectra of typical shallow events in the region. Extending our observation time window to ~1 month following the mainshock event we find that for the 2010 Mw 7.2 Northern Baja California mainshock, triggered seismicity near the Salton Sea follows an Omori-law-type decay. In comparison, the seismicity rate at the nearby San Jacinto Fault (SJF) region remains continually high. These differences could be caused by the negative static Coulomb stress changes (i.e., stress shadows) near the Salton Sea and positive stress increases near the SJF. Alternatively, they may reflect differences in the mainshock generated dynamic stresses, background seismicity rates, earthquake detectability in these regions or some combinations of these various influences. We will be applying the recently developed matched filter technique to detect additional triggered earthquakes in these regions, allowing us to gain a better understanding of the physics of earthquake triggering in southern California.

  9. Liquefaction caused by the 2009 Olancha, California (USA), M5.2 earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Jayko, A.S.; Hauksson, E.; Fletcher, J.P.B.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Dietel, C.M.; Hudnut, K.W.

    2010-01-01

    The October 3, 2009 (01:16:00 UTC), Olancha M5.2 earthquake caused extensive liquefaction as well as permanent horizontal ground deformation within a 1.2 km2area earthquake in Owens Valley in eastern California (USA). Such liquefaction is rarely observed during earthquakes of M ? 5.2. We conclude that subsurface conditions, not unusual ground motion, were the primary factors contributing to the liquefaction. The liquefaction occurred in very liquefiable sands at shallow depth (< 2 m) in an area where the water table was near the land surface. Our investigation is relevant to both geotechnical engineering and geology. The standard engineering method for assessing liquefaction potential, the Seed–Idriss simplified procedure, successfully predicted the liquefaction despite the small earthquake magnitude. The field observations of liquefaction effects highlight a need for caution by earthquake geologists when inferring prehistoric earthquake magnitudes from paleoliquefaction features because small magnitude events may cause such features.

  10. Mapping the source of the 1983 Mw 6.5 Coalinga thrust earthquake (California)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meunier, Patrick; Marc, Odin; Hovius, Niels

    2013-04-01

    We have recently shown that density patterns of co-seismic landslides associated to large thrust earthquakes can be used to map the area of maximum slip of the fault plan (Meunier et al., 2013), arguing that once adjusted for site effects, landslide distributions can supplement or replace instrumental records of earthquakes. We have applied our method to the 1983 Mw 6.5 Coalinga thrust earthquake (California). At the times of the main shock, the epicentral area of this earthquake was not covered with the dense network of accelerometers that has been installed since. Consequently, the slip inversion, inverted from leveling cross-sections and teleseismic data, is poorly constrained in comparison to the recent big thrust earthquakes we've been studied. We discuss the inversion of the source of this earthquake and compare its localisation with the one proposed by Stein and Ekstrom (1992).

  11. The 1999 (Mw 7.1) Hector Mine, California Earthquake: Near-Field Postseismic Deformation from ERS Interferometry

    E-print Network

    Sandwell, David T.

    by the European Space Agency satellite, ERS-2. While a number of GPS measurements collected after the earthquakeThe 1999 (Mw 7.1) Hector Mine, California Earthquake: Near-Field Postseismic Deformation from ERS La Jolla, CA 92093-0225 Submitted to: BSSA Special Issue on Hector Mine Earthquake October 16, 2000

  12. Changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992.

    PubMed

    Jaumé, S C; Sykes, L R

    1992-11-20

    The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years. PMID:17778355

  13. The loma prieta, california, earthquake: an anticipated event.

    PubMed

    1990-01-19

    The first major earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906 fulfilled a long-term forecast for its rupture in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. Severe damage occurred at distances of up to 100 kilometers from the epicenter in areas underlain by ground known to be hazardous in strong earthquakes. Stronger earthquakes will someday strike closer to urban centers in the United States, most of which also contain hazardous ground. The Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that meaningful predictions can be made of potential damage patterns and that, at least in well-studied areas, long-term forecasts can be made of future earthquake locations and magnitudes. Such forecasts can serve as a basis for action to reduce the threat major earthquakes pose to the United States. PMID:17735847

  14. Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential

    1996-01-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

  15. Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goff, John A.; Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The source parameters of 19 earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from an inversion of long-period P and SH waveforms. The inversion procedure is described and the estimated precision of the derived source parameters is examined, with particular attention given to source complexity, the resolution of slip vector azimuth, and the resolution of centroid depth. The implications of these earthquake source characteristics for the tectonic evolution of the gulf are discussed.

  16. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, Matt; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucy

    2004-01-01

    We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

  17. Permeability changes associated with large earthquakes: An example from Loma Prieta, California

    SciTech Connect

    Rojstaczer, S. ); Wolf, S. )

    1992-03-01

    The Loma Prieta (California) earthquake (October 17, 1989; M 7.1) caused significant changes in the hydrology of the San Lorenzo and Pescadero drainage basins, northwest of the epicenter. Streamflow increased at most gauging stations within 15 min after the earthquake. Ionic concentrations and the calcite saturation index of the stream water also increased. Streamflow and solute concentrations decayed significantly over a period of several months following the earthquake. Ground-water levels in the highland parts of the basins were locally lowered by as much as 21 m within weeks to months after the earthquake. The spatial and temporal character of the hydrologic response suggests that the earthquake increased rock permeability and temporarily enhanced ground-water flow rates in the region.

  18. Earthquakes

    MedlinePLUS

    ... Health Matters What's New Preparation & Planning Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis ... during an earthquake. Be Ready! Earthquakes Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis ...

  19. Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    THE magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike California in 40 years. The slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults; these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes. Stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1-5, moderate6 and large7 earthquakes; conversely, those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5. Here we use an elastic half-space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the Landers earthquake on selected southern California faults, including the San Andreas. We find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4.5, and that the largest changes (1-10 bar), occurring on part of the San Bernardino segment of the San Andreas fault, may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years.

  20. Strong ground motion and source mechanism studies for earthquakes in the northern Baja California/southern California region

    SciTech Connect

    Munguia-Orozco, L.

    1983-01-01

    Earthquake data sets collected from arrays of digital seismic event recorders and strong motion instruments operated in the northern Baja California/southern California region are analyzed. Complementing these near-source data sets with data from more distant seismic stations it was possible to begin to separate and understand the effects of stress drop, source size, sediment amplification, and physical attenuation on the variation of ground motion with distance. Surprisingly large ground accelerations, over 0.5g, were recorded for some relatively small (M/sub L/ < 5) earthquakes in the Victoria, Baja California earthquake swarm of March 1978. It was concluded that this is a result of relatively high stress drops (approx. 1 kilobar) and a relatively high sediment amplification factor of about 3.4. The ground motion from these earthquakes was relatively high frequency, which was somewhat surprising since the well-established depth of the events is about 10-12 km and the energy thus passed through the 5 km thick column of sediments of the Imperial and Mexicali Valleys, which might have been expected to produce severe attenuation. The primary factors which influence the results of studies with distant station data are geologic complexities, especially the boundary region between the Imperial Valley and the granitic batholith of the Peninsular Ranges.

  1. Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2006-04-15

    The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata et al., Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method.

  2. FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, William D.; Archuleta, Ralph J.; Lindh, Allan G.

    1985-01-01

    The paper outlines a procedure for using an earthquake instability model and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an earthquake forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability model that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. Model inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the earthquake time.

  3. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Forecasts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Ruth A.

    1998-01-01

    The magnitude (Mw) 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region of central California at 5:04 p.m. P.d.t. on October 17, 1989, killing 62 people and generating billions of dollars in property damage. Scientists were not surprised by the occurrence of a destructive earthquake in this region and had, in fact, been attempting to forecast the location of the next large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region for decades. This paper summarizes more than 20 scientifically based forecasts made before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for a large earthquake that might occur in the Loma Prieta area. The forecasts geographically closest to the actual earthquake primarily consisted of right-lateral strike-slip motion on the San Andreas Fault northwest of San Juan Bautista. Several of the forecasts did encompass the magnitude of the actual earthquake, and at least one approximately encompassed the along-strike rupture length. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake differed from most of the forecasted events in two ways: (1) it occurred with considerable dip-slip in addition to strike-slip motion, and (2) it was much deeper than expected.

  4. Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Max; Clements, Robert; Rhoades, David; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2014-09-01

    Seven competing models for forecasting medium-term earthquake rates in California are quantitatively evaluated using the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The model class consists of contrasting versions of the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Size (EEPAS) and Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) modelling approaches. Models are ranked by their performance on likelihood-based tests, which measure the consistency between a model forecast and observed earthquakes. To directly compare one model against another, we run a classical paired t-test and its non-parametric alternative on an information gain score based on the forecasts. These test scores are complemented by several residual-based methods, which offer detailed spatial information. The experiment period covers 2009 June-2012 September, when California experienced 23 earthquakes above the magnitude threshold. Though all models fail to capture seismicity during an earthquake sequence, spatio-temporal differences between models also emerge. The overall best-performing model has strong time- and magnitude-dependence, weights all earthquakes equally as medium-term precursors of larger events and has a full set of fitted parameters. Models with this time- and magnitude-dependence offer a statistically significant advantage over simpler baseline models. In addition, models that down-weight aftershocks when forecasting larger events have a desirable feature in that they do not overpredict following an observed earthquake sequence. This tendency towards overprediction differs between the simpler model, which is based on fewer parameters, and more complex models that include more parameters.

  5. Seismic velocity structure and earthquake relocation for the magmatic system beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

    E-print Network

    Lin, Guoqing

    Caldera, eastern California Guoqing Lin Department of Marine Geosciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine-precision location catalog for earthquakes between 1984 and 2014 are presented for Long Valley Caldera and its for the interpretation of structural heterogeneities and physical properties in the study area. The caldera is dominated

  6. Source parameters of the 1980 Mammoth Lakes, California earthquake sequence

    SciTech Connect

    Archuleta, R.J.; Cranswick, E.; Muller, C.; Spudich, P.

    1982-06-10

    From the more than 1500 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes recorded on three-component digital seismographs (Spudich et al., 1981), 150 were used in an analysis of the locations, mechanism, and source parameters. A composite fault plane solution of nine earthquakes 3.9< or =M< or =5.1 defines a right-lateral strike slip mechanism on a steeply dipping nearly east-west plane striking S75 /sup 0/E or left-lateral strike slip on a nearly north-south plane striking N10 /sup 0/E. Vertical cross sections of well-located aftershocks indicate possible three east-west planes that coincide with the locations of the four largest earthquakes with M/sub L/> or =6.0. Using the spectral analysis of S waves (Brune, 1970), source parameters for 67 earthquakes were determined. Forty-eight had magnitudes greater than or equal to 3.0. Seismic moments ranges from 9.20 x 10/sup 18/ dyn cm to 2.33 x 10/sup 24/ dyn cm. Earthquakes with seismic moment greater than about 1.0 x 10/sup 21/ dyn cm had nearly constant stress drops (approx. =50 bars); earthquakes with seismic moment less than about 1.0 x 10/sup 21/ dyn cm had stress drop that apparetnly decrease as seismic moment decreases.

  7. Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading in Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C., III; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.

    2004-01-01

    The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of the 2003 damage was caused by lateral spreading in two separate areas, one near Norswing Drive and the other near Juanita Avenue. The areas coincided with areas with the highest liquefaction potential found in Oceano. Areas with site amplification conditions similar to those in Oceano are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. Site amplification may cause shaking from distant earthquakes, which normally would not cause damage, to increase locally to damaging levels. The vulnerability in Oceano is compounded by the widespread distribution of highly liquefiable soils that will reliquefy when ground shaking is amplified as it was during the San Simeon earthquake. The experience in Oceano can be expected to repeat because the region has many active faults capable of generating large earthquakes. In addition, liquefaction and lateral spreading will be more extensive for moderate-size earthquakes that are closer to Oceano than was the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. Site amplification and liquefaction can be mitigated. Shaking is typically mitigated in California by adopting and enforcing up-to-date building codes. Although not a guarantee of safety, application of these codes ensures that the best practice is used in construction. Building codes, however, do not always require the upgrading of older structures to new code requirements. Consequently, many older structures may not be as resistant to earthquake shaking as new ones. For older structures, retrofitting is required to bring them up to code. Seismic provisions in codes also generally do not apply to nonstructural elements such as drywall, heating systems, and shelving. Frequently, nonstructural damage dominates the earthquake loss. Mitigation of potential liquefaction in Oceano presently is voluntary for existing buildings, but required by San Luis Obispo County for new construction. Multiple mitigation procedures are available to individual property owners. These procedures typically involve either

  8. Evidence for dyke intrusion earthquake mechanisms near long valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.

    1983-01-01

    A re-analysis of the magnitude 6 earthquakes that occurred near Long Valley caldera in eastern California on 25 and 27 May 1980, suggests that at least two of them, including the largest, were probably caused by fluid injection along nearly vertical surfaces and not by slip on faults. Several investigators 1,2 have reported difficulty in explaining both the long-period surface-wave amplitudes and phases and the locally recorded short-period body-wave first motions from these events, using conventional double-couple (shear fault) source models. They attributed this difficulty to: (1) complex sources, not representable by single-fault models; (2) artefacts of the analysis methods used; or (3) effects of wave propagation through hypothetical structures beneath the caldera. We show here that the data agree well with the predictions for a compensated linear-vector dipole (CLVD) equivalent-force system3 with its principal extensional axis horizontal and trending N 55-65?? E. Such a mechanism is what would be expected for fluid injection into dykes striking N 25-35?? W, which is the approximate strike of numerous normal faults in the area. ?? 1983 Nature Publishing Group.

  9. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake

  10. Annual modulation of triggered seismicity following the 1992 Landers earthquake in California

    PubMed

    Gao; Silver; Linde; Sacks

    2000-08-01

    The mechanism responsible for the triggering of earthquakes remains one of the least-understood aspects of the earthquake process. The magnitude-7.3 Landers, California earthquake of 28 June 1992 was followed for several weeks by triggered seismic activity over a large area, encompassing much of the western United States. Here we show that this triggered seismicity marked the beginning of a five-year trend, consisting of an elevated microearthquake rate that was modulated by an annual cycle, decaying with time. The annual cycle is mainly associated with several hydrothermal or volcanic regions where short-term triggering was also observed. These data indicate that the Landers earthquake produced long-term physical changes in these areas, and that an environmental source of stress--plausibly barometric pressure--might be responsible for the annual variation. PMID:10952308

  11. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1985-01-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160??80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  12. Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, William D.

    1984-11-01

    The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.

  13. Injuries and Traumatic Psychological Exposures Associated with the South Napa Earthquake - California, 2014.

    PubMed

    Attfield, Kathleen R; Dobson, Christine B; Henn, Jennifer B; Acosta, Meileen; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Wilken, Jason A; Barreau, Tracy; Schreiber, Merritt; Windham, Gayle C; Materna, Barbara L; Roisman, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    On August 24, 2014, at 3:20 a.m., a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck California, with its epicenter in Napa County (1). The earthquake was the largest to affect the San Francisco Bay area in 25 years and caused significant damage in Napa and Solano counties, including widespread power outages, five residential fires, and damage to roadways, waterlines, and 1,600 buildings (2). Two deaths resulted (2). On August 25, Napa County Public Health asked the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for assistance in assessing postdisaster health effects, including earthquake-related injuries and effects on mental health. On September 23, Solano County Public Health requested similar assistance. A household-level Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) was conducted for these counties in two cities (Napa, 3 weeks after the earthquake, and Vallejo, 6 weeks after the earthquake). Among households reporting injuries, a substantial proportion (48% in Napa and 37% in western Vallejo) reported that the injuries occurred during the cleanup period, suggesting that increased messaging on safety precautions after a disaster might be needed. One fifth of respondents overall (27% in Napa and 9% in western Vallejo) reported one or more traumatic psychological exposures in their households. These findings were used by Napa County Mental Health to guide immediate-term mental health resource allocations and to conduct public training sessions and education campaigns to support persons with mental health risks following the earthquake. In addition, to promote community resilience and future earthquake preparedness, Napa County Public Health subsequently conducted community events on the earthquake anniversary and provided outreach workers with psychological first aid training. PMID:26355257

  14. Earthquake.

    PubMed

    Cowen, A R; Denney, J P

    1994-04-01

    On January 25, 1 week after the most devastating earthquake in Los Angeles history, the Southern California Hospital Council released the following status report: 928 patients evacuated from damaged hospitals. 805 beds available (136 critical, 669 noncritical). 7,757 patients treated/released from EDs. 1,496 patients treated/admitted to hospitals. 61 dead. 9,309 casualties. Where do we go from here? We are still waiting for the "big one." We'll do our best to be ready when Mother Nature shakes, rattles and rolls. The efforts of Los Angeles City Fire Chief Donald O. Manning cannot be overstated. He maintained department command of this major disaster and is directly responsible for implementing the fire department's Disaster Preparedness Division in 1987. Through the chief's leadership and ability to forecast consequences, the city of Los Angeles was better prepared than ever to cope with this horrendous earthquake. We also pay tribute to the men and women who are out there each day, where "the rubber meets the road." PMID:10133439

  15. On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

  16. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Markle, Sandra

    1987-01-01

    A learning unit about earthquakes includes activities for primary grade students, including making inferences and defining operationally. Task cards are included for independent study on earthquake maps and earthquake measuring. (CB)

  17. Earthquakes

    MedlinePLUS

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  18. A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

    2013-01-01

    We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1?) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or ?) of 199 ±82 yr (1?) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past ?~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, ?/?) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with ? of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

  19. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

  20. Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wei, S.; Fielding, E.; Leprince, S.; Sladen, A.; Avouac, J.-P.; Helmberger, D.; Hauksson, E.; Chu, R.; Simons, M.; Hudnut, K.; Herring, T.; Briggs, R.

    2011-01-01

    The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures1-6. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the Mw 7.2 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130 ??E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  1. The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 : a brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: What happened ... what is expected ... what can be done.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Peter L.; Page, Robert A.

    1990-01-01

    The San Andreas fault, in California, is the primary boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Land west of the fault has been moving northwestward relative to land on the east at an average rate of 2 inches per year for millions of years. This motion is not constant but occurs typically in sudden jumps during large earthquakes. This motion is relentless; therefore earthquakes in California are inevitable.

  2. Guide and Checklist for Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2003

    The recommendations included in this document are intended to reduce seismic hazards associated with the non-structural components of schools buildings, including mechanical systems, ceiling systems, partitions, light fixtures, furnishings, and other building contents. It identifies potential earthquake hazards and provides recommendations for…

  3. Identification and Reduction of Nonstructural Earthquake Hazards in California Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greene, Marjorie; And Others

    It is necessary to identify nonstructural hazards at the school site to reduce the possibly of injury in the event of an earthquake. Nonstructural hazards can occur in every part of a building and all of its contents with the exception of structure. In other words, nonstructural elements are everything but the columns, beams, floors, load-bearing…

  4. The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

    2006-12-01

    Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

  5. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Highway Systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yashinsky, Mark

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on highway systems. City streets, urban freeways, county roads, state routes, and the national highway system were all affected. There was damage to bridges, roads, tunnels, and other highway structures. The most serious damage occurred in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, 60 miles from the fault rupture. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by this earthquake was $2 billion. About half of this cost was to replace the Cypress Viaduct, a long, elevated double-deck expressway that had a devastating collapse which resulted in 42 deaths and 108 injuries. The earthquake also resulted in some positive changes for highway systems. Research on bridges and earthquakes began to be funded at a much higher level. Retrofit programs were started to upgrade the seismic performance of the nation's highways. The Loma Prieta earthquake changed earthquake policy and engineering practice for highway departments not only in California, but all over the world.

  6. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENT Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking

    E-print Network

    Allen, Richard M.

    ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENT Probabilistic warning times for earthquake ground shaking in the San. Map of the study region showing mapped faults (bold black lines) and the location of earthquakes Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2003) are shown with pink dots at the ends

  7. Lg and Rg waves on the California regional networks from the December 23, 1985 Nahanni earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, L.A.; Heaton, T.H.

    1991-01-01

    Investigates Lg and Rg propagation in California using the central and southern California regional networks. The waveforms recorded from the December 23, 1985, Nahanni, Canada, earthquake are used to construct three profiles along the propagation path (almost N-S) and three perpendicular to the propagation path (almost E-W) to look at the nature of propagation of these two types of surface waves. Groups of records from stations in various geological and tectonic provinces in California are also examined in order to establish regional characteristics of the surface waves, it is found that the propagation characteristics of Lg differ from those of Rg across California; Lg waves are apparently more sensitive to crustal heterogeneities. The most striking observations are the similarity of coda for both the Lg and the Rg waves within geologic provinces and the marked difference in coda between regions. -from Authors

  8. Analysis of Earthquake Recordings Obtained from the Seafloor Earthquake Measurement System (SEMS) Instruments Deployed off the Coast of Southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Smith, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    For more than 20 years, a program has been underway to obtain records of earthquake shaking on the seafloor at sites offshore of southern California, near oil platforms. The primary goal of the program is to obtain data that can help determine if ground motions at offshore sites are significantly different than those at onshore sites; if so, caution may be necessary in using onshore motions as the basis for the seismic design of oil platforms. We analyze data from eight earthquakes recorded at six offshore sites; these are the most important data recorded on these stations to date. Seven of the earthquakes were recorded at only one offshore station; the eighth event was recorded at two sites. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 4.7 to 6.1. Because of the scarcity of multiple recordings from any one event, most of the analysis is based on the ratio of spectra from vertical and horizontal components of motion. The results clearly show that the offshore motions have very low vertical motions compared to those from an average onshore site, particularly at short periods. Theoretical calculations find that the water layer has little effect on the horizontal components of motion but that it produces a strong spectral null on the vertical component at the resonant frequency of P waves in the water layer. The vertical-to-horizontal ratios for a few selected onshore sites underlain by relatively low shear-wave velocities are similar to the ratios from offshore sites for frequencies less than about one-half the water layer P-wave resonant frequency, suggesting that the shear-wave velocities beneath a site are more important than the water layer in determining the character of the ground motions at lower frequencies.

  9. Geodetic record of a complete earthquake cycle: constraints on frictional properties and earthquake hazard in the Imperial Valley, southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindsey, Eric; Fialko, Yuri

    2015-04-01

    We analyze a suite of geodetic observations across the Imperial fault in southern California that span the complete earthquake cycle, and show that co-, post- and interseismic observations are all required to obtain a robust constraint on the frictional properties and behavior of the fault. Coseismic and postseismic slip on the fault was measured with high precision following the 1979 M6.6 Imperial Valley earthquake, and interseismic deformation is presently recorded by a combination of multiple InSAR viewing geometries and survey-mode GPS. We combine more than 100 survey-mode GPS velocities (Crowell et al., 2013) with new InSAR observations from Envisat descending tracks 84 and 356 and ascending tracks 77 and 306 (149 total acquisitions), processed using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) package (Hooper et al., 2007). The result is a dense map of surface velocities across the Imperial fault and surrounding areas, revealing the rate of interseismic loading and along-strike variations in surface creep. We compare the geodetic data to models of earthquake cycles with rate- and state-dependent friction and find that a complete record of the earthquake cycle is required to constrain key fault properties including the velocity-strengthening or velocity-weakening parameter (a-b) and its variation with depth; moment accumulation rate; and recurrence interval of large events. We also investigate the possibility that a little-known extension of the San Jacinto fault through the town of El Centro may accommodate a significant portion of the slip previously attributed to the Imperial fault. Models including this additional fault are more consistent with the available observations, a scenario which has significant hazard implications.

  10. Do earthquakes exhibit self-organized criticality?

    PubMed

    Yang, Xiaosong; Du, Shuming; Ma, Jin

    2004-06-01

    If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability PM(T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction. PMID:15245263

  11. Earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading along major strike-slip faults in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weaver, C.S.; Hill, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    Earthquake swarms in California are often localized to areas within dextral offsets in the linear trend in active fault strands, suggesting a relation between earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading. Local crustal spereading is required by the geometry of dextral offsets when, as in the San Andreas system, faults have dominantly strike-slip motion with right-lateral displacement. Three clear examples of this relation occur in the Imperial Valley, Coso Hot Springs, and the Danville region, all in California. The first two of these areas are known for their Holocene volcanism and geothermal potential, which is consistent with crustal spreading and magmatic intrusion. The third example, however, shows no evidence for volcanism or geothermal activity at the surface. ?? 1978 Birkha??user Verlag.

  12. Coseismic stress changes induced by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Michael, A.J.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Oppenheimer, D.H. )

    1990-08-01

    Earthquake focal mechanisms from before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake are used to infer the coseismic stress change. Before the main shock, most earthquakes correspond to right lateral slip on planes sub-parallel to the San Andreas fault, and imply a generally N-S most compressional stress axis and a vertical intermediate stress axis. Aftershocks within the main shock rupture zone, however, display almost every style and orientation of faulting, implying an extremely heterogeneous stress field. This suggests that the main shock relieved most, if not all, of the shear stress acting on its fault plane. Aftershocks that lie on the perimeter of the rupture agree with spatially uniform stress states, but only when considered in three groups: north, south, and above the main shock rupture area. In each of these areas the stress state may reflect stress transfer by the main shock.

  13. Processed seismic motion records from earthquakes (1982--1993): Recorded at Scotty`s Castle, California

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P K; Honda, K K

    1993-10-01

    The 8mm data tape contains the processed seismic data of earthquakes recorded at Scotty`s Castle, California. The seismic data were recorded by seismographs maintained by the DOE/NV in Southern Nevada. Four files were generated from each seismic recorder. They are ``Uncorrected acceleration time histories, 2. corrected acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories, 3. original recording, and 4. Fourier amplitude spectra of acceleration.

  14. Cruise report for A1-98-SC southern California Earthquake Hazards Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Bohannon, Robert G.; Sliter, Ray; Dunhill, Gita; Scholl, David W.; Laursen, Jane; Reid, Jane A.; Holton, David

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project, within the Western Region Coastal and Marine Geology team (WRCMG), is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes that can potentially impact the social and economic well-being of the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region, the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin. The primary objective is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this overall objective, we are investigating the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (see Fig. 1). In addition, the project will examine the Pliocene-Pleistocene record of how this deformation has shifted in space and time. The results of this study should improve our knowledge of shifting deformation for both the long-term (105 to several 106 yr) and short-term (<50 ky) time frames and enable us to identify actively deforming structures that may constitute current significant seismic hazards.

  15. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Strong Ground Motion and Ground Failure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1992-01-01

    Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. Soft soils beneath the Marina amplified ground shaking to damaging levels and caused liquefaction of sandy artificial fills. Liquefaction required 123 repairs of pipelines in the Municipal Water Supply System, more than three times the number of repairs elsewhere in the system. Approximately 13.6 km of gas-distribution lines were replaced, and more than 20% of the wastewater collection lines were repaired or replaced.

  16. Water-level changes induced by local and distant earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.; Sneed, M.; Galloway, D.L.; Sorey, M.L.; Farrar, C.D.; Howle, J.F.; Hughes, J.

    2003-01-01

    Distant as well as local earthquakes have induced groundwater-level changes persisting for days to weeks at Long Valley caldera, California. Four wells open to formations as deep as 300 m have responded to 16 earthquakes, and responses to two earthquakes in the 3-km-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) show that these changes are not limited to weathered or unconsolidated near-surface rocks. All five wells exhibit water-level variations in response to earth tides, indicating they can be used as low-resolution strainmeters. Earthquakes induce gradual water-level changes that increase in amplitude for as long as 30 days, then return more slowly to pre-earthquake levels. The gradual water-level changes are always drops at wells LKT, LVEW, and CH-10B, and always rises at well CW-3. At a dilatometer just outside the caldera, earthquake-induced strain responses consist of either a step followed by a contractional strain-rate increase, or a transient contractional signal that reaches a maximum in about seven days and then returns toward the pre-earthquake value. The sizes of the gradual water-level changes generally increase with earthquake magnitude and decrease with hypocentral distance. Local earthquakes in Long Valley produce coseismic water-level steps; otherwise the responses to local earthquakes and distant earthquakes are indistinguishable. In particular, water-level and strain changes in Long Valley following the 1992 M7.3 Landers earthquake, 450 km distant, closely resemble those initiated by a M4.9 local earthquake on November 22, 1997, during a seismic swarm with features indicative of fluid involvement. At the LKT well, many of the response time histories are identical for 20 days after each earthquake, and can be matched by a theoretical solution giving the pore pressure as a function of time due to diffusion of a nearby, instantaneous, pressure drop. Such pressure drops could be produced by accelerated inflation of the resurgent dome by amounts too small to be detected by the two-color electronic distance-measuring network. Opening-mode displacement in the south moat, inferred to have followed a M4.9 earthquake on November 22, 1997, could also create extensional strain on the dome and lead to water-level changes similar to those following dome inflation. Contractional strain that could account for earthquake-induced water-level rises at the CW-3 well is inconsistent with geodetic observations. We instead attribute these water-level rises to diffusion of elevated fluid pressure localized in the south moat thermal aquifer. For hydraulic diffusivities appropriate to the upper few hundred meters at Long Valley, an influx of material at temperatures of 300??C can thermally generate pressure of 6 m of water or more, an order of magnitude larger than needed to account for the CW-3 water-level rises. If magma or hot aqueous fluid rises to within 1 km of the surface in the eastern part of the south moat, then hydraulic diffusivities are high enough to allow fluid pressure to propagate to CW-3 on the time scale observed. The data indicate that seismic waves from large distant earthquakes can stimulate upward movement of fluid in the hydrothermal system at Long Valley. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. New Continuous Timeseries Data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Dietz, L.; Zuzlewski, S.; Kohler, W.; Gee, L.; Oppenheimer, D.; Romanowicz, B.

    2005-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) is an archive and distribution center for geophysical data for networks in northern and central California. Recent discovery of non-volcanic tremors in northern and central California has sparked user interest in access to a wider range of continuous seismic data in the region. The NCEDC has responded by expanding its archiving and distribution to all new available continuous data from northern California seismic networks (the USGS NCSN, the UC Berkeley BDSN, the Parkfield HRSN borehole network, and local USArray stations) at all available sample rates, to provide access to all recent real-time timeseries data, and to restore from tape and archive all NCSN continuous data from 2001-present. All new continuous timeseries data will also be available in near-real-time from the NCEDC via the DART (Data Available in Real Time) system, which allows users to directly download daily Telemetry MiniSEED files or to extract and retrieve the timeseries of their selection. The NCEDC will continue to create and distribute event waveform collections for all events detected by the Northern California Seismic System (NCSS), the northern California component of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). All new continuous and event timeseries will be archived in daily intervals and are accessible via the same data request tools (NetDC, BREQ_FAST, EVT_FAST, FISSURES/DHI, STP) as previously archived waveform data. The NCEDC is a joint project of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and USGS Menlo Park.

  18. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  19. Calculation of the Rate of M>6.5 Earthquakes for California and Adjacent Portions of Nevada and Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frankel, Arthur; Mueller, Charles

    2008-01-01

    One of the key issues in the development of an earthquake recurrence model for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico is the comparison of the predicted rates of earthquakes with the observed rates. Therefore, it is important to make an accurate determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 earthquakes in California and the adjacent region. We have developed a procedure to calculate observed earthquake rates from an earthquake catalog, accounting for magnitude uncertainty and magnitude rounding. We present a Bayesian method that corrects for the effect of the magnitude uncertainty in calculating the observed rates. Our recommended determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 in this region is 0.246 ? 0.085 (for two sigma) per year, although this rate is likely to be underestimated because of catalog incompleteness and this uncertainty estimate does not include all sources of uncertainty.

  20. The Earthquake Cycle on the San Andreas Fault System in northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yikilmaz, M. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Beketova, O.; Kellogg, L. H.; Rundle, J. B.

    2012-12-01

    An important aspect of the tectonics in northern California is the northward migration of the triple junction across the region which gave birth to the San Andreas transform fault about 28 Myrs ago. The triple junction has formed by the subduction of a spreading ridge that once bounded the Farallon and the Pacific plates. A "slab window" has also been formed during this subduction event. Due to the high heat flow caused by this slab window, a soft zone of deformation with a width of ~100 km has been generated. This deformation zone is bounded on the west by the near rigid Pacific Plate and on the east by the near rigid Sierra-Nevada Central Valley Plate. Continuous and campaign GPS measurements indicate a near-uniform shear strain in this zone of deformation. We propose a hypothesis for the deformation pattern associated with great earthquakes and the linear strain field discussed above. We separate the earthquake cycle into three parts, beginning with the great 1906 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, these are: 1) The coseismic behavior associated with the great earthquake. We take the slip to be 4 m and the associated stress drop extends some 15 km on either side of the fault. 2) Stress relaxation following the earthquake. This relaxation results in a near uniform state of stress across the zone of deformation and a reloading of the San Andreas Fault. 3)Uniform shear stress loading until the next great earthquake occurs in agreement with the GPS observations. We attribute this near uniform shear to fluid-like behavior beneath the brittle upper lithosphere in which earthquakes occur.

  1. Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers: A Collaboration Between the Earthquake Country Alliance and Free-Choice Learning Institutions in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degroot, R. M.; Springer, K.; Brooks, C. J.; Schuman, L.; Dalton, D.; Benthien, M. L.

    2009-12-01

    In 1999 the Southern California Earthquake Center initiated an effort to expand its reach to multiple target audiences through the development of an interpretive trail on the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek and an earthquake exhibit at Fingerprints Youth Museum in Hemet. These projects and involvement with the San Bernardino County Museum in Redlands beginning in 2007 led to the creation of Earthquake Education and Public Information Centers (EPIcenters) in 2008. The impetus for the development of the network was to broaden participation in The Great Southern California ShakeOut. In 2009 it has grown to be more comprehensive in its scope including its evolution into a statewide network. EPIcenters constitute a variety of free-choice learning institutions, representing museums, science centers, libraries, universities, parks, and other places visited by a variety of audiences including families, seniors, and school groups. They share a commitment to demonstrating and encouraging earthquake preparedness. EPIcenters coordinate Earthquake Country Alliance activities in their county or region, lead presentations or organize events in their communities, or in other ways demonstrate leadership in earthquake education and risk reduction. The San Bernardino County Museum (Southern California) and The Tech Museum of Innovation (Northern California) serve as EPIcenter regional coordinating institutions. They interact with over thirty institutional partners who have implemented a variety of activities from displays and talks to earthquake exhibitions. While many activities are focused on the time leading up to and just after the ShakeOut, most EPIcenter members conduct activities year round. Network members at Kidspace Museum in Pasadena and San Diego Natural History Museum have formed EPIcenter focus groups on early childhood education and safety and security. This presentation highlights the development of the EPIcenter network, synergistic activities resulting from this collaboration, and lessons learned from interacting with free-choice learning institutions.

  2. Cruise report for 01-99-SC: southern California earthquake hazards project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Reid, Jane A.; Sliter, Ray W.; Holton, David; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Fisher, Michael A.; Childs, Jonathan R.

    1999-01-01

    The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes occurring in the offshore areas that have significant potential to impact the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region. The project activity is supported through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the Geologic Division of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is a component of the Geologic Division's Science Strategy under Goal 1—Conduct Geologic Hazard Assessments for Mitigation Planning (Bohlen et al., 1998). The project research is specifically stated under Activity 1.1.2 of the Science Strategy: Earthquake Hazard Assessments and Loss Reduction Products in Urban Regions. This activity involves "research, seismic and geodetic monitoring, field studies, geologic mapping, and analyses needed to provide seismic hazard assessments of major urban centers in earthquake-prone regions including adjoining coastal and offshore areas." The southern California urban areas, which form the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin, are among a few specifically designated for special emphasis under the Division's science strategy (Bohlen et al., 1998). The primary objective of the project is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this objective, we are conducting field investigations to observe the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (Fig. 1). In addition, acoustic imaging should help determine the subsurface dimensions of the faults and identify the size and frequency of submarine landslides, both of which are necessary for evaluating the potential for generating destructive tsunamis in the southern California offshore. In order to evaluate the strain associated with the offshore structures, the initial results from the field mapping under this project will be used to identify possible sites for deployment of acoustic geodetic instruments to monitor strain in the offshore region. A major goal of mapping under this project is to provide detailed geologic and geophysical information in GIS data bases that build on the earlier studies and use the new data to precisely locate active faults and to map recent submarine landslide deposits.

  3. Aftershock slip behavior of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Oppenheimer, D.H. )

    1990-07-01

    An analysis of 745 aftershocks of the M7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October, 1989 reveals a wide variety of focal mechanisms. At the northwestern end of the aftershock zone earthquakes that apparently occurred off the main rupture plane exhibit mechanisms with predominantly reverse slip on planes nearly parallel to the San Andreas fault. At the southeastern end the mechanisms exhibit right-lateral motion on near-vertical planes, suggesting that these aftershocks involve slip on the San Andreas fault. Few of the aftershock mechanisms in the central zone resemble the main shock mechanism (strike N130{degree}E, dip 70{degree}SW, rake 104{degree}), but instead exhibit reverse, right-lateral, left-lateral, and normal motion on planes subparallel to the main shock rupture plane. The dip of the aftershock zone is parallel to the main shock slip plane and includes the main shock hypocenter. However, the lack of agreement between the main shock and the aftershock mechanisms suggests that few of the aftershocks occurred on the main shock slip plane. This behavior is consistent with observations of aftershock sequences for other dip-slip events and also with studies indicating that main shock rupture zones are at all other times mostly aseismic. If the stress drop for the main shock relieved most of the tectonic stress, the mechanisms could reflect the heterogeneity of the near-field stress redistribution. Alternatively the variety of the aftershock mechanisms may reflect deformation by block motion within a narrow zone adjacent to the main shock rupture plane.

  4. Seismic velocity structure and earthquake relocation for the magmatic system beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Guoqing

    2015-04-01

    A new three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity model and high-precision location catalog for earthquakes between 1984 and 2014 are presented for Long Valley Caldera and its adjacent fault zones in eastern California. The simul2000 tomography algorithm is applied to derive the 3-D Vp and Vp/Vs models using first-arrivals of 1004 composite earthquakes obtained from the original seismic data at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The resulting Vp model reflects geological structures and agrees with previous local tomographic studies. The simultaneously resolved Vp/Vs model is a major contribution of this study providing an important complement to the Vp model for the interpretation of structural heterogeneities and physical properties in the study area. The caldera is dominated by low Vp anomalies at shallow depths due to postcaldera fill. High Vp and low Vp/Vs values are resolved from the surface to ~ 3.4 km depth beneath the center of the caldera, corresponding to the structural uplift of the Resurgent Dome. An aseismic body with low Vp and high Vp/Vs anomalies at 4.2-6.2 km depth below the surface is consistent with the location of partial melt suggested by previous studies based on Vp models only and the inflation source locations based on geodetic modeling. The Sierran crystalline rocks outside the caldera are generally characterized with high Vp and low Vp/Vs values. The newly resolved velocity model improves absolute location accuracy for the seismicity in the study area and ultimately provides the basis for a high-precision earthquake catalog based on similar-event cluster analysis and waveform cross-correlation data. The fine-scale velocity structure and precise earthquake relocations are useful for investigating magma sources, seismicity and stress interaction and other seismological studies in Long Valley.

  5. Web Services and Other Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, or MiniSEED depending on the service, and are compatible with the equivalent IRIS DMC web services. The NCEDC is currently providing the following Web Services: (1) Station inventory and channel response information delivered in StationXML format, (2) Channel response information delivered in RESP format, (3) Time series availability delivered in text and XML formats, (4) Single channel and bulk data request delivered in MiniSEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a rich Earthquake Catalog Web Service to allow users to query earthquake catalogs based on selection parameters such as time, location or geographic region, magnitude, depth, azimuthal gap, and rms. It will return (in QuakeML format) user-specified results that can include simple earthquake parameters, as well as observations such as phase arrivals, codas, amplitudes, and computed parameters such as first motion mechanisms, moment tensors, and rupture length. The NCEDC will work with both IRIS and the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) to define a uniform set of web service specifications that can be implemented by multiple data centers to provide users with a common data interface across data centers. The NCEDC now hosts earthquake catalogs and waveforms from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) monitoring networks. These data can be accessed through the above web services and through special NCEDC web pages.

  6. Source properties of earthquakes near the Salton Sea triggered by the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Kanamori, H.

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the source properties of a sequence of triggered earthquakes that occurred near the Salton Sea in southern California in the immediate aftermath of the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake of 16 October 1999. The sequence produced a number of early events that were not initially located by the regional network, including two moderate earthquakes: the first within 30 sec of the P-wave arrival and a second approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock. We use available amplitude and waveform data from these events to estimate magnitudes to be approximately 4.7 and 4.4, respectively, and to obtain crude estimates of their locations. The sequence of small events following the initial M 4.7 earthquake is clustered and suggestive of a local aftershock sequence. Using both broadband TriNet data and analog data from the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN), we also investigate the spectral characteristics of the M 4.4 event and other triggered earthquakes using empirical Green's function (EGF) analysis. We find that the source spectra of the events are consistent with expectations for tectonic (brittle shear failure) earthquakes, and infer stress drop values of 0.1 to 6 MPa for six M 2.1 to M 4.4 events. The estimated stress drop values are within the range observed for tectonic earthquakes elsewhere. They are relatively low compared to typically observed stress drop values, which is consistent with expectations for faulting in an extensional, high heat flow regime. The results therefore suggest that, at least in this case, triggered earthquakes are associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism. This further suggests that triggered earthquakes may tend to occur in geothermal-volcanic regions because shear failure occurs at, and can be triggered by, relatively low stresses in extensional regimes.

  7. Broad belts of shear zones: The common form of surface rupture produced by the 28 June 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Cruikshank, K.M. |; Fleming, R.W.

    1993-12-31

    Surface rupturing during the 28 June 1992, Landers, California earthquake, east of Los Angeles, accommodated right-lateral offsets up to about 6 m along segments of distinct, en echelon fault zones with a total length of about 80 km. The offsets were accommodated generally not by faults -- distinct slip surfaces -- but rather by shear zones, tabular bands of localized shearing. In long, straight stretches of fault zones at Landers the rupture is characterized by telescoping of shear zones and intensification of shearing: broad shear zones of mild shearing, containing narrow shear zones of more intense shearing, containing even-narrower shear zones of very intense shearing, which may contain a fault. Thus the ground ruptured across broad belts of shearing with subparallel walls, oriented NW. Each broad belt consists of a broad zone of mild shearing, extending across its entire width (50 to 200 m), and much narrower (a few m wide) shear zones that accommodate most of the offset of the belt and are portrayed by en echelon tension cracks. In response to right-lateral shearing, the slices of ground bounded by the tension cracks rotated in a clockwise sense, producing left lateral shearing, and the slices were forced against the walls of the shear zone, producing thrusting. Even narrower shear zones formed within the narrow shear zones, and some of these were faults. Although the narrower shear zones probably are indicators to right-lateral fault segments at depth, the surface rupturing during the earthquake is characterized not by faulting, but by zones of shearing at various scales. Furthermore, understanding of the formation of the shear zones may be critical to understanding of earthquake faulting because, where faulting is associated with the formation of a shear zone, the faulting occurs late in the development of the shear zone. The faulting occurs after a shear zone or a belt of shear zones forms.

  8. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: Promoting Earthquake and Tsunami Resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L. A.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2014-12-01

    In historic times, Northern California has suffered the greatest losses from tsunamis in the U.S. contiguous 48 states. 39 tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1933, including five that caused damage. This paper describes the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization formed in 1996 to address the tsunami threat from both near and far sources. It includes representatives from government agencies, public, private and volunteer organizations, academic institutions, and individuals interested in working to reduce tsunami risk. The geographic isolation and absence of scientific agencies such as the USGS and CGS in the region, and relatively frequent occurrence of both earthquakes and tsunami events has created a unique role for the RCTWG, with activities ranging from basic research to policy and education and outreach programs. Regional interest in tsunami issues began in the early 1990s when there was relatively little interest in tsunamis elsewhere in the state. As a result, the group pioneered tsunami messaging and outreach programs. Beginning in 2008, the RCTWG has partnered with the National Weather Service and the California Office of Emergency Services in conducting the annual "live code" tsunami communications tests, the only area outside of Alaska to do so. In 2009, the RCTWG joined with the Southern California Earthquake Alliance and the Bay Area Earthquake Alliance to form the Earthquake Country Alliance to promote a coordinated and consistent approach to both earthquake and tsunami preparedness throughout the state. The RCTWG has produced and promoted a variety of preparedness projects including hazard mapping and sign placement, an annual "Earthquake - Tsunami Room" at County Fairs, public service announcements and print material, assisting in TsunamiReady community recognition, and facilitating numerous multi-agency, multidiscipline coordinated exercises, and community evacuation drills. Nine assessment surveys from 1993 to 2013 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of tsunami hazards. Over the twenty-year period covered by the surveys, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 90 percent and awareness of the Cascadia subduction zone increased from 16 to 60 percent.

  9. Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

    2004-12-01

    In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and individual owners, so that they can make well-informed financial decisions.

  10. Surface fault slip associated with the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C., III; Treiman, J.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.; Ciahan, K.B.; Rosinski, A.M.; Bryant, W.A.; Snyder, H.A.; Fuis, G.S.; Toke, N.A.; Bawden, G.W.

    2006-01-01

    Surface fracturing occurred along the San Andreas fault, the subparallel Southwest Fracture Zone, and six secondary faults in association with the 28 September 2004 (M 6.0) Parkfield earthquake. Fractures formed discontinuous breaks along a 32-km-long stretch of the San Andreas fault. Sense of slip was right lateral; only locally was there a minor (1-11 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip in the first few weeks after the event, early in its afterslip period, ranged from 1 to 44 mm. Our observations in the weeks following the earthquake indicated that the highest slip values are in the Middle Mountain area, northwest of the mainshock epicenter (creepmeter measurements indicate a similar distribution of slip). Surface slip along the San Andreas fault developed soon after the mainshock; field checks in the area near Parkfield and about 5 km to the southeast indicated that surface slip developed more than 1 hr but generally less than 1 day after the event. Slip along the Southwest Fracture Zone developed coseismically and extended about 8 km. Sense of slip was right lateral; locally there was a minor to moderate (1-29 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip ranged from 1 to 41 mm. Surface slip along secondary faults was right lateral; the right-lateral component of slip ranged from 3 to 5 mm. Surface slip in the 1966 and 2004 events occurred along both the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone. In 1966 the length of ground breakage along the San Andreas fault extended 5 km longer than that mapped in 2004. In contrast, the length of ground breakage along the Southwest Fracture Zone was the same in both events, yet the surface fractures were more continuous in 2004. Surface slip on secondary faults in 2004 indicated previously unmapped structural connections between the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone, further revealing aspects of the structural setting and fault interactions in the Parkfield area.

  11. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California

    PubMed Central

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Shebalin, P. N.; Zaliapin, I. V.

    2002-01-01

    This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with “intermediate” lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic activity. Here, we look for a renormalization of these patterns that would reduce the predictive lead time from years to months. We demonstrate a combination of renormalized patterns that preceded within 1–7 months five large (M ? 6.4) strike-slip earthquakes in southeastern California since 1960. An algorithm for short-term prediction is formulated. The algorithm is self-adapting to the level of seismicity: it can be transferred without readaptation from earthquake to earthquake and from area to area. Exhaustive retrospective tests show that the algorithm is stable to variations of its adjustable elements. This finding encourages further tests in other regions. The final test, as always, should be advance prediction. The suggested algorithm has a simple qualitative interpretation in terms of deformations around a soon-to-break fault: the blocks surrounding that fault began to move as a whole. A more general interpretation comes from the phenomenon of self-similarity since our premonitory patterns retain their predictive power after renormalization to smaller spatial and temporal scales. The suggested algorithm is designed to provide a short-term approximation to an intermediate-term prediction. It remains unclear whether it could be used independently. It seems worthwhile to explore similar renormalizations for other premonitory seismicity patterns. PMID:12482945

  12. Broadband records of earthquakes in deep gold mines and a comparison with results from SAFOD, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGarr, A.; Boettcher, M.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Sell, R.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Durrheim, R.; Spottiswoode, S.; Milev, A.

    2009-01-01

    For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter Rv, where v is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6:3 m=sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4:0 m=sec.

  13. Evaluation of the response of equipment at the El Centro Steam Plant to the October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Swan, S.W.; Yanev, P.I.

    1982-01-01

    In October of 1979, the four-unit power plant at El Centro, California, experienced an earthquake of Magnitude 6.6 on the Richter scale. A ground motion record was taken at the plant site, allowing accurate estimates of the seismic motion experienced by the plant structures and the equipment contained inside. As part of a research program sponsored by the Seismic Qualification Utilities Group, a series of in-situ tests were conducted on equipment in the plant. The measurements of equipment response frequencies which resulted from the tests allowed estimates to be made of the seismic loads that the equipment experienced during the 1979 earthquake. The general resistance of the El Centro Plant equipment to these seismic loads provides data on the probable seismic capacity of similar equipment in nuclear power plants.

  14. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  15. Investigation of temporal variations in stress orientations before and after four major earthquakes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provost, Ann-Sophie; Houston, Heidi

    2003-10-01

    Orientations of the principal stresses before and after four major earthquakes in the greater San Francisco Bay Area were determined by inversions of 34 suites of focal mechanisms of about 1500 small earthquakes recorded by the Northern California Seismic Network over three decades. Stress orientations are expected to rotate due to the release of shear stress in a major earthquake. The degree of rotation can place some constraints on the ambient level of stress in the crust surrounding the mainshock. For the four earthquakes studied here, the 1986 Mt. Lewis, 1984 Morgan Hill, 1979 Coyote Lake, and 1989 Loma Prieta events, modest rotations of the maximum compressive stress SH to a higher angle (i.e., an orientation closer to fault-normal) appear to occur at the time of the mainshock. In some cases, SH eventually rotates back towards its original orientation. However, due to relatively large uncertainties obtained on the stress orientations, the constraints that can be inferred on the absolute levels of stress surrounding the mainshock regions are rather weak. By considering the largest stress change permitted by the confidence limits, we obtain lower bounds on the background deviatoric stress of 3-12 MPa, levels only slightly greater than the mainshock static stress drops.

  16. Analysis of Foreshock Sequences in California and Implications for Earthquake Triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaowei; Shearer, Peter M.

    2015-05-01

    We analyze foreshock activity in California and compare observations with simulated catalogs based on a branching aftershock-triggering model. We first examine foreshock occurrence patterns for isolated M ? 5 earthquakes in southern California from 1981 to 2011 and in northern California from 1984 to 2009. Among the 64 M ? 5 mainshocks, excluding 3 swarms and 3 doubles, 53 % of the rest are preceded by at least one foreshock within 30 days and 5 km. Foreshock occurrence appears correlated with mainshock faulting type and depth. Foreshock area is correlated with the magnitude of the largest foreshock and the number of foreshocks, however, it is not correlated with mainshock magnitude. We then examine the occurrence pattern of all seismicity clusters without a minimum magnitude requirement, and the possibility that they are "foreshocks" of larger mainshocks. Only about 30 % of the small clusters lead to a larger cluster. About 66 % of the larger clusters have foreshock activities, and the spatial distribution pattern is similar to M ? 5 mainshocks, with lower occurrence rates in the Transverse Range and central California and higher occurrence rates in the Eastern California Shear Zone and the Bay Area. These results suggest that foreshock occurrence is largely controlled by the regional tectonic stress field and fault zone properties. In special cases, foreshock occurrence may be useful for short-term forecasting; however, foreshock properties are not reliably predictive of the magnitude of the eventual "mainshock". Comparison with simulated catalogs suggest that the "swarmy" features and foreshock occurrence rate in the observed catalogs are not well reproduced from common statistical models of earthquake triggering.

  17. Cruise report for A1-00-SC southern California earthquake hazards project, part A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutmacher, Christina E.; Normark, William R.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Edwards, Brian D.; Sliter, Ray; Hart, Patrick; Cooper, Becky; Childs, Jon; Reid, Jane A.

    2000-01-01

    A three-week cruise to obtain high-resolution boomer and multichannel seismic-reflection profiles supported two project activities of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) evaluating the earthquake and related geologic hazards posed by faults in the near offshore area of southern California and (2) determining the pathways through which sea-water is intruding into aquifers of Los Angeles County in the area of the Long Beach and Los Angeles harbors. The 2000 cruise, A1-00-SC, is the third major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b); one more cruise is planned for 2002. This report deals primarily with the shipboard operations related to the earthquake-hazard activity. The sea-water intrusion survey is confined to shallow water and the techniques used are somewhat different from that of the hazards survey (see Edwards et al., in preparation).

  18. Rupture process of the 29 May 2013 Mw 4.8 Isla Vista, California earthquake and its tectonic implication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Ji, C.

    2013-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Channel is one of the most seismically active regions in southern California as the result of roughly north-south compressive deformation associating with the Western Transverse Range. On 29 May 2013, a Mw 4.8 earthquake occurred at a depth of 10 km beneath the north Santa Barbara Channel, about 5 km west offshore of the Isla Vista, California. This Isla Vista earthquake is the largest earthquake in the Santa Barbara region after the 1978 ML 5.1 (Mw 5.9) Santa Barbara earthquake. The large historic earthquake also includes the catastrophic 1925 ML 6.8 Santa Barbara earthquake. However, the causative fault planes of these two earthquakes are still debated, presumably due to their limited observations. The analysis to the Isla Vista earthquake then shall shed light on the potential large-magnitude thrust earthquakes in this region. The CISN focal mechanism and the distribution of relocated aftershocks suggest that the 2013 Isla Vista earthquake is a pure thrust failure on a north dipping low angle (~30°) fault plane orienting N287°E, consistent with the local tectonic setting. The Isla Vista earthquake is well recorded by CISN and CGS strong motion stations. Eight of them locating within 20 km away from the epicenter. The observed peak ground acceleration is 0.265 g. A finite fault analysis with this dataset is being conducted to constrain its slip distribution. The preliminary analysis using just local P wave observations reveals a compact slip distribution on a low angle fault plane with a slightly larger fault dip of 37°.

  19. CSMIP (California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program) strong-motion records from the Santa Cruz Mountains (Loma Prieta), California earthquake of 17 October 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Shakal, A.; Reichle, M.; Ventura, C.; Cao, T.; Sherburne, R.; Savage, M.; Darragh, R.; Petersen, C.

    1990-01-01

    Strong-motion records were recovered from 93 stations of the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) after the earthquake. CSMIP provides information on the force of ground motion and the deformation induced in structures and in rock and soil by earthquake-generated ground motion. This information is recorded by strong-motion sensors placed in engineered structures and at free field (ground) sites, and is used by earthquake engineers and earth scientists to improve the design of earthquake-resistant structures. The strong-motion instrumentation program was established after the San Fernando earthquake in 1971. A total of 125 records were recovered from the 93 CSMIP stations which recorded the Loma Prieta event. These 125 records contain data from a total of 690 strong-motion sensors. These data are important because of the unique structures and sites at which records were obtained during this event. Some highlights of particular interest are included in this paper.

  20. Basin Waves on a Seafloor Recording of the 1990 Upland, California, Earthquake: Implications for Ground Motions from a Larger Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.

    1999-01-01

    The velocity and displacement time series from a recording on the seafloor at 74 km from the 1990 Upland earthquake (M = 5.6) are dominated by late-arriving waves with periods of 6 to 7 sec. These waves are probably surface waves traveling across the Los Angeles basin. Response spectra for the recording are in agreement with predictions from empirical regression equations and theoretical models for periods less than about 1 sec but are significantly larger than those predictions for longer periods. The longer-period spectral amplitudes are controlled by the late-arriving waves, which are not included in the theoretical models and are underrepresented in the data used in the empirical analyses. When the motions are scaled to larger magnitude, the results are in general agreement with simulations of wave propagation in the Los Angeles basin by Graves (1998).

  1. The 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    We test the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions by examining the relationship between two large earthquakes that occurred in the Mojave Desert of southern California, the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. We want to determine if the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake occurred at a location where the Coulomb stress was increased (earthquake advance, stress trigger) or decreased (earthquake delay, stress shadow) by the previous large earthquake. Using four models of the Landers rupture and a range of possible hypocentral planes for the Hector Mine earthquake, we discover that most scenarios yield a Landers-induced relaxation (stress shadow) on the Hector Mine hypocentral plane. Although this result would seem to weigh against the stress shadow hypothesis, the results become considerably more uncertain when the effects of a nearby Landers aftershock, the 1992 ML 5.4 Pisgah earthquake, are taken into account. We calculate the combined static Coulomb stress changes due to the Landers and Pisgah earthquakes to range from -0.3 to +0.3 MPa (- 3 to +3 bars) at the possible Hector Mine hypocenters, depending on choice of rupture model and hypocenter. These varied results imply that the Hector Mine earthquake does not provide a good test of the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions. We use a simple approach, that of static dislocations in an elastic half-space, yet we still obtain a wide range of both negative and positive Coulomb stress changes. Our findings serve as a caution that more complex models purporting to explain the triggering or shadowing relationship between the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes need to also consider the parametric and geometric uncertainties raised here.

  2. GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

  3. Investigating earthquake cycle vertical deformation recorded by GPS and regional tide gauge stations in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, S.; Konter, B.

    2013-12-01

    Geodetic and tide gauge measurements of vertical deformation record localized zones of uplift and subsidence that may document critical components of both long and short-period earthquake cycle deformation. In this study, we compare vertical tide gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and vertical GPS data from the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) for 10 approximately co-located station pairs along coastal California from Point Reyes, CA to Ensenada, Mexico. To compare these two datasets, we first truncate both datasets so that they span a common time frame for all stations (2007 - 2012). PSMSL data are treated for both average global sea level rise (~1.8 mm/yr) and global isostatic adjustment. We then calculate a 2-month running mean for tide gauge and a 1-month running mean for GPS datasets to smooth out daily oceanographic or anthropologic disturbances but maintain the overall trend of each dataset. As major ocean-climate signals, such as El Nino, are considered regional features of the Pacific Ocean and likely common to all California tide gauge stations, we subtract a reference sea level record (San Francisco station) from all other stations to eliminate this signal. The GPS and tide gauge data show varying degrees of correlation spanning both 3-month and 4-year time-scales. We infer that the slope of vertical displacements are largely controlled by interseismic motions, however displacements from major earthquakes are evident and are required to explain some of the unique signatures in the tide gauge and GPS data. Specifically, we find that stations from both datasets in Southern California show an anomalous trend since the 2010 Baja California earthquake. To further investigate this trend and others, we compare these data to vertical motions estimated by a suite of 3-D viscoelastic earthquake cycle deformation models. Long-term tide gauge time series are well simulated by the models, but short-term time series are not as well predicted; additional parameter adjustments are needed to improve these. Alternatively, both tide gauge and GPS data show a better short-term than long-term correlation; oceanographic and possibly groundwater effects could be responsible for these differences.

  4. Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

    1996-01-01

    A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

  5. A Strong Stress Shadow Effect from the 1992 M=7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toda, S.; Stein, R. S.; Beroza, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    Both dynamic and static stress have the potential to trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock. It has, however, proven extraordinarily difficult to disentangle their contribution to aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. There are nevertheless ways to discriminate between the two: Only dynamic stress can trigger quakes in the far field (tens of rupture dimensions from the source), and only static stress has an identified physical mechanism to produce stress shadows, areas where the stress is calculated to have dropped. The seismicity rate would be expected to drop in the stress shadows, and so they provide a key falsification test of the static stress hypothesis, and thus have been subject to intensive investigation and debate. Here we show that where the April 1992 Mw=6.1 Joshua Tree, California, aftershock zone was subjected to a static stress increase from the June 1992 Mw=7.3 Landers earthquake, the rate of aftershocks jumped, and where the aftershock zone was subjected to a static stress decrease on the likely earthquake nodal planes, seismicity abruptly shut down. This stress shadow interaction was first noted by Zanzerkia (Stanford Univ. Ph.D. thesis, 2003), and was subsequently investigated by Marsan and Nalbant (PAGEOPH, 2005); we have deepened these analyses by carrying out a systematic search of the source, receiver, and focal mechanism diversity, and a time and space study of catalog completeness. The sudden arrest of seismicity in the Joshua Tree aftershock zone upon the Landers earthquake demonstrates that static stress is a requisite—but not necessarily exclusive—element of earthquake triggering.

  6. Preseismic and coseismic magnetic field measurements near the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake of August 6, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mueller, R.J.; Keller, V.

    1981-02-10

    The epicenter of the Coyote Lake earthquake (M/sub L/ = 5.9 +- 0.2) of August 6, 1979, is located within an array of recording magnetometers which has been in operation since 1974. The nearest instrument, COY, was within 5 km of the epicenter. It was installed in October 1978 and is located on sedimentary rock, although volcanic and ultramafic rocks with magnetizations of up to 1 A/m outcrop 2 km to the west. A second recording magnetometer was operated for 18 days, beginning 4 days after the main event, to record the latter stages of the aftershock activity. Although longer-term magnetic field variations were recorded at station COY early in 1979 relative to other sites in the area, no anomalous changes within the two months prior to the earthquake were obeserved outside the present measurement uncertainty of 0.8 nT for hourly average differences. During the late aftershock stage, no magnetic field change greater than 0.25 nT occurred for more than a day. We conclude that in contrast to the 2-nT change observed before a previous M = 5.2 earthquake near Hollister, California, no demonstrable preseismic, coseismic, or postseismic tectonomagnetic effect was detected. A reasonable seismomagnetic model of the earthquake indicates that station COY was poorly located to detect stress-generated magnetic perturbations from this earthquake. Using a magnetization distribution indicated by modeling the aeromagnetic data over the area, we have calculated that homogeneous shear stress changes of about 5 MPa or greater would have been necessary to produce any observable effect at COY. This change is stress is precluded by geodetic data from over the area. However, COY is ideally situated for detection of electrokinetically generated magnetic anomalies. This initial null observation indicates that the assumptions used in the calculation of electrokinetic effects have, in this case, not been satisfied.

  7. Introducing ShakeMap to potential users in Puerto Rico using scenarios of damaging historical and probable earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huerfano, V. A.; Cua, G.; von Hillebrandt, C.; Saffar, A.

    2007-12-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has a long history of damaging earthquakes. Major earthquakes from off-shore sources have affected Puerto Rico in 1520, 1615, 1670, 1751, 1787, 1867, and 1918 (Mueller et al, 2003; PRSN Catalogue). Recent trenching has also yielded evidence of possible M7.0 events inland (Prentice, 2000). The high seismic hazard, large population, high tsunami potential and relatively poor construction practice can result in a potentially devastating combination. Efficient emergency response in event of a large earthquake will be crucial to minimizing the loss of life and disruption of lifeline systems in Puerto Rico. The ShakeMap system (Wald et al, 2004) developed by the USGS to rapidly display and disseminate information about the geographical distribution of ground shaking (and hence potential damage) following a large earthquake has proven to be a vital tool for post earthquake emergency response efforts, and is being adopted/emulated in various seismically active regions worldwide. Implementing a robust ShakeMap system is among the top priorities of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. However, the ultimate effectiveness of ShakeMap in post- earthquake response depends not only on its rapid availability, but also on the effective use of the information it provides. We developed ShakeMap scenarios of a suite of damaging historical and probable earthquakes that severely impact San Juan, Ponce, and Mayagüez, the 3 largest cities in Puerto Rico. Earthquake source parameters were obtained from McCann and Mercado (1998); and Huérfano (2004). For historical earthquakes that generated tsunamis, tsunami inundation maps were generated using the TIME method (Shuto, 1991). The ShakeMap ground shaking maps were presented to local and regional governmental and emergency response agencies at the 2007 Annual conference of the Puerto Rico Emergency Management and Disaster Administration in San Juan, PR, and at numerous other emergency management talks and training sessions. Economic losses are estimated using the ShakeMap scenario ground motions (Saffar, 2007). The calibration tasks necessary in generating these scenarios (developing Vs30 maps, attenuation relationships) complement the on-going efforts of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network to generate ShakeMaps in real-time.

  8. Web Services and Data Enhancements at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Lombard, P. N.; Allen, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC offers the following web services that are compliant with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services specifications: (1) fdsn-dataselect: time series data delivered in MiniSEED format, (2) fdsn-station: station and channel metadata and time series availability delivered in StationXML format, (3) fdsn-event: earthquake event information delivered in QuakeML format. In addition, the NCEDC offers the the following IRIS-compatible web services: (1) sacpz: provide channel gains, poles, and zeros in SAC format, (2) resp: provide channel response information in RESP format, (3) dataless: provide station and channel metadata in Dataless SEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a web service to deliver timeseries from pre-assembled event waveform gathers. The NCEDC has waveform gathers for ~750,000 northern and central California events from 1984 to the present, many of which were created by the USGS NCSN prior to the establishment of the joint NCSS (Northern California Seismic System). We are currently adding waveforms to these older event gathers with time series from the UCB networks and other networks with waveforms archived at the NCEDC, and ensuring that the waveform for each channel in the event gathers have the highest quality waveform from the archive.

  9. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 96, No. 5, pp. 16241633, October 2006, doi: 10.1785/0120050195 Methodologies for Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Model Uncertainty

    E-print Network

    Carlson, Jean

    by the 2002 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP-2002) to combine the prob- ability). Nevertheless, it is prevalent in PSHA and must be handled properly. The 2002 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP-2002, Working Group, or WG02) dif- fered from previous reports

  10. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel time of the seismic waves to the nearest station and will increase the reliability of the early warning with multiple measurements from more than one reporting station. * New server hardware: will allow for separate software development, testing/integration of algorithms and production systems capable of testing with current as well as playback of historical data. Also the new systems will be used to develop and test new EEW algorithms like slip detection (GPSlip) and Finite-Fault Rupture Detection (FinDer). * Standardization and Security: the new systems will allow us to standardize on hardware installation and configuration procedures. It will also enable us to implement the latest computer and network security measures to secure the data and internal processing from malicious threats. * System architecture: the new hardware will allow us to port existing EEW algorithms from Solaris to Linux. The new equipment will also allow us to experiment with different system architecture configurations like redundant servers with fail-over capabilities for the production EEW system. When installed the new and upgraded seismic dataloggers and GPS stations as well as the new server hardware will greatly improve the EEW capabilities of the SCSN network and the CISN ShakeAlert system in general providing more resilience, robustness and redundancy in the system.

  11. Holocene paleoseismicity, temporal clustering, and probabilities of future large (M > 7) earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCalpin, J.P.; Nishenko, S.P.

    1996-01-01

    The chronology of M>7 paleoearthquakes on the central five segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) is one of the best dated in the world and contains 16 earthquakes in the past 5600 years with an average repeat time of 350 years. Repeat times for individual segments vary by a factor of 2, and range from about 1200 to 2600 years. Four of the central five segments ruptured between ??? 620??30 and 1230??60 calendar years B.P. The remaining segment (Brigham City segment) has not ruptured in the past 2120??100 years. Comparison of the WFZ space-time diagram of paleoearthquakes with synthetic paleoseismic histories indicates that the observed temporal clusters and gaps have about an equal probability (depending on model assumptions) of reflecting random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion. Regional seismicity suggests that for exposure times of 50 and 100 years, the probability for an earthquake of M>7 anywhere within the Wasatch Front region, based on a Poisson model, is 0.16 and 0.30, respectively. A fault-specific WFZ model predicts 50 and 100 year probabilities for a M>7 earthquake on the WFZ itself, based on a Poisson model, as 0.13 and 0.25, respectively. In contrast, segment-specific earthquake probabilities that assume quasi-periodic recurrence behavior on the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments are less (0.01-0.07 in 100 years) than the regional or fault-specific estimates (0.25-0.30 in 100 years), due to the short elapsed times compared to average recurrence intervals on those segments. The Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, however, have time-dependent probabilities that approach or exceed the regional and fault specific probabilities. For the Salt Lake City segment, these elevated probabilities are due to the elapsed time being approximately equal to the average late Holocene recurrence time. For the Brigham City segment, the elapsed time is significantly longer than the segment-specific late Holocene recurrence time.

  12. Reply to “Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?” From A.D. Frankel”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, Seth; Tomasello, Joseph; Newman, Andrew

    Carl Sagan observed that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” In our view, A.D. Frankel's arguments (see accompanying Comment piece) do not reach the level required to demonstrate the counter-intuitive propositions that the earthquake hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comparable to that in coastal California, and that buildings should be built to similar standards.This interchange is the latest in an ongoing debate beginning with Newman et al.'s [1999a] recommendation, based on analysis of Global Positioning System and earthquake data, that Frankel et al.'s [1996] estimate of California-level seismic hazard for the NMSZ should be reduced. Most points at issue, except for those related to the costs and benefits of the proposed new International Building Code 2000, have already been argued at length by both sides in the literature [e.g.,Schweig et al., 1999; Newman et al., 1999b, 2001; Cramer, 2001]. Hence,rather than rehash these points, we will try here to provide readers not enmeshed in this morass with an overview of the primary differences between our view and that of Frankel.

  13. Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David; Trugman, Daniel; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan; Johnson, Paul

    2015-08-01

    Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ˜730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

  14. A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rundle, John B.

    1988-01-01

    The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

  15. Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goff, John A.; Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1987-01-01

    The source parameters of 19 large earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from inversions of long-period P and SH waveforms. The goal was to understand the recent slip history of this dominantly transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates as well as the effect on earthquake characteristics of the transition from young oceanic to continental lithosphere. For the better recorded transform events, the fault strike is resolved to + or - 4 deg at 90 percent confidence. The slip vectors thus provide important constraints on the direction of relative plate motion. Most centroid depths are poorly resolved because of tradeoffs between depth and source time function. On the basis of waveform modeling, historical seismicity, and other factors, it is appropriate to divide the Gulf into three distinct zones. The difference in seismic character among the three zones is likely the result of differing levels of maturity of the processes of rifting, generation of oceanic crust, and formation of stable oceanic transform faults. The mechanism of an earthquake on the Tres Marias Escarpment is characterized by thrust faulting and likely indicates the direction of relative motion between the Rivera and North American plates. This mechanism requires revision in plate velocity models which predict strike slip motion at this location.

  16. Crustal velocities near Coalinga, California, modeled from a combined earthquake/explosion refraction profile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Macgregor-Scott, N.; Walter, A.

    1988-01-01

    Crustal velocity structure for the region near Coalinga, California, has been derived from both earthquake and explosion seismic phase data recorded along a NW-SE seismic-refraction profile on the western flank of the Great Valley east of the Diablo Range. Comparison of the two data sets reveals P-wave phases in common which can be correlated with changes in the velocity structure below the earthquake hypocenters. In addition, the earthquake records reveal secondary phases at station ranges of less than 20 km that could be the result of S- to P-wave conversions at velocity interfaces above the earthquake hypocenters. Two-dimensional ray-trace modeling of the P-wave travel times resulted in a P-wave velocity model for the western flank of the Great Valley comprised of: 1) a 7- to 9-km thick section of sedimentary strata with velocities similar to those found elsewhere in the Great Valley (1.6 to 5.2 km s-1); 2) a middle crust extending to about 14 km depth with velocities comparable to those reported for the Franciscan assemblage in the Diablo Range (5.6 to 5.9 km s-1); and 3) a 13- to 14-km thick lower crust with velocities similar to those reported beneath the Diablo Range and the Great Valley (6.5 to 7.30 km s-1). This lower crust may have been derived from subducted oceanic crust that was thickened by accretionary underplating or crustal shortening. -Authors

  17. Satellite IR Thermal Measurements Prior to the September 2004 Earthquakes in Central California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ouzounov, D.; Logan, T.; Taylor, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    We present and discuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of September 18 near Bodie (M5.5) and September 28,2004 near Parkfield(M6.0) in California. Previous analysis of earthquake events have indicated the presence of a thermal anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. The procedures used in our work is to analyze weather satellite data taken at night and to record the general condition where the ground cools after sunset. Two days before the Bodie earthquake lower temperature radiation was observed by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite. This occurred when the entire region was relatively cloud-free. IR land surface nighttime temperature from the MODIS instrument rose to +4 C in a 100 km radius around the Bodie epicenter. The thermal transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +l C and it is significantly smaller than the Parkfield epicenter, however, for that period showed a steady increase 4 days prior to the earthquake and a significant drop of the night before the quake. Geosynchronous weather satellite thermal IR measurements taken every half hour from sunset to dawn, were also recorded for 10 days prior to the Parkfield event and 5 days after as well as the day of the quake. To establish a baseline we also obtained GOES data for the same Julian sets were then used to systematically observe and record any thermal anomaly prior to the events that deviated from the baseline. Our recent results support the hypothesis of a possible relationship between an thermodynamic processes produced by increasing tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and a subsequent electro-chemical interaction between this crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

  18. Earthquake geology of the northern San Andreas Fault near Point Arena, California

    SciTech Connect

    Prentice, C.S.

    1989-01-01

    Excavations into a Holocene alluvial fan provided exposures of a record of prehistoric earthquakes near Point Arena, California. At least five earthquakes were recognized in the section. All of these occurred since the deposition of a unit that is approximately 2000 years old. Radiocarbon dating allows constraints to be placed on the dates of these earthquakes. A buried Holocene (2356-2709 years old) channel has been offset a maximum of 64 {plus minus} 2 meters. This implies a maximum slip rate of 25.5 {plus minus} 2.5 mm/yr. These data suggest that the average recurrence interval for great earthquakes on this segment of the San Andreas fault is long - between about 200 and 400 years. Offset marine terrace risers near Point Arena and an offset landslide near Fort Ross provide estimates of the average slip rate since Late Pleistocene time. Near Fort Ross, an offset landslide implies a slip rate of less than 39 mm/yr. Correlation and age estimates of two marine terrace risers across the San Andreas fault near Point Arena suggest slip rates of about 18-19 mm/yr since Late Pleistocene time. Tentative correlation of the Pliocene Ohlson Ranch Formation in northwestern Sonoma County with deposits 50 km to the northwest near Point Arean, provides piercing points to use in calculation of a Pliocene slip rate for the northern San Andreas fault. A fission-track age 3.3 {plus minus} 0.8 Ma was determined for zicrons separated from a tuff collected from the Ohlson Ranch Formation. The geomorphology of the region, especially of the two major river drainages, supports the proposed 50 km Pliocene offset. This implies a Pliocene slip rate of at least 12-20 mm/yr. These rates for different time periods imply that much of the Pacific-North American plate motion must be accommodated on other structures at this latitude.

  19. Source processes of industrially-induced earthquakes at the Geysers geothermal area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1999-01-01

    Microearthquake activity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, mirrors the steam production rate, suggesting that the earthquakes are industrially induced. A 15-station network of digital, three-component seismic stations was operated for one month in 1991, and 3,900 earthquakes were recorded. Highly-accurate moment tensors were derived for 30 of the best recorded earthquakes by tracing rays through tomographically derived 3-D VP and VP / VS structures, and inverting P-and S-wave polarities and amplitude ratios. The orientations of the P-and T-axes are very scattered, suggesting that there is no strong, systematic deviatoric stress field in the reservoir, which could explain why the earthquakes are not large. Most of the events had significant non-double-couple (non-DC) components in their source mechanisms with volumetric components up to ???30% of the total moment. Explosive and implosive sources were observed in approximately equal numbers, and must be caused by cavity creation (or expansion) and collapse. It is likely that there is a causal relationship between these processes and fluid reinjection and steam withdrawal. Compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) components were up to 100% of the deviatoric component. Combinations of opening cracks and shear faults cannot explain all the observations, and rapid fluid flow may also be involved. The pattern of non-DC failure at The Geysers contrasts with that of the Hengill-Grensdalur area in Iceland, a largely unexploited water-dominated field in an extensional stress regime. These differences are poorly understood but may be linked to the contrasting regional stress regimes and the industrial exploitation at The Geysers.

  20. Rates and patterns of surface deformation from laser scanning following the South Napa earthquake, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeLong, Stephen B.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Pickering, Alexandra J; Avdievitch, Nikita N.

    2015-01-01

    The A.D. 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, despite its moderate magnitude, caused significant damage to the Napa Valley in northern California (USA). Surface rupture occurred along several mapped and unmapped faults. Field observations following the earthquake indicated that the magnitude of postseismic surface slip was likely to approach or exceed the maximum coseismic surface slip and as such presented ongoing hazard to infrastructure. Using a laser scanner, we monitored postseismic deformation in three dimensions through time along 0.5 km of the main surface rupture. A key component of this study is the demonstration of proper alignment of repeat surveys using point cloud–based methods that minimize error imposed by both local survey errors and global navigation satellite system georeferencing errors. Using solid modeling of natural and cultural features, we quantify dextral postseismic displacement at several hundred points near the main fault trace. We also quantify total dextral displacement of initially straight cultural features. Total dextral displacement from both coseismic displacement and the first 2.5 d of postseismic displacement ranges from 0.22 to 0.29 m. This range increased to 0.33–0.42 m at 59 d post-earthquake. Furthermore, we estimate up to 0.15 m of vertical deformation during the first 2.5 d post-earthquake, which then increased by ?0.02 m at 59 d post-earthquake. This vertical deformation is not expressed as a distinct step or scarp at the fault trace but rather as a broad up-to-the-west zone of increasing elevation change spanning the fault trace over several tens of meters, challenging common notions about fault scarp development in strike-slip systems. Integrating these analyses provides three-dimensional mapping of surface deformation and identifies spatial variability in slip along the main fault trace that we attribute to distributed slip via subtle block rotation. These results indicate the benefits of laser scanner surveys along active faults and demonstrate that fine-scale variability in fault slip has been missed by traditional earthquake response methods.

  1. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project: Investigating Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuis, G. S.; Goldman, M.; Sickler, R. R.; Catchings, R. D.; Rymer, M. J.; Rose, E. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Butcher, L. A.; Cotton, J. A.; Criley, C. J.; Croker, D. S.; Emmons, I.; Ferguson, A. J.; Gardner, M. A.; Jensen, E. G.; McClearn, R.; Loughran, C. L.; Slayday-Criley, C. J.; Svitek, J. F.; Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Skinner, S. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Babcock, J. M.; Kent, G.; Kell, A. M.; Harder, S. H.

    2011-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) is a collaborative effort between academia and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide detailed, subsurface 3-D images of the Salton Trough of southern California and northern Mexico. From both active- and passive-source seismic data that were acquired both onshore and offshore (Salton Sea), the resulting images will provide insights into earthquake hazards, rift processes, and rift-transform interaction at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. The southernmost San Andreas Fault (SAF) is considered to be at high-risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet the structure of this and other regional faults and that of adjacent sedimentary basins is not currently well understood. Seismic data were acquired from 2 to 18 March 2011. One hundred and twenty-six borehole explosions (10-1400 kg yield) were detonated along seven profiles in the Salton Trough region, extending from area of Palm Springs, California, to the southwestern tip of Arizona. Airguns (1500 and 3500 cc) were fired along two profiles in the Salton Sea and at points in a 2-D array in the southern Salton Sea. Approximately 2800 seismometers were deployed at over 4200 locations throughout the Salton Trough region, and 48 ocean-bottom seismometers were deployed at 78 locations beneath the Salton Sea. Many of the onshore explosions were energetic enough to be recorded and located by the Southern California Seismograph Network. The geometry of the SAF has important implications for energy radiation in the next major rupture. Prior potential field, seismicity, and InSAR data indicate that the SAF may dip moderately to the northeast from the Salton Sea to Cajon Pass in the Transverse Ranges. Much of SSIP was designed to test models of this geometry.

  2. Fault structure and kinematics of the Long Valley Caldera region, California, revealed by high-accuracy earthquake hypocenters and

    E-print Network

    Waldhauser, Felix

    Fault structure and kinematics of the Long Valley Caldera region, California, revealed by high that occurred between 1980 and 2000 in the Long Valley caldera area using a double- difference earthquake planes in the southern caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada block (SNB). Intracaldera faults include

  3. A public health issue related to collateral seismic hazards: The valley fever outbreak triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jibson, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Following the 17 January 1994 Northridge. California earthquake (M = 6.7), Ventura County, California, experienced a major outbreak of coccidioidomycosis (CM), commonly known as valley fever, a respiratory disease contracted by inhaling airborne fungal spores. In the 8 weeks following the earthquake (24 January through 15 March), 203 outbreak-associated cases were reported, which is about an order of magnitude more than the expected number of cases, and three of these cases were fatal. Simi Valley, in easternmost Ventura County, had the highest attack rate in the county, and the attack rate decreased westward across the county. The temporal and spatial distribution of CM cases indicates that the outbreak resulted from inhalation of spore-contaminated dust generated by earthquake-triggered landslides. Canyons North East of Simi Valley produced many highly disrupted, dust-generating landslides during the earthquake and its aftershocks. Winds after the earthquake were from the North East, which transported dust into Simi Valley and beyond to communities to the West. The three fatalities from the CM epidemic accounted for 4 percent of the total earthquake-related fatalities.

  4. Robust features of the source process for the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from strong-motion seismograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twardzik, C.; Madariaga, R.; Das, S.; Custódio, S.

    2012-12-01

    We explore a recently developed procedure for kinematic inversion based on an elliptical subfault approximation. In this method, the slip is modelled by a small set of elliptical patches, each ellipse having a Gaussian distribution of slip. We invert near-field strong ground motion for the 2004 September 28 Mw 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. The data set consists of 10 digital three-component 18-s long displacement seismograms. The best model gives a moment of 1.21 × 1018 N m, with slip on two distinct ellipses, one with a high-slip amplitude of 0.91 m located 20 km northwest of the hypocentre. The average rupture speed of the rupture process is ˜2.7 km s-1. We find no slip in the top 5 km. At this depth, a lineation of small aftershocks marks the transition from creeping above to locked below, in the interseismic period. The high-slip patch coincides spatially with the hypocentre of the 1966 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake. The larger earthquakes prior to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the aftershocks of the 2004 earthquake (Mw > 3) also lie around this high-slip patch, where our model images a sharp slip gradient. This observation suggests the presence of a permanent asperity that breaks during large earthquakes, and has important implications for the slip deficit observed on the Parkfield segment, which is necessary for reliable seismic hazard assessment.

  5. California takes earthquakes very seriously. The state straddles two major tectonic plates and is subject to relatively frequent, often major, potentially devastating quakes.

    E-print Network

    California takes earthquakes very seriously. The state straddles two major tectonic plates the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. The Pacific Plate includes a sliver of California and Baja California, as well as Hawaii and most of the Pacific Ocean, while the North American Plate includes

  6. Three-dimensional fluid mapping and earthquake probabilities for induced seismicity sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.

    2010-12-01

    To stimulate the reservoir for a proposed enhanced geothermal system (EGS) project in the City of Basel, approximately 11500 m3 of water were injected at high pressures into a 5 km deep well between December 2nd and 8th, 2006. A six-sensor borehole array, installed by Geothermal Explorers Limited at depths between 50 and 2700 meters around the well to monitor the induced seismicity, recorded some 15000 events during the injection phase, more than 3500 of them locatable. The induced seismicity covers an area of about two square kilometers between 3 and 5 km depth. Water injection was stopped after a widely felt ML 3.4 event that occurred on December 8th. Here, we map in space and time statistical parameters that describe the seismicity, such as the magnitude of completeness, Mc the b- and a- value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the local probability of large events. We find that the completeness level varies from Mc= 0.5 to Mc=0.8, where the lowest completeness is observed for the shallowest seismicity. Higher b-values are located close to the initiation point of the injection at the casing shoe. With time, and with the gradual expansion of the seismicity, the b-values decrease near the edges of the seismicity cloud. The b-values range from 1.0 to above 2.0; large events occur preferentially in regions of previously low b-value. The local earthquake probabilities for a larger (M3+) event determined from the local a- and b-value show a clear correlation with the occurrence of events in this magnitude range, suggesting that by mapping the local a- and b-values, large magnitude events could be forecasted with greater accuracy than possible when using bulk values only. There are several different hypotheses how to explain induced seismicity, including increasing pore pressure, temperature decrease, volume changes and chemical alterations of fraction surfaces. All of these are linked to the fluid migration within the rock. Previously, high b-values have been shown to correlate with the presence of magma and fluids in volcanic areas and subduction zones. Additionally, b-values have been shown to be inversely proportional to the applied shear stress. Our results indicate that often-stated assumption that induced sequences are showing a high b-value is too simplistic. Rather, anomalously high values close to the casing shoe are embedded in average values further away. These zones of high b-values experience the highest changes in pore pressure, we therefore suggest a correlation between b-values and pore pressure. Towards the rim of seismicity, we find lower b-values, close to typical tectonic values, indicating that the seismicity may not primarily be caused by fluid overpressure. Based on our results, we suggest that b-values are linked to fluid migration; zones with high b-values indicate preferential fluid flow directions, zones with low b-values suggest seismicity that is not directly linked to water flow.

  7. G-larmS: An Infrastructure for Geodetic Earthquake Early Warning, applied to Northern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Integrating geodetic data into seismic earthquake early warning (EEW) is critical for accurately resolving magnitude and finite fault dimensions in the very largest earthquakes (M>7). We have developed G-larmS, the Geodetic alarm System, as part of our efforts to incorporate geodetic data into EEW for Northern California. G-larmS is an extensible geodetic EEW infrastructure that analyzes positioning time series from real-time GPS processors, such as TrackRT or RTNET. It is currently running in an operational mode at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) where we use TrackRT to produce high sample rate displacement time series for 62 GPS stations in the greater San Francisco Bay Area with 3-4 second latency. We employ a fully triangulated network scheme, which provides resiliency against an outage or telemetry loss at any individual station, for a total of 165 basestation-rover pairs. G-larmS is tightly integrated into seismic alarm systems (CISN ShakeAlert, ElarmS) as it uses their P-wave detection alarms to trigger its own processing and sends warning messages back to the ShakeAlert decision module. Once triggered, G-larmS estimates the static offset at each station pair and inputs these into an inversion for fault slip, which is updated once per second. The software architecture and clear interface definitions of this Python implementation enable straightforward extensibility and exchange of specific algorithms that operate in the individual modules. For example, multiple modeling instances can be called in parallel, each of which applying a different strategy to infer fault and magnitude information (e.g., pre-defined fault planes, full grid search, least squares inversion, etc.). This design enables, for example, quick tests, expansion and algorithm comparisons. Here, we present the setup and report results of the first months of operation in Northern California. This includes analysis of system latencies, noise, and G-larmS' response to actual events. We also test how differential positions over relatively short baselines (like those produced at the BSL) compare to absolute positions in the case of a very large earthquake. We perform this analysis using data from the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, add randomly selected real-time noise, and invert for slip along the subduction zone interface.

  8. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J., II; Zeng, Yuehua; Working Group on CA Earthquake Probabilities

    2013-01-01

    In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M?5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

  9. Rapid Determination of Event Source Parameters in Southern California for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Kanamori, H.

    2001-12-01

    The rapid increase in the number of seismic stations in earthquake prone regions, combined with the implementation of near real time data transmission technologies, provides the potential for earthquake early warning. In the absence of earthquake prediction methodologies in the foreseeable future, the rapid detection and analysis of a seismic event on its initiation, allowing the issuance of a ground motion warning of the order of seconds, is appealing. We present our efforts to design and implement such a system in southern California. The early warning systems currently operating in Mexico and Taiwan rely on significant distances (> 100 km) between the source and populated regions. In this scenario an early warning system can wait for several stations to detect an event, allowing the application of standard location and magnitude determination algorithms (a process that may take tens of seconds), and still issue a warning tens of seconds in advance of associated ground motion. The close proximity of fault zones to metropolitan areas in southern California precludes such an approach. Instead, we develop a system more similar to the UrEDAS warning system in Japan. The two event parameters needed are location and magnitude. The high density of seismic stations in southern California ( ~25 km spacing in populated areas) allows for an adequate location of events based solely on the first station to detect a P-arrival. The classical use of amplitude to determine magnitude is problematic due to its relatively high sensitivity to epicentral distance close to the source. Instead, we utilize the frequency dependence of the P-arrival to magnitude, which is less sensitive to epicentral distance. With this approach we estimate event magnitude with an accuracy of +/-1 magnitude unit using the P-arrival at one station only. As the P-arrival is recorded at additional stations, we average the magnitude estimates, which reduces the uncertainty. The event location and magnitude may then be used to estimate ground motion throughout the region using attenuation relations. Using the current TriNet infrastructure we expect to be able to reduce data transmission and analysis time sufficiently to be able to give zero to a few seconds warning prior to the onset of peak, damaging ground motion in the epicentral region. The warning time improves for locations further from the epicenter and, as the time-since-event initiation increases, the uncertainty in ground motion predictions decreases and warning messages can be updated.

  10. Frequency-magnitude statistics and spatial correlation dimensions of earthquakes at Long Valley caldera, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barton, D.J.; Foulger, G.R.; Henderson, J.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1999-01-01

    Intense earthquake swarms at Long Valley caldera in late 1997 and early 1998 occurred on two contrasting structures. The first is defined by the intersection of a north-northwesterly array of faults with the southern margin of the resurgent dome, and is a zone of hydrothermal upwelling. Seismic activity there was characterized by high b-values and relatively low values of D, the spatial fractal dimension of hypocentres. The second structure is the pre-existing South Moat fault, which has generated large-magnitude seismic activity in the past. Seismicity on this structure was characterized by low b-values and relatively high D. These observations are consistent with low-magnitude, clustered earthquakes on the first structure, and higher-magnitude, diffuse earthquakes on the second structure. The first structure is probably an immature fault zone, fractured on a small scale and lacking a well-developed fault plane. The second zone represents a mature fault with an extensive, coherent fault plane.

  11. Winnetka deformation zone: Surface expression of coactive slip on a blind fault during the Northridge earthquake sequence, California. Evidence that coactive faulting occurred in the Canoga Park, Winnetka, and Northridge areas during the 17 January 1994, Northridge, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Cruikshank, K.M.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.; Jones, R.L.

    1996-12-31

    Measurements of normalized length changes of streets over an area of 9 km{sup 2} in San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, California, define a distinctive strain pattern that may well reflect blind faulting during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Strain magnitudes are about 3 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}, locally 10{sup {minus}3}. They define a deformation zone trending diagonally from near Canoga Park in the southwest, through Winnetka, to near Northridge in the northeast. The deformation zone is about 4.5 km long and 1 km wide. The northwestern two-thirds of the zone is a belt of extension of streets, and the southeastern one-third is a belt of shortening of streets. On the northwest and southeast sides of the deformation zone the magnitude of the strains is too small to measure, less than 10{sup {minus}4}. Complete states of strain measured in the northeastern half of the deformation zone show that the directions of principal strains are parallel and normal to the walls of the zone, so the zone is not a strike-slip zone. The magnitudes of strains measured in the northeastern part of the Winnetka area were large enough to fracture concrete and soils, and the area of larger strains correlates with the area of greater damage to such roads and sidewalks. All parts of the pattern suggest a blind fault at depth, most likely a reverse fault dipping northwest but possibly a normal fault dipping southeast. The magnitudes of the strains in the Winnetka area are consistent with the strains produced at the ground surface by a blind fault plane extending to depth on the order of 2 km and a net slip on the order of 1 m, within a distance of about 100 to 500 m of the ground surface. The pattern of damage in the San Fernando Valley suggests a fault segment much longer than the 4.5 km defined by survey data in the Winnetka area. The blind fault segment may extend several kilometers in both directions beyond the Winnetka area. This study of the Winnetka area further supports observations that a large earthquake sequence can include rupture along both a main fault and nearby faults with quite different senses of slip. Faults near the main fault that approach the ground surface or cut the surface in an area have the potential of moving coactively in a major earthquake. Movement on such faults is associated with significant damage during an earthquake. The fault that produced the main Northridge shock and the faults that moved coactively in the Northridge area probably are parts of a large structure. Such interrelationships may be key to understanding earthquakes and damage caused by tectonism.

  12. Data Sets and Data Services at the Northern California Earthquake Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) houses a unique and comprehensive data archive and provides real-time services for a variety of seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern and central California. We have over 80 terabytes of continuous and event-based time series data from broadband, short-period, strong motion, and strain sensors as well as continuous and campaign GPS data at both standard and high sample rates in both raw and RINEX format. The Northen California Seismic System (NCSS), operated by UC Berkeley and USGS Menlo Park, has recorded over 890,000 events from 1984 to the present, and the NCEDC provides catalog, parametric information, moment tensors and first motion mechanisms, and time series data for these events. We also host and provide event catalogs, parametric information, and event waveforms for DOE enhanced geothermal system monitoring in northern California and Nevada. The NCEDC provides a variety of ways for users to access these data. The most recent development are web services, which provide interactive, command-line, or program-based workflow access to data. Web services use well-established server and client protocols and RESTful software architecture that allow users to easily submit queries and receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC supports all FDSN-defined web services as well as a number of IRIS-defined and NCEDC-defined services. We also continue to support older email-based and browser-based access to data. NCEDC data and web services can be found at http://www.ncedc.org and http://service.ncedc.org.

  13. The 2006 Bahía Asunción Earthquake Swarm: Seismic Evidence of Active Deformation Along the Western Margin of Baja California Sur, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munguía, Luis; Mayer, Sergio; Aguirre, Alfredo; Méndez, Ignacio; González-Escobar, Mario; Luna, Manuel

    2015-10-01

    The study of the Bahía Asunción earthquake swarm is important for two reasons. First, the earthquakes are clear evidence of present activity along the zone of deformation on the Pacific margin of Baja California. The swarm, with earthquakes of magnitude M w of up to 5.0, occurred on the coastline of the peninsula, showing that the Tosco-Abreojos zone of deformation is wider than previously thought. Second, the larger earthquakes in the swarm caused some damage and much concern in Bahía Asunción, a small town located in the zone of epicenters. We relocated the larger earthquakes with regional and/or local seismic data. Our results put the earthquake sources below the urban area of Bahía Asunción, at 40-50 km to the north of the teleseismically determined epicenters. In addition, these new locations are in the area of epicenters of many smaller events that were located with data from local temporary stations. This area trends in an E-W direction and has dimensions of approximately 15 km by 10 km. Most earthquakes had sources at depths that are between 4 and 9 km. A composite focal mechanism for the smaller earthquakes indicated right-lateral strike-slip motion and pure-normal faulting occurred during this swarm. Interestingly, the ANSS earthquake catalog of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported each one of these faulting styles for two large events of the swarm, with one of these earthquakes occurring 2 days before the other one. We associate the earthquake with strike-slip mechanism with the San Roque Fault, and the earthquake with the normal faulting style with the Asunción Fault. However, there is need of further study to verify this possible relation between the faults and the earthquakes. In addition, we recorded peak accelerations of up to 0.63g with an accelerometer installed in Bahía Asunción. At this site, an earthquake of M w 4.9 produced those high values at a distance of 4.1 km. We also used the acceleration dataset from this site to estimate the linear response of sediments lying beneath the station. The resulting average amplification function has a fundamental resonance frequency of about 5 Hz and shows amplification factors of 2-4 for motions at frequencies in the range 2-8 Hz. A comparison of this amplification function with the response of soils to shaking from larger events shows that above 20 Hz the amplification of motion in the larger events decreases relative to the weak-motion response.

  14. Slow rupture in Andaman during 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake: a probable consequence of subduction of 90°E ridge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gahalaut, V. K.; Subrahmanyam, C.; Kundu, B.; Catherine, J. K.; Ambikapathy, A.

    2010-03-01

    One of the most enigmatic features of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was the slow rupture speed and low slip on the northern part of the rupture under the Andaman region. We propose that the aseismic 90°E Ridge (NER) on the Indian Plate obliquely subducts under the Andaman frontal arc region. Though other possibilities also exist, we hypothesized that this ridge probably acted as a structural barrier influencing rupture characteristics of the earthquake. Here we present several features of the Andaman region that favour NER subduction under the region, which include (i) comparatively shallow bathymetry and trench depth, (ii) low seismicity, (iii) significant variation in the azimuths of coseismic horizontal offsets due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, (iv) lack of post-seismic afterslip on the coseismic rupture in the Andaman frontal arc region, (v) low P wave with only small decrease in S wave speed from tomographic studies, (vi) gravity anomalies on the Indian Plate indicating continuation of the ridge under the Andaman frontal arc and (vii) lack of back arc volcanoes in the Andaman region.

  15. What parts of PTSD are normal: intrusion, avoidance, or arousal? Data from the Northridge, California, earthquake.

    PubMed

    McMillen, J C; North, C S; Smith, E M

    2000-01-01

    The incidence and comorbidity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are addressed in a study of 130 Northridge, California, earthquake survivors interviewed 3 months post-disaster. Only 13% of the sample met full PTSD criteria, but 48% met both the re-experiencing and the arousal symptom criteria, without meeting the avoidance and numbing symptom criterion. Psychiatric comorbidity was associated mostly with avoidance and numbing symptoms. For moderately severe traumatic events, re-experiencing and arousal symptoms may be the most "normal," and survivors with a history of psychiatric problems may be those most likely to develop full PTSD. A system that considers people who meet all three symptom criteria to have a psychiatric disorder yet recognizes the distress of other symptomatic survivors may best serve traumatized populations. PMID:10761174

  16. Aftershocks of the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake of August 6, 1979: A detailed study

    SciTech Connect

    Reasenberg, P.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    1982-12-10

    Aftershock hypocenters and focal mechanism solutions for the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake reveal a geometrically complex fault structure, consisting of multiple slip surfaces. The faulting surface principally consists of two right stepping en echelon, northwest trending, partially overlapping, nearly vertical sheets and is similar in geometry to a slip surface inferred for the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake. The overlap occurs near a prominent bend in the surface trace of the Calaveras fault at San Felipe Lake. Slip during the main rupture, as inferred from the distribution of early aftershocks, appears to have been confined to a 14-km portion of the northeastern sheet between 4- and 10-km depth. Focal mechanisms and the hypocentral distribution of aftershocks suggest that the main rupture surface itself is geometrically complex, with left stepping imbricate structure. Seismic shear displacement on the southwestern slip surface commenced some 5 hours after the mainshock. Aftershocks in this zone define a single vertical plane 8 km long between 3- and 7-km depth. Within the overlap zone between the two main slip surfaces, the average strike of aftershock nodal planes is significantly rotated clockwise relative to the strike of the fault zone, in close agreement with the stress perturbations predicted by crack interaction models. Aftershock activity in the overlap zone is not associated with a simple dislocation surface. Space and time clustering within the entire aftershock set suggest an alternation of seismic displacement between the component parts of the fault zone. This alternation is consistent with local stress perturbations predicted by crack interaction models. We conclude that the fault structure is geometrically complex and that the displacements that occur on its component surfaces during the aftershock process dynamically interact by generating perturbations in the local stress field which, in turn, control the displacements.

  17. Overview of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) Time-Independent Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, E. H.; Arrowsmith, R.; Biasi, G. P.; Bird, P.; Dawson, T. E.; Felzer, K. R.; Jackson, D. D.; Johnson, K. M.; Jordan, T. H.; Madugo, C. M.; Michael, A. J.; Milner, K. R.; Page, M. T.; Parsons, T.; Powers, P.; Shaw, B. E.; Thatcher, W. R.; Weldon, R. J.; Zeng, Y.

    2013-12-01

    We present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), where the primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and include multi-fault ruptures, both limitations of UCERF2. The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level 'grand inversion' that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (e.g., magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M?5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded due to lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (e.g., constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 over-prediction of M6.5-7 earthquake rates, and also includes types of multi-fault ruptures seen in nature. While UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

  18. Comparison of four moderate-size earthquakes in southern California using seismology and InSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mellors, R.J.; Magistrale, H.; Earle, P.; Cogbill, A.H.

    2004-01-01

    Source parameters determined from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and from seismic data are compared from four moderate-size (less than M 6) earthquakes in southern California. The goal is to verify approximate detection capabilities of InSAR, assess differences in the results, and test how the two results can be reconciled. First, we calculated the expected surface deformation from all earthquakes greater than magnitude 4 in areas with available InSAR data (347 events). A search for deformation from the events in the interferograms yielded four possible events with magnitudes less than 6. The search for deformation was based on a visual inspection as well as cross-correlation in two dimensions between the measured signal and the expected signal. A grid-search algorithm was then used to estimate focal mechanism and depth from the InSAR data. The results were compared with locations and focal mechanisms from published catalogs. An independent relocation using seismic data was also performed. The seismic locations fell within the area of the expected rupture zone for the three events that show clear surface deformation. Therefore, the technique shows the capability to resolve locations with high accuracy and is applicable worldwide. The depths determined by InSAR agree with well-constrained seismic locations determined in a 3D velocity model. Depth control for well-imaged shallow events using InSAR data is good, and better than the seismic constraints in some cases. A major difficulty for InSAR analysis is the poor temporal coverage of InSAR data, which may make it impossible to distinguish deformation due to different earthquakes at the same location.

  19. Evidence of shallow fault zone strengthening after the 1992 M7.5 landers, california, earthquake

    PubMed

    Li; Vidale; Aki; Xu; Burdette

    1998-01-01

    Repeated seismic surveys of the Landers, California, fault zone that ruptured in the magnitude (M) 7.5 earthquake of 1992 reveal an increase in seismic velocity with time. P, S, and fault zone trapped waves were excited by near-surface explosions in two locations in 1994 and 1996, and were recorded on two linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the Johnson Valley fault trace. The travel times of P and S waves for identical shot-receiver pairs decreased by 0.5 to 1.5 percent from 1994 to 1996, with the larger changes at stations located within the fault zone. These observations indicate that the shallow Johnson Valley fault is strengthening after the main shock, most likely because of closure of cracks that were opened by the 1992 earthquake. The increase in velocity is consistent with the prevalence of dry over wet cracks and with a reduction in the apparent crack density near the fault zone by approximately 1.0 percent from 1994 to 1996. PMID:9422692

  20. A Double-difference Earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2000-01-01

    We have developed an efficient method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations over large distances. The location method incorporates ordinary absolute travel-time measurements and/or cross-correlation P-and S-wave differential travel-time measurements. Residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences (or double-differences) are minimized for pairs of earthquakes at each station while linking together all observed event-station pairs. A least-squares solution is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs. The double-difference algorithm minimizes errors due to unmodeled velocity structure without the use of station corrections. Because catalog and cross-correlation data are combined into one system of equations, interevent distances within multiplets are determined to the accuracy of the cross-correlation data, while the relative locations between multiplets and uncorrelated events are simultaneously determined to the accuracy of the absolute travel-time data. Statistical resampling methods are used to estimate data accuracy and location errors. Uncertainties in double-difference locations are improved by more than an order of magnitude compared to catalog locations. The algorithm is tested, and its performance is demonstrated on two clusters of earthquakes located on the northern Hayward fault, California. There it colapses the diffuse catalog locations into sharp images of seismicity and reveals horizontal lineations of hypocenter that define the narrow regions on the fault where stress is released by brittle failure.

  1. Rupture propagation of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from observations at the UPSAR

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fletcher, Joe B.; Spudich, P.; Baker, L.M.

    2006-01-01

    Using a short-baseline seismic array (U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Dense Seismograph Array [UPSAR]) about 12 km west of the rupture initiation of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, we have observed the movement of the rupture front of this earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The sources of high-frequency arrivals at UPSAR, which we use to identify the rupture front, are mapped onto the San Andreas fault using their apparent velocity and back azimuth. Measurements of apparent velocity and back azimuth are calibrated using aftershocks, which have a compact source and known location. Aftershock back azimuths show considerable lateral refraction, consistent with a high-velocity ridge on the southwest side of the fault. We infer that the initial mainshock rupture velocity was approximately the Rayleigh speed (with respect to slower side of the fault), and the rupture then slowed to about 0.66?? near the town of Parkfield after 2 sec. The last well-correlated pulse, 4 sec after S, is the largest at UPSAR, and its source is near the region of large accelerations recorded by strong-motion accelerographs and close to northern extent of continuous surface fractures on the southwest fracture zone. Coincidence of sources with preshock and aftershock distributions suggests fault material properties control rupture behavior. High-frequency sources approximately correlate with the edges of asperities identified as regions of high slip derived from inversion of strong-motion waveforms.

  2. Surface faulting near Livermore, California, associated with the January 1980 earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bonilla, Manuel G.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Tinsley, John C., III

    1980-01-01

    The earthquakes of 24 January (Ms 5.8) 1980 north of Livermore, California, and 26 January (Ms 5.2), were accompanied by surface faulting in the Greenville fault zone and apparently in the Las Positas fault zone also. The surface faulting was discontinuous and of small displacement. The main rupture within the Greenville fault zone trended about N.38°W. It was at least 4.2 km long and may have extended southward to Interstate Highway 580, giving a possible length of 6.2 km; both of these lengths included more gaps than observed surface rupture. Maximum displacements measured by us were about 25 mm of right slip (including afterslip through 28 January); vertical components of as much as 50 mm were seen locally, but these included gravity effects of unknown amount. The main break within the Greenville fault zones is very close to a fault strand mapped by Herd (1977, and unpublished data). A subsidiary break within the Greenville fault zone was about 0.5 km. long, had a general trend of N.46°W., and lay 0.12 to 0.25 km east of the main break. It was characterized by extension of as much as 40 mm and right slip of as much as 20 mm. This break was no more than 25 m from a fault mapped by Herd (unpublished data). Another break within the Greenville fault zone lay about 0.3 km southwest of the projection of the main break and trended about N33°W. It was at least 0.3 km long and showed mostly extension, but at several places a right-lateral component (up to 5 mm) was seen. This break was 80 to 100 m from a strand of the Greenville fault mapped by Herd (1977). Extensional fractures within the Greenville fault zone on the frontage roads north and south of Interstate Highway 580 may be related to regional extension or other processes, but do not seem to have resulted from faulting of the usual kind. One exception in this group is a fracture at the east side of Livermore valley which showed progressive increase in right-lateral displacement in February and March, 1980, and is directly on the projection of a fault in the Greenville fault zone mapped by Herd (1977). A group of more than 20 extensional fractures in Laughlin Road 1 km north of Interstate 580 probably are related to small tectonic displacements on faults in the Greenville fault zone. They are adjacent and parallel to two faults mapped by Herd (1977), are diagonal to the road, and most of them developed between 25 and 29 January, a period that included the Ms 5.2 shock of 26 January. Observations at two locations indicate tectonic displacement on the Las Positas fault zone as mapped by Herd (1977). At Vasco Road a prominent break on a strand of the fault showed about 0.5 mm of left-lateral strike slip on 7 February. An alinement array across this and other fractures at the locality indicates about 6 mm of left-lateral displacement occurred between 21 February and 26 March. On Tesla Road several right-stepping fractures, one of which showed 1.5 mm of left-lateral strike slip, lie on or close tp previously mapped strands of the Las Positas fault zone. The evidence at these two localities indicates that tectonic surface displacement occurred along at least 1.1 km of the Las Positas fault zone.

  3. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion simulations of a Hayward Fault earthquake, (5) a new USGS Fact Sheet about the earthquake and the Hayward Fault, (6) a virtual tour of the 1868 earthquake, and (7) a new online field trip guide to the Hayward Fault using locations accessible by car and public transit. Finally, the California Geological Survey and many other Alliance members sponsored the Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the East Bay at CSU East Bay in Hayward for the three days following the 140th anniversary. The 1868 Alliance hopes to commemorate the anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake every year to maintain and increase public awareness of this fault, the hazards it and other East Bay Faults pose, and the ongoing need for earthquake preparedness and mitigation.

  4. Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fumal, T.E.; Rymer, M.J.; Seitz, G.G.

    2002-01-01

    Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radio-carbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770-890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840-1150), A.D. 1231 (1170-1290), A.D. 1502 (1450-1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520-1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ?? 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams (1990). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ?? 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ?? 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ?? 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ?? 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ?? 2 mm/yr and about 23-35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

  5. Survey of strong motion earthquake effects on thermal power plants in California with emphasis on piping systems. Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-11-01

    Volume 2 of the ``Survey of Strong Motion Earthquake Effects on Thermal Power Plants in California with Emphasis on Piping Systems`` contains Appendices which detail the detail design and seismic response of several power plants subjected to strong motion earthquakes. The particular plants considered include the Ormond Beach, Long Beach and Seal Beach, Burbank, El Centro, Glendale, Humboldt Bay, Kem Valley, Pasadena and Valley power plants. Included is a typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical piping and support installations for the plants surveyed. Detailed piping support spacing data are also included.

  6. CRUSTAL REFRACTION PROFILE OF THE LONG VALLEY CALDERA, CALIFORNIA, FROM THE JANUARY 1983 MAMMOTH LAKES EARTHQUAKE SWARM.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luetgert, James H.; Mooney, Walter D.

    1985-01-01

    Seismic-refraction profiles recorded north of Mammoth Lakes, California, using earthquake sources from the January 1983 swarm complement earlier explosion refraction profiles and provide velocity information from deeper in the crust in the area of the Long Valley caldera. Eight earthquakes from a depth range of 4. 9 to 8. 0 km confirm the observation of basement rocks with seismic velocities ranging from 5. 8 to 6. 4 km/sec extending at least to depths of 20 km. The data provide further evidence for the existence of a partial melt zone beneath Long Valley caldera and constrain its geometry. Refs.

  7. Monitoring of the stress state variations of the Southern California for the purpose of earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gokhberg, M.; Garagash, I.; Bondur, V.; Steblov, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was developed, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal features such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model is governed by the gravitational forces and horizontal tectonic motions estimated from GPS observations. The analysis shows that the three-dimensional geomechanical models allows monitoring of the changes in the stress state during the seismic process in order to constrain the distribution of the future places with increasing seismic activity. This investigation demonstrates one of possible approach to monitor upcoming seismicity for the periods of days - weeks - months. Continuous analysis of the stress state was carried out during 2009-2014. Each new earthquake with ?~1 and above from USGS catalog was considered as the new defect of the Earth crust which has some definite size and causes redistribution of the stress state. Overall calculation technique was based on the single function of the Earth crust damage, recalculated each half month. As a result each half month in the upper crust layers and partially in the middle layers we revealed locations of the maximal values of the stress state parameters: elastic energy density, shear stress, proximity of the earth crust layers to their strength limit. All these parameters exhibit similar spatial and temporal distribution. How follows from observations all four strongest events with ? ~ 5.5-7.2 occurred in South California during the analyzed period were prefaced by the parameters anomalies in peculiar advance time of weeks-months in the vicinity of 10-50 km from the upcoming earthquake. After the event the stress state source disappeared. The figure shows migration of the maximums of the stress state variations gradients (parameter D) in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake 04.04.2010 with ?=7.2 in the period of 01.01.2010-01.05.2010. Grey lines show the major faults. In the table the values are sampled by 2 weeks, "-" indicates time before the event, "+" indicates time after the event.

  8. Trees and herbs killed by an earthquake ˜300 yr ago at Humboldt Bay, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacoby, Gordon; Carver, Gary; Wagner, Wendy

    1995-01-01

    Evidence of rapid seismic-induced subsidence at Humboldt Bay, California, is produced by analyses of annual growth rings of relict Sitka spruce [Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.] roots and entombed herbaceous plants. These results add to previously reported evidence that an earthquake caused subsidence ˜300 yr ago at Mad River slough, California. Both types of remains are rooted in buried soils that stood at or above the high-tide level until the area subsided at least 0.5 m into the intertidal zone. Burial by intertidal muds took place quickly enough to preserve the herbs in the growth position. Analysis of the annual growth rings of the tree roots shows that all died within four growing seasons, but the time of root death varies even among roots of the same tree. With no central nervous system, tree cells do not die simultaneously throughout the organism. The 0.5 to 1.5 m of subsidence, as evidenced by stratigraphy and sedimentology, was not enough to kill all the trees even in one season. Although such gradual death could be due to rapid aseismic subsidence, the tree deaths and preserved herbs are much better explained by sudden coseismic subsidence.

  9. Stress field associated with the rupture of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake and its implications concerning the fault strength at the onset of the earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchon, Michel; Campillo, Michel; Cotton, Fabrice

    1998-09-01

    We investigate the space and time history of the shear stress produced on the fault during the 1992 Landers earthquake. The stress is directly calculated from the tomographic image of slip on the fault derived from near-source strong motion data. The results obtained shed some light on why the earthquake rupture cascaded along a series of previously distinct fault segments to produce the largest earthquake in California in over 40 years. Rupture on the 30 km long northernmost segment of the fault was triggered by a large dynamic increase of the stress field, of the order of 20 to 30 MPa, produced by the rupturing of the adjacent fault segments. Such a large increase was necessary to overcome the static friction on this strand of the fault, unfavorably oriented in today's tectonic stress field. This misorientation eventually led to the arrest of rupture. The same mechanism explains why rupture broke only a small portion of the Johnson Valley fault on which the earthquake originally started, before jumping to an adjacent fault more favorably oriented. We conclude from these results that the dynamic stress field could not sustain and drive the rupture along the strongly misoriented NW-SE strands of the preexisting fault system. Instead, the dynamic stress field produced new fractures favorably oriented in a N-S direction and connecting parts of the old fault system.

  10. Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California, from double-difference earthquake locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waldhauser, Felix; Ellsworth, William L.

    2002-03-01

    The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggests that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2-3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ~5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

  11. Fault structure and mechanics of the Hayward Fault, California from double-difference earthquake locations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

    2002-01-01

    The relationship between small-magnitude seismicity and large-scale crustal faulting along the Hayward Fault, California, is investigated using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm. We used the DD method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations of the seismicity that occurred between 1967 and 1998. The DD technique incorporates catalog travel time data and relative P and S wave arrival time measurements from waveform cross correlation to solve for the hypocentral separation between events. The relocated seismicity reveals a narrow, near-vertical fault zone at most locations. This zone follows the Hayward Fault along its northern half and then diverges from it to the east near San Leandro, forming the Mission trend. The relocated seismicity is consistent with the idea that slip from the Calaveras Fault is transferred over the Mission trend onto the northern Hayward Fault. The Mission trend is not clearly associated with any mapped active fault as it continues to the south and joins the Calaveras Fault at Calaveras Reservoir. In some locations, discrete structures adjacent to the main trace are seen, features that were previously hidden in the uncertainty of the network locations. The fine structure of the seismicity suggest that the fault surface on the northern Hayward Fault is curved or that the events occur on several substructures. Near San Leandro, where the more westerly striking trend of the Mission seismicity intersects with the surface trace of the (aseismic) southern Hayward Fault, the seismicity remains diffuse after relocation, with strong variation in focal mechanisms between adjacent events indicating a highly fractured zone of deformation. The seismicity is highly organized in space, especially on the northern Hayward Fault, where it forms horizontal, slip-parallel streaks of hypocenters of only a few tens of meters width, bounded by areas almost absent of seismic activity. During the interval from 1984 to 1998, when digital waveforms are available, we find that fewer than 6.5% of the earthquakes can be classified as repeating earthquakes, events that rupture the same fault patch more than one time. These most commonly are located in the shallow creeping part of the fault, or within the streaks at greater depth. The slow repeat rate of 2-3 times within the 15-year observation period for events with magnitudes around M = 1.5 is indicative of a low slip rate or a high stress drop. The absence of microearthquakes over large, contiguous areas of the northern Hayward Fault plane in the depth interval from ???5 to 10 km and the concentrations of seismicity at these depths suggest that the aseismic regions are either locked or retarded and are storing strain energy for release in future large-magnitude earthquakes.

  12. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business establishment size.

  13. TriNet "ShakeMaps": Rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wald, D.J.; Quitoriano, V.; Heaton, T.H.; Kanamori, H.; Scrivner, C.W.; Worden, C.B.

    1999-01-01

    Rapid (3-5 minutes) generation of maps of instrumental ground-motion and shaking intensity is accomplished through advances in real-time seismographic data acquisition combined with newly developed relationships between recorded ground-motion parameters and expected shaking intensity values. Estimation of shaking over the entire regional extent of southern California is obtained by the spatial interpolation of the measured ground motions with geologically based frequency and amplitude-dependent site corrections. Production of the maps is automatic, triggered by any significant earthquake in southern California. Maps are now made available within several minutes of the earthquake for public and scientific consumption via the World Wide Web; they will be made available with dedicated communications for emergency response agencies and critical users.

  14. Coseismic and postseismic vertical movements associated with the 1940 M7.1 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reilinger, R.

    1984-01-01

    Leveling surveys conducted along two routes that cross the Imperial fault in southern California indicate spatially coherent elevation changes attributable to coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1940, M7.1 Imperial Valley earthquake. The 1931-1941 elevation changes are consistent with theoretical models of vertical deformation of an elastic half space for a finite length strike-slip fault, using fault parameters that are consistent with the observed surface offsets following the 1940 earthquake. The elevation changes suggest an earthquake scenario consisting of a large coeismic slip in the southern half of the fault which transferred stress to the northern part as well as to the Brawley fault to the northeast.

  15. Residual analysis methods for space--time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California

    E-print Network

    Clements, Robert Alan; Schorlemmer, Danijel; 10.1214/11-AOAS487

    2012-01-01

    Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose residual methods based on rescaling, thinning, superposition, weighted K-functions and deviance residuals. Rescaled residuals can be useful for assessing the overall fit of a model, but as with thinning and superposition, rescaling is generally impractical when the conditional intensity $\\lambda$ is volatile. While residual thinning and superposition may be useful for identifying spatial locations where a model fits poorly, these methods have limited power when the modeled conditional intensity assumes extremely low or high values somewhere in the observation region, and this is commonly t...

  16. Processed seismic motion records from Big Bear, California earthquake of June 28, 1992, recorded at seismograph stations in southern Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-04-01

    The 8mm data-tape contains the processed seismic data of the Big Bear, California earthquake of June 28, 1992. The seismic data were recorded by 15 seismographs maintained by the DOE/NV in Southern Nevada. Four files were generated from each seismic recorder. They are ``Uncorrected acceleration time histories, 2. Corrected acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories, 3. Pseudo response velocity spectra, and 4. Fourier amplitude spectra of acceleration.``

  17. Processed seismic motion records from Landers, California earthquake of June 28, 1992, recorded at seismograph stations in southern Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-04-01

    The 8mm data tape contains the processed seismic data of the Landers, California earthquake of June 28, 1992. The seismic, data were recorded by 19 seismographs maintained by the DOE/NV in Southern Nevada. Four files were generated from each seismic recorder. They are ``Uncorrected acceleration time histories, 2. Corrected acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories, 3. Pseudo response velocity spectra, and 4. Fourier amplitude spectra of acceleration.``

  18. Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

  19. Remotely triggered microearthquakes and tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity

    2010-01-01

    We examine remotely triggered microearthquakes and tectonic tremor in central California following the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake. Several microearthquakes near the Coso Geothermal Field were apparently triggered, with the largest earthquake (Ml 3.5) occurring during the large-amplitude Love surface waves. The Chile mainshock also triggered numerous tremor bursts near the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF). The locally triggered tremor bursts are partially masked at lower frequencies by the regionally triggered earthquake signals from Coso, but can be identified by applying high-pass or matched filters. Both triggered tremor along the SAF and the Ml 3.5 earthquake in Coso are consistent with frictional failure at different depths on critically-stressed faults under the Coulomb failure criteria. The triggered tremor, however, appears to be more phase-correlated with the surface waves than the triggered earthquakes, likely reflecting differences in constitutive properties between the brittle, seismogenic crust and the underlying lower crust.

  20. Changes in the discharge characteristics of thermal springs and fumaroles in the Long Valley Caldera, California, resulting from earthquakes on May 25-27, 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorey, M.L.; Clark, Mark D.

    1981-01-01

    Changes in flow rate and turbidity have been observed and measured in hot springs in the Long Valley caldera, California, following earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.3 in May 1980. Increases in flow rate of some hot springs occurred within minutes of the earthquakes, followed by more gradual decreases in flow rate to pre-earthquake levels. Spring temperatures and chemistries also show no long-term variations following earthquakes. Transient changes in discharge characteristics of the hot springs appear to result from increases in the permeability of fault conduits transmitting the hot water to the surface. (USGS)

  1. Rupture Pomess of Four Medium Size Earthquakes That Occurred in the Gulf of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Lozoya, H. E.; Rebollar, C. J.; Quintanar, L.

    2005-12-01

    Four earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.3, 5.6, 6.1 and 6.2 located in the Gulf of California Extensional Province were studied to obtain their rupture process. A network of broadband seismic stations located around the Gulf of California recorded the events (NARS-Baja and RESBAN). Body waveform modeling and the inversion of the seismic moment tensor were used to obtain the fault geometry. From forward body waveform modeling and from the time-domain moment tensor inversion we obtained source depths in the range from 4 to 6 km. We used Yagi et al. (1999) inversion code to invert near-source broadband and strong-ground-motion waveforms to get the spatial slip distribution over the fault. We found that the source rupture process of the magnitude 5.3 and 5,6 have simple moment-rate functions and source time duration of 10 and 17 seconds respectively. Magnitude 5.3 event was a normal event and magnitude 5.6 was a right lateral strike-slip event. Magnitude 6.1 and 6.3 were right lateral strike-slip events with a complex rupture process with three sources of seismic moment release. Time duration of these events were 30 and 35 seconds respectively. Time duration of the moment-rate functions are large compared with similar magnitude events calculated elsewhere, we think that this is because we are inverting a large window of the seismogram that contain energy that it is not seen at regional distances or teleseismic distances.

  2. A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations

    E-print Network

    Felzer, Karen

    shock of rupture dimension, D, or N(r, D), and the likelihood of failure being triggered) with the magnitude of and distance from the main shock fault to derive constraints on how the probability of a main shock triggering a single aftershock at a point, P(r, D), varies as a function of distance, r, and main

  3. Evaluation of Real-Time Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm in Switzerland and California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behr, Y.; Cua, G. B.; Clinton, J. F.; Heaton, T. H.

    2012-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) algorithms - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS will be installed and tested at other European networks. VS has been running in real-time on stations of the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) since July 2008, and on stations of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) and the USGS Menlo Park strong motion network in northern California since February 2009. In Switzerland, VS has been running in real-time on stations monitored by the Swiss Seismological Service (including stations from Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) since 2010. We present summaries of the real-time performance of VS in Switzerland and California over the past two and three years respectively. The empirical relationships used by VS to estimate magnitudes and ground motion, originally derived from southern California data, are demonstrated to perform well in northern California and Switzerland. Implementation in real-time and off-line testing in Europe will potentially be extended to southern Italy, western Greece, Istanbul, Romania, and Iceland. Integration of the VS algorithm into both the CISN Advanced Quake Monitoring System (AQMS) and the SeisComP3 real-time earthquake monitoring systems is underway. VS operation in California will eventually be fully transitioned to the CISN AQMS system. European installations of VS will most likely be based on the SeisComP3 platform.

  4. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of the method in earthquake studies and a number of advantages of it over other methods. The details will be reported on the meeting.

  5. Disaster Response and Decision Support in Partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glasscoe, M. T.; Rosinski, A.; Vaughan, D.; Morentz, J.

    2014-12-01

    Getting the right information to the right people at the right time is critical during a natural disaster. E-DECIDER (Emergency Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response) is a NASA decision support system designed to produce remote sensing and geophysical modeling data products that are relevant to the emergency preparedness and response communities and serve as a gateway to enable the delivery of NASA decision support products to these communities. The E-DECIDER decision support system has several tools, services, and products that have been used to support end-user exercises in partnership with the California Earthquake Clearinghouse since 2012, including near real-time deformation modeling results and on-demand maps of critical infrastructure that may have been potentially exposed to damage by a disaster. E-DECIDER's underlying service architecture allows the system to facilitate delivery of NASA decision support products to the Clearinghouse through XchangeCore Web Service Data Orchestration that allows trusted information exchange among partner agencies. This in turn allows Clearinghouse partners to visualize data products produced by E-DECIDER and other NASA projects through incident command software such as SpotOnResponse or ArcGIS Online.

  6. Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merifield, P. M.; Lamar, D. L. (principal investigators)

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS and Skylab images reveal a number of prominent lineaments in the basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major, well-known, active, northwest trending, right-slip faults are well displayed, but northeast and west to west-northwest trending lineaments are also present. Study of large-scale airphotos followed by field investigations have shown that several of these lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Pitches of striations on shear surfaces of the northeast and west trending faults indicate oblique-slip movement; data are insufficient to determine the net-slip. These faults are restricted to the pre-Tertiary basement terrane and are truncated by the major northwest trending faults; therefore, they may have formed in response to an earlier stress system. Future work should be directed toward determining whether the northeast and west trending faults are related to the presently active stress system or to an older inactive system, because this question relates to the earthquake risk in the vicinity of these faults.

  7. Cruise report for A1-02-SC southern California CABRILLO project, Earthquake Hazards Task

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Normark, William R.; Fisher, Michael A.; Gutmacher, Christina E.; Sliter, Ray; Hibbeler, Lori; Feingold, Beth; Reid, Jane A.

    2003-01-01

    A two-week marine geophysical survey obtained sidescan-sonar images and multiple sets of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles in the southern California offshore area between Point Arguello and Point Dume. The data were obtained to support two project activities of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) the evaluation of the geologic hazards posed by earthquake faults and landslides in the offshore areas of Santa Barbara Channel and western Santa Monica Basin and (2) determine the location of active hydrocarbon seeps in the vicinity of Point Conception as part of a collaborative study with the Minerals Management Service (MMS). The 2002 cruise, A1-02- SC, is the fourth major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b; Gutmacher et al., 2000). A cruise to obtain sediment cores to constrain the timing of deformation interpreted from the geophysical records is planned for the summer of 2003.

  8. Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Bozkurt, S.B.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

  9. Directional topographic site response at Tarzana observed in aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Implications for mainshock motions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Hellweg, M.; Lee, W.H.K.

    1996-01-01

    The Northridge earthquake caused 1.78 g acceleration in the east-west direction at a site in Tarzana, California, located about 6 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The accelerograph was located atop a hill about 15-m high, 500-m long, and 130-m wide, striking about N78??E. During the aftershock sequence, a temporary array of 21 three-component geophones was deployed in six radial lines centered on the accelerograph, with an average sensor spacing of 35 m. Station COO was located about 2 m from the accelerograph. We inverted aftershock spectra to obtain average relative site response at each station as a function of direction of ground motion. We identified a 3.2-Hz resonance that is a transverse oscillation of the hill (a directional topographic effect). The top/base amplification ratio at 3.2 Hz is about 4.5 for horizontal ground motions oriented approximately perpendicular to the long axis of the hill and about 2 for motions parallel to the hill. This resonance is seen most strongly within 50 m of COO. Other resonant frequencies were also observed. A strong lateral variation in attenuation, probably associated with a fault, caused substantially lower motion at frequencies above 6 Hz at the east end of the hill. There may be some additional scattered waves associated with the fault zone and seen at both the base and top of the hill, causing particle motions (not spectral ratios) at the top of the hill to be rotated about 20?? away from the direction transverse to the hill. The resonant frequency, but not the amplitude, of our observed topographic resonance agrees well with theory, even for such a low hill. Comparisons of our observations with theoretical results indicate that the 3D shape of the hill and its internal structure are important factors affecting its response. The strong transverse resonance of the hill does not account for the large east-west mainshock motions. Assuming linear soil response, mainshock east-west motions at the Tarzana accelerograph were amplified by a factor of about 2 or less compared with sites at the base of the hill. Probable variations in surficial shear-wave velocity do not account for the observed differences among mainshock acceleration observed at Tarzana and at two different sites within 2 km of Tarzana.

  10. Westward-derived conglomerates in Moenkopi formation of Southeastern California, and their probable tectonic significance

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, J.D.; Burchfiel, B.C.; Royden, L.H.

    1983-02-01

    The upper part of the Moenkopi Formation in the Northern Clark Mountains, Southeastern California, contains conglomerate beds whose clasts comprise igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks. Metamorphic clasts include foliated granite, meta-arkose, and quarzite, probably derived from older Precambrian basement and younger Precambrian clastic rocks. Volcanic clasts are altered plagioclase-bearing rocks, and sedimentary clasts were derived from Paleozoic miogeoclinal rocks. Paleocurrent data indicate that the clasts had a source to the southwest. An age of late Early or early Middle Triassic has been tentatively assigned to these conglomerates. These conglomerates indicate that Late Permian to Early Triassic deformational events in this part of the orogen affected rocks much farther east than has been previously recognized.

  11. Micro-earthquake Analysis for Reservoir Properties at the Prati-32 Injection Test, The Geysers, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchings, L. J.; Singh, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    The Prati-32 injection test offers a particular opportunity to test rock physics theories and tomography results as it occurred in a previously undisturbed portion of The Geysers, California. Within the northwest Geysers, there is a high temperature zone (HTZ) directly below the normal temperature reservoir (NTR) at ˜2.6 km below ground surface. We demonstrate an analysis of micro-earthquake data with rock physics theory to identify fractures, state of fluids, and permeable zones. We obtain earthquake source properties (hypocenters, magnitudes, stress drops, and moment tensors), 3D isotropic velocity (Vp and Vs) and attenuation (Qp and Qs seismic quality factors), derived elastic moduli (Lambda, Bulk and Young's moduli), and Poisson's ratio. After one month of injection changes in these parameters occur right at the point where injection occured, which confirms the accuracy of the tomography. Bulk modulus, Poisson's ratio, and Lambda increased. Vs decreased. Qp and Vp increased slightly and Qs did not change. We interpret this observation to indicate that there is fluid saturation along with fracturing around the well bottom. Fracturing would decrease Vs, while saturation would not affect Vs. Whereas, saturation would increase Vp, even with fracturing. Saturation and fracturing should have competing effect of intrinsic and extrinsic Q. Saturation should increase intrinsic Qp, but not affect extrinsic Qp. We can't explain the unchanged Qs, unless the effect of increasing intrinsic Qs is offset by a decrease in extrinsic Qs. Poisson's ratio, and Lambda increased, which is another indication of saturation. After two months of injection, as compared to one month before injection. Bulk modulus and Vp have returned to values comparable to before injection for the volume around the well bottom. A new anomaly in Vp has moved below the well. Vs continues to be low and Lambda and Poisson's ratio continue to be high compared to before injection. These changes have not moved, but increased in size. We interpret these observations to indicate continued saturation, but with increased fracturing. Only Vp and bulk modulus have changed significantly and this is due to the increased fracturing offsetting the saturation.

  12. Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra and swarms in the Salton Trough, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

    2011-09-01

    We study earthquakes within California's Salton Trough from 1981 to 2009 from a precisely relocated catalog. We process the seismic waveforms to isolate source spectra, station spectra and travel-time dependent spectra. The results suggest an average P wave Q of 340, agreeing with previous results indicating relatively high attenuation in the Salton Trough. Stress drops estimated from the source spectra using an empirical Green's function (EGF) method reveal large scatter among individual events but a low median stress drop of 0.56 MPa for the region. The distribution of stress drop after applying a spatial-median filter indicates lower stress drops near geothermal sites. We explore the relationships between seismicity, stress drops and geothermal injection activities. Seismicity within the Salton Trough shows strong spatial clustering, with 20 distinct earthquake swarms with at least 50 events. They can be separated into early-Mmax and late-Mmax groups based on the normalized occurrence time of their largest event. These swarms generally have a low skew value of moment release history, ranging from -9 to 3.0. The major temporal difference between the two groups is the excess of seismicity and an inverse power law increase of seismicity before the largest event for the late-Mmax group. All swarms exhibit spatial migration of seismicity at a statistical significance greater than 85%. A weighted L1-norm inversion of linear migration parameters yields migration velocities from 0.008 to 0.8 km/hour. To explore the influence of fluid injection in geothermal sites, we also model the migration behavior with the diffusion equation, and obtain a hydraulic diffusion coefficient of approximately 0.25 m2/s for the Salton Sea geothermal site, which is within the range of expected values for a typical geothermal reservoir. The swarms with migration velocities over 0.1 km/hour cannot be explained by the diffusion curve, rather, their velocity is consistent with the propagation velocity of creep and slow slip events. These variations in migration behavior allow us to distinguish among different driving processes.

  13. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market.

  14. Virtual California, ETAS, and OpenHazards web services: Responding to earthquakes in the age of Big Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, M. R.; Schultz, K.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    The response to the 2014 m=6 Napa earthquake showcased data driven services and technologies that aided first responders and decision makers to quickly assess damage, estimate aftershock hazard, and efficiently allocate resources where where they were most needed. These tools have been developed from fundamental research as part of a broad collaboration -- facilitated in no small party by the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, between researchers, policy makers, and executive decision makers and practiced and honed during numerous disaster response exercises over the past several years. On 24 August 2014, and the weeks following the m=6 Napa event, it became evident that these technologies will play an important role in the response to natural (and other) disasters in the 21st century. Given the continued rapid growth of computational capabilities, remote sensing technologies, and data gathering capacities -- including by unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), it is reasonable to expect that both the volume and variety of data available during a response scenario will grow significantly in the decades to come. Inevitably, modern Data Science will be critical to effective disaster response in the 21st century. In this work, we discuss the roles that earthquake simulators, statistical seismicity models, and remote sensing technologies played in the the 2014 Napa earthquake response. We further discuss "Big Data" technologies and data models that facilitate the transformation of raw data into disseminable information and actionable products, and we outline a framework for the next generation of disaster response data infrastructure.

  15. LLNL-Generated Content for the California Academy of Sciences, Morrison Planetarium Full-Dome Show: Earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, A J; Petersson, N A; Morency, C E; Simmons, N A; Sjogreen, B

    2012-01-23

    The California Academy of Sciences (CAS) Morrison Planetarium is producing a 'full-dome' planetarium show on earthquakes and asked LLNL to produce content for the show. Specifically the show features numerical ground motion simulations of the M 7.9 1906 San Francisco and a possible future M 7.05 Hayward fault scenario earthquake. The show also features concepts of plate tectonics and mantle convection using images from LLNL's G3D global seismic tomography. This document describes the data that was provided to the CAS in support of production of the 'Earthquake' show. The CAS is located in Golden Gate Park, San Francisco and hosts over 1.6 million visitors. The Morrison Planetarium, within the CAS, is the largest all digital planetarium in the world. It features a 75-foot diameter spherical section projection screen tilted at a 30-degree angle. Six projectors cover the entire field of view and give a three-dimensional immersive experience. CAS shows strive to use scientifically accurate digital data in their productions. The show, entitled simply 'Earthquake', will debut on 26 May 2012. They are working on graphics and animations based on the same data sets for display on LLNL powerwalls and flat-screens as well as for public release.

  16. Southern California Earthquake Center - SCEC1: Final Report Summary Alternative Earthquake Source Characterization for the Los Angeles Region

    SciTech Connect

    Foxall, B

    2003-02-26

    The objective my research has been to synthesize current understanding of the tectonics and faults of the Los Angeles Basin and surrounding region to quantify uncertainty in the characterization of earthquake sources used for geologically- and geodetically-based regional earthquake likelihood models. This work has focused on capturing epistemic uncertainty; i.e. uncertainty stemming from ignorance of the true characteristics of the active faults in the region and of the tectonic forces that drive them. In the present context, epistemic uncertainty has two components: First, the uncertainty in source geometrical and occurrence rate parameters deduced from the limited geological, geophysical and geodetic observations available; and second. uncertainties that result from fundamentally different interpretations of regional tectonic deformation and faulting. Characterization of the large number of active and potentially active faults that need to be included in estimating earthquake occurrence likelihoods for the Los Angeles region requires synthesis and evaluation of large amounts of data and numerous interpretations. This was accomplished primarily through a series of carefully facilitated workshops, smaller meetings involving key researchers, and email groups. The workshops and meetings were made possible by the unique logistical and financial resources available through SCEC, and proved to be extremely effective forums for the exchange and critical debate of data and interpretations that are essential in constructing fully representative source models. The main products from this work are a complete source model that characterizes all know or potentially active faults in the greater Los Angeles region. which includes the continental borderland as far south as San Diego, the Ventura Basin, and the Santa Barbara Channel. The model constitutes a series of maps and representative cross-sections that define alternative fault geometries, a table containing rault geometrical and slip-rate parameters, including full uncertainty distributions, and a set of logic trees that define alternative source characterizations, particularly for sets of fault systems having inter-dependent geometries and kinematics resulting from potential intersection and interaction in the sub-surface. All of these products exist in a form suitable for input to earthquake likelihood and seismic hazard analyses. In addition, moment-balanced Poissonian earthquake rates for the alternative multi-segment characterizations of each fault system have been estimated. Finally, this work has served an important integrative function in that the exchange and debate of data, results and ideas that it has engendered has helped to focus SCEC research over the past six years on to key issues in tectonic deformation and faulting.

  17. Earthquake Cycle Deformation at the Ballenas Transform, Gulf of California, Mexico, from InSAR and GPS Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plattner, Christina; Fattahi, Heresh; Malservisi, Rocco; Amelung, Falk; Verdecchia, Alessandro; Dixon, Timothy H.

    2015-05-01

    We study crustal deformation across the Ballenas marine channel, Gulf of California, Mexico using InSAR and campaign GPS data. Interseismic velocities are calculated by time-series analysis spanning five years of data. Displacements from the August 3rd 2009 Mw 6.9 earthquake are calculated by differencing the most recent observations before and after the event. To estimate the offset across the marine channel we calibrate the InSAR velocity and displacement fields using the corresponding GPS data. Unfortunately, the InSAR interseismic velocity field is affected by residual tropospheric delay. We interpret the GPS interseismic and the GPS and InSAR coseismic deformation data using dislocation modeling and compare the fault kinematics during these periods of the earthquake cycle.

  18. Examples of the use of geologic and seismologic information for earthquake-hazard reduction in southern California

    SciTech Connect

    Kockelman, W.J.

    1983-01-01

    The report illustrates some of the range and types of applications of geologic and seismologic information used by planners and decisionmakers to reduce earthquake hazards in Southern California. Included among the users are State legislators, State agencies, county planning commissioners, county board supervisors, mayors, councilpersons, engineers, building inspectors, and real-estate sellers. The examples affect on entire State, a metropolitan region, a 2740 square-mile (7097 km/sup 2/) county, a city of almost 3 million people, and individual lots and acreages offered for sale. Each example contains a summary of the problems or needs faced by the users, the Earth-science information used or available, the specific action taken, the methods and procedures used to carry out each action, and brief comments on the impact of each plan or decision and its adaptation for earthquake-hazard reduction by other users. 72 references, 12 figures.

  19. Borehole velocity measurements at five sites that recorded the Cape Mendocino, California earthquake of 25 April, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibbs, James F.; Tinsley, John C., III; Boore, David M.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of an ongoing program to acquire seismic velocity and geologic data at locations that recorded strong-ground motions during earthquakes, has investigated five sites in the Fortuna, California region (Figure 1). We selected drill sites at strong-motion stations that recorded high accelerations (Table 1) from the Cape Mendocino earthquake (M 7.0) of 25 April 1992 (Oppenheimer et al., 1993). The boreholes were drilled to a nominal depth of 95 meters (310 ft) and cased with schedule 80 pvc-casing grouted in place at each location. S-wave and P-wave data were acquired at each site using a surface source and a borehole three-component geophone. This report contains the velocity models interpreted from the borehole data and gives reference to locations and peak accelerations at the selected strong-motion stations.

  20. Earthquake-by-earthquake fold growth above the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, Los Angeles, California: Implications for fold kinematics and seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leon, L.A.; Christofferson, S.A.; Dolan, J.F.; Shaw, J.H.; Pratt, T.L.

    2007-01-01

    Boreholes and high-resolution seismic reflection data collected across the forelimb growth triangle above the central segment of the Puente Hills thrust fault (PHT) beneath Los Angeles, California, provide a detailed record of incremental fold growth during large earthquakes on this major blind thrust fault. These data document fold growth within a discrete kink band that narrows upward from ???460 m at the base of the Quaternary section (200-250 m depth) to 82% at 250 m depth) folding and uplift occur within discrete kink bands, thereby enabling us to develop a paleoseismic history of the underlying blind thrust fault. The borehole data reveal that the youngest part of the growth triangle in the uppermost 20 m comprises three stratigraphically discrete growth intervals marked by southward thickening sedimentary strata that are separated by intervals in which sediments do not change thickness across the site. We interpret the intervals of growth as occurring after the formation of now-buried paleofold scarps during three large PHT earthquakes in the past 8 kyr. The intervening intervals of no growth record periods of structural quiescence and deposition at the regional, near-horizontal stream gradient at the study site. Minimum uplift in each of the scarp-forming events, which occurred at 0.2-2.2 ka (event Y), 3.0-6.3 ka (event X), and 6.6-8.1 ka (event W), ranged from ???1.1 to ???1.6 m, indicating minimum thrust displacements of ???2.5 to 4.5 m. Such large displacements are consistent with the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes (Mw > 7). Cumulative, minimum uplift in the past three events was 3.3 to 4.7 m, suggesting cumulative thrust displacement of ???7 to 10.5 m. These values yield a minimum Holocene slip rate for the PHT of ???0.9 to 1.6 mm/yr. The borehole and seismic reflection data demonstrate that dip within the kink band is acquired incrementally, such that older strata that have been deformed by more earthquakes dip more steeply than younger strata. Specifically, strata dip 0.4?? at 4 m depth, 0.7?? at 20 m depth, 8?? at 90 m, 16?? at 110 m, and 17?? at 200 m. Moreover, structural restorations of the borehole data show that the locus of active folding (the anticlinal active axial surface) does not extend to the surface in exactly the same location from earthquake to earthquake. Rather, that the axial surfaces migrate from earthquake to earthquake, reflecting a component of fold growth by kink band migration. The incremental acquisition of bed dip in the growth triangle may reflect some combination of fold growth by limb rotation in addition to kink band migration, possibly through a component of trishear or shear fault bend folding. Alternatively, the component of limb rotation may result from curved hinge fault bend folding, and/or the mechanical response of loosely consolidated granular sediments in the shallow subsurface to folding at depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. CISN ShakeAlert: Three Years of Comparative Real-Time Earthquake Early Warning Testing in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Allen, R. M.; Boese, M.; Brown, H.; Given, D.; Fischer, M.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T. H.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T. H.; Khainovski, O.; Maechling, P. J.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Oppenheimer, D. H.; Solanki, K.

    2009-12-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) recently concluded a three-year project (August 2006-July 2009) aimed at the implementation, real-time testing, and comparative performance evaluation of three participating earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms: 1) the Tau-C/P-d onsite algorithm developed by the California Institute of Technology, 2) the ElarmS algorithm developed by UC Berkeley, and 3) the Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm developed by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich. These 3 EEW algorithms were installed and tested, and continue to run in real-time, at the Southern California Seismic Network, the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network, and the USGS Menlo Park network. The OnSite algorithm provides single-station magnitude estimates and estimates peak ground velocity at a given station. ElarmS and VS both provide magnitude and location estimates, as well as estimates of the geographic distribution of peak ground shaking. Over the last three years, these EEW algorithms submitted real-time and automatic non-interactive offline event reports to the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) EEW Testing Center, which independently evaluated algorithm performance relative to the ANSS earthquake catalogue and observed ground motion datasets. We quantify the performance of these participating algorithms in terms of the accuracy of magnitude, location, and peak ground motion estimation, as well as the speed at which the algorithms provide information. Based on the derived performance characteristics, we infer how a prototype system based on the three algorithms might operate given alternative conditions, such as shorter telemetry delays, faster processing times, or higher station densities. The 2006-2009 CISN-EEW project demonstrated the feasibility and potential benefits of EEW in California. A new USGS-funded effort is underway to develop key components of CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. These key components include: 1) integration of the three algorithms into a single processing thread capable of providing alerts, 2) development of partnerships with key test users, and 3) development of protocols and procedures in collaboration with the test users that will govern the form and release of EEW information, if such a system is built.

  2. Seismic velocity variations along the rupture zone of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, G.; Thurber, C. H.

    2012-09-01

    We revisit the rupture zone of the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, central California, by developing high-resolution three-dimensional (3-D)Vp and Vp/Vs models. We apply the simul2000 inversion method and algorithm to a set of "composite" events, which have greater number of picks per event and reduced random picking errors compared with traditional master events. Our final P-wave velocity model generally agrees with previous studies, showing a high velocity body of above 6.7 km/s in the southeast rupture zone of the main shock. The 3-DVp/Vs model, however, has different features, with low Vp/Vs in the upper crust and high Vp/Vs anomalies in deeper layers of the rupture zone. We interpret the low Vp/Vs at shallow depths to be granitic rocks, whereas at greater depths the areas of higher Vp/Vs(around 1.725-1.75) presumably are mafic rocks. The resulting 3-D velocity model was used to improve absolute locations for all local events between 1984 and 2010 in our study area. We then applied a similar event cluster analysis, waveform cross-correlation, and differential time relocation methods to improve relative event location accuracy. Over 88% of the seismicity falls into similar event clusters. A dramatic sharpening of seismicity patterns is obtained after using these methods. The medians of the relative location uncertainties calculated by using the bootstrap approach are 5 m for horizontal and 8 m for vertical. Differential times from cross-correlation are used to estimatein situnear-sourceVp/Vsratio within each event cluster. The high-resolutionVp/Vs method confirms the trend of the velocity variations from the tomographic results, although absolute values are slightly different.

  3. Behavior of Repeating Earthquake Sequences in Central California and the Implications for Subsurface Fault Creep

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, D C; Nadeau, R; Burgmann, R

    2007-07-09

    Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of events that have nearly identical waveforms and are interpreted to represent fault asperities driven to failure by loading from aseismic creep on the surrounding fault surface at depth. We investigate the occurrence of these REs along faults in central California to determine which faults exhibit creep and the spatio-temporal distribution of this creep. At the juncture of the San Andreas and southern Calaveras-Paicines faults, both faults as well as a smaller secondary fault, the Quien Sabe fault, are observed to produce REs over the observation period of March 1984-May 2005. REs in this area reflect a heterogeneous creep distribution along the fault plane with significant variations in time. Cumulative slip over the observation period at individual sequence locations is determined to range from 5.5-58.2 cm on the San Andreas fault, 4.8-14.1 cm on the southern Calaveras-Paicines fault, and 4.9-24.8 cm on the Quien Sabe fault. Creep at depth appears to mimic the behaviors seen of creep on the surface in that evidence of steady slip, triggered slip, and episodic slip phenomena are also observed in the RE sequences. For comparison, we investigate the occurrence of REs west of the San Andreas fault within the southern Coast Range. Events within these RE sequences only occurred minutes to weeks apart from each other and then did not repeat again over the observation period, suggesting that REs in this area are not produced by steady aseismic creep of the surrounding fault surface.

  4. Instrumental intensity distribution for the Hector Mine, California, and the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquakes: Comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sokolov, V.; Wald, D.J.

    2002-01-01

    We compare two methods of seismic-intensity estimation from ground-motion records for the two recent strong earthquakes: the 1999 (M 7.1) Hector Mine, California, and the 1999 (M 7.6) Chi-Chi, Taiwan. The first technique utilizes the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV), and it is used for rapid generation of the instrumental intensity map in California. The other method is based on the revised relationships between intensity and Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS). The results of using the methods are compared with independently observed data and between the estimations from the records. For the case of the Hector Mine earthquake, the calculated intensities in general agree with the observed values. For the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the areas of maximum calculated intensity correspond to the areas of the greatest damage and highest number of fatalities. However, the FAS method producees higher-intensity values than those of the peak amplitude method. The specific features of ground-motion excitation during the large, shallow, thrust earthquake may be considered a reason for the discrepancy. The use of PGA and PGV is simple; however, the use of FAS provides a natural consideration of site amplification by means of generalized or site-specific spectral ratios. Because the calculation of seismic-intensity maps requires rapid processing of data from a large network, it is very practical to generate a "first-order" map from the recorded peak motions. Then, a "second-order" map may be compiled using an amplitude-spectra method on the basis of available records and numerical modeling of the site-dependent spectra for the regions of sparse station spacing.

  5. A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Felzer, K.

    2008-01-01

    We have used observations from Felzer and Brodsky (2006) of the variation of linear aftershock densities (i.e., aftershocks per unit length) with the magnitude of and distance from the main shock fault to derive constraints on how the probability of a main shock triggering a single aftershock at a point, P(r, D), varies as a function of distance, r, and main shock rupture dimension, D. We find that P(r, D) becomes independent of D as the triggering fault is approached. When r ??? D P(r, D) scales as Dm where m-2 and decays with distance approximately as r-n with n = 2, with a possible change to r-(n-1) at r > h, where h is the closest distance between the fault and the boundaries of the seismogenic zone. These constraints may be used to test hypotheses about the types of deformations and mechanisms that trigger aftershocks. We illustrate this using dynamic deformations (i.e., radiated seismic waves) and a posited proportionality with P(r, D). Deformation characteristics examined include peak displacements, peak accelerations and velocities (proportional to strain rates and strains, respectively), and two measures that account for cumulative deformations. Our model indicates that either peak strains alone or strain rates averaged over the duration of rupture may be responsible for aftershock triggering.

  6. The magnitude 6.7 northridge, california, earthquake of 17 january 1994.

    PubMed

    1994-10-21

    The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes. PMID:17816681

  7. Stress triggering of the 1994 m = 6.7 northridge, california, earthquake by its predecessors.

    PubMed

    Stein, R S; King, G C; Lin, J

    1994-09-01

    A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Coulomb stress toward failure at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, the earthquakes with moment magnitude M >/= 6 near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-lnglewood faults by more than 1 bar. Although too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not. PMID:17833817

  8. Full-3D Tomography of the Crustal Structure in Southern California Using Earthquake Seismograms and Ambient-Noise Correlagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, E. J.; Chen, P.; Jordan, T. H.; Maechling, P. J.; Denolle, M.; Beroza, G. C.

    2014-12-01

    We have constructed a high-resolution model for the Southern California crust, CVM-S4.26, by inverting more than half-a-million waveform-misfit measurements from about 38,000 earthquake seismograms and 12,000 ambient-noise correlagrams. The inversion was initiated with the Southern California Earthquake Center's Community Velocity Model, CVM-S4, and seismograms were simulated using K. Olsen's staggered-grid finite-difference code, AWP-ODC, which was highly optimized for massively parallel computation on supercomputers by Y. Cui et al. We navigated the tomography through 26 iterations, alternating the inversion sequences between the adjoint-wavefield (AW) method and the more rapidly converging, but more data-intensive, scattering-integral (SI) method. Earthquake source errors were reduced at various stages of the tomographic navigation by inverting the waveform data for the earthquake centroid-moment tensors. All inversions were done on the Mira supercomputer of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. The resulting model, CVM-S4.26, is consistent with independent observations, such as high-resolution 2D refraction surveys and Bouguer gravity data. Many of the high-contrast features of CVM-S4.26 conform to known fault structures and other geological constraints not applied in the inversions. We have conducted several other validation experiments, including checking the model against a large number (>28,000) of seismograms not used in the inversions. We illustrate this consistency with the excellent fits at low frequencies (? 0.2 Hz) to three-component seismograms recorded throughout Southern California from the 17 Mar 2014 Encino (MW4.4) and 29 Mar 2014 La Habra (MW5.1) earthquakes, and we show these fits to be much better than those obtained by two community velocity models in current use, CVM-S4 and CVM-H11.9. We conclude by describing some of the novel features of the CVM-S4.26 model, which include unusual velocity reversals in some regions of the mid-crust.

  9. Monitoring Local and Teleseismic Earthquakes Off--Shore San Diego(California) During an OBSIP Test Deployment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laske, G.; Babcock, J.; Hollinshead, C.; Georgieff, P.; Allmann, B.; Orcutt, J.

    2004-12-01

    The Scripps OBS (Ocean Bottom Seismometer) team is one of three groups that provide instrumentation for the US National OBS Instrument Pool (OBSIP). The compact active source LC2000 instruments are being used successfully in numerous experiments, with excellent data quality and return rates. A set of five new passive seismic instruments was test--deployed from November 6th, 2003 through January 8th, 2004 in the San Diego Trough, about 1km below the sea surface, about 40km off--shore San Diego, California. These instruments are equipped with a Nanometrics Trillium 40s 3--component seismometer and a Cox--Webb differential pressure gauge. We recorded more than 30 teleseismic earthquakes suitable for a long-period surface wave study. The vertical--component seismometer recordings are of excellent quality and are often superior to those from similar sensors on land (Guralp CMG-40T). The signal--to--noise ratio on the DPGs depend strongly on the water depth and was expected to be low for the test deployment. Nevertheless, the December 22, 2003 San Simeon/ California earthquake was recorded with high fidelity and non--seismogenic signals are extremely coherent down to very long periods. We also recorded numerous local earthquakes. Many of these occurred off-shore and the OBSs were the closest stations by many tens of kilometers. For example, a magnitude 3.0 earthquake on the Coronado Banks Fault was recorded at station SOL in La Jolla at about 30km distance, with a signal-to-noise ratio too poor to pick the first arrival. The next closest stations were 60km and 80km away, while one of the OBSs was only 20km away. The co-deployment of DPGs allowed us to observe the first P arrival very clearly. We also recorded numerous events that were not recorded on land. About six months later, on June 15, 2004 the greater San Diego area was struck by a magnitude 5.2 earthquake on the San Clemente Fault, about 40km southwest of the OBS test deployment. Though no structural damage was reported, intensity 4 shaking occurred throughout the city, which prompted Amtrak and Sea World to shut down operations for inspections. These events are continous reminders that significant seismic hazard is caused by activity along the only poorly understood, off-shore faults in the California Borderland. Realtime seismic monitoring using cabled or moored seismic observatories is clearly needed.

  10. Cross-sections and maps showing double-difference relocated earthquakes from 1984-2000 along the Hayward and Calaveras faults, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Robert W.; Graymer, Russell W.; Jachens, Robert C.; Ponce, David A.; Wentworth, Carl M.

    2004-01-01

    We present cross-section and map views of earthquakes that occurred from 1984 to 2000 in the vicinity of the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay region, California. These earthquakes came from a catalog of events relocated using the double-difference technique, which provides superior relative locations of nearby events. As a result, structures such as fault surfaces and alignments of events along these surfaces are more sharply defined than in previous catalogs.

  11. Point mugu, california, earthquake of 21 february 1973 and its aftershocks.

    PubMed

    Ellsworth, W L; Campbell, R H; Hill, D P; Page, R A; Alewine, R W; Hanks, T C; Heaton, T H; Hileman, J A; Kanamori, H; Minster, B; Whitcomb, J H

    1973-12-14

    Seismological investigations show that the Point Mugu earthquake involved north-south crustal shortening deep within the complex fault zone that marks the southern front of the Transverse Ranges province. This earthquake sequence results from the same stress system responsible for the deformation in this province in the Pliocene through Holocene and draws attention to the significant earthquake hazard that the southern frontal fault system poses to the Los Angeles metropolitan area. PMID:17810814

  12. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of 17 January 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, L.; Aki, K.; Boore, D.; Celebi, M.; Donnellan, A.; Hall, J.; Harris, R.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hudnut, K.; Hutton, K.; Johnston, M.; Joyner, W.; Kanamori, H.; Marshall, G.; Michael, A.; Mori, J.; Murray, M.; Ponti, D.; Reasenberg, P.; Schwartz, D.; Seeber, L.; Shakal, A.; Simpson, R.; Thio, H.; Tinsley, J.; Todorovska, M.; Trifunac, M.; Wald, D.; Zoback, M.L.

    1994-01-01

    The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.The most costly American earthquake since 1906 struck Los Angeles on 17 January 1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake resulted from more than 3 meters of reverse slip on a 15-kilometer-long south-dipping thrust fault that raised the Santa Susana mountains by as much as 70 centimeters. The fault appears to be truncated by the fault that broke in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake at a depth of 8 kilometers. Of these two events, the Northridge earthquake caused many times more damage, primarily because its causative fault is directly under the city. Many types of structures were damaged, but the fracture of welds in steel-frame buildings was the greatest surprise. The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the hazard posed to Los Angeles by concealed thrust faults and the potential for strong ground shaking in moderate earthquakes.

  13. Earthquake-induced structures in sediments of Van Norman Lake, San Fernando, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sims, J.D.

    1973-01-01

    The 9 February 1971 earthquake in the San Fernando Valley damaged the Lower Van Norman Dam severely enough to warrant draining the reservoir. In March 1972 the sediment deposited on the reservoir floor was examined to determine whether the 1971 earthquake had induced sediment deformation and, if so, what types. A zone of deformational structures characterized by small-scale loads and slightly recumbent folds associated with the 1971 earthquake was discovered, in addition to two older zones of load structures. Each of the zones has been tentatively correlated with an historic earthquake.

  14. Damage and restoration of geodetic infrastructure caused by the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkinson, Kathleen M.; Stein, Ross S.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Satalich, Jay; Richards, John H.

    1996-01-01

    We seek to restore the integrity of the geodetic network in the San Fernando, Simi, Santa Clarita Valleys and in the northern Los Angeles Basin by remeasurement of the network and identification of BMs which experienced non-tectonic displacements associated with the Northridge earthquake. We then use the observed displacement of BMs in the network to portray or predict the permanent vertical and horizontal deformation associated with the 1994 Northridge earthquake throughout the area, including sites where we lack geodetic measurements. To accomplish this, we find the fault geometry and earthquake slip that are most compatible with the geodetic and independent seismic observations of the earthquake. We then use that fault model to predict the deformation everywhere at the earth's surface, both at locations where geodetic observations exist and also where they are absent. We compare displacements predicted for a large number of numerical models of the earthquake faulting to the coseismic displacements, treating the earthquake fault as a cut or discontinuity embedded in a stiff elastic solid. This comparison is made after non-tectonic deformation has been removed from the measured elevation changes. The fault slip produces strain in the medium and deforms the ground surface. The model compatible with seismic observations that best fits the geodetic data within their uncertainties is selected. The acceptable model fault bisects the mainshock focus, and the earthquake size , magnitude, is compatible with the earthquake size measured seismically. Our fault model was used to identify geodetic monuments on engineered structures that were anomalously displaced by the earthquake.

  15. Signatures of the seismic source in EMD-based characterization of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake recordings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhang, R.R.; Ma, S.; Hartzell, S.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we use empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to characterize the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake records and investigate the signatures carried over from the source rupture process. Comparison of the current study results with existing source inverse solutions that use traditional data processing suggests that the EMD-based characterization contains information that sheds light on aspects of the earthquake rupture process. We first summarize the fundamentals of the EMD and illustrate its features through the analysis of a hypothetical and a real record. Typically, the Northridge strong-motion records are decomposed into eight or nine intrinsic mode functions (IMF's), each of which emphasizes a different oscillation mode with different amplitude and frequency content. The first IMF has the highest-frequency content; frequency content decreases with an increase in IMF component. With the aid of a finite-fault inversion method, we then examine aspects of the source of the 1994 Northridge earthquake that are reflected in the second to fifth IMF components. This study shows that the second IMF is predominantly wave motion generated near the hypocenter, with high-frequency content that might be related to a large stress drop associated with the initiation of the earthquake. As one progresses from the second to the fifth IMF component, there is a general migration of the source region away from the hypocenter with associated longer-period signals as the rupture propagates. This study suggests that the different IMF components carry information on the earthquake rupture process that is expressed in their different frequency bands.

  16. Current progress in using multiple electromagnetic indicators to determine location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes in California and Peru (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleier, T. E.; Dunson, C.; Roth, S.; Heraud, J.; Freund, F. T.; Dahlgren, R.; Bryant, N.; Bambery, R.; Lira, A.

    2010-12-01

    Since ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic anomalies were discovered prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta, Ca. M7.0 earthquake, QuakeFinder, a small R&D group based in Palo Alto California has systematically monitored ULF magnetic signals with a network of 3-axis induction magnetometers since 2000 in California. This raw magnetometer data was collected at 20-50 samples per sec., with no preprocessing, in an attempt to collect an accurate time history of electromagnetic waveforms prior to, during, and after large earthquakes within 30 km. of these sensors. Finally in October 2007, the QuakeFinder team observed a series of strange magnetic pulsations at the Alum Rock, California site, 14 days prior to M5.4 earthquake. These magnetic signals observed were relatively short, random pulsations, not continuous waveform signals like Pc1 or Pc3 micropulsations. The magnetic pulses have a characteristic uni-polar shapes and 0.5 sec. to 30 sec. durations, much longer than lightning signals. In May of 2010, very similar pulses were observed at Tacna, Peru, 13 days prior to a M6.2 earthquake, using a QuakeFinder station jointly operated under collaboration with the Catholic University in Lima Peru (PUCP). More examples of these pulsations were sought, and a historical review of older California magnetic data discovered fewer but similar pulsations occurred at the Hollister, Ca. site operated by UC Berkeley (e.g. San Juan Bautista M5.1 earthquake on August 12, 1998). Further analysis of the direction of arrival of the magnetic pulses showed an interesting “azimuth clustering” observed in both Alum Rock, Ca. and Tacna, Peru data. The complete time series of the Alum Rock data allowed the team to analyze subsequent changes observed in magnetometer “filter banks” (0.001 Hz to 10 Hz filter bands, similar to those used by Fraser-Smith in 1989), but this time using time-adjusted limits based on time of day, time of year, Kp, and site background noise. These site-customized limits showed similar increases in 30 minute averaged energy excursions, but the 30 minute averages had a disadvantage in that they reduced the signal to noise ratio over the individual pulse counting method. In other electromagnetic monitoring methods, air conductivity instrumentation showed major changes in positive air-borne ions observed near the Alum Rock and Tacna sites, peaking during the 24 hours prior to the earthquake. The use of GOES (geosynchronous) satellite infra red (IR) data showed that an unusual apparent “night time heating” occurred in an extended area within 40+ km. of the Alum Rock site, and this IR signature peaked around the time of the magnetic pulse count peak. The combination of these 3 indicators (magnetic pulse counts, air conductivity, and IR night time heating) may be the start in determining the time (within 1-2 weeks), location (within 20-40km) and magnitude (within +/- 1 increment of Richter magnitude) of earthquake greater than M5.4

  17. The Effects of Static Coulomb, Normal and Shear Stress Changes on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, A. E.; Jackson, D. D.

    2011-12-01

    Deng & Sykes (1997) found a strong correlation between receiver earthquake location and positive increase in Coulomb stress (?CFF). Assuming a coefficient of friction of 0.6, and resolving stresses onto assumed fault planes with uniform orientation parallel to average Pacific-North American plate motion, they found that only 15% of receiver earthquakes occur in "stress shadows" where the Coulomb stress change should impede faulting. We extended their study by adding two source earthquakes (Hector Mine, 1999 and El Mayor-Cucupah, 2010), and calculating the stress changes at the locations of 134 receiver earthquakes with magnitude 4.4 and greater after 1999. We examined shear stress, normal stress, and Coulomb stress, resolving stresses onto four different hypothetical fault planes: smoothed seismicity-based planes, a weighted average of nearby fault-plane orientations, and the two nodal planes of weighed average moment tensors of nearby earthquakes. We also computed shear, normal, and Coulomb stress histories oriented according to the four choices of fault orientation, and tested the effect of total stress change on receiver earthquake magnitude. Our chi square test results indicate that, with 95% confidence, receiver earthquakes do not tend to avoid stress shadows, and that the choice of plane onto which stress is resolved does not affect the result. On average, 39% of earthquakes occur at the time of maximum stress at the event location, with no significant variation depending on the choice of rupture plane or type of stress change. We found no correlation between earthquake magnitude and total stress change at the events' locations. These results suggest that instantaneous cumulative Coulomb stress, as we and Deng & Sykes modeled it, does not strongly control the locations of future earthquakes. The lack of correlation between Coulomb stress change and magnitude suggests that modeled Coulomb stress change does not control the size of earthquakes once they nucleate.

  18. The Magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake of January 17, 1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnellan, A.

    1994-01-01

    The most damaging earthquake in the United States since 1906 struck northern Los Angeles on January 17.1994. The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake produced a maximum of more than 3 meters of reverse (up-dip) slip on a south-dipping thrust fault rooted under the San Fernando Valley and projecting north under the Santa Susana Mountains.

  19. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Performance of the Built Environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    Professional Paper 1552 focuses on the response of buildings, lifelines, highway systems, and earth structures to the earthquake. Losses to these systems totaled approximated $5.9 billion. The earthquake displaced many residents from their homes and severely disrupted transportation systems. Some significant findings were: * Approximately 16,000 housing units were uninhabitable after the earthquake including 13,000 in the San Francisco Bay region. Another 30,000-35,000 units were moderately damaged in the earthquake. Renters and low-income residents were particularly hard hit. * Failure of highway systems was the single largest cause of loss of life during the earthquake. Forty-two of the 63 earthquake fatalities died when the Cypress Viaduct in Oakland collapsed. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by the earthquake was $2 billion, about half of which was to replace the Cypress Viaduct. * Major bridge failures were the result of antiquated designs and inadequate anticipation of seismic loading. * Twenty one kilometers (13 mi) of gas-distribution lines had to be replaced in several communities and more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections had to be excavated and repaired. At least 5 electrical substations were badly damaged, overwhelming the designed redundancy of the electrical system. * Instruments in 28 buildings recorded their response to earthquake shaking that provided opportunities to understand how different types of buildings responded, the importance of site amplification, and how buildings interact with their foundation when shaken (soil structure interaction).

  20. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Preseismic Observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, Malcolm J. S., (Edited By)

    1993-01-01

    The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., Ms=7.1 earthquake provided the first opportunity in the history of fault monitoring in the United States to gather multidisciplinary preearthquake data in the near field of an M=7 earthquake. The data obtained include observations on seismicity, continuous strain, long-term ground displacement, magnetic field, and hydrology. The papers in this chapter describe these data, their implications for fault-failure mechanisms, the scale of prerupture nucleation, and earthquake prediction in general. Of the 10 papers presented here, about half identify preearthquake anomalies in the data, but some of these results are equivocal. Seismicity in the Loma Prieta region during the 20 years leading up to the earthquake was unremarkable. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that the principal southwest-dipping segment of the subsequent Loma Prieta rupture was virtually aseismic during this period. Two M=5 earthquakes did occur near Lake Elsman near the junction of the Sargent and San Andreas faults within 2.5 and 15 months of, and 10 km to the north of, the Loma Prieta epicenter. Although these earthquakes were not on the subsequent rupture plane of the Loma Prieta earthquake and other M=5 earthquakes occurred in the preceding 25 years, it is now generally accepted that these events were, in some way, foreshocks to the main event.

  1. Three-Dimensional Seismic Velocity Structure and Precise Earthquake Relocations in the Salton Trough, Southern California

    E-print Network

    Lin, Guoqing

    transform faults separated by the Salton Sea transten- sional domain (see Fig. 1). The southernmost SAF Three-Dimensional Seismic Velocity Structure and Precise Earthquake Relocations in the Salton-precision earthquake relocations between 1981 and 2010 near the Salton Trough and the San Jacinto fault zone. The simul

  2. Postearthquake relaxation and aftershock accumulation linearly related after the 2003 M 6.5 Chengkung, Taiwan, and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Yu, S.-B.

    2007-01-01

    We treat both the number of earthquakes and the deformation following a mainshock as the superposition of a steady background accumulation and the post-earthquake process. The preseismic displacement and seismicity rates ru and rE are used as estimates of the background rates. Let t be the time after the mainshock, u(t) + u0 the postseismic displacement less the background accumulation rut, and ??N(t) the observed cumulative number of postseismic earthquakes less the background accumulation rE t. For the first 160 days (duration limited by the occurrence of another nearby earthquake) following the Chengkung (M 6.5, 10 December 2003, eastern Taiwan) and the first 560 days following the Parkfield (M 6.0, 28 September 2004, central California) earthquakes u(t) + u0 is a linear function of ??N(t). The aftershock accumulation ??N(t) for both earthquakes is described by the modified Omori Law d??N/dt ?? (1 + t/??)-p with p = 0.96 and ?? = 0.03 days. Although the Chengkung earthquake involved sinistral, reverse slip on a moderately dipping fault and the Parkfield earthquake right-lateral slip on a near-vertical fault, the earthquakes share an unusual feature: both occurred on faults exhibiting interseismic fault creep at the surface. The source of the observed postseismic deformation appears to be afterslip on the coseismic rupture. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and N(t) suggests that this afterslip also generates the aftershocks. The linear relation between u(t) + u0 and ??N(t) obtains after neither the 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine (southern California) nor the 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi (central Taiwan) earthquakes, neither of which occurred on fault segments exhibiting fault creep.

  3. Seismotectonics of the 2010 El Mayor Cucapah - Indiviso Earthquake and its Relation to Seismic Hazard in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, J. J.; Gonzalez Ortega, A.; Bock, Y.; Fialko, Y.; Fielding, E. J.; Fletcher, J. M.; Galetzka, J. E.; Hudnut, K. W.; Munguia, L.; Nelson, S. M.; Rockwell, T. K.; Sandwell, D. T.; Stock, J.

    2010-12-01

    The April 4th, 2010 Mw 7.2 earthquake was the largest earthquake in over 100 years of known historical seismicity in the Salton Trough region. It was a relatively benign earthquake, with only two deaths related to its occurrence. It produced, however, profound agricultural and ecological changes at the southern section of the Mexicali Valley, where a new fault called the Indiviso fault, is shown to have ruptured by analysis of ALOS PALSAR and Landsat imagery. The Indiviso fault connects the ridge-transform and continental transform tectonic regimes with a straight linkage, as revealed by this earthquake, but this event also simultaneously involved oblique normal faulting and cross-faulting. The earthquake was complex, with at least three distinct slip pulses. It originated as a normal rupture along the ~18 km long, N-S striking El Mayor-Hardy fault along the east margin of the Sierra El Mayor. After 10 seconds, two large bursts of energy were released, one to the NW and one to the SE, producing the total moment release equivalent to Mw 7.25. The NW ruptures reactivated portions of the Pescadores, Borrego and Paso Superior faults with minor slip along the Laguna Salada and several other faults. This section had a dominant right lateral strike slip sense of motion with the NE side down. To the SE of the epicenter, disruption occurred along the dominantly strike-slip Indiviso fault, with a SW side down component of dip slip. The epicentral aftershock area, including its main aftershock to the NW, is >120 km in length; the surficial faulting occurs along ~110 km with 6-9 km of splaying to the N-NE at the NW end and to the S-SW at the SE end. The El Mayor Cucapah - Indiviso event follows nine M>6.5 earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system in the past 80 years between the head of the Gulf of California and the Transverse Ranges. Long, straight fault segments capable of larger earthquakes, and that have not ruptured historically, include portions of the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, and the entire southern San Andreas Fault.

  4. Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 ?g/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 ?g/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 ?g/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

  5. Liquefaction and other ground failures in Imperial County, California, from the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCrink, Timothy P.; Pridmore, Cynthia L.; Tinsley, John C., III; Sickler, Robert R.; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Stewart, Jonathan P.

    2011-01-01

    The Colorado River Delta region of southern Imperial Valley, California, and Mexicali Valley, Baja California, is a tectonically dynamic area characterized by numerous active faults and frequent large seismic events. Significant earthquakes that have been accompanied by surface fault rupture and/or soil liquefaction occurred in this region in 1892 (M7.1), 1915 (M6.3; M7.1), 1930 (M5.7), 1940 (M6.9), 1950 (M5.4), 1957 (M5.2), 1968 (6.5), 1979 (6.4), 1980 (M6.1), 1981 (M5.8), and 1987 (M6.2; M6.8). Following this trend, the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010, ruptured approximately 120 kilometers along several known faults in Baja California. Liquefaction caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was widespread throughout the southern Imperial Valley but concentrated in the southwest corner of the valley, southwest of the city centers of Calexico and El Centro where ground motions were highest. Although there are few strong motion recordings in the very western part of the area, the recordings that do exist indicate that ground motions were on the order of 0.3 to 0.6g where the majority of liquefaction occurrences were found. More distant liquefaction occurrences, at Fites Road southwest of Brawley and along Rosita Canal northwest of Holtville were triggered where ground motions were about 0.2 g. Damage to roads was associated mainly with liquefaction of sandy river deposits beneath bridge approach fills, and in some cases liquefaction within the fills. Liquefaction damage to canal and drain levees was not always accompanied by vented sand, but the nature of the damage leads the authors to infer that liquefaction was involved in the majority of observed cases. Liquefaction-related damage to several public facilities - Calexico Waste Water Treatment Plant, Fig Lagoon levee system, and Sunbeam Lake Dam in particular - appears to be extensive. The cost to repair these facilities to prevent future liquefaction damage will likely be prohibitive. As such, it is likely that liquefaction will recur at these facilities during the next large earthquake in this area.

  6. Comments on baseline correction of digital strong-motion data: Examples from the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, D.M.; Stephens, C.D.; Joyner, W.B.

    2002-01-01

    Residual displacements for large earthquakes can sometimes be determined from recordings on modern digital instruments, but baseline offsets of unknown origin make it difficult in many cases to do so. To recover the residual displacement, we suggest tailoring a correction scheme by studying the character of the velocity obtained by integration of zeroth-order-corrected acceleration and then seeing if the residual displacements are stable when the various parameters in the particular correction scheme are varied. For many seismological and engineering purposes, however, the residual displacement are of lesser importance than ground motions at periods less than about 20 sec. These ground motions are often recoverable with simple baseline correction and low-cut filtering. In this largely empirical study, we illustrate the consequences of various correction schemes, drawing primarily from digital recordings of the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. We show that with simple processing the displacement waveforms for this event are very similar for stations separated by as much as 20 km. We also show that a strong pulse on the transverse component was radiated from the Hector Mine earthquake and propagated with little distortion to distances exceeding 170 km; this pulse leads to large response spectral amplitudes around 10 sec.

  7. San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catchings, R.D.; Rymer, M.J.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

  8. Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauber, J.; Thatcher, W.; Solomon, S.C.; Lisowski, M.

    1994-01-01

    Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

  9. Offshore and onshore liquefaction at Moss Landing spit, central California - result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, H.G.; Chase, T.E.; Hicks, K.R. ); Gardner-Taggart, J.; Ledbetter, M.T.; Barminski, R. ); Baxter, C. )

    1991-09-01

    As a result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta (Santa Cruz Mountains, California) earthquake, liquefaction of the fluvial, estuarine, eolian, and beach sediments under a sand spit destroyed the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories and damaged other structures and utilities. Initial studies suggested that the liquefaction was a local phenomenon. More detailed offshore investigations, however, indicate that it occurred over a large area (maximum 8 km{sup 2}) during or shortly after the earthquake with movement of unconsolidated sediment toward and into the head of Monterey submarine canyon. This conclusion is supported by side-scan sonographs, high-resolution seismic-reflection and bathymetric profiles, onshore and sea-floor photographs, and underwater video tapes. Many distinct lobate features were identified on the shallow shelf. These features almost certainly were the result of the October 17 earthquake; they were subsequently destroyed by winter storms. In addition, fresh slump scars and recently dislodged mud debris were found on the upper, southern wall of Monterey submarine canyon.

  10. A search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, M.-A.; Werner, M. J.; Woessner, J.; Wiemer, S.

    2014-04-01

    Secondary triggering of aftershocks is widely observed and often ascribed to secondary static stress transfer. However, small to moderate earthquakes are generally disregarded in estimates of Coulomb stress changes (?CFS), either because of source parameter uncertainties or a perceived lack of importance. We use recently published high-quality focal mechanisms and hypocenters to reassess the role of small to moderate earthquakes for static stress triggering of aftershocks during the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence. We compare the ?CFS imparted by aftershocks (2?M?6) onto subsequent aftershocks with the total ?CFS induced by the M>6 main shocks. We find that incremental stress changes between aftershock pairs are potentially more often positive than expected over intermediate distances. Cumulative aftershock stress changes are not reliable for receivers with nearby aftershock stress sources because we exclude unrealistic aftershock stress shadows that result from uniform slip models. Nonetheless, 27% of aftershocks receive greater positive stress from aftershocks than from the main shocks. Overall, 85% of aftershocks are encouraged by the main shocks, while adding secondary stress encourages only 79%. We infer that source parameter uncertainties of small aftershocks remain too large to convincingly demonstrate (or rule out) that secondary stress transfer induces aftershocks. An important exception concerns aftershocks in main shock stress shadows: well-resolved secondary stress from detected aftershocks rarely compensates negative main shock stress; these aftershocks require a different triggering mechanism.

  11. Assessment of the relative ratio of correlated and uncorrelated waiting times in the Southern California earthquakes catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matcharashvili, Teimuraz; Chelidze, Tamaz; Zhukova, Natalia

    2015-09-01

    In the present study, we investigated the interevent time interval distribution of earthquakes in Southern California. We analyzed and compared datasets of waiting times between consecutive earthquakes and time structure-distorted datasets. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of waiting time values in the original catalogue that can be regarded as statistically distinguishable or indistinguishable from the baseline time intervals datasets where the original structure of the temporal distribution of earthquakes was disrupted. We compiled two types of time structure-distorted baseline sequences, which comprised mean values of: (a) shuffled original interevent data and (b) interevent times data from time-randomized catalogues. To compare the dynamical characteristics of the original and time structure-distorted baseline sequences, we used several data analysis methods such as power spectrum regression, detrended fluctuation, and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We also tested the nonlinear structure of the original and baseline sequences using the magnitude and sign scaling analysis method. We calculated theZscore in order to assess whether the interevent time values in the original dataset shared statistical similarity or dissimilarity with the time structure-distorted baseline interevent data sequence. We compared the interevent time values in the original dataset with the mean baseline interevent times computed for two types of time structure-distorted sequences. The results showed that about 30% of the original interevent times were statistically indistinguishable from the mean of the shuffled dataset and 10% from the mean of the time structure-distorted baseline interevent dataset. We performed similar analyses for other catalogues obtained from different parts of the world. According to the results of this analysis, the proportion of events in the original catalogues that were indistinguishable from sequences with disturbed time structure did not contradict the results obtained for the Southern California catalogue.

  12. Lower crustal earthquake swarms beneath Mammoth Mountain, California - evidence for the magmatic roots to the Mammoth Mountain mafic volcanic field?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D. P.; Shelly, D. R.

    2010-12-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a cluster of dacitic domes erupted ~ 68 ka. It stands on the SW topographic rim of Long Valley caldera in eastern CA. Structurally, it is outboard of the caldera ring-fracture system and its magmatic system is genetically distinct from that of the caldera. It resides within a field of mafic (basaltic) vents that erupted between 190 - 8 ka. A series of phreatic explosions from the north flank of the mountain some 700 ybp attest to the infusion of heat to shallow depths shortly prior to the 600 ybp eruptions of the Inyo Domes 6 to 12 km north of the Mountain. Unrest beneath Mammoth Mountain since 1980 has included 1) swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the upper 10 km of the crust that define concentric elliptical ring-like patterns centered beneath the summit, 2) mid-crustal (depths 10 to 20 km) long-period volcanic earthquakes, 3) the onset of diffuse CO2 degassing in 1990 following an 11-month-long swarm of shallow (<10 km), brittle-failure earthquakes in 1989, 4) occasional very-long-period earthquakes at depths of ~ 3 km, and 5) brief swarms of lower-crustal, brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km, including sizable episodes June 16-17, 2006 and September 29-30, 2009. Seismic waveform correlation analysis at multiple stations reveals that these lower-crustal, brittle-failure swarms consist of tens to hundreds of repeated similar events and also serves to identify many events not included in the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) catalog. In the case of the 2009 episode, an evolution in waveform is clearly discernible over the sequence, suggesting a corresponding evolution in source location or mechanism. Work is ongoing to take advantage of the waveform similarity to estimate precise hypocentral locations of these events in order to distinguish between these possibilities.We suggest that the brittle-failure earthquakes at depths of 20 to 30 km are occurring within the more mafic mid- to lower-crust, which can remain in the brittle domain to temperatures as high as ~700o C. Above these deep events are two distinct shallower zones of seismicity. The mid-crustal long-period earthquakes between 10 and 20 km are presumably occurring within the silicic crust, but below the rheological transition from brittle to plastic behavior, expected to occur at temperatures of ~350 to 400o C. Above this transition are shallow brittle-failure earthquakes, in the upper 8 kilometers of the silicic crust. These lower crustal brittle-failure earthquakes are similar in depth and tectonic setting to those that occurred beneath the Sierra Nevada crest in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe in late 2003, which Smith et al. (Science, 2004) concluded were associated with a magmatic intrusion in the lower crust. The Mammoth sequences, however, are much shorter in duration (1-2 days compared with several months) and have no detectable accompanying geodetic signal. Thus, there is no clear evidence for a significant intrusion associated with these deep swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain.

  13. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Liquefaction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake both reconfirmed the vulnerability of areas in the San Francisco-Monterey Bay region to liquefaction and provided an opportunity to test methodologies for predicting liquefaction that have been developed since the mid-1970's. This vulnerability is documented in the chapter edited by O'Rourke and by the investigators in this chapter who describe case histories of liquefaction damage and warn us about the potential for even greater damage from liquefaction if an earthquake similar to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, but located closer to their study sites, were to occur.

  14. The M7 October 21, 1868 Hayward Earthquake, Northern California-140 Years Later

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Boatwright, J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Garcia, S.

    2007-12-01

    October 21, 2008 marks the 140th anniversary of the M7 1868 Hayward earthquake. This large earthquake, which occurred slightly before 8 AM, caused extensive damage to San Francisco Bay Area and remains the nation's 12th most lethal earthquake. Property loss was extensive and about 30 people were killed. This earthquake culminated a decade-long series of earthquakes in the Bay Area which started with an M~6 earthquake in the southern Peninsula in 1856, followed by a series of four M5.8 to M6.1 sized earthquakes along the northern Calaveras fault, and ended with a M~6.5 earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in 1865. Despite this flurry of quakes, the shaking from the 1868 earthquake was the strongest that the new towns and growing cities of the Bay Area had ever experienced. The effect on the brick buildings of the time was devastating: walls collapsed in San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose, and buildings cracked as far away as Napa, Santa Rosa, and Hollister. The area that was strongly shaken (at Modified Mercalli Intensity VII or higher) encompassed about 2,300 km2. Aftershocks continued into November 1868. Surface cracking of the ground along the southern end of the Hayward Fault was traced from Warm Springs in Fremont northward 32 km to San Leandro. As Lawson (1908) reports, "the evidence to the northward of San Leandro is not very satisfactory. The country was then unsettled, and the information consisted of reports of cow- boys riding on the range". Analysis of historical triangulation data suggest that the fault moved as far north as Berkeley, and from these data the average slip along the fault is inferred to be about 1.9 ± 0.4 meters. The paleoseismic record from the southern end of the Hayward Fault provides evidence for 10 earthquakes before 1868. The average interval between these earthquakes is 170 ± 80 years, but the last five earthquakes have had an average interval of only 140 ± 50 years. The 1868 Hayward earthquake and more recent analogs such as the 1995 Kobe earthquake are stark reminders of the awesome energy waiting to be released from below the east side of the San Francisco Bay along the Hayward Fault. The population at risk from a Hayward Fault earthquake is now 100 times larger than in 1868. The infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay Area has been tested only by the relatively remote 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To help focus public attention on these hazards, the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance has been formed, consisting of public and private sector agencies and corporations (see their website www.1868alliance.org). The Alliance is planning a series of activities leading up to the 140th anniversary on October 21, 2008. These include public forums, conferences, commemoration events, publications, websites, videos, and public service announcements.

  15. Borehole strainmeter measurements spanning the 2014, Mw6.0 South Napa Earthquake, California: The effect from instrument calibration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, John O.

    2015-01-01

    The 24 August 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California earthquake produced significant offsets on 12 borehole strainmeters in the San Francisco Bay area. These strainmeters are located between 24 and 80 km from the source and the observed offsets ranged up to 400 parts-per-billion (ppb), which exceeds their nominal precision by a factor of 100. However, the observed offsets of tidally calibrated strains differ by up to 130 ppb from predictions based on a moment tensor derived from seismic data. The large misfit can be attributed to a combination of poor instrument calibration and better modeling of the strain fit from the earthquake. Borehole strainmeters require in-situ calibration, which historically has been accomplished by comparing their measurements of Earth tides with the strain-tides predicted by a model. Although the borehole strainmeter accurately measure the deformation within the borehole, the long-wavelength strain signals from tides or other tectonic processes recorded in the borehole are modified by the presence of the borehole and the elastic properties of the grout and the instrument. Previous analyses of surface-mounted, strainmeter data and their relationship with the predicted tides suggest that tidal models could be in error by 30%. The poor fit of the borehole strainmeter data from this earthquake can be improved by simultaneously varying the components of the model tides up to 30% and making small adjustments to the point-source model of the earthquake, which reduces the RMS misfit from 130 ppb to 18 ppb. This suggests that relying on tidal models to calibrate borehole strainmeters significantly reduces their accuracy.

  16. A possible geodetic anomaly observed prior to the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Lisowski, M.; Prescott, W.H.; Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    1990-07-01

    Monthly measurements since mid-1981 of distance from a geodetic station located 11 km from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake (M{sub s} = 7.1; October 17, 1989) to three stations 30 to 40 km distant provides an unusually complete record of deformation in the epicentral region in the years prior to an earthquake. Roughly 1.3 years before the earthquake, at about the time of the first magnitude-5 foreshock, the rate of change in line length for two of the lines appears to change; the rate for the third line does not change. Other similar, though smaller, changes in rate are apparent in the eight-year record. Thus, there is marginal evidence for a change in deformation rate about one year before the Loma Prieta earthquake, but that change need not be a precursor.

  17. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7. 3 Landers, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, D.P.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Michael, A.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Simpson, R.W.; Walter, S. ); Arabaz, W.J.; Nava, S.; Pechmann, J.C.; Smith, R.B. ); Beroza, G. ); Brumbaugh, D. ); Brune, J.N.; dePolo, D. ); Castro, R.; Munguia, L.; Vidal, A.; Wong, V. ); Davis, S. ); Gomberg, J.; Harmsen, S. ); House, L. ); Jackson, S.M. ); Jones, L. ); Keller, R. ); Malone, S. ); Sanford, A. (New Mexico Inst. of Mini

    1993-06-11

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1,250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma). 26 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hill, D P; Reasenberg, P A; Michael, A; Arabaz, W J; Beroza, G; Brumbaugh, D; Brune, J N; Castro, R; Davis, S; Depolo, D; Ellsworth, W L; Gomberg, J; Harmsen, S; House, L; Jackson, S M; Johnston, M J; Jones, L; Keller, R; Malone, S; Munguia, L; Nava, S; Pechmann, J C; Sanford, A; Simpson, R W; Smith, R B; Stark, M; Stickney, M; Vidal, A; Walter, S; Wong, V; Zollweg, J

    1993-06-11

    The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma). PMID:17810202

  19. Birth of a fault: Connecting the Kern County and Walker Pass, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bawden, G.W.; Michael, A.J.; Kellogg, L.H.

    1999-01-01

    A band of seismicity transects the southern Sierra Nevada range between the northeastern end of the site of the 1952 MW (moment magnitude) 7.3 Kern County earthquake and the site of the 1946 MW 6.1 Walker Pass earthquake. Relocated earthquakes in this band, which lacks a surface expression, better delineate the northeast-trending seismic lineament and resolve complex structure near the Walker Pass mainshock. Left-lateral earthquake focal planes are rotated counterclockwise from the strike of the seismic lineament, consistent with slip on shear fractures such as those observed in the early stages of fault development in laboratory experiments. We interpret this seismic lineament as a previously unrecognized, incipient, currently blind, strike-slip fault, a unique example of a newly forming structure.

  20. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Building Structures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, Mehmet

    1998-01-01

    Several approaches are used to assess the performance of the built environment following an earthquake -- preliminary damage surveys conducted by professionals, detailed studies of individual structures, and statistical analyses of groups of structures. Reports of damage that are issued by many organizations immediately following an earthquake play a key role in directing subsequent detailed investigations. Detailed studies of individual structures and statistical analyses of groups of structures may be motivated by particularly good or bad performance during an earthquake. Beyond this, practicing engineers typically perform stress analyses to assess the performance of a particular structure to vibrational levels experienced during an earthquake. The levels may be determined from recorded or estimated ground motions; actual levels usually differ from design levels. If a structure has seismic instrumentation to record response data, the estimated and recorded response and behavior of the structure can be compared.

  1. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Lifelines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, Anshel J., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    To the general public who had their televisions tuned to watch the World Series, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a lifelines earthquake. It was the images seen around the world of the collapsed Cypress Street viaduct, with the frantic and heroic efforts to pull survivors from the structure that was billowing smoke; the collapsed section of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and subsequent home video of a car plunging off the open span; and the spectacular fire in the Marina District of San Francisco fed by a broken gasline. To many of the residents of the San Francisco Bay region, the relation of lifelines to the earthquake was characterized by sitting in the dark because of power outage, the inability to make telephone calls because of network congestion, and the slow and snarled traffic. Had the public been aware of the actions of the engineers and tradespeople working for the utilities and other lifeline organizations on the emergency response and restoration of lifelines, the lifeline characteristics of this earthquake would have been even more significant. Unobserved by the public were the warlike devastation in several electrical-power substations, the 13 miles of gas-distribution lines that had to be replaced in several communities, and the more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections that had to be excavated and repaired. Like the 1971 San Fernando, Calif., earthquake, which was a seminal event for activity to improve the earthquake performance of lifelines, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that the tasks of preparing lifelines in 'earthquake country' were incomplete-indeed, new lessons had to be learned.

  2. Paleoseismic evidence of clustered earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, California

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, L.B.; Sieh, K.

    1994-04-01

    Exposures we have excavated across the San Andreas fault contradict the hypothesis that part of the fault in the Carrizo Plain is unusually strong and experiences relatively infrequent rupture. The exposures record evidence of at least seven surface-rupturing earthquakes which have been approximately dated by accelerated mass spectrometry radiocarbon analysis of detrital charcoal and buried in-situ plants. Five large earthquakes have occurred since 1218 A.D. The most recent earthquake, event A, was the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, which we have associated with 6.6-10 m of dextral slip along the main fault trace. The penultimate earthquake, event B, most likely occurred within the period A.D. 1405-1510. Slip from either events B and C combined or from event B alone, totals 7-11 m. Three earthquakes, events C, D, and E, occurred in a temporal cluster prior to event B and after approximately A.D. 1218. The average recurrence interval within this cluster is 73-116 years, depending on assumptions. Events F and G occurred after 200 years B.C. A depositional hiatus between events E and F may hide evidence of additional earthquakes. Events B and D within the Carrizo cluster of A.D. 1218-1510 may correlate with events T (A.D. 1329-1363) and V (A.D. 1465-1495) at Pallett Creek on the Mojave `segment` of the fault. This suggests two fault ruptures similar in length to that of 1857. Events C and E apparently did not rupture the Mojave section, which suggests that the Carrizo segment has ruptured independently or in combination with segments to the north. Irregular repeat times of large earthquakes suggest a pattern of clustered events at the end of seismic `supercycles.`

  3. School Site Preparedness for the Safety of California's Children K-12. Official Report of the Northridge Earthquake Task Force on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Legislature, Sacramento. Senate Select Committee on the Northridge Earthquake.

    This report asserts that disaster preparedness at all school sites must become a major and immediate priority. Should a disaster equaling the magnitude of the Northridge earthquake occur, the current varying levels of site preparedness may not adequately protect California's children. The report describes why the state's children are not safe and…

  4. Fault Slip Distribution of the 1999 Mw7.1 Hector Mine, California, Earthquake, Estimated from Satellite Radar and GPS Measurements

    E-print Network

    Amelung, Falk

    Fault Slip Distribution of the 1999 Mw7.1 Hector Mine, California, Earthquake, Estimated from Satellite Radar and GPS Measurements Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 92, No. 4, pp use a combination of satellite radar and GPS data to estimate the slip distribution of the 1999 Mw7

  5. Sedimentary record of the 1872 earthquake and "Tsunami" at Owens Lake, southeast California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smoot, J.P.; Litwin, R.J.; Bischoff, J.L.; Lund, S.J.

    2000-01-01

    In 1872, a magnitude 7.5-7.7 earthquake vertically offset the Owens Valley fault by more than a meter. An eyewitness reported a large wave on the surface of Owens Lake, presumably initiated by the earthquake. Physical evidence of this event is found in cores and trenches from Owens Lake, including soft-sediment deformation and fault offsets. A graded pebbly sand truncates these features, possibly over most of the lake floor, reflecting the "tsunami" wave. Confirmation of the timing of the event is provided by abnormally high lead concentrations in the sediment immediately above and below these proposed earthquake deposits derived from lead-smelting plants that operated near the eastern lake margin from 1869-1876. The bottom velocity in the deepest part of the lake needed to transport the coarsest grain sizes in the graded pebbly sand provides an estimate of the minimum initial 'tsunami' wave height at 37 cm. This is less than the wave height calculated from long-wave numerical models (about 55 cm) using average fault displacement during the earthquake. Two other graded sand deposits associated with soft-sediment deformation in the Owens Lake record are less than 3000 years old, and are interpreted as evidence of older earthquake and tsunami events. Offsets of the Owens Valley fault elsewhere in the valley indicate that at least two additional large earthquakes occurred during the Holocene, which is consistent with our observations in this lacustrine record.

  6. Slip partitioning of the Calaveras fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bakun, W.H.; Lindh, A.G. )

    1990-06-10

    Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8-9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. The spatial pattern of pre-main shock microseismicity surrounding the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill hypocenters is similar to the pattern of the post-main shock microseismicity. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. The authors propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations they recognize six aseismic zones where they expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras fault. From an analysis of historic seismic data they establish the main shock rupture history for each aseismic zone and identify two zones that are the most likely sites for the next M > 5 earthquakes. The first zone is located near Gilroy and was last ruptured by a M5.2 earthquake in 1949. The second zone is located south of Calaveras Reservoir and north of the 1988 M5.1 Alum Rock earthquake. It has not slipped seismically since at least 1903, and the size of the aseismic region is sufficiently large to sustain a M5.5 earthquake.

  7. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Aftershocks and Postseismic Effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reasenberg, Paul A., (Edited By)

    1997-01-01

    While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

  8. Earthquake location data for the southern Great Basin of Nevada and California: 1984 through 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Harmsen, S.C.; Rogers, A.M.

    1987-01-01

    This report presents data in map and table form for earthquake parameters such as hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes for earthquakes located by the southern Great Basin Seismic network for the time period January 1, 1984, through December 31, 1986. These maps show concentrations of earthquakes in regions previously noted to be seismically active, including the Pahranagat Shear Zone, Pahroc Mountains, southern Nevada Test Site, Timber Mountain, Black Mountain, Gold Mountain, Montezuma Range, and Grapevine Mountains. A concentration of earthquake activity in the Reveille Range was observed in 1986, in a previously inactive area. The northern Nevada Test Site had fewer earthquakes than a comparable area of the southern Nevada Test Site, indicating that the low-yield nuclear testing program is not currently triggering significant numbers of aftershocks. Eight microearthquakes occurred at Yucca Mountain during the 1984-1986 monitoring period. Depths of focus for well-located earthquakes continue to indicate a bimodal distribution, with peaks at 1 to 2 and 8 to 9 km below sea-level and a local minimum at 4 to 5 km. Focal mechanisms range from strike slip to normal slip. No dependence of slip mode on depth or magnitude is evident. 8 refs., 46 figs., 5 tabs.

  9. The dependence of peak horizontal acceleration on magnitude, distance, and site effects for small-magnitude earthquakes in California and eastern North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, K.W.

    1989-01-01

    One-hundred and ninety free-field accelerograms recorded on deep soil (>10 m deep) were used to study the near-source scaling characteristics of peak horizontal acceleration for 91 earthquakes (2.5 ??? ML ??? 5.0) located primarily in California. An analysis of residuals based on an additional 171 near-source accelerograms from 75 earthquakes indicated that accelerograms recorded in building basements sited on deep soil have 30 per cent lower acclerations, and that free-field accelerograms recorded on shallow soil (???10 m deep) have 82 per cent higher accelerations than free-field accelerograms recorded on deep soil. An analysis of residuals based on 27 selected strong-motion recordings from 19 earthquakes in Eastern North America indicated that near-source accelerations associated with frequencies less than about 25 Hz are consistent with predictions based on attenuation relationships derived from California. -from Author

  10. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.

    2012-12-01

    The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist concerns about tsunami hazard signs. Over the seventeen-year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 84 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased from 51 to 89 percent and knowing what the Cascadia subduction zone is from 16 to 57 percent. In 2009, the RCTWG was recognized by the Western States Seismic Policy Council (WSSPC) with an award for innovation and in 2010, the RCTWG-sponsored class "Living on Shaky Ground" was awarded WSSPC's overall Award in Excellence. The RCTWG works closely with CGS and Cal EMA on a number of projects including tsunami mapping, evacuation zone planning, siren policy, tsunami safety for boaters, and public education messaging. Current projects include working with CGS to develop a "playbook" tsunami mapping product to illustrate the expected effects from a range of tsunami source events and assist local governments in focusing future response actions to reflect the range expected impacts from distant source events. Preparedness efforts paid off on March 11, 2011 when a tsunami warning was issued for the region and significant damage occurred in harbor regions of Del Norte County and Mendocino County. Full-scale evacuations were carried out in a coordinated manner and the majority of the commercial fishing fleet in Crescent City was able to exit the harbor before the tsunami arrived.

  11. Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Wiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Hainzl, S.

    2011-08-01

    Geothermal energy is becoming an important clean energy source, however, the stimulation of a reservoir for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is associated with seismic risk due to induced seismicity. Seismicity occurring due to the water injection at depth have to be well recorded and monitored. To mitigate the seismic risk of a damaging event, an appropriate alarm system needs to be in place for each individual experiment. In recent experiments, the so-called traffic-light alarm system, based on public response, local magnitude and peak ground velocity, was used. We aim to improve the pre-defined alarm system by introducing a probability-based approach; we retrospectively model the ongoing seismicity in real time with multiple statistical forecast models and then translate the forecast to seismic hazard in terms of probabilities of exceeding a ground motion intensity level. One class of models accounts for the water injection rate, the main parameter that can be controlled by the operators during an experiment. By translating the models into time-varying probabilities of exceeding various intensity levels, we provide tools which are well understood by the decision makers and can be used to determine thresholds non-exceedance during a reservoir stimulation; this, however, remains an entrepreneurial or political decision of the responsible project coordinators. We introduce forecast models based on the data set of an EGS experiment in the city of Basel. Between 2006 December 2 and 8, approximately 11 500 m3 of water was injected into a 5-km-deep well at high pressures. A six-sensor borehole array, was installed by the company Geothermal Explorers Limited (GEL) at depths between 300 and 2700 m around the well to monitor the induced seismicity. The network recorded approximately 11 200 events during the injection phase, more than 3500 of which were located. With the traffic-light system, actions where implemented after an ML 2.7 event, the water injection was reduced and then stopped after another ML 2.5 event. A few hours later, an earthquake with ML 3.4, felt within the city, occurred, which led to bleed-off of the well. A risk study was later issued with the outcome that the experiment could not be resumed. We analyse the statistical features of the sequence and show that the sequence is well modelled with the Omori-Utsu law following the termination of water injection. Based on this model, the sequence will last 31+29/-14 years to reach the background level. We introduce statistical models based on Reasenberg and Jones and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, commonly used to model aftershock sequences. We compare and test different model setups to simulate the sequences, varying the number of fixed and free parameters. For one class of the ETAS models, we account for the flow rate at the injection borehole. We test the models against the observed data with standard likelihood tests and find the ETAS model accounting for the on flow rate to perform best. Such a model may in future serve as a valuable tool for designing probabilistic alarm systems for EGS experiments.

  12. Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Marina District

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Rourke, Thomas D., (Edited By)

    1992-01-01

    During the earthquake, a total land area of about 4,300 km2 was shaken with seismic intensities that can cause significant damage to structures. The area of the Marina District of San Francisco is only 4.0 km2--less than 0.1 percent of the area most strongly affected by the earthquake--but its significance with respect to engineering, seismology, and planning far outstrips its proportion of shaken terrain and makes it a centerpiece for lessons learned from the earthquake. The Marina District provides perhaps the most comprehensive case history of seismic effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. The reports assembled in this chapter, which provide an account of these seismic effects, constitute a unique collection of studies on site, as well as infrastructure and societal, response that cover virtually all aspects of the earthquake, ranging from incoming ground waves to the outgoing airwaves used for emergency communication. The Marina District encompasses the area bounded by San Francisco Bay on the north, the Presidio on the west, and Lombard Street and Van Ness Avenue on the south and east, respectively. Nearly all of the earthquake damage in the Marina District, however, occurred within a considerably smaller area of about 0.75 km2, bounded by San Francisco Bay and Baker, Chestnut, and Buchanan Streets. At least five major aspects of earthquake response in the Marina District are covered by the reports in this chapter: (1) dynamic site response, (2) soil liquefaction, (3) lifeline performance, (4) building performance, and (5) emergency services.

  13. Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka'aki; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2015-07-01

    Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1-2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

  14. Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, John B.; Holliday, James R.; Yoder, Mark; Sachs, Michael K.; Donnellan, Andrea; Turcotte, Donald L.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Klein, William; Kellogg, Louise H.

    2011-10-01

    We discuss the long-standing question of whether the probability for large earthquake occurrence (magnitudes m > 6.0) is highest during time periods of smaller event activation, or highest during time periods of smaller event quiescence. The physics of the activation model are based on an idea from the theory of nucleation, that a small magnitude earthquake has a finite probability of growing into a large earthquake. The physics of the quiescence model is based on the idea that the occurrence of smaller earthquakes (here considered as magnitudes m > 3.5) may be due to a mechanism such as critical slowing down, in which fluctuations in systems with long-range interactions tend to be suppressed prior to large nucleation events. To illuminate this question, we construct two end-member forecast models illustrating, respectively, activation and quiescence. The activation model assumes only that activation can occur, either via aftershock nucleation or triggering, but expresses no choice as to which mechanism is preferred. Both of these models are in fact a means of filtering the seismicity time-series to compute probabilities. Using 25 yr of data from the California-Nevada catalogue of earthquakes, we show that of the two models, activation and quiescence, the latter appears to be the better model, as judged by backtesting (by a slight but not significant margin). We then examine simulation data from a topologically realistic earthquake model for California seismicity, Virtual California. This model includes not only earthquakes produced from increases in stress on the fault system, but also background and off-fault seismicity produced by a BASS-ETAS driving mechanism. Applying the activation and quiescence forecast models to the simulated data, we come to the opposite conclusion. Here, the activation forecast model is preferred to the quiescence model, presumably due to the fact that the BASS component of the model is essentially a model for activated seismicity. These results lead to the (weak) conclusion that California seismicity may be characterized more by quiescence than by activation, and that BASS-ETAS models may not be robustly applicable to the real data.

  15. Processed seismic motion records from earthquakes (1982--1993): Recorded at Scotty`s Castle, California

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-10-01

    As part of the contract with the US Department of Energy, Nevada Operations Office (DOE/NV), URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume) maintained a network of seismographs to monitor the ground motion generated by the underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismographs were located in the communities surrounding the NTS and the Las Vegas valley. When these seismographs were not used for monitoring the UNE generated motions, a limited number of seismographs were maintained for monitoring motion generated by other than UNEs (e.g. motion generated by earthquakes, wind, blast). Scotty`s Castle was one of the selected earthquake monitoring station. During the period from 1982 through 1993, numerous earthquakes with varied in magnitudes and distances were recorded at Scotty`s Castle. The records from 24 earthquakes were processed and included in this report. Tables 1 and 2 lists the processed earthquakes in chronological order and in the order of epicentral distances, respectively. Figure 1 shows these epicenters and magnitudes. Due to the potential benefit of these data for the scientific community, DOE/NV and the National Park Service authorize the release of these records.

  16. Rate-and-State Southern California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strader, A. E.; Jackson, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    In previous studies, we pseudo-prospectively evaluated time-dependent Coulomb stress earthquake forecasts, based on rate-and-state friction (Toda and Enescu, 2011 and Dieterich, 1996), against an ETAS null hypothesis (Zhuang et al., 2002). At the 95% confidence interval, we found that the stress-based forecast failed to outperform the ETAS forecast during the first eight weeks following the 10/16/1999 Hector Mine earthquake, in both earthquake number and spatial distribution. The rate-and-state forecast was most effective in forecasting far-field events (earthquakes occurring at least 50km away from modeled active faults). Near active faults, where most aftershocks occurred, stress singularities arising from modeled fault section boundaries obscured the Coulomb stress field. In addition to yielding physically unrealistic stress quantities, the stress singularities arising from the slip model often failed to indicate potential fault asperity locations inferred from aftershock distributions. Here, we test the effects of these stress singularities on the rate-and-state forecast's effectiveness, as well as mitigate stress uncertainties near active faults. We decrease the area significantly impacted by stress singularities by increasing the number of fault patches and introducing tapered slip at fault section boundaries, representing displacement as a high-resolution step function. Using recent seismicity distributions to relocate fault asperities, we also invert seismicity for a fault displacement model with higher resolution than the original slip distribution, where areas of positive static Coulomb stress change coincide with earthquake locations.

  17. Geodetic measurement of deformation in the Loma Prieta, California earthquake with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI)

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, T.A.; Ma, C.; Sauber, J.M.; Ryan, J.W. ); Gordon, D.; Caprette, D.S. ); Shaffer, D.B.; Vandenberg, N.R. )

    1990-07-01

    Following the Loma Prieta earthquake, two mobile Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) systems operated by the NASA Crustal Dynamics Project and the NOAA National Geodetic Survey were deployed at three previously established VLBI sites in the earthquake area: Fort Ord (near Monterey), the Presidio (in San Francisco) and Point Reyes. From repeated VLBI occupations of these sites since 1983, the pre-earthquake rates of deformation have been determined with respect to a North American reference frame with 1{sigma} formal standard errors of {approximately}1 mm/yr. The VLBI measurements immediately following the earthquake showed that the Fort Ord site was displaced 49 {plus minus} 4 mm at an azimuth of 11 {plus minus} 4{degree} and that the Presidio site was displaced 12 {plus minus} 5 mm at an azimuth of 148 {plus minus} 13{degree}. No anomalous change was detected at Point Reyes with 1{sigma} uncertainty of 4 mm. The estimated displacements at Fort Ord and the Presidio are consistent with the static displacements predicted on the basis of a coseismic slip model in which slip on the southern segment is shallower than slip on the more northern segment is shallower than slip on the more northern segment of the fault rupture. The authors also give the Cartesian positions at epoch 1990.0 of a set of VLBI fiducial stations and the three mobile sites in the vicinity of the earthquake.

  18. Acceleration and volumetric strain generated by the Parkfield 2004 earthquake on the GEOS strong-motion array near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, Rodger D.; Johnston, Malcolm J.S.; Dietel, Christopher; Glassmoyer, Gary; Myren, Doug; Stephens, Christopher

    2004-01-01

    An integrated array of 11 General Earthquake Observation System (GEOS) stations installed near Parkfield, CA provided on scale broad-band, wide-dynamic measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain of the Parkfield earthquake (M 6.0) of September 28, 2004. Three component measurements of acceleration were obtained at each of the stations. Measurements of collocated acceleration and volumetric strain were obtained at four of the stations. Measurements of velocity at most sites were on scale only for the initial P-wave arrival. When considered in the context of the extensive set of strong-motion recordings obtained on more than 40 analog stations by the California Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (Shakal, et al., 2004 http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc) and those on the dense array of Spudich, et al, (1988), these recordings provide an unprecedented document of the nature of the near source strong motion generated by a M 6.0 earthquake. The data set reported herein provides the most extensive set of near field broad band wide dynamic range measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain for an earthquake as large as M 6 of which the authors are aware. As a result considerable interest has been expressed in these data. This report is intended to describe the data and facilitate its use to resolve a number of scientific and engineering questions concerning earthquake rupture processes and resultant near field motions and strains. This report provides a description of the array, its scientific objectives and the strong-motion recordings obtained of the main shock. The report provides copies of the uncorrected and corrected data. Copies of the inferred velocities, displacements, and Psuedo velocity response spectra are provided. Digital versions of these recordings are accessible with information available through the internet at several locations: the National Strong-Motion Program web site (http://agram.wr.usgs.gov/), the COSMOS Virtual Data Center Web site (http://www.cosmos-eq.org), and the CISN Engineering and Berkeley data centers (http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc). They are also accessible together with recordings on the GEOS Strong-motion Array near Parkfield, CA since its installation in 1987 through the USGS GEOS web site ( http://nsmp.wr.usgs.gov/GEOS).

  19. Preseismic and coseismic deformation associated with the Coyote Lake, California, earthquake.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, N.E.; Savage, J.C.; Lisowski, M.; Prescott, W.H.

    1981-01-01

    The Coyote Lake earthquake (ML=5.9; August 6, 1979; epicenter c100 km SE of San Francisco) occurred on the Calaveras fault within a geodetic network that had been surveyed annually since 1972 to monitor strain accumulation. The rupture surface as defined by aftershocks is a vertical rectangle 20 km in length extending from a depth of 4 km to c12 km. The observed deformation of the geodetic network constrains the average slip to be 0.33 + or - 0.05m right lateral. Although the geodetic data furnished an exceptionally detailed picture of the pre-earthquake deformation, no significant premonitory anomaly associated with the Coyote Lake earthquake can be identified.-Authors

  20. Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquake horizons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scharer, K.M.; Weldon, R.J., II; Fumal, T.E.; Biasi, G.P.

    2007-01-01

    We present evidence of 11-14 earthquakes that occurred between 3000 and 1500 B.C. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. Earthquake evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called "event indicators." Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming earthquake and that the earthquake horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs>1). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as "probable" to "very likely" earthquakes; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as "possible" earthquakes. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an earthquake horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs>1 correlate best with the interpreted earthquake quality. Earthquake age distributions are determined from radio-carbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average recurrence interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality earthquakes is 111 (93-131) years and individual intervals are ??50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14-15 earthquake record between A.D. 500 and present, we find no evidence to suggest significant variations in the average recurrence rate at Wrightwood during the past 5000 years.

  1. The 1989 earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain, California: an initial look at the 4 May through 30 September activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.

    1990-01-01

    Mammoth Mountain is a 50 000- to 200 000-yr-old cumulovolcano standing on the southwestern rim of Long Valley in eastern California. On 4 May 1989, two M=1 earthquakes beneath the south flank of the mountain marked the onset of a swarm that has continued for more than 6 months. In addition to its longevity, noteworthy aspects of this persistent swarm are described. These aspects of the swarm, together with its location along the southern extension of the youthful Mono-Inyo volcanic chain, which last erupted 500 to 600 yr ago, point to a magmatic source for the modest but persistent influx of strain energy into the crust beneath Mammoth Mountain. -from Authors

  2. Source inversion of the 1988 Upland, California, earthquake: determination of a fault plane for a small event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mori, J.; Hartzell, S.

    1990-01-01

    We examined short-period P waves to investigate if waveform data could be used to determine which of two nodal planes was the actual fault plane for a small (ML 4,6) earthquake near Upland, California. The southwest trending fault plane consistently gave better fitting solutions than the southeast-trending plane. We determined a moment of 4.2 ?? 1022 dyne-cm. The rupture velocity, and thus the source area could not be well resolved, but if we assume a reasonable rupture velocity of 0.87 times the shear wave velocity, we obtain a source area of 0.97 km2 and a stress drop of 38 bars. -from Authors

  3. Geodetic measurement of deformation in the Loma Prieta, California earthquake with very long baseline interferometry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, T. A.; Ma, C.; Sauber, J. M.; Ryan, J. W.; Gordon, D.; Shaffer, D. B.; Carprette, D. S.; Vandenberg, N. R.

    1990-01-01

    VLBI measurements were conducted immediately after the Loma Prieta earthquake and compared with VLBI gathered at Monterey, San Francisco, and Point Reyes since 1983 to obtain preearthquake deformation rates with respect to a North American reference frame. The estimated displacements at Monterey and San Francisco are consistent with the static displacements predicted on the basis of a coseismic slip model in which slip on the southern segment is shallower than slip on the northern segment of the fault rupture. Cartesian positions are presented at epoch 1990.0 of a set of VLBI fiducial stations and the three mobile sites in the earthquake's vicinity.

  4. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 landers, california, earthquake

    PubMed

    Deng; Gurnis; Kanamori; Hauksson

    1998-11-27

    Space geodesy showed that broad-scale postseismic deformation occurred after the 1992 Landers earthquake. Three-dimensional modeling shows that afterslip can only explain one horizontal component of the postseismic deformation, whereas viscoelastic flow can explain the horizontal and near-vertical displacements. The viscosity of a weak, about 10-km-thick layer, in the lower crust beneath the rupture zone that controls the rebound is about 10(18) pascal seconds. The viscoelastic behavior of the lower crust may help to explain the extensional structures observed in the Basin and Range province and it may be used for the analysis of earthquake hazard. PMID:9831556

  5. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Strong Ground Motion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherdt, Roger D.

    1994-01-01

    Strong ground motion generated by the Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (MS~7.1) of October 17, 1989, resulted in at least 63 deaths, more than 3,757 injuries, and damage estimated to exceed $5.9 billion. Strong ground motion severely damaged critical lifelines (freeway overpasses, bridges, and pipelines), caused severe damage to poorly constructed buildings, and induced a significant number of ground failures associated with liquefaction and landsliding. It also caused a significant proportion of the damage and loss of life at distances as far as 100 km from the epicenter. Consequently, understanding the characteristics of the strong ground motion associated with the earthquake is fundamental to understanding the earthquake's devastating impact on society. The papers assembled in this chapter address this problem. Damage to vulnerable structures from the earthquake varied substantially with the distance from the causative fault and the type of underlying geologic deposits. Most of the damage and loss of life occurred in areas underlain by 'soft soil'. Quantifying these effects is important for understanding the tragic concentrations of damage in such areas as Santa Cruz and the Marina and Embarcadero Districts of San Francisco, and the failures of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and the Interstate Highway 880 overpass. Most importantly, understanding these effects is a necessary prerequisite for improving mitigation measures for larger earthquakes likely to occur much closer to densely urbanized areas in the San Francisco Bay region. The earthquake generated an especially important data set for understanding variations in the severity of strong ground motion. Instrumental strong-motion recordings were obtained at 131 sites located from about 6 to 175 km from the rupture zone. This set of recordings, the largest yet collected for an event of this size, was obtained from sites on various geologic deposits, including a unique set on 'soft soil' deposits (artificial fill and bay mud). These exceptional ground-motion data are used by the authors of the papers in this chapter to infer radiation characteristics of the earthquake source, identify dominant propagation characteristics of the Earth?s crust, quantify amplification characteristics of near-surface geologic deposits, develop general amplification factors for site-dependent building-code provisions, and revise earthquake-hazard assessments for the San Francisco Bay region. Interpretations of additional data recorded in well-instrumented buildings, dams, and freeway overpasses are provided in other chapters of this report.

  6. Chapter E. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Geologic Setting and Crustal Structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, Ray E.

    2004-01-01

    Although some scientists considered the Ms=7.1 Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake of 1989 to be an anticipated event, some aspects of the earthquake were surprising. It occurred 17 km beneath the Santa Cruz Mountains along a left-stepping restraining bend in the San Andreas fault system. Rupture on the southwest-dipping fault plane consisted of subequal amounts of right-lateral and reverse motion but did not reach the surface. In the area of maximum uplift, severe shaking and numerous ground cracks occurred along Summit Road and Skyland Ridge, several kilometers south of the main trace of the San Andreas fault. The relatively deep focus of the earthquake, the distribution of ground failure, the absence of throughgoing surface rupture on the San Andreas fault, and the large component of uplift raised several questions about the relation of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to the San Andreas fault: Did the earthquake actually occur on the San Andreas fault? Where exactly is the San Andreas fault in the heavily forested Santa Cruz Mountains, and how does the fault relate to ground ruptures that occurred there in 1989 and 1906? What is the geometry of the San Andreas fault system at depth, and how does it relate to the major crustal blocks identified by geologic mapping? Subsequent geophysical and geologic investigations of crustal structure in the Loma Prieta region have addressed these and other questions about the relation of the earthquake to geologic structures observed in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. The diverse papers in this chapter cover several topics: geologic mapping of the region, potential- field and electromagnetic modeling of crustal structure, and the velocity structure of the crust and mantle in and below the source region for the earthquake. Although these papers were mostly completed between 1992 and 1997, they provide critical documentation of the crustal structure of the Loma Prieta region. Together, they present a remarkably coherent, three-dimensional picture of the earthquake source region--a geologically complex volume of crust with a long history of both right-lateral faulting and fault-normal compression, thrusting, and uplift.

  7. Further evidence of localized geomagnetic field changes before the 1974 Thanksgiving Day Earthquake, Hollister, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Paul M.; Jackson, David D.; Johnston, Malcolm J. S.

    1980-07-01

    Seven weeks prior to the M=5.1 Hollister, Calif., Thanksgiving Day earthquake of 28 November, 1974, an anomalous magnetic variation was observed at one of the magnetometers of the USGS array. The anomaly lasted for about three weeks. Recently developed methods of reducing noise on magnetic records reveal that anomalous magnetic changes occurred at about the same time at three, of the six stations analysed. Such changes have not been seen either previously or subsequently. The largest variation occurred at the two stations closest to the earthquake, but a change also occurred at a station 44 km to the south.

  8. At which distance from previous earthquakes will the next one occur?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Álvaro

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes are not distributed uniformly in space. Instead, they tend to originate at, or close to, the locations of past earthquakes, reflecting the underlying geometry of the fault system which generates them. This presentation will describe a method for calculating which fraction of future earthquakes is expected to occur at given distances from past ones. Being very simple, the procedure is based on the empirical distribution of distances between past earthquakes. The results provide a detailed probabilistic answer to the talk's title and can be expressed in maps of spatial probabilities. The skill of these forecast maps is confirmed by four years of daily, real-time tests for California, the Western Pacific and global seismicity, performed at the Southern California Earthquake Center, within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (www.cseptesting.org). Such a method could be particularly useful for developing more realistic, physics-based, smoothed seismicity models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

  9. Continuous GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake (Mw 7.1)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hudnutt, K.W.; King, N.E.; Galetzka, J.E.; Stark, K.F.; Behr, J.A.; Aspiotes, A.; van, Wyk S.; Moffitt, R.; Dockter, S.; Wyatt, F.

    2002-01-01

    Rapid field deployment of a new type of continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) network and data from Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) stations that had recently begun operating in the area allow unique observations of the postseismic deformation associated with the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Innovative solutions in fieldcraft, devised for the 11 new GPS stations, provide high-quality observations with 1-year time histories on stable monuments at remote sites. We report on our results from processing the postseismic GPS data available from these sites, as well as 8 other SCIGN stations within 80 km of the event (a total of 19 sites). From these data, we analyze the temporal character and spatial pattern of the postseismic transients. Data from some sites display statistically significant time variation in their velocities. Although this is less certain, the spatial pattern of change in the postseismic velocity field also appears to have changed. The pattern now is similar to the pre-Landers (pre-1992) secular field, but laterally shifted and locally at twice the rate. We speculate that a 30 km ?? 50 km portion of crust (near Twentynine Palms), which was moving at nearly the North American plate rate (to within 3.5 mm/yr of that rate) prior to the 1992 Landers sequence, now is moving along with the crust to the west of it, as though it has been entrained in flow along with the Pacific Plate as a result of the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake sequence. The inboard axis of right-lateral shear deformation (at lower crustal to upper mantle depth) may have jumped 30 km farther into the continental crust at this fault junction that comprises the southern end of the eastern California shear zone.

  10. Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Y.; Wdowinski, S.; Fang, P.; Zhang, Jiahua; Williams, S.; Johnson, H.; Behr, J.; Genrich, J.; Dean, J.; Van Domselaar, M.; Agnew, D.; Wyatt, F.; Stark, K.; Oral, B.; Hudnut, K.; King, R.; Herring, T.; Dinardo, S.; Young, W.; Jackson, D.; Gurtner, W.

    1997-01-01

    The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in 1990 across the Pacific-North America plate boundary to continuously monitor crustal deformation. We describe the development of the array and the time series of daily positions estimated for its first 10 sites in the 19-month period between the June 28, 1992 (Mw=7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 (Mw=6.7), Northridge earthquakes. We compare displacement rates at four site locations with those reported by Feigl et al. [1993], which were derived from an independent set of Global Positioning System (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements collected over nearly a decade prior to the Landers earthquake. The velocity differences for three sites 65-100 km from the earthquake's epicenter are of order of 3-5 mm/yr and are systematically coupled with the corresponding directions of coseismic displacement. The fourth site, 300 km from the epicenter, shows no significant velocity difference. These observations suggest large-scale postseismic deformation with a relaxation time of at least 800 days. The statistical significance of our observations is complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the noise properties of the two data sets; two possible noise models fit the PGGA data equally well as described in the companion paper by Zhang et al. [this issue]; the pre-Landers data are too sparse and heterogeneous to derive a reliable noise model. Under a fractal white noise model for the PGGA data we find that the velocity differences for all three sites are statistically different at the 99% significance level. A white noise plus flicker noise model results in significance levels of only 94%, 43%, and 88%. Additional investigations of the pre-Landers data, and analysis of longer spans of PGGA data, could have an important effect on the significance of these results and will be addressed in future work. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Formation of left-lateral fractures within the Summit Ridge shear zone, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W. |

    1993-12-01

    The 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is characterized by the lack of major, throughgoing, coseismic, right-lateral faulting along strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the epicentral area. Instead, throughout the Summit Ridge area there are zones of tension cracks and left-lateral fracture zones oriented about N45 deg W, that is, roughly parallel to the San Andreas fault in this area. The left-lateral fractures zones are enigmatic because their left-lateral slip is opposite to the right-lateral sense of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. We suggest that the enigmatic fractures can be understood if we assume that coesiesmic deformation was by right-lateral shear across a broad zone, about 0.5 km wide and 4 km long, beneath Summit Ridge. Contrary to most previous reports on the Loma Prieta earthquake, which assert that coseismic, right-lateral ground rupture was restricted to considerable (greater than 4 km) depths in the epicentral area, we find that nearly all the right-lateral offset is represented at the ground surface by the Summit Ridge shear zone.

  12. Site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and damage in Los Gatos, California, from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Carver, D.; Williams, R.A.

    2001-01-01

    Aftershock records of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used to calculate site response in the frequency band of 0.5-10 Hz at 24 locations in Los Gatos, California, on the edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Two different methods are used: spectral ratios relative to a reference site on rock and a source/site spectral inversion method. These two methods complement each other and give consistent results. Site amplification factors are compared with surficial geology, thickness of alluvium, shallow shear-wave velocity measurements, and ground deformation and structural damage resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. Higher values of site amplification are seen on Quaternary alluvium compared with older Miocene and Cretaceous units of Monterey and Franciscan Formation. However, other more detailed correlations with surficial geology are not evident. A complex pattern of alluvial sediment thickness, caused by crosscutting thrust faults, is interpreted as contributing to the variability in site response and the presence of spectral resonance peaks between 2 and 7 Hz at some sites. Within the range of our field measurements, there is a correlation between lower average shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m and 50% higher values of site amplification. An area of residential homes thrown from their foundations correlates with high site response. This damage may also have been aggravated by local ground deformation. Severe damage to commercial buildings in the business district, however, is attributed to poor masonry construction.

  13. Long Return Periods for Earthquakes in San Gorgonio Pass and Implications for Large Ruptures of the San Andreas Fault in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yule, J.; McBurnett, P.; Ramzan, S.

    2011-12-01

    The largest discontinuity in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault occurs in southern California at San Gorgonio Pass. Here, San Andreas motion moves through a 20 km-wide compressive stepover on the dextral-oblique-slip thrust system known as the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. This thrust-dominated system is thought to rupture during very large San Andreas events that also involve strike-slip fault segments north and south of the Pass region. A wealth of paleoseismic data document that the San Andreas fault segments on either side of the Pass, in the San Bernardino/Mojave Desert and Coachella Valley regions, rupture on average every ~100 yrs and ~200 yrs, respectively. In contrast, we report here a notably longer return period for ruptures of the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. For example, features exposed in trenches at the Cabezon site reveal that the most recent earthquake occurred 600-700 yrs ago (this and other ages reported here are constrained by C-14 calibrated ages from charcoal). The rupture at Cabezon broke a 10 m-wide zone of east-west striking thrusts and produced a >2 m-high scarp. Slip during this event is estimated to be >4.5 m. Evidence for a penultimate event was not uncovered but presumably lies beneath ~1000 yr-old strata at the base of the trenches. In Millard Canyon, 5 km to the west of Cabezon, the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone splits into two splays. The northern splay is expressed by 2.5 ± 0.7 m and 5.0 ± 0.7 m scarps in alluvial terraces constrained to be ~1300 and ~2500 yrs old, respectively. The scarp on the younger, low terrace postdates terrace abandonment ~1300 yrs ago and probably correlates with the 600-700 yr-old event at Cabezon, though we cannot rule out that a different event produced the northern Millard scarp. Trenches excavated in the low terrace reveal growth folding and secondary faulting and clear evidence for a penultimate event ~1350-1450 yrs ago, during alluvial deposition prior to the abandonment of the low terrace. Subtle evidence for a third event is poorly constrained by age data to have occurred between 1600 and 2500 yrs ago. The southern splay at Millard Canyon forms a 1.5 ± 0.1 m scarp in an alluvial terrace that is inset into the lowest terrace at the northern Millard site, and therefore must be < ~1300 yrs old. Slip on this fault probably occurred during the most recent rupture in the Pass. In summary, we think that the most recent earthquake occurred 600-700 yrs ago and generated ~6 m of slip on the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone. The evidence for two older earthquakes is less complete but suggests that they are similar in style and magnitude to the most recent event. The available data therefore suggest that the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone has produced three large (~6 m) events in the last ~2000 yrs, a return period of ~700 yrs assuming that the next rupture is imminent. We prefer a model whereby a majority of San Andreas fault ruptures end as they approach the Pass region from the north or the south (like the Wrightwood event of A.D. 1812 and possibly the Coachella Valley event of ~A.D. 1680). Relatively rare (once-per-millennia?), through-going San Andreas events break the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone and produce the region's largest earthquakes.

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a mini?m of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional downtime. The direct exposure of port trade value totals over 1.2 billion, while associated business interruption losses in the California economy could more than triple that value. Other estimated damages include 1.8 billion of property damage and 85 million for highway and railroad repairs. In total, we have estimated repair and replacement costs of almost 3 billion to California marinas, coastal properties and the POLA/LB. These damages could cause $6 billion of business interruption losses in the California economy, but that could be reduced by 80-90% with the implementation of business continuity or resilience strategies. This scenario provides the basis for improving preparedness, mitigation, and continuity planning for tsunamis, which can reduce damage and economic impacts and enhance recovery efforts. Two positive outcomes have already resulted from the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Emergency managers in areas where the scenario inundation exceeds the State's maximum inundation zone have been notified and evacuation plans have been updated appropriately. The State has also worked with NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center to modify future message protocols to facilitate effective evacuations in California. While our specific results pertain to California, the lessons learned and our scenario approach can be applied to other regions.

  15. Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Public Response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolton, Patricia A., (Edited By)

    1993-01-01

    Major earthquakes provide seismologists and engineers an opportunity to examine the performance of the Earth and the man-made structures in response to the forces of the quake. So, too, do they provide social scientists an opportunity to delve into human responses evoked by the ground shaking and its physical consequences. The findings from such research can serve to guide the development and application of programs and practices designed to reduce death, injury, property losses, and social disruption in subsequent earthquakes. This chapter contains findings from studies focused mainly on public response to the Loma Prieta earthquake; that is, on the behavior and perceptions of the general population rather than on the activities of specific organizations or on the impact on procedures or policies. A major feature of several of these studies is that the information was collected from the population throughout the Bay area, not just from persons in the most badly damaged communities or who had suffered the greatest losses. This wide range serves to provide comparisons of behavior for those most directly affected by the earthquake with others who were less directly affected by it but still had to consider it very 'close to home.'

  16. Chapter E. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Hydrologic Disturbances

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rojstaczer, Stuart A., (Edited By)

    1994-01-01

    Seismic events have long been known to cause changes in the level of oceans, streams, lakes, and the water table. The great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 induced significant hydrologic changes that were qualitatively similar to those changes observed for the Loma Prieta earthquake. What is different is that the hydrologic data sets collected from the Loma Prieta event have enough detail to enable hypotheses on the causes for these changes to be tested. The papers in this chapter document changes in ocean level, stream morphology and flow, water table height, and ground-water flow rates in response to the earthquake. Although hydrologic disturbances may have occurred about 1 hour before the main shock, the papers in this chapter deal strictly with postevent hydrologic changes. The hydrologic responses reported here reflect changes that are not the result of surface rupture. They appear to be the result of landslides, the static displacements induced by the earthquake, and changes in the permeability of the near surface.

  17. Direct and indirect evidence for earthquakes; an example from the Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maloney, J. M.; Noble, P. J.; Driscoll, N. W.; Kent, G.; Schmauder, G. C.

    2012-12-01

    High-resolution seismic CHIRP data can image direct evidence of earthquakes (i.e., offset strata) beneath lakes and the ocean. Nevertheless, direct evidence often is not imaged due to conditions such as gas in the sediments, or steep basement topography. In these cases, indirect evidence for earthquakes (i.e., debris flows) may provide insight into the paleoseismic record. The four sub-basins of the tectonically active Lake Tahoe Basin provide an ideal opportunity to image direct evidence for earthquake deformation and compare it to indirect earthquake proxies. We present results from high-resolution seismic CHIRP surveys in Emerald Bay, Fallen Leaf Lake, and Cascade Lake to constrain the recurrence interval on the West Tahoe Dollar Point Fault (WTDPF), which was previously identified as potentially the most hazardous fault in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Recently collected CHIRP profiles beneath Fallen Leaf Lake image slide deposits that appear synchronous with slides in other sub-basins. The temporal correlation of slides between multiple basins suggests triggering by events on the WTDPF. If correct, we postulate a recurrence interval for the WTDPF of ~3-4 k.y., indicating that the WTDPF is near its seismic recurrence cycle. In addition, CHIRP data beneath Cascade Lake image strands of the WTDPF that offset the lakefloor as much as ~7 m. The Cascade Lake data combined with onshore LiDAR allowed us to map the geometry of the WTDPF continuously across the southern Lake Tahoe Basin and yielded an improved geohazard assessment.

  18. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  19. Three dimensional images of geothermal systems: local earthquake P-wave velocity tomography at the Hengill and Krafla geothermal areas, Iceland, and The Geysers, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Prisk, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Evans, J.R.

    1993-01-01

    Local earthquake tomography - the use of earthquake signals to form a 3-dimensional structural image - is now a mature geophysical analysis method, particularly suited to the study of geothermal reservoirs, which are often seismically active and severely laterally inhomogeneous. Studies have been conducted of the Hengill (Iceland), Krafla (Iceland) and The Geysers (California) geothermal areas. All three systems are exploited for electricity and/or heat production, and all are highly seismically active. Tomographic studies of volumes a few km in dimension were conducted for each area using the method of Thurber (1983).

  20. Multi-sensor Integration of Space and Ground Observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies Associated with M6.0, August 24, 2014 Napa, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Tramutoli, Valerio; Pulinets, Sergey; Liu, Tiger; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Petrov, Leonid; Kafatos, Menas

    2015-04-01

    We integrate multiple space-born and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 worldwide. The latest M6.0 event of August 24, 2014 in South Napa, California generated pre-earthquake signatures during our outgoing tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance. We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California (and several other test areas) by using: a) data from the NPOES sensors recording OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the infrared; b) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); c) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA; d) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data; e) TIR (Thermal Infrared) data from geostationary satellite (GOES). On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field at the TOA over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014 the hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. TIR retrospective analysis showed significant (spatially extended and temporally persistent) sequences of TIR anomalies starting August 1st just in the future epicenter area and approximately in the same area affected by OLR anomalies in the following days. GPS/TEC retrospective analysis based on GIM and TGIM products show anomalies TEC variations 1-3 days, over region north form the Napa earthquake epicenter. The calculated index of atmospheric chemical potential based on the NASA numerical Assimilation weather model GEOS5 indicates for abnormal variations near the epicentral area days before the quake; Our real-time and post-event integration of several atmospheric parameters from satellite and ground observations during the M6.0 on 08.24.2014 in Napa California demonstrated the synergy of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake preparation process.

  1. Triggered Fault Slip in Southern California Associated with the 2010 Sierra El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rymer, M. J.; Treiman, J. A.; Kendrick, K. J.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Wei, M.; Weldon, R. J.; Bilham, R. G.; Fielding, E. J.

    2010-12-01

    Surface fracturing (triggered slip) occurred in the central Salton Trough and to the southwest, in the Yuha Desert area—all in association with the 4 April 2010 (M7.2) El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and its aftershocks. Triggered slip in the central Salton Trough occurred on the ‘frequent movers’: the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, and Imperial Faults, all of which have slipped in previous moderate to large, local and regional earthquakes in the past five decades. Other faults in the central Salton Trough that also slipped in 2010 include the Wienert Fault (southeastern section of the Superstition Hills Fault), the Kalin Fault (in the Brawley Seismic Zone), and the Brawley Fault Zone; triggered slip had not been reported on these faults in the past. Geologic measures of slip on faults in the central Salton Trough ranged from 1 to 18 mm, and everywhere was located where previous primary (tectonic) or triggered slip has occurred. Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along at least two dozen faults, only some of which were known before the 4 April 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas; 1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), 2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, 3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), 4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, 5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name), 6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named), and 7) along the southeastern-most section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical slip. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults occurred only in association with the 14 June 2010 (M5.7) aftershock, which also initiated slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered slip on faults in the Yuha Desert area was most commonly less than 20 mm, but two significant exceptions are slip of about 50-60 mm on the Yuha Fault and of about 80 mm on the Ocotillo Fault. All triggered slips in the Yuha Desert area occurred along pre-existing faults, whether previously recognized or not.

  2. Rupture process of the 4 April 2010 Baja California Earthquake estimated from high-rate GPS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Y.; Hashimoto, M.

    2010-12-01

    The 4 April 2010 El Mayor Earthquake (Mw7.2) occurred in Baja California, Mexico. Its source region is located close to the plate boundary and there are several active faults in its vicinity. In association with this earthquake, surface rupture appears. Rupture is considered to propagate from southeast to northwest. Some high rate GPS’s are located close to the source fault. They are 56 stations with 5Hz sampling and 34 stations with 1Hz operated by UNAVCO. With these data, we did a precise point positioning analysis to detect temporal variations in displacement. The high-rate time series of coordinates of CGPS site are capable to deal with both dynamic and static displacements, but not suitable for the analysis with shorter period than its sampling period (usually 1sec). We used the GPS software GpsTools developed by Takasu and Kasai(2005). First, we estimated 1-Hz clock-biases of GPS satellites by using 1-Hz data of worldwide 70 stations from IGS. Next, with these estimated satellites clock, we did precise point positioning for GPS data during the earthquake. Comparing with average data for ten seconds before and after the earthquake, we recognized the maximum static displacement of 22cm at CRRS 99km from the epicenter which is near the Salton Sea. We suspect that this large displacement is attributed to its soil condition. We inverted displacement waveforms to compute a fault slip distribution with horizontal waveforms from several sites. We assumed a fault plate that is 100km long and 20km wide in the direction of N319W with a dip angle of 82 deg. We divide this fault plane into 80 subfaults with 5km*5km one. Green function was calculated with the Frequency-Wavenumber method (Zhu and Rivera, 2002) using the Hadley-Kanamori velocity model (Hadley and Kanamori, 1977). We calculated both dynamic and static displacement by this Green function with the duration and rise time of 6s and 1s, respectively. Rupture velocity was assumed to be 3.0km/s. The preliminary result shows that a normal fault component with a down warping of the eastern side is dominant in the southern part, while a right lateral with significant east down slip is prevailing in the northwestern part. Max fault slip is found to be 4m at northwest part. Acknowledgement: We’d like to thank UNAVCO for providing GPS data.

  3. Prevalence and Predictors of Somatic Symptoms among Child and Adolescents with Probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Cross-Sectional Study Conducted in 21 Primary and Secondary Schools after an Earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ye; Zhu, Shenyue; Du, Changhui

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To explore the prevalence rates and predictors of somatic symptoms among child and adolescent survivors with probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after an earthquake. Methods A total of 3053 students from 21 primary and secondary schools in Baoxing County were administered the Patient Health Questionnaire-13 (PHQ-13), a short version of PHQ-15 without the two items about sexuality and menstruation, the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES), and the self-made Earthquake-Related Experience Questionnaire 3 months after the Lushan earthquake. Results Among child and adolescent survivors, the prevalence rates of all somatic symptoms were higher in the probable PTSD group compared with the controls. The most frequent somatic symptoms were trouble sleeping (83.2%), feeling tired or having low energy (74.4%), stomach pain (63.2%), dizziness (58.1%), and headache (57.7%) in the probable PTSD group. Older age, having lost family members, having witnessed someone get seriously injured, and having witnessed someone get buried were predictors for somatic symptoms among child and adolescent survivors with probable PTSD. Conclusions Somatic symptoms among child and adolescent earthquake survivors with probable PTSD in schools were common, and predictors of these somatic symptoms were identified. These findings may help those providing psychological health programs to find the child and adolescent students with probable PTSD who are at high risk of somatic symptoms in schools after an earthquake in China. PMID:26327455

  4. Surface Displacement of the 17 May 1993 Eureka Valley, California, Earthquake Observed by SAR Interferometry.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, G; Rosen, P

    1995-06-01

    Satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry shows that the magnitude 6.1 Eureka Valley earthquake of 17 May 1993 produced an elongated subsidence basin oriented north-northwest, parallel to the trend defined by the aftershock distribution, whereas the source mechanism of the earthquake implies a north-northeast-striking normal fault. The +/-3-millimeter accuracy of the radar-observed displacement map over short spatial scales allowed identification of the main surface rupture associated with the event. These observations suggest that the rupture began at depth and propagated diagonally upward and southward on a west-dipping, north-northeast fault plane, reactivating the largest escarpment in the Saline Range. PMID:17778980

  5. Seismicity in the twenty years preceding the Loma Prieta, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Olson, J.A. )

    1990-08-01

    Persistent seismicity occurred at a low rate during at least the twenty years before the Loma Prieta earthquake along the 60 km-long rupture zone. The depth distribution of this seismicity forms a broad U-shape that delineates the previously locked rupture zone. Relocations of seismicity during the ten years before the earthquake relative to the Loma Prieta aftershocks show that this U-shaped distribution can be partitioned lengthwise into activity on two adjacent subparallel structures: a vertical fault beneath the San Andreas fault trace and an eastward-dipping blind fault beneath the Sargent fault trace. The 11-18 km deep, southwest-dipping part of the Loma Prieta rupture was not active during at least the preceding ten years. The slip geometry of intersecting fault structures in this zone could contribute to both the preparation process and the complexity of the rupture.

  6. Damage to urban infrastructure and other public property from the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) earthquake.

    PubMed

    French, S P

    1995-03-01

    This research project investigated the damage to public property caused by the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The claims filed by state and local governments, special districts and non-profit organizations under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) disaster assistance program were analyzed to understand better the pattern of damage caused by the earthquake. These claims accounted for nearly $600 million. The damage distribution was very skewed with eleven agencies claiming more than 70 per cent of this total. Non-profit agencies accounted for a surprisingly large portion of overall damage. Heavy damage was concentrated in relatively few areas. The extent of damage in an area was a function of concentration of property, site conditions, characteristics of building stock, and distance from the epicenter. PMID:7735857

  7. Triggered slip on the Calaveras fault during the magnitude 7. 1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    McClellan, P.H.; Hay, E.A.

    1990-07-01

    After the magnitude (M) 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake on the San Andreas fault the authors inspected selected sites along the Calaveras fault for evidence of recent surface displacement. In two areas along the Calaveras fault they documented recent right-lateral offsets of cultural features by at least 5 mm within zones of recognized historical creep. The areas are in the city of Hollister and at Highway 152 near San Felipe Lake, located approximately 25 km southeast and 18 km northeast, respectively, of the nearest part of the San Andreas rupture zone. On the basis of geologic evidence the times of the displacement events are constrained to within days or hours of the Loma Prieta mainshock. They conclude that this earthquake on the San Andreas fault triggered surface rupture along at least a 17-km-long segment of the Calaveras fault. These geologic observations extend evidence of triggered slip from instrument stations within this zone of Calaveras fault rupture.

  8. Non-shear focal mechanisms of earthquakes at The Geysers, California and Hengill, Iceland, geothermal areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Several thousand earthquakes were recorded in each area. We report an initial investigation of the focal mechanisms based on P-wave polarities. Distortion by complicated three-dimensional crustal structure was minimized using tomographically derived three-dimensional crustal models. Events with explosive and implosive source mechanisms, suggesting cavity opening and collapse, have been tentatively identified at The Geysers. The new data show that some of these events do not fit the model of tensile cracking accompanied by isotropic pore pressure decreases that was suggested in earlier studies, but that they may instead involve combination of explosive and shear processes. However, the confirmation of earthquakes dominated by explosive components supports the model that the event are caused by crack opening induced by thermal contraction of the heat source.

  9. The 1987 whittier narrows earthquake in the los angeles metropolitan area, california.

    PubMed

    Hauksson, E; Jones, L M; Davis, T L; Hutton, L K; Williams, P; Bent, A L; Brady, A G; Reasenberg, P A; Michael, A J; Yerkes, R F; Etheredge, E; Porcella, R L; Johnston, M J; Reagor, G; Stover, C W; Bufe, C G; Cranswick, E; Shakal, A K

    1988-03-18

    The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, M(L) = 5.9), which caused over $358-million damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter. PMID:17769737

  10. Postseismic relaxation following the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    We have reexamined the postearthquake deformation of a 65 km long linear array of 11 geodetic monuments extending north–south across the rupture (reverse slip on a blind thrust dipping 40°S–20°W) associated with the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake. That array was surveyed frequently in the interval from 4 to 2650 days after the earthquake. The velocity of each of the monuments over the interval 100–2650 days postearthquake appears to be constant. Moreover, the profile of those velocities along the length of the array is very similar to a preearthquake velocity profile for a nearby, similarly oriented array. We take this to indicate that significant postseismic relaxation is evident only in the first 100 days postseismic and that the subsequent linear trend is typical of the interseismic interval. The postseismic relaxation (postseismic displacement less displacement that would have occurred at the preseismic velocity) is found to be almost wholly parallel (N70°W) to the nearby (40 km) San Andreas Fault with only negligible relaxation in the direction of coseismic slip (N20°E) on the Northridge rupture. We suggest that the N70°W relaxation is caused by aseismic, right-lateral slip at depth on the San Andreas Fault, excess slip presumably triggered by the Northridge rupture. Finally, using the Dieterich (1994) stress-seismicity relation, we show that return to the preseismic deformation rate within 100 days following the earthquake could be consistent with the cumulative number of M > 2.5 earthquakes observed following the main shock.

  11. Earthquake recurrence on the Calaveras fault east of San Jose, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bufe, C.G.; Harsh, P.W.; Burford, R.O.

    1979-01-01

    Occurrence of small (3 ??? ML < 4) earthquakes on two 10-km segments of the Calaveras fault between Calaveras and Anderson reservoirs follows a simple linear pattern of elastic strain accumulation and release. The centers of these independent patches of earthquake activity are 20 km apart. Each region is characterized by a constant rate of seismic slip as computed from earthquake magnitudes, and is assumed to be an isolated locked patch on a creeping fault surface. By calculating seismic slip rates and the amount of seismic slip since the time of the last significant (M ??? 3) earthquake, it is possible to estimate the most likely date of the next (M ???- 3) event on each patch. The larger the last significant event, the longer the time until the next one. The recurrence time also appears to be increased according to the moment of smaller (2 < ML < 3) events in the interim. The anticipated times of future larger events on each patch, on the basis of preliminary location data through May 1977 and estimates of interim activity, are tabulated below with standard errors. The occurrence time for the southern zone is based on eight recurrent events since 1969, the northern zone on only three. The 95% confidence limits can be estimated as twice the standard error of the projected least-squares line. Events of M ??? 3 should not occur in the specified zones at times outside these limits. The central region between the two zones was the locus of two events (M = 3.6, 3.3) on July 3, 1977. These events occurred prior to a window based on the three point, post-1969 slip-time line for the central region. {A table is presented}. ?? 1979.

  12. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Recovery, Mitigation, and Reconstruction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nigg, Joanne M., (Edited By)

    1998-01-01

    The papers in this chapter reflect the broad spectrum of issues that arise following a major damaging urban earthquake-the regional economic consequences, rehousing problems, reconstruction strategies and policies, and opportunities for mitigation before the next major seismic event. While some of these papers deal with structural or physical science topics, their significant social and policy implications make them relevant for improving our understanding of the processes and dynamics that take place during the recovery period.

  13. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Loss Estimation and Procedures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tubbesing, Susan K., (Edited By)

    1994-01-01

    This Professional Paper includes a collection of papers on subjects ranging from evaluation of building safety, to human injuries, to correlation of ground deformation with building damage. What these papers share is a common goal to improve the tools available to the research community to measure the nature, extent, and causes of damage and losses due to earthquakes. These measurement tools are critical to reducing future loss.

  14. Migrating swarms of brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, D.R.; Hill, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Brittle-failure earthquakes in the lower crust, where high pressures and temperatures would typically promote ductile deformation, are relatively rare but occasionally observed beneath active volcanic centers. Where they occur, these earthquakes provide a rare opportunity to observe volcanic processes in the lower crust, such as fluid injection and migration, which may induce brittle faulting under these conditions. Here, we examine recent short-duration earthquake swarms deep beneath the southwestern margin of Long Valley Caldera, near Mammoth Mountain. We focus in particular on a swarm that occurred September 29-30, 2009. To maximally illuminate the spatial-temporal progression, we supplement catalog events by detecting additional small events with similar waveforms in the continuous data, achieving up to a 10-fold increase in the number of locatable events. We then relocate all events, using cross-correlation and a double-difference algorithm. We find that the 2009 swarm exhibits systematically decelerating upward migration, with hypocenters shallowing from 21 to 19 km depth over approximately 12 hours. This relatively high migration rate, combined with a modest maximum magnitude of 1.4 in this swarm, suggests the trigger might be ascending CO2 released from underlying magma.

  15. Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Field, E.H.; Seligson, H.A.; Gupta, N.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Campbell, K.W.

    2005-01-01

    Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Main Shock Characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, Paul, (Edited By)

    1996-01-01

    The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (0004:15.2 G.m.t. October 18; lat 37.036? N., long 121.883? W.; 19-km depth) had a local magnitude (ML) of about 6.7, a surface-wave magnitude (MS) of 7.1, a seismic moment of 2.2x1019 N-m to 3.5x1019 N-m, a source duration of 6 to 15 s, and an average stress drop of at least 50 bars. Slip occurred on a dipping fault surface about 35 km long and was largely confined to a depth of about 7 to 20 km. The slip vector had a large vertical component, and slip was distributed in two main regions situated northwest and southeast of the hypocenter. This slip distribution caused about half of the earthquake's energy to be focused toward the urbanized San Francisco Bay region, while the other half was focused toward the southeast. Had the rupture initiated at the southeast end of the aftershock zone, shaking in the bay region would have been both longer and stronger. These source parameters suggest that the earthquake was not a typical shallow San Andreas-type event but a deeper event on a different fault with a recurrence interval of many hundreds of years. Therefore, the potential for a damaging shallow event on the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains may still exist.

  17. A century of oilfield operations and earthquakes in the greater Los Angeles Basin, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauksson, Egill; Goebel, Thomas; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    Most of the seismicity in the Los Angeles Basin (LA Basin) occurs at depth below the sediments and is caused by transpressional tectonics related to the big bend in the San Andreas fault. However, some of the seismicity could be associated with fluid extraction or injection in oil fields that have been in production for almost a century and cover ? 17% of the basin. In a recent study, first the influence of industry operations was evaluated by analyzing seismicity characteristics, including normalized seismicity rates, focal depths, and b-values, but no significant difference was found in seismicity characteristics inside and outside the oil fields. In addition, to identify possible temporal correlations, the seismicity and available monthly fluid extraction and injection volumes since 1977 were analyzed. Second, the production and deformation history of the Wilmington oil field were used to evaluate whether other oil fields are likely to experience similar surface deformation in the future. Third, the maximum earthquake magnitudes of events within the perimeters of the oil fields were analyzed to see whether they correlate with total net injected volumes, as suggested by previous studies. Similarly, maximum magnitudes were examined to see whether they exhibit an increase with net extraction volume. Overall, no obvious previously unidentified induced earthquakes were found, and the management of balanced production and injection of fluids appears to reduce the risk of induced-earthquake activity in the oil fields.

  18. Faulting apparently related to the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and possible co-seismic origin of surface cracks in Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catchings, R.D.; Goldman, M.R.; Lee, W.H.K.; Rymer, M.J.; Ponti, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    Apparent southward-dipping, reverse-fault zones are imaged to depths of about 1.5 km beneath Potrero Canyon, Los Angeles County, California. Based on their orientation and projection to the surface, we suggest that the imaged fault zones are extensions of the Oak Ridge fault. Geologic mapping by others and correlations with seismicity studies suggest that the Oak Ridge fault is the causative fault of the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake (Northridge fault). Our seismically imaged faults may be among several faults that collectively comprise the Northridge thrust fault system. Unusually strong shaking in Potrero Canyon during the Northridge earthquake may have resulted from focusing of seismic energy or co-seismic movement along existing, related shallow-depth faults. The strong shaking produced ground-surface cracks and sand blows distributed along the length of the canyon. Seismic reflection and refraction images show that shallow-depth faults may underlie some of the observed surface cracks. The relationship between observed surface cracks and imaged faults indicates that some of the surface cracks may have developed from nontectonic alluvial movement, but others may be fault related. Immediately beneath the surface cracks, P-wave velocities are unusually low (<400 m/sec), and there are velocity anomalies consistent with a seismic reflection image of shallow faulting to depths of at least 100 m. On the basis of velocity data, we suggest that unconsolidated soils (<800 m/sec) extend to depths of about 15 to 20 m beneath our datum (<25 m below ground surface). The underlying rocks range in velocity from about 1000 to 5000 m/sec in the upper 100 m. This study illustrates the utility of high-resolution seismic imaging in assessing local and regional seismic hazards.

  19. Differentiating Tectonic and Anthropogenic Earthquakes in the Greater Los Angeles Basin, Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, E.; Goebel, T.; Cochran, E. S.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 flurry of moderate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region raised the concern if some of this or past seismicity was of anthropogenic origin as opposed to being caused by ongoing transpressional tectonics. The Mw5.1 La Habra sequence is located near several major oil fields but the Mw4.4 Encino sequence was located away from oil fields, within the Santa Monica Mountains. The last century of seismicity in the Los Angeles area consists of numerous small and large earthquakes. Most of these earthquakes occur beneath the basin sediments and are associated with transpressional tectonics, related to the big bend in the San Andreas fault, but some could be associated with large oil fields. In particular, both the 1933 Mw6.4 Long Beach and the 1987 Mw5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquakes were spatially associated with two major oil fields, the Huntington Beach and Montebello fields. Numerous large oil fields have been in production for more than 125 years. The geographical locations of the oil fields follow major tectonic trends such as the Newport-Inglewood fault, the Whittier fault, and the thrust belt located at the north edge of the Los Angeles basin. More than 60 fields have oil wells and some of these have both disposal and fracking wells. Before fluid injection became common, Kovach (1974) documented six damaging events induced by fluid extraction from 1947 to 1961 in the Wilmington oil field. Since 1981 the waveform-relocated earthquake catalog for the Los Angeles basin is complete on the average above M2.0. We compare the spatial distribution of these events and the proximity of nearby active oil fields. We will also analyze the seismicity in the context of available monthly fluid extraction and injection volumes and search for temporal correlations. The La Habra sequence apparently correlates with temporal changes in extraction and injection volumes in the Santa Fe Springs oil field but not with activities in other oil fields within closer spatial proximity.

  20. Processed seismic motion records from Desert Hot Springs, California earthquake of April 22, 1992, recorded at seismic stations in southern Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-04-01

    The 8mm data tape contains the processed seismic data of the Desert Hot Springs, California earthquake of April 22nd, 1992. The seismic data were recorded by 19 seismographs maintained by the DOE/NV in Southern Nevada. Four files were generated from each seismic recorder. They are ``Uncorrected acceleration time histories, 2. corrected acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories, 3. pseudo response velocity spectra and 4. Fourier amplitude spectra of acceleration.

  1. Survey of strong motion earthquake effects on thermal power plants in California with emphasis on piping systems. Volume 1, Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-11-01

    Since 1982, there has been a major effort expended to evaluate the susceptibility of nuclear Power plant equipment to failure and significant damage during seismic events. This was done by making use of data on the performance of electrical and mechanical equipment in conventional power plants and other similar industrial facilities during strong motion earthquakes. This report is intended as an extension of the seismic experience data collection effort and a compilation of experience data specific to power plant piping and supports designed and constructed US power piping code requirements which have experienced strong motion earthquakes. Eight damaging (Richter Magnitude 7.7 to 5.5) California earthquakes and their effects on 8 power generating facilities in use natural gas and California were reviewed. All of these facilities were visited and evaluated. Seven fossel-fueled (dual use natural gas and oil) and one nuclear fueled plants consisting of a total of 36 individual boiler or reactor units were investigated. Peak horizontal ground accelerations that either had been recorded on site at these facilities or were considered applicable to these power plants on the basis of nearby recordings ranged between 0.20g and 0.5lg with strong motion durations which varied from 3.5 to 15 seconds. Most US nuclear power plants are designed for a safe shutdown earthquake peak ground acceleration equal to 0.20g or less with strong motion durations which vary from 10 to 15 seconds.

  2. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

  3. Situated Preparedness: The Negotiation of a Future Catastrophic Earthquake in a California University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Natalie Danielle

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation examines disaster preparedness as engaged at a large university in southern California using inductive research and grounded theory data collection and analysis methods. The thesis consists of three parts, all addressing the problem of disaster preparedness as enacted in this at-risk context. I use in-depth interviews, archival…

  4. Earthquake stress drops and inferred fault strength on the Hayward Fault, east San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardebeck, J.L.; Aron, A.

    2009-01-01

    We study variations in earthquake stress drop with respect to depth, faulting regime, creeping versus locked fault behavior, and wall-rock geology. We use the P-wave displacement spectra from borehole seismic recordings of M 1.0-4.2 earthquakes in the east San Francisco Bay to estimate stress drop using a stack-and-invert empirical Green's function method. The median stress drop is 8.7 MPa, and most stress drops are in the range between 0.4 and 130 MPa. An apparent correlation between stress drop and magnitude is entirely an artifact of the limited frequency band of 4-55 Hz. There is a trend of increasing stress drop with depth, with a median stress drop of ~5 MPa for 1-7 km depth, ~10 MPa for 7-13 km depth, and ~50 MPa deeper than 13 km. We use S=P amplitude ratios measured from the borehole records to better constrain the first-motion focal mechanisms. High stress drops are observed for a deep cluster of thrust-faulting earthquakes. The correlation of stress drops with depth and faulting regime implies that stress drop is related to the applied shear stress. We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress drops are concentrated around the major locked patch near Oakland. This also suggests a connection between stress drop and applied shear stress, as the locked patch may experience higher applied shear stress as a result of the difference in cumulative slip or the presence of higher-strength material. The stress drops do not directly correlate with the strength of the proposed wall-rock geology at depth, suggesting that the relationship between fault strength and the strength of the wall rock is complex.

  5. Near-fault measurement of postseismic slip associated with the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Rymer, M.J. )

    1990-09-01

    Five small-aperture (0.5 to 7.7 m) quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault and newly formed extensional cracks shortly after the October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta M7.1 earthquake. Two quadrilaterals were installed across the San Andreas fault near the southeast and northwest ends of the 1989 rupture, and three were installed across dominantly extensional cracks in the Summit Road area near the main-shock epicenter and off the San Andreas fault. Measurements of line-length changes from as early as 4 d up to 184 d after the earthquake in the nail quadrilaterals indicate a small amount of right-lateral postseismic slip on the San Andreas fault. The site near the southeast end of the 1989 aftershock zone on the San Andreas fault showed about 5{plus minus}2 mm of postseismic right-lateral component of slip in addition to 23 mm of right-lateral coseismic movement. The site near the northwest end of aftershocks likewise showed about 5{plus minus}2 mm of postseismic slip, but after only 5 mm of coseismic slip. Measurements at sites across extensional cracks indicate possible minor left-lateral postseismic slips, and possible extensional/contractional motion. No measurements were made of possible vertical movements. Sites on extensional cracks showed similarly small amounts of possible postseismic lateral slip, from {approximately}2 to 10 mm, even though coseismic lateral slips were much greater (up to 410 mm) than on the surface trace of the San Andreas fault. The small slip values, in spite of uncertainties, clearly show that the lack of coseismic surface slip associated with the earthquake was not followed by large postseismic slip.

  6. Earthquakes, Segments, Bends, and Fault-Face Geology: Correlations Within the San Andreas System, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jachens, R. C.; Simpson, R. W.; Thurber, C. H.; Murray, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Three-dimensional geologic maps of regions surrounding parts of the San Andreas Fault system reveal correlations between fault face geology and both short- and long-term behavior of the faults. The Loma Prieta fault segment that ruptured during the 1989 M6.9 earthquake, as defined by its aftershocks, closely corresponds to the subsurface reach (80 km long) where a large body of Logan gabbro is truncated at the fault, as defined by its magnetic anomaly. This Jurassic ophiolitic gabbro and its related rocks occupy an unusual fault-bounded basement block within Salinaa, a largely Cretaceous granitic terrane SW of the San Andreas Fault. The along-fault reach of the Logan gabbro also coincides with essentially the entire Santa Cruz Mountains left-bend in the San Andreas Fault. Rejecting a chance coincidence, the position of the Logan gabbro with respect to the left bend implies that the bend is fixed relative to Salinia and that the block NE of the San Andreas Fault has been forced to negotiate around the bend as the blocks moved past each other. Thus the basement rocks of the Logan block appear to define (control?) the Loma Prieta segment in terms both of short-term behavior (earthquakes) and long-term behavior (restraining bend fault geometry). The Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault also closely corresponds to a characteristic geologic unit in the NE face of the fault, the greenstone-rich Permanente terrane of the Franciscan Complex. The along-fault subsurface extent of the Permanente terrane at the fault face, as inferred from a recent 3D tomographic wavespeed model, corresponds to the reach filled by the aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Furthermore, the 2004 co-seismic slip inferred from geodetic observations also coincides with the Permanente terrane at the fault face. To test whether these observations are directly related to the presence of the Permanente terrane along the fault face, we looked at fault behavior at the location of its offset counterpart, which truncates at the Calaveras Fault near Hollister 175 km to the NW. Here, the along-fault subsurface extent of the Permanente terrane, as defined by its gravity and magnetic anomalies, corresponds to the aftershock distribution of the 1979 Coyote Lake earthquake, giving support to the idea that fault-face geology can influence fault behavior and control fault segmentation.

  7. Triggered surface slips in southern California associated with the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, Michael J.; Treiman, Jerome A.; Kendrick, Katherine J.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bilham, Roger; Wei, Meng; Fielding, Eric J.; Hernandez, Janis L.; Olson, Brian P.E.; Irvine, Pamela J.; Knepprath, Nichole; Sickler, Robert R.; Tong, Xiaopeng; Siem, Martin E.

    2011-01-01

    Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along more than two dozen faults, only some of which were recognized before the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas: (1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), (2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, (3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), (4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, (5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name) and related faults between it and the Yuha Fault, (6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named) and related faults to the north and south, and (7) along the southeasternmost section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical offset. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults appears to have occurred only in association with the June 14, 2010 (Mw5.7), aftershock. This aftershock also resulted in slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered offset on faults in the Yuha Desert area was mostly less than 20 mm, with three significant exceptions, including slip of about 50–60 mm on the Yuha Fault, 40 mm on a fault south of Pinto Wash, and about 85 mm on the Ocotillo Fault. All triggered slips in the Yuha Desert area occurred along preexisting faults, whether previously recognized or not.

  8. Average Stress Drops of Southern California Earthquakes in the Context of Crustal Geophysics: Implications for Fault Zone Healing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauksson, Egill

    2015-05-01

    To understand how fault healing processes affect earthquake stress drops, we search for a possible dependency of stress drops on crustal conditions and geophysical parameters. We reanalyze the stress drop values of ~60,000 earthquakes in southern California which were originally determined by Shearer et al. J Geophys Res 111:B06303, (2006) using a spectral method. We modify the dataset to include only stress drops that are derived from at least 10 spectra and with corner frequencies between 3 and 30 Hz, and correct the rupture velocity for increasing S-wave speed with depth. We see no dependence of stress drop on moment magnitude or depth, except for a small, poorly determined increase from 15 to 25 km. We use six crustal geophysics parameters to search for obvious correlations that may explain changes in the mean values of the stress drops: (1) crustal thickness, (2) isostatic gravity, (3) heat flow, (4) shear strain rate, (5) crustal stress regime, and (6) style of faulting. None of the variables reduce the scatter but most can explain up to 10-20 % variations in the mean stress drops. The geographical distribution of the grouped mean stress drops includes very high stress drops near Ridgecrest, eastern California, as well as near fault jogs within the San Andreas Fault system. Low stress drops dominate in trans-tensional regions. Heat flow and GPS-based shear strain rate estimates have the largest influence on stress drop variations. In the range of low to medium heat flow, the stress drops increase with increasing heat flow. In contrast, at high heat flow in thin crust, the stress drops decrease systematically with increasing heat flow. Increasing shear strain rate systematically correlates with decreasing stress drops. The crustal stress regime and style of faulting also influence the stress drops as demonstrated by lower stress drops for north-northeast trending principal horizontal stress and in areas of dip-slip faulting. The mean variations in stress drops with heat flow, stress regime, crustal thickness, and density can be explained in the context of fault healing (grain boundary growth) and corresponding increase in fault zone strength on time scales modulated by the tectonic shear strain rate.

  9. The 130-km-long Green Valley Fault Zone of Northern California: Discontinuities Regulate Its Earthquake Recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Green Valley fault (GVF), a branch of the dextral strike-slip San Andreas fault system, connects the Northern Calaveras fault (NCF) to the Bartlett Springs fault (BSF) to the north. Although, the GVF may occasionally rupture along its entire length to produce M7 earthquakes, 2-3 km discontinuities in its trace appear to modulate the length and frequency of ruptures. The global historical earthquake record suggests that ruptures tend to stop at such fault discontinuities (1-4 km steps) about half the time (Wesnousky and Biasi, 2011). The GVF has three sections: the 77-km-long southern GVF (SGVF), the 25-km Berryessa (BF), and the 30-km Hunting Creek (HCF). The SGVF itself could produce large (M6.7) events, and the BF and HCF somewhat smaller events (M6.3-6.6). The BF is centered on a compressional pop-up structure. It is separated to the north from the HCF by a ~2.5-3 km extensional stepover and to the south from the SGVF by a ~2.5-3 km extensional bend. At its south end, the GVF is separated from the NCF by the 5-km Alamo stepover, which is likely to stop all ruptures; and at its north end the GVF (HCF section) makes a 2.5 km right step to the BSF at Wilson Valley. The HCF apparently forms a significant transition between the BSF and the GVF. The overall trend of the GVF bends ~17° through the HCF and emerges on the BSF trend. Thus, this bend, along with the Wilson Valley step-over, would tend to inhibit ruptures between BSF and sections of the GVF. Creep rates along most of the GVF (SGVF, HCF) range from 1 to 4 mm/yr. No creep is known for the BF section, but its microseismicity levels are similar to creeping parts of the GVF and BSF, so we assume that the BF may creep too. We estimate slip rate on the GVF is 6±2 mm/yr by interpolating rates on the BSF and the NCF. Lienkaemper and Brown (2009) estimated ~6.5 mm/yr for the average deep loading rate on the BSF using a rigid block model of the USGS-GPS site velocities observed in the central BSF. This rate is comparable to the 6 mm/yr Holocene slip rate observed on the NCF (Kelson et al., 1996). Microearthquakes on the GVF reach a depth of ~14 km. Using methods of Savage and Lisowski (1993) for the GVF suggests that creep may on average extend to depths of ~7.5 km, leaving a width of ~6.5 km of locked fault zone below. Trenching on the SGVF indicates 400 (±50) years have elapsed since the most recent large earthquake (MRE) in 1610±50 yr CE. Previous earthquake recurrence intervals (RI) in the past millennium indicate a mean RI of 200±80 yr (?±?) for the SGVF, which is much shorter than the 400-yr open interval. Preliminary evidence from trenching on the BF gives a MRE of 1630±100 yr CE, which may thus coincide with of the MRE on the SGVF. If the MRE on the BF and SGVF sections is the same earthquake, then its expected larger size (M~6.9-7.0 vs 6.7) and greater fault complexity may have produced a large stress drop, which would possibly help explain the current long open interval. The SGVF paleoseismic recurrence model is consistent with a simple probabilistic rupture model (i.e., 50%-probable rupture across 1-4 km steps) and with a Brownian Passage Time recurrence model with a mean RI of 250 yr, CV (coefficient of variation, ?/?) of 0.6, and a 30-yr rupture probability of 20-25%.

  10. Post-earthquake relaxation evidence for laterally variable viscoelastic structure and elevated water concentration in the southwestern California mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollitz, F. F.

    2014-12-01

    I re-examine the lower crust and mantle relaxation following two large events in the Mojave Desert: the 1992 M7.3 Landers and 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquakes. More than a decade of GPS time series from regional sites out to 250 km from the ruptures are used to constrain models of postseismic relaxation. Crustal motions in the Mojave Desert region are elevated for several years following each event, with perturbations from a pre-Landers background of order mm to cm per year. I consider afterslip and relaxation of the ductile lower crust and mantle to explain these motions. To account for broad scale relaxation, the Burgers body model is employed, involving Kelvin (transient) viscosity and rigidity and Maxwell (steady state) viscosity and rigidity. I use the code VISCO2.5D to perform 2.5D modeling of the postseismic relaxation (3D quasi-static motions computed on 2D, laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic structures; Pollitz, 2014 GJI). Joint afterslip / postseismic relaxation modeling of continuous GPS time series up to 10.46 years following the Hector Mine earthquake (i.e. up to the time of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake) reveals that a northwest-trending `southwest domain' that envelopes the San Andreas fault system and western Mojave Desert has ~4 times larger Maxwell mantle viscosity than the adjacent `northeast domain' that extends inland and envelopes the Landers and Hector Mine rupture areas in the central Mojave Desert. This pattern is counter to that expected from regional heat flow, which is higher in the northeast domain, but it is explicable by means of a non-linear rheology that includes dependence on both strain rate and water concentration. I infer that the southwest domain mantle has a relatively low steady-state viscosity because of its high strain rate and water content. The relatively low mantle water content of the northeast domain is interpreted to result from the continual extraction of water through igneous and volcanic activity over the past ~20 Myr. The inference of Maxwellian viscosities is possible because the material relaxation times involved (5 years and 20 years for the SW and NE domains, respectively) are to a large extent spanned by the decade of available post-Hector Mine observations.

  11. The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake in the Context of the Earthquake Cycle in the San Francisco Bay Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaume, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake is the second M ? 5.5 earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay region since the 1989 M 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake. This poster will examine how this earthquake fits into the earthquake history of the Bay region, which has shown considerable variation in the rate of moderate (M 5.5-6.5) earthquakes. A number of models have been developed to explain these changes in moderate earthquake rates, including the Accelerating Moment Release model (e.g., Sykes and Jaumé, Nature, 1990; Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 1993) and the Stress Shadow model (e.g., Harris and Simpson, J. Geophys. Res., 1998). In addition, various groups have made projections of future earthquake activity in the San Francisco Bay region, including the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., USGS OFR, 2008) and Bebbington et al. (PAGEOPH, 2010), utilizing different physical models for earthquake occurrence. In my poster I will compare and contrast these different views of seismicity in the Bay region and where the 2014 South Napa earthquake fits into them. In particular, I will explore what these different models imply for future moderate earthquake occurrence and hazards thereof.

  12. Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

    SciTech Connect

    Hartzell, S. ); Iida, M. )

    1990-08-10

    Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong notion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30{degree} and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 {times} 10{sup 24} dyn cm, depending on the rupture model.

  13. Variability in nonlinear sediment response during the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.

    1998-01-01

    Spectral ratios between sediment sites and rock sites for strong and weak ground motion are compared to infer the extent of nonlinear sediment response in the Los Angeles area during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Northridge mainshock records form the strong-motion database and aftershock records form the weak-motion database. The degree of nonlinearity is evaluated at 25 locations in and around the San Fernando and Los angeles Basins based on the ratio of weak-to-strong spectral amplification factors (WSAF). Values of WSAF vary greatly from site to site and, for a given site, from one frequency band to another over the range from 0.75 to 20 Hz. This complexity is attributed to differences in several factors: materials properties under the sites and the amplitude and frequency content of the input ground motions. Given these observations, it is not possible to assign an acceleration or velocity level at which nonlinearity initiates for all the stiff soil sites analyzed. However, no nonlinearity is seen below a peak acceleration of about 200 to 300 cm/sec2 or peak velocity of 20 to 30 cm/sec. Nonlinearity is seen at all sites in or near the San Fernando Valley. Nonlinearity in the Los Angeles Basin is limited to a few isolated sites. For the Northridge earthquake, even sites with strong nonlinearity still show amplification levels greater than 1.0 relative to rock sites for frequencies below 10 Hz.

  14. Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Iida, M.

    1990-01-01

    Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong motion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30?? and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 ?? 1024 dyn cm, depending on the rupture model. -Authors

  15. History of earthquakes and tsunamis along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, with implications for tsunami hazards in the California Continental Borderland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland; Wells, Ray E.; Scholl, David W.; Kirby, Stephen; Draut, Amy E.

    2012-01-01

    During the past several years, devastating tsunamis were generated along subduction zones in Indonesia, Chile, and most recently Japan. Both the Chile and Japan tsunamis traveled across the Pacific Ocean and caused localized damage at several coastal areas in California. The question remains as to whether coastal California, in particular the California Continental Borderland, is vulnerable to more extensive damage from a far-field tsunami sourced along a Pacific subduction zone. Assuming that the coast of California is at risk from a far-field tsunami, its coastline is most exposed to a trans-Pacific tsunami generated along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone. We present the background geologic constraints that could control a possible giant (Mw ~9) earthquake sourced along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. Previous great earthquakes (Mw ~8) in 1788, 1938, and 1946 ruptured single segments of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. However, in order to generate a giant earthquake, it is necessary to rupture through multiple segments of the megathrust. Potential barriers to a throughgoing rupture, such as high-relief fracture zones or ridges, are absent on the subducting Pacific Plate between the Fox and Semidi Islands. Possible asperities (areas on the megathrust that are locked and therefore subject to infrequent but large slip) are identified by patches of high moment release observed in the historical earthquake record, geodetic studies, and the location of forearc basin gravity lows. Global Positioning System (GPS) data indicate that some areas of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, such as that beneath Sanak Island, are weakly coupled. We suggest that although these areas will have reduced slip during a giant earthquake, they are not really large enough to form a barrier to rupture. A key aspect in defining an earthquake source for tsunami generation is determining the possibility of significant slip on the updip end of the megathrust near the trench. Large slip on the updip part of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust is a viable possibility owing to the small frontal accretionary prism and the presence of arc basement relatively close to the trench along most of the megathrust.

  16. Dynamic triggering of creep events in the Salton Trough, Southern California by regional M ? 5.4 earthquakes constrained by geodetic observations and numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Meng; Liu, Yajing; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Bilham, Roger

    2015-10-01

    Since a regional earthquake in 1951, shallow creep events on strike-slip faults within the Salton Trough, Southern California have been triggered at least 10 times by M ? 5.4 earthquakes within 200 km. The high earthquake and creep activity and the long history of digital recording within the Salton Trough region provide a unique opportunity to study the mechanism of creep event triggering by nearby earthquakes. Here, we document the history of fault creep events on the Superstition Hills Fault based on data from creepmeters, InSAR, and field surveys since 1988. We focus on a subset of these creep events that were triggered by significant nearby earthquakes. We model these events by adding realistic static and dynamic perturbations to a theoretical fault model based on rate- and state-dependent friction. We find that the static stress changes from the causal earthquakes are less than 0.1 MPa and too small to instantaneously trigger creep events. In contrast, we can reproduce the characteristics of triggered slip with dynamic perturbations alone. The instantaneous triggering of creep events depends on the peak and the time-integrated amplitudes of the dynamic Coulomb stress change. Based on observations and simulations, the stress change amplitude required to trigger a creep event of a 0.01-mm surface slip is about 0.6 MPa. This threshold is at least an order of magnitude larger than the reported triggering threshold of non-volcanic tremors (2-60 kPa) and earthquakes in geothermal fields (5 kPa) and near shale gas production sites (0.2-0.4 kPa), which may result from differences in effective normal stress, fault friction, the density of nucleation sites in these systems, or triggering mechanisms. We conclude that shallow frictional heterogeneity can explain both the spontaneous and dynamically triggered creep events on the Superstition Hills Fault.

  17. Surface slip associated with the 2014 South Napa, California earthquake measured on alinement arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienkaemper, J. J.; Brooks, B. A.; DeLong, S. B.; Domrose, C. J.; Rosa, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The main rupture associated with the South Napa earthquake of Sept. 24, 2014 was ~15 km long from its epicenter (defined here as km 0, see figure below) to the surface rupture's north end (~km 15). Near km 10 a maximum of ~0.45 m dextral slip was most likely entirely coseismic, because it showed the same amount of slip at 12 days post-earthquake (d-PE) as it did at 1.5 d-PE. However, farther south (km~6) by 1-2 d-PE conspicuous growth of offsets on cultural features indicated high rates of afterslip (~10-20 cm/day) had occurred. Although afterslip is gradually slowing, it is expected to continue for many months or possibly years. To closely monitor this rapid afterslip, we installed four 70-140-m-long alinement arrays across the main rupture (labeled NLAR-NLOD on figure below), measuring slip to millimeter accuracy. A fifth array that spans a northeastern branch rupture has shown no afterslip. We have run early observations (to 26-d-PE) of afterslip (coupled with accumulated total slip as measured on adjacent offset cultural features) in the program AFTER (Boatwright et al., 1989). This analysis allows us to make preliminary estimates of initial (1 d-PE), final or total accumulated event slip, and coseismic estimates (i.e., projecting slip toward a ~0.5-1 s rise time). Thus far modeled slip on all four arrays indicates that final values of total (coseismic plus post-seismic) slip might be approaching the maximum coseismic slip as a limit (~0.4 ± 0.1 m). The final values of total surface slip may thus become more uniform along the fault over time as compared to modeled heterogeneous seismic slip at depth. The timing of the surface slip release differs strikingly from south to north along the 2014 rupture; AFTER models suggest that slip south of the location of maximum slip (km 0-10) appears to have been dominantly postseismic (~50-100%), whereas north of the maximum slip (km 10-15) slip was mainly coseismic (~50-100%). The current AFTER model predicts that as surface slip along the fault approaches final values of total slip associated with this earthquake (e.g., ?1000 d-PE), the respective contributions to the total event surface slip integrated along the entire fault will approach being 27% coseismic slip and 73% postseismic slip. . . .

  18. Adjoint Tomography of the Southern California Crust

    E-print Network

    Tape, Carl

    to the initial three-dimensional model provided by the Southern California Earthquake Center. The model California. The initial model was provided by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and contains

  19. Reasoning Under Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Analysis: Modeling the Joint Probability of Earthquake, Site and Ground-Motion Parameters Using Bayesian Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuehn, N. M.; Carsten, R.; Frank, S.

    2008-12-01

    Empirical ground-motion models for use in seismic hazard analysis are commonly described by regression models, where the ground-motion parameter is assumed to be dependent on some earthquake- and site- specific parameters such as magnitude, distance or local vs30. In regression analysis only the target is treated as a random variable, while the predictors are not; they are implicitly assumed to be complete and error-free, which is not the case for magnitudes or distances in earthquake catalogs. However, in research areas such as machine learning or artificial intelligence techniques to overcome these issues exist. Borrowing from these fields, we present a novel multivariate approach to ground-motion estimation by means of the Bayesian network (BN) formalism. This elegant and intuitively appealing framework allows for reasoning under uncertainty by modeling directly the joint probability distribution of all variables, while at the same time offering explicit insight into the probabilistic relationships between variables. The formalism provides us with efficient methods for computing any marginal or conditional distribution of any subset of variables. In particular, if some earthquake- or site-related parameters are unknown, the distribution of the ground motion parameter of interest can still be calculated. In this case, the associated uncertainty is incorporated in the model framework. Here, we explore the use of BNs in the development of ground-motion models. Therefore, we construct BNs for both a synthetic and the NGA dataset, the most comprehensive strong ground motion dataset currently available. The analysis shows that BNs are able to capture the probabilistic dependencies between the different variables of interest. Comparison of the learned BN with the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (2008) shows a reasonable agreement in distance and magnitude ranges with good data coverage.

  20. Geodetic estimate of coseismic slip during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Lisowski, M.; Prescott, W.H.; Savage, J.C.; Johnston, M.J. )

    1990-08-01

    Offsets in the relative positions of geodetic stations resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake can be explained with a dislocation model that includes buried oblique slip on a rupture surface extending 37 km along the strike of the San Andreas fault, dipping 70{degree} to the SW, and extending from a depth of about 5 to 17.5 km. Assuming uniform slip on a rectangular surface, the mean values for a range of reasonable fault geometries are 1.6{plus minus}0.3 m right-lateral strike slip and 1.2{plus minus}0.3 m reverse slip. Slip on an adjacent extension of the rupture to the southeast, recorded in the aftershock sequence, is not well constrained by the geodetic data. The geodetic data clearly preclude rupture extending near the surface.

  1. EFFECTS OF THE 1906 EARTHQUAKE ON THE BALD HILL OUTLET SYSTEM, SAN MATEO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pampeyan, Earl H.

    1986-01-01

    Following the earthquake of April 18, 1906, it was discovered that a brick forebay and other parts of the reservoir outlet system were in the slip zone of the San Andreas fault. The original outlet through which water was directed to San Francisco consisted of two tunnels joined at the brick forebay; one tunnel extends 2,820 ft to the east under Bald Hill on Buri Buri Ridge, and the other tunnel intersects the lake bottom about 250 ft west of the forebay. In 1897 a second intake was added to the system, also joining the original forebay. During the present study the accessible parts of this original outlet system were examined with the hope of learning how the system had been affected by fault slip in 1906.

  2. Non-double-couple earthquake mechanisms at the Geysers geothermal area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, A.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1996-01-01

    Inverting P- and S-wave polarities and P:SH amplitude ratios using linear programming methods suggests that about 20% of earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal area have significantly non-double-couple focal mechanisms, with explosive volumetric components as large as 33% of the seismic moment. This conclusion contrasts with those of earlier studies, which interpreted data in terms of double couples. The non-double-couple mechanisms are consistent with combined shear and tensile faulting, possibly caused by industrial water injection. Implosive mechanisms, which might be expected because of rapid steam withdrawal, have not been found. Significant compensated-linear-vector-dipole (CLVD) components in some mechanisms may indicate rapid fluid flow accompanying crack opening. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Deep Structure Of Long Valley, California, Based On Deep Reflections From Earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Zucca, J. J.; Kasameyer, P. W.

    1987-01-01

    Knowledge of the deep structure of Long Valley comes primarily from seismic studies. Most of these efforts have focused on delimiting the top of the inferred magma chamber. We present evidence for the location of the bottom of the low velocity layer (LVL). Two other studies have provided similar information. Steeples and Iyer (1976) inferred from teleseismic P-wave delays that low-velocity material extends from 7 km depth to 25 to 40 km, depending on the velocities assumed. Luetgert and Mooney (1985) have examined seismic refraction data from earthquake sources and have identified a reflection that appears to be from the lower boundary of a magma chamber. They detected the reflection with a linear array of single component stations, and assuming it traveled in a vertical plane, matched the travel time and apparent velocity (6.3 km/sec) to deduce that it was a P-P reflection from within a LVL. We recorded a similar phase with a 2-dimensional array of three-component stations, and carried out a similar analysis, but utilized additional information about the travel path, particle motions and amplitudes to constrain our interpretation. Our data comes from a passive seismic refraction experiment conducted during August 1982. Fourteen portable seismograph stations were deployed in a network with approximately 5 km station spacing in the Mono Craters region north of Long Valley (Figure 1). The network recorded earthquakes located south of Long Valley and in the south moat. Three components of motion were recorded at all sites. The data represent one of the few times that three-component data has been collected for raypaths through a magma chamber in the Long Valley area.

  4. Mapping of the high-frequency source radiation for the Loma Prieta earthquake, California

    SciTech Connect

    Zeng, Y.; Aki, K.; Teng, T.L.

    1993-07-10

    Waveform inversion has been successfully applied to map the spatial distribution of earthquake fault slip from strong motion records. But its application has been restricted to a relatively lower frequency range of the data (f < 2.0-3.0 Hz) essentially due to the difficulties in calculating the high-frequency Green`s function. However, the authors can avoid these difficulties by simply looking at the seismic wave energy envelopes instead of the complicated high-frequency wave phases. By assuming that the slip responsible for high-frequency wave (e.g., f > 5 Hz) generation is incoherent between neighboring patches on the fault, they formulated an analytical model for calculating the envelope time history of the squared high-frequency displacement seismogram. This envelope time history is found through the line integration of the squared energy radiation intensity over the isochron. Using a recursive stochastic inversion scheme, they determined both the lower-frequency slip distributions from the low-pass-filtered strong motion displacement data and the higher-frequency energy radiation intensity from the envelope of the squared high-frequency displacement data on an extended fault for the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, respectively. Their resulting lower-frequency slip model shows that there are two main slip patches and little slip directly updip of the hypocenter. Their preliminary results of the high-frequency energy radiation intensity inversion indicate three large high-frequency sources and few smaller ones located on the outer periphery of the large slip zones. This suggests that the high-frequency energy sources are located along or near the boundaries of large slip zones, which is consistent with the theoretical consideration that high frequencies are primarily generated from the rupture stopping areas or places with large slip variation. 36 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. Analysis of Injection-Induced Micro-Earthquakes in a Geothermal Steam Reservoir, The Geysers Geothermal Field, California

    SciTech Connect

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Rutqvist, J.; Oldenburg, C.M.

    2008-05-15

    In this study we analyze relative contributions to the cause and mechanism of injection-induced micro-earthquakes (MEQs) at The Geysers geothermal field, California. We estimated the potential for inducing seismicity by coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical analysis of the geothermal steam production and cold water injection to calculate changes in stress (in time and space) and investigated if those changes could induce a rock mechanical failure and associated MEQs. An important aspect of the analysis is the concept of a rock mass that is critically stressed for shear failure. This means that shear stress in the region is near the rock-mass frictional strength, and therefore very small perturbations of the stress field can trigger an MEQ. Our analysis shows that the most important cause for injection-induced MEQs at The Geysers is cooling and associated thermal-elastic shrinkage of the rock around the injected fluid that changes the stress state in such a way that mechanical failure and seismicity can be induced. Specifically, the cooling shrinkage results in unloading and associated loss of shear strength in critically shear-stressed fractures, which are then reactivated. Thus, our analysis shows that cooling-induced shear slip along fractures is the dominant mechanism of injection-induced MEQs at The Geysers.

  6. Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2007-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

  7. Electrical structure in a region of the Transverse Ranges, southern California. [for earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, I. K.; Phillips, R. J.; Whitcomb, J. H.; Rankin, D.

    1977-01-01

    Magnetotelluric sounding at a site in the Transverse Ranges province in southern California indicates a low-resistivity region in the lower crust and possibly also the upper mantle. A two-dimensional model fit to the data indicates that the resistivity of this region is between 1 and 10 ohm-meters. The depth to the top surface of this zone is between 15 and 20 km. The lateral extent of this feature, which strikes N65 deg W, appears to be confined to the Transverse Ranges province. The petrological characteristics of this region cannot be deduced unambiguously from the magnetotelluric sounding alone.

  8. Spatially heterogeneous stress field in the source area of the 2011 Mw 6.6 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake, NE Japan, probably caused by static stress change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Keisuke; Hasegawa, Akira; Okada, Tomomi

    2015-05-01

    In order to know whether principal stress orientations in the source area rotated after the 2011 April 11 Mw 6.6 Fukushima-Hamadori earthquake in NE Japan, we investigated detailed spatial distributions of stress orientations for both the pre- and post-main shock periods using a large amount of focal mechanism data. We applied stress tensor inversions to focal mechanism data from Japan's National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention's F-net broadband seismic network and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The ?3-axes estimated for the pre-main shock period are predominantly oriented WSW-ENE, and are relatively homogeneously in space. In contrast, the orientations of the ?3-axes show a significantly heterogeneous distribution in space for the post-main shock period. In the northern subarea of the focal region, the ?3-axes are oriented NW-SE. In the east and west portions of the central subarea, they are oriented NNW-SSE and WNW-ESE, respectively, almost perpendicular to each other. In the southern subarea, the ?3-axes are oriented WSW-ENE. On the whole, the ?3-axis orientations show concentric circle-like distribution surrounding the large slip area of the Mw Mw 6.6 main shock rupture. The change of principal stress axis orientations after the earthquake is not significant because of the sparse data set for the pre-main shock period. We calculated static stress changes from the Mw 6.6 main shock and three Mw > 5.5 earthquakes to compare with the observed stress axis orientations in the post-main shock period. The ?3-axis orientations of the calculated total static stress change show a concentric circle-like distribution surrounding the large slip area of the main shock, similar to that noted above. This observation strongly suggests that the spatially heterogeneous stress orientations in the post-main shock period were caused by the static stress change from the Mw 6.6 main shock and other large earthquakes. In order to estimate the differential stress magnitude in the focal area, we calculated deviatoric stress tensors in the post-main shock period by assuming that they are the sum of the deviatoric stress tensors in the pre-main shock period and the static stress changes. Comparison of the calculated and observed stress tensors revealed differential stress magnitudes of 2-30 MPa that explain the observed stress orientations, considering the probable range of estimated stress ratios in the pre-main shock period.

  9. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  10. Moment-tensor solutions for the 24 November 1987 Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sipkin, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    The teleseismic long-period waveforms recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network from the two largest Superstition Hills earthquakes are inverted using an algorithm based on optimal filter theory. These solutions differ slightly from those published in the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters Monthly Listing because a somewhat different, improved data set was used in the inversions and a time-dependent moment-tensor algorithm was used to investigate the complexity of the main shock. The foreshock (origin time 01:54:14.5, mb 5.7, Ms6.2) had a scalar moment of 2.3 ?? 1025 dyne-cm, a depth of 8km, and a mechanism of strike 217??, dip 79??, rake 4??. The main shock (origin time 13:15:56.4, mb 6.0, Ms6.6) was a complex event, consisting of at least two subevents, with a combined scalar moment of 1.0 ?? 1026 dyne-cm, a depth of 10km, and a mechanism of strike 303??, dip 89??, rake -180??. -Authors

  11. Surface deformation before, during and after the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake from a spatially dense network of survey and continuous GPS site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Floyd, M.; Funning, G.; Murray, J. R.; Svarc, J. L.; Herring, T.; Johanson, I. A.; Swiatlowski, J.; Materna, K.; Johnson, C. W.; Boyd, O. S.; Sutton, J. M.; Phillips, E.

    2014-12-01

    The South Napa, California, earthquake occurred on the West Napa Fault within a dense network of established GPS sites. Continuous sites from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) and other publicly-available networks lie mostly in the far-field, greater than 15 km from the epicenter. The near-field is covered by two networks of survey GPS sites, one observed by the University of California, Riverside (UCR) and MIT, and the other by the US Geological Survey (USGS). First, we present the pre-earthquake GPS velocity solution from the combination of these networks, covering the entire Pacific-North America plate boundary zone north of San Francisco Bay. We take 1-D fault-perpendicular profile and block model approaches to fit the GPS velocities, both with and without an explicit West Napa Fault, to update previous estimates of slip rates on faults to the east of the Rodgers Creek Fault, which include the West Napa and Green Valley Faults. Second, we present results from the survey GPS field response to the South Napa earthquake. 13 survey sites within 20 km of the epicenter were re-observed within 15 hours of the earthquake by a UCR-MIT group with assistance from UC Berkeley. An additional two sites to the north of the rupture were re-observed within 36 hours. A USGS-led group re-observed 17 sites within 25 km of the epicenter, as well as sites further afield. In total, 35 survey-mode GPS instruments were deployed to observe post-earthquake motions for up to four weeks after the event. Maximum displacements of greater than 20 cm are observed at two survey GPS sites within 2 km and either side of the surface rupture, in agreement with visual inspection of surface rupture offsets. Other observed survey sites within 20 km show at least 2 cm of displacement and 22 continuous GPS sites show displacements that are statistically significant at the 2-sigma level. Further, we show post-earthquake displacements over time as a result of this event relative to our precise pre-earthquake velocity solution.

  12. Measuring Possible Tsunami Currents from the April 1, 2014 Mw 8.2 Chile Earthquake in Crescent City, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Admire, A. R.; Crawford, G. B.; Dengler, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    Crescent City, California has a long history of damaging tsunamis. Thirty-nine tsunamis have been recorded since 1933, including five that caused damage. Crescent City's harbor and small boat basin are particularly vulnerable to strong currents. Humboldt State University has installed Acoustic Doppler Profilers (ADPs) in order to directly measure water pressure fluctuations and currents caused by tsunamis. An instrument in Humboldt Bay, ~100 km south of Crescent City, recorded tsunamis generated by the 2010 Mw 8.7 Chile and 2011 Mw 9.0 Japan earthquakes and demonstrated the usefulness of ADPs in measuring tsunami currents. In 2013, an ADP was deployed in Crescent City's harbor adjacent to the NOAA tide gauge. On April 1, 2014, a Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred in northern Chile, producing a modest Pacific-wide tsunami and a 16 cm peak amplitude on the Crescent City tide gauge. We analyze the ADP data before and during the expected arrival of the April 2 tsunami to see if a tsunami signal is present. Tidal currents are generally small (5 cm/s or less). For two months before the tsunami, intermittent, high-frequency variability is present in velocity and pressure at periods on the order of 20, 9 and 5 min, which compare favorably to modal periods predicted using some simplified models of open-ended basins. For several hours after the tsunami arrival on April 2, spectral power levels in velocity and pressure around the 20 min period are notably enhanced. These results suggest that: (1) the observed periods of enhanced variability represent the first three modes (n=0, 1 and 2) of free oscillations in the harbor, (2) the dominant period of (non-tidal) oscillations observed during the April 2, 2014 tsunami (~20 min) and during previous tsunamis (e.g., the water level record for the March 11, 2011 tsunami; also ~20 min) represents harbor resonance corresponding to the lowest order mode, and (3) this event is very near the ADP limit of detectability with peak tsunami currents of 5-10 cm/s and higher frequency variability and instrument noise root-mean-squared amplitude of 4-5 cm/s.

  13. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time?dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground?motion exceedance probabilities as well as short?term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long?term forecasts of probabilistic seismic?hazard analysis (PSHA).

  14. Correlation of ground motion and intensity for the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Thywissen, K.; Seekins, L.C.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the correlations between intensity and a set of groundmotion parameters obtained from 66 free-field stations in Los Angeles County that recorded the 1994 Northridge earthquake. We use the tagging intensities from Thywissen and Boatwright (1998) because these intensities are determined independently on census tracts, rather than interpolated from zip codes, as are the modified Mercalli isoseismals from Dewey et al. (1995). The ground-motion parameters we consider are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the peak ground velocity (PGV), the 5% damped pseudovelocity response spectral (PSV) ordinates at 14 periods from 0.1 to 7.5 sec, and the rms average of these spectral ordinates from 0.3 to 3 sec. Visual comparisons of the distribution of tagging intensity with contours of PGA, PGV, and the average PSV suggest that PGV and the average PSV are better correlated with the intensity than PGA. The correlation coefficients between the intensity and the ground-motion parameters bear this out: r = 0.75 for PGA, 0.85 for PGV, and 0.85 for the average PSV. Correlations between the intensity and the PSV ordinates, as a function of period, are strongest at 1.5 sec (r = 0.83) and weakest at 0.2 sec (r = 0.66). Regressing the intensity on the logarithms of these ground-motion parameters yields relations I ?? mlog?? with 3.0 ??? m ??? 5.2 for the parameters analyzed, where m = 4.4 ?? 0.7 for PGA, 3.4 ?? 0.4 for PGV, and 3.6 ?? 0.5 for the average PSV.

  15. Finite-fault analysis of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake using Pnl waveforms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.

    2008-01-01

    We apply a kinematic finite-fault inversion scheme to Pnl displacement waveforms recorded at 14 regional stations (?w 5.0 aftershock. Slip is modeled on a rectangular fault subdivided into 2×2 km subfaults assuming a constant rupture velocity and a 0.5 sec rise time. A passband filter of 0.1–0.5 Hz is applied to both data and subfault responses prior to waveform inversion. The SGF inversions are performed such that the final seismic moment is consistent with the known magnitude (Mw 6.0) of the earthquake. For these runs, it is difficult to reproduce the entire Pnl waveform due to inaccuracies in the assumed crustal structure. Also, the misfit between observed and predicted vertical waveforms is similar in character for different rupture velocities, indicating that neither the rupture velocity nor the exact position of slip sources along the fault can be uniquely identified. The pattern of coseismic slip, however, compares well with independent source models derived using other data types, indicating that the SGF inversion procedure provides a general first-order estimate of the 2004 Parkfield rupture using the vertical Pnl records. The best-constrained slip model is obtained using the single-aftershock EGF approach. In this case, the waveforms are very well reproduced for both vertical and horizontal components, suggesting that the method provides a powerful tool for estimating the distribution of coseismic slip using the regional Pnl waveforms. The inferred slip model shows a localized patch of high slip (55 cm peak) near the hypocenter and a larger slip area (~50 cm peak) extending between 6 and 20 km to the northwest.

  16. Postearthquake relaxation after the 2004 M6 Parkfield, California, earthquake and rate-and-state friction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Langbein, J.

    2008-01-01

    An unusually complete set of measurements (including rapid rate GPS over the first 10 days) of postseismic deformation is available at 12 continuous GPS stations located close to the epicenter of the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The principal component modes for the relaxation of the ensemble of those 12 GPS stations were determined. The first mode alone furnishes an adequate approximation to the data. Thus, the relaxation at all stations can be represented by the product of a common temporal function and distinct amplitudes for each component (north or east) of relaxation at each station. The distribution in space of the amplitudes indicates that the relaxation is dominantly strike slip. The temporal function, which spans times from about 5 min to 900 days postearthquake, can be fit by a superposition of three creep terms, each of the form ??l loge(1 + t/??l), with characteristic times ??, = 4.06, 0.11, and 0.0001 days. It seems likely that what is actually involved is a broad spectrum of characteristic times, the individual components of which arise from afterslip on different fault patches. Perfettini and Avouac (2004) have shown that an individual creep term can be explained by the spring-slider model with rate-dependent (no state variable) friction. The observed temporal function can also be explained using a single spring-slider model (i.e., single fault patch) that includes rate-and-state-dependent friction, a single-state variable, and either of the two commonly used (aging and slip) state evolution laws. In the latter fits, the rate-and-state friction parameter b is negative.

  17. Afterslip (and only afterslip) following the 2004 Parkfield, California, Andrew M. Freed1

    E-print Network

    Freed, Andrew

    Afterslip (and only afterslip) following the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake Andrew M. Freed Parkfield, California earthquake. Finite element modeling shows this event to have been too small. (2007), Afterslip (and only afterslip) following the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake, Geophys

  18. Can earthquakes be Karen Felzer

    E-print Network

    Felzer, Karen

    Can earthquakes be predicted? Karen Felzer U.S. Geological Survey #12;Earthquake predictions that most seismologists agree with #12;Long term earthquake probabilities These kinds of predictions to duck and cover! >99% chance that a M 6.7 earthquake will occur in CA within 30 years. 2008 Working

  19. The Mw 6.5 offshore Northern California earthquake of 10 January 2010: Ordinary stress drop on a high-strength fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Meng; McGuire, Jeffrey J.

    2014-09-01

    The 10 January 2010 Mw 6.5 earthquake offshore Northern California is one of the first intraplate earthquakes in oceanic lithosphere to be well captured by a GPS network. It presents an opportunity to evaluate rupture mechanics on a high-strength fault. Static inversion of the coseismic displacements shows that the slip peaks at the same depth as the expected strength envelope, where the differential stresses can be as high as 600 MPa. Laboratory experiments on peridotite predict dramatic dynamic weakening at these conditions. The observed ordinary stress drop, 2-20 MPa, may indicate that the lithosphere is much weaker than strength envelope predicts or that the failure mechanisms seen in the laboratory are not occurring during the rupture. The GPS observations show very little postseismic signal indicating that if a shear zone exists beneath the coseismic rupture, it operates at significantly greater stress levels than the coseismic stress change.

  20. Special report. The 1994 Southern California earthquake: its continuing impact on area hospitals and some lessons it can teach all hospitals on disaster preparedness.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    The massive earthquake that rocked Southern California on January 17 left area hospitals facing both an influx of patients and heavily damaged facilities. Several hospitals were forced to shut down temporarily, although in most cases not before quake victims were triaged and other patients were safely transferred to other facilities. With damage totals still being calculated and repair projects just under way, several hospitals already are evaluating their response to the quake in an effort to be even more prepared should another disaster of that magnitude occur. This special report will provide an overview of the damages suffered by several hospitals; describe the role played by administrators and staff--particularly the security department--in the aftermath of the quake; and offer advice from hospital officials on how to best prepare for an earthquake or another natural disaster and how to function most effectively in the aftermath. PMID:10135868

  1. earthquake warning earthquake strikes

    E-print Network

    Emergency earthquake warning When an earthquake strikes Immediately after the earthquake Several-8550 For Students LargeLaargege Earthquake #12;According to tables explaining the JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency situation Wooden houses Ground situation Lifelines Slopes, etc. situation In preparation for an earthquake

  2. earthquake warning earthquake strikes

    E-print Network

    Emergency earthquake warning When an earthquake strikes Immediately after the earthquake Several, Kanagawa 226-8503 For Students LargeLaargege Earthquake #12;According to tables explaining the JMA (Japan for an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 5-Lower or greater, this manual summarizes what you should do

  3. Source characteristics of the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 18, 1989 from global digital seismic data

    SciTech Connect

    Choy, G.L. ); Boatwright, J. )

    1990-07-01

    Displacement, velocity and acceleration records of P and SH body waves recorded at teleseismic distances are analyzed to determine the static and dynamic source parameters of the Loma Prieta, California earthquake of October 18, 1989 (m{sub b} 6.6, M{sub s} 7.1). Three distinct bursts of energy corresponding to three subevents can be recognized in most records. The displacement waveforms indicate that the first subevent contributes negligible moment while the largest releases of moment and energy are controlled by the second and third subevents. The second and third subevents are located north and south of the initial nucleation. A fourth small subevent needed to model later features of the P waveforms suggests that slow slip continued after the major releases of energy occurred. The waveforms are fit with a fault plane solution having strike 130{degree}, dip 65{degree} and slip 140{degree} for all the subevents. The focal depths of the two major subevents are 16 and 12 km, and their asperity radii are 4.0 and 6.0 km, respectively. The seismic moment, M{sub o}, is 2.2{times}10{sup 26} dyne-cm. From spectral analysis of teleseismic velocity, the radiated energy, E{sub s}, is estimated to be 1.1{times}10{sup 22} dyne-cm, implying an apparent stress of 15 bars. From the high-frequency level of the teleseismic acceleration spectrum and a rupture area of 440 km{sup 2}, the authors derive a dynamic stress drop of 51 bars.

  4. The effects of attenuation on the scaling of source parameters for earthquakes at Anza, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, J. B.; Haar, L. C.; Vernon, F. L.; Brune, J. N.; Hanks, T. C.; Berger, J.

    Source radii for Anza earthquakes calculated from spectral corner frequencies are surprisingly constant over 4 orders of magnitude in moment. This apparent constancy leads to a strong dependence of stress drop on moment: the largest events (1021 dyne-cm) have stress drops of about 100 bars, whereas events with moment of 1018 dyne-cm or less have stress drops of a bar or less. However, displacement spectra used for corner frequency picks were not corrected for attenuation. In this paper we explore two arguments which suggest that an attenuation correction would alter, but not eliminate the small stress drops. Spectral ratios calculated for three events strongly support a linear frequency-dependent Q. The dependence Q = 12.9 + 11.8 f was obtained from one ratio for which the effect of (f ? 60 Hz) site resonances appeared to be at a minimum. Above 60 Hz the spectra would require an exponentially increasing Q. Alternatively, this could be due to their being contaminated by excessive noise above 60 Hz. The high Q/low attenuation at higher frequencies suggests that corner frequencies would not change drastically as a result of this attenuation correction. This method, however, does not differentiate where along the ray path attenuation is occurring or attenuation that may be common to all of the recording sites. f max, the intercept of the level part of acceleration spectra with high-frequency decay, can be interpreted as a site-specific attenuation parameter. Anza stations to the north and east tend to have a high fmax (? 30 Hz) compared to stations near the trifurcation of the San Jacinto-Buck Ridge-Coyote Creek faults, and to the southwest. Most of the corner frequencies at a specific station will tend to be lower than the fmax for that station, thus attenuation does limit the upper range of corner frequencies. Source radii were recomputed using data only from just those stations with fmax ? 20 Hz and again from those with fmax ? 30 Hz. Recomputed source radii for some events did shift to smaller values, but the overall range of stress drops stayed about the same. We conclude that some events with high corner frequencies were affected by attenuation at the low fmax sites, but that on the average, this is not a severe effect.

  5. Seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zones of the Landers, California, earthquake of 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Y.G.; Aki, K.; Adams, D.; Hasemi, A.; Lee, W.H.K.

    1994-06-10

    A mobile seismic array of seven stations was deployed at 11 sites along the fault trace of the M7.4 Landers earthquake of June 28, 1992, with a maximum offset of 1 km from the trace. The authors found a distinct wave train with a relatively long period following the S waves that shows up only when both the stations and the events are close to the fault trace. This wave train is interpreted as a seismic guided wave trapped in a low-velocity fault zone. To study the distribution of amplitude of the guided waves with distance from the fault trace and also their attenuation with travel distance along the fault zone, the authors eliminated source and recording site effects by the coda normalization method. The normalized amplitudes of guided waves show a spectral peak at 3-4 Hz, which decays sharply with distance from the fault trace. Spectral amplitudes at high frequencies (8-15 Hz) show an opposite trend, increasing with distance from the fault trace. The normalized amplitudes of guided waves at 3-4 Hz also show a systematic decrease with hypocentral distance along the fault zone, from which the authors infer an apparent Q of 50. In order to confirm the existence of the guided waves, a dense array of 31 stations was deployed at one of the 11 sites. The resultant records revealed unequivocal evidence for the existence of guided waves associated with the fault zone. By modeling the waveforms as S waves trapped in a low-velocity waveguide sandwiched between two homogeneous half-spaces with velocity V{sub s} = 3.0 km/s, the authors infer a waveguide width of about 180 m, a shear velocity of 2.0-2.2 km/s, and a Q of {approximately} 50. Hypocenters of aftershocks with clear guided waves show a systematic distribution both laterally and with depth delineating the extent of the low-velocity fault zone in three dimensions. The authors find that the zone extends to a depth of at least 10 km. 35 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs.

  6. The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Investigation of rupture velocity, risetime, and high-frequency radiation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.

    1996-01-01

    A hybrid global search algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear problem of calculating slip amplitude, rake, risetime, and rupture time on a finite fault. Thirty-five strong motion velocity records are inverted by this method over the frequency band from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz for the Northridge earthquake. Four regions of larger-amplitude slip are identified: one near the hypocenter at a depth of 17 km, a second west of the hypocenter at about the same depth, a third updip from the hypocenter at a depth of 10 km, and a fourth updip from the hypocenter and to the northwest. The results further show an initial fast rupture with a velocity of 2.8 to 3.0 km/s followed by a slow termination of the rupture with velocities of 2.0 to 2.5 km/s. The initial energetic rupture phase lasts for 3 s, extending out 10 km from the hypocenter. Slip near the hypocenter has a short risetime of 0.5 s, which increases to 1.5 s for the major slip areas removed from the hypocentral region. The energetic rupture phase is also shown to be the primary source of high-frequency radiation (1-15 Hz) by an inversion of acceleration envelopes. The same global search algorithm is used in the envelope inversion to calculate high-frequency radiation intensity on the fault and rupture time. The rupture timing from the low- and high-frequency inversions is similar, indicating that the high frequencies are produced primarily at the mainshock rupture front. Two major sources of high-frequency radiation are identified within the energetic rupture phase, one at the hypocenter and another deep source to the west of the hypocenter. The source at the hypocenter is associated with the initiation of rupture and the breaking of a high-stress-drop asperity and the second is associated with stopping of the rupture in a westerly direction.

  7. Earthquake Safety Guide for Homeowners

    E-print Network

    Oklahoma, University of

    Earthquake Safety Guide for Homeowners FEMA 530 / September 2005 FEMA #12; PublishingInformation The Homeowner's Guide to Earthquake Safety was originally developed and published by the California Seismic that slid 2 feet off its foundation as a result of the 6.5 San Simeon Earthquake. #12;CONTENTS Page

  8. The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Dollar, R.S.; Johnson, P.

    2000-01-01

    A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'-is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

  9. Seismic site effects and the spatial interpolation of earthquake seismograms: results using aftershocks of the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Miller, D.P.

    1990-01-01

    We address the following two questions. Can a microearthquake's ground motions be modeled by incident P and S waves that excite a site transfer-function that is a smooth function of incidence angle? Given recorded ground motions from a set of earthquakes having known locations and mechanisms, can we derive such a site transfer-function and use it to obtain the ground motions that would result from an earthquake source occurring somewhere in the same volume but having a location and mechanism that are different from the recorded events? We express the site transfer-function as a sum of several terms having simple dependences upon incidence angle and azimuth. Each term is an independent function of time. Given a set of seismograms observed at the site, we solve a linear system of equations for the time dependences of each term. These time series may be used to calculate the seismograms that would have resulted from an earthquake having arbitrary mechanism and location. This step is an interpolation. We have applied this technique to seismograms after aftershocks of the 1986 North Palm Springs earthquake. -from Authors

  10. Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

    2005-12-01

    The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

  11. Evidence for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, California paleoseismic site: A.D. 500 to present

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fumal, T.E.; Weldon, R.J.; Biasi, G.P.; Dawson, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.; Frost, W.T.; Schwartz, D.P.

    2002-01-01

    We present structural and stratigraphic evidence from a paleoseismic site near Wrightwood, California, for 14 large earthquakes that occurred on the southern San Andreas fault during the past 1500 years. In a network of 38 trenches and creek-bank exposures, we have exposed a composite section of interbedded debris flow deposits and thin peat layers more than 24 m thick; fluvial deposits occur along the northern margin of the site. The site is a 150-m-wide zone of deformation bounded on the surface by a main fault zone along the northwest margin and a secondary fault zone to the southwest. Evidence for most of the 14 earthquakes occurs along structures within both zones. We identify paleoearthquake horizons using infilled fissures, scarps, multiple rupture terminations, and widespread folding and tilting of beds. Ages of stratigraphic units and earthquakes are constrained by historic data and 72 14C ages, mostly from samples of peat and some from plant fibers, wood, pine cones, and charcoal. Comparison of the long, well-resolved paleoseimic record at Wrightwood with records at other sites along the fault indicates that rupture lengths of past earthquakes were at least 100 km long. Paleoseismic records at sites in the Coachella Valley suggest that each of the past five large earthquakes recorded there ruptured the fault at least as far northwest as Wrightwood. Comparisons with event chronologies at Pallett Creek and sites to the northwest suggests that approximately the same part of the fault that ruptured in 1857 may also have failed in the early to mid-sixteenth century and several other times during the past 1200 years. Records at Pallett Creek and Pitman Canyon suggest that, in addition to the 14 earthquakes we document, one and possibly two other large earthquakes ruptured the part of the fault including Wrightwood since about A.D. 500. These observations and elapsed times that are significantly longer than mean recurrence intervals at Wrightwood and sites to the southeast suggest that at least the southermost 200 km of the San Andreas fault is near failure.

  12. Testing hypotheses of earthquake occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.

    2003-12-01

    We present a relatively straightforward likelihood method for testing those earthquake hypotheses that can be stated as vectors of earthquake rate density in defined bins of area, magnitude, and time. We illustrate the method as it will be applied to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Several earthquake forecast models are being developed as part of this project, and additional contributed forecasts are welcome. Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. We would test models in pairs, requiring that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. Thus we offer a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to encourage standardization. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Forecasts would be in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.05 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, would be also be archived and used in the tests. The five-year forecast category may be appropriate for testing hypotheses of stress shadows from large earthquakes. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.05 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. All earthquakes would be counted, and no attempt made to separate foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks. Earthquakes would be considered as point sources located at the hypocenter. For each pair of forecasts, we plan to compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability that the second would be wrongly rejected in favor of the first. Computing alpha and beta requires knowing the theoretical distribution of likelihood scores under each hypothesis, which we will estimate by simulations. Each forecast is given equal status; there is no "null hypothesis" which would be accepted by default. Forecasts and test results would be archived and posted on the RELM web site. The same methods can be applied to any region with adequate monitoring and sufficient earthquakes. If fewer than ten events are forecasted, the likelihood tests may not give definitive results. The tests do force certain requirements on the forecast models. Because the tests are based on absolute rates, stress models must be explicit about how stress increments affect past seismicity rates. Aftershocks of triggered events must be accounted for. Furthermore, the tests are sensitive to magnitude, so forecast models must specify the magnitude distribution of triggered events. Models should account for probable errors in magnitude and location by appropriate smoothing of the probabilities, as the tests will be "cold hearted:" near misses won't count.

  13. Offshore and onshore liquefaction at Moss Landing spit, central California, - result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greene, H. Gary

    1991-01-01

    As a result of the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake, liquefaction of the fluvial, estuarine, eolian, and beach sediments under a sand spit destroyed the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories and damaged other structures and utilities. Detailed offshore investigations indicate that liquefaction occurred over a large area (max. 8 km2) during or shortly after the earthquake with movement of unconsolidated sediment toward and into the head of Monterey submarine canyon. Many distinct lobate features were identified on the shallow shelf. These features almost certainly were the result of the October 17 earthquake; they were subsequently destroyed by winter storms. -from Authors

  14. Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasts on a Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Graves, W. R.

    2014-12-01

    We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged ("Poisson") forecast. A variety of statistical and fault-system models have been discussed for use in computing forecast probabilities. An example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, which has been using fault-based models to compute conditional probabilities in California since 1988. An example of a forecast is the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS), which is based on the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude-frequency law, the Omori aftershock law, and Poisson statistics. The method discussed in this talk is based on the observation that GR statistics characterize seismicity for all space and time. Small magnitude event counts (quake counts) are used as "markers" for the approach of large events. More specifically, if the GR b-value = 1, then for every 1000 M>3 earthquakes, one expects 1 M>6 earthquake. So if ~1000 M>3 events have occurred in a spatial region since the last M>6 earthquake, another M>6 earthquake should be expected soon. In physics, event count models have been called natural time models, since counts of small events represent a physical or natural time scale characterizing the system dynamics. In a previous research, we used conditional Weibull statistics to convert event counts into a temporal probability for a given fixed region. In the present paper, we move belyond a fixed region, and develop a method to compute these Natural Time Weibull (NTW) forecasts on a global scale, using an internally consistent method, in regions of arbitrary shape and size. We develop and implement these methods on a modern web-service computing platform, which can be found at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. We also discuss constraints on the User Interface (UI) that follow from practical considerations of site usability.

  15. Seismogeodesy of the 2014 Mw6.1 Napa earthquake, California: Rapid response and modeling of fast rupture on a dipping strike-slip fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melgar, Diego; Geng, Jianghui; Crowell, Brendan W.; Haase, Jennifer S.; Bock, Yehuda; Hammond, William C.; Allen, Richard M.

    2015-07-01

    Real-time high-rate geodetic data have been shown to be useful for rapid earthquake response systems during medium to large events. The 2014 Mw6.1 Napa, California earthquake is important because it provides an opportunity to study an event at the lower threshold of what can be detected with GPS. We show the results of GPS-only earthquake source products such as peak ground displacement magnitude scaling, centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution, and static slip inversion. We also highlight the retrospective real-time combination of GPS and strong motion data to produce seismogeodetic waveforms that have higher precision and longer period information than GPS-only or seismic-only measurements of ground motion. We show their utility for rapid kinematic slip inversion and conclude that it would have been possible, with current real-time infrastructure, to determine the basic features of the earthquake source. We supplement the analysis with strong motion data collected close to the source to obtain an improved postevent image of the source process. The model reveals unilateral fast propagation of slip to the north of the hypocenter with a delayed onset of shallow slip. The source model suggests that the multiple strands of observed surface rupture are controlled by the shallow soft sediments of Napa Valley and do not necessarily represent the intersection of the main faulting surface and the free surface. We conclude that the main dislocation plane is westward dipping and should intersect the surface to the east, either where the easternmost strand of surface rupture is observed or at the location where the West Napa fault has been mapped in the past.

  16. Comparisons of ground motions from five aftershocks of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake with empirical predictions largely based on data from California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, G.-Q.; Boore, D.M.; Igel, H.; Zhou, X.-Y.

    2004-01-01

    The observed ground motions from five large aftershocks of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake are compared with predictions from four equations based primarily on data from California. The four equations for active tectonic regions are those developed by Abrahamson and Silva (1997), Boore et al. (1997), Campbell (1997, 2001), and Sadigh et al. (1997). Comparisons are made for horizontal-component peak ground accelerations and 5%-damped pseudoacceleration response spectra at periods between 0.02 sec and 5 sec. The observed motions are in reasonable agreement with the predictions, particularly for distances from 10 to 30 km. This is in marked contrast to the motions from the Chi-Chi mainshock, which are much lower than the predicted motions for periods less than about 1 sec. The results indicate that the low motions in the mainshock are not due to unusual, localized absorption of seismic energy, because waves from the mainshock and the aftershocks generally traverse the same section of the crust and are recorded at the same stations. The aftershock motions at distances of 30-60 km are somewhat lower than the predictions (but not nearly by as small a factor as those for the mainshock), suggesting that the ground motion attenuates more rapidly in this region of Taiwan than it does in the areas we compare with it. We provide equations for the regional attenuation of response spectra, which show increasing decay of motion with distance for decreasing oscillator periods. This observational study also demonstrates that ground motions have large earthquake-location-dependent variability for a specific site. This variability reduces the accuracy with which an earthquake-specific prediction of site response can be predicted. Online Material: PGAs and PSAs from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and five aftershocks.

  17. Earthquake Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    During NASA's Apollo program, it was necessary to subject the mammoth Saturn V launch vehicle to extremely forceful vibrations to assure the moonbooster's structural integrity in flight. Marshall Space Flight Center assigned vibration testing to a contractor, the Scientific Services and Systems Group of Wyle Laboratories, Norco, California. Wyle-3S, as the group is known, built a large facility at Huntsville, Alabama, and equipped it with an enormously forceful shock and vibration system to simulate the liftoff stresses the Saturn V would encounter. Saturn V is no longer in service, but Wyle-3S has found spinoff utility for its vibration facility. It is now being used to simulate earthquake effects on various kinds of equipment, principally equipment intended for use in nuclear power generation. Government regulations require that such equipment demonstrate its ability to survive earthquake conditions. In upper left photo, Wyle3S is preparing to conduct an earthquake test on a 25ton diesel generator built by Atlas Polar Company, Ltd., Toronto, Canada, for emergency use in a Canadian nuclear power plant. Being readied for test in the lower left photo is a large circuit breaker to be used by Duke Power Company, Charlotte, North Carolina. Electro-hydraulic and electro-dynamic shakers in and around the pit simulate earthquake forces.

  18. Seismomagnetic effect generated by the October 18, 1989, M sub L 7. 1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, R.J.; Johnston, M.J.S. )

    1990-07-01

    A differentially connected array of proton magnetometers operated within the epicentral region of the October 18, 1989, M{sub L} 7.1. Loma Prieta earthquake for 12 years from 1974 to 1986. The closest magnetometer station was located 7.3 km from the epicenter of the earthquake and within 3 km of the site where anomalous ULF magnetic noise measurements were observed. Following the earthquake, the magnetometers were reinstalled with sensors replaced in the original undisturbed sensor holders. Comparison of pre-1986 total intensity magnetic field data with data obtained during the months following the earthquake indicate local offsets of about 1 nT may have been generated at stations nearest the epicenter. Tests on other continuous differenced data from 1983 to present indicate that offsets determined could be biased by as much as 0.7 nT. The offsets can be approximately fit with a simple seismomagnetic model of the earthquake for which 1.9 m of right lateral and 1.3 m of dip slip (southwest side up) occurred on a fault patch between 6 km and 18 km deep and 45 km long. The total rock magnetization is assumed to be 1.5 A/m. Since the offset has persisted following the earthquake, an alternate explanation in terms of electokinetic effects is unlikely even though transient ground water flow occurred following the earthquake. Comparison of pre-1986 and similar post-seismic total magnetic field noise does not indicate any change caused by aliasing of ULF (0.01 Hz-10 Hz) magnetic noise in the vicinity of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

  19. Ground fracturing at the southern end of Summit Ridge caused by October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake sequence (maps of Summit Ridge Shear Zones, en echelon tension cracks, complex and compound fractures, and small faults that formed coactively with the earthquake sequence)

    SciTech Connect

    Martosudarmo, S.Y.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.

    1997-12-31

    The Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989 was the first of three large earthquakes that occurred in California in less than 5 years. The main shock of the Loma Prieta earthquake was deep-seated, the rupture zones of the main shock did not reach the surface, and the earthquake produced enigmatic surface ruptures along the frontal faults of the Coast Range and in the epicentral area that were explained in several quite different ways. The Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was near surface and produced more than 80 km of spectacular surface rupture of many different kinematic expressions. Detailed study of fractures at Landers has provided a basis for re-evaluating earlier work on fractures produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake. This paper is a description of some of the fractures produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake and a discussion of their causes. Detailed mapping (scale of 1:250) in an area on either side of Summit Road and between Morrell Cutoff Road in the northwest and the intersection of Summit Road and San Jose-Soquel Road in the southeast has provided documentation of fracture orientations and differential displacements required to decipher the ground deformation in that area during the Loma Prieta earthquake.

  20. Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>? 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >?5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ?10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving more confidence in the estimate, and we use those data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption in the next year at 1.4x10-5.

  1. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Rundle, J. B.; Rundle, P. B.; Donnellan, A.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Li, P.; Malamud, B. D.; Grant, L. B.; Fox, G. C.; McLeod, D.; Yakovlev, G.; Parker, J.; Klein, W.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2005-01-01

    In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach. PMID:16219696

  2. Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

    2014-12-01

    Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

  3. Evidence for large-magnitude paleo-earthquakes on the Ventura fault: Implications for earthquake recurrence, fault slip rate, and seismic hazard assessment in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mcauliffe, L. J.; Dolan, J. F.; Hubbard, J.; Shaw, J. H.; Pratt, T. L.; Rhodes, E. J.

    2013-12-01

    New borehole, high-resolution seismic reflection, and geochronologic data reveal the ages and displacements of the two most recent large-magnitude earthquakes on the Ventura fault, the central segment of a large, multi-fault reverse fault system that extends for >200 km along the southern edge of the central and western Transverse Ranges fault system. Based on geomorphology and analysis of high-resolution seismic data acquired in 2010, we drilled 17 hollow stem auger boreholes and cone penetrometer tests along two transects across the locus of most recent folding above the Ventura fault. At Day Road in downtown Ventura, our 23-m-deep boreholes revealed a well-bedded alluvial section with many units that are traceable continuously along the entire 375 m length of the transect. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that the prominent topographic scarp at this site records ~6 m of uplift during fold growth in the most-recent earthquake on the underlying Ventura blind thrust ramp. Similarly, sedimentary growth observed in the borehole cross section indicates ~4.5 m of growth during the penultimate event, with an event horizon located at the base of a growth interval between 4 and 8.5 m depth south of the scarp. Six 14C and 14 OSL ages collected from the four hollow-stem auger boreholes at this site constrain the timing of the two most recent events on the Ventura blind thrust fault to post-2900 B.P. and 4700 × 350 to 5460 × 330 years before present; dating of additional shallow luminescence samples should help narrow the age range of the MRE. The large amounts of uplift in the two folding events indicate that they formed in response to large-displacement, and therefore large-magnitude earthquakes, likely involving rupture of the Ventura fault together with thrust ramps to both the west (e.g., Pitas Point fault) and east (Southern San Cayetano and eastern San Cayetano faults). These thrust faults form the middle section of a >200-km-long, east-west belt of large, interconnected reverse faults that extends along the southern edge of the Transverse Ranges. Although each of these faults represents a major seismic source in its own right, we are exploring the possibility of even larger-magnitude, multi-segment ruptures that may link these faults to other major faults to the east and west. The proximity of this large reverse-fault system to several major population centers, including the metropolitan Los Angeles region, and the potential for tsunami generation during offshore ruptures of the western parts of the system, emphasize the importance of understanding the behavior of these faults for seismic hazard assessment.

  4. Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

    1995-01-01

    Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

  5. Processed seismic motion records from Landers, California earthquake of June 28, 1992, recorded at seismograph stations in southern Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-04-01

    As part of the contract with the US Department of Energy, Nevada Field office (DOE/NV), URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume) maintains a network of seismographs in southern Nevada to monitor the ground motion generated by the underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismographs are located in the communities surrounding the NTS and the Las Vegas valley. When these seismographs are not used for monitoring the UNE generated motions, a limited number of seismographs are maintained for monitoring motion generated by other than UNEs (e.g. motion generated by earthquakes, wind, blast). During the subject earthquake of June 28, 1992, a total of 19 of these systems recorded the earthquake motions. This report contains the recorded data.

  6. Processed seismic motion records from Big Bear, California earthquake of June 28, 1992, recorded at seismograph stations in southern Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Lum, P.K.; Honda, K.K.

    1993-04-01

    As part of the contract with the US Department of Energy, Nevada Field office (DOE/NV), URS/John A. Blume & Associates, Engineers (URS/Blume) maintains a network of seismographs in southern Nevada to monitor the ground motion generated by the underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The seismographs are located in the communities surrounding the NTS and the Las Vegas valley. When these seismographs are not used for monitoring the UNE generated motions, a limited number of seismographs are maintained for monitoring motion generated by other than UNEs (e.g. motion generated by earthquakes, wind, blast). During the subject earthquake of June 28, 1992, a total of 15 of these systems recorded the earthquake motions. This report contains the recorded data.

  7. Earthquakes and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  8. Fault systems of the 1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, southern California: Relocated aftershocks and seismic images from LARSE II

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fuis, G.S.; Clayton, R.W.; Davis, P.M.; Ryberg, T.; Lutter, W.J.; Okaya, D.A.; Hauksson, E.; Prodehl, C.; Murphy, J.M.; Benthien, M.L.; Baher, S.A.; Kohler, M.D.; Thygesen, K.; Simila, G.; Keller, Gordon R.

    2003-01-01

    We have constructed a composite image of the fault systems of the M 6.7 San Fernando (1971) and Northridge (1994), California, earthquakes, using industry reflection and oil test well data in the upper few kilometers of the crust, relocated aftershocks in the seismogenic crust, and LARSE II (Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment, Phase II) reflection data in the middle and lower crust. In this image, the San Fernando fault system appears to consist of a decollement that extends 50 km northward at a dip of ???25?? from near the surface at the Northridge Hills fault, in the northern San Fernando Valley, to the San Andreas fault in the middle to lower crust. It follows a prominent aseismic reflective zone below and northward of the main-shock hypocenter. Interpreted upward splays off this decollement include the Mission Hills and San Gabriel faults and the two main rupture planes of the San Fernando earthquake, which appear to divide the hanging wall into shingle- or wedge-like blocks. In contrast, the fault system for the Northridge earthquake appears simple, at least east of the LARSE II transect, consisting of a fault that extends 20 km southward at a dip of ???33?? from ???7 km depth beneath the Santa Susana Mountains, where it abuts the interpreted San Fernando decollement, to ???20 km depth beneath the Santa Monica Mountains. It follows a weak aseismic reflective zone below and southward of the mainshock hypocenter. The middle crustal reflective zone along the interpreted San Fernando decollement appears similar to a reflective zone imaged beneath the San Gabriel Mountains along the LARSE I transect, to the east, in that it appears to connect major reverse or thrust faults in the Los Angeles region to the San Andreas fault. However, it differs in having a moderate versus a gentle dip and in containing no mid-crustal bright reflections.

  9. Description of earthquake sequences using complex network theory: the cases of Italy (L'Aquila, 2009) and Southern California (Baja, 2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalaki, E.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Minadakis, G.; Spiliotis, K.; Siettos, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complex networks pertain to the structure of many real-world systems influencing their dynamics. Earthquakes are a highly complex natural process that develops in the space-time-size domains given that the state of the seismogenic layer of the Earth is characterized by self-organized criticality. Over the last years, complex network theory was tested as a tool to quantify the topological characteristics of seismic activity aiming to investigate possible correlation patterns between earthquakes. With the aid of complex network theory, we have analyzed foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the mainshocks of L'Aquila (Italy), 6th April 2009, Mw=6.3, and of Baja (Southern California) 4th April 2010, Mw=7.2. After testing the catalogues for data completeness on the basis of the magnitude-frequency relationship, we selected magnitude cut-off of 1.3 and 1.0, respectively. We constructed the underlying network that describes the evolution of the two sequences in space and extracted the statistical properties of the underlying topology resulting in characteristic scale-free and small-world structures. We found that the corresponding earthquake networks form a scale-free degree distribution and we computed their basic statistical measures, such as the Average Clustering Coefficient, Mean Path Length and Entropy. Taking into account a spatio-temporal sensitivity analysis, we found that the statistical measures of the two networks change considerably before and after the two main shocks, thus underlying the space-time clustering of the sequences. Our findings are in agreement with the ones obtained by using well established classical methods of statistical seismology. Thus, we believe that the proposed approach has the potential to serve as a supplementary or stand-alone methodology towards the better assessment of seismicity clusters

  10. Seismic and aseismic deformation associated with the 1952 Kern County, California, earthquake and relationship to the quaternary history of the White Wolf fault

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, R.S.; Thatcher, W.

    1981-06-10

    Synthesis of geodetic, and seismic data from the White Wolf fault, California, indicates that the fault separates an area of late Quaternary and continuing rapid uplift in the Tehachapi Mountains and Transverse Ranges from even more rapid subsidence in the southern San Joaquin Valley. On July 21, 1952, rupture of the White Wolf fault produced the M/sub L/ = 7.2 Kern County earthquake. We used the aftershock zone to delimit the size of the faulted slip surface and applied constraints imposed by the known 1952--1953 horizontal shear strains to model the measured coseismic vertical displacements, with an elastic dislocation model. A curved fault trace with decreasing fault depth (27 to 10 km from the surface vertically to the base), slip (3 to 1 m), and dip (75/sup 0/ to 20/sup 0/) from the 1952 epicenter at the southwest end of the fault toward the northeast provides the fit most consistent with the geodetic record, the measured seismic moment, the fault-plane solution, and the pattern of surface rupture. Two short releveled lines near the 1952 epicenter tilted 4 and 17 ..mu..rad down to the north from 5--10 years before the earthquake; the preseismic tilts differ significantly from ten other surveys of these lines. Left-lateral fault-crossing shear strain from 0.2--20 years before the quake was two times greater than both preseismic off-fault strains and the post-seismic fault-crossing strains. During the first seven years after the earthquake, aseismic deformation was negligible. From 1959 to 1972 uplift reached 160 mm over an area larger than the aftershock zone, rising first in the epicentral region and then at the northeast end of the fault. This was unaccompanied by any surface fault slip. Reconstruction of the vertical separation on the White Wolf fault from late Quaternary and late Miocene stratigraphic marker beds.

  11. Liquefaction Hazard Maps for Three Earthquake Scenarios for the Communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale, Northern Santa Clara County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. The area includes the communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale. The probability curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M7.8 on the San Andreas Fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M6.7 on the Hayward Fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M6.9 on the Calaveras Fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5-m deep water table is assumed, and 0.10 to 0.14 if a 5-m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.

  12. Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  13. A reevaluation of the Pallett Creek earthquake chronology based on new AMS radiocarbon dates, San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scharer, K.M.; Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J., II

    2011-01-01

    The Pallett Creek paleoseismic record occupies a keystone position in most attempts to develop rupture histories for the southern San Andreas fault. Previous estimates of earthquake ages at Pallett Creek were determined by decay counting radiocarbon methods. That method requires large samples which can lead to unaccounted sources of uncertainty in radiocarbon ages because of the heterogeneous composition of organic layers. In contrast, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates may be obtained from small samples that have known carbon sources and also allow for a more complete sampling of the section. We present 65 new AMS radiocarbon dates that span nine ground-rupturing earthquakes at Pallett Creek. Overall, the AMS dates are similar to and reveal no dramatic bias in the conventional dates. For many layers, however, individual charcoal samples were younger than the conventional dates, leading to earthquake ages that are overall slightly younger than previously reported. New earthquake ages are determined by Bayesian refinement of the layer ages based on stratigraphic ordering and sedimentological constraints. The new chronology is more regular than previously published records in large part due to new samples constraining the age of event R. The closed interval from event C to 1857 has a mean recurrence of 135years (?? = 83.2 years) and a quasiperiodic coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.61. We show that the new dates and resultant earthquake chronology have a stronger effect on COV than the specific membership of this long series and dating precision improvements from sedimentation rates. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ogata, Y.; Jones, L.M.; Toda, S.

    2003-01-01

    Seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake. However, sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity. We apply the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that is a natural extension of the modified Omori formula for aftershock decay, allowing further clusters (secondary aftershocks) within an aftershock sequence. The Hector Mine aftershock activity has been normal, relative to the decay predicted by the ETAS model during the 14 months of available data. In contrast, although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3), including the 1992 Big Bear earthquake (M = 6.4) and its aftershocks, fits very well to the ETAS up until about 6 months after the main shock, the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate (relative quiescence) and lasted nearly 7 years, leading up to the Hector Mine earthquake (M = 7.1) in 1999. Specifically, the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity, down to depths of 5-6 km. The sequence of deeper events showed clear, normal aftershock activity well fitted to the ETAS throughout the whole period. We argue several physical explanations for these results. Among them, we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the Hector Mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within "shadow zones" of the Coulomb's failure stress change. Furthermore, the aftershock activity of the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake (M = 6.1) sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock, which can be explained by a similar scenario.

  15. Estimated airborne release of plutonium from the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California, as a result of damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard

    SciTech Connect

    Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.; Hays, I.D.

    1980-12-01

    This report estimates the potential airborne releases of plutonium as a consequence of various severities of earthquake and wind hazard postulated for the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center in California. The releases are based on damage scenarios developed by other specialists. The hazard severities presented range up to a nominal velocity of 230 mph for wind hazard and are in excess of 0.8 g linear acceleration for earthquakes. The consequences of thrust faulting are considered. The approaches and factors used to estimate the releases are discussed. Release estimates range from 0.003 to 3 g Pu.

  16. Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mourhatch, Ramses

    This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

  17. Predicted Surface Displacements for Scenario Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murray-Moraleda, Jessica R.

    2008-01-01

    In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be called upon to provide information on the characteristics of the event to emergency responders and the media. One such piece of information is the expected surface displacement due to the earthquake. In conducting probabilistic hazard analyses for the San Francisco Bay Region, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) identified a series of scenario earthquakes involving the major faults of the region, and these were used in their 2003 report (hereafter referred to as WG03) and the recently released 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Here I present a collection of maps depicting the expected surface displacement resulting from those scenario earthquakes. The USGS has conducted frequent Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys throughout northern California for nearly two decades, generating a solid baseline of interseismic measurements. Following an earthquake, temporary GPS deployments at these sites will be important to augment the spatial coverage provided by continuous GPS sites for recording postseismic deformation, as will the acquisition of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) scenes. The information provided in this report allows one to anticipate, for a given event, where the largest displacements are likely to occur. This information is valuable both for assessing the need for further spatial densification of GPS coverage before an event and prioritizing sites to resurvey and InSAR data to acquire in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. In addition, these maps are envisioned to be a resource for scientists in communicating with emergency responders and members of the press, particularly during the time immediately after a major earthquake before displacements recorded by continuous GPS stations are available.

  18. A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake, ML = 5.2, 1975, Mojave desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fuis, G.S.; Lindh, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    A marked change is observed in P/SV amplitude ratios, measured at station TPC, from foreshocks to aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake. This change is interpreted to be the result of a change in fault-plane orientation occurring between foreshocks and aftershocks. The Galway Lake earthquake, ML= 5.2, occurred on June 1, 1975. The first-motion fault-plane solutions for the main shock and most foreshocks and aftershocks indicate chiefly right-lateral strike-slip on NNW-striking planes that dip steeply, 70-90??, to the WSW. The main event was preceded by nine located foreshocks, ranging in magnitude from 1.9 to 3.4, over a period of 12 weeks, starting on March 9, 1975. All of the foreshocks form a tight cluster approximately 1 km in diameter. This cluster includes the main shock. Aftershocks are distributed over a 6-km-long fault zone, but only those that occurred inside the foreshock cluster are used in this study. Seismograms recorded at TPC (?? = 61 km), PEC (?? = 93 km), and CSP (?? = 83 km) are the data used here. The seismograms recorded at TPC show very consistent P/SV amplitude ratios for foreshocks. For aftershocks the P/SV ratios are scattered, but generally quite different from foreshock ratios. Most of the scatter for the aftershocks is confined to the two days following the main shock. Thereafter, however, the P/SV ratios are consistently half as large as for foreshocks. More subtle (and questionable) changes in the P/SV ratios are observed at PEC and CSP. Using theoretical P/SV amplitude ratios, one can reproduce the observations at TPC, PEC and CSP by invoking a 5-12?? counterclockwise change in fault strike between foreshocks and aftershocks. This interpretation is not unique, but it fits the data better than invoking, for example, changes in dip or slip angle. First-motion data cannot resolve this small change, but they permit it. Attenuation changes would appear to be ruled out by the fact that changes in the amplitude ratios, PTPC/PPEC and ptpc/pcsp, are observed, and these changes accompany the changes in P/SV. Observations for the Galway Lake earthquake are similar to observations for the Oroville, California, earthquake (ML = 5.7) of August 1, 1975, and the Brianes Hills, California, earthquake (ML = 4.3) of January 8, 1977 (Lindh et al., Science Vol. 201, pp. 56-59). A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks may be understandable in terms of early en-echelon cracking (foreshocks) giving way to shear on the main fault plane (main shock plus aftershocks). Recent laboratory data (Byerlee et al., Tectonophysics, Vol. 44, pp. 161-171) tend to support this view. ?? 1979.

  19. A seismic landslide susceptibility rating of geologic units based on analysis of characterstics of landslides triggered by the 17 January, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parise, M.; Jibson, R.W.

    2000-01-01

    One of the most significant effects of the 17 January, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M=6.7) was the triggering of thousands of landslides over a broad area. Some of these landslides damaged and destroyed homes and other tructures, blocked roads, disrupted pipelines, and caused other serious damage. Analysis of the distribution and characteristics of these landslides is important in understanding what areas may be susceptible to landsliding in future earthquakes. We analyzed the frequency, distribution, and geometries of triggered landslides in the Santa Susana 7.5??? quadrangle, an area of intense seismic landslide activity near the earthquake epicenter. Landslides occured primarily in young (Late Miocene through Pleistocene) uncemented or very weakly cemented sediment that has been repeatedly folded, faulted, and uplifted in the past 1.5 million years. The most common types of landslide triggered by the earthquake were highly disrupted, shallow falls and slides of rock and debris. Far less numerous were deeper, more coherent slumps and block slides, primarily occuring in more cohesive or competent materials. The landslides in the Santa Susana quadrangle were divided into two samples: single landslides (1502) and landslide complexes (60), which involved multiple coalescing failures of surficial material. We described landslide, morphologies by computing simple morphometric parameters (area, length, width, aspect ratio, slope angle). To quantify and rank the relative susceptibility of each geologic unit to seismic landsliding, we calculated two indices: (1) the susceptibility index, which is the ratio (given as a percentage) of the area covered by landslide sources within a geologic unit to the total outcrop area of that unit: and (2) the frequency index [given in landslides per square kilometer (ls/km2)], which is the total number of landslides within each geologic unit divided by the outcrop area of that unit. Susceptibility categories include very high (>2.5% landslide area or >30 1s/km2). high (1.0-2.5% landslide area or 10-30 1s/km2), moderate (0.5-1.0% landslide area or 3-10 1s/km2), and low (<0.5% landslide area and <3 1s/km2). ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. On the resolution of shallow mantle viscosity structure using post-earthquake relaxation data: Application to the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pollitz, Fred F.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

    2010-01-01

    Most models of lower crust/mantle viscosity inferred from postearthquake relaxation assume one or two uniform-viscosity layers. A few existing models possess apparently significant radially variable viscosity structure in the shallow mantle (e.g., the upper 200 km), but the resolution of such variations is not clear. We use a geophysical inverse procedure to address the resolving power of inferred shallow mantle viscosity structure using postearthquake relaxation data. We apply this methodology to 9 years of GPS-constrained crustal motions after the 16 October 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. After application of a differencing method to isolate the postearthquake signal from the “background” crustal velocity field, we find that surface velocities diminish from ?20 mm/yr in the first few months to ?2 mm/yr after 2 years. Viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle, with a time-dependent effective viscosity prescribed by a Burgers body, provides a good explanation for the postseismic crustal deformation, capturing both the spatial and temporal pattern. In the context of the Burgers body model (which involves a transient viscosity and steady state viscosity), a resolution analysis based on the singular value decomposition reveals that at most, two constraints on depth-dependent steady state mantle viscosity are provided by the present data set. Uppermost mantle viscosity (depth ? 60 km) is moderately resolved, but deeper viscosity structure is poorly resolved. The simplest model that explains the data better than that of uniform steady state mantle viscosity involves a linear gradient in logarithmic viscosity with depth, with a small increase from the Moho to 220 km depth. However, the viscosity increase is not statistically significant. This suggests that the depth-dependent steady state viscosity is not resolvably different from uniformity in the uppermost mantle.

  1. Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Fire, Police, Transportation and Hazardous Materials

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Anne, Craig, (Edited By); Scawthorn, Charles R.

    1994-01-01

    The papers in this chapter discuss some of the failures and successes that resulted from the societal response by a multitude of agencies to the Loma Prieta earthquake. Some of the lessons learned were old ones relearned. Other lessons were obvious ones which had gone unnoticed. Still, knowledge gained from past earthquakes spawned planning and mitigation efforts which proved to be successful in limiting the aftermath effects of the Loma Prieta event. At least four major areas of response are presented in this chapter: the Oakland Police Department response to the challenge of controlled access to the Cypress freeway collapse area without inhibiting relief and recovery efforts; search and rescue of the freeway collapse and the monumental crisis management problem that accompanied it; the short- and long-term impact on transbay transportation systems to move a large work force from home to business; and the handling of hazardous material releases throughout the Bay Area.

  2. Chapter D. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Earth Structures and Engineering Characterization of Ground Motion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.

    1998-01-01

    This chapter contains two papers that summarize the performance of engineered earth structures, dams and stabilized excavations in soil, and two papers that characterize for engineering purposes the attenuation of ground motion with distance during the Loma Prieta earthquake. Documenting the field performance of engineered structures and confirming empirically based predictions of ground motion are critical for safe and cost effective seismic design of future structures as well as the retrofitting of existing ones.

  3. The 1999 (Mw 7.1) Hector Mine, California, Earthquake: Near-Field Postseismic Deformation from ERS Interferometry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobs, Allison; Sandwell, David; Fialko, Yuri; Sichoix, Lydie

    2002-01-01

    Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data over the area of the Hector Mine earthquake (Mw 7.1, 16 October 1999) reveal postseismic deformation of several centimeters over a spatial scale of 0.5 to 50 km. We analyzed seven SAR acquisitions to form interferograms over four time periods after the event. The main deformations seen in the line-of-sight (LOS) displacement maps are a region of subsidence (60 mm LOS increase) on the northern end of the fault, a region of uplift (45 mm LOS decrease) located to the northeast of the primary fault bend, and a linear trough running along the main rupture having a depth of up to 15 mm and a width of about 2 km. We correlate these features with a double left-bending, rightlateral, strike-slip fault that exhibits contraction on the restraining side and extension along the releasing side of the fault bends. The temporal variations in the near-fault postseismic deformation are consistent with a characteristic time scale of 135 + 42 or - 25 days, which is similar to the relaxation times following the 1992 Landers earthquake. High gradients in the LOS displacements occur on the fault trace, consistent with afterslip on the earthquake rupture. We derive an afterslip model by inverting the LOS data from both the ascending and descending orbits. Our model indicates that much of the afterslip occurs at depths of less than 3 to 4 km.

  4. Displaced rocks, strong motion, and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Ross, S.L.; Stenner, H.D.

    2002-01-01

    The paucity of strong-motion stations near the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake makes it impossible to make instrumental studies of key questions about near-fault strong-motion patterns associated with this event. However, observations of displaced rocks allow a qualitative investigation of these problems. By observing the slope of the desert surface and the frictional coefficient between these rocks and the desert surface, we estimate the minimum horizontal acceleration needed to displace the rocks. Combining this information with observations of how many rocks were displaced in different areas near the fault, we infer the level of shaking. Given current empirical shaking attenuation relationships, the number of rocks that moved is slightly lower than expected; this implies that slightly lower than expected shaking occurred during the Hector Mine earthquake. Perhaps more importantly, stretches of the fault with 4 m of total displacement at the surface displaced few nearby rocks on 15?? slopes, suggesting that the horizontal accelerations were below 0.2g within meters of the fault scarp. This low level of shaking suggests that the shallow parts of this rupture did not produce strong accelerations. Finally, we did not observe an increased incidence of displaced rocks along the fault zone itself. This suggests that, despite observations of fault-zone-trapped waves generated by aftershocks of the Hector Mine earthquake, such waves were not an important factor in controlling peak ground acceleration during the mainshock.

  5. Breaks in Pavement and Pipes as Indicators of Range-Front Faulting Resulting from the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake near the Southwest Margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmidt, Kevin M.; Ellen, Stephen D.; Haugerud, Ralph A.; Peterson, David M.; Phelps, Geoffery A.

    1995-01-01

    Damage to pavement and near-surface utility pipes, caused by the October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake, provide indicators for ground deformation in a 663 km2 area near the southwest margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California. The spatial distribution of 1284 sites of such damage documents the extent and distribution of detectable ground deformation. Damage was concentrated in four zones, three of which are near previously mapped faults. The zone through Los Gatos showed the highest concentration of damage, as well as evidence for pre- and post-earthquake deformation. Damage along the foot of the Santa Cruz Mountains reflected shortening that is consistent with movement along reverse faults in the region and with the hypothesis that tectonic strain is distributed widely across numerous faults in the California Coast Ranges.

  6. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method: a Bayesian approach to earthquake early Georgia Cua1

    E-print Network

    Heaton, Thomas H.

    density using ground motions recorded from the M = 4.75 Yorba Linda, California earthquake, and with low station density using data from the M = 7.1 Hector Mine, California earthquake. The examples shown

  7. Character and origins of ground rupturing and ground deformation during the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake (as well as the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes). Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.M.

    1996-09-17

    The overall objective of the research has been to understand the form and significance of surface rupture produced by earthquakes. Specific objectives are to describe fracturing and other manifestations of broad belts of ground rupture during the Landers earthquake and to mechanically analyze the structures that form along the belts. The author has learned much about ground rupture during earthquakes, even though he has studied only three earthquakes to date: Loma Prieta, Landers and Northridge.

  8. Earthquake Early Warning: Real-time Testing of an On-site Method Using Waveform Data from the Southern California Seismic Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solanki, K.; Hauksson, E.; Kanamori, H.; Wu, Y.; Heaton, T.; Boese, M.

    2007-12-01

    We have implemented an on-site early warning algorithm using the infrastructure of the Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN). We are evaluating the real-time performance of the software system and the algorithm for rapid assessment of earthquakes. In addition, we are interested in understanding what parts of the SCSN need to be improved to make early warning practical. Our EEW processing system is composed of many independent programs that process waveforms in real-time. The codes were generated by using a software framework. The Pd (maximum displacement amplitude of P wave during the first 3sec) and Tau-c (a period parameter during the first 3 sec) values determined during the EEW processing are being forwarded to the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) web page for independent evaluation of the results. The on-site algorithm measures the amplitude of the P-wave (Pd) and the frequency content of the P-wave during the first three seconds (Tau-c). The Pd and the Tau-c values make it possible to discriminate between a variety of events such as large distant events, nearby small events, and potentially damaging nearby events. The Pd can be used to infer the expected maximum ground shaking. The method relies on data from a single station although it will become more reliable if readings from several stations are associated. To eliminate false triggers from stations with high background noise level, we have created per station Pd threshold configuration for the Pd/Tau-c algorithm. To determine appropriate values for the Pd threshold we calculate Pd thresholds for stations based on the information from the EEW logs. We have operated our EEW test system for about a year and recorded numerous earthquakes in the magnitude range from M3 to M5. Two recent examples are a M4.5 earthquake near Chatsworth and a M4.7 earthquake near Elsinore. In both cases, the Pd and Tau-c parameters were determined successfully within 10 to 20 sec of the arrival of the P-wave at the station. The Tau-c values predicted the magnitude within 0.1 and the predicted average peak-ground-motion was 0.7 cm/s and 0.6 cm/s. The delays in the system are caused mostly by the packetizing delay because our software system is based on processing miniseed packets. Most recently we have begun reducing the data latency using new qmaserv2 software for the Q330 Quanterra datalogger. We implemented qmaserv2 based multicast receiver software to receive the native 1 sec packets from the dataloggers. The receiver reads multicast packets from the network and writes them into shared memory area. This new software will fully take advantage of the capabilities of the Q330 datalogger and significantly reduce data latency for EEW system. We have also implemented a new EEW sub-system that compliments the currently running EEW system by associating Pd and Tau-c values from multiple stations. So far, we have implemented a new trigger generation algorithm for real-time processing for the sub-system, and are able to routinely locate events and determine magnitudes using the Pd and Tau-c values.

  9. Simulated ground motion in Santa Clara Valley, California, and vicinity from M?6.7 scenario earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harmsen, Stephen C.; Hartzell, Stephen

    2008-01-01

    Models of the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) 3D velocity structure and 3D finite-difference software are used to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas (SAF), Monte Vista/Shannon, South Hayward, and Calaveras faults. Twenty different scenario ruptures are considered that explore different source models with alternative hypocenters, fault dimensions, and rupture velocities and three different velocity models. Ground motion from the full wave field up to 1 Hz is exhibited as maps of peak horizontal velocity and pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 1, 3, and 5 sec. Basin edge effects and amplification in sedimentary basins of the SCV are observed that exhibit effects from shallow sediments with relatively low shear-wave velocity (330 m/sec). Scenario earthquakes have been simulated for events with the following magnitudes: (1) M 6.8–7.4 Calaveras sources, (2) M 6.7–6.9 South Hayward sources, (3) M 6.7 Monte Vista/Shannon sources, and (4) M 7.1–7.2 Peninsula segment of the SAF sources. Ground motions are strongly influenced by source parameters such as rupture velocity, rise time, maximum depth of rupture, hypocenter, and source directivity. Cenozoic basins also exert a strong influence on ground motion. For example, the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the SCV is especially responsive to 3–5-sec energy from most scenario earthquakes. The Cupertino Basin on the southwestern edge of the SCV tends to be highly excited by many Peninsula and Monte Vista fault scenarios. Sites over the interior of the Evergreen Basin can have long-duration coda that reflect the trapping of seismic energy within this basin. Plausible scenarios produce predominantly 5-sec wave trains with greater than 30 cm/sec sustained ground-motion amplitude with greater than 30 sec duration within the Evergreen Basin.

  10. Reinvestigating the Mission Creek Fault: Holocene slip rates in the northern Coachella Valley and implications for southern California earthquake hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wersan, Louis Samuel

    Near San Gorgonio Pass the San Andreas fault zone encounters a structural knot which causes strain to be distributed regionally onto the San Jacinto fault and Eastern California Shear Zone and locally onto a series of evolving fault strands. Each strand was activated and subsequently abandoned as it became locked; current interpretations show that the Mission Creek fault was the dominant strand in the early Pleistocene before being abandoned in favor of the presently active Banning fault. Recent slip rate investigations along the Mission Creek fault have challenged this interpretation, however, and motivate new studies into strain distribution through San Gorgonio Pass and mechanisms of strain transfer to the Eastern California Shear Zone. It is therefore essential to establish an accurate Holocene slip rate on the Mission Creek fault and revisit current interpretations of San Andreas fault zone kinematics. In support of this goal, detailed fault and quaternary unit mapping was conducted in two field areas along the Mission Creek fault in the northern Coachella Valley. Separated by ˜3 km, the two field areas allow for characterization of along-strike changes in Mission Creek fault behavior and interaction with regional faults. Nineteen samples were collected from dextrally offset landforms for Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclide (TCN) dating. TCN dating measures the total concentration of in situ produced 10Be, which is proportional to exposure age of the surface. TCN surface dates therefore provide the age constraint for accurate Holocene-Late Quaternary slip rate analysis. Dated surfaces within Big Morongo Canyon field area yield preliminary TCN ages of 8 ka and 20 ka in